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Strategy (NASDAQ:MSTR | MSTR Price Prediction), the bitcoin treasury juggernaut formerly known as MicroStrategy, currently trades near $119.25. Benchmark analyst Mark Palmer’s active price target sits at $435, implying roughly 265% upside from here.

The company holds 846,000 BTC as of Q2 2026, layered atop a legacy enterprise analytics software business. Strategy has become a leveraged bitcoin proxy, with shares moving harder than the coin in both directions.

Palmer recently cut his target from $570 while keeping his Buy rating intact, yet even the trimmed number implies a triple from current levels. Either the market is badly mispricing this name, or Palmer is badly early.

Bitcoin’s Slide Cratered Strategy’s Balance Sheet Q2 2026 delivered an $8.32 billion unrealized loss on digital assets, driving a net loss of $8.22 billion and reported EPS of -$24.45 against a $3.0743 consensus. Revenue of $122.4 million came in roughly in line, up 6.9% year over year.

Under fair-value accounting, every bitcoin drawdown flows through the income statement in real time. Bitcoin has fallen 11.58% year to date, trading near $77,365, and Strategy carries its coins at $49.7 billion against a $63.9 billion cost basis. Shares are down 21.52% year to date and 64.68% over one year, well beyond bitcoin’s own decline.

Retail sentiment has turned hostile. One widely upvoted wallstreetbets post argued MSTR heads to $40 in eight to twelve weeks. That is the backdrop against which Palmer is still writing up the stock.

Palmer’s Leverage Engine Thesis Survives the Cut Palmer’s revised $435 target leaves Benchmark the loudest bull. His model treats Strategy as an actively managed Bitcoin leverage engine that can structurally trade above the net asset value of its coins because of capital markets execution that spot ETFs cannot replicate.

Strategy grew bitcoin holdings 11% in Q2 while cutting convertible debt 18% to $6.7 billion. Management raised the STRC preferred dividend to 12.00% annualized and built the USD Reserve to $3.75 billion, covering more than two years of preferred dividend and interest obligations. CEO Phong Le said the company “strengthened our balance sheet while navigating a meaningful bitcoin price decline.”

Of 15 covering analysts, 2 rate the stock Strong Buy, 12 Buy, and 1 Hold, with no Sell ratings. The consensus target of $229.07 implies roughly 92% upside. Palmer’s number requires bitcoin to normalize and the reflexive premium mechanism to reassert itself. Management’s stated goal is “to double your Bitcoin per share, right, over seven years,” making this thesis explicitly multi-year.

MSTR Stands Out Inside a Battered Crypto Group Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN) trades at $186.49 versus a consensus target of $194.97, implying 4.5% upside, with the stock down 17.53% year to date. Ratings tilt Buy, with 22 of 34 analysts positive, but revisions turned cautious after Q2 revenue slid 18.5% on collapsing trading volumes.

Marathon Digital (NASDAQ:MARA) sits at $11.28 against a $17.99 consensus target for roughly 59% upside. Shares are up 25.39% year to date on the AI data center pivot and a Texas 2 GW site deal. Eight of 13 covering analysts rate MARA Buy or better.

Riot Platforms (NASDAQ:RIOT) trades at $19.82 with a $32.40 target, worth around 63% upside. Riot’s 20-year, 191 MW AI data center lease has propelled shares 56.51% higher year to date, and 20 of 21 covering analysts are positive.

Across the group, MSTR carries the largest implied analyst upside by a wide margin. That reflects how deeply the market has discounted Strategy’s leverage stack.

How Far MSTR Has Fallen Behind the Market Strategy trades near $119.25, versus a consensus target of $229.07 and Palmer’s $435. The 52-week range runs from $81.81 to $365.21, with the stock well below its 200-day moving average of $143.95.

Fifteen analysts cover the name: 2 Strong Buy, 12 Buy, 1 Hold, and no Sell ratings. Shares are down 21.52% year to date and off 64.68% over the trailing year. Over the same period, the S&P 500 is up 12.29% year to date and 20.48% over one year, a rare mismatch for a high-beta name (beta near 3.55).

Where I Come Down on Strategy Here The bull case works if bitcoin’s drawdown is cyclical rather than a regime change, and if Strategy retains capital markets access to issue digital credit on favorable terms. Palmer’s leverage engine reprices as bitcoin recovers, the STRC preferred trades back near par, and both the $229 consensus and $435 Benchmark case become live. Bitcoin per share, up 5% in Q2 alone, is the metric to watch.

The bear case holds if the market is right that a $6.7 billion convertible stack, $400.7 million in Q2 preferred dividends, and mark-to-market accounting on nearly $14 billion of underwater bitcoin are fragile. If bitcoin grinds lower and equity markets close, the amplification math runs in reverse.

My lean is cautiously constructive. Palmer’s $435 requires nearly everything to go right. The $229 consensus does not. For investors who already own bitcoin exposure, Strategy functions as the leverage trade layered on top. For those without direct bitcoin exposure, the coin itself is the more straightforward vehicle.

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

Listen to the audio version of this article (generated by AI).

The public’s data-center revolt spreads… even Texas taps the brakes… will it kill the AI trade?… why the move is “sort,” not “sell” The public really hates data centers – but that could make you a lot of money.

Last month, I introduced an analytical framework I called “The Messy Middle” – the idea that AI won’t force us to choose between good and bad outcomes, but between two legitimate “goods” vying for priority. We won’t be able to have both in equal measure at the same time.

One example we profiled came from New York, where Gov. Kathy Hochul became the first governor to sign a law pausing the construction of new hyperscale AI data centers.

She gave up the “goods” of longer-term productivity gains, jobs, and the bigger tax base that those data centers would have delivered…in exchange for the “goods” of holding down electricity prices, protecting natural resources from potential pollution, and shielding communities from disruption.

Not right or wrong – simply a prioritization.

Now, this anti-data-center backlash isn’t limited to New York. It’s gathering momentum across the country at the very moment AI usage at home and at the office is accelerating, driving enormous demand for the very same data centers those communities are fighting.

That’s the Messy Middle setting up on a national scale. And while it could create real social tensions, it could also be incredibly lucrative for investors who know where to look.

Here’s our global macro investment expert, Eric Fry, to explain:

When new capacity becomes harder to build, existing capacity becomes more valuable.

And companies that already have the land, power and facilities needed for AI data centers could be sitting on valuable real estate – literally.

One company cashing in on the Messy Middle of AI’s infrastructure needs Last week, Anthropic reportedly signed a 20-year, $9.1 billion deal with Riot Platforms, Inc. (RIOT) for 191 megawatts of data-center capacity at Riot’s Rockdale, Texas, campus.

Riot expects the deal to generate about $9.1 billion through 2048, with an option that could push the total value to $16.1 billion. The capacity is expected to be delivered in phases, beginning in 2026 and continuing through 2028.

Back to Eric:

The key here is that Riot doesn’t have to start from scratch.

The company, best known as a bitcoin miner, already has the land, power and infrastructure needed to support a data center.

So, instead of using all of that capacity for bitcoin mining, it can lease it to AI companies, like Anthropic.

As politicians and voters battle over the Messy Middle, companies like Riot that bypass these political and administrative bottlenecks stand to benefit.

Beyond RIOT, check out Core Scientific (CORZ). It holds massive, pre-existing gigawatt-scale power infrastructure and has been a pioneer in signing long-term, high-performance computing contracts with hyperscalers.

There’s also CleanSpark (CLSK), which commands a broad pipeline of powered industrial sites with approved grid connections. These sites can be retrofitted for AI data workloads or alternative compute.

The thread connecting all three stocks is the same: each one already owns something that’s suddenly become scarce – power, land, and grid access that would take years and a bruising permitting fight to assemble from scratch today.

But these infrastructure landlords are only the first rung on the AI opportunity ladder. There are plenty more rungs.

Think about everything it takes to turn a powered site into a working AI data center You need the electricity itself, which points to power generators… You need to move that electricity, which points to transformers, substations, and transmission gear… You need to keep the chips from cooking themselves, which points to industrial-scale cooling… You need firms to design and build the facilities… And, of course, there’s everything that goes inside – the semiconductors and memory that do the actual computing.

Every one of those rungs is its own bottleneck. And every bottleneck is its own opportunity.

That’s a lot of ground for any single investor to cover, which is exactly why Eric, alongside Louis Navellier of Growth Investor and Luke Lango of Innovation Investor, have spent recent weeks covering it for you.

The three of them have rebuilt their collective AI Revolution Portfolio from the ground up – designing it to capture multiple rungs of that ladder rather than bet everything on a single stock or sector.

Our three experts first assembled this portfolio of elite AI stocks in 2023, then rebalanced it at the end of 2024 as the AI race shifted. And they see this moment – where a single infrastructure bottleneck is spilling opportunity across a dozen industries – as the next pivot point.

They’re pulling back the curtain tomorrow morning at 10:00 a.m. Eastern, when they’ll unveil their rebuilt portfolio and walk through exactly how they’re positioning for AI’s next phase.

Back to Eric:

The AI Revolution has created an enormous number of potential investment opportunities. But the more this technology spreads, the harder it becomes to know which companies deserve your attention – and, just as importantly, which don’t.

That’s what tomorrow is about – separating the best opportunities from the rest.

To join Eric, Louis, and Luke, just click here to register. We’ll see you tomorrow at 10:00 a.m. Eastern.

“But hold on, Jeff, if we see a wave of data center moratoriums across the nation, won’t that kill the AI trade?” It’s tempting to see the backlash as pure upside: choke off new construction, and whoever already owns power gets richer. That’s the bull case, and I think it’s largely right. But a sharp reader should be asking the harder question – if the backlash keeps spreading, doesn’t it threaten the entire AI infrastructure trade?

Take an AI picks-and-shovels supplier like Vertiv Holdings Co. (VRT). Its order book has swelled past $12 billion on the power and cooling gear these facilities need. But those orders only convert to revenue if the data centers actually get built and powered. Slam the brakes, and a backlog is just a promise.

So, a widespread national moratorium on data centers isn’t something to brush off idly. Let’s walk through it.

Beyond memory, one of the most significant constraints on AI today is power. There simply isn’t enough of it, fast enough, to feed every planned facility.

When politicians layer permitting delays, grid audits, and ratepayer fights on top of an already power-starved buildout, they genuinely slow the pace at which that backlog turns to cash.

So yes, slower-than-expected revenue would ding AI infrastructure companies that have told Wall Street those revenues are coming. But a ding isn’t the same as a broad AI crash.

Here’s the part the doomsayers skip Earlier this month, headlines trumpeted that even data-center leader Texas was slamming the brakes on its data-center rollout. It was positioned as a harbinger of doom for AI.

Yes and no.

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott ordered regulators to audit data centers waiting to plug into the state grid and deny those that didn’t measure up.

It was a screen, not a stop – and it came with a giant loophole: facilities that build their own on-site power can skip the grid queue entirely. Even his critics shrugged, with one Texas official calling it “all hat and no cattle” – Texas jargon for all talk and no action.

Sound familiar? On-site power is precisely what Riot, Core Scientific, and CleanSpark already have.

Meanwhile, all year, as the moratoriums piled up, the spending went up. The four biggest hyperscalers now plan roughly $725 billion in capital expenditures this year – the money they pour into building all this – up about 77% from 2025.

But how has this been happening even as the moratoriums have been growing? Because as we noted in our Messy Middle Digest last month, resistance in one state doesn’t kill AI demand – it relocates it.

A project blocked in New York or stalled in Texas moves to a friendlier corridor, another state, or offshore. The chips still get bought.

So, the backlash doesn’t break the trade, but it does redistribute the winners – and raises the cost of being on the wrong side.

Returning to our question then… How worried should you be about your AI infrastructure stocks considering this growing data center backlash?

I’d call it a yellow flag, not a red one – but with one genuine red tail.

The yellow flag is timing. Delays and cost overruns can bruise these richly priced stocks even when demand remains intact.

Returning to Vertiv, we just watched it happen here in Q2. The company reported record demand and raised its full-year guidance, yet the stock still dropped about 12% as revenue slipped due to project timing and supply-chain snags. Nothing was wrong with the demand – only the pace of delivery – and the stock got slammed anyway.

The red tail is the one we flagged back in July: isolated state pushback just routes capital elsewhere, but a coordinated wall – a federal pause, or so many states acting at once that there’s nowhere friendly left to go – could truly break the trade. Today, that’s a risk to watch, but not the base case.

One thing to watch above all: the day that hyperscaler spending guidance stops rising. That’s the signal to take seriously. Until then, rising guidance is your green light to stay in the AI infrastructure trade.

Which is why the move today isn’t “sell,” it’s “sort” This is the Messy Middle turned on your own portfolio. For every AI holding you own, ask a single critical question…

Which side of the productivity-versus-disruption tradeoff is it on?

The scarcity beneficiaries – the power, grid, cooling, and existing-capacity names – get more valuable as building gets harder. The chipmakers are largely insulated, because demand just relocates. The vulnerable ones are the opposite: names pinned to a single contested region, or priced as if the buildout will be cheap, fast, and unopposed.

All this brings us back to tomorrow’s AI Revolution Portfolio refresh, with updated positions spread deliberately across all the rungs of the AI ladder rather than concentrated on any one of them. Here’s that link again to reserve your spot.

We’ll keep tracking the backlash – and both sides of the trade it’s creating – in the months ahead.

Have a good evening,

Jeff Remsburg

 (Disclosure: I own VRT.)

The AI race may be driving a new pricing benchmark. JPMorgan estimates Anthropic agreed to pay roughly $2.4 per watt per year for capacity at Riot Platforms, Inc‘s (NASDAQ:RIOT) Texas data center — about 33% above the firm’s estimated industry average of $1.8 per watt per year — suggesting that ready-to-deploy AI infrastructure is commanding a growing premium as demand outpaces supply.

Anthropic’s Lease Suggests AI Infrastructure Pricing Power Is StrengtheningThe pricing insight comes from JPMorgan’s analysis of Riot’s newly signed 191-megawatt data center lease with Anthropic. According to the bank, the contract’s implied pricing sits well above prevailing market levels, reinforcing the view that companies building frontier AI models are willing to pay up for capacity which can be delivered quickly.

• Riot Platforms shares are climbing with conviction. What’s fueling RIOT momentum?

The economics are significant. The base 20-year agreement is expected to generate approximately $9.1 billion in total contract value, with two optional five-year extensions increasing the potential value to $16.1 billion. Riot plans to deliver the first 96 MW of capacity by December 2027 and the remaining 95 MW by June 2028.

JPMorgan Sees Scarce Power Driving Premium PricingJPMorgan believes the premium reflects more than Anthropic’s willingness to spend. The bank pointed to tightening supply-demand dynamics for AI infrastructure, particularly sites with existing grid access and near-term delivery timelines. Riot’s Corsicana campus, which already has approved interconnection capacity and is partially energized, is also under a non-binding letter of intent covering its full 756 MW, underscoring continued demand for large-scale AI deployments.

The analysts also argued that recent actions by Texas regulators could further increase the value of power-ready campuses by making existing capacity more difficult to replicate. That, in turn, could support elevated pricing for operators with shovel-ready infrastructure.

What Investors Should Watch NextThe key question is whether Anthropic’s pricing proves to be an outlier or the beginning of a broader repricing across the AI infrastructure market.

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If Riot secures a binding lease for its 756 MW Corsicana campus at comparable economics, it would strengthen the argument that power — not GPUs — is becoming the scarcest asset in the AI buildout.

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For investors, future lease pricing may matter just as much as megawatts contracted.

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As the crypto winter marches on, Bitcoin has now plummeted nearly 28% this year. This has been particularly difficult for companies like Bitcoin miners that are valued based on their Bitcoin holdings.

Luckily, however, Bitcoin mining is made possible through powerful data centers that use high-speed computers to solve cryptographic puzzles to earn and mine new Bitcoins. Data centers are also fueling the artificial intelligence (AI) revolution.

As crypto continues to struggle, some Bitcoin mining companies have retrofitted their facilities to power AI. Riot Platforms (RIOT -1.01%) just entered into a $9 billion agreement to provide AI compute to Anthropic. Here's why AI is key to valuing crypto-mining companies.

Image source: Getty Images.

Making the conversion comes with rewards
Crypto mining facilities have several key advantages when it comes to becoming an AI data center. For one, they already have a significant head start: They have secured land for a data center, are connected to the power grid, and are up and running. New data centers have received significant pushback from the public due to environmental issues and the threat AI could pose to humanity.

Still, making the transition is not necessarily easy. The hardware used by Bitcoin miners does not work for AI, so these miners need to secure graphics processing units (GPUs) from companies like Nvidia, as well as different fans to keep the chips cool.

Given that the software and infrastructure needs differ, this may also require new personnel to operate effectively. Power consumption and its management also differ for AI, and Bitcoin mining companies may need new permits to operate an AI data center.

But for those that successfully make the transition, the rewards can be immense.

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Riot's $9.1 billion deal with Anthropic is for an initial 20-year term at its Rockdale, Texas, campus. There are also two five-year extensions at Anthropic's option, which could translate into an additional $7 billion of revenue.

This follows an earlier deal this year in which Riot agreed to lease 25 megawatts (MW) of compute capacity to Advanced Micro Devices, with the potential to expand to 200 MW of critical IT load capacity. Riot's deal with Anthropic is for 191 MW of capacity.

The company generated only about $23 million in revenue from its data center division in the second quarter, but you can see how that's going to ramp up quickly: $9 billion over 20 years, split evenly, is about $450 million per year. Riot had roughly $174 million of total revenue in the second quarter.

Valuing these stocks based on potential compute
A major way many investors are valuing neocloud stocks serving AI companies like Anthropic and OpenAI is by looking at total capacity and determining how much they can charge for it, which can help them model total revenue.

Much more goes into that because companies also have to bring all their capacity online to monetize it, which presents its own challenges. And the data center business is capital-intensive, so investors need to assess the potential returns on investment.

The amount data centers can charge for compute may change over time, based on supply and demand. While I don't know the full details of the Riot-Anthropic deal, I suspect Anthropic is not contractually obligated to pay for all 20 years and has the flexibility to exit the deal.

For instance, Anthropic signed a huge compute deal with Space Exploration Technologies, under which it could pull out with 90 days' notice.

Still, looking at Riot, the company could have upside, given its 1.7 gigawatts of fully approved compute capacity. The company trades at a $7.1 billion market cap.

Another Neocloud, Nebius, has a roughly $75.5 billion market cap and plans to have 800 MW to 1 GW of power online by the end of the year. However, Nebius also plans to have 5 GW of contracted power by year's end and then plans to bring 1 GW of power online per year starting in 2027.

So there's a reason for Riot's discount, but you can see how contracted power and actual capacity brought online are everything for neocloud stocks, and thus the Bitcoin miners are trying to become neoclouds.

Riot Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:RIOT) shares rose about 4% on Tuesday after the bitcoin mining company announced a 20-year data center lease with a leading frontier AI lab in a deal valued at approximately $9.1 billion over its initial term. The tenant was not identified by Riot, but the deal has been widely reported to be with Anthropic.

The agreement covers 191 megawatts of critical IT capacity at Riot’s Rockdale campus and is expected to generate approximately $9.1 billion in total contract revenue through June 2048. The lease includes two five-year extension options that could bring the total potential contract value to approximately $16.1 billion if both are fully exercised.

Riot said the lease is expected to generate cumulative net operating income of between $7.3 billion and $8.2 billion over the initial 20-year term, representing an estimated average annual NOI contribution of $365 million to $411 million.

The company expects to deliver the capacity in phases, with the initial 96 IT megawatts scheduled for December 2027 and the full 191 IT megawatts expected to be deployed by June 2028. Riot said the project will leverage its existing, fully approved interconnection at the Rockdale campus.

The agreement marks Riot’s second tenant at the Rockdale campus, following its lease with Advanced Micro Devices. Together, the two agreements cover 241 megawatts of capacity and represent approximately $9.8 billion in long-term contracted revenue, according to Riot.

“Today’s announcement of a landmark 20-year, 191-megawatt data center lease with a leading frontier AI lab marks a defining moment in our evolution into a leading developer of large-scale data centers,” Riot CEO Jason Les said in a statement.  

“It builds directly on a strong second quarter, in which we completed delivery of the initial 25 megawatts to AMD on time and on budget. In just over six months, Riot has now executed leases totaling 241 megawatts of capacity, representing approximately $9.8 billion of long-term, contracted revenue with two of the most important companies in the AI ecosystem.”

The reported identity of the tenant has also added to speculation around a potential Anthropic initial public offering.

Reports have suggested the AI company could target a valuation of $965 billion to more than $1 trillion in a potential IPO as early as fall 2026.

Anthropic reportedly reached a $965 billion post-money valuation following a $65 billion Series H funding round. The company has also reportedly submitted a confidential draft Form S-1 registration statement to the SEC, while reports have pointed to a potential listing as early as October.

Bitcoin miner Riot Platform has struck a $9 billion, 20-year compute deal with Anthropic. CNBC's Tanaya Macheel joins 'The Exchange' to discuss.

Key Takeaways Riot Platforms signed a 191 MW, 20-year Rockdale AI lease with about $9.1B in contract revenues.Riot Platforms is funding AI and AMD builds with project debt as CapEx ramps into 2027.Riot Platforms says Corsicana's full-site LOI could support 756 MW and top $1B in annual rent Riot Platforms, Inc. (RIOT - Free Report) used its Q2 earnings call to frame 2026 around data center execution, led by a new 191-megawatt Rockdale lease with a leading frontier AI lab and a full-site Corsicana letter of intent.

Financially, RIOT posted a loss of 68 cents per share compared with the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 39 cents, a -74.40% surprise. Revenues of $174.20 million beat the $148.70 million consensus by 17.20%.

RIOT Locks in a 191 MW AI LeaseChief executive officer Jason Les said the Rockdale lease carries a 20-year initial term and about $9.1 billion of contract revenues. Two five-year extensions would raise potential contract revenues to $16.1 billion.

According to CEO Jason Les, the first 96 MW is targeted for December 2027, with the remaining 95 MW due in June 2028. Management expects an 80% to 90% NOI margin.

CEO Jason Les said illustrative capital spending is $11 million to $12 million per IT MW, or $2.1 billion to $2.3 billion for the project.

Riot Keeps AMD Expansion on ScheduleCEO Jason Les said Riot delivered AMD’s initial 25 MW in May on schedule and on budget, bringing recurring operating lease revenues onto the platform.

According to CEO Jason Les, construction is underway on AMD’s second 25 MW. The first 10 MW is expected in November 2026, with the remaining 15 MW scheduled for May 2027.

CEO Jason Les said ESS Metron and E4A remain embedded in project execution, providing internal engineering, switchgear and power-distribution capabilities.

RIOT Leans on Project Debt and Capital RecyclingChief financial officer Jason Chung said a $573 million Morgan Stanley interim facility is funding long-lead equipment and initial development for the frontier AI lab project while an investment-grade backstop is finalized.

CFO Jason Chung said Riot expects an approximately $180 million term loan against AMD’s first 25 MW and a delayed-draw facility for the next deployment. He expects the first loan to close before the end of Q3.

In Q&A, an ATB Cormark analyst asked about spending cadence. CFO Jason Chung said project CapEx should ramp in the second half of 2026 and peak across the AI lab and AMD builds around Q2 to Q3 2027.

Riot Advances a Full-Site Corsicana LOICEO Jason Les said Corsicana’s full site is under a nonbinding LOI with one tenant. The campus has one GW of approved utility power and supports a potential 756 MW of critical IT capacity.

A Needham analyst asked how discussions had progressed. CEO Jason Les said a full-site lease could exceed $1 billion in annual rent at full deployment, but the process requires extensive design, legal and commercial work.

CEO Jason Les also said Riot is continuing horizontal development and long-lead procurement without locking itself into tenant-specific choices before final terms are set.

RIOT Shows Early Data Center Margin ProgressCFO Jason Chung said Data Center revenues were $23.2 million, including $4.9 million of recurring operating lease revenues. Operating lease gross margin was 84%.

CFO Jason Chung said Engineering revenues reached $37.3 million and gross margin was 27.5%. The data center sector represented about 90% of the segment’s $177.1 million backlog.

CFO Jason Chung also said Riot ended Q2 with $1.2 billion of liquidity, including $666 million in Bitcoin and $549 million in cash, as Bitcoin sales continued to fund data center equity needs.

Riot Prioritizes Delivery, Leasing and FinancingCEO Jason Les said priorities for the rest of 2026 are to deliver AMD capacity, advance the frontier AI lab build, convert the Corsicana LOI into a lease and close lower-cost project financing.

CEO Jason Les also said Riot is evaluating additional power assets while maintaining a preference for sites that can meet hyperscaler and enterprise diligence requirements.

CEO Jason Les described the operating model as leasing to creditworthy tenants, financing projects efficiently, building with discipline and recycling capital into additional development.

RIOT’s Zacks Signals Remain Weak OverallRIOT currently carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).

 You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

Its Value, Growth and VGM Score are all F, while its Momentum Score is B. Under the Zacks framework, the favorable momentum reading does not override a weak Rank, which reflects unfavorable earnings-estimate revision trends.

The Zacks Rank can change as analysts revise estimates after the just-reported results. The current mix is a point-in-time signal, with post-earnings estimate revisions determining whether the Rank strengthens or weakens.

Shares of Riot Platforms (NASDAQ:RIOT | RIOT Price Prediction) are working through a choppy post-earnings tape. The stock is off 9.43% over the past week and 7.46% over the past month, yet retirement investors who have held through the noise are sitting on a 53.12% year-to-date gain and a 75.09% one-year advance. The stock still trades below its 52-week high of $30.32.

Wall Street is broadly constructive but restrained. The consensus Street target sits at $29.66, backed by 20 buy ratings and just one hold. Then comes a bolder call: 24/7 Wall St.’s 247Factor model pins a 2026 base-case target of $34.46, implying 71.21% upside from the current $20.13. That sits meaningfully above Street consensus.

But can RIOT realistically reach $34.46 by the end of 2026?

24/7 Wall St.’s $34.46 RIOT Prediction

The model blends forward earnings power with a 1.162 247Factor adjustment that reflects 37.3% YoY earnings growth, 95% bullish analyst consensus, and sector momentum. The anchor: Riot’s newly signed 20-year, 191-megawatt lease with a leading frontier AI lab worth roughly $9.10 billion, potentially $16.1 billion with extensions.

Key Drivers of RIOT Stock Performance

AI infrastructure conversion. Combined data center contracts now total 241 MW and approximately $9.8 billion in long-term contracted revenue, producing durable, decade-plus cash flow retirement accounts can compound around. AMD partnership economics. The initial 25 MW deployment is generating recurring lease revenue at an 84% gross margin, with expansion phases hitting November 2026 and May 2027. Capital-efficient buildout. Management projects only $30M to $280M in net equity for the frontier AI lab build, with $1.2 billion of liquidity and no new share issuance planned. Less dilution means more per-share value for long-term holders. What Will It Take for RIOT to Reach $34.46?

With a current market cap of roughly $7.76 billion at $20.13, sustaining a $34.46 share price implies market value expanding proportionally into the low-teens billions. Three conditions are required:

On-time delivery of the initial 96 MW by December 2027. Conversion of the Corsicana LOI (up to 1 GW) into an executed lease. Finalization of investment-grade project financing to fund the buildout without dilution. The primary risk remains construction execution across a multi-year, phased deployment stretching through June 2028. Even so, the contracted revenue base, AMD validation, and capital-light equity plan give the $34.46 target real credibility as a multi-year compounding thesis worth monitoring.

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

Terrestrial Energy Inc. (NASDAQ: IMSR) (“Terrestrial Energy” or “the Company”), a developer of small modular nuclear plants using its Generation IV Inte

Riot Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:RIOT) on Monday reported upbeat second-quarter sales results.

Riot reported second-quarter revenue of $174.20 million, beating analyst estimates of $152.06 million, according to Benzinga Pro. The company reported a second-quarter adjusted EBITDA loss of $69.73 million.

Subsequent to quarter’s end, Riot signed a 20-year data center lease with a “leading frontier AI lab” for 191 megawatts of capacity at the company’s Rockdale campus.

"Today’s announcement of a landmark 20-year, 191-megawatt data center lease with a leading frontier AI lab marks a defining moment in our evolution into a leading developer of large-scale data centers," said Jason Les, CEO of Riot. "It builds directly on a strong second quarter, in which we completed delivery of the initial 25 megawatts to AMD on time and on budget."

Riot Platforms shares jumped 18.9% to $23.07 in pre-market trading.

These analysts made changes to their price targets on Riot Platforms following earnings announcement.

Needham analyst John Todaro maintained the stock with a Buy and raised the price target from $28.5 to $30. Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Brett Knoblauch maintained the stock with an Overweight rating and raised the price target from $23 to $30. Considering buying RIOT stock? Here’s what analysts think:

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Shares of Riot Platforms (NASDAQ:RIOT | RIOT Price Prediction) are up 17% to $22.64 Tuesday morning after the company disclosed a landmark AI data center lease alongside its latest quarterly report. The move follows an after-hours surge of more than 25% on Monday, when Riot Platforms stock had closed the regular session down 5.46%.

The catalyst is a 20-year co-location agreement at Riot Platforms’ Rockdale, Texas campus, supplying 191 MW of critical IT capacity to an unnamed “leading frontier AI lab,” which Bloomberg identified as Anthropic. The lease is expected to generate about $9.1 billion of contract revenue through June 2048, with two five-year extension options that could raise total potential value to about $16.1 billion.

Combined with an existing lease with Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD), Riot Platforms now controls 241 MW of contracted capacity and roughly $9.8 billion of long-term contracted revenue, cementing its pivot from a pure Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) miner into a large-scale data center developer. The scale of that backlog is what has traders repricing the stock as an AI infrastructure play rather than a pure crypto miner.

Anthropic Lease Anchors the Move Delivery under the new lease is staged: 96 IT MW by December 2027 and the full 191 IT MW by June 2028. Morgan Stanley is providing $573 million of interim financing while Riot Platforms finalizes a permanent credit backstop for the buildout.

CEO Jason Les, announcing the transaction, stated, “Today’s announcement of a landmark 20-year, 191-megawatt data center lease with a leading frontier AI lab marks a defining moment in our evolution into a leading developer of large-scale data centers.” He added that Riot Platforms has now executed 241 MW of leases with two of the most important companies in the AI ecosystem.

The quarterly print is more mixed. Riot Platforms’ revenue rose 14% year over year to $174.2 million, but the company swung to a net loss of $237.2 million (about $0.68 per diluted share) from a year-ago profit, with negative adjusted EBITDA. Traders are clearly focused on the multi-year revenue backlog rather than the current-quarter loss.

Moreover, the analyst reaction was swift. Bernstein raised its Riot Platforms stock price target to $35 from $30, with an Outperform rating, citing the Anthropic lease and a non-binding letter of intent covering Riot Platforms’ 1 GW Corsicana site. Citi lifted its target to $32 from $28, with a Buy rating, calling the Q2 report “transformational,” and Piper Sandler moved to $25 from $23, with an Overweight rating.

Peers Catch a Sympathy Bid Former Bitcoin miners repositioning as AI and HPC infrastructure operators are catching a modest read-through rather than their own news. IREN (NASDAQ:IREN) shares are up 2% to $39.58, Applied Digital (NASDAQ:APLD) shares are up 2% to $29.56, and TeraWulf (NASDAQ:WULF) shares are up 2% to $16.58.

The muted response across the group underscores that today’s move is a single-name event driven by Riot Platforms’ specific contract, not a broader sector rerating. The Global X Data Center & Digital Infrastructure ETF (NASDAQ:DTCR) is up just 1% to $28.25, reinforcing that read.

The DTCR ETF is a narrow thematic fund heavily concentrated in data-center REITs and digital infrastructure names, so single-miner news dilutes quickly. It’s also unleveraged, which is worth noting for investors weighing sector-concentration risk in their exposure to the theme.

What to Watch Market watchers can watch for follow-through on Riot Platforms’ Corsicana LOI conversion, updates on the permanent credit facility that would replace the Morgan Stanley bridge, and construction milestones ahead of the December 2027 initial Anthropic delivery. Riot Platforms stock could, in the coming weeks and months, reach its $29.66 analyst target price now that the shares are well above $20.

Options positioning tilts constructive, with Riot Platforms’ full-chain put/call ratio at 0.63 and Reddit sentiment on the r/wallstreetbets deal thread scoring 78, bullish. Momentum traders can keep this one active into the close, but the mixed Q2 print and heavy prior insider selling argue for measured position sizing rather than chasing.

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

Riot Platforms (RIOT) surged 20% premarket after reportedly securing a $9.1B, 20-year AI data center capacity deal with Anthropic, with potential extensions to $16.1B. PLUG shares jumped 11% as Q2 results beat expectations, gross margin neared breakeven, and 2026 revenue growth target was raised to 15%-16%.

Riot Platforms, Inc. (RIOT - Free Report) came out with a quarterly loss of $0.68 per share versus the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $0.39. This compares to earnings of $0.57 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items.

This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of -74.36%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this company would post a loss of $0.33 per share when it actually produced a loss of $1.44, delivering a surprise of -336.36%.

Over the last four quarters, the company has surpassed consensus EPS estimates just once.

Riot Platforms, Inc., which belongs to the Zacks Financial - Miscellaneous Services industry, posted revenues of $174.24 million for the quarter ended June 2026, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 17.16%. This compares to year-ago revenues of $152.99 million. The company has topped consensus revenue estimates three times over the last four quarters.

The sustainability of the stock's immediate price movement based on the recently-released numbers and future earnings expectations will mostly depend on management's commentary on the earnings call.

Riot Platforms, Inc. shares have added about 62% since the beginning of the year versus the S&P 500's gain of 13.3%.

What's Next for Riot Platforms, Inc.?While Riot Platforms, Inc. has outperformed the market so far this year, the question that comes to investors' minds is: what's next for the stock?

There are no easy answers to this key question, but one reliable measure that can help investors address this is the company's earnings outlook. Not only does this include current consensus earnings expectations for the coming quarter(s), but also how these expectations have changed lately.

Empirical research shows a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions. Investors can track such revisions by themselves or rely on a tried-and-tested rating tool like the Zacks Rank, which has an impressive track record of harnessing the power of earnings estimate revisions.

Ahead of this earnings release, the estimate revisions trend for Riot Platforms, Inc. was unfavorable. While the magnitude and direction of estimate revisions could change following the company's just-released earnings report, the current status translates into a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell) for the stock. So, the shares are expected to underperform the market in the near future. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

It will be interesting to see how estimates for the coming quarters and the current fiscal year change in the days ahead. The current consensus EPS estimate is -$0.27 on $156.65 million in revenues for the coming quarter and -$2.33 on $629.87 million in revenues for the current fiscal year.

Investors should be mindful of the fact that the outlook for the industry can have a material impact on the performance of the stock as well. In terms of the Zacks Industry Rank, Financial - Miscellaneous Services is currently in the bottom 39% of the 250 plus Zacks industries. Our research shows that the top 50% of the Zacks-ranked industries outperform the bottom 50% by a factor of more than 2 to 1.

One other stock from the same industry, Vinci Compass Investments (VINP - Free Report) , is yet to report results for the quarter ended June 2026. The results are expected to be released on August 11.

This investments platform is expected to post quarterly earnings of $0.23 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of +4.6%. The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has remained unchanged over the last 30 days.

Vinci Compass Investments' revenues are expected to be $56.05 million, up 31.7% from the year-ago quarter.

Riot Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:RIOT) reported second-quarter results after the closing bell on Monday. Here’s a rundown of the report.

Riot Platforms shares are trending. Where is RIOT stock headed? Riot Platforms Q2 Key MetricsRiot reported second-quarter revenue of $174.20 million, beating analyst estimates of $152.06 million, according to Benzinga Pro. The company reported a second-quarter adjusted EBITDA loss of $69.73 million.

Riot generated data center revenue of $23.20 million, Engineering revenue of $37.30 million and Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) mining revenue of $113.70 million in the quarter. The company said it mined 1,587 Bitcoin during the period, up from 1,426 in the comparable quarter last year. The average cost to mine Bitcoin in the second quarter was $49,912.

Riot Signs 20-Year Data Center AgreementSubsequent to quarter’s end, Riot signed a 20-year data center lease with a “leading frontier AI lab” for 191 megawatts of capacity at the company’s Rockdale campus. The deal is expected to generate approximately $9.10 billion in total initial contract revenue.

“Today’s announcement of a landmark 20-year, 191-megawatt data center lease with a leading frontier AI lab marks a defining moment in our evolution into a leading developer of large-scale data centers,” said Jason Les, CEO of Riot. “It builds directly on a strong second quarter, in which we completed delivery of the initial 25 megawatts to AMD on time and on budget.”

Riot ended the quarter with $548.90 million in cash and 11,380 Bitcoin.

RIOT Stock Rises After EarningsRIOT Price Action: Riot shares were up 10.82% in Monday’s after-hours session, trading at $21.49 at the time of publication, according to Benzinga Pro.

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August 09, 2026 18:30 ET  | Source: Riot Platforms, Inc.

CASTLE ROCK, Colo., Aug. 09, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Riot Platforms, Inc. (NASDAQ: RIOT) (“Riot” or “the Company”), a leader in vertically integrated digital infrastructure specializing in the development of large-scale data centers and Bitcoin mining applications, announced today that it has rescheduled the second quarter 2026 earnings conference call for Monday, August 10, 2026, at 4:30 P.M. EST.

This conference call will be available through a webcast. Please use this link here to register. Participants who choose to dial into the call in the United States or internationally to ask questions, please use this toll-free number: +1 (800) 715-9871 or toll number: +1 (646) 307-1963. For both dial in numbers, the audience passcode is 3868069. A replay of the webcast will be available after the call ends, through this link.

  About Riot Platforms, Inc.

Riot Platforms, Inc. (NASDAQ: RIOT) is a leading digital infrastructure company, specializing in the development of large-scale data centers and bitcoin mining applications. The Company operates digital infrastructure and Bitcoin mining facilities in central Texas and Kentucky, and engineering and fabrication facilities in Denver and Houston.

Riot’s vision is to be the world’s most trusted platform for powering and building the next digital world. Its mission is to empower the future of digital infrastructure by positively impacting the sectors, networks, and communities the Company touches.

For more information, visit Riot Platforms.

   
Safe Harbor   

Statements in this press release that are not historical facts are forward-looking statements that reflect management’s current expectations, assumptions, and estimates of future performance and economic conditions. Such statements rely on the safe harbor provisions of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, enacted as part of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Because such statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Words such as “anticipates,” “believes,” “plans,” “expects,” “intends,” “will,” “potential,” “estimates,” and similar expressions and their negatives are intended to identify forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements may include, but are not limited to, statements relating to the Company’s plans to develop data centers, projections, objectives, expectations, and intentions about future events and the Company’s short-term and long-term business operations, objectives, and financial needs. These forward-looking statements are based on management’s current expectations about future events as of the date hereof. Detailed information regarding the factors identified by the Company’s management which they believe may cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements in this press release may be found in the Company’s filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”), including the risks, uncertainties, and other factors discussed under the sections entitled “Risk Factors” and “Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements” of the Company’s most recently filed periodic reports on Form 10-K and Form 10-Q, and the other filings the Company makes with the SEC, copies of which may be obtained from the SEC’s website, www.sec.gov. All forward-looking statements included in this press release are made only as of the date of this press release, and the Company disclaims any intention or obligation to update or revise any such forward-looking statements to reflect events or circumstances that subsequently occur, or of which the Company hereafter becomes aware, except as required by law. Persons reading this press release are cautioned not to place undue reliance on such forward-looking statements.

  Investor Contact:   
Joshua Kane
[email protected]

  Media Contact:   
Becca Rincon   
[email protected]

Key Takeaways Riot Platforms is expected to report lower Q2 revenues and EPS year over year on Aug. 5.RIOT may face pressure from higher mining difficulty, Bitcoin volatility and elevated expenses.Riot Platforms may benefit from AMD lease revenues, tenant fit-outs and power-curtailment credits. Riot Platforms, Inc. (RIOT - Free Report) is slated to report second-quarter 2026 results on Aug. 5, before the market opens. The company’s quarterly results are likely to display a year-over-year decrease in revenues and earnings per share (EPS).

In the last reported quarter, this bitcoin miner reported a loss of $1.44 per share, wider than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 33 cents. The results were impacted by non-cash mark-to-market losses on RIOT’s Bitcoin holdings, and elevated depreciation and amortization expenses.

Over the preceding four quarters, RIOT’s EPS surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate twice and missed in the remaining period, the average miss being negative 130.56%. This is depicted in the graph below:

RIOT: Factors at Play and Q2 ProjectionsRiot Platforms’ second-quarter 2026 results are expected to reflect weaker Bitcoin-mining economics. Rising network difficulty, fewer Bitcoins mined and Bitcoin price volatility are likely to have pressured mining revenues and margins. Reported earnings may also have been affected by fair-value adjustments on Bitcoin holdings, as well as elevated depreciation and data-center development expenses.

The company’s use of Bitcoin sales to fund capital expenditures may have reduced its digital-asset holdings. Higher operating and maintenance costs related to the AMD capacity ramp-up, coupled with lower-margin tenant fit-out revenues, are also likely to have weighed on consolidated profitability. Engineering revenues may have remained under pressure as Riot reserved manufacturing capacity for its data-center projects.

On the positive side, the May delivery of the remaining 20 megawatts under the initial AMD lease is likely to have boosted high-margin operating lease revenues during the quarter. Ongoing tenant fit-out activity, power-curtailment credits and efficient electricity management may have provided additional support.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter revenues is pegged at $148.71 million, implying a 2.8% decrease from the prior-year quarter’s reported number.

RIOT’s activities in the to-be-reported quarter were inadequate in garnering analysts’ confidence. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter EPS has been revised southward to negative 39 cents over the past month. It suggests a significant downward change from the year-ago quarter’s tally.

What Our Quantitative Model Predicts for RIOTOur proven model does not conclusively predict a surprise in terms of EPS for RIOT this quarter. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an EPS beat, which is not the case here.

RIOT has an Earnings ESP of -101.27% and currently carries a Zacks Rank of 5 (Strong Sell). You can uncover the best stocks before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Stocks That Warrant a LookHere are two stocks from the broader finance sector — Brookfield Asset Management Ltd. (BAM - Free Report) and Ridgepost Capital, Inc. (RPC - Free Report) — you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to report an EPS beat this quarter.

Brookfield Asset Management is slated to report quarterly numbers on Aug. 5. BAM has an Earnings ESP of +1.14% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Ridgepost Capital is slated to report quarterly numbers on Aug. 5. RPC has an Earnings ESP of +7.14% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present.

Riot Platforms, Inc. (RIOT - Free Report) is one of the stocks most watched by Zacks.com visitors lately. So, it might be a good idea to review some of the factors that might affect the near-term performance of the stock.

Over the past month, shares of this company have returned +0.1%, compared to the Zacks S&P 500 composite's -0.5% change. During this period, the Zacks Financial - Miscellaneous Services industry, which Riot Platforms, Inc. falls in, has gained 2.3%. The key question now is: What could be the stock's future direction?

Although media reports or rumors about a significant change in a company's business prospects usually cause its stock to trend and lead to an immediate price change, there are always certain fundamental factors that ultimately drive the buy-and-hold decision.

Revisions to Earnings EstimatesHere at Zacks, we prioritize appraising the change in the projection of a company's future earnings over anything else. That's because we believe the present value of its future stream of earnings is what determines the fair value for its stock.

Our analysis is essentially based on how sell-side analysts covering the stock are revising their earnings estimates to take the latest business trends into account. When earnings estimates for a company go up, the fair value for its stock goes up as well. And when a stock's fair value is higher than its current market price, investors tend to buy the stock, resulting in its price moving upward. Because of this, empirical studies indicate a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and short-term stock price movements.

Riot Platforms, Inc. is expected to post a loss of $0.39 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of -168.4%. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed -13.7%.

The consensus earnings estimate of -$2.32 for the current fiscal year indicates a year-over-year change of -19%. This estimate has changed -11.6% over the last 30 days.

For the next fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of $0.78 indicates a change of +66.4% from what Riot Platforms, Inc. is expected to report a year ago. Over the past month, the estimate has changed +20.4%.

With an impressive externally audited track record, our proprietary stock rating tool -- the Zacks Rank -- is a more conclusive indicator of a stock's near-term price performance, as it effectively harnesses the power of earnings estimate revisions. The size of the recent change in the consensus estimate, along with three other factors related to earnings estimates, has resulted in a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell) for Riot Platforms, Inc..

The chart below shows the evolution of the company's forward 12-month consensus EPS estimate:

12 Month EPS

Revenue Growth ForecastEven though a company's earnings growth is arguably the best indicator of its financial health, nothing much happens if it cannot raise its revenues. It's almost impossible for a company to grow its earnings without growing its revenue for long periods. Therefore, knowing a company's potential revenue growth is crucial.

In the case of Riot Platforms, Inc., the consensus sales estimate of $148.71 million for the current quarter points to a year-over-year change of -2.8%. The $631.92 million and $781.83 million estimates for the current and next fiscal years indicate changes of -2.4% and +23.7%, respectively.

Last Reported Results and Surprise HistoryRiot Platforms, Inc. reported revenues of $167.22 million in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +3.6%. EPS of -$1.44 for the same period compares with -$0.9 a year ago.

Compared to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $132.24 million, the reported revenues represent a surprise of +26.45%. The EPS surprise was -336.36%.

Over the last four quarters, Riot Platforms, Inc. surpassed consensus EPS estimates two times. The company topped consensus revenue estimates two times over this period.

ValuationWithout considering a stock's valuation, no investment decision can be efficient. In predicting a stock's future price performance, it's crucial to determine whether its current price correctly reflects the intrinsic value of the underlying business and the company's growth prospects.

Comparing the current value of a company's valuation multiples, such as its price-to-earnings (P/E), price-to-sales (P/S), and price-to-cash flow (P/CF), to its own historical values helps ascertain whether its stock is fairly valued, overvalued, or undervalued, whereas comparing the company relative to its peers on these parameters gives a good sense of how reasonable its stock price is.

As part of the Zacks Style Scores system, the Zacks Value Style Score (which evaluates both traditional and unconventional valuation metrics) organizes stocks into five groups ranging from A to F (A is better than B; B is better than C; and so on), making it helpful in identifying whether a stock is overvalued, rightly valued, or temporarily undervalued.

Riot Platforms, Inc. is graded F on this front, indicating that it is trading at a premium to its peers. Click here to see the values of some of the valuation metrics that have driven this grade.

ConclusionThe facts discussed here and much other information on Zacks.com might help determine whether or not it's worthwhile paying attention to the market buzz about Riot Platforms, Inc.. However, its Zacks Rank #5 does suggest that it may underperform the broader market in the near term.

Riot Platforms is reiterating a Strong Buy rating with a $25.74 price target, despite near-term bitcoin and AI market headwinds. RIOT's growth thesis centers on scaling its AMD data center hosting agreement, with potential expansion to 200MW and future opportunities at Corsicana. Q2 '26 earnings will hinge on the execution of the AMD lease, timely delivery of 25 MW capacity, and credible forward guidance on further expansion.

Investors often turn to recommendations made by Wall Street analysts before making a Buy, Sell, or Hold decision about a stock. While media reports about rating changes by these brokerage-firm employed (or sell-side) analysts often affect a stock's price, do they really matter?

Let's take a look at what these Wall Street heavyweights have to say about Riot Platforms, Inc. (RIOT - Free Report) before we discuss the reliability of brokerage recommendations and how to use them to your advantage.

Riot Platforms, Inc. currently has an average brokerage recommendation (ABR) of 1.42, on a scale of 1 to 5 (Strong Buy to Strong Sell), calculated based on the actual recommendations (Buy, Hold, Sell, etc.) made by 20 brokerage firms. An ABR of 1.42 approximates between Strong Buy and Buy.

Of the 20 recommendations that derive the current ABR, 15 are Strong Buy and three are Buy. Strong Buy and Buy respectively account for 75% and 15% of all recommendations.

Brokerage Recommendation Trends for RIOT

Check price target & stock forecast for Riot Platforms, Inc. here>>>

While the ABR calls for buying Riot Platforms, Inc., it may not be wise to make an investment decision solely based on this information. Several studies have shown limited to no success of brokerage recommendations in guiding investors to pick stocks with the best price increase potential.

Are you wondering why? The vested interest of brokerage firms in a stock they cover often results in a strong positive bias of their analysts in rating it. Our research shows that for every "Strong Sell" recommendation, brokerage firms assign five "Strong Buy" recommendations.

In other words, their interests aren't always aligned with retail investors, rarely indicating where the price of a stock could actually be heading. Therefore, the best use of this information could be validating your own research or an indicator that has proven to be highly successful in predicting a stock's price movement.

With an impressive externally audited track record, our proprietary stock rating tool, the Zacks Rank, which classifies stocks into five groups, ranging from Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) to Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell), is a reliable indicator of a stock's near-term price performance. So, validating the Zacks Rank with ABR could go a long way in making a profitable investment decision.

ABR Should Not Be Confused With Zacks RankAlthough both Zacks Rank and ABR are displayed in a range of 1--5, they are different measures altogether.

The ABR is calculated solely based on brokerage recommendations and is typically displayed with decimals (example: 1.28). In contrast, the Zacks Rank is a quantitative model allowing investors to harness the power of earnings estimate revisions. It is displayed in whole numbers -- 1 to 5.

It has been and continues to be the case that analysts employed by brokerage firms are overly optimistic with their recommendations. Because of their employers' vested interests, these analysts issue more favorable ratings than their research would support, misguiding investors far more often than helping them.

On the other hand, earnings estimate revisions are at the core of the Zacks Rank. And empirical research shows a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and near-term stock price movements.

In addition, the different Zacks Rank grades are applied proportionately to all stocks for which brokerage analysts provide current-year earnings estimates. In other words, this tool always maintains a balance among its five ranks.

Another key difference between the ABR and Zacks Rank is freshness. The ABR is not necessarily up-to-date when you look at it. But, since brokerage analysts keep revising their earnings estimates to account for a company's changing business trends, and their actions get reflected in the Zacks Rank quickly enough, it is always timely in indicating future price movements.

Is RIOT a Good Investment?Looking at the earnings estimate revisions for Riot Platforms, Inc., the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the current year has declined 11.6% over the past month to -$2.32.

Analysts' growing pessimism over the company's earnings prospects, as indicated by strong agreement among them in revising EPS estimates lower, could be a legitimate reason for the stock to plunge in the near term.

The size of the recent change in the consensus estimate, along with three other factors related to earnings estimates, has resulted in a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell) for Riot Platforms, Inc. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) stocks here >>>>

Therefore, it could be wise to take the Buy-equivalent ABR for Riot Platforms, Inc with a grain of salt.

Riot Platforms is rated a Buy, driven by its strategic pivot toward AI data center hosting and new catalysts from AMD-Anthropic deals. RIOT's future capacity remains a bottleneck for AI infrastructure, with AMD's 2 GW supply deal highlighting sustained demand exceeding RIOT's 1.2 GW expansion. Short-term headwinds persist from BTC mining revenue declines and expected Q2 losses, but long-term upside is anchored in energy infrastructure for AI.

The market expects Riot Platforms, Inc. (RIOT - Free Report) to deliver a year-over-year decline in earnings on lower revenues when it reports results for the quarter ended June 2026. This widely-known consensus outlook is important in assessing the company's earnings picture, but a powerful factor that might influence its near-term stock price is how the actual results compare to these estimates.

The stock might move higher if these key numbers top expectations in the upcoming earnings report. On the other hand, if they miss, the stock may move lower.

While management's discussion of business conditions on the earnings call will mostly determine the sustainability of the immediate price change and future earnings expectations, it's worth having a handicapping insight into the odds of a positive EPS surprise.

Zacks Consensus EstimateThis company is expected to post quarterly loss of $0.39 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of -168.4%.

Revenues are expected to be $150.47 million, down 1.7% from the year-ago quarter.

Estimate Revisions TrendThe consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised 13.68% lower over the last 30 days to the current level. This is essentially a reflection of how the covering analysts have collectively reassessed their initial estimates over this period.

Investors should keep in mind that the direction of estimate revisions by each of the covering analysts may not always get reflected in the aggregate change.

Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Earnings WhisperEstimate revisions ahead of a company's earnings release offer clues to the business conditions for the period whose results are coming out. This insight is at the core of our proprietary surprise prediction model -- the Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction).

The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter; the Most Accurate Estimate is a more recent version of the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate. The idea here is that analysts revising their estimates right before an earnings release have the latest information, which could potentially be more accurate than what they and others contributing to the consensus had predicted earlier.

Thus, a positive or negative Earnings ESP reading theoretically indicates the likely deviation of the actual earnings from the consensus estimate. However, the model's predictive power is significant for positive ESP readings only.

A positive Earnings ESP is a strong predictor of an earnings beat, particularly when combined with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold). Our research shows that stocks with this combination produce a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time, and a solid Zacks Rank actually increases the predictive power of Earnings ESP.

Please note that a negative Earnings ESP reading is not indicative of an earnings miss. Our research shows that it is difficult to predict an earnings beat with any degree of confidence for stocks with negative Earnings ESP readings and/or Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) or 5 (Strong Sell).

How Have the Numbers Shaped Up for Riot Platforms, Inc.?For Riot Platforms, Inc., the Most Accurate Estimate is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, suggesting that analysts have recently become bearish on the company's earnings prospects. This has resulted in an Earnings ESP of -102.56%.

On the other hand, the stock currently carries a Zacks Rank of #5.

So, this combination makes it difficult to conclusively predict that Riot Platforms, Inc. will beat the consensus EPS estimate.

Does Earnings Surprise History Hold Any Clue?While calculating estimates for a company's future earnings, analysts often consider to what extent it has been able to match past consensus estimates. So, it's worth taking a look at the surprise history for gauging its influence on the upcoming number.

For the last reported quarter, it was expected that Riot Platforms, Inc. would post a loss of$0.33 per share when it actually produced a loss of -$1.44, delivering a surprise of -336.36%.

Over the last four quarters, the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates two times.

Bottom LineAn earnings beat or miss may not be the sole basis for a stock moving higher or lower. Many stocks end up losing ground despite an earnings beat due to other factors that disappoint investors. Similarly, unforeseen catalysts help a number of stocks gain despite an earnings miss.

That said, betting on stocks that are expected to beat earnings expectations does increase the odds of success. This is why it's worth checking a company's Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank ahead of its quarterly release. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.

Riot Platforms, Inc. doesn't appear a compelling earnings-beat candidate. However, investors should pay attention to other factors too for betting on this stock or staying away from it ahead of its earnings release.

Expected Results of an Industry PlayerRithm (RITM - Free Report) , another stock in the Zacks Financial - Miscellaneous Services industry, is expected to report earnings per share of $0.5 for the quarter ended June 2026. This estimate points to a year-over-year change of -7.4%. Revenues for the quarter are expected to be $1.46 billion, up 19.9% from the year-ago quarter.

The consensus EPS estimate for Rithm has been revised 2.4% lower over the last 30 days to the current level. However, a lower Most Accurate Estimate has resulted in an Earnings ESP of -2.00%.

This Earnings ESP, combined with its Zacks Rank #4 (Sell), makes it difficult to conclusively predict that Rithm will beat the consensus EPS estimate. Over the last four quarters, the company surpassed consensus EPS estimates two times.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

In the latest close session, Riot Platforms, Inc. (RIOT - Free Report) was down 3.7% at $20.19. This change lagged the S&P 500's daily loss of 0.79%. On the other hand, the Dow registered a loss of 0.26%, and the technology-centric Nasdaq decreased by 1.55%.

The company's stock has dropped by 21.21% in the past month, falling short of the Finance sector's gain of 5.64% and the S&P 500's gain of 4.28%.

The investment community will be closely monitoring the performance of Riot Platforms, Inc. in its forthcoming earnings report. On that day, Riot Platforms, Inc. is projected to report earnings of -$0.21 per share, which would represent a year-over-year decline of 136.84%. In the meantime, our current consensus estimate forecasts the revenue to be $148.71 million, indicating a 2.8% decline compared to the corresponding quarter of the prior year.

For the annual period, the Zacks Consensus Estimates anticipate earnings of -$2.08 per share and a revenue of $647.34 million, signifying shifts of -6.67% and -0.02%, respectively, from the last year.

Investors should also note any recent changes to analyst estimates for Riot Platforms, Inc. These revisions help to show the ever-changing nature of near-term business trends. As a result, we can interpret positive estimate revisions as a good sign for the business outlook.

Based on our research, we believe these estimate revisions are directly related to near-term stock moves. To take advantage of this, we've established the Zacks Rank, an exclusive model that considers these estimated changes and delivers an operational rating system.

The Zacks Rank system, which varies between #1 (Strong Buy) and #5 (Strong Sell), carries an impressive track record of exceeding expectations, confirmed by external audits, with stocks at #1 delivering an average annual return of +25% since 1988. The Zacks Consensus EPS estimate remained stagnant within the past month. At present, Riot Platforms, Inc. boasts a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold).

The Financial - Miscellaneous Services industry is part of the Finance sector. With its current Zacks Industry Rank of 161, this industry ranks in the bottom 35% of all industries, numbering over 250.

The Zacks Industry Rank assesses the strength of our separate industry groups by calculating the average Zacks Rank of the individual stocks contained within the groups. Our research shows that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1.

You can find more information on all of these metrics, and much more, on Zacks.com.

Shares of Marathon Digital (NASDAQ:MARA | MARA Price Prediction) are up 18% in midday trading Thursday, changing hands at $14.27. The move puts Marathon Digital stock at the top of the crypto miner leaderboard on July 9, 2026, ahead of peers Riot Platforms (NASDAQ:RIOT), CleanSpark (NASDAQ:CLSK), and TeraWulf (NASDAQ:WULF), all of which are also higher.

The rally caps a volatile stretch for MARA stock in which double-digit moves aren’t unheard-of. Today’s snapback matters for traders watching MARA stock approach the $15 resistance level.

Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) provides a sector tailwind. BTC is trading near $62,915 in midday action after tagging an intraday high of $63,199, up 1.76% over the past 24 hours. That mild Bitcoin bid lifts the whole complex, but MARA stock is outpacing its peers on the day.

The Catalyst: A 1,200-Acre Bet on AI Power The trigger is a fresh land deal. Marathon Digital announced its acquisition of a 1,200-acre powered land site in Matagorda County, Texas from HIF USA, developed with Starwood Digital Ventures. The property is expected to provide up to 1 GW of grid capacity by October 2027, scaling to 2 GW by April 2028.

Upon full energization, the site more than doubles Marathon Digital’s total power capacity to about 4.8 GW, factoring in the pending $1.5 billion Long Ridge acquisition, a 505 MW gas plant in Ohio. CEO Fred Thiel stated, “This transaction advances our strategy of securing strategically located infrastructure assets capable of supporting high-performance compute and bitcoin workloads.”

The deal cements Marathon Digital’s pivot from pure-play mining toward AI and high-performance computing infrastructure, joining a sector-wide race to convert power-rich sites into data center campuses. It also aligns MARA with peers racing to monetize gigawatt-scale power assets.

Peers Follow, but MARA Leads Today The rally has spread to multiple cryptocurrency-focused stocks. Riot Platforms stock is up 5% to $22.22, and CleanSpark shares are higher by 6% to $13.11. Meanwhile, TeraWulf stock is up 4% to $23.73.

Riot Platforms brings AI credentials from $33.15 million in Q1 2026 data center revenue anchored by an Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD) lease at its Rockdale, Texas campus. TeraWulf sits further along the transition, with HPC lease revenue at more than 60% of Q1 2026 total and total contracted revenue above $13 billion, largely backstopped by Alphabet‘s (NASDAQ:GOOGL) Google credit.

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The YTD Picture Tells a Different Story Today’s leader isn’t the frontrunner for 2026 so far. Marathon Digital stock is up 50.5% year to date (YTD), but that trails Riot Platforms at 72% YTD and TeraWulf at 106%. CleanSpark shares are up 29% YTD, keeping MARA in the middle of the pack.

Analyst positioning echoes the ranking. Citigroup (NYSE:C) raised its Riot Platforms stock price target to $28 with a Buy rating, and Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) lifted TeraWulf to $72 with an Overweight rating on its $19 billion, 20-year Anthropic lease. Marathon Digital faced the opposite treatment, with Morgan Stanley cutting its MARA target to $5.50 from $7 at Underweight, though the Street average target sits at $18.54.

Bull vs. Bear on Marathon Digital The bull case rests on scale. If Matagorda, Long Ridge, and the Starwood joint venture deliver as advertised, Marathon Digital could rival TeraWulf and Riot Platforms in gigawatt-class AI capacity within roughly two years. Marathon Digital’s 72.2 EH/s energized hashrate, up 33% year over year (YoY) keeps mining cash flow live during the transition, and the pending Long Ridge close targets positive EBITDA on day one.

The bear case centers on dilution and execution. MARA stock carries a beta of 5.37 and a 52-week range of $6.66 to $23.45. Critics point to executive compensation, equity raises, and the absence of a finalized hyperscaler tenant, something TeraWulf (Google, Core42, Fluidstack) and Riot Platforms (AMD) already have locked in. Furthermore, Marathon Digital’s Q1 2026 revenue of $174.6 million missed the $184.21 million consensus estimate.

For sector-level context, the CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (NASDAQ:WGMI) holds MARA, RIOT, and CLSK, offering diversified exposure to cryptocurrency-mining businesses. The ETF isn’t leveraged, though crypto-miner funds remain highly volatile.

What to Watch Investors can watch for whether today’s move holds into the close and whether Marathon Digital secures a hyperscaler anchor tenant for Matagorda or Long Ridge. Given the group’s high beta and direct crypto linkage, investors should consider keeping position sizes modest and treating any single-day rally as tactical rather than thesis-confirming.

Bitcoin’s next price move remains the swing factor for the whole cohort. A break back above $63,200 could extend the miner bounce into Friday, while a slip under $62,400 would likely take MARA, RIOT, CLSK, and WULF with it. The next scheduled catalyst is the group’s Q2 2026 earnings cycle, where Marathon Digital’s ability to translate power capacity into signed AI leases will be the key line for investors to track.

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Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

In the latest close session, Riot Platforms, Inc. (RIOT - Free Report) was down 2.87% at $27.75. This move lagged the S&P 500's daily gain of 1.18%. Elsewhere, the Dow gained 0.59%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq added 2.07%.

The company's stock has climbed by 5.39% in the past month, exceeding the Finance sector's gain of 1.96% and the S&P 500's loss of 2.9%.

The investment community will be paying close attention to the earnings performance of Riot Platforms, Inc. in its upcoming release. The company's earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be -$0.21, reflecting a 136.84% decrease from the same quarter last year. Simultaneously, our latest consensus estimate expects the revenue to be $148.71 million, showing a 2.8% drop compared to the year-ago quarter.

RIOT's full-year Zacks Consensus Estimates are calling for earnings of -$2.08 per share and revenue of $647.34 million. These results would represent year-over-year changes of -6.67% and -0.02%, respectively.

Investors might also notice recent changes to analyst estimates for Riot Platforms, Inc. These latest adjustments often mirror the shifting dynamics of short-term business patterns. As a result, we can interpret positive estimate revisions as a good sign for the business outlook.

Our research suggests that these changes in estimates have a direct relationship with upcoming stock price performance. To take advantage of this, we've established the Zacks Rank, an exclusive model that considers these estimated changes and delivers an operational rating system.

The Zacks Rank system, running from #1 (Strong Buy) to #5 (Strong Sell), holds an admirable track record of superior performance, independently audited, with #1 stocks contributing an average annual return of +25% since 1988. The Zacks Consensus EPS estimate remained stagnant within the past month. Right now, Riot Platforms, Inc. possesses a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold).

The Financial - Miscellaneous Services industry is part of the Finance sector. This industry, currently bearing a Zacks Industry Rank of 92, finds itself in the top 38% echelons of all 250+ industries.

The Zacks Industry Rank gauges the strength of our industry groups by measuring the average Zacks Rank of the individual stocks within the groups. Our research shows that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1.

Ensure to harness Zacks.com to stay updated with all these stock-shifting metrics, among others, in the next trading sessions.