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Packaging Corporation of America (NYSE:PKG – Get Free Report) has been assigned an average rating of “Moderate Buy” from the ten brokerages that are covering the stock, Marketbeat Ratings reports. Three equities research analysts have rated the stock with a hold recommendation, six have issued a buy recommendation and one has issued a strong buy recommendation on the company. The average 1-year price target among brokers that have updated their coverage on the stock in the last year is $271.86.

Several research analysts have weighed in on the stock. Wells Fargo & Company decreased their price objective on shares of Packaging Corporation of America from $246.00 to $245.00 and set an “equal weight” rating for the company in a report on Wednesday, October 7th. UBS Group cut their target price on shares of Packaging Corporation of America from $292.00 to $289.00 and set a “buy” rating on the stock in a research note on Monday, October 5th. Citigroup reduced their price target on shares of Packaging Corporation of America from $254.00 to $253.00 and set a “neutral” rating on the stock in a research report on Friday, October 2nd. Weiss Ratings raised shares of Packaging Corporation of America from a “hold (c+)” rating to a “buy (b-)” rating in a research report on Tuesday, August 25th. Finally, Truist Financial boosted their price objective on Packaging Corporation of America from $270.00 to $280.00 and gave the company a “buy” rating in a report on Monday, October 12th.

Read Our Latest Report on Packaging Corporation of America

PKG stock opened at $239.06 on Thursday. The company has a current ratio of 2.94, a quick ratio of 1.86 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.85. The firm has a 50 day simple moving average of $237.35 and a 200-day simple moving average of $230.48. The company has a market capitalization of $21.30 billion, a P/E ratio of 31.05, a PEG ratio of 1.96 and a beta of 0.75. Packaging Corporation of America has a twelve month low of $191.50 and a twelve month high of $259.98. Packaging Corporation of America (NYSE:PKG – Get Free Report) last posted its quarterly earnings results on Wednesday, October 21st. The industrial products company reported $3.04 earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter, beating the consensus estimate of $2.93 by $0.11. Packaging Corporation of America had a net margin of 7.25% and a return on equity of 18.94%. The firm had revenue of $2.60 billion for the quarter, compared to analysts’ expectations of $2.61 billion. During the same period in the prior year, the company posted $2.73 earnings per share. The firm’s quarterly revenue was up 12.5% on a year-over-year basis. On average, equities research analysts predict that Packaging Corporation of America will post 10.45 earnings per share for the current fiscal year.

Packaging Corporation of America Dividend Announcement The company also recently announced a quarterly dividend, which was paid on Thursday, October 15th. Shareholders of record on Tuesday, September 15th were issued a dividend of $1.50 per share. This represents a $6.00 dividend on an annualized basis and a yield of 2.5%. The ex-dividend date of this dividend was Tuesday, September 15th. Packaging Corporation of America’s dividend payout ratio (DPR) is currently 77.92%.

Insider Activity at Packaging Corporation of America In related news, President Thomas A. Hassfurther sold 12,531 shares of the company’s stock in a transaction that occurred on Monday, August 3rd. The stock was sold at an average price of $250.00, for a total transaction of $3,132,750.00. Following the sale, the president directly owned 218,751 shares of the company’s stock, valued at approximately $54,687,750. This represents a 5.42% decrease in their position. The transaction was disclosed in a legal filing with the SEC, which is accessible through this hyperlink. Also, VP Donald R. Shirley sold 12,000 shares of the company’s stock in a transaction that occurred on Thursday, August 20th. The shares were sold at an average price of $250.71, for a total value of $3,008,520.00. Following the sale, the vice president directly owned 19,110 shares in the company, valued at approximately $4,791,068.10. This represents a 38.57% decrease in their ownership of the stock. The disclosure for this sale is available in the SEC filing. In the last quarter, insiders sold 40,391 shares of company stock valued at $10,196,101. Insiders own 1.60% of the company’s stock.

Hedge Funds Weigh In On Packaging Corporation of America Hedge funds have recently added to or reduced their stakes in the business. Greenleaf Trust increased its stake in Packaging Corporation of America by 1.7% during the second quarter. Greenleaf Trust now owns 2,705 shares of the industrial products company’s stock valued at $645,000 after purchasing an additional 46 shares during the last quarter. Pinnacle Associates Ltd. lifted its position in shares of Packaging Corporation of America by 4.0% in the 3rd quarter. Pinnacle Associates Ltd. now owns 1,547 shares of the industrial products company’s stock worth $355,000 after buying an additional 59 shares during the last quarter. Root Financial Partners LLC lifted its position in shares of Packaging Corporation of America by 28.4% in the 1st quarter. Root Financial Partners LLC now owns 276 shares of the industrial products company’s stock worth $59,000 after buying an additional 61 shares during the last quarter. CX Institutional lifted its position in shares of Packaging Corporation of America by 8.2% in the 2nd quarter. CX Institutional now owns 816 shares of the industrial products company’s stock worth $195,000 after buying an additional 62 shares during the last quarter. Finally, Avidian Wealth Enterprises LLC grew its position in shares of Packaging Corporation of America by 3.1% during the 3rd quarter. Avidian Wealth Enterprises LLC now owns 2,110 shares of the industrial products company’s stock valued at $484,000 after buying an additional 63 shares during the last quarter. Institutional investors and hedge funds own 89.78% of the company’s stock.

Packaging Corporation of America Company Profile (Get Free Report)

Packaging Corporation of America (NYSE:PKG) is a manufacturer of corrugated packaging and containerboard products serving businesses primarily in the United States. Its products include shipping boxes, retail packaging, displays, protective packaging and specialty corrugated solutions used to transport and present a broad range of consumer and industrial goods.

The company also produces uncoated freesheet paper and related paper products for commercial printing, office use, publishing, converting and other applications.

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Wall Street expects a year-over-year increase in earnings on higher revenues when Packaging Corp. (PKG - Free Report) reports results for the quarter ended September 2026. While this widely-known consensus outlook is important in gauging the company's earnings picture, a powerful factor that could impact its near-term stock price is how the actual results compare to these estimates.

The earnings report, which is expected to be released on October 21, might help the stock move higher if these key numbers are better than expectations. On the other hand, if they miss, the stock may move lower.

While management's discussion of business conditions on the earnings call will mostly determine the sustainability of the immediate price change and future earnings expectations, it's worth having a handicapping insight into the odds of a positive EPS surprise.

Zacks Consensus EstimateThis maker of containerboard and corrugated packaging products is expected to post quarterly earnings of $2.94 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of +7.7%.

Revenues are expected to be $2.56 billion, up 10.8% from the year-ago quarter.

Estimate Revisions TrendThe consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised 1.48% lower over the last 30 days to the current level. This is essentially a reflection of how the covering analysts have collectively reassessed their initial estimates over this period.

Investors should keep in mind that the direction of estimate revisions by each of the covering analysts may not always get reflected in the aggregate change.

Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Earnings WhisperEstimate revisions ahead of a company's earnings release offer clues to the business conditions for the period whose results are coming out. This insight is at the core of our proprietary surprise prediction model -- the Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction).

The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter; the Most Accurate Estimate is a more recent version of the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate. The idea here is that analysts revising their estimates right before an earnings release have the latest information, which could potentially be more accurate than what they and others contributing to the consensus had predicted earlier.

Thus, a positive or negative Earnings ESP reading theoretically indicates the likely deviation of the actual earnings from the consensus estimate. However, the model's predictive power is significant for positive ESP readings only.

A positive Earnings ESP is a strong predictor of an earnings beat, particularly when combined with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold). Our research shows that stocks with this combination produce a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time, and a solid Zacks Rank actually increases the predictive power of Earnings ESP.

Please note that a negative Earnings ESP reading is not indicative of an earnings miss. Our research shows that it is difficult to predict an earnings beat with any degree of confidence for stocks with negative Earnings ESP readings and/or Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) or 5 (Strong Sell).

How Have the Numbers Shaped Up for Packaging Corp.?For Packaging Corp., the Most Accurate Estimate is higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, suggesting that analysts have recently become bullish on the company's earnings prospects. This has resulted in an Earnings ESP of +2.21%.

On the other hand, the stock currently carries a Zacks Rank of #3.

So, this combination indicates that Packaging Corp. will most likely beat the consensus EPS estimate.

Does Earnings Surprise History Hold Any Clue?Analysts often consider to what extent a company has been able to match consensus estimates in the past while calculating their estimates for its future earnings. So, it's worth taking a look at the surprise history for gauging its influence on the upcoming number.

For the last reported quarter, it was expected that Packaging Corp. would post earnings of $2.31 per share when it actually produced earnings of $2.35, delivering a surprise of +1.73%.

Over the last four quarters, the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates two times.

Bottom LineAn earnings beat or miss may not be the sole basis for a stock moving higher or lower. Many stocks end up losing ground despite an earnings beat due to other factors that disappoint investors. Similarly, unforeseen catalysts help a number of stocks gain despite an earnings miss.

That said, betting on stocks that are expected to beat earnings expectations does increase the odds of success. This is why it's worth checking a company's Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank ahead of its quarterly release. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.

Packaging Corp. appears a compelling earnings-beat candidate. However, investors should pay attention to other factors too for betting on this stock or staying away from it ahead of its earnings release.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

3 Dividend Leaders Set for Strong Growth in 2025Packaging Corporation of America NYSE: PKG reported lower adjusted earnings for the second quarter of 2026 compared with the prior year, even as sales and EBITDA increased, with management citing strong corrugated demand, higher freight costs and contributions from the recently acquired Greif containerboard business.

Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Mark Kowlzan said the company reported second-quarter net income of $192 million, or $2.15 per share. Excluding special items, net income was $210 million, or $2.35 per share, compared with $224 million, or $2.48 per share, in the second quarter of 2025. Net sales rose to $2.5 billion from $2.2 billion a year earlier, while total company EBITDA excluding special items increased to $486 million from $451 million.

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Packaging Corporation of America: Buy The DipKowlzan said special items totaled $0.20 per share and were primarily related to facility closure costs and write-offs, Wallula Mill restructuring charges, and expenses tied to the acquisition and integration of the Greif containerboard business.

Excluding special items, earnings declined by $0.13 per share from the year-ago quarter. Kowlzan said legacy business earnings were down $0.27 per share, partly offset by $0.14 per share of earnings from the acquired Greif business. The legacy decline was driven by several cost pressures, including higher freight, corporate and other expenses, lower price and mix in packaging, higher labor and operating costs, and higher fiber costs. Those headwinds were partly offset by higher production and sales volumes in packaging and paper, lower maintenance outage expense, and improved paper pricing and mix.

Packaging Corporation of America: A Total Package to Buy and Hold“We exceeded our guidance of $2.33 on the strength of our corrugated volumes, which helped drive cost favorability in areas that we could control and offset higher than forecast costs for freight, recycled fiber, and employee benefits,” Kowlzan said. He added that Greif’s earnings contribution also exceeded expectations.

Packaging Demand Remains Strong In the packaging segment, EBITDA excluding special items was $489 million on sales of $2.3 billion, resulting in a margin of 21.1%. That compared with EBITDA of $453 million on sales of $2 billion, or a 22.6% margin, in the second quarter of 2025.

The company produced 1.415 million tons of containerboard during the quarter. Legacy mills produced 1.209 million tons, roughly even with the first quarter and 14,000 tons above the prior-year period. Acquired mills produced 206,000 tons, which Kowlzan said significantly exceeded their production in any quarter since the acquisition.

President Thomas Hassfurther said corrugated operations “turned in yet another very strong quarter.” Shipments were up more than 24% in total and per day versus last year, with the legacy business up 4.1% and achieving an all-time record for total quarterly shipments. Hassfurther said demand was very strong across the company’s customer base, with particular strength in e-commerce related to Amazon Prime Day and related customers.

Hassfurther said domestic containerboard and corrugated products prices and mix were $0.11 per share below the second quarter of 2025 but $0.04 per share above the first quarter of 2026. He said the company began realizing the first announced price increase in June, expects most of that increase to roll in during July, and expects the second increase to begin in August with realization split between the third and fourth quarters.

The company reduced export containerboard sales during the quarter to build inventory for its corrugated plants. Export volume was 30,000 tons below the first quarter and 22,000 tons below the second quarter of 2025. Hassfurther said the company was able to meaningfully increase inventories in early July and described the current market environment in one word during the question-and-answer session: “tight.”

Greif Integration Exceeds Expectations Management said the acquired Greif business contributed $0.14 per share to earnings in the quarter, above expectations. Chief Financial Officer Kent Pflederer said $0.04 of that contribution came from a depreciation benefit tied to measurement-period adjustments to the valuation of fixed assets on the opening balance sheet. Excluding that benefit, Pflederer said the outperformance was driven largely by higher volumes and strong operational performance.

Hassfurther said PCA now views the acquired business as fully integrated and is operating it as one unit with the legacy business. Pflederer said the transition services agreement with Greif will run through the end of the year as the company brings remaining corrugated plants and one mill-related system onto PCA systems. He said three more plants are expected to transition in the third quarter and the final facilities in the fourth quarter.

Pflederer said PCA is on track, and possibly ahead, on Greif-related synergies. He cited mill production improvements and better reliability, as well as integration benefits that are beginning to show in the numbers. He said the company is “probably” on track to exceed a $30 million run rate by year-end.

Paper Segment Posts Higher Margins The paper segment reported EBITDA excluding special items of $39 million on sales of $157 million, for a 24.9% margin. That compared with EBITDA of $30 million on sales of $146 million, or a 20.8% margin, in the second quarter of 2025.

Kowlzan said paper sales volume was about 3% below the first quarter but about 6% above the second quarter of 2025. Prices and mix were up 2% from both the first quarter of 2026 and the prior-year quarter. He said the company continues to implement previously announced paper price increases and expects to benefit in the third quarter.

Costs, Outages and Capital Spending in Focus Pflederer said cash provided by operations was $376 million, and free cash flow was $170 million after $206 million of capital expenditures. Other cash uses included dividend payments of $111 million, cash tax payments of $78 million and net interest payments of $54 million. PCA did not repurchase shares during the quarter.

The company continues to forecast 2026 capital expenditures of $840 million to $870 million and depreciation, depletion and amortization of about $710 million, excluding special items. Pflederer said outage expense was $0.34 per share in the second quarter and is now estimated at $0.30 in the third quarter and $0.63 in the fourth quarter, for a full-year total of $1.41 per share.

Kowlzan said operational performance in the quarter was mixed because of production interruptions from utility power outages across the mill system. In response to a question, Pflederer said the outages likely affected production by about 10,000 tons. Kowlzan said the disruptions reinforced the need for gas turbine projects at three key facilities, which he said should reduce or eliminate reliance on the grid at those mills.

Kowlzan said a gas turbine project at the Jackson Mill is in construction and is targeted to come online next year in coordination with Jackson’s annual outage. Projects at Riverville, Virginia, and DeRidder, Louisiana, are moving through environmental permitting, with Kowlzan indicating those units could come online in the first to middle part of 2028.

Third-Quarter Guidance Calls for Higher Earnings Looking ahead, Kowlzan said PCA expects continued strong packaging demand, increased corrugated products volume due to one additional shipping day, and higher containerboard and corrugated prices as price increases are implemented. He also said the company expects one more day of mill operation, lower production impact from packaging maintenance outages and better operating performance across its containerboard mill system.

In paper, PCA expects lower volume and higher prices due to maintenance at International Falls and continued price increase implementation. Freight costs are expected to remain around the elevated levels seen in May and June, while recycled fiber prices are continuing to rise. The company also expects higher chemical and purchased electricity prices, with wood fiber and natural gas relatively flat.

PCA guided for third-quarter earnings of $2.91 per share, excluding special items.

About Packaging Corporation of America (NYSE:PKG)Packaging Corporation of America NYSE: PKG is a leading North American manufacturer of containerboard and corrugated packaging products. The company produces a range of paper-based packaging solutions including linerboard, corrugating medium, corrugated shipping containers, retail-ready packaging and point-of-purchase displays. In addition to core packaging products, Packaging Corporation of America offers packaging design, testing and supply-chain services intended to optimize protection, cost and sustainability for customers.

Headquartered in Lake Forest, Illinois, the company operates an integrated network of mills and corrugated manufacturing facilities across the United States and serves customers throughout North America in industries such as e-commerce, grocery and food & beverage, consumer packaged goods and industrial markets.

This instant news alert was generated by narrative science technology and financial data from MarketBeat in order to provide readers with the fastest reporting and unbiased coverage. Please send any questions or comments about this story to [email protected].

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Key Takeaways Packaging Corp is expected to report Q2 revenues of $2.40B, up 10.7% y/y, with EPS projected to fall 6.8%.PKG expects the Greif containerboard business to become accretive after a first-quarter earnings drag.PKG Packaging volume and pricing are expected to improve, while Paper revenues and operating income may rise. Packaging Corporation of America (PKG - Free Report) is set to release second-quarter 2026 results on July 22, after the closing bell.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PKG’s second-quarter revenues is pegged at $2.40 billion, indicating 10.7% growth from the year-ago reported figure.

The consensus estimate for earnings is pegged at $2.31 per share. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PKG’s second-quarter earnings has moved south in the past 60 days. The estimate indicates a year-over-year dip of 6.8%.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

PKG’s Earnings Surprise HistoryPackaging Corp’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimates in two of the trailing four quarters and missed in the other two, the average surprise being a 1.3%.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

What the Zacks Model Unveils for Packaging CorpOur model does not predict an earnings beat for PKG this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. That is not the case here, as you can see below.
You can uncover the best stocks before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Earnings ESP: Packaging Corp has an Earnings ESP of -0.18%.

Zacks Rank: PKG currently carries a Zacks Rank of 3.

Factors Likely to Have Shaped PKG’s Q2 PerformancePackaging Corp closed the acquisition of the containerboard business of Greif, Inc (GEF - Free Report) in September 2025. The Greif containerboard business includes two containerboard mills with approximately 800,000 tons of production capacity, and eight sheet feeder and corrugated plants located across the United States. While Greif was a 6-cent-per-share drag in the first quarter of 2026 due to storm disruption and higher freight and recycled fiber costs, management expects the acquired operations to be accretive to earnings in the second quarter. This is likely to have aided the Packaging segment in the to-be-reported quarter. 

Our model predicts the Packaging segment’s volume to rise 3.6% year over year. The price and mix impacts for the Packaging segment are expected to have been favorable at 3.3% for the quarter, per our model. 

The estimate for the segment’s quarterly revenues is pegged at $2.14 billion, suggesting growth of 6.9% from the year-ago quarter’s reported number. Our model estimates the segment’s operating income to be $260 million, indicating a dip of 24.9% from the prior-year reported figure.

In the Paper segment, prices and mix are expected to have increased 1.8% year over year. We expect volume to increase 3.6% year over year.

The estimate for the Paper segment’s revenues is pegged at $154 million for the June-end quarter, suggesting growth of 6.6% from the year-ago reported figure. The estimate for the segment’s operating income is $32 million, indicating 24.2% growth from the prior-year quarter’s actual.

Packaging Stock's Price PerformanceOver the past year, PKG shares have gained 18.6% against the industry’s 4.1% decrease.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Stocks That Warrant a LookHere are some companies with the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat in their upcoming releases.

Hubbell Incorporated (HUBB - Free Report) , slated to release second-quarter 2026 results on July 28, has an Earnings ESP of +0.62% and a Zacks Rank of 2 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Hubbell’s second-quarter 2026 earnings is pegged at $5.32 per share, suggesting a year-over-year rise of 7.9%. HUBB has a trailing four-quarter average surprise of 4.7%.

Deere & Company (DE - Free Report) , slated to release third-quarter fiscal 2026 results on Aug. 20, has an Earnings ESP of +6.92% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Deere’s third-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings is pegged at $4.82 per share, suggesting a year-over-year rise of 1.5%. DE has a trailing four-quarter average surprise of 10.2%.