Track market-moving stories before they get noisy

Progressive (PGR - Free Report) came out with quarterly earnings of $4.85 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4.7 per share. This compares to earnings of $4.88 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items.

This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of +3.19%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this insurer would post earnings of $4.84 per share when it actually produced earnings of $4.96, delivering a surprise of +2.48%.

Over the last four quarters, the company has surpassed consensus EPS estimates three times.

Progressive, which belongs to the Zacks Insurance - Property and Casualty industry, posted revenues of $23.01 billion for the quarter ended June 2026, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.37%. This compares to year-ago revenues of $21.62 billion. The company has topped consensus revenue estimates two times over the last four quarters.

The sustainability of the stock's immediate price movement based on the recently-released numbers and future earnings expectations will mostly depend on management's commentary on the earnings call.

Progressive shares have lost about 0.5% since the beginning of the year versus the S&P 500's gain of 10.2%.

What's Next for Progressive?While Progressive has underperformed the market so far this year, the question that comes to investors' minds is: what's next for the stock?

There are no easy answers to this key question, but one reliable measure that can help investors address this is the company's earnings outlook. Not only does this include current consensus earnings expectations for the coming quarter(s), but also how these expectations have changed lately.

Empirical research shows a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions. Investors can track such revisions by themselves or rely on a tried-and-tested rating tool like the Zacks Rank, which has an impressive track record of harnessing the power of earnings estimate revisions.

Ahead of this earnings release, the estimate revisions trend for Progressive was mixed. While the magnitude and direction of estimate revisions could change following the company's just-released earnings report, the current status translates into a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for the stock. So, the shares are expected to perform in line with the market in the near future. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

It will be interesting to see how estimates for the coming quarters and the current fiscal year change in the days ahead. The current consensus EPS estimate is $3.59 on $23.44 billion in revenues for the coming quarter and $17.30 on $92.72 billion in revenues for the current fiscal year.

Investors should be mindful of the fact that the outlook for the industry can have a material impact on the performance of the stock as well. In terms of the Zacks Industry Rank, Insurance - Property and Casualty is currently in the top 43% of the 250 plus Zacks industries. Our research shows that the top 50% of the Zacks-ranked industries outperform the bottom 50% by a factor of more than 2 to 1.

One other stock from the same industry, W.R. Berkley (WRB - Free Report) , is yet to report results for the quarter ended June 2026. The results are expected to be released on July 20.

This insurance company is expected to post quarterly earnings of $1.09 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of +3.8%. The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised 0.2% lower over the last 30 days to the current level.

W.R. Berkley's revenues are expected to be $3.7 billion, up 1.7% from the year-ago quarter.

Key Takeaways Progressive is expected to post Q2 earnings of $4.58 per share, down 6.2% year over year.Net premiums earned are projected to rise 7% to $21.7 billion on policy growth and retention.Investment income is expected to rise 12% to $935.6 million. Higher underwriting costs add pressure. The Progressive Corporation (PGR - Free Report) is expected to witness an improvement in its top line but a decline in its bottom line when it reports second-quarter 2026 results on July 15, before the opening bell.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PGR’s second-quarter revenues is pegged at $23.1 billion, indicating 7% growth from the year-ago reported figure.

The consensus estimate for earnings is pegged at $4.58 per share. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PGR’s second-quarter earnings has moved 2 cents north in the past seven days. The estimate indicates a year-over-year decline of 6.2%.

Decent Earnings Surprise HistoryProgressive’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters and missed in one, the average negative surprise being 0.62%.

What the Zacks Model Unveils for PGROur proven model predicts an earnings beat for Progressive this time around. This is because the stock has the right combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) that increases the chances of an earnings beat.

You can uncover the best stocks before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Earnings ESP: PGR has an Earnings ESP of +5.60%. This is because the Most Accurate Estimate of $4.83 is pegged higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4.58.

Zacks Rank: PGR carries a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Factors Likely to Shape Q2 ResultsProgressive’s second-quarter results are likely to benefit from higher premiums, increased net investment income and stronger fee and service income. Continued improvement in its personal auto and commercial lines businesses is likely to have added to the upside.

A strong product portfolio, leading market position and solid performance across its Vehicle and Property segments, supported by healthy policy retention and growth in policies in force, are likely to have driven an improvement in net premiums earned. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for net premiums earned stands at $21.7 billion, indicating a 7% increase from the prior-year quarter.

The Personal Auto segment is likely to have benefited from higher volumes of new and renewal applications, fueled by increased advertising spending, competitive pricing and agency incentive programs. Growth in policies in force was expected across both the agency and direct channels. The consensus estimate for personal auto policies in force is 40.1 million.

Net investment income is likely to have been aided by a larger invested asset base, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate at $935.6 million, implying 12% year-over-year growth. The company is also expected to have recorded pretax net realized gains on securities, with the consensus estimate at $403.9 million.

On the expense side, higher loss and loss-adjustment expenses, policy acquisition costs and other underwriting expenses are likely to have put upward pressure on overall costs. The consensus estimate for the expense ratio is pegged at 20.

Prudent underwriting practices, combined with relatively limited catastrophe losses, are expected to have supported underwriting profitability. The consensus estimate for combined ratio is 88.43, indicating continued operating strength.

Other Stocks to ConsiderSome other P&C insurance stocks with the right combination of elements to deliver an earnings beat this time around are:

Arch Capital Group (ACGL - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +3.40% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter 2026 earnings is pegged at $2.45 per share, indicating a 5.04% year-over-year decrease.

ACGL’s earnings beat estimates in the last four reported quarters.

The Travelers Companies (TRV - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.02% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter 2026 earnings is pegged at $4.92 per share, indicating a year-over-year decrease of 17.2%.

TRV’s earnings beat estimates in each of the last four reported quarters.

Chubb Limited (CB - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +4.97% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter 2026 earnings is pegged at $6.60 per share, indicating a year-over-year increase of 7.49%.

CB’s earnings beat estimates in each of the last four reported quarters.

In the latest close session, Progressive (PGR - Free Report) was down 2.25% at $215.54. The stock trailed the S&P 500, which registered a daily loss of 0.01%. Elsewhere, the Dow saw an upswing of 0.14%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq depreciated by 0.46%.

The insurer's shares have seen an increase of 11.98% over the last month, surpassing the Finance sector's gain of 2.29% and the S&P 500's loss of 1.4%.

The upcoming earnings release of Progressive will be of great interest to investors. The company's upcoming EPS is projected at $4.47, signifying a 8.40% drop compared to the same quarter of the previous year. Simultaneously, our latest consensus estimate expects the revenue to be $23.12 billion, showing a 6.95% escalation compared to the year-ago quarter.

For the full year, the Zacks Consensus Estimates project earnings of $17.08 per share and a revenue of $92.89 billion, demonstrating changes of -6.41% and +6.84%, respectively, from the preceding year.

It is also important to note the recent changes to analyst estimates for Progressive. These latest adjustments often mirror the shifting dynamics of short-term business patterns. As a result, we can interpret positive estimate revisions as a good sign for the business outlook.

Our research demonstrates that these adjustments in estimates directly associate with imminent stock price performance. Investors can capitalize on this by using the Zacks Rank. This model considers these estimate changes and provides a simple, actionable rating system.

The Zacks Rank system ranges from #1 (Strong Buy) to #5 (Strong Sell). It has a remarkable, outside-audited track record of success, with #1 stocks delivering an average annual return of +25% since 1988. Over the past month, there's been a 4.36% rise in the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate. Currently, Progressive is carrying a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold).

With respect to valuation, Progressive is currently being traded at a Forward P/E ratio of 12.91. This indicates a premium in contrast to its industry's Forward P/E of 11.47.

We can also see that PGR currently has a PEG ratio of 6.69. This metric is used similarly to the famous P/E ratio, but the PEG ratio also takes into account the stock's expected earnings growth rate. As the market closed yesterday, the Insurance - Property and Casualty industry was having an average PEG ratio of 2.42.

The Insurance - Property and Casualty industry is part of the Finance sector. This group has a Zacks Industry Rank of 95, putting it in the top 39% of all 250+ industries.

The Zacks Industry Rank gauges the strength of our industry groups by measuring the average Zacks Rank of the individual stocks within the groups. Our research shows that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1.

Keep in mind to rely on Zacks.com to watch all these stock-impacting metrics, and more, in the succeeding trading sessions.