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FTSE 100 up 71 points to 9,965 Iran and Israel trade attacks, US ceasefire applies only to energy sites Results posted by Kingfisher, Bellway, PZ Cussons 5.05pm: Stocks recover London stocks finished Tuesday’s session in positive territory as conflict in the Middle East continues, adding 71 points at 9,965.
"Following Monday's extreme volatility, markets have markedly calmed down as investors await the next developments", IG chief technical analyst Axel Rudolph said.
“Brent crude rose to around $100 a barrel, recovering part of the prior session’s sharp drop, as volatile trading persisted amid heightened Middle East tensions, growing risks of wider regional involvement and ongoing uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz.”
4.06pm: FTSE lifted by oilers, market encouraged by 'less worse' situation London blue-chips are heading for a modest gain as uncertainty over the war in the Middle East continues, though European markets have seen gains pared in recent minutes, with Wall Street mixed.
Lifting the Footise are gains for BP and Shell, up 3.7% and 2.8%.
A mixture of utilities, miners and other randoms are filling out the rest of the risers: BT, Games Workshop, Endeavour Mining, Glencore, National Grid and Vodafone.
At the other end, houebuilders, defence and aerospace, and airlines are the most prominent fallers.
This suggests investors are tilting towards hope that a more permanent ceasefire could be agreed, though with a heavy pinch of salt.
In its 'house view' earlier today, UBS said that the wild market gyrations validate its view (and those of most investment houses) that "investors should not attempt to trade geopolitics and should maintain strategic equity holdings".
"Markets are forward-looking and can often trade on the 'second derivative': a situation merely getting 'less worse' can be sufficient for markets to bounce.
"At the same time, the recent sequence of escalation, retaliation, and pause underscores that the path forward remains narrow and conditional."
If Trump's mooted talks are real, they could still fail and would quickly lead to any market bounces reversing.
"Renewed brinkmanship is probable, further strikes and disruptions to energy flows are likely, and future infrastructure destruction is possible."
The Swiss bank said investors "should also be wary of assuming that the path to a restoration of energy flows will be smooth, even if talks prove successful", with the shipping industry needing to develop the confidence that threats have been neutralised.
"Production that has been shut in could take time to bring back online.
"Meanwhile, oil product inventory levels are running low in various economies and could necessitate still higher prices to ration demand before stocks are refilled.
"Against this backdrop, it looks likely that energy prices will remain elevated for at least the near term, weighing on growth, and driving episodic volatility."
3.31pm: Reeves makes clear her commitment to fiscal rules With Rachel Reeves stressing that any support with energy bills will be limited to those who need it most, while also focusing on price gouging at petrol pumps, it seems her main message is her commitment to the fiscal rules.
As well as asking the competition watchdog to oversee potential petrol price gouging, the Chancellor said she will also ask banks and supermarkets how they can help with rising costs.
"Presumably, she will ask them to refrain from putting up prices or interest rates for borrowers. However, this is a big ask since commodity prices and interest rates are generally set by global financial markets," says analyst Kathleen Brooks at XTB.
The government has already announced that it will not hike fuel duty for the 2026/7 fiscal year.
"The Chancellor was not only addressing the electorate today; she was also speaking to the bond market," says Brooks, making clear that the UK’s fiscal rules are iron-clad, and borrowing will not be used to protect better off households.
The energy price cap will be lowered at the start of April anyway, with a 7% decline from next month expected to be a temporary reprieve, since the price cap could rise again in July, in line with recent moves in energy prices.
"This buys the chancellor some time, but if the conflict does come to an end in the next few weeks, the effects of rising energy prices will still be felt in the UK economy for many months. Thus, households may be shielded from the worst of the energy price increases, but pain is coming down the line."
3.12pm: Markets little moved on report Iran open to peace proposals Iran has acknowledged that the US has made an "outreach" over proposals to end the war and Tehran is willing to listen, according to a report from CNN.
Oil markets are not really moving on this, however, though stocks have been edging higher over the past hour.
“There has been outreach between the United States and Iran, initiated by Washington, in recent days, but nothing that has reached the level of full-on negotiations,” the Iranian source said.
Iran has received messages "through various intermediaries to scope out whether an agreement to end the war can be reached.”
Proposals include a ceasefire and "a concrete agreement to end the conflict".
The source said any proposal must also include ending all sanctions imposed on Iran, but that the country is ready to provide guarantees that it will never develop nuclear weapons.
Brent crude is at $102.60 a barrel, having bounced between $101.5 and $103.5 all day.
US stocks have shifted since early trading, with the Dow Jones up 0.2% now. The S&P 500 is still just below flat, while the Nasdaq is down 0.4%.
Earlier, Reuters reported that Iran's negotiating posture has "hardened sharply" since the war began, with the Revolutionary Guards exerting growing influence over decision-making.
"Significant concessions" will be demanded from Washington for mediation efforts lead to serious negotiations, sources in Tehran said.
The report suggested Iran would demand concessions such as guarantees against future military action, compensation for wartime losses and formal control of the Strait of Hormuz, which the US would have a hard time agreeing to.
2.58pm: Reeves measures for households and energy sector Rachel Reeves has said officials will explore targeted cuts to agri-food tariffs to help “bring down food prices”, alongside efforts to ease cost pressures through EU agreements.
The Chancellor also confirmed contingency planning for further energy support, warning “we don’t yet know what the full impact of this conflict will be”.
Reeves said any new package would “provide support for those who need it most”, criticising the previous scheme from 2022 as helping better-off households more than those on lower incomes. She said “the top third of families… got more than a third of the benefit”, arguing a more targeted approach would better control inflation, interest rates and public finances.
The Competition and Markets Authority has been given new powers to "detect and to crack down on price gouging", with “a new anti-profiteering framework".
She says the government "will not tolerate any company exploiting this crisis", a nod to the Troy 'VIP lane' in the Covid pandemic.
The Chancellor also announced that the government will bring forward legislation to implement the recommendations of the Fingleton review, to allow the development of a new generation of nuclear power stations.
The government will change planning rules to allow more power infrastructure to be built, including proposing indemnities for top-priority energy security projects, and will also bring the next renewable auction forward to July, as well as "driving forward negotiation" on the UK’s participation in the EU internal energy electricity market.
2.42pm: Holding gold, buying 3i Gold's collapse this month has been jarring, with prices falling from above $5,200 to below $4,200 an ounce earlier this week, the metal's lowest point since late 2025.
It is one of the steepest five-day declines in over four decades, a kind of move tends to shake conviction.
But a bounce back above $4,400 has followed Donald Trump signalling openness to negotiations with Iran.
UBS is making a case that the underlying thesis for gold remains intact, forecasting prices at $5,900 per ounce by early 2027, against a current spot price of around $4,470.
Another note worth flagging is from Citi, which has put 3i Group on what it calls an "upside catalyst watch", arguing the recent share price slump has created an attractive entry point for investors.
The bank estimates the shares are trading around 15% below its net asset value estimate, with core investment Action implicitly valued at just 20 times 2027 forecast earnings, a level that already prices in only modest sales growth of 3-4% over the medium term.
A closely watched investor day on 26 March could act as a near-term catalyst, Citi says.
1.55pm: Wall Street opens lower Wall Street has opened lower, with the Nasdaq slipping 0.9%, the Dow down 0.8% and the S&P 500 falling 0.7% in early trade.
Losses were led by consumer and tech names, with Estée Lauder dropping 7.4%, Fair Isaac down 5.8% and CrowdStrike off 5.0%, while Datadog and Gartner both fell around 4.7%.
Retail and consumer stocks were also weaker, with Dollar General down 4.5% and Best Buy off 3.8%.
Among the Nasdaq's biggest 15 companies, Palantir was the biggest faller, down around 3.5%.
12.56am: Markets in the red The FTSE and other European equity benchmarks are in the red, and US futures are too.
S&P 500 futures traded down overnight before rebounding into the green as trading in Europe opened, then drifted lower.
Both Brent and WTI crude prices are trading back higher, respectively close to $103 and $92 per barrel, up 3% and 4%.
"Investors are still unclear about what happens next," says market analyst David Morrison at Trade Nation. "The fog of war is thick. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed to just about everything, and that should continue to support energy prices.
"This in turn plays into fears of higher inflation, adding to concerns that were building even before hostilities began. The tailwinds from rate cut expectations have turned into a headwind as the probability of future rate hikes gets baked into risk assets."
Like others below, he adds that investors are keen to buy the dip, as it "has worked out well since the lows hit in October 2022".
"Will it work again? Maybe. But investor risk appetite may not be quite as healthy nowadays compared to previous years, particularly as borrowing costs look likely to rise rather than fall. And stock market volatility has risen sharply, suggesting that the risk environment is not as benign as it was, even a few months ago. Time for some caution."
12.14pm: Revolut growing fast and aiming for more Revolut – a privately owned company, but with a widespread presence in the UK banking scene and around the world – has reported a 57% surge in annual profit to $2.3 billion (£1.7 billion), fresh from the news earlier this month that it has gained a full UK banking licence
Revenues rose 46% to $6 billion (£4.5 billion), with growth broad-based, as the customer base grew 30% to 68.3 million retail users across 40 markets, while business customers rose 33% to 767,000. Subscription income was up 67% to $936 million, card payments rose 45% to $1.3 billion, and foreign exchange fees climbed 43% to $800 million.
In the UK specifically, where the firm has not been able to offer lending services as it waited for its full licence, retail and business clients both grew 23% year-on-year.
Chief executive Nik Storonsky, who co-founded the company in 2015, said: "As we transition into a truly global bank, we are proving that our technology-driven operating model continues to drive rapid expansion and record profitability. A decade into this journey, we have only just begun to show what is possible.”
11.43am: UK economic readings likely to get worse As the impact of the Iran war drags on, the readings from today's PMI survey are likely to fall further, says economist Elliott Jordan-Doak at Pantheon Macroeconomics, not unreasonably.
Companies were polled between 12 and 20 March, "before market sentiment deteriorated most sharply as the war escalated, and the 2022 energy price shock suggests that the impact of surging prices can take time to filter into activity, so we think another drop in the PMI in April is a good bet", he says.
"Looking ahead to the rest of the year, we expect activity to remain subdued throughout Q2 and Q3, where we look for quarter-to-quarter GDP growth of 0.0% and 0.1%, respectively."
The PMI showed that businesses have already revised down their expectations of activity over the coming months too.
New orders activity dropped into negative territory, though still in line with its 2025 average, while export orders ended its steady recovery since Trump’s ‘liberation day’ tariff last spring.
Hiring intentions and employment dropped too, though Jordan-Doak says the PMI "has sent a misleading signal on employment growth since the start of the year".
Manufacturing activity holding up better than expected matched the signal from the CBI’s March industrial trends survey.
"Manufacturers are particularly sensitive to oil prices, and sentiment had been weaker than in the services sector because of ongoing tariff uncertainty... Surging input prices suggest that activity will drop in the coming months however," the economist said.
11.21pm: Petrol prices up, retail sales fall There some new info on petrol prices in the UK and retail sales this morning.
The average price of petrol rose to 144.16p per litre yesterday, up from the 131.71p before the US launched strikes on Iran on 28 February.
Meanwhile, diesel has jumped to 166.88p from 140.28p according to the latest government figures released this morning.
Elsewhere, retail sales volumes dropped at a rapid pace in the year to March, marking the quickest decline in nearly six years, according to the latest CBI Distributive Trades Survey out a few minutes ago.
The decline is set to continue at a similarly sharp rate next month.
Retailer chains said March sales were "poor" for the time of year, to a greater extent than last month, the CBI found.
April’s sales are expected to be below seasonal norms, though to a slightly lesser degree.
Total distribution sales volumes (including retail, wholesale, and motor trades) continued to fall in the year to March at a fast rate. Sales are set to contract at a similar pace in April.
11.04am: UK energy policies to deal with Iran war effects The government is mulling a potential plan for targeted energy bill support, targeting those most in need.
Energy minister Michael Shanks told Times Radio: "We are looking at every option. Clearly part of that is, is there a way to target support at people who need it most? I think most people would recognise that as the most efficient use of public money but we also want to make sure that we’re not missing people."
With the conflict in its fourth week, he acknowledges that "although people are really worried, there’s no certainty of how this is going to end or when and so we are looking really carefully at what that longer term support needs to be".
Around lunchtime, Rachel Reeves will give a statement to MPs with more details on what the government is doing and is planning about energy prices.
Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 led to around £40 billion being spent by the state to support households and businsses with energy bills.
The BBC is reporting that the Chancellor's speech will include a section on energy security, including "a promise to crack on with delivering new nuclear power stations", as well as as "a new anti profiteering framework" that may give the CMA some targeted powers to tackle companies proved to be exploiting price rises.
10.40am: UK vet prescriptions to be capped The UK competition watchdog has ordered sweeping reforms to the veterinary services market, including caps on prescription fees, mandatory price lists and new rules requiring large chains to display their ownership, in a package of measures designed to drive down costs for pet owners.
Following up from its first recommendations back in October, the Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) concluded its market investigation today, finding that a lack of transparency had left pet owners unable to make informed choices, leading to weak competition and high prices.
Veterinary practices that are part of larger groups, like CVS Group (AIM:CVSG) and Pets at Home Group PLC (LSE:PETS), must now make their ownership clear on signage, online and at their premises, a significant change given that fewer than half of people using a large chain were aware their practice was part of one.
10.18am: PMI worrying The details of the PMI are worrying, says market analyst Kathleen Brooks at XTB, with input prices jumping to their highest level in three years, "which shows how fast the conflict in the Middle East is impacting the UK economy".
"Business expectations for the year ahead fell sharply, there was a rapid rise in cost pressures across the private sector and the seasonally adjusted input cost index for the survey rose by a whopping 14 points between February and March, the largest monthly acceleration of input cost inflation since 1992.
"The March PMI reading saw a decline in new work received for the first time in 4 months, and respondents noted cautious consumer spending patterns since the onset of the war. Business expectations for the year ahead fell to their lowest level in 9 months, and manufacturers also increased their output costs, which will likely add to upward pressure on the UK’s March CPI report.
"The details of the UK’s PMI report were weaker than the headline figures suggest, and, for now, the headline figures remain in expansionary territory. However, the details suggest that the economic effects from the war are already starting to impact the UK economy, and inflation pressure along with weaker growth will weigh heavily on the UK economy as we move into Q2."
9.42am: UK flash PMI survey shows early impact of Iran war The UK preliminary PMI readings for March are weaker than expected, with the composite PMI falling to 51.0 from 53.7 in February.
The service sector PMI reading was 51.2, weaker than the 52.9 expected, while the manufacturing survey was stronger than expected at 51.4, while expectations were for 50.
Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, which produces the survey, says: “The war in the Middle East has hit the UK economy in March, stalling growth while driving inflation sharply higher.
"Output growth across manufacturing and services has slowed to a crawl as companies blamed lost business directly on the events in the Middle East, whether through heightened risk aversion among customers, surging price pressures, higher interest rates, or via travel and supply chain disruptions.
"Inflationary pressures have surged higher on the back of rising energy prices and fractured supply chains. The acceleration in cost growth in the manufacturing sector was especially severe, being the sharpest since the depreciation of sterling following Black Wednesday in 1992.
"The full impact on inflation and economic growth depends not just on the duration of the war but also the length of disruptions to energy markets and shipping, though March’s PMI numbers clearly underscore how downside growth risks and upside inflation risks have already materialised.
"The Bank of England faces a challenging period where it will need to balance these growth and inflation risks when setting policy, seeking to dampen the potential for the inflation spike to become more engrained while ensuring a hawkish interest rate outlook does not exacerbate downturn risks."
9.28am: FTSE and European counterparts turn negative The FTSE 100 has dived into the red after spending most of Tuesday's first hour in positive territory.
Reports from the Middle East detail strikes from Iran on Israel in retaliation for earlier waves in the other direction. A military site in Iraq was struck earlier. Amazon said last night that its AWS services in Bahrain had been "disrupted" due to drone attacks in the area.
It is following similar moves by mainland European counterparts. While the Footsie is down 0.4% and the more domestically focused FTSE 250 is off 0.9%, Germany's DAX has slipped 0.6% and France's CAC 40 is just below flat.
Oil prices are creeping up. Brent crude stands at $102.3 a barrel.
Mining stocks remain the biggest drag for the London index, with Antofagasta, Anglo American, Fresnillo, Glencore and Rio Tinto all falling between 3% and 1%, as copper prices fall and precious metals flatten off.
Housebuilders and financials are also struggling, with Barratt Redrow and Persimmon both off around 2%, while HSBC and Barclays are leading a group of banks lower, down 1.2-1.7%.
8.56am: Trustpilot and Bellway among bigger fallers A couple of bigger fallers.
Trustpilot shares have dropped over 10% after private equity firm Advent sold a £46 million stake at a discount.
And Bellway is down almost 9% after interim results that showed steady progress, with investors unnerved by the shockwaves from the war in the Middle East that have led to renewed mortgage market volatility.
All the FTSE 350 housebuilders are in red this morning, though it's more likely to be a reflection of wider worries.
Bellway boss Jason Honeyman said: "The ongoing conflict in the Middle East heightens the risk of both inflationary cost pressures and an impact to customer demand, and we have already seen volatility return to the mortgage market."
Nothing new there really.
"Notwithstanding this," he said, "I am confident that our self-help and drive for capital efficiency will help mitigate the impact on our strategy to increase cash generation and shareholder returns."
8.39am: No new UK oil and gas licences Downing Street has said it will not be issuing new oil and gas exploration licences despite a warning from energy trade body Offshore Energies that the UK "urgently" needs a greater supply of domestically produced energy.
A government spokesperson told the Guardian: “Issuing new licences to explore new fields cannot give us energy security and will not take a penny off bills."
The spokesperson also noted that international markets set the price for British billpayers. "The only way to truly protect ourselves from these price spikes is to get off the rollercoaster of fossil fuel markets."
8.15am: FTSE 100 opens higher, held back by miners The FTSE 100 has opened 37 points higher at 9,931.
There's a mix of sectors represented among the top risers: private equity investor 3i Group, medical devices maker ConvaTec, data provider RELX all up over 2%, then Autotrader, Experian, Rightmove and Pearson. Several of those names are shares that were hit by AI-related worries in the first two months of the year.
Among the fallers, miners and housebuilders are the main weight on the index, with Antofagasta down 2.6%, Barratt Redrow falling 1.5%, Anglo American and Persimmon down 1.2%.
8am: Fevertree and Cussons A couple more updates.
Fevertree Drinks posted a 2% rise in full-year revenue to £375 million but the premium mixer brand saw profits diluted due to initial costs from the first year of its US distribution partnership with Molson Coors and a new environmental levy.
Soapmaker PZ Cussons said it expects full-year profit to come in at the upper end of its guidance range after continued strong trading through the third quarter.
Like-for-like revenue rose 6.3% in the three months to 28 February, a slight easing from the 9.5% recorded in the first half.
7.42am: Kingfisher repeats buyback as profits land in line with guidance Kingfisher has rewarded investors by repeating its £300 million share buyback programme after it increased annual profits by 6% last year and eyes further improvements.
The FTSE 100 retailer, which operates the B&Q and Screwfix chains, made adjusted profits of £560 million in the year to 31 January 2026, above the middle of its guidance range of £540-570 million, driven by stronger sales volumes, wider profit margins and tight cost control.
As well as the new buyback, the full-year dividend was also repeated at 12.4p per share.
For the year ahead, the group is guiding for adjusted profit of £565-625 million and free cash flow of £450-£510 million.
7.28am: Investors wait for more headlines While Iran's denial of Donald Trump's claimed peace talks has led to immense caution in markets, yesterday’s price action "suggests that investors are more afraid of missing a post-war rally... than of getting a few entries wrong", says market analyst Ipek Ozkardeskaya at Swissquote. "They continue to look for any hint of optimism."
Meanwhile, central banks are "watching through a more critical lens", she says, with European Central Bank officials, for example, warning that the current energy shock could turn into stagflation if prices remain high and volatile.
"The idea that Trump can act alone and shape outcomes doesn’t hold if the counterparty refuses to engage. Any resolution in the Middle East is also contingent on Iran’s willingness to de-escalate.
"The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively constrained, with only a limited number of tankers crossing the critical waterway," she adds.
Trump’s five-day ceasefire was called just before US trading opened yesterday and is set to end toward the end of the trading week, something that has not passed many by.
"What happens next is anyone’s guess," says Ozkardeskaya. "Market sentiment is fully dependent on war headlines and energy prices. Reactions are highly emotional: investors want the war to end, the latest selloff to be 'the dip', and to catch that dip. But uncertainty remains, and the TACO trade is only sustainable if Iran plays along. So we wait — watching both headlines and data."
Today will offer a first glimpse of how global economic sectors are reacting to rising energy prices and escalating tensions in the Middle East as preliminary March PMI surveys are released for many major economies.
Early releases from Australia and Japan showed weakening in both manufacturing and services PMIs.
7.17am: FTSE 100 called higher as markets encouraged by Trump ceasefire The FTSE 100 has been tipped to make a tentative recovery on Tuesday morning, with energy prices more becalmed as markets wait to find out if Donald Trump's mooted peace talks with Iran have any weight.
Futures for London's blue-chip index are pointing to a rise of 16 points in early trade, after yesterday saw an early 240-point loss swing to a 100-point intraday gain before finishing at 9,894.15, 24 points lower than it finished the previous week.
The swing followed President Trump saying he would postpone planned military strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure following what he described as “very good and productive” talks with Tehran, though Iran soon snapped back that there had been "no direct or indirect contact" with the US.
Nevertheless, US stocks rose strongly, with the Dow Jones and Nasdaq Composite indices both climbing 1.4% and the S&P 500 gained 1.2%.
Asian markets are in green this morning too, with the Hang Seng up 2.5% in Hong Kong, while the benchmarks in Tokyo, Shanghai and Mumbai are up around 1.4-1.8%.
Brent crude oil stands at just under $102 per barrel, down from $112 24 hours ago.
