Track market-moving stories before they get noisy

The enterprise software giant and a company with exorbitant data center construction commitments, Oracle (NYSE: ORCL), is scheduled to report its first-quarter (Q1) fiscal 2027 (FY2027) earnings on Thursday, September 10, in a move that is already driving the stock market.

Adobe and Oracle both report earnings soon, but one carries a debt load that could turn a portfolio anchor into a leveraged bet on AI infrastructure holding together.

Oracle is undercutting AWS on price and piling up a backlog that defies expectations, but one of these cloud giants is bleeding cash to get there. The question is whether a discount challenger can actually dethrone the incumbent before its…

Oracle (NYSE:ORCL | ORCL Price Prediction) and Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) both closed fresh quarters that reframe the cloud pecking order. Oracle is signing hyperscale AI contracts at a pace that squeezes AWS from below on price. Comparing the two is a debate about who sets AI infrastructure pricing for the next decade.

OCI Sprints. AWS Compounds. Oracle’s Q4 FY2026 showed cloud infrastructure revenue climbing 93% year over year to $5.79 billion, with total remaining performance obligations exploding to $638 billion, up 363%. Of that backlog, $75 billion is tied to bring-your-own-hardware or prepaid GPU deals. Global GPU utilization sits at 97.5%, suggesting demand is real.

Amazon’s Q2 answered with muscle. AWS revenue reached $42.23 billion, up 37%, the fastest growth in 18 quarters, at a 39.4% operating margin. CEO Andy Jassy said AI and Chips each cleared $25 billion annualized run rates, and AWS backlog reached $496 billion.

Discount Hyperscaler Meets the Incumbent Lens Oracle Amazon (AWS) Core Bet Chip-neutral, customer-funded GPUs Custom silicon (Trainium, Graviton) Pricing Angle Lowest-cost infrastructure, outcome-based Graviton 30% to 40% better price performance Capital Load FY26 free cash flow -$23.69B TTM free cash flow -$7.6B Key Vulnerability Debt raise near $40B in FY27 Enterprise price pressure from OCI Oracle’s pitch is that customers can prepay, bring their own GPUs, and access Oracle’s operations layer. Multicloud database revenue jumped 404% in Q4, embedded inside AWS, Google, and Microsoft regions. Amazon’s counter is vertical: Graviton is used by 98% of AWS’s top 1,000 EC2 customers, and Anthropic plus OpenAI have made multi-gigawatt Trainium commitments.

Margin Math Is the Next Referee Watch whether Oracle’s promised high-20s ROIC at the project level shows up as gross margin recovers. Q1 FY27 guidance calls for cloud revenue growth of 58% to 64%. Track whether AWS holds that 39% margin as Oracle’s pricing bleeds into enterprise renewal talks. Amazon’s Q3 operating income guide of $22.5B to $26.5B is the first test.

Why I Lean Toward AWS for Now, With One Eye on Oracle I trust the AWS cash engine more today. Oracle stock is down 27.98% over one year, and the FY27 financing plan of roughly $40 billion in debt and equity gives me pause. Amazon, up 9.69% over one year, funds its buildout from operating cash flow across retail, ads, and AWS. Oracle offers higher-variance turnaround torque if the RPO converts cleanly, while AWS offers scale, silicon, and margin durability.

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

A Morgan Stanley price target raise just reignited the AI cloud infrastructure trade, sending Oracle surging on a day when the broader market slipped into the red. Whether the rally reflects genuine conviction or a short-term narrative reset is the…

This post may contain links from our sponsors and affiliates, and Flywheel Publishing may receive compensation for actions taken through them.

AI cloud infrastructure names are moving higher Tuesday morning after a sell-side re-rating on Oracle (NYSE:ORCL | ORCL Price Prediction) reignited enthusiasm across GPU cloud peers. Morgan Stanley’s price target raise is the day’s catalyst, and it’s pulling CoreWeave (NASDAQ:CRWV) along with it as investors extend their AI infrastructure exposure across both hyperscale and pure-play GPU cloud names.

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY) is down 0.12%, so cloud infrastructure names are rising against a softer tape. No dedicated cloud sector fund carried a same-day figure, so the broad-market benchmark alone anchors the framing contrast today.

Oracle stock is up 5% to $167.15 in early trading. Meanwhile, CoreWeave stock is up 3% to $92.20 on the same AI infrastructure tailwind.

Morgan Stanley Price Target Raise Lifts Oracle Morgan Stanley raised its Oracle price target, and that’s the trigger behind Tuesday’s move. The raise validates the market’s AI infrastructure spending case and lifts sentiment around Oracle’s cloud pipeline heading into a fresh reporting window.

Oracle’s most recent earnings offer a constructive backdrop. Its Q4 FY2026 report on June 10 showed Cloud Infrastructure revenue up 93% year over year (YoY) to $5.79 billion, and its Remaining Performance Obligations surged 363% to $638 billion.

That RPO figure includes $75 billion tied to prepaid or customer-supplied GPU AI contracts. Oracle’s management confirmed a $90 billion FY2027 revenue target and raised non-GAAP EPS guidance to $8.05.

On the financing side, the bear case still sits with the capital plan. Oracle plans to raise approximately $40 billion through debt and equity in FY2027, and its free cash flow was negative $23.7 billion for FY2026 on $55.7 billion of capex. A Morgan Stanley re-rating tells investors the sell-side is now willing to underwrite that capital plan against expected AI cloud revenue growth.

Two Different Year-to-Date Stories Oracle stock was down 14% year to date (YTD) through Monday’s close, so today’s gain reads as a recovery move off a weak year. At the same time, CoreWeave stock was up 28% YTD, so its participation extends an already-strong run.

That gap matters for how investors size their exposure. For CoreWeave, whose Q2 2026 revenue reached $2.6 billion, up 112% YoY, and whose backlog sits near $104 billion, today’s move layers onto elevated AI infrastructure enthusiasm (we profiled seven suppliers powering that data-center buildout beyond the chipmakers in a free report here). Oracle, by contrast, gets a narrative refresh from the sell-side re-rating after a rough stretch that saw shares fall well off their 52-week high of $341.82.

CoreWeave’s own capex profile mirrors Oracle’s in intensity if not scale. Its full-year 2026 capex guidance stands at $35 billion to $39 billion, and management raised its year-end active-power expectation to more than 1.85 gigawatts. CEO Michael Intrator stated, “Demand continues to intensify as the market broadens across sectors, geographies, workloads and generations of GPU architecture.”

Cloud Scorecard Ticker Session Move YTD ORCL up 5% down 14% CRWV up 3% up 28% Snowflake (NYSE:SNOW) is the third leg of the enterprise AI infrastructure trade, but it’s playing a sideline role today. The stock gave back ground late last week after its own guidance-driven run, which puts the cloud group’s second leg squarely in Oracle’s hands today.

The Snowflake setup still supports the broader narrative. Its Q2 FY2027 report on September 2 delivered revenue of $1.55 billion, up 35.1% YoY, non-GAAP EPS of $0.62, and raised FY2027 product revenue guidance to $6.07 billion. CEO Sridhar Ramaswamy stated, “AI is bringing new workloads onto the platform.”

What to Watch Next Traders can watch for a hold above Tuesday’s opening levels into the close, particularly given Oracle’s still-negative year-to-date print and its scheduled Q1 FY2027 earnings release, which Oracle confirmed on September 2. That report is the next hard catalyst for the AI cloud infrastructure case, and it’s where reported cloud growth and RPO trends can either extend or unwind today’s move.

The gap between narrative and reported results is where the risk sits. Shareholders sizing their positions may want to keep their AI infrastructure allocations moderate given the capex intensity underlying both Oracle and CoreWeave, and pair their incremental exposure with defined risk parameters.

Oracle’s next earnings report will be a key confirmation point for the RPO trajectory the sell-side is now underwriting. This single figure has driven the AI cloud narrative all year, and any deceleration could test the multiple Morgan Stanley is now willing to pay.

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

The past year has been a forgettable one for Oracle (ORCL +2.35%) investors, as shares of the cloud computing infrastructure provider have slipped 32% over this period. The tech-laden Nasdaq Composite index, meanwhile, has gained 22% over the past year.

Oracle's poor returns during this period can be attributed to its rising debt and dwindling free cash flow. The company is aggressively building artificial intelligence (AI) data centers to meet the tremendous demand for its cloud infrastructure, which runs AI workloads and database services.

While Oracle's rising capital spending has been a source of concern for investors, I won't be surprised to see it coming out of the rut it is in because of one simple reason -- a massive revenue backlog. Let's see why Oracle's backlog can make it one of the top-performing AI stocks on the market for the next couple of years.

Image source: Getty Images.

Oracle's enormous backlog is going to supercharge growth Oracle released its fiscal 2026 results (for the year ended May 31) on June 10. The company reported a 17% jump in annual revenue to a record $67.4 billion, driven primarily by a 77% increase in its cloud infrastructure revenue to $18.1 billion.

Premium Feature

Moneyball Superscore

75/100

Today's Change

(

2.35

%) $

3.74

Current Price

$

162.52

However, the most important metric in Oracle's fiscal 2026 earnings report was its remaining performance obligation (RPO), the total value of contracts the company has yet to fulfill. Oracle's RPO shot up to $638 billion in fiscal Q4, up by a whopping $500 billion from the year-ago period.

Oracle CFO Hilary Maxson remarked on the company's June earnings call:

This unprecedented level of RPO provides exceptional visibility into our future revenue growth, all supported by long term contractual customer commitments and reflects the strong customer demand we see across both AI infrastructure and cloud services. To give a bit more detail on our RPO, we expect 12% to be recognized in the next 12 months and another 34% between 13 and 36 months.

So, Oracle is on track to accelerate the conversion of its backlog into revenue over the next three years. Maxson's estimate suggests that Oracle will recognize nearly $77 billion in revenue from its RPO in fiscal 2027. It then expects to convert $217 billion of the RPO into revenue in fiscal 2028 and 2029, translating into an annual run rate of $108 billion.

So, Oracle's aggressive infrastructure investments will bear fruit over the next couple of years, setting the company up for healthy growth in revenue and earnings as it accelerates the conversion of RPO into revenue. Not surprisingly, Oracle anticipates that its revenue in fiscal 2027 will increase by 34% to just over $90 billion. That's double Oracle's growth rate in fiscal 2026.

Analysts anticipate Oracle's growth rate to accelerate in fiscal 2028, which isn't surprising, followed by another strong improvement in fiscal 2029.

Data by YCharts

At the same time, Oracle is taking steps to ensure that it keeps capital expenses under check going forward. That's the reason why the company is now asking customers for prepayment or to bring their own hardware. Oracle signed $67 billion in new contracts in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026, and noted that the majority of that figure was either prepaid or fell under the bring-your-own-hardware category.

Oracle also pointed out that it has $75 billion in contracts in the prepaid and bring-your-own-hardware categories. More importantly, Oracle notes that these contracts have "no degradation in margin compared to our other contracts."

Also, Oracle expects its gross margin profile to improve in the future as it begins recognizing more revenue from its RPO. This should ideally translate into stronger growth in Oracle's earnings, paving the way for a solid jump in the company's stock price over the next couple of years.

Strong earnings growth and a cheap valuation point toward terrific upside Analysts are expecting Oracle's earnings to increase by just 5% in fiscal 2027 to $8.06 per share. That's a step down from the 27% increase in the company's non-GAAP earnings per share in fiscal 2026. This near-term drop in Oracle's earnings growth can be attributed to the company's investments in AI data center infrastructure.

However, the good news is that Oracle's bottom-line growth is poised to accelerate next year, driven by its solid backlog.

Data by YCharts

The step-up in Oracle's earnings-per-share growth from just 5% this year to 43% in fiscal 2029 (ending in May 2029) could lead the market to reward the stock with a premium valuation. Oracle is trading at 19 times forward earnings, a discount to the Nasdaq-100 index's forward earnings multiple of 25.

Assuming Oracle stock trades in line with the index's forward earnings multiple after three years and its earnings per share reach $15.69, the company's share price could reach $396. That's almost 2.5x Oracle's current stock price, suggesting big upside over the next three years that could make it one of the best-performing AI stocks through 2028 and beyond.

However, larger gains can't be ruled out, as Oracle could command a premium valuation, so investors should consider buying the stock while it trades at an attractive level.

Tech Stocks‘It looks like OpenAI is turning things around,’ and that’s seen as good news for Oracle, which has a lot riding on the ChatGPT creator’s successUpdated

Investors see Oracle’s fate as heavily tied to OpenAI’s, so it’s good news that the latest ChatGPT model seems to be resonating with users and technology experts.

OpenAI launched ChatGPT-6 Astra last week. The reception online suggests the ChatGPT creator is retaking the crown in an ever-evolving race to create the best artificial-intelligence models. While earlier versions of ChatGPT put AI on the map for many users, Anthropic and Alphabet’s GOOG GOOGL Google have won acclaim for their own models at times over the past few years.

Oracle (ORCL +2.35%) stock jumped 3.4% through 11:30 a.m. ET this morning after not one, not two, but three separate analysts chimed in with endorsements of the tech stock ahead of its upcoming fiscal Q1 2027 earnings report, due to come out after close of trading on Thursday, Sept. 10.

In quick succession, first Oppenheimer analyst Brian Schwartz estimated Oracle stock is worth $275 a share, then Mizuho analyst Siti Panigrahi said $320, followed by Guggenheim analyst John DiFucci setting a $400 price target.

Oracle stock currently costs less than $165.

Image source: The Motley Fool.

Why Wall Street loves Oracle stock All three analysts agree Oracle stock will outperform the stock market over the next 12 months.

Oppenheimer notes that software demand is "strong," while on artificial intelligence, Oracle has an additional gigawatt of capacity coming online, "which could support higher FY27 guidance" as well. Mizuho points out that throughout fiscal 2026, Oracle added only 1.2 GW of AI compute, so adding another gigawatt in Q1 alone suggests things are accelerating.

Premium Feature

Moneyball Superscore

75/100

Today's Change

(

2.35

%) $

3.74

Current Price

$

162.52

What Wall Street worries about Oracle That said, all three analysts admitted to worrying about Oracle's massive capital spending to build out its AI capabilities, the debt Oracle might need to take on to do so, and the stock sales the company will conduct to raise even more cash.

Guggenheim, in particular, advised investors to focus on how much of Oracle's planned $20 billion in fundraising has already taken place in Q1 (i.e., how much more debt Oracle will need to undertake in future quarters). DiFucci says he expects Oracle may need to raise up to $40 billion this year (i.e., twice the amount already expected), with some coming from stock sales.

And Oracle will need even more money in 2028 than in 2027. Caveat investor.

Rich Smith has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Oracle. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) CEO Jensen Huang declared over the weekend that “AGI has arrived,” pointing to OpenAI’s newly launched GPT-6 Astra model as proof. 

OpenAI president Greg Brockman offered a softer version of the same claim, stating that the company is “now moving into the AGI era.”

However, OpenAI has stopped short of a formal AGI declaration, and researchers behind the ARC-AGI benchmark OpenAI cited say a strong score isn’t proof of the real thing.

Whether the label sticks or not, Oracle Corp. (NYSE:ORCL) is the clearest publicly traded proxy for the infrastructure behind the claim. 

Read Next

The company’s $300 billion, five-year compute deal with OpenAI powers the Stargate data-center buildout, while OpenAI trained Astra on more than 100,000 Nvidia GPUs—the same type of chips Oracle is racing to deploy across its cloud infrastructure. 

The OpenAI connection puts Oracle’s earnings, due after the close on Thursday, squarely in focus. Analysts expect fiscal first-quarter EPS of $1.74 on revenue of about $19.14 billion, with cloud revenue growth projected at 58%-64%. 

The report will be the first full look at how the OpenAI contract — a chunk of the $455 billion in remaining performance obligations Oracle disclosed last quarter — is translating into actual cloud revenue.

Oracle stock closed at $158.78 Friday, still down roughly 54% from the $345.72 52-week high hit last September when the OpenAI deal was first announced, though up sharply from a $114.50 low set in late July. 

Wall Street remains broadly bullish, according to Benzinga data: the consensus 12-month price target sits at $263. This implies more than 50% upside from current levels, with targets ranging from a bearish $145 to a bullish $400. 

Skeptics point to real risk in the gap between the price targets. 

Moody’s has flagged counterparty risk given OpenAI’s roughly $12 billion in annualized revenue against a $300 billion commitment, and Oracle’s own capex ramp — guided toward $35 billion-plus for fiscal 2026 — has raised cash-burn concerns even as bulls argue the backlog justifies it.

With Thursday’s earnings the next real test of whether the backlog converts to results, Oracle is shaping up as one stock where the AGI narrative meets the balance sheet.

ORCL Stock Price Activity: Oracle stock was up 2.47% to $162.69 at the time of publication on Tuesday, according to data from Benzinga Pro.

Image: Shutterstock

This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.

Market News and Data brought to you by Benzinga APIs

© 2026 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.

To add Benzinga News as your preferred source on Google, click here.

Shares of Oracle Corporation (ORCL +2.35%) gained ground last month as the company expanded its artificial intelligence deals and as investors renewed some of their optimism in the tech space. Strong quarterly results from a handful of AI cloud companies also helped drive Oracle higher.

As a result, Oracle shares jumped 14.8% in August, according to data provided by S&P Global Market Intelligence.

Image source: The Motley Fool.

An expanding AI footprint Oracle is in the midst of expanding its data center capacity to offer more companies cloud-based AI services. And at the beginning of the month, Oracle's stock posted significant gains amid an expanding partnership with Alphabet's Google.

The company said that Google will integrate its latest Gemini AI models directly into Oracle's AI Agent Studio, which will enable Oracle's Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) customers to create and deploy AI agents. This was of particular interest to Oracle shareholders because the company has invested heavily in expanding its OCI to compete in the AI space.

Oracle's share price continued higher during the month after fellow tech peer Microsoft reported strong quarterly results, including $100 billion in annual revenue from its Azure cloud. Investors largely viewed that as proof that investing in building out AI infrastructure can pay off.

Oracle investors have been worried about the company's surging capital expenditures, which rose 162% in fiscal 2026 to $55.7 billion. Microsoft's recent success helped reassure Oracle shareholders that the company could similarly benefit.

And finally, Oracle's share got an additional boost when CoreWeave reported second-quarter revenue growth of 112%, and Nebius reported second-quarter sales that jumped 454%. Both of these companies provide cloud computing to customers, and their rapidly expanding revenue encouraged Oracle shareholders that Oracle is on the right path as it expands its AI cloud services.

Premium Feature

Moneyball Superscore

75/100

Today's Change

(

2.35

%) $

3.74

Current Price

$

162.52

Oracle continues rising, but questions remain Oracle's shares continued to rise in September and recently popped after three analysts raised their price targets for the stock. Their optimism is fueled by Oracle's expanding opportunities in artificial intelligence.

And yet there are still some unanswered questions for Oracle shareholders. The most important being whether the massive financial investments the company is making in AI will actually pay off over the long term.

Investors have grown increasingly skeptical that spending at all costs is the right strategy for an AI company, including Oracle. They'll get some clarity on Oracle's direction later this week when the company reports its fiscal 2027 first-quarter results on Sept. 10.

With Oracle's spending on the rise, and with more likely on the way, Oracle stock could be volatile for a while. It's already down 30% over the past 12 months. I think the stock could still be a good long-term bet, but investors should understand the risks and be prepared for some more share price swings.

Chris Neiger has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Microsoft, and Oracle. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Both software giants report earnings Sept. 10, but Morgan Stanley sees very different setups for the two stocks. Summary

Morgan Stanley raised its Oracle target to $210, implying about 32% upside

Oracle Corp. (ORCL, Financials) and Adobe are scheduled to release earnings on the same day. Morgan Stanley thinks this one is considerably better positioned.

The bank boosted its Oracle price target to $210 from $207 signaling about 32% upside but with an Equal-weight rating.

Analyst Sanjit Singh anticipates Oracle's cloud revenue growth to be near the high end of management's 58% to 64% projection, driven by new compute capacity for AI workloads.

Wall Street estimates suggest Oracle's quarterly revenue will grow approximately 28% to $19.13 billion and adjusted earnings will be $1.74 per share.

Adobe has a different problem. Morgan Stanley has an Underweight rating on the stock with a $240 target, which implies around 10% downside.

Not just one quarter of worry. Investors are anxious to see how Adobe's growth strategy will alter under new leadership. Anil Chakravarthy will succeed longstanding CEO Shantanu Narayen on Dec. 1. That makes Sept. 10 very intriguing.

Oracle needs to prove that its big bet on AI infrastructure is boosting its cloud sales. Adobe needs to sell investors on growth holding up through another big leadership change.

More positive on Oracle in the immediate term is Morgan Stanley.

Disclosures I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and have no plans to buy any new positions in the stocks mentioned within the next 72 hours.

Click for the complete disclosure

Oracle is heading into its latest earnings report with investors focused on one central question: can the software giant’s rapidly expanding artificial intelligence infrastructure business grow fast enough to justify the enormous spending required to build it?

The company, led by Larry Ellison, is scheduled to report quarterly results on Thursday in what could be one of the most closely watched earnings releases of the quarter.

The options market is pricing in a move of roughly 11.2% in either direction following the results, an unusually large potential swing for a company of Oracle’s size.

Wall Street expects revenue of about $19.1 billion, up nearly 28% from a year earlier, with earnings of $1.74 a share.

Oracle shares ORCL, however, have struggled.

The stock has fallen nearly 20% since the start of the year and more than 33% over the past 12 months as investors have become increasingly concerned about the debt and cash requirements associated with the company’s AI infrastructure expansion.

The heart of the debate is Oracle’s planned investment in data centers.

The company expects capital expenditure of roughly $95 billion in fiscal 2027, which runs from June 1 through May 31.

Oracle raised about $43 billion through debt financing in fiscal 2026 and expects to raise approximately $40 billion through a combination of debt and equity in fiscal 2027.

That aggressive funding strategy has made Oracle something of an unusual AI infrastructure play.

While demand for cloud computing capacity is growing rapidly, investors are questioning how quickly that demand will translate into revenue and cash flow.

Bank of America analyst Tal Liani nevertheless sees an attractive risk-reward setup heading into the results.

He maintained a Buy rating and a $240 price target, implying about 51% upside from current levels.

Liani expects Oracle’s infrastructure-as-a-service revenue to grow 25% sequentially and 116% year over year as the company expands its data-center footprint.

Oracle’s infrastructure ramp could accelerate overall revenue growth, while customer prepayments could help alleviate some of the concerns surrounding the company’s financing requirements.

"We favor the risk/reward of Oracle, as we believe Street consensus already captures the challenging balance sheet fundamentals," Liani wrote on Friday, "yet is not fully incorporating the likelihood of revenue growth acceleration related to reaching DC buildout milestones."

Oracle Cloud Infrastructure, or OCI, has emerged as the centerpiece of the company's AI investment story.

Morgan Stanley analyst Sanjit Singh sees a "good setup" heading into earnings and expects cloud revenue growth of 63% from a year earlier.

That would put growth near the upper end of Oracle’s 58% to 65% guidance range for the August quarter.

Singh expects Oracle’s GPU-as-a-service business, which allows customers to rent computing capacity powered by graphics processing units, to be an important contributor.

Recent commentary from CoreWeave and Nebius has also strengthened the case for continued demand.

Both companies have offered upbeat views on pricing for AI infrastructure, suggesting that high demand for computing power could allow Oracle to charge attractive rates as it expands capacity.

Oracle’s most recent fiscal fourth quarter showed just how quickly OCI is growing.

The company reported 93% constant-currency growth in its cloud infrastructure business.

Bernstein analyst Mark Moerdler expects that growth to accelerate during fiscal 2027, with OCI continuing to expand faster than Oracle’s overall revenue.

Although AI infrastructure dominates the investment narrative, analysts argue that investors should not overlook Oracle’s traditional software operations.

Liani expects cloud software-as-a-service revenue to grow 12.8% in the quarter, compared with 10.3% in the previous quarter.

"While Oracle's equity narrative is largely centered on the infrastructure business, we believe the company's traditional software business remains an important component of the investment case," Liani wrote.

Piper Sandler analyst Billy Fitzsimmons also sees potential upside in Oracle’s software operations.

Bookings for NetSuite, the company’s enterprise resource-planning software, accelerated toward the end of the fourth quarter, while Cerner, Oracle’s electronic health-records business, is "returning to growth," Fitzsimmons wrote.

That provides Oracle with another source of recurring revenue while its infrastructure business expands.

Financing remains the biggest questionThe bullish case ultimately depends on whether Oracle can turn its enormous infrastructure investment into revenue and profits quickly enough.

Moerdler said investors remain concerned about Oracle’s profitability and its ability to meet the cash requirements associated with long-term and noncancelable contracts.

The analyst believes the company is nevertheless "nearing the end of their need for additional cash."

He describes Oracle as being in the "early days" of an investment cycle that could eventually accelerate both revenue and profits.

His $325 price target implies that the shares could more than double from around $145.30.

But the timing remains uncertain.

Fitzsimmons highlighted the ongoing debate over when Oracle’s AI infrastructure spending will begin translating into revenue.

Potential delays in data-center construction could further push out the payoff from the company’s enormous capital commitments.

Singh sees another potential catalyst in Oracle’s deferred revenue.

Growth in deferred revenue in the cloud applications business has outpaced reported revenue growth for two consecutive quarters, suggesting that a backlog of future revenue could be building.

That could result in a "modest upward revision" to Oracle’s current fiscal-year revenue and earnings forecasts, potentially giving the stock a positive reaction after earnings.

Thursday’s results could define Oracle’s AI storyThe earnings report therefore represents more than another quarterly test for Oracle.

It could help investors determine whether the company’s transformation into an AI infrastructure powerhouse is progressing quickly enough to justify its massive capital requirements.

For bulls, accelerating OCI growth, strong AI demand, improving pricing and customer prepayments could demonstrate that Oracle is building capacity ahead of a powerful revenue cycle.

For bears, data-center delays, rising debt and uncertain returns on AI spending could reinforce concerns that the company is taking on too much financial risk too early.

As Moerdler put it, "understanding the rest of the company and its ability to fund investment and drive profits are critical whether you are a bull or a bear."

"In virtually every conversation we have on [Oracle], our clients are interested in not simply what is driving current numbers but getting a sense of how the business will evolve over time as they build all the AI data center capacity" to fulfill remaining performance obligations, he said.

With the options market anticipating an 11.2% post-earnings move, investors appear to be preparing for Oracle to provide some answers.

The size of Thursday’s reaction may ultimately depend less on the headline earnings numbers than on what management says about the cost, timing and returns of its AI infrastructure bet.

California State Teachers Retirement System lifted its position in shares of Oracle Corporation (NYSE:ORCL – Free Report) by 14,636.4% in the 2nd quarter, according to its most recent Form 13F filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The firm owned 382,756,945 shares of the enterprise software provider’s stock after buying an additional 380,159,589 shares during the period. California State Teachers Retirement System owned about 13.29% of Oracle worth $56,093,030,000 at the end of the most recent quarter.

A number of other hedge funds have also modified their holdings of the company. FSA Wealth Management LLC acquired a new position in shares of Oracle during the 3rd quarter worth about $28,000. Mpwm Advisory Solutions LLC lifted its stake in Oracle by 76.9% in the 3rd quarter. Mpwm Advisory Solutions LLC now owns 115 shares of the enterprise software provider’s stock valued at $32,000 after purchasing an additional 50 shares during the last quarter. Turning Point Benefit Group Inc. acquired a new stake in Oracle in the 3rd quarter valued at about $35,000. HFM Investment Advisors LLC grew its holdings in Oracle by 290.9% during the fourth quarter. HFM Investment Advisors LLC now owns 129 shares of the enterprise software provider’s stock worth $25,000 after purchasing an additional 96 shares during the period. Finally, Basepoint Wealth LLC bought a new position in Oracle during the fourth quarter worth about $26,000. 42.44% of the stock is currently owned by institutional investors.

Oracle Stock Performance NYSE:ORCL opened at $158.65 on Monday. Oracle Corporation has a twelve month low of $114.50 and a twelve month high of $345.72. The company has a quick ratio of 1.12, a current ratio of 1.12 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 3.21. The stock’s 50-day simple moving average is $139.73 and its 200 day simple moving average is $160.31. The firm has a market capitalization of $456.99 billion, a PE ratio of 27.21, a price-to-earnings-growth ratio of 1.18 and a beta of 1.74.

Oracle (NYSE:ORCL – Get Free Report) last posted its earnings results on Wednesday, June 10th. The enterprise software provider reported $2.11 EPS for the quarter, topping analysts’ consensus estimates of $1.96 by $0.15. Oracle had a net margin of 25.37% and a return on equity of 58.62%. The firm had revenue of $19.18 billion during the quarter, compared to analysts’ expectations of $19.10 billion. During the same quarter in the prior year, the business earned $1.70 earnings per share. The business’s revenue for the quarter was up 20.6% compared to the same quarter last year. Oracle has set its Q1 2027 guidance at 1.720-1.760 EPS and its FY 2027 guidance at 8.050-8.050 EPS. On average, analysts anticipate that Oracle Corporation will post 6.49 EPS for the current fiscal year. Oracle Announces Dividend The business also recently disclosed a quarterly dividend, which was paid on Friday, July 24th. Investors of record on Friday, July 10th were paid a $0.50 dividend. The ex-dividend date of this dividend was Friday, July 10th. This represents a $2.00 annualized dividend and a yield of 1.3%. Oracle’s dividend payout ratio is presently 34.31%.

Insider Buying and Selling In other Oracle news, Vice Chairman Jeffrey Henley sold 400,000 shares of the firm’s stock in a transaction that occurred on Wednesday, June 24th. The shares were sold at an average price of $159.16, for a total value of $63,664,000.00. Following the sale, the insider owned 400,000 shares in the company, valued at $63,664,000. This trade represents a 50.00% decrease in their ownership of the stock. The sale was disclosed in a filing with the SEC, which is available at this link. The transaction was executed under a pre-arranged Rule 10b5-1 trading plan. 40.90% of the stock is currently owned by insiders.

Analyst Upgrades and Downgrades A number of research firms recently weighed in on ORCL. UBS Group reissued an “outperform” rating on shares of Oracle in a report on Friday, August 21st. Royal Bank Of Canada reaffirmed a “sector perform” rating and set a $190.00 price target on shares of Oracle in a report on Friday. Mizuho set a $320.00 price objective on shares of Oracle in a research report on Wednesday, June 3rd. TD Cowen decreased their price objective on shares of Oracle from $300.00 to $240.00 and set a “buy” rating on the stock in a report on Tuesday, September 1st. Finally, Wolfe Research reissued an “outperform” rating and issued a $225.00 price objective on shares of Oracle in a research report on Thursday, June 11th. Two research analysts have rated the stock with a Strong Buy rating, twenty-eight have issued a Buy rating, nine have given a Hold rating and one has assigned a Sell rating to the company’s stock. According to MarketBeat.com, the company currently has a consensus rating of “Moderate Buy” and an average price target of $261.68.

Read Our Latest Analysis on Oracle

Oracle News Roundup Here are the key news stories impacting Oracle this week:

Positive Sentiment: Oracle’s expanded, multi-year partnership with Hewlett Packard Enterprise (NYSE: HPE) calls for HPE Juniper networking equipment, routing, switching and support across Oracle’s global AI data centers. The agreement reinforces expectations for gigawatt-scale infrastructure expansion and potentially makes Oracle’s massive cloud backlog more achievable. HPE and Oracle Deepen Networking Collaboration Positive Sentiment: Investors are focused on Oracle’s reported $638 billion backlog and management’s target for roughly 58%–64% cloud growth. Converting more of that backlog into revenue would support the bullish view that AI contracts can accelerate Oracle’s cloud business. Oracle Jumps Before Its $638 Billion Backlog Faces Reality Positive Sentiment: Several analysts remain constructive despite recent target reductions. Jefferies maintained a Buy rating with a $290 target, while RBC reaffirmed Sector Perform with a $190 target, leaving substantial potential upside based on the cited share price. Oracle Stock Could Be Software’s Next Big Winner Neutral Sentiment: Options markets imply Oracle could move about 11% or more after earnings, highlighting unusually high event risk. Investors want evidence that heavy AI infrastructure spending is producing durable revenue growth and improving cash generation. Oracle Stock Could Swing 11% on Q1 Earnings Negative Sentiment: Oracle’s investment program is weighing on financial quality: fiscal 2026 free cash flow was reported at negative $23.7 billion, leverage is elevated, and the company may require substantial additional financing. S&P’s BBB- rating and the prospect of higher interest rates increase sensitivity to borrowing costs. Negative Sentiment: Analysts have trimmed some fair-value estimates, reflecting concerns about capital expenditures, debt, earnings quality and whether Oracle’s backlog can be converted profitably. The September 10 report and forward spending guidance are therefore critical tests of the AI-cloud strategy. Oracle Stock Gets Fair Value Trim Oracle Profile (Free Report)

Oracle Corporation is a multinational technology company that develops and sells database software, cloud engineered systems, enterprise software applications and related services. The company is widely known for its flagship Oracle Database and a portfolio of enterprise-grade software products that support data management, application development, analytics and middleware. Over recent years Oracle has expanded its focus to include cloud infrastructure and cloud applications, positioning itself as a provider of both platform and software-as-a-service solutions for large organizations.

Oracle’s product and service offerings include Oracle Database and the Autonomous Database, Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI), enterprise resource planning (ERP), human capital management (HCM) and supply chain management (SCM) cloud applications (often grouped under Oracle Fusion Cloud Applications), middleware such as WebLogic, and developer technologies including Java and MySQL.

Recommended Stories Five stocks we like better than Oracle AI Token Costs Are Changing the Hardware vs. Software Debate 3 ETFs That Could Move as Rate Expectations Shift 3 Stocks With September Catalysts Investors Shouldn’t Ignore Ollie’s Bargain Outlet Stock Falls on Weak Comps Despite Margin Gains

Receive News & Ratings for Oracle Daily - Enter your email address below to receive a concise daily summary of the latest news and analysts' ratings for Oracle and related companies with MarketBeat.com's FREE daily email newsletter.

Oracle
ORCL +3.08% 92

stock is flashing a stunning pre-earnings signal as options traders brace for an 11.2% move following its fiscal first-quarter report on September 10.

At $157.62, the implied swing is about $17.65, creating a post-earnings range near $140 to $175. Options do not predict direction. They show the volatility priced into the event.

Wall Street expects revenue of $19.13 billion, up nearly 28%, and earnings of $1.74 per share. The test is whether Oracle can convert AI demand into profitable growth without another spending surge.

Oracle's $638 billion backlog equals 9.5 times its $67.4 billion fiscal 2026 revenue. Cloud-infrastructure sales jumped 93% last quarter, showing demand. However, backlog is not revenue. Oracle must deploy servers and data centers enough to fulfill contracts, recognize sales and collect cash.

The financing tension is clear. Oracle generated $32 billion in operating cash flow last year, yet AI data-center investments drove free cash flow to negative $23.7 billion. The company plans to raise $40 billion during fiscal 2027, increasing investor focus on leverage, funding costs and capital returns.

OpenAI provides a catalyst and concentration risk. Its GPT-6 Astra release supported Oracle shares because OpenAI signed a $300 billion cloud-rental agreement with Oracle last year. Evidence that deployment is progressing could validate Oracle's buildout, while delays would amplify doubts.

Analysts remain bullish. Morgan Stanley raised the target from $207 to $210, while Bank of America maintained a Buy rating and $240 target. Consensus is Strong Buy, with a $254.68 target implying 60.4% upside. Oracle remains down 19% this year.

For investors, the report turns on three metrics: cloud growth, backlog conversion and the capex-to-cash-flow trajectory. Strong sales with deteriorating cash flow may disappoint. Better execution and cash generation could unlock a rebound. With an 11.2% swing priced, the market is preparing to deliver a verdict.

Oracle has shed nearly a fifth of its value while its cloud peers climbed, and one Wall Street firm just slapped a price target on it that implies the stock needs to do something it has never done before.

This post may contain links from our sponsors and affiliates, and Flywheel Publishing may receive compensation for actions taken through them.

Oracle currently trades at $158.78, while the consensus Wall Street price target sits at $242.05. That leaves the stock trading roughly 52% below where the analyst community, on average, thinks it belongs.

Oracle (NYSE:ORCL | ORCL Price Prediction) is the enterprise database giant that has spent the last two years reinventing itself as an AI infrastructure builder. Oracle Cloud Infrastructure now sits inside Amazon, Microsoft, and Google data centers, and management has staked the company’s future on the same GPU buildout thesis powering the rest of the megacap tech complex.

The gap matters because the average target is only the floor of the bull case. Guggenheim’s John DiFucci carries a $400 price target and a Buy rating, which is currently the Street high. From here, that would mean the stock more than doubles.

A Cash-Flow Sticker Shock That Erased a Year of Gains The selloff has been driven by one number: capital spending. Oracle burned through $55.66 billion in capex in fiscal 2026 against $31.98 billion in operating cash flow, producing negative free cash flow of roughly $23.69 billion. Management then guided fiscal 2027 net cash capex to around $70 billion and said it plans to raise about $40 billion in debt and equity, including a $20 billion at-the-market equity issuance.

Investors sent the stock down 17.74% year to date and 27.98% over the past twelve months, even as the S&P 500 climbed 12.94% in 2026. Shares have traveled from a 52-week high of $341.82 to a low of $114.50, a peer-shaming drawdown driven almost entirely by fears that the AI capacity binge will compress margins and dilute shareholders before revenue catches up.

The damage is company-specific. Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet all posted double-digit cloud growth in the same window and their shares held up. Oracle stands alone as the hyperscaler-adjacent name Wall Street chose to punish.

Why the Sell-Side Is Doubling Down Instead of Downgrading Analysts are looking past the cash burn to a $638 billion remaining performance obligation, up 363% year over year. That backlog is the entire bull case in one number. Management reaffirmed a long-term outlook on the June call of a 31% revenue CAGR and 28% EPS CAGR through fiscal 2030, and CFO Hilary Maxson said steady-state return on invested capital for the GPU and CPU infrastructure business runs in the high 20s at the project level.

Coverage is heavily positive. Alpha Vantage’s tally shows 8 Strong Buy, 28 Buy, 7 Hold, and 1 Sell ratings, and the estimate revision trend has skewed upward with 21 upward EPS revisions against 12 downward for fiscal 2027 over the past 30 days. Fiscal 2027 revenue is guided to $90 billion, with non-GAAP EPS raised to $8.05.

Guggenheim’s $400 target is anchored on three pillars: OCI winning share as a lower-cost AI training and inference platform, the RPO backlog compounding through multi-cloud database partnerships with AWS, Azure, and Google Cloud, and a high-margin migration cycle as on-premise databases shift to Autonomous Cloud Database. The next test comes fast. Oracle reports Q1 fiscal 2027 on September 10, with cloud revenue guided to grow 58% to 64%.

Oracle Is the Cheap Name in a Fully Priced Cloud Cohort The peer group did not sell off with Oracle. Every direct comp is up in 2026, which sharpens the argument that Oracle is a story-specific dislocation.

Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) trades at $499.70, up 3.98% year to date, against an average target of $572.92, implying roughly 15% upside. Coverage is nearly unanimous with 14 Strong Buy, 38 Buy, and 3 Hold calls, but the upside is a fraction of what analysts see in Oracle.

Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) sits at $258.51, up 12% YTD, with a consensus target of $328.17 and implied upside of roughly 27%. Analyst posture skews strongly bullish at 15 Strong Buy, 44 Buy, and 2 Hold, and recent commentary has centered on AWS accelerating to 37% growth.

Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL) trades at $338.46, up 8.34% YTD, against an average target of $428.07 for about 26% implied upside. Coverage runs 13 Strong Buy, 45 Buy, and 5 Hold, with Google Cloud’s 82% growth rate anchoring the case.

The largest implied upside in the group sits with Oracle by a wide margin. Even the average target represents a 52% move, and Guggenheim’s $400 print stands at roughly 152% upside. No hyperscaler peer offers a comparable dislocation.

Data Points That Frame the Setup Oracle trades at $158.78 with a consensus target of $242.05, drawn from 42 analysts covering the name. Implied upside to consensus is roughly 52%. The stock’s 17.74% year-to-date decline compares to a 12.94% gain for the S&P 500 through the same period, a spread of more than 30 percentage points.

Forward multiples reflect the reset. Oracle trades at roughly 19 times forward earnings against fiscal 2027 EPS guidance of $8.05. The 50-day moving average sits at $139.84, meaning the recent bounce has carried shares above short-term trend but well below the 200-day at $168.78. Shares climbed 9.97% over the past month as buyers began stepping back in ahead of the September 10 earnings report.

Where I Actually Come Down on Oracle Here The constructive case rests on the RPO backlog converting on schedule and the September 10 earnings report validating the 27% to 29% Q1 revenue guide. The path back to $242 is straightforward if cloud growth prints in the guided 58% to 64% band, capex stays disciplined, and the FY27 EPS number of $8.05 holds. Guggenheim’s $400 requires more, specifically OCI taking real share from AWS and Azure while the Autonomous Database migration cycle compounds.

The bear case sharpens if the $40 billion in planned debt and equity raises turns into meaningfully more dilution, if GPU sourcing costs squeeze the 30% to 40% OCI margin profile management has advertised, or if a handful of AI contracts fail to convert into recurring revenue at the pace RPO implies. Free cash flow at negative $23.69 billion leaves no cushion.

My lean is constructive. The consensus 52% upside is too wide to ignore in a cloud cohort that remains fully priced, and the estimate revision trend is quietly moving the right way. Guggenheim’s double is a stretch that requires everything to break correctly, but the base case at $242 does not.

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

The four largest hyperscalers, Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Meta Platforms, will spend $725 billion in capital expenditures this year. UBS projects that over the three years from 2026 to 2028, hyperscalers could spend as much as $4.1 trillion on AI infrastructure.

Oracle (ORCL +3.08%) and NuScale Power (SMR -0.51%) are two stocks I own that play different roles in the AI build-out. Compute and power are both valuable, scarce resources in this evolving AI world, and Oracle and NuScale Power could both benefit. Here's what investors need to know.

Image source: The Motley Fool.

Oracle and NuScale Power have this in common Oracle and NuScale Power are separate companies with no contractual links or partnerships. That said, both stocks are at the intersection of AI data centers and next-generation power.

Oracle focuses on artificial intelligence and cloud infrastructure. As with most hyperscalers, the company faces major electricity constraints because next-generation AI infrastructure requires significantly more power for training and inference.

In September 2024, Chairman Larry Ellison publicly stated that Oracle is designing multi-gigawatt (GW) data center campuses to be powered by small modular reactors (SMRs). NuScale Power manufactures SMRs, and its NuScale Power Module is the only SMR to receive standard design approval from the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC).

Oracle is seeing staggering demand for cloud infrastructure The investment theses for Oracle and NuScale hinge on different factors. Oracle has pivoted aggressively into providing cloud infrastructure for hyperscalers. The company's remaining performance obligation, which includes massive commitments from frontier AI developers, has surged 363% year over year to $638 billion.

The company is experiencing staggering growth in cloud infrastructure, with revenue from this business increasing 93% from last year to $5.8 billion. During its fourth quarter (ending May 31), Oracle signed $67 billion in AI infrastructure contracts. The company has expanded on agreements with Amazon Web Services and Google Cloud, and its multi-cloud database revenue exploded 404% year over year.

Investor concerns have emerged around Oracle's massive data center expansion strategy. In fiscal year 2026, the company generated $32 billion in operating cash flow while spending $55.7 billion on capital expenditures. The company also has over $122 billion in debt. If its data centers don't open on schedule, revenue could be delayed while capex and interest spending remain high.

Premium Feature

Moneyball Superscore

75/100

Today's Change

(

3.08

%) $

4.74

Current Price

$

158.78

That said, the stock has taken a big hit in the past year and is down 54% from its 52-week high. Analysts project solid growth ahead, with earnings per share expected to grow 36% in 2027 and another 39% in 2028.

NuScale develops next-generation nuclear reactors and has experienced significant volatility NuScale Power is a start-up in the nuclear energy sector, focusing on SMRs that could transform the way we use nuclear energy. The stock has also been highly volatile, and today it trades 83% off its 52-week high of $57 per share. For aggressive investors looking to play the growth in nuclear power and advanced SMRs, NuScale's stock looks far more appealing today than it did one year ago.

Premium Feature

Moneyball Superscore

51/100

Today's Change

(

-0.51

%) $

-0.05

Current Price

$

9.70

NuScale has fallen for a couple of reasons. For one, its largest shareholder, Fluor, sold its position in the nuclear start-up from the end of last year through early 2026. On top of that, NuScale has yet to secure any firm commitments beyond its project in Romania.

That could all change soon. NuScale is working with ENTRA1 Energy to help it deploy its SMRs at scale. ENTRA1 will serve as a developer, financier, and owner of ENTRA1 Energy Plants, powered by NuScale SMRs.

ENTRA1 could help NuScale secure a massive agreement with the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA). Last year, the parties entered into a collaborative agreement to explore deploying up to 6 GW of NuScale's SMRs. The move helps NuScale deploy its technology, but it has also faced scrutiny over milestone payments that could reach up to $4 billion.

No firm commitment has been made. NuScale's management hopes to secure a deal before the end of this year, which could be a massive catalyst for NuScale's beaten-down stock.

Should you buy the dip in Oracle and NuScale? Oracle is directly tied to data center demand, but faces risks if demand fails to keep pace with its massive cloud infrastructure expansion. NuScale is a highly speculative play on the future of nuclear energy, and its NuScale Power Modules won't be deployed until the 2030s.

Because of these risks, both stocks have taken a beating this year after staggering returns in 2025. That said, the dip has made both stocks more appealing to long-term investors seeking exposure to the booming growth in artificial intelligence and related power demand.

49.45K Followers

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of IGV, CRM either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

Options traders are bracing for a big move as investors look for proof that Oracle's heavy AI spending is paying off Summary

Options are pricing in an 11.2% move after Oracle reports Sept. 10

Oracle Corp. (ORCL, Financials) has been aggressive in building out its AI cloud business. Now investors want to see what that spending is delivering.

Oracle announces fiscal first-quarter results Sept. 10 and the options market is pricing in a move of around 11.2% in either direction. That's a tremendous swing for a corporation the size of Oracle.

Street analysts expect about $19.13 billion in revenue, up nearly 28% from a year ago, and earnings of $1.74 a share.

The good news is demand has been strong. As companies spend more on AI computing, Oracle Cloud Infrastructure has been climbing rapidly. The trouble is the cost.

Oracle has spent billions on data centers and equipment, sending free cash flow deep into the red last year and raising questions about how quickly those investments will pay off.

So this quarter is more of an earnings beat. Investors want to see the cloud continue to grow strongly with no further big jump in spending pressure.

Oracle reports profits Sept. 10, and will tell investors about AI demand, capital spending and cash flow.

Disclosures I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and have no plans to buy any new positions in the stocks mentioned within the next 72 hours.

Click for the complete disclosure

15.39K Followers

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, but may initiate a beneficial Long position through a purchase of the stock, or the purchase of call options or similar derivatives in ORCL over the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

Oracle Corp (ORCL +5.69%) finished up 5.7% on Thursday, Sept. 3, 2026, after a Governor of the U.S. Federal Reserve indicated he'd prefer to keep interest rates steady.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite finished Thursday's trading up 1.1% and 1.4%, respectively.

Premium Feature

Moneyball Superscore

75/100

Today's Change

(

5.69

%) $

8.29

Current Price

$

154.04

Fed's Waller signals openness to holding rates steady in September 2026 Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller told Reuters on Thursday that if the next inflation reading shows price increases moderating, he is "willing to support holding the policy rate at its current level." He said that he would prefer to "give disinflation a chance," rather than to raise rates too early.

He did, however, say that he would support a rate hike if the data shows inflation heating up.

The market has seen a hike as increasingly likely, today's comments led to a drop in those expectations, and stocks across the board saw a bump.

Oracle's $43 billion debt load leaves it exposed to Fed rate moves Tech stocks in general tend to be sensitive to interest rate changes, but Oracle is especially so, given its substantial debt burden. The company has watched its free cash flow turn deeply negative as it spends enormous sums in a race to build AI data center capacity.

Image source: Oracle.

Oracle has turned to debt (and equity) to fund the deficit. The company sold $43 billion in bonds last year and expects to raise another $20 billion in the current year, on top of a $20 billion equity raise.

Higher interest rates mean borrowing becomes more expensive and puts further financial strain on a company already on shaky ground.

Johnny Rice has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Oracle. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

HPE President and CEO Antonio Neri discusses the benefits of HPE's networking deal with Oracle and the company's earnings outlook. Speaking with Ed Ludlow on "Bloomberg Tech," Neri says he is seeing "huge growth" in enterprise AI adoption.

Emise dluhopisů souvisejících s AI a technologiemi jsou pro úvěrové investory stále obtížnější ignorovat, a to vzhledem k objemu nové nabídky v poslední době a epizodám zvýšené volatility. To, co bylo zpočátku z velké části jen o americkém segmentu investičního stupně, se nyní rozšiřuje napříč regiony i napříč spektrem úvěrů různé kvality. Společnost Fidelity International se zabývá rozhodováním, které vzniká u strategií zaměřené na výnos bez omezení nějakým benchmarkem, a vysvětluje, proč v současnosti udržuje v tomto sektoru pouze omezenou expozici.

Argumenty ve prospěch dluhopisů souvisejících s AI

„Již dlouho jsme zastánci konceptu „bezpečného výnosu“ (safe yield) u investic s pevným výnosem. Zatímco otazníky ohledně rozvah vyspělých ekonomik a fiskální disciplíny přetrvávají, není pochyb o tom, že některé z největších a nejkvalitnějších úvěrových titulů na světě trpí tím, že musí své dluhopisy oceňovat s přirážkou vůči „bezrizikové“ sazbě, přestože mají výrazně lepší rozvahu než státy, vůči jejichž výnosům se oceňují. V tomto kontextu je získání přibližně 50–100 bazických bodů nad americké státní dluhopisy nebo německé státní dluhopisy například u nezadlužených emitentů s ratingem AA nebo A teoreticky atraktivní příležitostí pro investory zaměřené na celkový výnos.

Velký význam také přikládáme ukazateli „dluh v poměru k EV“ jako užitečnému indikátoru celkového úvěrového rizika. Tento ukazatel může často poskytnout mnohem více informací než tradičnější ukazatele, jako je dluh k EBITDA nebo volný Cash Flow ke dluhu. Dluh v poměru k EV jednoznačně ukazuje, jakou hodnotu trh přisuzuje cenným papírům, které jsou (alespoň teoreticky!) podřízené pohledávkám věřitelů vůči aktivům a peněžním tokům společnosti. Bez ohledu na to, kolik prostředků hyperskalární společnosti v příštích několika letech vloží do AI, jejich hodnota vlastního kapitálu ve výši pravděpodobně 13 bilionů dolarů znamená, že věřitelé se nemusí obávat znehodnocení svých pohledávek.

Dnešní valuace jsou atraktivní. Není pochyb o tom, že technologický sektor se z různých hledisek jeví jako „levný“, ať už jde o relativní ocenění sektoru, spread na jednotku zadlužení nebo spready upravené podle ratingu,“ hodnotí situaci James Durance.

Co nás drží zpátky?

Rychlost a rozsah rozvoje AI jsou tak obrovské, že převyšují jakékoli historické srovnání, které by za něco stálo. Kapitálové výdaje na datová centra, které v roce 2027 dosáhnou více než 3 % amerického HDP a během pouhých dvou let přidají 1,7procentního bodu k HDP, představují nejrychlejší investiční boom v historii (jak uvádí Apollo). To znamená, že financování tohoto rozvoje je také v rozsahu, který dosud nebyl otestován. Jelikož jde o tak významný příspěvek k růstu HDP, případné zpomalení nebo obrat tohoto trendu by mohl být významným negativním faktorem pro ekonomiku jako celek.

Výnos z AI – jak pro společnosti realizující kapitálové výdaje, tak pro zákazníky investující do této technologie – zůstává obtížně vyčíslitelný. Cirkulární financování pomáhá rozvoji pokračovat, avšak ziskové marže v ekonomice mimo technologický sektor, stejně jako marže samotných tvůrců této infrastruktury, zatím nezažily takový skok, jaký bychom potřebovali vidět, aby ospravedlnil obrovské množství investovaného kapitálu.

Historie není nakloněna nadvýkonnosti sektorů s rychlým růstem zadlužení. Sektory s nejrychlejším růstem dluhu obvykle v klíčových časových obdobích zaostávaly za trhem, často s dramaticky negativními důsledky – zejména technologie/ telekomunikace, média a technologie v roce 2001, finanční sektor a nemovitosti v roce 2007 a břidlice a energetika v roce 2014.

Zdá se, že úvěrový trh zatím zvolil kategorizovat většinu rizika v tomto prostoru spíše jako riziko související s nabídkou než jako riziko vyplývající z úvěrových fundamentů. Vyšší než očekávaná nabídka byla nepochybně hlavním faktorem nedávného zhoršení výkonnosti dluhopisů. Oznámení Googlu, že letos již nebude emitovat další dluh v dolarech, a jakékoli další známky toho, že by tempo emisí mohlo zpomalovat, by proto měly být významným pozitivním faktorem pro trh, který se letos potýká s nadměrným objemem technologických emisí.

Co to znamená pro nastavení pozic?

Jako investoři, kteří nejsou vázáni benchmarkem, můžeme na situaci nahlížet trochu jinak než manažeři, kteří se vůči benchmarku poměřují. Benchmarkoví investoři se musí zaměřovat na velikost jednotlivých sektorů ve svých indexech (viz obrázek 1 níže) a na související tracking error, aby měli co nejlepší šanci generovat alfa. Neomezený investor se naopak může věnovat tomu, zda si sektor jako celek a každý jednotlivý titul skutečně zaslouží jeho pozornost.

Zadruhé, na jiných částech globálního úvěrového trhu můžeme najít srovnatelné nebo dokonce vyšší výnosy než v technologickém sektoru, aniž by s sebou nesly stejné rizikové faktory. To může znamenat podstoupení rizik v jiných oblastech, jako je nižší úvěrová kvalita (BB), riziko podřízenosti (evropské finanční společnosti a podnikové hybridní dluhopisy), strukturální riziko (CLO) nebo cyklické riziko (například nemovitosti nebo automobilový sektor).

Zatřetí, tradičně jsme se zaměřovali na větší emitenty s dlouhou historií na kapitálových trzích a na známé společnosti, protože se domníváme, že to obecně vede k nižšímu riziku finančních potíží a selhání v průběhu času. Přestože je rozvoj AI skutečný a jeho potenciální ekonomické dopady jsou skutečně zásadní, domníváme se, že tato revoluce bude mít své vítěze i poražené. Za jinak stejných podmínek by to mohlo znamenat vyšší míru defaultů – zejména u některých novějších, menších a spekulativnějších struktur, které přicházejí na trh,“ vysvětluje James Durance.

Technologie a hyperskalární společnosti by mohly dosáhnout až 11 % amerického indexu podnikových dluhopisů investičního stupně

Zdroj: Fidelity International, Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg, ICE Indices. Mezi hyperscalery jsou zahrnuty společnosti MSFT, AMZN, META, GOOGL, ORCL, NVDA, SPCX.

You are now leaving Barron's websiteBy clicking on the “Proceed” button below, you will be redirected to a third-party website owned and operated by Hong Kong Tiimoot Information Technology Co., Limited. (“HKT”), which is located in Hong Kong. That website operates independently from Barron's and Barron's does not control the website. The privacy practices of HKT are subject to its Privacy Statement, so please read it closely. We are not responsible for HKT's privacy or other data-related practices.

 | Source: Zoom Communications, Inc.

SAN JOSE, Calif., Sept. 02, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Zoom announced today the appointment of Jeff Epstein to its Board of Directors, effective immediately. Jeff previously served as EVP and CFO of Oracle and is currently an Operating Partner at Bessemer Venture Partners, a venture capital and private equity firm.

Zoom also announced that Jonathan Chadwick will retire from Zoom's board after nearly ten years of service, effective November 19, 2026.

"Jeff's extensive financial and strategic leadership, particularly across B2B software and vertical AI, make him a strong addition to the Zoom Board," said Eric Yuan, Zoom CEO and Board Chairman. "We are also beyond appreciative to Jonathan for his nearly ten years of service to Zoom. His guidance was critical during major periods of growth, helping shape Zoom into the company it is today."

In addition to Zoom, Jeff serves on the boards of directors of Autodesk, Inc., AvePoint, Inc., and Twilio, Inc. He previously served on the boards of directors of Okta, Inc., Couchbase, Inc., Poshmark, Inc. and Shutterstock, Inc. He is the former Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Oracle Inc. and holds an MBA from the Stanford University Graduate School of Business and a BA from Yale University.

About Zoom

Zoom (NASDAQ: ZM) is a system of action for modern work, turning live collaboration into completed results. From entrepreneurs to global enterprises, customers choose Zoom to seamlessly collaborate, communicate, and drive outcomes across meetings, phone, contact center, and more — all with the built-in assistance of Zoom AI. Founded in 2011, Zoom is headquartered in San Jose, CA. For more information, visit zoom.com.

Contact Information

Media: [email protected]

Investor Relations: [email protected]

watch now

The coming week could be pivotal for Oracle and the AI complex. The day after OpenAI Foundation's presentation at the Goldman Sachs Communications & Technology conference, Oracle reports earnings amid enormous enthusiasm for its role in the AI infrastructure buildout precisely at a time when questions surrounding OpenAI's enormous infrastructure commitments, to Oracle particularly, are becoming increasingly important.

Wall Street is decidedly optimistic: 42 Buy ratings, eight Holds and just one Sell. Expectations call for roughly 28% constant-currency revenue growth, versus 11% a year ago, while adjusted EPS may rise closer to 18.5%. Revenues are growing faster than earnings. Contrast that with some hardware suppliers, like Micron, whose revenues are expected to finish their fiscal year ending 8/31/26 246% higher, while EPS is expected to rise more than 840% over the same period. One is capitalizing on outsized demand and pricing power - the other is footing the bill.

Cloud infrastructure remains the centerpiece of the bull case. Oracle's OCI business has been growing explosively, and management is guiding to 27%-29% overall revenue growth this quarter. 

Amazon, Alphabet and Meta are already deploying essentially all (or slightly more) of the cash their businesses generate into AI infrastructure. Oracle is different. Its existing balance sheet is already more leveraged, and it is relying more heavily on external financing as a percentage of anticipated spend.

To the bulls, that's attractive because Oracle offers greater financial and operating leverage to an AI boom. But if you're not named Pollyanna, average it tends to clip one's wings just as predators approach, and Oracle's competitors are formidable. The options market recognizes the uncertainty. Options imply a move greater than 10% by the end of next week, which is in line with the average over the last two years.

So how to play it?

Trade: With ORCL around the mid-$140s, consider the following structure. Sometimes referred to as a "double diagonal", I more commonly refer to this as a strangle swap.

In this structure, sell the September 25th weekly 125/167.50 strangle (simultaneously selling the 125 puts and 167.5 calls) while buying the January 115/195 strangle, for a net debit of roughly $8.30. Based on current pricing, the position has an estimated probability of profit above 70%, with approximate expiration breakevens around $118 on the downside and $180 on the upside. Those levels represent moves of roughly 17%-18% in either direction.

Those are big moves, because I think some big moves are possible. The coming week could be pivotal for Oracle. The day after OpenAI Foundation's presentation at the Goldman Sachs Communications & Technology conference, Oracle reports earnings amid enormous enthusiasm for its role in the AI infrastructure buildout precisely at a time when questions surrounding OpenAI's enormous infrastructure commitments, to Oracle particularly, are becoming increasingly important.

Rather than paying heavily for that near-term volatility or betting outright against a stock with tremendous momentum, the September/January strangle swap sells the expensive earnings, betting the bulls and bears may duke it out for a few more months while retaining longer-dated protection against a genuinely outsized move.

If earnings are merely good, or merely bad, rather than transformational, rapid decay (aka "vol crush") in the September options should work in our favor. And if Oracle (or OpenAI) delivers a shock, negative or positive, the January wings give us something the naked premium seller doesn't have; more time.

DISCLOSURES: Tidal holds positions in all the publicly traded securities mentioned.

Although Oracle Corp. (NYSE: NYSE) saw its market capitalization fall by $146.4 billion so far in 2026, hovering at $407.1 billion on September 2, Mark Moerdler, a Wall Street analyst at Bernstein SocGen Group, expects another rally towards the all-time high (ATH) over the next 12 months. 

Moerdler reiterated a ‘Buy’ rating for Oracle stock, according to a note sent to clients on Wednesday. He set the firm’s 12-month price target for ORCL at $325.

With Oracle stock trading at $143.95 at the time of writing, this analyst suggests a potential $125.77% upside over the next 12 months. This bullish thesis for ORCL is based on the expectations that the company will continue to benefit from the Artificial Intelligence (AI) boom through its Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) services.

For the company’s first quarter (Q1) of financial year (FY) 2027, Oracle projects that total Cloud Revenue, including Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS) and Software as a Service (SaaS), will grow 57% to 63% year-over-year (YoY).

“We believe that the company is nearing the end of its need for additional cash. The value being created is substantial and not included in the valuation. We reiterate our Outperform rating,” Moerdler concluded.

Is Oracle a good stock to buy? Following Bernstein’s bullish target, 32 Wall Street analysts surveyed by TipRanks over the past three months have issued a ‘Strong Buy’ rating. As of press time, these analysts had set an average 12-month price target for Oracle at $254.57, representing a possible 76.85% uptick.

ORCL stock 12-month forecast. Source: TipRanks The highest 12-month forecast for ORCL, at the time of publication, is $400, while the lowest is $145.

ORCL price performance  Year-to-date (YTD), Oracle stock has fallen by 26.45%, an extension of last year after it reached an ATH of slightly above $345.

ORCL’s YTD chart. Source: Finbold Nonetheless, Wall Street analysts are confident that Oracle stock could rally above its peak for 2026 over the next 12 months.

Featured image via Shutterstock

Best Crypto Exchange for Intermediate Traders and Investors

Invest in cryptocurrencies and 3,000+ other assets including stocks and precious metals.

0% commission on stocks - buy in bulk or just a fraction from as little as $10. Other fees apply. For more information, visit etoro.com/trading/fees.

Copy top-performing traders in real time, automatically.

eToro USA is registered with FINRA for securities trading.

30+ million Users worldwide

Securities trading offered by eToro USA Securities, Inc. (“the BD”), member of FINRA and SIPC. Cryptocurrency offered by eToro USA LLC (“the MSB”) (NMLS: 1769299) and is not FDIC or SIPC insured. Investing involves risk, and content is provided for educational purposes only, does not imply a recommendation, and is not a guarantee of future performance. Finbold.com is not an affiliate and may be compensated if you access certain products or services offered by the MSB and/or the BD

Join Finbold's newsroom, become a Sales Executive today! Apply now to join Finbold as a crypto/finance news writer!