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Expanded benefits and incentives provide resources to build offerings, pursue new business, and deliver customer success

, /PRNewswire/ -- Oracle AI World -- Oracle today announced a $1 billion commitment to its partner ecosystem to help partners capitalize on customer demand for AI-powered solutions and services.

Spanning the next four years, the investment is intended to expand opportunities for partners to develop innovative solutions, build specialized expertise, and deliver the technology and services customers need to support business transformation and pursue improved outcomes.

It encompasses new and expanded Oracle PartnerNetwork (OPN) benefits and incentives, including planned investments in training and certification, technical enablement, development, testing and demonstration environments, cloud migration funding, go-to-market collaboration, and commercialization through Oracle Marketplace. See related Marketplace announcement.

Oracle's diverse partner ecosystem includes systems integrators, independent software vendors (ISVs), cloud and managed service providers, value-added distributors, resellers, advisory firms, and other partners. Across Oracle Fusion Applications, Oracle Database, Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI), and related AI services, partners contribute in different ways, from developing complementary solutions to providing advisory, implementation, and managed services.

"Our partners extend our sales reach, expand our delivery capacity, and bring their own innovation and investment to help customers address evolving business needs," said Mark Hura, president of Oracle Global Field Operations. "Through the Oracle PartnerNetwork, we're strengthening our ability to reach more customers, deliver solutions at scale, and accelerate innovation and business outcomes."

Investing in partner growth and customer success
The Oracle PartnerNetwork gives partners the flexibility to select benefits, incentives, and resources that best support their business strategies and growth priorities. Oracle is expanding its OPN investments across four areas:

Build differentiated offerings. Oracle provides dev/test environments, technical guidance, and integration validation to help partners create innovative solutions. Partners can combine their industry expertise and intellectual property with Oracle technology to develop specialized applications, integrations, accelerators, and AI agents that address customer needs.
   Sell and grow with Oracle. Sales and marketing collaboration, demonstration environments, and eligible funding and incentives for eligible opportunities help partners showcase their solutions and pursue new business opportunities. Trainings, certifications, expertise recognition, and Oracle Marketplace help partners differentiate and commercialize their offerings.
   Deliver with confidence. Training and enablement, migration resources, and advisory services help partners plan and execute customer engagements. Tools and methodologies support application implementations, database modernization, integration, and cloud services.
   Drive ongoing customer success. Oracle provides tools and resources, including Oracle AI Success Navigator, for partners to support customers beyond initial deployment. Partners can help drive adoption of new capabilities, optimize existing investments, and deliver ongoing innovation and business value. "Our partners have different business models, capabilities, and growth ambitions, and our investment is designed to support that diversity," said Leah Yomtovian, senior vice president, Partner, Sales, and Operations Strategy, Oracle. "By giving partners greater choice and flexibility in how they build, sell, and deliver with Oracle, we're helping them grow their businesses while bringing more innovation, specialized expertise, and value to our customers."

Connecting partner innovation with customer opportunity
The impact of partner innovation is evident in solutions that combine specialized industry and business process expertise with Oracle's applications and AI capabilities. The following examples show how that combination comes to life:

Oracle Extends Fusion Agentic Applications with Introduction of Fusion Claw
   Accenture Edge Helps Combe Unify its Global Operations, Setting the Stage for AI-Powered Growth with Oracle Fusion Applications
   The Centre for Addiction and Mental Health Optimizes Operations and Patient Care with Oracle Fusion Cloud Applications
   Beca Transforms Finance Operations with Oracle Fusion Applications
   Leah Partners with Oracle and PwC to Take Its Agentic Operating System Global To learn more about benefits, incentives, and resources available to Oracle partners, visit oracle.com/partner. All benefits and incentives are subject to applicable program terms and eligibility requirements.

About Oracle PartnerNetwork
Oracle PartnerNetwork helps Oracle and its partners drive joint customer success and business momentum. The program provides choice and flexibility across training and enablement, go-to-market collaboration, technical accelerators, and success support. To learn more, visit oracle.com/partner.

About Oracle
Oracle offers integrated suites of applications plus secure, autonomous infrastructure in the Oracle Cloud. For more information about Oracle (NYSE: ORCL), please visit oracle.com.

About Oracle AI World
Oracle AI World is where customers and partners discover the latest product and technology innovations, see how AI is being applied across industries, and connect with experts and peers. Attendees will gain practical tips and insights to drive immediate impact within their organizations and explore how Oracle is helping unlock the full potential of AI. Join the event to see new capabilities in action and hear from thought leaders and industry movers. Register now at oracle.com/ai-world or follow the news and conversation at oracle.com/news and linkedin.com/company/oracle. 

Trademarks
Oracle, Java, MySQL, and NetSuite are registered trademarks of Oracle Corporation. NetSuite was the first cloud company—ushering in the new era of cloud computing.

SOURCE Oracle

New Fusion Claw applications help business and HR leaders achieve defined workforce outcomes with greater speed and confidence by continuously adapting and executing complex work with enterprise governance

, /PRNewswire/ -- HR Technology Conference -- Oracle today announced new Fusion Claw-powered agentic applications for HR. Oracle Fusion Claw is a governed agentic execution runtime that enables Fusion Agentic Applications to reason, compute, adapt, and execute specialist-grade work including deep research, computation, simulation, modeling, and continuous replanning. Built into Oracle Fusion Cloud Applications, the new Claw-powered agentic applications help organizations take on complex, high-value work more autonomously at scale, within established governance controls, from adapting staffing plans and aligning workforce demand with capacity to accelerating recruiting and payroll operations.

"Business and HR leaders need a complete view of their workforce to make faster, more confident decisions about skills, staffing, labor costs, and employee experience, but business is moving too quickly for them to connect, assess, and take all the actions on their own," said Lewis Thompson, senior vice president, Applications Development, Oracle. "With Claw-powered Fusion Agentic Applications for HR, business and HR leaders can reimagine the way they work by moving to governed action across core workforce processes. The applications reason across Oracle Fusion Applications data, provide context, coordinate the work required to meet business objectives, and carry out human-approved actions. This will help leaders drive stronger workforce outcomes with greater speed, consistency, and confidence."

Agentic Applications represent a new class of outcome-based applications that provide Fusion Applications customers with a system of outcomes, where people define the objectives, authority, and accountability and the Agentic Applications coordinate the process to get to an outcome, within those parameters. Fusion Claw enables Agentic Applications to take on more complex, specialist-grade work by providing a new execution runtime that supports larger-scale and longer-running work, continuous replanning, deterministic execution, and governed automation, within organizational policies and controls.

Running on Oracle Cloud Infrastructure, powered by industry-leading LLMs, and extending the world's most complete suite of cloud applications, the new Fusion Agentic Applications move beyond assistance to governed execution, helping business and HR leaders improve outcomes while maintaining established oversight and approvals. New Fusion Agentic Applications available within Oracle Fusion Cloud Human Capital Management (HCM) include:

Workforce Planning and Operations:

Workforce Orchestration: Develops workforce plans that balance demand shifts, cost, and operational continuity by evaluating development, redeployment, hiring, and external talent options, then coordinating and launching actions that are approved through organizational review.
Positions Command Center: Works to avoid potential disruptions from position changes by connecting position, employee, recruiting, cost, and approval data to surface conflicts and downstream risks, then routing recommended corrective actions for review and approval.

Talent Acquisition:

Candidate Sourcing: Allows organizations to fill priority roles faster and strengthens candidate pipelines by analyzing workforce demand, grouping candidates for appropriate action, and coordinating outreach, campaigns, and follow-up communications aligned with established recruiting processes and approvals.
Recruiting Command Center: Keeps hiring workflows on track by bringing together job, candidate, interview, feedback, offer, and demand data; highlighting recruiter actions and candidates ready to advance; and preparing next steps for recruiter consideration and approval.

Workforce Rewards and Payroll:

Workforce Compensation: Develops recommendations for fair, budget-aligned compensation plans by evaluating options against employer-defined criteria, budgets, pay guidelines, and relevant equity considerations, then preparing plans that align with organizational policies for human review and approval.
Payroll Command Center: Works to identify potential payroll issues and improve run readiness by reviewing employee data, imports, timecards, retroactive changes, and historical patterns at scale; highlighting issues and potential causes; and preparing recommended follow-up actions for review.
Payroll Activity Workspace: Supports payroll and financial reporting activities by comparing current pay, balances, and costs with prior periods; highlighting material variances; and preparing recommended follow-up actions for review and approval.

The new Claw-powered Fusion Agentic Applications are part of a broader Fusion AI ecosystem anchored by Oracle AI Agent Studio for Fusion Applications. With the Fusion Agentic Applications Builder and AI Studio Skill no-code and pro-code capabilities in Oracle AI Agent Studio, organizations can create and manage agentic applications using reusable Oracle, partner, and external agents. In addition, built-in observability, ROI measurement, and safety controls enable agents to deliver measurable value and operate responsibly at scale.

To learn more about Oracle Fusion Applications, visit www.oracle.com/applications

For employment-related workflows, organizations retain responsibility for employment decisions and can establish appropriate human oversight, approval processes, and controls consistent with their policies and applicable legal requirements.

About Oracle Fusion Cloud Applications
Oracle Fusion Cloud Applications are a complete suite of cloud applications that form the enterprise system of record, spanning finance, HR, supply chain, manufacturing, sales, service, and marketing. The suite includes Oracle Fusion Cloud Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP), Oracle Fusion Cloud Human Capital Management (HCM), Oracle Fusion Cloud Supply Chain & Manufacturing (SCM), and Oracle Fusion Cloud Customer Experience (CX).

Fusion Agentic Applications extend that foundation into a system of outcomes. They can coordinate and execute end-to-end work toward business objectives, and are designed to operate within the policies, controls, and authority each organization defines. With Oracle AI Agent Studio for Fusion Applications, customers and partners can create, extend, and manage these agents and agentic applications, combining trusted enterprise data with the security, data governance, and performance needed to operate at scale.

About Oracle
Oracle offers integrated suites of applications plus secure, autonomous infrastructure in the Oracle Cloud. For more information about Oracle (NYSE: ORCL), please visit us at www.oracle.com.

Trademarks
Oracle, Java, MySQL, and NetSuite are registered trademarks of Oracle Corporation. NetSuite was the first cloud company—ushering in the new era of cloud computing.

SOURCE Oracle

Oracle is burning through cash faster than it earns revenue, its credit rating sits one notch above junk, and a TD Cowen analyst now suspects its biggest chip supplier may be quietly backstopping the whole expansion.

On October 20, 2026, TD Cowen analyst Michael Elias wrote that Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA | NVDA Price Prediction) may be helping Oracle (NYSE:ORCL) secure lender funding for its AI data centers. Neither company has confirmed this, and the size of any support remains unquantified.

Oracle closed at $131.14, up 1.20%. Nvidia fell 0.29% to $216.47. Oracle’s small gain follows a 52.06% drop over the year. The stock is much cheaper, but the company may now be relying on its largest chip supplier to keep building.

Two Ways Nvidia Could Back Oracle’s Leases
Elias based his view on channel checks, which means conversations with people in the industry. He found that Nvidia may be giving Oracle “credit support” in one of two ways.

The first is a credit guarantee. Nvidia would stand behind Oracle’s lease payments, so data center owners still get paid if Oracle runs into trouble; the second is a sublease in which Nvidia would lease the buildings itself and then rent them to Oracle. In both cases, lenders would be counting on Nvidia’s stronger credit, which makes them more willing to fund construction.

Elias linked the agreement to Oracle’s reported five-year deal with Tencent. Under that deal, Tencent would lease about 100,000 advanced AI chips in Oracle data centers in Southeast Asia. The lease is estimated at about $7 billion, with roughly 30% paid upfront. That deal is still unconfirmed, and the countries involved have not been disclosed.

Oracle’s Cash Gap Explains Why It Would Want Help
Cloud infrastructure revenue grew 121% to $7.4 billion last quarter. But Oracle spent $28.5 billion on buildings and equipment, more than its total revenue of $19.3 billion, and free cash flow was negative $5.4 billion.

To keep building, Oracle sold $20 billion of stock during the quarter. It needs the capacity to deliver on $664 billion in remaining performance obligations, which is revenue customers have signed up for, but Oracle has not yet booked. S&P Global (NYSE:SPGI) cut Oracle to BBB-, its lowest investment-grade rating, in July. Back in January 2026, a separate TD Cowen report said lenders had roughly doubled the extra interest they charge Oracle for data center project loans.

Management has already said that some suppliers let Oracle pay for capacity as its own customers pay. Oracle also said it signed more than $30 billion of first-quarter contracts without putting in additional capital of its own.

Nvidia Has Already Described This Kind of Deal
On its August 26, 2026 earnings call, Nvidia described take-or-pay commitments. Under these, Nvidia pays for part of a facility’s capacity. It must pay whether or not it gets used, which gives lenders “the confidence to underwrite the project.” Colette Kress, who was chief financial officer on that call, added: “We’re not making loans.”

Nvidia has disclosed guarantee obligations capped at $108.5 billion. That call did not name Oracle as one of the companies receiving support, so TD Cowen’s view remains unconfirmed.

What Each Company Gains and Risks
Nvidia keeps demand for its chips strong. But it takes on the risk that a customer can’t pay, and that risk may not show up clearly on its balance sheet. On October 19, S&P warned that big tech companies may carry more AI-related obligations than they report. That adds to existing concerns about circular financing, where a supplier helps pay for purchases of its own products.

Oracle gets cheaper money to build with, but it becomes more dependent on Nvidia. For a company worth $397.4 billion, that is a reasonable price for keeping construction on schedule.

Oracle’s Valuation and Downgrade Risk Ahead of December Earnings
Oracle trades at about 18 times expected earnings, and analysts’ average price target is $249.11. If Nvidia’s support proves real, it would lower borrowing costs that helped drag the stock down.

The main risk is another downgrade. A cut below BBB- would put Oracle’s debt in the junk category, meaning below investment grade, and raise its borrowing costs across the board.

You can check this thesis against Oracle’s December earnings report. The bullish case has two requirements. Net cash capital spending, meaning spending after customer prepayments, must stay within Oracle’s guidance of not more than $70 billion for the year, and either company must confirm the support. The case breaks if free cash flow gets worse and no confirmation comes.

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

The artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure build-out is expensive.

OK, that's underselling it. In fact, the current spending spree is one of the largest capital outlays in modern history. Adjusted for inflation, this year alone will see more spent on AI-related infrastructure projects than was spent during the entire decade-long Apollo program.

Over the next few years, global AI capital expenditures will be measured not in the hundreds of billions of dollars but in the trillions -- and two of the biggest spenders will undoubtedly be Oracle (ORCL +1.20%) and Microsoft (MSFT -0.31%).

But which of these AI compute giants stands to benefit most from all that spending, and which is the better buy?

Oracle: Surging growth, negative free cash flow On the top line, Oracle has been doing quite well. Sales grew from $57.4 billion in its fiscal 2025 to $67.4 billion in its fiscal 2026 -- mostly on the back of its AI efforts.

Sales from its Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) unit -- which leases massive data centers and rents out AI compute -- jumped 121% year over year to $7.4 billion as of its most recent quarter, fiscal 2027 Q1.

Image source: Getty Images.

And there's plenty more business waiting, too. Companywide remaining performance obligations (RPO) -- contracted sales for services it hasn't delivered yet and, therefore, can't count as revenue yet -- reached an incredible $664 billion last quarter.

Of course, nothing is free, and Oracle's cash picture looks strained, to say the least. Its capex reached $55.7 billion last year, exceeding its operating income. As a result, its free cash flow (FCF) -- the money left over after running the business and paying for capital projects -- turned negative to the tune of a $5.4 billion loss in the latest quarter.

ORCL Oracle$131.14+$1.55 (+1.20%)

NYSE · As of 4:00 PM ET 10/20/26

And mind you, Oracle has increasingly worked out deals where customers pay up front. Its FCF could get much worse before it gets better.

To help cover the gap, Oracle has turned to debt. As of the end of August, the company had $125 billion in long-term debt on the books, and that figure excludes another $288 billion in data center lease commitments it hasn't begun paying.

Investors are becoming more concerned about that borrowing, too. Last week, the cost of insuring Oracle's debt against default reached record levels, exceeding levels seen during the financial crisis.

Microsoft: Slower growth but still free cash flow positive Microsoft sales grew from $281.7 billion in its fiscal 2025 to $331.8 billion in fiscal 2026, with Azure and other cloud services revenue jumping 43% year over year in its most recently reported quarter -- not quite as fast-growing as Oracle Cloud Infrastructure.

Of course, Azure is already much larger. Microsoft's intelligent cloud segment revenues (which include Azure) hit $39.3 billion last quarter. It's easier for OCI to grow more rapidly on a percentage basis, given that it's less than one-fifth the size of Microsoft's intelligent cloud.

On the cost side, Microsoft spent $35.8 billion on capex last quarter, which is considerably less than it brings in from operations, so the company was still FCF positive -- it booked just shy of a $20 billion surplus.

Microsoft's debt picture is much less strained, too. At the end of June, Microsoft had about $40.3 billion in debt, down from $43.2 billion a year earlier, though it also had $329.1 billion in leases that have yet to begin.

Which AI compute giant is the better buy over the next five years? If everything goes perfectly, Oracle would likely have more upside. Its cloud business is growing faster, and that unit makes up a larger part of its financial mix than the corresponding business does for Microsoft. Both companies have backlogs of a similar scale, but Oracle's cloud sales are less than a fifth of Microsoft's. It just has a relatively bigger opportunity.

But I don't think things will go perfectly. Five years is a long time, especially considering we are already seeing signs of delays in key data center projects across the country, notably a significant potential delay in Oracle's Project Jupiter data center in New Mexico. I think this is only likely to get worse, and Oracle doesn't have a lot of breathing room.

Microsoft is exposed to those sorts of risks, too, but it has far more financial flexibility to deal with them. For my money, that makes it the better bet, and I expect Microsoft stock to outperform Oracle's over the next five years.

BNP Paribas says Oracle is seeing an “impressive inflection” as generative AI drives stronger software spending. Summary

Oracle’s trailing spending score improved unexpectedly in BNP Paribas’ latest reseller survey.

Database and cloud software major Oracle Corp. (ORCL, Financials) has indicators that its drive into AI is turning into higher client demand.

BNP Paribas said its latest software reseller survey revealed a “impressive inflection” for Oracle, with the October findings better than worse readings in July. The major change was generative AI.

GenAI has already eclipsed cybersecurity in terms of demand, according to the report, indicating that firms are moving out of the testing phase and are starting to invest real budget.

Oracle seems to be the immediate beneficiary. Its DB@AWS and DB@Azure solutions leaped into the top three most demanded products, while Oracle Cloud Infrastructure and Fusion also improved.

That important because those products are supporting both sides of the investment case.

OCI helps drive expansion, while database services operating within competitor clouds can assist produce higher-margin software income.

BNP Paribas also cited positive results for AWS, Google Cloud and Microsoft, while Adobe, Zoom and IBM fell behind in areas of the poll.

For Oracle investors the question is whether this more aggressive reseller engagement translates into sustainable revenue growth.

The next thing to look for is if Oracle's impending findings support the survey's indication of improving demand.

Disclosures I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and have no plans to buy any new positions in the stocks mentioned within the next 72 hours.

Click for the complete disclosure

The final Oracle (NYSE: ORCL) dividend of 2026 is coming this week, with investors who have secured shares in the software company on time set to receive a payment unchanged from the previous quarters.

Specifically, Oracle will once again pay a quarterly dividend of $0.5 per share on Friday, October 23, 2026. The ex-dividend date of October 9 has long past, meaning only those who held ORCL shares prior to that will be eligible for a payout.

Oracle dividend schedule. Source: Dividend.com At a payout of $0.5, 100 ORCL shares will generate exactly $50 in Oracle stock dividends for the fourth quarter of 2026. Comparatively, 500 shares will earn $250, while 1,000 shares translate into $500.

The payout comes as Oracle stock trades at $129.59, down nearly 13% on the monthly chart. At that price, a 100 ORCL share investment is worth $12,959 at press time. On the ex-dividend date, however, it was worth $14,140, as the stock was changing hands at $141.4 at the time.

Oracle dividend details As mentioned, this week’s payment remains unchanged from the previous quarter. In fact, the last ORCL dividend increase came in the second quarter of 2025, when the payout was lifted from $0.4 to $0.5 per share. In other words, 100 ORCL shares will have netted $200 in taxable dividend income this year.

The company rewards shareholders on a quarterly basis, and it has an average price recovery of 6.2 days. Currently, the payout ratio is at around 18.15%, while the yield sits at 1.54%, slightly above the industry average of 1.37%.

According to the current estimates retrieved from Dividend.com, Oracle’s first 2027 dividend payout could come on January 22, 2027. If predictions are correct, the figure will once again remain unchanged.

Featured image via Shutterstock

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Oracle (ORCL -4.64%) stock was near $130 as of this writing, about 60% off its record close at $328.33 on Sept. 10, 2025. Shares are down 33% this year, but the S&P 500 (^GSPC -1.09%) returned about 13% through September.

A fall this sharp makes the stock tempting, and on earnings it's arguably cheap.

But I think Oracle's cash flow statement matters more over the next few years. The cloud giant is spending more on its artificial intelligence (AI) build-out than its business takes in, and it plans to spend even more this fiscal year.

My prediction is that Oracle stock trails a fund tracking the S&P 500 from now through 2030.

Image source: The Motley Fool.

The spending is still climbingOracle's spending already topped its cash last fiscal year (the company's fiscal years end May 31). Capital expenditures were $55.7 billion in fiscal 2026, while operating cash flow grew 54% to $32.0 billion. That put free cash flow at negative $23.7 billion.

The pace keeps rising. Quarterly capital expenditures climbed over most of fiscal 2026, from $8.5 billion in the first quarter to $18.6 billion in the third, before slipping to $16.5 billion in the fourth. Then spending surged to $28.5 billion in the fiscal first quarter of 2027 (the quarter ended Aug. 31, 2026), more than triple the year-ago total.

For the full fiscal year, management is still guiding for capital expenditures of $90 billion to $95 billion. Customers will fund part of that up front. Even net of customer prepayments and timing effects, though, Oracle plans to spend as much as $70 billion this fiscal year. On the same basis, it spent around $48 billion in fiscal 2026.

The prepayments didn't close the gap in fiscal Q1, either. Operating cash flow surged 184% year over year to $23.1 billion, lifted by $11.4 billion in customer prepayments. Free cash flow was still negative $5.4 billion, the sixth straight quarter below zero.

When does the cash come back?On Oracle's fiscal Q1 earnings call in September, an analyst asked when the company expects to return to positive free cash flow.

"We have not given a particular time frame on that," chief financial officer Hilary Maxson said. She added that each of Oracle's data center projects "by nature, is a strong free cash flow generating project" once it ramps up.

That could well be right. My worry is how long the ramp takes. Oracle's remaining performance obligations (contracted revenue it hasn't recognized yet) hit $664 billion at the end of fiscal Q1. But the company expects to recognize only around 13% of that in the next 12 months. About half isn't expected to become revenue until after August 2029.

The costs, of course, come sooner. Depreciation was $3.2 billion for fiscal Q1, up from $1.4 billion a year before. And Maxson said in June that gross margin would fall this fiscal year as new data centers ramp toward full revenue.

Shareholders are funding the waitUntil the cash turns, Oracle needs to fill the gap with fresh money. It sold $20 billion in stock under an at-the-market program in fiscal Q1, part of the approximately $40 billion in debt and equity it expects to raise this fiscal year.

Both cost shareholders something. The average number of shares outstanding grew 5% year over year in the quarter. And interest expense climbed 55% to $1.4 billion, mainly because of the $43 billion of bonds Oracle sold in fiscal 2026.

An index fund doesn't need its owners to wait out a build-out like this.

ORCL Oracle$128.23-$6.24 (-4.64%)

NYSE · As of 4:00 PM ET 10/16/26

Sure, Oracle stock looks cheap. Using the $8.10 of non-GAAP (adjusted) earnings per share management expects this fiscal year, Oracle trades at around 16 times earnings, under the S&P 500's forward price-to-earnings ratio of nearly 19 as of Sept. 30.

Management's long-term outlook also calls for earnings per share to compound at 28% a year through fiscal 2030. If Oracle delivers that on schedule, I might be wrong.

But earnings per share isn't cash, and the earnings may keep getting spread over more shares for as long as the gap stays open.

So, will Oracle stock keep up with the index through 2030? I don't think so. The business may well be far bigger by then. But the stock needs to get through years of high spending, new debt, and new shares first, and I think an S&P 500 fund is the better bet over that time.

A $1,000 investment in Oracle (ORCL +3.00%) could grow to roughly $2,430 by 2029. This assumes that the company converts its cloud backlog on the schedule management has outlined, it meets Wall Street's fiscal 2029 average per-share earnings estimate of $15.80, and the stock continues to trade at a recent 20 price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple.

Oracle's remaining performance obligations (RPO) stood at $664 billion as of fiscal first-quarter 2027 ended Aug. 31. That's an increase of $209 billion from a year earlier.

Delays in bringing more cloud capacity online are a risk that could throw off Wall Street's estimates. Still, Oracle's RPO is contracted revenue, providing line of sight into future revenue at a time when demand for AI infrastructure continues to outpace available capacity across the industry.

Image source: Getty Images.

Oracle expects half the backlog to convert to revenue in the next 36 months Oracle provides cloud infrastructure services for artificial intelligence (AI) workloads, Fusion applications that run core business processes, and the Oracle Database. This combination of infrastructure, applications, and AI solutions differentiates Oracle from competitors and continues to drive strong demand from enterprises.

Cloud infrastructure revenue reached $7.4 billion in the first quarter of fiscal 2027, up 121% year over year. RPO rose $26 billion from the prior quarter, and management expects roughly half of the total backlog to convert into sales during the next 36 months.

ORCL Oracle$134.47+$3.92 (+3.00%)

NYSE · As of 4:00 PM ET 10/15/26

Company projections for the full fiscal year call for total revenue of at least $90 billion and non-GAAP (meaning not in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles) earnings per share of $8.10. Demand is not letting up. Graphics processing unit (GPU) utilization stood at 97.9% in the quarter, reflecting that nearly every chip is being used by customers for AI workloads, and capacity that came up for renewal was renewed or resold at a 20% premium to prior contracts.

Synergy Research Group has reported that generative AI-specific cloud services grew 165% year over year in recent periods, with Oracle among the fastest-growing providers outside the top three (Amazon, Microsoft, and Alphabet's Google). Goldman Sachs projects that the five largest U.S. hyperscalers, including Oracle, will spend about $1.2 trillion on AI infrastructure in 2027.

Delays in bringing more capacity online are a risk Investors might think that a 20 P/E for a cloud provider with this much demand appears too low. But the low valuation reflects concerns about the long-term payoff from higher capital spending, particularly with the company's free cash flow under pressure right now.

Oracle expects capital expenditures of $90 billion to $95 billion for fiscal 2027, with net cash capital expenditures of $70 billion or less after customer prepayments and similar financing agreements. This approach of using prepayments and customer-funded hardware takes a lot of the burden off Oracle in raising capital. Still, free cash flow was negative $5 billion in the latest quarter as it continued to spend aggressively to bring more capacity online.

A large portion of the backlog is concentrated with a handful of customers, and any delay in bringing data-center capacity online could slow the conversion of the backlog into revenue. If Oracle fails to convert its backlog into additional revenue and misses Wall Street's earnings estimates, the upside could be limited.

Still, Oracle's infrastructure growth has accelerated for several quarters, GPU utilization remains high, and the company has already shown it can renew older capacity at a premium. If the backlog converts on the 36-month schedule management has described, and the stock is still trading at today's valuation on future earnings, the shares could reach $316 in three years. At the Oct. 14 close of $130, a $1,000 investment would be worth roughly $2,430.

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Oracle (ORCL -8.83%), an enterprise cloud software and database platform provider, closed at $130.55, down 8.83%. Oracle fell on Wednesday after hotter-than-expected September Consumer Price Index (CPI) data lifted Treasury yields and revived rate-hike bets. Investors are also watching AI cloud expansion costs and the next earnings update on December 14, 2026.

Trading volume reached 50.4 million shares, coming in about 61% above its three-month average of 31.3 million shares.

How the markets moved todayS&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) closed at 7,721, down 1.08%, while the Nasdaq Composite (NASDAQINDEX: ^IXIC) finished at 26,693, down 1.88%. Among enterprise software, cloud infrastructure, and database management peers, Salesforce (CRM -0.87%) closed at $236.00, down 0.84%, while SAP (SAP +0.34%) closed at $220.40, up 0.30%.

What this means for investorsOracle shares were already under pressure from financing and execution worries around AI cloud expansion, including its Project Jupiter data center, which is pending government approvals, and power logistics costs. The company's spending on AI infrastructure has resulted in its debt heading toward $167 billion, and a revenue timing gap before OpenAI-related contract revenue starts in 2027. As a result, Oracle's credit rating was downgraded to BBB-, one notch above speculative grade.

The CPI data pointing to elevated inflation suggests more federal rate increases could come, making Oracle's growing debt load and shrinking free cash flow a risk for investors. One outcome of the situation could be that Oracle has to cut its dividend.

That said, in September, Oracle reported outstanding revenue growth of 30% year over year to $19.3 billion for its 2027 fiscal first quarter, ended Aug.31. The increase was driven by triple-digit cloud infrastructure gains, so investors are now weighing that momentum against heavier spending. Oracle's next earnings announcement on December 14 will be the clearest test of whether cloud demand can offset margin pressure and borrowing needs.

Robert Izquierdo has positions in Oracle and Salesforce. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Oracle and Salesforce. The Motley Fool recommends SAP. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Oracle Corp. (NYSE:ORCL) shares are tumbling Wednesday, erasing Tuesday’s gain. The company lobbies federal regulators again for sign-off on the gas line meant to feed its Project Jupiter data center in New Mexico.

Oracle stock is feeling bearish pressure. Why is ORCL stock dropping? Oracle Urges FERC to Speed Approval of Project Jupiter Gas PipelineOracle sent a letter Tuesday to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC), Bloomberg reported. The company wants a fast ruling on the gas line for Project Jupiter. Josh Pitcock, Oracle’s senior vice president of government affairs, wrote that “Time remains of the essence.”

Pitcock said continued delay could push back the data center’s opening. It could also stall new jobs, local spending and other community gains. A subsidiary of Energy Transfer LP will operate the line.

The line, named Green Chile, now has a February 2027 start date. Developers had aimed to open it August 15. Once running, it will deliver roughly 400 million cubic feet of gas each day to Bloom Energy fuel cells that will power Project Jupiter.

New Mexico officials started the delay by turning down the original route across state land. Energy Transfer responded by moving the pipeline onto federal land.

FERC published an environmental assessment of the 17.8-mile pipeline on September 4, and advocacy groups pushed back. New Mexico Attorney General Raúl Torrez said earlier this month that the study should weigh both the data center and the pipeline. Torrez said FERC must either rewrite it or produce a full environmental impact statement.

Texas Report Revives Attention On Oracle Healthcare BreachSeparately, a Texas attorney general report issued earlier this month put a breach at Oracle’s healthcare unit back in focus, Bloomberg reported.

The report said the hack exposed Social Security numbers, addresses and health information for nearly 20 million people, including roughly 3 million Texans. Oracle declined to comment.

Mizuho Reiterates Outperform On Oracle With $320 Price TargetDespite the drop in ORCL, Mizuho analyst Siti Panigrahi sees a possible way around those delays. Panigrahi stood by an Outperform rating on Oracle and left the price target at $320.

Mizuho joined the Doña Ana County Commission meeting online. Oracle told commissioners that construction is moving forward and that it is working through power and regulatory obstacles. Commissioners asked for more detail on how the El Paso Electric (EPE) proposal fits the county’s IRB and community benefits agreement.

Mizuho’s clean energy team also consulted a former Bureau of Land Management state director for New Mexico. That expert said rerouting the pipeline might spare Oracle a restart of the environmental review, which could limit further delays.

Mizuho said regulatory approvals are still pending, but the firm remains positive on Project Jupiter’s progress.

ORCL Shares Are SinkingORCL Price Action: Oracle shares were down 6.38% at $134.06 at the time of publication on Wednesday, according to Benzinga Pro.

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© 2026 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.

MILWAUKEE, Oct. 14, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Ademi LLP is investigating potential data privacy claims arising from a data breach involving lease to own company Oracle Health (NYSE: ORCL), which provides cloud-based electronic health record (EHR) systems, clinical tools, and healthcare data management software designed to connect patient data and streamline hospital operations. We are investigating whether Oracle Health maintained reasonable safeguards to protect personal information.

Please contact us for more information.

What Happened

Oracle Health is reporting that its internal records have been compromised. The information compromised may include:

NamesAddressesSocial Security numberscomprehensive medical records (such as doctor notes, diagnoses, prescriptions, lab results, and treatment histories)financial account number and/or payment card information
Hospitals and health systems that may have been affected by the data breach:

— Oaklawn Hospital (Marshall, Mich.)

— Great River Health (West Burlington, Iowa)

— Concord (N.H.) Hospital Health System

— Cabell Huntington (W.Va.) Hospital

— Huntsville (Ala.) Hospital Health System

— Marshall Health Network (Huntington, W.Va.)

— MultiCare Yakima (Wash.) Memorial Hospital

— Sharp Tri-City Medical Center (Oceanside, Calif.)

— Arkansas Heart Hospital (Little Rock)

— Albany (N.Y.) Med Health System

— Huntington Hospital (Pasadena, Calif.)

— Christus Health (Irving, Texas)

— Munson Healthcare (Traverse City, Mich.)

— Atrium Health (Charlotte, N.C.)

— Jupiter (Fla.) Medical Center

— AdventHealth (Altamonte Springs, Fla.)

— Aultman Health System (Canton, Ohio)

— Lake Regional Health System (Osage Beach, Mo.)

— OSF HealthCare (Peoria, Ill.)

— Hamilton (Ga.) Medical Center

— Methodist Le Bonheur Healthcare (Memphis, Tenn.)

— ChristianaCare (Newark, Del.)

— North Kansas City (Mo.) Hospital

— LifeBridge Health (Baltimore)

— Glens Falls (N.Y.) Hospital

— Baptist Health South Florida (Coral Gables)

— Mosaic Life Care (St. Joseph, Mo.)

— Tallahassee (Fla.) Memorial Healthcare

— Union Health (Terre Haute, Ind.)

Your Options

You may may be entitled to seek compensation for this data breach. Ademi LLP will evaluate your rights and potential claims at no cost to you.

Contact Us for a Free Evaluation

If you received a notice concerning the Oracle Health data breach and would like to learn more about the investigation, please contact:

Guri Ademi
Ademi LLP
3620 E. Layton Avenue,
Cudahy, WI 53110
Phone: 414-482-8000
Email: [email protected]

About Ademi LLP

We specialize in consumer and investor class actions. We investigate data breaches and cybersecurity incidents nationwide.

This press release may be considered Attorney Advertising. Prior results do not guarantee a similar outcome.

The latest quote sits approximately 1.2% below Stephen Rusckowski's disclosed September entry. Summary

Insider buying supplies conviction, but Oracle’s infrastructure returns still require operating evidence.

Oracle ORCL, the enterprise-software and AI-cloud provider, trades at $137.745, down about 2.6% at 12.34pm EST on October 12 and roughly 1.2% below a director's recent purchase price. A nearly $3.5 million insider investment adds conviction to the story. It does not settle the bigger question: how much cash Oracle's AI infrastructure push will ultimately generate.

An October 1 SEC filing shows that director Stephen Rusckowski's living trust bought 25,000 shares on September 29 at a weighted average of $139.352. That works out to $3,483,800 based on the reported average. Barron's describes the transaction as his first open-market purchase since joining Oracle's board. The valuation snapshot places shares 29.51% below the $195.40 GF Value estimate, suggesting potential upside if the business delivers on those expectations.

That discount deserves attention. So does the execution risk. A director's purchase offers a vote of confidence, while a valuation estimate offers a benchmark; neither guarantees a return. Investors still need to watch infrastructure utilization, customer payments and the cash earned against the money spent building capacity. Oracle's next test is turning AI demand into durable cash flow.

Disclosures I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and have no plans to buy any new positions in the stocks mentioned within the next 72 hours.

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Oracle's AI data centers are running behind on pipelines and permits, so the company found an unusual workaround to keep construction on schedule and avoid penalties on hundreds of billions in signed contracts.

For more than a year, a data center outside Salt Lake City ran on natural gas that arrived by truck. The pipeline meant to feed it was still being built. Oracle (NYSE:ORCL | ORCL Price Prediction) now uses or is considering the same solution at three sites.

The stock closed at $141.40. The average analyst target is $237.97, which implies about 68% upside.

A gap above 40% means Wall Street and the market disagree about something basic. Oracle’s signed contracts show plenty of demand for its AI capacity, so investors are asking whether Oracle can deliver it all on time.

Pipelines, utility interconnection queues and state land offices each run on their own calendars. Oracle’s customer contracts carry fixed delivery dates.

Trucked gas is what that mismatch looks like in practice. With shares about 56% below their high of the past year, the market is pricing in the risk that the calendars never line up.

How a Virtual Pipeline Keeps Oracle’s AI Campuses Powered A data center needs firm power before it can serve a single customer, and on-site gas turbines or fuel cells can supply that power once gas arrives.

If a pipeline is unfinished or a right-of-way is refused, developers haul compressed gas in by trailer, a practice the industry calls a virtual pipeline. Certarus supplied the gas in Utah, and VoltaGrid trucks are powering early work at the OpenAI campus in Shackelford County, Texas.

Project Jupiter in New Mexico is the third case. The state land office twice refused rights-of-way for the Energy Transfer pipeline, pushing its start to February. Oracle is considering trucked gas for the 2.45-gigawatt campus. The schedule slipped, and Oracle publicly thanked its supplier with a post reading “Shoutout to the Voltagrid team for finding cost-effective power solutions.”

Paying a Steep Fuel Premium to Hit Contract Dates Jack Weixel estimates that trucked gas costs roughly four times the price of gas at a major pipeline hub once delivered. Ellie Holbrook estimates that at an assumed 100-megawatt load at Jupiter, one large trailer would supply about 40 minutes of electricity.

Even a small part of the planned campus would therefore need a steady stream of trucks. Oracle accepts that cost because missing an agreed delivery date on a hyperscale deal risks penalties and delayed revenue that would likely exceed the fuel bill.

Oracle’s force majeure notice to the Jupiter developer in late September shows the strain more clearly. The clause exempts obligations interrupted by events outside a party’s control, although Oracle says Jupiter remains on schedule for 2028.

A $664 Billion Backlog Spends Before It Earns Remaining performance obligations, meaning revenue under agreements that Oracle has not yet earned, reached $664 billion, up $209 billion from a year earlier. Oracle has to spend on capacity before it can book revenue from that backlog. Revenue rose 30% to $19.3 billion in the fiscal first quarter, and cloud infrastructure revenue grew 121% to $7.4 billion.

Capital spending reached $28 billion in the quarter, and free cash flow was-$5 billion. Management expects $90 billion to $95 billion of capital spending this fiscal year.

Total debt stands at $169.14 billion. With that much debt, a delayed campus or a major customer renegotiating would leave Oracle little room to take the hit.

Mizuho Sees $320 While Yorkville Ives Waits for Proof Mizuho named Oracle a top pick for October with a $320 target, more than double the current price. Yorkville Ives started coverage in line with a $155 target, roughly 10% above the close. The firm said it is “staying on the sidelines until the company shows it can execute a build of this scale.”

Coverage leans bullish, with 7 Strong Buy, 28 Buy, 7 Hold and 1 Sell ratings. Price targets are estimates of how well Oracle will execute, so they carry no guarantee.

Last Thursday, the shares fell 5.48% to $135.69 as AI stocks generally dropped after a report on OpenAI’s revenue. They rose 4.59% the next session. Year to date, Oracle is down 26.49%, while the S&P 500 is up 14.17%.

Delivery Risk Outweighs Oracle’s Cheap Multiple A forward earnings multiple of about 18 looks cheap. But free cash flow is negative, debt is heavy, and the delivery schedule depends on permits and pipelines that Oracle doesn’t control.

The lower target looks wrong. If the Jupiter pipeline reaches service, backlog will keep growing in the next quarterly report and free cash flow will improve as campuses ramp up. The higher target looks wrong if more sites need trucked gas or a large customer cuts back its commitments.

Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) offers a useful comparison for AI demand exposure. Azure revenue grew 43% last quarter, and Microsoft produced $19.639 billion of free cash flow while spending $35.802 billion on capital projects.

That self-funding expansion is what Oracle still needs to prove it can manage, and until it does, Microsoft shows how an AI expansion can be funded with far less balance-sheet risk.

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

Oracle and Microsoft shares fell Thursday after questions emerged about OpenAI's annualized recurring revenue. Summary

OpenAI’s ARR was reportedly approaching $50 billion at the end of the period cited.

Oracle Corp. (ORCL, Financials), the enterprise software and cloud infrastructure company, fell Thursday alongside Microsoft after a report raised questions about the size of OpenAI's annualized recurring revenue.

OpenAI's ARR was approaching $50 billion at the end of the period cited, according to the report, but was significantly below figures that had previously circulated.

The supplied report cuts off before giving the full comparison, so the size of that gap remains unclear.

For Oracle investors, however, the market reaction matters.

The company has become increasingly exposed to the enormous infrastructure requirements behind artificial intelligence. That makes the economics of major AI customers increasingly important to the investment case.

If AI companies generate revenue more slowly than expected while continuing to require enormous amounts of computing capacity, investors may become more cautious about the returns infrastructure providers can earn from the spending boom.

Microsoft shares also declined Thursday, showing that the concern extends beyond Oracle.

The reaction highlights a broader shift in the AI trade. Investors are no longer looking only at how much money is being spent on data centers and chips. They increasingly want evidence that end customers can generate enough revenue to support those commitments.

The next catalyst will be additional information clarifying OpenAI's recurring revenue and how quickly it is growing relative to its infrastructure spending.

Disclosures I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and have no plans to buy any new positions in the stocks mentioned within the next 72 hours.

Click for the complete disclosure

Oracle (NYSE: ORCL) has recorded a major insider trading transaction after director Stephen Rusckowski purchased nearly $3.5 million worth of stock.

The filing shows that Rusckowski acquired 25,000 Oracle shares on September 29, 2026, at an average price of $139.35 per share, for a total investment of approximately $3.48 million. 

The purchase was disclosed as Oracle shares traded well below their 2026 highs. By press time, ORCL stock was trading at $142, down nearly 30% year-to-date in 2026.

Oracle insider transaction. Source: Barchart Notably, the transaction stands out because insider purchases of this size are relatively rare, particularly during periods of market uncertainty. 

Investors often view insider buying as a sign that company executives or directors believe a stock is undervalued.

Rusckowski’s purchase follows another notable insider development. On September 12, Oracle founder Larry Ellison canceled plans to sell up to 50 million shares worth about $7.5 billion, with the company confirming that no shares were sold. 

Combined with Rusckowski’s purchase, the moves have been viewed by some investors as a sign of insider confidence despite Oracle’s sharp decline in 2026.

Oracle stock fundamentals  The insider purchase follows several significant developments that have reshaped Oracle’s investment narrative in recent months.

In June, the company reported fiscal 2026 fourth-quarter results that highlighted the scale of its AI-driven growth. Oracle posted full-year revenue of $67.4 billion, while cloud revenue surged 39%.

Oracle’s cloud infrastructure business grew 77% during fiscal 2026, accelerating to 93% growth in the fourth quarter. 

The company also revealed remaining performance obligations of $638 billion, providing investors with visibility into future contracted revenue.

Management projected fiscal 2027 revenue of approximately $90 billion, reinforcing expectations that Oracle could emerge as one of the biggest beneficiaries of rising enterprise demand for AI computing infrastructure.

Momentum continued on October 1 when reports emerged that Chinese technology giant Tencent had signed a five-year agreement worth about $7 billion to lease roughly 100,000 advanced AI chips through Oracle-operated data centers in Southeast Asia.

The deal is considered one of the largest AI infrastructure agreements announced this year and further strengthened Oracle’s position in the rapidly expanding AI cloud market.

ORCL stock 2026 pressure  Despite strong cloud growth, Oracle stock has faced pressure in 2026 as investors weigh the cost of its AI expansion. 

The company reported $32 billion in operating cash flow but negative free cash flow of $23.7 billion due to heavy spending on AI infrastructure. Oracle also raised $43 billion in debt and $5 billion in equity financing during fiscal 2026.

While bulls see Oracle as a long-term AI winner backed by a $638 billion backlog and a reported $7 billion Tencent deal, bears remain concerned about debt levels, spending requirements, and execution risks.

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Oracle just burned through billions in free cash flow while a $664 billion backlog sits waiting to convert, and Wall Street analysts are betting the gap between those two numbers holds the key to a 67% return.

This post may contain links from our sponsors and affiliates, and Flywheel Publishing may receive compensation for actions taken through them.

Oracle (NYSE:ORCL | ORCL Price Prediction) trades at $142.50. Cash burn today funds AI capacity customers have already signed up to use.

Oracle built its name on database software and enterprise applications. Cloud now drives the story, reaching 60% of total revenue last quarter. The stock is down 50.16% over the past year from a 52-week high of $319.46. Investors pulled back after free cash flow came in at negative $23.7 billion in fiscal 2026 and negative $5.4 billion last quarter.

A $664 Billion Backlog Is Converting Into Revenue Q1 fiscal 2027 revenue rose 29.6% to $19.345 billion, with cloud infrastructure revenue up 121% to $7.39 billion. Remaining performance obligations hit $664 billion, with management expecting “around half of our RPO to convert into sales over the next 36 months.” GPU utilization was 97.9%, and renewed capacity commanded a 20% premium.

Oracle booked over $30 billion in new AI contracts requiring no extra cash, mostly structured as prepayments or bring-your-own-hardware deals. Operating cash flow rose 184% to $23.1 billion. Guidance calls for at least $90 billion in fiscal 2027 revenue and $8.10 in non-GAAP EPS. The stock trades at 18x forward earnings with a PEG ratio of 0.807.

A Ballooning Capex Bill Strains the Balance Sheet Capex reached $28.5 billion in a single quarter, and management expects $90 to $95 billion for the full year. When asked when free cash flow turns positive, management said, “We haven’t given a particular timeframe on that yet.” Interest expense rose 55% to $1.4 billion, and total liabilities stand at $236.06 billion. A completed $20 billion at-the-market equity program diluted existing shareholders.

Software license revenue fell 15%. The backlog is concentrated in a few large AI customers, and new sites in New Mexico and Wisconsin still face regulatory approval and power hurdles (the same power and cooling constraint we broke down across seven AI infrastructure suppliers: here). Shares fell 13% after the Q2 fiscal 2026 revenue miss.

Investor Day Could Settle the Margin Debate Management expects gross margins to flatten as expansion finishes and will detail margins at its upcoming Investor Day. Shares trade under the 200-day moving average of $162.89 and near the 50-day average of $143.59. A firm free cash flow timeline or smooth Vera Rubin delivery would strengthen the bull case. A capex increase without matching prepayments would strengthen the bearish thesis.

Wall Street Sees 67% Upside in a Stock Cut in Half The average analyst target is $237.97, meaning 67% upside. Of 43 analysts covering the stock:

Strong Buy: 7 Buy: 28 Hold: 7 Sell: 1 Oracle trades at 22 times trailing earnings. Over the past year the stock lost 50.16% while the S&P 500 gained 15.01%. Year to date, Oracle is down 26.28% and the index is up 12.86%.

Negative Free Cash Flow Is Funding a Contracted Growth Engine At $142.50, Oracle’s investment case rests on cash flow quality and backlog conversion.

Negative free cash flow exaggerates the problem. After prepayments, Q1 cash capex was $18 billion, below operating cash flow. Management caps full-year net cash capex at 70 billion. Hilary Maxson said scaled projects deliver “a free cash flow conversion ratio of something like 100% to post-tax EBITDA.”

RPO conversion drives upside. Q2 guidance calls for 65-71% cloud growth. Co-founder Larry Ellison also canceled his plan to sell Oracle stock.

The thesis breaks if renewal pricing falls, utilization drops, or the prepayment share shrinks and forces more debt. Those three signals are the key metrics to monitor each quarter.

At 18x forward earnings, Oracle carries a $664 billion signed backlog, with prepayments already offsetting part of its cash burn.

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

Key Takeaways Oracle's multicloud database revenues surged 353% as its cloud consumption shift accelerated.Pay-per-use pricing expands Oracle's market, but partner-hosted deployments add capital intensity.MongoDB and Snowflake are expanding margins, while Oracle's infrastructure buildout weighs on free cash flow. Oracle Corporation's (ORCL - Free Report) database business is being repositioned around cloud consumption, raising a central question: can its historically lucrative database franchise sustain margins as delivery shifts from licenses to usage?

Oracle made Exadata Database Service on Exascale Infrastructure generally available on Oracle AI Database@AWS, extending Exadata-class performance with pay-per-use pricing. Oracle also signed an expanded long-term collaboration agreement with Amazon Web Services (“AWS”) to accelerate customer migrations. The service now spans 22 AWS Regions.

The momentum was evident in first-quarter fiscal 2027 results. Multicloud database revenues surged 353% year over year, while multicloud customers rose 180%, and Oracle completed its planned expansion across Azure and AWS, reaching 70 multicloud database regions.

The shift, however, carries margin trade-offs. Software revenues, home to the legacy license and support streams, declined 3% to $5.5 billion as customers kept migrating on-premise workloads to the cloud. Pay-per-use pricing widens the addressable market but lowers entry price points, while partner-hosted deployments rely on Oracle hardware placed inside AWS data centers, adding capital intensity absent from traditional support contracts.

Consolidated profitability has held firm so far. Total revenues rose 30% to $19.3 billion, while non-GAAP operating income climbed 31% to $8.2 billion, implying a margin of about 42%, roughly in line with the year-ago level. GAAP operating income jumped 57% to $6.7 billion. Yet capital expenditures reached $28.5 billion, leaving free cash flow at negative $5 billion. Oracle expects to raise about $40 billion through debt and equity in fiscal 2027.

Guidance points to continued scale. For the second quarter, Oracle projects revenue growth of 30-34%, cloud revenue growth of 65-71% and non-GAAP EPS of $1.85-$1.93. For fiscal 2027, it expects revenues of at least $90 billion and non-GAAP EPS of $8.10, supported by remaining performance obligations of $664 billion.

Whether database margins endure will depend on multicloud volumes outpacing the erosion of legacy software revenues, while infrastructure costs keep climbing.

MDB & SNOW Show Consumption Margins ScalingMongoDB (MDB - Free Report) and Snowflake (SNOW - Free Report) offer a useful benchmark for consumption-based database economics. In second-quarter fiscal 2027, MongoDB’s revenues grew 30% to $771.8 million, with Atlas up about 29%, while its non-GAAP operating margin widened to 24% from 15%. MongoDB expects full-year margin expansion of roughly 250 basis points.

Snowflake’s product revenues increased 37% to $1.49 billion and non-GAAP operating margin improved to 15.3% from 11.1%. Snowflake raised its fiscal 2027 margin outlook to 14.5%. Both remain well below Oracle's roughly 42% non-GAAP operating margin, yet each is expanding profitability without the capital-intensive infrastructure buildout that is now weighing on Oracle's free cash flow.

ORCL’s Price Performance, Valuation & EstimatesORCL shares have plunged 29.2% year to date, underperforming the Zacks Computer and Technology sector’s growth of 22.4% and the Zacks Computer - Software industry’s decline of 3.5%.

ORCL’s YTD Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

ORCL’s valuation remains relatively attractive, with the stock trading at a trailing 12-month P/E ratio of 20.3X, lower than the sector average of 1.02X. Oracle has a Value Score of C.

ORCL’s Valuation Chart
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ORCL’s fiscal 2027 earnings is currently pegged at $8.12 per share. The estimate implies 6.42% year-over-year earnings growth.

ORCL currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

SummaryOracle Corporation maintains a Buy rating as revenue timing, not demand, drives current risk; signed contracts support robust forward visibility.ORCL's Q1 delivered 850 MW of AI capacity—85% of guidance—with utilization at 97.9% and renewals at a 20% premium, underscoring resilient demand.Backlog covers ~93% of FY27 revenue guidance, with $86 billion due within 12 months and customer prepayments funding 40% of capex.Texas' Shackelford campus is poised to drive growth into FY28, while New Mexico's Jupiter project faces permitting delays but doesn't impact ORCL FY27 guidance. Getty Images

Back on Aug. 25, I argued that Oracle Corporation (ORCL) had a timing problem while the market was pricing in a demand problem, and the stock didn't take my side. Instead, it slid from about $146 to $137.30 as of

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Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

Aterio's base case has full capacity arriving around October 2028 Summary

Aterio sees a material risk that Oracle's 1.3 GW Port Washington campus misses its second-half 2027 target, with meaningful power unlikely before mid-2028.

Oracle ORCL shares were down 0.72% in premarket after infrastructure data provider Aterio said there is a material risk that Project Lighthouse, the 1.3-gigawatt campus Vantage Data Centers is building for Oracle in Port Washington, Wisconsin, misses Oracle's second-half 2027 delivery guidance. Based on regulatory filings reviewed through September 24, Aterio said meaningful load is unlikely before mid-2028.

Construction is moving ahead, with permits in hand and two of the four halls already enclosed, according to satellite imagery. The holdup is power. The campus can't start operating until American Transmission Co. builds a new high-voltage connection, and the Public Service Commission of Wisconsin sent the first application back in August, forcing a refiling in September that reset the review clock.

Aterio's base case, assuming a 180-day decision, has partial power around December 2027 and full capacity around October 2028. An extended 360-day review would push full capacity to around April 2029, and the firm noted the regulator used its extension in every comparable case it reviewed. The next milestone is the commission's decision on whether the new application is complete, expected around October 19.

Disclosures I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and have no plans to buy any new positions in the stocks mentioned within the next 72 hours.

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Oppenheimer places Oracle among software vendors exceeding $1 billion in AI business, but customers now demand measurable returns. Summary

Oracle’s AI scale matters only if spending converts into durable cloud margins.

Oracle ORCL, the database, applications and AI-cloud provider, rose about 1% to $133.96 at 10.04 EST time on Tuesday trading, even as investors weighed a tougher question: when will AI spending pay off? Oppenheimer included Oracle among software companies with AI businesses exceeding $1 billion, but said corporate buyers are demanding measurable returns.

The growth is real. Oracle reported $11.6 billion in quarterly cloud revenue, up 62%, while cloud infrastructure revenue more than doubled to $7.4 billion. The bill is real, too: free cash flow was negative $5 billion as the company built capacity to meet demand.

The chart puts Oracle's $133.96 share price 30.61% below its $193.04 GF Value estimate. That gap looks tempting, but the payoff hinges on turning booked AI demand into sustained revenue and cash flow. More capacity alone will not close it.

Disclosures I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and have no plans to buy any new positions in the stocks mentioned within the next 72 hours.

Click for the complete disclosure

New governed agentic execution runtime enables Oracle Fusion Agentic Applications to complete highly complex work more autonomously at scale

25 Claw-powered Fusion Agentic Applications are now available to help organizations drive business outcomes with built-in, enterprise-grade governance and security controls

, /PRNewswire/ -- Oracle today announced Oracle Fusion Claw, a governed agentic execution runtime for Oracle Fusion Agentic Applications that combines AI reasoning with deterministic enterprise computation to enable highly complex work to be economically completed at scale. Oracle Fusion Applications customers can take advantage of Fusion Claw through 25 new Claw-powered agentic applications that can reason, compute, adapt, and execute specialist-grade work including deep research, computation, simulation, modeling, and continuous re-planning. The new Claw-powered Agentic Applications are the latest additions to the growing portfolio of 75 Agentic Applications that can coordinate and execute end-to-end business processes.

"Every organization is looking at AI and asking the same question: how can we use it to create measurable value for our business?" said Mike Sicilia, CEO, Oracle. "Fusion Claw helps answer that question by moving from AI assistance to execution, enabling customers to automate increasingly complex work across their most important business processes, with enterprise-grade governance. By letting AI take on more of the work, while people set the objectives and guardrails, organizations can unlock tremendous capacity for their teams to focus more on driving growth, innovation, and serving customers."

Agentic Applications represent a new class of outcome-based applications that provide Fusion Applications customers with a system of outcomes, where people define the objectives, authority, and accountability and the Agentic Applications coordinate the process to get to an outcome. Fusion Claw enables Agentic Applications to take on more complex, specialist-grade work by providing a new execution runtime that supports larger scale and longer-running work, continuous replanning, deterministic execution, and increased governed autonomy. Each Claw Outcome begins with a frontier model that reasons, plans, learns, and adapts. Fusion Claw then uses deterministic enterprise computation to execute precisely and at scale. This separation provides Fusion Applications customers with a potential economic advantage by applying AI reasoning only where intelligence is needed and using efficient deterministic computation for high-volume execution.

To govern autonomous enterprise execution, Fusion Claw applies an Enterprise Operating Envelope, which includes an organization's objectives, standard operating procedures, policies, constraints, permissions, risk thresholds, decision rights, approval requirements, and escalation boundaries. The operating envelope is enforced across all outcomes through an Outcome Trust Harness that applies specific governing authority and controls to each outcome run, including identity, capabilities, data, and actions. When the outcome is complete, an Outcome Receipt provides an auditable record of exactly what happened, including the authority applied, evidence used, decisions made, actions and transactions executed, and the result. In addition, Fusion Applications customers can decide what level of automation they want a process to have, ranging from quick assistance to governed full auto execution within explicitly delegated authority.

Running on Oracle Cloud Infrastructure and powered by industry-leading frontier models including Gemini and OpenAI, with support for additional frontier models planned over time, new Claw-powered Agentic Applications extend the broader Agentic Applications portfolio. There are 25 new Claw-powered, full auto-capable Agentic Applications available today, including:

Ledger: Helps finance leaders improve close readiness and resolve accounting exceptions faster by working across large volumes of accounting entries to reconcile information, investigate exceptions and anomalies, and apply deterministic computation to complex financial analysis and execution. Workforce Staffing: Helps HR leaders create executable staffing plans that meet coverage and service requirements while balancing constraints, including skills and accreditations, availability, schedules, labor rules, costs, coverage, and service requirements, with the ability to evaluate alternatives and continuously re-plan as conditions change. Shipping Consolidation: Helps supply chain leaders reduce shipping costs while addressing service requirements and customer commitments by modelling consolidation alternatives across timing, capacity, service commitments, cost, and other constraints, and then carrying the best supported plan into governed execution when authorized. Account Territory Growth Plan: Helps sales leaders achieve better coverage and opportunity allocation by modelling and comparing scenarios across different territory configurations, evaluating tradeoffs, and optimizing against capacity and business constraints before taking governed action. The new Claw-powered Agentic Applications are part of a broader Fusion AI ecosystem anchored by Oracle AI Agent Studio for Fusion Applications. With the Agentic Applications Builder and AI Studio Skill no-code and pro-code capabilities in Oracle AI Agent Studio, organizations can create and manage agentic applications using reusable Oracle, partner, and external agents. In addition, built-in observability, ROI measurement, and safety controls enable agents to deliver measurable value and operate responsibly at scale.

Fusion Claw Partner and Analyst Quotes

"Agentic AI is reinventing how work gets done across the enterprise," said Julie Sweet, Chair and CEO, Accenture. "Oracle Fusion Claw enables organizations to apply AI to more complex, outcome-driven work while always keeping humans in the lead. Combined with Accenture's industry and transformation expertise, this new capability can help our clients redesign processes for better business outcomes and create new sources of value."

"Together with Oracle, we're helping organizations move from isolated AI pilots to scaled adoption by connecting technology with the operating models, governance, and change capabilities needed to realize value," said Joe Ucuzoglu, Global CEO, Deloitte. "We look forward to advancing that journey alongside Oracle, supporting more complex, outcome-oriented work while keeping accountability and control at the center."

"The next phase of enterprise AI will require models that can reason through complex problems while working within the systems businesses use every day," said Kevin Ichhpurani, president, Global Partner Ecosystem, Google Cloud. "By bringing Gemini models to Oracle Fusion Claw, Oracle is combining frontier AI with the context, controls, and execution capabilities of its market-leading enterprise applications. This creates an important foundation for AI that can take on more sophisticated work while operating within the boundaries organizations define."

"Fusion Claw is an important and logical next step in the evolution of enterprise agentic AI," said Aly Pinder, research vice president, Aftermarket Services Strategies, IDC. "Oracle is moving the conversation from agents that assist with individual tasks to a next generation of applications that can take on increasingly complex work around a business outcome. With an execution architecture that can combine AI reasoning with precise enterprise computation and governed action, Oracle Fusion Applications customers can gain significant value from enterprise AI."

"Organizations want to move quickly with agentic AI, but greater autonomy is often only possible when built upon a solid foundation of trust, accountability and proper controls," said Rob Fisher, Global Head of Advisory, KPMG International. "Oracle Fusion Claw is designed to bring these requirements together and give organizations the confidence they need to use agentic AI for high value processes. This is another example of how Oracle's investments in AI and agentic capabilities are redefining the solutions and value KPMG firms and Oracle can jointly bring to clients." 

"The clients leading on AI are reinventing customer experiences, products and services, and back-office processes through agentic AI," said Dan Priest, US Chief AI Officer, PwC. "Capabilities like Oracle Fusion Claw make it possible to apply AI to more complex business processes, with the autonomy and governed execution those processes demand. Combining Oracle's technology with PwC's industry and transformation experience, we can help clients turn that into new ways of working and measurable business outcomes."

###

About Oracle Fusion Cloud Applications
Oracle Fusion Cloud Applications are a complete suite of cloud applications that form the enterprise system of record, spanning finance, HR, supply chain, manufacturing, sales, service, and marketing. The suite includes Oracle Fusion Cloud Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP), Oracle Fusion Cloud Human Capital Management (HCM), Oracle Fusion Cloud Supply Chain & Manufacturing (SCM), and Oracle Fusion Cloud Customer Experience (CX).

Fusion Agentic Applications extend that foundation into a system of outcomes. They can coordinate and execute end-to-end work toward business objectives, and are designed to operate within the policies, controls, and authority each organization defines. With Oracle AI Agent Studio for Fusion Applications, customers and partners can create, extend, and manage these agents and agentic applications combining trusted enterprise data with the security, data governance, and performance needed to operate at scale.

About Oracle
Oracle offers integrated suites of applications plus secure, autonomous infrastructure in the Oracle Cloud. For more information about Oracle (NYSE: ORCL), please visit us at www.oracle.com.

Trademarks
Oracle, Java, MySQL, and NetSuite are registered trademarks of Oracle Corporation. NetSuite was the first cloud company—ushering in the new era of cloud computing.

SOURCE Oracle

Oracle Corp. (NYSE:ORCL) shares moved lower Monday after Alphabet Inc.’s (NASDAQ:GOOGL) (NASDAQ:GOOG) cybersecurity unit, Mandiant, said a notorious hacking group returned to one of Oracle’s most widely used enterprise products.

Google’s Mandiant said Friday that ShinyHunters has renewed “mass exploitation” of a flaw in Oracle’s PeopleSoft software, according to Reuters. The group successfully exploited defenses organizations put in place after an earlier wave of attacks this summer. 

ORCL stock is down. See the real-time price action here.  The earlier intrusions ran from May 27 through June 9 and mainly hit universities, Reuters reported. 

Firewalls Weren’t EnoughThe new campaign shows the attackers adjusted to guidance published after the first wave. Mandiant said the hackers went after organizations that added web application firewall rules but skipped the update Oracle released to fix the vulnerability. 

Mandiant did not name victims. It said the latest activity reached dozens of systems worldwide across higher education, technology, healthcare, agriculture, transportation and government.

The FBI AngleThe timing adds weight to the report. Mandiant’s findings landed days after ShinyHunters claimed it had stolen FBI personnel data.

The group has said it reached the FBI data through a PeopleSoft vulnerability. Reuters said it could not corroborate that claim, and Oracle did not respond to the outlet’s requests for comment.

In a statement last Wednesday, the FBI said it was “aggressively investigating” the reported breach. ShinyHunters also claimed it took psychiatric and medical records of bureau staff, and Reuters said it partially authenticated some of the files.

Read Next

A Zero-Day HistoryThe first campaign was a true zero-day. The attacks happened before Oracle issued a security advisory on June 10, so no patch existed at the time, Reuters reported in June.

Google said then that it notified more than 100 organizations with potentially vulnerable endpoints. Most were in the U.S., and 68% were in higher education.

ShinyHunters has a record of targeting global companies for extortion.

Stock Under PressureOracle was already under pressure before Monday. In late June, the stock logged its worst week since 2001 with a 19% drop as investors grew uneasy about the company’s debt load and heavy AI infrastructure spending, much of it tied to OpenAI commitments.

The stock has since lost about 58% from its 52-week high of $322.54. It remains above its 52-week low of $114.50.

ORCL Stock Price Action: Oracle stock was down 2.2% to $134.09 at the time of publication Monday, according to Benzinga Pro market data.

Read Next

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Shares of Oracle Corp Japan surged more than 7% Friday after the company reported record fiscal first-quarter sales and profits, as its cloud business posted strong growth. 

The rally in Tokyo stood in contrast to a more than 3% drop in U.S.-listed Oracle shares overnight, after the company sent a "force majeure" notice tied to its New Mexico data center project.

Oracle shares in the U.S. vs. Japan

The Japanese arm said Thursday that net sales for the June-August quarter rose 13% from a year earlier to 74.86 billion yen ($472 million), while operating profit jumped 22.7% to 25.92 billion yen. Net profit climbed 23.2% to 18.25 billion yen. 

Net sales and all profit items hit record highs for a fiscal first quarter, the company said.

Cloud revenue jumped 31.7% year on year to 25.14 billion yen, increasing its share of total sales to 33.6% from 28.8% a year earlier.

Oracle Japan said demand for cloud infrastructure had driven usage of its Tokyo and Osaka data centers. The company also said it plans to expand its sovereign cloud offering and strengthen its AI solutions in Japan. 

The company maintained its full-year outlook for sales growth of 6-10%.

Oracle in 2024 committed more than $8 billion to cloud and AI infrastructure in Japan over a decade, while SoftBank has rolled out sovereign cloud and generative AI services using Oracle technology. 

New capabilities help banks extend ISO 20022 payment operations into digital money, provide prebuilt Oracle Banking Payments integration for intelligent orchestration, integrate with Swift Ledger, and support AI-assisted risk analysis and transaction oversight

, /PRNewswire/ -- Oracle today announced an expansion of Oracle Digital Assets Data Nexus1, with payment execution integrations, configurable wallet and smart contract controls for customer-defined governance and compliance policies, and AI-enabled oversight. The new integrations connect banking and payment operations with digital-asset transaction execution using ISO 20022 messaging, helping banks extend their money-movement operating model across traditional and digital forms of money and value. This brings improved visibility across ledgers, more consistent controls, and reduced operational fragmentation. AI-enabled monitoring and analysis will help banks identify operational exceptions, transaction anomalies, liquidity pressures, and other emerging risks and trigger policy-controlled responses.

Built for regulated financial services, Oracle Digital Assets Data Nexus is designed to provide an enterprise foundation for blockchain-based digital-asset issuance, custody, transactions, governance, and embedded supervision, helping customers move from pilot to production with enterprise-grade resilience and security.

The platform will support provisioning and operation of multiple blockchain ledgers, alongside custodial wallets, prebuilt and composable smart contracts, and workflow orchestration to coordinate on-chain and off-chain activity, including atomic transactions across participating systems. Integration with Oracle AI Database will bring ledger history, smart-contract state, and workflow records into a unified data foundation for reconciliation, audit, monitoring, and analysis.

"As tokenized deposits, stablecoins, CBDCs, and other digital forms of money become more widely used in payments, settlement, and liquidity management, banks must support a growing range of assets, networks, and settlement models. At the same time, they need to preserve control over liquidity, risk, customer relationships, and operations," said Mark Rakhmilevich, vice president, mission critical data platform technologies, Oracle.

"Oracle Digital Assets Data Nexus helps financial institutions move from experimentation to production by integrating digital assets with existing banking and payment systems. It provides resilience, and enables governance and compliance controls for regulated operations, supporting a common operating model for money movement without creating a new silo for every asset or network."

These new Digital Assets Data Nexus capabilities build on the platform's multi-ledger tokenization foundation, digital-asset lifecycle management, and modular cloud and on-premises deployment. The offering also provides low-code tools with reference smart contracts, APIs, and sample applications that support use cases spanning tokenized deposits and stablecoins, CBDCs, digital bonds and funds, and real-world assets across banking environments and emerging multi-bank interoperability models such as Commercial Bank Money Token (CBMT) and Swift Ledger.

Extend existing payment operations into digital money
Digital Assets Data Nexus will integrate with existing ISO 20022-based payment hubs and enterprise systems to support digital-money transactions rather than creating a separate payment stack. It will map payment instructions, customers, and accounts to wallets and digital-money rails; coordinate on- and off-chain execution; and return payment status, account reporting, and transaction notifications to existing payment hubs.

For Oracle Banking Payments customers, prebuilt integration with Digital Assets Data Nexus will extend payment processing to digital forms of money and tokenized-money networks, supported by programmable wallets, digital-asset controls, and AI-enabled decisioning. Together, the platforms will help support context-aware intelligent orchestration across traditional and tokenized money, coordinating payment routing and execution with digital-asset workflows, liquidity positioning, funding, FX, and settlement requirements.

The platform is also designed to integrate with Swift Ledger, enabling banks to record corresponding interbank payment commitments and transaction state within their tokenized-deposit environment. Event-driven orchestration will synchronize that state with Swift Ledger and trigger workflows across custodial wallets and existing bank payment systems to complete settlement over existing RTGS or correspondent-banking rails. This architecture is designed to enable banks to participate in Swift's shared orchestration model through a bank-managed digital assets hub, retaining control of their tokenized deposits, wallets, and settlement options.

Embed end-to-end controls and intelligence
24/7 digital-money transactions can become technically irreversible on a blockchain in near real time, compressing the time available to identify unauthorized activity, catch operational errors, detect financial crime indicators, and resolve execution exceptions outside normal banking hours.

To help banks operate effectively under these conditions, Digital Assets Data Nexus embeds end-to-end compliance and transaction controls. Before and during execution, it can integrate KYC/KYB and sanctions/AML screening into transactional workflows and enforce wallet and authorization policies, transfer-eligibility rules, limits, and approvals. It will also bring together workflow audit trails, wallet-policy evaluations, transaction and ledger history, and smart-contract state changes in Oracle AI Database to create governed, auditable books and records for post-execution control verification, cross-system reconciliation, anomaly and fraud-pattern detection, investigations, and regulatory reporting.

Building on this converged data foundation, the offering uses Oracle AI Database to enable behavioral and graph analytics, vector-based similarity search, and natural-language inquiries to identify episodes of suspicious activity and coordinated patterns. This brings graph, spatial, JSON, blockchain, and vector capabilities together over a unified data record, enabling banks to connect transaction relationships, geographic context, and semantic insights with tamper-resistant history—without maintaining separate data stores for each capability, reducing data duplication, reconciliation effort, and data-management complexity.

Digital Assets Data Nexus APIs enable customers to turn those insights into policy-controlled supervisory actions by triggering cross-system workflows, updating smart-contract controls and wallet policies, and invoking related bank processes—for example, enabling workflows to adjust risk scores, limits, or approval thresholds, place holds, suspend accounts, or freeze token activity, with human oversight.

To learn more about Digital Assets Data Nexus visit https://www.oracle.com/blockchain/#data-nexus or see our solutions in action by visiting Oracle's Exhibition Stand H057 at SIBOS in Miami, Florida Sept. 28-Oct. 1, 2026.

About Oracle Financial Services
Oracle Financial Services provides solutions for retail banking, corporate banking, payments, asset management, life insurance, annuities, and healthcare payers. With our comprehensive set of integrated digital and data platforms, banks and insurers are empowered to deliver next-generation financial services. We enable customer-centric transformation, support collaborative innovation, and drive efficiency. Our data and analytical platforms help financial institutions drive customer insight, integrate risk and finance, fight financial crime, and comply with regulations. To learn more, visit our website at https://www.oracle.com/financial-services/.

About Oracle
Oracle offers integrated suites of applications plus secure, autonomous infrastructure in the Oracle Cloud. For more information about Oracle (NYSE: ORCL), please visit us at www.oracle.com.

Future Product Disclaimer
The preceding is intended to outline our general product direction. It is intended for information purposes only and may not be incorporated into any contract. It is not a commitment to deliver any material, code, or functionality, and should not be relied upon in making purchasing decisions. The development, release, timing, and pricing of any features or functionality described for Oracle's products may change and remains at the sole discretion of Oracle Corporation.

Trademarks
Oracle, Java, MySQL, and NetSuite are registered trademarks of Oracle Corporation. NetSuite was the first cloud company—ushering in the new era of cloud computing.

        1 Planned to be available fiscal year 2027. 

SOURCE Oracle

There’s a kind of trade that feels safest at the exact moment it’s most exposed. You know the pattern if you’ve been around long enough: the position everyone agrees on, the one with the obvious tailwind, the one where the downside feels handled by someone bigger than you. Right now, Wall Street has a nickname for these plays — “Trump dividend stocks” — and they’re spread across rare-earth miners, chipmakers, defense-tech names, and a growing list of companies the U.S. government has quietly taken a stake in.

I want to give it a more honest name, because the bullish one hides the risk. Call it the Government Put.

Trump Dividend Stocks: Why I Call It the Government Put You’ve heard of the Fed put — the market’s faith that the central bank steps in when things break. You’ve heard of the China put and the OPEC put. The Government Put is the newest member of the family, and it’s the most literal one yet. Since early 2025, Washington has become an unusually direct owner of American companies: by most estimates it has taken stock, warrants, golden shares, or profit interests in roughly 30 to 40 companies — approaching $30 billion — across mining, technology, energy, and defense. It holds about 10% of Intel (INTC) and 15% of MP Materials (MP).

The market’s response was euphoric and understandable. When the government buys a stake, guarantees a floor under your output, and promises to buy what you produce, your risk profile changes overnight. In rare earths especially, that lit a fuse. Neodymium-praseodymium oxide rose roughly 138% in the opening months of 2026, and the equities went vertical — MP Materials up 223% on the year, Trilogy Metals more than 270%, some junior miners several hundred percent. A February 2026 initiative put the government directly into domestic developers, and commentators began describing a “policy floor” beneath the whole sector — a re-rating from speculative commodity to “sovereign-class asset.”

Here’s the problem with a policy floor.

A floor built by policy can be moved by policy.

Why Government-Backed Stocks Put the Risk on You Try a simple exercise on any of these names. Split today’s price into two pieces. The first is what the business is worth on its own — the earnings, the assets, the realistic path to cash flow. The second is everything the market is paying on top of that because Washington is a shareholder, a lender, a guaranteed customer, or a price-setter.

Call that second piece the Washington premium. It’s real, it’s large in some of these names, and it exists only as long as investors believe the government’s support is permanent.

Now the uncomfortable part. If you own one of these stocks for the “government has my back” reason, you are not the one holding downside protection. You are the one who sold it. You collected a premium — the re-rating, the pop, the floor — and in exchange you are implicitly short a political option. As long as the arrangement holds and nobody asks hard questions, you keep the premium. If the political weather turns, you own the tail.

The Government Put isn’t downside protection the crowd bought. It’s a bet on calm the crowd doesn’t know it’s making.

Why the Political Risk Gets Real on November 3 Premiums built on a belief don’t need a contract to be canceled to unwind. They only need the belief to wobble — and the calendar is about to hand the market a reason.

Prediction markets now put Democrats around 90% to take the House and around 61% to take the Senate this November — favored, at the moment, in both chambers. This is not a political prediction and it doesn’t require one; it’s simply what’s priced. But the mechanism is what counts: control of the House alone hands the other party subpoena power, committee chairs, and the ability to compel documents and testimony. You don’t need new laws to compress a policy premium. You need hearings, letters, and headlines.

And that machinery is already turning. Congress sent letters in February, March, and July of 2026 demanding the selection criteria and legal justifications behind the stakes — one of them naming specific companies and asking for the documents behind each deal. The Senate’s 2027 defense bill would require an ownership review of every company the Pentagon holds equity in. An Intel shareholder lawsuit is already challenging the legitimacy of the government’s equity demands. And the public mood is no tailwind: a July poll found 49% of voters consider government ownership stakes inappropriate, against just 19% who support them.

None of that cancels a single contract. All of it can move a stock.

A stock doesn’t reprice when the support disappears. It reprices the moment the market stops believing the support is permanent.

3 Types of Government-Backed Stocks Not every name carries the same political fragility. Sort them by how the government created the premium, because that determines how easily it can be contested.

Owner — the stocks the government owns outright through equity, warrants, or golden shares, plus the miners it backs with a price floor: MP Materials (MP), Intel (INTC), and the critical-minerals miners. Counterintuitively, this is the most durable leg. Critical minerals and domestic chips carry genuine, bipartisan national-security backing — that’s why MP became the prototype the whole program was built on. Contracts here don’t get torn up casually. What’s exposed isn’t the mission; it’s the structure of individual deals a hostile committee can put under a microscope.

Customer — where the government doesn’t own the company but is the demand: Microsoft (MSFT), Oracle (ORCL), Palantir (PLTR). The question isn’t “will they lose their contracts?” — they won’t. It’s how much of today’s multiple assumes federal cloud and AI spending keeps accelerating and consolidating. The premium sits in the growth assumption, not the base business.

Gatekeeper — where the government controls the addressable market through export licensing: Nvidia (NVDA) and AMD (AMD). This is the purest policy-duration risk of all, because it lives entirely on executive discretion. Nvidia took a $4.5 billion charge when H20 licenses to China were pulled, then generated only about $60 million once partial licenses returned. The current H200 regime is a case-by-case review with a 25% tariff and mandatory U.S. testing. Billions in addressable market turn on a posture that can change with a memo.

The gradient is the insight: the further you move from “national-security mission” toward “novel equity structure,” “procurement concentration,” and “discretionary license,” the thinner the political cover — and the fatter the premium at risk.

The Trump Dividend Stocks in Play Here’s the working roster, grouped by how Washington created the premium. The lower a name sits on this list, the thinner its political cover — and the more of its price may be riding on a posture that can change.

TickerCompanyHow Washington is involvedFlavorMPMP Materials15% federal stake, DoD price floor, guaranteed offtakeOWNERINTCIntel~10% government equity stake — now challenged in courtOWNERLACLithium AmericasFederal financing and warrants; named in Congress’ letterOWNERUSARUSA Rare EarthDirect funding, a loan facility, equity and warrantsOWNERTMQTrilogy Metals~10% government stake plus warrantsOWNERMSFTMicrosoftFederal cloud and AI demand baked into the growth storyCUSTOMERORCLOracleClassified cloud and defense-AI infrastructureCUSTOMERPLTRPalantirGovernment the anchor customer across its U.S. businessCUSTOMERNVDANvidiaChina export licenses gate a huge slice of the marketGATEKEEPERAMDAMDAdvanced-chip export licensing on the same knife-edgeGATEKEEPER Tickers are shown for identification and analysis only and are not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

To Be Fair: The Bull Case for Trump Dividend Stocks I’d distrust anyone selling this thesis without the counter-case, so here it is. These are momentum monsters — the right idea on the wrong tape will still bleed you out, and some of these names have multiplied several times over. Chips and critical minerals have real bipartisan support; the mission survives regardless of who runs the committees. And “obvious” election catalysts are notorious for being priced in early and disappointing the people who chase them.

All true — which is exactly why the honest version of this is not a crash call. It’s a premium-decay thesis. The bet isn’t that these companies fall apart in November. It’s that a premium built on the assumption of permanent, uncontested federal support has a harder time expanding — and an easier time leaking — in a world where both chambers of Congress are holding the subpoena pen.

How to Think About Government-Backed Stocks This isn’t a recommendation to short anything, and it isn’t a political call. It’s a lens. If a meaningful slice of a stock’s price is a Washington premium, then the responsible questions are simple. How big is that premium relative to the business underneath it? How durable is the policy that created it — mission-level and bipartisan, or a bespoke structure a single hearing can spotlight? And is the market charging anything at all for the possibility that the premium gets contested — or is it treating a policy floor as a law of nature?

For traders, the shape follows from the honest framing: a slow, undated catalyst rewards patience and defined risk, not a rushed directional bet on a short clock. The point isn’t to predict a crash. It’s to notice the risk you may already be carrying before the market wakes up to it.

Follow the Money, Not the Government-Backed Hype For years we’ve asked what happens when the Fed has the market’s back. The question now is stranger and bigger: what happens to a stock when the federal government is shareholder, lender, customer, price guarantor, permitting authority, and regulator — sometimes all at once, in the same company?

So far the answer has been extraordinary upside. That’s the “Trump dividend” everyone’s chasing. But it introduces a variable Wall Street isn’t used to modeling: policy-duration risk. Not the risk that the business disappears — the risk that investors quietly reconsider how permanent the favor really is.

Between now and November 3, one of these names is going to get a headline nearly every week — a hearing, a letter, a lawsuit docket, an export decision. Watch them. The crowd is pricing a floor. The opportunity is in the part of the price that’s really a risk nobody signed up for.

Trump Dividend Stocks FAQ What are Trump dividend stocks? Trump dividend stocks are the names Wall Street bought because Washington got involved. Since early 2025 the government has taken equity, warrants, golden shares, or price floors in dozens of companies across mining, chips, energy, and defense. The upside from that involvement is the so-called Trump dividend.

Which stocks does the U.S. government own? The clearest owned names are MP Materials, Intel, Lithium Americas, USA Rare Earth, and Trilogy Metals, where Washington holds equity, warrants, or golden shares. It owns about 15% of MP Materials and roughly 10% of Intel. Microsoft, Oracle, Palantir, Nvidia, and AMD are exposed too, but through demand or licensing, not ownership.

Why have Trump dividend stocks risen so much? When the government buys a stake, guarantees a floor under output, and promises to buy what a company produces, the risk profile changes overnight. Rare earths ran hardest: MP Materials rose 223% on the year and Trilogy Metals more than 270%. Investors began pricing a policy floor beneath the whole sector.

What is the Government Put? The Government Put is the belief that Washington’s involvement puts a floor under these stocks, the way the Fed put stands behind the broader market. The catch: if you own one of these names for that reason, you didn’t buy protection. You sold it. You keep the reward while the calm holds and eat the loss if politics turns.

What is the biggest risk to Trump dividend stocks? The risk isn’t that these businesses collapse. It’s that the premium built on permanent federal support starts to leak once investors doubt the support will last. It doesn’t take a canceled contract, just wavering belief. Hearings, letters, and lawsuits can do it, which is why the November midterms matter.

Are Trump dividend stocks a buy right now? This isn’t a buy or sell call, it’s a lens. Before buying, ask how much of the price is a Washington premium, how durable the policy behind it is, and whether the market is pricing any chance that support gets contested. A slow, undated catalyst rewards patience and defined risk, not a rushed bet.

Editor’s Note: What ever happened to the AI stock boom? Even AI darlings like Nvidia have essentially gone nowhere since summer 2025. Our friend and colleague at InvestorPlace, Louis Navellier, may have the answer. According to Louis, the AI industry is quietly “staging” ahead of the next great AI breakthrough… a new class of AI he calls “Superintelligence… but better.” How will it trigger a $100 trillion reset of the AI markets. How will the launch of this tech send some stocks to zero, and others soaring? And why does Louis say: Don’t buy or sell an AI stock in 2026 until you see what’s coming next? Go here for the full story (and Louis’ #1 pick).