Nuclear stocks that make small modular reactors (SMRs) are attracting investor and analyst interest. SMRs are nuclear fission reactors that are smaller than conventional reactors. They can be built in a factory and then transported to a site.
Although NuScale Power (SMR +15.26%) holds a regulatory lead as the first SMR company to obtain design certification from the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Wall Street analysts consistently assign a higher premium and more bullish outlook to Oklo (OKLO +4.94%), which also makes SMRs.
The average price target for NuScale is $12.63, just 30% above its share price as of Sept. 7. Oklo, on the other hand, has an average price target of $79.88, nearly twice its recent share price. While it's important to remember that price targets are just estimates, there are solid reasons to prefer Oklo over NuScale.
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Oklo's integrated model is an advantage Oklo has a build-own-operate revenue stream. Instead of just selling reactor hardware, Oklo plans to retain plant ownership and sell electricity directly to end users through long-term power purchase agreements. This approach generates predictable, recurring, high-margin software-like utility revenue for decades.
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NuScale sells SMRs to traditional public utilities. Analysts see this approach as exposing NuScale to supply chain friction; customer order cancellations, such as the high-profile Utah Associated Municipal Power Systems cancellation in 2023; and capital-intensive utility sales cycles.
Oklo is signing agreements with hyperscalers Oklo has positioned itself as a primary benefactor of the artificial intelligence (AI) boom by marketing directly to tech companies that are building data centers. Oklo has secured major pre-agreements with tech players and hyperscalers, including a recent deal among Oklo, Nvidia (NVDA -2.01%) and the Los Alamos National Laboratory to collaborate on the advancement of nuclear infrastructure, (AI)-enabled research, and nuclear fuel research and development at the lab in New Mexico.
Oklo's Aurora fast-fission design is engineered to run on recycled nuclear waste. By closing the fuel loop, analysts see long-term cost advantages and reduced fuel-supply chain risks compared with light-water reactor designs.
The company has a 1.2-gigawatt (GW) power agreement with Meta Platforms (META -0.53%) and a 12 GW pipeline deal with Switch.
NuScale, on the other hand, relies primarily on traditional regional power grids and municipal utilities to distribute power. Wall Street views direct tech partnerships as a faster, higher-demand route to monetization than waiting for slow-moving municipal power grids.
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Oklo has a stronger cash runway It's important to note that both stocks pose a risk, as neither has much revenue and both have been losing money for years. NuScale's shares are down more than 20% so far this year, while Oklo's shares are down more than 38%.
Oklo is on a more secure financial footing. In the second quarter, it had more than $1.6 billion in cash and cash equivalents, compared to only $84.3 million in total debt, providing a long runway before it needs to sell additional debt or issue more stock that dilutes existing shareholders.
NuScale, on the other hand, as of the second quarter, had only $766.5 million in cash and cash equivalents, with $824.4 million in total debt.
Oklo is taking advantage of its uniqueness Oklo has a key dual strategy, pairing proprietary reactor technology with secure uranium supplies.
This vertical integration acts as both a supply shield and a growth engine. As the nation races to fortify energy supply chains and meet surging power demand, businesses controlling both the technology and the fuel source hold a distinct strategic advantage.
Oklo also has a stronger financial situation, which makes it easier to grow without further diluting its stock.
On paper, Oklo (OKLO +4.94%) -- one of the most popular nuclear energy stocks on the market today -- has a very bright future.
Investment banks, consultants, and market analysts anticipated as much as $7 trillion in spending by 2030 to scale artificial intelligence (AI) data center infrastructure. Without this critical infrastructure, the AI industry will find it very difficult to grow as quickly as investors demand.
A large chunk of that $7 trillion will be spent on materials and labor. Much of it, however, will be directed toward scaling the energy systems needed to power the data centers themselves. "Incumbents can't meet demand for power," according to a report from consulting firm McKinsey & Co. The need for more power, the firm concludes, will trigger "one of the largest infrastructure build-outs in modern history."
Sam Altman, the chief executive officer of OpenAI, recognized this challenge more than a decade ago. In 2015, he became an early investor in Oklo. Oklo's small modular reactor (SMR) designs are ideal for the rising energy needs of the AI industry. The company has already secured deals with big tech companies like Meta Platforms (META -0.53%).
There's just one problem: Oklo still isn't approved by regulators to commercialize any of its SMR designs. So although some of its deals have binding financial components, Oklo won't be able to execute on its customer pipeline until it receives the proper approvals. Oklo was denied by regulators in 2022 and later resubmitted its application in 2025. The application has been moving smoothly through the approval process, but the exact date for a potential full approval remains unknown.
As a business, Oklo is incredibly exciting. It has impressive industry backing, an influential investor base, and good odds of full regulatory approval. When it comes to Oklo as an investment, however, the situation is less clear. Oklo's $8 billion valuation is nearly twice that of another SMR competitor, which is approaching a critical milestone that probably will push its valuation above Oklo's.
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This nuclear stock could have more near-term upside than Oklo NuScale Power (SMR +15.26%) is very similar to Oklo. Both companies are pursuing the development of SMR technology. Both companies have an impressive customer pipeline. And both companies are benefiting from AI's rapidly rising demand for power.
NuScale's market cap, however, currently hovers at about $4.6 billion after a steep decline. That's a near-50% discount to Oklo. And yet NuScale has received regulatory approval to commercialize its designs, while Oklo remains in the application process. Plus, NuScale's biggest project -- a 6-gigawatt deal with a major U.S. utility -- is nearing a critical milestone.
Up until now, customers have been reluctant to commit financially to SMR deals in any meaningful way. Oklo's deal with Meta, for example, included just $25 million in commitments. That's a drop in the bucket compared to what could become a multibillion-dollar project. And while Oklo has indicated that there may be additional binding agreements in the contract, it's not entirely clear how much Meta would be on the hook for should it decide to pull out.
Image source: Getty Images.
NuScale is arguably in a worse situation. Its biggest project, with the Tennessee Valley Authority, has little to no financial commitments. That has caused the market to price the stock at a healthy discount. That discount, however, could narrow quickly by the end of this year.
On last quarter's earnings call, NuScale's management stressed that ENTRA1, its financing partner, "continues to advance discussions with the Tennessee Valley Authority toward a definitive power purchase agreement." Chief Executive Officer John Hopkins clarified that "as soon as these PPAs (power purchase agreements) are definitized, we're ready to move." Later in the earnings announcement, NuScale's chief financial officer indicated that a PPA could be concluded by the end of 2026.
A PPA essentially binds a customer to buying power from a power generation facility. In short, it ensures that NuScale will be paid, clearing the way for construction to begin.
If a PPA is signed this year, NuScale would leapfrog over Oklo to become the most promising SMR developer in the U.S. It would have regulatory approval, a respectable customer pipeline, an improved capital position, and its first PPA to validate its commercialization strategy.
Small modular reactor stocks are surging against a red broad market, but with NuScale and Oklo still deep in the red for the year, the real question is whether this is a genuine bottom or just another bounce trap in…
A rotation back into nuclear names is running through the complex on Tuesday morning, and small modular reactor developers are leading the tape higher. The Global X Uranium ETF (NYSEARCA:URA) is up 4% as the sector proxy. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY) is down 0.3%, so the nuclear bid’s running against a soft broad market.
NuScale Power (NYSE:SMR) stock is up 13% to $10.94 in morning trading. However, NuScale stock remains down 24% year to date (YTD), a reminder of how deep the summer selloff cut into the SMR trade.
Oklo (NYSE:OKLO | OKLO Price Prediction) stock is climbing 7% to $43.99. Meanwhile, Oklo stock is still down 39% YTD, and enriched-uranium peer Centrus Energy (NYSEAMERICAN:LEU) stock is trading in sympathy as the fuel side of the same complex.
Rotation Back Into Nuclear Stocks No company-specific announcement from NuScale accounts for the move, and Oklo hasn’t put out fresh news either. Both developers were quiet overnight on customer contracts, NRC updates, and financing headlines. Money is coming back into a theme that was heavily sold through the summer (we mapped five ways to play the nuclear restart, utilities and fuel included, in a free report here), and it’s showing up across the group at once.
The uranium fuel side is bid too, with Centrus Energy stock trading higher alongside the reactor developers. Complex-wide participation on a session where the broad tape is red is the tell for a theme rotation. Short-covering into a thin book on stocks carrying big options gamma can add fuel to a directional move.
Options positioning backs the read. The full-chain put/call ratio on NuScale sits at 0.2, and Oklo runs at 0.29, both light on downside hedging relative to call demand. Retail chatter on Oklo also skewed bullish in early September, with sentiment on the “Oklo Advantage” thread reaching a very bullish 82 score on one boundary.
AI Power Demand Still Anchors the Bull Case NuScale’s structural case rests on being the only U.S. NRC design-certified SMR developer, and management has pointed to a supply chain of more than 60 specialized partners with over 30 agreements executed. Commercialization partner ENTRA1 is advancing discussions with TVA toward a definitive power purchase agreement that could become the largest U.S. nuclear deployment program to date. The company ended Q2 2026 with $1.9 billion in cash and investments, which buys the company time to convert that pipeline into signed offtake.
Oklo’s pitch is a customer pipeline of roughly 14 GW, anchored by a 12 GW Switch master power agreement and a 500 MW Equinix LOI with a $25 million pre-payment. The company is targeting first commercial power late 2027 to early 2028 at Idaho National Laboratory, with the Aurora powerhouse design scaled from 50 MW to up to 75 MW to meet data-center demand. Radioisotope revenue from the Atomic Alchemy acquisition could arrive as early as 2026, giving the story an earlier revenue on-ramp than the reactor timeline alone would imply.
Session Scorecard vs. Year to Date The one-day rebound looks striking, yet the YTD picture keeps the trade grounded. Both NuScale stock and Oklo stock remain deeply negative for 2026 even after Tuesday’s push higher, and today’s move only chips away at the summer damage.
Ticker Session Move YTD SMR +13% -24% OKLO +7% -39% URA +4% +12% A stock recovering from a heavily sold position can rise hard for days without changing where it stands for the year. The useful measure is the gap that’s left: 24% for NuScale stock and 39% for Oklo stock to recover before either turns green on the year. Centrus, which has actual revenue and a $4.5 billion total backlog, anchors the fuel side of the complex and often leads sentiment shifts in SWU pricing, which matters when trying to gauge whether the theme’s fundamentals are firming.
What to Watch Next The cleanest evidence that this bounce means more than a short squeeze would be URA holding its gain for several sessions in a row. A single day of green in a beaten-down theme doesn’t settle the exhaustion question, and both stocks carry the volatility profile to give the move back as fast as they built it. Momentum names in this corner often print sharp two- or three-day rebounds inside larger downtrends, so the follow-through window is what separates a real bottom from a bounce.
Investors sizing their positions in NuScale stock or Oklo stock can treat this as a tradeable bounce with tight risk. You may choose to leave room to add if the URA ETF follows through into Wednesday and Thursday, while keeping your exposure sensible as nuclear stocks rebuild a base. In addition, traders can watch for confirmation in Centrus stock as well, since fuel-side strength tends to precede sustained reactor-developer runs.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Hyperscalers are desperate for firm, carbon-free power and three nuclear stocks sit directly in their crosshairs, but only one of them has actual cash flow today, and the gap between the three tells you everything about the risk you are…
Small modular reactors sit at the intersection of the two biggest stories in power right now: hyperscalers scrambling for firm, carbon-free baseload, and a US grid that has not built meaningful new nuclear capacity in a generation. The demand pressure is quantifiable. The EIA’s High Electricity Demand case projects data center server energy use will grow to 818 billion kilowatthours in 2050, more than 16 times the 2020 level, and Oklo’s own filings cite the Goldman Sachs projection of roughly 165% growth in AI-driven data center power demand by 2030. That is the tailwind. The catch, and the reason to read the following names very differently, is that only one of the three has cash flow today.
Talen Energy: Cash Flow, Powered Land, and a PJM Tailwind Talen Energy (NASDAQ:TLN | TLN Price Prediction) is the operating business in this roster. It owns the Susquehanna nuclear station plus an expanded gas fleet after the June 15, 2026 close of the Cornerstone Acquisition, which added roughly 2.6 GW at Waterford, Darby, and Lawrenceburg. This is a merchant independent power producer with real megawatt-hours going out the door and real dollars coming back.
The Q2 2026 numbers make the distinction from the SMR developers unmissable. Revenue was $747 million, up 64.5% year over year, adjusted EBITDA was $374 million versus $90 million a year earlier, and adjusted free cash flow was $212 million versus a $78 million outflow. GAAP EPS printed negative $2.00 versus a $3.39 estimate, missing expectations largely because of $211 million in unrealized derivative losses and interest expense jumping to $214 million from $62 million on $4 billion of new senior unsecured notes issued for Cornerstone. Management raised full-year guidance to adjusted EBITDA of $2.025 billion to $2.225 billion and adjusted free cash flow of $1.20 billion to $1.35 billion.
The PJM setup is the real story. Talen cleared over 10 GW in the 2028/2029 PJM Base Residual Auction at $325.00/MWd. On the Q2 call, President Terry Nutt said 70% of PJM’s 10 highest peak load days since the inception of the modern PJM occurred over the last 15 months, and CEO Mac McFarland noted that WestHub Sparks increased by nearly 50% since last year with forward wholesale prices for capacity and energy approaching or exceeding the $80 per megawatt-hour range previously discussed for long-term hyperscaler PPAs. The existing AWS contract at Susquehanna is nearly two gigawatts ramping through 2030, with management guiding long-term contracted margin from 10% to 35% as the campus builds out.
Bull case: Talen has approximately four gigawatts of data center sites with utility load commitments and more than two gigawatts of new-build capacity projects backed with interconnection queue positions. Management expects approximately $4 billion of adjusted free cash flow between the balance of 2026 and the end of 2028, with at least 70% returned to shareholders through buybacks. The stock is down 19.42% year to date, and analyst coverage is thin: only 6 EPS analysts contribute to both the 2026 and 2027 fiscal year estimates, with the 2027 EPS estimate averaging 30.7681 across a 26.06 to 37.06 range. That is the “not fully priced” setup: a merchant generator whose forward cash flow curve is being written in real time by hyperscaler contracting, with limited sell-side coverage. McFarland put it plainly: “This is like one of the greatest opportunities we’ve seen in this sector in a long time.”
Risk: Only 30% of 2028 generation is hedged, leverage is elevated after the $4 billion in new debt for Cornerstone (net debt roughly $9.5 billion), and GAAP earnings will remain volatile from derivative marks.
NuScale Power: Design Certified, But Still Pre-Revenue and Speculative Speculative flag, unmissable: NuScale Power (NYSE:SMR) is an early-stage SMR developer with essentially no revenue today. It carries materially higher risk than Talen and behaves like a small, high-variance position. In Q2 2026, revenue collapsed to $75,000, down 99.1% year over year from $8.05 million, because the Fluor FEED Phase 2 engineering services for the RoPower project ended in late 2025 with no replacement. Operating loss was $64.0 million, and net loss attributable to Class A holders was $47.54 million. Analysts expect the losses to continue: the consensus EPS for fiscal 2026 is negative 0.4826 and for fiscal 2027 is negative 0.7237.
The bull case rests on regulatory position and readiness. NuScale is the only US NRC design-certified SMR, with Standard Design Approval received May 2025, and CEO John Hopkins framed the design certification as “the global gold standard for nuclear safety.” On the Q2 call, Hopkins said “We’ve already negotiated supplier agreements with more than half of our 60-plus supplier relationships” and “The detailed design for the critical path components of our modules, the systems that govern schedule and cost, is mature.” The company closed the quarter with approximately $1.9 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and investments, supported by roughly $984.48 million in net equity proceeds raised in the first half of 2026.
The commercial catalyst is the TVA program, which remains a non-binding discussion, not a signed agreement. Management stated that “Interwent Energy, our strategic partner, continues to advance discussions with the Tennessee Valley Authority toward a definitive power purchase agreement for potentially the largest nuclear power deployment program in U.S. history.” Hopkins added: “The market’s waiting for definitive agreements, and once they’re in place, we’re ready to move.”
Bull case: NuScale is the closest US SMR developer to commercial deployment, with the regulatory box checked and a supply chain largely under contract. If TVA converts to a signed PPA, the deployment scale is potentially transformative.
Risk: The list is long and disclosed in the filings: no established SMR market, unproven cost-competitiveness, dependence on the ENTRA1 partnership, need for additional funding, Fluor’s full exit of its stake, and a securities-fraud class action referenced in the Q1 recap. The stock is down 32.53% year to date and down 74.33% over the past year. Investors are paying for a call option on TVA converting.
Oklo: First Criticality Achieved, Commercial Power Still Ahead Speculative flag, unmissable: Oklo (NYSE:OKLO) is a pre-revenue advanced fission developer. Fiscal 2024 revenue was $0 with a net loss of $73.62 million. Analysts model fiscal 2026 revenue averaging just $2.24 million across 17 analysts, with a low estimate of $0, and fiscal 2026 EPS at negative 0.9396. This is a materially higher-risk name than Talen.
What changed in Q2 2026 is the execution story. Oklo’s Groves isotope reactor reached first criticality, and CEO Jake DeWitte said “Based on our internal reviews, Groves represents the fastest transition that we are aware of from greenfield to criticality for a full scale, privately funded and privately cited reactor in history”, with substantial construction completed in 229 days. On the Aurora INL commercial power project, management reiterated the planned 2028 startup and confirmed DOE approval of the Preliminary Documented Safety Analysis during the quarter. Oklo also entered an MOU with Kiewit covering engineering, procurement, construction, and execution planning for the initial phase of the 1.2 gigawatt Ohio Power Campus.
The customer pipeline is where the “signed versus non-binding” distinction matters most. Oklo’s roughly 14 GW pipeline is anchored by a 12 GW master power agreement with Switch (delivery by 2044), plus a non-binding LOI with Equinix for up to 500 MW with $25 million pre-payment, a non-binding LOI with Prometheus Hyperscale for 100 MW, and a non-binding LOI with Diamondback Energy for 50 MW. These are commitments to negotiate rather than binding PPAs. The Centris HALU fuel arrangement is also a letter of intent anticipating a definitive agreement covering multiple years of initial core and reload needs for up to five Aurora powerhouses, with deliveries beginning in 2029.
Balance sheet: $3 billion in cash and marketable securities at quarter end, including $1.9 billion of capital generated from ATM programs in 2026. Updated 2026 guidance calls for cash used in operating activities of $120 million to $150 million and cash used for property, plant, and equipment of $400 million to $500 million.
Bull case: Oklo now has an operating reactor to point to. It has a DOE site use permit at Idaho National Laboratory and secured fuel for the first deployment, and it is building a vertically integrated platform spanning power, fuel, and isotopes.
Risk: No commercial power project is operating, most customer commitments are non-binding, the NRC combined license application timeline is not fully de-risked, and additional financing will be needed to build plants. The stock is down 44.93% year to date and down 46.30% over the past year, and consensus EPS estimates have been revised sharply lower over 30 days, with the 2026 average moving from negative 0.6955 to negative 0.9396.
How to Think About the Three Together The through-line is that AI data center load is real and firm baseload power is scarce, but the three names in this piece monetize that shortage on completely different clocks. Talen books revenue and free cash flow now, with capacity auctions and hyperscaler contracts widening spreads through 2028. NuScale and Oklo are option-like exposures on regulatory conversion, customer conversion from LOI to PPA, and construction execution that ends in 2028 at the earliest. The three names occupy different roles: TLN is the operating, cash-flow-generating position, while SMR and OKLO are high-variance, option-like exposures on regulatory and commercial conversion (we mapped five ways to play the nuclear restart, utilities and fuel suppliers included, in a free report you can grab here). Keep an eye on the stock reactions when the next PJM auction clears, when TVA converts (or does not), and when Aurora INL reaches its next DOE gate.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
The AI industry is in desperate need of more energy -- quickly.
"Tech companies in the AI race need power, and lots of it," warns The Wall Street Journal. "They aren't waiting around for the archaic U.S. power grid to catch up."
Nuclear energy can help meet the power needs of AI companies over the long term. Nuclear energy provides a large amount of reliable baseload power with minimal carbon emissions. The problem is that nuclear power plants can take a decade or more to build, with some projects requiring more than $1 billion in capital to complete.
The AI industry needs more energy faster than what conventional nuclear power plants can deliver. That's where SMRs come in. These miniature nuclear power plants can be built in a fraction of the time, potentially just two or three years.
Up-front costs are much lower, though all-in operating costs may be higher on a per-megawatt basis than conventionally sized facilities. SMRs can also be expanded over time, with a small-enough footprint to be located directly next to data center infrastructure.
Two pure-play SMR stocks are NuScale Power (SMR -0.51%) and Oklo (OKLO +3.59%). The market cap gap between the two companies is massive. NuScale trades at a $4 billion valuation, while Oklo is valued at nearly $40 billion.
Why the gap, and which SMR stock should investors prefer? The answers to these questions are surprisingly simple.
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Both NuScale and Oklo are pursuing SMR developments. NuScale has been approved by regulators to build a system in the U.S., but Oklo has not. In fact, Oklo's application was denied in 2022. The company took until 2025 to resubmit its application.
Oklo was also on a list of approved suppliers during a recent U.S. military request for SMR systems. Five companies were ultimately selected. Oklo was not one of them.
From this perspective, it may seem strange that Oklo trades at a 900% premium to NuScale Power. Digging deeper, however, Oklo's strengths begin to emerge.
Both NuScale and Oklo have impressive customer pipelines. NuScale's project pipeline sits between 6 and 8 gigawatts. Oklo's pipeline, meanwhile, totals roughly 18 gigawatts. Note also that NuScale's customer pipeline is largely composed of a single customer, whereas Oklo has at least six sizable customers, greatly reducing the risk of a single project's failure.
Image source: Getty Images.
Why has Oklo outcompeted NuScale for customers despite not yet having regulatory approval to build an SMR system? The answer likely lies in Oklo's investor base and its go-to-market strategy.
Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, was an early investor in Oklo. He served as the company's chairman for many years. Having the leader of one of the world's largest AI companies directly invested in Oklo's future provides strong social validation.
"I'm all-in on energy. I think there's urgent demand for tons and tons of cheap, safe, clean energy at scale," Altman told CNBC as Oklo prepared to go public in 2023. "I don't see a way for us to get there without nuclear."
Whereas NuScale is focused on grid-scale deployments, Oklo has pursued deals directly with data center companies. Earlier this year, for example, it agreed to a 1.2-gigawatt deal with Meta Platforms.
Do Oklo's social validation and direct-sales strategy warrant a 900% premium? Right now, NuScale stock seems to offer more upside potential, given its relatively diminutive valuation.
Valuation aside, Oklo looks better positioned to succeed long term. If deep-pocketed data center companies are driving the surge in energy demand, marketing directly to these businesses through a powerful industry influencer seems like a winning strategy.
The artificial intelligence (AI) boom is already well underway. Globally, $7 trillion is projected to be spent over the next few years alone on scaling data center infrastructure. All those data centers will need power -- lots of it. That's where nuclear energy can play a key role.
Many nuclear energy stocks are worth consideration. Investors looking to bet on rising energy demand from AI companies, however, may be best off narrowing their focus to SMR stocks.
Image source: Getty Images.
SMR stocks -- which specialize in small modular reactors -- are attractive for several reasons. These miniature nuclear power plants are faster, cheaper, and safer to deploy than conventional nuclear plants, at least on paper. Only two SMR systems are currently commercially active globally, though more than 80 are in some stage of development.
If you're looking for pure-play SMR stocks, there are two clear options with varying go-to-market strategies.
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These nuclear power stocks specialize in SMRs NuScale Power (SMR +1.99%) is the only company in the U.S. approved by regulators to build an SMR system. The biggest project in its pipeline is a 6-gigawatt system for the Tennessee Valley Authority, a major southeastern U.S. utility provider.
NuScale is focused on meeting AI's energy needs by delivering power to grid suppliers in a traditional way. Oklo (OKLO +0.81%), meanwhile, is taking a more direct approach, pitching its systems directly to AI companies. It already has some deals signed with data center companies. But like NuScale, none of these systems have financial commitments yet.
NuScale's $4 billion market cap is arguably more attractive than Oklo's $40 billion valuation. But the choice ultimately comes down to how investors assess their go-to market approaches. If a traditional grid approach works, NuScale is the better pick. If marketing directly to AI companies is superior, Oklo clearly has the upper hand.
Consider giving both a closer look to see if any other factor might help tip the scales.
Ryan Vanzo has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends NuScale Power. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, but may initiate a beneficial Long position through a purchase of the stock, or the purchase of call options or similar derivatives in OKLO over the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.
Nuclear power may be an answer to the energy bottlenecks created by artificial intelligence (AI), but that's not reflected in the stock prices of Oklo (OKLO +0.81%) or NuScale Power (SMR +1.99%).
As of this writing, shares of Oklo have dipped 45% so far in 2026, while NuScale's stock price is down 37%. Neither company has commercial operations, so investing in either is about the promise of what could be offered through the deployment of their small modular reactors (SMRs).
Let's assess that promise -- and whether or not investors should jump in.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
The promise of SMR technology SMRs offer several benefits over traditional nuclear reactors, including placement flexibility, greater scalability, and enhanced safety, according to the Department of Energy.
It is currently, however, a small market, as companies like Oklo and NuScale are working on getting those reactors up and running. In 2025, the global SMR market was valued at just $6.5 billion, according to Grand View Research. But as energy needs from data centers continue to grow, and SMRs become commercialized, the market size can easily expand.
According to research from The Motley Fool:
U.S. data centers consumed an estimated 177 to 192 terawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity in 2024 -- roughly 4% to 5% of all U.S. electricity -- and could consume 9% to 17% by 2030 under scenarios developed by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI).
This is a classic find-a-problem (energy needs), offer-a-solution (nuclear power) setup; it's just a matter of when either company meets those AI energy needs.
The better investment Without commercial operations, what people are essentially paying for is the future potential of both companies, which is more suited for aggressive investors. That said, between the two, I would rather own Oklo.
It stands out because of the vertically integrated setup it's establishing, giving it a unique edge in the growing nuclear energy sector. Instead of specializing in one part of the process, Oklo plans to do everything from fuel fabrication to selling power and heat to recycling fuel, creating a loop for consistent power generation.
Even though it's not yet operational, Oklo has a deal with Meta Platforms under which the tech giant can prepay for power and provide funding for its reactor project in Ohio. The reactor is expected to be running by 2030 and provide its full power target by 2034. As of the end of the second quarter of 2026, Oklo has $3 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities to fund its endeavors.
In comparison, NuScale acts more as an equipment and technology provider. While that limits some of the risks and barriers involved with the vertically integrated model Oklo is following, it can also reduce revenue opportunities, as Oklo can generate more reliable revenue by selling power and heat directly.
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In addition, I'd give Oklo an edge with the deal already established with Meta Platforms, as it could open many doors if it proves successful. Finally, Oklo also has more cash at its disposal ($3 billion), as NuScale has $1.9 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and investments.
What's ahead for Oklo? For Oklo, the stock price is approaching its 52-week low of $36.61. Some investors may think Oklo has been oversold if it gets close to $36 and step in to buy shares. It could also just as easily trigger more selling and send the stock price lower, as other investors may not see any catalysts on the horizon to reverse the losses. Either way, the near-term results are likely to be a bit choppy.
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Looking a bit further out, however, analysts collectively have a favorable median one-year price target for Oklo. Of the 21 analysts covering the stock, the median one-year price target is $80, according to CNN. From the Aug. 31 closing price of $40.57, hitting that $80 price target would represent a gain of about 97%.
To illustrate what an investment would look like if it hit that target, investing $5,000 in Oklo at $40.57 would yield a little more than 123 shares with fractional investing. If it were to reach $80 per share, that $5,000 investment would be worth approximately $9,859. While that's not a guarantee of what will happen, price targets can help gauge sentiment about a stock and help set a risk-to-reward framework.
For Oklo, that framework looks appealing, which could warrant a small stake for those comfortable with the risks and challenges the nuclear energy company still faces.
Key Takeaways Holtec filed for an IPO, with share count, price range and final valuation still undisclosed.Holtec's IPO appeal may hinge on pricing as SMR projects require approvals, funding and construction.Holtec posted $165.3M in Q1 2026 revenues and $17.8M in net income ahead of its planned listing. Holtec Nuclear Corporation is preparing to enter the public market after filing for an initial public offering with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The company plans to list its Class A shares on Nasdaq and Nasdaq Texas under the ticker HNUC. However, important details are still missing, including the number of shares, expected price range and final valuation. Earlier reports suggested that Holtec could seek a valuation of about $10 billion, but that figure has not been officially confirmed.
What makes the planned IPO notable is that Holtec already has an operating business, unlike many nuclear companies that are still waiting to generate meaningful revenues. Holtec operates an established nuclear business that is already generating revenues and profits. The company is also pursuing growth through small modular reactors, or SMRs, a key part of its longer-term expansion strategy. In the first quarter of 2026, Holtec generated $165.3 million in revenues and $17.8 million in net income. This gives investors something more concrete to evaluate before buying the shares. At the same time, much of the excitement surrounding the IPO is likely to come from expectations that Holtec can significantly expand its SMR business.
The IPO therefore comes down largely to pricing and investor expectations. Interest in nuclear power has grown as data centers and artificial intelligence increase electricity demand, creating a supportive backdrop for nuclear-related investments. However, SMR projects still require lengthy regulatory approvals, construction and substantial funding before producing meaningful returns. If Holtec prices the offering reasonably, its existing revenue base could appeal to investors seeking nuclear exposure. A rich valuation, however, could leave the stock heavily dependent on SMR growth that may take years to materialize.
Holtec’s planned IPO could also widen the choices available to investors seeking exposure to advanced nuclear power. Once listed, Holtec would enter a public market that already includes reactor developers such as Oklo Inc. (OKLO - Free Report) and NuScale Power Corporation (SMR - Free Report) . However, the companies are approaching the nuclear opportunity differently. Holtec combines an established nuclear-services business with its developing SMR-300 program, while OKLO and NuScale remain more closely tied to the future commercial deployment of their advanced reactor technologies.
Other Publicly Traded Advanced Nuclear Companies
OKLO is developing its Aurora nuclear powerhouses while building capabilities around fuel and nuclear materials. Its first Aurora project at Idaho National Laboratory has received an important preliminary safety approval from the U.S. Department of Energy, while site construction, procurement and system integration are progressing. OKLO is also planning a 1.2-gigawatt clean-energy campus in Ohio, where it is working with Kiewit on engineering, procurement and construction planning. Separately, its Groves isotope facility reached first criticality in August 2026, giving the company practical experience in building and starting up a nuclear facility.
Meanwhile, NuScale Power remains the only SMR developer with U.S. NRC design certification and has continued preparing its technology for commercial deployment. Its partner ENTRA1 Energy is advancing discussions with the Tennessee Valley Authority toward a power purchase agreement for a potentially large U.S. nuclear deployment. NuScale is also working with Nuclearelectrica and RoPower on a Romanian project expected to use six NuScale Power Modules. These projects keep the Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) company positioned among the more advanced commercial SMR developers. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Holtec Nuclear Corporation recently filed for an initial public offering, planning to list on the Nasdaq stock exchange under the ticker HNUC. Here's why that IPO should worry Oklo (OKLO -0.39%) investors. Holtec has something Oklo lacks: revenue and earnings. That should make it a more appealing alternative for investors seeking exposure to the nuclear renaissance in the U.S.
Here's a look at this upcoming nuclear energy stock and how it differs from investing in Oklo.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
Introducing Holtec Nuclear Unlike Oklo, Holtec isn't a pre-commercial nuclear start-up. It has been around since 1986 and currently supplies nuclear equipment, manages spent nuclear fuel, and, like Oklo, develops small modular reactors (SMRs). Its core business of nuclear fuel and waste management funds its current operations. The company generated $165 million of revenue and $17.8 million of net income during the first three months of this year. While that was down from $177.7 million in revenue and $25.4 million in net income in the prior-year period, it's an already-functioning commercial business that supports its growth initiatives, including its SMR program.
Holtec is leading the restart of the 800-megawatt Palisades nuclear plant in Michigan, which shut down in 2022 after 50 years of operation. Additionally, it plans to build two SMR-300s at that site. It has already received $400 million from the U.S. Department of Energy to support its development plans at this site. Holtec aims to use its IPO proceeds to further its SMR program, expand its manufacturing capacity, and support its other growth initiatives. It has several planned SMR sites beyond Palisades, including at the decommissioned Oyster Creek nuclear power plant in New Jersey, where it plans to deploy four SMR-300s.
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Why Holtec's IPO should worry Oklo investors Now let's contrast Holtec's business model with Oklo. The SMR start-up generated a mere $1.2 million in revenue during the second quarter. It didn't record any revenue during the first quarter or during the first six months of last year. Meanwhile, it has been piling up losses. Its net loss totaled $48.5 million in the second quarter and $81.6 million year-to-date. Oklo is a long way from generating meaningful revenue, as it likely won't book its first commercial power revenue before 2028.
Oklo is still in the early stages of building a scalable, vertically integrated nuclear platform from the ground up, including power, fuel, and isotopes. That's expensive. It spent $126.9 million on capex in the first half of this year and an additional $25.7 million on acquisitions to expand its capabilities. That's on top of the $65.5 million in cash it used in operating activities. The company does have some breathing room, as it ended the second quarter with $3 billion of cash and marketable securities after issuing $1.9 billion of stock through its at-the-market program. However, continued cash burn is something Oklo investors will need to monitor until it begins generating meaningful revenue to fund its operations and expansion initiatives.
New competition for investors Holtec's upcoming IPO doesn't diminish the investment thesis for Oklo. The SMR start-up is building an integrated platform from the ground up, which has high risks but high reward potential. However, it will add a new, lower-risk option for investors looking to play the nuclear renaissance. As a result, it could take a lot longer for Oklo's stock to recover from the more than 75% plunge from its peak.
The nuclear energy market fizzled out for roughly a decade after the 2011 Fukushima disaster. But over the past few years, the market's demand for nuclear power rose again -- driven by the expansion of the cloud, AI, and industrial automation markets. New decarbonization initiatives and safer nuclear technologies also drove more countries to restart their nuclear programs.
That shift is generating strong tailwinds for producers of small modular reactors (SMRs). Many top tech companies -- including Alphabet's (GOOG -1.00%) (GOOGL -1.22%) Google, Amazon (AMZN -2.09%), and Oracle (ORCL -5.27%) -- have signed framework, financing, and deployment deals to expand their SMR capacity over the next two decades.
Image source: Getty Images.
What are SMRs? SMRs are compact nuclear reactors designed to produce up to 300 MWe per unit. By comparison, conventional nuclear power plants typically generate more than 1,000 MWe.
SMRs are much smaller than conventional reactors, and they're prefabricated in factories. Their modular design enables them to be connected to additional SMRs in larger plants. That approach reduces the time and costs for constructing a custom nuclear power plant. Their smaller design also allows them to be deployed in remote areas with challenging terrain.
Key companies to watch in the SMR space include NuScale (SMR -0.86%), Oklo (OKLO -4.86%), and GE Vernova (GEV -0.83%). These companies all produce different types of SMRs (and even smaller microreactors). Still, they'll all benefit from the surging power demands of the cloud infrastructure and AI markets over the next few decades.
Leo Sun has positions in Amazon. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Amazon, GE Vernova, and Oracle. The Motley Fool recommends NuScale Power. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Key Takeaways PJM removed Oklo's 750-MW Ohio project from its current grid-connection review over application issues.Oklo says losing its current review position could delay the project at least 14 months and raise costs.FERC could restore Oklo's place in PJM's process; otherwise, a later review cycle may add uncertainty. Oklo Inc. (OKLO - Free Report) is facing a new hurdle for its planned Ohio energy project after PJM Interconnection, the regional organization that manages the power grid across parts of the eastern United States, removed the project from its current grid-connection review process. The 750-megawatt project combines 150 MW of advanced nuclear power, 300 MW of fuel cells and 300 MW of natural gas generation. PJM cited several shortcomings in OKLO’s application, including technical questions about how the project would perform during sudden grid-voltage problems.
The bigger concern for OKLO is not that the project will be canceled, but that it could face a lengthy delay. OKLO believes the issues raised by PJM can be fixed and has challenged how the grid operator handled the review. The company estimates that losing its current place in PJM’s study process could delay the project by at least 14 months and push up development costs. This matters because power projects generally must secure approval to connect to the regional electricity grid before commencing supply. OKLO had already been working on grid studies and transmission planning for its Ohio development.
For investors following advanced nuclear names such as NuScale Power (SMR - Free Report) and NANO Nuclear Energy (NNE - Free Report) , the dispute also highlights an important point: developing a reactor is only part of the challenge; projects must also secure timely access to the electricity grid.
What It Could Mean for SMR and NNE
Although NuScale Power and NANO Nuclear are not involved in this dispute, OKLO’s experience shows why grid access can become an important execution issue for emerging nuclear projects.
OKLO has asked FERC, or the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission — the federal agency that oversees interstate electricity markets and transmission — to restore the project to its original place in PJM’s review process. If that happens, the impact on the development schedule could be limited. If not, OKLO may have to enter a later review cycle, creating greater uncertainty around the Ohio project’s timing and costs. The dispute therefore puts the timing of OKLO’s Ohio project at risk until the grid-connection issue is resolved.
Investors watching NuScale Power and NANO Nuclear may therefore increasingly consider grid-connection progress alongside licensing, construction and other project milestones.
The Zacks Rundown on OKLO
Shares of OKLO have lost 43.5% so far this year, underperforming the industry's essentially flat performance.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
OKLO currently has an average brokerage recommendation of 1.96 on a scale of 1 to 5 (Strong Buy to Strong Sell), calculated based on the actual recommendations (Buy, Hold, Sell, etc.) made by 23 brokerage firms.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
See how the Zacks Consensus Estimate for OKLO’s earnings has been revised over the past month.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The stock currently carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Nuclear power is going miniature. On Aug. 27, the U.S. Army approved $2.2 billion in funding for micro nuclear reactors. Five developers were selected, each of whom will deliver a microreactor to a U.S. Army site.
The move is part of the Janus Program, which was launched last October. "Executive Order 14299-Deploying Advanced Nuclear Reactor Technologies for National Security-was signed by President Donald Trump in May 2025 and aims for operation of an Army-regulated nuclear reactor at a domestic military installation no later than 30 September 2028," reports World Nuclear News.
The goal seemingly isn't just to power U.S. military sites with nuclear energy. Instead, it appears that military spending and the adoption of nuclear technology will be used to kick-start more civilian projects.
"We are seeking not just reactors capable of turning on for a brief demonstration, but rather systems able to deliver power with high-capacity factors for years of operation," a representative for the Army stressed. "The Janus Program will be a complete success when, and only when, we have assisted multiple nuclear companies in developing truly reliable and affordable nuclear microreactors which they can sell to other buyers beyond just the military."
U.S. regulators and many of the country's politicians are increasingly focused on advancing domestic use of nuclear power. The following two stocks are set to benefit.
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These stocks will benefit from rising interest in nuclear energyIf the U.S. military is focused on scaling microreactors, the most obvious investment opportunities are NuScale Power (SMR -0.21%) and Oklo Inc. (OKLO +1.07%).
Oklo was named a potential supplier to the Janus program, but was ultimately not selected. NuScale, meanwhile, does not appear as if it qualified for consideration.
Why, then, are these two stocks positioned to benefit from the U.S. military's efforts?
First, these are the only two pure-play stocks available to investors today focused exclusively on small modular reactors, or SMRs. Other publicly traded companies are also developing their own SMR designs. These companies, however, are mostly diversified industrial conglomerates, reducing an investor's ability to bet specifically on these miniature nuclear power plants.
Image source: Getty Images
Second, SMR adoption remains very much in its early innings. Only two SMR projects are currently in operation worldwide right now, one in China, the other in Russia. Research from leading investment banks including Bank of America, meanwhile, suggests that SMRs could become a $1 trillion global opportunity. That opportunity, however, will occur over several decades.
The faster excitement and interest grows for SMRs, the better off both Oklo and NuScale will be. Both companies have already established impressive customer pipelines, but few if any of those deals have firm financial commitments. Securing those commitments requires many things, but a clear signal from both regulators and government officials, plus real-world adoption by the U.S. military, would be a strong tailwind. And that's exactly what has unfolded in 2026.
Despite rising tailwinds, there is still a large amount of risk for SMR stocks. Oklo and NuScale remain unprofitable, and have largely relied on shareholder dilution to stay afloat. Both companies impressive customer pipelines, meanwhile, could reverse course at anytime. NuScale, for example, lost its biggest customer in 2023 as cost estimates ballooned.
Still, the news this week is undoubtedly positive for both SMR investors and nuclear energy investors in general.
Oklo (OKLO +1.10%) is targeting one of AI's biggest constraints: power. Its model combines strategic sites, nuclear generation, and infrastructure ownership, potentially giving the company a much larger opportunity than reactor sales alone. But turning that vision into durable value will depend on contracts, construction, commercial execution, and disciplined spending.
Stock prices used were the market prices of Aug. 20, 2026. The video was published on Aug. 30, 2026.
Rick Orford has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. Rick Orford is an affiliate of The Motley Fool and may be compensated for promoting its services. If you choose to subscribe through their link, they will earn some extra money that supports their channel. Their opinions remain their own and are unaffected by The Motley Fool.
"The race to scale AI has triggered one of the largest infrastructure build-outs in modern history," observes a recent report from global consultancy firm McKinsey & Co. "By our estimates, global spending on data centers could reach $7 trillion by 2030."
Public sentiment toward data centers, however, is increasingly negative. According to recent polling by Gallup, around 70% of Americans opposed building data centers in their local areas. Nearly half indicated that they were "strongly" opposed.
"Half of opponents mention data centers' excessive use of resources, including 18% each mentioning their use of water and energy," Gallup revealed. "Sixteen percent mention a related environmental concern of pollution, including noise pollution and air and water pollution."
Public backlash against data centers could spell trouble for nuclear energy stocks such as Oklo Inc. (OKLO -5.62%) and NuScale Power (SMR -4.62%). Nuclear energy is experiencing a renaissance driven by AI's rapidly rising need for power. Oklo and NuScale specialize in small modular reactors, or SMRs, which are particularly well-suited for speedy construction, with the ability to be co-located with data center infrastructure.
If data center construction faces scaling challenges due to public backlash, the case for SMRs weakens considerably. But there's another factor at play that could also hurt the case for SMRs.
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Natural gas and negative data center sentiment could slow SMR adoption Public backlash is worrisome for SMR stocks such as Oklo and NuScale because, if data center construction is slowed, the need to pay a premium for SMR technology falls. On a per-megawatt basis, SMRs are more expensive than traditional nuclear power plants. The advantage of an SMR, however, is that it can be built quickly.
Right now, the AI industry is desperate for new power sources. Many major players are willing to pay a premium to get new power generation capacity in place. They simply cannot wait a decade or longer to get a conventional nuclear power plant up and running. In theory, SMRs can be deployed in as little as two years.
If data center construction is slowed, AI companies may focus more on conventional power plants. For example, Alphabet, the parent company of Google, is planning to build three new conventional nuclear power plants in the U.S. capable of producing at least 600 megawatts each. The ability to disintermediate SMRs and focus more on long-term energy generation may especially be the case given renewed demand for a popular fossil fuel: natural gas.
Image source: Getty Images.
On Aug. 27, I detailed how Elon Musk is directing his company, Space Exploration Technologies, to invest more aggressively in natural gas supplies to fuel its rockets and power its compute infrastructure. SpaceX even plans to build its own natural gas pipeline.
"If AI companies can meet near-term demand with natural gas," I warned, "this fuel can then be a bridge until larger conventional nuclear power plants come online, likely at lower ongoing operating costs than a similarly sized SMR."
Investors should remember that only two SMR systems have ever been built worldwide. NuScale has yet to commercialize its designs, whereas Oklo doesn't even have approval from U.S. regulators to begin construction yet. It will likely be years until the U.S. has its first commercial small modular reactor online. Rising public backlash against data centers and increased interest in natural gas may push that timeline out even further.
It doesn't matter if artificial intelligence (AI) data centers have all the latest GPUs or high bandwidth memory. Without enough electricity, nothing stays online. Consider that a typical 100-megawatt data center can use as much power as about 80,000 U.S. homes. That makes bringing additional capacity online challenging, and two companies, Oklo (OKLO -5.62%) and X-Energy (XE -6.77%), are trying to address this problem.
The bet is straightforward: If artificial intelligence is going to keep growing, someone has to generate the electric power.
Image source: Getty Images.
Oklo and X-Energy are racing to put their first nuclear reactors into service. Granted, being first isn't a guaranteed long-term win, but it can secure a meaningful share of early demand, especially when power is the constraint. And that raises the question: Which company will actually produce nuclear power first? Let's get into it, starting with Oklo, a company that's already ahead of the game.
Oklo vs. X-Energy: The race to power AI data centers Oklo was selected for the Department of Energy's Reactor Pilot Program, which streamlines the testing and licensing for a specific reactor. That reactor is called the Aurora-INL powerhouse, located in Idaho Falls, Idaho, and the company broke ground on the site back in September 2025.
So when will the reactor go online?
On Oklo's second-quarter earnings call, Chief Financial Officer Richard Bealmear said that the company is "gaining greater visibility into opportunities to bring forward critical work that supports Aurora INL's planned 2028 start-up."
There's a pretty clear answer: 2028 is Oklo's target launch for Aurora-INL. That's two short years away.
And you know what makes this a particularly attractive opportunity? An estimated 2,441 data centers are expected to be online by December 2028. That means a huge, rapidly growing market could be waiting for Oklo.
Now, X-Energy isn't in the same boat. There hasn't been any groundbreaking ceremony yet. No construction. No site. So it's easy to dismiss it as the immediate loser in this matchup.
But unlike Oklo, X-Energy isn't signed under the Reactor Pilot Program; it's moving through the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's (NRC) standard licensing path. It's a slower process, sure, but the NRC's path leads to a full commercial operating license.
Translation? Oklo has a good shot at fully operating a single Aurora powerhouse first, but X-Energy could have a more straightforward path to building a fleet of commercial reactors.
Speed vs. scale: Which nuclear strategy wins? The nuclear strategy boils down to speed vs. scale, and in the context of data center power, that could make or break the story.
By 2028, thousands of data centers will be online, and you can't meet that enormous demand with a single reactor. And even after Oklo successfully starts operations at Aurora-INL, future commercial deployments will still require their own regulatory approvals.
On the other hand, X-Energy's path to obtaining a standard NRC license isn't a walk in the park. The company will have to jump through several hoops to prove its design is safe, secure the necessary approvals, and then build its first reactors.
Which one will win the AI nuclear race? Ultimately, Oklo appears better positioned to reach power generation first, while X-Energy may have the advantage in scaling that technology into a larger commercial fleet. Both of these offer their own set of advantages, but at the end of the day, we'll only know the answer once the dust settles.
So which is the better bet? For that, my money's on Oklo. Being first only matters because a working reactor in 2028 doesn't just boost market confidence; it also means generating real revenue and operational data that can accelerate Oklo's path to building a commercial fleet. X-Energy, on the other hand, is still working through approvals. Plus, in a market where thousands of data centers need power now, early customer relationships could prove more valuable than a streamlined licensing process.
Two of the most significant government-led nuclear energy programs are illustrating how quickly the advanced nuclear field is expanding. The Nuclear Energy Launch Pad added 13 reactor and fuel cycle technology projects to its development pipeline. The U.S. Army announced the long-awaited Project Janus to move five reactor development projects forward on military installations. The programs cover different stages of commercialization, together representing the broad nuclear renaissance.
Key Takeaways The U.S. Army selected five developers to deploy reactors at five military installations under Project Janus. The Nuclear Energy Launch Pad announced a second round of inclusions, bringing a total of 17 projects across the nuclear value chain into the research and development program. Companies including BWX Technologies (BWXT) and Lightbridge (LTBR) offer wider exposure to these leading initiatives. The U.S. Army Announces Project Janus The U.S. Army announced the five vendors selected for Project Janus to deploy microreactors at military installations across the country:
Antares Nuclear (private) BWX Technologies (BWXT) General Atomics (private) Radiant Industries (private) Westinghouse (49% owned by Cameco Corp. (CCJ)) These companies will be deploying microreactors on multiple military bases across the country to include locations in Kentucky, Texas, and New York. The U.S. Army will be awarding up to $2.2 billion across fiscal years 2027 through 2031, supplemented with private capital. The initial target is to have a reactor operating by September 2028, with projections for over 20 microreactors eventually being deployed across military installations.
Key Project Participants The focus of the program is to assist commercial reactor developers through their first-of-a-kind and second-of-a-kind reactor deployments. Solving the design issues of the initial reactor versions and reactor iterations allows for a lower-risk entry point for commercial customers for third-of-a-kind and following deployments.
The VettaFi Nuclear Renaissance Index (NUKZX) offers multiple points of exposure to companies participating in this program.
BWX Technologies (BWXT) is working under Project Janus to deploy a 20 megawatt (MW) gas-cooled reactor. The BWXT Advanced Nuclear Reactor, or BANR, will be deployed at Fort Campbell in Kentucky.
The company has long been working with the U.S. government to supply fuel fabrication services for nuclear programs under the Department of Defense. BWXT additionally manufactures and fabricates unique components and systems for submarines and aircraft carrier reactor plants.
See more: Critical Momentum: The Nuclear Renaissance Heats Up
Westinghouse — which is 49% owned by Cameco Corp. (CCJ) — was also selected to participate in Project Janus. Westinghouse will develop and deploy the eVinci microreactor in New York. The design recently hit a major milestone as the pilot version of the heat-pipe-cooled reactor reached initial criticality just last week.
See more: Profiling Reactor Technology: Westinghouse and Oklo
The Nuclear Energy Launch Pad Dramatically Expands Industry Development With Project Janus focused more on reactor developers iterating through their designs for commercialization, the Nuclear Energy Launch Pad (NELP) is more focused on broader research and development across the nuclear value chain. The project is led by the National Reactor Innovation Center at Idaho National Laboratory, but includes multiple sites across the country.
After initially announcing four private companies joining earlier this year, the list of projects was significantly expanded when thirteen new projects were recently added to the NELP. NUKZX constituents are included among the list of companies recently added and cover multiple segments of the nuclear industry.
Oklo (OKLO) is developing products and processes across multiple stages of the reactor development and nuclear fuel chain. Its advanced liquid sodium-cooled reactor designs could be involved in NELP projects, as could its used nuclear fuel reprocessing technology.
Advanced nuclear fuel developer Lightbridge (LTBR) was also announced as a new addition to the NELP. The company is developing an advanced metallic fuel intended to improve reactor performance in existing commercial plants, both in the U.S. and abroad.
NUKZX Offers Exposure Across the Entire Nuclear Value Chain Many of the companies attracting attention in the nuclear industry remain private. However, public companies are finding their way into some of the leading federal nuclear programs and also serve support roles for some of the leading private companies.
Companies in the nuclear supply chain offer significant exposure across the public and private reactor development space. Nuclear manufacturers such as BWX Technologies (BWXT) and Curtiss-Wright (CW) offer investors nuclear exposure without the risk of investing in pre-revenue startup firms.
Similar risk-conscious exposure can be had by investing in companies that own fleets of reactors, such as Constellation Energy (CEG), or construction companies like Fluor (FLR). NUKZX, which serves as the underlying index for the Range Nuclear Renaissance Index ETF (NUKZ), offers this potential exposure.
Related Research: Profiling Reactor Technology: Westinghouse and Oklo
DOE’s $17.5B Loan Boosts Nuclear Supply Chain
Critical Momentum: The Nuclear Renaissance Heats Up
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For more news, information, and analysis, visit the Nuclear Energy Content Hub.
vettafi.com is owned by VettaFi LLC (“VettaFi”). VettaFi is the index provider for NUKZ, for which it receives an index licensing fee. However, NUKZ is not issued, sponsored, endorsed, or sold by VettaFi. VettaFi has no obligation or liability in connection with the issuance, administration, marketing, or trading of NUKZ.
Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +0.45%) CEO Elon Musk just reminded investors that energy will be a big problem for the future of artificial intelligence.
When the space company reported its first earnings on Aug. 11, Musk spent several minutes stressing how much power the company will need to support its AI data infrastructure investments.
"[O]ur tentative target is to actually have 20 gigawatts at the power and cooling level online by the end of next year," Musk revealed. "Now I don't think we're going to achieve 20 gigawatts, but we want to have a series of projects that cumulatively come to 20 gigawatts by the end of next year. Some of them won't pan out exactly on time, but I would expect that we still probably have at the power plant level, something close to 15 gigawatts."
All of this is good news for Oklo Inc. (OKLO -5.62%): one of the most popular nuclear energy stocks on the market today.
Image source: Getty Images.
Oklo could become a major SpaceX customer Many AI investors are currently focused on the race to secure graphics processing units (GPUs). Musk, however, is equally concerned with getting new energy sources online to power the new compute infrastructure. "[O]ur goal is to have far more power, cooling, and electrical equipment than we have GPUs," he said.
SpaceX has invested heavily in bringing new power sources online, including everything from large utility-scale battery systems to conventional natural gas. Nuclear power, however, remains one of the most promising long-term solutions thanks to its low-carbon and reliable baseload characteristics.
Oklo is arguably leading the charge to power AI data centers with nuclear energy thanks to its small modular reactor (SMR) designs. SMRs are essentially miniature nuclear power plants that can be built more quickly and at a lower up-front cost than conventional nuclear power plants.
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Once scaled, SMR systems are expected to have deployment times of one to three years, though some aggressive estimates suggest it could be faster. Compare that to a decade or longer for a traditional nuclear power plant, and you quickly get an idea of how SMRs can better meet AI's near-term demands for energy.
Only two SMR systems are currently in commercial operation worldwide. Oklo doesn't even have U.S. regulatory approval to build an SMR system yet. Plus, competition is heavy, with deep-pocketed industrial conglomerates pursuing their own designs.
But Oklo's systems are designed specifically with data centers in mind, the same type of infrastructure SpaceX is racing to build. Oklo's systems are so tailored for data center adoption that Sam Altman, the CEO of OpenAI, was an early investor in the company. In fact, this is the biggest reason why SpaceX might not adopt Oklo's technology, as Elon Musk and Altman have frequently squabbled in public.
SpaceX might become Oklo's biggest customer. Or another AI company, such as Meta Platforms, which has already signed a deal with Oklo, could emerge as its most valuable partner. In either case, expect Oklo to play a key role in supplying power to the AI industry over the next decade and beyond.
Oklo has major AI partnerships, federal support, and nuclear technology aimed at powering data centers. What's missing from its story, however, is licensing, nuclear fuel, and a commercial reactor (and maybe a great villain, too).
Nuclear stocks are surging while the broad market barely stirs, but the announcements driving the move tell a very different story than the price action suggests.
The nuclear group is bouncing on Tuesday morning while the broad market barely moves. Uranium Energy (NYSEAMERICAN:UEC) stock is up 6% to $13.21, leading a coordinated advance across uranium miners and small modular reactor developers. Also participating, NuScale Power (NYSE:SMR) stock is rising 5% to $9.46 and Oklo (NYSE:OKLO | OKLO Price Prediction) stock is climbing 5% to $41.64.
Broader market strength isn’t the story here. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY) is up 0.2% to $765.33 Tuesday morning, so nuclear is running well ahead. Centrus Energy (NYSE:LEU) stock is up 2% to $181.44 despite no company announcement today, and the Global X Uranium ETF (NYSEARCA:URA) is participating alongside its holdings.
Oklo stock was down 45% year to date (YTD) through Monday’s close, NuScale was down 36%, and Centrus was down 27%. Uranium Energy was up 7% YTD, making it the outlier; evidently, today’s bounce is landing hardest on the deepest drawdowns.
Two Announcements, Thin Substance NuScale Power announced Tuesday morning that it is deploying nuclear-specific AI tools from private vendors Nuclearn and NPX for engineering and knowledge-management work, combining Nuclearn’s AtomAssist platform with NPX’s nuclear project experience. An initial proof of concept showed purpose-built nuclear AI could reduce the time required to find relevant information by as much as 80%. That release describes an internal engineering-workflow deployment, not a contract, an order, or a revenue event, and nothing about it changes NuScale’s revenue timeline for reactor deployment.
Facility Solutions Group separately announced Tuesday morning its role supporting Oklo on the Groves Isotope Test Reactor, which achieved first criticality on August 5. Groves became the fifth reactor authorized under the U.S. Department of Energy’s Reactor Pilot Program to reach a self-sustaining nuclear chain reaction, and the first under that program to do so on private land. That release came from a supplier rather than from Oklo itself and describes a milestone that already occurred earlier in the month — the market is reacting to retrospective, third-party publicity rather than a fresh company development.
Why the Move Reads as Positioning Price action is being led by names with no news at all. Uranium Energy made no announcement today and its stock is leading the group with a 6% gain to $13.21. Centrus Energy also made no announcement and is participating with a 2% advance to $181.44, the signature of a sector-wide positioning trade rather than a repricing on fundamentals.
Momentum indicators support that read. Uranium Energy’s 14-day relative strength index printed 29.9 on June 10, a formal oversold reading, and stayed below 40 through much of July before recovering into the 60s in August. Over the past month, UEC shares were up 32% heading into Tuesday, the shape of an oversold rebound working itself out over weeks.
NuScale Power holds the only U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission design certification in the small modular reactor industry, and its NuScale Power Module generates 77 megawatts of electricity, scalable to 924 megawatts across twelve modules. NuScale remains pre-revenue in its core reactor deployment business, and Oklo is likewise pre-revenue at commercial scale (we mapped out five ways to play the nuclear restart, utilities and fuel included, in a free report here). Neither name’s revenue trajectory changed today.
Position Sizing Into the Close Nothing announced today changes the revenue timeline for either company that reported news. A bounce off deeply negative year-to-date levels on supplier and vendor press releases is a positioning move that can reverse as quickly as it arrived. Investors should keep position sizes modest in a group where single-day moves of 5% and 6% are routine and where the underlying businesses have yet to generate meaningful cash flow.
Uranium Energy carries the more balanced exposure here given its uranium inventory, cash position, and positive YTD return. NuScale and Oklo remain story stocks tied to deployment timelines that stretch well into the back half of the decade. Traders can watch for whether today’s gains hold into the close and whether any headline from the Department of Energy or the Nuclear Regulatory Commission extends or unwinds this trade.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Shares of Oklo Inc. (NYSE:OKLO) are trading higher Tuesday afternoon as buying momentum accelerates across uranium miners and advanced nuclear technology developers.
Oklo stock is charging ahead with explosive momentum. Why are OKLO shares rallying? Ontario Threat To Cut Critical Minerals Triggers Broad Nuclear Sector RallyThe primary catalyst behind the sector-wide surge stems from mounting trade tensions following statements by Ontario Premier Doug Ford.
Ford warned that Canada should be ready to cut off U.S. access to high-grade nickel and refined uranium produced in Ontario, home to Cameco’s Blind River refinery, the world’s largest commercial uranium refining facility.
The threat of potential cross-border supply disruptions pushed uranium spot prices to a seven-month high, sparking a coordinated rally across the domestic nuclear supply chain.
Supply Chain Security Enhances Valuation for Domestic SMR DevelopersWhile raw material supply risks typically present operational headwinds, investors are viewing the trade row as a net positive for U.S.-based Small Modular Reactor developers.
Heightened fears over foreign energy and fuel dependencies are reinforcing the strategic importance of domestic nuclear deployments and accelerated federal support for domestic fuel pipelines.
The commodity-driven rally provides momentum for Oklo. Earlier in August, the company reported progress on its DOE-authorized test reactor milestones and maintains a well-capitalized balance sheet holding approximately $3 billion in cash and marketable securities.
OKLO Price Action: Oklo shares were up 11.41% at $44.22 at the time of publication on Tuesday, according to Benzinga Pro data.
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Oklo Inc. (OKLO -5.62%) isn't strictly an artificial intelligence stock. Instead, it's better classified as a nuclear energy stock. But the company's connection to the AI industry is clear and direct.
Over the next few years, $7 trillion is expected to be spent scaling data center infrastructure. The pace and scale of this global build-out are unprecedented. While efficiency gains will undoubtedly be gained, data centers are inherently energy-intensive. And the current grid isn't nearly big enough to support the AI industry's future needs. In response, massive amounts of new energy generation capacity will be needed.
In many ways, nuclear energy is an ideal solution. "As countries now race to secure the massive amounts of energy needed for leadership in artificial intelligence, nuclear energy is newly positioned to meet the moment," a report from Goldman Sachs declares. "After decades of underinvestment, a convergence of generational technological breakthroughs, intensifying geopolitical competition, and the need for clean, dense, reliable power is positioning nuclear energy for a renaissance."
Image source: Getty Images.
Analysts from Bank of America agree. "[N]uclear energy has, in many ways, been recently 'rediscovered' amid surging electricity demand," the bank concludes. "Compared with other energy sources, it offers reliable baseload power, a smaller carbon footprint, and a higher energy return on investment."
But here's the thing: Not all nuclear energy stocks will benefit. "[T]he next nuclear age will look different from the last," warns Goldman Sachs. While plenty of conventional power plants will be built, these facilities can often take a decade or more to build. That's too slow for the likes of the AI industry. The need for speed is causing renewed interest in a relatively untried form of nuclear: small modular reactors, or SMRs. SMRs are essentially miniature, scalable nuclear reactors. This is the exact technology that Oklo specializes in.
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AI investors should strongly consider Oklo stock Oklo isn't yet approved by regulators in the U.S. to build an SMR system. Oklo had previously submitted its designs to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, but was denied in 2022. Oklo has since reapplied and has been moving successfully through the process.
A lack of approval hasn't stopped customers from signing deals with Oklo. Meta Platforms, for example, agreed to have Oklo build a 1.2 gigawatt SMR system in Ohio, though Meta has also signed deals with competing developers. The absence of a deal with OpenAI is somewhat of a surprise, given that Sam Altman, OpenAI's CEO, invested early in Oklo and served as its Chairman for a handful of years. Regardless, Oklo has garnered social validation from both industry insiders and major AI companies.
What I like most about Oklo's approach is that it's pitching its products directly to data center businesses. Other SMR competitors, for comparison, are marketing their systems to utilities, which would then deliver that power over the grid to data centers in a conventional manner. This strategy may also work. But the rapid growth in electricity demand isn't stemming from grid users in general; AI companies are by far the biggest culprit. So why not market directly to them, especially given their deep budgets and urgency, not to mention the unique ability of SMRs to be colocated with data center infrastructure?
Oklo will remain a speculative stock until it secures regulatory approvals and demonstrates it can translate its designs into real-world applications with proven costs. But the business model is undoubtedly exciting with huge long-term opportunities.
Recent comments from Elon Musk, the CEO of Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +0.45%), may inadvertently help the stock price of Oklo (OKLO -5.62%), a nuclear energy developer that doesn't appear to have any direct connection to space or AI -- at least at first glance.
During SpaceX's first investor call on Aug. 11, Musk stressed to investors how much energy the company will need to scale its AI compute infrastructure.
"[O]ur tentative target is to actually have 20 gigawatts at the power and cooling level online by the end of next year," Musk revealed. "Now I don't think we're going to achieve 20 gigawatts, but we want to have a series of projects that cumulatively come to 20 gigawatts by the end of next year. Some of them won't pan out exactly on time, but I would expect that we still probably have at the power plant level, something close to 15 gigawatts. So, assuming that maybe one-fourth of the projects take longer than expected."
For comparison, New York City consumes roughly 10 gigawatts of power at peak energy demand during a summer heat wave. SpaceX, therefore, expects to soon need more power on a daily basis than the largest city in America.
Massive amounts of new energy will be needed to power an unprecedented global expansion of data infrastructure over the coming decades. With a nuclear energy system designed specifically with AI data centers in mind, Oklo is uniquely positioned to benefit. And there's a chance that Musk's recent comments will help spur an arms race for energy that ends up with Oklo being acquired.
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AI investors should expect an arms race for energy To power its data center build-out, SpaceX has relied on a wide variety of energy sources -- everything from wind and solar to natural gas. Other AI companies, however, have invested much more aggressively in nuclear. Alphabet and Microsoft, for example, have both committed to massive nuclear projects, from building new facilities to restarting old systems.
The arms race for energy is widely understood by industry experts, but it's still in its early innings. Small modular reactors (SMRs) -- essentially miniature, scalable nuclear power plants that can be built quickly and colocated with data center infrastructure -- should face unprecedented demand. By designing SMR systems with data center customers in mind, Oklo stands to directly benefit.
Image source: Getty Images.
So far, Oklo has focused on selling its systems to data center companies. In January, for example, Meta Platforms agreed to a 1.2 gigawatt SMR system. But as the energy arms race heats up, and SMR systems are increasingly validated, I wouldn't be surprised to see an AI company outright acquire Oklo to ensure it can scale as quickly as possible.
The allure of Oklo's systems to AI companies has already been made clear. Sam Altman, the CEO of Open AI -- one of the largest AI companies on the planet -- invested early in Oklo. "Oklo has extremely strong customer interest," Altman previously revealed. "There's no lack of desire or need for this."
I don't expect Oklo to be acquired anytime soon. But I wouldn't be surprised to see it happen if the company can prove its designs in real-world applications. AI companies will be that desperate to secure and control new energy sources.
Shares of Oklo Inc. (NYSE:OKLO) are edging higher Wednesday morning. Continued buying interest comes as investors digest ongoing trade friction between the U.S. and Canada.
Oklo shares are advancing steadily. Why is OKLO stock trading higher? Escalating U.S.-Canada Trade Standoff Maintains Uranium TailwindsOntario Premier Doug Ford cautioned that Canada could restrict U.S. shipments of high-grade nickel and refined uranium originating in Ontario, home to Cameco’s Blind River refinery, the world’s largest commercial uranium processing hub.
The prospect of cross-border supply constraints sent uranium spot prices to a seven-month high, maintaining upward pressure across domestic nuclear technology developers.
Focus Shifts To Domestic Supply Chains and Commercial Reactor MilestonesPotential restrictions on foreign fuel imports have heightened investor interest in U.S.-based Small Modular Reactor developers designed to strengthen domestic energy infrastructure.
Oklo continues to advance its DOE-backed test reactor milestones, having recently secured Department of Energy approval to load fuel and begin operational testing at its Groves Isotope Test Reactor.
The company reported ending the second quarter with $3 billion in cash and marketable securities, bolstered by $1.9 billion raised through at-the-market equity offerings.
On its August 7 earnings call, management noted that the capital insulates Oklo from public equity markets for the foreseeable future, providing liquidity to fund first-of-a-kind project costs and site development as it targets commercial deployments through 2028.
OKLO Shares Edge Higher WednesdayOKLO Price Action: Oklo shares were up 1.72% at $45.03 during premarket trading on Wednesday, according to Benzinga Pro data.
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Key Takeaways OKLO is building Aurora on fast-reactor technology with more than 400 reactor-years of operating experience.EBR-II tests showed the reactor could naturally reduce power and stabilize after coolant pumps were shut off.OKLO plans recycled EBR-II fuel for Aurora-INL, targeting operations in late 2027 to early 2028. Oklo Inc.’s (OKLO - Free Report) Aurora Powerhouse is based on a type of nuclear reactor that has already been tested and operated for decades. Fast reactors, which use liquid metal such as sodium to carry away heat, have more than 400 reactor-years of operating experience worldwide. One important example is the Experimental Breeder Reactor-II, or EBR-II. It operated for about 30 years and generated roughly 20 megawatts of electricity, giving OKLO a proven technical base for developing Aurora.
EBR-II is especially important because it showed how this type of reactor can protect itself during serious problems. In safety tests, operators intentionally switched off coolant pumps and stopped normal shutdown systems from working. Even so, the reactor naturally reduced its power and stabilized. Aurora uses similar principles. If electricity or pumps fail, hot sodium can continue moving naturally to remove heat. As the reactor gets hotter, its metal fuel expands, which automatically slows the nuclear reaction and prevents overheating.
OKLO is also applying lessons from EBR-II to its fuel strategy. The company plans to use recycled EBR-II fuel in the first Aurora-INL reactor, and equipment for its fuel-fabrication facility is already being manufactured. Aurora-INL has also received an important Department of Energy safety approval that allows final design and construction work to move ahead. Oklo currently targets operations in late 2027 to early 2028. Aurora itself is new, but much of the technology behind it has already been demonstrated in real reactors.
Peer Comparison
NuScale Power (SMR - Free Report) bases its approach on a light-water small modular reactor that uses conventional low-enriched uranium fuel available from established suppliers. NuScale Power remains the only small modular reactor developer with NRC design certification, while critical-path component design is substantially complete and supplier agreements cover more than half its network. NuScale Power is also advancing potential deployments with TVA through ENTRA1 and the six-module RoPower project in Romania.
NextEra Energy (NEE - Free Report) , the name the combined company will retain after its merger with Dominion Energy, would bring together an established nuclear operating base rather than a new reactor design. NextEra Energy expects the combined business to own the second-largest nuclear fleet in the United States, backed by its wider utility operations. Subject to approvals, NextEra Energy and Dominion expect the merger to close in the second half of 2027.
The Zacks Rundown on OKLO
Shares of Oklo have lost more than 38% so far this year, underperforming the industry's marginal growth.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
OKLO currently has an average brokerage recommendation of 1.96 on a scale of 1 to 5 (Strong Buy to Strong Sell), calculated based on the actual recommendations (Buy, Hold, Sell, etc.) made by 23 brokerage firms.
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See how the Zacks Consensus Estimate for OKLO’s earnings has been revised over the past month.
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The stock currently carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Oklo stock rose nearly 4% in premarket trading, extending the 12% gain from the previous session. The rebound came as investors returned to small modular reactor (SMR) stocks, including NuScale.
Nuclear stocks are reversing hard today even as NuScale announced a real operational win, and the gap between improving fundamentals and falling share prices points to something more unsettling happening beneath the surface.
NuScale Power (NYSE:SMR) stock is down 7% to $9.15 midday Wednesday, and the selling extends across the nuclear complex. NuScale Power is falling alongside two other reactor-related names, while the broad market sits still. Meanwhile, shares of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY) are unchanged at $765.77, framing today’s action as concentrated selling in the nuclear group specifically.
Oklo (NYSE:OKLO | OKLO Price Prediction) shares are down 6% to $41.58, while Uranium Energy (NYSEAMERICAN:UEC) stock is down 2% to $12.98. The Global X Uranium ETF (NYSEARCA:URA) sits at the center of this cluster as the sector-fund proxy for the trade rolling over today.
Over the past month through Tuesday’s close, Uranium Energy stock climbed 40%, NuScale Power stock rose 21%, and Oklo stock gained 10%. Today looks like a coordinated giveback of a portion of those gains, with no single headline driving it.
Nuclear Cluster Hands Back a Piece of the Month This is the second day investors have watched the nuclear complex reverse, and the size of the reversal is now catching up with the size of the rally. NuScale Power stock had rallied 21% in a month, so a 7% same-day slide is the biggest single-session dent in that run. Oklo stock is giving back most of a month’s advance in one session, with its 6% decline landing against a 10% monthly gain.
Uranium Energy stock has held up best on a relative basis, sliding just 2% after leading the group with a 40% monthly move. That asymmetry matters: the fastest riser is the slowest to give back, which is often how momentum unwinds begin. When the sector’s strongest name eventually catches down to its peers, the drawdown across the group tends to widen.
Year to date (YTD), the picture is more divided than the past month suggests. Uranium Energy stock was up 14% for the year through Tuesday’s close, while NuScale Power stock was down 31% and Oklo stock was down 38%. The recent rally was a rebound off pressured levels for the two reactor developers, which helps explain the sudden giveback quality of today’s action.
Operational Wins Fail to Halt the Selling NuScale Power actually published constructive news today. In particular, NuScale is deploying nuclear-specific AI tools across its engineering and knowledge-management functions, combining its small modular reactor expertise with Nuclearn’s AtomAssist platform and NPX’s nuclear project implementation experience. NuScale’s initial proof of concept reportedly cut information-retrieval time by as much as 80%, and the company remains the only small modular reactor developer with NRC design certification.
Oklo’s operational backdrop is similarly firm. The company’s Aurora Powerhouse builds on fast-reactor technology with more than 400 reactor-years of global operating experience, drawing on the Experimental Breeder Reactor-II, which ran about 30 years. Oklo plans to use recycled EBR-II fuel in its first Aurora-INL reactor, has Department of Energy safety approval to proceed with final design and construction, and targets operations in late 2027 to early 2028.
Neither milestone changed today, and neither stopped the selling. The gap between operational progress and share-price behavior tells you these names are trading on positioning and momentum right now, with project timelines a secondary input. When money crowds into a theme in the space of weeks, it can exit the same way.
All of that reactor buildout still has to be powered by real fuel and financing behind the scenes, which is the whole case we made in a free guide to five ways to play the nuclear restart: here.
Position Sizing After a Fast Round Trip When a 40% monthly gain in Uranium Energy stock and a 21% gain in NuScale Power stock can turn into a sharp down day with no fundamental trigger, position sizing matters more than direction. Investors sitting on outsized month-to-date gains here can consider trimming to a size that survives another day like this one without forcing a bad exit. Fresh buyers can wait for the giveback to slow before adding, since chasing on the way down in high-beta reactor names has rarely been rewarded.
For a broader read, investors can watch for whether the S&P 500 fund’s flat action holds through the close, since a broad-market slip would add pressure to an already-fragile nuclear group. A pickup in Uranium Energy stock selling would be the clearest signal, since it’s the last of the three still holding a big monthly gain.
Traders can look for signs that Uranium Energy stock starts to catch down to NuScale Power stock and Oklo stock, which would signal the unwind still has room to run. Until that happens, the group can rebalance intraday without a deeper drawdown taking hold.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Space Exploration Technologies CEO Elon Musk has long been known for his war on carbon emissions. In a 2006 blog post for Tesla, he laid out his ultimate aim: "[T]he overarching purpose of Tesla Motors (and the reason I am funding the company) is to help expedite the move from a mine-and-burn hydrocarbon economy toward a solar electric economy, which I believe to be the primary, but not exclusive, sustainable solution."
In a 2016 blog post, Musk went even further:
By definition, we must at some point achieve a sustainable energy economy, or we will run out of fossil fuels to burn and civilization will collapse. Given that we must get off fossil fuels anyway and that virtually all scientists agree that dramatically increasing atmospheric and oceanic carbon levels is insane, the faster we achieve sustainability, the better.
Musk's businesses have contributed heavily to the global power transition. Tesla is now producing more than 1.5 million electric vehicles per year while also producing massive battery systems to support renewables.
But Musk faces a new challenge: SpaceX's rapidly rising energy demands to support rocket launches and the scaling of its AI compute infrastructure.
"I am not against using natural gas power as a bridge to solar and even using it long-term to some degree to help with the dip in solar power during the deep winter months," Musk wrote on X on July 31. This shift in sentiment is understandable given recent news that SpaceX is building a dedicated natural gas pipeline to support rocket launches, while its rapidly growing AI infrastructure increasingly relies on natural gas for power.
Rising demand for natural gas could hurt nuclear energy investors, particularly those invested in SMR stocks like NuScale Power (SMR -4.62%) and Oklo (OKLO -5.62%).
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Oklo and NuScale investors should be worried about renewed interest in natural gas Thanks to rising energy demand from the AI sector, nuclear energy is experiencing a renaissance. That's the conclusion reached by analysts at Bank of America. In total, the firm sees nuclear energy becoming a $10 trillion global opportunity over the coming decades.
Stocks like Oklo and NuScale are particularly primed to benefit, given their focus on small modular reactors (SMRs). The AI industry needs massive amounts of clean, baseload power as quickly as possible. Building new nuclear power plants often takes a decade or more, limiting their ability to meet near-term power demands.
SMRs are essentially miniature nuclear power plants. They can -- at least in theory -- be built faster with lower up-front costs than larger, more conventional nuclear systems.
Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk. Image source: The White House
In the long run, SMR systems are not cheaper to build and operate than larger plants. The advantage of SMRs is largely their speed of construction and modularity, allowing the system to scale with growing demand.
This is the primary challenge posed by the resurgence of natural gas. If AI companies can meet near-term demand with natural gas, this fuel can then be a bridge until larger conventional nuclear power plants come online, likely at lower ongoing operating costs than a similarly sized SMR.
This challenge is particularly daunting for Oklo and NuScale, since both companies are currently unprofitable. Meaningful cash flows are likely still years away. If AI companies can delay SMR adoption by focusing on lower-cost, lower-risk natural gas facilities, the timing of these cash flows could be stretched even further. That not only introduces additional shareholder dilution but also considerably increases uncertainty regarding both companies' long-term financial viability.
In 2024, when NuScale received a cancellation notice for the largest project in its pipeline, one industry expert predicted that the collapse would permanently hinder global adoption of SMRs. "In a rational world, no utility or government would invest another dime in these theoretical reactor concepts," the expert warned.
Only two SMRs are currently in commercial operation worldwide. So, while the SMR industry is exciting and offers plenty of long-term growth potential, real-world traction remains limited. More reliance on natural gas could delay further real-world traction. That's bad news for SMR stocks like Oklo and NuScale.
Risk appetite is back, and the reactor developers are moving hard while the fuel complex barely flinches. That split tells you something important about what is actually driving NuScale Power and Oklo today.
Risk appetite is filtering back into speculative, long-duration equities Thursday morning, and the reactor developers are the tell. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY) is up 0.5% to $769.63, a modest broad-tape move that’s translating into outsized bounces in the highest-beta corners of the market.
NuScale Power (NYSE:SMR) stock is up 4% to $9.65, and Oklo (NYSE:OKLO | OKLO Price Prediction) stock is climbing 3% to $42.76 alongside it, both names rebounding after weeks of pressure. NuScale Power stock was down 35% year to date through Wednesday’s close, and Oklo stock was down 42% year to date through Wednesday’s close. A single session doesn’t repair either trend.
Meanwhile, the fuel complex isn’t participating. Uranium Energy (NYSEAMERICAN:UEC) stock is up 1% to $13.28, and the Global X Uranium ETF (NYSEARCA:URA) is practically unchanged at $48.03. That split between the developer stocks and the fuel side is the whole story today.
Positioning, Not a Nuclear Catalyst No company announcement, contract award, earnings release, regulatory action, or analyst rating change has been verified at either NuScale Power or Oklo today. The mechanism is a broader risk-on tape, helped by strong megacap tech earnings released Wednesday after the close, that’s lifting long-duration names across the market.
Because NuScale Power and Oklo carry value that sits years out, both stocks tend to swing more than the tape when appetite shifts. That sensitivity cuts both ways, and investors saw it earlier in August when the same names sold off hard on softer sessions. A 4% Thursday session is a positioning tell rather than a change in trend.
Reactor Developers Versus the Fuel Complex NuScale Power and Oklo are pre-revenue reactor developers whose value sits years out, which is what makes them highly sensitive to shifts in risk appetite. Uranium Energy, by contrast, is a fuel producer with a very different business, priced off utility contract cycles and spot uranium. That’s why a session of risk-on positioning can lift the developers while leaving the fuel complex flat.
A genuine nuclear sector catalyst would move the fuel complex alongside the developers. The absence of that co-movement is what identifies today’s action as positioning, and the Global X Uranium ETF, the cleanest sector proxy, is confirming as much by sitting still.
The year-to-date scoreboard reinforces the point. Uranium Energy stock was up 12% year to date through Wednesday’s close, while NuScale Power stock and Oklo stock remain sharply negative for the year. These names don’t trade as a single basket, and their exposures shouldn’t be sized as if they do (we mapped five ways to play the nuclear restart, utilities and fuel producers included, in a free nuclear guide).
What to Watch Next Investors can watch for whether the session gains in NuScale Power and Oklo hold into the afternoon, since risk-on rebounds in speculative equities often fade when the broader benchmark drifts. Traders can stay tuned for any regulatory or contract disclosure at either developer that would give the move a fundamental anchor rather than a positioning one.
On sizing, investors should keep their positions modest in the developer names given the volatility profile and the deep year-to-date drawdowns still on the tape. Uranium Energy sits in a different bucket, and pairing the two only makes sense when investors understand their exposure spans two distinct bets on nuclear.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
It has been a tough year for Oklo (OKLO -5.62%) and NuScale Power (SMR -4.62%). Shares of these nuclear power stocks have fallen by roughly 44% and 41%, respectively.
It's strange to see nuclear energy stocks with such promising long-term growth potential struggle in this market. Demand from the artificial intelligence (AI) sector for more energy has caused analysts to predict a nuclear renaissance. Bank of America values the upcoming nuclear opportunity at a staggering $10 trillion.
Why, then, are Oklo and NuScale struggling? There are three key reasons.
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Here's why Oklo and NuScale Power shares are struggling The main reason Oklo and NuScale shares are struggling isn't the promise of nuclear energy. Instead, shares are struggling simply due to shifts in investors' risk appetite.
Both Oklo and NuScale specialize in small modular reactors, or SMRs. These miniature nuclear power stations can be built quickly, but only two SMR systems have ever been commercialized worldwide. And both Oklo and NuScale are likely years away from commercializing their own systems. Oklo isn't even approved by regulators to begin construction.
With cash flows not expected until far into the future, even small shifts in market risk tolerance will have an undue impact on each company's stock price.
Image source: Getty Images.
The second reason shares are struggling is related to these distant cash flows. Without any revenue-generating projects, Oklo and NuScale continue to post losses each quarter. Bank of America does not see real-world SMR adoption ticking up until 2030 at the earliest, with meaningful adoption not expected until 2035 or 2040. This reality has historically forced ongoing shareholder dilution, and will likely continue to do so. Without firm financial commitments from customers, the market seemingly has grown worried about each company's financial position. It's not that these companies will go bankrupt anytime soon. But shareholder dilution may be greater than many investors expected at the start of 2026, with long-term insolvency risk a growing consideration.
Finally, shares of both Oklo and NuScale may simply have been overpriced at the start of the year. Oklo's market cap hovered around $20 billion in January, with NuScale coming in around $10 billion. Excitement around SMRs and AI caused a market fervor for nuclear power stocks. But those valuations were likely too rich for money-losing businesses with meaningful cash flows not expected until the distant future.
NuScale and Oklo remain promising businesses. But perhaps today's valuations are closer to what investors should have demanded in the first place.
Bank of America is an advertising partner of Motley Fool Money. Ryan Vanzo has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends NuScale Power. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Shares of Oklo (OKLO -5.62%) jumped more than 12% on Aug. 25, reaching more than $44 per share. That's the good news. The bad news is that the small nuclear reactor company's shares are down more than 38% so far this year.
The bounce-back, while a positive sign for those who have already invested in this nuclear energy stock, won't be luring me anytime soon. The company went public through a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) and began trading publicly in May 2025. There are a lot of reasons I'm planning to stay on the sidelines, but they can be summed up as one: Oklo's hype is outpacing its reality. Here's why.
Image source: Getty Images.
It's a pre-revenue company with a long horizon to profitability Oklo has a market cap of around $8 billion, but it generates no commercial energy income today, and its first Small Modular Reactor (SMR), the Aurora Powerhouse, isn't expected to enter commercial operation for years. In June, Oklo announced that the Department of Energy's Idaho Operations Office had approved the preliminary documented safety analysis (PDSA) for the company's first deployment of its Aurora Powerhouse, which is under construction at Idaho National Laboratory. In the meantime, the company is incurring tens of millions in operating losses annually, which means sustained cash burn and an ongoing risk of share dilution if it needs to raise additional equity to fund construction.
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In the second quarter, the company reported a loss from operations of $124.2 million. The net loss was $81.6 million, partially offset by $44.5 million in net interest and dividend income. The company has $1.6 billion in cash, but $78.6 million in debt, so interest and loan payments eat into its earnings.
Regulators are not sold yet on small modular reactors SMR development faces one of the strictest regulatory environments in the world through the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC).
Oklo was already denied an initial custom combined license application in 2022, with the NRC citing gaps in safety baseline data. Navigating approvals, reactor construction, and fuel supply chains, such as securing high-assay low-enriched uranium, or HALEU, on schedule is notoriously difficult, and single delays can push revenue out by years. The NRC and Oklo are still going back and forth on the potential approval for the company's Aurora. Regulatory bodies such as the NRC were designed to evaluate traditional, massive light-water reactors. Novel SMR designs, such as gas-cooled microreactors or molten-salt reactors, require custom safety evaluations, leading to multiyear approval timelines.
It's an expensive process, one reason why SMR competitor NuScale Power (SMR -4.62%) and its partner, Utah Associated Municipal Power Systems, dropped the Carbon Free Power Project (CFPP) in Idaho in November 2023 after projected costs ballooned from $5.3 billion to more than $9.3 billion.
Its valuation is still too high because of the hype Fueled by market enthusiasm around powering artificial intelligence (AI) data centers, Oklo's stock has experienced extreme volatility. At a multibillion-dollar valuation, much of its long-term success is already baked into the price despite the company having zero proven operational track record at scale.
You can't analyze its valuation by traditional metrics since it doesn't have product revenue or earnings yet. However, its price-to-book ratio is around 2.5, meaning investors are paying $2.50 for every $1 of net assets (total assets minus total liabilities) reported on the company's balance sheet.
Any negative headline regarding licensing delays, technical issues, or broader pullbacks in AI infrastructure spending could trigger sharp drawdowns. I'm not saying the stock doesn't have tremendous long-term prospects, but the risks are too high for me until it has its first SMR approved and running.
Westinghouse, which is 49% owned by Cameco Corp. (CCJ), recently achieved initial criticality for its eVinci microreactor this month, marking a notable milestone for advanced nuclear deployment.
Key Takeaways Westinghouse completed zero-power criticality testing for its 5 MWe eVinci microreactor at the Nevada National Security Site alongside DOE national laboratories. Advanced nuclear developers continue pushing reactor designs through core iteration beyond the federal government’s July 4 criticality target. The Range Nuclear Renaissance ETF (NUKZ) captures pure-play exposure across next-generation reactor design and commercialization. Reactor Iteration Accelerates Beyond Initial Goals Westinghouse conducted the test in partnership with Los Alamos National Laboratory and Idaho National Laboratory. It validates core design assumptions and modeling for Westinghouse’s heat pipe-cooled microreactor. The milestone follows Oklo’s (OKLO) recent regulatory and operational progress on its radioisotope and fast-reactor designs, underscoring accelerating core reactor progress.
While the broader industry celebrated the July 4 criticality goal set by executive mandates, private reactor design iteration and development remain robust. Advanced reactor developers are partnering with national labs. These collaborations build the foundation for scalable commercial rollouts to satisfy surging data center and industrial power demand.
Investing in Advanced Microreactor Deployment via NUKZ For investors tracking the nuclear energy renaissance, nuclear deployment represents a long-term thematic growth driver. Oklo and Cameco are holdings of the Range Nuclear Renaissance ETF (NUKZ), which provides targeted exposure across the entire nuclear value chain.
NUKZ delivers exposure to nuclear segments including advanced reactor developers, utilities, construction services, and fuel providers. As regulatory frameworks modernize and utility-scale microreactors move toward commercial deployment, index-based strategies like NUKZ allow advisors to capture broad supply-chain upside while mitigating single-company regulatory risk.
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For more news, information, and analysis, visit the Nuclear Energy Content Hub.
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For decades, the U.S. has treated spent nuclear fuel as one of the biggest environmental problems left behind by nuclear power, with roughly 94,000 metric tons of spent fuel stored in facilities across the country. And while the materials are safely contained, some of the isotopes in this spent fuel have a half-life of nearly 25,000 years -- so yes, they're dangerous, and an enormous liability.
But Oklo (OKLO -5.70%) is proposing something audacious. The company argues that all that fuel sitting in storage still contains enormous amounts of usable energy. And you know what? The science -- and more importantly, the regulators -- support the premise.
Image source: Getty Images.
This is where Oklo sees the silver lining -- one that could rival some of the world's largest energy reserves. But is all this a pipe dream, or is there an actual business opportunity here? And more importantly, how close is Oklo to taking this opportunity and delivering a real return on investment?
Inside Oklo's $1.68 billion nuclear fuel recycling plan In 2025, Oklo announced plans to build a fuel recycling facility in Tennessee as part of a larger $1.68 billion advanced fuel center project.
"The recycling facility will recover usable fuel material from used nuclear fuel and fabricate it into fuel for advanced reactors," the company said in its announcement. "This process can reduce waste volumes for more economical, clean, and efficient disposal pathways."
But the even bigger headline here is that the estimated 94,000 metric tons of used nuclear fuel could generate energy equivalent to 1.3 trillion barrels of oil. That's five times Saudi Arabia's estimated oil reserves.
The U.S. Department of Energy itself notes that more than 90% of the potential energy in spent nuclear fuel remains even after it has been used in a conventional reactor. So that's a viable claim.
Oklo CEO Jacob DeWitte highlights the claim, saying, "By recycling used fuel at scale, we are turning waste into gigawatts, reducing costs, and establishing a secure U.S. supply chain that will support the deployment of clean, reliable, and affordable power."
Now, those are some big numbers being thrown around, so let's frame it against the potential scope of this opportunity.
The U.S. operates a once-through nuclear fuel cycle. Uranium is mined, processed into fuel, used in reactors, and then stored as waste. It's not exactly the most efficient or environmentally friendly of processes. Oklo's proposal would move away from that strictly once-through model by recovering usable material from spent fuel.
Even better, DeWitte says its recycling process can shorten the material's half-life from tens of thousands of years to a few hundred years while also reducing the volume of the material up for final disposal. That plan checks every box on an ESG rating scorecard.
And on top of that, many U.S. leaders view the country's dependence on imported oil as a major strategic vulnerability. One need only look at the havoc caused by the repeated closure of the Strait of Hormuz this past year to see just how vulnerable the global energy market is.
So, Oklo's planned recycling program could potentially become a valuable piece of America's energy-security strategy.
The risks behind Oklo's ambitious nuclear timeline But there's a caveat here: While the proposal is ambitious, it's also theoretical.
The fuel recycling plant isn't expected to begin producing metal fuel until the early 2030s. It doesn't even have a groundbreaking date set yet.
On top of that, it also needs to work within the company's larger Aurora reactor business, which is still moving through the regulatory and development process.
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Granted, Oklo has managed to jump some hoops since the initial announcement. It received a DOE start-up authorization for its Groves Isotope Test Reactor in Texas in July 2026. Then, in early August, it achieved a controlled, self-sustaining nuclear chain reaction at low power -- a criticality in nuclear science terms. This is an important step toward establishing operating experience and demonstrating deployment capabilities that could inform Oklo's future commercial facilities.
But the fact remains that Oklo does not yet have an operating commercial nuclear power reactor, nor is it anywhere close to completing the fuel recycling facility.
So it's a bet, and a long one at that.
And yet, many Wall Street analysts are willing to underwrite that bet, with the stock getting a solid Moderate Buy rating from consensus estimates. So if you're willing to go the distance, Oklo is a viable long-term choice, but it needs to execute and deliver for all this to make sense.
Key Takeaways OKLO and Talen Energy offer different nuclear-power paths as electricity and data-center demand rise.OKLO targets 2028 for Aurora-INL, but approvals, fuel and grid connections remain key risks.Talen expects $1.2-$1.35B in 2026 adjusted free cash flow and has a nearly 2 GW AWS agreement. Oklo Inc. (OKLO - Free Report) and Talen Energy (TLN - Free Report) both offer exposure to rising electricity demand and nuclear power, but their investment cases differ sharply. OKLO is building a next-generation nuclear platform whose value depends heavily on future commercialization. Talen owns generation assets that are already operating, produces meaningful cash flow and is using that base to pursue data-center growth.
The Case for OKLO Stock
OKLO’s biggest attraction is the scale of what it is trying to build. Its strategy links Aurora powerhouses with fuel fabrication, recycling and isotope production, creating several potential revenue streams rather than relying only on electricity sales. The planned 1.2-gigawatt Ohio campus, Aurora-INL and isotope activities give the company multiple ways to benefit if demand for reliable nuclear power keeps expanding.
Execution has moved beyond the drawing board. Groves reached first criticality less than a year after groundbreaking, after substantial construction was completed in 229 days. That project gave OKLO direct experience in construction, commissioning, safety work, operator training and project controls. The acquisitions of ARMEC and Creative Engineers also bring specialized engineering and manufacturing capabilities in-house, potentially reducing dependence on outside suppliers.
Fuel is another important part of OKLO’s strategy. The company is working on several ways to secure the fuel needed for its future reactors, including commercial HALEU, government-supplied materials and fuel recycling. OKLO has signed a letter of intent with nuclear fuel supplier Centrus Energy to secure enough HALEU to support up to five Aurora powerhouses, with deliveries potentially beginning in 2029.
However, OKLO still has a long way to go before its nuclear projects generate meaningful revenues. Aurora-INL is targeted to begin operations in 2028, but it still needs additional safety approvals and authorization to start up. The company expects to use $120-$150 million in operating cash and spend $400-$500 million on property and equipment in 2026. Its roughly $3 billion in cash and marketable securities provides financial support, but delays in approvals, construction, fuel supplies or grid connections could increase costs and push projects further out.
The Case for TLN Stock
Talen Energy has one major advantage over OKLO: it already owns and operates a large power-generation business. The company has about 15.7 GW of power capacity in the United States, including 2.2 GW of nuclear power. Its Cornerstone acquisition added another roughly 2.6 GW of generation, giving Talen more plants that can produce electricity and generate cash today rather than years from now.
The outlook for electricity demand also works in Talen’s favor. Power demand in the PJM market, where many of its plants operate, is expected to rise more than 17% through the end of the decade. Higher demand could mean that Talen’s plants run more often and benefit from stronger electricity prices. The company is also targeting the growing data-center market, with about 4 GW of potential sites and a nearly 2 GW agreement with Amazon Web Services, Amazon’s cloud-computing business. These long-term contracts could make a larger part of Talen’s future revenues more predictable.
Talen is also financially stronger at this stage of its development. Management expects adjusted EBITDA of $2.025-$2.225 billion and adjusted free cash flow of $1.2-$1.35 billion in 2026. In simple terms, the company is already producing substantial cash that can be used to strengthen the business, invest in growth or buy back shares. This gives TLN more financial flexibility than a company such as OKLO, which is still spending heavily before its main power projects begin producing revenues.
There are still risks. Talen has significant debt, and part of its earnings depends on electricity prices, regulations and the ability to move power across the grid. One risk is that electricity produced by Talen’s plants in the PPL area of the broader PJM power market is currently selling at a bigger-than-usual discount to a key PJM benchmark price. Management expects transmission upgrades and rising local demand to reduce that gap over time, which could improve the prices Talen receives for its power. If that happens, Talen could receive better prices for the electricity it produces, although there is no certainty about how quickly the improvement will occur.
Price Performance
Both stocks have struggled in 2026, but Talen Energy has held up much better. OKLO is down 41.4% year to date compared with a 16.1% decline for TLN. The smaller drop suggests that investors have placed greater value on Talen’s current earnings and cash flows than on Oklo’s longer-dated commercialization story.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Earnings Estimates
The estimate trend clearly favors TLN. Its 2026 Zacks Consensus Estimate increased over the past week from $21.97 to $22.18, while the 2027 estimate rose from $32.12 to $32.39. The 2026 figure implies 259.5% growth over 2025, followed by another 46% increase in 2027.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
OKLO’s estimates were unchanged, with losses projected at 90 cents per share for 2026 and 99 cents for 2027, implying further deterioration.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Which Stock Wins Now?
Overall, OKLO offers substantial long-term upside if its technology, fuel strategy and project pipeline convert into commercial power sales. Yet, TLN currently combines operating assets, visible cash generation, data-center exposure and improving earnings expectations. TLN carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) and is therefore better placed at the moment than Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) OKLO.
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Oklo (OKLO +1.03%) had the best month of its corporate life in August. The nuclear reactor developer reported its first revenue in company history, about $1.2 million, mostly from services. Days earlier, Groves (the company's isotope test reactor in Lockhart, Texas) sustained a controlled nuclear chain reaction for the first time. Nuclear engineers call that first criticality, and it arrived in early August, about 11 months after construction started on an empty site. A company long defined by promises now has an operating reactor.
But an operating test reactor is not a power business. Oklo's actual product -- electricity sold from its Aurora powerhouses under long-term contracts -- doesn't exist yet, and the growth stock's valuation rests on when it will.
So here is my prediction, built from Oklo's own published schedule: The company won't book its first dollar of commercial power revenue before 2028.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
Five steps, two doneThe timeline for Aurora-INL, the first powerhouse at Idaho National Laboratory, runs like this. Construction began with a groundbreaking on Sept. 22, 2025. In July 2025, when Oklo named the project's lead constructor, the company projected commercial operation in late 2027 or early 2028. By this month's quarterly filing, the language had firmed into "an ambitious target of deploying our first powerhouse in 2028." That adjective is management's own, and the early edge of the old window is gone.
Initial authorization for this plant runs through the Department of Energy (DOE), not the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). That is a faster path, but it has defined gates. Oklo's filing describes five steps in the DOE's regulatory pathway for operating a nuclear facility, and two are done: the Nuclear Safety Design Agreement, approved early in 2026, and the Preliminary Documented Safety Analysis, approved June 11. Three remain.
Then comes fuel. The first core depends on a DOE award of five metric tons of high-assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU) recovered from decades-old government reactor fuel, which Oklo must fabricate into finished fuel at a new facility at the Idaho site.
Commercial HALEU from Centrus Energy, the supply meant to feed later powerhouses, isn't expected to start delivery until 2029 under the companies' letter of intent.
That 2029 supply feeds a planned Ohio campus where social media giant Meta Platforms has agreed to support up to 1.2 gigawatts of development, prepaying to help fund fuel.
The operators of artificial intelligence (AI) data centers are lining up power years in advance, in other words, and the demand side of Oklo's model looks the readier half. The first plant, though, rides on a one-time government allocation.
Only after construction, the remaining approvals, fuel fabrication, fuel loading, and start-up testing does Oklo's business model switch on. The company builds, owns, and operates its plants and sells the electricity. Revenue arrives when the power does. If start-up comes in 2028, so does the revenue, at the earliest.
Could it come earlier? Startup would have to beat the company's own target by months, from a first-of-a-kind plant, on first-of-a-kind fuel, with three regulatory gates still open. Groves shows this team moves fast. It is also a low-power test reactor built on private land under the same DOE pilot program, a fraction of the 75-megawatt Aurora's complexity. Encouraging, yes. A schedule for a commercial plant, no.
Isotopes come firstThe prediction doesn't mean Oklo stays revenue-free until 2028. On the company's August earnings call, management said the first revenue out of its isotope business is more likely to come from the NRC-licensed Idaho Radiochemistry Laboratory than from Groves, in the first part of 2027. Groves, meanwhile, is expected to spend the next year or so working up to producing research-and-development quantities of isotopes.
So the sequence in Oklo's own statements is services now, isotopes in 2027, and power after that. My prediction says the last item doesn't jump the queue.
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Oklo can afford the wait, for what it's worth. The company ended June holding about $3 billion in cash and marketable securities. Guidance for 2026 calls for $120 million to $150 million of operating cash use, plus $400 million to $500 million of capital spending on property and equipment. The money to reach 2028 is in hand.
Why 2028 holdsTo be clear, a 2028 start would be an achievement, not a disappointment. If the company sells its first megawatt-hour that year, it will have gone from groundbreaking to commercial nuclear power in about three years, a pace the industry hasn't managed in decades.
The prediction only says the schedule means what it says. A first-of-a-kind reactor, three regulatory steps from operation, doesn't produce revenue a year ahead of its own ambitious target. Investors should expect 2026 and 2027 to be about milestones and isotope sales. The power revenue, if the target holds, comes in 2028.
Sell short Oklo (OKLO). The stock broke below $45.2 support, invalidated the double bottom, and is below all moving averages with short interest elevated (16.3%). Fundamentals are still pre-revenue with heavy dilution via ATMs, so rallies likely get sold and downside can extend toward $30.
Key Risk: Oklo lands a credible, near-term commercialization milestone (major customer/order or DOE-backed funding) that flips sentiment and forces shorts to cover.
SMR basket short (equal-weight)
Short an equal-weight basket of SMR developers most exposed to the same funding/dilution risk (e.g., NuScale (SMR), TerraPower-linked suppliers, and other pre-revenue SMR names). The article’s core driver is industry skepticism plus dilution; when one leader breaks support, the whole group de-risks and multiple names re-rate lower together.
Key Risk: A broad policy/funding acceleration (DOE awards or large utility procurement) that improves financing visibility across the sector and lifts the whole group.
Oklo stock has slumped this year as concerns about the small modular reactor (SMR) industry continues. It has fallen to $41.36, down by nearly 80% from its highest point last year, with its market capitalization falling from over $24 billion to $7.6 billion. This retreat may continue as concerns about the industry remains and short interest jumps.
Concerns about Oklo’s business remainOklo is a Sam Altman-backed company building technology that could disrupt the power industry. It is one of the biggest players in the small modular reactor industry, which some analysts believe will play a crucial role in the power sector in the future.
The company has three business lines: power, fuel, and isotopes. Its power business creates demand, while its fuel enables deployment. Its isotopes business, on the other hand, expands value through nuclear capabilities.
If the SMR industry takes off, Oklo will be one of the top names to benefit. This will be possible as the US policy is supportive of the technology, with the Department of Energy (DoE) encouraging the sector. It has already selected five states as potential hosts for Nuclear Lifecycle Innovation Campuses that will integrate fuel fabrication, enrichment, and fabrication.
For now, however, the main risk that Oklo faces is that it is still in the development phase, and it is unclear whether it will continue growing. Being in the pre-revenue phase, the company continues to burn substantial sums of money.
Its recent results showed that its year-to-date loss jumped to $81.6 million. Its loss from operations was $124.2 million, which was offset by its net interest and dividend income of $44.5 million. This loss-making will continue in the foreseeable future until it becomes profitable.
At the same time, the company continues to dilute its shareholders. It ended the last quarter with $3 billion in cash and marketable securities. This cash increased by $1.9 billion after it announced two ATM offerings.
These ATMs have fueled a surge in outstanding shares, which have moved from 51.5 million in 2022 to 185 million today. This is another reason why its short interest rate has jumped to 16.3%, with the FT noting that short sellers in SMR companies have made billions of dollars.
Most analysts covering the company have lowered their targets, with Citigroup cutting from $76 to $57. Truist cut it from $55 to $51, while Canaccord Genuity slashed it from $125 to $100.
Oklo share price chart | Source: TradingView
The weekly chart shows that the Oklo stock has retreated sharply in the past few months, falling from $194 to $41. It has already moved below the important support level of $45.2, its lowest level in March this year. Moving below that level invalidated the double bottom pattern.
The stock has now moved slightly below the 78.6% Fibonacci Retracement level, a sign that short sellers remain in control. It has also slumped below all moving averages.
Therefore, the stock will likely continue falling in the near future, potentially to the psychological level of $30.
Sometimes it's good to be the hot new stock in an industry ripe for disruption. And that's exactly what Oklo (OKLO -5.74%) was when it went public in May 2024 through a SPAC (special purpose acquisition company) merger. The small modular reactor (SMR) company had a compelling plan focused on artificial intelligence (AI), support from AI guru Sam Altman, and an incoming nuclear-friendly presidential administration.
But one problem with being the hot new stock is that you eventually become the not-so-new stock, leaving room for another company to assume that role.
That's exactly what happened in April when X-Energy (XE -7.80%) went public. This new SMR company has a compelling AI-focused plan, support from AI hyperscaler Amazon (AMZN -0.71%), and a nuclear-friendly presidential administration. Wait a minute... this sounds familiar!
So, which of these next-generation nuclear stocks looks like a better buy?
Image source: Getty Images.
How they're different SMR company NuScale Energy (SMR -5.99%) is developing an SMR that's essentially a smaller version of the standard water-cooled system found in almost all existing U.S. nuclear power plants. But Oklo and X-Energy's SMR designs differ from NuScale's in fundamental ways.
Oklo's Aurora Powerhouse design is based on a small-scale fast reactor cooled by liquid sodium instead of water. Because liquid sodium has a very high boiling point, the system can operate at higher temperatures and lower pressures than a water-cooled reactor, which in theory makes it more efficient. The "fast" part of the "fast reactor" maintains fission without slowing down neutrons, allowing the reactor to be fueled with spent fuel from existing reactors.
X-Energy's XE-100 SMR is a high-temperature reactor cooled by pressurized helium gas, which is then pumped into a separate water loop to heat the water into steam and power steam turbines. As an inert element, helium provides extra insurance that no radiation is transferred into the water system. If the XE-100's core temperatures rise, its design uses the inherent physics of matter expansion and neutron interaction to slow the reaction rate without human intervention, providing an additional safety measure against a meltdown.
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How they're similar Perhaps the biggest similarity between Oklo's and X-Energy's designs is that neither has been built yet. While each company has received some preliminary support from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) under the Trump administration, neither reactor design has been approved for commercial deployment by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC).
Oklo is currently building its first Aurora Powerhouse on the grounds of the DOE's Idaho National Laboratory. It expects to bring that reactor to criticality around Q1 2027. Meanwhile, X-Energy has partnered with the DOE and Dow Chemical (DOW -0.48%) to build the first four XE-100 reactors at a Dow facility in Texas and use them for both power generation and industrial steam production. However, the regulatory review of its application is ongoing, so construction isn't likely to begin until at least Q1 2027.
Both companies also have nuclear fuel businesses that they expect to contribute to their bottom lines. X-Energy will manufacture a type of ceramic-coated pelleted uranium fuel called TRISO, which is safer to use than standard uranium fuel, while Oklo has several fuel operations in the works, including working with surplus plutonium from government sources, recycling nuclear fuel, and creating nuclear isotopes for industrial and healthcare use.
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Because both companies are pre-commercial, their current financials tell us little about how their respective businesses will perform once they receive commercial approval from the NRC. And that's even assuming they do ultimately receive such approval, which isn't guaranteed. A critical design flaw could manifest in one or both designs, scuttling that company's ambitions and sinking its stock. Nobody, not even risk-tolerant investors, should invest money in either company that they can't afford to lose.
Even if both companies' plans proceed smoothly, investors buying in now are signing up for a long wait. That said, because Oklo appears to be a bit further along in its process, it looks like the better buy of these two highly speculative companies.
Oklo (OKLO -0.56%), a developer of microreactors, completed its construction of Groves One, its pilot isotope-production reactor, in just 229 days this June. CEO Jacob DeWitte subsequently claimed Oklo would build its reactors at a "world record speed" in the U.S. to serve the soaring energy demands of the AI boom and American manufacturing.
Oklo's deployment of Groves One wasn't the fastest in history, since a few small reactors were deployed even faster during the early Atomic Age and Cold War. Still, it marked the fastest U.S. non-military reactor build under modern environmental and Department of Energy (DOE) regulations. Let's see why that's a bright green flag for Oklo's investors.
Image source: Getty Images.
The first major step toward its first commercial deployments Oklo's Aurora microreactor is tiny compared to a conventional nuclear reactor. It generates just 1.5 MWe, but it can be connected to more microreactors to generate up to 75 MWe per "Powerhouse" plant. That's not much power compared to a conventional nuclear power plant, which typically generates more than 1,000 MWe. Still, Oklo's smaller plants are well-suited for rapid deployments in remote and off-grid areas.
The Aurora runs on metallic uranium fuel pellets, which are denser, have higher thermal resistance, and are cheaper to fabricate than the uranium dioxide fuel pellets used in traditional reactors. By processing its pellets in a closed loop, its reactors can last for a decade without refueling. Conventional reactors are refueled in stages every two years.
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Oklo's microreactors sound like a game changer for the nuclear energy market, but they haven't been commercially deployed yet. It plans to start generating meaningful revenue after it deploys its first commercial reactors in Idaho in 2027, but it needs to pass a few crucial tests first.
Last month, Oklo received a Startup Authorization (to load nuclear fuel and start testing) from the DOE following a safety and operation readiness review. On Aug. 5, the Groves Isotope Test Reactor achieved criticality (a controlled, self-sustaining nuclear chain reaction) for the first time.
But is Oklo's stock worth buying today? Oklo's progress is encouraging, but it wasn't flawless. It actually missed the DOE's initial target for achieving criticality by July 4, while four other microreactor developers -- Antares, Valar Atomics, Deployable Energy, and Aalo Atomics -- met that deadline.
Assuming Oklo successfully deploys its first commercial reactors, analysts expect Oklo's revenue to surge from nothing in 2025 to $55 million in 2028. But with a market cap of $8.3 billion, it's already valued at 149 times its 2028 sales. It's also expected to stay unprofitable, and its share count has risen by more than 50% since its public debut in May 2024. Those issues make Oklo's stock a bit too hot to handle in this volatile market.
Buy Oklo (OKLO -4.46%) at its 52-week high of $193.84, and a $10,000 stake would be worth about $2,300 as of this writing. Shares of the nuclear reactor developer trade near $44, down roughly 77% from that peak.
The odd part is what happened underneath the price. The company's operating record improved almost continuously while the stock collapsed.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
The record improved on the way down Oklo booked its first sales in company history in the second quarter: about $1.2 million, mostly from engineering and consulting services. Much of that revenue arrived with businesses Oklo acquired in June, so it's a purchased start more than an organic one. But a company that went public with no revenue at all now has some, plus the beginnings of a services operation.
The bigger milestone came from Texas. Oklo's Groves Isotope Test Reactor in Lockhart reached first criticality (a controlled, self-sustaining nuclear reaction) less than a year after groundbreaking, the company said in early August. Groves is the first reactor in the U.S. Department of Energy's Reactor Pilot Program to get there on private land, built from scratch.
The facility is designed to produce isotopes for healthcare, industrial, and national security applications. And it gives Oklo something the market has long doubted it could deliver: an operating nuclear facility, built fast.
The losses, of course, are still enormous. Oklo has lost about $153 million over the past 12 months, and management is spending faster to reduce the risks around its first projects, not slower.
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What the drawdown priced out So the business made progress, and the stock lost three-quarters of its value anyway. Both things are true, and the price investors were paying at the top is what reconciles them.
At $193.84, investors were paying more than four times today's price -- a valuation that assumed data-center power deals and profitable plants stacked years into the future, all arriving on schedule, from a company that had never generated a dollar of revenue and whose first commercial power plant remains under construction.
Today's $8.6 billion market value is a fraction of what investors once paid. But it is still about 7,000 times the company's trailing revenue -- an arguably extreme price in its own right. The drawdown didn't turn Oklo into a value stock. It moved the stock from pricing in everything to pricing in a lot.
However you weigh it, the operating record between the two prices runs in Oklo's favor. Revenue exists now, and a reactor reached criticality in under a year. The price still asks investors to fund years of losses before the power business proves out. And the 77% drawdown says less about what Oklo has done than about what its shareholders once paid for the promise.
The AI-driven nuclear power resurgence has been one of the hottest storylines over the past year. It has driven significant interest in nuclear energy stocks. Nuclear names like Oklo (OKLO -4.46%) and NuScale (SMR -4.67%) have been hot commodities as investors buy into the hype that these promising companies can cash in on the nuclear power megatrend.
However, while all eyes have been on Oklo and NuScale, investors might be overlooking another company that's also building a small modular reactor (SMR): GE Vernova (GEV +1.32%). While more known for its leading gas turbine and wind energy business, the massive power equipment maker is becoming an underappreciated nuclear energy name to watch.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
GE Vernova's nuclear-powered upside GE Vernova already has an established nuclear power services business. During the second quarter, the company noted that power service orders rose 12%, driven by nuclear and gas power. The company also highlighted that its services revenue increased, due again to both nuclear and gas power.
The company is also investing in nuclear power for the long-term. CEO Scott Strazik highlighted this on the second-quarter call when discussing the company's long-term investments. He noted that, on nuclear, "we continue advancing the SMR for industrialization at scale, as evidenced by our progress on the existing project underway in Ontario." That project (using GVH's BWRX-300 design) is already under construction, with completion expected by the end of the decade. Once finished, it will be the first grid-scale SMR in the Western world, putting GE Vernova ahead of both Oklo and NuScale. Additionally, the CEO noted that in the second quarter, the company "secured two more tech selects in early work agreements for our SMR in the U.S.," potentially positioning it for greater nuclear-powered growth.
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It has since launched the next phase of what could become its next nuclear project. In mid-August, GE Vernova Hitachi Nuclear Energy (GVH) and Blue Energy signed an agreement to advance their collaboration to deploy a 2.5-gigawatt (GW) gas-plus-nuclear power plant in Texas. The project would deploy both GE Vernova 7HA.02 gas turbines and GVH BWRX-300 SMRs, subject to a final investment decision that could come in 2027. The project would initially power a 1 GW data center nearby using two GE Vernova gas turbines, and then add another 1.5 GW of nuclear capacity from up to five GVH SMRs, starting in 2032. The companies believe it could serve as a blueprint for deploying reliable baseload power at scale and speed.
GE Vernova: The lower-risk nuclear upside play GE Vernova doesn't get much discussion in the nuclear power story because it's not a pure-play on the trend. Gas is by far its most dominate business these days. Its gas power equipment backlog grew from 100 GW to 116 GW in the second quarter and is on track to reach 125 GW by year-end. Meanwhile, even though its wind business is struggling (with a 40% drop in orders and a 10% revenue decline in the second quarter), GE Vernova has the largest installed base of onshore wind turbines in the U.S.
However, while that makes it an overlooked nuclear play, it also helps significantly de-risk it as a nuclear energy investment. GE Vernova's legacy gas and wind businesses, which are benefiting from the same AI power megatrend as Oklo and NuScale, generate significant revenue and cash flow. Its revenue grew 22% in the second quarter to $11.1 billion, while it produced $5.5 billion in cash from operating activities. That enabled GE Vernova to build its cash balance to $13.1 billion while returning $3.9 billion to shareholders through dividends and repurchases this year. This strong financial profile provides ample funding for long-term SMR investments.
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Contrast that with Oklo and NuScale. Oklo generated a mere $1.2 million in revenue during the second quarter, compared to zero in the prior quarter and the prior year. That compares to a net loss of $48.4 million. On a more positive note, it has around $2.5 billion in cash and investments, providing liquidity to fund its operations and SMR investments for a while. Meanwhile, NuScale is in a similar financial position. It generated only $75,000 in revenue during the second quarter (down from $8 million in the year-ago period) and posted a $47.5 million net loss. Though it, too, has a liquidity buffer ($1.9 billion) to help fund its operations and SMR investments for a while.
Look beyond the obvious names Oklo and NuScale have received significant investor attention over the past year because they're pure-play SMR technology companies. That's causing investors to overlook the embedded SMR upside quietly building within GE Vernova. Unlike SMR start-ups Oklo and NuScale, GE Vernova is generating strong, growing revenues and cash flow, giving it the financial fortitude to make long-term SMR investments that could deliver a big payoff for shareholders in the coming years.
Oklo (OKLO -4.46%) is making waves in the nuclear energy space. With its cutting-edge microreactors, Oklo aims to position itself for the nuclear energy boom set to unfold over the next few decades.
Hyperscalers are ramping up data center construction at an unprecedented pace. They require vast amounts of energy, creating an opportunity for innovative energy solutions.
As an early-stage developer of next-generation reactors, Oklo could be a game changer. So, if you were to invest $5,000 in Oklo today, could that turn into a life-changing sum? Let's take a closer look at where Oklo stands now and what needs to happen for today's investors to see major returns.
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How Oklo looks to address growing power needs During Oklo's most recent earnings call on Aug. 7, CFO Craig Bealmear said that the company looks to position itself for "unconstrained demand" for power, including robust demand from hyperscalers and data center operators. Driving this are modern artificial intelligence (AI) clusters, which require significant amounts of continuous, high-density, reliable power.
Oklo is positioning itself as an independent power producer. The company will develop, finance, own, and operate Aurora powerhouse reactors based on the U.S. Department of Energy's Experimental Breeder Reactor-II (EBR-II), which operated successfully for 30 years at Idaho National Laboratory until the mid-1990s.
It plans on deploying its powerhouses next to data centers or industrial hubs, where it can provide "behind-the-meter" power separate from the utility grid. From here, the company plans to sign long-term power purchase agreements (PPAs) with customers who look to secure electricity at a predictable rate.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
Robust energy demand has hyperscalers seeking novel power solutions Earlier this year, Oklo signed a master agreement with Meta Platforms to help support its 1.2-gigawatt (GW) campus in Ohio. The site will host multiple Oklo Aurora powerhouses, up to 16 units if using Oklo's 75 MWe design. Unlike standard PPAs, Meta is helping fund the project, mitigating some of Oklo's early-stage capital requirements. Oklo aims to bring the first phase of this project online by 2030.
In addition to its powerhouses, Oklo aims to be an integrated nuclear company with control over its nuclear fuel. As part of this, the company is investing in a commercial electrorefining recycling facility in Oak Ridge, Tennessee, where it looks to process spent nuclear fuel into reactor-grade fuel.
Is Oklo a life-changing investment opportunity? Oklo boasts $3 billion in liquidity, which helps finance its early projects. However, the company is still in its very early stages. Its flagship Aurora reactor at the Idaho National Laboratory likely won't start up until 2028, and its Ohio powerhouse site won't be operational until the 2030s.
It will take several years for Oklo to establish and validate its technology, and even more time for the company to scale its operations. If you're investing in Oklo today and are hoping for life-changing returns, you must do so with a multi-decade timeline in mind, and hope the company successfully transitions from a pre-revenue developer to a fleet-scale operator along the way.
Some stocks need years to ripen into their best form. Others explode out of the gate and never look back. Somehow, Oklo (OKLO -4.46%) has been both.
Oklo went public via a special purpose acquisition company merger (SPAC) in May 2024. It debuted on the market with a share price of about $15.50. If you had invested $10,000 in Oklo, then (at $15.50 a share), you would have lost half your investment by the end of its first day on the market. Share prices collapsed to about $8.45. So much for Sam Altman's nuclear moonshot.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
From there, however, Oklo has staged an impressive climb. And while today's share price (about $44) is certainly not the highest it's ever peaked, it has roughly tripled from where it started on that bruising first day.
In other words, a $10,000 investment in Oklo at its starting price of $15.50 would be worth about $28,600 today, assuming shares were held consistently throughout.
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At Oklo's peak of roughly $193 per share (in October 2025), that original $10,000 investment would have been worth more than $124,000 (briefly).
Oklo, to say the least, is not a normal nuclear energy stock. It has significant upside, but the risks are just as enormous. The company has, I think, matured significantly since hitting that peak of $193, but the road from today's early-stage reactor developer to a profitable business is long and enveloped in mist. The company still has to prove its harder parts -- license Aurora for commercial deployment, then actually deploy Aurora for profit -- but for those who can wait patiently, the stock has the potential to return to those high levels.
Steven Porrello has positions in Oklo. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Key Takeaways Oklo reached first criticality at Groves, adding demonstrated nuclear operating experience.Groves can inform future projects, but each facility still needs its own engineering and approvals.Aurora-INL faces final safety analysis, readiness review and startup authorization before operation.
Oklo Inc. (OKLO - Free Report) reached first criticality at its Groves isotope test reactor on Aug. 5, 2026, giving the company operating experience before its larger Aurora power projects enter service. The milestone matters because it moves part of Oklo’s execution case from planning into demonstrated nuclear operations. However, OKLO shares are still down some 37% over the past year, reflecting continued investor concerns about commercialization, costs and execution.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Investors still need to separate execution proof from commercialization. Groves can inform future projects, but it does not by itself resolve the regulatory, engineering and revenue-timing risks attached to Oklo’s broader platform.
Why Oklo’s Groves Milestone MattersGroves reached first criticality less than a year after groundbreaking, after substantial construction was completed in 229 days. Oklo moved through construction, authorization, commissioning, fuel loading, startup testing and operation on a privately sited facility.
That makes Groves more useful as an execution proof point than as a near-term revenue event. The company expects roughly another 12 months of work before Groves produces research and development isotope quantities, while first isotope revenue is expected from its Idaho radiochemistry lab in the first part of 2027.
Image Source: Oklo Inc.
OKLO Gains a Real-World Execution Proof PointGroves gave Oklo direct experience with nuclear construction, safety documentation, operating procedures, supplier qualification, commissioning, operator training and project controls. Those capabilities now exist inside the organization rather than only as plans for future deployment.
The experience can support isotope, fuel and power projects, but it does not make them interchangeable. Each future facility still requires its own engineering, safety analysis, authorization or licensing work and execution plan.
Oklo Can Reuse Groves Lessons Across ProjectsAurora-INL is the clearest test of whether those lessons transfer. The Department of Energy approved the project’s preliminary documented safety analysis, while site mobilization, excavation, procurement, engineering and system integration are advancing.
Oklo can carry forward supplier experience, construction sequencing, readiness preparation and operating knowledge into Aurora-INL, a larger and more complex asset. NuScale Power Corporation (SMR - Free Report) is advancing its small modular reactor technology through partner-led projects. NANO Nuclear Energy Inc. (NNE - Free Report) is developing microreactor systems and related nuclear-fuel capabilities.
OKLO Still Has Bigger Milestones AheadAurora-INL still requires completion and approval of its final documented safety analysis, followed by a readiness review and startup authorization before operation. Those steps keep the larger power deployment dependent on additional regulatory and execution milestones.
Commercial timing remains another constraint. The first Aurora powerhouse is targeted for 2028, while isotope revenue is now expected later than previously indicated. Groves improves Oklo’s execution credibility, but it does not eliminate the risk that commercialization takes longer than planned.
Oklo’s Ratings Temper the Milestone OptimismGroves strengthens the qualitative case that Oklo can build, authorize, commission and operate a nuclear facility. The milestone is meaningful, but the investment case still depends on converting that capability into timely progress across larger power, fuel and isotope projects.
OKLO currently carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell), along with a Value Score of F, Growth Score of F, Momentum Score of F and VGM Score of F. The Zacks Rank reflects unfavorable earnings-estimate trends, while the weak Style Scores provide little quantitative support across value, growth and momentum. That combination argues for caution until operating progress is matched by stronger financial and estimate trends.
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Bloom Energy (BE -1.05%) and Oklo (OKLO -1.21%) represent two different ways to invest in the soaring energy demands of the booming AI market. Bloom produces solid oxide fuel cells (SOFCs), which can convert natural gas, propane, biogas, and pure hydrogen into electricity via an oxygen-driven electrochemical reaction that doesn't require any combustion. They can also be deployed rapidly, often in less than two months, and bypass conventional power grids. That cleaner, faster approach made Bloom popular with hyperscalers.
Oklo develops microreactors, which are much smaller than traditional nuclear reactors but can be linked together with additional reactors to produce more power. These modular designs are well-suited for deploying smaller nuclear power plants in remote locations, which makes them appealing to hyperscalers that want to build their data centers in off-grid areas.
Image source: Getty Images.
Over the past two years, Bloom's stock has surged about 2,030%, and Oklo's stock has rallied more than 510%. Let's see why Bloom generated much bigger gains than Oklo -- and if it will remain the better play on the AI-driven energy boom for the foreseeable future.
The differences between Bloom and Oklo Bloom outperformed Oklo for a simple reason: it generates billions of dollars in annual revenue and serves cloud and data center giants like Oracle, CoreWeave, Nebius, and Equinix. Oklo has neither deployed any of its Aurora microreactors nor generated any meaningful revenue yet.
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From 2025 to 2028, analysts expect Bloom's revenue to grow at a 70% CAGR to $9.9 billion, while its adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) increase at a 120% CAGR to $2.9 billion. With a market cap of $69.6 billion, Bloom trades at 17 times this year's sales and 7 times its 2028 sales.
Oklo expects to deploy its first microreactors in 2027 or 2028. If that happens, analysts expect its annual revenue to surge to $55 million in 2028. But with a market cap of $8.6 billion, Oklo already trades at 156 times its 2028 sales. Its adjusted EBITDA is expected to stay negative.
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Why will Bloom remain the better AI-power play? Bloom had a great run over the past two years, but it still isn't overvalued relative to its growth potential. It dominates the SOFC market, serves major customers, and is funded by Brookfield Asset Management (BAM -2.68%), one of the world's largest asset managers.
Oklo will remain a speculative bet until it finally deploys its first commercial reactors. It might have a lot of growth potential, but too much of that optimism is already baked into its stock. Therefore, I'd still prefer to buy Bloom over Oklo in this volatile market.
Leo Sun has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Bloom Energy, Brookfield Asset Management, Equinix, and Oracle. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
The electricity demand from artificial intelligence has created an immense power problem, and nuclear has emerged as one of the best solutions. Hyperscalers need constant, carbon-free electricity to run their data centers. Nuclear developers and providers are now some of the most important AI infrastructure stocks. Here are four companies positioned to be leaders in the AI power boom through 2027 and beyond.
Oklo's awaiting approval One of the most talked-about pure-play small modular reactor (SMR) developers is Oklo (OKLO +0.71%). The company, while technically still pre-revenue, has many agreements in the pipeline. They include a 1.2-gigawatt (GW) system for Meta Platforms in Ohio. Oklo also acquired the radioisotope producer Atomic Alchemy to expand its capabilities beyond selling SMRs.
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Oklo skyrocketed in 2025 on enthusiasm for SMRs and nuclear's role within the AI renaissance. It has since pulled back dramatically. Oklo's stock has slipped more than 35% over the past 12 months, creating a more appealing entry point for opportunistic yet patient investors.
The company isn't expected to produce significant revenue until the end of 2027 or 2028. Oklo has promising technology, but it remains largely unproven and requires full approval from the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Once that hurdle is cleared, the sky is the limit for Oklo.
This stock is best suited for investors with higher risk tolerances and an appetite for near- and intermediate-term volatility.
Constellation Energy dominates On the opposite end of the risk spectrum is Constellation Energy (NASDAQ: CEG), which is already the largest owner and operator of nuclear generation in the U.S. The company has long-term power purchase agreements in place with hyperscalers such as Meta and Microsoft.
Constellation also acquired Calpine earlier this year for $26.6 billion. This move doubled Constellation's footprint to approximately 55 GWs. This further positions the company to capture AI-related demand.
Image source: Getty Images.
Constellation does trade at a premium, but that's because it's very much a leader in the nuclear sector and will be for years to come. Constellation is also far less of a risk compared to smaller businesses such as Oklo. It's suited for income and growth investors alike, as it pays $1.70 per share annually. It's not a high-yielding stock, but it is consistently growing its dividend.
Vistra's EBITDA growth is strong Vistra (VST -0.71%) also has long-term power purchase agreements with hyperscalers and a diversified business that operates in nuclear, natural gas, and retail electricity. Vistra's second-quarter results missed analysts' expectations, but the company still posted 30% growth in Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA compared with the prior year. The company also reaffirmed its guidance for the fiscal year.
Vistra plans to acquire Cogentrix by the end of the year, thereby substantially expanding its natural gas fleet. The acquisition recently received approval from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission.
Vistra's stock has fallen more than 25% over the past 12 months, but the company pays a reasonable quarterly dividend of $0.23 per share. The company's expanding footprint and reasonable price make it a solid buy in the energy sector.
Cameco is the uranium giant that nuclear needs Cameco (CCJ -1.16%) plays an interesting role in the nuclear industry by supplying uranium to these companies. The Canada-based business has long-term contracts to deliver about 230 million pounds of uranium through 2030. It also holds a 49% stake in Westinghouse, a reactor-services giant.
Cameco is fundamentally strong and the second-largest uranium miner in the world, having mined 15% of all uranium in 2025. Momentum behind the stock has pushed it to an incredibly high valuation; however, the company missed expectations in its most recent quarter. Still, Cameco is trading at a premium, and investors should have a longer time horizon to reap the benefits of sustained high nuclear demand.
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Cameco pays a modest dividend of about $0.18 per share in U.S. dollars. As far as the nuclear renaissance goes, Cameco isn't as exciting a growth prospect as some of the others, but its role in the industry is crucial.
Four companies powering the future These four companies are right where they need to be to take advantage of AI's insatiable power needs. Nuclear has to play a significant part in meeting energy demand, and each of these companies plays a different but crucially important role. While Oklo is the most speculative of the four, each has upside potential and many reasons for long-term investors to be optimistic.
One of the most important trends in nuclear energy is the development of small modular reactors (SMRs). Instead of traditional nuclear power plants that take up a lot of space and take a long time to build, SMRs offer a next-generation way to produce nuclear energy. With small modular reactors, nuclear energy can hopefully be produced at lower cost, with more flexible construction, rapid deployment, and enhanced safety.
SMR technology is not yet commercially available. Research and development are still underway. But on Aug. 6, nuclear energy company Oklo (OKLO -4.00%) announced that it has reached "criticality" in its small modular reactor in Texas. That means Oklo's SMR is able to produce a steady energy. According to Bloomberg reporting, Oklo's SMR is the fifth nuclear reactor of its kind to reach this level of capability.
Although a lot of work remains to be done, Oklo's announcement is a good sign that small modular reactors might someday be ready to start producing nuclear energy. Let's look at two nuclear energy exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that might benefit from continued progress in SMR technology -- and see if nuclear ETFs are worth adding to your portfolio.
Image source: Getty Images.
VanEck Uranium and Nuclear ETF (NLR): 4.4% Oklo stock The VanEck Uranium and Nuclear ETF(NLR -0.55%) offers the ability to make a targeted investment in nuclear energy. Along with nuclear power stocks like Oklo, this fund's 28 stock holdings include utilities and companies that provide services to nuclear facilities.
As of this writing, Oklo shares make up about 4.4% of the fund's holdings. Other top stock holdings in the ETF include Constellation Energy (CEG +0.11%) (8.67%), Cameco (CCJ +0.30%) (7.95%), and Public Service Enterprise Group (PEG +0.88%) (6.45%).
In the past five years, the VanEck Uranium and Nuclear ETF has delivered average annual returns (by net asset value) of 18.4%, but the fund has struggled more recently -- its shares are down by about 3.9% in the past year.
NYSEMKT: NLRVanEck ETF Trust - VanEck Uranium And Nuclear ETF
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Global X Uranium ETF (URA): 6.2% Okla stock Another way to buy into the future opportunities of nuclear energy is to invest in the Global X Uranium ETF (URA +0.07%). This fund holds 58 stocks in companies involved in nuclear energy, nuclear component production, and uranium mining.
Okla stock makes up about 6.2% of the fund's assets. Other top holdings include Cameco (22.2% of the fund), Sprott Physical Uranium Trust (SRUUF -0.15%) (6.4%), and NexGen Energy (NXE -0.10%) (6.06%).
The Global X Uranium ETF has outperformed the VanEck fund in the past five years, with average annual returns (by net asset value) of about 19.3%. In the past year, the Global X fund is up about 4.3%.
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Why buy NLR or URA -- or not Oklo's progress in small modular reactors is potentially good news for investors in these two nuclear energy ETFs. If you want to make a targeted investment in the future of nuclear energy without buying individual shares of Oklo stock, the Global X Uranium ETF includes a slightly larger percentage of Oklo stock, with Oklo as one of its top three holdings.
But these nuclear ETFs can be especially risky. Small modular reactors, and the nuclear energy industry as a whole, are not guaranteed to succeed. The SMR technology is still speculative. Nuclear power plants might face some unique delays, regulatory risks, and resistance from neighbors.
And these funds are not cheap to own. The Global X fund charges an expense ratio of 0.69%, and the VanEck fund charges 0.52%. If you are strongly bullish on the future of nuclear power and you want to make a concentrated bet on this technology, these ETFs can offer it. But beware of the risks.
The momentum behind artificial intelligence (AI)-linked nuclear energy stocks hit a brick wall in July, sending high-flying names like Oklo (OKLO +4.34%) into a nose-dive.
Shares of the nuclear energy start-up tumbled 25.8% last month, according to data provided by S&P Global Market Intelligence. By the end of July, the drop had wiped about 80% of the stock's value from its October 2025 peak of $193.84.
For a company promising to fuel the AI build-out with fast-fission reactors, winning important approvals from the Department of Energy (DOE), and securing massive partnerships, the sudden mid-summer fallout left many investors asking where the power went.
Image source: Getty Images.
The Oklo stock sell-off Oklo is building fast-fission nuclear power plants called Aurora powerhouses and is still a pre-revenue company.
The nuclear energy stock didn't fall because the company is falling apart. It fell because investors are demanding proof of execution, especially after the company missed a July 4 deadline of achieving criticality (a nuclear reactor reaching a self-sustaining nuclear fission chain reaction) at its first reactor. That was a deadline set by the DOE.
Instead, on July 23, Oklo received start-up authorization for its Groves Isotope Test Reactor, clearing the way for fuel loading and testing.
The missed deadline coincided with a sell-off across the advanced nuclear space, hitting early stage small and modular reactor developers hardest.
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Shares of Nuscale Power, for instance, fell around 16% in July. In contrast, nuclear energy companies like Constellation Energy and Vistra, which are actually operating large fleetS of nuclear reactors and powering up data centers, logged smaller losses, with Vistra falling only 1% in July. That divergence proves the market wasn't questioning nuclear energy's potential amid the AI boom, but trimming stakes in companies that haven't built anything yet.
The only thing you should know before buying Oklo stock Oklo achieved first criticality at its Groves Isotope Test Reactor on Aug 6, making it the first reactor under the DOE's Reactor Pilot Program to achieve criticality on private land built on a greenfield site from scratch.
Isotopes are chemical elements used for cancer treatment, medical imaging, industrial radiography, and space exploration. Oklo is among the few companies developing a domestic supply chain for isotopes.
Oklo shares rallied after the update, which coincided with its second-quarter earnings release, but seem to be struggling to sustain momentum.
Oklo's Q2 net loss doubled to $48.5 million, with earnings of $0.28 per share missing analysts' estimates by a wide margin. Oklo also raised its full-year cash-use guidance, now expecting to burn $120 million to $150 million in operating activities and $400 million to $500 million in capital spending, both well above prior targets.
Analysts are debating Oklo's costs and cash burn. Analysts from Truist Securities, for instance, just cut the stock's price target to $51 per share from $55 a share.
Oklo doesn't expect to deploy its first Aurora powerhouse before 2028, and is itself calling that target "ambitious", citing a range of "supply chain, construction, macroeconomic, and design complexities."
That's not analyst skepticism. It is the company's own risk estimate, and something anyone who wants to invest in Oklo stock should bear in mind.
