The New Zealand Dollar gains over 0.30% against the US Dollar, poised to test key resistance levels, with the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.5793, slightly below the 0.5800 figure. At the time of writing, the NZD/USD trades at 0.5789, after bouncing off daily lows of 0.5767.
NZD/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlookThe Kiwi Dollar seems to recover during the day, but the overall trend is downwards, until the pair reclaims the May 29 high of 0.5995. Momentum turned bullish as depicted in the Relative Strength Index (RSI), but seems to be fading as the index is about to pierce bearish territory.
As of writing, the NZD/USD is testing key resistance below 0.5800. A breach of the latter will expose the confluence of the 100- and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) at 0.5823/24, followed by the July 21 high at 0.5874. Above this area, the next resistance is the 0.5900, followed by the May 29 high, beneath 0.6000.
On the other hand, if NZD/USD breaches the low of the week (LOW) of 0.5762, it opens the door for further downside. The next key support is the July 13 low of 0.5743, followed by 0.5700. Beneath lies the July 7 high at 0.5672.
NZD/USD Price Chart – Daily
NZD/USD daily chart New Zealand Dollar Price This week The table below shows the percentage change of New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against listed major currencies this week. New Zealand Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.51%0.95%0.92%0.58%-0.22%0.77%1.20%EUR-0.51%0.45%0.35%0.07%-0.73%0.26%0.69%GBP-0.95%-0.45%-0.09%-0.38%-1.17%-0.19%0.28%JPY-0.92%-0.35%0.09%-0.25%-1.09%-0.20%0.38%CAD-0.58%-0.07%0.38%0.25%-0.76%0.05%0.67%AUD0.22%0.73%1.17%1.09%0.76%0.99%1.46%NZD-0.77%-0.26%0.19%0.20%-0.05%-0.99%0.47%CHF-1.20%-0.69%-0.28%-0.38%-0.67%-1.46%-0.47% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the New Zealand Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent NZD (base)/USD (quote).
As we all know, the Iran war is severely restricting the flow of Crude Oil through the Strait of Hormuz.
Saudi Arabia started to send more tankers out via the Red Sea, but now, we have a completely different set of problems in the Bab al-Mandab Strait, which is driving crude even higher.
In today’s Market Outlook, let’s take a look at Forex trading on EURNZD, NZDUSD, AUDUSD, AUDNZD, AUDCAD, Silver, XAGUSD, Gold, XAUUSD, WTI, and Brent Crude Oil.
So, the question for traders is, “when can we go short on WTI and Brent CFDs and watch price action fall to normal levels?”
There is no easy answer to this question, but the current US administration is under enormous pressure to end the war, but that may mean nothing in the short term.
This has caused more geopolitical uncertainty, and investors tested the $4,000 level of support on gold, with price heading up past $4,100 this week.
Silver followed gold, as it has been doing for months.
On the technical side, price action has broken through the upper trend line that we have been following for months.
On the weekly charts, we see falling wedges, which are almost always bullish patterns.
But keep in mind, these are weekly charts, so this may take a long time to play out.
This morning we saw Australian Employment Figures way higher than analysts’ expectations, and look what happened.
If we follow the rules of the News Catalyst Fade, we want to trade with the trend or within the range.
We note that in almost every case, the news drove price action WITH the trade buy; we can still look for reversals on other time frames.
We will keep an eye on AUDUSD, for example, where price is at a key level of resistance.
Also on AUDNZD, we see price at a key level with an overbought stochastic oscillator.
And, on AUDCAD, we see a strong ranging market with price at an upper trend line and an overbought stochastic oscillator.
Please feel free to check all other AUD pairs.
We see that NZD has been the strongest currency this month, but we also see that this may be changing.
For example, on NZDUSD, we see a pullback through the lower trend line, but we also see a falling wedge and an oversold stochastic oscillator.
Inflation in New Zealand is not under control, so we will keep an eye on all NZD pairs.
On EURNZD, we see the pullback as well, but with price action forming a rising wedge, and we will keep an eye on this as well.
And tomorrow’s ECB Interest Rate decision, so keep an eye on these and all EUR pairs.
That’s all for now.
CFDs and FX are leveraged products, and your capital may be at risk.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) extends losses for the third consecutive day against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, with the NZD/USD pair dipping below 0.5800, after being rejected at the 0.5875 area earlier in the week. The Kiwi Dollar is giving away previous gains as higher Oil prices and concerns about the escalation of the Middle East conflict have offset the positive impact of the hawkish Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) monetary policy stance.
The dismal market mood is finally taking a toll on the risk-sensitive Kiwi, as tensions in the Middle East remain high and reports of attacks on vessels sailing through the Red Sea raise concerns that the conflict might extend through the region, boosting fears of disruptions in Oil supply.
Against this background, the barrel of Brent Oil has crossed the $90 line for the first time in the last six weeks. This has prompted investors to shift their focus from inflation to the negative impact on economic growth of another energy shock, which will, ultimately, limit the central bank’s margin to tighten its monetary policy.
Technical Analysis: Key support is at the 0.5750 area
NZD/USD trades just below 0.5800, with bears gathering pace as intraday momentum indicators tread further within negative territory. The 4-hour Relative Strength Index (14) has retreated to 35, approaching oversold levels, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains slightly negative, altogether hinting at waning downside momentum but not yet at a clear reversal.
The pair might find some support at previous resistance around 0.5790 (July 10, 13 highs), although the key support area lies at the confluence of the immediate trendline support and the July 13 low, in the area of 0.5750. A confirmation below here would put bears in control, and bring the July 6 and 8 lows, around 0.5675, into focus.
Upside attempts, on the contrary, have been contained below 0.5825 on Thursday, while the key resistance area is in the area between the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the June selloff, at 0.5855, and Tuesday's high, at the mentioned 0.5875, which has capped bulls several times during the current month.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
New Zealand Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against listed major currencies today. New Zealand Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.08%0.02%0.11%-0.13%-0.08%0.26%0.05%EUR0.08%0.11%0.21%-0.05%0.00%0.36%0.13%GBP-0.02%-0.11%0.11%-0.17%-0.11%0.25%0.02%JPY-0.11%-0.21%-0.11%-0.25%-0.20%0.13%-0.08%CAD0.13%0.05%0.17%0.25%0.04%0.39%0.16%AUD0.08%-0.00%0.11%0.20%-0.04%0.36%0.16%NZD-0.26%-0.36%-0.25%-0.13%-0.39%-0.36%-0.24%CHF-0.05%-0.13%-0.02%0.08%-0.16%-0.16%0.24% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the New Zealand Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent NZD (base)/USD (quote).
The kiwi has strengthened meaningfully against most peers this month. However, against the US dollar specifically, NZD/USD remains well below its 2026 highs, trading in the mid-0.58 area versus January’s peak near 0.6075.
New Zealand’s Q2 inflation data, released this week, blew past expectations: annual CPI accelerated to 4.1%, above both forecasts and the RBNZ’s own 3.9% projection, reinforcing the case for further tightening after the central bank’s surprise hike to 2.50% earlier in July—its first in over three years.
The dollar side of the equation remains the real wildcard. June’s payrolls report badly missed expectations, coming in at just 57,000, with prior months revised sharply lower, undercutting the Fed’s near-term tightening case despite still-sticky core inflation near 2.9%. Markets currently assign roughly even odds to a September hike, leaving NZD/USD’s next move hostage to next week’s Fed decision and any further escalation in Middle East tensions.
NZD/USD Technical Analysis
As the 4-hour chart shows, NZD/USD has arrived at a genuinely pivotal zone around 0.5850, a level that has repeatedly flipped between support and resistance throughout the year. Currently acting as resistance, this area has become the focal point of a tug-of-war that has now played out for several sessions.
Bullish Scenario After bouncing from the medium-term support at 0.5600–0.5650, price staged a decisive recovery, breaking above the 200-period EMA and successfully retesting it as new support, all while forming a clear pattern of higher highs and higher lows. This strength has been reinforced by supportive central bank rhetoric and macro data favoring the kiwi. A confirmed break above 0.5850, coinciding with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the late-June decline, would open the path toward the next resistance and psychological level at 0.6000.
Bearish Scenario A rejection at this critical zone, however, would hand momentum back to sellers, sending price first toward a retest of the 200-period EMA near 0.5781. A break below that level would expose the well-defended 0.5600 support once again.
With the Fed decision looming and price sitting at such a decisive technical juncture, NZD/USD looks set for a significant move next week. Can the kiwi withstand the coming dollar volatility?
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XAUUSD (the Gold) saw a lift as the yellow metal moved away from the critical 4000 support.
As the market remains volatile, with all eyes on Iran’s next move, prices look to break the 4100 level. Only a break above 4100, the top range of the current spike, might put the precious metal back on track towards 4140. Otherwise, a fall back towards the fresh support of 4000 would open the door to 3960.
USDCAD steadily climbing higher
The Canadian dollar attempts to turn around a potential fightback from the greenback.
The pair remains under pressure, as an 80-pip move higher has hit resistance after a rejection at 1.4080. The buy side is attempting to continue the drive, which saw a bounce from the 1.4000 region. A break past the current resistance at 1.4080 could see a continuation, with 1.4150 the next target for buyers. NZDUSD another higher high
The American dollar looks to fight back against most of its competitors as sentiment shifts again.
The price has been moving higher after a continuous upshift in price action for the majority of this month. 0.5820 is the latest support, and its breach would trigger a reversal of liquidation and make 0.5760 the next target. 0.5900 is fresh resistance, as an overbought RSI leads to a bearish divergence.
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Headline inflation beats, underlying pressures easing Tradables prices undershoot RBNZ's forecast September RBNZ hike likely, longer-term pricing looks excessive NZD/USD bulls retain technical advantage above support AUD/NZD breakdown keeps sellers firmly in control A beat, but with important caveats New Zealand consumer prices rose 1.5% in the June quarter, lifting the annual inflation rate to 4.1%. While that was above the 4.0% increase expected by economists, it fell just short of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's 4.2% forecast released in May.
That suggests inflation remains uncomfortably high and is likely to keep the RBNZ on course to tighten policy further. However, the underlying details were more encouraging, with the broadest measure of core inflation easing further and domestic price pressures evolving broadly as the central bank had anticipated.
The composition of the report was arguably more important than the headline. While annual inflation accelerated, much of the increase reflected higher tradeable prices, which are influenced by developments offshore rather than domestic demand.
Source: FOREX.com, RBNZ, StatsNZ
Tradeable inflation accelerated to 4.9% over the year, driven largely by a 27.5% jump in petrol prices and a 71.0% surge in other vehicle fuels and lubricants. However, that was well below the RBNZ's 5.6% forecast, explaining why headline inflation also undershot the central bank's expectations.
By contrast, non-tradeable inflation, which is viewed as a better gauge of domestically generated price pressures, eased to 3.4% and matched the RBNZ's forecast. Electricity and local authority rates provided the largest upward pressure, while lower real estate services prices helped offset some of the increase.
The broadest measure of underlying inflation, CPI excluding the food group, household energy subgroup and vehicle fuels, also continued to ease, slipping to 2.5% from 2.6%. While it remains in the upper half of the RBNZ's 1–3% target band, the continued moderation suggests underlying inflation pressures are still moving in the right direction rather than becoming more entrenched.
Traders should now watch the release of the RBNZ's Sectoral Factor Model at 3pm Wellington time. The measure, which strips out temporary price movements to provide another gauge of underlying inflation, printed at 2.7% in the March quarter and could influence moves in New Zealand financial markets should it deliver a meaningful surprise.
What it means for the RBNZ
Source: Bloomberg
When all said and done, today's report is unlikely to materially alter the RBNZ's near-term thinking. Inflation remains above target and the central bank has already adopted an explicit tightening bias. Another 25 basis point increase in September still looks very likely and is close to fully priced, with the risk of a second move by October also deemed slightly more likely than not ahead of November's general election.
Further out, though, market pricing looks far too punchy. Overnight index swaps continue to imply close to five additional quarter-point increases by May next year, taking the OCR to around 3.75%.
That profile looks too aggressive given the broader economic backdrop. While inflation remains high, underlying price pressures continue to ease and there is still ample slack in the labour market, with little evidence that wage growth is accelerating in a way that would warrant taking policy deep into restrictive territory.
The next major test for that view will come on 13 August, when the RBNZ releases its latest Survey of Expectations. Of particular interest will be the two-year inflation expectations measure, which climbed to 2.53% in May from 2.37% previously.
Another meaningful acceleration would strengthen the case for additional tightening, potentially even a 50 basis point move, which can't be ruled out given some of the hawkish rhetoric from external members of the Monetary Policy Committee. But if inflation expectations fail to accelerate again, it would cast doubt on the degree of tightening currently priced into the OIS curve.
At face value, today's report may be interpreted as hawkish given headline inflation exceeded economists' forecasts. I'm not convinced that's the right read. The underlying detail tells a different story, particularly with the broadest measure of core inflation continuing to ease and tradables inflation coming in well below the RBNZ's own forecast.
That's just one of several factors to consider when assessing directional risk for the Kiwi dollar. While domestic rates remain an important driver, recent price action has also become increasingly sensitive to broader risk appetite and changes in US interest rate expectations. Starting with NZD/USD, here's how the technical picture stacks up.
The battleground for Kiwi bulls
Source: TradingView
The RBNZ's hawkish tilt has helped support NZD/USD over recent weeks, allowing the pair to reclaim a cluster of key medium and long-term moving averages.
For now, though, it's a game of ping-pong. Buyers continue to emerge on dips towards the 100-day moving average, while rallies are being capped ahead of resistance at 0.5860. That's the initial range to watch.
The oscillators continue to favour the bulls. RSI (14) remains comfortably above the neutral 50 level at 63, while MACD has crossed above its signal line and remains in positive territory.
Should the pair break decisively above 0.5860, the next upside level to watch is 0.5920, an area that repeatedly acted as both support and resistance during April, May and June. Above that, attention shifts to 0.5992, the double top established earlier this year.
On the downside, initial support is provided by the 100, 200 and 50-day moving averages, along with horizontal support at 0.5796, another level that has repeatedly acted as both support and resistance in recent weeks. A break beneath the latter could open the door for a retracement towards 0.5747, with 0.5724 and the uptrend from the June lows the next levels to watch.
Breakdown keeps bears in control
Source: TradingView
As flagged earlier this month, AUD/NZD has broken below the uptrend from the June 2025 lows, with the pair also slipping beneath the 50 and 100-day moving averages. Along the way, it took out support at 1.2053 and 1.2000 before finding buyers at 1.1950.
For now, the pair is stuck in a narrow range between 1.2000 and 1.1950. We did see a bullish engulfing candle print on Monday following renewed upside in energy prices as the conflict in the Middle East escalated. However, that has not generated follow-through buying, with rallies continuing to stall ahead of 1.2000.
The message from the oscillators remains bearish. RSI (14) continues to set lower highs and sits well below the neutral 50 level at 33. That bearish message is being reinforced by MACD, which remains below its signal line and in negative territory.
Selling rallies and downside breaks remains the preferred strategy. Should the pair break decisively beneath 1.1950, there is little in the way of technical support until the 200-day moving average at 1.1835, followed by 1.1797, former resistance before February's upside breakout.
Should the pair reclaim 1.2000, the next upside levels to watch are 1.2053, followed by the confluence of the 100-day moving average and resistance at 1.2115. For now, though, selling rallies and downside breaks remains the preferred strategy.
From a fundamental perspective, with New Zealand's inflation report now out of the way, attention will quickly shift to Australia's labour force report on Thursday. Alongside broader risk sentiment, the release is likely to be influential on markets' assessment of the directional risks for the RBA cash rate moving forward.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) resumed its broader bullish trend against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, following a mild pullback over the previous two trading days. Bulls are pushing against the resistance area between 0.5860 and 0.5865, so far unaffected by the risk-off mood amid the hostilities in Iran.
The Kiwi Dollar has been drawing support from the favourable monetary policy divergence between the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). New Zealand’s central bank hiked interest rates earlier in July and hinted at further tightening in the coming months, while, in the US, the soft inflation figures seen last week have dampened hopes of a rate hike in the near term.
This, so far, is offsetting the negative impact on the risk-sensitive Kiwi from the escalating tensions between the US and Iran and the surging Crude Oil prices.
Technical Analysis: Indicators hint at an overstretched rally
NZD/USD trades at 0.5862, holding a constructive near-term bias as it clings to gains above the reclaimed ascending trend-line support. The 4-hour Relative Strength Index (14), near 70, shows overbought conditions, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has started to soften, hinting that upside strength might be losing momentum.
On the topside, bulls are pushing against the mentioned resistance area ahead of 0.5865 (June 15, July 15 highs). Further up, a previous support-turned-resistance, around 0.5910 (June 1 low), looks a plausible target.
A bearish reaction, on the contrary, is likely to be tested at the trendline support, now around 0.5835, ahead of Friday's low at 0.5825. A deeper pullback might look for support at the July 10 and 13 highs, just below 0.5800.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
US Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.04%-0.19%-0.02%-0.05%-0.26%-0.27%-0.09%EUR0.04%-0.12%0.02%-0.02%-0.21%-0.25%-0.05%GBP0.19%0.12%0.15%0.10%-0.10%-0.12%0.04%JPY0.02%-0.02%-0.15%-0.02%-0.24%-0.22%-0.09%CAD0.05%0.02%-0.10%0.02%-0.21%-0.19%-0.07%AUD0.26%0.21%0.10%0.24%0.21%0.00%0.18%NZD0.27%0.25%0.12%0.22%0.19%-0.01%0.14%CHF0.09%0.05%-0.04%0.09%0.07%-0.18%-0.14% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
NZD/USD fluctuates between minor gains and losses on Thursday as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) hawkish stance supports the Kiwi, while a stronger US Dollar (USD) caps the upside. At the time of writing, the pair trades around 0.5842 after climbing to a one-month high earlier this week.
The Greenback is regaining its footing after a two-day decline triggered by softer-than-expected US inflation data. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, trades around 100.70 after falling to 100.35 on Wednesday, its lowest level since June 18.
From a technical perspective, NZD/USD holds above the 50-day, 100-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), clustered between 0.5807 and 0.5831, supporting a constructive near-term outlook.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 63, indicating bullish momentum without reaching overbought territory. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains above zero, suggesting that buyers retain the upper hand.
On the downside, immediate support lies at the 100-day SMA of 0.5831, followed by the 200-day SMA at 0.5819 and the 50-day SMA at 0.5807. Below these levels, the horizontal supports at 0.5770 and 0.5700 could come into play.
On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the horizontal barrier near 0.5870. A sustained break above this level could open the door to additional gains.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
New Zealand Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against listed major currencies today. New Zealand Dollar was the strongest against the British Pound.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.18%0.46%0.15%-0.03%0.02%0.10%0.34%EUR-0.18%0.28%-0.02%-0.19%-0.08%-0.06%0.16%GBP-0.46%-0.28%-0.28%-0.46%-0.37%-0.33%-0.10%JPY-0.15%0.02%0.28%-0.19%-0.05%-0.04%0.19%CAD0.03%0.19%0.46%0.19%0.13%0.15%0.37%AUD-0.02%0.08%0.37%0.05%-0.13%0.04%0.23%NZD-0.10%0.06%0.33%0.04%-0.15%-0.04%0.21%CHF-0.34%-0.16%0.10%-0.19%-0.37%-0.23%-0.21% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the New Zealand Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent NZD (base)/USD (quote).
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) clings to Tuesday’s gains around 0.5820 during the European trading session on Wednesday. The Kiwi pair reflects strength in a risk-on market environment, driven by easing fears of Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hikes this year.
In the European trade, S&P 500 futures trade 0.25% higher around 7,563, indicating strong demand for riskier assets.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, the odds of the Fed raising interest rates in the policy meeting this month have eased to 16.6% from 31% seen last week.
Market participants have scaled back hawkish Fed bets as the United States (US) inflation cooled down at a faster-than-expected pace in June.
Meanwhile, investors await the US Producer Price Index (PPI) data for June, which will be published at 12:30 GMT. Ahead of the US producer inflation data, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades marginally higher to near 101.00 after recovering early losses.
NZD/USD technical analysis
NZD/USD trades marginally higher at around 0.5820. The pair has edged back above the 50.00% Fibonacci retracement at 0.5810 while holding over the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 0.5746, which together hint at a constructive near-term tone.
A rising Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 60.8 reinforces improving bullish momentum, though prices are still capped by the 61.80% retracement at 0.5853 just overhead.
On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the 61.80% Fibonacci retracement at 0.5853, followed by the 78.60% retracement at 0.5915, with the recent swing high at the 100.00% level of 0.5994 acting as a stronger barrier if gains extend. On the downside, initial support is seen at the reclaimed 50.00% retracement at 0.5810, ahead of a minor floor around the 38.20% level at 0.5766 and the 20-day EMA at 0.5746, while deeper declines would expose the 23.60% retracement at 0.5712 and the structural anchor near 0.5625.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Risk sentiment FAQs In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest.
Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit.
The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity.
The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.
The NZD/USD pair holds steady above the 0.5800 mark through the early European session on Wednesday and, for now, seems to have stalled the previous day's late pullback from a nearly one-month high, around the 0.5845 zone. The latter also marks a confluence hurdle – comprising the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the May-June downfall – and should act as a key pivotal point for short-term traders.
Looking at the broader picture, the NZD/USD pair now seems to have found acceptance above the 50% retracement level and seems poised to extend the recent recovery from the 0.5625 area, or the year-to-date low touched in June. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is in positive territory, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near 60. This validates the near-term constructive outlook and backs the case for additional gains.
That said, bulls might still need to wait for a sustained move beyond the 0.5845 confluence hurdle before placing fresh bets, as escalating US-Iran tensions might continue to act as a tailwind for the US Dollar (USD). Nevertheless, a break above the said hurdle would open the way toward the 61.8% retracement at 0.5853, with stronger resistance seen higher at 0.5915 and the 0.5995 swing high, where the broader bearish bias would start to fade if reclaimed.
On the downside, initial support emerges at the 50% retracement near 0.5809, ahead of the 38.2% Fibo. level at 0.5765 and deeper cushions at 0.5711 and 0.5623. The downside, however, seems limited in the wake of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) hawkish tilt. Furthermore, receding bets for a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike this year might keep USD bulls on the back foot, suggesting that the path of least resistance for the NZD/USD pair is to the upside.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
NZD/USD daily chart
US Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.08%-0.15%-0.02%-0.07%-0.16%-0.04%-0.00%EUR0.08%-0.12%0.06%0.00%-0.13%-0.02%0.07%GBP0.15%0.12%0.15%0.11%-0.01%0.09%0.18%JPY0.02%-0.06%-0.15%-0.05%-0.15%-0.04%-0.00%CAD0.07%-0.00%-0.11%0.05%-0.10%-0.04%0.06%AUD0.16%0.13%0.01%0.15%0.10%0.08%0.14%NZD0.04%0.02%-0.09%0.04%0.04%-0.08%0.08%CHF0.00%-0.07%-0.18%0.00%-0.06%-0.14%-0.08% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
The New Zealand Dollar extended its rally, registering solid gains versus the US Dollar after the latest US inflation report, which tempered speculation of a Fed rate hike and trimmed investors' bets by half. At the time of writing, the NZD/USD is trading at 0.5809, up by more than 1%.
NZD/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlookThe NZD/USD trend is downwards, with the pair still trading below the 50- and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) at around 0.5810-0.5819. Earlier, the pair reached a daily high of 0.5843, threatening to decisively clear the 200-day SMA, but sellers stepped in, driving spot prices towards the 0.5800 figure.
From a momentum standpoint, buyers are gaining traction. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) turned bullish on July 9, but the price action consolidated around 0.5750 for three days before the next leg up to 0.5800.
If the NZD/USD clears the confluence of the 50- and 200-day SMAs, this opens the path to challenge the 100-day SMA at 0.5834. A breach of the latter will expose the March 19 daily high at 0.5892, ahead of 0.5900. On further strength, the next area of interest would be the February 26 high at 0.6014.
In a bearish scenario, the NZD/USD must clear the low of the day (LOD) at 0.5744, which could exacerbate a drop towards the 0.5700 level. Below this, the next area of demand is the July 8 daily low at 0.5672.
NZD/USD Price Chart — Daily
NZD/USD daily chart New Zealand Dollar Price This week The table below shows the percentage change of New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against listed major currencies this week. New Zealand Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.16%-0.04%0.28%-0.68%-0.40%-0.85%0.19%EUR0.16%0.12%0.44%-0.54%-0.30%-0.70%0.36%GBP0.04%-0.12%0.30%-0.62%-0.38%-0.81%0.29%JPY-0.28%-0.44%-0.30%-1.04%-0.68%-1.17%-0.12%CAD0.68%0.54%0.62%1.04%0.38%-0.13%0.94%AUD0.40%0.30%0.38%0.68%-0.38%-0.41%0.55%NZD0.85%0.70%0.81%1.17%0.13%0.41%1.11%CHF-0.19%-0.36%-0.29%0.12%-0.94%-0.55%-1.11% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the New Zealand Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent NZD (base)/USD (quote).
EURUSD (The euro) continues to retreat after failing to break back above the recent high, which saw prices push towards a fresh peak.
The pair bounced off the support zone at 1.1380 as the RSI bounced away from the oversold region. Further resistance at the 1.1460 region would send the euro lower, breaking the previous support zone. A successful bounce and a close below 1.1380 would commit more sellers and push the pair towards 1.1300.
NZDUSD tests key resistance area
The New Zealand dollar attempts to continue its progression as the pair jumps over 100 pips in recent sessions.
The price was moving towards the previous swing high at 0.5800, which, if broken, opens another 50-pip jump. Still, the recent bounce could be a sign of bearish pressure building since the market open. A decisive break below 0.5700 would force the remaining buyers out and open the door to a test at the previous swing low of 0.5660. US30 recapturing the recent high
The Dow steadies as traders await more news of a jump in tech stocks, and then the next step in the Middle Eastern conflcit.
A close above the daily resistance of 53000 would help bulls regain control of the direction. A confirmation past this level would lead to the index gearing up for another attempt at a record high above 53400. The recent dip at 52200 is the first support, and 51600 is the bulls’ second layer of defence. Market Strategist at Orbex David Kindley is a renowned fundamental analyst with over 10 years of trading experience in the financial markets. With a keen eye for macroeconomics and a special focus on trading psychology, David is passionate about helping everyday investors make informed trading decisions through his thorough research and analysis.
The NZD/USD pair catches aggressive bids during the Asian session on Tuesday and jumps to a nearly four-week top in the last hour amid a combination of supporting factors.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) strengthens as hawkish comments from Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Chief Economist Paul Conway raised the prospect of further interest rate hikes. The US Dollar (USD), on the other hand, pauses a two-day rally as bulls opt to wait for the release of the latest US consumer inflation figures and US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh's testimony. This, in turn, provides a goodish lift to the NZD/USD pair and backs the case for additional gains.
From a technical perspective, spot prices now seem to have found acceptance above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the May-June downfall. Moreover, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has turned positive with the line advancing above zero, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around 57, hinting at improving momentum. That said, it will still be prudent to wait for a move beyond the 0.5810-0.5820 confluence before placing fresh bullish bets.
The said area comprises the 50% retracement level and the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), above which the NZD/USD pair could aim to test the 61.8% Fibo. level at 0.5853. The latter reinforces a broader cap ahead of 0.5914 and 0.5992. On the flip side, immediate support is seen at the 38.2% retracement at 0.5767, ahead of the 23.6% level at 0.5714, while a deeper pullback would expose the recent swing low area near the 0.5628 region.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
NZD/USD daily chart
New Zealand Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against listed major currencies today. New Zealand Dollar was the strongest against the US Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.09%-0.10%-0.10%-0.18%-0.19%-0.64%-0.12%EUR0.09%-0.01%0.00%-0.09%-0.11%-0.54%-0.03%GBP0.10%0.01%0.02%-0.06%-0.08%-0.53%-0.02%JPY0.10%0.00%-0.02%-0.08%-0.12%-0.56%-0.05%CAD0.18%0.09%0.06%0.08%-0.03%-0.46%0.05%AUD0.19%0.11%0.08%0.12%0.03%-0.43%0.09%NZD0.64%0.54%0.53%0.56%0.46%0.43%0.51%CHF0.12%0.03%0.02%0.05%-0.05%-0.09%-0.51% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the New Zealand Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent NZD (base)/USD (quote).
The New Zealand Dollar recoiled during Monday’s North American session, down 0.12%, as the Greenback posted gains versus most G8 FX currencies amid rising geopolitical tensions and hawkish comments from a Fed Governor. The NZD/USD trades at 0.5754, down from daily highs of 0.5789.
NZD/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlookThe Kiwi Dollar remains downward biased, with the pair standing below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.5819, for the twenty-fifth consecutive trading day. This is despite the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) raising rates and opening the door to further tightening.
Momentum, as measured by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), suggests that buyers are in charge, though, as of writing, it signals further consolidation ahead.
For a bearish continuation, the NZD/USD must drop below the psychological 0.5700 figure. Below this area lies the July 8 low of 0.5672, followed by 0.5650. Once hurdled, the next stop is the 0.5600 milestone.
Upwards, the first resistance is the July 10 daily high at 0.5794, ahead of 0.5800. Above this level lies the confluence of the 50- and 200-day SMAs at around 0.5812-0.5819, respectively, followed by the 100-day SMA at 0.5835 and by the 0.5850 mark.
NZD/USD Price Chart - Daily
NZD/USD daily chart New Zealand Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against listed major currencies today. New Zealand Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.25%0.33%0.42%-0.00%0.47%0.13%0.66%EUR-0.25%0.08%0.17%-0.26%0.25%-0.09%0.42%GBP-0.33%-0.08%0.09%-0.34%0.17%-0.15%0.38%JPY-0.42%-0.17%-0.09%-0.43%0.05%-0.25%0.28%CAD0.00%0.26%0.34%0.43%0.50%0.21%0.73%AUD-0.47%-0.25%-0.17%-0.05%-0.50%-0.28%0.25%NZD-0.13%0.09%0.15%0.25%-0.21%0.28%0.53%CHF-0.66%-0.42%-0.38%-0.28%-0.73%-0.25%-0.53% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the New Zealand Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent NZD (base)/USD (quote).
NZD/USD remains on the front foot on Friday and is heading for a second consecutive weekly gain after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) raised the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points (bps) on Wednesday and signaled that further policy tightening may be needed, boosting the New Zealand Dollar (NZD).
At the time of writing, the pair is trading around 0.5771 after hitting an intraday high of 0.5794, its highest level since June 18.
From a technical perspective, NZD/USD has been recovering after bottoming at 0.5626 in late June, its lowest level since November 2025. The latest leg higher pushed NZD/USD above the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.5717, reinforcing the bullish near-term outlook.
Momentum has also improved, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) climbing above the neutral 50 threshold after recovering from near-oversold territory. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram remains in positive territory, suggesting bearish momentum is fading rather than confirming a sustained bullish reversal, as NZD/USD continues to trade below a cluster of key moving averages.
On the topside, initial resistance emerges at the psychological 0.5800 mark, closely aligning with the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.5815, followed by the 200-day SMA at 0.5820 and the 100-day SMA at 0.5838.
A decisive break above these levels could pave the way for a move toward the horizontal resistance levels at 0.5900 and 0.6000.
On the downside, immediate support lies at the 21-day SMA at 0.5718. A move back below this level would weaken the near-term bullish bias and bring the late-June low of 0.5626 back into focus.
New Zealand Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against listed major currencies today. New Zealand Dollar was the strongest against the US Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.06%-0.09%-0.66%-0.24%-0.26%-0.30%-0.06%EUR0.06%-0.03%-0.55%-0.18%-0.21%-0.25%0.00%GBP0.09%0.03%-0.54%-0.15%-0.18%-0.21%0.02%JPY0.66%0.55%0.54%0.41%0.39%0.32%0.57%CAD0.24%0.18%0.15%-0.41%-0.03%-0.07%0.17%AUD0.26%0.21%0.18%-0.39%0.03%-0.05%0.17%NZD0.30%0.25%0.21%-0.32%0.07%0.05%0.23%CHF0.06%-0.01%-0.02%-0.57%-0.17%-0.17%-0.23% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the New Zealand Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent NZD (base)/USD (quote).
USDJPY (The yen) bounced against the dollar after finding resistance at the 162.75 level.
• The latest move above 162.50 has prompted some buyers to cover and could pave the way for a bearish continuation.
• A move below 162.00 would confirm the downward skew and attract more bears in the hope of a further extension.
• 161.60 is the next target lower, which could again test the firm double bottom at 160.80.
NZDUSD propels higher
The New Zealand dollar kept its composure after jumping over 100 pips in yesterday’s session.
• The pair moved higher as the recent greenback sell-off signalled an ongoing rhetoric that the Fed will cut rates soon.
• 0.5700 is the closest support to see if there is any renewed interest in the greenback.
• On the flip side, a break above 0.5780 would give the Kiwi an extension, for a charge towards the recent peak at 0.5860.
US30 finds support
The Dow remains buoyant as prices attempt to recover as many losses as possible.
• Since a confirmation bounce around 52200, a slight increase in value followed by stiff consolidation has seen a top at 52600.
• A move past the said price will provide the next bullish signal as buyers hope for a test back towards 53000.
• On the downside, 52200 is firm support, and 52000 is the bulls’ second layer of defence.
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Market Strategist at Orbex David Kindley is a renowned fundamental analyst with over 10 years of trading experience in the financial markets. With a keen eye for macroeconomics and a special focus on trading psychology, David is passionate about helping everyday investors make informed trading decisions through his thorough research and analysis.
The NZD/USD pair trades in positive territory around 0.5775 during the early European session on Friday. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) gathers strength to its strongest level in three weeks against the US Dollar (USD) on a hawkish rate hike from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ).
On Wednesday, the RBNZ raised the key interest rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 2.50% and signaled the potential for more hikes this year. RBNZ govorner Anna Breman said that the geopolitical environment is still highly uncertain, but the domestic economy has shown a lot of resilience in the past few months despite the fuel shock.
Traders are fully pricing two additional, quarter-point rate hikes from the New Zealand central bank through December, according to Bloomberg. That’s up from pricing a 36% chance the day before RBNZ’s meeting, the data showed.
Technical Analysis:In the daily chart, NZD/USD maintains a capped tone as it holds below the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the upper Bollinger Band. The pair, however, trades above the Bollinger middle band around 0.5712, suggesting nearby downside support, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 55 hints that the latest bounce carries modest positive momentum but not yet enough to overturn the broader downside bias.
On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the upper Bollinger Band around 0.5825, with the 100-day SMA just above at 0.5840 forming a tight supply cluster that would need to be reclaimed to ease bearish pressure. On the downside, immediate support is aligned with the recent price pivot around 0.5770, followed by the Bollinger middle band near 0.5712 and then the lower band around 0.5601, where a break would expose a deeper extension of the prevailing downtrend.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
New Zealand Dollar FAQs The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair.
Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
NZDUSD currency pair recently reversed up from the support zone between the long-term support level 0.5600 (which stopped the strong downtrend d in November) and the lower daily Bollinger Band.
The upward reversal from this support zone started the active medium-term impulse sequence (3).
NZDUSD currency pair can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 0.5780 (former support from the start of June).
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Manufacturing survey delivers blockbuster upside surprise RBNZ tightening cycle gains fresh credibility RBA rate expectations continue to unwind AUD/NZD technical breakdown gains momentum NZD/USD breakout shifts focus higher New Zealand may be on holiday, but the Kiwi dollar certainly wasn't on Thursday. It topped the G10 FX leaderboard after strong data reinforced the RBNZ's message from earlier this week that further rate hikes are likely.
Factory floor fires up The catalyst for the outperformance was a blockbuster BNZ PMI. The headline index surged to 59.7 in June, its highest reading since July 2021. Excluding the pandemic rebound, it was the strongest result since May 2017, underpinned by a sharp lift in new orders, production, deliveries and employment. Respondents reported stronger sales, growing order books and renewed confidence, outweighing concerns about Middle East tensions and cost-of-living pressures.
A hawkish roadmap The survey's release was timely, arriving just days after the RBNZ lifted its cash rate to 2.5%, the first increase of a new tightening cycle. Policymakers retained a hawkish bias, saying "some further reduction in monetary stimulus is likely to be required" to return inflation sustainably to the 2% target midpoint.
Speaking after the decision, RBNZ Governor Anna Breman said they were "feeling our way" as they sought to identify New Zealand's neutral cash rate, the level where it is neither stimulatory nor restrictive on economic activity. She suggested it may sit somewhere between 2.5% and 3.5%, implying 3% may be the Bank's initial destination for policy.
Mind the gap That’s important because relative rate expectations have long been one of the key macro drivers for AUD/NZD, making recent shifts in pricing on either side of the Tasman particularly important.
Source: Bloomberg
While the RBNZ has just embarked on a fresh tightening cycle, the RBA is likely much closer to the end of its own, or perhaps already there, after lifting its cash rate three times, unwinding the easing conducted in 2025. Although it has left the door open to further increases, softer domestic economic data and easing energy prices have seen markets scale back expectations for additional tightening. Just a few months ago, traders were flirting with the idea that the cash rate may need to near 5%. Today, there's only around an even chance of another 25 basis point increase to 4.60%.
Source: Tradingview
Thursday's data saw the Australia-New Zealand two-year yield spread compress by 14 basis points, the largest one-day decline since March 9. While the catalyst was New Zealand's stronger-than-expected manufacturing PMI, the broader narrowing in spreads has been driven just as much by the steady unwinding of hawkish RBA pricing over recent months.
Connecting the dots The rates relationship is evident in the correlation matrix below, with Australia-New Zealand two-year yield spreads maintaining a consistently positive correlation with AUD/NZD across the past week, month and quarter.
Source: Tradingview
Energy prices have also been somewhat influential. While both Australia and New Zealand are heavily reliant on imported petroleum, Australia is also one of the world's largest LNG exporters. It's perhaps no surprise then that AUD/NZD has also maintained a strong positive correlation with LNG prices over the past month, particularly over the past week, reflecting the terms of trade impact of fluctuations in gas prices on the Australian dollar.
AUD/NZD trendline snaps
Source: Tradingview
It's not only fundamentals that are pointing to the risk of Kiwi outperformance against the Australian dollar, with the technical picture increasingly aligning with that view. Thursday saw AUD/NZD break below its June 2025 uptrend, doing so emphatically while also slicing through the 100-day moving average, a level it had remained above since July last year.
The breakdown follows the formation of a series of lower highs and the completion of what resembles an evening star bearish reversal after the pair spent several sessions flirting with the 50-day moving average earlier this week. The question now is whether Thursday's breakdown attracts another wave of selling on Friday.
The immediate focus is the June 10 low at 1.2053. Should that give way, attention shifts to 1.2000, a level that's repeatedly acted as both support and resistance in recent months, followed by 1.1950. Below that sits the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the May 2025-June 2026 bull move, a level the pair also spent considerable time trading around back in March. The 200-day moving average at 1.1813, sitting just above the former breakout level at 1.1797, shapes as a more ambitious downside target.
Overhead, the broken June 2025 uptrend and 100-day moving average, located just below 1.2100, combine with horizontal resistance at 1.2115 to create an important resistance zone should buyers attempt to regain control.
Momentum indicators continue to favour the bears. RSI (14) is trending lower below 50 without yet reaching oversold territory, while MACD has crossed below its signal line and continues to diverge in negative territory, favouring selling into strength and downside breaks.
NZD/USD triangle delivers
Source: Tradingview
There are also signs the improving backdrop is beginning to spill over into NZD/USD. As noted yesterday, the pair was threatening to break higher from an ascending triangle, a move that's since played out through the European and North American sessions.
The breakout shifts the focus to 0.5774, a level that's repeatedly acted as both support and resistance this year. A sustained move above there would bring a cluster of key moving averages into view, starting with the 50-day moving average at 0.5815. While the 50-day moving average has recently crossed below the 200-day moving average, completing a death cross, that signal is being overridden by the improving fundamental backdrop and recent price action. Should that view prove misplaced and a retracement unfold, the former breakout level at 0.5724 is the first area to watch for support.
Momentum indicators point to the potential for further gains. RSI (14) continues to trend higher and has reclaimed the neutral 50 level, while MACD has completed a bullish crossover. Although it remains below zero, it's continuing to push higher, suggesting the bearish momentum that dragged NZD/USD to fresh 2026 lows in late June has dissipated and may be in the early stages of reversing, pointing to the potential for an extension of Thursday's breakout.
The NZD/USD pair gains strong positive traction following the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) first rate hike in three years and reclaims the 0.5700 mark during the Asian session on Wednesday. Spot prices stick to intraday gains in the wake of the central bank's hawkish outlook, saying that further rate increases appear likely at the coming meetings. Moreover, subdued US Dollar (USD) price action backs the case for a further appreciating move for the currency pair as the market focus shifts to the release of the FOMC Minutes, due later today.
From a technical perspective, the NZD/USD pair is currently placed near the 0.5715 confluence hurdle – comprising the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the May-June fall. Some follow-through buying will be seen as a fresh trigger for bullish traders and set the stage for an extension of the recent recovery from the year-to-date low, touched last month.
Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 58.98 is mildly constructive, though this improving momentum only hints at consolidation rather than a clear topside break while the NZD/USD pair stays beneath the aforementioned barrier. A sustained strength, however, should pave the way for a move towards the 38.2% Fibo. level at 0.5767 and the 50% retracement near 0.5811. Further up, the 61.8% retracement at 0.5855, the 78.6% level at 0.5917, and the cycle high at 0.5996 form successive resistances for any recovery.
On the downside, the only notable structural support in view emerges at the Fibonacci anchor around 0.5626, where buyers would be expected to show interest if the pair extends its decline.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
NZD/USD 4-hour chart
RBNZ FAQs The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is the country’s central bank. Its economic objectives are achieving and maintaining price stability – achieved when inflation, measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), falls within the band of between 1% and 3% – and supporting maximum sustainable employment.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decides the appropriate level of the Official Cash Rate (OCR) according to its objectives. When inflation is above target, the bank will attempt to tame it by raising its key OCR, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money and thus cooling the economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD.
Employment is important for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) because a tight labor market can fuel inflation. The RBNZ’s goal of “maximum sustainable employment” is defined as the highest use of labor resources that can be sustained over time without creating an acceleration in inflation. “When employment is at its maximum sustainable level, there will be low and stable inflation. However, if employment is above the maximum sustainable level for too long, it will eventually cause prices to rise more and more quickly, requiring the MPC to raise interest rates to keep inflation under control,” the bank says.
In extreme situations, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) can enact a monetary policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the RBNZ prints local currency and uses it to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions with the aim to increase the domestic money supply and spur economic activity. QE usually results in a weaker New Zealand Dollar (NZD). QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objectives of the central bank. The RBNZ used it during the Covid-19 pandemic.
The New Zealand dollar received the boost that normally accompanies a rate hike, but the rally quickly lost momentum. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand delivered a widely anticipated 25 basis point increase in the Official Cash Rate to 2.50%, yet investors stopped short of pricing a more aggressive tightening cycle. Instead, the market came away with the impression that while another hike is still likely, policymakers have set a considerably higher hurdle before taking the next step.
At first glance, the statement appeared hawkish. The Committee said “some further reduction in monetary stimulus is likely to be required” and that “further OCR increases appear likely at upcoming meetings.” But those remarks were balanced by equally strong caveats. The RBNZ repeatedly emphasized that medium-term inflation remains uncertain and that future decisions will depend on incoming data, firms’ price-setting behaviour and the strength of the recovery, adding that the timing of future hikes is “highly uncertain.”
That balance was reflected in the Record of Meeting. While all six members agreed to raise the OCR, they were not fully aligned on the inflation outlook. Prasanna Gai and Hayley Gourley believed risks remained tilted to the upside. However, Governor Anna Breman, Chief Economist Paul Conway, Assistant Governor (Money) Karen Silk and external member Carl Hansen judged the risks to be broadly balanced instead.
Those differences matter because the balanced camp included the Governor and two of the Bank’s most senior policy officials. Breman argued that weak demand could continue limiting businesses’ ability to pass higher costs on to consumers. Conway questioned how quickly the recovery would spread beyond stronger parts of the economy even while acknowledging firms might eventually rebuild margins. Silk pointed to two-way risks, noting that a weaker exchange rate could add to imported inflation, but slower immigration could simultaneously restrain growth, housing and inflationary pressure. Together, their comments suggest the Committee is looking for clearer evidence that inflation is becoming genuinely persistent before tightening again.
That explains the Kiwi’s muted reaction. The RBNZ reinforced its inflation-fighting credentials with another rate hike, but it deliberately avoided creating expectations of an automatic follow-up move. Investors appear to have concluded that policymakers are comfortable pausing at 2.50% until the data justify another increase, rather than feeling compelled to keep tightening simply because the cycle has begun.
The charts tell a similar story. NZD/USD recovered after the decision but remained comfortably below last week’s high at 0.5726, suggesting buyers have yet to seize full control. The rebound from 0.5625 may still extend in the near term, but it continues to resemble a corrective recovery within a broader downtrend.
Even if another leg higher develops, upside should be capped by the 0.5768 resistance cluster, including the 38.2% retracement of 0.5993 to 0.5625 at 0.5766. Once the corrective rebound is complete, a break below 0.5625 remains the preferred scenario. A subsequent move through 0.5580 would shift focus back to the 2025 low at 0.5484.
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The NZD/USD pair is down 0.2% to near 0.5690 during the European trading session on Tuesday. The Kiwi pair faces selling pressure as the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) underperforms its peers ahead of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) monetary policy decision on Wednesday.
New Zealand Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against listed major currencies today. New Zealand Dollar was the weakest against the Japanese Yen.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.08%0.07%-0.08%0.05%0.15%0.23%0.17%EUR-0.08%-0.03%-0.17%-0.04%0.10%0.17%0.09%GBP-0.07%0.03%-0.13%0.00%0.11%0.20%0.12%JPY0.08%0.17%0.13%0.14%0.25%0.32%0.26%CAD-0.05%0.04%0.00%-0.14%0.09%0.20%0.12%AUD-0.15%-0.10%-0.11%-0.25%-0.09%0.09%0.00%NZD-0.23%-0.17%-0.20%-0.32%-0.20%-0.09%-0.08%CHF-0.17%-0.09%-0.12%-0.26%-0.12%0.00%0.08% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the New Zealand Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent NZD (base)/USD (quote).
In the policy meeting, the RBNZ is highly anticipated to raise interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 2.5%. Therefore, investors will pay close attention to RBNZ Governor Anna Breman’s press conference to get fresh cues regarding the monetary policy outlook.
In the May policy meeting, RBNZ’s Breman stated that the interest rates were likely to increase sooner and by more than previously signalled to combat inflation. Breman added, "The committee remains focused on ensuring inflation returns to target while avoiding unnecessary volatility in the economy.”
Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) trades higher ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes of the June policy meeting, which will be released on Wednesday. Investors will closely read FOMC minutes to get fresh cues regarding the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook.
At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.1% higher to near 100.95.
NZD/USD technical analysis
NZD/USD trades lower at around 0.5688, keeping a bearish near-term tone as spot holds beneath the 20-period exponential moving average (EMA) at 0.5724.
The pair’s inability to reclaim this short-term EMA suggests rallies remain capped for now, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 39 stays below the neutral 50 line, hinting at lingering downside pressure rather than an oversold extreme.
On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the 20-period EMA near 0.5724, where any recovery would likely meet initial supply and define the hurdle for a more meaningful rebound. Looking down, key support areas are around the June 26 low at 0.5626 and the November 21 low at 0.5580.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Economic Indicator RBNZ Interest Rate Decision The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) announces its interest rate decision after each of its seven scheduled annual policy meetings. If the RBNZ is hawkish and sees inflationary pressures rising, it raises the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to bring inflation down. This is positive for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) since higher interest rates attract more capital inflows. Likewise, if it reaches the view that inflation is too low it lowers the OCR, which tends to weaken NZD.
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The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) holds monetary policy meetings seven times a year, announcing their decision on interest rates and the economic assessments that influenced their decision. The central bank offers clues on the economic outlook and future policy path, which are of high relevance for the NZD valuation. Positive economic developments and upbeat outlook could lead the RBNZ to tighten the policy by hiking interest rates, which tends to be NZD bullish. The policy announcements are usually followed by interim Governor Christian Hawkesby's press conference.
The NZD/USD exchange rate pulled back a bit on Tuesday, reacting to more weak US macro data, and as traders refocused on the upcoming Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) interest rate decision. It retreated to 0.5693 from last week’s high of 0.5725.
The New Zealand dollar, commonly known as kiwi, retreated as traders waited for the upcoming RBNZ interest rate decision. Market participants expect that the Anna Breman-led bank will decide to hike interest rates by 0.25%.
The bank will do that to combat elevated inflation. Recent data showed that the headline CPI rose 3.1% in the first quarter, remaining above its target of 2.0%, as energy prices jumped.
Ideally, the rate hike should be bullish for the kiwi as it will make it more attractive to investors. However, it could also be bearish, especially if the bank signals that it will not hike again since crude oil and natural gas prices are falling during the US-Iran ceasefire.
This view likely explains why New Zealand’s bond yields are falling. The ten-year yield dropped to 4.45% from last week’s high of 4.485%. Similarly, the rate-sensitive two-year fell to 3.348%.
The RBNZ decision comes at a time when New Zealand’s economy is doing well. A recent report showed that the economy expanded by 1.5% YoY in the first quarter. It was the third consecutive quarter of gains, with the service industry being the main driving force. Goods-producing industries contracted, with the construction sector contracting by 3.8%.
The NZD/USD pair will react to the upcoming FOMC minutes, which will provide more information on Kevin Warsh’s first meeting. In it, officials left interest rates unchanged between 3.50% and 3.75%, with the dot plot showing that hawks were in ascendance. 9 members hinted that they would support tightening later this year.
Still, it is unclear whether the recent developments will change their outlooks. For example, jobs numbers released last week showed that the economy added 57k jobs last month, lower than the expected 114k. The BLS also revised the previous month’s jobs report lower from 172k to 129k.
Recent PMI numbers also came lower than expected. The ISM non-manufacturing PMI and the S&P Global services PMI fell to 54 and 51.2, respectively. Last week’s manufacturing PMI figure also came short of expectations.
NZD/USD chart | Source: TradingView
Technicals suggest that the recent NZD/USD pair uptrend may be losing steam as the Average Directional Index (ADX) has dropped from 38.4 on July 1 to 35 today. The pair has also remained below the 50-day moving average, and has formed a bearish flag pattern.
These technicals point to more downside in the near term. If this happens, it will drop to the key support level of 0.5621, its lowest level in June this year. A drop below that price will signal that bears have prevailed and push it lower, potentially to 0.5600. A clear bullish breakout will be confirmed if it moves above the 50-day moving average level.
