The New Zealand Dollar extends losses against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday, weighed by the risk-off mood amid escalating tensions in the Middle East and rising Oil prices. The NZD/USD extends its reversal from the 0.5900 area on Friday, reaching session lows at 0.5836, below the key 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) which lies at the 0.5850 area.
Market sentiment remains subdued as tensions between the US and Iran escalate further, pushing back hopes of a negotiated end to the conflict. Tehran threatened to strike US Gas and Oil interests in Gulf countries if Iran is attacked again, following another round of hostilities over the weekend.
Meanwhile, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which carried about 20% of global Oil supply before the war, remains limited to a trickle, which is pushing prices higher. Brent Oil is trading above $97.00 per barrel on Tuesday's European session, accumulating a nearly 9% appreciation so far in September, and 38% above July lows. These prices increase the exposure of New Zealand’s economy to another Energy shock.
Earlier on the day, data from China revealed that the trade surplus increased in August, although imports missed expectations, which suggests that the country's domestic demand remains weak. The data failed to provide any noticeable support to the China-proxy NZD.
Technical Analysis: Approaching the trendline of a bearish H&S
NZD/USD trades at 0.5843, holding a bearish near-term tone as it slips just below the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 0.5854 and draws closer to the neckline of a bearish Head & Shoulders (H&S) pattern, between 0.5800 and 0.5820. Momentum indicators show a growing bearish trend, as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) eases toward the low-40s and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line sits below zero with a negative histogram.
A break of the 0.5800 level would confirm an H&S pattern, adding pressure towards the late July lows, near 0.5765 and the July 13 low, at 0.5745. The H&S's measured target is below the June 26 low at 0.5626.
On the topside, Bulls should break Friday's high at the 0.5900 area to ease bearish pressure and shift the focus toward the late August highs at the 0.5990 area.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
New Zealand Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against listed major currencies today. New Zealand Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.09%0.11%-0.14%-0.09%0.13%0.63%0.25%EUR-0.09%0.01%-0.23%-0.17%0.02%0.55%0.16%GBP-0.11%-0.01%-0.25%-0.19%0.00%0.54%0.15%JPY0.14%0.23%0.25%0.07%0.28%0.80%0.42%CAD0.09%0.17%0.19%-0.07%0.21%0.73%0.35%AUD-0.13%-0.02%-0.01%-0.28%-0.21%0.53%0.14%NZD-0.63%-0.55%-0.54%-0.80%-0.73%-0.53%-0.38%CHF-0.25%-0.16%-0.15%-0.42%-0.35%-0.14%0.38% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the New Zealand Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent NZD (base)/USD (quote).
NZD/USD hourly chart showing price at 0.58778, hovering near the 50 EMA (0.58786) below the 200 EMA (0.58951). Source: TradingView The New Zealand dollar is in a different world at the moment. It seems a little weaker. The last RBNZ meeting was a little bit more cautious than I think people realized that it would be.
A breakdown below 0.5860 has me shorting the Kiwi. Now, observant traders might look at that and go, why don’t I just buy the Australian dollar against the New Zealand dollar? And I would say that’s triangulation, and that is a possibility as well.
But if the US dollar is to strengthen, the Kiwi has already shown itself to be very weak to begin with, so I don’t have an issue shorting this currency.
Conversely, if we were to break above the 0.5920 level, I don’t have an issue going long. Now, I wouldn’t, based on the recent action, expect as much momentum here. There are other currencies that have done better against the dollar.
The NZD/USD pair trades in negative territory near 0.5875 during the early European trading hours on Monday, pressured by a firmer US Dollar (USD). Traders raise their bets on a US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike in the September policy meeting following stronger-than-expected US jobs data.
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) showed on Friday that US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) climbed by 162K in August, versus an upwardly revised rise of 21K prior. This figure came in above the market consensus of 56K. Meanwhile, the Unemployment Rate held steady at 4.1% during the same period. Fed funds futures are now pricing in roughly a 60% probability of a hike, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
A dovish hike from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) could undermine the New Zealand Dollar (NZD). The RBNZ decided to raise the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points (bps) to 2.75% last week. RBNZ Governor Anna Breman stated that it’s likely there will be a further increase, but policymakers want to take time to assess the impact of the increases to date.
RBNZ continues gradual tightening as inflation risks monitoredAnalysts at Commerzbank note that the RBNZ delivered a widely anticipated move, with the central bank raising the Overnight Cash Rate (OCR) by 25bp to 2.75% “as expected,” and reiterating that “a gradual removal of monetary stimulus was appropriate to return inflation sustainably to the target.” The bank highlights that while headline CPI remains elevated, largely on the back of Middle East-related fuel costs, most core inflation measures are still within the RBNZ’s 1–3% band, suggesting that the pace of any further tightening will hinge on the “persistence” of inflation pressures and the strength of the domestic recovery.
Technical Analysis: NZD/USD extends consolidation the near termIn the daily chart, NZD/USD sits between nearby structural bands, holding above the 100-day moving average (MA) while still trading below the Bollinger middle band. This configuration, together with a 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering around a neutral 48, suggests a consolidative near-term tone, with price caught in a range rather than showing a clear directional break.
On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the Bollinger middle band around 0.5910. The next upside target is located at the Bollinger upper band further up near 0.5985.
On the downside, the 100-day MA at about 0.5845 offers the first layer of support, ahead of the Bollinger lower band clustered just below 0.5830, which would need to give way to signal a deeper corrective move. A break below this level could expose the July 27 low of 0.5771.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
New Zealand Dollar FAQs The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair.
Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
The NZD/USD pair posts modest gains around 0.5855 during the early European trading hours on Thursday, supported by stronger-than-expected Chinese economic data. Attention will shift to the US August employment data, which will be released later on Friday.
China’s services activity expanded at a faster pace in August, with the Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rising to 51.4 from 50.4 in July, RatingDog showed on Thursday. This figure came in above the market consensus of 50.6. This report provides some support to the China-proxy Kiwi, as China is a major trading partner of New Zealand.
On the other hand, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium has bolstered expectations of a rate hike in September. Warsh said last week that recent inflation data had been moderate, but this was not enough to consider underlying inflation trends to have improved substantially. Warsh further stated that the Fed must be confident that inflation is moving toward the target level clearly and quickly enough.
His hawkish comments could underpin the Greenback and act as a headwind for the pair. The probability of a Fed rate hike in September rose to 66.1% after Warsh’s speech, according to CME Group FedWatch tool.
RBNZ lifts rates as Commerzbank highlights gradual withdrawal of stimulusAccording to analysts at Commerzbank, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand has raised the Overnight Cash Rate (OCR) by 25bp to 2.75% “as expected,” with policymakers judging that “a gradual removal of monetary stimulus was appropriate to return inflation sustainably to the target.” The bank notes that the move underscores the RBNZ’s focus on carefully normalising policy while keeping inflation anchored within its mandated range.
Technical Analysis: Rallies of NZD/USD could remain limited in the near termIn the daily chart, NZD/USD is consolidating after its recent pullback, holding just above the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) and the lower Bollinger band, which together define a tight demand zone. However, the Relative Strength Index (14) at 43.46 stays below the midline and hints at mildly bearish momentum, suggesting that rallies could remain limited while this indicator fails to recover toward 50.
On the topside, initial resistance level emerges in the 0.5900-0.5910 zone, representing the psychological level and the Bollinger middle band. A stronger supply anticipated at the upper boundary of the Bollinger Band near 0.5988.
On the downside, the immediate support level is seen at the 100-day SMA at 0.5845, followed by the lower limit of the Bollinger band at 0.5827. A clear break would open the door to the July 27 low of 0.5771.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
New Zealand Dollar FAQs The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair.
Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
Sell NZD/USD. RBNZ hiked to 2.75% but the market is still repricing higher NZ and US yields (NZ 10Y to 4.86%). NZD is already in a confirmed bearish breakout: below 0.5860 pivot and the 50-day MA, with momentum pointing toward the next Murrey pivot/reverse level. Trade the rate-spread + yield-up trend, not the single hike headline.
Key Risk: Oil-driven inflation stays sticky and forces the RBNZ to keep hiking faster than the Fed, reversing the yield spread and lifting NZD.
NZ 10Y bond short (receiver risk)
Sell NZ government 10Y futures/bonds. The article flags rising NZ yields tied to crude/transport inflation risk and a higher-for-longer global rate path (Fed hike expectations). With NZD breaking down and yields at the highest since March, duration is vulnerable to further upside in yields.
Key Risk: RBNZ turns more dovish than markets expect (growth/job insecurity bites hard), causing NZ yields to fall and crushing the short.
The NZD/USD exchange rate continued its strong downward trend, reaching its lowest level since August 13 this year after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) delivered its interest rate decision. It slumped to 0.5835, down by over 2.6% from its highest point in August.
New Zealand’s RBNZ decided to hike interest rates for the second consecutive meeting as it fights to lower inflation, which has remained above the 2% level in the past few years.
It brought the benchmark interest rate to 2.75%, narrowing the gap with the benchmark US interest rate, which stands between 3.50% and 3.75%.
In a statement, the RBNZ maintained that inflation is a major issue in the country, with the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising to 4.1% in the June qyuarter, driven by elevated crude oil prices.
While core inflation remains high, officials expect that it will come down to the target range sometime in 2027. The statement added:
“Resilient demand from New Zealand’s trading partners and strong export prices are supporting income growth and investment in export-exposed sectors and regional New Zealand.”
Still, the bank warned that the economy is seeing weak income growth, job insecurity, and flat house prices, which are having an impact on household spending and residential investment in Auckland and Wellington.
A key challenge is that inflation may remain at an elevated level in the coming weeks now that the US and Iran have resumed their kinetic activity. Brent and the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) have continued rising and now sits at $95 and $90, respectively.
The crisis will likely escalate in the coming days, which will push crude oil and transportation prices substantially in the coming weeks.
This is one key reasons why New Zealand’s and US bond yields have continued rising. The ten-year yield jumped to 4.86%, its highest level since March 23rd this year. It has risen substantially from the June low of 4.358%.
The same is happening in the United States, where the ten-year and 30-year rose to 4.8% and 5.28%, respectively. These yields have jumped as investors expect that the Fed will hike interest rates as soon as this month.
NZDUSD chart | Source: TradingView
The daily chart shows that the NZD/USD pair peaked at 0.5990 in August. This was an important level since it was its highest point in May and June this year.
The pair has now slumped and moved below the ascending trendline that connects the lowest swings since June, July, and August this year. Moving below that level confirmed the bearish breakout.
The pair has moved below the Major S/R pivot point of 0.5860, and the 50-day moving average. Therefore, the pair will likely remain under pressure in the coming days, potentially to the strong, pivot, reverse level of the Murrey Math Lines too.
NZD/USD gains ground for the second consecutive day, trading around 0.5840 during the Asian hours on Wednesday.
During the September Monetary Policy Review, RBNZ Governor Anna Breman stated that the official cash rate (OCR) track remains closely aligned with the May projections. Breman noted that moving the OCR toward a neutral stance remains accommodative, allowing the central bank to curb inflation while supporting the broader economy. Breman added that policymakers may need additional time to evaluate the full impact of their current monetary stance. Earlier on, Breman and her colleagues hiked the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points (bps) to 2.75%, as widely expected.
Technical analysis of the daily chart suggests the NZD/USD pair remains within an ascending channel pattern, indicating a bullish bias is still active. However, NZD/USD maintains a bearish near-term tone as it sits below the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the nine-period EMA. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has retreated toward the low-40s, hinting that downside momentum is building while rallies are likely to face selling pressure against this overhead EMA cluster.
The NZD/USD pair is hovering around the lower boundary of the ascending channel at 0.5850. A sustained break below the channel would confirm the confirm the bearish reversal and put downward pressure on the pair to explore the region around a nearly 17-month low of the 14-month low of 0.5580, which was recorded in November 2025. Further support lies at 0.5485, the lowest since March 2020.
On the upside, the NZD/USD pair may rebound and test the immediate barrier at the 50-day EMA of 0.5864, followed by the nine-day EMA at 0.5907. A break above these moving averages would revive the bullish bias and support the pair to approach the six-month high of 0.5996.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
The table below shows the percentage change of New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against listed major currencies today. New Zealand Dollar was the weakest against the US Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.15%0.13%-0.02%0.18%0.16%1.02%0.19%EUR-0.15%-0.03%-0.13%0.04%0.02%0.85%0.04%GBP-0.13%0.03%-0.11%0.05%0.03%0.85%0.06%JPY0.02%0.13%0.11%0.18%0.16%0.98%0.18%CAD-0.18%-0.04%-0.05%-0.18%-0.02%0.81%0.00%AUD-0.16%-0.02%-0.03%-0.16%0.02%0.83%0.04%NZD-1.02%-0.85%-0.85%-0.98%-0.81%-0.83%-0.79%CHF-0.19%-0.04%-0.06%-0.18%-0.00%-0.04%0.79% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the New Zealand Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent NZD (base)/USD (quote).
The NZD/USD pair attracts some sellers following a modest intraday uptick to the 0.5930 region and languishes near the lower end of its daily range during the early European session on Tuesday. Bearish traders now await a break below the 0.5900 mark before positioning for an extension of the recent pullback from the vicinity of the 0.6000 psychological mark, or a three-month high touched in August.
The US Dollar (USD) regains positive traction as traders continue to price in a greater chance of a US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike in September amid inflation risks stemming from rising energy prices. Adding to this, a further escalation of tensions between the US and Iran is seen as another factor underpinning the safe-haven Greenback, exerting some downward pressure on the NZD/USD pair.
The downside, however, seems cushioned as traders might refrain from placing aggressive bets and opt to wait for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) policy meeting on Wednesday. The focus will then shift to the closely watched US monthly jobs data, popularly known as the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday. Apart from this, geopolitical headlines should provide some impetus to the NZD/USD pair.
From a technical perspective, an intraday breakdown below the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart could be seen as a key trigger for bearish traders. Moreover, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains marginally below zero and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers in the mid-30s, which together hint at fading bullish momentum after the latest recovery.
However, the NZD/USD pair is holding above the 200-period SMA at 0.5876, leaving the near-term bias neutral but capped by nearby overhead supply. Furthermore, the upward-sloping trend-line reference around 0.5900 still underpins price action, making it prudent to wait for a break below the said handle before positioning for a slide to the 200-period SMA at 0.5876, where buyers could defend the broader uptrend.
On the topside, initial resistance is defined by the 100-period SMA at 0.5915, and a sustained break above this barrier would be needed to re-open a more constructive path for the NZD/USD pair.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
NZD/USD 4-hour chart
Economic Indicator RBNZ Interest Rate Decision The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) announces its interest rate decision after each of its seven scheduled annual policy meetings. If the RBNZ is hawkish and sees inflationary pressures rising, it raises the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to bring inflation down. This is positive for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) since higher interest rates attract more capital inflows. Likewise, if it reaches the view that inflation is too low it lowers the OCR, which tends to weaken NZD.
Read more.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) holds monetary policy meetings seven times a year, announcing their decision on interest rates and the economic assessments that influenced their decision. The central bank offers clues on the economic outlook and future policy path, which are of high relevance for the NZD valuation. Positive economic developments and upbeat outlook could lead the RBNZ to tighten the policy by hiking interest rates, which tends to be NZD bullish. The policy announcements are usually followed by interim Governor Christian Hawkesby's press conference.
The NZD/USD is poised to finish Monday’s session virtually unchanged near its opening price, despite a modest 0.08% gain as the US Dollar weakens amid rising tensions in the Middle East. The pair trades above 0.5900.
NZD/USD Price Forecast: Technical OutlookFrom a price action standpoint, the NZD/USD remains upward-biased, with the Kiwi Dollar sitting above an upslope support trendline drawn from the July lows, which it has tested three times. Worth noting that the pair is still above that trendline, an indication that buyers are stepping in once the NZD/USD dives to that support level, which could open the door for further upside.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains bullish, indicating further upside.
For a bullish continuation, NZD/USD must reclaim the 0.5950 area, then 0.6000. A decisive breakout could expose the February 12 high at 0.6077, followed by the yearly peak of 0.6094 ahead of 0.6100.
Downwards, the first support is the previously mentioned trendline near 0.5901, followed by 0.5850. Once hurdled, the next stop will be the confluence of the 100- and 200-day SMAs near 0.5847/45 ahead of the 50-day SMA at 0.5818 and 0.5800.
NZD/USD Price Chart – Daily
NZD/USD daily chart New Zealand Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against listed major currencies today. New Zealand Dollar was the strongest against the US Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.29%-0.09%-0.19%-0.35%-0.03%-0.08%-0.15%EUR0.29%0.17%0.09%-0.06%0.22%0.23%0.13%GBP0.09%-0.17%-0.09%-0.23%0.03%0.03%-0.02%JPY0.19%-0.09%0.09%-0.16%0.17%0.15%0.07%CAD0.35%0.06%0.23%0.16%0.34%0.32%0.22%AUD0.03%-0.22%-0.03%-0.17%-0.34%-0.01%-0.06%NZD0.08%-0.23%-0.03%-0.15%-0.32%0.01%-0.07%CHF0.15%-0.13%0.02%-0.07%-0.22%0.06%0.07% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the New Zealand Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent NZD (base)/USD (quote).
US Nonfarm Payrolls → USD/JPYFed Chair Kevin Warsh struck a hawkish tone at Jackson Hole, stressing that progress toward the 2.0% inflation target remains modest and reaffirming price stability as the Fed’s primary mandate. Markets responded by repricing the odds of a 25bps September hike to more than 50%, sending USD/JPY above the key 159.50 resistance toward the 160.00 psychological barrier.
However, the bulls failed to clear the 50-day EMA as the risk of FX intervention continues to hang in the background. At the same time, Warsh’s preference for data dependency over forward guidance may encourage thinner liquidity ahead of Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls.
Consensus expects 58k new jobs following July’s 23k decline, an unchanged 4.1% unemployment rate, and wage growth easing to 3.0% y/y from 3.2%. A downside surprise could be partly cushioned by safe-haven flows if US-Iran military tensions escalate further. Therefore, barring intervention, attention remains firmly on the 160.00 area, with a sustained break potentially opening the way toward 161.00 and then up to 162.00.
RBNZ Rate Decision → NZD/USDThe Reserve Bank of New Zealand takes center stage on Wednesday (02:00 GMT), with markets fully pricing in a back-to-back 25bps hike to 2.75%. Above-target inflation keeps hawkish forward guidance on the table, as futures markets price in an additional hike by year-end.
A hawkish policy guidance could see NZD/USD pivot off its 20-day SMA near 0.5900 to test the key 0.5990 horizontal resistance level established in May. However, the recent increase in the unemployment rate to 5.6% and anchored inflation expectations slightly above 2% may prompt the RBNZ governor to favor a gradual tightening pace. Considering geopolitical risks, which favor the US dollar, the pair could face a rocky path ahead. On the downside, fresh selling might be waiting near 0.5890.
US-Iran Conflict → GoldGold plunged to 4,396 following Warsh’s speech as the US 10-year Treasury yield surged above 4.70%, with shorter-term yields rising even faster.
Although gold remains on track for a positive monthly close, currently establishing a footing near its 20-day SMA, Friday’s sharp decline reinforces the risk of a short-term bearish pullback. Technically, the bears need a sustained break below 4,300 to trigger deeper selling towards 4,000.
Beyond the NFP data, markets will also monitor the escalating US-Iran conflict after the US attacked Iran’s Larak Island and Iran retaliated with strikes against US bases in Jordan and UAE. President Trump’s AI-generated video depicting fires on Kharg Island further suggests that Washington remains willing to combine military pressure with sanctions to force Tehran to make concessions over its nuclear program and the Strait of Hormuz.
Against this backdrop, gold has recently traded more like a risk asset than a traditional safe haven. Without renewed US fiscal or debt concerns or a potentially disappointing jobs report, elevated real yields could keep bullion vulnerable to further downside momentum.
TL;DR: The RBNZ’s Wednesday 25bp hike to 2.75% is already priced in, so NZD/USD’s real reaction will hinge on the accompanying rate forecast — ASB expects the OCR to keep climbing to 3.25%, while Westpac sees that same outcome as only a 10-15% probability tail case.
September Hike Looks Like the Low-Drama Part of the Meeting The RBNZ is widely expected to raise the OCR by 25bp from 2.50% to 2.75% when it announces its decision on Wednesday, September 2 at 2pm NZT. Markets are already close to fully pricing that outcome, leaving relatively little room for the headline hike itself to move NZD materially unless the Bank surprises.
The RBNZ’s key interest rate, the Official Cash Rate (OCR), currently sits at 2.50%. Two major New Zealand banks — ASB and Westpac — published detailed previews on August 26, and both arrive at the same headline call: a 25-basis-point hike to 2.75%, agreed by consensus among all six members of the Bank’s rate-setting committee.
ASB’s Senior Economist Mark Smith put it plainly: with the hike “close to fully priced in by financial markets,” the RBNZ is expected to “take the path of least resistance.” Westpac’s Chief Economist Kelly Eckhold reached the identical call independently, also describing it as a likely consensus decision.
When two competing banks agree this closely on the immediate outcome, the actual rate decision becomes low-drama. That’s exactly why this preview focuses less on Wednesday’s number and more on what comes wrapped around it.
A “Sure Thing” That Isn’t Universally Agreed Even so, it’s worth being honest that “priced in” doesn’t mean everyone thinks it’s the right call. The NZIER Monetary Policy Shadow Board — an independent panel of economists surveyed ahead of each decision — published its latest read on August 31, and only just over half of its members actually recommend the hike.
Those in favour, including BNZ’s Stephen Toplis and economist Viv Hall, point to inflation still running above the Bank’s comfort zone. Those preferring to hold, including Dennis Wesselbaum and Kerry Gupwell, note that much of the recent inflation pickup looks supply-driven rather than demand-driven, and that the case for another hike isn’t yet airtight. One panel member, Jarrod Kerr, goes further and argues New Zealand doesn’t have much of an inflation problem left to fight.
ASB and Westpac Agree on Wednesday, Then Diverge Sharply This is where it gets interesting. Both ASB and Westpac agree on Wednesday’s hike — but they disagree meaningfully on what happens for the rest of the year, and that disagreement is worth explaining plainly:
ASB’s view: the OCR keeps rising in a straight line — a hike in September, another in October, another in December — ending the year at 3.25%, a level ASB considers roughly “neutral” (neither stimulating nor restraining the economy). Westpac’s view: September’s hike happens, and then the path becomes genuinely uncertain. Westpac actually treats “two more hikes bringing the OCR to 3.25% by year-end” as its less likely, more hawkish scenario — assigning it only a 10–15% probability. Westpac’s more central expectation is that the RBNZ pauses to assess the data before committing to anything further. In plain terms: what one bank calls its most probable outcome, the other bank calls a low-probability tail case. That’s a real disagreement between two serious economics teams looking at the same numbers — not just a rounding difference — and it’s the single most useful thing to watch for as Wednesday’s statement and press conference unfold.
Both banks do agree on one thing: the RBNZ is very likely to avoid committing to an October move either way, preferring to say future decisions depend on incoming data. That means the accompanying rate forecast the Bank publishes alongside its decision — not the hike itself — is the thing markets will actually trade off on Wednesday.
The Committee Has Become More Unified, but the Risk Debate Isn’t Settled The RBNZ’s own voting history shows how the policy debate has shifted. In May, the committee split 3–3 between holding and hiking, with Governor Anna Breman’s tie-breaking vote favoring no change. By July, the same six-member committee had moved to unanimous support for raising the OCR to 2.50%.
That progression suggests the direction of travel has become clearer. But July minutes also showed disagreement had moved from the immediate decision to assessment of what comes next. Two members saw inflation risks tilted to the upside, while four judged risks broadly balanced.
A unanimous September hike would therefore not necessarily mean the committee has reached consensus over the full tightening path. The more important signal will be whether the forecasts and statement imply September is another step toward neutral, or whether the RBNZ is preparing to pause after delivering it.
Oil Has So Far Been Kinder Than the RBNZ Feared Energy remains central to the inflation backdrop. In May, the RBNZ based forecasts on Dubai crude gradually falling toward roughly US$96 a barrel by year-end and published alternative scenarios showing how different oil outcomes could affect rates.
Under a scenario where oil remained near $120 and firms passed higher costs through aggressively, the RBNZ estimated the OCR could ultimately need to rise as high as 4.30%. If oil remained elevated but firms absorbed more of the shock, the projected peak was closer to 3.60%. If oil fell broadly as expected and weaker spending became the dominant force, the Bank indicated rates could simply remain on hold.
Actual oil prices have so far developed more favorably. Dubai crude stood at $88.72 on August 28, below the RBNZ’s baseline assumption rather than above it. That helps explain why current rate expectations are far removed from the Bank’s most hawkish oil scenario.
The risk hasn’t disappeared. Renewed Middle East escalation on August 30 pushed Brent back above $90, raising the possibility of another inflation shock if disruption becomes persistent. But for now, oil hasn’t delivered the kind of sustained upside surprise that would by itself justify moving toward the RBNZ’s aggressive tightening scenarios.
Domestic Data Give the RBNZ Reasons for Both Action and Caution Inflation peaked at 3.9% in the June quarter, slightly below the RBNZ’s earlier forecast, and is projected to ease toward 3.3% in the September quarter. Inflation expectations across households, businesses, and professional forecasters also softened in September-quarter surveys, broadly reversing part of the increase associated with the earlier oil shock.
The labor market is less supportive of aggressive tightening. Unemployment reached 5.6% in the June quarter, a little weaker than the RBNZ had expected. That argues against assuming September automatically begins a rapid sequence of hikes.
Financial conditions have meanwhile moved in both directions. The New Zealand Dollar and market interest rates tightened in May, eased in July, and tightened again through August. Broader US Dollar strength following Fed Chair Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole speech has added another external tightening force. That matters because the RBNZ is deciding how much domestic policy restraint is still required in an environment where some tightening is already arriving through markets.
What to Actually Watch on Wednesday The published interest rate forecast, not the hike. Look specifically at where the RBNZ projects rates will end the year and where they’ll peak. If that number lands notably below what markets are currently expecting, it could actually weigh on the New Zealand Dollar even though the Bank is hiking. Any hint about an October move. Both major banks expect the RBNZ to avoid committing either way. A clearer signal in either direction — more hawkish or more dovish than expected — would be the real surprise of the day. Governor Breman’s tone in the press conference. Given her deciding role in May’s tied vote, her communication style carries extra weight even now that the committee has converged. ActionForex’s Technical View on NZD/USD Despite last week’s notable retreat on broad USD strength, downside remains relatively contained. The rising channel off the 0.5625 low remains intact, keeping the case for a resumed rally in force. A break above 0.5987 remains favoured at a later stage as the next bullish trigger.
There’s nevertheless a warning from momentum. Bearish divergence is visible in the 4H MACD, while the recent decline has pushed the pair back toward channel support. A firm break of that floor would confirm a short-term top, opening a deeper corrective decline toward the 38.2% retracement of the 0.5625–0.5987 leg, at 0.5849.
The daily picture puts 0.6000 into better perspective. A break above the nearby 0.5993 swing high would open the way toward the 0.6092/0.6119 resistance cluster. That area sits inside a much larger range that has contained NZD/USD for more than a year and is likely to cap upside on the first attempt.
Wednesday therefore presents two technical tests. Near term, the question is whether RBNZ communication is strong enough to keep the rising 4H channel intact and push the pair through the psychological 0.6000 area. Medium term, clearing 0.6092/0.6119 on anything more than a temporary basis would likely require a genuine repricing of the RBNZ-Fed policy differential rather than the expected 25bp hike alone.
The OCR Track Is Where Surprise Risk Lives With September’s hike already heavily discounted, NZD’s reaction is likely to depend on where the RBNZ sees rates at year-end and at the eventual peak. A track consistent with continued tightening toward 3.25% would lean toward ASB’s view and give NZD a better chance of challenging 0.6000 and beyond. A flatter path implying a pause after September would align more closely with Westpac’s central case and could leave the Kiwi vulnerable despite the higher OCR.
That’s why Wednesday is less about whether the RBNZ hikes and more about whether the Bank validates the tightening markets expect after it. The headline decision may be largely priced. The OCR track is not.
Key Takeaways Wednesday’s 25bp RBNZ hike to 2.75% is already close to fully priced in, meaning the accompanying rate forecast will drive NZD’s reaction, not the decision itself. ASB expects the OCR to keep climbing to 3.25% by year-end, while Westpac treats that same outcome as only a 10-15% probability, favoring a pause instead. Even a unanimous hike wouldn’t confirm committee consensus on the full tightening path, since July minutes already showed a split over how upside inflation risks are assessed. Oil has stayed below the RBNZ’s baseline assumption so far, keeping current rate expectations well short of the Bank’s most hawkish tightening scenarios. NZD/USD holds a bullish bias above the rising channel floor, with 0.5987 the next trigger and 0.6092/0.6119 the bigger medium-term test that likely needs more than a 25bp hike to clear.
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The NZD/USD pair enters a bullish consolidation phase at the start of a new week and trades around the 0.5975 region during the Asian session, just below its highest level since June, touched on Friday. New Zealand's downbeat Retail Sales data acts as a headwind for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), though weaker sentiment surrounding the US Dollar (USD) continues to support the currency pair.
From a technical perspective, Friday's breakout above the 0.5900 mark was seen as a fresh trigger for NZD/USD bulls. Adding to this, spot prices hold well above the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.5845, which underpins the recent advance and keeps a bullish near-term tone. Moreover, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains slightly positive. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 69 suggests strong but increasingly stretched upside momentum that could slow the pace of gains rather than immediately reverse them.
That said, a deeper pullback below 0.5900 is expected to attract buying interest to preserve the broader constructive structure and find decent support at the 200-period SMA, near 0.5845. A convincing break below the latter would be needed to negate the near-term constructive outlook and pave the way for some meaningful corrective decline. As long as NZD/USD stays above this floor, the bias would favor further consolidation with a mild topside skew, although the overbought RSI reading hints that fresh bullish extension may require a period of digestion or a shallow correction first.
Hence, the 0.6000 psychological mark might continue to act as an immediate hurdle. Bulls might await sustained strength and acceptance above the said handle before positioning for an extension of the recent strong move higher from the year-to-date, around the 0.5625 region, touched in June.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
NZD/USD 4-hour chart
New Zealand Dollar FAQs The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair.
Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
The New Zealand Dollar strengthened above 0.5950 as China kept lending rates unchanged and a softer US Dollar supported higher-beta currencies. The New Zealand Dollar extended its recovery on Thursday, pushing above 0.5950 against the US Dollar and towards its strongest level of August.
The New Zealand Dollar to US Dollar (NZD/USD) exchange rate traded around 0.5955, up 0.34% on the day and 1.74% higher over five sessions.
China's one-year loan prime rate was left at 3.00% and the five-year rate at 3.50% for a fifteenth consecutive month, matching market expectations.
Image: NZD crosses today China Stability Supports Kiwi Sentiment The decision offered some reassurance for currencies exposed to Chinese demand, including the New Zealand Dollar.
Barclays said the People's Bank of China “remains in no rush to cut policy rates or the reserve requirement ratio,” with Beijing currently favouring fiscal measures and targeted support.
The Kiwi has also benefited from broader US Dollar weakness after Washington's larger Treasury buyback plan pulled long-term US yields lower.
ING strategists Chris Turner and Francesco Pesole expect that theme to remain supportive, saying: “We expect NZD/USD to be lifted in the coming months by lower front-end USD rates”.
The bank forecasts NZD/USD around 0.60 over three to six months and 0.61 over 12 months.
Image: ERUK's NZD/USD sentiment survey results August 2026 The immediate hurdle is the 0.6000 area, followed by the 2026 high around 0.6093.
A failure to hold 0.5900 would weaken the latest breakout, but the combination of steady Chinese policy and softer US rate expectations currently favours further upside pressure.
Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.
The NZD/USD pair trades with mild losses around 0.5875 during the early European session on Wednesday. Escalating tensions in the Middle East boost a safe-haven currency such as the US Dollar (USD) and act as a headwind for the pair.
Iran’s Chief of Staff Major General Ali Abdollahi on Wednesday warned Persian Gulf states against providing assistance to the US military amid heightened regional tensions. "We warn any assistance and facilitation provided to the aggressor U.S. army is tantamount to participation with U.S. military forces,” Abdollahi added.
However, traders reduce their bets of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike in the September policy meeting after the release of unexpected job losses in July and tame inflation data. This, in turn, could weigh on the Greenback and cap the downside for the pair.
"Benign inflation and signs of softness in the US labour market make a September Fed hike highly unlikely at this point—despite the modest firming in Fed expectations this morning," said Scotiabank analysts led by Shaun Osborne. "Short-term USD gains remain a fade from our point of view,” Osborne added.
NZD edges above average as BNY questions pricing for further RBNZ hikesStrategists at BNY observe that the Kiwi is trading with a modest tailwind, noting that “the NZD itself is now trading slightly above the rolling 12-month average.” However, they push back against the degree of tightening implied by current market pricing, stating that they “continue to doubt the current market pricing of interest rates expectations, where two more Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) hikes are expected by year end.” While BNY acknowledges that “domestic activity remains robust,” they emphasise that “inflation expectations remain relatively well-anchored,” suggesting the case for additional RBNZ rate increases may be less compelling than investors currently assume.
Technical Analysis: NZD/USD maintains a mildly positive tone above the 100-day SMAIn the daily chart, NZD/USD holds a mildly bullish near-term bias as spot remains above the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) and the Bollinger Bands’ middle SMA, hinting at underlying demand on dips. The Relative Strength Index (14) around 55 keeps a neutral-to-positive tone, suggesting upside pressure is present but not stretched.
On the topside, initial resistance is defined by the August 17 high of 0.5926. The next hurdle is seen at the Bollinger upper band near 0.5940, where rallies could pause. Any follow-through buying above this level could pave the way to the 0.6000 psychologocal level.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at the Bollinger middle band around 0.5855, followed by the 100-day SMA at 0.5830. A deeper retreat would expose the lower Bollinger band near 0.5770 as a more substantial floor.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
New Zealand Dollar FAQs The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair.
Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) trades lower against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday, weighed by a moderate risk-averse sentiment as tensions in the Middle East grow. The NZD/USD pair has reversed Monday’s gains and pulled back to the 0.5880 area ahead of the US session opening, after rejection at 0.5926.
Risk appetite waned on Tuesday as the US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding expired without advances in the peace process. Washington and Tehran have ramped up their threats, and the key Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, buoying Oil prices and adding pressure on the risk-sensitive Kiwi.
Technical Analysis: Key support is at 0.5830
NZD/USD trades at 0.5879, holding a mildly bullish bias while above the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 0.5834, yet with momentum indicators hinting at waning upside pressure. The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) has retreated below 60 and trends towards the 50 midline, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has ticked below the zero line, suggesting that bulls are losing conviction.
Immediate support is seen at the ascending trendline from late June lows, now around 0.5860, although the key support level is the 200-day SMA at 0.5834. A break below that level would confirm a deeper correction, aiming for the late July lows just above 0.5760.
On the topside, bulls would need a clear break of the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of June's downtrend at 0.5916 to curb bears' hopes and shift the focus towards the six-month highs in the 0.600 area (May 7, 29 highs).
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
US Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.06%0.16%0.18%-0.00%-0.02%0.39%0.21%EUR-0.06%0.10%0.11%-0.07%-0.07%0.31%0.16%GBP-0.16%-0.10%-0.02%-0.16%-0.18%0.23%0.06%JPY-0.18%-0.11%0.02%-0.17%-0.19%0.21%0.05%CAD0.00%0.07%0.16%0.17%-0.02%0.39%0.22%AUD0.02%0.07%0.18%0.19%0.02%0.40%0.24%NZD-0.39%-0.31%-0.23%-0.21%-0.39%-0.40%-0.15%CHF-0.21%-0.16%-0.06%-0.05%-0.22%-0.24%0.15% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
NZD/USD rallies to 0.5888, pushing above both EMAs and approaching the 0.5900 resistance level. Source: TradingView
The New Zealand dollar looks very much the same, hanging around the 0.59 level. It looks like it’s struggling a bit over the last hour or so. Pullback wouldn’t be the most shocking thing here either. Quite frankly, though, this one has been in a relatively tight range for a while, so we’re now getting to the top of the consolidation area that we had broken out of. A lot of noisy trading, but New Zealand is highly sensitive to what goes on in the Strait of Hormuz, especially from an energy standpoint, and right now there isn’t much going on, so I think that is one concern.
The RBNZ is expected to raise rates again, but so is the Federal Reserve. It’ll be interesting to see how that plays out. Recently, the US economic numbers have been a little softer. People are starting to temper down the bets on the Fed raising rates, so that’s part of what’s going on here.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) appreciates on Wednesday as the US Dollar (USD) loses ground across the board amid dwindling hopes of immediate Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. The NZD/USD pair has bounced up to session highs beyond 0.5880 at the time of writing after bouncing from 0.5820 lows on Thursday, with bulls eyeing two-month highs right above 0.5900.
Brown Brothers Harriman’s Elias Haddad highlights that “cooling US CPI and PPI inflation in July” have “trimmed the implied odds of a Fed rate hike in September to nearly 30%, the lowest since the June 17 FOMC decision.”
Haddad notes that this repricing “is keeping USD in check and lifting risk appetite despite the ongoing US-Iran conflict,” adding that “today’s US data releases are unlikely to shift the dial on Fed fund futures pricing.”
Technical Analysis: Key resistance is at the 0.5920 area
NZD/USD held above the 200-day SMA on Thursday and has bounced up strongly, trading at 0.5883 at the time of writing and honouring the upward trendline support from late-June lows.
Momentum indicators in the daily chart are neutral to bullish, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 59 hinting at a constructive bias, while a slightly negative Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) warns about the frail upside pressure.
Bulls are looking at the area between 0.5905 and 0.5920 where August 3 and 7 highs meet the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of June's selloff. Further up, the 0.6000 area, where bulls were capped in May and early June, emerges as the next target.
On the downside, initial support, the area between the upward trendline, now at 0.5850, and the 200-day SMA at 0.5831, remains a significant challenge for bears. Below here, the late July lows, near 0.5760, would come into play.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.22%-0.31%-0.22%-0.31%-0.23%-0.54%-0.11%EUR0.22%-0.09%0.00%-0.13%0.00%-0.34%0.11%GBP0.31%0.09%0.11%-0.03%0.09%-0.22%0.21%JPY0.22%0.00%-0.11%-0.07%-0.01%-0.35%0.12%CAD0.31%0.13%0.03%0.07%0.07%-0.24%0.20%AUD0.23%-0.00%-0.09%0.00%-0.07%-0.32%0.13%NZD0.54%0.34%0.22%0.35%0.24%0.32%0.46%CHF0.11%-0.11%-0.21%-0.12%-0.20%-0.13%-0.46%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) underperforms its major currency peers, trading 0.45% down at around 0.5830 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Thursday. The antipodean faces sharp selling pressure as downwardly revised Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) two-year inflation expectations in the third quarter this year have raised doubts over expectations of interest rate hikes.
Earlier in the day, RBNZ Q3 inflation expectations for the two-year timeframe arrived lower at 2.34% Year-on-Year (YoY) from prior projections of 2.53% released in the previous quarter this year.
Lower New Zealand (NZ) inflation expectations are expected to raise doubts over expectations of an interest rate hike by the RBNZ at the September policy meeting.
Earlier, financial markets were seen confident about the RBNZ raising policy rates in September.
RBNZ seen retaining hawkish bias despite mixed labour dataAccording to TD Securities, the latest labour market figures, while mixed, are unlikely to derail the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s tightening bias. The bank argues that “despite the mixed report today, we believe the RBNZ has the room to hike again by 25bps in September given that economic activity continues to recover in Q3,” suggesting policymakers can look through near-term labour market noise as long as the broader recovery remains intact.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) holds onto Wednesday’s gains, driven by ongoing Middle East tensions.
On the domestic front, both the United States (US) headline and core Consumer Price Index (CPI) cooled down, as expected, in July, which could dampen the strength in the US Dollar.
NZD/USD Technical Analysis
NZD/USD extends its correction to near the downward-sloping trend line at 0.5827 after slipping below the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is at 0.5842.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 50.1 points to neutral momentum after the recent pullback from the 0.5890 area.
On the topside, the intraday high at 0.5870 is the immediate resistance, which needs to be broken decisively to revisit the August 7 high at 0.5907. On the downside, first support is seen at the upward-sloping trendline break level at 0.5827; a failure there would likely expose the pair to a deeper correction toward 0.5800, followed by the July 29 low at 0.5761.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
RBNZ FAQs The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is the country’s central bank. Its economic objectives are achieving and maintaining price stability – achieved when inflation, measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), falls within the band of between 1% and 3% – and supporting maximum sustainable employment.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decides the appropriate level of the Official Cash Rate (OCR) according to its objectives. When inflation is above target, the bank will attempt to tame it by raising its key OCR, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money and thus cooling the economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD.
Employment is important for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) because a tight labor market can fuel inflation. The RBNZ’s goal of “maximum sustainable employment” is defined as the highest use of labor resources that can be sustained over time without creating an acceleration in inflation. “When employment is at its maximum sustainable level, there will be low and stable inflation. However, if employment is above the maximum sustainable level for too long, it will eventually cause prices to rise more and more quickly, requiring the MPC to raise interest rates to keep inflation under control,” the bank says.
In extreme situations, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) can enact a monetary policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the RBNZ prints local currency and uses it to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions with the aim to increase the domestic money supply and spur economic activity. QE usually results in a weaker New Zealand Dollar (NZD). QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objectives of the central bank. The RBNZ used it during the Covid-19 pandemic.
NZD/USD volatility sits near two-decade lows Kiwi swaps price aggressive RBNZ tightening Two-year inflation expectations headline crucial RBNZ survey AUD/NZD probes potential bullish breakout NZD/USD bullish momentum fading fast The Survey That Could Shift RBNZ Pricing The Kiwi has been unbelievably quiet in August, but that calm may be living on borrowed time. Volatility is sitting near the lowest levels seen in two decades, Kiwi rates markets are heavily priced for further RBNZ tightening, and today brings the release of a survey that has historically carried meaningful implications for interest rates.
The RBNZ’s Survey of Expectations is probably the most important New Zealand release most have never heard of. Two-year inflation expectations are the number to watch, with a meaningful deviation carrying the potential to jolt the Kiwi out of its funk.
Markets Have Priced Plenty of Hikes Ahead of its release, swaps traders continue to expect a relatively aggressive monetary policy tightening cycle from the RBNZ, even after the modest pullback sparked by the soft New Zealand employment report earlier this month. Implied pricing puts the probability of a hike at the September meeting at 88%, with roughly 3.7 further hikes priced by June next year and close to five by August, on top of the first increase of the cycle delivered last month.
Source: RBNZ, FOREX.com, Bloomberg
That is far steeper than the path implied by the RBNZ’s May forecasts. From the 2.25% OCR prevailing at the time, its track implied around 3.3 hikes by the middle of next year. That differential suggests the hurdle for a further hawkish repricing is high, meaning a modest increase in inflation expectations later today may not be enough. If we were to see a retracement in inflation expectations, it could prove far more meaningful for Kiwi rates and currency.
RBNZ Reaction Function Is More Sensitive to Falls The survey provides several measures of inflation, but it’s the two-year reading that tends to be more influential when it comes to monetary policy. It is more reflective of medium-term price pressures, rather than capturing near-term volatility in food, energy and other prices. Two-year expectations rose to 2.53% in the May survey, putting them well above the 2% midpoint of the RBNZ’s 1–3% inflation target.
Source: RBNZ, FOREX.com
What’s interesting is that the historical relationship is not especially mechanical when expectations rise. Increases of at least 10bp, 15bp and 20bp while two-year expectations were above 2% were followed by a hike at the next meeting only 32%, 27% and 36% of the time respectively. It was only when the increase reached 30bp or more that the response became noticeably more hawkish, with the RBNZ hiking in 60% of cases, although that is based on only five observations.
The reaction has been considerably stronger since 2020. Increases of at least 20bp while two-year expectations were above 2% were followed by a hike at the next meeting in 60% of cases, while all three increases of 30bp or more were followed by a hike.
Source: RBNZ, FOREX.com
More interesting is what happens when inflation expectations fall, particularly when the decline takes the two-year measure back towards the RBNZ’s 2% target midpoint. Historically, that has produced a much stronger reaction function at the following policy meeting than an equivalent increases in expectations.
When two-year expectations fell but remained between 2.00% and 2.25%, the RBNZ did not hike at the next meeting in any observation across more than two decades of data. When they finished between 2.25% and 2.50%, the next-meeting hike rate was just 9%. By contrast, when expectations fell but remained above 2.50%, the RBNZ still hiked 36% of the time.
Kiwi Volatility Goes Cold
Source: LSEG, FOREX.com
While there’s been plenty of political instability in New Zealand over the past week, there's been almost none in the Kiwi. NZD/USD has been remarkably subdued, with 10-day realised volatility falling to 4.1% annualised, putting it in roughly the bottom 1% of observations going back two decades!
A decline in inflation expectations, particularly back towards the RBNZ’s 2% target midpoint, could force traders to rethink the aggressive tightening path and weigh on the Kiwi as a result.
NZD/USD Downside Risk Starts to Build
Source: TradingView
You can see visually how quiet NZD/USD has been over the past fortnight. What has piqued my interest is the pair breaking lower from what resembles a wedge structure in the wake of the US July inflation report, pushing down to test 0.5860, a level that has acted as both support and resistance earlier this year.
The message from the oscillators suggests upside momentum is fading fast. RSI (14) has been setting sequentially lower highs and lower lows and now sits only marginally above the neutral 50 level. MACD has also staged a bearish crossover, although it remains in positive territory. Combined with the recent price action, that suggests the bears may be slowly gaining the upper hand.
If the breakdown extends through 0.5860, attention shifts to the confluence of the 100 and 200-day moving averages, horizontal support around 0.5825 and the uptrend dating back to the late-June low. That is the key downside support zone to watch. A break beneath it would open the door for a deeper retracement towards the 50-day moving average, 0.5762, 0.5747 and 0.5724.
If the price manages to push back into the former compression structure, 0.5900 is the level to watch overhead. A move above there that sticks may encourage bulls to look for a run towards 0.5920, which has previously acted as support, followed by 0.5992.
AUD/NZD Bulls Eye Breakout
Source: TradingView
The price action in AUD/NZD is arguably more interesting, with a firming in RBA rate hike pricing seeing the cross rebound strongly from beneath support at 1.1935. You can’t help but notice the price is now testing the upper end of a structure that resembles a falling wedge, which is a bullish continuation pattern. Having come after a very strong rally over the past year, it suggests the pair may be on the cusp of breaking out and retesting the highs set earlier this year.
The upper boundary of the structure kicks in around 1.2053, which also coincides with horizontal resistance. A break of that level would put the 50-day and 100-day moving averages into play for bulls, with the latter marking an area where the pair stalled in late July after another rebound. A move back above the confluence of the 100-day moving average with 1.2115 resistance would improve the probability of a run towards the recent highs.
If the upper boundary of the structure holds, we may see a potential retracement back towards 1.2000, a level that capped gains previously earlier this month. Beyond that, 1.1935 and the lower boundary of the compression structure, found today around 1.1900, are the next downside levels to watch, along with the key 200-day moving average located just beneath.
Mirroring the rebound seen over the past two weeks, the oscillators have turned more constructive for the bulls. RSI (14) is setting higher highs and higher lows and now sits marginally above the neutral 50 level. MACD has also staged a bullish crossover but remains negative, although it is pushing back towards positive territory. It is still a mixed signal, more neutral in nature, but it does suggest the bears no longer have it their own way.
HomeTechnical AnalysisIntraday Analysis 12.08.2026 Gold Pushes for $4500
USDCAD continues lower
The American dollar continued its journey lower as the sell-off shows no signs of stopping.
The pair is struggling to stay afloat at the 1.3900 zone as sellers pile on the pressure. Buyers attempted to get back into the game after a brief consolidation. Failure to hold the 1.4000 level has now become a firm resistance. 1.3970 is the first resistance, with 1.4080 the target higher.
NZDUSD(New Zealand dollar) spikes lower
The NZDUSD(New Zealand dollar) looks to break out of the recent consolidation.
A brief pullback after hitting 0.5900 gives hope for the greenback to turn around. The pair turns its attention towards the first support at 0.5850. A breach here could trigger a new round of liquidation towards 0.5780. 0.5900 remains the resistance to break as the RSI creeps lower. XAUUSD waiting for the next signal
Gold continues to grind higher to push for another fresh high after falling short at 4400.
The price is still in bullish mode after jumping over $300 since the start of the month. An overbought RSI could see a limited pullback, but all eyes are on a rally past 4400. A fall below the fresh support of 4320 would open the door to a move towards 4240.
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The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) accelerates its reversal against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday, weighed by cautious markets amid growing tensions in the Middle East and political uncertainty at home. NZD/USD bears are testing support at the 0.5860 area, down from last week's highs above 0.5900, against a firmer USD ahead of July’s US inflation data.
New Zealand’s Prime Minister, Christopher Luxon, survived a confidence vote on Wednesday, following a challenge from his defence minister, which adds to evidence of the divergences within the ruling National Party less than three months ahead of New Zealand’s elections
Beyond that, tensions in the Middle East flare up as reports of attacks on two vessels complicate the entangled US-Iran negotiating process even further. The risk-sensitive NZD is coming under pressure although volatility remains subdued, as traders await the release of July’s US Consumer Prices Index (CPI) report, due later on the day.
Technical Analysis: Key support is at the 0.5830 area
NZD/USD trades at 0.5865 after depreciating for three consecutive days, with bears aiming to break the bottom of the last two weeks' trading range, at the 0.5860 area. Momentum indicators in the daily chart remain at positive levels but show a fading impulse. The Relative Strength Index (14) is trending towards the 50 midline, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line is attempting to cross below the Signal line, which is a bearish sign.
A clear break below the mentioned 0.5860 level would expose a key support area in the confluence of the ascending trendline from late June lows, now around 0.5835, and the 200-day SMA, a popular indicator, which would cross the price at around 0.5830. Further down, the next target is the late July lows, near 0.5760.
On the topside, immediate resistance emerges at the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of June's selloff, at 0.5916, and beyond that, the May and June top near 0.6000.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
New Zealand Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against listed major currencies today. New Zealand Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.03%-0.02%0.06%0.04%0.02%0.19%0.14%EUR-0.03%-0.05%0.02%0.02%-0.05%0.20%0.10%GBP0.02%0.05%0.06%0.05%0.02%0.24%0.16%JPY-0.06%-0.02%-0.06%-0.02%-0.06%0.15%0.08%CAD-0.04%-0.02%-0.05%0.02%-0.04%0.19%0.09%AUD-0.02%0.05%-0.02%0.06%0.04%0.22%0.16%NZD-0.19%-0.20%-0.24%-0.15%-0.19%-0.22%-0.07%CHF-0.14%-0.10%-0.16%-0.08%-0.09%-0.16%0.07% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the New Zealand Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent NZD (base)/USD (quote).
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) nudges lower against a firmer US Dollar (USD) for the second consecutive day on Tuesday, as doubts about the fate of the US-Iran peace negotiations hurt market confidence and boost Oil prices higher. The NZD/USD pair remains trading within the last two weeks’ range, but the focus has shifted to the 0.5850 support, from the resistance at the 0.5900 area.
In the US, hawkish comments by Cleveland Federal Reserve (Fed) President Beth Hammack offset the negative impact from the weak US Nonfarm Payrolls report on Monday and provided some support to the US Dollar.
FX volatility, however, remains subdued this week, with investors split about the outcome of September's Fed meeting. In this context, all eyes are on Wednesday's US Consumer Prices Index (CPI) report, which is expected to provide further certainty about the central bank's near-term rate path.
Technical Analysis: Kiwi hovers above a set of key supports ahead of 0.5800
NZD/USD keeps treading wated within a narrow range below 0.5900, yet with technical indicators showing fading bullish momentum, which shifts the focus towards the channel bottom, at a previous resistance area near 0.5850. The 14-period Relative Strength Index in the daily chart is hovering near 59, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) in the same timeframe shows moderately positive levels, although the narrowing histogram suggests that bulls are losing steam.
Bears, however, are likely to face significant hurdles at the mentioned 0.5850 support area and, above all, at the confluence of the key 200-day SMA with the uptrend support line, around 0.5825. Further down, a break of the late-July lows, near 0.5760 would confirm a trend shift.
On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of June's selloff, at 0.5916, ahead of the May and June top near 0.6000.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
US Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.09%0.07%0.00%-0.05%-0.07%0.11%0.07%EUR-0.09%-0.02%-0.07%-0.12%-0.12%0.03%-0.02%GBP-0.07%0.02%-0.06%-0.11%-0.11%0.04%-0.01%JPY0.00%0.07%0.06%-0.05%-0.06%0.09%0.06%CAD0.05%0.12%0.11%0.05%0.00%0.15%0.10%AUD0.07%0.12%0.11%0.06%-0.00%0.15%0.10%NZD-0.11%-0.03%-0.04%-0.09%-0.15%-0.15%-0.04%CHF-0.07%0.02%0.00%-0.06%-0.10%-0.10%0.04% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
The NZD/USD pair seesaws between tepid gains and minor losses through the first half of the European session on Friday as traders opt to move to the sidelines ahead of the release of the crucial US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. The crucial data will play a key role in influencing the near-term US Dollar (USD) price dynamics and provide a fresh impetus to the currency pair.
In the meantime, persistent geopolitical uncertainties and bets for at least one interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) act as a tailwind for the safe-haven USD and cap the NZD/USD pair. However, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) hawkish tilt continues to underpin the Kiwi and helps the NZD/USD pair to hold above the 0.5860 level, or the lower end of its weekly range.
The said area coincides with a horizontal resistance breakpoint and should act as a key pivotal point for short-term traders amid a mixed technical setup. In fact, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near the neutral 50 line, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is ticking slightly negative, which hints at a consolidative tone rather than a strongly trending market.
Nevertheless, the NZD/USD pair maintains a mildly bullish near-term bias and keeps the broader recovery structure intact, above the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart. This, in turn, suggests that any further slide is more likely to attract buyers near the 0.5868 area, while the 200-period SMA at 0.5770 reinforces a deeper structural floor if sellers extend a pullback.
On the flip side, bulls might await sustained strength and acceptance above 0.5900 – marking the highest level since early June and the top boundary of the weekly range – before placing fresh bets. The NZD/USD pair might then extend its recent goodish recovery move from the year-to-date low, around the 0.5625 region, touched in June.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
NZD/USD 4-hour chart
New Zealand Dollar Price This week The table below shows the percentage change of New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against listed major currencies this week. New Zealand Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.21%0.37%0.74%0.07%0.03%0.51%0.54%EUR-0.21%0.17%0.58%-0.13%-0.08%0.31%0.35%GBP-0.37%-0.17%0.04%-0.30%-0.25%0.13%0.18%JPY-0.74%-0.58%-0.04%-0.61%-0.57%-0.14%-0.11%CAD-0.07%0.13%0.30%0.61%0.04%0.48%0.48%AUD-0.03%0.08%0.25%0.57%-0.04%0.37%0.42%NZD-0.51%-0.31%-0.13%0.14%-0.48%-0.37%0.04%CHF-0.54%-0.35%-0.18%0.11%-0.48%-0.42%-0.04% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the New Zealand Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent NZD (base)/USD (quote).
Unemployment hits highest level since June 2015 Underutilisation jumps despite stronger-than-expected hiring\ Kiwi swaps retreat as rate bets unwind AUD/NZD rebounds after support holds Labour market slack builds New Zealand's unemployment rate climbed to its highest level in over a decade in the June quarter, reinforcing the view that abundant labour market slack leaves little risk of a wage breakout that could reignite domestic inflationary pressures.
The unemployment rate climbed to 5.6% in the June quarter, the highest level since the June quarter of 2015, comfortably above the 5.4% expected by both markets and RBNZ. Broader measures softened too, with the underutilisation rate climbing to 13.8% from 12.9%. This measure includes unemployed, people wanting more hours and those on the sidelines available for work, making it a broader gauge of spare capacity in the labour market.
Source: StatsNZ, FOREX.com
Despite the increase in slack, the report masked what was a strong quarter for hiring. Employment increased 0.5%, more than double the 0.2% gain expected by markets and well above the 0.1% increase forecast by the RBNZ. Over the year, it grew by 1.2%.
The reason unemployment increased was a sharp lift in labour force participation, with the rate jumping to 70.7%, well above the 70.3% expected by both markets and the RBNZ. More people entered the workforce than the economy was able to absorb, leaving unemployment and underutilisation higher.
Wage growth wasn't a game changer either. While private sector labour cost inflation edged above the RBNZ's forecast at 2.0% year-on-year, it remains at levels inconsistent with the type of wage breakout that could fuel domestic inflationary pressures.
Markets may have overcooked the RBNZ Despite the softness of the report, it is unlikely to derail the near-term RBNZ outlook with another 25 basis point rate increase still highly likely at next month's meeting, fitting with the hawkish bias delivered in July when policymakers began the tightening cycle.
At the conclusion of that meeting, the RBNZ said "with inflation still above target and economic activity expected to strengthen, some further reduction in monetary stimulus is likely to be required to return inflation to the 2 percent target mid-point", while adding that future cash rate decisions would depend on incoming data, price-setting behaviour and the strength of economic activity.
Beyond next month's meeting, today's data does raise fresh questions over how far rates will ultimately need to move beyond neutral, estimated by the RBNZ to be around 3%.
Source: LSEG, FOREX.com
That was reflected in New Zealand's two-year swap rate, a key market gauge of expectations for the future path of the cash rate. The rate fell to 3.61% following the release, the lowest level since mid-July after briefly dipping beneath 3.60%. That's a notable reversal given it traded as high as 3.78% in late July as markets ramped up expectations for a more aggressive tightening cycle.
The move matters because two-year swap rates heavily influence the pricing of fixed-rate mortgages in New Zealand, making them one of the primary channels through which changes in RBNZ policy are transmitted to households and the broader economy.
Risk appetite calls the shots for NZD/USD
Source: TradingView
For NZD/USD, the domestic rates story is superseded by broader risk appetite as the primary directional driver, helping to explain why the Kiwi has only edged lower following the labour market report.
More importantly, the pullback has done little to threaten last week's break above resistance at 0.5860. Having bounced from around that level in each of the past two sessions, it remains the immediate level to watch on the downside. Below, the confluence of the 50 and 100-day moving averages, along with minor support at 0.5825, marks the next downside zone of note before the uptrend from the June lows comes into view.
On the topside, the pair stalled above 0.5900 on Monday, leaving that and more persistent resistance at 0.5920 as the immediate hurdles. A break above the latter would open the door for a retest of the 0.5992 double top established earlier this year.
Momentum indicators continue to favour buying dips over selling rallies. RSI (14) remains above the neutral 50 level despite losing some upside momentum in recent sessions, while MACD continues to hold above both its signal line and zero, maintaining the bullish bias established in early July.
AUD/NZD tries to turn the tide
Source: TradingView
Where relative rate expectations matter far more is in the crosses, including AUD/NZD. Combined with stronger-than-expected Australian household spending data for June released on Tuesday, New Zealand's soft labour market report has helped the pair rebound after a failed attempt to break below support at 1.1935.
Having held on this occasion, AUD/NZD is now pushing back towards 1.2000. Above there, former support at 1.2053 is the next hurdle, followed by the confluence of the 50 and 100-day moving averages and horizontal resistance at 1.2115.
Should the broader downtrend reassert itself, the recent lows beneath 1.1935 and the nearby 200-day moving average remain the immediate downside focus.
Momentum indicators have become less bearish in recent sessions. RSI (14) has turned higher from oversold territory and is pushing back towards the neutral 50 level, while MACD has started to curl back towards its signal line while remaining in negative territory. It suggests downside momentum is fading, leaving the near-term directional outlook looking far more balanced than it did only a few days ago.
The NZD/USD pair seesaws between tepid gains and minor losses through the first half of the European session on Tuesday, stalling the previous day's retracement slide from a two-month high – levels just above the 0.5900 mark. Spot prices currently trade around the 0.5870 region, nearly unchanged for the day, as traders seem hesitant to place aggressive directional bets amid the uncertainty surrounding US-Iran peace talks.
Iran denied that any negotiations were taking place with the US, sparking an angry backlash from President Donald Trump and dampening hopes for a diplomatic resolution to end a five-month-old conflict. Furthermore, recovering crude oil prices revive inflation fears and fuel US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike bets, which further lends support to the US Dollar (USD and caps the upside for the NZD/USD pair. However, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) hawkish tilt helps limit losses for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD).
The recent bounce from the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart and a breakout through the 0.5865 supply zone were seen as key triggers for NZD/USD bulls. This, in turn, underpins a constructive near-term bullish bias while spot prices consolidate above the said resistance-turned-support. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near 60 and away from overbought territory, even as the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has slipped marginally below its zero line.
Mixed momentum indicators, although supportive, hint at a mild loss of upside conviction rather than a full-fledged reversal. Hence, any further slide below 0.5865 is more likely to find decent support and remain limited by the 200-period SMA at 0.5757, where buyers are likely to defend the broader recovery structure. On the top side, a move beyond the recent swing high, near 0.5909, will set the stage for further gains. Nevertheless, the bullish bias would remain intact as long as the pair stays above the 200-period SMA floor.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
NZD/USD 4-hour chart
US Dollar Price This week The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.36%0.40%0.51%0.19%0.26%0.54%0.45%EUR-0.36%0.03%0.09%-0.16%-0.00%0.18%0.09%GBP-0.40%-0.03%-0.30%-0.21%-0.05%0.13%0.04%JPY-0.51%-0.09%0.30%-0.16%-0.02%0.22%0.12%CAD-0.19%0.16%0.21%0.16%0.16%0.39%0.25%AUD-0.26%0.00%0.05%0.02%-0.16%0.17%0.08%NZD-0.54%-0.18%-0.13%-0.22%-0.39%-0.17%-0.09%CHF-0.45%-0.09%-0.04%-0.12%-0.25%-0.08%0.09% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
The Kiwi Dollar extends its three-day rally, climbing above 0.5850 and is poised to challenge 0.5900 amid improving risk appetite and broad US Dollar weakness. The clearance of the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) supports the bullish trend, as traders eye the May monthly high at 0.5995.
NZD/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlookThe daily chart shows that market structure is becoming more constructive, indicating further upside in the NZD/USD pair. After surpassing the confluence of the 100- and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) at around 0.5821/23, the pair is poised to hurdle the 0.5900 figure.
Momentum has clearly shifted bullish. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is bullish and aiming towards the overbought territory. Should be remembered that the 80 reading is more precise, delineating extreme overextended uptrends.
If NZD/USD clears 0.5900, the next stop is the May 29 high at 0.5995. Above is 0.6000 followed by the February 12 daily peak at 0.6077, before testing the yearly peak at 0.6094.
Downwards, the first support is the psychological level of 0.5850. Below is the confluence of the 100- and 200-day SMAs, at around 0.5821/23, ahead of 0.5800. Below is the 50-day SMA at 0.5790.
NZD/USD Price Chart – Daily
NZD/USD daily chart New Zealand Dollar FAQs The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair.
Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
NZD/USD slipped to around 0.5860 after weaker-than-expected Chinese PMI data reinforced concerns over slowing demand. The US dollar rebounded as traders reassessed the Federal Reserve's policy outlook following this week's meeting. Improving New Zealand consumer confidence failed to offset concerns about China's economic slowdown, the country's largest export market. The New Zealand Dollar weakened against its US counterpart on Friday, with NZD/USD extending losses to trade around 0.5860 as disappointing economic data from China reignited concerns over the outlook for regional growth. The move came as investors reacted to a sharper-than-expected contraction in Chinese business activity, a development that carries significant implications for New Zealand given China’s position as the country’s largest trading partner. At the same time, the US Dollar regained traction after Thursday’s selloff, with markets continuing to digest the Federal Reserve’s latest policy decision and the prospect that US interest rates could remain elevated for longer.
Although domestic data from New Zealand painted a more encouraging picture of household confidence, external factors continued to dominate price action. Slowing Chinese demand, together with renewed demand for the US Dollar, outweighed improving sentiment at home and kept the Kiwi under pressure heading into the final trading session of the week.
Why Is NZD/USD Falling Today? The primary catalyst behind Friday’s decline was a weaker-than-expected batch of Chinese Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data, which suggested the world’s second-largest economy lost momentum in July. Official figures showed the Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.2 from 50.3 in June, slipping back into contraction territory and missing economists’ expectations. Meanwhile, the Non-Manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.0 from 50.2, signalling that weakness was not confined to the factory sector but had spread across the broader economy.
The figures reinforced concerns that China’s recovery remains fragile despite previous policy support from Beijing. For New Zealand, whose economy is heavily dependent on exports of dairy products, meat, timber and other commodities to China, weaker Chinese activity often translates into expectations of softer export demand and slower economic growth. As a result, the New Zealand Dollar tends to react quickly to disappointing Chinese data, making it one of the most China-sensitive currencies in the G10 complex.
US Dollar Rebounds as Markets Reassess Fed Outlook The US Dollar also provided headwinds for NZD/USD after recovering from Thursday’s sharp decline. While the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged at its latest meeting, investors continue to debate whether policymakers will need to tighten monetary policy further if inflation remains stubbornly high.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh reiterated that the central bank remains committed to restoring price stability and stands ready to adjust policy if necessary. Although he avoided offering explicit guidance on the timing of future rate moves, markets interpreted the Fed’s overall message as keeping the door open to another rate increase should inflation fail to moderate. That shift in sentiment helped the Greenback recover against most major currencies after suffering broad-based losses immediately following the policy announcement.
Additional support for the US Dollar came from stronger revisions to the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey. Consumer confidence improved slightly from the preliminary reading, while both one-year and five-year inflation expectations remained elevated, reinforcing expectations that inflation risks have not yet fully subsided.
Improving Consumer Confidence Offers Limited Support On the domestic front, New Zealand released more encouraging economic data, with the ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index rising eight points to 99.3 in July, marking its strongest reading since February. Households also became more optimistic about economic conditions over both the one-year and five-year horizons, suggesting that higher interest rates and easing inflation pressures are gradually improving consumer sentiment.
However, the stronger confidence figures had little impact on the currency market. Traders remained focused on external developments, particularly China’s slowing economy and the broader direction of the US Dollar. Until global growth concerns begin to ease, positive domestic indicators are likely to play a secondary role in determining the Kiwi’s direction.
China’s Slowdown Remains the Biggest Risk for the Kiwi China’s economic performance continues to be one of the most important drivers of the New Zealand Dollar. Any sustained weakness in manufacturing activity, consumer spending or property investment has the potential to reduce demand for New Zealand exports, ultimately weighing on economic growth and the country’s terms of trade.
At the same time, investors remain alert to the possibility of additional stimulus measures from Beijing. Any meaningful fiscal or monetary support aimed at stabilising growth could improve market sentiment and provide renewed support for commodity-linked currencies, including the New Zealand Dollar. Until then, concerns over slowing Chinese demand are likely to remain a significant drag on the Kiwi.
NZD/USD Technical Analysis NZD/USD remains under pressure after slipping below 0.5860, with the pair extending its recent corrective decline. Price action continues to favour sellers after failing to sustain gains above the 0.5900 psychological level, while momentum indicators suggest bearish pressure remains intact in the near term.
Immediate support is seen around 0.5850, followed by the recent swing low near 0.5800. On the upside, initial resistance is located at 0.5900, with stronger selling interest likely to emerge around 0.5950. A sustained break above that zone would be needed to signal that bullish momentum is returning.
NZD/USD Outlook The near-term outlook for NZD/USD remains tilted to the downside as markets continue to weigh slowing Chinese economic activity against expectations that US interest rates could remain restrictive for longer. While improving consumer confidence points to greater resilience within New Zealand’s domestic economy, external developments are likely to remain the dominant driver of the currency.
Investors will now look ahead to upcoming US economic data for further clues on the Federal Reserve’s next move, while any fresh announcements from Chinese authorities aimed at supporting growth could influence sentiment toward the New Zealand Dollar in the sessions ahead.
Why is NZD/USD falling today?
NZD/USD is under pressure after China’s manufacturing and services PMIs unexpectedly fell into contraction, raising concerns about demand from New Zealand’s largest trading partner, while the US dollar rebounded.
Why does China’s economy affect the New Zealand dollar?
China is New Zealand’s largest export market. Weaker Chinese economic activity can reduce demand for New Zealand exports such as dairy and agricultural products, weighing on the Kiwi.
Why does China’s economy affect the New Zealand Dollar?
China is New Zealand’s largest trading partner and a major buyer of its dairy, meat and agricultural exports. Strong Chinese economic growth typically supports the New Zealand Dollar, while weaker Chinese data often puts pressure on the currency.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) ticks lower against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, but remains steady near eight-week highs at 0.5885, with downside attempts contained above a previous resistance area at 0.5860 so far.
The Kiwi Dollar has rallied nearly 1.5% this week, boosted by a weak USD after the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy meeting on Wednesday. The US central bank left its Federal Funds Rate unchanged at the 3.50%-3.75% range, as expected, but the lack of guidance shown by Chairman Warsh was taken by the market as a dovish sign, and sent the USD tumbling against its main peers.
Kiwi bulls have lost some momentum on Friday, as Chinese NBS Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) figures showed that business activity contracted unexpectedly in July, weighed by weak domestic demand and the disruptive impact of typhoons. China is New Zealand’s major trading partner and the NZD is closely correlated to Chinese economic growth.
Technical Analysis: Correcting lower within a bullish trend
NZD/USD trades at 0.5875, keeping a constructive near-term bias although the overbought Relative Strength Index (RSI) levels suggest that the pair is ripe for a deeper correction. The 4-Hour RSI remains above 70, hinting at a stretched condition, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains above its signal line, which suggests that upside pressure is still intact.
A sharper reversal below the mid-July highs in the mentioned 0.5860 level is likely to find support in the area between the ascending trendline from June 25 lows, now at 0.5785, and the July 23, 27 and 29 lows, around 0.5865. On the topside, above Thursday's highs at 0.5885, bulls might find resistance at the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the June sell-off, at 0.5911 ahead of June's peak, in the 0.6000 area.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
New Zealand Dollar Price This week The table below shows the percentage change of New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against listed major currencies this week. New Zealand Dollar was the strongest against the US Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-1.09%-0.91%-1.99%-0.52%-0.51%-1.22%-1.16%EUR1.09%0.15%-0.92%0.60%0.60%-0.14%-0.07%GBP0.91%-0.15%-1.19%0.44%0.44%-0.29%-0.23%JPY1.99%0.92%1.19%1.49%1.51%0.77%0.75%CAD0.52%-0.60%-0.44%-1.49%-0.02%-0.71%-0.65%AUD0.51%-0.60%-0.44%-1.51%0.02%-0.73%-0.67%NZD1.22%0.14%0.29%-0.77%0.71%0.73%0.06%CHF1.16%0.07%0.23%-0.75%0.65%0.67%-0.06% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the New Zealand Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent NZD (base)/USD (quote).
Asian FX intervention may not be finished yet BOJ surprise hike risk has increased marginally Softer US data adds to dollar pressure AUD/USD and NZD/USD break to fresh highs AUD/USD and NZD/USD ripped higher on Friday, fuelled by broad-based US dollar weakness following apparent coordinated intervention from Asian foreign exchange authorities, softer-than-expected US economic data and a surge in risk appetite after strong earnings from Microsoft and Amazon.
Coordinated intervention rattles the US dollar The biggest driver behind the Australian and New Zealand dollars' outperformance was suspected intervention by Japanese authorities, likely undertaken in coordination with South Korean authorities and with at least tacit support from the United States. The move came with the US dollar already under pressure after the Fed opted against raising rates on Wednesday, providing an ideal backdrop to maximise the impact.
Source: TradingView
An important consideration for traders on Friday is that intervention often doesn't occur in one sitting. Earlier this year, Japanese authorities stepped into the market over several sessions rather than relying on a single operation. If authorities return to the market again, particularly around the Bank of Japan policy decision later in the session, it would point to renewed upside risks for AUD/USD and NZD/USD.
Softer US data adds to dollar headwinds Amplifying the effectiveness of intervention, US economic data broadly disappointed on Thursday. Core PCE inflation rose 0.1% in June, below the 0.2% expected, while the annual rate eased from 3.4% to 3.3%. The unrounded increase was 0.14%, meaning the downside surprise was marginal rather than dramatic.
Accompanying personal income and spending figures were also disappointing. Personal income rose just 0.2%, undershooting expectations, while personal spending increased 0.3%. With spending continuing to outpace income, the household savings rate fell to 2.7%, its lowest level in four years. That questions the sustainability of the strong rebound in consumer spending seen during the June quarter.
US Q2 GDP also disappointed, weighed down by a sizeable drag from net trade that masked underlying strength in business investment and consumer spending. Annualised growth slowed to 1.5%, below the 2.1% consensus forecast. Consumer spending rebounded to a 3.2% annualised pace after a subdued first quarter, while business investment surged 15.2%, continuing to be supported by AI-related capital expenditure. The downside surprise instead reflected a widening trade deficit and inventory drawdowns, which subtracted almost 1.7 percentage points from headline growth.
Risk appetite returns with a vengeance Alongside softer US economic data and suspected intervention, the Aussie and Kiwi ripped higher as risk appetite surged. Strong earnings updates from Microsoft and Amazon fuelled the rally, with Microsoft adding more market value in a single session than any listed company on record.
Given their sensitivity to global risk sentiment, the improvement in sentiment helped drive gains not only against the US dollar, but across most major crosses, with the yen the one exception.
All eyes turn to Tokyo When it comes to what may influence the Aussie and Kiwi on Friday, the events of the past 24 hours suggest risk appetite, the Bank of Japan policy decision and the threat of further intervention from Asian FX authorities will matter far more than economic data. That was reinforced by the total lack of reaction to an upside surprise in Tokyo's July inflation report released early Friday.
Intervention raises the stakes for the BOJ I previewed the Bank of Japan meeting in detail earlier this week, and much of that analysis still holds true. However, the intervention episode over the past 24 hours has increased the risk, at least marginally, of the Bank of Japan moving pre-emptively to raise rates today rather than later in the year, with a full hike already priced into the overnight index swap curve by year-end.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has made it clear he wants the Bank of Japan to continue normalising policy. If Japanese authorities are already working alongside their South Korean and US counterparts to strengthen the yen through intervention, it raises the question of whether the Bank of Japan may choose to oblige by delivering a surprise rate hike today.
While such a shock outcome would point to a sharply lower USD/JPY and potentially broader US dollar weakness, it would not necessarily be an outright positive for the Australian and New Zealand dollars. They may initially pop against the greenback, but given their sensitivity to shifts in risk appetite, would likely underperform lower-beta currencies if a surprise Bank of Japan hike sparked a broader risk-off episode.
As for when the Bank of Japan decision is likely to drop, it remains a frustration for traders worldwide that there is still no set time for the announcement. Generally, it tends to arrive around 12:30pm Tokyo time, although it can come earlier or later depending on how long the meeting runs. However, the general rule of thumb is that the longer it takes for the decision to drop, the greater the perceived risk that there may be some form of policy shock on the way. So expect markets to become extra twitchy if we extend well beyond 12:30pm Tokyo time.
AUD/USD breakout puts higher levels in play
Source: TradingView
AUD/USD had been coiling in what resembles an ascending triangle before a false downside break followed the softer-than-expected Australian June quarter underlying inflation report on July 29. However, that move has now been completely reversed, with the pair not only breaking back into the triangle structure, but also reclaiming the 50-day moving average and clearing resistance at 0.7020, the top of the structure.
With the price now holding above 0.7020, it provides a level to build long setups around, looking for an extension of the bullish move. Longs could be considered above that level, with a stop below, initially targeting the 100-day moving average at 0.7053 before resistance at 0.7080. A break above the latter would open the door for a potential run towards 0.7200.
The oscillators marginally favour long setups over shorts. RSI(14) has pushed above the neutral 50 level and continues to edge higher, while MACD has flipped into positive territory after staging a bullish crossover earlier this month. It's not a definitively bullish signal, but it does suggest upside momentum is building.
Should AUD/USD slip back below 0.7020 and hold there, it would instead point to a pullback towards the lower boundary of the triangle structure, which comes in around 0.6975 today.
Kiwi joins the breakout party
Source: TradingView
NZD/USD offers a similar technical picture to AUD/USD, breaking higher after grinding higher within an uptrend over recent weeks. The latest surge has seen it break above the confluence of the 50, 100 and 200-day moving averages, along with resistance at 0.5825 and, importantly, 0.5860, a level that has repeatedly acted as both support and resistance over the past couple of months.
The break above 0.5860, taking the pair to its highest level since early June, suggests scope for a further extension of the bullish move. For those looking to play from the long side, longs could be considered while the pair holds above 0.5860, with a stop below, initially targeting 0.5920, another level that has repeatedly acted as support and resistance this year. A break above that would open the door for a retest of the double top at 0.5992 set in May and early June.
The oscillators favour long setups over shorts. RSI(14) has climbed to 64, with the bullish signal reinforced by MACD, which has crossed above the signal line, continues to diverge and remains in positive territory. That suggests upside momentum is building, favouring long setups.
Should NZD/USD slip back below 0.5860 and hold there, it would instead point to a pullback towards the moving average confluence zone and the uptrend, which comes in around 0.5775 today.
HomeTechnical AnalysisIntraday Analysis 29.07.2026 S&P stuck in a bear trap
EURGBP (Sterling) tests critical top
EURGBP (Sterling) was left licking its wounds after the Euro found another higher high on its way to another peak.
The rally continued after a break above 0.8550 forced sellers to bail out. A move above 0.8570 would be a sign of strength, showing further commitment to keep the price afloat. Some bargain hunting might trigger a bounce as the RSI remains fully overbought with bulls aiming for the 0.8600 level. Otherwise, a bearish breakout would extend a pullback towards 0.8510.
NZDUSD attempts to break higher
The US dollar continues to drag the Kiwi lower as prices look for support.
A previous move below 0.5800 prompted some buyers to trim their exposure. 0.5800 becomes the key obstacle to move before the pair can break free of its corrective path, potentially opening the door to 0.5870. Stiff selling could push the pair towards 0.5730, a critical support to stop the pair from slipping lower. US 500 diving lower
The S&P 500 looks to break free from its current descending channel.
A close below 7500 supports the bearish trajectory, with no signs of slowing down. A retracement could begin if short-term sellers take profit, as the RSI shows a clear bullish divergence. The pullback could be seen as an opportunity as medium-term rally players step in. 7300 is an important support if bears continue, otherwise, the target of 7500 could be on the horizon very soon.
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NZD/USD trades nearly unchanged around the 0.5785 area on Tuesday, struggling to extend its earlier recovery despite a modest decline in the US Dollar (USD). The pair rebounded from recent lows but lost momentum as investors avoided large positions ahead of Wednesday’s Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary-policy announcement.
The Greenback came under pressure after the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index declined to 90.8 in July from an upwardly revised 92.2 in June. US private employers also added an average of only 15K jobs per week during the four weeks ending July 11, according to the NER Pulse report, indicating that hiring slowed for a fifth consecutive week.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) receives some support from the sharp decline in oil prices, as lower energy costs improve the outlook for New Zealand, which relies heavily on imported fuel. However, cautious market sentiment and uncertainty surrounding the Fed’s guidance continue to limit the Kiwi’s recovery.
The Fed is expected to leave interest rates unchanged on Wednesday. Investors will focus on the policy statement and Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference for signals regarding future adjustments. A hawkish message could strengthen the US Dollar and push NZD/USD back toward its recent lows, while cautious guidance could support another recovery attempt.
Technical Analysis:On the 4-hour chart, NZD/USD trades at 0.5788. The pair is hovering just above both the 20-period simple moving average (SMA) at 0.5783 and the 100-period SMA at 0.5787, hinting at a fragile attempt to build a base after recent weakness, though the cluster of nearby horizontal levels keeps the near-term bias broadly neutral. The Relative Strength Index (14) at 47.8 sits slightly below the 50 line, suggesting a lack of strong directional momentum as price consolidates around its short- and medium-term averages.
On the topside, initial resistance emerges at 0.5791, followed by another nearby barrier at 0.5799, where recent supply has tended to cap rebounds; a break above these caps would open the way toward 0.5907, then 0.5930 and 0.5965. On the downside, immediate support is reinforced by the 100-period SMA at 0.5787 and the horizontal level at 0.5785, with the 20-period SMA at 0.5783 and the subsequent floor at 0.5779 guarding against a deeper pullback; a sustained move below this latter zone would undermine the nascent base-building tone.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
NZD/USD trades around 0.5770 on Tuesday at the time of writing, slightly lower on the day. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) remains pressured by the firm US Dollar (USD), which continues to benefit from safe-haven demand amid persistent geopolitical tensions.
Markets remain focused on developments in the Middle East. The United States (US) has paused its military campaign against Iran after nearly two weeks of strikes, while US President Donald Trump said that talks with Tehran were progressing and that a diplomatic resolution remained possible. However, optimism has been frayed after reports of drone attacks in Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Iraq. Trump also warned that US strikes could resume if negotiations fail, helping the US Dollar retain its safe-haven appeal.
Investors are nevertheless reluctant to place aggressive bets ahead of the two-day Federal Reserve (Fed) policy meeting, which begins later on Tuesday. The US central bank is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, but markets will closely watch the policy statement and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference for fresh clues on the future path of monetary policy.
Meanwhile, the latest labor market data continue to point to a cooling US employment picture. The Automatic Data Processing (ADP) NER Pulse report showed that private employers added an average of 15K jobs per week over the four weeks ending July 11, down from 16.5K previously. Despite this further moderation in hiring, the US Dollar maintains a bullish tone, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) holding close to its yearly highs.
In New Zealand, expectations that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) could deliver another interest rate hike in September may help limit downside pressure on the New Zealand Dollar against the Greenback.
New Zealand Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against listed major currencies today. New Zealand Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.03%-0.01%0.08%-0.07%0.31%0.07%0.08%EUR-0.03%-0.04%0.06%-0.13%0.27%0.03%0.05%GBP0.00%0.04%0.09%-0.05%0.32%0.08%0.11%JPY-0.08%-0.06%-0.09%-0.16%0.22%-0.03%0.02%CAD0.07%0.13%0.05%0.16%0.40%0.12%0.17%AUD-0.31%-0.27%-0.32%-0.22%-0.40%-0.23%-0.23%NZD-0.07%-0.03%-0.08%0.03%-0.12%0.23%0.05%CHF-0.08%-0.05%-0.11%-0.02%-0.17%0.23%-0.05% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the New Zealand Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent NZD (base)/USD (quote).
The Pound to New Zealand Dollar (GBP/NZD) exchange rate fell to a six-week low last week before recovering as UK political developments, high-impact economic data and the escalating US-Iran conflict drove volatility.
At the time of writing, GBP/NZD was trading at NZ$2.3020, virtually unchanged over the week.
Latest — Exchange Rates:
Pound to New Zealand Dollar (GBP/NZD): 2.299017 (-0.09%)
Euro to New Zealand Dollar (EUR/NZD): 1.962339 (-0.07%)
New Zealand Dollar to Dollar (NZD/USD): 0.580926 (+0.32%)
DAILY RECAP:
The Pound (GBP) wobbled at the start of the week as markets were caught off guard by Prime Minister Andy Burnham’s surprise choice for Chancellor. Burnham appointed former Defence Secretary John Healey as head of the Treasury.
Sterling then began to trend lower amid concerns about the government’s commitment to fiscal discipline as Burnham started to outline plans to cut some taxes.
Political developments overshadowed several high-impact UK economic releases, including the latest labour market report and consumer price index.
The CPI figures were mixed and failed to prompt decisive movement in the Pound. Headline inflation cooled more than forecast, easing from 2.8% to 2.6%, while core inflation unexpectedly held at 2.6% rather than slowing to 2.5%.
While GBP was able to recover against riskier currencies as the market mood soured, it struggled elsewhere.
Strong data on Friday also failed to boost Sterling, with UK retail sales in June and the services PMI for July both unexpectedly accelerating.
Meanwhile, the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) strengthened at the start of the week, shrugging off weaker-than-forecast trade figures and escalating tensions in the Middle East.
The ‘Kiwi’ then extended its gains as New Zealand inflation exceeded expectations, accelerating from 3.1% to 4.1% in the second quarter. This fuelled bets on further interest rate increases from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ).
After striking a six-week high against the Pound on Tuesday, the New Zealand Dollar retreated through the remainder of the week.
With the crisis in the Middle East intensifying, a deeply risk-averse market mood weighed heavily on NZD and allowed GBP/NZD to recover.
Near-Term GBP/NZD Forecast: BoE Interest Rate Decision in Focus Looking ahead, the Bank of England’s interest rate decision on Thursday is in the spotlight for GBP investors this week.
The Bank is expected to hold interest rates steady, which would leave markets focused on the BoE’s forward guidance.
If policymakers indicate that rate hikes remain likely in the coming months, particularly following the recent rise in energy prices, Sterling could strengthen.
Ahead of the decision, political developments could continue to drive volatility in the Pound.
As for the New Zealand Dollar, the latest business and consumer confidence indexes could influence NZD, with the releases due overnight on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively.
If morale among businesses and consumers deteriorated in July, the ‘Kiwi’ could weaken.
On 21 July, Stats NZ reported an acceleration in inflation: the Consumer Price Index rose 1.5% in the second quarter, while the annual inflation rate climbed to 4.1%, its highest level in more than two years and slightly above analysts’ consensus forecast of 4.0%. The increase was driven primarily by higher fuel prices amid tensions in the Middle East. The data was released after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised the official cash rate to 2.50% on 8 July, reinforcing expectations of further monetary tightening in September. However, the impact proved short-lived, as escalating tensions between the US and Iran boosted demand for the US dollar as a safe-haven asset, causing the New Zealand dollar to surrender part of its recent gains during the second half of the week.
Technical Outlook
On the four-hour chart, NZD/USD has been developing a short-term uptrend since 26 June, with a trendline forming as the pair advanced towards 0.5870, where resistance emerged. The pair subsequently broke below the trendline, fell beneath the lower boundary of the current market profile and declined to the 0.5765 area, where the green support level is now located. Following a rebound from this zone, the pair moved on to test the lower boundary of the market profile at 0.5810. If this level holds and the price turns lower, the green support at 0.5765 could provide support. Should the pair continue to rise, attention may return to the POC area at 0.5840.
It is worth noting the close proximity of the upper boundary of the market profile at 0.5860 and the red resistance zone at 0.5870, making this a potentially strong resistance area. The RSI + MAs indicator currently reads 46, 37 and 46. It is also worth noting that the slower moving average has yet to leave the neutral zone, while the RSI briefly entered oversold territory before returning to neutral, casting doubt on the strength of the current breakout.
Summary The pair’s near-term direction will likely depend on whether sellers can defend the lower boundary of the market profile. From a fundamental perspective, interest in the pair will hinge on whether the support provided by the stronger US dollar amid tensions in the Middle East proves more durable than the positive impact of New Zealand’s unexpectedly strong inflation data.
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The New Zealand Dollar gains over 0.30% against the US Dollar, poised to test key resistance levels, with the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.5793, slightly below the 0.5800 figure. At the time of writing, the NZD/USD trades at 0.5789, after bouncing off daily lows of 0.5767.
NZD/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlookThe Kiwi Dollar seems to recover during the day, but the overall trend is downwards, until the pair reclaims the May 29 high of 0.5995. Momentum turned bullish as depicted in the Relative Strength Index (RSI), but seems to be fading as the index is about to pierce bearish territory.
As of writing, the NZD/USD is testing key resistance below 0.5800. A breach of the latter will expose the confluence of the 100- and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) at 0.5823/24, followed by the July 21 high at 0.5874. Above this area, the next resistance is the 0.5900, followed by the May 29 high, beneath 0.6000.
On the other hand, if NZD/USD breaches the low of the week (LOW) of 0.5762, it opens the door for further downside. The next key support is the July 13 low of 0.5743, followed by 0.5700. Beneath lies the July 7 high at 0.5672.
NZD/USD Price Chart – Daily
NZD/USD daily chart New Zealand Dollar Price This week The table below shows the percentage change of New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against listed major currencies this week. New Zealand Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.51%0.95%0.92%0.58%-0.22%0.77%1.20%EUR-0.51%0.45%0.35%0.07%-0.73%0.26%0.69%GBP-0.95%-0.45%-0.09%-0.38%-1.17%-0.19%0.28%JPY-0.92%-0.35%0.09%-0.25%-1.09%-0.20%0.38%CAD-0.58%-0.07%0.38%0.25%-0.76%0.05%0.67%AUD0.22%0.73%1.17%1.09%0.76%0.99%1.46%NZD-0.77%-0.26%0.19%0.20%-0.05%-0.99%0.47%CHF-1.20%-0.69%-0.28%-0.38%-0.67%-1.46%-0.47% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the New Zealand Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent NZD (base)/USD (quote).
As we all know, the Iran war is severely restricting the flow of Crude Oil through the Strait of Hormuz.
Saudi Arabia started to send more tankers out via the Red Sea, but now, we have a completely different set of problems in the Bab al-Mandab Strait, which is driving crude even higher.
In today’s Market Outlook, let’s take a look at Forex trading on EURNZD, NZDUSD, AUDUSD, AUDNZD, AUDCAD, Silver, XAGUSD, Gold, XAUUSD, WTI, and Brent Crude Oil.
So, the question for traders is, “when can we go short on WTI and Brent CFDs and watch price action fall to normal levels?”
There is no easy answer to this question, but the current US administration is under enormous pressure to end the war, but that may mean nothing in the short term.
This has caused more geopolitical uncertainty, and investors tested the $4,000 level of support on gold, with price heading up past $4,100 this week.
Silver followed gold, as it has been doing for months.
On the technical side, price action has broken through the upper trend line that we have been following for months.
On the weekly charts, we see falling wedges, which are almost always bullish patterns.
But keep in mind, these are weekly charts, so this may take a long time to play out.
This morning we saw Australian Employment Figures way higher than analysts’ expectations, and look what happened.
If we follow the rules of the News Catalyst Fade, we want to trade with the trend or within the range.
We note that in almost every case, the news drove price action WITH the trade buy; we can still look for reversals on other time frames.
We will keep an eye on AUDUSD, for example, where price is at a key level of resistance.
Also on AUDNZD, we see price at a key level with an overbought stochastic oscillator.
And, on AUDCAD, we see a strong ranging market with price at an upper trend line and an overbought stochastic oscillator.
Please feel free to check all other AUD pairs.
We see that NZD has been the strongest currency this month, but we also see that this may be changing.
For example, on NZDUSD, we see a pullback through the lower trend line, but we also see a falling wedge and an oversold stochastic oscillator.
Inflation in New Zealand is not under control, so we will keep an eye on all NZD pairs.
On EURNZD, we see the pullback as well, but with price action forming a rising wedge, and we will keep an eye on this as well.
And tomorrow’s ECB Interest Rate decision, so keep an eye on these and all EUR pairs.
That’s all for now.
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The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) extends losses for the third consecutive day against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, with the NZD/USD pair dipping below 0.5800, after being rejected at the 0.5875 area earlier in the week. The Kiwi Dollar is giving away previous gains as higher Oil prices and concerns about the escalation of the Middle East conflict have offset the positive impact of the hawkish Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) monetary policy stance.
The dismal market mood is finally taking a toll on the risk-sensitive Kiwi, as tensions in the Middle East remain high and reports of attacks on vessels sailing through the Red Sea raise concerns that the conflict might extend through the region, boosting fears of disruptions in Oil supply.
Against this background, the barrel of Brent Oil has crossed the $90 line for the first time in the last six weeks. This has prompted investors to shift their focus from inflation to the negative impact on economic growth of another energy shock, which will, ultimately, limit the central bank’s margin to tighten its monetary policy.
Technical Analysis: Key support is at the 0.5750 area
NZD/USD trades just below 0.5800, with bears gathering pace as intraday momentum indicators tread further within negative territory. The 4-hour Relative Strength Index (14) has retreated to 35, approaching oversold levels, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains slightly negative, altogether hinting at waning downside momentum but not yet at a clear reversal.
The pair might find some support at previous resistance around 0.5790 (July 10, 13 highs), although the key support area lies at the confluence of the immediate trendline support and the July 13 low, in the area of 0.5750. A confirmation below here would put bears in control, and bring the July 6 and 8 lows, around 0.5675, into focus.
Upside attempts, on the contrary, have been contained below 0.5825 on Thursday, while the key resistance area is in the area between the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the June selloff, at 0.5855, and Tuesday's high, at the mentioned 0.5875, which has capped bulls several times during the current month.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
New Zealand Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against listed major currencies today. New Zealand Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.08%0.02%0.11%-0.13%-0.08%0.26%0.05%EUR0.08%0.11%0.21%-0.05%0.00%0.36%0.13%GBP-0.02%-0.11%0.11%-0.17%-0.11%0.25%0.02%JPY-0.11%-0.21%-0.11%-0.25%-0.20%0.13%-0.08%CAD0.13%0.05%0.17%0.25%0.04%0.39%0.16%AUD0.08%-0.00%0.11%0.20%-0.04%0.36%0.16%NZD-0.26%-0.36%-0.25%-0.13%-0.39%-0.36%-0.24%CHF-0.05%-0.13%-0.02%0.08%-0.16%-0.16%0.24% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the New Zealand Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent NZD (base)/USD (quote).
The kiwi has strengthened meaningfully against most peers this month. However, against the US dollar specifically, NZD/USD remains well below its 2026 highs, trading in the mid-0.58 area versus January’s peak near 0.6075.
New Zealand’s Q2 inflation data, released this week, blew past expectations: annual CPI accelerated to 4.1%, above both forecasts and the RBNZ’s own 3.9% projection, reinforcing the case for further tightening after the central bank’s surprise hike to 2.50% earlier in July—its first in over three years.
The dollar side of the equation remains the real wildcard. June’s payrolls report badly missed expectations, coming in at just 57,000, with prior months revised sharply lower, undercutting the Fed’s near-term tightening case despite still-sticky core inflation near 2.9%. Markets currently assign roughly even odds to a September hike, leaving NZD/USD’s next move hostage to next week’s Fed decision and any further escalation in Middle East tensions.
NZD/USD Technical Analysis
As the 4-hour chart shows, NZD/USD has arrived at a genuinely pivotal zone around 0.5850, a level that has repeatedly flipped between support and resistance throughout the year. Currently acting as resistance, this area has become the focal point of a tug-of-war that has now played out for several sessions.
Bullish Scenario After bouncing from the medium-term support at 0.5600–0.5650, price staged a decisive recovery, breaking above the 200-period EMA and successfully retesting it as new support, all while forming a clear pattern of higher highs and higher lows. This strength has been reinforced by supportive central bank rhetoric and macro data favoring the kiwi. A confirmed break above 0.5850, coinciding with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the late-June decline, would open the path toward the next resistance and psychological level at 0.6000.
Bearish Scenario A rejection at this critical zone, however, would hand momentum back to sellers, sending price first toward a retest of the 200-period EMA near 0.5781. A break below that level would expose the well-defended 0.5600 support once again.
With the Fed decision looming and price sitting at such a decisive technical juncture, NZD/USD looks set for a significant move next week. Can the kiwi withstand the coming dollar volatility?
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XAUUSD (the Gold) saw a lift as the yellow metal moved away from the critical 4000 support.
As the market remains volatile, with all eyes on Iran’s next move, prices look to break the 4100 level. Only a break above 4100, the top range of the current spike, might put the precious metal back on track towards 4140. Otherwise, a fall back towards the fresh support of 4000 would open the door to 3960.
USDCAD steadily climbing higher
The Canadian dollar attempts to turn around a potential fightback from the greenback.
The pair remains under pressure, as an 80-pip move higher has hit resistance after a rejection at 1.4080. The buy side is attempting to continue the drive, which saw a bounce from the 1.4000 region. A break past the current resistance at 1.4080 could see a continuation, with 1.4150 the next target for buyers. NZDUSD another higher high
The American dollar looks to fight back against most of its competitors as sentiment shifts again.
The price has been moving higher after a continuous upshift in price action for the majority of this month. 0.5820 is the latest support, and its breach would trigger a reversal of liquidation and make 0.5760 the next target. 0.5900 is fresh resistance, as an overbought RSI leads to a bearish divergence.
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Headline inflation beats, underlying pressures easing Tradables prices undershoot RBNZ's forecast September RBNZ hike likely, longer-term pricing looks excessive NZD/USD bulls retain technical advantage above support AUD/NZD breakdown keeps sellers firmly in control A beat, but with important caveats New Zealand consumer prices rose 1.5% in the June quarter, lifting the annual inflation rate to 4.1%. While that was above the 4.0% increase expected by economists, it fell just short of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's 4.2% forecast released in May.
That suggests inflation remains uncomfortably high and is likely to keep the RBNZ on course to tighten policy further. However, the underlying details were more encouraging, with the broadest measure of core inflation easing further and domestic price pressures evolving broadly as the central bank had anticipated.
The composition of the report was arguably more important than the headline. While annual inflation accelerated, much of the increase reflected higher tradeable prices, which are influenced by developments offshore rather than domestic demand.
Source: FOREX.com, RBNZ, StatsNZ
Tradeable inflation accelerated to 4.9% over the year, driven largely by a 27.5% jump in petrol prices and a 71.0% surge in other vehicle fuels and lubricants. However, that was well below the RBNZ's 5.6% forecast, explaining why headline inflation also undershot the central bank's expectations.
By contrast, non-tradeable inflation, which is viewed as a better gauge of domestically generated price pressures, eased to 3.4% and matched the RBNZ's forecast. Electricity and local authority rates provided the largest upward pressure, while lower real estate services prices helped offset some of the increase.
The broadest measure of underlying inflation, CPI excluding the food group, household energy subgroup and vehicle fuels, also continued to ease, slipping to 2.5% from 2.6%. While it remains in the upper half of the RBNZ's 1–3% target band, the continued moderation suggests underlying inflation pressures are still moving in the right direction rather than becoming more entrenched.
Traders should now watch the release of the RBNZ's Sectoral Factor Model at 3pm Wellington time. The measure, which strips out temporary price movements to provide another gauge of underlying inflation, printed at 2.7% in the March quarter and could influence moves in New Zealand financial markets should it deliver a meaningful surprise.
What it means for the RBNZ
Source: Bloomberg
When all said and done, today's report is unlikely to materially alter the RBNZ's near-term thinking. Inflation remains above target and the central bank has already adopted an explicit tightening bias. Another 25 basis point increase in September still looks very likely and is close to fully priced, with the risk of a second move by October also deemed slightly more likely than not ahead of November's general election.
Further out, though, market pricing looks far too punchy. Overnight index swaps continue to imply close to five additional quarter-point increases by May next year, taking the OCR to around 3.75%.
That profile looks too aggressive given the broader economic backdrop. While inflation remains high, underlying price pressures continue to ease and there is still ample slack in the labour market, with little evidence that wage growth is accelerating in a way that would warrant taking policy deep into restrictive territory.
The next major test for that view will come on 13 August, when the RBNZ releases its latest Survey of Expectations. Of particular interest will be the two-year inflation expectations measure, which climbed to 2.53% in May from 2.37% previously.
Another meaningful acceleration would strengthen the case for additional tightening, potentially even a 50 basis point move, which can't be ruled out given some of the hawkish rhetoric from external members of the Monetary Policy Committee. But if inflation expectations fail to accelerate again, it would cast doubt on the degree of tightening currently priced into the OIS curve.
At face value, today's report may be interpreted as hawkish given headline inflation exceeded economists' forecasts. I'm not convinced that's the right read. The underlying detail tells a different story, particularly with the broadest measure of core inflation continuing to ease and tradables inflation coming in well below the RBNZ's own forecast.
That's just one of several factors to consider when assessing directional risk for the Kiwi dollar. While domestic rates remain an important driver, recent price action has also become increasingly sensitive to broader risk appetite and changes in US interest rate expectations. Starting with NZD/USD, here's how the technical picture stacks up.
The battleground for Kiwi bulls
Source: TradingView
The RBNZ's hawkish tilt has helped support NZD/USD over recent weeks, allowing the pair to reclaim a cluster of key medium and long-term moving averages.
For now, though, it's a game of ping-pong. Buyers continue to emerge on dips towards the 100-day moving average, while rallies are being capped ahead of resistance at 0.5860. That's the initial range to watch.
The oscillators continue to favour the bulls. RSI (14) remains comfortably above the neutral 50 level at 63, while MACD has crossed above its signal line and remains in positive territory.
Should the pair break decisively above 0.5860, the next upside level to watch is 0.5920, an area that repeatedly acted as both support and resistance during April, May and June. Above that, attention shifts to 0.5992, the double top established earlier this year.
On the downside, initial support is provided by the 100, 200 and 50-day moving averages, along with horizontal support at 0.5796, another level that has repeatedly acted as both support and resistance in recent weeks. A break beneath the latter could open the door for a retracement towards 0.5747, with 0.5724 and the uptrend from the June lows the next levels to watch.
Breakdown keeps bears in control
Source: TradingView
As flagged earlier this month, AUD/NZD has broken below the uptrend from the June 2025 lows, with the pair also slipping beneath the 50 and 100-day moving averages. Along the way, it took out support at 1.2053 and 1.2000 before finding buyers at 1.1950.
For now, the pair is stuck in a narrow range between 1.2000 and 1.1950. We did see a bullish engulfing candle print on Monday following renewed upside in energy prices as the conflict in the Middle East escalated. However, that has not generated follow-through buying, with rallies continuing to stall ahead of 1.2000.
The message from the oscillators remains bearish. RSI (14) continues to set lower highs and sits well below the neutral 50 level at 33. That bearish message is being reinforced by MACD, which remains below its signal line and in negative territory.
Selling rallies and downside breaks remains the preferred strategy. Should the pair break decisively beneath 1.1950, there is little in the way of technical support until the 200-day moving average at 1.1835, followed by 1.1797, former resistance before February's upside breakout.
Should the pair reclaim 1.2000, the next upside levels to watch are 1.2053, followed by the confluence of the 100-day moving average and resistance at 1.2115. For now, though, selling rallies and downside breaks remains the preferred strategy.
From a fundamental perspective, with New Zealand's inflation report now out of the way, attention will quickly shift to Australia's labour force report on Thursday. Alongside broader risk sentiment, the release is likely to be influential on markets' assessment of the directional risks for the RBA cash rate moving forward.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) resumed its broader bullish trend against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, following a mild pullback over the previous two trading days. Bulls are pushing against the resistance area between 0.5860 and 0.5865, so far unaffected by the risk-off mood amid the hostilities in Iran.
The Kiwi Dollar has been drawing support from the favourable monetary policy divergence between the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). New Zealand’s central bank hiked interest rates earlier in July and hinted at further tightening in the coming months, while, in the US, the soft inflation figures seen last week have dampened hopes of a rate hike in the near term.
This, so far, is offsetting the negative impact on the risk-sensitive Kiwi from the escalating tensions between the US and Iran and the surging Crude Oil prices.
Technical Analysis: Indicators hint at an overstretched rally
NZD/USD trades at 0.5862, holding a constructive near-term bias as it clings to gains above the reclaimed ascending trend-line support. The 4-hour Relative Strength Index (14), near 70, shows overbought conditions, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has started to soften, hinting that upside strength might be losing momentum.
On the topside, bulls are pushing against the mentioned resistance area ahead of 0.5865 (June 15, July 15 highs). Further up, a previous support-turned-resistance, around 0.5910 (June 1 low), looks a plausible target.
A bearish reaction, on the contrary, is likely to be tested at the trendline support, now around 0.5835, ahead of Friday's low at 0.5825. A deeper pullback might look for support at the July 10 and 13 highs, just below 0.5800.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
US Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.04%-0.19%-0.02%-0.05%-0.26%-0.27%-0.09%EUR0.04%-0.12%0.02%-0.02%-0.21%-0.25%-0.05%GBP0.19%0.12%0.15%0.10%-0.10%-0.12%0.04%JPY0.02%-0.02%-0.15%-0.02%-0.24%-0.22%-0.09%CAD0.05%0.02%-0.10%0.02%-0.21%-0.19%-0.07%AUD0.26%0.21%0.10%0.24%0.21%0.00%0.18%NZD0.27%0.25%0.12%0.22%0.19%-0.01%0.14%CHF0.09%0.05%-0.04%0.09%0.07%-0.18%-0.14% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
NZD/USD fluctuates between minor gains and losses on Thursday as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) hawkish stance supports the Kiwi, while a stronger US Dollar (USD) caps the upside. At the time of writing, the pair trades around 0.5842 after climbing to a one-month high earlier this week.
The Greenback is regaining its footing after a two-day decline triggered by softer-than-expected US inflation data. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, trades around 100.70 after falling to 100.35 on Wednesday, its lowest level since June 18.
From a technical perspective, NZD/USD holds above the 50-day, 100-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), clustered between 0.5807 and 0.5831, supporting a constructive near-term outlook.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 63, indicating bullish momentum without reaching overbought territory. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains above zero, suggesting that buyers retain the upper hand.
On the downside, immediate support lies at the 100-day SMA of 0.5831, followed by the 200-day SMA at 0.5819 and the 50-day SMA at 0.5807. Below these levels, the horizontal supports at 0.5770 and 0.5700 could come into play.
On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the horizontal barrier near 0.5870. A sustained break above this level could open the door to additional gains.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
New Zealand Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against listed major currencies today. New Zealand Dollar was the strongest against the British Pound.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.18%0.46%0.15%-0.03%0.02%0.10%0.34%EUR-0.18%0.28%-0.02%-0.19%-0.08%-0.06%0.16%GBP-0.46%-0.28%-0.28%-0.46%-0.37%-0.33%-0.10%JPY-0.15%0.02%0.28%-0.19%-0.05%-0.04%0.19%CAD0.03%0.19%0.46%0.19%0.13%0.15%0.37%AUD-0.02%0.08%0.37%0.05%-0.13%0.04%0.23%NZD-0.10%0.06%0.33%0.04%-0.15%-0.04%0.21%CHF-0.34%-0.16%0.10%-0.19%-0.37%-0.23%-0.21% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the New Zealand Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent NZD (base)/USD (quote).
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) clings to Tuesday’s gains around 0.5820 during the European trading session on Wednesday. The Kiwi pair reflects strength in a risk-on market environment, driven by easing fears of Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hikes this year.
In the European trade, S&P 500 futures trade 0.25% higher around 7,563, indicating strong demand for riskier assets.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, the odds of the Fed raising interest rates in the policy meeting this month have eased to 16.6% from 31% seen last week.
Market participants have scaled back hawkish Fed bets as the United States (US) inflation cooled down at a faster-than-expected pace in June.
Meanwhile, investors await the US Producer Price Index (PPI) data for June, which will be published at 12:30 GMT. Ahead of the US producer inflation data, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades marginally higher to near 101.00 after recovering early losses.
NZD/USD technical analysis
NZD/USD trades marginally higher at around 0.5820. The pair has edged back above the 50.00% Fibonacci retracement at 0.5810 while holding over the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 0.5746, which together hint at a constructive near-term tone.
A rising Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 60.8 reinforces improving bullish momentum, though prices are still capped by the 61.80% retracement at 0.5853 just overhead.
On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the 61.80% Fibonacci retracement at 0.5853, followed by the 78.60% retracement at 0.5915, with the recent swing high at the 100.00% level of 0.5994 acting as a stronger barrier if gains extend. On the downside, initial support is seen at the reclaimed 50.00% retracement at 0.5810, ahead of a minor floor around the 38.20% level at 0.5766 and the 20-day EMA at 0.5746, while deeper declines would expose the 23.60% retracement at 0.5712 and the structural anchor near 0.5625.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Risk sentiment FAQs In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest.
Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit.
The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity.
The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.
The NZD/USD pair holds steady above the 0.5800 mark through the early European session on Wednesday and, for now, seems to have stalled the previous day's late pullback from a nearly one-month high, around the 0.5845 zone. The latter also marks a confluence hurdle – comprising the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the May-June downfall – and should act as a key pivotal point for short-term traders.
Looking at the broader picture, the NZD/USD pair now seems to have found acceptance above the 50% retracement level and seems poised to extend the recent recovery from the 0.5625 area, or the year-to-date low touched in June. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is in positive territory, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near 60. This validates the near-term constructive outlook and backs the case for additional gains.
That said, bulls might still need to wait for a sustained move beyond the 0.5845 confluence hurdle before placing fresh bets, as escalating US-Iran tensions might continue to act as a tailwind for the US Dollar (USD). Nevertheless, a break above the said hurdle would open the way toward the 61.8% retracement at 0.5853, with stronger resistance seen higher at 0.5915 and the 0.5995 swing high, where the broader bearish bias would start to fade if reclaimed.
On the downside, initial support emerges at the 50% retracement near 0.5809, ahead of the 38.2% Fibo. level at 0.5765 and deeper cushions at 0.5711 and 0.5623. The downside, however, seems limited in the wake of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) hawkish tilt. Furthermore, receding bets for a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike this year might keep USD bulls on the back foot, suggesting that the path of least resistance for the NZD/USD pair is to the upside.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
NZD/USD daily chart
US Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.08%-0.15%-0.02%-0.07%-0.16%-0.04%-0.00%EUR0.08%-0.12%0.06%0.00%-0.13%-0.02%0.07%GBP0.15%0.12%0.15%0.11%-0.01%0.09%0.18%JPY0.02%-0.06%-0.15%-0.05%-0.15%-0.04%-0.00%CAD0.07%-0.00%-0.11%0.05%-0.10%-0.04%0.06%AUD0.16%0.13%0.01%0.15%0.10%0.08%0.14%NZD0.04%0.02%-0.09%0.04%0.04%-0.08%0.08%CHF0.00%-0.07%-0.18%0.00%-0.06%-0.14%-0.08% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
The New Zealand Dollar extended its rally, registering solid gains versus the US Dollar after the latest US inflation report, which tempered speculation of a Fed rate hike and trimmed investors' bets by half. At the time of writing, the NZD/USD is trading at 0.5809, up by more than 1%.
NZD/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlookThe NZD/USD trend is downwards, with the pair still trading below the 50- and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) at around 0.5810-0.5819. Earlier, the pair reached a daily high of 0.5843, threatening to decisively clear the 200-day SMA, but sellers stepped in, driving spot prices towards the 0.5800 figure.
From a momentum standpoint, buyers are gaining traction. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) turned bullish on July 9, but the price action consolidated around 0.5750 for three days before the next leg up to 0.5800.
If the NZD/USD clears the confluence of the 50- and 200-day SMAs, this opens the path to challenge the 100-day SMA at 0.5834. A breach of the latter will expose the March 19 daily high at 0.5892, ahead of 0.5900. On further strength, the next area of interest would be the February 26 high at 0.6014.
In a bearish scenario, the NZD/USD must clear the low of the day (LOD) at 0.5744, which could exacerbate a drop towards the 0.5700 level. Below this, the next area of demand is the July 8 daily low at 0.5672.
NZD/USD Price Chart — Daily
NZD/USD daily chart New Zealand Dollar Price This week The table below shows the percentage change of New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against listed major currencies this week. New Zealand Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.16%-0.04%0.28%-0.68%-0.40%-0.85%0.19%EUR0.16%0.12%0.44%-0.54%-0.30%-0.70%0.36%GBP0.04%-0.12%0.30%-0.62%-0.38%-0.81%0.29%JPY-0.28%-0.44%-0.30%-1.04%-0.68%-1.17%-0.12%CAD0.68%0.54%0.62%1.04%0.38%-0.13%0.94%AUD0.40%0.30%0.38%0.68%-0.38%-0.41%0.55%NZD0.85%0.70%0.81%1.17%0.13%0.41%1.11%CHF-0.19%-0.36%-0.29%0.12%-0.94%-0.55%-1.11% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the New Zealand Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent NZD (base)/USD (quote).
EURUSD (The euro) continues to retreat after failing to break back above the recent high, which saw prices push towards a fresh peak.
The pair bounced off the support zone at 1.1380 as the RSI bounced away from the oversold region. Further resistance at the 1.1460 region would send the euro lower, breaking the previous support zone. A successful bounce and a close below 1.1380 would commit more sellers and push the pair towards 1.1300.
NZDUSD tests key resistance area
The New Zealand dollar attempts to continue its progression as the pair jumps over 100 pips in recent sessions.
The price was moving towards the previous swing high at 0.5800, which, if broken, opens another 50-pip jump. Still, the recent bounce could be a sign of bearish pressure building since the market open. A decisive break below 0.5700 would force the remaining buyers out and open the door to a test at the previous swing low of 0.5660. US30 recapturing the recent high
The Dow steadies as traders await more news of a jump in tech stocks, and then the next step in the Middle Eastern conflcit.
A close above the daily resistance of 53000 would help bulls regain control of the direction. A confirmation past this level would lead to the index gearing up for another attempt at a record high above 53400. The recent dip at 52200 is the first support, and 51600 is the bulls’ second layer of defence. Market Strategist at Orbex David Kindley is a renowned fundamental analyst with over 10 years of trading experience in the financial markets. With a keen eye for macroeconomics and a special focus on trading psychology, David is passionate about helping everyday investors make informed trading decisions through his thorough research and analysis.
The NZD/USD pair catches aggressive bids during the Asian session on Tuesday and jumps to a nearly four-week top in the last hour amid a combination of supporting factors.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) strengthens as hawkish comments from Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Chief Economist Paul Conway raised the prospect of further interest rate hikes. The US Dollar (USD), on the other hand, pauses a two-day rally as bulls opt to wait for the release of the latest US consumer inflation figures and US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh's testimony. This, in turn, provides a goodish lift to the NZD/USD pair and backs the case for additional gains.
From a technical perspective, spot prices now seem to have found acceptance above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the May-June downfall. Moreover, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has turned positive with the line advancing above zero, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around 57, hinting at improving momentum. That said, it will still be prudent to wait for a move beyond the 0.5810-0.5820 confluence before placing fresh bullish bets.
The said area comprises the 50% retracement level and the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), above which the NZD/USD pair could aim to test the 61.8% Fibo. level at 0.5853. The latter reinforces a broader cap ahead of 0.5914 and 0.5992. On the flip side, immediate support is seen at the 38.2% retracement at 0.5767, ahead of the 23.6% level at 0.5714, while a deeper pullback would expose the recent swing low area near the 0.5628 region.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
NZD/USD daily chart
New Zealand Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against listed major currencies today. New Zealand Dollar was the strongest against the US Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.09%-0.10%-0.10%-0.18%-0.19%-0.64%-0.12%EUR0.09%-0.01%0.00%-0.09%-0.11%-0.54%-0.03%GBP0.10%0.01%0.02%-0.06%-0.08%-0.53%-0.02%JPY0.10%0.00%-0.02%-0.08%-0.12%-0.56%-0.05%CAD0.18%0.09%0.06%0.08%-0.03%-0.46%0.05%AUD0.19%0.11%0.08%0.12%0.03%-0.43%0.09%NZD0.64%0.54%0.53%0.56%0.46%0.43%0.51%CHF0.12%0.03%0.02%0.05%-0.05%-0.09%-0.51% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the New Zealand Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent NZD (base)/USD (quote).
The New Zealand Dollar recoiled during Monday’s North American session, down 0.12%, as the Greenback posted gains versus most G8 FX currencies amid rising geopolitical tensions and hawkish comments from a Fed Governor. The NZD/USD trades at 0.5754, down from daily highs of 0.5789.
NZD/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlookThe Kiwi Dollar remains downward biased, with the pair standing below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.5819, for the twenty-fifth consecutive trading day. This is despite the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) raising rates and opening the door to further tightening.
Momentum, as measured by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), suggests that buyers are in charge, though, as of writing, it signals further consolidation ahead.
For a bearish continuation, the NZD/USD must drop below the psychological 0.5700 figure. Below this area lies the July 8 low of 0.5672, followed by 0.5650. Once hurdled, the next stop is the 0.5600 milestone.
Upwards, the first resistance is the July 10 daily high at 0.5794, ahead of 0.5800. Above this level lies the confluence of the 50- and 200-day SMAs at around 0.5812-0.5819, respectively, followed by the 100-day SMA at 0.5835 and by the 0.5850 mark.
NZD/USD Price Chart - Daily
NZD/USD daily chart New Zealand Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against listed major currencies today. New Zealand Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.25%0.33%0.42%-0.00%0.47%0.13%0.66%EUR-0.25%0.08%0.17%-0.26%0.25%-0.09%0.42%GBP-0.33%-0.08%0.09%-0.34%0.17%-0.15%0.38%JPY-0.42%-0.17%-0.09%-0.43%0.05%-0.25%0.28%CAD0.00%0.26%0.34%0.43%0.50%0.21%0.73%AUD-0.47%-0.25%-0.17%-0.05%-0.50%-0.28%0.25%NZD-0.13%0.09%0.15%0.25%-0.21%0.28%0.53%CHF-0.66%-0.42%-0.38%-0.28%-0.73%-0.25%-0.53% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the New Zealand Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent NZD (base)/USD (quote).
NZD/USD remains on the front foot on Friday and is heading for a second consecutive weekly gain after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) raised the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points (bps) on Wednesday and signaled that further policy tightening may be needed, boosting the New Zealand Dollar (NZD).
At the time of writing, the pair is trading around 0.5771 after hitting an intraday high of 0.5794, its highest level since June 18.
From a technical perspective, NZD/USD has been recovering after bottoming at 0.5626 in late June, its lowest level since November 2025. The latest leg higher pushed NZD/USD above the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.5717, reinforcing the bullish near-term outlook.
Momentum has also improved, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) climbing above the neutral 50 threshold after recovering from near-oversold territory. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram remains in positive territory, suggesting bearish momentum is fading rather than confirming a sustained bullish reversal, as NZD/USD continues to trade below a cluster of key moving averages.
On the topside, initial resistance emerges at the psychological 0.5800 mark, closely aligning with the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.5815, followed by the 200-day SMA at 0.5820 and the 100-day SMA at 0.5838.
A decisive break above these levels could pave the way for a move toward the horizontal resistance levels at 0.5900 and 0.6000.
On the downside, immediate support lies at the 21-day SMA at 0.5718. A move back below this level would weaken the near-term bullish bias and bring the late-June low of 0.5626 back into focus.
New Zealand Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against listed major currencies today. New Zealand Dollar was the strongest against the US Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.06%-0.09%-0.66%-0.24%-0.26%-0.30%-0.06%EUR0.06%-0.03%-0.55%-0.18%-0.21%-0.25%0.00%GBP0.09%0.03%-0.54%-0.15%-0.18%-0.21%0.02%JPY0.66%0.55%0.54%0.41%0.39%0.32%0.57%CAD0.24%0.18%0.15%-0.41%-0.03%-0.07%0.17%AUD0.26%0.21%0.18%-0.39%0.03%-0.05%0.17%NZD0.30%0.25%0.21%-0.32%0.07%0.05%0.23%CHF0.06%-0.01%-0.02%-0.57%-0.17%-0.17%-0.23% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the New Zealand Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent NZD (base)/USD (quote).
USDJPY (The yen) bounced against the dollar after finding resistance at the 162.75 level.
• The latest move above 162.50 has prompted some buyers to cover and could pave the way for a bearish continuation.
• A move below 162.00 would confirm the downward skew and attract more bears in the hope of a further extension.
• 161.60 is the next target lower, which could again test the firm double bottom at 160.80.
NZDUSD propels higher
The New Zealand dollar kept its composure after jumping over 100 pips in yesterday’s session.
• The pair moved higher as the recent greenback sell-off signalled an ongoing rhetoric that the Fed will cut rates soon.
• 0.5700 is the closest support to see if there is any renewed interest in the greenback.
• On the flip side, a break above 0.5780 would give the Kiwi an extension, for a charge towards the recent peak at 0.5860.
US30 finds support
The Dow remains buoyant as prices attempt to recover as many losses as possible.
• Since a confirmation bounce around 52200, a slight increase in value followed by stiff consolidation has seen a top at 52600.
• A move past the said price will provide the next bullish signal as buyers hope for a test back towards 53000.
• On the downside, 52200 is firm support, and 52000 is the bulls’ second layer of defence.
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Market Strategist at Orbex David Kindley is a renowned fundamental analyst with over 10 years of trading experience in the financial markets. With a keen eye for macroeconomics and a special focus on trading psychology, David is passionate about helping everyday investors make informed trading decisions through his thorough research and analysis.
