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The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) extends losses for the third consecutive day against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, with the NZD/USD pair dipping below 0.5800, after being rejected at the 0.5875 area earlier in the week. The Kiwi Dollar is giving away previous gains as higher Oil prices and concerns about the escalation of the Middle East conflict have offset the positive impact of the hawkish Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) monetary policy stance.

The dismal market mood is finally taking a toll on the risk-sensitive Kiwi, as tensions in the Middle East remain high and reports of attacks on vessels sailing through the Red Sea raise concerns that the conflict might extend through the region, boosting fears of disruptions in Oil supply.

Against this background, the barrel of Brent Oil has crossed the $90 line for the first time in the last six weeks. This has prompted investors to shift their focus from inflation to the negative impact on economic growth of another energy shock, which will, ultimately, limit the central bank’s margin to tighten its monetary policy.

Technical Analysis: Key support is at the 0.5750 area

NZD/USD trades just below 0.5800, with bears gathering pace as intraday momentum indicators tread further within negative territory. The 4-hour Relative Strength Index (14) has retreated to 35, approaching oversold levels, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains slightly negative, altogether hinting at waning downside momentum but not yet at a clear reversal.

The pair might find some support at previous resistance around 0.5790 (July 10, 13 highs), although the key support area lies at the confluence of the immediate trendline support and the July 13 low, in the area of 0.5750. A confirmation below here would put bears in control, and bring the July 6 and 8 lows, around 0.5675, into focus.

Upside attempts, on the contrary, have been contained below 0.5825 on Thursday, while the key resistance area is in the area between the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the June selloff, at 0.5855, and Tuesday's high, at the mentioned 0.5875, which has capped bulls several times during the current month.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

New Zealand Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against listed major currencies today. New Zealand Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.08%0.02%0.11%-0.13%-0.08%0.26%0.05%EUR0.08%0.11%0.21%-0.05%0.00%0.36%0.13%GBP-0.02%-0.11%0.11%-0.17%-0.11%0.25%0.02%JPY-0.11%-0.21%-0.11%-0.25%-0.20%0.13%-0.08%CAD0.13%0.05%0.17%0.25%0.04%0.39%0.16%AUD0.08%-0.00%0.11%0.20%-0.04%0.36%0.16%NZD-0.26%-0.36%-0.25%-0.13%-0.39%-0.36%-0.24%CHF-0.05%-0.13%-0.02%0.08%-0.16%-0.16%0.24% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the New Zealand Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent NZD (base)/USD (quote).

Headline inflation beats, underlying pressures easing Tradables prices undershoot RBNZ's forecast September RBNZ hike likely, longer-term pricing looks excessive NZD/USD bulls retain technical advantage above support AUD/NZD breakdown keeps sellers firmly in control A beat, but with important caveats New Zealand consumer prices rose 1.5% in the June quarter, lifting the annual inflation rate to 4.1%. While that was above the 4.0% increase expected by economists, it fell just short of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's 4.2% forecast released in May.

That suggests inflation remains uncomfortably high and is likely to keep the RBNZ on course to tighten policy further. However, the underlying details were more encouraging, with the broadest measure of core inflation easing further and domestic price pressures evolving broadly as the central bank had anticipated.

The composition of the report was arguably more important than the headline. While annual inflation accelerated, much of the increase reflected higher tradeable prices, which are influenced by developments offshore rather than domestic demand.

Source: FOREX.com, RBNZ, StatsNZ

Tradeable inflation accelerated to 4.9% over the year, driven largely by a 27.5% jump in petrol prices and a 71.0% surge in other vehicle fuels and lubricants. However, that was well below the RBNZ's 5.6% forecast, explaining why headline inflation also undershot the central bank's expectations.

By contrast, non-tradeable inflation, which is viewed as a better gauge of domestically generated price pressures, eased to 3.4% and matched the RBNZ's forecast. Electricity and local authority rates provided the largest upward pressure, while lower real estate services prices helped offset some of the increase.

The broadest measure of underlying inflation, CPI excluding the food group, household energy subgroup and vehicle fuels, also continued to ease, slipping to 2.5% from 2.6%. While it remains in the upper half of the RBNZ's 1–3% target band, the continued moderation suggests underlying inflation pressures are still moving in the right direction rather than becoming more entrenched.

Traders should now watch the release of the RBNZ's Sectoral Factor Model at 3pm Wellington time. The measure, which strips out temporary price movements to provide another gauge of underlying inflation, printed at 2.7% in the March quarter and could influence moves in New Zealand financial markets should it deliver a meaningful surprise.

What it means for the RBNZ

Source: Bloomberg

When all said and done, today's report is unlikely to materially alter the RBNZ's near-term thinking. Inflation remains above target and the central bank has already adopted an explicit tightening bias. Another 25 basis point increase in September still looks very likely and is close to fully priced, with the risk of a second move by October also deemed slightly more likely than not ahead of November's general election.

Further out, though, market pricing looks far too punchy. Overnight index swaps continue to imply close to five additional quarter-point increases by May next year, taking the OCR to around 3.75%.

That profile looks too aggressive given the broader economic backdrop. While inflation remains high, underlying price pressures continue to ease and there is still ample slack in the labour market, with little evidence that wage growth is accelerating in a way that would warrant taking policy deep into restrictive territory.

The next major test for that view will come on 13 August, when the RBNZ releases its latest Survey of Expectations. Of particular interest will be the two-year inflation expectations measure, which climbed to 2.53% in May from 2.37% previously.

Another meaningful acceleration would strengthen the case for additional tightening, potentially even a 50 basis point move, which can't be ruled out given some of the hawkish rhetoric from external members of the Monetary Policy Committee. But if inflation expectations fail to accelerate again, it would cast doubt on the degree of tightening currently priced into the OIS curve.

At face value, today's report may be interpreted as hawkish given headline inflation exceeded economists' forecasts. I'm not convinced that's the right read. The underlying detail tells a different story, particularly with the broadest measure of core inflation continuing to ease and tradables inflation coming in well below the RBNZ's own forecast.

That's just one of several factors to consider when assessing directional risk for the Kiwi dollar. While domestic rates remain an important driver, recent price action has also become increasingly sensitive to broader risk appetite and changes in US interest rate expectations. Starting with NZD/USD, here's how the technical picture stacks up.

The battleground for Kiwi bulls

Source: TradingView

The RBNZ's hawkish tilt has helped support NZD/USD over recent weeks, allowing the pair to reclaim a cluster of key medium and long-term moving averages.

For now, though, it's a game of ping-pong. Buyers continue to emerge on dips towards the 100-day moving average, while rallies are being capped ahead of resistance at 0.5860. That's the initial range to watch.

The oscillators continue to favour the bulls. RSI (14) remains comfortably above the neutral 50 level at 63, while MACD has crossed above its signal line and remains in positive territory.

Should the pair break decisively above 0.5860, the next upside level to watch is 0.5920, an area that repeatedly acted as both support and resistance during April, May and June. Above that, attention shifts to 0.5992, the double top established earlier this year.

On the downside, initial support is provided by the 100, 200 and 50-day moving averages, along with horizontal support at 0.5796, another level that has repeatedly acted as both support and resistance in recent weeks. A break beneath the latter could open the door for a retracement towards 0.5747, with 0.5724 and the uptrend from the June lows the next levels to watch.

Breakdown keeps bears in control

Source: TradingView

As flagged earlier this month, AUD/NZD has broken below the uptrend from the June 2025 lows, with the pair also slipping beneath the 50 and 100-day moving averages. Along the way, it took out support at 1.2053 and 1.2000 before finding buyers at 1.1950.

For now, the pair is stuck in a narrow range between 1.2000 and 1.1950. We did see a bullish engulfing candle print on Monday following renewed upside in energy prices as the conflict in the Middle East escalated. However, that has not generated follow-through buying, with rallies continuing to stall ahead of 1.2000.

The message from the oscillators remains bearish. RSI (14) continues to set lower highs and sits well below the neutral 50 level at 33. That bearish message is being reinforced by MACD, which remains below its signal line and in negative territory.

Selling rallies and downside breaks remains the preferred strategy. Should the pair break decisively beneath 1.1950, there is little in the way of technical support until the 200-day moving average at 1.1835, followed by 1.1797, former resistance before February's upside breakout.

Should the pair reclaim 1.2000, the next upside levels to watch are 1.2053, followed by the confluence of the 100-day moving average and resistance at 1.2115. For now, though, selling rallies and downside breaks remains the preferred strategy.

From a fundamental perspective, with New Zealand's inflation report now out of the way, attention will quickly shift to Australia's labour force report on Thursday. Alongside broader risk sentiment, the release is likely to be influential on markets' assessment of the directional risks for the RBA cash rate moving forward.

NZD/USD remains on the front foot on Friday and is heading for a second consecutive weekly gain after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) raised the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points (bps) on Wednesday and signaled that further policy tightening may be needed, boosting the New Zealand Dollar (NZD).

At the time of writing, the pair is trading around 0.5771 after hitting an intraday high of 0.5794, its highest level since June 18.

From a technical perspective, NZD/USD has been recovering after bottoming at 0.5626 in late June, its lowest level since November 2025. The latest leg higher pushed NZD/USD above the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.5717, reinforcing the bullish near-term outlook.

Momentum has also improved, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) climbing above the neutral 50 threshold after recovering from near-oversold territory. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram remains in positive territory, suggesting bearish momentum is fading rather than confirming a sustained bullish reversal, as NZD/USD continues to trade below a cluster of key moving averages.

On the topside, initial resistance emerges at the psychological 0.5800 mark, closely aligning with the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.5815, followed by the 200-day SMA at 0.5820 and the 100-day SMA at 0.5838.

A decisive break above these levels could pave the way for a move toward the horizontal resistance levels at 0.5900 and 0.6000.

On the downside, immediate support lies at the 21-day SMA at 0.5718. A move back below this level would weaken the near-term bullish bias and bring the late-June low of 0.5626 back into focus.

New Zealand Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against listed major currencies today. New Zealand Dollar was the strongest against the US Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.06%-0.09%-0.66%-0.24%-0.26%-0.30%-0.06%EUR0.06%-0.03%-0.55%-0.18%-0.21%-0.25%0.00%GBP0.09%0.03%-0.54%-0.15%-0.18%-0.21%0.02%JPY0.66%0.55%0.54%0.41%0.39%0.32%0.57%CAD0.24%0.18%0.15%-0.41%-0.03%-0.07%0.17%AUD0.26%0.21%0.18%-0.39%0.03%-0.05%0.17%NZD0.30%0.25%0.21%-0.32%0.07%0.05%0.23%CHF0.06%-0.01%-0.02%-0.57%-0.17%-0.17%-0.23% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the New Zealand Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent NZD (base)/USD (quote).

The New Zealand dollar received the boost that normally accompanies a rate hike, but the rally quickly lost momentum. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand delivered a widely anticipated 25 basis point increase in the Official Cash Rate to 2.50%, yet investors stopped short of pricing a more aggressive tightening cycle. Instead, the market came away with the impression that while another hike is still likely, policymakers have set a considerably higher hurdle before taking the next step.

At first glance, the statement appeared hawkish. The Committee said “some further reduction in monetary stimulus is likely to be required” and that “further OCR increases appear likely at upcoming meetings.” But those remarks were balanced by equally strong caveats. The RBNZ repeatedly emphasized that medium-term inflation remains uncertain and that future decisions will depend on incoming data, firms’ price-setting behaviour and the strength of the recovery, adding that the timing of future hikes is “highly uncertain.”

That balance was reflected in the Record of Meeting. While all six members agreed to raise the OCR, they were not fully aligned on the inflation outlook. Prasanna Gai and Hayley Gourley believed risks remained tilted to the upside. However, Governor Anna Breman, Chief Economist Paul Conway, Assistant Governor (Money) Karen Silk and external member Carl Hansen judged the risks to be broadly balanced instead.

Those differences matter because the balanced camp included the Governor and two of the Bank’s most senior policy officials. Breman argued that weak demand could continue limiting businesses’ ability to pass higher costs on to consumers. Conway questioned how quickly the recovery would spread beyond stronger parts of the economy even while acknowledging firms might eventually rebuild margins. Silk pointed to two-way risks, noting that a weaker exchange rate could add to imported inflation, but slower immigration could simultaneously restrain growth, housing and inflationary pressure. Together, their comments suggest the Committee is looking for clearer evidence that inflation is becoming genuinely persistent before tightening again.

That explains the Kiwi’s muted reaction. The RBNZ reinforced its inflation-fighting credentials with another rate hike, but it deliberately avoided creating expectations of an automatic follow-up move. Investors appear to have concluded that policymakers are comfortable pausing at 2.50% until the data justify another increase, rather than feeling compelled to keep tightening simply because the cycle has begun.

The charts tell a similar story. NZD/USD recovered after the decision but remained comfortably below last week’s high at 0.5726, suggesting buyers have yet to seize full control. The rebound from 0.5625 may still extend in the near term, but it continues to resemble a corrective recovery within a broader downtrend.

Even if another leg higher develops, upside should be capped by the 0.5768 resistance cluster, including the 38.2% retracement of 0.5993 to 0.5625 at 0.5766. Once the corrective rebound is complete, a break below 0.5625 remains the preferred scenario. A subsequent move through 0.5580 would shift focus back to the 2025 low at 0.5484.

ActionForex

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