Track market-moving stories before they get noisy

Trading in Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA) is quiet on Tuesday. Shares have lost more than 10% in just two weeks.

It has not been an easy couple of weeks for the artificial intelligence giant Nvidia (NVDA +0.13%), whose stock has fallen by over 9%.

AI concerns have been front and center, as Anthropic appears to be dragging its feet on its suspected initial public offering, and as investors fret about some of the balance sheets of debt-laden neoclouds.

Nvidia is still having a solid year, but the company has posted incredibly strong results in its first two quarterly reports and arguably hasn't been rewarded as much as some investors would have expected.

Earlier today, Reuters, citing anonymous sources, reported that Chinese companies, including ByteDance, Alibaba, and Tencent, have ordered more than 3 million Nvidia Blackwell chips, collectively worth $35 billion.

Here's why that could be great news for the stock.

Image source: Nvidia.

Chinese sales were not previously factored into the company's guidanceAfter the Trump administration imposed new tariffs on China in 2025, it told Nvidia in April of that year that it would need to obtain an export license to continue selling data center chips to Chinese companies.

This had also been an issue in former President Joe Biden's administration, with both administrations citing national security concerns.

However, Nvidia's CEO, Jensen Huang, met with Trump on several occasions and also lobbied Washington regulators, eventually striking a deal in which Nvidia would cede 15% of its Chinese chip sales to the government.

Most of those reports came last year, and there hasn't been much of an update since. Still, due to reservations from both U.S. and Chinese regulators, sales have hardly resumed.

Nvidia's CFO Colette Kress said on the company's most recent earnings call at the end of August that less than 1% of Nvidia's data center revenue came from customers in China, and it was for Nvidia's older-generation Hopper 200 chips.

Kress also said that Hopper sales are dilutive to gross margins, so it's positive that the company is able to sell Blackwell chips to Chinese customers.

NVDA Nvidia$217.37+$0.28 (+0.13%)

NASDAQ · As of 2:01 PM ET 10/20/26

The even better news for investors is that Nvidia has been providing forward guidance without including potential sales to Chinese companies. On the last quarterly call, Kress said the company is projecting revenue for the third quarter of its fiscal year 2027 to come in around $108 billion, so $35 billion is not an insignificant number.

However, Reuters also reported that Nvidia may not be able to fulfill all Chinese orders because it had not planned for such production levels. One source told Reuters that Nvidia may only be able to fill 5% to 10% of orders and has capacity to produce at most 3 million Blackwell chips globally in 2027.

Good news for AI demandInvestors and analysts will clearly be anxious to learn more about the Chinese orders on the company's next earnings call, including the magnitude of the orders, how much the company can fill, and how much of the sales it must cede to the government.

Despite the news, Nvidia's stock only traded marginally higher as of 2:04 p.m. ET today, and the market was broadly in the green. The stock has had some difficulty gaining traction, despite reporting blowout numbers and guidance each quarter so far this year.

Part of it likely has to do with Nvidia's roughly $5.2 trillion market cap and the fact that it's already guiding for 70% revenue growth in its fiscal year 2028. Investors are also nervous about the AI trade and whether companies can keep buying chips at the same level they have been.

Still, it's hard to view the demand in China as anything but broadly good news for Nvidia and the AI trade on the whole.

A billionaire bond investor is sounding alarms about what he calls a hollow tree at the center of the stock market, and the numbers hiding beneath the S&P 500's record highs suggest his warning deserves a closer look.

Wall Street’s major indexes can tell a comforting story even when the stocks beneath them are struggling. A handful of trillion-dollar technology companies can push the S&P 500 toward record highs while hundreds of other businesses quietly slide into correction territory. It’s a peculiar feature of a market increasingly dominated by its biggest companies, and one that can leave investors with a misleading picture of Wall Street’s health. 

With artificial intelligence spending reaching historic levels, bond yields climbing, and borrowing costs squeezing corporate balance sheets, the divide between the market’s winners and losers is becoming harder to ignore.

Billionaire bond investor Jeffrey Gundlach believes the stock market is concealing serious structural weakness. And the numbers suggest he has a point.

A Healthy-Looking Market With a Rotten Core During an October 9 interview with economist David Rosenberg, the DoubleLine Capital founder compared the stock market to a century-old silver maple tree at his Buffalo home.

The tree appeared healthy, with abundant leaves and sprawling branches. But after an enormous limb broke off, Gundlach discovered the trunk was completely hollow. The tree had to come down.

He sees a similar problem developing in stocks. The headline indexes look healthy, but the individual companies supporting them tell another story.

On October 16, MarketWatch reported that 191 S&P 500 stocks, or approximately 38% of the index, were trading at least 20% below their 52-week highs. That’s the traditional definition of a bear market.

Market Breadth Measure Reading S&P 500 stocks in bear markets 191 Share of index in bear markets 38.2% Decline required for a bear market 20% S&P 1500 stocks in correction territory or worse, cited by Rosenberg 75% The last figure is especially troubling. Rosenberg said three-quarters of the broader S&P 1500 were already down at least 10% from their highs.

Let’s put the risk Gundlach is discussing into perspective. Investors buying an S&P 500 index fund might believe they’re participating in a broad market rally. Yet the index is weighted by market capitalization, meaning companies with the largest valuations exert the greatest influence.

When Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA | NVDA Price Prediction), Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), and other technology giants perform well, their gains can conceal weakness across dozens of smaller constituents. Between July 13 and late August, Microsoft and Nvidia added $1.42 trillion in market capitalization, while the other 71 technology stocks collectively lost $22 billion.

The market’s apparent strength may depend on a remarkably narrow foundation.

The S&P 500 is hitting record highs, but beneath the surface, a 'rotten core' of nearly 200 stocks is quietly bleeding out in a hidden bear market. The AI Credit Market Is Flashing Another Warning Gundlach’s concerns extend beyond stock prices. He’s also watching the debt markets, where artificial intelligence companies are encountering increasingly expensive financing.

During the interview, he identified a divergence in corporate credit spreads — the additional interest investors demand for lending to companies instead of the federal government.

His figures showed:

AI-related investment-grade debt: Spreads widened approximately 75 basis points over the preceding year. AI-related high-yield debt: Spreads widened more than 150 basis points. Non-AI corporate debt: Spreads remained comparatively stable. In other words, lenders are demanding higher compensation specifically for financing AI-related businesses.

This is occurring as hyperscalers commit hundreds of billions of dollars to data centers, chips, and electricity infrastructure. Goldman Sachs previously warned that AI’s debt-fueled expansion was putting pressure on corporate credit markets, with hyperscaler leverage ratios doubling to 1.8 times in just six months.

The consequences are already visible. CoreWeave (NASDAQ:CRWV), whose debt-heavy financing model has unsettled neocloud investors, saw its bonds fall to approximately 81 cents on the dollar during October’s technology sell-off, according to MarketWatch.

The danger isn’t necessarily that AI spending stops tomorrow. It’s that companies counting on cheap financing could face higher borrowing costs precisely when their projects require more capital.

Higher Interest Rates Make the Cracks Worse Gundlach also highlighted a deteriorating backdrop for government borrowing. He estimated annual federal interest expenses at $1 trillion to $1.5 trillion, alongside deficits exceeding $2 trillion. Meanwhile, the 30-year Treasury yield had reached approximately 5.62%, its highest level in nearly 25 years.

The Congressional Budget Office’s projections illustrate how quickly borrowing costs can compound. Interest rates running 1.5 percentage points above its baseline could add $6 trillion to federal deficits through 2036, potentially pushing publicly held debt to 133% of GDP.

Higher Treasury yields compete directly with stocks for investor capital. They also raise the cost of financing corporate expansion, particularly for businesses whose profits remain years away. That makes AI infrastructure companies particularly vulnerable when investors begin questioning future returns.

Gundlach’s preferred defense is maintaining at least 20% of a portfolio in liquid, short-duration, high-quality fixed-income investments, where he said yields around 6% were available.

Key Takeaway In short, Gundlach isn’t arguing that every stock is about to collapse. He’s warning that a rising index can disguise growing financial stress.

With nearly four in 10 S&P 500 companies already in bear markets, his hollow-tree analogy has numerical support.

Investors should consider trimming outsized positions in richly valued technology stocks, scrutinizing corporate debt, and maintaining enough liquidity to capitalize on future declines. A diversified portfolio with quality companies, manageable debt, and dependable cash flow offers a better defense than simply assuming the biggest stocks will keep carrying the market.

The tree may still be standing, but investors would be wise to inspect its roots.

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

CIBC Capital Markets Europe S.A. acquired a new position in shares of NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) during the second quarter, according to the company in its most recent 13F filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The firm acquired 176,229 shares of the computer hardware maker's stock, valued at approximately $35,262,000. NVIDIA accounts

Apple and Nvidia sit within $250 billion of each other in market value, yet one trades at a multiple more than twice as rich as the other. That gap raises a sharp question about which stock carries more risk right…

Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL | AAPL Price Prediction) closed Monday, October 19, at $342.94, just under its 52-week high of $348.15. NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) closed at $217.09, about 11% below its peak of $243.37.

Apple and NVIDIA are worth $5.00 trillion and $5.24 trillion. Yet you pay 37 times expected earnings for Apple and 18 times for NVIDIA, so Apple’s forward multiple is about 2.1 times NVIDIA’s.

Revenue growth points the other way. Apple’s June-quarter revenue rose 16.36%, while NVIDIA’s latest quarterly revenue rose 105.85%.

Trailing Earnings Narrow the Gap On trailing earnings, Apple trades at 39 times and NVIDIA at 27 times, a gap of about 1.4 times. Forward P/Es rely on analyst estimates, and those estimates differ from one data provider to the next.

NVIDIA’s forward multiple is well below its trailing one because analysts expect EPS to rise from 9.3124 this fiscal year to 15.9146 next year. Apple’s two multiples sit close together, which signals slower expected growth. A multiple is most useful when compared with the growth it is expected to deliver.

Metric Apple NVIDIA Forward P/E 37 18 Trailing P/E 39 27 One-Year Gain 36.44% 18.77% Year-to-Date Gain 26.49% 16.67% Apple’s Premium Pays for Stability iPhone revenue rose 22% to $54.3 billion, Services set a June-quarter record of $30.7 billion, and paid subscriptions passed 1.5 billion. Apple also returned $33 billion to shareholders.

But management forecast September-quarter growth to 9% to 11% and gross margin to 47% to 48%, and about one percentage point of that margin comes from tariff refunds. On the July 30 call, Tim Cook described “a 100-year flood on the memory pricing.”

NVIDIA’s Discount Assumes a Slowdown Data Center revenue reached $89.02 billion, and NVIDIA forecast next-quarter revenue to $108.0 billion. Next fiscal year should still see roughly 70% growth despite supply limits.

The discount reflects questions about how long cloud spending continues, about custom chips built by its biggest customers, and about China, which guidance leaves out. Supply obligations of $279.0 billion become a burden if demand cools.

Apple Has More Room to Fall If NVIDIA earns what analysts expect, its multiple shrinks further at today’s price. If Apple’s growth slows while memory costs rise, a 37 multiple has more room to contract, so I see Apple’s risk as greater.

Apple’s one-year gain of 36.44% beat NVIDIA’s 18.77%, even though Apple’s revenue grew more slowly. Because both companies are among the largest by market value, investors in market-cap-weighted index funds have significant exposure to both.

Apple’s Premium Leaves Little Room for Error Apple looks expensive at 37 times forward earnings. The business is excellent, but guided growth of 9% to 11% and margin pressure from memory costs leave little room for disappointment.

NVIDIA looks cheaper relative to its growth because analysts expect far faster earnings growth at a forward multiple of 18. Its next report, expected around November 18, though the company has not confirmed the date, will test that view. The key test for Apple is whether holiday-quarter iPhone demand exceeds supply constraints, because that quarter has to justify the premium.

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

FirstWave Capital Management LLC purchased a new position in shares of NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) in the undefined quarter, according to its most recent disclosure with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The firm purchased 13,965 shares of the computer hardware maker's stock, valued at approximately $2,794,000. NVIDIA makes up 1.2% of FirstWave Capital

Odyssean LLC grew its holdings in NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) by 77.4% during the undefined quarter, according to its most recent Form 13F filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The firm owned 14,488 shares of the computer hardware maker's stock after acquiring an additional 6,321 shares during the period. Odyssean LLC's holdings

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, left, and Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang attend the opening ceremony of the "Invest in Germany Summit" in Berlin, Monday, Oct. 19, 2026. Credit: Fabian Sommer/dpa via AP

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang urged Germany's makers of cars and industrial machines to quickly adopt artificial intelligence to "reengineer" the country's struggling business model by tapping its wealth of manufacturing data and expertise.

Huang, whose company designs the powerful computer chips and software used by companies like Anthropic and OpenAI to develop AI applications, said that digital technology would never replace manufacturing and the engineering world of cars and robots where Germany has vast experience.

Or, as he put it, "electrons will never replace atoms." But he said industry would benefit by leaning into technology.

"The next wave of AI is physical. This is where AI interacts with the physical world: robotics, manufacturing, cars, heavy industry," Huang said Monday during a discussion with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz at an investment conference in Berlin.

"And so AI can only augment your capability. It will not replace your capability. So take advantage of the technology."

Huang said Germany's data and expertise on manufacturing "is your natural resource, it belongs to the nation" but it needs to take better advantage of AI. "This industrial revolution is so mighty, so powerful. You don't have another chance," he said.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, left, and Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang attend the opening ceremony of the "Invest in Germany Summit" in Berlin, Monday, Oct. 19, 2026. Credit: Fabian Sommer/dpa via AP

European leaders like Merz are looking to AI as a potential source of growth but are also concerned about the extent of European dependence on U.S. tech companies in the field. Europe's wealth of high-quality public-sector and machine-readable manufacturing data could serve as grist for AI, an opportunity cited by former European Central Bank head Mario Draghi as an area where Europe could compete with the U.S. and China in the AI field.

Huang and Merz said AI was an opportunity for Germany's so-called "mittelstand," the hundreds of small- and medium-sized companies in highly specialized industrial sectors.

Merz is struggling to revive growth in Germany after years of near-stagnation after the pandemic. Among the economy's headwinds are high energy prices after losing cheap Russian natural gas due to the invasion of Ukraine, competition from China in sectors like autos where Germany once dominated, and excessive red tape and permissions that hold up projects for years. All that has put a damper on an economy heavily oriented toward building complicated machines for export, including cars, trains, aircraft and factory equipment.

Europe lags the U.S. in building out the data centers that offer the massive computing capacity to train artificial intelligence applications and faces concerns over the security of European companies' sensitive data against subpoenas and criminal warrants on servers owned by U.S. companies and thus exposed to the U.S. legal system even if they're in Europe.

Huang appeared to address such concerns by urging Germany to import AI technology but adding that "you should not export your culture, export your values, export your knowledge."

Huang said Germany should "take advantage of artificial intelligence. Let them codify, let them program, let them teach this artificial intelligence and keep it here in Germany, and let's reengineer, the chancellor's words, Germany. This is your chance to do it."

Who's behind this story?

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Master's in physics with research experience. Long-time science news enthusiast. Plays key role in Science X's editorial success.

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Nvidia is increasing its investments in Europe's artificial intelligence sector, unveiling plans to back four German startups as the country pushes to strengthen its position in industrial AI.

The investments are part of the U.S. chipmaker's nearly $10 billion commitment to invest in companies, universities and research institutions across Europe, as announced at the Invest in Germany Summit in Berlin on Monday.

The four startups are Agile Robots, Avelios Medical, Mirelo and Reflex Aerospace. However, Nvidia did not disclose the size of the planned investments.

Agile Robots develops AI-powered robots for manufacturing, logistics and healthcare, while Avelios Medical builds AI-powered hospital management software. Mirelo develops AI models that generate audio for videos, while Reflex Aerospace designs and builds satellites.

The announcement comes as Germany seeks to accelerate AI adoption across its industrial sector, with Chancellor Friedrich Merz saying the country aims to become a leader in integrating AI into key sectors.

Merz, who described the technology as a major opportunity for the country's economy, named manufacturing, machinery and the automotive industry for integrating AI. He also urged Germany's small- and medium-sized businesses to capitalize on the data they already hold.

"Please open your doors for AI to make use of your data," Merz said. "This is a real secret and a real advantage for Germany to make use of all the data which is already available in our companies."

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang echoed Merz's remarks while highlighting Germany's expertise in manufacturing, mathematics and science, saying that AI would strengthen rather than replace the country's industrial capabilities.

"AI can only augment your capability, it will not replace your capability," Huang said, describing the technology as a new instrument for businesses.

Nvidia is also expanding its collaboration with the German federal government and its "Industry 4.0 Platform," bringing together representatives from government, industry, research and trade associations, to accelerate the adoption of industrial AI. On Monday, the government signed a joint declaration of intent with Nvidia to advance AI models for industrial applications.

Earlier in the day, Siemens had also announced new AI solutions developed with Nvidia at its factory in Erlangen, Germany. Siemens said the technologies could reduce engineering work involved in preparing production by up to 85%, while AI-powered production planning could cut costs by as much as 20%.

Huang had also visited France last week, where he announced investments in four French startups and met with French President Emmanuel Macron to discuss AI development. The Nvidia boss is scheduled to deliver a keynote address in Berlin on Wednesday.

Could Nvidia (NVDA +1.38%) become a $10 trillion company?

That's a reasonable question to ask. Nvidia sits at the center of the artificial intelligence boom, supplying the chips and systems that power AI data centers. As a result, its revenue and profits have grown at extraordinary rates as companies race to build AI infrastructure.

But I'd be cautious about assuming the stock can keep delivering spectacular returns. My biggest concern is that Nvidia's largest customers are also becoming its competitors. If they succeed in developing their own AI chips, Nvidia could lose some of its pricing power over time.

That matters because Nvidia needs both growth and pricing power to maintain a substantial share of AI computing spending.

Image source: Getty Images.

Nvidia's customers want alternatives Consider Nvidia's biggest customers: Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta.

These technology giants are spending enormous sums building data centers to train and run AI models. To put it into perspective, these four companies are projecting $760 billion in capex this year. Much of that spending benefits Nvidia, which sells the graphics processing units (GPUs) and networking equipment needed to power these facilities.

But buying Nvidia's hardware comes at a massive cost, so unsurprisingly, these companies have strong incentives to find cheaper, more efficient ways to run their AI workloads. One solution is to develop their own chips.

Google has its Tensor Processing Units, or TPUs, Amazon has its Trainium chips, and Microsoft is developing its Maia family of AI accelerators. The logic is straightforward. If a cloud provider can run an AI workload more efficiently with its own chip, it may reduce costs and improve profitability.

For investors, that's the risk worth watching: Nvidia's customers have a financial incentive to become less dependent on Nvidia.

NVDA Nvidia$217.09+$2.96 (+1.38%)

NASDAQ · As of 4:00 PM ET 10/19/26

Why this matters for Nvidia's valuation Nvidia's recent financial results show just how powerful its business has become.

In its second quarter of fiscal 2027, revenue surged 106% year over year to $96.2 billion. Data Center revenue grew 117% to $89 billion, while gross margin reached 75%. These numbers demonstrate Nvidia's enormous advantage today. Its products remain in strong demand, and its software ecosystem makes its platform difficult to replace.

But today's success doesn't guarantee that Nvidia will maintain the same economics indefinitely. If customers increasingly turn to their own chips for certain workloads, Nvidia may face greater pressure to compete on price, efficiency, and performance. It could still grow rapidly, but its growth or profit margins might eventually fall short of optimistic investors' expectations.

That distinction matters when considering a $10 trillion valuation. Assuming the investor is willing to pay a 25x price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for the stock in the long run, Nvidia needs to generate $400 billion in net profit. In fiscal 2026 (ended Jan. 25, 2026), Nvidia's net income was $120 billion.

To be fair, Nvidia's latest quarterly revenue was close to $60 billion -- or annualized at $240 billion -- so the $400 billion net profit doesn't seem too far-fetched. But assuming the demand for Nvidia's products will continue to grow at these levels may be too optimistic. In particular, if its customers capture more of the economic benefits of AI computing, Nvidia might struggle to deliver the earnings growth investors anticipate.

In other words, the risk isn't necessarily that Nvidia's business will shrink, but rather that the company could become much bigger without becoming as profitable as the market expects.

The bull case remains strong Nvidia remains a remarkably strong business. Its CUDA software ecosystem, networking technology, and integrated computing systems make its products difficult to replace. Building a custom chip is one thing; creating an entire platform that developers want to use is another.

And Nvidia's customers could continue buying its products while developing alternatives. AI demand may grow quickly enough for both Nvidia and custom-chip providers to thrive. So, the rise of custom chips doesn't automatically mean Nvidia will lose its leadership. The question is just how much of the industry's future growth Nvidia can capture and how much profit it might retain.

What does it mean for investors? Nvidia reaching a $10 trillion market capitalization isn't impossible. Its technological advantages and exposure to AI give it an enormous opportunity. But I wouldn't assume that today's growth rates and profit margins will continue indefinitely.

As Nvidia's biggest customers develop their own chips, investors should watch whether these alternatives begin to capture a meaningful share of workloads that would otherwise run on Nvidia hardware. That's the risk I would watch before betting on a $10 trillion valuation.

A billionaire CEO is openly calling AI the biggest bubble of his lifetime and still urging investors to pile in. His reasoning involves a 1997 comparison, a specific set of warning signals, and a view that the most dangerous part…

A crypto executive and former hedge fund manager is calling artificial intelligence the “biggest bubble of our lifetime” and telling investors to stay in. Mike Novogratz, founder and CEO of Galaxy Digital (NASDAQ:GLXY | GLXY Price Prediction), whose net worth Forbes estimates at $4.3 billion, made the remark on a panel at the Greenwich Economic Forum in Greenwich, Connecticut, in early October. Bloomberg’s account, republished by The Star, says he urged investors to pile in.

Conditions at the time, as Bloomberg reported them: AI-linked gains pushed the S&P 500 Index to a record that day, and NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) saw its market value approach $6 trillion.

Why Novogratz Says This Bubble Still Has Room
According to Bloomberg, Novogratz says he knows how bubbles end. They end spectacularly, and he says this one is not spectacular enough yet. In his view, AI-linked stocks still look cheap on a price-to-earnings basis. He sees rising long-term borrowing costs as a headwind that falls short of stopping the rally.

He also notes that competition with China makes it unlikely regulators or the industry will slow AI development, since both U.S. parties see the race as existential. That is his opinion. His “keep buying” case combines a call to buy in with patience.

Melt-Up Numbers Behind the AI Trade
“Melt-up” is our word for it. Novogratz did not use it. The term describes a fast, record-setting rally driven by investors piling in, which fits a record S&P 500 and NVIDIA approaching $6 trillion. NVIDIA’s market value now stands at $5.21 trillion.

Spending is driving the move. In its fiscal second-quarter release, NVIDIA reported revenue of $96.22B (+105.8% YoY) and guided to $108.0B +/- 2% for the third quarter. Management said “NVIDIA Compute is fully utilized across every cloud we serve” and expects top-five hyperscaler capex of $1.3 trillion in 2027. Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) spent $115.95B on capex in fiscal 2026, and its CFO said “customer demand continues to exceed available capacity.” NVIDIA trades at about 43 times trailing earnings. Microsoft trades at about 29.

His 1997 Comparison and Warning Signs
He appeared on the Oct. 12 episode of “Money Rehab with Nicole Lapin.” A summary of the episode says he compared today to 1997 and sees no clear sign of a peak. According to that summary, the warning signs he watches are stocks and the dollar falling together, spiking bond yields, and foreign selling of Treasuries.

Skeptics and Believers Both Argue Against Selling
Ray Dalio, speaking at a Singapore conference on Oct. 7, said rising interest rates and investors’ need to convert wealth into cash are bringing an AI bubble closer to collapsing.

DBS chief investment officer Hou Wey Fook challenged the bubble view, saying NVIDIA’s earnings multiple sits near its lowest since 2016. Crypto Briefing reported that he projects 70% earnings growth for NVIDIA next year.

Gavin Baker, managing partner and CIO of Atreides Management, made a year-old argument at Andreessen Horowitz’s Runtime conference, published in October 2025, that AI does not qualify as a bubble. Baker says 97% of fiber laid in America was “dark” (never lit) at the 2000 peak, while today’s GPUs are fully used. Novogratz sees a bubble and Baker sees none, yet both notes against selling. Riding a mania is fine if you plan the exit, which is the whole point of our free bubble survivor’s handbook.

What Changed Since the Panel
The September CPI report, released Oct. 14, showed prices up 3.7% from a year earlier, above the 3.6% expected, per Fox Business. Fox Business reported that the S&P 500 fell about 0.95% and the Nasdaq about 1.42% in morning trading. That day, Fox Business put CME FedWatch odds of a 25-basis-point increase at the Fed’s Oct. 27-28 meeting at 41.5%, up from 22.1%. NVIDIA is down 6.05% over the past week. Rising yields and falling stocks are two of the signals Novogratz says he tracks.

Signals to Track Before the Fed Meets
The Fed’s late-October meeting is the next test. After that, watch long-term bond yields, whether stocks and the dollar start falling together, and foreign demand for Treasuries. The man calling AI the “biggest bubble of our lifetime” says the bubble isn’t over, and he has named the signals he expects to show up first if it is ending.

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

Nvidia (NVDA +1.93%) is the market's most valuable company by market cap. It's the only one entering this week with a market cap north of $5 trillion. Instinctively, you might think that the priciest name among U.S.-listed companies would also be one of the most expensive names on Wall Street.

Looking back, it's not entirely cheap. Nvidia trades for 27 times adjusted earnings on a trailing basis. It's not an outrageous price tag. It's also not bargain bin fodder. However, when you start to zoom out -- for a clear view of both the recent past and the next few years of projected growth -- the value in Nvidia stock starts to shine through.

Image source: Getty Images.

A chip off the old block
There's no point in burying the lede. Nvidia is currently trading for a modest 8 times what analysts see it earning in fiscal 2030. The key word there is "currently" since a profit target is a movable feast. It may be academically correct to say that you can buy Nvidia today at a 2030 P/E multiple of 8, but the chances of that actually being the case once we get there are slim. It could be considerably higher. It could be considerably lower.

Projections will change, but let's lay out today's table. Here is what analysts see Nvidia generating in normalized earnings through the next few years, and the respective P/E ratio based on where the stock is now.

Fiscal YearEPSP/E2027$9.31232028$15.91132029$21.34102030$25.9882031$28.797
Data source: S&P Global. Nvidia's fiscal year 2027 will end on Jan. 31, 2027.

It's like a football kick in swirling winds. The longer you have to travel to get through the goalposts, the more variance there will be when the football gets there. So, yes, Nvidia is trading at 8 times what analysts expect it to earn on an adjusted basis in fiscal 2030. Don't bet on it landing there.

NVDA Nvidia$218.27+$4.14 (+1.93%)

NASDAQ · As of 3:39 PM ET 10/19/26

Aiming at a moving target
Nvidia has been a spectacular investment. As the undisputed leader in artificial intelligence infrastructure, it's been feasting on the boom lately. Just check out the accelerating revenue growth that Nvidia has posted in the last few quarters.

Q2 FY 2026: 56%
Q3 FY 2026: 63%
Q4 FY 2026: 73%
Q1 FY 2027: 85%
Q2 FY 2027: 106%

Making a great trend even better, the bottom line is growing even faster. It won't always be that way. Nvidia's own guidance suggests revenue will decelerate slightly in the current quarter, which ends next week. Bulls can rightfully counter that Nvidia has a long track record of exceeding its conservative guidance, but a slowdown is as natural as it is inevitable.

The wonderful thing about momentum is that analysts' profit targets for future years have been rising with every blowout quarter. Wall Street pros weren't expecting Nvidia to earn $25.98 per share in fiscal 2030 a year ago, just as they weren't expecting a per-share profit of $9.31 this year.

Fiscally yours
I want to close on one final point. Fiscal 2030 may seem like it's four years away. It's not. In fact, in a little more than three months, Nvidia will dip its toe into fiscal 2028. Fiscal 2030 starts just two years, three months, and less than two weeks from now.

So Nvidia is already cheaper than you probably think. It's trading for just 13 times next year's earnings. Why do you think Nvidia's board recently authorized a record $150 billion in share repurchases? It's not the only one that thinks the stock is pretty cheap these days.

This can all change, of course. Tailwinds can become headwinds. Growth can slow sharply instead of modestly. Nvidia's chunky net margins can contract. Every investor should have a long-term mindset paired with short-term vigilance. It's paid off so far, with Nvidia stock being a nine-bagger over the past five years. Don't be surprised if this winner keeps winning.

Amazon (AMZN +5.31%) announced on Monday, Oct. 19, 2026, that the public will soon be able to access a new software tool that could have real consequences for the artificial intelligence (AI) trade. Called TorchNeuron, the tool lets developers run their existing PyTorch code on Amazon's Trainium chips with minimal changes, challenging a key aspect of Nvidia's (NVDA +1.93%) moat.

The company plans to release TorchNeuron as free, open-source software in public beta on Oct. 20.

NVDA Nvidia$218.27+$4.14 (+1.93%)

NASDAQ · As of 3:39 PM ET 10/19/26

How PyTorch and CUDA work togetherTo understand why this matters, it helps to understand how AI software and hardware work together.

Many developers build their AI models using PyTorch, a set of development tools that helps engineers write the code that tells a model-in-training how to learn from the vast amounts of data it's fed.

But that code doesn't do much without chips doing the actual math that training -- and eventually running -- the model requires. Software underneath PyTorch connects those operations to the hardware and helps execute them efficiently. On Nvidia GPUs, CUDA fills that role.

A key aspect here is that AI developers can benefit from all that software without writing CUDA code themselves. They work in PyTorch, and Nvidia's CUDA handles what happens underneath.

Image source: Nvidia.

Why switching away from Nvidia is expensiveCUDA is built for Nvidia GPUs. That means that companies that are considering switching from Nvidia chips to a competitor's -- like Amazon's Trainium chips -- face serious switching costs well beyond buying new chips. It could mean that years of investment in optimizing their software to play nice with CUDA is gone. Significant time and money need to be reinvested into learning a new software ecosystem and getting existing systems to play nice with it.

A cheaper chip isn't necessarily cheaper once you account for the time and labor involved in making the switch.

That's why today's announcement is a big deal. TorchNeuron connects PyTorch to Amazon's own software stack and Trainium hardware and, according to the company, allows companies to make the switch with minimal effort.

To be clear, there are limits here. TorchNeuron is for work done in PyTorch. More sophisticated stacks with custom CUDA code won't be easily ported. And critically, this is still in beta.

What this means for Nvidia investorsI wouldn't dismiss this. But I wouldn't freak out either (of course, that's never a good idea).

For one thing, TorchNeuron is only entering public beta. The claims about how easily developers can make the switch are from a company that obviously stands to benefit. Things could work out much differently in the real world and at scale.

That said, Amazon isn't alone here. Alphabet's Google is developing its own version, TorchTPU. Many of Nvidia's customers have an interest in bringing their hardware and software stacks in-house, or at the very least, seeing Nvidia's moat weakened.

A weakened moat likely means cheaper chips as Nvidia is forced to compete on price. And remember, we don't have to be talking in absolutes here. Customers don't have to abandon Nvidia entirely for this to matter. Having alternatives for even some workloads would give Nvidia customers more leverage in negotiations.

I think more than anything, this is a chink in the armor of Nvidia's narrative. I don't see it having a major impact on order flow or pricing power in the near term, but it could mean the market isn't willing to pay quite the same premium for Nvidia stock.

Nvidia on Thursday launched new open-weight models designed for always-on agents and edge computing.

The Nemotron 3.5 Super VL is a large, 120-billion-parameter model geared for agents used by the enterprise. While it uses fewer parameters than the Nemotron 3 Ultra model, Nvidia says it can deliver similar accuracy in instruction-following and tool-use tasks.

At the other end of the spectrum, the company also launched two lightweight Bolt models. These are intended to run locally on the new AI PCs (running the Nvidia RTX Spark chip) and workstations running the DGX Spark. Such PCs, aimed at consumers, programmers, and enterprise knowledge workers, are being released right now into the market through partners like Microsoft and Dell.  

“Any organization that wants to run agents on Nvidia infrastructure now has an open, optimized model for their tier without having to choose between capability and deployability,” Nvidia’s vice president of Open Models and Software, Kari Briski, wrote in the blog post announcing these models.  

Nvidia claims that the Super VL completes tasks faster than competing models from Anthropic and OpenAI (Opus 5, GPT 6.1 Sol, Luna, Astra) when post-trained on specific agentic tasks. These tasks include document intelligence, financial accounting, scientific experimentation, medical insurance claims, and security attack resilience. 

While such claims are standard whenever a major tech company announces a new model, Nvidia has backed it up with a list of heavy-hitter companies that it says are using Super VL. These include Skydance, EY, Ramp, Crowdstrike, Perplexity, and Salesforce.  

Of course, these aren’t the first open-weight models that Nvidia has released that compete with the proprietary frontier labs — companies that are both its customers and its investments. The GPU giant has an entire family of Nemotron models that do everything from multimodal artificial intelligence to reasoning, coding, math, and enterprise automation. 

However, those fast-growing proprietary AI labs are now looking to many other chips and AI system makers beyond Nvidia to power their needs, like AWS’s Trainium and Cerebras, as well as building their own home-grown chips.  

So Nvidia is leaning hard into the trend of enterprise companies wanting to run their own open models in their own data centers. “Unlike closed frontier models, organizations can post-train Super VL on their own data, deploy it on their own infrastructure and own what they build,” Briski wrote. 

But with the announcement or the smaller, local PC models, it is also trying to push forward the nascent trend of consumer AI assistants. While it seems a new AI assistant is introduced every day by startups and Big Tech alike, privacy-weary consumers may not want to invite such agents so deeply into their lives giving them access to info about their families, health, finances, and so on.  

So, while Nvidia hopes to create a new market for itself selling PCs powered by its chips by creating machines that run the models and agents locally, PC users “can delegate everyday projects … without sending those workloads to the cloud,” Briski wrote. 

Of the two Bolt models, Nemotron 3.5 Bolt 74B-A9B 24GB is a 74-billion parameter model designed for local agentic tasks. It is intended to balance speed with reasoning to handle multistep reasoning, tool calling, and web browsing. The smallest Bolt E4B is aimed at conversational agents. 

Super VL and Bolt 74B-A9B are available now, with Bolt E4B coming later this month, Nvidia says. 

When you purchase through links in our articles, we may earn a small commission. This doesn’t affect our editorial independence.

Nvidia (NVDA +1.76%) has authorized a $235 billion buyback while continuing to invest aggressively across the AI ecosystem. The real opportunity is not the headline alone. If cash generation remains strong and the share count continues to decline, repurchases could become an increasingly important driver of per-share growth.

Stock prices used were the market prices of Sept. 29, 2026. The video was published on Oct. 18, 2026.

Rick Orford has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Nvidia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. Rick Orford is an affiliate of The Motley Fool and may be compensated for promoting its services. If you choose to subscribe through their link, they will earn some extra money that supports their channel. Their opinions remain their own and are unaffected by The Motley Fool.

Syon Capital LLC grew its stake in shares of NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA – Free Report) by 5.2% in the 2nd quarter, according to its most recent disclosure with the SEC. The institutional investor owned 341,321 shares of the computer hardware maker’s stock after acquiring an additional 16,768 shares during the period. NVIDIA comprises approximately 3.0% of Syon Capital LLC’s investment portfolio, making the stock its 4th biggest holding. Syon Capital LLC’s holdings in NVIDIA were worth $68,295,000 at the end of the most recent reporting period.

Other large investors have also recently modified their holdings of the company. Bank of America Corp DE raised its position in NVIDIA by 2.2% during the 2nd quarter. Bank of America Corp DE now owns 195,366,864 shares of the computer hardware maker’s stock valued at $39,090,956,000 after purchasing an additional 4,165,875 shares in the last quarter. Amundi lifted its holdings in shares of NVIDIA by 10.4% in the 1st quarter. Amundi now owns 133,768,018 shares of the computer hardware maker’s stock worth $23,329,141,000 after buying an additional 12,575,177 shares during the period. Dimensional Fund Advisors LP lifted its holdings in shares of NVIDIA by 0.6% in the 1st quarter. Dimensional Fund Advisors LP now owns 94,521,253 shares of the computer hardware maker’s stock worth $16,479,126,000 after buying an additional 555,221 shares during the period. Deutsche Bank AG lifted its holdings in shares of NVIDIA by 2.3% in the 2nd quarter. Deutsche Bank AG now owns 91,954,159 shares of the computer hardware maker’s stock worth $18,399,108,000 after buying an additional 2,045,101 shares during the period. Finally, Jupiter Topco LLC bought a new position in shares of NVIDIA during the 2nd quarter worth $16,156,076,000. Hedge funds and other institutional investors own 65.27% of the company’s stock.

Analysts Set New Price Targets Several equities analysts have recently commented on NVDA shares. BMO Capital Markets set a $340.00 price target on NVIDIA and gave the company an “outperform” rating in a research note on Thursday, August 20th. TD Cowen reaffirmed a “buy” rating on shares of NVIDIA in a research note on Tuesday, August 18th. Citigroup reiterated a “buy” rating and set a $315.00 target price (up from $300.00) on shares of NVIDIA in a report on Thursday, August 27th. Truist Financial boosted their price target on shares of NVIDIA from $307.00 to $346.00 and gave the company a “buy” rating in a report on Thursday, August 27th. Finally, The Goldman Sachs Group restated a “buy” rating on shares of NVIDIA in a report on Thursday, September 10th. Five analysts have rated the stock with a Strong Buy rating, forty-nine have assigned a Buy rating and one has issued a Hold rating to the stock. According to data from MarketBeat.com, NVIDIA presently has an average rating of “Buy” and a consensus target price of $321.89.

Get Our Latest Analysis on NVDA Insiders Place Their Bets In other NVIDIA news, CFO Colette Kress sold 34,918 shares of the stock in a transaction dated Thursday, September 17th. The shares were sold at an average price of $219.05, for a total transaction of $7,648,787.90. Following the completion of the sale, the chief financial officer directly owned 765,103 shares of the company’s stock, valued at approximately $167,595,812.15. This represents a 4.36% decrease in their ownership of the stock. The transaction was disclosed in a filing with the SEC, which can be accessed through this hyperlink. The transaction was executed under a pre-arranged Rule 10b5-1 trading plan. Also, EVP Timothy Teter sold 30,460 shares of the stock in a transaction dated Monday, September 21st. The shares were sold at an average price of $222.80, for a total transaction of $6,786,488.00. Following the sale, the executive vice president directly owned 2,687,660 shares of the company’s stock, valued at approximately $598,810,648. The trade was a 1.12% decrease in their ownership of the stock. Additional details regarding this sale are available in the official SEC disclosure. The transaction was executed under a pre-arranged Rule 10b5-1 trading plan. Over the last ninety days, insiders sold 1,766,118 shares of company stock worth $399,450,353. 3.94% of the stock is owned by corporate insiders.

NVIDIA Stock Performance NVDA opened at $214.13 on Monday. The firm has a market cap of $5.16 trillion, a price-to-earnings ratio of 27.07, a PEG ratio of 1.65 and a beta of 2.22. The company has a current ratio of 4.59, a quick ratio of 3.85 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.14. NVIDIA Corporation has a 12 month low of $164.27 and a 12 month high of $243.37. The stock has a fifty day moving average price of $223.20 and a 200-day moving average price of $211.42.

NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA – Get Free Report) last issued its quarterly earnings data on Wednesday, August 26th. The computer hardware maker reported $2.22 earnings per share for the quarter, topping analysts’ consensus estimates of $2.09 by $0.13. NVIDIA had a return on equity of 96.04% and a net margin of 63.66%. The firm had revenue of $96.22 billion during the quarter, compared to analysts’ expectations of $92.27 billion. During the same period in the prior year, the business posted $1.05 EPS. The firm’s quarterly revenue was up 105.9% on a year-over-year basis. As a group, equities research analysts anticipate that NVIDIA Corporation will post 9.30 earnings per share for the current fiscal year.

NVIDIA Dividend Announcement The company also recently announced a quarterly dividend, which was paid on Thursday, October 1st. Shareholders of record on Thursday, September 10th were issued a $0.25 dividend. The ex-dividend date was Thursday, September 10th. This represents a $1.00 dividend on an annualized basis and a yield of 0.5%. NVIDIA’s payout ratio is currently 12.64%.

NVIDIA announced that its Board of Directors has authorized a stock buyback plan on Monday, September 28th that permits the company to repurchase $150.00 billion in shares. This repurchase authorization permits the computer hardware maker to buy up to 2.8% of its shares through open market purchases. Stock repurchase plans are typically a sign that the company’s board of directors believes its stock is undervalued.

NVIDIA News Roundup Here are the key news stories impacting NVIDIA this week:

Positive Sentiment: New RTX Spark laptops expand NVIDIA’s addressable market. Systems from ASUS, Dell, HP, Lenovo, Microsoft and MSI are now available starting at $2,599, combining Blackwell graphics, up to 128GB of memory and local AI capabilities. The launch could create a new consumer and developer revenue stream beyond data centers. NVIDIA RTX Spark PCs Available Today Positive Sentiment: Automotive and enterprise adoption continues. Volvo expanded its partnership with NVIDIA for automated-driving systems, while Adobe is integrating NVIDIA technology across Photoshop, Premiere and other creative tools. These agreements support longer-term demand for NVIDIA hardware and software. Volvo Cars expands automated driving partnership Positive Sentiment: Supply-chain investment and customer deployments remain strong. Taiwan is reportedly considering as much as $4 billion for Texas industrial parks serving NVIDIA suppliers, and customers continue deploying Blackwell systems. The developments reinforce demand, although they may take time to affect revenue. Taiwan Texas industrial parks Neutral Sentiment: NVIDIA is broadening its software and AI-model ecosystem. Paid offerings such as AI Enterprise and Mission Control, along with Nemotron open models and partnerships with AI startups, could make earnings less dependent on hardware. However, the articles provide no near-term financial contribution. Negative Sentiment: AI financing concerns are the main pressure. CoreWeave’s debt has reportedly traded at distressed yields, raising questions about whether highly leveraged customers can continue funding data-center expansion. Higher Treasury yields and inflation concerns are also making large AI projects more expensive. CoreWeave financing worries Negative Sentiment: Investors are questioning AI growth expectations. OpenAI’s reported $50 billion revenue run rate was below the roughly $68 billion previously anticipated, prompting concern that AI demand may mature more slowly. Microsoft’s development of custom Maia chips also highlights the risk of customers developing alternatives to NVIDIA GPUs. OpenAI revenue expectations Negative Sentiment: Reported insider selling adds a sentiment overhang. Recent data showed NVIDIA insiders made numerous sales and no open-market purchases over the past six months, though such transactions may reflect planned diversification rather than a change in business outlook. About NVIDIA (Free Report)

NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) is a technology company that designs graphics processing units (GPUs), accelerated computing platforms, networking products and related software. Its technologies support artificial intelligence, machine learning, scientific computing, data analytics, professional visualization and computer graphics.

The company’s products include GeForce GPUs for gaming and personal computing, data center GPUs and systems for AI and high-performance computing, and networking solutions used to connect and manage large-scale computing infrastructure.

Further Reading Five stocks we like better than NVIDIA These 3 Green Stocks Have a Growth Story That Goes Far Beyond Washington Meta Claims Frontier-Class AI Status With New Muse Wonder Models Berkshire Just Backed This Little-Known Stock—Should You Chase It? Broadcom’s CEO Sees Years of AI Demand But Warns of a Bigger Threat to the Boom Want to see what other hedge funds are holding NVDA? Visit HoldingsChannel.com to get the latest 13F filings and insider trades for NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA – Free Report).

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Power Wealth Management LLC increased its holdings in shares of NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) by 24.5% in the second quarter, according to the company in its most recent Form 13F filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The fund owned 13,341 shares of the computer hardware maker's stock after buying an additional

Kampmann Melissa S. increased its stake in NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA – Free Report) by 409.2% in the 2nd quarter, according to the company in its most recent filing with the SEC. The fund owned 8,020 shares of the computer hardware maker’s stock after purchasing an additional 6,445 shares during the quarter. NVIDIA makes up 1.2% of Kampmann Melissa S.’s investment portfolio, making the stock its 29th largest holding. Kampmann Melissa S.’s holdings in NVIDIA were worth $1,605,000 as of its most recent filing with the SEC.

Several other institutional investors and hedge funds have also recently added to or reduced their stakes in the stock. LightSquare Wealth Management LLC raised its position in NVIDIA by 0.3% in the 2nd quarter. LightSquare Wealth Management LLC now owns 18,695 shares of the computer hardware maker’s stock valued at $3,741,000 after purchasing an additional 49 shares during the last quarter. Defender Capital LLC. grew its holdings in shares of NVIDIA by 0.7% during the second quarter. Defender Capital LLC. now owns 7,534 shares of the computer hardware maker’s stock worth $1,507,000 after purchasing an additional 50 shares during the last quarter. Kooman & Associates increased its stake in shares of NVIDIA by 0.6% in the second quarter. Kooman & Associates now owns 8,464 shares of the computer hardware maker’s stock valued at $1,694,000 after buying an additional 50 shares in the last quarter. Roof Eidam Maycock Peralta LLC raised its holdings in shares of NVIDIA by 0.3% in the second quarter. Roof Eidam Maycock Peralta LLC now owns 18,827 shares of the computer hardware maker’s stock valued at $3,767,000 after buying an additional 50 shares during the last quarter. Finally, Persium Advisors LLC raised its holdings in shares of NVIDIA by 3.5% in the second quarter. Persium Advisors LLC now owns 1,466 shares of the computer hardware maker’s stock valued at $293,000 after buying an additional 50 shares during the last quarter. 65.27% of the stock is currently owned by institutional investors and hedge funds.

Key Stories Impacting NVIDIA Here are the key news stories impacting NVIDIA this week:

Positive Sentiment: New RTX Spark laptops expand NVIDIA’s addressable market. Systems from ASUS, Dell, HP, Lenovo, Microsoft and MSI are now available starting at $2,599, combining Blackwell graphics, up to 128GB of memory and local AI capabilities. The launch could create a new consumer and developer revenue stream beyond data centers. NVIDIA RTX Spark PCs Available Today Positive Sentiment: Automotive and enterprise adoption continues. Volvo expanded its partnership with NVIDIA for automated-driving systems, while Adobe is integrating NVIDIA technology across Photoshop, Premiere and other creative tools. These agreements support longer-term demand for NVIDIA hardware and software. Volvo Cars expands automated driving partnership Positive Sentiment: Supply-chain investment and customer deployments remain strong. Taiwan is reportedly considering as much as $4 billion for Texas industrial parks serving NVIDIA suppliers, and customers continue deploying Blackwell systems. The developments reinforce demand, although they may take time to affect revenue. Taiwan Texas industrial parks Neutral Sentiment: NVIDIA is broadening its software and AI-model ecosystem. Paid offerings such as AI Enterprise and Mission Control, along with Nemotron open models and partnerships with AI startups, could make earnings less dependent on hardware. However, the articles provide no near-term financial contribution. Negative Sentiment: AI financing concerns are the main pressure. CoreWeave’s debt has reportedly traded at distressed yields, raising questions about whether highly leveraged customers can continue funding data-center expansion. Higher Treasury yields and inflation concerns are also making large AI projects more expensive. CoreWeave financing worries Negative Sentiment: Investors are questioning AI growth expectations. OpenAI’s reported $50 billion revenue run rate was below the roughly $68 billion previously anticipated, prompting concern that AI demand may mature more slowly. Microsoft’s development of custom Maia chips also highlights the risk of customers developing alternatives to NVIDIA GPUs. OpenAI revenue expectations Negative Sentiment: Reported insider selling adds a sentiment overhang. Recent data showed NVIDIA insiders made numerous sales and no open-market purchases over the past six months, though such transactions may reflect planned diversification rather than a change in business outlook. Insiders Place Their Bets In other NVIDIA news, CFO Colette Kress sold 34,918 shares of the stock in a transaction dated Thursday, September 17th. The stock was sold at an average price of $219.05, for a total value of $7,648,787.90. Following the completion of the sale, the chief financial officer directly owned 765,103 shares in the company, valued at $167,595,812.15. This represents a 4.36% decrease in their ownership of the stock. The sale was disclosed in a legal filing with the Securities & Exchange Commission, which is available through the SEC website. The transaction was executed under a pre-arranged Rule 10b5-1 trading plan. Also, EVP Timothy S. Teter sold 30,460 shares of the stock in a transaction dated Monday, September 21st. The stock was sold at an average price of $222.80, for a total value of $6,786,488.00. Following the completion of the sale, the executive vice president owned 2,687,660 shares of the company’s stock, valued at $598,810,648. This trade represents a 1.12% decrease in their ownership of the stock. The SEC filing for this sale provides additional information. The transaction was executed under a pre-arranged Rule 10b5-1 trading plan. Over the last ninety days, insiders have sold 1,766,118 shares of company stock worth $399,450,353. Corporate insiders own 3.94% of the company’s stock. NVIDIA Price Performance Shares of NASDAQ:NVDA opened at $214.13 on Monday. The company has a 50 day moving average price of $223.20 and a two-hundred day moving average price of $211.42. The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.14, a quick ratio of 3.85 and a current ratio of 4.59. The company has a market capitalization of $5.16 trillion, a PE ratio of 27.07, a PEG ratio of 1.65 and a beta of 2.22. NVIDIA Corporation has a 52 week low of $164.27 and a 52 week high of $243.37.

NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA – Get Free Report) last announced its quarterly earnings results on Wednesday, August 26th. The computer hardware maker reported $2.22 earnings per share for the quarter, topping analysts’ consensus estimates of $2.09 by $0.13. NVIDIA had a net margin of 63.66% and a return on equity of 96.04%. The company had revenue of $96.22 billion for the quarter, compared to analysts’ expectations of $92.27 billion. During the same period last year, the firm posted $1.05 earnings per share. The business’s quarterly revenue was up 105.9% compared to the same quarter last year. Analysts forecast that NVIDIA Corporation will post 9.30 earnings per share for the current year.

NVIDIA declared that its Board of Directors has initiated a stock buyback plan on Monday, September 28th that allows the company to repurchase $150.00 billion in shares. This repurchase authorization allows the computer hardware maker to repurchase up to 2.8% of its stock through open market purchases. Stock repurchase plans are generally a sign that the company’s board of directors believes its shares are undervalued.

NVIDIA Announces Dividend The firm also recently disclosed a quarterly dividend, which was paid on Thursday, October 1st. Investors of record on Thursday, September 10th were paid a dividend of $0.25 per share. This represents a $1.00 annualized dividend and a yield of 0.5%. The ex-dividend date of this dividend was Thursday, September 10th. NVIDIA’s dividend payout ratio (DPR) is presently 12.64%.

Wall Street Analysts Forecast Growth NVDA has been the topic of several research reports. Wedbush upped their price target on shares of NVIDIA from $330.00 to $345.00 and gave the stock an “outperform” rating in a research report on Thursday, August 27th. Needham & Company LLC restated a “buy” rating and issued a $300.00 price objective on shares of NVIDIA in a research report on Friday, September 4th. Daiwa Securities Group dropped their target price on shares of NVIDIA from $255.00 to $245.00 and set an “outperform” rating for the company in a research note on Thursday, September 17th. DZ Bank reiterated a “buy” rating on shares of NVIDIA in a research report on Wednesday, August 26th. Finally, Melius Research set a $420.00 target price on shares of NVIDIA in a research report on Thursday, August 27th. Five analysts have rated the stock with a Strong Buy rating, forty-nine have assigned a Buy rating and one has assigned a Hold rating to the company’s stock. According to MarketBeat, NVIDIA presently has a consensus rating of “Buy” and an average target price of $321.89.

View Our Latest Analysis on NVIDIA

NVIDIA Company Profile (Free Report)

NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) is a technology company that designs graphics processing units (GPUs), accelerated computing platforms, networking products and related software. Its technologies support artificial intelligence, machine learning, scientific computing, data analytics, professional visualization and computer graphics.

The company’s products include GeForce GPUs for gaming and personal computing, data center GPUs and systems for AI and high-performance computing, and networking solutions used to connect and manage large-scale computing infrastructure.

Further Reading Five stocks we like better than NVIDIA These 3 Green Stocks Have a Growth Story That Goes Far Beyond Washington Meta Claims Frontier-Class AI Status With New Muse Wonder Models Berkshire Just Backed This Little-Known Stock—Should You Chase It? Broadcom’s CEO Sees Years of AI Demand But Warns of a Bigger Threat to the Boom

Receive News & Ratings for NVIDIA Daily - Enter your email address below to receive a concise daily summary of the latest news and analysts' ratings for NVIDIA and related companies with MarketBeat.com's FREE daily email newsletter.

United Community Bank decreased its position in shares of NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA – Free Report) by 37.6% during the 2nd quarter, according to its most recent filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The institutional investor owned 13,860 shares of the computer hardware maker’s stock after selling 8,345 shares during the quarter. NVIDIA accounts for about 0.9% of United Community Bank’s holdings, making the stock its 23rd biggest position. United Community Bank’s holdings in NVIDIA were worth $2,773,000 at the end of the most recent reporting period.

Other institutional investors have also modified their holdings of the company. Bank of America Corp DE boosted its position in NVIDIA by 2.2% during the second quarter. Bank of America Corp DE now owns 195,366,864 shares of the computer hardware maker’s stock worth $39,090,956,000 after purchasing an additional 4,165,875 shares in the last quarter. Amundi increased its position in shares of NVIDIA by 10.4% in the first quarter. Amundi now owns 133,768,018 shares of the computer hardware maker’s stock valued at $23,329,141,000 after buying an additional 12,575,177 shares in the last quarter. Dimensional Fund Advisors LP increased its position in shares of NVIDIA by 0.6% in the first quarter. Dimensional Fund Advisors LP now owns 94,521,253 shares of the computer hardware maker’s stock valued at $16,479,126,000 after buying an additional 555,221 shares in the last quarter. Deutsche Bank AG increased its position in shares of NVIDIA by 2.3% in the second quarter. Deutsche Bank AG now owns 91,954,159 shares of the computer hardware maker’s stock valued at $18,399,108,000 after buying an additional 2,045,101 shares in the last quarter. Finally, Jupiter Topco LLC acquired a new position in shares of NVIDIA during the 2nd quarter worth $16,156,076,000. Hedge funds and other institutional investors own 65.27% of the company’s stock.

Key Headlines Impacting NVIDIA Here are the key news stories impacting NVIDIA this week:

Positive Sentiment: New RTX Spark laptops expand NVIDIA’s addressable market. Systems from ASUS, Dell, HP, Lenovo, Microsoft and MSI are now available starting at $2,599, combining Blackwell graphics, up to 128GB of memory and local AI capabilities. The launch could create a new consumer and developer revenue stream beyond data centers. NVIDIA RTX Spark PCs Available Today Positive Sentiment: Automotive and enterprise adoption continues. Volvo expanded its partnership with NVIDIA for automated-driving systems, while Adobe is integrating NVIDIA technology across Photoshop, Premiere and other creative tools. These agreements support longer-term demand for NVIDIA hardware and software. Volvo Cars expands automated driving partnership Positive Sentiment: Supply-chain investment and customer deployments remain strong. Taiwan is reportedly considering as much as $4 billion for Texas industrial parks serving NVIDIA suppliers, and customers continue deploying Blackwell systems. The developments reinforce demand, although they may take time to affect revenue. Taiwan Texas industrial parks Neutral Sentiment: NVIDIA is broadening its software and AI-model ecosystem. Paid offerings such as AI Enterprise and Mission Control, along with Nemotron open models and partnerships with AI startups, could make earnings less dependent on hardware. However, the articles provide no near-term financial contribution. Negative Sentiment: AI financing concerns are the main pressure. CoreWeave’s debt has reportedly traded at distressed yields, raising questions about whether highly leveraged customers can continue funding data-center expansion. Higher Treasury yields and inflation concerns are also making large AI projects more expensive. CoreWeave financing worries Negative Sentiment: Investors are questioning AI growth expectations. OpenAI’s reported $50 billion revenue run rate was below the roughly $68 billion previously anticipated, prompting concern that AI demand may mature more slowly. Microsoft’s development of custom Maia chips also highlights the risk of customers developing alternatives to NVIDIA GPUs. OpenAI revenue expectations Negative Sentiment: Reported insider selling adds a sentiment overhang. Recent data showed NVIDIA insiders made numerous sales and no open-market purchases over the past six months, though such transactions may reflect planned diversification rather than a change in business outlook. NVIDIA Price Performance NVDA opened at $214.13 on Monday. The company has a quick ratio of 3.85, a current ratio of 4.59 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.14. The firm has a market cap of $5.16 trillion, a P/E ratio of 27.07, a PEG ratio of 1.65 and a beta of 2.22. NVIDIA Corporation has a 52 week low of $164.27 and a 52 week high of $243.37. The business’s fifty day simple moving average is $223.20 and its 200 day simple moving average is $211.42. NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA – Get Free Report) last posted its quarterly earnings data on Wednesday, August 26th. The computer hardware maker reported $2.22 EPS for the quarter, topping analysts’ consensus estimates of $2.09 by $0.13. The firm had revenue of $96.22 billion during the quarter, compared to analysts’ expectations of $92.27 billion. NVIDIA had a return on equity of 96.04% and a net margin of 63.66%. The firm’s quarterly revenue was up 105.9% compared to the same quarter last year. During the same quarter last year, the business posted $1.05 EPS. As a group, equities research analysts anticipate that NVIDIA Corporation will post 9.30 EPS for the current fiscal year.

NVIDIA Announces Dividend The company also recently declared a quarterly dividend, which was paid on Thursday, October 1st. Shareholders of record on Thursday, September 10th were paid a dividend of $0.25 per share. This represents a $1.00 annualized dividend and a dividend yield of 0.5%. The ex-dividend date of this dividend was Thursday, September 10th. NVIDIA’s dividend payout ratio (DPR) is currently 12.64%.

NVIDIA declared that its Board of Directors has authorized a stock buyback plan on Monday, September 28th that allows the company to repurchase $150.00 billion in shares. This repurchase authorization allows the computer hardware maker to repurchase up to 2.8% of its stock through open market purchases. Stock repurchase plans are generally an indication that the company’s board of directors believes its stock is undervalued.

Wall Street Analysts Forecast Growth Several research firms recently commented on NVDA. Phillip Securities boosted their price objective on shares of NVIDIA from $285.00 to $300.00 and gave the stock a “buy” rating in a research report on Monday, August 31st. KeyCorp restated an “overweight” rating and set a $330.00 target price on shares of NVIDIA in a report on Monday, August 24th. Cantor Fitzgerald restated an “overweight” rating and set a $350.00 target price on shares of NVIDIA in a research report on Thursday, October 1st. UBS Group reaffirmed a “buy” rating on shares of NVIDIA in a report on Friday, October 9th. Finally, Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft reaffirmed a “buy” rating on shares of NVIDIA in a report on Monday, August 31st. Five analysts have rated the stock with a Strong Buy rating, forty-nine have issued a Buy rating and one has assigned a Hold rating to the company’s stock. According to data from MarketBeat, NVIDIA currently has a consensus rating of “Buy” and an average target price of $321.89.

Read Our Latest Report on NVDA

Insiders Place Their Bets In other news, Director Mark A. Stevens sold 622,239 shares of the business’s stock in a transaction that occurred on Friday, September 4th. The shares were sold at an average price of $231.62, for a total value of $144,122,997.18. Following the completion of the transaction, the director owned 2,336,531 shares of the company’s stock, valued at $541,187,310.22. The trade was a 21.03% decrease in their ownership of the stock. The transaction was disclosed in a filing with the SEC, which is available at the SEC website. Also, EVP Timothy S. Teter sold 30,460 shares of the company’s stock in a transaction that occurred on Monday, September 21st. The shares were sold at an average price of $222.80, for a total transaction of $6,786,488.00. Following the transaction, the executive vice president directly owned 2,687,660 shares in the company, valued at $598,810,648. The trade was a 1.12% decrease in their position. The SEC filing for this sale provides additional information. The transaction was executed under a pre-arranged Rule 10b5-1 trading plan. Insiders have sold 1,766,118 shares of company stock valued at $399,450,353 in the last ninety days. Insiders own 3.94% of the company’s stock.

NVIDIA Company Profile (Free Report)

NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) is a technology company that designs graphics processing units (GPUs), accelerated computing platforms, networking products and related software. Its technologies support artificial intelligence, machine learning, scientific computing, data analytics, professional visualization and computer graphics.

The company’s products include GeForce GPUs for gaming and personal computing, data center GPUs and systems for AI and high-performance computing, and networking solutions used to connect and manage large-scale computing infrastructure.

See Also Five stocks we like better than NVIDIA These 3 Green Stocks Have a Growth Story That Goes Far Beyond Washington Meta Claims Frontier-Class AI Status With New Muse Wonder Models Berkshire Just Backed This Little-Known Stock—Should You Chase It? Broadcom’s CEO Sees Years of AI Demand But Warns of a Bigger Threat to the Boom Want to see what other hedge funds are holding NVDA? Visit HoldingsChannel.com to get the latest 13F filings and insider trades for NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA – Free Report).

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Good Morning Traders!

Monday, October 19 has a lighter scheduled economic calendar, with the NAHB Housing Market Index at 10:00AM ET providing today’s main housing sentiment update. It measures builders’ confidence, not completed home sales, and can help show how borrowing costs are affecting demand. U.S. stocks have a normal trading session. The Fed’s policy communication blackout is now in place ahead of next week’s meeting, limiting fresh policy commentary rather than removing the market’s sensitivity to interest rates. 

Overnight, oil prices have fallen as investors weigh possible relief from Russian energy sanctions, helping stock futures recover. The policy picture remains unclear, and shipping risks around the Strait of Hormuz have not disappeared. Cheaper oil can ease inflation concerns, but it does not resolve questions about the debt and spending behind AI expansion. That leaves room for today’s early rebound and the underlying concerns to coexist. 

Watch participation, observable volume, Treasury yields and whether a recovered level holds when price returns to test it. NVDA and MSFT are improving early while AAPL and META are lagging, so broader leadership would make the rebound more convincing. Meta and Tesla report earnings Wednesday, October 21, but today’s nearby levels still come first.

Now, we will discuss SPY, QQQ, AAPL, MSFT, NVDA, GOOGL, META, and TSLA.

SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY)

SPY is currently trading around 767.25 as buyers attempt to recover part of Friday’s sharp decline. Lower oil prices are helping the early market backdrop, but price remains inside Friday’s range. If buyers reclaim the midday rebound high at 768.30, price may test the earlier morning low at 768.45. Clearing that nearby barrier could bring the recovery high at 769.53 into focus. Buyers still need to protect recovered ground rather than give back another opening advance. 

If Friday’s midday low at 766.32 fails to hold, sellers may test the afternoon rebound high at 765.77. Continued pressure could bring Thursday’s low at 764.43 into play. Returning above 766.32 would weaken that immediate downside scenario. The gap above Friday’s close is a recovery attempt, not proof that last week’s selling has ended. Watch whether financial stocks and technology begin supporting the same move.

Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (QQQ)

QQQ is currently trading around 717.75 after Friday’s heavy technology selling, with the early rebound already carrying price well above the session close. If buyers reclaim Friday’s late morning reference at 718.51, price may recover toward the subsequent rebound high at 718.92. Clearing that area could bring the 719.98 to 720.14 region formed by Friday morning’s lows into focus. Those nearby barriers come before any attempt to revisit the opening range. 

If Friday’s midday rebound high at 717.84 fails to hold, sellers may test the earlier 716.34 low. Continued weakness could expose the midday low at 715.48, with the afternoon rebound high at 714.50 becoming relevant if the pullback expands. Reclaiming 717.84 would interrupt that downside path. NVDA and MSFT are rebounding while AAPL and META are lagging. Watch whether participation improves, because a large opening gap can still fade if fewer stocks support it.

Apple Inc. (AAPL)

AAPL is currently trading around 342.75, below Friday’s close even as the broader technology market attempts to rebound. Alibaba said overnight that its initial iPhone Duo allocation on Apple’s Tmall store sold out almost immediately, adding a fresh demand headline. Price is already above the October 12 high at 342.63. If buyers defend it, the recovery may extend toward Friday’s official close at 343.46, followed by the late session rebound high at 344.39. 

If Friday afternoon’s low at 342.14 breaks and buyers cannot recover it, sellers may test the 341.60 to 341.72 area formed by Thursday’s and Wednesday’s lows. Further weakness could expose Friday’s session low at 340.46. Returning above 342.14 would weaken that downside case. The allocation report describes an early batch, not the product’s eventual total sales. For today, the useful test is whether Apple can recover its own nearby levels rather than simply benefit from a stronger QQQ.

Microsoft Corp. (MSFT)

MSFT is currently trading around 530.00 after Friday’s reversal from 543.82, with buyers now trying to repair part of that decline. If price reclaims Thursday’s low at 531.22, a recovery toward Friday’s late morning rebound high at 531.53 may develop. Clearing that barrier could bring Wednesday’s low at 532.54 into focus. Holding the first reclaimed area would make the rebound more convincing than an advance that quickly slips back. 

If MSFT cannot recover Friday’s late morning low at 530.23, sellers may test the subsequent rebound high at 529.80, followed by the official close at 529.05. Returning above 530.23 would interrupt that downside path. A Sunday Reuters report, citing the Telegraph, said Microsoft withdrew from Nscale’s Loughton data center project. Nscale said its other Microsoft contracts were unaffected, so this report should not be treated as proof of a broad retreat from AI investment.

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)
NVDA is currently trading around 217.25, rebounding from Friday’s weak finish as chip stocks attempt to stabilize. Santander today announced a new collaboration framework using NVIDIA’s AI infrastructure, providing a fresh company headline. If buyers clear Friday’s late morning rebound high at 218.10 and hold that recovery, price may test Thursday’s high at 218.47. Friday’s high at 218.68 is the next nearby hurdle. Those levels matter before looking for a larger repair of last week’s decline. 

If Friday’s midday low at 216.81 fails to hold, sellers may guide price toward the afternoon rebound high at 216.14. Continued weakness could bring the earlier 215.56 pullback low into play. Returning above 216.81 would weaken the immediate downside case. The rebound is already above Friday’s close, so watch whether buyers preserve that progress through the first pullback rather than assuming a favorable partnership headline will keep the stock moving higher.

Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL)

GOOGL is currently trading around 341.75 after Friday’s decline left the stock near the bottom of its session range. The early rebound is repairing part of that damage, but nearby resistance still needs attention. If buyers reclaim Friday’s midday low at 342.08, price may advance toward the afternoon rebound high at 342.83. A recovery that holds there could bring the earlier 343.13 low into focus. Buyers need to establish support as those former levels are recovered. 

If Friday afternoon’s low at 340.94 fails to hold, sellers may test the official close at 340.59. A deeper retreat could bring Friday’s session low at 339.08 into play. Reclaiming 340.94 would interrupt that downside path. Alphabet’s rebound should be judged alongside QQQ, but the two do not have to move at the same pace. Watch whether GOOGL protects its own recovered ground when the broader market pulls back.

Meta Platforms Inc (META)

META is currently trading around 704.50, still below Friday’s close while several other large technology stocks rebound. That leaves buyers with nearby resistance to repair before the recovery looks more convincing. If META reclaims the 706.95 to 707.15 area formed by Friday’s late rebound highs, price may work toward the official close at 709.33. Clearing that reference could bring the late session high at 710.18 into focus. A bounce that stalls below those areas would leave much of Friday’s damage unresolved. 

If Friday’s low at 702.71 breaks and cannot be recovered, sellers may test the September 21 morning pullback low at 702.30. Continued pressure could bring that session’s early high at 700.00 into play. Returning above 702.71 would weaken the immediate downside scenario. Wednesday’s earnings remain ahead, making revenue growth and the cost of AI expansion important context. For today, price still needs to demonstrate that buyers can defend a recovery.

Tesla Inc. (TSLA)

TSLA is currently trading around 353.25 after Friday’s sharp reversal erased the early advance that followed the Roadster unveiling. The stock needs to recover nearby resistance before a stronger rebound takes shape. If buyers reclaim Thursday’s low at 355.23, price may test Friday’s late session high at 355.42. Clearing that nearby hurdle could bring the midday pullback low at 356.88 into focus. Holding recovered ground would matter more than another brief surge. 

If Friday’s late rebound reference at 353.04 fails to hold, sellers may test the earlier afternoon low at 351.27, followed by the later 350.95 low. Friday’s session low at 349.33 becomes relevant if that pullback expands. Returning above 353.04 would weaken the immediate downside case. Tesla’s earnings are scheduled for Wednesday, October 21. The Roadster reveal is now behind us, so watch the actual recovery rather than assuming last week’s excitement will return.

Final Word: Good luck, trade safely, and have a great Monday!

Benzinga Disclaimer: This article is from an unpaid external contributor. It does not represent Benzinga’s reporting and has not been edited for content or accuracy.

© 2026 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.

Nvidia (NVDA.O) has won central processor chip business with another fast-growing AI startup that until now relied entirely on chips from Intel and ​AMD, an early sign that its push into a market long ‌controlled by those two rivals has traction.

Modal, a cloud-computing startup that rents out computing power to AI developers, said it plans to start using Nvidia's new Vera central processor for the first time ​for hosting agents, the AI systems that can carry out long-running tasks for ​human users. Modal until now has run such work only on ⁠Intel and AMD chips.

Modal last week raised $750 million in a funding round led ​by Accel at a $15.75 billion valuation, saying it is on track to record $1 billion ​in sales over the next year. Modal said usage of its services has tripled and revenue has grown more than 15 times year-over-year.

Modal said Monday that early tests showed the new Nvidia chip ​doubled the amount of work that AI agents can get done, prompting the ​company to support Nvidia's chip design for the first time, which will require some deep software ‌changes on ⁠Modal's side.

But Chief Executive Erik Bernhardsson was careful to stress it is not abandoning its existing suppliers. The company said it will run the Nvidia chips alongside its current Intel and AMD offerings in a mixed fleet, putting each job on whatever ​hardware runs it ​best.

Bernhardsson said the tests ⁠were run against the Intel and AMD chips already on the market. Both Nvidia rivals are developing newer models that could ​narrow the gap with Nvidia.

"We'll test them when they're available," ​he said, ⁠adding that running a mixed setup means the company "can always deploy whatever hardware performs best."

Nvidia has told investors it expects to generate at least $20 billion from Vera chip sales this ⁠fiscal year, ​its opening bid for a market it values ​at roughly $200 billion. Nvidia has previously said OpenAI, Anthropic and Oracle also plan to use the chips, along ​with AI startups such as Perplexity.

Artificial intelligence (AI) stocks have taken a tremendous hit in October, as a toxic combination of higher interest rates and skepticism over the returns on AI spending has led to a steep sell-off.

Higher interest rates make it more costly to build AI data centers, all else being equal. Meanwhile, while leading AI labs Anthropic and OpenAI are still private, recent media leaks about their third-quarter revenue figures have suggested a potential slowdown.

If these two labs' revenues don't grow as much as some people anticipate, investors may cast doubt on the entire AI build-out, since Anthropic and OpenAI wouldn't be able to fund their commitments.

Are the fears real, or overblown? This week, Nvidia (NVDA -1.43%) CEO Jensen Huang weighed in on this very issue on a popular tech podcast.

NVDA Nvidia$214.13-$3.10 (-1.43%)

NASDAQ · As of 4:00 PM ET 10/16/26

The controversy
On Oct. 8, The Financial Times reported that in an investor presentation, OpenAI revealed it had reached $50 billion in annualized recurring revenue (ARR). That is well short of the $70 billion revenue figure leaked in September. While the difference was later addressed as a discrepancy in accounting methods, the headline still caused anxiety.

Then last week, Anthropic held its own investor presentations, revealing that it had made roughly $16.8 billion in revenue in Q3. Considering Anthropic generated only $4.6 billion in revenue in all of 2025, that's a remarkable achievement. Yet investors may still have been disappointed. In August, it was leaked that Anthropic was already at a $65 billion ARR at the end of July. So, the $67.2 billion Q3 annualized revenue figure would indicate a pretty sharp slowdown from July through September.

The back-to-back "leaks," along with rising inflation, were enough to send AI-related stocks, especially in the semiconductor sector, into a tailspin. After all, if Anthropic and OpenAI are slowing down, or not making as much as they thought, who is going to buy all of these chips and build all these expensive data centers?

Image source: Getty Images.

Jensen: AI is bigger than Anthropic and OpenAI
Last Thursday, Nvidia (NVDA -1.43%) CEO Jensen Huang appeared on a podcast with venture capitalist Brad Gerstner. In that interview, Gerstner put the big question to Huang: Would Anthropic and OpenAI generate enough revenue to continue growing the AI build-out?

Huang remained confident for the following reasons.

1. There's more than just two frontier labs
The first point Huang made was that Anthropic and OpenAI aren't the only two frontier labs. During the interview, Huang pointed not only to OpenAI and Anthropic but also Grok, the chatbot and agent from xAI, which is owned by Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX -1.74%), Meta Platforms' (META -3.72%) new Muse agent, and Alphabet's (GOOG -2.32%) (GOOGL -2.47%) Gemini, as all "doing great" and growing.

Of note, Grok Bot, xAI's new personal and business agent, launched in August. Meta Platform's much-lauded Muse personal agent debuted in September. An impressive open-weight model from China's Moonshot AI, called Kimi, debuted in July. Not to be outdone, OpenAI released its latest Codex model in July as well, meant to compete more strongly with Anthropic's leading coding capabilities.

That's a deluge of competitive agents substantively entering the fray during Q3. As such, it's perhaps inevitable that Anthropic's slowdown was due to competition and market-share loss rather than an overall slowdown in AI usage or spending.

While we don't have exact figures, Axios reported that OpenAI's revenue run rate grew by roughly 70% in Q3, well above Anthropic's 46% quarter-over-quarter growth. That seems to price in the share-loss story, not a general AI slowdown story. We also don't know how much SpaceX, Alphabet, or Meta's AI-related revenue grew, as they haven't reported earnings yet. None of these companies breaks down AI agent revenue specifically, either. So, it may be difficult to even understand how fast AI agentic revenue is growing inside these companies when they do report.

2. Frontier Labs are only 25% to 33% of Nvidia revenue right now
Another point Huang made was that frontier labs account for only a quarter to one-third of Nvidia's chip demand. Another third, according to Huang, is general computing, while the final third involves new and emerging AI-related companies. These companies, for instance, may use an open-weights model and then add proprietary data and industry knowledge to create new AI products.

On general computing growth, one point Huang has stressed over the past couple of years is that Moore's Law is "over." Moore's Law says that the amount of computing power roughly doubles every year at the same price, as chips pack more and more transistors onto a piece of silicon. However, Huang claims that semiconductor manufacturing is running up against the laws of physics and that, as a result, compute efficiency gains are slowing. Therefore, if someone wants to double their compute next year, the cost will increase rather than remain the same.

Given that there are more than just two labs, and that frontier labs account for only 25% to 35% of demand, Huang thinks people are putting way too much emphasis on OpenAI and Anthropic. Meanwhile, those labs still appear to be doing quite well even as they face more competition.

There should still be a shortage
Almost all commentary from leading AI chip companies says there is still a huge shortage of compute relative to demand. So even if leading frontier labs are under competitive pressure, semiconductors seem likely to find a buyer somewhere.

It appears from early Q3 earnings reports, especially from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, that chip demand remains strong. However, AI investors would do well to listen to other companies downstream from the chip giants to see whether they are generating AI-related revenue growth and efficiency gains.

Ultimately, AI will have to generate revenue and/or cost efficiencies for the end customer to justify this spending. So, commentary from AI users -- not necessarily the chipmakers themselves -- may be more important to chip stock performance than the chip companies' earnings during this upcoming earnings season.

The company, co-founded by Mobileye CEO Amnon Shashua, says it slashed one early customer's compute costs by 67%.

Nvidia lost approximately $365 billion in market value last week as rising borrowing costs cast doubt on the sustainability of Wall Street's artificial intelligence spending boom.

The chipmaker's shares fell 6.6% over the five sessions ending 16 October, closing at $214.13. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped 11.4%, underscoring mounting concern across the industry.

Demand for Nvidia's processors remains strong. The bigger worry is whether companies building the data centres that house those chips can continue financing their ambitions.

CoreWeave, the Nvidia-backed cloud provider, lost nearly a quarter of its market value last week as its borrowing costs surged.

Yields on one of its bonds climbed above 15%, up from around 9.6%, while investors demanded substantially more protection against default.

Paul Chew, head of research at Phillip Securities, estimates CoreWeave has roughly $30 billion in net debt and another $36 billion in lease commitments, supported by a $104 billion revenue backlog.

A four-percentage-point increase in financing costs could add almost $500 million to annual interest expenses, Chew warned in a research note published Monday.

“Nvidia cannot afford CoreWeave to fail,” he wrote.

Nvidia owns approximately 11% of CoreWeave, which buys its processors and helps broaden chip demand beyond technology giants.

However, the risks remain prospective, as CoreWeave's contracted backlog offers some protection, and Nvidia chief executive Jensen Huang has defended the company's financial strength.

Building data centres requires enormous upfront expenditure on processors, energy and cooling systems. Revenue often arrives years later, leaving operators exposed when borrowing becomes more expensive.

My Bui, an economist at AMP told Reuters on Monday that rising government bond yields and wider corporate credit spreads were increasing financing costs, complicating borrowing and refinancing.

She also questioned whether future AI revenues would recover construction costs before equipment depreciates.

The strain extends beyond individual borrowers. The Financial Times reported on Sunday that at least 47 major US data-centre projects have been stalled or cancelled this year, reflecting financing, power and planning constraints.

Yet the pressure is uneven. It is concentrated among heavily leveraged operators. Microsoft, Alphabet and Meta have much stronger financial resources than smaller providers dependent on debt markets.

That distinction matters for Nvidia, as its customers may still want more computing capacity, even if some lack affordable capital to build it immediately.

Investors will look to Meta's earnings on Wednesday for reassurance that spending by major customers remains intact.

Meta expects capital expenditure of $130 billion to $145 billion this year. Goldman Sachs estimates that five major AI hyperscalers could spend approximately $1.2 trillion combined in 2027.

Those commitments support Nvidia's growth outlook, but greater spending is not automatically good news if profits and cash generation deteriorate.

Technology investor Michael Parekh wrote in his AI: Reset to Zero newsletter on Monday: “This is a financing cycle more than a demand cycle.”

He expects financing strains to delay construction and drive consolidation rather than eliminate demand for computing power.

Even if you don't hold any bonds in your portfolio, paying attention to the market can offer some very valuable insights about your stock portfolio. Some investors may have found that out the hard way recently.

CoreWeave (CRWV -11.91%), the leading neocloud company backed by Nvidia (NVDA -1.43%), saw its stock pummeled after venture capitalist Chamath Palihapitiya shared a chart on social media showing its recently issued bonds set to expire in 2032 touched a 15% yield. CoreWeave issued the bonds with a 9.625% coupon in June. Reuters later reported that the 9.75% notes CoreWeave issued in April due in 2031 topped a yield of 16%.

The rising yields on CoreWeave's debt indicate the market believes CoreWeave's risk of default is increasing. Doubts are starting to creep in about whether the neocloud company can generate returns on its invested capital that exceed the cost of capital, especially amid a rising interest rate environment. Other neocloud companies such as Nebius (NBIS -12.18%) face similar pressures.

That's bad news for Nvidia and its investors.

Image source: Nvidia.

Nvidia's future is tied to CoreWeave and the neoclouds Nvidia's biggest customers may be the big investment-grade tech companies building out robust platforms and their own AI stacks, but the neoclouds present one of its biggest sources of growth going forward. Nvidia made efforts to ensure that when it made strategic investments in CoreWeave and Nebius earlier this year. The chipmaker invested $2 billion in each of the neoclouds. As such, any decline in their stock prices has an immediate impact on Nvidia's balance sheet.

Nvidia also signed an agreement with CoreWeave last year to buy any unused capacity from CoreWeave through 2032. While Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang says he doesn't think the company will have to step in, it's still a liability that hangs over the company. CoreWeave cites its $104 billion backlog of contracted revenue as a defense against the need for a backstop. Management says that's more than enough to cover its debt obligations.

CRWV CoreWeave$61.39-$8.30 (-11.91%)

NASDAQ · As of 4:00 PM ET 10/16/26

Most importantly for Nvidia, the neocloud companies are dedicated to building with Nvidia. Nvidia's strategic investments and willingness to help finance purchases are key reasons. But if the rising cost of capital catches up with the neoclouds before they can deliver returns, a key driver of Nvidia's sales growth could become a massive drag.

While the hyperscalers have much deeper pockets, they're all looking to add more of their own custom-designed AI accelerators, or XPUs, to their data centers instead of Nvidia GPUs. Amazon CEO Andy Jassy has said that using its Trainium chips saves it tens of billions in capital expenditures every year. Alphabet's Google Cloud CEO noted that the payback period for its custom TPUs is less than half that of its average server. Microsoft recently indicated plans to expand the use of its Maia chips for inference starting next year. In short, Nvidia can't rely on its largest customers to drive sales growth, even as they spend more on building AI data centers.

What it means for Nvidia investors Nvidia is unlikely to let CoreWeave or its other neocloud partners fail. But any signs of failure for the businesses will put pressure on its finances and growth.

Nvidia could end up lending CoreWeave more money through its financing arm. However, Nvidia's plans to finance up to $500 billion in AI build-outs have faced objections from its banking partners over the residual value of its GPUs. The chips Nvidia sells to its partners are used as collateral for the debt, so if they retain less value than Nvidia claims, Nvidia will have to cover more of the default risk itself.

NVDA Nvidia$214.13-$3.10 (-1.43%)

NASDAQ · As of 4:00 PM ET 10/16/26

The chipmaker is reportedly in talks with insurance companies about offloading some of the liability. Either way, it's a drag on Nvidia's finances in order to keep growing its sales. What's more, the bond market is saying those loans may be riskier than Nvidia originally thought.

That risk will fall to Nvidia by extension. The good news for investors is that the market already appears to be pricing in the risk of such financial pressure. Investors currently pay just 23 times forward earnings expectations for the stock, which is a low price for a company that just grew its bottom line by 126% year over year. The bond market just showed exactly why investors probably shouldn't be willing to pay more than that, though.

Adam Levy has positions in Alphabet, Amazon, and Microsoft. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.