Track market-moving stories before they get noisy

Nike (NKE - Free Report) is one of the stocks most watched by Zacks.com visitors lately. So, it might be a good idea to review some of the factors that might affect the near-term performance of the stock.

Over the past month, shares of this athletic apparel maker have returned +0.2%, compared to the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +0.6% change. During this period, the Zacks Shoes and Retail Apparel industry, which Nike falls in, has lost 3.2%. The key question now is: What could be the stock's future direction?

Although media reports or rumors about a significant change in a company's business prospects usually cause its stock to trend and lead to an immediate price change, there are always certain fundamental factors that ultimately drive the buy-and-hold decision.

Earnings Estimate RevisionsHere at Zacks, we prioritize appraising the change in the projection of a company's future earnings over anything else. That's because we believe the present value of its future stream of earnings is what determines the fair value for its stock.

We essentially look at how sell-side analysts covering the stock are revising their earnings estimates to reflect the impact of the latest business trends. And if earnings estimates go up for a company, the fair value for its stock goes up. A higher fair value than the current market price drives investors' interest in buying the stock, leading to its price moving higher. This is why empirical research shows a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and near-term stock price movements.

For the current quarter, Nike is expected to post earnings of $0.43 per share, indicating a change of -12.2% from the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed -6.1% over the last 30 days.

For the current fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of $1.74 points to a change of +10.1% from the prior year. Over the last 30 days, this estimate has changed -5.8%.

For the next fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of $2.35 indicates a change of +35.1% from what Nike is expected to report a year ago. Over the past month, the estimate has changed -8.1%.

Having a strong externally audited track record, our proprietary stock rating tool, the Zacks Rank, offers a more conclusive picture of a stock's price direction in the near term, since it effectively harnesses the power of earnings estimate revisions. Due to the size of the recent change in the consensus estimate, along with three other factors related to earnings estimates, Nike is rated Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).

The chart below shows the evolution of the company's forward 12-month consensus EPS estimate:

12 Month EPS

Projected Revenue GrowthWhile earnings growth is arguably the most superior indicator of a company's financial health, nothing happens as such if a business isn't able to grow its revenues. After all, it's nearly impossible for a company to increase its earnings for an extended period without increasing its revenues. So, it's important to know a company's potential revenue growth.

In the case of Nike, the consensus sales estimate of $11.46 billion for the current quarter points to a year-over-year change of -2.2%. The $46.28 billion and $48.15 billion estimates for the current and next fiscal years indicate changes of -0.2% and +4%, respectively.

Last Reported Results and Surprise HistoryNike reported revenues of $10.97 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of -1.1%. EPS of $0.2 for the same period compares with $0.14 a year ago.

Compared to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $10.85 billion, the reported revenues represent a surprise of +1.13%. The EPS surprise was +81.82%.

The company beat consensus EPS estimates in each of the trailing four quarters. The company topped consensus revenue estimates each time over this period.

ValuationWithout considering a stock's valuation, no investment decision can be efficient. In predicting a stock's future price performance, it's crucial to determine whether its current price correctly reflects the intrinsic value of the underlying business and the company's growth prospects.

While comparing the current values of a company's valuation multiples, such as price-to-earnings (P/E), price-to-sales (P/S), and price-to-cash flow (P/CF), with its own historical values helps determine whether its stock is fairly valued, overvalued, or undervalued, comparing the company relative to its peers on these parameters gives a good sense of the reasonability of the stock's price.

The Zacks Value Style Score (part of the Zacks Style Scores system), which pays close attention to both traditional and unconventional valuation metrics to grade stocks from A to F (an A is better than a B; a B is better than a C; and so on), is pretty helpful in identifying whether a stock is overvalued, rightly valued, or temporarily undervalued.

Nike is graded C on this front, indicating that it is trading at par with its peers. Click here to see the values of some of the valuation metrics that have driven this grade.

Bottom LineThe facts discussed here and much other information on Zacks.com might help determine whether or not it's worthwhile paying attention to the market buzz about Nike. However, its Zacks Rank #4 does suggest that it may underperform the broader market in the near term.

Nike is trading at a deep discount to its previous highs, potentially undervaluing future earnings. Management is restructuring the business for sustainable long-term growth.

Nike will shift online sales to its official website and app, as well as its flagship stores on e-commerce platforms Tmall, JD.com and Douyin from January.

Nike is planning to cut off thousands of online distributors in China beginning in January as the sneaker giant looks to clean up what's become a messy digital marketplace and get the region back to growth, the company said Tuesday. 

Starting next year, Nike's online footprint will shift primarily to the retailer's official website and app, and the storefronts it operates on Tmall, JD.com and Douyin, some of China's largest online marketplaces and social platforms. 

Currently, consumers can shop Nike through all of those channels as well as thousands of other online storefronts powered by Nike's brick-and-mortar partners in the region and a network of secondary distributors. While the vast digital network has led to widespread consumer access to Nike's products, it's also created an inconsistent branding and pricing experience and hampered the company's efforts to reverse a sales decline in the region. 

"These new flagships will serve as the single, elevated destination for Nike within these ecosystems, with clearer product presentation, stronger storytelling and more connected consumer journeys," Cathy Sparks, Nike's new vice president and general manager of Greater China, wrote in a letter. "This is about strengthening the platforms where consumers already begin and end their shopping journey, making sure those experiences are direct, consistent and unmistakably Nike."

"This is not about reducing access. It is about reducing fragmentation and strengthening the consumer journey," she said. "When the experience is consistent, the brand becomes stronger." 

Nike's plans to pare back its online footprint are designed to create a better, more consistent experience for the consumer and allow it to take back pricing control online. However, there are also concerns it could lead to a material drop in revenue in a region that's already shrunk about 30% in the last five years. 

News about Nike's plans to cut off online distributors first came to light late last month in a local Chinese media report. It prompted a note from BNP Paribas equity analyst Laurent Vasilescu, who wrote the move is reminiscent of Nike's ill-fated decision to cut off wholesalers in North America, which contributed to its collapse of market dominance in the region, as well as steep declines in sales and margins. 

"This strategy opened up shelf space for competitors and the strategy ended poorly for Nike. We believe the same could happen if it takes the same approach in China," Vasilescu wrote last month, adding that BNP was sticking with its underperform rating for the company. "We don't think Nike has a distributor problem but rather a product problem which also applies in other markets." 

The change is also expected to hurt Nike's brick-and-mortar partners in the region, which have expanded their online presence in recent years to grow their own businesses. 

Still, Topsports, Nike's largest distributor in mainland China, said it supports the company's decision. 

"Topsports has worked with Nike for 27 years based on the principle of mutual benefit and shared growth," Topsports CEO Yu Wu said in a statement. "This adjustment will bring some short-term pressure to our business. But we firmly believe that, over the medium- to long-term, this direction will help promote a healthier, more orderly, and more sustainable retail ecosystem in China, while further improving consumer experience and product appeal."

"Looking ahead, we will continue to work closely with Nike, leveraging our strengths in offline retail operations, local consumer service, and deep market development across city tiers," Wu said. "Through new concept sport stores and high-quality physical retail experiences, we will bring Chinese consumers richer and more meaningful sport experiences."

Nike (NKE 1.17%) has been struggling for years, and those challenges continued in the first half of the year, pushing the stock lower.

Nike told investors that its hoped-for turnaround would take longer than expected; revenue continued to be flat; its CFO said it was stepping down, and tariff-related expenses torched its profits.

As a result, the stock lost 36% over the first half of the year, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence.

As you can see from the chart below, the stock's declines came primarily in March and April, and it fell sharply following its third-quarter earnings report at the end of March.

NKE data by YCharts

Nike's slide continues Nike's issues in the first half of the year will be familiar to anyone who has followed the stock in recent years.

Investors have been hopeful that Elliott Hill, who took over as CEO nearly two years ago, could turn the business around, but that has yet to materialize.

In the first half of the calendar year, tariffs hit the company's profits sharply. In its third-quarter earnings report, revenue was flat at $11.3 billion, and gross margin fell 130 basis points to 40.2%.

The stock fell 15.5% on April 1 after the report came out, its worst day of the year. However, investors seemed to be more concerned about its forecast of declining revenue in the fourth quarter and comments on the earnings call that it didn't expect gross margin to return to growth until the second quarter of fiscal 2027, which ends this November. Investors were hopeful that it would get back to margin expansion sooner than that.

Additionally, the stock sank in March as the war in Iran weighed on stocks broadly, especially consumer discretionary names like Nike. Nike is sensitive to inflation, which can impact consumer spending, and the war also has the potential to disrupt supply chains.

Image source: Getty Images.

What's next for Nike Nike stock initially plunged on its fourth-quarter earnings report, released on June 30, falling double-digits in the after-hours session. However, the stock finished up 5% the following day, a sign that investors may believe that Nike is bottoming out.

The results were again mostly underwhelming, with revenue down 1%, but investors seem convinced that the new fiscal year would bring a return to margin expansion, which it continues to expect in the second quarter.

Nike's turnaround is showing results in some categories as it's now growing and gaining market share in running, but there's still a lot of work to be done. At this point, it's hard to call the stock cheap even as it's fallen more than 75% from its peak, but there's certainly upside potential if it can return to growth on the top and bottom lines.

Key Takeaways NIKE is expanding its innovation pipeline with new footwear and technologies across sports categories.NKE plans to extend NIKE Mind and Aero-FIT while launching products tied to running and athletes.NIKE expects stronger performance categories to support Sportswear and Jordan demand recovery. NIKE, Inc.’s (NKE - Free Report) innovation pipeline refers to its strategy of introducing new products, technologies and designs to reignite consumer interest and boost sales growth. As innovation has become a key pillar of NKE’s turnaround strategy, it can help it overcome challenges, including weaker demand, heightened competition and slower digital sales.

NIKE is expanding beyond its traditional franchises by introducing performance-focused footwear and apparel, such as the Pegasus Premium, Vomero 18 and other running and training products. Under its “Sport Offense” strategy, NIKE is increasing investments in key sports categories, including running, basketball, football and women’s sports. The company is emphasizing performance innovation to strengthen its connection with athletes.

The company views NIKE Mind as one of its most promising innovation platforms and plans to expand it beyond its current offerings beginning in spring 2027. Initially introduced in football kits, NKE’s Aero-FIT technology is set to expand into running apparel, where it is expected to enhance athletic performance and comfort. Its upcoming launches, including Caitlin Clark-branded products and the latest Free MetCon line, are expected to strengthen NIKE’s position in key performance categories.

The goal is to develop a steady stream of innovative footwear, apparel and accessories tailored to consumer preferences. Management believes that strong performance in categories such as running, basketball and football will create a “halo effect” for its Sportswear and Jordan brands, which together account for nearly half of the company’s revenues. To revive growth in these segments, NIKE is repositioning these businesses. NIKE Sportswear plans to launch more than a dozen new footwear styles in the second half of fiscal 2027, while leveraging its performance-focused innovations to drive demand.

Overall, NIKE’s strong innovation pipeline has the potential to reignite consumer demand, support higher full-price sales and restore long-term growth. However, the success of this strategy will ultimately depend on how consumers respond to the company’s new product launches in the coming quarters.

NKE’s Competitionlululemon athletica inc. (LULU - Free Report) continues to benefit from the progress with its Power of Three X2 growth strategy. LULU remains focused on its long-term growth strategy, which centers on continuous product innovation, enhancing the guest experience and expanding its international presence to drive sustainable growth. lululemon continues to introduce new fabrics and performance-focused products across its core women’s and men’s businesses while expanding into adjacent categories, such as footwear and accessories.

adidas AG (ADDYY - Free Report) is focused on strengthening its brand appeal through continuous product innovation, operational excellence and strategic growth initiatives. ADDYY remains committed to enhancing profitability and long-term competitiveness by maintaining inventory discipline, improving operational efficiency and advancing its sustainability efforts. In addition, adidas is expanding its global footprint through localized market strategies, increased digital investments and an ongoing expansion of its retail store network.

NKE’S Price Performance, Valuation and EstimatesShares of NIKE have lost 33.1% in the past six months compared with the industry’s decline of 28.1%.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

From a valuation standpoint, NKE trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 23.79X compared with the industry’s average of 20.63X.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NKE’s fiscal 2027 and fiscal 2028 earnings implies year-over-year growth of 10.8% and 35.4%, respectively. The company’s EPS estimate for fiscal 2027 and fiscal 2028 has moved south in the past seven days.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

On July 16, 2026, Nike Inc NKE shares rose 4.2% to a current price of $44.57. Despite today's positive movement, the stock has experienced significant volatility, as it has a 52-week range between $40.00 and $80.17.

GF Value™ verdict: Current price of $44.57 is 40.5% below the GF Value™ of $74.93.GF Score™ of 70/100 indicates an above-average rating, suggesting potential for long-term returns.Most notable signal: Insider activity shows that insiders have sold $0.8M in shares over the last three months with no buying activity. Is NKE Overvalued or Undervalued? The current price of Nike Inc NKE shares at $44.57 suggests that the stock is undervalued when compared to the GF Value™ of $74.93. This represents a margin of safety of approximately 40.5%, indicating that there is a significant upside potential if Nike can navigate its current challenges effectively. However, the GF Valuation label suggests that it is a possible value trap, urging caution. While the undervaluation presents an opportunity, potential investors should consider the risks involved, particularly given the recent downward trends in share price over the past year.

GF Value™ is GuruFocus' proprietary measure of intrinsic value, calculated from historical trading multiples, past business growth, and future performance estimates.

How Does NKE's Valuation Compare to Its History? MetricCurrentHistorical P/E (TTM)21.3x30.9x (5-Year Median) Forward P/E25.7x - Nike's current P/E ratio of 21.3x is significantly below its 5-year median of 30.9x, indicating that the stock is trading at a discount relative to its historical valuation. This P/E analysis agrees with the GF Value™ verdict of being undervalued, reinforcing the perspective that the stock may offer an attractive entry point for those willing to accept the associated risks.

What Does NKE's GF Score™ Tell Us? MetricRating GF Score™70/100 Financial Strength5/10 Profitability8/10 Growth6/10 Valuation4/10 Momentum2/10 The GF Score™ of 70/100 suggests that Nike Inc has a solid overall performance, particularly in profitability, where it scored 8/10. However, the score in momentum is relatively weak at 2/10, indicating recent struggles in maintaining a positive price trend. The scores highlight the need for caution, as while the profitability is strong, the lower scores in momentum and valuation could suggest challenges in achieving consistent growth moving forward.

What Are Insiders Doing with NKE Stock? Insider activity for Nike Inc has shown a trend of selling, with insiders selling $0.8M in shares over the last three months and no reported buying activity. This pattern may suggest a lack of confidence among insiders regarding the stock's near-term performance. Such selling can be a red flag for potential investors, as it may indicate that those closest to the company perceive challenges ahead.

What This Means for Investors Based on the GF Value™ analysis, Nike Inc NKE appears to be undervalued with a current price of $44.57 compared to a GF Value™ of $74.93. However, caution is advised due to the stock's historical performance and insider selling activity. Investors may find opportunity, but should weigh it against potential risks.

For the complete analysis, visit the Nike Inc NKE stock page. You can also explore the GF Value™ page for detailed valuation methodology, or use the GuruFocus Stock Screener to find similar opportunities.

Frequently Asked Questions What is NKE's GF Score™?

NKE has a GF Score™ of 70/100, indicating an above-average rating that suggests potential for long-term returns based on its performance metrics.

Is NKE overvalued or undervalued?

NKE is currently undervalued, with a GF Value™ of $74.93, representing a 40.5% upside potential from its current price.

What is NKE's P/E ratio?

NKE's P/E ratio is currently 21.3x, which is significantly below its 5-year median of 30.9x, indicating that the stock is trading at a discount relative to its historical valuation.

This stock alert was generated using automated technology and GuruFocus financial data to provide readers with timely and accurate market reporting. This content was reviewed by GuruFocus editorial team prior to publication. Please send any questions or comments about this story to [email protected].

Nike (NKE) reported $684 million in outstanding tariff receivables as of May 31, 2026, after already collecting $302 million tied to IEEPA-related import charge

It will take roughly 6,090 shares to earn $10,000 a year in dividends from Nike (NKE 1.31%). This is based on its current quarterly payment of $0.41, or a forward-12-month dividend of $1.64 per share.

Nike's dividend yield is the highest in its history. The company recently raised the quarterly payment by 3%, marking 24 consecutive years of dividend increases.

Image source: The Motley Fool.

But the high yield doesn't come without risks. The stock has fallen 76% from its previous peak due to weaker consumer spending and lower revenue growth.

The weaker revenue isn't the biggest problem for Nike -- it's lower margins. To support continued dividend payments, the company has to pay out more cash than it is taking in. Over the last year, Nike paid out roughly $2.4 billion in dividends but generated just over $1 billion in free cash flow. That's obviously not sustainable in the long run.

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Free cash flow is down partly due to restructuring costs related to turnaround efforts and investment in stores and products. These are largely transitional, so Nike should be able to recover its free cash flow fairly quickly. I wouldn't be too alarmed about the high payout ratio right now.

Nike also has approximately $9 billion in cash and short-term investments on its balance sheet, with $7.9 billion in total debt. More cash than debt is solid, but investors will need to closely follow quarterly earnings reports. Nike needs to show progress in improving margins and boosting free cash flow to cover the dividend payments.

John Ballard has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Nike. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

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Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

As recently as a few years ago, few stocks would have felt safer to buy and hold a decade ago than Nike (NKE +3.72%). It owned its category, carried one of the most recognized brands on earth, and rewarded shareholders with a steadily rising dividend. So here is a figure that should give any long-term investor pause: $10,000 invested in the sportswear giant 10 years ago, with every dividend reinvested, would be worth only about $9,000 as of this writing. You would have less than you started with.

Put that same $10,000 into a simple S&P 500 index fund over the same stretch, and you would be sitting on about $41,700 today -- more than four times your money.

Nike stock has quietly turned into one of the market's more disappointing blue chips. And how that happened says a lot about whether today's beaten-down price near $44 is the opportunity it appears to be.

Image source: Nike.

A lost decade for the stock Today, the stock trades near its 52-week low and has likely burned a lot of investors. Shares recently traded around $44 -- below where they changed hands a decade ago, and down from a 52-week high above $80. Even reinvesting every dividend along the way still wasn't enough to pull the position out of the hole. Over the past 10 years, Nike stock has produced a slightly negative total return with dividends included, while the S&P 500 more than quadrupled the same money.

What makes that so surprising is that the business didn't fall apart the way the stock did -- at least when you look at it from an outsider's perspective. Nike is still one of the largest athletic footwear and apparel companies in the world, and for much of the decade, its revenue and profits climbed.

One issue behind the stock's poor performance was the price investors paid for that growth. Ten years ago, the stock carried a rich valuation multiple -- the premium the market hands a company it assumes will compound for years without missing a step.

But when the misses came, that premium unwound.

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Revenue peaked near $51 billion in fiscal 2024, then fell about 10% to $46.3 billion in fiscal 2025. In fiscal 2026, the year that ended May 31, revenue was essentially flat at $46.4 billion. Greater China, once a dependable growth engine, has been shrinking, and higher-margin direct-to-consumer sales have fallen as well, nudging the profit mix (a bigger share of sales going to lower-margin channels) the wrong way. A business doesn't have to break for its stock to be a poor investment. It just has to disappoint expectations that were set too high.

Is $44 finally cheap enough? So does a decade of underperformance and a price near $44 finally make Nike a value stock worth buying? Not so fast.

On the surface, the stock does look cheap. It trades at about 21 times earnings and yields about 3.7% -- a generous payout from a company that has raised its dividend for 24 straight years. But valuation a second look, as the forward view isn't any cheaper. Indeed, it's worse. Nike's forward price-to-earnings ratio -- its price measured against expected earnings over the next year -- sits at around 25. For a company whose revenue just went flat, paying about 25 times next year's expected earnings is a lot.

Further, the dividend that makes the stock look like an income play takes up about 78% of Nike's reported earnings, leaving little cushion for its 3.7% yield.

All of this shows that even a dominant, dividend-paying household name can be a poor investment if you overpay for it -- and for a decade, that is what Nike was. Today's lower price fixes part of that problem. But not all of it. Personally, I'd want to see revenue actually reaccelerate, and the mix tilt back toward those higher-margin direct sales before I'd treat $44 as a good entry point into the stock.

Key Takeaways NKE's recovery is uneven as running, training and North America improve, but Sportswear and China drag.NIKE Direct revenues fell 7% in Q4 fiscal 2026, with Digital down 12% and owned stores down 7%.Wholesale offers relief, rising 4% in Q4 fiscal 2026 and 6% for the year, led mainly by North America. NIKE, Inc. (NKE - Free Report) is trying to turn a narrower set of operating wins into a broader recovery. The problem is that the gains are still uneven.

Running, global football, training and North America are improving. Sportswear, Jordan Streetwear, NIKE Direct and Greater China continue to pressure demand, pricing and near-term visibility.

NKE Recovery Is Split by CategoryThe clearest progress is coming from performance categories. Running has delivered five consecutive quarters of double-digit growth and added roughly $1 billion over that span. Performance product grew mid-single digits in fiscal 2026, with positive retail sales comparisons across running, training and global football in the fourth quarter.

Management expects growth to expand beyond running into training, basketball and ACG in fiscal 2027. Still, Sportswear and Jordan Streetwear remain weak. Sell-through is challenged, discounting is elevated and future order books are being affected.

NIKE Direct Still Drags on GrowthNIKE Direct remains one of the biggest gaps in the recovery. In the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026, NIKE Direct revenues fell 7% on a reported basis and 9% on a currency-neutral basis to $4.1 billion. NIKE Brand Digital declined 12%, while NIKE-owned stores were down 7%.

The weakness matters because Sportswear and Jordan Streetwear together represent about half of NIKE’s revenues. NIKE is reducing promotions, repositioning digital as a premium business and working to elevate 50% of its owned-store fleet by the end of fiscal 2027. That reset can help brand health, but it also slows the pace of revenue improvement.

NKE Wholesale Rebound Offers Some ReliefWholesale is providing a partial offset. Fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 wholesale revenues rose 4% on a reported basis and 1% on a currency-neutral basis to $6.6 billion, driven mainly by North America. In fiscal 2026, wholesale revenues increased 6% on a reported basis and 4% on a currency-neutral basis.

NIKE is rebuilding partner relationships through curated assortments, better in-store presentation and sport-led storytelling. DICK’S Sporting Goods Inc.’s (DKS - Free Report) Foot Locker is an important marker in that process, as NIKE’s revenue growth and retail sales comparisons as the retailer turned positive for the first time in four years. adidas AG (ADDYY - Free Report) , a major athletic footwear and apparel peer, remains a useful comparison point for investors watching whether NIKE can regain product momentum while protecting brand premium.

NIKE China Reset Clouds Near-Term VisibilityGreater China remains a major overhang. Fourth-quarter revenues in the region fell 12% on a reported basis and 17% on a currency-neutral basis to $1.3 billion. NIKE Direct declined 14%, including a 25% drop in NIKE Digital and a 9% decrease in NIKE stores, while wholesale declined 19%.

In fiscal 2026, Greater China revenues declined 11% on a reported basis and 13% on a currency-neutral basis to $5.85 billion. NIKE has seen digital full-price realization improve and inventory decline by double digits, but management expects near-term revenue trends in the region to remain in line with recent performance.

NKE Signals Point to Ongoing CautionThe bottom line is that NIKE’s recovery has real operational green shoots, but not enough broad-based strength yet. Performance categories and wholesale are improving, while Sportswear, Jordan Streetwear, direct channels and China continue to weigh on the pace of a cleaner rebound.

NKE currently carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). The stock also has a Value Score of D, Growth Score of F, Momentum Score of F and VGM Score of F. Style Scores are designed to complement the Zacks Rank, with stronger grades generally pointing to more favorable value, growth or momentum characteristics.

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

For NIKE, those signals support a cautious stance. A weak Rank reflects pressure in earnings estimate trends, while weak Style Scores suggest limited support from valuation, growth and momentum factors. Until category strength spreads more widely across channels and geographies, the stock outlook remains tied to execution proof rather than early signs of improvement.

Key Takeaways NKE's Sport Offense shifted 8,000 teammates into vertical sport teams to sharpen execution.Running has logged five straight quarters of double-digit growth, while lifestyle remains weak.NKE's margin path is clouded by tariff assumptions, lower markdowns and tighter inventory control. NIKE Inc. (NKE - Free Report) is trying to move past fiscal 2026 with a sport-led model and cleaner marketplace. The reset is not linear.

Performance categories, wholesale repair and North America are improving. Yet tariffs, NIKE Direct weakness and Greater China pressure keep the recovery incomplete.

NKE Sport Offense Is Reshaping ExecutionNIKE’s Sport Offense is central to its next phase. The structure moved about 8,000 teammates into vertical sport teams, creating smaller cross-functional groups focused on specific consumer communities.

The goal is faster decisions, sharper product work and more relevant storytelling across product, brand, marketplace and operations. NIKE is trying to rebuild growth through execution and sport authenticity rather than broad promotions.

Management expects core Win Now actions to sunset by the end of the calendar year. That would shift more emphasis to Sport Offense as the operating model guiding Nike, Jordan and Converse.

NKE Performance Demand Is Beating LifestyleThe clearest trend in NIKE’s portfolio is the split between performance and lifestyle. Running has delivered five consecutive quarters of double-digit growth and added roughly $1 billion over that period.

Performance product grew mid-single digits in fiscal 2026. In fourth-quarter fiscal 2026, running, training and global football posted positive year-over-year retail sales comparisons.

Sportswear and Jordan Streetwear remain the drag. Sell-through is still challenged, affecting discounting and future order books. Together, those businesses represent about half of NIKE’s revenue, which makes their recovery critical.

That split also shapes how investors may compare NIKE with adidas AG (ADDYY - Free Report) and Birkenstock Holding plc (BIRK - Free Report) . adidas remains a relevant global athletic competitor, while Birkenstock gives investors another footwear name to watch within the broader shoes and retail apparel space.

NKE Margin Path Depends on Tariff PressureNIKE’s fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 gross margin expanded 890 basis points to 49.2%. That headline number benefited from a 900-basis-point gain tied to the expected recovery of International Emergency Economic Powers Act tariffs. In fiscal 2026, gross margin expanded 20 basis points to 42.9%.

Excluding that benefit, gross margin would have been 40.2%, down 10 basis points year over year. That makes the margin trend more complicated than the reported figure alone suggests.

Management expects gross margin expansion to begin in the first quarter of fiscal 2027. Still, the outlook assumes incremental tariff rates of 10% through the end of July and 15% thereafter.

Reduced markdowns and better operating leverage also matter. NIKE is lowering digital off-price activity, tightening buys and managing inventory more closely, but tariff volatility remains a cost headwind.

NIKE Channel Mix Is Shifting AgainNIKE’s channel strategy is moving back toward a more balanced marketplace. Wholesale revenues grew 6% on a reported basis and 4% on a currency-neutral basis in fiscal 2026.

In fourth-quarter fiscal 2026, wholesale revenues rose 4% reported and 1% currency neutral, led by North America. Revenue growth and retail sales comparisons with Foot Locker turned positive for the first time in four years.

NIKE Direct remains under pressure. NIKE Direct revenues in fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 declined 7% reported and 9% currency neutral, including a 12% drop in NIKE Brand Digital and a 7% decline in owned stores.

The company is reducing promotions and trying to restore a premium experience across digital and physical retail. A healthier wholesale-direct mix could improve demand visibility, but only if Direct stops weakening.

NKE Scorecard Shows Trend Risks Remain HighNIKE’s emerging trends are meaningful, but the investment scorecard still points to caution. The company has visible progress in running, global football, training, wholesale execution and North America, yet the recovery is not broad enough.

Greater China remains in reset mode. Fiscal fourth-quarter revenues in the region declined 12% reported and 17% currency neutral, with NIKE Direct, digital and wholesale all lower.

NKE currently carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). The stock also has a Value Score of D, Growth Score of F, Momentum Score of F and VGM Score of F.

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

The Zacks Rank emphasizes earnings estimate revision trends, while the Style Scores help assess value, growth and momentum characteristics. This combination does not erase NIKE’s strategic progress, but it suggests the stock still lacks the near-term support investors typically seek before treating a turnaround as investable.

Todd Sohn je hlavní technický analytik ve společnosti Strategas, který v rozhovoru se Stevem Eismanem hovořil o svém pohledu na současné a budoucí dění na trzích. Grafy podle něj rychle a přehledně vypráví o tom, co se děje. Nyní je podle něj zřejmé, že trhem hýbou hlavně polovodiče. K softwaru čekal, že to nejhorší může být už za tímto sektorem. Sektor ale stále působí chaoticky a stále nemusí být v bodě, kdy představuje dobrou nákupní příležitost.

Eisman následně odpovídal na dotaz týkající se akcie GE Vernova, kterou on sám podle svých slov vlastní již dlouhou dobu a je jeho oblíbená. Sohn k ní řekl, že kdyby viděl graf s vývojem ceny bez toho, aby věděl, o jakou společnost jde, viděl by v něm možnou blížící se příležitost k nákupu. Před časem byla totiž akcie překoupená, od té doby došlo ke konsolidaci a vybírání zisků. „V tuhle chvíli graf vypadá dobře.“ Svou roli ale hrají i jiné faktory, třeba výrazný list popularity bot společnosti Hoka, která se opírá i o to, že je doporučují pediatři.

Nike čelí problémům už delší dobu a „jde o velkou loď, u které se kurz nemění tak rychle. Konkurence je navíc intenzivní a nespí včetně zmíněné Hoky či New Balance. „Nike se vzdala určitého prostoru na regálech a nová konkurence jej okamžitě zabrala.“

K Amazonu Eisman řekl, že tuto akcii vlastní, ale graf její ceny podle něj nevypadá moc dobře. Sohn dodal, že jsou jak mnohem horší, tak i mnohem lepší, tenhle je někde uprostřed. Meta je „mnohem chaotičtější“, Sohn byl podle svých slov k této akcii za posledních deset let často skeptický, ale vždy se vzchopila. Nyní by proti ní hovořilo mimo jiné to, že zatímco celý trh dosahuje na nová maxima, Metě se to už nějakou dobu nepodařilo. K tomu plovoucí dvousetdenní průměr neroste (tak jako třeba u zmíněné GEV). A nyní dokonce obrací dolů.

Oracle vidí expert podobně jako software. Může se odrážet od dna, ale „na trhu je hodně lepších příležitostí“. Microsoft je „v podobné pozici jako meta, ne-li slabší.“ Jiným příběhem je Google. Ten byl hodně překoupený, nyní dochází k vybírání zisků a je šance, že „bude kupovatelný“.

Sohn následně hovořil o boomu zapáčených ETF, které poskytují znásobené zisky na akciích, ale to samé platí o ztrátách. Populární jsou také tématické ETF, které se zaměřují na konkrétní oblasti a příběhy včetně „vesmíru“. U finančních titulů nyní podle experta panuje hodně skepse, která z velké části pramení z negativních zpráv týkajících se úvěrů poskytovaných mimo trhy. Sohn ale tuto skepsi k financím vidí jako možný býčí signál dalšího vývoje. Chuť na sektory zdravotní péče „po krátkém trvání zase vyprchala“ a jde po delší dobu o „ten nejvíce frustrující sektor“. Jeho podíl na celkové kapitalizaci trhu postupně znatelně klesl a „situace je tak špatná, že lze uvažovat o tom, že už je dobrá.“ Tedy že také dojde k obratu a „normalizaci“.

Sohn rovněž tvrdí, že „kvalita jen zabírá místo v investičních portfoliích“. Nyní jsou totiž ve skupině kvalitních akcií a firem zejména ty technologické, což znamená, že kvalita vůbec nepůsobí jako něco, co by mělo diverzifikovat rizika. ETF zaměřující se na tuto oblast naopak vykazují vysokou korelaci s pohybem celého trhu. „Proč bych to potřeboval, když to dělá to samé jako celý trh? To si můžu rovnou koupit index.“

Nike (NKE 1.70%) has been struggling in recent years to grow its business, but there's no denying the brand remains highly recognizable and is iconic in the athletic world. And when a company has strong assets to work with, there's the potential for a turnaround effort to be successful and pay off.

The apparel company remains in the midst of a turnaround, and with it beating expectations in its most recent quarterly results, there may be a glimmer of hope that the business is on the right track. Is Nike's stock worth buying right now?

Image source: Getty Images.

Nike beat expectations, but the results remain underwhelming On June 30, Nike reported its fourth-quarter results for the period ending May 31. While revenue for the period totaled $10.97 billion and beat analyst expectations of $10.86 billion, that still represented a year-over-year decline of 1%, reflecting a low bar for the company. Nike benefited from tariff refunds during the quarter, which enabled its bottom line to jump from $211 million a year ago to nearly $1.1 billion for the most recent period. Even on an adjusted basis, however, the company's per-share profit of 20 cents was better than expectations of 13 cents.

The earnings results have given the apparel stock a bit of a boost, but CEO Elliott Hill, who took over nearly two years ago, admits that the company still faces challenges in its turnaround effort, particularly in Greater China, where sales declined by 12%. "We know we're not living up to our full potential."

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Should investors trust the process and buy Nike's stock on weakness? If Hill successfully turns the business around and gets Nike back to growth, that would likely result in significant gains for the beaten-down stock, which has fallen more than 70% over the past five years. But with there being little, if any, real progress to show since Hill took over, it's clear there are significant challenges for the company and questions about its future.

The stock may appear cheap, but not when measured by future earnings projections; it's trading at a forward price-to-earnings multiple of 23, based on analysts' expectations for the year ahead. That's not low at all, given the uncertainty with Nike's stock right now. There's still a ton of risk here, and Nike's stock may only be suitable for investors who are comfortable with that and who are willing to potentially hang on for years, in the hopes that the turnaround will be successful, which is by no means a sure thing.

Key Takeaways NKE's wholesale revenues rose 4% in Q4 fiscal 2026, led by strength in North America.NIKE is rebuilding wholesale partnerships while reducing inventory and promotional activity. NKE's Win Now strategy is strengthening product innovation, brand engagement and marketplace execution. NIKE, Inc. (NKE - Free Report) has been making efforts to drive growth at its wholesale segment. The company is rebuilding its wholesale partnerships by expanding its reach across retail channels and enhancing its presence in the marketplace. It is also making significant investments in its physical retail network, refreshing more than 15,000 wholesale locations worldwide to improve product presentation and the overall consumer shopping experience.

NIKE is streamlining inventory, reducing promotional activity and investing in its wholesale network to create a healthier and more profitable distribution channel. While challenges persist in categories such as Sportswear and Jordan, as well as in markets like Greater China, the improving wholesale performance suggests that NIKE is making meaningful progress toward restoring growth. NIKE continues to remain under pressure in Greater China as it restructures its inventory and marketplace.

Hence, the company’s wholesale business is currently showing encouraging signs, with the segment’s revenues increasing 4% on a reported basis and 1% on a currency-neutral basis to $6.6 billion in fourth-quarter fiscal 2026. Wholesale trends improved, helping offset weakness in NIKE Direct. Growth was mainly driven by North America, partly offset by lower revenues in Greater China. For the fiscal year, wholesale revenues grew 4%, led by double-digit growth in North America.

Healthy demand for its performance-focused products and improving marketplace conditions have been driving results. Key partners are showing better performance. Management highlighted that sales and retail sell-through at Foot Locker turned positive for the first time in four years, suggesting stronger consumer demand and healthier inventory at retail partners.

The company continues to execute its "Win Now" turnaround strategy, which focuses on strengthening culture, accelerating product innovation, reinforcing brand strength and enhancing consumer engagement.  NIKE is actively reducing excess inventory, scaling back promotional activity and optimizing shipments to better match product supply with consumer demand, helping create a healthier marketplace while supporting long-term profitability.

NKE’s Competitionlululemon athletica inc. (LULU - Free Report) continues to benefit from the progress with its Power of Three X2 growth strategy. LULU remains focused on its long-term growth strategy, which centers on continuous product innovation, enhancing the guest experience and expanding its international presence to drive sustainable growth. lululemon is experiencing robust international momentum, with China and other global markets driving faster growth.

adidas AG (ADDYY - Free Report) is focused on strengthening its brand appeal through continuous product innovation, operational excellence and strategic growth initiatives. ADDYY remains committed to enhancing profitability and long-term competitiveness by maintaining inventory discipline, improving operational efficiency and advancing its sustainability efforts. In addition, adidas is expanding its global footprint through localized market strategies, increased digital investments and an ongoing expansion of its retail store network.

NKE’S Price Performance, Valuation and EstimatesShares of NIKE have lost 33.5% in the past six months compared with the industry’s decline of 25.4%.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

From a valuation standpoint, NKE trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 23.72X compared with the industry’s average of 20.73X.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NKE’s fiscal 2027 and fiscal 2028 earnings per share implies year-over-year growth of 13.9% and 32.5%, respectively. The company’s EPS estimate for fiscal 2027 and fiscal 2028 has moved south in the past seven days.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Nike's (NKE +2.39%) iconic global brand is not delivering the steady growth investors are used to. The stock has been in a downward spiral since hitting an all-time high during the COVID-19 pandemic and has fallen another 32% year to date.

The discount has brought the dividend yield up to 3.7%, more than three times the S&P 500 average. Is this yield too good to pass up? Let's first assess Nike's dividend payout health before determining whether this is the smartest dividend stock to buy in 2026.

Image source: The Motley Fool.

Dividend coverage is weakening Nike is still navigating challenging macroeconomic headwinds, including inflation and higher energy prices, which are hurting consumer spending. It reported flat revenue for fiscal 2026, which ended in May, with fourth-quarter revenue down 1% year over year.

The weak top-line growth and investments to turn things around have caused Nike's trailing-12-month free cash flow to plummet 65% year over year to just over $1 billion. This doesn't leave enough room for the dividend. The company paid out nearly $2.4 billion in total dividends to shareholders over the last year.

Nike generated $3.1 billion in net income over the last year. With over $7.5 billion in cash on the balance sheet, the dividend is unlikely to be cut. Still, the elevated payout ratio to free cash flow raises this risk for investors unless there is a material recovery in profitability.

The good news is that management has made progress in tightening inventory to better manage costs. It is prioritizing margins over maximizing near-term revenue growth, with gross margin expected to improve starting this quarter.

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Nike's turnaround will take time Nike sportswear and Jordan streetwear remain weak, and together account for about half of Nike's total revenue. The only bright spot appears to be running, which has delivered five consecutive quarters of double-digit growth.

Management is actively working to reduce discounting to boost margins and adjust its product mix to drive sales growth. Over 150 stores have refreshed their inventory with performance-based products, which are seeing stronger demand than lifestyle products. Nike is also introducing a dozen new footwear styles later this year. However, management expects these efforts to take time to generate consistent results.

The turnaround is progressing, but probably not as quickly as Wall Street anticipated. Management is confident in its actions to improve margins. Still, the elevated dividend payout to free cash flow doesn't make the stock the safest choice for income investors.

I wouldn't call Nike the "smartest" dividend stock to buy right now. There are more durable consumer brands, such as Coca-Cola, that offer high yields but don't carry the execution risk associated with a major turnaround effort. Investors who buy Nike shares will need to closely monitor its quarterly earnings to ensure the company is on track to recover margins and free cash flow, which is crucial for sustaining and growing the dividend.

Nike (NKE +2.44%) shareholders have been suffering over the past few years as the company has dealt with problem after problem.

There were some glimmers of hope in the fiscal 2026 fourth-quarter (ended May 31) report released this past week, but management cut near-term guidance and doesn't expect meaningful progress over the next six months. So why is Nike stock rising?

Image source: Nike.

Getting its game on Nike is still picking up the pieces from some major missteps, compounded over the past few years by high inflation and strong tariff exposure. The company was poorly positioned to handle the challenges when it cut out wholesale partnerships and let its innovation engine slip.

In its favor, it got a new CEO and mapped out a turnaround plan, and while external factors are still weighing on its progress, appears to have stemmed the rapid declines.

Here are some of the fourth-quarter highlights, which beat the top and bottom lines:

Revenue decreased 1% year over year, with wholesale up 4% and direct-to-consumer down 7%. Gross margin expanded 8.9 percentage points to 49.2%. Earnings per share (EPS) increased from $0.14 last year to $0.72 this year. While momentum had been building into the quarter, it stalled when the Iran war began and oil prices spiked, putting pressure on global consumers. Although that's been easing, management had to reshuffle orders and block too much inventory that could eventually pile up and have to be marked down for sale. Over the next six months, sluggish sales are expected.

Going on the offense One particular area where Nike is truly struggling is China, where sales dropped 17% for the full year. CEO Elliott Hill said Nike is doing a "comprehensive reset" in the region, going on the offense and working with local partners to see how it can win.

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But there were many positive updates. Performance sales were up mid-single digits for the full year, which marked the fifth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth in Nike Running.

Although China is struggling, North America is showing signs of recovery, and the wholesale business grew by double digits for the full year. So while the near term looks bleak, the recovery is possible.

In the meantime, Nike stock has fallen low enough to look like a strong value. It tanked after earnings, and its P/E ratio dipped below 20. At the current price, its dividend yields 3.8%. Value investors may have seen the opportunity, and long-term investors might be counting on a big recovery later this year.

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, /PRNewswire/ -- Halper Sadeh LLC, an investor rights law firm, is investigating whether certain officers and directors of NIKE, Inc. (NYSE: NKE) breached their fiduciary duties to shareholders.

If you currently own NIKE stock and are a long-term shareholder, you may be able to seek corporate governance reforms, the return of funds back to the company, a court-approved financial incentive award, or other relief and benefits. Please click here to learn more about your legal rights and options or contact Daniel Sadeh or Zachary Halper at (212) 763-0060 or [email protected] or [email protected].

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“When we lead with sport, we win,” Nike CEO Elliott Hill said. SANTA MONICA, CALIFORNIA - JUNE 10: A pedestrian walks by a display of international soccer player photos outside of a Nike store on June 10, 2026 in Santa Monica, California. Retailers and restaurants are getting ready for the World Cup, which begins on June 11 and runs through July 19. (Photo by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)

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Nike just delivered a sobering fiscal 2026 earnings report, underscoring how difficult it is for a market leader to play catch-up in a category it once defined. While the company still expects headwinds through the first two quarters of fiscal 2027, it sees momentum building—led by outstanding performance around the World Cup, including over 1.5 billion views of the “Rip the Script” video during the first week of play. World Cup tailwinds haven’t yet shown up in the latest quarter, which ended May 31.

Now with a challenging fourth quarter and full year behind it, Nike is going on offense. “We’re not building this business for the next quarter or the next year. We’re building it for the decade to come,” CEO Elliott Hill said in the earnings call.

Nike will realize that goal through the Sport Offense strategy: a new corporate structure built around cross-functional teams organized by sport. Essentially, Sport Offense puts sports culture—the distinct identity, passion and performance expectations of each sport—back to the center of everything “Nike,” reversing its product-centric approach of recent years. Sport Offense marks a return to the sport-led model that originally made Nike great. “When we lead with sport, we win,” Hill said.

Early Innings Of Nike’s TurnaroundWhile the full year revenues beat Wall Street expectations—coming in flat at $46.4 billion (down 2% constant currency)—the fourth quarter was down 1% reported (-4% currency neutral) to $11 billion. A 3% uptick in North America to $4.8 billion couldn’t overcome a staggering 17% constant-currency decline in China to $1.3 billion and a 6% drop to $3 billion in EMEA.

A similar mixed picture runs throughout the latest earnings report. Quarterly net income jumped from $211 million last year to $1.1 billion this year, thanks to a one-time $986 million tariff refund. For the full year, net income fell 3% to $3.1 billion, and earnings per share were down 3%.

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Year-end Nike Brand revenues increased 1% to $45.2 billion (-1% constant-currency), Converse brand continued to be a drag, down 31% to $1.2 billion. Hill said the Converse brand strategy was being “sharpened” around the Chuck Taylor and Jack Purcell lines. Basketball star Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, previously with Converse, has now moved over to the Nike Basketball lineup.

Distribution was uneven too. Wholesale, accounting for nearly 60% of revenues in 2025, rose 6% for the year (+4% constant currency), while Nike Direct revenues dropped 6% (-8% constant currency) with digital sales down 12% and Nike-owned stores off 4%.

A return to growth at Foot Locker was the quarter’s wholesale highlight. For the first time in four years, Foot Locker posted positive revenue growth and retail sales comps.

On the plus side, Nike is mending fences with independent retail partners, key influencers in the sporting goods sector. But the shortfall in Nike Direct indicates some brand weakness. It is taking steps to correct that by elevating the customer experience in-store with a focus on “celebrating sports moments.”

Some 150 stores have gotten the “sports-led experience” makeover to date and Nike plans to elevate 50% of its owned store fleet by the end of fiscal 2027. Last year, the company operated 85 in-line Nike stores in the U.S. and 61 internationally. Factory stores make up the bulk of Nike brand’s retail footprint, over 200 in the U.S. and nearly 550 internationally.

Coming up short this quarter was Nike Sportswear, down double-digits, and Jordan Streetwear. Acknowledging the critical need to get both back on track—together they represent about half of company revenues—Hill said, “Our point of differentiation—what creates authenticity for Nike—is our sport business. That creates the halo over both of those brands and what differentiates us from fashion brands.”

During his remarks, Hill pointed to Serena Williams wearing the Radical Air sneaker on the Wimbledon court. The innovation in that sneaker will start to show up in Sportswear soon.

That’s the halo the Sport Offense is designed to create: sport-born authenticity that lifts every brand across the portfolio and every customer touchpoint.

On OffenseAgainst a backdrop where its more lifestyle-oriented sportswear and streetwear ranges flagged, sports performance offerings got a lift. “Our renewed obsession with sport and the success of our athletes is fueling energy for our brands and building momentum in our performance business, which grew mid-single digits this fiscal year,” Hill reported.

Running was the first sport to get the Sport Offense makeover and the results are showing: Nike running delivered five consecutive quarters of double-digit growth and added about $1 billion to its running business. Hill also added that across Europe and North America, Nike footwear gained 5 points of running market share— more than any other top-five brand. He didn’t name names, but Adidas, Asics, New Balance and Puma are chief competitors in the category.

Training, basketball, all-conditions gear are also being realigned around the Sport Offense strategy, but key at the moment is global football, where Adidas is giving it a run for its money. Brand Adidas sales were up 13% constant currency in fiscal 2025 and advanced 14% through first quarter ending March 31. Adidas is also the only sportswear global partner with FIFA, and is dressing 14 teams in the World Cup, compared to Nike’s 12.

World Cup Forward MomentumHill pointed to global football as the best example of how the Sport Offense is playing out. “We’re not treating the tournament as a single moment. We’re using it to reshape our business, telling a connected story over time, engaging different communities in relevant ways and building momentum that carries well beyond the tournament.”

Pivotal to its World Cup moment—and long-term global football strategy—is the storytelling embedded in the six-minute “Rip the Script” long-form video and its numerous short-segment spin-offs.

In a Business of Fashion podcast, Helena Thornton, vice president of Nike brand management, shared, “We live in an attention-deficit culture, don’t we? You’ve got three seconds to catch somebody’s attention, and we said, as a team, if the story is good enough, people will want to watch it.”

With over 1.5 billion views, “Rip the Script” has massively broken through, with Thornton noting that many people are staying around for the whole thing—not to mention those who come back to catch the Easter eggs liberally stashed along the way. “It’s so easy in today’s world to get lost in all of the data and all of the analytics, but if your story is good enough, people are captivated,” she continued.

Nike is counting on World Cup fever to carry on, even if the company hasn’t factored it into its muted guidance for the first half of fiscal 2027. To date, it’s racked up a number of wins:

Nike has sold 2.5 times as many national team kits as in the same period before the 2022 World Cup. The Aero-Fit sports apparel line, designed to help athletes compete in extreme conditions, has accelerated demand. The Mercurial boot became Nike’s fastest-selling cleated footwear launch in the history of Nike Direct.More than 5,000 football retail doors globally have been elevated around the World Cup. The World Cup “halo” is expected to drive high-single-digit demand growth in the first quarter, a company spokesperson shared with me.Significantly, Nike is replacing Adidas as Germany’s national team kit partner next year—a real blow for Adidas on its home turf.

Sport Offense Puts The Swoosh Back In NikeJefferies analyst Randal Konik believes that Nike bottomed out in the fourth quarter and is stabilizing. Yet he asserted, “Nike’s fiscal fourth quarter results confrm that the right strategies are in place under CEO Hill and are proving themselves out,” pointing to improved margins, disciplined cost management in place, stable inventories and performance growing mid-single-digits.

“The real signal for us is North America—that geography grew 3% and wholesale was up 10%,” he continued. “Getting wholesale back was a central piece of our upgrade thesis, and now it’s actually happening.”

While Konik offers a largely positive read of the latest results, GlobalData’s Neil Saunders is more measured. “There is no doubt that Nike has been trying to aim higher and run faster. Despite these efforts, it has still ended its fiscal year with a whimper rather than going out with a bang,” and he added, “Full recovery remains elusive and a long way off.”

CEO Hill shares Saunder’s frustration. “Overall, the results aren’t there yet. We know we are not living up to our full potential.” However, he feels the renewed energy among his team and momentum growing underneath the latest numbers—and those still to come.

“I see the progress. I see the structural change. I see the foundation getting stronger. I see the Sport Offense taking hold. I see a team that’s been tested and is ready for what’s in front of us,” he concluded. “The goal isn’t one championship. It’s to build a team that can do it again and again.”

See Also:

ForbesAdidas Leans Into Soccer While Nike Chases Culture In World Cup Marketing ShowdownBy Pamela N. Danziger

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After a punishing year for shareholders, Nike (NYSE:NKE | NKE Price Prediction) finally looks interesting again. Shares closed at $41.05 on June 30, 2026, sitting a hair above the 52-week low of $40. Our 24/7 Wall St. price target for Nike is $51.21, implying 24.76% upside over the next 12 months. Our recommendation is buy with a 90% confidence level.

24/7 Wall St. Price Target Summary Metric Value Current Price $41.05 24/7 Wall St. Price Target $51.21 Upside 24.76% Recommendation BUY Confidence Level 90% A Brutal Year, Then a Tariff Windfall Nike has been one of the worst large-cap stories of the past 12 months. Shares are down 40.62% over one year, 34.56% year to date, and 10.41% in the past month alone. The stock peaked near $76.97 in August 2025 before declining to the current $41 level.

The June 30, 2026 Q1 FY27 report offered a rare bright spot. Revenue landed at $10.97B against a $10.85B consensus, and diluted EPS came in at $0.72 against a $0.1273 estimate. That marked the seventh consecutive EPS beat, though the number was inflated by a $986 million one-time IEEPA tariff recovery.

Underneath the headline, Greater China revenue fell 12%, Converse tumbled 32%, and NIKE Direct was down 7%. CEO Elliott Hill has been buying shares on the open market.

The Case for $65 and Higher Bulls have real ammunition. Elliott Hill’s “Win Now” strategy is showing early wins in wholesale, which grew 4% in Q1 FY27, and North America revenue rose 3%. Gross margin hit 49.2% in the latest quarter, and cost discipline is showing. Nike also has an $18 billion four-year buyback authorization and just extended a 24-year dividend growth streak.

Our bull case scenario points to $65.78 by July 2027, a 60.24% return. If Greater China stabilizes, Converse finds a floor, and the David Denton CFO transition reinforces margin discipline, that number looks achievable.

What Could Go Wrong The bear case is well-telegraphed. KeyBanc’s Ashley Owens flagged slower-than-expected sportswear recovery and disruptor brand pressure. Technical analysts point to a $35 downside target if support breaks. Our bear case still puts the stock at $46.65 in a year, reflecting how much bad news is already priced in.

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Skeptics note that the Q1 FY27 EPS blowout was largely a tariff refund. Underlying revenue still fell 1.13%, and NIKE Direct weakness suggests brand momentum has faded. Bulls would argue the wholesale rebalancing was intentional and that near-term margin pain funds a healthier long-term marketplace.

Nike Price Prediction 2026-2030 Our 24/7 Wall St. price target of $51.21 and buy rating reflect a straightforward setup: sentiment is washed out, the balance sheet is fortress-grade, and management is buying shares personally.

The bull thesis rests on Hill’s turnaround gaining traction in North America wholesale over the next two quarters. The thesis weakens materially if Greater China revenue declines accelerate past 15%. With 90% model confidence and the stock trading a dollar off its 52-week low, the risk/reward favors patient buyers.

Looking ahead, here is where our model projects Nike could trade, assuming Win Now execution progresses and margins normalize toward historical averages.

Year 24/7 Wall St. Price Target 2026 $51.21 2027 $58.00 2028 $64.50 2029 $71.00 2030 $78.84 These projections assume Nike continues executing on Win Now and Greater China stabilizes by fiscal 2028. Significant upside or downside could result from tariff policy shifts and disruptor brand competition.

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Key Takeaways NKE beat Q4 EPS and revenue estimates, supported by North America recovery and stronger wholesale sales. NIKE saw North America revenues rise 3%, wholesale revenues up 4% despite weaker Greater China demand.NKE is executing its Win Now action via innovation, wholesale partnerships and sport-led retail experiences. NIKE, Inc. (NKE - Free Report) reported better-than-expected fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 results, with both earnings per share (EPS) and revenues exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate. The company’s EPS of 20 cents increased 42.9% year over year and beat the consensus estimate of 11 cents.

However, NKE’s consolidated revenues dipped 1% year over year to $10.97 billion but came above the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $10.85 billion. Results were driven by wholesale growth and increased revenues in North America. Also, gains from the expected recovery of tariffs further supported performance. (Read More: NIKE Q4 Earnings Beat Estimates, North America Revenues Up 3%).

We note that NKE’s shares have risen 4.9% yesterday, after reporting fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 results on June 30, 2026. Shares of the Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) company have lost 2.6% in the past six months compared with the industry’s decline of 3.2%.

North America Recovery & Wholesale Growth Aided NKENorth America revenues rose 3% year over year to $4.83 billion. This slightly missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4.85 billion. Within the segment, footwear sales increased 4% to $3.23 billion and apparel sales rose 1% to $1.31 billion. Both categories have outperformed the consensus mark of $3.21 billion and $1.30 billion, respectively. The segment’s earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) surged a whopping 91% to $2 billion, also exceeding the consensus mark of $348 million. The company’s North America region is showing signs of recovery with growth in running, global football and basketball categories, and gains from “Win Now” actions.

APLA revenues increased 1% on a reported basis to $1.60 billion, outperforming the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.56 billion. Footwear remained flat at $1.1 billion, up from $1.08 billion and apparel rose 6% to $420 million, up from the consensus estimate of $404 million. The segment’s earnings before interest and taxes came in at $316 million, up from the consensus estimate of $104 million.

Wholesale revenues increased 4% on a reported basis and 1% on a currency-neutral basis to $6.6 billion, up from the consensus estimate of $6.5 billion. Growth was mainly driven by North America, partly offset by lower revenues in Greater China. The company continued rebuilding relationships with wholesale partners, emphasizing direct-to-consumer sales. Wholesale trends improved, helping offset weakness in NIKE Direct. NIKE Direct revenues declined 7% on a reported basis and 9% on a currency-neutral basis to $4.1 billion. The drop was due to a 12% decline in NIKE Brand Digital and a 7% fall in NIKE-owned stores.

Some Segments Remain Soft in Q4NIKE continues to remain under pressure in Greater China as it restructures inventory and its marketplace. Greater China revenues were down 12% on a reported basis and 17% on a currency-neutral basis to $1.30 billion. Nevertheless, the segment outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.21 billion. Footwear fell 13% to $938 million, apparel declined 10% to $334 million and equipment dropped 17% to $25 million.

EMEA revenues fell 1% on a reported basis and 6% on a currency-neutral basis to $2.98 billion, almost in line with the consensus estimate. Footwear declined 4% to $1.82 billion, while apparel rose 6% to $982 million and equipment dropped 3% to $172 million.

Converse revenues dropped 32% on a reported basis and 34% on a currency-neutral basis to $244 million due to decreases in all territories. This lagged the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $261 million.

NKE’s Outlook and Key PrioritiesManagement indicated that the operating environment remains volatile, citing evolving tariff policies, Middle East disruption, oil prices, operating costs, consumer behavior and weaker store traffic and retail sales. For the first quarter of fiscal 2027, NIKE expects reported revenues to decline in the low to mid-single digits. Meanwhile, the fiscal second quarter is expected to further decline sequentially compared with the first quarter. The gross margin is expected to be slightly positive in the fiscal first quarter. The forecast assumes incremental tariff rates of 10% through the end of July and 15% thereafter. SG&A dollars are expected to be flat in the fiscal first quarter.

Although the company’s outlook is not encouraging, NIKE is taking actions to improve EBIT margins and increase cash flow from operations. The company continues to execute its "Win Now" turnaround strategy, which focuses on strengthening culture, accelerating product innovation, reinforcing brand strength and enhancing consumer engagement.

NIKE is expanding its pipeline of innovative footwear and apparel across performance categories, while introducing new Sportswear styles and leveraging performance technologies across multiple product lines. Such efforts are expected to support NIKE's growth trajectory.

Key Picks in the Consumer Discretionary Space Columbia Sportswear Company (COLM - Free Report) , which engages in the sourcing, marketing and distribution of outdoor and active lifestyle apparel, footwear, accessories and equipment, currently sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

COLM delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 44.1%, on average. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Columbia Sportswear’s current financial-year sales indicates growth of 2.6% from the year-ago number.

Duluth Holdings Inc. (DLTH - Free Report) , which deals in casual wear, workwear and accessories for men and women, currently sports a Zacks Rank of 1.

Duluth Holdings delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 107.5%, on average. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for DLTH’s current financial-year EPS indicates a rise of 39.5% from the year-ago number.

Ralph Lauren Corporation (RL - Free Report) , which is a leading major designer, marketer and distributor of premium lifestyle products, currently carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). RL delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 9.1%, on average.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Ralph Lauren’s current financial-year EPS indicates a rise of 10.5% from the year-ago number.

NKE trades near its 52-week low as Greater China weakness, margin pressure, soft digital demand and premium valuation cloud its recovery outlook.

Nike (NYSE: NKE) delivered another middling quarter on Tuesday afternoon, but investors had a surprising response.

After the stock fell as much as double digits after hours on Tuesday, Nike rallied to finish the regular session on Wednesday up 4.9%.

Is the company's long-awaited turnaround finally materializing? Let's take a closer look at the quarterly update.

Image source: The Motley Fool.

What we learned from Nike's Q4 Nike's revenue was down 1%, or 4% on a currency-neutral basis, to $11 billion, which was slightly ahead of estimates at $10.85 billion.

The company received a one-time windfall of $986 million from the reversal of some tariffs. Excluding that, gross margin was down 10 basis points to 40.2%, which shows the key metric stabilizing after several quarters of steep declines, though tariffs were the primary reason for lower gross margins. Selling, general, and administrative expenses fell 2% to $4.08 billion as it scaled back on advertising spending, and excluding the tariff-related benefit, earnings per share was $0.20, up from $0.14, marking its first quarter of EPS growth in two years.

Looking ahead, Nike once again offered cautious guidance, citing a volatile macro environment, and said it did not expect conditions to improve over the next six months. The company continues to see flat earnings over the next two quarters, though it's dialing down its revenue forecast and raising its gross margin guidance. For the first quarter, it forecast a low-to-mid-single-digit decline in revenue.

However, Nike is seeing some green shoots as it works to restore the brand to health. Comparable sales and revenue at Foot Locker, long a key partner for Nike, was positive for the first time in four years, showing that its efforts to repair relationships with its wholesale partners are paying off. Wholesale revenue was up 10% in the quarter in North America, while Nike Direct was down 6%.

It also reported its fifth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth in running, one of its biggest categories, showing it has successfully responded to competition from upstart brands like Deckers' Hoka and On Holding.

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The stock rose in regular trading on Wednesday as investors seemed to bet the bottom was finally in on the stock. There are clearly some positive signs as gross margin is finally stabilizing and set to return to growth.

However, fiscal 2027 looks set to be another year of basically flat EPS growth, unless the macro environment dramatically changes in the second half of its fiscal year, and that seems like a missed opportunity for Nike.

With the New York Knicks winning the NBA Finals and driving the highest ratings for a Finals in a generation, and the U.S. hosting the World Cup, sports in the last month have been about as buzzworthy as they get. Against that backdrop, however, Nike's ad spend declined in the fourth quarter, which closed at the end of May. The company expects "demand creation expense" to increase in high single digits as it invests in the World Cup, but the revenue guidance shows it's not expecting any kind of boost from the event.

The bar for Nike's turnaround seems to be getting lower. This was once a company that frequently delivered double-digit revenue growth, but it hasn't done that in three years now.

After falling more than 75%, the stock seems to be near the bottom, but until the company puts up meaningful revenue growth or at least forecasts it, it's not a buy. There are better opportunities elsewhere in the market.

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NIKE (NKE +5.05%), a global athletic footwear and apparel designer, marketer, and seller, closed at $43.14, up 5.09%. The stock rose after premarket results beat estimates, though investors are watching tariff-related profit support and a cautious revenue outlook. Trading volume reached 74.5M shares, coming in about 181% above its three-month average of 26.5M shares.

How the markets moved todayS&P 500 (^GSPC 0.22%) closed at 7,485, down 0.19%, while the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC 0.66%) finished at 26,040, down 0.66%. Among footwear and apparel retail, focused on athletic and sportswear products peers, Adidas closed at $102.83, up 0.25%, and Under Armour closed at $6.59, up 3.13%, as investors weighed brand demand and a 2026 FIFA World Cup backdrop.

What this means for investorsWhile Nike’s revenue dipped 1% and the company delivered an otherwise mixed earnings report, the stock rose higher today. I think this reaction has more to do with Nike’s stock being down 73% over the last five years than anything incredible highlighted in Q4.

That said, Nike running shoes grew sales by double digits for five straight quarters, the company’s wholesale operations in North America also grew by double digits, and inventory remained flat. Said another way, Nike’s “core” is improving.

However, sales in China dropped 17%, underscoring the country’s ongoing weakness. Meanwhile, Converse sales also dropped by 32%, adding to the company’s struggles.

With management guiding for a low-to-mid single-digit sales decline in the first half of fiscal 2027, I’d rather just wait and see with Nike stock, rather than try to time the bottom perfectly. This has been a multi-year “turnaround,” and I’d rather see some tangible improvement before considering an investment at this point, despite the company showing a few signs of progress in Q4.