Nike (NKE +2.10%) may be the biggest and most well-known athletic wear company in the world, but its stock has plummeted over the past few years. It made a series of missteps that led to declining sales and losing some of its cachet, and it's still struggling to get back to dominance.
The stock is a crushing 79% off its all-time high, but it's up 17% from its 52-week low. Is the turnaround finally gaining steam? And, more importantly for investors, is now the time to buy?
Can Nike just do it?
Nike has been dealing with declining revenue for more than two years now, with some bright pockets. That's a long stretch for what's supposed to be the industry leader.
Image source: Nike.
In the most recent quarter, the fiscal 2027 first quarter (ended Aug. 31), sales were down 4% from last year, but that's less than some of its earlier quarters. Gross margin, which had been narrowing, expanded 0.6 points to 42.8%. Earnings per share (EPS) were $0.48, down from $0.49 last year, but higher than the $0.44 expected by Wall Street. The market liked the report, and the stock has been climbing ever since.
There's a long road ahead, but there have been many signs of progress. Running was up double digits in the first quarter, as was the U.S. basketball business, and global football ( soccer). Nike had fallen behind in its sport lines, and it's making its way back.
Some of Nike's problems stemmed from a lack of innovation in sportswear, and it's committed to restarting that engine, creating newness more frequently. Two of its running-inspired sportswear shoes, the P-6000 and the V5 Runner, grew by double digits in the quarter, and its newly launched Studio Fleece line was its best-performing apparel line. CEO Elliott Hill attributed the success to clarity, meaning determining each target clientele's specific needs and serving them.
Big problems remain
Hill said that Nike is going to shrink some of its largest franchises, like the Jordan brand, which is oversupplied and doesn't feel premium anymore. That is likely to lead to sales declines in these franchises in the beginning, before stabilizing, and that could be a drag on short-term growth.
But there are bigger problems that remain, notably China, which is one of its biggest and most important markets. Sales have been dropping precipitously in the region and fell 26% year over year in the first quarter. There is stiff competition from local brands, and Nike is aiming to clean up the business by tightening control over distribution to heighten the premium brand. It's stopping distribution through third-party online sellers, and it's developing lines to cater to the Chinese consumers.
NKE Nike$38.32+$0.79 (+2.10%)
NYSE · As of 4:00 PM ET 10/22/26
However, that sounds strangely similar to some of the moves that brought it to this moment in the first place; under previous leadership, it curtailed relationships with wholesale partners and focused on its own direct-to-consumer channels, and customers found other brands, like On Holding and Berkshire Hathaway's Brooks at retailers instead. Will it have different results in China? Only time will tell.
Risks vs. reward
At the current price, Nike stock trades at a P/E ratio of 18, near its lowest level in 10 years. However, there's good reason for that. At this price, though, its dividend yields 4.3%, which is excellent for passive income investors.
Management is still projecting a high single-digit decline in fiscal 2027, so there isn't much to be hopeful about in the near future. Considering its array of challenges, investors may want to hold off on buying Nike stock, even at this cheap price. I'd wait for more progress, especially on the China business, before saying that this is a bargain.
Společnost Nike získala hodnocení Zacks Rank #5 („silný prodej“) poté, co konsenzuální odhad zisku na akcii pro aktuální fiskální rok za posledních 30 dní klesl o 27 %.
Nike (NKE - Free Report) is one of the stocks most watched by Zacks.com visitors lately. So, it might be a good idea to review some of the factors that might affect the near-term performance of the stock.
Over the past month, shares of this athletic apparel maker have returned +4.1%, compared to the Zacks S&P 500 composite's no change. During this period, the Zacks Shoes and Retail Apparel industry, which Nike falls in, has gained 4%. The key question now is: What could be the stock's future direction?
While media releases or rumors about a substantial change in a company's business prospects usually make its stock 'trending' and lead to an immediate price change, there are always some fundamental facts that eventually dominate the buy-and-hold decision-making.
Revisions to Earnings EstimatesHere at Zacks, we prioritize appraising the change in the projection of a company's future earnings over anything else. That's because we believe the present value of its future stream of earnings is what determines the fair value for its stock.
Our analysis is essentially based on how sell-side analysts covering the stock are revising their earnings estimates to take the latest business trends into account. When earnings estimates for a company go up, the fair value for its stock goes up as well. And when a stock's fair value is higher than its current market price, investors tend to buy the stock, resulting in its price moving upward. Because of this, empirical studies indicate a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and short-term stock price movements.
For the current quarter, Nike is expected to post earnings of $0.36 per share, indicating a change of -32.1% from the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed -30.8% over the last 30 days.
The consensus earnings estimate of $1.25 for the current fiscal year indicates a year-over-year change of -20.9%. This estimate has changed -27% over the last 30 days.
For the next fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of $1.56 indicates a change of +24.8% from what Nike is expected to report a year ago. Over the past month, the estimate has changed -31.8%.
With an impressive externally audited track record, our proprietary stock rating tool -- the Zacks Rank -- is a more conclusive indicator of a stock's near-term price performance, as it effectively harnesses the power of earnings estimate revisions. The size of the recent change in the consensus estimate, along with three other factors related to earnings estimates, has resulted in a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell) for Nike.
The chart below shows the evolution of the company's forward 12-month consensus EPS estimate:
12 Month EPS
Projected Revenue GrowthEven though a company's earnings growth is arguably the best indicator of its financial health, nothing much happens if it cannot raise its revenues. It's almost impossible for a company to grow its earnings without growing its revenue for long periods. Therefore, knowing a company's potential revenue growth is crucial.
In the case of Nike, the consensus sales estimate of $11.22 billion for the current quarter points to a year-over-year change of -9.7%. The $42.75 billion and $43.11 billion estimates for the current and next fiscal years indicate changes of -7.9% and +0.8%, respectively.
Last Reported Results and Surprise HistoryNike reported revenues of $11.21 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of -4.3%. EPS of $0.48 for the same period compares with $0.49 a year ago.
Compared to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $11.4 billion, the reported revenues represent a surprise of -1.65%. The EPS surprise was +11.63%.
The company beat consensus EPS estimates in each of the trailing four quarters. The company topped consensus revenue estimates three times over this period.
ValuationWithout considering a stock's valuation, no investment decision can be efficient. In predicting a stock's future price performance, it's crucial to determine whether its current price correctly reflects the intrinsic value of the underlying business and the company's growth prospects.
While comparing the current values of a company's valuation multiples, such as price-to-earnings (P/E), price-to-sales (P/S), and price-to-cash flow (P/CF), with its own historical values helps determine whether its stock is fairly valued, overvalued, or undervalued, comparing the company relative to its peers on these parameters gives a good sense of the reasonability of the stock's price.
As part of the Zacks Style Scores system, the Zacks Value Style Score (which evaluates both traditional and unconventional valuation metrics) organizes stocks into five groups ranging from A to F (A is better than B; B is better than C; and so on), making it helpful in identifying whether a stock is overvalued, rightly valued, or temporarily undervalued.
Nike is graded F on this front, indicating that it is trading at a premium to its peers. Click here to see the values of some of the valuation metrics that have driven this grade.
ConclusionThe facts discussed here and much other information on Zacks.com might help determine whether or not it's worthwhile paying attention to the market buzz about Nike. However, its Zacks Rank #5 does suggest that it may underperform the broader market in the near term.
Nike vyplácí roční dividendu 1,64 USD na akcii, ale prognózy zisků nebudou na její krytí stačit nejméně do roku 2027, což zvyšuje riziko snížení dividendy.
Nike (NKE -0.92%), one of the blue chip dividend stocks, has raised its dividend for 24 consecutive years. It also has a forward yield of 4.4%, making it a dividend stock with a moderately high yield. That yield may look like an opportunity, but it's more likely a warning sign.
Why? With earnings forecasts unable to cover the dividend until at least 2027, shares remain at high risk of a dividend cut. As low-risk 10-year Treasuries yield over 5% and Nike's turnaround timeline remains highly uncertain, the risk simply isn't worth the payoff for dividend investors for now.
Image source: Getty Images.
What it takes to earn $2,000 in annual dividends from Nike shares
Based on Nike's current quarterly dividend of $0.41 per share, the stock pays $1.64 per share annually. To generate $2,000 in annual dividend income, you would need to own around 1,220 shares. At today's stock price, it would require a $45,445 investment. However, putting that amount of capital to work in Nike shares requires taking current interest rate trends into account.
With the 10-year Treasury yielding around 5.15%, you could generate $2,340 per year, or an additional 17%, from this low-risk alternative. Even as Treasuries lack the long-term upside that stocks typically provide, consider the root cause of Nike steadily moving toward becoming one of the high-yield dividend stocks in the first place.
That would be the stock's 77% price drop over the last five years, coupled with continued dividend raises. Management has prioritized cash payouts, even as numerous headwinds and turnaround challenges continued to hinder the company's fiscal results.
NKE Nike$37.53-$0.35 (-0.92%)
NYSE · As of 4:00 PM ET 10/21/26
Uncertain turnaround prospects call into question making this a buy
For years, issues ranging from growing competition in China to the impact of inflation and tariffs on production costs have affected Nike's operating performance. As dividends kept rising, shares remain at risk of a further dive if management decides to reduce or eliminate it to conserve cash.
Although management remains highly committed to maintaining the dividend, given how it's expected to exceed estimated earnings in both 2026 and 2027, something may have to give. At the very least, the company needs to go from having a few green shoots, such as strengthening North American sales, to stabilizing and improving overall results.
All this said, Nike's management could prove me wrong as soon as November. That's when the company announces dividend increases. If management implements a meaningful increase, it could suggest strong results ahead when Q3 2026 results come out in December. However, if management implements a $0.01-dividend increase to maintain its dividend growth streak while conserving cash, it could be a warning sign of more trouble ahead.
Moreover, if you are approaching Nike as one of the dividend stocks to buy and hold, I would at least wait until the December earnings report. Even if shares rise in response to improved results, much of the underlying uncertainty will have cleared by then.
At the same time, it's not as if shares are going to make a full recovery on this news alone. Post-rally, there could still be an opportunity to scoop up this blue chip while it sports an above-average yield and improved long-term prospects to boot.
Nike (NYSE: NKE) stock has suffered a steep decline in 2026, but historical data suggests the shares could be poised for a recovery in November.
Notably, Nike stock has historically gained an average of 4.48% between November 14 and December 4, closing higher in all 10 years examined by SeasonalityX. However, the 100% historical win rate does not guarantee similar returns in 2026.
The data identified 676 recurring seasonal windows over the past decade, including 393 bullish and 283 bearish patterns. The October 31 to November 10 window delivered an average return of 1.45%, with an 80% win rate.
Nike seasonality chart. Source: SeasonalityX November 1 to December 1 recorded an average return of 6.19%, while November 2 to December 2 returned 6.25%. Both windows had 90% win rates.
These patterns point to potential seasonal upside, although Nike’s fundamentals remain under pressure. The stock rose 0.22% in the latest session to close at $37, while remaining down 41% year to date. Indeed, Nike is trading well below its 52-week high of $70.44.
NKE YTD stock price chart. Source: Google Finance Nike’s fiscal Q1 2027 revenue fell 4% year over year to $11.21 billion, while Greater China sales plunged 26%, marking nine consecutive quarters of declines. Intensifying local competition, weaker demand, and sluggish Sportswear and Jordan Brand sales have weighed on growth and pricing power.
Nike Direct revenue fell 6% to $17.7 billion in fiscal 2026, while digital sales declined 12%. In Q1 FY2027, Nike Direct revenue fell another 8% and digital sales dropped 13%.
Nike’s management focus Management is refocusing on performance sports and rebuilding wholesale relationships. Nike also plans to end online sales arrangements with some major Chinese retail partners in early 2027 to regain control over distribution and pricing, although the changes could pressure near-term revenue.
At the moment, Nike expects fiscal 2027 revenue to decline at a high-single-digit rate. Its Pace restructuring program is expected to deliver $2.5 billion in cumulative savings through fiscal 2031, although additional restructuring charges are expected.
Despite weak sales, Nike retains a strong global brand, an established distribution network, and $8.4 billion in cash and short-term investments as of August 2026.
The company generated $46.4 billion in fiscal 2026 revenue, while performance footwear and North America have shown relative resilience. The 2026 FIFA World Cup also offered an opportunity to boost football product sales.
Nike’s gross margin rose 60 basis points year over year to 42.8% in fiscal Q1 2027, but stronger demand, less discounting and sustained cash generation are needed to confirm a recovery.
Featured image via Shutterstock
Best Crypto Exchange for Intermediate Traders and Investors
Invest in cryptocurrencies and 3,000+ other assets including stocks and precious metals.
0% commission on stocks - buy in bulk or just a fraction from as little as $10. Other fees apply. For more information, visit etoro.com/trading/fees.
Copy top-performing traders in real time, automatically.
eToro USA is registered with FINRA for securities trading.
30+ million Users worldwide
eToro is a multi-asset investment platform. The value of your investments may go up or down. Your capital is at risk. Don’t invest unless you’re prepared to lose all the money you invest. This is a high-risk investment and you should not expect to be protected if something goes wrong. Take 2 mins to learn more.
Join Finbold's newsroom, become a Sales Executive today! Apply now to join Finbold as a crypto/finance news writer!
Společnosti Nike ve čtvrtletí klesly tržby o 4 % meziročně, v Číně o 26 %. Program Pace má přinést úspory 2,5 miliardy USD, většinu až za dva až tři roky.
In late 2024, Nike (NKE +1.13%) brought on veteran executive Elliott Hill to replace John Donahoe as CEO and execute a new turnaround strategy. Two years later, investors are still waiting for the turnaround to show progress, and the stock price has been cut by more than 50%.
Wall Street analysts have lost hope that Nike will return to its former glory. Just 11 of the 43 analysts covering the company rate the stock a buy or overweight. The median price target for the stock is below its current price as of this writing.
Sometimes the best opportunities in the market appear just as it seems everyone has given up on a company. Is it time to be greedy while others are fearful for Nike's future?
Image source: The Motley Fool.
A new turnaround plan Hill developed the Win Now turnaround plan for Nike shortly after taking over as CEO in 2024. The focus was to improve marketing and product development while expanding distribution channels.
That focus has failed to pay off. While wholesale revenue has climbed in North America, offsetting weakness in direct sales last quarter, overall sales dropped 4% year over year last quarter. Management also forecast even bigger revenue declines through the rest of fiscal 2027. The struggle is especially profound in Greater China, where total sales dropped 26% year over year in the first quarter. China was previously a significant source of revenue growth.
To be sure, Nike's struggles in the region aren't entirely its fault. Macroeconomic headwinds have put pressure on Chinese consumers. That said, competing shoe companies On Holding and Decker Outdoor's Hoka both called out strong sales momentum in China last quarter.
NKE Nike$37.56+$0.42 (+1.13%)
NYSE · As of 11:33 AM ET 10/16/26
That speaks to the real challenge facing Nike. Its brand strength appears to be eroding as competing companies enter the market with better products and successful marketing campaigns. It's not just footwear, either. Nike faces stiff competition from many new apparel companies using direct-to-consumer channels and marketing to gain share.
Hill's turnaround plan appears to focus on the right challenges facing Nike -- reestablishing its brand through marketing and better products -- but it's taking a lot longer than anticipated. Now the company has introduced its Pace plan, which focuses on enabling faster operational changes. As a result, Nike expects to drive $2.5 billion in cost savings, but the majority of those savings won't be delivered for two or three years.
Can Nike overcome the challenges? The biggest question mark for investors considering picking up Nike shares at the lowest price it's traded since 2013 is whether its competitive advantage remains intact. A wonderful business can face setbacks, but as long as it maintains a wide moat, it can recover relatively quickly in the grand scheme of things.
The clearest sign of a competitive advantage is a relatively strong gross margin. Nike's gross margin expanded 60 basis points year over year last quarter, reaching 42.8%. That's well below the 45.4% gross margin it achieved a couple of years ago, but it also reflects an increase in wholesale revenue relative to direct sales.
A cause for concern, however, is that both On Holdings and Deckers Outdoor have increased their gross margins over the past decade, while Nike's has remained flat. What's more, they're producing much better gross margins. Likewise, Nike has seen a drop in its return on invested capital while its competitors have seen that metric improve, another sign of a weakening moat.
For now, it's best to wait and see about Nike stock. Investors should look for the Pace program and its cost-cutting efforts to produce better gross and operating margins while returning the company to sales growth. That will be the earliest indication that its brand strength and recent innovations are starting to resonate with customers, and that management can actually turn the business around and sustain growth for years to come.
Don't get greedy yet, but Nike could be a good stock to keep on your watch list.
Ve fiskálním 1. čtvrtletí 2027 klesly společnosti Nike tržby z velkoobchodu o 1 % na 6,80 mld. USD, zatímco tržby Nike Direct se snížily o 8 % na 4,14 mld. USD.
Nike made a calculated bet that shoppers would follow the swoosh wherever it led, and for a while the margin math looked brilliant. What happened inside those emptied retail fixtures reshaped the entire competitive landscape in ways Nike is still…
Nike (NYSE:NKE | NKE Price Prediction) shares opened at $37.67 on Friday, a small gap up from the prior close. The stock is up 8.5% over the past week. No specific reason for that move has been reported. Over longer periods, shares are down 40.9% year to date, 43.7% over one year, and 76.2% over five years.
On the October 14, 2026, episode of The Investor’s Podcast (TIP853), co-host Kyle Grieve tied the decline to one choice: “Nike pulled its products from Foot Locker, and when they tried to reverse that decision, Foot Locker realized these other brands could sell just as well in that same prime real estate historically reserved only for Nike.” He also said Nike found that customers “were not as devoutly loyal to their products as they thought.”
Why Selling Direct Looked Like the Smarter Play Nike had real reasons to go direct. When it sells through its own stores, Nike.com, and its app, it keeps the margin a retailer would take, collects first-party customer data, and controls pricing and presentation. Grieve described the goal as owning the customer relationship and cutting out the wholesaler — the model Lululemon (NASDAQ:LULU) and Aritzia run.
The weak point was the assumption that shoppers would follow the swoosh wherever it went. As Nike cut back its wholesale orders, retailers filled the open wall space with rival brands, and those brands sold. Once a retailer has its own sell-through data on a competitor in a prime fixture, Nike must now negotiate for shelf space it once received by default.
Wholesale Is Back in the Numbers The channel mix has now turned. In fiscal Q2 2026, wholesale revenue rose 8% to $7.5 billion while Nike Direct fell 8% to $4.6 billion. In fiscal Q1 2027, reported on October 1, 2026, wholesale slipped 1% to $6.80 billion, Nike Direct fell 8% to $4.14 billion, and Nike Brand Digital dropped 13%. North America wholesale grew 9%.
The retail side has consolidated too. Dick’s Sporting Goods (NYSE:DKS) completed its acquisition of Foot Locker. On the October 1 call, Nike’s chief executive, Elliott Hill, described the company as “rebuilding our wholesale partnerships” and said, “performance product is selling” at accounts that include Dick’s and Foot Locker.
Total revenue came in at $11.21 billion, down 4.3% and below the $11.32 billion consensus. EPS of $0.48 beat the $0.44 estimate. Nike’s earnings release noted more work to do in Nike Sportswear, Jordan Brand, and Greater China, where revenue fell 22%.
A Moat Built Only on Brand Is Thinner Than Investors Assume Grieve’s co-host Shawn O’Malley was talking about Aritzia, but his point covers the whole category: “Brand is really Aritzia’s one competitive advantage. There are no switching costs, no network effects, no cost advantages. Retail is a place where things can go from great to bad very quickly, and there are very few instances of clothing brands being durable compounders.” He added, “Retail stocks can be like playing with fire. Things can worsen very quickly in retail. But on the flip side, when a brand is surging, returns can be explosive.”
Nike has scale and a large roster of athlete endorsements. A retailer deciding how to use a fixture, though, looks mostly at how fast the product sells. With no switching costs for shoppers, Nike’s spot on the shelf depends on how well its products sell.
What Has to Change Before Nike’s Next Report Management expects fiscal 2027 revenue to decline high single digits, with adjusted EPS of $1.15 to $1.35. That range excludes about $0.15 in costs from the Pace restructuring. The chief financial officer warned of revenue pressure “for the remainder of fiscal 27 and into 28.”
Rebuilding Nike’s shelf position would take three things:
Wholesale growth in North America that holds up without excess inventory, as Nike works with partners to clear excess inventory Signs that Sportswear and Jordan are stabilizing, since they were a “high single-digit drag” on results Gross margin holding near 42.8% as Nike cuts supply to improve full-price sales The next test is Nike’s fiscal Q2 2027 report. It is expected on December 16, 2026, after the close, but the company has not confirmed the date. Watch whether wholesale gains in that report come with healthy sell-through. That would show whether Nike is winning back prime shelf space or just shipping more product into it.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Nike otevře v Bengaluru nový globální kampus jako dlouhodobou sázku na růst v Indii. Firma zároveň v 1. fiskálním čtvrtletí zaznamenala v Číně pokles tržeb o 26 %.
The retailer, which has been struggling to revive its business and regain momentum under CEO Elliott Hill, is hoping the world's most populous country can help it turn the page on its performance.
As it reported its fiscal first-quarter earnings on Oct. 1, the company announced it will create a new global campus in Bengaluru, India, as part of its growth strategy. Hill wrote in a letter to employees that the new facility would be a "long-term investment" to help position Nike for success.
"India is already an important growth market and manufacturing hub for Nike, with strong capabilities and access to talent," Hill wrote.
The new campus is expected to open in the next few years and span corporate roles across the organization, including the namesake Nike brand, Jordan Brand and Converse. Nike plans to discuss its India campus in detail at its investor day next month.
In a statement to CNBC, a Nike spokesperson said expanding into India is a "natural" next step for the company as it looks to grow its global presence.
"As participation in running, basketball, football, fitness and other sports continues to grow across India, we see an opportunity to better serve athletes through stronger local capabilities, consumer insights, and innovation," the spokesperson said.
India will be the world's third-largest retail market by 2030, according to Indian conglomerate Reliance Industries. Its e-commerce market was valued at $159.25 billion in 2026 and is projected to reach $332.94 billion by 2031, according to IBEF, a business advocacy organization created by the Indian government.
Nike has endured a yearslong slump and is trying to right its business under Hill's turnaround plan. Nike also announced this month that it would lay off workers across the company as part of what it has dubbed its Pace strategy, which includes supply chain changes and reorganization of the company's geographic segments. Nike expects the effort to deliver approximately $2.5 billion in savings through fiscal 2031.
Nike's decision to invest further in India as part of its comeback comes as the sportswear company sheds revenue in another critical international market: China. Though its fiscal first-quarter North America revenue came in just above Wall Street expectations, Hill said that performance wasn't enough to offset pressures abroad.
Nike has been particularly struggling in the Greater China market, where its revenue dropped by 26% in its fiscal first quarter. It's part of what experts have said is a broader trend of American companies losing relevance and traction to domestic brands as the once-lucrative market matures.
On a call with analysts earlier this month, Hill said the company was taking "deliberate actions" to strengthen its China business, though he said those effects will take time to materialize. Hill said the company plans to refresh its physical retail, spearhead a digital cleanup and create higher quality experiences for consumers.
The Nike spokesperson told CNBC the company is "deeply committed" to China and sees the region as one of its "most important long-term growth markets," even as Nike expands its presence in India.
"China remains a long-term priority for Nike, while India represents another important opportunity to invest in the future of sport and the next generation of athletes," the spokesperson said.
Investing in a long-term visionThe company's expansion in India may be coming at both an opportune and inopportune time, according to experts. Investing in a growing international market does not guarantee higher sales — it also requires persuading Indian consumers they want the Nike brand, a challenge the company has struggled to overcome in China.
"What Nike, I think, is doing right now is going region by region and working to reestablish what the brand stands for," Simeon Siegel, a senior managing director at Guggenheim Securities, told CNBC.
Siegel said part of the dissonance for Nike is that each region and segment of the business is at a different stage of its turnaround. He said investing in India may set the company up for a more sustainable future if the China business continues to lag, but Nike needs to have a compelling product, solid storytelling and extensive distribution in the region to be successful there.
"I think the company needs to look inward and figure out what is the right way to reestablish profitability," he said. "And that involves, in certain instances, shrinking and saving and cutting, and, in certain instances, investing and looking toward the future, because the goal here is not to shrink to oblivion; it's to shrink to stability, and then ultimately growth."
The global strategy may also focus too much on a long-term vision rather than more immediate fixes, according to Jessica Ramirez, co-founder and managing director at advisory firm The Consumer Collective, who specializes in retail and apparel. Ramirez said she already thought Nike and Hill's vision were "out of touch" and the plan for the India campus didn't necessarily help its case.
"I don't know that this plan of India is an immediate solution to their problems right now," she said. "They have to plan long term, right? But they also need to plan short term, which is continuously falling apart."
She said Nike has not shared plans that are concrete enough to win back momentum in China and has to develop both regions hand in hand.
While Nike under Hill has improved its wholesale and performance categories, Ramirez said it has yet to master its direct-to-consumer and sportswear segments, which would allow the company to flourish in all of its markets.
The Nike spokesperson told CNBC the retailer is committed to investing in both countries as it tries to expand its global presence.
"Importantly, this is not an either/or decision between India and China," the spokesperson said. "We always invest market by market based on long-term opportunities to serve athletes and grow sport around the world."
A growing market opportunityStill, India presents an attractive opportunity for many companies looking to unlock growth abroad.
Ramirez said Nike is just the latest to join a cohort of American companies looking to establish their presence in the market. While many brands began investing in China years ago, she said that trend is now pointing toward India instead, as U.S. companies see more spending pressures in the Chinese market and navigate geopolitical tensions between the two countries.
"It's to get in there for the long term and to make sure that they are there for when they can reap the positive effects," she said. "I want to say this conversation started getting a bit more engaging in the last two to three years, when companies started investing more in India."
India is one of the world's strongest market performers, driven primarily by domestic demand, investment and supply-chain diversification, according to an analysis from Accenture. With a population of over 1 billion, the country presents a growth opportunity similar to the one China offered in the early 2000s.
"It's going to be a fast-growing consumer base where we assume their income levels will continue to go up and they'll have much more purchasing power, and so maybe could we be tapping in on that market from a consumer lens," Chris Tomsovic, who leads Accenture's macro foresight team, told CNBC.
Still, one of the biggest focus points for the Indian consumer is price sensitivity, which will pose a challenge for American companies trying to break into the market, he added. Even so, many domestic brands on the market are younger, meaning there could be more opportunities right now for Western companies to take market share.
Another challenge is that the Chinese consumer has historically been receptive to American brands, whereas it will still take more data to understand how Indian shoppers feel about those businesses, he said. For sportswear retailers, the focus of the sports most popular in each region will also factor into that equation.
"Can they really localize the product, make the price point work? Can they adapt to the local social media technology ecosystem? Can they adapt to the local cultural values and norms that the consumer wants?" Tomsovic said.
"If you're able to nail that, then I think you're right. Whether you're a footwear brand, whether you're an athleisure brand, I think there's a huge opportunity there with a billion consumers," he said.
Nike ve fiskálním roce 2026 vyplatila na dividendách o 223 mil. USD více, než činil její volný peněžní tok. Vedení však hodlá dividendu zachovat a postupně ji zvyšovat.
Nike has handed income investors 24 straight years of dividend growth, but a shrinking business, free cash flow that no longer covers the payout, and a five-year turnaround plan leave this November's announcement hanging by a thread.
The dividend from Nike (NYSE:NKE | NKE Price Prediction) now yields about 4.48%. That figure is high because the stock has fallen 41.02% this year to $36.60. Retirees who hold Nike for income want to know one thing: will a run that reached its 24th consecutive year of increasing dividend payouts keep going while the business is still shrinking?
Nike usually announces its raise in November. It declared the first $0.41 payment on November 20, 2025 and the first $0.40 payment on November 14, 2024. This year’s decision lands close to a November investor day, where management plans to lay out a financial algorithm covering the following five years.
Raises Are Getting Smaller Every Year Ex-Dividend Window Quarterly Dividend Raise Dec 2022 to Sep 2023 $0.34 n/a Dec 2023 to Sep 2024 $0.37 8.8% Dec 2024 to Sep 2025 $0.40 8.1% Dec 2025 to Sep 2026 $0.41 2.5% The last raise added one cent a quarter. That sharp slowdown matters more for income investors than anything else on this list.
Free Cash Flow Fell Short of the Dividend In fiscal 2026, Nike generated $2.868 billion in operating cash flow and spent $684 million on capital expenditures. That left $2.184 billion in free cash flow against $2.407 billion in dividends, a gap of $223 million. Coverage got worse in the first quarter of fiscal 2027, when free cash flow was negative $64 million and dividends cost $610 million.
Against earnings, the annual dividend is $1.64, and adjusted EPS guidance is $1.15 to $1.35. That places the payout at 131.2% of earnings at the center of guidance, the kind of thin coverage that lands on every checklist of warning signs we flagged in our free dividend trap guide.
Buybacks Have Already Been Cut Share repurchases dropped from $4.25 billion in fiscal 2024 to $146 million in fiscal 2026, even though Nike has an $18 billion plan. Nike is cutting buybacks to protect the dividend. CFO Dave Denton said on the October 1 call:
“Dividend is a very significant priority for us here at Nike. Under all scenarios, we have support for maintaining and ultimately growing the dividend over time.”
Nike can fund the shortfall from its $8.4 billion in cash and short-term investments, and it holds more cash than debt.
Sales Are Still Falling Before the Pace Savings Arrive First-quarter revenue fell 4.3% to $11.21 billion, and Greater China dropped 22%. Gross margin improved 60 bps to 42.8%, but management expects discounts used to clear excess wholesale inventory to pressure margins. Nike expects fiscal 2027 revenue to fall by a high-single-digit percentage and operating profit (EBIT) to fall even more. Pace, Nike’s cost-cutting and restructuring program, targets $2.5 billion in savings, with most of them arriving in fiscal years 2029 and 2030. CEO Elliott Hill said:
“We have more work to do in NIKE Sportswear, Jordan Brand and Greater China, and we’re taking deliberate actions to strengthen those businesses the right way for the long term.”
How Two Rivals Handle Cash Lululemon Athletica (NASDAQ:LULU) pays no dividend and returns cash through buybacks, including $330.0 million in its second quarter. VF Corp (NYSE:VFC) pays just $0.09 a quarter while it works to reduce debt, on free cash flow of $405M in fiscal 2026. Nike has made a larger dividend promise than either company, so it has more to lose if it breaks the run.
Verdict: The Streak Should Survive, but Growth Will Stall Yes, Nike will most likely keep raising its dividend, because its cash pile can cover the gap and management has tied its credibility to the run. However, investors should expect raises to stay about as small as the last one-penny increase through fiscal 2028. Real dividend growth will have to wait until the Pace savings come. Keep an eye on the November investor day for the five-year targets.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Money is rotating out of AI darlings and into consumer brands that spent the past year getting beaten down, and Nike is leading that charge. Whether the buying pressure signals a real turnaround or just a temporary bounce hinges on…
The hardest-hit names in consumer discretionary are drawing fresh buyers as money shifts away from the market’s favorite trades. Nike (NYSE:NKE | NKE Price Prediction) stock is at $36.89, up 5% in morning trading, leading a rebound in battered footwear and apparel names.
Meanwhile, Lululemon Athletica (NASDAQ:LULU) stock is at $98.24, up 4%, tracking Nike’s gain. On Holding (NYSE:ONON) stock is at $35.30, down 0.6%, missing the rebound.
For sector context, the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (NYSEARCA:XLY) is at $112.68, up 1%. However, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY) is at $769.71, practically unchanged, so the consumer-products sector rally is running against a softer broad market.
Money Rotates From AI Into Consumer Brands Investors are shifting funds out of artificial intelligence and technology names into consumer and defensive sectors, and Nike stock leads the battered brands catching that bid. Shares of Nike entered October on pace for their worst year on record, leaving room for a rebound.
Riding a mania while planning the exit is the whole exercise in our free bubble survivor’s handbook, which pairs well with the rotation story playing out now.
In its Q1 FY2027 report on October 1, Nike posted GAAP diluted EPS of $0.48, ahead of the $0.44 consensus. The company’s revenue slipped to $11.21 billion, missing expectations. That mix of an earnings beat and a revenue miss repeated the pattern from the prior quarter.
Greater China dragged on Nike’s results, with revenue there falling 22%, while Converse dropped 28%. Profitability held up better, as Nike’s gross margin expanded 60 basis points to 42.8%.
North America offered a bright spot for Nike, with revenue rising 2% to $5.13 billion as running, global football and basketball grew. Its digital channel stayed soft, with Nike Brand Digital down 13%.
Wall Street Splits on Nike Bank of America analyst Lorraine Hutchinson downgraded Nike shares to Underperform from Neutral on September 25, then cut the firm’s price target again after the October 1 report. Hutchinson pointed to fading momentum in the lifestyle category and weakness in Greater China. Oppenheimer kept an Outperform rating on Nike shares while cutting its own price target.
That split frames the value-versus-value-trap debate. Nike stock trades at a trailing twelve-month P/E ratio of 18x, a multiple that looks cheap only if earnings recover. Management has guided fiscal 2027 revenue to decline high-single digits, with adjusted diluted EPS of $1.15 to $1.35.
Pace, Nike’s new restructuring program, targets $2.5 billion in cumulative savings through fiscal 2031 against $1 billion in pre-tax charges. The plan reorganizes Nike from four geographies to three, though most savings land in fiscal 2029 and 2030. CEO Elliott Hill said, “The Sport Offense is driving measurable progress across our performance business.”
Lululemon Joins the Rally as On Holding Slips Lululemon shares fit the same profile. The company is working through a turnaround, with incoming CEO Heidi O’Neill set to take the helm. Management’s recovery plan centers on fresh product and brand investment, the tools it highlighted for winning back traffic.
On Holding stock sits on the other side of that divide. Known for its CloudTec cushioning technology, the Swiss premium footwear brand has been the growth outperformer in the space, and the slight dip in On Holding stock contrasts with the gain in Nike stock. That gap shows the rally concentrating in the names that have fallen furthest.
Sales Decide the Next Chapter for Nike The next test for Nike is whether sales stabilize. During the October 1 earnings call, Hill stated, “At our size and scale, meaningful change takes time. Our turnaround is happening.” CFO Dave Denton added that Nike’s guidance assumes China “actually gets worse from a revenue perspective for the balance of this year.”
Nike’s investor day in November could show whether management’s broader financial targets hold up. Shares of Nike could keep drawing rotation buyers, yet the bearish call from Bank of America remains a counterweight until revenue turns.
Denton also called the Nike dividend “a very significant priority,” which offers holders some support during the reset. When all is said and done, NKE stock investors should keep their exposure moderate for now.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Tržby Nike v 1. čtvrtletí fiskálního roku 2027 meziročně klesly o 4 % na 11,2 miliardy USD; společnost pro celý rok očekává pokles v řádu vyšších jednociferných procent.
According to Interbrand, Nike (NKE -0.06%) is the world's 23rd-most-valuable brand. That kind of global recognition, built over decades, hasn't helped investors at all. The leading sportswear enterprise has faltered. And management has been in the middle of a turnaround that's taking longer than anticipated.
This consumer discretionary stock is down an alarming 80% from its peak (as of Oct. 12), set almost five years ago in November 2021. For investors, here's the only number that matters to the Nike story right now.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
Watch the top line
Investors don't have to look hard to find the prevailing metric that makes or breaks the turnaround. It all comes down to Nike's revenue.
In the latest fiscal quarter (Q1 2027 ended Aug. 31), the top line fell 4% year over year to $11.2 billion. This figure missed Wall Street analyst estimates. On a trailing 12-month basis, sales steadily declined over the past two and a half years.
Revenue is a clear signal of the company's demand trajectory. And it hasn't been encouraging. In North America, which is Nike's largest territory, sales climbed 2% in the first quarter.
Greater China has been wildly disappointing. Revenue there dipped 22% in the last fiscal quarter. "We continue to execute a marketplace reset in China," CEO Elliott Hill said on the earnings call.
Looking at the product picture, it's a mixed bag. On the one hand, performance sales were up high single digits. Running was up double digits. But sportswear revenue, defined by footwear such as the Air Force 1, Nike Dunk, and Air Max series, fell by low double digits. And the Jordan brand dropped by a mid-teens percentage.
Nike is desperately trying to drum up customer excitement. However, it will be a difficult road ahead. The leadership team expects revenue to decline by high single digits in fiscal 2027. Unless Nike returns to healthy and consistent sales growth, the rest of the income statement will feel the pain, particularly around profitability. From a historical perspective, margins will remain under pressure.
Management will hold an investor day next month. The business will reveal fresh long-term financial guidance that could add to the bearish sentiment if the outlook misses the mark.
Premium Feature
Moneyball Superscore
54/100
Today's Change
(
-0.06
%) $
-0.02
Current Price
$
35.33
A risky opportunity
At $35.11 per share, Nike's stock is at a 13-year low. It seems that sentiment could not be any worse. Contrarian investors might find this to be a compelling opportunity. After all, if Nike reports upbeat financial results, its shares could perform well.
I view the company as a risky bet, though. It's extremely difficult to invest in turnaround situations. There is so much uncertainty not only around actual progress being made, but also the timing of these possible improvements. I think investors are better off being overly cautious with Nike right now.
Nike (NKE - Free Report) is one of the stocks most watched by Zacks.com visitors lately. So, it might be a good idea to review some of the factors that might affect the near-term performance of the stock.
Over the past month, shares of this athletic apparel maker have returned -5.1%, compared to the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +1.3% change. During this period, the Zacks Shoes and Retail Apparel industry, which Nike falls in, has lost 6.9%. The key question now is: What could be the stock's future direction?
Although media reports or rumors about a significant change in a company's business prospects usually cause its stock to trend and lead to an immediate price change, there are always certain fundamental factors that ultimately drive the buy-and-hold decision.
Earnings Estimate RevisionsHere at Zacks, we prioritize appraising the change in the projection of a company's future earnings over anything else. That's because we believe the present value of its future stream of earnings is what determines the fair value for its stock.
Our analysis is essentially based on how sell-side analysts covering the stock are revising their earnings estimates to take the latest business trends into account. When earnings estimates for a company go up, the fair value for its stock goes up as well. And when a stock's fair value is higher than its current market price, investors tend to buy the stock, resulting in its price moving upward. Because of this, empirical studies indicate a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and short-term stock price movements.
Nike is expected to post earnings of $0.40 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of -24.5%. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed -24.3%.
The consensus earnings estimate of $1.34 for the current fiscal year indicates a year-over-year change of -15.2%. This estimate has changed -25.6% over the last 30 days.
For the next fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of $1.78 indicates a change of +32.8% from what Nike is expected to report a year ago. Over the past month, the estimate has changed -23.9%.
Having a strong externally audited track record, our proprietary stock rating tool, the Zacks Rank, offers a more conclusive picture of a stock's price direction in the near term, since it effectively harnesses the power of earnings estimate revisions. Due to the size of the recent change in the consensus estimate, along with three other factors related to earnings estimates, Nike is rated Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell).
The chart below shows the evolution of the company's forward 12-month consensus EPS estimate:
12 Month EPS
Revenue Growth ForecastWhile earnings growth is arguably the most superior indicator of a company's financial health, nothing happens as such if a business isn't able to grow its revenues. After all, it's nearly impossible for a company to increase its earnings for an extended period without increasing its revenues. So, it's important to know a company's potential revenue growth.
For Nike, the consensus sales estimate for the current quarter of $11.5 billion indicates a year-over-year change of -7.5%. For the current and next fiscal years, $42.72 billion and $44.89 billion estimates indicate -7.9% and +5.1% changes, respectively.
Last Reported Results and Surprise HistoryNike reported revenues of $11.21 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of -4.3%. EPS of $0.48 for the same period compares with $0.49 a year ago.
Compared to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $11.4 billion, the reported revenues represent a surprise of -1.65%. The EPS surprise was +11.63%.
The company beat consensus EPS estimates in each of the trailing four quarters. The company topped consensus revenue estimates three times over this period.
ValuationNo investment decision can be efficient without considering a stock's valuation. Whether a stock's current price rightly reflects the intrinsic value of the underlying business and the company's growth prospects is an essential determinant of its future price performance.
While comparing the current values of a company's valuation multiples, such as price-to-earnings (P/E), price-to-sales (P/S), and price-to-cash flow (P/CF), with its own historical values helps determine whether its stock is fairly valued, overvalued, or undervalued, comparing the company relative to its peers on these parameters gives a good sense of the reasonability of the stock's price.
The Zacks Value Style Score (part of the Zacks Style Scores system), which pays close attention to both traditional and unconventional valuation metrics to grade stocks from A to F (an A is better than a B; a B is better than a C; and so on), is pretty helpful in identifying whether a stock is overvalued, rightly valued, or temporarily undervalued.
Nike is graded D on this front, indicating that it is trading at a premium to its peers. Click here to see the values of some of the valuation metrics that have driven this grade.
ConclusionThe facts discussed here and much other information on Zacks.com might help determine whether or not it's worthwhile paying attention to the market buzz about Nike. However, its Zacks Rank #5 does suggest that it may underperform the broader market in the near term.
Tržby Nike ve Velké Číně v 1. čtvrtletí fiskálního roku 2027 klesly při konstantních měnových kurzech o 26 %, zatímco celkové tržby se snížily o 4 % na zhruba 11,2 miliardy USD.
Nike (NKE +1.11%) is like a retired professional athlete hoping to stage a comeback, but struggling to find a way to keep pace with the next generation of stars. Down roughly 80% from the all-time high it touched in late 2021, the stock is at its lowest level in more than a decade.
Some may say it's a bargain, but there's one reason I'm still avoiding the stock: China.
Premium Feature
Moneyball Superscore
55/100
Today's Change
(
1.11
%) $
0.38
Current Price
$
34.74
Nike's sales in the Greater China region fell by 26% on a constant-currency basis in the first quarter of its fiscal 2027, accelerating its decline in that region. The sneaker and athletic apparel giant doesn't seem to have a clear answer for how to win back customers in China, as consumers there have moved beyond the "Swoosh," and now tend to favor Chinese-born brands.
While Nike's sliding China sales stand out, the overall company is shrinking as well. Revenue fell 4% to just over $11.2 billion, which was more than $107 million below analysts' consensus expectations. Converse and Nike Brand Digital sales fell 28% and 13%, respectively.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
CEO Elliott Hill announced there would be layoffs in 2027 as Nike undergoes a restructuring, but the company hasn't released specifics of the plan yet.
There was some good news in the fiscal Q1 report: Gross margin expanded, sales in the North America region grew by 2% on a constant-currency basis, and earnings per share beat expectations. Those upbeat notes, unfortunately, weren't enough to overcome the slew of unpleasant metrics, nor the expectation that the company will cut its revenue guidance for the fiscal year.
I'm not convinced this global apparel brand will achieve its turnaround anytime soon. It needs to find a strategy to stabilize sales in China and begin to lure customers back, but consumers have plenty of choices and little brand loyalty. Additionally, Nike hasn't produced any newsworthy or innovative products in quite some time. What it needs is a total brand refresh, and until it gets one, Nike stock is still too expensive for investors to buy.
Catie Hogan has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Nike. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
SummaryNike is downgraded to hold due to mounting concerns over dividend sustainability and deteriorating fundamentals.NKE's dividend yield has surged to 4.8% from share price declines, but payout ratios now exceed 100% of forward EPS guidance.Free cash flow coverage is insufficient too, with recent quarters showing negative FCF and trailing 12-month FCF below dividend requirements.Persistent sales declines in Greater China, weak sell-through, and elevated inventory signal continued headwinds and limited turnaround visibility.Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Envision Early Retirement get exclusive access to our subscriber-only portfolios. Learn More » magical_light/iStock via Getty Images
Nike's Stock: a yield bargain or a dividend trap? We last covered Nike, Inc. stock (NKE) a bit more than 1 year ago in August 2025. The article rated the stock as Buy. After evaluating its EPS
10.96K Followers
Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.
Key Takeaways NIKE's 20.12X forward P/E exceeds the industry average of 17.3X despite recent stock weakness.FY27 revenues are expected to fall in the high single digits, while EBIT is projected to decline faster.NIKE faces weakness in Sportswear, Jordan Brand and Greater China as turnaround benefits remain delayed. NIKE Inc. (NKE - Free Report) stock has been volatile in recent months, reflecting weakening demand, margin pressure and ongoing business-reset actions. However, its current forward 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 20.12X raises valuation concerns. This multiple exceeds the Zacks Shoes and Retail Apparel industry average of 17.3X, making NIKE’s stock appear relatively expensive.
Adding to investor caution, the company’s elevated price-to-sales (P/S) ratio affects enthusiasm. The Beaverton, OR-based athletic giant trades at a forward 12-month P/S of 1.11X, above the industry’s 1.04X. Together with its Value Score of D, this suggests that NIKE may not present a compelling value opportunity at current levels despite its strong fundamentals and brand leadership.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
NIKE’s Premium Valuation Surpasses PeersAt 20.12X P/E, the Swoosh brand owner is trading at a much higher valuation than its competitors. Its peers, such as adidas AG (ADDYY - Free Report) , Steven Madden (SHOO - Free Report) and Wolverine World Wide (WWW - Free Report) , are delivering solid growth and trade at more reasonable multiples. adidas, Steven Madden and Wolverine have forward 12-month P/E ratios of 12.57X, 17.84X and 10.52X — all lower than that of NIKE. At such levels, NKE’s valuation seems out of step with its growth trajectory, especially given the recent decrease in its stock price.
NIKE’s elevated valuation underscores investors’ high growth expectations. However, compared with key competitors, the company appears increasingly vulnerable as market participants turn cautious toward overpriced Consumer Discretionary stocks. NKE’s ability to consistently deliver on or exceed these expectations will be critical to sustaining its premium valuation.
NIKE shares have lost 22.9% in the past three months compared with a 19.7% decline in the broader industry. The stock has also underperformed the Consumer Discretionary sector’s 5.7% decline and the S&P 500’s 2% growth in the same period.
NIKE’s performance has been relatively dismal compared with its peers. Shares of Wolverine World Wide and Steven Madden have outperformed NKE in the past three months, recording 10.4% and 14.6% growth, respectively. Meanwhile, shares of adidas have underperformed NKE with a 24.9% decline.
NKE’s 3-Month Stock Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
At the current price of $33.96, the NKE stock trades close to its 52-week low of $31.94 reached on Oct. 2, 2026. The recent fall to the 52-week low was led by the company’s dismal first-quarter fiscal 2027 results on Oct. 1. The current stock price is 53.1% below its 52-week high mark of $72.39. NKE trades below its 50 and 200-day moving averages, indicating a bearish sentiment.
What’s Hurting NIKE’s Stock PerformanceNIKE’s recent share-price pressure appears fundamentally tied to concerns that its turnaround will take longer and involve greater near-term earnings pain. First-quarter fiscal 2027 revenues declined 4% on a reported basis and 5% on a currency-neutral basis, underscoring persistent weakness across several key businesses.
NIKE Sportswear, Jordan Brand and Greater China remain the primary drags, offsetting solid momentum in the Performance portfolio. Sportswear declined in the low double digits, hurt by a nearly 50% reduction in Dunk revenues, weaker-than-expected sell-through of aged footwear and softer lifestyle traffic. Management also acknowledged broader marketplace pressure and a lack of energy in the lifestyle category.
Jordan Brand is another near-term headwind. Revenues fell in the mid-teens as NIKE deliberately reduces the volume and frequency of retro launches to restore scarcity and strengthen brand positioning. While strategically necessary, these actions are expected to weigh on sales, particularly in North America.
Greater China remains even more challenging, with revenues down 26% as NIKE restructures digital distribution, removes discount-heavy channels and works to improve inventory health. Management expects revenues and profitability in China to remain pressured for multiple seasons.
The outlook further explains investor caution. NIKE expects fiscal 2027 revenues to decline in the high-single-digit range, with EBIT falling faster than sales due to gross-margin pressure, fixed-cost deleverage and higher input costs. Although the Pace restructuring is expected to generate $2.5 billion in savings, most benefits are not expected until fiscal 2029-2030, reinforcing a prolonged “pain before gain” narrative.
NIKE’s Estimate Revision TrendThe Zacks Consensus Estimate for NIKE’s fiscal 2027 and 2028 earnings per share (EPS) have moved south, with estimates declining 3% and 2.3%, respectively, in the past seven days.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
For fiscal 2027, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for NKE’s revenues implies a 7% year-over-year decline, while the same for EPS suggests 1.3% growth. The consensus mark for fiscal 2028 revenues and EPS indicates 9.5% and 32.6% year-over-year growth, respectively.
Is NIKE Still Worth a Shot?NIKE’s first-quarter fiscal 2027 performance underscores the near-term pains surrounding its turnaround. Persistent weakness in Sportswear, Jordan Brand and Greater China, coupled with expectations for a high-single-digit revenue decline and greater pressure on EBIT, suggests that a meaningful recovery may take time. Against this backdrop, NIKE’s premium valuation looks difficult to justify, particularly as the stock continues to decline and trades near its 52-week low.
The negative estimate revision trend adds another concern. Although management’s restructuring efforts and Performance portfolio strength could support longer-term improvement, the current outlook remains subdued and execution risks are elevated.
Given the combination of a premium valuation, deteriorating share-price performance, downward earnings estimate revisions and a weak near-term operating outlook, investors may be better off staying on the sidelines. NIKE currently carries a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell), and it appears prudent to avoid the stock until clearer signs of revenue stabilization, margin recovery and improving earnings momentum emerge.
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
For its fiscal 2027 first quarter (ended Aug. 31), Nike (NKE +0.27%) reported revenue of $11.2 billion. This figure was down 4% year over year and came in below analyst estimates. The consumer discretionary stock felt the pain, adding to its slide, which now puts it 81% off its record set in November 2021 (as of Oct. 5).
But this company might present a very interesting opportunity for income investors. Here's how many Nike shares you'd need to bring in $10,000 in yearly dividends.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
Nike currently pays an annualized dividend of $1.64. This means that investors would need to own about 6,100 shares to generate a $10,000 passive annual income stream.
The dividend payout has climbed for 25 straight years. Before 2026 ends, history suggests that streak will likely rise to 26 consecutive years.
It's also hard not to focus on the current dividend yield, which is just under 5%. That's a sizable income stream for shareholders.
Premium Feature
Moneyball Superscore
55/100
Today's Change
(
0.27
%) $
0.09
Current Price
$
33.96
Given Nike's healthy financial position, the dividend payout faces minimal risk of being paused or cut. However, investors will have to be patient if they're waiting for the business to turn things around. Nike's biggest issue might be its struggle with product innovation. This has opened the door for smaller competitors to launch in-demand shoes that consumers are more excited about.
The dividend is compelling, no doubt. But investors should expect Nike's difficulties to continue in the near term.
Neil Patel has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Nike. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Rockland Trust Co. boosted its holdings in NIKE, Inc. (NYSE:NKE – Free Report) by 14.9% in the third quarter, according to the company in its most recent Form 13F filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The institutional investor owned 633,768 shares of the footwear maker’s stock after purchasing an additional 82,308 shares during the period. Rockland Trust Co.’s holdings in NIKE were worth $22,435,000 as of its most recent filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
Several other hedge funds and other institutional investors have also recently added to or reduced their stakes in NKE. State Street Corp grew its holdings in shares of NIKE by 2.2% in the 4th quarter. State Street Corp now owns 59,315,606 shares of the footwear maker’s stock valued at $3,802,807,000 after acquiring an additional 1,275,494 shares in the last quarter. Capital World Investors raised its holdings in NIKE by 16.2% during the fourth quarter. Capital World Investors now owns 49,069,951 shares of the footwear maker’s stock worth $3,126,246,000 after acquiring an additional 6,830,938 shares in the last quarter. J. Stern & Co. LLP raised its holdings in NIKE by 49,010.4% during the fourth quarter. J. Stern & Co. LLP now owns 48,054,542 shares of the footwear maker’s stock worth $3,061,555,000 after acquiring an additional 47,956,692 shares in the last quarter. Janus Henderson Group PLC boosted its position in NIKE by 12.5% during the fourth quarter. Janus Henderson Group PLC now owns 7,887,609 shares of the footwear maker’s stock valued at $502,537,000 after purchasing an additional 874,662 shares during the last quarter. Finally, Flossbach Von Storch SE bought a new position in NIKE in the second quarter valued at approximately $488,714,000. 64.25% of the stock is currently owned by institutional investors and hedge funds.
NIKE Stock Performance Shares of NKE traded down $0.26 during midday trading on Monday, reaching $33.61. 40,190,363 shares of the stock were exchanged, compared to its average volume of 24,214,264. The stock’s 50 day simple moving average is $38.88 and its 200 day simple moving average is $42.79. The company has a market cap of $49.87 billion, a P/E ratio of 16.14, a PEG ratio of 2.58 and a beta of 1.09. NIKE, Inc. has a twelve month low of $31.97 and a twelve month high of $72.39. The company has a quick ratio of 1.39, a current ratio of 2.07 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.39.
NIKE (NYSE:NKE – Get Free Report) last released its quarterly earnings results on Thursday, October 1st. The footwear maker reported $0.48 EPS for the quarter, beating the consensus estimate of $0.43 by $0.05. NIKE had a net margin of 6.74% and a return on equity of 15.94%. The business had revenue of $11.21 billion for the quarter, compared to the consensus estimate of $11.32 billion. During the same period in the prior year, the company posted $0.49 earnings per share. NIKE’s revenue was down 4.3% compared to the same quarter last year. NIKE has set its FY 2027 guidance at 1.150-1.350 EPS. On average, sell-side analysts expect that NIKE, Inc. will post 1.46 earnings per share for the current year. NIKE Announces Dividend The firm also recently declared a quarterly dividend, which was paid on Thursday, October 1st. Stockholders of record on Tuesday, September 1st were given a $0.41 dividend. This represents a $1.64 dividend on an annualized basis and a dividend yield of 4.9%. The ex-dividend date was Tuesday, September 1st. NIKE’s payout ratio is presently 78.85%.
Insider Buying and Selling In related news, EVP Philip McCartney sold 2,559 shares of the stock in a transaction that occurred on Wednesday, September 9th. The stock was sold at an average price of $37.59, for a total transaction of $96,192.81. Following the sale, the executive vice president owned 78,121 shares of the company’s stock, valued at $2,936,568.39. This represents a 3.17% decrease in their ownership of the stock. The sale was disclosed in a filing with the SEC, which is available through the SEC website. The transaction was executed under a pre-arranged Rule 10b5-1 trading plan. Also, CFO Matthew Friend sold 2,463 shares of the firm’s stock in a transaction on Wednesday, August 5th. The stock was sold at an average price of $41.60, for a total value of $102,460.80. Following the transaction, the chief financial officer owned 82,165 shares in the company, valued at approximately $3,418,064. This trade represents a 2.91% decrease in their position. Additional details regarding this sale are available in the official SEC disclosure. The transaction was executed under a pre-arranged Rule 10b5-1 trading plan. In the last ninety days, insiders have sold 14,974 shares of company stock valued at $600,126. 1.10% of the stock is currently owned by corporate insiders.
Analyst Ratings Changes A number of equities research analysts have recently issued reports on the company. HSBC dropped their price objective on NIKE from $48.00 to $40.00 and set a “hold” rating on the stock in a research note on Monday, September 28th. UBS Group reissued a “neutral” rating and issued a $34.00 target price (down from $42.00) on shares of NIKE in a research note on Friday. Morgan Stanley set a $27.00 target price on shares of NIKE and gave the stock an “underweight” rating in a report on Friday. Zacks Research cut shares of NIKE from a “hold” rating to a “strong sell” rating in a research note on Thursday. Finally, Telsey Advisory Group set a $35.00 price objective on shares of NIKE and gave the company a “market perform” rating in a research report on Friday. One equities research analyst has rated the stock with a Strong Buy rating, eight have issued a Buy rating, twenty-two have assigned a Hold rating and eight have assigned a Sell rating to the company. According to MarketBeat, the company presently has a consensus rating of “Hold” and an average price target of $41.80.
View Our Latest Research Report on NKE
Key Headlines Impacting NIKE Here are the key news stories impacting NIKE this week:
Positive Sentiment: NIKE’s strong balance sheet, debt reduction and liquidity provide financial flexibility during the restructuring and could support a longer-term recovery. A small number of analysts remain bullish, including Freedom Broker, which upgraded the shares to “Buy.” Could Nike’s Brutal Sell-Off Finally Be Running Out of Steam? Neutral Sentiment: NIKE beat fiscal first-quarter earnings expectations, reporting $0.48 per share versus the $0.43 consensus, but revenue fell short of estimates at $11.21 billion and declined 4.3% year over year. The company also announced restructuring actions expected to include layoffs, making the potential benefits uncertain. Is Buying Nike Stock Now a Brilliant Move or a Disaster Waiting to Happen? Negative Sentiment: Management expects fiscal 2027 revenue to decline by a high-single-digit percentage, signaling that the recovery will take longer than anticipated. China sales dropped 26%, while core brands, inventory levels and broader demand remain under pressure. Nike’s Earnings Are a Disaster Negative Sentiment: Analyst sentiment has deteriorated, with Williams Trading cutting NIKE to “Hold” and JPMorgan, Citi, BTIG and Stifel lowering expectations or price targets. Investors are also questioning valuation and dividend sustainability because projected earnings are falling and free cash flow may not fully cover distributions. NIKE Cut to Hold at Williams Trading About NIKE (Free Report)
NIKE, Inc is a global sportswear company that designs, develops, markets and sells athletic footwear, apparel, equipment, accessories and related services. Its products are marketed under the NIKE, Jordan and Converse brands and are used across a broad range of sports and lifestyle activities, including running, basketball, football, training and outdoor pursuits.
The company distributes its products through a combination of wholesale partners, NIKE-owned retail stores and digital platforms.
Further Reading Five stocks we like better than NIKE A Manufacturing Surprise Could Be a Big Win for These 2 Companies What a $1 Billion Chip Deal Says About Amazon’s AI Ambitions 3 Stocks Benefiting From AI Demand Just Announced Major Buybacks Insiders Are Selling These 3 Stocks, Should You?
Receive News & Ratings for NIKE Daily - Enter your email address below to receive a concise daily summary of the latest news and analysts' ratings for NIKE and related companies with MarketBeat.com's FREE daily email newsletter.
NIKE očekává, že program Pace přinese do fiskálního roku 2031 kumulativní úspory přibližně 2,5 mld. USD, přesto ve fiskálním roce 2027 čeká pokles tržeb o vysoké jednociferné procento.
Key Takeaways NIKE expects Pace to deliver about $2.5B in cumulative savings through fiscal 2031.NKE is cutting less productive spending while increasing investments in demand creation.NIKE expects fiscal 2027 revenues to fall in high single digits as it adjusts key businesses. NIKE, Inc. (NKE - Free Report) is focused on streamlining its cost structure while safeguarding investments in product innovation, marketing and brand development to boost sales and strengthen market position. The company’s newly announced Pace program is central to this strategy.
NIKE expects the Pace initiative to generate approximately $2.5 billion in cumulative savings through fiscal 2031, primarily by streamlining its organization, modernizing the supply chain, simplifying decision-making and improving productivity. The program is expected to incur about $1 billion in pre-tax charges, in addition to roughly $300 million of severance costs recorded in fiscal 2026.
Simultaneously, NIKE continues to prioritize growth-oriented investments rather than broadly cutting spending. During the first quarter of fiscal 2027, selling and administrative expenses declined 3% year over year, while demand-creation spending increased 5%, reflecting higher investments around major sporting events. This indicates that NIKE is taking a more targeted approach to cost management, reducing spending in less productive areas while redirecting resources toward initiatives that can enhance consumer engagement, strengthen brand momentum and support sustainable long-term growth.
However, the company faces a difficult near-term tradeoff. NIKE expects fiscal 2027 revenues to decline in high single digits. NKE is making deliberate portfolio adjustments, particularly across NIKE Sportswear, the Jordan Brand and Greater China, to strengthen the health of these businesses over the long term. The company also plans to reduce excess supply in key areas of the marketplace, with the aim of creating a healthy marketplace and supporting stronger full-price sales.
Overall, NIKE’s strategy appears sound, but successful execution will be crucial. The company must reduce structural costs without undermining its innovation and marketing capabilities, allowing more resources to be directed toward products, athletes, sports and consumer experiences that can support sustainable long-term growth.
NKE’s Peerslululemon athletica inc. (LULU - Free Report) is refocusing its growth strategy on product creation, product activation and enterprise enablement, with a near-term focus on restoring full-price sales growth while strengthening the brand for sustainable long-term growth. LULU is putting greater emphasis on product newness, technical performance and innovation. lululemon is leveraging its innovation platform and expanding beyond traditional yoga and core categories.
adidas AG’s (ADDYY - Free Report) innovation strategy is centered on athlete-led product development, advanced technologies, local consumer insights and a combination of performance innovation with lifestyle appeal. adidas also remains focused on cost discipline and operating efficiency, managing its overall cost base while leveraging sales growth. ADDYY is pursuing a broad-based growth strategy centered on product innovation, performance and lifestyle relevance.
NKE’S Price Performance, Valuation and EstimatesShares of NIKE have lost 21.6% in the past six months against the industry’s decline of 16.9%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
From a valuation standpoint, NKE trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 20.09X compared with the industry’s average of 17.31X.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NKE’s fiscal 2027 and fiscal 2028 earnings implies year-over-year growth of 1.3% and 32.6%, respectively. The company’s EPS estimate for fiscal 2027 and fiscal 2028 has moved south in the past 30 days.
Nike ve 1. čtvrtletí fiskálního roku 2026 vykázala pokles tržeb o 4,2 % na 11,2 miliardy USD a zklamala odhady. Firma zároveň očekává vysoký jednociferný pokles tržeb a výrazně slabší upravený zisk.
This is a fair market value price provided by Massive. Learn more.
$31.97▼
$74.784.84%
16.29
$42.12
Nike NYSE: NKE looks like a good buy primarily for technical reasons. A prolonged sell-off trimmed more than 80% off the stock price over five years, leaving it at an extreme low, looking oversold and overextended.
The stock recently capitulated after earnings results for its Q1 fiscal year 2027 (FY2027) were released. The move, accompanied by high volume, suggests the downtrend is over, and a rebound is imminent, needing only a catalyst to drive it. The risk, however, is that Nike’s sell-off is still underway and its share price could fall even further.
Get NIKE alerts:
Analysts' responses to the release underscore the risk. RBC Capital Markets analyst Piral Dadhania summed it up, commenting that "things are going to get worse before they get better” for Nike. While the consensus continues to forecast upside for the stock, it is a lagging metric, with the revision trend downward, leading to the low end in the low-$20 range. This is a $10-per-share risk, about 30%, for investors, with no guarantee of a price floor.
Mixed Results and Weak Guidance Send Nike to Fresh LowsNike struggled in Q1 FY2027, with revenue falling by 4.2% to $11.2 billion and missing the consensus estimate. While Nike showed some strengths, weaknesses in its core shoe business and in its China growth engine offset them.
Regionally, North America grew 2%, while Europe, Middle East & Africa contracted 5%, Asia Pacific & Latin America contracted 2%, and Greater China contracted 22%. Segmentally, results were mixed across regions but generally down, with Nike down 4% and Converse down 28%. Nike Direct, the direct-to-consumer channel, contracted 8%, driven by a 13% decline in digital, a channel that had driven growth for other brands.
Margin news was good, but not good enough to offset the quarterly weakness and full-year guidance. The company improved its gross and operating margins, driving better-than-expected earnings despite the top-line miss; however, these improvements aren’t enough to cover the dividend and capital expenditures. The company has already halted buybacks; the risk now is to the dividend, which may be cut to preserve cash flow and capital while the turnaround strategy progresses.
Guidance was weak, very weak. The company forecasts a high-single-digit revenue decline and adjusted earnings well below MarketBeat’s reported consensus. Worse, the guidance may be overly optimistic, as results lag industry trends.
Meanwhile, competition from companies such as On Holdings NYSE: ON is strengthening. ON Holding's strength lies in its product innovation and lifestyle appeal.
Nike Strengthens Its Balance SheetNike’s balance sheet offers a reason to buy this stock, or at least keep it on the watch list as it works toward a bottom. While fiscal Q1 cash flow was negative, the company is a cash-flow machine, and the balance sheet reflects that. Trailing 12-month activity includes a massive debt reduction of about 26%, enabling equity gains and improved shareholder leverage if the business recovers. Other highlights include nearly $7 billion in cash, a net cash position, and a 0.38x debt-to-equity ratio.
95th Percentile
Hold
24.3% Upside
Bearish
Strong
-0.15 Selling Shares
45.21%
See Full Analysis
Nike’s biggest risk this year is how long the slump lasts and its impact on cash flow. While the company can sustain dividend payments with its balance sheet, it can’t do so forever, putting management in a tough spot. Cutting or suspending payments will preserve capital and help Nike return to growth, but will negatively affect market sentiment. The question is whether the market has fully priced in the possibility, and that is unlikely.
Institutional activity could be the deciding factor on Nike’s bottom. The group reflects long-term optimism, owning more than 60% of the shares, but they haven't been accumulating in 2026. MarketBeat data shows very light activity, suggesting the group is waiting to see what happens next.
Average investors get the timing of Nike’s turnaround wrong. The time-to-market is long, with CEO Elliot Hill explicitly saying spring 2027 is when the first of the newly revamped product lines will hit shelves. That makes Q2 reporting the first true catalyst that could put this market in a buying posture. Meanwhile, more nimble competitors are successfully pushing next-gen shoe technology and the accessories to go with it. This marks a structural loss of share that Nike will struggle to regain, if it can.
The bulls get it right that Nike has unmatched global scale, athlete, and team support. If it can regain traction, the rebound could be sharp, and turnaround efforts are paving the way. They include repairing damaged wholesale ties, reinvigorating core brands like Jordan, and reducing retailer inventory so that new products can reach where consumers spend money.
Should You Invest $1,000 in NIKE Right Now?Before you consider NIKE, you'll want to hear this.
MarketBeat keeps track of Wall Street's top-rated and best performing research analysts and the stocks they recommend to their clients on a daily basis. MarketBeat has identified the five stocks that top analysts are quietly whispering to their clients to buy now before the broader market catches on... and NIKE wasn't on the list.
While NIKE currently has a Hold rating among analysts, top-rated analysts believe these five stocks are better buys.
View The Five Stocks Here
Learn the basics of options trading and how to use them to boost returns and manage risk with this free report from MarketBeat. Click the link below to get your free copy.
Get This Free Report
Continue following MarketBeat
Add MarketBeat as your preferred source on Google to see our latest stories in your feed.
Nike (NYSE: NKE) stock has received a rare Wall Street upgrade despite mounting pressure on the athletic apparel giant following its latest quarterly earnings report.
In this case, Freedom Broker upgraded Nike shares from ‘Sell’ to ‘Buy’ on October 2 while lowering its price target to $51 from $54. Based on Nike’s share price of $33.59, the new target implies a potential upside of roughly 52%.
The upgrade comes at a challenging time for Nike. The stock is down about 53% over the past year, making it one of the worst-performing large-cap consumer stocks during the period.
According to Freedom Broker, the upgrade reflects confidence in Nike’s long-term turnaround strategy despite weak near-term fundamentals.
The analyst pointed to the company’s newly launched Pace transformation program, which aims to simplify operations, improve productivity, and accelerate Nike’s Sport Offense strategy. Management expects the initiative to generate approximately $2.5 billion in cumulative savings through fiscal 2031.
Freedom Broker acknowledged that Nike faces a multi-year restructuring effort across its Sportswear division, Jordan Brand, and Greater China business. However, the firm believes the turnaround potential outweighs the current challenges, leading to the rating upgrade.
Wall Street cautious on NKE stock Meanwhile, TradingView data shows the Wall Street consensus analyst price target for Nike stands at $37.78, representing an upside of about 11.5% from current levels.
Among 43 analysts tracked, the stock currently carries a neutral consensus rating, with most analysts maintaining hold recommendations.
Revenue fell 4% year over year to $11.2 billion, missing analyst expectations, while sales in Greater China declined sharply. Weakness also persisted across Sportswear, Jordan Brand, and the Europe, Middle East and Africa region.
At the same time, adjusted earnings per share came in at $0.48, ahead of some Wall Street estimates, while gross margin expanded 60 basis points to 42.8%, helped by lower warehousing and logistics costs.
Nike also reported stronger momentum in performance-focused categories such as running and football, areas management has identified as key growth drivers under its Sport Offense strategy.
Nike lowers expectations for fiscal 2027 Despite the analyst upgrade, Nike’s outlook remains subdued. The company expects fiscal 2027 revenue to decline at a high-single-digit rate, while adjusted diluted earnings per share are projected between $1.15 and $1.35, excluding restructuring-related expenses.
Chief Executive Elliott Hill has indicated that the company continues to work through excess inventory issues and brand repositioning efforts, particularly in lifestyle products and Greater China.
Nike v 1. čtvrtletí utržila 11,2 miliardy USD, meziročně o 4 % méně, a akcie klesly o 5,8 % na 33,10 USD. Firma záměrně omezuje prodeje a čeká tlak na výnosy i ziskovost.
Nike is deliberately shrinking itself, slashing sales of its most iconic products and retreating from entire markets. Whether that painful gamble rebuilds the brand or just accelerates the decline is the question every shareholder now faces.
This post may contain links from our sponsors and affiliates, and Flywheel Publishing may receive compensation for actions taken through them.
Per CFO Dave Denton, Nike (NYSE:NKE | NKE Price Prediction) reported first-quarter revenue of $11.2 billion, down 4%, with gross margin of 42.8%, up 60 basis points, and EPS of $0.48. Shares fell 5.8% to $33.10, down 47.7% year to date and 75.5% over five years. The decline reflects Nike’s plan to get smaller. Denton, new to the role, also delivered the full-year outlook.
Three Cuts Nike Chose to Make Dunk The Dunk is a low-top basketball shoe that became a lifestyle sneaker. CEO Elliott Hill said Nike reduced Dunk revenue by nearly 50% on purpose, creating a roughly $200 million drag in Sportswear. Pulling volume restores full prices because when popular shoes sit on every shelf, retailers discount them.
Jordan Retro Hill said, “We’re going to get back to leading the scarcity model that we created. Simply put, we’ve been oversupplying our iconic retro product, asking it to do too much.”
He also said Jordan made up 13% of Nike’s global business, with revenue down by the mid-teens. Rare shoes command premium prices. “When consumers see the Jumpman, it should feel special. It should feel earned,” said Hill.
Greater China Greater China revenue fell 26%, according to Nike. Hill called the digital marketplace “too broad. It wasn’t differentiated, and it had become promotional.” Nike is cutting back to official stores on Tmall, JD, and Douyin and its own app, expecting continued pressure on revenue and profitability in the near term.
Why the Growing Business Can’t Cover the Gap Yet Hill said Nike’s performance business grew by high single digits on a $16 billion base, with gains across running, football, training, basketball, tennis, and golf. Yet he acknowledged the limit: “Our Nike performance business is not yet large enough to offset the pressure we’re seeing in Nike Sportswear, Jordan brand, and Greater China.”
Sportswear made up just under half of revenue and fell by low double digits, Hill said. Running demand is strong: On Holding (NYSE:ONON) grew quarterly revenue 13.5% year over year. Softness is spreading across the category. A CNBC Fast Money panelist noted “Lululemon is going through the same thing” as Lululemon (NASDAQ:LULU) works through its own slowdown.
What Shareholders Are Being Asked to Accept “While these decisions can dampen near-term top line results, our focus is on improving the quality of revenue and creating a more sustainable foundation for long-term growth,” said Hill.
Denton guided fiscal 2027 revenue to decline in the high single-digit range, with operating profit falling by a greater percentage than revenue. Adjusted EPS is set at $1.15 to $1.35 versus GAAP EPS of $2.10 in fiscal 2026. Pain may extend into fiscal 2028. Most of the Pace program’s $2.5 billion in savings arrives in fiscal years 29 and 30.
Verdict: A Credible Plan That Still Needs a Floor The strategy is credible because Nike’s results back it up. Where management restored discipline, products responded: Air Force One is a “stable, full-price business,” and the Shanghai House of Innovation has posted 10 consecutive months of growth. The risk is that cutting revenue has no natural stopping point, and the timeline already extends into fiscal 2028.
The test is Nike’s November investor day. A five-year framework with a specific, dated return to growth for Sportswear, Jordan, and China would strengthen the recovery case. Longer timelines would suggest a strategy of demolition without a clear rebuilding endpoint.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Nike varuje, že ve fiskálním roce 2027 čeká vysoký jednociferný pokles tržeb, a akcie v pátek spadly o 5,6 %. Firma zároveň oznámila propouštění a program hrubých úspor nákladů za 2,5 miliardy USD do fiskálního roku 2031.
Nike Inc (NYSE:NKE, XETRA:NKE)'s forecast for a high-single-digit sales decline in fiscal 2027 has split analysts on whether its turnaround is working.
Nike shares fell 5.6% Friday after the company missed revenue targets in its first-quarter report Thursday.
Adding insult to injury, the famed shoemaker said it will conduct layoffs next year.
The stock has lost more than half its value over the past year, and the news dampened the launch of Caitlin Clark's new shoe, which sold out in just over an hour.
Nike guided fiscal 2027 earnings per share to $1.15 to $1.35, well below the $1.67 consensus, with pressure from Sportswear, Jordan Brand and Greater China expected to extend into fiscal 2028.
Sportswear, about half of first-quarter sales, declined low double digits, while Jordan Brand, 13% of sales, fell mid-teens. Greater China sales dropped 26% in constant currency, and management expects trends to worsen. Nike also announced a $2.5 billion gross cost savings program through fiscal 2031 and reaffirmed its dividend.
Bank of America reiterated its Underperform rating and cut its price objective to $24 from $30.
“Visibility on a sales turnaround remains limited,” analysts wrote.
“Despite another significant reduction to our estimates, we continue to see downside risk to the premium multiple until the timing of a revenue inflection becomes clearer.”
UBS said it still sees no good entry point, with the stock at about 28 times its fiscal 2027 EPS estimate.
The firm outlined three reasons the downward earnings revision cycle may not be over: reduced discounting could hurt unit demand more than expected, the Sportswear and Jordan reset could weigh on sales into fiscal 2028, and slower sales could pressure margins further. It trimmed its fiscal 2027 to 2029 EPS estimates by 4% to 6%.
Jefferies was more constructive, saying the quarter showed the turnaround progressing. Performance rose at a high single-digit rate, North America grew 2%, gross margin expanded 60 basis points and inventories fell about 3%.
Analysts described new CFO Dave Denton's guidance as an effort to "clear the deck early." Its $1.50 fiscal 2027 EPS estimate is 11% below consensus.
Nike's November Analyst Day is next on the calendar, where the company is expected to detail its $2.5 billion cost savings program and innovation pipeline.
Akcie Nike klesly pod své 52týdenní minimum, když letos odepsaly 51,13 %. Management zároveň čeká ve fiskálním roce 2027 pokles tržeb o vysoké jednociferné procento.
Nike just slipped below its 52-week low while the broader market climbs, but one analyst sees a path to gains that would leave the rest of Wall Street stunned. The question is whether the turnaround math actually works.
This post may contain links from our sponsors and affiliates, and Flywheel Publishing may receive compensation for actions taken through them.
Nike (NYSE:NKE | NKE Price Prediction) currently trades at $35.10. The average analyst price target stands at $45.63, which implies 30% upside.
Nike is the world’s largest athletic footwear and apparel supplier, now going through a turnaround under CEO Elliott Hill. Piper Sandler analyst Abbie Zvejnieks rates the stock Overweight. Her $75.00 target implies more than 113% upside, far above Wall Street’s consensus.
The gap between consensus and Piper’s target reflects the core debate: one side views a fallen blue chip near its bottom; the other sees a restructuring requiring more time and cost than bulls expect.
A Shrinking Sales Outlook and a China Reset Sent Nike to a 52-Week Low Nike’s guidance did the most damage. Management expects fiscal 2027 revenue to fall by a high-single-digit percentage, with adjusted EPS of $1.15 to $1.35 versus fiscal 2026 EPS of $2.10. Shares are down 43.44% year to date.
First-quarter revenue fell 4.3% to $11.21 billion, missing the $11.32 billion consensus, though EPS of $0.48 beat the $0.44 estimate. Greater China revenue dropped 22%, Converse fell 28%, and Jordan Brand declined by a mid-teens percentage. Sportswear revenue fell by a low-double-digit percentage after Nike cut Dunk revenue by nearly 50%. Management warned that China “actually gets worse from a revenue perspective for the balance of this year.”
While the sector is weak, Nike is pulling back supply and clearing inventory, making much of this decline company-specific.
Piper Sandler’s $75 Case Rests on Cost Cuts and a Performance Comeback Piper’s bull case rests on three points:
Cost cuts that free up $600 million to $1 billion in yearly savings, adding 130 to 200 basis points to operating margin. A wholesale restructuring that wins back shelf space at retailers. New running and performance shoes that take back share from challenger brands. Jefferies has also stayed bullish, with a target around the $75 level.
Nike’s Pace restructuring targets about $2.5 billion in total savings through fiscal 2031, with most coming in fiscal 2029 and 2030. Performance business grew by a high-single-digit percentage and running by double digits. Hill called that “a proof point” for the strategy. Nike plans to share a long-term financial framework at its November investor day.
The Street remains largely conservative. Of 39 analysts, one rates Nike a Strong Buy, 10 a Buy, 25 a Hold, one a Sell, and two a Strong Sell. Management also said pain will “bleed in a little bit into fiscal 28,” so recovery will take time.
Deckers Outdoor (NYSE:DECK) has the largest consensus upside in the group, which also includes Lululemon Athletica (NASDAQ:LULU).
Nike Slips Below Its 52-Week Low as the S&P 500 Climbs At $35.10, Nike stands just under its $35.16 52-week low and far below its $72.39 high. The $45.63 consensus target from 39 analysts implies 30% upside.
Shares fell 7.92% over the past month and 51.13% over the past year, while the S&P 500 gained 12.04% year to date and 14.3% over the past year. Nike trades at about 21 times forward earnings and pays a $0.410 quarterly dividend that management says it can support “under all scenarios.”
Nike’s Recovery Case Is Credible, but $75 Is Years Away Upside would build if the November investor day lays out a credible path to higher margins, if Pace savings arrive on schedule, and if performance growth offsets cuts in Sportswear and Jordan. The road to $75 runs through wider margins on steady sales.
Risks would mount if China drops beyond fiscal 2027, if Converse keeps shrinking, or if Dunk and Jordan cutbacks leave a gap that performance products can’t fill. Adjusted EPS is guided to $1.15 to $1.35, leaving little room for a guidance cut.
I lean cautiously bullish. The 30% consensus upside looks reachable if Pace delivers. The dividend is backed by $8.4 billion in cash and short-term investments. Piper’s $75 target is the best case, requiring nearly everything to go right.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
NIKE, Inc. (NKE) Q1 2027 Earnings Call October 1, 2026 5:00 PM EDT
Company Participants
Paul Trussell - VP & Treasurer
Elliott Hill - CEO, President & Director
David Denton - Executive VP, CFO, Interim Corporate Controller & Principal Accounting Officer
Conference Call Participants
Simeon Siegel - Guggenheim Securities, LLC, Research Division
Brooke Roach - Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., Research Division
Jay Sole - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division
Robert Drbul - BTIG, LLC, Research Division
Samuel Poser - Williams Trading, LLC, Research Division
Alexandra Straton - Morgan Stanley, Research Division
Matthew Boss - JPMorgan Chase & Co, Research Division
Michael Binetti - Evercore ISI Institutional Equities, Research Division
Presentation
Operator
Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to NIKE, Inc.'s First Quarter Fiscal 2027 Conference Call. For those who want to reference today's press release, you'll find it at investors.nike.com.
Leading today's call is Paul Trussell, VP of Corporate Finance and Treasurer. I'd now like to turn the call over to Paul Trussell.
Paul Trussell
VP & Treasurer
Thank you, operator. Hello, everyone, and thank you for joining us today to discuss NIKE, Inc.'s First Quarter Fiscal 2027 results. Joining us on today's call will be NIKE, Inc. President and CEO, Elliott Hill; and CFO, Dave Denton.
Before we begin, let me remind you that participants on this call will make forward-looking statements based on current expectations, and those statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially. These risks and uncertainties are detailed in NIKE's reports filed with the SEC. In addition, participants may discuss non-GAAP financial measures and nonpublic financial and statistical information. Please refer to NIKE's earnings press release or NIKE's website, investors.nike.com, for comparable GAAP measures and quantitative reconciliations.
All growth comparisons on the call today are presented on a year-over-year basis and are currency neutral unless
Nike deepened its restructuring under CEO Elliott Hill on Thursday, announcing a plan to cut more jobs and shake up its global business divisions after the struggling sportswear giant projected a surprisingly steep drop in full-year revenue.
The company has been working to revive growth during the first two years of Hill’s tenure by refocusing on key sports such as running and by rebuilding relationships with wholesale retailers.
But the weaker-than-expected forecast underscored that Nike’s challenges will likely persistent for at least several more quarters — especially in China, where sales tumbled 26% on a constant-currency basis in the first quarter — adding to investor unease about the pace of Hill’s turnaround.
Nike deepened its restructuring under CEO Elliott Hill on Thursday, announcing a plan to cut more jobs and shake up its global business divisions. Getty Images Nike’s woes have in large part stemmed from a failure to release enough new, compelling products, analysts have said, leading to an uptick in promotions and discounts. Its shares fell 4% in extended trading.
The company, which also missed analysts’ expectations for first-quarter revenue, unveiled changes to its operating model, including job cuts and a move to three geographic regions — Americas, Asia Pacific and Greater China, and EMEA — instead of four. It plans to open a new campus in India “with strong capabilities and access to talent.”
Nike said the company does not yet know the number or roles that will be cut under the restructuring. Its will begin notifying employees in 2027.
The program, building on its previously announced restructuring push, which also included job cuts, is expected to deliver about $2.5 billion in savings through fiscal 2031.
Nike expects its revenue to decline in high-single digits in fiscal 2027. The company earlier forecast revenue to decline by a low-to-mid-single-digit percentage in the first half of fiscal 2027.
Nike’s woes have in large part stemmed from a failure to release enough new, compelling products, analysts have said, leading to an uptick in promotions and discounts. AFP via Getty Images China sales plummet, again China, historically a profit-driver for Nike, has shown particular weakness in recent quarters as international rivals and domestic sportswear groups gain traction, fueling investor concerns about the company’s turnaround progress.
The region accounts for about 15% of Nike’s annual revenue and is its third-largest market after North America and Europe, the Middle East and Africa.
Sales in China have fallen for nine consecutive quarters.
The company recently said starting in January, it would pull online sales rights from some of its biggest retail partners in China — a high-stakes bet that tighter control over pricing and distribution can revive its fortunes.
“Nike does not have a channel problem in China, but rather a product problem,” BNP Paribas senior analyst Laurent Vasilescu has said in a research note. Getty Images But analysts have questioned whether the abrupt measures, though likely to help Nike address rampant discounting, will convince Chinese consumers that they want what Nike is selling.
“Nike does not have a channel problem in China, but rather a product problem,” BNP Paribas senior analyst Laurent Vasilescu has said in a research note, adding that he was surprised by the company’s short timeframe to shut down online wholesale in China.
S&P Dow Jones Indices removed Nike from the S&P 100 in September as part of a quarterly rebalancing, after 18 years in the index of blue-chip companies.
The sportswear giant posted sales of $11.2 billion for the first quarter, compared with analysts’ average estimate of $11.32 billion, according to data compiled by LSEG.
Its gross margin, however, rose 60 basis points to 42.8% in the quarter ended August 31, helped by lower warehousing and logistics costs.
Nike vstupuje do FY27 se zhoršujícími se základy: tržby klesají, Čína spadla o 22 % a Converse o 28 %. Management navíc čeká celoroční pokles tržeb ve vysokých jednociferných procentech.
SummaryNike enters FY27 with worsening fundamentals: revenue shrinking, China collapsing, wholesale relying on costly retailer working capital, and margins at risk despite temporary logistics relief.Q1 FY27 shows accelerating deterioration: China is down 22%, Converse is down 28%, EPS reset 25% below expectations, and management is guiding high‑single‑digit revenue declines for the full year.Valuation remains stretched at 27x guided EPS, dividend payout hits 131%, $2B debt maturity looms, and multiple compression points to a clear path toward $30 or even $25.Looking for a helping hand in the market? Members of iREIT®+HOYA Capital get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate. Learn More » ozgurdonmaz/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images
Introduction Three months ago, I wrote that at a share price of $40 for Nike (NKE) still wasn't cheap. Entering its earnings report, the stock was down 15% to $35.21, its 52-week low. While the brand is surely valuable, I pointed out that the
8.48K Followers
Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.
Nike (NKE - Free Report) came out with quarterly earnings of $0.48 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.43 per share. This compares to earnings of $0.49 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items.
This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of +11.63%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this athletic apparel maker would post earnings of $0.11 per share when it actually produced earnings of $0.2, delivering a surprise of +81.82%.
Over the last four quarters, the company has surpassed consensus EPS estimates four times.
Nike, which belongs to the Zacks Shoes and Retail Apparel industry, posted revenues of $11.21 billion for the quarter ended August 2026, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.65%. This compares to year-ago revenues of $11.72 billion. The company has topped consensus revenue estimates three times over the last four quarters.
The sustainability of the stock's immediate price movement based on the recently-released numbers and future earnings expectations will mostly depend on management's commentary on the earnings call.
Nike shares have lost about 44.4% since the beginning of the year versus the S&P 500's gain of 11.8%.
What's Next for Nike?While Nike has underperformed the market so far this year, the question that comes to investors' minds is: what's next for the stock?
There are no easy answers to this key question, but one reliable measure that can help investors address this is the company's earnings outlook. Not only does this include current consensus earnings expectations for the coming quarter(s), but also how these expectations have changed lately.
Empirical research shows a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions. Investors can track such revisions by themselves or rely on a tried-and-tested rating tool like the Zacks Rank, which has an impressive track record of harnessing the power of earnings estimate revisions.
Ahead of this earnings release, the estimate revisions trend for Nike was unfavorable. While the magnitude and direction of estimate revisions could change following the company's just-released earnings report, the current status translates into a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) for the stock. So, the shares are expected to underperform the market in the near future. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
It will be interesting to see how estimates for the coming quarters and the current fiscal year change in the days ahead. The current consensus EPS estimate is $0.49 on $11.97 billion in revenues for the coming quarter and $1.61 on $45.62 billion in revenues for the current fiscal year.
Investors should be mindful of the fact that the outlook for the industry can have a material impact on the performance of the stock as well. In terms of the Zacks Industry Rank, Shoes and Retail Apparel is currently in the bottom 15% of the 250 plus Zacks industries. Our research shows that the top 50% of the Zacks-ranked industries outperform the bottom 50% by a factor of more than 2 to 1.
Carter's (CRI - Free Report) , another stock in the same industry, has yet to report results for the quarter ended September 2026.
This maker of children's apparel and accessories is expected to post quarterly earnings of $0.85 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of +14.9%. The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has remained unchanged over the last 30 days.
Carter's' revenues are expected to be $750.2 million, down 1% from the year-ago quarter.
Nike oznámila slabší tržby za čtvrtletí končící 31. srpna, když 11,2 miliardy USD zaostaly za odhadem analytiků 11,32 miliardy USD. Firma zároveň plánuje další změny provozního modelu a propouštění.
Nike (NKE.N) deepened its turnaround under CEO Elliott Hill, announcing a plan to shake up its operating model and cut more jobs after the struggling sportswear giant missed analysts' expectations for quarterly revenue on Thursday.
Like many US retailers, Nike is grappling with cautious consumer spending in the face of stubborn inflation. But its woes have largely stemmed from strategic missteps and a failure to release enough new, compelling products, analysts have said, leading to an uptick in promotions and discounts. Its shares fell 4% in extended trading.
The company announced a new program to change its operating model, which includes efforts to modernize its supply chain and further reduce roles to save costs.
The program, building on its previously announced restructuring push, which also included job cuts, is expected to deliver about $2.5 billion in savings through fiscal 2031.
Nike expects its revenue to decline in high-single digits in fiscal 2027. The company earlier forecast revenue to decline by a low-to-mid-single-digit percentage in the first half of fiscal 2027.
Greater China remains a weak spot for Nike, while the company also faces challenges in Europe
S&P Dow Jones Indices removed Nike from the S&P 100 (.OEX) in September as part of a quarterly rebalancing, after 18 years in the index of blue-chip companies.
The sportswear giant posted sales of $11.2 billion for the first quarter, compared with analysts' average estimate of $11.32 billion, according to data compiled by LSEG.
Its gross margin, however, rose 60 basis points to 42.8% in the quarter ended August 31, helped by lower warehousing and logistics costs.
Nike v Číně dává větší kontrolu nad produkty místnímu týmu a omezuje online prodej, aby zrychlila růst proti domácím rivalům. Tržby v Greater China klesly na 5,85 miliardy USD a provozní zisk na 1,28 miliardy USD.
Nike Inc’s (NYSE:NKE) China turnaround is starting to look less like a marketing reset and more like a redesign of how the company operates. The sportswear giant is giving its China team more control over products, cutting thousands of online distribution points and trying to move at the speed of local rivals — just as investors wait for its Oct. 1 earnings report.
China Became A Margin ProblemThe urgency is visible in the numbers. Nike’s Greater China revenue fell to $5.85 billion in fiscal 2026, down from $7.55 billion two years earlier. Segment operating profit fell even faster, from $2.31 billion in fiscal 2024 to $1.28 billion in fiscal 2026.
Nike has also lost ground to domestic names such as Anta Sports and Li Ning as Chinese consumers increasingly gravitate toward brands that can respond faster to local sports trends and preferences. Reuters reported in July that Nike had suffered eight consecutive quarters of declining China sales before announcing its latest distribution overhaul.
That helps explain why Nike’s latest strategy is not simply "sell more shoes." The company is trying to change how those shoes are conceived, priced and presented.
Read Next
Nike Wants China to Move FasterIn July, Nike said partner-operated online storefronts in mainland China would stop selling most Nike products beginning January 2027. The company plans to concentrate digital sales on Nike.com.cn, its app and official flagship stores on Tmall, JD.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:JD) and Douyin.
Cathy Sparks, Nike’s vice president and general manager for Greater China, has also been given a bigger mandate on product development. Nike appointed its first Greater China vice president of local product creation, with the team tasked with designing, developing and making products in China for Chinese consumers.
That is the more interesting part of the turnaround.
Sparks told China Daily that Nike has doubled the size of its local product-creation team, while the company plans to launch its first apparel collection created, designed and developed entirely in China during the coming holiday season. She described the goal as getting products to consumers faster and bringing the voice of the Chinese athlete into Nike’s global product engine.
Nike is also leaning into categories where local participation is growing. Running has emerged as a particularly important growth area, while basketball, soccer and tennis remain key sports for the China business.
The Earnings Test Is NextThe strategy carries a near-term cost. Nike is removing third-party online sellers even though they account for a significant portion of China sales, and analysts expect Greater China revenue to fall 12.6% to about $1.3 billion in fiscal Q1 2027.
That makes the Oct. 1 earnings report more than another quarterly update. Investors will be looking for evidence that Nike’s China reset is beginning to improve demand, pricing and consumer engagement — particularly as the company prepares to resume longer-term guidance at its Nov. 16-17 Investor Day.
For NKE, the bigger question is whether acting more like a local brand can restore the global brand’s relevance in China — without sacrificing the scale and economics that made the market so valuable in the first place.
Nike čelí před výsledky za 1. fiskální čtvrtletí 1. října opatrnější Wall Street, protože několik analytiků snížilo cílové ceny. RBC varuje, že větší riziko je ve výhledu než v samotných výsledcích.
Nike Inc. (NYSE:NKE) faces a more cautious Wall Street setup ahead of its fiscal first-quarter earnings report on Oct. 1, with several analysts cutting their price forecasts in recent days.
Nike carries a consensus Hold rating, with an average price forecast of $43.75.
Recent analyst actions include RBC Capital cutting its price forecast to $40 from $45 while maintaining a Sector Perform rating. Deutsche Bank lowered its forecast to $37 from $45 and kept a Hold rating, while Piper Sandler cut its forecast to $38 from $45 and maintained a Neutral rating.
Evercore ISI lowered its forecast to $34 from $46 with an In Line rating. Bank of America Securities downgraded Nike to Underperform and cut its forecast to $30 from $47.
Oppenheimer lowered its forecast to $52 from $60 while maintaining an Outperform rating, while Barclays cut its forecast to $48 from $52 and kept an Overweight rating.
RBC Sees Pressure on Revenue, ChinaRBC Capital Markets warned that the bigger risk may come from the company’s outlook rather than its first-quarter results.
Analyst Piral Dadhania said Nike’s current-quarter guidance is relatively tight, making a first-quarter miss less likely. However, investors will be focused on what management says about the coming quarters.
RBC expects first-quarter revenue of about $11.2 billion, down 4.3% year over year on a reported basis and 4.7% in constant currency. The firm forecasts diluted earnings of 43 cents per share.
The analyst expects North American revenue to fall 1% in constant currency, while Europe, the Middle East and Africa could decline 5%. Greater China remains the biggest pressure point, with RBC forecasting a 15% drop amid elevated inventories and discounting. Nike Direct revenue is expected to fall 8%.
RBC’s first-quarter revenue estimate is about 1% below consensus, while its EBIT forecast is 2% below Wall Street expectations.
RBC also expects Converse revenue to fall 25% in constant currency, saying the brand’s turnaround could take time as Nike rightsizes the business and aligns its cost base with weaker sales.
New CFO Could Reset ExpectationsThe analyst said Nike is making progress against its strategic goals, but the turnaround is taking longer than expected, with weak sell-through and elevated marketplace inventories still weighing on the recovery.
Dadhania said new CFO David Denton could reset expectations ahead of Nike’s capital markets day on Nov. 16-17. RBC also expects second-quarter guidance to point to another mid-single-digit revenue decline, even as gross margin improves.
The firm lowered its fiscal 2027 organic revenue growth forecast to a 3.1% decline from a previous 2% drop. RBC also cut its fiscal 2027 EBIT estimate by 3% and reduced its EPS forecast by 4% to $1.66.
Still, RBC sees some signs of improvement. Nike.com traffic has recovered from a low base, while newer products such as Pegasus Premium and Vomero 18 have generated stronger search interest. However, the analyst said marketplace inventories and promotional activity remain key hurdles to a broader recovery.
Nike Earnings PreviewWall Street expects Nike to report earnings of 44 cents per share, down from 49 cents a year earlier.
Revenue is expected to fall to $11.33 billion from $11.72 billion in the year-ago quarter.
The estimates point to continued pressure on sales and profitability. Investors are likely to focus on gross margins, promotional activity, inventory levels, and management’s outlook.
Nike trades at about 17.1 times earnings, putting more emphasis on whether management can show tangible progress in its turnaround.
Nike Has Recently Beat ExpectationsNike has beaten earnings estimates in each of the past four quarters, with an average EPS surprise of about 54%.
In its most recent quarter, Nike reported earnings of 20 cents per share, beating the 13 cents estimate. Revenue of $10.97 billion also beat the $10.86 billion consensus estimate.
In December 2025, Nike reported earnings of 53 cents per share versus estimates of 38 cents. Revenue of $12.43 billion also beat expectations of $12.22 billion.
The recent track record shows Nike has repeatedly cleared Wall Street’s lowered expectations. However, with revenue and earnings expected to decline again, investors will likely focus on whether any upside comes from improving demand or mainly from cost controls.
NKE Price Action: Nike shares were down 0.18% at $35.77 at the time of publication on Wednesday. The stock is trading near its 52-week low of $35.21, according to Benzinga Pro data.
Nike čeká čtvrtletní hospodářské výsledky po uzavření trhu, zatímco akcie letos klesly o 43,6 % na 13leté minimum. Analytici čekají tržby 11,33 miliardy USD a zisk 44 centů na akcii.
Apparel giant Nike Inc (NYSE:NKE) looks to provide more signs of a turnaround for investors, with shares hitting new 13-year lows recently. The company reports first-quarter financial results Thursday after market close.
Here are the earnings estimates, what experts are saying and key items to watch.
• Nike stock is trading at depressed levels. Where are NKE shares going?
Nike Q1 Earnings EstimatesAnalysts expect Nike to report first-quarter revenue of $11.33 billion, down from $11.72 billion in the first quarter of past year, according to data from Benzinga Pro.
The company has beaten analyst estimates for revenue in seven straight quarters and in eight of the past 10 quarters overall.
Analysts expect Nike to report earnings of 44 cents per share for the first quarter, down from 49 cents per share year-over-year.
The company has beaten analyst estimates for earnings per share in 12 straight quarters.
Read Next
What Experts are SayingThe Nike chart is a "textbook downtrend" lesson that Freedom Capital Markets Chief Market Strategist Jay Woods says she shares with college students.
"The excitement surrounding CEO Elliott Hill and a potential turnaround has faded as the sneaker giant continues to struggle with weak demand, declining digital sales and persistent pressures in China," Woods said in a weekly newsletter.
Woods said investors want evidence of the turnaround with items such as better products, inventory and better wholesale relationships, but haven’t gotten positives yet. The market expert says China sales are still under pressure and show no sign of things changing.
"Brand relevance and profitability will also be in focus."
Woods writes that Nike lost soccer star Kylian Mbappé to rival footwear company On Holding (NYSE:ONON), which could show that younger competitive companies are willing to spend up for athlete endorsements.
The market expert says the stock technicals for Nike remain ugly, but a bright spot is momentum, with RSI showing some bullish divergence.
"Is that enough to signal a bottom? Not yet. But it may be the one thing on this chart giving the bulls something to work with."
Here are recent analyst ratings on Nike stock and their price targets:
RBC Capital: Maintained Sector Perform rating, lowered price target from $45 to $40 Deutsche Bank: Maintained Hold rating, lowered price target from $45 to $37 Piper Sandler: Maintained Neutral rating, lowered price target from $45 to $38 Evercore ISI Group: Maintained In-Line rating, lowered price target from $46 to $34 Key Items to WatchAs mentioned by Woods, items such as inventory, new products and China will be key items that investors and analysts will be watching on Thursday.
Investors may also be looking at sales by region, with North America up 3% year-over-year in the fourth quarter and Asia Pacific and Latin America up 1% year-over-year in the fourth quarter.
Nike Direct was the segment that had year-over-year declines in the fourth quarter, with Nike Brand and wholesale segments up. That could be another area to watch.
The loss of Mbappé likely won’t be covered by management in the prepared remarks, but could come up during the analyst question segment. Look for Nike to highlight its other key athletes and teams under contract.
Ultimately, Nike has been beating analyst estimates for financials, but has no new products or innovation to get investors excited for the turnaround or future growth. Until the company makes an acquisition or announces a major product, shares could be stuck in the downtrend.
Nike Stock Price ActionNike stock is down 0.64% to $35.61 on Wednesday versus a 52-week trading range of $35.22 to $76.97. Nike shares are down 43.6% year-to-date and trade at lows last seen in October 2013.
Nike před výsledky za 1. čtvrtletí čelí sázkám na pokles: opční trh čeká další oslabení akcií po zveřejnění výsledků. Konsensus počítá s EPS 0,44 USD a tržbami 11,34 miliardy USD, obojí meziročně níž.
Nike NKE shares have been a major disappointment for investors in 2026, but the options market believes the company’s upcoming earnings on October 1 is unlikely to offer any significant relief.
Consensus is for NKE to post $0.44 a share of earnings (EPS) on $11.34 billion in revenue, which would represent a year-over-year “decline” across both metrics.
Versus the start of this year, Nike stock is currently down an alarming 80%.
Despite NKE shares’ massive 2026 underperformance, and CEO Elliott Hill’s turnaround efforts, the derivatives market believes they will inch lower after the quarterly print.
The put-to-call ratio on options contracts expiring October 9 sits at 1.16 as of writing, indicating a bearish skew (a reading above 1.00 is typically interpreted as bearish).
And the lower price on those contracts – according to Barchart’s data – is set at $32.91 currently, signaling the footwear giant could lose another 7.74% through the end of next week.
Crucially, the technical setup heading into the earnings even also reinforces the negative sentiment.
Nike is currently trading firmly below its major moving averages (MAs), with an RSI in the mid-30s pointing to significant selling pressure that may drive its stock price lower in the final quarter of 2026.
Options market is pricing in potential weakness in Nike shares because of “persistent” fundamental headwinds that continue to squeeze Nike’s bottom line.
Revenue growth remains stifled by sluggish foot traffic in key international markets – particularly Greater China – alongside weakening global discretionary spending.
Compounding these struggles is margin compression due to aggressive promotional discounting to clear out excess, stale inventory.
Additionally, higher freight expenses, supply chain friction, and stiff competition from agile rivals that are hurting adoption of new line-ups continue to eat into operating margins.
With full-turnaround initiatives under CEO Elliott Hill still early in execution, option traders signal skepticism that the upcoming quarterly print can reverse these entrenched structural hurdles.
Beyond the headline revenue and earnings figures, the trajectory of Nike stock hinges on forward-looking commentary regarding inventory normalization and direct-to-consumer momentum.
Clear evidence that promotional strategies are successfully streamlining stock levels without permanently eroding gross margins will be essential to restoring investor confidence.
Additionally, Wall Street will scrutinize management’s updates on wholesale channel partnerships and product innovation cycles aimed at reclaiming market share.
While near-term derivative positioning reflects caution, any tangible progress on supply chain efficiency or signs of stabilizing wholesale demand could provide the foundation needed for the stock to base and potentially initiate a long-term recovery.
Heading into Q1 earnings, Wall Street rates NKE stock at Hold with a mean price target of about $44.57.
Nike se potýká s oslabeným byznysem: tržby ve fiskálním roce 2026 činily 46,4 miliardy USD a vedení čeká další pokles v roce 2027. Akcie jsou asi 80 % pod maximem a na zhruba 13letém minimu.
Nike (NKE -1.54%) might endorse some of the world's top athletes who are known for winning. However, the business has been on a dreadful losing streak. Shares currently trade 80% off their peak (as of Sept. 25), and they're at a roughly 13-year low.
What's wrong with this consumer discretionary stock?
Image source: The Motley Fool.
From a financial perspective, Nike is stumbling. Its fiscal 2026 (ended May 31) sales totaled $46.4 billion. This marked a 9% decline from exactly three years ago. And the consensus view is that revenue will fall in fiscal 2027.
Management is in the middle of a major turnaround effort that is aiming to reverse some of the shortfalls of the prior leadership team. Current CEO Elliott Hill said progress is taking longer than expected.
The combination of pressured sales, promotional activity, and turnaround investments have resulted in a crushed bottom line. Profit margins have come down notably in recent years.
Premium Feature
Moneyball Superscore
55/100
Today's Change
(
-1.54
%) $
-0.56
Current Price
$
35.83
Nike has had a difficult time rebalancing its distribution strategy to find the right mix between third-party retailers and its own channels. Product innovation has suffered, with a lack of newness that the brand has been known for. Demand in China has weakened considerably. And competition is intense, diverting consumer attention and wallet share away from Nike.
Shares trade at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio that is close to a 17-year low. Investors might find it appealing to add this industry-leading company to their portfolios. But until the fundamentals dramatically improve, it's smart to avoid Nike.
Neil Patel has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Nike. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Nike ve čtvrtek zveřejní výsledky a zároveň uvede první signature model boty Caitlin Clark. Trh sleduje hlavně, zda nový produkt pomůže nastartovat obrat.
Nike's (NKE +1.79%) running business may be on the rebound, but the sportswear giant is definitely limping into its first-quarter earnings report, due out on Thursday.
The stock is trading around decade lows heading into the big reveal, and Wall Street is lowering its expectations for a comeback. Last Friday, Bank of America downgraded the stock to underperform and lowered its price target from $47 to $30 due to downside risks to earnings over the next two years. Three other analysts slashed their price targets on the stock on Monday as well, reflecting Nike's decline over the last few months as hopes for a turnaround get pushed further out.
Nike told investors that gross margin should begin to inflect in the first quarter after years of challenges, as the company moves past tariffs and benefits from streamlining its inventory, but it's clear the broader industry is struggling. Lululemon just posted dismal results in its earnings report earlier this month, and Deckers and On Holdings are trading down significantly from recent highs on slowing growth as well.
Premium Feature
Moneyball Superscore
55/100
Today's Change
(
1.79
%) $
0.64
Current Price
$
36.39
Consumers have been hit hard by inflation and are pulling back on spending in some discretionary categories like apparel and footwear. Additionally, China has become a challenging market for global brands like the ones above. Those issues will only make it harder for Nike to deliver a recovery even if it executes well.
Analysts are expecting the company to report a 3.3% decline in revenue to $11.33 billion and for earnings per share to decline from $0.49 to $0.44.
That arguably creates a low bar for the company to overcome, but it also shows that the business is still declining.
However, there's another Nike event this week that could be the catalyst long-term investors are looking for.
The Caitlin 1. Image source: Nike.
Caitlin Clark's signature shoe is finally droppingAfter years of waiting, Nike is finally releasing Caitlin Clark's first signature shoe.
Clark has brought a new audience to women's basketball and the WNBA, and along the way, has reached a degree of fame that arguably no other women's athlete in a team sport has before her.
Nike won the battle to sign Clark, but has done relatively little to market her since, squandering the buzz she brought with her from college to the WNBA.
However, Clark's shoe is now set to be released on Thursday, the same day as the earnings report, and initial demand could say a lot about Nike's ability to leverage star power and to build a new franchise. The moment seems even more important after Nike lost French soccer star Kylian Mbappe to On earlier this month.
The shoe features interlocking Cs, a personal flourish reminiscent of the "Jumpman" Air Jordan logo, and Nike said the shoe is built "for the speed, range an unpredictability of her game." According to Clark's direction, the shoe achieves a quicker first step, faster step-back, and a faster shot release.
The sneaker release will include an 18-piece apparel collection featuring hoodies, jackets, and t-shirts. Nike is also debuting its new Opticast innovation, a specially design upper part of the shoe that supports lateral quickness.
The Caitlin 1 will retail for $140.
Image source: Nike.
Could the Caitlin 1 spark a turnaround for Nike?Nike's sports empire is vast and sprawling, and there's more than one area that needs improvement.
However, the Caitlin Clark partnership could be uniquely beneficial for Nike. Nike already dominates basketball, giving it much-needed credibility, and the Clark partnership comes up at a time when women's sports are ascendant.
For Nike, Clark has the potential to do for the women's side of the business what Jordan did for the men's side, and her brand is sure to have crossover appeal with men as well.
Look out for Nike's commentary on the shoe launch when it reports earnings. We may have to wait a few weeks to get any kind of numbers on the launch, but some positive news could be just what Nike needs to get going in the right direction.
If the business ever does turn around, there's a lot of upside potential for this blue chip stock, now down 80% from its peak.
Nike Inc (NYSE:NKE, XETRA:NKE) should show continued first-quarter progress as North America and wholesale stabilize, Jefferies wrote, although a slower, more promotional industry backdrop tempers the quarterly outlook.
The broker expects better-positioned inventories to support a cleaner marketplace, with management bringing forward expectations for gross margin expansion to the first quarter.
That follows a fourth-quarter gross margin decline of just 10 basis points excluding tariffs, compared with guidance for a 25 to 75 basis point decline.
Jefferies attributed the better margin performance to lower North American discounts, reserves and cancellations.
Management’s first-quarter guidance calls for a low to mid-single-digit revenue decline.
Jefferies forecasts revenue of $11.5 billion, at the high end of guidance and above consensus of $11.3 billion, alongside earnings per share of $0.48 versus consensus of $0.44.
The broker’s expected earnings beat is expense-led, with selling, general and administrative costs modeled at 34.5% of sales versus consensus of 35.3%.
That supports a projected EBIT margin of 7.6%, compared with consensus of 7.1%.
Direct sales, Europe, the Middle East and Africa, and China likely remain revenue drags, with profits expected to bottom before sales, Jefferies wrote.
Classics remain a drag, with management guiding Sportswear and Jordan sales declines until the second half of the financial year.
Jefferies views first-quarter results as a progress check, with the November 16-17 investor day and its long-term guidance framework representing the stronger near-term catalyst.
No Investment Advice
This content is published by Proactive Investors Limited and made available subject to the terms and conditions of use of its website (see Terms of Use).
Proactive Investors is a full-service financial newswire. We produce independent, objective financial journalism and do not provide personalised investment advice, act as a broker, or recommend specific securities to individual investors.
Financial content published on this Site is produced under the journalist exemption provided for in Article 20 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, and in accordance with FCA guidance at PERG 8.12. Where a communication is not otherwise exempt, it is issued or approved for distribution in the UK by Proactive Investors Limited.
All information used in the preparation of this communication has been compiled from publicly available sources that we believe to be reliable, however, we cannot, and do not, guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this communication.
This communication is intended for information purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a personal recommendation, an offer, solicitation, or inducement to buy or sell any investment or financial product. Opinions and commentary reflect the views of the named author at the time of writing and are subject to change without notice.
This communication has been prepared without taking account of the objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular investor. Before entering into any transaction, investors should consider suitability for their individual circumstances and should read the relevant prospectus, term sheet, subscription agreement, information memorandum, prospectus or other offering document in full.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. The value of investments can fall as well as rise, and you may not recover the amount you invest.
This communication may contain information obtained from third parties, including credit ratings and financial data. Reproduction and distribution of third-party content in any form is prohibited except with the prior written consent of the relevant third party. Credit ratings are statements of opinion and should not be relied upon as investment advice.
NIKE plánuje ve druhé polovině fiskálního roku 2027 uvést více než tucet nových modelů Sportswear obuvi, aby oživil zájem o značku. V roce 2026 přitom z trhu stáhl přes 2 miliardy USD klasických obuvnických franšíz.
Key Takeaways NIKE plans more than a dozen new Sportswear footwear styles in the second half of fiscal 2027.NIKE Direct revenues fell 6% in fiscal 2026, while NIKE Brand Digital revenues declined 12%.NIKE removed over $2 billion of classic footwear franchises from the market in fiscal 2026. NIKE, Inc. (NKE - Free Report) is relying on product innovation and a stronger focus on sport to rebuild momentum after a challenging period for its Sportswear business. In fiscal 2026, NIKE Brand footwear revenues were essentially flat at $29.5 billion on a reported basis and declined 2% on a currency-neutral basis. The weakness was more pronounced in Greater China, where footwear sales fell 13% on a reported basis and 15% on a currency neutral basis.
However, the recovery is unlikely to depend mainly on product launches. NIKE Direct revenues declined 6% in fiscal 2026, while NIKE Brand Digital fell 12%, indicating that distribution and consumer engagement remain important challenges. NIKE expects Sportswear to remain under pressure in fiscal 2027, with improvement anticipated in the second half. The category’s sell-through remains challenged, contributing to higher discounting and weaker future order books. Sportswear and Jordan Streetwear together account for roughly half of NIKE’s revenues, making their recovery important to restoring sustainable top-line growth.
Nevertheless, the company is responding by reshaping its footwear portfolio. In the second half of fiscal 2027, NIKE plans to introduce over a dozen new Sportswear footwear styles, emphasizing innovation, fresh silhouettes and distinct consumer experiences rather than relying primarily on retro franchises. The company removed more than $2 billion of classic footwear franchises from the market in fiscal 2026 as part of this repositioning.
NIKE has further emphasized its “Sport Offense” strategy, which seeks to create a more complete product portfolio, strengthen connections with athletes and consumers, and improve marketplace execution. The company said that progress was already visible in performance products during fiscal 2026.
New footwear could therefore help NIKE refresh consumer interest, improve full-price sell-through and reduce reliance on older franchises. A stronger performance-running portfolio could also create opportunities to attract consumers beyond traditional Sportswear offerings and generate renewed brand excitement. Hence, successful launches, supported by effective marketing, wholesale partnerships and improved digital execution, could provide an important foundation for rebuilding Sportswear momentum.
NKE’s Peerslululemon athletica inc. (LULU - Free Report) is putting greater emphasis on product newness, technical performance and innovation. LULU has been specifically increasing the frequency and breadth of new styles while maintaining its premium positioning. lululemon is leveraging its innovation platform and expanding beyond traditional yoga and core categories into areas such as running, training, tennis, golf, hiking and footwear.
adidas AG’s (ADDYY - Free Report) innovation strategy is centered on athlete-led product development, advanced technologies, local consumer insights and a combination of performance innovation with lifestyle appeal. adidas is pursuing a broad-based growth strategy centered on product innovation, performance and lifestyle relevance. ADDYY is strengthening key performance categories such as Running, Football and Training through new technologies and athlete-focused products, while simultaneously refreshing its Lifestyle portfolio.
NKE’S Price Performance, Valuation and EstimatesShares of NIKE have lost 28% in the past six months compared with the industry’s decline of 23.3%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
From a valuation standpoint, NKE trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 19.57X compared with the industry’s average of 17.32X.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NKE’s fiscal 2027 and fiscal 2028 earnings implies year-over-year growth of 5.1% and 30.6%, respectively. The company’s EPS estimate for fiscal 2027 and fiscal 2028 has moved south in the past seven days.
Nike čeká na výsledky za 1. fiskální čtvrtletí roku 2027 a akcie jsou na 12letém minimu po téměř 80% propadu z vrcholu z roku 2021. Tržby ve fiskálním roce 2026 (skončeném 31. května) činily 46,4 miliardy USD, téměř beze změny.
Nike (NKE -0.67%) is set to report its earnings for the first quarter of fiscal 2027 (ended Aug. 31) on Oct. 1. Its stock has plunged to a 12-year low as strategic missteps and rising competition led to a decline of almost 80% from its 2021 peak. This culminated in Nike's removal from the S&P 100 index earlier in September.
Admittedly, bargain hunters may want to come in and add shares of the consumer discretionary stock. Nonetheless, investors should probably refrain from buying shares before the Oct. 1 report, and here's why.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
A fizzled growth story Nike had built a long-standing competitive advantage through athlete endorsements, an asset-light business model combined with a strong supply chain, and continued product innovation backed by research and development.
However, a failed move into exclusively online sales cost it valuable shelf space earlier this decade. While it eventually reversed this unfortunate move, the weak period gave competitors like On Holding and adidas an opportunity to capture open shelf space and take market share from Nike.
As conditions stand now, recapturing its lost market share may be as hard as returning to the S&P 100. Revenue growth in fiscal 2026 (ended May 31) was $46.4 billion, virtually unchanged from the previous year. Also, higher taxes meant revenue fell 3% during that time to $3.1 billion.
Furthermore, with analysts forecasting a 3% revenue decline in fiscal Q1 and a 2% drop for fiscal 2027, a recovery is unlikely anytime soon.
Premium Feature
Moneyball Superscore
54/100
Today's Change
(
-0.67
%) $
-0.24
Current Price
$
35.75
Admittedly, considering the P/E ratio at a multi-year low of 17 and the dividend yield of 4.6%, investors might be tempted to buy.
Still, low earnings multiples are less meaningful without growth. Additionally, the $2.4 billion Nike spent on dividends in fiscal 2026 exceeded its free cash flow of $2.2 billion. The heavy dividend payouts could strain the company's finances if conditions do not improve soon, possibly jeopardizing its seat in the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
Under such conditions, investors should probably avoid buying this stock until Nike proves it can reinvigorate revenue growth.
Will Healy has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Nike and On Holding. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Bank of America snížila hodnocení Nike na Underperform z Neutral a cílovou cenu na 30 USD, protože obrat značky očekává až o fiskální rok později. Akcie dnes klesají o 2 %.
Bank of America just told investors that Nike's comeback is running a full year behind schedule, and the market is punishing the stock while its rivals barely flinch. Whether the selloff stays contained to one brand or spreads across athletic…
This post may contain links from our sponsors and affiliates, and Flywheel Publishing may receive compensation for actions taken through them.
Nike (NYSE:NKE | NKE Price Prediction) is slipping after Bank of America concluded that the sneaker giant’s turnaround will arrive a full fiscal year later than expected, and the selling looks specific to the brand. Nike stock is down 2% to $35.18 so far today, leaving the shares down 43% year to date.
Meanwhile, Dick’s Sporting Goods (NYSE:DKS) stock is up 2% to $136.29, a gain for one of Nike’s key retail channels. On Holding (NYSE:ONON) stock is up 0.2% to $30.51, barely shifting even with its larger running rival in retreat, according to Bank of America.
Consumer names broadly are stronger around Nike. The Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (NYSEARCA:XLY) is up 0.4%. Additionally, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY) is up 0.3%, leaving Nike as a clear laggard against a green background.
Bank of America Pushes Nike’s Recovery Out a Year Analysts led by Lorraine Hutchinson at Bank of America downgraded Nike to Underperform from Neutral and lowered their price objective to $30. Nike’s sales recovery now looks likely to arrive a fiscal year later than the stronger previously expected, with revenue forecast to decline through the year ahead. Bank of America summed up its view by stating that “risks are rising” for the turnaround.
North America wholesale is likely to slow. The recent bright spot for Nike still sees sell-through lagging sell-in, according to the stronger, and that gap could leave retailers less willing to back new product. Hutchinson’s team also pointed to weak sports demand in China, product innovation that isn’t connecting with consumers, and excess inventory built up by soft demand. With the top line under strain, the stronger stated that Nike’s earnings outlook increasingly depends on gross margin expansion and cost control, and it expects the incoming chief financial officer to focus on reducing operating overhead.
Rivals Hold Up While Nike Slides Bank of America’s call on Nike is a timing argument. The stronger still projects a turnaround coming, just a year later than it anticipated, and a recovery pushed further out is worth less in present terms, so the downgrade mainly asks the market to pay a lower multiple for a delayed payoff given how far Nike stock has already fallen this year.
Across athletic retail, the reaction looks contained to one name. Dick’s, a key channel for Nike product, is higher, and On Holding, a direct rival in premium running, is holding its ground, which marks the selloff as specific to Nike, tied to its own inventory, product, and China questions.
Nike’s own leadership highlighted the same pressure points earlier this year. Elliott Hill was chief executive at the time. On the company’s fiscal 2026 fourth-quarter earnings call on June 30, he stated, “Overall, the results aren’t there yet.” Hill added that sell-through in Nike Sportswear and Jordan Streetwear “remains challenged, impacting both current discounting and future order books,” which lines up with the wholesale worry Bank of America raised.
What to Watch Next North America wholesale is the clearest test of Bank of America’s call on Nike, since that channel has been a recent source of strength for the brand. Investors may want to watch for signs that retailers such as Dick’s grow less willing to back new Nike product, a shift that would support the firm’s sell-through concern. Any early move by the incoming chief financial officer on overhead could also shape how quickly margins carry Nike’s earnings story.
Dick’s and On Holding also offer a gauge of whether the pressure on Nike spreads across athletic names. A slide in either stock could extend the story from one brand to the broader category, and investors holding several of these names should weigh their overall exposure to the group with that risk in mind. Until one of those names cracks, the downgrade remains a verdict on Nike’s execution.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Nike zveřejní výsledky 1. října po uzavření trhu; analytici čekají EPS 44 centů a tržby 11,35 miliardy USD. Minulé čtvrtletí firma překonala odhad zisku i tržeb.
Nike Inc. (NYSE:NKE) shares are in the spotlight, with earnings on deck, recent analyst activity, a technical setup showing the stock below every major moving average and Edge Rankings all drawing attention.
Nike stock is building positive momentum. Why are NKE shares climbing? Earnings Preview & HistoryNike is scheduled to report first-quarter fiscal 2027 earnings on October 1 after market close. Analysts estimate EPS of 44 cents along with revenue of $11.35 billion. For the prior quarter, Nike reported EPS of 20 cents, beating the consensus estimate of 13 cents. The company also posted revenue of $10.97 billion, beating the consensus estimate of $10.86 billion.
What to Watch: Gross Margins and China Revenue Hold the Key for NikeInvestors will be closely tracking Greater China revenue, which fell 12% on a reported basis in the prior quarter as the region continues to weigh on the company’s turnaround under CEO Elliott Hill. Gross margin trends will also be in focus, since Nike has projected margin expansion could begin this quarter after seven consecutive quarters of year-over-year declines, though tariff-related cost pressures remain a wildcard.
Commentary on NIKE Direct performance, wholesale channel growth in North America, and progress on Hill’s “Win Now” strategy should offer additional signals on whether the company’s turnaround is translating into a genuine, broad-based recovery rather than just easier year-over-year comparisons.
Analyst Consensus & Recent ActionsThe stock carries a Hold rating with an average price forecast of $46.83. Recent analyst moves include:
StoneX: Initiated with Hold (Sept. 22) Stifel: Hold (Lowers Target to $40.00) (Sept. 21) UBS: Neutral (Lowers Target to $42.00) (Sept. 17) Nike Trades Below Every Major Moving AverageNike is still in a longer-term downtrend, with the stock down 49.35% over the past 12 months and trading below every major moving average. At $36.70, it’s trading 2.9% below the 20-day SMA ($37.77), 8.9% below the 50-day SMA ($40.28), 12.6% below the 100-day SMA ($41.97), and 26.7% below the 200-day SMA ($50.08).
Momentum remains the key issue: MACD is below its signal line and the histogram is negative, which points to upside pressure fading unless buyers can push the trend back above that baseline. Structurally, the bearish backdrop is reinforced by the 20-day SMA sitting below the 50-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA remaining below the 200-day SMA (the death cross that formed in November 2025).
From a levels perspective, the chart is trying to stabilize just above the 52-week low at $35.35, making this area an important "line in the sand" for bulls. A more durable rebound typically needs follow-through back above the low-$40s, where multiple moving averages are clustered and can act like overhead supply.
Key Resistance: $41.50 — a nearby level where rebounds can stall, sitting close to the 50-day SMA/100-day SMA zone Benzinga Edge RankingsBelow is the Benzinga Edge scorecard for Nike, highlighting its strengths and weaknesses compared to the broader market:
Momentum: Weak (Score: 4.24) — The stock’s trend has been lagging, which fits with price staying below key moving averages. Quality: Weak (Score: 24.92) — The score suggests the market is not rewarding Nike’s current fundamentals as strongly as many peers. Value: Strong (Score: 76.3) — Valuation looks more appealing on this model, which can attract longer-term buyers if the chart stabilizes. Growth: Strong (Score: 88.55) — Expectations for longer-run growth remain supportive, even as near-term momentum stays pressured. The Verdict: Nike’s Benzinga Edge signal reveals a value-and-growth-leaning setup that’s still fighting a very weak momentum tape. For longer-term investors, the opportunity case improves if the stock can reclaim the low-$40s, but until then the trend profile argues for patience and clear risk levels near the $35 area.
Read Next
Nike Shares Edge HigherNKE Price Action: At the time of publication, Nike shares are trading 1.83% higher at $36.76, according to data from Benzinga Pro.
Image via Shutterstock
This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
Key Takeaways NIKE refreshed 15,000 wholesale spaces and elevated 150 company-owned stores in fiscal 2026.NIKE wholesale revenues rose 4% in fiscal 2026, led by double-digit growth in North America.NIKE is cutting promotions and tightening inventory to support stronger full-price sales and margins. NIKE Inc. (NKE - Free Report) is reshaping its marketplace strategy to create a healthier balance between broad consumer reach and stronger full-price profitability. The company is rebuilding wholesale relationships while simultaneously upgrading its direct-to-consumer presence, with a sharper focus on premium brand presentation across digital and physical channels. In fiscal 2026, NIKE refreshed more than 15,000 spaces across wholesale doors globally and elevated more than 150 company-owned stores with sport-led experiences. At the same time, it has been reducing promotional intensity on NIKE Digital and closing stores that no longer fit its long-term marketplace strategy.
Wholesale is becoming an increasingly important part of this integrated approach. Fiscal 2026 wholesale revenues grew 4%, led by double-digit growth in North America, while the company continues to deepen relationships with key retail partners and selectively expand distribution. In North America, fourth-quarter wholesale revenues rose 10%, while NIKE and retail sales at Foot Locker turned positive together for the first time in four years. Importantly, management indicated that the improvement reflected not only sales growth but also lower discounts, cancellations, returns and sales-related reserves, suggesting that NIKE is prioritizing healthier economics alongside wider marketplace exposure.
The profitability side of the strategy hinges on tighter inventory management and a greater proportion of full-price sales. NIKE has been reducing promotions, tightening buys and moderating future sell-in where consumer demand remains soft, particularly in Sportswear. In EMEA, off-price digital sales fell more than 50%, contributing to a 15-percentage-point improvement in full-price realization, while Greater China is also showing better full-price realization after aggressive promotional reductions. Management expects these actions, together with supply-chain efficiencies, to support margin expansion over time. However, the approach may constrain near-term revenues as NIKE deliberately trades some volume for cleaner inventories, stronger pricing and a more premium marketplace.
How Are ADDYY and LULU Managing Marketplace Growth?adidas AG (ADDYY - Free Report) and lululemon athletica inc. (LULU - Free Report) are NKE’s key competitors in the global market.
ADDYY is pursuing a balanced marketplace strategy that combines strong direct-to-consumer momentum with disciplined wholesale distribution. In the first half of 2026, DTC revenues advanced 23% on a currency-neutral basis, supported by a 26% increase in e-commerce and 21% growth in own retail, while wholesale revenues rose 7%. At the same time, adidas maintained a conservative wholesale sell-in approach, particularly in Europe, to protect key franchises and sustain full-price realization in a promotional environment. This discipline, coupled with healthy product sell-through and a favorable business mix, is helping the company broaden consumer reach without sacrificing pricing quality or margin potential.
LULU is taking a more measured approach to marketplace growth as it works to strengthen full-price sales and preserve its premium brand positioning. lululemon continues to expand its store network and enhance digital and in-store experiences, ending the second quarter of fiscal 2026 with 825 company-operated stores. However, softer demand, particularly in the Americas, has increased the importance of disciplined inventory and promotional management. Management has identified improving full-price sales, especially in North America, as a key priority, while simultaneously investing in product innovation, marketing and international expansion. This approach could support healthier long-term margins, though weaker comparable sales suggest that balancing broader reach with profitability remains an ongoing challenge.
NKE’s Price Performance, Valuation & EstimatesShares of NIKE have lost 32.6% in the past three months compared with the industry’s decline of 28.2%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
From a valuation standpoint, NKE trades at a forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio of 19.34X compared with the industry’s average of 16.96X.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NKE’s fiscal 2026 earnings implies a year-over-year increase of 6.7%, while that for fiscal 2027 indicates growth of 28.6%. The company’s EPS estimates for fiscal 2026 and 2027 have been stable in the past seven days.
The popular yet struggling apparel maker Nike (NYSE: NKE) is scheduled to pay its quarterly dividend next week, offering at least some silver lining to its shareholders despite the protracted stock market decline.
Specifically, the company’s upcoming dividend was declared on August 6 and is scheduled to be paid on Thursday, October 1. Nike’s annual yield stands at a rather high 4.62%, and the quarterly dividend will amount to $0.41.
Thus, owning 100 NKE shares will yield $41. Meanwhile, Travis Knight, CEO of the stop-motion animation studio Laika and the son of Nike co-founder Phil Knight, can expect to receive roughly $7.8 million on his 19 million shares.
Meanwhile, Phil Knight himself, the firm’s second-biggest individual shareholder, will receive approximately $5.25 million for his 12.8 million NKE.
Notably, the ex-dividend date for the October 1 payment passed on September 1, meaning new investors will not benefit from the upcoming payment.
Nike stock price crashes 80% from 2021 highs Elsewhere, Nike stock has been suffering an exceptionally difficult decade ever since reaching its briefly held highs in late 2021.
After a strong eleven years that started as the Great Recession was ending and took NKE equity more than 1,300% higher, the apparel company began a descent that took it from highs above $175 five years ago to $35.51 at the latest, September 18, 2026, close.
Nike stock price five-year chart. Source: Google The steep decline also put Nike stock at prices not seen for about 12 years: since 2014.
Why Nike stock price plummeted 80% in five years Simultaneously, pinpointing the exact cause of the downturn is difficult, arguably because the company is struggling with multiple simultaneous headwinds.
The firm’s transition toward selling its products directly to consumers has proven difficult, and some commentators blamed Nike’s decision to lean into the ‘culture war’ in its promotional material for the poor performance.
Still, the overall economic situation since the end of the COVID-19 pandemic is probably more to blame. Inflation has been elevated for years, squeezing consumers, while the numerous supply chain disruptions also made production more difficult.
Lastly, the situation has been exacerbated by the rise of various competitors, and changes in the industrial and consumer profile of China have also led to a decline in sales in one of the world’s largest markets.
Featured image via Shutterstock
Best Crypto Exchange for Intermediate Traders and Investors
Invest in cryptocurrencies and 3,000+ other assets including stocks and precious metals.
0% commission on stocks - buy in bulk or just a fraction from as little as $10. Other fees apply. For more information, visit etoro.com/trading/fees.
Copy top-performing traders in real time, automatically.
eToro USA is registered with FINRA for securities trading.
30+ million Users worldwide
Securities trading offered by eToro USA Securities, Inc. (“the BD”), member of FINRA and SIPC. Cryptocurrency offered by eToro USA LLC (“the MSB”) (NMLS: 1769299) and is not FDIC or SIPC insured. Investing involves risk, and content is provided for educational purposes only, does not imply a recommendation, and is not a guarantee of future performance. Finbold.com is not an affiliate and may be compensated if you access certain products or services offered by the MSB and/or the BD
Join Finbold's newsroom, become a Sales Executive today! Apply now to join Finbold as a crypto/finance news writer!
French soccer phenom Kylian Mbappé signed his new endorsement deal with On after Nike chose not to renew its deal with the international superstar, a source familiar with the matter told CNBC.
Earlier Friday, the Swiss sportswear company On said it reached an agreement with Mbappé, marking the brand's first signing in football. The company also announced it named retired French star Thierry Henry as director of football.
As Mbappé's contact ended in July, Nike felt it had benefitted from the prime years of his career and decided to use its endorsement money elsewhere, the source added. The 27-year-old will be 31 when the 2030 World Cup kicks off.
The move is another major change for Nike, which is trying to rebuild brand loyalty and product innovation under CEO Elliott Hill. The company's sluggish sales, particularly struggles in China, have contributed to its stock falling about 50% in the last year.
Meanwhile, it's a coup for On, which has branched more outside of its core running segment.
Mbappé joined the swoosh in 2006, when he was still a child, and has since emerged as one of the sport's highest profile stars. The Real Madrid star is the all-time leading scorer in the men's World Cup and for the French national team, and won the tournament with France in 2018.
In a statement, Mbappé said he was drawn to On by the opportunity to build something entirely new.
"I want to bring my experience and perspective into what we create, push what's possible through innovation, and always stay true to the joy of football. We have a shared dream, and this is only the beginning," he said.
On said it wants to bring a "fresh perspective" to the sport.
"Football doesn't need another sportswear brand to do more of the same," said David Allemann, founder and co-CEO of On, in a statement. "Football needs new ideas and a challenge to what is possible.
For years, Nike has represented many of the top soccer stars in the world including Erling Haaland, Vinicius Junior, Alexia Putellas and Sam Kerr.
Nike wished Mbappé well in a statement.
"Over nearly two decades, we've shared moments that shaped the game and he has been an important part of Nike Football," the company said. "We are proud of what we achieved together on and off the pitch. As he moves into the next phase of his career, we wish him continued success for what comes next."
In an analyst note assessing On's ambitions in the sport, Jefferies warned that football is one of the most expensive categories to enter and that "performance credibility cannot simply be bought."
"We see parallels to [Under Armour's past partnership with Stephen Curry]: a star athlete who failed to establish the brand as a dominant player in the sport."
Get the CNBC Sport newsletter directly to your inboxThe CNBC Sport newsletter with Alex Sherman brings you the biggest news and exclusive interviews from the worlds of sports business and media, delivered weekly to your inbox.
UBS snížila cílovou cenu Nike o 13 % na 42 USD a varuje před slabšími zisky i před zveřejněním výsledků za 1. čtvrtletí. Očekává také horší vývoj prodejů v USA, Evropě a Číně.
Nike Inc. (NYSE:NKE, XETRA:NKE) faces weaker earnings expectations as UBS cut its price target by 13% to $42, citing deteriorating global sales trends ahead of its first-quarter report.
UBS expects first-quarter earnings for financial year 2027 to miss consensus by $0.05 per share, with implied second-quarter guidance of $0.31 to $0.43 against consensus of $0.53.
The broker’s new financial year 2027 earnings estimate is $1.30 per share, below the roughly $1.55 it identified as buy-side consensus.
UBS flagged the risk that management could reset expectations lower for that financial year in the upcoming report, ahead of November’s investor day.
Its target cut reflects a 13% reduction in its FY2029 earnings estimate to $2.00 per share, valued at 21 times earnings.
UBS channel checks suggest Nike’s global sales growth trend deteriorated over the past three months.
The broker estimates US direct-to-consumer sales fell by a mid-single-digit percentage in the first quarter, versus consensus expectations of a 0.4% decline. It also flagged pressure on direct-to-consumer sales in Europe, the Middle East and Africa, European wholesale trends and sales in China.
UBS pricing data indicated higher promotional activity than a year earlier in Nike’s direct-to-consumer channel during the first quarter.
The broker maintained its "neutral" rating because it expects Nike to perform in line with peers over the next 12 months.
The shares traded at $35.89, down 1%, on Friday afternoon.
Nike je po 41,53% poklesu akcií od začátku roku a 48,16% za poslední rok spíš dividendový příběh než růstový. Dividendový výnos činí 4,56 %, ale výhled na FY27 počítá s poklesem tržeb o nízké až střední jednociferné procento.
Nike's stock has shed nearly half its value in a year, and suddenly the swoosh is flashing a yield income investors cannot ignore. But a fat dividend built on a collapsing share price is a very different animal from one…
For most of the past three decades, owning Nike (NYSE:NKE | NKE Price Prediction) meant owning a compounder. That thesis has cracked. Shares are down 41.53% year to date and 48.16% over the past year, trading at $36.28 against a 52-week high of $74.51. Reuters reported this week that the slide has put Nike’s Dow seat in jeopardy. Barron’s echoed that Nike’s days in the Dow may be numbered. So the question owners now have to answer is uncomfortable: is this still a growth stock, or is it a dividend stock wearing a growth stock’s old jersey?
A Yield That Grew Both Ways The trailing yield sits at 4.56%, well above Nike’s historical band. Two forces got it there. The payout genuinely grew: the quarterly dividend rose from $0.16 in 2016 to $0.41 today, and management flagged the 24th consecutive year of increasing dividend payouts in fiscal Q3 2026. But the share price also collapsed. A yield that looks generous because the payer is shrinking is not the same as one earned through compounding.
Contrast that with peers riding the opposite trade. Lululemon Athletica (NASDAQ:LULU) has historically returned cash through buybacks rather than a regular dividend, the profile Nike itself carried a decade ago. On Holding (NYSE:ONON) pays nothing and is the pure growth narrative eating Nike’s running share, even as Nike claims to have added “roughly a billion dollars to our running business” and gained five points of statement-footwear share in FY26.
Is the Check Actually Covered? Here the picture gets thinner. Fiscal 2026 dividend payments totaled $2.407 billion against operating cash flow of just $2.868 billion and capex of $684 million. Operating cash flow has fallen from $7.429 billion in fiscal 2024. Buybacks were throttled to $123 million in fiscal 2026, a fraction of prior years. Net income of $3.108 billion still covers the dividend, but reported FY26 EPS of $2.10 included a one-time $986 million IEEPA tariff-recovery benefit. Strip that out and EPS was $1.58, uncomfortably close to the $1.64 annualized payout.
The balance sheet still offers cover: $7.563 billion in cash and short-term investments against $11.033 billion in total debt. CFO Matthew Friend told analysts, “Our balance sheet is strong with substantial liquidity and flexibility to operate as we go forward.”
Verdict CEO Elliott Hill’s framing is candid. “The results aren’t there yet,” he said, adding, “I’m confident we’re building Nike the right way, not for the next quarter, but for the next decade.” FY27 guidance calls for revenue down low to mid-single digits. That is not a growth story.
Nike has become a dividend story, but a fragile one. The streak is real, the yield is real, and coverage holds. Owners are now being paid to wait, with the risk that if margins do not stabilize, the payout growth slows to a crawl long before Hill’s decade-long comeback pays off. A yield stretched by a falling share price is exactly the setup that trips income investors, which is why we cataloged the seven warning signs of a dividend on borrowed time in a free report.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Kylian Mbappé is stepping into football boots for a Swiss brand that has never sold a cleat, and Nike stock is already feeling it. What this means for the sport's two biggest incumbents is still unfolding.
This post may contain links from our sponsors and affiliates, and Flywheel Publishing may receive compensation for actions taken through them.
On Holding (NYSE:ONON | ONON Price Prediction) shares are climbing Friday morning after reports that French soccer star Kylian Mbappé is joining the Swiss brand’s push into football, taking it into cleats and match-day apparel for the first time in earnest. The stock is up 5% to $28.64, a rare positive session for a name that has been under pressure all year.
The Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (NYSEARCA:XLY) is up 0.3% in early trading. The broader S&P 500 is down 0.3%, so On Holding’s move stands out against a mixed tape rather than riding a broad rally.
Nike (NYSE:NKE) stock is down 1% to $36, easing on the read-through as a premium challenger steps onto Nike’s home turf in the world’s most-watched sport. Behind the On Holding pop is a brand catalyst rather than a numbers event, since no contract terms have been disclosed and nothing in On Holding’s reported results changed this morning.
Football Push Redraws the Brand Map Reports Friday name Mbappé, who plays for Real Madrid, as the face of On Holding’s move into football, a category where Nike and Adidas have long set the terms. For On Holding, that is a step outside the running and tennis lanes the brand is best known for, and into the largest global sport by audience.
On Holding’s own recent numbers already lean premium. Q2 2026 net sales were $1.05 billion, up 13.5% reported and 21.6% at constant currency, with gross margin at 65.4% and direct-to-consumer at 45.7% of net sales. Adding a marquee footballer to that mix broadens the addressable audience without changing the premium positioning management has emphasized.
Management at On Holding raised its full-year gross margin floor to at least 65% and reiterated an adjusted EBITDA margin range of 19.5% to 20%, targeting low-20% constant-currency net sales growth. A football entry is a distribution story on top of that framework, not a substitute for it.
Nike, Adidas, and the Sector Read-Through Nike is the incumbent, and its most recent print showed the pressure. Fiscal Q1 2027 revenue was $10.97 billion, down 1.1%, with NIKE Direct down 7% and Greater China off 12%. A fresh premium challenger in football doesn’t help while Nike is already working through what its chief executive called “top-line headwinds”.
However, the football category has been a Nike bright spot. Management said kit sales at the start of the recent World Cup were 2.5 times the same period in 2022, and the Mercurial launch was described as “the fastest selling 24-hour launch for cleated footwear” in Nike Direct history. That’s the bar On Holding is now aiming at.
Peers Sit on the Edge of the Move Lululemon Athletica (NASDAQ:LULU) is another premium athletic brand chasing the same aspirational consumer, and Lululemon has been navigating soft North American demand of its own. The Mbappé story doesn’t touch Lululemon directly, yet it sharpens the question of which premium name owns share of mind heading into fall.
Dick’s Sporting Goods (NYSE:DKS) is a key wholesale channel for both On Holding and Nike, so Dick’s shelf mix can shift as brand heat shifts. A credible On Holding football launch would give Dick’s a new premium cleat story to merchandise alongside the incumbents.
What to Watch Next The caution is that a signed athlete is unproven revenue for On Holding, since attention arrives before footwear sales do. On Holding stock is down 38% year to date (YTD), and a name that has fallen that far can reprice hard on a single branding headline in either direction.
Investors can watch for follow-up disclosures on contract structure, a football product calendar, or first cleat SKUs from On Holding. Traders may want to keep an eye on whether the Nike weakness holds through the session or fades as the initial read-through cools.
For traders building or trimming positions here, their sizing should reflect that today’s On Holding move is sentiment ahead of numbers, and that the YTD chart still shows a broken uptrend. A cautious approach in On Holding, and patience on Nike until the football response is visible in product and marketing, keeps their risk in line with what is actually known today.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Nike je po propadu zhruba 79 % od svého vrcholu a jeho dividendový výnos je kolem 4,5 %. Firma ale čelí slabosti v Číně, kde tržby v Greater China meziročně klesly o 11 %.
Nike's (NKE +0.26%) key growth strategies over the past decade have been largely unsuccessful. In some cases, they've actually created significant setbacks for the business. As a result, the company's stock is down about 34% in the last 10 years -- and down about 79% from its valuation peak.
On the other hand, big sell-offs and continued payout increases have pushed the stock's dividend yield up to roughly 4.5%. So, does Nike stock stand out as a great buy-and-hold dividend play at these prices?
Image source: Getty Images.
What's Nike up against? Nike's dividend yield has never been higher, and it's now at a level that warrants consideration from income-focused investors. Conversely, the stock sell-offs that have pushed the yield up to its current levels have not happened by accident -- and the company is facing some real challenges.
For starters, the company's big bet on China appears to be failing. Revenue from the company's Greater China segment declined 11% year over year last quarter, and it doesn't look like a turnaround in the market will be happening anytime in the near future. Nike has lost ground to domestic Chinese brands, and this shift in consumer preferences is not an easy thing to reverse.
Nike's focus on direct-to-consumer (DTC) sales also wound up making it easier for rival brands to strengthen their footholds in the U.S., Europe, and other markets. Amid ongoing growth for the e-commerce market, cutting out retail intermediaries and focusing on DTC channels had seemed like a sensible move that could boost margins. However, diminished featuring from retail partners appears to have had a significant adverse effect on the brand.
Premium Feature
Moneyball Superscore
54/100
Today's Change
(
0.26
%) $
0.09
Current Price
$
36.31
Is Nike stock a worthwhile dividend play? With a yield of roughly 4.5%, Nike stock deserves consideration from income-focused investors. Despite the challenges facing the business, the company continues to have solid financial foundations. It's still posting profits, and its roughly $11 billion in debt against $9 billion in cash and equivalents at the end of last quarter shows the balance sheet isn't distressed.
Depressed earnings mean that the company's dividend payout ratio is relatively high right now, but Nike also has a 24-year streak of delivering annual payout growth. There's a good chance that the company will push that streak to 25 years before 2026 is out, but it's also likely that the payout hike will be relatively modest.
Dividend growth will likely continue to be small for the foreseeable future, and a dividend cut is a real possibility if the company's annual earnings continue to fall. With revenue likely to remain under pressure due to weakness in the Greater China segment and other headwinds, Nike is tasked with reducing costs while still engineering a return to growth.
I think the stock is a worthwhile buy for long-term dividend investors right now, but the company still faces significant execution risks.
Nike bude před pondělním otevřením trhu vyřazen z indexu S&P 100 po téměř 18 letech. Od vrcholu v roce 2021 se jí z tržní kapitalizace smazalo přes 200 miliard USD.
Nike’s upcoming removal from the S&P 100 is easy to read as a corporate fall-from-grace story. It may be more useful to read it as a retail one.
After nearly 18 years in the index, Nike will be removed from the S&P 100 before trading opens next Monday (Sept. 21), the culmination of a decline that has erased more than $200 billion from its market capitalization since its 2021 peak. The company remains in the S&P 500, and an index reshuffle, which will see the cybersecurity firm Palo Alto Networks take Nike’s place, does not change the economics of selling sneakers.
But Nike’s descent captures how dramatically those economics have changed.
The company that helped define the globalization and direct-to-consumer eras is now confronting the limits of both. Consumers have more brands competing for their discretionary dollars. China is simultaneously a difficult growth market and an essential part of the global manufacturing ecosystem. Digital distribution has made it easier for challengers to reach shoppers. And the wholesale retailers that brands once hoped to bypass have proved harder to replace than expected.
Nike’s problem, in other words, is not simply that consumers stopped buying Nike. It is that the competitive machinery surrounding the consumer has potentially changed faster than the operations of one of retail’s most powerful brands has been able to.
Perhaps the most symbolic part of Nike’s S&P 100 exit is what replaces it. Dell Technologies, Arista Networks and Sandisk are entering the index as part of the same quarterly rebalance, along with Palo Alto Networks. All four additions are technology companies.
See also: Walmart Opens Checkout as Amazon Builds Its AI Advantage
The Consumer Is Still Spending. The Fight for That Spend is Getting Harder. When households become more selective, the largest brand does not automatically capture the remaining wallet share. Consumers can trade down, postpone purchases or simply move spending toward products they perceive as fresher or more differentiated. In athletic footwear, Nike is competing not just with its perennial peer, Adidas, but with new and credible alternatives including On and Hoka, all while its own domestic competitors have intensified the fight in China.
Greater China sales fell sharply again in Nike’s fiscal fourth quarter, extending a prolonged period of weakness. The company is confronting a softer market alongside increasingly capable domestic competitors and changing consumer preferences. Nike has warned that its turnaround will take time, with further revenue pressure expected through the first half of fiscal 2027.
Nike, in essence, is trying to restore growth in a category where consumer attention has fragmented and switching costs are effectively zero. Still, per the company’s latest financial reporting its wholesale revenue is growing, North America has improved, and the company says it is strengthening its product portfolio and marketplace positioning. But management also acknowledged persistent top-line headwinds and uneven sell-through.
For much of the past generation, the dominant retail playbook was built around scale: build a global brand, globalize production, consolidate marketing power and increasingly own the consumer relationship through digital channels. Consumers visited familiar stores, used familiar payment methods and purchased from whatever assortment was available. Each additional merchant or brand introduced another small inconvenience.
Today’s emerging environment is proving to be less forgiving, at least for the incumbents.
Digital wallets, stored credentials, one-click checkout and embedded payments have progressively stripped those inconveniences away. Buying from a challenger brand can now feel almost identical to buying from the market leader.
We’d love to be your preferred source for news.
Please add us to your preferred sources list so our news, data and interviews show up in your feed. Thanks!
Read more: AI Can Pick the Shoes but Amazon Still Moves the Box
Retail Competition Is Moving Ahead of Checkout For decades, Nike’s competitive advantage was partly about controlling consumer attention. A powerful brand could spend heavily on athletes, advertising and distribution, creating a feedback loop in which visibility generated demand and demand generated even more visibility.
But the shopping behaviors of emerging generations is producing a split between where buying decisions begin and where purchases ultimately happen.
The PYMNTS Intelligence report “The Millennial Shopping Map: How AI, Search and Stores Compete Before Checkout” found in July that Google remains the most widely used product-discovery tool among millennials, at 57%. However, ChatGPT has moved into second place at 41%, ahead of Amazon at 37%, YouTube at 29%, and Instagram and Gemini each reach 26%.
Brands spent years trying to move consumers into proprietary apps, websites and loyalty ecosystems because controlling the interface meant controlling more of the economics and data surrounding the transaction. AI threatens to introduce another interface above them.
Separate findings in “The Hidden Cost of Checkout Gaps,” a PYMNTS Intelligence report produced in collaboration with PayPal, found that 43% of consumers say they’d likely link a digital wallet to an AI agent for purchases within two years.
The strategic question as a result changes from “How do we get customers onto our website?” to “How do we make sure the systems helping customers decide what to buy understand why they should choose us?”
None of this means Nike’s decline was caused by AI or payments technology. Its current difficulties have much more immediate explanations, including product strategy, distribution decisions, China weakness and stronger competition. But Nike provides a useful window into the environment those technologies are entering.
The consumer economy is shifting from a model in which powerful brands could control large portions of the shopping journey toward one in which different companies may control discovery, recommendation, transaction and fulfillment. That makes consumer confidence harder to interpret from aggregate spending alone. Two consumers can spend the same amount while behaving very differently: one repeatedly purchasing familiar brands, another continuously optimizing among alternatives. The second environment is substantially more difficult for incumbent retailers even if headline consumption remains resilient.
For all PYMNTS digital transformation and B2B coverage, subscribe to the daily Digital Transformation and B2B Newsletters.
NIKE ve 4. čtvrtletí zvýšila velkoobchodní tržby o 1 %, ale růst táhla hlavně Severní Amerika s +10 %. V Greater China se velkoobchodní prodeje propadly o 19 %.
Key Takeaways NIKE's Q4 wholesale revenues rose 1%, led by a 10% increase in North America.NIKE's Greater China wholesale sales plunged 19% as the market undergoes a broader reset.NIKE is refreshing key franchises and reducing promotions to improve full-price selling and demand. NIKE, Inc. (NKE - Free Report) continues to navigate an uneven sales environment as it works to rebuild momentum across its global business. While the company’s wholesale channel has shown growth, momentum remains mixed across regions and has not been strong enough to fully offset weakness in other parts of the business. Retailers remain cautious amid uncertain consumer spending, while NIKE faces intense competition and changing consumer preferences.
NIKE’s overall wholesale revenues grew 1% in fourth-quarter fiscal 2026, but this masked significant regional differences. North America wholesale was strong, increasing 10%, supported by healthier inventory, lower cancellations, fewer discounts and better full-price realization. Management also noted that NIKE’s revenues and retail sales at Foot Locker turned positive for the first time in four years. This suggests that wholesale relationships in North America are improving.
However, international wholesale performance remained considerably weaker. EMEA wholesale sales declined 1%, while Greater China wholesale plunged 19%. NIKE continues to face elevated inventory levels and promotional pressure in EMEA, while the Chinese market is undergoing a broader reset. In response, the company is tightening purchase orders, reducing future sell-in and working closely with wholesale partners to clear aged inventory.
Nevertheless, NIKE is taking several steps to reignite demand and strengthen its market position. The company is focusing on product innovation, refreshing key franchises and improving its product pipeline to deliver more compelling offerings to consumers. It is also working to rebuild relationships with wholesale partners and improve distribution quality, enabling retailers to offer products that can drive traffic and improve sell-through. NIKE is seeking to strengthen its Direct business through a more balanced marketplace strategy. The company is reducing its reliance on promotions, improving full-price selling and better integrating its digital and physical retail operations.
However, the turnaround is likely to take time. Weakness in certain international markets, cautious consumer demand, elevated competition and challenges in NIKE Direct could continue to pressure sales. The success of NIKE’s product innovation, franchise refreshes and wholesale strategy will therefore be critical to rebuilding consumer demand and strengthening partner relationships. Effective execution across these areas could help the company regain market share and return to sustainable global growth.
NKE’s Peerslululemon athletica inc. (LULU - Free Report) is intensifying its focus on product innovation, newness and technical performance to strengthen consumer appeal. LULU’s international operations remain a key growth driver, aided by strong demand in China and other global markets. lululemon continues to invest in its digital ecosystem, with ongoing efforts to enhance website functionality, personalization and fulfillment capabilities. These initiatives are expected to support customer engagement, improve the shopping experience and drive long-term growth.
adidas AG (ADDYY - Free Report) is pursuing a broad-based growth strategy built around product innovation, performance and lifestyle relevance. Its innovation efforts focus on athlete-led product development, advanced technologies and local consumer insights. adidas is strengthening key performance categories, including Running, Football and Training, through new technologies and athlete-focused products, while simultaneously refreshing ADDYY’s Lifestyle portfolio to maintain consumer appeal across markets.
NKE’S Price Performance, Valuation and EstimatesShares of NIKE have lost 31% in the past six months compared with the industry’s decline of 26.9%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
From a valuation standpoint, NKE trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 19.32X compared with the industry’s average of 17.12X.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NKE’s fiscal 2027 and fiscal 2028 earnings implies year-over-year growth of 7% and 28.3%, respectively. The company’s EPS estimate for fiscal 2027 and fiscal 2028 has moved south in the past seven days.
Nike just lost its seat at the S&P 100 table after 18 years, and the earnings beat that was supposed to signal a comeback may be masking something far more troubling beneath the surface.
This post may contain links from our sponsors and affiliates, and Flywheel Publishing may receive compensation for actions taken through them.
Nike (NYSE:NKE | NKE Price Prediction) faces mounting structural pressure, and here’s exactly why. Effective Sept. 21, the stock is being dropped from the S&P 100 after an 18-year run, capping a slide that has wiped roughly $200 billion from the market cap. It remains in the S&P 500, but the message is the same: shares are down 75.21% over five years and 48.07% in the last 12 months. The pattern points to structural decline in the underlying business.
Headline Earnings Are an Illusion Q4 FY26 looked like a blowout: diluted EPS of $0.72 vs. $0.13 consensus. Strip out a one-time $986 million IEEPA tariff-recovery benefit and underlying EPS was $0.20. Full-year FY26 EPS was $2.10, down 3%; ex-tariff, it was $1.58. Analysts are cutting numbers accordingly. Fiscal 2027 consensus EPS has slipped to $1.7211 from $1.8423 ninety days ago, with 7 downward revisions and zero upward revisions in the last 30 days.
Growth Engines Are Broken Greater China revenue fell 17% in Q4, with Nike Digital in China down 25%. CEO Elliott Hill conceded, “We have to get back to growth in China”, and told investors to expect near-term trends in line with recent performance. Converse keeps bleeding, with revenue down 32% across all territories. Nike Digital fell 12% in Q4 as the direct-to-consumer bet unwinds; that division’s revenue has slid from roughly $21 billion in 2024 to $17.7 billion in 2026. Full-year FY26 revenue of $46.4 billion sits well below $51.4 billion in FY24, and management guided fiscal 2027 revenue to decline low to mid-single digits.
Valuation Isn’t Cheap on Real Earnings At $37, NKE trades at a forward P/E of 22 on estimates that are still being cut. Morgan Stanley resumed coverage with an Underweight rating and $31 price target. The 4.28% dividend yield is real, but the $18 billion buyback authorization saw only $123 million repurchased in FY26, a pace that signals defensive capital management.
Better-Built Alternatives for the Same Exposure The brands taking Nike’s share offer a cleaner read on athletic-footwear demand. Deckers Outdoor (NYSE:DECK), parent of HOKA and UGG, grew Q1 FY27 revenue 5.7% year-over-year to $1.02 billion, with HOKA up 7.7% and direct-to-consumer up 13.0%. Management guides FY27 diluted EPS to $7.35 to $7.50 on gross margin above 56.5%. On Holding (NYSE:ONON) posted Q2 FY26 revenue growth of 13.5% to $1.05 billion, direct-to-consumer up 26%, and a 65.4% gross margin. Nike’s underlying Q4 gross margin, stripping the tariff benefit, was 40.2%. That 25-point margin gap is the story.
Verdict The turnaround case requires two things to change together: Greater China revenue stops declining, and analyst EPS revisions flip positive. Neither is on the horizon.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Akcie Nike letos klesly o 38,12 % a za posledních 12 měsíců o 47,35 %, ale Needham má stále doporučení Buy a cílovou cenu 75 USD, což znamená asi 95% růstový potenciál.
Nike has shed nearly half its value in a year, but one Wall Street analyst sees a path to almost doubling from here while the rest of the Street stays cautious. The question is whether this is a historic buying…
This post may contain links from our sponsors and affiliates, and Flywheel Publishing may receive compensation for actions taken through them.
Nike (NYSE:NKE | NKE Price Prediction) trades at $38.40, well below Wall Street’s average analyst price target of $50.46, a gap that implies roughly 31% upside.
Nike is the world’s largest athletic footwear and apparel brand, and its “Win Now” turnaround under CEO Elliott Hill has become one of the most closely watched consumer stories on Wall Street. At least one prominent shop thinks that consensus target is far too conservative.
How a Blue-Chip Turnaround Story Lost Nearly Half Its Value Nike shares are down 38.12% year to date and 47.35% over the past twelve months, against an S&P 500 up 12.94% and 18.65% across the same windows. Forbes recently flagged Nike’s removal from the S&P 100 as a possible capitulation signal.
The damage is fundamental. Fiscal Q1 2027 revenue slipped 1.1% year over year to $10.97 billion. Greater China fell 12% reported and 17% on a currency-neutral basis. Converse collapsed 32%. Nike Direct shrank 7%, with digital down double digits. The headline EPS beat of $0.72 versus $0.13 consensus looked flattering only because a one-time $986 million IEEPA tariff recovery added $0.52 per share. Strip that out and EPS was $0.20.
Why Needham Sees Nike Nearly Doubling Needham’s Tom Nikic carries a Buy rating and a $75 price target, a level that implies roughly 95% upside from here. His thesis rests on three pillars: wholesale channel realignment, franchise cleansing, and a strategic re-rating tied to Elliott Hill’s operational pivot.
Wholesale is already showing early proof. Nike’s retail-sales comparison at Foot Locker turned positive for the first time in four years in Q4 fiscal 2026, and North America wholesale grew 10%. Needham sees renewed shelf space at Dick’s Sporting Goods, Foot Locker, and specialty running stores as the primary volume engine, reversing years of over-indexing on direct-to-consumer.
Franchise cleansing is the harder story. Nike pulled roughly $2 billion of classic footwear off shelves in fiscal 2026, clearing space for performance platforms like Vomero and Pegasus. Nike Sportswear and Jordan Streetwear, together about half of total revenue, are expected to stay negative through the first half of fiscal 2027.
Consensus stays restrained. Ratings skew Hold-heavy across 39 analysts, and revisions have leaned lower with seven downward EPS cuts in the past 30 days. Nike’s investor day is scheduled for mid-November, and management has said Win Now actions will sunset by the end of calendar 2026. Both are potential re-rating catalysts.
Athletic Peers That Fell Even Harder The premium athletic space has been repriced across the board. Nike has plenty of company on the downside.
Lululemon Athletica (NASDAQ:LULU) is the deepest bruise in the group, down 51.59% year to date including a 17.38% single-session drop after Q2 revenue missed and guidance was cut. LULU trades near $100.61 against a $127.35 average target, implying about 27% upside. Ratings skew defensive: 1 Buy, 29 Hold, 3 Sell, and 1 Strong Sell.
On Holding (NYSE:ONON) is a growth story going through a valuation reset. Q2 revenue climbed 13.5% with a 65.4% gross margin. Shares are off 39.78% YTD at $27.99, versus a $44.69 target, an implied upside of roughly 60%. Analysts stay bullish with 7 Strong Buy and 16 Buy.
Deckers Outdoor (NYSE:DECK), parent of HOKA and UGG, has held up best, off 17.23% YTD. At $85.81 against a $122.81 target, implied upside sits near 43%.
The largest consensus upside in the group sits with On at roughly 60%, then Deckers at 43%, then Nike at 31%. Needham’s outlier $75 target on Nike would make it the biggest opportunity of the four if it plays out.
What the Consensus Really Says About Nike Nike trades at $38.40 with an average analyst target of $50.46, implying about 31% upside. Trailing P/E is 18, forward P/E is 23. Fiscal 2027 EPS consensus sits at $1.72 and fiscal 2028 at $2.23. Nike’s -38.12% YTD trails the S&P 500’s +12.94% by roughly 51 points.
The 39-analyst breakdown:
Strong Buy: 1 Buy: 10 Hold: 25 Sell: 1 Strong Sell: 2 My Take on Nike at Free-Fall Levels Nike looks compelling at these levels if Elliott Hill’s Win Now reset actually sunsets on schedule and North America wholesale momentum proves durable. The bull path is clean: Foot Locker and Dick’s shelves fill with fresh performance product, Vomero and Pegasus scale, China stops sliding, and the November investor day delivers a growth framework worth re-rating on. Get those, and Needham’s $75 stops looking heroic.
But the setup looks like a value trap on several fronts. Revenue is still shrinking. Greater China went from a 7% decline to a 12% decline in two quarters. Converse is in freefall. Nike Digital keeps shrinking. Rivals like On and HOKA keep taking running share. A 4.2% dividend yield and an $18 billion buyback leave a broken top line untouched.
The setup looks cautiously constructive at these levels. Consensus offers real if unspectacular upside, and the Needham call is a genuinely asymmetric bet if the wholesale reset holds. What keeps me off the table is that fiscal 2027 estimates are still being cut. One clean quarter of revenue stabilization would change that.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Nike čelí návrhu akcionářů na přísnější kontrolu charitativních partnerství kvůli vazbám na skupiny podporující genderově afirmativní péči pro nezletilé. Společnost doporučuje hlasovat proti.
A former college soccer player who has emerged as a leading California critic of transgender participation in women’s sports is bringing her fight to Nike — backing a shareholder measure as investors scrutinize corporate ties to groups that support gender-transition care for minors.
Sophia Lorey, 26, was set to address Nike shareholders Tuesday on behalf of a proposal from Christian investment firm Inspire Investing that calls for greater scrutiny of the sneaker giant’s charitable partnerships.
The Vanguard University alum was expected to focus on Nike’s relationship with the Human Rights Campaign, arguing that the company’s support for the LGBTQ advocacy organization clashes with its marketing of women’s athletics, according to Bloomberg, which obtained a recording of her planned remarks.
Sophia Lorey, a former Vanguard University soccer player and outreach director for the California Family Council, has been tapped to speak in support of an investor proposal at Nike’s annual meeting Tuesday. Instagram/@sophiaslorey The Nike vote is part of a wider pressure campaign by Inspire, which manages $5.4 billion and has been questioning scores of major corporations about their policies on transgender issues.
The investment firm and its allies have contacted 242 employers seeking information about whether their health insurance plans pay for gender-related surgeries for minors, Bloomberg reported.
That campaign is separate from the Nike proxy measure backed by Lorey, a proposal that focuses on potential risks stemming from the company’s charitable giving.
Lorey was set to invoke Nike campaigns including “Play Like a Girl” and “Get Her in the Game” while challenging the sports giant’s association with groups that support transgender women competing in women’s fields, according to Bloomberg.
The shareholder proposal cites an Equal Employment Opportunity Commission investigation involving allegations of systemic race discrimination at Nike.
Former college soccer player Sophia Lorey has become a prominent advocate against allowing transgender athletes to compete in girls’ and women’s sports. Vimeo/Inspire
Nike is urging shareholders to reject a proposal calling for greater scrutiny of risks associated with the sneaker giant’s charitable partnerships. SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images “Given the EEOC’s current high-profile investigation into Nike over ‘systemic race discrimination allegations’ occurring partially as a result of the company’s diversity, equity, and inclusion initiatives, investors are right to be concerned about what further brand politicization could do to company performance,” the proposal states.
Nike has told shareholders to reject the measure, maintaining that another examination of its charitable relationships would duplicate safeguards already in place.
“Charitable partnerships are approved … only after a robust due diligence review of the proposed recipient organization,” Nike’s board said in a regulatory filing cited by Bloomberg.
Sophia Lorey (center) is seen in front of the Supreme Court Building in Washington, D.C., in a photo posted to Instagram on Jan. 14, 2026. Instagram/@sophiaslorey Lorey brings an athletic background to the campaign.
The 5-foot-4 defender played women’s soccer at Vanguard from 2018 through 2021 and majored in business administration, according to university records. Vanguard competed in the NAIA during her career.
She joined the California Family Council as outreach director in 2022 and has since become a prominent advocate against transgender athletes competing in girls’ and women’s sports.
Her advocacy has also extended into schools. In July, a podcast she co-hosts promoted a campaign helping parents seek exemptions for their children from what the program called “gender ideology lessons, CRT, DEI programming” and other curriculum conflicting with their religious beliefs.
Meanwhile, Inspire has broadened its corporate campaign with backing from investors that collectively oversee more than $100 billion, according to the firm’s director of corporate engagement, Tim Schwarzenberger.
The 242 companies approached by the coalition were identified partly through the Human Rights Campaign’s Corporate Equality Index, Bloomberg reported. Inspire is seeking disclosures about their insurance coverage and other policies involving transgender issues.
Start your day with all you need to know Morning Report delivers the latest news, videos, photos and more.
Thanks for signing up!
“We feel that this is an important topic, there’s regulatory, legal and financial risks,” Schwarzenberger told Bloomberg. “We think shareholders have a right to know, have a right to transparency.”
According to Inspire, Walmart told the group that its plans do not pay for gender surgeries for minors. Charles Schwab told the group it previously offered such coverage but had stopped, Bloomberg reported. Neither company commented to the outlet.
Nike has become the latest target of a conservative investor campaign scrutinizing corporate policies involving transgender issues. Getty Images The Human Rights Campaign has pushed back against the campaign, arguing that conservative shareholder initiatives targeting diversity and LGBTQ policies have failed to attract significant support from investors.
“There is no question that extraordinary political and legal pressure has made some companies less willing to publicly document their LGBTQ+ workplace practices,” HRC senior vice president Jonathan Lovitz told Bloomberg.
“But less disclosure doesn’t mean … that they have actually changed practices internally,” he added.
