In this patch of your weekly Dispatch:ECB decides on ratesIs AI earning?BTC inflows returnMarket cast
BTC: Bulls regain controlBitcoin's weekly chart shows a constructive setup taking shape. Price has bounced off the 200-period SMA and is now heading toward the middle Bollinger Band (the 20-period SMA) – a key volatility indicator. The RSI, a momentum oscillator, remains neutral but with its signal line trending upward, while the Stochastic, another momentum oscillator, is similarly neutral yet climbing. The MACD, a trend and momentum indicator, has generated a bullish crossover, reinforcing the constructive tone.
The daily chart tells an even more bullish story. Price has reached the upper Bollinger Band, with the RSI elevated and rising. The Stochastic sits in overbought territory but shows no signs of fading momentum, while the MACD histogram remains positive and rising – all pointing to bullish momentum building across both timeframes.
Key levels to watch: On the downside, immediate support sits around $64,000, with the next significant zone near $62,000; the weekly 200-period SMA could also serve as dynamic support. To the upside, the first resistance comes in around $67,000, followed by $70,000.
The big idea
Argentina’s first place in the stablecoin finalsArgentina gave everything it had in an intense, extra-time battle against Spain – this got us thinking about another arena where Argentina isn't just competing, it's setting the pace: stablecoins.
There's a reason the country is such fertile ground: currency debasement — a case playing out well beyond Argentina's borders. The peso has weakened substantially against the dollar over the past several years, with inflation still running above 30% year-over-year — one data point in a much broader global pattern. Turkey, Nigeria, and Lebanon have all seen annual inflation swing anywhere from 50% to 200% in recent years, and in each case, dollar-pegged stablecoins have become the accessible workaround — a way to hold something resembling a dollar without needing an actual bank account in dollars, especially where capital controls make that difficult.
Zoom out globally, and the numbers back up the hype. Citi's base case now puts the stablecoin market at $1.9 trillion by 2030, with a bull case as high as $4 trillion — both revised upward from last year's forecasts, while Standard Chartered projects the market hitting $2 trillion as soon as 2028. Citi and Brookfield research goes further still, suggesting stablecoins in circulation could grow as much as 15-fold by 2030. Tokenized real-world assets are riding a similar wave: RWAs (excluding stablecoin issuers themselves) hit a record $33 billion in Q2, up 45% year-to-date, led by tokenized Treasurys, corporate credit, stocks, and venture capital.
Visa's latest report with Artemis makes the case that stablecoins will quietly take over the sub-dollar "micro-commerce" machines that will transact with each other, while cards keep the bigger-ticket purchases. It's one of several backers, alongside Mastercard and BlackRock, of the new Open USD stablecoin — a reminder that the real story isn't one network's report, it's a scramble among all of them to not get left behind.
That scramble is playing out well beyond payment networks. Japan's JCB is piloting stablecoin rails with Circle, and convenience store chain Lawson will accept stablecoins starting in August. Sony just secured preliminary U.S. approval for its own dollar-backed stablecoin trust — a closed-loop network with no confirmed link to PlayStation purchases yet, but a clear signal of where large consumer platforms think payments are heading.
Tether, meanwhile, is finding traction at the sovereign level: Bolivia is weighing a framework to formally recognize USDT as a payment currency alongside the boliviano and the dollar, a response to a prolonged dollar shortage after the country abandoned its currency peg earlier this year.
The common thread echoes past tech cycles: the biggest gains rarely come from the invention itself, but from the infrastructure built around it. Railroads didn't drive industrialization — the surrounding logistics network did. Electrification wasn't about the light bulb, but the grid. Stablecoins may follow the same script: the lasting value may sit less with the coins and more with the issuance platforms, custody systems, and compliance tooling that connect them to the existing financial system.
Argentina may have to wait four more years for its next shot at the trophy. Stablecoins won't wait for anyone — but the real contest to watch isn't between coins, it's for the rails underneath them. That's where the next decade of returns will likely be decided.
TradFi trends
Big Тech earnings season startsAfter a rough week that saw the Nasdaq shed 2.9% amid a brutal semiconductor sell-off, attention turns to the Magnificent Seven — Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Nvidia, and Tesla — the handful of mega-cap tech names that have driven much of the market's AI-fueled gains. Alphabet and Tesla are both due to report Wednesday, with the rest of the group's earnings continuing to roll out over the coming weeks. The chip rout has wiped out more than $3 trillion in market value since June 22, much of it rotating into these names — making their earnings a real-time test of whether AI-driven optimism still justifies today's valuations, or whether the pullback becomes something broader.
Crypto has a stake in the outcome too. The AI trade has arguably pulled some capital away from Bitcoin over recent months, even as the two show some degree of correlation as risk assets. A wobble in Big Tech earnings could test whether that relationship holds, as Bitcoin continues working toward a decisive push above $65,000 to confirm its own recovery.
Oil climbs, inflation cools, and the ECB weighs the next moveMarkets head into the week caught between rising geopolitical risk and diverging central bank paths. Crude oil has climbed sharply on continued Middle East tensions, while cooling inflation data has traders leaning toward a Fed hold — even as the ECB faces a tougher call of its own, deciding without the benefit of fresh Q2 growth or inflation data.
ECB Rate Decision (Jul 23): Fresh off a June hike to 2.25%, markets lean toward a hold, though a hawkish tail remains.Weekly Jobless Claims (Jul 24): A rising trend would strengthen the case for eventual easing.S&P Global PMI (Jul 25): This week's main growth signal.Alphabet & Tesla Earnings (this week): An early read on whether tech's momentum still holds.The week's most interesting data story
Bitcoin’s clearest signs of recovery?Bitcoin ETF flows have become one of the market's most closely tracked sentiment gauges, since they capture real money moving in or out of Bitcoin exposure on a daily basis. This week's data leans encouraging: US spot Bitcoin ETFs notched a second straight week of inflows, pulling in $75.7 million for the week ending July 17, building on the $197.4 million added the week before. It's a modest pace compared to earlier highs, but after a rocky June, two consecutive green weeks are a welcome signal that buying interest is returning. The next test: whether Bitcoin can push decisively above the $65,000-$65,500 range, to help confirm the recovery has legs.
The numbers
The week’s most interesting numbers$727.3 million — US spot Bitcoin ETFs' haul over their longest inflow streak in nearly three months, five days running.
$70,000–$72,000 — Where Bitcoin's biggest options bets are clustered for July 31, a $2.5 billion bullish spread landing two days after the Fed's next decision.
110 — The number of reasons Michael Saylor cited in a critique of BIP-110, a proposal to restrict Bitcoin "spam," which he argues threatens the network's neutrality.
Hot topic
What the community is discussingThe never-ending Bull vs Bear duel.
Still early and big at the same time.
Another perspective on Bitcoin ETFs.
Dispatch is a weekly publication by Nexo, designed to help you navigate and take action in the evolving world of digital assets. To share your Dispatch suggestions and comments, email us at [email protected].
In this patch of your weekly Dispatch:Altcoins round-upApple’s stock recordBitcoin’s starting recovery?Market cast
BTC: Bullish momentum buildsBitcoin's weekly chart is showing bullish momentum developing. Price has moved back above the 200-period SMA, a key long-term trend indicator. The RSI, a momentum oscillator, sits in neutral territory, while the Stochastic, another momentum oscillator, has crossed above the 20-level threshold – a move that could signal a trend reversal. The MACD, a trend and momentum indicator, has its signal lines edging close to a bullish crossover, adding to the constructive tone.
The daily chart tells a similarly bullish story. Price has crossed above the 50-period SMA and is now heading toward the upper Bollinger Band – a volatility indicator. RSI remains neutral, and while the Stochastic lines sit in overbought territory, they show no signs of fading momentum. The MACD histogram, meanwhile, sits comfortably in positive territory – all pointing to bullish momentum across both timeframes.
Key levels to watch: On the downside, immediate support sits around $62,000, with the next significant zone near $58,000–$59,000; the daily middle Bollinger Band could also serve as dynamic support. To the upside, the first resistance comes in around $65,000, followed by $67,000.
The big idea
Bitcoin's CPI moment: Macro comes back into focusTime and again this year, Bitcoin has gone looking for a catalyst, only to run headlong into geopolitics instead. Every attempt at a clean, rates-driven story got knocked off course by fresh friction out of the Middle East. Tuesday’s US CPI report gave Bitcoin a real one — and a friendly one at that.
June's headline inflation cooled sharply to 3.5% annually, well below the 3.8% consensus and down from 4.2% in May, with prices actually falling 0.4% on the month — the largest one-month drop since April 2020, and well past the mild 0.1% decline economists had expected. Core CPI told the same story: flat month-over-month against expectations for a rise, pulling the annual core rate down to 2.6% from 2.9% — a much bigger step toward the Fed's target than anyone had priced in.
That's not the "calm, in-line" outcome the market had been bracing for — it's a genuine downside surprise, and Bitcoin treated it as one. BTC quickly reacted by reaching toward $64,000 right after the release, climbing roughly 1% from around $62,800.
The bigger story is what it did to rate expectations. Markets are now pricing an 83% chance the Fed holds rates steady at the July 28–29 meeting, versus just 17% odds of a hike — a sharp reversal from the mood following Governor Waller's hawkish comments last week, when a hike looked like a live possibility. With a rate hike now largely off the table, one of the biggest overhangs on Bitcoin this year has meaningfully eased.
There's backup from other corners of the analyst community too. Standard Chartered reiterated its $100,000 year-end Bitcoin target this week, calling current levels near $64,000 "a screaming buy." Bitwise strikes a similar note, arguing the industry is twice the size it was at the last cycle's bottom despite bear-market prices, and flagging July's historically strong seasonality — Bitcoin has averaged a 10.7% gain in the month — as another reason for optimism. CryptoQuant adds to that seasonality case: in past bear-market years like 2018 and 2022, Bitcoin rallied roughly 17-20% in July alone, with the firm noting early signs that demand is already re-igniting off the recent lows. The on-chain picture backs up that optimism as Nexo analyst Dessislava Ianeva notes that spot selling pressure has faded. More on that in this week’s data story below.
If the last two issues were about regulatory clarity, this week looks like it's shaping up to be about macroeconomic clarity instead. Tuesday’s numbers make that label easier to defend: a clean downside surprise on both headline and core inflation, paired with rate-hike odds falling to just 17%, removes a real source of uncertainty rather than simply confirming expectations. That said, new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh struck a notably hawkish tone in his first Congressional testimony the same day, insisting the Fed has "no tolerance" for persistently high inflation and pushing back on any expectation of a policy pivot. One cool print hasn't changed the Fed's messaging, even if it's changed the market's odds. It's still one data point, and Bitcoin will likely keep reacting to whatever comes out of the Gulf too — but rates just handed the market a genuinely bullish tailwind to work with.
Bottom line: June inflation came in well below expectations on every measure, and the Fed now looks unlikely to hike this month — a clear, dovish surprise that gives Bitcoin's macro-driven recovery case its best data point yet, with BTC quickly reacting toward $64,000 right after the release.
Blue chips
Ethereum outperforms as its next chapter comes into focusETH was one of the better performers recently, up over to roughly $1,770 at the start of the week, as Bitcoin held firm above $63,000. That put it ahead of most majors, and it came despite wobbly AI stocks and a stronger dollar – two things that usually drag crypto down with them. Ethereum didn't just hold up; it led the pack.
The timing is fitting. Vitalik Buterin just dropped his vision for "Lean Ethereum", a multi-year rebuild he's calling the network's third major era – right up there with the Merge. The headline: a data storage redesign that could slash fees for everyday tokens and apps by 10x or more, no rewrites required. Quantum resistance and privacy are also getting fast-tracked as core priorities, not afterthoughts. Put together, it's a good reminder that Ethereum's momentum isn't only about price – there's real groundwork being laid for the next decade.
TradFi trends
Apple reaches ATH on AI memoryWhile Bitcoin watches the Fed, Apple is riding a different macro story — and it's paying off. Shares hit an all-time high on July 13, closing at $317.31 (a $4.7 trillion market cap), as an AI-driven memory chip shortage splits the smartphone market in two.
The cause: memory chips now cost nearly triple last year's price, as hyperscalers buy up supply for AI training. That's gutted margins for budget phone makers while barely touching Apple, which locked in supply early. Global smartphone shipments fell 6.7% last quarter, but Apple's grew 15.3% — best in years, alongside Samsung as the only other top-five vendor to grow. Institutions had already positioned for it, adding roughly 1.24 billion shares ahead of the rebound. The open question: with the memory crunch expected to run into 2028, whether buyers keep absorbing Apple's rising costs — a test the July 30 earnings print should help answer.
The week's most interesting data story
Bitcoin’s clearest signs of recovery?This week's chart adds a useful data point to the macro story: the market may be working through its last bit of overhand supply. A key on-chain metric — the share of realized value coming from longer-term holders adjusting their positions, recently reached its highest level since December 2022. In practice, this reflects holders who've been through months of drawdown finally deciding to move on, a pattern that has historically shown up in the later stages of a market finding its footing rather than at the start of a fresh leg down.
That matters because this kind of activity tends to be one of the last steps in a market working through excess supply. Once that cohort finishes repositioning, there's less overhead pressure weighing on price, which can set the stage for a steadier recovery.
The numbers
The week’s most interesting numbers$200,000 — A solo miner's payout from hitting a Bitcoin block with a hobbyist-grade Bitaxe, running just ~1 terahash per second for eight hours.
$50.85 billion — Cumulative net inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs since launch, a milestone that's held even through a choppy July.
$10.5 billion — Bitmine Immersion's ether treasury value, now the largest corporate ether stash and second only to Strategy's bitcoin position globally.
$3 billion — Strategy's USD reserve balance after a $450 million boost last week — funded via share sales, with its 843,775 BTC treasury untouched.
Hot topic
What the community is discussingFOMO time for XRP?
There is no stopping the long-term HODLER.
The power of Bitcoin as collateral.
Dispatch is a weekly publication by Nexo, designed to help you navigate and take action in the evolving world of digital assets. To share your Dispatch suggestions and comments, email us at [email protected].
The award-winning, world-first crypto debit-and-credit card arrives in Argentina alongside a leadership transition, positioning Buenos Aires as Nexo's regional hub for Latin America.
Buenos Aires, July 08, 2026 — Nexo, the premier digital assets wealth platform, today launched the Nexo Card in Argentina, timed with the appointment of Andres Ondarra as General Manager, Nexo Argentina. These two milestones mark the next stage of Nexo's growth in a market where digital asset adoption runs deeper than almost anywhere else — the highest share of any market surveyed.
The Nexo Card lets clients spend digital assets directly in debit mode or borrow against them as collateral in credit mode, without selling — switching between the two in a single interface. New clients get 10% back on their first swipe, plus additional cashback and milestone rewards worth up to USD 450 in total over their first three months as they earn up to 13% annual interest on idle in-app balances, paid daily. Cardholders also get fee-free ATM withdrawals of up to USD 1,000 and fee-free foreign-currency spending of up to USD 2,000 each month, alongside a monthly rebate on a leading subscription service and annual airport lounge access with fast-track security. The card has been recognized by the Digital Banker Awards, the FinTech Breakthrough Awards, and the PAY360 Awards.
Powerful benefits, no matter how you spend.Spending in ARS and US$: Clients can pay in pesos at home with no currency conversion, or spend US$ at over 100 million merchants worldwide.Borrowing from 1.9% per year: Users can spend against their crypto with the only crypto credit card of its kind in Argentina.Interest on account balance: Nexo clients can receive up to 13% per year on the funds they haven't spent, paid out daily.No monthly, annual, or inactivity fees — plus a monthly allowance of up to US$1,000 in ATM withdrawals.Stay in control at all times: Various ways to manage your spending, balances, and rewards in-app, complete with card freezes, spending controls, and biometric locks.Beyond everyday spending: Clients can unlock airport lounge access, fast-track security, and rebates on subscriptions like Netflix and Spotify as your portfolio grows."Argentine clients have spent a decade making digital assets part of how they manage wealth. The Nexo Card is built precisely for that — letting them spend in debit mode, borrow against their holdings in credit mode, and earn from every transaction, all without having to sell. It's the freedom to live on that wealth, not just hold it," said Andres Ondarra, incoming General Manager, Nexo Argentina.
Ondarra brings more than 25 years of experience across traditional finance, fintech, and crypto in Latin America, including a background in Wall Street investment banking. From August 1, he will lead Nexo Argentina's operations, with a focus on client trust and the company's continued growth in the country.
He succeeds Federico Ogue, who oversaw Nexo's Argentine expansion and is transitioning to a new entrepreneurial venture. "Argentina has one of the most sophisticated crypto and fintech ecosystems in the region, and the work Nexo has done here is something to be proud of. I look forward to passing the baton to Andres, who brings exactly the experience and vision to lead Nexo's next stage of growth in Argentina," said Ogue.
Argentina processed approximately USD 93.9 billion in digital-asset transactions over three years, ranking second in Latin America behind Brazil. With capital already moved into digital assets, the Nexo Card addresses what comes next: everyday utility — spending, borrowing, and earning from those holdings without selling them.
With Buenos Aires now established as a regional hub, Nexo is investing in local infrastructure, sport partnerships — including the AFA — and a local team supporting clients across Latin America. Eligible clients in Argentina can apply for the Nexo Card through the Nexo app and website.
About Nexo
Nexo is a premier digital assets wealth platform designed to empower clients to grow, manage, and preserve their crypto holdings. Nexo’s mission is to lead the next generation of wealth creation by focusing on customer success and delivering tailored solutions that build enduring value, supported by 24/7 client care.
Since 2018, Nexo has provided unmatched opportunities to forward-thinking clients in over 199 jurisdictions. With over $7 billion in client assets and over $430 billion processed, we bring lasting value to millions worldwide. Nexo’s all-in-one platform combines advanced technology with a client-first approach, offering high-yield flexible and fixed-term savings, crypto-backed loans, sophisticated trading tools, and the world's first dual-mode crypto credit-and-debit card. Built on deep industry expertise, a sustainable business model, robust infrastructure, stringent security, and global licensing, Nexo champions innovation and long-lasting prosperity.
Official website: nexo.com
Media contact
Nexo Communications Team — [email protected]
In this patch of your weekly Dispatch:Crypto clarity gets priced inEthereum's next chapter beginsStablecoins hit a record highMarket cast
BTC action turns constructive?Bitcoin's weekly chart is showing early signs of stabilization. Price bounced off the lower Bollinger Band – a volatility indicator, and is now hovering around the 200-period SMA, a key long-term trend indicator. The RSI, a momentum oscillator, sits at very low levels, on the verge of oversold, while the Stochastic, another momentum oscillator, is turning up from oversold territory – hinting that bearish momentum may be starting to fade. The MACD histogram, a trend and momentum indicator, is hovering near the zero line, leaving the broader trend without a clear tilt just yet.
The daily chart tells a more constructive story. Price bounced off the lower Bollinger Band, crossed above the 20-period SMA, and is now heading toward the upper Bollinger Band. The Stochastic lines have moved into overbought territory while RSI sits neutral, and the MACD histogram is deep in positive territory – all pointing to stronger near-term momentum than the weekly picture alone would suggest.
Key levels to watch: On the downside, immediate support sits around $61,000, with the next significant zone near $58,000–$59,000. To the upside, the first resistance comes in around $64,000, followed by $67,000.
The big idea
Regulatory clarity is leading the wayFor most of the past years, crypto traded under a cloud of overlapping unclarity — nobody quite knew where US rates were headed, how the EU would actually enforce the MiCA rulebook, or whether Washington would ever agree on a framework of its own. That fog is lifting gradually, and it's happening on multiple fronts at once.
US: Start with the Fed. Kevin Warsh's first meeting as chair on June 17 came with a shorter, blunter statement and a dot plot showing nine of eighteen officials projecting a hike before year-end — a sharp shift from March's median forecast of a cut. Warsh himself submitted no dot, but the tone was unmistakably hawkish, and futures markets moved with it: traders are now pricing a quarter-point hike as the base case by October. This Wednesday's FOMC minutes are the first real test of how much of that hawkishness holds once the room isn't watching, and June's CPI print on July 14 will matter more than anything said in a press conference. By the July 28–29 decision, markets will know which read was right. The gap to watch: the dot plot moved before the data did, and markets have already followed the dot plot — if inflation cools even modestly between now and the CPI print, that repricing could just as easily reverse.
Europe already has its answer. Since MiCA’s grandfathering period ended on July 1, regulatory clarity has shifted from a policy debate to an economic variable. Authorization now determines who can scale across the EEA, serve, and build durable distribution. With only an estimated 17–20% of the roughly 1,200 previously registered firms making the transition, regulatory approval has become one of the sector’s scarcest assets.
The bar was deliberately high, and the firms that cleared it did the work. As regulatory uncertainty recedes, markets are beginning to recognize that discipline has value. Businesses operating within a predictable legal framework benefit from lower risk premiums, stronger investor confidence, and greater strategic flexibility. In Europe, compliance is no longer simply the cost of doing business—it is becoming a source of competitive advantage and long-term enterprise value.
The US isn't quite there yet, but it's closer than it's ever been. The CLARITY Act cleared the Senate Banking Committee in May, sits on the Senate calendar, and missed its symbolic July 4 target — a timing slip, not a stall. Lawmakers are now eyeing late July or early August, against a shrinking window before recess and midterm politics take over. If it lands, it does for US jurisdiction what MiCA just did for the European Economic Area.
Where does this leave the market? Two of the industry's largest markets– the US and the EU – are moving from "if" to "when" on their regulations within the same year — but the convergence isn't the real story. What matters is that clarity doesn't reward the sector evenly; it rewards preparation and effort. Clarity is becoming the foundation that decides who gets to build in the space.
Ethereum
Ethereum outperforms as its next chapter comes into focusETH was one of the better performers recently, up over to roughly $1,770 at the start of the week, as Bitcoin held firm above $63,000. That put it ahead of most majors, and it came despite wobbly AI stocks and a stronger dollar – two things that usually drag crypto down with them. Ethereum didn't just hold up; it led the pack.
The timing is fitting. Vitalik Buterin just dropped his vision for "Lean Ethereum", a multi-year rebuild he's calling the network's third major era – right up there with the Merge. The headline: a data storage redesign that could slash fees for everyday tokens and apps by 10x or more, no rewrites required. Quantum resistance and privacy are also getting fast-tracked as core priorities, not afterthoughts. Put together, it's a good reminder that Ethereum's momentum isn't only about price – there's real groundwork being laid for the next decade.
TradFi trends
SpaceX joins the Nasdaq-100SpaceX enters the Nasdaq-100 before Tuesday's open, just weeks after its June 12 IPO valued the company near $2 trillion. The stock has since dropped roughly 29% from its all-time high, closing Monday at $160.42.
Funds that automatically track the Nasdaq-100 now have to buy SpaceX shares to keep matching the index – but JPMorgan expects that buying to be modest, since SpaceX only makes up about 1.3% of it, ranking around 21st behind names like Nvidia and Tesla. Meanwhile, early investors and employees start becoming free to sell over the next few months, which could offset much of that buying, with Musk's own stake locked up for a year.
Macroeconomic roundup
Fed minutes, gold dips, and a sliding yenThe big date this week is Wednesday, July 8 – FOMC minutes from last month's meeting. It's the first real window into how new Fed voices are thinking, and whether the hawkish rate outlook still holds up after a soft jobs report. Weekly jobless claims land the next day and could add more fuel either way. Markets are watching closely for any signal on where rates head next.
Elsewhere, JPMorgan just got more cautious on gold, slashing its Q4 2026 target by 25% to $4,500 (from $6,000), citing softer near-term demand – though it's still bullish long-term on central bank buying. And the yen keeps sliding: Goldman Sachs now sees it weakening to 165 per dollar within a year, one of the gloomier calls on Wall Street, as the currency sits at its weakest since 1986.
The week's most interesting data story
Bitcoin buyers are coming backAfter several months of net distribution, Bitcoin's Accumulation Trend Score has shifted meaningfully higher over the past month, with buying activity becoming increasingly broad-based across the investor spectrum. Smaller holders (under 1 BTC) and mid-size wallets (100–1,000 BTC) are showing the strongest accumulation, both nearing peak trend scores. Larger cohorts, including 1,000–10,000 BTC wallets, have also turned net buyers, though with less intensity than earlier in the cycle.
This synchronized improvement across multiple investor groups suggests confidence is gradually rebuilding, with participants increasingly willing to absorb supply near current levels, according to Glassnode analysts. Periods of broad-based accumulation like this have historically provided a constructive foundation for longer-term recoveries, though sustained buying will be key to confirming the trend.
The numbers
The week’s most interesting numbers$265 million — U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs' largest inflow in over a month on Monday, following July 2's break from an outflow streak.
33x — Upside Standard Chartered sees in Morpho by 2030, with a fresh $60 price target.
$1.79 trillion — Record stablecoin transaction volume in June, up 63% from May and 125% year-over-year.
$150,000 – Bernstein's year-end bitcoin price target, held despite the current 54% drawdown from October's peak.
Hot topic
What the community is discussingA BTC signal from the options markets?
The corporate ETH strategy continues?
The HODLers’ mindset.
Dispatch is a weekly publication by Nexo, designed to help you navigate and take action in the evolving world of digital assets. To share your Dispatch suggestions and comments, email us at [email protected].
Today, we are announcing a new milestone in our journey in Argentina: Andrés Ondarra will be taking the reins as our General Manager for Argentina, reinforcing our commitment to this strategic market for the development of digital asset solutions.
In his new role, Andrés will lead local operations with a focus on strengthening client trust, supporting the responsible adoption of crypto tools, and consolidating our value proposition in the country. He brings more than two decades of experience at the intersection of traditional finance, fintech, and crypto in Latin America, leading regional operations in the digital assets sector. With his previous experience in investment banking on Wall Street and deep knowledge of the Argentine market, Andrés has a strong understanding of the regulatory environment and the ability to scale financial platforms in dynamic and highly competitive contexts.
Argentina is a market with enormous potential for the evolution of digital assets. Taking on this role at Nexo represents a great opportunity to continue building trust, bringing valuable solutions closer to clients, and contributing to the development of a stronger, more inclusive ecosystem. I strongly believe in the impact that fintech and blockchain can have across the region, and I am very excited to join a global team that combines innovation, experience, and a clear service-oriented mindset.
Andrés Ondarra, our new General Manager for Argentina.Handing over the role of General Manager for Nexo Argentina is Federico Ogue, who was instrumental in supporting Nexo’s evolution and presence in Argentina so far. Federico’s role at Nexo will be gradually handed over to Andrés over a one-month smooth transition period, before he moves on to his next project.
Argentina has one of the most sophisticated crypto and fintech ecosystems in the region, and the work we've done here is something to be proud of. The decision to step down comes from my desire to pursue a new entrepreneurial chapter. I look forward to passing on the baton to Andrés, who brings exactly the experience and vision needed to lead Nexo's next stage of growth in Argentina.
Federico OgueWe are extremely grateful to Federico Ogue for what he helped us accomplish so far, and we look forward to seeing Andrés apply his experience, market knowledge, and vision to build on our offering in Argentina and the broader LATAM region.
In this patch of your weekly Dispatch:Will BTC buyers return?Support in the chartsThe week’s key numbersMarket cast
BTC: Another test of support Bitcoin's weekly chart is showing genuine technical strain. Price has broken below the 200-period SMA — a key long-term trend indicator, and is now hovering near the lower Bollinger Band, a volatility indicator, signaling the move lower has stretched further than usual. The RSI, a momentum oscillator, is approaching the 30 threshold, while the Stochastic, another momentum oscillator, is already in oversold territory – both flagging that selling pressure is becoming extended. The MACD histogram, a trend and momentum indicator, sits just below the zero line, keeping the broader trend tilted bearish for now.
The daily chart echoes that tone. Price is trading below most key moving averages and sitting close to the lower Bollinger Band, with the RSI and Stochastic oscillators both edging toward oversold readings. The one steadier note is the MACD histogram, which is holding just above the zero line — a small sign that near-term momentum hasn't fully broken down even as the broader structure stays cautious.
Key levels to watch: On the downside, immediate support sits around $59,000, with the next significant level near $55,000. To the upside, the first resistance comes in around $61,000, followed by $64,000.
The big idea
The new MiCA eraOn July 1, 2024, MiCA came into force across the European Economic Area. It established a regulatory perimeter for digital asset custody, capital adequacy, and consumer protection. Within 24 hours, the market absorbed what this meant: the EEA would optimize for institutional accountability and consumer protection in digital asset services. Capital routes accordingly.
But MiCA is not unique in making this choice. Every major regulatory framework makes one. Basel prices bank capital adequacy. GDPR prices personal data protection. MiCA prices consumer protection and institutional accountability in custody. Singapore's MAS prices institutional sophistication and wealth management integration. Dubai's VARA prices operational speed and market sovereignty. Hong Kong's SFC prices settlement infrastructure and cross-border integration. Each framework is a different answer to the question: what should this market optimize for? The distinction matters because it determines which capital stays and which leaves.
The priorities
Consider what each framework requires platforms to absorb: MiCA mandates qualified custody, segregated client assets, minimum capital reserves, and enforceable grievance procedures. These are non-negotiable and costly. A platform in the EEA cannot operate without them. The cost is built into the business model. In exchange, the framework guarantees that institutional capital – pension funds, family offices, wealth managers—can be allocated to authorized platforms with the same due diligence they apply in traditional finance. Retail clients have enforceable rights. The regulator is accessible.
This pricing structure attracts specific capital: generational wealth transfers, institutional allocations, and long-term holders who value custody certainty.
What frameworks price
The capital split post-July 1 is not a flaw in MiCA. EEA retail and institutional capital that prioritizes custody certainty, regulatory accessibility, and enforceable rights concentrates under authorized MiCA platforms. This is not capital disappearing from crypto. It is capital being sorted by market design.
In traditional finance, this happened post-2008. Prime brokerage consolidated among a smaller number of highly-regulated, well-capitalized players. Higher-risk strategies, proprietary trading, and marginal capital routed to shadow banking and offshore structures. Systemic risk did not disappear—it relocated. The system became two-tiered: a regulated core and an unregulated periphery, each with its own capital sources and risk profiles.
MiCA creates the same structure.
What this reveals about market structure
The architecture is revealing because it answers a question the industry has avoided for over a decade: what does a mature digital asset market actually need? Digital assets began as a rejection of institutional gatekeeping. The original premise was that decentralized networks could replace custodians, that users could be their own banks, that regulation was unnecessary friction. A decade later, the market's answer is more complicated.
Institutional capital entering digital assets does not want to be its own bank. Pension funds do not want custody risk on their balance sheet. Family offices do not want to operate their own cold storage. Sovereign wealth funds do not want regulatory ambiguity. These institutions have options. If digital assets cannot deliver the same custody certainty, capital protection, and regulatory transparency they get in traditional finance, they do not allocate.
MiCA's pricing structure acknowledges this. It says: if you want institutional capital, you absorb the cost of custody infrastructure, capital adequacy, and regulatory compliance. The next 18 months will show which hypotheses the market validates.
The EEA consolidation effect
For the EEA specifically, July 1 forces a choice. Platforms either pay the cost of MiCA compliance or exit the market. There is no middle ground.
This creates consolidation. Smaller platforms cannot absorb the compliance cost. Marginal operators disappear. Capital concentrates under players with the scale and capital to meet minimum requirements and still compete on execution, fees, and product quality.
This is not a problem for the regulated core. Consolidation is stability. Fewer, larger, better-capitalized platforms means lower systemic failure risk and clearer customer protection. The cost is reduced competition and potentially higher fees.
The question is not whether MiCA is "good" regulation. It is whether the cost of compliance is worth the benefit of accessing EEA institutional capital. For platforms whose business model depends on that capital, the answer is yes.
The real question
MiCA reveals that regulatory frameworks do not price trust. They price market design.
Capital will route according to which optimization matches its needs. Institutional capital will split between frameworks that can deliver custody certainty, and frameworks that can deliver operational speed. Retail capital will split between regulated certainty and speculative access. Speculative capital will concentrate in non-custodial spaces where regulatory overhead is zero.
None of these flows disappears. They sort. And the next competitive cycle will be determined not by which framework is "best," but by which markets built the infrastructure to actually deliver on the priorities they priced.
Eleonor Genova, Head of Communications, Nexo
The week's most interesting data story
Time for BTC buyers to step in?This week's chart shows where recent buyers got in, and why that's capping Bitcoin's upside for now. The heatmap maps short-term holder supply density across price levels — brighter bands mark where more coins were acquired. The densest cluster sits between $66,800 and $70,700, a pocket of recently bought coins now underwater. Holders near breakeven tend to sell into any bounce just to exit even, making that zone the likely ceiling for a near-term recovery. It's not permanent, though: a sustained reclaim above $66,800 would ease that pressure and open the path toward the broader Short-Term Holder Cost Basis at $71,400, the next level to watch.
The numbers
The week’s most interesting numbers¥162/$ — The yen hit its weakest level since 1986, even as Bitcoin's correlation with it hit -0.90, the tightest since 2022 — a setup that could now favor Bitcoin if the yen rebounds.
$570 — Benchmark reiterated its $570 price target on Strategy after the company unveiled a framework to buy back shares and sell up to $1.25 billion of its 847,363 BTC if needed.
5.70 million ETH — Bitmine added 27,084 ETH last week, reaching 94% of its target of owning 5% of Ethereum's supply, and joined the Russell 1000 index.
72% — XRP's daily active addresses jumped to nearly 39,500 in two weeks, while open interest hit its lowest since July 2025 — a cleaner setup for the next move.
Hot topic
What the community is discussingIs this the great Bitcoin consolidation?
Last week’s market correction explained.
Is an altcoin summer coming?
Dispatch is a weekly publication by Nexo, designed to help you navigate and take action in the evolving world of digital assets. To share your Dispatch suggestions and comments, email us at [email protected].
Daily analysis of crypto markets and the forces shaping them, from the Nexo research desk.
Bitcoin slips below $77,000 as geopolitics weigh on risk appetite BTC opened Tuesday below $77,000 as geopolitical risk continued to weigh on sentiment. Monday's U.S. strikes in southern Iran lifted Brent toward $98 a barrel. The cross-asset response was uneven. South Korea's KOSPI printed a record on catch-up trade and chip names rallied across Asia. The Nikkei eased from Monday's high and digital assets stayed under pressure. Thursday's April PCE will test Waller's Friday pivot, which backed removing the FOMC's easing bias and signaled that a hike is now as likely as a cut.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin traded near $76,860 in early hours on May 26, with total crypto market cap at $2.56 trillion, down 0.65% over 24 hours. Leveraged positioning is calm. BTC perpetual funding has averaged around 5% annualized over the past week, enough to signal modest long bias, not enough to flag crowding. Per Glassnode, BTC futures open interest sits at $36.23 billion, well below the October 2025 peak of $68.68 billion. One-month implied volatility has eased to 32.9% from a 30-day peak near 39.6% in late April.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net outflow of $105.19 million on 22 May, the sixth consecutive outflow day, with cumulative six-day redemptions of roughly $1.55 billion — about 1.6% of total ETF assets. The combined picture is investors trimming crypto exposure, not panicking. Funding is steady, open interest is well off the highs, and options traders are pricing in less risk of a big move, not more. Thursday's April PCE inflation print is the week's main catalyst for crypto, as it will shape how the Fed responds in coming meetings.
Ethereum & Altcoins
Ether and major altcoins followed Bitcoin lower in modest moves: ETH down 0.4% on the day, SOL down 1.6%, XRP down 0.8%. Leverage across altcoins sits well below 2025 expansion levels. ETH futures open interest is $21.55 billion versus a 2025 average of $25.7 billion and an August peak of $51.7 billion. SOL open interest is $3.74 billion against a 2025 average of $6 billion. XRP open interest is $1.83 billion against a 2025 average of $4 billion. Funding is positive but moderate, pointing to limited directional conviction.
Institutional flows show a split picture. ETH spot ETFs recorded an outflow of$6.67 million on 22 May for the sixth day in a row, for a total of $282 million. SOL and XRP spot ETFs continued to attract inflows over the same window, adding approximately $15.6 million and $32.9 million respectively. In market-cap terms, flows span roughly −0.1% to +0.04%. The complex reads as measured engagement: light leverage, calm funding, ETH out, SOL and XRP in.
Credit&Leverage
Galaxy Research's Q1 2026 lending report, published last week, puts total crypto-collateralized lending at $67.4 billion, down $3.6 billion (-5.1%) over the quarter. DeFi borrows fell 14% to $28.2 billion, the second consecutive quarterly contraction on-chain. CeFi contracted just 7% to $25.4 billion in its first quarterly decline since Q4 2023, but still ended above Q3 2025 levels despite BTC, ETH, and SOL trading 34%, 48%, and 59% below pre-October 10 prices, respectively. Only four CeFi lenders grew their books in the quarter, Nexo among them. Nexo and the other two companies in the top three now hold 77.7% of CeFi lending — concentration consistent with Galaxy's read of gradual, orderly deleveraging.
Macro & Institutional
Oil remains the primary cross-asset driver. U.S. forces struck missile launch sites and mine-laying vessels in southern Iran late Monday. U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) said the action was defensive and the ceasefire holds. Brent had fallen nearly 3% Monday on framework-deal reports. Tuesday's strikes lifted it back toward $98 a barrel. The U.S. dollar and Treasury yields continue to track energy-driven inflation expectations.
Thursday's April PCE release is the week's main data test. In a speech on Friday, Fed Governor Christopher Waller estimated headline inflation at 3.8% year-on-year (from 3.5%) and core at 3.3% (from 3.2%). An upside surprise validates his pivot to backing removal of the FOMC's easing bias and forces more hike risk into the curve. A softer print leaves him isolated and pressures the dollar lower. Oil and the Hormuz track remain the dominant cross-asset catalyst.
Looking Ahead
With U.S. CPI already out, focus turns to Thursday's data session: April PCE (3.5% headline, 3.2% core, both prior), Q1 GDP second estimate (2.0% consensus), durable goods, personal income and spending, and jobless claims. Wednesday brings weekly ADP employment and an ECB press conference. Friday closes with Chicago PMI and Canada Q1 GDP. Fed speakers across the week include Jefferson, Goolsbee, Williams, and Bowman. Inflation data and the Fed reaction function remain the dominant cross-asset catalyst this week.
Author: Dessislava Ianeva, Analyst at Nexo’s Dispatch
This material is produced by Nexo for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice, or a recommendation to transact in any digital asset. Views are the author's as of the date of publication and may change without notice. Information is from sources believed reliable, but Nexo makes no warranty as to its accuracy and accepts no liability for any loss arising from reliance on this material.
In this patch of your weekly Dispatch:Nexo grows Q1 loan bookDe-escalation trade cappedBTC implied vol stays compressedMarket cast
BTC: weekly and daily indicators offer no directional biasOn the weekly chart, price is holding marginally above the 20-period SMA, leaving the longer-term trend intact but unconvincing. RSI is neutral, offering no momentum bias. Stochastic has rolled out of overbought, easing the buy-side pressure built up at recent highs. The MACD histogram remains positive, so bullish momentum is still in place. ADX is declining, indicating that trend strength is weakening regardless of direction.
On the daily chart, we see the same setup in compressed form. RSI and Stochastic are flat and neither gives a directional cue. The MACD histogram sits marginally below zero, a mild bearish tilt rather than an outright sell signal. ADX is at low levels, the standard reading for a range-bound tape.
Key levels to watch. On the downside, immediate support sits around $75,500, with the next zone at $70,000–$71,000. The weekly 20-period SMA may also act as dynamic support. On the upside, immediate resistance is around $78,000–$79,000, with the next zone at $82,000.
The big idea
Bitcoin's reserve and credit layers come into viewMay has been a bumpy de-escalation trade. Bitcoin's range has held through it, but on a discretionary bid that remains macro- and sentiment-sensitive. Two events last week point to a structural shift in that base: a reserve layer that takes supply off the float, and a credit market mature enough that long-duration holders don't have to sell into stress.
Market context. BTC is up 0.5% month-to-date through May 23, with realized volatility at 28% annualized, the third-lowest May reading since 2011. The range held through the worst weekly ETF outflow since January, a hot April CPI print on May 12, and Mark Cuban's public exit. Strategy's $2.01 billion purchase last week largely offset a simultaneous $1 + billion ETF outflow. But on May 5, Saylor signaled Strategy may sell Bitcoin to fund STRC dividend obligations — the first such signal since 2020, and a reminder that even the closest thing to an unconditional buyer is conditional.The reserve layer (ARMA). Underneath, however, the structural layer is being built. On May 21, Representatives Begich and Golden introduced the American Reserve Modernization Act (ARMA) with 17 co-sponsors. If passed, it would consolidate existing federal Bitcoin holdings (1.0% to 1.6% of total supply) under Treasury custody, mandate a 20-year hold, and direct a study on budget-neutral acquisition strategies. Notably, by codifying reserve status in law rather than executive order, ARMA lowers the political risk of reversal and raises Bitcoin's credibility as a reserve asset for other sovereigns weighing their own exposure. The marginal sovereign bid that follows would build slowly, on a horizon longer than any allocator cycle.The credit layer. The crypto credit market has matured, consolidating around quality operators after October's liquidation event. Nexo cements its place at the center of that consolidation. Per Galaxy Research's Q1 2026 leverage report, Nexo was one of only four CeFi lenders to grow its loanbook, while the broader CeFi market contracted. Nexo is among the three largest lenders globally with a 7.02% market share across tracked CeFi lending. The maturing credit layer means long-duration holders can actively manage exposure through weakness without being forced to sell.The gold parallel. Central banks hold around 38,666 tonnes of gold — about 18% of all above-ground supply (World Gold Council). Those reserves turn over slowly. ARMA is the first credible legislative path to an equivalent structure for Bitcoin. A mature lending market against those reserves is the second piece of the same architecture. The throughline: Bitcoin's bid is shifting from buyers who can change their minds to holders who won't sell, and a mature credit market that means they don't need to.
TradFi trends
One hedge for all Bitcoin ETFs The SEC approved a new Bitcoin options product on May 22, listed on Nasdaq under the ticker QBTC — the first U.S. securities-exchange options contract that references the Bitcoin spot price directly. Existing IBIT and FBTC options track a single fund. Cboe's CBTX, listed since December 2024, broadens that to an index of spot Bitcoin ETFs. QBTC goes a step further, referencing an index built from order-book data at eight crypto exchanges — no fund layer in between. It clears in the same brokerage account and uses the same margin rules as S&P 500 index options, so TradFi institutions can hedge Bitcoin the way they already hedge equities. Trading begins once the CFTC signs off and the OCC updates its disclosure document, expected in the second half of 2026.
Macroeconomic roundup
De-escalation meets rates reality The de-escalation trade returned last week but was capped by hawkish central banks. Brent fell from above $110 to $105.5 on Iran negotiation headlines, and U.S. equities recovered most of the geopolitical risk premium. Bond yields moved the other way. The U.S. 10-year closed near 4.6%, with the 30-year touching its highest level since July 2007. The April 28–29 FOMC minutes ran more hawkish than the statement implied. Many participants would have preferred to drop the bias language outright, citing upside inflation risks from oil, tariffs and Middle East tensions. The majority signaled that further firming would likely become appropriate if inflation persists above 2%, with some discussion that the next move could be a hike rather than a cut.
The yield move was not uniform across regions:
The 10-year U.S.-Bund spread reached 150 basis points, its widest since August 2025. Both the ECB and the U.S. Fed are hawkish but the macro backdrop is diverging. The U.S. is dealing with sticky inflation against resilient growth, Europe with sticky inflation against cracking growth. The flash eurozone composite PMI fell to 47.5 in May, a 31-month low, leaving the ECB hiking into a slowdown.The week's most interesting data story
BTC implied volatility remains at historically low levelsBitcoin implied volatility continues to compress as BTC stabilizes in the upper $70,000s after recovering from its early-February low near $63,000. The term structure, inverted through February and March, has normalized. As of May 21, 1-week ATM IV sits at 29.3%, 1-month at 34.4%, 3-month at 37.3%, and 6-month at 40.7% — all within a few points of their respective 15-month lows. Traders are pricing in relative calm despite persistent macro uncertainty and a still-fragile market structure. Historically, prolonged periods of suppressed Bitcoin volatility rarely last; compression regimes tend to precede significant directional moves, particularly when spot stabilizes after large drawdowns.
The numbers
The week’s most interesting numbers5.2% — U.S. 30-year treasury yields hit a 19-year peak last week, marking a major bond market selloff, driven by escalating inflation fears.
32.7% — Bitcoin's 1-month implied volatility compressed in May, hitting its lowest level since September 2025.
$230 million — combined net inflows into spot SOL and XRP ETFs over the first 16 trading days of May 2026, with neither product registering a single outflow day.
65.2%— the share of all EUR stablecoins hosted on Ethereum.
Hot topic
What the community is discussinghttps://x.com/_10delta_/status/2058551705051058277
AI and utility driven infra will lead the next leg higher, they say.
Yield curve control plus money printing will drive capital out of dollars into alternative stores of value.
Dispatch is a weekly publication by Nexo, designed to help you navigate and take action in the evolving world of digital assets. To share your Dispatch suggestions and comments, email us at [email protected].
Daily analysis of crypto markets and the forces shaping them, from the Nexo research desk.
Bitcoin under pressure as geopolitics overshadow in-line PCE printThe crypto market has given back around $80 billion in value over the past 24 hours, with the total market cap sliding to $2.46 trillion — driven by renewed military exchanges between the U.S. and Iran rather than any fundamental shift in the asset class. Bitcoin has retreated below $73,000, Ethereum below $2,000, and spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded their largest single-day outflows since January. The dollar has firmed to a near two-month high while gold has retreated to around $4,393 as higher yields reduce bullion's appeal. PCE data released this morning came in largely in line with expectations, providing modest relief without resolving the broader inflation picture.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin is trading around $72,800, down over 4% on the day, continuing a two-week drift from highs above $82,000. The move reflects institutional de-risking, basis trade unwinds, and a macro environment that has turned less accommodating. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $733.4 million in net outflows on Wednesday — the largest since January — bringing the two-week total to over $2.5 billion, a meaningful reversal of the inflow trend that defined April's recovery. Bitcoin has traded more cautiously than the broader equity market, which has continued to push toward record highs — a divergence that reflects repositioning within the asset class rather than a broader market deterioration. The $70,000 level is the support zone to watch — a sustained move below it would represent the deepest institutional repositioning since February's lows.
Ethereum & Altcoins
Ethereum is trading around $1,975, down nearly 8% over the past week, having slipped below the psychologically significant $2,000 level. Open interest in Ether futures has risen for three consecutive days to a record 16.39 million tokens — falling spot price alongside rising open interest points to net selling pressure building in leveraged markets. Spot Ether ETFs have recorded $401 million in cumulative outflows this month, more than reversing April's $354 million inflow. XRP fell 3.7% to $1.29, Solana declined 4%, and Cardano and Polygon each shed 4.5%. The altcoin complex is offering no divergence from Bitcoin.
Macro & Institutional
The PCE data landed largely in line with expectations, tempering the most bearish rate scenarios. Headline PCE came in at 3.8% year-on-year — the largest annual rise since May 2023 — while core PCE rose 3.3% year-on-year and just 0.2% month-on-month, a slight deceleration from March's 0.3%. Q1 GDP was revised down to 1.6% annualised from an initial 2.0% estimate, missing expectations, with downward revisions to both consumer spending and inventory investment. That said, the softer core monthly reading has pushed back somewhat against the most hawkish expectations. Markets are treating today's data as broadly neutral — equity futures are near flat, Treasury yields are little changed with the 10-year at 4.48%, and the dollar index has eased slightly to 99.20.
JPMorgan Asset Management's EMEA CEO noted this week that long-term dollar weakness remains a credible thesis given U.S. fiscal dynamics, while Europe could emerge as a relative harbour for safe assets — a view consistent with the ECB's expected June rate hike.
Looking Ahead
With PCE now in the rearview mirror, the Iran situation reasserts itself as the primary variable. A diplomatic resolution would unwind the oil premium, ease inflation expectations, and potentially restore the institutional flows that supported April's Bitcoin rally. Absent that, $70,000 is the next meaningful level of interest. Friday's Chicago PMI for May is the first activity read of the month — a useful early signal of whether macro softness is broadening into the second quarter. The second half of 2026 will largely be shaped by whether a deal materialises before the geopolitical and inflation headwinds compound further.
Author: Iliya Kalchev, Analyst at Nexo’s Dispatch
This material is produced by Nexo for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice, or a recommendation to transact in any digital asset. Views are the author's as of the date of publication and may change without notice. Information is from sources believed reliable, but Nexo makes no warranty as to its accuracy and accepts no liability for any loss arising from reliance on this material.
Daily analysis of crypto markets and the forces shaping them, from the Nexo research desk.
Bitcoin steadies near $74,000 as ceasefire hopes build and labour market week loomsThe crypto market has recovered from yesterday's lows, with the total market cap edging back to $2.47 trillion as a tentative 60-day ceasefire extension between the U.S. and Iran — pending President Trump's final approval, sends oil toward its worst monthly decline since March 2020 and pushes global equities to fresh record highs. Bitcoin is steadying near $73,700, Ethereum has reclaimed $2,000, and altcoins are posting modest bounces. Yet the broader divergence remains intact: the S&P 500 closed at a record 7,563, Brent crude has slipped below $93, and gold is recovering toward $4,533 — while crypto has yet to meaningfully participate in the macro relief trade. The near-term focus is shifting from geopolitical developments to regulatory ones.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin is trading around $73,700, recovering modestly from Thursday's low near $72,500, though the weekly picture remains under pressure. The ceasefire extension provided limited lift for crypto — the market had already moved to price in diplomatic progress, and when Bitcoin held rather than broke higher on the confirmation, the momentum faded. What the chart reflects is a market that has been consolidating since October, with price action increasingly compressed as implied volatility sits at its lowest since September. The options market shows building demand for downside protection, but the broader read is of a market in a holding pattern — waiting for a structural catalyst rather than reacting to macro headlines.
Institutional investors are looking past geopolitical headlines toward U.S. crypto market structure legislation. Bitcoin open interest has held above $35 billion and is trending toward $40 billion per Glassnode — suggesting that while ETF demand has softened, derivatives positioning is quietly rebuilding, a dynamic that could amplify the next directional move in either direction.
Ethereum & Altcoins
Ethereum is just above $2,000, recovering 1.6% on the day after Thursday's dip to $1,965, but down 6.4% on the week. XRP climbed 2.3% to $1.32, Solana and Polygon each rose 1%, and Cardano advanced 2.6% — Friday's modest bounce sitting against a week of meaningful losses across the complex. The standout performer of the week is Stellar's XLM, up 25% in 24 hours after DTCC announced plans to connect its tokenized securities platform to the network — a real-world institutional adoption signal worth noting as the broader market waits for regulatory clarity.
Macro & Institutional
The tentative 60-day ceasefire extension, which would include unrestricted Hormuz shipping, the lifting of the U.S. naval blockade, and an Iranian commitment not to pursue a nuclear weapon, still requires President Trump's approval and Iranian confirmation. Even if confirmed, the deal would not immediately normalise oil flows: Hormuz traffic remains well below pre-conflict levels and the market is more inventory-depleted than before the conflict began.
Thursday's PCE data provided a moderately constructive backdrop. Headline PCE came in at 3.8% year-on-year — the fastest pace since May 2023, but core PCE rose just 0.2% month-on-month, a deceleration that slightly pushes back against the most hawkish rate expectations.
Anthropic raised $65 billion in Series H funding at a post-money valuation of $965 billion, with run-rate revenue crossing $47 billion. SpaceX is targeting a $1.8 trillion IPO valuation with roadshows potentially beginning as soon as June 4. Both signal that the AI infrastructure buildout is accelerating regardless of the macro environment — a dynamic that continues to underpin markets.
Looking Ahead
Next week's calendar is front-loaded with labour market and activity data that will shape the Fed's June calculus. Monday brings Fed Chair Powell speaking alongside Eurozone unemployment and the first May manufacturing readings — S&P Global PMI and ISM Manufacturing, both expected to show continued expansion. Tuesday delivers JOLTS job openings, Wednesday ADP employment. Friday's nonfarm payrolls are the week's centrepiece. For Bitcoin, the question heading into June is whether progress on the CLARITY Act can provide the structural catalyst that macro relief has so far failed to deliver.
Author: Iliya Kalchev, Analyst at Nexo’s Dispatch
This material is produced by Nexo for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice, or a recommendation to transact in any digital asset. Views are the author's as of the date of publication and may change without notice. Information is from sources believed reliable, but Nexo makes no warranty as to its accuracy and accepts no liability for any loss arising from reliance on this material.
Daily analysis of crypto markets and the forces shaping them, from the Nexo research desk.
Crypto flat as traders await ceasefire extensionCrypto markets are holding broadly flat as traders stay on the sidelines ahead of a potential U.S.-Iran ceasefire extension. A 60-day deal and nuclear talks have been teased in press briefings but not formally confirmed. Total market capitalization stands at $2.47 trillion, with the Fear & Greed Index at 33, indicating Fear.
Traditional markets are edging higher on deal optimism and AI momentum. Nvidia's entry into the Windows laptop market and SoftBank surging 11% on its OpenAI and Arm stakes drove Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.6% but crypto has not followed.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin trades near $72,700, down approximately 1.5% over 24 hours, continuing a drift that has unwound the recovery from May lows. Derivatives show no forced deleveraging. Funding is neutral, leverage closures have flatlined, and open interest in BTC terms is rising. The selling is orderly, driven by spot rather than liquidations.
JPMorgan flagged on May 28 that simultaneous outflows from both Bitcoin and gold ETFs reflect investors stepping back from inflation and geopolitical hedges — not a rotation between the two — as Iran deal hopes reduce the urgency of hard-asset positioning. U.S. spot ETFs logged 10 consecutive sessions of outflows between May 15 and May 29, draining $2.97 billion — a new record breaking the previous eight-session streak from early 2025. May is tracking as the third-worst month since launch at approximately $2.4 billion in net outflows, behind only February and November 2025.
The risk is that this unwind has further to run. As per Glassnode data, Q2 spot CVD has been negative in four of the past five years and Q3 weaker still, and with summer liquidity thinning, a U.S.-Iran resolution may prove the more consequential variable than any technical level.
Ethereum & Altcoins
Ethereum trades around $1,980, down 1.6% over 24 hours, with spot ETH ETFs joining BTC in outflows as part of the broader institutional derisking. Standard Chartered maintained its ETH price target, comparing ETH's position to Amazon in 2001 — lower in price while the underlying network keeps growing. The broader market is lower. XRP has dropped 2.8% to $1.30, SOL is down 1.75% to $81. The Altcoin Season Index stands at 31/100, though SOL ETFs continued attracting inflows through May, pointing to selective rather than wholesale risk-off. HYPE is up nearly 7% over 24 hours to nearly $73 and 71% over the past month on the news of its partnership with Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the parent company of the NYSE. Stellar has added 7% over 24 hours and 73% over the past seven days. VanEck's first U.S. spot BNB ETF launched on Nasdaq on May 29 under VBNB, though early volumes remain negligible.
Macro & Institutional
The Iran war entered its fourth consecutive month, with the U.S. striking Iranian radar and drone sites over the weekend. Brent crude rose approximately 3% on Monday to near $94 per barrel, reversing a roughly 10% weekly decline driven by ceasefire optimism. The pattern is becoming familiar: diplomatic signals compress risk premiums, military escalation rebuilds them, and neither side has delivered a resolution, leaving energy markets, and by extension inflation expectations, structurally elevated.
European stocks opened subdued, with Eurozone bond yields rising as markets priced ECB rate hikes in response to the energy shock. The dollar remains supported by hawkish Fed signals, with markets pricing approximately 17 basis points of tightening for the year. China's official manufacturing PMI slipped to 50.0 in May while the non-manufacturing PMI rebounded to 50.1. The Caixin manufacturing PMI moderated to 51.8, outperforming forecasts. Tokyo CPI eased to 1.4% year-on-year in May, yet the Bank of Japan is widely expected to hike in June given negative real interest rates and continued wage growth.
Looking Ahead
Attention turns to a heavy U.S. data week. U.S. ISM manufacturing releases today (consensus at 52.7), followed by ISM services and the Fed Beige Book on Wednesday, and May non-farm payrolls on Friday (consensus at +90,000). Flash May CPI prints for Germany, France, Spain, and Italy are also due today. If labor data hold firm and inflation moderates, pressure on Bitcoin's current level could ease. An upside surprise in price data would likely extend consolidation.
Author: Dessislava Ianeva, Analyst at Nexo’s Dispatch
This material is produced by Nexo for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice, or a recommendation to transact in any digital asset. Views are the author's as of the date of publication and may change without notice. Information is from sources believed reliable, but Nexo makes no warranty as to its accuracy and accepts no liability for any loss arising from reliance on this material.
In this patch of your weekly Dispatch:Macro effects add upETH target $4,000 by 2026 HODLers add 40K BTC in MayMarket cast
BTC slows down in headwindsAfter seeing a substantial wave of ETF outflows and geopolitical uncertainty recently, Bitcoin is struggling to hold its footing, and the technical picture reflects that strain across timeframes.
On the weekly chart, price has slipped below the 20-period Simple Moving Average – the middle Bollinger Band, losing what had been a key dynamic support level. The RSI and Stochastic, both momentum oscillators, have not yet reached oversold territory, though both signal lines are pointing lower, and the MACD histogram, while still above zero, offers limited reassurance of a near-term recovery.
On the daily chart, the picture looks more strained. Price is pressing against the lower Bollinger Band and trading below most major moving averages – key trend-following indicators, reflecting broad short-term weakness. The RSI and Stochastic have both crossed into oversold territory – a reversal of those signal lines would be the first sign that selling pressure is beginning to ease. The MACD histogram remains in negative territory, adding to the bearish case.
Key levels to watch: To the downside, the psychological $70,000 level is the immediate line of defence, with $66,000 as the next meaningful floor if that gives way. To the upside, $73,000–$74,000 is the first resistance zone to clear, followed by $76,000–$77,000 above that.
The big idea
The U.S. job market is Bitcoin’s new catalystRisk appetite in crypto has shifted from momentum to patience, with Bitcoin and the broader market entering a consolidation phase. While this stage is defined less by fear and more by a lack of clear movers and shakers, there is one catalyst potentially driving the next leg and this is the labor market.
What's ahead: The calendar this week builds toward a single question: how healthy is the U.S. labor market? ISM Manufacturing PMI on Monday and JOLTS Job Openings on Tuesday set the tone, followed by ADP Employment Change and ISM Services PMI mid-week. Then on Friday, the May Nonfarm Payrolls report lands alongside the Unemployment Rate and Average Hourly Earnings — the week's defining moment.
The data matters because it speaks directly to what the Fed does next. A notably soft payrolls print could revive rate cut expectations and give risk assets, Bitcoin included, room to breathe. A strong number keeps the Fed on hold and the pressure on. Either way, after weeks of fading geopolitical headlines and inconclusive inflation readings, markets are finally looking at data that could shift the picture.
Where we stand: For the first time since its launch, the Spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a 10-day outflow streak. Between May 15 and 29, nearly $3 billion left Bitcoin ETFs across the board. The price told the same story — BTC slipped from $80,000 to the $73,000 range, closed May in the red, and has struggled to reclaim higher ground since. The broader crypto market has followed suit, with Ether slipping back below $2,000 and trading volumes sitting at historic lows.
The geopolitical backdrop has offered limited relief. When President Trump announced a near-finalized peace framework with Iran in late May, Bitcoin briefly spiked toward $77,000 — only to retrace as negotiations proved more complex than initially signalled, with both sides still working through core terms. The pattern is becoming familiar: BTC reacts to the headline, then waits for the substance to follow. At this point, the market appears to be looking for a signed deal rather than a framework.
On the monetary policy front, last week's PCE inflation print came broadly in line with expectations — neither hot enough to slam the door on future rate cuts, nor cool enough to open it. The Federal Reserve remains in a holding pattern, and with new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh preparing for his first policy meeting on June 16-17, the stakes around incoming data have only grown higher.
Beneath the surface, there is a quietly encouraging signal worth watching — one we unpack in this week's data story. Open interest has reset to multi-week lows and funding rates have turned mildly positive, suggesting the market is digesting the drop with accumulation rather than panic. Bitcoin has been patient. This week, it may get an answer worth reacting to.
Ethereum
Is ETH having its Amazon 2001 moment?Ether has shed 57% from its August 2025 highs, but Standard Chartered argues the price is telling the wrong story. The bank draws a direct parallel to Amazon during the 2001 dot-com crash — where internal metrics kept improving while the stock collapsed. The same, they say, is happening with Ethereum today: transaction volumes and total value locked remain near all-time highs, 54% of all stablecoins settle on Ethereum, stablecoins account for a third of all Ethereum transactions in 2026, and the network hosts 62% of all tokenized real-world assets and 68% of all active on-chain loans. The stablecoin market cap could grow sixfold to $2 trillion by 2028, while RWAs could expand 50x over the same period. Their long-term price targets: $4,000 by end-2026 and $40,000 by end-2030. The market just hasn't caught up yet.
Hot in crypto
The new top 10 in crypto?Hyperliquid's HYPE token kicked off June with a statement. After closing May with gains exceeding 70%, HYPE hit a new all-time high of $74, pushing its market cap above $16 billion and displacing DOGE as the 10th largest digital asset. The move came during a broader market retreat, making it all the more striking.
Institutional interest is visibly growing, with asset managers beginning to structure dedicated investment vehicles around HYPE — a signal that the platform's transition from a niche derivatives exchange into institutional-grade trading infrastructure is gaining credibility. That said, with a 70% monthly gain and a near-vertical chart, it may be too early to say how much of this move is structural and how much is momentum. This is definitely one to watch.
The week's most interesting data story
BTC hodlers aren’t blinkingWhile Bitcoin's price has struggled to find direction, one group has been sending a quiet but clear signal. Long-term holders, after a period of distribution through much of the past year, turned to accumulation at the start of 2026 and haven't looked back. Even through the late May selloff, the Hodler Net Position Change climbed nearly 6%, from 38,056 BTC to 40,309 BTC. When prices fall and long-term holders accumulate rather than exit, it tends to say something about where conviction actually sits.
The numbers
The week’s most interesting numbers$322 billion — the total stablecoin market cap hit a fresh all-time high in late May, now exceeding the FX reserves of 95 countries.
$35 million — net inflows into XRP ETFs between May 20-29, bucking the broader market trend.
15.8 million BTC — the amount of Bitcoin now classified as long-term holder supply, a new all-time high.
$35 trillion — the total stablecoin transaction volume processed last year, according to Chainalysis.
Hot topic
What the community is discussingThe analyst has called it, so watch out for the move.
Nexo whales stay in the ecosystem.
Another hot one in crypto this week.
Dispatch is a weekly publication by Nexo, designed to help you navigate and take action in the evolving world of digital assets. To share your Dispatch suggestions and comments, email us at [email protected].
Daily analysis of crypto markets and the forces shaping them, from the Nexo research desk.
Bitcoin tests $61,000 as bottom signals emerge and U.S.-Iran talks inch forwardThe crypto market is navigating one of its more challenging sessions of the year, with the total market cap slipping to $2.18 trillion. Bitcoin touched $61,300 overnight before partially recovering to around $62,500, as a combination of institutional outflows, geopolitical uncertainty, and the rotation into AI equities continues to weigh on sentiment. The macro picture is offering cautious relief: Israel and Lebanon have renewed their ceasefire, Brent crude has eased toward $96, gold is recovering to around $4,465, and President Trump has signalled that progress on Iran talks could come as soon as this weekend. The week's defining data point — Friday's nonfarm payrolls — arrives tomorrow to either tighten or loosen the Fed's already constrained policy space.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin is trading around $62,500, recovering from an overnight low of $61,300 but still down roughly 5% on the day. Two on-chain signals are converging at current levels that warrant attention. The supply of Bitcoin held at a loss has exceeded the supply in profit for the first time this cycle — 10.5 million BTC underwater against 9.8 million in profit for a crossover that has historically aligned with market lows, though the duration of such periods has varied. Simultaneously, $61,300 corresponds to Bitcoin's 200-week moving average, a long-term support tested in every prior cycle. A close below $60,000 would be the next level to watch, with the realized price near $54,000 as the deeper structural reference.
Open interest has pulled back from record highs above 800,000 BTC to around 766,000 BTC, indicating leveraged positions are being unwound rather than fresh directional bets added. Strategy's anticipated buyback following last week's sale is the near-term catalyst to watch. The view is shared by Standard Chartered, characterizing current levels as a buying zone and arguing the worst of the drawdown may be behind us.
Ethereum & Altcoins
Ethereum is trading around $1,750, down 6.5% on the day. XRP fell 4.1% to $1.19, Solana, Cardano, and BNB each declined between 5% and 9%. Dogecoin fell 4%.
Solana is a notable exception in derivatives: open interest surged to a record 72.16 million tokens even as prices declined — a combination that typically signals aggressive short accumulation. SOL has also broken below its February low, a technical deterioration that Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP have so far avoided, making it the weakest of the major assets on a relative basis.
Macro & Institutional
The Israel-Lebanon ceasefire renewal is the most constructive geopolitical development of the week. The agreement, contingent on a complete Hezbollah withdrawal south of the Litani River, removes a key sticking point in U.S.-Iran negotiations.
Brent crude is easing toward $96 as markets partially price a potential Hormuz reopening. Wednesday's ADP report showed 122,000 private sector jobs added in May — above expectations, while the ISM services index rose to 54.5, with the prices-paid component hitting its highest level in nearly four years. Both readings reinforce the higher-for-longer rate narrative while signalling that the economy is absorbing the energy shock without breaking. The dollar is holding near a two-month high.
Broadcom reported a 48% revenue surge driven by AI chip demand, but shares fell in after-hours trading as guidance failed to meet elevated expectations — a first sign that the AI trade may be entering a phase where execution matters as much as narrative.
Looking Ahead
Tomorrow's jobs data is the week's defining macro moment — nonfarm payrolls, the unemployment rate, and average hourly earnings all released Friday, together forming the most complete picture yet of how the labour market is holding up under the energy shock. A strong print locks in higher-for-longer and extends the headwind for risk assets; a weak one reopens the rate debate without necessarily triggering a crypto recovery on its own. Any confirmation of a U.S.-Iran deal this weekend would unwind the oil premium, ease inflation expectations, and potentially mark a meaningful turning point for this cycle. For Bitcoin, the question is whether current levels represent a durable floor or the beginning of a more extended base-building phase. The on-chain evidence is consistent with prior cycle lows, but history also shows that touching those levels and staying above them are two different things.
Author: Iliya Kalchev, Analyst at Nexo’s Dispatch
This material is produced by Nexo for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice, or a recommendation to transact in any digital asset. Views are the author's as of the date of publication and may change without notice. Information is from sources believed reliable, but Nexo makes no warranty as to its accuracy and accepts no liability for any loss arising from reliance on this material.
Daily analysis of crypto markets and the forces shaping them, from the Nexo research desk.
Bitcoin dips as a strong jobs report and ETF relief close out the weekThe crypto market is closing out a difficult week that saw the total crypto market cap visit a one-year low of $2.15 trillion, but the session's defining moment arrived with a nonfarm payrolls print that significantly beat expectations, adding 172,000 jobs in May against a consensus of 85,000. Bitcoin dipped 1.5% on the release to around $60,700, Ethereum slipped to just above $1,600, and the dollar firmed as markets raised the probability of a Fed rate hike in December to around 65%. Brent crude is holding near $94.70, gold is edging lower to around $4,466, and equity futures are subdued with the Nasdaq off 1.1% following Broadcom's guidance miss. Against that backdrop, one constructive note: the 13-day Bitcoin ETF outflow streak, the longest on record, ended Thursday with a modest net inflow of $3.05 million, and Ethereum ETFs snapped their own 17-day outflow run.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin traded around $60,700, dipping 1.5% following the stronger-than-expected payrolls release as markets repriced the Fed rate outlook. Derivatives markets reflect the week's broader repositioning: open interest has pulled back, funding rates have turned negative, and options positioning has shifted toward caution. Front-end implied volatility sits at 47, consistent with a market working through a consolidation phase as it awaits a clearer directional catalyst. Spot trading volume fell to $679 billion in April, suggesting the market is pausing rather than deteriorating further.
The ETF picture offers an encouraging signal at the margin. The 13-day outflow streak ended Thursday with $3.05 million in net inflows, the first positive day in nearly three weeks. Total Bitcoin ETF assets stand at $80.4 billion, with holdings at 1.28 million BTC. The inflow is modest relative to the prior outflows, but a streak ending is a streak ending. $60,000 remains the key level to watch, and a sustained break below it would bring the realized price near $54,000 into focus.
Ethereum & Altcoins
Ethereum traded just above $1,600 following the payrolls data, with its own ETF outflow streak ending Thursday at $19.3 million in net inflows, a constructive development after 17 consecutive days of redemptions. XRP fell 6% to $1.12, Solana declined 7.4%, Cardano retreated to a multi-year low, and BNB fell 4.4%. Dogecoin dropped 7%.
One notable exception in the altcoin space: Hyperliquid's HYPE ETFs have attracted net inflows every trading day since their May debut, reaching $185.7 million in assets, a signal that investor appetite for differentiated crypto products remains present even as the broader market consolidates.
Macro & Institutional
May's nonfarm payrolls came in well above expectations at 172,000, nearly double the consensus of 85,000, with April revised up to 179,000 and March to 214,000. The unemployment rate held at 4.3% for a third consecutive month. The strong labour market picture has raised the probability of a Fed rate hike in December to around 65%, sending the two-year Treasury yield to its highest level since February 2025 and pushing the dollar higher.
Hezbollah's rejection of the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire is the dominant geopolitical development of the session, removing what had briefly appeared to be a constructive stepping stone toward broader U.S.-Iran de-escalation. Fitch has trimmed its global growth forecast to 2.4% for 2026 and raised its average Brent crude forecast to $87 a barrel. Gold is edging lower to around $4,466 as the higher-for-longer rate environment and a firmer dollar weigh on bullion's appeal. On the equity side, Broadcom's guidance miss sent chipmakers lower as the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 2.2%, while the Dow hit a record high as investors rotated from technology into cyclicals.
Looking Ahead
Next week's calendar is front-loaded with consequential data. Wednesday brings CPI, the most important inflation reading, ahead of Warsh's first FOMC meeting on June 17, alongside a 10-year Treasury auction. Thursday delivers the ECB rate decision, U.S. PPI, and initial jobless claims. Together they will either validate or temper today's hawkish repricing, and for Bitcoin, the outcome will go a long way toward determining whether $60,000 holds as support heading into the summer.
Author: Iliya Kalchev, Analyst at Nexo’s Dispatch
This material is produced by Nexo for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice, or a recommendation to transact in any digital asset. Views are the author's as of the date of publication and may change without notice. Information is from sources believed reliable, but Nexo makes no warranty as to its accuracy and accepts no liability for any loss arising from reliance on this material.
Daily analysis of crypto markets and the forces shaping them, from the Nexo research desk.
Bitcoin steadies as Strategy steps back in and the macro picture shiftsThe crypto market is finding its footing after last week's pressure, with the total crypto market cap recovering modestly as Bitcoin climbs back above $63,000 and altcoins post measured gains. The macro backdrop remains complex: Iran and Israel exchanged strikes over the weekend for the first time since the April ceasefire, sending oil higher and adding a layer of uncertainty to an already active backdrop. Yet markets are absorbing the news with relative composure — S&P 500 futures are up 0.6%, Nasdaq futures are gaining 1.3% as chip stocks stabilize, and Iranian state media has reported an end to military operations against Israel. Brent crude is up 1.1% to around $94, the dollar index is holding near a two-month high at 100.17, and gold has slipped to around $4,326 as higher-for-longer rate expectations continue to weigh on bullion. Wednesday's CPI print and Thursday's ECB rate decision are the week's defining data points.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin is trades just below $64,000, up almost 3% in 24 hours and recovering from last week's low below $60,000. Two developments are supporting the rebound. First, Strategy has returned to buying — purchasing 1,550 BTC for approximately $101 million at an average price of $65,332, bringing total holdings to 845,256 BTC. The acquisition, the first since last week's symbolic sale, reaffirms the corporate accumulation model that briefly came into question and adds meaningful institutional weight to the current price level. Second, one of Bitcoin's closely watched on-chain metrics — the MVRV Z-Score, is approaching the zone that has historically coincided with major cycle lows, having touched or briefly dipped below zero in 2014, 2018, and 2022 before significant recoveries followed.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $1.72 billion in net outflows last week, their largest weekly exodus since February 2025, extending a four-week outflow streak totalling $5.4 billion. The primary driver was last week's stronger-than-expected jobs report, which reinforced higher-for-longer rate expectations and made yielding assets more attractive relative to Bitcoin. That said, the institutional ownership base has broadened meaningfully — 61% of circulating Bitcoin supply has remained inactive for more than a year per Glassnode, and corporate treasury accumulation has provided a meaningful offset to ETF outflows. $60,000 remains the key support level — Bitcoin briefly touched it last week before recovering, and holding above it is the near-term priority.
Ethereum & Altcoins
Ethereum is up 3.4% to around $1,666, outperforming Bitcoin on the day and recovering from last week's multi-month lows. XRP and Solana each rose 1.3%, Cardano and BNB each added around 1%. The recovery is measured rather than decisive as the altcoin complex is broadly tracking Bitcoin's rebound without yet establishing independent momentum. The $1,420 level remains the key reference for Ethereum — a sustained hold above it keeps the current recovery thesis intact.
Macro & Institutional
The weekend's Iran-Israel exchange marks the first direct strikes between the two since the April ceasefire, introducing a new layer of geopolitical uncertainty into an already complex macro environment. President Trump maintained that a peace deal remains on the table. Brent crude is up on the session, with markets pricing a widening gap between diplomatic optimism and operational reality.
The week's most consequential institutional development outside of geopolitics is Goldman Sachs pushing its Fed rate cut forecast into 2027, citing the stronger labour market and persistent inflation pressures from energy costs and tariffs. Goldman now expects core PCE to remain above 3% throughout 2026, with cuts resuming only as inflation approaches 2% the following year. European markets are also navigating the ECB's expected rate decision Thursday, with traders pricing as many as three hikes by year-end as eurozone bond yields hit multi-week highs. Asian markets bore the brunt of Friday's risk-off move, with South Korea's Kospi falling 8.3%, Japan's Nikkei dropping 3.85%, and Taiwan's TAIEX declining 3.5%.
Looking Ahead
Wednesday's CPI print is the week's defining moment, where any surprise in either direction would move rate expectations and by extension crypto, equities, and yields simultaneously. Tuesday brings ADP employment as an early read on the labour market. Wednesday also brings the Bank of Canada rate decision and a 10-year Treasury auction in the afternoon. Thursday is the week's busiest day: the ECB rate decision, U.S. PPI, initial jobless claims, and the OPEC monthly report all land together, forming a near-complete picture of where energy, inflation, and growth stand heading into summer. UK GDP rounds out the week on Friday. For Bitcoin, Wednesday's CPI is the most direct near-term catalyst — a contained reading would provide relief, while an upside surprise would keep the pressure on the $60,000 support level that matters most heading into Warsh's first FOMC meeting on June 17.
Author: Iliya Kalchev, Analyst at Nexo’s Dispatch
This material is produced by Nexo for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice, or a recommendation to transact in any digital asset. Views are the author's as of the date of publication and may change without notice. Information is from sources believed reliable, but Nexo makes no warranty as to its accuracy and accepts no liability for any loss arising from reliance on this material.
In this patch of your weekly Dispatch:Big hands add ETHU.S. CPI arrives WednesdaySpaceX goes publicMarket cast
BTC navigates a confluence of supportBitcoin is consolidating near a confluence of key support levels, with technical indicators across both timeframes approaching oversold territory – a setup that warrants attention in the sessions ahead.
On the weekly chart, price has pulled back to the 200-period SMA, a key trend indicator currently acting as dynamic support, while simultaneously hovering near the lower Bollinger Band – a volatility indicator that marks the outer boundary of the current price range. Momentum indicators are sending a cautious signal: both the RSI and Stochastic oscillators are sitting right at the edge of oversold territory. Meanwhile, the MACD histogram – a trend and momentum indicator, manages to hold slightly above the zero line, a level worth watching closely.
On the daily timeframe, price is trading below most major SMAs, with trend indicators broadly reflecting the prevailing bearish pressure. However, momentum indicators are beginning to show early signs of a shift – both the RSI and Stochastic signal lines, while still in oversold territory, are trending upward, suggesting the selling pressure could be fading. The MACD histogram remains in negative territory and will need to reclaim the zero line to confirm any meaningful recovery.
Key levels to watch: Support sits at the immediate $63,000 level, with the next significant floor around $60,000. The 200-period weekly SMA also continues to serve as dynamic support on any further downside. To the upside, the first resistance to clear is around $64,000, followed by a more meaningful hurdle at the $68,000–$69,000 zone.
The big idea
Bitcoin: Near the buying zone?We've held a hopeful view on Bitcoin's recovery for some time now. The macro environment had other ideas. May's nonfarm payrolls came in at 172,000 – more than double expectations, reinforcing a labor market that simply hasn't given the Federal Reserve reason to ease. Rate-cut hopes have since faded, with markets now pricing in a probability of rate hikes before year-end. Add to that the ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions keeping energy prices elevated, and the conditions for a sustained rally just haven't been there.
Beneath the macro noise, one on-chain signal is quietly approaching a threshold that has marked a turning point in every previous Bitcoin cycle. It functions less like a price target and more like a law of gravity. It's called the realized price – the average cost basis of every bitcoin in circulation, calculated from the last time each coin actually moved on-chain. Right now, that number sits around $54,000. Bitcoin has traded below it during every major bear market, and each time, it has recovered. With the market now down more than 22% over the past month, the realized price is coming into view. Head over to this week’s data story for the chart.
The past few weeks have seen meaningful pressure across the market. Bitcoin briefly dipped below $60,000 last week, as spot ETFs recorded $4.2 billion in outflows over three consecutive weeks. Beneath that, though, the data is beginning to look familiar. The 200-week moving average was touched last week at around $61,300, a long-term support level that has held through every previous cycle. On-chain capitulation metrics are at levels not seen since 2022. CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju notes that bear markets have typically ended near the realized price. Standard Chartered signaled the current range could come to be a "buying zone."
Bitcoin's recovery back above $63,000 over the weekend, analysts say, may be an early sign that sellers are running out of conviction. That doesn't make a recovery certain, or its timing predictable, but with so many on-chain signals aligned at historically significant levels, the ingredients for a cycle low are accumulating. Whether they've fully ripened is a question only time and price action can answer.
Ethereum
Signals under ETH’s pullback?Ethereum fell more than 16% last week, briefly slipping below $1,600 as geopolitical tensions, a cautious Fed, and ETF outflows weighed on the broader market – a far cry from the $4,000 year-end target Standard Chartered floated in our last issue.
Beneath the decline, though, large wallets were quietly accumulating. The biggest cohort of whale addresses added roughly 290,000 ETH in the first week of June, while mid-sized wallets trimmed their positions, suggesting conviction is concentrated at the top end of the holder spectrum. Meanwhile, exchange reserves across major platforms fell by around 475,000 ETH. Coins leaving exchanges tend to signal holding intent rather than selling pressure for the same pattern emerging in Bitcoin: the hands most likely to hold through a cycle are the ones adding at these levels.
Macroeconomic roundup
Macro clarity or complexity – this week decidesFive releases, three central banks, and a U.S. inflation print that could reset expectations for the rest of the summer. This is the week the macro picture gets a little clearer — or a lot more complicated.
U.S. CPI (Jun 10): Headline expected at 4.2% YoY, up from 3.8%. The week's most market-moving release.
ECB Interest Rate Decision (Jun 11): Expected hike to 2.25% from 2.00%, signaling Europe's tightening cycle still has room to run.
U.S. PPI & Jobless Claims (Jun 11): Both PPI figures expected to ease; claims at 218K — steady and unlikely to shift sentiment.
U.K. GDP (Jun 12): Expected contraction of 0.1% MoM after prior growth of 0.3% — a further softening of the European economy.
TradFi trends
Gold stumbles, SpaceX goes publicSpaceX has priced its IPO at $135 per share, targeting a $75 billion raise at a $1.75 trillion valuation. For crypto markets, the listing is notable for one reason: SpaceX carries nearly 19,000 bitcoin on its balance sheet, bringing meaningful indirect BTC exposure into public markets for the first time.
Gold, meanwhile, has broken below its 200-day moving average for the first time since October 2023, slipping under $4,300 and into bear market territory. The move was driven by the same stronger-than-expected jobs report that pressured crypto – a reminder that macro forces move markets broadly, not selectively.
The week's most interesting data story
Where Bitcoin forms a bottomAs discussed in this week's big idea, the realized price is the metric worth understanding right now. The realized price – the average cost basis of every holder on the network, currently sits at $54,000. With spot prices near $63,000, the average Bitcoin acquisition is still sitting on an unrealized gain. In every previous bear market, Bitcoin has fallen to or below this level, and every time it has, it has recovered. What's telling about this cycle is that it hasn't happened once. That's not a guarantee of anything, but historically, it's exactly the kind of floor that long-term cycles are built on.
The numbers
The week’s most interesting numbers$2.6 billion — Net ETF outflows year-to-date, but Bernstein says Bitcoin's "boring cycle" doesn't dent the store-of-value thesis.
4.59% — Bitmine bought 127,000 ETH for $207 million into the downturn, bringing its treasury to almost 5% of ETH's total circulating supply.
100 — The U.S. Dollar Index has crossed back above this level for the first time in two months, driven by May's blowout jobs report.
17 days – Ethereum ETFs had gone 17 consecutive sessions without a net inflow before finally reversing on June 4, pulling in $19.3 million.
$5.5 billion — The tokenized stocks market has grown 147% since January, as crypto-native investors increasingly seek equity exposure on-chain.
Hot topic
What the community is discussingVisualizing the BTC bottom?
Doesn’t this show BTC is currently discounted?
Back to regular business.
Dispatch is a weekly publication by Nexo, designed to help you navigate and take action in the evolving world of digital assets. To share your Dispatch suggestions and comments, email us at [email protected].
Daily analysis of crypto markets and the forces shaping them, from the Nexo research desk.
Bitcoin recovers above $62,000 as CPI lands in line and rate hike fears moderateBitcoin has recovered to around $62,300, up roughly 1% on the day after an earlier dip toward $61,000 as markets awaited the CPI print. The data's core monthly reading — 0.2% against an expected 0.3% — provided just enough relief to stabilise risk assets without resolving the broader macro tension. Spot Bitcoin ETF outflows have slowed materially this week — $168 million so far compared to over $5 billion across the prior three weeks, suggesting the most intense phase of institutional repositioning may be easing. Rallies without a sustained return of spot demand have historically struggled to hold, but the combination of slowing outflows and a non-alarming CPI print is a more constructive backdrop than the market faced at the start of the week. The $60,000 level remains the key structural reference — holding above it keeps the current recovery thesis intact.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin is trading just below $61,000, down 3% in 24 hours. The recovery seen earlier this week, which carried Bitcoin toward $64,000 following Strategy's return to buying, has faded, reflecting a market that is still waiting for a meaningful return of spot demand rather than a sustained directional shift. Rallies without that underlying bid have historically struggled to hold, and the current environment is no exception.
The more encouraging signal is in ETF flow data. Outflows have slowed materially this week — $168 million so far compared to over $5 billion across the prior three weeks, suggesting the most intense phase of institutional repositioning may be easing. Today's CPI is the critical near-term test: a contained reading would provide meaningful relief for non-yielding assets, while a stronger print would reinforce the case for a December Fed rate hike and keep the $60,000 level in focus as the cycle's key reference point.
Ethereum & Altcoins
Ethereum has recovered to $1,664, tracking Bitcoin's rebound following the CPI release. XRP fell 5%, Solana shed 4.3%, and Cardano fell 5.2%. Hyperliquid's HYPE saw the sharpest move among major assets, down over 10% on the day as its higher-beta profile amplifies broader market swings. The altcoin complex is broadly moving in line with Bitcoin without meaningful divergence.
Macro & Institutional
May CPI came in at 4.2% year-on-year — in line with expectations and the hottest reading since April 2023 — driven largely by a 7% monthly surge in gasoline prices and a 40.5% annual increase. Core CPI rose 2.9% year-on-year, also matching forecasts, but the monthly core reading eased to 0.2% from April's 0.4% — softer than the 0.3% expected. The detail beneath the headline is modestly encouraging: core goods prices fell 0.1% month-on-month, new vehicle prices declined, medical care costs decreased, and transportation services costs eased. These components suggest the energy shock has not yet broadly fed into underlying price pressures in the way some feared.
The Fed's next meeting on June 16-17 — Warsh's first as chair — is still widely expected to be a hold. The more meaningful debate is now about what comes after. Markets had entered 2026 pricing rate cuts; those expectations have been all but eliminated. A rate hike by December is currently priced at above 70% probability, though analysts note the bar for an actual move remains high — the Fed will need to see energy-driven inflation feed more persistently into core prices before acting. The contained monthly core reading today provides a modest pushback against the most hawkish scenario.
Fresh U.S.-Iran strikes drew retaliatory Iranian action, though oil markets are treating the exchange as part of the conflict's established pattern rather than a decisive escalation. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed and oil stays well above pre-war levels.
On the institutional side, Japan's three largest banks have announced plans to jointly issue a yen-denominated stablecoin by March 2027 — a notable development for institutional-grade digital asset infrastructure outside the dollar ecosystem. The ECB is expected to raise rates by 25 basis points on Thursday, with one research desk arguing that European equities are better positioned to absorb the move than widely feared given stronger balance sheets compared to the 2011 tightening cycle.
Looking Ahead
With CPI now in the rearview mirror, Thursday becomes the next focal point — the ECB rate decision, U.S. PPI, and initial jobless claims all land together, completing the inflation picture ahead of Warsh's first FOMC meeting on June 16-17. The Bank of Japan is also widely expected to raise rates to 1% at its June 16 meeting — a rare moment where three major central banks are moving in the same direction simultaneously. For Bitcoin, today's data provides a degree of breathing room — but a sustained recovery will require the return of spot demand that has been absent since mid-May, and that is unlikely to materialise until the rate trajectory and the Iran situation provide clearer direction.
Author: Iliya Kalchev, Analyst at Nexo’s Dispatch
This material is produced by Nexo for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice, or a recommendation to transact in any digital asset. Views are the author's as of the date of publication and may change without notice. Information is from sources believed reliable, but Nexo makes no warranty as to its accuracy and accepts no liability for any loss arising from reliance on this material.
Daily analysis of crypto markets and the forces shaping them, from the Nexo research desk.
Bitcoin steadies above $62,000 as peace talks continue and ECB raises ratesThe crypto market is finding tentative footing as Bitcoin recovers to around $62,700, Ethereum edges higher to $1,650, and equity futures point up 0.5% on the S&P 500 and 0.8% on the Nasdaq. The geopolitical picture remains fluid with diplomatic efforts continuing in the background even as rhetoric intensifies, though markets are broadly looking past the noise with Brent crude easing to around $92.60. The ECB has raised its deposit rate by 25 basis points to 2.25% — its first hike since 2023 — delivering the move markets had fully priced as policymakers respond to the energy-driven inflation wave. Gold is recovering modestly to around $4,080, and the dollar index is holding near 100.09 as markets look ahead to Warsh's first FOMC meeting next week.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin is trading around $62,700, up 1.5% in 24 hours and recovering from last week's low near $59,000. The move is measured rather than decisive — ETF outflows deepened on Wednesday to $213.85 million after briefly cooling earlier in the week, extending a streak that has now shed over $5 billion across the past several weeks. Spot demand has not yet returned in a meaningful way, and the underlying flow picture remains the key variable for any sustained recovery.
On-chain data places Bitcoin's current realized price at around $53,600 — the aggregate cost basis of all market participants — a level that has historically aligned with significant cycle lows. At current prices Bitcoin sits approximately 15% above that threshold, meaning the majority of holders remain in profit. Realized losses over the past 30 days remain well below levels seen at prior cycle lows — a sign that the market is consolidating rather than capitulating. The realized price of $53,600 is a structural reference worth watching as context for where long-term value has historically emerged, not as a near-term target but as a level that has marked the floor of every major Bitcoin cycle.
The SpaceX IPO on Friday is drawing significant attention — institutional and retail capital is being redirected toward the $75 billion raise at a $1.75 trillion valuation, and some of the recent crypto outflows reflect that rotation. Once the IPO clears, that dynamic may ease.
Ethereum & Altcoins
Ethereum is up 1.1% to around $1,650, recovering modestly from recent multi-month lows. Spot Ethereum ETFs continued to see outflows on Wednesday. XRP rose 0.1%, Solana gained 1.2%, Cardano added 3.1%, and BNB rose 1.5%. The altcoin complex is posting cautious gains broadly in line with Bitcoin's direction.
Macro & Institutional
The ECB raised its deposit rate by 25 basis points to 2.25% today — its first hike since 2023 — delivering what markets had fully priced as an inflation-driven move in response to the energy shock. Eurozone headline inflation is now seen averaging 3% in 2026, up from a prior forecast of 2.6%, with growth revised down to 0.8%. President Lagarde projected inflation returning to target in autumn 2027, while describing the current environment as one in which "growth is absent or under threat" — a candid acknowledgement of the stagflation dynamic the ECB is navigating. Markets are pricing a follow-up move in September, though Lagarde did not commit to a specific path. The euro edged lower to around $1.1521 following the decision.
The geopolitical picture remains mixed but arguably more constructive than headlines suggest. While rhetoric from Washington has intensified, back-channel diplomacy is ongoing — UAE officials met with Iranian counterparts for the first time since the conflict began, a notable signal that regional de-escalation efforts are quietly advancing. Brent is trading near $92.60, broadly flat on the session, with oil markets reflecting measured rather than alarmed positioning. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, but the diplomatic activity provides a more constructive backdrop than the preceding week.
On the institutional side, DBS Bank has announced it will offer tokenised gold trading to retail customers in the second half of 2026, with each token backed by one gram of physical gold held in Singapore — a notable step in the broadening of real-world asset tokenisation into mainstream retail banking.
Looking Ahead
With the ECB decision now confirmed and PPI data releasing today, the focus shifts fully to Warsh's first FOMC meeting on June 16-17 — where a hold is widely expected but the tone of forward guidance will be closely watched. The Bank of Japan is also expected to raise rates to 1% at its June 16 meeting, meaning three major central banks will have moved in a tightening direction within days of each other — a rare confluence that historically weighs on risk appetite. The SpaceX IPO on Friday is the week's remaining capital markets event, with its pricing and reception offering a real-time read on investor appetite for large-scale technology raises. For Bitcoin, the question heading into next week is whether the clearing of these major events — ECB done, FOMC ahead, SpaceX pricing — combined with any further diplomatic progress on Iran, provides the conditions for spot demand to begin returning, which remains the missing ingredient for a more sustained recovery.
Author: Iliya Kalchev, Analyst at Nexo’s Dispatch
This material is produced by Nexo for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice, or a recommendation to transact in any digital asset. Views are the author's as of the date of publication and may change without notice. Information is from sources believed reliable, but Nexo makes no warranty as to its accuracy and accepts no liability for any loss arising from reliance on this material.
Daily analysis of crypto markets and the forces shaping them, from the Nexo research desk.
Bitcoin steadies above $63,000 as Iran deal hopes lift markets and SpaceX makes historyThe crypto market is finding its footing on the most eventful Friday of the year. Bitcoin is up 0.9% to around $63,300, equity futures are pointing higher, and Brent crude has slid to around $86.50 — a two-month low, on growing hopes of a U.S.-Iran peace deal. SpaceX has simultaneously made history, pricing its IPO at $135 per share to raise $75 billion — the largest offering in U.S. history, and beginning trading on the Nasdaq today at a $1.77 trillion valuation. The dollar is dipping slightly, the euro is near a one-week high, and gold is edging up to around $4,220. The total crypto market cap remains under pressure but is stabilising as the macro backdrop shifts.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin is trading around $63,300, up 0.9% on the day and on course for a modest weekly gain. Spot Bitcoin ETFs are headed for a fourth consecutive week of outflows, though the pace has eased materially — $401.7 million so far this week compared to $1.72 billion the prior week. That deceleration is an early signal worth noting. If the Iran deal is confirmed this weekend, the first meaningful test will be whether ETF flows reverse — the institutional bid that powered April's recovery was built on exactly this kind of macro relief, and the infrastructure to absorb it is already in place.
On the derivatives side, institutional positioning in options markets this week has centred on structures designed for maximum profit if Bitcoin settles near $75,000 by end of July. The $75,000 positioning is notable not just as a price target but as a signal of timeframe — institutional players are not positioning for an immediate spike but for a gradual recovery through July, consistent with a market that needs the macro environment to stabilise before spot demand returns meaningfully. The $60,000–$65,000 range remains the near-term reference zone, with the 200-week moving average at around $61,000 providing the structural floor.
Ethereum & Altcoins
Ethereum is broadly flat at around $1,653. XRP is up 1.4% to $1.13, with Solana, Cardano, and BNB each gaining between 0.1% and 2.4%. The altcoin complex is posting modest gains in line with Bitcoin's direction, with spot Ethereum ETFs continuing to record outflows this week. Ethereum's relative resilience at current levels — holding above $1,600 through a period of sustained ETF outflows, leaves it better positioned than its recent performance suggests if institutional flows begin to rotate back into the broader crypto complex.
Macro & Institutional
Iranian state media reported Friday that a draft framework agreement would include the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the lifting of U.S. oil sanctions, and the release of frozen Iranian funds, with final negotiations focusing on nuclear and economic issues. President Trump has described the deal as essentially done with a signing possible in Europe this weekend, though Tehran struck a more measured tone, acknowledging progress while noting points of contention remain. Brent is down over 4% at around $86.50, on course for a weekly decline of over 7% — a move that, if sustained, would materially ease the inflation premium driving central bank hawkishness. OPEC's monthly report cut its 2026 oil demand growth forecast for a second consecutive month, reinforcing how consequential a Hormuz reopening would be.
Thursday's ECB hike and a contained U.S. core PPI reading have nudged the rate narrative in a more constructive direction. Markets are now pricing around a 60% probability of a Fed hike by December, down from above 70% earlier in the week. On the institutional product side, a major asset manager has filed regulatory paperwork for a Bitcoin premium income ETF — a covered-call structure offering spot Bitcoin exposure with a yield-generating mechanism. This represents a broadening of the Bitcoin ETF product suite that could attract a different category of institutional buyer in the months ahead.
Looking Ahead
A confirmed Iran deal would be the single most significant macro development since the conflict began — unwinding the oil premium, easing inflation expectations, and potentially reversing the institutional outflow trend from crypto.
Next week's calendar is front-loaded with central bank decisions. Tuesday brings the Bank of Japan and RBA alongside the ZEW sentiment survey. Wednesday delivers UK and Eurozone CPI and U.S. retail sales ahead of the Fed's rate decision — widely expected to be a hold at 3.75% — where Warsh's tone on the inflation outlook and the path beyond June will be the most closely watched moment of the week. Thursday rounds out with the Bank of England decision alongside U.S. jobless claims. For Bitcoin, how Warsh frames the rate path in light of a potential Iran resolution could prove as important as the decision itself.
Author: Iliya Kalchev, Analyst at Nexo’s Dispatch
This material is produced by Nexo for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice, or a recommendation to transact in any digital asset. Views are the author's as of the date of publication and may change without notice. Information is from sources believed reliable, but Nexo makes no warranty as to its accuracy and accepts no liability for any loss arising from reliance on this material.
Daily analysis of crypto markets and the forces shaping them, from the Nexo research desk.
Peace dividend and Fed discountBitcoin climbed above $65,500 at the Monday open as confirmation of a U.S.–Iran interim peace deal and President Trump's announcement that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen Friday drove a broad risk-on rotation. Oil prices fell sharply, supporting global risk assets. Spot Bitcoin ETFs broke a five-session outflow streak on June 12, recording $85.85 million in net inflows, their strongest single-day figure in roughly four weeks. The relief rally is real, but it carries conditions. Markets are not fully pricing a permanent resolution until the June 19 signing in Switzerland holds. Seven G10 central bank meetings this week add a further layer of event risk.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin is back above $65,500 on Monday, up roughly 2% over 24 hours, but markets are pricing in a moderate recovery rather than a breakout. Polymarket assigns 71% odds to Bitcoin touching $67,500 before month-end — a 3% move from current levels — and 34% to $70,000. Options data reinforces that read. Upside implied volatility has fallen back to pre-war levels and the cost of downside protection has compressed sharply, reflecting hedges being unwound rather than fresh bullish bets being placed.
Institutional demand is showing signs of recovery. ETF flows turned positive on June 12, ending the most sustained net withdrawal period since the products launched in January 2024. The FOMC is the key near-term risk. The March precedent is worth noting: seven sessions of inflows totaling $1.17 billion reversed into a $163.52 million single-session outflow on the day the Fed met. Institutional positioning into Wednesday carries that same event-risk pattern.
Ethereum & Altcoins
Altcoins followed Bitcoin up, with Solana and HYPE leading the top ten recovery. ETF flows tell a more nuanced story. Ethereum spot ETFs recorded $4.95 million in net outflows on Friday, diverging from Bitcoin ETFs which turned positive for the first time in five sessions. The gap is wider in aggregate. ETH spot ETFs shed $712.56 million from May 11 through May 29 and a further $356.76 million in June, pushing net assets from a $13.45 billion peak to $9.16 billion — a 32% decline in under four weeks.
Demand has not left the altcoin space, it has become selective. Solana and XRP ETFs added a combined $348.47 million in May and stayed broadly flat in June, with both tokens gaining 6.6% and 5.3% between June 12 and June 14 on the ceasefire rally. HYPE is the clearest expression of that selectivity, accumulating $154.61 million in ETF inflows in under a month. On June 4, HYPE ETFs recorded their largest single-day inflow relative to market cap across all alt ETFs, driven by Grayscale's HYPG listing on Nasdaq — the third U.S. HYPE ETF to list in three weeks.
Investor interest in HYPE is underpinned by a fee buyback model that converts platform trading volume directly into token demand, giving the asset a structural bid that most altcoins lack.
Macro & Institutional
Two events bookend the week. The FOMC decision Wednesday and the formal U.S.–Iran peace signing in Switzerland on Friday pull in opposite directions. Cheaper oil eases the inflation pressure that pushed central banks toward tighter policy, but whether that feeds through to markets depends on what Warsh signals.
The main risk is the dot plot and the forward guidance. Current pricing assigns approximately 40% odds of a December rate hike, a significant shift from earlier expectations of multiple cuts, and an upward revision to the funds path would validate that repricing.
The BoJ concludes Tuesday and is near-certain to raise rates to 1% for the first time since 1995. Governor Ueda will not attend or vote, having been hospitalized, which makes the forward guidance harder to read than usual. A hawkish tone on further normalization would pressure USD/JPY and risk unwinding carry positions across risk assets.
Looking Ahead
Tuesday's BoJ decision is the immediate focus. China's May activity data — industrial production, retail sales, and fixed asset investment — prints the same day and will set the tone for emerging market risk appetite. Wednesday is the week's focal point. U.S. May retail sales offer the first clean read on consumer resilience after the April–May energy spike, and the FOMC decision, economic projections, and Warsh's inaugural press conference follow in the evening. Thursday brings U.K. labor data and the BoE decision, where the MPC vote split will matter as much as the hold. Friday's tape is thin as U.S. markets are closed for Juneteenth but the formal U.S.–Iran peace signing in Switzerland adds a geopolitical event-risk overlay to close the week.
Author: Dessislava Ianeva, Analyst at Nexo’s Dispatch
This material is produced by Nexo for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice, or a recommendation to transact in any digital asset. Views are the author's as of the date of publication and may change without notice. Information is from sources believed reliable, but Nexo makes no warranty as to its accuracy and accepts no liability for any loss arising from reliance on this material.
In this patch of your weekly Dispatch:First decision under new Fed chairMarket-moving macro comesSpaceX's Bitcoin goes publicMarket cast
BTC shows green in the chartsBitcoin's technical picture is showing early signs of a shift. On the weekly chart, price has bounced from the 200-period SMA — a key long-term trend indicator, and is now pushing toward the middle Bollinger Band, a volatility indicator that marks the midpoint of the current price range. The RSI and Stochastic oscillators, both momentum indicators, remain at relatively low levels but their signal lines are turning higher — a tentative sign of building bullish momentum. The MACD histogram, a trend and momentum indicator, sits slightly above the zero line, keeping the longer-term structure cautiously constructive.
On the daily chart, the picture is more nuanced. Price is now testing the middle Bollinger Band, which is acting as dynamic resistance at current levels. The RSI has moved into neutral territory and continues to rise, while the Stochastic signal lines are approaching overbought conditions — a reminder that the short-term rebound may need to consolidate before extending further. The MACD histogram has moved into positive territory and is trending higher, offering some near-term encouragement.
Key levels to watch: Support sits at $63,000 and $61,000. To the upside, the first hurdle is the daily middle Bollinger Band as dynamic resistance, followed by the $68,000–$69,000 zone and $71,000 beyond that.
The big idea
Will a new Fed chair support Bitcoin’s recovery?For months, uncertainty around the U.S.-Iran conflict has weighed on risk assets and capped every Bitcoin recovery attempt. Over the weekend, reports of a ceasefire agreement offered some relief — oil prices fell sharply, Asian equities moved higher, and Bitcoin climbed back above $65,000 for the first time in nearly two weeks. The situation is still developing, with the formal signing expected later this week. But for now, at least, one of the market's more persistent sources of anxiety appears to have eased.
The next focus shifts quickly to Wednesday, when the Federal Reserve delivers its June 17 interest rate decision — the first under new Chair Kevin Warsh. A hold is widely expected, with markets pricing in around a 97% probability of no change. The more consequential question is what the accompanying dot plot and Warsh's press conference reveal about the path ahead. Specifically, whether rate hikes later this year remain a genuine possibility.
The data the Fed is walking in with offers no easy answers. May's CPI came in at 4.2% year-on-year — elevated, but in line with expectations, with core monthly inflation coming in slightly softer than forecast. The labor market paints a similarly nuanced picture: three consecutive months of solid job gains, unemployment holding at 4.3%, yet weekly jobless claims ticked above forecasts last week and there are early signs of strain beneath the surface — long-term unemployment is rising and hiring intentions among small businesses have fallen to a six-year low. The Fed will see a labor market that is neither breaking down nor giving it room to ease. That is the difficult position Warsh inherits on Wednesday.
How Bitcoin responds will depend heavily on tone. If the dot plot suggests inflation is moving back toward target, and that cuts could be possible by late 2026, the market may find the catalyst it has been looking for. A more hawkish signal — higher for longer, or any suggestion of hikes — could undo much of the weekend's recovery and bring $60,000 back into view.
In the meantime, some early signals are worth noting. Standard Chartered believes the cycle low is in at $59,000, pointing to three confirmations: ETF inflows returning, oil prices falling, and Strategy resuming purchases. All three appear to be falling into place — Bitcoin ETFs pulled in $85.8 million on Friday, and Saylor delivered on his word. On-chain, a seller exhaustion signal tracked by Glassnode showed that the market's largest whale cohorts added close to 11,000 BTC on the same day – see more in this week’s data story.
So where does that leave us? One source of uncertainty has eased. Whether the Fed provides another on Wednesday remains to be seen — but the answer may go a long way toward defining where Bitcoin goes.
Ethereum
ETH still in its early days? ETH's price may be struggling, but the institutional story is quietly accelerating. In a recent CoinDesk interview, Etherealize founder Vivek Raman described Ethereum as "the infrastructure for Wall Street" — and argued that large financial institutions have moved well beyond proof-of-concept, now deploying on public blockchains in production. Tokenized stocks, bonds, real estate, and funds are all expanding beyond stablecoins as the institutional entry point.
The price disconnect, Raman says, comes down to timing. Institutional sales cycles are long, and the full wave of assets has yet to migrate on-chain. The argument is that Ethereum's network effect — built on years of liquidity dominance and institutional deployments — has created the foundation, but the scale of adoption hasn't been reflected in the asset yet. When more tokenized assets settle on Ethereum, the expectation is that the market will reprice ETH's role accordingly, Raman argues. Which means we may simply be early. The infrastructure is there, the institutions are arriving, and ETH's price may just need time to catch up.
Macroeconomic roundup
Macro signals play tug of warMarkets head into the week on the front foot after the Iran peace deal lifted oil prices and risk sentiment. The calendar is packed — two central bank decisions, European inflation prints, and a stream of U.S. data all landing within 72 hours.
Eurozone CPI YoY (Jun 17): Confirms whether the ECB's recent hike is working — any upside surprise adds to the higher-for-longer narrative.
US Retail Sales MoM (Jun 17): A read on consumer spending that feeds directly into the Fed's economic projections released the same day.
UK CPI YoY (Jun 17): A hot print keeps pressure on the Bank of England to stay tight.
BoE Interest Rate Decision (Jun 18): The Bank of England navigates its own balancing act between slowing growth and sticky inflation.
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Jun 18): A miss here could further complicate the picture for U.S. economic momentum heading into the summer.
Initial Jobless Claims (Jun 18): Claims have been creeping higher — a reading above 220,000 would add weight to the case for eventual easing.
TradFi trends
The world’s first trillionaireSpaceX made history last week with the largest IPO ever, raising $75 billion at $135 per share before jumping 19% on its Nasdaq debut — briefly touching $176.50 intraday and closing at $161, pushing its market cap above $2 trillion. Shares continued climbing on Monday pre-market, hovering around $170.
The listing also made Elon Musk the world's first trillionaire. His 42% stake in SpaceX, combined with his Tesla holdings, put his total net worth at $1.11 trillion. SpaceX's business spans reusable rockets, the Starlink satellite network, and long-term ambitions around orbital data centers — a story that analysts say could take two decades to fully play out, but one the market appeared willing to bet on from day one.
The week's most interesting data story
What a whale wantsOne of the more reliable tools for identifying Bitcoin cycle bottoms is a metric called the Seller Exhaustion Constant — a Glassnode indicator that flags the moment when sellers have largely done their worst, capturing the point at which supply in profit is low, and volatility has compressed. Historically, it has marked the point where there is simply less left to sell.
On June 11, the signal flashed for only the second time in 2026. The last time it appeared, on February 12, Bitcoin went on to rally 24% over the following weeks. What followed this time was telling: two of the largest whale cohorts added close to 11,000 BTC — worth around $700 million — on the exact same day. Bitcoin has since rebounded from its $59,100 low back above $65,000, now testing resistance near $66,600. A sustained move above that level would open the path toward $70,000 and beyond, echoing the trajectory of the last signal. The metric and the market's largest holders are pointing in the same direction.
The numbers
The week’s most interesting numbers1% — The Bank of Japan raised rates to their highest level since 1995, and Bitcoin shrugged it off.
$2 trillion – U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs are closing in on $2 trillion in cumulative trading volume, less than two and a half years since launch.
18,712 BTC — The bitcoin position SpaceX brought to public markets via its record IPO this week — the largest bitcoin holding ever attached to a public listing
$100 million – Strategy purchased 1,587 BTC this week, bringing its total holdings to 846,842 BTC.
Hot topic
What the community is discussingSo the bottom is in?
Whales in the dip.
Is it Gold’s turn for a pullback?
Dispatch is a weekly publication by Nexo, designed to help you navigate and take action in the evolving world of digital assets. To share your Dispatch suggestions and comments, email us at [email protected].
Daily analysis of crypto markets and the forces shaping them, from the Nexo research desk.
Bitcoin holds above $65,000 as markets await Warsh's first Fed press conferenceThe crypto market is in a holding pattern ahead of today's Fed rate decision — the most consequential policy moment of the week. Bitcoin is down modestly to around $65,500, equity futures are pointing slightly higher with the Nasdaq up 0.9%, and Brent crude has stabilized around $79 after falling below $80 for the first time since March. Gold is steady near $4,328, the dollar index is hovering near a 10-day low at 99.55, and the euro is near one-week highs at $1.16. The U.S.-Iran framework deal continues to take shape ahead of Friday's signing ceremony in Switzerland, with details now emerging around a 14-point accord covering a permanent ceasefire, Hormuz reopening, and immediate Iranian oil export waivers. A hold at 3.5%–3.75% is universally expected from the Fed — what matters today is Warsh's first press conference and the updated dot plot.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin trades above $65,000, pulling back from yesterday's high near $67,000 as markets adopt a cautious stance ahead of the Fed. Derivatives markets are reflecting that caution — Bitcoin futures open interest has slipped back toward $30 billion after recovering through the first half of the month — a sign that positioning has lightened ahead of a decision that could move the market in either direction. The session is less about directional conviction and more about positioning ahead of a binary outcome: Warsh's tone on the rate path.
The key variable is not the hold itself but what Warsh signals about the months ahead. Updated economic projections are expected to show higher inflation and no rate cuts this year — with a subset of policymakers projected to favour hikes. If Warsh's press conference validates a clearly hawkish posture, the dollar would likely firm and risk assets would face renewed pressure. A more measured tone — acknowledging that falling oil meaningfully changes the inflation calculus — would be the more constructive outcome for Bitcoin. The $65,000 level is the immediate reference point heading into the press conference.
Ethereum & Altcoins
Ethereum trades around $1,780, outperforming Bitcoin on the day and continuing to show relative resilience. The standout mover of the session is Uniswap's UNI token, surging over 20% after Standard Chartered initiated coverage with a $100 price target by end-2030 and a $6.50 target for year-end 2026 — implying nearly 100% upside from current levels. The thesis centres on Uniswap's potential to become a major market infrastructure player as tokenized assets increasingly migrate to decentralized finance, with the exchange already hosting tokenized versions of major stocks and recently opening access to a major asset manager's tokenized fund. XRP, Solana, and BNB each fell less than 1%, while Cardano declined 2.6%.
Macro & Institutional
Details of the U.S.-Iran 14-point framework accord are emerging ahead of Friday's signing in Switzerland. The deal covers a permanent ceasefire including in Lebanon, the lifting of the U.S. naval blockade, Hormuz reopening, and immediate waivers for Iranian oil and petrochemical exports upon signing. Brent has stabilised around $79 after a near-10% decline over two sessions — still above pre-war levels but well off the $110 peak. The move has shifted market focus from geopolitical risk premium to the rate environment: with oil falling, the case for a December Fed hike has moderated, and today's dot plot will be the first formal read on how policymakers are incorporating that shift into their forecasts. Gold is holding near $4,328 after four consecutive sessions of gains, supported by a softer dollar and easing inflation concerns. A World Gold Council survey noted that a record 45% of central bank reserve managers expect to increase gold holdings over the next year.
SpaceX extended its post-IPO rally to close at around $201.80 on Tuesday — up roughly 50% from its $135 IPO price in four sessions, briefly surpassing Amazon and approaching Microsoft's market capitalisation. Total IPO proceeds reached $85.7 billion after underwriters exercised their greenshoe option. The rally has made Musk once again the world's wealthiest individual by a widening margin.
The SEC is preparing an innovation exemption that would allow crypto companies to offer blockchain-based tokenized stocks — a development that could structurally reshape equities markets by enabling 24/7 trading and instant settlement.
Looking Ahead
Today's Fed decision is the week's pivot point. The rate hold is certain — what matters is the dot plot and Warsh's press conference, where his framing of the inflation path in light of falling oil will set the tone for risk assets heading into summer. Thursday brings the Bank of England decision — widely expected to hold, alongside the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index and initial jobless claims. Friday's Iran deal signing ceremony in Switzerland is the geopolitical focal point of the week. For Bitcoin, a measured Fed tone today combined with a smooth deal signing on Friday would remove two of the cycle's most persistent headwinds simultaneously — the setup for the second half of June is more constructive than it has been at any point since February.
Author: Iliya Kalchev, Analyst at Nexo’s Dispatch
This material is produced by Nexo for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice, or a recommendation to transact in any digital asset. Views are the author's as of the date of publication and may change without notice. Information is from sources believed reliable, but Nexo makes no warranty as to its accuracy and accepts no liability for any loss arising from reliance on this material.
Daily analysis of crypto markets and the forces shaping them, from the Nexo research desk.
Bitcoin pulls back toward $64,000 as a hawkish Fed overshadows the Iran peace dealThe crypto market is digesting a busy 24 hours that delivered two major developments — a hawkish Fed and a signed Iran peace deal, the latter largely priced in ahead of the event — with the former driving the session's price action. Bitcoin retreated to $63,900, while Ethereum fell $1,733, as the broader crypto complex reprices a tighter rate environment. Equity futures are recovering, with S&P 500 futures up 0.9% and Nasdaq futures up 1.5%, buoyed by the Iran deal signing. Brent crude has extended its decline to around $78, down nearly 11% on the week, and the dollar index has climbed to its highest level since May 2025 at 100.71 as rate hike expectations firm. Gold is edging up modestly to around $4,269 after Wednesday's sharp decline. The total crypto market cap is under pressure but holding above recent lows as the market consolidates in a familiar range.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin is trading around $63,900, but still up approximately 2% on the week — a sign that the market is consolidating rather than capitulating. The selling is driven squarely by the Fed's dot plot, which showed nine of nineteen officials now pencilling in at least one rate hike in 2026, compared to none in the March projections. Futures markets are pricing an 83% probability of a hike by December, with a full hike priced by October. That repricing sent the 2-year Treasury yield up 14 basis points to 4.19% and lifted the dollar.
With the Iran deal now signed and the rate outlook repriced, the market has two of its dominant variables more clearly defined. Bitcoin has held in the low $64,000s through the selling, suggesting buyers are present but cautious. The $60,000–$70,000 range is where the market is likely to stay until a clearer catalyst arrives — the CLARITY Act signing or a further shift in the rate outlook are the most plausible near-term triggers.
Ethereum & Altcoins
Ethereum pulled back to around $1,733. XRP slipped to $1.17, Solana and Cardano both moved lower, and BNB edged down. Hyperliquid's HYPE was the week's standout performer — up around 28% over seven days after reaching a new all-time high — though it pulled back on Thursday as the broader risk-off move weighed. The GMCI 30 index tracking the top 30 cryptocurrencies by market cap is down on the session, bringing its year-to-date decline to nearly 36%.
Macro & Institutional
The Fed held at 3.5%–3.75% as expected, but the hawkish dot plot was the session's defining moment — nine of nineteen officials now project at least one hike this year, a marked shift from March. Warsh's first statement was stripped to 132 words, dropped forward guidance entirely, and ended with a single assertion: the FOMC "will deliver price stability." Five task forces were announced to review Fed communications, the balance sheet, data sourcing, the inflation framework, and AI's role in the economy. The message is clear — Warsh is focused on inflation and is deliberately reducing the hand-holding that markets have relied on under Powell. The near-term implication for crypto is a higher-for-longer rate environment with less predictable guidance, both of which cap upside.
On the geopolitical side, the U.S. and Iran signed the interim framework at a dinner in Versailles — earlier than the planned Switzerland ceremony. The 14-point deal covers a permanent ceasefire, gradual easing of U.S. oil sanctions, and Hormuz reopening within 30 days. Nuclear negotiations begin in Switzerland this weekend. Brent at $78 is now down nearly 11% on the week, and the IEA projects a global oil surplus of over 5 million barrels per day by 2027 once Middle Eastern production recovers — a structural shift that, if it holds, should meaningfully reduce the inflation premium that has driven hawkish central bank positioning since February.
SpaceX pulled back on Wednesday before recovering in premarket. The company announced a $60 billion all-stock acquisition of Anysphere, the startup behind AI coding agent Cursor — its first deal since going public and a direct move into the AI infrastructure space.
Looking Ahead
The Bank of England decision lands today — a hold at 3.75% is widely expected, but Bailey's forward guidance on inflation and the Iran deal's energy implications will be closely watched. U.S. jobless claims and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index also release, offering an early read on whether the labour market resilience underpinning the hawkish Fed shift is holding. For Bitcoin, the CLARITY Act's July 4 working deadline and progress of Iran nuclear negotiations in Switzerland this weekend are the two variables most worth watching. A deal that meaningfully reduces the energy inflation premium — combined with regulatory clarity, would be the combination most likely to break the current range.
Author: Iliya Kalchev, Analyst at Nexo’s Dispatch
This material is produced by Nexo for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice, or a recommendation to transact in any digital asset. Views are the author's as of the date of publication and may change without notice. Information is from sources believed reliable, but Nexo makes no warranty as to its accuracy and accepts no liability for any loss arising from reliance on this material.
Daily analysis of crypto markets and the forces shaping them, from the Nexo research desk.
Bitcoin pulls back toward $64,000 as a hawkish Fed overshadows the Iran peace dealThe crypto market is closing the week on a cautious note as two developments weigh on sentiment — the cancellation of planned U.S.-Iran nuclear talks in Switzerland and the continued repricing of the Fed's rate outlook. Bitcoin settled around $63,000, while Ethereum fell to $1,700, with the broader crypto complex marginally lower. U.S. markets are closed for the Juneteenth holiday, leaving global equities in holiday-thinned trading. Brent crude is hovering near $80, on course for a weekly decline of around 9% — its steepest in months, as Hormuz shipping shows early signs of recovery. The dollar index is near a 13-month high, gold is down to around $4,135, and the yen is approaching 40-year lows against the dollar, prompting fresh verbal warnings from Japanese officials.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin is trades above $63,000, on course for a modest weekly loss after briefly recovering toward $67,000 earlier in the week on Iran deal optimism. The Fed's hawkish dot plot — nine of nineteen officials now projecting at least one hike in 2026, has proved the more durable driver, pulling Bitcoin back toward the lower end of the range it has held for nearly two weeks. A hold above the $59,000–$60,000 lows set earlier this month remains the key structural test.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded outflows for a sixth consecutive week, though the pace continues to decelerate — a marginal positive within an otherwise cautious picture. On the derivatives side, there has been notable buying of put options spanning expirations from late June through July, with strikes clustered around $55,000–$60,000, reflecting near-term hedging activity rather than a directional call on the longer-term cycle.
Beneath the price action, Bitcoin's network fundamentals tell a more constructive story. Total daily transactions have climbed above 800,000 — near the highs of the 2023–2025 bull cycle, driven by a sharp rise in microtransactions. The Bitcoin Network Activity Index has risen steadily since January and is now only around 7% below its all-time high, having broken above its long-term trend in late March and held there even as prices moved lower. Network activity diverging positively from price is a structural signal worth watching as the market consolidates.
Ethereum & Altcoins
Ethereum pulled back to around $1,695. XRP slipped to $1.13, Solana fell to around $69, and BNB moved lower on the session. Hyperliquid's HYPE was the week's clear standout — up around 13% on the week despite pulling back on the day. On the institutional side, a major Wall Street bank filed amended ETF applications for both Ethereum and Solana spot funds. The filings include staking provisions, with a portion of held assets to be staked through established infrastructure providers. The bank's Bitcoin ETF, launched in April at the same fee rate, has already accumulated over $300 million in net inflows — a useful reference point for the appetite these products can attract when priced competitively.
Macro & Institutional
Planned U.S.-Iran talks in Switzerland were cancelled on Friday after Vice President Vance withdrew from the meeting. The cancellation does not invalidate the interim agreement — the U.S. has lifted its naval blockade of Iranian ports, tankers have begun transiting the Strait of Hormuz, and 18 transits were recorded across June 17–18, the highest single-window count of the conflict. A 60-day negotiation period for nuclear and broader issues remains in effect.
Brent is near $80, on course for its sharpest weekly decline in months. The IEA projects a global oil surplus of over 5 million barrels per day by 2027 once Middle Eastern production fully recovers — a structural shift that would meaningfully reduce the energy inflation premium embedded in current rate expectations. The dollar index is testing 13-month highs near 100.76 as markets price an 80% probability of a Fed rate hike by year-end. The yen is approaching 162, prompting increasingly direct verbal warnings from Tokyo about intervention — with the U.S. holiday creating a lower-liquidity window that has historically preceded Japanese currency interventions. Gold is on track for a third consecutive weekly decline as the higher-for-longer rate environment continues to weigh on non-yielding assets.
Looking Ahead
Monday brings ECB President Lagarde speaking, setting the tone for European rate expectations following last week's hike. Tuesday delivers the BoJ Core CPI reading alongside a wave of global PMI data — U.S. manufacturing and services PMIs will offer the first read on how falling oil is feeding through to business sentiment. Wednesday brings the ECB Economic Bulletin and the Fed's bank stress test results — the latter a useful gauge of the financial system's resilience heading into a potentially tighter rate environment. Thursday is the week's defining day — U.S. Core PCE for May lands alongside Q1 GDP and initial jobless claims, forming a near-complete picture of where inflation and growth stand. Core PCE is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge and the first major data point to test Warsh's hawkish framing — a reading above expectations would reinforce the case for a September hike, while a softer print would provide some breathing room for risk assets. For Bitcoin, the $59,000–$60,000 floor remains the key structural reference — holding above it keeps the consolidation thesis intact. The CLARITY Act's July 4 working deadline remains the most significant domestic catalyst on the horizon.
Author: Iliya Kalchev, Analyst at Nexo’s Dispatch
This material is produced by Nexo for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice, or a recommendation to transact in any digital asset. Views are the author's as of the date of publication and may change without notice. Information is from sources believed reliable, but Nexo makes no warranty as to its accuracy and accepts no liability for any loss arising from reliance on this material.
