Nebius: Scaling Its OperationsNebius (NBIS -13.58%) primarily constructs extensive computing infrastructure, operates cloud platforms designed for demanding workloads, and develops autonomous driving technologies alongside educational ventures for international clients.
In addition to introducing a new deployment model for on-premises infrastructure in July 2026, it reported a 21% gross margin for the quarter ended March 31, 2026.
Strategy: Maintaining a Steady BaselineStrategy (MSTR -2.09%) functions as a corporate Bitcoin treasury entity that offers investors varying degrees of economic exposure to digital assets, while additionally providing analytics software directly to global enterprises.
While facing new investigations regarding potential securities law violations in late June 2026, it recorded an earnings per share of -$38.25 for the quarter ended March 31, 2026.
Why Revenue Matters for Retail InvestorsRevenue provides insight into customer demand and business scale. This metric helps investors measure a company’s overall size, market footprint, and long-term trajectory.
Quarterly Revenue for Nebius and StrategyQuarter (Period End)Nebius RevenueStrategy RevenueQ2 2024 (June 2024)$12.1 million$111.4 millionQ3 2024 (Sept. 2024)$43.3 million$116.1 millionQ4 2024 (Dec. 2024)$37.9 million$120.7 millionQ1 2025 (March 2025)$55.3 million$111.1 millionQ2 2025 (June 2025)$105.1 million$114.5 millionQ3 2025 (Sept. 2025)$146.1 million$128.7 millionQ4 2025 (Dec. 2025)$227.7 million$123.0 millionQ1 2026 (March 2026)$399.0 million$124.3 millionData source: Company filings. Data as of July 24, 2026.
Foolish TakeThe revenue trends for Nebius and Strategy reveal the staggering difference between the former’s focus on infrastructure for the hot artificial intelligence sector against the latter’s dedication to Bitcoin.
Strategy’s sales are a relic of its roots as a data analytics software company. Even so, it achieved a solid 12% year-over-year increase in revenue during the first quarter. Yet these days, Strategy exists primarily as the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin. It exited Q1 with over 818,000 Bitcoin holdings, representing about 4% of the world’s supply.
As a result, Strategy’s fortunes are tied to the cryptocurrency. With Bitcoin’s value declining in 2026, Strategy’s stock has fallen a whopping 77% over the trailing 12 months through July 24.
As its revenue trend shows, Nebius has grown into an AI powerhouse. Its Q1 revenue of $399 million represents an impressive 684% year-over-year jump.
The company provides data center infrastructure to customers seeking AI computing power, but has been careful about relying too heavily on debt to fund its data center expansion. Its cautious fiscal approach combined with outstanding sales growth propelled its stock to more than a 250% share price increase in the past 12 months through July 24.
Nebius (NBIS -13.58%) is building specialized AI factories as power, cooling, networking, and usable computing capacity become critical industry bottlenecks. This video explores why that strategy could unlock a major growth opportunity, how the company differs from traditional cloud providers, and what must go right for investors to benefit.
Stock prices used were the market prices of July 15, 2026. The video was published on July 23, 2026.
Rick Orford has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. Rick Orford is an affiliate of The Motley Fool and may be compensated for promoting its services. If you choose to subscribe through their link, they will earn some extra money that supports their channel. Their opinions remain their own and are unaffected by The Motley Fool.
SummaryNebius remains a strong buy, leveraging open-source AI models and a vertically integrated data center strategy to capture surging AI demand.NBIS's Token Factory enables cost-effective managed inference, positioning the company as a formidable open-source competitor to Anthropic and OpenAI.Revenue is projected to grow 537% this year, with adjusted EBITDA margins reaching 45% in Q1, supporting a forward multiple compression from 60x to a ~7x sales steady state.Despite risks from closed-source model advancements, I expect NBIS to deliver ~40% annualized returns through 2030 as it shifts toward higher-margin AI services.Looking for option income ideas that focus on capital preservation? I offer this and much more at my exclusive investing ideas service, Option Income Builder. Learn More » quantic69/iStock via Getty Images
Back at the start of the year, I named Nebius (NBIS) my number one stock for 2026.
In that article - and my three other articles covering NBIS - I've rated shares a 'Strong Buy' every time, arguing that
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Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of NBIS either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.
California Public Employees Retirement System raised its position in shares of Nebius Group N.V. (NASDAQ:NBIS – Free Report) by 380.8% during the 1st quarter, according to the company in its most recent 13F filing with the Securities & Exchange Commission. The firm owned 240,388 shares of the company’s stock after purchasing an additional 190,388 shares during the quarter. California Public Employees Retirement System owned 0.10% of Nebius Group worth $24,943,000 at the end of the most recent quarter.
A number of other hedge funds also recently modified their holdings of the business. Parkside Financial Bank & Trust acquired a new position in Nebius Group during the fourth quarter valued at $25,000. Root Financial Partners LLC acquired a new position in shares of Nebius Group in the 4th quarter valued at about $26,000. SHP Wealth Management acquired a new position in shares of Nebius Group in the 4th quarter valued at about $26,000. Sound Income Strategies LLC lifted its position in shares of Nebius Group by 62.5% in the first quarter. Sound Income Strategies LLC now owns 260 shares of the company’s stock worth $27,000 after purchasing an additional 100 shares in the last quarter. Finally, Blue Trust Inc. boosted its holdings in shares of Nebius Group by 73.8% during the fourth quarter. Blue Trust Inc. now owns 332 shares of the company’s stock worth $28,000 after purchasing an additional 141 shares during the period. Hedge funds and other institutional investors own 21.90% of the company’s stock.
Nebius Group Stock Up 0.6% NBIS stock opened at $218.16 on Thursday. The firm has a market cap of $55.20 billion, a PE ratio of 70.37 and a beta of 4.10. Nebius Group N.V. has a 1 year low of $50.00 and a 1 year high of $299.86. The company has a fifty day simple moving average of $228.94 and a 200 day simple moving average of $155.95. The company has a current ratio of 8.33, a quick ratio of 8.33 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.16.
Nebius Group (NASDAQ:NBIS – Get Free Report) last posted its earnings results on Thursday, May 14th. The company reported ($0.23) EPS for the quarter, topping the consensus estimate of ($0.81) by $0.58. Nebius Group had a net margin of 95.27% and a negative return on equity of 9.11%. The firm had revenue of $399.00 million for the quarter, compared to the consensus estimate of $375.13 million. Nebius Group’s revenue was up 684.0% compared to the same quarter last year. Sell-side analysts anticipate that Nebius Group N.V. will post -1.91 EPS for the current fiscal year.
Key Nebius Group News Here are the key news stories impacting Nebius Group this week:
Positive Sentiment: Robert W. Baird initiated coverage with an “outperform” rating and a $250 price target, adding another bullish analyst call to the stock’s recent momentum. Benzinga article Positive Sentiment: Northland Securities raised its price target to $410, reinforcing the view that Nebius may still have significant upside if AI infrastructure demand keeps accelerating. Northland Securities Boosts Nebius Group (NASDAQ:NBIS) Price Target to $410.00 Positive Sentiment: Freedom Capital Markets upgraded Nebius from hold to strong-buy, which further boosted sentiment around the stock. Zacks.com article Positive Sentiment: Multiple reports highlighted Nvidia’s 9.3% stake in Nebius as a strong vote of confidence in the company’s AI cloud strategy, helping extend the stock’s rally. CNBC article Positive Sentiment: Nebius also benefited from attention on its $775 million debt facility, which supports expansion without relying as heavily on equity dilution. Zacks article Neutral Sentiment: One article noted the chairman sold a small block of shares, but the transaction was limited and does not appear to change the broader bullish thesis. Motley Fool article Wall Street Analyst Weigh In Several research analysts have weighed in on the stock. Robert W. Baird assumed coverage on shares of Nebius Group in a research note on Wednesday. They issued an “outperform” rating and a $250.00 price objective on the stock. Wolfe Research assumed coverage on shares of Nebius Group in a research note on Thursday, April 16th. They set a “peer perform” rating for the company. Bank of America upped their price target on shares of Nebius Group from $240.00 to $280.00 and gave the stock a “buy” rating in a research note on Monday, June 8th. Freedom Capital upgraded Nebius Group from a “hold” rating to a “strong-buy” rating in a report on Monday. Finally, Wall Street Zen raised Nebius Group from a “strong sell” rating to a “sell” rating in a research report on Saturday, May 16th. Two research analysts have rated the stock with a Strong Buy rating, ten have given a Buy rating and five have given a Hold rating to the company’s stock. Based on data from MarketBeat.com, the company currently has a consensus rating of “Moderate Buy” and an average price target of $222.15.
View Our Latest Report on NBIS
Insider Buying and Selling at Nebius Group In related news, CEO Arkadiy Volozh sold 46,627 shares of the firm’s stock in a transaction that occurred on Wednesday, July 1st. The stock was sold at an average price of $235.45, for a total value of $10,978,327.15. Following the transaction, the chief executive officer directly owned 821,662 shares of the company’s stock, valued at approximately $193,460,317.90. This trade represents a 5.37% decrease in their position. The sale was disclosed in a legal filing with the Securities & Exchange Commission, which is accessible through this link. Also, CRO Marc Boroditsky sold 10,776 shares of the firm’s stock in a transaction that occurred on Tuesday, June 2nd. The shares were sold at an average price of $276.20, for a total value of $2,976,331.20. Following the completion of the transaction, the executive directly owned 26,886 shares in the company, valued at $7,425,913.20. The trade was a 28.61% decrease in their ownership of the stock. The disclosure for this sale is available in the SEC filing. Insiders have sold a total of 668,405 shares of company stock worth $140,422,170 in the last 90 days.
Nebius Group Company Profile (Free Report)
Nebius Group N.V., a technology company, builds intelligent products and services powered by machine learning and other technologies to help consumers and businesses navigate the online and offline world. The company’s services include Nebius AI, an AI-centric cloud platform that offers infrastructure and computing capability for AI deployment and machine-learning oriented solutions; and Toloka AI that offers generative AI (GenAI) solutions at every stage of the GenAI lifecycle, such as data annotation and generation, model training and fine-tuning, and quality assessment of large language model for accuracy and reliability.
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Nvidia (NVDA +2.39%) disclosed this week that it beneficially owns 9.3% of Nebius Group (NBIS +0.61%), an artificial intelligence (AI) cloud infrastructure provider that has become one of the market's hottest stocks. The disclosure came in a Schedule 13G (which Nvidia filed under the rule for passive investors) covering about 22.3 million shares.
Investors treated it as a vote of confidence. Nebius shares jumped nearly 19% on Tuesday, to close at $217.09. The stock is up more than 300% over the past year.
But the market may be reacting to the headline number rather than the fine print. What Nvidia actually owns, and why, tells a more useful story for investors.
Image source: Nvidia.
Mostly a prepaid warrant, locked up until September The 9.3% figure comes with two big qualifiers.
First, the composition. Only about 1.2 million of the shares are common stock Nvidia holds outright. The rest (roughly 21 million shares) comes from a pre-funded warrant Nvidia bought outright with its previously announced $2 billion investment in Nebius, at an exercise price of $0.0001 a share. Nebius already counts those shares as outstanding for earnings-per-share purposes. Nvidia simply can't exercise the warrant or sell the shares before Sept. 11.
Second, the intent. A Schedule 13G is a passive filing. It signals that Nvidia isn't seeking control or pushing for changes. This is a financial and strategic position, not the opening move of a takeover.
Put another way, Nvidia didn't suddenly buy a tenth of Nebius on the open market this week. The filing largely formalizes a stake investors have known about since the $2 billion investment was announced. The market's 19% response says more about sentiment toward anything Nvidia touches than about new information.
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Why Nvidia wants equity in its own customer Nebius is what the industry calls a neocloud. It buys enormous quantities of graphics processing units (GPUs), overwhelmingly Nvidia's, and turns them into rentable AI computing capacity for customers who can't build their own. Nvidia taking equity in a company like that deepens a loop that already exists: Nebius gets capital and credibility, and Nvidia strengthens a fast-growing buyer of its chips while collecting a slice of the upside.
The stake also says something about demand. Nvidia doesn't need to prop up customers if AI computing capacity is going unsold. Putting $2 billion behind a company whose business is renting out Nvidia hardware is a bet that demand for that capacity keeps outrunning supply.
And Nebius has momentum to point to. Its revenue over the trailing 12 months totals about $878 million, and the demand evidence keeps stacking up. In March, Meta Platforms signed a long-term agreement to spend up to $27 billion on Nebius' AI infrastructure.
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The stock has moved just as violently. Shares traded below $50 within the past year, peaked at $299.86, and even after Tuesday's jump still sit about 28% below that high. Swings like that are the price of admission in this corner of the AI market, and investors should expect more of them.
The problem is the price. After Tuesday's jump, Nebius commands a market capitalization of about $55 billion, which is more than 60 times its trailing sales. A multiple like that prices in years of hypergrowth and flawless execution in one of the most capital-hungry businesses in technology.
After all, building AI infrastructure requires staggering amounts of money for data centers, power, and chips, and Nebius will likely need to keep raising capital to fund its expansion. Every dollar of that spending has to earn a return in a market where the largest cloud providers are building the same capacity.
Additionally, a passive minority stake doesn't guarantee Nebius preferential access to chips. It doesn't change the company's economics or its capital needs, and it doesn't make the valuation cheaper. Nvidia's endorsement is a point in the bull case, not a substitute for one.
The stake itself, though, is a meaningful signal. The most important company in AI wants this neocloud to succeed, and it has put real money behind that preference. For Nebius shareholders, that's comforting.
But at more than 60 times sales, the growth stock already prices in an awful lot of success, and Tuesday's pop made that math harder, not easier. I'd watch this one from the sidelines and let the next few quarters show if the growth can keep pace with the expectations.
The artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure provider Nebius (NASDAQ: NBIS) received a major – and first since June ended – vote of confidence from Wall Street in the form of a Baird stock price target revision.
Specifically, Baird initiated coverage of the company with an ‘Outperform’ – ‘Buy’ – rating and a $250 12-month forecast for a 15.25% rally from NBIS shares’ latest close at $216.92.
The bullish outlook is backed by the estimate that Nebius has bolstered its position as a full-stack provider with its Token Factory inference and that an ‘aggressive approach’ to mergers and acquisitions (M&A) is a welcome choice in the dynamic and rapidly evolving sector.
The Nebius Group started its life late in the last century as a search engine and operated – and traded – under the name Yandex until the 2022 Russian Invasion of Ukraine, when it was suspended from Nasdaq due to sanctions.
Its shares made a return to the public markets in 2024 after the firm sold the parts of its business in the Eastern European country and arguably joined the AI ‘boom’ in earnest earlier in 2026 with a $2 billion announced investment from Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA).
Analysts predict NBIS stock price in the next 12 months Meanwhile, Baird’s coverage is roughly in line with the Wall Street average. Indeed, analysts overall consider Nebius stock a ‘Moderate Buy,’ with five positive and three ‘Neutral’ recommendations, per the data Finbold retrieved from TipRanks on July 22.
Additionally, the average 12-month price target for NBIS shares is remarkably close to Baird’s estimate, considering it forecasts a 16.57% rally to $252.86 within the timeframe.
Wall Street sets Nebius stock price target for the next 12 months. Source: TipRanks Notably, while the latest Nebius stock price prediction is not the highest assigned within the last month, it is, nonetheless, rather bullish considering the equity fell 21.45% since June 30 – the day Goldman Sachs analyst Alexander Duval upgraded their target from $267 to $286.
2026 Nebius stock price performance Elsewhere, NBIS shares recently started a recovery from the downturn that has been affecting them through July. Though the equity remains 23.51% in the red on the monthly chart, it is up 10.45% in the last week of trading, and it soared 18.78% during the Tuesday session.
Nebius stock price one-month chart. Source: Google Lastly, the long-term charts are even more favorable, and Nebius rose 141.16% in 2026 and rallied 325.25% within the last 12 months.
Featured image via Shutterstock
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Shares of Nebius Group (NBIS +18.91%) surged on Tuesday after Nvidia (NVDA +2.10%) disclosed a sizable stake in the cloud infrastructure specialist.
Image source: Getty Images.
Backed by an AI leader In a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Nvidia said it owns 22,256,412 shares of Nebius via common stock and prefunded warrants. That amounts to a 9.3% equity stake in the data center operator, currently valued at about $5 billion.
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Nvidia and Nebius announced a strategic partnership in March. The two companies are working together to deploy high-performance cloud computing infrastructure geared toward artificial intelligence (AI) workloads.
"Nebius is building an AI cloud designed for the agentic era, fully integrated from silicon to software and powered by Nvidia's next-generation accelerated compute," Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said at the time. "Together, we are scaling the cloud to meet the surging global demand for intelligence."
The tech giants have an insatiable appetite for compute Nvidia isn't the only AI leader Nebius has partnered with. The neocloud provider has announced multibillion-dollar infrastructure deals with tech titans like Microsoft and Meta Platforms.
In all, Nebius has already secured over $40 billion in contracted revenue from its customers. With the AI boom still in its early innings, that figure is set to grow far larger in the coming years.
Joe Tenebruso has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Meta Platforms, Microsoft, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
John Wilson Boynton IV, Chairman of the Board of Directors at Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS +15.23%), sold 6,958 Class A Shares on July 15, 2026 according to the SEC Form 4 filing.
Transaction summaryMetricValueShares sold (directly held)6,958Transaction value~$1.4 millionPost-transaction shares (directly held)~421,000Post-transaction value$84.02 millionTransaction value based on SEC Form 4 weighted average sale price ($197.00); post-transaction value based on July 15, 2026 market close ($199.51).
Key questionsHow significant was this liquidation relative to the director's total position?
The sale of 6,958 shares represented 2% of Boynton's equity stake, leaving him with ~421,000 Class A Shares held directly.What were the execution details of the transaction?
The shares were sold at a weighted average price of $197.00, though individual trade prices ranged from $187.74 to $202.59 during the July 15 session.What is the company's current scale and operational focus?
Based in Amsterdam, the firm operates in the Communication Services sector with a market capitalization of $41.2 billion and a workforce of 1,543 employees focused on AI cloud infrastructure.How does the director's residual stake compare to the broader insider base?
Following the transaction, Boynton maintains a direct position valued at $84.02 million, contributing to a total insider ownership level of 0.18% as of the July 17, 2026 filing.Company OverviewMetricValueShare Price (as of market close 2026-07-16)$171.77Market Capitalization$41.2 billionRevenue (TTM)$877.9 millionNet Income (TTM)$836.4 millionCompany SnapshotNebius Group develops and operates a comprehensive AI-focused cloud infrastructure platform designed to serve the global artificial intelligence industry, featuring GPU computing clusters, cloud services, and developer tools.The company generates revenue through its Nebius cloud platform by providing essential infrastructure services to enterprises and developers requiring high-performance computing resources for AI workloads and applications.Nebius targets technology companies, enterprises, and developers globally who require scalable GPU computing and cloud infrastructure to support artificial intelligence development and deployment initiatives.Nebius Group N.V. is a technology infrastructure provider specializing in AI-centric cloud computing solutions with a market capitalization of $41.2 billion as of July 2026. The company has demonstrated exceptional growth momentum, with a one-year share price appreciation of 272.71%, reflecting strong investor demand for AI infrastructure providers.
With 1,543 employees and headquarters in Amsterdam, Nebius maintains a focused operational structure while scaling its GPU computing and cloud service offerings to meet accelerating global demand for AI infrastructure.
What this transaction means for investorsThe July 15 sale of Nebius Group stock by the company’s Chairman of the Board, John Boynton IV, occurred after shares soared nearly 300% over the past 12 months, although well after dropping from a 52-week high of $299.86 on June 22. The disposition represented just 2% of his holdings, which suggests he wanted to lock in some of his gains, but is holding on to over 400,000 shares in a sign he has a bullish outlook towards the stock.
Nebius shares are up because of its success as a neocloud, which is a cloud computing provider that specializes in data center infrastructure optimized for AI. Its first-quarter revenue rose an impressive 684% year over year to $399 million. It also disclosed a $2 billion investment from Nvidia, which demonstrates the AI semiconductor chip leader’s high conviction in Nebius’ infrastructure approach.
Unlike other neocloud rivals, Nebius is focused on carefully managing the financial impact of its data center expansion, as costs can quickly spiral out of control. It seeks prepayments from customers in order to reduce the capital needed from equity and debt financing, which has encouraged Wall Street to invest in the stock.
Key Takeaways NBIS secured a $775 million senior secured debt facility to accelerate global AI infrastructure expansion.Nebius' financing is backed by deployed GPUs and contracted cash flows from an investment-grade customer.NBIS delivered another AI infrastructure capacity tranche to Microsoft and targets remaining deployments. As demand for AI training and inference continues to outpace supply, companies with access to capital and the ability to deploy GPU infrastructure quickly stand to benefit the most. Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS - Free Report) has taken a major step in strengthening its position by securing its first senior secured debt facility worth approximately $775 million. This debt financing strengthens its capital position, providing additional funding to accelerate global AI infrastructure expansion, increase compute capacity and support long-term revenue growth while reducing reliance on equity financing.
The transaction also signals that lenders are increasingly willing to finance AI infrastructure backed by contracted revenues, creating a scalable funding model that could support Nebius' long-term growth ambitions. The debt facility is backed by deployed GPU infrastructure and contracted cash flows from an investment-grade customer, rather than relying solely on corporate borrowing. Maturing in 2030 with an interest rate of SOFR+2.5%, the financing fully funds the underlying AI infrastructure through debt proceeds and customer cash flows. This structure is notable because the financing effectively covers more than 100% of the capital required to deploy the underlying GPU infrastructure.
Lenders were drawn to Nebius' high-quality customer base, which generated more than $40 billion in contracted revenue from investment-grade customers, including Microsoft (MSFT - Free Report) and Meta. Nebius has delivered another planned AI infrastructure capacity tranche to Microsoft and remains on track to complete the remaining deployments. The milestone underscores the company's capacity to deliver large-scale AI infrastructure projects for one of the world's largest AI compute customers.
However, Nebius operates in an increasingly competitive landscape that includes hyperscalers such as Microsoft Azure, as well as AI-focused providers like CoreWeave, Inc. (CRWV - Free Report) .
Inside the Financing Strategies of NBIS’ Market RivalsCRWV closed an $8.5 billion delayed draw term loan facility (DDTL 4.0) in April, highlighting how financial markets are evolving to support the explosive growth of AI. With the DDTL 4.0 Facility, CoreWeave can access capital in stages as it scales its infrastructure. Initially, it can borrow up to $7.5 billion, with the flexibility to expand to $8.5 billion as its underlying assets mature and stabilize. Also, in May, CoreWeave closed a $3.1 billion DDTL 5.0 Facility to support the expansion of its AI cloud platform and customer deployments. CoreWeave's enhanced financing engine has unlocked lower-cost capital, helping it raise more than $20 billion in debt and equity.
Microsoft's financial position remains strong but is becoming more capital intensive, reflecting a rising infrastructure burden that warrants investor attention. The company ended third-quarter fiscal 2026 with $78.3 billion in cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments, while current debt increased to $8.8 billion and long-term debt was $31.4 billion. The combination of elevated capital intensity, finance lease obligations and large AI infrastructure requirements suggests Microsoft has sacrificed some balance sheet flexibility to fund growth initiatives and shareholder distributions. This financial fragility leaves limited cushion to weather economic challenges or competitive pressures, increasing downside risk for equity holders.
NBIS Price Performance, Valuation and EstimatesShares of Nebius have gained 118.2% year to date compared with the Internet – Software and Services industry’s growth of 12.4%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
In terms of price/book, NBIS’ shares are trading at 6.38X, higher than the Internet Software Services industry’s 3.87X.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NBIS’ earnings for 2026 has been revised slightly upward over the past 60 days.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
NBIS currently boasts a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Nebius Group (NBIS, Financials), an Amsterdam-based artificial intelligence computing infrastructure provider, jumped around 7% in premarket trading after Nvidi
After soaring more than 400% over the past year to $299, Nebius Group (NBIS +2.70%) stock has finally pulled back, falling roughly 32% from its peak (as of writing).
For many investors, that naturally raises the question: Is this an opportunity to buy one of the market's fastest-growing artificial intelligence stocks?
While the decline has made the stock more attractive than it was just a few weeks ago, investors shouldn't rush to buy simply because the share price is lower. After all, stocks don't become bargains because they fall. They become bargains when the underlying business improves faster than investor expectations.
That's the question investors should be asking about Nebius today.
Image source: Getty Images.
The business may actually be stronger today Despite the recent correction, nothing much has changed about Nebius' business.
The company recently reported revenue growth of 684% year over year to $399 million, while its AI cloud business grew an even more impressive 841%. Annual recurring revenue (ARR) reached a run rate approaching $2 billion, and management still expects ARR to reach between $7 billion and $9 billion by the end of 2026.
Those numbers suggest demand for Nebius' AI cloud platform remains exceptionally strong.
The broader industry backdrop also continues to support the company's growth. As enterprises increasingly adopt artificial intelligence (AI), demand for graphics processing units (GPUs) and AI cloud infrastructure remains robust.
The beauty of Nebius's business model is that it isn't building AI models itself. Instead, it provides the computing infrastructure needed to train and run them. In many ways, the company is selling the picks and shovels behind the AI boom.
So, regardless of which model wins eventually, Nebius will own a share of the market.
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So why did the stock fall? If the business continues performing well, why has the stock price declined? The answer, while not straightforward, probably lies in changing expectations.
Following its extraordinary rally, Nebius's stock was priced for near-perfect execution. Investors weren't simply expecting strong growth -- they were expecting the company to become one of the biggest winners in AI infrastructure.
When expectations become that high, even excellent businesses can see their share prices fall. To put it into perspective, the stock still trades at a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 58 times despite its recent correction.
In other words, likely, the market wasn't disappointed by Nebius' results. Instead, investors became more selective about how much they were willing to pay for AI infrastructure stocks after months of extraordinary gains.
Besides, there are also legitimate risks. Nebius plans to invest aggressively to expand its AI cloud infrastructure, requiring enormous capital expenditures over the coming years. In the first quarter of 2026 alone, the company's capex was $2.5 billion. While that spending could strengthen its competitive position, it also increases execution risk if AI demand eventually slows or supply catches up.
What should investors do now? For long-term investors, the recent pullback certainly makes Nebius more interesting than it was a month ago. But it doesn't automatically make the stock a bargain.
One lesson investors should not forget is that an exceptional business and an exceptional investment are not always the same thing. Even great companies can produce disappointing returns if investors pay too high a price.
Instead of focusing on the recent share price decline, investors should watch to see whether Nebius continues to sign long-term customer contracts, expand annual recurring revenue, generate attractive returns on capital, and build competitive advantages beyond simply renting GPUs.
If investors have conviction that Nebius can deliver on those fronts and are willing to tolerate volatility down the road, the recent stock correction could be a starting point to buy shares. Even then, they don't need to rush to load up.
But for the average conservative investor, Nebius's stock remains extremely risky due to its high valuation.
Nebius Group (NBIS +4.24%) is facing pressure after reports that Meta may rent out excess AI compute. But the bullish case centers on a bigger idea: the AI compute shortage may be so large that independent cloud providers can still thrive alongside big tech.
Stock prices used were the market prices of July 10, 2026. The video was published on July 18, 2026.
Rick Orford has positions in Meta Platforms. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Meta Platforms. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. Rick Orford is an affiliate of The Motley Fool and may be compensated for promoting its services. If you choose to subscribe through their link, they will earn some extra money that supports their channel. Their opinions remain their own and are unaffected by The Motley Fool.
Artificial intelligence infrastructure remains one of the market’s biggest investment themes, but it has also become one of its biggest sources of anxiety. Hyperscalers including Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META | META Price Prediction), Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), and Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOG) are committing hundreds of billions of dollars annually to data centers, GPUs, and networking equipment, prompting concerns that debt and capital spending are getting ahead of future demand.
Yet not every financing announcement deserves the same reaction. Nebius Group (NASDAQ:NBIS) demonstrated that point today after unveiling a new funding agreement that appears to strengthen — not weaken — its long-term investment case.
The market agreed, as shares are gaining about 3% in midday trading today following the announcement it secured $775 million in its first secured debt financing, with proceeds earmarked for expanding its global AI infrastructure footprint.
Why This Debt Looks Different Debt has become a dirty word in AI investing, but context matters. Nebius’s latest financing differs from the massive borrowing programs undertaken by the largest cloud providers because of both its structure and purpose.
Unlike the convertible notes Nebius previously issued, this financing is secured by tangible assets, likely including data centers and related infrastructure. Asset-backed debt generally carries lower borrowing costs while avoiding the shareholder dilution that often accompanies convertible securities.
Just as important, lenders don’t extend secured financing without rigorous due diligence. The collateral must have measurable value, and the underlying business needs enough visibility to support repayment. In that sense, this financing serves as another vote of confidence in Nebius’s expanding infrastructure platform.
Let’s not overlook timing either. AI compute remains in short supply, allowing infrastructure providers to monetize new capacity quickly when backed by committed customers.
Fueling A Business Already Growing Rapidly Nebius isn’t borrowing simply to keep the lights on. The financing is designed to accelerate a business already benefiting from powerful industry tailwinds.
The company has landed major contracts with hyperscalers, including Meta, while maintaining a close relationship with Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA), whose GPUs remain the backbone of AI training and inference workloads. Those partnerships provide more revenue visibility than many early-stage infrastructure companies enjoy.
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That visibility matters because Nebius is pursuing an ambitious global expansion strategy centered on building GPU clusters and data centers capable of serving enterprise and hyperscale customers. Every new facility creates additional revenue-generating capacity.
Ironically, this is where Nebius differs from many concerns surrounding hyperscaler debt. Meta, Microsoft, and Alphabet will each spend between $100 billion and $200 billion this year on AI infrastructure from already enormous revenue bases. Nebius, by comparison, is much smaller, making percentage growth far higher while requiring far less absolute capital to expand.
The financing also diversifies Nebius’s capital structure. Moving beyond equity raises and convertible debt lowers its weighted average cost of capital while demonstrating that traditional lenders increasingly view its infrastructure as financeable assets rather than speculative projects.
The Risks Haven’t Disappeared Granted, investors shouldn’t mistake this announcement for a guarantee of success. Nebius still carries debt from earlier convertible offerings, while constructing AI data centers remains expensive and operationally challenging. Delays, cost overruns, or weaker-than-expected AI demand could reduce utilization rates and pressure returns on those investments. Competition from hyperscalers that eventually monetize excess computing capacity also remains a long-term consideration.
Those risks deserve monitoring, but today’s financing actually reduces one of the biggest uncertainties: whether Nebius could continue funding its aggressive expansion without leaning heavily on shareholder dilution.
Key Takeaway In short, Nebius’s $775 million secured financing is more than another capital raise. It represents validation from sophisticated lenders that the company’s infrastructure has meaningful collateral value and that its expansion plans are supported by visible demand. Combined with its relationships with Meta and Nvidia, the financing strengthens a growth narrative that was already gaining traction.
For investors looking beyond today’s 3% share-price gain, this announcement suggests Nebius is evolving from a promising AI upstart into a company capable of financing growth on increasingly favorable terms. In an industry where access to capital often determines who wins, that’s an encouraging milestone.
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Key Takeaways NBIS is expanding AI cloud capacity, products and partnerships while demand continues to exceed supply.C3.ai is restructuring operations, expanding AI adoption and improving enterprise product execution.NBIS reaffirmed its 2026 guidance, while AI faces revenue and profitability challenges Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS - Free Report) and C3.ai, Inc. (AI - Free Report) are capitalizing on the rapid adoption of AI, but they are pursuing distinct growth strategies to capture the expanding market opportunity. While Nebius is building an AI-native cloud infrastructure platform with a focus on hyperscale computing capacity, C3.ai is strengthening its enterprise AI software business through organizational changes, product enhancements and broader adoption of AI across its operations.
Both companies remain focused on expanding their AI capabilities and scaling their businesses to meet rising enterprise demand. However, their growth strategies, execution priorities and business models differ significantly, making the comparison important for investors seeking exposure to the AI sector.
Let’s evaluate their fundamentals, growth prospects, market challenges and valuations to determine which stock presents a stronger investment opportunity.
The Case for NBISNebius is rapidly expanding its AI-native hyperscaler platform by investing aggressively in capacity, products, customers and capital to strengthen its position in the AI infrastructure market. During the first quarter of 2026, the company increased its contracted power capacity from more than 2 gigawatts to more than 3.5 gigawatts and now expects to reach at least 4 gigawatts by the end of 2026. It also announced a new Pennsylvania facility that will support 1.2 gigawatts of power when fully operational. More than 75% of its contracted capacity is now owned, supporting its strategy of building a vertically integrated full-stack AI cloud platform. Management stated that the company is executing across four key pillars, capacity and scale, product and functionality, customers and demand, and capital, while remaining focused on disciplined execution across each area.
The company continues to expand beyond compute into cloud services that cover the complete AI lifecycle, including bare-metal infrastructure, multi-tenancy, inference and emerging agentic capabilities. NBIS strengthened its software and AI offerings through the acquisitions of Tavily, Eigen AI and Clarifai, which added experienced AI engineers and researchers while improving inference optimization, Token Factory capabilities and agentic search functionality. Management emphasized that these acquisitions accelerate product development, deepen customer engagement and strengthen Nebius' position as a full-stack AI cloud provider capable of serving a broader range of AI workloads.
Nebius is further reinforcing its AI leadership through an expanded partnership with NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA - Free Report) . The company achieved NVIDIA Exemplar Cloud status for GB300 training workloads, making it one of only a small number of cloud providers recognized across multiple GPU generations. Management noted that the partnership extends beyond hardware, providing differentiated GPU supply, closer collaboration on future NVIDIA platforms and deeper software integration for inference and agentic AI workloads. These initiatives strengthen Nebius' vertically integrated AI cloud platform while supporting future deployments built around NVIDIA's latest technologies.
Customer demand for Nebius' AI infrastructure remains exceptionally strong across AI-native companies, enterprises and software vendors, as well as industries including fintech, physical AI, life sciences, manufacturing, energy and pharmaceuticals. Management stated that several customers typically compete for every GPU brought online, while first-quarter pipeline generation increased 3.5 times sequentially. Demand continues to exceed available capacity, allowing the company to maintain strong pricing across GPU generations, extend contract durations, increase average contract values and receive growing customer prepayments to secure future AI capacity. The company also highlighted increasing momentum for its inference-focused Token Factory platform as AI adoption expands across enterprise and developer workloads.
Nebius delivered outstanding financial and operational performance during the first quarter, reflecting the strength of its expanding AI cloud business. Group revenue increased 684% year over year, while the Nebius AI business recorded 841% revenue growth and reached an annualized run-rate revenue of $1.9 billion. Group adjusted EBITDA margin improved to 32%, while the Nebius AI business achieved a 45% adjusted EBITDA margin. The balance sheet was further strengthened by a $4.3 billion convertible note offering, a $2 billion equity investment from NVIDIA and record customer prepayments, increasing cash and cash equivalents to $9.3 billion. Supported by this momentum, the company reaffirmed its 2026 guidance for annualized run-rate revenue of $7-$9 billion, group revenue of $3-$3.4 billion and an adjusted EBITDA margin of around 40%.
However, Nebius expects quarterly adjusted EBITDA margins to fluctuate during 2026 as it invests ahead of future capacity deployment. Management indicated that margins are likely to decline in the second quarter because infrastructure investments and operating expenses will be recognized before newly deployed capacity begins generating revenue. The company has also increased its 2026 capital expenditure guidance to $20-$25 billion from the previous $16-$20 billion range to support additional AI infrastructure planned for 2027. Nebius expects to utilize a combination of asset-backed financing, corporate debt, customer prepayments and other funding alternatives while maintaining a disciplined capital structure.
The Case for AIC3.ai is gaining from a broad restructuring initiative aimed at strengthening execution across the business. The company has reorganized its sales, products, services and federal operations under new leadership while introducing a strategic plan with clearly defined objectives. Product development has been consolidated under a single organization responsible for designing, developing, quality-assuring and delivering products, while the services organization has been redesigned with dedicated customer teams to support deployments through completion. Management highlighted that these changes are intended to improve customer satisfaction, enable more successful deployments and support the expansion of enterprise customer relationships.
The company is expanding its AI-first strategy by integrating agentic AI tools across the organization to improve productivity and execution. The company stated that its product teams are now using AI tools for programming activities, while legal, finance, sales and marketing functions have also adopted these agentic technologies. Sales teams are utilizing these tools to enhance market development, business development and customer penetration strategies. Management added that employees across every function are operating with an agentic AI-first mindset as the company focuses on execution and improving overall business performance.
C3.ai also highlighted several operational strengths, including a strong liquidity position and continued customer engagement. In fourth-quarter fiscal 2026, it signed nine initial production deployments, bringing the cumulative total to 417, with 251 remaining active through ongoing deployments, extensions or subscription and consumption agreements. Management also stated that cost reduction initiatives are progressing as planned and are expected to improve operating efficiency, free cash flow and support the company's long-term objectives.
However, C3.ai continues to face challenges from weak financial performance and declining revenue. Management acknowledged that the company's recent performance has been disappointing, describing sales execution as unacceptable and attributing the decline in revenue, remaining performance obligations and profitability primarily to poor sales discipline. The company reported quarterly revenue of $51.6 million, a non-GAAP operating loss of $54.4 million, a non-GAAP net loss of $48.8 million and negative free cash flow of $54.8 million.
C3.ai also indicated that uncertainty remains as it implements its new go-to-market strategy. On the last earnings call, management stated that the company has changed its sales organization and go-to-market approach, making it difficult to predict the future mix between software revenue, professional services, prioritized engineering services and demonstration licenses.
Share Performance for NBIS & AIIn the past six months, NBIS stock has surged 79.8% while AI lost 30.1%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Valuation for NBIS & AIIn terms of Price/Book, NBIS shares are trading at 6.21X, higher than AI’s 2X.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
How Do Estimates Compare for NBIS & AI?Over the past 60 days, analysts have marginally revised estimates upward for NBIS’ bottom line for the current year.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
For AI, estimates have been revised significantly upward over the past 60 days.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
NBIS or AI: Which Stock is the Better Investment?While NBIS sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) at present, C3.ai has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). Consequently, in terms of Zacks Rank, NBIS seems to be a better pick at the moment. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of NVDA, AMD either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.
Nebius Raises $775M for AI Buildout“This financing is an important step in that strategy, and reinforces our confidence that our disciplined, diversified approach… will enable us to build a sustainable AI cloud business with strong and durable margins,” said Ophir Nave, COO of Nebius.
The New Partnership ModelSeparately, Nebius introduced a business model allowing infrastructure partners to deploy its AI cloud platform within their own data centers. Partners finance, own, and operate the facilities, while Nebius supplies its architecture, hardware design, and software stack, then brings the resulting capacity to market through its sales organization — expanding Nebius’ available capacity with minimal incremental capital.
“Our new asset-light model gives infrastructure partners a flexible way to benefit from the explosive growth of AI,” said Arkady Volozh, founder and CEO of Nebius.
Nebius Shares RiseNBIS Price Action: At the time of publication, Nebius shares are trading 4.42% higher at $185.57, according to data from Benzinga Pro.
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Artificial intelligence is creating a new industrial buildout unlike anything investors have seen in decades. Hyperscalers are committing hundreds of billions of dollars to data centers, chips, and power infrastructure because AI workloads require an entirely new computing backbone. The biggest question is shifting from whether AI demand exists to which companies will capture the economic value created by that demand.
That opportunity has pushed investors to search beyond the established hyperscalers for the next generation of AI infrastructure winners. Nebius Group (NASDAQ:NBIS | NBIS Price Prediction) could be the one to achieve it.
Nebius Is Building A Hyperscaler-Style Business Respected independent research firm Wolfe Research believes Nebius could generate $34 billion in revenue and $21 billion in EBITDA by 2030. That sounds ambitious, but it is not too far off from Nebius’s own forecasts, as it has the kind of contracted demand that most early-stage infrastructure companies can only hope to secure.
The company’s own long-range model projects:
Metric Fiscal Year 2026 Fiscal Year 2030 Revenue $3 billion $33.3 billion ARR $7 billion $34 billion Gross Profit — $23.3 billion Gross Margin — ~70% That means Nebius expects revenue to compound at roughly 80% annually from FY26 through FY30 before slowing to a more mature growth rate.
Mature cloud businesses at Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) and Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) trade at roughly 15 to 20 times EBITDA once their cloud operations become established. If Nebius reaches Wolfe Research’s $21 billion EBITDA forecast and receives even the lower end of that multiple range, the math looks like this:
EBITDA Multiple Implied Enterprise Value 15x ~$315 billion 20x ~$420 billion That estimate does not include any growth beyond 2030 or a scarcity premium for owning one of the few independent AI infrastructure platforms operating at global scale. If Nebius continues expanding after 2030 and pushes revenue toward $60 billion to $70 billion, a trillion-dollar valuation starts looking plausible.
The Vineland Data Center Is The Growth Catalyst The key to Nebius reaching those targets is capacity. Its Vineland, NJ, data center is designed as a 2.6 million-square-foot AI factory developed with DataOne using Bloom Energy (NYSE:BE) fuel cells for off-grid power. It is expected to become fully operational in 2027 and Nebius already has demand waiting.
The company has signed $46 billion in contracts with Microsoft and Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META), including its largest agreement: a $27 billion Meta deal beginning in early 2027. The structure gives Nebius flexibility: If Meta needs the capacity, Nebius fills it; if another customer offers higher returns, the company can redirect that capacity toward the open GPU market.
That contracted backlog changes the investment story. Instead of building data centers and hoping customers arrive, Nebius is building infrastructure around already committed demand.
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Margins Determine Whether Nebius Becomes A Giant Margins are what create trillion-dollar companies. The encouraging sign is that Nebius is not relying only on hyperscaler contracts. Its non-hyperscaler cloud pipeline expanded 3.5 times quarter-over-quarter in Q1, showing demand from enterprise customers is developing alongside its largest agreements.
The company is also moving higher into the AI stack. Nebius acquired Eigen AI for $643 million, bringing its technology into its Token Factory inference platform. Inference — the process of running trained AI models — could become a larger and higher-margin opportunity as businesses move from experimenting with AI to deploying it.
Granted, building AI factories requires enormous capital spending. Nebius will need to execute on construction timelines, secure GPUs, manage dilution, and maintain pricing power as competitors expand.
The company currently trades around a $45 billion market capitalization, meaning investors are already pricing in substantial future success.
Key Takeaway In short, if the company reaches its FY30 targets of roughly $33 billion in revenue and $21 billion in EBITDA, a $300 billion to $500 billion valuation is possible based on cloud infrastructure multiples. That would translate into a potential share price range of roughly $880 to $1,500 by 2030.
Those numbers are speculative and depend on execution, but the opportunity is clear. Nebius is attempting to become the AI infrastructure layer between GPU suppliers and the companies racing to deploy artificial intelligence.
For investors comfortable with the risks of an early-stage hyperscaler, the potential payoff comes from owning the next platform before the market decides it has already arrived.
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Jim Cramer believes forced selling is creating opportunities, but investors should resist buying too early. During his July 17, 2026, Mad Money Lightning Round, he recommended two defensive dividend stocks while urging patience on semiconductors and highly speculative names. His message was simple: “The speculative hands are being margined out. They’re going to get rid of them, and you’ll get a better price if you want to buy.“
Wait to Buy Semiconductors Until the Margin Sellers Are Gone On a caller’s semiconductor question, Cramer advised being patient: “It’s a semiconductor and all semiconductor stocks are going down. May I suggest that you wait a few more days until we get rid of all the margin players, and you’re going to find a bottom. I don’t see it yet.”
NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA | NVDA Price Prediction) fundamentals remain intact. Q1 FY2027 delivered $81.61B in revenue, up 85.2% YoY, with Data Center revenue of $75.25B. But Polymarket assigns only a 60.5% probability that NVDA closes above $200 by end of July and just 37% above $210. Reddit sentiment fell into bearish territory (scores 32 to 46) July 7 through 9 on DeepSeek chip news and server delay reports.
Cramer Warns Nebius Is “Not Done Going Down” Cramer’s sharpest warning targeted Nebius Group (NASDAQ:NBIS): “It is at the nexus of the craziness right now. There are a lot of hedge funds that own it, and I think they’re in a lot of trouble. This stock is not done going down. There’ll be another time to buy it, but that time is not now.”
Shares fell 35.21% over the past month and 20.55% in the past week, closing at $171.77 on July 16. Fundamentals are strong (Q2 revenue of $399M, up 279.6% YoY, an NVIDIA $2B pre-funded warrant investment, and a $12B Meta contract), but shares trade at 57.7x sales and 68x forward earnings.
Cramer Says Clorox’s 5% Yield Is Finally Worth Buying Cramer’s headline call was on Clorox (NYSE:CLX). “I read my first positive note about Clorox in a great deal of time today. That was a price target increase that made me say 5% yield. You know what? We want to buy it.“
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Clorox pays $1.24 quarterly, or $4.96 annualized, translating to a 5.12% yield. Shares closed at $98.71 on July 16, down 18.67% over the past year. The stock trades at 15x forward earnings with a 0.53 beta, making it a classic defensive setup Cramer wants against margin-driven volatility.
Fiscal Q3 delivered mixed signals. Adjusted EPS came in at $1.64, beating the $1.55 estimate, though management sharply lowered FY2026 guidance to $5.45-$5.65 in adjusted EPS, citing ERP transition, inventory normalization, and GOJO integration dilution as drivers of organic sales declines. CEO Linda Rendle called results “mixed, with continued momentum in some parts of our portfolio and slower-than-anticipated market share recovery in others.”
Why Cramer Prefers Coca-Cola Over Its Largest Bottler Asked about the bottlers, Cramer chose the parent: “I would go for Coke. I think that’s a better stock.” Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO) is up 23.1% year to date, delivered Q1 EPS of $0.86 on 12.1% revenue growth, and pays $0.53 quarterly. Coca-Cola Consolidated posted a 70 bps gross margin contraction due to aluminum tariff costs and yields materially less on its $0.25 quarterly payout.
Quanta’s $48.5 Billion Backlog Makes This Selloff Worth Watching Quality cyclicals aren’t immune. Quanta Services (NYSE:PWR) has come down from $788 to $630, retracing 12.26% in a month even after posting a record $48.5B backlog. Cramer’s advising for investors to let leveraged sellers finish selling, then step into names where cash flow, dividends, and backlog do the heavy lifting.
Key Takeaways Cramer sees Clorox and Coca-Cola as dependable defensive holdings, while semiconductors may become attractive once forced selling subsides. More speculative names such as Nebius could have further to fall. The opportunity, in Cramer’s view, will come after leveraged sellers have been cleared out and strong businesses can be purchased at more attractive prices.
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Nebius Group (NASDAQ:NBIS | NBIS Price Prediction) shares are up 8% to $186 in Friday afternoon trading, rebounding after Thursday’s 14% plunge that closed the stock at $171.77. The catalyst: Nebius’s first-ever senior secured debt facility, a deal designed to fund its AI buildout without new share issuance.
The move stands out because the broader tape is soft. The Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ) was tracking lower, underscoring that this is an idiosyncratic, positive catalyst rather than a beta rally. Nebius stock remains up 117% year to date.
Today’s price action follows a rough ride on Thursday, July 16, with Nebius sinking as the neocloud trade unraveled. Today’s rebound directly addresses the dilution fear at the heart of that selloff.
Debt Deal Eases the Dilution Overhang According to the company’s announcement, Nebius landed a $775 million loan backed by GPU hardware already deployed in its data centers plus cash flows from an existing customer contract. The structure converts revenue-generating infrastructure into fresh growth capital, and Nebius says it can be replicated.
The importance is straightforward. Nebius had guided to $22.5 billion in 2026 capital expenditures, and how to fund that number was the central investor question. By tapping asset-backed debt instead of equity, Nebius answers the bear thesis from Thursday head-on. The company also cited more than $40 billion in additional contracted revenue from investment-grade customers, including Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) and Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META), and confirmed it remains on track with its Microsoft capacity deployment.
Nebius’s $2 billion pre-funded warrant investment from NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) remains the anchor validation for its GPU fleet. NVIDIA stock was little changed during Friday’s afternoon session.
CoreWeave Wrote the Playbook CoreWeave (NASDAQ:CRWV) is the closest neocloud pure-play, and it used the same approach earlier this year. Per the reporting, CoreWeave closed an $8.5 billion asset-backed delayed-draw term loan to fund its GPU buildout. Asset-backed debt has effectively become the sector’s preferred way to finance AI infrastructure without diluting shareholders.
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CoreWeave shares tell the other side of the story. CoreWeave stock is up 1% Friday but is down 44% over the past year as debt-load concerns and profitability questions have weighed on the name. Nebius’s positive EBITDA profile has become a key differentiator in that comparison.
A Diversified Way to Play the Theme For investors who want AI infrastructure exposure without single-stock volatility, the Global X Data Center and Digital Infrastructure ETF (NASDAQ:DTCR) is worth a look. The ETF doesn’t hold Nebius or CoreWeave and skews toward established data-center REITs, plus chipmakers like NVIDIA.
The trade-off is clear. The DTCR ETF sacrifices direct AI-compute leverage for lower volatility, and single-sector concentration risk remains.
Bull and Bear Cases: What to Watch The bull case is that non-dilutive, asset-backed financing answers the dilution worry, reinforces Nebius’s capital-efficiency narrative, and comes on top of the NVIDIA anchor and a large contracted revenue book. Retail sentiment reflects that, with r/stocks activity hitting a very bullish sentiment score of 82 during and after the announcement window.
The bear case is that Nebius still adds secured leverage against its GPU fleet, its trailing P/E ratio of 70x is elevated, and today is a one-day bounce after a brutal month. The neocloud derating could resume.
Given NBIS stock’s high-beta profile, position sizing matters here. Investors can watch for whether Friday’s gains hold into the close, updates on the Meta Platforms contract ramp, and the Q2 FY2026 report for the next capacity milestones.
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Futurum's Dave Nicholson says there's "no lack of demand" for AI compute and believes data centers are well-positioned to capture that demand. Nebius (NBIS) is the company he expects to have the least risk due to its lack of debt compared to competitors like CoreWeave (CRWV) and Applied Digital (APLD).
"Nebius is at the nexus of the craziness right now. This stock is not done going down. There will be another time to buy it, but that time is not now," Cramer said on Thursday night’s episode of “Mad Money.”
NBIS is down about 20% over the past five days and down 35% over the past month. Photo: Shutterstock
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Artificial intelligence infrastructure remains one of the market's biggest investment themes, but it has also become one of its biggest sources of anxiety.
AMSTERDAM--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Nebius Group N.V. (Nasdaq: NBIS), the AI cloud company, today announced that it has entered into its first senior secured debt facility for approximately $775 million. Nebius intends to use the proceeds of the transaction to further accelerate the global build-out of its full-stack AI cloud platform. The vehicle is backed by deployed GPU infrastructure and contracted cash flows from an agreement with an investment-grade customer. The facility matures October 31, 2030.
Nebius Group NASDAQ: NBIS detailed a series of new cloud platform features during a product release event, highlighting additions across AI assistance, orchestration, cost controls, security, storage and developer programs.
Key Takeaways Nebius launched an asset-light AI cloud model using partner-owned data centers to expand capacity faster.NBIS will provide platform, hardware design, deployment, maintenance and customer management.Nebius plans flexible partnership models to create recurring revenues beyond AI cloud compute services. Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS - Free Report) recently introduced a new asset-light AI cloud business model that could accelerate its growth while reducing capital intensity. The strategy enables infrastructure partners to deploy Nebius' complete AI cloud platform within their own data centers, allowing it to expand its capacity globally without incurring the full cost of building every facility itself. This initiative positions NBIS to compete more effectively in the rapidly growing AI infrastructure market.
Under this partnership model, infrastructure partners finance, own and operate AI data centers, while Nebius provides systems architecture, hardware design, supply-chain expertise, its AI cloud platform, deployment, maintenance, customer acquisition and service management. Once operational, partner-owned facilities are integrated into Nebius' global AI cloud network. By enabling partners to fund these investments, the company can expand capacity much more quickly while conserving cash for software development, platform improvements, and customer acquisition. Major cloud providers often lease data center space instead of owning every facility. Similarly, semiconductor companies frequently outsource manufacturing while focusing on design and customer relations. Nebius is effectively applying this asset-light philosophy to AI cloud infrastructure.
Furthermore, Nebius plans to use flexible partnership structures, including revenue-sharing, software licensing, commission-based and committed-capacity agreements. This adaptable approach enables the company to customize partnerships across markets while creating recurring revenue streams beyond traditional AI cloud compute services. While competition in AI cloud services remains fierce from CoreWeave, Inc. (CRWV - Free Report) and Microsoft (MSFT - Free Report) and execution risks persist, it appears well-positioned to benefit from the long-term expansion of the AI infrastructure market.
NBIS vs. Hyperscalers & Emerging RivalsCoreWeave offers a purpose-built AI cloud platform that integrates the full AI stack, from data centers and storage to infrastructure software, runtime acceleration and application development tools. Its platform is optimized for large-scale AI training and inference, while Mission Control provides unified security, observability, orchestration and lifecycle management to improve performance, reliability and operational efficiency. AI workloads are shifting from training to inference and enterprise production, driving deeper commitments from existing customers while attracting new enterprise clients. This momentum fueled record backlog additions in the first quarter, with most of the new business expected to support its 2027 growth targets.
Microsoft's business model spans multiple high-growth segments, collectively reducing concentration risk while providing numerous expansion vectors. This diversification across productivity software, cloud infrastructure, business applications and professional networking creates resilient cash flow generation across economic cycles. The company's ability to cross-sell solutions and bundle offerings enhances customer lifetime value while creating switching costs. Multiple model support, including partnerships, enables customers to optimize cost and performance while maintaining Microsoft as their primary AI infrastructure provider. This leadership position in both AI infrastructure and applications should drive incremental revenue streams and margin expansion as adoption accelerates throughout fiscal 2026 and beyond.
NBIS Price Performance, Valuation and EstimatesShares of Nebius have gained 138.4% year to date compared with the Internet – Software and Services industry’s growth of 12.5%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
In terms of price/book, NBIS’ shares are trading at 6.97X, higher than the Internet Software Services industry’s 3.87X.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NBIS’ earnings for 2026 has been revised significantly upward over the past 60 days.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
NBIS currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
AMSTERDAM--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Nebius (Nasdaq: NBIS), the AI cloud company, today announced a new business model that lets infrastructure partners deploy Nebius’s full-stack AI cloud platform in their own AI data centers. The model brings additional capacity to Nebius customers, and expands the availability of value-added AI compute globally at a time when demand continues to outstrip supply.
Under the model, partners finance and own the infrastructure and hardware, and operate the data centers. Nebius supplies its systems architecture and supply-chain access; deploys and maintains its hardware design and software and services stack on the partner infrastructure; and takes the resulting capacity to market through its global sales organization.
Partners get fully-owned AI infrastructure assets, designed to Nebius standards, and a fast route to serve the AI cloud market. Nebius’s architecture and platform transform a partner’s raw capacity into a production-ready AI cloud, which Nebius then connects to customers. Because Nebius brings the demand, partners can begin generating a return as soon as the capacity goes live.
For Nebius, this asset-light approach expands the capacity it can offer its customers, such as AI natives and enterprises, with minimal incremental capital requirements. Partners’ data centers will join the Nebius capacity pool, adding incremental capacity to that coming online from Nebius’s owned data centers and colocations.
Arkady Volozh, founder and CEO of Nebius, said:
“Our new asset-light model gives infrastructure partners a flexible way to benefit from the explosive growth of AI. Our software allows partners to reach a much wider customer base with much better margins than conventional wholesale bare-metal contracts. We're inviting data center investors, regional partners and others with capacity or capital to contribute to join us in serving this demand – combining their assets and local strengths with Nebius's technology, platform, operational expertise and customer demand.”
Nebius anticipates pursuing a variety of economic arrangements under this partnership model, including revenue-sharing agreements, licensing fees and commissions, as well as committed capacity arrangements that would provide Nebius with access to additional compute to be sold to customers. The company has already entered into initial arrangements under this asset-light model.
As part of the partnership agreements, Nebius will equip partner teams to run the site and will remain responsible for the cloud software and service levels, while the partner manages the facility and hardware. Customers receive the same standard of service whether they run on Nebius’s own infrastructure or a partner’s.
Prospective partners can learn more at nebius.com/infrastructure-partners or contact [email protected].
About Nebius
Nebius, the AI cloud company, is building the full-stack platform for developers and companies to take charge of their AI future — from data and model training to production deployment. Founded on deep in-house technological expertise and operating at scale with a rapidly expanding global footprint, Nebius serves startups and enterprises building AI products, agents and services worldwide.
Nebius is listed on Nasdaq (Nasdaq: NBIS) and headquartered in Amsterdam.
For more information please visit www.nebius.com.
Media kit nebius.com/media-kit.
Disclaimer
Forward-looking statements
This press release contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, which involve risks and uncertainties. All statements contained in this press release other than statements of historical fact, including, without limitation, statements regarding our ability to enter into acceptable arrangements with partners, our ability to ensure the same standards of service across both partner and Nebius-owned facilities, our ability to sell this capacity through our global go-to-market organization, our forecast revenue from this service in 2026, our future financial and business performance, strategy, expected growth, planned investments and capital expenditures, capacity expansion plans, anticipated future financing transactions and expected financial results, are forward-looking statements. The words “anticipate,” “believe,” “continue,” “estimate,” “expect,” “guide,” “intend,” “likely,” “may,” “will” and similar expressions and their negatives are intended to identify forward-looking statements.
These forward-looking statements are subject to risks, uncertainties and assumptions, some of which are beyond our control. Actual results may differ materially from the results predicted or implied by such statements, and our reported results should not be considered as an indication of future performance. The potential risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ from the results predicted or implied by such statements include, among others, our ability to successfully identify appropriate partners; the ability of our identified partners to fully finance their infrastructure and to operate data centers that meet our requirements; market, macroeconomic and geopolitical conditions; competitive pressures; technological developments; our ability to secure and retain customers; our ability to secure additional capital to enable the growth of the business; unpredictable sales cycles; and potential pricing pressures; as well as those risks and uncertainties related to our continuing businesses included under the captions “Risk Factors” and “Operating and Financial Review and Prospects” in our Annual Report on Form 20-F for the year ended December 31, 2025, filed with the SEC on April 30, 2026, which is available on our investor relations website at https://nebius.com/investor-hub and on the SEC website at www.sec.gov.
All information in this press release is as of the date hereof (unless stated otherwise). Except as required by law, we undertake no obligation to update or revise publicly any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, after the date on which the statements are made or to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events.
In addition, statements that “we believe” and similar statements reflect our beliefs and opinions on the relevant subject. These statements are based upon information available to us as of the date hereof and, while we believe such information forms a reasonable basis for such statements, such information may be limited or incomplete, and our statements should not be read to indicate that we have conducted an exhaustive inquiry into, or review of, all potentially available relevant information. These statements are inherently uncertain, and investors are cautioned not to unduly rely upon these statements.
Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of NBIS either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.
Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of NBIS either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.
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Artificial intelligence stocks have spent much of this year whipsawing between optimism and doubt. Investors embraced companies building AI infrastructure, then abruptly questioned whether too much computing capacity was coming online too quickly.
That shift hit neocloud providers like CoreWeave (NASDAQ:CRWV), Nebius Group (NASDAQ:NBIS | NBIS Price Prediction), and IREN (NASDAQ:IREN) especially hard because their businesses depend on renting cutting-edge GPU clusters to AI developers. If hyperscalers ended up with excess capacity, the conventional wisdom believed specialized providers would lose their competitive edge.
But a new bottom-up model from Morgan Stanley suggests the market focused on the wrong risk. Instead of oversupply, the next several years may be defined by one of the largest infrastructure buildouts the technology industry has ever attempted.
The AI Buildout Is Only Accelerating The investment bank estimates total compute capacity across the five major hyperscalers will climb from 30.5 gigawatts in 2025 to 116.6 gigawatts by 2028. That is nearly a fourfold increase in only three years. Every one of those additional 80 gigawatts must be designed, financed, and constructed from scratch, translating into an estimated $4 trillion to $8 trillion of capital spending between now and 2028.
The Morgan Stanley analysis illustrates just how ambitious those plans are.
Company 2025 Compute Capacity 2028 Compute Capacity % Increase Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) 13.8 GW 35.8 GW 159% Google 5.0 GW 31.6 GW 532% Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) 7.5 GW 20.3 GW 171% Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META) 3.5 GW 21.2 GW 506% SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) 0.7 GW 7.8 GW 1,014% Hyperscaler Compute Capacity 30.5 GW 116.6 GW 282% Source: Morgan Stanley bottom-up hyperscaler compute model.
Those numbers destroy the excess compute bear narrative that crushed AI infrastructure stocks earlier this year. Demand doesn’t expand fourfold over three years if the industry is drowning in unused capacity.
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First-quarter revenue expanded 684% year over year, while management reiterated expectations for a $7 billion to $9 billion annualized revenue run rate by the end of the year. Longer term, the company has outlined a path toward $51 billion in annual revenue by 2030 based solely on the infrastructure it owns.
Today, that growth story became even more compelling. Nebius announced a new asset-light infrastructure partnership model in which third-party data center owners finance new facilities while Nebius contributes its AI cloud platform, customer relationships, and operating expertise.
The arrangement allows Nebius to expand into new regions without tying up billions of dollars on its balance sheet. Instead of funding every new data center itself, the company can generate recurring licensing fees and revenue-sharing income while partners supply the capital. That dramatically increases the pace at which Nebius can scale and gives management another growth lever beyond simply adding company-owned infrastructure.
Key Takeaway In short, the bear case against neocloud providers rested on two assumptions: AI demand would cool, and companies like Nebius would struggle to finance enough infrastructure to keep growing. Morgan Stanley’s compute model challenges the first assumption by projecting hyperscaler capacity to jump from 30.5 gigawatts to 116.6 gigawatts by 2028. Nebius’s new partnership model addresses the second by removing much of the capital burden associated with expansion.
Granted, execution risk remains, and Nebius still needs to deliver on its ambitious growth targets. But if Morgan Stanley’s projections prove accurate, the market’s 35% sell-off of Nebius stock increasingly looks like a reaction to a problem that never existed. For patient investors looking beyond the next quarter, that disconnect may be where the opportunity lies.
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The broader technology sector is currently navigating a sharp, liquidity-driven rotation. Recent macroeconomic shifts and tepid June payroll data have prompted institutional capital to lock in profits, triggering a broad sell-off across high-beta momentum equities.
SummaryNebius Group remains a strong buy, with a $333 price target for 2028 and 72% upside potential despite recent share price volatility.NBIS faces macro headwinds, elevated interest rates, and competitive risks from Meta's excess compute capacity, but robust AI infrastructure growth continues.Consensus expects Q2 revenues of $585.8 million (457% growth) and a $0.49 loss per share, as capacity expansion drives top-line acceleration.EBITDA margins are set to improve as NBIS scales, but high CapEx and reliance on capital raises and debt remain key watch items.Looking for more investing ideas like this one? Get them exclusively at The Aerospace Forum. Learn More » alexsl/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images
Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS) has significant growth prospects with its AI infrastructure build-out, and that is one of the reasons why I marked Nebius shares as a strong buy. Since then, the stock
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Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.
Key Takeaways NBIS targets at least 4 GW of contracted power in 2026 after expanding beyond 3.5 GW in the first quarter.Nebius broadened its AI platform with Aether 3.6 and acquisitions of Tavily, Eigen AI and Clarifai.NBIS raised 2026 capex to $20-$25B after securing more than $6B and ending with over $9B in cash. Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS - Free Report) is building an AI-native hyperscaler by executing across four strategic dimensions. It is expanding its capacity and scale, enhancing its products and functionality, growing its customer base and demand, and strengthening its capital position.
On the capacity front, Nebius is rapidly expanding its AI infrastructure. After increasing contracted power from more than 2 GW at the end of 2025 to over 3.5 GW in the first quarter of 2026, the company now targets at least 4 GW this year. It also announced a new Pennsylvania site that will support up to 1.2 GW of power, marking its second company-owned GW-scale AI campus in the United States.
Nebius is expanding beyond AI compute to build a fully integrated AI platform. With more than 75% of its contracted power now coming from company-owned infrastructure, it is strengthening its full-stack offering across the AI lifecycle, including bare-metal, multi-tenant cloud, inference and agentic AI services. The launch of Aether 3.6, along with the acquisitions of Tavily, Eigen AI, and Clarifai, further enhances its platform, particularly its AI inference optimization capabilities. Demand is the third growth pillar, led by its full-stack AI platform, which serves a diverse customer base across industries. First-quarter pipeline generation reached a record, growing 3.5x sequentially, while demand continues to outpace available GPU capacity, with new deployments fully committed.
To meet this strong demand and existing customer commitments, Nebius raised its 2026 capex guidance to $20-$25 billion, accelerating capacity that is expected to begin generating revenue in the first half of 2027. Capital is the fourth pillar of Nebius' growth strategy. To fund its rapid expansion of AI infrastructure, it raised more than $6 billion this year, including over $4 billion through convertible notes and $2 billion from NVIDIA's equity investment. As a result, Nebius ended the period with a cash balance exceeding $9 billion, providing ample financial flexibility to support its long-term growth plans.
Inside the Playbooks of NBIS’ Cut-Throat CompetitorsCoreWeave, Inc. (CRWV - Free Report) , like NBIS, highlighted four key themes– rising AI demand across hyperscalers and enterprises, a broader platform supporting training, inference, agentic AI workloads, rapid infrastructure expansion with more than 3.5 GW of contracted power and stronger financing that has secured more than $20 billion in debt and equity this year. AI workloads are shifting from training to inference and enterprise production, driving deeper commitments from existing customers while attracting new enterprise clients. This momentum fueled record backlog additions in the first quarter, with most of the new business expected to support its 2027 growth targets.
Microsoft (MSFT - Free Report) capitalizes on AI business momentum and Copilot adoption alongside Azure cloud infrastructure expansion. Its AI capabilities are translating into tangible commercial success, with Microsoft Copilot now deployed across more than 20 million paid Microsoft 365 Copilot seats and growing adoption across productivity, coding and security applications. MSFT’s business model spans multiple high-growth segments that collectively reduce concentration risk while providing numerous expansion vectors. Moreover, financial strength enables simultaneous investment in growth initiatives and substantial shareholder value return, with the company distributing $10.2 billion through dividends and share repurchases in the fiscal third quarter.
NBIS Price Performance, Valuation and EstimatesShares of Nebius have gained 151.5% year to date compared with the Internet – Software and Services industry’s growth of 15.2%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
In terms of price/book, NBIS’ shares are trading at 7.36X, higher than the Internet Software Services industry’s 3.97X.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NBIS’ earnings for 2026 has been revised significantly upward over the past 60 days.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
NBIS currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Image Credits:jmbatt / Getty Images Reflection AI, a U.S. startup vying to develop open models, has signed a $1 billion compute deal with European AI infrastructure company Nebius.
Nebius, formerly the international arm of Russian tech giant Yandex, will provide Reflection access to Nvidia’s latest chips. The deal comes just a few weeks after the startup signed a similar deal to access SpaceX’s computing resources, and mirrors several partnerships by AI firms as they race to secure compute for training and deploying their models.
Along with its increasingly capable Chinese counterparts, Reflection is one of several open-weight AI model developers that have received ample attention lately as debate rages over the value of top-shelf, closed-source AI models — especially with data retention concerns surging up, as well as government intervention.
Just last month, the Trump administration pressured Anthropic and OpenAI to restrict their most powerful new models, raising concerns that access to AI models could be taken away overnight. That, plus the release of more capable open models from China, has led to an increase in mainstream interest in open source AI.
Reflection, currently valued at $8 billion, was founded in 2024 by two former Google DeepMind researchers. It has already raised close to $2.6 billion in funding from backers including Nvidia, Sequoia Capital, and Lightspeed Venture Partners.
Shortly after securing a $2 billion investment from Nvidia, Nebius signed a five-year infrastructure deal with Meta worth up to $27 billion. Last year, Nebius signed a multi-year deal with Microsoft worth up to $19.4 billion.
TechCrunch has reached out to Reflection and Nebius for more information.
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Fed Chair Kevin Warsh wants to see inflation in the rearview mirror. He vowed to make elevated inflation a “thing of the past” and said the Fed is committed to getting policy right, while also pointing to the AI investment boom as a potential long-term tailwind for economic productivity and growth.
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Inflation is running cooler than expected, giving the Nasdaq a fresh tailwind. June CPI rose 3.5% from a year ago, below expectations for a 3.8% increase, as easing energy prices helped cool consumer prices last month.
Treasury yields fell across the curve, with the 10-year yield down 6 basis points to 4.553%. The 2-year yield, which is more tied to Fed policy expectations, dropped 8 basis points to 4.181%, while the 30-year yield slipped 3 basis points to 5.064%.
This article will be updated throughout the day, so check back often for more daily updates.
Technology stocks are in relief mode as softer inflation gave Nasdaq futures room to recover from yesterday’s chip-led sell-off. Nasdaq-100 futures jumped 1.3%, while S&P 500 futures rose 0.4%. Dow futures slipped 64 points, or 0.1%, as rising oil prices and a busy earnings calendar kept the broader market more cautious. A cooler June CPI reading than expected is helping to boost sentiment, offsetting interest rate worries for the moment and overshadowing a disappointing quarter from a tech stalwart.
The Nasdaq’s strength was led by a rebound in semiconductors after Monday’s sell-off. The VanEck Semiconductor ETF rose more than 2% in premarket trading, with Applied Materials (Nasdaq: AMAT) up more than 4% and Lam Research (Nasdaq: LRCX), STMicroelectronics (Nasdaq: STM), Teradyne (Nasdaq: TER), and Micron (Nasdaq: MU) all gaining more than 3%. IBM (NYSE: IBM) was the early weak spot, sliding nearly 21% after preliminary Q2 adjusted earnings of $2.93 per share missed the FactSet consensus of $3.01.
Financials were less helpful. JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM), Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC), Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), and Citigroup (NYSE: C) all traded lower after reporting Q2 results, while Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) bucked the trend with an earnings beat that pushed shares up more than 3%. The setup leaves today’s market split between two forces: cooler inflation helping tech and chips recover, while earnings and oil keep the broader tape from looking fully risk-on.
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Here’s a look at where things stand as of pre-morning trading:
Dow Futures: 52,678 Down 0.17%
Nasdaq Futures: 29,831 Up 1.21%
S&P Futures: 7,588 Up 0.33%
Market Movers IBM’s (Nasdaq: IBM) Q2 update fell short of the performance investors have come to expect. IBM shares fell 15% after prelim Q2 results showed revenue rising just 1% to $17.2 billion, with software growth offset by flat consulting and a 7% drop in infrastructure. Non-GAAP EPS rose 5% to $2.93, but the margin picture was mixed enough to knock the stock off its recent AI-infrastructure pedestal. IBM CEO Arvind Krishna conceded, “This quarter we faltered.”
KeyBanc gave the AI chip trade another shot of confidence. Analysts raised price targets across AMD (Nasdaq: AMD), Arm (Nasdaq; ARM), Marvell (Nasdaq: MRVL), Micron (Nasdaq: MU), and NVIDIA (Nasdaq: NVDA) after Asia supply-chain checks pointed to sustained data-center demand. The firm cited tight memory supply, stronger DRAM and NAND pricing, and ongoing AI infrastructure spending, keeping the Nasdaq’s chip leadership story front and center.
Nebius (Nasdaq: NBIS) added another long-term AI infrastructure win, agreeing to sell more than $1 billion in computing capacity to Reflection AI through 2029, according to Bloomberg. The deal keeps NBIS in the middle of the AI data-center trade, where demand for leased GPU capacity is still running ahead of supply.
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Branding for Nebius at the Nebius AI UK data centre, a new facility hosting NVIDIA and other computer firms, at Ark Data Centres, in Chertsey, Britain, November 6, 2025. REUTERS/Toby Melville Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab
July 14 (Reuters) - AI startup Reflection said on Tuesday it has signed a more than $1 billion deal to secure computing capacity from Nebius (NBIS.O), opens new tab, including access to Nvidia's latest chips.
The move builds on Reflection's June agreement with SpaceX for computing capacity, a deal that media reports said would see the startup pay about $150 million a month through 2029.
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AI startups are racing to lock in the computing power needed to train and run their models as demand growth from businesses adopting the technology outpaces new data-center supply.
Reflection, launched by two former Google DeepMind researchers, develops open-source models that serve as an alternative to the offerings from OpenAI and Anthropic.
Open-source models, typically easier to customize and cheaper to run than closed-weight rivals, have drawn growing interest as rising AI bills push businesses to cut costs. Last month's U.S. curbs on Anthropic's advanced models also exposed the risks of relying on providers that can be cut off overnight.
"The need for open models is clear, and this additional compute capacity will allow Reflection to continue to build and train frontier AI models at scale," said Reflection's chief technology officer and co-founder, Ioannis Antonoglou.
Reporting by Aditya Soni in Bengaluru; Editing by Shilpi Majumdar
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles., opens new tab
Nebius Group N.V. is positioned as a vertically integrated, AI-native cloud platform, leveraging Cloud 3.6 to drive customer acquisition and retention. Cloud 3.6 introduces Echo, an AI DevOps agent, and deeper SkyPilot integration, reducing operational friction and enabling rapid, cost-efficient AI workload deployment. NBIS targets enterprise adoption with enhanced governance, security, and performance features, aiming to differentiate from hyperscalers and support regulated industries.
Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of NBIS either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.
Chip stocks have had a blistering rally over the past year as investors bet on the semiconductor sector's central role in the global AI infrastructure buildout.
But renewed volatility around chip stocks has sparked a debate if this is a sign of broader concern about AI demand.
In interviews with CNBC this week, several AI executives poured cold water over the idea that demand is slowing, even as they acknowledged that businesses are being more cautious on the cost of using AI.
"I somewhat think of AI demand as almost unlimited," Pat Gelsinger, the former Intel CEO and now general partner at Playground Global, told CNBC on Wednesday, adding that energy availability is "the only real limiter."
"Because how much economic value do you get for increased intelligence? Almost infinite across every industry imaginable," Gelsinger added.
watch now
Data center, chip player report supply constraintsA number of factors have stoked volatility in markets around chip and AI data center-related stocks. An announcement from Meta that it will sell its excess AI computing capacity was in part a contributor to the sell-off. While Meta's stock popped on the news, it raised questions over whether this was a sign that there was broader overcapacity of compute out there. Elon Musk's xAI also rented its excess capacity out this year.
And this week, Samsung, one of the world's biggest memory chip companies, forecast a gigantic rise in profit, but its stock fell. After a more than 360% rally in its shares over the last 12 months, the market questioned how much further it could go.
None of these moves appears to have dampened demand for compute and the infrastructure behind it.
"What we're experiencing in terms of demand is extraordinary. There's much more demand than we're able to fulfil, and that's been our experience for some time now," Marc Boroditsky, chief revenue officer at Nebius, told CNBC on Thursday. Nebius is building data centers using Nvidia's GPUs.
watch now
Andrew Feldman, CEO of Cerebras Systems, said the example of Meta and xAI selling its excess capacity is a "unique" case.
"For the industry as a whole, the demand for compute far outstrips available capacity, and we're short on data centers. I think we're short on, as an industry, many of the inputs to compute," Feldman told CNBC on Wednesday.
Cerebras, which went public earlier this year, is one of a slew of semiconductor startups attempting to become major players in the data center market and challenge Nvidia.
Rebellions, another chip startup from South Korea, which is backed by Samsung and SK Hynix, reported seeing similar ample demand.
"AI infrastructure momentum [is] still huge," Sungyun Park, CEO of Rebellions, told CNBC on Wednesday.
"I personally believe it's not the signal saying that … all the hyperscalers [are overinvesting] in the infrastructure," Park added in reference to the Meta and xAI news.
watch now
Lumentum, which sells photonics and optical products for connectivity in the data center, said its products are sold out for the next five years.
"We're trying to build up our capacity as much as we possibly can to fulfil a demand that we see out five years at this point," Michael Hurlston, CEO of Lumentum, told CNBC on Wednesday.
Lumentum's stock is up around 600% over the last 12 months as investors pile into companies addressing key bottlenecks in the buildout of AI data centers.
Enterprise spending to 'rationalize'Another big debate around the AI trade is how much enterprises are willing to pay for the technology.
There has been a period of so-called 'tokenmaxxing' at enterprises where companies would encourage employees to use as much AI as possible no matter the result. The tools often used were those from frontier labs like OpenAI and Anthropic.
But companies are now focusing more on the return on investment from AI, especially as those frontier models remain expensive relative to open source offerings from companies like DeepSeek or Alibaba.
Nebius' Boroditsky said that tokenmaxxing is only worthwhile if an organization is seeing a return on investment as a result.
"The CFO bringing the hammer down and slowing spend should actually be looking for value or valuemaxxing," Boroditsky said, adding that AI should be applied to create value that justifies the spending.
"We're seeing a shift now to more rationalization. We've seen it with every tech cycle, and that rationalization will definitely continue the demand," Nebius' Boroditsky said.
watch now
While frontier AI models are seen as the most advanced, there are a plethora of open source models that are close in performance and some that are less advanced. Different models have different capabilities, which can be used for specific tasks.
Cerebras' Feldman said that in the future, certain models will be used in specific situations. For example, frontier models can be used for more advanced problems, while some workloads will shift to others.
"I think it's probably the case that you don't need a giant bus to go to the grocery store," Feldman said.
"Certain workloads migrate to some type of compute and easier workloads to others, and I think as we learn and become more sophisticated in our deployment of AI, the same thing will happen."
Shares of European AI neocloud Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS +1.60%) rallied 229.9% in the first half of 2026, according to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence.
It was a stellar first half of the year for most hardware and semiconductor stocks involved with artificial intelligence build-out. However, Nebius outperformed all of the other AI "neoclouds" due to its strong execution, large contract wins, and new AI-related acquisitions.
Oh, and the investment by Nvidia (NVDA +3.90%) in the company didn't hurt either.
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Nebius lands big contracts, impressing Wall Street Nebius has transformed into an AI neocloud over the past few years. Given that we are in the relatively early stages of the AI era, these stocks tend to react to large contract wins, as such deals help "de-risk" their current infrastructure build-out.
Nebius landed a few such deals during the first half. In January, the company was selected by the Israel Innovation Authority to build out the country's national supercomputer. Israel is perhaps the most technologically advanced place in the world outside of Silicon Valley and China. Hence, Nebius's winning the contract through a competitive bidding process is a strong endorsement.
Nebius also won a monster $27 billion, multi-year contract from Meta Platforms (META +6.16%) in March. Meta was already a Nebius customer, although on a much smaller scale. However, the five-year compute deal beginning in 2027 is significantly larger, and the news helped catapult Nebius' shares higher.
Nebius also received accolades on the investment side, as Nvidia (NVDA +3.90%) agreed to invest $2 billion into the company. As part of the deal, Nebius will gain early access to the latest Nvidia architectures, and Nvidia will help Nebius deploy five gigawatts of Nvidia-based capacity by 2030.
Nvidia had already invested the same amount on similar terms in Nebius rival CoreWeave (CRWV 0.87%) in January, so Nebius "evened the score" in a sense by landing this deal. Furthermore, Nvidia's backing seemed to increase the probability that Nvidia would help Nebius find customers and raise capital. The expanded Meta Platforms deal actually occurred just after the Nvidia announcement, so the Nvidia commitment to Nebius may have been a catalyst.
These big deals paved the way for Nebius's blowout earnings report in mid-May. In its first quarter, revenue surged 684% year over year, trouncing expectations. At the same time, the company's adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) flipped from a $54 million loss to a $130 million profit.
Not only did the quarter's results impress, but CEO Arkady Volozh also noted that demand for compute was still vastly outstripping supply, suggesting strong results ahead. That dovetails with research firm SemiAnalysis's April data, which showed older Nvidia H100 rental pricing had increased by some 40% in March compared with October.
A major fear for neocloud companies like Nebius is that older GPUs will depreciate and lose value as newer chips enter the market. So, the fact that older GPUs' rental prices were not only not decreasing but actually increasing is a strong sign that older GPUs hold their value. A longer useful life for each Nvidia chip thereby increases the value Nebius and other neoclouds will reap from their massive current investments, and therefore the value of their stocks.
Image source: Getty Images.
Nebius looks frothy, but not on 2027 estimates After its first-half run, Nebius trades at a frothy-looking 16.4 times this year's average revenue estimate; however, that price-to-sales ratio compresses to just five times the average 2027 revenue estimate for the company, and just three times the most optimistic analysts' estimate.
That's actually a very reasonable valuation, although it implies a more-than-tripling of revenue next year, even in the average estimate. Therefore, investors need to hope Nebius's revenue trajectory continues on its hockey-stick like path, and that it can sell its compute profitably. Recent results and GPU rental pricing appear encouraging on that front; however, if the AI demand story changes in any material way, Nebius' current high valuation could cause the stock to experience a significant pullback.
A July 6, 2026 SEC filing shows TTRF Capital Ltd established a new Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS 4.13%) position estimated at $64.0 million using quarterly average pricing.
What happenedAccording to an SEC filing reported on July 6, 2026, the firm initiated its stake in the AI infrastructure provider. This entry into Nebius Group followed the company's rebranding from Yandex N.V. in August 2024. The stake's valuation reached $89.2 million by quarter-end. Separately, the firm reported 13 total equity positions in the quarter.
What else to knowThe July 6, 2026 filing confirms a new position for the firm, representing 58.8% of reported 13F assets.Top five holdings as of the filing date:Nebius Group (NBIS 4.13%): $89.2 million (58.8% of AUM)Palantir Technologies (PLTR +3.44%): $20.0 million (13.2% of AUM)AST SpaceMobile (ASTS 4.45%): $7.8 million (5.1% of AUM)SoFi Technologies (SOFI 2.15%): $7.7 million (5.1% of AUM)Meta Platforms (META +1.30%): $7.5 million (4.9% of AUM)Nebius Group has outperformed the S&P 500 index by about 300 percentage points over the past year.Company OverviewMetricValueShare Price (as of market close 2026-07-06)$215.08Market Capitalization$51.75 billionOne Year Total Return328.0%Employees1,371Company SnapshotNebius Group operates a comprehensive AI infrastructure platform that provides GPU computing clusters, cloud services, and developer tools to support demanding artificial intelligence workloads globally.The company generates revenue from its diversified portfolio, including Nebius (an AI cloud platform), Toloka AI (data solutions for generative AI development), TripleTen (technology education), and Avride (autonomous driving technologies).The company serves enterprise customers, AI developers, technology learners, and autonomous vehicle manufacturers seeking scalable infrastructure and specialized services within the artificial intelligence ecosystem.Nebius Group is a technology infrastructure company headquartered in Amsterdam with 1,371 employees and a market capitalization of $51.75 billion as of July 6, 2026. The company has established itself as a critical infrastructure provider for the global AI industry, leveraging its diversified business segments to address multiple facets of AI development and deployment. With operations spanning Europe, North America, and Israel, Nebius maintains a strategic focus on providing essential computational resources and specialized services that support the accelerating adoption of artificial intelligence technologies across enterprise and consumer applications.
What this transaction means for investorsTTRF Capital is a young firm running a concentrated portfolio heavy on technology-related names. Nebius appears to be the firm’s highest-conviction stock, with the only other pure-play AI cloud infrastructure supplier being Iren Ltd. (IREN 5.72%) Iren isn’t among its top five holdings, however.
Most investors should work to build a more diversified portfolio, including stocks beyond the technology sector. However, owning Nebius in the higher-risk, technology portion of any portfolio may make sense for those with the proper risk tolerance.
Nebius’ services are in high demand for their GPU capacity, and even AI-leader Nvidia (NVDA +0.90%) owned nearly 1.2 million Nebius shares as of March 31.
Investors should be aware that the market has already built significant potential business into Nebius’ valuation. Its $50 billion market cap is lofty even given the company’s projection of revenue at an annual run rate of $7 billion to $9 billion entering 2027. Positions should be allocated accordingly, and potential volatility should be considered as the company works to manage its fast-growing sales base.
Howard Smith has positions in Nvidia. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends AST SpaceMobile, Meta Platforms, Nvidia, and Palantir Technologies. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Nebius customers can deploy Saturn Cloud's managed fine-tuning, model serving, and per-token billing directly on Nebius AI Cloud, an NVIDIA Cloud Partner.
, /PRNewswire/ -- Saturn Cloud, the AI token factory platform, today announced that its platform is now available for self-service deployment in the Nebius marketplace. Nebius customers can stand up Saturn Cloud on Nebius's NVIDIA infrastructure without manual integration.
The marketplace listing builds on an existing integration between the two companies, turning a setup that operators and teams previously handled themselves into a deployment they can run from the marketplace.
Nebius AI Cloud is a full-stack AI cloud built on the NVIDIA DSX Platform running NVIDIA Hopper and NVIDIA Blackwell GPUs. As an NVIDIA Exemplar Cloud, its infrastructure is validated against NVIDIA reference architectures and benchmarks, giving Saturn Cloud customers access to large-scale GPU capacity across Nebius regions in the US and Europe.
"Operators and AI teams want to get from infrastructure to a working model endpoint without building plumbing first," said Sebastian Metti, Founder, Saturn Cloud. "Self-service deployment in the Nebius marketplace means a Nebius customer can stand up Saturn Cloud on NVIDIA AI infrastructure, fine-tune a model, and serve it with per-token billing, in a few steps rather than a procurement cycle."
What Customers Get
Once deployed from the Nebius marketplace, Saturn Cloud runs on Nebius AI Cloud, adding its managed workflow layer for teams that standardized on Saturn Cloud. Customers get managed fine-tuning on open models (full-weight and LoRA), OpenAI-compatible inference endpoints with auto-scaling, per-token usage metering and billing, distributed multi-GPU training with orchestration and logging, and enterprise security including SSO, RBAC, and SOC 2 compliance.
Engineers run the full workflow on Nebius's NVIDIA AI infrastructure: upload a dataset, fine-tune a model, deploy it to an inference endpoint, and put it into production.
"Customers come to Nebius to go from training to production, and we want platforms helping them get there faster," said Laurelle Roseman, VP of Global Partnerships, Nebius. "Making Saturn Cloud available via self-service in our marketplace is exactly that: a validated platform that customers can deploy in a few steps. It's the kind of self-service marketplace motion we want more of on Nebius."
Availability
Saturn Cloud is available for self-service deployment in the Nebius marketplace today.
About Saturn Cloud
Saturn Cloud is the AI token factory platform for neoclouds, AI Factory operators, and enterprises. It turns GPU infrastructure into managed services for fine-tuning, model serving, and per-token billing, with OpenAI-compatible inference endpoints, distributed training, and managed environments. Enterprise security and governance are built in, across public, private, and on-premises environments. Learn more at saturncloud.io.
About Nebius
Nebius, the AI cloud company, is building a full-stack platform that enables developers and companies to take charge of their AI future – from data and model training to production deployment. Founded on deep in-house technological expertise and operating at scale with a rapidly expanding global footprint, Nebius serves startups and enterprises building AI products, agents, and services worldwide.
Nebius is listed on Nasdaq (NASDAQ: NBIS) and headquartered in Amsterdam.
For more information, please visit www.nebius.com.
Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.
SummaryMeta Compute triggered a sharp valuation reset despite Nebius reiterating 3.5GW contracted power, a 4GW target, and continued supply-constrained demand.Management maintained its $7-9 billion ARR target while customers continue competing for GPUs, extending contracts, and increasing prepayments despite higher pricing.Historical valuation compressed from 11-14x forward ARR to roughly 8x, creating a disconnect despite more than $46 billion of hyperscaler commitments.I estimate a base-case fair value of approximately $300 by year-end, with upside to $375 if execution and additional commercial wins materialize. Sashkinw/iStock via Getty Images
My positive outlook on Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS) has never been based on the expectation that the hyperscalers would stay as permanent customers with no intentions to compete. Quite the contrary, I always thought that
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Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of NBIS either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.
Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of NBIS either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.
Growth for artificial intelligence (AI) cloud infrastructure company Nebius Group (NBIS 6.09%) has exploded over the last year, and investors have poured into the stock. A nearly 20% surge in shares in June reversed course in July, though, and investors should continue to expect volatility of this kind.
Nebius stock jumped 19.5% in June, according to data provided by S&P Global Market Intelligence. But it crashed nearly the same amount in the first trading week of July. Here's what investors need to know, and what they should expect ahead.
Image source: Nebius Group.
Building out capacity Investors have been attracted to Nebius stock in droves because of its spectacular growth rates. In its May earnings report, the company said it was again raising its guidance for contracted power capacity to support its data centers, which provide cloud computing infrastructure for AI model development and growth.
That guidance has soared since last August, from at least 1 gigawatt (GW) to over 4 GW. In May, Nebius said it has already secured as much as 1.2 GW of power and land for an AI factory at a new site in Pennsylvania.
Investors continued to boost Nebius stock when it announced it would also partner with fuel cell maker Bloom Energy to install additional power capacity for its data center build-out.
What to make of Nebius stock Revenue has grown stunningly alongside Nebius' data center expansion.
From sales of just $105 million in Q2 a year ago, the company reached an annual revenue run rate of $1.25 billion by the fourth quarter. That remarkable growth rate continues to accelerate. Management now anticipates exceeding $3 billion in revenue for 2026, concluding the year at a rate that could more than double once again in 2027.
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But the stock movement has also anticipated that growth, with shares rising more than 150% year to date and more than quadrupling over the last 12 months. It has reached a market cap of about $55 billion, which puts it at a lofty valuation even for its expected 2027 sales.
While demand is extremely strong, competitors like CoreWeave are also in the space. Any sign of a slowdown in spending for cloud capacity will likely hit shares of companies like Nebius and CoreWeave disproportionately compared to the tech sector as a whole.
That makes it a good candidate for investing over time. Long-term investors can purchase more as the stock corrects along the way. There's a good chance that better opportunities will come with the volatility.
Howard Smith has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Bloom Energy. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
AMSTERDAM--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Nebius, the AI cloud company, today announced the winners of the AI Discovery Awards, its annual showcase of leading startups that are using AI to deliver advances in healthcare and life sciences.
The 2026 program added Medical Devices and Medical Imaging to the existing BioPharma, Genomics, and Digital Health tracks, reflecting the growing role of AI in connected medical equipment and diagnostic imaging, where inference-intensive workloads are beginning to reshape clinical practice.
Nebius congratulates the following winners in each category:
Place
Biopharma
Digital Health
Genomics
Medical Devices
Medical Imaging
1st
Phylo
Corti.ai
Omniscope
Real Time Imaging Systems
Nucleo Research
2nd
Virgo
VitVio
Twig Bio
BAIBYS™Fertility
Subtle Medical
3rd
Decoy Therapeutics
EverEx
DELFI Diagnostics
Fluent
Hertility Health
Dr. Ilya Burkov, Global Head of Healthcare & Life Sciences at Nebius, said:
“Our winners – and indeed all of the 647 submissions we reviewed – reflect how rapidly AI is changing the pace of healthcare research. Across all categories, startups are compressing timelines that once took years into months or even weeks, and bringing capabilities to clinical and laboratory settings that simply did not exist before. The AI Discovery Awards exist to accelerate that momentum, and to connect the most promising teams with the compute resources, investor networks, and mentorship they need to move from promising research to bringing products to market.”
Alongside the awards program, Nebius previewed the Nebius Scientific AI and Healthcare Platform, AI infrastructure built to meet the specialist needs of healthcare and life sciences organizations. Developed in collaboration with teams from across biotech, pharma, digital health, academia, and research institutions, the Nebius Scientific AI and Healthcare Platform is built around two primary use cases: private model hosting gives biotech and pharmaceutical organizations the ability to securely host proprietary models without dedicated GPU overhead; while “Bring your Own Job” supports the custom, reproducible scientific workflows that researchers prefer over standard inference endpoints.
Now in their second year, the AI Discovery Awards are a core part of Nebius’s broader commitment to supporting startups and enterprises developing AI applications in healthcare and life sciences. Previous winners have included Transcripta Bio, Slingshot AI, Converge Bio and Prima Mente. This year’s awards ceremony was held at Town Hall by Bottaccio, London.
The 2026 AI Discovery Awards were open to companies from pre-seed through to Series D that put AI and machine learning at the core of their product. Category winners were selected from 647 applications received from around the world by an independent panel of 28 judges representing leading pharmaceutical companies, academic institutions, and venture capital firms. Submissions were evaluated based on the use of AI within the product, use of compute, technical innovation, functionality and advantages, performance and efficiency, global impact, and market potential and business sustainability.
Category winners each received $100,000 in compute and inference credits, with second and third place receiving $50,000 and $30,000, respectively, in compute credits.
In addition, Regional Trailblazer awards recognizing exceptional companies advancing AI in healthcare and life sciences around the globe were awarded for the first time. Winners each received $30,000 in compute credits: Check Me (Africa), Hummingbird Bioscience (APAC), Owkin (EMEA), Arkangel AI (Latin America), and Xaira Therapeutics (North America).
A full list of shortlisted companies, as well as qualification criteria and a jury list, can be found on Nebius’s website at: https://nebius.com/ai-discovery-award.
About Nebius
Nebius, the AI cloud company, is building the full-stack platform for developers and companies to take charge of their AI future — from data and model training to production deployment. Founded on deep in-house technological expertise and operating at scale with a rapidly expanding global footprint, Nebius serves startups and enterprises building AI products, agents, and services worldwide.
Nebius is listed on Nasdaq (Nasdaq: NBIS) and headquartered in Amsterdam.
For more information please visit www.nebius.com.
Media kit nebius.com/media-kit.
Disclaimer
Forward-looking statements
This press release contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, which involve risks and uncertainties. All statements contained in this press release other than statements of historical fact, including, without limitation, statements regarding our future financial and business performance, strategy, expected growth, planned investments and capital expenditures, capacity expansion plans, anticipated future financing transactions and expected financial results, are forward-looking statements. The words "anticipate," "believe," "continue," "estimate," "expect," "guide," "intend," "likely," "may," "will" and similar expressions and their negatives are intended to identify forward-looking statements.
These forward-looking statements are subject to risks, uncertainties and assumptions, some of which are beyond our control. Actual results may differ materially from the results predicted or implied by such statements, and our reported results should not be considered as an indication of future performance. The potential risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ from the results predicted or implied by such statements include, among others: market, macroeconomic and geopolitical conditions; our ability to build, operate and manage our businesses to the desired scale; competitive pressures; technological developments; our ability to secure and retain clients; our ability to secure additional capital to enable the growth of the business; unpredictable sales cycles; and potential pricing pressures; as well as those risks and uncertainties related to our continuing businesses included under the captions "Risk Factors" and "Operating and Financial Review and Prospects" in our Annual Report on Form 20-F for the year ended December 31, 2025, filed with the SEC on April 30, 2026, which is available on our investor relations website at https://nebius.com/investor-hub and on the SEC website at www.sec.gov.
All information in this press release is as of the date hereof (unless stated otherwise). Except as required by law, we undertake no obligation to update or revise publicly any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, after the date on which the statements are made or to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events.
In addition, statements that "we believe" and similar statements reflect our beliefs and opinions on the relevant subject. These statements are based upon information available to us as of the date hereof and, while we believe such information forms a reasonable basis for such statements, such information may be limited or incomplete, and our statements should not be read to indicate that we have conducted an exhaustive inquiry into, or review of, all potentially available relevant information. These statements are inherently uncertain, and investors are cautioned not to unduly rely upon these statements.
Shares of Nebius Group (NASDAQ:NBIS | NBIS Price Prediction) closed down 17% Wednesday. The move cracks a narrative that just weeks ago had retail investors trading millionaire screenshots on Reddit. The neocloud trade, the idea that AI-first cloud upstarts can borrow their way to hyperscaler status, is running into the arithmetic of how much debt these companies actually owe. Nebius alone now carries $15.061 billion in total liabilities, up 1,040.07% year over year. If AI compute demand slips even slightly behind that debt curve, today’s drop starts to look like a preview.
The number that stopped the party Nebius closed Tuesday at $276.17. By early Wednesday afternoon the stock changed hands at $237.02, a one-day move of -14.18% and has closed at -17%. That comes after a run that pushed shares up 399.13% over the past year and 229.93% year-to-date, so anyone who bought near the highs is now underwater on a fast-moving story.
Retail was leaning in hard. Reddit sentiment on r/wallstreetbets hit a very bullish 95 on June 19, driven by a post titled “I was the first to post about them here when they got relisted, in 2 years they made me a millionaire. Thanks Nebius.” Four days later a different post was climbing the boards. Its title was “I’m kinda sweating.” Between those two moments, nothing about the business changed. Only the price did.
The balance sheet doing the heavy work Under the euphoria sits a set of numbers most retail buyers never see. Total convertible debt principal at Nebius sits at $10.04 billion, and it accretes to 120% of original principal at maturity. In March, the company added $4.34 billion more in convertible notes maturing in 2031 and 2033. Interest expense went from essentially nothing to $63.7 million in a single quarter.
Then there is what has not shown up yet. Nebius has roughly $9.9 billion in future data center lease obligations that have not commenced, with 11-year average terms starting in 2026 and 2027. It signed a Bloom Energy fuel cell agreement for up to $2.6 billion in aggregate service fees over 10-year terms. Q1 2026 capex alone was $2.473 billion, which exceeded operating cash flow for the quarter.
Revenue that quarter came in at $399.00 million and missed consensus by 32.74%. GAAP profit of $621.20 million looked flattering, but that number was pushed up by a $780.60 million non-cash gain from revaluing ClickHouse. Strip it out and the adjusted net loss widened 20% year over year to $100.30 million.
Act now: the analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks — and Nebius Group didn't make the cut. Grab the names FREE today.
The bull case, stress-tested Give the bulls their turn. Nebius AI Cloud revenue grew 841% year over year, cost of revenue dropped from 49% to 26% of sales, and remaining performance obligations sit at $33.59 billion. Behind the company sit a $27 billion five-year Meta agreement and a $2 billion NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) pre-funded warrant investment. Guidance calls for FY 2026 revenue of $3 billion to $3.4 billion and ARR of $7 billion to $9 billion by year-end.
The problem is timing. Full-year 2026 capex commitments run $16 billion to $20 billion, against that same ARR range. Data center construction faces real bottlenecks, with PJM Interconnection’s independent market monitor concluding that data center load growth is the primary reason for tight capacity and high prices in the mid-Atlantic. Power, permitting, and grid interconnection queues are constraints Nebius cannot financially engineer around. The debt clock starts ticking whether the megawatts arrive on schedule or not.
CoreWeave (NASDAQ:CRWV) is running the same play at larger scale, and its chart tells its own story. CoreWeave shares are down 14%, despite Q1 2026 revenue of $2.078 billion and a revenue backlog of $99.4 billion. Total liabilities sit at $50.814 billion against shareholders’ equity of $4.759 billion. Interest expense in a single quarter hit $536 million. That is the neocloud template. Book a giant backlog, borrow against it, and hope compute demand keeps outrunning the debt curve.
Bottom line for long-term holders The AI demand story is real and Nebius is a legitimate operator. Still, the stock trades at a trailing P/E of 83x, with negative EBITDA of $38.6 million. The average analyst target sits at $244.07, only fractionally above Wednesday’s price. The forward marker is execution against that $7 billion to $9 billion ARR target with 800 MW to 1 GW of connected power by year-end. Miss either, and the debt schedule keeps its own time.
For retirement-focused holders the question is simpler than the balance sheet. Do you believe AI compute demand will keep compounding faster than $15 billion in liabilities? If the answer wobbles, today’s drop is a warning, not a discount.
Act now: the analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks — and Nebius Group didn't make the cut. Grab the names FREE today.
Nasdaq-100 inclusion triggered passive ETF inflows from over $200 billion in benchmarked assets. Meta's cloud compute expansion signals over $100 billion in annual AI capex, reinforcing sustained GPU overbuild rather than demand saturation. Meta's $27 billion framework reinforces the overbuild cycle, signaling persistent AI compute scarcity globally.
