Nebius just auctioned its first Blackwell capacity above any price it has ever charged, and management says it could sell all of 2027 right now but is choosing not to. Whether that restraint makes the stock a buy at these…
At its current $243.88 share price, Nebius Group (NASDAQ:NBIS | NBIS Price Prediction) looks compelling for investors focused on the next leg of AI compute pricing power. Shares have run hard, but management’s most recent disclosures suggest the pricing story is only beginning to inflect.
Nebius operates a full-stack AI cloud platform spanning compute, storage, managed services, and inference, with its Token Factory targeting open-model deployment. NVIDIA‘s (NASDAQ:NVDA) strategic equity investment and Exemplar Cloud designation place Nebius inside the reference architecture for Blackwell and Vera Rubin builds, alongside anchor contracts with Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META) and Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT). The stock has climbed from $88.62 at the February 2026 filing to today’s level as capacity milestones and record run-rate revenue have landed in sequence.
Why Full-Capacity Pricing Is the Real Story The Q2 earnings call reframed the thesis. CEO Arkady Volozh said Nebius “could sell today our entire 2027 capacity on these terms if we wanted to”, but is deliberately holding capacity back for premium short-duration deals. Its first Blackwell capacity auction cleared 15% above the highest price the company had ever charged, and short-duration contracts are being negotiated at $40 million to $50 million per megawatt versus $20 million to $25 million on mid-term deals.
Q2 revenue reached $582.3M, up 454% YoY, with group adjusted EBITDA of $236 million at a 41% margin. Management raised contracted power to 5 gigawatts by year-end, RPO stands at $37.5B, and ARR guidance of $7B to $9B by year-end 2026 was reaffirmed. Four landmark Q2 deals averaged more than a billion dollars each.
Where the Bear Argument Bites Hardest The build is capital-intensive at unprecedented scale. FY 2026 capex guidance sits at $20 billion to $25 billion, and Q2 interest expense surged to $95 million from roughly $4.8 million a year prior. Convertible debt carries $8.5B at cost but $20.8B in fair value, embedding real dilution risk. The ATM program placed 12.7 million Class A shares at an average of $224, with 12.3 million shares still authorized.
Three customers accounted for 24%, 21%, and 14% of Q2 revenue. GAAP net loss came in at $190.4M despite the EBITDA inflection, and revenue missed consensus in three of the four quarters preceding the Q2 beat. FY 2026 EPS consensus has been cut to -$2.5183 from -$1.6233 ninety days ago.
Reasons Some Investors Would Rather Sit Tight NBIS is up 191.36% YTD versus 12.32% for the S&P 500, and trades at roughly 45x forward earnings and 45x trailing sales. Much of the ARR ramp, 5 GW power target, and 40% EBITDA margin outlook is arguably discounted at these levels. Execution on Pennsylvania (1.2 GW), Finland (310MW), and Missouri (1.2 GW) sites still has to land on schedule, and every one of those gigawatts has to be powered and cooled by somebody (we rounded up seven suppliers doing exactly that work in a free AI infrastructure report).
Patient investors could wait for Q3 revenue to validate the $906.6M consensus and Q4 to test the ARR range. Cost of patience is real if auction pricing keeps climbing, and so is the cost of adding at fresh 52-week highs.
What the Data Actually Says Nebius trades at $243.88 with a market cap near $61.5B and forward P/E near 45. The 4-analyst mean target of $286.69 sits above the current share price, though price targets are one data point and not a guarantee. The ratings breakdown:
Strong Buy: 1 Buy: 2 Hold: 1 Sell: 0 Recent performance separates NBIS from the market: up 22.22% in one week, 29.74% over one month, 191.36% YTD, and 280.71% over one year. SPY returned 0.55% for the week, -0.94% over one month, and 12.32% YTD. FY 2026 revenue consensus sits at $3.34B across 17 analysts, rising to roughly $11.97B for FY 2027.
Verdict on Nebius at Current Levels At $243.88, the setup for Nebius Group looks constructive. Here is why.
Q2’s pricing signal is the pivotal development. When a supplier can auction Blackwell capacity 15% above its prior high and command $40 million to $50 million per megawatt on short-duration deals, ARR guidance of $7B to $9B reads as a floor built on mid-term contracted pricing that management is deliberately leaving room to exceed.
Three near-term catalysts drive the path higher: Q3 and Q4 2026 results validating ARR against the $906.6M and $1.45B consensus prints, an initial 2027 revenue guide from management, and additional asset-backed debt at SOFR plus 250 basis points that eases reliance on dilutive equity. The July $775M facility is the template. Scaling it makes the convertible overhang more manageable.
Risk/reward at $243.88 demands careful sizing after a 191% YTD run. The thesis breaks if Q3 revenue misses the $906.6M bar, if the 5 GW power target slips, or if auction pricing rolls over. Short of those signals, the setup favors owning the operator that keeps proving pricing power in a supply-constrained market.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Nebius targets $3.0-$3.4 billion 2026 revenue and a $7-$9 billion exit run rate as AI capacity expands. Connected power could reach 800 MW-1 GW by year-end, while contracted power targets have increased substantially to 5 GW. Customer prepayments may exceed $9 billion in 2026, with recent contracts covering roughly 50%-60% of associated infrastructure CapEx.
Buy NBIS. The Palantir “preferred sovereign AI infrastructure” deal is a credibility shock that should pull in more enterprise workloads, and management is already capacity-constrained (sold out for the year, selling 2027 capacity). The chart confirms trend strength (above the 50-day MA, inverted head-and-shoulders) with a clear path: reclaim/hold $250, then push toward $300 and $312 if resistance breaks.
Key Risk: Palantir’s partnership doesn’t translate into incremental revenue fast enough, and the stock sells off on dilution/cash burn fears.
CoreWeave (CLOV) / IREN (IREN) neocloud sympathy
Buy CLOV and IREN as a basket. Nebius is moving with the same “neocloud” tape (CoreWeave and IREN cited as mirroring performance). If Palantir is standardizing sovereign AI infrastructure, the second-order effect is more procurement across the whole GPU cloud peer group, lifting sentiment and order flow beyond just Nebius.
Key Risk: The move is purely Nebius-specific (no broader customer shift), and the market rotates out of neoclouds after the initial headline fades.
Nebius stock surged by over 10% today, September 8, continuing a recovery that started on Tuesday last week when it bottomed at $194.76. It jumped to a high of $250, its highest level since August 18 this year, mirroring the performance of other neocloud companies like CoreWeave and IREN.
NBIS stock went parabolic after the company announced a major partnership with Palantir, one of the biggest software players in the industry.
In a statement, Palantir said that it will use Nebius as its preferred sovereign AI infrastructure partner. As part of this deal, Palantir will bring Nebius compute and inference endpoints inside Palantir enterprise perimeter.
This means that Palantir customers will have access to Nebius’s cloud and inference infrastructure. Alex Karp, Palantir’s CEO, said:
“Nebius’ compute infrastructure powers your ability to run your own AI models under conditions you control. Our ontology and their infrastructure will undergird the sovereignty our partners are demanding.”
Palantir joins a long list of customers who are using Nebius services. Some of the most notable ones are Microsoft, Meta Platforms, Cloudflare, and Revolut. Its demand is so high such that the management insisted that it was fully sold out for the year, and that it was in a position to sell its 2027 capacity today.
READ MORE: Michael Burry shorts Nebius stock: Is it a buy or sell before earnings?
The most recent results showed that Nebius Group’s revenue growth continues growing, with the management expecting it to keep growing. Its revenue surged by 454% in the second quarter to $582 million, with its six-month figure rising to $981 million.
The challenge, however, is that this growth is coming at a cost. For example, its depreciation and amortization rose from $75 million in the second quarter of last year to over $259 million. This is a big number, which means that its D&A is about 44% of the total revenue.
The company’s capital expenditure continued growing, reaching over $5.7 billion as it continues to spend. It is funding its spending through borrowing and using customer prepayments. In its statement, the management said that it expected to receive about $9 billion in customer prepayments.
Worse, the company has funded its capital expenditure through share sales. It sold 12.7 million shares through June, raising $2.8 billion in cash. It has about 13 million in outstanding shares that it can sell. This explains why it has a short interest of about 20%.
NBIS stock chart | Source: TradingView
The daily chart shows that the NBIS stock has soared in the past few days, moving from a low of $194.76 last week to a high of $245. A closer look shows that it has already crossed the 50-day moving average and formed an inverted head-and-shoulders pattern. These technicals are usually high bullish.
Nebius is attempting to move above the Major S/R pivot point of the Murrey Math Lines tool at $250. Therefore, the most likely scenario is where it continues rising, potentially to the strong pivot reverse level of $312. This view will be confirmed if it crosses the resistance at $300.
Nebius Group NV (NASDAQ:NBIS) experienced a significant Power Inflow alert, a key bullish indicator that is closely tracked by traders who value order flow analytics, specifically institutional and retail order flow data.
On September 8 at 10:20AM EST, NBIS triggered a Power Inflow signal at a price of $238.59. NBIS’s price in the opening hour of trading had been mostly stagnant, even dropping slightly prior to the signal. At the time of the signal, and then thereafter, both retail and institutional trading interest in NBIS shifted toward the buy side, leading to an immediate rise in the stock price, eventually reaching a post-alert high of $254.74 as of 2:00PM EST. This Power Inflow signal is intended to be a bullish indication of institutional and retail interest, highlighting where traders may be entering the market for the stock.
Understanding the Power Inflow Signal
The Power Inflow alert is a proprietary signal developed and provided by TradePulse. Issued within the first two hours of the trading day, the alert highlights moments when there is a significant shift in order flow, specifically indicating a strong trend toward buying activity. This suggests a higher probability of bullish price movement for the remainder of the trading day, making it a potentially strategic and opportune entry point for active traders.
Order flow analytics examine real-time buying and selling behavior by analyzing volume, timing, and order size across both retail and institutional participants. These insights provide a deeper understanding of price action and market sentiment, allowing traders and institutions to make more informed decisions.
NBIS Performance
At the time of the Power Inflow alert, NBIS was trading at $238.59. Following the signal:
• Intraday High As Of 2:00PM EST: $254.74 (+6.77%)
Today’s Power Inflow alert on NBIS illustrates a clear example of how real-time order flow analytics can uncover bullish momentum, particularly during periods when price action appears stagnant or even declining. Traders who bought NBIS shortly after the Power Inflow signal could have captured an immediate and substantial intraday gain, emphasizing the advantage of closely monitoring order flow data. These short-term gains further highlight the value of order flow analytics in identifying bullish intraday momentum and potential price reversals.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or a solicitation to buy or sell securities. The analysis is based on stock order flow data, but accuracy is not guaranteed. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Please consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Benzinga Disclaimer: This article is from an unpaid external contributor. It does not represent Benzinga’s reporting and has not been edited for content or accuracy.
NBIS is signing multiyear AI-cloud contracts exceeding $1 billion on average, supported by strong demand for GPU capacity and attractive contract economics. Customer prepayments cover 50% to 60% of associated capacity capex, improving cash conversion and reducing capital payback periods. Nebius charges $7.15 per hour for B200 capacity, above the broader market benchmark, while short-duration capacity can earn materially higher revenue per megawatt of capacity.
The AI infrastructure buildout has been expensive, and Nvidia (NVDA +0.84%) CEO Jensen Huang recently put a price on it. He estimated at the G20 Summit that it costs between $50 billion and $60 billion to build a 1-gigawatt facility.
These facilities will become vital for the AI build-out. They make it easier to scale agentic AI, chatbots, and upcoming physical AI, which includes humanoid robots and autonomous vehicles.
This is obviously good news for neocloud providers like Nebius (NBIS +7.48%), which build these data centers. However, there are a few key catalysts that investors may not be anticipating.
Image source: Getty Images
Annual recurring revenue isn't the only way to value AI data center providers When Nebius reported Q2 earnings, it told investors that its revenue jumped by 454% year-over-year to $582 million. Annual recurring revenue reached $3 billion, and it's aiming for $7 billion to $9 billion in annual recurring revenue by the end of the year.
Today's Change
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While annual recurring revenue is a good gauge for determining a stock's fair price, investors should also consider the multigigawatt pipeline. Since Huang set $50 billion to $60 billion as the range for a 1-gigawatt facility, Nebius' projected five gigawatts of contracted power by the end of 2026 can be worth up to $300 billion when all of the facilities are finished.
That doesn't mean Nebius should immediately have a $300 billion market cap. However, the data centers offer significant value that goes well beyond the annual recurring revenue that they can generate.
Neoclouds got additional leverage with raising capital Neoclouds have a compelling opportunity, but high capital costs have been the major weakness. Huang pegging the cost of a 1-gigawatt facility at $50 billion to $60 billion can actually solve that problem, especially if the value of these facilities continues to climb.
Neoclouds like Nebius have been taking customer prepayments to help fund these builds. If people place a higher valuation on a 1-gigawatt facility, Nebius can ask for additional money up front, which goes toward site construction.
Nebius told investors in its Q2 shareholder letter that the annual contract value of a single megawatt stood at $12 million at the start of the year. Q2 deals have exceeded $20 million per year, and the company has been negotiating short-term Q3 deals that are above $40 million per megawatt.
It's reached the point where 50% to 60% of Nebius' capital expenditures have been self-financed by prepayments. That's part of the reason Nebius ended the quarter with an $8 billion cash position. As the value of megawatts and data centers increases, Nebius can get even more prepayments that reduce the necessity of shareholder dilution.
Data centers can be financed in the future Although prepayments are an excellent funding source, they haven't been enough for Nebius and other neoclouds. However, the data centers themselves can cover the gap if lenders are willing to let neoclouds borrow against them.
Iren (IREN +7.28%) CEO Dan Roberts said that prepayments can keep up with most of the neocloud's capital expenditures. However, the company also said that its entire data center portfolio remains unencumbered. Iren can theoretically raise billions of dollars just by taking out loans against its facilities, and the same applies to Nebius. GPU-backed financing has been the popular route for both of these companies.
There's no need to finance the data centers if prepayments, GPU-backed financing, and realized revenue are enough to keep up with expenses. However, it's an extra resource that will make it easier to fund additional projects.
One of the bearish points for neoclouds is how they are going to raise all of the necessary capital for the data center buildouts. A focus on prepayments and GPU-backed financing has mostly answered that question, but data center financing serves as an extra funding source if needed.
Nebius Group N.V. remains a buy as its asset-light AI-PaaS model accelerates capacity expansion, drives high-margin software economics, and leverages $9B in prepayments. NBIS's asset-light franchise model offloads CapEx to partners, enabling rapid scaling, high ROIC, and decoupling free cash flow from CapEx burn as next-gen silicon clusters deploy. Despite concerns over 5-year depreciation vs. 2-year GPU obsolescence and $5.75B in convertible debt, I see no immediate impairment risk before 2028–2029.
Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of NBIS either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.
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Nebius Group (NBIS) remains a Buy as it monetizes AI infrastructure scarcity, with 2Q26 revenue up 454% YoY and EBITDA margins guided at 40%+ for FY26. NBIS is leveraging a structurally supply-constrained market, achieving $20–25M/MW for core contracts and $40–50M/MW for urgent capacity, driving step-change unit economics. The business model is shifting toward auction-style pricing, asset-light partnerships, and higher-margin software layers, supporting a multi-year hypergrowth and operating leverage thesis.
AMSTERDAM--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Nebius Group N.V. (“Nebius Group” or the “Company”; Nasdaq: NBIS), the AI cloud company, today announced that members of its management team will take part in the following investor conferences: Goldman Sachs Communacopia + Technology Conference on September 8, 2026 at 3:45 PM (PT). Citi's 2026 Global TMT Conference on September 9, 2026 at 7:50 AM (PT). The registration link to the live webcast and a replay of each event will be available on the company's investor re.
Nebius Group NV (NASDAQ:NBIS) experienced a significant Power Inflow alert, a key bullish indicator that is closely tracked by traders who value order flow analytics, specifically institutional and retail order flow data.
On September 1 at 10:25 AM EST, NBIS triggered a Power Inflow signal at a price of $196.14. NBIS’s price in the opening hour of trading had been mostly stagnant, even dropping slightly prior to the signal. At the time of the signal, and then thereafter, both retail and institutional trading interest in NBIS shifted toward the buy side, leading to an immediate rise in the stock price, eventually reaching a post-alert high of $202.81 as of 2:30PM EST. This Power Inflow signal is intended to be a bullish indication of institutional and retail interest, highlighting where traders may be entering the market for the stock.
Understanding the Power Inflow Signal
The Power Inflow alert is a proprietary signal developed and provided by TradePulse. Issued within the first two hours of the trading day, the alert highlights moments when there is a significant shift in order flow, specifically indicating a strong trend toward buying activity. This suggests a higher probability of bullish price movement for the remainder of the trading day, making it a potentially strategic and opportune entry point for active traders.
Order flow analytics examine real-time buying and selling behavior by analyzing volume, timing, and order size across both retail and institutional participants. These insights provide a deeper understanding of price action and market sentiment, allowing traders and institutions to make more informed decisions.
NBIS Performance
At the time of the Power Inflow alert, NBIS was trading at $196.14. Following the signal:
• Intraday High As Of 2:30PM EST: $202.81 (+3.40%)
Today’s Power Inflow alert on NBIS illustrates a clear example of how real-time order flow analytics can uncover bullish momentum, particularly during periods when price action appears stagnant or even declining. Traders who bought NBIS shortly after the Power Inflow signal could have captured an immediate intraday gain, emphasizing the effectiveness of TradePulse’s Power Inflow alert and the advantage of closely monitoring order flow data. These short-term gains further highlight the value of order flow analytics in identifying bullish intraday momentum and potential price reversals.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or a solicitation to buy or sell securities. The analysis is based on stock order flow data, but accuracy is not guaranteed. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Please consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Benzinga Disclaimer: This article is from an unpaid external contributor. It does not represent Benzinga’s reporting and has not been edited for content or accuracy.
Nebius (NBIS -2.85%) has more than $40 billion in contracted demand, but converting that backlog into revenue will mean of the most aggressive infrastructure build-outs in the AI market. Revenue is soaring, customers help fund expansion, and capacity is growing. Now investors have to watch if execution and financing keep pace with the opportunity.
Stock prices used were the market prices of Aug. 24, 2026. The video was published on Aug. 31, 2026.
Rick Orford has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. Rick Orford is an affiliate of The Motley Fool and may be compensated for promoting its services. If you choose to subscribe through their link, they will earn some extra money that supports their channel. Their opinions remain their own and are unaffected by The Motley Fool.
Nebius has surged over 200% in a year on the back of marquee deals and a $37.5 billion backlog, yet three customers still drive nearly 60% of revenue and a $20 billion capex bill looms. The setup has two very…
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At $206.32, Nebius Group (NASDAQ:NBIS | NBIS Price Prediction) sits in a setup that warrants patience. After a violent rerating this year, the stock trades on the assumption that every marquee contract, every megawatt, and every financing round lands on schedule, which warrants pause before adding.
Nebius runs an AI cloud supplying GPU compute, storage, and software to model developers and enterprises, with the Nebius AI Cloud segment producing $574.90 million of the group’s $582.30 million in Q2 revenue. Smaller subsidiaries include TripleTen in edtech and Avride in autonomous delivery, plus a stake in ClickHouse.
The rerating has been driven by anchor deals with Microsoft and Meta, a $2.0B pre-funded warrant investment from NVIDIA, and Nasdaq-100 inclusion earlier this year, per Yahoo Finance coverage from June. The demand pull here is the same one lifting the power, cooling, and networking suppliers we profiled in a free report on seven AI infrastructure names that aren’t chipmakers.
Bull Case: Backlog Is Doing the Talking Q2 revenue grew 454.04% year over year and beat consensus by 1.33%, with the AI cloud unit expanding 514% and cost of revenues improving to 23% from 29%. Group adjusted EBITDA reached $236 million at a 41% margin, and annualized run-rate revenue hit $3 billion.
Remaining performance obligations sit at $37.5B, and management raised its year-end contracted power target to 5 gigawatts. A capacity auction cleared at 15% above prior peak Blackwell pricing, and Arkady Volozh said Nebius “could sell today our entire 2027 capacity on these terms if we wanted to.”
Bear Case: Capital Intensity and Concentration Three customers represented 24%, 21%, and 14% of Q2 revenue. H1 capital expenditures already hit $8.13 billion, with full-year 2026 capex guided to $20 billion to $25 billion. Convertible debt carries at $8.5B with fair value of $20.8B, and interest expense surged to $119.1M from $4.8M.
Uncommenced lease obligations sit at $12.1B, the May ATM already sold 12.7 million shares at a weighted $223.60, and Nebius competes head-on with Azure, AWS, and Google Cloud, a race that requires perpetual capital deployment into next-generation chips. Q3 25, Q4 25, and Q1 26 all missed revenue consensus.
Two-Sided Setup: Patience Required The story is genuinely two-sided. Execution has been strong on capacity, marquee contracts, and margin expansion, but current valuation hinges on hitting the $7B to $9B ARR exit target while navigating global power grid queue delays and steady HBM and GPU supply allocations.
There is also residual sentiment around historical Yandex ties that can occasionally create noise among institutional compliance desks, even though the corporate separation is legally complete. What to watch: quarterly ARR progression toward the guide, connected power reaching the 800 megawatts to 1 gigawatt target, and customer diversification beyond the top three.
Valuation and Targets Shares trade at $206.32 against an average analyst target of $286.69, implying roughly 39% upside if consensus proves right. Forward P/E sits at 68 and EV/revenue at 45.
Coverage skews constructive, with 1 Strong Buy, 8 Buy, 4 Hold, 0 Sell, and 1 Strong Sell. NBIS is up 146.48% year to date against the S&P 500’s 12.48%, and up 201.99% over one year versus 18.91% for the index.
Key Observations: Setup Requires Patience At $206.32, Nebius sits in a wait-and-see setup for researchers. The bull thesis is real, but the entry point implies near-flawless execution across power delivery, GPU allocation, and customer diversification through the second half of the year.
The next catalyst pair matters most: Q3 revenue against the $899 million consensus, and connected-power progress toward the year-end target. A clean beat with visible customer broadening would materially improve the risk/reward profile observed today.
The scenario that would meaningfully weaken the setup is a second consecutive quarter of ARR conversion slippage combined with fresh equity issuance at lower prices, since the $8.5B convertible stack and remaining ATM capacity keep dilution live. With the stock already up 146.48% YTD, the margin of safety has compressed materially.
From a research standpoint, waiting one or two quarters carries limited informational cost relative to the risk embedded in paying growth-stock multiples for a business whose top three customers still generate 59% of revenue.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Nebius Group N.V. (NASDAQ:NBIS – Get Free Report) has been assigned a consensus rating of “Moderate Buy” from the eighteen research firms that are currently covering the stock, MarketBeat Ratings reports. Seven equities research analysts have rated the stock with a hold rating, ten have issued a buy rating and one has given a strong buy rating to the company. The average 12 month price target among analysts that have issued a report on the stock in the last year is $226.00.
Several analysts have issued reports on the stock. Citizens Jmp raised their price objective on shares of Nebius Group from $175.00 to $270.00 and gave the stock a “market outperform” rating in a research note on Thursday, May 14th. DA Davidson reaffirmed a “neutral” rating and issued a $175.00 price objective on shares of Nebius Group in a research note on Thursday, August 13th. Weiss Ratings cut Nebius Group from a “hold (c)” rating to a “hold (c-)” rating in a research report on Tuesday, August 11th. Wall Street Zen raised shares of Nebius Group from a “strong sell” rating to a “sell” rating in a research report on Sunday, August 16th. Finally, Citigroup boosted their target price on Nebius Group from $278.00 to $324.00 and gave the stock a “buy” rating in a research note on Friday, August 14th.
Get Our Latest Stock Report on NBIS
Nebius Group Price Performance Shares of NASDAQ:NBIS opened at $209.18 on Monday. The company has a quick ratio of 4.03, a current ratio of 4.03 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.82. The stock has a market cap of $52.93 billion, a PE ratio of -6,970.34 and a beta of 4.23. The company’s fifty day moving average is $217.95 and its 200 day moving average is $178.27. Nebius Group has a 52 week low of $63.26 and a 52 week high of $299.86. Nebius Group (NASDAQ:NBIS – Get Free Report) last announced its earnings results on Thursday, August 13th. The company reported ($0.12) earnings per share for the quarter, beating analysts’ consensus estimates of ($0.67) by $0.55. Nebius Group had a net margin of 4.55% and a negative return on equity of 6.03%. The firm had revenue of $582.30 million for the quarter, compared to analyst estimates of $567.91 million. During the same quarter in the previous year, the firm posted $2.38 EPS. The company’s revenue for the quarter was up 454% compared to the same quarter last year. Research analysts anticipate that Nebius Group will post -3.76 earnings per share for the current year.
Nebius Group News Roundup Here are the key news stories impacting Nebius Group this week:
Positive Sentiment: Nebius received a powerful boost from a reported $5.75 billion funding haul, easing concerns about how it will finance its planned AI expansion. The funding strengthens the company’s ability to build computing and data-center capacity, a key potential catalyst for future growth. What’s Going On With Nebius Stock Thursday Positive Sentiment: Strong results from Nvidia reinforced expectations for sustained AI demand. Because Nebius is positioned as an AI infrastructure provider, investors interpreted Nvidia’s outlook as supportive of continued demand for GPUs, cloud capacity and data-center services. Nebius stock outlook as Nvidia predicts robust AI growth Positive Sentiment: Palo Alto Networks’ CEO reportedly described Nebius as operating in “a different league,” highlighting the scarcity of high-performance computing capacity and the pricing power available to companies with GPUs and data-center infrastructure. Palo Alto Networks’ CEO Says Nebius Is in a Different League Neutral Sentiment: Broader technology-sector strength and improving technical and sentiment indicators could provide a favorable backdrop for high-growth AI stocks, although this is a market-wide factor rather than a Nebius-specific development. Why the Summer Slump is Setting Up Wall Street’s Next Rally Negative Sentiment: Valuation is the main counterweight. Shares have gained about 203% over the past year, suggesting that considerable AI growth is already reflected in the price. Investors are questioning whether the expansion plans justify the premium valuation, leaving NBIS vulnerable to profit-taking or disappointment if execution slows. Is Nebius Group Priced For Perfection On AI Growth? Insider Buying and Selling at Nebius Group In other news, insider Andrey Korolenko sold 33,871 shares of the business’s stock in a transaction dated Wednesday, July 1st. The stock was sold at an average price of $235.45, for a total value of $7,974,926.95. Following the completion of the transaction, the insider owned 551,338 shares of the company’s stock, valued at $129,812,532.10. The trade was a 5.79% decrease in their position. The sale was disclosed in a filing with the SEC, which is available through the SEC website. Also, Director Charles E. Ryan sold 50,000 shares of the firm’s stock in a transaction dated Friday, August 14th. The stock was sold at an average price of $265.53, for a total transaction of $13,276,500.00. Following the completion of the transaction, the director directly owned 272,533 shares in the company, valued at approximately $72,365,687.49. This represents a 15.50% decrease in their ownership of the stock. The SEC filing for this sale provides additional information. The transaction was executed under a pre-arranged Rule 10b5-1 trading plan. In the last three months, insiders have sold 186,506 shares of company stock worth $46,264,387.
Institutional Investors Weigh In On Nebius Group A number of institutional investors and hedge funds have recently modified their holdings of NBIS. Confluence Investment Management LLC grew its position in Nebius Group by 2.0% in the second quarter. Confluence Investment Management LLC now owns 2,475 shares of the company’s stock worth $684,000 after acquiring an additional 48 shares in the last quarter. Jasper Ridge Partners L.P. raised its position in Nebius Group by 0.5% during the second quarter. Jasper Ridge Partners L.P. now owns 16,132 shares of the company’s stock valued at $4,455,000 after purchasing an additional 74 shares in the last quarter. Ancora Advisors LLC lifted its stake in Nebius Group by 18.8% during the second quarter. Ancora Advisors LLC now owns 475 shares of the company’s stock worth $131,000 after purchasing an additional 75 shares during the last quarter. N.E.W. Advisory Services LLC boosted its holdings in shares of Nebius Group by 76.0% in the 2nd quarter. N.E.W. Advisory Services LLC now owns 176 shares of the company’s stock worth $49,000 after purchasing an additional 76 shares in the last quarter. Finally, Empirical Financial Services LLC d.b.a. Empirical Wealth Management boosted its holdings in shares of Nebius Group by 2.7% in the 1st quarter. Empirical Financial Services LLC d.b.a. Empirical Wealth Management now owns 2,977 shares of the company’s stock worth $309,000 after purchasing an additional 79 shares in the last quarter. Institutional investors and hedge funds own 21.90% of the company’s stock.
About Nebius Group (Get Free Report)
Nebius Group N.V., a technology company, builds intelligent products and services powered by machine learning and other technologies to help consumers and businesses navigate the online and offline world. The company’s services include Nebius AI, an AI-centric cloud platform that offers infrastructure and computing capability for AI deployment and machine-learning oriented solutions; and Toloka AI that offers generative AI (GenAI) solutions at every stage of the GenAI lifecycle, such as data annotation and generation, model training and fine-tuning, and quality assessment of large language model for accuracy and reliability.
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As the race for artificial intelligence dominance intensifies in 2026, investors are weighing the infrastructure-heavy approach of Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS -4.26%) against the software-driven model of SoundHound AI Inc (SOUN -1.52%).
Nebius provides the physical and digital foundation for companies to build AI models, while SoundHound focuses on conversational interfaces for consumer-facing businesses. Both are high-growth players, but they carry vastly different financial profiles and operational risks.
The case for Nebius Group N.V.Nebius operates an Amsterdam-based cloud platform designed to support every stage of the artificial intelligence development cycle. The company provides infrastructure for data processing and model training for clients in fields like healthcare and financial services. The company reports over 1,300 employees and serves AI builders and enterprises across media, entertainment, and retail segments.
In FY 2025, revenue reached nearly $529.8 million, representing a significant year-over-year increase of roughly 350%. The company reported net income of close to $101.7 million for the same period. This resulted in a net margin of approximately 19.2%, demonstrating the company's ability to generate profit as it scales its cloud footprint. The company moved from a net loss of $641.4 million in fiscal year 2024 to profitability of $101 million in 2025.
As of its December 2025 balance sheet, the debt-to-equity ratio, which compares total debt to shareholder equity, is approximately 1.1x. The so-called current ratio, a measure of a company's ability to cover short-term debts with short-term assets, stands at roughly 3.1x. Free cash flow was approximately negative $3.7 billion. Note that stock-based compensation (SBC) accounted for roughly 21.6% of operating cash flow, which inflates reported cash generation, as SBC is a non-cash expense added back in the cash flow statement.
The case for SoundHound AISoundHound AI is a leader among tech stocks providing voice-enabled solutions that allow businesses to add conversational interfaces to their products. The company has secured significant commercial agreements, including an expanded partnership with Casey's to deploy voice ordering across 2,600 convenience stores. In its latest annual report, filed as the 2025 Form 10-K, the company reported approximately 809 global employees as of the end of the calendar year.
In FY 2025, SoundHound generated revenue of approximately $168.9 million, marking a year-over-year increase of nearly 100%. While the company is still scaling, its net loss narrowed to roughly $14.0 million from a much larger loss in the previous fiscal year. Revenue grew from $84.7 million in FY 2024, demonstrating the rapid adoption of its voice-enabled artificial intelligence platform and a net margin of negative 8.3%.
As of its December 2025 balance sheet, SoundHound maintains a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.0x, meaning it carries no debt relative to its equity. Its so-called current ratio of 4.6x is very high, providing a substantial cushion to fund its ongoing operations and acquisitions. Free cash flow, the cash a company generates after subtracting capital expenditures from its operational cash flow, was negative $103.1 million for the year.
Risk profile comparisonNebius faces significant risks related to its capital-intensive business model, as building and maintaining global AI data centers requires billions of dollars. The company must compete against massive incumbents like Microsoft Corp (MSFT +1.68%) and Amazon.com Inc (AMZN +3.97%) that have significantly deeper pockets and established customer bases. Furthermore, its rapid revenue growth may be difficult to sustain as the market for specialized AI cloud services matures.
SoundHound faces legal exposure, including a class action lawsuit in California regarding alleged unauthorized recording of customer phone calls. The company also relies heavily on an acquisition-led growth strategy, which carries the risk of integration challenges if it cannot successfully merge companies like LivePerson Inc (LPSN +1.07%) into its core business. Finally, SoundHound competes with the integrated voice assistants developed by tech giants such as Alphabet Inc (GOOGL +1.74%) and Apple Inc (AAPL +1.63%).
Valuation comparisonSoundHound AI currently offers a lower P/S ratio, while neither business has a forward price-to-earnings ratio (forward P/E) because they are not expected to turn a profit in the coming year.
MetricNebius Group N.V.SoundHound AIForward P/En/an/aP/S ratio43.8x14.5xValuation metrics sourced from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP) and may differ from other data providers.
Which stock would I buy in 2026?AI is suddenly so ubiquitous in our everyday lives and so popular in the stock market that it can be difficult to gauge long-term prospects for related stocks.
Nebius Group, N.V. is a newcomer to AI. It used to be part of the Russian Internet giant Yandex. It was split from Yandex to separate the Russian (Yandex) parts of the business from the non-Russian (Nebius) parts. That left Nebius with a lot of cash and a few unconnected businesses. Just last year, Nebius decided to go all-in on AI, electing to use its large cash pile to buy up thousands of top-tier chips from Nvidia (NVDA -4.58%) and turn itself into a hyperscaler. The audacious move paid off, with annual sales topping $500 million last year. The year prior, before it dove into AI, it sold less than a fifth of that.
To SoundHound AI's benefit, it's the more established business of the two, having been involved in speech recognition since being founded in 2005. In the past year, the company has chalked up impressive results, including counting 12 of the world's 15 largest banks, 4 of the 5 largest automakers, and 4 of the 5 largest airlines among its customers.
It's fair to question what competitive moat an AI speech recognition business has in an age where AI's capabilities are growing by leaps and bounds. It's not beyond the realm of possibility that larger competitors like Alphabet or Apple could take over the speech recognition space by leveraging their massive war chests and the popularity of their other products.
If you can justify NBIS's very high valuation and believe AI is a long-term, transformational technology, then Nebius Group and its aggressive push to be counted among the giants of AI make it the choice. The lessons of AI, so far, are that size matters.
Nebius Group N.V. revenue surged 454%, while AI Cloud EBITDA margin reached 50% and ARR expanded to $3 billion. Short-term capacity commands $40 million to $50 million per megawatt, signaling substantial scarcity and improving pricing power. Nebius targets more than 1 gigawatt of 2027 deployment while customer prepayments should exceed $9 billion during 2026.
Nebius just closed a convertible debt deal that blew past its own raised target, and instead of punishing the stock, investors sent it higher. Here is why the size of this raise matters more than the dilution it brings.
Nebius Group (NASDAQ:NBIS | NBIS Price Prediction) stock is up 4% to $218.47 Tuesday midday, snapping a six-session losing streak that had built as the market braced for a large convertible deal. The rebound arrived right after the company disclosed a raise that came in larger than the market had expected. Year to date through Monday’s close, Nebius Group stock was up 152%, so the recent slide interrupted a strong 2026 run.
For context, the First Trust Cloud Computing ETF (NASDAQ:SKYY) is down 0.1% to $158.77 in Tuesday trading, drifting as software names cool off. Meanwhile, Global X Data Center & Digital Infrastructure ETF (NASDAQ:DTCR) is up 2% to $28.53, tracking a firmer bid across data-center REITs and semiconductor names tied to AI buildouts.
Bigger Raise Draws Bigger Demand Nebius announced Monday the closing of a private offering of convertible senior notes with aggregate gross proceeds of approximately $5.75 billion, sold to qualified institutional buyers. The deal came in two series: 0.50% convertible notes due 2030 with $3.45 billion in aggregate original principal, and 4.50% convertible notes due 2034 with $2.3 billion in original principal. Initial purchasers exercised their options in full for an additional $450 million of the 2030 notes and $300 million of the 2034 notes.
The total exceeded Nebius’s initial $4.5 billion target, which had been raised to $5 billion last week. Investors appear to be reading the upsize as validation of demand for the company’s AI infrastructure buildout, which is anchored by long-term contracted capacity (we profiled seven suppliers powering that buildout, from power to cooling, in a free report you can grab here). Order books that clear at a higher size and a low 0.50% coupon on the front tranche suggest institutional appetite for exposure to neocloud growth.
Dilution Stack Grows Alongside Backlog Alongside the new offering, Nebius entered privately negotiated exchange agreements with certain holders of its 2.00% convertible notes due 2029 and 3.00% convertible notes due 2031, swapping $400 million of the 2029 notes and $400 million of the 2031 notes for approximately 15.8 million Class A ordinary shares. The company disclosed that those holders may sell the shares in the open market or unwind hedge positions, activity that “could decrease (or reduce the size of any increase in) the market price of the Class A shares.” The exchange effectively swaps a portion of the older notes for equity ahead of their scheduled maturities.
Proceeds from the raise will fund data-center construction and build-out, investment in its full-stack AI cloud, expansion of its data-center footprint, procurement of GPUs and other key components, and general corporate purposes, according to the company. Long-term committed capacity contracts represent $37.5 billion in remaining performance obligations, and three customers each represent more than 10% of quarterly revenue. That concentration cuts both ways, providing visibility while tightening the company’s reliance on a handful of anchor tenants.
Neocloud Peers Set the Frame The bull case rests on customer demand. Nebius signed a five-year, $12 billion AI infrastructure deal with Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META) and is targeting 800 MW to 1 GW of connected power by the end of 2026, with data center campuses in Missouri, Pennsylvania, Finland and the United Kingdom. That contract sits inside the $37.5 billion of remaining performance obligations that the raise is designed to fund.
CoreWeave (NASDAQ:CRWV) is the closest listed comparison for Nebius, running the same neocloud playbook with heavy capex, hyperscaler-anchored contracts, and its own large convertible-supported balance sheet. IREN Limited (NASDAQ:IREN) rounds out the neocloud trio, and IREN reports fiscal fourth quarter 2026 results after the close on Thursday, August 27, giving the group its next fundamental checkpoint. Both peers face the same capital-intensity math that Nebius does, which is why the group tends to trade in sympathy on financing news.
What to Watch Traders can watch for whether the Nebius stock rebound holds into today’s close and how the new 2030 and 2034 notes trade against the existing convertible stack. Sizing matters here, since the raise concentrates dilution risk even as it clears near-term financing uncertainty.
The IREN earnings report Thursday will give investors the next read on neocloud demand and capex pace across the group. Investors should size their positions to reflect the capital intensity of the model and the customer concentration in Nebius’s book, especially after a session where good news arrived wrapped inside a $5.75 billion debt raise.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Nebius (NBIS -4.26%) is racing to turn massive AI demand into a scaled cloud platform, with Nvidia and Goldman Sachs providing powerful validation. The growth is real, but so are the risks. This video examines the tension between institutional confidence and short-seller skepticism, and what Nebius must deliver for the bullish thesis to keep working.
Stock prices used were the market prices of Aug. 11, 2026. The video was published on Aug. 22, 2026.
Rick Orford has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Goldman Sachs Group and Nvidia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. Rick Orford is an affiliate of The Motley Fool and may be compensated for promoting its services. If you choose to subscribe through their link, they will earn some extra money that supports their channel. Their opinions remain their own and are unaffected by The Motley Fool.
Nebius Group is positioned as a premium AI cloud intermediary, leveraging scarce, production-ready capacity and a full-stack operational model. NBIS's contract economics are robust, with >$1B deals, 70% prepayments, and a 22-month payback, fueling a self-reinforcing expansion and funding flywheel. Valuation is rich at ~25x current-year revenue but justified by NBIS's superior growth, asset-light expansion, and strong customer commitments exceeding $40B.
Nebius remains a Strong Buy, driven by its leading position in the AI and data center narrative. NBIS has surged nearly 61% since prior coverage, far outperforming the benchmark's 6% return. Multi-year catalysts include hyperscaler capex cycles, robust AI funding appetite, and multi-year technology deals supporting >500% revenue growth.
AMSTERDAM--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Nebius Group N.V. (the “Company”; Nasdaq: NBIS), the AI cloud company, today announced that all resolutions proposed at the Annual General Meeting of the Company (the “AGM”), held on August 25, 2026, have been adopted. The total number of Class A shares eligible to vote at the AGM was 238,402,543, with a total of 238,402,543 voting rights; the total number of Class B shares eligible to vote at the AGM was 33,455,053, with a total of 334,550,530 voting rights. Each Cl.
Nebius Group N.V. is rated Buy due to exceptional execution, robust demand, and strong earnings momentum in the neocloud sector. NBIS's Q2 2026 revenue surged 454% YoY to $582.3M, with ARR up nearly 600% YoY and EBITDA margins at 49.7%. Nvidia's 9.3% equity stake and favorable debt terms reduce execution and capital risks, supporting NBIS's aggressive capacity expansion.
Nebius stock jumped by over 6% in the extended hours as technology companies reacted to the strong Nvidia earnings, which painted a rosy color on the booming AI industry. It rose to $215 after ending the day at $213. Still, the company faces significant competition challenges as more companies move into the industry.
Nebius Group, a company that counts Nvidia as a big investor, rose after the latter delivered a stronger-than-expected earnings report. In a statement, Nvidia said that its revenue jumped to $96 billion last quarter, higher than the expected $92 billion.
Most importantly, the company guided to its FY’28 revenue growth being higher than expected. Its guidance is that its revenue will grow by 70%, much higher than the 40% analysts were expecting. The real figure will be much higher than that because the company assumed no China sales.
Nebius Group will benefit from the ongoing AI boom because it is one of the biggest infrastructure providers in the industry. It counts top companies like Meta Platforms and Nvidia as clients.
Its most recent results showed that revenue went parabolic, a situation that will accelerate in the foreseeable future. Its revenue jumped to $582 million in the second quarter, a 454% annual increase. For the first six months of the year, revenue was up by 529% to $981 million.
In its statement, the company said that demand for its computing power was so high that it could sell out its 2027 capacity today. This bodes well for its growth trajectory, which analysts expect will continue in the foreseeable future.
Indeed, analysts predict that its annual revenue will climb 532% this year to $3.35 billion. They also expect it to grow by over 250% next year to $11 billion. If this growth continues, it means that the company will hit the $50 billion mark in the coming years.
Still, the company’s revenue growth has not boosted the stock performance. That’s because its business is facing substantial challenges, including the rising costs, with Nvidia planning to increase prices by as much as 15% in January. Other products like servers and memory are getting expensive by the day.
This surge will lead to more cash burn. In its last quarter, the company spent $5.7 billion in capex. As a result, there is a risk that it will dilute its shareholders further. It sold 12.7 million shares, generating $2.8 billion in cash. It has 12.3 million more shares available in the current ATM program.
Competition is also rising in the industry. On Wednesday, Anthropic reached a $45 billion deal with Nscale, a top Nebius competitor. Rum Holdings, formerly known as Rumble, has also entered the industry. This is on top of other top companies like Meta Platforms, RIOT Platforms, and MARA Holdings.
These concerns explains why the company has a high short interest of over 21%, with Michael Burry being one of the top short sellers.
NBIS stock chart | Source: TradingView
The daily chart shows that the NBIS stock has pulled back, erasing the gains it made after the last financial results. It has dropped from a high of $276 to the current $213. By doing this, the stock has filled the fair-value gap it formed after its earnings report.
The two lines of the MACD indicator have formed a bearish crossover pattern. On the positive side, it formed an abandoned baby candlestick pattern on August 24. Now, after the strong Nvidia earnings, there is a likelihood that it will retest the resistance at $250 and then resume the downward trend.
Palo Alto Networks' CEO is warning that most AI cloud companies will collapse when GPU scarcity ends, but he carves out a narrow exception for a category of survivors he calls neoscalers. Nebius made his list, and the reasons why…
The AI infrastructure boom is creating a peculiar investing landscape. Demand for computing power is running ahead of available supply, allowing companies that own GPUs and data-center capacity to command premium prices. Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA | NVDA Price Prediction) said its neocloud partners are expected to reach 8 gigawatts of installed capacity by the end of 2026, up from 3 gigawatts at the end of 2025.
Yet Palo Alto Networks (NASDAQ:PANW) CEO Nikesh Arora sees a reckoning coming when supply catches up. His warning is stark: “In two years from now you will be able to buy a neocloud for less than they raise at today.”
But Arora doesn’t put every AI cloud company in the same bucket. He specifically sees Nebius Group (NASDAQ:NBIS) becoming a “neoscaler,” along with CoreWeave (NASDAQ:CRWV). That distinction matters for investors deciding whether Nebius is an AI infrastructure bubble candidate or a potential long-term winner.
What Is a Neoscaler? A neocloud primarily rents scarce GPU capacity. That can be a lucrative business while GPUs, power, and data-center space are constrained. But it also leaves the company vulnerable when competitors add capacity.
Arora’s “neoscaler” concept describes something more durable: an AI cloud provider that reaches sufficient scale, locks in major customers, secures power and infrastructure, and adds software capabilities on top of expensive hardware.
Nebius is building toward that model. Its second-quarter shareholder letter showed AI cloud revenue of $575 million, up 514% year over year, while annualized recurring revenue reached $3 billion. More important, its AI cloud business generated a 50% adjusted EBITDA margin in the quarter.
That software layer is important because GPUs depreciate and become obsolete. If all a company does is rent chips, falling rental prices can quickly squeeze returns. Nebius is trying to make its platform more than a warehouse full of GPUs.
A brutal reckoning is coming for AI infrastructure. See why industry titans are betting $40B on the 'neoscaler' distinction to survive the bubble. Why Nebius Looks Different The strongest evidence supporting Arora’s view is Nebius’ contracted demand. The company has signed multibillion-dollar agreements with Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) and Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META), including a roughly $2.9 billion, five-year Meta agreement. Nebius said in July that it had more than $40 billion of additional contracted revenue from investment-grade customers such as Microsoft and Meta.
It is also securing power and expanding its infrastructure footprint. Nebius raised its contracted power guidance to more than 5 gigawatts and said four large second-quarter deals averaged more than $1 billion each. About 50% to 60% of capital expenditures for some deals can be financed through customer prepayments.
That changes the capital equation. Nebius isn’t simply building speculative capacity and hoping customers arrive.
The Risk Is Still Real Granted, Arora’s warning shouldn’t be dismissed. Neoclouds remain capital-intensive businesses, and he argues their economics depend on capex and internal rates of return. When supply and demand balance, he says, equity valuations will normalize — and funding capex through equity works only while markets remain euphoric.
Nebius just closed a $5.75 billion convertible-note offering, including $3.45 billion of notes due in 2030 and $2.3 billion due in 2034. The proceeds will finance data-center expansion, GPUs, and its AI cloud platform. That is a lot of capital to put to work.
But it is also why the distinction between a generic neocloud and a neoscaler matters. Nebius has contracts, power, scale, and an increasingly broad software stack. The company says its platform serves the full AI workload lifecycle, while acquisitions such as Eigen AI and Clarifai are intended to strengthen inference and AI engineering capabilities.
Key Takeaway In short, Arora’s comments aren’t a blanket endorsement of Nebius. They’re almost the opposite: a warning that investors shouldn’t confuse today’s GPU scarcity with a permanent competitive advantage.
Nebius, however, has several characteristics that could allow it to survive the normalization Arora expects. Its $3 billion AI-cloud ARR, 50% adjusted EBITDA margin, multibillion-dollar customer contracts, and more than $40 billion of additional contracted revenue give it a foundation most speculative neoclouds lack.
That makes Nebius worth considering for aggressive investors. But after a massive infrastructure buildout and $5.75 billion financing, the stock still demands discipline. The neoscaler thesis is compelling — investors just shouldn’t pay any price for it.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Nebius Group's (NBIS -4.26%) stock has surged after the artificial intelligence infrastructure company delivered a blockbuster second quarter.
Revenue jumped 454% year over year to $582 million,while adjusted EBITDA reached $236 million. The company also signed four AI cloud contracts worth more than $1 billion each.
The business is clearly moving fast. But so is the stock.
With shares trading at more than 200% return in just one year and the company valued at roughly $60 billion (as of writing), investors are asking an important question: Has Nebius already gone too far, or could the stock still have room to run?
Image source: Getty Images.
The AI opportunity is enormous Nebius doesn't build AI models like ChatGPT. Instead, it provides the computing infrastructure needed to build and run them. Think of Nebius as a company that rents out extremely powerful computers to businesses developing artificial intelligence.
Those computers require expensive Nvidia GPUs, data centers, electricity, cooling systems, and high-speed networks.
And demand is exploding. Nebius' AI cloud business generated about $575 million of revenue in the second quarter, more than five times the amount generated a year earlier. Management also expects full-year 2026 revenue of $3 billion to $3.4 billion and year-end annual recurring revenue of $7 billion to $9 billion.
The customer demand is equally impressive. Nebius now has more than $40 billion of customer commitments, while management expects more than $9 billion of customer prepayments during 2026. It also said it could sell all of its planned 2027 capacity at current terms.
In simple terms, companies are lining up to buy Nebius' computing capacity. That's the core reason investors are so excited.
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The economics are getting better, too Growth for the sake of growth is never a good thing. But here's where Nebius's business gets particularly interesting.
But first, some basics. Building AI infrastructure is incredibly expensive. Nebius spent about $5.7 billion on it in the second quarter alone. That raises a critical question: How quickly does Nebius get that money back?
Therein lies the good news. The company said the expected payback period for infrastructure tied to contracts signed in the second quarter had fallen to about one year and 10 months, compared with roughly two to three years historically.
That's a big improvement. Imagine Nebius spends $1 billion building AI infrastructure. If it takes three years to recoup that investment, growth requires substantial capital. But if the investment can be recovered in less than two years, Nebius can potentially put that money back to work much sooner.
In other words, it's improving its capital efficiency, which should lead to shareholder value creation.
But there are still big risks The biggest risk is that AI infrastructure becomes a victim of its own success.
Right now, demand for computing power is extremely strong. But companies across the industry are rushing to build more data centers and buy more GPUs. What happens if they eventually build too much? Prices could fall. Customers could have more bargaining power.
Moreover, Nebius's stock may appear to be quite expensive, even after accounting for all the prospects ahead. For perspective, the company is now worth roughly $60 billion and is expected to generate around $3.4 billion in revenue (at the top end of guidance) for 2026. That's a price-to-sales (PS) ratio of 18 times, which is anything but cheap! On one end, traditional valuation measures don't tell the whole story because Nebius is growing extraordinarily quickly. Investors aren't buying the company for what it earns today. They're paying for what they believe Nebius could become in several years.
If the company continues to win enormous contracts and keeps improving its profitability, today's valuation could eventually look much more reasonable.
But there isn't much room for disappointment. When investors pay a premium price for a rapidly growing company, even a small hiccup can cause the stock to fall sharply. For instance, the stock fell more than 20% just last week as the company announced $5 billion private offering of convertible senior notes, triggering severe investor fears regarding equity dilution and debt accumulation.
So, should investors buy Nebius stock? Overall, I'm bullish on the business, but more cautious about the stock at this price.
Nebius is growing rapidly, customers are committing billions of dollars, and its infrastructure expenses appear to be paying back faster. But the stock has already climbed dramatically, and investors are now expecting a lot. And that brings us to an important idea: A great company isn't always a great stock at any price.
For someone who already owns Nebius, I wouldn't sell simply because the stock has delivered good returns. The company's fundamentals are moving in the right direction.
For investors who don't own it, however, I wouldn't rush to invest a large amount in the stock at once. A smaller initial position, followed by additional purchases if the valuation becomes more attractive or the company continues exceeding expectations, could offer a better balance between opportunity and risk.
Nebius (NBIS -4.26%) is turning extraordinary demand for AI infrastructure into billion-dollar contracts, rapid revenue growth, and additional capacity. Its latest quarter provides powerful evidence that commercial momentum is accelerating, but after a massive stock rally, investors must decide whether execution can grow fast enough to support the valuation.
Stock prices used were the market prices of Aug. 18, 2026. The video was published on Aug. 27, 2026.
Rick Orford has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. Rick Orford is an affiliate of The Motley Fool and may be compensated for promoting its services. If you choose to subscribe through their link, they will earn some extra money that supports their channel. Their opinions remain their own and are unaffected by The Motley Fool.
AMSTERDAM--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Nebius Group N.V. (“Nebius Group” or the “Company”; NASDAQ: NBIS), the AI cloud company, today announced the closing of its previously announced offering of convertible senior notes, in two series: 0.50% convertible notes due 2030 (the “2030 Notes”) and 4.50% convertible notes due 2034 (the “2034 Notes”, and together with the 2030 Notes, the “Notes”), in a private offering to qualified institutional buyers pursuant to Rule 144A under the Securities Act of 1933, as am.
Nebius Group (NASDAQ:NBIS) shares are trading lower by almost 4% on Monday as investors digest an upsized convertible financing tied to its AI infrastructure buildout, while the Technology sector is down 2.3% and the S&P 500 is off 0.4%.
• Nebius Group stock is among today’s weakest performers. What’s weighing on NBIS shares?
NBIS Stock Drops After Upsized $5B Convertible Notes OfferingNebius increased the size of its convertible notes offering to $5 billion, with proceeds aimed at funding AI infrastructure expansion.
The move can pressure the stock short-term as traders weigh dilution/convert dynamics and the added supply of paper against longer-term capacity growth.
With markets open, the tape is also risk-off in growth: the Nasdaq is down 1.39% even as market breadth is positive (seven sectors advancing, four declining), and Technology is currently the worst-performing sector at -2.3%. That backdrop helps explain why NBIS is sliding harder than the broader market on a day when defensives such as Consumer Staples are leading.
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NBIS Technical Outlook: Uptrend Intact, Near-Term WeaknessFrom a longer-term trend view, Nebius is still in an uptrend — up 189.67% over the past 12 months and trading 35.5% above its 200-day SMA ($149.71) — but the near-term structure has weakened. The stock is trading 5.3% below its 20-day SMA ($214.22) and 8.9% below its 50-day SMA ($222.71), which often acts as overhead "supply" during pullbacks.
Momentum looks more like consolidation than capitulation, with RSI at 46.14 (neutral), suggesting the selloff isn’t deeply stretched yet and could still chop before a cleaner trend resumes. A key nuance is the 20-day SMA sitting below the 50-day SMA (bearish near-term), even while the 50-day remains above the 200-day (bullish longer-term), a mix that often produces volatile ranges rather than straight-line moves.
Key Resistance: $230 — Round-number ceiling near the area above the 50-day SMA where rebounds can stall. Key Support: $164.50 — Prior buyer-defense zone that sits well above the 200-day SMA but below current price, making it a key "line in the sand" if weakness persists NBIS Underperforms Technology Sector During Broader Tech Sell-offNebius is underperforming its Technology sector on Monday, down 4.57% versus the State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (NYSE:XLK), which is down 1.33%. That relative weakness matters because Technology is currently the worst-performing sector, so Nebius is lagging even within a group that’s already being sold.
Zooming out, the sector has gained 2.81% over the past 30 days but is down 3.21% over the past 90 days, which fits a "bounce inside a choppier medium-term tape" setup. In that context, Nebius’ drop looks like a higher-beta reaction to financing headlines layered on top of a broader tech pullback.
NBIS Earnings Preview, Analyst Price TargetsLooking further out, the next major catalyst for the stock arrives with the Nov. 10 (estimated) earnings report.
EPS Estimate: $-1.36 (Down from a loss of 40 cents year-over-year) Revenue Estimate: $903.49 million (Up from $146.10 million YoY) Analyst Consensus & Recent Actions: The stock carries a Buy rating with a consensus price forecast of $227. Recent analyst moves include:
DA Davidson: Neutral (Raises Target to $250 on Aug. 18) Citigroup: Buy (Raises Target to $324 on Aug. 14) DA Davidson: Neutral (Maintains Target to $175 on Aug. 13) How NBIS Ranks On Momentum, ValuationBelow is the Benzinga Edge scorecard for Nebius, highlighting its strengths and weaknesses compared to the broader market:
Momentum: Bullish (Score: 98.19) — Despite today’s drop, the stock’s broader trend and relative performance signals remain strong. Value: Weak (Score: 4.32) — The market is pricing in aggressive growth, leaving less room for error if execution or funding conditions tighten. The Verdict: Nebius’ Benzinga Edge signal reveals a momentum-driven story with a premium valuation profile. For longer-term bulls, the setup often works best when pullbacks hold above major trend levels, but near-term swings can stay sharp around financing and growth-stock sentiment.
NBIS ETF Exposure: Fund with the Biggest Weighting Leverage Shares 2X Long NBIS Daily ETF (NASDAQ:NBIG): 111.60% Weight Significance: Because Nebius carries such a heavy weight in these funds, any significant inflows or outflows for these ETFs will likely trigger automatic buying or selling of the stock.
NBIS Stock Price Update: Shares Slide On MondayNBIS Stock Price Activity: Nebius Group shares were down 4.15% at $210.03 at the time of publication on Monday, according to Benzinga Pro data.
This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
AI cloud stocks are drifting lower midday Monday, and the group’s tone reflects a single scheduled supply event rather than a broader shift in sentiment toward the theme. Nebius Group‘s (NASDAQ:NBIS | NBIS Price Prediction) $5 billion convertible note offering settles today, and the stock is absorbing the fresh supply.
Nebius Group stock is down 4% to $211.21, pacing declines across the neocloud and cloud-software group as the deal closes. Meanwhile, Datadog (NASDAQ:DDOG) shares are down 3% to $228.43, drifting with the sector rather than reacting to a dated corporate event like Nebius Group’s. Cloudflare (NYSE:NET) stock is falling 3% to $284.50, tracking the same soft cloud-software backdrop without any name-specific catalyst.
The broad cloud complex is barely moving in comparison. Notably, the WisdomTree Cloud Computing Fund (NASDAQ:WCLD) is down 0.8% to $40.35, a fraction of Nebius Group’s decline, which locates today’s pressure at a single name rather than across the AI cloud theme. That gap between one stock and its sector is what a dated supply event tends to look like.
Convertible Settlement Delivers Fresh Supply Nebius Group priced $5 billion of convertible senior notes with net proceeds of roughly $4.94 billion, and the notes are expected to settle today. The deal came in two tranches: $3 billion due 2030 carrying a 0.5% coupon and convertible at $313.46 per share, and $2 billion due 2034 carrying a 4.5% coupon and convertible at $324.65. Both tranches accrete, so the company repays 110% of principal on the 2030 notes and 125% on the 2034 notes at maturity. Separately, and settling on the same date, Nebius agreed to exchange $400 million each of its existing 2029 and 2031 convertible notes for roughly 15.8 million new Class A shares, layering a mechanical share-issuance event on top of the fresh convertible.
The financing dwarfs current operations. Trailing-twelve-month revenue at Nebius Group came in at $1.36 billion, so a $5 billion raise is more than three times that figure. Capital expenditures at Nebius Group ran roughly $5.7 billion in Q2 2026 alone, nearly ten times quarterly revenue, the same buildout dynamic we mapped across seven non-chipmaker AI suppliers in a free report. That level of spend is why the company keeps returning to convertible markets, since the buildout consumes cash at a scale current revenue can’t cover.
Why Nebius Now Leads the Decline Only Nebius Group has a dated corporate event landing today, which is why the stock is falling hardest. Nebius stock was up 162% year to date (YTD) through Friday’s close, making it the runaway leader of the AI cloud complex heading into the settlement and the name with the most room to give back on a supply event.
Datadog stock was up 73% YTD through Friday’s close, and Cloudflare stock was up 49% over the same stretch. Both names reported strong quarterly numbers earlier in August, and with no fresh news on the tape today, their moves look like drift alongside a soft sector rather than a specific reaction to any headline.
Oracle (NYSE:ORCL) stock is down 2% to $143.51, and Oracle stock was down 24% YTD through Friday’s close, making it this year’s group laggard even as Nebius Group has been the runaway leader. Also weaker across the neocloud complex is Nebius’s peer group, though the settlement move at Nebius is what stands out today.
The setup looks like a supply event rather than a change in sentiment toward AI infrastructure. If the pressure were coming from the theme itself, the WisdomTree Cloud Computing Fund would be down more than 0.8%, and Oracle, Datadog, and Cloudflare would be showing steeper declines than their current midday moves.
Positioning Around Today’s Supply Event The Nebius Group situation reads as aggressive financing against contracted demand. Its Q2 2026 revenue was $582.3 million, up 454% year over year (YoY), and its remaining performance obligations stood at $37.5 billion, which is the demand backdrop management is funding against.
Investors should keep their position sizes modest around a stock digesting this much fresh supply in a single session. The convertible tranches settle at strike prices well above current levels, so today’s action reflects the mechanics of the raise and note exchange more than any change in the underlying thesis.
Traders can watch for whether the $211 area holds into the close for NBIS, which would suggest buyers are absorbing today’s supply cleanly. Shareholders may want to check for updates on Nebius Group’s next capacity disclosures, since the same $37.5 billion backlog is what today’s dilution is meant to build against, and any hard number on new gigawatts online or additional customer contracts would help reset the calculus around the fresh share count.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Nebius Group (NBIS -0.45%) announced a proposed $4.5 billion convertible note offering on Wednesday, and shares of the artificial intelligence (AI) cloud company fell about 10% on the news. By that evening, the deal had been upsized and priced. Nebius sold $5.0 billion of convertible senior notes, expected to settle on Aug. 24, with net proceeds of about $4.94 billion.
For scale, Nebius has generated $1.36 billion of revenue over the past 12 months. The company just borrowed more than three and a half times that in a single transaction.
The size (and a share exchange that came along with it) helps explain Wednesday's drop. The terms are worth attention too, because they spell out what building at Nebius's pace costs, and who pays.
But the bigger question here may be this: With financing this big relative to revenue this small, are we in a bubble?
Image source: Getty Images.
The coupons aren't the costThe offering comes in two pieces. There is $3 billion of notes due 2030 that pay 0.50% interest, convertible into stock at an initial price of $313.46 per share, a premium of about 40% over Wednesday's closing price of $223.90. And there is $2 billion of notes due 2034 paying 4.50%, convertible at $324.65 (a 45% premium). The buyers also hold an option for up to $750 million more, which could push net proceeds toward $5.68 billion.
Those coupons look cheap, and on their own they are. But they are not all Nebius pays. Both series accrete, meaning the principal owed grows over the life of the notes. At maturity, the company repays 110% of the original principal on the 2030 notes and 125% on the 2034s -- an extra $300 million and $500 million on top of the interest.
Add both coupons up, and the cash interest comes to about $105 million a year. The accretion adds roughly $153 million more on average, bringing the real cost to near $258 million a year -- about 19% of trailing revenue, not the 8% the coupons alone suggest. That works out to roughly 3.3% per year on the 2030 notes and 7.5% on the 2034 notes.
If the notes convert, holders could receive about 15.7 million new Class A shares at the initial conversion prices -- close to 6% dilution against the 271.9 million shares outstanding at the end of June, though only if the stock has climbed 40% or more. And even then, Nebius can settle in cash, shares, or a mix.
And some dilution arrives right away. Alongside the new notes, Nebius agreed to exchange $400 million each of its existing 2029 and 2031 convertible notes for about 15.8 million Class A shares, settling the same day. The swap retires old debt but hands a similar number of new shares to noteholders now.
Where the $5 billion goesNebius says the proceeds will fund data center construction and the build-out of its AI cloud platform. The biggest line item is components -- graphics processing units (GPUs) above all.
The spending this supports is enormous relative to the company. Nebius reported second-quarter revenue of $582.3 million, up 454% year over year. Its capital expenditures in the same quarter were about $5.7 billion, nearly 10 times its revenue. At that pace, this week's raise covers roughly a quarter's worth of building.
The company is spending like that because customers keep signing. Annualized run-rate revenue for its AI cloud business reached $3.0 billion at the end of June -- 56% higher than just three months earlier. Nebius closed four deals in the quarter with total contract values averaging more than $1 billion. And it expects more than $9 billion in customer prepayments in 2026.
So the funding stack keeps growing. Nebius ended the quarter holding $8 billion in cash, raised $775 million of secured debt in July, and has $5 billion more arriving when the notes settle. Management is assembling money from every source at once because of what it has promised to build: The company expects to end 2026 with 5 gigawatts of contracted power, a target it has raised repeatedly from just over 1 gigawatt a year ago -- capacity that has to be built before most of it earns anything.
Profitable, with an asteriskNebius produced $236.2 million of adjusted EBITDA in the second quarter. However, depreciation and amortization ran $259.7 million -- larger than the adjusted profit. GPUs wear out and lose value quickly. So whether the growth stays profitable once the full cost of the hardware flows through the income statement matters more, I'd argue, than any single quarter's revenue figure.
Then there's the stock's price: about $220 as of this writing, down from $248.43 just before the offering was proposed. That values the company near $60 billion, about 44 times its trailing revenue and about 20 times the annualized run rate. That's pricey.
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Investors selling this week were likely reacting to the strategy's visible costs. But the less visible cost is that a company spending $5.7 billion a quarter will likely need to raise again, on whatever terms the market offers next time.
The deal itself was well executed, I think. The conversion prices are high, the maturities are long, and the money is committed before it's needed. But the coupons flatter what this costs (and this risks).
Nebius is buying its growth in advance, and the revenue that pays for it hasn't arrived yet.
With all of this said, none of this confirms we're in a bubble. But it certainly confirms there is some exuberance in this market -- and that's certainly one symptom of a bubble.
Nebius Group (NBIS -0.45%) stock plunged 21.1% this week, according to data provided by S&P Global Market Intelligence. That shouldn't bother existing shareholders who have enjoyed the 231% gain in Nebius stock over the past year.
For those who think they missed out on the huge run in Nebius stock, it could be an opportunity, though. Investments in data centers continue to accelerate, and Nebius has customers lined up to use its compute capacity.
Image source: Nebius Group.
Capital spending by the four largest hyperscalers has already reached $300 billion through June this year. That's about 75% of what those same companies spent in all of 2025, according to recent research from The Motley Fool. Some of that money is going to Nebius. The company has generated more than $4.5 billion in net cash from operating activities in the first half of 2026. That compares to over $350 million spent on operations in the year-ago period.
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But the company needs to continue adding capacity to satisfy demand. That's why Nebius announced it would raise $5 billion by issuing convertible notes this week. Shares dropped on the news, as it adds debt and could lead to shareholder dilution should those notes be converted to common stock.
In its second-quarter letter to shareholders, Nebius detailed how growing demand is also increasing the value of its compute capacity. Contract value per megawatt of capacity has soared this year.
Returns on its invested capital look to be growing. That makes dips in the stock a good time to buy shares if investors believe the artificial intelligence infrastructure build-out has several years to go. That, and the stock's already lofty valuation, are the risks one has to balance.
Howard Smith has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Nebius (NBIS -0.45%) is one of the fastest-growing companies in the world.
*Stock prices used were the afternoon prices of Aug. 18, 2026. The video was published on Aug.20, 2026.
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. Parkev Tatevosian is an affiliate of The Motley Fool and may be compensated for promoting its services. If you choose to subscribe through his link, he will earn some extra money that supports his channel. His opinions remain his own and are unaffected by The Motley Fool.
The AI infrastructure boom is moving into a new phase. Demand for computing power is no longer the only constraint; access to electricity, data-center capacity, and financing are becoming just as important. Customers are committing billions of dollars years ahead of delivery, while scarce power supports pricing. For investors, contracted power is becoming a financial asset as much as an operating metric.
Wolfe Research believes Nebius Group (NASDAQ:NBIS | NBIS Price Prediction) can exit 2030 with more than $41 billion of annual recurring revenue (ARR) — nearly 10 times the $4.26 billion ARR shown for the third quarter of 2026 in its model. The thesis is aggressive, but its building blocks are visible.
Power Is Becoming Revenue Nebius just raised its year-end 2026 contracted-power target to 5 gigawatts, up from more than 4 GW. Management said it plans to deploy more than 1 GW annually beginning in 2027, and Reuters reported that the company believes it can sell its 2027 capacity at current terms.
The Wolfe model translates that power ramp into ARR growth: $6.3 billion in fiscal 2026, $13.9 billion in 2027, $22.8 billion in 2028, $31.8 billion in 2029, and $41.2 billion in 2030. That assumes Nebius can repeatedly convert electricity into revenue-producing capacity.
Forget the chips—the real AI war is being fought over electricity. With billions in upfront payments from tech titans, the race to turn raw power into revenue has officially reached a fever pitch. Customers Are Helping Fund the Buildout Nebius’ Q2 2026 shareholder letter said annual contract value per megawatt had climbed above $20 million for Q2 deals and above $40 million for short-term Q3 capacity deals. Four deals averaged more than $1 billion each, while 50% to 60% of their capex was self-financed through customer prepayments.
Nebius’ 2025 annual report provides an example. Microsoft‘s (NASDAQ:MSFT) agreement can generate as much as $17.4 billion through 2031 and includes roughly $7 billion of upfront payments. Meta Platforms‘ (NASDAQ:META) March agreement carried a potential contract value of about $27 billion.
That reduces Nebius’ financing burden while long-duration contracts provide revenue visibility.
The Margin Test Still Matters Admittedly, contracted power is not completed infrastructure. Nebius spent about $5.7 billion on capital expenditures in Q2 alone, according to its shareholder letter, while 2026 revenue guidance remains $3 billion to $3.4 billion.
The company also faces competition from Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA)-powered cloud providers such as CoreWeave (NASDAQ:CRWV). Nebius must turn scarce power into energized capacity quickly enough to preserve returns.
Surprisingly, its Q2 AI cloud adjusted EBITDA margin reached 50%. That gives the model some credibility, but sustaining those economics while adding more than 1 GW annually will be the key test.
Key Takeaway In short, Wolfe’s $41 billion ARR forecast is a high bar, but the math has a foundation. Nebius must convert 5 GW of contracted power into capacity, maintain pricing above $20 million per MW, and keep using customer prepayments to fund growth.
For investors, Nebius is a high-risk, high-upside AI infrastructure bet. The 10x ARR opportunity is worth watching, but the real signal will be whether margins hold as the gigawatts come online.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Nebius Group (NBIS -1.69%) has been an incredible stock to own in 2026. It has risen by more than 220% year to date, and has recovered nearly all of the losses it sustained during July's tech-sector sell-off. Its rise recently has been swift, including a jump of more than 40% in the past few weeks.
The catalyst for that growth? Its second-quarter report. Nebius knocked it out of the park with its results, and management assured investors that its impressive growth rate will likely continue into the near future. And despite its recent rally, there's still plenty of room for the stock to run.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
Nebius's growth rate is among the fastest in the market Nebius operates a neocloud business, which means that it's focused on providing AI-first cloud computing services. The hyperscalers that lead the cloud infrastructure sector have booked a significant backlog of business, and they're trying to get their hands on as much computing power as possible to meet those obligations and turn backlogs into revenues. Some of Nebius's biggest clients are companies that are spending big to build computing infrastructure themselves.
Nebius is rapidly expanding its data center footprint, and has brought several new facilities online throughout 2026. This has led to tremendous growth. In Q2, its revenue rose by 454% year over year, and the rapid growth is not expected to dissipate anytime soon.
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Wall Street expects 446% growth in the third quarter and 526% in the fourth. In 2027, analysts expect 250% growth. By the end of next year, the business will have transformed massively from where it was at the end of 2025.
With big revenue growth still to come, I'm confident that Nebius's stock can continue to do well in the future. It will be hard for most rivals to replicate this kind of growth.
The only red flag I see is Nebius' spending. It's pouring every penny it can get its hands on into its capital expense budget, and it isn't producing any profits. This shouldn't come as a surprise to investors, as Nebius wants to capture market share while it can, but it will eventually have to flip its focus from top-line growth to turning a profit. That won't be easy, and could lead to some headaches for investors when it occurs. But given that the AI build-out doesn't look like it will slow down anytime soon, it may be years before investors start wanting Nebius to shift gears and prove that it can operate its data centers profitably.
There is plenty more upside ahead for Nebius, but investors should still keep an eye on its profitability and where it's trending as the AI build-out phase matures.
Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of NBIS either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.
Nebius Group N.V. (NASDAQ:NBIS) shares are lower Thursday. But that may not be the case for long. They are oversold and at a support level. This could set the stage for a move higher. That’s why Nebius is the Stock of the Day.
Most of the time, a stock stays within its typical or usual range. If aggressive and emotional sellers push the shares below this range, traders say the stock is oversold.
This is important because many trading models are based on the mean-reverting assumption.
Buyers will enter oversold markets because they expect a reversion or a move higher. Their buying could push the price up.
One of the most interesting things about reading charts is their fractal nature. The same patterns can be seen on charts of different time horizons.
This is because charts illustrate the psychology of people trading different timeframes. Regardless of the timeframe of the strategies, the traders all experience the same emotions.
These emotions are what can be seen on a chart.
On the bottom of the Nebiuo Chart, there are two examples of the Relative Strength Index (RSI). This is a common tool that is used to determine if a stock is oversold. It measures how much it has moved from time period A to B.
The one at the top uses 14 time periods. This is the default setting. Within this time horizon, the shares are not considered to be oversold.
The indicator on the bottom is measuring the movement in between just 3 time periods. Within this horizon, Nebius is considered to be oversold.
There may be support around $220. People who sold around that level regretted doing so when the resistance was broken. Now that the shares have dropped back to their selling prices, buyers are placing buy orders, creating support.
The fractal nature of charts is an amazing phenomenon. In fact, if the dates and times were removed from a chart, it would be impossible to know which time periods it covers.
There is a chance Nebius moves higher from here.
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Image: Shutterstock
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Today’s selling in AI cloud is concentrated in the names that ran furthest into the summer, with a fresh financing from one issuer doing most of the damage.
Nebius Group (NASDAQ:NBIS | NBIS Price Prediction) stock is down 4% to $214.80 midday Thursday after pricing a $5 billion convertible note offering overnight. Cloudflare (NYSE:NET) stock is down 3% to $282.75 on read-through concerns about dilutive AI financing.
Snowflake (NYSE:SNOW) shares are down 2% to $319.85. Meanwhile, CoreWeave (NASDAQ:CRWV) stock is down only 1% to $89.68.
The Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ) is down 0.5% to $712.44, providing broad NASDAQ 100 context, while cloud software as a group has essentially matched the index this year trades at $40.31.
One Winner Giving Back After Its Financing The Invesco QQQ Trust is up 17% YTD up 16%, and cloud software as a group has essentially matched the broad Nasdaq this year, so the framing here matters. This is a crowded winner giving back after a financing, and narrow-basket cloud exposure is one reason drawdowns can feel amplified when a marquee holding stumbles.
Set that against Nebius Group stock’s 167% YTD gain, and today’s selling looks concentrated in the names that ran furthest. Cloudflare stock is up 48% YTD, Snowflake stock is up 48%, and CoreWeave stock is up 27%. Investors holding narrow thematic exposure to cloud names also carry concentration risk that comes with a small, focused basket.
Nebius Prices a $5 Billion Convertible Nebius Group priced a $5 billion senior unsecured convertible note offering Wednesday, upsized from $4.5 billion. The deal comprises $3 billion of 0.5% notes due 2030 and $2 billion of 4.5% notes due 2034, with expected net proceeds of $4.94 billion. Those 2030 notes carry an initial conversion price of $313.46 per Class A share, a 40% premium to Nebius Group’s August 19 closing price of $223.90.
Alongside the offering, Nebius Group agreed to exchange $400 million of 2% notes due 2029 and $400 million of 3% notes due 2031 with a limited group of holders, who will receive 15.8 million Class A shares. In its own disclosure, the company said related sales or hedge transactions could weigh on its share price. That statement is the cleanest explanation for today’s move.
Proceeds from the Nebius Group offering are earmarked for data center construction, additional sites, GPU procurement, and development of its AI cloud platform (we profiled seven of the suppliers powering exactly this kind of buildout, from power to cooling, in a free report you can grab here). Splitting the deal into two tranches balances coupon load and maturity between a low-yield 2030 note and a higher-yield 2034 note, spreading refinancing risk while giving convertible arbitrage desks room to hedge.
Why CoreWeave Isn’t Falling the Same Way Both Nebius Group and CoreWeave finance AI capacity through convertible debt, and both build hyperscaler-class GPU infrastructure. The difference today is what’s on the tape. Nebius Group has a fresh $5 billion deal with disclosed hedging pressure, while CoreWeave has nothing company-specific driving flows.
That gap isolates the convertible as the driver of today’s move. Cloudflare stock and Snowflake stock are drifting on read-through from the Nebius deal, and both still trade well above where they started the year. CoreWeave stock, despite similar capital intensity in its business model, is holding within its recent range.
In the options tape, Nebius Group’s full-chain put/call ratio sits at 1.28, tilted toward puts around the deal. Broader cloud names remain calmer at the front of the curve, which reinforces the read that this is an issuer-specific event rather than a rotation out of the cohort.
What to Watch Now Convertible financing is a recurring feature for capital-intensive AI cloud builders, so dilution and hedge-related selling pressure tend to return rather than passing as one-time events. Investors sizing new positions in Nebius Group after a 167% YTD run should assume more of these financings ahead and moderate accordingly.
Traders can watch for follow-on issuance activity across the AI cloud cohort into month-end. Any capped-call disclosures from Nebius Group could shape the next leg for the stock, and follow-through in Cloudflare stock and Snowflake stock may indicate whether the read-through has legs beyond one session.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Nebius Group is rated a buy due to innovative pricing, strong management, and significant revenue visibility. NBIS posted 454% YoY revenue growth, a 41% EBITDA margin, and leverages customer prepayments to fund capex efficiently. Contracting strategy enables premium pricing and rapid payback, with Meta's $27B agreement providing major forward revenue visibility.
Key Takeaways Super Micro's scale, lower valuation and positive estimate revisions give it an edge over Nebius. Nebius' Q2 revenue surged 454% to $582 million, while its contracted backlog reached $40 billion.Super Micro targets fiscal 2027 revenue of $65-$72 billion, supported by record backlog and AI demand. Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS - Free Report) and Super Micro Computer (SMCI - Free Report) are two key players benefiting from the rapid expansion of artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure. Nebius is scaling its AI cloud platform and computing capacity to serve AI developers and enterprises, while Super Micro provides the servers, liquid-cooling systems, networking and data-center solutions needed to support large-scale AI deployments. As demand for AI computing continues to rise, both companies are positioned to capture a meaningful share of this spending.
However, the two stocks offer very different investment profiles. Nebius is growing from a smaller base and is posting explosive revenue gains as it expands capacity, while Super Micro operates at a much larger scale with tens of billions of dollars in annual revenues and a sizable order backlog. Comparing their growth prospects, profitability, financial position and execution risks can help determine which AI infrastructure stock looks like the better buy.
Let’s evaluate their fundamentals, growth prospects, market challenges and valuations to determine which one presents a stronger investment opportunity.
The Case for NBISNebius is benefiting from strong demand for AI cloud capacity, supported by growing requirements from AI-native companies, new AI labs and enterprises. In the second quarter, the company closed four landmark deals averaging more than $1 billion each, while its contracted backlog reached $40 billion. Management also noted that it could sell its entire planned 2027 capacity under current terms, highlighting the strength of demand and providing visibility into future growth.
Another positive factor is Nebius’ ability to improve monetization and expand capacity. The company launched a capacity auction that cleared at a price 15% above its previous highest level, while short-term capacity deals are being negotiated at significantly higher prices. Nebius also raised its year-end contracted power target to 5 gigawatts and expects to deploy more than 1 gigawatt of new capacity annually starting in 2027. Its asset-light partnership model could further support expansion by allowing partners to finance and operate infrastructure while Nebius provides its platform and customer demand.
Nebius is also seeing strong growth across revenue, profitability and AI-related services. Second-quarter revenue increased 454% year over year to $582 million, while annualized run-rate revenue reached $3 billion, up 598%. Growth was supported by additional capacity, higher utilization, the asset-light model, Token Factory and recent acquisitions. The company also expects increasing contributions from inference, agentic AI and other high-margin services as customers expand AI workloads across training, post-training and inference.
For 2026, Nebius reaffirmed annualized run-rate revenue guidance of $7 billion to $9 billion, Group revenue of $3 billion to $3.4 billion, Group adjusted EBITDA margin of approximately 40% and capital expenditures of $20 billion to $25 billion. The company expects to deploy significantly more capacity in 2027, while 2027 formal guidance will be provided later this year.
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However, the rapid capacity expansion requires substantial capital investment, which could affect Nebius’ financial flexibility. Capital expenditures reached approximately $5.7 billion in the second quarter, mainly due to GPU purchases, GPU-related hardware and data center expansion. The company expects full-year 2026 capital expenditures of $20-$25 billion as it continues scaling capacity, making access to sufficient funding important for its growth plans.
Nebius also faces potential delays related to data center development and the time required to convert connected power into revenue. The company noted broader debates around data centers in the United States, while its Vineland, NJ, project still requires final approval for an amended site layout. In addition, connected power must go through data center commissioning, network and cluster deployment, platform installation and customer onboarding before revenue generation begins, creating a gap between capacity coming online and its contribution to revenue.
The Case for SMCISuper Micro is benefiting from strong demand for AI infrastructure, with the company reporting more than $60 billion in new orders during the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026. Revenue nearly doubled year over year to $39.1 billion for fiscal 2026, while the company ended the year with record backlog levels. Management expects this momentum to continue, targeting fiscal 2027 revenue of $65 billion to $72 billion as customers continue investing in AI and data center infrastructure.
SMCI is gaining from the expanding portfolio of total data center solutions. Its DCBBS offering integrates GPU and CPU servers, storage, direct liquid cooling, networking, switches, data center management software and services, allowing customers to build and scale AI data centers more quickly. The company is also expanding its product lineup across NVIDIA, AMD and Intel platforms, while developing solutions for agentic AI, inference and other high-performance workloads.
SMCI is also working to improve profitability through customer and product diversification. Enterprise and channel revenue increased 172% year over year in the fourth quarter, while the company added more than 1 billion-dollar customers during fiscal 2026. Management is placing greater emphasis on enterprise, CPU-based servers, storage and IoT products, which generally carry higher margins than high-volume GPU products. The growing DCBBS business, including hardware, software and services, is also expected to support better long-term profitability.
For the first quarter of fiscal 2027, Super Micro expects net sales of $14.5-$15.5 billion. For full-year fiscal 2027, it expects net sales of $65-$72 billion compared with $39.1 billion in fiscal 2026. The outlook reflects continued AI infrastructure demand, record backlog and increasing contributions from enterprise, sovereign AI, NeoCloud and agentic AI opportunities.
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However, customer readiness and infrastructure constraints could affect the timing of revenue recognition. Fourth-quarter revenue of $11.1 billion was near the low end of guidance because some customers faced delays related to power, cooling, networking and overall data center readiness. Management expects some of the delayed revenue to be recognized in subsequent quarters, but such deployment delays can create quarter-to-quarter fluctuations in revenue and product mix.
Inventory and working-capital requirements also affect SMCI. The company's cash conversion cycle increased to 149 days in the fourth quarter, while inventory rose to $12.9 billion as it prepared for higher fiscal 2027 revenue. Management also acknowledged risks associated with rapid GPU platform transitions, noting that changes in technology or customer deployment schedules could create inventory exposure. Although the company is using noncancelable purchase orders and aligning procurement with shipment schedules, managing inventory remains important as the business scales.
Share Performance for NBIS & SMCIIn the past three months, NBIS stock has gained 1.8% while SMCI soared 9.3%.
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Valuation for NBIS & SMCIIn terms of Price/Book, NBIS shares are trading at 5.48X, higher than SMCI’s 2.15X.
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How Do Estimates Compare for NBIS & SMCI?Over the past 60 days, analysts have lowered estimates for NBIS’ bottom line for the current year.
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For SMCI, estimates have been revised upward over the past 60 days.
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NBIS or SMCI: Which Stock is the Better Investment?Super Micro benefits from a much larger revenue base, record backlog, strong fiscal 2027 growth expectations and improving exposure to higher-margin enterprise and data-center solutions. It also trades at a lower Price/Book multiple than NBIS, while earnings estimates have moved upward over the past 60 days.
Although Nebius offers impressive growth prospects, its heavy capital spending, execution risks and downward earnings estimate revisions make its risk-reward profile less attractive. Therefore, SMCI’s scale, valuation and positive estimate trends give it an edge over NBIS right now.
Both NBIS and SMCI currently carry a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Nebius Group N.V. (âNebius Groupâ or the âCompanyâ; NASDAQ: NBIS), the AI cloud company, today announced the pricing of its offering of $5.0 billion agg
AMSTERDAM--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Nebius Group N.V. (“Nebius Group” or the “Company”; NASDAQ: NBIS), the AI cloud company, today announced the pricing of its offering of $5.0 billion aggregate original principal amount of convertible senior notes, in two series: $3.0 billion aggregate original principal amount of 0.50% convertible notes due 2030 (the “2030 Notes”) and $2.0 billion aggregate original principal amount of 4.50% convertible notes due 2034 (the “2034 Notes”, and together with the 2030 Not.
Nebius Group (NBIS -9.87%), an AI-focused cloud infrastructure provider, closed at $223.51, down 10.03%. Shares fell after Nebius announced a proposed $4.5 billion convertible-note offering. Investors will be closely monitoring the company's financing needs as it rapidly scales to meet unprecedented demand for AI. Trading volume reached 48.8M shares, coming in about 129% above its three-month average of 21.3M shares.
How the markets moved todayS&P 500 (^GSPC +0.21%) rose 0.21% to 7,708, while the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC +0.16%) added 0.16% to 26,331. Among AI cloud infrastructure and data-center services peers, CoreWeave (CRWV -2.47%) fell 2.47% to $90.87, while Oracle (ORCL +0.71%) gained 0.72% to $143.82, underscoring mixed sentiment across the group.
What this means for investorsUp-and-coming neocloud Nebius announced a $4.5 billion convertible note offering today, with $2.75 billion due in 2030, $1.75 billion due in 2034, and an option to buy $675 million in additional notes. Nebius shares sank 10% today on the news, as the major transaction will likely be dilutive to shareholders over the short term, but will provide the company with valuable cash to build out its AI infrastructure.
Currently, customer demand has not yet reached its peak, so Nebius wants to scale as quickly as possible to meet it and take a leadership position in its niche. The company just posted 454% sales growth in its latest quarter, so this convertible note offering makes sense to meet staggering demand. That said -- and much like the Magnificent Seven and their massive capex spending -- the music will stop at some point in this game of musical chairs, so investors will want to monitor Nebius (and all the stocks tied up in the AI boom) to make sure they don't expand too quickly and wreck their long-term financial health.
Josh Kohn-Lindquist has positions in Nebius Group. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Oracle. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Nebius Group (NBIS) shares fell about 10% on Wednesday after the AI infrastructure company outlined a $4.5 billion convertible debt offering to support its expa
Nebius Group (NASDAQ:NBIS) shares are trading lower on Wednesday as the company disclosed an offering of $4.50 billion in convertible senior notes.
• Nebius Group shares are retreating from recent levels. What’s pressuring NBIS stock?
Convertible Notes OfferingThe company plans to offer $4.50 billion of convertible senior notes in a private placement, comprising $2.75 billion of 2030 Notes and $1.75 billion of 2034 Notes.
Initial purchasers may also buy up to an additional $375 million of 2030 Notes and $300 million of 2034 Notes within 13 days of issuance, subject to market and other conditions.
The company intends to use the proceeds to fund data center construction and expansion, develop its full-stack AI cloud, purchase key components including GPUs and for general corporate purposes.
Alongside the offering, Nebius expects to negotiate exchanges of portions of its existing 2029 and 2031 convertible notes for Class A shares with select holders.
The terms will depend on factors including the share price and trading prices of the existing notes.
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NBIS Technical Analysis: Key Support, Resistance and MomentumThe stock’s current price of $227.61 is 1.9% below its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) of $222.86, indicating a bearish short-term trend. The 20-day SMA is 3.2% above the current price, suggesting recent price action has been volatile, with potential resistance around $230, a level where rebounds could stall.
The primary momentum indicator, the RSI, is currently at 50.03, indicating a neutral stance in terms of momentum. This suggests that the stock is neither overbought nor oversold at this time, reflecting a balance in buying and selling pressure.
Key Resistance: $230 — Nearby level where rebounds can stall. Key Support: $200.50 — Nearby level where buyers previously stepped in. NBIS Earnings Preview and Analyst Price TargetsLooking further out, the next major catalyst for the stock arrives with the Nov. 10 (estimated) earnings report.
Revenue Estimate: $903.49 million (Up from $146.10 million) Analyst Consensus & Recent Actions: The stock carries a Buy rating with a consensus price forecast of $227. Recent analyst moves include:
DA Davidson: Neutral (Raises Target to $250 on Aug. 18) Citigroup: Buy (Raises Target to $324 on Aug. 14) DA Davidson: Neutral (Maintains Target to $175 on Aug. 13) How Nebius (NBIS) Ranks On Value and MomentumBelow is the Benzinga Edge scorecard for Nebius, highlighting its strengths and weaknesses compared to the broader market:
Value: 3.52 — Stock is trading at a premium relative to peers. Momentum: 98.68 — Stock is outperforming the broader market. The Verdict: Nebius’s Benzinga Edge signal reveals a momentum-driven story, indicating strong performance compared to the broader market despite a weak value ranking. Investors should monitor upcoming earnings and the implications of the convertible notes offering closely.
NBIS ETF Exposure: Funds with the Biggest Weighting Leverage Shares 2X Long NBIS Daily ETF (NASDAQ:NBIG): 111.60% Weight Significance: Because Nebius carries such a heavy weight in these funds, any significant inflows or outflows for these ETFs will likely trigger automatic buying or selling of the stock.
NBIS Stock Price Today: Latest Trading UpdateNBIS Stock Price Activity: Nebius Group shares were down 7.74% at $229.19 at the time of publication on Wednesday, according to Benzinga Pro data.
Nebius Group (NBIS -12.17%) stock turned sharply lower today, falling as much as 14%. As of 12:49 p.m. ET, the stock was still down 7.6%.
The catalyst that sent the artificial intelligence (AI) and neocloud specialist lower was news that the company is raising capital.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
Show me the money In a press release that dropped on Wednesday, Nebius announced its latest bid to raise capital. The proposed private offering of $4.5 billion in convertible senior notes will fund the company's ongoing data center build-out. The company plans to sell $2.75 billion in notes due in 2030, with another $1.75 billion due in 2034.
However, it was another announcement buried within the press release that sent the stock lower. Nebius announced plans to enter into a number of "privately negotiated transactions" to exchange a limited number of its existing 2029 notes for Class A shares. As management noted in the announcement, the resulting dilution "could decrease the market price" of its shares.
Nebius Group has been growing like wildfire. The neocloud operator builds data centers stocked with the world's most capable graphics processing units (GPUs) and other AI chips, providing its customers with the computational horsepower needed for AI processing. Demand for its services currently outstrips supply by a wide margin, so the company is building as quickly as it can.
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In the second quarter, Nebius's revenue surged 454% year over year to $582 million, while reducing its adjusted net loss to $33 million, down from $92 million in the year-ago quarter. Moreover, the company's full-year forecast calls for revenue of between $3 billion and $3.4 billion, or growth of 466% at the midpoint of its guidance.
To maintain its blistering growth, Nebius is scrambling to raise capital for the next stage of its build-out. We don't yet know the extent of the dilution to existing shareholders, which is fueling today's knee-jerk reaction.
This is Nebius Group's third capital raise of the year, and it likely won't be the last. The magnitude of the funds the company needs for data center construction will only increase. This, in turn, is driving Nebius's triple-digit growth. It's also worth noting that even after today's sell-off, the stock is still up 174% so far this year.
The volatility is part of the cost of entry for owning this stock.
Danny Vena, CPA has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
