Akcie společnosti Nebius za poslední měsíc klesly o 32,59 % poté, co Gartner předpověděl, že do roku 2030 ukončí samostatnou činnost více než 80 % poskytovatelů necloudových služeb.
A Gartner forecast just sparked a brutal selloff that wiped nearly half of Nebius Group's value from its peak, yet one Wall Street firm now sees shares more than doubling from here. The question is whether the neocloud model survives…
Nebius Group (NASDAQ:NBIS | NBIS Price Prediction) trades at $159.17, and Wall Street’s average price target is $283.60. That implies about 78% upside to where analysts think the shares should trade.
Nebius leases NVIDIA GPU capacity to AI labs and enterprises. Its Nebius AI Cloud segment brought in $574.9M last quarter, up 514% year over year. Hyperscale contracts with Meta and Microsoft helped build $37.49B in remaining performance obligations, which is why the Street keeps such close watch on the stock.
Northland Securities holds the Street-high target of $410.00, roughly 2.58x the current price. With implied upside above 40%, analyst targets frame the outlook for the stock.
Neocloud Extinction Fears Drive a Steep Monthly Sell-Off A Gartner forecast set off the latest wave of selling. It predicted that “cost pressure and a lack of a differentiating business model will force over 80% of neocloud providers to cease independent operations” by 2030. Nebius has fallen 32.59% in the past month. It lost 15.52% in the past week alone. The stock now sits about 47% below its 52-week high of $299.86.
The damage hit the whole sector. Rate-hike fears hit the AI debt market at the same time, according to 24/7 Wall St. coverage. DA Davidson’s Gil Luria said Nebius and CoreWeave (NASDAQ:CRWV) “literally sell the same thing to the same companies,” so investors are questioning the neocloud model as a whole.
The last quarter itself held up. Revenue of $582.3M beat the $574.65M consensus. Even so, the operating loss reached $175.9M, first-half capex reached $8.13B, and three customers made up 24%, 21%, and 14% of revenue.
Northland’s $410 Target Rests on 2027 Pricing Power Of the 21 analysts tracked, 2 rate it Strong Buy, 12 Buy, 5 Hold, 1 Sell, and 1 Strong Sell. Northland’s Nehal Chokshi keeps an Outperform rating, and BNP Paribas Exane’s Stefan Slowinski holds a $399.00 target. Northland’s thesis centers on the company’s data center buildout across Europe and North America, early access to next-generation NVIDIA GPUs, and multiple expansion as markets price Nebius as a pure-play AI cloud operator.
The near-term marker is full-year guidance, which management reaffirmed: revenue of $3 billion to $3.4 billion, annualized run-rate revenue of $7 billion to $9 billion, and roughly 40% adjusted EBITDA margin. Analysts expect third-quarter revenue of about $904.8 million.
CEO Arkady Volozh said Nebius “could sell today our entire 2027 capacity on these terms if we wanted to.” Short-duration deals are being set at $40 million to $50 million per megawatt, and the contracted power target rose to 5 gigawatts. Management says formal 2027 guidance comes later this year.
Price targets are estimates and carry no guarantee. All of this depends on Nebius bringing capacity online on schedule while capital markets stay open.
CoreWeave and Oracle Fell Too, With Even Wider Gaps The whole peer group sold off together, and Nebius carries the lowest implied upside of the three.
CoreWeave trades at $55.60 after falling 36.02% in a month. Its $138.34 target implies about 149% upside. Of 42 analysts, 8 rate it Strong Buy and 23 Buy, and Goldman Sachs recently upgraded it to Buy. Its 8.94 debt-to-equity ratio explains part of the discount.
Oracle (NYSE:ORCL) trades at $125.54, down 13.16% in a month. Its $237.36 target implies roughly 89% upside. Of 43 analysts, 7 rate it Strong Buy and 28 Buy.
CoreWeave holds the largest analyst-implied upside. Nebius looks like the group’s relative winner, priced with less distress than its peers.
Nebius Is Still Up 90% This Year Despite the Drawdown At $159.17, Nebius trades with about 78% implied upside to the $283.60 consensus from 21 analysts. Shares are down 27.97% over three months but still up 90.16% year to date.
The S&P 500 has gained 12.05% year to date and slipped 1.21% over the past month. Nebius trades at about 46x forward earnings.
Backlog Supports the Upside, but Dilution Caps the Ceiling The bull case strengthens if the 2027 pricing Volozh described holds and the third-quarter report confirms new capacity is turning into revenue. That path leads back toward the consensus target.
The bear case gains weight if Gartner’s consolidation call is right. Convertible debt with a fair value of $20.8B, $12.1B in upcoming lease obligations, and ongoing share sales could dilute holders even if revenue keeps growing.
I lean positive. The backlog looks durable, and management guides to roughly 40% adjusted EBITDA margin. The $410 target needs everything to go right, though, so the consensus figure is the more realistic benchmark. Nebius is one of several picks-and-shovels names riding the data-center buildout, and we rounded up seven more in a free report on AI infrastructure stocks that aren’t chipmakers.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Nebius získal od Citi úvěrovou linku ve výši 3,5 miliardy USD na rozvoj datových center a nákup GPU. Splatnost činí 364 dní, úroková sazba je SOFR + 2,75 %.
AI cloud services firm Nebius (NBIS.O) on Thursday said it had secured a $3.5 billion financing facility from Citi to fund continued development of its data centres and GPU purchases as it races to expand capacity.
The announcement comes against the backdrop of a selloff in shares last week related to AI infrastructure, after bonds issued by rival CoreWeave fell sharply in value. CoreWeave is usually grouped with Nebius as among the top "neocloud" firms that are building data centres specialized for AI.
The new Nebius facility matures in 364 days and carries an initial interest rate of 2.75% over the term SOFR benchmark rate.
The Amsterdam-based company said the financing would give it greater flexibility over the timing and structure of further fundraising to support growth in 2027 and beyond. Its funding sources also include customer prepayments and operating cash flow.
Chief Operating Officer Ophir Nave said Nebius had other financing options available, including borrowing against more than $40 billion in long-term contracts with investment-grade customers, which include Microsoft (MSFT.O) and Meta (META.O) .
"This facility provides additional financing to support our near-term capacity build-out," Nave said in a statement. The company has around $10 billion in convertible bond debt outstanding following a $5.75 billion issue in August.
BERLIN — Nebius is seeing AI computing prices rise more than expected, a top executive told CNBC on Wednesday, offering a bullish view as neocloud firms' business model comes under increasing scrutiny.
Investors have grown wary after CoreWeave, one of the biggest neocloud players, saw the spread on its five-year credit default swaps hit levels generally viewed as signs of distress. The yields on CoreWeave's bonds also climbed.
The CoreWeave developments and questions around the amount of debt being used to fund the data center buildout have weighed heavily on other neoclouds like Iren and Nebius, whose stocks have dropped sharply over the last month.
Marc Boroditsky, chief revenue officer at Nebius, said his company wasn't in CoreWeave's position because "we're not carrying the kind of debt that they are."
He also said that if the AI infrastructure company brought its 2027 capacity online, it would sell out. There could be "the same type of dynamic" in 2028, supporting a positive longer-term demand outlook, he said, as companies race to secure access to computing power.
When asked whether he sees the price per megawatt continuing to rise ahead of expectations, Boroditsky replied: "Yeah."
Nebius is among a new wave of Neocloud companies that are investing billions to buy up Nvidia's graphics processing units, build data centers and rent that capacity.
Nebius ran an auction for computing capacity on Tuesday, which showed continued price rises, the revenue chief said. "We're seeing continued upward mobility in terms of the kind of price per megawatt," he told CNBC.
Price per megawatt, a key measure among new cloud companies, shows how much a company can charge customers for a certain amount of computing capacity.
Chase Lochmiller, CEO of Crusoe, an Nvidia-backed AI company that is building data centers, was also bullish on pricing, saying the company was seeing rising prices for GPUs, including older Nvidia chips.
watch now
"We're seeing higher pricing today for A100s than we saw in 2020 or 2021. We're seeing higher pricing for H100s than what we saw when they were first deployed in 2023," Lochmiller said.
"There's tremendous demand and a lot of it is because the underlying model capabilities have gotten so much more advanced that people are just creating so much more value out of the compute infrastructure."
The comments come amid an investor debate over how quickly Nvidia's GPUs lose their economic value as more powerful chips enter the market.
The ability to continue renting out older chips at attractive prices is crucial to AI infrastructure companies that need to recover their investments and generate profits, while spending billions on GPUs.
Lochmiller's comments suggest that, at least for Crusoe, older generations of Nvidia chips are commanding higher rental prices than when they were first deployed, potentially strengthening the economics of its AI cloud business.
SpaceX boostNebius stock rose on Wednesday after SpaceX reported revenue at its AI business jumped ninefold to $7.56 billion. SpaceX CFO Bret Johnsen said pricing is "currently tracking slightly above the high end of the $30 to $50 per watt range," underscoring the pricing power for those renting out compute capacity.
Cloud providers CoreWeave, Iren, and Applied Digital also rose in premarket trading on Wednesday following Johnsen's comments.
Nebius, Coreweave and Applied Digital shares over the past day.
"I'm thrilled by SpaceX's results. It's confirming what we already know, which is that it's a very dynamic market and that supply continues to fall far behind demand," Boroditsky said.
Nebius Group (NBIS +0.71%) is one of the most talked-about AI companies, especially after its stock more than quadrupled within a year. The Dutch tech business has pulled back recently as investors have rotated out of AI stocks.
Now that the company's share price has dipped, let's see if Nebius could be the millionaire-maker investors are hoping for.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
The growth has been there so far. Nebius reported revenue of $582.3 million in Q2 2026, an impressive 454% year-over-year increase. Annualized run rate revenue (ARR) reached $3 billion at the end of June, up from $1.9 billion at the end of March, and management is expecting $7 billion to $9 billion in ARR this year.
Total customer commitments exceeding $40 billion support management's projections. Anchor customers include hyperscalers spending the most on AI, such as Microsoft and Meta Platforms.
High-growth companies often come with more risk, and that's the case with Nebius. It's completely reliant on the AI build-out, as about 98% of its revenue comes from AI cloud sales. It's a capital-intensive business with massive spending requirements, and capital expenditures (capex) were $5.7 billion in Q2 2026, nearly 10 times its revenue that quarter. Even after the recent dip, it still trades at about 34 times trailing sales (as of Oct. 19).
NBIS Nebius Group$171.45+$1.21 (+0.71%)
NASDAQ · As of 4:00 PM ET 10/20/26
There's no strict definition of a millionaire-maker stock, but my rule of thumb is a potential 100-bagger that could turn a $10,000 investment into $1 million. That's highly unlikely for Nebius, because it would need to go from a market cap of $46 billion to $4.6 trillion. The AI cloud company is still worth considering if you're looking for investments with explosive growth potential, as long as you're prepared for volatility and go in with reasonable expectations.
Lyle Daly has positions in Meta Platforms and Nebius Group. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Meta Platforms and Microsoft. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
BERLIN--(BUSINESS WIRE)--NVIDIA GTC--Nebius (Nasdaq: NBIS), the AI cloud company, today announced public live spot pricing for GPU compute, giving teams greater visibility and control over their compute costs.
AI teams are increasingly experimenting, training and running production services at the same time. Each calls for a different way to access and use compute capacity. Nebius is expanding its portfolio of pricing mechanisms to meet these needs, as part of its vision to promote an open market for compute.
Alongside live preemptible spot pricing, reserve auctions offer defined capacity blocks for short-term compute needs, while pay-as-you-go enables access to compute on demand without a fixed-term reservation. Nebius is also piloting a capacity-rebate program that enables customers to recover value by releasing idle GPUs back into the spot capacity pool.
Arkady Volozh, founder and CEO of Nebius, said:
“Companies should be able to see what compute costs and access it on terms that fit their work. We are combining that flexibility with the infrastructure, software and engineering expertise that AI builders in Europe and around the world need to turn ideas into products that can compete globally.”
Nico Caprez, VP AI Infrastructure Growth at NVIDIA, said:
“NVIDIA AI infrastructure is productive, durable and fungible across models, workloads and customers. Transparent pricing and flexible access help AI companies put that infrastructure to work on terms that fit their needs. Nebius is helping connect available capacity with growing AI demand, keeping AI factories productive and giving Europe’s AI builders more ways to scale.”
Nebius is working with the ecosystem to make live pricing more widely available. Public live pricing for Spot PVMs is available now at nebius.com/spot-prices and on Shadeform, Silicon Data and GPU Finder.
Europe’s most ambitious AI leaders build on Nebius
Nebius is bringing AI compute online across a European capacity footprint that currently spans Finland, France, the UK, Spain, Estonia and Iceland, with a pipeline of potential future deployments under evaluation.
Across the continent, digital enterprises and AI natives are building models and products with global ambition on Nebius — from personal finance and e-commerce platforms to understanding disease, developing world models, and deploying industrial robots.
In Germany, Black Forest Labs used Nebius’s NVIDIA B200 infrastructure for the research behind Self-Flow, a training method that became foundational to its FLUX 3 models.
Sandeep Mandala, Head of Engineering, Black Forest Labs: “Training frontier visual intelligence models depends on infrastructure that holds up under sustained load. Nebius has been a dependable part of that foundation for Black Forest Labs.”
Nebius is also strengthening its presence in Germany as a compute supplier for the Next Frontier AI Challenge of SPRIND, the Federal Agency for Breakthrough Innovation.
In France, Advanced Machine Intelligence uses Nebius compute and storage for research into world models. Paris-based Photoroom uses Nebius infrastructure and engineering support to develop commercial image-editing models.
Alex LeBrun, co-founder and CEO of Advanced Machine Intelligence: “We are building AI that can understand the physical world, anticipate the consequences of actions and plan. That ambition requires infrastructure that lets researchers test new approaches at scale. Nebius provides the compute and storage behind our research, helping us develop world models with potential applications across industry, robotics and healthcare.”
In the UK, Prima Mente has trained its biological foundation models on Nebius to discover new biomarkers for early detection and new hypotheses for novel drug targets for Alzheimer’s and other neurodegenerative diseases.
Hannah Madan, co-founder and COO of Prima Mente: “The future of brain care we're building is one where our parents have impactful treatments, those in our generation can detect disease earlier and do something about it, and our children never have to worry.”
In the Netherlands, Prosus uses Nebius Token Factory for high-volume open-model workloads supporting its lifestyle and e-commerce businesses.
Euro Beinat, Chief AI Officer, Prosus: “Our AI systems need to be reliable and economical in production. With Nebius Token Factory, we have doubled throughput, while autoscaling helps us handle peaks without holding GPU capacity in reserve. Combined with Nebius AI Cloud for training and fine-tuning, this gives us better economics and room to scale.”
Neobank bunq’s agentic assistant Finn now runs on open weight models. Powered by NVIDIA accelerated computing, deploying on Nebius matches the quality of leading closed models at 60% of the cost per answer.
In Switzerland, Zurich-based Jua trained and refined its Earth Physics Transformer on Nebius to deliver hourly global weather forecasts for energy markets.
European scientific AI and healthcare pioneers running on Nebius include Portugal-founded Sword Health, which worked with Nebius engineers to scale Dawn, its mental health AI conversational assistant, on dedicated NVIDIA Blackwell infrastructure.
Basecamp Research trained EDEN on Nebius with 28 billion parameters and 9.7 trillion nucleotide tokens to design programmable medicines. Inherent Labs used Nebius infrastructure to post-train Faraday, an AI scientist agent that learns to replicate published research as a step towards more autonomous scientific discovery.
European robotics and physical AI companies including Sereact and NormaCore are leveraging Nebius to run the full physical AI development cycle. Nebius today announced the addition of agentic workflows to its Physical AI Workbench, with customers reporting reductions in engineering time of up to 40%.
Empowering Europe’s AI builders to compete globally
From its headquarters in Amsterdam, Nebius supports the entire European AI ecosystem.
The Nebius AI Builder Program is expanding across Europe with an additional $10 million in compute grants, as well as founder funding opportunities and hands-on community programs.
Nebius works with communities including {Tech: Europe} and AI Tinkerers to connect builders through hack days, demo days and technical training. For GTC, Nebius Berlin Build Week culminated in a hackathon with NVIDIA, using NVIDIA Nemotron open models on Nebius infrastructure.
The company’s education and research arm, Nebius Academy, is collaborating with NVIDIA Deep Learning Institute to launch an education collaboration at GTC Berlin to expand hands-on AI training for developers. Nebius also provides compute grants to support cutting-edge research in AI and AI-driven science.
Building the cloud for production AI with NVIDIA
Nebius AI Cloud is designed and built as one integrated system, combining NVIDIA accelerated computing and networking with Nebius custom servers and software, including ML native tooling and managed inference.
A fast-growing partner ecosystem gives customers more ways to integrate Nebius into their existing stack, deploy and manage production AI applications, and purchase through trusted technology, services, and channel providers.
Nebius and NVIDIA are collaborating to scale the next generation of hyperscale AI cloud across the full AI technology stack — from AI factory design and deployment to co-building the inference and agentic stack and taking customers into production. This collaboration supports early adoption of new computing architectures and optimisation across hardware and software.
Nebius’s AI infrastructure leverages successive generations of NVIDIA accelerated computing and reference architectures including the NVIDIA DSX™ AI Factory Platform.
Nebius was among the first AI clouds to bring up and validate NVIDIA Vera Rubin NVL72 rack-scale systems, delivering inference with up to 30x more throughput per watt, and up to 45x lower token cost and training with one-fourth the GPUs.
It is also the first AI cloud to adopt NVIDIA Groq 3 LPX and will be an early deployer of NVIDIA Vera CPUs for agentic workloads. NVIDIA Groq 3 LPX is the inference accelerator designed for the low latency and large context demands of agentic systems. NVIDIA Vera is the CPU for agents, delivering 80% faster agentic CPU performance for longer-thinking agents, faster-learning RL systems, and data-driven AI factories.
The companies’ engineers work together to optimize inference across hardware and software, translating new architectures into greater capacity for production AI. This co-engineering delivers performance that is validated by independent evaluations and benchmarks.
Nebius holds NVIDIA Exemplar Cloud recognition for training workloads on NVIDIA HGX B300, NVIDIA GB300 NVL72 and NVIDIA HGX H200, and Platinum status in SemiAnalysis’s ClusterMAX rating of AI clouds. Nebius regularly achieves top MLPerf results across training, inference and storage.
Nebius supports an approach to AI safety, outlined in the NVIDIA OpenShell Reference Architecture, which combines software and hardware safeguards with clear boundaries around what agents can access and do, continuous monitoring, and the ability to interrupt, correct or stop their actions when needed.
About Nebius
Nebius, the AI cloud company, is building the full-stack platform for developers and companies to take charge of their AI future — from data and model training to production deployment. Founded on deep in-house technological expertise and operating at scale with a rapidly expanding global footprint, Nebius serves startups and enterprises building AI products, agents, and services worldwide. Nebius is listed on Nasdaq (Nasdaq: NBIS) and headquartered in Amsterdam.
For more information please visit nebius.com
Media kit nebius.com/media-kit
Forward-looking statements
This press release contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, which involve risks and uncertainties. All statements contained in this press release other than statements of historical fact, including, without limitation, statements regarding our future financial and business performance, strategy, expected growth, planned investments and capital expenditures, capacity expansion plans, anticipated future financing transactions and expected financial results, are forward-looking statements. The words "anticipate," "believe," "continue," "estimate," "expect," "guide," "intend," "likely," "may," "will" and similar expressions and their negatives are intended to identify forward-looking statements.
These forward-looking statements are subject to risks, uncertainties and assumptions, some of which are beyond our control. Actual results may differ materially from the results predicted or implied by such statements, and our reported results should not be considered as an indication of future performance. The potential risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ from the results predicted or implied by such statements include, among others: market, macroeconomic and geopolitical conditions; our ability to build, operate and manage our businesses to the desired scale; competitive pressures; technological developments; our ability to secure and retain clients; our ability to secure additional capital to enable the growth of the business; unpredictable sales cycles; and potential pricing pressures; as well as those risks and uncertainties related to our continuing businesses included under the captions "Risk Factors" and "Operating and Financial Review and Prospects" in our Annual Report on Form 20-F for the year ended December 31, 2025, filed with the SEC on April 30, 2026, which is available on our investor relations website at https://nebius.com/investor-hub and on the SEC website at www.sec.gov.
All information in this press release is as of the date hereof (unless stated otherwise). Except as required by law, we undertake no obligation to update or revise publicly any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, after the date on which the statements are made or to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events.
In addition, statements that "we believe" and similar statements reflect our beliefs and opinions on the relevant subject. These statements are based upon information available to us as of the date hereof and, while we believe such information forms a reasonable basis for such statements, such information may be limited or incomplete, and our statements should not be read to indicate that we have conducted an exhaustive inquiry into, or review of, all potentially available relevant information. These statements are inherently uncertain, and investors are cautioned not to unduly rely upon these statements.
Nebius Group N.V. (NASDAQ:NBIS – Get Free Report) Director Arne Grimme bought 148 shares of the firm’s stock in a transaction that occurred on Thursday, October 15th. The stock was bought at an average price of $169.99 per share, with a total value of $25,158.52. Following the transaction, the director directly owned 6,033 shares in the company, valued at $1,025,549.67. This represents a 2.51% increase in their ownership of the stock. The transaction was disclosed in a legal filing with the SEC, which is available at the SEC website. The transaction was executed under a pre-arranged Rule 10b5-1 trading plan.
Nebius Group Price Performance Nebius Group stock opened at $165.47 on Monday. The stock has a market cap of $41.87 billion, a price-to-earnings ratio of -5,513.83 and a beta of 4.18. The company has a current ratio of 4.03, a quick ratio of 4.03 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.82. The company’s 50-day moving average price is $223.57 and its two-hundred day moving average price is $207.47. Nebius Group N.V. has a 52 week low of $73.52 and a 52 week high of $299.86.
Nebius Group (NASDAQ:NBIS – Get Free Report) last released its quarterly earnings results on Thursday, August 13th. The company reported ($0.12) EPS for the quarter, topping analysts’ consensus estimates of ($0.67) by $0.55. The company had revenue of $582.30 million for the quarter, compared to the consensus estimate of $567.91 million. Nebius Group had a net margin of 4.55% and a negative return on equity of 6.03%. Nebius Group’s revenue was up 454% on a year-over-year basis. During the same period in the previous year, the firm earned $2.38 EPS. On average, analysts expect that Nebius Group N.V. will post -3.00 EPS for the current fiscal year.
Institutional Investors Weigh In On Nebius Group A number of institutional investors and hedge funds have recently modified their holdings of NBIS. BlackRock Inc. boosted its stake in shares of Nebius Group by 16.0% during the 2nd quarter. BlackRock Inc. now owns 11,531,270 shares of the company’s stock worth $3,184,591,000 after acquiring an additional 1,593,684 shares in the last quarter. Situational Awareness LP acquired a new stake in shares of Nebius Group during the second quarter worth $1,232,895,000. State Street Corp raised its position in shares of Nebius Group by 16.2% during the second quarter. State Street Corp now owns 4,069,875 shares of the company’s stock worth $1,123,977,000 after purchasing an additional 568,415 shares during the period. Jennison Associates LLC raised its position in shares of Nebius Group by 134.3% during the second quarter. Jennison Associates LLC now owns 3,983,899 shares of the company’s stock worth $1,100,233,000 after purchasing an additional 2,283,676 shares during the period. Finally, Accel Leaders 4 Associates L.P. acquired a new stake in shares of Nebius Group during the second quarter worth $1,012,097,322. Institutional investors and hedge funds own 21.90% of the company’s stock. Analyst Ratings Changes NBIS has been the topic of several research reports. Piper Sandler assumed coverage on shares of Nebius Group in a research report on Monday, August 3rd. They issued a “neutral” rating and a $224.00 price target on the stock. Wall Street Zen raised shares of Nebius Group from a “strong sell” rating to a “sell” rating in a report on Sunday, August 16th. Robert W. Baird raised their price objective on shares of Nebius Group from $250.00 to $340.00 and gave the company an “outperform” rating in a research report on Thursday, August 13th. Citigroup lifted their price objective on shares of Nebius Group from $278.00 to $324.00 and gave the stock a “buy” rating in a research note on Friday, August 14th. Finally, William Blair initiated coverage on shares of Nebius Group in a report on Wednesday, September 30th. They issued an “outperform” rating on the stock. Three analysts have rated the stock with a Strong Buy rating, twelve have issued a Buy rating, five have given a Hold rating and two have assigned a Sell rating to the company’s stock. According to data from MarketBeat.com, the stock has an average rating of “Moderate Buy” and an average target price of $245.69.
View Our Latest Report on NBIS
Key Headlines Impacting Nebius Group Here are the key news stories impacting Nebius Group this week:
Positive Sentiment: Director bought shares: Director Arne Grimme purchased 148 shares at an average price of $169.99, increasing his direct ownership by 2.51%. The transaction was made under a pre-arranged Rule 10b5-1 plan, providing a modest insider-confidence signal, although the purchase was relatively small. SEC insider purchase filing Positive Sentiment: Revenue growth remains a strength: A comparison with Innodata found that Nebius generated more revenue in five of the eight reported quarters and posted larger quarter-over-quarter gains. This supports the growth case for its AI infrastructure business. Innodata versus Nebius revenue comparison Neutral Sentiment: Analysts and commentators remain divided: some identify Nebius as a potential dip-buying opportunity because of strong AI demand, while others have downgraded the stock after the selloff. Reported customer capacity requests reportedly extend into 2028, and a $775 million secured facility could help fund expansion, but execution and financing remain important risks. AI stocks and potential buying opportunities Negative Sentiment: Debt and funding fears pressured the shares: CoreWeave’s debt-related concerns spread across the AI-cloud sector, raising questions about how GPU providers can finance rapid expansion. Investors are increasingly worried that high capital requirements and falling compute prices could weaken returns. Nebius stock selloff and CoreWeave debt concerns Negative Sentiment: Industry outlook deteriorated: A Gartner warning that most “neocloud” companies may not survive independently triggered additional selling in Nebius and peers. The market’s Fear & Greed reading also moved sharply toward “Extreme Fear,” amplifying risk aversion. AI cloud stocks and Gartner neocloud warning Negative Sentiment: Broader technology weakness, inflation concerns and reports referencing insider selling added to the pressure. With Nebius trading well below its moving averages and carrying a highly volatile profile, investors appear to be prioritizing balance-sheet risk over its strong revenue growth. Nebius stock decline and insider selling report About Nebius Group (Get Free Report)
Nebius Group N.V. is a technology company focused on providing cloud infrastructure and services for artificial intelligence and machine learning applications. Through its Nebius AI division, the company offers access to high-performance computing, graphics processing units (GPUs), storage, networking, and related tools designed to help businesses and developers train, deploy, and operate AI models.
The company also operates or supports other technology businesses, including Toloka, an AI data and evaluation platform; TripleTen, an online education provider focused on technology careers; and Avride, a developer of autonomous driving and delivery technologies.
See Also Five stocks we like better than Nebius Group These 3 Green Stocks Have a Growth Story That Goes Far Beyond Washington Meta Claims Frontier-Class AI Status With New Muse Wonder Models Berkshire Just Backed This Little-Known Stock—Should You Chase It? Broadcom’s CEO Sees Years of AI Demand But Warns of a Bigger Threat to the Boom
Receive News & Ratings for Nebius Group Daily - Enter your email address below to receive a concise daily summary of the latest news and analysts' ratings for Nebius Group and related companies with MarketBeat.com's FREE daily email newsletter.
Akcie Nebius v říjnu klesly o 30 %, přesto firma musí ve druhém pololetí dosáhnout tržeb ve výši zhruba 2 mld. USD, aby splnila dolní hranici celoročního výhledu.
On June 18, Nebius Group (NBIS -12.18%) stock ended the day at $286.69, a record. Right now, shares trade around $165 -- about 40% lower. Most of that drop is recent, with the stock falling about 30% in October alone.
Sure, it's still been a great year for anybody who bought the artificial intelligence (AI) cloud provider's stock in January. Even after the slide, the stock has nearly doubled this year.
But the stock arguably isn't cheap enough yet. Nebius is calling for a sharp gain in revenue in the next two quarters, and I think the price already assumes it gets there.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
No company news explains the dropNebius itself hasn't given investors much new to worry about. Its October announcements included a small software acquisition and a developer-training program. And the company hasn't changed its forecast since it reaffirmed its 2026 guidance with its second-quarter report in August.
Instead, the selling looks broader. Fellow AI cloud provider CoreWeave has dropped about as much as Nebius in October, as investors seem to have soured on companies that rent out AI computing power. I can't pin down a single reason.
Put another way, the price has changed far more than the business has over the last few weeks.
Can the second half deliver?Nebius' growth has been remarkable. Revenue climbed from around $228 million in the last three months of 2025 to $399 million in the first quarter of 2026, then $582 million in the second quarter, up 454% year over year. Compared to the previous quarter, growth slowed from 75% to 46%. But every quarter still added over $170 million in revenue. Annualized run-rate revenue (the last month of the quarter's AI cloud revenue, times 12) rose from $1.9 billion in March to $3.0 billion in June.
Management, though, is calling for a much steeper climb. Nebius expects revenue of $3.0 billion to $3.4 billion for 2026, and year-end annualized run-rate revenue of $7 billion to $9 billion.
With $981 million of revenue in the first half, reaching even the bottom of that range means taking in around $2 billion in the second half, more than twice the first half's total. Put differently, Nebius has to average about $1 billion a quarter, or about 75% more than it took in during the second quarter.
If it just kept adding revenue at its second-quarter rate, full-year revenue might be closer to $2.7 billion.
Management expects new capacity to bridge that gap. On the August earnings call, chief financial officer Dado Alonso said Nebius expects "capacity deployed late in Q2 to begin contributing to revenue in Q3."
The third-quarter report should show if it does.
Meanwhile, building that capacity is expensive. Capital expenditures were around $5.7 billion in the second quarter alone. And Nebius swung to a net loss from continuing operations of around $190 million, since a big investment gain from a year earlier didn't repeat.
The price still assumes a lotNebius often points to more than $40 billion in customer commitments. The amount in its financial statements is a little lower. Remaining performance obligations (signed contract revenue it hasn't recognized yet) were around $37.5 billion on June 30, and Nebius expects just 36% of that to become revenue over the two years through June 2028. That total was up from about $33.6 billion at the end of March.
Plus, revenue is concentrated. Three customers made up 24%, 21%, and 14% of second-quarter revenue, or 59% combined, though Nebius labels them just by letter. The only investment-grade clients it names, Microsoft and Meta Platforms, have each signed deals worth over $10 billion.
At around $47 billion, Nebius trades at about 15 times the sales it expects this year, using the midpoint of its forecast. At the June peak, it was closer to 24 times sales.
NBIS Nebius Group$165.47-$22.94 (-12.18%)
NASDAQ · As of 4:00 PM ET 10/16/26
True, that multiple has fallen a lot. But around 15 times sales is still pricey for a company that lost money in the second quarter and is spending heavily to add capacity.
Is a 40% drop enough to make Nebius a buy? Not yet, in my view. The company is growing exceptionally fast. But at this price, I'd want to see the second-half ramp show up in the results before buying.
What would change my mind is a third-quarter report showing revenue heading toward $1 billion a quarter, plus backlog growth from customers besides Microsoft and Meta. A lower stock price would help, too.
Akcie společnosti Nebius během výprodeje poskytovatelů neocloudu klesly o 11 %, přesto poptávka zůstává silná a objednávky kapacity sahají až do roku 2028.
SummaryNebius fell 11% during the neocloud selloff, but demand remains strong with customer capacity requests extending into 2028.The $775 million secured facility demonstrates how contracted cash flows and project financing could reduce Nebius’ corporate capital requirements.Inferize, Token Factory, and Vera Rubin infrastructure could move Nebius beyond GPU rental toward higher-value managed inference economics.At $186, I remain cautiously bullish but prefer accumulating around $160 to $170 given dilution and financing risks. gorodenkoff/iStock via Getty Images
I remain cautiously bullish on Nebius (NBIS) after the broader tech pullback. While I do not have concerns around Nebius’ demand for now, with requests moving out to 2028 and pricing being extremely strong, I
8.76K Followers
Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of NBIS either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.
Akcie společnosti Nebius během obchodování 14. října klesly o 10,33 % na 185,50 USD. Ředitel prodeje Marc Boroditsky prodal 7 000 akcií v rámci obchodního plánu přijatého 15. června.
An October 13 filing records 7,000 shares sold after an option exercise; 336,000 options remained.
Summary
Nebius’s insider-selling headlines need separation from the actual transaction and its timing.
Nebius Group, the AI-cloud infrastructure provider NBIS, faces renewed scrutiny over executive share sales, with its stock at $185.50, down 10.33%, at 12:30 p.m. ET during October 14 regular trading. Investing.com's report highlighted insider selling alongside a spike in CoreWeave's bond yields. That puts financing pressure and executive transactions in focus. But neither establishes why Nebius fell so sharply.
The October 13 SEC filing records chief revenue officer Marc Boroditsky exercising 7,000 options at $40 each on October 12, then selling the shares for $211.23 apiece. Gross proceeds totaled $1,478,610 before fees and taxes. The disclosed trading plan dates to June 15, months before this selloff. The filing lists zero directly held Class A shares after the transactions, but also 336,000 remaining stock options. Selling those shares did not erase his entire economic exposure.
The screenshot's GF Score of 52/100, with momentum outpacing financial strength and valuation, highlights the gap between market enthusiasm and underlying fundamentals. The investor question goes beyond one executive's sale: can Nebius turn its cloud expansion into durable cash generation? Watch deployed capacity, customer revenue and the funding needed to bring new infrastructure online. A scheduled transaction offers limited insight into those economics. Stronger operating results—and a clearer path to financing growth—would provide much more useful evidence.
CEO Buys, CFO Buys: Stocks that are bought by their CEO/CFOs. Insider Cluster Buys: Stocks that multiple company officers and directors have bought. Double Buys: Companies that both Gurus and Insiders are buying Triple Buys: Companies that both Gurus and Insiders are buying, and Company is buying back.
Disclosures
I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and have no plans to buy any new positions in the stocks mentioned within the next 72 hours.
Akcie Nebius (NBIS) klesly na 185,63 USD, tedy téměř 40 % pod letošní maximum, poté, co Gartner varoval před znehodnocením investic do infrastruktury pro AI v hodnotě více než 3,5 bilionu USD do roku 2030.
Nebius stock price retreated sharply today, October 14, reaching its lowest level since August 11 this year. NBIS dropped to $185.63, down by nearly 40% from the year-to-date high. This retreat has brought its market capitalization to $50.3 billion from the all-time high of $76.3 billion.
The ongoing NBIS stock retreat has coincided with that of other companies in the neocloud industry. CoreWeave, the biggest name in the sector, dropped to $65, down by over 52% from the all-time high. IREN, another neocloud company, dropped to $30.9 from the year-to-date high of $70.65.
Other top companies in the neocloud industry like RIOT Platforms, MARA Holdings, and HIVE digital also slumped. The same also happened across other AI firms like Oracle, Nvidia, AMD, and Dell also retreated.
This crash happened after Gartner, a top analytics company, published a report in which it warned about the AI infrastructure industry. Its report warned that over $3.5 trillion of AI infrastructure spending could be exposed to impairment by the end of 2030.
The report noted that AI providers have already spent nearly $1 trillion on AI infrastructure, and that they will spend an additional $6 trillion between 2027 and 2030. Despite this spending, the report notes that AI revenue will not be enough to support profitable returns. As a result, companies could be forced to scale back their investments.
According to Gartner, neocloud companies are among the most exposed to this impairment. It noted that these companies, unlike hyperscalers, don’t have a diversified business model and that they will need to start earning a return.
The view matches what Michael Burry has continued warning in the past few months. In recent statements, Burry warned that these companies will need to depreciate their GPUs at a faster pace than expected. He believes that the useful time of life should be between 2 and 3 years. In contrast, these companies predict that the time should be over 6 years.
The most recent results showed that the company is seeing an increase in depreciation. Its revenue jumped by 454% in the last quarter to $584 million. On the other hand, its depreciation and amortization stood at $259 million, representing 44% of its total revenue. Other neocloud companies are also experiencing this depreciation.
NBIS stock chart | Source: TradingView
The daily chart shows that the NBIS stock has dropped sharply in the past few months, moving from a high of $300 in June to the current $186. It has slipped below the important support level of $187, the Strong, Pivot, Reverse level of the Murrey Math Lines.
The stock has also dropped below the key support level of $194.27, its lowest level on September 2nd. It has also moved below the 50-day moving average and the Supertrend indicator.
Therefore, Nebius will likely continue falling as the fears of the AI bubble bursting continue. If this happens, it may drop to the ultimate support of the Murrey Math Lines tool at $125. Such a move is about 33% below the current level.
Klíčové pozice fondu Situational Awareness od lokálních maxim na přelomu září a října klesly o 6 % až 30 %; SanDisk a Micron, které tvoří 55 % portfolia, ztratily 19 %, respektive 14 %.
V létě musel mladý investor Leopold Aschenbrenner zkousnout velkou porážku, když jeho hedgeový fond Situational Awareness musel prodat většinu svého portfolia společnosti Citadel. Bývalý 25letý výzkumník OpenAI se tehdy spálil na extrémní koncentraci zaměřené na firmy spojené s AI infrastrukturou, které potkal velký výprodej. Nyní, o pouhých pár měsíců později, je Aschenbrennerův fond opět pod citelným tlakem.
Největší pozice fondu se od svých lokálních maxim dosažených na přelomu září a října propadly o šest až 30 procent. Největší váhu v portfoliu mají výrobci paměťových čipů SanDisk a Micron Technology, které podle údajů z formuláře 13F za druhé čtvrtletí tvoří dohromady 55 procent portfolia.
Přitom Sandisk je od svého říjnového maxima dole o 19 procent, Micron o 14 procent. Ztrácejí ale i další zástupci v portfoliu: Nebius (-11 %), CoreWeave (-13 %) a SharonAI, jejíž akcie spadly dokonce až o 30 procent, upozornil příspěvek na sociální síti X od účtu sledujícího Aschenbrennerův fond.
Leopold Aschenbrenner's biggest positions are getting hit again
Here's what his top holdings done since October highs:
• SanDisk $SNDK: down 19%
• Bloom Energy $BE: down 6%
• Nebius $NBIS: down 11%
• CoreWeave $CRWV: down 13%
• Micron $MU: down 14%
• SharonAI $SHAZ: down 30%
SanDisk and Micron are 55% of the fund, per Q2 13F
In July, a drawdown like this triggered a forced sale of his book to Citadel
— Leopold Stock Tracker (@LeopoldTracker_) October 13, 2026
Současná situace tak dává vzpomenout na konec července, kdy přílišná sázka na společnosti jako CoreWeave, Nebius, SanDisk nebo Bloom Energy v kombinaci s využíváním vysoké finanční páky (podle některých zdrojů kolem čtyřnásobku vlastního kapitálu) přinutila Aschenbrennera kapitulovat, protože jeho portfolio tehdy ztratilo 67 procent hodnoty během jediného měsíce.
Stalo se tak poté, co na trzích došlo k prudkému výprodeji v AI sektoru, který semlel i zmíněné tituly. Do toho navíc rostly akcie, které fond shortoval, takže fond prodělával na dlouhých i krátkých pozicích zároveň. To nakonec vedlo k jednomu z největších kolapsů hedgeového fondu posledních let.
Aschenbrenner investorům přiznal, že fond se dostal trvalému poškození kapitálu blíž, než by bylo přijatelné. Aby tak zabránil dalším ztrátám, prodal většinu portfolia společnosti Citadel, kterou vede miliardář Ken Griffin.
Restart s větší obezřetností
Po dramatickém výprodeji prošel fond faktickým restartem. Aschenbrenner investorům oznámil, že odstranil veškeré úvěrové financování portfolia, uzavřel krátké pozice a přebudoval proces řízení rizik. Fond si současně ponechal své soukromé investice, včetně významného podílu ve startupu Anthropic, jehož hodnota se pohybuje v miliardách dolarů.
Navzdory červencovému kolapsu zůstává fond po letních událostech stále v působivém zisku. A dobře je na tom i po zmíněném nedávném výprodeji na polovodičových akciích. Od začátku roku je totiž fond v plusu o 57 procent, což je odrazem mimořádně silného zhodnocení z předchozích měsíců.
Současná nemilá situace se však zdá být oproti červencovému kolapsu zásadně odlišná. Zatímco tehdy byly ztráty umocněny vysokou pákou financovanou prostřednictvím prime brokerů a následnými margin cally, tak po letní restrukturalizaci, by měl fond (i přes využívání opčních strategií) fungovat s výrazně konzervativnějším profilem rizika. To znamená, že i další výrazný pokles klíčových pozic by nemusel vést k tak dramatické spirále nucených prodejů, která fond v létě tak tvrdě zasáhla.
Nebius (NBIS +0.62%) underwent a remarkable transformation over the past four years. The Netherlands-based company was previously known as Yandex, which owned Russia's top search engine and other associated apps. However, the sanctions imposed on Russia in 2022 forced it to divest all its Russian assets. Its NASDAQ-listed YNDX shares were also halted.
After selling Yandex's eponymous search engine and Russian apps to a consortium of Russian investors, it rebranded itself as Nebius and became a cloud-based AI infrastructure company. Its stock resumed trading on Oct. 21, 2024, under its new NBIS ticker symbol.
Image source: Getty Images.
Nebius' stock opened at $14.29 per share on the first day, and closed at a record high of $286.69 on June 18, 2026. That rally would have turned a $1,000 investment into more than $20,000 in less than two years. Today, its stock trades at about $220. Let's see why Nebius' stock skyrocketed -- and what it might turn a fresh $1,000 investment into by 2030.
What does Nebius do? Nebius is a "neocloud" company that deploys thousands of GPUs across its data centers to remotely process AI tasks. It currently operates four data centers in Finland, Iceland, and the United States, but it plans to open 14 more data centers in the near future.
As the AI market expands, AI companies and hyperscalers are running out of compute power to support their latest generative AI applications. That's why they're turning to neocloud companies, like Nebius and its larger rival CoreWeave (CRWV +0.61%), to meet that demand.
Today's Change
(
0.62
%) $
1.36
Current Price
$
221.07
Why did Nebius' stock deliver multibagger gains? In 2025, Nebius' revenue surged 351% to $530 million. In the first half of 2026, its revenue soared another 529% year over year to $981 million. Its adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) also improved from negative $75 million to positive $366 million, giving it an adjusted EBITDA margin of 37%. By the end of the second quarter of 2026, its contracted backlog had more than quadrupled year over year to $40 billion.
Nebius expects its annualized revenue run rate to reach $7 billion to $9 billion by the end of 2026. Analysts expect its full-year revenue to surge 530% to $3.3 billion, then jump 268% to $12.3 billion in 2027 and 87% to $23 billion in 2028. They expect its adjusted EBITDA to turn positive in 2026, then rise 378% to $6.6 billion in 2027 and 106% to $13.6 billion in 2028.
Why does Nebius' stock still seem undervalued? With an enterprise value of $74 billion, Nebius' stock still looks surprisingly cheap at 8 times next year's sales and 14 times its adjusted EBITDA. That's probably because some investors are still concerned about its lack of profitability under generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) -- which includes all interest and depreciation costs excluded from its adjusted EBITDA -- as well as its rising debt and dilution (its share count has risen 15% since its market return).
At the end of the second quarter of 2026, Nebius had a manageable debt-to-equity ratio of 1.7. But that leverage will likely rise as it continues to open new data centers, and rising interest rates will make it even more expensive to issue new debt.
To convert its massive backlog into revenue, Nebius plans to expand its data center capacity from 170 MW at the end of 2025 to between 800 MW and 1 GW by the end of 2026. Unlike CoreWeave, which leases most of its data centers, Nebius prefers to buy them outright. That's a smart long-term strategy, but it will rack up higher near-term expenses.
If Nebius matches analysts' estimates through 2028, grows its adjusted EBITDA at a 30% CAGR over the following three years, and trades at 25x its forward adjusted EBITDA by the fourth quarter of 2030, its stock could rise roughly ninefold by the end of that year.
Turning $1,000 into more than $9,000 would be an impressive four-year gain, but its stock could endure some wild swings before that happens. Investors should keep a close eye on its capital-intensive expansion and see if it's sustainable in this messy macro environment.
Nebius ve 2. čtvrtletí zvýšil tržby o 454 % na 582,3 mil. USD a překonal konsenzus, ale vykázal čistou ztrátu 190,4 mil. USD při plánovaných kapitálových výdajích 20–25 mld. USD.
Nebius has already signed tens of billions in AI compute contracts, crushed revenue estimates, and handed investors a triple-digit return this year, but its balance sheet carries threats that could unwind everything before 2027 arrives.
This post may contain links from our sponsors and affiliates, and Flywheel Publishing may receive compensation for actions taken through them.
Nebius Group (NASDAQ:NBIS | NBIS Price Prediction) trades at $237.15. The AI cloud provider is converting a $37.49 billion contract backlog into revenue rapidly, giving investors direct exposure to AI compute demand outside mega caps.
Nebius leases GPU compute, storage and inference tools through Nebius AI Cloud, which produced 98% of group revenue last quarter. Anchor contracts include a $27 billion five-year Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META) agreement and a Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) deal valued at $17.4 billion to $19.4 billion. NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) committed $2 billion strategically. Shares are up 183.32% year to date but fell 5.09% in the latest session.
A Sold-Out Cloud With Rising Prices Points Higher Second-quarter revenue rose 454% to $582.3 million, beating the $574.65 million consensus. Group adjusted EBITDA came in at $236 million with a 41% margin versus a $21 million loss a year earlier. Management confirmed its $7 billion to $9 billion ARR target for 2026 and raised its year-end contracted power goal to 5 gigawatts.
Pricing power is growing. The company’s first capacity auction cleared 15% above its previous top price. At a forward P/E of 46 and consensus 2027 revenue of roughly $12.3 billion, the valuation leans on expected growth.
Billions in Capex and Convertible Debt Threaten Shareholders Nebius posted a GAAP net loss of $190.4 million. Consensus EPS is -$2.2773 for 2026 and -$5.6426 for 2027. Capex guidance is $20 billion to $25 billion, and quarterly interest expense rose to $119.1 million from $4.8 million.
Convertible debt has a fair value of $20.8 billion against a $8.5 billion carrying amount, which points to heavy potential dilution. Three customers made up for 24%, 21%, and 14% of revenue. In the first quarter, revenue fell short of estimates by 32.74%. At 50 times sales, the stock cannot afford another miss.
Third-Quarter Results Will Test Whether Growth Can Fund Itself The case for patience rests on operations working while profits remain a forecast. Nebius sells out new capacity as it comes online and expects more than $9 billion in customer prepayments this year. GAAP losses continue, though, and the company carries $12.1 billion in future lease obligations.
Consensus calls for about $904 million in third-quarter revenue. A beat and solid 2027 outlook would strengthen the bull case. A miss or new convertible offering would strengthen the bear case.
Wall Street Sees Upside After a Market-Beating Run Nebius trades at $237.15. The consensus target of $282.53 implies 19.1% upside. Price targets are uncertain, and this one reflects 10 analysts:
Strong Buy: 2 Buy: 6 Hold: 1 Sell: 1 The stock has gained 101.49% over the past year versus 16.16% for the S&P 500. Year to date, Nebius is up 183.32% compared with a gain of 13.98% for the index. Momentum has slowed. Over the past week, Nebius gained 0.54% versus 1.92% for the index. Shares remain below their 52-week high of $299.86.
Nebius Faces Its Biggest Test as 2027 Pricing Comes Into Focus At $237.15, Nebius trades below its consensus target.
The path to a higher stock price runs through the next three quarters. Capacity installed late in the second quarter starts adding revenue in the third. Deals signed at yields above $20 million per megawatt, with payback periods under two years, start coming online in late Q4. Vera Rubin systems should begin deploying in late 2026 or early 2027.
Customer prepayments cover 50% to 60% of related capex, reducing the need for new equity. With shares trading well below their high as margins expand, the outlook depends on execution.
The thesis fails if third-quarter revenue misses, a top customer pulls back or Nebius issues another large convertible. Watch progress toward the ARR target.
Nebius offers scaled, pure-play access to AI compute demand outside the chipmakers, and the current price reflects a backlog of more than $37 billion (we featured seven other non-chipmaker suppliers riding the same expansion, accessible without charge at here).
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Nebius Group shares jumped about 8% to around $253.25 on Tuesday, reversing the previous session’s 4.22% decline and breaking above the $250 resistance zone.
The move followed a period of consolidation during which the stock repeatedly faced selling pressure around the $250 level.
Trading volume also pointed to strong participation, with about 16.52 million shares changing hands compared with an average trading volume of 19.99 million according to Yahoo Finance data.
Technical indicators also turned more supportive.
The moving average convergence divergence (MACD) moved above its signal line on the one-month chart, while the histogram turned positive, pointing to stronger bullish momentum.
The relative strength index (RSI) climbed to about 67.83, indicating strong buying pressure but also placing the stock close to overbought territory.
The latest rally came a day after several insider-sale filings dated October 5. Nebius Chief Technology Officer Danila Shtan reported selling 14,550 shares at $234.16 on October 1.
The reported sale was linked to automatic withholding for restricted stock unit taxes. Ophir Nave’s proposed sale of 500,000 shares was made under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan.
No new fundamental catalyst was cited for Tuesday’s move, making the technical breakout the clearest explanation for the gain.
The key level for investors now is whether Nebius can remain above $250 and establish the former resistance level as new support.
Nebius has continued expanding its AI infrastructure footprint as demand for cloud computing and inference capacity grows.
The company recently acquired Inferize to strengthen its Token Factory inference platform.
Inferize develops technology designed to reduce model launch times, lower idle GPU capacity, and reduce inference costs.
The Inferize team joined Nebius Token Factory to help integrate the technology into its production inference stack.
The acquisition follows Nebius’ earlier additions of Eigen AI and technology from Clarifai.
Nebius has also signed a binding agreement with AIB Data Centers for 50 megawatts of critical IT capacity at a southeastern US facility.
AIB plans to deliver the capacity across two data halls under an initial 12-year term.
The additional capacity is intended to support AI workloads as demand for computing infrastructure increases.
Nebius has reportedly raised GPU cloud prices by about 20% across several Nvidia models, including the H100, H200, B200 and B300 chips.
The price increases point to continued demand for high-end AI computing capacity and the company’s ability to charge more amid constrained GPU supply.
Nebius has also benefited from capacity expansion and its relationship with Nvidia, which previously invested $2 billion in the company to support its hyperscale AI cloud buildout.
BNP Paribas recently upgraded Nebius to Outperform from Neutral and raised its price forecast to $399 from $260.
The bank said its outlook for the company had meaningfully improved since initiating coverage in June.
BNP Paribas estimates Nebius could approach $22 billion in annual recurring revenue by the end of 2027 and said the company’s 2027 guidance could lead to a material reset in current estimates.
Nebius shares have gained almost 200% in 2026, compared with nearly 30% for CoreWeave and 9% for IREN.
AI cloud demand, higher GPU pricing, infrastructure expansion, and inference services remain key drivers of the company’s growth outlook.
, acquired inference optimizer Inferize to get AI models serving customers faster, while shares fell 3% to $235.00 at approximately 11:45 a.m. ET Monday. The business logic is straightforward: expensive GPUs earn nothing while waiting for models to load. Inferize aims to shorten that wait and help Nebius handle demand without keeping as much spare capacity running.
The technology and team have joined Nebius Token Factory, its managed inference platform. Nebius did not disclose the purchase price. Meanwhile, Investor's Business Daily reported that Michael Burry (Trades, Portfolio) added to his bearish Nebius position while anticipating a semiconductor downturn. The GF Score graphic shows 52 out of 100, with momentum clearly outpacing financial strength and GF Value—a reminder that a strong stock trend can coexist with weaker fundamentals.
For investors, the payoff would be more revenue from the same hardware. Better utilization could spread depreciation and financing costs across more paid work, improving the economics of each token served. But the announcement included no utilization target, integration deadline or quantified savings. The acquisition gives Nebius another tool to improve returns. Now it needs numbers showing that the tool works.
CTO společnosti Nebius Group Danila Shtan prodal 14 546 akcií NBIS za průměrnou cenu 234,16 USD, celkem za 3 406 091,36 USD, čímž snížil svůj podíl o 5,29 %.
Nebius Group N.V. (NASDAQ:NBIS – Get Free Report) CTO Danila Shtan sold 14,546 shares of the company’s stock in a transaction on Thursday, October 1st. The stock was sold at an average price of $234.16, for a total value of $3,406,091.36. Following the sale, the chief technology officer owned 260,217 shares of the company’s stock, valued at approximately $60,932,412.72. This represents a 5.29% decrease in their position. The transaction was disclosed in a document filed with the Securities & Exchange Commission, which is available through this hyperlink.
Nebius Group Stock Down 4.4% Shares of NBIS stock traded down $10.68 during mid-day trading on Monday, hitting $232.13. 7,479,952 shares of the stock traded hands, compared to its average volume of 17,584,018. Nebius Group N.V. has a 52-week low of $73.52 and a 52-week high of $299.86. The stock has a market cap of $58.73 billion, a P/E ratio of -7,746.55 and a beta of 4.18. The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.82, a current ratio of 4.03 and a quick ratio of 4.03. The stock’s fifty day moving average is $219.62 and its two-hundred day moving average is $200.43.
Nebius Group (NASDAQ:NBIS – Get Free Report) last issued its quarterly earnings results on Thursday, August 13th. The company reported ($0.12) earnings per share for the quarter, topping analysts’ consensus estimates of ($0.67) by $0.55. Nebius Group had a negative return on equity of 6.03% and a net margin of 4.55%.The business had revenue of $582.30 million for the quarter, compared to analyst estimates of $567.91 million. During the same quarter in the previous year, the firm earned $2.38 earnings per share. The company’s revenue was up 454% on a year-over-year basis. Equities analysts predict that Nebius Group N.V. will post -3.48 EPS for the current year.
Wall Street Analyst Weigh In A number of brokerages have recently issued reports on NBIS. Northland Securities increased their target price on Nebius Group from $248.00 to $410.00 and gave the company an “outperform” rating in a research report on Monday, July 20th. Wall Street Zen upgraded shares of Nebius Group from a “strong sell” rating to a “sell” rating in a research report on Sunday, August 16th. Weiss Ratings raised shares of Nebius Group from a “sell (d+)” rating to a “hold (c-)” rating in a report on Friday, September 25th. Citigroup lifted their target price on shares of Nebius Group from $278.00 to $324.00 and gave the company a “buy” rating in a research report on Friday, August 14th. Finally, Freedom Capital upgraded shares of Nebius Group from a “hold” rating to a “strong-buy” rating in a research report on Monday, July 20th. Two investment analysts have rated the stock with a Strong Buy rating, eleven have issued a Buy rating, six have given a Hold rating and one has issued a Sell rating to the company. Based on data from MarketBeat, Nebius Group has an average rating of “Moderate Buy” and a consensus target price of $241.80. Read Our Latest Report on Nebius Group
Institutional Inflows and Outflows A number of large investors have recently added to or reduced their stakes in the company. Allied Private Wealth LLC purchased a new stake in Nebius Group during the 2nd quarter worth approximately $25,000. Sarver Vrooman Wealth Advisors acquired a new position in shares of Nebius Group in the second quarter worth $28,000. GoalVest Advisory LLC acquired a new position in shares of Nebius Group in the second quarter worth $28,000. Eastern Bank raised its stake in shares of Nebius Group by 66.3% in the third quarter. Eastern Bank now owns 158 shares of the company’s stock valued at $37,000 after acquiring an additional 63 shares in the last quarter. Finally, N.E.W. Advisory Services LLC raised its stake in shares of Nebius Group by 76.0% in the second quarter. N.E.W. Advisory Services LLC now owns 176 shares of the company’s stock valued at $49,000 after acquiring an additional 76 shares in the last quarter. 21.90% of the stock is currently owned by institutional investors and hedge funds.
Key Stories Impacting Nebius Group Here are the key news stories impacting Nebius Group this week:
Positive Sentiment: Inferize acquisition strengthens AI offerings: Nebius acquired Inferize to enhance its Token Factory inference platform, reduce “cold starts,” improve GPU utilization, and potentially lower idle-capacity costs as AI workloads expand. Nebius Strengthens Token Factory With Inferize Acquisition Positive Sentiment: Large contracted demand provides revenue visibility: Contracts with Microsoft and Meta reportedly total about $32 billion, with potential commitments reaching roughly $49 billion. Microsoft is obligated to pay for contracted capacity even if it does not fully use it, supporting Nebius’ long-term growth outlook. Nebius Has $40 Billion of Customer Commitments Positive Sentiment: Competitive positioning remains favorable: One analysis argues Nebius is winning AI infrastructure customers that CoreWeave cannot serve, citing its balance sheet and ability to expand capacity more quickly. CoreWeave vs. Nebius Neutral Sentiment: Partner-owned infrastructure could improve capital efficiency: Allowing partners to own some buildings and GPUs may reduce Nebius’ capital requirements and risk, but partner economics could also limit the profit retained by shareholders. Can Nebius Earn Better Returns by Letting Partners Own the Hardware? Negative Sentiment: Customer concentration is a risk: Most commitments come from Microsoft and Meta, increasing exposure to the spending plans and creditworthiness of just two customers. Negative Sentiment: CEO sold shares: Chief Executive Officer Arkadiy Volozh sold 37,778 shares for approximately $8.85 million, reducing his stake by 4.59%. Although he still owns a substantial position, the sale may weigh on sentiment. SEC Form 4 filing Negative Sentiment: AI valuation and pricing concerns persist: Investor Michael Burry expects an AI-bubble reversal that could sharply pressure Nebius by mid-2027. Separate commentary says AI compute pricing is already slipping, raising concerns about future margins and the sustainability of high growth expectations. About Nebius Group (Get Free Report)
Nebius Group N.V. is a technology company focused on artificial intelligence infrastructure and related services. Through its Nebius AI business, the company provides cloud-based computing infrastructure designed for developing, training and deploying machine-learning and generative AI applications, including access to accelerated computing, data storage, networking and managed cloud services.
The company also develops tools and services intended to support AI developers and businesses, including data and machine-learning infrastructure.
Featured Stories Five stocks we like better than Nebius Group What a $1 Billion Chip Deal Says About Amazon’s AI Ambitions 3 Stocks Benefiting From AI Demand Just Announced Major Buybacks Insiders Are Selling These 3 Stocks, Should You? Datadog’s Rally Has Insiders Selling—Can It Keep Climbing?
Receive News & Ratings for Nebius Group Daily - Enter your email address below to receive a concise daily summary of the latest news and analysts' ratings for Nebius Group and related companies with MarketBeat.com's FREE daily email newsletter.
Insider společnosti Nebius Group Andrey Korolenko prodal 29 090 akcií za průměrnou cenu 234,16 USD, celkem za 6 811 714,40 USD. Jeho podíl klesl o 5,28 % na 522 248 akcií.
Nebius Group N.V. (NASDAQ:NBIS – Get Free Report) insider Andrey Korolenko sold 29,090 shares of the company’s stock in a transaction dated Thursday, October 1st. The shares were sold at an average price of $234.16, for a total transaction of $6,811,714.40. Following the completion of the sale, the insider directly owned 522,248 shares in the company, valued at approximately $122,289,591.68. The trade was a 5.28% decrease in their position. The transaction was disclosed in a document filed with the Securities & Exchange Commission, which can be accessed through the SEC website.
Nebius Group Price Performance Shares of NBIS stock traded down $10.68 during trading hours on Monday, hitting $232.13. The company had a trading volume of 7,479,952 shares, compared to its average volume of 17,584,018. The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.82, a quick ratio of 4.03 and a current ratio of 4.03. The firm has a market capitalization of $58.73 billion, a price-to-earnings ratio of -7,746.55 and a beta of 4.18. Nebius Group N.V. has a 12 month low of $73.52 and a 12 month high of $299.86. The firm’s fifty day moving average is $219.62 and its 200 day moving average is $200.43.
Nebius Group (NASDAQ:NBIS – Get Free Report) last announced its quarterly earnings results on Thursday, August 13th. The company reported ($0.12) earnings per share for the quarter, beating analysts’ consensus estimates of ($0.67) by $0.55. Nebius Group had a negative return on equity of 6.03% and a net margin of 4.55%.The firm had revenue of $582.30 million for the quarter, compared to analysts’ expectations of $567.91 million. During the same period in the prior year, the business posted $2.38 earnings per share. The business’s revenue was up 454% compared to the same quarter last year. On average, sell-side analysts predict that Nebius Group N.V. will post -3.48 EPS for the current fiscal year.
Analyst Upgrades and Downgrades A number of equities research analysts recently weighed in on the company. Piper Sandler started coverage on Nebius Group in a report on Monday, August 3rd. They set a “neutral” rating and a $224.00 price target for the company. Bank of America raised their target price on Nebius Group from $240.00 to $280.00 and gave the company a “buy” rating in a research note on Monday, June 8th. Rothschild & Co Redburn assumed coverage on shares of Nebius Group in a report on Monday, September 21st. They set a “sell” rating and a $84.00 price objective on the stock. Northland Securities upped their target price on shares of Nebius Group from $248.00 to $410.00 and gave the stock an “outperform” rating in a research report on Monday, July 20th. Finally, Zacks Research lowered shares of Nebius Group from a “strong-buy” rating to a “hold” rating in a report on Friday, July 31st. Two analysts have rated the stock with a Strong Buy rating, eleven have assigned a Buy rating, six have assigned a Hold rating and one has assigned a Sell rating to the stock. According to MarketBeat.com, Nebius Group has an average rating of “Moderate Buy” and an average target price of $241.80. View Our Latest Analysis on NBIS
Institutional Investors Weigh In On Nebius Group A number of hedge funds have recently modified their holdings of the business. Ferguson Wellman Capital Management Inc. increased its stake in Nebius Group by 17.8% during the 3rd quarter. Ferguson Wellman Capital Management Inc. now owns 899 shares of the company’s stock worth $212,000 after purchasing an additional 136 shares in the last quarter. Eastern Bank lifted its stake in Nebius Group by 66.3% in the third quarter. Eastern Bank now owns 158 shares of the company’s stock valued at $37,000 after buying an additional 63 shares in the last quarter. Silverleafe Capital Partners LLC boosted its holdings in shares of Nebius Group by 94.5% in the third quarter. Silverleafe Capital Partners LLC now owns 6,580 shares of the company’s stock valued at $1,552,000 after buying an additional 3,197 shares during the period. Polaris Financial Partners bought a new stake in shares of Nebius Group during the third quarter worth $123,000. Finally, Confluence Investment Management LLC raised its holdings in shares of Nebius Group by 134.9% during the third quarter. Confluence Investment Management LLC now owns 5,815 shares of the company’s stock worth $1,372,000 after acquiring an additional 3,340 shares during the period. Institutional investors and hedge funds own 21.90% of the company’s stock.
Nebius Group News Summary Here are the key news stories impacting Nebius Group this week:
Positive Sentiment: Inferize acquisition strengthens AI offerings: Nebius acquired Inferize to enhance its Token Factory inference platform, reduce “cold starts,” improve GPU utilization, and potentially lower idle-capacity costs as AI workloads expand. Nebius Strengthens Token Factory With Inferize Acquisition Positive Sentiment: Large contracted demand provides revenue visibility: Contracts with Microsoft and Meta reportedly total about $32 billion, with potential commitments reaching roughly $49 billion. Microsoft is obligated to pay for contracted capacity even if it does not fully use it, supporting Nebius’ long-term growth outlook. Nebius Has $40 Billion of Customer Commitments Positive Sentiment: Competitive positioning remains favorable: One analysis argues Nebius is winning AI infrastructure customers that CoreWeave cannot serve, citing its balance sheet and ability to expand capacity more quickly. CoreWeave vs. Nebius Neutral Sentiment: Partner-owned infrastructure could improve capital efficiency: Allowing partners to own some buildings and GPUs may reduce Nebius’ capital requirements and risk, but partner economics could also limit the profit retained by shareholders. Can Nebius Earn Better Returns by Letting Partners Own the Hardware? Negative Sentiment: Customer concentration is a risk: Most commitments come from Microsoft and Meta, increasing exposure to the spending plans and creditworthiness of just two customers. Negative Sentiment: CEO sold shares: Chief Executive Officer Arkadiy Volozh sold 37,778 shares for approximately $8.85 million, reducing his stake by 4.59%. Although he still owns a substantial position, the sale may weigh on sentiment. SEC Form 4 filing Negative Sentiment: AI valuation and pricing concerns persist: Investor Michael Burry expects an AI-bubble reversal that could sharply pressure Nebius by mid-2027. Separate commentary says AI compute pricing is already slipping, raising concerns about future margins and the sustainability of high growth expectations. About Nebius Group (Get Free Report)
Nebius Group N.V. is a technology company focused on artificial intelligence infrastructure and related services. Through its Nebius AI business, the company provides cloud-based computing infrastructure designed for developing, training and deploying machine-learning and generative AI applications, including access to accelerated computing, data storage, networking and managed cloud services.
The company also develops tools and services intended to support AI developers and businesses, including data and machine-learning infrastructure.
Featured Stories Five stocks we like better than Nebius Group What a $1 Billion Chip Deal Says About Amazon’s AI Ambitions 3 Stocks Benefiting From AI Demand Just Announced Major Buybacks Insiders Are Selling These 3 Stocks, Should You? Datadog’s Rally Has Insiders Selling—Can It Keep Climbing?
Receive News & Ratings for Nebius Group Daily - Enter your email address below to receive a concise daily summary of the latest news and analysts' ratings for Nebius Group and related companies with MarketBeat.com's FREE daily email newsletter.
Objednávková kniha společnosti Nebius přesahuje 40 mld. USD, včetně pětileté smlouvy se společností Meta v hodnotě nejméně 12 mld. USD, zatímco letošní kapitálové výdaje mají dosáhnout 22,5 mld. USD.
The artificial intelligence (AI) cloud company Nebius (NBIS -4.01%) has gone on a fantastic run over the past 12 months, with its share price soaring 110%. Demand for neocloud companies that rent out data center capacity to tech companies is accelerating, and Nebius is tapping straight into that need.
The trajectory for many AI stocks looks good right now, but where will Nebius be in a few years, and how much might $1,000 invested in the company be worth?
On the bullish side, I think Nebius' shares could double from their current price, turning $1,000 into $2,000 by 2030. Here's why.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
The neoclouds are having their day in the sun The need for data center capacity for AI has accelerated over the past several years, spurring growth in neoclouds that run compute-as-a-service businesses.
While traditional hyperscalers like Alphabet, Microsoft, and Amazon have their own data centers and cloud services, neoclouds simply rent out compute capacity. This makes companies like Nebius especially critical for tech companies looking to accelerate their AI capacity quickly.
And that's done wonders for Nebius' cloud contracts. The company signed four contracts in the second quarter, each averaging more than $1 billion. And Nebius recently announced a five-year agreement with Meta worth at least $12 billion, with the potential to rise to $15 billion. Palantir also named Nebius as one of its preferred AI infrastructure partners, giving Palantir's customers access to Nebius' infrastructure.
The total amount of Nebius' backlog commitments exceeds $40 billion. Though it's worth mentioning that this hasn't been realized as revenue yet. Still, Nebius' total sales outlook for 2026 is for about $3.2 billion -- more than double its 2025 revenue.
Nebius is building new data centers to meet demand and has said it will have 16 by the end of this year. Nebius is trying to keep up with its customers' needs, and CFO Dado Alonso said on the second-quarter earnings call,
"[O]nce again, we sold out of capacity because, as fast as we bring capacity online, we can sell it."
That's a very good problem to have, and it could keep Nebius' sales accelerating for years to come. Research firm Gartner estimates that neocloud providers could take 20% of the $267 billion AI cloud market by 2030.
Today's Change
(
-4.01
%) $
-9.75
Current Price
$
233.06
One factor that could keep Nebius stock from accelerating There's one issue that tech investors are starting to side-eye: rising capital expenditures paired with no profits.
Unfortunately, that explains Nebius. Management says capex will be around $22.5 billion this year, at the midpoint of guidance, which is more than 5 times last year's level. That's quite a spending spree, especially when sales are only expected to be just over $3 billion this year.
You don't have to look hard to find AI stocks that are suffering under the weight of their spending. Space Exploration Technologies' capex rose 309% to $28.5 billion in the first half of this year, with most of it directed toward artificial intelligence. Meanwhile, its total sales over the same period were less than half that.
SpaceX's shares are still around their opening trading price from back in June, as investors have questioned whether the spending will eventually translate into profits.
Nebius is a different company from SpaceX, but both rent out AI cloud computing to customers and are spending money freely.
Nebius appears to be on the right track to capitalize on the growing demand for neocloud computing capacity. But if its sales don't start closing the gap to its spending, and if profits don't come fast enough, investors may start cooling on this red-hot AI stock.
Nebius získala Inferize a začlenila její technologii do platformy Token Factory pro produkční AI inferenci. Cílem je zkrátit „idle GPU tax“ a zlepšit využití kapacity.
AMSTERDAM--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Nebius (Nasdaq: NBIS), the AI cloud company, today announced it has acquired Inferize, an inference optimization company whose technology shortens the time needed to launch and scale large AI models, making inference workloads elastic.
Inferize's technology and team have joined Nebius Token Factory, Nebius's managed inference platform for production AI.
Cold starts – the time models need to load before serving a single request – impose additional time and costs on teams running AI models in production at scale. This leaves assigned GPUs idle at launch time, when demand spikes and new instances spin up, and when weights are updated mid-run for example during reinforcement learning – and forces platforms to hold spare capacity just to hit their service-level targets.
Inferize's technology cuts this “idle GPU tax”, enabling capacity to scale much more closely with actual usage and driving higher capacity utilization and better token economics.
Danila Shtan, Chief Technology Officer of Nebius, said:
“Running inference well takes more than fast GPUs and optimized models. The whole system needs to respond when demand changes, including how quickly additional capacity is ready to serve customers. Inferize brings technology that accelerates that process and a team with deep expertise in GPU systems. We’re bringing both into Token Factory to make it more responsive to customer demand and get more useful work out of our infrastructure. The team’s contribution will extend well beyond this first integration.”
Inferize adds another layer to how Nebius runs production inference. Eigen AI brought optimization at the model, kernel and system levels into Nebius Token Factory, while Clarifai's core team and licensed technology added system-level inference and compute orchestration.
Guy Bortnikov, co-founder and CEO of Inferize, said:
"Keeping spare GPUs running is the price of being ready for demand. Removing that cost is what we built Inferize to do, and Nebius is where it can go straight into the platform. Our team will work across the stack with one objective: serving more customer demand from every GPU."
Founded in January 2026, the Inferize team had a working prototype within three months. Inferize’s engineers will work across Nebius Token Factory, starting with the integration of their technology.
The terms of the transaction were not disclosed.
About Nebius
Nebius, the AI cloud company, is building the full-stack platform for developers and companies to take charge of their AI future — from data and model training to production deployment. Founded on deep in-house technological expertise and operating at scale with a rapidly expanding global footprint, Nebius serves startups and enterprises building AI products, agents, and services worldwide.
Nebius is listed on Nasdaq (Nasdaq: NBIS) and headquartered in Amsterdam.
For more information please visit nebius.com.
Media kit nebius.com/media-kit.
Disclaimer
Forward-looking statements
This press release contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, which involve risks and uncertainties. All statements contained in this press release other than statements of historical fact, including, without limitation, statements regarding our future financial and business performance, strategy, expected growth, planned investments and capital expenditures, capacity expansion plans, anticipated future financing transactions and expected financial results, are forward-looking statements. The words "anticipate," "believe," "continue," "estimate," "expect," "guide," "intend," "likely," "may," "will" and similar expressions and their negatives are intended to identify forward-looking statements.
These forward-looking statements are subject to risks, uncertainties and assumptions, some of which are beyond our control. Actual results may differ materially from the results predicted or implied by such statements, and our reported results should not be considered as an indication of future performance. The potential risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ from the results predicted or implied by such statements include, among others: market, macroeconomic and geopolitical conditions; our ability to build, operate and manage our businesses to the desired scale; competitive pressures; technological developments; our ability to secure and retain clients; our ability to secure additional capital to enable the growth of the business; unpredictable sales cycles; and potential pricing pressures; as well as those risks and uncertainties related to our continuing businesses included under the captions "Risk Factors" and "Operating and Financial Review and Prospects" in our Annual Report on Form 20-F for the year ended December 31, 2025, filed with the SEC on April 30, 2026, which is available on our investor relations website at https://nebius.com/investor-hub and on the SEC website at www.sec.gov.
All information in this press release is as of the date hereof (unless stated otherwise). Except as required by law, we undertake no obligation to update or revise publicly any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, after the date on which the statements are made or to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events.
In addition, statements that "we believe" and similar statements reflect our beliefs and opinions on the relevant subject. These statements are based upon information available to us as of the date hereof and, while we believe such information forms a reasonable basis for such statements, such information may be limited or incomplete, and our statements should not be read to indicate that we have conducted an exhaustive inquiry into, or review of, all potentially available relevant information. These statements are inherently uncertain, and investors are cautioned not to unduly rely upon these statements.
Nebius letos vzrostl o 181,8 % díky silné poptávce po AI, ale investoři sledují riziko ředění kvůli vysokým kapitálovým výdajům a konvertibilním dluhopisům. Tržby za 2. čtvrtletí činily 582,3 mil. USD, z toho 574,9 mil. USD připadalo na AI cloud.
Nebius has surged 181% this year on a tidal wave of AI demand, a blockbuster Meta deal, and a $37 billion backlog, but a closer look at its financing structure reveals how much has to go right before today's shareholders…
This post may contain links from our sponsors and affiliates, and Flywheel Publishing may receive compensation for actions taken through them.
Nebius Group (NASDAQ:NBIS | NBIS Price Prediction) trades at $235.88. The stock has gained 181.8% year to date, making customer concentration, capex needs and share dilution critical to watch.
Nebius runs a full-stack AI cloud renting GPU compute, storage and inference services. The AI cloud produced $574.9M of $582.3M in second-quarter revenue. Shares rose from $88.62 in February to $208.50 in August, driven by a $27B five-year deal with Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META) and a $2B equity investment from NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA).
A $37.5 Billion Backlog Gives Bulls Years of Visibility Nebius holds $37.49B in remaining performance obligations covering several years. Second-quarter revenue grew 454%, and GAAP EPS of -$0.68 beat the -$0.8633 estimate. Adjusted EBITDA for the AI cloud reached $285.7M, up from $9.5M a year earlier.
Management said it “could sell today our entire 2027 capacity”, and its first capacity auction cleared 15% above prior highs. With a forward P/E of 46 and a PEG ratio of 0.511, bulls argue the stock remains cheap relative to growth.
Three Customers and $20.8 Billion in Convertibles Define the Exposure Three customers made up 24%, 21%, and 14% of second-quarter revenue, a combined 59%. Capex of $5.66B in the quarter far exceeded $2.25B of operating cash flow, and full-year capex guidance runs $20 to $25 billion.
The convertible notes carry a value of $8.5B on the books but a fair value of $20.8B, which points to heavy dilution if they convert. The company also sold 12.7M shares through its at-the-market program, and interest expense jumped to $119.1M from $4.8M. First-quarter revenue missed expectations by 32.74%, and the operating loss grew to $175.9M.
Prepayments Buy Time While the Buildout Proves Itself Management expects more than $9 billion in customer prepayments this year, with recent deals covering 50 to 60% of associated capex. New contracts with Reflection, Cohere and others reduce reliance on the largest buyers, part of the same picks-and-shovels AI expansion we mapped in a free report on seven companies powering AI data centers. Newly connected power takes months to produce revenue, so execution is moving ahead of reported results.
Analysts See 20% Upside as the Stock Trails Its Peak At $235.88, Nebius sits below the consensus target of $283.58, meaning 20.2% upside. Targets are estimates, and coverage is thin:
Strong Buy: 1 Buy: 4 Hold: 2 Year to date, the stock is up 181.8%, while the S&P 500 is up 11.84%. Over the past month, Nebius gained 14.33% as the index fell 0.58%. Even so, shares trade 21.3% below their 52-week high of $299.86, at roughly 48 times trailing sales.
What Nebius Must Prove Before Capacity Turns Into Revenue At $235.88, Nebius faces a financing test.
Spending guidance of up to $25 billion means more debt, convertibles or share sales before 2027 capacity comes online. Each new raise sets the cost today’s shareholders pay for future growth.
A stronger case needs third-quarter revenue showing that capacity deployed late in Q2 is contributing as promised, and the next financing leaning on asset-backed debt rather than new shares. A worse case would follow a delay at a major customer or another large revenue miss.
The stock is well off its high. Dilution risk remains until the company proves it can turn power into revenue. Watch quarterly prepayments, share count and how fast connected megawatts convert to revenue.
Nebius has the demand, but at $235.88 the share price already assumes financing will go smoothly, so execution remains the key test.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Nebius oznámil ve 2. čtvrtletí čtyři smlouvy na cloudové služby pro AI za více než 1 miliardu USD každá, zatímco poptávka po výpočetním výkonu dál převyšuje nabídku. Meta si navíc u Nebiusu v rámci pětileté dohody pronajme vyhrazenou kapacitu pro AI za 12 miliard USD s možností dalších 15 miliard USD.
The more I think about the AI supercycle, the less I think the investment case belongs exclusively to hyperscalers. That shift in perspective is why I now see Nebius Group (NBIS +0.85%) in a different light. The company is building an AI cloud platform that goes beyond model training, which is why it could play an even bigger role in the next phase of the AI supercycle.
The AI boom is a race to secure capacity Nebius says that demand for AI compute remains ahead of available supply. In fact, it signed four AI cloud contracts worth more than $1 billion each during the second quarter, while contract values with new customers increased more than ninefold.
Image source: Getty Images.
That shows how hyperscalers are already spending billions of dollars to lease capacity on third-party AI infrastructure, creating more opportunities for Nebius to provide capacity and meet that surging demand. It also means that Nebius doesn't need to compete with hyperscalers. Instead, it can help them expand.
One interesting example is Meta Platforms. Nebius announced a five-year agreement under which Meta will lease $12 billion in dedicated AI capacity beginning in 2027, with the potential for an additional $15 billion in capacity over the period. That puts the total potential contract value at around $27 billion.
Meanwhile, chipmaker Nvidia is already validating Nebius' business. It announced a $2 billion investment in Nebius alongside a partnership covering AI factory design, infrastructure, and agentic AI. Through the partnership, Nebius could deploy more than 5 gigawatts of Nvidia systems by the end of 2030.
But the opportunity is now expanding beyond AI training.
The next wave could be inference, agents, and enterprise While the first phase of the AI boom was defined by training AI models and developing consumer applications, the industry is now moving toward inference, AI agents, and enterprise. Nebius is positioning itself for that transition.
Today's Change
(
0.85
%) $
2.03
Current Price
$
239.38
Its partnership with Nvidia includes work on inference and agentic AI, as well as the development of infrastructure for robotics and physical AI, positioning the company to meet the future of compute demand instead of just relying on one established type of AI workload.
On top of that, the company's push toward enterprise use cases is gaining traction. Palantir named Nebius its preferred sovereign AI infrastructure partner. The companies plan to integrate Nebius into Palantir's enterprise environment, giving customers access to Nebius infrastructure while keeping their compute, data, and models within Palantir.
To help meet the growing demand for those use cases, Nebius is aggressively building out cloud capacity.
Nebius is rapidly expanding its infrastructure In May, Nebius broke ground on an AI factory in Independence, Missouri. It describes the project as its first gigawatt-scale digital infrastructure project in the U.S.
Nebius is also expanding in the U.K., where it committed around 1.7 billion pounds to build capacity across four sites. The planned deployments are based on Nvidia infrastructure and are expected to reach 65 megawatts when fully ramped up.
What's more interesting is that the company is finding ways to scale without owning everything. It announced a new infrastructure model under which its partners finance and own their data centers, while Nebius supplies its systems, software, and services stack and then brings that capacity to market.
The new approach could be a faster way to expand its AI cloud footprint without needing to finance every piece of infrastructure itself. More importantly, it gives Nebius an edge in the race to secure more AI capacity.
With all of that positioning underway, the real question for investors is what it means for the stock.
Is Nebius stock a buy right now? As the AI megatrend shifts toward inference, agentic AI, and enterprise applications, the demand for AI infrastructure will only continue to accelerate. Nebius is positioning itself right in the middle of that expansion, signing major customers and inking strategic partnerships, and expanding platforms, all of which make it a much more exciting way to invest in the AI supercycle.
NBIS v premarketu přidává 2 % poté, co William Blair zahájil pokrytí s doporučením Outperform. Nebius označil za výraznou AI cloud platformu s velkým měřítkem infrastruktury a silnými zákaznickými vztahy.
Nebius stock NBIS gained 2% in premarket trading on Wednesday after William Blair initiated coverage of the AI-focused cloud provider with an ‘Outperform’ rating.
Analyst Jason Ader said Nebius has several attributes that could help it become a differentiated AI-native cloud platform, including infrastructure scale, software capabilities, major customer relationships and access to low-cost capital, according to TheFly.
Ader described Nebius as “not just another neocloud”, and said the company’s current valuation does not fully reflect its long-term earnings potential.
William Blair highlighted Nebius’ infrastructure scale and software capabilities, alongside its relationships with major customers and access to capital, as factors that could differentiate the company from other neocloud providers.
The initiation follows a bullish call from BNP Paribas last week.
The firm upgraded Nebius to ‘Outperform’ from ‘Neutral’ and raised its price target to $399 from $260.
BNP Paribas said Nebius’ outlook had “meaningfully improved” since it began covering the company in June.
The analysts also said Nebius could approach $22 billion in annual recurring revenue by the end of 2027. They added that the company’s eventual 2027 guidance could materially reset market estimates higher.
Nebius has rapidly expanded its AI cloud infrastructure as demand for computing capacity increases.
The company reported second-quarter revenue of $582.3 million, representing a 454% increase from a year earlier.
Adjusted EBITDA rose from a loss of $21 million to earnings of $236.2 million, while its adjusted net loss narrowed 64% year over year to $33.2 million.
Nebius said the second quarter was its best commercial quarter, with four major AI cloud deals carrying an average total contract value of more than $1 billion each.
The company has also expanded its customer base and infrastructure. Its five-year agreement with Meta Platforms has a potential value of up to approximately $27 billion.
Nebius said in July that it had more than $40 billion in additional contracted revenue from investment-grade customers, including Microsoft and Meta.
The company also announced a $10 billion expansion to build an AI factory in Finland and has begun validating its first full Nvidia Vera Rubin NVL72 rack at its Finland data centre.
Nebius has also raised significant capital to support its infrastructure expansion. The company closed a $5.75 billion convertible-note offering in August.
The company has Nvidia as a passive stakeholder and has raised prices for leasing selected Nvidia chips on a pay-as-you-go basis from October 1.
Earlier this month, Palantir named Nebius its preferred sovereign AI infrastructure partner under a strategic agreement to provide Nebius compute and inference capabilities to eligible Palantir customers.
According to WSJ data, analysts have a consensus overweight rating on Nebius stock, with 14 buy ratings, one overweight rating, seven hold ratings, one underweight rating, and one sell rating.
CoreWeave a Nebius zůstávají v medvědím trhu, protože přetrvávají obavy z AI bubliny. CRWV je 53 % pod historickým maximem, NBIS 20 % pod letošním vrcholem.
CoreWeave and Nebius stocks are still in a bear market as AI bubble fears remain. CRWV was trading at $86.65 on Tuesday, down by 53% from its all-time high. Similarly, NBIS dropped to $240, down by 20% from its highest point this year.
To a large extent, CoreWeave, Nebius, and other neocloud companies are doing well. Their revenue growth is phenomenal, while their backlog is in a strong surge. In fact, the companies are having capacity problems, with Nebius’ management believing that it can sell out next year today.
The most recent results showed that CoreWeave’s revenue jumped by 112% in the second quarter to $2.6 billion. Its backlog soared to $104 billion, making it the biggest player in the industry.
Nebius, on the other hand, said that its revenue jumped to $582 million, up by 454% from the same period last year. Its half-year revenue rose by 529% to $981 million.
Still, despite this growth, the stocks are struggling to return to their all-time highs, with their short interest remaining above 10%.
One reason for this is the rising fear that we are in an artificial intelligence bubble that may burst in the coming months or years. Some top analysts like Ray Dalio, Michael Burry, Jim Chanos, and Patrick Boyle have warned about this bubble.
A major risk for CoreWeave and Nebius is that some of their AI lab clients are not yet profitable and are burning substantial sums of money. Anthropic made a loss of over $42 billion last year, while OpenAI is losing over $12.3 billion a quarter. OpenAI has warned its investors that it will burn over $280 billion by 2030.
The two companies have committed to spending billions of dollars in the next few years. Anthropic has inked a $45 billion deal with Nscale, $35 billion with Lambda, $10 billion with Volta, and a separate one with SpaceX.
The challenge, however, is that the AI industry is getting competitive, with Meta Platforms’ Muse gaining share. Also, Chinese open-weight models are seeing more demand because of their effectiveness and lower costs.
CoreWeave and Nebius are spending substantial sums of money in their data center rollout. In its statement, CoreWeave estimated that its capital expenditure for the year will be between $35 billion and $39 billion. Nebius is also spending billions of dollars.
These firms are getting this cash from GPU financing, which are made through special purpose vehicles. They simply put their deals as collateral for the financing. There are three main risks in this model.
The main risk is if customers start cancelling the contracts as a way of managing their costs. Another one is depreciation, something that may accelerate as newer GPUs come online. This means that the firms will need to boost their depreciation, while investing in newer chip models over time.
In other words, the debt has to amortize faster than the collateral loses value, and the customer contract has to outlast the loan. New chip generations arrive every year or so, which is what makes the race hard to win.
Further, the companies are diluting their investors. Nebius sold 12.7 million shares through June, raising $2.8 billion. It has 12.3 million shares outstanding that it can sell. CoreWeave’s outstanding shares have jumped to 457 million from 317 million last year.
Nebius od 1. října zdraží on-demand GPU Nvidia B300 o 21 % na 9,50 USD za hodinu. Firma tím podle článku potvrzuje napjatou nabídku AI výpočetního výkonu.
Nebius Group (NBIS -2.53%) is about to charge more for the computing power it rents out by the hour. On Thursday, Oct. 1, the artificial intelligence (AI) cloud company's on-demand rate for an Nvidia B300 graphics processing unit (GPU) climbs 21%, from $7.85 per hour to $9.50.
Nebius expects to spend $20 billion to $25 billion on capital expenditures this year, versus guided revenue of $3 billion to $3.4 billion. A company building capacity so fast normally needs to work to fill it, not raise prices on it.
But what does a price hike now say about how tight AI computing supply is? I think it says plenty. Still, the increase itself touches a smaller share of Nebius' business than the new rates imply.
Image source: Getty Images.
Even older chips cost moreThe Oct. 1 increase isn't the first this year. In early May, Nebius' pricing page showed the older H100 chip at $2.95 per hour and the B300 at $6.10.
After this round, the same chips will cost $4.50 and $9.50 -- around 53% and 56% more than five months before. This round includes four Nvidia GPUs (the H100, H200, B200, and B300), with hikes of 17% to 21%, plus Nebius' CPU-only servers.
What strikes me is the H100, a generation behind Nvidia's Blackwell chips (the B200 and B300). Rising prices for older hardware arguably say more about a shortage than a premium on the latest chip does. After all, Nebius' second-quarter shareholder letter already reported over 30% higher pricing for older-generation GPUs versus the first quarter.
Nebius is selling what it builds"[W]e sold out of capacity because, as fast as we bring capacity online, we can sell it," CFO Dado Alonso said on the company's second-quarter earnings call in August.
CEO Arkady Volozh went further in the shareholder letter, saying Nebius could sell all its 2027 capacity today on the terms of its newest deals. It's saving some for customers with immediate needs instead. What's more, its first capacity auction cleared at the highest price Nebius has seen for Nvidia's Blackwell chips, 15% over anything it had charged earlier.
Its latest partnership tells the same story. When Palantir Technologies made Nebius its preferred sovereign AI infrastructure partner on Sept. 8, both also said they'd work to bring new capacity online quicker.
In short, I think the hike is what it looks like: a provider that can't add capacity as fast as customers want it.
What does it do to revenue per megawatt?Less than the new rates could suggest. Nebius sells computing power both by the hour and under reserved-capacity contracts, but it doesn't break out how much revenue comes from each.
Still, at the end of June, Nebius had around $37.5 billion in remaining performance obligations (signed contract revenue it hasn't recognized yet), over 60 times its second-quarter revenue of $582 million. And these contracts are priced when they're signed, so an Oct. 1 increase doesn't reprice them.
The increase matters more as a benchmark for capacity Nebius hasn't sold yet. Showing how fast that price is rising, Nebius' annual contract value per megawatt went from a 2026 base of around $12 million to over $20 million on deals closed in the second quarter. Management also sees short-term deals at $40 million to $50 million per megawatt, and it signed the first one in the third quarter. And profitability has risen with those prices. The AI cloud business's non-GAAP (adjusted) margin on earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) almost doubled from the fourth quarter of 2025 to 45% in the first quarter. It widened again to around 50% in the second.
Today's Change
(
-2.53
%) $
-6.15
Current Price
$
237.33
Nebius also estimates the capital behind its second-quarter deals pays back in about one year and 10 months, down from two to three years earlier. For a business spending this much, a quicker payback means every new megawatt can rely less on outside funding.
Of course, shortage pricing can reverse. If supply catches up to demand while Nebius and its rivals keep building, hourly rates might drop as fast as they rose. And the build-out is being funded partly by $5.75 billion in convertible notes sold in August and around $2.8 billion in new shares sold through June.
Ultimately, the Oct. 1 increase is strong evidence of how tight AI computing supply is right now. But it's a sign more than a revenue driver.
With shares around $243 as of this writing, Nebius is valued at over $65 billion, or more than 20 times sales at the midpoint of management's 2026 revenue guidance. I think that price already assumes today's pricing holds well into 2027.
Nebius Group ve čtvrtek vyskočila o 9 % po zvýšení ratingu od BNP Paribas na Outperform a navýšení cílové ceny na 399 USD z 260 USD. Firma také podle zpráv chystá další zdražení GPU cloudových služeb o zhruba 20 % od 1. října.
Nebius Group N.V. (NASDAQ:NBIS) stock jumped to 9% Thursday after BNP Paribas upgraded the stock to Outperform from Neutral and raised its price target to $399 from $260.
The move also followed reports that Nebius plans another GPU cloud price increase, highlighting continued pricing power amid tight AI computing supply.
• Nebius Group shares are powering higher. Why are NBIS shares rallying?
Nebius Outpaces Cloud Infrastructure RivalsNebius shares have gained more than 122% over the past 12 months, compared with a 32% decline for CoreWeave, Inc. (NASDAQ:CRWV) and a 9% gain for IREN Ltd. (NASDAQ:IREN).
The company has benefited from aggressive capacity expansion, its strategic alliance with NVIDIA Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA) and stronger pricing amid an industry-wide GPU shortage.
NVIDIA previously invested $2 billion in Nebius to support its hyperscale AI cloud expansion.
Nebius Reportedly Plans 20% GPU Price IncreaseNebius reportedly plans to raise GPU cloud prices by roughly 20% starting Oct. 1 across several NVIDIA GPU models, including the H100, H200, B200 and B300.
The H100 rate is expected to increase to $4.50 from $3.85, while the H200 rate could rise to $5.40 from $4.50.
The proposed increases point to continued demand for high-end AI computing capacity and Nebius’ ability to charge more for GPU cloud services.
Analysts Offer Diverging ViewsNebius carries a Buy consensus rating with an average price target of $259.15.
Rothschild & Co initiated coverage with a Sell rating and an $84 price forecast on Sept. 21, while Truist Securities initiated coverage with Buy and a $355 forecast on Sept. 9.
Nebius Maintains Strong Technical TrendNebius remains above all its major moving averages, including the 20-day SMA of $220.95, 50-day SMA of $214.22, 100-day SMA of $219.56 and 200-day SMA of $163.41.
The 20-day average remains above the 50-day, while the 50-day stays above the 200-day, maintaining the longer-term upward trend.
Nebius Carries Significant ETF ExposureNebius represents 50.91% of the Leverage Shares 2X Long NBIS Daily ETF (NASDAQ:NBIG).
Significant inflows or outflows from the fund can translate into buying or selling of Nebius shares.
NBIS Price ActionNebius Group shares were up 9.21% at $247.49 at the time of publication on Thursday, according to Benzinga Pro data.
Photo: Shutterstock
Read Next
This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
Bank of America zvýšila odhad tržeb Nebius Group na fiskální rok 2027 na 12,7 miliardy USD a na rok 2028 na 27,3 miliardy USD. Zachovala doporučení buy a cílovou cenu 310 USD.
Bank of America (BofA) raised its revenue estimates for Nebius Group NV (NASDAQ: NBIS), forecasting substantial upside to Wall Street expectations as the artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure company expands capacity and uses differentiated pricing strategies.
The bank increased its fiscal 2027 revenue estimate to $12.7 billion from its previous forecast, compared with Street expectations of $12.2 billion, and raised its fiscal 2028 estimate to $27.3 billion versus $24.9 billion.
BofA reiterated its ‘buy’ rating and $310 price target, saying Nebius’ capacity allocation strategy allows it to generate more revenue from active power than peers.
Nebius uses long-duration contracts with hyperscalers to establish a stable utilisation base while reserving capacity for shorter contracts that command higher prices.
The bank estimates one- to three-year contracts generate about twice the revenue of hyperscaler rates, while three- to six-month contracts generate about four times the revenue per watt.
BofA said this approach could allow Nebius to generate higher revenue from a given level of capacity than reflected in current Street estimates.
The bank identified several areas where its assumptions could prove conservative, including the pace of capacity additions, conversion of connected power into active power and pricing dynamics.
Execution remains the main risk to its outlook, particularly Nebius’ ability to deliver planned capacity on schedule as it expands its infrastructure.
Higher revenue expectations also led Bank of America to raise its operating margin forecasts to 1.7% for fiscal 2027 from 0.2% and 9.7% for fiscal 2028 from 7.3%.
The bank expects Nebius to add 1GW of incremental annual capacity from fiscal 2027 and raised its capital expenditure forecasts to $35 billion in 2027 from $29 billion and about $40 billion in 2028 from $31 billion.
Nebius vyhrál kapacitní aukci za ceny o 15 % nad dosavadním maximem u Blackwell čipů. Výnosy za 2. čtvrtletí vzrostly na 582 milionů USD a backlog dosáhl 37,5 miliardy USD.
Nebius just cleared a capacity auction at prices that stunned even its own projections, and the gap between what customers are willing to pay and what the stock currently reflects tells a more complicated story than the tripling share price…
Nebius Group (NASDAQ:NBIS | NBIS Price Prediction) trades at $232.80, and the market is still catching up to how quickly Nebius’ AI compute pricing and backlog are expanding. The stock has tripled year to date, but the operating numbers behind that move keep accelerating faster than the multiple.
Nebius runs a full-stack AI cloud, with the Nebius AI Cloud segment producing roughly 90%+ of revenue and smaller stakes in autonomous delivery, edtech, and ClickHouse rounding out the group. It sells GPU capacity, inference, and orchestration to AI-native labs, quant firms, and hyperscaler customers looking for capacity the big three cannot build fast enough. Contracts with Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META) and Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) valued at up to $27B and $19.4B respectively, plus NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA)’s $2B strategic equity investment, have reset the market’s view of what this company can scale into.
Why Pricing Power Is the Real Story Q2 group revenue reached $582 million, up 454% year over year, with the AI Cloud segment growing 514% and annualized run-rate revenue hitting $3 billion at quarter end. Remaining performance obligations sit at $37.5B, giving multi-year revenue visibility that few AI names can match.
Nebius’ first capacity auction cleared at 15% above the highest price it had ever charged for Blackwell chips. Short-term contracts are being negotiated at $40 to $50 million per megawatt versus $20 to $25 million on core deals. Group adjusted EBITDA margin expanded to 41%. CEO Arkady Volozh said the company could “sell today our entire 2027 capacity” at current terms. A PEG ratio of 0.508 against forward growth suggests the multiple is not stretched relative to that trajectory.
Why the Balance Sheet Could Break the Trade Q2 capex hit $5.7 billion against operating cash flow of $2.3 billion. Full-year 2026 capex guidance runs to $20 to $25 billion. Convertible debt carries $8.5B on the balance sheet with a fair value of $20.8B, implying material dilution if the stock stays elevated.
Three customers accounted for 24%, 21%, and 14% of Q2 revenue. Interest expense surged to $119.1M from $4.8M a year prior. Nebius carries $12.1B in uncommenced lease obligations. Any softening in GPU demand or a delayed Vera Rubin ramp would leave expensive capacity chasing thinner pricing.
Why Some Investors Should Sit and Watch The stock trades at a 44.85 price-to-sales multiple and 46x forward earnings, with a beta of 1.436. That reflects forward optimism in a business still posting a $190.4M net loss.
Wait for Q3 to confirm Vera Rubin deployments are on schedule, that connected power lands inside the 800MW to 1GW target, and that the asset-light partnership model produces signed capacity. Any slip would thin the stock’s valuation cushion.
What the Numbers Actually Show NBIS currently trades at $232.80 with an analyst consensus target of $290.71, implying roughly 24.9% upside. Coverage is small: 1 strong buy, 3 buy, 2 hold, and zero sell ratings. Targets are only one data point.
NBIS is up 178.12% year to date and 134.42% over one year, against the S&P 500’s 13.43% YTD and 16.55% one-year gain. The 52-week range is $73.52 to $299.86.
Compute Tightness Before 2027 Prices Print At $232.80, Nebius Group looks well-positioned for further re-rating. Here is why.
The clearest path to appreciation runs through 2027 revenue recognition. Four landmark deals with Reflection, Cohere, a U.S. Neolab, and a large quant firm averaged more than a billion dollars each and start hitting the P&L late this year. Combined with the $37.5B RPO and ARR guidance of $7B to $9B by year-end, the 2027 top-line ramp is largely a delivery problem.
A capacity auction clearing 20% higher than pipeline for Blackwell and short-term GPU deals at premium megawatt rates mean incremental capacity is repricing upward. Customer prepayments fund 50-60% of associated capex, and management expects more than $9 billion of upfront funding this year, making the dilution math less painful than the convertible headline implies.
Watch for slips in Vineland or Pennsylvania buildouts, Vera Rubin delays, hyperscaler pricing counterattacks, or large customer renegotiations. Monitor connected power at year-end, the asset-light partnership pipeline, and Q3 gross margin.
At current prices, Nebius is being paid to build the AI compute the hyperscalers cannot, and pricing is rising faster than the multiple. It is the same infrastructure trade we mapped across seven non-chipmaker suppliers to the AI buildout in a free report you can grab here.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Nebius od návratu na burzu v říjnu 2024 vzrostl přibližně na desetinásobek díky velkým AI kontraktům. Firma nyní vykazuje závazky zákazníků přes 40 miliard USD.
Nebius Group (NBIS +2.21%) has one of the most unusual recent histories in the market. The stock was halted in February 2022, back when the company was still called Yandex. It didn't trade again until Oct. 21, 2024, once the Russian side of the business had been sold off.
Shares closed their first day back at $20. A $10,000 stake bought at that close has grown into about $105,000 in under two years, with the stock at about $209 as of this writing. And the run hasn't even been smooth: Shares peaked at $299.86 within the past year, about 43% above where they trade now.
Here's a closer look at what earned the run.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
The deals behind the runNebius came back to the market as an artificial intelligence (AI) cloud company, renting out computing power from large clusters of graphics processing units (GPUs) to companies building AI products, from start-ups to some of the biggest names in tech. What it didn't have yet was a customer list to match its ambitions.
That changed quickly. In December 2024, the company raised $700 million in a private placement at $21 per share. The buyers included Accel and Nvidia -- the same company whose chips fill Nebius' data centers.
The contracts followed. In September 2025, Microsoft signed a multi-year deal for dedicated capacity at a new Nebius data center in Vineland, New Jersey. That agreement is worth about $17.4 billion through 2031, and up to $19.4 billion if Microsoft adds services or capacity.
And in March, Meta Platforms committed to a five-year agreement that could reach about $27 billion. In total, management says the company now has more than $40 billion in customer commitments.
The reported numbers are catching upThe first of those contracts is starting to show up in the income statement, too.
Showing how quickly contracted capacity turns into sales once it comes online, Nebius grew its second-quarter revenue 454% year over year to $582.3 million, up from $105.1 million a year earlier and 46% above the first quarter's total. On a non-GAAP (adjusted) basis, earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) swung from a $21.0 million loss a year ago to $236.2 million in the second quarter -- an impressive 41% margin for a company spending this heavily.
That margin is the part of the report I find most telling. It arguably means the data centers Nebius already operates cover their costs, before depreciation on all that hardware -- the heavy spending is about capacity that hasn't arrived yet. In other words, the model appears to work where it's actually up and running.
Can revenue keep up with the spending?Revenue isn't keeping up with the spending yet, and for now the gap is deliberate.
First-quarter capital expenditures came to about $2.5 billion. They more than doubled from there, reaching around $5.7 billion in the second quarter.
For the full year, management expects capital expenditures of $20 billion to $25 billion against guided revenue of $3 billion to $3.4 billion, with customer prepayments expected to cover more than $9 billion of the bill. That works out to spending about seven times the revenue the company expects to report this year.
Today's Change
(
2.21
%) $
4.62
Current Price
$
213.99
Nebius can afford the gap for a while. It held $8.0 billion of cash at the end of June (some of it raised by selling new stock), and an August convertible-note sale brought in $5.75 billion more. Of course, a spending plan this size will likely mean more fundraising, and more debt or stock with it.
After all, much of the contracted capacity simply isn't built yet. The Meta capacity, for example, isn't slated to start coming online until early 2027. And revenue may trail the spending until more of those sites switch on.
Ultimately, the tenfold move wasn't luck. Nebius signed up some of the world's largest technology companies early, and the capacity due so far has been delivered on schedule.
But that history is already in the price. In short, today's buyer is paying about $209 for revenue that mostly arrives in 2027 and beyond, funded by spending that dwarfs this year's sales.
H100 rates go to $4.50 an hour from $3.85, with B300 up to $9.50 from $7.85 Summary
Nebius is lifting on-demand GPU rates between 17% and 21% from October 1, with CPU rates rising 25% to 41%.
Nebius Group N.V. NBIS rose 9.15% premarket after raising prices on its on-demand compute from October 1, according to a customer communication reshared on Reddit and X. IREN Ltd. IREN rose 5.16% and CoreWeave Inc. CRWV 5.69%.
Under the new rates, H100 hourly rates go to $4.50 from $3.85, an increase near 17%. H200 rises 20% to $5.40, B200 almost 19% to $8.50, and Nvidia's NVDA B300 about 21% to $9.50 from $7.85. For CPU, AMD AMD EPYC Genoa will increase 25% to $0.015 per vCPU-hour and Genoa memory up roughly 41% to $0.0045 per GiB-hour. The impact on any given customer's bill depends on their configuration and usage.
Nebius secured about $775 million in debt financing in July backed by deployed GPU infrastructure and contracted customer cash flows. Second-quarter revenue rose 454% to $582.3 million, with AI Cloud revenue up 514% to $574.9 million, and adjusted EBITDA swung to a $236.2 million profit from a $21 million loss. The company reaffirmed 2026 revenue guidance of $3 billion to $3.4 billion and expects ARR of $7 billion to $9 billion by year end.
Disclosures I am/we currently own positions in the stocks mentioned, and have NO plans to sell some or all of the positions in the stocks mentioned over the next 72 hours.
Nebius za poslední měsíc klesl o 23,58 %, ale Arete Research zvýšila cílovou cenu na 415 USD, což znamená asi 96% potenciál růstu. Firma zároveň potvrdila výhled výnosů na rok 2026 ve výši 3,0 až 3,4 miliardy USD.
Nebius shed nearly a quarter of its value in a single month despite explosive revenue growth, and one resolute Wall Street shop just raised its price target to a level that would require the stock to nearly double from here.
This post may contain links from our sponsors and affiliates, and Flywheel Publishing may receive compensation for actions taken through them.
Nebius Group (NASDAQ:NBIS | NBIS Price Prediction) trades at $212.19, while the average Wall Street price target sits at $290.71. That is roughly a 37% gap between where the stock is and where analysts think it should be within the next twelve months.
Nebius is a full-stack AI cloud infrastructure operator, renting GPU capacity to AI labs, hyperscalers, and enterprises. The company also owns TripleTen, Avride, Toloka, and an equity stake in ClickHouse. Wall Street has focused on Nebius as one of the few independent providers building multi-gigawatt capacity to serve the AI training and inference boom.
The gap matters because Arete Research, the Street-high shop on the name, sees room for close to a double. Its $415 price target, raised from $380 alongside a Buy/Outperform reiteration, implies roughly 96% upside from here. That is the number driving the headline.
September Reversed a Blistering Run The stock has fallen 23.58% over the past month, sliding from $277.68 on August 14 to $212.19, including a 5.5% drop on the most recent trading day alone. The selloff has been sharp, though it follows an explosive run that still leaves the stock up 153.5% year to date.
The pullback is more profit-taking than fundamental breakage. Q2 2026 revenue came in at $582.3 million, up 454% year over year, beating the $574.65 million consensus. GAAP EPS of -$0.68 beat the -$0.8633 estimate. Investors instead appear focused on Nebius issuing 12.7 million ATM shares at an average $223.60, the $8.13 billion H1 capex bill, and rising customer concentration, with three customers making up 24%, 21%, and 14% of Q2 revenue. The neocloud group also sold off together, with peers falling roughly the same amount.
Analysts Anchor to Contracted Backlog The bull case rests on backlog. Nebius carries $37.5 billion in remaining performance obligations and management cited $40 billion in contracted backlog on the Q2 call. Arete points to multi-year hyperscaler agreements with Microsoft and Meta, aggressive scaling past 1 GW of connected power, and high-margin unit economics as the pillars supporting its $415 target.
Management reiterated 2026 guidance of $3.0 billion to $3.4 billion in revenue, $7 billion to $9 billion in year-end ARR, and roughly 40% adjusted EBITDA margin. Q2 adjusted EBITDA reached $236 million at a 41% margin, and Nebius AI Cloud alone hit a 50% adjusted EBITDA margin. A Q2 capacity auction cleared at 15% above the highest price we ever charged before, per management, which analysts read as validation that Blackwell pricing is holding.
Coverage is thin but constructive. The consensus panel shows 1 Strong Buy, 2 Buy, and 2 Hold ratings, with no Sells. Recent EPS revisions have moved down as capex assumptions rise, yet the price target has climbed, an unusual combination that reflects analysts modeling steeper near-term losses on the way to a much larger 2027 revenue base. The Street sees the payoff as the pricing anchor.
Neoclouds Sold Off in Lockstep Nebius did not fall alone. Its closest US-listed peers tumbled the same week on the same concerns about capex intensity and financing.
CoreWeave (NASDAQ:CRWV) trades at $82.98, down 21.17% over the past month. The average target of $144.46 implies roughly 74% upside. Analyst posture leans bullish, with 5 Strong Buy, 21 Buy, 10 Hold, 1 Sell, and 1 Strong Sell ratings on a much larger coverage list. Reddit sentiment on the name is very bearish over one week.
Applied Digital (NASDAQ:APLD) sits at $24.58, off 21.22% on the month. Its $74.23 average target implies roughly 202% upside, easily the largest gap in the group. Coverage skews bullish at 2 Strong Buy, 8 Buy, and 1 Hold, though APLD carries greater execution risk as a smaller developer leaning on CoreWeave as its anchor tenant.
Targets are model outputs. Still, the biggest implied upside sits at Applied Digital, followed by Nebius at Arete’s $415 mark, then CoreWeave. On the group’s average target, Nebius screens as the most balanced setup: massive backlog, positive EBITDA, and moderate consensus upside. All three names are riding the same data-center buildout, and we profiled seven of the picks-and-shovels suppliers powering it in a free report on AI infrastructure beyond the chipmakers.
What the Stock and the Targets Actually Say Nebius trades at $212.19 against a consensus target of $290.71, drawn from 5 covering analysts. The implied upside to consensus is roughly 37%, and to Arete’s Street-high $415 is roughly 96%.
The stock is up 153.5% year to date and 134.7% over the trailing year. The S&P 500 is up 11.57% year to date and down 2% over the past month. Nebius has trounced the index in 2026 but underperformed it sharply over the past four weeks, which is what created the current gap to targets.
Valuation stays rich. The stock trades at a price-to-sales ratio of 42 on TTM revenue of $1.36 billion, and a forward P/E of 46. That is a growth multiple, and it requires the ARR ramp to land.
Where I Come Down on Nebius The bull case on Nebius rests on management converting the $40 billion contracted backlog into 2027 revenue at the pricing shown in the Q2 auction, hitting the $7 billion to $9 billion year-end ARR band, and financing the buildout without a punishing round of dilution. That path gets analysts to $290 and gives Arete’s $415 a real shot.
The bear case builds if capex keeps outrunning revenue, if customer concentration turns into contract renegotiation leverage, or if the $8.5 billion convertible stack starts pressuring the equity as it converts. Any of those makes the current multiple hard to defend even with 454% revenue growth.
My lean is cautiously constructive. The fundamentals justify the bull case, the September drop looks like digestion of a monster run rather than a thesis break, and the Street has not blinked on targets. The 37% path to consensus looks reachable. The 96% path to Arete’s number requires everything to break right.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Nebius zakončil 2. čtvrtletí s 37,49 miliardy USD ve zbývajících plněních smluvních závazků a asi 40 miliardami USD v celkovém kontrahovaném backlogu. Zákaznické zálohy mají v roce 2026 poskytnout více než 9 miliard USD financování.
A single line on a balance sheet keeps pulling one investor back to the same stock, and it has nothing to do with AI excitement or analyst ratings. The signal hiding in plain sight changes how this company funds its…
I keep hitting the buy button on Nebius Group (NASDAQ:NBIS | NBIS Price Prediction) because of a single number on the balance sheet: $37.49 billion in remaining performance obligations. That is contracted, multi-year revenue customers have already committed to pay.
One Reason Backed by Signed Contracts Hype describes what could happen. A signed contract describes what has already been decided. Nebius ended Q2 2026 with that $37.49 billion backlog and, according to management, roughly $40 billion in total contracted backlog and customer commitments. Against a market cap near $49.49 billion, that is book-of-business visibility most cloud names can only advertise.
The composition matters more than the headline. Approximately 70% of Q2 deals carried upfront prepayments, and customer prepayments are expected to provide more than $9 billion of funding in 2026 alone, covering 50% to 60% of the associated capital expenditures. Customers, in effect, fund the factory. That directly reduces the equity and debt Nebius must raise, which is what any long-term holder cares about.
What the Numbers Actually Show Q2 group revenue landed at $582.30 million, up 454.04% year over year, beating consensus. The Nebius AI Cloud segment grew 514% and posted a 50% adjusted EBITDA margin. Group adjusted EBITDA reached $236 million against a prior-year loss of $21 million. Annualized run-rate revenue hit $3 billion in June, up from $1.9 billion at the end of March.
Then there is the pricing signal. Nebius ran a capacity auction that cleared at 15% above the highest price it had ever charged for Blackwell-generation chips, and 20% above its Blackwell pipeline pricing. Short-duration premium contracts price at $40 million to $50 million per megawatt versus $20 million to $25 million per megawatt on core deals. That is live price discovery in a market starving for capacity.
Nebius vs. the Obvious Alternatives Readers will ask why I do not just own Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) or NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) for AI infrastructure exposure. Both are Nebius validators. Microsoft signed a Nebius agreement valued at $17.4 billion to $19.4 billion, and NVIDIA put $2 billion of strategic equity into the company on top of pre-funded warrants. When the dominant AI chipmaker and one of the largest software platforms both write checks in the same direction, I want the pure-play they are writing to. Nebius AI Cloud was 98% of group revenue in Q2. Any diversified hyperscaler dilutes that exposure by design.
Concentration Risk I Track Every Quarter Three customers made up 24%, 21%, and 14% of Q2 revenue. Convertible debt carrying value sits at $8.5 billion with fair value of $20.8 billion, and GAAP EPS was -$0.68 for the quarter. Dilution and concentration are real. What keeps me in the position is that customer prepayments and the $775 million asset-backed facility Nebius signed in July 2026 are progressively replacing dilutive financing with contract-collateralized debt at SOFR plus 250 basis points. Every dollar of prepaid contract revenue is a dollar the company does not have to raise from me.
What Keeps the Buy Button Active Contracted power steps up to 5 gigawatts by year-end 2026, and CEO Arkady Volozh told the Q2 call, “We could sell today our entire 2027 capacity on these terms if we wanted to.” When a supplier has to ration what customers are willing to prepay for, I keep buying. Nebius is one slice of the broader picks-and-shovels trade behind the AI buildout, and we profiled seven more suppliers powering, cooling, and networking these data centers in a free report you can grab here.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Akcie Oracle v pondělním obchodování klesají o 5 % poté, co společnost oznámila, že náklady na propouštění budou o 700 milionů USD vyšší. Stejný výprodej stáhl CoreWeave i Nebius, obě také o 5 %.
Shares of Oracle (NYSE:ORCL | ORCL Price Prediction) are sliding in early Monday trading after the company disclosed that layoff costs would run meaningfully higher than previously flagged, overwhelming a friendlier signal from Executive Chair Larry Ellison. Oracle stock is…
Shares of Oracle (NYSE:ORCL | ORCL Price Prediction) are sliding in early Monday trading after the company disclosed that layoff costs would run meaningfully higher than previously flagged, overwhelming a friendlier signal from Executive Chair Larry Ellison. Oracle stock is down 5% to $142.88, and that single-stock move is pulling the rest of the artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure complex lower alongside it.
CoreWeave (NASDAQ:CRWV) stock is falling 5% to $84.86, and Nebius Group (NASDAQ:NBIS) stock is down 5% to $214.19. Neither name has posted its own catalyst this morning, so the two are trading as sympathy plays on the Oracle disclosure. The near-identical percentage move across all three names points to a group repricing rather than any single-company issue.
The First Trust Cloud Computing ETF (NASDAQ:SKYY) is up 0.2%, while the Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ) is down 1.14%. Broad cloud exposure is holding steady even as large-cap technology slips, which puts the selling squarely on the capital-intensive compute names rather than cloud as a category. That divergence is the cleanest read on today’s action, and it tells you where the concern actually sits.
Layoff Costs Outweigh Ellison’s Canceled Sale Oracle disclosed in a regulatory filing on Friday that it is expanding its planned job cuts, raising the estimated cost of its restructuring plan by $700 million. The company attributed the increase largely to severance and related exit costs and tied part of the workforce reduction to how it is deploying AI across parts of its business. This disclosure lands as Oracle funds a heavy data center buildout with debt and share issuance while its free cash flow sits in negative territory, and that financing question is what has kept pressure on the stock.
Cutting the other way, Ellison canceled a preset trading plan that would have allowed the sale of up to $7.5 billion of his Oracle stock. Oracle said in a statement that no shares were sold under the plan and that Ellison has no other plans to sell any of his Oracle stock, without giving an explanation for the cancellation. That kind of insider signal usually rallies a name, but the financing question is louder today than the vote of confidence from the company’s largest individual shareholder.
Sympathy Selling Hits CoreWeave and Nebius Neither CoreWeave nor Nebius has issued a release this morning, and both are trading down almost as much as Oracle. That pattern points to the AI capacity pacing debate rather than anything company-specific, since the group tends to move together when the story shifts toward the sustainability of hyperscale spending. CoreWeave and Nebius carry similar profiles of large contracted backlogs funded by aggressive capital spending, which makes them natural co-movers with Oracle on days like this.
Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei called over the weekend for frontier AI companies to slow the pace of model capability development, and OpenAI CEO Sam Altman backed him. Altman also stated OpenAI won’t go public this year, which matters to Oracle because OpenAI is one of its most important AI customers and a key anchor for its contracted backlog. A slower model buildout would ripple straight into the demand assumptions supporting the compute buildout.
The connection between AI model developer sentiment and hyperscale capacity demand runs directly through contracted commitments. If frontier labs slow their training cadence, the backlogs underpinning CoreWeave, Nebius, and Oracle’s cloud infrastructure would face renewed scrutiny even absent any cancellations (we profiled seven suppliers powering that buildout, from power to cooling and networking, in a free report you can grab here). That’s the specific risk being priced across the group this morning.
What to Watch Oracle is the AI cloud name where the funding question is sharpest, since it’s building capacity on borrowed money and share issuance against contracts rather than out of existing cash flow. The bull case is that cloud infrastructure demand is real, the contracted backlog is large, and an insider holding a very large block just took his exit off the table. A bear case counters that the buildout runs on leverage while free cash flow is negative, and a slower AI cadence would undercut the demand that justifies the spending.
Ellison taking his sale off the table is a genuine positive for Oracle, and it complicates any narrative that management is quietly de-risking ahead of trouble. Even so, a strong quarter hasn’t steadied Oracle stock this month, and readers can watch for whether that insider signal proves enough to blunt the balance-sheet concerns as the week develops. Position sizing should reflect the capex-driven volatility still built into their exposure.
Oracle’s operating story remains one of contracted backlog growth against a capex-heavy build, and today’s action leans hard on the financing side of that equation. Any additional disclosure that clarifies whether the $700 million restructuring increase is fully sized would help settle the debate, according to Oracle. Until then, Oracle stock is likely to keep taking cues from broader AI capacity sentiment rather than from anything the company has already announced.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Nebius potvrdila kapitálové výdaje na rok 2026 ve výši 20–25 miliard USD a míří na 5 GW smluvního výkonu do konce roku. Zhruba 70 % obchodů ve 2. čtvrtletí zahrnovalo zálohy od zákazníků, které mají v roce 2026 přinést přes 9 miliard USD.
Key Takeaways Nebius reaffirmed 2026 capex of $20-$25B as it targets 5 GW of contracted power by year-end.Roughly 70% of second-quarter deals included prepayments, expected to provide over $9B of 2026 funding.Nebius had $8B in cash and a roughly $40B committed backlog supporting asset-backed financing options. Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS - Free Report) is pursuing an aggressive capacity expansion strategy as demand for artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure remains robust. The company spent nearly $5.7 billion in capital expenditures in the second quarter of 2026 on GPUs, GPU-related hardware and data center footprint expansion.
The sizable spending comes as Nebius expands its infrastructure footprint. The company has raised its year-end contracted power target to 5 gigawatts and plans to build more than 1 gigawatt of new capacity in 2027. Management also continues to expect 800 megawatts to 1 gigawatt of connected power in 2026.
Nebius reaffirmed the 2026 capex guidance of $20-$25 billion, underscoring the investment intensity required to support its growth ambitions.
Customer prepayments could help reduce the external financing burden associated with this buildout. Management noted that nearly 70% of second-quarter deals included upfront prepayments, and customer prepayments are expected to provide more than $9 billion of funding in 2026. The prepayment terms secured in the second quarter cover approximately 50%-60% of associated capex, thereby reducing dependence on debt and equity.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Nebius also generated $2.3 billion in operating cash flow during the quarter with $8 billion in cash and cash equivalents as of June 30, 2026.
The company added that it will use various funding sources to fund capacity expansion. Under its at-the-market (“ATM”) equity program, NBIS also issued 12.7 million Class A shares, generating gross proceeds of approximately $2.8 billion in the second quarter. NBIS considers ATM as a flexible funding tool. As of June 30, 12.3 million shares remain available under the program.
Further, Nebius is supplementing these sources with asset-backed financing. Management highlighted that its $775 million debt facility, priced at SOFR plus 250 basis points, is backed by deployed GPU infrastructure and contracted cash flows from an investment-grade customer. Management sees its roughly $40 billion committed backlog as supporting further asset-backed financing opportunities.
Overall, customer prepayments, operating cash flow and contracted backlog provide meaningful support for Nebius’ elevated investment program. Still, the payoff hinges on execution, continued AI demand and the ability to scale profitably amid increasing competition from the likes of CoreWeave (CRWV - Free Report) and tech giants like Microsoft (MSFT - Free Report) and Amazon.
Capex Plans for CompetitorsMicrosoft is a structurally dominant force in the tech space. MSFT’s capex spending dwarfs spending for both NBIS and CRWV. Fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 capex stood at $41 billion, with roughly two-thirds of that spend going toward short-lived assets, primarily CPUs and GPUs, and the rest was for long-lived assets. Management has guided capex to exceed $50 billion in the first quarter of fiscal 2027. The company projects the fiscal 2027 capex to increase year over year, supported by demand signals across its portfolio. Meanwhile, following a lease-accounting-related shift, Microsoft has now put its calendar 2026 capex expectation at approximately $175 billion.
Microsoft added 31 data centers across five continents during the quarter and another 1 gigawatt of capacity, while expecting to double overall capacity within two years.
CoreWeave is another rapidly growing AI infrastructure company. CRWV is aggressively expanding its AI infrastructure to meet increasing customer demand, necessitating massive capacity additions. 2026 capital expenditures are now projected to be between $35 billion and $39 billion (up from $31-$35 billion), indicating the scale of CoreWeave’s AI infrastructure ambitions.
Capex was $9.4 billion, while construction in progress increased sequentially to $11.9 billion in the second quarter of 2026. Management noted that under a typical five-year contract, capex is front-loaded and requires a combination of debt, customer prepayments and other corporate-level capital to fund buildouts.
NBIS Price Performance, Valuation and EstimatesNebius stock has lost 12% in the past month compared with the Internet – Software and Services industry’s decline of 4.2%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
NBIS’ shares are trading at a 12-month forward price/sales multiple of 5.95X, above the Internet Software Services industry’s 4.13X.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NBIS’ earnings for 2026 has been revised upward over the past 60 days.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
NBIS currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Nebius just auctioned its first Blackwell capacity above any price it has ever charged, and management says it could sell all of 2027 right now but is choosing not to. Whether that restraint makes the stock a buy at these…
At its current $243.88 share price, Nebius Group (NASDAQ:NBIS | NBIS Price Prediction) looks compelling for investors focused on the next leg of AI compute pricing power. Shares have run hard, but management’s most recent disclosures suggest the pricing story is only beginning to inflect.
Nebius operates a full-stack AI cloud platform spanning compute, storage, managed services, and inference, with its Token Factory targeting open-model deployment. NVIDIA‘s (NASDAQ:NVDA) strategic equity investment and Exemplar Cloud designation place Nebius inside the reference architecture for Blackwell and Vera Rubin builds, alongside anchor contracts with Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META) and Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT). The stock has climbed from $88.62 at the February 2026 filing to today’s level as capacity milestones and record run-rate revenue have landed in sequence.
Why Full-Capacity Pricing Is the Real Story The Q2 earnings call reframed the thesis. CEO Arkady Volozh said Nebius “could sell today our entire 2027 capacity on these terms if we wanted to”, but is deliberately holding capacity back for premium short-duration deals. Its first Blackwell capacity auction cleared 15% above the highest price the company had ever charged, and short-duration contracts are being negotiated at $40 million to $50 million per megawatt versus $20 million to $25 million on mid-term deals.
Q2 revenue reached $582.3M, up 454% YoY, with group adjusted EBITDA of $236 million at a 41% margin. Management raised contracted power to 5 gigawatts by year-end, RPO stands at $37.5B, and ARR guidance of $7B to $9B by year-end 2026 was reaffirmed. Four landmark Q2 deals averaged more than a billion dollars each.
Where the Bear Argument Bites Hardest The build is capital-intensive at unprecedented scale. FY 2026 capex guidance sits at $20 billion to $25 billion, and Q2 interest expense surged to $95 million from roughly $4.8 million a year prior. Convertible debt carries $8.5B at cost but $20.8B in fair value, embedding real dilution risk. The ATM program placed 12.7 million Class A shares at an average of $224, with 12.3 million shares still authorized.
Three customers accounted for 24%, 21%, and 14% of Q2 revenue. GAAP net loss came in at $190.4M despite the EBITDA inflection, and revenue missed consensus in three of the four quarters preceding the Q2 beat. FY 2026 EPS consensus has been cut to -$2.5183 from -$1.6233 ninety days ago.
Reasons Some Investors Would Rather Sit Tight NBIS is up 191.36% YTD versus 12.32% for the S&P 500, and trades at roughly 45x forward earnings and 45x trailing sales. Much of the ARR ramp, 5 GW power target, and 40% EBITDA margin outlook is arguably discounted at these levels. Execution on Pennsylvania (1.2 GW), Finland (310MW), and Missouri (1.2 GW) sites still has to land on schedule, and every one of those gigawatts has to be powered and cooled by somebody (we rounded up seven suppliers doing exactly that work in a free AI infrastructure report).
Patient investors could wait for Q3 revenue to validate the $906.6M consensus and Q4 to test the ARR range. Cost of patience is real if auction pricing keeps climbing, and so is the cost of adding at fresh 52-week highs.
What the Data Actually Says Nebius trades at $243.88 with a market cap near $61.5B and forward P/E near 45. The 4-analyst mean target of $286.69 sits above the current share price, though price targets are one data point and not a guarantee. The ratings breakdown:
Strong Buy: 1 Buy: 2 Hold: 1 Sell: 0 Recent performance separates NBIS from the market: up 22.22% in one week, 29.74% over one month, 191.36% YTD, and 280.71% over one year. SPY returned 0.55% for the week, -0.94% over one month, and 12.32% YTD. FY 2026 revenue consensus sits at $3.34B across 17 analysts, rising to roughly $11.97B for FY 2027.
Verdict on Nebius at Current Levels At $243.88, the setup for Nebius Group looks constructive. Here is why.
Q2’s pricing signal is the pivotal development. When a supplier can auction Blackwell capacity 15% above its prior high and command $40 million to $50 million per megawatt on short-duration deals, ARR guidance of $7B to $9B reads as a floor built on mid-term contracted pricing that management is deliberately leaving room to exceed.
Three near-term catalysts drive the path higher: Q3 and Q4 2026 results validating ARR against the $906.6M and $1.45B consensus prints, an initial 2027 revenue guide from management, and additional asset-backed debt at SOFR plus 250 basis points that eases reliance on dilutive equity. The July $775M facility is the template. Scaling it makes the convertible overhang more manageable.
Risk/reward at $243.88 demands careful sizing after a 191% YTD run. The thesis breaks if Q3 revenue misses the $906.6M bar, if the 5 GW power target slips, or if auction pricing rolls over. Short of those signals, the setup favors owning the operator that keeps proving pricing power in a supply-constrained market.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Nebius (NBIS) dnes vzrostl o více než 10 % po oznámení partnerství s Palantir, který jej označil za preferovaného partnera pro suverénní AI infrastrukturu. Akcie se dostaly na denní maximum 245 USD, nejvýše od 18. srpna.
Buy NBIS. The Palantir “preferred sovereign AI infrastructure” deal is a credibility shock that should pull in more enterprise workloads, and management is already capacity-constrained (sold out for the year, selling 2027 capacity). The chart confirms trend strength (above the 50-day MA, inverted head-and-shoulders) with a clear path: reclaim/hold $250, then push toward $300 and $312 if resistance breaks.
Key Risk: Palantir’s partnership doesn’t translate into incremental revenue fast enough, and the stock sells off on dilution/cash burn fears.
CoreWeave (CLOV) / IREN (IREN) neocloud sympathy
Buy CLOV and IREN as a basket. Nebius is moving with the same “neocloud” tape (CoreWeave and IREN cited as mirroring performance). If Palantir is standardizing sovereign AI infrastructure, the second-order effect is more procurement across the whole GPU cloud peer group, lifting sentiment and order flow beyond just Nebius.
Key Risk: The move is purely Nebius-specific (no broader customer shift), and the market rotates out of neoclouds after the initial headline fades.
Nebius stock surged by over 10% today, September 8, continuing a recovery that started on Tuesday last week when it bottomed at $194.76. It jumped to a high of $250, its highest level since August 18 this year, mirroring the performance of other neocloud companies like CoreWeave and IREN.
NBIS stock went parabolic after the company announced a major partnership with Palantir, one of the biggest software players in the industry.
In a statement, Palantir said that it will use Nebius as its preferred sovereign AI infrastructure partner. As part of this deal, Palantir will bring Nebius compute and inference endpoints inside Palantir enterprise perimeter.
This means that Palantir customers will have access to Nebius’s cloud and inference infrastructure. Alex Karp, Palantir’s CEO, said:
“Nebius’ compute infrastructure powers your ability to run your own AI models under conditions you control. Our ontology and their infrastructure will undergird the sovereignty our partners are demanding.”
Palantir joins a long list of customers who are using Nebius services. Some of the most notable ones are Microsoft, Meta Platforms, Cloudflare, and Revolut. Its demand is so high such that the management insisted that it was fully sold out for the year, and that it was in a position to sell its 2027 capacity today.
READ MORE: Michael Burry shorts Nebius stock: Is it a buy or sell before earnings?
The most recent results showed that Nebius Group’s revenue growth continues growing, with the management expecting it to keep growing. Its revenue surged by 454% in the second quarter to $582 million, with its six-month figure rising to $981 million.
The challenge, however, is that this growth is coming at a cost. For example, its depreciation and amortization rose from $75 million in the second quarter of last year to over $259 million. This is a big number, which means that its D&A is about 44% of the total revenue.
The company’s capital expenditure continued growing, reaching over $5.7 billion as it continues to spend. It is funding its spending through borrowing and using customer prepayments. In its statement, the management said that it expected to receive about $9 billion in customer prepayments.
Worse, the company has funded its capital expenditure through share sales. It sold 12.7 million shares through June, raising $2.8 billion in cash. It has about 13 million in outstanding shares that it can sell. This explains why it has a short interest of about 20%.
NBIS stock chart | Source: TradingView
The daily chart shows that the NBIS stock has soared in the past few days, moving from a low of $194.76 last week to a high of $245. A closer look shows that it has already crossed the 50-day moving average and formed an inverted head-and-shoulders pattern. These technicals are usually high bullish.
Nebius is attempting to move above the Major S/R pivot point of the Murrey Math Lines tool at $250. Therefore, the most likely scenario is where it continues rising, potentially to the strong pivot reverse level of $312. This view will be confirmed if it crosses the resistance at $300.
Nebius has surged over 200% in a year on the back of marquee deals and a $37.5 billion backlog, yet three customers still drive nearly 60% of revenue and a $20 billion capex bill looms. The setup has two very…
This post may contain links from our sponsors and affiliates, and Flywheel Publishing may receive compensation for actions taken through them.
At $206.32, Nebius Group (NASDAQ:NBIS | NBIS Price Prediction) sits in a setup that warrants patience. After a violent rerating this year, the stock trades on the assumption that every marquee contract, every megawatt, and every financing round lands on schedule, which warrants pause before adding.
Nebius runs an AI cloud supplying GPU compute, storage, and software to model developers and enterprises, with the Nebius AI Cloud segment producing $574.90 million of the group’s $582.30 million in Q2 revenue. Smaller subsidiaries include TripleTen in edtech and Avride in autonomous delivery, plus a stake in ClickHouse.
The rerating has been driven by anchor deals with Microsoft and Meta, a $2.0B pre-funded warrant investment from NVIDIA, and Nasdaq-100 inclusion earlier this year, per Yahoo Finance coverage from June. The demand pull here is the same one lifting the power, cooling, and networking suppliers we profiled in a free report on seven AI infrastructure names that aren’t chipmakers.
Bull Case: Backlog Is Doing the Talking Q2 revenue grew 454.04% year over year and beat consensus by 1.33%, with the AI cloud unit expanding 514% and cost of revenues improving to 23% from 29%. Group adjusted EBITDA reached $236 million at a 41% margin, and annualized run-rate revenue hit $3 billion.
Remaining performance obligations sit at $37.5B, and management raised its year-end contracted power target to 5 gigawatts. A capacity auction cleared at 15% above prior peak Blackwell pricing, and Arkady Volozh said Nebius “could sell today our entire 2027 capacity on these terms if we wanted to.”
Bear Case: Capital Intensity and Concentration Three customers represented 24%, 21%, and 14% of Q2 revenue. H1 capital expenditures already hit $8.13 billion, with full-year 2026 capex guided to $20 billion to $25 billion. Convertible debt carries at $8.5B with fair value of $20.8B, and interest expense surged to $119.1M from $4.8M.
Uncommenced lease obligations sit at $12.1B, the May ATM already sold 12.7 million shares at a weighted $223.60, and Nebius competes head-on with Azure, AWS, and Google Cloud, a race that requires perpetual capital deployment into next-generation chips. Q3 25, Q4 25, and Q1 26 all missed revenue consensus.
Two-Sided Setup: Patience Required The story is genuinely two-sided. Execution has been strong on capacity, marquee contracts, and margin expansion, but current valuation hinges on hitting the $7B to $9B ARR exit target while navigating global power grid queue delays and steady HBM and GPU supply allocations.
There is also residual sentiment around historical Yandex ties that can occasionally create noise among institutional compliance desks, even though the corporate separation is legally complete. What to watch: quarterly ARR progression toward the guide, connected power reaching the 800 megawatts to 1 gigawatt target, and customer diversification beyond the top three.
Valuation and Targets Shares trade at $206.32 against an average analyst target of $286.69, implying roughly 39% upside if consensus proves right. Forward P/E sits at 68 and EV/revenue at 45.
Coverage skews constructive, with 1 Strong Buy, 8 Buy, 4 Hold, 0 Sell, and 1 Strong Sell. NBIS is up 146.48% year to date against the S&P 500’s 12.48%, and up 201.99% over one year versus 18.91% for the index.
Key Observations: Setup Requires Patience At $206.32, Nebius sits in a wait-and-see setup for researchers. The bull thesis is real, but the entry point implies near-flawless execution across power delivery, GPU allocation, and customer diversification through the second half of the year.
The next catalyst pair matters most: Q3 revenue against the $899 million consensus, and connected-power progress toward the year-end target. A clean beat with visible customer broadening would materially improve the risk/reward profile observed today.
The scenario that would meaningfully weaken the setup is a second consecutive quarter of ARR conversion slippage combined with fresh equity issuance at lower prices, since the $8.5B convertible stack and remaining ATM capacity keep dilution live. With the stock already up 146.48% YTD, the margin of safety has compressed materially.
From a research standpoint, waiting one or two quarters carries limited informational cost relative to the risk embedded in paying growth-stock multiples for a business whose top three customers still generate 59% of revenue.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Nebius uzavřel emisi konvertibilních dluhopisů za zhruba 5,75 miliardy USD, více než původně plánovaných 4,5 miliardy USD. Akcie v úterý po poledni vzrostly o 4 %.
Nebius just closed a convertible debt deal that blew past its own raised target, and instead of punishing the stock, investors sent it higher. Here is why the size of this raise matters more than the dilution it brings.
Nebius Group (NASDAQ:NBIS | NBIS Price Prediction) stock is up 4% to $218.47 Tuesday midday, snapping a six-session losing streak that had built as the market braced for a large convertible deal. The rebound arrived right after the company disclosed a raise that came in larger than the market had expected. Year to date through Monday’s close, Nebius Group stock was up 152%, so the recent slide interrupted a strong 2026 run.
For context, the First Trust Cloud Computing ETF (NASDAQ:SKYY) is down 0.1% to $158.77 in Tuesday trading, drifting as software names cool off. Meanwhile, Global X Data Center & Digital Infrastructure ETF (NASDAQ:DTCR) is up 2% to $28.53, tracking a firmer bid across data-center REITs and semiconductor names tied to AI buildouts.
Bigger Raise Draws Bigger Demand Nebius announced Monday the closing of a private offering of convertible senior notes with aggregate gross proceeds of approximately $5.75 billion, sold to qualified institutional buyers. The deal came in two series: 0.50% convertible notes due 2030 with $3.45 billion in aggregate original principal, and 4.50% convertible notes due 2034 with $2.3 billion in original principal. Initial purchasers exercised their options in full for an additional $450 million of the 2030 notes and $300 million of the 2034 notes.
The total exceeded Nebius’s initial $4.5 billion target, which had been raised to $5 billion last week. Investors appear to be reading the upsize as validation of demand for the company’s AI infrastructure buildout, which is anchored by long-term contracted capacity (we profiled seven suppliers powering that buildout, from power to cooling, in a free report you can grab here). Order books that clear at a higher size and a low 0.50% coupon on the front tranche suggest institutional appetite for exposure to neocloud growth.
Dilution Stack Grows Alongside Backlog Alongside the new offering, Nebius entered privately negotiated exchange agreements with certain holders of its 2.00% convertible notes due 2029 and 3.00% convertible notes due 2031, swapping $400 million of the 2029 notes and $400 million of the 2031 notes for approximately 15.8 million Class A ordinary shares. The company disclosed that those holders may sell the shares in the open market or unwind hedge positions, activity that “could decrease (or reduce the size of any increase in) the market price of the Class A shares.” The exchange effectively swaps a portion of the older notes for equity ahead of their scheduled maturities.
Proceeds from the raise will fund data-center construction and build-out, investment in its full-stack AI cloud, expansion of its data-center footprint, procurement of GPUs and other key components, and general corporate purposes, according to the company. Long-term committed capacity contracts represent $37.5 billion in remaining performance obligations, and three customers each represent more than 10% of quarterly revenue. That concentration cuts both ways, providing visibility while tightening the company’s reliance on a handful of anchor tenants.
Neocloud Peers Set the Frame The bull case rests on customer demand. Nebius signed a five-year, $12 billion AI infrastructure deal with Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META) and is targeting 800 MW to 1 GW of connected power by the end of 2026, with data center campuses in Missouri, Pennsylvania, Finland and the United Kingdom. That contract sits inside the $37.5 billion of remaining performance obligations that the raise is designed to fund.
CoreWeave (NASDAQ:CRWV) is the closest listed comparison for Nebius, running the same neocloud playbook with heavy capex, hyperscaler-anchored contracts, and its own large convertible-supported balance sheet. IREN Limited (NASDAQ:IREN) rounds out the neocloud trio, and IREN reports fiscal fourth quarter 2026 results after the close on Thursday, August 27, giving the group its next fundamental checkpoint. Both peers face the same capital-intensity math that Nebius does, which is why the group tends to trade in sympathy on financing news.
What to Watch Traders can watch for whether the Nebius stock rebound holds into today’s close and how the new 2030 and 2034 notes trade against the existing convertible stack. Sizing matters here, since the raise concentrates dilution risk even as it clears near-term financing uncertainty.
The IREN earnings report Thursday will give investors the next read on neocloud demand and capex pace across the group. Investors should size their positions to reflect the capital intensity of the model and the customer concentration in Nebius’s book, especially after a session where good news arrived wrapped inside a $5.75 billion debt raise.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Nebius po silných výsledcích společnosti Nvidia v prodlouženém obchodování vzrostl o více než 6 %. Nvidia zároveň uvedla, že tržby za poslední čtvrtletí stouply na 96 miliard USD.
Nebius stock jumped by over 6% in the extended hours as technology companies reacted to the strong Nvidia earnings, which painted a rosy color on the booming AI industry. It rose to $215 after ending the day at $213. Still, the company faces significant competition challenges as more companies move into the industry.
Nebius Group, a company that counts Nvidia as a big investor, rose after the latter delivered a stronger-than-expected earnings report. In a statement, Nvidia said that its revenue jumped to $96 billion last quarter, higher than the expected $92 billion.
Most importantly, the company guided to its FY’28 revenue growth being higher than expected. Its guidance is that its revenue will grow by 70%, much higher than the 40% analysts were expecting. The real figure will be much higher than that because the company assumed no China sales.
Nebius Group will benefit from the ongoing AI boom because it is one of the biggest infrastructure providers in the industry. It counts top companies like Meta Platforms and Nvidia as clients.
Its most recent results showed that revenue went parabolic, a situation that will accelerate in the foreseeable future. Its revenue jumped to $582 million in the second quarter, a 454% annual increase. For the first six months of the year, revenue was up by 529% to $981 million.
In its statement, the company said that demand for its computing power was so high that it could sell out its 2027 capacity today. This bodes well for its growth trajectory, which analysts expect will continue in the foreseeable future.
Indeed, analysts predict that its annual revenue will climb 532% this year to $3.35 billion. They also expect it to grow by over 250% next year to $11 billion. If this growth continues, it means that the company will hit the $50 billion mark in the coming years.
Still, the company’s revenue growth has not boosted the stock performance. That’s because its business is facing substantial challenges, including the rising costs, with Nvidia planning to increase prices by as much as 15% in January. Other products like servers and memory are getting expensive by the day.
This surge will lead to more cash burn. In its last quarter, the company spent $5.7 billion in capex. As a result, there is a risk that it will dilute its shareholders further. It sold 12.7 million shares, generating $2.8 billion in cash. It has 12.3 million more shares available in the current ATM program.
Competition is also rising in the industry. On Wednesday, Anthropic reached a $45 billion deal with Nscale, a top Nebius competitor. Rum Holdings, formerly known as Rumble, has also entered the industry. This is on top of other top companies like Meta Platforms, RIOT Platforms, and MARA Holdings.
These concerns explains why the company has a high short interest of over 21%, with Michael Burry being one of the top short sellers.
NBIS stock chart | Source: TradingView
The daily chart shows that the NBIS stock has pulled back, erasing the gains it made after the last financial results. It has dropped from a high of $276 to the current $213. By doing this, the stock has filled the fair-value gap it formed after its earnings report.
The two lines of the MACD indicator have formed a bearish crossover pattern. On the positive side, it formed an abandoned baby candlestick pattern on August 24. Now, after the strong Nvidia earnings, there is a likelihood that it will retest the resistance at $250 and then resume the downward trend.
Šéf Palo Alto Networks Nikesh Arora řadí Nebius mezi „neoscalery“, které mohou přežít po odeznění nedostatku GPU. Nebius mezitím vykázal tržby z AI cloudu ve výši 575 milionů USD, meziročně o 514 % více.
Palo Alto Networks' CEO is warning that most AI cloud companies will collapse when GPU scarcity ends, but he carves out a narrow exception for a category of survivors he calls neoscalers. Nebius made his list, and the reasons why…
The AI infrastructure boom is creating a peculiar investing landscape. Demand for computing power is running ahead of available supply, allowing companies that own GPUs and data-center capacity to command premium prices. Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA | NVDA Price Prediction) said its neocloud partners are expected to reach 8 gigawatts of installed capacity by the end of 2026, up from 3 gigawatts at the end of 2025.
Yet Palo Alto Networks (NASDAQ:PANW) CEO Nikesh Arora sees a reckoning coming when supply catches up. His warning is stark: “In two years from now you will be able to buy a neocloud for less than they raise at today.”
But Arora doesn’t put every AI cloud company in the same bucket. He specifically sees Nebius Group (NASDAQ:NBIS) becoming a “neoscaler,” along with CoreWeave (NASDAQ:CRWV). That distinction matters for investors deciding whether Nebius is an AI infrastructure bubble candidate or a potential long-term winner.
What Is a Neoscaler? A neocloud primarily rents scarce GPU capacity. That can be a lucrative business while GPUs, power, and data-center space are constrained. But it also leaves the company vulnerable when competitors add capacity.
Arora’s “neoscaler” concept describes something more durable: an AI cloud provider that reaches sufficient scale, locks in major customers, secures power and infrastructure, and adds software capabilities on top of expensive hardware.
Nebius is building toward that model. Its second-quarter shareholder letter showed AI cloud revenue of $575 million, up 514% year over year, while annualized recurring revenue reached $3 billion. More important, its AI cloud business generated a 50% adjusted EBITDA margin in the quarter.
That software layer is important because GPUs depreciate and become obsolete. If all a company does is rent chips, falling rental prices can quickly squeeze returns. Nebius is trying to make its platform more than a warehouse full of GPUs.
A brutal reckoning is coming for AI infrastructure. See why industry titans are betting $40B on the 'neoscaler' distinction to survive the bubble. Why Nebius Looks Different The strongest evidence supporting Arora’s view is Nebius’ contracted demand. The company has signed multibillion-dollar agreements with Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) and Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META), including a roughly $2.9 billion, five-year Meta agreement. Nebius said in July that it had more than $40 billion of additional contracted revenue from investment-grade customers such as Microsoft and Meta.
It is also securing power and expanding its infrastructure footprint. Nebius raised its contracted power guidance to more than 5 gigawatts and said four large second-quarter deals averaged more than $1 billion each. About 50% to 60% of capital expenditures for some deals can be financed through customer prepayments.
That changes the capital equation. Nebius isn’t simply building speculative capacity and hoping customers arrive.
The Risk Is Still Real Granted, Arora’s warning shouldn’t be dismissed. Neoclouds remain capital-intensive businesses, and he argues their economics depend on capex and internal rates of return. When supply and demand balance, he says, equity valuations will normalize — and funding capex through equity works only while markets remain euphoric.
Nebius just closed a $5.75 billion convertible-note offering, including $3.45 billion of notes due in 2030 and $2.3 billion due in 2034. The proceeds will finance data-center expansion, GPUs, and its AI cloud platform. That is a lot of capital to put to work.
But it is also why the distinction between a generic neocloud and a neoscaler matters. Nebius has contracts, power, scale, and an increasingly broad software stack. The company says its platform serves the full AI workload lifecycle, while acquisitions such as Eigen AI and Clarifai are intended to strengthen inference and AI engineering capabilities.
Key Takeaway In short, Arora’s comments aren’t a blanket endorsement of Nebius. They’re almost the opposite: a warning that investors shouldn’t confuse today’s GPU scarcity with a permanent competitive advantage.
Nebius, however, has several characteristics that could allow it to survive the normalization Arora expects. Its $3 billion AI-cloud ARR, 50% adjusted EBITDA margin, multibillion-dollar customer contracts, and more than $40 billion of additional contracted revenue give it a foundation most speculative neoclouds lack.
That makes Nebius worth considering for aggressive investors. But after a massive infrastructure buildout and $5.75 billion financing, the stock still demands discipline. The neoscaler thesis is compelling — investors just shouldn’t pay any price for it.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Nebius ve 2. čtvrtletí zvýšil tržby o 454 % na 582 milionů USD a upravená EBITDA dosáhla 236 milionů USD. Firma zároveň podepsala čtyři AI cloudové smlouvy, každou za více než 1 miliardu USD.
Nebius Group's (NBIS -4.26%) stock has surged after the artificial intelligence infrastructure company delivered a blockbuster second quarter.
Revenue jumped 454% year over year to $582 million,while adjusted EBITDA reached $236 million. The company also signed four AI cloud contracts worth more than $1 billion each.
The business is clearly moving fast. But so is the stock.
With shares trading at more than 200% return in just one year and the company valued at roughly $60 billion (as of writing), investors are asking an important question: Has Nebius already gone too far, or could the stock still have room to run?
Image source: Getty Images.
The AI opportunity is enormous Nebius doesn't build AI models like ChatGPT. Instead, it provides the computing infrastructure needed to build and run them. Think of Nebius as a company that rents out extremely powerful computers to businesses developing artificial intelligence.
Those computers require expensive Nvidia GPUs, data centers, electricity, cooling systems, and high-speed networks.
And demand is exploding. Nebius' AI cloud business generated about $575 million of revenue in the second quarter, more than five times the amount generated a year earlier. Management also expects full-year 2026 revenue of $3 billion to $3.4 billion and year-end annual recurring revenue of $7 billion to $9 billion.
The customer demand is equally impressive. Nebius now has more than $40 billion of customer commitments, while management expects more than $9 billion of customer prepayments during 2026. It also said it could sell all of its planned 2027 capacity at current terms.
In simple terms, companies are lining up to buy Nebius' computing capacity. That's the core reason investors are so excited.
Today's Change
(
-4.26
%) $
-9.30
Current Price
$
209.18
The economics are getting better, too Growth for the sake of growth is never a good thing. But here's where Nebius's business gets particularly interesting.
But first, some basics. Building AI infrastructure is incredibly expensive. Nebius spent about $5.7 billion on it in the second quarter alone. That raises a critical question: How quickly does Nebius get that money back?
Therein lies the good news. The company said the expected payback period for infrastructure tied to contracts signed in the second quarter had fallen to about one year and 10 months, compared with roughly two to three years historically.
That's a big improvement. Imagine Nebius spends $1 billion building AI infrastructure. If it takes three years to recoup that investment, growth requires substantial capital. But if the investment can be recovered in less than two years, Nebius can potentially put that money back to work much sooner.
In other words, it's improving its capital efficiency, which should lead to shareholder value creation.
But there are still big risks The biggest risk is that AI infrastructure becomes a victim of its own success.
Right now, demand for computing power is extremely strong. But companies across the industry are rushing to build more data centers and buy more GPUs. What happens if they eventually build too much? Prices could fall. Customers could have more bargaining power.
Moreover, Nebius's stock may appear to be quite expensive, even after accounting for all the prospects ahead. For perspective, the company is now worth roughly $60 billion and is expected to generate around $3.4 billion in revenue (at the top end of guidance) for 2026. That's a price-to-sales (PS) ratio of 18 times, which is anything but cheap! On one end, traditional valuation measures don't tell the whole story because Nebius is growing extraordinarily quickly. Investors aren't buying the company for what it earns today. They're paying for what they believe Nebius could become in several years.
If the company continues to win enormous contracts and keeps improving its profitability, today's valuation could eventually look much more reasonable.
But there isn't much room for disappointment. When investors pay a premium price for a rapidly growing company, even a small hiccup can cause the stock to fall sharply. For instance, the stock fell more than 20% just last week as the company announced $5 billion private offering of convertible senior notes, triggering severe investor fears regarding equity dilution and debt accumulation.
So, should investors buy Nebius stock? Overall, I'm bullish on the business, but more cautious about the stock at this price.
Nebius is growing rapidly, customers are committing billions of dollars, and its infrastructure expenses appear to be paying back faster. But the stock has already climbed dramatically, and investors are now expecting a lot. And that brings us to an important idea: A great company isn't always a great stock at any price.
For someone who already owns Nebius, I wouldn't sell simply because the stock has delivered good returns. The company's fundamentals are moving in the right direction.
For investors who don't own it, however, I wouldn't rush to invest a large amount in the stock at once. A smaller initial position, followed by additional purchases if the valuation becomes more attractive or the company continues exceeding expectations, could offer a better balance between opportunity and risk.
Akcie Nebius Group v pondělí klesají téměř o 4 % po zvýšení objemu emise konvertibilních dluhopisů na 5 miliard USD na financování expanze AI infrastruktury.
Nebius Group (NASDAQ:NBIS) shares are trading lower by almost 4% on Monday as investors digest an upsized convertible financing tied to its AI infrastructure buildout, while the Technology sector is down 2.3% and the S&P 500 is off 0.4%.
• Nebius Group stock is among today’s weakest performers. What’s weighing on NBIS shares?
NBIS Stock Drops After Upsized $5B Convertible Notes OfferingNebius increased the size of its convertible notes offering to $5 billion, with proceeds aimed at funding AI infrastructure expansion.
The move can pressure the stock short-term as traders weigh dilution/convert dynamics and the added supply of paper against longer-term capacity growth.
With markets open, the tape is also risk-off in growth: the Nasdaq is down 1.39% even as market breadth is positive (seven sectors advancing, four declining), and Technology is currently the worst-performing sector at -2.3%. That backdrop helps explain why NBIS is sliding harder than the broader market on a day when defensives such as Consumer Staples are leading.
Read Next
NBIS Technical Outlook: Uptrend Intact, Near-Term WeaknessFrom a longer-term trend view, Nebius is still in an uptrend — up 189.67% over the past 12 months and trading 35.5% above its 200-day SMA ($149.71) — but the near-term structure has weakened. The stock is trading 5.3% below its 20-day SMA ($214.22) and 8.9% below its 50-day SMA ($222.71), which often acts as overhead "supply" during pullbacks.
Momentum looks more like consolidation than capitulation, with RSI at 46.14 (neutral), suggesting the selloff isn’t deeply stretched yet and could still chop before a cleaner trend resumes. A key nuance is the 20-day SMA sitting below the 50-day SMA (bearish near-term), even while the 50-day remains above the 200-day (bullish longer-term), a mix that often produces volatile ranges rather than straight-line moves.
Key Resistance: $230 — Round-number ceiling near the area above the 50-day SMA where rebounds can stall. Key Support: $164.50 — Prior buyer-defense zone that sits well above the 200-day SMA but below current price, making it a key "line in the sand" if weakness persists NBIS Underperforms Technology Sector During Broader Tech Sell-offNebius is underperforming its Technology sector on Monday, down 4.57% versus the State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (NYSE:XLK), which is down 1.33%. That relative weakness matters because Technology is currently the worst-performing sector, so Nebius is lagging even within a group that’s already being sold.
Zooming out, the sector has gained 2.81% over the past 30 days but is down 3.21% over the past 90 days, which fits a "bounce inside a choppier medium-term tape" setup. In that context, Nebius’ drop looks like a higher-beta reaction to financing headlines layered on top of a broader tech pullback.
NBIS Earnings Preview, Analyst Price TargetsLooking further out, the next major catalyst for the stock arrives with the Nov. 10 (estimated) earnings report.
EPS Estimate: $-1.36 (Down from a loss of 40 cents year-over-year) Revenue Estimate: $903.49 million (Up from $146.10 million YoY) Analyst Consensus & Recent Actions: The stock carries a Buy rating with a consensus price forecast of $227. Recent analyst moves include:
DA Davidson: Neutral (Raises Target to $250 on Aug. 18) Citigroup: Buy (Raises Target to $324 on Aug. 14) DA Davidson: Neutral (Maintains Target to $175 on Aug. 13) How NBIS Ranks On Momentum, ValuationBelow is the Benzinga Edge scorecard for Nebius, highlighting its strengths and weaknesses compared to the broader market:
Momentum: Bullish (Score: 98.19) — Despite today’s drop, the stock’s broader trend and relative performance signals remain strong. Value: Weak (Score: 4.32) — The market is pricing in aggressive growth, leaving less room for error if execution or funding conditions tighten. The Verdict: Nebius’ Benzinga Edge signal reveals a momentum-driven story with a premium valuation profile. For longer-term bulls, the setup often works best when pullbacks hold above major trend levels, but near-term swings can stay sharp around financing and growth-stock sentiment.
NBIS ETF Exposure: Fund with the Biggest Weighting Leverage Shares 2X Long NBIS Daily ETF (NASDAQ:NBIG): 111.60% Weight Significance: Because Nebius carries such a heavy weight in these funds, any significant inflows or outflows for these ETFs will likely trigger automatic buying or selling of the stock.
NBIS Stock Price Update: Shares Slide On MondayNBIS Stock Price Activity: Nebius Group shares were down 4.15% at $210.03 at the time of publication on Monday, according to Benzinga Pro data.
This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
Nebius tento týden spadl o 21,1 % poté, co oznámil, že chce vydat konvertibilní dluhopisy za 5 miliard USD. Trh se obává zadlužení i možné diluce akcionářů.
Nebius Group (NBIS -0.45%) stock plunged 21.1% this week, according to data provided by S&P Global Market Intelligence. That shouldn't bother existing shareholders who have enjoyed the 231% gain in Nebius stock over the past year.
For those who think they missed out on the huge run in Nebius stock, it could be an opportunity, though. Investments in data centers continue to accelerate, and Nebius has customers lined up to use its compute capacity.
Image source: Nebius Group.
Capital spending by the four largest hyperscalers has already reached $300 billion through June this year. That's about 75% of what those same companies spent in all of 2025, according to recent research from The Motley Fool. Some of that money is going to Nebius. The company has generated more than $4.5 billion in net cash from operating activities in the first half of 2026. That compares to over $350 million spent on operations in the year-ago period.
Today's Change
(
-0.45
%) $
-0.98
Current Price
$
219.13
But the company needs to continue adding capacity to satisfy demand. That's why Nebius announced it would raise $5 billion by issuing convertible notes this week. Shares dropped on the news, as it adds debt and could lead to shareholder dilution should those notes be converted to common stock.
In its second-quarter letter to shareholders, Nebius detailed how growing demand is also increasing the value of its compute capacity. Contract value per megawatt of capacity has soared this year.
Returns on its invested capital look to be growing. That makes dips in the stock a good time to buy shares if investors believe the artificial intelligence infrastructure build-out has several years to go. That, and the stock's already lofty valuation, are the risks one has to balance.
Howard Smith has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Wolfe Research čeká, že Nebius Group může do konce roku 2030 dosáhnout více než 41 miliard USD ročních opakujících se tržeb, tedy téměř desetinásobku modelovaných 4,26 miliardy USD za 3. čtvrtletí 2026. Klíčem má být 5 GW smluvního výkonu a růst kapacity od roku 2027.
The AI infrastructure boom is moving into a new phase. Demand for computing power is no longer the only constraint; access to electricity, data-center capacity, and financing are becoming just as important. Customers are committing billions of dollars years ahead of delivery, while scarce power supports pricing. For investors, contracted power is becoming a financial asset as much as an operating metric.
Wolfe Research believes Nebius Group (NASDAQ:NBIS | NBIS Price Prediction) can exit 2030 with more than $41 billion of annual recurring revenue (ARR) — nearly 10 times the $4.26 billion ARR shown for the third quarter of 2026 in its model. The thesis is aggressive, but its building blocks are visible.
Power Is Becoming Revenue Nebius just raised its year-end 2026 contracted-power target to 5 gigawatts, up from more than 4 GW. Management said it plans to deploy more than 1 GW annually beginning in 2027, and Reuters reported that the company believes it can sell its 2027 capacity at current terms.
The Wolfe model translates that power ramp into ARR growth: $6.3 billion in fiscal 2026, $13.9 billion in 2027, $22.8 billion in 2028, $31.8 billion in 2029, and $41.2 billion in 2030. That assumes Nebius can repeatedly convert electricity into revenue-producing capacity.
Forget the chips—the real AI war is being fought over electricity. With billions in upfront payments from tech titans, the race to turn raw power into revenue has officially reached a fever pitch. Customers Are Helping Fund the Buildout Nebius’ Q2 2026 shareholder letter said annual contract value per megawatt had climbed above $20 million for Q2 deals and above $40 million for short-term Q3 capacity deals. Four deals averaged more than $1 billion each, while 50% to 60% of their capex was self-financed through customer prepayments.
Nebius’ 2025 annual report provides an example. Microsoft‘s (NASDAQ:MSFT) agreement can generate as much as $17.4 billion through 2031 and includes roughly $7 billion of upfront payments. Meta Platforms‘ (NASDAQ:META) March agreement carried a potential contract value of about $27 billion.
That reduces Nebius’ financing burden while long-duration contracts provide revenue visibility.
The Margin Test Still Matters Admittedly, contracted power is not completed infrastructure. Nebius spent about $5.7 billion on capital expenditures in Q2 alone, according to its shareholder letter, while 2026 revenue guidance remains $3 billion to $3.4 billion.
The company also faces competition from Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA)-powered cloud providers such as CoreWeave (NASDAQ:CRWV). Nebius must turn scarce power into energized capacity quickly enough to preserve returns.
Surprisingly, its Q2 AI cloud adjusted EBITDA margin reached 50%. That gives the model some credibility, but sustaining those economics while adding more than 1 GW annually will be the key test.
Key Takeaway In short, Wolfe’s $41 billion ARR forecast is a high bar, but the math has a foundation. Nebius must convert 5 GW of contracted power into capacity, maintain pricing above $20 million per MW, and keep using customer prepayments to fund growth.
For investors, Nebius is a high-risk, high-upside AI infrastructure bet. The 10x ARR opportunity is worth watching, but the real signal will be whether margins hold as the gigawatts come online.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Nebius Group vzrostla od začátku roku o více než 220 % a za posledních několik týdnů přidala přes 40 %. Ve 2. čtvrtletí jí výnosy meziročně stouply o 454 %.
Nebius Group (NBIS -1.69%) has been an incredible stock to own in 2026. It has risen by more than 220% year to date, and has recovered nearly all of the losses it sustained during July's tech-sector sell-off. Its rise recently has been swift, including a jump of more than 40% in the past few weeks.
The catalyst for that growth? Its second-quarter report. Nebius knocked it out of the park with its results, and management assured investors that its impressive growth rate will likely continue into the near future. And despite its recent rally, there's still plenty of room for the stock to run.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
Nebius's growth rate is among the fastest in the market Nebius operates a neocloud business, which means that it's focused on providing AI-first cloud computing services. The hyperscalers that lead the cloud infrastructure sector have booked a significant backlog of business, and they're trying to get their hands on as much computing power as possible to meet those obligations and turn backlogs into revenues. Some of Nebius's biggest clients are companies that are spending big to build computing infrastructure themselves.
Nebius is rapidly expanding its data center footprint, and has brought several new facilities online throughout 2026. This has led to tremendous growth. In Q2, its revenue rose by 454% year over year, and the rapid growth is not expected to dissipate anytime soon.
Today's Change
(
-1.69
%) $
-3.79
Current Price
$
220.11
Wall Street expects 446% growth in the third quarter and 526% in the fourth. In 2027, analysts expect 250% growth. By the end of next year, the business will have transformed massively from where it was at the end of 2025.
With big revenue growth still to come, I'm confident that Nebius's stock can continue to do well in the future. It will be hard for most rivals to replicate this kind of growth.
The only red flag I see is Nebius' spending. It's pouring every penny it can get its hands on into its capital expense budget, and it isn't producing any profits. This shouldn't come as a surprise to investors, as Nebius wants to capture market share while it can, but it will eventually have to flip its focus from top-line growth to turning a profit. That won't be easy, and could lead to some headaches for investors when it occurs. But given that the AI build-out doesn't look like it will slow down anytime soon, it may be years before investors start wanting Nebius to shift gears and prove that it can operate its data centers profitably.
There is plenty more upside ahead for Nebius, but investors should still keep an eye on its profitability and where it's trending as the AI build-out phase matures.
Nebius uvedl, že odhadovaná doba návratnosti smluv uzavřených ve 2. čtvrtletí klesla na asi 1 rok a 10 měsíců z historických dvou až tří let. To naznačuje výrazně lepší ekonomiku jeho AI infrastruktury.
For months, investors have focused on one question about Nebius Group (NBIS -7.60%): Can the company turn the artificial intelligence boom into attractive economics? Nebius' latest quarter provided an encouraging answer.
The number that caught my attention wasn't its 454% year-over-year revenue growth. It wasn't even the more than $40 billion of customer commitments. It was the payback period.
Nebius said the estimated payback period for contracts signed in the second quarter fell to about 1 year and 10 months, compared with a historical range of roughly two to three years. That improvement could be more important to long-term investors than another quarter of triple-digit growth.
Image source: Getty Images.
Why payback matters Nebius is building one of the most capital-intensive technology businesses.
The company spent approximately $5.7 billion on capital expenditures in Q2, primarily to expand its graphics processing unit (GPU) and data center infrastructure. It has also raised its contracted-power target for 2026 from 4 to 5 gigawatts as it races to meet demand.For perspective, a 1-gigawatt AI data center requires around $40 billion to $50 billion in capital investment in servers, facilities, network infrastructure, and energy.
That's an enormous amount of capital, and it raises the question investors care most about: How quickly does Nebius get that money back?
Imagine spending $1 billion on GPUs and related infrastructure. Revenue tells you how much business the infrastructure generates. Payback tells you how quickly the investment's cash flows can recover the capital deployed.
The shorter the payback period, the faster Nebius can potentially recycle its capital into the next wave of infrastructure. In the case of Nebius, its latest contracts allow it to regain its investments in less than two years.
For a company spending billions of dollars to expand capacity, the speed of that cycle matters enormously.
Today's Change
(
-7.60
%) $
-20.42
Current Price
$
248.43
The economics appear to be improving The payback improvement becomes even more interesting when combined with the terms of Nebius' latest contracts.
The company signed four major AI cloud contracts in Q2, each averaging more than $1 billion in total contract value. The contracts also carried annual contract values above $20 million per megawatt, compared with roughly $12 million across Nebius' existing 2026 capacity.
That's a notable improvement. Nebius isn't merely adding more customers. It appears to be securing infrastructure capacity at increasingly attractive economics.
Moreover, customers are helping fund the expansion. Around 70% of Q2 deals included customer prepayments, while Nebius expects more than $9 billion of customer prepayments during 2026.
Put those pieces together: Higher contract values. Shorter payback periods. Customer-funded capex. That is a very different story from simply saying, "AI demand is strong."
This could weaken the biggest bear argument Nebius' biggest risk has never really been whether customers want AI infrastructure. The latest contracts suggest they clearly do.
The bigger question has always been whether Nebius can generate attractive returns after spending billions of dollars to build the infrastructure those customers require. That's why the payback period matters.
A company can grow revenue by hundreds of percent and still destroy shareholder value if every dollar of additional revenue requires even more capital. But if Nebius can consistently recover its infrastructure investments in roughly two years, the economics of aggressive expansion look very different.
That is particularly important because Nebius' AI cloud business is already showing significant operating leverage. In Q2, the company reported approximately $575 million of AI cloud revenue, while adjusted EBITDA reached about $236 million at the group level.
The combination of strong demand, improving contract economics, and expanding margins suggests Nebius may be moving toward a much more attractive business model as it scales.
Investors shouldn't declare victory yet There is an important caveat. The one-year-and-10-month figure is an estimated payback period for the Q2 contracts. It isn't guaranteed that every future deployment will yield the same economics.
Payback can change with GPU prices, utilization, power costs, customer demand, hardware depreciation, and competition. Nebius also remains extraordinarily capital-intensive. The company is spending billions today based on the expectation that AI computing demand will remain strong for years.
If AI demand continues to exceed available capacity, that investment could prove highly lucrative. But if the industry eventually overbuilds, utilization and pricing could fall, extending payback periods and reducing returns on capital.
That's the risk investors cannot ignore, and should be watchful of.
What does it mean for investors? Growth investors usually focus on growth, but I think Nebius investors should start paying closer attention to unit economics rather than just headline growth.
That's why payback is a crucial metric to track, since it tells us how economically attractive that growth may be.
If Nebius can repeatedly deploy billions of dollars into AI infrastructure and recover that capital in roughly two years, it could create enormous long-term shareholder value as it scales. That could fundamentally change the way investors think about the company, and, ultimately, its long-term value creation.
Nebius plánuje získat 4,5 miliardy USD prostřednictvím emise konvertibilních dluhopisů na rozšíření datových center, výpočetní kapacity a AI cloudové platformy. Akcie v premarketu klesly o více než 7 %.
Branding for Nebius at the Nebius AI UK data centre at Ark Data Centres, in Chertsey, Britain, November 6, 2025. REUTERS/Toby Melville/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab
Aug 19 (Reuters) - AI cloud provider Nebius Group (NBIS.O), opens new tab said on Wednesday it plans to raise $4.5 billion through an offering of private convertible notes, as it seeks to ramp up investments in data centers and computing capacity.
The Amsterdam-headquartered company plans to issue notes worth $2.75 billion maturing in 2030, and notes worth $1.75 billion maturing in 2034. It may also sell an additional $375 million of the 2030 notes and $300 million of the 2034 notes if purchasers exercise their options, it said.
Sign up here.
Proceeds from the offering will be used to expand data center capacity, invest in the company's full-stack AI cloud platform and acquire GPUs and other key components needed to support growth.
Nebius shares were down more than 7% in premarket trading.
Alongside the debt offering, the company expects to enter privately negotiated agreements with certain holders of its existing convertible notes due 2029 and 2031 to exchange part of the notes for Class A shares.
The completion of the offering remains subject to market conditions, the company said.
Nebius ended June with $8.04 billion in cash and cash equivalents, but spent $5.66 billion on property, equipment and intangible assets in the second quarter, reflecting heavy investment in data centers and computing capacity.
Reporting by Rashika Singh in Bengaluru; Editing by Jonathan Ananda
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles., opens new tab
Nebius ve 2. čtvrtletí zvýšil tržby na 582 milionů USD, meziročně o 454 %, a upravená marže EBITDA stoupla na 41 %. Firma čeká další růst marží díky vlastním datovým centrům a asset-light modelu.
Key Takeaways Nebius Group posted $582 million in Q2 revenue, up 454%, with a 41% adjusted EBITDA margin.The asset-light model could expand capacity with minimal balance sheet capital and support higher margins. Nebius expects its own data centers and high-value services to drive further margin expansion beyond 2026. Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS - Free Report) is entering 2027 with a business model designed to scale capacity while increasing profitability. In the second quarter of 2026, the company generated Group revenue of $582 million, up 454% year over year, while annualized run-rate revenue reached $3 billion. Group adjusted EBITDA was $236 million, resulting in an adjusted EBITDA margin of 41%, compared with 32% in the first quarter. The Nebius AI business generated a 50% adjusted EBITDA margin. On the last earnings call, management highlighted that the increase in profitability was supported by higher revenue, the early contribution of the asset-light model, Token Factory and recent acquisitions.
The asset-light model could provide an additional path for Nebius to expand capacity without requiring significant balance sheet capital. Under this model, partners finance, build and operate facilities, while Nebius provides its full-stack platform, demand and value-added services on top of the partners’ infrastructure. On the last earnings call, management noted that this approach delivers high-margin revenue while requiring minimum balance sheet capital and has the potential to unlock additional capacity in 2027 and beyond. The company also stated that it had received dozens of inquiries from potential partners with significant capacity and capital but without the technology or market access needed to monetize it.
Management expects margin expansion to continue beyond 2026. The company has visibility into pricing and expects capacity coming online from its own data centers to begin improving margins in the second half of 2027. In addition, Nebius expects the asset-light model, along with high-value services such as agentic and inference solutions, to contribute an increasing share of revenue while supporting even higher margins.
For 2026, Nebius reaffirmed annualized run-rate revenue guidance of $7 billion to $9 billion, Group revenue of $3 billion to $3.4 billion, Group adjusted EBITDA margin of approximately 40% and capital expenditures of $20 billion to $25 billion. The company expects to deploy significantly more capacity in 2027, while 2027 formal guidance will be provided later this year.
Taking a Look at NBIS’ CompetitorsCoreWeave’s (CRWV - Free Report) margins expanded in the second quarter as scale increasingly translated into operating leverage. Adjusted EBITDA was $1.5 billion, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 59%, while adjusted operating income increased to $128 million from $21 million in the prior quarter, resulting in a 5% adjusted operating margin despite significant ramp costs. Management highlighted that new contracts signed in the second quarter carried contribution margins 5-10 percentage points above those added in recent quarters. Margin-accretive businesses, including storage, CPU, networking and software, exceeded $400 million in ARR. The company expects margins to continue expanding sequentially in the third and fourth quarters, with adjusted operating margins reaching the low teens in the fourth quarter.
Microsoft (MSFT - Free Report) capitalizes on AI business momentum and Copilot adoption alongside accelerating Azure cloud infrastructure expansion. Strong Microsoft 365 Commercial cloud demand has been propelling Productivity and Business Processes revenue growth. ARPU is increasing through E5 and M365 Copilot uptake across key segments. Strategic execution through expanding scale and enterprise customer growth is driving non-AI services. The company reported fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 revenues of $90 billion, which increased 18% year over year. Gross margin reached $60.5 billion, up about 15% year over year. For the first quarter of fiscal 2027, Microsoft expects total company revenues between $89.85 billion and $90.95 billion, suggesting growth of roughly 16% to 17%.
NBIS Price Performance, Valuation and EstimatesShares of Nebius gained 52.1% in the past month compared with the Internet – Software and Services industry’s growth of 12.1%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
In terms of price/book, NBIS’ shares are trading at 6.79X, below the Internet Software Services industry’s 20.98X.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NBIS’ earnings for 2026 has been revised downward over the past 60 days.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
NBIS currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Nebius (NBIS +8.88%) has been steadily raising its capacity guidance for the end of 2026. The company told investors in February that it expected to have 3 gigawatts of contracted power by the end of 2026. That number jumped to 4 gigawatts in May, and when the company released second-quarter results in August, it told investors to expect 5 gigawatts by the end of the year.
This steady growth comes as the company adds new sites throughout North America and Europe. It also suggests that the stock's rally isn't close to over, even though its price has almost tripled year to date.
Image source: Getty Images.
A larger-gigawatt pipeline leads to more revenue Nebius operates in one of the hottest industries right now. It's the largest of the neocloud providers -- a group of companies that's playing a critical role in the artificial intelligence (AI) boom. Tech giants like Meta Platforms (META -0.86%) and Microsoft (MSFT -0.30%) have already turned to Nebius to help them meet their AI capacity needs.
Today's Change
(
8.88
%) $
22.64
Current Price
$
277.68
Meta Platforms has made multiple cloud compute deals this year, in addition to one last year. Its biggest deal came in at $27 billion over the next five years. It's split between a five-year, $12 billion agreement and a second five-year, $15 billion deal. Nebius says it will start to deliver this capacity in early 2027.
It's normal for tech giants to secure hundreds of megawatts in a single deal, and Nebius anticipates having roughly 5 gigawatts of contracted power by the end of 2026. (1 gigawatt equals 1,000 megawatts.) It's entirely possible that Nebius will raise its contracted power capacity guidance again before the end of the year, based on its history.
The ceiling for Nebius' potential revenue will get higher as it secures more megawatts and builds additional data centers. That potential for the business to scale up has been showing up in its recent results. Nebius delivered $582.3 million in Q2 revenue, which was a 454% year-over-year increase. It may continue to deliver similar growth rates for another year as it secures more deals and delivers on existing contracts.
Those same data centers are expensive to build Although the potential for parabolic revenue growth will excite many investors, it costs a lot of money to build AI data centers, obtain energy, and buy hardware such as Nvidia's (NVDA -0.06%) powerful processors. That's part of the reason Nebius issued $4 billion in private convertible notes earlier this year, and some bears point to the company's debt load as a major concern.
Nebius will have to continue borrowing money to build enough data centers to offer 5 gigawatts of AI capacity to hyperscalers. As long as its operating income remains negative, Nebius will have to rely on that type of funding. There is, however, a path out of borrowing money as it realizes revenue from its deals.
The newest Meta Platforms deal alone will provide Nebius with more than $5 billion in annual recurring revenue once it is set up. That's more than the $3 billion in annual recurring revenue that Nebius currently generates. The company expects to have up to $9 billion in annual recurring revenue by the end of the year.
The investment thesis always viewed financing as a way to bridge the gap between Nebius' AI data center ambitions and its net operating losses.
Prepayments make it easier to build the data centers Even though Nebius won't realize recurring revenue from its investments until it delivers AI capacity to its customers, the company has been securing high prepayments. In its Q2 shareholder letter, it revealed that 70% of deals had partial prepayment, with that prepayment often covering 50% to 60% of associated capital expenditures.
Thus, Nebius gets immediate cash infusions from its contracts, and the ability to negotiate more lucrative deals once those contracts expire. A key note in the shareholder letter hinted at Nebius' leverage as demand for AI cloud capacity surges.
"We could sell our entire 2027 capacity on these terms today. We are deliberately not doing so because we see higher value in retaining some capacity for immediate customer needs," the company said in its shareholder letter.
A slowdown in deal-making indicates that Nebius thinks it can secure better terms by waiting a little longer. It also means capital constraints are not an immediate concern as it builds its gigawatt pipeline and approaches revenue recognition on multiple deals.
Nebius Group si pronajme vysokohustotní kapacitu v areálu Vantage CWL1 v Newportu pro AI úlohy. Ve 2. čtvrtletí tržby meziročně vyskočily o 454 % a upravená marže EBITDA dosáhla 41 %.
Key Takeaways Nebius Group will lease high-density capacity at Vantage's CWL1 campus in Newport for AI workloadsNebius Group's Q2 revenue surged 454%, while its adjusted EBITDA margin reached 41%.Nebius Group targets 5 GW of contracted power by year-end and over 1 GW of annual deployment in 2027. The race to build AI infrastructure is rapidly accelerating, and South Wales has been designated a U.K. AI Growth Zone. The recent agreement between Vantage Data Centers and Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS - Free Report) is set to drive this transformation, bringing high-density, NVIDIA (NVDA - Free Report) -powered AI infrastructure to Vantage’s CWL1 campus in Newport.
Per the deal, NBIS plans to lease high-density capacity at Vantage’s CWL1 campus to support a broad range of workloads, including AI training, inference, agentic AI and enterprise applications. The infrastructure will serve a diverse customer base ranging from startups and researchers to large enterprises and public-sector organizations. The move forms part of Nebius’ much larger U.K. expansion strategy. In June, NBIS announced approximately £1.7 billion of committed capacity buildout across four U.K. sites. Newport expands Nebius’ U.K. capacity while diversifying its AI cloud footprint.
The deployment will leverage NVIDIA’s latest full-stack, end-to-end DSX AI factory reference design. NVIDIA’s AI factory approach is designed to optimize these components as an integrated system. For Nebius, deploying NVIDIA-powered infrastructure in a purpose-built, high-density facility can accelerate the deployment of new AI capacity while giving customers access to a familiar, highly optimized technology stack. NBIS’ second-quarter revenue grew 454% year over year, with adjusted EBITDA margin rising to 41%, driven by high-margin capacity sales and early investments.
Nebius aims to reach 5 GW of contracted power by year-end, with plans to deploy more than 1 GW annually in 2027. Construction of data centers is progressing well, with recent innovations such as asset-light partnerships to scale capacity faster. Deals worth more than $20 million per MW with less than two-year payback will start online in late fourth quarter.
Competition Heats Up for NBIS in the AI Cloud RaceMicrosoft's (MSFT - Free Report) AI investments are converting into measurable commercial traction across its stack. Multi-model flexibility, paired with continued access to OpenAI's frontier models under an IP arrangement extending to 2032, allows customers to optimize cost and performance while keeping Microsoft central to their AI infrastructure decisions. With demand still outpacing available capacity, this positioning across AI infrastructure, tooling and applications should continue widening Microsoft's addressable opportunity heading into fiscal 2027. In May, Microsoft signed new agreements with U.S. and U.K. government partners — the Center for AI Standards and Innovation and the AI Security Institute — to advance AI testing and safety evaluation frameworks.
NBIS’ direct competitor, CoreWeave, Inc. (CRWV - Free Report) , is expanding its global infrastructure as demand for AI cloud services continues to strengthen across sectors, geographies and workloads. In June, CRWV announced a new colocation agreement with Conapto, a provider of scalable, secure and sustainable data center solutions. The partnership covers two data center campuses in Stockholm, Sweden, with initial capacity already operational at the Stockholm 4 South facility. Both campuses will be powered by renewable energy, supporting CoreWeave's efforts to expand its AI cloud infrastructure in Europe while maintaining a focus on sustainability. CoreWeave reported record revenue of $2.6 billion, up 112%.
NBIS Price Performance, Valuation and EstimatesShares of Nebius have gained 204.7% year to date compared with the Internet – Software and Services industry’s growth of 21%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
In terms of price/book, NBIS’ shares are trading at 8.91X, higher than the Internet Software Services industry’s 4.2X.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NBIS’ earnings for 2026 has been revised downward over the past 60 days.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
NBIS currently carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Nebius uvedl, že první aukce kapacity pro AI dosáhla ceny o 15 % vyšší než dosavadní maximum. Firma to bere jako signál silné poptávky po GPU Blackwell.
• Nebius Group stock is showing weakness. Why is NBIS stock retreating?
While one auction does not establish a long-term pricing trend, the results suggest premium AI computing capacity remains scarce enough for customers to accept substantially higher prices.
AI Compute Pricing Surpasses Nebius’ Previous HighUnlike traditional cloud services, where providers publish fixed prices, Nebius experimented with letting customers compete for a limited pool of AI computing capacity.
Founder and CEO Arkady Volozh said the company’s first attempt exceeded expectations.
“This quarter we launched our first capacity auction. It was very successful and cleared at the highest price we have seen for the Blackwell generation of chips, 15% above the highest price we ever charged before.”
The significance extends beyond the 15% figure itself. Rather than simply announcing a price increase, the auction allowed Nebius to measure customers’ willingness to pay for one of the industry’s most sought-after AI resources — access to Nvidia’s latest Blackwell GPUs.
The outcome suggests demand remains sufficiently strong for customers to pay materially more than Nebius had previously charged.
Nebius Sees the Auction as a Pricing SignalManagement indicated the auction was not merely a one-off sales exercise, but a way to better understand the market.
As Volozh explained, “This gives us a strong signal on the value of this capacity in the market in real time.”
That distinction is important. The auction does not mean all of Nebius’ contracts will immediately be repriced, nor does it guarantee higher profit margins. It does, however, provide evidence that customers are willing to pay more for scarce AI computing capacity than the company’s previous pricing suggested.
For investors, that could prove meaningful. If Nebius incorporates those market signals into future contracts as additional capacity comes online, higher realized prices could support stronger revenue generation from the same underlying infrastructure.
Pricing Power Could Shape the Next Phase of AI InfrastructureThe AI infrastructure race has so far been dominated by discussions around GPUs, data centers and capital expenditure. Nebius’ earnings suggest pricing may become an equally important differentiator.
Companies that can consistently demonstrate pricing power stand to generate more revenue from each unit of computing capacity without necessarily expanding infrastructure at the same pace. While it remains too early to conclude that Nebius has established a lasting pricing advantage, its first capacity auction indicates customers continue to place a premium on access to cutting-edge AI hardware.
If that dynamic persists, investors may begin evaluating AI infrastructure providers not only on how much capacity they build, but also on how effectively they monetize it.
Image via Shutterstock
This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
Market News and Data brought to you by Benzinga APIs
