Micron Technology (NASDAQ: MU) has suffered a sharp correction over the past month, with shares falling about 25%.
Notably, MU shares have declined from a record high near $1,255 in late June 2026 to about $920 at press time.
MU one-month stock price chart. Source: Google Finance The drop comes despite the company reporting record revenue, earnings, and margins, highlighting growing investor concerns about the sustainability of the AI-driven memory boom.
The decline has surprised many investors given Micron’s strong financial performance. However, the sell-off reflects concerns over future memory chip supply growth, valuation risks, profit-taking after an extraordinary rally, and broader weakness across the semiconductor sector.
The downturn began shortly after Micron reported exceptional fiscal third-quarter 2026 results.
The company posted record quarterly revenue of $41.46 billion, up 346% year-over-year, while adjusted earnings per share reached $25.11, well above Wall Street estimates. Gross margins climbed to roughly 85%, and management projected fiscal fourth-quarter revenue of about $50 billion.
Why Micron stock has plunged Despite the strong results, Micron faced heavy profit-taking after a rally that saw the stock gain more than 700% over the past year on booming AI memory demand. Following the earnings-driven surge, many investors opted to lock in gains, accelerating the sell-off.
Another key concern is the cyclical nature of the memory industry. In this line, Micron has benefited from shortages of HBM, DRAM, and NAND chips used in AI infrastructure, pushing prices and margins to record levels.
However, investors fear the industry may be nearing a cycle peak. Historically, strong profitability attracts new capacity, eventually leading to oversupply, lower prices, and weaker margins.
As a result, the market is questioning whether Micron’s current earnings strength can be sustained over the long term.
Meanwhile, concerns about future supply have intensified as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix ramp up investments to expand memory production capacity.
Their aggressive spending plans have fueled expectations that current shortages could ease in the coming years. Meanwhile, Chinese memory maker CXMT is emerging as a competitive threat, with reports suggesting some customers are exploring alternative suppliers, raising concerns about Micron’s future pricing power.
The sell-off has also coincided with broader weakness across semiconductor and AI-related stocks. Investors are increasingly scrutinizing AI infrastructure spending and questioning whether hyperscalers can generate sufficient returns from massive data center investments.
Concerns about slower AI spending growth and the development of custom chips by major technology companies have further weighed on sentiment toward AI hardware stocks.
Despite the correction, investors remain wary of assigning premium valuations to earnings they view as cyclical.
After a rally of more than 700% over the past year, even modest concerns about future profitability triggered a sharp reassessment of the stock.
Micron stock outlook On the other hand, Micron’s near-term outlook remains strong. The company has secured long-term supply agreements backed by billions of dollars in customer commitments while continuing to invest in advanced memory technologies and new U.S. fabrication facilities.
Management expects memory market conditions to remain tight through at least 2027, with only gradual supply improvements thereafter.
The AI boom has transformed semiconductors from a cyclical business into one of the world’s most strategically important industries. Memory chips, once viewed as commodity components, have become a bottleneck for everything from smartphones to AI servers. That has given suppliers unusual pricing power while forcing customers to rethink their supply chains.
Nowhere is that tension more visible than in Apple‘s (NASDAQ:AAPL | AAPL Price Prediction) reported push to buy lower-cost memory from China’s ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT), even though the company has been blacklisted by the U.S. government because of its ties to the Chinese military and state. The dispute says as much about the future of the memory industry as it does about Apple.
Apple Wants Cheaper Memory, but the Politics Are Expensive According to multiple media reports, Apple is lobbying the Trump administration for permission to source memory from CXMT. Buying chips from the company is reportedly not outright illegal, but doing so without government approval could expose Apple to political criticism and reputational damage because of CXMT’s placement on U.S. restricted-entity lists.
Apple’s reported argument is straightforward. It claims Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU) is taking advantage of today’s tight memory market by charging excessive prices. That criticism comes after Micron’s gross margins climbed above 80% as AI demand continues to outpace supply.
Ironically, Apple has long been known for charging premium prices itself. Just weeks ago, CEO Tim Cook announced price increases of roughly 20% across several MacBook and iPad models, saying Apple could no longer absorb higher component costs. Cook even described today’s memory shortage as a “100-year flood” event.
That makes Apple’s accusations of price gouging harder to separate from its own efforts to protect product margins.
The company’s argument is that large device makers, including Apple, spent years squeezing suppliers for lower prices. Those aggressive negotiations hurt profitability across the memory industry and discouraged investment in new manufacturing capacity. When generative AI suddenly sent demand soaring, the industry did not have enough supply.
Micron argues that today’s higher prices reflect genuine scarcity and tens of billions of dollars being invested in new fabrication plants, including major U.S. manufacturing projects supported by the CHIPS Act.
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Company AI Memory Products Highest-Margin Business Micron HBM, DDR5, LPDDR5X High-bandwidth memory (HBM) CXMT DDR5, LPDDR5X, LPDDR4X, RDIMM, MRDIMM Conventional DRAM That distinction matters. CXMT manufactures mainstream DRAM used in PCs, smartphones, and enterprise servers. It does not produce high-bandwidth memory (HBM), the advanced chips powering Nvidia‘s (NASDAQ:NVDA) AI accelerators.
Because HBM commands much higher prices and margins than commodity DRAM, it remains the engine behind Micron’s earnings growth.
The Bigger Story Isn’t Apple Surprisingly, this dispute has less to do with Apple than with how valuable advanced memory has become.
Apple wants lower-cost conventional DRAM to protect margins on consumer devices. Micron wants pricing that supports years of capital spending needed to expand production. Meanwhile, the fastest-growing part of the industry — HBM — faces little competitive pressure because only a handful of companies can manufacture it at scale.
That leaves Micron in an enviable position. Even if Apple eventually receives approval to buy some lower-cost conventional memory from CXMT, it would do little to weaken Micron’s leadership in AI memory, where demand continues to outstrip supply.
Key Takeaway In short, Apple’s reported campaign highlights the growing tension between technology companies trying to control costs and semiconductor manufacturers finally earning healthy returns after years of razor-thin profitability. Granted, Apple has every incentive to lower its bill of materials. But accusing suppliers of gouging rings hollow when Apple has long charged premium prices for its products and raised its own prices by roughly 20% while defending those increases as necessary.
For investors, the bigger investment thesis hasn’t changed. Conventional DRAM pricing may fluctuate as new suppliers emerge, but HBM remains the profit center that matters most. As long as AI infrastructure spending continues at today’s pace, Micron’s competitive advantage rests far less on commodity memory pricing than on its ability to supply the premium chips powering the AI revolution. Ultimately, that’s the market smart investors should be watching.
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Micron Technology (MU -7.24%) stock has been on a wild ride between June 22 and July 22, trading as low as $804 and as high as $1,255. Given the volatile price swings over that time, when Micron's stock price falls below $1,000, investors may be wondering whether it's a "buy-the-dip" moment or if it's better to stay on the sidelines.
Based on the median price target from 54 analysts tracked by CNN, here's what the math suggests about whether buying Micron below $1,000 has a favorable risk-to-reward setup.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
Where Micron stock could be in the next 12 months According to 54 analysts, the median price target for Micron over the next year is $1,600. We can work out what a return would look like if Micron were to reach that price target based on two recent closing prices.
On July 20, Micron closed at $865.46 per share, so if the stock were to reach $1,600, that would have been a gain of 84.8%. From its closing price of $959.48 on July 22, reaching that $1,600 target would be a gain of 66.7%.
To offer an even wider lens on the risk-to-reward setup, the highest price target among the 52 analysts tracked by CNN was $2,200, while the lowest was $361.
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What price targets offer Price targets are estimates, and there are not only internal factors within the company, but also external factors that analysts can't envision that could affect those estimates over the next 12 months. That's why price targets aren't guaranteed to come true, and they shouldn't be used as the main reason for buying a stock.
That said, it does help gauge the upside potential of a stock and what might happen under the worst-case scenario. Based on the hypotheticals shared earlier, in which Micron could trade up to around 85% higher over the next 12 months, investors who can handle the risk and price swings may benefit from investing when Micron falls below $1,000.
Expectations matter A stock returning another 60% to 85% over the next year is exceptional. And as memory and storage chip shortages are expected to continue for the foreseeable future, Micron is poised to continue benefiting and could offer those kinds of returns. But those potential gains may still manage to disappoint some investors.
As of this writing, the stock has climbed more than 780% over the past 12 months. In comparison, a gain in a range between 60% and 85% may sound like a letdown to anyone just investing in Micron now.
There's also the fact that there's no guarantee the stock price will climb that high or provide a gain at all. That makes Micron a more attractive investment for those who are still comfortable if it doesn't reach a specific price target over the next year and view it more as a long-term investment.
Memory and storage demand from artificial intelligence (AI) is expected to keep growing, so as long as Micron keeps meeting that demand from AI and keeps its margins high, the stock price can continue climbing.
Bloomberg's Stacey Vanek Smith, David Gura and Nikki Waller join Scarlet Fu and Tom Keene on "Bloomberg Money." They discuss this week's spike in oil prices, global inflation worries, the jump in retirement health costs and millionaires tied to Micron.
It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Micron (MU - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 18.4% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.
But investors have to be wondering, will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Micron due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the latest earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.
Micron Q3 Earnings Beat Estimates, Revenues Rise on AI Memory StrengthMicron reported third-quarter fiscal 2026 non-GAAP earnings of $25.11 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 17.39%. The company reported earnings of $1.91 per share in the year-ago quarter.
Revenues soared 345.7% year over year to $41.46 billion and surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 12.91%. Revenues jumped 73.7% sequentially. The upside was driven by robust AI-led memory demand, with data center revenues exceeding $25 billion, an annualized run rate of more than $100 billion.
Micron announced 16 strategic customer agreements (SCAs) across data center, consumer and auto markets in the reported quarter. These agreements represent roughly 20% of DRAM volume and one-third of NAND volume over the covered period.
The company expects approximately half or more of its revenues to eventually be under SCAs. Under the agreements signed so far, Micron projects $22 billion in cash deposits and related financial commitments, supporting longer-term supply visibility and financial predictability.
MU’s Q3 Top-Line DetailsMicron’s top-line growth benefited from tight DRAM and NAND supply, stronger pricing and accelerating demand tied to AI infrastructure. MU noted that industry demand for both DRAM and NAND continues to significantly exceed supply.
DRAM revenues were $31.3 billion, accounting for 76% of total revenues in the fiscal third quarter. DRAM revenues increased 67% sequentially, helped by low-single-digit bit shipment growth and a low-60s percentage increase in average selling price (ASP).
NAND revenues were $9.9 billion, representing 24% of total revenues. NAND revenues increased 99% sequentially, driven by a mid-single-digit increase in bit shipments and a mid-80s percentage rise in ASP.
MU’s Business Units Set RecordsCloud Memory Business Unit’s revenues were a record $13.77 billion, up 77.7% sequentially and 306.6% year over year.
Core Data Center Business Unit’s revenues were a record $11.52 billion, up 103% sequentially and 653.2% year over year.
Mobile and Client Business Unit’s revenues were a record $11.52 billion, up 49.4% sequentially and 254% year over year. The sequential revenue growth was driven by higher pricing.
Automotive and Embedded Business Unit’s revenues were a record $4.63 billion, up 71.1% sequentially and 311.2% year over year. The improvement reflected higher pricing and higher bit shipments.
MU’s Q3 Margins ExpandNon-GAAP gross margin was 84.9% in the reported quarter, up from 74.9% in the fiscal second quarter and 39% in the year-ago quarter.
Cloud Memory Business Unit’s gross margin expanded to 83% from 74% reported in the prior quarter, driven by higher pricing. The company reported Cloud Memory’s gross margin of 58% in the year-ago quarter. On a sequential basis, the core Data Center Business Unit’s gross margin improved to 87% from 74%, aided by higher pricing and a favorable mix. The company reported a Data Center gross margin of 38% in the year-ago quarter.
Mobile and Client Business Unit gross margin reached 87% compared with 79% in the prior quarter and 24% in the year-ago quarter. Automotive and Embedded Business Unit gross margin surged to 79% compared with 68% in the prior quarter and 26% in the year-ago quarter.
Non-GAAP operating expenses were $1.52 billion, up 6.8% year over year and 34% sequentially.
In the third quarter of fiscal 2026, non-GAAP operating income came in at $33.68 billion, a significant rise from $2.49 billion reported in the year-ago quarter and $16.46 billion reported in the previous quarter.
Micron’s Balance Sheet Shows Strong Liquidity LevelMU exited the quarter with $30.2 billion in cash, marketable investments and restricted cash. Liquidity was $32.2 billion at the end of the fiscal third quarter.
Micron generated $25.39 billion in operating cash flow in the quarter. Capital expenditures, net of proceeds from government incentives and asset sales, were $7.1 billion, resulting in adjusted free cash flow of $18.3 billion.
The company declared a quarterly dividend of 15 cents per share, payable on July 21, 2026 to shareholders of record as of July 6. Micron did not repurchase shares during the fiscal third quarter.
MU’s Guidance Points to More StrengthFor the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026, Micron expects revenues of $50 billion, plus or minus $1 billion. The company projects a non-GAAP gross margin of approximately 86%.
Non-GAAP operating expenses are expected to be approximately $1.65 billion. Adjusted earnings are projected at $31 per share, plus or minus $1, based on roughly 1.15 billion diluted shares.
Micron now expects supply-demand conditions for both DRAM and NAND to remain tight beyond calendar 2027. In DRAM, the company expects industry DRAM bit shipments in calendar 2026 to grow in the low to mid-20s percentage range, slightly above MU’s prior outlook. In NAND, Micron expects industry NAND bit shipments in calendar 2026 to grow approximately 20%, unchanged from its prior expectations.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?In the past month, investors have witnessed a upward trend in estimates review.
The consensus estimate has shifted 24.94% due to these changes.
VGM ScoresCurrently, Micron has a strong Growth Score of A, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with a C. However, the stock was allocated a score of F on the value side, putting it in the bottom 20% quintile for value investors.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of C. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
OutlookEstimates have been broadly trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. It comes with little surprise Micron has a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). We expect an above average return from the stock in the next few months.
Key Takeaways Several semiconductor stocks lost ground Friday, reversing gains earlier in the week when big chip buyers pledged to spend more on AI.Many chip stocks have fallen from their highs in recent weeks amid a broader pullback in the AI trade. Get personalized, AI-powered answers built on 27+ years of trusted expertise.
Semiconductor stocks are resuming their recent slide.
Several semiconductor stocks lost ground Friday, reversing gains earlier in the week when big chip buyers Alphabet (GOOGL) and Tesla (TSLA) said they planned to invest heavily in AI. The PHLX Semiconductor index (SOX) was down 3% recently, as Broadcom (AVGO) and TSMC (TSM) fell 2% and Intel (INTC) tumbled more than 4% despite reporting quarterly results that blew past expectations on surging AI-related demand.
Shares of memory favorites Micron Technology (MU) and Sandisk (SNDK) were some of the biggest decliners in the S&P 500 Friday, with shares down 6% and 7%, respectively, on a day when the broader index gained. The Roundhill Memory ETF (DRAM) plunged 7%.
Why This Matters to Investors Friday’s slump could underscore weakening sentiment surrounding some of this year’s biggest AI beneficiaries amid worries about the sustainability of spending in the sector.
The moves could threaten to extend what’s been a tough few weeks for the sector amid a broader pullback in the AI trade, with the PHLX Semiconductor index’s recent slide leaving it nearly 20% off its June highs.
Gabelli Funds portfolio manager John Belton told CNBC in a televised interview Friday that the “reversion trade” pressuring some of this year’s best-performing stocks could underscore a “risk-off attitude” among investors, but that a string of strong earnings reports recently—including Intel’s—don’t justify Friday’s selloff.1
In emailed comments, Belton suggested investors may have been caught off guard by renewed tensions in the Middle East and rising Treasury yields, which tend to weigh on growth stocks as borrowing becomes more expensive. With fundamentals “potentially getting even stronger in the coming quarters,” Belton said he “would not be surprising to see a bit of a shift in sentiment” back in favor of AI stocks.
Even with Friday’s decline, Sandisk and Micron remain among the S&P 500’s strongest performers this year, with shares up some 500% and 200%, respectively for 2026. Intel shares have surged roughly 160%.
There isn't one “smoking gun” catalyst — but investors could be reacting to Chinese memory developments, Korean stock-market weakness and Intel's inability to sustain postearnings gains
Investors often turn to recommendations made by Wall Street analysts before making a Buy, Sell, or Hold decision about a stock. While media reports about rating changes by these brokerage-firm employed (or sell-side) analysts often affect a stock's price, do they really matter?
Before we discuss the reliability of brokerage recommendations and how to use them to your advantage, let's see what these Wall Street heavyweights think about Micron (MU - Free Report) .
Micron currently has an average brokerage recommendation (ABR) of 1.32, on a scale of 1 to 5 (Strong Buy to Strong Sell), calculated based on the actual recommendations (Buy, Hold, Sell, etc.) made by 41 brokerage firms. An ABR of 1.32 approximates between Strong Buy and Buy.
Of the 41 recommendations that derive the current ABR, 32 are Strong Buy and five are Buy. Strong Buy and Buy respectively account for 78.1% and 12.2% of all recommendations.
Brokerage Recommendation Trends for MU
Check price target & stock forecast for Micron here>>>
The ABR suggests buying Micron, but making an investment decision solely on the basis of this information might not be a good idea. According to several studies, brokerage recommendations have little to no success guiding investors to choose stocks with the most potential for price appreciation.
Do you wonder why? As a result of the vested interest of brokerage firms in a stock they cover, their analysts tend to rate it with a strong positive bias. According to our research, brokerage firms assign five "Strong Buy" recommendations for every "Strong Sell" recommendation.
In other words, their interests aren't always aligned with retail investors, rarely indicating where the price of a stock could actually be heading. Therefore, the best use of this information could be validating your own research or an indicator that has proven to be highly successful in predicting a stock's price movement.
With an impressive externally audited track record, our proprietary stock rating tool, the Zacks Rank, which classifies stocks into five groups, ranging from Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) to Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell), is a reliable indicator of a stock's near-term price performance. So, validating the Zacks Rank with ABR could go a long way in making a profitable investment decision.
ABR Should Not Be Confused With Zacks RankAlthough both Zacks Rank and ABR are displayed in a range of 1--5, they are different measures altogether.
Broker recommendations are the sole basis for calculating the ABR, which is typically displayed in decimals (such as 1.28). The Zacks Rank, on the other hand, is a quantitative model designed to harness the power of earnings estimate revisions. It is displayed in whole numbers -- 1 to 5.
Analysts employed by brokerage firms have been and continue to be overly optimistic with their recommendations. Since the ratings issued by these analysts are more favorable than their research would support because of the vested interest of their employers, they mislead investors far more often than they guide.
In contrast, the Zacks Rank is driven by earnings estimate revisions. And near-term stock price movements are strongly correlated with trends in earnings estimate revisions, according to empirical research.
In addition, the different Zacks Rank grades are applied proportionately to all stocks for which brokerage analysts provide current-year earnings estimates. In other words, this tool always maintains a balance among its five ranks.
Another key difference between the ABR and Zacks Rank is freshness. The ABR is not necessarily up-to-date when you look at it. But, since brokerage analysts keep revising their earnings estimates to account for a company's changing business trends, and their actions get reflected in the Zacks Rank quickly enough, it is always timely in indicating future price movements.
Is MU a Good Investment?Looking at the earnings estimate revisions for Micron, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the current year has increased 20.3% over the past month to $73.85.
Analysts' growing optimism over the company's earnings prospects, as indicated by strong agreement among them in revising EPS estimates higher, could be a legitimate reason for the stock to soar in the near term.
The size of the recent change in the consensus estimate, along with three other factors related to earnings estimates, has resulted in a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) for Micron. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) stocks here >>>>
Therefore, the Buy-equivalent ABR for Micron may serve as a useful guide for investors.
Easy come, easy go. Micron (MU -4.90%) stock closed up 3.2% Thursday evening, but it's giving all those gains back this morning, with shares down 5.7% through 10 a.m. ET.
And yet, the news for Micron today is actually pretty good.
Image source: Micron.
Citi says "buy chip stocks" Let's start with the news from Wall Street, where Citigroup is calling the recent broad-based sell-off in semiconductor stocks a buying opportunity for investors. Insatiable data center demand is driving sales of AI chips and memory chips from companies such as Micron to support them, says Citi. Roughly 34% of semiconductor demand comes from this direction, and Citi sees demand continuing to outstrip supply through 2030.
Automotive and industrial chips demand makes up 21% of the market, and is growing as well. Really, the only market for chips that's weakening is in PCs, mobile phones, and consumer electronics. That's 42% of the market -- a big chunk -- but it's only weakening because memory costs so much, and there's not enough supply!
Suffice it to say, all of this sounds pretty bullish for Micron, which supplies the memory and reaps the high prices.
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Intel proves demand is strong On top of this good news, Intel (INTC -4.77%) just reported a big earnings beat -- pro forma profits of $0.42 per share that were twice what Wall Street expected -- and sales growing 25% to $16.1 billion, beating estimates and showing Intel's fastest revenue growth in nearly 15 years.
Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan says "AI is driving unprecedented demand for compute," with notable growth in sales of Intel Xeon processors for inference solutions (i.e., answering questions). That's a segment of the artificial intelligence market known to require especially large amounts of memory chips to function.
These are all reasons to buy Micron stock -- not sell it.
Citigroup is an advertising partner of Motley Fool Money. Rich Smith has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Intel and Micron Technology. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
SK Hynix (NASDAQ:SKHY) ADRs are down 6% in Friday morning trading to $158.56 as a Korea-led memory selloff pulls the entire chip complex lower. Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU | MU Price Prediction) stock is off 6% to $929, SanDisk (NASDAQ:SNDK) shares are down 9% to $1,467, and Western Digital (NASDAQ:WDC) stock is trading 6% lower at $523.48.
The Roundhill Memory ETF (CBOE:DRAM) is down 7% to $54, confirming a broad group retreat rather than a single-name story. The NASDAQ 100 is down 1% and has now fallen for a third straight session to a one-month low, so today’s memory weakness is riding on top of a broader tech pullback.
The move caps a volatile stretch for the memory/storage group after a huge run higher, and the pullback still leaves the sector deeply in the green for the year.
Korea-Led Selloff Sparks Sympathy Move The catalyst traces to an overnight KOSPI selloff in South Korea led by Samsung and SK Hynix. U.S. memory names have become increasingly bundled with the KOSPI given its heavy weighting to those two, so weakness in Seoul is flowing straight through to Micron, SanDisk, and Western Digital shares.
Layered on top is a broader tech pullback. The NASDAQ has fallen three sessions in a row after results from Alphabet‘s (NASDAQ:GOOGL) Google and Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), with U.S.-Iran escalation adding pressure.
Notably, Micron is falling even after Tesla CEO Elon Musk praised the company’s “very significant allocation” of memory chips to Tesla on Thursday’s earnings call. That underscores today’s action as a group and macro move, not a Micron-specific problem.
Pullback Inside a Massive Rally Today’s drop lands inside one of the sharpest sector runs in years. Micron stock is up 227% year to date (YTD), SanDisk shares have gained 526% YTD, and Western Digital stock is up 209% YTD, all fueled by AI memory demand and blowout earnings.
Micron’s fiscal Q3 2026 revenue landed at $41.46 billion, up 345.7% year over year (YoY), with non-GAAP EPS of $25.11 against a $20.28 consensus. Micron guided Q4 revenue to $50 billion plus or minus $1 billion and EPS to $31, and CEO Sanjay Mehrotra highlighted “the strategic value of memory in the AI era.”
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SanDisk’s most recent quarter posted revenue of $5.95 billion with EPS of $23.41, and Western Digital delivered $3.34 billion in revenue with non-GAAP EPS of $2.72. None of those numbers explain today’s drop, which is why the DRAM ETF’s decline is a cleaner read on the sector rotation.
Micron stock now trades at a forward P/E ratio of 6x, and analyst price targets sit near $1,507, meaningfully above current levels. SanDisk shares carry a heavier trailing P/E ratio of 55x, which helps explain why the highest-multiple names in the group are giving back the most today.
Sentiment and Prediction Markets Flash Caution Polymarket traders are pricing a 97% probability that Micron stock closes lower today, with the week likely settling near $920. Longer-dated markets show only a 12% probability that Micron shares finish July above $1,100, suggesting limited near-term bounce conviction.
Reddit sentiment on Micron cooled from a bullish reading of 62 earlier in the week to a neutral 54, mirroring the fade in retail enthusiasm. The VIX has jumped to 18.7, up 12.4% on the day, though it remains inside its normal range.
What to Watch SK Hynix reports earnings on July 29, and pre-print positioning may explain part of today’s Korea-side pressure. Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) stock is also weak at $97, suggesting that the softness extends beyond memory into the broader semiconductor complex.
Investors can watch for whether Micron and SanDisk shares hold their recent breakout levels into the close, and whether any updates from the next Korean session shift the tone. The DRAM ETF’s top three holdings, Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron, account for 72% of the fund’s net assets, so investors should consider keeping their position sizes modest given that concentration and today’s volatility.
The AI memory super cycle thesis remains intact on the earnings side, but sentiment has clearly rotated. Traders may want to watch for whether today’s lows hold or give way as the session moves toward Friday’s close.
Act now: the analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks — and Micron Technology didn't make the cut. Grab the names FREE today.
SummaryMicron Technology, Inc. remains a leading beneficiary of AI infrastructure growth, as expanding memory requirements increase the TAM across HBM, DRAM and NAND.Next-generation frontier models like Kimi K3 are becoming more compute efficient, yet larger parameters, longer context windows and expanding agentic context stores drive substantially higher memory intensity.Lower inference costs allow increased usage within constrained token spend budgets, while making previously uneconomical AI applications viable across new industries and use cases.Greater token usage and broader AI adoption compound the inherently higher memory requirements of larger frontier models, accelerating bit-demand growth that could be additive to Micron's fundamental outlook. JHVEPhoto/iStock Editorial via Getty Images
Renewed market concerns about compute oversupply and AI overspending on the heels of a new round of tech earnings and AI spending updates have added pressure on broader memory industry multiples. Despite being one
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Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.
Bank of Nova Scotia trimmed its position in Micron Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ:MU – Free Report) by 64.7% during the 1st quarter, according to its most recent filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The fund owned 1,237,399 shares of the semiconductor manufacturer’s stock after selling 2,269,995 shares during the quarter. Micron Technology comprises 0.7% of Bank of Nova Scotia’s investment portfolio, making the stock its 24th biggest position. Bank of Nova Scotia owned 0.11% of Micron Technology worth $418,043,000 at the end of the most recent quarter.
Several other hedge funds have also made changes to their positions in MU. Gibbs Wealth Management increased its holdings in shares of Micron Technology by 108.8% during the 1st quarter. Gibbs Wealth Management now owns 1,516 shares of the semiconductor manufacturer’s stock worth $512,000 after buying an additional 790 shares during the last quarter. Sei Investments Co. lifted its holdings in Micron Technology by 39.5% in the first quarter. Sei Investments Co. now owns 802,106 shares of the semiconductor manufacturer’s stock valued at $270,980,000 after acquiring an additional 227,276 shares during the last quarter. MWA Asset Management lifted its holdings in Micron Technology by 105.1% in the first quarter. MWA Asset Management now owns 1,487 shares of the semiconductor manufacturer’s stock valued at $502,000 after acquiring an additional 762 shares during the last quarter. State of Wyoming purchased a new position in Micron Technology in the first quarter worth approximately $335,000. Finally, Cetera Investment Advisers increased its stake in Micron Technology by 13.9% during the first quarter. Cetera Investment Advisers now owns 385,997 shares of the semiconductor manufacturer’s stock worth $130,405,000 after acquiring an additional 47,064 shares during the last quarter. Hedge funds and other institutional investors own 80.84% of the company’s stock.
Insider Buying and Selling at Micron Technology In other news, Director Steven J. Gomo sold 2,000 shares of the company’s stock in a transaction on Monday, May 11th. The stock was sold at an average price of $787.03, for a total transaction of $1,574,060.00. Following the sale, the director owned 17,139 shares of the company’s stock, valued at approximately $13,488,907.17. This represents a 10.45% decrease in their ownership of the stock. The transaction was disclosed in a legal filing with the Securities & Exchange Commission, which can be accessed through the SEC website. Also, EVP April S. Arnzen sold 40,000 shares of the stock in a transaction on Wednesday, July 1st. The shares were sold at an average price of $1,083.94, for a total value of $43,357,600.00. Following the completion of the sale, the executive vice president owned 85,737 shares in the company, valued at approximately $92,933,763.78. The trade was a 31.81% decrease in their ownership of the stock. Additional details regarding this sale are available in the official SEC disclosure. In the last three months, insiders have sold 163,300 shares of company stock worth $152,667,204. 0.24% of the stock is currently owned by insiders.
Analysts Set New Price Targets A number of equities research analysts have commented on the company. Melius Research began coverage on Micron Technology in a research report on Monday, April 27th. They issued a “buy” rating and a $700.00 target price on the stock. Sanford C. Bernstein set a $1,300.00 price objective on Micron Technology in a research report on Monday, June 22nd. The Goldman Sachs Group boosted their price objective on shares of Micron Technology from $900.00 to $1,100.00 and gave the company a “neutral” rating in a report on Thursday, June 25th. UBS Group upped their target price on shares of Micron Technology from $535.00 to $1,625.00 and gave the company a “buy” rating in a research report on Tuesday, May 26th. Finally, Stifel Nicolaus increased their target price on shares of Micron Technology from $550.00 to $1,500.00 and gave the stock a “buy” rating in a research note on Thursday, June 18th. Four investment analysts have rated the stock with a Strong Buy rating, thirty have assigned a Buy rating and three have assigned a Hold rating to the company. Based on data from MarketBeat, the company currently has an average rating of “Buy” and an average target price of $1,268.93.
Read Our Latest Stock Analysis on MU
Micron Technology Stock Up 3.2% Shares of MU opened at $990.21 on Friday. The stock has a market capitalization of $1.12 trillion, a PE ratio of 22.42 and a beta of 2.14. Micron Technology, Inc. has a 1 year low of $103.38 and a 1 year high of $1,255.00. The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.05, a quick ratio of 2.98 and a current ratio of 3.42. The company’s 50-day simple moving average is $962.35 and its 200-day simple moving average is $620.46.
Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU – Get Free Report) last announced its quarterly earnings data on Wednesday, June 24th. The semiconductor manufacturer reported $25.11 earnings per share for the quarter, beating analysts’ consensus estimates of $21.39 by $3.72. Micron Technology had a net margin of 55.91% and a return on equity of 71.13%. The firm had revenue of $41.46 billion during the quarter, compared to analysts’ expectations of $35.91 billion. During the same quarter in the previous year, the business posted $1.91 earnings per share. The business’s quarterly revenue was up 345.8% compared to the same quarter last year. Micron Technology has set its Q4 2026 guidance at 30.000-32.000 EPS. Analysts forecast that Micron Technology, Inc. will post 72.93 earnings per share for the current fiscal year.
Micron Technology Announces Dividend The firm also recently declared a quarterly dividend, which was paid on Tuesday, July 21st. Shareholders of record on Monday, July 6th were paid a $0.15 dividend. The ex-dividend date was Monday, July 6th. This represents a $0.60 annualized dividend and a dividend yield of 0.1%. Micron Technology’s payout ratio is 1.36%.
Micron Technology News Roundup Here are the key news stories impacting Micron Technology this week:
Positive Sentiment: Alphabet’s stronger capital-expenditure outlook for 2026 eased fears of an AI spending slowdown, which is lifting Micron and other memory-chip names on expectations for sustained demand. Micron stock gains 3%: how is the company benefiting from Alphabet and Tesla earnings Positive Sentiment: Elon Musk publicly thanked Micron during Tesla’s earnings call, adding to bullish sentiment around the company and helping fuel the stock’s recent rebound. Micron Technology Stock (MU) Is Recovering. Thank Elon Musk Positive Sentiment: Investor enthusiasm for the broader semiconductor and memory complex remains strong, with articles highlighting tight DRAM supply, rising memory prices, and heavy inflows into memory-focused ETFs. DRAM ETF inflows rise as Micron, SanDisk, SK Hynix, Samsung lead rally amid risks Positive Sentiment: Recent commentary also points to Micron’s strong margins and earnings momentum, reinforcing the view that the company is benefiting from a powerful AI-driven memory upcycle. Jim Cramer Still Loves Micron. Here Is the 1 Number That Shows Why He Is Right. About Micron Technology (Free Report)
Micron Technology, Inc is a global semiconductor company that designs and manufactures memory and storage solutions. Its product portfolio includes dynamic random-access memory (DRAM), NAND flash memory, solid-state drives (SSDs), memory modules and embedded memory solutions for a wide range of computing and electronic devices. Micron supplies components used in data centers, enterprise and cloud infrastructure, client computing, mobile devices, automotive systems and industrial applications, and also markets consumer-facing products under the Crucial brand.
Founded in 1978 and headquartered in Boise, Idaho, Micron has grown into an international manufacturer with research, development and production facilities across multiple regions.
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Key Takeaways Micron is accelerating HBM4 production as rising AI workloads drive demand for high-bandwidth memory.HBM4 revenues topped $1B, while the 12-high ramp-up is progressing twice as fast as the HBM3E transition.Faster yield gains, added packaging capacity and customer deals could strengthen Micron's market position. Micron Technology, Inc. (MU - Free Report) is strengthening its position in the fast-growing artificial intelligence (AI) memory market by accelerating the production of its HBM4 products. As AI models become larger and more complex, demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) continues to rise.
The faster HBM4 ramp-up could help Micron Technology capture a larger share of this expanding market while supporting higher revenues and profitability. According to a Counterpoint Research report, MU ended the first quarter of 2026 with a 21% market share in the HBM space, trailing SK Hynix’s (SKHY - Free Report) 58%.
The company's momentum is already visible. During the third quarter of fiscal 2026, Micron Technology generated record revenues of $41.46 billion, up 346% year over year, while non-GAAP earnings reached $25.11 per share compared with $1.91 in the year-ago quarter. AI-driven demand was a major contributor, with annualized data center revenues exceeding $100 billion and data center SSD revenues more than doubling sequentially.
HBM4 is emerging as Micron Technology's biggest growth catalyst. The company has already shipped more than $1 billion in HBM4 revenues, and management said the 12-high HBM4 ramp-up is progressing twice as fast as the earlier HBM3E 12-high transition. Micron Technology also expects HBM4 to achieve mature manufacturing yields much faster, improving production efficiency and profitability. Qualification samples have been delivered to multiple customers, while high-volume shipments are already underway for its lead AI platform.
Industry conditions also remain favorable. Micron Technology expects DRAM and NAND demand to exceed supply beyond calendar year 2027 as AI adoption expands across data centers, enterprise computing and edge devices. Combined with its advanced 1-gamma DRAM technology, expanding packaging capacity and long-term customer agreements, the faster HBM4 ramp-up could help Micron Technology strengthen its competitive position against rivals and remain one of the biggest beneficiaries of the AI memory boom.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Micron Technology’s fiscal 2026 revenues is currently pegged at $129.61 billion, indicating robust year-over-year growth of approximately 247%.
How Do Micron’s Rivals Compare in the AI Memory Race?SK Hynix remains Micron Technology's biggest rival in the HBM market, while SanDisk (SNDK - Free Report) competes in NAND flash and enterprise storage.
SK Hynix has established an early lead in HBM by supplying memory for leading AI accelerators and continues to expand production to meet surging demand. SK Hynix created the HBM market by jointly developing the very first generation with AMD in 2013. When the generative AI boom arrived, SK Hynix leveraged this head start to become the primary memory supplier for NVIDIA's AI processors.
SanDisk is benefiting from the recovery in NAND pricing and rising demand for high-capacity enterprise SSDs used in AI data centers. In the third quarter of fiscal 2026, the company’s revenues surged 251% year over year to $5.95 billion. However, its growth is tied primarily to flash storage rather than HBM, making it less exposed to the fastest-growing segment of AI infrastructure.
In contrast, Micron Technology is gaining from both HBM and NAND demand, giving it a broader AI opportunity. As AI adoption accelerates, MU's faster HBM4 ramp-up, expanding advanced packaging capacity and balanced exposure across DRAM and NAND could help it strengthen its competitive position against both SK Hynix and SanDisk while supporting long-term revenue and margin growth.
Micron’s Price Performance, Valuation and EstimatesShares of Micron have surged around 248.4% year to date compared with the Zacks Computer and Technology sector’s return of 13.2%.
From a valuation standpoint, MU trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 6.66, significantly lower than the sector’s average of 23.73.
Micron Technology 12-Month Forward P/E Ratio
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Micron’s fiscal 2026 and 2027 earnings implies a year-over-year increase of 791% and 114%, respectively. Bottom-line estimates for fiscal 2026 have been revised upward in the past 30 days and revised northward over the past seven for fiscal 2027.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Micron currently sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Arrowstreet Capital Limited Partnership cut its stake in Micron Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ:MU – Free Report) by 12.0% in the first quarter, according to its most recent Form 13F filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The firm owned 2,481,646 shares of the semiconductor manufacturer’s stock after selling 339,340 shares during the quarter. Arrowstreet Capital Limited Partnership owned approximately 0.22% of Micron Technology worth $838,379,000 at the end of the most recent reporting period.
Other hedge funds and other institutional investors have also made changes to their positions in the company. High Note Wealth LLC increased its stake in shares of Micron Technology by 65.4% in the 4th quarter. High Note Wealth LLC now owns 86 shares of the semiconductor manufacturer’s stock valued at $25,000 after purchasing an additional 34 shares in the last quarter. Kohmann Bosshard Financial Services LLC purchased a new stake in shares of Micron Technology in the first quarter valued at approximately $27,000. Steigerwald Gordon & Koch Inc. raised its stake in shares of Micron Technology by 4,800.0% during the 4th quarter. Steigerwald Gordon & Koch Inc. now owns 98 shares of the semiconductor manufacturer’s stock worth $28,000 after buying an additional 96 shares during the period. Bayban purchased a new position in shares of Micron Technology during the 4th quarter valued at approximately $29,000. Finally, GHP Investment Advisors Inc. lifted its position in shares of Micron Technology by 91.2% during the 4th quarter. GHP Investment Advisors Inc. now owns 109 shares of the semiconductor manufacturer’s stock valued at $31,000 after buying an additional 52 shares in the last quarter. Institutional investors and hedge funds own 80.84% of the company’s stock.
Insider Activity In other news, CEO Sanjay Mehrotra sold 28,506 shares of Micron Technology stock in a transaction that occurred on Friday, June 26th. The shares were sold at an average price of $1,149.28, for a total transaction of $32,761,375.68. Following the sale, the chief executive officer owned 355,997 shares of the company’s stock, valued at approximately $409,140,232.16. The trade was a 7.41% decrease in their position. The transaction was disclosed in a filing with the Securities & Exchange Commission, which can be accessed through this link. Also, Director Steven J. Gomo sold 2,000 shares of the stock in a transaction that occurred on Monday, May 11th. The stock was sold at an average price of $787.03, for a total value of $1,574,060.00. Following the completion of the transaction, the director owned 17,139 shares of the company’s stock, valued at $13,488,907.17. The trade was a 10.45% decrease in their ownership of the stock. The disclosure for this sale is available in the SEC filing. Insiders have sold 163,300 shares of company stock worth $152,667,204 over the last quarter. 0.24% of the stock is currently owned by corporate insiders.
Micron Technology Stock Performance NASDAQ MU opened at $990.21 on Friday. The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.05, a quick ratio of 2.98 and a current ratio of 3.42. The stock’s fifty day moving average is $962.35 and its two-hundred day moving average is $620.46. The firm has a market capitalization of $1.12 trillion, a P/E ratio of 22.42 and a beta of 2.14. Micron Technology, Inc. has a fifty-two week low of $103.38 and a fifty-two week high of $1,255.00.
Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU – Get Free Report) last posted its quarterly earnings results on Wednesday, June 24th. The semiconductor manufacturer reported $25.11 EPS for the quarter, topping the consensus estimate of $21.39 by $3.72. Micron Technology had a return on equity of 71.13% and a net margin of 55.91%.The business had revenue of $41.46 billion for the quarter, compared to analyst estimates of $35.91 billion. During the same quarter in the previous year, the firm earned $1.91 EPS. The company’s quarterly revenue was up 345.8% compared to the same quarter last year. Micron Technology has set its Q4 2026 guidance at 30.000-32.000 EPS. On average, research analysts anticipate that Micron Technology, Inc. will post 72.93 earnings per share for the current year.
Micron Technology Announces Dividend The company also recently declared a quarterly dividend, which was paid on Tuesday, July 21st. Stockholders of record on Monday, July 6th were paid a $0.15 dividend. The ex-dividend date of this dividend was Monday, July 6th. This represents a $0.60 annualized dividend and a dividend yield of 0.1%. Micron Technology’s dividend payout ratio is 1.36%.
Micron Technology News Roundup Here are the key news stories impacting Micron Technology this week:
Positive Sentiment: Alphabet’s stronger capital-expenditure outlook for 2026 eased fears of an AI spending slowdown, which is lifting Micron and other memory-chip names on expectations for sustained demand. Micron stock gains 3%: how is the company benefiting from Alphabet and Tesla earnings Positive Sentiment: Elon Musk publicly thanked Micron during Tesla’s earnings call, adding to bullish sentiment around the company and helping fuel the stock’s recent rebound. Micron Technology Stock (MU) Is Recovering. Thank Elon Musk Positive Sentiment: Investor enthusiasm for the broader semiconductor and memory complex remains strong, with articles highlighting tight DRAM supply, rising memory prices, and heavy inflows into memory-focused ETFs. DRAM ETF inflows rise as Micron, SanDisk, SK Hynix, Samsung lead rally amid risks Positive Sentiment: Recent commentary also points to Micron’s strong margins and earnings momentum, reinforcing the view that the company is benefiting from a powerful AI-driven memory upcycle. Jim Cramer Still Loves Micron. Here Is the 1 Number That Shows Why He Is Right. Wall Street Analysts Forecast Growth A number of research firms have weighed in on MU. Stifel Nicolaus upped their price objective on shares of Micron Technology from $550.00 to $1,500.00 and gave the stock a “buy” rating in a research report on Thursday, June 18th. Raymond James Financial lifted their price objective on Micron Technology from $1,100.00 to $1,500.00 and gave the stock an “outperform” rating in a report on Thursday, June 25th. Wolfe Research set a $1,500.00 target price on Micron Technology in a report on Thursday, June 25th. Barclays lifted their price target on Micron Technology from $1,175.00 to $2,000.00 and gave the stock an “overweight” rating in a research note on Thursday, June 25th. Finally, Cantor Fitzgerald restated an “overweight” rating and issued a $1,500.00 price objective on shares of Micron Technology in a report on Thursday, June 25th. Four research analysts have rated the stock with a Strong Buy rating, thirty have given a Buy rating and three have given a Hold rating to the stock. According to data from MarketBeat.com, Micron Technology currently has an average rating of “Buy” and a consensus price target of $1,268.93.
Check Out Our Latest Report on Micron Technology
Micron Technology Company Profile (Free Report)
Micron Technology, Inc is a global semiconductor company that designs and manufactures memory and storage solutions. Its product portfolio includes dynamic random-access memory (DRAM), NAND flash memory, solid-state drives (SSDs), memory modules and embedded memory solutions for a wide range of computing and electronic devices. Micron supplies components used in data centers, enterprise and cloud infrastructure, client computing, mobile devices, automotive systems and industrial applications, and also markets consumer-facing products under the Crucial brand.
Founded in 1978 and headquartered in Boise, Idaho, Micron has grown into an international manufacturer with research, development and production facilities across multiple regions.
Featured Articles Five stocks we like better than Micron Technology Premium Retail’s Stress Test Is Separating Winners From Losers D-Wave Quantum or a Quantum ETF: Which Is the Better Bet? GE Vernova Just Sent a Mixed AI Signal to Investors Alphabet Crushed Earnings, But One Number Spooked the Market Want to see what other hedge funds are holding MU? Visit HoldingsChannel.com to get the latest 13F filings and insider trades for Micron Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ:MU – Free Report).
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Micron stock and SK Hynix stock slipped lower early Friday but remain well-positioned for gains amid Big Tech earnings that have so far benefitted chips stocks but weighed on the S&P 500.
Micron Technology (MU +2.51%) has been one of the top-performing stocks in 2026. Its price jumped from less than $400 per share at the end of the first quarter to almost $1,200 per share by the end of the second quarter. Since then, however, it has retreated, and now sits about 18% below its peak. Overall, that leaves it up by almost 250% year to date.
Investors who missed out on the incredible run-up in the stock price this year may be wondering whether the pullback is a buying opportunity. But at around $990 per share, the stock still looks too expensive for me. I won't start considering the stock until it trades around $525, based on what we know about the company and its outlook today.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
Here's why Micron is still too expensive for me Investors might look at Micron's forward P/E ratio of just over 6 times estimated earnings and think the stock is insanely cheap. In my opinion, that price is still above its fair value based on a reasonable outlook for the memory chip industry.
Memory chips are, for all intents and purposes, a commodity product. A chipmaker could package a Micron chip with its AI accelerator and achieve results very similar to those it would get with a chip from SK Hynix or Samsung. As a result, the ability of any single company to increase its chip supply will affect pricing for every other company in the industry. That puts each of them in a prisoner's dilemma: During periods of high demand and short supply (the memory market's current condition), they all must build new production capacity to avoid losing market share. But in doing so, they create the conditions for a future oversupply, which ultimately leads to slumping prices and a decline in profits. This is the pattern that the memory market has always followed.
Micron's current earnings cycle is entering its late stages. Analysts currently project its earnings will peak in 2028. The drop in earnings in 2029 could be substantial, as it doesn't take a large price decline to have a big impact on earnings for such capital-intensive businesses.
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Micron has historically traded at earnings multiples between 3 and 8 times peak earnings around cyclical peaks. Even so, the stock has declined even as its P/E ratio has increased in some cases where earnings declines exceeded expectations.
The risk with Micron isn't that an earnings peak isn't priced into the stock. That's evident from its current P/E ratio. It's that the drop in earnings could be more significant than expected. To protect that downside, a 3-times peak earnings multiple seems like a safe price to pay for the stock, and one that would still provide some upside through the rest of the earnings cycle. Analysts currently expect earnings per share to peak around $178 in 2028. I round that down to $175 and multiply by three to get a $525 price. That's where the stock would start to look interesting to me.
That target could change as Micron, SK Hynix, and Samsung provide updates to their progress. Any signs of pricing growing faster or slower than expected, increases in data center capital expenditures, or updated timelines for the construction of new chip foundries could meaningfully alter the longer-term earnings projections. Based on what's known today, though, I won't be interested in buying Micron stock until it trades much lower.
Micron stock's next catalyst may be coming from the Chinese model that initially unsettled semiconductor investors.
MU closed Thursday at $990.21, up 3.2%, after Alphabet raised its 2026 capital-spending forecast and revived confidence in data-centre demand.
Another signal is emerging from Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3. The low-cost, open-weight model was viewed as a threat to expensive Western infrastructure, but its popularity quickly strained computing capacity.
That reversal supports a Wall Street argument that cheaper AI may reduce the cost of each task while increasing the number of tasks, deployments and memory chips required.
Kimi K3 is a mixture-of-experts model with 2.8 trillion parameters and 50 billion active.
Its performance and low API prices revived comparisons with DeepSeek, raising fears that US technology groups were overspending on processors and data centres.
Demand then produced the opposite warning. Moonshot said usage pushed its infrastructure to capacity, forcing it to pause new subscriptions so customers could retain access.
For Micron, the point is not a confirmed order from Moonshot.
No such purchase has been disclosed, but the signal is that large, inexpensive models still consume memory when deployed at scale.
Bank of America analyst Vivek Arya said Chinese pricing reflects “business-model choices” rather than lower hardware costs, MarketWatch reported.
He added that model weights and active parameters can require “the same or more memory.” BofA reiterated its Buy rating and $1,550 target.
Open-weight models can transfer infrastructure spending from the developer to businesses operating them.
Deployments require servers, DRAM and storage even when access to the model is cheap.
The investment case resembles the Jevons paradox: when technology becomes cheaper, total consumption can rise because more customers adopt it and existing users run more workloads.
Wedbush analyst Matt Bryson said larger models require more memory to hold their parameters, either increasing memory content per accelerator or forcing larger chip clusters.
Continued adoption of Chinese models could therefore be “arguably good for memory vendors,” he said.
Micron, SK Hynix and Samsung are suppliers of high-bandwidth memory used alongside AI accelerators.
Wider deployment can also lift demand for DRAM and NAND storage needed to serve models and retain data.
Kimi K3 strengthens the demand thesis without proving that Micron will sell directly into China. Export restrictions, local suppliers and procurement arrangements make that conclusion premature.
The signal matters because data-centre memory supply is already tight.
Morgan Stanley analyst Joseph Moore said shortages “show no signs of abating,” according to MarketWatch, and expects prices to rise at least 25% from the second quarter to the third.
Moore argued that weakness in PCs, smartphones or consumer products could become a misleading “false flag” because AI data centres are absorbing so much DRAM.
Cloud customers are paying premiums to secure supply, while shortages are expected to persist through 2028.
Micron has reinforced that outlook by signing 16 multiyear customer agreements expected to generate about $22 billion in cash deposits and related financial commitments.
Many investors are debating whether Micron (MU +2.51%) stock is an attractive purchase for long-term investment.
*Stock prices used were the afternoon prices of July 21, 2026. The video was published on July 23, 2026.
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Micron Technology. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. Parkev Tatevosian is an affiliate of The Motley Fool and may be compensated for promoting its services. If you choose to subscribe through his link, he will earn some extra money that supports his channel. His opinions remain his own and are unaffected by The Motley Fool.
With surging demand, limited production capacity, and skyrocketing prices, the dynamic random-access memory (DRAM) market has been red-hot this year. While there are three big players in the memory space, SK Hynix (SKHY +3.19%) and Micron (MU +3.13%) stand out as the two pure plays for investors to choose from, as the third supplier, Samsung, is a massive conglomerate involved in a variety of businesses.
The DRAM market is being driven by surging data center demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM), which is packaged with graphics processing units (GPUs) and other AI chips to help optimize their performance. Inference tends to be even more memory reliant than AI model training, so the pickup in this segment of the AI market is helping drive demand even more. With high prices and strong margins supported by demand that well exceeds what they are able to produce, the big three memory makers have turned most of their focus to increasing their HBM manufacturing capacity.
However, with HBM, GPUs, and other high-performance chips all being manufactured using extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography and only one company in the world, ASML, able to make the massive and complex machines required, there is a limit to how much chipmaking capacity can be added in a single year. On top of that, producing HBM requires upwards of three times the wafer capacity as ordinary DRAM, which further limits capacity increases.
With the big three DRAM makers focusing their efforts and capacities on HBM, ordinary DRAM is also in short supply. As a result, prices for all types of DRAM have skyrocketed. SK Hynix's CEO recently said that 2027 will bring the worst memory crunch in the industry's history and predicted that demand could outpace supply past 2030. This dynamic has been a huge boon to both SK Hynix and Micron, lifting their revenues, gross margins, and profits. Conditions could be even more favorable for them next year.
But for investors, the question is which stock looks like the better buy now.
SK Hynix: The market leader
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SK Hynix is arguably the memory market leader. While Samsung has the highest market share for both DRAM and NAND, SK Hynix was the first to develop HBM, and it has a close partnership with Nvidia. It's also the GPU leader's main HBM supply partner. This relationship has helped it become the market share leader in what is perhaps the most important segment of the market, where it holds a nearly 60% share.
Overall, SK Hynix derives close to 80% of its revenue from DRAM and most of the rest from NAND (flash memory). Somewhat ironically, despite increasing HBM capacity and rising prices, standard DRAM server prices rose even more dramatically, so that segment made up a larger percentage of its DRAM revenue in Q1 than it did in the prior-year period. Overall, the company's revenue surged nearly 200% in Q1, while its gross margin went from 57% to 79%. That led to a nearly 400% surge in profit.
SK Hynix has started to lock in longer-term sales agreements for the first time, getting between three- and five-year agreements with no price caps, up-front payments from customers, and price floors. Meanwhile, it's looking to double its wafer capacity by 2030.
Micron: Booming growth
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Similar to SK Hynix, Micron derived about 76% of its revenue from DRAM last quarter, with NAND making up the rest. Last quarter, its revenue more than quadrupled year over year, and gross margin jumped from 37.7% to 84.6%.
It, too, has started to sign long-term agreements, which it says now cover about 40% of its revenue. One area where it diverges from SK Hynix, though, is that its contracts have price caps, along with some take-or-pay provisions. Micron is also investing aggressively to increase its production capacity.
Image source: The Motley Fool
The verdict SK Hynix is the HBM market leader, and its longer-term contracts without price caps could give it more upside if the up phase of this DRAM supercycle persists. Its American depositary receipts (ADRs) currently trade at a forward P/E of under 6, similar to Micron's valuation.
The knock on the stock, though, is that its ADRs trade at a big premium valuation to its stock in South Korea. This situation has been leading to some crazy price movements. I think SK Hynix is the better company, and its ADRs trade at a similar valuation to Micron, making it the better long-term buy. However, SK Hynix's trading dynamic is something worth considering when weighing whether to purchase the stock.
Micron (MU +3.59%) stock jumped 3.7% through 2 p.m. ET on Thursday, on no obvious good news for the computer memory stock -- but I think we can figure out why Micron popped anyway.
Yesterday evening, if you recall, Alphabet (GOOG -6.67%) (GOOGL -6.90%) stock reported its Q2 earnings -- sales up 24% year over year, and earnings up even more. Unfortunately for Alphabet investors, their company then proceeded to point out that AI is fueling its profits, and that for this reason, Alphabet is spending even more money on capital investment in its AI business.
Image source: Getty Images.
Alphabet splashes out the big bucks How much more, you ask?
Well, about $15 billion more than Alphabet had previously planned to spend -- between $195 billion and $205 billion this year alone.
Alphabet investors didn't like that news at all and sold off Alphabet stock by more than 6% today. Micron, investors, however, are having the opposite reaction -- and for good reason. After all, what do you think Alphabet is spending all these billions of dollars on?
That's right: They're spending the money to buy AI chips, and they're spending even more money to buy memory chips -- high bandwidth memory and flash memory -- to help those AI chips answer AI user questions.
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What this means for Micron stock And this, in a nutshell, is why what sounds like bad news for Alphabet stock today is clearly good news for Micron. One of the flushest companies on the planet, with $242 billion in the bank and $185 billion in trailing free cash flow, is turning on the spigots and directing its cash flows in Micron's direction.
And that makes today a great day to own Micron stock.
Rich Smith has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet and Micron Technology. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Micron Technology Inc. MU and SK Hynix shares rose in trading on Thursday after Alphabet increased its capital expenditure guidance for 2026, easing investor concerns that spending on artificial intelligence infrastructure could slow.
Micron shares gained 3.3% in the session, while SK Hynix's American Depositary Receipts advanced 6.2%.
The rally followed Alphabet's quarterly earnings, during which the Google parent raised its expected 2026 capital expenditure range to between $195 billion and $205 billion, above its previous guidance of $180 billion to $190 billion.
The revised outlook also topped analysts' expectations of about $188 billion, according to Visible Alpha.
Alphabet's updated spending guidance provided reassurance for investors who had become concerned that demand for AI hardware, including memory chips, could soften after months of heavy investment by large technology companies.
During the company's earnings call, Chief Financial Officer Anat Ashkenazi said Alphabet now expects to spend between $195 billion and $205 billion in capital expenditures during 2026.
"The increase in the range is primarily due to an acceleration in the delivery of capacity to meet growing demand," Ashkenazi said.
She also reaffirmed the company's commitment to expanding AI infrastructure.
"We're still in a supply-constrained environment," she said. "I think we've said this now for multiple quarters in a row, and we are seeing very strong demand both from external cloud customers as well as across the business."
Alphabet attributed the higher spending to continued expansion of data center capacity required to support growing AI workloads and cloud demand.
The announcement helped lift sentiment across memory chip makers after Micron shares had fallen nearly 9% over the past month, while SK Hynix's Seoul-listed shares had declined by almost a quarter over the same period.
Micron also received unexpected attention during Tesla's second-quarter earnings call after Chief Executive Elon Musk publicly thanked the company for supplying memory chips.
“I’d actually also like to thank Micron for giving us memory allocation,” Musk said before adding that memory pricing has become “pretty insane” as demand continues to surge.
Later in the call, Musk also acknowledged Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company and Samsung Electronics.
“I think things are going really well on the chip front. Yeah. Again, I’d like to thank TSMC and Samsung, and Micron for their support,” he said.
The comments highlighted the growing importance of advanced memory alongside AI processors as companies expand investments in artificial intelligence infrastructure.
Memory demand remains central to AI expansionTesla's remarks came as Musk discussed the company's plans to build Terafab, a semiconductor development facility intended to accelerate production of custom AI chips for projects including Optimus.
According to Musk, the facility would combine logic, memory, lithography mask development, packaging and testing in one location to shorten chip development cycles.
His comments underscored that access to advanced memory has become a critical requirement for AI systems, which require large amounts of high-speed memory to train and deploy increasingly sophisticated models.
Tesla stock, however, fell 13% on Thursday as adjusted earnings fell short of expectations.
For investors, Alphabet's increased capital spending plans and Tesla's comments reinforced expectations that demand for memory chips could remain strong as AI infrastructure investments continue across the technology industry.
Although most people only interact with artificial intelligence (AI) through generative AI tools like ChatGPT, there are tons of working parts behind the scenes that make it happen.
In the earlier stages of the current AI mania we're experiencing, attention was on the companies making graphics processing units (GPUs) and AI accelerators. Then, attention went to companies building out data centers and other infrastructure. Now, it seems the focus has gotten a bit more niche, with memory chip makers among the hottest (and most volatile) stocks on the market.
Demand for memory hardware has shot up in the past couple of years, far outpacing supply. And while a few key companies are working to address it, it's not an issue that'll be fixed overnight.
Image source: Getty Images.
At the right place at the right time SK Hynix (SKHY +4.89%), Micron Technology (MU +3.28%), and Sandisk (SNDK +4.89%) are three of the key memory and storage hardware companies in the world, and they've found themselves in the right place at the right time.
As AI continues to scale, it requires much more memory and storage. Data centers are filled with countless pieces of this hardware, and as big tech companies spend trillions in the near future building them and other AI infrastructure, their need for it has only grown.
Of course, this supply shortage isn't ideal for data center operators. But for the memory companies making these products, the law of supply and demand has them bringing in cash like never before as they raise prices and flex their pricing power. Here's how much each company increased its revenue and net income in their latest quarters:
CompanyRevenue GrowthNet Income GrowthSK Hynix198%398%Micron346%1,223%SanDisk233%8,646%* Table by author. Growth is year over year. *Sandisk went from a $43 million loss to $3.675 billion in non-GAAP net income.
They're surely enjoying the cash, but they're also focused on addressing the supply problem. The short-term boost is cool; sustainability is much better. And with growing capital expenditure plans, it's clear they understand that as well.
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Each company has something good working in its favor SK Hynix only began trading on a U.S. stock exchange (the Nasdaq) on July 10, so it's closer to an initial public offering (IPO) stock, although it has been trading on the Korean Exchange since December 1996. The company is the market leader in high-bandwidth memory (HBM), which is working out in its favor, including inking a multiyear technology partnership with Nvidia that Nvidia says aligns with its "AI infrastructure roadmap."
Micron, up 174% this year (as of market close on July 20), is much smaller than SK Hynix in terms of market share, but it has been posting strong financial results. Its $18.3 billion in free cash flow in its most recent quarter (ended May 28) was up 165% year over year, and its gross margins increased by 10 percentage points from the previous quarter to 84.9%.
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After spinning off from Western Digital in February 2025 and becoming a stand-alone, pure-play storage company, SanDisk has been one of the best-performing stocks in all of the market. Its stock is up nearly 3,700% since the spin-off and 405% this year.
It operates on a smaller scale than the other two, but its financial results have been just as impressive. In the past year, its free cash flow has increased by 1,243% to $2.96 billion, and its non-GAAP gross margins went from 22.7% to 78.4%.
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Is now the time to invest in memory stocks? The memory hardware industry is booming right now, but it's also one of the more cyclical tech industries around. Once supply catches up to demand -- and it will catch up -- and companies can no longer command premium prices, the financial growth we see now will likely slow down, and you'll see some investors jumping ship.
There's a lot of speculation right now in memory stocks, which is a large part of why they've been so volatile. If you're more on the risk-averse side, I would avoid memory stocks right now because of the volatility. If you can stomach the volatility, then SK Hynix and Micron look much better priced than SanDisk from a value standpoint and are "safer" choices.
However, a better route for most people would be investing in an exchange-traded fund (ETF) that holds the companies. The Roundhill Memory ETF (DRAM +1.51%) is a good example, but it's much more of a supplemental piece than a portfolio staple.
Jimmy Chang, Chief Investment Officer at Rockefeller Global Family Office, used CNBC’s Closing Bell Overtime to deliver a pointed warning ahead of Big Tech earnings: the record AI CapEx cycle may already be masking an overbuild that markets have not yet learned to see. Chang argued that strong earnings are already priced in and the real risk lies in CapEx guidance tone, flagging Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT | MSFT Price Prediction) as the pivotal earnings report. “Any sign of caution could lead to a rotation of money out of some of these CapEx beneficiaries,” he said.
The numbers behind the concern are staggering. Microsoft told analysts on its most recent call that Q4 2026 CapEx will exceed $40 billion, with calendar-year spending pointed toward roughly $190 billion. CFO Amy Hood disclosed that roughly two-thirds of CapEx is for short-lived assets, primarily GPUs and CPUs. That mix is what worries Chang: the depreciation clock on AI silicon runs fast, and revenue conversion lags the spend.
Microsoft’s Q3 FY26 CapEx of $30.88 billion was up 84.39% year over year, funding an AI business now at a $37 billion annual run rate. Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOGL) has guided 2026 CapEx to $180 billion to $190 billion, with Q1 spend alone hitting $35.67 billion, up 107%. Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) plans roughly $200 billion in 2026 CapEx, a figure that has already crushed trailing free cash flow to $1.2 billion, a 95% drop.
The Moat Question Chang’s sharpest point targeted competitive dynamics. With SpaceX entering hyperscaler infrastructure and Meta reportedly weighing the same, he argued that “the moat is not that strong.” That view was echoed in retail forums. A Reddit thread titled “Nikkei Investigation Finds $1.65 Trillion In Off-Balance-Sheet Commitments Across Five Major Tech Companies” received 165 upvotes as sentiment around Alphabet turned bearish. Meanwhile, sentiment toward MSFT on r/investing swung from 82 (very bullish) to 30 (bearish) over four days, with the top thread arguing that “AI infrastructure depreciates way faster than people realise, and enterprise adoption is softening.”
The GPU and Memory Angle NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA) NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA) is the direct beneficiary. Q1 FY27 revenue reached $81.62 billion, accompanied by $119 billion in supply-related commitments. Jensen Huang called the AI buildout “the largest infrastructure expansion in human history.” Chang argued that investors should watch for “aggressive double, triple ordering” as an early warning that demand is being pulled forward.
Micron Technology (NASDAQ: MU) sits at the other end of the AI supply chain. Fiscal Q3 2026 revenue surged 345.72% year over year, with non-GAAP gross margin reaching 84.9%, according to Micron’s SEC filing. Chang’s co-panelist raised a subtler concern: chips fabricated in the United States could carry lower margins than those produced overseas, a structural headwind investors may not be pricing in given Micron’s 240.36% year-to-date gain. Shares trade at a forward P/E of 5, appearing inexpensive on paper, but that valuation depends on the company sustaining its guided 86% gross margin.
What to Watch Rockefeller’s CIO thinks that a more measured CapEx outlook from any single hyperscaler could trigger a rotation back into lagging stocks as expectations for free cash flow improve. Keep an eye on fiscal-year CapEx guidance, not the headline earnings beats.
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Investors are piling into the Roundhill Memory ETF (DRAM) as top stocks in the industry bounce back. DRAM jumped to $59.23, up by 20% from its lowest level this month.
The Roundhill Memory ETF jumped as top companies in the memory sector bounced back. In South Korea, Samsung Electronics stock rose by over 12% from its lowest point this month. SK Hynix rose to 1,919,000, up by 14% from its lowest point this month.
Other top companies in the industry have bounced back. This includes popular companies like Micron, SanDisk, Kioxia, and Seagate Technologies.
The ongoing rally is happening as companies start buying the dip, with many analysts remaining bullish on the sector. In a recent note, analysts at UBS said:
“Demand for compute continues to exceed available supply, while capacity constraints along the supply chain are unlikely to ease quickly.”
The analysts added that they were not seeing any panic in the semiconductor and memory industries, with hyperscalers continuing their spending spree.
This view was confirmed last night when Alphabet published its financial results, noting that it would boost its capital expenditure this year to $205 billion. Most of these funds will go towards its data center spending.
Most analysts have maintained a bullish outlook for some of the biggest memory companies. For example, the average target for Micron stock among analysts is $1,268, up sharply from the current $960. The most optimistic analysts are from DA Davidson, Susquehanna, and Barclays, who have a target of $2,000.
All Wall Street analysts tracking SanDisk have a bullish rating on the company, with the average target being at $1,820, up moderately from the current $1,600. Susquehanna’s Mehdi Hosseini expects it to jump to $3,250.
These metrics explain why investors are buying the DRAM ETF. ETF Db data shows that the fund has had over $10 billion in inflows in the last month. Its three-month inflows jumped to nearly $24 billion, bringing its assets under management to $23 billion.
DRAM ETF inflows Key earnings ahead as risks remainThe next few weeks will be important for the DRAM ETF as some of its top constituents and clients publish their earnings. Alphabet has already published its numbers, while other big-tech companies like Amazon, Meta Platforms, Apple, and Microsoft will release their numbers next week. These results will provide further clues about whether they are boosting their spending.
Micron and Samsung Electronics have already announced their reports, with their revenues soaring by triple digits. Seagate Technology and SK Hynix will release their earnings on July 28 and 29, respectively.
Japan’s Kioxia will release the numbers on July 31st, while SanDisk will publish its numbers on August 5. Other constituent companies include Western Digital, GigaDevice, and Nanya Technology, which will also release their numbers soon.
Still, the DRAM ETF faces three major risks as we have written before. The biggest one is its substantial concentration, with three of the biggest companies accounting for over 70% of the fund.
Another risk is that the memory industry is highly cyclical, as we saw in 2023. Periods of high demand lead to increased production, which in turn drives prices lower. In 2023, most companies saw a significant decline in revenue.
Further, there is a risk that some of the top hyperscalers will start reducing their spending in the coming months or years, which will hit demand.
There is also a risk that the ongoing DRAM ETF rebound is a dead-cat bounce, a situation where a falling asset rebounds a bit and then resumes the downtrend.
84.6%. That is Micron’s GAAP gross margin in fiscal Q3 2026, up from 37.7% in the same quarter a year ago. The figure was reported when Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU | MU Price Prediction) filed its Q3 FY26 results on June 24, 2026. Memory chip companies are supposed to live and die by cycles. A gross margin near 85% is what software businesses print. That is the reveal.
What It Means Gross margin is the cleanest read on pricing power a manufacturer can offer, and Micron’s just went vertical. The sequential progression tells the whole story: 44.7% in Q4 FY25, 56.0% in Q1 FY26, 74.4% in Q2 FY26, and 84.6% in Q3 FY26. That is a company that has repriced its book of business around AI memory scarcity, well beyond a normal upcycle.
The revenue base carrying those margins is real. Q3 FY26 revenue landed at $41.46 billion, beating the $35.25 billion consensus by 17.60% and rising 345.7% year over year from $9.30 billion. Non-GAAP diluted EPS came in at $25.11, ahead of the $20.28 consensus. Operating income of $33.32 billion grew 1,436.1% year over year, roughly four times faster than revenue. That is the fingerprint of operating leverage that only shows up when fixed costs get overwhelmed by pricing.
Where is it coming from? Cloud Memory revenue hit $13.77 billion, Core Data Center $11.52 billion, Mobile and Client $11.52 billion, and Automotive and Embedded $4.63 billion. HBM4, Micron’s high-bandwidth memory product for AI accelerators, is in high-volume shipments to a lead customer, with HBM4E targeting volume production in calendar 2027. Free cash flow reached $18.30 billion in the quarter alone, up 995.4% year over year.
Market Reaction MU closed the most recent trading session at $970.82 on July 21, 2026, up 12.17% on the day from $865.46. Year to date, the stock is up 240.36%, from $285.23 on December 31, 2025. Over the past year, shares are up 758.78% from $113.05. The one-month picture is more muted, with the stock down 14.38% from $1,133.82 on June 18, 2026, a sign that the rally has taken some heat off recently even as the fundamentals keep accelerating.
Bull Case Jim Cramer has been vocal on Micron for years, and the Q3 numbers give that stance a firm footing. Three points anchor the case.
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First, the margin story is set to keep climbing. Q4 guidance points to revenue of $50.0 billion plus or minus $1.0 billion, non-GAAP EPS of $31.00 plus or minus $1.00, and gross margin near 86%. That is guidance, not reported, but it lines up with the direction of travel.
Second, the durability profile is changing. CEO Sanjay Mehrotra told investors that “Micron’s record fiscal Q3 financial results and even stronger outlook for Q4 reflect the strategic value of memory in the AI era” and that “multi-year Strategic Customer Agreements will significantly enhance the durability and predictability of Micron’s strong financial performance”. Long-dated contracts against a historically cyclical product line take some of the whip out of the tail.
Third, capital return is showing up alongside the growth. The company paid a $0.15 quarterly dividend on July 21, 2026 and repurchased $650 million of stock in the nine months ended May 28, 2026. For retirement-focused holders, that combination of cash return and reinvestment (Q3 capex ran $7.83 billion, up 166.37% year over year) is what a durable compounding story looks like.
Retail is not universally on board. The most persistent bearish Reddit post over the last month, “Micron will peak and leave all you retail with heavy bags,” has climbed from 305 to 400 upvotes on r/investing. Skepticism at a $1 trillion-plus market cap is healthy. The counterweight is that the reported numbers, not sentiment, are what will price this stock.
Bottom Line An 84.6% gross margin is what happens when a supply-constrained producer meets AI-scale demand. Micron’s market cap has scaled with the results, and Q4 guidance points higher on every line that matters. The next catalyst is the fiscal Q4 FY26 earnings report, where management has set the bar at $50 billion in revenue and $31.00 in non-GAAP EPS. Cramer’s conviction has one number to lean on. It happens to be the loudest number in the memory business.
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The brief acknowledgment wasn’t about courtesy. Instead, it offered a glimpse into what could become one of Tesla’s biggest challenges as it ramps up its AI ambitions: securing enough advanced memory to power the next generation of AI infrastructure.
An Unexpected Thank-YouWhile discussing Tesla’s plans to develop custom AI chips, Musk unexpectedly singled out Micron.
“I’d actually also like to thank Micron for giving us memory allocation,” Musk said before adding that memory pricing has become “pretty insane” as demand continues to surge.
Public companies rarely use earnings calls to thank suppliers by name, making the comment stand out amid broader discussions about Tesla’s AI roadmap. The comment stood out not just because Tesla CEOs rarely single out suppliers during earnings calls, but because it highlighted an increasingly important part of the AI supply chain: memory.
TSM Got A Shout Out, Too“I think things are going really well on the chip front. Yeah. Again, I’d like to thank TSMC and Samsung, and Micron for their support,” he said. The second acknowledgment reinforced Tesla’s growing reliance on leading chip suppliers. But it was Micron’s earlier, standalone mention that may have been the more revealing clue for investors.
Tesla’s AI Ambitions Depend On More Than ChipsMusk’s comments came as he outlined Tesla’s plans for Terafab, a proposed semiconductor development facility designed to accelerate the creation of custom AI chips for Optimus.
According to Musk, Tesla wants to bring together logic, memory, lithography mask development, packaging and testing under one roof to dramatically shorten chip development cycles. He even suggested he does not believe “such a building exists anywhere on Earth.”
That vision, however, depends on access to advanced memory.
Unlike conventional computing workloads, AI systems require enormous amounts of high-speed memory to train and run increasingly sophisticated models. Musk’s acknowledgment suggests Tesla is feeling the same supply constraints that have affected much of the AI industry over the past two years.
Why Investors Should Pay AttentionFor investors, Micron’s mention may have been one of the most revealing moments of Tesla’s earnings call.
Rather than focusing solely on vehicles or even AI processors, Musk drew attention to another piece of the AI hardware ecosystem that is becoming increasingly difficult to secure.
As Tesla pushes deeper into robotics, autonomous driving and custom AI silicon, the company’s competitive advantage may depend not only on designing better chips but also on securing the memory needed to run them. Musk’s brief thank-you to Micron served as a reminder that in the AI race, the next bottleneck may not be the processor itself—it could be the memory sitting beside it.
Image via Shutterstock
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Micron Technology (MU -1.05%) has been one of the biggest artificial intelligence (AI) winners in recent times -- from an earnings and stock performance perspective. The company has seen revenue skyrocket amid demand for its memory solutions, and the stock has advanced 1,300% over the past three years. In the first half of this year, it climbed 300% and now trades at more than $900.
My prediction is Micron will reach $1,400 as early as next year -- here's the math.
Image source: Micron Technology.
A double-digit gain If Micron climbs to $1,400, from today's level, that represents a gain of 44%, which isn't unusual for this stock. That also would put Micron at $1.5 trillion in market value. Using analysts' average revenue estimate for the current year of $129 billion, Micron would trade at a price-to-sales ratio of about 12. This is completely in line with the company's current P/S ratio.
MU PS Ratio data by YCharts
So, the math works out, supporting the idea that Micron could reach this level. Importantly, the company's product offerings, earnings performance so far, and prospects are also pushing the stock in this direction. Micron is a leader in the memory and storage space, and these are key needs of AI customers. AI requires compute for calculations, but this goes hand in hand with memory and storage -- and as agentic AI is increasingly put to use, demand for Micron's products could see further growth. Agentic AI involves applying AI to real-world problems, with the AI taking a series of actions. This is seen as the next growth area in the AI market.
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High levels of profitability All of this has helped revenue take off in recent quarters, and the latest period offers us a great example. Revenue soared 345% to more than $41 billion, and this was accomplished at a high level of profitability on sales. Micron reported gross margin that exceeded 84% -- even topping chip giant Nvidia, which has steadily generated gross margins of more than 70%.
The current memory chip shortage, which Micron expects to continue past 2027, has pushed customers to rush to memory providers such as Micron to get their orders in -- and Micron has even established strategic customer agreements (SCAs) that offer great visibility on revenue to come. The company has completed 16 SCAs, with firm commitments for purchases over a period of years. Current SCAs will bring in $22 billion in financial commitments, according to Micron, and this may be just the beginning as the company aims to make these deals a central part of its business.
All of this supports my prediction that Micron stock will maintain its momentum and reach $1,400 by next year.
The hottest artificial intelligence (AI) stocks this year are not names like Nvidia and Palantir Technologies, which have put on a clinic in recent years and generated phenomenal returns for shareholders. This year, parts of the AI supply chain have come into focus, propping up lesser-known companies and even some legacy tech names that had been overlooked until recently.
Two of those companies are Micron Technology (MU -1.05%) and Sandisk (SNDK +0.69%), which are up 240% and 570%, respectively, this year (as of July 22). Can the rally last through 2027?
Image source: Getty Images.
Why Micron and Sandisk are booming Micron and Sandisk both make different types of memory, which feed the graphics processing units (GPUs) data that makes AI reasoning possible.
Sandisk is focused on NAND flash memory, which is essentially longer-term, cheaper storage that maintains data even when an operating system's power is turned off. In AI, NAND is used to store massive data sets and AI models that can be quickly transferred to GPUs when they begin a task.
Micron makes NAND flash memory, too, but it also makes dynamic random-access memory (DRAM). This type of memory is more expensive and loses data when the operating system's power turns off. But it is also the key to making AI possible. DRAM delivers data to GPUs incredibly quickly, enabling AI models to process, respond, and provide solutions in real time.
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Companies like Micron have been able to stack DRAM die vertically to create high-bandwidth memory (HBM), which makes AI workloads even faster by providing greater bandwidth.
Naturally, as GPU clusters and data centers have scaled, demand for NAND, DRAM, and HBM has surged, driving higher prices and, in turn, higher revenue and earnings for companies like Micron and Sandisk.
The interesting thing about memory stocks is that they have historically been quite cyclical.
That's because there is typically a timing imbalance between supply and demand. What often happens is that by the time memory companies catch up to demand, demand has fallen, and they overshoot, leading to a supply glut.
But the AI supercycle is unlike anything investors have ever seen, and most analysts expect it to be a while before supply catches up with demand.
On the company's most recent earnings call, Micron CEO Sanjay Mehrotra said he expects high demand to continue past 2027, due to AI demand and "structural supply constraints."
Furthermore, Micron announced 16 strategic customer agreements (SCAs), many of which are long-term, running from this year through 2030. These deals include fixed pricing, price floors, and ceilings. This is atypical for memory companies and does suggest a potentially new dynamic for these cyclical companies.
Ethan Tan, a memory consultant, is forecasting price hikes in the 40% to 45% range next year, and consumers are already feeling the impact. Apple recently announced higher prices for many of its core products due to high memory costs.
In May, Sandisk CEO David Goeckeler said he expects a supply shortage for memory "for a long period of time." He also said he wants to reduce the company's cyclicality, if possible.
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"Or at least when the cyclicality comes, have different techniques to deal with it than we have in the past," he told investors at the time.
Now, it's always dangerous for investors to think this time is different because history has a nasty way of catching up with investors, even if it doesn't always repeat itself exactly.
Investors should also remember that the market pulls growth forward, so Micron and Sandisk's prices likely reflect, at least to some extent, the massive demand expected for memory this year and in 2027.
Both companies should continue to deliver strong results in 2027, but the slightest hint that supply is catching up to demand could trigger a big sell-off in these stocks. I don't know if or when it will happen, but it's something investors should be on high alert for.
Famed technology investor Gavin Baker just made the case that cheaper AI models could be the biggest gift possible to the picks-and-shovels crowd. In a post on X, Baker argued that if market share shifts from frontier labs with 90%-plus inference margins toward cheaper open-source models, “margin dollars would effectively get redistributed from the frontier labs to AI infrastructure providers.”
That would put the benefit squarely in the lane of NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA | NVDA Price Prediction), Micron Technology (NASDAQ: MU), and SanDisk (NASDAQ: SNDK), the companies selling the chips, memory, and storage behind the AI buildout. Hyperscalers like Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) and Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) could also benefit if cheaper intelligence lowers the cost of serving customers and expands demand.
NVIDIA is up 13.71% year to date to $212.77. A path to $300 in 2027 hinges on the bull case laid out below.
Wall Street Is Already Bullish, but the Bar Can Go Higher NVIDIA just posted $81.61 billion in Q1 FY2027 revenue, up 85.2% year over year, with Data Center revenue climbing 92% YoY. Non-GAAP EPS of $1.87 topped estimates, extending the company’s earnings beat streak to five straight quarters. Management guided Q2 revenue to $91.0 billion and disclosed $119 billion in supply commitments, pointing to demand visibility and a supply chain buildout unlike anything in company history.
Baker’s Thesis: Cheap Tokens = More GPUs and Memory Baker’s key point is that cheaper models drive incremental token demand. As inference costs collapse (the cost of inference has dropped a thousand-fold in three years), volume explodes. That volume runs on NVIDIA silicon paired with High Bandwidth Memory.
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Micron’s Cloud Memory segment hit $13.77 billion in Q3 FY2026 revenue with gross margins of 84.6%. SanDisk’s Datacenter segment exploded 645% year over year to $1.47 billion. Hyperscaler capex validates the demand: Amazon is planning roughly $200 billion in 2026 capex, and Microsoft’s Q3 FY26 capex hit $30.88 billion, up 84%.
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang’s point lands in the same place as Baker’s: “Agentic AI has arrived, doing productive work, generating real value and scaling rapidly across companies and industries.”
The Math on $300 At $212.77, NVIDIA trades around 41x trailing earnings. FY2026 non-GAAP EPS came in at $4.77, and current momentum, with revenue growth above 70% for consecutive quarters, gives Wall Street room to keep raising forward estimates. Shares hitting $300 would require roughly 41% upside from here. Historically, NVDA has cleared that hurdle many times in prior cycles.
The Bottom Line on $300 Baker’s framework flips the “cheap AI kills the bull case” fear on its head. If open source wins, infrastructure providers capture the margin. With a 100% beat rate over five quarters, a next earnings date of August 26, 2026, and hyperscaler capex still accelerating, $300 in 2027 remains ambitious, but the blueprint is there.
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Memory stocks have gone vertical. Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU | MU Price Prediction) is up 239.2% year to date, and SanDisk (NASDAQ:SNDK) has climbed 576.9% over the same stretch, with the Kurv SK Hynix Enhanced Income ETF (CBOE:SKH) offering U.S. investors a wrapper on the Korean memory giant behind the rally. If you watched from the sidelines, the question is fair: did you miss it?
The setup has evolved, though opportunity remains. The easy money got made. The smart money is still figuring out where the next leg comes from. Here is the case, run through three lenses.
Valuation: Cheaper Than It Looks Micron closed Monday at $970.82 and trades at a trailing P/E of 21.94 and a forward P/E of just 6.26, reflecting fiscal Q4 2026 guidance of $31.00 in non-GAAP EPS, give or take a dollar, on $50.0 billion in revenue. Wall Street’s average price target sits at $1,491.95, with 40 buy or strong-buy ratings against 4 holds.
SanDisk is the pricier ticket. Shares at $1,589.40 trade at a trailing P/E of 54.3 and a forward P/E of 24.75, with an analyst target of $2,144.14. Neither multiple screams bubble given fiscal Q3 YoY revenue growth of 345.7% at Micron and 251% at SanDisk.
Forward Catalyst: The Deutsche Bank Shortfall The reason to still care is a supply problem that gets worse before it gets better. Deutsche Bank projects 2026 DRAM demand of 2,261k WSPM against capacity of 2,051k WSPM, roughly a 10% shortfall. By 2028, demand climbs to 3,563k WSPM while capacity reaches only 2,769k, a 29% gap. Deutsche sees the imbalance narrowing to 18% in 2029 and 11% in 2030, meaning shortage conditions persist for another four years.
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That is the setup memory bulls are pricing. Micron’s HBM4 is in high-volume shipments for its lead AI accelerator customer, and CEO Sanjay Mehrotra pointed to “multi-year Strategic Customer Agreements” that lock in pricing durability. SanDisk has signed five NBM agreements with hyperscalers, driving datacenter revenue up 645% YoY. SK Hynix, accessible through the Kurv ETF at a 0.99% expense ratio, remains the HBM market leader.
Risk and Entry: The Pullback Is Already Here Retirement-focused readers should note the tape has already cooled. Micron is down 7.7% over the past month, and SanDisk has given back 16.4%, as of July 22. Reddit’s r/investing has a top-engagement post titled “Micron will peak and leave all you retail with heavy bags”, and the beta on Micron sits at 2.142. Concentration risk is real: Micron discloses HBM4 revenue concentration on a lead customer, and SanDisk depends on Kioxia for Flash Ventures manufacturing.
Still, the fundamentals justify current prices. Micron’s Q3 GAAP gross margin hit 84.6% versus 37.7% a year earlier, and free cash flow reached $18.30 billion. SanDisk retired its long-term debt and generated $2.99 billion in free cash flow in a single quarter.
The Verdict The runway remains open. The Deutsche Bank supply gap widens through 2028, forward earnings multiples of 5 at Micron and 22 at SanDisk sit well below the growth rates supporting them, and the recent pullback has cleared some froth. For retirement-focused portfolios, Micron offers the lower-multiple entry point, SanDisk carries higher-growth but pricier exposure, and SKH provides a wrapper on SK Hynix at a modest fee.
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As of the morning of July 21, Micron Technology (MU -0.50%) is still stuck in its own bear market; its stock is trading more than 20% below its all-time high of $1,255. At one point in recent days, the stock was off by just over 30%.
Before shares dipped below $1,000 this month, some investors were wondering if a stock split might be on the table for 2026. Fast-forward to today, and there's reason to think such an event might be off the table for the foreseeable future.
Image source: Getty Images.
Avoiding mixing more volatility into investing Aside from a desire to avoid the fees associated with a stock split, Micron management may want to skip one so as not to create additional volatility. One Bank of America study working with four decades of data found that, on average, in the 12 months following a company's announcement of a stock split, that stock rises by 25.4% -- more than twice the average annual return of the S&P 500 (^GSPC +0.00%) during the time periods studied.
Given that scenario, there may be traders who plan to buy stocks following split announcements with the intention of holding them only temporarily. When such traders sell later to book their short-term profits, that can weigh on a stock's price. And since Micron's management team is supposed to look out for long-term shareholders, it may want to delay a stock split as long as possible.
With the price down so sharply from its peak, a split announcement would likely just create more volatility. Also, the stock's retreat back below $1,000 eases some of the worry that retail investors may have been priced out of owning shares.
Ultimately, though, what's more important for investors to focus on is a company's long-term growth prospects.
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What's next for Micron? Watching the price of a stock you own fall by nearly 30% is jarring, especially for an investor who may have bought in near the peak. The good news is that Micron's outlook for the next few years still looks bright, and this period could prove to be just a short-term panic during which the stock is oversold.
The demand for memory and storage solutions created by the build-out of artificial intelligence (AI) data centers is expected to exceed supply for some time, but even when production capacity does eventually catch up, Micron has been planning ahead for that day.
In its fiscal 2026 third-quarter report, Micron announced that it had signed 16 strategic customer agreements (SCAs) that could "fundamentally transform" its business model. Of those 16 SCAs, 14 have a minimum cumulative revenue of around $100 billion.
Bank of America is an advertising partner of Motley Fool Money. Jack Delaney has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Micron Technology. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Chips took a beating in July, and if you sold in a panic, take a breath. On a CNBC segment earlier this week, Wells Fargo chief equity strategist Ohsung Kwon and Strategy Asset Managers CEO Tom Hulick both argued the semiconductor pullback is a positioning reset ahead of what could be the largest capital spending wave in computing history. Their case rests on a single, staggering number Wells Fargo just published, and it points directly at the tickers retail keeps dumping.
The $1.1 Trillion Reason Kwon’s team raised its capex estimate for the big four hyperscalers to $1.1 trillion in 2027, roughly 25% above consensus and a jump from about $800 billion this year. In Kwon’s words, “Our analysts actually raised their 2027 capex estimates to 1.1 trillion from just the big four companies. And that’s about this year is about 800 billion. So that’s actually about 25% above where consensus is. So if that actually comes to fruition, then I think we’re talking about a huge upside for semis overall.”
The commitments are already visible in filings. NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA | NVDA Price Prediction) sits on $119 billion in total supply-related commitments and guided fiscal Q2 revenue to $91 billion. Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU) guided fiscal Q4 revenue to $50 billion, plus or minus $1 billion. Those are demand signals backed by binding commitments.
Why the Selloff Was a Positioning Reset Kwon’s second point matters more. “I think positioning has reset. I think there is a bull case heading into the earnings season. And I think hyperscaler capex the trend is going higher. So I think this earnings season will be another catalyst that the capex cycle is still very healthy.” Fast money exited in July, forward valuations look reasonable again, and Q2 earnings could re-anchor the group.
NVIDIA is still up 13.3% year to date. Forward P/E sits at 23x. Micron trades at a forward multiple of roughly 5x with an analyst target of $1,491.95. July is tracking as one of the biggest momentum-reversal months in history, with a -55% correlation between first-half and July performance. Traders got flushed. The infrastructure kept building.
Where the Money Is Going, With Memory in Focus Per Hulick’s, “as the hyperscalers continue to invest… the forward looking potential for the memory sector in particular is going to be quite strong because memory is becoming one of the most attractive areas in the technology stack right now.”
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He is describing what Micron’s fiscal Q3 already proved. Revenue landed at $41.46 billion, up 345.7% year over year, with Cloud Memory contributing $13.77 billion and HBM4 in high-volume shipments.
SanDisk (NASDAQ:SNDK) tells a similar story from the NAND side. Fiscal Q3 revenue hit $5.95 billion, up 251% year over year, with the Datacenter segment posting $1.47 billion in revenue, up 645% year over year. Shares are down 27.25% over the past month, yet still up 569.56% year to date. That pullback after that run reads as violent digestion within an intact thesis. SanDisk is up 10% on repositioning into memory, and Hulick thinks that is the tell.
His bigger claim is worth reading twice. “This is going to be one of the greatest bull markets that I think that we will experience. And it’s just because of the technological evolution that we’re seeing with AI, memory expansion, the speed of chips, how things are connecting together.” Even Chinese open-source model development is viewed as a positive for compute demand, since more models mean more inference.
The Verdict, and the One Risk That Matters The bull case is coherent. Hyperscalers are committing real capital, memory pricing is inflecting, and NVIDIA’s data center franchise grew 92% year over year at 75.0% non-GAAP gross margins. If you were scared out of chips in July, the strategists on your screen think the July action lied about the trajectory. The one risk worth respecting is monetization. If hyperscalers raise capex again without showing revenue acceleration and a clearer path to profitability on those AI workloads, the next reset will be fundamental, and Q2 earnings season is where that fight gets settled.
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Micron Technology (NASDAQ: MU | MU Price Prediction) and Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) have both reported earnings fueling the 2026 semiconductor rally, but their late-summer setups look nothing alike.
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Newly Public Memory-Chip Maker SK Hynix Soars Nearly 14%, Leads 18 To Today's Best Stock Lists
Super Micro Soars Late On Booming Margins, Orders; Dell, HP Enterprise Also Rally
Stock Market Rally Defies Rising Oil, Bond Yields; Chips Lead As Seagate, Micron Make Bullish Moves Micron Technology (MU) stock showed some positive signs on Tuesday, closing 12.17% higher on the day and breaking above its 50-day moving average. It's holding those gains so far, despite a market pullback. Shares of the memory chips and storage maker have been under pressure for the last month. But they seem to have found support at the 800 level.…
SummaryMicron Technology, Inc. remains a volatile but fundamentally strong AI-driven memory leader, with persistent HBM shortages driving its recent surge.Despite recent corrections, MU’s risk-reward profile is now more attractive, supported by robust demand and favorable technicals above EMA50.Valuation remains reasonable: non-GAAP P/E at 13.2x (17% below sector median), with forward EV/Sales elevated.Hyperscaler capex trends are the key forward risk, and I think any pullback from major customers could materially impact MU’s demand outlook.I hereon share my sentiment on MU stock and why I think the risk-reward is favorable at current levels. eugenesergeev/iStock via Getty Images
Past coverage, and where I went wrong: Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) has been on thin ice lately. The conversation around the AI trade, and rather the sustainability of it, has become a central focal point for investors
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Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.
Acumen Wealth Advisors LLC increased its stake in Micron Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ:MU – Free Report) by 456.4% in the 1st quarter, according to the company in its most recent disclosure with the SEC. The institutional investor owned 3,333 shares of the semiconductor manufacturer’s stock after purchasing an additional 2,734 shares during the quarter. Acumen Wealth Advisors LLC’s holdings in Micron Technology were worth $1,127,000 at the end of the most recent quarter.
A number of other institutional investors have also added to or reduced their stakes in the stock. Heritage Trust Co lifted its stake in Micron Technology by 9.7% during the fourth quarter. Heritage Trust Co now owns 15,026 shares of the semiconductor manufacturer’s stock worth $4,289,000 after purchasing an additional 1,323 shares during the last quarter. Financial Synergies Wealth Advisors Inc. bought a new stake in Micron Technology in the 4th quarter worth approximately $1,316,000. PKO BP BANKOWY Universal Pension Society JSC purchased a new stake in Micron Technology in the fourth quarter worth approximately $61,306,000. Dara Capital US Inc. bought a new position in Micron Technology during the fourth quarter valued at approximately $2,926,000. Finally, Meiji Yasuda Asset Management Co Ltd. raised its stake in shares of Micron Technology by 231.7% during the fourth quarter. Meiji Yasuda Asset Management Co Ltd. now owns 23,192 shares of the semiconductor manufacturer’s stock worth $6,619,000 after acquiring an additional 16,200 shares in the last quarter. Hedge funds and other institutional investors own 80.84% of the company’s stock.
Micron Technology Price Performance Shares of Micron Technology stock opened at $970.82 on Wednesday. The company’s fifty day simple moving average is $954.95 and its two-hundred day simple moving average is $610.96. Micron Technology, Inc. has a 12-month low of $103.38 and a 12-month high of $1,255.00. The firm has a market cap of $1.10 trillion, a PE ratio of 21.98 and a beta of 2.14. The company has a quick ratio of 2.98, a current ratio of 3.42 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.05.
Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU – Get Free Report) last issued its quarterly earnings data on Wednesday, June 24th. The semiconductor manufacturer reported $25.11 EPS for the quarter, beating the consensus estimate of $21.39 by $3.72. Micron Technology had a net margin of 55.91% and a return on equity of 71.13%. The firm had revenue of $41.46 billion during the quarter, compared to the consensus estimate of $35.91 billion. During the same period in the prior year, the firm posted $1.91 earnings per share. The company’s quarterly revenue was up 345.8% compared to the same quarter last year. Micron Technology has set its Q4 2026 guidance at 30.000-32.000 EPS. As a group, equities analysts expect that Micron Technology, Inc. will post 72.93 EPS for the current year.
Micron Technology Announces Dividend The firm also recently disclosed a quarterly dividend, which was paid on Tuesday, July 21st. Stockholders of record on Monday, July 6th were given a $0.15 dividend. This represents a $0.60 dividend on an annualized basis and a dividend yield of 0.1%. The ex-dividend date was Monday, July 6th. Micron Technology’s dividend payout ratio (DPR) is currently 1.36%.
Insiders Place Their Bets In related news, Director Lynn A. Dugle sold 1,300 shares of Micron Technology stock in a transaction on Tuesday, June 30th. The shares were sold at an average price of $1,150.43, for a total value of $1,495,559.00. Following the sale, the director owned 17,728 shares in the company, valued at $20,394,823.04. The trade was a 6.83% decrease in their ownership of the stock. The transaction was disclosed in a legal filing with the SEC, which is available at this link. Also, EVP April S. Arnzen sold 40,000 shares of the business’s stock in a transaction on Wednesday, July 1st. The shares were sold at an average price of $1,083.94, for a total transaction of $43,357,600.00. Following the transaction, the executive vice president directly owned 85,737 shares in the company, valued at approximately $92,933,763.78. The trade was a 31.81% decrease in their ownership of the stock. The SEC filing for this sale provides additional information. Insiders sold a total of 163,300 shares of company stock valued at $152,667,204 over the last three months. 0.24% of the stock is currently owned by corporate insiders.
Key Stories Impacting Micron Technology Here are the key news stories impacting Micron Technology this week:
Positive Sentiment: Micron is benefiting from a broad rebound in memory stocks, with SanDisk, SK Hynix, and Western Digital also bouncing as investors bet the recent slump was overdone. MU, SNDK, SKHY: Memory Stocks Rip Higher as Key Names Lead a Buy-the-Dip Comeback Positive Sentiment: Bank of America’s bullish take that low-cost AI models could increase memory demand helped revive sentiment around Micron and other chip stocks. Micron stock jumps 12%: what is driving the memory stock today Positive Sentiment: Multiple notes highlighted that the recent memory-stock selloff may have created an attractive entry point, with analysts saying data-center shortages and AI spending should keep demand firm. Why Micron and other chip stocks are bouncing back so strongly Positive Sentiment: Wall Street commentary remained constructive, with reports that Micron was added to “best investment ideas” lists and that analysts still see strong profitability from the AI memory cycle. NVIDIA Isn’t Leading AI Stocks in 2026 – These 2 Are Up Over 180% Neutral Sentiment: Some coverage also noted that traders are watching upcoming Big Tech earnings for clues on AI infrastructure spending, which could either extend the rally or cool it off. Micron and SK Hynix Stocks Jump. Watch for This Memory-Related Catalyst. Negative Sentiment: A few articles warned that valuations may already reflect a lot of the AI boom, and that customers could eventually push back against soaring memory costs, creating a risk of more volatility. Micron and SK Hynix Stocks Jump. Watch for This Memory-Related Catalyst. Analyst Upgrades and Downgrades MU has been the subject of a number of recent research reports. Cantor Fitzgerald restated an “overweight” rating and issued a $1,500.00 price objective on shares of Micron Technology in a report on Thursday, June 25th. UBS Group boosted their price target on shares of Micron Technology from $535.00 to $1,625.00 and gave the stock a “buy” rating in a research note on Tuesday, May 26th. Rosenblatt Securities upped their price target on shares of Micron Technology from $1,200.00 to $1,500.00 and gave the company a “buy” rating in a research report on Thursday, June 25th. KeyCorp reaffirmed an “overweight” rating on shares of Micron Technology in a research note on Monday. Finally, DA Davidson boosted their target price on Micron Technology from $1,500.00 to $2,000.00 and gave the company a “buy” rating in a research note on Thursday, June 25th. Four analysts have rated the stock with a Strong Buy rating, thirty have given a Buy rating and three have assigned a Hold rating to the company’s stock. Based on data from MarketBeat, Micron Technology currently has an average rating of “Buy” and a consensus price target of $1,268.93.
View Our Latest Analysis on Micron Technology
About Micron Technology (Free Report)
Micron Technology, Inc is a global semiconductor company that designs and manufactures memory and storage solutions. Its product portfolio includes dynamic random-access memory (DRAM), NAND flash memory, solid-state drives (SSDs), memory modules and embedded memory solutions for a wide range of computing and electronic devices. Micron supplies components used in data centers, enterprise and cloud infrastructure, client computing, mobile devices, automotive systems and industrial applications, and also markets consumer-facing products under the Crucial brand.
Founded in 1978 and headquartered in Boise, Idaho, Micron has grown into an international manufacturer with research, development and production facilities across multiple regions.
Read More Five stocks we like better than Micron Technology Confidence Is Back, But Earnings Show the Consumer Is Being Picky AeroVironment’s Stock Is Down, But Drone Demand Is Taking Off 3M’s Redemption Arc: Can Q2 Earnings Change the Narrative? 3 Photonics Companies Making Quantum Tech Possible Want to see what other hedge funds are holding MU? Visit HoldingsChannel.com to get the latest 13F filings and insider trades for Micron Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ:MU – Free Report).
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Arvest Bank Trust Division cut its holdings in shares of Micron Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ:MU – Free Report) by 48.8% during the 1st quarter, according to its most recent Form 13F filing with the SEC. The institutional investor owned 43,135 shares of the semiconductor manufacturer’s stock after selling 41,176 shares during the quarter. Arvest Bank Trust Division’s holdings in Micron Technology were worth $14,573,000 at the end of the most recent quarter.
A number of other large investors also recently added to or reduced their stakes in the business. Petra Financial Advisors Inc. lifted its stake in Micron Technology by 4.3% in the first quarter. Petra Financial Advisors Inc. now owns 967 shares of the semiconductor manufacturer’s stock worth $327,000 after acquiring an additional 40 shares during the period. WealthCollab LLC lifted its position in shares of Micron Technology by 11.0% in the 1st quarter. WealthCollab LLC now owns 353 shares of the semiconductor manufacturer’s stock worth $119,000 after purchasing an additional 35 shares during the period. Acumen Wealth Advisors LLC lifted its position in shares of Micron Technology by 456.4% in the 1st quarter. Acumen Wealth Advisors LLC now owns 3,333 shares of the semiconductor manufacturer’s stock worth $1,127,000 after purchasing an additional 2,734 shares during the period. Marin Bay Wealth Advisors LLC bought a new stake in shares of Micron Technology during the 1st quarter valued at about $527,000. Finally, Saturna Capital Corp boosted its stake in shares of Micron Technology by 83.7% during the 1st quarter. Saturna Capital Corp now owns 1,778 shares of the semiconductor manufacturer’s stock valued at $601,000 after purchasing an additional 810 shares in the last quarter. Hedge funds and other institutional investors own 80.84% of the company’s stock.
Analysts Set New Price Targets MU has been the topic of several research reports. The Goldman Sachs Group lifted their price target on Micron Technology from $900.00 to $1,100.00 and gave the company a “neutral” rating in a research report on Thursday, June 25th. Morgan Stanley boosted their target price on shares of Micron Technology from $1,050.00 to $1,200.00 and gave the company an “overweight” rating in a report on Thursday, June 25th. DA Davidson upped their target price on shares of Micron Technology from $1,500.00 to $2,000.00 and gave the stock a “buy” rating in a research report on Thursday, June 25th. Bank of America increased their price target on shares of Micron Technology from $950.00 to $1,500.00 and gave the stock a “buy” rating in a research note on Tuesday, June 23rd. Finally, Erste Group Bank raised shares of Micron Technology from a “hold” rating to a “buy” rating in a research report on Thursday, June 25th. Four research analysts have rated the stock with a Strong Buy rating, thirty have given a Buy rating and three have issued a Hold rating to the company. Based on data from MarketBeat, the stock has an average rating of “Buy” and an average target price of $1,268.93.
View Our Latest Stock Report on Micron Technology
Insider Buying and Selling In related news, EVP April S. Arnzen sold 40,000 shares of the firm’s stock in a transaction on Wednesday, July 1st. The stock was sold at an average price of $1,083.94, for a total value of $43,357,600.00. Following the completion of the sale, the executive vice president directly owned 85,737 shares in the company, valued at $92,933,763.78. This trade represents a 31.81% decrease in their ownership of the stock. The sale was disclosed in a filing with the Securities & Exchange Commission, which is available through this hyperlink. Also, Director Steven J. Gomo sold 2,000 shares of Micron Technology stock in a transaction on Monday, May 11th. The stock was sold at an average price of $787.03, for a total transaction of $1,574,060.00. Following the transaction, the director directly owned 17,139 shares of the company’s stock, valued at $13,488,907.17. The trade was a 10.45% decrease in their ownership of the stock. Additional details regarding this sale are available in the official SEC disclosure. In the last quarter, insiders sold 163,300 shares of company stock worth $152,667,204. 0.24% of the stock is owned by company insiders.
Micron Technology Trading Up 12.2% Shares of MU stock opened at $970.82 on Wednesday. Micron Technology, Inc. has a 52-week low of $103.38 and a 52-week high of $1,255.00. The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.05, a quick ratio of 2.98 and a current ratio of 3.42. The firm has a market capitalization of $1.10 trillion, a PE ratio of 21.98 and a beta of 2.14. The stock has a fifty day simple moving average of $954.95 and a two-hundred day simple moving average of $610.96.
Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU – Get Free Report) last issued its earnings results on Wednesday, June 24th. The semiconductor manufacturer reported $25.11 earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter, beating the consensus estimate of $21.39 by $3.72. The company had revenue of $41.46 billion for the quarter, compared to the consensus estimate of $35.91 billion. Micron Technology had a return on equity of 71.13% and a net margin of 55.91%.The firm’s quarterly revenue was up 345.8% on a year-over-year basis. During the same quarter last year, the company earned $1.91 EPS. Micron Technology has set its Q4 2026 guidance at 30.000-32.000 EPS. On average, analysts predict that Micron Technology, Inc. will post 72.93 EPS for the current fiscal year.
Micron Technology Dividend Announcement The business also recently declared a quarterly dividend, which was paid on Tuesday, July 21st. Investors of record on Monday, July 6th were given a $0.15 dividend. The ex-dividend date was Monday, July 6th. This represents a $0.60 annualized dividend and a yield of 0.1%. Micron Technology’s dividend payout ratio (DPR) is currently 1.36%.
Key Headlines Impacting Micron Technology Here are the key news stories impacting Micron Technology this week:
Positive Sentiment: Micron is benefiting from a broad rebound in memory stocks, with SanDisk, SK Hynix, and Western Digital also bouncing as investors bet the recent slump was overdone. MU, SNDK, SKHY: Memory Stocks Rip Higher as Key Names Lead a Buy-the-Dip Comeback Positive Sentiment: Bank of America’s bullish take that low-cost AI models could increase memory demand helped revive sentiment around Micron and other chip stocks. Micron stock jumps 12%: what is driving the memory stock today Positive Sentiment: Multiple notes highlighted that the recent memory-stock selloff may have created an attractive entry point, with analysts saying data-center shortages and AI spending should keep demand firm. Why Micron and other chip stocks are bouncing back so strongly Positive Sentiment: Wall Street commentary remained constructive, with reports that Micron was added to “best investment ideas” lists and that analysts still see strong profitability from the AI memory cycle. NVIDIA Isn’t Leading AI Stocks in 2026 – These 2 Are Up Over 180% Neutral Sentiment: Some coverage also noted that traders are watching upcoming Big Tech earnings for clues on AI infrastructure spending, which could either extend the rally or cool it off. Micron and SK Hynix Stocks Jump. Watch for This Memory-Related Catalyst. Negative Sentiment: A few articles warned that valuations may already reflect a lot of the AI boom, and that customers could eventually push back against soaring memory costs, creating a risk of more volatility. Micron and SK Hynix Stocks Jump. Watch for This Memory-Related Catalyst. Micron Technology Profile (Free Report)
Micron Technology, Inc is a global semiconductor company that designs and manufactures memory and storage solutions. Its product portfolio includes dynamic random-access memory (DRAM), NAND flash memory, solid-state drives (SSDs), memory modules and embedded memory solutions for a wide range of computing and electronic devices. Micron supplies components used in data centers, enterprise and cloud infrastructure, client computing, mobile devices, automotive systems and industrial applications, and also markets consumer-facing products under the Crucial brand.
Founded in 1978 and headquartered in Boise, Idaho, Micron has grown into an international manufacturer with research, development and production facilities across multiple regions.
Featured Articles Five stocks we like better than Micron Technology Confidence Is Back, But Earnings Show the Consumer Is Being Picky AeroVironment’s Stock Is Down, But Drone Demand Is Taking Off 3M’s Redemption Arc: Can Q2 Earnings Change the Narrative? 3 Photonics Companies Making Quantum Tech Possible Want to see what other hedge funds are holding MU? Visit HoldingsChannel.com to get the latest 13F filings and insider trades for Micron Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ:MU – Free Report).
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Micron Technology (MU 1.24%) stock went on an absolute tear this year as the market reacted to insatiable demand for the memory chips it makes. Its run has been nothing short of remarkable, rivaling that of AI behemoth Nvidia just a few years ago.
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Five years ago, could anyone have anticipated Micron's monster rally? Not likely. That's why you could snag shares at less than $80 while they're now trading close to $1,000.
If you had bought back then and held all the way through, what would an intital $5,000 have gotten you?
What a $5,000 investment in Micron would be worth today The nearly 1,200% return would mean your investment would now be worth a whopping $64,340.
Take a look at the incredible growth in the chart below.
MU data by YCharts
Micron rode the AI wave to a $1 trillion valuation The chart is so zoomed out that it's hard to tell, but the ride up was not smooth. Micron fell hard in 2022 as memory prices crashed, then clawed back in 2023. It finally exploded this year once AI servers created insatiable demand for its high-bandwidth memory (HBM) chips. The company crossed a $1 trillion market cap in May 2026.
While it looks like demand will continue for some time, I think the boom-bust nature of memory chip stocks will continue, and now is not the time to jump in. If demand cools even a little, the stock could fall hard once again.
Johnny Rice has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Micron Technology. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Jim Cramer, host of Mad Money, used his Tuesday morning appearance on CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street” on July 21, 2026 to fire a warning shot at investors who have ridden the AI trade to fresh highs and never taken a chip off the table. His message was blunt: “Because if you own too much tech, you’re going to be slaughtered. And you won’t even know what hit you. For the moment, it’s time to go to other sectors that can make you money without the volatility.”
With futures pointing higher on renewed semiconductor strength, Cramer wants investors to lean against the crowd and rotate proceeds into groups that have lagged the AI melt-up. The playbook: financials and healthcare, where valuations are cleaner and earnings power is showing up in results from banks that just reported.
The Discipline: Take Off Half When a Group Goes Red Hot Cramer’s rotation call is rooted in position sizing, not a top call on tech. “When you have a group that is red hot, you take off half. You have to be disciplined, and the reason why you have to be disciplined is because a lot of this last run, the parabolic move, is not cured by a 20% to 30% decline because the stock went up more than that.”
Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU | MU Price Prediction) is Exhibit A. Cramer suggested a few weeks ago that investors sell half of Micron, and the numbers explain why. Shares are up 240.36% year to date and 758.78% over the past year. Fiscal Q3 2026 revenue landed at $41.456 billion, a 17.60% beat, with non-GAAP EPS of $25.11 versus $20.28 expected and GAAP gross margin expanding to 84.6% from 37.7% a year earlier. The fundamentals are real; the move is parabolic. Polymarket contracts currently price a 0.74 probability that Micron closes lower on July 22.
Where Cramer Sees Value: Banks at 12 to 15 Times Earnings The sector composition is already tilting. Among the top ten DOW names year to date, eight are either healthcare or financials. The July 14 bank earnings gave the rotation fresh fuel.
JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM) posted Q2 EPS of $7.70 versus $5.80 expected on $57.35 billion in revenue, and authorized a fresh $50 billion buyback. Cramer’s take on Jamie Dimon: “You can buy his stock for 15 times earnings. It’s one of the brightest guys in the world. Jamie and his team is filled with brilliant people. 15 times. I’ll take it.” Shares are up 8.65% YTD.
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Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) trades at 14 times earnings, delivered a fifth consecutive EPS beat at $1.21, and is up 13.34% YTD. Wells Fargo trades at 12 times earnings and remains -4.84% YTD, the kind of laggard Cramer is willing to buy while others chase memory chips.
Healthcare: Lilly the GLP-1 Winner Cramer’s second lane is pharma, and he wants the winner of the GLP-1 war. “I will say, you know what? Let me go and buy some Lilly into the Novo Nordisk weakness.”
Eli Lilly (NYSE:LLY) reported Q1 EPS of $8.55 versus $6.79 expected and revenue of $19.80 billion, up 55.5% YoY, then raised 2026 guidance to $82.0-$85.0 billion. Mounjaro alone did $8.66 billion, up 125%. Novo Nordisk, by contrast, is down 20.46% over the past year and guided full-year adjusted sales to a decline of 4% to 12% at constant currency.
The Takeaway Cramer’s message is about discipline. He wants investors to recognize when a move has run past what any normal pullback could fix, trim into strength, and redeploy where earnings are compounding at reasonable multiples. Banks reporting record quarters at 12 to 15 times earnings and a pharma leader raising guidance mid-year give him a place to put the profits. The discipline is the point.
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The explosive growth of artificial intelligence (AI) has ignited a new supercycle in memory and storage chips. Training and running AI models demand enormous quantities of high-speed, low-latency memory to process massive data sets and parallel computations without bottlenecks.
Micron Technology (MU +12.26%) and Sandisk (SNDK +14.27%) have been prime beneficiaries of the AI memory boom thanks to their leadership in DRAM, NAND flash, and high-bandwidth memory (HMB). So far this year, Sandisk and Micron have surged 503% and 210%, respectively -- making them the top two performers in the Nasdaq-100.
While it may be tempting to follow the momentum, I think a harsh sell-off could be in store later this month. Read on to find out why.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
Why memory is becoming the bottleneck of AI workloads AI systems cannot function efficiently without high-performance memory. Frontier models shuttle billions of parameters and contextual data between processors at blistering speed. Insufficient DRAM bandwidth or storage capacity quickly becomes a limiting factor regardless of how powerful the underlying GPU clusters are.
Micron specializes in DRAM and HBM for training and real-time inference. Sandisk focuses on high-density NAND flash and enterprise-grade solid-state drives (SSDs) -- the storage foundation for vast data sets and model weights that power AI at scale. Both companies have ridden powerful tailwinds as AI hyperscalers race to expand capacity -- creating a structural shortage that has supported robust pricing power and earnings expansion.
Apple is pushing for more efficiency on its devices At the moment, there is no indication that Apple (AAPL +0.33%) will build its own memory fabs. Instead, the company continues to rely on external suppliers for its DRAM and NAND needs. However, recent reports suggest that Apple is exploring a collaboration with a company called PrismML, which specializes in memory compression.
The idea here is simple: Apple could use software optimizations to shrink AI models so they run more effectively on iPhones. By doing so, Apple can use memory quantization to slash memory cost requirements on select hardware while deploying the most demanding features on higher-end devices where component costs can be passed along to consumers in the form of price hikes.
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Taking a trip down memory lane Back in April, Alphabet released a product called TurboQuant, which promised major reductions in memory usage for AI inference. As the chart below shows, this announcement triggered an immediate sell-off in Micron and Sandisk stocks on fears that memory demand would evaporate.
MU data by YCharts
Investors can see that the sell-off was swift, yet the declines were ultimately short-lived. Both stocks quickly recovered and went on to notch fresh all-time highs as AI adoption continued to scale with higher overall memory and storage usage.
I think a comparable pattern could play out after Apple reports earnings on July 30. Any commentary about on-device AI progress or even rumors of proprietary memory protocols could spark short-term selling pressure in Micron and Sandisk as investors worry about reduced memory demand or new competition.
With that said, history suggests such a move would be overdone. Even if Apple improves its on-device capabilities or partners with memory-efficient providers, the fundamental need for HBM across the broader AI infrastructure stack is not going to diminish overnight. In fact, any advancement that Apple makes ultimately underscores the enduring importance and scarcity of advanced memory in the AI era. For this reason, any post-earnings weakness in Micron or Sandisk could represent a compelling opportunity to buy the dip.
Seeing Machines Ltd (AIM:SEE, OTC:SEEMF, FRA:M2Z), the AIM-listed computer vision company, has secured a new driver and occupant monitoring contract with a European carmaker as fresh European Union safety rules take effect.
The award, won through an existing Tier 1 supplier, is expected to generate around $5 million in lifetime revenue.
Start of production is scheduled for 2028, with the technology deployed across future vehicle platforms including electric models.
The system will be built into a rear-view mirror rather than the dashboard or steering column, an architecture the company said can be rolled out across multiple vehicle lines with less engineering work and lower cost.
Driver monitoring systems use cameras and software to track a driver's eyes and head position, alerting them if they appear distracted or drowsy.
The contract lands as the European Union's General Safety Regulation requirements for driver monitoring technology come into force, obliging manufacturers to fit the systems on new vehicles.
Paul McGlone, chief executive, said the award reflected the confidence Tier 1 partners and carmakers place in the company's technology.
He said the mirror-based integration offered manufacturers an efficient route to scaling deployment across several platforms.
McGlone added that the industry was moving from early adoption to broader rollout of camera-based in-cabin sensing, with the new regulation acting as a catalyst.
Seeing Machines, which is headquartered in Canberra and listed in London, supplies its technology to both the automotive and commercial fleet markets.
The company has spent years building an automotive production pipeline against a backdrop of persistent losses, making regulatory-driven demand central to its path to profitability.
The GSR timetable has long been viewed as the key commercial trigger for the sector, forcing carmakers to specify monitoring technology rather than treat it as an optional feature.
The latest award adds to a pipeline the company says positions it to benefit as manufacturers accelerate adoption across global vehicle ranges.
By rotating capital from earlier tech victories, Link is capitalizing on recent semiconductor pullbacks to secure long-term positions in compute and memory.
Swapping Marvell for MicronLink’s strategic rotation began by locking in profits on Marvell Technology Inc. (NASDAQ:MRVL). “I sold Marvell because I was up over 100%,” Link explained, noting that investors should take gains when available.
“We are short memory, we are short compute,” Link said, emphasizing how this supply imbalance grants Micron massive pricing power, with average selling prices soaring 60% in DRAM and 80% in NAND. She estimates the company holds roughly $40 per share in long-term cycle earnings power.
Loading Up on NvidiaAlongside Micron, Link initiated a buying phase for Nvidia, citing the stock’s recent lag as a prime entry point. Noting it had underperformed its peer group by 53% year-to-date, she found the valuation highly attractive.
“It trades at 18 times forward estimates,” Link observed. “That’s the cheapest it’s traded at since 2019.”
“I do think the AI trade is certainly not over,” she concluded. “I think we’re in the third or fourth inning at this point in time.”
How Have MU and NVDA Performed In 2026?MU shares were up 240.15% year-to-date, down 14.39% over the last month, and higher by 757.39% over the year. It closed 12.17% higher at $970.82 per share on Tuesday, and it was down 2.57% in overnight trading.
Benzinga’s Edge Stock Rankings indicate that MU maintains a weak short-term price trend but strong long- and medium-term trends, with a solid quality score.
NVDA shares were up 11.15% year-to-date, down 1.61% over the last month, and higher by 20.95% over the year. It closed up 1.97% at $207.29 per share on Tuesday, and it was 0.97% lower in overnight trading.
Benzinga’s Edge Stock Rankings indicate that NVDA maintains a weak price trend in the short term but a strong trend in the long and medium terms, with a solid growth score.
Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
Photo courtesy: Mijansk786 on Shutterstock.com
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88 Energy Ltd (AIM:88E, ASX:88E, OTCQB:EEENF, FRA:POQ), in Wednesday's release of its Quarterly Activities report, noted that it had moved its Augusta-1 exploration well closer to a targeted first-quarter 2027 spud after securing Nordic Rig-3 and an Arctic-rated camp, alongside a 35% increase in South Prudhoe prospective resources.
Gross unrisked 2U prospective resources at the Alaska project rose to 768.9 million barrels of oil, of which 640.7 million barrels are net to 88 Energy. Augusta-1 is designed to test up to 133.7 million barrels gross across the Ivishak, Kuparuk and Upper Schrader Bluff reservoirs.
The company highlighted that farm-out discussions were progressing with multiple parties. Drilling remains conditional on an appropriate funding structure, permitting, contracting and other operational preparations.
At Project Phoenix, the target spud date for the Franklin Bluffs-1H horizontal well was revised to 30 March 2027. Partner Burgundy Xploration remains responsible for the agreed US$29 million Phase 1 carry, although the well depends on Burgundy completing its funding and proposed US listing.
88 Energy ended June with A$8.2 million in cash. Its 20% interest in Namibia’s PEL 93 was also made fully earned and unconditional, cancelling obligations that would have represented around US$15 million of minimum future expenditure.
TrendForce has become the first major research house to call the end of the current memory upcycle for NAND flash, the non-volatile storage chips that retain data without power and sit inside phones, laptops, memory cards and the solid-state drives used across data centres.
The Taiwanese firm expects supply to exceed demand in the second half of 2027, pushing average selling prices back into contraction after nearly two years of steep increases.
The argument runs that continued declines in handset and personal computer demand next year will offset growing data centre orders, tipping the market into a bit surplus.
That surplus, in this telling, arrives even though the only significant increase in wafer output comes from China, mirroring the pattern already visible in 2026. There is reason to think the forecast is too cautious.
The 2026 parallel
The conditions TrendForce anticipates for 2027 look strikingly similar to those that actually played out in 2026.
Last year also saw falling PC and handset sales, rising Chinese output, and significant constraints tied to surging data centre requirements.
Yet 2026 did not produce a glut.
Demand from cloud providers absorbed the available capacity, with next year's NAND allocations reportedly sold out and big technology firms already negotiating 2027 supply in advance.
If the same forces held the market tight through 2026, it is not obvious why a near-identical setup flips into oversupply a year later.
The demand TrendForce is missing
Two additional sources of demand strengthen the case that the firm is underestimating the data centre pull.
The first is the growing storage burden created by AI inference, particularly the caching of intermediate model calculations known as KVcache, which alone looks capable of lifting total NAND requirements by more than 10%.
The second is the constrained growth in hard disk drive output, which leaves incremental storage needs that have to be met somewhere, and NAND-based solid-state drives are the natural home for them.
Neither dynamic points toward a comfortable surplus.
When relief actually comes
The more likely conclusion is that NAND supply does not catch up with demand until bit output broadly picks up.
That is not a 2027 story, because meaningful new production outside China is not planned until 2028 and beyond.
Major suppliers, including Samsung Electronics (KRX:005930, LSE:BC94), SK Hynix, and Micron Technology Inc (NASDAQ:MU), are keeping capital spending disciplined, prioritising high-bandwidth memory and DRAM over NAND expansion.
Until that changes, the balance of evidence favours continued tightness rather than the price contraction TrendForce is pencilling in for the back half of 2027.
Tuesday was the day the memory trade turned back around. Micron Technology (MU +12.26%), Western Digital (WDC +12.60%), and Sandisk (SNDK +14.33%) rose 12%, 12.5%, and 14.3%, respectively, in Tuesday's session. It was a violent reversal for three stocks that entered the day down 31%, 39%, and 41% from their 52-week highs.
The biggest catalyst was a single forecast. In a Monday note, Morgan Stanley reportedly told clients it expects memory prices to rise at least 25% from the second quarter to the third, with artificial intelligence (AI) data-center demand keeping supply tight. The firm's checks reportedly found no sign the shortage is easing, and it said shortages could grow even more severe in 2027 and 2028. The group started climbing on the note Monday. On Tuesday, the buying turned into a surge.
For a group of stocks that had spent two weeks selling off on fears the memory boom was ending, that was the whole argument. If prices are still rising, the boom isn't over. Here's what the forecast means for each of the three.
Image source: Micron.
Micron has the broadest exposure Micron is the biggest of the three and the most watched. The company sells both major categories of memory chips (DRAM and NAND flash), plus the high-bandwidth memory that AI accelerators depend on. So a rising price forecast touches nearly everything it ships.
Its latest results show what that leverage already looks like. Revenue for Micron's fiscal third quarter (the period ended May 28) more than quadrupled year over year to $41.5 billion, the company's fifth consecutive quarterly revenue record. Net income came in at $28.2 billion. And operating cash flow more than doubled sequentially, to $25.4 billion from $11.9 billion the prior quarter.
Today's Change
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106.13
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971.59
"Micron's record fiscal Q3 financial results and even stronger outlook for Q4 reflect the strategic value of memory in the AI era," CEO Sanjay Mehrotra said in the company's June earnings release.
Even after Tuesday's move, the stock trades at about 20 times earnings, a multiple that says investors still doubt numbers like these can last.
Western Digital rode along Western Digital is the odd one out: it doesn't sell memory chips at all. The company makes hard disk drives, the slower, cheaper storage tier that data centers deploy in enormous volumes. Its leverage to a memory-price forecast is indirect.
Its own supply picture, however, is just as tight. Revenue for its fiscal third quarter (the period ended April 3) rose 45% year over year to $3.3 billion, and guidance calls for 36% to 44% year-over-year growth in the fiscal fourth quarter.
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61.43
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$
548.85
"The demand drivers are clear: Virtually every AI workload, from training, inference, agentic AI to physical AI, creates data that is stored persistently and cost-efficiently on HDDs," Western Digital CEO Irving Tan said in the company's April earnings release.
When every tier of data-center storage is scarce at once, the market trades the group as one bet on AI's appetite for capacity. Tuesday showed as much.
Sandisk is the purest play Sandisk sells NAND flash, the exact product whose price Morgan Stanley expects to jump. That arguably makes it the most direct way to own the forecast.
Its results show what rising NAND prices do to a focused producer. Sandisk's fiscal third-quarter revenue rose 251% year over year to $5.95 billion, and non-GAAP (adjusted) gross margin reached 78.4%, up more than 55 percentage points from a year earlier. When the price of a company's core product surges, most of the increase lands in gross profit.
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14.33
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199.31
Current Price
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1,590.26
The company is also locking in demand, signing five multiyear supply agreements under a new business model built on firm customer commitments. And its guidance calls for $7.75 billion to $8.25 billion of revenue in its just-ended fiscal fourth quarter, or roughly 34% sequential growth at the midpoint.
One forecast, three different bets So which of the three has the most direct leverage to rising memory prices? Arguably, Sandisk, whose entire business is the product in question. Micron is close behind, with broader exposure across DRAM, NAND, and high-bandwidth memory. Western Digital benefits at one remove, through the same data-center scramble that is straining storage supply of every kind.
Of course, a forecast is still just a forecast, and memory remains the most cyclical corner of the chip industry. The same operating leverage that multiplies profits on the way up works in reverse when prices roll over. The roughly 30% to 40% drawdowns these stocks carried into Tuesday existed precisely because investors understand this risk.
Ultimately, I wouldn't chase Tuesday's move. If Morgan Stanley is right about the third quarter, these companies' results will do the talking soon enough. And if it's wrong, this group has demonstrated in recent weeks just how fast it can reprice in either direction.
