Counterpoint Mutual Funds LLC lifted its position in Micron Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ:MU – Free Report) by 19.4% in the 3rd quarter, according to its most recent Form 13F filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The institutional investor owned 9,455 shares of the semiconductor manufacturer’s stock after acquiring an additional 1,539 shares during the quarter. Micron Technology accounts for approximately 0.8% of Counterpoint Mutual Funds LLC’s investment portfolio, making the stock its 18th largest holding. Counterpoint Mutual Funds LLC’s holdings in Micron Technology were worth $10,071,000 at the end of the most recent quarter.
Other hedge funds also recently added to or reduced their stakes in the company. M.E. Allison & CO. Inc. raised its holdings in shares of Micron Technology by 0.8% in the 2nd quarter. M.E. Allison & CO. Inc. now owns 1,324 shares of the semiconductor manufacturer’s stock valued at $1,528,000 after purchasing an additional 11 shares in the last quarter. Purus Wealth Management LLC lifted its position in shares of Micron Technology by 1.4% in the 3rd quarter. Purus Wealth Management LLC now owns 814 shares of the semiconductor manufacturer’s stock worth $867,000 after purchasing an additional 11 shares during the period. Ables Iannone Moore & Associates Inc. boosted its stake in shares of Micron Technology by 5.3% during the third quarter. Ables Iannone Moore & Associates Inc. now owns 237 shares of the semiconductor manufacturer’s stock valued at $252,000 after purchasing an additional 12 shares in the last quarter. Koesten Hirschmann & Crabtree INC. boosted its stake in shares of Micron Technology by 5.6% during the third quarter. Koesten Hirschmann & Crabtree INC. now owns 228 shares of the semiconductor manufacturer’s stock valued at $243,000 after purchasing an additional 12 shares in the last quarter. Finally, Cherrydale Wealth Management LLC increased its holdings in Micron Technology by 1.4% during the second quarter. Cherrydale Wealth Management LLC now owns 972 shares of the semiconductor manufacturer’s stock valued at $1,122,000 after buying an additional 13 shares during the period. 80.84% of the stock is owned by hedge funds and other institutional investors.
Micron Technology Stock Down 5.6% Shares of Micron Technology stock opened at $878.84 on Friday. The company has a quick ratio of 2.94, a current ratio of 3.31 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.03. The company has a market cap of $994.34 billion, a P/E ratio of 11.84, a PEG ratio of 0.15 and a beta of 2.22. The firm’s 50 day moving average price is $985.88 and its 200-day moving average price is $861.24. Micron Technology, Inc. has a 52-week low of $192.40 and a 52-week high of $1,255.00.
Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU – Get Free Report) last posted its earnings results on Wednesday, September 30th. The semiconductor manufacturer reported $33.42 EPS for the quarter, beating analysts’ consensus estimates of $31.77 by $1.65. Micron Technology had a net margin of 63.80% and a return on equity of 92.62%. The company had revenue of $54.23 billion during the quarter, compared to analysts’ expectations of $51.33 billion. During the same quarter in the prior year, the company posted $3.03 earnings per share. Micron Technology’s revenue for the quarter was up 379.1% compared to the same quarter last year. Micron Technology has set its Q1 2027 guidance at 37.150-39.150 EPS. On average, sell-side analysts predict that Micron Technology, Inc. will post 177.03 EPS for the current fiscal year. Micron Technology Announces Dividend The firm also recently declared a quarterly dividend, which will be paid on Thursday, October 29th. Stockholders of record on Wednesday, October 14th will be given a dividend of $0.15 per share. The ex-dividend date of this dividend is Wednesday, October 14th. This represents a $0.60 dividend on an annualized basis and a dividend yield of 0.1%. Micron Technology’s dividend payout ratio is presently 0.81%.
Analysts Set New Price Targets A number of brokerages recently commented on MU. The Goldman Sachs Group set a $1,250.00 price objective on shares of Micron Technology in a research note on Thursday, October 1st. Susquehanna restated a “positive” rating on shares of Micron Technology in a report on Thursday, October 1st. Weiss Ratings raised Micron Technology from a “buy (b)” rating to a “buy (b+)” rating in a research report on Monday, October 12th. Raymond James Financial reiterated an “outperform” rating on shares of Micron Technology in a report on Thursday, October 1st. Finally, Bank of America lifted their price target on Micron Technology from $950.00 to $1,500.00 and gave the company a “buy” rating in a report on Tuesday, June 23rd. One equities research analyst has rated the stock with a Strong Buy rating, forty-one have issued a Buy rating and four have issued a Hold rating to the company’s stock. According to MarketBeat, the stock has a consensus rating of “Moderate Buy” and a consensus price target of $1,407.88.
Get Our Latest Report on MU
Trending Headlines about Micron Technology Here are the key news stories impacting Micron Technology this week:
Positive Sentiment: Micron’s long-term outlook remains supported by tight memory supply and robust AI demand. Analysts and commentators point to expanding margins, pricing strength, high-bandwidth memory (HBM) growth, and management’s expectation that supply constraints could persist through 2028. Micron: Why You Should Buy Before Dec’26 Positive Sentiment: Recent results exceeded expectations: fiscal fourth-quarter revenue reached approximately $54.2 billion, above the high end of management’s outlook, while full-year revenue reportedly rose to about $133.2 billion. Supporters also cite long-term customer agreements, price floors, potential share repurchases under Micron’s $35 billion authorization, and continued investment in U.S. manufacturing. Micron Stock Is 25% Below Its June Record Positive Sentiment: ASML’s comments that demand for advanced chipmaking equipment exceeds supply through 2028 are viewed as favorable for Micron, a major ASML customer developing next-generation HBM products. Micron also pledged $50 million to U.S. memory research, reinforcing its domestic technology and supply-chain strategy. ASML Just Delivered Excellent News for Micron Stock Investors Neutral Sentiment: Several analysts continue to describe the retreat as a potential buying opportunity, citing Micron’s valuation and earnings growth. However, bullish price targets depend on memory demand remaining strong and the current pricing cycle lasting longer than expected. Negative Sentiment: Investors remain concerned that CXMT’s progress in DDR5, LPDDR5X, and server memory could pressure pricing and market share, particularly in conventional memory. A possible industry oversupply later this decade adds to the cyclical risk. Memory stocks are getting hammered Negative Sentiment: The broader AI trade is under pressure as investors question whether data-center spending can generate adequate returns and whether highly leveraged “neocloud” companies can remain viable. Higher inflation and the prospect of additional interest-rate increases are also encouraging rotation away from expensive technology stocks. Negative Sentiment: One senior executive sold 6,328 Micron shares on October 14. The transaction appears isolated and is small relative to the company, but it adds a modest negative signal during an already weak trading period. Monster insider trading alert for Micron stock Insider Transactions at Micron Technology In other news, CAO Scott Allen sold 879 shares of the stock in a transaction on Thursday, July 23rd. The stock was sold at an average price of $1,000.00, for a total transaction of $879,000.00. Following the completion of the sale, the chief accounting officer owned 34,958 shares in the company, valued at approximately $34,958,000. This represents a 2.45% decrease in their position. The sale was disclosed in a document filed with the SEC, which is accessible through this hyperlink. Also, EVP Sumit Sadana sold 15,000 shares of the firm’s stock in a transaction on Tuesday, August 18th. The stock was sold at an average price of $934.29, for a total value of $14,014,350.00. Following the completion of the sale, the executive vice president directly owned 191,021 shares of the company’s stock, valued at $178,469,010.09. The trade was a 7.28% decrease in their position. The SEC filing for this sale provides additional information. Over the last three months, insiders have sold 95,879 shares of company stock valued at $90,939,466. Corporate insiders own 0.24% of the company’s stock.
Micron Technology Company Profile (Free Report)
Micron Technology, Inc is a semiconductor company that develops and manufactures memory and storage products. Its portfolio includes dynamic random-access memory (DRAM), NAND flash memory, NOR flash memory, solid-state drives, memory modules, and other semiconductor solutions used in data centers, personal computers, smartphones, automotive systems, industrial equipment, and consumer electronics.
The company also provides high-bandwidth memory and other advanced memory technologies designed to support artificial intelligence, high-performance computing, networking, and graphics applications.
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Memory chip specialist Micron Technology (MU -5.63%) has seen its shares drop about 24% from their all-time high of 1,255. That might seem like a lot, and you might find yourself feeling sorry for its shareholders, but don't -- because Micron's shares are actually up 445% over the past year -- more than quintupling their value in that short period.
It's more important how the stock might perform going forward, though. We can't know for sure, but let's make an educated guess about how a $10,000 investment in Micron Technology today might grow for you in, say, four years -- by late 2030.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
What's going on with Micron?
Micron's surge is largely due to the explosion of artificial intelligence (AI) operations and the many data centers needed to facilitate it. All that infrastructure requires memory chips!
$878.84-$52.40 (-5.63%)
NASDAQ · As of 4:00 PM ET 10/16/26
Crunching numbers
In Micron's record-breaking fourth quarter, it posted net income of $37.7 billion, up 1,077% year over year. For the whole year, net income was up nearly 900% to $85 billion. Wow.
Can we expect Micron's stock to grow by 900% annually over the coming four years? Well, it might, but I wouldn't count on it. Better to hope for the best but make more conservative assumptions.
If you invest $10,000 in Micron and its stock grows by, say, 200% annually (that is, it triples in value each year), your stake would be worth a whopping $810,000 in four years. (It will go from a value of $10,000 to $30,000 to $90,000 to $270,000 to $810,000 progressively.)
That assumes the torrid rate of growth continues for data center construction and AI. The growth rate is almost certain to slow. If your stake merely doubles annually, you'll go from $10,000 to $20,000 to $40,000 to $80,000 to $160,000 in four years -- still rather amazing. If Micron's growth really slows and averages only, say, 25% growth annually, you'll end up with a position worth more than $24,000 -- which is also an excellent gain.
Keep in mind
Here are some more factors to consider:
Micron's stock, in some investors' eyes, is somewhat overvalued, with a recent price-to-sales ratio of 8.5, well above the five-year average of 3.9. Some see it as undervalued, though, with its forward-looking price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, recently 5.5, way lower than its five-year average of 11 -- and both of those numbers are quite low for a fast-growing company.
The company is really ramping up its stock buyback plans, having recently authorized up to $35 billion more in buybacks. Based on its current market value of $1.08 trillion, that's about 3.25% of the stock's value. This will shrink the number of shares, leaving each existing share worth more.
Micron is dominant, but Chinese company ChangXin Memory Technologies, or CXMT, threatens to challenge it with lower-priced chips.
The boom in AI could slow a lot, perhaps due to new worries about it. Recently, Anthropic warned that "AI models may be capable of self-replicating without access to a datacenter" -- including on home devices.
It's unclear where Micron stock will be in four years, but I suspect it will be valued much, much higher than it is now.
What happened Micron Technology Inc. (NASDAQ: MU) filed a Form 4 on 2026-10-15. It said SVP, Chief Legal Officer Michael Charles Ray sold 6,288 shares on 2026-10-14. The shares sold for $914.13 to $945.91 each and brought in about $5.85 million. After the sale, Ray held 56,288 shares. The filing says the sale was made under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan. It also reports share changes tied to vesting and tax withholding.
Key numbers Metric Latest Change Source Shares sold 6,288 shares SEC Form 4 Sale price range $914.13 to $945.91 per share SEC Form 4 Sale value about $5.85 million SEC Form 4 Shares held afterward 56,288 shares SEC Form 4 Read more: Micron Technology (MU) stock analysis and investment case
Why it matters OptimistFi's case is that Micron creates durable value through disciplined capital spending and strong cash generation across memory cycles. This filing is mixed because it shows a pre-arranged insider sale. The 6,288 shares were about 10.0% of the 62,576 shares Ray held before the trade. The same filing also shows 4,298 shares acquired on 2026-10-13 and 5,954 and 3,035 shares disposed of for withholding, so the report mixes selling with compensation-related activity. Ray still held 56,288 shares after the sale, so this was a trim, not an exit. The filing itself gives the main caveat. The sale was made under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan. It also says Performance Restricted Stock Units awarded on October 13, 2024 remain subject to vesting until certification of performance goals at the end of year 3 of the performance period.
The filing says the goals tied to Data Center SSD and HBM3E+ were certified at 233% of target. It also says relative total shareholder return was certified at 150% of target.
Browse: stock research on every company OptimistFi covers
What's next Performance Restricted Stock Units awarded on October 13, 2024 still need final vesting certification at the end of year 3 of the performance period. The awards have a 200% aggregate limit on total target shares, so that later certification will set the final share count.
The filing says this is the first of two Forms 4 because of the 30 line-item limit. So the disclosure is split across filings. That certification is the next check for investors in this case.
More from OptimistFi MU stock: the Micron Technology thesis, its status and the next test to watch Stock research on every company OptimistFi covers Latest stock research and investment-case updates OptimistFi: evidence-first equity research Sources SEC Form 4 — Micron Technology Inc Form 4 filed 2026-10-15 reporting Michael Charles Ray's sale and post-trade holdings. Read the full OptimistFi thesis on Micron Technology Inc: https://optimistfi.com/stocks/MU
See what would break the Micron Technology Inc thesis and track it live on the OptimistFi Thesis-Break Engine.
Browse every company OptimistFi covers at optimistfi.com/stocks, or read the latest evidence-first research.
The full Micron Technology Inc investment case, its status and the next test to watch live on the Micron Technology Inc thesis page.
Originally published on OptimistFi, evidence-first equity research. More at optimistfi.com.
President Trump's recent disclosures indicate that his accounts sold shares of Micron and bought shares of Meta Platforms in August. Micron has benefited greatly from a memory chip supply shortage, but history says earnings will decline during the next industry downturn.
Micron Technology (MU) is rated Buy for a 12-month holding period, trading at 6.0x annualized guided earnings with strong contract coverage into fiscal 2027. Over 75% of MU's fiscal 2027 shipments are secured by contracts or allocations, with pricing floors and ceilings mitigating near-term downside from memory price volatility. CXMT's advances pose a credible supply threat from 2028, but current MU contracts shield most revenue until then; the recent selloff is seen as overblown.
As memory demand reaches new heights in 2026 thanks to artificial intelligence (AI), many investors are weighing two heavyweights in the storage space. Deciding between Micron Technology (MU -5.63%) and Sandisk (SNDK -6.85%) requires a close look at their current and future prospects.
Micron focuses on a broad range of memory solutions, including DRAM and NAND, while Sandisk specializes in flash-based storage. While they both benefit from the same high-level industry trends, their business models and customer bases create distinct investment profiles.
The case for Micron TechnologyMicron produces semiconductor memory and storage products, including DRAM and NAND, for a wide array of applications. Its business is heavily concentrated in the data center market, which represents approximately 60% of its total revenue. Customer concentration like this adds a layer of risk to the business.
In its fiscal FY 2026, revenue reached approximately $133.2 billion, representing a massive 256.3% increase over the prior year. This growth was fueled by huge demand for memory chips across semiconductor stocks, specifically for high-bandwidth applications. The company reported net income of nearly $85 billion, which translates to a strong net margin of roughly 63.8% for the year.
Micron has total cash of $43.4 billion, with total debt of $5.1 billion. It's total debt-to-equity ratio is 3.7%, and its operating cash flow for the trailing 12-month period is $89.6 billion.
$878.84-$52.40 (-5.63%)
NASDAQ · As of 4:00 PM ET 10/16/26
The case for SandiskSandisk is a vertically integrated provider of flash semiconductor storage and advanced memory technology for global markets. The company serves the Datacenter, Edge, and Consumer segments. Its strategy relies on brand recognition and multi-year purchase commitments from enterprise partners to improve demand visibility.
In FY 2026, revenue reached nearly $20.2 billion, a significant 175.3% jump from the previous year. The company successfully pivoted from previous losses to report a net income of approximately $11.4 billion. This turnaround resulted in a robust net margin of roughly 56.5% as the company benefited from improved demand visibility and higher sales volumes.
Sandisk has total cash of $4.7 billion, with total debt of $201 million, resulting in a total debt-to-equity ratio of 1.2%. It's operating cash flow for the 12-month trailing period is $11.6 billion.
SNDK Sandisk$1,299.30-$95.53 (-6.85%)
NASDAQ · As of 4:00 PM ET 10/16/26
Risk profile comparisonMicron faces intense competition from rivals like Samsung Electronics (SSNLF +0.00%) and SK Hynix (SKHY -6.58%). Geopolitical risks also play a major role, particularly trade restrictions and decisions by the Chinese government that prohibit certain infrastructure operators from buying its products. The company also recently resolved patent litigation with Netlist (NLST -2.88%) through a settlement and licensing deal.
Sandisk is heavily dependent on its Flash Ventures partnership for its supply, which limits its ability to respond independently to market shifts. The company is also navigating complex tax liabilities following its spin-off from Western Digital (WDC -6.86%). Furthermore, it faces fluctuations in manufacturing costs due to high fixed-cost obligations.
Valuation comparisonMicron appears to be the more affordable option based on both revenue and future earnings estimates, though Sandisk maintains a premium valuation for its pure-play flash portfolio.
MetricMicron TechnologySandiskForward P/E7x8xP/S ratio13.8x13.9xWhich stock would I buy in 2026?Memory stocks have been clear winners thanks to AI, and that trend looks set to continue for some time. Over the last 12 months alone, as of this writing, Sandisk shares have climbed 827%, while the Micron stock price has climbed 334%. That said, even with those massive stock price run-ups, broadly speaking, the global semiconductor market is still expected to grow. It is valued at $189.6 billion in 2026 and is expected to reach $447.9 billion by 2034, according to Fortune Business Insights.
Both Sandisk and Micron could continue to reward shareholders, but in the battle between the two, I would still rather own Micron. That's because while Sandisk has a narrower focus, Micron's broader focus allows it to accomplish two things: generating more revenue and having a shield against sell-offs. For fiscal 2026, Micron's $133 billion in full-year revenue was six times more than Sandisk's $20 billion. Also, if certain markets within the memory or storage space saw a pullback in demand and spending, Sandisk could be hit particularly hard with its narrow focus. In comparison, Micron could hold up better with its more extensive product lineup.
Also, while both stocks have performed well, analysts are pricing in more upside for Micron over the next year. According to CNN, of the 33 who cover Sandisk, the median one-year price target is $2,225, which would represent a potential gain of 71.2% from the stock price as of this writing. The highest target is $3,600, representing a 177% gain. In comparison, Micron has similar upside potential, with a median one-year price target of 79.2% from 56 analysts. But the highest target of $3,000 would represent a 241.3% gain. Price targets aren't guarantees to come true, but that shows Micron has an edge when developing a risk-to-reward framework.
Banque Pictet & Cie SA lessened its holdings in Micron Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ:MU – Free Report) by 14.3% in the 3rd quarter, according to the company in its most recent disclosure with the Securities & Exchange Commission. The firm owned 70,265 shares of the semiconductor manufacturer’s stock after selling 11,767 shares during the period. Micron Technology comprises approximately 0.5% of Banque Pictet & Cie SA’s portfolio, making the stock its 29th biggest position. Banque Pictet & Cie SA’s holdings in Micron Technology were worth $74,840,000 at the end of the most recent quarter.
A number of other institutional investors and hedge funds have also modified their holdings of MU. M.E. Allison & CO. Inc. grew its holdings in shares of Micron Technology by 0.8% during the 2nd quarter. M.E. Allison & CO. Inc. now owns 1,324 shares of the semiconductor manufacturer’s stock valued at $1,528,000 after acquiring an additional 11 shares in the last quarter. Purus Wealth Management LLC increased its position in Micron Technology by 1.4% in the 3rd quarter. Purus Wealth Management LLC now owns 814 shares of the semiconductor manufacturer’s stock worth $867,000 after purchasing an additional 11 shares during the last quarter. Ables Iannone Moore & Associates Inc. increased its position in Micron Technology by 5.3% in the 3rd quarter. Ables Iannone Moore & Associates Inc. now owns 237 shares of the semiconductor manufacturer’s stock worth $252,000 after purchasing an additional 12 shares during the last quarter. Koesten Hirschmann & Crabtree INC. increased its position in Micron Technology by 5.6% in the 3rd quarter. Koesten Hirschmann & Crabtree INC. now owns 228 shares of the semiconductor manufacturer’s stock worth $243,000 after purchasing an additional 12 shares during the last quarter. Finally, Cherrydale Wealth Management LLC raised its stake in shares of Micron Technology by 1.4% during the 2nd quarter. Cherrydale Wealth Management LLC now owns 972 shares of the semiconductor manufacturer’s stock worth $1,122,000 after purchasing an additional 13 shares in the last quarter. Hedge funds and other institutional investors own 80.84% of the company’s stock.
Micron Technology Stock Performance Shares of MU opened at $878.84 on Friday. The company has a market capitalization of $994.34 billion, a PE ratio of 11.84, a price-to-earnings-growth ratio of 0.16 and a beta of 2.22. Micron Technology, Inc. has a one year low of $192.40 and a one year high of $1,255.00. The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.03, a current ratio of 3.31 and a quick ratio of 2.94. The company’s fifty day moving average price is $985.88 and its 200 day moving average price is $861.24.
Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU – Get Free Report) last released its quarterly earnings results on Wednesday, September 30th. The semiconductor manufacturer reported $33.42 earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter, beating analysts’ consensus estimates of $31.77 by $1.65. The company had revenue of $54.23 billion during the quarter, compared to analysts’ expectations of $51.33 billion. Micron Technology had a net margin of 63.80% and a return on equity of 92.62%. The business’s quarterly revenue was up 379.1% compared to the same quarter last year. During the same period in the prior year, the company earned $3.03 earnings per share. Micron Technology has set its Q1 2027 guidance at 37.150-39.150 EPS. As a group, analysts expect that Micron Technology, Inc. will post 177.03 earnings per share for the current year. Micron Technology Announces Dividend The firm also recently declared a quarterly dividend, which will be paid on Thursday, October 29th. Shareholders of record on Wednesday, October 14th will be given a $0.15 dividend. This represents a $0.60 annualized dividend and a yield of 0.1%. The ex-dividend date of this dividend is Wednesday, October 14th. Micron Technology’s payout ratio is currently 0.81%.
Analysts Set New Price Targets Several equities research analysts have recently issued reports on MU shares. Wells Fargo & Company reduced their price target on Micron Technology from $1,525.00 to $1,400.00 and set an “overweight” rating for the company in a report on Wednesday, September 23rd. Seaport Research Partners reissued a “buy” rating on shares of Micron Technology in a research note on Friday, August 14th. KeyCorp restated an “overweight” rating on shares of Micron Technology in a report on Thursday, October 1st. Argus cut their price objective on shares of Micron Technology from $1,500.00 to $540.00 and set a “buy” rating on the stock in a research report on Thursday, June 25th. Finally, Cantor Fitzgerald reaffirmed an “overweight” rating and set a $2,000.00 price objective on shares of Micron Technology in a research report on Thursday, October 1st. One analyst has rated the stock with a Strong Buy rating, forty-one have issued a Buy rating and four have issued a Hold rating to the company. According to MarketBeat.com, the stock presently has a consensus rating of “Moderate Buy” and a consensus target price of $1,407.88.
Get Our Latest Stock Report on Micron Technology
Micron Technology News Summary Here are the key news stories impacting Micron Technology this week:
Positive Sentiment: Micron’s long-term outlook remains supported by tight memory supply and robust AI demand. Analysts and commentators point to expanding margins, pricing strength, high-bandwidth memory (HBM) growth, and management’s expectation that supply constraints could persist through 2028. Micron: Why You Should Buy Before Dec’26 Positive Sentiment: Recent results exceeded expectations: fiscal fourth-quarter revenue reached approximately $54.2 billion, above the high end of management’s outlook, while full-year revenue reportedly rose to about $133.2 billion. Supporters also cite long-term customer agreements, price floors, potential share repurchases under Micron’s $35 billion authorization, and continued investment in U.S. manufacturing. Micron Stock Is 25% Below Its June Record Positive Sentiment: ASML’s comments that demand for advanced chipmaking equipment exceeds supply through 2028 are viewed as favorable for Micron, a major ASML customer developing next-generation HBM products. Micron also pledged $50 million to U.S. memory research, reinforcing its domestic technology and supply-chain strategy. ASML Just Delivered Excellent News for Micron Stock Investors Neutral Sentiment: Several analysts continue to describe the retreat as a potential buying opportunity, citing Micron’s valuation and earnings growth. However, bullish price targets depend on memory demand remaining strong and the current pricing cycle lasting longer than expected. Negative Sentiment: Investors remain concerned that CXMT’s progress in DDR5, LPDDR5X, and server memory could pressure pricing and market share, particularly in conventional memory. A possible industry oversupply later this decade adds to the cyclical risk. Memory stocks are getting hammered Negative Sentiment: The broader AI trade is under pressure as investors question whether data-center spending can generate adequate returns and whether highly leveraged “neocloud” companies can remain viable. Higher inflation and the prospect of additional interest-rate increases are also encouraging rotation away from expensive technology stocks. Negative Sentiment: One senior executive sold 6,328 Micron shares on October 14. The transaction appears isolated and is small relative to the company, but it adds a modest negative signal during an already weak trading period. Monster insider trading alert for Micron stock Insider Transactions at Micron Technology In other news, CAO Scott R. Allen sold 879 shares of the firm’s stock in a transaction on Thursday, July 23rd. The shares were sold at an average price of $1,000.00, for a total value of $879,000.00. Following the sale, the chief accounting officer owned 34,958 shares in the company, valued at approximately $34,958,000. This trade represents a 2.45% decrease in their ownership of the stock. The sale was disclosed in a legal filing with the SEC, which is accessible through this hyperlink. Also, CEO Sanjay Mehrotra sold 40,000 shares of the business’s stock in a transaction on Friday, August 21st. The stock was sold at an average price of $968.90, for a total transaction of $38,756,000.00. Following the transaction, the chief executive officer directly owned 264,503 shares in the company, valued at $256,276,956.70. This trade represents a 13.14% decrease in their position. The disclosure for this sale is available in the SEC filing. Insiders sold a total of 95,879 shares of company stock worth $90,939,466 over the last three months. 0.24% of the stock is currently owned by insiders.
Micron Technology Profile (Free Report)
Micron Technology, Inc is a semiconductor company that develops and manufactures memory and storage solutions. Its product portfolio includes dynamic random-access memory (DRAM), NAND flash memory, three-dimensional XPoint-related technologies, solid-state drives, and high-bandwidth memory products designed for demanding computing applications.
The company serves customers across the data center, artificial intelligence, networking, automotive, industrial, mobile, consumer electronics, and embedded markets.
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Micron (MU -5.63%) has been on an extraordinary run for the past year. The memory chipmaker has benefited from surging demand amid the AI revolution, combined with limited competition. Micron's stock has skyrocketed nearly 220% in 2026, even after a recent pullback. The company, along with a handful of others, owns the vast majority of the memory market share. That could all change, however, if China has anything to say about it.
MU Micron Technology$878.84-$52.40 (-5.63%)
NASDAQ · As of 4:00 PM ET 10/16/26
The threat to Micron's dominance comes from two state-backed Chinese companies. Yangtze Memory Technologies is aiming to overtake its competitors in the NAND market in the near future. It is currently ranked fifth by revenue, behind major players including Micron, Samsung (SSNLF +0.00%), and SK Hynix (SKHY -6.58%).
DRAM is where Micron is exposed
The bigger threat is in the DRAM market, which accounts for 73% of Micron's revenue as of last quarter. ChangXin Memory Technologies is about to launch a new, denser chip by the end of the year. This is an issue for Micron, as it will not only erode the company's market dominance but also undermine its pricing power.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
In the short term, Micron still has an incredible competitive moat. The company's high-bandwidth memory business is generally safe for now. However, DRAM and NAND businesses could suffer more as China creates cheaper models.
Micron's demand still exceeds supply and likely will for the next few years, but China's competitive threat is real and could erode Micron's margins over time. Micron's run isn't over, but I do expect growth to slow. It's still a worthwhile investment for long-term investors, though.
Catie Hogan has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Micron Technology. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Micron's revenue surged nearly 380% in a year, analysts expect even tighter memory supply through 2028, and more than 75% of next year's output is already committed. So why are investors selling as if the cycle has already peaked?
Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU | MU Price Prediction) closed at $878.84, and Wall Street’s average price target stands at $1,560.57. That leaves a gap of about 77.6% between the share price and where analysts think it belongs.
Friday’s 5.63% drop, or $52.40 a share, left the memory maker worth $994.34 billion. That puts Micron back below the trillion-dollar mark it once crossed.
Micron makes the DRAM and NAND flash chips that AI data centers use. Its latest quarter brought revenue of $54.23 billion, up 379.3% from a year earlier, and management guided for $61.5 billion next quarter.
Yet the stock now trades nearly 30% below its 52-week intraday high of $1,255.00. Analysts argue AI will keep memory scarce for years, while sellers are pricing in a peak that hasn’t shown up in the numbers.
Six Losses in Seven Sessions Knocked Micron Below $1 Trillion
Micron closed at $1,088.00 on October 7 and has fallen in six of the seven sessions since, losing 19.2%. The worst days were October 8, 12, 13 and 14, with drops of 4.79%, 3.88%, 3.62% and 4.08%.
Memory peers fell with it, as SK Hynix dropped 6.58% Friday and SanDisk (NASDAQ:SNDK) lost 6.85%. The chip index posted its eighth straight losing day, its longest streak since 2008.
The selling had macro and sector roots. Tech stocks shed more than a trillion dollars in value as oil hit a five-month high, and investors grew worried about rates and about memory pricing nearing a cyclical peak.
Wall Street Is Still Counting on Years of Tight Supply
Of 49 analysts covering Micron, 9 say Strong Buy and 36 Buy. Only 3 say Hold and 1 Strong Sell.
Their case rests on high-bandwidth memory, the stacked DRAM that AI accelerators need in bulk. Management expects supply and demand to be “much tighter” in 2027 and 2028 than in 2026 and says more than 75% of 2027 output is already committed.
Micron has 26 strategic customer agreements expected to cover more than 35% of revenue through 2030. Chief Executive Sanjay Mehrotra said on the earnings call, “We do not have line of sight to when supply and demand will return to balance.”
Targets are forecasts rather than guarantees. The stock’s forward multiple of about 7 shows how little the market trusts them.
Low Earnings Multiples Have Misled Memory Investors Before
Memory runs in cycles. High prices draw new capacity, supply overshoots, and prices fall, so memory stocks often look cheapest on earnings right before profits peak.
Watch for softer contract pricing, rising customer inventory, and bigger capacity budgets. Micron itself expects about $25 billion in capital spending during the opening six months of fiscal 2027, with more in the second half.
CXMT reported a preliminary nine-month net profit of 131 billion to 132.5 billion yuan, roughly $19.6 billion to $19.8 billion, versus a loss a year ago. That confirms tight DRAM pricing but also funds a Chinese rival’s expansion.
Micron’s 52-week range runs from $192.40 to $1,255.00. That shows how volatile the stock has been.
SanDisk and Seagate Fell Faster Than Micron This Week
The storage group sold off together, and Micron’s 14.58% weekly drop was the softest of the three. Its 208.16% year-to-date gain is still well above the S&P 500’s 11.93%.
SanDisk fell 17.86% in a week to $1,299.30. Its $2,173 average target implies 67.2% upside, with 4 Strong Buys and 17 Buys against 3 Holds and 1 Strong Sell.
Seagate Technology (NASDAQ:STX) lost 18.39% to $639.01, and its $1,138.33 target implies 78.1% upside, barely the group’s largest. It carries 4 Strong Buys, 18 Buys, 2 Holds and 1 Strong Sell, but trades near 26 times forward earnings.
What Could Close Micron’s Gap to Analyst Targets
Micron’s case likely improves if contract pricing holds into its next earnings report, expected around December 15, and hyperscalers keep raising capital spending guidance. Delivering the guided $38.15 in non-GAAP EPS would start closing the gap to $1,560.57.
But the outlook weakens if contract prices flatten, inventories build, or memory makers keep raising capacity budgets, a risk that CXMT’s new profits make more likely.
On balance, the fundamentals look stronger than the share price suggests, although volatility remains high. The selloff came from macro and sector fear, and most of Micron’s 2027 output is already under contract.
Within the group, Micron looks cheaper than Seagate. Seagate offers similar implied upside at a far higher forward multiple, while Micron offers exposure to the same AI storage demand for about 7 times forward earnings.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
China's state-backed memory giant just flipped from billions in losses to a profit haul big enough to fund the factories that could end the AI chip boom Micron is banking on.
China’s largest memory chipmaker, ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT), told the Shanghai Stock Exchange on October 16, 2026, that it earned between $19.6 billion and $19.8 billion in net profit from January through September 2026. That works out to 131 billion to 132.5 billion yuan. The figures are preliminary and unaudited, so they are the company’s estimates until audited results confirm them.
In the same period of 2025, CXMT lost 5.3 billion yuan. Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU | MU Price Prediction) fell 5.63% to $878.84 that day. The whole chip sector sold off, so CXMT’s filing cannot be blamed for the drop on its own.
This creates a problem for Micron holders. CXMT’s profit shows the shortage is lifting every memory maker, but it also gives a state-backed rival the cash to build the new supply that usually ends memory booms.
What CXMT Put in Writing Revenue came in between 265 billion and 270 billion yuan, compared with 32.1 billion yuan a year earlier. That is more than an eightfold increase. CXMT gave three reasons: AI demand has squeezed the DRAM market (the main working memory in computers and servers) since the second half of 2025, the company added capacity, and it got more chips out of each silicon wafer.
Chairman Zhu Yiming proposed a buyback of 1 billion to 2 billion yuan over 12 months. So far, that is only a proposal, and no shares have been bought under it.
CXMT listed in Shanghai in July and jumped 466% on its first day. On October 16, shares rose 3.28% to 45.02 yuan, valuing the company at about 3.06 trillion yuan. You cannot buy CXMT on a US exchange, which makes Micron the US-listed stock most tied to this story.
How CXMT Measures Up Against Micron Micron earned $37.701 billion in its fiscal fourth quarter alone. That single quarter is more than CXMT’s nine-month total, and it came on full-year revenue of $133.19 billion.
US export controls limit China’s access to the most advanced chipmaking tools. Those tools matter most for high-bandwidth memory (HBM), the stacked chips used in AI servers. Micron says it has completed deals for the “vast majority” of its calendar 2027 HBM supply. Its September 30, 2026 earnings call included no specific comment on Chinese competitors.
Signals That the Memory Cycle Is Turning Memory booms tend to follow the same path. Shortages push prices up, the profits pay for new factories, and the new supply eventually pulls prices back down. CXMT now has the cash for that second step.
Micron’s management argues the turn is still a long way off: “We do not have line of sight to when supply and demand will return to balance.” Keep in mind that a seller has every reason to say supply is tight. Still, Micron backs the claim with more than 75% of its 2027 output already committed.
Micron Metric Figure October 16 close $878.84 Past week -14.58% Year to date 208.16% Past year 334.44% 52-week high $1,255.00 Peers fell more than Micron on October 16. SK Hynix dropped 6.58%, and SanDisk (NASDAQ:SNDK) lost 6.85%. The selloff left Micron’s market value at $994.34 billion, just under $1 trillion.
What Could Drive MU Stock From Here Micron’s share price has pulled back from its peak. The stock sits about 30% below its high, while the company guided fiscal first-quarter revenue to $61.5 billion ± $1.5 billion.
Micron’s long-term supply contracts with customers also set minimum prices for its chips. Its finance chief said, “Even at floor prices, we expect margins meaningfully above any prior cycle peak margins.”
Since CXMT trades only in Shanghai, Micron is still the US-listed company most exposed to this theme. SanDisk is more exposed to NAND storage, and it fell harder that day.
Two developments would weaken this outlook. The first is Micron’s next earnings report coming in below the bottom of that guidance range. The second is CXMT announcing a large capacity expansion alongside its audited full-year results.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Oil prices, rising interest rates, and 24-year highs for 10-year Treasuries can certainly make investors get defensive. However, that doesn't mean you should exit stocks as quickly as possible. In fact, buying growth stocks when investors are fleeing in droves can lead to elevated long-term returns, if you buy the right stocks.
Although Micron Technology (MU -5.63%) has been battered in recent weeks and remains in the spotlight, it has become more attractive at current levels. Here's why I would buy Micron and hold it through a recession.
Image source: Getty Images.
Tech giants still have the capital and need for memory products
Recessions do not affect every person and business in the same way. Some enterprises can thrive in recessions, or at least maintain their market share, and Micron looks like one of them because of its large customer base.
For instance, Microsoft (MSFT -1.93%) is one of the many tech companies aggressively ramping up its AI infrastructure expenditures. The tech giant reported $35.8 billion in net income in its fiscal 2026 fourth quarter. It also had $76.8 billion in cash and cash equivalents.
That's the type of profile Micron's largest customers have. It's akin to the K-shaped economy, a phenomenon that involves high-net-worth individuals and households propping up the economy. The AI boom is supported by the companies with the deepest pockets, which offers built-in recession protection. It's not recession-proof, but Micron produces a vital product for the most innovative technology right now. Hyperscalers don't seem to care how much they have to pay for it.
MU Micron Technology$878.84-$52.40 (-5.63%)
NASDAQ · As of 4:00 PM ET 10/16/26
Micron expects a stronger fiscal 2027
It's no secret that Micron has been posting incredible financial results amid the AI boom, but it's easy to forget that type of success amid recession concerns. For starters, the chipmaker delivered 31% sequential revenue growth in its fiscal 2026 fourth quarter (379% year-over-year growth).
Micron also anticipates a stronger fiscal 2027, and that assertion is built on multi-year strategic agreements with large customers, not hype. Some of the recent pullback on Micron is based on a Chinese memory chipmaker saying that it has made significant progress in developing more efficient chips, but this reminds me of when DeepSeek caused an ill-guided AI stock meltdown in January 2025.
In other words, the China-fueled dip in Micron seems unjustified. The current result is a forward P/E ratio of 7, which makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in the entire market.
That absurd valuation won't last forever. A stronger fiscal 2027 and customers with deep pockets give Micron more insulation from a recession than the average stock.
Annex Advisory Services LLC raised its position in Micron Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ:MU – Free Report) by 849.9% during the third quarter, according to its most recent filing with the SEC. The firm owned 50,382 shares of the semiconductor manufacturer’s stock after purchasing an additional 45,078 shares during the period. Annex Advisory Services LLC’s holdings in Micron Technology were worth $53,662,000 as of its most recent filing with the SEC.
Other institutional investors also recently modified their holdings of the company. BostonPremier Wealth LLC raised its holdings in Micron Technology by 9.4% during the third quarter. BostonPremier Wealth LLC now owns 514 shares of the semiconductor manufacturer’s stock worth $548,000 after buying an additional 44 shares during the last quarter. Franchise GP Ltd grew its holdings in shares of Micron Technology by 6.1% during the third quarter. Franchise GP Ltd now owns 14,200 shares of the semiconductor manufacturer’s stock valued at $15,125,000 after buying an additional 820 shares during the last quarter. Riverbend Wealth Management LLC grew its holdings in shares of Micron Technology by 48.2% during the third quarter. Riverbend Wealth Management LLC now owns 1,064 shares of the semiconductor manufacturer’s stock valued at $1,133,000 after buying an additional 346 shares during the last quarter. ACT Advisors LLC. increased its position in shares of Micron Technology by 23.9% during the third quarter. ACT Advisors LLC. now owns 560 shares of the semiconductor manufacturer’s stock worth $597,000 after acquiring an additional 108 shares in the last quarter. Finally, Andrews Advisory Associates LLC increased its position in shares of Micron Technology by 29.9% during the third quarter. Andrews Advisory Associates LLC now owns 435 shares of the semiconductor manufacturer’s stock worth $463,000 after acquiring an additional 100 shares in the last quarter. 80.84% of the stock is owned by institutional investors.
Micron Technology Price Performance Micron Technology stock opened at $878.84 on Friday. Micron Technology, Inc. has a 12 month low of $192.40 and a 12 month high of $1,255.00. The company has a current ratio of 3.31, a quick ratio of 2.94 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.03. The business’s 50 day simple moving average is $985.88 and its 200 day simple moving average is $861.24. The company has a market cap of $994.34 billion, a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.84, a PEG ratio of 0.16 and a beta of 2.22.
Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU – Get Free Report) last announced its quarterly earnings data on Wednesday, September 30th. The semiconductor manufacturer reported $33.42 earnings per share for the quarter, beating the consensus estimate of $31.77 by $1.65. Micron Technology had a return on equity of 92.62% and a net margin of 63.80%. The business had revenue of $54.23 billion during the quarter, compared to analyst estimates of $51.33 billion. During the same period in the prior year, the company earned $3.03 earnings per share. Micron Technology’s revenue was up 379.1% compared to the same quarter last year. Micron Technology has set its Q1 2027 guidance at 37.150-39.150 EPS. Sell-side analysts forecast that Micron Technology, Inc. will post 177.03 EPS for the current year. Micron Technology Announces Dividend The firm also recently announced a quarterly dividend, which will be paid on Thursday, October 29th. Stockholders of record on Wednesday, October 14th will be paid a $0.15 dividend. The ex-dividend date is Wednesday, October 14th. This represents a $0.60 annualized dividend and a dividend yield of 0.1%. Micron Technology’s dividend payout ratio (DPR) is presently 0.81%.
Wall Street Analyst Weigh In Several equities analysts recently weighed in on the stock. BMO Capital Markets reaffirmed an “outperform” rating on shares of Micron Technology in a research report on Thursday, October 1st. UBS Group reissued a “buy” rating and set a $1,625.00 price objective (up from $535.00) on shares of Micron Technology in a report on Wednesday, September 23rd. Erste Group Bank raised Micron Technology from a “hold” rating to a “buy” rating in a research note on Thursday, June 25th. HSBC raised their target price on Micron Technology from $1,100.00 to $1,700.00 and gave the company a “buy” rating in a report on Thursday, June 25th. Finally, Mizuho raised their target price on Micron Technology from $1,300.00 to $1,400.00 and gave the company an “outperform” rating in a report on Thursday, October 1st. One investment analyst has rated the stock with a Strong Buy rating, forty-one have issued a Buy rating and four have assigned a Hold rating to the company’s stock. According to MarketBeat.com, the company currently has a consensus rating of “Moderate Buy” and an average price target of $1,407.88.
Check Out Our Latest Stock Report on Micron Technology
Insider Activity In related news, CEO Sanjay Mehrotra sold 40,000 shares of the firm’s stock in a transaction that occurred on Friday, August 21st. The shares were sold at an average price of $968.90, for a total value of $38,756,000.00. Following the completion of the transaction, the chief executive officer directly owned 264,503 shares of the company’s stock, valued at approximately $256,276,956.70. This trade represents a 13.14% decrease in their position. The transaction was disclosed in a filing with the Securities & Exchange Commission, which is accessible through this hyperlink. Also, CAO Scott R. Allen sold 879 shares of Micron Technology stock in a transaction that occurred on Thursday, July 23rd. The shares were sold at an average price of $1,000.00, for a total transaction of $879,000.00. Following the completion of the transaction, the chief accounting officer owned 34,958 shares of the company’s stock, valued at $34,958,000. This represents a 2.45% decrease in their ownership of the stock. The disclosure for this sale is available in the SEC filing. Insiders have sold a total of 95,879 shares of company stock valued at $90,939,466 over the last quarter. Company insiders own 0.24% of the company’s stock.
Key Stories Impacting Micron Technology Here are the key news stories impacting Micron Technology this week:
Positive Sentiment: Micron’s long-term outlook remains supported by tight memory supply and robust AI demand. Analysts and commentators point to expanding margins, pricing strength, high-bandwidth memory (HBM) growth, and management’s expectation that supply constraints could persist through 2028. Micron: Why You Should Buy Before Dec’26 Positive Sentiment: Recent results exceeded expectations: fiscal fourth-quarter revenue reached approximately $54.2 billion, above the high end of management’s outlook, while full-year revenue reportedly rose to about $133.2 billion. Supporters also cite long-term customer agreements, price floors, potential share repurchases under Micron’s $35 billion authorization, and continued investment in U.S. manufacturing. Micron Stock Is 25% Below Its June Record Positive Sentiment: ASML’s comments that demand for advanced chipmaking equipment exceeds supply through 2028 are viewed as favorable for Micron, a major ASML customer developing next-generation HBM products. Micron also pledged $50 million to U.S. memory research, reinforcing its domestic technology and supply-chain strategy. ASML Just Delivered Excellent News for Micron Stock Investors Neutral Sentiment: Several analysts continue to describe the retreat as a potential buying opportunity, citing Micron’s valuation and earnings growth. However, bullish price targets depend on memory demand remaining strong and the current pricing cycle lasting longer than expected. Negative Sentiment: Investors remain concerned that CXMT’s progress in DDR5, LPDDR5X, and server memory could pressure pricing and market share, particularly in conventional memory. A possible industry oversupply later this decade adds to the cyclical risk. Memory stocks are getting hammered Negative Sentiment: The broader AI trade is under pressure as investors question whether data-center spending can generate adequate returns and whether highly leveraged “neocloud” companies can remain viable. Higher inflation and the prospect of additional interest-rate increases are also encouraging rotation away from expensive technology stocks. Negative Sentiment: One senior executive sold 6,328 Micron shares on October 14. The transaction appears isolated and is small relative to the company, but it adds a modest negative signal during an already weak trading period. Monster insider trading alert for Micron stock (Free Report)
Micron Technology, Inc is a semiconductor company that develops and manufactures memory and storage solutions. Its product portfolio includes dynamic random-access memory (DRAM), NAND flash memory, three-dimensional XPoint-related technologies, solid-state drives, and high-bandwidth memory products designed for demanding computing applications.
The company serves customers across the data center, artificial intelligence, networking, automotive, industrial, mobile, consumer electronics, and embedded markets.
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Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU – Get Free Report) and GlobalFoundries (NASDAQ:GFS – Get Free Report) are both large-cap technology companies, but which is the better stock? We will compare the two businesses based on the strength of their profitability, analyst recommendations, dividends, valuation, risk, institutional ownership and earnings.
Dividends Micron Technology pays an annual dividend of $0.60 per share and has a dividend yield of 0.1%. GlobalFoundries pays an annual dividend of $0.48 per share and has a dividend yield of 1.0%. Micron Technology pays out 0.8% of its earnings in the form of a dividend. GlobalFoundries pays out 37.5% of its earnings in the form of a dividend. Both companies have healthy payout ratios and should be able to cover their dividend payments with earnings for the next several years.
Earnings and Valuation This table compares Micron Technology and GlobalFoundries”s gross revenue, earnings per share and valuation.
Gross Revenue Price/Sales Ratio Net Income Earnings Per Share Price/Earnings Ratio Micron Technology $133.19 billion 7.47 $84.97 billion $74.21 11.84 GlobalFoundries $6.79 billion 3.77 $885.00 million $1.28 36.47 Micron Technology has higher revenue and earnings than GlobalFoundries. Micron Technology is trading at a lower price-to-earnings ratio than GlobalFoundries, indicating that it is currently the more affordable of the two stocks.
Analyst Recommendations This is a summary of current recommendations and price targets for Micron Technology and GlobalFoundries, as provided by MarketBeat.com.
Sell Ratings Hold Ratings Buy Ratings Strong Buy Ratings Rating Score Micron Technology 0 4 41 1 2.93 GlobalFoundries 2 10 8 0 2.30 Micron Technology currently has a consensus price target of $1,407.88, indicating a potential upside of 60.20%. GlobalFoundries has a consensus price target of $75.79, indicating a potential upside of 62.36%. Given GlobalFoundries’ higher probable upside, analysts plainly believe GlobalFoundries is more favorable than Micron Technology.
Profitability This table compares Micron Technology and GlobalFoundries’ net margins, return on equity and return on assets.
Net Margins Return on Equity Return on Assets Micron Technology 63.80% 92.62% 66.29% GlobalFoundries 10.36% 6.69% 4.69% Institutional & Insider Ownership 80.8% of Micron Technology shares are held by institutional investors. 0.2% of Micron Technology shares are held by insiders. Strong institutional ownership is an indication that hedge funds, endowments and large money managers believe a stock is poised for long-term growth.
Risk & Volatility Micron Technology has a beta of 2.22, indicating that its share price is 122% more volatile than the S&P 500. Comparatively, GlobalFoundries has a beta of 1.77, indicating that its share price is 77% more volatile than the S&P 500.
Summary Micron Technology beats GlobalFoundries on 14 of the 17 factors compared between the two stocks.
(Get Free Report)
Micron Technology, Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, and sells memory and storage products worldwide. The company operates through four segments: Compute and Networking Business Unit, Mobile Business Unit, Embedded Business Unit, and Storage Business Unit. It provides memory and storage technologies comprising dynamic random access memory semiconductor devices with low latency that provide high-speed data retrieval; non-volatile and re-writeable semiconductor storage devices; and non-volatile re-writable semiconductor memory devices that provide fast read speeds under the Micron and Crucial brands, as well as through private labels. The company offers memory products for the cloud server, enterprise, client, graphics, networking, industrial, and automotive markets, as well as for smartphone and other mobile-device markets; SSDs and component-level solutions for the enterprise and cloud, client, and consumer storage markets; discrete storage products in component and wafers; and memory and storage products for the automotive, industrial, and consumer markets. It markets its products through its direct sales force, independent sales representatives, distributors, and retailers; and web-based customer direct sales channel, as well as through channel and distribution partners. Micron Technology, Inc. was founded in 1978 and is headquartered in Boise, Idaho.
About GlobalFoundries (Get Free Report)
GlobalFoundries Inc., a semiconductor foundry, provides range of mainstream wafer fabrication services and technologies worldwide. It manufactures various semiconductor devices, including microprocessors, mobile application processors, baseband processors, network processors, radio frequency modems, microcontrollers, and power management units. GlobalFoundries Inc. has a strategic partnership with Efficient Computer to develop high-performance computer processors. The company was incorporated in 2008 and is headquartered in Malta, New York.
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Many investors probably feel like they missed out on Micron Technology (MU -5.63%). The memory-chip maker's stock is up about 382% over the past year, outperforming the S&P 500's 16%.
But one reason the stock could still make new highs is simple: more of Micron's future demand is already locked in with strategic customer agreements. On the Sept. 30, 2026, earnings call, CEO Sanjay Mehrotra said, "These multi-year take-or-pay agreements sharpen our long-term supply planning and enhance the durability and predictability of our strong financial performance."
Image source: Getty Images.
Micron has signed 26 long-term agreements with customers. These agreements will cover more than a third of its revenue through 2030. The take-or-pay structure means customers pay whether or not they take delivery.
A large portion of high bandwidth memory -- the fast memory chips that feed data to AI chips -- is already sold out for 2027. Importantly, Mehrotra said next year's volume is commanding prices "much higher than 2026 prices."
MU Micron Technology$878.84-$52.40 (-5.63%)
NASDAQ · As of 4:00 PM ET 10/16/26
That visibility shows up in the company's guidance. Micron expects revenue of about $61.5 billion in its current fiscal quarter, up from $54 billion in the previous quarter, with a high gross profit margin of 86%. Management expects fiscal 2027 to be another record year, with revenue growing every quarter.
Memory is a famously boom-and-bust business, and Micron is spending heavily to add capacity, so memory prices could fall if supply catches up with demand. But that's not likely to happen for at least a few more years. Mehrotra expects supply-demand conditions to be even tighter through 2028 than they were in 2026.
The stock trades at just over 5 times Wall Street's fiscal 2027 earnings estimates, as of Oct. 14, 2026. That is a low valuation for a company that analysts expect to more than double earnings per share to $176 in fiscal 2027, and increase another 17% to $206 in fiscal 2028. For investors who can tolerate a volatile stock, the positive outlook for demand and low forward P/E could support new highs over the next few years.
John Ballard has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Micron Technology. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Key Takeaways The Q3 earnings season has started off a bit mixed, though initial results are heavily weighted to Finance. Earnings for the 45 S&P 500 members that have reported so far are up 46.3% YoY on 13.9% higher revenues. 73 S&P 500 members are on deck to report in the coming week, including Mag 7 members TSLA and META. We get into the heart of the Q3 earnings season this week, with more than 250 companies reporting results, including 73 S&P 500 members. By the end of this week, we will have seen Q3 results from 118 S&P 500 members, or almost a quarter of the index’s total membership.
We are off to a bit of a mixed start in the Q3 reporting cycle, with the growth pace and the revenue-beat percentage tracking modestly lower relative to the recent past. That said, the sample of results from the 9% of S&P 500 members that have reported is heavily weighted toward the Finance sector, and these initial mixed trends may shift as we head into the heart of the earnings season in the days ahead.
This week’s line-up of earnings releases is comprised of a fairly representative cohort of bellwether operators from a broad mix of sectors and industries, including two of the Mag 7 players, Meta Platforms and Tesla, and several other Tech players like Netflix, Texas Instruments, IBM, Spotify, and others. We will get results from air carriers (United, American, Southwest), railroad operators (CSX, Union Pacific), credit card issuers (American Express, Capital One, Synchrony), and many other blue chips like Procter & Gamble, GM, AT&T, Halliburton, and others.
We will have a definitive sense of how good or otherwise the Q3 earnings season has been by the end of this week.
Looking at overall expectations for the quarter, combining the actual results from the 45 S&P 500 members that have reported already with estimates for the still-to-come companies, Q3 earnings are currently expected to increase by +24.6% from the same period last year on +11.7% higher revenues, the 8th straight quarter of double-digit earnings growth for the index.
The Tech sector remains a major growth contributor, but momentum is broad-based, with 14 of the 16 Zacks sectors on track for positive earnings growth in Q3. Importantly, the revisions trend remains positive and broad-based, highlighting a steadily improving outlook.
The quarterly chart below details actual results alongside Q3 2026 growth expectations and forward projections.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
As noted earlier, the revisions trend has been positive, sustaining the favorable trend in place for almost a year. Estimates for Q3 increased after the quarter got underway, and we are seeing a similar trend at play for 2026 Q4 estimates, as the chart below shows.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
This positive revisions behavior is not a new development; it extends a tailwind that has been building for nearly a year. The positive revisions were at first concentrated in Technology and, more recently, Energy, following Middle East supply disruptions. However, for 2026 Q4 and also what we saw for Q3, the constructive estimate revisions have broadened significantly, rising across 7 of the 16 Zacks sectors—including Aerospace, Construction, Industrials, Finance, and Transportation alongside Tech and Energy.
On the negative side, Q4 estimates remain under pressure for these 8 sectors – Conglomerates, Autos, Basic Materials, Consumer Staples, Consumer Discretionary, Medical, Business Services, and Retail. It is important to note that estimates for full-year 2027 have also been trending higher.
Sector Focus: Broad-Based Strength
Q3 earnings are expected to be above the year-earlier level for 14 of the 16 Zacks sectors, with 5 sectors expected to enjoy double-digit growth. The Conglomerates and Consumer Staples sectors are the only ones expected to have lower earnings in Q3 relative to the same period last year.
The 5 sectors expected to enjoy double-digit earnings growth in Q3 are Aerospace (up +160.5%), Energy (+122.2%), Tech (+43.7%), Basic Materials (+29.5%), Transportation (+9.6%), and Industrial Products (+13.5%).
Q3 earnings growth for the S&P 500 index drops to +20.1% from +24.6% once the Energy sector’s contribution is excluded from the index. Excluding the Tech sector, Q3 earnings growth for the rest of the index drops to +14.4%.
For the Finance sector, which has dominated the reporting docket thus far, Q3 earnings are expected to be up +7.3% from the same period last year on +6.3% higher revenues.
With Meta (META - Free Report) and Tesla (TSLA - Free Report) on deck to report results this week, it is useful to take a look at expectations for the Mag 7 group as a whole. The expectation is that Q3 earnings for the Mag 7 will increase by +20.9% on +22.8% higher revenues, as the chart below shows.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Excluding the Mag 7 group’s contribution, Q3 earnings for the rest of the index would actually modestly improve to +25.8% (from +24.6%).
The chart below shows quarterly earnings and revenue growth expectations for the Tech sector as a whole.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Q3 earnings and revenue growth rate drops to +21.1% from +43.7% once the substantial contributions from Nvidia (NVDA - Free Report) , Micron (MU - Free Report) , and Alphabet (GOOGL - Free Report) are excluded, as the chart below shows.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Q3 Earnings Season Scorecard
Through Friday, October 16th, we have seen Q3 results from 45 S&P 500 members, or 9% of the index’s total membership. Total earnings for these companies are up +46.3% from the same period last year on +13.9% higher revenues, with 82.2% beating EPS estimates and 62.2% beating revenue estimates.
The comparison charts below show the earnings and revenue growth rates for these companies compared to other recent periods.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The very strong earnings and revenue growth pace for this group of 45 S&P 500 members is mostly due to Micron, whose Q3 earnings increased +1075.7% from the year-earlier level. Excluding Micron, Q3 earnings for the remaining 44 index members that have reported would be up +10.4%.
The chart below shows the Q3 earnings growth pace for the companies that have reported, with and without Micron, across recent periods.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The comparison charts below show the Q3 EPS and revenue beats percentages for these companies compared to other recent periods.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
For the Finance sector, we now have Q3 results from 44.3% of the sector’s market capitalization in the S&P 500 index. Total earnings for these Finance sector companies are up +10.6% from the same period last year on +8.6% higher revenues, with 80% beating EPS estimates and 50% beating revenue estimates.
The comparison charts below put the Q3 earnings and revenue growth rates in a historical context.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The comparison charts below show the Q3 EPS and revenue beats percentages in a historical context.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
As you can see above, not only are the growth rates tracking below other recent periods, but Finance sector companies also seem to be struggling to beat consensus EPS and revenue estimates.
The Earnings Big Picture
The chart below shows the aggregate growth picture for the S&P 500 index on a calendar year basis.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
As we noted earlier, estimates for full-year 2027 are experiencing the same positive and broad-based revisions trend that we noted earlier in the context of 2026 Q4.
For a detailed view of the evolving earnings picture, please check out our weekly Earnings Trends report here >>>> Broad-Based Growth Meets Banks Caution: The Evolving Q3 Earnings Picture
The memory chip market has a history of being extremely cyclical. This can make investors unwilling to pay more for stocks like Sandisk (SNDK -6.85%) and Micron (MU -5.63%) when the companies are doing well, as the threat of the next inevitable downturn always lurks around the corner. This is why the market often undervalues these stocks relative to their tech sector peers in other niches.
However, we've never seen a demand wave for memory like this, and a major change could shift how the industry acts. So, is this time really different?
Image source: Getty Images.
Different types of memory have different attributes There are two primary types of memory chips: DRAM and NAND. NAND flash memory is slower, retains data even without power, and is used mostly for long-term data storage. Both Sandisk and Micron make NAND, which often goes into solid-state drives that are heavily used in data centers.
DRAM can store and transmit data much more rapidly than NAND, but when the power to a DRAM chip is turned off, the data vanishes. This is the type of memory behind the RAM in computers. A subset of DRAM known as high bandwidth memory (HBM) is widely utilized in AI computing devices like GPUs. Micron also makes DRAM. Sandisk does not.
MU Micron Technology$878.84-$52.40 (-5.63%)
NASDAQ · As of 4:00 PM ET 10/16/26
The question of whether "this time is different" for the memory market really depends on which type of memory you're talking about. When it comes to NAND memory, there isn't much to distinguish one product from another. SSDs are really just SSDs, give or take a few feature sets. So, unless some innovative technology is developed, pricing in this sector will largely be dictated by supply and demand.
Fortunately, demand for memory isn't expected to wane for years, as Micron recently told investors that conditions in the memory chip market will be worse in 2027 and 2028 than in 2026. So the NAND market will still be a great place to invest over the next few years.
The DRAM market, especially in HBM, is starting to evolve. Micron recently signed a deal with Nvidia to develop a custom HBM solution for its GPUs. That's a genuinely transformational change in this industry, as there are likely agreements in place between them that will reduce the commodity-like nature of memory chip pricing. Furthermore, Micron has been entering into strategic agreements with many clients that set longer-term floors and ceilings on memory chip prices. Many of those deals run through 2030 and 2031.
Sandisk is also starting to ink such deals. Its "New Business Model" agreements lock clients into committed sales volumes and structured pricing mechanisms. For its upcoming fiscal year, about 50% of its production volume has been contracted for in this manner, and that share rises to two-thirds in 2028. That's a huge shift, and it validates that these two are using this market reset to move away from the volatile pricing that has long been the norm in the memory space.
SNDK Sandisk$1,299.30-$95.53 (-6.85%)
NASDAQ · As of 4:00 PM ET 10/16/26
This is a major step toward reducing the cyclical nature of these two businesses, and as a result, the market may start to value them more like regular big tech stocks rather than as highly cyclical commodity businesses.
Both are cheaply valued Based on this fiscal year's earnings projections for both stocks, they look cheap.
MU PE Ratio (Forward) data by YCharts.
Most big tech stocks are valued at between 20 and 30 times next year's expected earnings. For these two to reach that range over the next year, they would have to triple or quadruple. It's unclear whether anything like that will happen, but with the cyclical nature of these two companies' businesses starting to fade, I think a repricing of their stocks is in order, making both of them smart buys now.
Micron Technology shares MU fell about 4% on Friday, taking the weekly decline to 10% as investors assessed the potential threat from China’s memory-chip industry and concerns about the sustainability of the artificial intelligence boom.
The stock has retreated from its summer peak of more than $1,200, despite having more than tripled this year.
The recent sell-off followed progress reported by Chinese memory maker ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) on a denser dynamic random access memory (DRAM) architecture known as 4F-squared.
The design could allow manufacturers to fit more memory cells into a smaller area, potentially improving production economics.
CXMT has also indicated plans to introduce server-memory products using the technology by the end of 2026, prompting concerns that Chinese suppliers could eventually expand their presence in the market.
However, analysts argue that the development does not necessarily threaten Micron’s position in high-bandwidth memory (HBM), a specialised technology used in AI servers.
Micron and South Korea’s SK Hynix both fell sharply after CXMT’s announcement.
By Friday, October 16, Micron had lost around 10% for the week, while SK Hynix was down nearly 15%.
The market reaction reflects concerns that advances in Chinese memory manufacturing could increase supply and put pressure on prices.
However, progress in chip design does not automatically translate into competitive mass production.
Citi analysts said CXMT’s manufacturing process remained several generations behind industry leaders.
They estimated that mass production using the new architecture was unlikely before 2028, potentially giving Micron and SK Hynix time to advance their own technologies.
The possibility of additional supply remains a concern, particularly if Chinese manufacturers eventually expand production enough to affect industry pricing.
Fundstrat vice president for market intelligence Kent Fung said CXMT’s new architecture could challenge conventional server DRAM but did not directly compete with the HBM products required for AI servers.
“Investors should consider the possibility that the knee-jerk response to CXMT’s announcement has been a bit of an overreaction,” Fung wrote in a research note on Thursday.
He added that CXMT’s breakthrough had a weaker connection to AI and therefore potentially weaker implications for memory and storage stocks’ growth prospects.
The distinction matters because conventional DRAM serves computers and servers more broadly, while HBM is designed to move data rapidly to AI processors.
CXMT’s progress in conventional memory does not establish that it can immediately challenge the advanced HBM products supplied by Micron and SK Hynix.
Micron’s fiscal 2026 annual report also said AI-driven memory demand was outpacing industry supply, supporting stronger pricing and margins.
KeyBanc analyst John Vinh reiterated a $1,750 price target on Micron and described it as one of his favourite investment ideas following a trip to assess Asian supply chains.
Vinh said DRAM prices in the fourth quarter were expected to rise by 15% to 20% from the previous quarter. He also noted that Google was considering extending long-term memory-supply agreements through 2035.
While Vinh said he did not expect the current memory upcycle to last until 2031 or 2035, he argued that the potential agreements suggested customers were concerned about shortages persisting beyond 2028.
These expectations offer support for Micron’s outlook, although the potential for increased competition remains a risk.
If Chinese suppliers add meaningful capacity, additional supply could weaken memory prices and reduce the returns earned on new factories.
Even without an immediate loss of AI customers, investors could become less willing to pay premium valuations for earnings that may be unusually strong near the peak of a memory-chip cycle.
The outlook therefore depends not only on AI demand but also on how quickly supply expands and how that affects pricing.
Micron (MU -5.63%) has been a great stock to own in 2026, but I'm betting that it goes even higher by 2030. In fact, it could transform a $10,000 investment made today into a $42,000 position by then -- and that's on the conservative side of my estimated range.
That may seem unrealistic, but the company's path forward looks clear.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
Micron has a major growth opportunity on its hands The reason Micron has done so well in 2026 is that memory chip prices are soaring. Essentially, demand is far greater than supply, and new production capacity can't be brought online quickly. Simple economic theory dictates that when market conditions like those occur, the price of the goods being sold skyrockets.
That's exactly what has happened in the memory chip space, and it's going to get worse before it gets better. Micron's management team informed investors that it expects market conditions in 2027 and 2028 to be tighter than they were in 2026, so memory prices could continue to rise. For its fiscal 2027, which began Sept. 4, Wall Street analysts expect Micron to deliver 106% revenue growth. For fiscal 2028, they are only projecting 16% growth, but it's a bit too early to make accurate predictions for that year, particularly considering how volatile the industry is right now. Analysts have also underestimated the AI build-out every step of the way, so I don't think giving weight to their 2028 forecasts is worth it right now.
MU Micron Technology$878.84-$52.40 (-5.63%)
NASDAQ · As of 4:00 PM ET 10/16/26
Micron has signed several long-term sales agreements with clients that will run through 2030; those deals indicate that huge demand for memory chips is on track to persist through the end of the decade, at least. Additionally, Micron has new fabrication facilities opening in mid-2027 and in late 2028 that will increase its production capacity. So, if memory prices stay high and Micron can increase its output, its revenue will continue rising.
For this projection, I'll start with Wall Street's $318 billion revenue projection for fiscal 2027, then assume Micron's revenue will grow at a 30% pace in the following years. That would result in nearly $700 billion in revenue by 2030. Thanks to soaring memory chip prices, Micron's profit margins are also maxed out.
MU Profit Margin data by YCharts.
If we bake a little conservatism into this estimate and assume a long-term profit margin of 60%, that would yield net income of $419 billion by 2030. If we value the company at 20 times trailing earnings (its current price-to-earnings ratio is 13, but cyclical factors heavily influence that), that would result in the stock being valued at $8.4 trillion. That's way larger than the world's largest company is today. Even if we say it would be valued at 10 times earnings, that would result in a $4.19 trillion company.
That would transform $10,000 into nearly $42,000 by 2030, making this stock a no-brainer buy.
Community Financial Services Group LLC acquired a new position in shares of Micron Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ:MU – Free Report) during the 3rd quarter, according to the company in its most recent filing with the Securities & Exchange Commission. The institutional investor acquired 3,542 shares of the semiconductor manufacturer’s stock, valued at approximately $3,887,000.
Several other institutional investors and hedge funds have also recently bought and sold shares of the business. Bullseye Investment Management LLC bought a new position in shares of Micron Technology during the second quarter valued at approximately $27,000. Aventus Investment Advisors Inc. acquired a new stake in shares of Micron Technology during the 3rd quarter worth approximately $30,000. Steph & Co. bought a new stake in shares of Micron Technology in the 3rd quarter worth approximately $31,000. Montgomery Financial Services LLC bought a new stake in shares of Micron Technology in the 2nd quarter worth approximately $38,000. Finally, JNBA Financial Advisors lifted its holdings in shares of Micron Technology by 77.3% in the 2nd quarter. JNBA Financial Advisors now owns 39 shares of the semiconductor manufacturer’s stock worth $45,000 after purchasing an additional 17 shares during the last quarter. Institutional investors and hedge funds own 80.84% of the company’s stock.
Insiders Place Their Bets In other Micron Technology news, EVP Sumit Sadana sold 15,000 shares of the stock in a transaction on Tuesday, August 18th. The stock was sold at an average price of $934.29, for a total transaction of $14,014,350.00. Following the completion of the transaction, the executive vice president directly owned 191,021 shares of the company’s stock, valued at approximately $178,469,010.09. This trade represents a 7.28% decrease in their position. The sale was disclosed in a document filed with the SEC, which can be accessed through this hyperlink. Also, CEO Sanjay Mehrotra sold 40,000 shares of Micron Technology stock in a transaction on Friday, August 21st. The shares were sold at an average price of $968.90, for a total value of $38,756,000.00. Following the transaction, the chief executive officer owned 264,503 shares in the company, valued at approximately $256,276,956.70. This trade represents a 13.14% decrease in their ownership of the stock. Additional details regarding this sale are available in the official SEC disclosure. Insiders sold 95,879 shares of company stock worth $90,939,466 over the last ninety days. Company insiders own 0.24% of the company’s stock.
Micron Technology Stock Up 1.9% MU stock opened at $931.24 on Friday. Micron Technology, Inc. has a 52 week low of $192.40 and a 52 week high of $1,255.00. The company has a market capitalization of $1.05 trillion, a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.55, a price-to-earnings-growth ratio of 0.16 and a beta of 2.22. The firm’s 50-day moving average is $985.86 and its two-hundred day moving average is $861.12. The company has a current ratio of 3.31, a quick ratio of 2.94 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.03. Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU – Get Free Report) last posted its quarterly earnings data on Wednesday, September 30th. The semiconductor manufacturer reported $33.42 earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter, beating the consensus estimate of $31.77 by $1.65. Micron Technology had a net margin of 63.80% and a return on equity of 92.62%. The business had revenue of $54.23 billion during the quarter, compared to analysts’ expectations of $51.33 billion. During the same period last year, the firm posted $3.03 earnings per share. The business’s revenue was up 379.1% on a year-over-year basis. Micron Technology has set its Q1 2027 guidance at 37.150-39.150 EPS. On average, analysts forecast that Micron Technology, Inc. will post 177.03 earnings per share for the current fiscal year.
Micron Technology Dividend Announcement The company also recently announced a quarterly dividend, which will be paid on Thursday, October 29th. Shareholders of record on Wednesday, October 14th will be given a $0.15 dividend. This represents a $0.60 dividend on an annualized basis and a yield of 0.1%. The ex-dividend date is Wednesday, October 14th. Micron Technology’s dividend payout ratio is 0.81%.
Analyst Upgrades and Downgrades A number of research firms recently issued reports on MU. Daiwa Securities Group boosted their price objective on Micron Technology from $1,600.00 to $1,700.00 and gave the company a “buy” rating in a research report on Friday, July 17th. Wedbush reaffirmed an “outperform” rating and issued a $1,400.00 target price on shares of Micron Technology in a research report on Monday, September 28th. Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft reaffirmed a “buy” rating on shares of Micron Technology in a research report on Thursday, October 1st. BMO Capital Markets reiterated an “outperform” rating on shares of Micron Technology in a research note on Thursday, October 1st. Finally, Stifel Nicolaus raised their target price on Micron Technology from $550.00 to $1,500.00 and gave the company a “buy” rating in a research note on Thursday, June 18th. One analyst has rated the stock with a Strong Buy rating, forty-one have issued a Buy rating and four have given a Hold rating to the stock. Based on data from MarketBeat.com, the company presently has a consensus rating of “Moderate Buy” and a consensus price target of $1,407.88.
Read Our Latest Research Report on MU
Key Stories Impacting Micron Technology Here are the key news stories impacting Micron Technology this week:
Positive Sentiment: Micron’s fundamental outlook remains strong. Fiscal 2026 revenue reportedly rose 256% to $133.2 billion, while tight DRAM and HBM supply is supporting significant margin expansion. The company is also accelerating construction of new fabs in Idaho and New York to increase capacity. Prediction: This Is What $2,000 Invested in Micron Stock Today Could Be Worth by 2029 Positive Sentiment: Micron has signed 26 strategic customer agreements with pricing frameworks, helping reduce the traditional memory cycle risk. Its diversified customer base also means no single customer represented at least 10% of fiscal 2026 revenue. Micron’s Customer Contracts Just Took the Memory Cycle Off the Table Positive Sentiment: Analysts and commentators continue to identify MU as a buy-the-dip opportunity, citing AI-driven revenue growth, expanding margins and a lower valuation than some peers. Erste Group also raised its FY2027 earnings estimate, while Rosenblatt reaffirmed a Buy rating. Positive Sentiment: Elon Musk praised Micron’s approach to future memory pricing, and strong demand for AI infrastructure is expected to support high-value HBM shipments. ASML’s reported order backlog through 2030 also reinforces the long-term equipment and HBM demand outlook. ASML Just Delivered Excellent News for Micron Stock Investors Neutral Sentiment: Micron’s market capitalization is trailing several large companies, including Eli Lilly and Berkshire Hathaway, highlighting both the stock’s substantial rally and the possibility that investors are reassessing its valuation after recent volatility. Negative Sentiment: The principal overhang is China’s ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT), which is advancing in DDR5, LPDDR5X and server-memory products. Investors fear that Chinese competition could pressure prices and margins, although analysts note CXMT currently appears more competitive in lower-end memory than in Micron’s premium HBM products. Negative Sentiment: A broader AI and semiconductor sell-off, concerns about a possible memory oversupply by 2029, higher inflation and potential interest-rate increases have contributed to recent selling. Cathie Wood’s warning that memory-chip cycles remain “vicious” underscores the risk that today’s exceptional profits may not persist. (Free Report)
Micron Technology, Inc is a semiconductor company that develops and manufactures memory and storage solutions. Its product portfolio includes dynamic random-access memory (DRAM), NAND flash memory, three-dimensional XPoint-related technologies, solid-state drives, and high-bandwidth memory products designed for demanding computing applications.
The company serves customers across the data center, artificial intelligence, networking, automotive, industrial, mobile, consumer electronics, and embedded markets.
Featured Stories Five stocks we like better than Micron Technology ASML Can’t Keep Up With AI Demand—Why That’s a Good Thing Enovix’s 100,000-Battery Drone Order Sets Up a Test of Its Production Plans AMD’s Support Could Help Fermi Stock Overcome Its Biggest Hurdle Beyond the GPU: Credo Paves the Next AI Data Superhighway Want to see what other hedge funds are holding MU? Visit HoldingsChannel.com to get the latest 13F filings and insider trades for Micron Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ:MU – Free Report).
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Shares of Micron Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ:MU) and South Korea's SK Hynix Inc. (NASDAQ:SKHY) tumbled after Chinese memory maker ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) reported progress on a denser DRAM chip architecture known as 4F-squared.
Key Takeaways Memory stocks fell on CXMT's DRAM news and rate fears, but CXMT has yet to prove it can manufacture at scale. SKHY posted exceptional growth, yet heavy Korea-focused capex could squeeze margins if pricing normalizes. MU's contracted 2027 HBM supply and customer commitments give it better visibility, making it a strong buy.
AI memory stocks like Micron (MU - Free Report) and SK Hynix (SKHY - Free Report) have been among Wall Street’s top performers, fueled by a chip shortage and surging demand. Lately, though, both stocks have come under pressure as investors doubt how long AI-related spending can last and worry about growing competition.
The latest trigger came from China’s ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT), which announced progress over the weekend on a new DRAM architecture. The company claims it could raise memory density by 30-50%, letting more data fit into the same physical space.
Still, the selloff may be overdone. CXMT’s advances could heighten competition down the road, but the company is yet to show it can mass-produce these chips at scale, and established memory makers retain a technological edge.
Additionally, hot inflation print stokes fears of costlier financing for AI data centers.
For investors, this dip could be a buying opportunity rather than a cause for alarm. Over the past five trading sessions, Micron has fallen about 10% and SK Hynix about 13%. Yet one of the two stands out as a clear buy right now. Let’s take a closer look at both stocks to see which one deserves your money today.
The Case for SK HynixAI models need huge amounts of computing power, which in turn drives demand for memory that can shuttle data quickly between processors and storage. SK Hynix has carved out a leading position in high-bandwidth memory (HBM), the chips used in AI accelerators from companies like NVIDIA. Ties with major tech customers give it broad exposure to the AI infrastructure buildout.
The company is also staying ahead of the next phase of the cycle. Mass shipments of its latest HBM4 have begun, with output set to ramp through the rest of the year. Samples of the upgraded HBM4E are already out, underscoring its push to protect its technology edge.
The numbers show how strong demand has been. Second-quarter 2026 revenues reached 79.32 trillion won, up 257% year over year, while operating profit jumped 557% to 60.54 trillion won.
The balance sheet is solid too, with roughly 88 trillion won in cash at quarter-end. In August, SK Hynix unveiled a 40-trillion-won ($28.7 billion) buyback-and-cancellation program and said it intends to return over half of its 2025-2027 cumulative free cash flow to shareholders.
It is also expanding capacity, planning about 54 trillion won ($38 billion) of domestic memory investment plus a $4 billion U.S. packaging facility. These moves could help it capture more demand, but execution and heavy capital spending remain key concerns.
Take a look at how SK Hynix’s EPS estimates have moved over the past 60 days.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Case for MicronMicron wrapped up fiscal 2026 with record revenues, high margins and strong cash generation, and the outlook looks even better. For the fiscal first quarter of 2027, it expects revenues of $61.5 billion (plus or minus $1.5 billion) and adjusted EPS of $38.15 (plus or minus $1). That implies roughly 351% revenue growth and 698% earnings growth year over year.
HBM is a key driver. In the fiscal fourth quarter, HBM revenues outpaced Micron’s overall growth, and most of its 2027 HBM supply is already contracted at notably higher prices. The HBM4 ramp is on track, and the company is developing a custom HBM4E solution with NVIDIA.
NAND is a second engine. Data center SSD revenues neared $10 billion in the last reported quarter, more than 10 times the prior year, as applications like KV-cache offload boost demand for fast storage. Longer term, autonomous vehicles and humanoid robots should require far more memory and storage than today’s devices.
Micron is also working to make this upcycle last. It has signed 26 Strategic Customer Agreements, expected to make up over 35% of revenues through 2030. Customer financial commitments have grown to $32 billion, mostly as cash deposits.
New capacity is coming across the United States, Singapore, Japan and Taiwan, with Singapore HBM packaging starting in early 2027 and the ID1 fab in mid-2027. Heavy capital spending and slower price increases are risks, but the long-term story looks intact.
Take a look at how Micron’s EPS estimates have moved over the past 60 days.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Our TakeBoth companies are riding the same AI-memory cycle, but Micron offers the better risk-adjusted entry. Most of its 2027 HBM supply is already contracted at higher prices, backed by customer commitments under long-term strategic agreements. SK Hynix’s results are exceptional, but it is more levered to the upcycle, and its largely Korea-centered expansion, with 2026 capex expected in the high KRW 40 trillion range, would magnify margin pressure if HBM or DRAM pricing normalizes before new capacity is fully utilized. Meanwhile, Micron’s NAND diversification and broader manufacturing footprint add resilience.
Between the two stocks, Micron has a clear edge and makes a compelling long-term buy. MU has a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) and a VGM Score of A, while SKHY has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) and a VGM Score of C.
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks Rank #1 stocks here.
WASHINGTON--(BUSINESS WIRE)--A cross-practice team at Sterne, Kessler, Goldstein & Fox served as U.S. International Trade Commission and Federal Circuit counsel to Netlist, Inc. in a series of patent disputes with Micron Technology, Inc. After several years of litigation, Netlist has reached a comprehensive settlement agreement with Micron. Under the agreements, Micron will receive a five-year term license to Netlist's patent portfolio, including patents covering server DIMMs and High Bandw.
Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of MU either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given that any particular security, portfolio, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. The author is not advising you personally concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security or other matter. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether any investment, security or strategy, or any product or service, is appropriate or suitable for you based on your investment objectives and personal and financial situation. Steven Cress is the Head of Quantitative Strategy at Seeking Alpha. Any views or opinions expressed herein may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank.
Micron (MU - Free Report) has been one of the most searched-for stocks on Zacks.com lately. So, you might want to look at some of the facts that could shape the stock's performance in the near term.
Over the past month, shares of this chipmaker have returned -4.7%, compared to the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +1.4% change. During this period, the Zacks Computer - Integrated Systems industry, which Micron falls in, has gained 2.9%. The key question now is: What could be the stock's future direction?
Although media reports or rumors about a significant change in a company's business prospects usually cause its stock to trend and lead to an immediate price change, there are always certain fundamental factors that ultimately drive the buy-and-hold decision.
Revisions to Earnings EstimatesRather than focusing on anything else, we at Zacks prioritize evaluating the change in a company's earnings projection. This is because we believe the fair value for its stock is determined by the present value of its future stream of earnings.
We essentially look at how sell-side analysts covering the stock are revising their earnings estimates to reflect the impact of the latest business trends. And if earnings estimates go up for a company, the fair value for its stock goes up. A higher fair value than the current market price drives investors' interest in buying the stock, leading to its price moving higher. This is why empirical research shows a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and near-term stock price movements.
Micron is expected to post earnings of $38.20 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +699.2%. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed +9.8%.
For the current fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of $177.73 points to a change of +135.3% from the prior year. Over the last 30 days, this estimate has changed +12%.
For the next fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of $211.82 indicates a change of +19.2% from what Micron is expected to report a year ago. Over the past month, the estimate has changed +11.9%.
With an impressive externally audited track record, our proprietary stock rating tool -- the Zacks Rank -- is a more conclusive indicator of a stock's near-term price performance, as it effectively harnesses the power of earnings estimate revisions. The size of the recent change in the consensus estimate, along with three other factors related to earnings estimates, has resulted in a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) for Micron.
The chart below shows the evolution of the company's forward 12-month consensus EPS estimate:
12 Month EPS
Revenue Growth ForecastWhile earnings growth is arguably the most superior indicator of a company's financial health, nothing happens as such if a business isn't able to grow its revenues. After all, it's nearly impossible for a company to increase its earnings for an extended period without increasing its revenues. So, it's important to know a company's potential revenue growth.
For Micron, the consensus sales estimate for the current quarter of $61.76 billion indicates a year-over-year change of +352.7%. For the current and next fiscal years, $275.11 billion and $332.98 billion estimates indicate +106.6% and +21% changes, respectively.
Last Reported Results and Surprise HistoryMicron reported revenues of $54.23 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +379.3%. EPS of $33.42 for the same period compares with $3.03 a year ago.
Compared to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $51 billion, the reported revenues represent a surprise of +6.32%. The EPS surprise was +5.73%.
The company beat consensus EPS estimates in each of the trailing four quarters. The company topped consensus revenue estimates each time over this period.
ValuationWithout considering a stock's valuation, no investment decision can be efficient. In predicting a stock's future price performance, it's crucial to determine whether its current price correctly reflects the intrinsic value of the underlying business and the company's growth prospects.
While comparing the current values of a company's valuation multiples, such as price-to-earnings (P/E), price-to-sales (P/S), and price-to-cash flow (P/CF), with its own historical values helps determine whether its stock is fairly valued, overvalued, or undervalued, comparing the company relative to its peers on these parameters gives a good sense of the reasonability of the stock's price.
As part of the Zacks Style Scores system, the Zacks Value Style Score (which evaluates both traditional and unconventional valuation metrics) organizes stocks into five groups ranging from A to F (A is better than B; B is better than C; and so on), making it helpful in identifying whether a stock is overvalued, rightly valued, or temporarily undervalued.
Micron is graded B on this front, indicating that it is trading at a discount to its peers. Click here to see the values of some of the valuation metrics that have driven this grade.
ConclusionThe facts discussed here and much other information on Zacks.com might help determine whether or not it's worthwhile paying attention to the market buzz about Micron. However, its Zacks Rank #1 does suggest that it may outperform the broader market in the near term.
Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of MU either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.
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On October 14, Micron (NASDAQ: MU) recorded its first insider stock sale since late August, as Senior Vice President and Chief Legal Officer (CLO) Michael Ray offloaded 6,328 MU shares.
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This signal is triggered upon the reporting of the trade to the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
Specifically, the October 15 Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filing revealed that the CLO dumped the equity across two trades of vastly different scales, with the larger one executed at an average price of $929.64 and the smaller at $947.29.
Indeed, Michael Ray disclosed selling 6,288 Micron shares for a total of $5.84 million at the lower price, and another 40 at the higher for a total of $37,892.
Notably, the value of these latest insider trades is similar to the CLO’s previous 2026 MU stock dumps. On January 27, he sold 12,268 shares for $5 million, and on May 1, he dumped 7,601 for $4 million.
This is the biggest Micron stock insider trader in terms of selling in 2026 Meanwhile, despite being responsible for the most recent such stock market maneuvers, Ray is neither the largest nor the most frequent Micron insider trader.
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This signal is triggered upon the reporting of the trade to the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
Instead, President and CEO Sanjay Mehrotra is responsible for the vast majority of volume. Across eight trades – all executed in a relatively short period between May and August – he sold roughly 200,000 MU shares worth a total of approximately $180 million.
Latest Micron stock insider trade timing Lastly, Ray’s insider sales came on the same day that Micron stock recorded its lowest closing price of any day in the last month of trading – $914.13.
Furthermore, MU shares recorded a relatively strong 1.87% recovery during the October 15 session, and met the latest evening bell at $931.24, while even the Friday pre-market downturn failed to take them as low.
Micron stock price one-month chart. Source: Google At press time on October 16, Micron stock is changing hands at $919.20, leaving it nearly flat on the 30-day chart, though still at a price nearly three times higher than it was at the start of 2026.
Featured image via Shutterstock
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Micron Technology (MU +1.87%) hit its closing high of $1,213.56 on June 25, the day after the memory maker posted its fiscal third-quarter results. On Oct. 14, the stock ended at $914.13 -- around 25% below that record and its lowest close since Aug. 24.
Still, the company has beaten the outlook management gave on June 24, and Micron now sees tighter memory supply through fiscal 2028.
I think the drop has more to do with where memory prices are heading than with anything going wrong at Micron. And at this price, the stock already reflects a lot of that risk.
Image source: Micron.
Micron has beaten its own June outlookWhen Micron reported in June, management called for fiscal fourth-quarter revenue of $50 billion, plus or minus $1 billion, and around $31 in non-GAAP (adjusted) earnings per share. The company posted $54.2 billion in revenue and $33.42 in adjusted earnings per share in the quarter, which ended Sept. 3.
Both numbers topped the high end of management's guidance.
Showing how fast the business has grown, Micron's revenue climbed from $23.9 billion in fiscal Q2 to $41.5 billion in fiscal Q3 before reaching $54.2 billion in fiscal Q4. Also, management now forecasts around $61.5 billion in revenue for the first quarter of fiscal 2027, with adjusted per-share earnings of about $38. That per-share forecast is around 23% above the one investors had when the stock set its record.
Management's view of memory supply has become tighter, too. In June, it said it expected industry supply "to improve gradually in 2028."
"Industry demand has strengthened since our last earnings call, and we expect memory and storage supply-demand conditions to be much tighter in fiscal 2027 and 2028 than they were in 2026," CEO Sanjay Mehrotra said in his prepared remarks for the Sept. 30 call.
Customers have also committed to more of that demand. As Micron signed more multi-year supply deals, the contracted revenue it hadn't recognized yet (based on minimum prices) rose from over $5 billion at the end of fiscal Q3 to around $134 billion at the end of fiscal Q4.
The stock is pricing a slower boomYet the pace of price increases has slowed. Micron's DRAM prices rose by a high-teens percentage from the previous quarter in fiscal Q4, down from a gain in the low 60s in fiscal Q3. Mark Murphy, Micron's chief financial officer, said the company expects "a more moderate rate of price increases" for the rest of fiscal 2027.
Spending's growing, too. Capital expenditures were around $27.4 billion in fiscal 2026. For the first half of fiscal 2027 alone, Micron expects around $25 billion, plus more in the second half. Most of the increase over its earlier plan is construction, mainly to speed up new cleanroom space (the factory floors where chips get made) for late calendar 2028 and beyond.
Memory booms tend to end when new supply catches up to demand. So slower price rises and a bigger building plan can look like early signs of a turn, even if that turn is years off.
Micron's rivals are working on more supply, too. Chinese memory maker CXMT said on Oct. 10 that it plans to launch a new generation of server memory based on a denser chip design by the end of 2026. I think worries like these, more than anything in Micron's results, explain the drop.
The sell-off has sent the stock's valuation down sharply. At its record close, Micron traded at about 27 times the earnings it had reported over the prior four quarters. It now trades around 12 times its fiscal 2026 earnings of $74.33 per share. That full year, of course, has two quarters when Micron earned under $13 a share.
On analysts' fiscal 2027 estimates, the stock trades closer to 5 times earnings.
MU Micron Technology$931.24+$17.11 (+1.87%)
NASDAQ · As of 4:00 PM ET 10/15/26
Investors, in other words, are paying a price that assumes these profits won't last. Yes, that may prove true in time. After all, memory is a cyclical business. But it's a much lower price than investors paid in June for a company that has since beaten its own plan.
A few days ago, with the stock around $983, I said I'd consider buying shares before Micron's next report. Nothing since then has changed how I see the business, and the stock closed about 7% lower on Oct. 14.
So, is Micron a buy 25% below its record? I think so, for investors willing to buy and hold for the long haul -- through all the volatility. A memory stock can keep dropping for a while even when its results look great.
Micron (MU +1.87%) has been one of the biggest winners of the AI era.
Over the last year, the stock is up roughly 400%, and over the last three years, the stock has jumped 1,250%. Like other memory stocks, Micron has benefited from a shortage in memory chips, which has driven up prices and sent sector stocks soaring across the board. Among the winners are SK Hynix, Samsung, and Sandisk.
However, in recent months, some doubts have emerged about the memory boom. Micron stock peaked following its fiscal third-quarter earnings report and has struggled to return to that level, despite another blowout earnings report in September.
Micron's recent results are about as strong as any company in history. It just reported 379% revenue growth to $54.2 billion with an operating margin of 80.7%. Operating income jumped 1,100% to 43.8%.
Micron's operating income in its most recent quarter ranks above Apple, Alphabet, and Microsoft, and it's extraordinarily rare for any company to report an operating margin as high as 80%, meaning the company keeps four of every five dollars it earns in revenue, before interest and taxes. The spike in memory prices and surging demand are the primary reasons for those bumper results.
However, those numbers weren't enough to please investors, as the market is wary of the history of cyclicality in the memory sector, and they are betting that Micron's profits will come down significantly once the supply crunch eases.
The stock is now down 23% from its all-time high in June. Let's take a look at the stock's history to make an educated guess at what happens next.
Image source: Micron.
What history says about Micron In recent history, Micron has a strong track record at bouncing back from sell-offs like the current one. As you can see from the chart below, five times in the last decade, Micron has fallen by more than 23%, and each time the stock has recovered to an all-time high or near one.
MU data by YCharts
Looking at that chart, you can see that it sometimes takes Micron years to recover from 30%, 40%, or 50%, but it always does. That period includes multiple cycles in the memory sector, including 2022-2023, when Micron was losing billions of dollars a year due to a glut.
However, taking a longer view of history, the results are less encouraging.
MU data by YCharts
As you can see, the stock plunged following its peak during the dot-com boom, and didn't return to that level for another 20 years. For much of that time, Micron stock was down 80% or even 90% from its previous peak.
According to traditional valuation metrics, the stock wasn't even that expensive during its dot-com rally. Its price-to-sales ratio was about 8, near where it is today. Micron's price-to-earnings ratio was higher than it is today, and its EPS peaked shortly after the stock peaked, trending lower as the tech sector went bust.
MU Micron Technology$931.24+$17.11 (+1.87%)
NASDAQ · As of 4:00 PM ET 10/15/26
Is the past prologue? In investing, history can be informative, but it doesn't necessarily predict the future. Micron has gone through cycles before and seen prices fluctuate wildly, but some things are different now.
First, the company has locked in a significant percentage of its revenue through 2030 with strategic customer agreements, which should help buffer the downturn in the cycle when it comes.
Second, the AI boom still appears to be in its early stages. Future products like robotics will demand memory chips, and that, along with the growth of data centers, means that unit demand for memory has been forever changed. While prices will fluctuate, AI represents a sea change for the industry, which likely means the business won't return to pre-AI levels.
Third, Micron is betting on itself by investing $100 billion in a new megafab complex in upstate New York, which will be the largest chip manufacturing facility in the U.S. With supply constrained for at least the next couple of years, the new facility will put Micron in position to compete for growing memory demand as its competitors add capacity as well.
Micron has never grown this fast before or been this profitable, and the stock is also cheap at a forward P/E of less than 6. History won't tell us the shape of this cycle, though we know that Micron's prices and margins will eventually come down. Still, its strategic customer agreements and the growth of AI will support the long-term success of the business.
As Micron has done every time in the last decade, I expect it to recover from the current drawdown.
Micron Technology (MU +1.87%) just closed out one of the strangest, most extraordinary fiscal years a chipmaker has ever posted. Revenue in its fiscal 2026 hit $133.2 billion, up 256% from the year before, earnings soared almost tenfold from $7.59 per share to $74.33 per share, and the company went from an afterthought in most portfolios to a roughly $1.1 trillion megacap in the space of about 18 months.
I feel like I've spent the entire year checking this ticker, only to see the stock post consistently breathtaking gains. Before getting into what $2,000 invested in it today might look like in 2029, it's worth understanding exactly what this company is up to. Let's get into what's driving these numbers that large, because it isn't hype. It's a genuine, physical shortage of the memory chips that AI data centers need in growing amounts.
MU Micron Technology$931.24+$17.11 (+1.87%)
NASDAQ · As of 4:00 PM ET 10/15/26
What Micron actually reported this fall Micron's fiscal fourth-quarter results showed revenue of $54.23 billion, up 31% sequentially and 379% year over year. That marked the company's sixth consecutive quarterly revenue record. Non-GAAP earnings per share came in at $33.42, up from $3.03 in the prior-year period, and for the fiscal year, gross margin expanded to 81.1%, a 40-percentage-point jump from fiscal 2025. DRAM revenue alone topped $100 billion for the year, with fourth-quarter DRAM sales up 343% from a year earlier. Management is guiding for first-quarter fiscal 2027 revenue to land between $60 billion and $63 billion, meaning it expects the boom to keep accelerating.
Image source: Getty Images.
This fall, the headline product news centers on HBM4, the latest-generation high-bandwidth memory that sits directly inside AI accelerators. Micron announced what it's calling the industry's first custom HBM4E implementation, developed specifically for Nvidia's (NVDA -1.84%) next-generation GPUs and NVLink Fusion platforms. The deal between them locks Micron into Nvidia's roadmap rather than leaving it to compete for generic orders. This is super bullish for Micron and a strong reason the stock has experienced gains of nearly 400% over the last year.
NVDA Nvidia$217.23-$4.07 (-1.84%)
NASDAQ · As of 4:00 PM ET 10/15/26
CEO Sanjay Mehrotra described a strong multiyear roadmap for future HBM products, and the company is simultaneously racing to build foundry capacity to keep up: It's pushing construction of a second fab in Idaho and broke ground on its first New York fab in January, part of a manufacturing build-out now backed by more than $6 billion in CHIPS Act funding.
Something to think about The memory chip business has always been brutally cyclical, and most of Micron's current numbers reflect price growth more than volume growth. DRAM and NAND contract prices have surged dramatically this year as Samsung, SK Hynix (SKHY -0.98%), and Micron -- the three largest players in the space by far -- all redirected production capacity toward high-margin HBM instead of ordinary memory, creating a supply squeeze that's pushed prices for all types of memory to levels this industry has never sustained for long.
All three are constructing new fab capacity, but that isn't expected to meaningfully ease the squeeze until 2027 or later. Historically, when that kind of production boost eventually arrives, supply catches up to demand and generally surpasses it, at which point prices fall hard. Whether this cycle breaks that pattern because the new demand driven by the AI trend is structurally different is the real question behind any 2029 prediction.
Math to consider Micron trades at around $950 a share today, down from an all-time high of $1,213 reached in June. In a bull case, I'd assume AI-driven memory demand stays structurally elevated through 2029, with revenue growing to around $190 billion and the market still willing to pay close to 8 times sales given Micron's locked-in HBM relationships. That implies a market cap near $1.5 trillion and a share price around $1,330, pushing that original $2,000 to roughly $2,690.
In a more conservative, historically grounded case, new supply from Micron's own expanding foundry operation and those of its competitors eventually catches up to demand sometime around 2028, memory prices normalize, and the company's revenue settles back closer to $100 billion with the multiple compressing to a more typical cyclical semiconductor level of around 5 times sales. That implies a market cap near $500 billion and a share price closer to $440, which would leave that initial $2,000 investment worth roughly $890.
Key Takeaways Micron and SanDisk's recent selloff appears overdone amid concerns about Chinese competition.Rising earnings estimates reinforce the bullish outlook for both memory-chip stocks.Attractive valuations could make the recent pullback an ideal buying opportunity.
Shares of Micron Technology (MU - Free Report) ) and SanDisk Corporation (SNDK - Free Report) ) have come under significant selling pressure this week as investors worry about intensifying competition from China's ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT).
However, the selloff appears overdone, particularly as CXMT's reported advancements in memory-chip technology have yet to demonstrate commercial viability at scale.
While increased competition could eventually pressure memory pricing, Micron and SanDisk remain well-positioned to benefit from surging artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure demand.
With earnings estimates trending higher and valuations remaining remarkably attractive, the recent pullback could present an ideal buying opportunity.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Micron vs. SanDisk: Different Memory Chip Strengths & CompetitorsAlthough both companies benefit from the AI memory boom, their exposure differs.
Micron offers a more diversified portfolio, producing dynamic random-access memory (DRAM), high-bandwidth memory (HBM), and NAND flash memory. Its HBM chips are particularly important for AI accelerators, including those from Nvidia (NVDA - Free Report) ), while its NAND products support rapidly expanding data-center storage needs.
Meanwhile, SanDisk is a more concentrated play on NAND flash memory and solid-state drives (SSDs), which are increasingly essential for storing and retrieving the enormous amounts of data generated by AI applications.
Notably, CXMT's latest breakthrough involves DRAM technology, making it a more direct competitive threat to Micron than SanDisk, whose primary Chinese competition comes from NAND manufacturer Yangtze Memory Technologies (YMTC).
That said, YMTC's competitive threat to SanDisk's higher-value enterprise storage business remains somewhat limited by U.S. trade restrictions and its greater concentration in China's domestic and consumer-oriented NAND markets.
Tracking the Trend of EPS RevisionsMost importantly to the buy-the-dip scenario is that Wall Street's earnings outlook for both companies remains encouraging despite the recent selloff.
Micron's current fiscal 2027 earnings estimates have climbed more than 12% over the past month, with the Zacks Consensus now calling for EPS to surge 135% year over year to $177.73.
Plus, FY28 EPS is projected to increase another 19% to $211.82, with estimates up nearly 12% in the last 30 days as well from $189.28 per share, despite a slight dip in the last week from $212.99.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Meanwhile, the Zacks Consensus indicates SanDisk’s EPS could more than triple from its FY26 levels to $213.31 per share.
Better still, FY28 EPS is projected to rise another 18% to $252.80. Furthermore, FY27 and FY28 EPS estimates are still modestly higher in the last 60 days.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Rising Earnings Estimates Support Attractive ValuationsRemarkably, MU and SNDK are trading at under 7X forward earnings, leaving both stocks at substantial discounts to the broader technology sector and the S&P 500.
While investors have historically assigned lower valuation multiples to memory-chip producers because of their cyclical earnings and volatile pricing, these discounts look increasingly compelling given the extraordinary demand for AI memory and storage.
Longer-term customer agreements could also help both companies reduce some of the earnings volatility traditionally associated with the memory industry.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Bottom LineDespite legitimate concerns about Chinese competition and the sustainability of memory-chip pricing, the recent selloff in Micron and SanDisk stock appears excessive relative to their underlying growth prospects.
Encouragingly, MU and SNDK are both sporting a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), supported by their favorable earnings outlooks.
With valuations remaining exceptionally attractive, now could be an opportune time for investors to buy the dip following what may prove to be a healthy correction, especially considering MU and SNDK are still up more than 200% and 400% year to date, respectively.
Key Takeaways China's memory breakthrough faces massive hurdles.NVIDIA CEO quells neocloud borrowing cost concerns.SOXX drops, but historical data shows a rebound is likely. Memory Names Fall on China Competition, Kospi Buyback EndingMemory-related names such as Micron ((MU - Free Report) ), SanDisk ((SNDK - Free Report) ), and SK Hynix ((SKHY - Free Report) ) have been some of Wall Street’s best performers, amid a memory chip shortage and exploding demand. However, these stocks have been crushed in October. China’s leading memory manufacturer, ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT), announced a major technological breakthrough that boosts its chip density by 30-50%. Investors fear that, with Chinese competition, supply will flood the market and prices will crash. Additionally, memory stocks have fallen further as Samsung and SK Hynix’s massive buyback programs ended.
Despite CXMT’s breakthrough, the selling is likely overdone for a variety of reasons:
1. The technology gap remains large.
2. CXMT is nowhere near mass-producing these ultra-complex chips.
3. CXMT will struggle to acquire the technology needed to produce these chips because of U.S. export controls.
With the recent sell-off, Micron shares are now extremely cheap. The memory leader sports a P/E ratio of just 12x, while Wall Street analysts expect revenue and EPS to grow at a triple-digit clip.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Neoclouds Plunge on CoreWeave Debt AnxietyNeoclouds, the specialized cloud infrastructure providers that deliver high-performance graphics processing units (GPUs) and accelerated computing for artificial intelligence companies, fell this week amid debt concerns. On Wednesday, CoreWeave ((CRWV - Free Report) ), a Bitcoin miner turned neocloud, plunged 15% after a chart circulated on Twitter showing rising borrowing costs. Originally issued in June with a 9.625% coupon, the yield on CoreWeave’s $1.25 billion senior unsecured notes due 2032 violently spiked to 15%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
NVIDIA ((NVDA - Free Report) ) is the dominant AI chipmaker and a partner and investor in CoreWeave. Thursday, NVIDIA CEO helped to quell the debt concerns surrounding CoreWeave, saying “NVIDIA does not need to backstop CoreWeave. CoreWeave’s cost of capital is actually decreasing, and its strength is improving every day.”
Semiconductor Selling IntensifiesAmid hotter U.S. inflation, AI debt concerns, and the pressure on memory stocks, the iShares Semiconductor ETF ((SOXX - Free Report) ) has fallen for 8 consecutive sessions, marking its longest losing streak since 2010. The good news for investors is that in the past six instances where the SOXX declined for 8 straight sessions, it gained ground 2 days later 100% of the time.
Image Source: Bluekurtic Market Insights
Bottom Line
While recent macro pressures, Chinese technological breakthroughs, and AI debt anxieties have pressured the semiconductor sector, history suggests this sharp pullback may be an overreaction.
Cathie Wood is steering ARK away from memory chips just as Micron and SanDisk post some of the fastest margin expansions in their histories, and her reasoning about Chinese rivals may explain why those gains look fragile.
ARK Invest founder and CEO Cathie Wood told investors in Hong Kong on October 13 that her firm stears clear of conventional memory chip makers. That stance runs straight into two of the past year’s biggest winners: Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU | MU Price Prediction) and SanDisk (NASDAQ:SNDK).
“The trend is up, but the cycles are vicious,” Wood said, according to a Quartz summary of Bloomberg’s report. She added that if “you get a few more incremental competitors, especially out of China, the volatility will increase.”
Wood’s Caution Collides With a Massive Rally
Shares of Micron trade at $906.16, down 0.87% today and 16.7% over the past week. Despite that drop, the stock is up 217.74% year to date and 384.99% over one year. SanDisk shows the same pattern on a larger scale: shares sit at $1,355.55, off 19.9% in a week yet up 964.93% over a year. Today’s headlines describe a deepening AI stock sell-off, so Wood’s warning landed while the stocks were already drop.
The companies’ own margins illustrate her point. Micron’s fiscal Q4 2026 non-GAAP gross margin hit 87.0%, compared with 45.7% a year earlier. SanDisk’s GAAP gross margin rose from a 22.5% low in fiscal Q3 2025 to 84.6% in fiscal Q4 2026. Margins that expand that fast on pricing can contract just as fast when supply catches up.
CXMT’s Server Chip Plan Still Has to Prove Itself
Wood named state-backed CXMT as a source of supply pressure. ChangXin Memory Technologies has disclosed progress. The progress is on a more compact DRAM cell design and plans to introduce server-grade DDR5 products before the end of 2026. Micron stock dropped on October 12 as that news spread.
CXMT has yet to show large-scale output of the new architecture. Turning a design win into commercial volume requires solid yields, qualification at demanding server customers, and new fab capacity. Micron cited long clean-room lead times and slow fab increases as reasons it expects the industry to stay supply constrained in calendar 2027 and calendar 2028. “We do not have line of sight to when supply and demand will return to balance,” the company said.
Long-Term Contracts Built to Blunt the Next Downturn
The company has signed 26 strategic customer agreements expected to represent over 35% of revenue through 2030, backed by $32 billion in customer commitments, mostly cash deposits. Micron’s Mark Murphy said, “Even at floor prices, we expect margins meaningfully above any prior cycle peak margins.” Still, a quarter of that agreement revenue gets priced periodically at market rates.
SanDisk’s New Business Model agreements should cover more than 50% of bits in fiscal 2027 and approximately two-thirds in fiscal 2028. They are backed by $16.5 billion in financial guarantees. “A year ago, we were talking about visibility in this business of three months. And now we’re talking over four years of committed financials,” management said. Pricing on the remaining business “will fluctuate with the market,” and consumer revenue fell 32% quarter over quarter as higher prices weighed on demand.
Key Signals for Memory Investors Through Year-End
Micron guided fiscal Q1 2027 revenue to $61.5B ± $1.5B and non-GAAP EPS to $38.15 ± $1.00, per its September 30 8-K filing. Management expects that quarter to mark the gross margin floor for fiscal 2027.
SanDisk guided fiscal Q1 2027 revenue to $10.30B-$10.80B and non-GAAP EPS to $44.00-$46.00.
CXMT’s DDR5 server launch, and whether it ships in meaningful volume.
Micron’s Taiwan labor dispute. Union members at its Taoyuan operations voted 1,994 to 14 on October 7 to authorize a strike. No strike date is set and manufacturing continues, though Taiwan’s president urged both sides to negotiate.
Wood expects Chinese supply to sharpen the swings. Micron and SanDisk are counting on multi-year contracts with price floors to absorb them. Riding a cycle like this one works as long as you plan the exit, which is the whole subject of our free bubble survivor’s handbook. The next two quarterly reports will show which force carries more weight.
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Key Takeaways Broad index participation has returned to the market. Hammer candles signal seller exhaustion.Deep sentiment lows align with strong seasonality.
Why This Market Washout Will Spark a Year-End RallyOver the past few weeks, interpreting the market has been more difficult than normal. From a macro perspective, the picture has gotten bleaker, with higher interest rates and soaring energy prices. Conversely, a flurry of new innovations and AI spending have buoyed the overall market. However, this week, the AI piece of the market’s Jenga tower was removed after Chinese company announced progress in its memory technology and neocloud debt fears spooked investors. However, despite the market’s ugly price action the pullback may be the flush that bulls need to stage a year-end rally. Below are 5 reasons to be bullish into year-end:
Market Breadth ImprovesLately, the biggest concern for Wall Street investors has been weakening market breadth (participation). For instance, while the Nasdaq recently notched few highs, those highs were driven by robust performance in a handful of mega cap tech stocks like Meta Platforms ((META - Free Report) ). However, after a blood red open on Thursday morning, markets showed healthier market breadth into the close. With one hour left in the trading session, there were 74.43% advancers on the NYSE and 59.41% on the Nasdaq 100 Index.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Nasdaq 100 Fills GapWhen a stock or market index move in overnight trading, they often leave a blank space on a chart, better-known as a gap. These gaps act as psychological magnets where selling pressure exhausts and buyers’ step in once they are filled. For instance, the early September rally began after Nasdaq 100 Index ((QQQ - Free Report) ) filled its August gap. Is QQQ ready to provide some deja vu?
Image Source: TradingView
Meanwhile, several AI-related stocks such as Advanced Micro Devices ((AMD - Free Report) ), Micron ((MU - Free Report) ), and Nebius Group ((NBIS - Free Report) ) printed “hammer” candles off support levels. A hammer candle occurs when a stock has a wide intraday range that closes near the high of the day. Hammers signal seller exhaustion and often provide the washout that bulls need.
Image Source: TradingView
Semiconductor Washout Signals Bounce PotentialAmid hotter U.S. inflation, AI debt concerns, and the pressure on memory stocks, the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) has fallen for 8 consecutive sessions, marking its longest losing streak since 2010. The good news for investors is that in the past six instances where the SOXX declined for 8 straight sessions, it gained ground 2 days later 100% of the time.
Image Source: BlueKurtic Market Insights
Sentiment Signals Extreme FearThe CNN Fear/Greed Index has remained in the “fear” zone since early September. Similar instances have acted as reliable market bottom indicators.
Image Source: CNN
Q4 Seasonality TailwindsHistorically, October is the strongest month of the mid-term election seasonality cycle. On average, the Nasdaq delivers more than 3% returns. While the market has been weak thus far in October, investors must recognize that the October strength often begins in the back half of the month.
Image Source: StockTradersAlmanac.com
Bottom Line
While macro headwinds and AI volatility have unsettled investors, the recent price action reflects a classic market washout rather than a trend reversal. With extreme fear, technical gaps filled, and strong seasonality on the horizon, the stage is set for bulls to regain control.
Memory-chip manufacturer Micron Technology Inc. (MU, Financials) was down another 4.07% in premarket trading as investors continued to flee one of the hottest areas of the AI trade.
SanDisk was down 4.94% while SK Hynix slid 6.61%. That decline happened even as TSMC posted record profitability and reiterated that demand from AI remains high.
And that disconnect makes the move fascinating.
Investors' fears are mounting that the increased interest rates would make data-center construction more costly and chip values under pressure. At the same time, Micron faces a labor issue in Taiwan, and the potential of tougher competition from China's CXMT.
But the demand picture has not cracked.
Micron stated its projected high-bandwidth memory capacity is sold out through 2027 and management anticipates HBM demand to outpace the larger DRAM market through 2028.
That leaves investors trying to reconcile two very different tales at once. Strong demand, and increased risk.
The other item to monitor is if Micron can conclude its Taiwan labor issue without disruption, and if AI demand remains high enough to offset pressure from rates and new competitors.
ASML (ASML +0.43%) reported third-quarter earnings Wednesday morning, and the news should reassure investors worried that the AI boom might be slowing down.
Revenue jumped 55% to 11.66 billion euros, which was slightly below estimates at 11.72 billion euros. The stock also fell 4% on Wednesday, in line with a broader sell-off in the tech sector on a hotter-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading. On the bottom line, its earnings per share surged from 5.48 euros to 12.93 euros, well ahead of the consensus of 10.76 euros, a bullish sign.
Gross margin in the quarter expanded by 51.6% to 57.5%, and with operating expenses nearly flat, the operating margin expanded from 32.8% to 44.4%.
ASML also raised its full-year guidance from 43 billion-45 billion euros to 44 billion-45 billion euros, and it expected even stronger results for the fourth quarter, with revenue of 14.2 billion-15.2 billion euros.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
The growth story is heating upASML and other semiconductor capital equipment stocks have been slow to capitalize on AI demand because ASML's lithography machines, used to manufacture semiconductors, are downstream of chip demand.
ASML's machines are big-ticket items, and the companies that buy them want to ensure there is sufficient demand to justify the purchase. On that front, ASML's backlog is strong and getting stronger as CEO Christophe Fouquet said, "Our customers increase their short-and medium-term equipment demand forecasts with us, driven primarily by their views on the size and duration of AI-related investment. In light of their demand visibility, some customers are expressing an interest in placing orders with us for 2029 and 2030."
The company also said that its supply won't meet demand in 2027 and 2028, and it's aiming to expand its capacity beyond the 30% expansion it already forecast.
Why it's good news for MicronASML's comments are further evidence that the bottleneck across the semiconductor industry will last for at least a few more years, as the lithography machines it sells are crucial to expanding chip manufacturing capacity.
ASML is the world's only maker of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines, which are used to make the most advanced chips. The memory chip shortage has lifted Micron (MU +1.50%) and peers like SK Hynix, Samsung, and Sandisk.
Micron is a key customer of ASML, and the memory industry is shifting to making newer generations of high-bandwidth memory (HBM) like HBM4, exclusively on EUV, which means that tight supply for ASML machines is likely to push out memory chip expansion further, and that's good news for Micron.
$1,657.18+$7.18 (+0.43%)
NASDAQ · As of 3:40 PM ET 10/15/26
Will chip stocks bounce back?Chip stocks have gotten routed this week on concerns about rising interest rates, funding the ongoing AI build-out, and weakness in South Korea as the KOSPI, the South Korean benchmark index, has fallen for seven days in a row.
However, the companies that make up ASML's top customers are well-funded and will be able to purchase its machines, regardless of interest rates or related factors.
The companies investing in AI see it as close to existential and believe that success in AI is crucial to their future, as falling behind competitors could lead to them getting disrupted.
For Micron, the biggest question facing the stock is what the shape of the cycle looks like. What determines when it peaks is supply and demand, as well as the growth of AI spending.
Data points from peers like ASML continue to indicate that the AI sector will be supply-constrained for at least the next few years. That shows both that AI growth would be even faster without supply constraints and that shortages for products like memory chips will keep prices elevated.
While the chip sector will remain volatile, Micron and ASML are well-positioned to grow over the coming years, and that should eventually be reflected in their stock prices.
Micron, Samsung and SK hynix are posting some of the most spectacular profits in semiconductor history, but a Chinese competitor is quietly building the capacity to dismantle the very conditions making those profits possible.
Micron, Samsung and SK hynix are collecting extraordinary profits from soaring DRAM prices while customers face the consequences of a severe memory shortage. China’s CXMT is advancing DDR5, LPDDR5X and next-generation DRAM technology despite U.S. restrictions on advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment. CXMT’s projected manufacturing capacity could increase 83% between 2025 and 2028, potentially threatening the pricing power that has made the established DRAM manufacturers so profitable. The DRAM Giants Are Making a Killing From the Memory Shortage Micron Technology (MU), Samsung Electronics and SK hynix (SKHY) are making a fortune from the global memory shortage, and their customers are paying for it. Artificial intelligence infrastructure investment has driven extraordinary demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM), server DRAM and other advanced memory products, while constrained supplies have sent prices soaring. Wall Street is celebrating the resulting profits, but investors should be asking whether the industry’s three dominant manufacturers are becoming dangerously comfortable with a market in which scarcity generates exceptional returns.
Micron’s financial results expose just how lucrative the memory shortage has become. In fiscal 2026, the company generated $133.19 billion in revenue, up 256% from $37.38 billion in fiscal 2025. Its GAAP gross margin more than doubled from 39.8% to 80.7%, while net income surged from $8.54 billion to $84.97 billion. Most revealing, Micron reported that DRAM average selling prices increased approximately 180% year over year, compared with bit shipment growth in only the mid-20% range. The enormous expansion in profitability was driven primarily by customers paying dramatically higher prices, not a comparable increase in memory production.
The three manufacturers have continued spending heavily on new technology and production facilities, but their investments have increasingly favored the most profitable products, particularly HBM and advanced server DRAM. The strategy is rational from the perspective of maximizing shareholder returns, but its consequences extend beyond the companies’ income statements. Conventional DRAM supply remains constrained, customers face sharply higher prices, and the manufacturers benefit from a market in which additional production has not kept pace with demand.
Meanwhile, China’s ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) is pursuing a strategy that could eventually undermine the very scarcity that has made the established manufacturers so profitable. Despite restrictions on advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment and its inability to acquire EUV lithography systems, CXMT has continued developing more sophisticated DRAM technologies while preparing a substantial expansion in manufacturing capacity.
The irony is difficult to ignore. Micron, Samsung and SK hynix are collecting the rewards of today’s shortage while China is investing to make sure those rewards do not last forever.
The DRAM Giants Protect Their Margins While CXMT Builds Capacity The memory industry has a long history of manufacturers expanding production too aggressively, creating oversupply and watching prices collapse. Following the severe downturn in 2022 and 2023, Micron, Samsung and SK hynix reduced production or moderated certain investments to restore profitability. That response was understandable, but the industry’s subsequent emphasis on protecting margins has become particularly lucrative as AI infrastructure spending accelerates.
HBM has become central to this strategy. Used alongside advanced AI processors, HBM commands premium prices and requires sophisticated manufacturing and packaging. The established manufacturers have increasingly directed capital and production resources toward these products, seeking the highest possible returns from an industry experiencing unprecedented demand.
There is nothing inherently improper about maximizing profits. The problem is that the three manufacturers may be confusing their ability to profit from scarcity with an enduring competitive advantage. The more attractive DRAM prices become, the stronger the incentive for China to develop its own alternative suppliers.
CXMT is responding to that incentive with manufacturing investment. Unlike the established producers, whose capital allocation decisions are closely tied to near-term financial returns, CXMT operates within China’s broader objective of reducing dependence on foreign semiconductor suppliers. Its investments therefore reflect strategic considerations that extend beyond the profitability of any individual memory cycle.
According to Table 1, CXMT’s estimated installed DRAM wafer capacity is projected to increase from 300,000 wafers per month at the end of 2025 to 550,000 by the end of 2028, representing growth of 83.3%. The expansion includes additional capacity at Hefei and Beijing, along with a new manufacturing contribution from Shanghai beginning in 2027.
Table 1. CXMT DRAM Manufacturing Capacity by Location, 2025–2028E
Thousands of wafers per month, year-end
Manufacturing location 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E Hefei 200 220 250 300 Beijing 100 100 100 150 Shanghai 0 0 50 100 Total CXMT 300 320 400 550 Annual capacity growth — 6.7% 25.0% 37.5% Source: Industry capacity estimates supplied to The Information Network. Figures for 2026–2028 are forecasts rather than confirmed completed capacity. The projected expansion is significant because additional wafer capacity is only one component of CXMT’s potential growth in memory production. Improvements in DRAM cell density can increase the number of memory bits manufactured on each wafer, while higher yields can increase the number of usable chips. If CXMT successfully combines capacity expansion with technological improvements, its growth in marketable memory output could exceed the growth in installed wafer capacity.
These forecasts are not guarantees. Equipment restrictions, process complexity, manufacturing yields and construction schedules could delay expansion. Nevertheless, the projections demonstrate the scale of China’s ambitions in DRAM manufacturing. While the established manufacturers enjoy extraordinary margins, CXMT is developing the manufacturing infrastructure needed to become a more consequential competitor.
The strategic danger is that the current shortage is making China’s investment case more compelling. High DRAM prices increase the economic value of domestic production, while dependence on foreign suppliers reinforces Beijing’s determination to develop alternatives. The established manufacturers may be maximizing today’s profits while strengthening the incentives for their future competition.
CXMT Is Challenging the Technology Gap, Not Just Adding Cheap Capacity The established DRAM manufacturers could dismiss CXMT as a producer of older, less sophisticated memory products. That argument is becoming increasingly difficult to sustain.
CXMT has advanced beyond DDR4 into DDR5 and LPDDR5X, while pursuing next-generation mobile memory, advanced server DRAM and HBM technologies. These developments matter because the company’s ambitions now extend into product categories that have historically supported the established manufacturers’ technological advantages and premium pricing.
Industry estimates of CXMT’s 2026 product mix indicate approximately 25% DDR4, 25% DDR5 and 50% LPDDR5X. Although these are estimates rather than confirmed shipment shares, they suggest that CXMT is no longer concentrating primarily on legacy memory. The company is positioning itself to compete in increasingly sophisticated applications.
Its proposed 4F² DRAM architecture represents a potentially important technological development. Conventional DRAM memory cells commonly use a 6F² design, where F represents the minimum feature dimension. At the same feature dimension, reducing the memory-cell footprint from 6F² to 4F² decreases theoretical cell area by one-third, potentially increasing memory-cell density by 50%.
The distinction between theoretical density and commercial manufacturing performance is important. CXMT has not demonstrated that its proposed 4F² architecture can achieve competitive production yields, reliability or costs at scale. Samsung and SK hynix are also developing advanced memory-cell architectures, and the established manufacturers retain considerable manufacturing advantages.
Nevertheless, CXMT is attacking the technological problem from a different direction. Rather than relying entirely on smaller lithographic dimensions, it is pursuing architectural changes that can increase memory capacity within a given chip area. That approach is especially significant for a manufacturer operating without access to EUV lithography.
The lesson for investors is that equipment restrictions do not necessarily prevent technological development. They can increase manufacturing complexity and expense, but they do not eliminate the possibility of alternative process solutions.
SMIC Already Exposed the Weakness in the Sanctions Argument The semiconductor industry should have learned this lesson several years ago.
In May 2022, I published a Seeking Alpha article examining Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation’s (SMIC) progress toward 7nm-class logic manufacturing without EUV lithography. At the time, many observers assumed that restricting China’s access to EUV systems would prevent its semiconductor manufacturers from advancing into more sophisticated process technologies.
SMIC demonstrated that the assumption was flawed. By using deep ultraviolet lithography and multiple patterning, the company achieved 7nm-class logic manufacturing despite the absence of EUV equipment. The approach involved additional manufacturing complexity and disadvantages in efficiency and cost, but the technological barrier was not absolute.
CXMT is pursuing a different objective. SMIC’s logic technology focuses on increasing transistor density, which can improve computational performance and power efficiency. CXMT’s DRAM technology focuses on increasing memory-bit density and the capacity of individual memory chips.
The common lesson is that Chinese semiconductor manufacturers are finding ways to advance technologically despite restrictions on their access to the most sophisticated foreign equipment.
The established DRAM manufacturers should not assume that today’s technological advantages are protected indefinitely by export restrictions. SMIC demonstrated the limitations of that assumption in logic manufacturing, and CXMT’s progress provides another warning in memory.
The Real Threat Is the Collapse of the Scarcity Premium CXMT does not need to overtake Micron, Samsung or SK hynix technologically to damage their profitability. It does not even need to become a leading global supplier immediately. It only needs to add enough commercially competitive DRAM capacity to begin changing the balance between supply and demand.
China is a major consumer of memory semiconductors. Every additional chip produced domestically can potentially displace imported DRAM, reducing the market available to established foreign suppliers. Even if CXMT concentrates initially on Chinese customers, greater domestic production could force competing manufacturers to seek additional sales elsewhere, increasing pricing pressure.
That prospect becomes particularly important when the current shortage eventually eases. The established manufacturers are benefiting from a market in which customers have limited alternatives and demand has outpaced available supply. Those conditions have produced extraordinary profits, but they are not necessarily permanent.
The semiconductor industry’s history repeatedly demonstrates that exceptional margins attract additional investment and eventually encourage greater supply. What makes the present situation different is that the potential new competitor is supported by a national industrial strategy that places technological independence alongside commercial profitability.
For Micron, Samsung and SK hynix, this creates a competitive threat that cannot be dismissed simply because CXMT currently trails them in advanced manufacturing yields or HBM production. Those advantages matter, but they do not eliminate the consequences of a fourth manufacturer expanding its capacity and improving its products.
The danger is that the established manufacturers are enjoying the financial rewards of a shortage while underestimating how aggressively China is preparing for the next phase of the memory market.
Investor Takeaway Micron, Samsung and SK hynix have every reason to celebrate their extraordinary financial performance, but investors should question whether the companies’ current profitability is concealing a developing competitive problem. The three manufacturers have benefited from sharply higher DRAM prices while directing enormous resources toward premium memory products. Their strategy has rewarded shareholders, but it has also coincided with technological progress and manufacturing expansion by a Chinese competitor whose objectives extend beyond immediate profitability.
CXMT’s advancement into DDR5, LPDDR5X and higher-density DRAM architectures demonstrates that U.S. equipment restrictions have not prevented continued technological development. Its projected 83% capacity expansion between 2025 and 2028 could make the company a more significant participant in the global memory market, particularly if its process improvements translate into higher yields and greater memory-bit output.
The greatest danger to the established manufacturers may not be CXMT’s latest technological announcement. It may be their own complacency. Micron, Samsung and SK hynix have become exceptionally profitable in a market where customers have limited alternatives, but those same extraordinary prices are strengthening China’s determination to develop alternative sources of advanced memory.
The DRAM giants are making a killing from today’s memory shortage. They may discover that their greatest mistake was giving China every reason to end it.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Micron Technology (MU +1.28%) has had a great year. It's up around 230% so far in 2026, making it the fourth-best-performing stock in the S&P 500 this year. Normally, you're supposed to buy a stock before it makes a run like that, but even after the run-up, I've decided to open a position in Micron.
Why? It seems as if some of Micron's old tendencies are a thing of the past.
Image source: Getty Images.
Micron is taking steps to reduce its cyclicality Micron makes memory chips, and the industry is known to be cyclical. There isn't much that separates one memory chip manufacturer from another, so Micron has no pricing power. You can see this in action when you think about purchasing an aftermarket thumb drive or upgrading your computer's RAM. All components are about the same, but what really matters is how cheaply you can buy them.
The market goes through demand cycles that go up and down, and when it's swinging up, times are good for Micron and its peers. But when it's a downturn, they're stuck with excess inventory and can't sell any new production, so the companies, and thus the stock, struggle.
Right now, we're amid the biggest memory-demand wave ever seen, thanks to the intensity of the artificial intelligence build-out. All available production capacity for both types of memory chips (DRAM and NAND, both of which Micron makes) is currently consumed. Every memory chip company has said demand far exceeds capacity, causing prices to skyrocket.
MU Micron Technology$925.82+$11.69 (+1.28%)
NASDAQ · As of 3:37 PM ET 10/15/26
The fear is that this demand wave will eventually fade, leaving Micron in a much worse state than it is now. However, Micron is taking steps to reduce the severity of the eventual downturn. Micron has now signed several deals with its clients that set floor and ceiling prices for memory chips, which will stabilize the market. Furthermore, these are take-or-pay agreements, so Micron has locked in an estimated 35% of its revenue through 2030. That's a huge step toward ending the cyclicality of Micron's business, as Micron is now being treated more like a true supplier rather than just a commodity dealer.
Another development is that Micron is partnering with Nvidia to create an industry-first custom memory chip for its GPUs. This will completely shift Micron's relationship with one of the biggest memory buyers in the world, which is a great thing for Micron.
Overall, Micron has taken steps to steady its business and reduce its dependence on cyclical demand. But the question remains: When will the AI demand wave wrap up?
The AI build-out just got extended Most investors point to 2030 as the year when the AI build-out may slow, but Micron just informed investors that a few of its clients signed deals through 2031, indicating a longer time frame. Furthermore, conditions will get worse before they get better.
Conditions in the memory chip market were terrible for buyers in 2026, with far more demand than supply. However, Micron's management team noted that conditions will worsen still further in 2027 and 2028 due to lack of supply. While Micron is working on getting new production capacity running, it won't be until mid-2027 and into 2028 before significant supply is available. That means another couple of years of strong revenue growth, even after how much it grew in 2026.
All of this adds up to a stock that should behave like a normal big tech stock at least through the end of the decade. While I'm a long-term investor, the market is much more short-sighted, so that gives me plenty of time to invest in a company that's bound to continue growing as the AI build-out intensifies. I'm happy to own Micron shares and believe they will be highly profitable over the next few years.
But I'll also be keeping a close eye on memory chip market conditions, and if they deteriorate, I'll be moving on from the stock.
Michael Burry is one of the world's most famous investors. His bets against the U.S. housing market ahead of the subprime mortgage crisis proved to be massively successful, and were profiled in Michael Lewis' book The Big Short and the film of the same name. Burry's prescience regarding one of this century's defining financial crises is a testament to his analytical prowess, so it's little wonder that his analyses and opinions still carry weight in the financial world.
Notably, Burry is skeptical today about the valuations of some of the world's most high-profile artificial intelligence (AI) stocks -- and Micron (MU -0.26%) is one of the companies that he is betting against. Should Micron shareholders be worried?
Michael Burry. Image source: Getty Images.
Why is Burry bearish on Micron? At first glance, the case for Micron being an overvalued stock could look quite weak. The company is trading at just 5.4 times this year's expected earnings. Meanwhile, it has a one-year forward price-to-earnings ratio of roughly 4.6. The forward P/E ratio of the S&P 500 index sits somewhere around 19. Given that Micron is growing earnings at a far faster rate than the average for companies in the benchmark index, it's not unreasonable to suspect that the company is currently undervalued.
In the fourth quarter of Micron's fiscal 2026, which ended on Sept. 3, the company posted non-GAAP (adjusted) earnings per share (EPS) of $33.42, significantly exceeding the average analyst estimate of $31.61. Adjusted earnings per share rose 1,003% year over year, and sales rose 379% to $54.2 billion. Additionally, the company issued guidance that suggests that sales and earnings will continue growing at aggressive clips.
So why is Burry betting against Micron stock?
MU Micron Technology$911.80-$2.34 (-0.26%)
NASDAQ · As of 1:12 PM ET 10/15/26
The semiconductor industry has always had a high level of cyclicality, and the memory chip arena where Micron operates has historically been even more prone to wide cyclical shifts. The company and its peers are currently enjoying a massive surge in demand for the high bandwidth memory (HBM) chips used in artificial intelligence (AI) processors. The resulting deep shortage in memory has pushed prices and margins sharply higher. But Burry is betting that this supply-and-demand imbalance will follow its historically cyclical pattern and reverse, putting an end to Micron's explosive growth story.
Additionally, Burry has raised valuation risks connected to circular financing deals being used across the AI industry, as well as the rise of Chinese memory-chip makers that could dampen Micron's pricing power. With AI leaders devoting massive capital expenditures to build out their infrastructure foundations, and companies on both the hardware and software sides of the industry making business deals, partnerships, and equity investments with each other, he may be right to question the circular nature of this spending and the sustainability of massive capital expenditures. Similarly, the risk that a flood of cheaper memory chips from China could impair Micron's growth trajectory is real.
Burry's bet against Micron doesn't necessarily mean that investors should sell their holdings or refrain from buying the stock, but it would be a mistake not to consider the risk factors he is highlighting.
Sandisk (SNDK -4.10%) stock fell for a fourth straight day Thursday, continuing a rout that began with a CXMT announcement Monday that the Chinese DRAM company has invented "4F square" technology to increase DRAM storage density -- and will soon be coming for Sandisk's market share.
Sandisk stock is down 8.1% as of 9:50 a.m. ET, and down 18% so far this week.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
Who is CXMT and how scared should we be?Global market intelligence company Trendforce estimates that CXMT holds about 9.5% of the global DRAM memory market, placing it fourth in line behind Samsung (39.4%), SK Hynix (24.9%), and Micron (MU -0.26%), which has a 23.3% share.
Sandisk doesn't appear anywhere on this list because -- contrary to what you might think after watching the stock decline 18% this week, Sandisk doesn't actually make DRAM at all! (Sandisk manufactures NAND flash memory instead.)
So while investors may be nervous that CXMT's advances in 4F square technology will win it a bigger share of the DRAM market, that probably shouldn't affect Sandisk stock nearly as much as it's doing.
SNDK Sandisk$1,345.76-$57.58 (-4.10%)
NASDAQ · As of 1:11 PM ET 10/15/26
A reason to buy SandiskTo the contrary, a note out from KeyBanc analyst John Vinh this morning supports the argument that the farther Sandisk stock falls, the more of a buy Sandisk becomes.
With memory supply still constrained, Vinh predicts DRAM prices will rise 15% to 20% year over year in Q4 2026, while NAND prices will rise 20%. High-bandwidth memory -- the most lucrative segment of this market and the area where CXMT is weakest -- could see prices rise 80% to 100% in Q1 2027.
This implies continued high prices for memory makers such as Sandisk. Despite the sell-off -- indeed, because of the sell-off -- I think that's a great argument for buying Sandisk stock today.
Rich Smith has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Micron Technology. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Wall Street analysts are chasing Micron with targets that leave our model cold, and the gap between their optimism and our measured call comes down to one overlooked risk lurking beneath record-breaking earnings.
Our 24/7 Wall St. price target for Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU | MU Price Prediction) is $1,059.58 over the next 12 months. With shares at $982.14 in Monday trading, that implies about 7.9% upside. Our call is hold, and our model carries a high confidence reading of 90%.
24/7 Wall St. Price Target Summary Metric Value Current Price $982.14 Price Target from 24/7 Wall St. $1,059.58 Upside/Downside 7.9% Recommendation HOLD Confidence Level 90% The Street’s targets run well above ours. The consensus analyst target of $1,555.13 implies roughly 58% upside, and 92% of covering analysts lean bullish. My model is more measured, and the reasons come down to where memory sits in its cycle.
China Competition Fears Hit a Stock Up Over 240% This Year Micron has fallen 8.63% over the past week and 4.44% over the past month, though it remains up 244.33% year to date. Monday’s 4.55% drop followed reports that Chinese rival CXMT is progressing a new chip (Barron’s). Shares now trade about 22% below the 52-week high of $1,254.81.
The fundamentals remain extraordinary. Fiscal Q4 revenue reached $54.23 billion, beating estimates of $50.97 billion, while non-GAAP EPS of $33.42 exceeded the $31.35 consensus. Guidance for fiscal Q1 calls for $61.50 billion in revenue and EPS of $38.15.
Why Bulls See $1,354 Ahead Management expects DRAM and NAND conditions to “remain tight beyond calendar 2027,” and HBM4 is now in high-volume shipments for the lead AI accelerator platform. The bigger story is the Strategic Customer Agreements.
Micron said 14 of its first 16 agreements carry roughly $100 billion in minimum-price revenue, with floor prices delivering margins above any prior cycle peak. If that visibility earns a higher multiple, our bull case reaches $1,354.11.
Cyclical History Still Matters Micron posted EPS of -1.91 as recently as fiscal Q2 2023, a reminder of how fast memory pricing can reverse. Capex hit $30.7 billion in fiscal 2026, and CXMT’s progress raises supply questions.
The bear case sits at $791.94. In fairness, that spending funds capacity backed by take-or-pay contracts, and fiscal Q4 free cash flow of $33.20 billion covers it well.
Micron Looks Cheap Next to SanDisk and NVIDIA SanDisk (NASDAQ:SNDK) offers the best pure-play NAND comparison. It trades at a forward P/E of 8x, slightly higher than Micron’s 7x, despite Micron’s added HBM exposure.
NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) drives much of Micron’s HBM demand. Its forward P/E of 25x and PEG of 0.479 compare with Micron’s PEG of 0.16. Our target looks conservative relative to both peers.
Company Forward P/E Analyst Target Micron 7x $1,555.13 SanDisk 8x $2,173 NVIDIA 25x $328.72 Micron Price Prediction 2026-2030 The 24/7 Wall St. price target of $1,059.58 supports a hold rating with 90% confidence. The deciding factor is cycle risk.
A more positive position would emerge if more agreements close and margins hold near guidance of 86.25%. I’d stay cautious if CXMT gains ground or pricing moderates. Micron is a high-quality business priced near fair value today.
Our model projects where Micron could trade at each year’s end, assuming current trends hold.
Year Price Target from 24/7 Wall St. 2026 $1,015.05 2027 $1,107.38 2028 $1,089.59 2029 $1,171.88 2030 $1,233.84 The projections rest on Micron continuing to execute on HBM and contract pricing. A faster AI expansion or a memory downturn could swing results sharply. For readers hunting the next monster run in AI silicon, we reverse-engineered what the biggest tech winners looked like early in a free playbook here.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Readers are advised to fact-check thoroughly before making any investment related decisions; this reflects the personal views of the author and should not be pursued as formal financial or investment advice in any manner. While every effort has been made to ensure accuracy, errors may exist in the data and financial projections presented. The author is not responsible for any financial gains or losses incurred from investments made based on this content.
Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.
Micron Technology, SanDisk and SK Hynix stocks continued to fall on Thursday as concerns about Chinese memory-chip competition and a broader artificial intelligence sell-off weighed on the sector. Analysts see potential support from shareholder returns, but warn that a recovery could be harder to achieve than during previous market corrections.
Elon Musk has added to the bullish conversation surrounding Micron Technology (MU - Free Report) , praising the chipmaker for keeping future memory prices reasonable while some competitors allegedly charge excessive rates.
In a recent post on X, Musk said Micron's approach could help strengthen long-term relationships with customers. The endorsement comes as demand for memory chips continues to rise, fueled in part by the expansion of artificial intelligence infrastructure, as reported by Yahoo Finance.
The comments offer a high-profile vote of confidence in Micron's pricing strategy. However, the company's recent financial performance suggests that its growth story extends well beyond social media attention.
Chaos in the Chip SpaceNote that Musk’s comment hit the market at a time when global chip stocks tumbled on news that China's CXMT targets server memory, the highest-margin segment driving AI chip profits.CXMT said its first 4F2 product, a DDR5 RDIMM server module, should launch by year-end, about two years ahead of Samsung’s reported timeline, per a source.
This new DRAM architecture as CXMT claims could boost memory density by 30-50%. On the news, in the United States, MU along with Sandisk Corporation (SNDK - Free Report) , Seagate Technology Holdings (STX - Free Report) and Western Digital Corporation (WDC - Free Report) came under pressure. Plus, rising rate worries acted as added concerns.
MU shares are down about 14% over the past five days (as of Oct. 14, 2026), though shares are up 97% over the past six months and 191% so far this year.
Micron Delivers a Blowout QuarterMicron recently reported exceptionally strong quarterly results, beating expectations across key financial metrics and providing upbeat guidance. Its latest performance highlights rising demand and favorable pricing conditions in the memory market.
The company added approximately $43 billion in sales compared with the year-ago quarter and generated more than $13 billion in additional revenue from the preceding quarter.
DRAM revenues reached a record $39.77 billion in Q4, representing 73% of total revenues.NAND revenues were a record $14.10 billion, accounting for 26% of revenues.
Profitability has also strengthened considerably, with operating margins exceeding 80% in some business segments.
Micron’s SCAs Extend Revenue VisibilityMicron has signed 26 strategic customer agreements, or SCAs, representing an estimated more than 35% of revenues through 2030. Three-quarters of those expected revenues have a defined pricing framework, while customer financial commitments under signed agreements and extensions reached $32 billion.
Remaining performance obligations tied to SCAs with determined pricing were about $150 billion. Management also said more than 75% of 2027 output is already committed across SCA and non-SCA customers.
Tight Supply Could Support Pricing Through 2028Micron's outlook is drawing attention as executives signal that capacity constraints and higher product prices could persist through 2028. Musk's comments may reinforce the company's customer-friendly pricing.
Limited supply alongside robust demand could support revenue and profitability, particularly as AI data centers require increasingly sophisticated memory solutions.
Expanded Buyback Authorization Adds to Investor FocusMicron has also increased its stock repurchase authorization to $35.16 billion. The company is expected to resume share repurchases on Dec. 9, when restrictions tied to the CHIPS Act lift, according to the report.
MU’s Value ScorecardMicron shares have been trading at a forward price/earnings (P/E) ratio of 5.36X, which is quite cheap compared with chipmakers like Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD - Free Report) . AMD trades at a P/E of 80.64X. WDC and STX trade at a forward P/E of 19.0X and 20.7X, respectively.
SK Hynix, Inc. - Sponsored ADR (SKHY - Free Report) and SNDK, however, look cheap with P/E ratios of 6.11X and 6.95X, respectively. Meanwhile, Qualcomm (QCOM - Free Report) , which is managing the AI memory bottleneck through its High Bandwidth Compute (HBC) architecture, trades at a P/E of 17.65X.
Time for Micron-Heavy ETFs?With strong quarterly results, a favorable memory-pricing environment and potential capital returns, Micron has several factors supporting its investment case. But higher rates may pose a threat.
Against this backdrop, investors can play Micron-heavy ETFs to avoid company-specific concentration risks.
iShares MSCI USA Value Factor ETF (VLUE - Free Report) – MU weight 23.85%
XFUNDS Memory Income ETF (DRMY - Free Report) – MU weight 17.21%
Yorkville America Next Generation Memory Index ETF (NRAM - Free Report) – MU weight 15.67%
FINQ FIRST U.S. Large Cap AI-Managed Equity ETF (AIUP - Free Report) – MU weight 15.01%
Micron (MU -1.86%) stock fell for a fourth straight day Thursday, continuing a rout that began with Monday's announcement that Chinese DRAM company ChangXin Memory Technologies, or CXMT, has invented "4F square" technology to increase DRAM storage density -- and may soon be coming for Micron's market share.
Micron stock is down 2.8% as of 10:35 a.m. ET, and down 13.5% so far this week.
Image source: Micron.
What is CXMT and how scared should we be?Global market intelligence company Trendforce says CXMT holds 9.5% of the global DRAM memory market, putting it in fourth place behind Samsung (39.4%), SK Hynix (24.9%), and Micron (23.3%).
DRAM is the biggest part of Micron's business, providing 73% of the company's revenue. (The other 26% comes from sales of NAND flash memory.)
MU Micron Technology$897.10-$17.03 (-1.86%)
NASDAQ · As of 10:41 AM ET 10/15/26
A reason to buy MicronWhy is that important? KeyBanc analyst John Vinh predicts DRAM prices will rise 15% to 20% year over year in Q4 2026, while NAND prices rise 20%. That gives Micron two ways to profit from the global deficit in memory chips.
High-bandwidth memory -- the most lucrative segment of this market for Micron and the area where CXMT is weakest -- could see prices rise 80% to 100% in Q1 2027. But now here's the important point:
Memory companies that operate logically will emphasize production of HBM DRAM for artificial intelligence data centers -- because that's where the money is. Doing so, Vinh predicts they will cut DRAM production for cellphones and PCs by 20% to 30% next year. CXMT's DRAM, which is "two or three generations" behind Micron, will most likely go to fill this low-end gap -- leaving Micron free to reap better margins producing high-end HBM DRAM!
In this case, CXMT mayn't be as big a threat as investors fear. Micron's profit margins should be safe.
Rich Smith has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Micron Technology. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Just days ago, Elon Musk suggested that memory supply is a major bottleneck for artificial intelligence (AI) development. The CEO of Tesla and Space Exploration Technologies posted on X (formerly Twitter) that the problem boils down to RAM supply.
Now, Musk has gone a step further, singling out Micron Technology (MU -4.08%) for its approach to memory pricing.
His comments highlight something Wall Street may be overlooking, offering investors an important clue about why Micron's growth story might last considerably longer than the current semiconductor shortage.
Space Exploration Technologies and Tesla CEO Elon Musk. Image source: The White House.
Musk endorses Micron and calls out the competition On Oct. 13, Musk wrote on X that Micron has been "reasonable" about future memory prices, while suggesting other suppliers are being "extortionate." He added that customers will not forget how suppliers treated them during the memory shortage, suggesting that Micron's approach is a smart move for "long-term customer loyalty."
That's a powerful endorsement from someone building some of the world's most ambitious AI infrastructure projects. Memory chips are essential tools for training AI models, running inference workloads, and supporting sophisticated autonomous systems across vehicles and robotics.
As demand accelerates, memory manufacturers are gaining substantial pricing power. But Musk's comments underscore how Micron is thinking beyond maximizing today's profits during the supply crunch. Instead, the company is smartly prioritizing relationships that could generate business as the AI infrastructure supercycle matures.
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Micron's new customer strategy paves the way for long-term growth Musk's post is particularly timely because Micron has adopted new multiyear strategic customer agreements (SCAs). During its latest earnings presentation on Sept. 30, Micron disclosed 26 strategic customer agreements covering at least 35% of projected revenue through 2030. In total, the company has $150 billion in remaining performance obligations (RPO) from the SCAs.
This is an important achievement for a company operating in one of the semiconductor industry's most cyclical markets. Historically, memory producers faced a familiar pattern: Demand surges, prices increase, manufacturers expand capacity, and eventually oversupply sends prices plummeting.
Micron's longer-term agreements should change that dynamic. By securing commitments from hyperscalers and large enterprises, Micron inherently gains more visibility into future demand. In turn, the company can plan manufacturing investments more effectively while potentially reducing its exposure to pricing swings.
Musk's commentary reinforces this exact strategy. If customers perceive that Micron is treating them fairly during periods of scarcity, they may be more inclined to commit future orders to the company.
Importantly, this does not mean Micron is sacrificing profitability. The company's latest financial results demonstrate just how lucrative the memory market has become. Micron's gross margin is materially higher than that of category leaders such as Nvidia, Broadcom, and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, each of which dominates a different layer of the AI chip value chain.
MU Gross Profit Margin (Quarterly) data by YCharts
Micron's real opportunity is to convert today's extraordinary demand into more predictable business relationships. For long-term investors, this is more important than squeezing every possible dollar out of the current memory shortage.
Micron stock looks like a no-brainer buy Musk's overall point is that customer loyalty could become an important competitive advantage for Micron. Meanwhile, Wall Street expects the company to generate approximately $176 in earnings per share (EPS) during fiscal 2027. With shares trading around $938 as of this writing (Oct. 14), that translates into a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of approximately 5.3.
This is a modest multiple for a company benefiting from outsize AI infrastructure tailwinds. Even applying a relatively conservative multiple of 10 times projected earnings implies a stock price around $1,760, representing 87% upside from today's price.
I think there is a compelling argument that investors are undervaluing Micron stock right now. With multiyear customer agreements supporting the long-term outlook, Micron appears to be building customer loyalty and brand equity that will sustain growth beyond the current memory cycle. Combined with its attractive valuation, I see Micron as a no-brainer stock to buy and hold for the long run.
Memory chip stocks have taken a particularly bad beating this week amid broader equity market turmoil.
Two concerns are adding to the pressure — the debate over whether Chinese competition is threatening memory incumbents and speculation about when the market could become oversupplied.
Over the last five days, SK Hynix has plunged 26%, Samsung has tanked 22% and Micron has dropped around 11%.
China worriesThe initial jitters came at the start of the week after China's leading memory chipmaker ChangXin Memory Technologies, or CXMT, announced plans to roll out a server memory product based on new architecture.
CXMT's design would allow higher storage density, raising concerns that the breakthrough could result in the Chinese company taking global market share from rivals Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron.
However, a number of analysts questioned whether CXMT would be able to scale the production of such an advanced technology.
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"The issue, of course, was with any architectural change ... you can make the chips, but what yield are you getting? If you're only getting a 50% yield, you're literally putting half the chips in the bin because they don't work very well," Ben Barringer, global head of technology research at Quilter Cheviot, told CNBC's "Squawk Box Europe" on Wednesday.
Kevin Cassidy, a senior research analyst at Rosenblatt Securities, also said the developments at CXMT are unlikely to add more supply of memory onto the market.
"We don't think this is going to swing the supply-demand equation at all," Cassidy told CNBC.
Oversupply by 2029?Traders are also discussing comments from an opinion column in Maeil Business Newspaper, a prominent South Korean publication, in which a reporter urged the country's government to prepare for a slowdown in the AI boom and to identify and develop the next big growth engine.
The writer said that two people — Professor Hwang of the Seoul National University and Ahn Ki-hyun, executive director of the Korea Semiconductor Industry Association — expect to see a "flood of new supply" that will turn the memory market "into a red ocean" in 2029, according to a CNBC translation. By 2030, "the supercycle could be over and the industry could enter a downturn," the writer said.
SpaceX and Tesla CEO Elon Musk responded to the article in a post on X, saying that China "will be making a LOT of RAM in 2028."
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Random access memory (RAM) is produced by the likes of SK Hynix, Samsung and Micron as well as CXMT in China.
An oversupply of RAM in 2029 would pose yet another headwind for memory stocks, with lower prices and a squeeze on profit margins. But a forecast that far out hasn't been echoed by other analysts.
Typically, the biggest customers for memory chips have been consumer electronics companies, because memory is a key component of devices like smartphones and laptops.
But with the AI boom picking up pace, memory has also become a key component of Nvidia chips and other parts of the data center supply chain. With demand increasing, supply has tightened, leading to unprecedented price rises.
That has led to huge rallies in the share price of Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron, the three biggest memory makers. But a key question for investors is whether the industry’s typical boom-and-bust cycle is finally changing.
Memory prices have traditionally surged when demand outstrips supply, only to fall as manufacturers ramp up production and the market becomes oversupplied. Investors are trying to work out if that cycle no longer exists or whether there has been a fundamental change.
All of the major memory makers are currently in the process of expanding capacity, but it takes around three to five years for a factory to be built and come online.
That has led many analysts to forecast that the shortage won't ease until 2028 — but that might not necessarily lead to huge price declines.
Counterpoint Research sees the price of DRAM, another key type of memory, falling around 23% in 2028 compared with 2027. However, the DRAM price would still be up around 230% compared to 2025.
"The current memory market is considered to be in a 'New Normal' era, and the down cycle will differ from previous ones," Jeongku Choi, senior research analyst at Counterpoint Research, told CNBC.
"Suppliers and buyers enter into 3- to 5-year Long-Term Agreements (LTAs), involving substantial upfront payments and established upper and lower price limits to ensure consistency. Consequently, even if a down cycle occurs, it is not expected to show the same sharp decline seen in the past."
— CNBC's Lisa Kim helped contribute to this report.
ASM International (OTCMKTS:ASMIY – Get Free Report) and Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU – Get Free Report) are both large-cap technology companies, but which is the superior business? We will compare the two companies based on the strength of their analyst recommendations, profitability, risk, valuation, earnings, institutional ownership and dividends.
Institutional and Insider Ownership
0.0% of ASM International shares are owned by institutional investors. Comparatively, 80.8% of Micron Technology shares are owned by institutional investors. 24.4% of ASM International shares are owned by insiders. Comparatively, 0.2% of Micron Technology shares are owned by insiders. Strong institutional ownership is an indication that endowments, hedge funds and large money managers believe a stock will outperform the market over the long term.
Risk and Volatility
ASM International has a beta of 2.03, meaning that its share price is 103% more volatile than the S&P 500. Comparatively, Micron Technology has a beta of 2.22, meaning that its share price is 122% more volatile than the S&P 500.
Valuation and Earnings
This table compares ASM International and Micron Technology”s top-line revenue, earnings per share (EPS) and valuation.
Gross Revenue
Price/Sales Ratio
Net Income
Earnings Per Share
Price/Earnings Ratio
ASM International
$3.59 billion
12.31
$818.79 million
$25.50
35.46
Micron Technology has higher revenue and earnings than ASM International. Micron Technology is trading at a lower price-to-earnings ratio than ASM International, indicating that it is currently the more affordable of the two stocks.
Dividends
ASM International pays an annual dividend of $3.23 per share and has a dividend yield of 0.4%. Micron Technology pays an annual dividend of $0.60 per share and has a dividend yield of 0.1%. ASM International pays out 12.7% of its earnings in the form of a dividend. Micron Technology pays out 0.8% of its earnings in the form of a dividend. Both companies have healthy payout ratios and should be able to cover their dividend payments with earnings for the next several years.
Profitability
This table compares ASM International and Micron Technology’s net margins, return on equity and return on assets.
Net Margins
Return on Equity
Return on Assets
ASM International
31.94%
22.22%
16.33%
Micron Technology
63.80%
92.62%
66.29%
Analyst Recommendations
This is a breakdown of current ratings and price targets for ASM International and Micron Technology, as reported by MarketBeat.com.
Micron Technology has a consensus target price of $1,407.88, suggesting a potential upside of 54.01%. Given Micron Technology’s stronger consensus rating and higher possible upside, analysts clearly believe Micron Technology is more favorable than ASM International.
Summary
Micron Technology beats ASM International on 13 of the 17 factors compared between the two stocks.
(Get Free Report)
ASM International NV, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the research, development, manufacture, marketing, and servicing of equipment and materials used to produce semiconductor devices in Europe, the United States, and Asia. The company’s products include wafer processing deposition systems for atomic layer deposition (ALD), epitaxy, silicon carbide, plasma enhanced chemical vapor deposition (PECVD), and vertical furnace systems, including low pressure chemical vapor deposition (LPCVD), diffusion, and oxidation products, as well as provides spare parts and support services. It also manufactures and sells equipment, which is used in wafer processing, encompassing the fabrication steps in which silicon wafers are layered with semiconductor devices. The company offers its products to semiconductor manufacturers. The company was formerly known as Advanced Semiconductor Materials International NV. ASM International NV was incorporated in 1968 and is headquartered in Almere, the Netherlands.
About Micron Technology
(Get Free Report)
Micron Technology, Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, and sells memory and storage products worldwide. The company operates through four segments: Compute and Networking Business Unit, Mobile Business Unit, Embedded Business Unit, and Storage Business Unit. It provides memory and storage technologies comprising dynamic random access memory semiconductor devices with low latency that provide high-speed data retrieval; non-volatile and re-writeable semiconductor storage devices; and non-volatile re-writable semiconductor memory devices that provide fast read speeds under the Micron and Crucial brands, as well as through private labels. The company offers memory products for the cloud server, enterprise, client, graphics, networking, industrial, and automotive markets, as well as for smartphone and other mobile-device markets; SSDs and component-level solutions for the enterprise and cloud, client, and consumer storage markets; discrete storage products in component and wafers; and memory and storage products for the automotive, industrial, and consumer markets. It markets its products through its direct sales force, independent sales representatives, distributors, and retailers; and web-based customer direct sales channel, as well as through channel and distribution partners. Micron Technology, Inc. was founded in 1978 and is headquartered in Boise, Idaho.
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