Baird varuje, že boom paměťových čipů nemusí vydržet, protože hyperscalery hledají alternativy k drahé HBM a DRAM. Micron dnes po zavření trhu zveřejní výsledky.
Baird Investment Strategist Ross Mayfield recently appeared on CNBC to push back against the prevailing narrative that the memory cycle has been permanently rewired by AI demand, framing the bull case for Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU | MU Price Prediction) as a position-management problem rather than a definite outcome. His warning comes on a charged day, with Micron reporting fiscal Q3 2026 earnings tonight, June 24, after the market closes. The stock fell roughly 13% on Wednesday as traders reset expectations ahead of the report.
Mayfield’s core argument is that memory remains structurally cyclical, and price matters. It is a seller’s market today, but if elevated DRAM and HBM prices are expected to persist deep into 2027 and 2028, the largest buyers have both the capital and the motivation to engineer their way around Micron’s pricing power. He pointed to companies like Google and Broadcom pursuing compression software and custom-built silicon, and Amazon exploring in-house designs, as evidence that hyperscaler capex can be redirected when memory becomes a constraint rather than a commodity.
The Setup Mayfield Is Worried About Mayfield characterized memory names as up roughly “1,000%” in a year on air. Micron closed at $1,051.77 on June 23, 2026, against $121.78 a year earlier, a 763.64% one-year move. Year-to-date, Micron is up 268.68%, and over five years, the stock has returned 1,238.55%. The market cap now sits near $1.37 trillion, with a trailing P/E around 57 and a forward multiple near 11.
In fiscal Q2 2026, Micron reported $23.86 billion in revenue, non-GAAP EPS of $12.20, and a GAAP gross margin of 74.4%, up from 36.8% a year earlier. Management guided Q3 to revenue of $33.5 billion plus or minus $750 million and a gross margin of approximately 81%. CEO Sanjay Mehrotra told investors that “In the AI era, memory has become a strategic asset for our customers” as the board approved a 30% dividend increase.
Why Margins Are Important for the Industry Mayfield’s core point: an 81% gross margin guide is the kind of number that invites competition. Micron’s Cloud Memory segment posted a 74% gross margin and a 66% operating margin in Q2, with $7.75 billion in revenue.
Hyperscalers paying these prices have a strong incentive to fund alternatives. Google’s TPU roadmap, Amazon’s Trainium silicon, and Meta’s MTIA program already lean on architectural tricks that reduce HBM dependency per training run. Broadcom continues to ship custom ASIC programs for the same buyers. Memory demand remains intact, but this dynamic caps how long suppliers can price as if memory were uniquely scarce.
The historical pattern reinforces the caution. Just two fiscal years ago, Micron was reporting negative EPS through the 2023 trough. The recovery has been steep: $1.56 in Q3 FY2025, $4.78 in Q2 FY2026, and $12.20 in Q3 FY2026. Order books are reportedly extending into 2027, but Mayfield’s question is what 2027-2028 capacity and pricing look like once new fabs ramp and customer workarounds mature.
Key Takeaways for Micron Mayfield’s warning is that Micron’s extraordinary profitability today may encourage the world’s largest technology companies to build alternatives. Micron’s earnings report tonight will help determine whether AI-driven demand remains powerful enough to outweigh that risk.
Micron po prudkém růstu dostal cílovou cenu 731 USD, což znamená pokles o 30,5 % z 1 051,77 USD; model doporučuje prodat. Tržby za fiskální 2. čtvrtletí vyskočily na 23,86 miliardy USD a EPS podle non-GAAP byl 12,20 USD.
Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU | MU Price Prediction) has gone vertical. The stock is up 268.68% year to date and 763.64% over the past year, riding an AI memory super-cycle that has reshaped the company’s earnings power. Our proprietary model says the rally has run ahead of the fundamentals.
Our 24/7 Wall St. price target for Micron is $731, which implies 30.5% downside from $1,051.77. The recommendation is sell, with a confidence level of 90%, the highest band our framework assigns.
Metric Value Current Price $1,051.77 24/7 Wall St. Price Target $731 Upside/Downside -30.5% Recommendation SELL Confidence Level 90% Why We Could Be Wrong Before diving in, our 24/7 Wall St. price target sits well below where Micron trades today, and the bull arguments are real. Memory pricing could stay tight through 2027 as hyperscaler HBM orders compound, and Micron’s status as the only U.S.-based memory manufacturer gives it pricing power competitors cannot match. Treat $731 as one datapoint. The full bull case is below.
A 779% Rally Meets Reality Micron has compounded from $119.84 last June through $441.07 at the March 18 Q2 filing to current levels, including a 40.05% gain in the last month alone. Yesterday brought the first crack: shares fell 13.18% in a single session.
The fundamentals justify a re-rating, just not this much of one. Fiscal Q2 2026 revenue hit $23.86 billion, up 196.29% year over year, with non-GAAP EPS of $12.20 beating expectations. Q3 guidance calls for $33.5 billion in revenue and roughly 81% gross margin. CEO Sanjay Mehrotra said “in the AI era, memory has become a strategic asset.”
The Case for $1,266 and Higher Bulls argue Micron’s order book stretches into 2027 and that HBM allocations are sold out. Q2 Cloud Memory revenue reached $7.749 billion at 74% gross margin. If forward EPS runs closer to a $19.15 quarterly pace, annualized power approaches $75 to $80.
A 16x multiple on that gets bulls to roughly $1,266, matching our model’s bull case of $1,266.29. Of 44 covering analysts, 9 rate it Strong Buy and 30 rate it Buy.
What Could Go Wrong Memory is cyclical, and at 53x trailing earnings, Micron is priced for a non-cyclical outcome. Forward P/E sits at 11x, which only works if the current peak margin holds. Insider activity is a red flag. CEO Mehrotra sold heavily on May 29, 2026, at prices between $942 and $979 across 30 transactions.
Total insider activity in the window shows net selling across 102 transactions. Bulls would counter that much of this is scheduled 10b5-1 selling against equity grants. The bear case scenario lands at $539.57, a 48.7% drawdown.
Micron Price Prediction 2026-2030 The 24/7 Wall St. price target is $731, the recommendation is sell, and confidence is 90%. The forward P/E-based value of $298.90 is the tell: even granting bulls a generous multiple, the math does not stretch to $1,050.
The bull case strengthens if memory pricing stays peak-cycle through 2027 and HBM4 ramps push EPS above $30. The setup weakens if Q3 results merely meet guidance, because the stock now requires beats to defend the multiple.
Looking further ahead, here is where our model projects Micron could trade, assuming memory normalizes from peak-cycle margins back toward mid-cycle averages.
Year 24/7 Wall St. Price Target 2026 $852 2027 $731 2028 $660 2029 $600 2030 $560 These projections assume Micron continues executing but that memory pricing reverts toward historical mid-cycle levels. Significant upside could come from sustained HBM scarcity, while downside could accelerate if hyperscaler capex slows.
Micron dnes večer ukáže nejen výsledky, ale hlavně poptávku po HBM, která je klíčová pro AI servery. Pro investory do Nvidie to může být první rychlý test síly výdajů do AI.
That’s because Micron has become one of the most important suppliers in the artificial intelligence supply chain.
This Isn’t Just A Micron Earnings ReportWall Street will certainly be watching revenue, earnings and guidance. But investors may be paying even closer attention to commentary surrounding high-bandwidth memory, or HBM.
HBM has emerged as one of the most critical components inside modern AI servers. The technology works alongside Nvidia’s AI accelerators, helping process and move enormous amounts of data needed to train and run large language models.
In simple terms, no HBM means no cutting-edge AI system. As demand for AI infrastructure has exploded, Micron has become one of the biggest beneficiaries.
The Real Question Is AI SpendingInvestors aren’t just looking for signs that Micron is executing well.
Strong HBM demand, improving pricing and bullish commentary about future orders would suggest that hyperscale customers continue to invest heavily in AI data centers.
That would be welcome news for Nvidia, whose growth story remains heavily tied to ongoing AI spending.
On the other hand, any signs of slowing demand could raise questions about whether the AI buildout is beginning to moderate.
Why Nvidia Investors Are WatchingNvidia has become the face of the AI revolution, but Micron sits closer to the underlying infrastructure. While Nvidia sells the processors, Micron helps provide the memory required to make those systems work.
That gives Micron’s management team a unique vantage point into one of Wall Street’s most important themes.
As a result, Wednesday’s earnings report could serve as more than just an update on Micron’s business. It may become one of the market’s first real-time checks on the health of the broader AI spending boom.
And for Nvidia investors, that could make Micron’s earnings one of the most important reports of the quarter.
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SK hynix začne 10. července obchodovat ADR na Nasdaq, čímž investorům v USA otevře přístup k lídrovi trhu s HBM s podílem 57 %. Micron tím ale nepřichází o sílu, protože poptávka po paměťových čipech dál převyšuje nabídku.
The artificial intelligence boom has created winners across the semiconductor industry, but few areas have benefited more recently than memory chips. Every AI server needs vast amounts of high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and DRAM to feed increasingly powerful processors from Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA | NVDA Price Prediction), Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD), and others. Without memory, even the fastest AI chip becomes a bottleneck.
That demand has transformed memory manufacturers into some of the market’s biggest winners. In the U.S., no company has benefited more than Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU). The stock has surged roughly 270% year-to-date and 726% over the past year, even after suffering a 13% pullback during yesterday’s selloff.
Yet a new development could alter where investors put their next dollar. South Korean memory giant SK hynix plans to begin trading American depositary receipts (ADRs) on the Nasdaq on July 10.
The question isn’t whether Micron remains a strong investment. It does. The real question is whether SK hynix now deserves a larger share of new capital.
The AI Memory Shortage Remains Intact The investment case for memory stocks remains straightforward. AI infrastructure spending continues to accelerate.
The world’s four largest hyperscalers are expected to spend hundreds of billions of dollars on AI infrastructure this year, and memory remains one of the industry’s tightest supply constraints. According to industry market-share data, three companies effectively control the entire HBM market:
Company HBM Market Share SK hynix 57% Samsung Electronics 22% Micron Technology 21% Those numbers tell investors something important. While Micron has become the primary U.S. beneficiary of the AI memory boom, SK hynix remains the industry’s dominant supplier.
The story looks similar in DRAM.
Company DRAM Market Share Samsung Electronics 38% SK hynix 29% Micron Technology 22% Others 11% In both critical memory categories, three companies control nearly the entire market. That’s a powerful position when demand continues to exceed supply.
Micron Is Still Winning Let’s be clear: nothing about SK hynix’s Nasdaq listing weakens Micron’s business. The memory chipmaker remains my favorite stock to own in 2026. The company has successfully moved up the value chain, becoming a major supplier of HBM used in AI accelerators. Revenue, margins, and earnings have all benefited from rising memory prices and persistent shortages.
Perhaps most importantly, Micron remains the only major U.S.-based producer competing at the highest levels of the memory market. That strategic position has become increasingly valuable as governments and customers seek supply-chain diversification.
Granted, Micron’s stock has delivered enormous gains. After a 726% run over the past year, expectations are far higher today than they were 12 months ago. That doesn’t make the stock unattractive, but it does raise the hurdle for future returns.
Why SK hynix Changes the Investment Equation SK hynix’s Nasdaq arrival gives U.S. investors something they haven’t had before: easy access to the memory industry’s market-share leader.
Surprisingly, many American investors have owned Micron simply because it was the most accessible pure-play memory stock available in U.S. markets. Beginning July 10, they’ll be able to buy shares in the company controlling 57% of the HBM market and holding the No. 2 position in DRAM.
That changes the calculus. If investors are looking to deploy fresh capital into the AI memory theme, SK hynix may offer the stronger opportunity because it leads the most important segment of the AI memory market. HBM has become the fuel powering modern AI systems, and SK hynix currently occupies the driver’s seat.
That said, this doesn’t create a sell signal for Micron. Far from it. The memory shortage remains intact, AI spending continues rising, and Micron still controls 21% of the HBM market and 22% of the DRAM market.
Key Takeaway In short, investors don’t need to dump Micron because SK hynix is joining the Nasdaq. Micron remains one of the strongest ways to invest in the AI infrastructure buildout and continues to benefit from robust demand for HBM and DRAM.
However, SK hynix’s July 10 ADR listing introduces a compelling new option, as it holds stronger competitive positions in the two memory categories driving AI growth. For investors putting new money to work after the recent selloff, SK hynix may deserve a larger allocation.
Ultimately, the smartest move may not be choosing one over the other. The AI memory shortage appears likely to persist for years, and owning the companies that dominate the market could prove far more important than trying to pick a single winner.
Before Micron Technology’s (NASDAQ:MU | MU Price Prediction) fiscal Q3 2026 results, Stephanie Link of Hightower told CNBC viewers what most retail traders watching a parabolic chart do not want to hear. The fundamentals are fine. The entry point is the problem. Micron is up 229% year to date after a run from $285.28 at the end of 2025 to $1,051.77 at Monday’s close, and Link wants you to wait.
What Link actually said Her exact framing on the segment was direct. “This stock is up 268% year to date. We’re short memory. ASPs are going to be north of 30 to 35%. I think the guidance is going to be great. I think it’s going to be a great report. Just high expectations. Wait for a pullback. You know I’m thinking like 10, 15%, 20%. I think that’s when you can buy.”
Link’s argument is with the cushion. The cycle itself looks healthy. DRAM supply is tight, hyperscalers are still writing capex checks like the cloud build needs another rerun, and Micron has been raising guidance at a cadence that makes the sell-side look quaint. The question on a day like today is whether a stock that already moved 40.05% in the past month can absorb good news without a digestion period.
The numbers behind the run The Q2 fiscal 2026 report Micron delivered in March set the stage for everything that has happened since. Revenue came in at $23.86 billion, up 196.3% year over year, beating the $19.51 billion consensus by 22.28%. Non-GAAP EPS landed at $12.20 against an $8.73 estimate. GAAP gross margin expanded to 74.4% from 36.8% a year earlier, an operating-leverage profile you usually only see in software businesses pretending to be hardware.
Then management guided fiscal Q3 to $33.5 billion in revenue, $19.15 in non-GAAP EPS, and roughly 81% gross margin. CEO Sanjay Mehrotra framed it succinctly in the Q2 release, saying “In the AI era, memory has become a strategic asset for our customers” while the board pushed through a 30% dividend increase to $0.15 per share. The same filing, documents $650 million in repurchases over the six months ended February 26, 2026.
Why expectations are the real risk Link’s caution has receipts. The Polymarket contract for tonight’s report prices a 96.65% probability that Micron beats the $19.66 non-GAAP EPS estimate. Options markets agree something is coming, with one widely shared r/options post noting implied volatility at the 98th percentile heading into the report.
When the prediction market consensus is functionally certain and the options chain is pricing a panic-grade move, a clean beat may already be in the stock. Reddit sentiment captured the tension, with one popular post observing that “MU is pricing in some insanely abnormal panic” the night before earnings.
The Tom Lee counterpoint Tom Lee of Fundstrat offered the patient man’s rebuttal on the same segment. “Investors have actually benefited from taking a longer time horizon on a lot of these ideas. There’s a lot of visibility and that’s pretty scarce when you look outside of AI.”
His point reframes Link’s tactical concern. If order books really extend into 2027 and HBM remains supply-constrained, then trying to thread a 15% pullback risks underweighting an asset that keeps repricing higher between dips.
What to watch tonight Three things matter when results hit. First, whether the company guides fiscal Q4 above the implicit run rate set by tonight’s $33.5 billion midpoint. Second, whether HBM allocations stretch deeper into calendar 2027, which would validate the supply-tightness thesis Link cited.
Third, the reaction itself. A muted move on a clean beat is exactly the pullback Link is waiting for, and the stock already gave back 1.63% on Tuesday’s session before the report. Patience and conviction are both defensible here. The trade is choosing which one matches your time horizon.
Micron Technology zveřejní výsledky za třetí čtvrtletí po uzavření trhu; Wall Street čeká výnosy 35,5 miliardy USD a EPS 20,39 USD. Akcie MU jsou po letošním růstu o více než 722 % na historickém maximu 1 213,56 USD.
Micron Technology Inc will release its third-quarter earnings after the markets close on Wednesday.
Despite fears of an AI bubble, Wall Street predicts positive results. Micron could report $35.5 billion in revenue—a 281% jump year-over-year (YOY), according to a Bloomberg analyst consensus cited by Yahoo Finance.
Its DRAM (memory) and NAND (storage) revenues are expected to grow 288% and 256% YOY, respectively.
Micron is also predicted by Bloomberg’s analysts to have earnings per share of $20.39, about a 967% increase YOY. However, consensus estimates cited by CNBC expect EPS to range from $20.17 to $20.42.
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Micron had a successful yearThe earnings report will come just two days after Micron’s shares (Nasdaq: MU) reached a new all-time high of $1,213.56. The stock price is up over 722% YOY and $268 year-to-date (YTD).
Shares of Micron have occasionally dropped alongside those of other chip manufacturers due to fears about over-investment in AI and the infrastructure that powers it.
Just yesterday, shares dropped more than 13% in response to concerns about a stock bubble in South Korea, following a large selloff and losses for both Samsung’s and SK Hynik’s shares.
Explore Topicschipsmarketssemiconductor chipsstocksTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company
CJ Muse z Cantor Fitzgerald tvrdí, že u pamětí bude nabídka v roce 2027 ještě těsnější než v roce 2026, což může podpořit růst zisků Micronu i v roce 2028.
CJ Muse went on CNBC this morning and made the case that the memory cycle most investors are watching does not actually peak where they think it peaks. “The real takeaway for memory is that supply is going to be even tighter in 27 than 26,” the Cantor Fitzgerald semiconductor analyst said, “and because of that you can actually think about earnings growth and not only 27 but also 28.” That is the bullish framing investors will be testing against tonight’s fiscal Q3 numbers from Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU | MU Price Prediction), which the company has confirmed will land after the close on June 24, 2026.
Why Muse is anchoring on 2028 The Cantor argument is essentially a duration trade dressed up as a memory call. If hyperscaler compute demand keeps growing through 2029 and 2030, then DRAM and HBM supply, which takes years and tens of billions of dollars to add, simply cannot catch up in the window analysts currently model. Muse pointed to the gap between compute and memory multiples as the giveaway. “If you look at compute multiples memory multiples there’s still significant upside,” he said, “as long as you underwrite the demand for compute, not peaking in 28, but extending into 2930 and beyond.”
The number doing the heavy work in Muse’s framework is $200. “I think the bulls are thinking about $200 of earnings for micron next calendar year. And if that’s right, you’re talking about a stock trading at five times,” he told CNBC, calling that a multiple he does not believe represents the right peak for the name. Micron closed Monday at $1,051.77. The stock is up 229% year to date and 717% over the past year. The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (NYSEARCA:SMH), for what it is worth, is on pace for its best first half since inception in 2000.
What the last quarter already told us Last quarter is the reason Muse can talk about this with a straight face. Micron’s fiscal Q2 2026, reported March 18, 2026, delivered revenue of $23.86 billion against an $19.51 billion estimate, with non-GAAP EPS of $12.20 versus $9.31 expected. GAAP gross margin reached 74.4%, up from 36.8% a year earlier, and the company guided fiscal Q3 to $33.5 billion in revenue plus or minus $750 million with non-GAAP gross margin near 81%. You can read the full 8-K press release on the SEC’s site.
CEO Sanjay Mehrotra framed the demand picture more soberly than the numbers might suggest. “In the AI era, memory has become a strategic asset for our customers, and we are investing in our global manufacturing footprint to support their growing demand,” he said in the release. The capex line is what makes Muse’s thesis interesting. New fabs ordered today come online in 2028 at the earliest, which leaves 2027 supply largely fixed.
SanDisk is telling you the same story If you want a second data point, look at SanDisk (NASDAQ:SNDK), the NAND-focused spinoff trading at $1,930 after a 601% year-to-date move. Its most recent quarter posted revenue of $5.95 billion, up 251% year over year.
Datacenter revenue alone grew 645%. CEO David Goeckeler flagged what he called “a structural memory shortage unlikely to ease before 2028” in earlier commentary, language that lines up almost exactly with Muse’s framing.
What to actually watch tonight Polymarket has the crowd pricing a 96.7% probability that Micron beats on the bottom line tonight, against a consensus EPS estimate of $19.66. The beat itself matters less than whether management’s guide and any commentary about HBM3E allocations through 2027 validate the $200 EPS bull case Muse is using.
Analyst consensus targets sit below the current price, with 39 buys, 4 holds, and 1 sell. Sell side has been chasing the move.
The risk Muse himself flags is whether AI workload growth genuinely extends into 2029 and 2030, or whether new capacity arrives faster than the bulls expect. Tonight will not settle that. The order book commentary on the call might.
Micron Technology MU heads into earnings Wednesday with investors looking for more than just another beat. The memory giant's results are expected to offer one of the clearest reads yet on AI spending, semiconductor demand and whether the industry's momentum can continue into 2027 and beyond.
Wall Street expects Micron to report Q3 revenue of $35.25 billion and EPS of $20.28, representing growth of roughly 279% from a year ago. The company has beaten both revenue and earnings estimates in each of the last 8 quarters, raising expectations yet again heading into the report.
Micron shares have surged about 270% this year as demand for AI memory chips continues to outstrip supply. Analysts remain broadly bullish, pointing to strong DRAM pricing, tight industry capacity and robust AI demand. Over the past 3 months, analysts have issued 19 upward EPS revisions and 20 upward revenue revisions, with virtually no downward changes.
Beyond the headline numbers, investors will be listening closely for updates on DRAM and NAND pricing, capacity commitments for 2027 and whether customers are already locking in supply for 2028.
Micron zveřejní výsledky po uzavření trhu a opční trh už počítá s pohybem asi 11 % oběma směry. Firma navíc čeká tržby 33,5 miliardy USD a hrubou marži kolem 81 %.
Micron stock NASDAQ:MU reports fiscal third-quarter earnings after the US market close on Wednesday, and the options market has already marked the event as a potential shock.
The stock has been one of the biggest AI winners of the year, with gains of more than 800% over the past 12 months and a market value that has pushed above $1 trillion.
That makes tonight’s print a test of whether the AI hardware boom can keep outrunning even the most aggressive expectations.
The options chain was already telling that story before a single number dropped.
Saxo Bank said Micron’s near-term options were pricing in an implied move of about 11% in either direction after earnings.
That does not mean traders are betting the stock will rise 11%. It means the market is attaching a high price to uncertainty.
Based on a reference stock price of $1,172.30, Saxo said the options market was implying a post-earnings range of roughly $1,066 to $1,331.
That is a very wide earnings window, even for a stock that has become central to the AI trade.
The reason is volatility, as Saxo pegged front-week implied volatility at about 155%, compared with roughly 109% for July options.
In plain English, the market is charging a huge premium for options that cover the earnings event.
That creates a risk known as “IV crush”. Once the results are out, that event premium can disappear quickly.
A trader can get the direction right and still lose money if Micron’s actual move is smaller than the move already priced into the option.
For ordinary investors, the message is simpler: the market expects fireworks, but it is not saying which way the blast goes.
The reason traders are willing to price such a large move is that Micron is no longer being treated like a normal memory-cycle stock.
TD Cowen analyst Krish Sankar recently lifted his price target on Micron to $1,500 from $660. The core of his argument was blunt: the role of memory in AI is “structural rather than cyclical”.
That phrase matters as memory stocks have historically moved through boom-and-bust cycles. Prices rise, manufacturers add supply, margins peak, and the cycle eventually rolls over.
Wall Street is now asking whether AI has changed that pattern.
Bank of America’s Vivek Arya also raised his Micron target to $1,500 from $950. The timing was notable because the upgrade came as the stock was selling off.
That made the call less like a momentum chase and more like a statement of conviction.
Other target increases have followed the same direction.
TheStreet cited UBS at $1,625, Needham at $1,550, and several other firms clustered well above the stock’s recent trading range.
The fundamental story is high-bandwidth memory, or HBM. These chips sit alongside advanced AI accelerators and are essential for training and running large models.
Supply remains tight, pricing power has extended, and analysts are increasingly treating Micron as a core AI infrastructure beneficiary rather than a commodity memory maker.
Micron’s own guidance has raised the bar. The company guided for fiscal Q3 revenue of $33.5 billion at the midpoint and gross margin of about 81%.
For a memory chipmaker, that margin level would be extraordinary, but it also leaves little room for disappointment.
