Track market-moving stories before they get noisy

Bollard Group LLC boosted its stake in shares of Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) by 14.0% in the undefined quarter, according to the company in its most recent Form 13F filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The firm owned 247,477 shares of the financial services provider's stock after buying an additional 30,360

Morgan Stanley stock has wavered recently, evem as the Wall Street company published strong financial results. MS was trading at $218, a few points below its all-time high of $232. This consolidation may lead to a strong rebound after a major Goldman Sachs prediction.

Morgan Stanley is benefiting from major trends in the US this year. Mega IPOs are rising, and analysts expect that merger and acquisition (M&A) deals will accelerate in the near term. 

Morgan Stanley was one of the banks that made a windfall from the recent SpaceX IPO. It is estimated that the company made over $100 million in the process.

The bank will likely benefit from more IPOs, including companies like Anthropic and OpenAI. 

Most notably, Goldman Sachs analysts predict that the merger and acquisition boom has more room to run. Announced M&A deals have jumped by 32% this year to $1.2 trillion. The number of announced deals has soared by 12% in then same period. 

In a report, the bank said that this trend will continue, helped by a steady economic growth, healthy CEO confidence, and a favorable regulatory backdrop. The bank added that: 

“Likely M&A targets should benefit from the ongoing surge in M&A activity, which does not appear to be fully priced in their valuations.”

If this is correct, then Morgan Stanley will be one of the top beneficiaries. Dealogic data estimates that it is the third in the M&A industry this year after Goldman and JPMorgan. It has been involved in deals worth over $831 billion. 

The company also ranks third in the equity capital markets (ECM) bookrunning with its deal value rising to $51 billion. It has also become a major player in debt raising industry.

These numbers are confirmed by its recent financial results, which showed that its net revenue jumped by 27% YoY to $21.3 billion. It was a $1 billion increase from the previous quarter. 

Institutional securities revenue rose by 44% to $11 billion, while its wealth and investment management rose by 14% and 6%, respectively. These ones rose to $8.8 billion and $1.6 billion. Notably, the provision for credit losses dropped to just $98 million during the quarter. Ted Pick, the CEO said:

“Differentiated content from our Research teams continues to drive high levels of client engagement. Wealth Management added a record $148 billion in net new assets, with total client assets across Wealth and Investment Management reaching the $10 trillion milestone.”

MS stock chart | Source: TradingView

Technically, however, the MS stock price will need to overcome the double-top pattern at $230, and whose neckline is at $230. Also, the stock needs to overcome the mean reversion risk. Mean reversion is a situation where an asset normally moves to its historical averages. In this case, the stock is much higher than the 200-day moving average of $184. 

Therefore, there is a risk that it will pull back in the near term because of its weak technicals. On the other hand, a move above the key resistance level of $230 will point to more gains, potentially to the key resistance at $250.

NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Morgan Stanley Wealth Management today announced the results of its quarterly retail investor pulse survey: Bullishness ticks up. Over three in five (62%) investors are bullish this quarter, up from 56% last quarter, while 66% expect markets to move higher by quarter-end compared to 55% in Q2. Concern for volatility remains pronounced, but eases slightly. Fewer investors expect volatility to rise this quarter, with 61% anticipating an increase compared to 63% last qua.

Posted by Defense World Staff on Jul 21st, 2026

Andra AP fonden grew its position in shares of Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS – Free Report) by 783.9% during the first quarter, according to its most recent disclosure with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The institutional investor owned 173,220 shares of the financial services provider’s stock after purchasing an additional 153,623 shares during the quarter. Andra AP fonden’s holdings in Morgan Stanley were worth $28,507,000 as of its most recent SEC filing.

Other institutional investors and hedge funds also recently made changes to their positions in the company. Brighton Jones LLC boosted its position in shares of Morgan Stanley by 10.2% during the 4th quarter. Brighton Jones LLC now owns 12,782 shares of the financial services provider’s stock worth $1,607,000 after purchasing an additional 1,185 shares in the last quarter. Main Street Financial Solutions LLC boosted its holdings in Morgan Stanley by 69.0% in the second quarter. Main Street Financial Solutions LLC now owns 8,964 shares of the financial services provider’s stock worth $1,263,000 after acquiring an additional 3,661 shares in the last quarter. Diversify Advisory Services LLC grew its stake in Morgan Stanley by 90.9% in the second quarter. Diversify Advisory Services LLC now owns 16,148 shares of the financial services provider’s stock valued at $2,378,000 after acquiring an additional 7,688 shares during the period. DZ BANK AG Deutsche Zentral Genossenschafts Bank Frankfurt am Main increased its holdings in shares of Morgan Stanley by 6.3% during the second quarter. DZ BANK AG Deutsche Zentral Genossenschafts Bank Frankfurt am Main now owns 263,575 shares of the financial services provider’s stock valued at $37,127,000 after acquiring an additional 15,623 shares in the last quarter. Finally, Jupiter Wealth Management LLC increased its holdings in shares of Morgan Stanley by 7.8% during the second quarter. Jupiter Wealth Management LLC now owns 52,825 shares of the financial services provider’s stock valued at $7,805,000 after acquiring an additional 3,807 shares in the last quarter. Institutional investors and hedge funds own 84.19% of the company’s stock.

Analyst Ratings Changes A number of equities analysts recently issued reports on MS shares. Daiwa Securities Group increased their target price on Morgan Stanley from $175.00 to $198.00 and gave the stock a “neutral” rating in a report on Tuesday, May 5th. CICC Research lifted their price objective on shares of Morgan Stanley from $175.00 to $200.00 and gave the company an “outperform” rating in a report on Tuesday, May 19th. Erste Group Bank raised shares of Morgan Stanley from a “hold” rating to a “buy” rating in a research report on Monday, April 27th. Argus upped their target price on shares of Morgan Stanley from $210.00 to $225.00 and gave the stock a “buy” rating in a report on Thursday, April 16th. Finally, UBS Group raised their price target on shares of Morgan Stanley from $214.00 to $255.00 and gave the company a “buy” rating in a research report on Tuesday, July 7th. Two research analysts have rated the stock with a Strong Buy rating, twelve have assigned a Buy rating, eleven have assigned a Hold rating and one has issued a Sell rating to the company’s stock. According to data from MarketBeat.com, Morgan Stanley has a consensus rating of “Moderate Buy” and an average target price of $222.60.

Check Out Our Latest Stock Report on Morgan Stanley

Morgan Stanley Price Performance MS opened at $210.98 on Tuesday. Morgan Stanley has a fifty-two week low of $136.17 and a fifty-two week high of $232.25. The firm has a 50-day moving average of $212.09 and a 200 day moving average of $189.00. The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 3.52, a quick ratio of 0.77 and a current ratio of 0.77. The firm has a market cap of $332.78 billion, a P/E ratio of 17.06, a PEG ratio of 1.56 and a beta of 1.23.

Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS – Get Free Report) last posted its quarterly earnings data on Wednesday, July 15th. The financial services provider reported $3.46 EPS for the quarter, beating the consensus estimate of $2.89 by $0.57. Morgan Stanley had a return on equity of 19.51% and a net margin of 15.65%.The business had revenue of $21.35 billion for the quarter, compared to the consensus estimate of $19.67 billion. During the same quarter in the prior year, the business earned $2.13 earnings per share. Morgan Stanley’s revenue for the quarter was up 27.1% on a year-over-year basis. On average, research analysts expect that Morgan Stanley will post 12.55 EPS for the current year.

Morgan Stanley announced that its Board of Directors has authorized a share repurchase plan on Wednesday, June 24th that authorizes the company to repurchase $20.00 billion in outstanding shares. This repurchase authorization authorizes the financial services provider to repurchase up to 5.6% of its shares through open market purchases. Shares repurchase plans are usually a sign that the company’s board of directors believes its stock is undervalued.

Morgan Stanley Increases Dividend The business also recently announced a quarterly dividend, which will be paid on Friday, August 14th. Shareholders of record on Friday, July 31st will be paid a $1.15 dividend. The ex-dividend date is Friday, July 31st. This represents a $4.60 annualized dividend and a yield of 2.2%. This is an increase from Morgan Stanley’s previous quarterly dividend of $1.00. Morgan Stanley’s dividend payout ratio is 32.34%.

More Morgan Stanley News Here are the key news stories impacting Morgan Stanley this week:

Positive Sentiment: Morgan Stanley is being recognized as a leader in financing AI-related debt deals, suggesting stronger underwriting and advisory revenue tied to data-center expansion. Morgan Stanley becomes Wall Street’s top bank for AI debt deals Positive Sentiment: New coverage from market outlets also pointed to Morgan Stanley as constructive on broader macro and sector opportunities, including semiconductor and commodity trends, which can help sentiment around its research and client franchise. MarketWatch chip stocks article Neutral Sentiment: Analyst notes and rating updates continued to support expectations for solid earnings, with recent reports raising price targets and forecast estimates for fiscal 2026 and beyond. Morgan Stanley upgraded at Freedom Capital Negative Sentiment: Despite the positive business headlines, the stock was under pressure in a broader risk-off session, which can weigh on large financials even when company-specific news is favorable. Morgan Stanley Profile (Free Report)

Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) is a global financial services firm headquartered in New York City. Founded in 1935 by Henry S. Morgan and Harold Stanley, the company provides a broad range of investment banking, securities, wealth management and investment management services to corporations, governments, institutions and individual investors. Leadership has been guided by a senior executive team and board of directors; James P. Gorman has served as the company’s chief executive and chairman in recent years.

The firm’s primary business activities are organized around three principal businesses: Institutional Securities, Wealth Management and Investment Management.

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Posted by Defense World Staff on Jul 20th, 2026

Dimensional Fund Advisors LP lifted its stake in Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS – Free Report) by 0.9% in the 1st quarter, according to the company in its most recent Form 13F filing with the SEC. The firm owned 7,235,756 shares of the financial services provider’s stock after buying an additional 65,739 shares during the period. Dimensional Fund Advisors LP owned about 0.46% of Morgan Stanley worth $1,190,585,000 at the end of the most recent reporting period.

A number of other institutional investors have also recently bought and sold shares of MS. Scarborough Advisors LLC bought a new position in Morgan Stanley in the first quarter valued at approximately $104,000. Balefire LLC grew its position in shares of Morgan Stanley by 12.5% in the 1st quarter. Balefire LLC now owns 1,875 shares of the financial services provider’s stock valued at $309,000 after purchasing an additional 208 shares during the period. Parallel Advisors LLC boosted its holdings in shares of Morgan Stanley by 1.1% in the first quarter. Parallel Advisors LLC now owns 56,428 shares of the financial services provider’s stock valued at $9,287,000 after buying an additional 638 shares during the period. Ironwood Investment Counsel LLC increased its holdings in Morgan Stanley by 1.7% during the 1st quarter. Ironwood Investment Counsel LLC now owns 17,234 shares of the financial services provider’s stock worth $2,836,000 after purchasing an additional 292 shares in the last quarter. Finally, SEB Asset Management AB acquired a new stake in Morgan Stanley in the 1st quarter valued at approximately $52,602,000. Institutional investors and hedge funds own 84.19% of the company’s stock.

Analyst Ratings Changes Several research analysts have weighed in on the company. CICC Research boosted their price target on Morgan Stanley from $175.00 to $200.00 and gave the stock an “outperform” rating in a research report on Tuesday, May 19th. The Goldman Sachs Group upped their target price on Morgan Stanley from $211.00 to $233.00 and gave the company a “neutral” rating in a research report on Monday, July 6th. Citigroup increased their target price on shares of Morgan Stanley from $220.00 to $235.00 and gave the stock a “neutral” rating in a research report on Friday. Freedom Capital upgraded shares of Morgan Stanley from a “hold” rating to a “strong-buy” rating in a research report on Friday. Finally, BNP Paribas Exane lifted their target price on Morgan Stanley from $195.00 to $205.00 and gave the company a “neutral” rating in a research report on Friday, April 24th. Two analysts have rated the stock with a Strong Buy rating, twelve have issued a Buy rating, eleven have issued a Hold rating and one has assigned a Sell rating to the company. Based on data from MarketBeat, Morgan Stanley currently has a consensus rating of “Moderate Buy” and an average price target of $220.80.

Get Our Latest Research Report on MS

Key Morgan Stanley News Here are the key news stories impacting Morgan Stanley this week:

Positive Sentiment: Morgan Stanley reported blockbuster Q2 2026 results, with record net revenues of about $21.3 billion and earnings that beat expectations, reinforcing confidence in the company’s core businesses. Morgan Stanley (MS) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Highlights: Record Revenues and Strategic Growth … Positive Sentiment: The board declared a quarterly dividend of $1.15 per share, a 15% increase from the prior quarter, which signals confidence in earnings power and capital return capacity. Positive Sentiment: Analysts turned more constructive after the earnings release, with Keefe, Bruyette & Woods raising its price target to $250 and Erste Group lifting FY2027 EPS estimates, suggesting more upside may remain. Morgan Stanley had its price target raised by Keefe, Bruyette & Woods from $225.00 to $250.00 Neutral Sentiment: New reports also pointed to Morgan Stanley’s E*TRADE crypto rollout and AI-related market activity, which could help broaden its platform appeal over time but are not likely the main short-term drivers of the stock move. Negative Sentiment: Some articles noted a downgrade-style view from Seeking Alpha and a JPMorgan target below the current share price, which may temper enthusiasm at the margin even after the strong earnings beat. Morgan Stanley Maintains Hold on Comstock Resources, Keeps Price Target Unchanged at $16 Amid Cash Outspend and Funding Concerns Morgan Stanley Stock Down 0.1% Shares of NYSE MS opened at $215.27 on Monday. The company’s 50 day moving average price is $211.69 and its 200-day moving average price is $188.77. The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 3.52, a quick ratio of 0.77 and a current ratio of 0.77. Morgan Stanley has a 52-week low of $136.17 and a 52-week high of $232.25. The company has a market capitalization of $339.54 billion, a P/E ratio of 17.40, a price-to-earnings-growth ratio of 1.56 and a beta of 1.23.

Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS – Get Free Report) last released its quarterly earnings data on Wednesday, July 15th. The financial services provider reported $3.46 earnings per share for the quarter, beating the consensus estimate of $2.89 by $0.57. Morgan Stanley had a net margin of 15.65% and a return on equity of 19.51%. The company had revenue of $21.35 billion during the quarter, compared to analyst estimates of $19.67 billion. During the same quarter in the previous year, the business posted $2.13 EPS. Morgan Stanley’s revenue for the quarter was up 27.1% compared to the same quarter last year. Equities analysts forecast that Morgan Stanley will post 12.55 earnings per share for the current year.

Morgan Stanley declared that its board has authorized a stock buyback program on Wednesday, June 24th that allows the company to buyback $20.00 billion in outstanding shares. This buyback authorization allows the financial services provider to reacquire up to 5.6% of its stock through open market purchases. Stock buyback programs are usually an indication that the company’s management believes its stock is undervalued.

Morgan Stanley Increases Dividend The company also recently disclosed a quarterly dividend, which will be paid on Friday, August 14th. Shareholders of record on Friday, July 31st will be paid a $1.15 dividend. This represents a $4.60 dividend on an annualized basis and a yield of 2.1%. This is a boost from Morgan Stanley’s previous quarterly dividend of $1.00. The ex-dividend date of this dividend is Friday, July 31st. Morgan Stanley’s payout ratio is 32.34%.

Morgan Stanley Profile (Free Report)

Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) is a global financial services firm headquartered in New York City. Founded in 1935 by Henry S. Morgan and Harold Stanley, the company provides a broad range of investment banking, securities, wealth management and investment management services to corporations, governments, institutions and individual investors. Leadership has been guided by a senior executive team and board of directors; James P. Gorman has served as the company’s chief executive and chairman in recent years.

The firm’s primary business activities are organized around three principal businesses: Institutional Securities, Wealth Management and Investment Management.

See Also Five stocks we like better than Morgan Stanley Strait of Hormuz Tensions Spike Tanker Trade: These 2 Stocks Are Set to Benefit Shopify’s Quiet AI Strategy Could Be Its Biggest Advantage Yet Why These 3 Nuclear ETFs Are Getting a Fresh Look as AI Power Demand Rises 3 Aerospace Suppliers That Could Benefit as Aircraft Makers Face Bottlenecks Want to see what other hedge funds are holding MS? Visit HoldingsChannel.com to get the latest 13F filings and insider trades for Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS – Free Report).

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Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) reported record second-quarter 2026 results, with executives citing strong client activity across institutional securities, wealth management and investment management, as well as continued benefits from the firm’s integrated business model.

Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Ted Pick said the firm generated more than $21 billion in quarterly revenue and earnings per share of $3.46, contributing to what he called an “exceptional first half” of 2026. Chief Financial Officer Sharon Yeshaya said second-quarter revenue was $21.3 billion, return on tangible common equity was 26.6%, and the firm’s year-to-date efficiency ratio was 65%.

Across wealth and investment management, total client assets reached $10 trillion, a strategic milestone Pick said the firm had fulfilled. He said Morgan Stanley is seeking over time to grow standalone wealth assets from the current $8 trillion to $10 trillion.

Institutional Securities Posts Record Revenue Morgan Stanley’s institutional securities segment delivered record revenue of $11 billion and record pre-tax profit of $4.3 billion, according to Yeshaya. She said results were driven by the firm’s equities franchise and supported by investment banking.

Investment banking revenue rose 58% from the prior year to $2.4 billion, reflecting stronger activity across advisory, equity underwriting and fixed income underwriting. Advisory revenue increased to $798 million on higher completed activity, with contributions across industrials, technology and healthcare. Equity underwriting revenue was $851 million, supported by what Yeshaya described as a robust IPO market and strong follow-on and convertible activity. Fixed income underwriting revenue reached a record $788 million, driven by bond issuance from both investment-grade and non-investment-grade companies.

Yeshaya said the investment banking outlook remains “constructive,” with healthy pipelines and broad-based client dialogue. While year-to-date activity has been led by the Americas, she said global activity is building.

Equities revenue reached a record $6.3 billion, with increases across products and regions. Yeshaya said Asia was strong, with activity broadening across the region. Prime brokerage revenue rose from the prior year on higher average client balances and strong activity in Asia, while cash equities benefited from active client engagement and higher market volumes in the Americas. Derivatives results were also described as very strong.

Fixed income revenue was $2.5 billion. Yeshaya said macro results were roughly flat from the prior year, as resilience in rates offset weaker foreign exchange activity in an environment where volatility traded near historic lows. Micro results increased year over year, driven by credit corporates, primary issuance and growth in securitized product lending balances.

Wealth Management Benefits From IPO-Related Flows Wealth management generated record revenue of $8.9 billion and pre-tax profit of $2.7 billion, with a pre-tax margin of 30.5%. Total client assets in the business stood at $8 trillion.

The business recorded $148 billion in net new assets, which Yeshaya said was a record. Fee-based flows were $39 billion, and fee-based assets totaled $3 trillion. Stock plan IPO flows represented just over half of overall net new assets during the quarter, more than offsetting seasonal tax-related outflows.

Yeshaya said the results demonstrated the strength of Morgan Stanley’s workplace channel and the firm’s client acquisition funnel. She said the firm has relationships with about 70% of the top 100 unicorns by market capitalization in its workplace pipeline and now has 20 million “touch points” through workplace and related client relationships.

In response to analyst questions, Yeshaya said workplace-related flows will vary by IPO timing, vesting schedules and other factors. She emphasized that the firm is focused on retaining clients who enter through the workplace channel and moving them toward advice-based relationships where appropriate.

Pick said the wealth management margin has exceeded 30% several times, but added that management is not “solving for” a particular margin number. Instead, he said the firm is focused on driving pre-tax profit growth while continuing to invest in areas that support long-term wallet share gains.

Wealth management net interest income increased to $2.3 billion, supported by higher-than-expected sweep balances and strong loan growth. Yeshaya said the firm expects a modest sequential increase in net interest income in the third quarter.

Investment Management Reaches $2 Trillion in AUM Investment management assets under management reached a record $2 trillion. The segment reported $1.6 billion in revenue, up 6% from the prior year, driven by higher asset management and related fees tied to higher average AUM.

Long-term net inflows were $7.5 billion in the quarter, led by alternatives and solutions, including Parametric, as well as fixed income strategies. Yeshaya said Parametric remains a key differentiator for Morgan Stanley, with more than $760 billion in AUM.

Capital Position Supports Buybacks and Dividend Increase Morgan Stanley ended the quarter with a standardized common equity tier 1 ratio of 14.8%. Yeshaya said total spot assets grew to $1.7 trillion, while standardized risk-weighted assets increased to $590 billion as the firm supported higher client activity.

The firm repurchased $1.5 billion of common stock during the quarter and announced a 15-cent increase in its quarterly dividend, bringing the payout to $1.15 per share. Pick said Morgan Stanley has accreted $18 billion of CET1 capital over the last 10 quarters and has a capital cushion of at least 300 basis points.

During the question-and-answer session, Pick said there is strong demand for the firm’s capital across investment banking, fixed income, equities and wealth management clients. He also said management continues to evaluate potential bolt-on acquisitions, but emphasized that the firm’s bias remains toward organic investment.

Executives Highlight AI, Geopolitics and Deal Activity Pick reiterated two themes he said have come into sharper focus in 2026: the accelerating adoption of artificial intelligence and the return of geopolitics as a major force in the global economy. He said AI-related capital spending expectations continue to rise, citing internal research that projects data center capital expenditures of about $850 billion in 2026, $1.3 trillion in 2027 and potentially $1.5 trillion in 2028.

Pick said the firm’s role in that environment is to advise, finance and allocate capital for clients, though he cautioned that the AI investment cycle remains early and subject to uncertainty from technology, supply chain, geography and nation-state involvement.

On merger and acquisition activity, Pick said the backdrop is favorable, citing what he characterized as a normalization of regulation, strong economic conditions and pent-up activity after prior periods of disruption. Yeshaya said the investment banking cycle began with debt issuance, has broadened into equity activity, and could see additional momentum from financial sponsors.

Pick said Morgan Stanley enters the second half of 2026 “from a position of strength,” with clients seeking advice on complicated global markets and interest in new products and innovation.

About Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) is a global financial services firm headquartered in New York City. Founded in 1935 by Henry S. Morgan and Harold Stanley, the company provides a broad range of investment banking, securities, wealth management and investment management services to corporations, governments, institutions and individual investors. Leadership has been guided by a senior executive team and board of directors; James P. Gorman has served as the company’s chief executive and chairman in recent years.

The firm’s primary business activities are organized around three principal businesses: Institutional Securities, Wealth Management and Investment Management.

NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--E*TRADE from Morgan Stanley today announced the rollout of spot trading in digital assets, giving eligible clients the ability to buy, sell, and hold Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana directly on E*TRADE's award-winning platform1 in partnership with zerohash, a leading digital asset infrastructure provider. The launch comes on the heels of several platform enhancements for investors at every stage of their financial journey, from those just starting out, to active traders.

4:15pm: Apple surges, inflation cools Stocks finished higher on Wednesday as another softer-than-expected inflation report reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve could keep interest rates on hold in the months ahead.

The Dow Jones rose 150 points, or 0.3%, while the S&P 500 gained 0.4% and the Nasdaq climbed 0.6%.

Investors welcomed June's Producer Price Index report, which showed wholesale prices fell 0.3% during the month, adding to optimism after Tuesday's cooler consumer inflation data.

Apple was a standout performer, rising 4% to a record closing high of $327.50. The rally followed reports that the iPhone maker received approval to roll out its generative AI features in China, a key market for the company.

Investors also looked ahead to a fresh round of earnings. United Airlines is set to report results after the closing bell, while Thursday's earnings calendar includes Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSMC), UnitedHealth Group, GE Aerospace and Abbott Laboratories (NYSE:ABT), giving investors another read on corporate performance and the health of key sectors of the economy.

3:40pm: Proactive news headlines Purepoint Uranium Group Inc (TSX-V:PTU, OTCQX:PTUUF, FRA:P5X0) CEO Chris Frostad said Canada and the United States must address growing uranium supply challenges as nuclear expansion plans accelerate and geopolitical tensions reshape global supply chains. VivoPower PLC (NASDAQ:VIVO, FRA:51J) said the limited availability of power-secured, renewable-backed sites is becoming a key constraint for AI infrastructure growth and is positioning its platform to meet rising demand across multiple markets. Century Lithium Corp. (TSX-V:LCE, OTCQX:CYDVF) announced that lithium carbonate from its Nevada-based Angel Island project was converted into high-purity lithium metal and used in battery cells through a US Army-backed research program. American Resources Corp (NASDAQ:AREC)’ ReElement Technologies was selected as an industry partner in a National Science Foundation-backed critical minerals consortium eligible for up to $160 million in funding over 10 years. BioHarvest Sciences Inc (NASDAQ:BHST, FRA:8MV0) received a $1.4 million grant from the Israel Innovation Authority to support research using machine learning and computer vision to advance its plant cell culture technology. Nextech3D.AI (CSE:NTAR, OTCQX:NEXCF, FRA:1SS) launched an enterprise pilot program for KraftyLab Intelligence, an AI-powered workforce analytics platform designed to help organizations collect employee feedback and generate workplace insights. Power Metallic Mines Inc (TSX-V:PNPN, FRA:IVV1, OTCQB:PNPNF) reported high-grade near-surface copper mineralization from drilling at its Lion Zone within Quebec’s Nisk polymetallic project as it advances toward an initial NI 43-101 mineral resource estimate. 2:45pm: Market movers Dell Technologies Inc (NASDAQ:DELL) fell as investors worried that Meta’s plans to lease excess AI computing capacity could signal overbuilding among cloud providers and weigh on future server demand. Aehr Test Systems surged after the semiconductor testing equipment maker posted better-than-expected fiscal fourth-quarter results and issued a stronger revenue outlook for fiscal 2027. Century Lithium Corp. (TSX-V:LCE, OTCQX:CYDVF) said lithium carbonate from its Nevada-based Angel Island project was converted into high-purity lithium metal and used in battery cells through a US Army-backed research program. BlackRock Inc (NYSE:BLK) reported stronger-than-expected second-quarter earnings as record client inflows and higher fees boosted profits at the world’s largest asset manager. ASML Holding NV (NASDAQ:ASML, XETRA:ASME) gained after the semiconductor equipment maker beat second-quarter expectations and raised its full-year 2026 revenue forecast on stronger demand. American Resources Corp (NASDAQ:AREC)’ ReElement Technologies was selected as an industry partner in a National Science Foundation-backed critical minerals consortium eligible for up to $160 million in funding over 10 years. BioHarvest Sciences Inc (NASDAQ:BHST, FRA:8MV0) received a $1.4 million grant from the Israel Innovation Authority to support research using machine learning and computer vision to advance its plant cell culture technology. 2:10pm: BoC holds rates North of the border, the Bank of Canada kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2.25%, marking its sixth straight meeting without a policy change.

The bank said improving economic conditions and inflation gradually moving back toward target support holding rates steady, while geopolitical and trade uncertainties remain elevated.

Bank of America noted the BoC’s guidance remains cautious and data dependent, with policymakers balancing weak economic growth against inflation that remains above target. The firm expects the central bank to remain on hold through 2026, citing soft underlying activity, persistent excess supply and core inflation near 2%. While risks to rates are tilted slightly higher as the economy recovers, BofA said the bar for a hike remains high.

1:15pm: PPI offers fresh relief Bill Adams, chief economist at Fifth Third Bancorp (NASDAQ:FITB), said the latest Producer Price Index (PPI) report was notable less for the headline numbers and more for the downward revisions to inflation in recent months.

While Consumer Price Index (CPI) data isn't revised after it's released, those lower PPI revisions could feed into future revisions to the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, suggesting inflation may have been softer than previously thought.

That PCE inflation could be revised down a bit for April and May, Adams noted.

"The Fed will likely see June’s cool inflation as a justification for holding interest rates steady at the decision near the end of this month," he commented.

"Even so, it’s hard to feel too excited about last month’s drop in producer prices, which largely reflected lower energy prices—prices which rebounded in the first half of July as energy traffic through the Strait of Hormuz slowed."

12:05pm: More impressive bank earnings Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) (Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS)) reported record second quarter revenue and profit that topped Wall Street expectations on Wednesday, driven by strength across its institutional securities, wealth management and investment management businesses.

The bank posted earnings per diluted share of $3.46 on net revenue of $21.35 billion for the quarter ended June 30, exceeding analysts' expectations of $2.93 per share on revenue of $19.63 billion. A year earlier, Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) (Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS)) reported earnings per share of $2.13 on revenue of $16.79 billion.

Elsewhere, BlackRock Inc (NYSE:BLK) (BlackRock Inc (NYSE:BLK)) reported second-quarter profit that topped Wall Street estimates on Wednesday, powered by record inflows and higher fees.

The world's largest asset manager posted adjusted earnings of $13.91 per share, beating the average analyst estimate of $12.57 and up 15% from a year earlier.

Revenue rose 31% to $7.08 billion, ahead of the $6.72 billion expected by analysts.

11:00am: PPI slows US producer prices unexpectedly declined in June, adding to signs that inflation pressures are easing and strengthening expectations that the Federal Reserve could begin cutting interest rates in the coming months.

The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell 0.3% month over month, compared with expectations for no change, while annual producer inflation slowed to 5.5% from the expected 6.2%.

Core PPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.2% on the month, below forecasts of 0.3%, while the annual core rate eased to 4.7%, also coming in below the expected 5.1%.

10am: PayPal and BlackRock lead Wall St higher at open Wall Street has opened Wednesday trading on the front foot, with investors digesting more earnings.

The Nasdaq has added 0.6% in initial trades, while the S&P 500 and the Dow both climbed 0.3%.

PayPal leapt 14.5% on a reported bid from that payments company Stripe and private equity firm Advent.

BlackRock is among the standout S&P performers, jumping more than 7% after the world's largest asset manager reported a record US$15 trillion of assets under management.

The group attracted US$192 billion of net inflows during the second quarter as investors continued to pour money into exchange-traded funds.

Elsewhere, uniform supplier Cintas rose 4.7%, while software groups Adobe and Workday were also among the leading gainers in the Nasdaq 100.

8am: Nasdaq set to rally but Dow futures flat, PayPal climbs on bid report US stocks appeared set for a steady start on Wednesday as investors drew confidence from strong bank earnings and a softer-than-expected inflation report the day before, even as oil prices remained elevated following fresh US strikes on Iran.

Nasdaq futures were up 0.5% ahead of the opening bell, with S&P 500 futures up 0.1%, while those for the Dow Jones were little changed.

Wall Street finished mostly higher on Tuesday after June's consumer price data came in below expectations, easing concerns that the Federal Reserve may need to raise interest rates this month.

The Nasdaq climbed 0.9% to close at 26,107.01, the S&P added 0.4% to 7,543.59 and the Dow inched 10 points or 0.02% higher to 52,508.27.

European markets were weaker in Wednesday trading, however, as slower-than-expected Chinese economic growth weighed on sentiment. London's FTSE 100 was dragged lower by miners and other cyclical stocks after China GDP expanded 4.3% in the second quarter, its slowest pace since 2023 and below the government's 4.5%-5% target range. Germany's DAX was down 0.8%.

Oil prices were trading broadly sideways following the recent surge, with WTI crude up 0.5% at just under $80 a barrel. 

Investors were also watching PayPal, whose shares jumped over 18% in pre-market trading after Reuters reported that privately held Stripe had teamed up with Advent International to make a joint US$53 billion takeover approach.

Also, Nasdaq-listed ASML, the Dutch semiconductor equipment maker, is set to climb around 3.5% after raising its 2026 guidance for a second time.

Earnings from Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ), Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS), BlackRock, Progressive and BNY are also out today.

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U.S. stocks traded higher this morning, with the Dow Jones gaining more than 150 points on Wednesday.

Following the market opening Wednesday, the Dow traded up 0.31% to 52,670.85 while the NASDAQ rose 0.71% to 26,291.06 The S&P 500 also rose, gaining, 0.43% to 7,576.95.

Leading and Lagging Sectors

Consumer discretionary shares jumped by 1.3% on Wednesday.

In trading on Wednesday, health care stocks fell by 0.4%.

Top Headline

Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) reported upbeat earnings for the second quarter on Wednesday.

The company posted quarterly earnings of $3.46 per share which beat the analyst consensus estimate of $2.91 per share. The company reported quarterly sales of $21.348 billion which beat the analyst consensus estimate of $19.637 billion.

Equities Trading UP
           

Equities Trading DOWN

Commodities

In commodity news, oil traded up 1% to $80.16 while gold traded up 0.1% at $4,070.80.

Silver traded down 0.4% to $58.865 on Wednesday, while copper rose 0.3% to $6.4000.

Euro zone

European shares were mixed today. The eurozone’s STOXX 600 gained 0.2%, while Spain’s IBEX 35 Index fell 0.4%. London’s FTSE 100 slipped 0.1%, Germany’s DAX declined 0.5%, while France’s CAC 40 rose 0.2%.

Asia Pacific Markets

Asian markets closed mostly higher on Wednesday, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 gaining 1.49%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index rising 1.40%, China’s Shanghai Composite falling 0.29% and India’s BSE Sensex gaining 0.17%.

Economics

The New York Fed’s Empire State manufacturing index rose 10 points to a reading of 15.6 in July. U.S. producer prices fell 0.3% month-over-month in June, compared to a revised 0.6% gain in May and compared to market estimates of a flat reading. The volume of mortgage applications declined by 2.7% from the previous week during the week to July 10. Photo via Shutterstock

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Agility Robotics’ SPAC Deal Opens a Rare Door Into Humanoid AIMorgan Stanley NYSE: MS reported record second-quarter 2026 results, with executives citing strong client activity across institutional securities, wealth management and investment management, as well as continued benefits from the firm’s integrated business model.

Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Ted Pick said the firm generated more than $21 billion in quarterly revenue and earnings per share of $3.46, contributing to what he called an “exceptional first half” of 2026. Chief Financial Officer Sharon Yeshaya said second-quarter revenue was $21.3 billion, return on tangible common equity was 26.6%, and the firm’s year-to-date efficiency ratio was 65%.

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3 Top Financial Institutions Announce Over $70 Billion in Share RepurchasesAcross wealth and investment management, total client assets reached $10 trillion, a strategic milestone Pick said the firm had fulfilled. He said Morgan Stanley is seeking over time to grow standalone wealth assets from the current $8 trillion to $10 trillion.

Institutional Securities Posts Record Revenue Morgan Stanley’s institutional securities segment delivered record revenue of $11 billion and record pre-tax profit of $4.3 billion, according to Yeshaya. She said results were driven by the firm’s equities franchise and supported by investment banking.

Robinhood Wants a Bigger Role in IPOs—Here's Why It MattersInvestment banking revenue rose 58% from the prior year to $2.4 billion, reflecting stronger activity across advisory, equity underwriting and fixed income underwriting. Advisory revenue increased to $798 million on higher completed activity, with contributions across industrials, technology and healthcare. Equity underwriting revenue was $851 million, supported by what Yeshaya described as a robust IPO market and strong follow-on and convertible activity. Fixed income underwriting revenue reached a record $788 million, driven by bond issuance from both investment-grade and non-investment-grade companies.

Yeshaya said the investment banking outlook remains “constructive,” with healthy pipelines and broad-based client dialogue. While year-to-date activity has been led by the Americas, she said global activity is building.

Equities revenue reached a record $6.3 billion, with increases across products and regions. Yeshaya said Asia was strong, with activity broadening across the region. Prime brokerage revenue rose from the prior year on higher average client balances and strong activity in Asia, while cash equities benefited from active client engagement and higher market volumes in the Americas. Derivatives results were also described as very strong.

Fixed income revenue was $2.5 billion. Yeshaya said macro results were roughly flat from the prior year, as resilience in rates offset weaker foreign exchange activity in an environment where volatility traded near historic lows. Micro results increased year over year, driven by credit corporates, primary issuance and growth in securitized product lending balances.

Wealth Management Benefits From IPO-Related Flows Wealth management generated record revenue of $8.9 billion and pre-tax profit of $2.7 billion, with a pre-tax margin of 30.5%. Total client assets in the business stood at $8 trillion.

The business recorded $148 billion in net new assets, which Yeshaya said was a record. Fee-based flows were $39 billion, and fee-based assets totaled $3 trillion. Stock plan IPO flows represented just over half of overall net new assets during the quarter, more than offsetting seasonal tax-related outflows.

Yeshaya said the results demonstrated the strength of Morgan Stanley’s workplace channel and the firm’s client acquisition funnel. She said the firm has relationships with about 70% of the top 100 unicorns by market capitalization in its workplace pipeline and now has 20 million “touch points” through workplace and related client relationships.

In response to analyst questions, Yeshaya said workplace-related flows will vary by IPO timing, vesting schedules and other factors. She emphasized that the firm is focused on retaining clients who enter through the workplace channel and moving them toward advice-based relationships where appropriate.

Pick said the wealth management margin has exceeded 30% several times, but added that management is not “solving for” a particular margin number. Instead, he said the firm is focused on driving pre-tax profit growth while continuing to invest in areas that support long-term wallet share gains.

Wealth management net interest income increased to $2.3 billion, supported by higher-than-expected sweep balances and strong loan growth. Yeshaya said the firm expects a modest sequential increase in net interest income in the third quarter.

Investment Management Reaches $2 Trillion in AUM Investment management assets under management reached a record $2 trillion. The segment reported $1.6 billion in revenue, up 6% from the prior year, driven by higher asset management and related fees tied to higher average AUM.

Long-term net inflows were $7.5 billion in the quarter, led by alternatives and solutions, including Parametric, as well as fixed income strategies. Yeshaya said Parametric remains a key differentiator for Morgan Stanley, with more than $760 billion in AUM.

Capital Position Supports Buybacks and Dividend Increase Morgan Stanley ended the quarter with a standardized common equity tier 1 ratio of 14.8%. Yeshaya said total spot assets grew to $1.7 trillion, while standardized risk-weighted assets increased to $590 billion as the firm supported higher client activity.

The firm repurchased $1.5 billion of common stock during the quarter and announced a 15-cent increase in its quarterly dividend, bringing the payout to $1.15 per share. Pick said Morgan Stanley has accreted $18 billion of CET1 capital over the last 10 quarters and has a capital cushion of at least 300 basis points.

During the question-and-answer session, Pick said there is strong demand for the firm’s capital across investment banking, fixed income, equities and wealth management clients. He also said management continues to evaluate potential bolt-on acquisitions, but emphasized that the firm’s bias remains toward organic investment.

Executives Highlight AI, Geopolitics and Deal Activity Pick reiterated two themes he said have come into sharper focus in 2026: the accelerating adoption of artificial intelligence and the return of geopolitics as a major force in the global economy. He said AI-related capital spending expectations continue to rise, citing internal research that projects data center capital expenditures of about $850 billion in 2026, $1.3 trillion in 2027 and potentially $1.5 trillion in 2028.

Pick said the firm’s role in that environment is to advise, finance and allocate capital for clients, though he cautioned that the AI investment cycle remains early and subject to uncertainty from technology, supply chain, geography and nation-state involvement.

On merger and acquisition activity, Pick said the backdrop is favorable, citing what he characterized as a normalization of regulation, strong economic conditions and pent-up activity after prior periods of disruption. Yeshaya said the investment banking cycle began with debt issuance, has broadened into equity activity, and could see additional momentum from financial sponsors.

Pick said Morgan Stanley enters the second half of 2026 “from a position of strength,” with clients seeking advice on complicated global markets and interest in new products and innovation.

About Morgan Stanley NYSE: MSMorgan Stanley NYSE: MS is a global financial services firm headquartered in New York City. Founded in 1935 by Henry S. Morgan and Harold Stanley, the company provides a broad range of investment banking, securities, wealth management and investment management services to corporations, governments, institutions and individual investors. Leadership has been guided by a senior executive team and board of directors; James P. Gorman has served as the company's chief executive and chairman in recent years.

The firm's primary business activities are organized around three principal businesses: Institutional Securities, Wealth Management and Investment Management.

This instant news alert was generated by narrative science technology and financial data from MarketBeat in order to provide readers with the fastest reporting and unbiased coverage. Please send any questions or comments about this story to [email protected].

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For the quarter ended June 2026, Morgan Stanley (MS - Free Report) reported revenue of $21.35 billion, up 27.1% over the same period last year. EPS came in at $3.46, compared to $2.13 in the year-ago quarter.

The reported revenue compares to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $19.6 billion, representing a surprise of +8.9%. The company delivered an EPS surprise of +19.72%, with the consensus EPS estimate being $2.89.

While investors closely watch year-over-year changes in headline numbers -- revenue and earnings -- and how they compare to Wall Street expectations to determine their next course of action, some key metrics always provide a better insight into a company's underlying performance.

Since these metrics play a crucial role in driving the top- and bottom-line numbers, comparing them with the year-ago numbers and what analysts estimated about them helps investors better project a stock's price performance.

Here is how Morgan Stanley performed in the just reported quarter in terms of the metrics most widely monitored and projected by Wall Street analysts:

Book value per common share: $67.80 versus the three-analyst average estimate of $67.51.Return on average common equity: 20.7% compared to the 17.6% average estimate based on three analysts.Net revenues- Institutional Securities: $11.04 billion versus $9.29 billion estimated by three analysts on average. Compared to the year-ago quarter, this number represents a +44.5% change.Revenues- Wealth Management- Net interest income: $2.25 billion versus the three-analyst average estimate of $2.2 billion. The reported number represents a year-over-year change of +18%.Revenues- Institutional securities- Investment banking: $2.44 billion versus the three-analyst average estimate of $2.09 billion. The reported number represents a year-over-year change of +58.3%.Net revenues- Investment Management: $1.65 billion versus $1.62 billion estimated by three analysts on average. Compared to the year-ago quarter, this number represents a +6.1% change.Net revenues- Wealth Management: $8.86 billion versus the three-analyst average estimate of $8.59 billion. The reported number represents a year-over-year change of +14.1%.Revenues- Wealth Management- Asset management: $5.26 billion versus the two-analyst average estimate of $5.12 billion. The reported number represents a year-over-year change of +19.3%.Net interest Revenue: $2.78 billion versus the two-analyst average estimate of $2.62 billion. The reported number represents a year-over-year change of +18.5%.Revenues- Institutional securities- Other: $-152 million versus $97 million estimated by two analysts on average. Compared to the year-ago quarter, this number represents a -175.3% change.Revenues- Institutional securities- Sales and trading- Equity: $6.3 billion versus the two-analyst average estimate of $4.42 billion. The reported number represents a year-over-year change of +69.3%.Revenues- Investment Management- Performance-based income and other: $130 million compared to the $90.45 million average estimate based on two analysts. The reported number represents a change of +10.2% year over year.View all Key Company Metrics for Morgan Stanley here>>>

Shares of Morgan Stanley have returned +3.1% over the past month versus the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +1.6% change. The stock currently has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), indicating that it could perform in line with the broader market in the near term.

FTSE 100 down 17 points at 10,512 Miners fall on weaker China GDP Barratt Redrow, ICG, B&M, NextEnergy Solar publish updates  4.22pm: Oil prices soften Oil prices have continued to soften despite Iran threatening to halt all energy exports from the Middle East, following the restarting of tjhe US blockade of its ports and ships earlier troday.

"Regional energy exports are either shared by all or denied to all," Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said in a statement.

It says the Strait will remain closed until the "end of America’s evils".

But Brent crude is now down 1% today at under $84 a barrel.

Shares in Shell and BP are down 0.5% and 1.6%.

Miners Fresnillo, Anglo American, Endeavour and Antofagasta remain the biggest fallers on the index, along with telecoms companies Vodafone, Airtel Africa and BT, tech fund Scottish Mortgage and Polar Cap Tech. 

3.45pm: US tech gains fade Early gains in the Nasdaq have faded as a sharp sell-off in storage and semiconductor stocks gathered pace, with SanDisk falling 13%, while Western Digital, Seagate and Micron all post 8-9% losses.

The weakness has spread across the broader chip sector, dragging down names including Marvell, AMD, Lam Research and Applied Materials, weighing on the tech-heavy index.

This is despite ASML, the European chip-equipment giant, climbing slightly after raising sales forecasts.

3.23pm: Water mess One of the biggest UK business stories today is about unlisted Thames Water, which increased bonus payments to senior managers last year despite warning of "material uncertainty" over its future, saying funding is due to dry up by November and meeting just 55% of its regulated performance targets.

Britain's biggest water company increased bonuses from £2.8 million to £4.1 million in the year to March. Chief executive Chris Weston also received a rise in basic pay and a previously deferred bonus of £99,000, as he was blocked from receiving a new one by the government's bonus ban.

Thames warned that it needs to complete a recapitalisation, as net debt climbed to £19.7 billion from £17.7 billion a year earlier, with talks ongoing with creditors, regulators and the government on a rescue plan.

Further funding from lenders is expected to depend in part on the stance of incoming prime minister Andy Burnham, who has indicated he is considering bringing the utility into temporary public ownership.

Failure to agree a refinancing package is likely to push the group into a 'special administration regime', which could pave the way for nationalisation.

2.50pm: US stocks open higher, PayPal and Blackrock in lead Wall Street has opened on the front foot, with investors digesting more earnings.

The Nasdaq has added 0.4% in initial trades, while the S&P 500 and the Dow both are up 0.3%.

PayPal has leapt 14.5% on a reported bid from that payments company Stripe and private equity firm Advent.

BlackRock is among the standout S&P performers, jumping more than 7% after the world's largest asset manager reported a record US$15 trillion of assets under management.

The group attracted US$192 billion of net inflows during the second quarter as investors continued to pour money into exchange-traded funds.

Elsewhere, uniform supplier Cintas rose 4.7%, while software groups Adobe and Workday were also among the leading gainers in the Nasdaq 100.

2.07pm: Oil calm despite new US-Iran strikes Oil prices are remaining relatively sanguine despite new daylight strikes by the US on Iran. 

Brent crude has eased back towards US$85 a barrel after earlier touching about US$86.50, although prices remained elevated compared to two weeks ago.

US Central Command said it had completed another round of strikes on Greater Tunb Island, near the Strait of Hormuz, targeting coastal defence systems and cruise missile storage and launch sites.

The operation was "designed to further degrade military capabilities Iranian forces have used to attack commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz", it said.

The latest strikes followed an earlier wave launched during daylight hours, marking a departure from previous US operations, which had taken place overnight.

Iran has vowed a "decisive response" after local media reported that seven military personnel were killed in a US strike on a military base in Bampur in the country's south-east, with several others wounded.

1.19pm: Ed Miliband no longer favourite to be Chancellor Prediction markets are still struggling to settle on who will become Britain's next chancellor.

On Polymarket, the favourite is now Shabana Mahmood, with an implied probability of 43.8% for the current Home Secretary, ahead of former home secretary Yvette Cooper on just over 35%.

Former Labour leader Ed Miliband is a distant third on 17%, having been favourite a week ago at over 65% implied probability, while previous favourite Wes Streeting is rated an outsider at 3.5%.

The market has been volatile over the past 24 hours, with Cooper briefly overtaking Mahmood before the latter regained the lead.

The market is likely to have turned amid Westminster reports that senior allies of Burnham believe they have succeeded in blocking Miliband from the Treasury, on concerns he would become a lightning rod for criticism of the government.

Elsewhere, a Bloomberg survey of market participants showed Miliband is investors’ least favoured choice, with Mahmood not far behind him. Wes Streeting is by far the most market-friendly choice, apparently.  

12.13pm: European stocks in the red, US futures green London's blue-chips and those in other European financial centres remain under pressure at midday trading, although losses have eased slightly, with the pan-European Stoxx 600 only down 0.1%

Germany's DAX continued to lag with a 0.8% decline, with falls of 0.5-0.6% in Madrid and Milan, while in Paris the CAC 40 is down 0.2%.

Wall Street looked set for a slightly more sanguine start, led by the tech sector, with Nasdaq futures up 0.5%, S&P 500 futures rising 0.1% and those for the Dow little moved.

Summing up yesterday's Wall Street session, market analyst Kenny Polcari of SlateStone Wealth said investors were able to look through IBM's record one-day share price drop thanks to stronger-than-expected bank earnings and easing US inflation.

"The banks steal the show as they kick off the earnings season," he says, with five of the largest banks in the country together earning roughly $49 billion in profits, a 39% annual increase, inclduing JPM and Goldman Cash posting the best quarters in their history.

Today's earnings include ASML Holding, Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ), Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS), BlackRock and BNY Mellon.

11.53am: Save our stock market Ahead of Andy Burnham being confirmed as the new PM, which is expected on Friday, the Association of Investment Companies has drawn up its wish list to "save our stock market".

Top of it is a familiar demand from the City: scrap the UK's 0.5% stamp duty on share purchases.

The trade body for the investment trust sector argues the tax is making UK equities less attractive at a time when London is already losing listed companies to overseas buyers and struggling to attract new flotations.

AIC chief executive Richard Stone points to Peel Hunt analysis showing the value of takeover bids for UK-listed companies was 27 times greater than the value of IPOs in the first half of 2026.

He also wants Burnham to reverse the cut in venture capital trust tax relief from 30% to 20%, arguing it risks starving fast-growing businesses of funding before they reach the stock market.

Stone warned that London's challenges could intensify as blockbuster US listings continue to dominate global markets, citing the recent flotation of SpaceX and expected IPOs from Anthropic and OpenAI, which could further increase the weighting of US shares in global equity indices.

"The situation on the London market is now so serious that it requires bolder interventions to save our stock market," Stone says, adding that abolishing stamp duty "would give the biggest financial return to the UK economy by encouraging more investors to buy UK equities and drive economic growth."

He notes that investment trusts make up 36% of the FTSE 250 and seven constituents of the FTSE 100, saying they are subject to "onerous double taxation given that the trusts themselves pay stamp duty when they buy UK shares, then investors have to pay stamp duty on the shares of the investment trusts".

11.16am: Netflix earnings tomorrow  One of the first US tech companies stepping up to the plate is Netflix, though it's more media that tech.

Chris Beauchamp at IG says the Q2 numbers "are an opportunity for the company to stop the year-long decline in its shares that have seen them lose over 45%".

Cash flow and margins are holding up, "but in a world of growing competition and the inevitable creep of AI, Netflix has to show that it can retain the engagement of its subscribers", he says.

"That is a long and never-ending task, so while tomorrow's numbers provide a chance to tell that story, it won't be a one-and-done.

"Alongside progress on that front, investors will want to see how the firm can squeeze more cash out of advertising from its cheaper tiers - ad revenue is only 6% of sales, so there is more to be done.

"The current rout in the shares is nowhere near as bad as 2022 yet, but unless Netflix can convince shareholders that it has a workable plan, then more losses seem likely."

10.59am: PayPal is 'dirt cheap' The reported bid for PayPal from Stripe would put the payments group "out of its misery" after years of miserable share price performance, says Dan Coatsworth at AJ Bell.

"The payments sector has long been a hive of activity for takeover activity, and one must wonder why PayPal hasn’t already been picked off," he says, following its acquisition by eBay in 2002 for about US$1.5 billion then being spun back out in 2015.

The payments group was "merrily on its way to greatness when suddenly Apple Pay and Google Pay took off and grabbed some of PayPal’s market share", Coatsworth says, and has seemed to be further "left behind" in a busy market that has also seen the likes of Stripe, Block and Adyen become challengers.

"If the bid rumours are true, Stripe and Advent obviously see an opportunity to buy a company that’s down but not out," he says.

"The brand still has considerable trust among the public and business community, and it makes a decent profit. It is plugged into many of the hot payment themes including mobile payments, digital wallets and buy now, pay later. For Stripe, it provides a consumer-facing brand.

"Importantly, PayPal is dirt cheap. At its peak, the shares traded on more than 60 times earnings. They’re now on less than nine times which is the sort of rating that’s rarer than hen’s teeth in the payments sector."

10.43am: NextEnergy Solar sale process  Shares in NextEnergy Solar Fund are shining 5% brighter after the investment trust launched a formal sale process.

Jefferies analyst Matthew Hose says a sale "appears to be the best way forward", based on the valuation implied by Drax's offer for Bluefield Solar Income Fund as evidence of what solar assets are worth to trade buyers.

A sale would allow NextEnergy to repay its preference shares, Hose adds, avoiding potential dilution to ordinary shareholders at a later stage.

It might not be the simplest process, with the analyst flagging several complications in sourcing bids, though on the plus side the notice period under the management contract is only 12 months

10.27am: PayPal bid reported Across the pond, PayPal shares have surged 16% in pre-market trading after reports that Irish-US payments startup Stripe has teamed up with private equity firm Advent International to make a joint $53 billion takeover bid.

According to Reuters, Stripe and Advent have offered US$60.50 a share, representing a 28% premium to PayPal's closing share price on Tuesday.

A proposal was submitted earlier this month, the report said, following an initial approach in early April.

10.15am: ICG is top riser Alternative asset manager ICG is now top of the Footsie leaderboard, after a Q1 trading update. 

The private credit investor reported fundraising of $4.1 billion, towards management's guidance for the full year to be below last year's $17 billion.

Analyst Abid Hussain at Panmure Liberum said this was "strong" and realisations were ahead of expectations at $1.98 billion, compared to his forecast of $1.68 billion.

Fee-earning AUM was in line at $88.1 billion, with total AUM at $126 billion versus his $127 billion estimate. 

"Overall a solid, low drama quarter from management," Hussain said, with the shares trading on a nine-times two-year forward PE and the stock down 13%, "derating alongside the sector despite solid underlying performance, leaving today's numbers reinforcing what we see as a widening valuation opportunity".

10am: China thoughts Various thoughts on China are appearing in my inbox, after GDP growth slowed to 4.3% in the second quarter, its slowest pace since 2023, below the official target range of 4.5-5% for this year.

Construction was the main drag, with growth in industrial output and construction slipping to 3.0% from 4.9% in Q1, while services sector growth was steady.

Retail sales rose 1.0% in June, after falling 0.5% in May, with sales of autos, household appliances and construction materials all posted double-digit falls.

Duncan Wrigley at Pantheon Macroeconomics says: "We had expected accelerated local government bond issuance in June to drive a modest improvement in infrastructure investment, but this has yet to appear".

Manufacturing output surged 6.0% y/y in June, up from 4.4% in May, as strong export demand outweighing sluggish domestic demand, he notes.

"Policymakers will see a ‘K’-shaped economy: vibrant high-tech manufacturing and exports in stark contrast with anaemic domestic demand, dull traditional industries and falling construction activity."

He adds: "We are hopeful of fresh thinking to tackle the underlying causes of weak consumption activity, namely the soft jobs market, the prolonged property sector downturn and people’s worries about future outlays as they age.

"More targeted property market support is likely. Meaningful social security reform, however, remains a longer-term project."

Laurence Booth, market analyst at CMC Markets, says: "Markets are trying to reconcile two very different signals. China's weaker growth figures point to softer global demand, while rising oil prices are putting inflation back on investors' radar.

"Until recently, markets were becoming more comfortable with the idea that inflation was steadily moving lower. Higher energy prices now challenge that view, particularly in Europe and the UK, where central banks remain wary of second-round inflation effects.

"That leaves investors in an uncomfortable position. Slower global growth would normally support the case for lower interest rates, but if energy prices remain elevated, policymakers may have less room to ease than markets currently expect."

9.19am: FTSE down, DAX down further The FTSE 100 was down more than 80 points a short while ago, but has cut that deficit to around 35 points now. 

Miners are being hit by weaker-than-expected Chinese GDP, with concerns about economic growth generally immediately seen by investors as likely to hit demand from the world's biggest consumer of industrial metals.

China's economy grew 4.3% in the second quarter, down from 5.0% in the first three months of the year and marking its weakest pace of expansion in three years, prompting investors to sell mining shares.

Precious metals also gave back some of the previous day's gains as risk appetite improved and rate expectations eased following softer US inflation. 

A drop of 0.3% for London blue-chips compares to a 0.9% fall for Germany's DAX, which is the worst performing of the European markets this morning. 

The DAX is underperforming due to falls for semiconductor group Infineon Technologies (XETRA:IFX, OTC:INFNNY), online retailer Zalando and defence contractor Rheinmetall, while chemicals groups BASF and Bayer also declining possibly reflecting the China growth angle.

This is despite Dutch semiconductor equipment maker ASML raising its 2026 guidance for a second time.

After yesterday's mildly positive session, European shares are lower this morning as the US continued to launch strikes on Iran overnight.

Crude oil prices are a bit firmer, with Brent up 1.5% to $86 a barrel, "though oil prices are trading a range and not taken out yesterday’s one-month high after Trump rowed back threats to impose 20% tolls on ships transiting the Strait," says market analyst Neil Wilson at Saxo. "Classic TACO Tuesday I guess."

After the softer CPI reading, Wilson also picks up on Fed chair Kevin Warsh's message that it is not mission accomplished yet.

After Warsh reiterated that the Fed has "no tolerance for persistently elevated inflation", Wilson wonders if this is "the Mario Draghi ‘whatever it takes’ approach or does it mean July is still live". 

8.57am: B&M shares fall despite 'solid' quarter B&M shares are down 4% after the Q1 trading update, but analyst Jonathan Pritchard at Peel Hunt says it was a "solid" quarter.

He says that the 2.3% UK LFL decline "is in line with forecasts, following the shape of the weather, up against a huge prior-year comparative from April last year (+10.9%)".

Overall, he sees B&M entering Q2 "with less seasonal volatility and a more stable base", with France (+5.3%) and Heron Foods (+2.6%) both ahead of his forecasts.

"In conclusion, it was a solid first quarter, with performance in keeping with our forecasts, and the wider market, and we expect consensus is likely to be largely unchanged following today’s update."

8.33am: Barratt Redrow - what analysts are saying Some analysis of the Barratt Redrow numbers.

Clyde Lewis at Peel Hunt notes that completions were slightly ahead of the guided range, with adjusted PBT expected to be in line with the current City consensus forecast, and the order book is "only modestly lower" than the prior year.

With the planning backdrop continuing to pose difficulties, minimal growth in house prices and build cost inflation likely to be 3-4%, the business is "likely to see further gross margin pressure in FY27E", he reckons.

With admin costs and interest charges guided to increase by circa £40-45 million, this implied downgrades to its current PBT forecast of £568 million.

But Charlie Campbell at Stifel sees the outlook is "broadly where consensus is already" and growth "not predicated on better sales rates". Build cost inflation of around 3-4% compares to consensus at around 4%.

The shares trade at 0.6x book value, an 8% discount to the sector, "and only a little up on its lowest valuation since May 2012", Campbell says. 

"We expect the shares to perform well in the next twelve months if the UK's inflation shock is short and sharp rather than prolonged."

8.15am: FTSE 100 opens lower as miners weigh The FTSE 100 has dropped 65 points to 10,464 in opening trades, led by the mining sector. 

Precious metals miners Fresnillo and Endeavour, along with copper-focused Antofagasta, make up the bottom three, with Anglo American and Rio Tinto a little behind. Gold, silver and copper are down 0.6-0.3% this morning. 

Also among the bigger fallers are telecoms pair BT and Vodafone, along with defence and aerospace names Melrose, Babcock and BAE Systems.

Topping the leaderboard is Barratt Redrow, up just over 4% as its results impressed. Sector peer Persimmon is carried up 1.5% from read-across. 

Only 15 of the index are in positive territory so far this morning. 

7.57am: B&M mixed B&M European Value Retail has reported first-quarter sales growth of 2% as strong trading in France and steady growth at Heron Foods helped lift the top-line revenue despite continuing soft trading in its core UK business.

The discount retailer said revenue rose to £1.43 billion in the 13 weeks to 27 June from a year earlier.

Revenue at B&M UK increased 0.3% to £1.14 billion, although like-for-like sales, which measure performance at stores open for at least 14 months, fell 2.3%. The decline was said to reflect a comparison with a stronger start to the garden season last year.

7.46am: Barratt bets on buybacks over dividends Barratt Redrow has pledged to return £400 million to shareholders after deciding buybacks represent better value than paying larger cash dividends, as the housebuilder reported annual profits in line with expectations.

The FTSE 100 group completed 17,667 home sales in the year to 28 June, at the top end of its guidance range and up from 16,826 a year earlier.

There was net cash of £772 million at year-end, well ahead of the £550-650 million range it guided to in April, helped by lower land spending and delayed building safety remediation payments.

Looking ahead, completions are seen increasing to 17,700-18,200 in the new financial year, with "minimal" house price inflation but 3-4% build cost inflation. 

7.28am: Rates in focus The boost to the market from the US CPI inflation is not likely to last long, reckons market analyst Ipek Ozkardeskaya at Swissquote.

A softening in the annual rate of CPI and a month-on-month fell tamed hawkish Federal Reserve expectations, leading to a sharp pullback at the short end of the US Treasury yield curve.

The US two-year yield, which best captures Fed rate expectations, fell 10 basis points yesterday, with Fed funds futures now pricing out a July hike and sending the probability of a September rate hike down to 60% from 77% before the CPI release.

"But because the drop in US inflation was largely driven by the sharp pullback in energy prices, the inflation relief will probably not last long," Ozkardeskaya says. 

"Middle East tensions are escalating. The US President walked back his latest – and perhaps one of the most absurd proposals yet – to charge a 20% fee on all ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz (we did the math yesterday: it would amount to a $30–34 million fee per oil tanker and would be against international law).

"Yet strikes in the region continue, energy infrastructure is being damaged, and oil and gas prices are rising. US crude is consolidating its rebound near $80 per barrel, Brent is trading near $85pb. NYMEX natural gas remains stable below $3, yet European TTF futures are up more than 30% since the June dip."

Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid notes that the 10-year US Treasury yield traded low as 4.521% post-CPI but it then climbed somewhat, "in part as Fed chair Kevin Warsh continued to strike a tough note on inflation as he delivered his first testimony as Chair before the House Financial Services Committee".

Reid says Warsh refrained from any direct policy guidance, but stressed that the softer CPI print did not mean "mission accomplished".

The central bank chief also said that "members of our Committee have no tolerance for persistently elevated inflation". 

In all, says Reid, "the new Chair looked to cement inflation-fighting credibility. But he was fortunate to be making these tough remarks in a day of soft CPI, with the inflation data easing the pressure for any immediate policy tightening".

FTSE 100 Live pre-open London and European shares are predicted to struggle on Wednesday morning, in contrast to gains for most Asian and US stocks after a shift in rate expectations following US inflation data yesterday. 

The FTSE 100 is expected to open around 40 points lower, according to the futures market, more than erasing the 31 points added yesterday when the index closed at 10,529.39.

Wall Street enjoyed a positive session overnight, following the biggest monthly fall in US CPI inflation for six years, which boosted hopes that the Federal Reserve may not need to raise interest rates this month.

The Nasdaq led the gains, climbing 0.9% as semiconductor stocks rallied, while the S&P 500 added 0.4% and the Dow Jones edged up just 10 points, held back by a big fall for IBM.

Asian markets are mostly higher, led by the tech sector, with Korea's Kospi jumping 7.3% and Japan's Nikkei up 1.45%, with US futures also positive, again led by the tech-powered Nasdaq, up 0.8% currently. 

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Pre-market futures are gathering steam following this morning’s slew of economic data, which was quite encouraging overall. Wholesale inflation and another round of Q2 earnings results, along with a New York manufacturing index, has seen the blue-chip Dow up from +99 points to +140 at this hour. The S&P 500 is +10 at this hour, and the Nasdaq is +150. The small-cap Russell 2000 is +4 points.

PPI for June Better than Expected: -0.3%, +5.5%Following Tuesday’s retail inflation numbers from the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which showed pressures on the economy abating, this morning’s Producer Price Index (PPI) for June — the wholesale inflation print — brings us more of the same: -0.3% on month-over-month headline, lower than both the 0.0% expected, and the half-point downward revision for May to +0.6%. This is the steepest drop since August of last year, which is the last negative print on month-over-month PPI.

We know that the easing of oil prices last month has pushed both PPI and CPI inflation numbers lower for June. But stripping out volatile food and energy costs, we only swing up to +0.2% for the month, 10 basis points (bps) below expectations, with the prior month’s revisions ratcheting down considerably, as well.

Year over year PPI pulls back to +5.5% — 100 bps lower than last month’s initial print, which has been revised down another half a point to +6.0%. Core year over year reduces to +4.7%, further demonstrating less of an inflationary strain on the economy than we saw a month ago. Ex-food, energy and trade was still the highest in more than three years at +5.1%, but that’s still lower than analysts had been projecting.

The opening of the Strait of Hormuz last month (which is presently in jeopardy considering news reports out of the Middle East this morning, making these PPI numbers potentially a mere fleeting relief) sent Energy prices down -6.4% on wholesale inflation, with Diesel hurtling -18% downward. Overall, Goods dropped -1.4% and Food was -0.6%. Pre-market futures, as we saw above, are happy with these numbers, regardless.

Q2 Earnings Today: Morgan Stanley, BlackRock Ahead of the BellInvestment giant Morgan Stanley (MS - Free Report) reported Q2 earnings ahead of today’s opening bell, with big beats on both top and bottom lines. Earnings of $3.46 per share zoomed past the $2.89 in the Zacks consensus for a +19.7% positive surprise. Revenues also impressed: $21.38 billion were +8.9% higher than expected. Shares are selling the news a bit, however, as the stock had already risen +28% year to date prior to the print.

Wall Street competitor BlackRock (BLK - Free Report) also outperformed estimates ahead of the open this morning, with earnings of $13.91 per share well ahead of the $12.67 projected and $12.05 per share reported a year ago. Revenues of $7.08 billion beat consensus by +3.75%, and towers above the $5.42 billion in revenues the company posted for Q2 of last year. Shares are up +5.6% on the news, pushing the stock into positive territory year to date.

Outside the world of Big Finance, Johnson & Johnson (JNJ - Free Report) outpaced earnings estimates by 6 cents to $2.90 per share this morning, for a +2.1% positive surprise. Revenues of $25.31 billion surpassed the Zacks consensus by +0.53%. Household goods and pharmaceuticals typically don’t bring the gaudy margins the AI firms or big investment houses do, though the stock is still up more than +20% year to date, despite this morning’s slight selloff on the Q2 news.

After today’s close, we’ll see earnings from United Airlines (UAL - Free Report) . Earnings are expected to come in -51% from a year ago — higher fuel costs took a bite out of the airlines last quarter — on +16% gains in revenues. The company carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) rating into this afternoon’s print, and has beaten earnings estimates in the past four quarters by an average of +5%.

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The artificial intelligence boom has never been cheap, but the price of staying at the cutting edge is climbing even faster than many investors expected. Over the past two years, Big Tech has committed hundreds of billions of dollars to build the computing infrastructure needed to train increasingly powerful AI models. Those investments have fueled one of the strongest bull markets in technology history, with companies like Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA | NVDA Price Prediction), Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), and Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META) leading the charge.

Now, new research from Morgan Stanley suggests those AI ambitions will cost even more than previously estimated. Rather than slowing the AI race, though, the higher price tag may reinforce one of the market’s biggest investment themes: only a handful of companies possess the financial strength to compete at the frontier of artificial intelligence.

AI Infrastructure Is Becoming Even More Capital Intensive Morgan Stanley updated its bottom-up estimates for next-generation AI clusters and found costs have risen across the board. According to the investment bank, Nvidia’s GB200 systems now cost about $35 billion per gigawatt (GW) of computing capacity, up 16% from prior estimates. GB300 clusters rise to $39 billion per GW, while Vera Rubin-based systems jump nearly 20% to $49 billion per GW.

Those estimates closely match Nvidia’s own guidance of $50 billion to $60 billion per GW for Rubin-era AI factories.

Those eye-popping figures include far more than graphics processors. They encompass networking equipment, storage, liquid cooling systems, electrical infrastructure, and power delivery needed to operate facilities consuming hundreds of megawatts — or even entire gigawatts — of electricity.

To put that into perspective, 1 GW can power roughly 700,000 to 1 million U.S. homes. AI campuses are increasingly reaching that scale.

OpenAI‘s Stargate initiative, backed by SoftBank and Oracle (NYSE:ORCL), plans to invest $500 billion through 2029 to build up to 10 GW of AI infrastructure. Meta is developing its Hyperion campus with plans to expand from 2 GW to 5 GW, while Microsoft and Google continue building multi-gigawatt data center campuses across the United States.

Building the future of AI is becoming an exclusive club where only the deepest pockets survive. High costs aren't a bug—they're the ultimate competitive moat for Big Tech. © 24/7 Wall St. Bigger Costs Could Create Bigger Competitive Advantages Higher infrastructure costs don’t necessarily weaken Nvidia’s outlook. Ironically, they may strengthen it.

Only companies generating enormous cash flows can comfortably finance these projects. Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOG), and Meta collectively produce hundreds of billions of dollars in annual operating cash flow. They also retain investment-grade credit ratings that allow them to borrow at favorable rates.

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Smaller AI companies don’t enjoy those advantages. Instead of building billion-dollar campuses themselves, many will lease computing capacity from cloud providers or specialists like CoreWeave (NASDAQ:CRWV). That shifts even more demand toward the largest cloud operators while reinforcing Nvidia’s dominant ecosystem of GPUs, networking hardware, and software.

Morgan Stanley also noted that power availability — not financing — is increasingly becoming the biggest bottleneck. Utilities face multi-year delays adding new generation and transmission capacity, stretching construction timelines and increasing project costs.

The AI Investment Thesis Remains Intact Granted, rising costs raise the bar for earning attractive returns. Companies must generate enough AI revenue to justify infrastructure investments that now approach $50 billion per GW.

That said, demand continues moving in the opposite direction. McKinsey estimates cumulative AI infrastructure spending could reach trillions of dollars by 2030, while research from Epoch AI projects multiple frontier AI clusters exceeding 1 GW this year alone.

For Nvidia, more expensive AI factories often translate into higher revenue per deployment because its chips, networking products, and software remain at the center of those installations. Suppliers of high-bandwidth memory, power management systems, and liquid cooling equipment also stand to benefit as clusters become larger and more complex.

Key Takeaway In short, Morgan Stanley’s revised cost estimates don’t signal the AI boom is running out of steam. They highlight that building frontier AI has become an increasingly exclusive club.

That’s ultimately good news for companies with fortress balance sheets and established AI ecosystems. Nvidia, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta remain among the best-positioned businesses to absorb higher costs while spreading those investments across massive cloud platforms and growing AI services.

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FTSE 100 flat at 10,530 Miners fall on weaker China GDP Barratt Redrow, ICG, B&M, NextEnergy Solar publish updates  2.07pm: Oil calm despite new US-Iran strikes Oil prices are remaining relatively sanguine despite new daylight strikes by the US on Iran. 

Brent crude has eased back towards US$85 a barrel after earlier touching about US$86.50, although prices remained elevated compared to two weeks ago.

US Central Command said it had completed another round of strikes on Greater Tunb Island, near the Strait of Hormuz, targeting coastal defence systems and cruise missile storage and launch sites.

The operation was "designed to further degrade military capabilities Iranian forces have used to attack commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz", it said.

The latest strikes followed an earlier wave launched during daylight hours, marking a departure from previous US operations, which had taken place overnight.

Iran has vowed a "decisive response" after local media reported that seven military personnel were killed in a US strike on a military base in Bampur in the country's south-east, with several others wounded.

1.19pm: Ed Miliband no longer favourite to be Chancellor Prediction markets are still struggling to settle on who will become Britain's next chancellor.

On Polymarket, the favourite is now Shabana Mahmood, with an implied probability of 43.8% for the current Home Secretary, ahead of former home secretary Yvette Cooper on just over 35%.

Former Labour leader Ed Miliband is a distant third on 17%, having been favourite a week ago at over 65% implied probability, while previous favourite Wes Streeting is rated an outsider at 3.5%.

The market has been volatile over the past 24 hours, with Cooper briefly overtaking Mahmood before the latter regained the lead.

The market is likely to have turned amid Westminster reports that senior allies of Burnham believe they have succeeded in blocking Miliband from the Treasury, on concerns he would become a lightning rod for criticism of the government.

Elsewhere, a Bloomberg survey of market participants showed Miliband is investors’ least favoured choice, with Mahmood not far behind him. Wes Streeting is by far the most market-friendly choice, apparently.  

12.13pm: European stocks in the red, US futures green London's blue-chips and those in other European financial centres remain under pressure at midday trading, although losses have eased slightly, with the pan-European Stoxx 600 only down 0.1%

Germany's DAX continued to lag with a 0.8% decline, with falls of 0.5-0.6% in Madrid and Milan, while in Paris the CAC 40 is down 0.2%.

Wall Street looked set for a slightly more sanguine start, led by the tech sector, with Nasdaq futures up 0.5%, S&P 500 futures rising 0.1% and those for the Dow little moved.

Summing up yesterday's Wall Street session, market analyst Kenny Polcari of SlateStone Wealth said investors were able to look through IBM's record one-day share price drop thanks to stronger-than-expected bank earnings and easing US inflation.

"The banks steal the show as they kick off the earnings season," he says, with five of the largest banks in the country together earning roughly $49 billion in profits, a 39% annual increase, inclduing JPM and Goldman Cash posting the best quarters in their history.

Today's earnings include ASML Holding, Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ), Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS), BlackRock and BNY Mellon.

11.53am: Save our stock market Ahead of Andy Burnham being confirmed as the new PM, which is expected on Friday, the Association of Investment Companies has drawn up its wish list to "save our stock market".

Top of it is a familiar demand from the City: scrap the UK's 0.5% stamp duty on share purchases.

The trade body for the investment trust sector argues the tax is making UK equities less attractive at a time when London is already losing listed companies to overseas buyers and struggling to attract new flotations.

AIC chief executive Richard Stone points to Peel Hunt analysis showing the value of takeover bids for UK-listed companies was 27 times greater than the value of IPOs in the first half of 2026.

He also wants Burnham to reverse the cut in venture capital trust tax relief from 30% to 20%, arguing it risks starving fast-growing businesses of funding before they reach the stock market.

Stone warned that London's challenges could intensify as blockbuster US listings continue to dominate global markets, citing the recent flotation of SpaceX and expected IPOs from Anthropic and OpenAI, which could further increase the weighting of US shares in global equity indices.

"The situation on the London market is now so serious that it requires bolder interventions to save our stock market," Stone says, adding that abolishing stamp duty "would give the biggest financial return to the UK economy by encouraging more investors to buy UK equities and drive economic growth."

He notes that investment trusts make up 36% of the FTSE 250 and seven constituents of the FTSE 100, saying they are subject to "onerous double taxation given that the trusts themselves pay stamp duty when they buy UK shares, then investors have to pay stamp duty on the shares of the investment trusts".

11.16am: Netflix earnings tomorrow  One of the first US tech companies stepping up to the plate is Netflix, though it's more media that tech.

Chris Beauchamp at IG says the Q2 numbers "are an opportunity for the company to stop the year-long decline in its shares that have seen them lose over 45%".

Cash flow and margins are holding up, "but in a world of growing competition and the inevitable creep of AI, Netflix has to show that it can retain the engagement of its subscribers", he says.

"That is a long and never-ending task, so while tomorrow's numbers provide a chance to tell that story, it won't be a one-and-done.

"Alongside progress on that front, investors will want to see how the firm can squeeze more cash out of advertising from its cheaper tiers - ad revenue is only 6% of sales, so there is more to be done.

"The current rout in the shares is nowhere near as bad as 2022 yet, but unless Netflix can convince shareholders that it has a workable plan, then more losses seem likely."

10.59am: PayPal is 'dirt cheap' The reported bid for PayPal from Stripe would put the payments group "out of its misery" after years of miserable share price performance, says Dan Coatsworth at AJ Bell.

"The payments sector has long been a hive of activity for takeover activity, and one must wonder why PayPal hasn’t already been picked off," he says, following its acquisition by eBay in 2002 for about US$1.5 billion then being spun back out in 2015.

The payments group was "merrily on its way to greatness when suddenly Apple Pay and Google Pay took off and grabbed some of PayPal’s market share", Coatsworth says, and has seemed to be further "left behind" in a busy market that has also seen the likes of Stripe, Block and Adyen become challengers.

"If the bid rumours are true, Stripe and Advent obviously see an opportunity to buy a company that’s down but not out," he says.

"The brand still has considerable trust among the public and business community, and it makes a decent profit. It is plugged into many of the hot payment themes including mobile payments, digital wallets and buy now, pay later. For Stripe, it provides a consumer-facing brand.

"Importantly, PayPal is dirt cheap. At its peak, the shares traded on more than 60 times earnings. They’re now on less than nine times which is the sort of rating that’s rarer than hen’s teeth in the payments sector."

10.43am: NextEnergy Solar sale process  Shares in NextEnergy Solar Fund are shining 5% brighter after the investment trust launched a formal sale process.

Jefferies analyst Matthew Hose says a sale "appears to be the best way forward", based on the valuation implied by Drax's offer for Bluefield Solar Income Fund as evidence of what solar assets are worth to trade buyers.

A sale would allow NextEnergy to repay its preference shares, Hose adds, avoiding potential dilution to ordinary shareholders at a later stage.

It might not be the simplest process, with the analyst flagging several complications in sourcing bids, though on the plus side the notice period under the management contract is only 12 months

10.27am: PayPal bid reported Across the pond, PayPal shares have surged 16% in pre-market trading after reports that Irish-US payments startup Stripe has teamed up with private equity firm Advent International to make a joint $53 billion takeover bid.

According to Reuters, Stripe and Advent have offered US$60.50 a share, representing a 28% premium to PayPal's closing share price on Tuesday.

A proposal was submitted earlier this month, the report said, following an initial approach in early April.

10.15am: ICG is top riser Alternative asset manager ICG is now top of the Footsie leaderboard, after a Q1 trading update. 

The private credit investor reported fundraising of $4.1 billion, towards management's guidance for the full year to be below last year's $17 billion.

Analyst Abid Hussain at Panmure Liberum said this was "strong" and realisations were ahead of expectations at $1.98 billion, compared to his forecast of $1.68 billion.

Fee-earning AUM was in line at $88.1 billion, with total AUM at $126 billion versus his $127 billion estimate. 

"Overall a solid, low drama quarter from management," Hussain said, with the shares trading on a nine-times two-year forward PE and the stock down 13%, "derating alongside the sector despite solid underlying performance, leaving today's numbers reinforcing what we see as a widening valuation opportunity".

10am: China thoughts Various thoughts on China are appearing in my inbox, after GDP growth slowed to 4.3% in the second quarter, its slowest pace since 2023, below the official target range of 4.5-5% for this year.

Construction was the main drag, with growth in industrial output and construction slipping to 3.0% from 4.9% in Q1, while services sector growth was steady.

Retail sales rose 1.0% in June, after falling 0.5% in May, with sales of autos, household appliances and construction materials all posted double-digit falls.

Duncan Wrigley at Pantheon Macroeconomics says: "We had expected accelerated local government bond issuance in June to drive a modest improvement in infrastructure investment, but this has yet to appear".

Manufacturing output surged 6.0% y/y in June, up from 4.4% in May, as strong export demand outweighing sluggish domestic demand, he notes.

"Policymakers will see a ‘K’-shaped economy: vibrant high-tech manufacturing and exports in stark contrast with anaemic domestic demand, dull traditional industries and falling construction activity."

He adds: "We are hopeful of fresh thinking to tackle the underlying causes of weak consumption activity, namely the soft jobs market, the prolonged property sector downturn and people’s worries about future outlays as they age.

"More targeted property market support is likely. Meaningful social security reform, however, remains a longer-term project."

Laurence Booth, market analyst at CMC Markets, says: "Markets are trying to reconcile two very different signals. China's weaker growth figures point to softer global demand, while rising oil prices are putting inflation back on investors' radar.

"Until recently, markets were becoming more comfortable with the idea that inflation was steadily moving lower. Higher energy prices now challenge that view, particularly in Europe and the UK, where central banks remain wary of second-round inflation effects.

"That leaves investors in an uncomfortable position. Slower global growth would normally support the case for lower interest rates, but if energy prices remain elevated, policymakers may have less room to ease than markets currently expect."

9.19am: FTSE down, DAX down further The FTSE 100 was down more than 80 points a short while ago, but has cut that deficit to around 35 points now. 

Miners are being hit by weaker-than-expected Chinese GDP, with concerns about economic growth generally immediately seen by investors as likely to hit demand from the world's biggest consumer of industrial metals.

China's economy grew 4.3% in the second quarter, down from 5.0% in the first three months of the year and marking its weakest pace of expansion in three years, prompting investors to sell mining shares.

Precious metals also gave back some of the previous day's gains as risk appetite improved and rate expectations eased following softer US inflation. 

A drop of 0.3% for London blue-chips compares to a 0.9% fall for Germany's DAX, which is the worst performing of the European markets this morning. 

The DAX is underperforming due to falls for semiconductor group Infineon Technologies (XETRA:IFX, OTC:INFNNY), online retailer Zalando and defence contractor Rheinmetall, while chemicals groups BASF and Bayer also declining possibly reflecting the China growth angle.

This is despite Dutch semiconductor equipment maker ASML raising its 2026 guidance for a second time.

After yesterday's mildly positive session, European shares are lower this morning as the US continued to launch strikes on Iran overnight.

Crude oil prices are a bit firmer, with Brent up 1.5% to $86 a barrel, "though oil prices are trading a range and not taken out yesterday’s one-month high after Trump rowed back threats to impose 20% tolls on ships transiting the Strait," says market analyst Neil Wilson at Saxo. "Classic TACO Tuesday I guess."

After the softer CPI reading, Wilson also picks up on Fed chair Kevin Warsh's message that it is not mission accomplished yet.

After Warsh reiterated that the Fed has "no tolerance for persistently elevated inflation", Wilson wonders if this is "the Mario Draghi ‘whatever it takes’ approach or does it mean July is still live". 

8.57am: B&M shares fall despite 'solid' quarter B&M shares are down 4% after the Q1 trading update, but analyst Jonathan Pritchard at Peel Hunt says it was a "solid" quarter.

He says that the 2.3% UK LFL decline "is in line with forecasts, following the shape of the weather, up against a huge prior-year comparative from April last year (+10.9%)".

Overall, he sees B&M entering Q2 "with less seasonal volatility and a more stable base", with France (+5.3%) and Heron Foods (+2.6%) both ahead of his forecasts.

"In conclusion, it was a solid first quarter, with performance in keeping with our forecasts, and the wider market, and we expect consensus is likely to be largely unchanged following today’s update."

8.33am: Barratt Redrow - what analysts are saying Some analysis of the Barratt Redrow numbers.

Clyde Lewis at Peel Hunt notes that completions were slightly ahead of the guided range, with adjusted PBT expected to be in line with the current City consensus forecast, and the order book is "only modestly lower" than the prior year.

With the planning backdrop continuing to pose difficulties, minimal growth in house prices and build cost inflation likely to be 3-4%, the business is "likely to see further gross margin pressure in FY27E", he reckons.

With admin costs and interest charges guided to increase by circa £40-45 million, this implied downgrades to its current PBT forecast of £568 million.

But Charlie Campbell at Stifel sees the outlook is "broadly where consensus is already" and growth "not predicated on better sales rates". Build cost inflation of around 3-4% compares to consensus at around 4%.

The shares trade at 0.6x book value, an 8% discount to the sector, "and only a little up on its lowest valuation since May 2012", Campbell says. 

"We expect the shares to perform well in the next twelve months if the UK's inflation shock is short and sharp rather than prolonged."

8.15am: FTSE 100 opens lower as miners weigh The FTSE 100 has dropped 65 points to 10,464 in opening trades, led by the mining sector. 

Precious metals miners Fresnillo and Endeavour, along with copper-focused Antofagasta, make up the bottom three, with Anglo American and Rio Tinto a little behind. Gold, silver and copper are down 0.6-0.3% this morning. 

Also among the bigger fallers are telecoms pair BT and Vodafone, along with defence and aerospace names Melrose, Babcock and BAE Systems.

Topping the leaderboard is Barratt Redrow, up just over 4% as its results impressed. Sector peer Persimmon is carried up 1.5% from read-across. 

Only 15 of the index are in positive territory so far this morning. 

7.57am: B&M mixed B&M European Value Retail has reported first-quarter sales growth of 2% as strong trading in France and steady growth at Heron Foods helped lift the top-line revenue despite continuing soft trading in its core UK business.

The discount retailer said revenue rose to £1.43 billion in the 13 weeks to 27 June from a year earlier.

Revenue at B&M UK increased 0.3% to £1.14 billion, although like-for-like sales, which measure performance at stores open for at least 14 months, fell 2.3%. The decline was said to reflect a comparison with a stronger start to the garden season last year.

7.46am: Barratt bets on buybacks over dividends Barratt Redrow has pledged to return £400 million to shareholders after deciding buybacks represent better value than paying larger cash dividends, as the housebuilder reported annual profits in line with expectations.

The FTSE 100 group completed 17,667 home sales in the year to 28 June, at the top end of its guidance range and up from 16,826 a year earlier.

There was net cash of £772 million at year-end, well ahead of the £550-650 million range it guided to in April, helped by lower land spending and delayed building safety remediation payments.

Looking ahead, completions are seen increasing to 17,700-18,200 in the new financial year, with "minimal" house price inflation but 3-4% build cost inflation. 

7.28am: Rates in focus The boost to the market from the US CPI inflation is not likely to last long, reckons market analyst Ipek Ozkardeskaya at Swissquote.

A softening in the annual rate of CPI and a month-on-month fell tamed hawkish Federal Reserve expectations, leading to a sharp pullback at the short end of the US Treasury yield curve.

The US two-year yield, which best captures Fed rate expectations, fell 10 basis points yesterday, with Fed funds futures now pricing out a July hike and sending the probability of a September rate hike down to 60% from 77% before the CPI release.

"But because the drop in US inflation was largely driven by the sharp pullback in energy prices, the inflation relief will probably not last long," Ozkardeskaya says. 

"Middle East tensions are escalating. The US President walked back his latest – and perhaps one of the most absurd proposals yet – to charge a 20% fee on all ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz (we did the math yesterday: it would amount to a $30–34 million fee per oil tanker and would be against international law).

"Yet strikes in the region continue, energy infrastructure is being damaged, and oil and gas prices are rising. US crude is consolidating its rebound near $80 per barrel, Brent is trading near $85pb. NYMEX natural gas remains stable below $3, yet European TTF futures are up more than 30% since the June dip."

Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid notes that the 10-year US Treasury yield traded low as 4.521% post-CPI but it then climbed somewhat, "in part as Fed chair Kevin Warsh continued to strike a tough note on inflation as he delivered his first testimony as Chair before the House Financial Services Committee".

Reid says Warsh refrained from any direct policy guidance, but stressed that the softer CPI print did not mean "mission accomplished".

The central bank chief also said that "members of our Committee have no tolerance for persistently elevated inflation". 

In all, says Reid, "the new Chair looked to cement inflation-fighting credibility. But he was fortunate to be making these tough remarks in a day of soft CPI, with the inflation data easing the pressure for any immediate policy tightening".

FTSE 100 Live pre-open London and European shares are predicted to struggle on Wednesday morning, in contrast to gains for most Asian and US stocks after a shift in rate expectations following US inflation data yesterday. 

The FTSE 100 is expected to open around 40 points lower, according to the futures market, more than erasing the 31 points added yesterday when the index closed at 10,529.39.

Wall Street enjoyed a positive session overnight, following the biggest monthly fall in US CPI inflation for six years, which boosted hopes that the Federal Reserve may not need to raise interest rates this month.

The Nasdaq led the gains, climbing 0.9% as semiconductor stocks rallied, while the S&P 500 added 0.4% and the Dow Jones edged up just 10 points, held back by a big fall for IBM.

Asian markets are mostly higher, led by the tech sector, with Korea's Kospi jumping 7.3% and Japan's Nikkei up 1.45%, with US futures also positive, again led by the tech-powered Nasdaq, up 0.8% currently. 

Stock futures are pointing to a higher open as investors digest a flurry of earnings reports from major companies; oil prices are higher as the U.S. and Iran continue to trade strikes; PayPal shares are surging following a report that Stripe and Advent International have made a joint offer to buy the payments giant; ASML shares are gaining after the maker of chip manufacturing equipment reported strong results and lifted its sales forecast; and Morgan Stanley, Johnson & Johnson, Conagra and United are among the other big names reporting earnings today. Here's what you need to know today.

Morgan Stanley (MS - Free Report) came out with quarterly earnings of $3.46 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.89 per share. This compares to earnings of $2.13 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items.

This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of +19.72%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this investment bank would post earnings of $3.06 per share when it actually produced earnings of $3.43, delivering a surprise of +12.09%.

Over the last four quarters, the company has surpassed consensus EPS estimates four times.

Morgan Stanley, which belongs to the Zacks Financial - Investment Bank industry, posted revenues of $21.35 billion for the quarter ended June 2026, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 8.90%. This compares to year-ago revenues of $16.79 billion. The company has topped consensus revenue estimates four times over the last four quarters.

The sustainability of the stock's immediate price movement based on the recently-released numbers and future earnings expectations will mostly depend on management's commentary on the earnings call.

Morgan Stanley shares have added about 28.2% since the beginning of the year versus the S&P 500's gain of 10.2%.

What's Next for Morgan Stanley?While Morgan Stanley has outperformed the market so far this year, the question that comes to investors' minds is: what's next for the stock?

There are no easy answers to this key question, but one reliable measure that can help investors address this is the company's earnings outlook. Not only does this include current consensus earnings expectations for the coming quarter(s), but also how these expectations have changed lately.

Empirical research shows a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions. Investors can track such revisions by themselves or rely on a tried-and-tested rating tool like the Zacks Rank, which has an impressive track record of harnessing the power of earnings estimate revisions.

Ahead of this earnings release, the estimate revisions trend for Morgan Stanley was mixed. While the magnitude and direction of estimate revisions could change following the company's just-released earnings report, the current status translates into a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for the stock. So, the shares are expected to perform in line with the market in the near future. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

It will be interesting to see how estimates for the coming quarters and the current fiscal year change in the days ahead. The current consensus EPS estimate is $2.89 on $18.99 billion in revenues for the coming quarter and $11.98 on $77.67 billion in revenues for the current fiscal year.

Investors should be mindful of the fact that the outlook for the industry can have a material impact on the performance of the stock as well. In terms of the Zacks Industry Rank, Financial - Investment Bank is currently in the top 22% of the 250 plus Zacks industries. Our research shows that the top 50% of the Zacks-ranked industries outperform the bottom 50% by a factor of more than 2 to 1.

Another stock from the same industry, BGC Group (BGC - Free Report) , has yet to report results for the quarter ended June 2026. The results are expected to be released on July 30.

This brokerage company is expected to post quarterly earnings of $0.34 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of +9.7%. The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has remained unchanged over the last 30 days.

BGC Group's revenues are expected to be $814.9 million, up 3.9% from the year-ago quarter.

Morgan Stanley is set to report second-quarter earnings before the opening bell Wednesday.  

Here's what Wall Street expects:

Earnings per share: $2.94, according to LSEGRevenue: $19.64 billion, according to LSEGInvestment banking: $2.17 billion, according to StreetAccountTrading: Equities of $4.41 billion, fixed income of $2.49 billion, according to StreetAccount Morgan Stanley is expected to benefit from higher trading and investment banking revenue in the quarter, as rivals JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs have shown in their reports.

Heightened activity fueled by the global artificial intelligence boom propelled JPMorgan and Goldman to beat estimates for equities trading by a combined $4.4 billion, while investment banking at the two firms topped estimates by a combined $1 billion.

Analysts will want to know what CEO Ted Pick has to say on the outlook for the rest of the year as geopolitical tensions remain high.

This story is developing. Please check back for updates.

© Chris Hondros / Getty Images News via Getty Images

JPMorgan kicked off Q2 2026 earnings season this morning with a blowout earnings report that reset expectations for the entire financial sector. The bank posted $7.70 in diluted EPS versus $5.80 expected and $57.35 billion in revenue, powered by a $4.6 billion Visa share exchange gain and a 27% surge in Commercial & Investment Bank revenue. Jamie Dimon flagged IB fees up 30% to the highest level since 2021 and Markets revenue up 35%.

That combination of trading strength, capital markets reopening, and resilient consumer credit is the read-through driving peer stocks today. Here are the five names most exposed to JPMorgan’s tone-setting report, ranked by the size and directness of the impact.

1. Goldman Sachs (GS) Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS | GS Price Prediction) is the purest read-through, and it delivered its own bombshell alongside JPM. Goldman posted EPS of $20.98 versus $14.54 expected, a 44.27% beat and its fifth straight beat. Global Banking & Markets revenue jumped 53% to $15.52 billion, with Equities up 72% and Equity Underwriting up 130%. CEO David Solomon said “Momentum has accelerated throughout our businesses… we expect this flywheel of activity to continue.”

Shares were down 0.88% intraday to $1,045.91 despite the beat, suggesting expectations were already elevated after a 20.12% YTD run. The forward catalyst is backlog conversion: management noted the IB backlog grew again versus Q1.

2. Bank of America (BAC) Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) has the closest business mix to JPMorgan, and it also reported this morning. EPS came in at $1.21 versus $1.12 expected, with Equities S&T up 70% to $3.62 billion and investment banking fees up 50%. Net interest income rose 9% YoY, and credit metrics improved with the net charge-off ratio dropping to 0.47% from 0.55%.

Brian Moynihan called it “one of our strongest quarters to date” and noted “pipelines remain strong, and commercial borrowing has picked up.” Shares rallied 2.06% to $60.73, validating the universal-bank thesis JPM anchored.

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3. Morgan Stanley (MS) Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) has not yet reported Q2, which makes today’s peer earnings reports a direct sentiment catalyst. The stock is up 4.55% to $231.16, the largest move among the five names. Morgan Stanley’s Q1 already showed 27.1% ROTCE, Advisory up 74%, and $118.4 billion in wealth net new assets. With JPM’s IB fees at their highest since 2021 and Goldman signaling a flywheel, MS’s advisory-heavy franchise inherits the same tailwind. Ted Pick previously described the firm as reporting “a record quarter”, and the read-through raises the bar again.

4. Wells Fargo (WFC) Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) is the closest analog to JPM’s core banking franchise, particularly on NII and consumer credit. Shares rose 0.63% to $88.22 as JPM’s 10% NII growth and stable credit card charge-offs of 3.33% supported Wells’ outlook. Wells guided full-year 2026 NII to roughly $50 billion, and its Q1 net interest margin already compressed to 2.47% from 2.67%. The macro backdrop helps: FRED credit card delinquencies eased to 2.92%, and retail sales hit $763.7 billion in May, up 0.9% month over month. WFC remains down 4.92% YTD, so a positive read-through matters most here.

5. Visa (V) Visa (NYSE:V) is the payments proxy for JPM’s consumer spending commentary. Shares climbed 2.52% to $357.75 after JPM highlighted Card Services and Auto revenue up 12% and card annual fees up more than 30%. Visa’s most recent quarter showed payments volume up 8% and cross-border volume up 11%, and JPM’s disclosure that Chase will become the new Apple Card issuer roughly 24 months from December 2025 reinforces network volumes. Ryan McInerney described Visa as “a payments hyperscaler” driven by resilient consumer spending, the exact theme JPM validated today.

Conclusion Three themes anchor today’s cross-company read-through: capital markets have decisively reopened (GS, MS, BAC benefit most), consumer credit is stabilizing rather than deteriorating (WFC, BAC, V), and buyback capacity remains robust, with JPM authorizing a fresh $50 billion program. The primary uncertainties Dimon flagged, “geopolitical tensions and wars, sticky inflation, large global fiscal deficits and elevated asset prices,” remain the swing factors. With Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo still to report, today’s earnings set a high bar that either extends the sector rally or exposes crowded positioning.

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Devin Ryan, Senior Research Analyst at Citizens, laid out a bullish setup for big banks on Monday’s CNBC segment ahead of Q2 earnings. He said: “Tomorrow is going to be, I think, a really good day to kick things off for the top six banks. We’re looking for about 25% year-over-year earnings growth.”

With Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, and Wells Fargo all reporting before the open on Tuesday, July 14, and Morgan Stanley following on Wednesday, July 15, the setup is concentrated and driven by the revival of capital markets along with commercial lending.

Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley Could Lead the Bank Earnings Boom Ryan’s core call is that the biggest upside among the big banks could sit with the most capital-markets-levered franchises. “The companies that are going to do the best are probably the ones more exposed to capital markets. So SpaceX IPO, M&A announcements are up 50% year-to-date through the first half. And so Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley probably going to be standouts. We’re looking for almost 40% earnings growth out of both of those.”

Goldman Sachs Is Built for the Capital Markets Revival Q1 2026 validated the direction. Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS | GS Price Prediction) posted EPS of $17.55 on $17.23 billion in revenue, with investment banking fees of $2.84 billion up 48% and advisory revenues nearly doubling at $1.49 billion, up 89%. CEO David Solomon said, “Goldman Sachs delivered very strong performance for our shareholders this quarter, even as market conditions became more volatile” in the firm’s Q1 release.

Morgan Stanley Enters Earnings With Record Momentum Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) delivered its own record. Ted Pick’s team reported $20.58 billion in revenue, EPS of $3.43, ROTCE of 27.1%, and advisory revenue up 74% to $978 million. Ryan’s near 40% earnings growth expectation follows Q1 net income growth of 29%.

Wall Street’s Rebound Is Lifting America’s Biggest Banks Ryan sees the capital markets tailwind lifting the rest of the group. JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM) opened 2026 with EPS of $5.94, up 17%, record Markets revenue of $11.6 billion, and advisory fees up 82% to $1.27 billion. Jamie Dimon flagged “increased fiscal stimulus, the benefits of deregulation, AI-driven capital investment and the Fed’s asset purchases” as tailwinds.

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Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) grew EPS 25% year-over-year to $1.11, with equities trading up 30% and investment banking fees up 21%. Citigroup (NYSE:C) delivered net income up 42% and Markets revenue crossing $7 billion for the first time, with equity markets up 39%. Wells Fargo grew EPS 15%, with CIB Markets up 19% and equity capital markets share expanding.

The Next Banking Opportunity May Be Hiding Outside the Mega Banks Capital markets stocks were up nearly 50% last year and up 20% in 2026 to date, with the S&P 500 up 15% in the second quarter. Goldman shares are up 21.19% year-to-date, and Morgan Stanley is up 26.55%. Ryan’s cautious because: “We think a lot is actually baked in. And so we’re looking for areas where there’s probably more upside. We still think there’s areas of capital markets like middle market sponsors. Private equity still have quite a way to recover.”

On commercial lending re-acceleration, he pointed to two forces. “So data centers is a big piece of the reacceleration, but then also just capital markets turning back on. So as you think about [the] M&A market that’s been dormant, starting to get back to something more normal that leads to lending opportunities into those deals.”

Key Takeaways The major banks enter Q2 earnings with strong momentum across investment banking, trading, and commercial lending. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley may deliver the strongest results because of their greater exposure to the capital markets recovery, with Ryan expecting earnings growth of nearly 40% from both firms.

Expectations are already high, however, and much of the rebound may be reflected in mega-bank share prices. The next opportunities could emerge among middle-market firms and other lenders that stand to benefit as private equity activity, M&A, and data center investment recover. A broader market pullback or slowdown in AI-related spending remains the clearest risk to that outlook.

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At current prices: JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM | JPM Price Prediction) at $336.47 looks fully valued, Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) at $222.28 appears stretched, and Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) at $59.67 screens as the most attractive on valuation. Big-bank earnings power has expanded meaningfully into 2026, but the three sit at very different points on the risk-reward curve.

All three posted strong Q1 2026 results. JPMorgan grew EPS 17% year over year to $5.94, Morgan Stanley delivered record revenue of $20.58B with 27.1% ROTCE, and Bank of America grew EPS 25% to $1.11.

What separates them is valuation, analyst positioning, and how much good news is already priced in.

JPMorgan: Priced For Its Own Perfection The bull case is clean. JPMorgan compounds book value while returning $12.2 billion in quarterly capital, Markets revenue hit a record $11.60B, and IB fees rose 28% as advisory activity re-accelerated. At a trailing P/E of 16 and forward P/E of 15, the multiple is reasonable for a bank earning 16.5% ROE.

The bear case: the stock has done the work already. Shares are up 18.97% over one year and sit near the 52-week high of $341.91. Consensus analyst target is $352.76, implying modest upside, and ratings skew cautious: 4 Strong Buy, 8 Buy, and 12 Hold.

At $336.47, JPMorgan screens as fully valued in our research view. The franchise is best-in-class, but with YTD gains of 5.89% and the target barely above spot, risk-reward looks symmetric. Existing holders may collect the 1.76% yield while monitoring for a pullback.

Morgan Stanley: Great Business, Stretched Stock Morgan Stanley is executing beautifully. Wealth Management client assets reached $7.34T, equity trading grew 25%, and advisory revenue jumped 74%. EPS has beaten estimates in all five most recent quarters.

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The problem: the market has priced all of it. Shares are up 26.55% YTD and 59.08% over one year, outrunning the broader market. Consensus analyst target of $216.48 now sits below current price, and ratings carry 1 Sell and 1 Strong Sell, unusual for a mega-cap bank. At a P/E of 20 and price-to-book of 3.4, Morgan Stanley is the most expensive of the three.

At $222.28, Morgan Stanley looks stretched in our research view. When analyst consensus prints a lower target than spot, when P/B pushes above 3x for a bank, and when a single soft Wealth quarter could reset the multiple, the setup argues for caution. A re-entry point closer to $190 looks more compelling on the numbers.

Bank of America: The Cheapest Compounding Story Bank of America is the mirror image of Morgan Stanley. NII grew 9% to $15.74B, deposits notched an 11th straight quarter of growth, card charge-offs improved to 3.64%, and management guided FY2026 NII growth of 5% to 7%. The stock trades at a forward P/E of 13 and price-to-book of just 1.536.

Shares are up 10.47% YTD and 30.76% over one year, yet still leave room to run. Consensus target of $65.79 implies further upside, and ratings are the most bullish of the group: 6 Strong Buy, 15 Buy, 3 Hold, zero Sells. Goldman’s outlook backs the setup, noting “the US banking sector remains sound” with benign asset quality trends heading into 2026.

At $59.67, Bank of America screens as the most attractive of the three on valuation. It offers double-digit implied upside, the widest analyst support, an improving efficiency ratio of 61%, and a 1.86% dividend while investors wait. The main risk is a sharp rate cut, where 100bps would reduce NII by $2.0B, and it is a well-telegraphed sensitivity. Cheapest bank, best setup on the numbers.

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Key Takeaways Most big banks have positive Earnings ESPs, signaling earnings beat potential. Trading, lending and capital markets strength support financial ETFs. XLF, IYG, IYF, VFH and IAI offer diversified exposure to big banks. Wall Street's biggest banks are heading into second-quarter earnings season with investor expectations running high. Strong trading activity, resilient consumer spending, healthy loan demand, good capital market activity and a pickup in artificial intelligence (AI)-driven capital markets activity have fueled optimism.

However, after a powerful rally in bank stocks this year, investors are increasingly questioning whether much of the good news has already been priced in. State Street SPDR S&P Bank ETF (KBE - Free Report) is up 12.4% this year, outpacing State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY - Free Report) (up 10.5% year to date).

The upcoming earnings reports could determine whether the banking sector has further upside or whether expectations have become too optimistic.

Inside Our Surprise PredictionAccording to our methodology, a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) when combined with a positive Earnings ESP, increases the chances of an earnings beat, while companies with a Zacks Rank #4 or 5 (Sell rated) are best avoided. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Among the big six, Goldman Sachs Group (GS - Free Report) , JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM - Free Report) , Wells Fargo & Company (WFC - Free Report) , Bank of America Corporation (BAC - Free Report) and Citigroup Inc. (C) will report earnings on July 14.  Morgan Stanley (MS - Free Report) will report on July 15. 

GS has a Zacks Rank #2 and an ESP of 0.00%.

JPM has a Zacks Rank #2 and an Earnings ESP of +0.49%.

WFC has a Zacks Rank #3 and an Earnings ESP of -0.36%.

BAC has a Zacks Rank #3 and an Earnings ESP of +0.64%.     

C has a Zacks Rank #3 and an Earnings ESP of +0.64%.

MS has a Zacks Rank #3 and an Earnings ESP of +0.86%.

Are Positive ESPs Good for Financial ETFs?As discussed above, chances of a broad-based earnings beat are high as majority of stocks have a positive ESP. We do not expect bearish earnings results from big banks, as big banks have benefited from a revival in capital markets activity supported by AI-related investment themes, robust merger and acquisition activity, and improving equity and debt issuance.

Analysts also expect major banks to deliver one of their strongest trading quarters of the decade, second only to the record performance posted in the first quarter, per Bloomberg data, as quoted on Yahoo Finance.

Inside Earnings & Revenue Growth ExpectationsBelow, we mention the Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter earnings per share (EPS) and revenues of the big six banks (as of July 10, 2026).

JPM: EPS of $5.59 (up 12.70% year over year) on revenues of $48.71 billion (up 8.45% year over year)

WFC: EPS of $1.73 (up 12.34% year over year) on revenues of $21.80 billion (up 4.71% year over year)

C: EPS of $2.72 (up 38.78% year over year) on revenues of $23.68 billion (up 9.28% year over year)

BAC: EPS of $1.13 (up 26.97% year over year) on revenues of $30.62 billion (up 15.69% year over year)

GS: EPS of $14.47 (up 32.63% year over year) on revenues of $16.49 billion (up 13.10% year over year)

MS: EPS of $2.89 (up 35.68% year over year) on revenues of $19.38 billion (up 15.43% year over year)

Investors Wonder if This Is "Peak Bank"Despite the upbeat outlook, many investors remain cautious after the sector's impressive rally.

UBS analyst Erica Najarian noted earlier this month that investors are "naturally skeptical," adding that "it's been awhile since it's felt like 'peak bank,’ as quoted on Yahoo Finance.

HSBC analyst Saul Martinez believes the industry's fundamentals remain healthy but expects the quarter to reinforce, rather than significantly improve, current market expectations, the same Yahoo source revealed.

Credit Quality Remains HealthyEarlier concerns about banks' exposure to private credit markets have eased. NSBC analyst Martinez described overall credit conditions as "benign," suggesting there are few signs of deterioration in loan quality despite elevated interest rates and ongoing economic uncertainty, per the same Yahoo Finance article.

Following the Federal Reserve's annual stress tests in late June, many large banks also announced higher dividends and expanded share repurchase programs, reinforcing confidence in their capital strength.

Consumer Spending Continues to Support GrowthAnother important pillar supporting the banking sector is the resilience of the U.S. consumer. The Bank of America Institute reported that card spending increased 6.3% year over year in June, marking the strongest annual growth in more than four years, as mentioned in the same Yahoo Finance article.

Bottom LineThe likelihood of positive earnings surprise and still-stable economic factors strengthen the case for investing in financial ETFs. Continued strength in lending, trading and investment banking activities has been a key positive for the sector so far.

Hence, investors pinning hopes on a bank rally should track financial ETFs like iShares U.S. Financial Services ETF (IYG - Free Report) , iShares US Financials ETF (IYF - Free Report) , State Street Financial Sel Sec SPDR ETF (XLF - Free Report) and Vanguard Financials Index Fund ETF Shares (VFH - Free Report) . These funds have considerable exposure to the aforementioned stocks.

The aforementioned ETFs have moderate exposure to Goldman. iShares U.S. Broker-Dealers & Securities Exchanges ETF (IAI - Free Report) has significant exposure to the stock.

However, while the near-term backdrop remains favorable, higher energy prices, elevated AI valuations, sticky inflation, the possibility of a hawkish Fed, a flatter yield curve and signs of a weakening labor market could weigh on lending and investment banking activity.

Earnings season ramps up in full gear this week kicked off by quarterly financial results from some of the biggest publicly traded U.S. banks Tuesday and Wednesday.

Here’s a look at the big banks set to repot this week, their 2026 performance and recent history.

• Wells Fargo stock is holding steady today. Where are WFC shares going?

Big Bank Earnings ReportsSix big banks report quarterly financial results this week and five of the banks have something in common: a recent record of beating analyst estimates for earnings per share and revenue.

That recent history has translated into stock performance with the one laggard down year-to-date.

The six big bank stocks reporting this week are:

"While it’s been a mixed year for the financial sector overall, many of the large banks have been thriving," Freedom Capital Markets Chief Market Strategist Jay Woods said in a weekly newsletter.

The laggard to Woods is Wells Fargo, with shares down 6.5% year-to-date.

"Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and Citi have all gained over 20% as trading revenue and an improving IPO landscape have helped fuel their returns. JPMorgan and Bank of America have started to rally."

Earnings HistoryA look at the earnings history on Benzinga Pro shows that several big bank stocks have consistently beaten analyst estimates. Here is a look at each of the six big bank stocks and how they have performed versus analysts’ estimates for earnings per share and revenue over the past 10 quarters.

Recent earnings success and, in the case of Wells Fargo, failures may translate best to stock performance this year. Here is the year-to-date performance as of Friday:

Citgroup: +20.7% Goldman Sachs: +20.0% JPMorgan: +4.4% Bank of America: +8.5% Wells Fargo: -6.5% Morgan Stanley: +25.2% One of the two stocks that has beaten both earnings per share and revenue in all 10 of the past 10 quarters is the top performer, while the company that has missed estimates the most times over the past 10 quarters is the biggest underperformer.

Key Items to WatchThe performance by the big bank stocks this week could have a significant impact on the financials sector and also point to overall economic conditions for the U.S.

"Will higher for longer interest rates continue to support lending profits? Will a surge in IPOs and M&A activity supercharge Wall Street trading desks?" Woods asks in the newsletter.

Woods said what the banking company leadership says about the health of the consumer and the economy could be key items to watch this week.

"If the banks paint an optimistic picture while credit quality remains strong, it could reinforce the narrative that the economy is proving far more resilient than many expected. This could provide a needed tailwind for equities as earnings season gets underway."

The six stocks make up 30.4% of the State Street Financial Sector ETF (NYSE:XLF).

Together, the two stocks make up 15.7% of the Dow Jones Industrial Average tracking ETF.

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