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Moderna (MRNA -2.23%) has been one of the better-performing large-cap biotechs this year. The company's shares are up 404% to date and have soared 515% over the trailing-12-month period (as of writing). The company's shares are changing hands for about $148 apiece. Notice that's down meaningfully from the $176.66 highs the stock reached earlier this year after a major clinical milestone. Does this pullback signal that Moderna has little to no upside left, or can the stock still deliver outstanding returns?

Moderna scores a major victory Moderna's performance looks very different once we zoom out. Over the past five years, the company has lost a little more than 60% of its value. That's because Moderna failed to replicate the success it achieved during the early pandemic years. The company developed one of the leading coronavirus vaccines, but as the pandemic waned and demand for vaccines declined, Moderna's financial results worsened. The market also wasn't convinced that Moderna's mRNA platform could lead to massive commercial success beyond the coronavirus market and infectious diseases more broadly.

Image source: Getty Images.

But Moderna seems to have put these fears to rest. The company recently posted phase 3 clinical trial results for intismeran autogene, an investigational personalized mRNA-based cancer vaccine. It was being tested in patients with melanoma as a combination therapy with Merck's Keytruda (Moderna is developing intismeran autogene in collaboration with Merck) versus Keytruda monotherapy. Intismeran autogene was associated with significant improvements in recurrence-free survival compared to Keytruda alone.

This clinical win sets up intismeran autogene to earn approval, but that's only part of the story. The vaccine is also being investigated for several other cancers, including lung, bladder, and kidney cancers. There are important implications for Moderna even beyond intismeran autogene. Since no mRNA-based cancer vaccines have ever received approval -- and none had produced such impressive results in a phase 3 clinical trial -- the company's entire pipeline now looks far more valuable than it was before this clinical win.

Moderna has several other mRNA cancer vaccines in various stages of clinical development. We can't guarantee they will all eventually earn approval. In fact, at least some of them will fail. But intismeran autogene's phase 3 success significantly improved the probability of approval of several of Moderna's early stage assets, which explains why the stock soared by more than 100% on the news.

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What's next for Moderna? Moderna had another important milestone this year. The company's mFLUSIVA, a flu vaccine, earned approval. mFLUSIVA performed better than some approved influenza vaccines in phase 3 studies, so it may grab a decent slice of the $8.9 billion flu vaccine market (as of last year, according to some estimates). Further, some analysts estimate that intismeran autogene could generate $5.6 billion in peak revenue, which Moderna will split on a 50/50 basis with Merck.

Moderna should also make more clinical progress over the next five years. Even if some investigational products don't generate much -- or any -- revenue in this period, Moderna's shares could rise on important clinical wins. Still, the bears will point out that the stock is now worth $59.4 billion and has a price-to-sales ratio of 27.5, both of which make it look expensive for a company that currently generates little revenue and is not profitable. Even with that caveat, my view is that Moderna remains an attractive long-term bet.

The company's pipeline is full of highly promising mRNA-based candidates across various therapeutic areas, including fairly challenging targets, that should make progress in the next few years. In the meantime, we should see the company's revenue stabilize over the medium term. Its COVID-19 portfolio will play a smaller role, while new products drive consistent top-line increases. Within five years, Moderna could be a well-established mRNA leader with several approved products under its belt and a rich pipeline of candidates. It may reward patient biotech investors with attractive returns along the way.

Alyeska Investment Group L.P. cut its stake in shares of Moderna, Inc. (NASDAQ:MRNA – Free Report) by 86.2% during the 2nd quarter, according to its most recent Form 13F filing with the SEC. The institutional investor owned 560,819 shares of the company’s stock after selling 3,490,366 shares during the period. Alyeska Investment Group L.P. owned about 0.14% of Moderna worth $39,274,000 at the end of the most recent quarter.

Several other hedge funds have also bought and sold shares of the stock. BlackRock Inc. bought a new stake in Moderna during the 2nd quarter worth approximately $2,142,877,000. Capital World Investors purchased a new position in shares of Moderna during the 4th quarter valued at $378,299,000. Invesco Ltd. boosted its holdings in Moderna by 15.7% in the 3rd quarter. Invesco Ltd. now owns 8,216,163 shares of the company’s stock worth $212,223,000 after buying an additional 1,115,131 shares during the period. Theleme Partners LLP bought a new position in Moderna in the 2nd quarter worth $564,272,000. Finally, Charles Schwab Investment Management Inc. increased its stake in Moderna by 7.2% in the 4th quarter. Charles Schwab Investment Management Inc. now owns 4,621,558 shares of the company’s stock worth $136,290,000 after buying an additional 309,126 shares in the last quarter. Institutional investors own 75.33% of the company’s stock.

Moderna Price Performance Shares of NASDAQ:MRNA opened at $137.99 on Monday. The company has a market cap of $55.09 billion, a price-to-earnings ratio of -17.27 and a beta of 0.91. Moderna, Inc. has a 12 month low of $22.28 and a 12 month high of $176.66. The company has a current ratio of 2.29, a quick ratio of 2.18 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.09. The company has a 50-day moving average price of $77.11 and a 200 day moving average price of $59.85.

Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA – Get Free Report) last issued its quarterly earnings data on Friday, July 31st. The company reported ($1.97) earnings per share for the quarter, topping the consensus estimate of ($2.03) by $0.06. The company had revenue of $145.00 million for the quarter, compared to analysts’ expectations of $102.93 million. Moderna had a negative return on equity of 28.30% and a negative net margin of 141.43%.The firm’s revenue for the quarter was up 2.1% on a year-over-year basis. During the same period in the previous year, the firm posted ($2.13) earnings per share. As a group, equities research analysts predict that Moderna, Inc. will post -6.11 earnings per share for the current year. Insider Buying and Selling at Moderna In related news, President Stephen Hoge sold 53,336 shares of the firm’s stock in a transaction on Monday, June 15th. The stock was sold at an average price of $51.37, for a total value of $2,739,870.32. Following the completion of the sale, the president directly owned 1,483,848 shares in the company, valued at $76,225,271.76. This trade represents a 3.47% decrease in their ownership of the stock. The sale was disclosed in a filing with the Securities & Exchange Commission, which is available through this hyperlink. The transaction was executed under a pre-arranged Rule 10b5-1 trading plan. Also, insider Shannon Thyme Klinger sold 3,471 shares of Moderna stock in a transaction on Thursday, June 4th. The stock was sold at an average price of $50.00, for a total transaction of $173,550.00. Following the transaction, the insider directly owned 67,468 shares of the company’s stock, valued at $3,373,400. The trade was a 4.89% decrease in their ownership of the stock. Additional details regarding this sale are available in the official SEC disclosure. The transaction was executed under a pre-arranged Rule 10b5-1 trading plan. The sale was made to cover tax withholding obligations related to the vesting of equity awards. Corporate insiders own 10.80% of the company’s stock.

Wall Street Analysts Forecast Growth MRNA has been the topic of several research analyst reports. Morgan Stanley boosted their price objective on Moderna from $39.00 to $89.00 and gave the company an “equal weight” rating in a research report on Thursday, August 20th. Jefferies Financial Group reissued a “hold” rating on shares of Moderna in a research note on Wednesday, August 19th. Piper Sandler reissued an “overweight” rating on shares of Moderna in a report on Monday, August 3rd. Argus raised Moderna from a “hold” rating to a “buy” rating and set a $180.00 price target on the stock in a report on Friday. Finally, Loop Capital set a $135.00 price objective on shares of Moderna in a report on Wednesday, August 19th. Seven research analysts have rated the stock with a Buy rating, thirteen have assigned a Hold rating and three have assigned a Sell rating to the company’s stock. According to data from MarketBeat, Moderna has an average rating of “Hold” and an average target price of $80.53.

Get Our Latest Stock Report on MRNA

Key Moderna News Here are the key news stories impacting Moderna this week:

Positive Sentiment: Moderna and Merck reported that their personalized mRNA melanoma vaccine, intismeran, combined with Keytruda, met the goals of a Phase 3 study involving 1,137 patients. The treatment reduced the risk of melanoma recurrence and distant spread versus Keytruda alone, strengthening the case for Moderna’s oncology pipeline and the commercial potential of the partnership. Reuters cancer vaccine breakthrough article Positive Sentiment: The U.S. FDA approved Moderna’s updated 2026–2027 Spikevax and mNEXSPIKE COVID-19 vaccines, targeting the XFG subvariant. The approval preserves access to the seasonal COVID-19 vaccine market, though future demand remains an important uncertainty. Reuters FDA approval article Positive Sentiment: Argus upgraded Moderna from “Hold” to “Buy” and assigned a $180 price target, indicating additional potential upside based on the company’s oncology opportunity and recent clinical progress. Argus upgrade article Neutral Sentiment: Jim Cramer advised a viewer to hold Moderna after the stock’s sharp rally, reflecting continued optimism about the Phase 3 cancer-vaccine result but also caution following the run-up. Jim Cramer Moderna commentary Negative Sentiment: Moderna priced an upsized $2.6 billion offering of zero-coupon convertible senior notes due 2032, increased from the initially proposed $2.0 billion. Proceeds may fund oncology investments and debt repayment, but the larger financing raised concerns about future share dilution and explains much of the selling pressure. Moderna convertible notes offering Negative Sentiment: BioNTech’s decision to halt a mid-stage personalized mRNA colorectal-cancer vaccine trial after a review weakened sentiment across the mRNA oncology sector, raising broader questions about the difficulty of translating promising technology into successful cancer treatments. BioNTech colorectal cancer trial article Moderna Profile (Free Report)

Moderna, Inc is a biotechnology company headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts, specializing in messenger RNA (mRNA) therapeutics and vaccines. The company’s platform leverages synthetic mRNA to instruct cells to produce proteins that can prevent or treat diseases. Since its founding in 2010, Moderna has advanced from early-stage research into a broad pipeline of vaccine and therapeutic candidates designed to address infectious diseases, rare genetic disorders and chronic illnesses.

Moderna’s flagship product is its mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccine, which was the first of its kind to receive emergency use authorization and later full approval in multiple jurisdictions.

Featured Articles Five stocks we like better than Moderna Strike a Balance Between Growth and Stability With These 3 Names Ready to Rally Rubrik’s AI Security Bet Could Power the Next Leg Higher Apple’s Foldable iPhone Could Be a Catalyst, But Not a Cure-All Snowflake Is Up Nearly 50% in 2026—What Are Short Sellers Betting Against?

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Shares of Moderna, Inc. (NASDAQ:MRNA – Get Free Report) have received an average rating of “Hold” from the twenty-three research firms that are presently covering the stock, MarketBeat Ratings reports. Three equities research analysts have rated the stock with a sell recommendation, thirteen have assigned a hold recommendation and seven have issued a buy recommendation on the company. The average 12-month target price among brokers that have updated their coverage on the stock in the last year is $80.5294.

A number of research firms have weighed in on MRNA. Wolfe Research upgraded shares of Moderna from an “underperform” rating to a “peer perform” rating in a research note on Tuesday, August 25th. Loop Capital set a $135.00 price target on shares of Moderna in a research note on Wednesday, August 19th. Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft assumed coverage on shares of Moderna in a report on Friday. They issued a “hold” rating on the stock. Royal Bank Of Canada reiterated a “sector perform” rating and issued a $130.00 price objective on shares of Moderna in a research note on Wednesday, August 19th. Finally, Barclays increased their price objective on Moderna from $48.00 to $125.00 and gave the company an “equal weight” rating in a report on Monday, August 24th.

Read Our Latest Stock Analysis on MRNA

Insiders Place Their Bets In related news, insider Shannon Thyme Klinger sold 3,471 shares of the business’s stock in a transaction dated Thursday, June 4th. The stock was sold at an average price of $50.00, for a total value of $173,550.00. Following the sale, the insider directly owned 67,468 shares in the company, valued at approximately $3,373,400. The trade was a 4.89% decrease in their position. The sale was disclosed in a legal filing with the SEC, which is accessible through this hyperlink. The transaction was executed under a pre-arranged Rule 10b5-1 trading plan. The sale was made to cover tax withholding obligations related to the vesting of equity awards. Also, President Stephen Hoge sold 53,336 shares of the company’s stock in a transaction dated Monday, June 15th. The shares were sold at an average price of $51.37, for a total transaction of $2,739,870.32. Following the sale, the president directly owned 1,483,848 shares in the company, valued at approximately $76,225,271.76. This trade represents a 3.47% decrease in their ownership of the stock. The SEC filing for this sale provides additional information. The transaction was executed under a pre-arranged Rule 10b5-1 trading plan. 10.80% of the stock is owned by corporate insiders. Hedge Funds Weigh In On Moderna Large investors have recently modified their holdings of the business. TD Waterhouse Canada Inc. increased its position in Moderna by 2.6% during the second quarter. TD Waterhouse Canada Inc. now owns 3,388 shares of the company’s stock worth $246,000 after buying an additional 85 shares in the last quarter. Assetmark Inc. lifted its position in shares of Moderna by 35.1% in the first quarter. Assetmark Inc. now owns 801 shares of the company’s stock valued at $41,000 after acquiring an additional 208 shares in the last quarter. New Mexico Educational Retirement Board lifted its position in shares of Moderna by 1.9% in the fourth quarter. New Mexico Educational Retirement Board now owns 15,700 shares of the company’s stock valued at $463,000 after acquiring an additional 300 shares in the last quarter. IFP Advisors Inc boosted its stake in shares of Moderna by 5.4% during the fourth quarter. IFP Advisors Inc now owns 6,785 shares of the company’s stock valued at $200,000 after acquiring an additional 348 shares during the last quarter. Finally, Empowered Funds LLC boosted its stake in shares of Moderna by 2.6% during the fourth quarter. Empowered Funds LLC now owns 13,732 shares of the company’s stock valued at $405,000 after acquiring an additional 353 shares during the last quarter. Hedge funds and other institutional investors own 75.33% of the company’s stock.

Moderna Price Performance Shares of NASDAQ MRNA opened at $137.99 on Monday. The firm has a market capitalization of $55.09 billion, a P/E ratio of -17.27 and a beta of 0.91. The firm’s 50-day moving average price is $77.11 and its 200-day moving average price is $59.85. The company has a current ratio of 2.29, a quick ratio of 2.18 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.09. Moderna has a 1-year low of $22.28 and a 1-year high of $176.66.

Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA – Get Free Report) last issued its quarterly earnings results on Friday, July 31st. The company reported ($1.97) earnings per share for the quarter, topping analysts’ consensus estimates of ($2.03) by $0.06. Moderna had a negative net margin of 141.43% and a negative return on equity of 28.30%. The company had revenue of $145.00 million for the quarter, compared to the consensus estimate of $102.93 million. During the same period in the previous year, the firm earned ($2.13) EPS. The firm’s quarterly revenue was up 2.1% on a year-over-year basis. Equities research analysts anticipate that Moderna will post -6.11 earnings per share for the current fiscal year.

Key Stories Impacting Moderna Here are the key news stories impacting Moderna this week:

Positive Sentiment: Moderna and Merck reported that their personalized mRNA melanoma vaccine, intismeran, combined with Keytruda, met the goals of a Phase 3 study involving 1,137 patients. The treatment reduced the risk of melanoma recurrence and distant spread versus Keytruda alone, strengthening the case for Moderna’s oncology pipeline and the commercial potential of the partnership. Reuters cancer vaccine breakthrough article Positive Sentiment: The U.S. FDA approved Moderna’s updated 2026–2027 Spikevax and mNEXSPIKE COVID-19 vaccines, targeting the XFG subvariant. The approval preserves access to the seasonal COVID-19 vaccine market, though future demand remains an important uncertainty. Reuters FDA approval article Positive Sentiment: Argus upgraded Moderna from “Hold” to “Buy” and assigned a $180 price target, indicating additional potential upside based on the company’s oncology opportunity and recent clinical progress. Argus upgrade article Neutral Sentiment: Jim Cramer advised a viewer to hold Moderna after the stock’s sharp rally, reflecting continued optimism about the Phase 3 cancer-vaccine result but also caution following the run-up. Jim Cramer Moderna commentary Negative Sentiment: Moderna priced an upsized $2.6 billion offering of zero-coupon convertible senior notes due 2032, increased from the initially proposed $2.0 billion. Proceeds may fund oncology investments and debt repayment, but the larger financing raised concerns about future share dilution and explains much of the selling pressure. Moderna convertible notes offering Negative Sentiment: BioNTech’s decision to halt a mid-stage personalized mRNA colorectal-cancer vaccine trial after a review weakened sentiment across the mRNA oncology sector, raising broader questions about the difficulty of translating promising technology into successful cancer treatments. BioNTech colorectal cancer trial article About Moderna (Get Free Report)

Moderna, Inc is a biotechnology company headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts, specializing in messenger RNA (mRNA) therapeutics and vaccines. The company’s platform leverages synthetic mRNA to instruct cells to produce proteins that can prevent or treat diseases. Since its founding in 2010, Moderna has advanced from early-stage research into a broad pipeline of vaccine and therapeutic candidates designed to address infectious diseases, rare genetic disorders and chronic illnesses.

Moderna’s flagship product is its mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccine, which was the first of its kind to receive emergency use authorization and later full approval in multiple jurisdictions.

Featured Stories Five stocks we like better than Moderna Strike a Balance Between Growth and Stability With These 3 Names Ready to Rally Rubrik’s AI Security Bet Could Power the Next Leg Higher Apple’s Foldable iPhone Could Be a Catalyst, But Not a Cure-All Snowflake Is Up Nearly 50% in 2026—What Are Short Sellers Betting Against?

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SHANGHAI, CHINA - AUGUST 21, 2026 - A netizen is using his mobilephone to view Moderna logo and using his computer to view Moderna webpage in Shanghai, China on August 21, 2026. (Photo credit should read CFOTO/Future Publishing via Getty Images)

CFOTO/Future Publishing via Getty Images

This article was written by Doug Nathman, with research by his team at Trefis.

Moderna (MRNA) shares have surged over the past year, with the event that more than doubled its valuation in a single trading day occurring on August 19, 2026. On that date, Merck and Moderna announced that their Phase III melanoma trial of intismeran autogene in conjunction with KEYTRUDA had achieved its specified endpoints. Rather than focusing on what transpired on that specific day, the more pertinent question is what signs were observable beforehand. All of this information had been publicly available well prior to the readout, with some details dating back to early 2025.

Enrollment Had Already Concluded For The Melanoma TrialBy the time of its fourth-quarter 2024 report, Moderna had already communicated the crucial information: the Phase III adjuvant melanoma investigation involving intismeran, the personalized neoantigen treatment developed with Merck, was completely enrolled. This trial was among ten programs prioritized by the company for approval. A fully enrolled study no longer faces recruitment challenges; rather, it becomes a matter of counting participants and waiting for events to accumulate. The timing of its conclusion and the outcome remained uncertain.

Cost Reductions And A Collaborator Covered The WaitThe figures presented in the reports suggested a company under strain. As per its fiscal Q2 2025 results, the final quarterly report submitted before the surge commenced, trailing-twelve-month revenue was $3.06 billion, representing a 38.8% decline year over year, while the trailing operating margin was -107.1%. Alongside these results, Moderna announced it would be reducing its workforce by approximately 10%, and Merck was covering 50% of the expenses related to intismeran, as per management’s statements at that time, allowing the readout to be achieved without requiring total financial backing from the company.

Options Traders Had Stopped Anticipating An Unusually Large MovementBy August 8, 2025, implied volatility for Moderna had dropped to the 12th percentile of its trailing one-year range, a decline from the 34th percentile observed in early July 2025. A low percentile does not signal a bullish outlook; instead, it indicates that traders expected a smaller shift than what is typically seen, regardless of direction. The implied volatility was recorded at 56.9, with this percentile being calculated solely against the stock’s own historical performance over the past year.

What The Indicators Could ConveyOver the previous year, the stock yielded roughly 440%, in contrast to the approximately 21% return for the S&P 500. Pfizer saw an 18.4% increase while Alnylam Pharmaceuticals faced a 48.5% decrease in the same timeframe, indicating this was not a sector-wide reassessment. Following the melanoma data release, investors betting against the stock experienced unprecedented one-day losses. The indicators preceding the surge, all documented a year or more before the data arrived, outlined the nature of the risk rather than its outcome: enrollment had closed, funding was divided, and the market had ceased compensating for movements. The stock is currently priced around $145, at the higher end of its 52-week range of $22.36 to $174.38.

Proceeds to be utilized for general corporate purposes which may include the flexibility to invest in the growth of our oncology business and repayment of debt

Moderna will also purchase a hedge overlay intended to offset dilution up to a cap initially equal to at least a 150% premium to the stock price at pricing

CAMBRIDGE, MA / ACCESS Newswire / August 27, 2026 / Moderna, Inc. (NASDAQ:MRNA) ("Moderna"), today announced that it intends to offer, subject to market conditions and other factors, $2.0 billion aggregate principal amount of Convertible Senior Notes due 2032 (the "notes") in a private placement (the "offering") only to persons reasonably believed to be "qualified institutional buyers" pursuant to Rule 144A under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the "Securities Act"). Moderna also intends to grant the initial purchasers of the notes an option to purchase, for settlement during a 13-day period beginning on, and including, the date on which the notes are first issued, up to an additional $300.0 million aggregate principal amount of the notes.

The notes will be general senior unsecured obligations of Moderna. The notes will not bear regular interest and the principal amount of the notes will not accrete. Upon conversion, Moderna will pay or deliver, as the case may be, cash, shares of Moderna's common stock or a combination of cash and shares of Moderna's common stock, at Moderna's election. The final terms of the notes, including the initial conversion rate and certain other terms, will be determined at the time of the pricing of the notes.

Moderna expects to use the net proceeds from the offering (i) to pay the cost of the privately negotiated capped call transactions described below and (ii) for general corporate purposes, which may include the flexibility to invest in the growth of our oncology business and repayment of debt.

In connection with the pricing of the notes, Moderna expects to enter into privately negotiated capped call transactions with one or more of the initial purchasers or affiliates thereof and/or other financial institutions (the "option counterparties"). The capped call transactions will cover, subject to customary adjustments, the number of shares of Moderna's common stock that will initially underlie the notes. The capped call transactions are expected generally to reduce the potential dilution to Moderna's common stock upon any conversion of notes and/or offset any cash payments Moderna is required to make in excess of the principal amount of converted notes, as the case may be, with such reduction and/or offset subject to a cap. Moderna anticipates that the cap price of the capped call transactions will initially represent a premium of at least 150% over the last reported sale price of the common stock on the pricing date of the offering. If the initial purchasers exercise their option to purchase additional notes, Moderna expects to use a portion of the net proceeds from the sale of the additional notes to enter into additional capped call transactions with the option counterparties.

In connection with establishing their initial hedges of the capped call transactions, Moderna expects that the option counterparties or their respective affiliates will purchase shares of Moderna's common stock and/or enter into various derivative transactions with respect to Moderna's common stock concurrently with or shortly after the pricing of the notes. This activity could increase (or reduce the size of any decrease in) the market price of Moderna's common stock or the notes at that time.

In addition, Moderna expects that the option counterparties or their respective affiliates may modify their hedge positions by entering into or unwinding various derivatives with respect to Moderna's common stock and/or purchasing or selling Moderna's common stock or other securities of Moderna in secondary market transactions following the pricing of the notes and prior to the maturity of the notes (and are likely to do so following any early conversion, repurchase or redemption of the notes, to the extent Moderna unwinds a corresponding portion of the capped call transactions or if Moderna otherwise unwinds all or a portion of the capped call transactions, and during the final observation period for the conversion of notes). This activity could also cause or avoid an increase or a decrease in the market price of Moderna's common stock or the notes, which could affect the ability of a holder of notes to convert the notes and, to the extent the activity occurs during any observation period related to a conversion of notes, it could affect the number of shares and value of the consideration, if any, that a holder of notes will receive upon conversion of the notes.

The offer and sale of the notes and any shares of Moderna's common stock issuable upon conversion of the notes have not been and will not be registered under the Securities Act, any state securities laws or the securities laws of any other jurisdiction, and unless so registered, may not be offered or sold in the United States absent registration or an applicable exemption from, or in a transaction not subject to, the registration requirements of the Securities Act and other applicable securities laws.

This press release is neither an offer to sell nor a solicitation of an offer to buy any of these securities nor shall there be any sale of these securities in any state or jurisdiction in which such an offer, solicitation or sale would be unlawful prior to the registration or qualification thereof under the securities laws of any such state or jurisdiction.

About Moderna

Moderna is a pioneer and leader in the field of mRNA medicine. Through the advancement of its technology platform, Moderna is reimagining how medicines are made to transform how we treat and prevent diseases. Since its founding, Moderna's mRNA platform has enabled the development of vaccines and therapeutics across infectious diseases, cancer, rare diseases and more.

With a global team and a unique culture, driven by the company's values and mindsets, Moderna's mission is to deliver the greatest possible impact to people through mRNA medicines.

Forward-Looking Statements

This press release contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, as amended, including statements regarding: the proposed terms of the notes and capped call transactions, the timing, completion and size of the proposed offering of the notes and capped call transactions, the anticipated use of proceeds from the offering, and the grant of the option to the initial purchasers. In some cases, forward-looking statements can be identified by terminology such as "will," "may," "should," "could," "expects," "intends," "plans," "aims," "anticipates," "believes," "estimates," "predicts," "potential," "continue," or the negative of these terms or other comparable terminology, although not all forward-looking statements contain these words. The forward-looking statements in this press release are neither promises nor guarantees, and you should not place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements because they involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties, and other factors, many of which are beyond Moderna's control and which could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied by these forward-looking statements. These risks, uncertainties, and other factors include, among others, those risks and uncertainties described under the heading "Risk Factors" in Moderna's Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025, filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), and in subsequent filings made by Moderna with the SEC, which are available on the SEC's website at www.sec.gov. Except as required by law, Moderna disclaims any intention or responsibility for updating or revising any forward-looking statements contained in this press release in the event of new information, future developments or otherwise. These forward-looking statements are based on Moderna's current expectations and speak only as of the date of this press release.

Moderna Contacts

Media:

Chris Ridley
Vice President, Global Head of Communications
+1 617-800-3651
[email protected]

Investors:

Lavina Talukdar
Senior Vice President & Head of Investor Relations
+1 617-209-5834
[email protected]

SOURCE: Moderna, Inc.

It's not every day that a company already worth billions sees its shares nearly triple in a single trading session. Welcome to the world of biotech, because that's exactly what happened to Moderna Inc. NASDAQ: MRNA on Wednesday of this week, after the Massachusetts-based company stunned the market with a breakthrough that sent its stock rocketing to a multi-year high.

Moderna Today

$133.32 -41.06 (-23.55%)

As of 08/20/2026 04:00 PM Eastern

$22.28▼

$176.66$66.25

The catalyst was a set of results from a closely watched trial of an experimental skin cancer vaccine, and the numbers were dramatic enough to reprice the company instantly. Shares closed up a remarkable 177% in a single day, adding to a rally that has seen the stock climb some 465% so far this year.

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For a company whose fortunes had faded badly since its pandemic-era heyday, this is a stunning turn of events. So what exactly did Moderna announce, why has it electrified investors, and crucially, how much further might the shares have to run?

The Breakthrough Behind the SurgeAt the heart of the excitement is a personalized cancer vaccine, developed by Moderna in partnership with the pharmaceutical giant Merck & Co. Inc. NYSE: MRK. The treatment is designed to combat melanoma, a serious form of skin cancer, and it uses the same messenger RNA (mRNA) technology that underpinned Moderna's COVID-19 vaccine.

The results themselves were seriously impressive. In a large late-stage trial of more than 1,100 high-risk patients, the vaccine, used in combination with Merck's blockbuster immunotherapy drug, meaningfully outperformed the latter’s drug used on its own. It reduced the risk of cancer returning and slowed its spread, marking the first time any late-stage trial has improved the established treatment in this setting.

That last point is what makes the news so significant. The existing drug is already a hugely successful therapy, so beating it is no small feat. For the many patients who undergo surgery for melanoma only to live in fear of a recurrence, a treatment that measurably lowers that risk represents a meaningful advance.

Why the Stock Reacted as It DidThe sheer scale of the share price move suggests the market saw this as far more than a single promising drug. The most important reason is that the result strongly validates Moderna's entire approach to fighting cancer with mRNA technology.

Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) Price Chart for Friday, August, 21, 2026

This is the crux of the bull case. The company has a whole pipeline of similar vaccines in development, targeting cancers of the lung, kidney, and bladder, among others. A convincing win in melanoma raises hopes that the same underlying technology could succeed across other programs, opening up a vast potential market far beyond this one disease.

The Short Squeeze That Poured Fuel on the FirePowerful as the science is, it also doesn't fully explain the scale of the single-session move. For that, you have to understand who was standing on the other side of the trade. Moderna had become a favorite target of short sellers, investors who borrow and sell a stock in the hope of buying it back cheaper later, profiting if the price falls.

In recent weeks, as much as 12% of Moderna’s entire float was being held by shorts, so when the trial news broke, and the stock erupted, all of those bearish positions were suddenly deep underwater. The only way to stop the losses mounting was to buy the shares back, and fast.

That stampede to exit their short positions, or to “cover,” is what turned yesterday’s big rally into an explosive one. As short sellers scrambled to buy, their purchases pushed the price higher still, forcing yet more of them to capitulate in a self-reinforcing spiral known as a short squeeze. By the end of the session, those betting against the company were reportedly sitting on paper losses approaching $5 billion, a brutal reminder of how quickly a crowded short can unravel.

How Much Further Could It GoAfter a move of this magnitude, the natural question is whether the shares have further to climb, and here some caution is warranted. The full trial data have yet to be presented, and the treatment must still clear the lengthy path to regulatory approval, something management hopes could happen as early as 2027. A great deal of optimism looks to be baked into the price now, too.

Indeed, Moderna shares were trading lower in Thursday's pre-market session, surely a sign that some investors are starting to take profits. For those on the sidelines, the sensible course may be to watch how this plays out in the coming weeks and perhaps wait for the stock to consolidate before jumping in. Whatever way you play it, investors must remember all the while that biotech stocks can be brutally binary—capable of soaring on a single trial result like this one, but just as capable of slumping on the next.

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Key Takeaways Moderna reiterated up to 10% revenue growth for 2026 while lowering cost-of-sales and R&D guidance.MRNA expects $4.7B-$5.2B in year-end cash and investments, with no further credit-facility draw assumed.Moderna expects key second-half milestones in flu, melanoma and propionic acidemia programs. Moderna, Inc. (MRNA - Free Report) used its second-quarter 2026 earnings call to reinforce two priorities: preserving revenue growth while lowering costs and moving several late-stage programs toward regulatory and clinical milestones.

Revenues of $145 million topped the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $126.60 million. The GAAP loss of $1.97 per share matched the Zacks Consensus Estimate. 

MRNA Keeps 2026 Growth Target IntactChief financial officer James Mock reiterated Moderna’s target for up to 10% revenue growth in 2026. First-half revenues were about $0.5 billion, with strategic partnerships supporting international sales.

Mock expects full-year revenues to be split roughly 50% U.S. and 50% international, with the third quarter representing about 55% of second-half revenues.

The outlook assumes potential declines in COVID vaccination rates and no revenues from mFLUSIVA or mCOMBRIAX. In Q&A, Mock told a Citigroup analyst that the U.S. vaccination market remains the biggest second-half variable.

Moderna Tightens Cost and Cash OutlookManagement cut 2026 cost-of-sales guidance to $1.7 billion from $1.8 billion and R&D guidance to $2.9 billion from $3 billion. SG&A remains projected at about $1 billion.

Excluding the $0.9 billion litigation settlement charge, Moderna now expects $4.7 billion of GAAP operating expenses and about $4 billion of cash costs, each $0.2 billion better than prior guidance.

Year-end cash and investments are projected at $4.7 billion to $5.2 billion. Mock said the forecast assumes no further draw on the remaining $0.9 billion credit facility.

MRNA Builds Around Flu and mNEXSPIKEPresident Stephen Hoge highlighted mRNA-1010’s unanimous U.S. advisory committee recommendation ahead of its Aug. 5 PDUFA date. The seasonal flu vaccine is also under review in Europe, Canada and Australia.

Hoge said mNEXSPIKE captured about 24% of the U.S. retail COVID vaccine market in the 2025-2026 season and about 34% among adults age 65 and older.

A Morgan Stanley analyst asked about flu pricing. Hoge said discussions are ongoing and positioned mRNA-1010 in the enhanced-vaccine category based on its Phase III profile, with pricing dependent on approval and payer discussions.

Moderna Centers the Second Half on Key ReadoutsChief development officer David Berman said the Phase III adjuvant melanoma study of intismeran is fully enrolled, with an interim analysis expected in the second half of 2026.

The propionic acidemia registrational study is also fully enrolled. Berman told a Citigroup analyst that roughly 20 patients were enrolled and the primary endpoint uses 12 months of follow-up, placing the expected readout in the fourth quarter.

The broader intismeran program spans nine Phase II and Phase III studies. Berman said the renal cell carcinoma event threshold may be reached this year or next, while the muscle-invasive bladder cancer readout is currently expected in 2027.

MRNA Q&A Tests Intismeran and Norovirus TimingAnalysts from Goldman Sachs, TD Cowen, UBS and JPMorgan pressed for more detail on the intismeran melanoma interim. Berman declined to disclose statistical thresholds but emphasized that the Phase III design requires at least 18 months of follow-up.

Hoge added the interim analysis is expected in the second half and that Moderna will issue a press release when data are available. He also said the Massachusetts manufacturing facility can support the initial commercial indication.

Norovirus drew separate scrutiny. Hoge told a Bernstein analyst that primary-endpoint cases accrued more slowly than planned and Moderna is preparing another cohort for the coming winter.

Moderna Stays Focused on ExecutionChief executive officer Stéphane Bancel framed the second half around cost discipline, the flu regulatory decision, mNEXSPIKE expansion and major oncology and rare-disease readouts.

Management’s stated priorities are to deliver up to 10% revenue growth, reach the lowered cash-cost target and advance late-stage programs while broadening the commercial portfolio.

Zacks Signals Show a Mixed Setup for MRNAMRNA carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). Its Growth Score of A is the strongest style reading, while the Value Score of F is weak and the Momentum Score and VGM Score are both C, producing a mixed style profile. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

The Style Scores complement the Zacks Rank, with A and B representing stronger grades. A Zacks Rank #3 can still pair with varied style characteristics, but the current mix is not uniformly favorable. The Zacks Rank can change as earnings estimates are revised after the just-reported results.

Phase 1 trial will evaluate safety and immune response for a strain of Ebola virus disease with no licensed vaccines indicated

Phase 1 trial is being conducted in Canada as part of our expanded collaboration with the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI), building on Moderna's prior filovirus research

CAMBRIDGE, MA / ACCESS Newswire / August 4, 2026 / Moderna, Inc. (NASDAQ:MRNA) today announced that following Health Canada's authorization of the study, the first participants have been vaccinated in a Phase 1 clinical study in Canada evaluating mRNA-1469, the Company's investigational mRNA vaccine being evaluated to prevent Bundibugyo ebolavirus, or BDBV, disease.

The vaccine candidate is being developed using Moderna's mRNA platform, the same technology that demonstrated rapid development, scalability, and global deployment capabilities during the COVID-19 pandemic. The program also builds on Moderna's existing research and development efforts in filoviruses, including Ebola-related viruses.

"Vaccinating the first participants with mRNA-1469 marks an important milestone in advancing a vaccine candidate against Bundibugyo ebolavirus, for which no approved vaccine currently exists," said Stéphane Bancel, Chief Executive Officer of Moderna. "We are grateful to CEPI, Health Canada, the investigators and study participants for their contributions to advance this work."

mRNA-1469 is being advanced under Moderna's expanded strategic collaboration with CEPI, who has committed up to US $50 million to support preclinical testing and the Phase 1 clinical trial. The collaboration also supports the scaled manufacture of additional clinical trial doses in parallel with early clinical development. This approach is intended to enable larger Phase 2 and Phase 3 studies to begin rapidly if Phase 1 results support further development.

"Getting Moderna's vaccine candidate into a Phase 1 trial this rapidly is a major step forward in the fight against this deadly outbreak," said Dr Richard Hatchett, CEPI's Chief Executive Officer. "This fast-growing epidemic is already the second-largest Ebola outbreak in history, and cases are rising more quickly than they did in the 2014 - 2016 West Africa epidemic which remains the largest on record. Every day matters, and every vaccine candidate in clinical trials gives us another shot at getting a safe, effective vaccine to the people who need it as swiftly as possible."

The first-in-human Phase 1 study (ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT07737717) is being conducted at three sites in Canada, and will evaluate the safety, tolerability and immunogenicity of mRNA-1469 in healthy adult participants. The study is expected to enroll approximately 80 participants.

BDBV is one of the viruses that can cause Ebola disease and has been responsible for the active outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Although vaccines are available against Zaire ebolavirus, no vaccine is currently approved to protect against disease caused by BDBV. The current outbreak was declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) and a Public Health Emergency of Continental Security (PHECS) by the World Health Organization and Africa CDC, respectively. It has already caused more than 3,000 confirmed cases and more than 1,400 deaths, making it one of the largest filovirus outbreaks in history.[1]

If licensed, Moderna is committed to enabling rapid supply and access of its BDBV vaccine to affected countries and to the populations that need them. As part of its agreement with CEPI, Moderna will make available at a minimum 500,000 doses for timely supply to low- and middle-income countries under access pricing.

About Moderna

Moderna is a pioneer and leader in the field of mRNA medicine. Through the advancement of its technology platform, Moderna is reimagining how medicines are made to transform how we treat and prevent diseases. Since its founding, Moderna's mRNA platform has enabled the development of vaccines and therapeutics across infectious diseases, cancer, rare diseases and more.

With a global team and a unique culture, driven by the company's values and mindsets, Moderna's mission is to deliver the greatest possible impact to people through mRNA medicines. For more information about Moderna, please visit modernatx.com and connect with us on X, Facebook, Instagram, YouTube and LinkedIn.

Moderna Forward-Looking Statements

This press release contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, as amended, including statements regarding: Moderna's Phase 1 clinical trial of mRNA-1469; the capabilities of Moderna's mRNA platform; Moderna's strategic collaboration with CEPI and CEPI's investment; the ability to rapidly advance into Phase 2 and Phase 3 studies; and the potential for future licensure of a BDBV vaccine and Moderna's ability to enable rapid supply and access. In some cases, forward-looking statements can be identified by terminology such as "will," "may," "should," "could," "expects," "intends," "plans," "aims," "anticipates," "believes," "estimates," "predicts," "potential," "continue," or the negative of these terms or other comparable terminology, although not all forward-looking statements contain these words. The forward-looking statements in this press release are neither promises nor guarantees, and you should not place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements because they involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties, and other factors, many of which are beyond Moderna's control and which could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied by these forward-looking statements. These risks, uncertainties, and other factors include, among others, those risks and uncertainties described under the heading "Risk Factors" in Moderna's Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025, filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), and in subsequent filings made by Moderna with the SEC, which are available on the SEC's website at www.sec.gov. Except as required by law, Moderna disclaims any intention or responsibility for updating or revising any forward-looking statements contained in this press release in the event of new information, future developments or otherwise. These forward-looking statements are based on Moderna's current expectations and speak only as of the date of this press release.

Moderna Contacts

Media:
Chris Ridley
Vice President, Global Head of Communications
+1 617-800-3651 [email protected]

Sacha Kennedy
Director, Communications and Media, Canada
[email protected]

Investors:
Lavina Talukdar
Senior Vice President & Head of Investor Relations
+1 617-209-5834 [email protected]

[1] https://www.who.int/emergencies/alert-and-response

SOURCE: Moderna, Inc.

Moderna (MRNA 3.77%) soared onto the scene in early pandemic days with its messenger RNA technology and delivered a coronavirus vaccine in a matter of months. As the vaccine brought in blockbuster revenue, Moderna's stock price roared higher. In fact, from the start of 2020 through early August 2021, it climbed more than 2,000%.

In recent years, as demand for the coronavirus vaccine declined, the biotech company also saw its profits shrink and even turn into losses. And though the pipeline remained robust, investors had difficulty seeing Moderna as more than a coronavirus vaccine player. All of this led to declines in the stock price, with it sliding more than 80% from its peak.

But Moderna has made significant progress advancing pipeline programs and cost-cutting efforts, and this year, investors have been sitting up and taking notice. The stock has skyrocketed, climbing 109%. Jim Cramer of CNBC's Mad Money calls it "finally investable again." Is Moderna a no-brainer buy on its recent pullback? Let's find out.

Image source: Getty Images.

Moderna's disappointments As mentioned, Moderna struggled in recent years as it took time to transition from a coronavirus vaccine company to a player that investors could see as a multi-product company across treatment areas. Moderna faced its share of disappointments along the path, too, with its respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccine delivering sales that fell short of expectations during its first season on the market and its cytomegalovirus (CMV) candidate failing in late-stage trials.

These sorts of setbacks aren't uncommon for biotech and pharma companies, but following the decline in coronavirus vaccine sales, they added to Moderna's difficulties. But the biotech company progressed in its efforts to realign costs with its opportunities and advance promising programs.

In the latest quarterly update, Moderna reiterated its goal of generating as much as 10% revenue growth this year. And in the quarter, the company delivered a 26% reduction in adjusted cash costs.

Moderna currently has three approved products in the U.S. -- two coronavirus vaccines and its RSV vaccine -- and it may be on the way to launching a fourth. Regulators currently are reviewing the company's flu vaccine candidate, mRNA-1010, and a decision is expected on or before Aug. 5. The company also recently won approval in Europe for its combined coronavirus/flu vaccine -- the world's first.

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Future growth drivers Moderna's late-stage candidates and commercialized medicine focus areas are infectious disease vaccines, rare diseases, and oncology. And here, late-stage candidates may drive significant growth in the coming years. For example, intismeran autogene, a personalized cancer therapy, is being studied in several phase 3 trials, and the company's propionic acidemia study is fully enrolled, with data expected later this year. This study may support a regulatory submission.

"Moderna's got a plethora of thoughtful, new products and clear roadmap to profitability for the first time in such a long time," said CNBC's Jim Cramer.

Meanwhile, Moderna stock, though it's soared more than 100% this year, has declined 24% from a peak on July 6. Is the stock a no-brainer buy after this pullback? Moderna is a buy, but investors shouldn't rush to get in on the stock immediately. At today's level, it's reasonable to pick up the shares, but I wouldn't expect them to soar overnight to an out-of-reach price.

Your decision may depend on your investing strategy. Cautious investors might wait a bit longer as Moderna's late-stage candidates progress and then consider picking up a few shares. Aggressive investors, however, may aim to start building a position today, on the dip, and potentially add to this position over time.

Even if Moderna's performance in the second half of the year isn't as spectacular as it was in the first half, that's OK -- the company clearly has reached a key transition point on its path to becoming a multi-product player addressing numerous treatment areas. And that makes it a fantastic stock to buy now or in the coming quarters and hold onto for the long term.

Moderna Inc (NASDAQ:MRNA, XETRA:0QF) is expected to report second quarter results on July 31, with investors focused on the impact of seasonal COVID-19 vaccine demand and updates on the company’s late-stage pipeline, including anticipated Phase III melanoma data.

Jefferies analysts expect a largely uneventful earnings report after Moderna previously guided for second-quarter revenue of $50 million to $100 million, down from $389 million in the first quarter, reflecting the seasonal nature of COVID vaccine sales.

The analysts forecast a loss of $1.99 per share on revenue of about $100 million, compared with consensus expectations for a loss of $1.97 per share.

“COVID sales are mostly weighted to H2 2026,” Jefferies wrote, noting that lower vaccination rates year-over-year are also expected to weigh on near-term revenue.

The firm expects management could reiterate its 2026 revenue outlook for growth of up to 10% year over year, which would imply revenue of more than $2.1 billion.

Jefferies said potential upside to Moderna’s 2026 sales outlook could come from stabilization in US COVID revenue, which declined from approximately $1.2 billion in 2025. The firm expects international partnerships, including those in Canada, Australia and the UK, to contribute to growth and help create a more balanced revenue mix between US and ex-US markets.

Investors are also watching Moderna’s pipeline progress, particularly Phase III data for mRNA-4157, the company’s personalized cancer vaccine candidate being evaluated in combination with Merck & Co.’s Keytruda in melanoma. Jefferies highlighted the upcoming Phase III INTerpath-001 trial data as a major potential catalyst for the stock, with results expected in the second half of 2026.

The analysts pointed to recent five-year Phase IIb data as supportive of the ongoing Phase III study in high-risk adjuvant melanoma, which enrolled 1,089 patients. Jefferies wrote that management appears confident in the timing of the readout based on event accrual and said a statistically significant result could have a meaningful impact on investor sentiment.

Beyond oncology, Moderna has several additional potential catalysts in 2026, including regulatory action for its mFluSiva flu vaccine candidate, which Jefferies expects could receive US approval by August 5 following a positive advisory committee review. However, the analysts expect commercial sales to begin in 2027.

The firm also highlighted potential Phase III updates for Moderna’s norovirus vaccine candidate mRNA-1403 and pivotal data for mRNA-3927, an investigational treatment for propionic acidemia, as additional events to watch later this year.

Jefferies noted that Moderna’s shares have outperformed the broader biotechnology sector year to date, gaining 124% compared with a 30% rise in the XBI biotechnology ETF, with much of the recent momentum tied to expectations around the company’s oncology pipeline and the potential of its mRNA technology platform.

Shares of Moderna traded hands at $67 on Tuesday afternoon.

Moderna's (MRNA +2.57%) share price has more than doubled this year as the market has grown increasingly optimistic about the company's pipeline and encouraging regulatory progress for its flu vaccine. But after such a sharp rally, it's fair to ask whether there's still an opportunity here to make some money.

What comes next for Moderna? The investment case for Moderna isn't just about COVID-19 vaccines anymore. It's about what comes next.

Today, the company has three commercial products, multiple late-stage vaccine programs, and an expanding pipeline that stretches well beyond infectious diseases. Moderna is developing personalized cancer vaccines in partnership with Merck and pursuing therapies for rare genetic disorders.

Image source: Getty Images.

The company is now preparing for multiple product launches in 2027 and 2028, including seasonal flu, a flu/COVID-19 combination vaccine, and a norovirus vaccine. That's a dramatically different company than the one investors knew during the pandemic, when nearly all of its revenue came from a single COVID-19 vaccine. If even a handful of these late-stage programs reach the market, Moderna could become a much more diversified biotechnology company with multiple sources of recurring revenue. And the financial picture is improving, too.

Possible breakeven by 2028 During the first quarter of 2026, Moderna generated $389 million in revenue, up from $108 million a year earlier. Although the company still posted a net loss, it finished the quarter with approximately $7.5 billion in cash and investments, providing it with ample resources to continue funding its research pipeline. Management also continues targeting up to 10% revenue growth in 2026 while working toward cash breakeven by 2028.

The biggest near-term catalyst may be the company's flu vaccine. An FDA advisory committee recently voted 9-0 to recommend approval for Moderna's seasonal influenza vaccine for adults 50 and older. While the FDA isn't required to follow the panel's recommendation, it often does, with a final decision expected in early August. Of course, that doesn't mean the stock is without risk.

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High expectations for Moderna Much of Moderna's recent rally reflects higher expectations, and several important clinical readouts (including late-stage melanoma data) are still ahead. Any disappointing results could quickly change investor sentiment. But it's still hard to justify passing on the stock, even after its latest run.

You see, Moderna is no longer just a play on COVID-19. It's actually becoming a highly successful, diversified biotechnology company with multiple opportunities to create value over the next several years. After such a strong run, don't expect the shares to move in a straight line. But if you're thinking long-term, Moderna still offers considerable upside.

Moderna Inc. MRNA shares rose 9.2% on Thursday, making the biotechnology company one of the top performers in the S&P 500.

Investors responded positively to new pipeline updates, encouraging influenza vaccine data, and favorable analyst commentary.

The stock extended its recent rally after climbing to a new annual high on Wednesday.

At one point, shares gained nearly 12% as investors welcomed the company's latest Science Day presentation and progress across its mRNA development programs.

Investor sentiment also received a boost after an FDA advisory panel unanimously supported Moderna's mRNA-1010/mFLUSIVA influenza vaccine for adults aged 50 to 64 and those 65 and older.

The recommendation comes ahead of a Prescription Drug User Fee Act (PDUFA) decision expected on Aug. 5, 2026, as well as planned global regulatory filings.

During its recent Science Day presentation, Moderna outlined plans to expand its mRNA platform beyond infectious disease vaccines into oncology, autoimmune diseases and other therapeutic areas.

The company showcased programs targeting multiple myeloma, ovarian cancer and in vivo CAR-T therapies, while emphasizing increased use of artificial intelligence, machine learning, automation and robotics to accelerate research and development.

Plans to begin the in vivo CAR-T program mRNA-6007 in 2027 also contributed to investor optimism.

Chief Executive Officer Stéphane Bancel said the company's strategy extends across multiple areas of development.

Working across three strategic horizons, we are applying our mRNA platform expertise to validate, scale and expand our modalities, with new modalities in the clinic, including T-cell engagers, and new modalities soon to be in the clinic, like in vivo CAR-T. At the same time, we are driving innovation by using data, AI and machine learning, and robotics to accelerate discovery and continuously improve how we execute for near-term growth while fuelling the next generation of mRNA medicines for patients around the world.

Analysts remained constructive on Moderna's long-term prospects despite differing views on the pace of commercialization.

Jefferies maintained a Hold rating and a $45 price target, stating that while eventual approval of the influenza vaccine appears likely, meaningful flu-related revenue is not expected until 2027.

Piper Sandler took a more optimistic stance, raising its price target to $77 from $69 while reiterating an Overweight rating following the recent rally.

The positive analyst commentary added to growing optimism surrounding Moderna's expanding pipeline beyond COVID-19 vaccines.

Financial position remains supported by cash reservesDespite renewed enthusiasm surrounding its research programs, Moderna continues to operate at a loss as it invests heavily in product development.

The company generated approximately $389 million in quarterly revenue and about $1.94 billion in trailing 12-month revenue.

However, it reported a net loss of roughly $1.34 billion in the latest quarter and an EBITDA loss of approximately $1.28 billion. Free cash flow stood at negative $692 million.

Moderna has approximately $5.21 billion in cash and short-term investments, a current ratio of 2.4 and long-term debt of about $1.25 billion, providing financial flexibility as it continues investing in its pipeline.

CNBC's Jim Cramer also expressed optimism about the company's direction.

“For the first time in a long time, the company seems like it has something to get excited about", Cramer said on Wednesday.

He added that Moderna's “plethora of thoughtful, new products” is presenting a clear roadmap to profitability for the first time in a long while.

However, Cramer also urged patience, saying, “I recommend waiting for a pullback before you buy. Take your time. I think Moderna’s got a bright future though, but it’ll take years to get there.”

After a significant slump following the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, Moderna (MRNA +0.53%) share prices have ripped higher over the past year, surging nearly 150%. Various factors have driven Moderna's rebound, including regulatory progress on one of its most anticipated products.

Yet even as this news, plus additional promising announcements, suggests a further recovery ahead for this pandemic-era favorite, keep in mind how much of this "comeback potential" is already priced into one of the hottest biotech stocks.

Image source: Getty Images.

Why Moderna is surging higher On June 18, Moderna disclosed how a Food and Drug Administration (FDA) advisory committee voted unanimously that the benefits of its mRNA-based flu vaccine, mRNA-1010, outweigh the risks among patients aged 50 or over. The FDA could approve mRNA-1010 as soon as Aug. 5. The candidate is also currently under regulatory review in Australia, Canada, and the European Union.

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Other news has also lifted sentiment. The company's recent investor day also included a surprise announcement that it is gearing up to develop an in vivo CAR-T candidate. Success with this endeavor could help Moderna diversify into respiratory, oncology, and rare-disease treatments.

Tread carefully amid the hype There's substance to the market's bullish shift on Moderna, but things have arguably gotten out of hand. After its hot run, the company now has a market cap of around $26.7 billion. As Moderna is currently unprofitable, this valuation is clearly based upon the future potential of its non-COVID-19 products. However, the estimated total addressable market for flu vaccines is only around $9.5 billion. Moderna will likely need to gain dominant market share for this to translate into sales and earnings that help justify the stock's current valuation.

Even when factoring in future potential with CAR-T and other treatments, many of these early products remain years away from commercialization. In the meantime, as Moderna continues to burn through its cash position to fund its post-COVID-19 comeback, the company could be at increased risk of a dilutive equity offering. Even if you're bullish on Moderna's long-term rebound potential, you may want to wait until some of the latest hype fades before buying.

Thomas Niel has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Moderna. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

© SDI Productions / E+ via Getty Images

Shares of Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA | MRNA Price Prediction) are up 14% to $68 and change in afternoon trading Friday, extending a remarkable run for the mRNA pioneer. Intraday, MRNA stock hit a new 52-week high of $69.29.

The rally easily outpaces peer vaccine makers. Merck (NYSE:MRK) stock is up 2% to $128, while Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) stock trades up 2% to $24 and change. On a single-session basis, Moderna stock is clearly leading the vaccine complex.

There’s no fresh same-day headline that cleanly explains the size of the move. Instead, traders appear to be extending momentum from a de-risking event last week, combined with bullish pipeline messaging and a likely short-covering component in a heavily traded name.

FDA Panel De-Risking and Pipeline Optimism Fuel the Run The biggest catalyst in the rear-view mirror was an FDA advisory committee unanimously endorsing Moderna’s flu vaccine, mFlusiva (mRNA-1010), for adults 50 and older. That vote is a key step ahead of the August 5, 2026 PDUFA date, which would mark Moderna’s fifth approved product if cleared.

Moderna also held a Science Day this week highlighting its push beyond vaccines into oncology and autoimmune disease, including T-cell engagers, an in-vivo CAR-T program, and a personalized cancer vaccine, with messaging around a 2028 break-even goal. Jefferies raised its MRNA price target to $53 from $45, while keeping a Hold rating.

The fundamental backdrop has been improving. Moderna’s Q1 2026 revenue came in at $389 million, up 264% year over year and beating consensus by 65%, with the company reaffirming guidance for up to 10% revenue growth in 2026 in its most recent 10-Q filing.

Moderna Leads, but Merck Won the Week Zoom out and the picture gets more nuanced. Over the past month, Moderna stock is up 45%, while Merck stock has added 7% and Pfizer stock has fallen 6%. Year to date, the gap is even wider, with Moderna up 130% against Merck’s 21% gain and Pfizer’s modest 3% decline.

Pfizer remains the laggard. Comirnaty revenue fell 59% to $232 million in Q1 2026, underscoring how reliant the company still is on its non-COVID portfolio. Pfizer’s forward P/E ratio of 8x and 7% dividend yield keep it a value-and-income story rather than a momentum trade.

The Street Is Still Cautious on Moderna For all the enthusiasm, the sell-side has not fully signed off. The MRNA stock consensus analyst target price sits at $43.45, well below today’s quote, with 16 Hold ratings against a smaller cluster of Buys and Sells. Leerink sits near $24 and Morgan Stanley near $33, meaning Moderna stock is running ahead of where most of the Street is positioned.

Moderna’s insiders have been net sellers as well, with 75 recent insider transactions tilting toward selling. That doesn’t invalidate the bull case, but it argues for keeping position sizes modest given MRNA stock’s volatility profile and forward P/E ratio of 23x on still-uncertain forward earnings.

What to Watch Next The next clear data point is the August 5, 2026 FDA decision on mRNA-1010. Investors can also watch upcoming Phase 3 readouts for norovirus, intismeran in melanoma, and propionic acidemia, any of which could shift the medium-term narrative for Moderna.

For today, the answer to the title’s question is clear. On a single-day basis, and across the past month and year to date, Moderna stock is decisively outperforming Merck stock and Pfizer stock. Whether the stock can hold above the $65 level into next week may say more about momentum traders than about the underlying biotech story.

Provides broad overview of Company's research and early development programs expected to continue to fuel future growth

Highlights validation of T-cell engager modality with mRNA-2808 in multiple myeloma, supporting rapid advancement of second T-cell engager mRNA-2151 in ovarian cancer

Introduces in vivo CAR-T modality with mRNA-6007 moving into early development for autoimmune diseases

CAMBRIDGE, MA / ACCESS Newswire / June 25, 2026 / Moderna, Inc. (NASDAQ:MRNA) today announced research and early development updates at its Science Day event.

"As we execute our strategic plan to become a diversified, multi-modality biotechnology company, we are preparing to manage three commercial franchises, Infectious Disease Vaccines, Intismeran, and Rare Disease Therapeutics, while advancing a broad mRNA pipeline and continuing to invest in research and development," said Stéphane Bancel, CEO of Moderna. "Working across three strategic horizons, we are applying our mRNA platform expertise to validate, scale and expand our modalities, with new modalities in the clinic, including T-cell engagers, and new modalities soon to be in the clinic, like in vivo CAR-T. At the same time, we are driving innovation by using data, AI and machine learning, and robotics to accelerate discovery and continuously improve how we execute for near-term growth while fueling the next generation of mRNA medicines for patients around the world. We are fortunate to have the privilege to make medicine at this moment in time."

Moderna is executing a strategy that balances near-term growth with long-term innovation. Building on the momentum of its four approved products -- Spikevax®, mRESVIA®, mNEXSPIKE® and mCOMBRIAX® -- the Company is driving growth through infectious disease launches, geographic expansion, and the advancement of late-stage pipeline opportunities, including its investigational intismeran autogene therapy and propionic acidemia therapeutic.

In parallel, Moderna Research and Early Development, mRED, is focused on emerging and future modalities to advance high-potential programs toward clinical proof-of-concept and first-in-human milestones. Moderna's Scientific Intelligence Engine is harnessing data, AI and machine learning, automation, and robotics to accelerate discovery and continuously improve how the Company operates.

Platform Strategy

Moderna's platform is built on three integrated pillars: mRNA science, delivery science and manufacturing processes. By combining the components of its mRNA platform, the Company creates modalities, or groups of potential mRNA medicines that share similar mRNA technologies, delivery technologies, and manufacturing processes to achieve shared product features.

These modalities turn platform expertise into repeatable development by generating proof-of-concept data from sentinel programs to de-risk modalities and accelerate development plans. Moderna has established and scaled multiple modalities, including infectious disease vaccines, intismeran autogene, and rare disease therapeutics, to validate its platform and considers these its Horizon 1 established modalities. Horizon 1 comprises Moderna's late-stage and approved products, while continuing to enable innovation in these established modalities, and drives an end-to-end path from discovery through commercialization.

Moderna Research and Early Development

Moderna Research and Early Development (mRED) builds Moderna's next growth horizons by advancing differentiated, platform-enabled modalities. Horizon 2 emerging modalities and Horizon 3 future modalities are led by mRED to scale and expand the Company's mRNA platform. Horizon 2 modalities are in the clinic and awaiting human proof-of-concept. The majority are in Phase 1/2 studies in oncology, with a multiple sclerosis therapeutic in Phase 2. Horizon 3 modalities have the potential to advance to first-in-human clinical trials by the end of 2027.

Scientific Intelligence Engine

Data from across Moderna's three Horizons powers an AI-enabled engine for accelerated discovery. This includes data generated by the Company's mRNA platform as well as internal proprietary and publicly available data. The engine feeds a continuous learning loop that helps de-risk program development through mRNA platform innovation.

Early Pipeline Progress

Highlights from Moderna's early-stage pipeline include:

Horizon 2

mRNA-4106 (Cancer antigen therapy): Encodes shared nonmutated cancer testes antigens designed to elicit T-cell immune responses against tumor cells. The Phase 1 study is ongoing with mRNA-4106 as monotherapy in advanced solid tumors.

mRNA-4200 (Cancer antigen therapy): Encodes shared nonmutated tumor associated antigens designed to elicit T-cell immune responses against tumors. The Phase 1 study is planned in combination with pembrolizumab in advanced solid tumors.

mRNA-4194 (Cancer antigen therapy): Encodes frameshift peptides frequently identified in Lynch syndrome, an inherited condition that increases cancer risk. The Phase 1/2 study is planned to start in Lynch syndrome this summer with the goal of preventing progression of pre-malignancies to cancer. mRNA-4194 represents Moderna's first investigational cancer prevention program.

mRNA-4359 (Cancer antigen therapy): Designed to elicit T-cell immune responses against tumor and immunosuppressive cells, the Phase 1/2 study is ongoing with the Phase 2 portion including cohorts in first-line metastatic melanoma and first-line metastatic non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC).

mRNA-2808 (T-cell engager): Designed to use multiplexed T-cell engagers to improve efficacy and overcome mechanisms of resistance for multiple myeloma, the Phase 1/2 study is ongoing and includes three distinct T-cell engagers against clinically validated targets.

mRNA-2151 (T-cell engager): Designed to improve anti-tumor efficacy in solid tumors, this preclinical multiplexed T-cell engager program is moving toward early development in ovarian cancer. Advancement of mRNA-2151 is supported by an encouraging early clinical signal with mRNA-2808.

mRNA-1195 (Multiple sclerosis therapeutic): Designed to address Epstein-Barr virus (EBV)-associated conditions including multiple sclerosis, the Phase 1 part B data is expected in the second half of 2026. The Phase 2 study in multiple sclerosis is ongoing; with its sentinel cohort fully enrolled, the DSMB has recommended to proceed with dose escalation.

Horizon 3

mRNA-6007 (In vivo CAR-T): Designed to enable deep B-cell depletion for autoimmune conditions using a multiplexed mRNA approach with targeted lipid nanoparticles, the program aims to deliver mRNA into immune cells in vivo, enabling transient CAR expression and potential immune reset. The initial clinical focus is systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) and other B cell mediated autoimmune diseases.

For more details on the data and programmatic updates shared during Moderna's Science Day investor event today, please visit "Events and Presentations" in the Investors section of the Moderna website.

About Moderna

Moderna is a pioneer and leader in the field of mRNA medicine. Through the advancement of its technology platform, Moderna is reimagining how medicines are made to transform how we treat and prevent diseases. Since its founding, Moderna's mRNA platform has enabled the development of vaccines and therapeutics across infectious diseases, cancer, rare diseases and more.

With a global team and a unique culture, driven by the company's values and mindsets, Moderna's mission is to deliver the greatest possible impact to people through mRNA medicines. For more information about Moderna, please visit modernatx.com and connect with us on X, Facebook, Instagram, YouTube and LinkedIn.

Spikevax®, mRESVIA®, mNEXSPIKE® and mCOMBRIAX® are registered trademarks of Moderna.

Forward-Looking Statements

This press release contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, as amended, including statements regarding: the potential of Moderna's mRNA platform and promise as a multi-modality biotechnology company; Moderna's potential three commercial franchises; Moderna's ability to use data, AI and machine learning, and robotics to drive innovation; anticipated infectious disease launches and geographic expansion; Moderna's late-stage pipeline opportunities in intismeran and propionic acidemia; the potential of mRNA-4194 to address Lynch syndrome and prevent cancer from occurring; Moderna's T-cell engager modality and the encouraging early clinical signal with mRNA-2808; Moderna's in vivo CAR-T modality and the potential in autoimmune diseases; Moderna's ongoing and planned clinical studies; and anticipated progress and milestones for Moderna's programs, including anticipated timing. In some cases, forward-looking statements can be identified by terminology such as "will," "may," "should," "could," "expects," "intends," "plans," "aims," "anticipates," "believes," "estimates," "predicts," "potential," "continue," or the negative of these terms or other comparable terminology, although not all forward-looking statements contain these words. The forward-looking statements in this press release are neither promises nor guarantees, and you should not place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements because they involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties, and other factors, many of which are beyond Moderna's control and which could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied by these forward-looking statements. These risks, uncertainties, and other factors include, among others, those risks and uncertainties described under the heading "Risk Factors" in Moderna's Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025, filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), and in subsequent filings made by Moderna with the SEC, which are available on the SEC's website at www.sec.gov. Except as required by law, Moderna disclaims any intention or responsibility for updating or revising any forward-looking statements contained in this press release in the event of new information, future developments or otherwise. These forward-looking statements are based on Moderna's current expectations and speak only as of the date of this press release.

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Moderna Contacts
Media:
Chris Ridley
Vice President, Global Head of Communications
+1 617-800-3651
[email protected]

Investors:
Lavina Talukdar
Senior Vice President & Head of Investor Relations
+1 617-209-5834
[email protected]

SOURCE: Moderna, Inc.