Marathon Petroleum (MPC - Free Report) has recently been on Zacks.com's list of the most searched stocks. Therefore, you might want to consider some of the key factors that could influence the stock's performance in the near future.
Shares of this refiner have returned +28.1% over the past month versus the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +0.4% change. The Zacks Oil and Gas - Refining and Marketing industry, to which Marathon Petroleum belongs, has gained 18.6% over this period. Now the key question is: Where could the stock be headed in the near term?
Although media reports or rumors about a significant change in a company's business prospects usually cause its stock to trend and lead to an immediate price change, there are always certain fundamental factors that ultimately drive the buy-and-hold decision.
Earnings Estimate RevisionsHere at Zacks, we prioritize appraising the change in the projection of a company's future earnings over anything else. That's because we believe the present value of its future stream of earnings is what determines the fair value for its stock.
Our analysis is essentially based on how sell-side analysts covering the stock are revising their earnings estimates to take the latest business trends into account. When earnings estimates for a company go up, the fair value for its stock goes up as well. And when a stock's fair value is higher than its current market price, investors tend to buy the stock, resulting in its price moving upward. Because of this, empirical studies indicate a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and short-term stock price movements.
For the current quarter, Marathon Petroleum is expected to post earnings of $14.67 per share, indicating a change of +270.5% from the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed +28.3% over the last 30 days.
The consensus earnings estimate of $35.82 for the current fiscal year indicates a year-over-year change of +234.8%. This estimate has changed +11% over the last 30 days.
For the next fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of $27.84 indicates a change of -22.3% from what Marathon Petroleum is expected to report a year ago. Over the past month, the estimate has changed +5.7%.
With an impressive externally audited track record, our proprietary stock rating tool -- the Zacks Rank -- is a more conclusive indicator of a stock's near-term price performance, as it effectively harnesses the power of earnings estimate revisions. The size of the recent change in the consensus estimate, along with three other factors related to earnings estimates, has resulted in a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for Marathon Petroleum.
The chart below shows the evolution of the company's forward 12-month consensus EPS estimate:
12 Month EPS
Projected Revenue GrowthWhile earnings growth is arguably the most superior indicator of a company's financial health, nothing happens as such if a business isn't able to grow its revenues. After all, it's nearly impossible for a company to increase its earnings for an extended period without increasing its revenues. So, it's important to know a company's potential revenue growth.
In the case of Marathon Petroleum, the consensus sales estimate of $34.83 billion for the current quarter points to a year-over-year change of +2.1%. The $144.74 billion and $131.44 billion estimates for the current and next fiscal years indicate changes of +7% and -9.2%, respectively.
Last Reported Results and Surprise HistoryMarathon Petroleum reported revenues of $34.57 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +8.5%. EPS of $1.65 for the same period compares with -$0.24 a year ago.
Compared to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $30.35 billion, the reported revenues represent a surprise of +13.88%. The EPS surprise was +129.17%.
Over the last four quarters, Marathon Petroleum surpassed consensus EPS estimates three times. The company topped consensus revenue estimates each time over this period.
ValuationWithout considering a stock's valuation, no investment decision can be efficient. In predicting a stock's future price performance, it's crucial to determine whether its current price correctly reflects the intrinsic value of the underlying business and the company's growth prospects.
While comparing the current values of a company's valuation multiples, such as price-to-earnings (P/E), price-to-sales (P/S), and price-to-cash flow (P/CF), with its own historical values helps determine whether its stock is fairly valued, overvalued, or undervalued, comparing the company relative to its peers on these parameters gives a good sense of the reasonability of the stock's price.
As part of the Zacks Style Scores system, the Zacks Value Style Score (which evaluates both traditional and unconventional valuation metrics) organizes stocks into five groups ranging from A to F (A is better than B; B is better than C; and so on), making it helpful in identifying whether a stock is overvalued, rightly valued, or temporarily undervalued.
Marathon Petroleum is graded A on this front, indicating that it is trading at a discount to its peers. Click here to see the values of some of the valuation metrics that have driven this grade.
ConclusionThe facts discussed here and much other information on Zacks.com might help determine whether or not it's worthwhile paying attention to the market buzz about Marathon Petroleum. However, its Zacks Rank #3 does suggest that it may perform in line with the broader market in the near term.
Key Takeaways Marathon Petroleum benefits from scale, integrated logistics and premium fuel investments.HF Sinclair is favored for crude flexibility, refinery upgrades and valuation advantage.DINO trades at a lower forward price-to-sales ratio and has strategic margin expansion projects. Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC - Free Report) and HF Sinclair Corporation (DINO - Free Report) are two prominent independent U.S. refiners, but they differ significantly in scale, operational reach and growth strategies. Marathon Petroleum leverages one of the nation's largest refining systems, an extensive logistics network and strategic investments in higher-value fuel production to drive resilient earnings and margin expansion. HF Sinclair, meanwhile, focuses on optimizing its regional refining footprint through crude flexibility, targeted capacity enhancements and cost-efficiency initiatives. Both companies stand to benefit from favorable refining fundamentals, including steady transportation fuel demand and supportive crack spreads, while navigating industry headwinds such as commodity price volatility, regulatory pressures and maintenance-related disruptions. Comparing their refining strengths, growth initiatives and operational risks provides valuable insight into which stock is better positioned to deliver sustainable long-term shareholder value.
The Case for Marathon Petroleum StockMarathon Petroleum's refining business remains anchored by one of the largest and most sophisticated refining systems in the United States, with nearly 3 million barrels per day of refining capacity spread across the Gulf Coast, Mid-Continent and West Coast. Its integrated network of refineries, pipelines, terminals and barges enables efficient movement of crude oil and intermediate products, allowing the company to maximize utilization and capture higher-margin opportunities across regions. In the first quarter of 2026, the refining segment demonstrated strong operational execution with 89% refinery utilization and an industry-leading 99% margin capture despite completing nearly 40% of its annual turnaround program. These capabilities, combined with disciplined commercial execution and a diversified crude sourcing strategy centered on the United States and Canada, provide resilience against global supply disruptions and support consistent refining profitability.
Marathon Petroleum is well positioned to further strengthen its refining franchise as it is investing in high-return projects that enhance product flexibility and increase exposure to premium transportation fuels. The expansion of jet fuel production capacity at the Garyville refinery, ongoing yield improvement initiatives at El Paso and additional jet fuel flexibility at Robinson position the company to benefit from rising global aviation demand. Its growing international LPG trading business and expanding export capabilities further diversify revenue streams, while integration with MPLX's logistics infrastructure enhances feedstock access, market reach and operational efficiency. These initiatives should improve refining margins and reinforce the company's competitive position over the long term.
However, Marathon Petroleum's refining business remains exposed to volatile crude oil prices, fluctuating crack spreads and changing fuel demand, while refinery turnarounds and unplanned outages can temporarily weigh on throughput and earnings. The company also faces rising regulatory compliance costs tied to emissions and fuel standards, particularly in California. Intense competition, evolving crude differentials and geopolitical uncertainties may further pressure refining margins. To maintain its competitive edge, Marathon Petroleum must continue executing efficiently, sustaining high refinery utilization, controlling costs and generating strong returns from its ongoing capital investments.
The Case for HF Sinclair StockHF Sinclair's refining business is supported by a diversified network of seven complex refineries with a combined crude processing capacity of 678,000 barrels per stream day across key U.S. markets. Its ability to process discounted heavy and sour crude oils into higher-value products such as gasoline, diesel and jet fuel enhances margin potential. An extensive midstream network of pipelines, terminals and storage assets further strengthens feedstock flexibility and distribution efficiency, while geographic proximity to major crude supply hubs such as Cushing, the Permian Basin and Canadian sources provides reliable access to cost-advantaged crude.
The company, at the same time, is taking several strategic initiatives to enhance its refining profitability. Management continues to focus on increasing throughput, enhancing crude optimization and reducing operating costs through targeted capital projects. The El Dorado vacuum furnace project is expected to improve reliability and allow an additional 10,000 barrels per day of heavy crude processing, while the Puget Sound refinery upgrade provides greater flexibility to shift production between diesel and jet fuel depending on market conditions. Strong refining margins, favorable summer fuel demand and the absence of major turnarounds after the third quarter position the company to capture improved market conditions.
Despite these strengths, HF Sinclair's refining business remains exposed to several challenges. Profitability is highly dependent on volatile crude oil prices, crack spreads and refined product demand, making earnings susceptible to unfavorable market swings. Planned refinery turnarounds and unexpected maintenance activities can temporarily reduce throughput and increase operating costs. The business also faces competitive pressure from larger Gulf Coast refiners with lower production costs, while geopolitical conflicts, supply chain disruptions and crude market volatility can affect feedstock availability and pricing. Additionally, increasingly stringent environmental regulations and renewable fuel compliance requirements could raise operating expenses and capital investment needs over time.
Price Performance ComparisonIn the past six months, MPC and DINO have posted nearly identical stock performances, with shares surging 82.4% and 83.5%, respectively.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Valuation ComparisonFrom a valuation perspective — in terms of forward price-to-sales ratio — HF Sinclair is trading at a discount of 0.55X compared with Marathon Petroleum’s 0.68X.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
EPS EstimatesAccording to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, MPC’s earnings are set to rise 234.8% year over year in 2026.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The same for DINO’s 2026 EPS indicates a year-over-year increase of 113.6%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Summing UpBoth Marathon Petroleum and HF Sinclair are well-positioned to benefit from favorable refining fundamentals, supported by resilient fuel demand, healthy crack spreads and ongoing operational improvements.
Marathon Petroleum stands out for its industry-leading scale, integrated logistics network and high refinery utilization. Moreover, its investments in premium fuel production and exports should support long-term growth, supporting its Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
HF Sinclair, however, appears better positioned overall, driven by its sharper focus on margin expansion through crude flexibility, targeted refinery upgrades, disciplined cost optimization and improving throughput. Its ability to process discounted heavy crude, combined with attractive valuation, strategic capital projects and strong earnings leverage to favorable market conditions, provides a compelling risk-reward profile, justifying its Zacks Rank #2 (Buy).
While Marathon offers stability and scale, HF Sinclair's combination of operational catalysts, efficiency initiatives and valuation advantage makes it a more attractive refining investment at current levels.
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Index Dow Jones +0,32 % na 52390,54 b. S&P 500 +0,12 % na 7518,33 b. Nasdaq Composite -0,09 % na 25812,72 b.
Ve středeční seanci se americké indexy ze začátku mírně korigují, protože investoři jsou opatrní před zveřejněním klíčových zpráv o hospodaření společností jako Alphabet a Texas Instruments, které by mohly poskytnout další signály o obchodu s umělou inteligencí. Trhy se také soustřeďují na americko-íránský konflikt, jelikož obě strany pokračovaly ve vzájemných úderech již jedenáctý den po sobě. Začínají tak vznikat opět obavy z narušení dodávek ropy způsobených potenciálně se rozšiřujícím konfliktem na Blízkém východě. Bohužel, diplomatické jednání nepřineslo okamžitý pokrok. Americký prezident Donald Trump v úterý nabídl na nová jednání s představiteli Iránu pesimistický pohled a uvedl, že Washington „nemá zájem se s Íránem zatím setkat“. Dolar na páru s eurem zatím opslabuje o -0,2% tj. 1,1414 USD/EUR.
V hledáčku investorů je stále ropa, která stále roste a dnes WTI přidává 2,4% a dostává se k úrovni 86,4 USD/barel. Jak ropa roste , tak se opět vynořují obavy investorů že energetický šok způsobený válkou by mohl vyvolat globální inflační výbuch a vlnu zvyšování úrokových sazeb centrálních bank. Tyto komentáře přicházejí v době, kdy média naznačují, že se mediátoři nadále snaží oživit diplomatické řešení íránského konfliktu, který nyní hrozí rozšířením do dalších částí Perského zálivu. Dnes byly také zveřejněny zásoby surové ropy a podle EIA zásoby vzrostly o 2,010 mil. barelů, když trh předpokládal pokles o 1,950 mil. barelů. Tato situace vyhovuje akciím v těžebním sektoru černého zlata a tak akcie těžebního obra Exxon Mobil ( XOM ) přidávají 1,5% a hned v závěsu jsou akcie konkurenta Baker Hughes ( BKR ), jež se posunují výš na tržní ceně více než 1%. Podobně si vedou také akcie Marathonu Petroleum ( MPC ) se ziskem více než 1% a také akcie britské skupiny BP ( BP ) se posouvají výš o více než 1,5%. Solidně si vedou také akcie APA ( APA ), které se přehouply přes 1% a také konkurenční akcie Occidentalu Petroleum ( OXY ) na tržní ceně přidávají cca 1,5%. Velmi slušně si vedou také akcie brazilského těžaře Petrobrasu ( PBR ), jež se pohybují v kladném se ziskem 2,5%. Dnes přidávají na tržní ceně také akcie francouzského výrobce a dodavatele těžní techniky Schlumbergeru ( SLB ) o více než 2% a také akcie amerického konkurenta Halliburtonu ( HAL ) 0,6% a do této skupiny patří také akcie Chevronu ( CVX ), které přidávají cca 1%.
S oslabením dolaru si dnes dobře vede žlutý kov, který přidává 1,4% a zlato se tak dostává l úrovni 4 138 USD/Troy. unci. Tato situace je tak příznivě nakloněna akciím v těžebním sektoru zlata a tak akcie největšího kanadského těžaře Barrick Mining ( B ) dnes zpevňují o 3,9% a hned v závěsu jsou akcie jeho amerického konkurenta Newmontu ( NEM ) s ještě větším ziskem cca 4,5%. Za zmínku stojí také akcie známého těžaře Eldorado Gold ( EGO ), jež se posunují výš o 6,7%.
Za pozornost investorů stojí dnes tabáková skupina Philip Morris ( PM ) vykázala zisk za druhé čtvrtletí, který překonal odhady díky robustním tržbám poháněným poptávkou po jejím nekuřáckém produktu. Náladu však utlumilo určité zklamání z jejího ročního výhledu. Tržby společnosti meziročně vzrostly o 10,4 % na 11,19 mld. USD. Organické tržby byly meziročně vyšší o 7,6 %, zatímco trh očekával růst pouze o 4,91 %. Philip Morris celkově dodal 205,2 mld. jednotek produktů, což představuje meziroční růst o 2,5 %. Zisk na akcii meziročně klesl o 7,7 % na 1,80 USD, a to vlivem nepeněžního odpisu podílu v kanadské RBH ve výši 511 mil. USD (dopad 0,33 USD na akcii). Očištěný zisk na akcii naopak vzrostl o 15,2 % na 2,20 USD (bez měnového vlivu +13,6 %) a překonal očekávání trhu ve výši 2,04 USD. I když výhled byl opatrný, tak investoři pozitivně vnímají reportovaná čísla a akcie Philip Morris ( PM ) posilují na tržní ceně o více než 1,9%.
Své výsledky za 2Q. 2026 dnes představila také telekomunikační společnost AT&T ( T ) Čistý přírůstek postpaid mobilních zákazníků překonal průměrný odhad analytiků. Nad očekávání byl rovněž reportován očištěný zisk na akcii a očištěný zisk EBITDA. Akcie AT &T ( T ) se tak dnes těší z přízně investorů a posilují o cca 3,2%.
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Luboš Bedrník
Fio banka, a.s.
Prohlášení
SummaryCooling inflation and resilient consumer spending have eased economic concerns, shifting Wall Street's focus squarely to earnings.Big Tech results, beginning on July 22 after the bell, offer fresh insight into AI spending trends and corporate profitability.Rising oil prices and Middle East tensions remain key risks that could challenge the disinflation narrative. Urupong/iStock via Getty Images
It's difficult to call any stretch a calm, quiet summer week, but this one would seemingly fit the bill. Earnings from Alphabet (GOOGL), Tesla (TSLA), and IBM (IBM) are the
Marathon Petroleum (MPC - Free Report) ended the recent trading session at $319.76, demonstrating a +1.41% change from the preceding day's closing price. The stock outperformed the S&P 500, which registered a daily gain of 0.89%. Meanwhile, the Dow experienced a rise of 0.74%, and the technology-dominated Nasdaq saw an increase of 1.29%.
The stock of refiner has risen by 27.51% in the past month, leading the Oils-Energy sector's gain of 4.15% and the S&P 500's loss of 0.63%.
Market participants will be closely following the financial results of Marathon Petroleum in its upcoming release. The company plans to announce its earnings on August 4, 2026. It is anticipated that the company will report an EPS of $14.67, marking a 270.45% rise compared to the same quarter of the previous year. Meanwhile, our latest consensus estimate is calling for revenue of $34.83 billion, up 2.14% from the prior-year quarter.
For the full year, the Zacks Consensus Estimates project earnings of $35.82 per share and a revenue of $144.74 billion, demonstrating changes of +234.77% and +7.04%, respectively, from the preceding year.
It's also important for investors to be aware of any recent modifications to analyst estimates for Marathon Petroleum. These revisions help to show the ever-changing nature of near-term business trends. Consequently, upward revisions in estimates express analysts' positivity towards the business operations and its ability to generate profits.
Empirical research indicates that these revisions in estimates have a direct correlation with impending stock price performance. We developed the Zacks Rank to capitalize on this phenomenon. Our system takes these estimate changes into account and delivers a clear, actionable rating model.
Ranging from #1 (Strong Buy) to #5 (Strong Sell), the Zacks Rank system has a proven, outside-audited track record of outperformance, with #1 stocks returning an average of +25% annually since 1988. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate has witnessed a 14.27% increase. Marathon Petroleum is currently sporting a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold).
Looking at valuation, Marathon Petroleum is presently trading at a Forward P/E ratio of 8.8. This represents a discount compared to its industry average Forward P/E of 9.61.
We can also see that MPC currently has a PEG ratio of 0.42. Comparable to the widely accepted P/E ratio, the PEG ratio also accounts for the company's projected earnings growth. The average PEG ratio for the Oil and Gas - Refining and Marketing industry stood at 0.38 at the close of the market yesterday.
The Oil and Gas - Refining and Marketing industry is part of the Oils-Energy sector. This industry, currently bearing a Zacks Industry Rank of 40, finds itself in the top 17% echelons of all 250+ industries.
The Zacks Industry Rank assesses the vigor of our specific industry groups by computing the average Zacks Rank of the individual stocks incorporated in the groups. Our research shows that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1.
Keep in mind to rely on Zacks.com to watch all these stock-impacting metrics, and more, in the succeeding trading sessions.
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The research service features daily updates of the Zacks Rank and Zacks Industry Rank, full access to the Zacks #1 Rank List, Equity Research reports, and Premium stock screens, all of which will help you become a smarter, more confident investor.
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What are the Zacks Style Scores? The Zacks Style Scores is a unique set of guidelines that rates stocks based on three popular investing types, and were developed as complementary indicators for the Zacks Rank. This combination helps investors choose securities with the highest chances of beating the market over the next 30 days.
Each stock is given an alphabetic rating of A, B, C, D or F based on their value, growth, and momentum qualities. With this system, an A is better than a B, a B is better than a C, and so on, meaning the better the score, the better chance the stock will outperform.
The Style Scores are broken down into four categories:
Value ScoreValue investors love finding good stocks at good prices, especially before the broader market catches on to a stock's true value. Utilizing ratios like P/E, PEG, Price/Sales, Price/Cash Flow, and many other multiples, the Value Style Score identifies the most attractive and most discounted stocks.
Growth ScoreWhile good value is important, growth investors are more focused on a company's financial strength and health, and its future outlook. The Growth Style Score takes projected and historic earnings, sales, and cash flow into account to uncover stocks that will see long-term, sustainable growth.
Momentum ScoreMomentum trading is all about taking advantage of upward or downward trends in a stock's price or earnings outlook, and these investors live by the saying "the trend is your friend." The Momentum Style Score can pinpoint good times to build a position in a stock, using factors like one-week price change and the monthly percentage change in earnings estimates.
VGM ScoreIf you like to use all three kinds of investing, then the VGM Score is for you. It's a combination of all Style Scores, and is an important indicator to use with the Zacks Rank. The VGM Score rates each stock on their shared weighted styles, narrowing down the companies with the most attractive value, best growth forecast, and most promising momentum.
How Style Scores Work with the Zacks Rank The Zacks Rank, which is a proprietary stock-rating model, employs earnings estimate revisions, or changes to a company's earnings expectations, to make building a winning portfolio easier.
It's highly successful, with #1 (Strong Buy) stocks producing an unmatched +23.94% average annual return since 1988. That's more than double the S&P 500. But because of the large number of stocks we rate, there are over 200 companies with a Strong Buy rank, plus another 600 with a #2 (Buy) rank, on any given day.
This totals more than 800 top-rated stocks, and it can be overwhelming to try and pick the best stocks for you and your portfolio.
That's where the Style Scores come in.
You want to make sure you're buying stocks with the highest likelihood of success, and to do that, you'll need to pick stocks with a Zacks Rank #1 or #2 that also have Style Scores of A or B. If you like a stock that only has a #3 (Hold) rank, it should also have Scores of A or B to guarantee as much upside potential as possible.
Since the Scores were created to work together with the Zacks Rank, the direction of a stock's earnings estimate revisions should be a key factor when choosing which stocks to buy.
Here's an example: a stock with a #4 (Sell) or #5 (Strong Sell) rating, even one with Style Scores of A and B, still has a downward-trending earnings outlook, and a bigger chance its share price will decrease too.
Thus, the more stocks you own with a #1 or #2 Rank and Scores of A or B, the better.
Stock to Watch: Marathon Petroleum (MPC - Free Report) Findlay, OH-based Marathon Petroleum Corporation is a leading independent refiner, transporter and marketer of petroleum products. The company, in its current form, came into existence following the 2011 spin-off of Houston, TX-based Marathon Oil Corporation’s refining/sales business into a separate, independent and publicly-traded entity. In October 2018, Marathon Oil completed the acquisition of its rival Andeavor in a $23.3 billion deal, thereby becoming the nationwide largest refining company by market capitalization. The deal also made the company the largest U.S. refiner and the fifth largest in the world by capacity.
MPC is a #3 (Hold) on the Zacks Rank, with a VGM Score of A.
Momentum investors should take note of this Oils-Energy stock. MPC has a Momentum Style Score of A, and shares are up 22.3% over the past four weeks.
For fiscal 2026, five analysts revised their earnings estimate upwards in the last 60 days, and the Zacks Consensus Estimate has increased $6.15 to $35.82 per share. MPC boasts an average earnings surprise of +49.5%.
With a solid Zacks Rank and top-tier Momentum and VGM Style Scores, MPC should be on investors' short list.
Key Takeaways Marathon Petroleum posted $1.4B Refining & Marketing adjusted EBITDA in Q1 2026.MPC achieved 99% refining margin capture despite completing nearly 40% of planned annual maintenance.MPC benefits from domestic crude sourcing, logistics flexibility and higher-margin jet fuel projects. The current refining market remains highly supportive for U.S. refiners, and Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC - Free Report) is emerging as a clear beneficiary. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have disrupted global fuel supply, while strong demand for gasoline, diesel and jet fuel has kept crack spreads elevated. At the same time, constrained global refining capacity and robust export demand continue to create a favorable pricing environment, allowing efficient refiners to capture stronger margins.
Marathon Petroleum is among the biggest beneficiaries of these conditions. During the first quarter of 2026, the company generated $1.4 billion in Refining & Marketing adjusted EBITDA, with refining margin capture reaching 99% despite completing nearly 40% of its planned annual maintenance. Its refineries operated at 89% utilization, reflecting disciplined operations and strong commercial execution.
The company's advantage extends beyond favorable industry conditions. Marathon Petroleum sources most of its crude from the United States and Canada, reducing exposure to global supply disruptions while enabling it to capitalize on attractive domestic feedstock economics. Its integrated logistics network also allows rapid adjustments in crude sourcing, product yields and exports, helping maximize profitability as market conditions evolve.
Strategic investments further strengthen this position. The recently completed Garyville jet fuel expansion and upcoming yield-improvement projects increase exposure to higher-margin products, particularly jet fuel and diesel, where demand remains healthy. Combined with strong planning, operational reliability and commercial optimization, these initiatives position Marathon Petroleum to sustain superior refining margins even as market volatility persists.
Other Energy Players Benefiting From Current Refining MarginsValero Energy Corporation (VLO - Free Report) is among the largest independent refiners in the United States, with a combined high-complexity throughput capacity of nearly 3 million barrels per day across its refineries. VLO's refining footprint is heavily concentrated along the U.S. Gulf Coast and the Midcontinent, offering feedstock sourcing flexibility, with management emphasizing that crude availability is not a significant constraint for the company. Moreover, its Gulf Coast access enables it to sell refined products in high-demand markets and capitalize on the current increase in export demand for distillates driven by the supply disruptions in the Middle East. This positions Valero to benefit from elevated refining margins and strong international demand for refined products.
Phillips 66 (PSX - Free Report) is well positioned to benefit from the current refining environment through its diversified refining, midstream and chemicals operations. Management expects supply disruptions in the Middle East, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, to keep refined product markets tight, boosting margins for U.S. refiners. Strong demand for jet fuel and declining product inventories are also supporting favorable refining fundamentals. Additionally, Phillips 66 remains largely shielded from Middle East crude supply risks, as most of its feedstock comes from Canada, the United States and Latin America, allowing it to maintain high refinery utilization and capitalize on stronger margins.
The Zacks Rundown on Marathon PetroleumShares of Marathon Petroleum displayed a staggering rally of 72.7% in the past six months, compared with the Oil/Energy sector’s gain of 17.2%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
From a valuation perspective — in terms of forward price-to-sales ratio — MPC is trading at a discount of 0.64X compared with the industry average of 1.34X.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MPC’s 2026 earnings is pegged at $33 per share, indicating 208.4% year-over-year growth.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The stock currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
In the latest close session, Marathon Petroleum (MPC - Free Report) was up +2.2% at $303.40. This change outpaced the S&P 500's 0.38% gain on the day. Meanwhile, the Dow gained 0.02%, and the Nasdaq, a tech-heavy index, added 0.9%.
The refiner's stock has climbed by 18.34% in the past month, exceeding the Oils-Energy sector's loss of 1.55% and the S&P 500's gain of 1.27%.
The investment community will be closely monitoring the performance of Marathon Petroleum in its forthcoming earnings report. The company is scheduled to release its earnings on August 4, 2026. On that day, Marathon Petroleum is projected to report earnings of $13.26 per share, which would represent year-over-year growth of 234.85%. Simultaneously, our latest consensus estimate expects the revenue to be $34.83 billion, showing a 2.14% escalation compared to the year-ago quarter.
For the full year, the Zacks Consensus Estimates are projecting earnings of $33 per share and revenue of $144.77 billion, which would represent changes of +208.41% and +7.06%, respectively, from the prior year.
Investors might also notice recent changes to analyst estimates for Marathon Petroleum. Such recent modifications usually signify the changing landscape of near-term business trends. With this in mind, we can consider positive estimate revisions a sign of optimism about the business outlook.
Research indicates that these estimate revisions are directly correlated with near-term share price momentum. To utilize this, we have created the Zacks Rank, a proprietary model that integrates these estimate changes and provides a functional rating system.
The Zacks Rank system, spanning from #1 (Strong Buy) to #5 (Strong Sell), boasts an impressive track record of outperformance, audited externally, with #1 ranked stocks yielding an average annual return of +25% since 1988. Within the past 30 days, our consensus EPS projection has moved 2.59% higher. Marathon Petroleum presently features a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold).
In terms of valuation, Marathon Petroleum is currently trading at a Forward P/E ratio of 9. This valuation marks a discount compared to its industry average Forward P/E of 9.53.
Investors should also note that MPC has a PEG ratio of 0.43 right now. Comparable to the widely accepted P/E ratio, the PEG ratio also accounts for the company's projected earnings growth. The Oil and Gas - Refining and Marketing was holding an average PEG ratio of 0.37 at yesterday's closing price.
The Oil and Gas - Refining and Marketing industry is part of the Oils-Energy sector. Currently, this industry holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 45, positioning it in the top 19% of all 250+ industries.
The Zacks Industry Rank evaluates the power of our distinct industry groups by determining the average Zacks Rank of the individual stocks forming the groups. Our research shows that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1.
Be sure to use Zacks.com to monitor all these stock-influencing metrics, and more, throughout the forthcoming trading sessions.
BP and Shell shares have staged a strong comeback this week, helped by rising crude oil prices. BP jumped to 505p, its highest point since June 22, and 12.2% above its lowest level this year.
Similarly, Shell stock pumped to 3,109p, up by 8.6% from its lowest point this month. Other energy stocks like Chevron, ExxonMobil, and Marathon Petroleum also bounced back, with the Vanguard Energy ETF (VDE) soared to $161.5, its highest level since June 12. It has rebounded by almost 9% from its lowest level this year.
Shell, BP, and VDE ETF stocks | Source: TradingView
BP and Shell shares have bounced back this week, helped by the resumption of the US-Iran war. In a statement on Monday, Trump said that the US would resume its blockade against Iranian ports, and that the military would escort ships and charge a fee. Such a move will be difficult to execute because of Iran’s capabilities in the region.
The two sides have continued fighting this week, a situation that may escalate in the coming weeks, which explains why oil prices have soared. Brent, the global benchmark, has soared by 20% from its lowest level this month, and is now hovering at its highest point since June 15. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) has also risen by nearly 20% from the YTD low.
Soaring oil prices will be bullish for energy stocks, which have been under pressure in the past few weeks since the US-Iran ceasefire started. Shell dropped from 3,308p in June to 2,865p on July 2. BP also slipped to 450p, its lowest level since February 11.
Energy stocks jumped as the US-Iran war started a few months ago, with oil and gas prices soaring. In a recent note, Shell said that output from its integrated gas division would be between 610,000 and 650,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (bped) in the second quarter, higher than the previous guidance of between 580,000 to 640,000. Shell will release its final Q2 numbers on July 29.
Other energy companies have reported strong numbers, with ExxonMobil saying that its second-quarter earnings will see a $5 billion boost compared to the first quarter. BP is also expected to have benefited as oil prices soared.
Looking ahead, the main catalyst for these stocks is how the US-Iran crisis evolves. Signs that it will escalate further will boost their shares as oil prices will soar. Besides, this is happening at a time when inventories are at dangerously low. In a statement in May, a top Exxon executive said:
“We’re approaching unheard of inventory levels. You can debate whether that’s going to hit, those really low levels, in two weeks or three weeks. Once you get to that point, then you’ll see price shoot up.”
He explained that Brent and WTI could surge to between $150 and $160 if inventories continue falling. Worse, an escalation could see the US and Iran start shooting at energy infrastructure in the region, which will take a longer time to recover when the war ends.
It doesn't matter your age or experience: taking full advantage of the stock market and investing with confidence are common goals for all investors. Luckily, Zacks Premium offers several different ways to do both.
The popular research service can help you become a smarter, more self-assured investor, giving you access to daily updates of the Zacks Rank and Zacks Industry Rank, the Zacks #1 Rank List, Equity Research reports, and Premium stock screens.
It also includes access to the Zacks Style Scores.
What are the Zacks Style Scores? The Zacks Style Scores is a unique set of guidelines that rates stocks based on three popular investing types, and were developed as complementary indicators for the Zacks Rank. This combination helps investors choose securities with the highest chances of beating the market over the next 30 days.
Each stock is given an alphabetic rating of A, B, C, D or F based on their value, growth, and momentum qualities. With this system, an A is better than a B, a B is better than a C, and so on, meaning the better the score, the better chance the stock will outperform.
The Style Scores are broken down into four categories:
Value ScoreFor value investors, it's all about finding good stocks at good prices, and discovering which companies are trading under their true value before the broader market catches on. The Value Style Score utilizes ratios like P/E, PEG, Price/Sales, Price/Cash Flow, and a host of other multiples to help pick out the most attractive and discounted stocks.
Growth ScoreGrowth investors are more concerned with a stock's future prospects, and the overall financial health and strength of a company. Thus, the Growth Style Score analyzes characteristics like projected and historic earnings, sales, and cash flow to find stocks that will see sustainable growth over time.
Momentum ScoreMomentum trading is all about taking advantage of upward or downward trends in a stock's price or earnings outlook, and these investors live by the saying "the trend is your friend." The Momentum Style Score can pinpoint good times to build a position in a stock, using factors like one-week price change and the monthly percentage change in earnings estimates.
VGM ScoreWhat if you like to use all three types of investing? The VGM Score is a combination of all Style Scores, making it one of the most comprehensive indicators to use with the Zacks Rank. It rates each stock on their combined weighted styles, which helps narrow down the companies with the most attractive value, best growth forecast, and most promising momentum.
How Style Scores Work with the Zacks Rank The Zacks Rank is a proprietary stock-rating model that harnesses the power of earnings estimate revisions, or changes to a company's earnings expectations, to help investors build a successful portfolio.
Investors can count on the Zacks Rank's success, with #1 (Strong Buy) stocks producing an unmatched +23.94% average annual return since 1988, more than double the S&P 500's performance. But the model rates a large number of stocks, and there are over 200 companies with a Strong Buy rank, plus another 600 with a #2 (Buy) rank, on any given day.
This totals more than 800 top-rated stocks, and it can be overwhelming to try and pick the best stocks for you and your portfolio.
That's where the Style Scores come in.
You want to make sure you're buying stocks with the highest likelihood of success, and to do that, you'll need to pick stocks with a Zacks Rank #1 or #2 that also have Style Scores of A or B. If you like a stock that only has a #3 (Hold) rank, it should also have Scores of A or B to guarantee as much upside potential as possible.
As mentioned above, the Scores are designed to work with the Zacks Rank, so any change to a company's earnings outlook should be a deciding factor when picking which stocks to buy.
Here's an example: a stock with a #4 (Sell) or #5 (Strong Sell) rating, even one with Style Scores of A and B, still has a downward-trending earnings outlook, and a bigger chance its share price will decrease too.
Thus, the more stocks you own with a #1 or #2 Rank and Scores of A or B, the better.
Stock to Watch: Marathon Petroleum (MPC - Free Report) Findlay, OH-based Marathon Petroleum Corporation is a leading independent refiner, transporter and marketer of petroleum products. The company, in its current form, came into existence following the 2011 spin-off of Houston, TX-based Marathon Oil Corporation’s refining/sales business into a separate, independent and publicly-traded entity. In October 2018, Marathon Oil completed the acquisition of its rival Andeavor in a $23.3 billion deal, thereby becoming the nationwide largest refining company by market capitalization. The deal also made the company the largest U.S. refiner and the fifth largest in the world by capacity.
MPC is a #3 (Hold) on the Zacks Rank, with a VGM Score of A.
It also boasts a Value Style Score of A thanks to attractive valuation metrics like a forward P/E ratio of 8.6; value investors should take notice.
Four analysts revised their earnings estimate higher in the last 60 days for fiscal 2026, while the Zacks Consensus Estimate has increased $4.13 to $32.96 per share. MPC also boasts an average earnings surprise of +49.5%.
With a solid Zacks Rank and top-tier Value and VGM Style Scores, MPC should be on investors' short list.
Marathon Petroleum remains a top "Buy" as global refining disruptions, especially in Russia, extend the duration of elevated crack spreads. Recent Ukrainian strikes have sidelined up to a third of Russian refining capacity, supporting crack spreads at $45+ for at least 15 months. MPC is poised for ~$70/share in excess cash flow by Q3 2027, enabling aggressive buybacks and at least 10% share retirement over the next year.
Key Takeaways Marathon Petroleum gained about 52% in six months, driven by strong refining execution and operations.MPC posted 89% refinery utilization, a 99% capture rate and advanced projects to boost higher-margin output.MPC's 2026 EPS estimate rose 9.7% in 30 days, but cyclical margins and high maintenance remain risks. Shares of Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC - Free Report) have climbed 52.3% over the past six months, outperforming the Oil & Gas Refining and Marketing sub-industry’s gain of 29.9% and the broader oil and energy sector's modest rise of 14.7%.
Peer comparison further highlights the strength, as Marathon Petroleum outperformed its peers, Valero Energy Corporation (VLO - Free Report) and Phillips 66 (PSX - Free Report) , which gained 48.3% and 26%, respectively, during the same time period.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Marathon Petroleum stands to benefit from the recent soft oil price environment, which can support refining margins and profitability. However, after such a sharp rally, investors are left wondering whether the stock still offers meaningful upside or if much of the optimism has already been priced in. While Marathon Petroleum's operational strengths remain intact, a closer assessment of its valuation, earnings outlook and growth catalysts is essential to determine whether the stock remains a compelling buy at current levels.
Factors Favoring Marathon Petroleum StockOperational Excellence Is Driving Higher Refining Profitability: Marathon Petroleum continues to distinguish itself through industry-leading operational execution. During the first quarter, its refineries achieved 89% utilization while delivering an impressive 99% capture rate, meaning the company converted nearly all available market refining margins into realized profits. Management highlighted that the quarter recorded the lowest level of unplanned downtime in MPC's decade despite completing a significant portion of scheduled maintenance. Additionally, strategic investments such as the new jet fuel capacity at the Garyville refinery and upcoming projects at El Paso and Robinson are expected to increase production of higher-margin refined products. These investments improve product flexibility and position the company to capitalize on growing demand for jet fuel and diesel. Strong operational reliability, disciplined maintenance planning and superior commercial execution together create a competitive advantage that can sustain profitability even as market conditions fluctuate.
2026 Earnings Estimates Look Compelling: The Zacks Consensus Estimate implies a 208% year-over-year rise in MPC’s 2026 earnings per share, signaling a shift to positive earnings growth. This anticipated growth resembles the optimism embedded in the stock’s current price. Just like MPC, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2026 earnings per share of peer companies — Valero Energyand Phillips 66 — also implies a positive year-over-year earnings growth of 167.4% and 199%, respectively.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
MPC’s Improving Estimate Revisions: Over the past 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for MPC’s earnings per share has been revised 9.7% higher for 2026. However, the estimates for VLO and PSX have been revised by only 7% and 5.5%, respectively, over the same period.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Challenges That Pressure Marathon Petroleum StockEarnings Sensitivity to Refining Margins and Market Cyclicality: Marathon Petroleum remains heavily dependent on refining operations, making its earnings sensitive to refining margins and fuel demand. First-quarter results benefited from geopolitical conditions that tightened global fuel supplies and boosted crack spreads. If global refining capacity returns, crude supply disruptions ease, or fuel demand weakens, refining margins could normalize and reduce earnings and cash flow. Because refining is inherently cyclical, current profitability may represent a strong point in the cycle rather than a sustainable long-term earnings level. This cyclicality can lead to significant volatility in both financial performance and Marathon Petroleum’s share price.
Large Maintenance Requirements Could Pressure Returns: Operating one of the largest refining systems in the United States requires significant ongoing spending on maintenance, reliability and regulatory compliance. In the first quarter, Marathon Petroleum incurred about $530 million in refinery turnaround costs and completed nearly 40% of its planned annual maintenance, while maintaining full-year turnaround spending guidance of $1.35 billion. The company is also investing heavily in refinery upgrades, jet fuel optimization projects and MPLX expansion. While these investments are expected to boost long-term growth, they require substantial capital and carry execution risks, potentially pressuring free cash flow if market conditions weaken.
MPC’s Valuation: Based on the forward price-to-sales ratio, Marathon Petroleum appears attractively valued relative to Valero Energy but trades at a premium compared with Phillips 66, which could prompt investors to exercise caution before investing.
Valuation Comparison
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Final Verdict on MPC StockThis Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) company is benefiting from industry-leading refinery execution, improving earnings estimates and strategic investments that should support higher-margin production and long-term profitability. Favorable refining conditions and stronger estimate revisions compared with peers also reinforce its investment case.
However, much of this optimism appears to be reflected in the stock price following its sharp rally over the past six months. Marathon Petroleum's earnings remain highly exposed to cyclical refining margins, while elevated maintenance spending and ongoing capital investments could pressure cash flows if market conditions soften.
In this context, investors should consider adopting a hold strategy for now to monitor Marathon Petroleum’s ongoing strengths while waiting for clearer earnings visibility and avoiding a premature exit before its initiatives potentially translate into shareholder value.
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Marathon Petroleum (MPC - Free Report) has recently been on Zacks.com's list of the most searched stocks. Therefore, you might want to consider some of the key factors that could influence the stock's performance in the near future.
Shares of this refiner have returned +1.7% over the past month versus the Zacks S&P 500 composite's -0.9% change. The Zacks Oil and Gas - Refining and Marketing industry, to which Marathon Petroleum belongs, has lost 8.3% over this period. Now the key question is: Where could the stock be headed in the near term?
While media releases or rumors about a substantial change in a company's business prospects usually make its stock 'trending' and lead to an immediate price change, there are always some fundamental facts that eventually dominate the buy-and-hold decision-making.
Earnings Estimate RevisionsHere at Zacks, we prioritize appraising the change in the projection of a company's future earnings over anything else. That's because we believe the present value of its future stream of earnings is what determines the fair value for its stock.
Our analysis is essentially based on how sell-side analysts covering the stock are revising their earnings estimates to take the latest business trends into account. When earnings estimates for a company go up, the fair value for its stock goes up as well. And when a stock's fair value is higher than its current market price, investors tend to buy the stock, resulting in its price moving upward. Because of this, empirical studies indicate a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and short-term stock price movements.
Marathon Petroleum is expected to post earnings of $13.11 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +231.1%. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed +30.6%.
For the current fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of $32.96 points to a change of +208% from the prior year. Over the last 30 days, this estimate has changed +9.7%.
For the next fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of $25.76 indicates a change of -21.8% from what Marathon Petroleum is expected to report a year ago. Over the past month, the estimate has changed -3%.
With an impressive externally audited track record, our proprietary stock rating tool -- the Zacks Rank -- is a more conclusive indicator of a stock's near-term price performance, as it effectively harnesses the power of earnings estimate revisions. The size of the recent change in the consensus estimate, along with three other factors related to earnings estimates, has resulted in a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for Marathon Petroleum.
The chart below shows the evolution of the company's forward 12-month consensus EPS estimate:
12 Month EPS
Revenue Growth ForecastWhile earnings growth is arguably the most superior indicator of a company's financial health, nothing happens as such if a business isn't able to grow its revenues. After all, it's nearly impossible for a company to increase its earnings for an extended period without increasing its revenues. So, it's important to know a company's potential revenue growth.
In the case of Marathon Petroleum, the consensus sales estimate of $34.87 billion for the current quarter points to a year-over-year change of +2.2%. The $144.77 billion and $131.44 billion estimates for the current and next fiscal years indicate changes of +7.1% and -9.2%, respectively.
Last Reported Results and Surprise HistoryMarathon Petroleum reported revenues of $34.57 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +8.5%. EPS of $1.65 for the same period compares with -$0.24 a year ago.
Compared to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $30.35 billion, the reported revenues represent a surprise of +13.88%. The EPS surprise was +129.17%.
Over the last four quarters, Marathon Petroleum surpassed consensus EPS estimates three times. The company topped consensus revenue estimates each time over this period.
ValuationWithout considering a stock's valuation, no investment decision can be efficient. In predicting a stock's future price performance, it's crucial to determine whether its current price correctly reflects the intrinsic value of the underlying business and the company's growth prospects.
While comparing the current values of a company's valuation multiples, such as price-to-earnings (P/E), price-to-sales (P/S), and price-to-cash flow (P/CF), with its own historical values helps determine whether its stock is fairly valued, overvalued, or undervalued, comparing the company relative to its peers on these parameters gives a good sense of the reasonability of the stock's price.
As part of the Zacks Style Scores system, the Zacks Value Style Score (which evaluates both traditional and unconventional valuation metrics) organizes stocks into five groups ranging from A to F (A is better than B; B is better than C; and so on), making it helpful in identifying whether a stock is overvalued, rightly valued, or temporarily undervalued.
Marathon Petroleum is graded A on this front, indicating that it is trading at a discount to its peers. Click here to see the values of some of the valuation metrics that have driven this grade.
ConclusionThe facts discussed here and much other information on Zacks.com might help determine whether or not it's worthwhile paying attention to the market buzz about Marathon Petroleum. However, its Zacks Rank #3 does suggest that it may perform in line with the broader market in the near term.
Taking full advantage of the stock market and investing with confidence are common goals for new and old investors, and Zacks Premium offers many different ways to do both.
Featuring daily updates of the Zacks Rank and Zacks Industry Rank, full access to the Zacks #1 Rank List, Equity Research reports, and Premium stock screens, the research service can help you become a smarter, more self-assured investor.
Zacks Premium includes access to the Zacks Style Scores as well.
What are the Zacks Style Scores? The Zacks Style Scores, developed alongside the Zacks Rank, are complementary indicators that rate stocks based on three widely-followed investing methodologies; they also help investors pick stocks with the best chances of beating the market over the next 30 days.
Each stock is assigned a rating of A, B, C, D, or F based on their value, growth, and momentum characteristics. Just like in school, an A is better than a B, a B is better than a C, and so on -- that means the better the score, the better chance the stock will outperform.
The Style Scores are broken down into four categories:
Value ScoreValue investors love finding good stocks at good prices, especially before the broader market catches on to a stock's true value. Utilizing ratios like P/E, PEG, Price/Sales, Price/Cash Flow, and many other multiples, the Value Style Score identifies the most attractive and most discounted stocks.
Growth ScoreGrowth investors are more concerned with a stock's future prospects, and the overall financial health and strength of a company. Thus, the Growth Style Score analyzes characteristics like projected and historic earnings, sales, and cash flow to find stocks that will see sustainable growth over time.
Momentum ScoreMomentum investors, who live by the saying "the trend is your friend," are most interested in taking advantage of upward or downward trends in a stock's price or earnings outlook. Utilizing one-week price change and the monthly percentage change in earnings estimates, among other factors, the Momentum Style Score can help determine favorable times to buy high-momentum stocks.
VGM ScoreIf you want a combination of all three Style Scores, then the VGM Score will be your friend. It rates each stock on their combined weighted styles, helping you find the companies with the most attractive value, best growth forecast, and most promising momentum. It's also one of the best indicators to use with the Zacks Rank.
How Style Scores Work with the Zacks Rank The Zacks Rank, which is a proprietary stock-rating model, employs earnings estimate revisions, or changes to a company's earnings expectations, to make building a winning portfolio easier.
It's highly successful, with #1 (Strong Buy) stocks producing an unmatched +23.94% average annual return since 1988. That's more than double the S&P 500. But because of the large number of stocks we rate, there are over 200 companies with a Strong Buy rank, plus another 600 with a #2 (Buy) rank, on any given day.
With more than 800 top-rated stocks to choose from, it can certainly feel overwhelming to pick the ones that are right for you and your investing journey.
That's where the Style Scores come in.
To have the best chance of big returns, you'll want to always consider stocks with a Zacks Rank #1 or #2 that also have Style Scores of A or B, which will give you the highest probability of success. If you're looking at stocks with a #3 (Hold) rank, it's important they have Scores of A or B as well to ensure as much upside potential as possible.
The direction of a stock's earnings estimate revisions should always be a key factor when choosing which stocks to buy, since the Scores were created to work together with the Zacks Rank.
A stock with a #4 (Sell) or #5 (Strong Sell) rating, for instance, even one with Scores of A and B, will still have a declining earnings forecast, and a greater chance its share price will fall too.
Thus, the more stocks you own with a #1 or #2 Rank and Scores of A or B, the better.
Stock to Watch: Marathon Petroleum (MPC - Free Report) Findlay, OH-based Marathon Petroleum Corporation is a leading independent refiner, transporter and marketer of petroleum products. The company, in its current form, came into existence following the 2011 spin-off of Houston, TX-based Marathon Oil Corporation’s refining/sales business into a separate, independent and publicly-traded entity. In October 2018, Marathon Oil completed the acquisition of its rival Andeavor in a $23.3 billion deal, thereby becoming the nationwide largest refining company by market capitalization. The deal also made the company the largest U.S. refiner and the fifth largest in the world by capacity.
MPC is a #3 (Hold) on the Zacks Rank, with a VGM Score of A.
Momentum investors should take note of this Oils-Energy stock. MPC has a Momentum Style Score of A, and shares are up 0.2% over the past four weeks.
For fiscal 2026, six analysts revised their earnings estimate upwards in the last 60 days, and the Zacks Consensus Estimate has increased $5.05 to $31.35 per share. MPC boasts an average earnings surprise of +49.5%.
With a solid Zacks Rank and top-tier Momentum and VGM Style Scores, MPC should be on investors' short list.
In the latest close session, Marathon Petroleum (MPC - Free Report) was up +2.86% at $253.56. The stock exceeded the S&P 500, which registered a loss of 0.01% for the day. Elsewhere, the Dow saw an upswing of 0.14%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq depreciated by 0.46%.
Shares of the refiner witnessed a loss of 0.22% over the previous month, beating the performance of the Oils-Energy sector with its loss of 9.23%, and the S&P 500's loss of 1.4%.
Investors will be eagerly watching for the performance of Marathon Petroleum in its upcoming earnings disclosure. The company's earnings report is set to be unveiled on August 4, 2026. It is anticipated that the company will report an EPS of $13.11, marking a 231.06% rise compared to the same quarter of the previous year. Meanwhile, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenue is projecting net sales of $34.87 billion, up 2.24% from the year-ago period.
For the full year, the Zacks Consensus Estimates project earnings of $31.35 per share and a revenue of $144.77 billion, demonstrating changes of +192.99% and +7.06%, respectively, from the preceding year.
It is also important to note the recent changes to analyst estimates for Marathon Petroleum. These revisions typically reflect the latest short-term business trends, which can change frequently. As such, positive estimate revisions reflect analyst optimism about the business and profitability.
Empirical research indicates that these revisions in estimates have a direct correlation with impending stock price performance. Investors can capitalize on this by using the Zacks Rank. This model considers these estimate changes and provides a simple, actionable rating system.
The Zacks Rank system ranges from #1 (Strong Buy) to #5 (Strong Sell). It has a remarkable, outside-audited track record of success, with #1 stocks delivering an average annual return of +25% since 1988. The Zacks Consensus EPS estimate has moved 4.33% higher within the past month. At present, Marathon Petroleum boasts a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold).
Looking at valuation, Marathon Petroleum is presently trading at a Forward P/E ratio of 7.86. This expresses a discount compared to the average Forward P/E of 8.64 of its industry.
Meanwhile, MPC's PEG ratio is currently 0.38. Comparable to the widely accepted P/E ratio, the PEG ratio also accounts for the company's projected earnings growth. The Oil and Gas - Refining and Marketing industry had an average PEG ratio of 0.35 as trading concluded yesterday.
The Oil and Gas - Refining and Marketing industry is part of the Oils-Energy sector. With its current Zacks Industry Rank of 47, this industry ranks in the top 20% of all industries, numbering over 250.
The Zacks Industry Rank gauges the strength of our industry groups by measuring the average Zacks Rank of the individual stocks within the groups. Our research shows that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1.
Make sure to utilize Zacks.com to follow all of these stock-moving metrics, and more, in the coming trading sessions.
Marathon Petroleum (MPC - Free Report) has been one of the most searched-for stocks on Zacks.com lately. So, you might want to look at some of the facts that could shape the stock's performance in the near term.
Shares of this refiner have returned -2.9% over the past month versus the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +0.1% change. The Zacks Oil and Gas - Refining and Marketing industry, to which Marathon Petroleum belongs, has lost 8.8% over this period. Now the key question is: Where could the stock be headed in the near term?
Although media reports or rumors about a significant change in a company's business prospects usually cause its stock to trend and lead to an immediate price change, there are always certain fundamental factors that ultimately drive the buy-and-hold decision.
Revisions to Earnings EstimatesHere at Zacks, we prioritize appraising the change in the projection of a company's future earnings over anything else. That's because we believe the present value of its future stream of earnings is what determines the fair value for its stock.
Our analysis is essentially based on how sell-side analysts covering the stock are revising their earnings estimates to take the latest business trends into account. When earnings estimates for a company go up, the fair value for its stock goes up as well. And when a stock's fair value is higher than its current market price, investors tend to buy the stock, resulting in its price moving upward. Because of this, empirical studies indicate a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and short-term stock price movements.
Marathon Petroleum is expected to post earnings of $13.11 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +231.1%. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed +20.9%.
The consensus earnings estimate of $31.35 for the current fiscal year indicates a year-over-year change of +193%. This estimate has changed +5.6% over the last 30 days.
For the next fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of $26.96 indicates a change of -14% from what Marathon Petroleum is expected to report a year ago. Over the past month, the estimate has changed +3.3%.
Having a strong externally audited track record, our proprietary stock rating tool, the Zacks Rank, offers a more conclusive picture of a stock's price direction in the near term, since it effectively harnesses the power of earnings estimate revisions. Due to the size of the recent change in the consensus estimate, along with three other factors related to earnings estimates, Marathon Petroleum is rated Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
The chart below shows the evolution of the company's forward 12-month consensus EPS estimate:
12 Month EPS
Projected Revenue GrowthWhile earnings growth is arguably the most superior indicator of a company's financial health, nothing happens as such if a business isn't able to grow its revenues. After all, it's nearly impossible for a company to increase its earnings for an extended period without increasing its revenues. So, it's important to know a company's potential revenue growth.
For Marathon Petroleum, the consensus sales estimate for the current quarter of $34.87 billion indicates a year-over-year change of +2.2%. For the current and next fiscal years, $144.77 billion and $131.44 billion estimates indicate +7.1% and -9.2% changes, respectively.
Last Reported Results and Surprise HistoryMarathon Petroleum reported revenues of $34.57 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +8.5%. EPS of $1.65 for the same period compares with -$0.24 a year ago.
Compared to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $30.35 billion, the reported revenues represent a surprise of +13.88%. The EPS surprise was +129.17%.
Over the last four quarters, Marathon Petroleum surpassed consensus EPS estimates three times. The company topped consensus revenue estimates each time over this period.
ValuationWithout considering a stock's valuation, no investment decision can be efficient. In predicting a stock's future price performance, it's crucial to determine whether its current price correctly reflects the intrinsic value of the underlying business and the company's growth prospects.
While comparing the current values of a company's valuation multiples, such as price-to-earnings (P/E), price-to-sales (P/S), and price-to-cash flow (P/CF), with its own historical values helps determine whether its stock is fairly valued, overvalued, or undervalued, comparing the company relative to its peers on these parameters gives a good sense of the reasonability of the stock's price.
The Zacks Value Style Score (part of the Zacks Style Scores system), which pays close attention to both traditional and unconventional valuation metrics to grade stocks from A to F (an A is better than a B; a B is better than a C; and so on), is pretty helpful in identifying whether a stock is overvalued, rightly valued, or temporarily undervalued.
Marathon Petroleum is graded A on this front, indicating that it is trading at a discount to its peers. Click here to see the values of some of the valuation metrics that have driven this grade.
ConclusionThe facts discussed here and much other information on Zacks.com might help determine whether or not it's worthwhile paying attention to the market buzz about Marathon Petroleum. However, its Zacks Rank #3 does suggest that it may perform in line with the broader market in the near term.
This is a fair market value price provided by Massive. Learn more.
52-Week Range$158.00▼
$272.46Dividend Yield1.63%
P/E Ratio16.06
Price Target$272.94
Marathon Petroleum NYSE: MPC is one of the most powerful energy companies in the United States, and as might be expected, it is having a very good year.
With an earnings rebound in this year’s first quarter, the company has stronger refining margins, positive returns for its renewable diesel, and surging cash from operations. It’s also, as usual, returning abundant capital to shareholders.
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The question is not whether the business is performing well. The question is whether the cycle driving these results will last long enough to justify buying the stock at current prices.
Multiple Sources of EarningsMarathon operates the nation's largest refining system, but it’s not a single-play investment. With 13 refineries and a daily refining capacity of roughly three million barrels, the company also produces, stores, transports, and sells gasoline, diesel, and other refined products.
It also owns a giant retail network of nearly 8,000 locations, mostly under the Marathon and ARCO brands. And its fee-based midstream and growing renewable diesel segment give it additional sources of cash to help offset cyclical weakness in refining.
Strong Refining Drove First-Quarter ReboundThe first quarter of 2026 showed what Marathon looks like when the refining cycle cooperates.
Total revenue for the quarter came in at $34.6 billion, up 8.5% from the first quarter of 2025, beating analyst estimates. Net income attributable to the company reached $511 million, or $1.73 per diluted share, compared with a net loss of $74 million, or 24 cents per diluted share, in the same quarter a year earlier.
Adjusted net income was $487 million, or $1.65 per diluted share, more than twice what analysts expected. Cash from operations reached $1.1 billion, compared to a negative $64 million a year prior. Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) were $2.8 billion, compared with $2 billion for the first quarter of 2025.
Midstream and Renewable Diesel Added StabilityThe standout segment in the three months was its refining and marketing operations. Adjusted EBITDA came in at $1.4 billion, up from $489 million a year earlier. The segment margin improved to $17.74 per barrel from $13.38 per barrel, as adjusted EBITDA per barrel soared to $5.37 from $1.91.
The company’s midstream business, including pipelines, storage terminals, and processing facilities, continued its role as a fee-based revenue generator largely disconnected from commodity price swings. Conducted through MPLX LP, the segment’s adjusted EBITDA was $1.6 billion in the quarter, down modestly from $1.7 billion a year earlier but still a dependable contributor.
Marathon’s growing renewable diesel operations also contributed. Adjusted EBITDA in that segment turned positive to $38 million, compared with a loss of $42 million in the year-ago period.
Wall Street and Shareholder Returns Support the StockMarathon Petroleum Stock Forecast Today12-Month Stock Price Forecast:
$272.94
10.40% Upside
Moderate Buy
Based on 19 Analyst Ratings
Current Price$247.22High Forecast$344.00Average Forecast$272.94Low Forecast$210.00Marathon Petroleum Stock Forecast Details
Given these results, the company’s recent stock appreciation comes as no surprise. Currently trading near $250 per share, the stock has delivered a year-to-date return above 50%.
Of the 19 analysts following the company, the 12-month average consensus target is $272.94 with a recommendation of a Moderate Buy. After a recent analyst price target raise and several institutions buying into the stock, the highest current 12-month target is $344 per share, while the lowest is $210.
The company’s heavy capital returns also support the share price. Marathon returned more than $1 billion to shareholders in the first quarter alone, and its board approved an additional $5 billion share repurchase program, bringing total available buyback capacity to $8.6 billion.
The company also pays a quarterly dividend of $1 per share, which, at recent share prices, translates to a yield of about 1.6%.
Expansion Projects Aim to Improve FlexibilityThe energy market, however, can change rapidly, with the past several months providing proof of that. West Texas Intermediate crude oil started the year below $60 per barrel and soared to nearly $115 by early April. The current price is in the mid-to-low $70s. With crack spreads at historically high levels, prospects for continued strong earnings in the short-term should be good.
Marathon, for its part, is looking to control some of the unpredictability. During the first quarter, the company brought its Garyville jet fuel flexibility project online, and an upgrade to its El Paso refinery's fluid catalytic cracking unit is due in the second quarter. A jet fuel project at its Robinson refinery is then targeted for the third quarter. By stepping up its product mix, the company is aiming to increase its ability to shift output as market conditions change.
Commodity Cycles and Operational Risks RemainThe risks in the energy business, though, can be masked by the good times. Much of the first-quarter improvement came from favorable market conditions, and those can reverse quickly.
A year ago, the quarter was hit by lengthy planned maintenance, which reduced throughput and increased costs. Crack spreads were smaller, and the company reported a loss. Later in the year, fire-related downtime at one of its refineries helped contribute to lower earnings than expected.
In addition, the company's own risk disclosures flag regulatory changes, geopolitical disruption, tariffs, inflation, interest rates, environmental liabilities, and unplanned outages as material uncertainties. And competition from others in the energy sector, including Valero Energy NYSE: VLO and Phillips 66 NYSE: PSX, is ongoing and intense.
Even strategies to protect against price fluctuations do not always pan out. Much of the decline in earnings from its midstream segment came from a $77 million loss from derivative losses on its hedging activity.
A Strong Company in a Cyclical IndustryThese days, given the state of the world, it’s easy to see how energy companies can thrive. But cycles can quickly switch directions and ruin the best operations.
For investors who want energy exposure in a diversified portfolio, Marathon is a strong choice. It’s a well-run company with a clear capital return strategy, improving operational quality, and a midstream business that provides income stability.
But it’s not a guarantee. Investors should be willing to think in terms of commodity cycles rather than quarter-to-quarter stability. For many value investors, the energy sector is a marathon, not a sprint to the finish.
Should You Invest $1,000 in Marathon Petroleum Right Now?Before you consider Marathon Petroleum, you'll want to hear this.
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What are the Zacks Style Scores? The Zacks Style Scores is a unique set of guidelines that rates stocks based on three popular investing types, and were developed as complementary indicators for the Zacks Rank. This combination helps investors choose securities with the highest chances of beating the market over the next 30 days.
Based on their value, growth, and momentum characteristics, each stock is assigned a rating of A, B, C, D, or F. The better the score, the better chance the stock will outperform; an A is better than a B, a B is better than a C, and so on.
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How Style Scores Work with the Zacks Rank The Zacks Rank, which is a proprietary stock-rating model, employs earnings estimate revisions, or changes to a company's earnings expectations, to make building a winning portfolio easier.
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Thus, the more stocks you own with a #1 or #2 Rank and Scores of A or B, the better.
Stock to Watch: Marathon Petroleum (MPC - Free Report) Findlay, OH-based Marathon Petroleum Corporation is a leading independent refiner, transporter and marketer of petroleum products. The company, in its current form, came into existence following the 2011 spin-off of Houston, TX-based Marathon Oil Corporation’s refining/sales business into a separate, independent and publicly-traded entity. In October 2018, Marathon Oil completed the acquisition of its rival Andeavor in a $23.3 billion deal, thereby becoming the nationwide largest refining company by market capitalization. The deal also made the company the largest U.S. refiner and the fifth largest in the world by capacity.
MPC is a #3 (Hold) on the Zacks Rank, with a VGM Score of A.
It also boasts a Value Style Score of A thanks to attractive valuation metrics like a forward P/E ratio of 7.93; value investors should take notice.
Six analysts revised their earnings estimate higher in the last 60 days for fiscal 2026, while the Zacks Consensus Estimate has increased $5.56 to $31.35 per share. MPC also boasts an average earnings surprise of +49.5%.
With a solid Zacks Rank and top-tier Value and VGM Style Scores, MPC should be on investors' short list.
When deciding whether to buy, sell, or hold a stock, investors often rely on analyst recommendations. Media reports about rating changes by these brokerage-firm-employed (or sell-side) analysts often influence a stock's price, but are they really important?
Before we discuss the reliability of brokerage recommendations and how to use them to your advantage, let's see what these Wall Street heavyweights think about Marathon Petroleum (MPC - Free Report) .
Marathon Petroleum currently has an average brokerage recommendation (ABR) of 1.87, on a scale of 1 to 5 (Strong Buy to Strong Sell), calculated based on the actual recommendations (Buy, Hold, Sell, etc.) made by 19 brokerage firms. An ABR of 1.87 approximates between Strong Buy and Buy.
Of the 19 recommendations that derive the current ABR, nine are Strong Buy and three are Buy. Strong Buy and Buy respectively account for 47.4% and 15.8% of all recommendations.
Brokerage Recommendation Trends for MPC
Check price target & stock forecast for Marathon Petroleum here>>>
While the ABR calls for buying Marathon Petroleum, it may not be wise to make an investment decision solely based on this information. Several studies have shown limited to no success of brokerage recommendations in guiding investors to pick stocks with the best price increase potential.
Are you wondering why? The vested interest of brokerage firms in a stock they cover often results in a strong positive bias of their analysts in rating it. Our research shows that for every "Strong Sell" recommendation, brokerage firms assign five "Strong Buy" recommendations.
This means that the interests of these institutions are not always aligned with those of retail investors, giving little insight into the direction of a stock's future price movement. It would therefore be best to use this information to validate your own analysis or a tool that has proven to be highly effective at predicting stock price movements.
With an impressive externally audited track record, our proprietary stock rating tool, the Zacks Rank, which classifies stocks into five groups, ranging from Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) to Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell), is a reliable indicator of a stock's near-term price performance. So, validating the Zacks Rank with ABR could go a long way in making a profitable investment decision.
Zacks Rank Should Not Be Confused With ABRAlthough both Zacks Rank and ABR are displayed in a range of 1--5, they are different measures altogether.
The ABR is calculated solely based on brokerage recommendations and is typically displayed with decimals (example: 1.28). In contrast, the Zacks Rank is a quantitative model allowing investors to harness the power of earnings estimate revisions. It is displayed in whole numbers -- 1 to 5.
Analysts employed by brokerage firms have been and continue to be overly optimistic with their recommendations. Since the ratings issued by these analysts are more favorable than their research would support because of the vested interest of their employers, they mislead investors far more often than they guide.
On the other hand, earnings estimate revisions are at the core of the Zacks Rank. And empirical research shows a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and near-term stock price movements.
In addition, the different Zacks Rank grades are applied proportionately to all stocks for which brokerage analysts provide current-year earnings estimates. In other words, this tool always maintains a balance among its five ranks.
There is also a key difference between the ABR and Zacks Rank when it comes to freshness. When you look at the ABR, it may not be up-to-date. Nonetheless, since brokerage analysts constantly revise their earnings estimates to reflect changing business trends, and their actions get reflected in the Zacks Rank quickly enough, it is always timely in predicting future stock prices.
Should You Invest in MPC?In terms of earnings estimate revisions for Marathon Petroleum, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the current year has increased 7.7% over the past month to $31.95.
Analysts' growing optimism over the company's earnings prospects, as indicated by strong agreement among them in revising EPS estimates higher, could be a legitimate reason for the stock to soar in the near term.
The size of the recent change in the consensus estimate, along with three other factors related to earnings estimates, has resulted in a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) for Marathon Petroleum. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) stocks here >>>>
Therefore, the Buy-equivalent ABR for Marathon Petroleum may serve as a useful guide for investors.
Marathon Petroleum (MPC - Free Report) ended the recent trading session at $244.61, demonstrating a -2.34% change from the preceding day's closing price. This move lagged the S&P 500's daily loss of 1.22%. Meanwhile, the Dow experienced a drop of 0.98%, and the technology-dominated Nasdaq saw a decrease of 1.35%.
Coming into today, shares of the refiner had lost 4.77% in the past month. In that same time, the Oils-Energy sector lost 6.85%, while the S&P 500 gained 1.56%.
The upcoming earnings release of Marathon Petroleum will be of great interest to investors. The company's earnings report is expected on August 4, 2026. The company's earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be $14.25, reflecting a 259.85% increase from the same quarter last year. Alongside, our most recent consensus estimate is anticipating revenue of $34.87 billion, indicating a 2.24% upward movement from the same quarter last year.
MPC's full-year Zacks Consensus Estimates are calling for earnings of $31.95 per share and revenue of $143.04 billion. These results would represent year-over-year changes of +198.6% and +5.78%, respectively.
Additionally, investors should keep an eye on any recent revisions to analyst forecasts for Marathon Petroleum. These revisions typically reflect the latest short-term business trends, which can change frequently. Consequently, upward revisions in estimates express analysts' positivity towards the business operations and its ability to generate profits.
Based on our research, we believe these estimate revisions are directly related to near-term stock moves. We developed the Zacks Rank to capitalize on this phenomenon. Our system takes these estimate changes into account and delivers a clear, actionable rating model.
Ranging from #1 (Strong Buy) to #5 (Strong Sell), the Zacks Rank system has a proven, outside-audited track record of outperformance, with #1 stocks returning an average of +25% annually since 1988. Over the past month, there's been a 7.66% rise in the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate. Marathon Petroleum presently features a Zacks Rank of #1 (Strong Buy).
In terms of valuation, Marathon Petroleum is currently trading at a Forward P/E ratio of 7.84. This signifies a discount in comparison to the average Forward P/E of 8.7 for its industry.
Also, we should mention that MPC has a PEG ratio of 0.38. The PEG ratio bears resemblance to the frequently used P/E ratio, but this parameter also includes the company's expected earnings growth trajectory. The Oil and Gas - Refining and Marketing industry had an average PEG ratio of 0.35 as trading concluded yesterday.
The Oil and Gas - Refining and Marketing industry is part of the Oils-Energy sector. This industry currently has a Zacks Industry Rank of 20, which puts it in the top 9% of all 250+ industries.
The strength of our individual industry groups is measured by the Zacks Industry Rank, which is calculated based on the average Zacks Rank of the individual stocks within these groups. Our research shows that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1.
Be sure to follow all of these stock-moving metrics, and many more, on Zacks.com.
, /PRNewswire/ -- Marathon Petroleum Corp. (NYSE: MPC) will host a conference call on Tuesday, August 4, 2026, at 11 a.m. EDT to discuss 2026 second-quarter financial results.
Interested parties may listen to the conference call by visiting MPC's website at www.marathonpetroleum.com. A replay of the webcast will be available on MPC's website for two weeks. Financial information, including the earnings release and other investor-related material, will also be available online prior to the conference call and webcast at www.marathonpetroleum.com.
About Marathon Petroleum Corporation
MPC is a leading, integrated, downstream and midstream energy company headquartered in Findlay, Ohio. The company operates the nation's largest refining system. MPC's marketing system includes branded locations across the United States, including Marathon brand retail outlets. MPC also owns the general partner and majority limited partner interest in MPLX LP, a midstream company that owns and operates gathering, processing, and fractionation assets, as well as crude oil and light product transportation and logistics infrastructure. More information is available at www.marathonpetroleum.com.
Here are three stocks with buy ranks and strong growth characteristics for investors to consider today, June 1:
Pitney Bowes Inc. (PBI - Free Report) : This technology-driven company offering shipping, mailing, and e-commerce logistics solutions worldwide carries a Zacks Rank #1, and has witnessed the Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current year earnings increasing nearly 11% over the last 60 days.
Pitney Bowes has a PEG ratio of 0.72 compared with 0.81 for the industry. The company possesses a Growth Score of A.
Centene Corporation (CNC - Free Report) : This managed care company carries a Zacks Rank #1, and has witnessed the Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current year earnings increasing 15.3% over the last 60 days.
Centene has a PEG ratio of 0.46 compared with 1.03 for the industry. The company possesses a Growth Score of A.
Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC - Free Report) : This integrated downstream energy company carries a Zacks Rank #1, and has witnessed the Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current year earnings increasing 75.1% over the last 60 days.
Marathon Petroleum has a PEG ratio of 0.40 compared with 0.48 for the industry. The company possesses a Growth Score of B.
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Learn more about the Growth score and how it is calculated here.
Investors often turn to recommendations made by Wall Street analysts before making a Buy, Sell, or Hold decision about a stock. While media reports about rating changes by these brokerage-firm employed (or sell-side) analysts often affect a stock's price, do they really matter?
Let's take a look at what these Wall Street heavyweights have to say about Marathon Petroleum (MPC - Free Report) before we discuss the reliability of brokerage recommendations and how to use them to your advantage.
Marathon Petroleum currently has an average brokerage recommendation (ABR) of 1.87, on a scale of 1 to 5 (Strong Buy to Strong Sell), calculated based on the actual recommendations (Buy, Hold, Sell, etc.) made by 19 brokerage firms. An ABR of 1.87 approximates between Strong Buy and Buy.
Of the 19 recommendations that derive the current ABR, nine are Strong Buy and three are Buy. Strong Buy and Buy respectively account for 47.4% and 15.8% of all recommendations.
Brokerage Recommendation Trends for MPC
Check price target & stock forecast for Marathon Petroleum here>>>
While the ABR calls for buying Marathon Petroleum, it may not be wise to make an investment decision solely based on this information. Several studies have shown limited to no success of brokerage recommendations in guiding investors to pick stocks with the best price increase potential.
Are you wondering why? The vested interest of brokerage firms in a stock they cover often results in a strong positive bias of their analysts in rating it. Our research shows that for every "Strong Sell" recommendation, brokerage firms assign five "Strong Buy" recommendations.
In other words, their interests aren't always aligned with retail investors, rarely indicating where the price of a stock could actually be heading. Therefore, the best use of this information could be validating your own research or an indicator that has proven to be highly successful in predicting a stock's price movement.
Zacks Rank, our proprietary stock rating tool with an impressive externally audited track record, categorizes stocks into five groups, ranging from Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) to Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell), and is an effective indicator of a stock's price performance in the near future. Therefore, using the ABR to validate the Zacks Rank could be an efficient way of making a profitable investment decision.
Zacks Rank Should Not Be Confused With ABRAlthough both Zacks Rank and ABR are displayed in a range of 1--5, they are different measures altogether.
The ABR is calculated solely based on brokerage recommendations and is typically displayed with decimals (example: 1.28). In contrast, the Zacks Rank is a quantitative model allowing investors to harness the power of earnings estimate revisions. It is displayed in whole numbers -- 1 to 5.
It has been and continues to be the case that analysts employed by brokerage firms are overly optimistic with their recommendations. Because of their employers' vested interests, these analysts issue more favorable ratings than their research would support, misguiding investors far more often than helping them.
On the other hand, earnings estimate revisions are at the core of the Zacks Rank. And empirical research shows a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and near-term stock price movements.
Furthermore, the different grades of the Zacks Rank are applied proportionately across all stocks for which brokerage analysts provide earnings estimates for the current year. In other words, at all times, this tool maintains a balance among the five ranks it assigns.
There is also a key difference between the ABR and Zacks Rank when it comes to freshness. When you look at the ABR, it may not be up-to-date. Nonetheless, since brokerage analysts constantly revise their earnings estimates to reflect changing business trends, and their actions get reflected in the Zacks Rank quickly enough, it is always timely in predicting future stock prices.
Is MPC Worth Investing In?In terms of earnings estimate revisions for Marathon Petroleum, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the current year has increased 14.3% over the past month to $30.05.
Analysts' growing optimism over the company's earnings prospects, as indicated by strong agreement among them in revising EPS estimates higher, could be a legitimate reason for the stock to soar in the near term.
The size of the recent change in the consensus estimate, along with three other factors related to earnings estimates, has resulted in a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) for Marathon Petroleum. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) stocks here >>>>
Therefore, the Buy-equivalent ABR for Marathon Petroleum may serve as a useful guide for investors.
Here are three stocks with buy ranks and strong growth characteristics for investors to consider today, June 3:
Pitney Bowes Inc. (PBI - Free Report) : This technology-driven company offering shipping, mailing, and e-commerce logistics solutions worldwide carries a Zacks Rank #1, and has witnessed the Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current year earnings increasing nearly 11% over the last 60 days.
Pitney Bowes has a PEG ratio of 0.76 compared with 0.83 for the industry. The company possesses a Growth Score of A.
Centene Corporation (CNC - Free Report) : This managed care company carries a Zacks Rank #1, and has witnessed the Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current year earnings increasing 15.3% over the last 60 days.
Centene has a PEG ratio of 0.48 compared with 1.06 for the industry. The company possesses a Growth Score of A.
Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC - Free Report) : This integrated downstream energy company carries a Zacks Rank #1, and has witnessed the Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current year earnings increasing 75.1% over the last 60 days.
Marathon Petroleum has a PEG ratio of 0.41 compared with 0.49 for the industry. The company possesses a Growth Score of B.
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Learn more about the Growth score and how it is calculated here.
Key Takeaways MPC owns the West Coast's largest refinery, with 365,000 barrels per day of capacity.California's constrained refining capacity can boost margins when supply tightens or outages occur.MPC's Los Angeles refinery supplies CARB-compliant fuels in a market with limited competition. Marathon Petroleum Corporation’s (MPC - Free Report) refining network spans the Gulf Coast, Mid-Continent and West Coast, but recent industry developments suggest its California exposure may be becoming increasingly valuable.
The company operates the Los Angeles refinery, the largest refinery on the West Coast, with crude oil processing capacity of 365,000 barrels per day. Marathon Petroleum also owns the Anacortes refinery in Washington and the Kenai refinery in Alaska, giving it a meaningful presence in a region where fuel supply is becoming structurally tighter.
Image Source: Marathon Petroleum Corporation
Unlike the U.S. Gulf Coast, where refining capacity additions and export flexibility help balance markets, the West Coast has experienced years of capacity rationalization. Several refineries have either shut down, converted to renewable fuel production or reduced operations. At the same time, stringent environmental regulations and permitting hurdles make new refinery construction highly unlikely. This has created a market where unexpected outages can have an outsized impact on fuel availability and pricing.
The importance of this dynamic becomes more evident during periods of elevated demand. California remains one of the largest gasoline-consuming markets in the United States, while local supply growth remains constrained. As a result, refiners with existing, well-positioned assets can benefit from stronger margins when inventories tighten or operational disruptions emerge elsewhere in the region.
For Marathon Petroleum, scale matters. The Los Angeles refinery is a major producer of California's specialized CARB-compliant fuels, which face limited competition due to strict product specifications. The ability to supply these premium fuels strengthens the strategic value of the asset and provides access to a market that is difficult for outside refiners to serve efficiently.
How Do Peers Compare?Marathon Petroleum is not alone in benefiting from West Coast refining exposure. Valero Energy (VLO - Free Report) operates major refining assets in California, including facilities in Benicia and Wilmington. Like Marathon Petroleum, Valero supplies CARB-compliant fuels and stands to benefit when regional fuel markets tighten. However, Valero's overall refining footprint remains more concentrated on the Gulf Coast, making California a smaller contributor to its overall earnings mix.
PBF Energy (PBF - Free Report) also maintains significant West Coast exposure through its Torrance and Martinez refineries. The company has increasingly focused on optimizing its California operations. But portions of PBF Energy’s West Coast portfolio have undergone strategic transitions in recent years. As a result, PBF Energy's regional positioning differs somewhat from Marathon Petroleum's more established refining network.
With California fuel demand remaining substantial and regional refining capacity constrained, Marathon Petroleum, Valero and PBF Energy all have valuable assets in the market. However, Marathon Petroleum's ownership of the largest refinery on the West Coast provides a scale advantage that could become increasingly important if supply tightness persists.
MPC’s Share Price, ROE and Earnings ExpectationsOver the past year, Marathon Petroleum stock rose 62.4%, beating the Oil Refining & Marketing sub-industry average of 55.5%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Marathon Petroleum delivered a higher return on equity (“ROE”) of 16.22%, outperforming its sub-industry average of 15.64%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Analysts have turned more positive on MPC’s earnings outlook, with EPS estimates rising 75.12% for 2026 and 66.98% for 2027 over the last 60 days, reflecting stronger growth confidence.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
MPC currently sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Marathon Petroleum (MPC - Free Report) . Shares have added about 8.7% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.
But investors have to be wondering, will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Marathon Petroleum due for a pullback? Well, first let's take a quick look at the latest earnings report in order to get a better handle on the recent drivers for Marathon Petroleum Corporation before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late.
Marathon Q1 Earnings Beat Estimates on Strong Refining ResultsMarathon Petroleum reported first-quarter 2026 adjusted earnings per share of $1.65, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 72 cents. Moreover, the bottom line increased significantly from the year-ago adjusted loss of 24 cents. The outperformance was driven by stronger-than-expected Refining & Marketing segment performance.
The Findlay, OH-based oil and gas refining and marketing company reported revenues of $34.6 billion, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $30.3 billion. Moreover, the top line increased 8.5% year over year, reflecting higher sales and other operating revenues, along with higher revenues from other income.
The company distributed approximately $1 billion to its shareholders during the first quarter and ended the quarter with $3.6 billion of capacity remaining under its share repurchase authorizations as of March 31, 2026.
MPC also announced an incremental $5 billion share repurchase authorization. With the addition of this new authorization, the company will have $8.6 billion available under its share repurchase authorizations as of March 31, 2026.
Inside Marathon Petroleum’s SegmentsRefining & Marketing: The Refining & Marketing segment reported adjusted EBITDA of $1.4 billion, up approximately 181.6% from the year-ago figure of $489 million, and the figure surpassed the consensus estimate by 51%.
The refining margin improved to $17.74 per barrel from $13.38 in the prior-year quarter, primarily reflecting stronger crack spreads. Moreover, the figure beat the consensus estimate by 10.3%. Refining capacity utilization for the quarter was 89%, in line with the year-ago period.
Midstream: This unit mainly reflects Marathon Petroleum’s general partner and majority limited partner interests in MPLX — a publicly traded master limited partnership that owns, operates, develops and acquires pipelines and other midstream assets.
The segment reported adjusted EBITDA of $1.6 billion, down from the year-ago figure of $1.7 billion. The figure also missed the consensus estimate by 2.7%.
Financial AnalysisMarathon Petroleum reported expenses of $33.2 billion in the first quarter of 2026, up from $31.2 billion reported in the year-ago quarter.
In the reported quarter, Marathon Petroleum spent $1.2 billion on capital programs (26% on Refining & Marketing and 71% on the Midstream segment) compared with $776 million in the year-ago period.
As of March 31, 2026, this company had cash and cash equivalents of $2.1 billion and total debt, including that of MPLX, of $32.8 billion, with a debt-to-capitalization of 58.3%.
GuidanceIn the second quarter of 2026, Marathon Petroleum expects solid operating performance, supported by refinery throughput of nearly 3 million barrels per day, including 2.8 million bpd of crude oil refined. The company projects refining operating costs of approximately $5.65 per barrel, while distribution expenses are expected to total around $1.63 billion. Planned turnaround costs are forecast at $300 million, and depreciation and amortization expense for the Refining & Marketing segment is expected to be about $390 million, while corporate costs are projected at roughly $240 million, including $30 million of depreciation and amortization. Overall, the outlook reflects continued strong utilization levels and a more normalized maintenance schedule heading into the quarter.
Marathon Petroleum expects 2026 capital spending, excluding MPLX, to total nearly $1.5 billion. Around 65% of the planned expenditure is directed toward value-enhancing projects, while the remaining 35% is allocated to sustaining operations. The company’s investment plan includes several high-return initiatives across its Galveston Bay, Robinson, El Paso and Garyville refineries. During the first quarter of 2026, MPC successfully commissioned the Garyville jet flexibility project, where upgrades to the hydrocracker fractionator now enable the conversion of existing products into higher-value jet fuel. This enhancement positions the company to capitalize on rising domestic and international jet fuel demand. Alongside these long-term strategic investments, MPC is also pursuing shorter-cycle projects aimed at improving margins and lowering operating costs.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?In the past month, investors have witnessed a upward trend in estimates revision.
The consensus estimate has shifted 12.44% due to these changes.
VGM ScoresCurrently, Marathon Petroleum has a nice Growth Score of B, though it is lagging a bit on the Momentum Score front with a C. However, the stock was allocated a grade of A on the value side, putting it in the top 20% for this investment strategy.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
OutlookEstimates have been broadly trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. It comes with little surprise Marathon Petroleum has a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). We expect an above average return from the stock in the next few months.
Performance of an Industry PlayerMarathon Petroleum is part of the Zacks Oil and Gas - Refining and Marketing industry. Over the past month, Phillips 66 (PSX - Free Report) , a stock from the same industry, has gained 7.6%. The company reported its results for the quarter ended March 2026 more than a month ago.
Phillips 66 reported revenues of $33 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +4%. EPS of $0.49 for the same period compares with -$0.90 a year ago.
For the current quarter, Phillips 66 is expected to post earnings of $5.83 per share, indicating a change of +145% from the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed -9.1% over the last 30 days.
Phillips 66 has a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) based on the overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions. Additionally, the stock has a VGM Score of D.
Taking full advantage of the stock market and investing with confidence are common goals for new and old investors, and Zacks Premium offers many different ways to do both.
The popular research service can help you become a smarter, more self-assured investor, giving you access to daily updates of the Zacks Rank and Zacks Industry Rank, the Zacks #1 Rank List, Equity Research reports, and Premium stock screens.
Zacks Premium includes access to the Zacks Style Scores as well.
What are the Zacks Style Scores? Developed alongside the Zacks Rank, the Zacks Style Scores are a group of complementary indicators that help investors pick stocks with the best chances of beating the market over the next 30 days.
Each stock is assigned a rating of A, B, C, D, or F based on their value, growth, and momentum characteristics. Just like in school, an A is better than a B, a B is better than a C, and so on -- that means the better the score, the better chance the stock will outperform.
The Style Scores are broken down into four categories:
Value ScoreValue investors love finding good stocks at good prices, especially before the broader market catches on to a stock's true value. Utilizing ratios like P/E, PEG, Price/Sales, Price/Cash Flow, and many other multiples, the Value Style Score identifies the most attractive and most discounted stocks.
Growth ScoreGrowth investors are more concerned with a stock's future prospects, and the overall financial health and strength of a company. Thus, the Growth Style Score analyzes characteristics like projected and historic earnings, sales, and cash flow to find stocks that will see sustainable growth over time.
Momentum ScoreMomentum trading is all about taking advantage of upward or downward trends in a stock's price or earnings outlook, and these investors live by the saying "the trend is your friend." The Momentum Style Score can pinpoint good times to build a position in a stock, using factors like one-week price change and the monthly percentage change in earnings estimates.
VGM ScoreIf you like to use all three kinds of investing, then the VGM Score is for you. It's a combination of all Style Scores, and is an important indicator to use with the Zacks Rank. The VGM Score rates each stock on their shared weighted styles, narrowing down the companies with the most attractive value, best growth forecast, and most promising momentum.
How Style Scores Work with the Zacks Rank A proprietary stock-rating model, the Zacks Rank utilizes the power of earnings estimate revisions, or changes to a company's earnings outlook, to help investors create a successful portfolio.
#1 (Strong Buy) stocks have produced an unmatched +23.7% average annual return since 1988, which is more than double the S&P 500's performance over the same time frame. However, the Zacks Rank examines a ton of stocks, and there can be more than 200 companies with a Strong Buy rank, and another 600 with a #2 (Buy) rank, on any given day.
This totals more than 800 top-rated stocks, and it can be overwhelming to try and pick the best stocks for you and your portfolio.
That's where the Style Scores come in.
To have the best chance of big returns, you'll want to always consider stocks with a Zacks Rank #1 or #2 that also have Style Scores of A or B, which will give you the highest probability of success. If you're looking at stocks with a #3 (Hold) rank, it's important they have Scores of A or B as well to ensure as much upside potential as possible.
As mentioned above, the Scores are designed to work with the Zacks Rank, so any change to a company's earnings outlook should be a deciding factor when picking which stocks to buy.
For instance, a stock with a #4 (Sell) or #5 (Strong Sell) rating, even one that boasts Scores of A and B, still has a downward-trending earnings forecast, and a much greater likelihood its share price will decline as well.
Thus, the more stocks you own with a #1 or #2 Rank and Scores of A or B, the better.
Stock to Watch: Marathon Petroleum (MPC - Free Report) Findlay, OH-based Marathon Petroleum Corporation is a leading independent refiner, transporter and marketer of petroleum products. The company, in its current form, came into existence following the 2011 spin-off of Houston, TX-based Marathon Oil Corporation’s refining/sales business into a separate, independent and publicly-traded entity. In October 2018, Marathon Oil completed the acquisition of its rival Andeavor in a $23.3 billion deal, thereby becoming the nationwide largest refining company by market capitalization. The deal also made the company the largest U.S. refiner and the fifth largest in the world by capacity.
MPC is a #1 (Strong Buy) on the Zacks Rank, with a VGM Score of A.
It also boasts a Value Style Score of A thanks to attractive valuation metrics like a forward P/E ratio of 8.72; value investors should take notice.
Seven analysts revised their earnings estimate upwards in the last 60 days for fiscal 2026. The Zacks Consensus Estimate has increased $10.47 to $30.05 per share. MPC boasts an average earnings surprise of +49.5%.
With a solid Zacks Rank and top-tier Value and VGM Style Scores, MPC should be on investors' short list.
Marathon Petroleum (MPC - Free Report) has been one of the most searched-for stocks on Zacks.com lately. So, you might want to look at some of the facts that could shape the stock's performance in the near term.
Shares of this refiner have returned +2.4% over the past month versus the Zacks S&P 500 composite's no change. The Zacks Oil and Gas - Refining and Marketing industry, to which Marathon Petroleum belongs, has gained 1.7% over this period. Now the key question is: Where could the stock be headed in the near term?
Although media reports or rumors about a significant change in a company's business prospects usually cause its stock to trend and lead to an immediate price change, there are always certain fundamental factors that ultimately drive the buy-and-hold decision.
Earnings Estimate RevisionsHere at Zacks, we prioritize appraising the change in the projection of a company's future earnings over anything else. That's because we believe the present value of its future stream of earnings is what determines the fair value for its stock.
Our analysis is essentially based on how sell-side analysts covering the stock are revising their earnings estimates to take the latest business trends into account. When earnings estimates for a company go up, the fair value for its stock goes up as well. And when a stock's fair value is higher than its current market price, investors tend to buy the stock, resulting in its price moving upward. Because of this, empirical studies indicate a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and short-term stock price movements.
For the current quarter, Marathon Petroleum is expected to post earnings of $10.84 per share, indicating a change of +173.7% from the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate remained unchanged over the last 30 days.
For the current fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of $30.05 points to a change of +180.8% from the prior year. Over the last 30 days, this estimate has changed +4.2%.
For the next fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of $26.55 indicates a change of -11.6% from what Marathon Petroleum is expected to report a year ago. Over the past month, the estimate has changed +6.1%.
Having a strong externally audited track record, our proprietary stock rating tool, the Zacks Rank, offers a more conclusive picture of a stock's price direction in the near term, since it effectively harnesses the power of earnings estimate revisions. Due to the size of the recent change in the consensus estimate, along with three other factors related to earnings estimates, Marathon Petroleum is rated Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy).
The chart below shows the evolution of the company's forward 12-month consensus EPS estimate:
12 Month EPS
Projected Revenue GrowthEven though a company's earnings growth is arguably the best indicator of its financial health, nothing much happens if it cannot raise its revenues. It's almost impossible for a company to grow its earnings without growing its revenue for long periods. Therefore, knowing a company's potential revenue growth is crucial.
In the case of Marathon Petroleum, the consensus sales estimate of $34.87 billion for the current quarter points to a year-over-year change of +2.2%. The $143.04 billion and $131.44 billion estimates for the current and next fiscal years indicate changes of +5.8% and -8.1%, respectively.
Last Reported Results and Surprise HistoryMarathon Petroleum reported revenues of $34.57 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +8.5%. EPS of $1.65 for the same period compares with -$0.24 a year ago.
Compared to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $30.35 billion, the reported revenues represent a surprise of +13.88%. The EPS surprise was +129.17%.
Over the last four quarters, Marathon Petroleum surpassed consensus EPS estimates three times. The company topped consensus revenue estimates each time over this period.
ValuationNo investment decision can be efficient without considering a stock's valuation. Whether a stock's current price rightly reflects the intrinsic value of the underlying business and the company's growth prospects is an essential determinant of its future price performance.
While comparing the current values of a company's valuation multiples, such as price-to-earnings (P/E), price-to-sales (P/S), and price-to-cash flow (P/CF), with its own historical values helps determine whether its stock is fairly valued, overvalued, or undervalued, comparing the company relative to its peers on these parameters gives a good sense of the reasonability of the stock's price.
As part of the Zacks Style Scores system, the Zacks Value Style Score (which evaluates both traditional and unconventional valuation metrics) organizes stocks into five groups ranging from A to F (A is better than B; B is better than C; and so on), making it helpful in identifying whether a stock is overvalued, rightly valued, or temporarily undervalued.
Marathon Petroleum is graded A on this front, indicating that it is trading at a discount to its peers. Click here to see the values of some of the valuation metrics that have driven this grade.
Bottom LineThe facts discussed here and much other information on Zacks.com might help determine whether or not it's worthwhile paying attention to the market buzz about Marathon Petroleum. However, its Zacks Rank #1 does suggest that it may outperform the broader market in the near term.
Key Takeaways MPC's Q1 adjusted EBITDA reached $2.8B as refining earnings nearly tripled y/y.MPC's Refining & Marketing margin rose to $17.74 per barrel from $13.38 a year earlier.MPC returned about $1B via dividends and buybacks, and approved a $5B repurchase plan. Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC - Free Report) shares have surged in recent months and remain near their 52-week high, currently trading at $258.15 after a modest pullback from their 52-week high of $272.46 achieved earlier this month, making the stock one of the strongest performers in the energy sector.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
While some investors may hesitate to buy a stock after a significant rally, strong companies often reach new highs because their fundamentals continue to improve. In Marathon Petroleum’s case, rising refining margins, growing midstream earnings and a shareholder-friendly capital-allocation strategy continue to support the investment case.
The key question for investors is whether MPC’s recent rally reflects peak optimism or whether the company has room to deliver additional gains.
MPC's Integrated Business Model Remains a StrengthMarathon Petroleum operates one of the largest refining systems in the United States, with approximately 3 million barrels per day of refining capacity. In addition to its refining operations, the company owns a significant stake in MPLX LP (MPLX - Free Report) , one of North America’s largest midstream operators.
This integrated structure provides multiple sources of earnings. While refining profits can fluctuate with market conditions, MPLX generates stable fee-based cash flows that help reduce earnings volatility and strengthen the company’s financial profile.
The benefits of this model were evident in the first quarter of 2026. MPC generated adjusted EBITDA of $2.8 billion. The Refining & Marketing (R&M) segment contributed $1.4 billion, nearly triple the year-ago level, supported by stronger refining margins and efficient operations. Meanwhile, MPLX LP continued to provide stable cash-flow support through its diversified midstream asset base.
Strong Refining Fundamentals Drive GrowthThe refining environment has improved considerably over the past year. Global supply disruptions, geopolitical uncertainty and resilient fuel demand have supported stronger crack spreads and higher refining margins.
These favorable conditions were reflected in MPC’s first-quarter results. R&M’s adjusted EBITDA rose to $1.4 billion from $489 million in the year-earlier period. The segmental margin increased to $17.74 per barrel from $13.38.
These results came despite the company completing roughly 40% of its planned annual turnaround activity during the quarter. Marathon Petroleum maintained an 89% crude utilization rate while delivering strong operational performance.
Management also highlighted healthy demand trends across gasoline, diesel and jet fuel markets. With its large refining footprint and integrated logistics network, Marathon Petroleum appears well-positioned to benefit from favorable market conditions through the remainder of 2026.
Growth Projects Support Future EarningsAlthough the company remains disciplined with capital spending, it continues to invest in projects that offer attractive returns.
Marathon Petroleum recently completed its Garyville jet fuel project and is advancing additional projects at its El Paso and Robinson facilities. These investments are expected to improve product flexibility, enhance margins and better align production with market demand.
At the same time, MPLX continues to expand its natural gas and NGL infrastructure, particularly in the Permian Basin. These projects should support long-term cash-flow growth and increase distributions flowing back to Marathon Petroleum.
Together, refining optimization initiatives and midstream expansion projects provide a clear path for earnings growth.
Shareholder Returns Remain Major AttractionOne of the strongest aspects of the MPC investment story is its commitment to returning capital to shareholders.
In the first quarter, the company returned approximately $1 billion through dividends and share repurchases. Management also approved an additional $5-billion share-repurchase authorization, demonstrating confidence in the company’s outlook.
The growing cash distributions received from MPLX further strengthen Marathon Petroleum’s ability to maintain and expand shareholder returns. Management expects MPLX’s growth strategy to support double-digit annual distribution growth to MPC over the next two years, creating another source of value for investors.
Valuation Still Looks ReasonableDespite trading near its 52-week high, Marathon Petroleum trades at a forward P/E of 9.05X, below the Oil-Energy sector average of 11.41X and between peer valuations, trading above Valero Energy (VLO - Free Report) but below PBF Energy (PBF - Free Report) , underscoring its attractive valuation relative to its earnings potential.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Unlike many momentum-driven stocks, MPC’s recent gains have been supported by improving fundamentals, rising earnings expectations and favorable industry conditions. Its exposure to both refining and midstream operations also helps reduce risks compared with many pure-play refining peers.
Analysts have become increasingly optimistic about the company’s outlook. Over the past 60 days, the consensus estimate for 2026 earnings has risen from $21.49 per share to $30.05, while the 2027 estimate has increased from $20.36 to $26.55.
Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchMarket sentiment remains favorable as well. MPC has an average brokerage rating of 1.87 on a 1-to-5 scale, where 1 represents Strong Buy. Of the 19 analysts covering the stock, nine rate it as a Strong Buy and three rate it as a Buy. Similar to Valero Energy and PBF Energy, Marathon Petroleum is benefiting from a favorable refining environment, but its integrated business model provides an additional source of earnings stability through MPLX.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
What's the Right Move for Investors: Buy or Hold?Marathon Petroleum's strong first-quarter performance, improving refining margins, expanding MPLX cash flows and disciplined capital-allocation strategy reinforce its long-term investment appeal. The company continues to benefit from resilient fuel demand, favorable market conditions and a portfolio of high-return growth projects.
Although MPC is trading near its 52-week high, the stock’s strength appears to be driven by improving fundamentals rather than excessive optimism. With attractive valuation, robust shareholder returns and multiple growth catalysts in place, Marathon Petroleum remains well-positioned to create value for investors. Compared with peers such as Valero Energy and PBF Energy, MPC offers investors a more diversified earnings stream, supported by refining and midstream operations.
Marathon Petroleum currently flaunts a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), reflecting positive earnings estimate revisions and improving business momentum. For investors seeking exposure to a high-quality downstream energy company, MPC appears to remain a compelling buy despite trading near its 52-week high. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
It doesn't matter your age or experience: taking full advantage of the stock market and investing with confidence are common goals for all investors. Luckily, Zacks Premium offers several different ways to do both.
Featuring daily updates of the Zacks Rank and Zacks Industry Rank, full access to the Zacks #1 Rank List, Equity Research reports, and Premium stock screens, the research service can help you become a smarter, more self-assured investor.
It also includes access to the Zacks Style Scores.
What are the Zacks Style Scores? Developed alongside the Zacks Rank, the Zacks Style Scores are a group of complementary indicators that help investors pick stocks with the best chances of beating the market over the next 30 days.
Based on their value, growth, and momentum characteristics, each stock is assigned a rating of A, B, C, D, or F. The better the score, the better chance the stock will outperform; an A is better than a B, a B is better than a C, and so on.
The Style Scores are broken down into four categories:
Value ScoreFor value investors, it's all about finding good stocks at good prices, and discovering which companies are trading under their true value before the broader market catches on. The Value Style Score utilizes ratios like P/E, PEG, Price/Sales, Price/Cash Flow, and a host of other multiples to help pick out the most attractive and discounted stocks.
Growth ScoreWhile good value is important, growth investors are more focused on a company's financial strength and health, and its future outlook. The Growth Style Score takes projected and historic earnings, sales, and cash flow into account to uncover stocks that will see long-term, sustainable growth.
Momentum ScoreMomentum trading is all about taking advantage of upward or downward trends in a stock's price or earnings outlook, and these investors live by the saying "the trend is your friend." The Momentum Style Score can pinpoint good times to build a position in a stock, using factors like one-week price change and the monthly percentage change in earnings estimates.
VGM ScoreIf you want a combination of all three Style Scores, then the VGM Score will be your friend. It rates each stock on their combined weighted styles, helping you find the companies with the most attractive value, best growth forecast, and most promising momentum. It's also one of the best indicators to use with the Zacks Rank.
How Style Scores Work with the Zacks Rank The Zacks Rank, which is a proprietary stock-rating model, employs earnings estimate revisions, or changes to a company's earnings expectations, to make building a winning portfolio easier.
Investors can count on the Zacks Rank's success, with #1 (Strong Buy) stocks producing an unmatched +23.7% average annual return since 1988, more than double the S&P 500's performance. But the model rates a large number of stocks, and there are over 200 companies with a Strong Buy rank, plus another 600 with a #2 (Buy) rank, on any given day.
With more than 800 top-rated stocks to choose from, it can certainly feel overwhelming to pick the ones that are right for you and your investing journey.
That's where the Style Scores come in.
To have the best chance of big returns, you'll want to always consider stocks with a Zacks Rank #1 or #2 that also have Style Scores of A or B, which will give you the highest probability of success. If you're looking at stocks with a #3 (Hold) rank, it's important they have Scores of A or B as well to ensure as much upside potential as possible.
As mentioned above, the Scores are designed to work with the Zacks Rank, so any change to a company's earnings outlook should be a deciding factor when picking which stocks to buy.
A stock with a #4 (Sell) or #5 (Strong Sell) rating, for instance, even one with Scores of A and B, will still have a declining earnings forecast, and a greater chance its share price will fall too.
Thus, the more stocks you own with a #1 or #2 Rank and Scores of A or B, the better.
Stock to Watch: Marathon Petroleum (MPC - Free Report) Findlay, OH-based Marathon Petroleum Corporation is a leading independent refiner, transporter and marketer of petroleum products. The company, in its current form, came into existence following the 2011 spin-off of Houston, TX-based Marathon Oil Corporation’s refining/sales business into a separate, independent and publicly-traded entity. In October 2018, Marathon Oil completed the acquisition of its rival Andeavor in a $23.3 billion deal, thereby becoming the nationwide largest refining company by market capitalization. The deal also made the company the largest U.S. refiner and the fifth largest in the world by capacity.
MPC is a #1 (Strong Buy) on the Zacks Rank, with a VGM Score of A.
Momentum investors should take note of this Oils-Energy stock. MPC has a Momentum Style Score of B, and shares are up 2.4% over the past four weeks.
For fiscal 2026, six analysts revised their earnings estimate upwards in the last 60 days, and the Zacks Consensus Estimate has increased $8.56 to $30.05 per share. MPC boasts an average earnings surprise of +49.5%.
With a solid Zacks Rank and top-tier Momentum and VGM Style Scores, MPC should be on investors' short list.
Marathon Petroleum (MPC - Free Report) closed the most recent trading day at $263.32, moving +2% from the previous trading session. The stock's change was more than the S&P 500's daily loss of 1.62%. Elsewhere, the Dow lost 1.87%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq lost 1.98%.
Coming into today, shares of the refiner had gained 2.44% in the past month. In that same time, the Oils-Energy sector lost 0.59%, while the S&P 500 lost 0.03%.
Analysts and investors alike will be keeping a close eye on the performance of Marathon Petroleum in its upcoming earnings disclosure. The company's earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be $10.84, reflecting a 173.74% increase from the same quarter last year. At the same time, our most recent consensus estimate is projecting a revenue of $34.87 billion, reflecting a 2.24% rise from the equivalent quarter last year.
For the full year, the Zacks Consensus Estimates are projecting earnings of $30.05 per share and revenue of $143.04 billion, which would represent changes of +180.84% and +5.78%, respectively, from the prior year.
Any recent changes to analyst estimates for Marathon Petroleum should also be noted by investors. Recent revisions tend to reflect the latest near-term business trends. Therefore, positive revisions in estimates convey analysts' confidence in the business performance and profit potential.
Empirical research indicates that these revisions in estimates have a direct correlation with impending stock price performance. To utilize this, we have created the Zacks Rank, a proprietary model that integrates these estimate changes and provides a functional rating system.
Ranging from #1 (Strong Buy) to #5 (Strong Sell), the Zacks Rank system has a proven, outside-audited track record of outperformance, with #1 stocks returning an average of +25% annually since 1988. The Zacks Consensus EPS estimate has moved 4.22% higher within the past month. Marathon Petroleum currently has a Zacks Rank of #1 (Strong Buy).
From a valuation perspective, Marathon Petroleum is currently exchanging hands at a Forward P/E ratio of 8.59. Its industry sports an average Forward P/E of 9.48, so one might conclude that Marathon Petroleum is trading at a discount comparatively.
We can also see that MPC currently has a PEG ratio of 0.41. This metric is used similarly to the famous P/E ratio, but the PEG ratio also takes into account the stock's expected earnings growth rate. Oil and Gas - Refining and Marketing stocks are, on average, holding a PEG ratio of 0.37 based on yesterday's closing prices.
The Oil and Gas - Refining and Marketing industry is part of the Oils-Energy sector. With its current Zacks Industry Rank of 17, this industry ranks in the top 7% of all industries, numbering over 250.
The Zacks Industry Rank gauges the strength of our individual industry groups by measuring the average Zacks Rank of the individual stocks within the groups. Our research shows that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1.
Make sure to utilize Zacks.com to follow all of these stock-moving metrics, and more, in the coming trading sessions.
Momentum investing is all about the idea of following a stock's recent trend, which can be in either direction. In the "long context," investors will essentially be "buying high, but hoping to sell even higher." And for investors following this methodology, taking advantage of trends in a stock's price is key; once a stock establishes a course, it is more than likely to continue moving in that direction. The goal is that once a stock heads down a fixed path, it will lead to timely and profitable trades.
Even though momentum is a popular stock characteristic, it can be tough to define. Debate surrounding which are the best and worst metrics to focus on is lengthy, but the Zacks Momentum Style Score, part of the Zacks Style Scores, helps address this issue for us.
Below, we take a look at Marathon Petroleum (MPC - Free Report) , which currently has a Momentum Style Score of B. We also discuss some of the main drivers of the Momentum Style Score, like price change and earnings estimate revisions.
It's also important to note that Style Scores work as a complement to the Zacks Rank, our stock rating system that has an impressive track record of outperformance. Marathon Petroleum currently has a Zacks Rank of #1 (Strong Buy). Our research shows that stocks rated Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) and #2 (Buy) and Style Scores of "A or B" outperform the market over the following one-month period.
You can see the current list of Zacks #1 Rank Stocks here >>>
Set to Beat the Market?Let's discuss some of the components of the Momentum Style Score for MPC that show why this refiner shows promise as a solid momentum pick.
Looking at a stock's short-term price activity is a great way to gauge if it has momentum, since this can reflect both the current interest in a stock and if buyers or sellers have the upper hand at the moment. It is also useful to compare a security to its industry, as this can help investors pinpoint the top companies in a particular area.
For MPC, shares are up 5.32% over the past week while the Zacks Oil and Gas - Refining and Marketing industry is up 3.54% over the same time period. Shares are looking quite well from a longer time frame too, as the monthly price change of 5.7% compares favorably with the industry's 2.11% performance as well.
While any stock can see a spike in price, it takes a real winner to consistently outperform the market. Over the past quarter, shares of Marathon Petroleum have risen 11.45%, and are up 59.89% in the last year. On the other hand, the S&P 500 has only moved 7.44% and 21.61%, respectively.
Investors should also take note of MPC's average 20-day trading volume. Volume is a useful item in many ways, and the 20-day average establishes a good price-to-volume baseline; a rising stock with above average volume is generally a bullish sign, whereas a declining stock on above average volume is typically bearish. Right now MPC is averaging 2,168,600 shares for the last 20 days..
Earnings OutlookThe Zacks Momentum Style Score encompasses many things, including estimate revisions and a stock's price movement. Investors should note that earnings estimates are also significant to the Zacks Rank, and a nice path here can be promising. We have recently been noticing this with MPC.
Over the past two months, 6 earnings estimates moved higher compared to none lower for the full year. These revisions helped boost MPC's consensus estimate, increasing from $21.49 to $30.05 in the past 60 days. Looking at the next fiscal year, 6 estimates have moved upwards while there have been no downward revisions in the same time period.
Bottom LineTaking into account all of these elements, it should come as no surprise that MPC is a #1 (Strong Buy) stock with a Momentum Score of B. If you've been searching for a fresh pick that's set to rise in the near-term, make sure to keep Marathon Petroleum on your short list.
