Key Takeaways MP Materials is favored for stronger long-term growth despite near-term cost pressures.MP's U.S. magnet expansion and government-backed projects strengthen its competitive position.Lynas has commercialized heavy rare earths and secured supply deals with pricing floors. MP Materials (MP - Free Report) and Lynas Rare Earths Limited (LYSDY - Free Report) are among the most prominent players in the global rare earth supply chain and are expected to play key roles in the West’s efforts to secure critical mineral independence and reduce reliance on Chinese supply.
Las Vegas, NV-based MP Materials is the only fully integrated rare earth producer in the United States. It has capabilities covering the entire supply chain, from mining and processing to advanced metallization and magnet manufacturing. MP has a market capitalization of $8 billion. Perth, Australia-based Lynas, valued at around $11.2 billion, engages in the exploration, development, mining, extraction and processing of rare earth minerals in Australia and Malaysia.
Rare earths are crucial to the production of high-performance magnets used in EVs, defense and high-tech applications. For investors looking to tap into the long-term growth of the rare earth sector, the key question is which stock one should bet on — MP or LYSDY. To make an informed decision, let us analyze their fundamentals, growth potential and key challenges.
The Case for MP MaterialsMP Materials owns and operates the Mountain Pass mine in California, the only large-scale rare earth mining and processing facility in North America. It also owns the Independence facility in Fort Worth, TX, where it manufactures magnetic precursor products and began producing neodymium-iron-boron (NdFeB) permanent magnets in December 2025.
The company made significant strategic progress in 2025, including a long-term agreement to supply U.S.-made recycled rare-earth magnets to Apple and a public-private partnership with the U.S. Department of War (DoW) aimed at accelerating a domestic magnet supply chain.
Backed by government incentives, the company is constructing the second domestic magnet manufacturing facility (the 10X Facility) in Northlake, TX, which will lift its total U.S. magnet capacity to 10,000 metric tons. MP is also expanding operations at the Independence facility and scaled heavy rare earth separation commissioning activities are set to begin soon at Mountain Pass.
Operationally, MP continues to scale production and downstream manufacturing capabilities. In first-quarter 2026, the company produced a record 917 metric tons of neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr), up 63% year over year, driven by higher separated-product output. Rare-earth oxide concentrate production also reached a quarterly record of 12,983 metric tons, up 6% year over year due to improved recoveries and operational efficiencies.
Total company revenues rose 49% year over year to $90.6 million in the quarter, supported by stronger performance in both the Materials and Magnetics segments. MP also recognized $42.3 million in income related to its price protection agreement with the DoW.
However, profitability remains under pressure as the company transitions toward higher-value separated rare-earth products and magnetic materials. Cost of sales increased 52% in the quarter, while SG&A expenses rose 39%. Start-up costs surged more than 500% due to magnet production and chlor-alkali facility ramp-ups, while advanced project and development expenses climbed 302%.
MP Materials reported an operating loss of $24 million in the first quarter of 2026 compared with the year-ago loss of $34.8 million. The company reported adjusted earnings of three cents per share against the year-ago quarter’s loss of 12 cents. Looking ahead, the company expects additional cost pressures as production scales. Start-up costs are also likely to increase further in the coming quarters.
The Case for LynasThe company’s operations are anchored by the high-grade Mt Weld mine in Western Australia. Material from Mt Weld is processed at facilities in Kalgoorlie and the Lynas Malaysia advanced materials plant in Kuantan. Lynas is also developing a Heavy Rare Earth (HRE) processing facility in Texas under a U.S. DoW contract.
Lynas achieved a milestone in 2025 with the production of dysprosium oxide (Dy) and terbium oxide (Tb) on the new production line at Lynas Malaysia. It marked the first commercial production of separated HRE for Lynas and also the first production outside China in decades.
Lynas reported NdPr production of 1,996 tons in the third quarter of fiscal 2026 (ended March 31, 2026), representing a 32% year-over-year increase. The company also produced eight tons of dysprosium and terbium during the quarter. In March 2026, the company produced samarium oxide, a month ahead of target. This first production of samarium oxide sets Lynas apart as a commercial producer and supplier of both light and heavy rare earths.
Samarium oxide is in high demand for use in high-performance magnets for electronics and aerospace, as well as optical, catalyst and medical applications. Lynas expects to deliver annual initial production of around 400 tons with more upside, once its additional HRE separation capacity is constructed and operational.
Revenues surged 115% to AUD 265 million ($186 million) for the third quarter of fiscal 2026, driven by higher NdPr and REO volumes and stronger NdPr pricing.
Strategically, Lynas continues to secure long-term demand visibility. In March 2026, the company announced the signing of a binding Letter of Intent to finalize a rare earth oxide supply agreement with the U.S. government. This will support the U.S. industrial base and the U.S. government’s rare earths supply-chain resilience efforts. Per the terms, around $96 million previously allocated to the construction of an HRE facility in Texas will now be used to purchase light and heavy rare earth oxide products from Lynas’ existing facilities over a four-year period. The floor price for the supply of NdPr oxide will be $110 per kg.
The company also signed two important agreements with its Japanese partners, Japan Australia Rare Earths B.V. (“JARE”), which provide firm offtake commitments, pricing floors and exposure to upside pricing. The renewal of Lynas Malaysia’s operating license for 10 years in March 2026 significantly enhances regulatory certainty compared with prior shorter-term renewals.
Having largely completed its Lynas 2025 growth plan, which expanded capacity, improved efficiency and enabled HRE production, the company is now focused on its “Towards 2030” strategy. Its two focal points are optimizing performance from the Lynas 2025 capital investments and expanding its resource and scale, boosting downstream capacity and expanding in the metal and magnet supply chain. Lynas continues to develop partnerships with metal and magnet makers to expand the metal and magnet supply chain.
How do Estimates Compare for MP & LYSDY?The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MP Materials’ fiscal 2026 earnings is pegged at 22 cents per share, indicating a turnaround performance from the loss of 24 cents in 2025. The estimate for MP Materials’ 2027 earnings is pegged at $1.04 per share, implying 373.4% year-over-year growth.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Lynas’ fiscal 2026 earnings (ending June 2026) is pegged at 21 cents per share, indicating a substantial increase from earnings of one cent in fiscal 2025. The fiscal 2027 estimate of 48 cents indicates 129% year-over-year growth.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Both estimates for MP Materials’ 2026 and 2027 have been revised downward over the past 90 days. Estimates for Lynas’ fiscal 2026 have moved down in the past 90 days, while the estimates for fiscal 2027 have moved up. This is shown in the charts below.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
MP vs. LYSDY: Price Performance & ValuationOver the past three months, MP Materials stock has declined 31.2% compared with Lynas’ 19.8% fall.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
MP Materials is currently trading at a forward 12-month price-to-sales ratio of 12.54 while Lynas is trading at a lower 9.53.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
MP Materials or Lynas: Which Stock is the Better Buy?Both MP Materials and Lynas are strategically positioned to benefit from the robust long-term demand outlook for rare earths. MP continues to enhance its competitive position through government-backed initiatives, expanding magnet manufacturing capacity and greater downstream integration, all of which strengthen its long-term growth prospects. However, its ongoing investments and capacity expansion continue to weigh on costs and near-term profitability.
Lynas has executed well operationally, successfully commercializing heavy rare earth production and securing long-term supply agreements with favorable pricing mechanisms. Nevertheless, despite its operational progress, its projected earnings growth lags MP Materials, whose longer-term growth potential remains stronger despite near-term cost pressures.
MP Materials currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), while Lynas has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
LAS VEGAS--(BUSINESS WIRE)---- $MP #rareearth--MP Materials Corp. (NYSE: MP) will release its financial results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2026, after the U.S. markets close on Thursday, August 6, 2026. MP Materials' management will host a conference call and webcast that afternoon at 2:00 p.m. Pacific Time (5:00 p.m. Eastern Time). Prior to the conference call and webcast, MP Materials will issue a press release and post a slide presentation at https://investors.mpmaterials.com/. Conference Call Detai.
Individual investors continue to prove their resilience and maintain their optimism more than halfway through a volatile year for stocks and continued geopolitical uncertainty, according to Investopedia‘s latest reader survey.
Key Takeaways MP's first-quarter 2026 revenues rose 49% to $90.6 million as Materials and Magnetics grew.A $110/kg price floor through 2035 and long-term 10X magnet commitments improve revenue visibility.Rising costs, customer concentration and capital-intensive project ramps keep MP's outlook balanced. MP Materials Corp. (MP - Free Report) is no longer just a Mountain Pass mining story. The company is building a broader rare earth platform that links upstream production with downstream magnets.
That shift gives investors more to consider. Demand visibility is improving, but the same strategy also raises the burden on execution, working capital and margins.
How MP Materials Is Rebuilding the Supply ChainMP controls rare earth production from mining and separation to metal, alloy and magnet manufacturing. Mountain Pass in California anchors the Materials segment, while the Fort Worth, TX, Independence facility supports downstream metal, alloy and magnetic precursor production.
The two assets matter more together as MP moves away from lower-value concentrate sales. The company ceased concentrate sales to Chinese customers in July 2025 and began neodymium-iron-boron permanent magnet manufacturing at Independence in December 2025.
Why MP Stock Has Better Demand VisibilityMP’s story is now shaped by commercial and policy support, not only rare earth pricing. Agreements with the Department of War support the expansion of Independence, the construction of the 10X facility in Northlake, TX, and heavy rare earth refining capability at Mountain Pass.
The framework also includes a $110-per-kilogram price floor for eligible neodymium-praseodymium products through 2035. That protection, combined with long-term magnet purchase commitments tied to 10X, gives MP more visible offtake and partial earnings support.
USA Rare Earth (USAR - Free Report) is another name tied to U.S. rare earth processing and magnet ambitions. Its presence keeps investor attention on the broader domestic supply chain buildout rather than on MP alone.
Where MP Materials is Showing Real Operating ProgressThe first quarter of 2026 showed progress in the transition. Revenues rose 49% year over year to $90.6 million, helped by stronger Materials and Magnetics contributions.
Materials revenues rose 30% to $72.2 million as MP produced a record 917 metric tons of neodymium-praseodymium and sold 1,006 metric tons. Magnetics revenues reached $21 million as higher magnetic precursor output supported the segment.
General Motors (GM - Free Report) remained central to that downstream ramp. MP had sold $87.9 million of magnetic precursor products to General Motors as of March 31, 2026 and expects to complete the remaining $62.1 million commitment within the next year.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MP Materials’ 2026 earnings is pegged at 22 cents per share, indicating an improvement from the loss of 24 cents in 2025. The estimate for 2027 is $1.04 per share, indicating a 372% year-over-year improvement.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
What Could Still Disrupt MP Materials GrowthMP’s transition is technically demanding. Mountain Pass is moving toward heavy rare earth production, Independence is ramping magnet manufacturing and qualification, and 10X still requires construction and commissioning.
Customer concentration also remains a risk. In the first quarter of 2026, two Materials customers accounted for 40% and 24% of total revenues, while General Motors represented 23% through Magnetics.
Costs add another constraint. Cost of sales climbed 52% in the quarter due to higher volumes of neodymium-praseodymium oxide, metal and magnetic precursor products, while start-up costs rose sharply as magnet and chlor-alkali activities ramped.
Shares of MP have declined 18.9% in the past three months compared with the industry’s 9.6% fall.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Albemarle Corporation (ALB - Free Report) , though focused on lithium rather than rare earth magnets, offers a useful comparison for investors watching critical minerals. Commodity exposure, processing costs and capital discipline often shape how markets value producers tied to electrification supply chains.
How MP Signals a Balanced Stock SetupThe bottom line is that MP has a clearer domestic rare earth growth path, but not a simple one. Scale, policy support and downstream integration improve the setup, while qualification risk, customer concentration and elevated investment needs keep the outlook balanced.
MP currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). That rank fits a company with visible catalysts but a near-term profile that still depends on execution across several capital-intensive projects. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
The Style Scores show the same split. MP has a Value Score of F, Growth Score of D, Momentum Score of A and VGM Score of D. The strong Momentum Score points to better sentiment and timing characteristics, but the weak Value, Growth and VGM readings suggest investors should weigh the stock’s improving narrative against an uneven operating and valuation profile.
Key Takeaways MP links Mountain Pass, Independence and 10X to build a domestic rare earth supply chain.Policy support boosts demand visibility through price protection, incentives and long-term offtake.Rising costs, working-capital needs and unfinished ramps keep MP's margin outlook uncertain. MP Materials Corp. (MP - Free Report) sits near the center of a U.S. push to localize rare earth processing and magnet manufacturing. The investor question is no longer limited to mine output.
The bigger issue is whether MP can turn strategic relevance into repeatable earnings power while it builds a domestic supply chain.
Why MP Materials Fits the Reshoring TrendMP’s model fits reshoring because it spans more than mining. The company owns Mountain Pass in California, the only rare earth mine and processing site of scale in North America, and operates the Independence facility in Fort Worth, TX.
Mountain Pass supports mining, concentration and separation. Independence produces rare earth metal, alloy and magnetic precursor products, while the planned 10X campus in Northlake, TX, would add more domestic magnet capacity.
Albemarle Corporation (ALB - Free Report) , a lithium and specialty chemicals producer, gives investors another way to view processing depth in strategic materials. Cameco Corporation (CCJ - Free Report) , a uranium and nuclear fuel company, reflects interest in secure energy supply chains.
How MP is Moving Beyond Commodity ExposureMP is moving away from a simpler concentrate sales model. It stopped rare earth concentrate sales to Chinese customers in July 2025 and now focuses Materials segment revenues mainly on neodymium-praseodymium oxide and metal.
That shift matters because value creation increasingly depends on processing depth. In the first quarter of 2026, Materials revenues rose to $72.2 million, while neodymium-praseodymium oxide and metal revenues reached $71.1 million.
The downstream transition is also taking shape. Independence began generating revenues from magnetic precursor sales to General Motors in the first quarter of 2025 and started neodymium-iron-boron permanent magnet manufacturing in December 2025.
What Policy Support Means for MP GrowthPolicy support has become central to MP’s growth setup. The company entered definitive agreements with the United States Department of War in July 2025 to support a domestic rare earth magnet supply chain.
Those agreements call for expansion of Independence, construction of the 10X facility and extension of heavy rare earth refining capability at Mountain Pass. The Department of War agreed to purchase magnets from 10X, or approve commercial syndication, and guaranteed a minimum EBITDA level for that plant.
MP also implemented a price protection agreement in the fourth quarter of 2025 with a $110-per-kilogram floor for eligible neodymium-praseodymium products through 2035. The Northlake project is supported by roughly $200 million in state and local incentives and a 10-year Pentagon offtake commitment.
This support can improve demand visibility and reduce downside. It also adds contractual obligations, approval requirements and dependence on government program execution.
Why MP Materials Faces a Tougher Margin EquationThe domestic buildout brings costs that investors cannot ignore. MP has reported operating losses for 11 consecutive quarters as it shifts toward higher-value separated products.
Cost of sales climbed 52% in the first quarter of 2026 because of higher volumes of neodymium-praseodymium oxide, metal and magnetic precursor products. These products carry higher per-unit costs than rare earth concentrates because they require chemical reagents, labor, maintenance and other consumables.
Operating expenses are also rising. Selling, general and administrative expenses increased 39.2% in the first quarter, mainly because of higher personnel costs. Start-up costs surged 503% as magnet production and chlor-alkali facilities ramped.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MP Materials’ 2026 earnings is pegged at 22 cents per share, indicating an improvement from the loss of 24 cents in 2025. The estimate for 2027 is $1.04 per share, indicating a 372% year-over-year improvement.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
However, both the estimates have been revised downward, as shown in the chart below.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Working capital remains part of the equation. Higher trade receivables, inventory needs and deferred revenues show that cash conversion depends on timely shipment, qualification and customer acceptance across newer product lines.
Shares of MP have declined 18.9% in the past three months against the industry’s 9.6% fall.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
How MP Scores Reflect a Trend-Driven TradeMP’s reshoring appeal is real, but the stock setup remains mixed. The company has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), which fits a business with policy support, improving operating traction and meaningful execution risk. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
The Style Scores show the same split. MP has a Momentum Score of A, suggesting stronger market interest around the theme and recent estimate activity. Its Value Score of F and Growth Score of D point to caution on valuation and fundamental consistency.
The VGM Score of D reinforces that this is not a clean across-the-board setup. MP looks more like a trend-driven stock that still needs proof of durable margins, smooth qualification and reliable downstream scale than a high-conviction buy at any price.
MP Marerials' operating gains and strong liquidity support its rare earth buildout, but a premium valuation and unfinished project ramps favor patience.
Key Takeaways MP Materials signed agreements to expand magnet production, refining and a second manufacturing facility.MP secured DoW support, including magnet purchases, EBITDA backing and NdPr price floor protection.MP has long-term supply deals with Apple and General Motors to support magnet production and sales. MP Materials (MP - Free Report) is steadily building an integrated domestic rare earth supply chain spanning mining, refining, metal production and magnet manufacturing. This strategy aligns closely with U.S. national priorities to localize production of critical materials used in electric vehicles, defense systems, robotics and advanced manufacturing.
A major step in this strategy came in July 2025, when MP Materials entered into definitive agreements with the United States Department of War (DoW) to accelerate the build-out of an end-to-end U.S. rare earth magnet supply chain. Under the agreement, the company will expand its Independence Facility, construct its second magnet manufacturing facility in Northlake, TX (known as the 10X Facility) and boost its heavy rare earth elements (HREE) refining capability at Mountain Pass.
Per the DoW Offtake Agreement, the department has guaranteed that the 10X Facility will generate at least $140 million of EBITDA and has committed to purchase all magnets produced at the facility, unless those volumes are commercially syndicated with DoD approval. MP Materials also entered into a price floor protection agreement with the DoW for the neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) products produced at Mountain Pass that are sold or produced and stockpiled starting in the fourth quarter of 2025.
MP Materials estimates more than $1.25 billion for the 10X projects, supported by approximately $200 million of state and local incentive packages, as well as a 10-year magnet offtake agreement with the DoW. The 10X Facility is expected to begin commissioning in 2028. On completion, it will produce an estimated 7,000 metric tons (MTs) of magnets per year. Combined with Independence Facility’s 3,000 MTs per year of magnets, the company’s overall U.S. rare earth magnet annual production capacity will expand to an estimated 10,000 MTs.
The company is also securing long-term commercial customers alongside government support. MP Materials entered into a definitive, long-term supply agreement with Apple (AAPL - Free Report) in July 2025 for the development, manufacture and supply of magnets from its Independence Facility, as well as the development and installation of scaled recycling capabilities at Mountain Pass to produce the contained rare earths from post-industrial and post-consumer recycled rare earth feedstocks. In connection with the agreement and subject to achieving specified milestones, Apple agreed to make prepayments in the aggregate amount of $200 million for the purchase of magnets from the company.
In April 2022, MP Materials entered into a long-term agreement with General Motors (GM - Free Report) to supply magnets and precursor products manufactured at the Independence Facility. The Magnetics segment began generating revenues from the sales of magnetic precursor products to General Motors in the first quarter of 2025. As of March 31, 2026, the company had sold $87.9 million of magnetic precursor products to General Motors and expects to complete the remaining $62.1 million commitment within the next year. Following the fulfillment of this agreement, the company anticipates transitioning to sales of finished magnets to General Motors, which are expected to begin in 2026.
Energy Fuels (UUUU - Free Report) is pursuing a similar strategy to capitalize on the growing emphasis on domestic critical mineral supply chains. In addition to its uranium business, Energy Fuels has been expanding its rare earth operations. Energy Fuels recently secured a conditional commitment for up to $725 million in financing from the U.S. Office of Strategic Capital. The financing is intended to support the expansion of critical mineral processing capabilities at the company's White Mesa Mill in Utah and the development of a rare earth metals and alloys manufacturing facility in the United States. Energy Fuels has also announced the acquisition of VAC Group, which would significantly strengthen its downstream magnet manufacturing capabilities.
MP’s Price Performance, Valuation & EstimatesMP Materials’ shares have declined 24.6% over the past six months compared with the industry’s 0.5% dip.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
MP is trading at a forward 12-month price/sales multiple of 14.61X, a significant premium to the industry’s 1.59X.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MP Materials’ 2026 earnings is pegged at 22 cents per share, indicating an improvement from the loss of 24 cents in 2025. The estimate for 2027 is $1.04 per share, indicating a 372% year-over-year improvement.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The revision activity for 2026 and 2027 estimates is shown in the chart below.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Key Takeaways MP trades at 15.20X forward sales, above the industry's 1.49X, while shares fell 14.7% in six months.First-quarter revenues rose 49% to $90.6M, but higher costs kept MP in its 11th operating-loss quarter.MP is expanding Independence and building 10X to lift annual NdFeB magnet capacity to about 10,000 tons. MP Materials (MP - Free Report) is trading at a forward 12-month price/sales multiple of 15.20X, well above the industry average of 1.49X. The stock also carries a Value Score of F, suggesting it is expensive at current levels.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Among rare earth peers, USA Rare Earth, Inc. (USAR - Free Report) trades at a steeper 39.51X, while Lynas Rare Earths Limited (LYSDY - Free Report) appears relatively more reasonably valued at 10.22X.
MP Materials Stock Trails Industry PerformanceMP Materials shares have declined 14.7% over the past six months, significantly lagging the industry’s 8.5% growth. The Zacks Basic Materials sector gained 3.8% while the S&P 500 rose 8%. Over this period, Lynas Rare Earths and USA Rare Earth have gained 19.6% and 11.4%, respectively.
MP's 6-Month Performance Against Industry, Sector, S&P 500 & Peers
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
MP Materials continues to trade at a substantial premium even as its shares have lagged the industry. Examining its latest financial results, operational execution, growth catalysts and key challenges can help assess whether that premium remains justified.
MP Delivered Revenue Growth in Q1, Costs Remain ElevatedMP Materials generated first-quarter 2026 total revenues of $90.6 million, up 49% year over year. The company also recognized $42.3 million in income related to a price protection agreement (PPA) with the Department of War (DoW).
Revenues from the Materials segment increased 30% year over year to $72.2 million, on stronger NdPr pricing and sales. The Magnetics segment contributed $21 million in revenues, reflecting increased production of magnetic precursor products. In the year-ago quarter, the segment generated $5.2 million in revenues from its first metal deliveries.
Cost of sales climbed 52% due to higher sales volumes while selling, general and administrative expenses rose 39.2% due to increased personnel costs. Start-up costs surged 503%, reflecting the ramp-up of start-up activities related to magnet production and chlor-alkali facilities. Advanced projects and development expenses spiked 302% due to higher costs incurred for legal, consulting and advisory services to support growth initiatives.
Due to the surge in costs, MP Materials reported an operating loss of $24 million in the quarter compared with the year-ago operating loss of $34.8 million. This was the 11th consecutive quarter of operating loss for the company, reflecting ongoing margin pressure as it continues transitioning toward higher-value separated rare earth products. The company posted adjusted earnings of three cents per share against the year-ago quarter’s loss of 12 cents.
Producing separated rare earth products and magnetic materials involves significantly higher costs than concentrate production, due to additional processing requirements, chemical inputs, labor and maintenance. Cost of sales is, thus, expected to trend higher, reflecting increased sales of NdPr oxide and metal, along with added costs associated with magnetic precursor products. Start-up costs are also likely to increase further in the coming quarters.
MP Materials Scales Production Across OperationsMP Materials reported record production of 917 metric tons of NdPr during the first quarter, up 63% year over year, driven by continued expansion of separated rare earth production. The company also achieved a record 12,983 metric tons of rare earth oxide (REO) concentrate production, representing a 6% increase from the prior-year period, supported by improved recoveries and operational efficiencies. At the same time, production of magnetic precursor products continues to ramp up at the Independence facility.
MP’s Earnings Estimates Trend Lower Reflecting CautionThe Zacks Consensus Estimate for MP Materials’ 2026 earnings stands at 16 cents per share, reflecting a turnaround from the projected loss of 24 cents in 2025. The 2027 estimate is currently pegged at $1.06 per share, implying growth of 562.5%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Earnings estimates for both 2026 and 2027 have been revised downward over the past 90 days.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
MP Materials Advances Capacity ExpansionThe company is expanding operations at its Independence facility and has begun construction of the 10X magnetics facility. Commissioning activities for scaled heavy rare earth separation are also expected to begin soon at Mountain Pass. 10X will significantly expand MP’s fully integrated U.S. rare-earth magnetics manufacturing platform, which already encompasses mining and refining, metallization and alloying, sintering, finished magnet production and closed loop recycling. Once operational, the new campus is expected to contribute to the company’s total production capacity of approximately 10,000 metric tons of NdFeB rare-earth magnets per year, advancing the nation’s ability to produce these strategic components domestically.
Our Final Take on MP StockMP Materials remains well-positioned to benefit from the growing demand for domestically produced rare earth materials and magnets, supported by its integrated business model, expanding production capabilities and significant long-term capacity investments. These strengths make the company an attractive long-term holding for existing shareholders.
However, prospective investors may prefer to wait for a more attractive entry point given the stock’s premium valuation, rising operating and start-up costs, and recent downward revisions to earnings estimates. MP currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
The decline in MP Materials (MP 1.86%) stock in June comes down to China, but perhaps not in the way you might think. The stock fell 13.4% in June, according to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence, with much of the decline occurring after China added MP Materials to its list of companies subject to export controls. Here's the lowdown.
MP Materials and China The company's exposure to political risk around China is multifaceted. On the one hand, it has substantive upside potential from ongoing geopolitical tension with the country. After all, it's the need to diversify the U.S. away from reliance on rare earth materials and magnets from China that's largely behind the U.S. government's support for the company.
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And that support is a key part of the stock's investment case. As part of the partnership agreed last summer, the Department of Defense invested $400 million in the company, provided a $150 million loan, and assisted banks in arranging $1 billion in financing. On top of all of this, the DoD entered a 10-year pricing floor agreement for MP Materials products and "agreed to ensure that 100% of the magnets produced at the 10X Facility will be purchased by defense and commercial customers with shared upside."
These actions secured the company's future and financial position, allowing investment to proceed in its 10X facility being built in Northlake, Texas.
That strengthening of its financial position and ability to service customers encouraged Apple to sign a $500 million long-term supply agreement, therefore ensuring a key American business has access to domestically sourced and produced rare earth magnets.
Image source: Getty Images.
The downside risk from China While MP Materials doesn't directly buy or sell to China, the country's export products blacklist does impact it significantly. The export ban doesn't only apply to direct exports from China to MP Materials, it also applies to companies who then sell Chinese products to MP Materials.
In addition, if, say, a rare earth processing equipment company uses Chinese-made components and then sells the finished product to MP Materials, it may be banned from doing so by the Chinese government. Given China's dominance in rare earth materials and magnet production and its pre-eminence in global manufacturing, it's highly likely that the ban will impact MP Materials.
As such, being on the export blacklist has significant secondary ramifications for MP Materials, which is why investor enthusiasm for the stock cooled in June.
Lee Samaha has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends MP Materials. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Key Takeaways MP Materials' Materials segment saw revenue growth and improved profitability in first-quarter 2026.NdPr production hit a record 1,006 metric tons, up 117%, crossing the 1,000-ton mark for the first time.Adjusted EBITDA surged 877% to $36.7 million, helped by higher revenues and PPA income. MP Materials’ (MP - Free Report) first-quarter 2026 results underscore the success of its efforts to expand neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) production, with the Materials business delivering strong operational execution, revenue growth and improved profitability.
The Materials segment represents the upstream and midstream operations of the company, anchored by Mountain Pass, its fully integrated mining and refining facility producing refined rare earth oxides and related products. The segment now derives most of its revenues from NdPr oxide and metal sales, reflecting MP Materials’ strategic shift toward higher-value products. Historically, rare earth concentrate sales accounted for the bulk of segment revenues. However, after halting shipments to Chinese customers in July 2025, the company began processing the concentrate into separated rare earth products or stockpiling it for future use.
NdPr production was a record 1,006 metric tons in the quarter, 117% higher year over year and also marked the first time the company crossed the 1,000-ton threshold. NdPr sales volumes also reached a record 917 metric tons, up 63% from the prior-year quarter.
This robust production and sales growth boosted the Materials segment’s financial performance. Total revenues climbed 30% year over year to $72.2 million. This was driven by a 192% increase in NdPr oxide revenues on higher sales volumes and stronger market pricing.
MP Materials also achieved record production of 12,983 MT of rare earth oxides (REO) in concentrate during the quarter, marking a 6% year-over-year increase. The absence of REO concentrate sales was offset by higher NdPr oxide revenues.
The Materials segment reported adjusted EBITDA of $36.7 million, which marked an 877% surge from the year-ago quarter. This was attributed to higher revenues and Price Protection Agreement (PPA) income of $42.3 million related to the agreement with the Department of War (DoW), despite higher cost of sales in the quarter.
The first-quarter 2026 performance builds on the strong momentum established in 2025. During the year, the segment sold 1,994 metric tons of NdPr, up 75% year over year. The Mountain Pass operations produced a record 2,599 MT of NdPr in 2025, more than double the 1,294 MT produced in 2024. The increase reflects continued process optimization and ongoing production ramp-up efforts.
Australia-based peer Lynas Rare Earths Limited (LYSDY - Free Report) reported NdPr production of 1,996 tons in the third quarter of fiscal 2026 (ended March 31, 2026), representing a 32% year-over-year increase. Lynas Rare Earths also produced eight tons of dysprosium and terbium during the quarter. Lynas Rare Earths’ revenues jumped 115% year over year to AUD 265 million ($183 million), the highest quarterly figure since the fourth quarter of fiscal 2022. This was driven by an increase in the NdPr price and sales volume and higher sales volume of total REO products.
MP’s Price Performance, Valuation & EstimatesMP Materials’ shares have gained 65.1% in a year compared with the industry’s 40.7% growth. Peers Lynas Rare Earths and Energy Fuels Inc. (UUUU - Free Report) have gained 123.9% and 154%, respectively.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
MP is trading at a forward 12-month price/sales multiple of 15.77X, a significant premium to the industry’s 1.49X. Energy Fuels and Lynas Rare Earths are trading at 19.86X and 10.68X, respectively.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MP Materials’ 2026 earnings is pegged at 16 cents per share, indicating an improvement from the loss of 24 cents in 2025. The estimate for 2027 is $1.06 per share, indicating a 562.5% year-over-year improvement.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The estimate for both 2026 and 2027 has, however, moved down in the past 60 days, as shown in the chart below.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Critical minerals are crucial for modern technology. These materials are essential for everything from smartphones to clean energy systems to modern defense platforms. Research from The Motley Fool shows that China controls a significant share of the supply chain for mining and processing critical minerals, which could pose a national security threat due to supply disruptions or trade disputes.
Because of their importance, the U.S. is seeking to secure its supply of critical minerals and rare-earth elements, and MP Materials (MP +1.57%) is one company leading the way. Last year, the U.S. producer of rare-earth materials entered a historic deal with the government. For investors considering MP Materials, here are two reasons to buy the stock and one reason to sell.
Image source: Getty Images.
Reason No. 1 to buy: MP's Mountain Pass mine gives it a first-mover advantage MP Materials owns and operates the Mountain Pass mine in California, which is one of the world's richest rare-earth deposits and the only active rare-earth mine in the United States. The mine is a high-grade deposit with a total rare-earth element concentration of approximately 7% to 9%.
The company also leverages a vertically integrated business model, from upstream mining and raw material refining to downstream metallization and alloying. MP's processing capabilities enable it to produce large volumes of rare-earth oxide concentrate, as well as separated neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) oxide and metal, which are essential raw materials for high-powered permanent magnets used in electric vehicle motors, military guidance systems, and artificial intelligence data centers.
With its mining operations and integrated business model, MP Materials has a first-mover advantage in the domestic "mine-to-magnet" supply chain.
Reason No. 2 to buy: MP has a historic deal with the U.S. government Last year, MP Materials entered into a landmark public-private partnership with the U.S. government. As part of the deal, the U.S. has become MP Materials' largest shareholder through a $400 million convertible preferred equity investment.
The deal includes a 10-year Price Protection Agreement (PPA) that establishes a guaranteed price floor of $110 per kilogram for the company's NdPr products produced at Mountain Pass. This price floor provides MP with predictable revenue while protecting it from predatory pricing strategies by state-subsidized foreign competitors who could flood the market with cheap material.
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Investors saw the effect of this arrangement first-hand in MP Materials' first-quarter earnings report, when its price protection agreement income boosted earnings by $42.3 million. In the quarter, MP achieved a record NdPr production of 917 metric tons, while sales increased 49% to $90.6 million. As a result, MP's adjusted EBITDA improved to $36.6 million, up from its $2.7 billion loss last year.
Reason to sell: Scaling up its domestic processing capabilities will take significant time and capital MP Materials has the infrastructure to mine and process critical minerals, but it must continue to expand to meet growing demand for domestically sourced materials. As part of this, the company will construct a "10X" rare-earth magnet manufacturing campus in Northlake, Texas. The 10X facility is designed to scale total production capacity to roughly 10,000 metric tons of finished NdFeB magnets annually, with commercial commissioning projected to commence in 2028.
MP Materials estimates that developing the 10X project will require roughly $1.25 billion. While the project is partially subsidized by government assistance, the company still has to borrow funds, and the capital intensity will likely strain cash flow during development. Any delays in the build-out could affect its projected growth. Not only that, but if trade relations with China materially improve, the need to develop domestically sourced critical minerals may be de-emphasized by regulators in the U.S.
In the months following MP Materials' deal with the U.S. government, the stock surged to $100 per share. However, enthusiasm for the stock has waned, and it is now 46% off its 52-week high. The stock is priced at around 54 times its projected 2027 earnings and could be vulnerable to any struggles in ramping up production or expanding margins.
Investors should be aware of the risks associated with owning MP Materials. That said, the company has a first-mover advantage in the domestic critical minerals space, and the agreement with the U.S. government provides it with a unique backstop that helps secure future revenue. If you're bullish on the build-out of the domestic mine-to-magnet supply chains, MP Materials is a top stock to own today.
MP Materials (MP 3.09%) provides essential elements for electric vehicles and defense technology, while Sherwin-Williams (SHW +1.47%)dominates the architectural and industrial coatings market. It’s a choice between the high-growth potential of critical mineral security and the steady cash flows of a global paint leader.
This comparison explores whether a speculative play on domestic supply chains or a proven dividend payer is the better buy for your portfolio.
The case for MP MaterialsMP Materials focuses on the full lifecycle of rare-earth elements, from mining at its California site to processing and magnet manufacturing in Texas. The company already has a list of high-profile customers waiting to buy its magnets, including General Motors (GM 0.55%), Apple (AAPL +3.37%), and the U.S. Department of Defense (rebranded as the Department of War).
In FY 2025, revenue grew 35% to $275.5 million, but MP Materials still reported a net loss of nearly $85.9 million as it continues to invest in scaling its complex separation and magnet manufacturing facilities to align with domestic supply chain goals.
As of its December 2025 balance sheet, the debt-to-equity ratio, which measures total debt relative to shareholder equity, is approximately 0.4x. The current ratio, a measure of how easily a company can pay its short-term debts with its short-term assets, stands at a robust 7.2x. Free cash flow, which is the cash remaining after a company pays for its capital expenditures, was negative $328.1 million in 2025.
The case for Sherwin-WilliamsSherwin-Williams operates a massive network of nearly 4,900 company-owned stores, selling paints and coatings to professional contractors and DIY customers. Its business is highly diversified across its Paint Stores, Consumer Brands, and Performance Coatings segments. No single customer accounts for more than 10% of total sales, providing a stable foundation for its global distribution logistics and freight partnerships.
In FY 2025, revenue grew around 2% to $23.6 billion. The company remains highly profitable, ending the year with a net income of $2.6 billion. While sales growth has been modest, a net margin of nearly 10.9% indicates the company is effective at turning its multi-billion dollar revenue into actual profit.
As of its December 2025 balance sheet, the debt-to-equity ratio is roughly 3.2x. This ratio indicates that total liabilities are significantly higher than shareholder equity. The current ratio stands at approximately 0.9x, while free cash flow reached nearly $2.7 billion. This substantial cash generation allows the company to fund dividends and integrate acquisitions even while carrying a higher debt load.
Risk profile comparisonFurthermore, the global rare earth market is dominated by Chinese competitors who benefit from state-sponsored advantages and the ability to disrupt supply chains. MP Materials also faces risks related to its reliance on the U.S. Department of War agreements and its ability to meet production targets at its 10X Facility. The company recently filed a lawsuit against USA Rare Earth (USAR 0.92%) over proprietary technology, accusing it of poaching employees and obtaining sensitive technology information.
Sherwin-Williams is currently navigating a class-action lawsuit in California regarding alleged labor law violations, which could result in financial liabilities. The company must also manage the integration of large acquisitions like Suvinil in Brazil and handle volatility in raw material costs driven by energy prices. Because its sales are tied to the housing and construction sectors, elevated interest rates and inflation could continue to dampen demand for its products.
Valuation comparisonSherwin-Williams offers a valuation much closer to the broader market average, while MP Materials trades at a significant premium based on future earnings estimates.
MetricMP MaterialsSherwin-WilliamsSector BenchmarkForward P/E260.9x27.4x26.3xP/S ratio39.2x3.4xn/aSector benchmark uses the SPDR XLB sector ETF.
Valuation metrics sourced from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP) and may differ from other data providers.
Which stock would I buy in 2026?Sherwin-Williams is a 160-year-old company with a massive footprint in the paints and coatings industry. It owns more than 5,000 stores and branches, and its namesake brand is among the most popular in the industry.
It’s a slow-growth business by nature, but Sherwin-Williams has grown its sales at an annualized rate of 5% and adjusted earnings per share at an annualized rate of 6.9% over the past five years. Because Sherwin-Williams enjoys strong pricing power and can often pass higher costs on to consumers, it generates strong margins and has raised its dividend for 47 consecutive years.
MP Materials, on the other hand, is a young company founded in 2017. It has, however, positioned itself as a national security asset thanks to its rare-earth operations. Rare earths are critical elements for various industries, including semiconductors, electronics, electric vehicles, renewable energy technology, defense systems, lasers, and medical devices. Under the leadership of President Donald Trump, the U.S. government is making major moves to boost the rare-earth industry and reduce reliance on China.
MP Materials’ Mountain Pass is the largest rare-earth mine in the U.S. The U.S. government owns a 15% stake in the company and has committed to buying all the rare-earth magnets produced at the 10X facility for 10 years at a set floor price. MP Materials also has other collaborations with the government and contracts with some big companies like Apple. The company is setting itself up as a rare-earth ore-to-magnet giant and growing production and revenues.
If I were to buy one stock today, I’d invest in MP Materials simply because of the significance of rare earths and the industry’s growth potential under the Trump administration. MP Materials stock has already run a lot, but it still has the potential to deliver explosive returns that a mature, established player like Sherwin-Williams rarely can.
Rare-earth metals are in short supply, and most of that supply is controlled by China. Because of the vital role these metals play in the technology sector, companies like MP Materials (MP 3.09%) and TMC The Metals Company (TMC 4.28%) are seeking to capitalize on the unusual supply and-demand dynamics and build rare-earth metals businesses. For most investors, MP Materials will be the safer bet. Here's why.
Why are rare-earth metals a problem? China has repeatedly shown its willingness to use access to rare-earth metals as a geopolitical bargaining chip. Supply concerns have led companies that you might not expect to warn of production delays, for example, automakers. However, rare-earth metals play a vital role in everything from your cellphone to missile defense systems. Countries don't want to be beholden to China for their self-defense needs.
Image source: Getty Images.
The issue is so important that the U.S. government has provided financial support to rare-earth metal companies as they expand their operations. MP Materials is one such firm. However, this isn't the only way that the United States has been supporting the sector, as it has also made regulatory changes to ease the way for companies like The Metals Company to further their development efforts.
As an investor, however, there is a dramatic difference between MP Materials and The Metals Company. Even if both companies eventually end up big winners, The Metals Company is a much riskier bet right now.
Why The Metals Company is so risky At this point, The Metals Company generates no revenue. Its income statement starts with two expenses: general and administrative expenses and exploration and evaluation expenses. General and administrative expenses are the basic costs of running a business. However, exploration and evaluation costs are a bit more interesting because they highlight that The Metals Company hasn't yet begun developing the rare-earth metals production business it hopes to build.
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There's a good reason for that. The Metals Company is looking to develop a deep-sea mine, which is both expensive and complex. There's no exact timeline for when it will even begin developing a mining operation. The permitting process isn't expected to be over until early 2027. The company is likely to lose money for the foreseeable future.
None of this is shocking. The Metals Company is a start-up attempting to do something unique and difficult. However, most investors should probably wait until there's more progress toward actually producing rare-earth metals before investing. You may have to give up some potential gains, but waiting also means you avoid the risk that the company falls short of its lofty goals.
Why MP Materials is a safer rare-earth metals bet MP Materials is in a totally different position as a business. It has an operating rare-earth metals mine and operating rare-earth metals processing assets. So while The Metals Company is still attempting to build a rare-earth metals business, MP Materials has already surmounted that very significant hurdle. The company generated $90 million in revenue and generated adjusted earnings of $0.03 per share in the first quarter of 2026.
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To be fair, MP Materials is still losing money on a GAAP basis. The adjusted earnings figure excludes certain items, such as initial start-up costs, which seems a bit odd. Still, MP Materials is clearly much further along in its development as a business. That makes it a safer bet for investors looking to invest in rare-earth metals.
Carefully assess your risk profile before buying Every investment involves a trade-off between risk and reward. Take on more risk, and you may end up with more reward, but you could also end up with a company that flames out. The Metals Company is so early in its development as a rare-earth metals business that the risk is unlikely to be worth it for most investors. MP Materials, on the other hand, is already up and running. And, on an adjusted basis, it is profitable. There's risk in owning MP Materials, which is still a start-up, but it looks like the safer bet in the rare-earth metals space right now.
Rare-earth metals are in high demand. The supply of these metals, however, is constrained. And that supply is largely controlled by a single country, China. There is a huge opportunity for companies like TMC The Metals Company (TMC 4.28%), USA Rare Earth (USAR 0.92%), and MP Materials (MP 3.04%) to build rare-earth metals businesses.
Here's why these companies could create material wealth for investors. And why the risk profiles are vastly different between each of these rare-earth metals stocks.
Image source: Getty Images.
The size of the rare-earth problem The problem in the rare-earth metals market is highlighted by an event that took place in 2010. That year, China's decision to limit rare-earth metal exports led to a 10x increase in their prices in Japan. Notably, rare-earth metals are used in products ranging from cellphones to missile defense systems. So they are vital to modern technology and to a country's self-defense. With China clearly willing to use rare-earth metals as a geopolitical bargaining chip and the impact they can have on prices, countries are keen to find alternative supply sources.
China is not the only issue. Rare-earth metals are also used in the construction of solar and wind power projects. Electricity demand is expected to increase 60% between 2025 and 2045. New technologies like artificial intelligence (AI), which is particularly power hungry, and electric vehicles are going to be important drivers of electricity demand. Renewable power is going to be a big part of the growth story, which means rare-earth metals are also important for the power grid. All in, the International Energy Agency (IEA) expects demand for rare-earth metals to increase by 50% to 60% by 2040.
There is no easy solution, and a huge opportunity The bad news is that building a mining business is difficult and costly. The good news is that there are two sources of opportunity: supply diversification away from China and meeting expected demand. Companies like The Metals Company, USA Rare Earth, and MP Materials are building businesses to capitalize on both rare-earth metals opportunities, giving investors a chance to jump aboard. All three could be big winners, but they have very different risk profiles.
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The Metals Company is the riskiest of the three, but it could have the most long-term opportunity. The company is attempting to build an undersea mining operation. It is nowhere near that goal, but the U.S. government is changing regulations to accelerate the company's progress. However, the company is losing money and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future until it actually produces rare-earth metals. Only the most aggressive investors should consider buying it.
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USA Rare Earth is also losing money, but it has used acquisitions to quickly build a rare-earth metals processing business. Unlike The Metals Company, USA Rare Earth generates revenues. The next big step is for the company to build a rare-earth metals mine, which is the plan. The U.S. government is also involved here, providing funding for the company's development. The only problem is that the proposed mine isn't expected to produce rare-earth metals until 2028.
That said, USA Rare Earth has inked a deal to buy a Brazilian rare-earth metal mine that is already producing material, with the deal expected to close in the back half of 2026. So the company is on the verge of having a complete end-to-end rare-earth metals business. But investors need to appreciate the aggressive acquisition-driven approach before buying into this rare-earth stock.
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MP Materials has also received funding from the U.S. government. However, it is differentiated in two ways from the other rare-earth stocks here. First, the company operates a mine that produces rare-earth metals and processing facilities. It already has the complete package. Second, on an adjusted basis, the company is generating positive earnings. It is still early in the company's development, but MP Materials is the furthest along in the start-up process.
Big opportunities and big risks Could investors get rich by investing in The Metals Company, USA Rare Earth, and MP Materials? The story is very strong, from supply concentration risks to demand for these vital materials. But these are still start-up businesses, and only one is making a profit on an adjusted basis. Only the most aggressive investors should consider these stocks. And even then, you might want to tread with caution, sticking to USA Rare Earth and MP Materials, which are both far more developed businesses.
Rare earths stock MP Materials Corp (NYSE:MP) has had a volatile year, though still sporting a 9.8% year to date gain. Most recently, the shares have pulled back to support at the $55 region, as well as the 320-day moving average, a historically bullish trendline.
According to Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White, MP is trading within 0.75 times the 320-day moving average's 20-day average true range (ATR), after spending at least 80% of the previous two weeks and 80% of the prior 42 trading sessions above that trendline. This setup has appeared four times over the last decade, after which the stock was higher one month later 100% of the time, averaging a large 12.2% gain. A similar move from the stock's current perch at $55.45 would rise to $62.21.
Short covering could provide an added tailwind, as short interest represents 19.6% of the stock's available float. It would take shorts nearly five days to buy back their bearish bets, at MP's average pace of trading. Plus, the stock sits in "oversold" territory, per its 14-day relative strength index (RSI) of 27.
Key Takeaways MP Materials' first-quarter 2026 revenues rose 49% as NdPr production and sales reached records.MP reported no rare earth oxides sales after discontinuing such sales in July 2025.The Magnetics segment generated $21.1 million in revenues, driven by precursor sales to GM. MP Materials (MP - Free Report) began 2026 on a solid note, reporting first-quarter 2026 revenues of $90.6 million, up 49% from $60.8 million in the prior-year quarter. The company also benefited from a $42.3 million contribution under its price protection agreement (PPA) with the U.S. Department of War (DoW), taking consolidated revenues to $132.9 million for the quarter.
The robust performance was driven by the continued expansion of higher-value neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) products. MP achieved record NdPr production of 917 metric tons, up 63% year over year, while NdPr sales surged 117% to another record 1,006 metric tons. The company did not generate rare earth oxides (REO) sales during the quarter, reflecting its decision to cease sales into the Chinese market in July 2025.
The company now processes the concentrate into separate rare earth products or stockpiles it for future use. Despite the absence of concentrate sales, the Materials segment generated revenues of $72.2 million in the first quarter, up 30% year over year, driven by stronger NdPr sales volumes and pricing,
The company’s Magnetics segment has also emerged as an important revenue contributor. It generated $21.1 million of revenues in the first quarter, supported by the sale of magnetic precursor products under the long-term supply agreement with General Motors (GM - Free Report) . The segment had made its first delivery to General Motors in the first quarter of 2025, which led to $5.2 million in revenues.
As of March 31, 2026, the company had sold $87.9 million of magnetic precursor products to General Motors and expects to complete the remaining $62.1 million commitment within the next year. Following the fulfillment of this agreement, the company anticipates transitioning to sales of finished magnets to General Motors, which are expected to begin in 2026.
Looking ahead, several initiatives could support future revenue growth. The company recently stated that it advanced key growth initiatives, such as expanding operations at Independence and breaking ground on the 10X magnetics facility, its second domestic rare earth magnet manufacturing facility. Meanwhile, scaled heavy rare earth separation commissioning activities are set to begin soon at Mountain Pass.
Among industry peers, Lynas Rare Earths (LYSDY - Free Report) also reported impressive growth, with third-quarter fiscal 2026 (ended March 31, 2026) revenues jumping 115% year over year to AUD 265 million ($183 million), the highest quarterly figure since the fourth quarter of fiscal 2022. This was driven by an increase in the NdPr price and sales volume and higher sales volume of total REO products.
Lynas Rare Earth reported NdPr production of 1,996 tons, representing a 32% year-over-year increase. The company also produced eight tons of dysprosium and terbium during the quarter. Total REO production for the quarter reached 3,233 tons, up 69% from the prior-year period. Lynas Rare Earth achieved its first production of samarium oxide in March 2026, ahead of its previously announced April 2026 target.
MP’s Price Performance, Valuation & EstimatesMP Materials’ shares have gained 57% in a year compared with the industry’s 40.1% growth.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
MP is trading at a forward 12-month price/sales multiple of 16.37X, a significant premium to the industry’s 1.49X.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MP Materials’ 2026 earnings is pegged at 16 cents per share, indicating an improvement from the loss of 24 cents in 2025. The estimate for 2027 is $1.06 per share, indicating a 562.5% year-over-year improvement.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The estimate for both 2026 and 2027 has, however, moved down in the past 60 days, as shown in the chart below.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Traders who dumped Energy Fuels NYSEAMERICAN: UUUU shares after its $1.9 billion deal to buy German magnet maker Vacuumschmelze are missing a major shift.
Energy Fuels Today
$15.03 -0.44 (-2.84%)
As of 06/24/2026 04:10 PM Eastern
52-Week Range$5.45▼
$27.90Price Target$23.50
The immediate share price pullback reflects short-term dilution anxiety rather than long-term asset value. By acquiring Vacuumschmelze, Energy Fuels is pursuing a vertical integration strategy to secure a domestic mine-to-magnet supply chain.
The broader industrial economy is shifting toward nuclearizing the power grid to support AI data centers and advanced electric vehicle networks. By linking raw material mining with precision manufacturing, Energy Fuels builds an airtight domestic pipeline that bypasses foreign restrictions on critical minerals. The short-term dip in the stock price masks a strategic business transition that is insulated against geopolitical volatility, positioning Energy Fuels as a cornerstone of national security and Western industrial supply chains.
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Shovels in Australia and Magnets in CarolinaTo understand the asset value, investors must map out the operational pipeline. The loop starts with the excavation of heavy mineral sands at the shovel-ready Donald Project in Australia, where a final investment decision is expected in the third quarter of 2026. Monazite feedstock from this mine will then be processed and separated into heavy rare earth oxides at the White Mesa Mill in Utah. These separated oxides will get transported to Australian Strategic Materials' Korean Metals Plant for conversion into high-purity metals and alloys, with plans to replicate this processing step at a future American Metals Plant.
The final stage of this loop occurs at Vacuumschmelze's advanced magnetics manufacturing plants, specifically the newly commissioned facility in Sumter, South Carolina. This facility has the physical capacity to produce 2,000 tonnes per annum of permanent neodymium-iron-boron magnets, with a clear pathway to scale to 12,000 tonnes per annum. This domestic footprint is supported by a 20-year, $725 million conditional loan commitment from the U.S. Office of Strategic Capital, which will accelerate the expansion of the White Mesa Mill. Energy Fuels is also progressing discussions with Export Finance Australia for a 220 million Australian dollars (approx. $146 million U.S.) lending package to support the Donald Project, alongside an existing $41 million grant from the U.S. Department of War.
Yellowcake Yields Are Funding the New Rare Earth FrontierExpensive acquisitions often trigger shareholder anxiety regarding toxic debt or excessive equity issuance. However, Energy Fuels possesses an internal funding mechanism that sets it apart from risky, still-developing players. The company remains the leading natural uranium producer in the United States, and its primary business is generating exceptional cash flow.
According to the mid-year operational update, first-half uranium production reached 1.6 million pounds of finished uranium oxide, achieving full-year guidance in just six months. Processing costs at the White Mesa Mill are tracking at an exceptionally low $9 to $12 per pound, while mining costs at the Pinyon Plain mine range between $23 and $30 per pound. With spot uranium prices trading at healthy premiums, this highly profitable uranium segment acts as an internal cash generator. This reliable cash stream supports Energy Fuels' aggressive rare-earth expansion, reducing the need to rely on high-interest debt.
Breaking China's Magnetic MonopolyA primary risk for magnet manufacturers is their reliance on imported raw materials. In late 2025 and April 2026, China implemented stringent export controls on critical heavy rare earth additives, including dysprosium and terbium.
These export controls directly impacted Vacuumschmelze, capping its 2025 adjusted EBITDA at $28.6 million, resulting in a net loss of $50.6 million due to severe feedstock constraints.
Energy Fuels' heavy rare-earth separation capabilities directly address this challenge. By processing monazite at the White Mesa Mill, Energy Fuels can deliver a domestic, reliable stream of heavy rare-earth oxides to Vacuumschmelze's plants.
Unshackling the German firm from Chinese supply restrictions should unlock immense operating leverage. Once fully supplied, the Sumter facility alone is expected to generate $65 million to $75 million in run-rate EBITDA at its current 2,000 tonnes-per-annum capacity. Scaling to 4,000 tonnes per annum projects run-rate EBITDA to $130 million to $140 million, highlighting the explosive margin expansion potential of this deal.
Energy Fuels Recharges Its OutlookThe market's initial reaction treated the acquisition as a risky, premium-priced gamble, but a closer look at the price chart suggests a near-term floor is being established. While some observers claim the deal creates an outright Western monopoly, a realistic assessment points to a highly lucrative domestic duopoly.
Energy Fuels Inc (UUUU) Price Chart for Thursday, June, 25, 2026
Energy Fuels' primary competitor is MP Materials NYSE: MP, which has a market capitalization of $10.2 billion and is constructing a 10,000-tonne-per-annum permanent magnet facility in Northlake, Texas, supported by a 10-year defense contract. This dual-player dynamic ensures healthy competition while establishing a highly secure, diversified supply base for Western automotive and defense clients.
Wall Street is increasingly recognizing this potential. On June 22, 2026, H.C. Wainwright reiterated its Buy rating and maintained its $29 price target, signaling robust analyst backing immediately prior to the transaction announcement. Recent headlines and the options market reinforce this bullish outlook, presenting a tight volume put/call ratio of 0.17. Meanwhile, short interest stands at 39.76 million shares, representing 16% of the free float. As Energy Fuels achieves its vertical integration milestones over the coming quarters, this heavy short position could provide a powerful short-squeeze catalyst.
Prepare for the Final Atomic AttractionThe strategic alignment of low-cost upstream mining and processing with downstream magnet fabrication creates a highly resilient business model. Cautious investors may prefer to monitor the progress of the upcoming regulatory approvals and the formal transaction close in early 2027 before initiating a core position to capitalize on the positive analyst forecasts.
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Rare-earth metals are used in everything from your cellphone to high-tech missiles that countries stockpile for self-defense. Right now, most of the world's supply of rare-earth metals comes from China, a country that has shown it will use access to these vital metals as a geopolitical bargaining chip. Which is the first reason why MP Materials (MP 2.46%) is attractive as a long-term investment. The second reason is a bit more subtle.
What does MP Material do? MP Materials has a rare-earth metals mining operation and a rare-earth metals processing business. Both are up and running, and they are both located in the United States. Even more impressive, MP Materials produced positive adjusted earnings of $0.03 per share in the first quarter of 2026. For investors looking at the rare-earth space, this company appears to have a sustainable, full-featured business.
Image source: Getty Images.
Basically, MP Materials has done a lot of hard work in a very short period of time. And that sets it apart from its peers. For example, TMC The Metals Company (TMC 3.73%) is seeking to develop an undersea mining operation. It's an interesting idea, but an operating mine is years away. The investment needed to build the proposed mine will likely leave The Metals Company bleeding red ink for years to come.
USA Rare Earth (USAR 4.06%) is further along in its development as a materials business. It has rare-earth metals processing assets that are operational today. However, it is still developing a rare-earth mine, so capital investment needs will remain elevated for the foreseeable future. And it is aggressively using acquisitions to build out its business. While buying other businesses can lead to rapid growth, such transactions also increase execution risk. And USA Rare Earth is still unprofitable.
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In a high-risk area, hedging your bet makes sense The truth is, rare-earth metals are still something of a developing industry. There's a huge opportunity, but it isn't clear which companies will be the long-term winners just yet. However, for most investors, sticking to the company with the most developed business is probably a good risk/reward balance. So, USA Rare Earth is likely to be more attractive than The Metals Company, and MP Materials is likely to be more attractive than USA Rare Earth.
Any one of these companies (or even all of them) could eventually be big winners. But MP Materials is the only one that is profitable now, with both its mining and processing businesses up and running. That's a compelling advantage if you plan to buy and hold a stock in a high-risk sector for a decade or more.
Key Takeaways MP posted a $1.9M operating cash outflow in Q1 2026, improving from a $63M outflow a year ago.Free cash flow stayed negative at $79.3M in Q1 2026 following a negative $304M in 2025.Higher sales, NdPr volumes and DoW support could help stabilize MP's cash flow after tough years. MP Materials Corp. (MP - Free Report) posted a modest improvement in operating cash flow in the first quarter of 2026, though it still recorded a $1.9 million outflow compared with a $63 million outflow in the same quarter last year.
The year-over-year improvement was supported by higher product sales, as well as the $51 million received from the Department of War (DoW) for the Price Protection Agreement (PPA) income recognized in the fourth quarter of 2025, with no comparable cash inflow in the prior-year period. The company also received a $19 million from the 45X credit associated with its 2024 federal tax return.
Free cash flow remained negative at $79.3 million, though it improved from a $93.7 million outflow a year earlier. This follows an already weak 2025, when MP reported $155.8 million in operating cash outflows and $304 million in negative free cash flow.
MP’s last period of strong cash generation was in 2022, when it delivered $343.5 million in operating cash flow and $22 million in positive free cash flow, supported by elevated rare earth prices and strong demand conditions. Since then, cash flows have weakened significantly alongside falling rare earth prices and softer-than-expected demand for magnetic materials.
In 2023, cash flow from operations plunged 82% year over year to $62.7 million on lower prices and inventory builds to support its Stage II separations facilities as well as Stage III initiatives. The decline continued in 2024, with operating cash flow falling 79% to $13.3 million amid sustained price pressure and continued inventory accumulation as production of separated products ramped up. Notably, free cash flow has remained negative since 2023.
MP Materials is seeing higher production costs as producing separated products is more costly than producing rare earth concentrates. Selling, general and administrative expenses have also flared up as it expanded its workforce to support the downstream expansion. These factors have driven up operating expenses, keeping profits and cash flows under pressure.
Looking ahead, MP’s ongoing ramp-up of separated rare earth production at Mountain Pass, along with the expansion of magnetic precursor and magnet output at the Independence Facility, is expected to keep the costs elevated in 2026. Ongoing investment in downstream capabilities is also likely to keep SG&A expenses elevated, maintaining pressure on near-term profitability and cash flows.
On the positive side, NdPr production volumes are increasing as process optimization and ramp-up efforts progress. Combined with higher sales volumes and support from the DoW Price Protection Agreement, these factors could help partially offset margin pressure and gradually stabilize MP Materials’ cash flow profile after several challenging years.
MP’s Price Performance, Valuation & EstimatesMP Materials’ shares have gained 65% in a year compared with the industry’s 52.6% growth. Other names in the space, like Energy Fuels Inc. (UUUU - Free Report) and USA Rare Earth Inc. (USAR - Free Report) , have gained 194.9% and 93%, respectively.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
MP is trading at a forward 12-month price/sales multiple of 17.52X, a significant premium to the industry’s 1.49X. Energy Fuels and USA Rare Earth are trading at 22.09X and 51.85X, respectively.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MP Materials’ 2026 earnings is pegged at 16 cents per share, indicating an improvement from the loss of 24 cents in 2025. The estimate for 2027 is $1.06 per share, indicating a 562.5% year-over-year improvement.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The estimate for both 2026 and 2027 has, however, moved down in the past 60 days, as shown in the chart below.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Key Takeaways MP Materials is favored for production growth, vertical integration and U.S. rare earth leadership.MP Materials posted record NdPr output and a 49% year-over-year revenue increase in Q1 2026.Energy Fuels grew uranium revenues and REE capacity plans but still projects a 2026 loss. MP Materials (MP - Free Report) and Energy Fuels Inc. (UUUU - Free Report) are key U.S. players in the critical minerals supply chain, with significant exposure to rare earth elements (REE) and strong ties to U.S. efforts to secure domestic mineral production. While MP Materials focuses primarily on rare earth mining and magnet production, Energy Fuels combines uranium production with an expanding rare earths business.
REEs being critical inputs across many existing and emerging clean-tech applications, their demand is expected to increase manifold. For investors seeking to capitalize on this growth, the question is which stock they should put their bets on. To make an informed decision, let us analyze their fundamentals, growth potential and key challenges for MP and UUUU.
The Case for MP MaterialsMP Materials operates the Mountain Pass mine and processing facility, producing refined rare-earth products, concentrates and related materials. It also owns the Independence facility in Fort Worth, TX, where it manufactures magnetic precursor products and began producing neodymium-iron-boron (NdFeB) permanent magnets in December 2025.
The company made significant strategic progress in 2025, including a long-term agreement to supply U.S.-made recycled rare-earth magnets to Apple and a public-private partnership with the U.S. Department of War (DoW) aimed at accelerating a domestic magnet supply chain.
Backed by government incentives, the company is constructing the second domestic magnet manufacturing facility (the 10X Facility) in Northlake, TX, which will lift its total U.S. magnet capacity to 10,000 metric tons. MP is also expanding operations at Independence and scaled heavy rare earth separation commissioning activities are set to begin soon at Mountain Pass.
Operationally, MP continues to scale production and downstream manufacturing capabilities. In first-quarter 2026, the company produced a record 917 metric tons of NdPr, up 63% year over year, driven by higher separated-product output. Rare-earth oxide concentrate production also reached a quarterly record of 12,983 metric tons, up 6% year over year due to improved recoveries and operational efficiencies.
Total company revenues rose 49% year over year to $90.6 million in the quarter, supported by stronger performance in both the Materials and Magnetics segments. MP also recognized $42.3 million in income related to its price protection agreement with the DoW.
However, profitability remains under pressure as the company transitions toward higher-value separated rare-earth products and magnetic materials. Cost of sales increased 52% in the quarter, while SG&A expenses rose 39%. Start-up costs surged more than 500% due to magnet production and chlor-alkali facility ramp-ups, while advanced project and development expenses climbed 302%.
MP Materials reported an operating loss of $24 million in the first quarter of 2026 compared with the year-ago loss of $34.8 million. The company reported adjusted earnings of three cents per share against the year-ago quarter’s loss of 12 cents. Looking ahead, the company expects additional cost pressures as production scales. Start-up costs are also likely to increase further in the coming quarters.
The Case for Energy FuelsEnergy Fuels has produced nearly two-thirds of all uranium in the United States since 2017 and continues to scale uranium production as well as develop REE capabilities, backed by its debt-free balance sheet.
During the first quarter of 2026, Energy Fuels mined ore containing approximately 425,000 pounds of uranium. First-quarter 2026 revenues surged 112% year over year to $35.8 million, primarily driven by uranium sales. During the quarter, UUUU sold 510,000 pounds of uranium at an average realized price of $70.04 per pound.
Costs applicable to revenues rose 18.5% due to higher uranium sales volumes and elevated production costs. Exploration, development and processing expenses climbed 24% year over year because of increased activity at the White Mesa Mill and the Bahia Project. Standby costs jumped 79% as the company advanced permitting and development work at the Roca Honda Project. Selling, general and administrative expenses increased 8% due to higher headcount and compensation costs.
The increase in operating costs was somewhat offset by higher uranium revenues and an increase in other income, resulting in a loss of four cents per share in the quarter, narrower than the year-ago loss of 13 cents per share.
UUUU expects to mine 2-2.5 million pounds of uranium in 2026, and process between 1.5 million and 2.5 million pounds of finished uranium. It also plans to sell 1.5-2 million pounds of uranium under existing contracts and spot market sales. The company recently announced that it expects finished uranium production at the White Mesa Mill to reach approximately 1.6 million pounds by June 30, 2026, higher than the lower end of its full-year production expectations.
The company commenced processing low-cost Pinyon Plain mine ores in the fourth quarter of 2025. This is expected to result in costs of goods sold declining to the $30-$40 per pound range during the remainder of 2026 and boost its margins.
The company has six uranium supply contracts with U.S. nuclear utilities covering deliveries from 2027 to 2032, with potential total deliveries ranging from 2.59 million to 4.41 million pounds, depending on customer options.
Energy Fuels continues to advance a deep pipeline of uranium projects. The Whirlwind mine and Nichols Ranch ISR project alone could add up to 500,000 pounds of annual uranium production within a year of a development decision. Other major projects, including Roca Honda, Bullfrog and Sheep Mountain, collectively contain nearly 70 million pounds of uranium resources.
Beyond uranium, the company continues to advance its rare earth strategy. During the first quarter, Energy Fuels announced successful pilot-scale production of high-purity terbium oxide at the White Mesa Mill, marking the first U.S. primary production of this critical heavy rare earth element in decades. Its proposed acquisition of Australian Strategic Materials is expected to strengthen its position as a fully integrated rare earth “mine-to-metal and alloy” producer outside China. UUUU outlined plans for two expansion phases at the White Mesa Mill that will boost total NdPr production capacity from the current level of 1,000 tons per annum (tpa) to approximately 6,229 tpa, in addition to roughly 80 tpa of terbium and 288 tpa of dysprosium.
How do Estimates Compare for MP & UUUU?The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MP Materials’ 2026 earnings is pegged at 16 cents per share, indicating a solid improvement from the loss of 24 cents in 2025. The estimate for 2027 is $1.06 per share, indicating a 562.5% year-over-year improvement.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Energy Fuels’ 2026 earnings is pegged at a loss of 14 cents, narrower than the loss of 38 cents reported in 2025. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for UUUU’s earnings for 2027 is six cents per share.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The earnings estimates for MP Materials for both 2026 and 2027 have moved down over the past 60 days. The estimates for Energy Fuels for 2026 and 2027 have also been revised downward. This is shown in the chart below.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
MP & UUUU: Price Performance & ValuationMP Materials stock has gained 12.9% year-to-date compared with Energy Fuels’ 5.5% rise.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
MP Materials is trading at a forward 12-month price-to-sales ratio of 16.73X. Energy Fuels is currently trading higher at a forward 12-month price-to-sales ratio of 21.17X.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Energy Fuels or MP Materials: Which Stock is the Better Pick?MP Materials continues to post robust production growth as it executes on its vertical integration strategy. As the only fully integrated rare earth producer in the United States, the company is well-positioned to benefit from strategic partnerships and government support, strengthening its long-term growth prospects.
Energy Fuels, meanwhile, provides investors with diversified exposure to both the uranium and rare earth markets, two sectors poised for significant growth. However, the company's projected losses for the current year, coupled with downward earnings estimate revisions and a richer valuation, make the stock less attractive at this time.
MP Materials currently holds a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), while Energy Fuels carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Among the various corners of the stock market, few have attracted as much attention as rare-earth element companies. This comes as the global economy looks to loosen China’s grip on this market by investing in non-Chinese supply chains.
Critical Metals Today
$10.15 0.00 (0.00%)
As of 06/18/2026 04:00 PM Eastern
52-Week Range$2.20▼
$32.15 Notably, the U.S. government has extended, or could soon extend, funding to companies such as MP Materials NYSE: MP and USA Rare Earth NASDAQ: USAR. Overall, these stocks have delivered returns of more than 250% and 80% since the start of 2025, respectively.
However, there is a much smaller player in this space worth keeping an eye on, Critical Metals NASDAQ: CRML. The stock has put up much smaller gains, up over 30% since the start of 2025. This comes as Critical Metals is an earlier stage of its journey compared to MP Materials and USA Rare Earth. Nonetheless, the company has amassed a set of critical assets and partnerships that could make it a real player in the rare-earth industry long-term. However, as an early-stage firm, it also faces big risks.
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The Tanbreez Project: Critical Metal’s Crown JewelCritical Metal’s key asset is its Tanbreez Project in southern Greenland. Tanbreez is one of the world’s largest hard rock rare earth deposits, with a particularly strong concentration of heavy rare earths. Heavy rare earths are notable due to their use in some of the most advanced technological applications. This includes defense guidance systems, EV motors, and wind turbine generators. Because of this, and their rarity compared to light rare earths, “heavies” also fetch much higher prices.
However, actual mining activity at Tanbreez has not yet begun, and Critical Metals does not expect mining to begin for multiple years. Currently, Critical Metals is targeting first ore production during Q4 2028 or Q1 2029. The company is also targeting concentrate export by Q3 2029—which would conceivably mark the start of product revenue from the site.
Thus, Critical Metals does not generate revenue today. Although, it recorded around $560,000 in “other income” during its latest fiscal year 2025, which ended in calendar Q2 2025. Note that, as a small foreign company, Critical Metals does not provide quarterly financial statements. The company burned around $14.5 million in cash, ending the period with $7.3 million in cash and equivalents. With revenue generation still far off, accumulating funding is key to Critical Metals' ability to continue operating.
Critical Improves Cash Position, Announces Multiple Offtake DealsImportantly, Critical Metals has been able to source financing since the last reporting. It entered into an agreement to receive $50 million in gross proceeds in October 2025. Then, in a May announcement, the company noted that its standalone cash balance was approximately $124 million. This would give the firm a solid amount of cash in relation to its cash burn of $14.5 million.
Meanwhile, Critical Metals has made several moves to secure its strategic position and future demand. First off, the Greenland Government approved a transfer that massively increased Critical’s ownership in Tanbreez from less than 50% to 92.5%. Markets saw this as an important step forward, with CRML shares rising 35% as Critical consolidated ownership around Tanbreez. The company went on to announce the acquisition of European Lithium in an $835 million stock transaction. Upon closing, this would bring the company’s ownership in Tanbreez to 100%.
Other key developments sit on the production and demand side. The company announced a non-binding agreement with a Saudi Arabian conglomerate to construct and operate an up to $1.5 billion processing facility in the country. The agreement also includes offtake rights for 25% of Tanbreez’s rare earth concentrate production. However, these rights now stand lower than 25%, as that figure reflected Critical’s Tanbreez ownership before it increased its stake in the project.
The company then went on to sign a 15-year binding agreement with REalloys NASDAQ: ALOY. With this, REalloys will purchase 15% of Tanbreez’s annual concentrate production, based on Critical’s increased ownership percentage of 92.5%.
What to Watch Next: Critical Metal’s Annual FilingIn summary, Critical Metals has recently seen several positive developments. The company has significantly strengthened its cash position, allowing it to continue funding the advancement of Tanbreez. Additionally, multiple partners have lined up to eventually offtake Tanbreez's supply, providing a level of future demand security.
Still, Critical Metal’s success hinges on getting Tanbreez up and running, and there is no guarantee that will happen. The mining industry is notoriously hard to navigate, with developing new sites being a lengthy process subject to environmental and regulatory setbacks. However, diversifying away from China in rare earths has become a clear priority for governments and enterprises alike. Considering these competing factors, Critical Metals is a very high-risk but high-potential stock.
The company’s fiscal year 2026 annual filing, or its 20-F, will be crucial to monitor. Critical Metals typically releases its annual filing in October. This document should reveal where the firm’s cash position sits after its latest funding agreements, acquisitions, and expenses.
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In recent years, trade tensions have revealed the U.S.'s heavy reliance on China for rare-earth elements and other critical materials used in advanced magnets, which are central to much of today's technology. The United States is taking drastic action to rebuild its supply chain for critical minerals, including taking an ownership stake in U.S.-based MP Materials (MP +0.07%).
MP Materials' stock surged last year in response to its deal with the U.S., which included price floors and long-term purchase commitments for its domestically produced magnets. However, the stock has since fallen 42% from its 52-week high price. Here's why investors may want to consider buying the dip in this rare-earth mining stock.
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MP Materials' earnings turned positive in the first quarter When the U.S. began to rebuild its critical-mineral mining and processing supply chain, MP Materials emerged as a key player in achieving this goal. That's because the company operates North America's only large-scale rare-earth mining and processing site located in Mountain Pass, California.
At Mountain Pass, MP Materials operates an integrated upstream and midstream rare-earth processing facility where it transforms raw baronite ore into highly purified rare-earth oxides. From here, the company sends these materials to its magnetics facility in Texas, where it ships dry, high-purity Neodymium-Praseodymium (NdPr) oxide along with other separated heavy rare-earth, which are then transformed into sintered magnets used by commercial customers.
Last year, the company entered into a historic public-private partnership with the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD). The deal provides a 10-year, 100% magnet offtake commitment and a 10-year price floor mechanism guaranteeing $110 per kilogram for all neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) products, which aim to insulate MP's business from aggressive foreign pricing strategies that have historically driven domestic producers out of business through artificial price suppression.
Image source: Getty Images.
The company saw a positive inflection in its business as illustrated by its solid first-quarter results. During the period, the company achieved a record NdPr production of 917 metric tons, representing a 63% year-over-year increase. Sales increased 49% to $90.6 million, while income from its price protection agreement rose $42.3 million. As a result, its adjusted EBITDA for the period was $36.6 million, a drastic improvement from last year's $2.7 billion loss.
MP Materials is scaling up its processing facility in California and boosting its magnet-making capabilities. To accomplish this, the company is developing a $1.25 billion "10X" magnet manufacturing campus in Texas, where it will aim to produce roughly 10,000 metric tons of NdFeB (neodymium-iron-boron) rare-earth magnets annually. Commissioning and production are slated to begin in 2028.
MP Materials is seeing a positive earnings inflection, and analysts project non-GAAP earnings per share of around $0.23 this year, then growing 371% to $1.10 per share in 2027 and another 53% in 2028.
As MP Materials scales up its mining, processing, and manufacturing capabilities, the company has emerged as a crucial player in rebuilding the U.S. critical minerals supply chain. When its 10X facility comes online, the company will be well-positioned to capture business across the defense, robotics, wind energy, and automotive sectors, making the stock a buy for investors looking to capitalize on this critical minerals transition and the reshoring of Western supply chains.
On CNBC’s June 18, 2026 segment, Tara Murphy Dougherty, CEO of Air (recently rebranded from Govini), delivered a blunt diagnosis of America’s defense-industrial posture. “There’s a lot of pressure on defense companies right now to deliver,” she said. “The Department of War is saying we need more equipment, we need more material, we need more munitions. And the deliveries are years behind.”
Dougherty calls this the “readiness gap”, framing it as “a continuously held state” rather than a one-time fix. The FY 2027 Department of War budget allocates $114 billion for missiles, munitions, and hypersonic weapons and over $100 billion in defense industrial base investments, with explicit targeting of “key sub-tier Solid Rocket Motor suppliers” and a 5-year “mine-to-magnet” rare earth investment strategy. Secretary of War Pete Hegseth has called for moving from a “prime contractor-dominated, low-competition defense industrial base to a future powered by dynamic vendor space”, meaningful nuance for investors: the primes win, but so could the scalers.
Here are nine names positioned for the ramp.
Munitions and Missile Makers Lockheed Martin (LMT) Lockheed Martin (NYSE:LMT | LMT Price Prediction) signed framework agreements to scale production of Patriot, THAAD, and PrSM by “3-4 times current rates.” Missiles and Fire Control revenue grew 8% YoY to $3.649 billion in Q1 2026 per the company’s SEC filing. Shares trade at $510.95, up 6.89% YTD, with a forward P/E of 18.
RTX (RTX) RTX (NYSE:RTX) owns the Patriot franchise. Raytheon revenue rose 10% YoY to $6.945 billion with adjusted operating profit up 25%. Backlog stands at $271 billion, including $109 billion in defense. The stock is up 29.27% over the past year.
General Dynamics (GD) General Dynamics (NYSE:GD) is the ordnance and artillery play. Combat Systems revenue rose 4.9% to $2.28 billion, with total backlog at $188.4 billion and a 2-to-1 book-to-bill.
Northrop Grumman (NOC) Northrop Grumman (NYSE:NOC) makes tactical solid rocket motors and the Sentinel ICBM, at the center of the bottleneck Hegseth’s budget addresses. Shares are down 7.83% YTD, trading at a forward P/E near 19, with an analyst target of $696.95.
L3Harris (LHX) L3Harris (NYSE:LHX) owns Aerojet Rocketdyne, the solid-rocket-motor supplier the budget names. Missile Solutions revenue grew 18% YoY to $990 million, and management is planning a public offering of the segment.
Kratos Defense (KTOS) Kratos Defense (NASDAQ:KTOS) is the “dynamic vendor” archetype. CEO Eric DeMarco cited a “generational recapitalization of the U.S. defense industrial base” and projected FY27 National Security spend of $1.5 trillion. Shares trade at $54.21, down 28.59% YTD despite a forward P/E of 145, making it the highest-risk, highest-torque name in this cohort.
Supply Chain and Raw Materials MP Materials (MP) MP Materials (NYSE:MP) operates Mountain Pass and produces NdFeB magnets essential for missile guidance. Magnetics revenue surged 306%, and shares are up 63.57% over the past year.
ATI (ATI) ATI (NYSE:ATI) supplies titanium and nickel alloys for jet engines and missile airframes. Aerospace and defense is 69% of sales. The stock has surged 75.44% YTD.
United States Antimony (UAMY) United States Antimony (NYSE:UAMY) is the sole domestic antimony processor, with $12 million in Defense Logistics Agency orders and FY26 revenue guidance of $125 million. Shares are up 170.69% over the past year. Speculative, volatile, and tied directly to U.S. critical-mineral independence.
The Risks Investors Should Weigh Defense valuations have run. Delivery delays Dougherty highlights are a risk for every prime here. Programs face political and budget risk between administrations. The administration is also reportedly tightening oversight of defense-contractor shareholder returns via executive order, a potential headwind to buybacks and dividends even as revenue demand climbs. Small caps like UAMY and KTOS carry outsized volatility. Still, with a year-long tailwind in place with inventories dwindling down, investors may want to look at this space.
Especially with supply chain plays, demand drivers come not only from defense needs, but also from AI demand for supplies like titanium or metals like silver and copper.
With its latest investment, a Nasdaq-listed developer is betting that owning the processing and conversion layer — not just the rock in the ground — is where Western critical-materials security will be won.
, /PRNewswire/ -- Equity Insider News Commentary — The race to secure critical minerals for the West has, until recently, been told almost entirely as a mining story: who can dig the rare earths, the magnet metals, the battery inputs out of the ground in jurisdictions that are not China. But a more sophisticated understanding is taking hold — that the real chokepoint is rarely the rock itself. It is the midstream: the refining, processing, and conversion capacity that turns raw ore into usable materials. China's dominance of critical minerals is, above all, a dominance of processing. And so the most strategically interesting companies are increasingly those moving to own not just deposits, but the industrial machinery that gives those deposits value.
That is precisely the shift Greenland Mines Ltd (Nasdaq: GRML) signaled with its latest move. On June 16, 2026, the company announced a strategic share-exchange investment in AnorTech Inc. (TSX Venture: ANOR) (OTCQB: ANORF), a Greenland-focused technology and resource developer advancing sustainable alumina, high-purity alumina, and CO2-free cement from its wholly owned Gronne Bjerg anorthosite project. The deal gives Greenland Mines an initial 9.9% stake, with an option to increase to as much as 19.9%, and — more importantly — extends the company from upstream resource exposure toward the midstream processing segment it sees as the next frontier of value capture in its broader "North Atlantic Critical Metals Corridor" strategy.
The Move Into the Midstream
The logic Greenland Mines articulated is the heart of the story. "This investment expands Greenland Mines beyond upstream resource exposure and moves us closer to the midstream segment of the critical materials value chain, where strategic bottlenecks and value capture increasingly sit," said Bo Møller Stensgaard, Ph.D., President of Greenland Mines. He framed it as a direct extension of the company's corridor vision — linking advantaged Greenland resource assets with industrial processing opportunities in allied jurisdictions such as Iceland or North America — "while adding exposure to sustainable alumina and other advanced materials that we believe can become strategically important to Western supply chains."
The target is differentiated. AnorTech is developing a proprietary process to produce sustainable smelter-grade alumina and high-purity alumina from anorthosite — a process designed to eliminate the bauxite-residue tailings that plague conventional alumina production and instead generate saleable byproducts such as amorphous silica and calcium-based industrial materials. The company filed a U.S. provisional patent covering the process in February 2025, and has extended the platform into adjacent product lines including CO2-free refractory cement, 3D-printable cement, and alumina-based catalysts. To support pilot-plant testing, AnorTech has shipped a bulk sample of crushed Gronne Bjerg anorthosite to Ontario, Canada, and is advancing its alumina and cement R&D programs from that material. Alumina and aluminum, Greenland Mines notes, sit at the center of multiple industrial and security-relevant value chains — chains whose conventional supply remains exposed to concentrated sourcing, logistics risk, and mounting environmental pressure.
There is a notable historical thread connecting the two companies. AnorTech previously owned and operated the Sarfartoq rare earths project — the same Greenland Nd-Pr asset Greenland Mines recently agreed to acquire — and AnorTech President Jim Cambon pointed to that lineage in welcoming the deal, citing his company's 24 years of Greenland development experience and its "leading-edge alumina technologies." In other words, this is not a cold transaction between strangers; it deepens a relationship between teams with overlapping Greenland history.
The Platform Behind the Headline
To understand why the AnorTech stake matters, it helps to see the platform Greenland Mines is assembling. The Nasdaq-listed company — which adopted the GRML ticker in March 2026 — now describes itself as spanning two operating divisions: a mining business and a biotech business. The mining division is anchored by the company's flagship Skaergaard Project in southeast Greenland, one of the largest undeveloped palladium-gold-platinum deposits in the world, with a 2022 NI 43-101 mineral resource (by SLR Consulting) of 25.4 million ounces of palladium-equivalent and 23.5 million ounces of gold-equivalent across the indicated and inferred categories, and additional by-product optionality in vanadium, gallium, iron, and titanium. The company holds an 80% interest in Skaergaard and is preparing a major 2026 field campaign including resource-expansion drilling and a bulk sample for processing-flowsheet development.
Layered onto that precious- and critical-metals foundation is the company's move into magnet rare earths through its agreement to acquire the Sarfartoq Nd-Pr project in southwest Greenland — neodymium and praseodymium being the workhorse elements of the permanent magnets that drive electric vehicles, wind turbines, and defense systems. Greenland Mines frames the AnorTech investment as the same strategic logic applied again: securing exposure not only to the rock in the ground, but to the processing, conversion, and industrial ecosystem that ultimately determines who captures the value. The throughline is the North Atlantic Critical Metals Corridor — a vision of moving bulk material from southwest Greenland by sea for refining or industrial conversion in Iceland, where the company says it has been advancing industrial site access, brownfield processing optionality, deep-port logistics, and renewable-power partnerships.
Why Greenland, and Why Now
The macro backdrop gives the strategy its urgency. Critical minerals — rare earths above all — have become one of the defining geopolitical flashpoints of the decade, with China controlling the overwhelming majority of global processing capacity and repeatedly demonstrating a willingness to use export controls as leverage. Western governments have responded with stockpiles, funding programs, and a scramble to build mine-to-magnet supply chains outside Chinese control. Greenland, with its extraordinary mineral endowment, tidewater access, and strategic position in the North Atlantic, has moved to the center of that conversation — and a Nasdaq-listed developer assembling advantaged Greenland assets, paired with allied-jurisdiction processing, is positioned squarely in the path of that capital and policy attention.
The Gronne Bjerg project illustrates the appeal. Located roughly 80 kilometers from Nuuk on an open-tidewater fjord and adjacent to strong hydroelectric potential, it offers a rare combination of resource quality, marine access, and low-carbon power optionality — exactly the ingredients a future North Atlantic processing chain would require. Greenland Mines sees the combination of Nuuk-fjord logistics, Greenland resource quality, and Icelandic industrial infrastructure as a potentially powerful foundation for low-carbon alumina and industrial-materials development.
The Western Critical-Minerals Names Investors Are Watching
Greenland Mines sits within a cohort of Western-aligned critical-minerals companies racing to build supply and, increasingly, processing capacity outside China. Looking at a few of the most prominent public names helps frame both the opportunity and the scale of the competition.
MP Materials Corp. (NYSE: MP) is the clearest reference point for the integrated, mine-to-magnet vision Greenland Mines is pursuing. Operating the Mountain Pass mine in California — the only large-scale integrated rare-earth operation in the United States — and a magnet-manufacturing facility in Texas where it began producing NdFeB magnets in late 2025, MP has become the bellwether for Western rare-earth independence, backed by government and commercial partnerships. It exemplifies the upstream-plus-midstream model, at a scale and stage far beyond an early-stage developer, that gives the processing-ownership thesis its credibility.
Critical Metals Corp. (Nasdaq: CRML) is perhaps the most thematically precise comparison, because it too is built around Greenland. The company is advancing the Tanbreez rare-earth project in southern Greenland — one of the largest rare-earth deposits in the world — alongside its Wolfsberg lithium project in Europe. As a fellow Western-aligned developer betting on Greenland's critical-minerals endowment, Critical Metals offers a direct window into how public markets are valuing the Greenland critical-minerals thesis that Greenland Mines is also pursuing.
Energy Fuels Inc. (NYSE American: UUUU) approaches the theme from the processing side. Best known as a leading U.S. uranium producer, Energy Fuels has built rare-earth and critical-minerals processing capability at its White Mesa mill, advancing toward commercial production of separated rare-earth oxides. It is a useful illustration of the midstream-processing angle Greenland Mines is now reaching toward — a company turning a milling and processing asset into a Western critical-materials conversion hub.
NioCorp Developments Ltd. (Nasdaq: NB) rounds out the group as an advanced-stage U.S. critical-minerals developer. Its Elk Creek project in Nebraska is designed to produce niobium, scandium, and titanium, with rare-earth optionality, positioning it as another Western-aligned answer to concentrated foreign supply. NioCorp illustrates the long, capital-intensive road from a defined critical-minerals resource toward production — the same path Greenland Mines is navigating with its own portfolio. These companies are referenced to illustrate the sector and do not imply any partnership, endorsement, affiliation, or comparable financial performance; they differ widely in size, stage, and commodity mix, and Greenland Mines is among the earlier-stage, pre-production names.
The Risks Behind the Vision
The strategic narrative is compelling, but the risks are substantial and should be weighed carefully. The AnorTech transaction is an initial 9.9% stake — a minority position, with the larger 19.9% exposure contingent on an option — and it remains subject to customary closing conditions, including TSX Venture Exchange acceptance, with closing expected by the end of June. AnorTech's sustainable-alumina and HPA process is still at the patent-filing and pilot-preparation stage; commercialization of novel processing technology is difficult, capital-intensive, and far from guaranteed. The North Atlantic Critical Metals Corridor, for all its strategic logic, remains a vision under construction rather than operating infrastructure.
Greenland Mines itself is an early-stage, pre-production company. Its flagship Skaergaard resource, however large, has not advanced to a completed feasibility study or production decision, and its Sarfartoq acquisition remains subject to closing, including government approval. The company carries the structural complexity of operating both mining and biotech divisions, depends on continued access to capital to fund its ambitions, and — as it has disclosed — has been working to regain compliance with Nasdaq's minimum bid-price requirement within an extension period. Greenland project development also faces real logistical, permitting, environmental, and execution challenges given the Arctic operating environment. Investors should weigh the genuine strategic positioning against these meaningful, well-documented risks.
Why the Trajectory Still Matters
For all those caveats, the direction Greenland Mines is moving aligns precisely with where the critical-minerals conversation is heading. The recognition that midstream processing — not just mining — is the true strategic chokepoint is reshaping how governments and investors think about supply-chain security. Companies that can pair advantaged Western-aligned resources with processing and conversion capability, and do so with a credible low-carbon and allied-jurisdiction story, are positioning themselves at the most defensible point in the value chain. Greenland Mines is assembling exactly that combination — precious metals, magnet rare earths, and now industrial critical materials and midstream optionality — under a single Nasdaq-listed platform.
Whether the company can convert that vision into producing assets, operating processing capacity, and durable value will be decided over years, through drilling, feasibility work, pilot plants, permits, and financing. The path is long and the risks are real. But the question Greenland Mines is organizing itself around — not merely who controls the rock, but who controls the processing that gives the rock its value — is exactly the question the West is racing to answer. For investors tracking where critical-minerals security is headed, the company's push from the mine toward the midstream is a telling marker of the broader shift.
CONTINUED … Learn more about Greenland Mines Ltd at: https://usanewsgroup.com/grml-landing
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SOURCES:
[1] Greenland Mines Ltd — "Greenland Mines Makes Strategic Investment in AnorTech, Adding Exposure to Sustainable Alumina, High Purity Alumina, and Midstream Critical Minerals Optionality" (PR Newswire, June 16, 2026; primary source for the AnorTech investment, share-exchange terms, Gronne Bjerg, management quotes, corridor strategy):
[2] Greenland Mines Ltd — SEC Form 8-K / investor presentation, "From Resource to Corridor: Developing the Skaergaard PGM-Au-V-Ga-Fe-Ti Project" (May 2026; Skaergaard NI 43-101 resource, ~$68B in-situ value, corridor concept, Bo Møller Stensgaard):
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001907223/000121390026056356/ea029073801ex99-1.htm
[3] Greenland Mines Ltd — SEC Form 8-K, Neo North Star (Sarfartoq) merger agreement ($35M; Nd-Pr rare earths; Greenland Rare Earths Corp.):
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001907223/000121390026059864/ea0291806-8k_greenland.htm
[4] Greenland Mines Ltd — SEC Form 10-Q (FY2026; name change from Klotho Neurosciences to Greenland Mines, GRML/GRMLW ticker effective March 12, 2026; 80% Skaergaard interest; two divisions):
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001907223/000121390026059581/ea0291250-10q_greenland.htm
[5] Investing News Network / CNBC — Western rare-earth and critical-minerals sector coverage (peer context: MP Materials, Critical Metals Corp., Energy Fuels, NioCorp; China processing dominance, U.S. supply-security initiatives):
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While all information is believed to be reliable, it is not guaranteed by us to be accurate. Individuals should assume that all information contained in our publication is not trustworthy unless verified by their own independent research. Comparisons to other companies referenced in this publication are for contextual and illustrative purposes only and do not imply any partnership, endorsement, affiliation, or comparable financial performance. Forward-looking statements regarding the AnorTech transaction and option, the commercialization of AnorTech's alumina, HPA, cement and catalyst technologies, pilot-plant activities, the Sarfartoq acquisition, the Skaergaard project, the North Atlantic Critical Metals Corridor, Nasdaq listing compliance, and the Company's midstream and platform strategy are subject to risks and uncertainties, and actual results may differ materially. Also, because events and circumstances frequently do not occur as expected, there will likely be differences between any predictions and actual results. Always consult a licensed investment professional before making any investment decision. Be extremely careful, investing in securities carries a high degree of risk; you may likely lose some or all of the investment.
LAS VEGAS--(BUSINESS WIRE)--MP Materials Corp. (NYSE: MP) today announced that Ryan Corbett, Chief Financial Officer, will participate in the J.P. Morgan Natural Resources Conference on Tuesday, June 23, 2026, at 8:35 a.m. Eastern Time.
A live webcast and replay will be available at https://investors.mpmaterials.com/.
About MP Materials
MP Materials (NYSE: MP) is America’s only fully integrated rare earth producer with capabilities spanning the entire supply chain—from mining and processing to advanced metallization and magnet manufacturing. We extract and refine materials from one of the world’s richest rare earth deposits in California and manufacture the world’s strongest and most efficient permanent magnets. Our products enable innovation across critical sectors of the modern economy, including transportation, energy, robotics, defense, and aerospace. More information is available at https://mpmaterials.com/.
Join the MP Materials community on X, YouTube and LinkedIn.
Redwire (RDW 6.67%) stock jumped out of the gate Thursday, soaring 11% before giving back most of its gains. As of 11 a.m. ET, the stock is up 3.2%.
And why? The Wall Street Journal just reported that the Trump Administration may make financial investments in U.S. drone manufacturers, aiming to subsidize production of low-cost disposable attack drones commonly referred to as first-person view or "FPV."
Image source: Getty Images.
What we know about the new drone plan The Trump administration is pursuing deals with "a group of drone companies," reports WSJ. Privately held Performance Drone Works and Neros Technologies, both winners of Drone Dominance Program contracts, are believed to be two companies in the running, as is publicly traded Unusual Machines (UMAC 8.26%).
Redwire is not.
That sounds like bad news for Redwire, which placed a big bet on the drone sector when it acquired Edge Autonomy last year in a near-$1 billion deal. Still, negotiations are ongoing, and the Pentagon -- which will manage the investments -- is "continuing to vet the companies." Potentially, that could mean not all the named companies will get funding... or that Redwire won't.
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What's next for Redwire? If Redwire does win government support, what form might that take?
Prior Trump Administration investments have promoted industries critical to national security, while also creating the potential for government profit if the investments pay off. When the Department of Energy awarded a 10-year supply contract to rare-earth element miner MP Materials (MP +0.09%) last year, for example, it also demanded stock in MP.
Any deal with Redwire could take a similar form, comprise loans conditioned on hitting milestones, or come as no-strings-attached grants. For the time being, we simply don't know how this will play out -- but as soon as we know, we'll let you know.
Rich Smith has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Redwire. The Motley Fool recommends MP Materials. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Rare earths producer MP Materials continues to make gains at the stock markets in 2026 after an exceptional last year. Its latest earnings report is encouraging to the extent that revenue growth is robust and the company has managed to report profits for the second consecutive quarter. Unchanged Chinese regulations on rare earths also continue to support MP Materials as a key producer in the US. The stock's long-term market multiples aren't bad either.
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GuruFocus.com is not operated by a broker or a dealer. Under no circumstances does any information posted on GuruFocus.com represent a recommendation to buy or sell a security. The information on this site, and in its related newsletters, is not intended to be, nor does it constitute investment advice or recommendations. The individuals or entities selected as "gurus" may buy and sell securities before and after any particular article and report and information herein is published, with respect to the securities discussed in any article and report posted herein. Gurus may be added or dropped from the GuruFocus site at any time. In no event shall GuruFocus.com be liable to any member, guest or third party for any damages of any kind arising out of the use of any content or other material published or available on GuruFocus.com, or relating to the use of, or inability to use, GuruFocus.com or any content, including, without limitation, any investment losses, lost profits, lost opportunity, special, incidental, indirect, consequential or punitive damages. Past performance is a poor indicator of future performance. The information on this site, and in its related newsletters, is not intended to be, nor does it constitute investment advice or recommendations. The information on this site is in no way guaranteed for completeness, accuracy or in any other way. The gurus listed in this website are not affiliated with GuruFocus.com, LLC. Stock quotes are provided by QuoteMedia, Inc. (CSI). Company fundamental data is provided by Morningstar. Analyst estimates data is sourced from both Refinitiv and Morningstar, with priority given to Refinitiv data. Data is updated daily.
MP Materials shares surge 164% in a year as rare earth output hits records and magnet capacity expands, but valuation and costs remain key watchpoints.
The U.S. is making a strong push to secure domestic rare-earth mining and processing. This move is primarily fueled by the fact that China currently dominates the global market, controlling a staggering 70% of mining and 90% of processing, giving the country considerable influence in international negotiations.
The U.S. entered into a historic arrangement with MP Materials (MP +0.09%) last year, investing in the company to help it ramp up its processing capacity while also providing it with price floors for its critical magnets. Over the past month, several investment banks have raised their price targets on the company. Here's what investors need to know.
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MP Materials' recent earnings results impressed Wall Street MP Materials is the only fully integrated Western rare-earth producer that also owns the largest rare-earth mine in the U.S. at Mountain Pass. Last year, the company entered into a landmark public-private partnership with the U.S. government to purchase its neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) products, which are used in critical rare-earth magnets for electric vehicles, robotics, and defense.
As part of this agreement, the U.S. established a price floor of $110 per kilogram for MP's NdPr products that are stockpiled or sold. This price floor is unusual but is seen as necessary, given that China heavily subsidizes state production of rare-earth elements. By instituting a price floor, the U.S. is locking in a price at which it will buy MP's products, preventing the company from being undercut by foreign competitors.
Image source: Getty Images.
MP Materials' first-quarter earnings results caught the attention of Wall Street, and for good reason. In the quarter, the company earned $90 million in revenue, smashing analysts' forecast of $70 million. Meanwhile, its adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) rose from negative $2.7 million last year to positive $36.6 million. Following its announcement, several investment banks raised their price targets:
Goldman Sachs to $80 from $71 Morgan Stanley to $70 from $62 Deutsche Bank to $70 from $65 Wedbush to $100 from $90 Analysts are beginning to view MP Materials less like a pure mining story and more as an integrated manufacturing platform. In the quarter, MP announced that NdPr production volume increased 63% year over year, while sales surged 117%.
Buying MP Materials is a bet on the U.S. production of rare earths Analysts covering MP Materials' stock project non-GAAP (generally accepted accounting principles) earnings per share of around $0.23 this year, an improvement from last year's loss of $0.38 per share. They also project strong growth, with EPS of $1.10 in 2027 and $1.68 in 2028, showing the strength of the mining company's platform and price floors supporting it.
Looking forward, the company selected Northlake, Texas, for its future 10X facility, where it aims to increase production capacity to 10,000 metric tons of NdFeB (neodymium-iron-boron) rare-earth magnets per year. This would help the U.S. achieve supply independence for the crucial magnets and reduce reliance on China entirely. MP is targeting 2028 for the facility's operational start.
With the U.S. in desperate need of rebuilding its rare-earth mining and processing capabilities, MP Materials is a top rare-earth stock you can own today to capitalize on this trend.
MP Materials Corp (NYSE:MP) stock was last seen down 1.2% at $58.46, heading for its fourth-straight loss. The shares are still up 128% year-over-year, however, with the rare earth manufacturer now retesting support from the 260-day moving average.
According to Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White, MP is trading within 0.75 times the 260-day moving average's 20-day average true range (ATR), after spending at least 80% of the previous two weeks and 80% of the prior 42 trading sessions above that trendline. This setup has appeared just four times during the last decade. One month later, the stock was higher every time after these signals, averaging an impressive 29.7% gain. A comparable rally from current levels would place MP Materials stock at $76.
Short covering could help fuel gains. Short interest represents 19.2% of MP's available float, and would take shorts over four days to cover at the stock's average pace of trading.
MP Materials (MP +0.09%) is a company you might've never heard of, but whose core product is likely embedded in devices you use every day.
Operationally, MP currently controls the only large-scale rare-earth mine in the U.S. -- the Mountain Pass mine in California. Rare-earth elements like neodymium and praseodymium pass from this mine into its processing facilities, where they're processed into materials used to make high-performance magnets. These magnets, in turn, are used in electric vehicles, smartphones, laptops, clean energy technology, missiles, and satellites, among other applications.
Over the last year, MP has emerged as the U.S.'s rare-earth champion. In July 2025, it was the beneficiary of a $400 million package from the Department of Defense, which, in the same deal, also guaranteed a competitive price floor of $110 per kilogram for neodymium and praseodymium.
Image source: MP Materials.
Lately, however, MP has fallen into the background, its 19% gain in 2026 far short of the 223% run it had in 2025. Yet with the SpaceX IPO scheduled for June 12, MP Materials could get a major long-term boost. Here's why.
High-performance magnets are critical to aerospace technology SpaceX builds spacecraft, including rockets and satellites. It has over 10,000 Starlink satellites in orbit, which make up about two-thirds of all the satellites orbiting the Earth. That's an unfathomable number of celestial objects, but the company doesn't think so. In January 2026, it applied to launch a million satellites to help power artificial intelligence (AI).
Many satellites use rare-earth minerals, such as neodymium, dysprosium, and samarium. Indeed, rare-earth magnets are often used for deployment and to help stabilize and maintain the correct orientation once out in orbit.
Rare-earth metals make up only a small part of a satellite's overall metallic composition, yet they are also among the scarcest. As the name suggests, rare-earth elements are infrequently found in viable concentrations in Earth's crust; where they can be extracted economically, they're likely under China's control. The U.S. is aware of this vulnerability, which is why MP Materials has become strategically vital for its supply chain.
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To be sure, MP hasn't inked a deal with SpaceX. But it has entered a $500 million partnership with Apple and an agreement with General Motors to supply permanent magnets to both.
Over the long term, MP aims to establish a thriving mine-to-magnet domestic supply chain in the U.S. If SpaceX wants a domestic supplier of rare-earth magnets, then MP could emerge as an attractive option.
MP has its risks -- it still needs to finish its second magnet factory -- but demand for permanent magnets isn't likely to go away. For investors who consider supply chain vulnerability a long-term opportunity, MP is the metal stock to play it.
MP Materials operates the only large-scale rare-earth mine in the United States. Wall Street remains optimistic about MP stock, targeting a price of about $80 per share.
Key Takeaways MP Magnetics revenues hit $21.1M in Q1 2026, more than fourfold the $5.2M year-ago level.Magnetics adjusted EBITDA climbed to $9.6M as magnetic precursor production scaled and profitability improved.MP started its 10X build targeting 7,000 MT/yr, lifting U.S. rare earth magnet capacity to ~10,000 MT/yr. One of the important takeaways from MP Materials’ (MP - Free Report) first-quarter 2026 results may be the rapid growth of its Magnetics segment. The company reported Magnetics revenues of $21.1 million in the quarter, a more than fourfold increase from the prior-year period’s $5.2 million.
Segment adjusted EBITDA reached $9.6 million compared with $0.49 million in the year-ago quarter, reflecting growing profitability as the production of magnetic precursor products continues to scale.
The Magnetics segment began generating revenues from the sales of magnetic precursor products to General Motors (GM - Free Report) in the first quarter of 2025. Deliveries commenced in March 2025, contributing $5.2 million to first-quarter 2025 revenues. The segment commenced the manufacturing of neodymium-iron-boron (NdFeB) permanent magnets in December 2025.
The trend is significant because it demonstrates MP Materials’ transition from being primarily a mining company to becoming an integrated manufacturer of rare-earth-based products. Historically, the company generated revenues largely from the sale of rare earth materials. Today, MP is increasingly moving downstream into the production of magnetic materials.
At the center of its efforts is its Fort Worth, TX facility (Independence), which serves as both the production hub and engineering headquarters for the segment. In April 2022, the company entered into a long-term agreement to supply magnets and precursor products manufactured at the Independence Facility to General Motors as its foundational customer.
In July 2025, the company entered into a landmark long-term supply agreement with Apple (AAPL - Free Report) for the development, manufacture and supply of magnets from the Independence Facility, as well as the development and installation of scaled recycling capabilities at Mountain Pass to produce the contained rare earths from post-industrial and post-consumer recycled rare earth feedstocks. The company is also pursuing sales opportunities to other customers for its future magnet products.
Management’s confidence in this business is evident from its ongoing investments. During the first quarter, MP expanded operations at its Independence facility and broke ground on its “10X” magnetics facility. Once completed and scaled, it will produce an estimated 7,000 MTs of magnets per year, taking MP Materials’ overall U.S. rare earth magnet production capacity to an estimated 10,000 MTs per year. In addition, the company is preparing to commission heavy rare earth separation capabilities at Mountain Pass, enabling a more complete domestic supply chain for permanent magnets.
MP’s Price Performance, Valuation & EstimatesMP Materials’ shares have gained 99.5% in a year compared with the industry’s 42.2% growth.
MP is trading at a forward 12-month price/sales multiple of 19.21X, a significant premium to the industry’s 1.60X.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MP Materials’ 2026 earnings is pegged at 16 cents per share, indicating an improvement from the loss of 24 cents in 2025. The estimate for 2027 is $1.06 per share, indicating a 562.5% year-over-year improvement.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The estimate for both 2026 and 2027 has, however, moved down in the past 60 days, as shown in the chart below.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
The information contained herein is for informational purposes only. Nothing in this article should be taken as a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. Before buying or selling any stock, you should do your own research and reach your own conclusion or consult a financial advisor. Investing includes risks, including loss of principal.
Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.
Last year, the U.S. government made a historic investment in MP Materials (MP +0.09%) by taking a stake in the mining company as the nation rebuilds its stockpile of crucial materials. The stock surged to $100 in the months following the news but has since fallen 42% from its 52-week high. However, there are two supercharged trends that could send the stock higher.
MP Materials has a historic deal with the U.S. government Essential minerals are fundamental building blocks of modern technology, defense systems, and clean-energy products. Rare-earth elements are crucial for magnets used in radar and defense technologies, while electric vehicles use a significant amount of lithium, cobalt, and nickel.
What puts the U.S. in a precarious position is China's dominance of the supply chain for these minerals. According to research from The Motley Fool, China controls roughly 70% of rare-earth extraction and 90% of its processing. The need to rebuild domestic supply chains of these minerals is the first trend that could power MP Materials' stock higher.
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The company operates the only active rare-earth mining and processing site in the U.S., in Mountain Pass, California. Last year, the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) and MP entered into a historic public-private partnership for the company's neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) products. As part of this agreement, the U.S. established a price floor of $110 per kilogram for NdPr products that are stockpiled or sold. In return, the DoD took a 15% ownership stake in the company's stock.
This price floor is unusual but considered necessary because China heavily subsidizes production of rare-earth elements. With a price floor, the U.S. is locking in a price at which it will buy MP's products, preventing the company from being undercut by foreign competitors, which should accelerate supply chain independence and protect it from nonmarket forces.
Image source: Getty Images.
High-powered magnets for advanced technologies Another trend that could help push the stock higher is the boom in artificial intelligence (AI) and automation hardware. AI data center cooling systems, industrial robotics, and automated manufacturing devices all rely on high-performance rare-earth permanent magnets.
Hyperscalers are building huge data centers, which require advanced liquid-cooling systems that rely on high-efficiency pumps driven by powerful NdPr magnets. And advanced robotics can require dozens of high-torque electric motors, each packed with NdPr magnets to achieve precise, rapid movements.
The company has a $500 million long-term agreement with Apple to build domestic infrastructure to recover rare-earth magnets from recycled electronics and supply chain waste. The company also has a long-term deal with General Motors to supply U.S.-sourced rare earths, alloys, and magnets for its next-generation electric vehicles.
MP management is taking steps to expand its production capacity and is targeting 2028 for the launch of a facility that will increase production tenfold to 10,000 metric tons of neodymium-iron-boron rare-earth magnets per year. With strong tailwinds from government reshoring of supply chains and technological innovations, MP Materials is a top rare-earth stock to benefit from these trends.
