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MP Materials (MP -0.67%) has ample long-term growth potential, but can it become a "millionaire maker?" Trading at a nearly $7 billion valuation, the company has grown very far, very fast, making it questionable whether a small investment can grow into a $1 million position.

Yet while MP Materials stock may not make you a millionaire, growth investors may want to consider it a speculative buy, given its potential to make big moves on news about its efforts to further develop its Mountain Pass rare-earth production site in California.

Image source: Getty Images.

MP Materials and recent results
While its shares are down 22.7% since January, lately MP Materials has made significant commercialization progress. Back in August, alongside beating expectations with its second-quarter 2026 results, the company also provided bullish commentary on its prospects for processing and selling rare-earth magnets to industrial end users. That is, MP Materials announced plans to make major shipments to General Motors and Apple during Q4 2026 and Q1 2027, respectively.

$38.30-$0.26 (-0.67%)

NYSE · As of 4:00 PM ET 10/23/26

This is on top of MP Materials successfully scaling up production of Neodymium-Praseodymium (NdPr), the underlying rare-earth metal derived from its Mountain Pass facility. Last quarter, NdPr production totaled 840 metric tons, up 41% year over year, with NdPr sales increasing 127% from the prior-year quarter, to 1,006 metric tons.

The next big move, though perhaps a modest one
Based on its brief post-earnings surge, the next move for MP Materials could be just around the corner. On Nov. 5, MP Materials will report earnings. A big move could happen if results and guidance once again prove promising.

Still, with so much of its future potential value already reflected in its stock market valuation, and forecasts that MP Materials will only hit the billion-dollar sales mark two years out, forget about "millionaire maker." Even becoming a multibagger stock could prove a stretch.

Moreover, any hiccup in production expansion, or in its GM and Apple rare-earth magnet orders, could cause a new pullback. With this, consider a small speculative position. Even if investors react bullishly to the next earnings release, execution risk will persist.

MP Materials (MP -2.38%) has been a losing stock in 2026. After a stellar year in 2025, in which it was one of Wall Street's hottest mining stocks, MP has tanked over 50% since last October.

And yet MP's core strength hasn't changed: It is still one of the few American companies capable of mining and refining rare earths, the critical materials used in everything from electric vehicles to electronics. It still enjoys support from the U.S. government, including a stunningly high price floor for its neodymium-praseodymium (NdPR) and a 10-year agreement to buy permanent magnets from its planned magnet factory (10X Facility).

Things are looking good in MP's future, but does that mean the stock is a buy right now? Let's take a look.

MP has celebrated big wins in 2026
MP Materials has long been America's rare-earth champion. It owns Mountain Pass, the only active and scaled rare-earth mine and processing site in North America. MP used to sell much of its concentrate to China for processing, but with trade tensions escalating, it's now aiming to become a fully integrated mine-to-magnet company.

Image source: MP Materials.

It's making impressive progress, too. In the second quarter, revenue surged 80% year over year to roughly $109 million, while sales volumes of refined NdPR more than doubled. At the same time, its magnet factory in Texas has been gearing up for commercial production, with first deliveries to General Motors expected in the fourth quarter. MP's biggest magnet factory -- 10X -- is also expected to begin commissioning in 2028.

All in all, MP's revenue is expected to more than double over the next two years, as the chart below shows.

Data by YCharts

Is MP Materials a buy right now?
MP Materials stock has fallen sharply from its 52-week high, even while the business has been improving. That doesn't, however, mean that investors are missing something, or that the market is pricing the stock unfairly. Indeed, my suspicion is that MP Materials -- like a slew of other speculative stocks that briefly caught fire last year -- has faced a long-coming reckoning, that is, a re-evaluation of its fundamentals.

To put it plainly, MP has traded at a premium, and growth investors are simply not having it anymore. To illustrate what I mean, consider, for a second, the following chart.

Data by YCharts

This is a five-year history of MP's price-to-sales ratio, a common metric for evaluating how expensive a stock is relative to the revenue it generates. As you can see, MP's valuation has fallen dramatically, from about 70 times sales in late 2025 to around 17 today. As you can also see, a P/S reading of 17 is still higher than that of other mining stocks.

So, yes, MP stock may have experienced a setback, but that doesn't mean it's cheap. In fact, relative to the last five years, investors are still paying quite a lot for future growth.

That doesn't mean MP isn't a buy right now, only that the valuation will make it volatile in the short-term. This isn't a stock I would recommend for money that you'll need over the next half-decade. But if you can still invest long-term (five years or longer), picking up a few shares of MP at this price could produce a handsome gain.

While short traders tend to evacuate their positions after benefiting from a steep correction, they appear set on betting against the wider U.S. strategic resources sector despite the brutal sell-off that has been affecting it throughout 2026.

Specifically, despite many firms involved with rare earth, lithium, uranium, antimony, and tungsten extraction and processing seeing their equities halve since late 2025, short interest for their shares remains elevated and at up to 33.85%, per Fintel data gathered and curated by commodity expert Oliver Groß.

Indeed, reflecting on the sell-off and the continuous presence of bearish bets, the analyst opined that these investors are ‘playing with fire’ in an October 20 X post:

“Even after the massive sell-off over the past few weeks/months, the short interest in many U.S. critical minerals, lithium, uranium, and rare earth stocks remains extremely high. It seems that most short sellers have not yet covered. They’re playing with fire.”

The data presented shows that four companies are especially affected, with more than 20% of their float shorted: Critical Metals (NASDAQ: CRML) at 33.85%, United States Antimony (NYSE: UAMY) at 28.50%, MP Materials (NYSE: MP) at 25.37%, and Energy Fuels (NYSEAMERICAN: UUUU) at 22.66%.

Notably, all four of these stocks hit milestone highs late in 2025 or early 2026 amidst the U.S.-China and other trade wars and began crashing around the time a deal between Beijing and Washington was announced late last October, or as other tensions, such as with Denmark, subsided early this year.

UUUU, CRML, UAMY, and MP stocks 5-year charts with performance since late 2025 and early 2026 highs. Source: Google
Why these four resource companies are crashing in 2026
Crucially, the companies represent the efforts of Western governments – spearheaded by Washington – to reduce strategic reliance on the People’s Republic amidst the continuously tense relations.

China famously placed export restrictions on rare earth minerals – of which it is one of the largest suppliers on earth – partially in retaliation for the U.S. ban on shipping advanced artificial intelligence (AI) chips to the East Asian country.

Meanwhile, market speculation over the future of the industry was also fueled late last year as it briefly appeared possible that the U.S. would invade its NATO ally, Denmark, over the mineral-rich island of Greenland in a move that would have, among other consequences, removed various environmental protection regulations and made mining easier.

Why short sellers are refusing to budge on U.S. strategic minerals stocks
Still, the program is arguably made more difficult – and, in the short and mid-term, less attractive for investors – by the high costs, dubious competitiveness, and the long wind-up period.

Indeed, the so-called ‘Global North’ – generally viewed as the U.S., the E.U., the U.K. and several of its former dominions, and a handful of Asian countries – abandoned much of its heavy industry and moved production to nations like China as part of its effort to lower labor costs and move pollution elsewhere.

The move arguably backfired as, on the one hand, the People’s Republic developed its domestic capabilities far faster than anticipated, and, on the other, much practical experience and production capacity was lost in the former industrial capitals of the world.

Looking ahead, however, the companies are likely to retain strong backing from the U.S. government and its allies due to the strategic importance of industries they are operating in, which – paired with the severity of the recent downturns –  raises the risks associated with keeping short positions against their equities. 

Featured image via Shutterstock

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LAS VEGAS--(BUSINESS WIRE)--MP Materials Corp. (NYSE: MP) will release its financial results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2026, after the U.S. markets close on Thursday, November 5, 2026.

MP Materials’ management will host a conference call and webcast that afternoon at 2:00 p.m. Pacific Time (5:00 p.m. Eastern Time). Prior to the conference call and webcast, MP Materials will issue a press release and post a slide presentation at https://investors.mpmaterials.com/.

Conference Call Details

Event: MP Materials Q3 2026 Financial Results Conference Call and Webcast
Date: Thursday, November 5, 2026
Time: 2:00 p.m. Pacific Time (5:00 p.m. Eastern Time)
Webcast: https://investors.mpmaterials.com/
Replay: A webcast replay will be available approximately one hour after the call has concluded.

About MP Materials

MP Materials (NYSE: MP) is America’s only fully integrated rare earth producer with capabilities spanning the entire supply chain—from mining and processing to advanced metallization and magnet manufacturing. We extract and refine materials from one of the world’s richest rare earth deposits in California and manufacture the world’s strongest and most efficient permanent magnets. Our products enable innovation across critical sectors of the modern economy, including transportation, energy, robotics, defense, and aerospace.

More information is available at https://mpmaterials.com/.

Join the MP Materials community on X, YouTube and LinkedIn.

More News From MP Materials

Back to Newsroom

MP Materials' steep decline, premium valuation and ongoing losses clash with its long-term magnet growth plans, raising a key question for investors.

Washington has spent the past year and a half writing checks to private companies, and the scoreboard on those investments has been rough. The quieter story—a lighter supervisory touch on banks—has barely made the front page.

Both are regulation stories. They point in opposite directions.

One side of the trade is an industry where the rulebook is getting shorter and competition is getting easier. The other is a company whose biggest new shareholder is the federal government, and whose stock has gone the wrong way ever since.

That split is the real investable idea right now, and it has almost nothing to do with the AI headlines dominating the tape.

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Deregulation Builds Winners, Regulation Only Builds SurvivorsRegulation creates survivability but never guarantees profits, per Joel Litman, chief investment strategist at Altimetry. Deregulation creates competition, and competition is where the best-performing stocks tend to come from.

Litman recently spent several hours with former Congressman Ron Paul in Lake Jackson, Texas, working through the same idea from a constitutional angle. Heavy regulation tends to produce regulatory capture, where incumbents endure because the rules protect them rather than because customers choose them.

The United States Postal Service is the extreme version. It has lost roughly $100 billion since 2007 and is approaching a $9 billion to $10 billion annual loss, per Litman, and nobody is betting on its disappearance. Meanwhile, FedEx Corporation NYSE: FDX and United Parcel Service, Inc. NYSE: UPS move freight worldwide under constant competitive pressure.

Survivability and shareholder returns are not the same asset.

Lighter Bank Supervision Is Already Showing Up in Loan GrowthMichelle Bowman's arrival at the Federal Reserve changed the tone of bank oversight. Narrower examinations instead of sweeping audits. Targeted supervisory action instead of blanket reviews. Some relief on capital requirements and a friendlier path for bank mergers.

That frees up management time and balance sheet capacity, and it is feeding commercial and industrial loan growth, per Litman.

The beneficiary is not the obvious one. When airlines and trucking were deregulated, the legacy carriers that leaned hardest on the old rules were not the winners. The nimbler operators were.

First Citizens BancShares Today

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First Citizens BancShares

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As of 11:21 AM Eastern

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That logic points to First Citizens BancShares, Inc. NASDAQ: FCNCA rather than the $100 billion money-center names.

First Citizens has absorbed roughly 20 banks, including the Silicon Valley Bank assets that the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) needed off its books.

A looser merger environment gives a serial acquirer more targets, and organic commercial and industrial lending adds a second engine.

Return on equity at First Citizens screens slightly higher under Altimetry's uniform accounting than under reported generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) figures, per Litman, which matters because deregulation makes a weak lender bigger just as easily as it makes a strong one bigger.

The share price of roughly $2,000 is not the obstacle some retail investors treat it as. Price reflects share count, not quality, and Berkshire Hathaway has never been held back by it. Litman's preferred entry sits in the roughly $2,150 to $2,200 range, with a margin of safety built on at least a 3-to-1 upside-to-downside ratio and what he describes as high-double-digit percentage potential.

What to watch: commercial and industrial loan balances, deposit costs, and whether the next acquisition announcement arrives on friendlier regulatory terms.

Government Equity Stakes Guarantee Survival, Not Shareholder ReturnsRon Paul calls it corporatism. The federal government stops writing rules and starts taking equity, which means it starts picking winners.

The United States has taken positions in roughly 40 to 50 companies over the past 18 months or so, and the track record since each investment has been poor, with declines of 20%, 40%, and 50%, per Litman. Verify those figures before acting on them.

MP Materials Today

MP

MP Materials

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$37.81▼

$100.25$75.42

MP Materials Corp. NYSE: MP is the clearest example. The rare earth producer lost money in 2024 and 2025, is expected to lose money again in 2026 on Litman's numbers, and the stock is down roughly 50% from around the date of the federal investment.

Survival is not the question. Litman expects the company to be around. The question is what has to go right for the stock: margins the company has not demonstrated it can earn, achieved at something close to total market saturation in its corner of rare earths. Both look unlikely to him, which is also why he thinks a 50% decline does not make it cheap and could extend further.

The onshoring goal is legitimate. The method is the argument. Tariffs already pushed manufacturers toward domestic capacity, and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company NYSE: TSM is building in Arizona for reasons that have nothing to do with a federal equity check. Processing limits on China-based refining could do similar work without putting taxpayers on the cap table.

The Cash Test That Settles a Losing PositionFor anyone still holding from the hype phase, Litman's discipline is blunt. Imagine the money is sitting in cash. Would it buy the stock today?

If the answer is no, that is a sell, with the proceeds better deployed in something like the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF NYSEARCA: VOO or broad exposure to the S&P 500.

He does see a few rare earth names worth owning. The ones with federal backing are not on that list, and the backing itself is the signal to step away. No alternative tickers were named in the conversation.

Follow the Rule Changes, Not the Government's PortfolioFirst Citizens and MP Materials are the same question asked twice. Who benefits when the state steps back, and who gets stuck when it steps in.

The bank case depends on supervision remaining light, merger approvals remaining available, and loan demand holding up. It does not depend on rate cuts, an AI narrative, or a market melt-up. The rare earth case depends on margins and market share that have not shown up yet, and a government stake does nothing to produce either.

Stay focused on who is writing the rules and who is taking the equity, because that distinction is what moves these two stocks in opposite directions.

For the full argument, watch Joel Litman's complete conversation with Ron Paul and the deregulation research behind it.

Should You Invest $1,000 in First Citizens BancShares Right Now?Before you consider First Citizens BancShares, you'll want to hear this.

MarketBeat keeps track of Wall Street's top-rated and best performing research analysts and the stocks they recommend to their clients on a daily basis. MarketBeat has identified the five stocks that top analysts are quietly whispering to their clients to buy now before the broader market catches on... and First Citizens BancShares wasn't on the list.

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If any investor had doubts that rare-earth stocks were subject to volatility due to political events, the recent "Greenland bounce" would go a long way toward dispelling that notion. USA Rare Earth (USAR -2.36%) and MP Materials (MP -2.20%) stocks soared and slumped in response to recent events, even though they're unlikely to affect the fundamental case for the stocks. Here's the how, why, and what of the real investment case for the stocks.

The announcement of a defense agreement between the U.S., Denmark, and Greenland raised hopes that U.S. rare-earth companies might benefit from rare-earth extraction in Greenland, not least to source rare-earth materials ultimately used in magnet production in the U.S.

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However, neither USA Rare Earth nor MP Materials has any assets in Greenland, and it seems unlikely they will benefit directly from the deal. In addition, the parts of the arrangement regarding resource extraction do not grant the U.S. any special rights beyond the agreement, which requires unanimous decisions by the U.S., Greenland, and Denmark on mining investments by non-NATO members/partners, or non-European Union members.

In practice, that means countries like China, Brazil, and Russia can't invest in rare-earth assets in Greenland without U.S. approval. Still, the reality is they all have ample rare-earth assets anyway and are unlikely to have had any interest in them.

Who wins from the Greenland deal? The deal, however, is a positive for Critical Metals Corp. (CRML -3.53%), which has an early-stage rare-earth project in Tanbreez, Greenland, from which it hopes to supply heavy rare-earth elements (HREE) to North America and Europe. It's also good news for REalloys (ALOY -4.99%), which has a long-term supply agreement with Critical Metals for production from Tanbreez. In addition, Critical Metals has a joint venture with a Romanian state-owned entity that involves supplying 50% of the Tanbreez Project's premium rare-earth concentrates to the joint venture.

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USA Rare Earth and MP Materials In common with REalloys and USA Rare Earth, MP Materials is operating a mine-to-magnet strategy to develop a non-China-sourced supply of rare-earth magnets. They are the answer to China's overwhelming dominance in the industry. They would help secure the domestic supply chain for critical materials used in myriad technologies across defense, consumer electronics, electric vehicles, industrial sectors, and renewable energy.

In theory, at least, USA Rare Earth and MP Materials could seek supply agreements with Tanbreez and other assets developed in Greenland. Still, it's worth noting that rare-earth materials are not like traditional commodities. They need to be processed and separated first before magnet production is tailored to the source material, and the separation facility also needs to be tailored to the source material.

Image source: Getty Images.

What's next for USA Rare Earth and MP Materials? Although the Greenland agreement is not a game changer for either company, the reality is that they both have plans in progress to execute on their mine-to-magnet strategy. MP Materials is arguably a lower-risk proposition, as it already produces magnets at its Fort Worth, Texas, facility; has two foundational customers in Apple and General Motors; and has begun construction of a new facility in Northlake, Texas. As for the "mine" part, it already has its Mountain Pass, California, asset in operation.

USA Rare Earth began magnet production this year, and the company has derisked its business model by buying Serra Verde -- the owner of a rare-earth mine and processing plant in Brazil -- and plans to commission its Round Top mine in Texas in 2028 to supply rare-earth materials for its magnet production.

Both of these companies have excellent long-term growth opportunities as well as operational risks, but neither depends on nor is likely, at this stage, to involve Greenland.

Rare earth stocks just had a rough month, and MP Materials (NYSE:MP) sits right in the middle of the damage. MP Materials stock is at $46.75, down 21% over the past month.

Listen to the audio version of this article (generated by AI).

Editor’s note: “China’s Rare Earth Squeeze Is Making MP Materials More Important” was previously published in August 2026 with the title, “The Reason China Targeted MP Materials Might Shock You.” It has since been updated to include the most relevant information available.

In October 1973, America learned an unforgettable lesson about what happens when a strategic rival controls the one input everything runs on…

Arab oil producers announced an embargo on the United States – and almost overnight, the world’s most powerful economy was brought to its knees. Oil prices roughly quadrupled. Gas lines stretched for blocks. Washington imposed a national 55-mph speed limit to ration fuel. And the shock helped usher in a decade of stagflation that scarred an entire generation of investors.

The embargo itself lasted barely five months. The lesson lasted 50 years: a critical dependency, concentrated in the hands of a rival, is a weapon waiting to be fired.

I bring this up because history is rhyming right now.

Except this time, the chokepoint is a handful of obscure elements at the bottom of the periodic table. And the first shots of the new embargo have already been fired.

This past June, China’s Ministry of Commerce formally added several U.S. companies to its export-control and government-procurement blacklists – direct retaliation for America’s push to build a rare earth supply chain outside Beijing’s borders. It wasn’t the first warning, either. During the ‘Liberation Day’ tariff standoff, China restricted rare earth exports and sent automakers and defense contractors scrambling. Tesla (TSLA) faced multi-week production delays over Chinese export licenses.

And the pressure has not gone away. Chinese customs data show rare earth magnet shipments to the U.S. fell to 512 metric tons in August, down 20% from July and 13% from a year earlier.

It serves as a reminder that Beijing can squeeze the supply chain one license, one shipment, and one customer at a time.

Oil made the 20th-century economy move. Rare earth magnets make the 21st-century economy move.

Let me show you why – and how investors can get on the right side of the divide.

Why Physical AI Depends on Rare Earth Magnets The AI boom is no longer just about data centers and chatbots. This technology is going physical. And physical AI runs on motors.

Humanoid robots like Tesla’s Optimus are powered by a network of small electric motors in their shoulders, elbows, wrists, fingers, hips, knees, and ankles – reportedly dozens of precision motors per machine. 

The key ingredient inside nearly every one is a neodymium-iron-boron (NdFeB) magnet, which delivers exceptional strength in a compact, battery-friendly package. Each humanoid could contain 2 to 4 kilograms of rare earth magnets, or sometimes more than an entire EV.

But robots are just the beginning. Consider how much of the modern buildout funnels through this single input:

Tesla’s vehicles need those same magnets in the traction motors that turn electricity into forward motion.  Orbital data centers need them in the reaction wheels that point satellites without burning fuel.  Advanced semiconductor tools need them in the wafer-handling robotics that move silicon through fabrication. And virtually every guided munition, drone, and defense platform in the U.S. arsenal needs them, too. Robots. Cars. Satellites. Chips. We’re talking about different revolutions with the same input.

The analysts running the numbers see what we see: from Bloomberg to McKinsey to Goldman Sachs, forecasters expect global rare earth magnet demand to roughly triple by 2040, led overwhelmingly by robotics and EVs.

So, for physical AI, more robots means more motors, more motors means more magnets, and more magnets means massive new demand for rare earth elements like neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium, and terbium.

This supply chain starts in the dirt. And that’s exactly where the problem begins.

China Still Dominates the Rare Earth Magnet Supply Chain When we first covered this story last summer, China controlled over 85% of the world’s rare earth refining and magnet production. Today, the picture is even starker. China produces the overwhelming majority of the world’s heavy rare earth elements – and roughly 90% of the finished magnets made from them.

Read that again. 

The single input underpinning robotics, EVs, satellites, chip fabs, and modern defense systems is controlled – almost in its entirety – by America’s chief strategic rival. A rival that has now demonstrated, repeatedly, that it’s willing to weaponize that position.

In 1973, at least the oil weapon was pointed at us by a coalition of nations with mixed motives and leaky discipline. This time, the chokehold belongs to one government.

Washington has finally gotten the message. The U.S. is investing billions in domestic mining, refining, and magnet-making, backed by Defense Production Act funding, DOE grants, and tariff protection. 

And defense acquisition rules now require contractors to phase out Chinese-origin rare earth magnets by January 2027 – a hard regulatory clock forcing a large pool of manufacturers to find non-Chinese supply on a fixed timeline.

Which raises the trillion-dollar question: find it where?

MP Materials Is Building a U.S. Mine-to-Magnet Supply Chain Right now, MP Materials (MP) is America’s clearest operating mine-to-magnet platform.

MP owns Mountain Pass in California – the largest rare earth mining site in the Western Hemisphere, accounting for more than 10% of global supply. And just look at what has happened since we first profiled the company.

The Pentagon’s $400 million investment turned out to be far more than a cash infusion. The U.S. government took a 15% equity stake and signed a 10-year offtake agreement for magnet materials at a guaranteed price floor of $110 per kilogram. 

Even if global rare earth prices crash – the kind of move China could try to engineer to undercut Western producers – MP has a decade of government-backed economics on a meaningful portion of its output. That kind of downside protection is nearly unheard of for a commodity-adjacent business.

Washington and Corporate America Are Locking In Supply Since then, the validation has kept stacking up. 

Apple (AAPL) signed a $500 million agreement to buy American-made rare earth magnets from MP, with a dedicated recycling program feeding its Fort Worth, Texas facility. 

General Motors (GM) has a long-standing supply agreement for use in EV traction motors. MP also formed a joint venture with the U.S. government and Saudi Arabia’s state mining company to develop a rare earth refinery in the Kingdom – a second leg of supply outside both China and its domestic operations. 

Its “10X” expansion plan targets nearly 10,000 metric tons of annual magnet production by 2028, roughly a tenfold increase from a couple of years ago. And it’s commissioning heavy rare earth separation at Mountain Pass – the capability to isolate elements like dysprosium and terbium, essential for magnets that hold their strength inside a hot robot joint or satellite actuator.

The customer base is widening, too. MP recently signed a long-term, nine-figure agreement to supply gadolinium to a U.S. aerospace and defense manufacturer. It also launched Project Swarm, an effort to coordinate magnet demand across the American and allied drone industries.

The same company supplying EV magnets is now positioning itself deeper inside aerospace, defense, and autonomous systems.

Now the buildout is showing up in the numbers. 

Second-quarter revenue jumped 89% year over year to $108.5 million. NdPr production rose 41%, while sales volume more than doubled, and adjusted EBITDA improved to $28.5 million from a loss a year earlier. The Pentagon-backed price-protection agreement contributed another $17.6 million.

Meanwhile, MP delivered magnets to General Motors for in-vehicle qualification testing and remains on track to begin commercial shipments in the fourth quarter.

Beijing’s pressure has not stopped the buildout. 

The harder China squeezes, the more urgent MP’s expansion becomes. 

Why Rare Earth Supply Matters to the Physical AI Buildout Humanoid robots. Electric vehicles. Satellites and orbital data centers. Advanced chip fabs.

Those are the four pillars of one man’s empire.

Every one of Elon Musk’s biggest bets – Optimus, Tesla’s vehicle fleet, SpaceX’s (SPCX) orbiting constellations, and his push into chipmaking – funnels through the exact same magnet supply chain we’ve spent this whole issue dissecting. History’s most ambitious industrial plan has a critical vulnerability, and it’s sitting at the bottom of the periodic table.

Now, one honest caveat, because we deal in facts here, not hype: no supply agreement between MP and Tesla or SpaceX has been announced. The connection is structural – shared inputs, shared strategic goals – not a signed contract. But a manufacturer as famously obsessed with controlling his own inputs as Musk, ramping Optimus toward volume production, drawing on the same domestic magnet source that Apple and GM already depend on? We wouldn’t bet against it.

Either way, the takeaway is the same: whoever supplies the magnets supplies the empire.

The Bottom Line: Rare Earth Stocks Are Becoming a Strategic Supply-Chain Trade The 1973 embargo caught America flat-footed. But the investors who understood the chokepoint before the weapon fired were able to ride the energy supercycle that followed to generational wealth.

Today’s chokepoint is rare earth magnets.

The weapon has already been test-fired and the regulatory clock is ticking toward January 2027.

The biggest industrial buildout of our lifetimes – Musk’s included – is competing for the same limited supply.

Rare earths are already showing us what happens when enormous demand collides with a supply chain the United States can no longer afford to ignore.

They also illustrate the framework I use when looking for the biggest opportunities: identify the project, trace the physical bottlenecks underneath it, and find the investments positioned to relieve them before the money starts flooding in.

That same framework led me to what I call XPANSE.

Elon Musk has suggested this project could produce 1,000-fold gains for early investors. The stakes extend well beyond anyone’s portfolio, too. XPANSE may help America eliminate a looming threat that one high-ranking government official has described as an “economic apocalypse.”

In my new briefing, I lay out the three steps investors can take today to get on the right side of this shift. I also reveal the name and ticker symbol of one investment I believe is ideally positioned as XPANSE moves forward – completely free.

See the full briefing – and get the free name and ticker – right here.

State Street Corp lifted its holdings in shares of MP Materials Corp. (NYSE:MP – Free Report) by 5.1% in the second quarter, according to the company in its most recent disclosure with the Securities & Exchange Commission. The institutional investor owned 7,773,746 shares of the company’s stock after acquiring an additional 376,519 shares during the quarter. State Street Corp owned approximately 4.36% of MP Materials worth $435,408,000 as of its most recent filing with the Securities & Exchange Commission.

A number of other institutional investors and hedge funds also recently added to or reduced their stakes in MP. EMC Capital Management bought a new position in MP Materials in the 4th quarter worth $25,000. REAP Financial Group LLC purchased a new stake in shares of MP Materials in the 4th quarter worth about $26,000. Toth Financial Advisory Corp boosted its stake in shares of MP Materials by 73.3% during the 2nd quarter. Toth Financial Advisory Corp now owns 520 shares of the company’s stock valued at $29,000 after purchasing an additional 220 shares in the last quarter. University of Texas Texas AM Investment Management Co. bought a new stake in shares of MP Materials during the 4th quarter valued at about $36,000. Finally, Markowski Investments purchased a new position in shares of MP Materials during the second quarter valued at about $43,000. Hedge funds and other institutional investors own 52.55% of the company’s stock.

Wall Street Analysts Forecast Growth A number of equities analysts recently issued reports on the stock. Wall Street Zen downgraded shares of MP Materials from a “hold” rating to a “sell” rating in a research note on Saturday, July 25th. Citigroup reaffirmed a “positive” rating on shares of MP Materials in a research report on Wednesday, July 15th. DA Davidson reiterated a “buy” rating and set a $82.00 target price on shares of MP Materials in a report on Monday, August 24th. Morgan Stanley reissued an “overweight” rating on shares of MP Materials in a research report on Wednesday, August 19th. Finally, Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft decreased their target price on MP Materials from $70.00 to $61.00 and set a “buy” rating for the company in a research report on Thursday, July 9th. One investment analyst has rated the stock with a Strong Buy rating, thirteen have given a Buy rating, one has issued a Hold rating and two have assigned a Sell rating to the company’s stock. According to MarketBeat.com, the stock has a consensus rating of “Moderate Buy” and a consensus target price of $76.29.

Check Out Our Latest Report on MP MP Materials Price Performance Shares of NYSE MP opened at $48.94 on Thursday. MP Materials Corp. has a fifty-two week low of $37.81 and a fifty-two week high of $100.25. The company has a 50 day simple moving average of $50.97 and a two-hundred day simple moving average of $55.87. The company has a market capitalization of $8.72 billion, a price-to-earnings ratio of -143.95 and a beta of 1.94. The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.48, a quick ratio of 8.56 and a current ratio of 9.51.

MP Materials (NYSE:MP – Get Free Report) last released its earnings results on Thursday, August 6th. The company reported ($0.01) earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter, meeting the consensus estimate of ($0.01). MP Materials had a negative net margin of 19.85% and a negative return on equity of 1.21%. The firm had revenue of $108.49 million during the quarter, compared to analyst estimates of $96.89 million. During the same period last year, the business earned ($0.13) earnings per share. The business’s revenue was up 89.0% on a year-over-year basis. Analysts expect that MP Materials Corp. will post -0.12 EPS for the current fiscal year.

About MP Materials (Free Report)

MP Materials Corp. is a rare earth materials company that owns and operates the Mountain Pass rare earth mine and processing facility in California. The site is one of the largest rare earth production facilities in the Western Hemisphere and produces rare earth concentrate, with an emphasis on neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr), materials used in high-performance permanent magnets.

The company is expanding its operations beyond mining and concentrate production into separated rare earth products and magnet manufacturing.

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A Greenland security deal sent Critical Metals soaring Monday, but Tuesday brought a sharp reversal that has nothing to do with the Tanbreez project itself. Here is what the peer group and the broader rare earth ETF reveal about what…

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Shares of Critical Metals (NASDAQ:CRML) are down 6% to $8.77 in Tuesday morning trading, giving back part of a sharp Monday rally tied to Greenland. The pullback follows a large prior run rather than any negative news at the company or its flagship Tanbreez rare earth project.

For a framing contrast, the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF (NYSEARCA:REMX) is up 0.63% to $69.83, a relatively muted drawdown on the session. That marks Critical Metals’ drop as a giveback concentrated in the names that ran hardest, not a broader rare earth repricing.

Peer moves are muted alongside. USA Rare Earth (NASDAQ:USAR) stock is slipping 2% to $16.40, while MP Materials (NYSE:MP) stock is sliding 2% to $49.11. Neither name has a clear same-day company-specific catalyst.

Profit Taking After a Greenland-Driven Surge Critical Metals shares rallied Monday after the U.S., Denmark and Greenland reached a security agreement that put the Tanbreez rare earth project back into focus. President Donald Trump said Friday that the arrangement gives Washington permanent security rights in Greenland, room to expand its military presence, and bars U.S. adversaries from establishing bases, a military presence or sensitive investments there without express written U.S. approval.

Reuters reported that the three governments were set to sign the security agreement Tuesday, with Denmark saying the arrangement places Arctic security under NATO oversight. The deal concerns military rights and foreign investment approvals rather than mining permits, so nothing about the Tanbreez development timeline changed overnight for Critical Metals.

Critical Metals stock also still holds a 23% gain over the past month, so this session takes back part of a run rather than undoing it. That period frame matters here: the mechanism the figures support is profit taking after a surge, not a change in the underlying project story at Tanbreez.

What the Peer Group Says About Critical Metals The muted damage in USA Rare Earth and MP Materials, paired with the VanEck rare earth fund practically unchanged, reinforces the profit-taking reading. If the driver were a broad rerating of Western rare earth supply, REMX would be dropping in line with the leaders rather than sitting flat.

USA Rare Earth sits mid-buildout, with a vertically integrated magnet strategy and a large cash position that leaves the company operationally distinct from Critical Metals. MP Materials remains the scaled U.S. producer through its Mountain Pass mine and Fort Worth magnetics facility, and it operates at a different point on the rare earth chain than Critical Metals or USA Rare Earth.

Tanbreez sits in southern Greenland, holds one of the world’s largest known rare earth deposits and has direct access to North Atlantic shipping routes. Critical Metals holds a large majority of the project and plans to acquire the remaining minority interest held by European Lithium.

Clear Street Call and the Xi Meeting Clear Street maintained a Buy rating and a $20 price target on CRML stock, arguing that a formal agreement could let the company accelerate its investment plans and development phases at Tanbreez. Critical Metals stock trades at $8.77 against that $20 target, according to Clear Street.

Trump meets Chinese President Xi Jinping later this week, and critical mineral supply is expected to feature in the wider trade discussions. Any signal on export controls or bilateral supply terms can move sentiment across the rare earth complex, Critical Metals included.

The bull case for Critical Metals rests on the Clear Street argument, with the signing landing this week and critical minerals on the agenda when Trump meets Xi. By contrast, the bear case for Critical Metals is simpler: the security deal touches military rights, not mining permits, and Tanbreez remains a pre-revenue project with a definitive feasibility study still ahead.

What to Watch Investors can watch for whether the Greenland signing this week lands as scheduled and whether Denmark or Greenland issues supporting statements on Tanbreez or Arctic mining more broadly. Traders may want to keep an eye on whether Critical Metals stock holds $8.75, since a deeper break would weaken the profit-taking read for CRML.

Given the beta and headline sensitivity of Critical Metals and its peers, their positions should stay sized for volatility rather than conviction. A cautious approach makes sense here for readers new to Critical Metals: partial trims after multi-day surges, and disciplined re-entry rules if the group gives back more before the next Greenland or trade headline.

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

Key Takeaways Energy Fuels is scaling uranium and rare-earth production while expanding across the supply chain.MP Materials is boosting NdPr output and magnet capacity as downstream manufacturing ramps.Both face higher costs and lower earnings estimates, with expansion plans requiring significant capital. Energy Fuels Inc. (UUUU - Free Report) and MP Materials (MP - Free Report) are US-based critical-minerals companies seeking to strengthen domestic supply chains and reduce reliance on China. 

Energy Fuels is a leading U.S. producer of uranium and owns the White Mesa Mill in Utah, the only fully licensed conventional uranium mill operating in the United States. The facility also produces rare earth element (REE) products and evaluates medical isotope recovery for emerging cancer therapies. MP Materials is the largest rare-earth producer in the Western Hemisphere. It owns and operates the Mountain Pass Rare Earth Mine and Processing Facility in California, the only rare-earth mine and processing site of scale in North America.

REEs are used in a variety of energy, advanced and defense technologies, including powerful magnets used in EVs and hybrid EVs, advanced robotics, wind energy and several defense technologies. With demand expected to rise significantly, both companies are expanding their positions across the rare-earth value chain.

For investors seeking to capitalize on this growth, the question is which stock they should put their bets on. To make an informed decision, let us analyze their fundamentals, growth potential and key challenges for UUUU and MP.

The Case for Energy FuelsEnergy Fuels has produced nearly two-thirds of all uranium in the United States since 2017 and continues to scale uranium production as well as develop REE capabilities.

In the second quarter of 2026, Energy Fuels mined ore containing 315,000 pounds of uranium and produced 865,000 pounds of finished uranium. This takes the total to 1.7 million pounds of finished uranium for the first half, already exceeding the low end of its full-year guidance of 1.5-2.5 million pounds.

Energy Fuels is also making progress in rare earths. In March 2026, the company successfully produced terbium (Tb) oxide at pilot scale, becoming the first U.S. company in decades to achieve the milestone. In August, UUUU announced that its terbium oxide had been qualified by one of the world's largest rare-earth permanent magnet manufacturers outside China.

Energy Fuels’ second-quarter revenues jumped 496% year over year to $25.1 million, driven by higher uranium sales volumes and realized prices. The company sold 310,000 pounds of uranium at an average realized price of $80.48 per pound compared with 50,000 pounds at $77 per pound in the year-ago quarter.

Costs applicable to revenues surged 192% to $10.7 million on higher uranium volumes sold, partially offset by lower weighted average cost per pound of uranium sold. Standby costs surged 61% year over year due to higher permitting activities at Roca Honda and Whirlwind and increased maintenance activities at Nichols Ranch. Selling, general and administration were up 31% year over year, reflecting increases in general headcount, salaries and benefits. UUUU also incurred $10.7 million in transaction and integration costs. The company reported a net loss of 13 cents per share in the quarter, wider than the year-ago quarter’s loss of 10 cents per share.

UUUU expects to mine 2-2.5 million pounds of contained uranium in 2026 and sell 1.5-2 million pounds through spot and contracted transactions. The company has six uranium supply contracts with U.S. nuclear utilities with deliveries extending to 2032. As of June 30, 2026, contracted volumes totaled 3.20 million base pounds, with minimum and maximum deliveries of 2.77 million and 4.72 million pounds, respectively.

Energy Fuels continues to advance a deep pipeline of uranium projects. The Whirlwind mine and Nichols Ranch ISR project alone could add up to 500,000 pounds of annual uranium production within a year of a development decision. Other major projects, including Roca Honda, Bullfrog and Sheep Mountain, collectively contain nearly 70 million pounds of uranium resources.

On the rare-earth front, UUUU has begun an expansion of its White Mesa Mill to enable the large-scale production of heavy rare earth oxides. Its acquisition of Australian Strategic Materials (ASM) adds the Korean Metals Plant in Ochang, South Korea, which has the current capacity to produce 1,300 tons of neodymium-iron-boron (NdFeB) alloy annually. Expansion is underway to increase NdFeB alloy capacity at the Korean Metals Plant to 3,600 tons per year. 

The plant also possesses commercial metallization capabilities for neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) and is developing metallization capabilities for dysprosium (Dy) and Tb. This complements Energy Fuels' NdPr, Tb and Dy oxide production and expansion initiatives at its White Mesa Mill in Utah. 

Energy Fuels is also seeking to move further downstream through its planned acquisition of permanent magnet manufacturer Vacuumschmelze (“VAC”), announced in June 2026. If completed, potentially as early as the first quarter of 2027, the deal would give UUUU exposure across a broader portion of the rare-earth value chain, from mineral resources and processing to finished magnetic products.

The Case for MP MaterialsMP Materials operates the Mountain Pass mine and processing facility, producing refined rare-earth products, concentrates and related materials. It also owns the Independence facility in Fort Worth, TX, where it manufactures magnetic precursor products and began producing permanent magnets in December 2025.

Backed by government incentives, the company is constructing the second domestic magnet manufacturing facility (the 10X Facility) in Northlake, TX, which will lift its total U.S. magnet capacity to 10,000 metric tons. 

MP continues to scale production and downstream manufacturing capabilities. NdPr production increased 41% year over year to 840 metric tons in the second quarter of 2026 despite a scheduled semiannual maintenance outage at Mountain Pass. Management expects third-quarter 2026 NdPr production to exceed 1,000 metric tons as throughput and plant reliability improve.

MP Materials remains on track to begin producing Tb and Dy later this year, while first samarium production is targeted for 2028. The company recently entered into a multiyear agreement to supply gadolinium oxide to a leading U.S. aerospace and defense manufacturer. 

Meanwhile, MP is progressing with its magnet manufacturing operations. During the second quarter, MP Materials delivered magnets to General Motors Company (GM - Free Report) for in-vehicle qualification testing and expects to begin commercial shipments in the fourth quarter, followed by a steady production ramp. 

MP reported an 89% year-over-year increase in second-quarter 2026 revenues to $108.5 million. The company also recorded $17.58 million in income tied to a price protection agreement (PPA) with the U.S. Department of War (DoW). Cost of sales, however, increased 43.3% year over year, and selling, general and administrative expenses rose 28.2%. Start-up costs surged to $14.4 million from $0.76 million in the year-ago quarter as MP advanced initial magnet production. MP reported an adjusted loss of one cent per share in the second quarter of 2026, a significant improvement from the loss of 13 cents in the year-ago quarter.

Looking ahead, the company expects additional cost pressures as production scales. Start-up costs are also likely to increase further in the coming quarters.

MP Materials has also worked with U.S. and allied drone manufacturers to launch Project Swarm, an industrial coordination initiative designed to aggregate and standardize future magnet demand. It has already signed subscription agreements with several participants. The company’s partnership with Apple Inc. (AAPL - Free Report) on magnet recycling, magnet production and joint development also continues to advance. 

Meanwhile, construction of the 10X facility remains on track. The second U.S. rare earth magnet facility is expected to begin commissioning in 2028 and produce approximately 7,000 metric tons of magnets annually. Combined with the 3,000-metric-ton capacity of the Independence facility, MP’s U.S. magnet capacity is expected to reach 10,000 metric tons annually.

How do Estimates Compare for UUUU & MP?The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Energy Fuels’ 2026 earnings is pegged at a loss of 25 cents, narrower than the loss of 38 cents reported in 2025. The consensus estimate for UUUU’s earnings for 2027 is three cents per share.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MP Materials’ 2026 earnings is pegged at eight cents per share, indicating a solid improvement from the loss of 24 cents in 2025. The estimate for 2027 is 88 cents per share, indicating a 1,009% year-over-year improvement.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

The earnings estimates for Energy Fuels for 2026 and 2027 have been revised downward over the past 60 days. The earnings estimates for MP Materials for both 2026 and 2027 have also moved down over the past 60 days. This is shown in the chart below. 

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

UUUU & MP: Price Performance & ValuationEnergy Fuels stock has declined 24.9% year-to-date compared with MP Materials’ 35.5% drop.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Energy Fuels is currently trading at a forward 12-month price-to-sales ratio of 15.46X. MP Materials is trading at a forward 12-month price-to-sales ratio of 12.26X.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Energy Fuels or MP Materials: Which Stock is the Better Pick?Energy Fuels and MP Materials offer different ways to participate in the development of a U.S.-centered rare-earth supply chain. MP Materials has a more concentrated rare-earth strategy, with operations spanning mining, processing and magnet manufacturing. Its rising NdPr production, planned heavy rare-earth output and expanding magnet capacity provide multiple potential growth avenues. At the same time, the company remains loss-making and faces elevated start-up costs and significant capital requirements as it builds out its downstream operations.

Energy Fuels offers greater commodity diversification through its established uranium business while simultaneously building a rare-earth platform. Its uranium production and long-term utility contracts provide an existing revenue base, while acquisitions could extend its rare-earth exposure from processing into metals, alloys and permanent magnets. However, these initiatives also increase integration and capital requirements, and the contribution from its broader rare-earth strategy is likely to develop over time.

Given the downward revisions to earnings estimates and the risks associated with their respective expansion plans, investors may prefer to wait for improved earnings visibility and clearer execution milestones before taking positions. Energy Fuels carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) while MP Materials currently holds a Zacks Rank #4 (Strong Sell).

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

MP Materials Corp. (NYSE:MP – Get Free Report)’s share price dropped 4.1% during trading on Friday . The company traded as low as $47.26 and last traded at $47.3560. Approximately 9,683,381 shares changed hands during trading, an increase of 49% from the average session volume of 6,512,358 shares. The stock had previously closed at $49.38.

Trending Headlines about MP Materials Here are the key news stories impacting MP Materials this week:

Positive Sentiment: MP Materials delivered its first rare-earth magnets from its Fort Worth facility to General Motors, an important milestone showing progress toward commercial-scale U.S. production and validating its relationship with a major automaker. MP Materials delivers first magnets to General Motors from Fort Worth factory Positive Sentiment: Apple’s reported $500 million commitment to U.S.-made rare-earth magnets could create a significant future demand opportunity for MP Materials, although the company was not identified as the sole beneficiary. Apple put $500 million behind U.S.-made rare earth magnets Neutral Sentiment: China Rare Earth Group is reportedly negotiating to take control of Shenghe Resources, which holds an indirect stake in MP Materials. The development may signal strategic interest in MP’s assets, but it also raises questions about Chinese influence and geopolitical scrutiny. China Rare Earth eyes indirect stake in MP Materials Neutral Sentiment: Freedom Broker initiated coverage of MP Materials, potentially increasing analyst visibility, although the available report does not specify a rating or price target. Freedom Broker Begins Coverage on MP Materials Negative Sentiment: MP’s second-quarter revenue surged 89% year over year and exceeded estimates, but the company continued to report an operating loss. Higher costs and ongoing investments are delaying profitability, limiting the immediate benefit of strong sales growth. MP’s Operating Losses Continue in Q2 Analyst Upgrades and Downgrades Several equities research analysts have recently commented on the stock. Needham & Company LLC dropped their target price on shares of MP Materials from $81.00 to $73.00 and set a “buy” rating for the company in a research report on Wednesday, July 22nd. Jefferies Financial Group reissued a “buy” rating on shares of MP Materials in a research note on Tuesday, September 8th. Zacks Research lowered shares of MP Materials from a “hold” rating to a “strong sell” rating in a report on Wednesday, August 26th. Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft cut their price objective on MP Materials from $70.00 to $61.00 and set a “buy” rating on the stock in a research report on Thursday, July 9th. Finally, Weiss Ratings reiterated a “sell (d-)” rating on shares of MP Materials in a report on Friday, July 17th. Two investment analysts have rated the stock with a Strong Buy rating, thirteen have assigned a Buy rating, one has given a Hold rating and two have given a Sell rating to the company. Based on data from MarketBeat.com, the stock currently has a consensus rating of “Moderate Buy” and an average price target of $76.58.

Get Our Latest Report on MP Materials The stock has a 50-day moving average of $50.97 and a two-hundred day moving average of $56.14. The company has a market cap of $8.43 billion, a P/E ratio of -139.28 and a beta of 1.94. The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.48, a quick ratio of 8.56 and a current ratio of 9.51.

MP Materials (NYSE:MP – Get Free Report) last released its earnings results on Thursday, August 6th. The company reported ($0.01) EPS for the quarter, hitting analysts’ consensus estimates of ($0.01). MP Materials had a negative return on equity of 1.21% and a negative net margin of 19.85%.The firm had revenue of $108.49 million for the quarter, compared to analysts’ expectations of $96.89 million. During the same period in the prior year, the firm posted ($0.13) earnings per share. The company’s quarterly revenue was up 89.0% on a year-over-year basis. On average, equities research analysts predict that MP Materials Corp. will post -0.12 earnings per share for the current year.

Institutional Inflows and Outflows Several hedge funds and other institutional investors have recently made changes to their positions in MP. Oak Thistle LLC purchased a new stake in MP Materials during the 2nd quarter valued at $1,543,000. Amundi increased its holdings in shares of MP Materials by 260.2% in the 1st quarter. Amundi now owns 385,001 shares of the company’s stock worth $18,580,000 after purchasing an additional 278,126 shares in the last quarter. Bleakley Financial Group LLC purchased a new position in shares of MP Materials in the fourth quarter worth $1,482,000. Myriad Asset Management Advisors LLC purchased a new position in shares of MP Materials in the fourth quarter worth $1,229,000. Finally, WMS Group LLC bought a new position in shares of MP Materials during the fourth quarter valued at $557,000. Institutional investors own 52.55% of the company’s stock.

MP Materials Company Profile (Get Free Report)

MP Materials Corp. is a rare earth materials company that owns and operates the Mountain Pass rare earth mine and processing facility in California. The site is one of the largest rare earth production facilities in the Western Hemisphere and produces rare earth concentrate, with an emphasis on neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr), materials used in high-performance permanent magnets.

The company is expanding its operations beyond mining and concentrate production into separated rare earth products and magnet manufacturing.

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NewEdge Advisors LLC increased its holdings in MP Materials Corp. (NYSE:MP – Free Report) by 135.8% in the 2nd quarter, according to its most recent filing with the SEC. The institutional investor owned 39,866 shares of the company’s stock after buying an additional 22,958 shares during the quarter. NewEdge Advisors LLC’s holdings in MP Materials were worth $2,233,000 at the end of the most recent reporting period.

Several other large investors also recently bought and sold shares of MP. IFP Advisors Inc lifted its stake in MP Materials by 15.4% during the 2nd quarter. IFP Advisors Inc now owns 40,676 shares of the company’s stock valued at $2,278,000 after acquiring an additional 5,419 shares during the period. Allworth Financial LP grew its stake in shares of MP Materials by 4.5% in the second quarter. Allworth Financial LP now owns 5,679 shares of the company’s stock worth $318,000 after acquiring an additional 243 shares during the period. Arizona State Retirement System grew its stake in shares of MP Materials by 0.8% in the second quarter. Arizona State Retirement System now owns 39,219 shares of the company’s stock worth $2,197,000 after acquiring an additional 329 shares during the period. Nykredit A S purchased a new position in shares of MP Materials during the second quarter valued at approximately $275,000. Finally, Corient Private Wealth LP raised its holdings in shares of MP Materials by 9.2% during the second quarter. Corient Private Wealth LP now owns 37,760 shares of the company’s stock valued at $2,115,000 after purchasing an additional 3,178 shares during the last quarter. 52.55% of the stock is currently owned by institutional investors.

MP Materials Price Performance Shares of NYSE:MP opened at $49.41 on Friday. The firm’s 50 day moving average price is $51.07 and its 200-day moving average price is $56.20. MP Materials Corp. has a twelve month low of $37.81 and a twelve month high of $100.25. The company has a quick ratio of 8.56, a current ratio of 9.51 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.48. The stock has a market capitalization of $8.80 billion, a PE ratio of -145.32 and a beta of 1.94.

MP Materials (NYSE:MP – Get Free Report) last announced its earnings results on Thursday, August 6th. The company reported ($0.01) earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter, meeting the consensus estimate of ($0.01). MP Materials had a negative net margin of 19.85% and a negative return on equity of 1.21%. The company had revenue of $108.49 million during the quarter, compared to analyst estimates of $96.89 million. During the same period in the previous year, the business posted ($0.13) earnings per share. The firm’s quarterly revenue was up 89.0% compared to the same quarter last year. Equities research analysts expect that MP Materials Corp. will post -0.12 EPS for the current year. Wall Street Analysts Forecast Growth A number of research analysts recently weighed in on the stock. Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft lowered their price objective on shares of MP Materials from $70.00 to $61.00 and set a “buy” rating on the stock in a research report on Thursday, July 9th. Needham & Company LLC cut their target price on shares of MP Materials from $81.00 to $73.00 and set a “buy” rating for the company in a research report on Wednesday, July 22nd. JPMorgan Chase & Co. decreased their target price on shares of MP Materials from $75.00 to $60.00 and set an “overweight” rating for the company in a research note on Wednesday, July 29th. Jefferies Financial Group reissued a “buy” rating on shares of MP Materials in a report on Tuesday, September 8th. Finally, Barclays dropped their price target on MP Materials from $69.00 to $65.00 and set an “overweight” rating on the stock in a research note on Thursday, July 16th. Two equities research analysts have rated the stock with a Strong Buy rating, thirteen have given a Buy rating, one has assigned a Hold rating and two have given a Sell rating to the stock. According to data from MarketBeat, the company currently has an average rating of “Moderate Buy” and a consensus price target of $76.58.

Check Out Our Latest Stock Report on MP

MP Materials Profile (Free Report)

MP Materials Corp. is a rare earth materials company that owns and operates the Mountain Pass rare earth mine and processing facility in California. The site is one of the largest rare earth production facilities in the Western Hemisphere and produces rare earth concentrate, with an emphasis on neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr), materials used in high-performance permanent magnets.

The company is expanding its operations beyond mining and concentrate production into separated rare earth products and magnet manufacturing.

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A refinery study just gave Critical Metals investors a concrete dollar figure to argue over, and the stock is moving while its better-established peers barely flinch. Whether that gap reflects genuine rerating or a speculative overshoot depends on what happens…

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Shares of Critical Metals Corp. (NASDAQ:CRML) are up 5% to $6.65 in early Wednesday trading, after the company released further details on its mine-to-metals plan for the Tanbreez rare earth project in Greenland. The catalyst is a refinery study that puts a dollar range on future processing revenue, giving investors something quantitative to weigh on an otherwise pre-revenue name. The move stands out on a session when the broader rare earth complex is barely stirring.

The VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF (NYSEARCA:REMX) is up 1% to $69.20, and the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY) is up 0.3% to $759.52. The peer moves are muted, with MP Materials (NYSE:MP) stock up 0.8% to $49.54 and USA Rare Earth (NASDAQ:USAR) stock up 1% to $15.56. Critical Metals is outrunning its own sector rather than riding it, a pattern that reads as name-specific news rather than a rare earth rerating.

Refinery Study Puts a Range on Tanbreez Revenue Critical Metals reported near-complete dissolution of eudialyte concentrate into 19 ultra-high-purity rare earth products, framing the results as validation of an integrated processing plan rather than a straight mining pitch. The company’s refinery study projects annual refinery revenue of $1.8 billion to $2.2 billion. Critical Metals stresses these are preliminary modelling figures, subject to further engineering, metallurgical test work, market conditions, permitting and a final investment decision that has not yet been made.

A proposed refinery is structured as a Romanian joint venture that would receive half of Tanbreez concentrate production under an existing term sheet, with Critical Metals framing a European Union and NATO location as a Western supply chain answer to Chinese processing dominance. Critical Metals has also signed non-binding offtake term sheets with Ucore, REalloys, FPCU, and TQB for the concentrate itself. Executive Chairman and CEO Tony Sage stated the study results represent “a significant evolution in the Tanbreez value proposition” and reinforce “our commitment to a true mine-to-metals strategy.”

MP Materials Is the Reality Check The subdued response from MP Materials is instructive. MP Materials already operates an integrated U.S. rare earth business spanning the Mountain Pass mine and the Independence magnet facility in Fort Worth, and it carries a market capitalization of $8.76 billion. A pre-revenue developer’s projection doesn’t reset that narrative, and USA Rare Earth, itself scaling a hydrometallurgical facility in Colorado and a magnet plant in Oklahoma, is inching higher without matching Critical Metals’ pace.

Critical Metals is being rerated on a study rather than on production, and the company remains pre-revenue in the exploration and development stage. Every figure in the refinery model is preliminary and years from any cash-flow test. What the release changes is Critical Metals’ claim on the value chain, because processing Tanbreez concentrate in Romania rather than selling it would move Critical Metals from a deposit owner toward a supplier of finished rare earth products, closer in profile to MP Materials than to a pure exploration play.

Greenland’s rare earth potential has moved from geological curiosity to geopolitical talking point, and Critical Metals sits near the front of that shift with the Tanbreez deposit. Locating downstream processing in Romania sharpens the Western supply chain framing, because an EU member state refining Greenlandic ore keeps the value chain outside Chinese jurisdiction end to end. That storyline is doing real work in today’s rerating of Critical Metals, even without production to point to yet.

What to Watch Next The nearer, more binary event for Critical Metals is corporate rather than technical. European Lithium securityholders and optionholders are scheduled to meet on October 22 in West Leederville, Western Australia, to vote on the schemes of arrangement under which Critical Metals would acquire the company. Critical Metals expects implementation in November subject to securityholder and court approval.

That vote carries real weight. European Lithium controls the corporate wrapper that would give Critical Metals a cleaner path forward on Tanbreez, and a rejection would force a rewrite of both the ownership arithmetic and the refinery story that just moved the stock. A clean approval sets Critical Metals up to spend the balance of 2026 executing on the study rather than defending it.

Critical Metals investors can watch for whether today’s gains hold once the refinery numbers have been digested and attention rotates to the European Lithium vote. The Tanbreez economics are a long-cycle story built on preliminary modelling; the acquisition vote is a discrete near-term event. Given the pre-revenue profile and the stock’s elevated beta, traders weighing their CRML stock exposure here should keep their positions sized accordingly.

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

Amundi increased its holdings in MP Materials Corp. (NYSE:MP – Free Report) by 32.5% in the second quarter, according to the company in its most recent Form 13F filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The institutional investor owned 509,946 shares of the company’s stock after buying an additional 124,945 shares during the period. Amundi owned 0.29% of MP Materials worth $28,562,000 as of its most recent filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Other institutional investors have also made changes to their positions in the company. Hancock Prospecting Pty Ltd grew its stake in MP Materials by 7.2% during the third quarter. Hancock Prospecting Pty Ltd now owns 14,861,212 shares of the company’s stock worth $996,741,000 after buying an additional 1,000,000 shares in the last quarter. California State Teachers Retirement System increased its holdings in shares of MP Materials by 5,523.6% during the second quarter. California State Teachers Retirement System now owns 9,225,687 shares of the company’s stock worth $516,731,000 after buying an additional 9,061,633 shares in the last quarter. State Street Corp lifted its stake in shares of MP Materials by 13.2% in the 4th quarter. State Street Corp now owns 6,597,885 shares of the company’s stock valued at $333,325,000 after acquiring an additional 769,517 shares during the last quarter. BNP Paribas Financial Markets boosted its holdings in shares of MP Materials by 76.3% during the 2nd quarter. BNP Paribas Financial Markets now owns 2,921,542 shares of the company’s stock valued at $97,200,000 after acquiring an additional 1,264,243 shares in the last quarter. Finally, Van ECK Associates Corp boosted its stake in shares of MP Materials by 71.6% during the fourth quarter. Van ECK Associates Corp now owns 2,834,914 shares of the company’s stock valued at $143,220,000 after purchasing an additional 1,183,307 shares in the last quarter. 52.55% of the stock is currently owned by institutional investors.

MP Materials Price Performance MP opened at $50.57 on Friday. MP Materials Corp. has a 1 year low of $37.81 and a 1 year high of $100.25. The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.48, a current ratio of 9.51 and a quick ratio of 8.56. The company has a market capitalization of $9.01 billion, a price-to-earnings ratio of -148.73 and a beta of 1.94. The firm’s fifty day moving average price is $51.27 and its two-hundred day moving average price is $56.46.

MP Materials (NYSE:MP – Get Free Report) last announced its earnings results on Thursday, August 6th. The company reported ($0.01) EPS for the quarter, meeting the consensus estimate of ($0.01). MP Materials had a negative net margin of 19.85% and a negative return on equity of 1.21%. The company had revenue of $108.49 million during the quarter, compared to the consensus estimate of $96.89 million. During the same quarter in the prior year, the company posted ($0.13) earnings per share. The firm’s revenue for the quarter was up 89.0% on a year-over-year basis. As a group, analysts anticipate that MP Materials Corp. will post -0.12 earnings per share for the current fiscal year. Analyst Ratings Changes Several research analysts have issued reports on MP shares. Jefferies Financial Group restated a “buy” rating on shares of MP Materials in a report on Tuesday. Zacks Research downgraded MP Materials from a “hold” rating to a “strong sell” rating in a research note on Wednesday, August 26th. Citigroup reiterated a “positive” rating on shares of MP Materials in a report on Wednesday, July 15th. DA Davidson reissued a “buy” rating and issued a $82.00 price objective on shares of MP Materials in a research note on Monday, August 24th. Finally, Morgan Stanley restated an “overweight” rating on shares of MP Materials in a report on Wednesday, August 19th. Two investment analysts have rated the stock with a Strong Buy rating, thirteen have given a Buy rating and two have issued a Sell rating to the company’s stock. According to data from MarketBeat, the stock presently has an average rating of “Moderate Buy” and an average target price of $78.21.

Check Out Our Latest Stock Analysis on MP Materials

About MP Materials (Free Report)

MP Materials Corp. is a rare earth materials company that owns and operates the Mountain Pass rare earth mine and processing facility in California. The site is one of the largest rare earth production facilities in the Western Hemisphere and produces rare earth concentrate, with an emphasis on neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr), materials used in high-performance permanent magnets.

The company is expanding its operations beyond mining and concentrate production into separated rare earth products and magnet manufacturing.

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MP Materials Corp. (MP) Jefferies Global Industrials Conference 2026 September 9, 2026 10:50 AM EDT

Company Participants

Ryan Corbett - Chief Financial Officer

Conference Call Participants

Laurence Alexander - Jefferies LLC, Research Division

Presentation

Laurence Alexander
Jefferies LLC, Research Division

So good morning. It's Laurence Alexander with the Jefferies Chemicals team. It's my pleasure to introduce Ryan Corbett with MP Materials. We're going to do a fairly loose and goosey fireside chat. If anybody has any questions, please feel free to chime in. But for those who are less familiar with MP, if you wouldn't mind just starting off with a very quick overview.

Ryan Corbett
Chief Financial Officer

Sure, absolutely. Thanks for having us again. Appreciate it. So for those of you that are less familiar, MP Materials is the Western world's largest producer of rare earth materials. We're the only scaled producer of NdPr oxide in the Western Hemisphere and are the only scaled business with a fully vertically integrated platform with demonstrated capabilities from mining through to magnet manufacturing.

We have been on a journey of building the business in stages. We're at the point where we are nearly complete on the optimization and growth of production of NdPr oxide at our Mountain Pass asset, which is Mountain Pass is really the cornerstone of the rare earth industry. It's where much of it was born, and it is such a tremendous asset for us to build this platform on top of. We've taken our successes in the upstream and midstream side of the business and have integrated downstream into rare earth permanent magnets, which if I was at this conference 3 years ago, I might start explaining to everybody what magnets are. I think today, now most people know what they are and know how incredibly important they are, which is a major sea change, I think, for

MP Materials (NYSE:MP) is up 4% to trade at $55,80 this morning, after a Reuters report indicated China has been reportedly declining rare earth shipments  to the U.S. The move has domestic rare earth suppliers  MP and USA Rare Earth (USAR) higher, with the latter also up 5.3%.

LAS VEGAS--(BUSINESS WIRE)---- $MP #rareearth--MP Materials Corp. (NYSE: MP) today announced that Ryan Corbett, Chief Financial Officer, will participate in Jefferies Industrials Conference on Wednesday, September 9, 2026, at 10:50 a.m. Eastern Time.A live webcast and replay will be available at https://investors.mpmaterials.com/.About MP MaterialsMP Materials (NYSE: MP) is America's only fully integrated rare earth producer with capabilities spanning the entire supply chain—from mining and processing to advanced.

Key Takeaways MP Materials returned to positive operating cash flow in Q2 after five straight quarters of declines.Capital spending surged to about $230 million, pushing Q2 free cash flow to a $223.5 million outflow.Rising production costs and SG&A are pressuring cash flow as downstream expansion continues. MP Materials Corp. (MP - Free Report) returned to positive operating cash flow in the second quarter of 2026 after five consecutive quarters of declines. Operating cash flow was $6.8 million against an outflow of $3.6 million in the year-ago quarter. 

However, free cash flow was a negative $223.5 million in the second quarter compared with a negative $20.5 million in the year-ago quarter. This was due to a sharp increase in capital expenditures, which rose to around $230 million in the second quarter from $16.8 million in the year-ago quarter. The second quarter was particularly capital-intensive, following $77.4 million of spending in the first quarter of 2026.

Capital expenditures are related primarily to machinery, equipment and assets under construction to support both the company’s Independence Facility and 10X Facility, as well as various projects at Mountain Pass, including the heavy rare earth elements (HREE) facility and the chlor-alkali facilities.

Backed by the improvement in the second quarter, MP Materials generated $4.9 million of operating cash flow in the first six-month period of 2026, an improvement from the outflow of $66.9 million in the year-ago period. This was supported by higher product sales, $93.3 million received from the Department of War (DoW) under the Price Protection Agreement (PPA) and $19 million related to the 45X credit claimed on the company’s 2024 federal tax return. These benefits were partly offset by the absence of a $50 million deferred-revenue inflow recorded in the prior-year period related to a prepayment for magnetic precursor products.

Free cash flow remained negative at $302.8 million in the first half of 2026 compared with a negative $114 million a year earlier. Capital expenditures surged to approximately $307.7 million from $47.3 million in the year-ago period. 

MP Materials had last reported both positive operating and free cash flow in 2022, at $343.5 million and $22 million, respectively, benefiting from elevated rare earth prices and strong demand. Cash generation weakened sharply thereafter. Operating cash flow fell 82% to $62.7 million in 2023 and another 79% to $13.3 million in 2024, reflecting lower rare earth prices, inventory accumulation and investments to support downstream expansion. In 2025, the company reported $155.8 million in operating cash outflows and negative free cash flow of $304 million. 

MP Materials is seeing higher production costs as producing separated products is more costly than producing rare earth concentrates. Selling, general and administrative expenses have also increased as it expanded its workforce to support the downstream expansion. These factors have driven up operating expenses, keeping profits and cash flows under pressure.

Looking ahead, MP’s ongoing ramp-up of separated rare earth production at Mountain Pass, along with the expansion of magnetic precursor and magnet output at the Independence Facility, is expected to keep costs elevated in 2026. Ongoing investment in downstream capabilities is also likely to keep SG&A expenses elevated, maintaining pressure on near-term profitability and cash flows. 

On the positive side, neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) production volumes are increasing as process optimization and ramp-up efforts progress. Higher sales volumes and support from the DoW PPA could help partially offset margin pressure and gradually stabilize MP Materials’ cash flow profile.

MP’s Price Performance, Valuation & EstimatesMP Materials’ shares have declined 20.6% in a year against the industry’s 51.6% growth. Other names in the space, like Energy Fuels Inc. (UUUU - Free Report) and USA Rare Earth Inc. (USAR - Free Report) , have gained 36.1% and 15.6%, respectively.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

MP is trading at a forward 12-month price/sales multiple of 15.43X, a significant premium to the industry’s 1.41X. Energy Fuels and USA Rare Earth are trading at 19.19X and 9.44X, respectively.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MP Materials’ 2026 earnings is pegged at 12 cents per share, indicating an improvement from the loss of 24 cents in 2025. The estimate for 2027 is 91 cents per share, indicating a 658.3% year-over-year improvement.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

The estimate for both 2026 and 2027 has, however, moved down in the past 60 days, as shown in the chart below.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

MP Materials (MP -4.91%) and Enterprise Products Partners (EPD -0.08%) operate as indispensable, hard-to-replicate infrastructure assets at the very top of vital industrial supply chains, but the similarity ends there.

Neither stock is actually boring, though mining and energy stocks are often stuck with that label. MP Materials is the leading rare-earth mining company in the U.S. It also processes rare earths, mainly for permanent magnets. It was founded in 2017 and went public via a merger with a special-purpose acquisition company (SPAC) in 2020.

Midstream energy pipeline operator Enterprise Products Partners was founded in 1968 and went public in 1998. Its revenue comes from the toll-like fees that it charges users of its pipelines.

When you compare each company's growth, the choice comes down to MP Materials' high-beta top-line acceleration versus Enterprise Products Partners' steady, utility-like income expansion.

Image source: Getty Images.

MP Materials is seeing huge top-line growth Shares of MP Materials, though well off their 52-week high of $100.25, are up more than 15% so far this year. The company isn't profitable yet, but thanks to huge revenue growth, it could get there soon.

Premium Feature

Moneyball Superscore

68/100

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The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) provided the company with early research and development funding and serves as a primary capital partner and commercial backstop for MP Materials, de-risking its expansion from a mining company into an integrated domestic rare-earth processor. That includes a $150 million loan and a $400 million equity investment from the DoD to MP Materials in 2025.

In the second quarter, the company reported revenue of $108.5 million, up 89% year over year. It also reported an earnings per share (EPS) loss of $0.11, a 42% improvement over the same period last year. Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) were $28.5 million, compared to an adjusted EBITDA loss of $12.5 million in Q2 2025.

The key to the turnaround is the U.S. government's public partnership with MP Materials on rare metals and the company's pivot from selling unrefined rare-earth concentrate to China and moving to fully refined Neodymium-Praseodymium (NdPr) oxides, metals, and magnet manufacturing.

Enterprise Products Partners is boring -- in a good way Enterprise Products Partners' shares are up a little more than 21% so far this year. The company's revenue comes from charging fees for transporting, processing, and storing energy products, including natural gas, natural gas liquids, and crude oil, through its 50,000 miles of pipelines, liquid storage facilities, and marine export terminals.

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In Q2, Enterprise reported revenue of $18.3 billion, up 60.7% year over year. EPS was $0.84, up 27.3% over Q2 2025.

The company is a favorite of income-oriented investors because of its high-yielding dividend. Its yield, at its current share price, is around 5.66%, slightly more than five times that of the S&P 500 average. Because of that high yield, investors look at the company's distributable cash flow (DCF) to judge the safety of its dividend. In the quarter, it reported a record DCF of $2.3 billion, up 21% year over year, and providing 1.9x coverage of the dividend.

The company has raised its quarterly dividend for 28 consecutive years, including a 2.8% raise this year to $0.56 per share.

The choice depends on your situation Both stocks offer strong cases for investment. MP Materials is seeing strong revenue growth and, thanks to a significant lift from the DoD, it's getting closer to profitability. Like any mining stock, particularly in rare-earth mining, it poses risks due to the high costs of mining and processing.

For my money, Enterprise Products Partners is a better investment. Its revenue streams are more stable and diverse, and its rate of revenue growth, though lower than MP Materials', is hardly lacking.

On top of that, its dividend is well covered and has steady growth, providing an extra layer of security for investors.

MP Materials (MP -4.50%) was America's favorite rare earth mining stock last year -- or, at least, one of the Trump administration's favorite rare earth miners.

Indeed, MP stock tripled in 2025, with much of those gains occurring after the Pentagon's public-private partnership with MP was announced last July. At one point last year, MP was up more than 400%, before giving back much of those gains last October. Fast forward to today, and MP Materials is trading about 45% lower than its 52-week high.

But don't let that red number fool you: Despite the stock's sell-off, which was really just a valuation correction, MP is growing stronger and healthier. The stock might not repeat last year's performance. Yet if its recent earnings tell us anything, it's that MP deserves a second look. Here's what you should know.

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MP is getting more value from Mountain Pass The big takeaway from MP's second quarter was revenue growth. MP managed to pull in about $108 million last quarter, a roughly 89% positive change year-over-year, while adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) swung from a $12.5 loss to positive $28.5 million.

The company also reported $17.6 million in Pentagon-related price-protection income. Remember how the Department of Defense agreed last year to a price floor of $110 per kilogram for MP's neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr)? Well, market prices for this vital rare earth compound apparently fell below that level, and the government made up the difference in a roughly $18 million payment.

Doubling quarterly revenue was impressive, but it's not the reason this quarter left a strong impression on me. That's owed to the fact that MP is now selling a much more refined NdPr product, while subsequently profiting more from the NdPr that it's selling. That might sound confusing, so let me put it into perspective.

Image source: MP Materials.

For much of its life, MP sold rare-earth concentrate to Chinese companies, which would then use chemicals to free the rare-earth elements from the ore. Rare-earth concentrate has valuable rare earth elements, but since they need to be freed, the concentrate is worth less than selling those rare-earth elements outright.

Starting last April, however, MP began to cease selling concentrate, due mainly to the trade war between the U.S. and China. The benefit of that is that MP is now processing the concentrate in-house. This requires more work, but the resulting product is worth more money.

Just consider this: In Q2 2025, MP earned about $25 million in NdPr oxide and metal revenue, with about $12 million from concentrate revenue. This last quarter, it had zero revenue from concentrate sales, and $95 million from oxide and metal revenue. Big jump right? And in the right direction, too.

MP Material's economics are improving, and its raking in more revenue. For me, the next test is whether its second magnet factory (10X) is on track for commissioning in 2028, as well as prove later that it can scale magnets production significantly. I would not buy MP with the expectation that it will triple in 12 months like it did in 2025, but opening a position at today's price could be worthwhile if you want exposure to American rare-earth mining.

Rare-earth elements are central to advanced technologies, including those used in defense. For decades, China has tightened its grip on the mining and processing of these crucial materials, raising concerns among U.S. policymakers.

Research from The Motley Fool shows that China accounts for roughly 70% of rare-earth extraction and 90% of rare-earth processing. In response, there is a renewed focus on boosting domestic mining and processing of rare-earth elements.

Two rare-earth companies generating buzz are MP Materials (MP +9.10%) and The Metals Company (TMC +20.66%). Both companies could be key players in helping the U.S. secure rare-earth elements, but one in particular stands out as the smarter investment choice that could pay off sooner rather than later.

Image source: Getty Images.

MP Materials has this key advantage over The Metals Company When you compare MP Materials and The Metals Company (TMC), the differences are stark. MP Materials operates the Mountain Pass rare-earth mine and processing facility, the only active rare-earth mining and processing site of scale in North America. In contrast, TMC is a development company exploring the collection and processing of polymetallic nodules on the seafloor, a practice known as deep-sea mining.

MP Materials already has mining and processing capabilities and is expanding its downstream processing capabilities, where it manufactures powerful magnets used in many modern technologies.

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Another distinct advantage for MP Materials is its massive agreement with the Department of Defense. As part of the deal, the DoD entered into a price protection agreement that guarantees a minimum price of $110 per kilogram for MP's neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) product. In Q2 2026 alone, this agreement generated $17.6 million in price protection income for MP Materials.

In addition to its partnership with the DoD, MP also has long-term agreements with General Motors and Apple for its permanent magnets.

The Metals Company faces a couple of key risks In comparison, TMC is looking to mine the deep ocean floor for resource-rich polymetallic nodules. These nodules are rich in nickel, copper, cobalt, and manganese, and the company is targeting the Clarion Clipperton Zone in the Pacific.

This region is rich in resources. According to a pre-feasibility study and initial assessment by TMC, the combined estimated resource Net Present Value (NPV) could be $23.6 billion, with undiscounted lifetime revenue of up to $369 billion.

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That said, TMC faces several legal hurdles. For example, the company is benefiting from a presidential executive order by President Donald Trump designed to expedite deep-sea mining permitting. However, the International Seabed Authority (ISA) has not yet finalized exploitation regulations, and there is debate over whether the U.S. even has the authority to issue mining permits in these waters.

This rare-earth stock is a better buy right now Rare-earth mining and processing have become a crucial component of national security, helping the U.S. shore up its supply chains.

The Metals Company is looking to carve out its place in the deep-sea mining space, but legal hurdles and other technical hurdles, like the feasibility of deep-sea mining at scale, remain and make it a risky stock for investors buying today.

On the other hand, as the U.S. builds up its mining and processing capabilities, MP Materials is already well positioned to help the country meet its needs immediately and will grow into an even larger player once its 10X facility comes online in 2028.

Having previously outlined why I think Freeport-McMoRan is a better stock to buy on a risk/reward basis than MP Materials (MP +5.53%), it might seem strange to argue that the latter is also an attractive stock to buy. At least it is for a certain type of investor, particularly those who believe that trade tensions with China are structural and enduring.

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The case for MP Materials stock
First, there are the numbers, then the belief in those numbers, and finally, the underlying tenets that drive that belief. In this case, the numbers are the Wall Street analyst consensus valuations based on the current price and the analyst consensus for earnings and cash flow from Visible Alpha, as well as the current price of $55.66.

As you can see, it will be a few years before the stock moves into value territory, let alone starts generating cash.

MP Materials

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

Price-to-earnings

N/A

69.2x

46.5x

34.7x

23.6x

Price-to-free cash flow

N/A

N/A

N/A

37.7x

21.3x

Enterprise value (EV) to earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA)

72.4x

25.6x

19.8x

15.7x

12.1x

Data source: Visible Alpha

In addition, as discussed in the Freeport-McMoRan/MP Materials piece, there are substantive risks in the operational pathway to hit these numbers, such as successfully constructing a rare-magnet manufacturing facility (10X), reliance on the Mountain Pass, environmental and regulatory concerns, and technological and operational challenges in ramping up rare-earth magnet production.

Image source: Getty Images.

What you have to believe to buy the stock
Ultimately, investors have to believe that all of these things will progress smoothly, and most importantly, that the trade tensions with China (the dominant player in rare-earth materials and magnets) will be such as to continue to encourage U.S. government support for MP Materials, as well as premium pricing on domestically produced and non-China-sourced rare-earth magnets.

If you are looking to buy a stock to manifest that belief and are comfortable with MP Materials' operations risk, the stock is highly attractive.

Lee Samaha has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends MP Materials. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Shares of MP Materials Corp. (NYSE:MP) are trading higher Friday afternoon as investors react to new federal trade and defense initiatives expected to strengthen domestic supply chains.

MP Materials stock is surging to new heights today. Why are MP shares rallying? Trump Administration Actions Boost Demand Outlook for Rare EarthsThe Trump administration announced tariffs on foreign-made drones and critical components, alongside expanded agreements with major defense prime contractors Boeing and RTX to scale up interceptor missile production.

These regulatory and procurement policy shifts have reinforced the long-term demand outlook for rare earth elements and critical minerals. MP Materials operates Mountain Pass, the sole active rare earth mining and processing site in the United States.

Elements produced by the company are essential components in high-performance permanent magnets, military ordnance, guidance systems and unmanned aerial vehicles.

Defense Initiatives Support Strategic Domestic Supply Chain FocusThe combination of trade protections on foreign aerospace hardware and heightened Pentagon missile production underscores the strategic necessity of onshore critical mineral processing.

Increased defense consumption potentially enhances long-term revenue visibility for domestic producers as prime contractors seek supply security for magnetic alloys and raw materials.

MP Shares Climb Friday AfternoonMP Price Action: MP Materials shares were up 6.27% at $59.15 at the time of publication on Friday, according to Benzinga Pro data.

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