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Key Takeaways MP Materials is favored for stronger long-term growth despite near-term cost pressures.MP's U.S. magnet expansion and government-backed projects strengthen its competitive position.Lynas has commercialized heavy rare earths and secured supply deals with pricing floors. MP Materials (MP - Free Report) and Lynas Rare Earths Limited (LYSDY - Free Report) are among the most prominent players in the global rare earth supply chain and are expected to play key roles in the West’s efforts to secure critical mineral independence and reduce reliance on Chinese supply. 

Las Vegas, NV-based MP Materials is the only fully integrated rare earth producer in the United States. It has capabilities covering the entire supply chain, from mining and processing to advanced metallization and magnet manufacturing. MP has a market capitalization of $8 billion. Perth, Australia-based Lynas, valued at around $11.2 billion, engages in the exploration, development, mining, extraction and processing of rare earth minerals in Australia and Malaysia. 

Rare earths are crucial to the production of high-performance magnets used in EVs, defense and high-tech applications. For investors looking to tap into the long-term growth of the rare earth sector, the key question is which stock one should bet on — MP or LYSDY. To make an informed decision, let us analyze their fundamentals, growth potential and key challenges.

The Case for MP MaterialsMP Materials owns and operates the Mountain Pass mine in California, the only large-scale rare earth mining and processing facility in North America. It also owns the Independence facility in Fort Worth, TX, where it manufactures magnetic precursor products and began producing neodymium-iron-boron (NdFeB) permanent magnets in December 2025.

The company made significant strategic progress in 2025, including a long-term agreement to supply U.S.-made recycled rare-earth magnets to Apple and a public-private partnership with the U.S. Department of War (DoW) aimed at accelerating a domestic magnet supply chain.

Backed by government incentives, the company is constructing the second domestic magnet manufacturing facility (the 10X Facility) in Northlake, TX, which will lift its total U.S. magnet capacity to 10,000 metric tons. MP is also expanding operations at the Independence facility and scaled heavy rare earth separation commissioning activities are set to begin soon at Mountain Pass.

Operationally, MP continues to scale production and downstream manufacturing capabilities. In first-quarter 2026, the company produced a record 917 metric tons of neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr), up 63% year over year, driven by higher separated-product output. Rare-earth oxide concentrate production also reached a quarterly record of 12,983 metric tons, up 6% year over year due to improved recoveries and operational efficiencies.

Total company revenues rose 49% year over year to $90.6 million in the quarter, supported by stronger performance in both the Materials and Magnetics segments. MP also recognized $42.3 million in income related to its price protection agreement with the DoW.

However, profitability remains under pressure as the company transitions toward higher-value separated rare-earth products and magnetic materials. Cost of sales increased 52% in the quarter, while SG&A expenses rose 39%. Start-up costs surged more than 500% due to magnet production and chlor-alkali facility ramp-ups, while advanced project and development expenses climbed 302%. 

MP Materials reported an operating loss of $24 million in the first quarter of 2026 compared with the year-ago loss of $34.8 million. The company reported adjusted earnings of three cents per share against the year-ago quarter’s loss of 12 cents. Looking ahead, the company expects additional cost pressures as production scales. Start-up costs are also likely to increase further in the coming quarters.

The Case for LynasThe company’s operations are anchored by the high-grade Mt Weld mine in Western Australia. Material from Mt Weld is processed at facilities in Kalgoorlie and the Lynas Malaysia advanced materials plant in Kuantan. Lynas is also developing a Heavy Rare Earth (HRE) processing facility in Texas under a U.S. DoW contract.

Lynas achieved a milestone in 2025 with the production of dysprosium oxide (Dy) and terbium oxide (Tb) on the new production line at Lynas Malaysia. It marked the first commercial production of separated HRE for Lynas and also the first production outside China in decades. 

Lynas reported NdPr production of 1,996 tons in the third quarter of fiscal 2026 (ended March 31, 2026), representing a 32% year-over-year increase. The company also produced eight tons of dysprosium and terbium during the quarter. In March 2026, the company produced samarium oxide, a month ahead of target. This first production of samarium oxide sets Lynas apart as a commercial producer and supplier of both light and heavy rare earths.

Samarium oxide is in high demand for use in high-performance magnets for electronics and aerospace, as well as optical, catalyst and medical applications. Lynas expects to deliver annual initial production of around 400 tons with more upside, once its additional HRE separation capacity is constructed and operational.

Revenues surged 115% to AUD 265 million ($186 million) for the third quarter of fiscal 2026, driven by higher NdPr and REO volumes and stronger NdPr pricing.

Strategically, Lynas continues to secure long-term demand visibility. In March 2026, the company announced the signing of a binding Letter of Intent to finalize a rare earth oxide supply agreement with the U.S. government. This will support the U.S. industrial base and the U.S. government’s rare earths supply-chain resilience efforts. Per the terms, around $96 million previously allocated to the construction of an HRE facility in Texas will now be used to purchase light and heavy rare earth oxide products from Lynas’ existing facilities over a four-year period. The floor price for the supply of NdPr oxide will be $110 per kg.

The company also signed two important agreements with its Japanese partners, Japan Australia Rare Earths B.V. (“JARE”), which provide firm offtake commitments, pricing floors and exposure to upside pricing. The renewal of Lynas Malaysia’s operating license for 10 years in March 2026 significantly enhances regulatory certainty compared with prior shorter-term renewals.

Having largely completed its Lynas 2025 growth plan, which expanded capacity, improved efficiency and enabled HRE production, the company is now focused on its “Towards 2030” strategy. Its two focal points are optimizing performance from the Lynas 2025 capital investments and expanding its resource and scale, boosting downstream capacity and expanding in the metal and magnet supply chain. Lynas continues to develop partnerships with metal and magnet makers to expand the metal and magnet supply chain. 

How do Estimates Compare for MP & LYSDY?The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MP Materials’ fiscal 2026 earnings is pegged at 22 cents per share, indicating a turnaround performance from the loss of 24 cents in 2025. The estimate for MP Materials’ 2027 earnings is pegged at $1.04 per share, implying 373.4% year-over-year growth. 

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Lynas’ fiscal 2026 earnings (ending June 2026) is pegged at 21 cents per share, indicating a substantial increase from earnings of one cent in fiscal 2025. The fiscal 2027 estimate of 48 cents indicates 129% year-over-year growth. 

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Both estimates for MP Materials’ 2026 and 2027 have been revised downward over the past 90 days. Estimates for Lynas’ fiscal 2026 have moved down in the past 90 days, while the estimates for fiscal 2027 have moved up. This is shown in the charts below.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

MP vs. LYSDY: Price Performance & ValuationOver the past three months, MP Materials stock has declined 31.2% compared with Lynas’ 19.8% fall. 

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MP Materials is currently trading at a forward 12-month price-to-sales ratio of 12.54 while Lynas is trading at a lower 9.53.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

MP Materials or Lynas: Which Stock is the Better Buy?Both MP Materials and Lynas are strategically positioned to benefit from the robust long-term demand outlook for rare earths. MP continues to enhance its competitive position through government-backed initiatives, expanding magnet manufacturing capacity and greater downstream integration, all of which strengthen its long-term growth prospects. However, its ongoing investments and capacity expansion continue to weigh on costs and near-term profitability.

Lynas has executed well operationally, successfully commercializing heavy rare earth production and securing long-term supply agreements with favorable pricing mechanisms. Nevertheless, despite its operational progress, its projected earnings growth lags MP Materials, whose longer-term growth potential remains stronger despite near-term cost pressures.

MP Materials currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), while Lynas has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

Key Takeaways MP links Mountain Pass, Independence and 10X to build a domestic rare earth supply chain.Policy support boosts demand visibility through price protection, incentives and long-term offtake.Rising costs, working-capital needs and unfinished ramps keep MP's margin outlook uncertain. MP Materials Corp. (MP - Free Report) sits near the center of a U.S. push to localize rare earth processing and magnet manufacturing. The investor question is no longer limited to mine output.

The bigger issue is whether MP can turn strategic relevance into repeatable earnings power while it builds a domestic supply chain.

Why MP Materials Fits the Reshoring TrendMP’s model fits reshoring because it spans more than mining. The company owns Mountain Pass in California, the only rare earth mine and processing site of scale in North America, and operates the Independence facility in Fort Worth, TX.

Mountain Pass supports mining, concentration and separation. Independence produces rare earth metal, alloy and magnetic precursor products, while the planned 10X campus in Northlake, TX, would add more domestic magnet capacity.

Albemarle Corporation (ALB - Free Report) , a lithium and specialty chemicals producer, gives investors another way to view processing depth in strategic materials. Cameco Corporation (CCJ - Free Report) , a uranium and nuclear fuel company, reflects interest in secure energy supply chains.

How MP is Moving Beyond Commodity ExposureMP is moving away from a simpler concentrate sales model. It stopped rare earth concentrate sales to Chinese customers in July 2025 and now focuses Materials segment revenues mainly on neodymium-praseodymium oxide and metal.

That shift matters because value creation increasingly depends on processing depth. In the first quarter of 2026, Materials revenues rose to $72.2 million, while neodymium-praseodymium oxide and metal revenues reached $71.1 million.

The downstream transition is also taking shape. Independence began generating revenues from magnetic precursor sales to General Motors in the first quarter of 2025 and started neodymium-iron-boron permanent magnet manufacturing in December 2025.

What Policy Support Means for MP GrowthPolicy support has become central to MP’s growth setup. The company entered definitive agreements with the United States Department of War in July 2025 to support a domestic rare earth magnet supply chain.

Those agreements call for expansion of Independence, construction of the 10X facility and extension of heavy rare earth refining capability at Mountain Pass. The Department of War agreed to purchase magnets from 10X, or approve commercial syndication, and guaranteed a minimum EBITDA level for that plant.

MP also implemented a price protection agreement in the fourth quarter of 2025 with a $110-per-kilogram floor for eligible neodymium-praseodymium products through 2035. The Northlake project is supported by roughly $200 million in state and local incentives and a 10-year Pentagon offtake commitment.

This support can improve demand visibility and reduce downside. It also adds contractual obligations, approval requirements and dependence on government program execution.

Why MP Materials Faces a Tougher Margin EquationThe domestic buildout brings costs that investors cannot ignore. MP has reported operating losses for 11 consecutive quarters as it shifts toward higher-value separated products.

Cost of sales climbed 52% in the first quarter of 2026 because of higher volumes of neodymium-praseodymium oxide, metal and magnetic precursor products. These products carry higher per-unit costs than rare earth concentrates because they require chemical reagents, labor, maintenance and other consumables.

Operating expenses are also rising. Selling, general and administrative expenses increased 39.2% in the first quarter, mainly because of higher personnel costs. Start-up costs surged 503% as magnet production and chlor-alkali facilities ramped.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MP Materials’ 2026 earnings is pegged at 22 cents per share, indicating an improvement from the loss of 24 cents in 2025. The estimate for 2027 is $1.04 per share, indicating a 372% year-over-year improvement.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

However, both the estimates have been revised downward, as shown in the chart below.

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Working capital remains part of the equation. Higher trade receivables, inventory needs and deferred revenues show that cash conversion depends on timely shipment, qualification and customer acceptance across newer product lines.

Shares of MP have declined 18.9% in the past three months against the industry’s 9.6% fall.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

How MP Scores Reflect a Trend-Driven TradeMP’s reshoring appeal is real, but the stock setup remains mixed. The company has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), which fits a business with policy support, improving operating traction and meaningful execution risk. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

The Style Scores show the same split. MP has a Momentum Score of A, suggesting stronger market interest around the theme and recent estimate activity. Its Value Score of F and Growth Score of D point to caution on valuation and fundamental consistency.

The VGM Score of D reinforces that this is not a clean across-the-board setup. MP looks more like a trend-driven stock that still needs proof of durable margins, smooth qualification and reliable downstream scale than a high-conviction buy at any price.

Key Takeaways MP trades at 15.20X forward sales, above the industry's 1.49X, while shares fell 14.7% in six months.First-quarter revenues rose 49% to $90.6M, but higher costs kept MP in its 11th operating-loss quarter.MP is expanding Independence and building 10X to lift annual NdFeB magnet capacity to about 10,000 tons. MP Materials (MP - Free Report) is trading at a forward 12-month price/sales multiple of 15.20X, well above the industry average of 1.49X. The stock also carries a Value Score of F, suggesting it is expensive at current levels.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Among rare earth peers, USA Rare Earth, Inc. (USAR - Free Report) trades at a steeper 39.51X, while Lynas Rare Earths Limited (LYSDY - Free Report) appears relatively more reasonably valued at 10.22X.

MP Materials Stock Trails Industry PerformanceMP Materials shares have declined 14.7% over the past six months, significantly lagging the industry’s 8.5% growth. The Zacks Basic Materials sector gained 3.8% while the S&P 500 rose 8%. Over this period, Lynas Rare Earths and USA Rare Earth have gained 19.6% and 11.4%, respectively.

MP's 6-Month Performance Against Industry, Sector, S&P 500 & Peers
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MP Materials continues to trade at a substantial premium even as its shares have lagged the industry. Examining its latest financial results, operational execution, growth catalysts and key challenges can help assess whether that premium remains justified.

MP Delivered Revenue Growth in Q1, Costs Remain ElevatedMP Materials generated first-quarter 2026 total revenues of $90.6 million, up 49% year over year. The company also recognized $42.3 million in income related to a price protection agreement (PPA) with the Department of War (DoW).

Revenues from the Materials segment increased 30% year over year to $72.2 million, on stronger NdPr pricing and sales. The Magnetics segment contributed $21 million in revenues, reflecting increased production of magnetic precursor products. In the year-ago quarter, the segment generated $5.2 million in revenues from its first metal deliveries.

Cost of sales climbed 52% due to higher sales volumes while selling, general and administrative expenses rose 39.2% due to increased personnel costs. Start-up costs surged 503%, reflecting the ramp-up of start-up activities related to magnet production and chlor-alkali facilities. Advanced projects and development expenses spiked 302% due to higher costs incurred for legal, consulting and advisory services to support growth initiatives.

Due to the surge in costs, MP Materials reported an operating loss of $24 million in the quarter compared with the year-ago operating loss of $34.8 million. This was the 11th consecutive quarter of operating loss for the company, reflecting ongoing margin pressure as it continues transitioning toward higher-value separated rare earth products. The company posted adjusted earnings of three cents per share against the year-ago quarter’s loss of 12 cents. 

Producing separated rare earth products and magnetic materials involves significantly higher costs than concentrate production, due to additional processing requirements, chemical inputs, labor and maintenance. Cost of sales is, thus, expected to trend higher, reflecting increased sales of NdPr oxide and metal, along with added costs associated with magnetic precursor products. Start-up costs are also likely to increase further in the coming quarters.

MP Materials Scales Production Across OperationsMP Materials reported record production of 917 metric tons of NdPr during the first quarter, up 63% year over year, driven by continued expansion of separated rare earth production. The company also achieved a record 12,983 metric tons of rare earth oxide (REO) concentrate production, representing a 6% increase from the prior-year period, supported by improved recoveries and operational efficiencies. At the same time, production of magnetic precursor products continues to ramp up at the Independence facility.

MP’s Earnings Estimates Trend Lower Reflecting CautionThe Zacks Consensus Estimate for MP Materials’ 2026 earnings stands at 16 cents per share, reflecting a turnaround from the projected loss of 24 cents in 2025. The 2027 estimate is currently pegged at $1.06 per share, implying growth of 562.5%.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Earnings estimates for both 2026 and 2027 have been revised downward over the past 90 days.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

MP Materials Advances Capacity ExpansionThe company is expanding operations at its Independence facility and has begun construction of the 10X magnetics facility. Commissioning activities for scaled heavy rare earth separation are also expected to begin soon at Mountain Pass. 10X will significantly expand MP’s fully integrated U.S. rare-earth magnetics manufacturing platform, which already encompasses mining and refining, metallization and alloying, sintering, finished magnet production and closed loop recycling. Once operational, the new campus is expected to contribute to the company’s total production capacity of approximately 10,000 metric tons of NdFeB rare-earth magnets per year, advancing the nation’s ability to produce these strategic components domestically.

Our Final Take on MP StockMP Materials remains well-positioned to benefit from the growing demand for domestically produced rare earth materials and magnets, supported by its integrated business model, expanding production capabilities and significant long-term capacity investments. These strengths make the company an attractive long-term holding for existing shareholders.

However, prospective investors may prefer to wait for a more attractive entry point given the stock’s premium valuation, rising operating and start-up costs, and recent downward revisions to earnings estimates. MP currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

Key Takeaways MP Materials' first-quarter 2026 revenues rose 49% as NdPr production and sales reached records.MP reported no rare earth oxides sales after discontinuing such sales in July 2025.The Magnetics segment generated $21.1 million in revenues, driven by precursor sales to GM. MP Materials (MP - Free Report) began 2026 on a solid note, reporting first-quarter 2026 revenues of $90.6 million, up 49% from $60.8 million in the prior-year quarter. The company also benefited from a $42.3 million contribution under its price protection agreement (PPA) with the U.S. Department of War (DoW), taking consolidated revenues to $132.9 million for the quarter.

The robust performance was driven by the continued expansion of higher-value neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) products. MP achieved record NdPr production of 917 metric tons, up 63% year over year, while NdPr sales surged 117% to another record 1,006 metric tons. The company did not generate rare earth oxides (REO) sales during the quarter, reflecting its decision to cease sales into the Chinese market in July 2025. 

The company now processes the concentrate into separate rare earth products or stockpiles it for future use. Despite the absence of concentrate sales, the Materials segment generated revenues of $72.2 million in the first quarter, up 30% year over year, driven by stronger NdPr sales volumes and pricing,

The company’s Magnetics segment has also emerged as an important revenue contributor. It generated $21.1 million of revenues in the first quarter, supported by the sale of magnetic precursor products under the long-term supply agreement with General Motors (GM - Free Report) . The segment had made its first delivery to General Motors in the first quarter of 2025, which led to $5.2 million in revenues. 

As of March 31, 2026, the company had sold $87.9 million of magnetic precursor products to General Motors and expects to complete the remaining $62.1 million commitment within the next year. Following the fulfillment of this agreement, the company anticipates transitioning to sales of finished magnets to General Motors, which are expected to begin in 2026.

Looking ahead, several initiatives could support future revenue growth. The company recently stated that it advanced key growth initiatives, such as expanding operations at Independence and breaking ground on the 10X magnetics facility, its second domestic rare earth magnet manufacturing facility. Meanwhile, scaled heavy rare earth separation commissioning activities are set to begin soon at Mountain Pass.

Among industry peers, Lynas Rare Earths (LYSDY - Free Report) also reported impressive growth, with third-quarter fiscal 2026 (ended March 31, 2026) revenues jumping 115% year over year to AUD 265 million ($183 million), the highest quarterly figure since the fourth quarter of fiscal 2022. This was driven by an increase in the NdPr price and sales volume and higher sales volume of total REO products. 

Lynas Rare Earth reported NdPr production of 1,996 tons, representing a 32% year-over-year increase. The company also produced eight tons of dysprosium and terbium during the quarter. Total REO production for the quarter reached 3,233 tons, up 69% from the prior-year period. Lynas Rare Earth achieved its first production of samarium oxide in March 2026, ahead of its previously announced April 2026 target. 

MP’s Price Performance, Valuation & EstimatesMP Materials’ shares have gained 57% in a year compared with the industry’s 40.1% growth.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

MP is trading at a forward 12-month price/sales multiple of 16.37X, a significant premium to the industry’s 1.49X.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MP Materials’ 2026 earnings is pegged at 16 cents per share, indicating an improvement from the loss of 24 cents in 2025. The estimate for 2027 is $1.06 per share, indicating a 562.5% year-over-year improvement.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

The estimate for both 2026 and 2027 has, however, moved down in the past 60 days, as shown in the chart below.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.