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3 Sectors to Buy While They're Down and 1 to Walk Away FromMolina Healthcare NYSE: MOH reaffirmed its full-year 2026 adjusted earnings outlook while outlining preliminary 2027 earnings building blocks exceeding $9.50 per share, supported by anticipated rate increases, the maturation of new contracts and the planned exit from its Medicare Advantage prescription drug business.

Speaking on the company’s third-quarter earnings call, President and CEO Joe Zubretsky said Molina generated $10.5 billion in premium revenue and adjusted earnings per share of $0.89 during the quarter. The company reported a consolidated medical care ratio, or MCR, of 92.9%, an adjusted general and administrative expense ratio of 6.3%, and an adjusted pretax margin of 0.6%.

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Why Centene Stock Dropped 40% — And Whether It's a Buy NowZubretsky said third-quarter results reflected “solid operating performance” amid a challenging medical cost environment. Molina maintained its full-year premium revenue forecast of about $42 billion and its adjusted EPS guidance of at least $5.25.

Medicaid rates and medical-cost trends Molina’s Medicaid MCR was 93% in the third quarter, in line with management’s expectations as rate updates largely offset higher medical costs. The company raised its outlook for full-year Medicaid rate increases to 4.5%, from a prior range of 4% to 4.5%, while also increasing its medical-cost trend assumption to 5.5%, from 5% to 5.5%.

3 Health Insurance Stocks Holding Green in Market TurmoilManagement cited elevated utilization in several care categories and a modest shift in member acuity. Long-term services and supports and behavioral health trends remained elevated but stable, while outpatient costs and high-cost drugs rose somewhat, CFO Mark Keim said.

The company expects its legacy Medicaid business to produce a 1.6% pretax margin for 2026. Zubretsky said the business is at what management views as the low point of a multiyear margin cycle, as state rate-setting increasingly incorporates periods of elevated cost trends into the baseline used for pricing.

For 2027, Molina’s preliminary outlook calls for Medicaid rates to rise about 6%, while medical-cost trend is projected at 5.5% to 6%. The company said it knows draft rates for 80% of its Jan. 1 renewal cohort, representing 55% of full-year premium, and those rates average about 7%.

Management said the early outlook assumes legacy Medicaid MCRs will remain at least flat year over year. Any improvement would represent upside to its preliminary earnings view. Keim said every 100 basis points of improvement in the Medicaid MCR would be worth approximately $5 per share.

Work requirements and membership outlook Molina expects federal work requirements and more frequent eligibility reverifications to reduce membership gradually. The company’s preliminary assumptions include a 6% membership decline in 2027, after anticipating a 6% decline in 2026 before the addition of members from the Florida CMS contract.

Zubretsky said early experience in Nebraska, an early adopter of work requirements, has been more moderate than some observers expected. He said states covering about 80% of Molina’s markets appear to be adopting interpretations that favor continued enrollment, including medical-frailty exemptions, ex parte reviews and self-attestation policies.

Keim said Nebraska reported that 90% of renewing members had been reenrolled, including 20% through frailty exemptions. Molina nevertheless continues to include an expected acuity shift in its cost-trend assumptions. Management estimated that 4.5% of its 2027 medical-cost trend projection reflects core trend and roughly 1% to 1.5% reflects acuity changes associated with membership attrition.

Florida contract and segment performance Molina began its Florida CMS contract during the third quarter, taking on 115,000 members with an annualized revenue run rate of about $6 billion. Zubretsky characterized the first 22 days of implementation as nearly flawless operationally and clinically, though he said the company remains cautious because it is a new, high-acuity program.

The contract is expected to create a $1.50-per-share earnings drag in 2026, including approximately $1 in the fourth quarter. Keim said Molina expects the Florida business to have a roughly 99% MCR and a 5% pretax loss in the fourth quarter, before improving to breakeven or better in 2027. A portion of the initial loss reflects one-time reserve requirements associated with new revenue, he said.

In Medicare, Molina reported a third-quarter MCR of 93%. Its dual-eligible products continued to perform well and are expected to contribute $1.25 per share in 2026, while its Medicare Advantage prescription drug, or MAPD, business is projected to lose $1 per share before Molina exits that product line in 2027.

Marketplace MCR was 92.5% during the quarter. Molina expects the segment to lose about $0.75 per share in 2026 but said the loss is not expected to recur after the company reduces its Marketplace footprint to seven states and adjusts pricing for 2027.

2027 outlook and contract pipeline Molina now expects at least $45 billion in premium revenue for 2027, down from an earlier outlook of $46.5 billion. The reduction reflects delayed implementation of Medicaid contracts in Georgia and Texas, which together account for $1.3 billion of premium revenue. The awards are being evaluated in state court, though management said it remains confident the awards will be upheld and commence later in 2027 or in 2028.

The company’s preliminary earnings building blocks for 2027 start with at least $5.25 per share of 2026 adjusted EPS and add about $4 per share from known embedded earnings. Those contributions include eliminating losses on the Florida CMS and MAPD businesses, as well as operating leverage from higher revenue. Molina also expects Marketplace to reach at least breakeven, adding about $0.75 per share.

Molina highlighted additional bidding activity in Texas, Missouri, Arizona and Indiana. Those opportunities represent about $26 billion of the $90 billion RFP opportunity discussed at its Investor Day, Zubretsky said.

About Molina Healthcare (NYSE:MOH)Molina Healthcare, Inc is a managed-care company that provides health insurance and related services primarily through government-sponsored programs. Its offerings include Medicaid, Medicare, Medicare-Medicaid dual-eligible plans and health plans sold through government marketplaces under the Affordable Care Act.

The company's services generally include medical care coordination, behavioral health support, pharmacy benefits and, depending on the plan and state, dental and vision benefits.

This instant news alert was generated by narrative science technology and financial data from MarketBeat in order to provide readers with the fastest reporting and unbiased coverage. Please send any questions or comments about this story to [email protected].

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For the quarter ended September 2026, Molina (MOH - Free Report) reported revenue of $11.08 billion, down 3.4% over the same period last year. EPS came in at $0.89, compared to $1.84 in the year-ago quarter.

The reported revenue represents a surprise of +1.42% over the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $10.93 billion. With the consensus EPS estimate being $0.72, the EPS surprise was +23.61%.

While investors scrutinize revenue and earnings changes year-over-year and how they compare with Wall Street expectations to determine their next move, some key metrics always offer a more accurate picture of a company's financial health.

As these metrics influence top- and bottom-line performance, comparing them to the year-ago numbers and what analysts estimated helps investors project a stock's price performance more accurately.

Here is how Molina performed in the just reported quarter in terms of the metrics most widely monitored and projected by Wall Street analysts:

MCR - Medicaid: 93% versus the three-analyst average estimate of 93%.MCR - Medicare: 93% compared to the 92.8% average estimate based on three analysts.MCR - Marketplace: 92.5% compared to the 93.3% average estimate based on three analysts.Ending Membership by Program - Total: 4.86 million versus 4.91 million estimated by three analysts on average.Ending Membership by Program - Medicaid: 4.37 million versus 4.42 million estimated by three analysts on average.Revenue- Premium revenue- Marketplace: $642 million versus $570 million estimated by three analysts on average. Compared to the year-ago quarter, this number represents a -46.4% change.Revenue- Premium tax revenue: $500 million versus the three-analyst average estimate of $509 million. The reported number represents a year-over-year change of -1.2%.Revenue- Premium revenue- Medicaid: $8.2 billion versus the three-analyst average estimate of $8.16 billion. The reported number represents a year-over-year change of +2.3%.Revenue- Premium revenue- Medicare: $1.62 billion versus $1.57 billion estimated by three analysts on average. Compared to the year-ago quarter, this number represents a +0.4% change.Revenue- Premium revenue: $10.46 billion versus the three-analyst average estimate of $10.31 billion. The reported number represents a year-over-year change of -3.5%.Revenue- Other revenue: $23 million versus the two-analyst average estimate of $23.26 million. The reported number represents a year-over-year change of +4.6%.Revenue- Investment income: $102 million compared to the $100.43 million average estimate based on two analysts. The reported number represents a change of -5.6% year over year.View all Key Company Metrics for Molina here>>>

Shares of Molina have returned +14.9% over the past month versus the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +1% change. The stock currently has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell), indicating that it could underperform the broader market in the near term.

AUSTIN, Texas, Oct. 21, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- AINewsWire Editorial Coverage: In today’s healthcare landscape, treating sickness after the fact is giving way to stopping it before it starts. U.S. health spending hit $5.3 trillion in 2024, and Medicare Advantage enrolls 35.2 million people today, equal to 55% of those eligible. For 2026, KFF estimates Medicare Advantage payments will hit $574 billion, giving health plans strong financial incentive to keep their members well. A new category of company is emerging to meet that shift. ECGI Holdings Inc. (OTC: ECGI) (profile) has finalized its purchase of Avanta Group, an emerging platform combining a Medicare Advantage health plan with management services and AI-driven health technology. Through the acquisition, ECGI gains direct entry into coordinated, proactive care right as the broader industry looks for better ways to deliver it. ECGI now operates in the same space as established names in U.S. managed healthcare, including sector leaders Centene Corporation (NYSE: CNC), Molina Healthcare Inc. (NYSE: MOH), Astrana Health Inc. (NASDAQ: ASTH) and Alignment Healthcare Inc. (NASDAQ: ALHC).

Chronic disease is at the heart of what makes American healthcare so costly, with three-quarters of American adults carrying at least one chronic condition and more than half managing two or more.What began as scattered pilot projects for artificial intelligence has turned into standard clinical practice, with AMA reporting that 81% of physicians now use AI in their work.ECGI’s proposed healthcare strategy targets this growing sector, with Avanta Health Plan sitting at its core.Across much of healthcare, the different pieces that shape a patient’s journey tend to run independently, but ECGI’s Avanta platform is designed to connect the core functions that increasingly shape healthcare performance.Organizations that can connect the dots for patients stand to define healthcare’s future, and ECGI Holdings is positioning itself to be one of them.
Keeping Patients Connected Between Visits

Chronic disease is at the heart of what makes American healthcare so costly. The CDC identifies conditions such as heart disease, cancer and diabetes as leading drivers of national health spending. Three-quarters of American adults carry at least one chronic condition, and more than half manage two or more.

Older adults bear the heaviest share of this burden. According to the CDC, more than 90% of people 65 and older live with at least one chronic condition. Many of these patients juggle several different clinicians and depend on consistent follow-up between appointments. Minor issues can escalate into hospitalizations once that follow-up breaks down.

Even when preventive care costs patients nothing, it still goes underused. After the first year of enrollment, Medicare’s Annual Wellness Visit carries no copay or deductible. Still, an actuarial analysis found that from 2018 to 2023, 45% of fee-for-service beneficiaries had just one wellness visit, or none at all. In years when beneficiaries did have a visit, total cost of care ran about $885 lower per person.

Closing gaps like these calls for providers, health plans and care teams to operate from a shared approach. ECGI Holdings is positioning itself to deliver exactly that kind of connected model. Through its acquisition of Avanta Group, the company now brings together a developing health plan, a management-services organization and a health-technology business under one roof.

“Healthcare is one of the largest and most consequential sectors of the U.S. economy,” said ECGI Holdings president Jamie Steigerwald. “Our objective is not simply to participate in that market, but to build an integrated platform capable of using automation and artificial intelligence to improve navigation, identify opportunities for earlier intervention, streamline administrative workflows and support more informed decision-making.”

From Scattered Records to Smarter Outreach

What began as scattered pilot projects for artificial intelligence has turned into standard clinical practice. According to the American Medical Association’s (“AMA”) 2026 physician survey, 81% of physicians now report using AI in their work, more than double the 38% who said the same in 2023.

For care teams, AI earns its keep mainly by pulling together information that would otherwise sit scattered across separate systems. Claims data, visit notes, lab results and pharmacy records typically live apart from one another. AI-enabled tools can consolidate these sources, surface overdue screenings and flag follow-ups that were missed. They can also prioritize which patients most urgently need outreach, directing limited staff time to where it counts most.

Clinical judgment still has to lead, with the technology serving in a supporting role rather than replacing it. Among AMA survey respondents, 88% called rigorous safety and efficacy validation essential before AI adoption can expand further, and 85% said they want a direct voice in decisions involving AI. Seventy percent view AI as a way to offload tasks that fuel burnout, freeing clinicians to spend more time with patients.

ECGI intends to weave these capabilities into its healthcare platform, with Avanta Tech handling the underlying data, automation and AI-enabled functions. Applications the company has identified include spotting care gaps, automating member services, analyzing providers and networks, supporting claims and workflows, detecting fraud and guiding personalized health navigation.

A Massive Market, Still Growing Fast

Few sectors operate at the scale of U.S. healthcare. National health spending climbed 7.2% to reach $5.3 trillion in 2024, or $15,474 per person, amounting to 18% of gross domestic product. Medicare made up $1.118 trillion of that total, or 21%.

Growth isn’t expected to slow either, with forecasts set to continue outpacing the broader economy. CMS projects that health spending will rise 5.4% annually on average between 2025 and 2034, compared with 4.1% for GDP, pushing healthcare’s share of GDP to a projected 20.6% by 2034. Among major payers, Medicare is expected to grow the fastest, at 7.7% per year.

The money moving through these plans is considerable. KFF projects $574 billion in Medicare Advantage payments for 2026 alone, with quality bonuses expected to reach at least $13.4 billion, more than quadruple the $3 billion paid out in 2015. Those bonus figures illustrate just how closely plan performance is linked to revenue.

This is precisely the segment ECGI’s proposed healthcare strategy targets. Avanta Health Plan sits at its core, a developing Medicare Advantage, commercial and individual health plan. Per ECGI’s announcement, Avanta will first need to secure applicable approvals and licenses, including from the California Department of Managed Health Care and the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, before operating or enrolling members. Once those approvals come through, growth would hinge on enrollment, expanding services and tightly managing medical and administrative costs.

When Administration Works for the Patient

Across much of healthcare, the different pieces that shape a patient’s journey tend to run independently. Health plans oversee benefits and claims. Clinics manage scheduling and treatment. Billing, referrals and authorizations fall to administrative teams, frequently on systems of their own. Every point where these pieces connect is also a point where a patient can slip through unnoticed.

Those breakdowns come with real costs for health plans. Quality bonus eligibility under Medicare Advantage hinges on star ratings, and that bar keeps rising. Studies show the number of contracts earning four stars or better dropped to 209 in 2026, down from 261 the year before. Enrollment in bonus-eligible plans fell to 68% of members, the lowest share since 2018.

The goal of an integrated model is to line up administrative work with what patients genuinely require. A management-services organization (“MSO”) can take on the operational load for clinics, leaving clinicians free to focus on care. Administrative tasks start supporting continuity of care instead of hindering it once that MSO shares its data and goals with a health plan. Technology then serves as the link between them, moving information from plan to clinic and back again.

ECGI is proposing to build exactly this kind of structure through Avanta. Within Avanta’s medical network, Avanta MSO would handle administration and operations. ECGI states that this arm will put Avanta Tech and Avanta Health Plan innovations into practice at the clinical level. Rounding out the platform are Avanta Mart, a consumer-health and wellness channel built for member engagement, and Avanta Properties City Parkway, a real-estate entity supporting healthcare infrastructure.

“The Avanta platform is designed to connect the core functions that increasingly shape healthcare performance: insurance, administration, technology, member engagement and the infrastructure required to support delivery,” said Steigerwald. “We believe that combination can give ECGI a scalable foundation for growth while keeping the member experience and responsible use of data at the center of the strategy.”

ECGI Finalizes Avanta Deal, Eyes a Larger Healthcare Opportunity

This week marked the close of ECGI’s full acquisition of Avanta Group and its subsidiaries. In exchange for all outstanding Avanta shares, ECGI issued 17,160,000 shares of Series A Voting Convertible Preferred Stock. At closing, 10,296,000 of those shares (60%) vested immediately, while the remaining 6,864,000 (40%) carry transfer restrictions and vest based on performance.

Avanta arrives with an operating team experienced in Medicare Advantage. Its founders have backgrounds in healthcare operations, having previously built other Medicare Advantage plans and medical clinics, and the team brings an understanding of health-benefit needs across diverse ethnic communities.

Building out the platform still requires several more steps. Avanta has filed a letter of intent with the California Department of Managed Health Care but hasn’t yet submitted its formal license application. Later in October 2026, it plans to file a notice of intent with the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, though a formal CMS application is still pending. ECGI has also been shoring up its balance sheet ahead of this next stage: earlier in the month, it cleared a $2.556 million convertible obligation, advancing its goal of shedding derivative liabilities and cutting debt that could otherwise dilute shareholders.

Organizations that can connect the dots for patients stand to define healthcare’s future, and ECGI Holdings is positioning itself to be one of them. Given $5.3 trillion in annual U.S. health spending and 35.2 million Medicare Advantage enrollees, the payoff for coordinated, proactive care is substantial. What sets ECGI’s proposed Avanta platform apart is its integration, bringing together a health plan, management services, AI-enabled technology, consumer health and real estate in a single structure.

Healthcare Leaders Advance Access, Innovation

The healthcare industry continues to evolve as leading organizations pursue new strategies to expand access, improve quality and offer greater flexibility in coverage and care. From innovative insurance options and expanded provider networks to government-sponsored health programs and quality-focused initiatives, companies are adapting to changing patient needs and market demands.

Centene Corporation (NYSE: CNC) announced the expansion of its CHOICE Arrangements benefit program (formerly ICHRA) to employees in Ohio and Oklahoma for plan year 2027. Building on the successful implementation of the program for Indiana-based employees in 2026, the expansion reflects Centene's ongoing commitment to providing employees with greater flexibility and choice in their health coverage.

Molina Healthcare Inc. (NYSE: MOH) announced that the Illinois Department of Healthcare and Family Services (HFS) intends to award a HealthChoice Illinois Medicaid Managed Care program contract to Molina’s Illinois health plan subsidiary, Molina Healthcare of Illinois. The go-live date for the new contract is expected to be January 1, 2027. The contract is expected to have a duration of four-and-a-half years, with the option to extend the contract up to an additional five-and-a-half years at the discretion of the state. 

Astrana Health Inc. (NASDAQ: ASTH) announced a provider arrangement with Alignment Health Plan that will expand in-network access to primary and specialty care for Medicare Advantage beneficiaries across Southern and Northern California. Beginning Jan. 1, 2027, the collaboration will serve members in Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, San Francisco, San Mateo and Santa Clara counties. The collaboration will expand access to many physicians who offer multilingual and culturally responsive care.

Alignment Healthcare Inc. (NASDAQ: ALHC) reported that its Alignment Health Plan has been named a 2027 Best Insurance Company for Medicare Advantage by U.S. News & World Report in all five states where it operates. The plan is offered in Arizona, California, Nevada, North Carolina and Texas. This marks the seventh year the company has received this recognition. For the award, U.S. News considered CMS data and quality measure results for every evaluated insurance company’s Medicare Advantage health coverage for the 2027 calendar year. As the healthcare landscape becomes increasingly complex, flexibility, accessibility and quality remain central to the industry's long-term direction.

Organizations that successfully balance these priorities while responding to regulatory changes, shifting demographics and evolving consumer expectations may be better positioned for sustainable growth. Continued investments in coverage options, care delivery networks and patient-centered services are helping shape a healthcare system designed to meet the needs of an increasingly diverse population.

For more information, visit ECGI Holdings.

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Key Takeaways Molina Healthcare's Q3 earnings are projected to plunge 60.9%, with revenues expected to decline 4.8%.MOH's premium revenues are expected to fall 4.9%, while its medical care ratio is projected to rise to 93%.Molina Healthcare's membership is forecast to drop 12.7%, led by a 63% plunge in Marketplace enrollment. Molina Healthcare, Inc. (MOH - Free Report) is set to report its third-quarter 2026 results on Oct. 21, 2026, after the closing bell. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter’s earnings is currently pegged at 72 cents per shareon revenues of $10.93 billion.

The third-quarter earnings estimate witnessed two downward revisions and no upward revisions over the past 60 days. The bottom-line projection indicates a year-over-year decline of 60.9%. Also, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues implies a year-over-year decrease of 4.8%.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

For 2026, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Molina Healthcare’s revenues is pegged at $44.47 billion, implying a decline of 2.1% year over year. The consensus mark for 2026 EPS is pegged at $5.28, indicating a 52.1% year-over-year decrease.

Molina Healthcare’searnings beat the consensus estimate in two of the trailing four quarters and missed twice, with the average surprise being negative 183.3%. This is depicted in the figure below.

Q3 Earnings Whispers for MOHOur proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for the company this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That is not the case here.

MOH currently has an Earnings ESP of -3.30% and a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

What’s Shaping MOH’s Q3 Results?The Zacks Consensus Estimate projects premium revenues to decline 4.9% year over year from $10.84 billion, as lower revenues from Medicare and Marketplace are expected to outweigh gains from Medicaid. Investment income is also expected to fall 7% to $100.4 million. In contrast, premium tax revenues are forecast to rise 0.6% to $509 million.

Profitability could face additional pressure, with the consensus estimate for the consolidated medical care ratio (MCR) at 93%, up from 92.6% in the year-ago quarter. A higher MCR means the company is expected to spend more on medical care relative to its premium revenue.

Membership trends also point to a weaker quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate calls for total membership to decline 12.7% year over year. Medicaid membership is expected to fall nearly 5%, while Medicare and Marketplace membership could drop 14.6% and 63%, respectively.

With premium revenues, investment income and membership all expected to decline, alongside a higher MCR, the company faces several headwinds heading into the third-quarter report. These pressures could weigh on earnings and make an earnings beat harder to achieve.

Stocks That Warrant a LookWhile an earnings beat looks uncertain for Molina Healthcare, here are some companies from the broader Medical space that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this time around:

Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc. (AVAH - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +3.28% and a Zacks Rank #2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Aveanna Healthcare’s bottom line for the to-be-reported quarter of 20 cents indicates 33.3% year-over-year growth. It has witnessed one upward revision against no downward movement over the past 60 days. The consensus mark for revenues predicts a 9.9% increase from a year ago.

CVS Health Corporation (CVS - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.79% and a Zacks Rank of 3.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CVS Health’s bottom line for the to-be-reported quarter indicates a 1.3% increase from a year ago. The company’s earnings beat estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, with an average surprise of 20.5%. The consensus estimate for CVS’ revenues is pegged at $105.04 billion, signaling a 2.1% increase.

Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc. (ACHC - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +4.84% and a Zacks Rank of 3.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Acadia Healthcare’s bottom line for the to-be-reported quarter is pegged at 46 cents per share, which remained stable over the past week. Its earnings beat estimates in each of the past four quarters, with an average surprise of 47%. ACHC’s revenues for the to-be-reported quarter are pegged at $869.26 million, a 2.1% increase from the year-ago period.

The market expects Molina (MOH - Free Report) to deliver a year-over-year decline in earnings on lower revenues when it reports results for the quarter ended September 2026. This widely-known consensus outlook is important in assessing the company's earnings picture, but a powerful factor that might influence its near-term stock price is how the actual results compare to these estimates.

The earnings report, which is expected to be released on October 21, might help the stock move higher if these key numbers are better than expectations. On the other hand, if they miss, the stock may move lower.

While the sustainability of the immediate price change and future earnings expectations will mostly depend on management's discussion of business conditions on the earnings call, it's worth handicapping the probability of a positive EPS surprise.

Zacks Consensus EstimateThis provider of Medicaid-related services is expected to post quarterly earnings of $0.72 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of -60.9%.

Revenues are expected to be $10.93 billion, down 4.8% from the year-ago quarter.

Estimate Revisions TrendThe consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised 0.36% lower over the last 30 days to the current level. This is essentially a reflection of how the covering analysts have collectively reassessed their initial estimates over this period.

Investors should keep in mind that the direction of estimate revisions by each of the covering analysts may not always get reflected in the aggregate change.

Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Earnings WhisperEstimate revisions ahead of a company's earnings release offer clues to the business conditions for the period whose results are coming out. Our proprietary surprise prediction model -- the Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) -- has this insight at its core.

The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter; the Most Accurate Estimate is a more recent version of the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate. The idea here is that analysts revising their estimates right before an earnings release have the latest information, which could potentially be more accurate than what they and others contributing to the consensus had predicted earlier.

Thus, a positive or negative Earnings ESP reading theoretically indicates the likely deviation of the actual earnings from the consensus estimate. However, the model's predictive power is significant for positive ESP readings only.

A positive Earnings ESP is a strong predictor of an earnings beat, particularly when combined with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold). Our research shows that stocks with this combination produce a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time, and a solid Zacks Rank actually increases the predictive power of Earnings ESP.

Please note that a negative Earnings ESP reading is not indicative of an earnings miss. Our research shows that it is difficult to predict an earnings beat with any degree of confidence for stocks with negative Earnings ESP readings and/or Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) or 5 (Strong Sell).

How Have the Numbers Shaped Up for Molina?For Molina, the Most Accurate Estimate is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, suggesting that analysts have recently become bearish on the company's earnings prospects. This has resulted in an Earnings ESP of -3.30%.

On the other hand, the stock currently carries a Zacks Rank of #4.

So, this combination makes it difficult to conclusively predict that Molina will beat the consensus EPS estimate.

Does Earnings Surprise History Hold Any Clue?While calculating estimates for a company's future earnings, analysts often consider to what extent it has been able to match past consensus estimates. So, it's worth taking a look at the surprise history for gauging its influence on the upcoming number.

For the last reported quarter, it was expected that Molina would post earnings of $1.37 per share when it actually produced earnings of $1.51, delivering a surprise of +10.22%.

Over the last four quarters, the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates two times.

Bottom LineAn earnings beat or miss may not be the sole basis for a stock moving higher or lower. Many stocks end up losing ground despite an earnings beat due to other factors that disappoint investors. Similarly, unforeseen catalysts help a number of stocks gain despite an earnings miss.

That said, betting on stocks that are expected to beat earnings expectations does increase the odds of success. This is why it's worth checking a company's Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank ahead of its quarterly release. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.

Molina doesn't appear a compelling earnings-beat candidate. However, investors should pay attention to other factors too for betting on this stock or staying away from it ahead of its earnings release.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

OMAHA, Neb.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Molina Healthcare of Nebraska donates $30,000 to support lead testing in over 20 rural counties.

Here at Zacks, our focus is on the proven Zacks Rank system, which emphasizes earnings estimates and estimate revisions to find great stocks. Nevertheless, we are always paying attention to the latest value, growth, and momentum trends to underscore strong picks.

Of these, perhaps no stock market trend is more popular than value investing, which is a strategy that has proven to be successful in all sorts of market environments. Value investors use tried-and-true metrics and fundamental analysis to find companies that they believe are undervalued at their current share price levels.

Zacks has developed the innovative Style Scores system to highlight stocks with specific traits. For example, value investors will be interested in stocks with great grades in the "Value" category. When paired with a high Zacks Rank, "A" grades in the Value category are among the strongest value stocks on the market today.

One company value investors might notice is Molina Healthcare (MOH - Free Report) . MOH is currently holding a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) and a Value grade of A. The stock is trading with P/E ratio of 9.08 right now. For comparison, its industry sports an average P/E of 15.14. Over the past 52 weeks, MOH's Forward P/E has been as high as 13.98 and as low as 6.48, with a median of 11.46.

We should also highlight that MOH has a P/B ratio of 2.06. The P/B ratio pits a stock's market value against its book value, which is defined as total assets minus total liabilities. This stock's P/B looks solid versus its industry's average P/B of 2.61. Over the past 12 months, MOH's P/B has been as high as 4.44 and as low as 1.79, with a median of 3.71.

Value investors also love the P/S ratio, which is calculated by simply dividing a stock's price with the company's sales. This is a preferred metric because revenue can't really be manipulated, so sales are often a truer performance indicator. MOH has a P/S ratio of 0.22. This compares to its industry's average P/S of 0.29.

Finally, we should also recognize that MOH has a P/CF ratio of 7.07. This metric focuses on a firm's operating cash flow and is often used to find stocks that are undervalued based on the strength of their cash outlook. This stock's P/CF looks attractive against its industry's average P/CF of 17.91. Over the past year, MOH's P/CF has been as high as 16.68 and as low as 6.15, with a median of 12.60.

Value investors will likely look at more than just these metrics, but the above data helps show that Molina Healthcare is likely undervalued currently. And when considering the strength of its earnings outlook, MOH sticks out as one of the market's strongest value stocks.

CEDAR RAPIDS, Iowa--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Molina Healthcare of Iowa (“Molina”) in collaboration with The MolinaCares Accord (“MolinaCares”) announced a $50,000 grant to the Coalition for Family and Children’s Services in Iowa to close gaps in behavioral healthcare for providers throughout Iowa. The pilot program will create a cohort of practitioners equipped with trauma-informed tools to address the immediate needs of youth experiencing complex behavioral health situations.

In January, the Coalition conducted a provider needs assessment to identify common statewide gaps affecting child welfare and behavioral health providers. Among the findings was the need for evidence-based training in Trust-Based Relational Intervention® (“TBRI”). The model is designed to meet the complex needs of children and youth who have experienced early adversity, toxic stress, abuse, neglect, or relational trauma. The approach ensures the child’s body and brain are regulated through the meeting of their physical and biological needs; it creates a safe environment where children build trust with their caregivers; and it provides a calm and clear structure rather than harsh punishment.

MolinaCares funding will support implementation of a statewide TBRI Champion Initiative, beginning with the training of a cohort of six TBRI Champions. Champions will model TBRI practices within their organizations, support peer learning, and help reinforce consistent approaches across teams and service systems.

“Iowa’s child- and family-serving professionals regularly support young people whose behaviors are rooted in trauma, disrupted relationships, and unmet needs,” said Kristie Oliver, executive director of the Coalition for Family and Children’s Services in Iowa. “TBRI offers a practical framework for strengthening trust, connection, regulation, and feeling safe. By developing TBRI Champions within member organizations, we can support meaningful practical change that extends beyond one training or one individual. We are incredibly grateful to Molina and MolinaCares for believing in this vision and investing in Iowa’s children, families, and provider workforce.”

“Molina’s collaboration with the Coalition presents an opportunity to bring proven solutions to scale, and we are proud to support the expansion of TBRI throughout the state,” said Jennifer Vermeer, plan president of Molina Healthcare of Iowa. “The MolinaCares grant gives practitioners the knowledge necessary to bring calm and clarity to challenging situations that benefit both the patient and provider.”

About The MolinaCares Accord

Established by Molina Healthcare, Inc. in 2020, The MolinaCares Accord oversees a community investment platform created to improve the health and well-being of disadvantaged populations by funding meaningful, measurable, and innovative programs and solutions that improve health, life, and living in local communities. The MolinaCares Accord funds such measures through The Molina Healthcare Charitable Foundation Inc., a 501(c)(3) established in 2020 by Molina Healthcare, Inc.

About Molina Healthcare of Iowa

Molina Healthcare of Iowa, Inc. provides government-funded, quality health care, serving members through the Medicaid program in Iowa. Through its locally operated health plans, Molina Healthcare, Inc., a Fortune 500 company, provides managed health care services under the Medicaid and Medicare programs, and through state insurance marketplaces.  For more information about Molina Healthcare of Iowa, visit MolinaHealthcare.com.

For Immediate ReleaseChicago, IL – August 25, 2026 – Today, Zacks Equity UnitedHealth Group Inc. (UNH - Free Report) , The Cigna Group (CI - Free Report) , Humana Inc. (HUM - Free Report) , Centene Corp. (CNC - Free Report) and Molina Healthcare, Inc. (MOH - Free Report)

Industry: HMO

Link: https://www.zacks.com/commentary/2978917/5-hmo-stocks-to-watch-amid-steady-premium-flow-increased-digitization

The U.S. health insurance industry, commonly referred to as the Health Maintenance Organization (HMO), continues to benefit from a diversified membership base, an aging population, digital transformation and strategic mergers and acquisitions (M&A). Growth in Medicare Advantage, particularly Special Needs Plans, and steady commercial and exchange enrollment should support premium flows, partly offsetting expected Medicaid membership declines amid regulatory changes. 

Meanwhile, insurers are enhancing Medicare offerings and investing in home-based care, telehealth, digital tools, automation and AI to improve care delivery and operating efficiency. Strategic acquisitions should further broaden capabilities, diversify revenues and strengthen integrated healthcare platforms. Industry leaders such as UnitedHealth Group Inc., The Cigna Group, Humana Inc., Centene Corp. and Molina Healthcare, Inc. are well-positioned to capitalize on these favorable growth dynamics. 

About the IndustryThe Zacks HMO industry consists of entities (either private or public) that take care of subscribers’ basic and supplemental health services. Players in this space primarily assume risks and assign health and medical insurance policy premiums. Industry participants also provide administrative and managed-care services for self-funded insurance. 

Services are generally offered via a network of approved care providers (called in-network), which include primary care physicians, clinical facilities, hospitals and specialists. However, out-of-network exceptions are made during emergencies or when medically necessary. Health insurance plans can be availed through private purchases, social insurance or social welfare programs.

4 Trends Shaping the Fate of the HMO IndustryDiversified Membership Mix Supports Steady Premium Flow: Membership trends across Medicare, Medicaid and other health plans remain broadly supportive for the U.S. health insurance industry, though the mix is shifting. Special Needs Plans is emerging as an increasingly important growth area within Medicare Advantage. 

However, expected Medicaid membership declines resulting from growing regulatory challenges following the enactment of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act may act as a partial offset. But to add some relief, commercial employer-sponsored and individual exchange plans continue to diversify insurers' membership bases and ensure an uninterrupted flow of premiums, the most important revenue component for any health insurer.  

An Aging U.S. Population: Medicare plans are specifically designed to meet the healthcare needs of individuals aged 65 and older. The aging U.S. population is steadily expanding the pool of Medicare-eligible individuals and generating higher premium revenues. As older adults generally require greater access to medical services and ongoing management of chronic conditions, insurers are enhancing Medicare Advantage offerings to provide more comprehensive and coordinated coverage. 

Efforts include strengthening primary and preventive care, expanding care-management programs and offering supplemental benefits covering dental, vision, hearing, wellness and other everyday healthcare needs.  These initiatives can improve care coordination and member experience, thereby paving the way for increased plan enrolment.

Digital Transformation Through Technology Investments: Digital transformation remains underway across the HMO industry as health insurers increasingly invest in technology to improve member engagement, streamline operations and enhance care delivery. Insurers are expanding digital platforms, mobile applications, telehealth capabilities and self-service tools to make healthcare services more accessible and convenient for members. 

At the same time, greater use of automation, advanced analytics and Artificial Intelligence is helping insurers simplify administrative processes and improve claims management. While these investments may initially increase costs for health insurers, they should gradually enhance operating efficiency and the overall member experience, and generate more sustainable revenue growth over the long term.

Strategic M&A Strengthens Growth Opportunities: M&As continue to offer meaningful growth opportunities for the U.S. health insurance industry as insurers pursue strategic deals to broaden capabilities, strengthen geographic presence and diversify beyond traditional insurance operations. Companies are increasingly targeting assets in care delivery, pharmacy services, specialty benefits, healthcare technology and other complementary businesses that can deepen relationships with members and create additional revenue streams. Such transactions can also help insurers build more integrated healthcare platforms, expand access to services and improve operational efficiency through greater scale and technology sharing. 

Zacks Industry Rank Instills OptimismThe group’s Zacks Industry Rank, which is the average of the Zacks Rank of all the member stocks, indicates bright near-term prospects. The Zacks Medical-HMOs industry, which is housed within the broader Zacks Medical sector, currently carries a Zacks Industry Rank #25, which places it in the top 10% of 247 Zacks industries. Our research shows that the top 50% of the Zacks-ranked industries outperform the bottom 50% by a factor of more than two to one. 

The industry’s positioning in the top 50% of the Zacks-ranked industries is a result of a positive earnings outlook for the constituent companies in aggregate.

Before we present a few stocks that you may want to buy or retain in your portfolio, let’s look at the industry’s recent stock-market performance and valuation picture.

Industry Outperforms S&P 500, SectorThe Zacks Medical-HMO industry has gained 24% in the past year compared with the Zacks S&P 500 composite’s 21.4% growth. The Zacks Medical sector rallied 15.1% in the same time frame. 

Industry's Current ValuationBased on the forward 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, which is commonly used for valuing medical stocks, the industry trades at 15.77X compared with the S&P 500’s 20.37X and the sector’s 21.96X. 

Over the past five years, the industry has traded as high as 19.64X and as low as 11.58X, with the median being at 16.13X.

5 Stocks to Keep a Close Eye OnWe present five stocks from the space, either sporting a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) or #3 (Hold). Considering the current industry scenario, it might be prudent for investors to buy or retain these stocks in their portfolio, as these are well-placed to generate growth in the long haul.

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

UnitedHealth Group: Minnesota-based UnitedHealth Group benefits from the complementary capabilities of UnitedHealthcare and Optum. UnitedHealthcare benefits from strong local-market relationships, a broad product portfolio and advanced technology. Optum’s capabilities in value-based care, population health and analytics further strengthen the company’s position across the healthcare system. Additionally, continued focus on M&As, coupled with expanding telehealth capabilities, strengthens the nationwide footprint of this Zacks Rank #1 company.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for UnitedHealth Group’s 2026 earnings is pegged at $19.81 per share, which implies 21.2% growth from the year-ago figure. UNH’s earnings beat estimates in each of the last four quarters, the average surprise being 12.05%.

Centene: Based in Missouri, Centene serves as one of the nation’s leading Medicaid and Marketplace insurers and stand-alone PDP providers. Its businesses are further supported by numerous contract wins and steady membership expansion. Its locally focused model allows it to tailor products, provider networks and services to community needs. Investments in data-driven care and expertise in dual-eligible populations further support care coordination, affordability and member outcomes. This Zacks Rank #1 company also pursues strategic growth through acquisitions and provider partnerships. Management projects premium and service revenues within $173-$177 billion for 2026.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Centene’s 2026 earnings is pegged at $4.89 per share, which more than doubled from the year-ago figure. CNC’s earnings outpaced estimates in each of the last four quarters, the average being 151.28%.

Cigna:Based in Connecticut, Cigna is aided by Evernorth Health Services and Cigna Healthcare businesses. Evernorth benefits from its comprehensive portfolio of specialty pharmacy services, while Cigna Healthcare leverages its broad customer base across both the U.S. Government and U.S. Commercial markets. Its extensive customer relationships and broad provider network support significant scale, while a modular portfolio enables solutions to be tailored to client needs. This Zacks Rank #3 company further enhances its market position and growth prospects through strategic acquisitions and partnerships with leading healthcare organizations,

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Cigna’s 2026 earnings is pegged at $30.50 per share, indicating 2.2% growth from the prior-year figure. CI’s earnings beat estimates in each of the last four quarters, the average surprise being 2.31%.

Humana:Headquartered in Kentucky, Humana benefits from its longstanding Medicare expertise, national reach and integrated care delivery model. The company offers a diverse set of health plans across 50 states and leverages a geographically diverse membership base to broaden its provider networks. The strong execution of these programs has enabled the company to win new contracts. Its model combines insurance with CenterWell’s primary care, pharmacy and home health capabilities, supported by data analytics and value-based care arrangements. Additionally, strategic acquisitions have strengthened business diversification efforts and expanded the geographic reach of this Zacks Rank #3 company.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Humana’s 2026 earnings is pegged at $9.11 per share. The consensus mark for 2026 earnings has moved 1.1% north over the past 30 days. HUM’s earnings surpassed estimates in each of the last four quarters, the average surprise being 9.59%.

Molina Healthcare: This California-based health insurer benefits from its focused expertise in government-sponsored healthcare, broad presence across 21 states and established scale serving roughly 4.9 million members as of June 30, 2026. The company develops affordable Medicare and Medicaid plans, enriched with extensive benefits, which have consistently led to contract wins and a steady customer base for the Zacks Rank #3 company. Management expects premium revenue to be approximately $42 billion for 2026. The company continues to strengthen its market position through disciplined acquisitions.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Molina Healthcare’s 2026 earnings is pegged at $5.29 per share. The consensus mark for MOH’s 2026 earnings has moved 1.1% north over the past 30 days. MOH’s earnings beat estimates in two of the last four quarters and missed the mark twice.

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A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Molina (MOH - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 1.7% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

But investors have to be wondering, will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Molina due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

MOH Q2 Earnings Beat on Lower Operating Expenses, 2026 EPS View Raised

Molina Healthcare reported second-quarter 2026 adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.51, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 10.2%. The bottom line declined 72.4% from the year-ago period's level.

Revenues amounted to $10.9 billion, which decreased 4.8% year over year. The top line marginally missed the consensus mark by 0.08%.

Second-quarter earnings benefited from lower operating expenses. However, lower premium revenues, declining membership, and weaker investment income weighed on its performance.

MOH’s Q2 Operational UpdatePremium revenues of $10.2 billion decreased 5.7% year over year and missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.8%. The decline primarily reflected lower membership levels, partially offset by pricing actions.

As of June 30, 2026, total membership decreased 14.3% year over year to around 4.9 million and missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.6%. The health insurer witnessed a year-over-year decrease in customers across all segments, especially in Marketplace and Other.

Investment income declined 4.7% year over year to $101 million. The figure beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.8%.

Total operating expenses were $10.7 billion, down 2.9% year over year and slightly below our model estimate of $11 billion, driven by lower medical care costs. The adjusted general and administrative expense ratio increased to 6.5% from 6.1% a year ago. Interest expense increased 12.5% year over year to $54 million.

The consolidated MCR (medical costs as a percentage of premium revenues) was 92.2% in the reported quarter. It rose from 90.4% a year ago but was marginally below the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 92.5%.

Molina Healthcare’s adjusted net income decreased 73.8% year over year to $77 million.

MOH’s Q2 Financial UpdateMolina Healthcare exited the second quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $5 billion, which increased from the 2025-end level of $4.2 billion. Total assets of $16 billion rose from $15.6 billion as of 2025-end.

Long-term debt totaled $3.8 billion, which remained unchanged from the 2025-end level.

Total stockholders’ equity of $4.2 billion inched up from $4.1 billion at the end of 2025.

Net cash provided by operating activities was $788 million compared to net cash used in operating activities of $112 million in the prior-year period.

MOH’s 2026 GuidanceThe company's full-year 2026 premium revenue guidance has remained unchanged at about $42 billion, down roughly 2% from 2025.

Management expects 2026 GAAP earnings of at least $2.15 per diluted share, up from its previous guidance of at least $1.90. It also raised its full-year 2026 adjusted earnings guidance by $0.25 to at least $5.25 per diluted share.

MOH raised its 2026 adjusted net income guidance to $268 million from $256 million. It also increased its GAAP net income guidance to $110 million from the previous estimate of $97 million.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in fresh estimates.

The consensus estimate has shifted -27.16% due to these changes.

VGM ScoresAt this time, Molina has a average Growth Score of C, though it is lagging a bit on the Momentum Score front with a D. However, the stock has a score of B on the value side, putting it in the second quintile for value investors.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of B. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

OutlookEstimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Interestingly, Molina has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.

Concentra (NYSE: CON), the nation's leader in occupational and workforce health services, today announced completion of its acquisition of four Minnesota Occu

While the proven Zacks Rank places an emphasis on earnings estimates and estimate revisions to find strong stocks, we also know that investors tend to develop their own individual strategies. With this in mind, we are always looking at value, growth, and momentum trends to discover great companies.

Of these, perhaps no stock market trend is more popular than value investing, which is a strategy that has proven to be successful in all sorts of market environments. Value investors use a variety of methods, including tried-and-true valuation metrics, to find these stocks.

On top of the Zacks Rank, investors can also look at our innovative Style Scores system to find stocks with specific traits. For example, value investors will want to focus on the "Value" category. Stocks with high Zacks Ranks and "A" grades for Value will be some of the highest-quality value stocks on the market today.

One stock to keep an eye on is Molina Healthcare (MOH - Free Report) . MOH is currently sporting a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), as well as an A grade for Value. The stock holds a P/E ratio of 9.08, while its industry has an average P/E of 17.77. Over the past year, MOH's Forward P/E has been as high as 13.98 and as low as 6.48, with a median of 11.46.

Another notable valuation metric for MOH is its P/B ratio of 2.06. The P/B ratio is used to compare a stock's market value with its book value, which is defined as total assets minus total liabilities. This stock's P/B looks solid versus its industry's average P/B of 2.94. Over the past 12 months, MOH's P/B has been as high as 4.44 and as low as 1.79, with a median of 3.71.

Value investors also frequently use the P/S ratio. This metric is found by dividing a stock's price with the company's revenue. Some people prefer this metric because sales are harder to manipulate on an income statement. This means it could be a truer performance indicator. MOH has a P/S ratio of 0.23. This compares to its industry's average P/S of 0.31.

These figures are just a handful of the metrics value investors tend to look at, but they help show that Molina Healthcare is likely being undervalued right now. Considering this, as well as the strength of its earnings outlook, MOH feels like a great value stock at the moment.

Molina Healthcare, Inc. (MOH) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

Molina (MOH - Free Report) reported $10.87 billion in revenue for the quarter ended June 2026, representing a year-over-year decline of 4.8%. EPS of $1.51 for the same period compares to $5.48 a year ago.

The reported revenue compares to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $10.88 billion, representing a surprise of -0.08%. The company delivered an EPS surprise of +10.22%, with the consensus EPS estimate being $1.37.

While investors scrutinize revenue and earnings changes year-over-year and how they compare with Wall Street expectations to determine their next move, some key metrics always offer a more accurate picture of a company's financial health.

As these metrics influence top- and bottom-line performance, comparing them to the year-ago numbers and what analysts estimated helps investors project a stock's price performance more accurately.

Here is how Molina performed in the just reported quarter in terms of the metrics most widely monitored and projected by Wall Street analysts:

MCR - Medicaid: 92.7% compared to the 92.9% average estimate based on three analysts.MCR - Medicare: 90.7% versus 93.7% estimated by three analysts on average.MCR - Marketplace: 88.9% versus the three-analyst average estimate of 84.9%.Ending Membership by Program - Total: 4.93 million versus 5 million estimated by three analysts on average.Ending Membership by Program - Medicaid: 4.42 million versus the three-analyst average estimate of 4.48 million.Revenue- Premium revenue- Marketplace: $628 million versus the three-analyst average estimate of $643.41 million. The reported number represents a year-over-year change of -47.7%.Revenue- Premium tax revenue: $505 million versus the three-analyst average estimate of $437.04 million. The reported number represents a year-over-year change of +17.2%.Revenue- Premium revenue- Medicaid: $8.05 billion compared to the $8.16 billion average estimate based on three analysts. The reported number represents a change of +0.3% year over year.Revenue- Premium revenue- Medicare: $1.57 billion versus the three-analyst average estimate of $1.63 billion. The reported number represents a year-over-year change of -2.7%.Revenue- Premium revenue: $10.24 billion compared to the $10.43 billion average estimate based on three analysts. The reported number represents a change of -5.7% year over year.Revenue- Other revenue: $24 million versus $22.26 million estimated by two analysts on average. Compared to the year-ago quarter, this number represents a +9.1% change.Revenue- Investment income: $101 million versus $99.18 million estimated by two analysts on average. Compared to the year-ago quarter, this number represents a -4.7% change.View all Key Company Metrics for Molina here>>>

Shares of Molina have returned +15.3% over the past month versus the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +0.3% change. The stock currently has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), indicating that it could perform in line with the broader market in the near term.

LONG BEACH, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Molina Healthcare, Inc. (NYSE: MOH) (the “Company”) today reported second quarter 2026 GAAP income per diluted share of $1.19 and adjusted income per diluted share of $1.51. Financial results are summarized below:

  Three months ended

Six months ended

  June 30,

June 30,

  2026

2025

2026

2025

  (In millions, except per-share results)

Premium Revenue

  $10,244

$10,868

$20,416

$21,496

Total Revenue

  $10,874

$11,427

$21,670

$22,574

  GAAP:

  Net Income

  $60

$255

$74

$553

EPS – Diluted

  $1.19

$4.75

$1.46

$10.19

Medical Care Ratio (MCR)

  92.2%

90.4%

91.6%

89.8%

G&A Ratio

  6.7%

6.2%

6.9%

6.6%

Pre-tax Margin

  0.8%

2.8%

0.6%

3.2%

  Adjusted:

  Net Income

  $77

$294

$197

$627

EPS – Diluted

  $1.51

$5.48

$3.86

$11.56

G&A Ratio

  6.5%

6.1%

6.7%

6.4%

Pre-tax Margin

  1.0%

3.3%

1.3%

3.6%

  See the Reconciliation of Unaudited Non-GAAP Financial Measures at the end of this release.

Quarter Highlights

As of June 30, 2026, the Company served approximately 4.9 million members. Premium revenue was approximately $10.2 billion for the second quarter of 2026. Second quarter 2026 GAAP income per diluted share was $1.19 and adjusted income per diluted share was $1.51. The Company increased its full year 2026 adjusted earnings guidance by $0.25 to at least $5.25 per diluted share. “Our second quarter results and full year guidance reflect solid performance in our Medicaid and Medicare segments,” said Joseph Zubretsky, President and Chief Executive Officer. “The imbalance between Medicaid rates and medical cost trend appears to have stabilized and is well positioned to be corrected with future rate increases. This reinforces our belief that 2026 is the trough year for Medicaid pretax margins. We remain confident in our disciplined approach to medical cost management and believe the premium and EPS building blocks position us well for profitable growth in 2027.”

Premium Revenue

Premium revenue was approximately $10.2 billion for the second quarter of 2026, a decrease of 6% year over year. The lower premium revenue reflects the impact of lower membership, partially offset by rate updates.

Net Income

GAAP net income for the second quarter of 2026 was $60 million, or $1.19 per diluted share, a decrease of 76% year over year. Adjusted net income for the second quarter of 2026 was $77 million, or $1.51 per diluted share, a decrease of 74% year over year. The decrease is attributed mainly to the lower premium revenues and increase in MCR.

Medical Care Ratio (MCR)

The consolidated MCR for the second quarter of 2026 was 92.2%. The Medicaid MCR for the second quarter of 2026 was 92.7% and in line with the Company’s expectation, reflecting rate updates and stable medical cost trend. The Medicare MCR for the second quarter of 2026 was 90.7% and better than the Company’s expectation, reflecting lower medical cost trend and pricing implemented for 2026. The Marketplace MCR for the second quarter of 2026 was 88.9% and higher than the Company’s expectations, reflecting prior year risk adjustment and program integrity initiatives and the impact of current year unfavorable member acuity mix. General and Administrative Expense Ratio

The G&A ratio and the adjusted G&A ratio for the second quarter of 2026 were 6.7% and 6.5%, respectively, reflecting continued operating discipline.

Balance Sheet

Cash and investments at the parent company were approximately $290 million as of June 30, 2026, compared to $223 million as of December 31, 2025.

Days in claims payable at June 30, 2026, was 44.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow for the six months ended June 30, 2026, was $788 million, compared to an outflow of $112 million for the six months ended June 30, 2025. The increase compared to the prior year was driven mainly by the timing of government receivables and payables.

2026 Guidance

Premium revenue guidance for the full year is unchanged at approximately $42 billion.

The Company increased its full year 2026 GAAP earnings to at least $2.15 per diluted share and its full year 2026 adjusted earnings to at least $5.25 per diluted share. The increase to earnings guidance reflects first half performance in Medicaid. Based on developing medical cost trends, a $1.50 increase in earnings per share in Medicare is offset by a $1.50 decrease related to Marketplace. Excluding the downward revision in the Marketplace guidance, the full year guidance would have increased to $6.75 per share.

Full year guidance includes a loss of $1.50 per share due to the implementation of the new Florida Medicaid contract in the fourth quarter of 2026 and a loss of $1.00 per share due to performance of the traditional MAPD product, which the Company previously announced it will exit for 2027.

Conference Call

Management will host a conference call and webcast to discuss Molina Healthcare’s second quarter ended June 30, 2026 results, at 8:00 a.m. Eastern Time on Thursday, July 23, 2026. The number to call for the interactive teleconference is (877) 883-0383 and the confirmation number is 8631129. A telephonic replay of the conference call will be available through Thursday, July 30, 2026, by dialing (855) 669-9658 and entering confirmation number 6469068. A live audio broadcast of this conference call will be available on Molina Healthcare’s investor relations website, investors.molinahealthcare.com. A 30-day online replay will be available approximately an hour following the conclusion of the live broadcast.

About Molina Healthcare

Molina Healthcare, Inc., a FORTUNE 500 company, provides managed healthcare services under the Medicaid and Medicare programs and through the state insurance marketplaces. For more information about Molina Healthcare, please visit molinahealthcare.com.

Safe Harbor Statement under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995

This earnings release and the Company’s accompanying oral remarks contain forward-looking statements. The Company intends such forward-looking statements to be covered under the safe harbor provisions for forward-looking statements contained in Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933 and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. Forward-looking statements provide current expectations of future events based on certain assumptions, and all statements other than statements of historical fact contained in this earnings release and the Company’s accompanying oral remarks may be forward-looking statements. In some cases, you can identify forward-looking statements by words such as “guidance,” “future,” “anticipates,” “assumes,” “believes,” “embedded,” “estimates,” “expects,” “growth,” “intends,” “plans,” “predicts,” “projects,” “will,” “would,” “could,” “can,” “may,” or the negative of these terms or other similar expressions. Forward-looking statements contained in this earnings release include, but are not limited to, statements regarding the Company’s 2026 guidance and long-term performance outlook, trends with respect to rates, pretax margins, utilization, and medical costs, including the timing thereof and the anticipated impact on the Company’s business, and our management’s plans and objectives for future operations and business strategy.

Actual results could differ materially due to numerous known and unknown risks and uncertainties. These risks and uncertainties are discussed under the headings “Forward-Looking Statements,” and “Risk Factors,” in the Company’s Annual Report on Form 10‑K for the year ended December 31, 2025, which is on file with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”), and in the Company’s other filings with the SEC, including its Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the period ended March 31, 2026 filed with the SEC and Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the period ended June 30, 2026, to be filed with the SEC.

These reports can be accessed under the investor relations tab of the Company’s website or on the SEC’s website at sec.gov. Given these risks and uncertainties, the Company can give no assurances that its forward-looking statements will prove to be accurate, or that any other results or developments projected or contemplated by its forward-looking statements will in fact occur, and the Company cautions investors not to place undue reliance on these statements. All forward-looking statements in this release represent the Company’s judgment as of July 22, 2026, and, except as otherwise required by law, the Company disclaims any obligation to update any forward-looking statement to conform the statement to actual results or changes in its expectations.

MOLINA HEALTHCARE, INC.

UNAUDITED CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF INCOME

  Three Months Ended

Six Months Ended

June 30,

June 30,

2026

2025

2026

2025

(In millions, except per-share amounts)

Revenue:

Premium revenue

$

10,244

$

10,868

$

20,416

$

21,496

Premium tax revenue

505

431

1,009

819

Investment income

101

106

199

214

Other revenue

24

22

46

45

Total revenue

10,874

11,427

21,670

22,574

Operating expenses:

Medical care costs

9,440

9,829

18,710

19,308

General and administrative expenses

724

711

1,503

1,485

Premium tax expenses

505

431

1,009

819

Depreciation and amortization

40

58

79

106

Impairment

—

—

93

—

Other

20

25

48

50

Total operating expenses

10,729

11,054

21,442

21,768

Operating income

145

373

228

806

Interest expense

54

48

108

91

Income before income tax expense

91

325

120

715

Income tax expense

31

70

46

162

Net income

$

60

$

255

$

74

$

553

Net income per share – Diluted

$

1.19

$

4.75

$

1.46

$

10.19

Diluted weighted average shares outstanding

51.3

53.7

51.2

54.3

  MOLINA HEALTHCARE, INC.

CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEETS

  June 30,

December 31,

2026

2025

Unaudited

(Dollars in millions,

except per-share amounts)

ASSETS

Current assets:

Cash and cash equivalents

$

4,985

$

4,248

Investments

3,930

4,008

Receivables

3,485

3,533

Prepaid expenses and other current assets

528

655

Total current assets

12,928

12,444

Property, equipment, and capitalized software, net

311

301

Goodwill and intangible assets, net

2,082

2,195

Restricted investments

313

299

Deferred income taxes, net

229

178

Other assets

140

147

Total assets

$

16,003

$

15,564

LIABILITIES AND STOCKHOLDERS’ EQUITY

Current liabilities:

Medical claims and benefits payable

$

4,841

$

4,887

Amounts due government agencies

1,651

1,326

Accounts payable, accrued liabilities and other

1,139

1,093

Deferred revenue

69

66

Total current liabilities

7,700

7,372

Long-term debt

3,769

3,766

Finance lease liabilities

184

184

Other long-term liabilities

179

173

Total liabilities

11,832

11,495

Stockholders’ equity:

Common stock, $0.001 par value, 150 million shares authorized; outstanding: 52 million shares at June 30, 2026, and 51 million at December 31, 2025

—

—

Preferred stock, $0.001 par value; 20 million shares authorized, no shares issued and outstanding

—

—

Additional paid-in capital

511

452

Accumulated other comprehensive (loss) income

(16

)

15

Retained earnings

3,676

3,602

Total stockholders’ equity

4,171

4,069

Total liabilities and stockholders’ equity

$

16,003

$

15,564

  MOLINA HEALTHCARE, INC.

UNAUDITED CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF CASH FLOWS

  Six Months Ended

June 30,

2026

2025

(In millions)

Operating activities:

Net income

$

74

$

553

Adjustments to reconcile net income to net cash provided by (used in) operating activities:

Depreciation and amortization

79

106

Deferred income taxes

(41

)

22

Share-based compensation

59

30

Impairment

93

—

Other, net

(2

)

—

Changes in operating assets and liabilities:

Receivables

48

(466

)

Prepaid expenses and other current assets

9

10

Medical claims and benefits payable

(46

)

(50

)

Amounts due government agencies

325

(81

)

Accounts payable, accrued liabilities and other

66

(301

)

Deferred revenue

3

(59

)

Income taxes

121

124

Net cash provided by (used in) operating activities

788

(112

)

Investing activities:

Purchases of investments

(626

)

(421

)

Proceeds from sales and maturities of investments

672

717

Purchases of property, equipment, and capitalized software

(57

)

(64

)

Net cash paid in business combinations

—

(245

)

Other, net

(8

)

18

Net cash (used in) provided by investing activities

(19

)

5

Financing activities:

Proceeds from borrowings under credit facility and term loans

—

650

Common stock purchases

—

(500

)

Repayment of credit facility and term loans

—

(200

)

Common stock withheld to settle employee tax obligations

(14

)

(36

)

Other, net

(10

)

44

Net cash used in financing activities

(24

)

(42

)

Net increase (decrease) in cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash and cash equivalents

745

(149

)

Cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash and cash equivalents at beginning of period

4,348

4,741

Cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash and cash equivalents at end of period

$

5,093

$

4,592

  MOLINA HEALTHCARE, INC.

UNAUDITED SEGMENT DATA

(Dollars in millions)

  June 30,

December 31,

June 30,

2026

2025

2025

Ending Membership by Segment:

Medicaid

4,418,000

4,568,000

4,774,000

Medicare

224,000

262,000

267,000

Marketplace

283,000

655,000

690,000

Other

1,000

6,000

15,000

Total

4,926,000

5,491,000

5,746,000

Three Months Ended June 30,

2026

2025

Premium Revenue

Medical

Margin

MCR (1)

Premium Revenue

Medical

Margin

MCR (1)

Medicaid

$

8,049

$

585

92.7

%

$

8,029

$

697

91.3

%

Medicare

1,565

146

90.7

1,608

161

90.0

Marketplace

628

69

88.9

1,200

175

85.4

Other (2)

2

4

NM

31

6

NM

Consolidated

$

10,244

$

804

92.2

%

$

10,868

$

1,039

90.4

%

Six Months Ended June 30,

2026

2025

Premium Revenue

Medical

Margin

MCR (1)

Premium Revenue

Medical

Margin

MCR (1)

Medicaid

$

15,976

$

1,216

92.4

%

$

16,159

$

1,488

90.8

%

Medicare

3,082

300

90.3

3,076

333

89.2

Marketplace

1,352

185

86.3

2,204

358

83.7

Other (2)

6

5

NM

57

9

NM

Consolidated

$

20,416

$

1,706

91.6

%

$

21,496

$

2,188

89.8

%

(1) The MCR represents medical costs as a percentage of premium revenue.

(2) The Other MCRs are not meaningful.

MOLINA HEALTHCARE, INC.
CHANGE IN MEDICAL CLAIMS AND BENEFITS PAYABLE
(Dollars in millions)

The Company’s claims liabilities include additional reserves to account for moderately adverse conditions based on historical experience and other factors including, but not limited to, variations in claims payment patterns, changes in utilization and cost trends, known outbreaks of disease, and large claims. The Company’s reserving methodology is consistently applied across all periods presented. The amounts displayed for “Components of medical care costs related to: Prior year” represent the amounts by which the original estimates of claims and benefits payable at the beginning of the year were more than the actual liabilities based on information (principally the payment of claims) developed since those liabilities were first reported. The following table presents the components of the change in medical claims and benefits payable for the periods indicated:

Six Months Ended

June 30,

2026

2025

Unaudited

Medical claims and benefits payable, beginning balance

$

4,887

$

4,640

Components of medical care costs related to:

Current year

18,995

19,509

Prior year

(285

)

(201

)

Total medical care costs

18,710

19,308

Payments for medical care costs related to:

Current year

15,062

15,700

Prior year

3,918

3,918

Total paid

18,980

19,618

Acquired balances, net of post-acquisition adjustments

—

295

Change in non-risk and other payables

224

260

Medical claims and benefits payable, ending balance

$

4,841

$

4,885

Days in Claims Payable (1)

44

43

__________________

MOLINA HEALTHCARE, INC.
RECONCILIATION OF UNAUDITED NON-GAAP FINANCIAL MEASURES
(In millions, except per diluted share amounts)

The Company believes that certain non-GAAP (generally accepted accounting principles) financial measures are useful supplemental measures to investors in comparing the Company’s performance to the performance of other public companies in the health care industry. The non-GAAP financial measures are also used internally to enable management to assess the Company’s performance consistently over time. These non-GAAP financial measures, presented below, should be considered as supplements to, and not as substitutes for or superior to, GAAP measures.

Adjustments represent additions and deductions to GAAP net income as indicated in the table below, which include the non-cash impact of amortization of acquired intangible assets, acquisition-related expenses, impairments, and the impact of certain expenses and other items that management believes are not indicative of longer-term business trends and operations.

Adjusted G&A Ratio represents the GAAP G&A ratio, recognizing adjustments.

Adjusted net income represents GAAP net income recognizing the adjustments, net of tax. The Company believes that adjusted net income is helpful to investors in assessing the Company’s financial performance.

Adjusted net income per diluted share represents adjusted net income divided by weighted average common shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis.

Adjusted pre-tax margin represents adjusted income before income tax expense, divided by total revenue.

Three Months Ended June 30,

Six Months Ended June 30,

2026

2025

2026

2025

Amount

Per Diluted Share

Amount

Per Diluted Share

Amount

Per Diluted Share

Amount

Per Diluted Share

GAAP Net income

$

60

$

1.19

$

255

$

4.75

$

74

$

1.46

$

553

$

10.19

Adjustments:

Amortization of intangible assets

$

9

$

0.18

$

32

$

0.60

$

19

$

0.38

$

53

$

0.99

Acquisition-related expenses (1)

12

0.23

19

0.37

33

0.64

42

0.78

Impairment (2)

—

—

—

—

93

1.82

—

—

Other (3)

—

—

—

—

21

0.41

2

0.03

Subtotal, adjustments

21

0.41

51

0.97

166

3.25

97

1.80

Income tax effect

(4

)

(0.09

)

(12

)

(0.24

)

(43

)

(0.85

)

(23

)

(0.43

)

Adjustments, net of tax

17

0.32

39

0.73

123

2.40

74

1.37

Adjusted net income

$

77

$

1.51

$

294

$

5.48

$

197

$

3.86

$

627

$

11.56

__________________ 

MOLINA HEALTHCARE, INC.

RECONCILIATION OF UNAUDITED NON-GAAP FINANCIAL MEASURES (CONTINUED)

2026 GUIDANCE

  Amount

Per Diluted Share (2)

GAAP Net income

$

110

$

2.15

Adjustments:

Acquisition-related expenses

64

1.24

Amortization of intangible assets

36

0.71

Impairment

93

1.83

Other

21

0.41

Subtotal, adjustments

214

4.19

Income tax effect (1)

(56

)

(1.09

)

Adjustments, net of tax

158

3.10

Adjusted net income

$

268

$

5.25

__________________

More News From Molina Healthcare, Inc.

, /PRNewswire/ -- S&P SmallCap 600 constituent Molina Healthcare Inc. (NYSE: MOH) will replace National Storage Affiliates Trust (NYSE: NSA) in the S&P MidCap 400, and Construction Partners Inc. (NASD: ROAD) will replace Molina Healthcare in the S&P SmallCap 600 effective prior to the opening of trading on Wednesday, July 22. S&P 500 constituent Public Storage (NYSE: PSA) is acquiring National Storage Affiliates Trust in a deal that is expected to be completed on or about that date pending final conditions.

Following is a summary of the changes that will take place prior to the open of trading on the effective date:

Effective Date

Index Name      

Action

Company Name

Ticker

GICS Sector

July 22, 2026

S&P MidCap 400

Addition

Molina Healthcare

MOH

Health Care

July 22, 2026

S&P MidCap 400

Deletion

National Storage Affiliates Trust

NSA

Real Estate

July 22, 2026

S&P SmallCap 600

Addition

Construction Partners

ROAD

Industrials

July 22, 2026

S&P SmallCap 600

Deletion

Molina Healthcare

MOH

Health Care

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Molina (MOH) witnessed a jump in share price last session on above-average trading volume. The latest trend in earnings estimate revisions for the stock doesn't suggest further strength down the road.

© Photo by Astrid Stawiarz/Getty Images

Before Michael Burry shut down Scion Asset Management in late 2025 and pivoted to publishing a Substack newsletter warning of an “AI Bubble,” his final 13F filings reportedly disclosed put options against NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA | NVDA Price Prediction) and Palantir (NASDAQ:PLTR) alongside a heavy rotation, around 51% of the disclosed portfolio, into health insurer Molina Healthcare. That is the documented record, a snapshot rather than a live position.

This distinction matters because Burry of The Big Short fame is now an opinion writer, not a regulated filer. Scion was deregistered, so there are no ongoing 13F disclosures to verify what he holds right now. His current commentary lives on his newsletter. The trades below are a snapshot of how he was positioned before closing the fund, paired with his ongoing public warnings about AI-era valuations.

What the final filings actually said The pairing was tidy. Short the most crowded story in the market, long the most ignored one. The puts targeted NVIDIA and Palantir, the two names most often used as shorthand for AI-infrastructure excess. NVIDIA carries a market capitalization of roughly $4.95 trillion and a price-to-sales ratio of 19.5. NVIDIA’s forward P/E of 23x looks restrained next to Palantir, which trades at elevated multiples on both earnings and book value.

The long side was Molina Healthcare (NYSE:MOH), a Medicaid-focused managed-care operator whose shares are down 34% over the past year and trade at a price-to-sales ratio of 0.2x. The contrast is the entire trade.

The thesis, reconstructed from the data On NVIDIA, the bear case sidesteps the operating business entirely. Q1 FY27 revenue grew 85.2% year over year to $81.61 billion, with Data Center revenue up 92%. The bear case is that hyperscaler capex cycles historically revert, that the Q2 guide assumes zero Data Center compute revenue from China, and that $119 billion of supply commitments sit on the balance sheet against customer concentration that has rarely looked this top-heavy. The stock is down 8% over the past month even as fundamentals beat estimates.

Molina is the mirror image. Q4 2025 produced an adjusted loss of $2.75 per share against a $0.50 estimate, dragged down by roughly $2.00 per share of unfavorable California Medicaid retroactive premium adjustments plus surging Medicare and Marketplace costs. CEO Joseph Zubretsky called 2026 “a trough year for Medicaid industry margins” and pointed to more than $11.00 per share of embedded earnings from new contracts in California, Texas, Georgia, Ohio and others between 2027 and 2029. The company executed a $1 billion buyback in FY25 at depressed prices. That is the contrarian setup: identifiable margin trough, contracted growth, shrinking share count.

What a retirement investor should actually take from this Copying the short side is the wrong lesson. Put options expire, Scion no longer files, and Burry has been early or wrong on macro calls between the housing trade and now. The 13F snapshot captures only what he believed at one moment in the past.

The long side is more useful. Molina trades at a forward P/E of 21x (on 2027 earnings), with an analyst sentiment that skews cautious: 13 holds against 4 buys. Shares have rallied 9.6% year to date, suggesting the trough-margin narrative is starting to find buyers. For a retirement-focused portfolio, the thesis worth studying is the patient one: own the cyclical bottom of an essential service business, collect the buyback yield, and wait for rate restoration. That is a thesis you can underwrite yourself. The NVIDIA puts are theater.

CNC tops Q1 estimates on strong premiums, lifts 2026 outlook with higher revenue and EPS guidance despite membership decline and rising costs.

Molina Healthcare, Inc. (MOH) Analyst/Investor Day Transcript

LAWRENCE, Mass.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Molina Healthcare and The MolinaCares Accord donate $120,000 to support programming for young adults with disabilities.

© Photo by Astrid Stawiarz/Getty Images

Pfizer (NYSE:PFE | PFE Price Prediction) at $25.75, Molina Healthcare (NYSE:MOH) at $186.80, and Halliburton (NYSE:HAL) at $41.29 trade at defensive, cash-generative valuations. Michael Burry purchased these shares for their real earnings and margin stability, and with inflation still pressuring margins across the market, names that generate cash, hold pricing power, and trade at sober multiples carry a structural edge.

Each of these companies sits in a defensive corner of its sector. Pfizer is a low-beta pharma giant lapping the COVID cliff. Molina is a Medicaid-focused managed care operator working through a self-described trough year. Halliburton is an oilfield services leader leveraged to a sharp recovery in crude prices.

Pfizer: A 6.66% Yield and a Forward Multiple That Smells Like a Rebound Pfizer trades at a forward P/E of 9 against a trailing P/E of 20, with the gap reflecting analyst expectations for earnings expansion as the COVID drag fades. The 6.66% dividend yield is rare among large-cap pharma, and the 0.305 beta puts Pfizer among the least volatile names in the S&P 500.

The non-COVID portfolio grew 9% operationally in Q4 2025, and management has flagged roughly 20 pivotal trial starts ahead, including obesity assets from the Metsera acquisition. The analyst target of $29.11 implies meaningful upside from here, and shares are up 25.15% over the past year. Targets are not guarantees, but 11 of 29 covering analysts rate the stock Buy or Strong Buy, with only 3 at Sell or Strong Sell.

Molina Healthcare: Buying the Trough Molina cratered after Q4 2025, when adjusted EPS came in at a $2.75 loss against a $0.50 consensus. CEO Joseph Zubretsky has since framed 2026 as “a trough year for Medicaid industry margins“, with embedded earnings exceeding $11.00 per share targeted for 2027 through 2029 as new contracts mature.

The stock has already rallied 26.64% in the past month as buyers look past the trough. The analyst target sits at $182.25, roughly even with the current price, meaning upside comes from earnings recovery rather than multiple expansion. With a 0.848 beta and exposure to non-discretionary government healthcare spending, Molina is a contrarian inflation hedge.

Halliburton: Cash Flow Riding a Crude Recovery Halliburton’s Q1 2026 print delivered EPS of $0.55 against a $0.50 estimate on revenue of $5.40 billion. WTI crude has climbed from $57.97 in December 2025 to $100.32 in April 2026, a powerful tailwind for oilfield services demand.

Management returned 85% of free cash flow to shareholders in 2025 through $1 billion in buybacks and a steady $0.17 quarterly dividend. CEO Jeff Miller describes North America as in the “early innings of a recovery”. Shares are up 46.83% year to date, and the $42.36 analyst target alongside 19 Buy or Strong Buy ratings versus 3 Sells points to continued institutional conviction.

Why Burry’s Playbook Fits This Tape At $25.75, $186.80, and $41.29, Pfizer, Molina, and Halliburton share a defensive valuation profile. Each name earns its keep through cash flow first. Pfizer’s pipeline plus a near-7% yield pays investors to wait through the patent cliff. Molina’s trough year resets the bar low enough that any rate normalization snaps earnings back hard. Halliburton’s capital return discipline turns a cyclical business into a shareholder yield machine while crude trends higher.

The shared risk is a recession that drags all three down together. The shared edge is a valuation that already discounts the bad news. For investors hedging inflation with durable cash earnings, the Burry basket holds up at these prices.

It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Molina (MOH - Free Report) . Shares have added about 3.8% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

But investors have to be wondering, will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Molina due for a pullback? Well, first let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the recent drivers for Molina Healthcare, Inc before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late.

MOH Q1 EPS Tops Estimates on Lower Medical Costs, Membership Declines

Molina Healthcare reported first-quarter 2026 adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $2.35, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.57. The bottom line declined 61.3% from the year-ago period's level.

Revenues amounted to $10.8 billion, which decreased 3.1% year over year. The top line marginally missed the consensus mark by 0.2%.

The first-quarter performance was supported by lower medical care costs, partially offset by declining premiums, membership and investment income.

MOH’s Q1 Operational UpdatePremium revenues of $10.2 billion decreased 4.3% year over year in the quarter under review and missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.2%. The decline was due to reduced memberships, reflecting product and pricing decisions.

As of March 31, 2026, total membership decreased 12.5% year over year to around 5 million and missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.2%. The health insurer witnessed a year-over-year decrease in customers across all segments, especially in Marketplace and Other.

Investment income fell 9.3% year over year to $98 million. It missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $100.8 million.

Total operating expenses were $10.71 billion, flat year over year and slightly below our model estimate of $10.72 billion, driven by lower medical care costs. The adjusted general and administrative expense ratio increased to 6.9% in the first quarter from 6.3% a year ago. Interest expenses of $54 million rose from $43 million in the prior year.

The consolidated medical care ratio (medical costs as a percentage of premium revenues), or MCR, was 91.1% in the reported quarter. It rose from 89.2% a year ago but was below the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 91.5%.

Molina Healthcare’s adjusted net income decreased 64% year over year to $120 million.

MOH’s Financial Update (as of March 31, 2026)Molina Healthcare exited the first quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $5.3 billion, which increased from the 2025-end level of $4.2 billion. Total assets of $16.4 billion rose from $15.6 billion at 2025-end.

Long-term debt was $3.8 billion, unchanged from the 2025-end levels.

Total stockholders’ equity of $4.08 billion rose from $4.07 billion at the end of 2025.

Net cash provided by operating activities amounted to $1.1 billion in the first quarter of 2026 compared with $190 million in the prior year.

MOH’s 2026 GuidanceThe company's full-year 2026 premium revenue guidance has remained unchanged at about $42 billion, down roughly 2% from 2025.

Management expects 2026 GAAP earnings of at least $1.90 per diluted share. It has reaffirmed adjusted earnings guidance of at least $5.00 per diluted share.

Adjusted net income is projected to be $256 million, while GAAP net income is expected to reach $97 million in 2026.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in estimates revision.

The consensus estimate has shifted -13.64% due to these changes.

VGM ScoresCurrently, Molina has a average Growth Score of C, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with an F. However, the stock has a grade of A on the value side, putting it in the top quintile for value investors.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of C. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

OutlookEstimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, Molina has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). We expect an above average return from the stock in the next few months.

Performance of an Industry PlayerMolina belongs to the Zacks Medical - HMOs industry. Another stock from the same industry, UnitedHealth Group (UNH - Free Report) , has gained 7.9% over the past month. More than a month has passed since the company reported results for the quarter ended March 2026.

UnitedHealth reported revenues of $111.72 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +2%. EPS of $7.23 for the same period compares with $7.20 a year ago.

For the current quarter, UnitedHealth is expected to post earnings of $4.84 per share, indicating a change of +18.6% from the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed +1.5% over the last 30 days.

UnitedHealth has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) based on the overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions. Additionally, the stock has a VGM Score of B.

Key Takeaways Molina Healthcare trades at 26.83X P/E, above the industry average of 17.09X and its 5-year median.MOH reaffirmed 2026 premium revenue guidance near $42B despite lower Medicaid membership.Molina Healthcare ended Q1 2026 with $5.3B cash and operating cash flow rising to $1.1B. Molina Healthcare, Inc. (MOH - Free Report) is a multi-state managed care organization that provides healthcare services under Medicaid, Medicare and state insurance marketplaces. The company operates through four segments — Medicaid, Medicare, Marketplace and Other — with a primary focus on delivering affordable healthcare coverage to low-income individuals and families.

Headquartered in Long Beach, CA, it carries a market capitalization of nearly $9.2 billion. The stock has gained 18.8% over the past six months, outperforming the industry’s 17.3% growth. MOH currently trades at a trailing 12-month P/E ratio of 26.83X, higher than the industry average of 17.09X, reflecting investors’ confidence in its long-term growth prospects and operational strength.

Supported by solid fundamentals, the stock currently carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy).

Where Do Estimates for MOH Stand?The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Molina Healthcare’s 2026 earnings is pegged at $5.23 per share. In the past 60 days, it has witnessed five upward estimate revisions against none in the opposite direction. The consensus estimate for revenues is pegged at $44.07 billion for 2026. The 2027 revenue estimate is pegged at $46.4 billion, indicating a 5.3% year-over-year increase.

Molina Healthcare, Inc Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Molina Healthcare, Inc price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Molina Healthcare, Inc Quote

MOH’s Growth DriversMOH has steadily expanded its market presence through strategic acquisitions across Medicaid, Medicare and long-term care programs, strengthening its geographic footprint and broadening its service capabilities. The company also maintains solid financial flexibility for future expansion, with no borrowings under its $1.25 billion revolving credit facility and access to up to $800 million in incremental term-loan capacity. Further, its return on invested capital (ROIC) of 7% compares with the industry average of 5.5%, highlighting disciplined capital deployment and efficient integration of acquired businesses.

Molina Healthcare’s premium revenues declined 4.3% year over year to $10.2 billion in the first quarter of 2026 due to lower Medicaid and Marketplace membership. However, the company reaffirmed its full-year 2026 premium revenue guidance of nearly $42 billion, reflecting management’s confidence in the stability of its core business.

Expense discipline remains a key strength for Molina Healthcare, with the adjusted G&A ratio improving 50 basis points in 2024 and another 20 basis points in 2025. Although the adjusted G&A ratio increased to 6.9% in first-quarter 2026 from 6.3% a year ago, management still expects the full-year ratio to remain around 6.4% reflecting ongoing scalability initiatives.

Molina Healthcare exited first-quarter 2026 with a strong balance sheet. As of March 31, 2026, it held $5.3 billion in cash and cash equivalents against long-term debt of $3.8 billion. Operating cash flow surged to $1.1 billion from $190 million in the prior-year quarter, reflecting solid cash generation. Its healthy liquidity profile provides flexibility to support contractual capital needs, invest in growth opportunities and navigate industry volatility.

Risks to ConsiderThere are a few factors investors should monitor closely.

Molina Healthcare continues to face pressure from elevated medical costs, with its consolidated MCR rising to 91.1% in first-quarter 2026 from 89.2% a year ago. Management also expects Medicaid and Marketplace MCRs to remain elevated through 2026, which could weigh on margin recovery.

MOH trades at a premium valuation, with a forward P/E of 26.83X compared with the industry average of 17.09X and its five-year median of 14.69X. The stretched valuation may limit upside potential if earnings growth remains under pressure.

Other Key PicksSome other top-ranked stocks in the Medical space are Centene Corporation (CNC - Free Report) , The Joint Corp. (JYNT - Free Report) and Indivior Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (INDV - Free Report) , each sporting a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Centene’s 2026 earnings is pegged at $3.47 per share, indicating 66.8% year-over-year growth. It has witnessed nine upward revisions in the past 30 days, with no movement in the opposite direction. CNC beat earnings estimates in three of the trailing four quarters and missed once, with the average surprise being 74.9%. The consensus estimate for 2026 revenues is pinned at $191.03 billion.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Joint’s 2026 earnings is pegged at 51 cents per share, which has witnessed two upward revisions in the past 30 days, with no movement in the opposite direction. JYNT beat earnings estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, with the average surprise being 125.24%. The consensus estimate for 2026 revenues is pinned at $61.11 million, indicating an 11.3% year-over-year increase.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Indivior Pharmaceuticals’ 2026 earnings is pegged at $3.35 per share, indicating a 34% year-over-year improvement. INDV beat earnings estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, with the average surprise being 65.44%. The consensus estimate for 2026 revenues is pinned at $1.26 billion, implying 1.5% year-over-year growth.

Here at Zacks, we focus on our proven ranking system, which places an emphasis on earnings estimates and estimate revisions, to find winning stocks. But we also understand that investors develop their own strategies, so we are constantly looking at the latest trends in value, growth, and momentum to find strong companies for our readers.

Of these, value investing is easily one of the most popular ways to find great stocks in any market environment. Value investors rely on traditional forms of analysis on key valuation metrics to find stocks that they believe are undervalued, leaving room for profits.

On top of the Zacks Rank, investors can also look at our innovative Style Scores system to find stocks with specific traits. For example, value investors will want to focus on the "Value" category. Stocks with high Zacks Ranks and "A" grades for Value will be some of the highest-quality value stocks on the market today.

One company value investors might notice is Molina Healthcare (MOH - Free Report) . MOH is currently sporting a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy), as well as a Value grade of A. The stock is trading with P/E ratio of 9.08 right now. For comparison, its industry sports an average P/E of 16.61. Over the last 12 months, MOH's Forward P/E has been as high as 13.98 and as low as 6.48, with a median of 11.46.

Another notable valuation metric for MOH is its P/B ratio of 2.06. The P/B ratio is used to compare a stock's market value with its book value, which is defined as total assets minus total liabilities. This company's current P/B looks solid when compared to its industry's average P/B of 2.45. MOH's P/B has been as high as 4.44 and as low as 1.79, with a median of 3.71, over the past year.

Value investors also frequently use the P/S ratio. This metric is found by dividing a stock's price with the company's revenue. Some people prefer this metric because sales are harder to manipulate on an income statement. This means it could be a truer performance indicator. MOH has a P/S ratio of 0.21. This compares to its industry's average P/S of 0.27.

Finally, investors will want to recognize that MOH has a P/CF ratio of 7.07. This metric takes into account a company's operating cash flow and can be used to find stocks that are undervalued based on their solid cash outlook. MOH's current P/CF looks attractive when compared to its industry's average P/CF of 19.51. Within the past 12 months, MOH's P/CF has been as high as 16.68 and as low as 6.15, with a median of 12.60.

Value investors will likely look at more than just these metrics, but the above data helps show that Molina Healthcare is likely undervalued currently. And when considering the strength of its earnings outlook, MOH sticks out as one of the market's strongest value stocks.