Společnost McDonald's za poslední čtvrtletí zvýšila tržby o 5 %, ale srovnatelné tržby vzrostly jen o 1,3 % a v USA o 0,8 %. Nové levné menu zatím nepřineslo výrazný impuls.
McDonald's (MCD -0.89%) is a leader in the fast-food industry, and it's an iconic brand all over the world. The challenge, however, is that when a business reaches a massive size, it becomes much harder for it to grow quickly. And the company's recent results highlight that, as they were fairly modest.
Can McDonald's still be a top stock to buy right now, or are its best days behind it?
Image source: Getty Images.
Comparable sales were light in the company's most recent quarter Last week, McDonald's reported its latest quarterly results for the period ending June 30. The numbers weren't great. While its total sales rose by 5% year over year, its comparable store sales growth rate was much more modest, coming in at just 1.3%. And in the U.S. market, it was just 0.8%.
Comparable store sales look at how much revenue the company is generating from existing locations versus the same locations in the prior-year period. Thus, it's reflective of the organic growth the business is generating, and it excludes the boost it gets from opening new stores.
What's concerning is that in April, the company expanded its value offerings, including the launch of a new under $3 menu, and that hasn't shown to be a huge catalyst, at least not in its early stages, anyway. At a time when consumers are looking to save on anything and everything, it's a move that investors may have expected to be a catalyst for the fast-food business. But that hasn't proven to be the case at all.
Today's Change
(
-0.89
%) $
-2.44
Current Price
$
272.05
McDonald's stock can still be a good buy, but it may not be ideal for growth investors McDonald's has a highly profitable and scalable business. But generating meaningful, organic growth may prove to be a challenge in a highly competitive fast-food industry. Rising prices in recent years don't make things any easier, either.
The stock can still be a solid option for income investors as it yields 2.7%, which is a far higher rate than the S&P 500 average of only 1.1%. But for growth investors, there are many other, better growth stocks to buy than McDonald's. Last year, its annual revenue totaled $26.9 billion, which rose by less than 4% from the previous year. It may still generate modest growth in the long run, but growth investors may be underwhelmed with its performance. In the past five years, the stock has risen by just 16%, while the S&P 500 has increased by 75% in value.
David Jagielski, CPA has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends the following options: long January 2028 $320 calls on McDonald's and short January 2028 $340 calls on McDonald's. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Burger King’s US sales are soaring as customers embrace its revamped Whopper – while long-reigning McDonald’s suffers flailing growth in its largest market.
In the most recent quarter, Burger King’s US same-store sales jumped 8.5%, owner Restaurant Brands International – which also owns Tim Horton and Popeyes – said Thursday.
Burger King’s US sales are soaring as customers embrace its revamped Whopper burger. IanDewarPhotography – stock.adobe.com McDonald’s, meanwhile, saw US same-store sales growth of just 0.8%, which executives called disappointing. The company on Tuesday announced it has hired a new president for its US division in an attempt to drive sales.
The fast-food giants’ rivalry has been heating up this year amid a battle between their biggest burgers, after they both unveiled their own version of calorie-bomb patties on the same day in February.
Burger King updated its iconic Whopper with a “premium” bun, “better-tasting mayo” and a box container instead of a paper wrapper while McDonald’s brought the Big Arch Burger to the US. It features two quarter-pound beef patties and three slices of melted cheese.
McDonald’s CEO Chris Kempczinski was ruthlessly mocked online for a video touting the burger, in which he took a weirdly timid bite.
On Thursday, RBI said Burger King’s turnaround effort — which included the updated Whopper, restaurant renovations and a new marketing campaign — helped draw in customers.
“Burger King’s performance is a great example of what’s possible when you invest in the fundamentals and execute well – an approach we’re applying across all of our brands,” Restaurant Brands CEO Josh Kobza said in a statement.
RBI said Burger King’s “standout performance” extended overseas, as its international restaurants enjoyed same-store sales growth of 5.4% in the last quarter.
Michael Gunther, SVP of research and market intelligence at Consumer Intelligence, said Burger King’s outperformance was broad – with accelerating growth in traffic, average check size and market share gains across all age and income groups.
Burger King’s updated Whopper (left) and the McDonald’s Big Arch Burger (right). Tamara Beckwith/NY Post “These trends are notable amid a challenging environment for restaurants as consumers – especially lower-income diners that make up an outsized share of Burger King’s base – face macroeconomic pressures and cost-of-living concerns,” Gunther said in a note Thursday.
Executives said there is more room for improvement at Burger King, since not all of its US restaurants have been remodeled yet – and RBI’s other brands struggled in the same period.
McDonald’s on Tuesday reported mixed quarterly results, including adjusting earnings per share of $3.38 that beat expectations but revenue of $7.10 billion that missed estimates of $7.13 billion.
“We don’t have a strategy problem,” Kempczinski said during the company’s earnings call. “We simply didn’t execute at the level we needed to in the second quarter.”
Skye Anderson, a 26-year McDonald’s veteran, will be taking over the role of president of the chain’s US business – succeeding Joe Erlinger, who held the position for over six years.
McDonald’s on Tuesday reported mixed quarterly results. AFP via Getty Images While average check size rose at McDonald’s US joints, traffic fell, the company said.
Executives blamed that poor performance on a disjointed rollout of its value offerings, including an “under $3 menu” that aimed to win over inflation-battered customers.
McDonald’s US restaurants are mostly run by franchisees, who are allowed to set their own prices – meaning only about 60% to 65% of the company’s system has adopted the special discount menu, according to Kempczinski.
After facing fervent backlash over rising prices at the drive-thru, McDonald’s also tried to launch too many value offerings at once, which ultimately slowed down restaurant operations – adding to wait times and resulting in frustrated customers, the company said.
“While our playbook is working around the world, we see an opportunity to raise the bar in the US and accelerate performance in our largest market,” Kempczinski said.
McDonald’s said it expects its US same-store sales to return to strong growth by 2027 if it revamps its operations and marketing.
The company saw much stronger results outside of the US, with same-store sales growth of 1.5% in international operated markets and 1.9% in international developmental licensed markets.
McDonald's přehodnocuje svou cenově výhodnou nabídku po slabém druhém čtvrtletí, kdy omezil digitální slevy a nedařilo se mu zavést nové menu pod 3 USD. To zpomalilo růst tržeb v USA.
By You're currently following this author! Want to unfollow? Unsubscribe via the link in your email.
McDonald's is facing challenges with its value menu. Robert Nickelsberg/Getty Images McDonald's is facing big problems with some of the cheapest items on its menu.
The fast-food giant is rethinking its approach to value-priced options after a rough few months, executives said on Tuesday.
CEO Chris Kempczinski pointed to multiple problems on the company's second-quarter earnings call. The chain cut back on digital discounts, alienating some of its most loyal patrons. It also struggled to roll out its new under-$3 value menu to restaurants. And McDonald's had too many promotions too close together, from special World Cup meals to new refresher beverages.
McDonald's quarterly US sales growth slowed down as a result.
"We don't have a strategy problem," Kempczinski said. "We simply didn't execute at the level we needed to in the second quarter."
McDonald's has plenty of competition, with rivals eager to offer diners deals on a cheap burger.
We want to know what you think. Whether you're a weekly McDonald's customer or have stopped going altogether, we're interested in hearing your thoughts on the chain's value and prices.
Do you have a story idea about McDonald's? Contact this reporter at [email protected] or via encrypted messaging app Signal at 808-854-4501. Use a personal email address, a nonwork WiFi network, and a nonwork device; here's our guide to sharing information securely.
Read next
Alex Bitter You're currently following this author! Want to unfollow? Unsubscribe via the link in your email.
Alex Bitter is a senior retail reporter covering the gig economy, food, and retail. His work focuses major gig delivery and ride-hailing apps, including Uber, Lyft, DoorDash, Instacart, and Walmart's Spark. He is interested in everything from what it's like to work on the apps to the companies' business strategies.Some of his recent stories feature gig workers who have been deactivated on the apps, DoorDash hiring traditional employees to make deliveries, gig workers' use of bots, and gig work expanding into new professions, such as nursing.Alex has also written about Aldi's US expansion, Starbucks' turnaround efforts, and the fallout from Kraft-Heinz's budget cutting. Convenience store chain Sheetz ended its "smile policy" after his reporting.Before joining Insider in September 2020, he wrote about consumer and retail companies for S&P Global Market Intelligence. He's a graduate of the University of Hawai'i at Mānoa and grew up on the Big Island.Alex lives in the Washington, DC, area, where you can find him studying ancient coins or searching for Civil War artifacts with his metal detector in his free time.Got a tip? Reach out at [email protected] or via encrypted messaging app Signal at +1 (808) 854-4501.
McDonald's Corporation (MCD) Q2 2026 Earnings Call August 4, 2026 8:30 AM EDT
Company Participants
Dexter Congbalay - Vice President of Investor Relations
Christopher Kempczinski - Chairman President, & CEO
Ian Borden - Executive VP & Global CFO
Conference Call Participants
David Palmer - Evercore ISI Institutional Equities, Research Division
Dennis Geiger - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division
Brian Harbour - Morgan Stanley, Research Division
John Ivankoe - JPMorgan Chase & Co, Research Division
Sara Senatore - BofA Securities, Research Division
David Tarantino - Robert W. Baird & Co. Incorporated, Research Division
Jon Tower - Citigroup Inc., Research Division
Lauren Silberman - Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division
Presentation
Operator
Hello, and welcome to McDonald's Second Quarter 2026 Investor Conference Call. At the request of McDonald's Corporation, this conference is being recorded. [Operator Instructions]
I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Dexter Congbalay, Vice President of Investor Relations for McDonald's Corporation. Mr. Congbalay, you may begin.
Dexter Congbalay
Vice President of Investor Relations
Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. With me on the call today are Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Chris Kempczinski; and Chief Financial Officer, Ian Borden.
As a reminder, the forward-looking statements in our earnings release and 8-K filing also apply to our comments on the call today. Both of those documents are available on our website as are reconciliations of any non-GAAP financial measures mentioned on today's call, along with their corresponding GAAP measures. Following prepared remarks this morning, we will take your questions. Please limit yourself to one question and then reenter the queue for any additional questions. Today's conference call is being webcast and is also being recorded for replay via our website.
And now I'll turn it over to Chris.
Christopher Kempczinski
Chairman President, & CEO
Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. Before Ian
McDonald's (MCD - Free Report) came out with quarterly earnings of $3.38 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.32 per share. This compares to earnings of $3.19 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items.
This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of +1.81%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this world's biggest hamburger chain would post earnings of $2.74 per share when it actually produced earnings of $2.83, delivering a surprise of +3.28%.
Over the last four quarters, the company has surpassed consensus EPS estimates three times.
McDonald's, which belongs to the Zacks Retail - Restaurants industry, posted revenues of $7.1 billion for the quarter ended June 2026, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.51%. This compares to year-ago revenues of $6.84 billion. The company has topped consensus revenue estimates three times over the last four quarters.
The sustainability of the stock's immediate price movement based on the recently-released numbers and future earnings expectations will mostly depend on management's commentary on the earnings call.
McDonald's shares have lost about 13.2% since the beginning of the year versus the S&P 500's gain of 11%.
What's Next for McDonald's?While McDonald's has underperformed the market so far this year, the question that comes to investors' minds is: what's next for the stock?
There are no easy answers to this key question, but one reliable measure that can help investors address this is the company's earnings outlook. Not only does this include current consensus earnings expectations for the coming quarter(s), but also how these expectations have changed lately.
Empirical research shows a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions. Investors can track such revisions by themselves or rely on a tried-and-tested rating tool like the Zacks Rank, which has an impressive track record of harnessing the power of earnings estimate revisions.
Ahead of this earnings release, the estimate revisions trend for McDonald's was unfavorable. While the magnitude and direction of estimate revisions could change following the company's just-released earnings report, the current status translates into a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) for the stock. So, the shares are expected to underperform the market in the near future. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
It will be interesting to see how estimates for the coming quarters and the current fiscal year change in the days ahead. The current consensus EPS estimate is $3.41 on $7.34 billion in revenues for the coming quarter and $12.85 on $28.34 billion in revenues for the current fiscal year.
Investors should be mindful of the fact that the outlook for the industry can have a material impact on the performance of the stock as well. In terms of the Zacks Industry Rank, Retail - Restaurants is currently in the bottom 34% of the 250 plus Zacks industries. Our research shows that the top 50% of the Zacks-ranked industries outperform the bottom 50% by a factor of more than 2 to 1.
One other stock from the same industry, Bloomin' Brands (BLMN - Free Report) , is yet to report results for the quarter ended June 2026. The results are expected to be released on August 5.
This owner of Outback Steakhouse and other casual dining spots is expected to post quarterly earnings of $0.28 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of -15.2%. The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised 1.1% lower over the last 30 days to the current level.
Bloomin' Brands' revenues are expected to be $999.08 million, down 0.3% from the year-ago quarter.
McDonald's jmenoval zkušenou manažerku Skye Andersonovou prezidentkou pro USA, protože v největším trhu zpomaluje růst. Zároveň oznámil, že výsledky za 2. čtvrtletí překonaly odhady, ale tržby za nimi zaostaly.
McDonald's announced that company veteran Skye Anderson will lead its U.S. business, effective Tuesday, as the company tries to win over cost-conscious diners in its largest market.
"I look forward to working closely with her and the U.S. leadership team to help accelerate performance and unlock the significant opportunity in front of us, and I have tremendous confidence that she is the ideal leader for this next phase of our U.S. business," McDonald's CEO Chris Kempczinski said in a statement.
Earlier this year, Anderson was named chief operating officer for McDonald's USA. Prior to that, she led the company's Global Business Services segment, which was created with the aim of making its corporate operations more efficient and using the restaurant giant's scale. She also spent four years in charge of McDonald's U.S. West Zone; in that role, she increased average restaurant unit cash flow by $100,000 and drove same-store sales growth of more than 30%, according to the company.
Anderson has been with the company for 26 years.
"I've had the opportunity to work closely with Skye throughout much of her career, and I've repeatedly turned to her to lead some of our most important businesses and transformation efforts because she's a proven change agent who can act with urgency to mobilize our System," Kempczinski said.
Anderson succeeds Joe Erlinger, who has held the role for more than six years. Erlinger will stay on as an advisor through early 2027.
McDonald's also reported its second-quarter results on Tuesday. The company's earnings topped Wall Street's estimates, but its revenue fell short of analysts' expectations. U.S. same-store sales grew just 0.8%, and traffic to its domestic restaurants fell during the quarter.
Broadly, McDonald's has outperformed U.S. rivals by leaning into value meals and buzzy promotions to attract diners. But a successful marketing move — like its tie-in meal with the "Minecraft" movie during the year-ago period — means that the burger chain has to keep surpassing its own wins to grow same-store sales.
In early June, the company unveiled a new growth strategy as it aims to become diners' first option. The plan includes menu innovation that elevates taste and quality, listening to how consumers interact with brands and a new restaurant design.
McDonald's ve druhém čtvrtletí zvýšil čistý zisk o pět procent a pokračoval v růstu celkových tržeb, výsledky však zastínilo zpomalení na klíčovém americkém trhu. Tržby restaurací otevřených déle než rok v USA rostly podstatně pomaleji než před rokem a zaostaly za očekáváním analytiků. Slabší výkon podle firmy odráží opatrnější chování spotřebitelů, kteří kvůli ekonomické nejistotě a vyšším nákladům omezují výdaje za stravování mimo domov.
Americký řetězec restaurací rychlého občerstvení McDonald's ve druhém čtvrtletí zvýšil čistý zisk meziročně o pět procent na 2,36 miliardy dolarů (téměř 50 miliard Kč). Oznámila to dnes firma. Představila rovněž změnu ve vedení aktivit ve Spojených státech, kde zaznamenala zpomalení růstu tržeb.
Konsolidované tržby společnosti ve druhém čtvrtletí vzrostly o zhruba čtyři procenta na 7,1 miliardy dolarů z 6,8 miliardy před rokem. Tržby restaurací v USA otevřených nejméně rok se zvýšily pouze o 0,8 procenta. Jejich růst tak výrazně zpomalil z 2,5 procenta před rokem a zaostal za očekáváním analytiků.
Firma dnes oznámila, že novou šéfkou aktivit v USA se stane Skye Andersonová, která tak nahradí Joea Erlingera. Spojené státy jsou největším trhem společnosti. Američtí zákazníci se však v poslední době kvůli obavám ohledně vývoje ekonomiky snaží omezovat výdaje na stravování v restauracích, napsala agentura Reuters.
Společnost McDonald's již v květnu varovala, že vyšší ceny benzinu na čerpacích stanicích a obavy spotřebitelů související s konfliktem mezi USA a Íránem by mohly mít negativní dopad na její tržby.
Řetězec McDonald's působí rovněž v České republice, kde provozuje více než 140 restauraci. Předloni do restaurací McDonalds's v Česku zavítalo 53,5 milionu zákazníků.
Tagy: McDonald´s, výsledky, akcie, potravinářství
Reklama
Na tomto místě můžete zahájit diskusi. Zatím nebyl zadán žádný názor. Do diskuse mohou přispívat pouze přihlášení uživatelé (Přihlásit). Pokud nemáte účet, na který byste se mohli přihlásit, registrujte se zde.
Aktuální komentáře
04.08.2026 14:34McDonald's zvýšil zisk, Američané ale ztrácejí chuť utrácet 13:52Palantir zasadil medvědům těžkou ránu. Své tržby meziročně téměř zdvojnásobil 12:35Lufthansa zhoršila výhled a akcie prudce padají. Náklady na palivo začínají tvrdě dopadat na aerolinky 11:46Techy fungují, ropa moc nezlobí a výsledky trhům svědčí 10:50Evropské akcie těží z nečekaně silných výsledků. A je tu prostor pro ještě další růst 10:35CSG posiluje výrobu munice. V Německu investuje miliardy do strategických surovin pro evropskou obranu 9:10Rozbřesk: Komunikační revoluce Fedu začíná být nebezpečnou hrou s ohněm 8:53Palantir září díky AI, Lufthansa doplácí na drahá paliva a Evropu mezitím ochromuje historické sucho 6:01Zitron: Celé odvětví datových center je těžce závislé na OpenAI a ta zase na externím přísunu kapitálu 03.08.2026 22:00Americké trhy se vrací do optimistické nálady 17:13Od SSSR přes Brazílii, Japonsko po Čínu. Nebo i USA? 15:54PODCAST Týdenní výhled: V centru pozornosti AMD a Palantir 15:18Korejský výprodej slábne. Investoři AI akciím věří dál, problémem byla hlavně finanční páka 14:28TotalEnergies kupuje od Shellu evropské portfolio a navazuje na partnerství s EPH 12:09Warshovo „ticho“. Je ještě brzy říkat, že se trhům stýská po Powellovi? 11:02Český průmysl dál roste, tempo oživení však v létě zpomalilo 10:31Rozvíjející se trhy čelí zkoušce. AI, drahá ropa a vyšší sazby vytvářejí nebezpečnou kombinaci 9:29Šéf Fedu zvažuje revoluci v měnové politice. Počet zasedání by mohl klesnout 8:50Rozbřesk: Nabitý týden v Česku. Makro data v čele s inflací a zasedání ČNB 8:49ČEZ zahajuje výplatu dividend, trhy sázejí na uklidnění situace s Íránem a Fed zvažuje změnu fungování
Reklama
As of this writing, McDonald's (MCD +0.82%) stock sits at $270.64. The 52-week high is $341.75, so shares have given up about 21% -- and they now sit just 4% from the bottom of their yearly range. That's an unusual place to find one of the steadiest large businesses in the world, and to me, it's worth a look. At the current price, the stock offers a dividend yield of about 2.7%, and shares cost about 22 times earnings.
A decline like that usually means something went wrong. So, did the business change, or did just the price? The company's last four quarterly reports point one way.
Image source: Getty Images.
The business the stock left behind McDonald's has now posted positive global comparable sales (growth at restaurants open more than a year, the industry's cleanest measure of underlying demand) in each of its last four reported quarters. The streak runs 3.8% in the second quarter of 2025, 3.6% in the third, 5.7% in the fourth, and 3.8% in the first quarter of 2026. The fourth quarter also came with positive guest counts globally, meaning more transactions, not just higher checks.
The U.S. business, which investors have fretted over as lower-income consumers pull back, grew comparable sales 6.8% in the fourth quarter and 3.9% in the first quarter of 2026. The international side kept pace. International operated markets grew comparable sales 3.9% in the first quarter, and the developmental licensed markets, where local partners run the restaurants, grew 3.4%.
Profits followed. First-quarter revenue rose 9% year over year to about $6.5 billion, and operating income climbed 12% to nearly $3 billion -- a 45% operating margin. Earnings per share came in at $2.78, up 7%.
The full year of 2025 told the same story. Revenue rose 4% to $26.9 billion, operating income rose 6%, and earnings per share climbed 5% to $11.95.
That operating margin is the heart of the investment case. Most of McDonald's revenue doesn't come from selling burgers. Of that $26.9 billion in revenue, $16.5 billion came from its franchised restaurants -- rent and royalties collected from operators who put up their own capital and carry the restaurant-level costs.
That structure is why operating margins can sit in the mid-40% range and why profits could hold up through a consumer soft patch.
The loyalty program adds another layer of durability. Members generated over $9 billion in systemwide sales in the first quarter alone, across 70 markets, and loyalty sales for the trailing 12 months topped $38 billion.
Today's Change
(
0.82
%) $
2.20
Current Price
$
270.64
What the price pays for now At $270.64, McDonald's costs about 22 times earnings, based on earnings per share of $12.13 over the past 12 months. When the stock traded at its high of $341.75, those same earnings would have cost about 28 times. And trailing earnings were lower back then, so investors were actually paying more than that. Earnings per share went up over the past year. Only the price went down.
Put another way, the entire 21% decline came from investors paying less per dollar of McDonald's earnings, not from McDonald's earning less. The company's market value has dropped by about $50 billion, to about $191 billion, while the business behind it kept growing.
The dividend helps, too. At $7.44 per share annually, the payout yields about 2.7% at the current price, the direct result of a falling price meeting a steady dividend.
Of course, the picture isn't spotless. Comparable sales growth decelerated from the fourth quarter's 5.7% to 3.8% in the first quarter, and more than half of the first quarter's reported revenue growth came from currency moves rather than underlying demand: On a constant-currency basis, revenue grew 4%, not 9%. If U.S. traffic weakens from here, the comparable sales streak could get tested. And a price-to-earnings ratio of 22 isn't cheap, either. It's a reasonable price for a business of this quality, not a deep discount.
For me, that adds up to a buy. Nobody should buy McDonald's expecting a growth stock. But a business growing comparable sales every quarter, earning mid-40% operating margins on a largely franchised model, and yielding 2.7% is the kind of thing I'd rather own closer to its 52-week low than its high. I'd watch guest counts and U.S. comparable sales from here, since those would show cracks first. But I think the price finally fits the business.
McDonald’s čeká na výsledky za 2. čtvrtletí a trh sleduje hlavně hodnotové nabídky, inovace v nabídce menu a silné mezinárodní tržby. Firma má ale záporné Earnings ESP ve výši -0,52 %.
Key Takeaways McDonald's is expected to benefit from value offerings, menu innovation and promotional campaigns.MCD may see support from strong international sales, digital engagement and franchised operations.McDonald's carries a negative Earnings ESP ahead of its second-quarter earnings report. McDonald's Corporation (MCD - Free Report) is scheduled to report second-quarter 2026 results on Aug. 4.
MCD’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters and missed once, with the average surprise being 0.7%.
Trend in the Estimate Revision of MCDThe Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter earnings per share (EPS) is pegged at $3.32, indicating a rise of 4.1% from $3.19 reported in the year-ago quarter.
For revenues, the consensus mark is pegged at $7.14 billion. The estimate suggests a rise of 4.3% from the year-ago quarter’s figure.
Factors Likely to Shape MCD’s Quarterly ResultsMcDonald's second-quarter 2026 revenues are likely to have benefited from the company's continued emphasis on value, which remained central to its growth strategy. The revamped McValue platform, featuring an everyday menu with items priced below $3 alongside affordable meal deals across multiple dayparts, is expected to have strengthened customer traffic, particularly among budget-conscious consumers. Management indicated that the enhanced value proposition was performing in line with expectations and was helping preserve market share despite a challenging consumer environment.
The company's marketing initiatives are also likely to have supported the top line. While April faced difficult comparisons against last year's successful Minecraft promotion, McDonald's entered the remainder of the quarter with a strong promotional calendar. Partnerships such as the Netflix-themed KPop Demon Hunters campaign and preparations for the FIFA-related activation are expected to have kept customer engagement high. These culturally relevant campaigns, combined with continued digital activation through the McDonald's app, likely helped sustain traffic across key markets.
Menu innovation may have been another important growth driver during the quarter. The nationwide rollout of McCafe beverages, including Refreshers and crafted sodas in the United States, alongside successful beverage platform launches in Germany and Canada, likely generated incremental demand. In addition, limited-time offerings across the beef and chicken categories, including the Big Arch burger and Hot Honey campaign, are expected to have maintained momentum in core menu categories. International markets such as the U.K., Germany and Australia are also likely to have contributed through disciplined execution of value, marketing and menu innovation, supporting comparable sales and market share gains.
Our model predicts total U.S. and International Operated Markets sales to increase 1.5% and 8.1% to $2.73 billion and $3.68 billion, year over year, respectively.
McDonald's bottom line in the second quarter is likely to have been supported by solid sales leverage, the resilience of its predominantly franchised business model and disciplined cost management. Management highlighted that restaurant margins remained strong, while supply-chain partnerships and hedging programs are expected to have cushioned against inflation in food, paper and energy costs. In addition, lower-than-anticipated financial support for the Extra Value Meals program, continued full-margin promotional offerings and favorable foreign currency translation are expected to have provided additional support to earnings during the quarter.
What Our Model Unveils About MCDOur proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for McDonald’s this time. A stock needs to have a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) to beat earnings. However, that is not the case here.
Earnings ESP for MCD: McDonald’s has an Earnings ESP of -0.52%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
McDonald’s Zacks Rank: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).
Stocks Poised to Beat on EarningsHere are a few stocks from the Zacks Retail-Wholesale sector, which, according to our model, have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this reporting cycle.
CAVA Group, Inc. (CAVA - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +20.30% and a Zacks Rank of 3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
In the to-be-reported quarter, CAVA’s earnings are expected to increase 6.3% year over year. CAVA’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters and missed on one occasion, with the average surprise being 16.6%.
Brinker International, Inc. (EAT - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.21% and a Zacks Rank of 3.
In the to-be-reported quarter, Brinker earnings are expected to register a 23.3% year-over-year decline. EAT’s earnings surpassed estimates in all of the trailing four quarters, with the average surprise being 6.8%.
Sweetgreen, Inc. (SG - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +11.54% and a Zacks Rank of 2 at present.
In the to-be-reported quarter, Sweetgreen’s earnings are expected to register a 35% year-over-year increase. Sweetgreen’s earnings missed estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, with the average miss being 42.4%.
Investors aren't lovin' it. McDonald's (MCD -1.13%) is slated to hit the earnings drive-thru on Tuesday, Aug. 4, and ahead of that report, the fast food stock is slumping.
As of July 29, shares of the burger chain are off 9.6% year to date, a showing that's more than 400 basis points worse than that of the broader consumer discretionary sector. McDonald's is also laboring 20.4% below its 52-week high.
McDonald's has a dependable dividend, but a lot needs to go right for the stock to rebound. Image source: Getty Images.
For those mulling the stock as an earnings play, Wall Street expects McDonald's to report earnings per share of $3.32 on sales of $7.3 billion compared with year-earlier earnings of $3.19 and revenue of $6.8 billion. With inflation weighing on some of the Big Mac's core customers, the earnings report likely needs to be exceptional to spark a rally, but patient investors may find comfort in the dividend.
$10,000 in McDonald's stock equals decent income So, how much does $10,000 worth of this consumer discretionary stock generate in yearly income? Here's the math.
At a share price of $272, a $10,000 stake in McDonald's yields nearly 37 shares. The annual dividend on this stock is currently $7.35 per share, so 37 shares equal $271.95 in annual payouts. That's decent. It's actually pretty good for investors who don't need that income right now and can leverage the benefit of time by consistently reinvesting McDonald's dividends, allowing them to compound into a larger share position over the long term.
On the other hand, $272 a year in dividends isn't life-changing money, particularly for retirees facing inflationary pressures and high healthcare and long-term care costs. That underscores the point that investors should be diversified and not depend on a single stock, McDonald's or otherwise, for equity income.
Today's Change
(
-1.13
%) $
-3.08
Current Price
$
268.44
Putting McDonald's dividend into a direct Golden Arches context, Big Mac prices ranged from $4.67 to $6.72 about a year ago across the U.S. Call the average $5.70, and that means McDonald's dividend currently pays for 47.7 Big Macs -- and, no, these restaurants aren't serving partial burgers.
Good dividend news For investors who aren't overly impressed with McDonald's dividend, don't fret, because there's still something to see here. The fast-food giant is a committed dividend grower, as evidenced by a 5% increase last October.
That marked the 49th consecutive year the company raised its payout. Should it repeat that feat this year, and it likely will, that would make McDonald's a Dividend King, or one of the companies with 50 consecutive years of higher dividends.
Dividend growth is a safe bet with this stock because the company generated $2.4 billion in operating cash flow in the first quarter, easily surpassing capital spending of $1.7 billion. Additionally, McDonald's is a dedicated buyer of its own shares, thus shrinking its share count while making its dividend obligations more manageable.
McDonald's za čtvrtletí očekává EPS 3,32 USD a výnosy 7,14 miliardy USD, oba ukazatele by měly meziročně vzrůst. Zacks ale varuje, že firma nevypadá jako přesvědčivý kandidát na překonání odhadů.
The market expects McDonald's (MCD - Free Report) to deliver a year-over-year increase in earnings on higher revenues when it reports results for the quarter ended June 2026. This widely-known consensus outlook is important in assessing the company's earnings picture, but a powerful factor that might influence its near-term stock price is how the actual results compare to these estimates.
The stock might move higher if these key numbers top expectations in the upcoming earnings report, which is expected to be released on August 4. On the other hand, if they miss, the stock may move lower.
While management's discussion of business conditions on the earnings call will mostly determine the sustainability of the immediate price change and future earnings expectations, it's worth having a handicapping insight into the odds of a positive EPS surprise.
Zacks Consensus EstimateThis world's biggest hamburger chain is expected to post quarterly earnings of $3.32 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of +4.1%.
Revenues are expected to be $7.14 billion, up 4.3% from the year-ago quarter.
Estimate Revisions TrendThe consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised 0.53% lower over the last 30 days to the current level. This is essentially a reflection of how the covering analysts have collectively reassessed their initial estimates over this period.
Investors should keep in mind that an aggregate change may not always reflect the direction of estimate revisions by each of the covering analysts.
Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
Earnings WhisperEstimate revisions ahead of a company's earnings release offer clues to the business conditions for the period whose results are coming out. This insight is at the core of our proprietary surprise prediction model -- the Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction).
The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter; the Most Accurate Estimate is a more recent version of the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate. The idea here is that analysts revising their estimates right before an earnings release have the latest information, which could potentially be more accurate than what they and others contributing to the consensus had predicted earlier.
Thus, a positive or negative Earnings ESP reading theoretically indicates the likely deviation of the actual earnings from the consensus estimate. However, the model's predictive power is significant for positive ESP readings only.
A positive Earnings ESP is a strong predictor of an earnings beat, particularly when combined with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold). Our research shows that stocks with this combination produce a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time, and a solid Zacks Rank actually increases the predictive power of Earnings ESP.
Please note that a negative Earnings ESP reading is not indicative of an earnings miss. Our research shows that it is difficult to predict an earnings beat with any degree of confidence for stocks with negative Earnings ESP readings and/or Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) or 5 (Strong Sell).
How Have the Numbers Shaped Up for McDonald's?For McDonald's, the Most Accurate Estimate is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, suggesting that analysts have recently become bearish on the company's earnings prospects. This has resulted in an Earnings ESP of -0.52%.
On the other hand, the stock currently carries a Zacks Rank of #4.
So, this combination makes it difficult to conclusively predict that McDonald's will beat the consensus EPS estimate.
Does Earnings Surprise History Hold Any Clue?Analysts often consider to what extent a company has been able to match consensus estimates in the past while calculating their estimates for its future earnings. So, it's worth taking a look at the surprise history for gauging its influence on the upcoming number.
For the last reported quarter, it was expected that McDonald's would post earnings of $2.74 per share when it actually produced earnings of $2.83, delivering a surprise of +3.28%.
Over the last four quarters, the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates three times.
Bottom LineAn earnings beat or miss may not be the sole basis for a stock moving higher or lower. Many stocks end up losing ground despite an earnings beat due to other factors that disappoint investors. Similarly, unforeseen catalysts help a number of stocks gain despite an earnings miss.
That said, betting on stocks that are expected to beat earnings expectations does increase the odds of success. This is why it's worth checking a company's Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank ahead of its quarterly release. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.
McDonald's doesn't appear a compelling earnings-beat candidate. However, investors should pay attention to other factors too for betting on this stock or staying away from it ahead of its earnings release.
Expected Results of an Industry PlayerAnother stock from the Zacks Retail - Restaurants industry, Yum Brands (YUM - Free Report) , is soon expected to post earnings of $1.59 per share for the quarter ended June 2026. This estimate indicates a year-over-year change of +10.4%. Revenues for the quarter are expected to be $2.18 billion, up 12.8% from the year-ago quarter.
The consensus EPS estimate for Yum has been revised 0.6% higher over the last 30 days to the current level. However, a lower Most Accurate Estimate has resulted in an Earnings ESP of -0.63%.
When combined with a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold), this Earnings ESP makes it difficult to conclusively predict that Yum will beat the consensus EPS estimate. Over the last four quarters, the company surpassed consensus EPS estimates two times.
Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.
Resources Investor Relations Journalists Agencies Client Login Send a Release News Products Contact , /PRNewswire/ -- Today, McDonald's Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $1.86 per share of common stock payable on September 16, 2026 to shareholders of record at the close of business on September 1, 2026.
Upcoming Communications
For important news and information regarding McDonald's, including the timing of future investor conferences and earnings calls, visit the Investor Relations section of the Company's Internet home page at www.investor.mcdonalds.com. McDonald's uses this website as a primary channel for disclosing key information to its investors, some of which may contain material and previously non-public information.
About McDonald's
McDonald's is the world's leading global foodservice retailer with over 45,000 locations in over 100 countries. Approximately 95% of McDonald's restaurants worldwide are owned and operated by independent local business owners.
Forward-Looking Statements
This document contains certain forward-looking statements, which reflect management's expectations regarding future events and operating performance and speak only as of the date hereof. These forward-looking statements involve a number of risks and uncertainties. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from expectations are detailed in the Company's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including the Company's Form 10-Q filing for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. The Company undertakes no obligation to update such forward-looking statements, except as may otherwise be required by law.
McDonald’s zvýšil čtvrtletní dividendu na 1,86 USD na akcii a již více než 25 let v řadě zvyšuje výplatu. Tržby za 1. čtvrtletí fiskálního roku 2026 vzrostly na 6,52 miliardy USD a EPS překonal odhady.
Dividend growers build generational wealth. That is the entire premise behind a “buy and hold forever” portfolio: Own companies whose competitive moats let them pay you more every single year, regardless of what the macro backdrop looks like. In July 2026, three names still fit that description as cleanly as they did a decade ago, though each is trading through very different setups right now.
Here is the case for three stocks as long-duration dividend compounders, along with the risk each carries into the second half of 2026.
McDonald’s (NYSE: MCD) McDonald’s (NYSE:MCD | MCD Price Prediction) is the classic forever-hold: a global brand moat, franchise-heavy cash flows, and a dividend streak that keeps stretching. The most recent hike lifted the quarterly payout to $1.86 per share, and the company has now delivered 25+ consecutive years of dividend increases, putting it squarely in Dividend King territory. The yield sits at 2.59%.
The bull case rests on cash generation and unit growth. Q1 FY2026 revenue came in at $6.52 billion, up 9.4% year over year, with EPS of $2.83 beating expectations. Global comps rose 3.8%, and loyalty members drove more than $9.00 billion in systemwide sales in the quarter alone. CEO Chris Kempczinski put it plainly: “McDonald’s delivered this quarter. Our 6% global Systemwide sales growth shows how we executed with discipline.” Management is guiding to roughly 2,600 new restaurant openings and operating margin in the mid-to-high 40% range for FY2026.
Shares are down around 12% year to date and 9.75% over the past year, sitting well below the analyst target of $329.84. That underperformance is the entry point for long-term holders.
The risk: ongoing inflationary cost pressure on U.S. margins, higher interest expense, and restructuring charges expected to run through 2027. The dividend is safe. Near-term earnings growth is the question.
Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG) P&G (NYSE:PG) is the definitional Dividend King. The company just extended its streak to a 70th consecutive annual dividend increase and has paid an uninterrupted dividend for 136 consecutive years since 1890. The Q2 2026 payout was bumped to $1.0885 per share, up from $1.0568. Yield: 2.79%.
If you want a portfolio anchor that keeps paying through recessions, wars, and rate cycles, this is it. Q3 FY2026 delivered $21.235 billion in net sales, up 7.4% year-over-year, with core EPS of $1.59. It was the fourth consecutive quarter of beating both top and bottom-line estimates. Free cash flow reached $3.026 billion in the quarter. Every one of the five segments grew, with Beauty leading at 7% organic growth. Management plans to return roughly $10 billion in dividends and $5 billion in buybacks this fiscal year.
Act now: the analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks — and Visa didn't make the cut. Grab the names FREE today.
CEO Shailesh Jejurikar summed up the setup: “We delivered a solid acceleration in top-line results in our fiscal third quarter, with broad-based growth across product categories and regions.” P&G fits neatly into a broader Dividend King framework that income-focused investors are studying more closely this year (our 10 Dividend Kings to Buy Now report walks through the criteria).
The risk: tariffs. Management flagged a ~$400 million after-tax tariff headwind for FY2026 plus a ~$150 million commodity drag, and results are now expected toward the lower end of the core EPS guide of $6.83 to $7.09.
Visa (NYSE: V) Visa (NYSE:V) is the growth-oriented dividend name in this trio. The current yield of 0.74% looks small, but that is the whole point: Visa reinvests aggressively while raising the payout at a double-digit clip. The October 2025 hike raised the quarterly dividend from $0.59 to $0.67, a 14% increase, extending an 18+ year streak of annual increases.
The moat is a near-duopoly network processing enormous volume. Q1 FY2026 net revenue hit $10.90 billion, up 14.6%, with non-GAAP EPS of $3.17. Data processing revenue, the highest-margin engine, grew 17% to $5.54 billion. Visa also repurchased roughly 11 million shares for $3.8 billion in the quarter, with $21.1 billion remaining on the authorization.
CEO Ryan McInerney credited “resilient consumer spending and a strong holiday season, as well as continued strength in value-added services and commercial and money movement solutions.” Shares are up 11% over the past month and 45% over the past five years, with analysts targeting $398.70.
The risk: the interchange MDL litigation is an ongoing GAAP overhang, with a $707 million provision in Q1 FY2026 alone. Global regulatory scrutiny of merchant fees is the multi-year variable to watch.
The Bottom Line These are three different flavors of the same idea. MCD offers a defensive Dividend King entering a rebuild year at a discount. PG offers the longest-running income streak in American business, with tariff pressure providing a rare re-entry point. Visa offers dividend growth funded by structural payment volume. The “forever” part is the ability to raise the payout every year for the next twenty.
Act now: the analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks — and Visa didn't make the cut. Grab the names FREE today.
Andra AP fonden raised its position in McDonald’s Corporation (NYSE:MCD – Free Report) by 995.1% during the 1st quarter, according to the company in its most recent Form 13F filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The firm owned 87,171 shares of the fast-food giant’s stock after buying an additional 79,211 shares during the quarter. Andra AP fonden’s holdings in McDonald’s were worth $27,092,000 at the end of the most recent reporting period.
A number of other institutional investors have also recently made changes to their positions in the company. Your Advocates Ltd. LLP bought a new position in shares of McDonald’s in the fourth quarter worth $27,000. Park Place Capital Corp boosted its stake in McDonald’s by 95.7% in the 4th quarter. Park Place Capital Corp now owns 92 shares of the fast-food giant’s stock worth $28,000 after purchasing an additional 45 shares during the period. IFC & Insurance Marketing Inc. bought a new position in McDonald’s in the 4th quarter worth about $29,000. Abound Financial LLC purchased a new position in McDonald’s during the 4th quarter valued at about $30,000. Finally, DecisionPoint Financial LLC grew its holdings in McDonald’s by 1,616.7% during the 4th quarter. DecisionPoint Financial LLC now owns 103 shares of the fast-food giant’s stock valued at $31,000 after buying an additional 97 shares in the last quarter. Hedge funds and other institutional investors own 70.29% of the company’s stock.
McDonald’s Price Performance MCD stock opened at $267.50 on Tuesday. The firm has a 50 day simple moving average of $276.94 and a two-hundred day simple moving average of $299.99. The stock has a market cap of $190.06 billion, a PE ratio of 22.05, a P/E/G ratio of 2.78 and a beta of 0.41. McDonald’s Corporation has a one year low of $264.09 and a one year high of $341.75.
McDonald’s (NYSE:MCD – Get Free Report) last released its earnings results on Thursday, May 7th. The fast-food giant reported $2.83 EPS for the quarter, beating analysts’ consensus estimates of $2.74 by $0.09. McDonald’s had a negative return on equity of 442.10% and a net margin of 31.62%.The business had revenue of $6.52 billion for the quarter, compared to analysts’ expectations of $6.47 billion. During the same quarter in the prior year, the firm earned $2.67 earnings per share. The firm’s revenue was up 9.4% on a year-over-year basis. On average, research analysts expect that McDonald’s Corporation will post 12.86 EPS for the current fiscal year.
McDonald’s Announces Dividend The company also recently announced a quarterly dividend, which was paid on Tuesday, June 16th. Investors of record on Tuesday, June 2nd were given a $1.86 dividend. The ex-dividend date was Tuesday, June 2nd. This represents a $7.44 dividend on an annualized basis and a yield of 2.8%. McDonald’s’s payout ratio is presently 61.34%.
Analysts Set New Price Targets A number of analysts recently weighed in on MCD shares. Weiss Ratings lowered shares of McDonald’s from a “hold (c+)” rating to a “hold (c)” rating in a report on Tuesday, June 23rd. Barclays reduced their price target on shares of McDonald’s from $380.00 to $350.00 and set an “overweight” rating for the company in a research report on Friday, May 8th. BTIG Research reaffirmed a “buy” rating and issued a $370.00 price target on shares of McDonald’s in a report on Thursday, May 7th. TD Cowen reiterated a “hold” rating on shares of McDonald’s in a research report on Friday, June 12th. Finally, Tigress Financial lifted their price objective on McDonald’s from $385.00 to $390.00 and gave the company a “buy” rating in a research note on Friday. Fifteen investment analysts have rated the stock with a Buy rating and twelve have given a Hold rating to the company’s stock. According to data from MarketBeat, the stock has a consensus rating of “Moderate Buy” and an average target price of $336.32.
Check Out Our Latest Research Report on McDonald’s
Insider Activity at McDonald’s In other news, insider Joseph M. Erlinger sold 5,252 shares of the stock in a transaction that occurred on Wednesday, June 10th. The stock was sold at an average price of $284.32, for a total transaction of $1,493,248.64. Following the completion of the sale, the insider owned 7,734 shares of the company’s stock, valued at approximately $2,198,930.88. This represents a 40.44% decrease in their ownership of the stock. The transaction was disclosed in a document filed with the SEC, which can be accessed through this hyperlink. Also, EVP Desiree Ralls-Morrison sold 2,763 shares of the firm’s stock in a transaction that occurred on Thursday, May 28th. The stock was sold at an average price of $278.36, for a total transaction of $769,108.68. Following the completion of the transaction, the executive vice president owned 6,268 shares in the company, valued at $1,744,760.48. This represents a 30.59% decrease in their position. The disclosure for this sale is available in the SEC filing. In the last ninety days, insiders sold 8,681 shares of company stock valued at $2,456,440. 0.26% of the stock is owned by insiders.
McDonald’s News Summary Here are the key news stories impacting McDonald’s this week:
Positive Sentiment: One Seeking Alpha article argues that McDonald’s recent sell-off is creating an opportunity for investors, signaling that the stock may be undervalued after its decline. McDonald’s Sell-Off Is Your Opportunity Positive Sentiment: Another article upgraded McDonald’s to Buy, saying its consistency deserves a higher valuation and pointing to accelerating top- and bottom-line growth as signs of a potential turnaround. McDonald’s: Consistency Deserves A Better Multiple (Rating Upgrade) Positive Sentiment: A separate bullish note said the stock is attractive after compression in earnings multiples and highlighted recent catalysts that could improve the business outlook. McDonald’s: Consistency Deserves A Better Multiple (Rating Upgrade) Positive Sentiment: Coverage from Zacks focused on generally optimistic Wall Street analyst sentiment, which can support shares when investors expect favorable estimates or ratings. Is McDonald’s (MCD) a Buy as Wall Street Analysts Look Optimistic? Neutral Sentiment: Several lifestyle and menu-focused stories highlighted product novelty, including a new Caesar sauce and a drink item resembling a Starbucks-style pink drink, but these appear more brand-interest driven than material near-term catalysts. Review: McDonald’s Caesar sauce is the tangy menu addition we didn’t know we needed Negative Sentiment: Some recent commentary remains cautious, with one piece saying McDonald’s stock “still not good enough,” reinforcing that not all investors are convinced the valuation or growth outlook has improved enough. McDonald’s: Still Not Good Enough Negative Sentiment: An article on MCD’s 2026 weakness noted the stock is down sharply this year and said investors are bracing for softer same-store sales ahead of the next earnings report, which can weigh on sentiment. McDonald’s (MCD) Stock Struggles Continue: What’s Behind the 2026 Decline? About McDonald’s (Free Report)
McDonald’s Corporation (NYSE: MCD) is a global quick-service restaurant company best known for its hamburgers, French fries and breakfast offerings. The company develops, operates and franchises a system of restaurants that sell a range of food and beverage items, including signature products such as the Big Mac, Quarter Pounder, Chicken McNuggets, McCafé coffee beverages and a variety of salads, desserts and seasonal menu items. McDonald’s serves customers through company-operated restaurants and franchised locations, and it supports sales via dine-in, drive-thru, digital ordering platforms and third-party delivery partnerships.
Founded in 1940 by brothers Richard and Maurice McDonald as a single San Bernardino, California restaurant, the business was transformed into a franchising model after Ray Kroc joined in the mid-1950s and led the brand’s national and international expansion.
Further Reading Five stocks we like better than McDonald’s The Ugliest Stocks in the Market Just Got a Very Expensive Vote of Confidence Is Domino’s Stock Serving Up a Buying Opportunity? A $1T Black Hole: SpaceX Eyes Pentagon AI to Break Free Why Gold Miners Could Be the Market’s Biggest Comeback Story Want to see what other hedge funds are holding MCD? Visit HoldingsChannel.com to get the latest 13F filings and insider trades for McDonald’s Corporation (NYSE:MCD – Free Report).
Receive News & Ratings for McDonald's Daily - Enter your email address below to receive a concise daily summary of the latest news and analysts' ratings for McDonald's and related companies with MarketBeat.com's FREE daily email newsletter.
« PREVIOUS HEADLINEAndra AP fonden Acquires 14,360 Shares of The Sherwin-Williams Company $SHW
NEXT HEADLINE »Andra AP fonden Raises Holdings in Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. $ALNY
McDonald’s Corporation (NYSE:MCD – Get Free Report) shares reached a new 52-week low during trading on Wednesday after Wells Fargo & Company lowered their price target on the stock from $320.00 to $300.00. Wells Fargo & Company currently has an overweight rating on the stock. McDonald’s traded as low as $264.09 and last traded at $264.8750, with a volume of 3660290 shares traded. The stock had previously closed at $268.94.
MCD has been the topic of a number of other reports. Rothschild & Co Redburn upgraded McDonald’s from a “sell” rating to a “neutral” rating and upped their price objective for the company from $260.00 to $306.00 in a research report on Thursday, April 23rd. Erste Group Bank cut McDonald’s from a “buy” rating to a “hold” rating in a report on Monday, April 27th. BTIG Research reissued a “buy” rating and set a $370.00 target price on shares of McDonald’s in a research report on Thursday, May 7th. Robert W. Baird set a $305.00 target price on McDonald’s in a research report on Thursday, May 7th. Finally, Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft set a $325.00 price target on McDonald’s in a report on Thursday, July 9th. Fifteen investment analysts have rated the stock with a Buy rating and thirteen have assigned a Hold rating to the stock. According to data from MarketBeat.com, the stock presently has a consensus rating of “Moderate Buy” and an average target price of $335.58.
Check Out Our Latest Stock Analysis on McDonald’s
Insider Transactions at McDonald’s In related news, EVP Desiree Ralls-Morrison sold 2,763 shares of the stock in a transaction dated Thursday, May 28th. The shares were sold at an average price of $278.36, for a total value of $769,108.68. Following the sale, the executive vice president directly owned 6,268 shares of the company’s stock, valued at $1,744,760.48. This represents a 30.59% decrease in their position. The transaction was disclosed in a document filed with the SEC, which is available through this hyperlink. Also, insider Joseph M. Erlinger sold 5,252 shares of the business’s stock in a transaction that occurred on Wednesday, June 10th. The shares were sold at an average price of $284.32, for a total value of $1,493,248.64. Following the transaction, the insider owned 7,734 shares of the company’s stock, valued at $2,198,930.88. This trade represents a 40.44% decrease in their position. The disclosure for this sale is available in the SEC filing. Insiders sold a total of 8,681 shares of company stock worth $2,456,440 over the last three months. 0.26% of the stock is currently owned by corporate insiders.
McDonald’s News Summary Here are the key news stories impacting McDonald’s this week:
Positive Sentiment: McDonald’s is rolling out new limited-time items, including Caesar sauce, new chicken offerings, and other menu tests, which could help boost customer interest and restaurant traffic. McDonald’s builds its new menu around a flavor it never sold Positive Sentiment: Analysts continue to view McDonald’s as a strong defensive restaurant name, with commentary pointing to customer engagement, value messaging, and marketing campaigns as potential supports for sales. Can McDonald’s Global Marketing Strategy Drive Customer Traffic? Positive Sentiment: One Wall Street note kept a Buy rating on MCD even while trimming its price target, suggesting analysts still see upside from current levels. Citigroup price target change Neutral Sentiment: McDonald’s is drawing extra attention from investors and traders, with recent coverage framing the stock as a valuation and defensive-name debate rather than a clear new catalyst. MCD at $268, Starbucks at $106: Buy, Sell or Hold? Negative Sentiment: Several articles focus on ongoing “McProblem” issues, including concerns that McDonald’s traffic and business momentum have not improved enough, which may be reinforcing investor worries about the core growth outlook. McDonald’s has a McProblem that’s not getting better Negative Sentiment: Another report says McDonald’s stock is near its lowest levels in almost two years, highlighting pressure from weaker sentiment and a more cautious view of the company’s growth. Why McDonald’s stock is at nearly 2-year lows Hedge Funds Weigh In On McDonald’s Several hedge funds have recently bought and sold shares of MCD. Norges Bank bought a new position in shares of McDonald’s in the fourth quarter worth about $2,890,438,000. Diamant Asset Management Inc. increased its stake in McDonald’s by 30,979.0% in the 1st quarter. Diamant Asset Management Inc. now owns 2,596,340 shares of the fast-food giant’s stock worth $806,917,000 after buying an additional 2,587,986 shares during the period. J. Stern & Co. LLP lifted its holdings in McDonald’s by 9,867.5% during the 4th quarter. J. Stern & Co. LLP now owns 2,541,008 shares of the fast-food giant’s stock valued at $776,608,000 after buying an additional 2,515,515 shares in the last quarter. Viking Global Investors LP lifted its holdings in McDonald’s by 171.7% during the 2nd quarter. Viking Global Investors LP now owns 3,125,432 shares of the fast-food giant’s stock valued at $913,157,000 after buying an additional 1,974,998 shares in the last quarter. Finally, Arrowstreet Capital Limited Partnership boosted its position in McDonald’s by 49.9% in the 4th quarter. Arrowstreet Capital Limited Partnership now owns 3,104,337 shares of the fast-food giant’s stock valued at $948,779,000 after buying an additional 1,033,041 shares during the period. Institutional investors own 70.29% of the company’s stock.
McDonald’s Trading Up 3.2% The company has a market capitalization of $194.24 billion, a PE ratio of 22.54, a PEG ratio of 2.75 and a beta of 0.41. The firm’s 50-day simple moving average is $277.23 and its 200-day simple moving average is $300.56.
McDonald’s (NYSE:MCD – Get Free Report) last issued its earnings results on Thursday, May 7th. The fast-food giant reported $2.83 EPS for the quarter, topping analysts’ consensus estimates of $2.74 by $0.09. McDonald’s had a net margin of 31.62% and a negative return on equity of 442.10%. The business had revenue of $6.52 billion for the quarter, compared to analyst estimates of $6.47 billion. During the same period last year, the company posted $2.67 earnings per share. The company’s quarterly revenue was up 9.4% compared to the same quarter last year. As a group, analysts anticipate that McDonald’s Corporation will post 12.9 EPS for the current year.
McDonald’s Announces Dividend The company also recently disclosed a quarterly dividend, which was paid on Tuesday, June 16th. Investors of record on Tuesday, June 2nd were paid a $1.86 dividend. The ex-dividend date of this dividend was Tuesday, June 2nd. This represents a $7.44 annualized dividend and a yield of 2.7%. McDonald’s’s dividend payout ratio is 61.34%.
McDonald’s Company Profile (Get Free Report)
McDonald’s Corporation (NYSE: MCD) is a global quick-service restaurant company best known for its hamburgers, French fries and breakfast offerings. The company develops, operates and franchises a system of restaurants that sell a range of food and beverage items, including signature products such as the Big Mac, Quarter Pounder, Chicken McNuggets, McCafé coffee beverages and a variety of salads, desserts and seasonal menu items. McDonald’s serves customers through company-operated restaurants and franchised locations, and it supports sales via dine-in, drive-thru, digital ordering platforms and third-party delivery partnerships.
Founded in 1940 by brothers Richard and Maurice McDonald as a single San Bernardino, California restaurant, the business was transformed into a franchising model after Ray Kroc joined in the mid-1950s and led the brand’s national and international expansion.
Further Reading Five stocks we like better than McDonald’s Why Abbott Laboratories Stock Is Suddenly Winning Back Wall Street Revving Up Returns: Big Banks Race Through the Rate Plateau Why Uber’s Biggest Deal Yet Could Unlock Its Next Growth Phase Why Microsoft Is Playing a Different AI Game Than Big Tech—and Cash Flow Is the Test Receive News & Ratings for McDonald's Daily - Enter your email address below to receive a concise daily summary of the latest news and analysts' ratings for McDonald's and related companies with MarketBeat.com's FREE daily email newsletter.
McDonald’s v 1. čtvrtletí 2026 podpořil globální marketing růst srovnatelných tržeb o 3,8 % a zisk podílu na trhu téměř ve všech 10 největších trzích. Tahaly ho lokální kampaně a partnerské akce se zábavními značkami.
Key Takeaways McDonald's used entertainment partnerships and local campaigns to support customer engagement worldwide.Global marketing helped deliver 3.8% comparable sales growth and market share gains in most top 10 markets.Australia paired value, marketing, menu innovation and beverages to drive sales growth and share gains. McDonald's Corporation (MCD - Free Report) has been reinforcing customer engagement through a global marketing strategy built around cultural relevance, entertainment partnerships and localized campaigns. While value and menu innovation remain central to the company's growth strategy, marketing has become an important tool for attracting new customers, strengthening brand engagement and supporting restaurant traffic across key markets.
During the first quarter of 2026, McDonald's combined globally recognized entertainment brands with locally relevant campaigns to reach customers across different age groups and occasions. Initiatives included the Friends collectibles campaign in several international markets, a Super Mario Happy Meal promotion and a Netflix KPop Demon Hunters partnership that integrated digital activation through the McDonald's app.
The company also expanded successful campaigns across multiple countries, allowing local ideas to reach a broader audience while maintaining brand consistency. In the first quarter of 2026, this marketing approach supported global comparable sales growth of 3.8%, 6% rise in constant-currency systemwide sales and market share gains in nearly all of the company's top 10 markets.
The strategy extends beyond short-term promotional activity. Marketing is designed to complement value offerings and menu innovation, creating multiple reasons for customers to visit restaurants. Australia demonstrated this approach by pairing value menus, marketing activations, menu innovation and beverage initiatives, contributing to mid to high-single-digit comparable sales growth and a third consecutive quarter of market share gains.
As consumer spending remains uneven across many markets, McDonald's broad marketing platform, supported by global scale and local execution, could remain an important factor in sustaining customer traffic and reinforcing its competitive position.
MCD’s Price Performance, Valuation & EstimatesShares of McDonald’s have dropped 11.7% in the past year compared with the industry’s decline of 8.3%. In the same time frame, other industry players like, Starbucks Corporation (SBUX - Free Report) has gained 12.8% and Dutch Bros Inc. (BROS - Free Report) has increased 0.6%.
MCD Stock’s One-Year Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
From a valuation standpoint, MCD trades at a forward price-to-sales (P/S) multiple of 6.43, above the industry’s average of 3.29. Then again, other industry players, such as Starbucks and Dutch Bros, have P/S ratios of 3.02 and 4.78, respectively.
MCD’s P/S Ratio (Forward 12-Month) vs. Industry
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MCD’s 2026 earnings per share has declined from $12.93 to $12.90 in the past seven days.
EPS Trend of MCD Stock
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The company is likely to report strong earnings, with projections indicating a 5.7% year-over-year increase in 2026. Conversely, industry players like Dutch Bros are likely to rise 22.4% in 2026 earnings. Starbucks is likely to witness growth of 12.7% year over year in fiscal 2026 earnings.
MCD’s Zacks RankMCD stock currently has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
McDonald’s je letos v minusu 9,1 % a obchoduje se téměř 20 % pod 52týdenním maximem. Firma sice získala zpět část zákazníků s nižšími příjmy, ale tlak na náklady a slabší marže v USA brzdí další růst.
Key Takeaways McDonald's shares are down 9.1% year to date and trade nearly 20% below their 52-week high.McValue helped win back some lower-income customers and lift market share across nearly all top markets.Cost inflation, falling lower-income traffic and weak U.S. restaurant margins may limit near-term upside. Shares of McDonald's Corporation (MCD - Free Report) have lost 9.1% year to date against the Zacks Retail - Restaurants industry's 3.5% rise. The stock closed at $274.60 on Friday, nearly 20% below its 52-week high of $341.75 (attained on March 2, 2026). Meanwhile, the S&P 500 has advanced 11.5% year to date, highlighting MCD’s sharp underperformance relative to the broader market.
The pullback has brought the stock’s valuation to a more moderate level, drawing attention to whether the current discount provides an attractive entry point.
McDonald’s retains several structural advantages, including global scale, strong brand recognition, a predominantly franchised business model and a substantial restaurant-development pipeline. However, continued pressure on lower-income consumers, elevated operating costs and weaker profitability at U.S. company-operated restaurants temper the near-term investment case.
MCD YTD Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
MCD Stock Trades at a DiscountMcDonald’s is trading at a forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio of 20.28, below the Zacks industry multiple of 23.01. This represents a discount of nearly 12% to the industry.
The lower multiple provides a more favorable valuation framework for investors seeking exposure to a globally scaled restaurant operator. However, the discount alone does not make MCD an outright buy. Consumer pressure, franchisee profitability and U.S. company-operated restaurant performance remain important considerations when assessing the stock.
MCD P/E Ratio (Forward 12-Month) vs. Industry
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The key question is whether McDonald’s value strategy, menu innovation and international expansion can support traffic and earnings growth despite pressure on restaurant-level economics. Let us examine the factors shaping the investment case.
McDonald’s Value Strategy Supports Its Competitive PositionValue and affordability remain central to McDonald’s customer strategy. In the United States, the company expanded the McValue platform to include an everyday affordable-price menu featuring individual items below $3 and a $4 breakfast meal. These offerings complement the existing $5 McChicken and $6 McDouble meal deals.
The platform combines entry-level prices with bundled meal options across dayparts. McDonald’s stated that an effective value architecture requires both components: individually priced items for budget-conscious consumers and meal bundles centered on core menu offerings. The company has applied a similar approach across most of its major international markets. The United Kingdom offers Meal Deal Plus, while Germany’s McSmart platform and Australia’s McSmart Meals and Loose Change menu provide locally tailored value options.
McDonald’s reported improved value and affordability perceptions following these initiatives. The company also indicated that its value platform helped recapture some lower-income customers and supported market-share gains across nearly all of its top 10 markets.
MCD’s Marketing and Beverage Push Drive Customer EngagementMcDonald’s is pairing its value platform with culturally relevant marketing and focused menu innovation. Campaigns tied to Friends, The Super Mario Galaxy Movie and KPop Demon Hunters demonstrate the company’s ability to develop promotions for different customer groups and scale selected concepts across its global system.
The FIFA World Cup provides another major marketing platform. McDonald’s has maintained a relationship with the tournament for more than three decades and has planned promotional activity across the United States, Canada and Mexico for the 2026 event.
Beverages are also becoming a more prominent part of the company’s menu strategy. McDonald’s has introduced refreshers and crafted sodas under the McCafe brand in the United States, while Germany and Canada have launched beverage platforms of their own. The company also plans to introduce additional flavors and Red Bull-infused energy drinks later in the year.
McDonald’s Restaurant Expansion Extends Its Growth RunwayRestaurant expansion remains a key component of McDonald’s long-term strategy. The company continues to target approximately 50,000 restaurants by the end of 2027. China is expected to account for a significant portion of development activity. McDonald’s remains on track to open approximately 1,000 restaurants in the market during 2026.
At the same time, the company is maintaining a returns-focused approach to capital deployment. McDonald’s is reassessing parts of its development pipeline as supply-chain disruption and higher construction costs affect project economics. The company has emphasized that development decisions will depend on expected returns for both McDonald’s and its franchisees rather than the pursuit of an absolute unit-growth target.
MCD’s Concerns: Lower-Income Traffic & Cost InflationThe lower valuation is not without cause. McDonald’s expects second-quarter comparable-sales growth in the United States and International Operated Markets to decelerate meaningfully from the first quarter. April comparable sales were slightly negative in both segments as the company lapped the highly successful Minecraft promotion from the prior year.
Consumer conditions also remain uncertain. Higher-income customers continue to spend at resilient levels, but visits from lower-income consumers are still declining. Elevated gasoline prices and broader inflationary pressure could further constrain discretionary spending among this group, despite McDonald’s improving value perception.
Profitability presents another concern. McDonald’s described its U.S. company-operated restaurant margins as unacceptable. The weakness was tied partly to additional labor investment and restrained menu pricing. The company is evaluating whether certain restaurants would generate stronger returns under franchisee ownership.
Franchisee profitability is also under pressure from beef inflation and other operating costs. McDonald’s expects low- to mid-single-digit food and paper inflation in the United States and mid-single-digit inflation across International Operated Markets. Although hedging and supplier relationships should help the company manage 2026 pressures, cost inflation could intensify toward the end of 2026 and into 2027.
MCD's Competitive Landscape Remains IntenseMcDonald’s operates in a competitive restaurant market, with peers investing in value, menu innovation, loyalty and unit expansion. Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG - Free Report) is advancing restaurant execution, rewards engagement and menu innovation, while Starbucks Corporation (SBUX - Free Report) is strengthening service, beverage platforms and digital frequency through its Back to Starbucks plan. Shake Shack Inc. (SHAK - Free Report) is also expanding its premium menu, technology capabilities and restaurant footprint.
McDonald’s global scale, franchise network and established value platform remain important advantages. Nonetheless, continued execution across McValue, beverages and chicken will likely be necessary to sustain traffic and market share as competitors increase investment across similar growth areas.
MCD Stock Valuation InsightsOver the past 60 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for MCD’s 2026 earnings per share (EPS) has declined 0.7%. During the same period, Starbucks’ estimate has increased 0.4%, while Shake Shack’s estimate has fallen 7.3%. The consensus estimate for Chipotle’s EPS has remained unchanged at $1.13 in the same time frame.
MCD’s Earnings Estimate Trend
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Is It Time to Buy MCD Stock?McDonald’s recent underperformance has brought its valuation below the industry average, but the discount does not signal a clear near-term earnings inflection. The company’s scale, brand strength, franchise-heavy model and value-led strategy continue to support market-share resilience and long-term stability, justifying a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) stance for existing investors. However, persistent pressure on lower-income traffic, elevated cost inflation, weaker U.S. company-operated restaurant margins and intense competition may constrain upside in the near term.
With valuation more attractive but operating visibility still limited, MCD’s risk-reward profile appears balanced at current levels. Long-term investors may remain invested, supported by the company’s durable business model and global development runway. Prospective investors may remain selective, given the balanced risk-reward profile and limited near-term earnings visibility.
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
McDonald’s vidí mistrovství světa FIFA 2026 jako šanci zvýšit zapojení zákazníků a návštěvnost restaurací. V USA, Kanadě a u Arcos Dorados chystá marketing spojený s turnajem během turnaje.
Key Takeaways McDonald's sees the 2026 FIFA World Cup as a chance to deepen engagement and lift restaurant traffic.McDonald's plans event-linked marketing across the U.S., Canada and Arcos Dorados during the tournament.McValue, McCafe and menu innovation may help convert World Cup attention into more restaurant visits. McDonald’s Corporation (MCD - Free Report) is navigating a challenging consumer backdrop from a position of strength. In the first quarter of 2026, global comparable sales increased 3.8%, while systemwide sales grew 6% in constant currency. The company also gained market share across nearly all of its top 10 markets, underscoring the effectiveness of its value-led strategy. As the FIFA World Cup unfolds across North America, McDonald's has an opportunity to build on that momentum by using one of the world's largest sporting events to deepen customer engagement and support restaurant traffic.
FIFA Supports McDonald's Customer Engagement StrategyMcDonald's has maintained a relationship with the FIFA World Cup for more than three decades, but the 2026 tournament carries added strategic significance as matches are being hosted across the United States, Canada and Mexico. Management stated that its U.S. and Canadian businesses, together with Arcos Dorados, have a robust marketing calendar tied to the event, reflecting the company's intent to capitalize on heightened consumer attention during the tournament.
The World Cup complements McDonald's broader growth strategy rather than serving as a standalone initiative. The company continues to pair compelling value with culturally relevant marketing and menu innovation to drive customer traffic. Its recently enhanced McValue platform, featuring under-$3 menu items and expanded meal deals, strengthens its affordability proposition, while the nationwide rollout of the new McCafe beverage platform broadens consumption occasions beyond traditional meal times. Together, these initiatives likely position McDonald's to translate event-driven consumer engagement into incremental restaurant visits.
However, weak consumer sentiment, elevated gas prices and continued pressure on lower-income customers remain concerns. Nevertheless, McDonald’s emphasis on disciplined execution and its enhanced McValue platform bodes well. If McDonald’s successfully integrates its FIFA activation with its value, marketing and menu strategies, the tournament could help reinforce customer engagement and support sales momentum through the remainder of 2026.
MCD’s Price Performance, Valuation & EstimatesShares of McDonald’s have dropped 2.8% in the past year compared with the industry’s fall of 4.3%. In the same time frame, other industry players, including Starbucks Corporation (SBUX - Free Report) , have gained 12%, while Dutch Bros Inc. (BROS - Free Report) lost 2.1%.
MCD Stock’s One-Year Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
From a valuation standpoint, MCD trades at a forward price-to-sales (P/S) multiple of 6.75, above the industry’s average of 3.38. Then again, other industry players, such as Starbucks and Dutch Bros, have P/S ratios of 2.98 and 4.88, respectively.
MCD’s P/S Ratio (Forward 12-Month) vs. Industry
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MCD’s 2026 earnings per share has declined from $13.07 to $12.93 in the past 60 days.
EPS Trend of MCD Stock
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The company is likely to report strong earnings, with projections indicating a 6% year-over-year increase in 2026. Conversely, industry players like Dutch Bros are likely to project a rise of 22.4% in 2026 earnings. Starbucks is likely to witness growth of 12.7% year over year in fiscal 2026 earnings.
MCD’s Zacks RankMCD stock currently has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
McDonald's ve čtvrtek vyskočil asi o 4 %, zatímco Nasdaq klesl o 0,8 %. Řetězec má 49 let po sobě rostoucí dividendu a čtvrtletní výplatu 1,86 USD na akcii.
On a day when investors sold their technology winners, they went shopping for shelter -- and found the golden arches. McDonald's (MCD +4.08%) jumped about 4% on Thursday while the Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.8%, marking one of the sharpest single-day gaps between the burger giant and the tech-heavy index this year.
One strong session doesn't settle much on its own. McDonald's shares are still down about 8% in 2026 as of this writing, and they sit nearly 18% below their 52-week high. But the rotation raises a fair question: If nervous money is hunting for defensive dividend payers, does this one deserve the bid?
Image source: Getty Images.
A reliable royalty stream The case for McDonald's as a defensive holding starts with what the company actually sells -- and it mostly isn't hamburgers. Of the 45,356 McDonald's restaurants at the end of 2025, about 95% were franchised. The company's income arrives largely as royalties and rent from those franchisees, payments that keep flowing even when a franchisee's own margins get squeezed.
The company's own accounts show how lopsided the economics are. In 2025, franchised locations generated $13.9 billion in margin dollars, against $1.4 billion from company-operated restaurants -- more than 90% of the restaurant margin pool, flowing from the fee-collecting side of the business.
That structure is why the stock attracts money in anxious markets. It's also why the dividend record runs so deep: McDonald's has raised its payout for 49 consecutive years, a streak dating to its first dividend in 1976.
The dividend stock's quarterly payout now stands at $1.86 per share, for a dividend yield of about 2.7% at the current price. If the pattern holds, this fall's increase would be the 50th in a row -- a milestone very few public companies ever reach.
Today's Change
(
4.08
%) $
10.99
Current Price
$
280.42
Lagging stock, steady business If the model is this durable, why has the stock lagged all year? Because steady isn't the same as exciting. In the first quarter, global comparable sales rose 3.8%, and earnings per share came in at $2.78 -- up 7%, though just 2% in constant currencies. Growth like that looks slow next to what technology stocks have been delivering, and the market priced it accordingly. U.S. comparable sales rose 3.9% in the quarter, and consolidated operating income grew 12%.
"Our 6% global Systemwide sales growth shows how we executed with discipline, proving that we can drive results even in a challenging environment," said CEO Chris Kempczinski in the company's first-quarter earnings release.
Under the surface, though, the quarter carried more momentum than the headline suggests. Global systemwide sales -- the sales of the whole restaurant network, franchised and company-owned alike -- grew 11%, to more than $34 billion. And the loyalty program has quietly become enormous, with members spending over $9 billion in the quarter across 70 markets.
Those loyalty numbers matter for the defensive case. A customer who orders through the app tends to come back, and tens of millions of them give McDonald's pricing and promotion levers that most restaurant chains can't match in a weak consumer economy. In a downturn, fast food also tends to catch customers trading down from pricier meals, which is part of why the stock attracts defensive buyers in the first place.
The risks are the quiet kind: a value war that squeezes franchisees, a consumer trade-down that even loyalty can't fully offset, and a payout that already consumes about 60% of earnings, which caps how fast the dividend can grow from here.
So, is the Dividend Juggernaut back? The better answer is that it never left -- the stock just spent six months out of style. Thursday's pop reflected the market's mood, not a change in the business, and moods reverse without warning.
What matters for buyers today is the price of that durability. At about $281 per share, McDonald's trades at about 23 times earnings -- a discount to where several defensive consumer names have been bid this year, for a royalty-style business with half a century of dividend growth behind it.
For income investors, I think that's a reasonable entry -- not because of one rotation-day pop, but because the yield is decent and sustainable, and the valuation doesn't require anything spectacular. As a dividend stock, McDonald's earns its place the boring way. I'd just buy it for the royalties, not the rally.
McDonald’s zvýšil čtvrtletní dividendu na 1,86 USD na akcii, i když franšízanti čelí tlaku inflace a slabší spotřebitelské nálady. Díky royalty modelu zůstává výplata dobře krytá hotovostí.
McDonald’s (NYSE:MCD | MCD Price Prediction) just paid its latest quarterly dividend of $1.86 per share on June 16, extending one of the most reliable income streams in the Dow. Yet the same company sending checks to shareholders is presiding over a franchisee system buckling under inflation, tariff disruption and the weakest consumer sentiment reading in years. Both stories are true, and the reason has everything to do with how McDonald’s actually makes money.
The Q1 2026 payment alone totaled roughly $1.3 billion, and the company has now raised its dividend at the corporate level even as operators in the field absorb the brunt of higher costs. This is the cleanest case study in corporate America of how an asset-light royalty model insulates the parent from the operating pain felt at the unit level.
The Dividend Itself: A Quiet 5% Raise Into a Tough Environment McDonald’s lifted its quarterly payout from $1.77 to $1.86 in Q4 2025, a roughly 5% bump declared in October 2025. That new rate has now carried through three consecutive quarters, and at the current share price of $267.18, the trailing yield sits at 3% on an annualized $7.26 per share.
For context, the dividend has climbed from 4 cents in 1999 to $1.86 in 2026. That is a Dividend Aristocrat track record built across recessions, commodity shocks, and three CEO transitions. The most recent raise landed despite a stock that has fallen 12% year to date and 6% over the past year.
Why the Dividend Keeps Rising: The Royalty Engine The franchise model is the entire answer. Roughly 90% of McDonald’s restaurant margin dollars come from franchised stores, and in Q1 2026 those franchised restaurants generated $4.007 billion in revenue, up 9% year over year. Corporate collects royalties and rent off the top, before the operator pays a single employee or buys a single case of beef.
The downstream math is striking:
FY2025 revenue: $26.885 billion FY2025 operating income: $12.393 billion FY2025 net income: $8.563 billion Operating margin: 46% Gross margin: 57% A 46% operating margin reflects a real-estate and royalty business. Cost of revenue in 2025 was just $11.45 billion against nearly $27 billion in top line, because the company is not paying franchisee labor or food costs. Those expenses sit on the operator’s P&L.
The Cash Flow Backing the Payout Dividend sustainability comes down to free cash flow, and on this metric McDonald’s has rarely looked stronger. Operating cash flow hit $10.551 billion in 2025, up 12% year over year, against capital expenditures of $3.365 billion. That leaves $7.186 billion in free cash flow to cover the $5.115 billion sent to dividend recipients last year.
The Q1 2026 snapshot confirms the trend held: operating cash flow of $2.412 billion, free cash flow of $1.730 billion, and a dividend distribution of $1.323 billion. Buybacks added another $393 million in the quarter, on top of $2.056 billion repurchased across 2025.
Act now: the analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks — and McDonald's didn't make the cut. Grab the names FREE today.
Where the Operator Pain Lives The franchisee struggle is structural. Three forces are squeezing unit-level economics at the same time:
Consumer sentiment collapse: The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index printed 44.8 in May 2026, down from 49.8 in April, and is now well below the 60-point recessionary threshold. The 12-month peak was 61.7 in July 2025. That deterioration directly hits low-income traffic, the demographic most exposed to value menus. Cost stack pressure: Management has flagged inflationary cost pressures, supply chain interruptions, and tariff/trade policy disruptions, along with restructuring charges from the “Accelerating the Organization” program running through 2027. Flat food-services wallet share: Food services PCE has only crept from $1,491.4 billion in May 2025 to $1,538.3 billion in May 2026, holding at roughly 10% of total services spending. The category is not expanding fast enough to lift all operators. Reddit picked up on the disconnect. In early June, r/wallstreetbets ran a sustained bearish cluster on MCD with sentiment scores of 22 to 28 and an activity score peaking at 73 on June 5, the highest in the dataset. By June 26, sentiment had stabilized to neutral in the 45 to 52 range, but the franchisee angle clearly hit a nerve with retail investors.
Corporate Results Say the Model Is Still Working For all the franchisee pressure, Q1 2026 corporate results were strong: EPS of $2.83 beat by 3%, revenue of $6.517 billion grew 9% year over year, and global comparable sales rose 4% with U.S. comps at 4%. The loyalty program is doing real work here, with systemwide sales to members exceeding $9 billion in Q1 2026 and trailing twelve-month loyalty sales topping $38 billion across 70 markets.
Prediction markets confirmed the operational momentum. Polymarket’s Q2 2026 earnings beat contract resolved YES at 99 cents on May 7, the third straight beat in a row for MCD on the platform.
The Dividend Scorecard Metric Value Read Yield 3% Above 10-year average P/E (Trailing) 22 Reasonable for quality Forward P/E 21 Modest growth priced in FCF Coverage $7.19 billion FCF vs. $5.12 billion dividends Comfortable Payout vs. Net Income $5.12B of $8.56B Healthy Beta 0.414 Defensive profile Dividend Aristocrat Streak Decades of consecutive annual increases Elite tier On the data above, this is an A-grade dividend payer. Coverage is wide, the growth streak is long, and the cash engine that feeds the payout is structurally separated from the unit-level pressure that dominates headlines.
What to Watch Next The real risk lives in the franchisee feedback loop. If sentiment stays sub-60 into the back half of 2026 and operators pull back on remodels, hiring, or new-build commitments, corporate’s 2026 plan for roughly 2,600 new restaurant openings and $3.7 to $3.9 billion in capex gets harder to execute. Management guided to an operating margin in the mid-to-high 40% range for the year, with free cash flow conversion in the low-to-mid 80% range. Those are the numbers that ultimately fund the next raise.
The next dividend declaration should land in late October 2026 based on prior cadence. Given the cash coverage and management’s stated capital return posture, another mid-single-digit raise is the base case. Franchisees may keep struggling. The dividend keeps rising. Both will remain true as long as the royalty model holds.
Act now: the analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks — and McDonald's didn't make the cut. Grab the names FREE today.
McDonald’s letos plánuje otevřít v Číně zhruba 1 000 restaurací, i když slabší spotřebitelské podmínky dál tlačí na krátkodobý růst tržeb. Ve 2. čtvrtletí firma čeká zpomalení srovnatelných tržeb kvůli volatilitě na Blízkém východě a v Asii.
Key Takeaways MCD plans to open about 1,000 restaurants in China this year despite softer consumer conditions.MCD's China market share held steady in Q1 as the company continued advancing its development agenda.MCD expects Q2 IDL comparable sales growth to slow amid Middle East and Asia market volatility. McDonald’s Corporation (MCD - Free Report) continues to position China as a long-term growth lever within its International Developmental Licensed (IDL) segment, even as near-term macroeconomic pressure remains a constraint. In the first quarter of 2026, IDL comparable sales increased 3.4%, driven by continued strength in Japan. While China remains challenged by softer consumer conditions, McDonald’s maintained market share and continued to advance its development agenda, with management reaffirming plans to open approximately 1,000 restaurants in the market this year.
The development commitment underscores management’s confidence in China’s long-term unit-growth potential. However, with macroeconomic pressure in China expected to persist, the benefit of new restaurant openings is more likely to support long-term system growth than provide an immediate offset to near-term IDL volatility.
The broader IDL outlook also remains uneven. McDonald’s expects second-quarter IDL comparable sales growth to decelerate from first-quarter levels, primarily due to volatility in the Middle East and some markets in Asia. Broader cost inflation and supply-chain uncertainty add another layer of pressure to the global operating backdrop.
Even so, McDonald’s retains several levers to defend segment performance. Its value focus, marketing scale and disciplined local execution should help support demand across international markets. China’s share stability points to sustained brand relevance despite weaker consumer conditions, while Japan’s continued strength provides a stabilizing factor for the segment.
Overall, China expansion is unlikely to fully offset near-term macro pressure across IDL markets. However, disciplined execution of the restaurant-opening plan, combined with continued share stability, could make China an important contributor to McDonald’s broader international growth strategy over time.
McDonald’s Competitive PositionYum! Brands, Inc. (YUM - Free Report) provides a relevant benchmark because it is also using franchise-led development and international scale to support growth in a volatile backdrop. In the first quarter of 2026, KFC opened 648 new stores, supported by a strong start in China and development across 45 countries. YUM also noted that the Middle East conflict has caused some uncertainty and short-term delays in select markets, but it does not expect a change to KFC’s development plans for the year.
Starbucks Corporation (SBUX - Free Report) offers another China comparison, as it is shifting toward a licensed structure while pursuing transaction-led recovery. In the second quarter of fiscal 2026, Starbucks China delivered positive comps, supported by transaction growth of more than 2%. The company also plans to expand its China footprint from more than 1,000 county-level cities today to more than 1,500 over the next three years.
Against this backdrop, McDonald’s positioning depends on whether China unit growth can translate into sustained share stability and stronger long-term IDL performance. Yum! Brands is leaning on franchisee strength and development momentum, while Starbucks is using local partnership and transaction-led growth to support China expansion. McDonald’s differentiation lies in its ability to pair disciplined China development with value, marketing scale and brand relevance.
SBUX’s Price Performance, Valuation & EstimatesShares of McDonald’s have declined 9.2% in the past year compared with the industry’s fall of 7.4%.
MCD’s One-Year Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
From a valuation standpoint, MCD trades at a forward price-to-sales (P/S) multiple of 6.43, above the industry’s average of 3.30.
MCD’s P/S Ratio (Forward 12-Month) vs. Industry
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MCD’s 2026 earnings per share (EPS) implies a year-over-year increase of 6%. The EPS estimates for 2026 have remained unchanged in the past 30 days.
EPS Trend of MCD Stock
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
MCD’s Zacks RankMCD stock currently has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
