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Are Markets Due For A Reckoning? The Signs Pointing To Market Defensiveness

S&P 500 Stock Rockets Late On Earnings As Google Boosts Capex Eli Lilly (LLY) said Thursday it will delay filing for Food and Drug Administration approval of its next-gen weight-loss drug, retatrutide, until the first quarter. The delay is a "VERY GOOD thing," Evercore ISI analyst Umer Raffat said in a report. It will give the obesity kingpin more time to complete a bigger Chemistry, Manufacturing and Controls package for the…

Copyright ©2026 Investor's Business Daily, LLC. All rights reserved. 87990cbe856818d5eddac44c7b1cdeb8

Novo Nordisk podal ve Spojených státech žalobu na svého hlavního konkurenta Eli Lilly. Dánská firma tvrdí, že reklamní kampaně propagující přípravky Zepbound a Mounjaro uvádějí spotřebitele v omyl tím, že prezentují neúplné a zastaralé údaje o účinnosti konkurenčních léků Wegovy a Ozempic od Novo Nordisku. Informoval o tom server CNBC.

Zastaralé klinické studie ohledně porovnání nejvyšších dávek léků Lilly s nižšími dávkami léků Novo „vedou k nevyhnutelnému závěru, že léky Lilly jsou lepší než léky od Novo, a to není přesné“, sdělil CNBC John Kuckelman, hlavní právní zástupce skupiny Novo, jež tvrdí, že takové srovnání neodráží současný stav trhu a dostupných klinických dat.

Novo Nordisk v žalobě požaduje, aby soud Eli Lilly zakázal další šíření sporných reklam a zároveň nařídil zveřejnění opravných sdělení. Kromě toho se firma domáhá finanční náhrady škody, jejíž výše zatím nebyla specifikována.

Dánská společnost prý zaslala svému konkurentovi formální výzvu k ukončení reklamních kampaní už v dubnu, avšak bez výsledku. Pokud Lilly reklamy nestáhne dobrovolně, chce Novo v následujících dnech usilovat také o předběžné opatření, které by jejich vysílání zastavilo ještě před konečným rozhodnutím soudu.

Dánské firmě vadí zejména to, že reklamy konkurenta nezohledňují nově schválenou vysokodávkovou variantu léku Wegovy, která byla uvedena na trh letos na jaře. Podle Novo právě tato verze přináší výsledky v redukci hmotnosti, které jsou mnohem bližší účinkům Zepbound od Lilly.

„Reklamní sdělení vedou spotřebitele k závěru, že přípravky Eli Lilly jsou jednoznačně účinnější než naše léky. Domníváme se, že takový závěr není podložen aktuálními důkazy,“ stojí v žalobě.

V té je konkrétně zmíněna televizní reklama, která přímo srovnává Zepbound a Wegovy. Ve spotu zaznívá, že pacienti užívající Zepbound ztrácejí v průměru přibližně 50 liber (22,7 kg) tělesné hmotnosti, zatímco u Wegovy to je zhruba 33 liber (15 kg). Tato čísla vycházejí z klinického srovnání nejvyšších dávek přípravku Zepbound s dávkami Wegovy 1,7 mg a 2,4 mg.

Podle Novo Nordisk však novější studie ukazují, že vyšší dávka Wegovy 7,2 mg vede v průměru k úbytku hmotnosti okolo 47 liber (21,3 kg), což se podle firmy pohybuje na srovnatelné úrovni s nejnovějšími výsledky dosahovanými přípravkem Zepbound.

Dánský výrobce zároveň tvrdí, že existence této vyšší dávky je v reklamních materiálech zmíněna pouze v obtížně čitelné poznámce pod čarou, která podle něj spotřebitelům neposkytuje dostatečné informace o aktuální účinnosti léčby, píše CNBC.

Přímá studie neexistuje

Dalším argumentem Novo Nordisku je skutečnost, že dosud nebyla provedena přímá klinická studie, která by porovnávala nejvyšší komerčně dostupné dávky Wegovy a Zepbound. Podle žaloby proto Eli Lilly nemá dostatečný základ pro kategorická tvrzení o nadřazenosti svého přípravku.

„I když to bylo možné říci předtím, než byl Wegovy dostupný i v dávce 7,2 miligramu, tak dnes už to není přesné. Myslíme si, že mají právní povinnost, ale ještě důležitější je, že mají povinnost vůči pacientům sdílet přesné informace,“ dodal Kuckelman.

Zdroj foto: Novo Nordisk

AtaiBeckley's lead program, BPL-003, is designed to provide durable relief from treatment-resistant depression

Acquisition expands Lilly's neuroscience pipeline to address some of the most challenging conditions in mental health

, /PRNewswire/ -- Eli Lilly and Company (NYSE: LLY) and AtaiBeckley Inc. (Nasdaq: ATAI), a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company developing innovative therapeutics for mental health conditions, today announced a definitive agreement for Lilly to acquire AtaiBeckley.

AtaiBeckley is advancing a pipeline of rapid-acting neuroplastogens, including multiple clinical-stage programs and a discovery pipeline of next-generation compounds. The lead asset, BPL-003 (mebufotenin benzoate), is a synthetic form of 5-MeO-DMT administered intranasally for treatment-resistant depression, which affects millions of people in the United States.

Emerging research indicates that treatment-resistant depression and other serious mental health conditions may involve a loss of synaptic plasticity, the brain's ability to form and strengthen connections in regions critical to mood regulation. AtaiBeckley's therapies are designed to restore synaptic connectivity and aim to promote the growth of new neural connections, offering a distinct mechanism from conventional antidepressants that primarily target neurotransmitter levels.

"Treatment-resistant depression persists even after multiple treatments have failed. Millions of people are still searching for relief and desperately need a therapy that works," said Carole Ho, executive vice president and president, Lilly Neuroscience. "Advancing AtaiBeckley's investigational therapies gives us a real chance to change that."

In a Phase 2b study, BPL-003 demonstrated rapid and durable reductions in depressive symptoms following an in-clinic visit lasting approximately two hours on average, with beneficial effects persisting for months. BPL-003 has been granted Breakthrough Therapy Designation by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration and has initiated Phase 3 activities. VLS-01, the second most advanced program of the pipeline, is a buccal film formulation of DMT advancing in an ongoing Phase 2b study.

"Across our portfolio, we're seeking to demonstrate that psychiatric illness is treatable at its biological root, not just its symptoms," said Srinivas Rao, co-founder and chief executive officer of AtaiBeckley. "Lilly's expertise and reach are expected to accelerate that work for people whose conditions have not responded to existing treatments."

"From Atai's founding, our mission has been to bring transformative mental health treatments to the patients who need them most. Joining Lilly gives this pipeline, and the patients waiting for it, the benefit of the resources and scale Lilly has to potentially advance therapies faster than we could alone. I am confident this transaction represents the best path forward for patients and shareholders," said Christian Angermayer, founder, largest shareholder, and chairman of the board, AtaiBeckley.

Under the terms of the agreement, Lilly will acquire all outstanding shares of AtaiBeckley common stock for $6.75 per share in cash upon closing; plus up to $2.50 per share in the form of a Contingent Value Right (CVR) entitling the holder to additional cash payments upon achievement of specified development and regulatory milestones related to the BPL-003 and VLS-01 programs as follows: (a) $1.00 per share upon initiation of a Phase 3 clinical trial of VLS-01 prior to the fourth anniversary of closing; (b) $0.50 per share upon U.S. regulatory approval and DEA rescheduling of BPL-003 prior to the fifth anniversary of closing; and (c) $1.00 per share upon U.S. regulatory approval and DEA rescheduling of VLS-01 prior to the seventh anniversary of closing. The upfront cash consideration represents an aggregate equity value of approximately $2.8 billion and the CVR represents an additional potential aggregate equity value of approximately $1.0 billion. There can be no assurance that any payments will be made with respect to the CVR.

The transaction is not subject to any financing condition and is expected to close in the third quarter, subject to approval by AtaiBeckley stockholders and satisfaction of other customary closing conditions, including regulatory approvals. The purchase price payable at closing represents a premium of approximately 40% to the 30-day volume-weighted average trading price of AtaiBeckley's common stock ended on July 15, 2026. The boards of directors of both companies have approved the transaction.

To demonstrate their commitment to the transaction, Apeiron Investment Group, Ltd and all directors and officers of AtaiBeckley have signed voting and support agreements pursuant to which each has agreed to vote to approve the transaction. The shares subject to the voting agreements represent a total of approximately 15% of AtaiBeckley's outstanding common stock.

Lilly will determine the accounting treatment of this transaction in accordance with Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) upon closing. This transaction will thereafter be reflected in Lilly's financial results and financial guidance.

Goldman Sachs is acting as exclusive financial advisor and Ropes & Gray is acting as legal counsel to Lilly. Moelis & Company LLC and Centerview Partners LLC are acting as financial advisors and Latham & Watkins is acting as legal counsel to AtaiBeckley. Citi also provided financial advice to the AtaiBeckley Board of Directors in the transaction.

About AtaiBeckley
AtaiBeckley is a clinical-stage biotechnology company on a mission to transform patient outcomes by developing rapid-acting, durable and convenient mental health treatments. AtaiBeckley's pipeline of novel therapies includes BPL-003 (mebufotenin benzoate nasal spray) for treatment-resistant depression (TRD), VLS-01 (DMT buccal film) for TRD and EMP-01 ((R)-MDMA HCI) for social anxiety disorder. BPL-003 was granted Breakthrough Therapy Designation from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration and has initiated Phase 3 activities; VLS-01 and EMP-01 are in Phase 2 clinical development. The Company is also advancing a drug discovery program to identify novel, non-hallucinogenic 5-HT2AR agonists. These programs aim to create breakthroughs in mental health through transformative interventional psychiatry therapies that can integrate seamlessly into healthcare systems.

About Lilly
Lilly is a medicine company turning science into healing to make life better for people around the world. We've been pioneering life-changing discoveries for 150 years, and today our medicines help tens of millions of people across the globe. Harnessing the power of biotechnology, chemistry and genetic medicine, our scientists are urgently advancing new discoveries to solve some of the world's most significant health challenges: redefining diabetes care; treating obesity and curtailing its most devastating long-term effects; advancing the fight against Alzheimer's disease; providing solutions to some of the most debilitating immune system disorders; and transforming the most difficult-to-treat cancers into manageable diseases. With each step toward a healthier world, we're motivated by one thing: making life better for millions more people. That includes delivering innovative clinical trials that reflect the diversity of our world and working to ensure our medicines are accessible and affordable. To learn more, visit Lilly.com and Lilly.com/news, or follow us on Facebook, Instagram, and LinkedIn. F-LLY

Trademarks and Trade Names
All trademarks or trade names referred to in this press release are the property of the company, or, to the extent trademarks or trade names belonging to other companies are references in this press release, the property of their respective owners. Solely for convenience, the trademarks and trade names in this press release are referred to without the ® and ™ symbols, but such references should not be construed as any indicator that the company or, to the extent applicable, their respective owners will not assert, to the fullest extent under applicable law, the company's or their rights thereto. We do not intend the use or display of other companies' trademarks and trade names to imply a relationship with, or endorsement or sponsorship of us by, any other companies.

No Offer or Solicitation
This communication is for informational purposes only and is not intended to and does not constitute, or form part of, an offer, invitation or the solicitation of an offer or invitation to purchase, otherwise acquire, subscribe for, sell or otherwise dispose of any securities, or the solicitation of any vote or approval in any jurisdiction, pursuant to the proposed transaction or otherwise, nor shall there be any sale, issuance or transfer of securities in any jurisdiction in contravention of applicable law.

Additional Information about the Acquisition and Where to Find It
AtaiBeckley plans to file a proxy statement (the "Proxy Statement") with the Securities and Exchange Commission (the "SEC") in connection with the solicitation of proxies to approve the agreement and plan of merger (the "Merger Agreement") relating to Lilly's proposed acquisition of AtaiBeckley (the "Merger"). Promptly after filing the definitive Proxy Statement with the SEC, AtaiBeckley will mail the definitive Proxy Statement and a proxy card to each stockholder entitled to vote at the special meeting to consider the adoption of the Merger Agreement. Stockholders are urged to read the proxy statement (including any amendments or supplements thereto) and any other relevant documents that AtaiBeckley will file with the SEC when they become available because they will contain important information. Stockholders may obtain, free of charge, the preliminary and definitive versions of the Proxy Statement, any amendments or supplements thereto, and any other relevant documents filed by AtaiBeckley with the SEC in connection with the Merger at the SEC's website (http://www.sec.gov). Copies of AtaiBeckley's definitive Proxy Statement, any amendments or supplements thereto, and any other relevant documents filed by AtaiBeckley with the SEC in connection with the Merger will also be available, free of charge, at AtaiBeckley's investor relations website (https://ir.ataibeckley.com), or by writing to AtaiBeckley Inc., Attention: Investor Relations, 250 West 34th Street, New York, NY 10119.

Participants in the Solicitation
Under SEC rules, AtaiBeckley and certain of its directors, executive officers and other members of management and employees may be deemed to be participants in the solicitation of proxies from stockholders in connection with the Merger. Information about the directors and executive officers of AtaiBeckley and their ownership of AtaiBeckley's common stock is set forth in the definitive proxy statement for AtaiBeckley's 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders (the "2026 Proxy Statement"), which was filed with the SEC on April 22, 2026, including the sections captioned "Director Compensation," "Executive Employment Agreements" and "Security Ownership of Certain Beneficial Owners and Management," or its Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2025, which was filed with the SEC on March 6, 2026, and in other documents filed by AtaiBeckley with the SEC. To the extent holdings of such participants in AtaiBeckley's securities have changed since the amounts described in the 2026 Proxy Statement, such changes have been reflected on Forms 3 or Forms 4 filed with the SEC by AtaiBeckley's directors and executive officers. These documents can be obtained free of charge from the sources indicated below. Additional information regarding the participants in the proxy solicitation and a description of their direct and indirect interests, by security holdings or otherwise, will be contained in the Proxy Statement and other relevant materials to be filed with the SEC in respect of the Merger when they become available.

Cautionary Statement Regarding Forward-Looking Statements
This communication contains forward-looking statements that involve substantial risks and uncertainties, including statements regarding: the Merger; the prospective benefits of the Merger; the parties' ability to satisfy the conditions to the consummation of the Merger and the expected timetable for the Merger; the anticipated occurrence, manner and timing of the closing of the Merger; potential milestone payment amounts and terms pursuant to the CVRs; AtaiBeckley's product candidates and ongoing clinical and preclinical development; Lilly's development of programs targeting treatment-resistant depression and mental health conditions; and the accounting treatment of the potential acquisition under GAAP and its potential impact on Lilly's financial results and financial guidance. All statements other than statements of historical facts are forward-looking statements. The words "anticipate," "believe," "continue," "could," "estimate," "expect," "intend," "may," "plan," "potential," "predict," "project," "should," "target," "will," "would" and similar expressions are intended to identify forward-looking statements, although not all forward-looking statements contain these identifying words. Any forward-looking statements are based on current beliefs and expectations, and are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially and adversely from those set forth in, or implied by, such forward-looking statements. These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to: the possibility that AtaiBeckley's shareholders may not approve the adoption of the Merger agreement; AtaiBeckley's receipt of any competing offers or acquisition proposals; a failure to (or delay in) receiving the required regulatory clearances for the Merger; a condition to closing of the Merger may not be satisfied (or waived); the ability of each party to consummate the Merger; the closing of the Merger might be delayed or not occur at all; the diversion of management time and attention from ongoing business operations and opportunities; the response of competitors to the Merger; the effect of the Merger and the public announcement of the Merger on AtaiBeckley's operations and its relationships with its suppliers, business partners, management and employees, including its ability to attract and retain key personnel; Lilly's ability to successfully integrate AtaiBeckley and execute on the continued development of AtaiBeckley's programs following the closing of the Merger; that all or any of the potential milestone payments pursuant to the CVRs will become payable on the terms described herein or at all; the outcome of any legal proceedings that could be instituted against the parties to the Merger; the risks inherent in drug research, development and commercialization; disruption in AtaiBeckley's plans and operations attributable to the Merger; changes in AtaiBeckley's business during the period between announcement and closing of the Merger; Lilly's evaluation of the accounting treatment of the potential acquisition and its potential impact on its financial results and financial guidance; the effects of the Merger (or the announcement thereof) on AtaiBeckley's stock price; relationships with key third parties or governmental entities; regulatory changes and developments; and the impact of global macroeconomic conditions, including trade and other global disputes and interruptions, including related to tariffs, trade protection measures, and similar restrictions. For further discussion of these and other risks and uncertainties, see Lilly's and AtaiBeckley's periodic reports filed with the SEC. There can be no assurance that the Merger will in fact be consummated. All forward-looking statements in this communication are based on information available to Lilly and AtaiBeckley as of the date of this communication. Lilly and AtaiBeckley each expressly disclaim any obligation to publicly update or revise the forward-looking statements, except as required by law.

SOURCE Eli Lilly and Company

Eli Lilly and Company (NYSE:LLY) shares are in the spotlight Monday as the company presents new data at the Alzheimer’s Association International Conference in London. Wall Street weighed in on the stock last week.

Eli Lilly stock is trading flat. What’s next for LLY stock? The AAIC PresentationEli Lilly is presenting 16 abstracts at the 2026 Alzheimer’s Association International Conference, running July 12-15 in London, with significant new data expected on its Alzheimer’s treatment Kisunla. The presentations could help clarify Kisunla’s competitive standing in a market where diagnosis bottlenecks, required scans, and monitoring requirements remain key hurdles to broader adoption.

Kisunla at a GlanceAnalyst Consensus & Recent Actions The stock carries a Buy rating with an average price target of $1293.73. Recent analyst moves include:

B of A Securities: Buy (Raises Target to $1334.00) (July 10) Truist Securities: Buy (Raises Target to $1370.00) (July 8) Morgan Stanley: Overweight (Raises Target to $1347.00) (July 8) Eli Lilly Shares Trade FlatLLY Price Action: At the time of publication, Eli Lilly shares are edging 0.01% higher at $1,188.75, according to data from Benzinga Pro.

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The Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSEARCA:XLV) is the default healthcare allocation for millions of investors, and for good reason. XLV owns the entire S&P 500 healthcare complex in one ticker: insurers, device makers, biotech, and Big Pharma. It has returned 21.61% over the past year and 159.84% over ten years. If the reason for holding XLV is simply broad sector exposure, it does that job well. The reason to look past it is narrower: investors who bought XLV specifically to participate in the GLP-1 obesity boom are getting a heavily diluted version of that trade, and a small thematic fund, the LeaderShares Dr. Bill Grace Global Obesity ETF (NYSEARCA:OZEM) offers a more direct route.

Why XLV Waters Down the Obesity Trade The GLP-1 franchise is concentrated in two companies: Eli Lilly (NYSE:LLY | LLY Price Prediction) and Novo Nordisk. Lilly’s Q1 2026 results underline the scale. Revenue reached $19.8 billion, up 55.5% year over year, with Mounjaro at $8.66 billion (+125%) and Zepbound at $4.16 billion (+80%). Non-GAAP EPS came in at $8.55. CEO David Ricks said, “2026 is off to a strong start, we delivered 56% revenue growth… raised full-year revenue guidance by $2 billion.” The FDA has since approved Foundayo (orforglipron), the first oral GLP-1 pill with no food or water restrictions.

Lilly’s stock reflects this: shares are up 54.8% over the past year and 433.36% over five years, with a market cap of roughly $1.07 trillion. Yet within XLV, Lilly is the largest single position, accounting for roughly 16% of the fund. While that provides significant exposure, the remaining 84% of the fund is spread across insurers, device makers, and legacy pharma. For investors whose core thesis is specifically the metabolic-disease franchise, the heavy allocation to non-obesity segments can dampen the impact of Lilly’s specific trajectory.”

What OZEM Actually Owns If you’re looking at the obesity and GLP-1 supply chain, OZEM is the fund that comes up most often. According to its March 31, 2026, NPORT filing, Lilly is its largest holding at 16.10% of net assets, with Novo Nordisk right behind at 13.13%. Put those two together, and the two drugmakers that dominate the category represent 29.23% of the fund. For context, that is a materially higher single-theme weighting than either name individually delivers in XLV.

The remainder is a mix of GLP-1 developers and adjacencies: Viking Therapeutics at 5.29%, Zealand Pharma at 3.60%, Structure Therapeutics at 2.38%, plus Chinese biotech exposure through Innovent, Ascletis, and CSPC. Broader pharma names such as Pfizer (7.56%) and Amgen (3.94%) round out the book. The fund also carried a 12.89% cash position at the March filing, which can dampen performance during rapid market rallies, though it provides the manager with the liquidity needed to navigate the extreme volatility typical of small-cap biotech stocks.

The Tradeoffs Are Real The swap involves real tradeoffs. OZEM returned 32.8% over the past year, better than XLV’s 21.61%, but well behind Lilly’s 54.8%. Novo Nordisk shares fell 25.53% over the same period, and that weighting, combined with the cash drag and small-cap biotech volatility, explains the gap. Year-to-date, OZEM is actually down 1.18% while XLV is up 5.51%.

Other considerations: OZEM’s total net assets sit at just $51.4 million, which means wider bid-ask spreads and closure risk if inflows stall. Thematic ETFs also carry higher expense ratios than sector SPDRs, and Lilly itself faces pricing pressure, with realized prices down and Mounjaro added to China’s national reimbursement list. A prospectus review is warranted before committing capital.

How to Think About the Swap PineBridge’s 2026 equity outlook notes that “In 2026, we will see the expansion of obesity treatments to the broader population as lower-cost, easier-to-administer oral pill versions of the current injectable GLP-1s are introduced to the market.” That backdrop supports thematic exposure, but the vehicle matters.

For an investor whose XLV position is designed to capture the obesity story, three paths are available. Owning Lilly directly has delivered the cleanest exposure by a wide margin. A partial OZEM sleeve alongside XLV preserves diversification while raising the weighting to GLP-1 developers globally. Keeping XLV as-is remains defensible for anyone who wants the whole sector rather than one theme within it. In a taxable account, trimming XLV to fund the switch would realize gains that should be weighed against the incremental exposure, since XLV itself already owns Lilly. The decision hinges on how narrow the reader wants the bet to be.

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

Key Takeaways Eli Lilly reached a record high as a higher analyst price target reinforced long-term growth expectations. LLY's Mounjaro and Zepbound posted strong prescription growth, while oral Foundayo expands beyond injectables.LLY may benefit from broader Medicare access as the GLP-1 Bridge program improves affordability. Eli Lilly (LLY - Free Report) shares climbed to another all-time high of $1,235.56, pushing the drugmaker's market capitalization to roughly $1.13 trillion. The rally gained further support after a J.P. Morgan analyst reportedly raised the target price for LLY from $1,300 to $1,400, implying roughly 13% upside from current levels despite the stock already trading at record highs. The revision reflects growing confidence that Lilly's leadership in obesity and diabetes treatments can continue driving earnings growth over the long term.

The bullish outlook is underpinned by Eli Lilly’s continued dominance in the rapidly expanding GLP-1 market. Lilly's blockbuster therapies Mounjaro and Zepbound [for type II diabetes (T2D) and obesity, respectively] continue to post strong prescription growth. Its newly approved oral obesity therapy, Foundayo (orforglipron), extends Lilly's obesity franchise beyond injectable treatments following its U.S. launch. The drug adds another long-term growth lever for the company, with additional global regulatory filings expected to further expand its commercial opportunity.

The investment thesis also reflects confidence that the obesity market remains significantly underpenetrated. Lilly is well-positioned to benefit as awareness rises, treatment adoption accelerates and reimbursement improves across major markets. The company has steadily expanded its presence internationally while continuing to gain U.S. market share, supporting the view that its growth runway remains far from exhausted.

A major near-term catalyst is the Medicare GLP-1 Bridge program, which became effective on July 1. The program allows eligible Medicare Part D beneficiaries to obtain Lilly's Zepbound and Foundayo for $50 per month through the end of 2027, substantially improving affordability for millions of eligible patients who previously had limited access to obesity medicines. While the program also covers competing GLP-1 therapies, it expands the overall addressable market by lowering one of the biggest barriers to treatment.

The reimbursement expansion, however, does not hand Lilly an exclusive advantage. Rival company Novo Nordisk's (NVO - Free Report) Wegovy injection and oral formulation for obesity are also available under the same Medicare program at the identical monthly copay. Instead of reimbursement determining market winners, competition is increasingly shifting toward product differentiation. Lilly arguably enters this phase from a position of strength. Zepbound has demonstrated superior weight-loss efficacy versus Wegovy in head-to-head studies. At the same time, Foundayo offers a simpler once-daily oral dosing regimen without food or drink restrictions, potentially improving patient convenience and adherence.

After an exceptional rally, valuation naturally becomes a big consideration for investors. Yet, premium valuations often persist when earnings continue to outpace expectations. With multiple blockbuster GLP-1 products, an expanding obesity market, improving reimbursement and a growing international opportunity, Lilly's long-term fundamentals remain compelling. While near-term volatility is always possible after such a strong run, the latest price-target increase suggests many on Wall Street still see meaningful upside, indicating the stock may be expensive — but not necessarily overpriced — for investors with a long-term horizon.

Lilly's GLP-1 Franchise Faces Rising Competitive PressureEli Lilly and Novo Nordisk remain the two dominant players in the fast-growing obesity market. Competition is also intensifying in the oral obesity segment, where Lilly's Foundayo challenges Novo Nordisk's Wegovy pill. While the Wegovy pill has surpassed three million U.S. prescriptions within six months of launch, demonstrating strong early adoption, Foundayo's simpler dosing regimen could help it narrow the gap.

Smaller biotech firms, like Viking Therapeutics (VKTX - Free Report) and Structure Therapeutics (GPCR - Free Report) , are also advancing GLP-1–based therapies to challenge the incumbents. Viking Therapeutics’ dual GIPR/GLP-1 receptor agonist, VK2735, is being developed as both oral and subcutaneous formulations for the treatment of obesity. Viking Therapeutics plans to advance oral VK2735 into phase III development for obesity in the fourth quarter of 2026.

Structure Therapeutics’ phase II ACCESS study on its orally administered GLP-1 RA, aleniglipron, demonstrated significant weight loss across all doses. Structure Therapeutics expects to initiate the late-stage program of aleniglipron in obesity in the second half of 2026.

LLY’s Stock Price, Valuation and EstimatesShares of Eli Lilly have gained 15% year to date compared with the industry’s 11.8% growth. During the same time frame, the company has also outperformed the sector and the S&P 500, as seen in the chart below.

LLY Stock Price MovementImage Source: Zacks Investment Research

From a valuation standpoint, LLY stock is expensive. Going by the price/earnings ratio, the company’s shares currently trade at 30.70 forward earnings, higher than 18.77 for the industry. However, the stock is trading below its five-year mean of 34.56.

LLY Stock ValuationImage Source: Zacks Investment Research

Estimates for Eli Lilly’s 2026 earnings have deteriorated from $35.67 to $35.60 per share in the past 60 days, and estimates for 2027 earnings have improved from $44.48 to $44.58 per share over the same time frame.

LLY Estimate MovementImage Source: Zacks Investment Research

Eli Lilly currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

Drug stocks got hit hard on Monday in what Jim Cramer called a “vicious rotation,” and the selloff looked like the usual crowded-trade unwind. Investors decided the Mounjaro story was played out. On Tuesday morning’s Mad Dash, Cramer walked through why he thinks that reading is wrong, and he had a fresh JPMorgan note flagging “potential upside from Mounjaro international” and U.S. obesity-market growth “much higher than people think” to lean on.

Eli Lilly (NYSE:LLY | LLY Price Prediction) closed Monday at $1,200.06 and was rallying 2.63% on Tuesday as Cramer defended it.

Why the Crowd Thinks It’s Over The played-out thesis has surface merit. Lilly is a $1.16 trillion market cap trading at 44x trailing earnings and 33x forward, the stock has run 59% in the past year, and realized prices on Mounjaro and Zepbound went down 13% last quarter as rebates and market-access deals bit into gross margin.

Reddit sentiment turned bearish from late June onward, with retail chatter dominated by presidential-stock-promotion drama and a “weight loss race” framing that has Novo Nordisk asking suppliers for discounts to try to regain share. So the story going into August is that the easy money has been made, generic GLP-1 competition is coming, and pricing goes only one way from here.

Cramer’s Three-Part Bull Case Cramer’s rebuttal is a runway argument in three parts. First, most of the world isn’t on these drugs yet. The numbers back it. Mounjaro did $8.66 billion in Q1 2026, up 125% year over year, with international revenue growing 81% as China added it to the National Reimbursed Drug List. When you pair a doubling in volume with fresh reimbursement in the world’s second-largest economy, you get a curve that looks nothing like a mature product.

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Second, the pill. Cramer called an oral formulation “radical.” The FDA already approved Foundayo (orforglipron), the only GLP-1 pill that can be taken any time of day without food or water restrictions, and it beat oral semaglutide head to head in The Lancet. Every needle-averse patient, every emerging-market pharmacy without cold-chain distribution, every employer benefits manager choking on injectable pricing suddenly becomes addressable. The GLP-1 total addressable market expands the moment the pill hits shelves.

Third, muscle-sparing. Cramer called losing fat without losing muscle the “holy grail” of the category, and he is right that it is the differentiator that matters for the second wave. Retatrutide, Lilly’s next-gen triple agonist, delivered weight loss up to 71.2 lbs with osteoarthritis pain relief in prior trials. If you are the doctor writing scripts three years from now, you write the one that keeps the patient strong.

The August Earnings Catalyst and the Setup Risk Lilly reports again in the first week of August. The setup is straightforward. Management already raised 2026 guidance to $82.0 to $85.0 billion in revenue and $35.50 to $37.00 in non-GAAP EPS, and the company has beaten estimates four straight quarters, including a 25.88% EPS beat last quarter (see the Q1 2026 8-K). Cramer’s read of the JPMorgan note is that it is the first analyst signal of a positive surprise coming.

The risk is exactly what makes the bull case attractive. A stock trading at a full multiple, up double digits into the earnings report, needs the international ramp and the Foundayo launch numbers to actually land. If oral scripts start slower than the Street models, or if Novo’s rebate war compresses net pricing again, the reaction is asymmetric to the downside. Cramer is likely right that “played out” is the wrong frame for a company still adding countries, formulations, and mechanisms. Whether he is right about the next four weeks is a separate question, and the answer arrives in early August.

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Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

Our 24/7 Wall St. price target for Eli Lilly (NYSE:LLY | LLY Price Prediction) is $1,349.37, pointing to 12.5% upside from a recent price of $1,199.43. We rate LLY a buy with a 90% confidence score. The GLP-1 franchise is compounding faster than the market appreciated last spring, and Foundayo just opened a scalable oral channel to more than 1 billion people globally.

Metric Value Current Price $1,199.43 24/7 Wall St. Price Target $1,349.37 Upside 12.5% Recommendation BUY Confidence Level 90% A Recovery Rally Built on Foundayo and a Q1 Blowout Lilly has been one of 2026’s cleanest turnaround stories. Shares are up 8.34% in the past week, 8.55% over the past month, and 11.99% year-to-date, after climbing off an August 2025 low near $701. The stock now sits about 1% from its 52-week high of $1,238.

Q1 2026 lit the fuse. Revenue of $19.799 billion grew 55.5% year over year, and non-GAAP EPS of $8.55 beat consensus by 25.88%. Mounjaro delivered $8.662 billion (125% growth), Zepbound added $4.160 billion, and management raised full-year revenue guidance to $82 billion to $85 billion with EPS of $35.50 to $37.

The Case for $1,400+: Why Bulls See a Breakout Ahead Our bull case target is $1,409.34, a 17.5% return. The engine is the incretin franchise. Combined Mounjaro and Zepbound revenue hit $12.8 billion in Q1, and international volume grew 81%.

Foundayo, the first oral GLP-1 with no food or water restrictions, is already tracking with 80% of prescriptions going to new-to-class patients, expanding the market rather than cannibalizing injectables.

Retatrutide’s Phase III diabetes readout showed 11.1 to 16.6 kilograms of weight loss, and the pipeline runs 42 active Phase III programs. Wall Street’s consensus target sits at $1,222.62, with 24 Buy ratings.

The Risks Worth Watching Our bear case is $1,111.80, a 7.31% pullback. Realized prices fell 13% in Q1 as rebates, Zepbound cash-pay cuts, and China’s NRDL inclusion took bites out of net revenue.

Bulls will counter that volume grew 65% and gross margin still landed at 82.6%, so unit economics remain excellent. Insider activity leaned toward selling with 15 recent transactions, though heavy investment in four acquisitions and $584 million in IPR&D charges are cash going into future growth, not fundamental deterioration. Novo Nordisk competition and potential pharmaceutical tariffs remain overhangs.

The Bottom Line: A BUY Rating on Lilly My 24/7 Wall St. price target is $1,349.37, a buy with 90% confidence. The tipping factor is the guidance raise: management moved both revenue and EPS ranges higher after just one quarter, and Foundayo contribution is barely in the numbers yet.

The setup strengthens if Foundayo’s Q3 DTC launch drives another guidance hike. The thesis weakens if pharmaceutical tariffs materialize or Q2 price erosion accelerates beyond the low-to-mid teens management has guided.

Looking further ahead, here is where our model projects Lilly could trade if current growth and margin trajectories hold.

Year 24/7 Wall St. Price Target 2026 (year-end) $1,263.70 2027 $1,349.37 2030 $1,798 These projections assume Lilly sustains GLP-1 leadership, executes the Foundayo global rollout, and its 42 Phase III programs deliver meaningful pipeline conversion. Significant upside could come from retatrutide approval; downside risk stems from patent-cliff exposure and accelerating biosimilar competition later in the decade.

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

Eli Lilly (LLY - Free Report) ended the recent trading session at $1,229.93, demonstrating a +1.81% change from the preceding day's closing price. This move outpaced the S&P 500's daily gain of 1.18%. Elsewhere, the Dow saw an upswing of 0.59%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq appreciated by 2.07%.

Heading into today, shares of the drugmaker had gained 9.33% over the past month, outpacing the Medical sector's gain of 7.96% and the S&P 500's loss of 2.9%.

The upcoming earnings release of Eli Lilly will be of great interest to investors. The company is expected to report EPS of $9.01, up 42.79% from the prior-year quarter. Simultaneously, our latest consensus estimate expects the revenue to be $20.44 billion, showing a 31.39% escalation compared to the year-ago quarter.

Looking at the full year, the Zacks Consensus Estimates suggest analysts are expecting earnings of $35.67 per share and revenue of $85.6 billion. These totals would mark changes of +47.34% and +31.33%, respectively, from last year.

Investors should also note any recent changes to analyst estimates for Eli Lilly. These revisions help to show the ever-changing nature of near-term business trends. As a result, we can interpret positive estimate revisions as a good sign for the business outlook.

Our research shows that these estimate changes are directly correlated with near-term stock prices. Investors can capitalize on this by using the Zacks Rank. This model considers these estimate changes and provides a simple, actionable rating system.

The Zacks Rank system, which ranges from #1 (Strong Buy) to #5 (Strong Sell), has an impressive outside-audited track record of outperformance, with #1 stocks generating an average annual return of +25% since 1988. Within the past 30 days, our consensus EPS projection has moved 0.02% higher. As of now, Eli Lilly holds a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold).

In the context of valuation, Eli Lilly is at present trading with a Forward P/E ratio of 33.87. This denotes a premium relative to the industry average Forward P/E of 15.73.

Investors should also note that LLY has a PEG ratio of 1.33 right now. The PEG ratio is akin to the commonly utilized P/E ratio, but this measure also incorporates the company's anticipated earnings growth rate. The Large Cap Pharmaceuticals industry currently had an average PEG ratio of 2.74 as of yesterday's close.

The Large Cap Pharmaceuticals industry is part of the Medical sector. This industry currently has a Zacks Industry Rank of 92, which puts it in the top 38% of all 250+ industries.

The Zacks Industry Rank evaluates the power of our distinct industry groups by determining the average Zacks Rank of the individual stocks forming the groups. Our research shows that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1.

Keep in mind to rely on Zacks.com to watch all these stock-impacting metrics, and more, in the succeeding trading sessions.

Key Takeaways Eli Lilly reached an all-time high after Jaypirca's positive CHMP opinion and Medicare pricing updates.LLY's Jaypirca label expansion filing now heads to the EC after CHMP backed broader CLL use.Eli Lilly will offer eligible Medicare Part D patients Zepbound and Foundayo for $50 monthly. Shares of Eli Lilly (LLY - Free Report) rose more than 7% on Friday after the company announced several positive developments related to its marketed products.

An EMA advisory committee recommended approving the company’s filing seeking label expansion for the oncology drug Jaypirca (pirtobrutinib) to treat adults with chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) across all lines of therapy.

The momentum was further boosted after Lilly announced that its popular obesity drugs, Zepbound and Foundayo, will be available via Medicare for $50 per month starting from July 1, 2026.

LLY Stock PerformanceFollowing these announcements, Lilly's shares climbed to an all-time high of $1,215.76. While neither development materially changes the company's near-term outlook, both strengthen its long-term growth prospects. Expanded Medicare access to its obesity drugs could improve patient affordability and support continued growth for its blockbuster metabolic franchise. Meanwhile, the positive recommendation for Jaypirca not only strengthens Lilly's oncology portfolio but also diversifies its growth across therapeutic areas.

Year to date, the stock has risen 12.4% compared with the industry’s 11.6% growth.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

CHMP Backs Lilly’s Filing for Jaypirca Label ExpansionJaypirca is currently approved in the European Union to treat adult patients with relapsed or refractory CLL who have been previously treated with a BTK inhibitor. The latest CHMP opinion supports expanding its use to adults with CLL across all lines of therapy, regardless of prior BTK inhibitor treatment, significantly broadening the drug's potential patient population.

Lilly’s regulatory filing has now been referred to the European Commission (“EC”), with a final decision expected within the next one to two months. While the EC is not obligated to follow the CHMP's recommendation, it generally does.

The positive opinion is supported by positive data from two late-stage studies. One study evaluated Jaypirca against a chemoimmunotherapy regimen (bendamustine plus rituximab) in treatment-naïve CLL patients. The other compared Lilly’s cancer pill with AbbVie’s (ABBV - Free Report) /J&J’s (JNJ - Free Report) Imbruvica (ibrutinib) in treatment-naïve patients as well as previously treated patients who were BTK inhibitor-naïve. A similar regulatory filing is also under review with the FDA, with a final decision expected before this year’s end.

Medicare Access Expands Reach of Lilly's Obesity DrugsLilly also announced that eligible Medicare Part D beneficiaries prescribed Zepbound or Foundayo for obesity will be able to access the medicines for $50 per month starting next month. The initiative is aimed at improving affordability and expanding access to the company's two obesity drugs, the once-weekly injection Zepbound and daily pill Foundayo.

The move could further strengthen Lilly's competitive position against Novo Nordisk (NVO - Free Report) , which markets Wegovy in both injectable and oral formulations. While Lilly's obesity therapies have demonstrated superior efficacy in clinical studies, NVO's Wegovy products have a longer commercial track record and a well-established safety and tolerability profile. By improving affordability for Medicare beneficiaries, Lilly could further expand the reach of its obesity franchise in an increasingly competitive market. The company estimates that 20 million Medicare patients could meet clinical criteria for obesity medicines.

LLY Zacks RankEli Lilly currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

A new Medicare pathway, the Medicare GLP-1 Bridge program, makes Lilly's obesity medicines – a daily pill or the number 1 most prescribed injectable – accessible to eligible Medicare Part D patients beginning July 1

, /PRNewswire/ -- Eli Lilly and Company (NYSE: LLY) today announced additional details regarding the Medicare GLP-1 Bridge* program taking effect July 1, 2026. Under the program, Medicare Part D patients may be able to access Foundayo (orforglipron) or Zepbound (tirzepatide) KwikPen for single-patient-use for weight management. The Medicare GLP-1 Bridge program will be the first time eligible Medicare Part D patients will be able to broadly receive coverage for a GLP-1 for overweight or obesity.1 We believe this is a milestone that reflects growing recognition of the impact of obesity, including in older adults. Below is what patients and their healthcare providers need to know, including an overview of the clinical and program eligibility requirements determined by Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS).

Are Foundayo (orforglipron) and Zepbound (tirzepatide) covered by Medicare through the GLP-1 Bridge program?
Medicare Part D patients who meet the Medicare GLP-1 Bridge Clinical Criteria and other CMS eligibility requirements may be able to access Foundayo (orforglipron) or Zepbound (tirzepatide) for weight management under the Medicare GLP-1 Bridge program for $50 per month. Other weight management medications are also covered under the program. Coverage begins July 1, 2026, for new and existing patients and will run through December 31, 2027.

Foundayo (orforglipron) and Zepbound (tirzepatide) are indicated for adults with obesity, or some adults with overweight who also have weight-related medical problems, along with a reduced calorie diet and increased physical activity.

To learn more, visit www.lilly.com/lillydirect/medicare. For questions about the Medicare GLP-1 Bridge program, refer to https://www.medicare.gov/coverage/weight-loss-drugs.

Why is this a milestone for people on Medicare living with obesity?
Until now, weight management medications have not been broadly covered by Medicare even though two in five U.S. adults aged 65 and older are living with obesity.2 Creating a Medicare Part D coverage pathway for eligible patients advances Lilly's long-held view of obesity as a chronic disease. It also unlocks access to Lilly's obesity medicines, offering patients and their doctors options rather than a one-size-fits-all approach.

"Lilly estimates that approximately 20 million Medicare patients may meet clinical criteria for obesity medicines, and starting July 1, eligible patients will be able to get Zepbound or Foundayo for $50 per month," said Ilya Yuffa, executive vice president and president of Lilly USA and Global Customer Capabilities. "For many, this will be the first time obesity treatment has been within reach. We're proud to offer Foundayo and Zepbound, giving patients and their doctors a real choice between a daily pill that requires no planning around food or drink and the number 1 most prescribed injectable for weight loss.3 Both are proven to deliver meaningful weight loss when paired with a reduced calorie diet and increased physical activity."

How much do Foundayo (orforglipron) and Zepbound (tirzepatide) cost through the program?
Medicare Part D patients may be eligible for Foundayo or Zepbound for weight management for $50 a month, with a prior authorization and if they meet the Medicare GLP-1 Bridge Clinical Criteria and other CMS eligibility requirements. To learn more, visit www.lilly.com/lillydirect/medicare.

What are Foundayo (orforglipron) and Zepbound (tirzepatide)?
Foundayo (orforglipron) and Zepbound (tirzepatide) are two different Lilly medicines for chronic weight management, giving patients and their healthcare providers a choice of treatment options. Foundayo is a once-daily oral pill that can be taken any time of day, with no planning around food or drink. Zepbound is the most prescribed injectable weight management medication in the U.S. Both are FDA-approved to help adults with obesity, or some adults with overweight who also have weight-related medical problems, lose excess body weight and keep it off, along with a reduced-calorie diet and increased physical activity.

How do Foundayo (orforglipron) and Zepbound (tirzepatide) work in adults age 65 and older? 
In separate analyses of Phase 3 trials, both medicines were associated with meaningful weight loss in adults 65 and older, with safety profiles generally consistent with the overall study population. In a post-hoc analysis of ATTAIN-1, adults 65 and older without type 2 diabetes, experienced an average weight loss of 13% when taking the highest dose of Foundayo. In the ATTAIN program, Foundayo also led to reductions in many markers of cardiovascular risk, including waist circumference, non-HDL cholesterol, triglycerides and systolic blood pressure in adults of all ages.6

In a separate 72-week Phase 3 study, SURMOUNT-1, 56.7% of adults of all ages without type 2 diabetes taking Zepbound (15 mg) achieved at least 20% body weight reduction.7 In a prespecified subgroup analysis of this study, adults 65 and older without type 2 diabetes lost an average of 14.1% of their body weight when taking the lowest approved maintenance dose of Zepbound (5 mg), which is only one step up from the starter dose.8

"Obesity is a chronic, complex disease that deserves effective, long-term treatment options at every stage of life," said Rachel Batterham, senior vice president for Global Cardiometabolic Health at Lilly. "Data show Lilly's Foundayo and Zepbound were associated with meaningful weight loss in people aged 65 and older, with safety profiles generally consistent with other age groups, reinforcing that these medicines may be effective and appropriate for older adults."

Who is eligible for these medicines through the Medicare GLP-1 Bridge program?
To qualify, a person must meet all of the Medicare GLP-1 Bridge Clinical Criteria and other CMS eligibility requirements when treatment is started:9

Be 18 years of age or older Have Medicare Part D drug coverage (not all plan types are covered)† Have a valid prescription, be using, or planning to use, Foundayo or Zepbound for weight management, alongside lifestyle modification consistent with the FDA approved labels Have a Body Mass Index (BMI) of 35 or higher, or a BMI of 27 or higher with certain weight-related medical conditions (or have had one before starting a GLP-1 medicine) Patients currently receiving a GLP-1 through their Part D plan, those with type 2 diabetes, moderate-to-severe obstructive sleep apnea or fatty liver disease are not eligible (a Medicare Part D plan may already cover those conditions).

Patients can talk with their healthcare providers about whether they qualify or refer to https://www.medicare.gov/coverage/weight-loss-drugs.

How can eligible patients get started?
Starting July 1, 2026, eligible patients can begin in five steps:

Talk with a healthcare provider about whether Foundayo or Zepbound is right for them. Request that the provider send a prescription to LillyDirect Pharmacy or a retail pharmacy of their choice. Work with the chosen pharmacy. Ensure that the provider completes a prior authorization. Once approved, the patient pays $50 per month for Foundayo or Zepbound.  LillyDirect can help to determine eligibility and navigate the pre-authorization process. To learn more about eligibility, and see how to get started, visit www.lilly.com/lillydirect/medicare. For questions about Foundayo, Zepbound, or LillyDirect Pharmacy, call 1-844-559-3471.

About Foundayo (orforglipron)
Foundayo (orforglipron) is FDA-approved for adults with obesity, or some adults with overweight who also have weight-related medical problems to reduce excess body weight and maintain weight reduction long term, alongside a reduced-calorie diet and increased physical activity. Foundayo is a once-daily small molecule (non-peptide) oral glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonist that can be taken any time of the day with no planning around food or drink. Orforglipron was discovered by Chugai Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. and licensed by Lilly in 2018. In addition to chronic weight management, orforglipron is being studied as a potential treatment for type 2 diabetes, obstructive sleep apnea, osteoarthritis knee pain, hypertension, peripheral artery disease and stress urinary incontinence.

About Zepbound (tirzepatide) injection
Zepbound (tirzepatide) is the first and only dual GIP (glucose-dependent insulinotropic polypeptide) and GLP-1 (glucagon-like peptide-1) receptor agonist obesity medication. Zepbound tackles an underlying cause of excess weight. It reduces appetite and how much you eat. Zepbound is indicated for adults with obesity, or some adults who are overweight and also have at least one weight-related medical problem, to lose weight and keep it off. Additionally, Zepbound is FDA-approved to treat adults with moderate-to-severe obstructive sleep apnea and obesity. Zepbound should be used with a reduced calorie diet and increased physical activity.

Warnings - Foundayo and Zepbound may cause tumors in the thyroid, including thyroid cancer. Watch for possible symptoms, such as a lump or swelling in the neck, hoarseness, trouble swallowing, or shortness of breath. If you have any of these symptoms, tell your healthcare provider.

About ATTAIN-1 and ATTAIN-2 clinical trial program
The ATTAIN Phase 3 global clinical development program for Foundayo (orforglipron) has enrolled more than 4,500 people with obesity or overweight across two global registration trials.

ATTAIN-1 (NCT05869903) is a Phase 3, 72-week, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial comparing the efficacy and safety of Foundayo 5.5 mg, 9 mg and 17.2 mg as a monotherapy to placebo in adults with obesity, or overweight with at least one of the following comorbidities: hypertension, dyslipidemia, obstructive sleep apnea or cardiovascular disease, who did not have diabetes. The trial is the first Phase 3 study of this patient population in which treatment was evaluated as an adjunct to exercise and a balanced, healthy diet rather than a reduced-calorie diet. The trial randomized 3,127 (195 were 65 and older) participants across the U.S., Brazil, China, India, Japan, South Korea, Puerto Rico, Slovakia, Spain and Taiwan in 3:3:3:4 ratio to receive either 5.5 mg, 9 mg or 17.2 mg Foundayo or placebo. The primary objective of the study was to demonstrate that Foundayo (5.5 mg, 9 mg or 17.2 mg) is superior to placebo in body weight reduction from baseline after 72 weeks in people with a BMI ≥30.0 kg/m² or a BMI ≥27.0 kg/m² with at least one weight-related comorbidity and a history of at least one self-reported unsuccessful dietary effort to lose body weight.

ATTAIN-2 (NCT05872620) is a Phase 3, 72-week, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial comparing the efficacy and safety of Foundayo 5.5 mg, 9 mg or 17.2 mg as monotherapy with placebo in adults with obesity or overweight and type 2 diabetes. The trial randomized over 1,613 (418 were 65 and older) participants across the U.S., Argentina, Australia, Brazil, China, Czechia, Germany, Greece, India, South Korea and Puerto Rico in a 1:1:1:2 ratio to receive either 5.5 mg, 9 mg or 17.2 mg Foundayo or placebo. The primary objective of the study was to demonstrate that Foundayo (5.5 mg, 9 mg or 17.2 mg) is superior to placebo in mean body weight change from baseline at 72 weeks in people with a BMI ≥27.0 kg/m² and type 2 diabetes who are on stable treatment with either diet/exercise alone or up to three oral antihyperglycemic medications.

In both trials, all participants in the Foundayo treatment arms started the study at a dose of Foundayo 0.8 mg once-daily and then increased the dose in a step-wise approach at four-week intervals to their final randomized maintenance dose of 5.5 mg (via steps at 0.8 mg and 2.5 mg), 9 mg (via steps at 0.8 mg, 2.5 mg and 5.5 mg) or 17.2 mg (via steps at 0.8 mg, 2.5 mg, 5.5 mg, 9 mg and 14.5 mg). These trials were conducted using an investigational formulation of Foundayo at dosages equivalent to Foundayo tablets.

The post-hoc analysis included in this press release examined efficacy and safety outcomes in subgroups of participants aged <65 and ≥65 years. Efficacy outcomes were analyzed separately for each study; safety data were pooled. The primary endpoint was percent change in body weight from baseline in Week 72.

Limitations
This is a post-hoc, exploratory analysis of data from the ATTAIN-1 and ATTAIN-2 trials. Results are not pre-specified and should be considered hypothesis-generating. The subgroups analyzed (<65 year and ≥65 and) reflect the distribution of participants enrolled in the trials; the number of participants ≥65 is smaller than the <65 subgroup, and formal comparisons between age groups were not pre-specified. These findings will need to be confirmed in dedicated prospective analyses.

About SURMOUNT-1
Throughout the 72-week clinical trial, people who took Zepbound (tirzepatide) sustained weight loss—whether taking the 5 mg, 10 mg or 15 mg dose along with diet and exercise. In a 72-week study of adults without diabetes, average weight loss was 15.0% (34 lbs) for 5 mg, 19.5% (44 lbs) for 10 mg, 20.9% (48 lbs) for 15 mg, and 3.1% (7 lbs) for placebo. Average starting weights were 226.8 lbs for 5 mg, 233.3 lbs for 10 mg, 232.8 lbs for 15 mg, and 231.0 lbs for placebo.

Limitations of the SURMOUNT-1 prespecified subgroup analysis:

This was a prespecified sub‑group analysis among the secondary endpoints of the SURMOUNT‑1 study. This analysis was not adjusted for type I error.

Endnotes and References 
*Terms apply. Eligibility based on Medicare GLP-1 Bridge Clinical Criteria. Prescription required. Talk to your doctor to learn more.
†Ineligible plan types:

Private fee-for-service (PFFS) plans Section 1876 cost contract plans Section 1833 health care prepayment plans (HCPPs) PACE organizations Fallback plans Religious fraternal benefit (RFB) plans Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services. Medicare and Medicaid Programs; Contract Year 2026 Policy and Technical Changes to the Medicare Advantage Program, Medicare Prescription Drug Benefit Program, Medicare Cost Plan Program, and Programs of All-Inclusive Care for the Elderly. Federal Register. December 10, 2024. Available at: https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/FR-2024-12-10/pdf/2024-27939.pdf  Federal Interagency Forum on Aging-Related Statistics. Older Americans: key indicators of well-being. Published May 2024. Accessed February 4, 2026. https://agingstats.gov/docs/LatestReport/Older-Americans-2024-508-May-update.pdf   Based on IQVIA® National Prescription Audit (NPA) Data for both new and refill prescriptions (total) in the U.S. as of 01/10/2025. Data accessed 01/14/2026, representing 94% of prescription data in US. Total prescription volumes and shares for obesity management therapies include Zepbound®, Wegovy®, Saxenda®, Belviq®, Contrave®, Qsymia®, Xenical® and other obesity management medicines. Other product/company names mentioned are the trademarks of their respective owners. Foundayo. Prescribing Information. Lilly USA, LLC. Zepbound. Prescribing Information. Lilly USA, LLC.   Horn DB, et al. Orforglipron for Obesity Treatment in Older Patients ≥65 Years With or Without Type 2 Diabetes. Presented at: European Congress on Obesity (ECO); May 12–15, 2026; Istanbul, Turkey.  Jastreboff AM, Aronne LJ, Ahmad NN, et al. Tirzepatide once weekly for the treatment of obesity. N Engl J Med. 2022;387(3)(Incl suppl mat):205-216. doi:10.1056/NEJMoa2206038 Data on File. DOF-ZP-US-0060. Lilly USA, LLC. Medicare GLP-1 Bridge. CMS.gov, Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, www.cms.gov/medicare/coverage/prescription-drug-coverage/medicare-glp-1-bridge. Accessed 24 June 2026. INDICATION AND SAFETY SUMMARY WITH WARNINGS
Foundayo (fown-DAY-oh) is a prescription medicine used with a reduced-calorie diet and increased physical activity to help adults with obesity, or some adults with overweight who also have weight-related medical problems, to lose excess body weight and keep the weight off.

Foundayo should not be used with other GLP-1 receptor agonist medicines. It is not known if Foundayo is safe and effective for use in children. Warnings – Foundayo may cause tumors in the thyroid, including thyroid cancer. Watch for possible symptoms, such as a lump or swelling in the neck, hoarseness, trouble swallowing, or shortness of breath. If you have any of these symptoms, tell your healthcare provider.

Do not use Foundayo if you or any of your family have ever had a type of thyroid cancer called medullary thyroid carcinoma (MTC). Do not use Foundayo if you have Multiple Endocrine Neoplasia syndrome type 2 (MEN 2). Do not use Foundayo if you have had a serious allergic reaction to orforglipron or any of the ingredients in Foundayo. Foundayo may cause serious side effects, including:

Inflammation of the pancreas (pancreatitis). Stop taking Foundayo and call your healthcare provider right away if you have severe pain in your stomach area (abdomen) that will not go away, with or without nausea or vomiting. Sometimes you may feel the pain from your abdomen to your back.

Severe stomach problems. Stomach problems, sometimes severe, have been reported in people who use Foundayo. Tell your healthcare provider if you have stomach problems that are severe or will not go away.

Dehydration leading to kidney problems. Diarrhea, nausea, and vomiting may cause a loss of fluids (dehydration), which may cause kidney problems. It is important for you to drink fluids to help reduce your chance of dehydration. Tell your healthcare provider right away if you have nausea, vomiting, or diarrhea that does not go away.

Low blood sugar (hypoglycemia). Your risk for getting low blood sugar may be higher if you use Foundayo with medicines that can cause low blood sugar, such as an insulin or sulfonylurea. Signs and symptoms of low blood sugar may include dizziness or light-headedness, sweating, confusion or drowsiness, headache, blurred vision, slurred speech, shakiness, fast heartbeat, anxiety, irritability, mood changes, hunger, weakness, or feeling jittery.

Serious allergic reactions. Stop using Foundayo and get medical help right away if you have any symptoms of a serious allergic reaction, including swelling of your face, lips, tongue or throat, problems breathing or swallowing, severe rash or itching, fainting or feeling dizzy, or very rapid heartbeat.

Changes in vision in patients with type 2 diabetes. Tell your healthcare provider if you have changes in vision during treatment with Foundayo.

Gallbladder problems. Gallbladder problems have happened in some people who use Foundayo. Tell your healthcare provider right away if you get symptoms of gallbladder problems, which may include pain in your upper stomach (abdomen), fever, yellowing of skin or eyes (jaundice), or clay-colored stools.

Food or liquid getting into the lungs during surgery or other procedures that use anesthesia or deep sleepiness (deep sedation). Foundayo may increase the chance of food getting into your lungs during surgery or other procedures. Tell your healthcare providers that you are taking Foundayo before you are scheduled to have surgery or other procedures.

Common side effects
The most common side effects of Foundayo include nausea, constipation, diarrhea, vomiting, indigestion, stomach (abdominal) pain, headache, swollen belly, feeling tired, belching, heartburn, gas, and hair loss. These are not all the possible side effects of Foundayo. Talk to your healthcare provider about any side effect that bothers you or doesn't go away.

Tell your doctor if you have any side effects. You can report side effects at 1-800-FDA-1088 or www.fda.gov/medwatch.

Before taking Foundayo

Tell your healthcare provider about all the medicines you take. Foundayo may affect the way some medicines work, and some medicines may affect the way Foundayo works. Pregnancy Exposure Registry: There will be a pregnancy exposure registry for women who have taken Foundayo during pregnancy. The purpose of this registry is to collect information about the health of you and your baby. Talk to your healthcare provider about how you can take part in this registry, or you may contact Eli Lilly and Company at 1-800-LillyRx (1-800-545-5979). If you take birth control pills by mouth, talk to your healthcare provider before you take Foundayo. Birth control pills may not work as well while taking Foundayo. Your healthcare provider may recommend another type of birth control for 30 days after starting Foundayo and for 30 days after each dose increase of Foundayo. Talk to your healthcare provider about low blood sugar and how to manage it. Tell your healthcare provider if you are taking medicines to treat diabetes including an insulin or sulfonylurea. Review these questions with your healthcare provider:

❏ Do you have other medical conditions, including problems with your pancreas or kidneys, or severe problems with your liver, severe problems with your stomach, such as slowed emptying of your stomach (gastroparesis) or problems digesting food?
❏ Do you have a history of diabetic retinopathy?
❏ Are you scheduled to have surgery or other procedures that use anesthesia or deep sleepiness (deep sedation)?
❏ Are you pregnant or plan to become pregnant? Foundayo may harm your unborn baby.
❏ Are you breastfeeding or plan to breastfeed? Breastfeeding is not recommended during treatment with Foundayo.
❏ Do you take any other prescriptions or over-the-counter medicines, vitamins, or herbal supplements?

How to take

Take Foundayo exactly as your healthcare provider tells you to. Use Foundayo with a reduced-calorie diet and increased physical activity. Take Foundayo by mouth 1 time each day, with or without food. Swallow tablets whole. Do not break, crush, or chew the tablet. If you miss a dose, take it as soon as possible. Do not take 2 doses of Foundayo in the same day. Do not take more than 1 tablet per day. If you miss taking Foundayo for 7 or more days in a row, call your healthcare provider to talk about how to restart your treatment. If you take too much Foundayo, call your healthcare provider or Poison Help line at 1-800-222-1222 or go to the nearest hospital emergency room right away. Learn more
Foundayo is a prescription medicine available in 0.8 mg, 2.5 mg, 5.5 mg, 9 mg, 14.5 mg, or 17.2 mg oral tablets. For more information, call 1-800-545-5979 or go to foundayo.lilly.com.

This summary provides basic information about Foundayo but does not include all information known about this medicine. Read the information that comes with your prescription each time your prescription is filled. This information does not take the place of talking with your doctor. Be sure to talk to your doctor or other healthcare provider about Foundayo and how to take it. Your doctor is the best person to help you decide if Foundayo is right for you.

OG CON BS APR2026

INDICATIONS AND SAFETY SUMMARY WITH WARNINGS
Zepbound® (ZEHP-bownd) is an injectable prescription medicine used with a reduced-calorie diet and increased physical activity to help adults with:

obesity, or some adults with overweight who also have weight-related medical problems, to lose excess body weight and keep the weight off. moderate-to-severe obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) and obesity to improve their OSA. Zepbound contains tirzepatide and should not be used with other tirzepatide-containing products or any GLP-1 receptor agonist medicines. It is not known if Zepbound is safe and effective for use in children.

Warnings - Zepbound may cause tumors in the thyroid, including thyroid cancer. Watch for possible symptoms, such as a lump or swelling in the neck, hoarseness, trouble swallowing, or shortness of breath. If you have any of these symptoms, tell your healthcare provider.

Do not use Zepbound if you or any of your family have ever had a type of thyroid cancer called medullary thyroid carcinoma (MTC). Do not use Zepbound if you have Multiple Endocrine Neoplasia syndrome type 2 (MEN 2). Do not use Zepbound if you have had a serious allergic reaction to tirzepatide or any of the ingredients in Zepbound. KwikPen®: Do not share your KwikPen with other people, even if the pen needle has been changed. You may give other people a serious infection or get a serious infection from them.

Zepbound may cause serious side effects, including:

Severe stomach problems. Stomach problems, sometimes severe, have been reported in people who use Zepbound. Tell your healthcare provider if you have stomach problems that are severe or will not go away.

Dehydration leading to kidney problems. Diarrhea, nausea, and vomiting may cause a loss of fluids (dehydration), which may cause kidney problems. It is important for you to drink fluids to help reduce your chance of dehydration. Tell your healthcare provider right away if you have nausea, vomiting, or diarrhea that does not go away.

Gallbladder problems. Gallbladder problems have happened in some people who use Zepbound. Tell your healthcare provider right away if you get symptoms of gallbladder problems, which may include pain in your upper stomach (abdomen), fever, yellowing of skin or eyes (jaundice), or clay-colored stools.

Inflammation of the pancreas (pancreatitis). Stop using Zepbound and call your healthcare provider right away if you have severe pain in your stomach area (abdomen) that will not go away, with or without vomiting. You may feel pain from your abdomen to your back.

Serious allergic reactions. Stop using Zepbound and get medical help right away if you have any symptoms of a serious allergic reaction, including swelling of your face, lips, tongue or throat, problems breathing or swallowing, severe rash or itching, fainting or feeling dizzy, or very rapid heartbeat.

Low blood sugar (hypoglycemia). Your risk for getting low blood sugar may be higher if you use Zepbound with medicines that can cause low blood sugar, such as sulfonylurea or insulin. Signs and symptoms of low blood sugar may include dizziness or light-headedness, sweating, confusion or drowsiness, headache, blurred vision, slurred speech, shakiness, fast heartbeat, anxiety, irritability, mood changes, hunger, weakness or feeling jittery.

Changes in vision in patients with type 2 diabetes. Tell your healthcare provider if you have changes in vision during treatment with Zepbound.

Food or liquid getting into the lungs during surgery or other procedures that use anesthesia or deep sleepiness (deep sedation). Zepbound may increase the chance of food getting into your lungs during surgery or other procedures. Tell all your healthcare providers that you are taking Zepbound before you are scheduled to have surgery or other procedures.

Common side effects
The most common side effects of Zepbound include nausea, diarrhea, vomiting, constipation, stomach (abdominal) pain, indigestion, injection site reactions, feeling tired, allergic reactions, belching, hair loss, and heartburn. These are not all the possible side effects of Zepbound. Talk to your healthcare provider about any side effects that bothers you or don't go away.

Tell your doctor if you have any side effects. You can report side effects at 1-800-FDA-1088 or www.fda.gov/medwatch.

Before using Zepbound

Your healthcare provider should show you how to use Zepbound before you use it for the first time. Talk to your healthcare provider about low blood sugar and how to manage it. Tell your healthcare provider if you are taking medicines to treat diabetes including an insulin or sulfonylurea. If you take birth control pills by mouth, talk to your healthcare provider before you use Zepbound. Birth control pills may not work as well while using Zepbound. Your healthcare provider may recommend another type of birth control for 4 weeks after you start Zepbound and for 4 weeks after each increase in your dose of Zepbound. Review these questions with your healthcare provider:

❏ Do you have other medical conditions, including problems with your pancreas, or severe problems with your stomach, such as slowed emptying of your stomach (gastroparesis) or problems digesting food?
❏ Do you take diabetes medicines, such as insulin or sulfonylureas?
❏ Do you have a history of diabetic retinopathy?
❏ Are you scheduled to have surgery or other procedures that use anesthesia or deep sleepiness (deep sedation)?
❏ Do you take any other prescription medicines or over-the-counter drugs, vitamins, or herbal supplements?
❏ Are you pregnant, plan to become pregnant, breastfeeding, or plan to breastfeed? Zepbound may harm your unborn baby. Tell your healthcare provider if you become pregnant while using Zepbound. Zepbound may pass into your breast milk. You should talk with your healthcare provider about the best way to feed your baby while using Zepbound.

Pregnancy Exposure Registry: There will be a pregnancy exposure registry for women who have taken Zepbound during pregnancy. The purpose of this registry is to collect information about the health of you and your baby. Talk to your healthcare provider about how you can take part in this registry, or you may contact Lilly at 1-800-LillyRx (1-800-545-5979). How to take

Read the Instructions for Use that come with Zepbound. Use Zepbound exactly as your healthcare provider says. Use Zepbound with a reduced-calorie diet and increased physical activity. Inject Zepbound under the skin (subcutaneously) of your stomach (abdomen), thigh, or have another person inject in the back of the upper arm. Do not inject ZEPBOUND into a muscle (intramuscularly) or vein (intravenously). Use Zepbound 1 time each week, at any time of the day. Change (rotate) your injection site with each weekly injection. Do not use the same site for each injection. If you take too much Zepbound, call your healthcare provider, call the Poison Help line at 1-800-222-1222 or go to the nearest hospital emergency room right away.

Zepbound is approved as a 2.5 mg, 5 mg, 7.5 mg, 10 mg, 12.5 mg, and 15 mg injection.

Learn more
Zepbound is a prescription medicine. For more information, call 1-800-LillyRx (1-800-545-5979) or go to www.zepbound.lilly.com.

This summary provides basic information about Zepbound but does not include all information known about this medicine. Read the information that comes with your prescription each time your prescription is filled. This information does not take the place of talking with your healthcare provider. Be sure to talk to your healthcare provider about Zepbound and how to take it. Your healthcare provider is the best person to help you decide if Zepbound is right for you.

ZP CON BS 25FEB2026

About Lilly
Lilly is a medicine company turning science into healing to make life better for people around the world. We've been pioneering life-changing discoveries for 150 years, and today our medicines help tens of millions of people across the globe. Harnessing the power of biotechnology, chemistry and genetic medicine, our scientists are urgently advancing new discoveries to solve some of the world's most significant health challenges: redefining diabetes care; treating obesity and curtailing its most devastating long-term effects; advancing the fight against Alzheimer's disease; providing solutions to some of the most debilitating immune system disorders; and transforming the most difficult-to-treat cancers into manageable diseases. With each step toward a healthier world, we're motivated by one thing: making life better for millions more people. That includes delivering innovative clinical trials that reflect the diversity of our world and working to ensure our medicines are accessible and affordable. To learn more, visit Lilly.com and Lilly.com/news, or follow us on Facebook, Instagram, and LinkedIn. P-LLY

Trademarks and Trade Names
All trademarks or trade names referred to in this press release are the property of the company, or, to the extent trademarks or trade names belonging to other companies are referenced in this press release, the property of their respective owners. Solely for convenience, the trademarks and trade names in this press release are referred to without the ® and ™ symbols, but such references should not be construed as any indicator that the company or, to the extent applicable, their respective owners will not assert, to the fullest extent under applicable law, the company's or their rights thereto. We do not intend the use or display of other companies' trademarks and trade names to imply a relationship with, or endorsement or sponsorship of us by, any other companies.

Cautionary Statement Regarding Forward-Looking Statements 
This press release contains forward-looking statements (as that term is defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995), including statements about the supply and access of Zepbound (tirzepatide) and Foundayo (orforglipron) as a treatment for adults with obesity or overweight and Foundayo as a treatment for adults with obesity or some adults with overweight who also have weight-related medical problems and reflects Lilly's current belief and expectations. However, as with any pharmaceutical product, there are substantial risks and uncertainties in the process of drug research, development, access, and commercialization. Among other things, there can be no guarantee that future study results will be consistent with the results to date, that Zepbound or Foundayo will receive additional regulatory approvals, or that Lilly will execute its access and other strategies as planned. For further discussion of these and other risks and uncertainties, see Lilly's most recent Form 10-K and Form 10-Q filings with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission. Except as required by law, Lilly undertakes no duty to update forward-looking statements to reflect events after the date of this release.

CMAT-23048 6/2026 ©Lilly USA, LLC 2026. All rights reserved.

SOURCE Eli Lilly and Company

In the latest close session, Eli Lilly (LLY - Free Report) was down 1.19% at $1,098.78. The stock fell short of the S&P 500, which registered a gain of 1.09% for the day. At the same time, the Dow added 0.14%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq gained 1.91%.

The stock of drugmaker has risen by 9.14% in the past month, leading the Medical sector's gain of 3.16% and the S&P 500's gain of 0.29%.

The investment community will be paying close attention to the earnings performance of Eli Lilly in its upcoming release. The company is forecasted to report an EPS of $9.01, showcasing a 42.79% upward movement from the corresponding quarter of the prior year. Our most recent consensus estimate is calling for quarterly revenue of $20.44 billion, up 31.39% from the year-ago period.

Looking at the full year, the Zacks Consensus Estimates suggest analysts are expecting earnings of $35.67 per share and revenue of $85.6 billion. These totals would mark changes of +47.34% and +31.33%, respectively, from last year.

Investors might also notice recent changes to analyst estimates for Eli Lilly. Such recent modifications usually signify the changing landscape of near-term business trends. As a result, upbeat changes in estimates indicate analysts' favorable outlook on the business health and profitability.

Empirical research indicates that these revisions in estimates have a direct correlation with impending stock price performance. Investors can capitalize on this by using the Zacks Rank. This model considers these estimate changes and provides a simple, actionable rating system.

The Zacks Rank system ranges from #1 (Strong Buy) to #5 (Strong Sell). It has a remarkable, outside-audited track record of success, with #1 stocks delivering an average annual return of +25% since 1988. Over the past month, the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate has moved 0.06% lower. Right now, Eli Lilly possesses a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold).

Digging into valuation, Eli Lilly currently has a Forward P/E ratio of 31.17. This denotes a premium relative to the industry average Forward P/E of 15.47.

Also, we should mention that LLY has a PEG ratio of 1.22. This metric is used similarly to the famous P/E ratio, but the PEG ratio also takes into account the stock's expected earnings growth rate. The Large Cap Pharmaceuticals industry had an average PEG ratio of 2.6 as trading concluded yesterday.

The Large Cap Pharmaceuticals industry is part of the Medical sector. Currently, this industry holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 97, positioning it in the top 40% of all 250+ industries.

The Zacks Industry Rank evaluates the power of our distinct industry groups by determining the average Zacks Rank of the individual stocks forming the groups. Our research shows that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1.

You can find more information on all of these metrics, and much more, on Zacks.com.

Eli Lilly (NYSE:LLY | LLY Price Prediction) just reported a quarter that should have sent bulls into a frenzy. Revenue grew 55.5% year over year to $19.80 billion, Mounjaro alone delivered $8.66 billion, and management raised full-year guidance to $82 to $85 billion.

Yet shares are up just 2.57% year to date at $1,098.57. That disconnect is the entire setup for my question: can LLY trade at $1,200 by year-end 2026? I think it can, and the math is closer than most realize.

What’s Holding Eli Lilly Back Right Now The near-term price action has been ugly. LLY is down 5.37% over the past week after touching $1,160.95 on June 11. The one-month picture is better at +7.55%, but the year-to-date number tells the story of a stock stuck in neutral despite booming fundamentals.

The market worries about pricing. Realized prices fell 13% in Q1 as Mounjaro’s addition to China’s NRDL formulary compressed international margins. Lilly also absorbed $584 million in acquired IPR&D charges from its M&A spree.

Add in 11 recent insider transactions skewed toward selling, and you understand the hesitation. With a beta of 0.517, this should be a steady compounder. Right now it is waiting for a catalyst.

Wall Street Sees Roughly 11% Upside. Our Model Sees More The consensus target sits at $1,215.79, supported by 6 Strong Buy, 18 Buy, 5 Hold, 1 Sell and 1 Strong Sell ratings. That works out to 77% bullish. Our internal model is more aggressive. The base case lands at $1,279.62, implying 16.48% upside, with a bull scenario of $1,334.55 and a bear case of $1,062.97. Confidence on the base case is 90%.

Analysts underweight two things: the speed of the Foundayo (oral GLP-1) ramp and retatrutide’s optionality. Barclays already telegraphed where this could go, maintaining a Buy rating with a $1,400 price target. With earnings growth contributing positively to our 247Factor and bullish consensus at 77%, the $1,200 line looks like a floor.

The Path to $1,200 Per Share Reaching $1,200 from today’s price of $1,098.57 requires a gain of 9.2%. With forward EPS of $35.47, a price of $1,200 implies a forward P/E of 34x. Our base case of $1,279.62 already implies 37x, meaning $1,200 sits below our base case multiple and demands no incremental rerating. The stock simply needs to grow into the earnings.

CEO David Ricks framed it on the Q1 call: “2026 is off to a strong start, we delivered 56% revenue growth in the first quarter and raised our full-year revenue guidance by $2 billion. A key milestone was the U.S. FDA approval of Foundayo.”

Early launch metrics are striking: 8,000+ prescribers and 20,000+ patients in weeks, with 80% of scripts new-to-class. Retatrutide’s Phase 3 readout showing weight loss of 25 to 37 pounds and the retatrutide late-stage trial results comparable to or exceeding Zepbound fuel the model. The primary risk remains continued price erosion outpacing volume gains.

Where Eli Lilly Trades Today vs Its Earnings Power At $1,098.57, LLY trades at roughly 31x forward EPS of $35.47. For a business compounding revenue at 28% at the 2026 guidance midpoint with a forward PE of 31x, that looks reasonable. Shares sit 3% below the 52-week high of $1,182.73 and 77.4% above the $619.40 low. The 10-year return of 1,661.56% shows what happens when this company gets a platform right. Today it has two.

Is $1,200 Realistic? Here’s My Take The $1,200 target requires a 9.2% gain from here, and my model’s base case already overshoots it. I view $1,200 by year-end 2026 as realistic.

Three things need to keep going right: Foundayo’s prescriber base must expand, retatrutide’s June obesity readout must confirm the diabetes data, and Q2 must validate the raised guidance. What derails it is sharper-than-expected pricing reset on Mounjaro and Zepbound in the back half. We’ve outlined the blueprint for how Eli Lilly could reach $1,200 in 2026.

The market for anti-obesity drugs seems to be at risk of calcifying into a dominant duopoly. Eli Lilly (LLY +0.70%) and Novo Nordisk (NVO +3.30%) split it through their GLP-1 medicines: Zepbound (tirzepatide) and Wegovy (semaglutide) for weight management, and Mounjaro (tirzepatide) and Ozempic (semaglutide) for type 2 diabetes. Together they hold nearly the entire U.S. market for branded obesity and diabetes treatments. Those are the kind of conditions that may be ripe for a new entrant to disrupt the incumbents.

Viking Therapeutics (VKTX +7.54%) wants to be that challenger. Its lead candidate, VK2735, has strong early data in hand, and comes as both a weekly shot and a daily pill. And because the company's market cap is just $3.5 billion, the stock is small enough that a modest win of market share could translate into an outsize return for shareholders. So let's investigate how and why this biotech could threaten Lilly and Novo Nordisk.

Image source: Getty Images.

The biotech's data look good but not great VK2735 is a dual agonist of the GLP-1 and GIP receptors, meaning that it uses the same two-target approach as Eli Lilly's tirzepatide.

In one phase 2 trial, a weekly shot of VK2735 led to participants losing up to 14.7% of their weight over 13 weeks; in a separate phase 2 trial, patients taking the pill formulation saw a maximum weight loss of 12.2% over the same period. In both trials, the gastrointestinal side effects reported by patients were overwhelmingly mild or moderate. Importantly, in the injectable trial, the pace of weight loss didn't appear to be tapering at the end of the study period, leaving open the possibility that patients could lose more weight by simply staying on the treatment longer.

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For context, you should also know that in a head-to-head trial, patients treated with tirzepatide lost 20.2% of their body weight over 72 weeks, whereas patients given semaglutide lost only 13.7%. So, over its 13-week study period, Viking's candidate looks competitive with the leaders. Bear in mind, though, that these are separate trials with different patients, doses, and follow-up lengths, so any comparison is suggestive rather than direct. And weight loss on these drugs tends to slow the longer people stay on them.

But while Viking could win an efficacy matchup against Lilly's and Novo Nordisk's best products on the market, it might have a harder time with the late-stage pipeline candidates that those more mature players are trying to bring to the market.

Eli Lilly's candidate retatrutide is a triple agonist, adding glucagon as a target to the GLP-1/GIP pairing. It reported that after 80 weeks of treatment in a phase 3 clinical trial, patients had lost 28.3% of their body weight, with 45% of subjects shedding at least 30% of their weight.

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Similarly, clinical trial data for Novo Nordisk's candidate, CagriSema, show that patients lost about 22.7% of their body weight after 68 weeks of treatment. The company has already filed approval paperwork with the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA).

Viking's candidate is likely still competitive with both of those other programs, as its study period was much shorter. But be aware that the odds of VK2735 being approved and becoming a decisive win for the biotech are slim; it's still an underdog in the GLP-1 market it's targeting.

The base case is decent Viking Therapeutics could threaten the top and bottom lines of both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, if VK2735's late-stage trials confirm the data already published. If the market for weight loss medicines reaches $100 billion before the end of the decade, as some analysts predict, seizing even a 1% share of the market would lift the biotech's valuation well above its current level.

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The phase 3 trials for the injectable formulation of VK2735 only finished enrolling earlier this year, and because the studies run well over a year, their top-line data won't arrive before 2027. The oral formulation's phase 3 is expected to begin around the end of this year.

If both trials replicate the earlier results, it'll signal that Viking Therapeutics' chances of becoming a player in weight loss drugs have improved from "fair" to "pretty good." If, on the other hand, the data show that VK2735 is actually better than what Lilly and Novo Nordisk can deliver with their next crop of weight-loss candidates in the pipeline, the entire situation will shift, and its odds of being a more formidable threat will rise sharply.

Key Takeaways Biotech stocks are exhibiting relative strength amid a 5-year technical breakout. The sector is benefiting from AI-driven efficiency gains. Biotech valuations are near historic lows. Biotech’s Brutal Bear Market Starting in early 2021, the notoriously difficult-to-invest-in biotech sector suffered one of its most brutal bear markets in history. The iShares Biotechnology ETF ((IBB - Free Report) ), a proxy for the Nasdaq Biotechnology Index and pure-play biotech companies, slumped 33%, failing to notch fresh highs for more than four years. While a 33% drawdown may not seem like much in a vacuum, such a drawdown has far more meaning when compared to the S&P 500 Index, which rose more than 60% over the same period.

While U.S. markets have enjoyed a multi-year rally mainly driven by big tech, while biotech has suffered a volatile, choppy, and prolonged sell-off. Although large-cap, cash-rich, mega-cap biotech stocks saw less pain, numerous clinical-stage, speculative biotech stocks loss 50% of their value or more. What caused the carnage?

·       Higher Interest Rates: Early-stage biotech companies often must rely on borrowed money for a decade or more. Interest rate hikes made borrowing more expensive for these companies.

·       Post-COVID Hype Died: While biotech companies were the poster-child of the COVID-19 era on Wall Street, “tourist” investors rushed for the exits afterward, causing selling pressure.

·       Regulatory Red Tape: The Biden Administration’s Federal Trade Commission (FTC) took a very “hawkish” approach to mergers and acquisitions (M&A). M&A is the lifeblood of the biotech sector. Additionally, the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) introduced government negotiations for Medicare, chilling investment in certain therapeutic areas.

Has Biotech Turned the Corner?The biotech sector is showing promising signs that it has turned the corner. Often, the first sign of a turnaround shows its hand in price, which is why legendary investor Stanley Druckenmiller prefers to “invest, then investigate.” That’s exactly what’s occurring in biotech. The IBB is exhibiting extraordinary relative strength. For instance, the Nasdaq dropped nearly 1,000 points on Tuesday. However, IBB bucked the weakness and gained nearly a percent for the session.

Meanwhile, the longer timeframe also shows promising relative strength. While many tech stocks have plunged off recent highs, IBB is making new highs and is on the cusp of breaking out of a massive 5-year base. As the old Wall Street adage goes, “The longer the base, the higher in space!”

Image Source: TradingView

5 Reasons to Own Biotech Biotech’s bull case goes far beyond its price action. Below are 5 reasons to own the sector:

AI Will Drive Discovery, Reduce CostsDiscovering a drug and passing a clinical trial can result in years of research and development (R&D) expenses. However, that is likely to change with the advent of high-powered AI models. Predictive AI models and advanced computing infrastructure will dramatically reduce R&D expenses and shave off years of R&D time.

M&A & Reduced Red TapeBetween now and the end of the decade, the biotech industry faces a tsunami of patent expirations on blockbuster drugs. For instance, the Novartis ((NVS - Free Report) ) heart failure blockbuster drug recently lost key patents, and the Pfizer ((PFE - Free Report) ) breast cancer drug will soon. These massive revenue hits will cause big tech companies to acquire clinical-stage biotech companies to fill the void. Additionally, a less hawkish FTC means that more acquisitions are likely to be given the green light.

The Coming GLP-1 SupercycleBreakthrough GLP-1 drugs like Eli Lilly’s ((LLY - Free Report) ) “Mounjaro” are likely to lead to a biotech super cycle. In fact, GLP-1s are the closest thing the biotech industry has produced to a wonder drug. For instance, GLP-1s have proven to dramatically reduce obesity, inflammation, and the risk of cardiovascular-related death.

Rock-Bottom ValuationsBiotech’s multi-year bear market has resulted in poor sentiment and rock-bottom valuations – a recipe for a bull market. For example, Pfizer’s P/E is currently hovering near an all-time low.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Diversification & DefenseWall Street’s AI frenzy has likely led to overconcentration in the tech sector. As a result, money managers may look to diversify into biotech and defensive healthcare names.

Bottom Line

With the regulatory friction of a hawkish FTC easing, massive big-pharma cash piles searching for pipeline replacements, and game-changing AI efficiencies coming online, the biotech sector’s fundamentals have fundamentally transformed.