Electric air taxi stocks have cratered as a group, but one muted session for Joby hints the relentless selling may be shifting. Whether that signals a genuine floor or just a pause before another leg lower depends on a single…
Electric air taxi developers have spent the past month in a group selloff, and the damage in this corner runs far deeper than anything in large-cap stocks. Joby Aviation (NYSE:JOBY | JOBY Price Prediction) stock is down 0.4% to $4.68 this afternoon, extending a 27% slide over the past month. That muted session hints that the selling could be slowing down, although a single day proves little.
Meanwhile, Archer Aviation (NYSE:ACHR) shares are down 32% over the past month to $3.87, a deeper drop than Joby stock posted and the steepest of the group. EHang Holdings (NASDAQ:EH) stock is down 29% over the past month to $3.35, landing between its two U.S. rivals. Shares of Joby, Archer and EHang have fallen in tandem over the past month, a pattern that points to sector-wide pressure on air taxi stocks.
Two benchmarks show how unusual those declines are. The ARK Autonomous Technology & Robotics ETF (CBOE:ARKQ) is down 11% over the past month. Over the same stretch, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY) is down 2%, so the broad market hasn’t collapsed.
Archer Leads a Sector-Wide Air Taxi Slide Joby shares have dropped alongside Archer and EHang shares, the clearest sign that the selling is hitting air taxi stocks as a group. When Joby, Archer and EHang shares all fall sharply within one month despite different aircraft programs and timelines, the pressure appears to come from how the market values the whole category. That framing matters for the bottom question, because a decline driven by the group can also reverse with the group.
Archer stock stands out on the downside, with a steeper monthly loss than Joby stock. EHang stock lands in between, so Joby shares have held up better than both rivals even after their own sharp fall. For EHang, the upside argument rests on an international fast-track program and an authorized share buyback; the bear case is a more cautious Chinese regulatory stance after a piloted aircraft accident, which prompted it to withdraw full-year revenue guidance.
Joby and Archer Face the Same U.S. Gatekeeper Joby and Archer are both developing piloted electric air taxis that need certification from the Federal Aviation Administration before they can carry paying passengers in the U.S. That shared path ties Joby and Archer shares together, since a regulatory setback or breakthrough can change expectations for both developers at once. Which developer reaches each regulatory step first remains the open question for Joby and Archer.
For Joby, the optimistic thesis rests on its relative resilience and on the direct benefit that each certification step brings to its own aircraft. On the bear side, aviation certification timelines can stretch, and air taxi developers spend heavily long before commercial service begins. Archer stock carries those same certification risks with a weaker monthly chart, which leaves more room for a rebound and stronger evidence of fading confidence at once.
Joby’s Next Certification Milestone Holds the Key to a Bottom A muted session for Joby stock after a steep monthly slide leaves the bottom question open. One quiet day can signal seller exhaustion or simply a pause before another leg lower, and price action alone doesn’t proves which outcome this is. Steep sector selloffs often need several stable sessions before buyers recover confidence, and a single day falls short of that bar for Joby.
The coming test for Joby is whether it reaches its next certification milestone. Clear regulatory progress would give Joby stock a company-specific reason to separate from a group that has traded as one block over the past month. Investors can adjust their holdings carefully given that Archer and EHang shares have yet to meaningfully recover and a sector-wide slide may need a group-wide pause before any floor holds.
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Joby Aviation (JOBY -0.21%) has had a dismal year on Wall Street.
How bad has it been exactly? Try a roughly 68% drop since the start of the year. Indeed, since this time last October, the stock has lost nearly 75% of its value.
$4.64-$0.01 (-0.21%)
NYSE · As of 4:00 PM ET 10/21/26
Things don't seem to be getting better for it, either. Already trading near its 52-week low, the stock continues to lose investors' confidence, even as the company gets closer to achieving its biggest milestone yet: carrying its first paying passengers.
The mismatch between Joby stock's performance and the company's progress makes it an interesting investment to consider. Indeed, for investors with a high tolerance for risk, I think this eVTOL (electric vertical takeoff and landing) company could be one of the more compelling speculative investments to make. Here's why.
In three years, Joby will likely be taxiing paying passengers
Currently, Joby is in a good position. It has shown the world that its eVTOL aircraft can fly, including demonstrations in major metropolitan areas like New York City, San Francisco, and Dallas-Fort Worth.
It is also working through the fifth and final stage of the FAA type certification, while beginning real-world flights through the White House-backed eVTOL Integration Pilot Program (eIPP). With the help of this program, Joby could put paying passengers in the air before the end of 2026.
Meanwhile, the manufacturing of eVTOLs has also been picking up. Thanks to help from its partner Toyota (TM -0.85%), Joby is targeting production of four aircraft per month in 2027. Assuming it hits those production targets, Joby could manufacture 48 aircraft annually, leaving it with a sizable fleet by 2029. And if most, or even some, of those aircraft were flying in major metropolitan areas, the visibility could bolster confidence in the company -- a one-two punch for the stock.
Image source: Joby Aviation.
So, what will Joby be worth in three years?
By October 2029, I predict Joby will have returned to the price it started at in 2026 -- about $13 a share. That could turn a $10,000 investment today into about $28,000 in three years.
The main reason behind this prediction is revenue growth. Within three years, Joby is likely going to quadruple its revenue, probably even more. Indeed, many analysts are expecting more than $400 million in annual revenue from Joby in two years, as the chart below demonstrates.
Data by YCharts
What's not shown above is revenue from Joby's planned acquisition of Resonant Sciences. Over the past 12 months, Resonant Sciences has generated more than $100 million in revenue, growing about 40% year over year. If that growth continues, Resonant could become a significant source of revenue for Joby in 2029.
All in all, this year's sell-off of Joby has helped reset expectations around the stock, but I don't think it has made Joby a worse investment. As long as it can put paying passengers in the air as it plans, investors buying at today's price could be handsomely rewarded over the next three years.
Joby Aviation, Inc. (JOBY - Free Report) has been on a downward spiral lately with significant selling pressure. After declining 27.8% over the past four weeks, the stock looks well positioned for a trend reversal as it is now in oversold territory and there is strong agreement among Wall Street analysts that the company will report better earnings than they predicted earlier.
We use Relative Strength Index (RSI), one of the most commonly used technical indicators, for spotting whether a stock is oversold. This is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements.
RSI oscillates between zero and 100. Usually, a stock is considered oversold when its RSI reading falls below 30.
Technically, every stock oscillates between being overbought and oversold irrespective of the quality of their fundamentals. And the beauty of RSI is that it helps you quickly and easily check if a stock's price is reaching a point of reversal.
So, by this measure, if a stock has gotten too far below its fair value just because of unwarranted selling pressure, investors may start looking for entry opportunities in the stock for benefiting from the inevitable rebound.
However, like every investing tool, RSI has its limitations, and should not be used alone for making an investment decision.
Why a Trend Reversal is Due for JOBYThe RSI reading of 22.65 for JOBY is an indication that the heavy selling could be in the process of exhausting itself, so the stock could bounce back in a quest for reaching the old equilibrium of supply and demand.
The RSI value is not the only factor that indicates a potential turnaround for the stock in the near term. On the fundamental side, there has been strong agreement among the sell-side analysts covering the stock in raising earnings estimates for the current year. Over the last 30 days, the consensus EPS estimate for JOBY has increased 0.3%. And an upward trend in earnings estimate revisions usually translates into price appreciation in the near term.
Moreover, JOBY currently has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy), which means it is in the top 20% of more than 4,000 stocks that we rank based on trends in earnings estimate revisions and EPS surprises. This is a more conclusive indication of the stock's potential turnaround in the near term. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) stocks here >>>> .
Zacks' Research Chief Names "Stock Most Likely to Double"
Our team of experts has just released the 5 stocks with the greatest probability of gaining +100% or more in the coming months. Of those 5, Director of Research Sheraz Mian highlights the one stock set to climb highest.
Of course, all our elite picks aren't winners, but this one could far surpass earlier Zacks' Stocks Set to Double like D-Wave Quantum, which shot up +680.1%.
The heavy selling pressure might have exhausted for Joby Aviation, Inc. (JOBY) as it is technically in oversold territory now. In addition to this technical measure, strong agreement among Wall Street analysts in revising earnings estimates higher indicates that the stock is ripe for a trend reversal.
Imagine it's 2036. You're standing on a rooftop in the heart of New York City, waiting for a ride to the airport. Suddenly, there's a sound like a giant electric fan overhead, and a small helicopter-like aircraft descends. A few seconds later, you step inside, and the aircraft takes off, flying above the traffic below.
Sound futuristic? Well, if Joby Aviation (JOBY -1.07%) has its way, scenes like that could become pretty ordinary over the next 10 years.
That aircraft in the imagined scenario above is an electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft, the very aircraft that Joby is developing. And if it can bring eVTOLs into widespread commercial use, then a $5,000 investment in Joby stock today could be worth considerably more in a decade. How much more? Let's take a look.
Image source: Joby Aviation.
How much could Joby be worth in 2036? Joby is, as I said, developing an eVTOL aircraft for commercial passenger services. This aircraft will carry four passengers plus a pilot on short hops between cities, airports, and other urban destinations.
Currently, Joby has produced five of these eVTOLs, and it is targeting four aircraft per month in 2027. With support from its manufacturing partners Toyota (TM -0.28%), it wants to grow production to 500 aircraft a year. If it can achieve that kind of scale, Joby stock will look very different in 10 years.
So let's do some hypothesizing.
Let's imagine Joby has produced and is operating 2,500 eVTOLs in 2036. Let's also assume that the average flight will generate about $200 in revenue. Flying 24 times a day and 300 days a year, each eVTOL would generate about $1.5 million annually. With 2,500 of these in operation, Joby would generate about $3.6 billion annually from its passenger business.
If we assume a price-to-sales multiple of 3 (currently the average for aerospace and defense), then $3.6 billion in revenue could support a market cap of about $10.8 billion -- or roughly 125% higher than today's valuation. That would more than double your $5,000 investment to $11,250.
But will Joby more than double in 10 years? That's an example of how Joby could grow substantially if its eVTOL business succeeds. Indeed, its passenger eVTOL service could become very lucrative, especially with a fleet of aircraft in the thousands.
But let's be real: Getting 2,500 aircraft into operation is no small feat. And there's no guarantee that its aircraft will complete 24 flights per day, nor that they will fly 300 days per year. And while Joby recently told Fox News it would charge $200 for trips between Manhattan and JFK, in reality, it might have to charge much less than that to attract consumers.
Still, I think Joby has a credible shot at becoming a much larger company over the next 10 years. Risks remain -- and getting the right certification is one -- but for aggressive investors with a long time horizon, shares of Joby could be worth buying today, at least before its eVTOLs become a familiar sight.
FAA Certification appears set to push into late 2027 or early 2028, delaying Joby Aviation's commercial ramp. The Resonant Sciences acquisition adds defense exposure but complicates JOBY's strategic focus and does not directly align with its core eVTOL business. Joby's $2.3 billion cash balance provides a substantial runway, but ongoing cash burn and an uncertain commercialization timeline remain risks.
SANTA CRUZ, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)---- $JOBY--Joby Aviation, Inc. (NYSE:JOBY), a company developing electric air taxis for commercial passenger service, today announced that it expects to release its third quarter 2026 financial results after market close on Wednesday, November 4, 2026, and to host a webcast at 5:00 pm ET on the same day. The webcast will be publicly available in the Upcoming Events section of the company website, www.jobyaviation.com. If unable to attend the webcast, to listen by phone.
If you want to buy eVTOL stocks before the first paying passenger is put into the air, which could theoretically send these speculative stocks soaring to new heights, you might not have a lot of time.
Thanks to the White House-backed eVTOL Integration Pilot Program (eIPP), electric air taxis are already being tested in major cities across the U.S., with paying passengers potentially coming next. And one company in particular, Joby Aviation (JOBY -0.65%), looks especially well-positioned to put those passengers in the air first.
Here's why I would consider buying Joby now before those passengers take off.
Image source: Joby Aviation.
Joby isn't twiddling its thumbs
Joby Aviation is manufacturing electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft. These aircraft are designed to shuttle four passengers plus a pilot over congested city streets, aiming to replace long car rides in traffic with a shorter flight.
Although Joby doesn't have regulatory approval to fly passengers commercially, it has been making remarkable progress. It has logged more than 50,000 miles across its fleet; it has an FAA-conforming aircraft flying in preparation for certification testing; and it has demonstrated its aircraft in the real world on routes in Texas, California, and New York.
All this comes as Joby works through the fifth and final stage of the FAA type certification, which it needs for widespread commercial operations. Thanks in part to the eIPP, however, Joby could begin carrying paying passengers before receiving full FAA type certification. In fact, management is targeting its first passengers before the end of 2026, though there's no guarantee it will hit that deadline.
JOBY Joby Aviation$4.58-$0.03 (-0.65%)
NYSE · As of 11:49 AM ET 10/15/26
Why I would buy Joby now
Here's what I find especially interesting about Joby: It technically already has paying customers. They're not flying on eVTOLs, but they are using an existing air transportation service, one that Joby manages.
In 2025, Joby acquired Blade Air Mobility's passenger transportation business, which arranges helicopter flights. In the second quarter of 2026, Blade generated about $36 million in revenue, accounting for most of Joby's roughly $39 million in revenue for the quarter.
That revenue is not insignificant, but I find Blade fascinating for Joby for another reason: Not only does it give Joby a ready-made market for its electric aircraft, but it also gives Joby data. This is helping Joby understand which routes are most used, what customers are willing to pay, and where to deploy its aircraft first, even before it has that much-needed FAA type certification.
This, combined with Joby's regulatory process, is why I would consider buying Joby. The stock isn't without risks, and there's no guarantee people will use its eVTOL services as much as it wants. But over time, I think this stock has juice: Aggressive growth stock investors might want to consider it now, before Joby's first paying passengers take flight and that watershed moment is behind us.
What's wrong with Joby Aviation (JOBY -3.70%) stock? That's the question many investors are likely asking right now, with the stock plummeting more than 60% already in 2026. Last year, the stock was soaring, and there was plenty of optimism surrounding its future.
Today, however, investors appear to be much more cautious around the company, which hopes to one day be a leader in the electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) market. It hasn't obtained approval for its air taxi yet, but it has been making progress.
Joby's stock hit a new 52-week low on Tuesday, falling to less than $5. Given its promising growth potential, is it a no-brainer buy at this price point?
Image source: Getty Images.
Have investors gotten frustrated?Joby has been nearing FAA certification for its air taxi, but investors have been left waiting. Earlier this year, the company announced it had been selected as a partner for the White House's eVTOL Integration Pilot Program (eIPP), which the company hoped may have "the potential to significantly accelerate Joby's path to commercial service."
When the company released its most recent quarterly results in August, it stated it was in the final stage of FAA Type Certification. Despite all the test flights and progress, investors may be discouraged that the company has not yet launched commercial operations at this point. It has been demonstrating the effectiveness of its air taxis with test flights, but alas, investors may be eagerly awaiting the green light for when commercial operations actually commence.
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Could Joby's stock take off before the end of 2026?Joby's stock is now trading around multi-year lows, levels it has been at since 2024. At a market cap of around $5 billion, it could make for an intriguing investment right now, given the potential for it to soar if its aircraft obtains approval from regulators, hopefully before the end of the year -- but that's by no means a guarantee.
Its inclusion in the eIPP should, however, give investors reason for some cautious optimism that Joby will inevitably commence operations. While there's no certainty as to when that might happen, once it does, the excitement around the stock could return, potentially making Joby a hot buy again.
Unfortunately, there's still a lot of risk with Joby's stock, because while it may have some enticing growth opportunities ahead, even if it does commence commercial operations, it may still be a long time before it has a path to profitability and is generating significant revenue.
For investors who are willing to be patient and who are comfortable with the risk, it may be worth buying. But for more risk-averse investors, this may be a stock more suitable to put on a watch list.
Joby Aviation has already beaten revenue estimates, started flights in Texas, and locked in a manufacturing deal with Toyota, yet the stock sits at its 52-week low. One regulatory decision separates a potential doubling from a collapse toward book value.
Joby Aviation, Inc. (NYSE:JOBY – Get Free Report)’s stock price hit a new 52-week low during trading on Tuesday. The company traded as low as $5.13 and last traded at $5.1450, with a volume of 25,036,014 shares traded. The stock had previously closed at $5.44.
Wall Street Analysts Forecast Growth Several analysts have recently weighed in on JOBY shares. Weiss Ratings raised shares of Joby Aviation from a “sell (e+)” rating to a “sell (d-)” rating in a research note on Tuesday, July 14th. Cantor Fitzgerald reissued a “neutral” rating on shares of Joby Aviation in a research note on Monday, September 21st. Barclays assumed coverage on Joby Aviation in a report on Friday. They set an “underweight” rating and a $4.00 price objective on the stock. Wall Street Zen downgraded Joby Aviation from a “sell” rating to a “strong sell” rating in a report on Saturday, August 8th. Finally, Needham & Company LLC reduced their price target on shares of Joby Aviation from $18.00 to $15.00 and set a “buy” rating for the company in a report on Thursday, August 6th. Two analysts have rated the stock with a Buy rating, four have issued a Hold rating and four have assigned a Sell rating to the company. Based on data from MarketBeat.com, the company has an average rating of “Reduce” and an average target price of $12.72.
Read Our Latest Stock Analysis on JOBY
Joby Aviation Trading Down 5.4% The firm has a market capitalization of $5.09 billion, a PE ratio of -5.20 and a beta of 2.66. The company has a quick ratio of 17.98, a current ratio of 17.98 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.40. The company’s 50-day simple moving average is $6.82 and its 200 day simple moving average is $8.30. Joby Aviation (NYSE:JOBY – Get Free Report) last issued its quarterly earnings data on Wednesday, August 5th. The company reported ($0.25) earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter, missing analysts’ consensus estimates of ($0.23) by ($0.02). The firm had revenue of $38.64 million during the quarter, compared to analysts’ expectations of $30.20 million. Joby Aviation had a negative return on equity of 55.29% and a negative net margin of 755.11%. The firm’s quarterly revenue was up 257493.3% on a year-over-year basis. During the same period in the previous year, the firm earned ($0.41) EPS. As a group, sell-side analysts expect that Joby Aviation, Inc. will post -1.00 EPS for the current year.
Insider Transactions at Joby Aviation In related news, insider Gregory Bowles sold 5,302 shares of the company’s stock in a transaction dated Monday, October 5th. The stock was sold at an average price of $5.78, for a total transaction of $30,645.56. Following the transaction, the insider directly owned 193,704 shares of the company’s stock, valued at $1,119,609.12. This represents a 2.66% decrease in their position. The sale was disclosed in a filing with the SEC, which is available at this link. The transaction was executed under a pre-arranged Rule 10b5-1 trading plan. Also, insider Eric Allison sold 9,331 shares of the stock in a transaction dated Friday, October 2nd. The shares were sold at an average price of $5.95, for a total value of $55,519.45. Following the completion of the sale, the insider owned 719,164 shares of the company’s stock, valued at approximately $4,279,025.80. This trade represents a 1.28% decrease in their ownership of the stock. The SEC filing for this sale provides additional information. The sale was made to cover tax withholding obligations related to the vesting of equity awards. Over the last three months, insiders have sold 919,256 shares of company stock worth $5,846,877. 20.35% of the stock is currently owned by corporate insiders.
Institutional Investors Weigh In On Joby Aviation A number of large investors have recently modified their holdings of the business. Renaissance Technologies LLC lifted its position in Joby Aviation by 194.5% during the 1st quarter. Renaissance Technologies LLC now owns 4,005,200 shares of the company’s stock worth $33,083,000 after acquiring an additional 2,645,200 shares during the period. Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Group Inc. grew its stake in Joby Aviation by 48.1% during the 1st quarter. Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Group Inc. now owns 2,679,515 shares of the company’s stock valued at $22,133,000 after purchasing an additional 870,244 shares during the last quarter. Amova Asset Management Americas Inc. grew its stake in Joby Aviation by 48.1% during the 1st quarter. Amova Asset Management Americas Inc. now owns 2,678,495 shares of the company’s stock valued at $22,124,000 after purchasing an additional 870,244 shares during the last quarter. Bank of New York Mellon Corp increased its holdings in shares of Joby Aviation by 27.6% in the second quarter. Bank of New York Mellon Corp now owns 2,136,710 shares of the company’s stock valued at $19,059,000 after purchasing an additional 462,585 shares during the period. Finally, USS Investment Management Ltd acquired a new position in shares of Joby Aviation in the first quarter valued at about $8,868,000. Hedge funds and other institutional investors own 52.85% of the company’s stock.
Joby Aviation Company Profile (Get Free Report)
Joby Aviation, Inc (NYSE: JOBY) is an aviation company developing all-electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft for commercial passenger transportation. Its aircraft are designed to take off and land vertically like a helicopter while providing quieter, lower-emission transportation for short urban and regional trips.
The company is pursuing an integrated air-taxi business model that includes designing and manufacturing its aircraft, operating passenger services, and developing the software and infrastructure needed to support aerial mobility.
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Joby Aviation has shed a fifth of its value in a single month while the broader market climbed, and the reasons point to something bigger than one company's bad stretch. Here is what the numbers reveal about whether holders should…
Joby Aviation (NYSE:JOBY | JOBY Price Prediction) stock is down 20% over the past month to $5.14. This drop leaves shareholders mulling whether to stay with the electric air taxi developer.
Meanwhile, Archer Aviation (NYSE:ACHR) stock is down 16% over the past month to $4.61, representing a smaller decline than Joby stock’s. Additionally, EHang Holdings (NASDAQ:EH) stock is down 12% over the past month to $4.03, a lighter drop than Joby’s as well.
For a broader read, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY) is up 2% over the past month to $777.80. The ARK Autonomous Technology & Robotics ETF (BATS:ARKQ), which holds both Joby and Archer Aviation, is down 0.2% over the same stretch to $121.80. That split frames the question for Joby holders: the selling has concentrated in one narrow industry group while the broad market climbed.
Air Taxi Names Fell Together
All three electric air taxi stocks fell over the past month while the S&P 500 fund rose, a pattern that points to selling across one group of companies. Joby has issued no announcement in the past month that explains the decline. Its most recent major update came on its August 5 call covering the second quarter of 2026, when CFO Rodrigo Brumana reported revenue of $39 million, drawn primarily from the Blade passenger helicopter business, as the company raised its full-year sales guidance.
On the same call, Brumana said Joby ended the quarter with approximately $2.3 billion in cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments. Brumana also reported a net loss of $245 million under generally accepted accounting principles and guided to second-half cash use of $385 million to $415 million. Those results precede the past-month window, so they frame Joby’s finances without accounting for the recent selling.
What the Peer Group Says About Joby
Joby is building an electric aircraft that takes off vertically, and it needs regulatory certification before it can carry paying passengers, but until then, almost all of Joby’s current revenue comes from Blade, the conventional helicopter business it acquired.
Skeptics start with the spending guidance, which points to heavy outlays through the rest of the year while the revenue that matters still sits ahead of certification. A company funding a long timeline is exposed every time risk appetite contracts. JoeBen Bevirt, Joby’s founder and chief executive at the time of the call, acknowledged the execution challenge, stating, “As we’ve said before, manufacturing is hard.”
Supporters of Joby stock point to a cash position that’s large relative to the company’s size, and they also note that the helicopter business already produces revenue while the aircraft moves through certification. Brumana added that Joby can “stage a portion of that spend to match our progress, keeping our usual capital discipline.”
What to Watch Next
Joby’s next test is whether certification milestones arrive on the timetable management has described. Traders may want to check for whether second-half cash use lands inside the guided range. Either result could reset how the market prices Joby’s long timeline.
A stock tied to a certification calendar can swing sharply in both directions, and Joby’s past month shows the downside of that profile in plain terms. It makes sense to keep one’s positions modest enough that further volatility in the air taxi group wouldn’t force a rushed decision (we wrote a free guide on sizing speculative positions with rules that keep them from hurting, here: Small Stakes, Big Swings).
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
If I were to pick one growth stock with the potential to mint new millionaires, Joby Aviation (JOBY -2.76%) would come to mind first.
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In a nutshell, Joby is manufacturing electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft. For years, these aircraft have existed only in experimental contexts. But with help from the White House, eVTOLs are beginning to enter real-world operations. Indeed, Joby has demonstrated these aircraft in California, New York, and, most recently, Texas, and it expects to carry its first passengers by the end of 2026.
Image source: Joby Aviation.
The market opportunity for Joby's eVTOLs is huge. If Joby operated thousands of these aircraft across major cities, it could generate billions in annual revenue.
Joby currently trades at a little less than $6 per share and has a roughly $5 billion market cap. If Joby were to grow to the size of Uber today (about $140 billion), its value would increase about 28-fold. Assuming no major dilution, that could put Joby at about $165 a share.
Under those assumptions, an investment of roughly $36,000 today could grow into $1 million.
Still, risks remain. Joby doesn't have the FAA type certification to fly passengers commercially, nor has it manufactured a major fleet of eVTOLs. As such, the stock is a high-risk, high-reward bet on an industry that doesn't exist yet. Only investors who can stomach major volatility should consider buying today.
Steven Porrello has positions in Joby Aviation. The Motley Fool recommends Uber Technologies. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Joby Aviation (JOBY -5.39%) just accomplished something pretty spectacular. An aircraft equipped with Joby's autonomous flight technology traveled 3,199 miles across the United States without a human pilot touching the controls.
The converted Cessna Caravan taxied, took off, navigated across the country, avoided bad weather, and landed autonomously. To clarify, a safety pilot was onboard, but Joby says that the pilot made zero control inputs during the entire journey. That's a big deal.
The aircraft wasn't just circling a controlled test facility, either. It traveled from California to North Carolina, operated at multiple airports, navigated real-world airspace, and was remotely supervised from locations as far as 2,323 miles away. Joby says it's the first autonomous flight across the United States.
Wall Street's response? Joby stock actually fell about 1% on Sept. 18, the day the company announced the achievement.
Why this flight actually matters Most investors know Joby for its electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) air taxi. But the company is actively building another business around autonomous aviation. Joby's technology can be integrated into different aircraft and used for cargo transport, medical deliveries, disaster response, and military logistics. In fact, Joby's autonomous system has already accumulated more than 800 automated flight hours across 400 flights and participated in major U.S. military exercises.
Image source: Getty Images.
In one Air Force exercise, Joby's autonomous aircraft delivered critical replacement parts that allowed other aircraft to return to service roughly 24 hours sooner than conventional logistics would have allowed. The company also acquired autonomy technology through its 2024 purchase of Xwing's autonomy division and has since expanded its defense ambitions.
So why didn't the stock take off? Joby still has much bigger questions to answer. The company is spending heavily as it works toward Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) certification and commercial production of its electric air taxi. In the second quarter, Joby reported $38.6 million in revenue, but a $245.4 million net loss. It used $202 million of cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments during the quarter.
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The good news is that Joby ended June with about $2.3 billion in cash and short-term investments, giving it substantial financial firepower to keep developing its technology. But the market isn't valuing Joby based on whether an autonomous Cessna can fly across America. It's waiting to see whether Joby can turn its technology into a large commercial business.
That means FAA certification. It means manufacturing aircraft at scale. It means launching commercial air taxi operations. It also increasingly means proving there's a profitable business in autonomous aviation and defense.
The cross-country flight didn't answer those questions, but it did prove something significant: Joby's autonomous flight technology can operate thousands of miles across real-world airspace without a pilot taking control. Wall Street may have shrugged, but the technology didn't.
Sell Joby Aviation (JOBY). The stock is still trending down (lower highs/lows), below all moving averages, and a death-cross is nearing—momentum favors more downside. Fundamental pressure is real: dilution risk (shares up to ~986M) and a $116.9M Aerosonic verdict that can force cash outflows even if appealed. Even “near commercialization” doesn’t matter if investors fear capital needs before profits show up.
Key Risk: A clear, credible path to commercialization funding without dilution (e.g., large non-dilutive financing or strong contract wins that remove the capital-raise fear).
eVTOL basket short
Short the eVTOL peer group via ETFs/ETNs that track the theme (e.g., short an eVTOL-focused basket or use inverse exposure where available). The article shows the sell-off is industry-wide (Ehang, Archer, Vertical, Eve, BETA all collapsing). That means JOBY-specific positives won’t stop the sector de-rating; the market is repricing the whole timeline and cash-burn risk.
Key Risk: A sector-wide catalyst that flips sentiment fast—major certification/commercial revenue milestones across multiple companies that proves the business model now.
Joby Aviation JOBY stock has continued its steep slide, erasing most of the gains it made between 2023 and August 2025, when it surged from $3.10 to $21. The shares have now dropped to a low of $5.27, and the company’s market capitalization has fallen from $15.7 billion to $5.24 billion. With Joby nearing its commercialization phase, the question is whether this sell-off will continue.
The ongoing Joby Aviation’s sell-off has coincided with that of other companies in the electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) industry. Ehang, the Chinese eVTOL giant, dropped to $4.20, its lowest level since November 2022 and 85% below its highest point last year.
Archer Aviation, its top competitor in the US, dropped to $4.86 from a high of $14.6 last year. Vertical Aerospace, Eve Holding, and BETA Technologies have all continued their freefall.
The ongoing crash is happening even as Joby nears the commercialization phase of its business, which is expected to happen later this year or early in 2027. Investors are now starting to focus on whether its revenue and profits will surge after it enters the commercialization phase.
Most importantly, there are concerns about the company’s dilution. Its outstanding shares have soared to 986.52 million, up sharply from 604 million in 2022. While it ended the quarter with over $2 billion, there is a risk that it will need to raise additional capital because its profitability will take time.
The company has also suffered a big setback after a jury in Tampa awarded Aerosonic nearly $116.9 million. According to Reuters, the jury determined that Joby owes $68 million for breaching a non-disclosure agreement and $48 million for misappropriating trade secrets regarding air data probes. Joby has disagreed with the verdict and is hoping to appeal.
On the positive side for Joby, analysts expect that its revenue growth has more room to accelerate. The average estimate among analysts is that its annual revenue for this year is $119.5 million, up by 123% from a year earlier. It will then make $219 million next year, driven by its commercialization efforts and its Blade segment.
Another potential catalyst for Joby is that it is seeking to become a big player in the defense industry through its acquisition of Resonant Sciences.
Joby Aviation stock chart | Source: TradingView
The weekly chart shows that the Joby Aviation stock has been in a strong sell-off in the past few months. It has moved from a record high of $20.9 last year to the current $5.25.
The stock has continued to have a series of lower lows and lower highs. At the same time, it has slumped below all moving averages. Worse, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has continued falling and is nearing the oversold level of 32. It is also nearing the death cross pattern.
This means that it is still not in the oversold level, suggesting that it has more downside to go. If this happens, the stock may continue falling, with the next target to watch being at $3.21, its lowest level in December 2022.
Joby Aviation Stock Crashes to 52-Week Low After Brutal Sell-Off Summary
Despite higher quarterly revenue and a Buy rating from H.C. Wainwright, Joby Aviation faces continued investor caution over commercialization and execution risks
Joby Aviation (JOBY) shares fell nearly 8% in morning trading Friday, touching $5.3 and setting a new 52-week low as investor concerns weighed on the electric aircraft developer.
The stock has lost about 65% of its value over the past year and now trades more than 70% below its 52-week peak of $18.77. The latest decline adds to pressure on a company working to establish its position in the emerging electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft market.
Recent business developments have offered some support. Joby reported $38.6 million in second-quarter 2026 revenue, compared with $24.2 million in the first quarter. Its Blade passenger business contributed $36.2 million, reflecting increased activity in the air mobility segment.
The company has also agreed to acquire defense technology firm Resonant Sciences for about $500 million, expanding its exposure to defense-related work. However, the stock's continued slide suggests investors remain cautious about its commercial prospects and execution risks.
H.C. Wainwright maintained a Buy rating with an $18 price target, while Cantor Fitzgerald retained a Neutral stance. Investors will be watching progress on commercialization, funding needs and the integration of the planned acquisition as Joby seeks to regain market confidence.
Disclosures I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and have no plans to buy any new positions in the stocks mentioned within the next 72 hours.
The market has hit a record high, and almost none of that belongs to the average stock.
That gap is where Whitney Tilson of Stansberry Research is doing his shopping. His case is that the index is masking a broad bear market underneath, and that the cleanest values right now sit entirely outside artificial intelligence. Three names carry the argument: a speculation, an off-the-radar mid-cap, and the largest drugmaker in the world.
Get Joby Aviation alerts:
A Record-High Index Is Masking a Market-Wide Bear MarketBy Tilson's count, 19 of the 20 largest contributors to the S&P 500 this year are AI-related, and those names account for essentially the entire 13% index return. The other 480 stocks are collectively flat. Roughly 59% of S&P 500 components trade at least 20% below their all-time highs, and about one in six is down 50% or more.
That is what a bifurcated market looks like, and it is why a value investor staring at a 99th-percentile Shiller multiple still has a long shopping list.
Tilson works the old Buffett-Munger way: estimate what a private buyer would pay for the whole business, then buy at a steep discount. The approach needs the market to make mistakes, and a market this narrow makes plenty. ServiceNow NYSE: NOW was the recent one. Investors priced in agentic AI gutting enterprise software subscriptions, large corporations declined to rip out systems that worked, and the stock recovered sharply.
Joby Aviation Is a Speculation With a Second Buyer AttachedJoby Aviation Today
$5.78 +0.04 (+0.61%)
As of 10:17 AM Eastern
This is a fair market value price provided by Massive. Learn more.
$5.58▼
$18.77$13.81
Joby Aviation NYSE: JOBY builds an electric aircraft that takes off vertically, then rotates its motors forward to fly. It behaves like a helicopter and runs roughly 99% quieter, which is the entire commercial argument: most helicopters are not welcome over cities.
Tilson first recommended it near $7 three years ago. It tripled, then round-tripped back to about $7 and a $6 billion market cap. The caveats are not small. No revenue, no FAA approval, no commercial flights. This is a position to size carefully, not a core holding.
The market is pricing a delay. Commercial service in the United Arab Emirates, a 30-minute hop between Abu Dhabi and Dubai, slipped when regional conflict interrupted the timeline, and investors who saw no near-term catalyst sold. U.S. approval is realistically one to two years out, though Joby sits further along than any competitor.
What could change sentiment is the first paying flight. What limits the downside is everything else the company owns: electric motor and battery technology, an engineering team, and aircraft already delivered to the U.S. Air Force, where a silent airframe has obvious value. If air taxis never become a business, Tilson expects a bidding war from electric vehicle makers and defense primes.
Casey's General Stores Looks Like Walmart Did in 1988Casey's General Stores Today
CASY
Casey's General Stores
$638.95 +5.70 (+0.90%)
As of 10:17 AM Eastern
This is a fair market value price provided by Massive. Learn more.
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Casey's General Stores NASDAQ: CASY runs about 3,000 convenience stores across 19 states from a Des Moines headquarters, on roughly $18 billion in revenue and a $22 billion market cap. It is the third-largest convenience chain in the United States and the fifth-largest seller of pizza, which is the point: the high-margin "inside" business carries the model, and more than half of sales now run through the app.
The stock fell about 34% in two months, dropping it from 35 times forward earnings to 26. The trigger was a quarter where fuel margin carried the beat while in-store comps decelerated and management reaffirmed rather than raised guidance. At a premium multiple, reaffirming is not enough.
Nothing about the competitive position changed. Walmart NYSE: WMT carried the same $18.6 billion in trailing sales in mid-1988, at nearly identical profitability and nearly the identical forward multiple, and has been close to a 100-bagger since. The comparison is not a forecast. It is a reminder that 26 times is cheap for a business that can compound earnings at a double-digit rate for a decade. Casey's targets towns of 500 to 20,000 people, and Texas alone holds roughly 2,000 of them.
Eli Lilly's Next Obesity Drug Is the Part the Market Is DiscountingEli Lilly and Company Today
LLY
Eli Lilly and Company
$1,149.23 -39.49 (-3.32%)
As of 10:17 AM Eastern
This is a fair market value price provided by Massive. Learn more.
$783.85▼
$1,292.650.60%
38.65
$1,313.43
Eli Lilly NYSE: LLY carries a trillion-dollar market cap and trades near 40 times trailing earnings, which makes it look like a story investors already missed. Tilson puts the company in the middle innings at most.
Two things support that. The first is retatrutide, Lilly's next-generation weight-loss candidate and the first to target three hormone receptors at once, rather than the two that tirzepatide targets in Zepbound and Mounjaro. Average weight loss in trials has run closer to 29% against roughly 20% on Zepbound, with less muscle loss. Lilly plans to file with the FDA in early 2027, which puts a launch in late 2027 at the earliest.
The second is the size of the eventual market. Studies keep surfacing benefits beyond weight itself, across fatty liver disease, sleep apnea, inflammation, cholesterol, and addictive behavior. The argument is that demand eventually extends past people who need to lose weight, with low-dose use becoming common among people who do not.
On estimates Tilson believes are too conservative, Lilly trades near 28 times forward earnings, below where it has sat for most of the past few years.
Where the Risk and the Upside SitThe risk is uneven. Joby can drift for quarters without a catalyst and burn goodwill along the way. Casey's needs in-store comps to stabilize, because a fuel-led beat leaves guidance looking fragile. Lilly faces real pricing pressure across the category and a long regulatory runway before retatrutide sells a single dose.
The upside shares one trait. All three sold off on sentiment rather than broken fundamentals, which is the only condition under which a value approach works at all.
Watch the catalysts instead of the quotes: first commercial flights at Joby, inside same-store sales at Casey's, and the retatrutide filing at Lilly. Those are the things that move these three.
For investors looking for more of Tilson's insights, visit here.
Should You Invest $1,000 in Joby Aviation Right Now?Before you consider Joby Aviation, you'll want to hear this.
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BERKELEY, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- #AdvancedAirMobility--BitRipple enables real-time connectivity across satellite and cellular networks for flight-critical telemetry and monitoring in advanced air mobility.
Like a toddler, Joby Aviation (JOBY -1.64%) seems to be growing up fast.
No longer is it the speculative aviation stock of yesterday, the company with big ambitions but zero revenue and nothing to its name but an experimental aircraft. There are still unknowns to be solved -- how to scale its business while keeping costs under control -- but if last month's flight demonstrations in Texas showed us anything, it's that Joby is getting very close to turning its air taxi dreams into a commercial operation.
Where, then, will Joby Aviation be in three years? And how much will a $5,000 investment today be worth by then?
Image source: Joby Aviation.
What I expect from Joby over the next three years In a nutshell, Joby wants to commercialize a passenger electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft. Although it does not have regulatory approval to fly paying customers in an eVTOL, I believe it will in three years.
Indeed, Joby is already farther along in the five-stage FAA certification process than most people think. It has completed about 75% of the fourth stage, and it is now making steady progress through the fifth and final stage. In September, it began flight demonstrations in Texas for the White House-backed eVTOL Integration Pilot Program (eIPP). While Joby hasn't given a firm date for when it expects to receive this much-needed certification, I think it's reasonable to expect it will clear this hurdle well before the end of 2029.
Not only that, but I also expect Joby to produce more aircraft in that year. Right now, Joby's goal is to have the manufacturing capacity to produce four aircraft monthly in 2027. With help from its manufacturing partner, Toyota Motor, I think Joby will have the capacity to support even more aircraft by 2029.
Finally, I believe Joby's revenue will be significantly higher than today. Right now, Joby's revenue comes mostly from Blade's passenger business. By 2029, however, Joby will likely have several revenue streams, including its own air taxi services and defense work through its planned acquisition of Resonant Sciences.
JOBY Revenue (TTM) data by YCharts
A $5,000 investment in Joby today will be worth this much With all that said, I strongly believe Joby will more than double by the end of 2029. More specifically, I think shares will be worth $15 by then. Doing the math, a $5,000 investment today would be worth about $13,000 in three years.
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Granted, that's a very bullish estimate, and it very much assumes Joby clears the FAA hurdle and begins manufacturing at scale. If I were to project a more bearish scenario -- say, FAA-type certification takes longer than expected, or air taxis don't catch on quickly enough -- I'd see Joby trading at a price not much higher than today's.
That is, of course, the risk of investing in Joby: Its valuation today leaves plenty of room for growth, yet success isn't guaranteed.
As such, I'd continue to approach Joby Aviation stock with caution. A small speculative position might suit aggressive investors, but don't feel as if you have to buy this one yet if you're not comfortable with volatility.
The world of electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) vehicle stocks has already been roiled by lawsuits and countersuits over the past year.
Today, one of those suits took a big step toward final resolution, as a federal jury returned a multimillion-dollar verdict in a dispute between avionics supplier Aerosonic, a TransDigm Group (TDG +0.98%) subsidiary, and eVTOL start-up Joby Aviation (JOBY +0.00%).
Here's what the dispute was about and how it will affect the company moving forward.
Image source: Joby Aviation.
A case about IP and NDAsFlorida-based Aerosonic was one of Joby's suppliers. After the companies signed a non-disclosure agreement (NDA) in September 2021, Aerosonic began supplying air data probes to Joby for use in Joby's test eVTOLs.
Air data probes are placed around an aircraft and measure air pressure. The data from the probes allows the aircraft's flight computers to calculate airspeed, altitude, and other essential flight conditions.
In March 2025, after Joby developed its own air data system, Aerosonic sued Joby, alleging that Joby had violated the NDA by using Aerosonic's proprietary designs and test data to develop its own probes. Joby filed a countersuit, alleging that Aerosonic had actually breached the NDA and that the probes Aerosonic sold to Joby were defective.
Today, the jury returned a verdict in the U.S. District Court for the Middle District of Florida, awarding Aerosonic over $100 million.
Image source: The Motley Fool
A lopsided verdictThe jury had to decide whether Aerosonic had proven that 50 items of "Alleged Proprietary Information" and 50 "Alleged Trade Secrets" were valid pieces of its intellectual property and (for proprietary information) whether Joby had breached the NDA with respect to it, or (for trade secrets) whether Joby had misappropriated it.
The jury agreed that Aerosonic had proven all of its claims by a preponderance of the evidence. It rejected all 8 of Joby's affirmative defenses and counterclaims. Jurors also found that Joby's misappropriation of trade secrets was "willful and malicious," which incurred additional "exemplary damages" beyond the usual "compensatory damages."
The jury awarded Aerosonic $68.6 million for the NDA breach, $29.9 million to cover Aerosonic's losses and Joby's gains from the misappropriation of trade secrets, and $18.3 million in exemplary damages.
It adds up to about $116.9 million in total.
The verdict still needs to be finalized, and a Joby spokesperson has vowed the company will "vigorously pursue all available post-trial and appellate remedies."
But if the verdict stands, what impact will it have on Joby?
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The impact sounds big, but will likely be smallNo company likes to pay $116.9 million, especially a small company like Joby.
There might be some reputational damage to Joby among its current parts suppliers, but that's tough to quantify. The big question is how it will affect Joby's finances.
Joby currently has about $2.3 billion in cash and short-term investments on its balance sheet. It could pay $116.9 million out of that pile without even breaking a sweat.
Joby already has significant cash burn. Over the last year, it has reported a negative free cash flow rate of $743.3 million.
At that rate of cash burn, Joby would go through its $2.3 billion cash hoard in about 37 months. With this verdict factored in, that would change to... 35 months.
In other words, because the only penalty in this verdict is financial, the overall impact on Joby is likely to be minimal.
Joby Aviation sits a few cents above its 52-week low while the business quietly beats revenue estimates and a White House-backed pilot program reshapes the demand picture. The catch hiding inside that 91% upside could determine whether early buyers are…
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Our 24/7 Wall St. price target for Joby Aviation (NYSE:JOBY | JOBY Price Prediction) is $11.38 over the next 12 months. The current price is $5.96.
Metric Value Current Price $5.96 Price Target from 24/7 Wall St. $11.38 Upside/Downside 91.02% Recommendation BUY Confidence Level 50% Joby earns a buy rating from our model with moderate confidence. The key risk is cash, as Joby spends hundreds of millions every half year while waiting FAA type certification. The upside depends on reaching milestones before needing another capital raise.
Joby Shares Have Lost More Than Half Their Value in 2026 Joby fell 5.87% over the past week and 11.36% over the past month. It is down 55.08% year to date. The stock sits just above its 52-week low of $5.93 and far below its high of $19.98.
The business is outpacing the stock, with Q2 revenue of $38.64M beat the $30.38M estimate. Blade drove the beat, with seats flown up 50%+. GAAP EPS of -$0.25 missed expectations of -$0.2345. Full-year revenue guidance was raised to $115M-$125M, and the company aims to carry first passengers in 2026.
Why Bulls See $14.56 Within Reach The bull scenario reaches $14.56 within a year. The main driver is eIPP, the White House-backed eVTOL pilot program. The CFO said it allows Joby “monetize every single aircraft that comes off our production for the foreseeable future.” Certification is progressing:
Stage 3 plans are 83% complete on Joby’s side. The first FAA-conforming aircraft is flying. 12 more aircraft are in production. Toyota (NYSE:TM) plans a $250 million direct investment, expected to close later this year or early next. A planned launch in Dubai brings an international catalyst. Joby carries one Strong Buy and two Buy ratings.
Cash Burn and Dilution Could Cap Gains The bear case of $8.52 still sits above today’s price. Joby used $365 million in H1 and guided to $385 to $415 million for H2. Share count rose from 894.6 million at end-2025 to 969.9 million by June. Stage 4 testing is 20% complete on Joby’s side and 10% on the FAA’s.
Joby ended Q2 with $2.3 billion in cash and short-term investments. Non-cash revaluations distort GAAP losses, including a $106M gain in Q1. Much spending goes to the Ohio plant and production increase.
Joby Commands a Premium to Archer but Trails Textron Archer Aviation (NYSE:ACHR) is Joby’s main eVTOL rival under eIPP. Archer posted $5 million in Q2 revenue and $1.56 billion in liquidity. Joby’s larger revenue and cash buffer support its premium valuation.
Textron (NYSE:TXT) shows what a profitable aircraft manufacturer is worth. Textron guides to adjusted EPS of $6.40 to $6.60 for 2026. Joby’s valuation already prices in years of future scale.
Company Market Cap Q2 2026 Revenue Joby $5.94B $38.64M Archer $3.73B $5M Textron $13.27B $3.827B Milestones Make the 91% Upside Credible My 24/7 Wall St. price target is $11.38, with a buy rating at 50% confidence. Joby has enough cash to reach its next milestones. Watch for eIPP flights in Texas advancing to carrying passengers and Toyota’s investment closing on time.
Risks to monitor include a Stage 4 stall or another dilutive raise before certification. At this price, the model’s bear case of $8.52 still sits above the current share price.
These are the year-end values from our base-case model.
Year Price Target from 24/7 Wall St. 2026 $6.63 2027 $12.80 2028 $18.21 2029 $24.38 2030 $32.47 These projections assume Joby continues executing its current strategy. Delays in certification or more dilution could drove results well below these levels.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Joby Aviation's (JOBY -1.01%) electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft combine the hover capability of a helicopter with the speed of a fixed-wing airplane, using electric propulsion to transport a pilot and up to four passengers at speeds up to 200 mph with zero operating emissions.
These aircraft address urban traffic congestion by offering transit that is up to 10 times faster than driving. The urban air mobility (UAM) market could become massive. Morgan Stanley projects the UAM industry could grow to $1 trillion by 2040 and $9 trillion by 2050.
Joby's aircraft are flying now, but the company has a long road ahead. Here's when investors can expect the real revenue to begin showing up.
Image source: Joby Aviation.
Joby is taking flight in Texas and Dubai On Sept. 10, Joby kicked off a week-long flight campaign in Texas across the Dallas-Fort Worth area. These flights are part of the White House-backed Electric Vertical Takeoff and Landing Integration Pilot Program (eIPP), which lets Joby test flight corridors, noise profiles, and air traffic procedures in real metropolitan airspace under Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) oversight.
Last year, Joby completed test flights in Dubai, flying 17 minutes from Margham to Al Maktoum International Airport. It hopes to launch early passenger flights there by the end of this year. Before launching flights in Dubai, the company needs to finalize the vertiport infrastructure and secure local regulatory authorizations from the UAE General Civil Aviation Authority.
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What Joby must accomplish before commercial takeoff Initial flights are underway, but Joby still has much work ahead, including regulatory approvals and scaling manufacturing. Joby is currently in the fifth and final stage of FAA type certification, where the regulators give their stamp of approval for its aircraft. From here, the company must still gain approval to manufacture and operate its aircraft.
Joby must scale aircraft production from low-rate prototypes to commercial volumes. To overcome manufacturing bottlenecks, Joby formed a joint venture with Toyota Motor to apply automotive mass-production techniques to its aircraft assembly.
Here's when Joby starts making real revenue Joby is generating real revenue today mainly through Blade Urban Air Mobility, which it acquired for $92.4 million. The acquisition gave Joby an operational air charter brokerage, an established customer base, and infrastructure across key regions like New York City and southern Europe. In the second quarter, Blade generated $36.2 million of Joby's $38.6 million total revenue.
Initial passenger revenue is expected to start later this year or early 2027, with operations scaling from there. However, passenger revenue likely won't begin to accelerate until 2028, which depends on receiving full FAA type certification, ramping up manufacturing, and deploying fleet production into commercial ridesharing networks.
NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)---- $JOBY--Blade Urban Air Mobility, Inc. (“Blade”), a Joby Aviation company, today announced the return of BLADEone, its jet service between New York and South Florida, in partnership with Aero, the Los Angeles-based private jet airline. The seasonal jet service is expected to run from Thursday, November 19, 2026 through Sunday, May 2, 2027, with flights between Westchester County Airport (HPN) and Palm Beach's President Donald J. Trump International Airport (DJT) or Miami-Opa.
Joby Aviation sits within striking distance of its 52-week low while commercial passenger flights loom on the horizon, and that contradiction raises a question worth examining before the next certification milestone lands.
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Our 24/7 Wall St. price target for Joby Aviation (NYSE:JOBY | JOBY Price Prediction) is $11.37 over the next 12 months. With shares at $6.13 this morning, that points to about 85% upside. The model rates Joby a buy with moderate confidence.
Metric Value Current Price $6.13 Price Target from 24/7 Wall St. $11.37 Upside/Downside 85.5% Recommendation BUY Confidence Level 50% Joby is getting close to its first commercial passenger flights, and the stock trades near its 52-week low. That gap between progress and price is the opportunity. Over the next year, I’m following certification milestones and how fast the fleet grows.
Texas Air Taxi Flights Take Off While Shares Sit Near Lows The stock is down 4.81% over the past week, 12.18% over the past month and 53.56% year to date. Shares trade about 69% below their $19.98 52-week high and just 3% above the $5.93 low. The drop came even as the business moved forward.
Joby flew a five-day demonstration campaign across Dallas-Fort Worth from Sep 10-14. The flights ran under the federal eIPP program, a White House-backed effort that lets companies start early operations before full FAA certification.
In Q2, revenue came in at $38.64 million, well ahead of the $30.38 million estimate. EPS of -$0.25 missed expectations of -$0.2345. Full-year revenue guidance was raised to $115 million to $125 million.
Why Bulls See $14.55 Within Reach Our bull case lands at $14.55. Management says eIPP creates the opportunity to “monetize every single aircraft that comes off our production for the foreseeable future.” Toyota Motor (NYSE:TM)’s $250 million direct investment is expected to close later in 2026 or early next year.
Blade Air Mobility (NASDAQ:BLDE) seats sold rose more than 50% year over year, and management said aircraft availability, rather than demand, now limits many routes.
Liquidity of about $2.3 billion pays for the push to double output from 2 to 4 aircraft per month in 2027. On the Street, one strong buy and two buy ratings back that view.
Cash Burn and Dilution Could Stall the Rebound The bear case stands at $8.52. Joby expects to use $385 million to $415 million in cash in the second half of 2026. Certification testing is only 20% Joby / 10% FAA complete in Stage 4, and repeated capital raises keep diluting shareholders.
Analysts include two sell and one strong sell ratings. For context, the Q2 net loss of $245 million included a $108 million non-cash warrant revaluation, so the headline loss overstates the underlying operating decline.
Is Joby Cheaper Than Archer and EHang? Archer Aviation (NYSE:ACHR) is Joby’s closest US eVTOL rival. It trades at 564.69 times trailing sales, compared with about 53 times for Joby, since Blade gives Joby real revenue.
EHang (NASDAQ:EH) already sells autonomous aircraft. It trades at 0.863 times sales, but quarterly revenue fell 47.1% year over year. Both peers carry analyst targets far above where they trade, which makes our target look reasonable next to the group.
Company Price-to-Sales (TTM) Analyst Target Joby 53x $10.68 Archer 565x $10.61 EHang 0.9x $9.96 A 52-Week Low Price for a Company Near Commercial Launch Joby’s 24/7 Wall St. price target of $11.37 comes with a buy rating and 50% confidence. What tips the scale for me is that even the bear scenario stands above today’s price.
I’d lean in if eIPP passenger flights and Stage 4 progress keep moving on schedule. I’d wait for more evidence if cash burn runs past guidance before certification.
Joby Price Prediction 2026-2030 Year Price Target from 24/7 Wall St. 2026 (Dec.) $6.81 2027 $11.96 2028 $18.02 2029 $24.73 2030 $28.78 These projections assume Joby keeps executing on its current plan. Faster certification or delays in scaling production could drive results well above or below these levels.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
In September, Joby Aviation's (JOBY +1.67%) flying air taxis took flight in Texas as part of the Federal Aviation Administration's Electric Infrastructure and Operations Pilot Program (eIPP), demonstrating routes over major regional infrastructure.
Joby's electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) aircraft promises to change the way we travel and is inching closer to becoming widely available to the public. But is Joby Aviation stock worth investing in right now? Let's dive into the stock -- and its bull and bear cases -- to find out.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
The bull case for Joby Aviation eVTOL aircraft have become possible thanks to advances in batteries, electric motors, and other flight-enabling technologies. According to estimates from Morgan Stanley, the urban air mobility market could become a trillion-dollar industry by 2040 and be worth $9 trillion by 2050.
Joby Aviation is one of the top companies developing eVTOL aircraft and is racing toward commercial operation as it progresses through the fifth and final stage of FAA type certification. This certification determines whether its eVTOL is airworthy and is a crucial milestone for Joby to scale up and begin commercial services.
Joby is also part of the White House-backed eVTOL Integration Pilot Program (eIPP), which spans 11 states. Through eIPP oversight, operations will transition from pilot-only flights to non-paying passengers and eventually paying passengers. On Sept. 10, Joby kicked off a week of demonstration flights across the Dallas-Fort Worth region, including direct flights to major urban hubs and Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport.
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After acquiring Blade Urban Air Mobility, Joby is beginning to generate revenue. Blade provides chartered helicopter and jet flights to customers. Joby spent $125 million to acquire the company, gaining an established customer base and a decade of air-charter experience across key markets. Blade generated $36.2 million in revenue in the second quarter.
The bear case for Joby Aviation Joby has made significant progress, but must still work through the final stages of FAA type certification. Once Joby proves the airworthiness of its aircraft, it must prove it can manufacture and operate them at scale. Joby's in-house manufacturing requires more capital and labor than rival Archer Aviation's contract manufacturing approach. Joby has 12 aircraft in production but expects to deliver two in 2026.
Joby is burning substantial capital. During the second quarter, the eVTOL developer reported a net loss of $245 million, and it projects cash burn of $385 million to $415 million in the second half of this year. Since its founding, Joby has accumulated a deficit of $3.1 billion.
JOBY Revenue (TTM) data by YCharts
Even after its eVTOL aircraft are approved, commercial adoption rates remain uncertain. While eVTOLs can reduce travel times, consumer concerns could delay widespread public adoption.
Is Joby Aviation stock right for you? Joby Aviation is an early-stage company developing a new method of transportation. Last year, the stock reached nearly $20 per share, and today it is down 70% from that high. Right now, Joby is a high-risk, narrative-driven stock, as investors look for it to achieve FAA certification and begin performing more passenger flights.
If you believe in the future of flying taxis and Joby Aviation's role in it, and don't mind the extreme price swings, Joby stock could be for you. But if you do decide to buy, expect significant volatility and make sure your investment is part of a broadly diversified portfolio.
Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of JOBY either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.
Joby Aviation has lost more than half its value in 2026, yet analysts see a path back above $10 and bulls are eyeing $12 by next year. The question is whether a handful of upcoming catalysts can close that gap…
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Joby Aviation (NYSE:JOBY | JOBY Price Prediction) has had a brutal 2026. Shares are down 52.73% year-to-date and off 62.68% over the past year, sliding from a 52-week high of $19.98 to roughly $6.24. The pullback reflects impatience with FAA certification timing and heavy cash burn.
CEO JoeBen Bevirt still frames 2026 as the year Joby is “unlocking the third dimension of mobility and turning electric vertical flight from an extraordinary technology into an everyday reality.”
Let’s walk through what it would take for JOBY to reach $12 per share in 2027.
Wall Street Is Split, but the Average Target Sits Well Above Spot The consensus analyst price target is $10.68, implying meaningful upside from current levels. Coverage is genuinely mixed: 1 Strong Buy, 2 Buys, 5 Holds, 2 Sells and 1 Strong Sell.
What the bears are missing is the revenue trajectory. Trailing revenue reached $116.3 million, up 2,574.93% year over year, and Joby has beaten revenue estimates in 3 of the last 3 quarters, including an 82.66% beat in Q4 2025 and a 27.18% beat in Q2 2026. Management raised full-year 2026 guidance to $115 million.
Path to $12: Here Is the Math Joby is unprofitable, so traditional P/E is useless. On price-to-sales, the stock trades at 53.54x trailing revenue. At $12, with roughly 993.87 million shares outstanding, market cap would be near $12 billion.
Layer in 2027 revenue scaling toward $250-$300 million as Blade grows and eVTOL commercial flights begin, and the implied multiple compresses meaningfully, even at the higher price. That is the setup bulls need.
What could push JOBY to $12?
First revenue flights: Joby plans first EIDP flights in Texas in September 2026 across Dallas-Fort Worth, progressing to paying passengers. Certification progress: Type Certification Stage 3 is at 83% Joby / 77% FAA, with five conforming aircraft flying and 12 more in production. Toyota capital and manufacturing: A $250 million direct investment is expected to close late 2026 or early 2027, plus a JV for high-volume production. Blade demand: Q2 seats sold jumped over 50% year over year, with aircraft availability now the binding constraint. International launches: Dubai passenger service under a 6-year exclusive market agreement, plus Virgin Atlantic in the UK. Liquidity cushion: Roughly $2.3 billion in cash and short-term investments funds the ramp. History Shows JOBY Can Move Fast in Either Direction With a beta of 2.683 and a 52-week range of $5.93 to $19.98, JOBY moves in double-digit percentages routinely. The stock traded near $15.36 as recently as November 2025, so $12 would be a reversion to where the market already valued the story less than a year ago.
A model weighted to the analyst target projects a base case of $11.37 and a bull case of $14.55 by September 2027.
Verdict on $12 by 2027 Hitting $12 would require roughly a double from today. That is ambitious, but Joby already trades well below its own recent range, analysts already peg fair value near $10.68, and 2027 is set up as the year commercial revenue begins scaling behind Toyota’s capital and the EIPP flight program.
The hurdles are real: certification timing, $385M-$415M in H2 2026 cash burn, and continued share issuance. Returns at this level should not be assumed every year, but I have outlined the blueprint for how JOBY could see outsized returns in 2027.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Joby Aviation (JOBY +0.40%) is on a roll. Or should I say ... gaining altitude?
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Puns aside, Joby kicked off its long-awaited electric air taxi demonstrations across Dallas-Fort Worth, Texas, this month, including routes into the airspace of Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport. This follows demonstrations that Joby has conducted in other major areas, namely the San Francisco Bay Area and New York City.
Image source: Joby Aviation.
These flights are not, to be sure, commercial. Joby isn't booking revenue from them.
At the same time, they serve a major purpose for the electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) industry. The Dallas-Fort Worth airport is one of the country's busiest hubs, making it an ideal testing ground for whether eVTOLs can coexist with other aircraft in a crowded sky. This, in turn, will give the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) valuable data to help it create safety rules that eVTOL companies need to start flying paying passengers.
That said, Joby has not set a firm date for launching commercial eVTOL services. The company stated in its second-quarter shareholder letter that it continues to "target carrying our first passengers in 2026." Whether those will be paying passengers or not has not been specified. But if Joby does carry riders in 2026 -- paying or not -- it would be a clear signal that commercial eVTOL services could be near.
Steven Porrello has positions in Joby Aviation. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Joby Aviation (JOBY -1.40%) is aiming for the skies.
If you've ever missed a flight or an important meeting because you got stuck in city traffic, you might understand the problem Joby is trying to solve. In a nutshell, it wants to introduce a new form of transportation, one that can soar through the air like a helicopter, but with far less noise and downwash, and powered by batteries.
Never has Joby been closer to its dream of operating electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft than it is today. Yet its stock has tanked in 2026: Shares have lost more than half their value year to date, and are trading about 67% lower than their 52-week high.
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The company has made impressive progress in 2026. But has it done enough to become a stock you can buy with confidence?
The biggest changes in Joby in 2026 Joby has manifestly become a different company. Not fundamentally different (it is still designing eVTOLs), but developmentally, it has advanced so much in 2026 that one might even argue that it's slightly ahead of what was expected of it.
A list of advancements would have to include its flight demonstrations in New York and Texas, its updated manufacturing alliance with Toyota, its agreement to acquirement defense technology company Resonant Sciences for about $500 million, and its testing of conforming aircraft as it progresses through the FAA's fifth and final stage for Type Inspection Authorization.
Image source: Joby Aviation.
Joby also generated about $36 million in revenue last quarter, mainly through its passenger helicopter business, Blade. It's sitting on about $2.3 billion in cash and short-term investments, and it expects to use roughly $400 million or so in the second half of 2026.
None of these points changes the fact that Joby still lacks the regulatory approval to operate its air taxi service commercially, nor that it's burning through about $200 million each quarter.
Should you buy Joby below $7? Joby is no longer a wildly speculative stock. That's good news for shareholders. The stock is less risky, and the company is manifestly more advanced in its aviation technology, despite the stock price having a rough year.
As far as whether or not you should buy Joby now, I would consider two things.
The first is how Joby looks as a long-term investment opportunity. I would not expect much from this stock over the next five years. That's not because Joby's eVTOL won't get FAA type certification, or anything like that. It's because, even with certification, Joby will need time to scale up its eVTOL fleet. It will also need time for consumers to try the service, trust the aircraft, and build air taxis into their travel habits. Again, I don't see any of this happening soon.
The nature of aviation itself might impose a ceiling on Joby's growth. Joby's eVTOLs will carry a maximum of four passengers, and even if we assume maximum utilization on each flight, certain uncontrollable factors like weather and maintenance could still interrupt flight schedules. And if an eVTOL has an accident, whether due to technological failures or human error, that could set back consumer adoption of such platforms for years.
If you have time and an appetite for the unknown, Joby stock might be an opportunity at $7 per share. Otherwise, you might want to look elsewhere for your next growth stock.
Key Takeaways Joby Aviation completed a 3,199-mile autonomous U.S. flight with no onboard pilot control inputs.JOBY's aircraft handled taxiing, takeoffs, navigation and landings under remote supervision.Joby Aviation's autonomy technology is backed by more than 400 flights and 800 automated flight hours. Joby Aviation, Inc. (JOBY - Free Report) is grabbing everyone’s attention with its latest announcement related to automation aviation expansion. To this end, Joby Aviation recently announced the successful execution of its first-ever autonomous flight across the United States. The aircraft flew 3,199 miles with zero control inputs from its onboard safety pilot and concluded the eastbound leg of its month-long tour in North Carolina’s Outer Banks.
The aircraft equipped with its autonomy technology is a converted Cessna Caravan. The aircraft has carried out autonomous taxiing, takeoffs, route navigation and landings under remote supervision from JOBY’s Autonomy Headquarters in California and Shaw Air Force Base in South Carolina, up to 2,323 miles away. The journey reflected the operational capabilities of JOBY’s autonomy technology across a variety of environments while boosting applications in commercial freight, medical transport, disaster response and defense logistics.
During the cross-country journey, the aircraft proved its potential to easily integrate into high-density environments like Phoenix Deer Valley (a busy general aviation airport) while rerouting around severe weather and thunderstorms in real time with no prior airport familiarity.
As part of Joby Aviation’s 2026 Electric Skies tour, the eastbound leg featured flight demonstrations, logistics showcases and key operational milestones across the following stops, namely, Concord, CA (KCCR), Phoenix, AZ (KDVT), Fort Worth, TX (KAFW), Shaw Air Force Base, SC (KSSC) and Outer Banks, NC (KMQI). The aircraft plans to start its return westbound journey, which includes stops in Raleigh (KRDU), Fredericksburg/Washington, D.C. (KRMN), Louisville (KSDF), Wichita (KICT), Oklahoma City (KOKC), Salt Lake City (KSLC), and Portland (KPDX).
Built on the mature autonomy stack purchased from Xwing in 2024, Joby Aviation’s autonomous technology is grounded in more than 400 flights and 800 automated flight hours in controlled and uncontrolled airspace. JOBY plans to provide a scalable path to autonomous air logistics through the merger of an autonomous system onto an already-certified airframe.
JoeBen Bevirt, founder and chief executive officer of Joby Aviation, stated, “This journey across America offers a glimpse into a new era of aviation. Autonomy has an important role to play in the future of flight, allowing us to connect remote communities, deliver critical supplies, respond faster to disasters, support military operations, and keep pilots out of harm’s way.”
Zacks Rank and Stocks to ConsiderJoby Aviation carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
Investors interested in the Zacks Transportation sector may consider Seanergy Maritime Holdings (SHIP - Free Report) and Schneider National, Inc. (SNDR - Free Report) .
Seanergy Maritime Holdings currently sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
SHIP has an expected earnings growth rate of more than 100% for the current year. The company has an encouraging earnings surprise history. Its earnings topped the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, delivering an average beat of 38%.
Schneider presently carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy).
Schneider has an expected earnings growth rate of 65.08% for the current year. Schneider’s earnings outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the trailing four quarters (missed the mark in the remaining two quarters), delivering an average miss of 10.01%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Schneider’s full-year earnings has moved 14.29% north in the past 60 days.
The aviation landscape is shifting as decarbonization and urban mobility take flight. Should you back the legacy power of GE Aerospace (GE +1.51%) or the disruptive potential of Joby Aviation (JOBY +4.74%)?
GE Aerospace has reinvented itself as a specialized aerospace leader, focusing on jet engines and defense systems. Joby Aviation is a younger rival aiming to revolutionize short-distance travel with its all-electric air taxis. Both companies offer investors a distinct choice between proven industrial stability and speculative high-growth potential.
The case for GE AerospaceGE Aerospace has transitioned into a specialized engine manufacturer, making it a prominent name among defense stocks and commercial aviation providers. In its latest annual report, filed for the fiscal year ended Dec. 31, 2025, the company detailed its focus on jet and turboprop engines for commercial and military aircraft. The business serves customers in roughly 120 countries and manages a massive installed base of engines that generates recurring service revenue.
In FY 2025, revenue reached nearly $45.9 billion, representing growth of approximately 18.5% over the $38.7 billion recorded in FY 2024. The company reported net income of close to $8.7 billion for the same period. This indicates a net margin of roughly 19%, which measures how much profit a company keeps for every dollar of sales.
As of its December 2025 balance sheet, GE Aerospace reported a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.1x. This ratio compares a company's total debt to its shareholder equity, showing how much it relies on borrowed money. The current ratio, which measures the ability to pay short-term obligations, was 1.0x, and the company generated roughly $7.3 billion in free cash flow, which is the cash remaining after a company pays for its operations and capital investments.
The case for Joby AviationJoby Aviation is building an all-electric vertical take-off and landing service to transform urban transportation in markets like New York City and Southern Europe. In its latest annual report, filed for the fiscal year ended Dec. 31, 2025, the company reported having over 2,500 employees. It has secured strategic manufacturing support from Toyota Motor Corporation and maintains defense contracts with L3Harris Technologies (LHX -0.15%).
In FY 2025, revenue reached approximately $53.4 million, representing a sharp increase from the $136,000 reported in FY 2024. Despite this growth, Joby recorded a net loss of nearly $929.8 million as it continues to invest heavily in aircraft development and manufacturing. Its net margin was approximately -1,740.5%, reflecting the high costs of scaling an early-stage transportation company.
As of its December 2025 balance sheet, the current ratio stood at close to 24.1x, indicating significant liquidity for near-term expenses. The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.0x, as its total liabilities are minimal compared to its equity. Free cash flow was roughly negative $563.8 million for the fiscal year, and the company relies on equity tranches and strategic investments to fund its ongoing operations.
Risk profile comparisonGE Aerospace faces risks related to supply chain constraints that could slow down engine production and delivery. Economic downturns frequently impact the commercial aviation sector, potentially reducing demand for new aircraft and maintenance services. The company also operates in a highly competitive defense environment where government budget shifts can impact multi-year contracts.
Joby faces significant regulatory hurdles as it seeks final FAA type certification for its aircraft. Any delays in securing these authorizations could postpone the commercial launch of its air-taxi service. The company also competes with rivals like Archer Aviation (ACHR +3.23%) and faces the challenge of building out the necessary infrastructure for its urban networks, such as landing pads. Financial risks include dependencies on investment tranches from Toyota Motor Corporation.
Valuation comparisonGE Aerospace trades on its Forward P/E, which compares price to future earnings estimates, while Joby Aviation is valued by its P/S ratio, measuring price against sales.
MetricGeneral ElectricJoby AviationForward P/E39.7xn/aP/S ratio7.1x112.7xValuation metrics sourced from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP) and may differ from other data providers.
Both of these stocks are compelling investments and offer investors two ways to invest in the future of aviation. As with many other investment choices, it comes down to whether you prefer proven returns or a greater opportunity for long-term upside. Here's why.
GE Aerospace is an established, profitable company with a long history of producing equipment for commercial air travel and military defense, a sector with steady demand. It already has an enormous number of engines in use, which generates recurring service revenue. The company rewards its investors with steady earnings and dividends. But its shares trade at a premium, and its business is vulnerable to supply chain issues.
Joby is more of a speculative investment because its core product isn't in widespread use yet. It is developing electric verticle takeoff and landing aircraft for air taxi service. The company has been making meaningful progress toward commercializing this product, but it's awaiting FAA certification -- and even then, its success depends on consumer adoption of its vehicles. In the meantime, it's burning cash on product development and manufacturing.
So, while neither stock is risk-free, GE remains the more proven business and offers the best balance of earnings versus risk. Joby's future appears bright, but I would only consider a small, speculative position in a diverse portfolio.
No U.S. company is closer to commercializing an electric air taxi than Joby Aviation (JOBY -1.13%). And yet in a market that is one of the most expensive in history, Joby's stock has been moving in the opposite direction.
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There isn't one reason Joby stock has lost over half its value on the year. Most likely, cash burn, dilution, rising operating expenses, uncertainty around its FAA type certification, and a blistering-high valuation have collectively cooled Wall Street's enthusiasm. Add to that stubborn inflation, rising bond yields, geopolitical turmoil, and now an interest rate hike, and investors have plenty of reasons to shy away from a speculative growth stock like Joby.
If you're looking for a safe, secure, and relatively stable stock, Joby is probably not for you. But for aggressive investors who are willing to risk substantial downside in pursuit of potentially massive returns, here's why Joby might be a stock to watch in 2027.
Joby could be selling tickets to paying passengers soon For years, Joby has been developing its own style of electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft. The idea is to shuttle passengers along routes that are typically heavily trafficked by road traffic. Joby is targeting places where time is money -- like New York City -- and where saving an hour or so in the air could be worth the premium such a flight might cost.
Image source: Joby Aviation.
We don't yet know how much these tickets will cost, because Joby is still waiting for government approval to fly paying passengers. But that information could be available soon, as Joby is set to begin operations across 11 states in 2026 ahead of full FAA type certification.
These pre-certification flights could give Joby something almost as valuable as regulatory approval: real-world flight experience. Over time, the program will progress from carrying only a pilot to shuttling nonpaying passengers and eventually paying passengers.
Don't miss that last part. If everything goes right, Joby could be putting paying passengers in the air as early as 2027.
Cash burn remains a weak spot To be sure, revenue from these early eIPP flights probably wouldn't amount to much, at least not relative to its cash burn. At the same time, Joby is no longer the pre-revenue company that it once was.
Joby expects between $115 million and $125 million in total revenue this year, largely thanks to its acquisition of Blade Air Mobility, which generated roughly $36 million last quarter. Meanwhile, Resonant Sciences, a defense business Joby plans to acquire, generated more than $100 million in trailing revenue.
These two sources, plus revenue from pre-certification passenger flights, could help offset Joby's enormous cash burn. Indeed, analysts now expect Joby's revenue base to generate almost half a billion dollars by 2028.
Data by YCharts
At the same time, I can understand the arguments against investing in Joby if you don't have a long time horizon. Jim Cramer, host of Mad Money, summed it up best when he said, "I've been against Joby because it's losing a lot of money... It's an interesting spec, but I would not put my money in it."
If today's cash burn makes you uncomfortable, you might want to avoid Joby, too. However, if you have time on your side, picking up a few shares after this year's brutal sell-off could prove shrewd in hindsight.
Joby Aviation (JOBY) shares fell about 2% in morning trading Friday even after the company completed a cross-country autonomous flight, showing that investors r
Joby Aviation has lost more than half its value over the past year, yet our model puts fair value nearly double the current price. The question is whether the certification and commercial flight timeline holds long enough to close that…
Joby Aviation is one of the most polarizing names in aerospace, and after a rough year for the stock, our proprietary model still sees meaningful upside from here.
Joby Aviation (NYSE:JOBY | JOBY Price Prediction) trades at $6.26 as of this morning, and our 24/7 Wall St. price target puts fair value materially higher over the next 12 months. The company is still burning cash and still pre-certification on its core eVTOL, but the setup into commercial flight is the most tangible it has ever been.
24/7 Wall St. Price Target Summary Metric Value Current Price $6.26 24/7 Wall St. Price Target $11.37 Upside 87.1% Recommendation BUY Confidence Level 50% Our 24/7 Wall St. price target for Joby is $11.37, implying 87.1% upside. Confidence is medium at 50%, which fits a pre-revenue eVTOL story where the outcome distribution is genuinely wide.
We rate the stock a buy, but this is a risk-on position sized accordingly (we wrote a whole free playbook on speculating with just 5% of a portfolio, here).
Down Sharply, but the Setup Is Improving JOBY is down 52.57% year-to-date and 56.49% over the past year, trading well below the $19.98 52-week high.
Q2 was actually strong operationally. Revenue came in at $38.64M vs $30.38M consensus, and management raised FY26 revenue guidance to $115M to $125M.
On the earnings call, CEO JoeBen Bevirt said Joby is “now at the point where we’re preparing for commercial service” with first EIPP flights in Dallas-Fort Worth targeted for this month. A recent Forbes piece asked whether JOBY is mispriced ahead of commercial flight, and the model agrees the gap has widened.
Bull Case: $14 and Higher If FAA certification progresses on the current arc and EIPP flights ramp on schedule, JOBY’s optionality gets repriced quickly. Stage 4 certification has moved from 6% to 20% on the Joby side, and Bevirt says “the core constraint we’re facing on many routes is now aircraft availability rather than passenger demand.”
Blade seats sold were up over 50% year-over-year in Q2. Toyota’s $250 million direct investment, the Virgin Atlantic UK partnership, and the Dubai vertiport network all support upside. Our bull-case one-year projection is $14.55.
What Could Go Wrong The bear case is straightforward. Joby’s operating margin is -1,346.92%, and H2 2026 cash use is guided to $385M to $415M. Certification timing remains uncertain, and prior capital raises ($1.2B in February, $576M in October 2025) show real dilution risk. Insider activity trends net selling.
Bulls would counter that ugly GAAP numbers include a $108M non-cash warrant/earnout revaluation, and that spending is deliberately “disciplined and milestone-driven.” Our bear-case one-year projection is $8.52, still above where the stock trades today.
How Joby Compares to Archer and Textron Archer Aviation (NYSE:ACHR) is the cleanest direct comp. Archer carries a $4.02 billion market cap versus Joby’s $6.04B, and posted just $5 million in Q2 revenue against Joby’s $38.64M (thanks to Blade). Joby’s revenue base makes our target look reasonable relative to Archer’s premium.
Textron (NYSE:TXT) is the mature aviation benchmark. Textron guides FY26 adjusted EPS of $6.40 to $6.60 on a $8 billion Aviation backlog. That contrast shows how far Joby must travel, but also how much room exists in the electric segment Textron just dissolved as a standalone unit.
Joby Aviation Price Prediction 2026-2030 The 24/7 Wall St. price target is $11.37, the recommendation is buy, and confidence is 50%. The scale-tipper is that even the model’s bear case sits above today’s price.
The bullish thesis rests on FAA Stage 4 continuing to progress and EIPP flights beginning as planned this month. The bearish thesis takes hold if certification slips into 2027 or the next capital raise arrives before revenue meaningfully scales.
Year 24/7 Wall St. Price Target 2026 $7.28 2027 $12.79 2028 $19.70 2029 $25.37 2030 $30.64 These projections assume Joby executes on certification, manufacturing ramp, and EIPP monetization. Meaningful upside or downside could come from FAA timing, hydrogen propulsion progress, or another dilutive raise.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
An aircraft equipped with Joby Aviation’s autonomy technology flew more than 3,100 miles across the United States without a human pilot taking control at any point, the company said Friday.
The flight not only demonstrated the capabilities of Joby’s autonomy tech, but also showed that the company’s ambitions extend well beyond its pursuit of electric air taxis. Joby said the autonomous aircraft it’s not done yet, and will make its way back to the West Coast with stops in various cities, including Louisville, Kentucky, and Salt Lake City, over the next two weeks.
Joby Aviation said the cross-country trip, which it described as the “first-ever autonomous flight across the United States,” included autonomous taxiing, takeoffs, navigation, and landings. The aircraft was remotely supervised from Joby’s headquarters in California and Shaw Air Force Base in South Carolina. A pilot was on board for compliance, but Joby said the aircraft performed the entire operation autonomously.
Joby, which used a converted Cessna Caravan aircraft for the trip, said the flight demonstrated that its autonomy technology could handle different environments and missions, including medical transport, disaster response, and defense logistics.
It also showcased the potential for a second business for Joby, which is best known for developing electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft for an eventual urban air taxi service. Joby has spent years developing and seeking type certification from the Federal Aviation Administration for its all-electric vertical take-off and landing aircraft, which will be used to carry passengers on short trips in urban areas.
While Joby’s electric air taxi service gets much of the attention, the company has a longstanding relationship with the U.S. Department of Defense and is increasingly pushing deeper into the military sector.
Its autonomy stack, which is designed to be retrofitted onto a wide range of conventional aircraft, is part of that strategy. The company plans to first bring to market a regional airframe equipped with the autonomy stack, which could be used for defense missions as well as commercial freight transport. That effort has been supported by a $17 million Air Force contract with AFWERX.
Joby took its most meaningful step into defense in August when it acquired Resonant Sciences for $500 million in cash and stock. Ohio-based Resonant Sciences, which makes radio frequency and sensor systems, is now part of a dedicated defense business within Joby that includes several projects such as the development of turbine-electric and hydrogen-electric aircraft, and an autonomy technology stack.
Last year, Joby signed an agreement with defense contractor L3Harris Technologies to “explore opportunities” to develop a new class of aircraft — specifically, a gas-turbine hybrid vertical take-off and landing aircraft that can fly autonomously — for defense applications.
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Kirsten Korosec is a reporter and editor who has covered the future of transportation from EVs and autonomous vehicles to urban air mobility and in-car tech for more than a decade. She is currently the transportation editor at TechCrunch and co-host of TechCrunch’s Equity podcast. She is also co-founder and co-host of the podcast, “The Autonocast.” She previously wrote for Fortune, The Verge, Bloomberg, MIT Technology Review and CBS Interactive.
You can contact or verify outreach from Kirsten by emailing [email protected] or via encrypted message at kkorosec.07 on Signal.
Joby Aviation shed a fifth of its value in a month without a single company announcement to explain it, and the reason buried in the peer data changes everything about how shareholders should respond.
After another rough month, Joby Aviation (NYSE:JOBY | JOBY Price Prediction) holders can see the pressure was a category move rather than a company-specific stumble. Joby stock is down 20% over the past month to $6.09, extending a slide that also runs 54% year to date (YTD). Shares are off 2% in Friday afternoon trading.
The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY) fell just 1% over the past month, while electric air taxi peers moved with Joby. Meanwhile, Archer Aviation (NYSE:ACHR) stock is down 16% over the same window to $5.30. EHang (NASDAQ:EH) shares are down 19% to $4.57, matching the pattern.
No clean electric air taxi sector fund exists, so the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust carries the period comparison here. That distinction matters, because a Joby shareholder reading the last month in isolation may see a company problem where the wider tape shows a category problem.
What the Peer Pattern Shows Joby issued no company announcement in this window. There was no earnings release, no certification update and no partnership news to explain the move, and Joby stock still shed roughly a fifth of its value over the month. That silence is the story.
The reading gets clearer when Archer and EHang are set beside Joby. Both fell over the same month, and neither had a Joby-specific catalyst to point to. The market re-rated the entire electric air taxi category rather than singling out Joby’s prospects.
Why Rates Matter Here Joby, like its peers, is essentially pre-revenue on core air taxi operations, so the value of the business sits in cash flows expected years from now.
A higher rate path lowers what those distant cash flows are worth today. That is the standing macro reason the electric air taxi group sells off together, and it explains why the broad market fund barely moved while Joby, Archer and EHang all fell in step.
Weighing Sell Against Hold for Joby Joby stock fell this far without company news, which means the market is repricing its willingness to fund distant promises rather than reacting to anything Joby’s management controls. Add the 54% YTD drawdown, and Joby holders face a trend that predates this week’s rate move.
If the rate cycle stays restrictive, the cost of waiting for Joby’s core commercial launch keeps climbing. Holders who don’t want to fund years of cash burn through that backdrop may prefer to trim their exposure and wait for a clearer path.
A bullish read uses the same fact in reverse. Joby’s decline was a category re-rating, and category re-ratings can reverse on sentiment as readily as they arrived. Nothing in Joby’s own operations changed to justify a drop of that size over four weeks.
Softening rate expectations could let Joby stock snap back alongside the peer group. That is the wager Joby Aviation’s shareholders make when they choose not to sell on a decline driven by outside conditions.
What to Watch Now Traders can watch for whether Archer and EHang shares stabilize alongside Joby, since a peer-wide bottom would confirm the category read. The next Joby earnings release, along with any signal on the rate path, could shape whether this month’s move extends or reverses. Investors’ position sizing should reflect that Joby stock carries category-wide macro sensitivity, not just company-specific risk.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
SANTA CRUZ, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)---- $JOBY--Joby Aviation, Inc. (NYSE: JOBY) today announced that an aircraft equipped with its autonomy technology has completed the first-ever autonomous flight across the United States. The aircraft flew 3,199 miles with zero control inputs from its onboard safety pilot, concluding the eastbound leg of its month-long tour in North Carolina's Outer Banks, near the site of the Wright brothers' first powered flight. The aircraft, a converted Cessna Caravan, performed au.
A company that grows 100-fold rarely looks like a 100-bagger at the beginning. Usually, it is small and unproven, with a business (or an idea for a business) that's hard to imagine and easy to dismiss.
Often, these companies became indisputable leaders. For example, Nvidia's and Microsoft's stocks have both produced over 10,000% returns throughout their lifetimes.
Joby Aviation (JOBY +1.81%) is not a 100-bagger. The stock has traded in the red since its 2021 market debut and has fallen over 55% since last year. And yet if history tells us anything, it's that companies like Joby deliver monster returns over decades.
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In a nutshell, Joby is trying to commercialize its electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft. This aircraft, also called an air taxi, would function like an Uber in the sky, transporting passengers to airports or destinations across cities. Joby is expecting people to choose its air taxi over traditional transportation, like cars and buses, because a short hop could turn a long drive through traffic into a much quicker trip.
Most 100-baggers have a long runway, meaning a massive total addressable market (TAM), and that's what makes Joby particularly interesting. In a 2021 report, Morgan Stanley research once estimated that the global eVTOL market could reach $9 trillion by 2050. Even if Joby captured a sliver of that opportunity, it would grow into the much larger company it is today.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
"Capture a sliver of the opportunity" seems like an understatement, however, as Joby is the front-runner of the eVTOL market in the U.S. It has logged more flight miles than its competitors and is further along in the FAA's certification process. Indeed, if eVTOLs catch on, Joby would be well positioned to benefit.
For Joby to turn into a 100-bagger, it needs to commercialize and scale its air taxi. That could be years, if not decades, away. If you're prepared to wait that long, this stock's long-term gains could be extraordinary.
Steven Porrello has positions in Joby Aviation and Nvidia. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Microsoft and Nvidia. The Motley Fool recommends Uber Technologies. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
If Joby Aviation (JOBY -0.82%) ever grows into the business it is trying to build, today's price will probably look like a footnote. The stock is trading near $6.40, its 52‑week low, and well below the one-year high of just under $20. That means $500 today buys roughly 78 shares. If the market simply decided Joby deserved to trade back at $20 in three years, those same shares would be worth about $1,560.
That is the math. Let's get into what the company does.
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Joby is finally flying where it matters For years, Joby's aircraft ideas lived on test ranges where the only neighbors were birds and engineers. Joby is building electric air taxis that can turn hours-long ground trips into 10-minute flights. Joby used to be one of the "if only" companies that investors would look at and dream of its potential. I think all that is starting to change.
In March, the White House enrolled Joby in a new federal pilot program that allows "mature" electric air-taxi designs to fly in real U.S. airspace before full certification. Joby was picked from several winning applications, with the chance to start early operations in 10 states, including Texas, Florida, New York, and California.
Image source: Joby Aviation.
Under the program, Joby gets to run its aircraft along real routes with the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) watching, including at major airports like Dallas-Fort Worth International. Every trip generates data on noise, safety, and how the aircraft fits into crowded skies. That data is exactly what regulators need to write the rulebook for commercial service. To me, that is a big deal. It moves Joby out of the "science project" phase and into the "prove it in the real world" phase.
The FAA process is in the final lane Electric air taxis do not get to skip the same safety process regular airliners follow. Joby has been working through the FAA's certification system for years. The company now has its first fully conforming aircraft -- built the same way future customer aircraft will be built -- flying under FAA oversight.
Joby says it has completed three of five stages and is in the last one, which the FAA calls "Show and Verify." This is the part where federal test pilots fly the actual aircraft and double-check that it behaves the way Joby promised throughout every phase of flight. If you are thinking about where the business could be in three years, this is the clock to watch. A type certificate is the wall between "sci-fi prototype" and "legal to sell rides."
Joby has real partners Joby is not trying to build its own airline from scratch. In 2022, Delta Air Lines (DAL -1.29%) agreed to a multi-year partnership in which Joby would operate the aircraft, and Delta would integrate the service into its app and customer channels, starting in New York and Los Angeles. Delta has already invested $60 million in Joby, with the option to increase it to $200 million if milestones are met.
That partnership makes me more comfortable viewing Joby as an investment because Delta's backing gives the company credibility with a major airline and a potential path to scale. While the deal is several years old, having a major brand already invested creates a stronger foundation for future partnerships, additional capital, or even potential acquisition interest.
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What $500 could look like in three years At today's price near $6.40 per share, $500 will buy around 78 shares of Joby. If the company wins its type certificate, gets real routes running with partners like Delta, and convinces investors it can scale those routes without constant hiccups, it is reasonable to think the market could reward that progress with a higher valuation.
If the stock simply revisits the top of its recent range around $20, those 78 shares would be worth over $1,500 on paper. Keep an eye on some stock dips into the new year to improve your average, and that $1,500 could be closer to $2,000. That's not a bad investment.
Joby Aviation has lost more than half its value this year, yet five aircraft are flying, a Toyota factory deal is closing, and FAA certification keeps advancing. Whether JOBY can reach $12 in 2027 depends entirely on a single regulatory…
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Joby Aviation (NYSE:JOBY | JOBY Price Prediction) has had a punishing 2026. Shares are down 53.56% year-to-date and 56.59% over the past year, after touching the mid-teens in late 2025. Yet the underlying business has quietly matured.
CEO JoeBen Bevirt told investors on the Q2 call that Joby is “unlocking the third dimension of mobility and turning electric vertical flight from an extraordinary technology into an everyday reality.”
With five air taxis flying, a Toyota manufacturing JV, and FAA certification advancing, the setup for a rebound is here. Let’s look at what it would take for JOBY to hit $12 per share in 2027.
Wall Street Sees Meaningful Upside From Here The analyst consensus 1-year target sits at $10.68, implying 74.23% upside from the recent close of $6.13. Ratings are split: 3 buys, 5 holds, and 3 sells. The bulls point to Blade’s momentum and certification progress; the skeptics point to cash burn.
Joby also beat revenue estimates in each of the last three quarters, most recently posting $38.6 million against a $30.38 million consensus, and management raised full-year 2026 revenue guidance to between $115 million and $125 million.
Path to $12 Per Share Since Joby is pre-revenue on its core eVTOL business, price-to-sales is the right lens. On the $120 million guidance midpoint, the current $6.09 billion market cap is roughly 50x forward sales.
At $12, JOBY would trade near 100x. That looks steep, but it becomes defensible the moment the FAA signs off and the aircraft starts generating revenue.
What could push JOBY to $12?
FAA type certification progress. Stage 3 is at 83% Joby / 77% FAA and Stage 4 at 20% Joby / 10% FAA, with five conforming aircraft flying and 12 more in production. eIPP commercial launch. First eIPP flights are set for September in the Dallas-Fort Worth area, with paying passengers targeted in 2026. Toyota JV and Ohio ramp. Toyota’s $250 million direct investment is expected to close by early 2027, backing a Dayton facility built to double production from 2 to 4 aircraft per month in 2027. Blade is compounding. Q2 Blade revenue reached $36.2 million with seats flown up more than 50% year-over-year. International and defense. Dubai launch under a six-year exclusive, a Virgin Atlantic UK partnership, and a $9 billion FY26 U.S. Department of War budget request for autonomous/hybrid aircraft all widen the addressable market. Joby’s Volatility Says $12 Is in the Range A move from $6.13 to $12 would roughly double the stock. JOBY has done that repeatedly since its 2021 SPAC merger, with shares reaching $15.36 as recently as November 2025.
The stock still trades 28.72% below its price five years ago, so $12 would simply recover ground already covered during prior eVTOL enthusiasm cycles. A name this volatile belongs in the speculative sleeve of a portfolio, sized with rules (we laid out a full playbook for speculating with just 5% of a portfolio in a free guide: here).
Bottom Line: $12 Hinges on One Question The bull case for Joby comes down to whether the FAA signs off and commercial operations scale before cash gets tight. Management guided $385 million to $415 million of second-half 2026 cash use against roughly $2.3 billion in liquidity, giving Joby runway to execute.
If certification advances, eIPP passenger flights begin on schedule, and Toyota’s capital lands, $12 in 2027 becomes credible. Returns at this level shouldn’t be expected every year, but we’ve outlined the blueprint for how Joby could see outsized returns in 2027.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
FARNBOROUGH, ENGLAND - JULY 23: A Joby Aviation all-electric air taxi eVTOL is displayed at Farnborough International Exhibition Centre on July 22, 2026 in Farnborough, England. Farnborough International Airshow 2026 hosts leading innovators from the aerospace, aviation and defence industries. (Photo by Carl Court/Getty Images)
Getty Images
This article was written by Doug Nathman, with research by his team at Trefis.
Joby Aviation (JOBY) stock is down about 54% over the last twelve months. It now sits about 68% below its 52-week high. The company’s electric air taxi remains in the last stage of type certification. Yet the part of Joby that could re-rate the stock first is already flying paying passengers.
Who Pays Joby For Flights Right Now?Joby acquired Blade’s passenger business roughly a year ago. Blade flies paying passengers today, on New York airport runs and on expanded Hamptons routes. In the second quarter of 2026, Blade sold over 50% more seats than a year earlier. The summer ramp and major events helped, and on that measure it was the best Q2 Blade has recorded. Blade’s first-half revenue rose 32% year over year. The company then lifted its full-year 2026 revenue guidance to a range of $115 million to $125 million.
By the company’s own account, what limits many of those routes is the number of aircraft available, not a lack of passengers. Blade’s product is time saved, and it does not have enough aircraft to deliver it. Joby’s own aircraft are meant to solve that problem. And Joby is participating in FAA-sanctioned operational frameworks, such as the eIPP, to demonstrate flights ahead of full commercial type certification.
How Does Joby Plan To Carry Passengers Before It Is Certified?The route is the eIPP. That is a pilot program backed by the White House, which the FAA runs with individual states. In September 2026, Joby started a week-long campaign of flights around the Dallas-Fort Worth region, with some flights going into the airport itself. The program advances step by step: first pilots only, then passengers who do not pay, then passengers who do.
Management is evaluating potential operational and commercial pathways permissible within the eIPP framework.
Joby aims to launch operations in high-density corridors across Texas, Florida, and New York. Management sees these as large initial addressable markets.
The company says it is too early to give a revenue number. Its chief executive describes the program as an added near-term burden on his team. That leaves Joby as a flight business now and an aircraft manufacturer later.
Can Joby Produce Aircraft In Meaningful Numbers?Both the flight business and the aircraft business need one production line to grow, and that line is still small. Joby has five electric air taxis flying, one of which is its first FAA-conforming aircraft. Another 12 are at various stages of production. In the second half of 2026, it aims to roll at least two aircraft off the line. Skeptics point to the divergence between passenger demand and initial production output as a central headwind.
The line is improving. Over the first six months of 2026, the nonconformance rate in Joby’s manufacturing processes dropped by nearly 40%. This is the work that has to happen before volume can follow.
At the end of the second quarter of 2026, Joby held about $2.3 billion in cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments. It expects to spend $385 million to $415 million of that in the second half of 2026. That amount is more than three times a full year of guided revenue.
So what does this all mean?
The TakeawayThe upside case is both real and narrow. It is a bet on output, not on demand. On eight separate occasions, the stock has risen more than 30% within two months. The first came in 2021 and the latest in 2025, and every one happened before Joby had a certified aircraft.
Historically, certification milestones have served as positive catalysts for the stock, though substantial production and cash-burn risks remain.
Key Takeaways Joby Aviation launches week-long eIPP flights across Dallas-Fort Worth, including DFW Airport routes. Real-world operations could support safety standards & integration of eVTOL aircraft into airspace. A new 45,000-square-foot Fort Worth facility gives Joby Aviation a long-term base in a key Texas market Joby Aviation’s (JOBY - Free Report) launch of eIPP flights in Texas marks an important step toward commercializing its electric air taxi technology. The week-long campaign in the Dallas-Fort Worth region demonstrates the company’s ability to operate real-world routes, including flights into DFW Airport and connections to major urban locations. Such demonstrations could help validate the practicality of electric air taxis for short-distance urban and airport transportation.
The campaign also benefits from Joby’s longstanding collaboration with the FAA and NASA on advanced air mobility. The company’s efforts to generate real-world operational data could support the development of safety standards and facilitate the integration of eVTOL aircraft into existing airspace. Successful operations in the busy North Texas airspace would further strengthen confidence in Joby’s ability to scale its commercial service.
Additionally, the new 45,000-square-foot facility at Perot Field Fort Worth Alliance Airport provides Joby with a long-term operating base in a strategically important market. Texas’ growing population, extensive transportation infrastructure and strong aviation ecosystem could create favorable conditions for the adoption of air taxi services. Direct connectivity between Alliance Airport, DFW and major business hubs also offers several potential commercial use cases.
However, Joby’s ability to capitalize on these opportunities depends on completing FAA certification and establishing the regulatory framework required for large-scale commercial operations. Continued testing and successful integration into busy airspace will therefore remain crucial. Overall, the Texas eIPP campaign represents a meaningful milestone that could accelerate Joby’s path toward commercial air taxi service and strengthen its presence in a key U.S. market.
JOBY’s Share Price PerformanceJOBY’s shares have plunged 56.2% over the past year compared with the Aerospace - Defense industry’s 11.3% decline.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
JOBY’s Zacks RankJOBY currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
Stocks to ConsiderInvestors interested in the Zacks Transportation sector may consider Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (EXPD - Free Report) and Seanergy Maritime Holdings (SHIP - Free Report) .
EXPD currently sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Expeditors has an expected earnings growth rate of 28.6% for 2026. The company has an encouraging earnings surprise history. Its earnings outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, delivering an average beat of 17.15%.
Seanergy Maritime Holdings currently sports a Zacks Rank #1.
SHIP has an expected earnings growth rate of more than 100% for the current year. The company has an encouraging earnings surprise history. Its earnings topped the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, delivering an average beat of 38%.
Key Takeaways JOBY's J208 has logged 400 flights and 800 automated hours, plus three U.S. military exercises. The 10-state tour aims to test diverse environments & deepen ties with government & industry partners. eIPP participation & state partnerships offer data, airspace integration & autonomy network development Joby Aviation’s (JOBY - Free Report) cross-country tour highlights the growing maturity of its autonomous flight technology and expands its potential beyond passenger air mobility. The J208’s ability to support commercial freight, medical transport, emergency response and defense logistics provides the company with multiple avenues to monetize its autonomy platform. The month-long, 10-state tour also offers an opportunity to demonstrate the technology in diverse operating environments and strengthen relationships with government and industry partners.
The company’s proven operational track record further supports the prospects of its autonomous aircraft. The J208 has completed more than 400 flights and accumulated 800 automated flight hours while successfully participating in three U.S. military exercises. These demonstrations validate the technology’s capabilities in real-world logistics scenarios and could help build confidence among potential commercial and government customers.
Joby’s participation in the White House-backed eIPP program and partnerships with transportation agencies in Texas, North Carolina and other states represent additional positives. The initiatives provide valuable opportunities to gather operational data, demonstrate airspace integration and accelerate the development of autonomous aviation networks. The aircraft’s ability to operate under supervised autonomy, with a ground-based remote pilot serving as Pilot in Command, also provides a practical pathway toward broader deployment.
However, regulatory approvals and broader acceptance of autonomous aircraft remain key challenges. Joby’s ability to demonstrate consistent safety and reliability across increasingly complex airspace and operating conditions will be crucial for autonomous flight to achieve large-scale commercial adoption. Nevertheless, the tour represents a meaningful step in showcasing Joby’s technology and could strengthen its position in the emerging autonomous air logistics market.
JOBY’s Share Price PerformanceJOBY’s shares have declined 56.2% over the past year compared with the Aerospace - Defense industry’s 11.3% fall.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
JOBY’s Zacks RankJOBY currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
Stocks to ConsiderInvestors interested in the Zacks Transportation sector may consider Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (EXPD - Free Report) and Seanergy Maritime Holdings (SHIP - Free Report) .
EXPD currently sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Expeditors has an expected earnings growth rate of 28.6% for 2026. The company has an encouraging earnings surprise history. Its earnings outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, averaging a 17.15% beat.
Seanergy Maritime Holdings currently sports a Zacks Rank #1.
SHIP has an expected earnings growth rate of more than 100% for the current year. The company has an encouraging earnings surprise history. Its earnings topped the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, delivering an average beat of 38%.
Joby Aviation stock remains in a freefall this week and is hovering at its lowest level since May 2025. It slipped to $6.30, down more than 70% from its high last year, with its valuation falling from over $17.4 billion to $6.2 billion today. This retreat may continue, even as the company’s commercialization nears.
Joby Aviation is one of the top companies that seeks to disrupt the transportation industry. It has spent the last 17 years working on its electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft (eVTOL).
In this period, it has spent billions of dollars researching and working on its flights. To achieve that, it has received substantial funding from companies like Baillie Gifford and Toyota. Toyota has now become a crucial shareholder with a 14.3% stake.
The company has also raised capital through dilution. It has raised cash by selling shares in the past few years. As a result, the outstanding shares have jumped from 604 million in 2022 to 986 million today.
Most importantly, Joby has used this period to seek FAA certification, which it will receive later this year. The company has also expanded its manufacturing process and is using Toyota’s track record in the industry. It has also made some notable customer deals, including with ANA and Virgin Atlantic.
At the same time, it is now expanding its presence in the defense industry. It is doing that by spending $500 million to acquire Resonant Sciences, which will now become its defense business.
Resonant made over $100 million in revenue in the trailing twelve months and is growing by 40%. This matters because the US government plans to spend over $1.5 trillion on defense.
READ MORE: Here’s why flying car stocks like Joby and Archer Aviation falling
The company plans to start its commercial events this year, and then scale it in the foreseeable future. Taken together, its commercialization and the ongoing pivot towards the defense industry mean that it is at an inflection point.
Analysts expect that its revenue, excluding Resonant, will continue growing, with its annual revenue rising to $125 million this year and $299 million next year.
Concerns about its business remainsJoby Aviation stock has slipped in the past few months as investors remain concerned about its business. This explains why it has a short interest of about 10%, a sign that investors expect it to continue its downward trend.
One of the key concerns is that it will take a long time for the company to become profitable even when the commercialization process starts. This will see it continue raising capital, possibly through share sales. It recently announced a $750 million share sale to finance its Resonant business.
JOBY Aviation chart | Source: TradingView
The weekly chart shows that the JOBY share price has slumped in the past few years, falling from a record high of $21 to the current $6.30. It has formed a descending channel, a sign that bears remain in control.
The stock has dropped below the 78.6% Fibonacci Retracement level. It also fell below the 50-week and 100-week Exponential Moving Averages (EMA). Also, the Average Directional Index (ADX) has risen to 17.30 and is pointing upwards.
Therefore, the stock will likely continue falling, potentially to the key support level of $4.87, its lowest level in October 2024 and April last year.
Joby Aviation, Inc. (NYSE:JOBY – Get Free Report) shares reached a new 52-week low on Tuesday . The stock traded as low as $6.18 and last traded at $6.2840, with a volume of 31032175 shares traded. The stock had previously closed at $6.39.
Wall Street Analyst Weigh In A number of analysts recently commented on the stock. Needham & Company LLC dropped their price target on shares of Joby Aviation from $18.00 to $15.00 and set a “buy” rating on the stock in a research note on Thursday, August 6th. Susquehanna set a $18.00 price objective on shares of Joby Aviation in a research note on Thursday, August 6th. HC Wainwright reissued a “buy” rating on shares of Joby Aviation in a report on Thursday, August 6th. Weiss Ratings upgraded Joby Aviation from a “sell (e+)” rating to a “sell (d-)” rating in a research report on Tuesday, July 14th. Finally, Wall Street Zen downgraded Joby Aviation from a “sell” rating to a “strong sell” rating in a research report on Saturday, August 8th. Two analysts have rated the stock with a Buy rating, four have given a Hold rating and three have assigned a Sell rating to the stock. Based on data from MarketBeat, the company presently has an average rating of “Reduce” and an average price target of $13.81.
Get Our Latest Stock Analysis on Joby Aviation
Joby Aviation Stock Down 1.7% The company has a current ratio of 17.98, a quick ratio of 17.98 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.40. The firm has a market cap of $6.22 billion, a PE ratio of -6.35 and a beta of 2.68. The stock has a fifty day simple moving average of $7.42 and a two-hundred day simple moving average of $8.83. Joby Aviation (NYSE:JOBY – Get Free Report) last announced its quarterly earnings results on Wednesday, August 5th. The company reported ($0.25) earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter, missing analysts’ consensus estimates of ($0.23) by ($0.02). Joby Aviation had a negative return on equity of 55.29% and a negative net margin of 755.11%.The firm had revenue of $38.64 million during the quarter, compared to analysts’ expectations of $30.20 million. During the same period in the previous year, the company posted ($0.41) earnings per share. The company’s quarterly revenue was up 257493.3% compared to the same quarter last year. As a group, sell-side analysts expect that Joby Aviation, Inc. will post -1 EPS for the current fiscal year.
Insiders Place Their Bets In other Joby Aviation news, CFO Rodrigo Brumana sold 8,898 shares of the stock in a transaction that occurred on Thursday, September 3rd. The shares were sold at an average price of $6.89, for a total value of $61,307.22. Following the sale, the chief financial officer directly owned 110,831 shares in the company, valued at $763,625.59. This represents a 7.43% decrease in their position. The transaction was disclosed in a document filed with the SEC, which is available through this hyperlink. The transaction was executed under a pre-arranged Rule 10b5-1 trading plan. The sale was made to cover tax withholding obligations related to the vesting of equity awards. Also, insider Kate Dehoff sold 14,240 shares of the firm’s stock in a transaction on Tuesday, July 14th. The shares were sold at an average price of $7.73, for a total transaction of $110,075.20. Following the completion of the transaction, the insider directly owned 180,179 shares of the company’s stock, valued at approximately $1,392,783.67. The trade was a 7.32% decrease in their ownership of the stock. Additional details regarding this sale are available in the official SEC disclosure. The transaction was executed under a pre-arranged Rule 10b5-1 trading plan. The sale was made to cover tax withholding obligations related to the vesting of equity awards. Over the last ninety days, insiders sold 298,335 shares of company stock worth $2,281,868. Company insiders own 20.35% of the company’s stock.
Institutional Investors Weigh In On Joby Aviation A number of institutional investors and hedge funds have recently made changes to their positions in the business. Ancora Advisors LLC bought a new stake in Joby Aviation during the second quarter valued at approximately $27,000. Gunpowder Capital Management LLC dba Oliver Wealth Management purchased a new stake in shares of Joby Aviation during the 4th quarter valued at $28,000. Leonteq Securities AG lifted its holdings in shares of Joby Aviation by 295.2% during the 1st quarter. Leonteq Securities AG now owns 4,351 shares of the company’s stock worth $36,000 after acquiring an additional 3,250 shares during the last quarter. Western Wealth Management LLC purchased a new position in Joby Aviation in the first quarter worth $37,000. Finally, Geneos Wealth Management Inc. increased its stake in Joby Aviation by 95.5% in the first quarter. Geneos Wealth Management Inc. now owns 5,385 shares of the company’s stock valued at $44,000 after acquiring an additional 2,630 shares during the last quarter. Hedge funds and other institutional investors own 52.85% of the company’s stock.
Joby Aviation Company Profile (Get Free Report)
Joby Aviation, Inc develops electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft intended to support commercial air-taxi services. Its aircraft are designed to take off and land vertically like helicopters while traveling with the speed and range of conventional aircraft, with the goal of providing quieter, lower-emission transportation for urban and regional journeys.
The company is pursuing an integrated business model that includes designing and manufacturing its aircraft, operating air-taxi services, and providing related technology and infrastructure.
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A stock that grows 10 times its original value -- a 900% increase -- is something most investors would be happy to have in their portfolios. But it rarely happens in one sudden leap, if it even happens at all, with most eventual 10-baggers needing several years to decades to deliver a tenfold gain to those who patiently hold on.
Could Joby Aviation (JOBY +1.27%), the air taxi company, be one of these tenfold winners?
Image source: Joby Aviation.
The long flight to 10 Joby Aviation is making electric air taxis, also called electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft.
If you've never heard of or seen an eVTOL, that's because this type of aircraft hasn't been approved for commercial operations in the U.S. But if they are approved, well, buckle up -- not only could your daily commute look different (from the air, that is), but the skies above cities could have fewer helicopters and more of these quiet, electric, drone-like vessels whizzing to and fro.
The eVTOL market is expected to account for a sizable share of the global economy, with Morgan Stanley once predicting a total addressable market of a trillion by 2050.
That brings us to Joby: What makes Joby so exciting is that it is the frontrunner of this nascent market. I mean that literally: Joby has logged more than 50,000 flight miles, and its aircraft is now in the fifth and final stage of FAA type certification. It earns revenue through its passenger helicopter business, Blade, and it is also working with Toyota (TM +2.97%) to lay the groundwork for producing air taxis at scale.
All this is to say: If the eVTOL industry becomes the billion-dollar market analysts are predicting, then Joby would be its most obvious beneficiary.
But would it be enough to make Joby a 10-bagger?
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At the time of writing, Sept. 10, Joby had a market cap of roughly $6.4 billion. A tenfold gain would bring that market cap up to about $64 billion, assuming the share count stayed the same, which would imply about $14 billion in annual revenue if its price-to-earnings multiple were 30 and its net margins were 15%. Put differently: If every Joby eVTOL aircraft were earning $2 million annually, then it would need a fleet of 7,500 aircraft to rake in $15 billion a year.
Those are lofty numbers, requiring aggressive growth. If Joby were to make 1,000 eVTOL vehicles annually, it would have 7,500 in 7.5 years -- 15 years if it were to produce 500 annually. Right now, Joby has built five aircraft, with 12 more in production.
So yes, Joby could grow into a $64 billion market cap -- though getting there will take years of expansion. Indeed, a tenfold return, if it ever comes, will need time, possibly a decade or longer. That could be a long flight if you need your money sooner -- not a flight every investor can take, at any rate. Given Joby's speculative nature right now, I would only invest if you have the time horizon to see it grow; otherwise, there are plenty of other great opportunities that require less patience and fewer leaps of faith.
Investors looking at the 2026 aerospace market face a choice between orbital dominance and urban air taxis. Both Firefly Aerospace (FLY +1.10%) and Joby Aviation (JOBY +1.27%) are vying for long-term growth.
Firefly Aerospace provides launch services and lunar transit for government and commercial clients. Joby Aviation focuses on electric vertical take-off and landing vehicles for aerial ridesharing. While both firms are capital-intensive ventures, their specific end markets and technological hurdles set them apart for investors today.
The case for Firefly AerospaceFirefly sells orbital launch capacity via its Alpha rocket and provides lunar landing services with its Blue Ghost vehicle. It works closely with major partners like Lockheed Martin Corp (LMT -1.12%) and Northrop Grumman Corp (NOC +0.00%) to develop in-space infrastructure. This business also includes a sovereign-led franchise model that recently expanded into international launch operations in Sweden.
In FY 2025, revenue reached nearly $159.9 million, representing a 163% increase over the previous year. Despite this growth, the company reported a net loss of approximately $334 million for the period. This reflects the high research and development costs required to scale its launch cadence for defense stocks and commercial clients.
As of its December 2025 balance sheet, the debt-to-equity ratio is roughly 0.3x. This ratio measures total debt (including both short-term and long-term liabilities) against shareholder equity to assess financial leverage. The company also maintains a current ratio of roughly 4.5x, which measures its ability to pay short-term bills with liquid assets, while free cash flow reached nearly negative $238 million.
The case for Joby AviationJoby Aviation operates an aerial ridesharing service and develops electric vertical take-off and landing aircraft for urban travel. Its strategic partners include Toyota for manufacturing and Delta Air Lines (DAL +2.13%) for premium airport transportation services. The company also recently expanded its market access through its Blade passenger business, which connects travelers in New York City and Southern Europe.
In FY 2025, revenue reached roughly $53.4 million, which is a significant increase from the nominal amounts generated in the prior year. The company reported a net loss of approximately $930 million for the fiscal year. This loss is primarily associated with the massive investments needed to achieve FAA certification and scale manufacturing operations.
As of its December 2025 balance sheet, the company carries a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.0x. This indicates that Joby currently has no significant debt compared to its shareholder equity. Its current ratio is nearly 24.1x, which measures a company's ability to cover its short-term debts with its short-term assets, while free cash flow reached approximately negative $563.8 million.
Risk profile comparisonFirefly Aerospace faces significant revenue concentration and dependence on government budget levels. Shifts in federal spending or government shutdowns could disrupt its contract pipeline for lunar and orbital missions. Additionally, the company navigates operational risks related to launch vehicle delays and complex international licensing requirements for its expansion.
Joby Aviation is heavily dependent on obtaining FAA Type Certification for its electric aircraft. If regulatory hurdles persist, the company may struggle to meet its production and scaling timelines. Furthermore, the emerging nature of the urban air mobility market means consumer adoption and price sensitivity remain uncertain for future flights.
Valuation comparisonWhile Firefly Aerospace has a lower P/S ratio, Joby Aviation remains in a much earlier phase of revenue scaling. Neither company has a forward price-to-earings ratio because they are not expected to turn a profit in their coming fiscal years.
MetricFirefly AerospaceJoby AviationForward P/En/an/aP/S ratio12.2x50.3xValuation metrics sourced from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP) and may differ from other data providers.
Firefly went public in an initial public offering a year ago at $45 a share. Shares have spent much of the past year below that mark, reflecting typical post-IPO volatility.
More important is the company's recent business success. Firefly Aerospace is the only private company to achieve a successful lunar landing, doing so in March 2025 with its Blue Ghost Mission I. The success of that effort has ingratiated Firefly with NASA, which sent 10 payloads to the Moon with last year's mission. The company now plans annual missions to the Moon to deliver payloads for NASA as part of the agency's goal of constructing a permanent lunar base. Exciting stuff, and considering the attention the recent SpaceX IPO-Space Exploration Technologies Inc (SPCX +2.04%)-- will bring to space businesses, that can only be another positive for Firefly.
While future projections are inherently speculative, Wall Street analysts expect Firefly to top $440 million this year and reach $1 billion in annual revenue in its fiscal 2028.
In 2025, the U.S. federal government created the framework for real-world testing of eVTOL aircraft, a concrete step toward making Joby's vision a reality. Japan, South Korea, and Saudi Arabia are other countries building similar regulatory frameworks. A lot still has to happen for either company's aircraft to get into the skies, but the notion that the nation's airspace is being regulated in a way that is holding back growth is one that has found favor.
Joby recently tested its Blade aircraft in New York City across different charging environments and on real-world routes it proposes, such as flying from JFK Airport, on the city's outskirts, into Manhattan. Joby is further along with its manufacturing capabilities, embedding Toyota philosophies throughout its system. Even though it is further along the path to market, analysts don't see Joby turning a profit through 2030, a year in which consensus projects $2.3 billion of revenue and a net loss of around $195 million.
Both these promising start-ups are intriguing stocks. But Joby competes in the hotly competitive aviation field and has no guarantee of success. Firefly is further along in proving its business model and comes at a much more attractive (if still pricey) P/S ratio. Firefly is the stock to buy for 2026.
Joby Aviation (JOBY +1.27%), a leading developer of electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) aircraft, plans to launch its first commercial flights with Uber (UBER -1.23%) by the end of this year. That sounds like a major catalyst for the stock, but I wouldn't buy Joby's stock on this news alone for three simple reasons.
Image source: Joby Aviation.
Why won't Joby's Dubai flights move the needle? First, Joby's flights in Dubai will mark its first commercial flights, but they're not nearly as meaningful as its planned flights for the U.S. market. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) still hasn't certified Joby's commercial flights in the U.S. yet, but they could be cleared by the end of 2026. That certification will finally give Joby the green light to mass-produce its eVTOLs in the U.S. and expand its first-party air taxi network with Uber and Delta (DAL +2.13%),
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Second, the ongoing military conflicts in the Middle East, which exposed the UAE to missile and drone attacks, could force Joby to delay the launches of its first eVTOLs in Dubai.
Lastly, Joby remains unprofitable and trades at 14 times its 2028 sales. That red ink and high valuation will make it an easy target for the bears if the Fed raises its benchmark rates. So while Joby might still have a bright future, I wouldn't buy it unless the FAA clears its first U.S. flights.
Leo Sun has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends Delta Air Lines and Uber Technologies. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
