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The biggest question surrounding Joby Aviation (JOBY 1.12%) has never been whether electric air taxis can fly. It's whether regulators would approve them.That question became a little easier to answer after Joby began flying its first FAA-conforming production eVTOL aircraft, a major step toward obtaining Type Inspection Authorization (TIA). If you're unfamiliar, TIA is one of the final stages before full FAA certification for commercial operations.
The company has now logged more than 50,000 miles of test flights, and management continues targeting commercial service this year. A lofty goal, to be sure. But does it make the stock a buy?
The regulatory risk is falling For years, FAA certification has been the single largest overhang on the stock.
With production-conforming aircraft now flying, Joby has moved beyond testing prototypes and into validating the aircraft that regulators will ultimately certify for passenger service. That's a much different stage of development than we were looking at just a year ago.
Joby was also recently selected to participate in the White House-backed Air Taxi Pilot Program, which will allow early operations across multiple U.S. states. This is while the company is now preparing to launch service in Dubai, where vertiports are already under construction. Those are significant milestones.
Valuation still demands perfection The fact is, the stock already reflects considerable optimism. Joby currently carries a market capitalization of roughly $8.5 billion despite generating very little revenue today. However, that's not unusual for an emerging aerospace company.
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But concerns regarding execution remain. Launching an entirely new form of transportation requires FAA certification, manufacturing scale, charging infrastructure, pilot training, customer adoption, and favorable economics -- all at the same time.
So even after certification, profitability could still be years away.
A lot has to go right Certification is only one milestone. Joby plans to produce four aircraft per month by 2027, but scaling manufacturing while maintaining safety standards is one of the hardest challenges in aerospace. At the same time, the company must prove that customers are willing to pay enough to support a profitable business model. And we just don't know how that will play out yet.
Image source: Getty Images.
Not a low-risk investment Joby has unquestionably reduced one of the biggest risks facing its business. That's an important development, and it makes the path toward commercialization considerably clearer than it was a year ago.
Still, I wouldn't call the stock an obvious buy. The market is already assigning an $8.5 billion valuation to a company that has yet to establish a commercial air taxi business. That leaves relatively little room for execution mistakes.
If Joby delivers on certification, launches service on schedule, and proves demand exists, today's valuation could eventually look reasonable. But until those pieces fall into place, I'd view the stock as an intriguing technology story with loads of potential but not a low-risk investment.