Let’s see how things might have shaped up before the announcement.
Factors Likely to Influence INCY's Q2 ResultsIncyte primarily derives product revenues from the sales of its lead drug, Jakafi (ruxolitinib), in the United States, as well as from the sales of other marketed drugs. Its momentum is likely to have continued on the back of strong Jakafi sales, a first-in-class, selective JAK1/JAK2 inhibitor, in all approved indications (polycythemia vera, myelofibrosis and refractory acute graft-versus-host disease [GvHD]).
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Jakafi's second-quarter sales is pegged at $796.5 million.
Incyte also earns product royalty revenues from Novartis (NVS - Free Report) for the commercialization of Jakafi in ex-U.S. markets.
While Incyte markets Jakafi in the United States, Novartis markets the same drug as Jakavi outside the United States. INCY is expected to have received higher royalties from NVS in the to-be-reported quarter due to potentially higher Jakavi sales.
Year to date, Incyte shares have gained 18.1% compared with the industry’s 1.3% growth.
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Incyte also receives royalties from the sales of Tabrecta (capmatinib), which is approved for treating adult patients with metastatic non-small cell lung cancer. Novartis has exclusive worldwide development and commercialization rights to Tabrecta.
In the to-be-reported quarter, Opzelura (ruxolitinib cream) sales are expected to have been driven by continued growth in new patient starts and refills in the United States, for both its approved indications, atopic dermatitis and vitiligo. Incyte's second-quarter results are expected to benefit from its recent settlement with the CMS regarding Medicaid rebate rules for Opzelura. The agreement eliminates potential liabilities related to the application of line extension regulations, leading to a one-time, non-cash benefit of approximately $246 million in the second quarter from the reversal of previously accrued balances. The settlement should also improve Opzelura's gross-to-net performance going forward, and management is expected to update its financial guidance to reflect the impact.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Opzelura’s second-quarter sales is pegged at $214.7 million.
While Jakafi’s sales and royalties are the key catalysts for Incyte’s revenue growth, sales of other drugs like Minjuvi, Pemazyre and Iclusig, and Olumiant’s royalties from Eli Lilly (LLY - Free Report) are also likely to have contributed to Incyte’s top line. INCY has a collaboration agreement with LLY for Olumiant. The drug is a once-daily oral JAK inhibitor discovered by Incyte and licensed to Eli Lilly. It is approved for several types of autoimmune diseases.
Incyte acquired exclusive global rights to Monjuvi/Minjuvi (tafasitamab), initially approved for the treatment of relapsed or refractory diffuse large B-cell lymphoma, from MorphoSys in 2024. Last year, the FDA approved Monjuvi for relapsed or refractory follicular lymphoma, expanding its label and boosting sales. Minjuvi also secured approvals for this indication in the EU and Japan in 2025.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Iclusig, Minjuvi/Monjuvi and Pemazyre’s second-quarter sales is pegged at $35.5 million, $50.6 million and $22.4 million, respectively. Incremental sales from Zynyz, too, are expected to have boosted Incyte’s revenues in the to-be-reported quarter.
Incyte and partner Syndax launched Niktimvo (axatilimab-csfr) in the United States in early 2025 after FDA approval for chronic graft-versus-host disease (cGvHD) patients who have failed at least two prior systemic therapies. Niktimvo is Incyte's second approved treatment for cGvHD (third-line). The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Niktimvo’s second-quarter sales is pegged at $63.5 million.
Higher research and development expenses, as well as increased selling, general and administrative costs, are likely to have escalated operating expenses in the second quarter of 2026.
INCY's Earnings Surprise HistoryIncyte has a mixed history of earnings surprises. The company beat earnings estimates in three of the trailing four quarters, while missing the same on the remaining occasion, delivering an average surprise of 18.26%. In the last reported quarter, INCY posted an earnings surprise of 31.16%.
Earnings Whispers for INCY StockOur proven model predicts an earnings beat for INCY this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is the case here, as you will see below.
INCY’s Earnings ESP: Incyte’s Earnings ESP is +18.47% as the Most Accurate Estimate currently stands at $2.19, higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, which is pegged at $1.85. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they're reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
INCY’s Zacks Rank: INCY has a Zacks Rank #3 at present.
Another Stock With a Favorable CombinationHere is a stock worth considering from the healthcare space, as our model shows that this, too, has the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle.
ACADIA Pharmaceuticals (ACAD - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +25.00% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Shares of ACAD have lost 7% year to date. The company’s earnings beat estimates in three of the trailing four quarters and missed on the remaining occasion, delivering an average surprise of 20.83%. Acadia is scheduled to report second-quarter results on Aug. 4.