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Immunic Inc (NASDAQ:IMUX, FRA:10VA) has announced the appointment of veteran biopharmaceutical executive Jon Congleton to its board of directors, as the...

European airlines face a sharp and accelerating contraction in Middle East seat capacity, with UBS warning that the structural risks to the sector may outlast any diplomatic resolution to regional tensions.

Analysts at UBS, the Swiss investment bank, said capacity on routes to and from the Middle East fell again in the most recent week, extending a deterioration that has gathered pace since early March.

Schedule data compiled by aviation analytics firm Cirium shows Middle East capacity is now tracking around 22% below comparable year-earlier levels in March, with the contraction deepening to approximately 39% in April.

The figures represent a material worsening from UBS's previous monitoring round and underline the degree to which geopolitical uncertainty is forcing airlines to pull back from one of the world's key long-haul markets.

The Middle East route network carries particular commercial weight for major European carriers, including International Consolidated Airlines Group SA (LSE:IAG), the owner of British Airways and Iberia, Lufthansa and Air France-KLM, all of which rely on the region both as a destination market and as a connecting hub for onward traffic to Asia.

Capacity pressures are not confined to the Middle East, however.

UBS revised its second-quarter long-haul capacity growth estimate for European airlines down to approximately 3%, from a prior forecast of 5%, while short-haul guidance was left unchanged at around 5%.

Third-quarter capacity estimates were nudged modestly higher for both segments, at approximately 5.6% for long haul and 4.6% for short haul.

The UBS team flagged an additional risk that investors may be underweighting: potential shortages of jet kerosene, the aviation fuel, could drive prices higher even if Middle East hostilities ease.

That dynamic, the analysts argued, could place further downward pressure on capacity as airlines adjust their networks in response to elevated operating costs rather than security concerns alone.

China-Europe and US-Europe routes continue to show positive capacity growth, offering a partial offset, but the Middle East remains the dominant near-term drag on the European aviation demand outlook.

UBS has received compensation from companies covered in its research within the past 12 months. Investors should be aware the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.

C3 Metals Inc (TSX-V:CCCM, OTC:CUAUF) has announced new drilling results from its Khaleesi copper project in southern Peru, including a 148-metre interval of copper mineralization at depth and higher-grade zones closer to surface.

The company said drill hole KHZ5825-003 intersected 148.05 metres grading 0.42% copper equivalent (0.34% copper) from approximately 275 metres downhole within magnetite-skarn mineralization. This interval included a 114.05-metre section grading 0.48% copper equivalent.

In a separate hole, KHZ5790-001 returned 43.8 metres grading 0.59% copper equivalent from about 40 metres depth. Within that zone, two higher-grade intervals were identified: 3.8 metres grading 1.80% copper equivalent and 1.4 metres grading 5.56% copper equivalent.

According to the company, eight of the 11 newly reported drill holes intersected elevated copper mineralization. The mineralization is primarily hosted in magnetite and garnet-diopside skarns, with additional occurrences in a multiphase intrusive complex.

Exploration at Khaleesi is focused on a contact zone between limestone and the Andahuaylas-Yauri batholith, which extends across the property. The company said drilling is helping define a curved, north-trending magnetite skarn body that remains open at depth and to the north, and may be offset to the south.

C3 Metals noted that at least six intrusive rock types have been identified to date. Based on earlier geochronology work, these intrusions are interpreted to predate the main mineralizing event and may have acted as pathways for mineralizing fluids.

A key objective of the current drill program is to identify a “causative intrusion” linked to mineralization dated at approximately 35.8 million years.

The company described the system as geologically complex, citing the multiphase intrusions, irregular contact zones, and limited surface exposure due to glacial cover.

“The first phase 12-hole, 6,300m program was designed to test a 1,000m by 500m area to a vertical depth of approximately 400m. The goal was to confirm a hydrothermal system of scale,” C3 Metals CEO Dan Symons said in a statement.

“With copper mineralization intersected in all of the first 12 holes drilled at Khaleesi, we view the first phase program for this greenfield project as highly successful.”

Drilling is ongoing, with approximately 11,000 metres completed across 24 holes and two additional holes currently in progress. Assay results have now been reported for 17 holes, with further results expected. The company is also considering additional geophysical surveys, including drone magnetics, 3D induced polarization, and gravity surveys, to help define potential extensions of mineralization.

“The second phase of drilling is focused on vectoring towards the core or 'heat engine' of the system. With a strong treasury and up to 15,000m planned for the second phase drilling, we are well-positioned to continue systematic exploration and vectoring at Khaleesi,” Symons added.

“Separately, drilling is continuing on our porphyry copper and gold prospects in Jamaica."

Additionally, C3 Metals said its board has approved the grant of about 2.8 million stock options to directors, officers, employees, and consultants under its shareholder-approved incentive plan. Of these, about 731,000 options vest immediately, while the remaining approximately 2 million will vest over 12 months, subject to regulatory acceptance.

Each option allows the holder to purchase one common share at a price of C$1.10 and will expire in April 2031. Following the grant, C3 Metals will have about 8.625 million stock options outstanding, representing about 6.88% of its issued and outstanding shares.

FTSE 100 jumps 92 points to 10,396 Brent crude futures fall 2% UK economy contracts 0.1% in April  Housebuilders show strong recovery  1.44pm: Market scepticism recovering Oil prices are creeping up again. Brent crude, having fallen from $95 on Thursday night to almost $86 a barrel this morning, is now back up at almost $88. 

A report from Axios suggested that both sides have agreed the text, which has been cleared at high levels in Iran but may still lack approval from Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei.

The two sides are said to have agreed the text of a proposed memorandum that would immediately reopen the Strait of Hormuz, extend the ceasefire by 60 days and provide limited sanctions relief in exchange for Iranian commitments on its nuclear programme. 

If signed, the agreement mediated by Qatar and Pakistan would be known as the Islamabad agreement.

"Markets are taking Trump’s latest declaration with a degree of caution", says market analyst Fawad Razaqzada at Forex.com.

Economist Kallum Pickering at Peel Hunt notes that President Trump has for the past two months "repeatedly signalled that a deal between the US and Iran to end the conflict and re-open the Strait of Hormuz is imminent".

"Each time, however, negotiations have broken down, or Iran has accused the US of making unjustified claims of a breakthrough."

After last night's announcement, "financial markets appear to be reacting as if a deal is underway"... though "let me emphasise, we have seen this before only for no breakthrough to emerge in the end".

Says Pickering: "If a deal is indeed reached, a big if, expect markets to raise expectations for growth in major economies as inflation worries ease, with expectations for further central bank rate hikes curtailed."

Razaqzada notes that while Trump's claim to have "ended the war with Iran" triggered an immediate risk-on reaction, with equities and bonds in demand as oil fell, "the follow-through remains surprisingly restrained for what would be a significant geopolitical breakthrough".

He adds that "there are still important hurdles to overcome", with Iranian officials have not publicly endorsed the reported framework, and questions remain over whether Tehran will seek additional concessions before signing any deal

1.07pm: US stocks to extend gains Wall Street is heading for a firmer open, with futures ticking higher as investors weigh President Donald Trump’s sudden shift on Iran and turn attention to a blockbuster market debut.

Dow Jones futures are up over 0.7%, while those for the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq futures are up nearer 0.6%, all extending the strong gains from last night.

That rally came after Trump said US military strikes on Iran were "cancelled" and suggested a peace deal could be close, as "discussions with the Islamic Republic of Iran have been brought to the highest level of Iranian leadership and approved". 

The Nasdaq jumped 2.5%, the Dow finished up 1.9% and the S&P gained 1.8% as risk appetite returned.

Today, geopolitics looks set to fade into the background, with all eyes are on the much-anticipated SpaceX IPO, for which many are holding their breath.

12.34pm: Fall in UK GDP 'won't alter BoE outlook', says Barclays   UK monthly GDP contracting 0.1% in April will not alter the Bank of England's thinking much, says economist Jack Meaning at Barclays.  

The monthly contraction was in line with other soft Q2 data, he points out, with PMI data weakening, particularly in services, as well as weaker spending signals from Barclays spend trends data.

"We continue to expect the impact of the Middle East conflict to feed into more subdued activity in the next few months," he adds, retain his expectation of 0.1% quarter-on-quarter growth in Q2.

"For the Bank of England, we think the data today will validate their expectation of Q2 growth of 0.1% q/q heading into the meeting next week (18 June), and won't alter their outlook for GDP growth.

"We now look to BoE​/​Ipsos inflation expectations data (12 June), the May inflation data (17 June) and April labour market release (18 June) for any surprises.

"We think the bar for coming data to change the outcome of the June meeting is high, although it may, at the margin, affect the vote split and tone of individual paragraphs."

11.54am: Shell, BP and BAE weigh Weighing on the index today are falls for energy and defence groups, some heavyweights among only 16 London blue-chips that are in the red currently.

Oil giants BP and Shell are down 4.4% and 3.25%. Defence group BAE Systems is down 1.9%, followed by energy suppliers Centrica and SSE, down 1.9% and 1%. 

Next are Sage Group, Bunzl, National Grid, LSE and British American Tobacco. 

11.04am: SpaceX touching down SpaceX’s much anticipated IPO "has been a roaring success", says Kathleen Brooks at XTB, with huge demand for the shares.

The IPO has raised $75 billion, making it the largest ever, valuing the company at $1.77 trillion, the seventh largest firm on the US stock market.

Trading in New York's Nasdaq begins later, with the company worth more than JP Morgan, Meta, Eli Lilly, Berkshire Hathaway and Tesla, Brooks notes. 

It's free float of $75 billion is more on a par with the market caps of Airbnb, Ross Stores and General Motors, though. 

"Today comes the real test," says Brooks, as the shares trade on the open market for the first time.

"After Thursday’s stock market rally the scene is set for a strong start, but any sign of weakness on the main US tech exchange could send shivers across financial markets."

She notes reports that the allocation of shares to the retail market has been lower than originally reported at roughly 20% versus the mooted 30%.

"This is still far higher than the usual allocation to the retail trading community and suggests that institutional demand far outstripped supply.

"This signals that everyone wants a slice of SpaceX right now, which could lead to more shares coming to market, should the underwriters exercise their right to sell additional shares in the coming weeks."

10.30am: More market movers The FTSE 100 has pared some of the morning's gains, and is now 141 points up at 10,445.02. Here's a look at some of the other stocks making big moves today. 

Kier Group PLC (LSE:KIE) rose 3.8% after securing a £140 million contract extension with South West Water, part of Pennon Group PLC (LSE, OTC), running through to 2028. The deal extends a 20-year partnership and keeps Kier as sole contractor on the network services alliance. Read more

BSF Enterprise PLC (LSE:BSFA, OTC:BSFAF) plunged 42% after its first T-Rex Leather handbag failed to meet its reserve at a Paris auction. The €150,000 top bid fell short, leaving the item unsold. The company has now withdrawn it for private sale, but says interest in its bio-leather technology remains strong, with ongoing talks in the sportswear and automotive sectors. Read more

Virgin Wines UK PLC (AIM:VINO) fell 14% to 28.8p after warning of a swing to a £1.5 million pre-tax loss for 2026 despite modest revenue growth. Higher duties and weaker consumer confidence weighed on profits. The group still highlighted improving sales momentum and rising customer acquisition, alongside plans for a new £700,000 warehouse investment funded from cash reserves. Read more

MedPal AI plc (AIM:MPAL) surged 25% to a three-month high around 3.88p after UK approval of Novo Nordisk’s oral weight-loss drug boosted sentiment around its new clinic model. The company says the timing is ideal, with its New Health service launching just as demand for GLP-1 treatments expands. It expects oral options to widen uptake beyond injectables, supported by strong US prescription trends. Read more

Cizzle Biotechnology Holdings PLC (LSE:CIZ) shares jumped 10.9% to 3.05p after the company secured a US patent covering methods used to detect its CIZ1B lung cancer biomarker. The patent strengthens its position in a key market and supports plans with partner Cizzle Bio Inc to commercialise the test across North America and the Caribbean. Read more

9.20am: Footsie bounces higher The FTSE 100 has extended its gains as the morning progresses, now up 148 points at 10,451.84 for a gain of close to 1.5%.

BA-owner International Consolidated Airlines Group SA (LSE:IAG) is now leading the pack, with a 5.5% gain, while Rolls-Royce Holdings PLC (LSE:RR.) has edged into second place, up 4.5%. 

"Global equities are ending the week with a powerful relief rally as markets price a rising chance of a US-Iran diplomatic breakthrough," commented Tickmill Group's Patrick Munnelly. "President Trump said the US is nearing a deal with Tehran, raising hopes that a conflict which has driven volatility for more than three months could be moving toward resolution." 

Munnelly pointed out that oil is the clearest expression of the shift in risk premia. Brent has fallen another 2% to around $88.50/bbl after President Trump softened military threats and pointed to high-level talks with Iranian officials.

"A formal signing ceremony could reportedly take place as soon as this weekend in Europe, with JD Vance expected to attend," he added. "The market is moving from pricing escalation risk to pricing de-escalation relief. That does not remove geopolitical uncertainty, but it materially reduces the immediate threat of a sustained energy shock."

9am: Housebuilders perk up  UK housebuilders surged on Friday as investors warmed to the prospect of lower interest rates and easing tensions in the Middle East.

Persimmon PLC (LSE:PSN) rose 3.9%, Barratt Redrow PLC (LSE:BTRW) gained 3.7%,Taylor Wimpey PLC (LSE:TW.) added 2.9%, while Vistry Group PLC (LSE:VTY) led the sector with a 5.1% jump.

The gains came despite data showing the UK economy shrank by 0.1% in April. Instead of spooking markets, the weaker GDP reading fuelled expectations that the Bank of England may cut rates sooner rather than later to support growth. The BoE's rate-setting committee meets next week. 

Hopes of a peace agreement in the Middle East also lifted sentiment. Oil prices retreated on the prospect of fewer supply disruptions, easing inflation concerns and reducing pressure on policymakers to keep rates higher for longer.

Government bond prices rose, and yields fell as investors increasingly priced in rate cuts rather than hikes. For housebuilders, cheaper borrowing costs could mean more affordable mortgages and stronger demand, helping a sector that has struggled under the weight of higher interest rates.

8.15am: Footsie bounces at the open  The FTSE 100 jumped at the open, gaining 89 points to 10,392.88 in the first 15 minutes of trading on hopes that an end to the conflict in the Middle East is near.

Antofagasta PLC (LSE:ANTO) led the gainers, with a 5.3% gain as copper prices surged on the potential end to the war. Fresnillo PLC (LSE:FRES) was close behind, up 4.9%, while housebuilder Persimmon PLC (LSE:PSN) rose 4.5% after a report suggesting that recent buying activity had been brisk. International Consolidated Airlines Group SA (LSE:IAG) added 4.4% as oil prices fell below $90 a barrel.  

BP PLC (LSE:BP.) and Shell PLC (LSE:SHEL, NYSE:SHEL) have come under pressure due to the lower oil prices, down 3.3% and 2.4% respectively.

"The FTSE100 rode on the coattails of improved global investor sentiment, with a strong open which built on a resilient performance in the previous session," commented interactive investor's Richard Hunter. "The gains came despite the oil majors following the oil price south, with a broad rally which included the housebuilders after a report suggesting that recent buying activity had been brisk."

While markets staged a strong recovery on hopes that the Middle East conflict could finally be coming to an end, Hunter noted that for the US there is only one show in town today.

"The highly anticipated SpaceX IPO will debut today after what has been an unusual run-up," Hunter said. "The price of $135 per share was announced in advance, Elon Musk reportedly negotiated special deals with Wall Street advisors, and the percentage of shares available to retail investors is much higher than would normally be the case. The offering will raise $75 billion for the company, which will be valued at $1.75 trillion."

7.55am: Fickle markets  Markets look set for a positive end to the week after President Trump made a massive about-turn on his plan to "hit Iran hard." 

It's not the first time he's indicated a peace deal is at hand. According to a CNBC review of the president’s social media posts and public remarks, Trump has signalled or stated outright more than 30 times that a deal is nearly at hand. CNN puts it higher at 38 times since before April's ceasefire was announced. 

"The past 24 hours has seen a sharp reversal in the trajectory of the US–Iran conflict, as mounting hopes of a deal have seen Brent crude fall -1.62% overnight, leaving it on track for a 3-month low of $88.80/bbl. So that’s led to a huge rally across bonds and equities, as lower oil prices have eased fears about a prolonged stagflationary shock," commented Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid. 

"With oil prices coming down sharply, alongside hopes that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen, that’s seen investors price out the chance of rapid rate hikes this year. Indeed, as we go to press, markets are now pricing in just a 77% chance of a Fed rate hike by December, having been fully priced in earlier this week."

7.35am: Middle East conflict hits the economy The UK economy hit a small bump in April, with GDP slipping 0.1% after solid growth in February and March. The monthly decline was largely down to a 0.2% drop in the services sector, while construction edged higher and production was flat.

The bigger picture, though, remains more encouraging. The economy expanded by 0.7% over the three months to April, marking the fifth consecutive period of three-month growth. Services continued to do much of the heavy lifting, with information and communication performing particularly well, alongside retail and professional services. Construction also made a strong contribution.

There were some headwinds. Businesses across sectors said conflict in the Middle East affected trading conditions, with some reporting weaker demand and higher energy and fuel costs.

Even so, GDP was still 1.2% higher than a year earlier, suggesting the UK's growth story remains intact despite a softer start to the second quarter.

FTSE 100 pre-market open Stocks in London are expected to open higher after US President Donald Trump backtracked on a threat to "hit Iran hard" as he hinted at a major breakthrough in talks. 

The FTSE 100 has been called 81 points higher, after closing Thursday's session 49 points up at 10,304. Brent crude has fallen 2% to $88.58 a barrel, while US WTI futures are also lower. 

"What’s unbelievable is that after three months of this nonsense, markets still move on words that have little substance," commented Swissquote's Ipek Ozkardeskaya. "This morning, US crude is testing the $85pb level to the downside, its lowest level since the early days of the Iranian conflict. Yet there is no confirmation from Iranian media, and there is nothing to suggest that this time will be the charm."

Overnight, US stocks staged a powerful comeback, with investors piling back into risk assets after President Trump said he had cancelled planned military strikes against Iran and suggested a diplomatic agreement could be close at hand.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq led the advance, jumping 2.5% as traders reversed much of Wednesday's sharp sell-off. The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 1.9%, and the S&P 500 climbed 1.8%.

As Friday trade draws to a close in Asia, Tokyo's Nikkei is up 2.9%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng is 1.7% higher, and Shanghai's SSE Composite has gained 1.2%. In Seoul, the Kospi has rallied 4.4% after earlier trading 8% higher as foreign investors shifted to net buying for the first time in 25 trading days. Sydney's ASX 200 closed 2% firmer.