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HighPeak Energy (HPK) is well-positioned to benefit from rising commodity prices amid Middle East supply disruptions and is prioritizing debt reduction. HPK's operations in Howard County offer high profitability and rapid paybacks. The new CEO, with Diamondback Energy experience, is shifting strategy toward balance sheet improvement and (likely) preparing for future cyclical downturns.

HighPeak Energy, Inc. (HPK) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Shares of HighPeak Energy, Inc. (NASDAQ: HPK - Get Free Report) gapped up before the market opened on Thursday. The stock had previously closed at $6.30, but opened at $7.00. HighPeak Energy shares last traded at $7.1250, with a volume of 226,048 shares. Analyst Upgrades and Downgrades A number of brokerages have recently weighed in

VOC Energy Trust (NYSE: VOC - Get Free Report) and HighPeak Energy (NASDAQ: HPK - Get Free Report) are both small-cap energy companies, but which is the better investment? We will contrast the two businesses based on the strength of their earnings, institutional ownership, dividends, risk, valuation, profitability and analyst recommendations. Valuation and Earnings This table compares

Wall Street expects a year-over-year decline in earnings on lower revenues when HighPeak Energy, Inc. (HPK - Free Report) reports results for the quarter ended March 2026. While this widely-known consensus outlook is important in gauging the company's earnings picture, a powerful factor that could impact its near-term stock price is how the actual results compare to these estimates.

The stock might move higher if these key numbers top expectations in the upcoming earnings report, which is expected to be released on May 6. On the other hand, if they miss, the stock may move lower.

While the sustainability of the immediate price change and future earnings expectations will mostly depend on management's discussion of business conditions on the earnings call, it's worth handicapping the probability of a positive EPS surprise.

Zacks Consensus EstimateThis company is expected to post quarterly loss of $0.02 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of -106.5%.

Revenues are expected to be $218.95 million, down 15% from the year-ago quarter.

Estimate Revisions TrendThe consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised 47.22% higher over the last 30 days to the current level. This is essentially a reflection of how the covering analysts have collectively reassessed their initial estimates over this period.

Investors should keep in mind that an aggregate change may not always reflect the direction of estimate revisions by each of the covering analysts.

Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Earnings WhisperEstimate revisions ahead of a company's earnings release offer clues to the business conditions for the period whose results are coming out. Our proprietary surprise prediction model -- the Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) -- has this insight at its core.

The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter; the Most Accurate Estimate is a more recent version of the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate. The idea here is that analysts revising their estimates right before an earnings release have the latest information, which could potentially be more accurate than what they and others contributing to the consensus had predicted earlier.

Thus, a positive or negative Earnings ESP reading theoretically indicates the likely deviation of the actual earnings from the consensus estimate. However, the model's predictive power is significant for positive ESP readings only.

A positive Earnings ESP is a strong predictor of an earnings beat, particularly when combined with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold). Our research shows that stocks with this combination produce a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time, and a solid Zacks Rank actually increases the predictive power of Earnings ESP.

Please note that a negative Earnings ESP reading is not indicative of an earnings miss. Our research shows that it is difficult to predict an earnings beat with any degree of confidence for stocks with negative Earnings ESP readings and/or Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) or 5 (Strong Sell).

How Have the Numbers Shaped Up for HighPeak Energy?For HighPeak Energy, the Most Accurate Estimate is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, suggesting that analysts have recently become bearish on the company's earnings prospects. This has resulted in an Earnings ESP of -50.00%.

On the other hand, the stock currently carries a Zacks Rank of #5.

So, this combination makes it difficult to conclusively predict that HighPeak Energy will beat the consensus EPS estimate.

Does Earnings Surprise History Hold Any Clue?While calculating estimates for a company's future earnings, analysts often consider to what extent it has been able to match past consensus estimates. So, it's worth taking a look at the surprise history for gauging its influence on the upcoming number.

For the last reported quarter, it was expected that HighPeak Energy would post a loss of$0.04 per share when it actually produced a loss of -$0.21, delivering a surprise of -425.00%.

Over the last four quarters, the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates just once.

Bottom LineAn earnings beat or miss may not be the sole basis for a stock moving higher or lower. Many stocks end up losing ground despite an earnings beat due to other factors that disappoint investors. Similarly, unforeseen catalysts help a number of stocks gain despite an earnings miss.

That said, betting on stocks that are expected to beat earnings expectations does increase the odds of success. This is why it's worth checking a company's Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank ahead of its quarterly release. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.

HighPeak Energy doesn't appear a compelling earnings-beat candidate. However, investors should pay attention to other factors too for betting on this stock or staying away from it ahead of its earnings release.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

HighPeak Energy, Inc. (HPK) came out with a quarterly loss of $0.02 per share in line with the Zacks Consensus Estimate. This compares to earnings of $0.31 per share a year ago.

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Crude oil is back in the headlines for the same reason it usually is: geopolitics. West Texas Intermediate prices are volatile on Iran-related risk premiums, creating opportunities. For retail investors, small-cap exploration and production names trading under $10 offer some of the most direct operating leverage to that move, without paying mega-cap multiples.

With that in mind, here are three exploration and production stocks under $10 that look interesting in the current oil tape, each with a distinct story and a distinct risk profile.

HighPeak Energy (NASDAQ: HPK) HighPeak Energy (NASDAQ:HPK) is a Fort Worth-based pure-play Permian operator drilling in Howard County, Texas. Shares last traded at $6.89, well inside the $10 ceiling, after rallying 45.36% year to date. The analyst target sits at $7.88, and the stock trades at a forward P/E near 11x with a price-to-book of 0.499.

The bull case is simple. Management cut 2026 capex nearly in half to $255 to $285 million and shifted to a one-rig maintenance program, which turns the company into a free-cash-flow machine if WTI holds above $100. The board is also running a strategic review that could include a sale, a potential catalyst on top of the commodity tailwind. The risk: Q1 revenue fell 16.1% year over year, long-term debt climbed to $1.13 billion, and the dividend was suspended. For investors comfortable with that leverage, HPK reads as a high-beta call on both oil and a deal.

VAALCO Energy (NYSE: EGY) VAALCO Energy (NYSE:EGY) is an international independent with production across Gabon, Côte d’Ivoire and Equatorial Guinea. The stock changed hands at $6.07, up 83.43% over the past year. Wall Street is constructive: the consensus price target is $8.80, with three Buy ratings and no Sells, and the dividend yields about 4.46%.

Management called Q1 an inflection point and raised full-year NRI sales guidance by 12% at the midpoint to 16,800 to 19,950 BOEPD without raising capex, with Q2 volumes guided 44% higher sequentially as the Côte d’Ivoire FPSO comes back online. African barrels priced off Brent benefit directly from any Middle East shipping disruption tied to the Iran narrative. The offsetting risk is real: Q1 revenue fell 43.3% year over year on lifting timing, and net debt jumped to $104 million from $1.1 million at year-end 2025. The setup favors investors who believe the worst quarter is in the rearview.

Granite Ridge Resources (NYSE: GRNT) Granite Ridge Resources (NYSE:GRNT) runs a non-operated E&P model across the Permian, Delaware and Utica basins, with a growing Operated Partnership effort. Shares closed at $5.24, with the dividend yielding roughly 8.8% and a forward P/E around 8x. Production grew 18% year over year to 34,467 Boe/d in Q1.

The pitch is income plus growth: a high-single-digit yield, double-digit volume growth, and management’s stated path to a free-cash-flow inflection in 2027. Higher WTI shortens that timeline. Risks weigh on the other side: a Q1 EPS miss, LOE up 55% per unit, weak natural gas pricing, and a BofA price target of $5.50 that implies little near-term upside. For yield-oriented investors willing to underwrite the operator concentration, GRNT looks like a patient compounder rather than a quick trade.

A low share price by itself is not an investment thesis. Each of these names carries meaningful balance-sheet and commodity risk that could overwhelm the operating leverage if oil rolls over. Investors should pair the geopolitical narrative with their own diligence on debt, hedge books, and reserve quality before acting.