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Stock NewsIEA warns of historic oil disruption: Chevron CVX and Exxon Mobil XOM advanced as the International Energy Agency said Iran’s effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz is driving the largest oil supply disruption on record, with Brent topping $100 and global equities sliding. Source: The Guardian.Live Nation settles Ticketmaster case: Live Nation Entertainment LYV reached a tentative DOJ settlement including up to $280M in fines, divestment of at least 13 amphitheaters and ticketing changes, while a coalition of states plans to keep litigating. Source: PBS NewsHour.U.S. taps SPR amid supply shock: The U.S. will release 172M barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve as part of a record 400M-barrel IEA action, with deliveries staged over ~120 days to refineries; oil prices rose despite the move. Source: CNBC.Atlassian cuts 10% to refocus on AI: Atlassian TEAM will eliminate ~1,600 roles to “self-fund” AI and enterprise sales investments, incurring $225M–$236M in charges while aiming to accelerate profitability. Source: CNBC.Airlines hike fares on fuel spike: United Airlines UAL and peers signaled higher ticket prices as jet fuel costs surge; carriers including Qantas and Cathay Pacific imposed surcharges and warned of potential schedule adjustments. Source: CNBC.War jitters reset rate-cut bets: The SPDR S&P 500 ETF SPY fell as markets priced higher-for-longer inflation and fewer 2026 Fed cuts, with short-end yields climbing amid heightened uncertainty over the Iran conflict’s duration. Source: Atlantic Council.Lucid maps robotaxi and cash-flow path: Lucid Group LCID outlined plans for midsize EVs, subscription software and a “Lunar” robotaxi concept, targeting positive free cash flow late this decade and expanding a tie-up with Uber UBER . Source: CNBC.Energy security push lifts renewables: NextEra Energy NEE and peers are in focus after John Kerry urged faster adoption of renewables and nuclear to cut reliance on fossil-fuel “chokepoints” exposed by the Iran war. Source: The Guardian.Palantir, Nvidia launch ‘sovereign AI’ stack: Palantir PLTR unveiled a reference architecture with Nvidia NVDA to deliver on-prem, sovereign AI infrastructure for governments and critical industries, integrating Palantir’s AIP with Nvidia’s platform. Source: Business Wire.SaaS layoffs tie to SBC discipline: Atlassian (TEAM) and other software firms are cutting headcount as stock-based compensation and AI-driven efficiency pressures push the sector toward tighter financial discipline. Source: Business Insider.Stocks hit 2026 lows as Brent tops $100: Energy names like Chevron (CVX) were among few gainers while the Dow fell 739 points (1.56%) and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at 2026 lows amid Hormuz closures and tanker attacks. Source: CNBC.Stryker hit by Iran-linked cyberattack: Stryker SYK reported a global network disruption affecting its Microsoft environment, with pro-Iran hackers claiming responsibility as authorities assessed impacts on healthcare operations. Source: CNN.Honda scraps 3 U.S.-bound EVs, warns of losses: Honda Motor HMC canceled the Honda 0 SUV, 0 Saloon and Acura RSX EVs, forecasting up to ¥2.5T in losses tied to its strategy reset and shifting focus toward next‑gen hybrids. Source: Honda Newsroom.Rivian’s R2 to debut with $57,990 launch model: Rivian RIVN will start R2 sales this spring with a 330-mile dual‑motor performance “Launch Package,” with less‑expensive trims, including a ~$45,000 version, slated for 2027. Source: CNBC.Fertilizer stocks climb on supply fears: CF Industries CF and peers rallied as the Hormuz standoff threatens key fertilizer flows, stoking concerns of higher farm input costs and food inflation. Source: Investor’s Business Daily.FTC to refund Invitation Homes renters: Invitation Homes INVH will fund $47.2M in refunds to 444,131 consumers after an FTC suit over undisclosed fees and deposit practices, alongside mandated leasing transparency reforms. Source: CBS News.Mortgage rates tick back above 6%: Average 30‑year mortgage rates rose to 6.11% amid war‑driven inflation risks and delayed Fed cuts, pressuring affordability for borrowers at Rocket Companies RKT and peers. Source: Yahoo Finance.xAI wins approval for Mississippi turbines: Regulators okayed 41 gas turbines to power Elon Musk’s Southaven data center amid community backlash over pollution and noise in Entergy ETR territory. Source: The Guardian.U.S. mulls Jones Act waiver: The White House is considering temporarily waiving the Jones Act to ease energy price pressures from shipping disruptions, a move with implications for carriers like Matson MATX . Source: Washington Post.Insurance backstop for Hormuz transits: Chubb CB was named lead underwriter for a U.S.-backed program insuring ships through the Strait of Hormuz as tanker attacks mount and traffic stalls. Source: CNBC.Upcoming EarningsUlta Beauty Inc ULTA will report today after close. Analysts estimate EPS 7.97 and revenue 3,801.61 million.Rubrik Inc RBRK will report today after close. Analysts estimate EPS -0.56 and revenue 342.34 million.ServiceTitan Inc TTAN will report today after close. Analysts estimate EPS -0.41 and revenue 245.48 million.SentinelOne Inc S will report today after close. Analysts estimate EPS -0.18 and revenue 271.15 million.RLX Technology Inc RLX will report tomorrow before market open. Analysts estimate EPS 0.03 and revenue 157.24 million.Upcoming DividendsThe Home Depot Inc HD goes ex-dividend today for $2.33 (yield 2.67%).Chord Energy Corp CHRD goes ex-dividend today for $1.30 (yield 4.13%).Pool Corp POOL goes ex-dividend today for $1.25 (yield 2.44%).Frontline PLC FRO goes ex-dividend today for $1.03 (yield 2.94%).YieldMax PLTR Option Income Strategy ETF PLTY goes ex-dividend today for $0.80 (yield 112.03%).Upcoming IPOsPayPay Corp PAYP is scheduled to list today on NAS. Offer price: TBD. Last price $18.16.Notable Insider TransactionsMedline Inc MDLN — Bcp 8 Holdings Mozart Manager L.l.c., a 10% Owner, reported selling 27,852,986 shares at $40.51 ($1,128.32M total) today.Medline Inc (MDLN) — Bx Mozart Ml-2 Holdco L.p., a 10% Owner, reported selling 27,852,986 shares at $40.51 ($1,128.32M total) today.Medline Inc (MDLN) — Tc Group Cayman Investment Holdings, L.p., a 10% Owner, reported selling 26,105,840 shares at $41.00 ($1,070.34M total) today.Alkami Technology Inc ALKT — General Atlantic Genpar (bermuda), L.p., a Director, 10% Owner, reported buying 2,846,015 shares at $17.77 ($50.57M total) Mar 11.Alkami Technology Inc (ALKT) — General Atlantic Llc, a Director, 10% Owner, reported buying 2,846,015 shares at $17.77 ($50.57M total) Mar 11.Stock RatingsNovartis (NVS) was upgraded by Argus from "hold" to "buy". They now have a $180.00 price target on the stock.Oracle (ORCL) was upgraded by JPMorgan Chase & Co. from "neutral" to "overweight". They now have a $210.00 price target on the stock.Hermes International (HESAY) was upgraded by HSBC Holdings plc from "hold" to "buy".Hermes International (HESAY) was upgraded by Kepler Capital Markets from "hold" to "buy".JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) was upgraded by Zacks Research from "hold" to "strong-buy".Trending DiscussionsJun Suh: Sprouts Farmers Market Inc (SFM) High gross profit (39%) compare to other grocery chains, because it's selling premium organic products Thus much…Kevin: SFL is going up strangely with very little news / reason to do so... there is a $0.20 dividend coming up on 3/12 but that's not enough to explain it.…GuruFocus Stock AnalysisGoldman Sachs Has Fixed the Business; Not the Valuation by Sheraden FrancesOshkosh Corporation: Pricing In Optimism It Hasn't Yet Earned by Frey TobiasCatalyst Pharmaceuticals: Exceptional Fundamentals Trading at 20-33% Discount by Pau Galindo OrtigosaOut with the Old Box and in with the New: A Check-in on the AI Transformation by Pierre RaymondColony Bankcorp and the Appeal of Repeatable Bank Earnings by Raphaël BernardThis stock alert was generated using automated technology and GuruFocus financial data to provide readers with timely and accurate market reporting. This content was reviewed by GuruFocus editorial team prior to publication. Please send any questions or comments about this story to [email protected].

With its 25% YTD correction, there's now a mismatch between Hermès' market valuations and fundamentals, making now a unique buying opportunity. Even with the ongoing luxury market slowdown, the company's revenue growth stays healthy, and its margins are robust even as net income contracted a bit in 2025 due to taxes. Market multiples indicate at least 20% upside to HESAY, though a worsening in geopolitical and macroeconomic conditions could be a risk.

Hermès is a rare scarcity asset, maintaining premium valuation despite recent macro-driven drawdown. HESAY delivered $18B in revenue and a 41.75% operating margin in 2025, with robust liquidity and disciplined reinvestment in brand scarcity. Macro risks and China/Asia exposure (42% of revenue) are key watchpoints, but the scarcity model and balance sheet offer resilience.

The fragile recovery of European luxury equities, which investors hoped would stabilize following a mixed Lunar New Year, was decisively upended by the onset of the Iran War in 2026.

In recent weeks, the sector has seen about $100 billion in market cap evaporate as geopolitical risk premia spiked and consumer sentiment soured. Titans including LVMH, Kering, Richemont, and Hermes, have retreated between 10% and 20% each.

While the Middle East represents some 6% of global luxury sales, it functions as a “vital growth” engine during a period of stagnation in other major markets.

However, analysts believe the European luxury stocks will rebound sharply as soon as the US-Iran conflict subsides.

According to them, the recent pullback isn’t a structural failure, but cyclical de-rating that actually offers a high-conviction entry point for the next market cycle.

In a recent note to clients, Deutsche Bank’s senior analyst Adam Cochrane said the primary catalyst for an expected post-war rally in luxury stocks hinges on valuation anomalies.

Major conglomerates are currently trading at huge discounts compared to their historical multiples, largely due to a risk premium that has decoupled share prices from fundamental earnings power.

While timing remains uncertain, Cochrane expects industry’s growth algorithm to eventually return, fueled particularly by a resurgence in US and Chinese demand.

Deutsche Bank maintained its “buy” rating on sector bellwether, adjusting the price target to €620, signaling the intrinsic value of the fashion giant remains robust despite wartime discount.

Investment firms more broadly have cut their earnings forecast in half to 3% for the first quarter. Still, the valuation landscape suggests significant upside once the macro outlook clears.

UBS – for example – sees potential recoveries of up to 40% in LVMH stock and 32% in Richemont.

According to its experts, once geopolitical uncertainty fades and investor sentiment normalizes, it will trigger a wave of institutional buying as funds rotate back into premium-quality discretionary stocks.

This will drive a rapid expansion of P/E multiples toward historical ranges, they concluded.

Wall Street believes a formal end to hostilities will serve as an immediate catalyst for operational normalization, particularly in high-margin regions.

The closure of key regional hubs has not only dented retail figures but also strained supply chains, with high-end manufacturers like Ferrari and Bentley previously forced to suspend shipments due to security concerns.

The resumption of these deliveries and the reopening of luxury travel retail in hubs like Dubai are expected to provide a concentrated boost to second-half revenue.

Because the Middle East – in recent years – has been one of the few “bright spots” in an otherwise struggling global landscape, its stabilization is critical for restoring investor confidence.

The return of wealthy tourists to the Gulf, who account for the majority of luxury spending in the region, will likely trigger a fast recovery in duty-free channels and reduce the elevated freight costs associated with wartime logistics.

This may further help luxury stocks rally again as the year unfolds.

Luxury stocks fell sharply on Wednesday after disappointing first-quarter earnings from Kering and Hermès highlighted the growing toll of the Middle East conflict on high-end spending, tourism and investor confidence.

The selloff, which spread across Europe’s luxury sector, signals rising concerns that geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic uncertainty are derailing hopes of a recovery in the $400 billion industry.

Shares of Hermès plunged 14%, while Kering dropped 10%, dragging peers such as Burberry, Christian Dior, LVMH and Moncler lower by between 2% and 3% on the Stoxx 600.

Earlier this week, sector bellwether LVMH reported softer sales for the first quarter, citing disruptions to the geopolitical and economic landscape, particularly from the conflict in the Middle East.

The luxury sector, already grappling with trade tensions and a challenging economic backdrop, is now facing fresh pressure from the war in Iran, which analysts say could dampen regional demand and curb spending by Middle Eastern tourists in Europe.

At the centre of Kering’s disappointing performance was continued weakness at its flagship brand Gucci, where first-quarter sales fell 8% from a year earlier.

The company said the Iran war had weighed on spending by Middle Eastern consumers and curtailed international travel, both key drivers of luxury demand.

Retail revenues in the Middle East declined 11% during the quarter, despite solid growth in the first two months of the year before the conflict escalated on February 28.

Finance chief Armelle Poulou said the war shaved off 3% of overall group sales in March, or around 1% for the quarter as a whole, with a similar impact on Gucci.

Kering noted that the Middle East accounts for about 5% of its overall revenue and said it was closely monitoring developments.

“While some areas experienced temporary disruptions, the total retail network is operational today,” the company said, adding that “beyond the localized impact,” the broader concern relates to global tourism trends and the macroeconomic backdrop.

Despite the uncertain environment, Kering reiterated its aim of returning to growth and improving margins this year.

However, analysts remain cautious about the pace of recovery.

“While guidance was confirmed, the timeline for a Gucci turnaround remains uncertain and likely gradual, against a challenging macro backdrop and ongoing geopolitical tensions,” Citi analysts wrote, referring to ongoing structural challenges at the brand.

Gucci, once Kering’s main profit engine, has seen its quarterly sales roughly halve compared with 2023 levels, reflecting the fallout from aggressive price increases, changing aesthetics and management churn that have alienated parts of its customer base.

Meanwhile, Hermès reported a slowdown in sales growth, suggesting that even the most resilient players in the sector are not immune to geopolitical shocks.

The company posted revenue of 4.07 billion euros ($4.80 billion) for the first quarter, representing a 5.6% increase at constant exchange rates.

However, the figure fell short of analysts’ expectations of 4.16 billion euros and marked a slowdown from the 9.8% growth recorded in the previous quarter.

At current exchange rates, sales declined 1% year-on-year, as currency fluctuations wiped out 290 million euros in revenue.

Growth in key product categories, including Birkin and Kelly bags, silk scarves and perfumes, came in at 6%, below the 7.1% expected by analysts.

The company attributed part of the weakness to declining tourist flows linked to the conflict.

Sales in the Middle East fell 6% to 160 million euros, while demand in key tourist destinations such as the UK, Italy and Switzerland also weakened.

“The Middle East, down by 6%, was of course significantly impacted by the geopolitical events affecting the region in March,” said chief financial officer Eric du Halgouet.

He added that sales in luxury malls in the United Arab Emirates dropped by 40% in March.

The Middle East has been one of the fastest-growing regions for luxury brands in recent years, accounting for roughly 5% of global consumption.

However, the conflict has disrupted travel patterns and consumer confidence, undermining a key pillar of demand.

“It was definitely a strategic region. Everything was okay,” said Carole Madjo, head of luxury research at Barclays told Reuters.

That picture has changed sharply in recent weeks.

Sales in major shopping destinations in Dubai and Abu Dhabi have declined significantly, with some brands reporting drops of 30% to 50% at the Mall of the Emirates in March, Reuters reported citing sources.

The impact extends beyond the region itself.

Middle Eastern tourists are among the highest spenders globally, and their reduced travel has hit luxury sales in Europe, particularly in cities and airport retail outlets that depend heavily on international visitors.

Dubai, a key hub for luxury retail and tourism, has also been directly affected by the conflict.

Infrastructure disruptions and security concerns have dented its image as a stable destination, with analysts warning that recovery could take months even if tensions ease.

The latest earnings underscore the fragile state of the luxury sector, which has already been grappling with slowing demand, trade tensions, and economic uncertainty.

Since the end of the post-pandemic luxury boom in 2022, the combined market capitalisation of LVMH and Kering has fallen by more than 100 billion euros.

Industry-wide sales declined 2% last year, according to Bain & Company, and expectations for a rebound this year are now under pressure.

Analysts warn that the ripple effects of the war could extend beyond the Gulf region.

Bernstein said higher oil prices, rising travel costs, and potential financial market volatility could “easily disrupt” luxury demand globally, especially in the United States.

“If it now turns out that whatever luxury recovery we were hoping for in 2026 is not going to happen, and it's going to be postponed at best into the second half or into next year, I don't think anybody can be surprised by it,” said Christopher Rossbach, portfolio manager at J Stern & Co in London in the Reuters report.

While companies such as Hermès maintain confidence in their medium-term outlook, the near-term environment remains highly uncertain, with geopolitical risks, currency volatility, and shifting consumer behaviour continuing to weigh on the sector.

Hermès International Société en commandite par actions (HERM:CA) Shareholder/Analyst Call Transcript

On May 14, 2026, we present a DCF analysis for Hermes International SA HESAY , a luxury goods company currently facing significant price performance challenges. Over the past year, the stock has declined by 34.9%, reflecting broader market trends and company-specific factors.

DCF Earnings-based intrinsic value of $156.68 vs current price of $186.86 (margin of safety: -8.4%) DCF FCF-based intrinsic value of $132.60 vs current price (second opinion shows modest overvaluation) GF Score™ of 92/100 indicates high reliability of the DCF inputs What Is HESAY Worth? DCF Earnings-Based Model The DCF earnings-based model evaluates the intrinsic value of HESAY by projecting its future earnings growth and discounting them to present value. We assume a current EPS of $5.15 and a robust 10-year growth rate of 19.6%. The discount rate is set at 11%, combining the risk-free rate and equity risk premium.

Parameter Value Current EPS (TTM, excl. non-recurring) $5.15 10-Year Growth Rate 19.6% 10-Year Treasury Rate 4.33% Discount Rate (ceil(Treasury) + 6%) 11% Terminal Growth Rate 4% In this two-stage model, we first calculate the growth stage value, where EPS grows at 19.6% per year for the first 10 years, discounted at 11%. This results in a growth stage value of $79.43 per share. Following this, we enter the terminal phase, where growth slows to a 4% terminal rate for the next 10 years, yielding a terminal stage value of $77.25 per share.

Stage Description Value Growth Stage (Years 1-10) EPS growing at 19.6%, discounted at 11% $79.43 Terminal Stage (Years 11-20) 4% terminal growth, discounted at 11% $77.25 Intrinsic Value Growth + Terminal $156.68 Comparing the intrinsic value of $156.68 to the current price of $186.86, we find that the stock is fairly valued with a margin of safety of -8.4%. It is important to note that GuruFocus uses EPS without non-recurring items, as research shows stock prices correlate more closely with earnings than free cash flow. For further details, visit the HESAY DCF Calculator.

What Does the Free Cash Flow DCF Say? The free cash flow (FCF)-based intrinsic value for HESAY is calculated at $132.60. This value contrasts with the earnings-based intrinsic value, suggesting a modestly overvalued status with a margin of safety of -40.9%. The divergence between the two models indicates that while the earnings-based model suggests fair valuation, the FCF model points towards overvaluation, highlighting the importance of considering multiple valuation perspectives.

How Does GF Value™ Compare to the DCF Models? According to GuruFocus, the GF Value™ for HESAY is $293.36, indicating that the stock is 36.3% undervalued based on historical trading multiples, past business growth, and future performance estimates. While the DCF earnings-based model suggests fair valuation and the FCF model indicates modest overvaluation, the GF Value™ presents a more optimistic view, suggesting that the stock may be undervalued. For more information, visit the GF Value™ page.

What Does HESAY's GF Score™ Tell Us? The GF Score™ ranks stocks from 0 to 100 based on five key aspects: Financial Strength, Profitability, Growth, Valuation, and Momentum. Stocks with higher GF Score™ values have been found to generate higher long-term returns (backtested 2006-2021). HESAY has a GF Score™ of 92/100, indicating strong fundamentals and growth potential. The predictability rank is 1/5 stars, suggesting that the DCF model may be less reliable for this stock.

Metric Rating GF Score™ 92/100 Financial Strength 9/10 Profitability 10/10 Growth 10/10 Valuation 4/10 Momentum 4/10

Key Assumptions and Limitations It is important to note that DCF models are highly sensitive to growth rate and discount rate assumptions. Stocks with low predictability ratings, such as HESAY's 1/5 stars, produce less reliable DCF estimates. Additionally, the terminal growth rate of 4% is a simplifying assumption that may not fully capture future market conditions.

What This Means for Investors In summary, the DCF earnings model suggests that HESAY is fairly valued, while the FCF model indicates it is modestly overvalued. The GF Value™ presents a more favorable perspective, suggesting the stock is undervalued. Overall, the consensus leans towards a fair valuation, but investors should consider the varying perspectives from each model before making decisions. For the full DCF analysis, visit the HESAY DCF Calculator. You can also explore the GF Value™ page, or use the GuruFocus Stock Screener to find undervalued predictable companies.

Frequently Asked Questions What is HESAY's intrinsic value based on DCF?

HESAY's intrinsic value based on DCF is $172.45 (earnings-based) and $132.60 (FCF-based).

Is HESAY overvalued or undervalued?

Based on the DCF models and GF Value™, HESAY appears to be fairly valued.

How reliable is the DCF model for HESAY?

The DCF model for HESAY is less reliable due to its predictability rank of 1/5 stars.

This stock alert was generated using automated technology and GuruFocus financial data to provide readers with timely and accurate market reporting. This content was reviewed by GuruFocus editorial team prior to publication. Please send any questions or comments about this story to [email protected].

Hermès is now rated a strong buy after a rare 43% share price collapse, despite resilient fundamentals and premium brand positioning. Q1 2026 revenue growth of 5.6% missed expectations, but long-term EPS trends remain robust and profit margins have expanded to nearly 30%. Temporary headwinds—Middle East conflict, travel disruptions, and industry-wide weakness—do not threaten HESAY's secular growth or exclusive client base.