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GSK PLC (LSE:GSK, NYSE:GSK) got a grudging nod from Citi on Thursday, as the investment bank lifted its earnings forecasts for the drugmaker but stopped well short of a buy call.The shares edged up 0.31% to 1,922p as Citi kept its 'neutral' rating, tweaking its model after GSK's Accelerate Growth event and second-quarter results.
At the heart of the update is a £1.9 billion cost-savings drive being funnelled straight back into research and development.
That cash is helping bankroll 20 phase III trials due to launch in 2026, of which Citi has so far written 12 into its numbers.
Those trials, plus the broader economies, should nudge earnings per share 1% to 4% higher between 2027 and 2030.
Some of the savings are also expected to cushion margins when HIV drug dolutegravir loses exclusivity late this decade.
In the same note, Citi flagged that external data on many of the coming trials is still thin, leaving its forecasts on shaky foundations.
Its projected 2% compound annual earnings growth remains the feeblest in the European pharma pack.
Management, the bank warned, must sharpen its execution to win the market round on growth beyond 2031.
Hanging over it all is the Jemperli litigation with AnaptysBio, with a post-trial hearing set for 20 October and a ruling expected by early 2027.