Furthermore, we also have to keep in mind that there are several central banks in play and could be raising rates. We’ll just have to wait and see. There is a pushback on the side of the safety bid. There is some of that, and that does help gold.
Longer Term, I Am Bullish on Gold Longer term, I am bullish on gold, but I also recognize that right now we have the European Central Bank decision on Thursday, PPI on Thursday, CPI on Friday coming out of the United States, and the Federal Reserve on Wednesday of next week, with the Bank of Japan on Thursday.
So there’s a lot going on that could move the gold markets, and it does not surprise me that perhaps we may take a moment here and simply grind away. I look at this as a market that has a reasonably well-defined range between $4,500 on the top and $4,600 as your outer barrier, with $4,400 as your floor.
You can see that we have broken above $4,500 for a moment, but I think that’s a resistance zone at this point. Markets get a little ahead of themselves. People start to take profit with so much uncertainty. There is certainly an underlying bid to the gold market, but momentum is still hard to find.
Gold prices rose in India on Wednesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 13,375.71 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, up compared with the INR 13,301.55 it cost on Tuesday.
The price for Gold increased to INR 156,011.30 per tola from INR 155,146.70 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in INR
1 Gram
13,375.71
10 Grams
133,756.80
Tola
156,011.30
Troy Ounce
416,031.50
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices rose in Saudi Arabia on Wednesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 529.25 Saudi Riyals (SAR) per gram, up compared with the SAR 525.86 it cost on Tuesday.
The price for Gold increased to SAR 6,173.29 per tola from SAR 6,133.51 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in SAR
1 Gram
529.25
10 Grams
5,292.69
Tola
6,173.29
Troy Ounce
16,461.63
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Saudi Arabia by adapting international prices (USD/SAR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
TD Securities remains constructive on South African Rand (ZAR), noting that domestic headwinds have failed to generate sustained weakness and that USD/ZAR’s downtrend remains intact. With Gold prices supported and global risk sentiment resilient, they argue ZAR offers attractive carry and see USD/ZAR rallies as opportunities to sell.
USD/ZAR rallies seen as selling opportunities"In South Africa, domestic headwinds have repeatedly failed to generate sustained ZAR weakness."
"USD/ZAR ignored new domestic political corruption allegation headlines from Q2 '26."
"While the unexpected SARB rate hold decision briefly drove USD/ZAR above the 200d SMA in July, market was able to look past this policy misstep and push USD/ZAR back below 16.00 in August."
"Global macro variables such as gold price and equity risk sentiment continue to serve as the main drivers for ZAR."
"USD/ZAR spot downtrend remains intact. We still view USD/ZAR rallies as selling opportunities so long as gold remains supported above $4,000/oz and global equity sentiment stays resilient."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
This is a market that has a lot of different things going on at the same time, not the least of which would be geopolitical risk and oil causing a lot of potential inflationary concerns.
There are several things coming up in the next few days that could have an influence on gold, not the least of which would be CPI on Friday, as it could influence the Federal Reserve next Wednesday and the expectations around a rate hike.
The Safety Bid Is Still Out There With the War The ECB is expected to raise rates by a quarter basis point this week. And with that, the question is, will higher interest rates continue to keep gold somewhat suppressed?
The safety bid is still out there with the war, but ironically, the war is also causing inflation and inflation expectations that are keeping the metals suppressed. So, you have a situation where gold doesn’t have anywhere to go.
What we really will be watching for, in my opinion, is any type of divergence in central bank behavior. If one central bank sounds a little bit more dovish than the other, that can influence the US dollar, which has a significant influence on gold.
Right now, it looks very neutral, and that does make a certain amount of sense because, with all of this information coming out, and of course, the errant Middle East headline, this is a tight market to be trading.
Gold (XAU/USD) struggles to hold early gains and reverses course on Tuesday as a modest rebound in the US Dollar (USD) and rising Oil prices weigh on the precious metal. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades around $4,400 after reaching an intraday high near $4,443.
Tensions in the Middle East intensified after Iran-backed Houthis attacked energy facilities in four southern Saudi cities earlier on Tuesday. The escalation comes after the United States attacked Iranian vessels and Tehran targeted US warships and Oil tankers over the weekend.
Oil prices extend their advance, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) trading around $91.80 per barrel after reaching $92.48, its highest level since June 8.
The latest hostilities also helped the US Dollar recover some ground after its recent weakness, which was largely driven by a sharp rally in the Japanese Yen (JPY). The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, trades around 98.97 after recovering from 98.72, its lowest level since August 21.
Gold’s near-term outlook remains challenging. The metal is widely viewed as a hedge against inflation and geopolitical tensions, but traders are paying greater attention to how higher Oil prices could affect inflation and interest rates. Gold offers no yield and usually performs better when borrowing costs are low.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) has not raised interest rates so far this year, but policymakers have repeatedly expressed concern about inflation staying above the central bank’s 2% target for too long. Friday’s stronger-than-expected US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report eased worries about the labour market and gives the Fed more room to keep its focus on inflation.
Attention therefore turns to the Fed’s September 15-16 meeting, with the CME FedWatch Tool showing around a 60% probability of a 25-basis-point (bps) rate hike. The decision is likely to hinge on this week’s US inflation data.
The US Producer Price Index (PPI) is due on Thursday, followed by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Friday. Hotter readings could strengthen the case for a rate hike, while softer figures could ease expectations for higher borrowing costs and offer some relief to Gold. The US economic calendar is relatively light on Tuesday, with only the ADP Employment Change 4-week average scheduled for release.
Technical analysis: Bears eye $4,350 as right shoulder of H&S pattern forms
On the daily chart, XAU/USD holds above the 50-day and 100-day simple moving averages (SMAs) at around $4,255 and $4,346, respectively, keeping the broader near-term structure supported.
However, a potential Head-and-Shoulders pattern is taking shape, with the right shoulder currently forming. The neckline is located near $4,350 and is reinforced by the 100-day SMA, making this area an important support zone. Momentum is neutral, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 50, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) has eased toward 23, suggesting that directional momentum is losing strength.
A decisive break below the $4,350 neckline would confirm the bearish pattern and expose the 50-day SMA near $4,255, followed by horizontal support around $4,150 and the psychological $4,000 mark.
On the topside, immediate resistance comes from the 200-day SMA near $4,537, with a more significant barrier further up at the horizontal level around $4,700. A sustained move above these layers would be needed to re-open a stronger bullish extension in Gold.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Geopolitics have boosted demand for physical and futures markets for gold. The US dollar is under pressure from diverging monetary policies. The US dollar has been falling for four of the last five consecutive days. Investors expect the ECB to tighten monetary policy at its next meeting, with signals from Christine Lagarde that the cycle will continue. Rumours are circulating in the forex market that the Bank of Japan is choosing between a 50bp hike later this month and 3 consecutive 25-point increases at each of its next three meetings. This divergence in monetary policy is creating headwinds for the US dollar index.
Adding fuel to the EURUSD rally is the faster rise in European bond yields relative to US Treasuries. This increases their relative attractiveness and raises the prospect of capital flows from the US to Europe. In reality, however, the rise in yields is being driven partly by sell-offs in French and Italian debt amid budgetary concerns, and in German debt following the CDU’s defeat in the regional elections. Elevated political risks are therefore weighing on the euro.
Meanwhile, Brent crude’s rally towards $100 per barrel, against the backdrop of escalating conflict in the Middle East, risks fuelling inflation and prompting the Fed to tighten monetary policy. This would create an unfavourable environment for gold. However, gold’s supporters are not giving up. In August, the People’s Bank of China increased its gold reserves by 650,000 ounces, marking the 22nd consecutive month of growth.
Goldman Sachs believes that gold is a hedge over the period of threats to the Fed’s independence, unorthodox government intervention in currency and debt markets, a ‘debasement trade’ and escalating fiscal problems. Amundi is increasing the proportion of gold in its portfolios, citing its affordability, liquidity and use as a risk-hedging instrument.
Société Générale believes that the conflict in the Middle East is not a negative factor for Gold over the long term. What began as a geopolitical shock has turned into a broad-based build-up of physical and futures positions, involving retail investors, professional asset managers and derivatives traders. The firm describes the precious metals market as bullish across the board.
The FxPro Analyst Team
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Gold (XAU/USD) posts marginal gains for the third straight day on Tuesday amid risk-off sentiment as tensions in the Middle East escalate and Oil prices rally, strengthening the case for higher interest rates in the world's major economies. Against this background, the XAU/USD pair explores prices below $4,400 during the European trading hours, extending its decline from last week’s highs in the $4,500 area.
Risk appetite faded on Tuesday as Tehran escalated its threats, warning that it might attack energy infrastructure in Gulf countries, including US Oil and Gas sites, in case of new attacks on its assets.
With hopes of a negotiated end to the war vanishing, Oil prices continue rising. Brent Crude stretched to levels above $97.00 per barrel, nearing the feared $100 psychological level, boosting inflationary pressures and prompting central banks to adopt more restrictive policies.
Technical Analysis: Key support is at $4,300.
XAU/USD trades at $4,394 after being capped ahead of the key 200-day simple moving average (SMA) last week, with momentum indicators in the daily chart highlighting incipient bearish traction. The Relative Strength Index (14) is hovering around the 50 level, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) treads within negative territory.
On the downside, Friday's low at the $4,370 area is likely to test bears, but the key support remains between $4,300 and $4,285, the August 14 and September 2 lows respectively, and the neckline of a bearish Head & Shoulders (H&S) pattern.
On the topside, bulls face an important cluster of resistances between last week's highs at $4,510 and the mentioned 200-day SMA just above at $4,536, while a break higher would expose the August 25 high, just below $4,700.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Standard Chartered has restored gold to "Overweight" and raised its three-month target to $4,750, followed by $5,000 over 12 months. The Gold price slipped back towards $4,404 on Tuesday as markets continued to digest stronger US employment data and the prospect of another Federal Reserve rate increase.
Standard Chartered sees the pullback giving way to renewed gains.
The bank has raised its three-month gold forecast to $4,750 an ounce and its 12-month target to $5,000.
It has also restored gold to an Overweight position.
“We have raised our three- and 12-month gold price targets to USD 4,750/oz and USD 5,000/oz, respectively,” said Standard Chartered Senior Investment Strategist Cindy Lam.
From the current XAU/USD price, the shorter target implies an advance of about 7.9%.
A move to $5,000 would require a gain of approximately 13.5%.
The three-month forecast is less demanding than that percentage suggests.
Gold traded as high as $4,696 during August, leaving Standard Chartered’s $4,750 target only 1.1% above the recent peak.
Reaching $5,000 would require a more decisive breakout.
US Dollar pullback revives the gold case Standard Chartered said gold’s “price outlook has notably improved alongside a sharp pullback in the USD”.
That makes the US Dollar central to the forecast.
A renewed decline in the US currency would reduce the cost of gold for overseas buyers and support another challenge of the August high.
The immediate backdrop has become less comfortable.
The official US employment report showed that payrolls increased by 162,000 in August, while unemployment held at 4.1%.
The stronger labour-market reading lifted US yields and reinforced the risk that interest rates stay higher for longer.
Gold has already shown its sensitivity to that shift.
Our earlier coverage examined how renewed Federal Reserve tightening expectations hit gold, silver and Bitcoin after Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech.
Standard Chartered’s revised forecast nevertheless adds another major-bank call for substantially higher bullion prices.
It follows UniCredit’s $4,400-$5,200 year-end forecast range, although the two forecasts cover different periods.
Image: Gold price in USD one-month chart The one-month chart captures a sharp rise towards $4,696, followed by a reversal to $4,284 and a recovery above $4,400.
That leaves the August peak as the first test of Standard Chartered’s forecast, with $4,750 sitting just beyond it.
The next major policy decision is scheduled for September 16, following the Federal Reserve’s two-day meeting.
A softer Dollar would support Standard Chartered’s call, while another rise in US yields would make the route back to $4,750 more difficult.
Gold, silver correlations with dollar near historical extremes
DXY sits just above an important support zone
US inflation next key risk event for markets
Disorderly yen carry trade unwind remains a left-tail risk
Gold and silver have essentially become a play on directional movements in the US dollar over the past month, and especially the past fortnight, with the strength of the inverse relationship pushing towards historical extremes.
Dollar relationship moves into rare territory
While the inverse relationship between gold, silver and other precious metals with the US dollar has been evident for decades, the strength of the relationship is unusually high right now.
Source: LSEG
Over the past 10 trading days, gold’s correlation with DXY has fallen to around -0.88, while silver’s stands at -0.83. Those readings sit around the 3rd percentile for gold and 4th percentile for silver relative to their respective histories, meaning the inverse relationship has only been stronger during a very small proportion of comparable windows.
The 20-day relationship is also tight, with gold at around -0.76 and silver at -0.73, ranking near the 6th and 5th percentiles respectively.
With the DXY just above an important support level, should that extreme relationship be maintained, a downside break in the DXY points to the increased risk of renewed upside across the precious metals complex.
Yen strength adds pressure to the dollar
Source: Tradingview
DXY finds itself struggling beneath the 200-day moving average, having slid back beneath it late last week, and is now perched above a support zone comprising the May 29 low of 98.75, along with the 50% retracement of the 2026 low-high at 98.68.
There were two unsuccessful probes beneath the zone back in August, but with the oscillators rolling over, indicating downside momentum is building again, the risk of a downside break appears to be growing, especially with the Japanese yen continuing to strengthen on Tuesday, seeing USD/JPY hit levels not seen since February.
Should the unwind be sustained, it would only add to downside risk for the broader DXY index, especially should the euro join the move.
Gold wedged between key levels
Source: Tradingview
Early gains in Asia have reversed in the latter parts of the session, with the push higher stalling just beneath the confluence of the August downtrend and horizontal resistance at $4,450 an ounce. Those levels are the immediate focal point overhead.
Underneath where the price now trades, $4,367 is the first level on the radar given it acted as support and resistance on multiple occasions going back to the early parts of this year. Further below, the 23.6% Fib retracement of the January to June low-high is located at $4,333 an ounce. Dips beneath that level, down to the early September low of $4,283, have made for good buying over recent months.
The message from the oscillators is one of neutrality. RSI (14) sits just beneath the 50 while MACD is running parallel to the signal line, sitting just in negative territory.
With the technical picture for gold offering little from a directional breakout perspective, dollar performance around the US inflation data on Thursday and Friday may be influential in determining which direction the price shifts next.
Silver triangle points to breakout risk
Source: Tradingview
Like gold, silver has staged a sizable reversal late in the Asian session, mirroring similar price action in Asian tech stocks that opened strongly before gains were slowly whittled away.
From a technical perspective, the price on the four-hourly continues to coil in an ascending triangle, with moves above $67 towards $67.50 resistance capping gains for the moment, while dips towards the uptrend established in early September continue to attract buying.
While ascending triangles are often associated with bullish breakouts, I would not be rushing to establish longs without a clear and sustained push above $67.50, given the iffy price beneath it recently.
The cautious view is only strengthened by the risk of forced yen carry trade unwinds, some of which have likely found their way into the precious metals space, creating the risk of disorderly downside moves across the precious metals complex. Whichever direction the price breaks from the structure may be informative as to where directional risks lie over the medium term.
Overhead, silver struggled underneath $70 in late August, and while there was one bullish breakout that eventually occurred, it stalled at $70.90, a level that acted as support and resistance on multiple occasions going back to late April.
On the downside, $65.50, the September 4 low of $64.75, and $63.30 are the focal points before $62.90 comes into view, another support and resistance level going back to earlier this year.
The message from the oscillators is neutral with RSI (14) sitting at 48 while MACD is flatlining above the signal line, holding just in positive territory. Focus should therefore be on price rather than adoption of a specific directional bias, with DXY gyrations another useful input when assessing potential setups.
Gold prices rose in Philippines on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 8,921.62 Philippine Pesos (PHP) per gram, up compared with the PHP 8,869.37 it cost on Monday.
The price for Gold increased to PHP 104,056.90 per tola from PHP 103,450.60 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in PHP
1 Gram
8,921.62
10 Grams
89,215.74
Tola
104,056.90
Troy Ounce
277,489.70
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Philippines by adapting international prices (USD/PHP) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices rose in United Arab Emirates on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 523.68 United Arab Emirates Dirhams (AED) per gram, up compared with the AED 521.07 it cost on Monday.
The price for Gold increased to AED 6,108.06 per tola from AED 6,077.69 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in AED
1 Gram
523.68
10 Grams
5,236.84
Tola
6,108.06
Troy Ounce
16,288.12
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in United Arab Emirates by adapting international prices (USD/AED) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices rose in Pakistan on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 39,601.85 Pakistani Rupees (PKR) per gram, up compared with the PKR 39,392.19 it cost on Monday.
The price for Gold increased to PKR 461,932.20 per tola from PKR 459,462.80 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in PKR
1 Gram
39,601.85
10 Grams
396,039.00
Tola
461,932.20
Troy Ounce
1,231,756.00
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Pakistan by adapting international prices (USD/PKR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices rose in Malaysia on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 577.89 Malaysian Ringgits (MYR) per gram, up compared with the MYR 575.27 it cost on Monday.
The price for Gold increased to MYR 6,740.38 per tola from MYR 6,709.78 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in MYR
1 Gram
577.89
10 Grams
5,778.90
Tola
6,740.38
Troy Ounce
17,974.36
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Malaysia by adapting international prices (USD/MYR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices rose in India on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 13,492.28 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, up compared with the INR 13,428.30 it cost on Monday.
The price for Gold increased to INR 157,370.30 per tola from INR 156,625.00 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in INR
1 Gram
13,492.28
10 Grams
134,921.80
Tola
157,370.30
Troy Ounce
419,663.80
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold has snapped a two-day losing streak early Tuesday, staging a decent comeback toward $4,450 after finding strong buyers below the $4,400 level.
Gold looks north as Japanese Yen keeps surgingGold is looking to resume its recovery from four-week lows of $4,283 hit last week, capitalizing on sustained US Dollar weakness across the board.
The US Dollar sits at two-week lows against its six major peers, as the ongoing USD/JPY sell-off counters hawkish bets around the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate outlook and Iran’s retaliation warnings.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) extends its rally to seven-month highs versus the Greenback after Japan’s wage growth data and second-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) revision bolstered expectations for a faster pace of the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) tightening.
This aggressively hawkish BoJ repricing continues to weigh on the USD/JPY pair and the USD, acting as a tailwind for the bright metal.
However, it remains to be seen if Gold sustains its recovery momentum, as Oil prices remain elevated at seven-week highs, keeping inflation concerns and Fed rate hike bets alive.
The black gold stays underpinned by fresh Iranian threats in the Persian Gulf.
Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf warned after the US and Iran traded strikes on shipping over the weekend, "strike our assets, and you get struck."
On Tuesday, Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, Mohsen Rezaei, reissued dual economic and military threats on X.
Later in the day, Gold could experience volatility as US traders return after the extended weekend and react to the geopolitical headlines, while repositioning ahead of Friday’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data release, which could seal in a rate hike next week.
Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart
In the daily chart, XAU/USD trades at $4,425.55, holding a mild bullish bias as it sits above the 50-day and 100-day simple moving averages (SMAs) at roughly $4,255.70 and $4,347.13, respectively, while remaining capped by the 21-day SMA near $4,465.07. The Relative Strength Index (14) around 52 suggests modest positive momentum, hinting that buyers retain the upper hand so long as price holds over the underlying moving-average support band.
On the topside, immediate resistance emerges at the 21-day SMA around $4,465.07, with the longer-term 200-day SMA higher up near $4,536.87 acting as a subsequent barrier if bulls extend the advance. On the downside, initial support is seen at the 100-day SMA near $4,347.13, ahead of the deeper 50-day SMA support zone around $4,255.70, where a break would undermine the current constructive tone and expose a more pronounced corrective phase.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Gold rally shifts from shock-driven spike to structural convictionAnalysts at Societe Generale argue that Gold has now "entered a new phase of its 2026 bull run," characterised less by short-term speculative flows and more by "broad-based, structural conviction across every category of market participant." What initially "began as a geopolitical shock" has, in their view, "evolved over the following months into something far more durable": a "synchronised build-up of physical, futures, and options exposure" that "now spans retail investors, professional money managers, and derivatives traders alike." This alignment across physical holdings, futures positioning and options strategies underpins their assessment that the current Gold uptrend is being driven by multiple, mutually reinforcing demand channels rather than transient momentum alone.
Inflation FAQs Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls.
Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money.
Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.
Gold started a downside correction from $4,700 and tested the $4,280 support. A bearish trend line is forming with resistance at $4,480 on the 4-hour chart. WTI Crude Oil remained elevated and might continue to rise toward $95.00 or $100.00. EUR/USD started a recovery wave after it found support near 1.1565. Gold Price Technical Analysis Gold failed to surpass $4,700 and corrected gains against the US Dollar. The price dipped below $4,500 before the bulls appeared near $4,280.
The 4-hour chart of XAU/USD indicates that the price formed a lot at $4,282 and recently attempted a recovery wave. The price climbed above $4,400 and $4,450. The price even spiked above $4,480, the 100 Simple Moving Average (red, 4 hours), and the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $4,696 swing high to the $4,2852 low.
On the upside, immediate resistance could be $4,465. The next major resistance might be $4,480. There is also a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $4,480.
A clear move above $4,480 could open the door for more upside. In the stated case, the bulls could aim for a move toward $4,565 or even $4,580. Any more gains might send the price toward the $4,680 level.
If there is a fresh decline, the price could test the 200 Simple Moving Average (green, 4 hours) at $4,320. The first major support sits at $4,300. The next support could be $4,280, below which the price might slide to $4,220. The main support sits at $4,20. Any more losses might call for a test of $4,050 or even $4,020 in the coming days.
Looking at WTI Crude Oil, the price could stay in a positive zone, and the bulls might aim for a larger move to test $100.00.
Economic Releases to Watch Today
US ADP Employment Change 4-week Average- Forecast 10K, versus 11.75K previous. BoE Monetary Policy Report Hearings. ECB’s Elderson speech.
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Societe Generale analysts Michael Haigh and Jeremy Sellem describe a broad-based Gold bull market in 2026, driven by ETFs, futures and options positioning. They highlight strong physical ETF inflows, near-record futures exposure by money managers and a structurally bullish options skew. The report stresses that multiple independent demand channels are reinforcing each other, supporting a constructive stance on Gold over the medium term.
Bullish signals across all channels"Gold has entered a new phase of its 2026 bull run, one defined less by speculative momentum and more by broad-based, structural conviction across every category of market participant. What began as a geopolitical shock, evolved over the following months into something far more durable: a synchronised build-up of physical, futures, and options exposure that now spans retail investors, professional money managers, and derivatives traders alike."
"In August, gold ETFs registered a substantial 201 tonnes of net inflows, marking the third-largest monthly addition on record in tonnage terms after now famous world events: February 2009 and the stimulus package announced by the newly inaugurated Obama administration, and March 2020 with the start of the lockdown for Covid globally. This month's inflow surpassed the strong inflows recorded in March 2022 following Russia's invasion of Ukraine and in September 2012 after the Federal Reserve's announcement of QE3."
"In notional exposure terms (contracts x price x contract size), money managers' net positioning reached the second-largest long exposure on record, behind only January 2026, when gold broke through $5,400/oz to an all-time high. This time, with prices roughly $1,000/oz lower, the scale of the dollar exposure is even more striking: it is no longer simply a price story."
"Overall, investors appear to be pricing near-term uncertainty via puts while steadily building call exposure further out the curve, consistent with a constructive medium-term outlook for gold."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Higher Interest Rates Pressure Gold The jobs report on Friday was an addition of 156,000 jobs, and that was basically triple what was expected. This has rate-hike expectations up to about 60% for next week, and that is quite a bit different than it was. This is a driver that is being focused on by many at the moment.
Higher interest rates really punish non-yielding metals, and you are starting to see some hesitation. This all started not this past Friday, but the Friday before, with Kevin Warsh out at Jackson Hole talking in a very hawkish tone about the US economy.
The market is currently sitting just above the 50-day EMA and the 200-day EMA indicators, and that could cause a little bit of a push in here.
The critical event for this week, more likely than not, should be US CPI numbers. The Fed meeting next week is going to be the real show. But Treasury yields and Fed rate expectations are the real drivers of gold at the moment, which in the short term, remains fairly neutral.
US CPI – GoldAll eyes are on Friday's US CPI report, which will dictate the Federal Reserve’s September 16 rate decision. While August’s 162,000 payroll rebound raised the chances of a rate hike to 59%, central bank leaders stress that inflation data will decide the outcome. A higher-than-expected inflation figure would lock in a quarter-point increase and boost the US dollar, while a cooler reading could keep interest rates on hold and weaken the greenback.
Meanwhile, gold fell toward 4,400 as higher bond yields and rate-hike expectations weighed on non-yielding metals, leaving gold prices equally dependent on the incoming CPI data. A sell-off beneath the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at 4,350 and, more importantly, below the 4,310 strong support would increase speculation of further decreases toward 4,200.
ECB rate decision – EUR/USDMarkets broadly expect the European Central Bank to raise borrowing costs by a quarter-point to 2.5% this Thursday as rising energy expenses push inflation beyond 3%. While investors anticipate another potential move by December, economists expect this to be the final increase to avoid damaging economic growth, especially with wage expansion slowing and broader inflation remaining muted. The euro's reaction will depend heavily on Christine Lagarde’s press conference, any signal of a December hike could lift EURUSD, whereas a focus on economic risks could push the single currency lower.
Currently, EUR/USD is fluctuating within the 20- and 200-day SMA, slightly above the 1.1600 handle. A successful climb beyond it would endorse another bullish wave, heading toward the 1.1710 barrier. On the other hand, a slide below the 50-day SMA may switch the short-term outlook to negative.
Escalating US-Iran conflict drives oil higher – WTI Crude OilRising Middle East conflict drove crude oil past 92.00 level today, extending last week’s momentum as reciprocal strikes between American and Iranian forces sparked fears of enduring regional supply bottlenecks. US naval forces targeted Iranian oil tankers following missile launches directed at warships, prompting Tehran to declare restricted shipping routes near the critical Strait of Hormuz waterway. In response, OPEC+ chose to halt its monthly output increases by keeping October production levels unchanged, even as prolonged transit hazards forced the cartel to lower its current-year global demand growth forecast to 580,000 barrels daily.
WTI crude oil is ticking marginally higher above the 92.00 region with the next strong resistance coming from the 94.60 barrier. A step up could open the way for a touch of the 99.00 psychological mark, raising the likelihood of a bullish outlook. Alternatively, only a drop below the 200-day SMA at 80.40 could endorse the bearish outlook.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Gold prices fell in Philippines on Monday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 8,872.08 Philippine Pesos (PHP) per gram, down compared with the PHP 8,937.06 it cost on Friday.
The price for Gold decreased to PHP 103,481.80 per tola from PHP 104,240.10 per tola on friday.
Unit measure
Gold Price in PHP
1 Gram
8,872.08
10 Grams
88,718.70
Tola
103,481.80
Troy Ounce
275,951.60
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Philippines by adapting international prices (USD/PHP) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices fell in United Arab Emirates on Monday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 519.25 United Arab Emirates Dirhams (AED) per gram, down compared with the AED 523.16 it cost on Friday.
The price for Gold decreased to AED 6,056.43 per tola from AED 6,102.06 per tola on friday.
Unit measure
Gold Price in AED
1 Gram
519.25
10 Grams
5,192.50
Tola
6,056.43
Troy Ounce
16,150.53
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in United Arab Emirates by adapting international prices (USD/AED) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices fell in Pakistan on Monday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 39,216.23 Pakistani Rupees (PKR) per gram, down compared with the PKR 39,509.02 it cost on Friday.
The price for Gold decreased to PKR 457,410.40 per tola from PKR 460,825.40 per tola on friday.
Unit measure
Gold Price in PKR
1 Gram
39,216.23
10 Grams
392,162.30
Tola
457,410.40
Troy Ounce
1,219,744.00
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Pakistan by adapting international prices (USD/PKR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices fell in Malaysia on Monday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 573.16 Malaysian Ringgits (MYR) per gram, down compared with the MYR 576.80 it cost on Friday.
The price for Gold decreased to MYR 6,685.20 per tola from MYR 6,727.72 per tola on Friday.
Unit measure
Gold Price in MYR
1 Gram
573.16
10 Grams
5,731.58
Tola
6,685.20
Troy Ounce
17,827.21
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Malaysia by adapting international prices (USD/MYR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
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Gold fell almost $100 on Friday following surprise surge in US nonfarm payrolls that eased worries of US policymakers and boosted expectations of rate hike on Sep 16 policy meeting.
Upbeat US labor data pushed the metal’s price down to over 2.5% and signals that gold would register the second consecutive weekly closing in red.
The fresh drop also weakened technical picture on daily chart as 14-d momentum is pressuring the centreline and south-heading RSI is entering neutrality zone (50), although MAs remain in mixed setup (30/100 bull-cross vs 10/200 death-cross) signaling that further action to the downside is still needed to verify developing negative signals.
Close below previous significant supports at $4400 zone will be minimum requirement, with extension below daily Kijun-sen ($4358) to strengthen negative structure and expose $4319 (50% retracement of $3942/$4697) which contained several attacks so far, and $4268 (daily cloud top) in extension.
Repeated close below daily Tenkan-sen ($4489) is needed to keep near-term bias with bears.
Markets shift focus to US Aug inflation data (due next Friday) which will provide significant information to the central bank ahead of policy meeting.
The information contained in this document was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed herein are in good faith, but are subject to change without notice. No liability accepted whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this document.
Gold fell almost $100 on Friday following surprise surge in US nonfarm payrolls that eased worries of US policymakers and boosted expectations of rate hike on Sep 16 policy meeting.
Upbeat US labor data pushed the metal’s price down to over 2.5% and signals that gold would register the second consecutive weekly closing in red.
The fresh drop also weakened technical picture on daily chart as 14-d momentum is pressuring the centreline and south-heading RSI is entering neutrality zone (50), although MAs remain in mixed setup (30/100 bull-cross vs 10/200 death-cross) signaling that further action to the downside is still needed to verify developing negative signals.
Close below previous significant supports at $4400 zone will be minimum requirement, with extension below daily Kijun-sen ($4358) to strengthen negative structure and expose $4319 (50% retracement of $3942/$4697) which contained several attacks so far, and $4268 (daily cloud top) in extension.
Repeated close below daily Tenkan-sen ($4489) is needed to keep near-term bias with bears.
Markets shift focus to US Aug inflation data (due next Friday) which will provide significant information to the central bank ahead of policy meeting.
ING’s Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey highlight that central banks, led by China and Poland, continued net Gold purchases in July, supporting structural demand despite a slower pace than last year. They add that Gold prices rose over 2% after weaker US employment data and comments from Federal Reserve official Christopher Waller suggesting openness to holding rates steady if inflation behaves.
Official demand and Fed rhetoric support"Central banks continued to add to gold reserves in July, reporting net purchases of 23 tonnes, according to World Gold Council data. Emerging market central banks remained the main buyers, led by China and Poland. China's central bank extended its buying streak to 21 consecutive months, adding 20 tonnes."
"Although central bank buying has slowed compared to a year ago, official sector demand continues to provide support for the gold market. Ongoing reserve diversification efforts among emerging economies should help sustain structural demand, even if purchases moderate from recent highs."
"Gold prices rose more than 2% on Thursday following a weaker-than-expected ADP employment report on Wednesday. Comments from US Federal Reserve official Christopher Waller, suggesting he is open to keeping rates on hold at the next FOMC meeting (assuming no surprises on the inflation front), provided an additional boost."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Gold (XAU/USD) trades flat at the $4,470 area on Friday, as the previous two days’ rebound from $4,280 failed to find acceptance above the $4,500 psychological area. US Treasury yields have pulled back from highs as markets reassess the odds for an interest rate in September, but investors remain wary of selling the US Dollar ahead of the release of US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data, due later on the day.
Analysts at OCBC note that gold “rose more than 2% towards $4,510 intra-session high as Waller’s comments prompted markets to pare September Federal Reserve (Fed) hike expectations, pulling UST yields and the USD lower.”
The bank remains constructive on the pair, although they warn that "near-term direction is likely to stay highly sensitive to Fed repricing,” with NFP data seen as a potential driver of yields and the USD, while “next week’s CPI and PPI should be more decisive in determining whether the recent disinflation trend is sufficient to keep the Fed on hold.”
Technical Analysis: Gold nears key resistance at the 200-day SMA
XAU/USD trades at $4,464, still to confirm above a previous support area around $4.470 (August 20 low). Momentum indicators in the daily chart fail to provide a clear view, as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) struggles to take off from the key 50 line, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), still in negative territory, suggests that downside pressure is moderating, rather than fully reversing.
Gold bulls face a string of resistances at the mentioned $4,470 area, the psychological $4,500 level, and especially the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), now at $4,534. This is a very popular indicator for FX traders, and a confirmation above that line would suggest that the correction from $4,690 highs in late August has completed
Bearish attempts, on the other hand, are likely to find support between the August 14 low, at $4,311, and the intra-week low of $4,282. A potential reversal from the 200-day SMA below these levels would confirm a "Head and Shoulders" pattern and add pressure towards the August 6 low of $4,220 and the late July lows near $4,000.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Gold prices fell in Saudi Arabia on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 539.44 Saudi Riyals (SAR) per gram, down compared with the SAR 540.01 it cost on Thursday.
The price for Gold decreased to SAR 6,291.96 per tola from SAR 6,298.62 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in SAR
1 Gram
539.44
10 Grams
5,394.04
Tola
6,291.96
Troy Ounce
16,779.33
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Saudi Arabia by adapting international prices (USD/SAR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices fell in Pakistan on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 39,873.91 Pakistani Rupees (PKR) per gram, down compared with the PKR 39,915.05 it cost on Thursday.
The price for Gold decreased to PKR 465,086.70 per tola from PKR 465,561.30 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in PKR
1 Gram
39,873.91
10 Grams
398,744.50
Tola
465,086.70
Troy Ounce
1,240,211.00
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Pakistan by adapting international prices (USD/PKR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices fell in Malaysia on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 581.11 Malaysian Ringgits (MYR) per gram, down compared with the MYR 581.73 it cost on Thursday.
The price for Gold decreased to MYR 6,777.96 per tola from MYR 6,785.24 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in MYR
1 Gram
581.11
10 Grams
5,811.11
Tola
6,777.96
Troy Ounce
18,074.58
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Malaysia by adapting international prices (USD/MYR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
TL;DR: The Dollar’s selloff this week reflects two separate pressures — a Yen repricing tied to faster BoJ tightening and Fed Governor Waller’s lean toward a September hold — and Gold has rebounded sharply as an indirect beneficiary, with Friday’s NFP now the first test of both fronts at once.
Dollar Faces Two Separate Sources of Pressure Dollar’s selloff this week is being driven by two largely separate forces that have landed in quick succession. First came sharp Yen repricing as markets moved toward a faster BoJ tightening cycle and USD/JPY reversed from 160.38 toward 155. Then on Thursday, Fed Governor Christopher Waller added pressure from US side by leaning toward a September hold if recent disinflation continues. Gold has benefited indirectly from both developments, rebounding strongly after defending a major technical support zone around 4,320.
The distinction matters because this is not a single broad “Dollar bearish” narrative. Yen move reflects changing expectations around Japanese rates and capital allocation, while Waller’s comments affected US rate path directly. Together they have weakened two separate pillars supporting Dollar just as markets head into Friday’s NFP.
Waller Takes Heat Out of September Fed Hike Waller provided fresher catalyst. Speaking Thursday at Reuters NEXT Newsmaker Interview, he said Fed was finally seeing “some signs of disinflation” and that, if improvement continues in data due before September 15–16 FOMC meeting, “I would be inclined to support holding the target for the federal funds rate at its current setting.”
His reasoning was not based on a deteriorating economy. Waller described labor market as being in “satisfactory shape,” with unemployment at 4.1%, historically low layoffs and payroll growth averaging around 60K per month through July. Instead, he focused on improving inflation dynamics. Three-month core inflation has fallen from 4.76% in February to 3.05% through July, which he described as “a considerable improvement.”
That distinction makes Thursday’s repricing important. Market-implied probability of a September hike dropped from roughly 63% on Wednesday to almost an even split by Friday morning. Waller’s remarks coincided with that sharp reduction in hike pricing and extended Dollar weakness already underway.
But his hold preference remains conditional. “If inflation comes in hot, I would consider a rate hike,” Waller said, adding that policy is only slightly restrictive and that it “may not take much acceleration in inflation” to push him back toward tighter policy.
Yen Remains the Larger Weekly Dollar Driver Waller explains why Dollar pressure intensified late in week. Yen explains why decline was already well underway.
USD/JPY has fallen from 160.38 to as low as around 155.28, reflecting a substantial repricing of Japan’s monetary outlook. BoJ board member Hajime Takata’s call for a 2026 monetary-policy “regime change”, combined with his argument that rate hikes should become more nimble and data-dependent, reinforced expectations that BoJ may abandon its previous slow tightening cadence.
OIS pricing now implies around 84% probability of a September hike and roughly 96.5bp of cumulative tightening over coming 12 months, close to four quarter-point moves.
GPIF speculation added another Yen-positive dimension this week. An unusual August meeting reopened discussion over strategic asset allocation just months after an earlier review concluded changes were unnecessary, fuelling speculation that Japan’s giant pension fund could eventually raise its domestic allocation as JGB yields climb to multi-decade highs.
This Japan story has already been covered in more depth in USD/JPY Slides Toward 155 as GPIF Speculation Fuels Yen Rally and USD/JPY Tumbles Under the Shadow of Intervention, Faces Asymmetric NFP Test. For current Dollar setup, key point is simpler: Waller extended this week’s decline, but Yen created it.
DXY Rejection Keeps Broader Decline Intact Dollar Index technicals reflect those combined pressures.
Rebound from 98.55 to 99.86 appears to have completed as a corrective move after rejection near a strong resistance cluster. 99.79 marks 38.2% retracement of decline from 101.80 to 98.55, while 55-day EMA sits around 99.80.
Sharp rejection from that area keeps fall from 101.80 intact. Further downside is favored while 55 4H EMA near 99.33 caps recovery.
A firm break of 98.55 would resume decline towards 97.93, the 61.8% retracement of 95.55 to 101.80. Conversely, sustained recovery above 4H EMA would argue that sideways consolidation from 98.55 is extending rather than immediate bearish continuation.
That makes Friday NFP an unusually clean technical trigger.
Gold Rebounds Without Needing a Gold-Specific Catalyst Gold has been indirect beneficiary.
There has been no clear new Gold-specific fundamental catalyst behind this week’s rebound. Rather, simultaneous weakening in Dollar from Yen repricing and softer Fed expectations has relieved one of major pressures on metal.
Technically, rebound has been significant. Gold’s decline from 4,697.07 extended to 4,282.23, but price defended a key structural area around 4,319.75–4,324.23. That zone combines 50% retracement of advance from 3,942.43 to 4,697.07 at 4,319.75 with prior structural support at 4,324.23.
Gold has since rebounded decisively through 55 4H EMA near 4,462.10, strengthening case that fall from 4,697.07 completed as a correction rather than beginning of a larger reversal.
As long as 4,418.20 minor support holds, further rally toward 4,697.07 is favored. A break there would reopen prospect of resuming broader rise from 3,942.43. Whether that happens could depend partly on DXY: a decisive break below 98.55 would strengthen Gold’s upside case considerably.
Below 4,418.20, attention would return to 4,319.75–4,324.23 support.
NFP Is First Common Test of Both Dollar Pressure Fronts Friday’s August employment report is first major event capable of testing both sources of Dollar weakness simultaneously. Consensus centers on 58K payroll growth, unemployment at 4.1%, and average hourly earnings rising 0.3% m/m.
July provided a weak starting point. Payrolls fell -23K, while unemployment’s decline to 4.1% came alongside a drop in labor-force participation to 61.4%, rather than an unequivocal strengthening in employment conditions.
A weak NFP would reinforce Fed side of Dollar decline by reducing pressure for a September hike and likely pulling Treasury yields lower. That would put DXY 98.55 under renewed pressure and provide Gold with another tailwind. It could also deepen USD/JPY decline as Fed-BoJ policy convergence becomes more pronounced.
A strong report would work in opposite direction, rebuilding September hike expectations, supporting yields and challenging Gold’s recovery. But it would not erase Japan story. BoJ tightening expectations and Yen-positive capital-flow speculation would remain intact, making Dollar response potentially less straightforward than before this week’s USD/JPY reversal.
There is also a final complication from Waller himself. Despite NFP’s billing as week’s key event, he explicitly said he expects employment data to deliver broadly “more of the same” and indicated his September vote will be more heavily influenced by inflation data still to come.
So payrolls can strongly move Dollar, Yen and Gold today without necessarily settling Fed decision. NFP is first test of both fronts squeezing Dollar—but August inflation may still determine whether that squeeze becomes durable.
Key Takeaways The Dollar’s decline reflects two separate pressures: a Yen repricing tied to faster BoJ tightening (USD/JPY from 160.38 to 155) and Waller’s lean toward a September hold. Waller’s comments coincided with September hike odds dropping from roughly 63% to near an even split, though his hold preference stays conditional on continued disinflation. Gold has no new gold-specific catalyst behind its rebound — it defended the 4,319.75-4,324.23 support zone and is benefiting indirectly from broad Dollar weakness. DXY’s rejection near 99.79-99.80 resistance keeps the broader decline from 101.80 intact, with a break of 98.55 opening 97.93 next. Friday’s NFP (consensus 58K) is the first test of both Dollar pressure fronts at once, though Waller himself signaled his September vote hinges more on upcoming inflation data.
ActionForex
ActionForex.com was set up back in 2004 with the aim to provide insightful analysis to forex traders, serving the trading community for two decades. We started providing only a daily and a mid-day report, now known as Action Insights. Gradually, we added a lot more in-house contents to the site. Technical Outlook section was expanded to cover more pairs. In addition to that, Top Movers, Heat Map, Pivot Point Charts and Pivot Meters, Action Bias and Volatility Charts, are tools used by traders from all over the world.
Spot gold daily chart shows larger trend structure. Source: TradingView Next Test Could Shift Long-Term Outlook Altogether, recent technical signals show the possible beginning of an uptrend. If gold can now rise above and stay above the 200-day moving average near $4,534, the long-term picture should improve. That would likely lead to a continuation of the current advance above last week’s high of $4,697, thereby triggering a continuation of the developing advance.
ABCD Pattern Points Toward $4,984 With a new swing low, a potential rising ABCD pattern has formed, which shows an initial 100% projected target near $4,984. That is where there will be symmetry in price between the two legs up from the recent bottom. Typically, that projection identifies a minimum resistance target derived from the rising ABCD pattern. Given the potential upside indicated by the pattern, two lower targets become more likely to be reached.
There is the 50% retracement of the prior full decline at $4,771, and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $4,852. Both of those areas are reinforced by a prior lower swing high, with the higher level showing greater significance given the series of lower swing highs in the prior downtrend.
The last two trading sessions have been particularly important for gold's price action in the short term. XAU/USD has gained more than 3.7% during this period, once again highlighting a meaningful bullish bias around the precious metal. For now, this recovery has been driven mainly by weakness in both the U.S. dollar and the bond market ahead of tomorrow's NFP release. Both markets remain important alternatives to gold, and their recent pullback appears to be allowing demand for the metal to recover. As long as this dynamic remains in place, buying pressure could continue to play an important role during the coming sessions.
How Is the Market Reacting Ahead of NFP?
Tomorrow, markets will focus on the release of the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, which measures changes in non-agricultural employment during August. Current expectations point to the creation of around 55,000 new jobs, a figure that would represent an improvement compared with July's reading, when approximately 23,000 jobs were lost.
However, beyond the headline number itself, what truly matters is the potential impact this report could have on the Federal Reserve's next monetary policy decision. At the moment, there is still no clear consensus regarding how the central bank will proceed at its mid-September meeting. While a more aggressive Fed was the dominant expectation just weeks ago, recent comments from policymakers have begun to support a more cautious approach.
Officials such as John Williams have indicated that they prefer to remain in a wait-and-see mode, highlighting that recent inflation data has been more encouraging. At the same time, Christopher Waller has suggested that he would support leaving rates unchanged if inflation continues to show signs of moderation.
This has increased uncertainty heading into the NFP report, as markets increasingly view the release as a potentially decisive factor for September's policy decision. In fact, CME Group probabilities currently show an almost evenly split scenario, with approximately 49% odds of rates remaining unchanged versus 51% odds of a rate increase. This reflects a decline in conviction around the idea of a clearly more hawkish Federal Reserve.
This uncertainty has already begun affecting markets that compete directly with gold. Both U.S. Treasuries and the dollar have reacted to recent Fed comments and to expectations surrounding the NFP release.
On one hand, 10-year Treasury yields have retreated from recent highs near the 4.8% area. On the other, the DXY Index, which measures the U.S. dollar against its major peers, has also moved back below the 99-point level. This highlights how sensitive both markets remain to monetary policy developments and suggests that investors are beginning to price in a less aggressive Fed scenario.
Source: Trading Economics
In this environment, the current dynamic remains particularly important for gold because weakness in alternative markets often supports a recovery in demand for the precious metal. This relationship becomes evident when comparing gold's performance with the DXY Index, where periods of dollar weakness continue to coincide with stronger price action in gold.
In addition, the correlation coefficient between both markets remains close to -0.93, reflecting a strong inverse relationship over the past 100 trading sessions. This suggests that continued dollar weakness may remain supportive of the recovery currently underway in gold. It is important to remember that correlation coefficients can change over time.
Source: TVC, StoneX, Tradingview
Against this backdrop, market attention will likely remain focused on how the Federal Reserve responds to tomorrow's labor market data. If job creation proves weaker than expected, the relative attractiveness of both bonds and the U.S. dollar could continue to decline, potentially extending buying pressure around XAU/USD. Conversely, if employment data shows significant strength, markets may begin reconsidering a more hawkish Fed outlook, which could push gold into a broader period of consolidation toward the end of the week.
Gold Technical Outlook
Source: StoneX, Tradingview
Trendline Continues Attempting to Hold: Recent gold price action continues to defend a long-term bullish trendline that remains one of the most important technical structures on the chart. As long as buying pressure remains stable and prices continue breaking through important technical barriers, a more established uptrend could begin to develop over the coming weeks.
RSI: The RSI has moved back above the neutral 50 level, signaling that average buying momentum is beginning to regain relevance within the market. If this dynamic continues to develop, the bullish bias could continue gaining importance in the short term.
MACD: However, it is also important to note that the MACD histogram continues to fluctuate near the neutral 0 line. This suggests that a degree of balance still exists within the average strength of short-term moving averages and indicates that the broader neutral environment has not disappeared completely from the chart.
Key Levels to Watch:
$4,530 – Critical Resistance: An important upside barrier that coincides with the 200-period Simple Moving Average. A sustained close above this level could begin to change the recent market structure and create room for stronger buying pressure during the coming sessions.
$4,332 – Nearby Barrier: An equilibrium area that has contained a large portion of price action over the last two weeks. It remains an important reference level for potential pullbacks and, as long as prices continue developing around this zone, a sideways environment could remain a relevant feature of the market.
$4,200 – Critical Support: This level coincides with the 50-period Simple Moving Average. Price action returning toward this area could begin to challenge the bullish structure that has developed recently and potentially open the door to a more dominant bearish bias in the weeks ahead.
Written by Julian Pineda, CFA, CMT – Market Analyst
Gold (XAU/USD) extends its rebound on Thursday after slipping below $4,300 to a nearly four-week low on the previous day. A sharp rally in the Japanese Yen (JPY) weighs on the US Dollar (USD), helping the precious metal regain ground. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades around $4,425, up 0.87% on the day.
The Yen strengthens across the board for the second consecutive day. USD/JPY fell nearly 1% on Wednesday and is down around 1.50% at press time, trading near 156.35, its lowest level since August 3. The rapid move has raised speculation over another round of currency intervention or a rate check. However, Japanese authorities have not confirmed either.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback's value against a basket of six major currencies, trades around 99.26, near a one-week low, after reaching 99.86 on Wednesday, its highest level since August 14.
A weaker US Dollar is generally positive for Gold. Still, it may not be enough to drive a stronger recovery in the yellow metal, as several near-term headwinds remain in place, even though the longer-term outlook stays supported by strong central bank purchases and investment demand.
Government Bond yields have climbed to multi-year highs across major economies as fiscal and inflation concerns deepen. Elevated Oil prices linked to the war in the Middle East are also adding to inflation expectations. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield trades around 4.78% after pulling back modestly from 4.81%, its highest level since October 2023. Rising yields increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as Gold.
Hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations pose an additional challenge, as Gold typically performs better when interest rates are low. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders are pricing in around a 60% chance that the US central bank will raise interest rates at its September 15-16 meeting.
Taken together, these factors could make it difficult for Gold to attract strong buying interest. Buyers may also avoid placing aggressive bullish bets ahead of Friday’s United States Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which could significantly influence expectations for the Fed’s next policy move.
Thursday’s US economic calendar features the weekly Initial Jobless Claims and the August ISM Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI).
Technical analysis: XAU/USD tests $4,450 as buyers regain ground
XAU/USD holds above the 50-day and 100-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), keeping the near-term outlook constructive. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart stands near 52, indicating neutral momentum. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) displays red histogram bars and remains in negative territory, suggesting that recovery attempts could remain choppy while Gold trades below the longer-term trend barrier at the 200-day SMA.
On the upside, immediate resistance is located at the horizontal level of $4,450, followed by the 200-day SMA at $4,533 and the $4,700 mark. On the downside, the psychological level of $4,400 offers initial support ahead of the 100-day SMA at $4,357 and the 50-day SMA at $4,231. A deeper decline could bring the horizontal support level of $4,000 into focus.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Gold prices rose in Philippines on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 8,911.43 Philippine Pesos (PHP) per gram, up compared with the PHP 8,814.83 it cost on Wednesday.
The price for Gold increased to PHP 103,940.70 per tola from PHP 102,814.50 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in PHP
1 Gram
8,911.43
10 Grams
89,113.88
Tola
103,940.70
Troy Ounce
277,176.60
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Philippines by adapting international prices (USD/PHP) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices rose in United Arab Emirates on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 523.79 United Arab Emirates Dirhams (AED) per gram, up compared with the AED 518.04 it cost on Wednesday.
The price for Gold increased to AED 6,109.41 per tola from AED 6,042.34 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in AED
1 Gram
523.79
10 Grams
5,237.94
Tola
6,109.41
Troy Ounce
16,291.74
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in United Arab Emirates by adapting international prices (USD/AED) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Spot gold daily chart shows larger trend structure. Source: TradingView First Ceiling, Then 200-Day Verdict If the session high at $4,398 is broken to the upside, Wednesday’s low becomes a key support level. Tuesday’s high of $4,464 can then be used as an initial upside target zone, since it is joined by a prior swing high at $4,450 and the 20-day moving average near $4,449. A downtrend line nearby adds to the cluster. Together, this confluence of potential resistance is the zone that must be recovered before gold can go higher. For now, Monday’s high of $4,472 can be used as a proxy for the top of the resistance zone.
How gold behaves from there will tell the next step. A decisive upside break above $4,472 would get gold back above the downtrend line and the 20-day moving average. Then it must contend with resistance near the 200-day moving average, currently at $4,533. The recent rally failed to hold above the 200-day moving average, which makes that area a more significant resistance zone and a bullish signal for the larger trend if it is reclaimed. The buyers who reversed Wednesday’s breakdown would then be testing the level that shows whether the larger uptrend is back in control.
Gold defends its crucial 200-day EMA as traders weigh elevated US rates and Friday’s jobs report, which could trigger the next major price move.
Gold Technical Analysis
Daily price chart for Gold futures displaying support levels at 4,500.0 and 4,000.0 with the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.788%. Source: TradingView The gold market found itself to be a little bit interesting during the session as we fell towards the 200-day EMA only to bounce. This is an area that technical traders will be watching, as it is such a big technical indicator.
This is going to be an interesting market to watch during the session as interest rates, of course, are elevated in America, and the jobs number coming out on Friday could have a major part to play as to where we go next. After all, traders will continue to question what the Fed may or may not do, and with that, it will have a major influence on gold. This is probably the whole story at the moment, and traders are trying to get a grip on what happens next through that prism.
Technical Outlook and Key Moving Averages Bouncing from the 200-day EMA is a strong sign from a technical analysis standpoint, so it has that going for it. A breakdown below the 200-day EMA would be a weak sign from a technical analysis standpoint. So, we’ll have to see how that plays out, but I’m watching this very closely.
Ultimately, we’re trying to decide whether or not the Federal Reserve is going to continue to tighten or if it’s going to be a situation where the Federal Reserve gets a little bit of cover from a weak jobs number. The next couple of days will potentially be somewhat neutral, but once we get the jobs report, this market could see a lot of volatility, depending on what the numbers look like.
If you’d like to know more about how to trade gold and silver, please visit our educational area.
TD Securities’ Ryan McKay and Bart Melek highlight that upcoming US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) and a renewed hawkish Fed tone are critical for Gold, with prices near CTA (Commodity Trading Advisors) selling thresholds around $4,300/oz. Their simulations show further declines toward $4,200–$4,100/oz could push CTA positioning close to flat, though they see limited material downside longer term as the precious metals backdrop improves.
Gold nears key CTA sell triggers"Economic data becomes increasingly important for precious metals, with gold at risk of CTA selling."
"Non-farm payrolls this Friday will be the next piece of data with keen interest for precious metals given the renewed hawkish tone from the Fed and the latest escalation in the energy market."
"Price reaction may be more prone to the downside on potential beats in the data with gold nearing some CTA selling levels near $4,300/oz and our pricing simulations suggesting a further downward trend toward $4200-$4100/oz would see positioning reduced back to near flat into next week."
"Hike pricing has increased to over two hikes in 2027 again, and we have argued the recent rally in the yellow metal was too early due to these lingering inflation concerns."
"However, looking forward, we do not anticipate material downside as the landscape for precious metals has improved amid a renewed dollar debasement theme, while Fed hikes remain far from certain."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Gold (XAU/USD) maintains its bearish trend on Wednesday, as higher geopolitical tensions and growing bets of a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike in September boost speculative support to the US Dollar. The precious metal is testing the support area around $4,300 as of writing, 3.25% down on the week so far.
Bullion has been struggling since the US Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh boosted expectations of an interest rate hike in September at the Jackson Hole central banker’s summit on Friday. Warsh struck an unexpectedly hawkish tone, affirming that prices should be the central bank’s main concern right now and that they have “work to do” to bring interest rates to the 2% target.
Beyond that, the resumption of hostilities between the US and Iran has increased risk aversion, providing additional support for the safe-haven USD. The US military launched a new wave of strikes on Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) positions across Iran, which were responded to with attacks on US bases in Bahrain, Iraq and Jordan.
Technical Analysis: Gold comes under growing bearish pressure
XAU/USD trades at $4,310, holding an immediate bearish tone below the 200-day simple moving average (SMA), with momentum indicators showing growing negative traction. The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) has broken below the key 50 line, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is deeply negative at -30.53, altogether hinting at solid downside momentum.
A clear break below the mentioned $4,300 area (August 14, 18 and 19 lows) would clear the path toward the August 6 low, near $ 4,225, ahead of the late July lows in the $4,000 area
On the topside, the previous support area around $4,450 (August 20 low) is likely to act as resistance now. Further up, the mentioned 200-day SMA, at the $4,530 area, will challenge bulls ahead of last week's highs, near $4,700.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Gold has hit a wall this week, sliding to two-week lows near $4,320 and posting an 8.7% drop from last week’s three-month highs near $4,700. The catalyst is unmistakable: Fed Chair Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole remarks, warning the Fed still has “work to do” without clearer evidence inflation is returning to target, sent September hike odds surging from roughly 36% before his speech to over 66% today. Rising Treasury yields and renewed Middle East tensions, following fresh US strikes and Iranian retaliation against the UAE and Jordan, have only added to the pressure.
Despite this sharp pullback, the broader picture remains genuinely constructive: gold still gained around 10% in August alone after the US Treasury’s surprise move to double its long-dated bond buyback programme reignited fears over fiscal credibility, the so-called debasement trade that has underpinned much of this year’s rally.
All eyes now turn to Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls report, the week’s decisive catalyst. A weak print could quickly reverse this hawkish repricing and revive gold’s momentum, while a strong one would likely deepen the current correction heading into the Fed’s September 15–16 meeting.
Technical Analysis of XAU/USD
As the XAU/USD chart shows, gold has pulled back sharply from the 4,698.73 highs and is now trading between two key confluences: above the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement near 4,265, which aligns with the ascending trendline off the late-July lows, and below the 0.5 retracement near 4,348, which coincides with the 200-period EMA at 4,367.
Bullish Scenario
Should buyers defend the 0.618-trendline confluence, the broader recovery structure remains intact. A push back above the 0.5 retracement and the 200-period EMA would open the path towards reclaiming the descending trendline, with scope to challenge the 0.382 level near 4,431.
Bearish Scenario
Conversely, a decisive break below the 0.618 retracement and the ascending trendline would signal that the correction has real legs, exposing the 0.786 level near 4,147, with a deeper slide risking a full retest of the 3,997 low that anchored the entire August rally.
With price squeezed between a defended trendline-Fibonacci confluence below and a stubborn EMA-Fibonacci resistance above, gold’s next move looks set to determine whether Friday’s jobs report tips the balance towards renewed strength, or confirms this correction has further to run.
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Gold prices fell in Philippines on Wednesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 8,676.91 Philippine Pesos (PHP) per gram, down compared with the PHP 8,720.13 it cost on Tuesday.
The price for Gold decreased to PHP 101,205.70 per tola from PHP 101,709.90 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in PHP
1 Gram
8,676.91
10 Grams
86,769.07
Tola
101,205.70
Troy Ounce
269,882.20
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Philippines by adapting international prices (USD/PHP) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices fell in Saudi Arabia on Wednesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 519.87 Saudi Riyals (SAR) per gram, down compared with the SAR 522.56 it cost on Tuesday.
The price for Gold decreased to SAR 6,063.69 per tola from SAR 6,095.09 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in SAR
1 Gram
519.87
10 Grams
5,198.72
Tola
6,063.69
Troy Ounce
16,169.69
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Saudi Arabia by adapting international prices (USD/SAR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices fell in India on Wednesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 13,145.36 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, down compared with the INR 13,216.51 it cost on Tuesday.
The price for Gold decreased to INR 153,324.80 per tola from INR 154,154.80 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in INR
1 Gram
13,145.36
10 Grams
131,454.30
Tola
153,324.80
Troy Ounce
408,877.00
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold price (XAU/USD) tumbles to near a two-week low around $4,330 during the early Asian session on Wednesday. The precious metal faces some selling pressure on elevated Treasury yields and a stronger US Dollar (USD).
US Treasury yields rose to their highest since January 2025 in the previous session as escalating tensions in the Middle East stoked inflation fears and triggered a global bond selloff. Bloomberg reported that the US and Iran traded a new round of attacks Tuesday, with American forces striking Iranian targets around the Strait of Hormuz and Tehran saying it had launched a retaliatory operation targeting US interests across the region.
It’s worth noting that rising interest rates and higher yields on Treasuries typically weigh on gold as they raise the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding asset.
“We’re seeing some technical selling pressure... bond yields globally are at highs not seen in years. So that’s all working to pressure the gold market,” said Jim Wyckoff, a market analyst at American Gold Exchange.
Additionally, hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh at the Jackson Hole symposium might contribute to the yellow metal’s downside. Warsh warned last week that policymakers may need to tighten again if inflation fails to move convincingly towards 2%. Traders raise their bets on a September rate hike after Warsh’s comments.
The attention will shift to the US jobs data for August, which will be released later on Friday. This report could offer some clues about whether the Fed raises interest rates in September. Any signs of weakening in the US labour market could drag the Greenback lower and underpin the USD-denominated commodity price in the near term.
Gold positioning holds firm as Fed chair Warsh turns more hawkishAccording to TD Securities, Fed Chair Warsh "struck a more hawkish tone in his Jackson Hole speech as he acknowledged the inflation concerns." Analysts at the bank note that, despite this shift in rhetoric, positioning in Gold has remained resilient, with investors seemingly looking through the renewed focus on inflation and potential future policy tightening.
Technical Analysis: Gold remains capped under the 100-day SMAIn the daily chart, XAU/USD stays bearish as spot holds beneath the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) and the Bollinger Bands’ 20-day middle band, suggesting rallies are being capped by these overlapping dynamic barriers. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 46.28 hovers just below its neutral midpoint, hinting at waning downside momentum but not yet signaling a convincing recovery.
On the topside, initial resistance appears at the 100-day SMA around $4,365, followed by the Bollinger middle band near $4,445, while a stronger bullish extension would target the upper Bollinger band at $4,695. On the downside, the lower Bollinger band at $4,192 provides the next noteworthy support zone, and a daily close below it would open the door to a deeper corrective leg toward lower psychological levels.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
