Track market-moving stories before they get noisy

Silver (XAG/USD) price downtrend extended on Friday, losing over 1% after hitting a new yearly low of $53.03, paving the way for sellers to challenge the $50.00 level in the foreseeable future. At the time of writing, XAG/USD trades near $54.00.

XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical OutlookThe downtrend is poised to extend after Silver hit a new yearly low, opening the door to further downside. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is bearish and about to become oversold, indicating that sellers are gaining strength as XAG/USD edges lower.

The first support is $53.50. A breach of the latter will expose the YTD low of $53.05, followed by $50.00. The next area of interest is the November 21, 2025, swing low at $48.64, before the precious metal challenges the October 28, 2025, swing low at $45.56.

For a bullish reversal, Silver must rise above $55.00. Once it clears that level, the next stop is the October 22 high of $58.02, followed by the $60.00 milestone.

XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily

Silver daily chart
Silver FAQs

Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

The United States (US) midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, could trigger a major repricing of the US Dollar (USD), Treasury yields, and Gold, but the outcome is not predetermined. With all 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats up for grabs, the vote will serve as a referendum on Donald Trump's presidency, and prediction markets currently price in a roughly 60% chance of a Democratic sweep, about 30% for a divided Congress, and have almost priced out a Republican sweep. Because Congress shapes taxes, spending, government borrowing, and scrutiny of Federal Reserve (Fed) appointments, the result could push long-term yields, and Gold along with them, decisively in either direction. The key Gold levels to watch sit around $4,000 on the downside and $4,500 on the upside.

What the midterms can (and cannot) changeThe US midterm elections take place on November 3. With all 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats up for grabs, the US midterms will serve as a referendum on Donald Trump's presidency, with control of Congress, the cost of living, and the ongoing Iran war dominating voters' concerns. Republicans currently hold narrow majorities in both chambers. Democrats need to gain seats in both chambers to secure control of Congress.

Why does this matter to financial markets? Because Congress has a major role in shaping taxes, spending, healthcare policy, government borrowing, and the legislative agenda. A change in congressional control could make it harder for the White House to pass new legislation. It could also increase scrutiny of the administration's policies and appointments.

But traders need to understand one important distinction: a midterm election changes the balance of political power, not the presidency itself. Even if Democrats gain control of Congress, existing policies would not automatically disappear. A divided government could limit new legislation while leaving the administration with considerable influence over trade, sanctions, and foreign policy.

That means the market reaction may depend less on who wins and more on what investors believe the result means for economic growth, inflation, government debt and the Federal Reserve. The election result alone won't tell us how financial markets would react — what matters is how markets are pricing the three possible outcomes.

Scenario one: The Democratic sweep, the market's base caseCurrently, prediction-market pricing gives a Democratic sweep a probability of approximately 60%, although these odds can change before election day. At first glance, investors might expect this outcome to weaken the US Dollar because it would constrain Trump's legislative agenda. A Democratic-controlled Congress could restrain additional tax cuts and spending without necessarily reversing the administration's existing policies. A Democratic Senate could also increase scrutiny of Fed appointments, potentially limiting the administration's influence over the central bank and easing concerns about its independence.

If markets interpret the outcome as a more restrained fiscal path, Treasury yields could face some downward pressure. That could support Gold by reducing the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset. However, one important factor remains. If the administration responds by relying more heavily on tariffs, sanctions, or other executive measures, uncertainty could remain elevated. Depending on the reaction across major currencies and bond markets, the USD could still strengthen against some peers. So don't automatically buy Gold just because Democrats win. Watch the US Dollar and Treasury yields after the result.

Scenario two: Democratic House, Republican SenatePrediction-market pricing puts the probability of Democrats winning the House while Republicans retain the Senate at roughly 30%. This would create divided government and make major legislative changes more difficult. The White House could face greater congressional scrutiny, but Congress would not automatically reverse its existing policies. This scenario could broadly be neutral for the USD and US Treasury markets.

For Gold, that suggests the election result alone may not generate a sustained trend. Instead, traders may return their attention to the Federal Reserve, inflation, energy prices, government debt, and geopolitical developments. In other words, political headlines could create short-term volatility, but the broader macroeconomic backdrop would still determine whether Gold can establish a lasting move.

With a divided Congress, the election may deliver less of a clear fiscal signal. A Republican sweep, by contrast, could change expectations for spending, borrowing and inflation.

Scenario three: The Republican sweep, the biggest repricing riskThis outcome could produce the biggest market repricing, as markets have largely priced it out. A Republican sweep could give the administration greater room to pursue its legislative agenda, including additional fiscal stimulus. If investors anticipate stronger growth, higher government borrowing or more inflationary pressure, they could demand higher yields on longer-dated US Treasuries. That could support the USD if markets interpret the yield rise as a sign of stronger growth or tighter monetary policy. For Gold, this could create a significant headwind.

Are higher yields confidence, or fiscal concern?Another factor could matter more than the election headline itself: the cost of financing US government debt. When Treasury yields rise, the government pays more to borrow as it issues new debt or refinances maturing obligations. Higher yields can also feed through to borrowing costs across the wider economy, including mortgage rates.

A month before the vote, the US average 30-year fixed mortgage rate climbed to 7.49%, its highest level since November 2023, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association. The rise came as Treasury yields increased amid inflation concerns, geopolitical uncertainty, and the government's substantial financing needs.

Why should Gold traders care? Because higher long-term borrowing costs can tighten financial conditions across the economy. More expensive mortgages can weigh on housing demand. Higher financing costs can also pressure businesses and government budgets. If investors believe a Republican sweep will lead to more borrowing and fiscal stimulus, long-term yields could rise further. Initially, that could support the US Dollar and pressure Gold.

But a second possibility exists: If yields rise because investors grow increasingly concerned about government debt, fiscal sustainability, or the credibility of US economic policy, the USD may not strengthen as expected. Gold could benefit if investors turn to it as a store of value or a hedge against broader financial uncertainty.

This is the central question traders should ask: Are higher yields reflecting confidence in the US economy or growing concern about the US fiscal outlook? The answer could determine whether Gold falls or proves unexpectedly resilient.

Gold's technical picture: The burden of proof is on the bulls

Gold weekly chartGold's weekly chart shows that the medium-term recovery remains unconfirmed. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is below the neutral 50 level. This suggests momentum remains weak, though the market is not necessarily oversold. More importantly, Gold is trading below two major weekly moving averages. This alignment puts the burden of proof on the bulls.

The first major support is at the psychological $4,000 area. A hotly contested election, a Republican sweep that lifts expectations for fiscal expansion, or a stronger USD could add pressure, but the bearish scenario would need confirmation from price action. A break below $4,000 would be a more significant deterioration in the technical picture. Traders would then target the 100-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) near $3,850, followed by $3,800.

On the other hand, in a Democratic sweep, investors would expect more fiscal restraint, lower long-term yields and reduced uncertainty around the Fed's independence. Then, the yellow metal could attempt a recovery. Gold first needs to reclaim the $4,215-$4,250 area. That's the confluence zone of the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from $4,700 and the 21-week SMA. Above that, the next hurdle is the $4,400 zone, where the 50% Fibonacci resistance and the psychological level intersect. A sustained move above the resistance zone would improve the recovery case and open the door to the $4,460 region, where the 61.8% Fibonacci hurdle and 50-week Simple Moving Average align. The next resistance comes in at $4,500.

Recapturing those levels would provide stronger evidence that the recovery is gaining traction. 

If the election produces political gridlock and neither party can materially change the fiscal outlook, Gold could remain range-bound between $3,850 and $4,400. Investors could then refocus on inflation, the Fed's policy path, energy prices and economic growth.

Beyond the ballot: three risks for Gold tradersThe chart gives us the key levels: $4,000 and $3,850 below, and $4,400 and $4,460 above. However, Gold traders must watch three risks.

First, the Federal Reserve. If inflation stays elevated and policymakers signal further tightening, Gold could struggle even if election-related uncertainty increases.Second, geopolitical developments. A possible escalation involving Iran is an upside risk for the US Dollar. Depending on the nature of the shock, Gold could also attract safe-haven demand.Third, the US debt ceiling. Difficult negotiations in 2027 could create volatility in short-dated Treasury bills and broader financial markets.These risks show why it is dangerous to assume that one election result will dictate Gold's direction for months. Markets respond to the full policy and economic consequences, not just the political headline.

The bottom lineThe US midterm elections could trigger a major repricing of the US Dollar, Treasury yields, and Gold, but the outcome is not predetermined. A Republican sweep could raise fiscal-expansion concerns and pressure Gold if yields and the US Dollar rise. Democratic gains could limit new legislation and support Gold if yields ease. A divided Congress could leave markets focused on the Federal Reserve and the wider economic outlook.

Technically, watch $4,000 and $3,850 on the downside, and $4,400 and $4,460 on the upside. Don't trade the election headline. Trade the confirmed reaction.

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

XAU/USD Outlook: Goldman Warns of Downside Risk to Its $4,650 Forecast Goldman Sachs retains its longer-term gold recovery forecast, but weaker options demand leaves its nearer target exposed as bullion slips towards $4,000. The gold price in US Dollars traded near $4,015 an ounce on Friday, after briefly slipping below $4,000, as the latest decline challenged forecasts for a recovery by year-end.

Goldman Sachs retains its longer-term view: "We continue to expect the gold price to trend higher to $5,400 by end-2027."

It nevertheless warns of downside risk to its $4,650 end-2026 forecast.

Fewer bullish options leave the nearer forecast vulnerable Goldman writes: "That said, the September decline in gold-related call options demand (following a repricing of the Fed funds rate outlook and reduced market focus on the debasement theme) implies downside risk to our end-2026 forecast of $4,650."

Call options give investors the right to buy at an agreed price, providing exposure to a gold rally without purchasing the full amount of metal outright.

The debasement theme refers to concerns that inflation or economic policy will erode the purchasing power of currencies, encouraging demand for assets such as gold.

Goldman adds: "The rise in gold options positioning (loosely associated with the debasement theme) has contributed to higher gold price volatility since 2025."

Friday's market reporting highlighted pressure from expensive energy and expectations of further interest-rate increases, alongside the possibility that investors were selling bullion to meet losses elsewhere.

Gold pays no interest, so higher expected rates increase the income investors forgo by holding it.

Official buyers support a different time horizon The bank writes: "That said, continued central bank diversification following the 2022 freeze of Russian central bank assets while annual mine supply remains small relative to the above-ground stock remains the structural driver of our constructive view on the gold price trend."

Newly mined supply cannot quickly expand to match a sustained shift in the share of reserves held in gold.

Goldman assumes: "We assume central bank gold purchases will continue at the past 12 months' pace of roughly 60 tonnes per month in 2026-2027, well above the pre-2022 average of 17 tonnes per month (Exhibit 15)."

The World Gold Council's September ETF report states: "Global gold ETFs attracted US$10bn in September, lifting Q3 inflows to a record US$31bn, led by European- and North American-listed funds."

Physical holdings rose during the month despite a lower gold price, even as speculative futures positions contracted.

Those inflows predate Friday's decline but show that ETF demand held up in September despite weaker options activity.

The same tension between persistent buyers and selling elsewhere underpinned HSBC's warning that gold may fail to cushion an abrupt equity-market fall earlier this week.

What This Means for Gold Prices The December target requires a recovery in a market where Goldman already sees a weakening source of demand. Its $5,400 projection allows another year for official buying to support prices, so it does not remove the risk of further near-term losses.

Goldman's case would gain support if official buying persisted while demand for bullish options recovered. September's ETF inflows show that substantial buying can coexist with falling prices.

A sustained slowdown in central-bank purchases would present a more fundamental problem for Goldman. Its longer-term price forecast depends on that demand remaining well above the pace seen before Russian reserves were frozen.

From the week-ending November 15, 2024 to the week-ending January 30, 2026, Spot gold traveled from $2,536.85 to $5,602.23. It’s now testing the 50% to 61.8% range of that rally at $4,069.54 to $3,707.82. It’s been tested successfully before when Spot gold bottomed at $3,942.10. Based on past performance, it tells me that trader reaction to this zone could determine the intermediate direction of XAUUSD.

What to Watch
For Daily Spot Gold, my bias is to the downside. The downtrend on the main swing chart and trading below the 50-day moving average are controlling my downside bias. Although a technical rebound is possible, it will likely attract renewed selling pressure. A bounce from a major support area will be more important so we have to wait until it hits a potential value area between $3,942.10 to $3,886.46.

For weekly Spot Gold, my bias is also to the downside. It’s being supported by the trade on the weak side of the 52-week moving average and the downtrends on both the minor and main swing charts. A trade through $4,217.39 will turn the minor trend up and weaken my bearish outlook.

We’re also going to be watching the reaction to a test of $4,069.54 to $3,707.82. This zone produced a positive reaction before. We could see the same reaction this time, but it will be relatively meaningless unless buyers can recover $4,217.39.

If you’d like to know more about how to trade gold, please visit our educational area.

Gold eased on Friday, headed for its steepest weekly decline in ‌over four months as elevated oil prices bolstered higher-for-longer interest rate expectations, while investors awaited next week's Federal Reserve policy meeting.

Spot gold eased 0.1% to $4,021.04 per ounce by 0554 GMT, paring losses slightly after touching its ​lowest level since July 20 earlier in the session. The metal has ​fallen 3.6% so far this week, putting it on track for its ⁠worst week since June.

US gold futures for December delivery dropped 0.6% to $4,035.50.

Speculators are trying ​to defend the key $4,000 level for gold because a clean break below would signal ​that the market has stopped pricing rate relief and started pricing sticky inflation, elevated yields, and a stronger dollar, said Monte Safieddine, head of market research at Capital.com.

Oil prices rose on Friday after Houthi ​attacks in Saudi Arabia stoked concerns of further disruption to energy supplies from the ​Middle East.

Elevated energy prices bolster expectations of higher-for-longer interest rates by the Fed, increasing the opportunity ‌cost ⁠of holding non-yielding bullion.

"Any further escalation on the geopolitical front risks pushing oil even higher. Higher oil is reviving inflation fears, lifting yields, and delaying Fed easing. That is a difficult cocktail for bullion," Safieddine added.

Focus has turned to the Fed's ​October 27-28 policy meeting ​and next week's ⁠Personal Consumption Expenditures data, a closely watched gauge because it is the central bank's preferred inflation measure for its 2% inflation target.

Traders are largely expecting the ​central bank to leave interest rates unchanged next week, but expectations for ​an interest ⁠rate hike in December remain at 76%.

Meanwhile, analysts at HSBC cut their average 2026 platinum and palladium price forecasts in a research note on Thursday, citing shifting market fundamentals and ⁠investor liquidation.

Among ​other metals, spot silver slid 0.4% to $54.31 per ounce, ​platinum rose 0.3% to $1,574.33 and palladium gained 0.3% to $1,056.49.

However, all three metals were headed for weekly declines.

Key Points:Gold is set for a weekly loss of more than 3.5% as energy-driven inflation revives rate fears, and investors looking for safety buy Treasuries instead of bullion.Gold trades near $4,015 after breaking below the $4,075 October floor, with the $3,946 to $3,963 zone as the next support and $3,890 in view if it gives way.The Fed is expected to hold on October 27-28, but CME FedWatch shows about a 78% chance of at least one hike by December, keeping policy the main headwind.Silver trades near $54.05 in a falling channel after a fresh low near $53.43. A close below $53.46 opens $52.41 and $51.39, while $55.77 caps any rebound.Gold Loses Its Haven Bid as Oil Shock Revives Rate Fears Gold is set for a weekly loss of more than 3.5% after falling to its lowest level since July 20. This time, the Middle East conflict is working against the metal. Energy-driven inflation is outweighing its safe-haven appeal, and investors looking for safety are buying Treasuries instead.

Gold: Inflation Fears Trump Haven Demand Gold fell nearly 3% on Thursday after the New York Times reported that the US and Israel are preparing a short but intense military operation against Iran after the midterm elections, possibly targeting its energy infrastructure. Instead of lifting bullion, the report revived concerns that higher energy prices would keep US rates elevated, RTTNews said.

The flight to safety went to bonds. Worries about the funding needs of AI hit tech stocks and sparked the biggest one-day rally in Treasuries in more than three years, with the 10-year yield falling more than 19 basis points, Reuters reported. Lower yields usually help gold, because the metal pays no interest and holding it costs less when bond returns fall. This time gold failed to attract any haven demand, which shows how heavily inflation worries are weighing on the metal.

That is why policy expectations remain the main headwind. The Fed is widely expected to hold at its October 27-28 meeting after hotter-than-expected consumer and producer inflation data, but CME’s FedWatch tool shows about a 78% chance of at least one hike by December.

Silver: Hit From Both Sides Silver has fallen more sharply than gold and is down about 10% in October. Because it is both an investment metal and an industrial input, it is exposed to tighter monetary policy and to the growth risks of an energy shock, Business Today noted. Higher crude costs raise the risk of persistent inflation, and they also threaten the manufacturing demand behind silver’s industrial base.

What Comes Next Next week brings the Fed decision on October 28 and the September PCE inflation data on October 29. Both will show whether the energy-driven rate premium keeps pressure on the two metals.

Gold Technical Analysis: XAU/USD Breaks Below $4,075 as $3,946 Comes Into Focus

Gold Price Chart Gold is trading near $4,015 on the 4-hour chart after a clean break below $4,075, a floor that had held all month. A falling trendline has capped every rally since late August, and price is now below both moving averages, so sellers remain in control.

The next support is the $3,946 to $3,963 zone, last tested in July. If that zone breaks, the way opens toward $3,890. On the upside, $4,075 is now the first resistance.

Gold Price Forecast

Every new Gold analysis as it publishes, today's technical signal and key levels, live price — on one page.

See all Gold forecasts RSI is near 26, deep in oversold territory, so a short bounce would not surprise me. Even so, I lean bearish while gold stays below $4,075. A recovery above that level would ease the pressure, while a close below $3,946 would strengthen the selling case.

Silver Technical Analysis: XAG/USD Slides to $53.46 Inside a Bearish Channel

Silver Price Chart Silver is trading near $54.05 on the 4-hour chart, inside the falling channel that has guided prices lower since September. The latest rejection came near $58.09 at the top of the channel, and the drop that followed took silver to a fresh low near $53.43, just under the $53.46 support, before a small bounce.

If $53.46 gives way on a closing basis, $52.41 and then $51.39 come into play. On the upside, silver needs to clear $54.53 first, then $55.77.

RSI is near 28, so silver is also oversold and a relief bounce is possible. In my view, the bias stays bearish while silver trades below $55.77. A move above that level would ease the pressure, and a close below $53.46 would point to further losses.

Arslan is a finance MBA and also holds an MPhil degree in behavioral finance. An expert in financial analysis and investor psychology, Arslan uses his academic background to bring valuable insights about market sentiment and whether instruments are likely to be overbought or oversold.

Gold XAU/USD faces renewed downward pressure after falling below its recent consolidation range. The price briefly dropped below $4,000 before returning to around $4,007. Higher energy costs have revived inflation concerns ahead of the Federal Reserve policy decision. Attention now turns to whether gold can stabilize or extend its decline toward the lower channel boundary.

Oil prices and Fed policy keep Gold under pressureGold is extending its decline as rising oil prices complicate the interest rate outlook. WTI crude is trading near $100, with tensions involving the United States and Iran threatening energy supplies. Higher fuel costs can feed into transport and production expenses. That raises the risk of persistent inflation and gives central banks less room to lower borrowing costs. Gold pays no interest, so higher rates can reduce its appeal relative to assets that provide income. However, lower oil prices could ease inflation concerns. That could reduce expectations of further rate increases if other price pressures also start to fade.

The attack near the Shaybah oil field has added to concerns about regional energy infrastructure. President Donald Trump has also invoked the Defense Production Act to support petroleum production, refining, pipelines and fuel storage. Such measures could ease supply constraints over time, but projects need financing and construction before they add capacity. Geopolitical uncertainty can support demand for gold as a defensive asset. The latest price decline suggests that concern over higher interest rates currently carries more weight.

The Federal Reserve will announce its decision on Wednesday, 28 October. Markets expect the policy rate to remain at 3.75%–4.00%, but an unchanged rate would not remove the possibility of another increase. Comments from Chair Kevin Warsh will therefore matter. Investors will assess his views on inflation and demand linked to artificial intelligence investment. Gold could fall if the Fed suggests it may raise interest rates again. A more cautious assessment could ease some of that pressure.

Gold technical analysis: $3,950 emerges as the next supportThe chart below shows gold moving within a descending channel on the four-hour timeframe. Repeated declines from the upper boundary point to a continuing downward trend. The latest fall has pushed the price below the dashed centre line. That leaves gold in the lower half of the channel. The red descending support line now sits close to $4,015–$4,020, making this area an immediate test of whether the decline is slowing.

Gold reached roughly $3,986 before returning above $4,000. The lower wick shows that the price moved away from its low, but one candle does not establish a reversal. If gold closes below $4,000 and remains there, attention could shift toward the marked $3,950 reference. This area sits close to the lower boundary of the descending channel, making $3,950 an important technical support reference. The channel boundary slopes lower, so its value changes with time.

On the upside, the dashed channel line near $4,040–$4,050 provides the first reference area. A move above it would improve the immediate structure, but gold would still need to regain the former range floor around $4,067. Holding above that level could bring the upper channel boundary near $4,140–$4,160 into focus. A stronger technical improvement would require a clear move above that boundary.

Gold price outlook: Oil supply disruptions complicate rate outlookGold remains under pressure within its descending channel. Rising oil prices and uncertainty over interest rates continue to weigh on the outlook. A close below $4,000 could bring support near $3,950 into focus. Gold would need to move above nearby resistance and hold there to show clearer signs of stabilization. The Federal Reserve message could shape the next move.

TL;DR: Gold briefly traded below $4,000 even as the US 10-year yield fell ~17bps to 4.96% on a tech-led equity selloff—a breakdown in the usual rate relationship that points to liquidity and positioning pressures, and possibly forced liquidation. The break below 4,066.21 support puts the 3,942–3,924 zone in immediate focus, with a deeper risk toward 3,750 if selling accelerates.

Why This Matters
Gold’s latest decline has exposed an unusual divergence across traditional defensive assets. While the technology-led equity selloff drove investors toward US Treasuries, pushing the 10-year yield down approximately 17 basis points to 4.96%, gold continued falling and briefly traded below $4,000. Inflation-adjusted Treasury yields also declined, yet the usual support from lower real interest rates failed to materialize. The contrast suggests that liquidity and positioning pressures may be outweighing gold’s traditional rate sensitivity, although forced liquidation has not been independently confirmed.

Technically, the break below 4,066.21 indicates that gold’s decline from 4,697.07 has resumed, potentially entering its fifth downward leg. The immediate focus is the 3,942–3,924 support region, where an initial rebound is possible. However, a decisive break would expose a deeper downside objective around 3,750. Nasdaq Composite support near 25,803 and the US 10-year yield’s position below 5% offer additional signals for assessing whether the broader defensive market adjustment is intensifying or stabilizing.

Gold Falls Despite Sharp Decline in Treasury Yields
Gold extended its decline on Thursday as selling in technology shares intensified, briefly dropping below the psychological $4,000 to an intraday low near 3,986 today. Silver also suffered a steeper decline, reflecting additional vulnerability to concerns about industrial demand and economic growth. The weakness in precious metals contrasted with the strong performance of US government bonds, where defensive buying drove Treasury yields sharply lower.

The divergence is particularly notable because the fall in Treasury yields was accompanied by a decline in real interest rates. The US 10-year nominal yield dropped from approximately 5.13% to 4.96%, while the corresponding inflation-adjusted yield eased from around 2.76% to 2.64%. Lower real yields ordinarily reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as gold. Yet bullion failed to benefit, suggesting that other selling pressures were dominating its near-term price behavior.

The timing also matters. Gold’s decline began before the full Treasury rally developed, indicating that the initial selling cannot be attributed solely to liquidity pressures generated by the subsequent equity retreat. Nevertheless, gold’s continued weakness as real yields fell suggests that the traditional interest-rate relationship was not providing its usual support.

AI Selloff Drives Defensive Treasury Demand
US technology shares suffered another substantial setback as investors questioned the financing requirements and potential returns from large-scale AI investment. Nasdaq Composite fell approximately 2.6% on Thursday, its largest daily decline since June, while S&P 500 lost around 1.2%. Nvidia and other semiconductor-related companies were among the notable decliners, extending the pressure that had already affected Asian and European technology stocks.

The central concern has shifted from whether AI investment is generating revenue growth toward whether the scale of capital expenditure can deliver adequate financial returns. Recent corporate earnings have done little to settle that debate, leaving investors increasingly sensitive to investment guidance and funding requirements. The resulting weakness in technology shares encouraged defensive demand for Treasuries, pushing yields lower.

The Treasury rally reflected a search for safety, but gold did not participate. That divergence raises the possibility that investors were responding differently to the two assets: buying government bonds for protection while reducing liquid positions elsewhere to manage portfolio exposure. It also suggests that the market reaction involved more than a straightforward reassessment of interest-rate expectations.

Why Did Lower Yields Fail to Support Gold?
Liquidity-driven selling offers a plausible explanation for gold’s unusual underperformance. When equity markets decline, leveraged investors facing portfolio losses, margin requirements or tighter risk limits may need to raise cash quickly. Gold’s liquidity can make it a source of funds, even when its longer-term investment characteristics remain attractive. HSBC has highlighted how margin-related liquidation can undermine gold’s short-term effectiveness as an equity-market hedge, while Invesco has separately warned that investors may sell profitable gold positions to meet liquidity needs during periods of financial stress.

The latest price movements are consistent with that mechanism, particularly as gold weakened alongside technology shares despite falling nominal and real Treasury yields. A break through technical support may also have encouraged further position reductions, reinforcing the decline. However, the extent of forced selling remains unverified. There is insufficient contemporaneous evidence from ETF flows, futures transactions or margin data to establish how much of Thursday’s decline was attributable to leveraged liquidation.

Earlier speculative positioning provides some context. CFTC data showed managed-money net longs in COMEX gold futures declining from approximately 127,400 contracts in late September to 107,100 by October 13, indicating that bullish exposure was already being reduced before the latest selloff. Those figures do not capture Thursday’s trading, however, and cannot confirm whether liquidation subsequently accelerated. For now, the evidence supports an interpretation in which liquidity and positioning pressures temporarily overwhelmed the favorable interest-rate backdrop, rather than proving that forced selling was the dominant cause.

ActionForex’s Technical View: Gold, Fifth Downward Leg Targets 3,924
Gold’s break below 4,066.21 support suggests that the decline from 4,697.07 has resumed. Under the developing wave structure, the fall from 4,198.93 is interpreted as the fifth leg of the downward sequence, following the failure of the preceding recovery. Both the four-hour and daily charts remain under pressure, with prices trading below their respective 55 EMAs near 4,124 and 4,231.

The immediate downside objective is the 61.8% projection of 4,510.90 to 4,066.21 from 4,198.93 at 3,924.12. This lies just below the previous low at 3,942.43, creating an important support region around 3,924–3,942. With the four-hour RSI near 29, selling momentum is becoming stretched, and an initial rebound from this area would not be surprising. Nevertheless, the near-term outlook would remain bearish while 4,198.93 resistance holds.

A firm break below 3,924.12 would indicate further downside acceleration toward the 100% projection at 3,754.24. This closely coincides with the larger daily projection around 3,748–3,749 and the lower boundary of the medium-term descending channel. The convergence makes 3,748–3,754 a potentially significant support area for a more durable bottom, should the current decline extend that far.

Nasdaq and Treasury Yields: Cross-Asset Tests of Market Stress
Two developments outside the gold market could help determine whether the conditions associated with its latest decline are intensifying. Nasdaq Composite is approaching important structural support at 25,802.96, following Thursday’s fall toward 26,009. A sustained break would indicate an extension of the equity decline, exposing the 38.2% retracement of the advance from 20,690.25 to 27,722.75 at approximately 25,036.35. Further equity weakness could increase portfolio risk-reduction pressures, although the technical break would not itself establish additional forced liquidation.

Meanwhile, the US 10-year Treasury yield has fallen toward its daily 55 EMA near 4.975% and below the psychological 5% threshold. Sustained weakness through this area would strengthen the case for an extension toward the 38.2% retracement of the rise from 3.926% to 5.365%, at approximately 4.815%. A recovery above 5%, particularly alongside stabilizing equities, would suggest that defensive Treasury demand may be easing.

The most revealing combination would be a break of Nasdaq support accompanied by a further decline in Treasury yields. If gold continued weakening under those conditions, the case for liquidity and positioning pressures overriding its traditional rate sensitivity would strengthen. Conversely, equity stabilization alongside reduced Treasury demand could suggest that the immediate defensive adjustment is losing momentum, potentially easing selling pressure on gold.

For now, gold’s failure to benefit from lower real yields remains the central market signal. While the precise scale of leveraged liquidation is uncertain, the technical breakdown keeps the 3,924 support region in focus, with a deeper decline toward 3,748–3,754 becoming a more credible risk if selling accelerates.

Key Takeaways

Gold briefly traded below $4,000 even as the 10-year Treasury yield fell ~17bps to 4.96% and real yields declined—a breakdown in gold’s usual rate sensitivity that points to liquidity/positioning pressure, not confirmed forced selling.
Nasdaq’s 2.6% drop (its worst since June) on renewed AI-financing concerns drove the defensive Treasury demand that gold failed to benefit from.
CFTC data show managed-money gold longs already falling from ~127,400 to ~107,100 contracts between late September and October 13, though this predates Thursday’s selloff.
Gold’s key technical level is 3,942–3,924 support (the fifth leg of the decline from 4,697.07); a firm break below 3,924.12 opens a deeper target near 3,748–3,754.
Watch Nasdaq’s 25,803 support and the 10-year yield’s position below 5% together—a break of both while gold keeps falling would confirm liquidity pressures are dominating gold’s price action.

ActionForex

ActionForex.com was set up back in 2004 with the aim to provide insightful analysis to forex traders, serving the trading community for two decades. We started providing only a daily and a mid-day report, now known as Action Insights. Gradually, we added a lot more in-house contents to the site. Technical Outlook section was expanded to cover more pairs. In addition to that, Top Movers, Heat Map, Pivot Point Charts and Pivot Meters, Action Bias and Volatility Charts, are tools used by traders from all over the world.

Gold price (XAU/USD) falls to the lowest in more than two months near $4,025 during the early Asian session on Friday. The precious metal faces some selling pressure as escalating tensions in the Middle East send oil surging ahead of a Federal Reserve (Fed) policy meeting.

The global oil benchmark surged after deadly attacks in Saudi Arabia heightened concerns about regional supplies and stoked worries over an energy-driven inflationary shock. Elevated energy costs increase the possibility that the US central bank will need to further adjust monetary policy to contain price pressures.

Yemen's Houthi said that it carried out an attack on an airport in eastern Saudi Arabia on Wednesday evening. Additionally, the drone was intercepted as it attempted to target a processing facility owned by Saudi Arabia's state oil company Aramco in the Shaybah oil field, where a contractor's vehicle was set ablaze, per the BBC.

The Fed decided to raise interest rates last month for the first time since 2023, with markets anticipating further tightening later this year. Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh last week avoided signalling the outcome of this month’s policy meeting but noted that hotter-than-expected inflation had not changed his assessment of the US economy.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, the chance of no change in rate at the October meeting now stands at 92.8%. Higher interest rates typically weigh on gold because the precious metal does not pay interest, making yield-bearing assets relatively more attractive.

Gold consolidates below key resistance as Societe Generale flags downside risksAnalysts at Societe Generale note that Gold has "carved out an interim low near $4,065 earlier this month and has since evolved within a narrow consolidation." They highlight that "the upper boundary of this range at $4,200/4,225 represents a short-term resistance zone," cautioning that "failure to overcome this hurdle could denote the risk of a deeper pullback." On the downside, the bank points out that "the lower boundary of the consolidation near $4,065 serves as the first support," warning that "a break below this may extend the decline towards the June low at $3,960/3,940 and projections near $3,830."

Warsh flags investment surge and AI risks as Fed keeps options open into year-endFed Chair Warsh delivered a moderately cautious tone, with the FXS Speechtracker score of 5.6/10 coming in softer compared to the established baseline of 6.1/10, suggesting slightly less conviction than usual. The admission of being “over-scarred from the global financial crisis” underscores a bias toward risk management and vigilance on financial stability even as Warsh highlights a structural growth and investment surge driven by “good policies.” Emphasis on not pre-judging the October and December meetings keeps policy optionality high, reinforcing a data-dependent stance as the Fed “crystalizes” views on output, employment, and inflation while closely watching AI’s demand-side effects and tail risks.

The FXS Fed Sentiment Index was unchanged, with a 0.00-point move leaving the level at a firmly hawkish 127.51, signaling that despite a slightly softer speech score, the broader policy backdrop remains restrictive. The combination of a high index reading and a mid-range FXS Speechtracker score suggests markets still price a hawkish Fed reaction function, even as Warsh stresses flexibility and acknowledges uncertainty around AI and near-term employment impacts.

Technical Analysis: Gold remains capped under the 100-day SMAIn the daily chart, XAU/USD extends a bearish near-term bias as spot remains below a dense band of moving average and volatility-based resistances. The 20-day Bollinger middle band and the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) both sit above price, suggesting rallies are likely to be sold while the metal trades under these reference lines. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 35 hovers just above oversold territory, hinting that downside momentum is still present but could slow as conditions turn increasingly stretched.

On the topside, initial resistance emerges at the lower Bollinger band around $4,055, followed by the 20-day Bollinger middle band near $4,150. Higher up, the 100-day SMA at about $4,230 and the upper Bollinger band close to $4,245 form a broader supply zone that would need to be reclaimed to ease the prevailing bearish pressure and open the door to a more sustained recovery.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Gold FAQs

Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

Gold fell to two-week low on Thursday on repeated attempt through $4100 support, as oil prices climb further on signals of escalation of the conflict in the Middle East.

Rising inflation (the latest US data showed that CPI & PPI remain in an upward trajectory, implying that the Fed would keep interest rates elevated for extended period) will continue to support dollar.

The Fed meets next week, with wide expectations for a hawkish hold scenario on Oct 28 policy meeting, while release of US September PCE Price Index (Fed’s preferred gauge for underlying inflation) on Oct 29, expected to contribute to the central bank’s monetary policy direction.

Another violation of $4100 pivot firms negative near-term structure, with eventual close below this level to confirm strong bearish signal for attack at key $4000 support zone (including spike lows at $3942 and $3960).

Broken $4100 level reverted to initial resistance, followed by broken Fibo at $4120 and falling 20DMA ($4152) which tracks the downtrend since early September and marks the first upper breakpoint.

Res: 4100; 4120; 4152; 4190

Sup: 4021; 4000; 3960; 3942

Windsor Brokers Ltdhttp://www.windsorbrokers.com/

The information contained in this document was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed herein are in good faith, but are subject to change without notice. No liability accepted whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this document.

Gold falls despite easing real Treasury yields as geopolitical tensions intensify, putting critical $4,000 support in focus ahead of the Fed meeting.

Long-term Real Yields Continue to Drift Lower Long-term real yields in the United States have been drifting lower even before this announcement, including the 10-year real yield dropping to a reading of 2.77% from 2.88% recorded on October 13. This is typically a good signal for gold to appreciate, but it is also still historically elevated. Therefore, inflation-adjusted government returns can reduce the opportunity cost of holding an asset such as gold that has no yield. But when it is still fairly elevated, it does not have that effect quite yet.

Simply put, we are moving in the correct direction for gold bulls, but there still seems to be some way to go. That being said, the size of the drop in real yields is fairly short-duration and not big enough to declare that there is a complete change in monetary policy or the monetary environment.

Nominal Rates Nominal rates also show why the phrase “yields fell” needs clarification. The 10-year Treasury yield declined from 5.15% to 5.12% to kick off the week, but the 2-year increased from 4.77% to 4.79%. In other words, the market has not seen a uniform easing across maturities. This combination is consistent with different pressures on near-term policy-sensitive rates and longer-term financing conditions.

Last month’s CPI rate being subtracted from the nominal yield would mix backward inflation measures with a forward-looking return. That shortcut obscures the financial signal the markets are tracking. The real yield series provides a more consistent comparison along the recent daily observation, as opposed to simply taking the nominal yield.

Tension Between Economic Resilience and Restrictive Financing Census and HUD reported on October 20 that September housing starts were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.221 million, an estimate 5.2% below revised August. This also adds more context. The report’s uncertainty interval around that monthly change is plus or minus 11.8 percentage points, so the estimated decline was not distinguishable from zero. Housing permits were at a 1.4 million annual rate, down 0.2% monthly.

Softer rate-sensitive activity can encourage expectations of eventual policy relief, but one noisy housing estimate will not be enough to establish an economy-wide downturn. It will simply end up being yet another piece of the puzzle.

September CPI Inflation remains the competing constraint. September CPI, released on October 14, rose 0.6% month-over-month after seasonal adjustment and 3.7% over 12 months before adjustment. Core CPI increased 0.3% monthly and 2.6% annually. The September PPI, released on October 15, increased 1.3% monthly after adjustment and 6.3% annually before adjustment.

Gold Price Forecast

Every new Gold analysis as it publishes, today's technical signal and key levels, live price — on one page.

See all Gold forecasts This creates two possible outcomes for gold. Concern about purchasing power can strengthen demand for protection, while a forceful monetary response can raise the return available on competing assets. PPI increases also need not pass through to the customer. Inflation, margins, and demand affect that process.

Fed Meeting Coming Next Week The next scheduled Federal Reserve meeting is October 27 and 28. This decision is expected to be the Federal Reserve holding, but a sustained decline in real yields combined with evidence of slowing activity could reinforce more accommodation via the Federal Reserve and therefore give a boost to gold.

The chart below tracks every published 10-year real yield observation starting October 13, with calendar gaps preserved on the graph. That being said, the situation in the Middle East seems to have taken front and center yet again, and therefore we may see continued fear in a market that remains nervous about the conflict between the Americans and the Iranians.

U.S. 10-year real Treasury yields fell from 2.88% on October 13 to 2.77% on October 20, easing from 2.80% the previous day. Technical Setup

Gold futures trade near $4,089.50, below resistance at $4,200, with the next major support at $4,000. Gold is currently reacting to the bad news coming out of the Middle East. As things stand at the moment, the $4,000 level is an area that must hold if gold is going to keep any bullish attitude at all. Watching this area for a bounce is how I am looking to play the market. A move below that level would be very bearish, to say the least.

Gold (XAU/USD) slips below $4,100 on Thursday despite a softer US Dollar (USD) and falling US Treasury yields. The precious metal struggles to attract buyers as energy-driven inflation concerns from Middle East tensions reinforce expectations that interest rates will remain elevated longer. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades around $4,069, down 1.70% on the day.

The New York Times reported that the United States (US) and Israel have drawn up plans for renewed strikes against Iran after the US midterm elections, potentially targeting the country's energy infrastructure.

Meanwhile, tensions between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis continue to escalate, with fresh attacks reported on Saudi Arabia's Shaybah oil field and King Fahd International Airport. The US State Department has also ordered non-emergency government employees and their family members to leave Saudi Arabia.

Fresh geopolitical headlines have raised concerns about further disruptions to Middle East energy supplies, pushing Oil prices higher. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rebounds toward $100, up 1.40% on the day and trading near five-week highs.

The ongoing energy shock has pushed inflation above central bank targets across major economies, prompting policymakers to raise borrowing costs. Higher interest rates reduce the appeal of the non-yielding metal despite its traditional role as a safe-haven asset and an inflation hedge. The longer the conflict drags on, the longer central banks may need to keep monetary policy restrictive.

Traders now look ahead to next week's Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting, where the US central bank is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged after raising them by 25 basis points (bps) in September. Markets will closely watch for clues about the Fed's interest rate path, as traders price in another rate hike in December, with the CME FedWatch Tool placing the odds at 89%.

However, these hawkish expectations are providing limited support to the US Dollar and Treasury yields in the near term, with both correcting from recent highs as concerns over AI-related investments weigh on equities and drive demand for government bonds.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, trades around 101.66 after hitting a three-week low of 101.45. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield stands at around 5.06%, down 1% on a daily basis.

Looking ahead, Gold is likely to remain sensitive to interest rate expectations and Oil price movements, although weakness in the US Dollar and Treasury yields could keep losses contained.

Technical analysis: XAU/USD tests lower Bollinger Band

On the daily chart, XAU/USD tests the lower Bollinger Band near $4,069, while trading below the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), which forms the middle Bollinger Band around $4,153, keeping the near-term bias tilted to the downside.

The Relative Strength Index hovers in the high-30s, hinting at lingering downside pressure, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) stays marginally positive but has rolled over, suggesting that recent recovery momentum is fading rather than strengthening.

On the upside, initial resistance is seen at the 20-period SMA near $4,153, followed by the upper Bollinger Band around $4,237. A sustained break above these levels could open the door toward $4,400, followed by the $4,500 psychological mark.

On the downside, immediate support lies at the lower Bollinger Band near $4,069. A clear break below this level could expose the $4,000 psychological mark, followed by the June lows around $3,950.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Gold FAQs

Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

Rising oil prices from geopolitical tensions are raising inflation expectations and strengthening the case for tighter Fed policy, which in turn weakens support for gold as a safe-haven asset.

Higher energy prices directly increase inflation expectations, prompting markets to price in a longer period of high interest rates. This increases the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold.

Markets see little chance of a rate hike at the Fed meeting on 27–28 October, with the probability estimated at just 16.0%. At the same time, traders are pricing in a December rate hike with high confidence, at 90.0%. The prospect of tighter policy in December is keeping the US dollar and bond yields elevated, preventing gold from recovering.

Today, gold is feeling the effects of higher oil prices. As long as the threat of energy supply disruptions remains, the inflation premium will limit XAU/USD’s upside, despite strong demand from central banks.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart, XAU/USD remains in a downtrend. The market formed another downward wave towards 4,091 USD, confirming sellers’ dominance. Today, a corrective rise towards 4,103 USD cannot be ruled out, followed by a possible retest from below of previously broken support. Once the correction is complete, the decline is expected to continue towards 4,057 USD. A break below this level would open the way towards the next target at 4,022 USD. The nearest resistance is at 4,127 USD. The MACD indicator confirms that the bearish scenario remains intact: the histogram is in negative territory and the signal line is below zero, indicating persistent selling pressure and limiting prospects for a sustained recovery.

On the H1 chart, XAU/USD broke below support at 4,103 USD and developed downward momentum towards 4,088 USD. The price is currently attempting to stabilise around 4,091 USD. A short-term consolidation range could form, followed by a corrective return towards 4,103 USD. This level is considered key to assessing the next move. If the price closes below it, another downward wave towards 4,057 USD is expected, with scope for a further decline towards 4,022 USD. The Stochastic oscillator is oversold below 20, allowing for a short-term technical rebound. However, a reversal signal has not yet formed. The main scenario for the upcoming trading session remains a continuation of the decline following a possible retest of broken support. A move above 4,127 USD would weaken the current bearish scenario and require a reassessment of the near-term targets.

Conclusion
Gold remains under pressure as rising oil prices, driven by geopolitical tensions, increase inflation expectations and strengthen the case for tighter Fed policy. While markets see only a 16.0% probability of an October rate hike, a December rate hike is priced in with a 90.0% probability, keeping the US dollar and bond yields elevated and weighing on the non-yielding metal. Despite strong central bank demand, the inflation premium continues to limit gold’s upside. Technically, the bearish trend remains intact, with a possible corrective rebound towards 4,103 USD before the decline resumes towards 4,057 USD and potentially 4,022 USD. A move above resistance at 4,127 USD would weaken the current bearish scenario and require a reassessment of the near-term targets.

ActionForex

ActionForex.com was set up back in 2004 with the aim to provide insightful analysis to forex traders, serving the trading community for two decades. We started providing only a daily and a mid-day report, now known as Action Insights. Gradually, we added a lot more in-house contents to the site. Technical Outlook section was expanded to cover more pairs. In addition to that, Top Movers, Heat Map, Pivot Point Charts and Pivot Meters, Action Bias and Volatility Charts, are tools used by traders from all over the world.

Societe Generale analysts observe that Gold has formed an interim low near $4,065 and is consolidating in a narrow range. They flag resistance at $4,200/4,225 and warn that failure to break higher could trigger a deeper correction toward the June low at $3,960/3,940 and projections near $3,830, with $4,065 acting as initial support.

Consolidation with downside potential "Gold carved out an interim low near $4,065 earlier this month and has since evolved within a narrow consolidation."

"The upper boundary of this range at $4,200/4,225 represents a short-term resistance zone."

"Failure to overcome this hurdle could denote the risk of a deeper pullback."

"The lower boundary of the consolidation near $4,065 serves as the first support."

"A break below this may extend the decline towards the June low at $3,960/3,940 and projections near $3,830."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

Gold prices fell in India on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

The price for Gold stood at 12,407.10 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, down compared with the INR 12,561.63 it cost on Wednesday.

The price for Gold decreased to INR 144,714.00 per tola from INR 146,516.50 per tola a day earlier.

Unit measure

Gold Price in INR

1 Gram

12,407.10

10 Grams

124,073.90

Tola

144,714.00

Troy Ounce

385,904.20

FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.

Gold FAQs

Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

Gold price (XAU/USD) holds steady around $4,125 during the early Asian session on Thursday. The precious metal fluctuated as traders continue to assess the outlook for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest-rate path on the back of ongoing tensions in the Middle East.

Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh last week avoided signalling the outcome of this month’s policy meeting but noted that hotter-than-expected inflation had not changed his assessment of the US economy. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the chance of no change in rate at the October meeting now stands at 84%.

Even with a hold widely expected next week, markets continue to price in another increase at the December meeting, which keeps the policy outlook tilted toward tightening. This, in turn, could weigh on the yellow metal. Higher interest rates typically weigh on gold because the precious metal does not pay interest, making yield-bearing assets relatively more attractive.

Additionally, elevated energy costs increase the possibility that the US central bank will need to further adjust monetary policy to contain price pressures.

Escalating supply risks in the Middle East keep traders on edge. Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Wednesday that “while ‌‌Iran is firmly committed to seeking a dignified peaceful resolution to the conflict, we are also fully prepared to defend ourselves.” Meanwhile, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian stated that the US cannot expect dialogue with Iran while blockading and threatening it.

Risk appetite shifts as France unrest weighs on equities and Dollar firmsAnalysts at Commerzbank highlight a clear divergence across markets, noting that "European equities declined amid political unrest in France, while US Treasury yields rose as the equity recovery reduced safe-haven demand." In this backdrop, they add that "the USD was slightly firmer," reflecting a modest shift back toward the Dollar as risk sentiment stabilised in US assets.

Commerzbank also points to softer commodity prices, reporting that "Brent crude oil prices fell 0.3% to USD109.55" and that "Gold fell 0.6% to USD4,141," underscoring how the combination of higher US yields and reduced safe-haven demand has weighed on traditional hedges.

Warsh cautious on crisis scars but upbeat on investment surge and AIFed Chair Warsh delivered a moderately constructive tone, with the FXS Speechtracker score at 5.6/10, slightly softer relative to the historical average of 6.1/10 and suggesting only modest incremental information for markets. The admission of being “over-scarred” by the Global Financial Crisis underscores a persistent bias toward caution on financial stability, even as Warsh highlights structural growth, an investment surge, and confidence in delivering price stability without pre-committing to October or December decisions. Warsh’s focus on AI as a near-term demand-side force and a tool to strengthen data and monetary policy signals a forward-looking stance that could ultimately support the Dollar if productivity and growth expectations firm.

The FXS Fed Sentiment Index was unchanged, moving by 0.00 points to a still-hawkish level of 127.51, indicating that the speech did not materially shift the perceived policy stance despite the slightly lower FXS Speechtracker score. The combination of elevated index readings and a neutral day-on-day change suggests that markets continue to view the Fed as firmly in hawkish territory, with Warsh’s cautious crisis scars balanced by optimism on investment and AI-driven growth.

Technical Analysis: Gold remains capped under the 100-day SMAIn the daily chart, XAU/USD remains under pressure, with spot quoted below the 20-period Bollinger simple moving average and the 100-day moving average, which keeps the near-term bias bearish. Price is holding above the lower Bollinger Band, hinting at a short-term consolidation rather than a full-fledged breakdown, while the Relative Strength Index at 42.60 stays in neutral-to-soft territory, suggesting downside momentum is present but not overstretched.

On the topside, initial resistance emerges at the Bollinger midline near $4,160, followed by the 100-day moving average at $4,230, with the upper Bollinger Band at $4,255 acting as a stronger cap if bulls attempt a rebound. On the downside, immediate support is located at the lower Bollinger Band around $4,070; a sustained break beneath this floor would open the door for a deeper pullback, whereas holding above it would keep XAU/USD in a bearish but range-bound posture.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

Weekly Spot Gold (XAU/USD) Spot Gold is edging lower for the week, but is still holding above a major retracement zone and attempting to form a secondary higher bottom. The market is also below $4,481.78, which is 20% down from the all-time high at $5,602.23. To some, this represents a bear market.

The main trend is down according to the weekly swing chart. A trade through $4,697.11 will change the main trend to up. A move through $3,942.10 will reaffirm the downtrend.

The minor trend is also down. A trade through $4,217.39 will change the minor trend to up and could shift momentum to the upside.

Gold Price Forecast

Every new Gold analysis as it publishes, today's technical signal and key levels, live price — on one page.

See all Gold forecasts The major retracement support zone is $4,069.54 to $3,707.82. Minor 50% levels at $4,319.60 and $4,381.81 are potential resistance. These levels are just below the 52-week moving average at $4,453.78, which is providing both resistance and bearish trend guidance.

Daily Spot Gold (XAUUSD) Technical Analysis A move through $4,073.55 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. Taking out the swing bottom at $4,066.54 will reaffirm the downtrend.

Controlling the trade today is a pair of 50% levels at $4,141.97 and $4,145.47. Look for a potentially bullish tone to develop on a sustained move over $4,145.47 and the bearish tone to continue on a sustained move under $4,141.97.

What to Watch For Weekly Spot Gold, my bias is to the downside. It’s being supported by the trade on the weak side of the 52-week moving average and the downtrends on both the minor and main swing charts. A trade through $4,217.39 will turn the minor trend up and weaken my bearish outlook.

For Daily Spot Gold, my bias is also to the downside, with $4,073.55 and $4,066.54 as potential targets. A failure at these two levels will open the door for an even steeper break into longer-term targets at $3,942.10 and $3,886.46. My outlook will weaken on a sustained move over the pivot at $4,145.47.

Gold Moves Higher On Weaker Dollar

Gold 211026 Daily Chart
Gold attempts to rebound as traders focus on weaker dollar and falling oil prices. U.S. dollar is losing some ground against a broad basket of currencies despite the continuation of the sell-off in French bond markets.

The yield of 10-year French government bonds climbed above the psychologically important 5.00% level. Such yields were last seen back in 2002. Bond traders are worried about long-term sustainability of French finances.

Violent protests may force the country to boost spending in order to calm tensions. Such a move would put additional pressure on the weak bond market and push French yields towards higher levels.

It remains to be seen whether problems in France will provide additional support to gold markets in the near term. In the long term, gold’s key function is to protect investors from the insolvency of governments. In this light, the situation in France is bullish for gold.

I’d note that investors may prefer to focus on rising yields in the short term. Gold pays no interest, so rising yields in global bond markets serve as a negative catalyst for gold prices.

Oil markets pulled back as U.S. – Iran talks continued. High oil prices push inflation higher, so central banks will be forced to continue the rate hike cycle. Central banks may become dovish in case oil prices fall after a potential U.S. – Iran deal, so pullbacks in oil markets are bullish for gold.

Gold is moving towards the nearest resistance level, which is located in the $4160 – $4180 range. In case gold climbs above the $4180 level, it will head towards the next resistance at $4300 – $4320. RSI is in the moderate territory, so there is plenty of room to gain momentum in the near term.

Silver Retreats As Gold/Silver Ratio Settles Above 71.50

Silver 211026 Daily Chart
Silver pulls back as traders take some profits off the table after recent rebound. Gold/silver ratio climbed back above the 71.50 level, which was bearish for silver.

If silver manages to settle above the $58.00 level, it will head towards the $60.00 level. In case silver climbs above $60.00, it will move towards the resistance at $61.00 – $62.00.

On the support side, a successful test of the support at $56.00 – $57.00 will open the way to the test of the support level at $51.00 – $52.00.

Gold Price Forecast

Every new Gold analysis as it publishes, today's technical signal and key levels, live price — on one page.

See all Gold forecasts

Platinum Pulls Back As Traders Take Profits After Recent Rebound

Platinum 211026 Daily Chart
Platinum moved lower despite weaker dollar and falling oil prices. Palladium markets were down by -1.1%, putting additional pressure on platinum.

Currently, platinum is trying to settle back below the support level at $1600 – $1620. In case this attempt is successful, platinum will head towards the next support, which is located in the $1520 – $1540 range.

On the upside, a move above the $1650 level will open the way to the test of the resistance level at $1700 – $1720. If platinum climbs above the $1720 level, it will head towards the 50 MA at $1745.

If you’d like to know more about how to trade gold and silver, please visit our educational area.

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Gold (XAU/USD) hits a fresh weekly low during the Asian session on Wednesday, with bears still awaiting a sustained break and acceptance below the $4,100 mark before positioning for further losses. Inflation risks stemming from volatile oil prices underpin prospects for further policy tightening by the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Furthermore, a modest US Dollar (USD) recovery from a nearly three-week low, touched on Tuesday, is seen weighing on the bullion.

Crude oil prices staged a dramatic intraday turnaround from an over one-month peak on Tuesday amid renewed hopes for US-Iran peace talks. In fact, an unconfirmed report said that Qatar and Pakistan had offered a middle-ground plan to the US and Iran that met the demands of both sides. However, Bloomberg later reported that a diplomat involved in US-Iran negotiations disputed news suggesting that a deal was close. Moreover, state media said Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf told Pakistan’s Army Chief, Asim Munir, that the US could not earn Iran’s trust without meeting previously declared conditions, including the cessation of all hostilities and the unfreezing of the country’s assets. This, in turn, tempered expectations of an imminent breakthrough.

Adding to this, Iran’s First Vice President said the country had no choice but to exercise sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, exacerbating worries over crude supply disruptions and assisting oil prices to rebound swiftly from the weekly low. This comes on top of hot US inflation figures, released last week, and reaffirms market bets for an imminent Fed rate hike. According to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, traders are currently pricing in over a 90% chance that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs again in December. Furthermore, the uncertainty surrounding the Middle East crisis offers some support to the safe-haven Greenback, which turns out to be another factor exerting downward pressure on the Gold price for the fourth day in a row and backs the case for deeper losses.

Investors, however, might refrain from placing aggressive directional bets and opt to wait for more cues about the Fed's policy path. Hence, the focus will remain glued to the outcome of a two-day FOMC policy meeting on October 28 and the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index – the Fed's preferred inflation gauge due for release on October 29. Apart from this, next week's monetary policy updates from other major central banks – the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), the Bank of Canada (BoC), the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) – should provide some meaningful impetus to the non-yielding Gold. Nevertheless, the broader fundamental backdrop favors XAU/USD bears and suggests that the path of least resistance remains to the downside.

XAU/USD 4-hour chart

Technical AnalysisThe overnight failed attempt to clear the 100-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart and the subsequent slide validate the negative outlook. Moreover, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains in negative territory with its latest reading at -4.65, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 39.16, reinforcing a weak momentum backdrop without yet signaling oversold conditions. Weakness below the $4,100 mark would reaffirm the bearish bias and expose the monthly swing low, around the $4,066 area.

Some follow-through selling would make the Gold price vulnerable to accelerating the downfall further toward the $4,000 psychological mark en route to the year-to-date low, around the $3,943-$3,942 region, touched in June. On the topside, the 100-period EMA around $4,175 might continue to act as an immediate strong resistance. Sustained strength above this barrier would be needed to ease the current bearish tone and open the way for a stronger recovery phase.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Fed FAQs

Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates.
When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money.
When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.

The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions.
The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.

In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system.
It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.

Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.

Gold (XAU/USD) drifts lower on Tuesday even as US Treasury yields dive and the US Dollar weakens, with a light US economic docket mostly ignored by investors ahead of Federal Reserve’s (Fed) meeting next week. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades at $4,122, down over 0.43%.

XAU/USD slips despite weaker Dollar and yields as central banks signal further tighteningOverall, bullion is poised to consolidate further after last week’s remarks by Fed officials that they are not in a rush to hike rates in October, which investors considered. Consequently, money markets have priced in a 14% chance for an October Fed hike, but for December, the odds are near 90%, according to Prime Terminal.

Fed interest rate probability - Source: Prime TerminalThis week, the US economic schedule is very light. Fed officials commenced their blackout period, which will end with Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference on October 28.

Meanwhile, investors are leaning on US housing data, which showed the effect of higher US bond yields: high mortgage rates are the main reason US Pending Home Sales collapsed by 7.3% in September. Ahead in the week, investors eye Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending on Thursday, forecast to rise from 199K to 200K. Alongside this, S&P Global Flash PMIs will provide an update on sentiment among businesses in the US, and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index will release its final reading for October.

Major central banks expected to increase ratesIn the meantime, officials from major central banks are signaling further monetary policy tightening, a headwind for Gold, which usually fares well in low-interest-rate environments.

Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda recognized that core inflation is “quite close” to the 2% goal, though hinted at further rate hikes. Bank of England (BoE) Megan Greene said that the risks of second-round inflation effects are higher than thought, adding that the current policy stance “is not restrictive enough.”

XAU/USD technical analysis: Gold pressured below $4,200, eyes on $4,100Gold trades laterally within $ 4,100 and $4,200, extending its losses for the third straight day, even though it has shown signs of bottoming out near the lower end of the range. Nevertheless, uncertainty continues to weigh on bullion prices, with speculation that the Fed could raise rates in December.

Momentum favors further downside as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains bearish, although it has flattened somewhat.

For a bearish continuation, sellers must clear $4,100. Once surpassed, the next stop is the October 14 low at $4,073, ahead of the July 29 cycle low at $3,996. On further weakness, the next areas of interest are the July 17 low at $3,959 and the year-to-date (YTD) low at $3,941.

For a bullish reversal, XAU/USD’s first resistance is $4,200, followed by the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,235. Above sits the 50-day SMA at $4,321, with the $4,500 mark above it.

Gold daily chart
Gold FAQs

Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

Gold Price Holds Above $4,100 as HSBC Defends Its Longer-Term Role HSBC sees lasting support for gold from reserve diversification, but forced selling can overwhelm that demand while higher interest rates weigh. The gold price in US dollars held around $4,134 an ounce at 15:19 BST on Tuesday, leaving bullion roughly 5.4% lower over the past month despite continuing demand for protection against fiscal and geopolitical risks.

HSBC Asset Management remains positive about gold's longer-term role, but cautions that the metal may offer little protection during an abrupt equity sell-off.

Bank of America's forecasts allow for that difficult near-term period: it projects $4,000 an ounce for the fourth quarter of 2026 before $5,000 in the second and third quarters of 2027.

Why gold can fall when investors seek safety HSBC writes: “But recent market action has shown gold failing to hedge against equity drawdowns. With leveraged capital crowded into gold, tumbling stocks trigger margin calls that force investors to unwind positions to raise cash.”

Gold can therefore be sold to meet losses in other markets, rather than because its owners have abandoned concerns about government debt or the purchasing power of currencies.

Evidence from September shows how different groups of buyers and sellers can pull prices in opposing directions.

The World Gold Council recorded $10bn of global gold ETF inflows during the month, yet managed-money net futures positions contracted by $12bn.

The council said: “This futures liquidation likely contributed to September’s price decline, highlighting the divergence between ETF and derivatives market flows.”

The council also identified rising Treasury yields and a stronger Dollar as pressures on bullion.

The figures do not measure the same transactions and should not be netted against one another, but they show why evidence of buying alone cannot establish that prices have found a floor.

HSBC cautions: "So although gold looks to be a robust hedge against systemic risks in a “multi-polar” world, it’s not guaranteed to work as a short-term volatility dampener."

The buyers behind the longer-term case HSBC says “there is still a compelling strategic rationale for the metal in portfolios as geopolitical fragmentation and central bank reserve diversification keep demand supported.”

It adds: "The “debasement trade” of shifting capital into “hard assets” such as gold can continue as concerns over debt and inflation linger."

That argument concerns demand to reduce exposure to currencies and government liabilities over time.

The World Gold Council's latest central-bank figures provide some support: reported net purchases reached 39 tonnes in August, with established buyers continuing their accumulation programmes.

Those purchases predate the latest market turbulence, so they cannot demonstrate how official buyers have responded to October's decline.

HSBC offers no numerical gold target in this assessment.

BofA continues to project an uneven path towards $5,000, with weakness before the stronger part of 2027.

Its metals team identifies the immediate obstacles: “The Iran war, higher oil prices, rising rates and a stronger USD are near-term headwinds.”

Higher interest rates increase the income forgone by holding bullion, while expensive energy can delay relief by sustaining inflation and pressure for further tightening.

BofA nevertheless says: “The wider macro environment, including the US’ unorthodox economic policies are ultimately supportive.”

The bank adds: “The hawkish Fed tilt will likely cap prices near-term”.

Gold Price FAQ Does HSBC have a gold price target?

Its assessment makes a positive longer-term case for gold without setting a numerical target.

When does BofA expect gold at $5,000?

BofA projects $5,000 an ounce for the second and third quarters of 2027, following a weaker fourth quarter of 2026.

Why can gold fall despite demand for safe assets?

Leveraged investors may sell gold to meet demands for cash elsewhere, while higher interest rates raise the opportunity cost of holding it.

Referenced assets

Hawkish Central Bank Expectations: Persistent inflationary pressures (with U.S. CPI at 3.7% in September) keep central banks hawkish, with market pricing leaning toward further Fed rate hikes or a “higher for longer” policy through early 2027.Opposing Macro Forces on Gold: While high inflation provides safe-haven demand for gold, rising Treasury yields and a strong U.S. dollar from central bank tightening increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion, creating downside pressure on gold.Technical Bullish Flag Formation: Despite the recent price retreat from peaks near 5,600 within a descending channel, the technical structure views the move as a potential bullish flag pattern within the long-term uptrend since 2023, supported by key support between 4,000–4,120.

Macroeconomic Drivers & Central Bank Policy

Major central banks and economic bureaus are set to publish crucial inflation metrics in late October and early November 2026, including the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan monetary policy meetings on October 29–30, followed by the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) release for October on November 10. Recent indicators show persistent inflationary pressure driven by sticky energy and shelter costs, with headline U.S. CPI rising to 3.7% year-over-year in September. These upcoming releases will reveal whether price pressures are structural or temporary, determining whether global headline inflation continues to hover well above the target 2% threshold in major economies.

In response, central banks—most notably the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)—are maintaining a hawkish posture to rein in persistent inflation. Following a 25-basis-point rate hike to a target range of 3.75%–4.00% in September 2026, the FOMC enters its October 27–28 policy meeting under close market scrutiny as officials weigh additional tightening before year-end. If inflation data remain elevated, central banks will keep benchmark rates “higher for longer” or implement incremental rate hikes, thereby dampening economic expansion and cooling consumer demand.

These macroeconomic dynamics exert two opposing forces on gold prices. Higher inflation data initially boosts demand for gold as a traditional inflation hedge and safe-haven store of value. However, persistent inflation triggers hawkish rate responses from the FOMC, driving up real yields on U.S. Treasuries and strengthening the U.S. dollar, thereby increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion and pressuring prices downward. Ultimately, if upcoming CPI prints come in hotter than expected and prompt additional Fed rate hikes, gold is likely to experience short-term selling pressure; conversely, softer inflation data that signals an end to central bank tightening would provide strong tailwinds for a gold rally.

CME FedWatch Rate Expectations

Source: CME FedWatch tool. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

According to CME FedWatch Tool pricing as of October 19, 2026, market expectations are overwhelmingly centered on additional Federal Reserve tightening through early 2027. For the upcoming October 28, 2026 meeting, markets reflect an 82.8% probability that the target rate will settle in the 375–400 bps range (indicating a hold at current levels) and a 17.2% chance of a hike to 400–425 bps. Heading into the final meeting of the year on December 9, 2026, sentiment shifts strongly toward a rate increase, with a 76.5% probability priced for a target range of 400–425 bps and a 15.5% probability placed on a further hike to 425–450 bps.

Looking ahead to the first policy meeting of 2027 on January 27, the market expects rates to remain elevated, with probabilities favoring either maintaining the 400–425 bps target (46.6%) or adjusting upward to the 425–450 bps band (42.1%).

XAU/USD weekly chart technical analysis and COT report updates

Source: XAU/USD W1, OANDA, TradingView. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

The price has been moving down within a well-defined descending channel (red trendlines) following a major peak near 5,600. So far, until proven otherwise, the descending channel can be considered a bullish flag formation for the initial long-term uptrend that began in early 2023 and is marked by the blue line.Immediate support lies below price action, between the monthly S1 and the 2023 uptrend, in the 4000-4120 range. A second level of support falls at the annual pivot point of 3829.12.An immediate confluence of resistance lies above price action, at the intersection of the fast EMA9 and the monthly pivot point of 4259.64. A second level of resistance falls near the monthly R1 of 4408.42, intersecting with the upper border of the flag formation.Lagging momentum indicators, including the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Stochastic Oscillator, remain constructively aligned with the underlying price action, tracking positively without exhibiting severe divergence.The latest COT report released by the CFTC on Friday, October 16th, 2026, which includes data up to the end of day, Tuesday, October 13th, 2026, reflects that the most recent decline in gold price, which began in August of 2026, was accompanied by relatively unchanged open interest and declining volume. This suggests that the COT data did not support the price drop and a potential change in sentiment.

Conclusion

In summary, the outlook for XAU/USD remains framed by a tug-of-war between persistent hawkish central bank expectations and a constructively bullish long-term technical structure. While sustained inflationary pressure and market expectations of “higher for longer” Federal Reserve interest rates present ongoing macroeconomic headwinds—dampening bullion demand via elevated real yields and a strong U.S. dollar—the technical picture suggests that the recent price consolidation forms a bullish flag within a broader secular uptrend. A decisive breakout above immediate technical resistance around the 4,260–4,408 confluence region would signal a resumption of the broader rally, whereas a breakdown below primary support at 4,000–4,120 could expose lower pivot levels near 3,829.

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About the Author

Moheb Hanna

Market Analyst

With over 15 years' experience in the forex markets, on both the research and client relations sides, Moheb specialises in technical, trade-focused market analysis. He has worked at a number of top financial institutions, publishing daily commentary and driving sales for retail and institutional clients. A CMT Charter member, Moheb holds a globally recognised CFTe designation.

With over 15 years' experience in the forex markets, on both the research and client relations sides, Moheb specialises in technical, trade-focused market analysis. He has worked at a number of top financial institutions, publishing daily commentary and driving sales for retail and institutional clients. A CMT Charter member, Moheb holds a globally recognised CFTe designation.

Gold holds firm, Bitcoin reclaims 82k — But Sunday’s bounce still looks suspiciousGold and Bitcoin shows resilience as the new trading week opens with a cautious tone across global markets as investors digest last week’s inflation shocks and prepare for a heavy macro calendar ahead. 

XRP struggles at support as ETF outflows and bearish momentum cloud recovery outlookRipple (XRP) holds slightly above $1.30 on Monday, with short-term recovery prospects fading. Strong structural resistance toward $1.40 continues to cap upside, raising the risk of further downside below $1.30.

Bitcoin vs Gold Forecast: BTC edges up, XAU struggles below $4,200 as Fed decision stays in focusBitcoin (BTC) trades higher, above $82,000 on Monday, helping lift broader crypto market sentiment after last week's correction near $80,000. The release of the United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which showed sticky inflation, caught many by surprise and triggered the sell-off in the second half of the week.

Gold (XAU/USD) is struggling to capitalize on a weaker US Dollar (USD), after repeatedly failing to establish itself above the $4,200 level. The precious metal remains confined to a relatively narrow trading range despite a combination of developments that would normally support higher prices.

The US Dollar retreated last week, while United States (US) Treasury yields fell sharply from their recent highs as investors reassessed the Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate outlook and growing concerns surrounding Artificial Intelligence (AI) investments.

Under normal circumstances, this combination should provide meaningful support for Gold. A weaker US Dollar makes the metal more affordable for international buyers, while declining bond yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding an asset that pays no interest.

Yet Gold's recovery remains surprisingly restrained. The divergence suggests that investors are looking beyond the immediate retreat in the US Dollar and Treasury yields. Persistent inflation, expectations of further monetary tightening and uncertainty surrounding the sustainability of the recent bond rally are preventing buyers from committing to a more decisive advance.

The question is no longer simply whether the US Dollar can continue falling. It is whether the forces pushing it lower are strong enough to overcome the monetary policy risks still weighing on Gold.

The US Dollar weakened, but Gold missed its opportunityThe US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the Greenback against six major currencies, ended last week lower after four consecutive weekly advances, retreating from a year-to-date high near 102.95. The decline occurred despite stronger-than-expected US inflation figures, which would typically reinforce expectations of higher interest rates and support the Greenback.

Meanwhile, the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield fell on Friday, extending a sharp correction driven partly by concerns about the outlook for AI-related investment and economic growth.

Gold initially benefited from this adjustment, recovering from its post-inflation sell-off toward $4,200. However, the metal failed to extend its gains convincingly and continues to struggle below that psychological level. The limited reaction is particularly revealing because both major financial variables that traditionally influence Gold moved in its favor.

US Dollar Index (blue) vs XAU/USD (yellow). Source: FXStreetBut the relationship between Gold, the US Dollar and Treasury yields is not mechanical. The reasons behind changes in interest rates can matter as much as the direction of those changes.

In this case, falling yields partly reflect growing concerns about financial markets and future economic activity rather than clear evidence that inflation is returning toward the Fed's target. That distinction helps explain why investors remain reluctant to aggressively increase their exposure to the precious metal.

The Fed is still the problem Gold cannot ignoreThe latest US inflation figures provide an important explanation for Gold's hesitation. The September Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.7% YoY, exceeding expectations of 3.6% and up from 3.4% in August. Meanwhile, the Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 6.3% annually, significantly above the 5.3% consensus. These figures suggest that inflationary pressures remain persistent, complicating the Fed's efforts to restore price stability.

US Consumer Price Index. Source: CNBCAlthough investors have substantially reduced expectations of another interest rate hike at the October 27-28 meeting, they continue to anticipate additional tightening before year-end. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets assign approximately a 17% chance of an October rate hike, while the chance of a December increase remains close to 90%.

This creates an uncomfortable environment for Gold. Even if the US Dollar temporarily weakens, the prospect of higher interest rates limits the attractiveness of holding a non-yielding asset. Furthermore, any renewed increase in Treasury yields could quickly undermine the precious metal's recovery.

Nordea analysts maintain a particularly hawkish assessment of the monetary policy outlook, stating that they "still expect one more hike this year and another next year, with the risks tilted to the upside." The bank also argues that "monetary policy still does not look restrictive enough for an economy in this shape," emphasizing that inflation remains significantly above the Fed's objective.

For Gold investors, the implication is important. A temporary decline in the US Dollar does not necessarily signal the beginning of a sustained monetary easing cycle. As long as the Fed remains inclined toward further tightening, Gold may struggle to translate currency weakness into a durable rally.

Falling bond yields may be sending the wrong signalThe US Treasury market has become another source of uncertainty. Last week's decline in government bond yields initially appeared supportive of Gold, particularly after investors moved toward safer assets amid concerns about the sustainability of the AI investment boom.

According to Deutsche Bank, "the theme of the day was a big global rate rally, as the prospect of slower AI growth pushed yields lower across the board." The bank noted that the US 10-year Treasury yield declined by 12.7 basis points to 5.06%, even as economic data continued to point toward persistent inflation.

US 10-year bond yield. Source: TradingViewThis apparent contradiction matters for Gold. Lower nominal bond yields generally support the precious metal, but the effect also depends on inflation expectations and real yields, which represent the inflation-adjusted return available to investors. If Treasury yields decline because inflation expectations are falling faster than nominal yields, the resulting increase in real yields could limit Gold's attractiveness. Conversely, a sustained decline in real yields would provide stronger fundamental support for the metal.

Analysts at OCBC capture this distinction particularly well, describing the latest recovery as "another reminder that Gold is trading the bond market’s reaction to US data rather than the data itself." The bank also warns that "underlying inflation pressures remain elevated, and the recent decline in yields has been partly driven by risk aversion rather than improving inflation fundamentals."

This suggests that Gold's recent recovery may remain vulnerable if Treasury yields stabilize or resume their advance. The key question, therefore, is not simply whether yields are falling, but whether the decline reflects a lasting improvement in financial conditions for non-yielding assets.

Gold's resilience is real, but so is the lack of convictionDespite its inability to overcome $4,200, Gold is not experiencing a broad collapse in demand. The precious metal has recovered from its recent decline toward $4,073, suggesting that buyers remain willing to absorb selling pressure at lower prices.

This resilience is consistent with the investment flows highlighted by TD Securities. The bank notes that "macro discretionary positions remain elevated, while ETF inflows and central bank demand also remain strong." According to its analysts, these flows "have ultimately offered strong support for gold," and are expected to "remain robust, especially in the $4,000-4,100/oz region."

This creates an important distinction between a market lacking sufficient momentum to rally and one experiencing a structural deterioration in demand. Short-term investors remain sensitive to inflation surprises, changes in Treasury yields and shifting expectations for monetary policy. Meanwhile, longer-term investment demand appears more resilient.

As a result, Gold can remain supported without necessarily developing a sustained upward trend. The current price behavior may therefore reflect a confrontation between two groups of investors: those concerned about further monetary tightening and those willing to accumulate Gold as a longer-term portfolio asset. Neither side has established a decisive advantage.

Gold (XAU/USD) daily chart. Source: FXStreetThe next move depends on what happens after the Dollar's declineThe Fed's upcoming October 27-28 meeting will be an important test for Gold. With policymakers entering their blackout period, investors will have fewer opportunities to reassess the central bank's intentions through official speeches.

Attention will consequently shift toward Treasury yields, geopolitical developments and upcoming US economic indicators, particularly the preliminary Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) figures.

Three broad scenarios could emerge. If Treasury yields continue declining and markets further reduce expectations of monetary tightening, Gold could finally benefit more decisively from a weaker US Dollar.

If yields rebound as inflation concerns persist, the metal may remain under pressure even if the US Dollar struggles to recover.

A third possibility is that AI-related concerns deepen, weakening both US equities and the Greenback while encouraging additional Treasury purchases. In that environment, Gold's direction would depend heavily on whether falling real yields and safe-haven demand outweigh fears of persistent inflation.

The recent market reaction has already demonstrated that US Dollar weakness alone is not enough to guarantee higher Gold prices. The precious metal continues to attract underlying demand, but investors remain unwilling to disregard the prospect of additional Fed tightening.

Ultimately, the most revealing development is not the US Dollar’s fall. It is that Gold has struggled to capitalize on it. That hesitation suggests the market is still treating the recent decline in Treasury yields as potentially temporary, rather than as confirmation of a more favorable monetary environment.

Until that perception changes, Gold may continue finding buyers on declines without generating the sustained momentum needed for a stronger rally. The US Dollar has already offered Gold an opportunity. The bond market and the Fed will determine whether it can finally take it.