Gold daily chart shows a potential double bottom forming above the $4,000 area. Source: TradingView Dynamic resistance is represented by the 50-day moving average, at $4,230 currently, which will soon converge with the $4,203 area, adding to the significance of the resistance zone. That would increase the chance that a double bottom breakout would also reclaim the 50-day moving average and therefore improve the chance for an extended recovery. A move through this confluence of resistance would therefore provide a stronger technical confirmation than a breakout above $4,203 alone.
Resistance Confluence Meets Critical Support Despite the potential for an upside move, gold shows significant resistance near the $4,203 pivot. In addition to the 50-day moving average joining the price zone, there is a long-term uptrend line and a shorter downtrend line that align. This week’s low of $4,022 is key short-term support, but it remains possible that a decline to the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $4,004 may yet complete the pullback. If that area fails to hold as support, the chance for a bullish recovery in the near-term weakens. Conversely, holding above this support zone would keep the developing double-bottom setup intact and preserve the potential for a breakout above $4,203.
Path Toward $4,496 If a decisive breakout above $4,203 were to occur, then the 200-day moving average defines the key upside target zone. It is now at $4,496. Since the 200-day moving average was broken in early June, the current advance would be the first notable pullback to test it as resistance. Resistance is therefore anticipated, at least on the initial approach. Therefore, holding $4,022-$4,004 is critical before gold can challenge the $4,203-$4,230 resistance zone and target the 200-day moving average.
If you’d like to know more about how to trade gold and silver, please visit our educational area.
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Key Market Levels $4,000, of course, is a large, round, psychologically significant figure, and that in and of itself probably attracts some attention as well. With this, the market looks very noisy, very choppy, but I think we also have to assume that the market is going to have to make a bigger decision sooner or later.
We are in the dead of summer, and markets can be quiet this time of year, so do keep that in mind. But as things stand right now, this looks like a market that probably is frozen by headlines as well, with the noise in the Middle East. A little bit of sideways action, really not a huge surprise as the markets continue to see a lot of choppiness.
Gold has protected wealth for centuries, but buying, storing, and moving it has never been especially convenient. Tokenized gold such as Tether Gold (XAUT), together with digital wallets such as Solonix Wallet, is creating a more flexible way to gain exposure to the metal — while introducing a new set of risks investors need to understand.
Gold has an unusual place in modern markets. It does not generate earnings, pay interest, or depend on a company’s business model. Yet investors, households, and central banks continue to hold it because it has historically served as a store of value and a portfolio diversifier.
The reasons for owning gold have stayed broadly familiar. The way investors access it has not. Coins and bars remain the most direct form of ownership, while exchange-traded products and mining shares offer more liquid market exposure. Now tokenization is adding another option: a digital token linked to physical gold held in a vault.
This does not turn gold into a new asset. It changes the infrastructure around it. Instead of arranging delivery, storage, and insurance for a physical bar, an investor can hold a divisible digital representation in a compatible wallet and transfer it through blockchain networks.
Why investors still turn to goldGold is often discussed as a defensive asset, especially when inflation is elevated, geopolitical risk increases, or confidence in currencies and government finances weakens. Its performance is not predictable, and it can experience long periods of decline or stagnation. Still, it often behaves differently from equities and bonds, which is why some investors use it as a stabilizing element rather than a source of regular income.
Its appeal also comes from what it is not. A share is a claim on a company, a bond is a promise from a borrower, and a bank deposit depends on a financial institution. Physical gold is not another party’s liability. That characteristic does not remove price risk, but it helps explain why the metal remains relevant even after the end of gold-backed monetary systems.
The renewed accumulation of gold by central banks has reinforced that role. Reserve managers commonly cite diversification, liquidity, and the absence of credit risk among the reasons for holding the metal. Private investors may have different objectives, but the underlying idea is similar: gold can provide exposure to an asset that sits outside the usual chain of financial promises.
The practical limits of physical goldOwning coins or bars gives an investor direct control over the metal. It also creates practical work. The gold must be purchased from a reliable dealer, authenticated, transported, stored, and sometimes insured. Smaller products usually carry higher premiums per gram, and selling can involve a meaningful spread between the quoted market price and the amount a dealer is prepared to pay.
For an investor who wants an emergency reserve outside the financial system, these trade-offs may be acceptable. For someone who wants to adjust a position frequently, invest a smaller amount, or transfer value internationally, physical ownership can be cumbersome.
Gold exchange-traded funds solve part of this problem. They are easy to trade through a brokerage account and can provide efficient price exposure. However, investors generally own shares in a financial vehicle rather than an identified piece of metal, and transactions remain tied to brokers, market hours, fund structures, and custodians.
What tokenized gold actually meansTokenized gold is designed to combine physical backing with digital transferability. A provider issues blockchain-based tokens that represent a defined quantity of gold held by the issuer or a custodian. The token can then be stored in a supported digital wallet, divided into smaller units, and transferred without physically moving the underlying bars each time ownership changes.
That structure can make gold more accessible. An investor does not necessarily need to purchase a full coin, bar, or troy ounce. A position can be built in smaller increments, and the token may be moved at any time when the relevant blockchain and service are available.
Tokenization should not be confused with eliminating intermediaries. The investor still relies on the issuer’s terms, the existence and custody of the gold, the integrity of the smart-contract and blockchain infrastructure, and the security of the wallet used to hold the asset. The metal may be traditional; the ownership and settlement system is not.
How Tether Gold (XAUT) worksTether Gold, commonly identified by the ticker XAUT or XAU₮, is one of the best-known gold-backed tokens. According to its issuer, one whole XAUT token represents one fine troy ounce of gold on a London Good Delivery bar, with the underlying metal held in Swiss vaults.
The token can be divided into smaller units, allowing investors to obtain exposure to less than one full ounce. Its market value is intended to follow the value of the represented gold, although the actual trading price can also be influenced by liquidity, platform fees, spreads, and conditions on the blockchain network being used.
XAUT is therefore different from a dollar-linked stablecoin. It is not designed to remain worth one US dollar. Its value moves with gold, which means holders remain exposed to the same fundamental price risk as other gold investors.
Tether’s significance in the gold market is growing rapidly. According to Reuters, the company held approximately 154 tonnes of gold across its products at the end of the first quarter of 2026. Around 22 tonnes were used to back Tether Gold, while the remainder formed part of the reserves supporting the USDT stablecoin. Reuters also noted that, if Tether were a central bank, its gold holdings would place it among the world’s 20 largest official holders.
Where Solonix Wallet fits inA token is only useful to most people when they have a practical way to acquire, hold, view, and transfer it. This is the role of digital-asset platforms and wallets. Solonix.one positions its Solonix Wallet as a digital environment through which eligible clients can work with supported assets, including tokenized gold in the form of XAUT.
For users who want gold exposure without personally arranging storage or transportation, the model can be straightforward: the investor holds the digital token in Solonix Wallet while the physical backing remains within the custody structure established by the token issuer.
The appeal is mainly practical. A user can work with fractional amounts, view the position alongside other supported digital assets, and transfer tokens through compatible blockchain infrastructure. This can be useful for investors who are comfortable with digital assets but want exposure to something linked to a long-established real-world commodity.
Solonix Wallet does not change the economics of gold. It is an access and management layer. The price can still fall, and the investor still needs to understand the token issuer, custody arrangements, fees, supported networks, withdrawal rules, and the legal availability of the service in their jurisdiction.
A more flexible route, not a risk-free oneTokenized gold replaces some of the operational risks of physical ownership with digital and institutional risks. A holder no longer needs to protect a bar at home, but must protect account credentials and follow safe wallet practices. There may be less concern about testing a coin for authenticity, but more reliance on reserve reporting, the issuer’s contractual framework, and the parties safeguarding the underlying metal.
Blockchain transfers can also be unforgiving. Sending an asset to an incorrect address or through an unsupported network may lead to permanent loss. Service interruptions, cyber incidents, changes in regulation, or reduced market liquidity can affect access and execution even when the underlying gold remains in place.
Redemption is another area that deserves attention. A token may be linked to physical gold, but exchanging digital units for delivered bars is normally governed by the issuer’s conditions, minimum sizes, verification requirements, fees, and geographic limitations. Investors should not assume that holding a small fraction of a token means they can request delivery of the equivalent quantity of metal.
Who might find tokenized gold usefulTokenized gold may suit investors who want gold exposure but prefer digital settlement, fractional ownership, and easier transfers. It may also appeal to existing crypto users who want to diversify away from purely crypto-native assets without leaving blockchain-based infrastructure.
It is less likely to satisfy someone whose main purpose is to keep wealth completely outside digital and financial systems. For that objective, personally controlled coins or bars may be closer to the investor’s intention. Likewise, a traditional gold ETF may remain more convenient for people who already manage their portfolio through a regulated securities broker and do not need blockchain transferability.
The relevant question is not whether one format is universally better. It is which combination of ownership structure, liquidity, custody, convenience, and risk best matches the investor’s objective.
Gold is staying the same while access evolvesGold’s basic investment case has changed little. It remains a non-yielding asset whose price is driven by supply and demand, real interest rates, currency expectations, central-bank activity, and investor sentiment. What is changing is the number of ways people can hold and move exposure to it.
Tokenized products such as XAUT are part of a broader effort to bring real-world assets onto digital rails. Platforms such as Solonix.one and tools such as Solonix Wallet can make that structure easier for eligible users to navigate, particularly when the alternative is arranging the purchase and custody of physical metal themselves.
Convenience, however, should not be mistaken for simplicity at the risk level. Before using Solonix Wallet or any other service for tokenized gold, investors should review the provider’s current terms, security model, fees, supported networks, withdrawal procedures, regulatory status, and the issuer’s documentation for the underlying token.
Tokenization can make gold easier to divide and transfer, but it cannot make prices predictable or replace due diligence.
The $4,000 level continues to act as support and an area that has attracted a lot of attention from gold traders and has shown itself to be important yet again.
Gold Technical Analysis
Gold trades at 4,060.1, consolidating just above $4,000 after falling from its February high near $5,700. Source: TradingView The gold market initially fell a bit during the trading session on Friday but did turn around to show signs of life. The $4,000 level continues to act as support and an area that has attracted a lot of attention in general. It’s a large, round, psychologically significant figure, and an area that had previously been resistance.
Key Market Levels Ultimately, this is a market that I think continues to see a lot of volatility and choppiness, mainly due to the fact that gold is highly influenced by the overall interest rate situation, which has been stronger than usual, and the overall situation when it comes to risk appetite. This is a market that continues to see a lot of questions asked about where flows of capital will end up, as the gold market spins its wheels.
Recently, we’ve seen a lot of money flowing into the US dollar away from precious metals, and then it just went sideways between $4,000 and $4,200. There’s nothing on this chart that suggests the market is about to change that attitude, but we also have to keep in mind that headlines coming out of the Middle East could change everything, and it could happen at any given moment. As we drift into the weekend, it makes sense that the market be somewhat quiet, mainly due to people not wanting to be too overexposed in one direction or the other. This is a market that continues to see a lot of chop, and this is a somewhat confused market.
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We’re heading into the final sessions of the week, and gold continues to hint at a bullish reversal. Admittedly, it also sits close to confirming its next leg lower, leaving a fine line between bullish and bearish scenarios around the 4,000 level—a key area the gold trading community is likely watching.
For a broader perspective, I recently published a couple of StoneX articles examining gold's seasonality in Q3 and market positioning. In a nutshell, seasonality tends to turn more supportive in July before strengthening further in August, delivering a higher historical win rate and stronger average returns.
With gold already down around 30% from its peak to the recent low, the potential for a technical recovery appears reasonable. That is especially true given how unpopular this view has proven on social media whenever I have raised it. As a contrarian, I see that as an encouraging signal rather than a reason for caution.
View related analysis:
US Dollar Rally Builds Momentum, Crude Oil Holds the Key Australian Dollar Jumps as Employment Data Backs RBA Hawkish Bias Japanese Yen Outlook: USD/JPY Breaks Out in Style, GBP/JPY and CAD/JPY in Focus Nasdaq Could Look to KOSPI for Directional Clues Beyond Earnings Gold Futures (GC) Technical Analysis The downtrend on the weekly chart hardly needs pointing out, given gold has fallen by nearly a third this year. Yet for the past four weeks, bears have repeatedly failed to push prices sustainably below 4,000. Weekly trading volumes have also been declining, which is not what we'd typically expect during a grizzly bear market. Meanwhile, the gradual reduction in long futures positions suggests the decline may be a longer-term correction rather than the start of a multi-year top.
A bullish hammer formed three weeks ago, and prices have yet to retest its low. Heading into the final sessions of the week, price action is also shaping a potential inverted hammer around the 4,000 level. Until we see a decisive break or daily close beneath the recent swing lows, I remain on guard for a meaningful bounce.
Crude Oil and the US Dollar Remain the Biggest Risks to Gold Bulls The fly in the ointment is, of course, the stronger US dollar. However, if tensions in the Middle East begin to ease, it could pave the way for a pullback in the US dollar and provide gold with the catalyst for a rebound. That said, I still favour further gains in the US Dollar Index towards 102. If that scenario plays out, gold could first retest its recent swing lows before the anticipated bullish reversal unfolds
The October low around 3900, 100-week EMA (3776.4) and the September VPOC (3680.6) are the next major support levels should gold prices full break down. But if prices can hold above recent swing lows, resistance sits around 4200 and 4300.
Source: COMES, ICE, TradingView
This content was created by an affiliate of FOREX.com and represents the views and opinions of the author/speakers, not the views and opinions of FOREX.com, StoneX Group Inc., or its subsidiaries. The content has not been independently reviewed by FOREX.com.
Eyes on 4,000 as We Head into the Weekend Sentiment is clearly against gold in the near term, after it fell more than 1% on Thursday for its worst daily performance in eight sessions. But the major support level around 4,000 is difficult to ignore. I suspect many traders will feel the same way, which could be compounded by portfolio managers looking to hedge with gold ahead of the weekend.
The risk of a gap higher in oil prices is genuine this weekend, which could of course weigh on sentiment on Monday. But if portfolio managers do use gold as a hedge, it may hold above recent lows to some degree—or at least attempt to.
From a purely technical perspective, dips towards 4,000 could prompt at least a minor rebound. However, for any bounce to have real legs, weaker crude oil prices and a softer US dollar are likely to be required.
The short‑term Elliott Wave outlook in Gold (XAUUSD) indicates that the rally to $4204 marked the completion of wave ((B)), after which the metal turned lower in wave ((C)). The internal subdivision of wave ((C)) is unfolding as a five‑wave structure. Within this sequence, wave (1) ended at $3983.2. The subsequent rally in wave (2) developed as an expanded flat formation. From the wave (1) low, wave A advanced to $4103.7, followed by a pullback in wave B that reached $3959.3. The final leg, wave C, extended higher to $4166.07, completing wave (2) at a higher degree.
From this point, the metal resumed its decline in wave (3). Down from wave (2), wave ((i)) ended at $4099.03, while the corrective rally in wave ((ii)) concluded at $4141.05. The expectation is for Gold to extend two additional lows to complete wave ((v)) of 1. Once this sequence finishes, the market should rally in wave 2 to correct the decline from the July 22 high of wave (2). This corrective phase will precede the next bearish leg.
Gold (XAU/USD) 60-minute Elliott Wave chart
In the near term, the pivot at $4204.6 remains decisive. As long as this level holds, rallies are expected to fail within three or seven swings, reinforcing the downside bias. The structure highlights continued weakness and suggests further bearish potential in the short horizon.
Gold prices fell in Philippines on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 8,011.38 Philippine Pesos (PHP) per gram, down compared with the PHP 8,053.62 it cost on Thursday.
The price for Gold decreased to PHP 93,443.10 per tola from PHP 93,935.79 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in PHP
1 Gram
8,011.38
10 Grams
80,112.95
Tola
93,443.10
Troy Ounce
249,181.80
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Philippines by adapting international prices (USD/PHP) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices fell in Saudi Arabia on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 485.90 Saudi Riyals (SAR) per gram, down compared with the SAR 488.74 it cost on Thursday.
The price for Gold decreased to SAR 5,667.48 per tola from SAR 5,700.55 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in SAR
1 Gram
485.90
10 Grams
4,859.03
Tola
5,667.48
Troy Ounce
15,113.27
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Saudi Arabia by adapting international prices (USD/SAR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices fell in Pakistan on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 35,996.38 Pakistani Rupees (PKR) per gram, down compared with the PKR 36,175.62 it cost on Thursday.
The price for Gold decreased to PKR 419,854.70 per tola from PKR 421,945.30 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in PKR
1 Gram
35,996.38
10 Grams
359,963.30
Tola
419,854.70
Troy Ounce
1,119,613.00
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Pakistan by adapting international prices (USD/PKR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices fell in Malaysia on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 530.45 Malaysian Ringgits (MYR) per gram, down compared with the MYR 533.01 it cost on Thursday.
The price for Gold decreased to MYR 6,187.02 per tola from MYR 6,216.88 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in MYR
1 Gram
530.45
10 Grams
5,304.46
Tola
6,187.02
Troy Ounce
16,498.91
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Malaysia by adapting international prices (USD/MYR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices fell in India on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 12,504.78 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, down compared with the INR 12,566.10 it cost on Thursday.
The price for Gold decreased to INR 145,853.30 per tola from INR 146,568.50 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in INR
1 Gram
12,504.78
10 Grams
125,047.80
Tola
145,853.30
Troy Ounce
388,942.40
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Several large Chinese banks have announced plans to halt retail paper gold trading. Could this be a coordinated push by China to exert more influence and break the Western grip on gold pricing?
Last month, the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) announced it would stop offering individual trading in precious metals linked to the Shanghai Gold Exchange effective July 24. ICBC ranks as the world’s largest bank by assets.
Postal Savings Bank of China, Ping An Bank, and China Guangfa Bank have also announced plans to end paper gold trading.
Paper trading involves “futures.” These are exchange-traded contracts between two parties who agree to buy/sell a set amount of gold at a predetermined price on a specific future date. At the end of the contract, the buyer can either roll the contract over into a new one or take delivery of the physical metal.
Futures are used for hedging against price fluctuations and for speculating on market movements.
Since most futures traders never take delivery of physical gold, there is far more paper than metal. If every investor holding a buy contract demanded delivery, there wouldn’t be enough gold to go around. This opens the door to price manipulation through the movement of paper contracts.
True price discoveryThere is some speculation that the sudden exodus of Chinese banks from futures trading, coupled with the new Hong Kong-based gold clearing and settlement system, is a concerted effort by China to have a stronger hand in global gold pricing.
This would represent a seismic shift in the gold market, moving the balance of pricing power away from the paper-dominated West to the physical metal-oriented East.
London, New York, and Switzerland have served as the center of the gold trade for nearly two centuries. The spot price is driven by the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) morning and evening gold fixes.
Meanwhile, the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) is the world’s largest physical spot gold exchange. Its activity centers on the physical delivery of bullion, unlike the COMEX, which is primarily a hub for moving paper. However, despite its size, the SGE has far less influence on global pricing.
The World Gold Council picked up on an interesting trend in its H1 gold market analysis.
"Interestingly, intraday analysis suggests that the bulk of gold’s movements have been linked to activity during Asian and U.S. trading hours. Many of the pullbacks occurred during U.S. hours and, conversely, gold’s rebounds generally occurred during Asian hours."
During Asian trading hours, gold was up 12.9 percent through the first six months of the year. During North American trading hours, the yellow metal was down 15 percent. European sessions split the difference, with gold falling modestly by 1.3 percent.
This isn’t just a recent trend. We find that the gold price in Asian markets has typically outperformed the Western gold price for decades.
Analyst Ed Steer argues that this reflects Western price manipulation through the paper markets.
“This simple difference in investment strategy is all the proof needed that the world's banks and large commercial traders are actively managing the price between the a.m. and p.m. gold fixes in London -- and have been doing so since the paper market in gold first opened on 02 January 1975.”
It’s not a leap to think that the Chinese would prefer to set the gold price and strip power away from the paper traders in the West.
Risk managementOfficials say Chinese banks are exiting paper futures trading to manage risk and prevent “speculative excesses.”
“Chinese banks are tightening retail precious metals trading as a risk-control response to heightened price volatility,” State Street Investment Management gold strategist Robin Tsui told the South China Morning Post.
Joshua Rotbart operates a precious metals firm with offices in Hong Kong and Singapore. He agreed, telling the Investing News Network that we shouldn’t take the move as a sign that China is “cooling on gold.”
“What is being switched off is the speculative paper layer. This move reflects a distinction between leveraged paper trading and physical ownership.”
Paper trading increases volatility because it can be moved so easily. Rotbart said Chinese banks have become increasingly concerned about leveraged retail products given the recent price swings.
“When gold prices move sharply, leveraged paper products expose both the investor and the institution to greater risk. Discontinuing these products reduces operational and reputational risk while supporting broader financial stability.”
It also shifts the pricing emphasis away from speculative paper toward the physical market. This would arguably mean a price better reflecting the market fundamentals as opposed to speculative soothsaying.
Rotbart hinted that a more Asian-centric gold pricing regime could orient the market more toward physical gold.
“Over time, this development may encourage greater emphasis on physical ownership rather than short-term leveraged speculation. It channels demand toward the metal itself rather than reducing it.”
VRIC Media CEO Jay Martin said he doesn’t buy the official explanation.
“I think that July 24th is the day that China starts finding out what gold is actually worth.”
He pointed out that the paper market creates the illusion that there is far more gold than there really is, making it easy for paper traders to depress prices.
“If there are 10 paper claims for every real ounce of gold, the market sees 10 times more gold than actually exists.”
By removing this dynamic from the market, Martin argues we will find out “the real price of gold.”
And he thinks it’s much higher than the LBMA fix indicates.
Von Greyerz's partner Matthew Piepenburg agrees.
“I've written ad nauseam for years about the COMEX and the LBMA markets, and how they legalize price manipulation and fraud legally, and China isn't stupid. They've been watching this since 1973 ... They know that we use massive amounts of leverage to force the boot to the neck of gold and silver, so we don't have natural price discovery. Fast forward to 2026, China is saying for us to have more credibility, more trust, and more natural price discovery, we are now going to try and make the paper trade, which is an open secret that it's a lie; we're going to call the bluff on that. We're going to go focus more on physical supply and demand.”
Piepenburg called it “another move in the direction toward true price discovery.”
“What Shanghai and Hong Kong and China in the East are doing is anchoring the trade in something more valuable, actual supply and demand, less nonsense, less dishonesty, and that gives them more credibility.”
It's impossible to know the true motives of Chinese players in the gold market. However, it doesn't really matter.
Whether the Chinese government is intentionally trying to wrest control of pricing from the West or simply protecting its investors from volatility and market excess, the practical implications are the same. China is positioning itself to become a more influential player in gold pricing. The Chinese market is much more oriented toward physical bullion.
Ergo, Asian pricing will likely more strongly reflect the value of physical metal as opposed to speculation about gold on paper.
Orbex Group Limited is the holding company of Orbex Global Limited, Orbex Limited is an affiliate with Orbex Global Limited. Orbex Global Limited is authorized and regulated by Mauritius Financial Services Commission “FSC” (View License). Orbex.com is owned by Orbex Group Limited and is operated by Orbex Global Limited with registered address: Ground Floor, The Catalyst, Silicon Avenue, 40 Cybercity, 72201 Ebène, Republic of Mauritius
Risk Warning: Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss of some or all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. Orbex Global does not offer its services to residents of certain jurisdictions such as Mauritius, USA, and North Korea.
The gold market dropped early on Thursday as the overall consolidation area continues to be a major area of importance in the market. Higher rates continue to be a massive problem, though.
Gold Technical Analysis
Gold daily chart, consolidating near 4,087 above the 4,000 level. Source: TradingView The gold market has dropped fairly significantly during the early hours on Thursday as the overall consolidation area continues to play out. The $4,000 level on the bottom has been support, with the $4,200 level on the top being resistance.
Ultimately, this is a market that is likely to continue to be very noisy and choppy, but I also recognize that there are a lot of things going on outside of the actual market itself that have a certain amount of influence. This includes, of course, the higher interest rates in the United States, which, as interest rates rise, a lot of times that can cause issues for gold.
Macro Headwinds and Technical Death Cross Weigh on Gold And the energy shock that’s being priced into the bond market has people running from anything remotely close to risk at times. The 50-day EMA broke down below the 200-day EMA a couple of weeks ago, kicking off the so-called death cross. That is a technical indicator that a lot of people will look at with suspicion, and this is typically something that longer-term traders look at as a very bearish turn of events.
Whether or not that actually plays out remains to be seen, but what does look fairly obvious at this point in time is that we have been in a range for a couple of weeks and have not been able to break out of this $200 area. This area continues to be noisy in general, and an area that short-term traders will continue to be active in, but longer-term traders will be trying to find some kind of bigger answer to bigger questions.
If you’d like to know more about how to trade gold and silver, please visit our educational area.
As we all know, the Iran war is severely restricting the flow of Crude Oil through the Strait of Hormuz.
Saudi Arabia started to send more tankers out via the Red Sea, but now, we have a completely different set of problems in the Bab al-Mandab Strait, which is driving crude even higher.
In today’s Market Outlook, let’s take a look at Forex trading on EURNZD, NZDUSD, AUDUSD, AUDNZD, AUDCAD, Silver, XAGUSD, Gold, XAUUSD, WTI, and Brent Crude Oil.
So, the question for traders is, “when can we go short on WTI and Brent CFDs and watch price action fall to normal levels?”
There is no easy answer to this question, but the current US administration is under enormous pressure to end the war, but that may mean nothing in the short term.
This has caused more geopolitical uncertainty, and investors tested the $4,000 level of support on gold, with price heading up past $4,100 this week.
Silver followed gold, as it has been doing for months.
On the technical side, price action has broken through the upper trend line that we have been following for months.
On the weekly charts, we see falling wedges, which are almost always bullish patterns.
But keep in mind, these are weekly charts, so this may take a long time to play out.
This morning we saw Australian Employment Figures way higher than analysts’ expectations, and look what happened.
If we follow the rules of the News Catalyst Fade, we want to trade with the trend or within the range.
We note that in almost every case, the news drove price action WITH the trade buy; we can still look for reversals on other time frames.
We will keep an eye on AUDUSD, for example, where price is at a key level of resistance.
Also on AUDNZD, we see price at a key level with an overbought stochastic oscillator.
And, on AUDCAD, we see a strong ranging market with price at an upper trend line and an overbought stochastic oscillator.
Please feel free to check all other AUD pairs.
We see that NZD has been the strongest currency this month, but we also see that this may be changing.
For example, on NZDUSD, we see a pullback through the lower trend line, but we also see a falling wedge and an oversold stochastic oscillator.
Inflation in New Zealand is not under control, so we will keep an eye on all NZD pairs.
On EURNZD, we see the pullback as well, but with price action forming a rising wedge, and we will keep an eye on this as well.
And tomorrow’s ECB Interest Rate decision, so keep an eye on these and all EUR pairs.
That’s all for now.
CFDs and FX are leveraged products, and your capital may be at risk.
USD/ZAR entered a three-day losing streak after failing to breach key technical resistance at 16.60, a solid barrier since mid-May Persistent weakness in the US dollar cross could push USD/ZAR down toward the 16.20 support zone during upcoming central bank updates High domestic interest rates, political stability under a coalition government, and strong precious metal exports have driven the rand's 6% year-to-date gain The USD/ZAR currency pair has seen a three-day decline, failing to break through the significant 16.60 resistance level that has been in place since mid-May. This is occurring even as the US dollar shows general strength against other major currencies, indicating a notable resilience from the South African rand. The rand’s performance has contributed to a year-to-date depreciation of the USD/ZAR pair by over 6%.
This dynamic invites closer examination of the underlying forces at play. What is driving the pair’s current momentum, and what broader signals does it convey about the economies involved? Looking ahead, investors must consider both near-term and medium-term prospects to inform their positioning.
What Is Driving the Rand’s Outperformance? The rand’s current strength stems from a blend of domestic political stability, appealing yield differences, and strong commodity exports. In May, South Africa’s Reserve Bank surprised markets, hiking rates for the first time in three years. After a split vote, it pushed the repo rate to 7.00%.
That wasn’t a random decision. June’s inflation hit a two-year high of 5.0%, hotter than the 4.7% economists had penciled in. Many analysts now expect a second consecutive hike this week. Higher South African rates make the rand more appealing to carry traders seeking yield, propping up the currency even with soft domestic growth.
Globally, expectations for potential interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve, influenced by softening labor market data and moderating inflation, have reduced upward pressure on the US dollar. While the dollar remains a key safe-haven asset, its recent trend has moderated, allowing currencies from emerging markets with higher yields, such as the rand, to perform better.
The Federal Reserve maintained its interest rate range at 3.50%–3.75% in its June meeting. Although the projected rate path still suggests one more increase this year, a weaker-than-expected June jobs report of only 57,000 new positions has tempered expectations of aggressive rate hikes.
Firmer gold prices also boost the rand. South Africa benefits directly from strong worldwide demand and favorable prices for precious metals, especially gold and platinum group metals. Healthy export revenues have helped shore up the national trade balance and brought in steady foreign currency.
Near-Term and Medium-Term Outlook Looking ahead, the South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) upcoming policy decision this week is a key factor in the near term. A further 25-basis-point rate increase would likely sustain rand support and keep USD/ZAR below 16.60 until the Federal Reserve’s July meeting. Any indications from the Fed signaling potential rate cuts could lead to a downward revision for USD/ZAR, potentially testing the 16.20 support level.
Over the medium term, the pair’s trajectory will depend heavily on global risk appetite and commodity demand. If South Africa successfully implements structural reforms in its energy and logistics sectors and global central banks begin to ease monetary policy, the rand may continue to appreciate.
What has driven USD/ZAR’s recent losing streak?
Strong rand performance from commodity exports, SARB policy, and moderating US dollar strength have kept the pair below 16.60 resistance.
What domestic monetary factor attracts global investors to the South African rand?
Elevated interest rates set by the South African Reserve Bank offer an attractive carry trade yield for foreign investors.
What triggered the SARB’s first rate hike in three years?
Inflation accelerated to a two-year high of 5.0% in June, prompting policymakers to hike rates to protect price stability and currency credibility.
Gold prices fell in Philippines on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 8,183.76 Philippine Pesos (PHP) per gram, down compared with the PHP 8,202.99 it cost on Wednesday.
The price for Gold decreased to PHP 95,456.16 per tola from PHP 95,678.09 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in PHP
1 Gram
8,183.76
10 Grams
81,839.94
Tola
95,456.16
Troy Ounce
254,542.80
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Philippines by adapting international prices (USD/PHP) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices remained broadly unchanged in India on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 12,809.96 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, broadly stable compared with the INR 12,820.56 it cost on Wednesday.
The price for Gold was broadly steady at INR 149,412.40 per tola from INR 149,536.50 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in INR
1 Gram
12,809.96
10 Grams
128,101.40
Tola
149,412.40
Troy Ounce
398,434.50
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold is snapping its recent recovery, struggling above $4,100 early Thursday, as both fundamental and technical factors warrant caution for buyers.
Gold reverses from two-week highsGold is extending its pullback from two-week highs of $4,166 reached on Wednesday, even as the US Dollar (USD) remains on the backfoot.
Looming Japanese intervention risks keep Greenback traders cautious amid potential downside risk to the USD/JPY pair, which could have a ‘rub-off’ effect on the buck.
Additionally, the earnings reports from the American tech titans, Alphabet and Tesla, showed robust spending plans for Artificial Intelligence (AI) infrastructure, lifting chipmakers and major Asian indices. The cautious optimism is also rendering negative for the safe-haven US Dollar.
However, expectations of sooner (than later) interest rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) are back on the table, courtesy of the widening Middle East conflict-led surging Oil prices and increasing inflation fears, which continue to limit the USD downside and reinforce bearish pressure on non-yielding assets such as Gold.
Therefore, the latest leg down is sponsored by that narrative, especially after the US launched a new wave of strikes on Iran and Yemen's Houthis targeted oil tankers in the Red Sea, widening the scope of a conflict that has once again rattled global markets.
Late Wednesday, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warned that Tehran would respond in kind to any attack on its infrastructure after US President Donald Trump threatened to bomb a bridge or power plant for every ship targeted in the Strait of Hormuz.
Looking ahead, Gold remains in the eye of the storm amid escalating tensions in the Middle East and ahead of the European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy decision.
Although the ECB is widely anticipated to hold key rates this Thursday, any signs of a possibility of a September rate hike could ramp up hawkish sentiment around the central bank. This could further contribute to the retracement in Gold.
Meanwhile, Gold’s daily technical setup continues to caution buyers as they keenly await confirmation of the impending Bear Cross while momentum stays neutral.
Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart
In the daily chart, XAU/USD trades at $4,117.19, holding below the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at $4,242.58 and well under the 100-day and 200-day SMAs clustered around $4,491, which keeps the near-term bias bearish despite the latest rebound. The metal remains above the 21-day SMA at $4,071.54, suggesting some short-term demand, while the Relative Strength Index (14) near 49 points to neutral momentum rather than a decisive recovery.
Additionally, keeping buyers defensive, the 100-day SMA has crossed the 200-day SMA from above, but a confirmation on a daily candlestick closing basis is awaited to confirm a Bear Cross.
On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the 50-day SMA at $4,242.58, followed by the 100-day SMA at $4,491.02 and the 200-day SMA at $4,495.96, where a dense supply zone could cap further gains. On the downside, immediate support emerges at the 21-day SMA at $4,071.54; a daily close below this floor would likely expose the bearish trend to renewed pressure toward lower levels not yet defined by the current moving-average structure.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Gold upside capped as energy and Fed expectations stay in focusAnalysts at ING highlight that gold is "likely to remain sensitive to developments in energy markets and expectations for US monetary policy," keeping the metal vulnerable to shifts in both oil prices and the Fed outlook. They add that silver "could continue to outperform if strength in industrial metals persists alongside safe-haven demand," suggesting the white metal may benefit from both industrial and defensive flows.
Echoing the cautious tone, OCBC notes that "near term, price action may remain two-way," but stresses that "a more sustained recovery likely requires oil prices to back off, some easing in real yields and Fed tightening expectations." Until those conditions materialise, OCBC warns that "upside may remain capped" for gold.
Gold price (XAU/USD) trades in positive territory around $4,125 during the early Asian session on Thursday. The precious metal extends its recovery as ongoing geopolitical uncertainties continue to underpin safe-haven demand.
Traders are scrambling back into the yellow metal after attacks between the United States (US) and Iran are widening into a second week. US President Donald Trump on Wednesday vowed that the US will blow up an Iranian bridge or power plant, including those in the country’s capital city of Tehran every time Iran shoots at a ship in the Strait of Hormuz.
Meanwhile, Iran threatened to strike US-linked infrastructure and energy facilities across the region if Washington carries out Trump’s threat. Earlier Wednesday, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio accused Iran of not being “serious” about making an agreement with the US while emphasizing that Washington was “committed to diplomacy” in the Middle East.
“The recent rebound feels mostly flow-driven, sparked by a bit of dip-buying and sheer relief that the US$4,000-an-ounce floor held,” says Ryan McKay, senior commodity strategist at TD Securities. “However, I don’t expect this to be the start of a new structural trend. Energy prices are just starting to pick up again, and that concern will ultimately cap the upside,” McKay added.
Fed funds futures traders were pricing in a nearly 34% probability of a rate hike from the Fed this month, up from 10% a week ago. Traders were also pricing in a 78% odds of at least a 25 basis points (bps) rate increase in September, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Spot gold daily chart shows larger trend structure. Source: TradingView Resistance Converges Above the Market Since the 50-day moving average is falling closer to the swing high, it represents a stronger resistance zone as the levels converge. This would also allow for a decisive breakout above $4,203 to reclaim the 50-day moving average on the same move. Gold would need to reclaim the 50-day moving average to show further signs of strength that could lead to higher prices. It has represented an area of dynamic resistance since gold broke below it in mid-March. Therefore, a sustained move above the $4,203 swing high and the 50-day moving average would provide a more convincing confirmation that the recent bullish momentum is extending beyond a short-term rebound.
Higher Targets Await a Confirmed Reversal A higher initial upside target for gold lies near the prior trend high at $4,382, followed by the 200-day moving average near $4,497. The 200-day moving average was key dynamic support for the prior uptrend, and this first pullback to test it as support would typically be met with resistance, at least initially. That potential resistance makes the ability to reclaim the 50-day moving average even more important, as it would strengthen the case for gold to eventually challenge the higher targets.
If you’d like to know more about how to trade gold and silver, please visit our educational area.
Orbex Group Limited is the holding company of Orbex Global Limited, Orbex Limited is an affiliate with Orbex Global Limited. Orbex Global Limited is authorized and regulated by Mauritius Financial Services Commission “FSC” (View License). Orbex.com is owned by Orbex Group Limited and is operated by Orbex Global Limited with registered address: Ground Floor, The Catalyst, Silicon Avenue, 40 Cybercity, 72201 Ebène, Republic of Mauritius
Risk Warning: Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss of some or all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. Orbex Global does not offer its services to residents of certain jurisdictions such as Mauritius, USA, and North Korea.
Ultimately, the market will be paying attention to interest rates as they are rising, and typically this will work against gold. Whether or not anything has changed from a longer-term standpoint remains to be seen, but as things look right now, it seems like the market is in a bit of consolidation. The top of that consolidation is at the $4,200 level, so that will be worth watching very closely. A break above that would have traders excited to say the least.
Death Cross Signals and Support Levels We recently had the death cross when the 50-day EMA breaks down below the 200-day EMA, a signal that longer-term traders normally view as very negative.
The $4,000 level continues to be a bit of a floor, but we’ll see how that plays out. It’s more of a range based on price history down to the $3,900 level. Breaking below there would obviously have people thinking lower pricing. It would be a major breach of support.
As things stand right now, it looks like we’re just simply content to go back and forth in this range, and range-bound traders are probably living it up right now, as it is such a well-defined area. This remains a market that seems to be looking to make a bigger move, but with so much uncertainty, it is possible that traders are simply waiting for a clearer signal.
XAUUSD (the Gold) saw a lift as the yellow metal moved away from the critical 4000 support.
As the market remains volatile, with all eyes on Iran’s next move, prices look to break the 4100 level. Only a break above 4100, the top range of the current spike, might put the precious metal back on track towards 4140. Otherwise, a fall back towards the fresh support of 4000 would open the door to 3960.
USDCAD steadily climbing higher
The Canadian dollar attempts to turn around a potential fightback from the greenback.
The pair remains under pressure, as an 80-pip move higher has hit resistance after a rejection at 1.4080. The buy side is attempting to continue the drive, which saw a bounce from the 1.4000 region. A break past the current resistance at 1.4080 could see a continuation, with 1.4150 the next target for buyers. NZDUSD another higher high
The American dollar looks to fight back against most of its competitors as sentiment shifts again.
The price has been moving higher after a continuous upshift in price action for the majority of this month. 0.5820 is the latest support, and its breach would trigger a reversal of liquidation and make 0.5760 the next target. 0.5900 is fresh resistance, as an overbought RSI leads to a bearish divergence.
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Market Strategist at Orbex David Kindley is a renowned fundamental analyst with over 10 years of trading experience in the financial markets. With a keen eye for macroeconomics and a special focus on trading psychology, David is passionate about helping everyday investors make informed trading decisions through his thorough research and analysis.
ING’s commodities team notes Gold and Silver have extended gains on dip-buying and geopolitical concerns in the Middle East. They highlight Gold trading above $4,000/oz and Silver near $60/oz, supported by safe-haven flows and stronger industrial metals sentiment. ING expects Gold to stay sensitive to energy markets and US monetary policy, with Silver potentially outperforming if industrial strength persists.
Precious metals lifted by dip-buying"Gold and silver extended gains, supported by bargain hunting after recent weakness and investors continuing to assess geopolitical risks in the Middle East. The move came despite lingering concerns that higher energy prices could add to inflationary pressures, complicating the Federal Reserve's path towards interest rate cuts."
"Gold climbed back above the $4,000/oz level, while silver outperformed, trading close to $60/oz. Silver’s performance reflects not only its safe-haven appeal but also support from improving sentiment across the industrial metals complex, particularly copper."
"The rebound appears driven more by fresh buying interest following a period of consolidation rather than a material shift in the geopolitical or macroeconomic backdrop. While tensions in the Middle East remain supportive for precious metals, markets are weighing softer US economic data against the inflationary risks from higher energy costs."
"Gold is likely to remain sensitive to developments in energy markets and expectations for US monetary policy. Silver could continue to outperform if strength in industrial metals persists alongside safe-haven demand."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Gold prices rose in Philippines on Wednesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 8,196.87 Philippine Pesos (PHP) per gram, up compared with the PHP 8,098.74 it cost on Tuesday.
The price for Gold increased to PHP 95,600.64 per tola from PHP 94,462.05 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in PHP
1 Gram
8,196.87
10 Grams
81,964.21
Tola
95,600.64
Troy Ounce
254,948.50
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Philippines by adapting international prices (USD/PHP) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices rose in Saudi Arabia on Wednesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 498.23 Saudi Riyals (SAR) per gram, up compared with the SAR 492.14 it cost on Tuesday.
The price for Gold increased to SAR 5,811.27 per tola from SAR 5,740.20 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in SAR
1 Gram
498.23
10 Grams
4,982.24
Tola
5,811.27
Troy Ounce
15,496.74
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Saudi Arabia by adapting international prices (USD/SAR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices rose in Pakistan on Wednesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 36,918.19 Pakistani Rupees (PKR) per gram, up compared with the PKR 36,474.75 it cost on Tuesday.
The price for Gold increased to PKR 430,606.60 per tola from PKR 425,434.30 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in PKR
1 Gram
36,918.19
10 Grams
369,181.90
Tola
430,606.60
Troy Ounce
1,148,285.00
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Pakistan by adapting international prices (USD/PKR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold price (XAU/USD) gains ground to around $4,080 during the early Asian session on Wednesday. The precious metal rebounds as safe-haven demand intensified globally after retreating to the $4,000 psychological level in the previous session.
Renewed military tensions between the United States (US) and Iran have injected high volatility into commodities, prompting traders to rotate capital back into safe-haven yellow metal. Additionally, analysts said that the buying comes with the macro backdrop largely unchanged. “Today’s move looks more like dip-buying than a response to new headlines,” said Ewa Manthey, commodities strategist at ING.
Traders continue to weigh escalations in the US-Iran war. The US Central Command (CENTCOM) has carried out its 11th consecutive night of strikes on Iran since US President Donald Trump declared the ceasefire “over,” while Tehran’s forces have struck US military assets across the Middle East and its Houthi allies have declared a maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia.
Markets will closely monitor Middle East tensions for signs that higher energy costs could stoke inflation, putting pressure on the Federal Reserve (Fed) to tighten policy. Swap traders see low odds of the Fed raising rates at its next meeting in July after softer US inflation data, although traders have fully priced in at least one hike by the end of the year.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
The swing top at $4202.71 is inside that zone. And taking it out will break the pattern of consecutive lower lows. After this, the 50-day moving average at $4263.78 comes into focus and if tested, we may finally get to see how much conviction the bullish gold traders have.
What to Watch Gold is holding Tuesday’s bid despite oil rallying and yields pressing higher because the ceasefire proposal is keeping the diplomatic track alive. That is fragile. A tanker was already hit in the Strait of Hormuz and both sides are still striking. If the talks collapse and crude extends, the rate pressure returns and gold gives this back. If diplomacy holds and oil starts pulling back, September hike odds continue to drop and gold can keep building on the base.
The price action is developing a secondary higher bottom above long-term support. Gold is still inside a resistance zone and needs to clear the upper end with volume to open the path toward the 50-day average. That level is where the market finds out whether this recovery has real conviction or whether it is just a pause in the selling.
If you’d like to know more about how to trade gold, please visit our educational area.
Gold prices remain under pressure from elevated US bond yields, but Goldman Sachs believes robust central bank demand should prevent any sustained sell-off, providing a solid floor for the precious metal despite near-term headwinds.
The Gold price in US Dollars (XAU/USD) traded around $4,300 on Tuesday after retreating from recent highs, as stronger US economic data and higher Treasury yields weighed on investor demand.
Despite the recent pullback, Goldman Sachs remains constructive on the longer-term outlook, arguing that official sector buying continues to underpin the market.
Image: Gold price in US Dollars - 7 day chart Goldman Sachs notes that central banks purchased another 31 tonnes of gold in May, well above the long-run monthly average and consistent with the steady accumulation seen over the past three years.
"Strong central bank buying in May provides a price floor."
The bank believes official-sector demand has fundamentally changed the gold market by reducing the likelihood of deep and prolonged corrections.
"We continue to expect structurally strong central bank demand."
Goldman Sachs acknowledges that higher real interest rates could continue to generate temporary selling pressure, particularly through exchange-traded funds and speculative positioning.
"Rates pressure is likely to be temporary."
The bank argues that while higher yields have historically weighed on gold, central bank buying is now providing an increasingly important offset.
"Official sector purchases should cushion downside risks."
Image: XAU/USD 1 year chart Near-Term Gold Price Forecast: Goldman Sachs Still Sees Longer-Term Upside Goldman Sachs expects near-term volatility to persist while markets assess the outlook for US interest rates.
However, the bank believes any weakness driven by higher yields should prove temporary because central bank demand remains exceptionally strong.
"We expect continued robust official-sector buying to underpin prices."
For gold investors, Goldman Sachs argues that the current environment differs markedly from previous periods of rising yields, with central bank diversification creating a durable source of demand that should continue to support gold over the medium term.
Gold rose around 1.5% on Tuesday as fresh signals of diplomatic action to de-escalate US-Iran war cooled inflation risks and expected to ease pressure on the US central bank.
Quick change in sentiment made the yellow metal more attractive to investors, with the latest bounce from very significant $4000 support zone (contained several attacks in past one month) has so far retraced 50% of $4203/$3960 bear-leg and eased immediate downside risk.
Improving technical picture (price broke above 10 and 20 DMAs ($4050 and $4062 respectively and 14-d momentum rises into positive territory) supports the action, although recent gains are still insufficient to generate signal of direction change.
The price may extend gains if favorable fundamentals persist, with break through $4110 (Fibo 61.8%) and $4145 (Fibo 76.4%) to further strengthen near-term structure and expose upper breakpoint at $4203 (recovery top / near-term range ceiling) violation of which to generate initial reversal signal.
The information contained in this document was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed herein are in good faith, but are subject to change without notice. No liability accepted whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this document.
Gold (XAU/USD) edges higher on Tuesday as buying interest around the $4,000 psychological level supports prices, while traders assess developments in the Middle East and their potential economic fallout. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades around $4,058, up 1.27% on the day.
The United States military carried out a tenth consecutive night of strikes against Iran, while Iran’s Revolutionary Guards targeted US military assets across the region.
Despite the continued military exchanges, diplomatic efforts are underway. The Associated Press reported that Iranian officials began meeting with mediators in Pakistan on Tuesday. Reuters reported on Monday that mediators had offered Tehran a 10-day ceasefire to try to bring last month’s interim agreement back on track.
With the situation still in flux, the US Dollar (USD) remains the preferred safe-haven asset, while Oil prices hold close to their highest level in more than a month. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback's value against a basket of six major currencies, is hovering just below the 101.00 mark, little changed on the day.
Although Gold is attempting to establish a base above the $4,000 psychological level, its upside remains limited as elevated energy prices stoke inflation concerns and strengthen expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep monetary policy tighter for longer or even raise interest rates.
Higher borrowing costs reduce Gold's appeal, prompting investors to rotate toward interest-bearing assets such as government bonds.
Dollar support builds as Gulf tensions weigh on goldAnalysts at ING note that “the FX market is gradually catching up with developments in the Gulf, where tensions still appear to be escalating, and the Dollar has found broad-based support.” They highlight that US President Donald Trump has “pledged retaliation against Iran following the killing of three US service members in Jordan,” while Houthi militants are “threatening a blockade of Saudi Arabia in the Red Sea,” reinforcing the bid for the Dollar as geopolitical risks intensify.
Strategists at OCBC say Gold has "continued to consolidate around recent lows following the sharp pullback earlier this month," adding that "near term, price action may remain two-way, but a more sustained recovery likely requires oil prices to back off, some easing in real yields and Fed tightening expectations. Until then, upside may remain capped."
XAU/USD is testing the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,062. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 45 on the daily chart is below the neutral 50 level, indicating weak bullish momentum. Meanwhile, the Average Directional Index (ADX) near 39 suggests the prevailing trend remains strong despite the near-term stabilization.
On the downside, immediate support lies at the $4,000 psychological level, followed by the lower Bollinger Band at $3,948. A break below this area could expose the horizontal support at $3,800.
On the topside, a sustained move above the Bollinger midline at $4,062 could open the door toward the upper band at $4,175, followed by the $4,200 resistance level. A decisive break above $4,200 would bring the more distant $4,500 barrier into focus.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Gold price (XAU/USD) is up 1.5% to near $4,067 during the European trading session on Tuesday. The precious metal outperforms as the rally in oil prices has stalled, with investors turning confident that negotiations between the United States (US) and Iran towards peace have resumed.
In European trade, the WTI Oil price turns positive to near $82.65 after recovering early losses, but corrected sharply after registering a fresh monthly high at $84.42.
Lower oil prices ease inflation expectations and fears of interest rate hikes from central banks, a scenario that bodes well for non-yielding assets, such as Gold.
Meanwhile, a slight correction in the US Dollar due to risk-on market sentiment is also supporting the Gold price. At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.1% lower to near 100.90.
Technically, a lower US Dollar makes the Gold price a favorable risk-reward bet for investors.
On the US interest rate front, the Federal Reserve (Fed) is almost certain to leave interest rates unchanged in the policy meeting next week.
Gold technical analysis
XAU/USD trades higher at around $4,069.52, closer to the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is at $4,089.31. The precious metal attempts a breakout of the Descending Triangle formation after remaining sideways for almost a month.
Momentum remains subdued with the 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering around 45 and signaling a lack of bullish conviction.
On the downside, immediate support is seen around the recent break-price area near $4,043, before the rising trend-line floor at $3,941.63. On the topside, the 20-period EMA at $4,089.31 is the first meaningful barrier that gold must reclaim to ease near-term downside pressure and open the way for a more constructive recovery towards the July 6 high around $4,200.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Market outlook: Gold, crypto and US indices test important breakout levels At the time of this market review, precious metals and major cryptocurrencies were producing some of the clearest bullish signals. US stock indices were also recovering, although several important resistance levels still stood between a rebound and a more convincing bullish continuation.
Can the US stock index recovery continue?S&P 500 futures recovered from support and turned higher. A sustained move above the previous high near 7,550 could open a path toward 7,600. Another rejection from 7,550, however, would leave the recovery vulnerable.
The Dow Jones also recovered after briefly trading below support. For the Dow Jones cash index, 52,150 is the main bullish confirmation level. Acceptance above it would suggest that buyers are regaining control.
Educational insight: A market touching resistance is not the same as breaking it. Acceptance generally means price remains above the level for a meaningful period and successfully defends it during a pullback.
Are gold and silver still bullish?Gold has broken above an important resistance structure extending from its April high. The 4,040-4,045 area could now act as support if price returns to test it.
Holding above that zone would preserve the bullish structure. Sustained trade back below it would warn that the breakout may have failed, particularly if buyers cannot quickly reclaim the area.
Silver also defended major longer-term support before turning higher.
Two additional metals are approaching important confirmation levels:
Platinum: A sustained move above approximately $1,710 would strengthen the case for a larger advance. Palladium: Buyers need to clear approximately $1,375 before the broader outlook becomes more convincingly bullish. A useful concept here is the support-resistance flip. When price breaks above resistance, traders often watch whether the same area becomes support during the next pullback. If it does, the breakout gains credibility. If it does not, the move may have been a temporary overshoot.
What levels matter for Bitcoin and Ethereum?Ethereum has cleared an important longer-term resistance area, placing approximately $2,150 on the map as the next potential upside objective.
Bitcoin also looks constructive after defending major support near $57,000. With price recently around $65,500, the $64,000 area becomes an important short-term reference:
Holding above $64,000 supports bullish continuation. Sustained trade below $64,000 would weaken the breakout. A failed breakdown followed by a quick recovery above $64,000 could show that buyers are still active. Can crude oil break through resistance?Crude oil has recovered toward possible resistance near $90, while Brent crude faces a comparable test around $95.
Acceptance above these areas would improve the bullish outlook. Rejection, especially after only a brief move through resistance, could lead to another pullback.
Round numbers such as $90 and $95 often attract additional activity because traders use them for entries, exits and option positioning. That does not make them automatic turning points, but it can increase volatility around the initial test.
Why does cocoa remain vulnerable?Cocoa is one of the clearer bearish exceptions in this market review. Price rejected overhead resistance and could revisit the $5,000 area. A temporary move below that level is also possible if selling pressure accelerates.
The important distinction is whether cocoa merely touches $5,000 or begins spending time below it. A quick recovery could indicate that sellers failed to establish control, while sustained trade underneath would reinforce the bearish case.
These levels may refer to different instruments, including futures, cash indices and spot markets. Prices can vary between platforms, contracts and CFDs, so readers should confirm the corresponding levels on the instrument they trade. This analysis is educational and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell.
Gold prices rose in Malaysia on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 531.49 Malaysian Ringgits (MYR) per gram, up compared with the MYR 526.67 it cost on Monday.
The price for Gold increased to MYR 6,199.51 per tola from MYR 6,142.99 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in MYR
1 Gram
531.49
10 Grams
5,315.17
Tola
6,199.51
Troy Ounce
16,531.32
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Malaysia by adapting international prices (USD/MYR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices rose in India on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 12,529.09 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, up compared with the INR 12,413.91 it cost on Monday.
The price for Gold increased to INR 146,136.90 per tola from INR 144,793.40 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in INR
1 Gram
12,529.09
10 Grams
125,290.90
Tola
146,136.90
Troy Ounce
389,698.70
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices rose in Pakistan on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 36,200.27 Pakistani Rupees (PKR) per gram, up compared with the PKR 35,863.88 it cost on Monday.
The price for Gold increased to PKR 422,232.90 per tola from PKR 418,309.20 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in PKR
1 Gram
36,200.27
10 Grams
362,002.70
Tola
422,232.90
Troy Ounce
1,125,954.00
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Pakistan by adapting international prices (USD/PKR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices rose in United Arab Emirates on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 477.72 United Arab Emirates Dirhams (AED) per gram, up compared with the AED 473.25 it cost on Monday.
The price for Gold increased to AED 5,572.05 per tola from AED 5,519.84 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in AED
1 Gram
477.72
10 Grams
4,777.21
Tola
5,572.05
Troy Ounce
14,858.75
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in United Arab Emirates by adapting international prices (USD/AED) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices rose in Philippines on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 8,037.94 Philippine Pesos (PHP) per gram, up compared with the PHP 7,955.80 it cost on Monday.
The price for Gold increased to PHP 93,753.77 per tola from PHP 92,794.92 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in PHP
1 Gram
8,037.94
10 Grams
80,382.97
Tola
93,753.77
Troy Ounce
250,009.00
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Philippines by adapting international prices (USD/PHP) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices rose in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 488.82 Saudi Riyals (SAR) per gram, up compared with the SAR 483.88 it cost on Monday.
The price for Gold increased to SAR 5,701.47 per tola from SAR 5,643.84 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in SAR
1 Gram
488.82
10 Grams
4,888.16
Tola
5,701.47
Troy Ounce
15,204.13
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Saudi Arabia by adapting international prices (USD/SAR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold Talking Points: While rate cuts amidst high inflation drove a massive breakout in gold back in 2024 the possibility of inflation-fueled rate hikes has driven a 28% pullback in the metal. The $4k level was initially taken-out last October as rate cuts fueled the rally but that price has become a massive spot of contention with buyers stepping in on tests below over the past month.
It’s been a brutal four-month stretch for Gold and that statement really can be spanned back to six months, as it was January 29th when the metal had set its current all-time-high just below $5600/oz. The initial pullback from that move was violent, with prices testing just above the $4400 handle a few days later, but that move was bid as late-stage buyers posed a bounce, and that move inevitably topped out at a lower-high of $5400/oz in early-March.
Since then, sellers have very much been in-charge with lower-lows and lower-highs, but over the past month they’ve largely been stalled as we’ve seen continued buying interest upon tests below the $4k level.
Gold Weekly Chart Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview Gold: All About $4k On the initial approach towards the $4k level back in March, buyers stepped in about $100 before the big figure could come into play. That bounce, like the bounce from the $5600 reversal, was faded by sellers, leaving another lower-high on the chart. In the four months since, buyers have continued to show demand around the $4k level although that’s been slipping of late.
As to where sellers have been showing more aggression, we have lower-highs at both $4200 and $4100 and that sets up for some important context as the $4k support test from the weekly chart has continued, as each of those prices represent waypoints that buyers will need to take out to exhibit greater control of the trend in Gold.
Gold Four-Hour Price Chart Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview Gold Strategy Moving Forward Last week saw two tests and failures at $4100 following below expected inflation data out of the US, and this further indicates that sellers are using bounces to build positions in the metal. When that sees initial signs of change, then we can begin to plot for bigger picture bullish themes, with that price and $4200 both representing important spots on the chart with which sellers have so far exhibited control.
Outside of that, sellers have an open door to make a move as the daily chart can be argued as a descending triangle formation, which is a bearish continuation pattern marked by horizontal support to go along with lower-highs. The logic being that successive bounces from that horizontal support are bringing less and less buying activity, and a persistent effort from sellers can, eventually, play through to a downside break of that important line-in-the-sand.
In that bearish scenario, spots of prior resistance-turned-support stand out, just below both $3900 and $3800, with the levels specifically plotted at $3895 and $3791.
Gold Daily Chart Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview --- written by James Stanley, Senior Market Analyst, Global Macro
The gold market has bounced a bit during the early part of the trading session on Monday, as we continue to see the death cross loom large. At this point in time, the market still watches several things at once.
Gold Technical Analysis
Gold is consolidating just above $4,000, below both EMAs, after retreating from its highs. Source: TradingView. The gold market has bounced a bit during the early part of the trading session on Monday, as the $4,000 level is psychologically and structurally important at the moment. Buyers come back in despite the fact that interest rates have crept up a little bit higher during the trading session in the United States, but nothing major. The $4,000 level, I think, is a scene that a lot of people are watching very closely. It makes a lot of sense, and it is good for headlines.
We have had the Death Cross recently, where the 50-day EMA breaks down below the 200-day EMA, but that makes for good headlines. This is a situation that sometimes ends up being a bit late, so I always keep that in mind as well.
Geopolitical Drivers and Downside Risks The market right now is more or less paying close attention to what’s going on in the Middle East and trying to discern whether or not traders are going to continue to see this as an area that matters. This is a market that has a lot of noise, and I don’t see that changing in the current environment.
If the market were to break down below the $3,900 level, it would be a breach of a fresh new low, and history suggests that the next potential market memory spot is somewhere near the $3,500 level. If the US dollar continues to strengthen, that very well could be the case, but do keep in mind that both can rise. It doesn’t have to be a situation where a higher dollar means lower gold.
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GBP/USD Rises as Markets Await Burnham's First Cabinet GBP/USD is edging higher on Monday, adding to last week’s gains as Andy Burnham prepares to replace Keir Starmer as UK Prime Minister.
Investors will be watching today's Cabinet announcement and Burnham's first major speech for clues on the new government's fiscal priorities.
Particular attention will be on whether Shabana Mahmood is confirmed as Chancellor. She is viewed by markets as a centrist, and her appointment would reassure investors that Burnham is not looking to ramp up spending or pursue the more expansionary fiscal policies some had feared.
Even so, uncertainty remains over Burnham's broader economic agenda. Fiscal credibility is likely to remain central to market sentiment, helping to keep gilt yields contained and providing support for sterling.
Alongside domestic politics, this is a busy week for UK economic data, with labour market figures due on Tuesday, inflation on Wednesday and retail sales on Friday.
The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.9%, while CPI inflation is forecast to ease to 2.4% from 2.8%, which could lower BoE rate hike expectations.
However, any improvement in inflation may prove temporary. Oil prices have continued to rise following renewed U.S.-Iran hostilities, increasing the risk that higher energy costs feed through into inflation over the coming months.
A softer-than-expected inflation reading could weigh on sterling in the near term, although stronger retail sales—supported by warmer weather and the FIFA World Cup—could provide some offset.
Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar remains under pressure following softer-than-expected CPI and PPI data earlier this month. However, rising oil prices could revive inflation concerns, supporting Treasury yields, Federal Reserve rate expectations and safe-haven demand for the dollar.
GBP/USD Forecast – Technical Analysis
GBP/USD has recovered from the 1.3200 support zone, rising above the 200-day EMA to a high of 1.3550 before pulling back below the former trendline support, which has now become resistance.
Buyers will need to reclaim 1.3485, where horizontal resistance coincides with the falling trendline. A move above this level would bring 1.3550 back into focus before exposing the 1.3600 psychological level.
Failure to reclaim 1.3485 could see the pair retest the 200-day SMA around 1.3390.
Below there, 1.3340 becomes the next key support level, with a break exposing the 1.3200 support zone.
Gold Holds Near Two-Week Low as Higher Oil Prices Revive Inflation Concerns Gold is little changed on Monday as investors assess the impact of escalating Middle East tensions, which continue to push oil prices higher and strengthen the case for the Federal Reserve to maintain a hawkish policy stance.
The precious metal fell 2.5% last week and is broadly unchanged so far in July after declining for four consecutive months, losing almost 25% over that period.
The outlook remains challenging following last week's 15% surge in oil prices, with crude extending gains at the start of this week as U.S. forces carry out strikes against Iran for a ninth consecutive day and concerns persist over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
As long as the conflict continues to support higher energy prices, investors are likely to remain concerned that inflation could prove more persistent, delaying any shift towards easier Federal Reserve policy.
That backdrop is weighing on non-yielding assets such as gold.
Cleveland Federal Reserve President Beth Hammack was the latest policymaker to suggest that further interest rate increases may still be required if inflation fails to ease sufficiently.
Markets are now pricing an 82% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike by December, up from 73% a week ago, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
One supportive factor for gold has been continued central bank buying.
Purchases by the People's Bank of China accelerated in June, marking the largest monthly increase in three years and extending its buying streak to 20 consecutive months.
For now, the $4,000 level continues to provide support.
With little major U.S. economic data due this week ahead of next week's Federal Reserve meeting, traders are likely to remain focused on developments in the Middle East, oil prices and their implications for inflation.
Gold Forecast – Technical Analysis
Gold has broken below its symmetrical triangle pattern and the 200-day EMA, falling to a low of 3,940.
The price remains below the falling trendline as well as both the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, reinforcing the bearish technical picture. The 50-day EMA has also crossed below the 200-day EMA, generating a bearish crossover signal.
A break below 3,940 would expose 3,800, followed by 3,700.
To improve the outlook, buyers would first need to reclaim 4,100 before targeting 4,200, where the falling trendline and the July high converge.
A move above this resistance would expose the 200-day EMA around 4,310, followed by the June swing high near 4,370.
Only a sustained break above those levels would bring 4,500 back into focus.
Gold prices remained broadly unchanged in United Arab Emirates on Monday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 474.81 United Arab Emirates Dirhams (AED) per gram, broadly stable compared with the AED 474.54 it cost on Friday.
The price for Gold was broadly steady at AED 5,538.14 per tola from AED 5,534.89 per tola on friday.
Unit measure
Gold Price in AED
1 Gram
474.81
10 Grams
4,748.14
Tola
5,538.14
Troy Ounce
14,768.37
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in United Arab Emirates by adapting international prices (USD/AED) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices remained broadly unchanged in India on Monday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 12,475.40 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, broadly stable compared with the INR 12,463.91 it cost on Friday.
The price for Gold was broadly steady at INR 145,510.50 per tola from INR 145,376.60 per tola on Friday.
Unit measure
Gold Price in INR
1 Gram
12,475.40
10 Grams
124,753.90
Tola
145,510.50
Troy Ounce
388,037.30
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices rose in Pakistan on Monday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 35,945.31 Pakistani Rupees (PKR) per gram, up compared with the PKR 35,906.22 it cost on Friday.
The price for Gold increased to PKR 419,258.50 per tola from PKR 418,803.20 per tola on friday.
Unit measure
Gold Price in PKR
1 Gram
35,945.31
10 Grams
359,453.10
Tola
419,258.50
Troy Ounce
1,118,025.00
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Pakistan by adapting international prices (USD/PKR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
