Track market-moving stories before they get noisy

Gold (XAU/USD) maintains a bullish bias around $4,400, supported by a weaker US Dollar (USD) and fading expectations of further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve (Fed). However, geopolitical risks and tensions in energy prices continue to fuel inflation concerns, limiting the precious metal’s upside for now.

In the four-hour chart below, XAU/USD holds a constructive near-term bias as it trades comfortably above the 100-period simple moving average (SMA) at $4,205.68 and the 200-period SMA at $4,142.35, keeping the broader uptrend intact. The nearby horizontal support at $4,365.00 underpins the latest consolidation, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 56.32 has eased out of overbought territory and now points to moderately positive, but not stretched, momentum.

On the downside, initial support is seen at the recent floor around $4,365.00, with deeper demand emerging at the 100-period SMA near $4,205.68 and then the 200-period SMA around $4,142.35, where the broader bullish structure would be expected to reassert if tested. On the topside, a break above the horizontal resistance at $4,450.00 would open the way for renewed gains, as the absence of closer overhead technical barriers suggests that a clear move through this cap could accelerate bullish pressure.

In the one-hour chart below, XAU/USD is also holding a constructive near-term bias as price remains above the 100-period simple moving average (SMA) at $4,382.90 and the 200-period SMA at $4,324.87. This positioning suggests dips are still being bought, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 56 keeps a mildly bullish tone without yet signaling overbought conditions.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Gold (XAU/USD) is holding its recovery as weaker US economic signals support the current outlook. Softer retail sales, weaker consumer confidence, and easing inflation signals have reduced expectations for tighter Federal Reserve policy and limited support for the US Dollar. At the same time, tensions in the Middle East are supporting demand for defensive assets. These factors are helping gold maintain its strength and could support further gains.

Gold holds momentum as weaker US data supports recoveryGold is holding near the $4,400 area after extending its recovery from lower levels. The precious metal continues to find support from weaker US economic signals and lower expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike. US retail sales fell 0.6% in July, marking the first decline in nine months. Core retail sales also declined. The data pointed to softer consumer spending and reduced expectations that the Fed will tighten policy in September. Recent inflation data also showed some moderation. These developments have reduced support for the US Dollar and helped gold maintain its recovery.

Consumer confidence added another sign of weakness. The University of Michigan preliminary Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 51.0 in August from 55.2 in July. Markets had expected a reading of 54.5. The decline suggests that households have become more cautious about economic conditions. The Fed kept its target range at 3.50%–3.75% at its July meeting, although three policymakers preferred a quarter-point increase. Markets will now focus on the July meeting minutes, scheduled for release on August 19, for more information about the policy debate.

Middle East developments remain another important factor for gold. US-Iran peace efforts have made little progress, while traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely restricted. The situation became more uncertain after attacks on vessels and fresh US warnings of additional economic pressure on Iran. These developments keep geopolitical risks elevated and support demand for defensive assets.

Gold maintains strength after breaking key horizontal resistanceThe gold chart below shows multiple rounded bases developing beneath horizontal resistance. These formations reflect repeated periods of stabilization following earlier declines. As the bases developed, gold gradually built strength beneath resistance before eventually breaking above the dashed line. This move completed the pattern and opened the way for further gains.

Price has remained above the former resistance since the breakout. The latest decline brought gold back toward this area before it turned upward again. This reaction suggests that the former resistance is now providing support and remains an important part of the current setup.

Gold is now trading near $4,390 and continues to hold comfortably above the dashed line. Continued strength from the current area could support further gains, while a move below the former resistance would weaken the setup and increase the risk of another decline. For now, the reaction from support keeps the outlook positive.

Gold outlook: Weak US data and Fed expectations support gainsGold continues to hold its recovery as weaker US economic data reduces expectations for tighter Federal Reserve policy. Middle East tensions are also supporting demand for defensive assets. At the same time, gold remains above the former resistance after reacting positively from this key level. Continued strength above this area could support further gains. A move below support would weaken the current outlook and increase the risk of another decline.

Gold prices rose in United Arab Emirates on Monday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

The price for Gold stood at 519.03 United Arab Emirates Dirhams (AED) per gram, up compared with the AED 516.83 it cost on Friday.

The price for Gold increased to AED 6,053.85 per tola from AED 6,028.25 per tola on Friday.

Unit measure

Gold Price in AED

1 Gram

519.03

10 Grams

5,190.35

Tola

6,053.85

Troy Ounce

16,143.56

FXStreet calculates Gold prices in United Arab Emirates by adapting international prices (USD/AED) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.

Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

Gold (XAU/USD) builds on Friday's bounce from the $4,300 neighborhood, or a one-week low, and gains some follow-through positive traction at the start of a new week. The commodity, however, struggles to capitalize on the momentum beyond the $4,400 mark and remains below its highest level since June 5, touched on Friday, amid mixed fundamental cues.

Data released on Friday showed that US Retail Sales dropped 0.6% in July, marking the first fall in nine months and the biggest monthly decline since May last year. Adding to this, the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index dipped in August to 51 from 55.2 in the previous month. This comes on top of signs of cooling US inflation and further tempers expectations for an immediate interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve (Fed), which continues to undermine the US Dollar (USD) and lends support to the non-yielding bullion.

Investors, however, remain worried that volatile energy prices could complicate the inflation outlook and force the Fed to stick to a hawkish stance. Moreover, persistent geopolitical uncertainties help limit deeper losses for the safe-haven USD, capping the upside for the Gold price. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that the US is preparing to hit Iran with economic measures that have never been seen, as soon as this week. This, along with the US-Iran standoff, keeps the geopolitical risk premium in play and should support the buck.

In other developments, President Donald Trump said that he would soon declare the Strait of Hormuz a “territory of the United States.” Meanwhile, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said that the US must agree to Tehran's conditions in order for shipping to resume through the waterway and that there were no negotiations currently taking place. Apart from this, fresh Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries remain supportive of higher oil prices, keeping inflation fears and bets for at least one Fed rate hike in 2026 on the table.

According to CME Group's FedWatch Tool, traders are still pricing in around a 65% chance that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs by the end of this year. This, in turn, warrants some caution for USD bears and before positioning for any further appreciating move in the Gold price as traders await further cues about the Fed's future policy path. Hence, the focus will remain glued to the release of FOMC Minutes on Wednesday. Apart from this, the incoming geopolitical headlines might influence the USD and the precious metal.

XAU/USD daily chart

Technical AnalysisFrom a technical perspective, the recent repeated failures to find acceptance above the $4,400 mark, or the 50% retracement level of the April-June decline, warrant some caution for XAU/USD bulls. Moreover, the precious metal remains below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), keeping the broader tone capped despite the recent recovery.

Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 64.43 leans toward bullish momentum, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) stays in positive territory. Improving momentum indicators, however, only hint that buyers are attempting a rebound within a still bearish, resistance-heavy backdrop.

Nevertheless, sustained strength and acceptance above the $4,400 mark (50% retracement level) should allow the Gold price to test the 200-day SMA near $4,506 and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $4,509. Further barriers are seen at the 78.6% Fibo level at $4,666 and the cycle high zone at $4,865.

On the downside, initial support emerges at the 38.2% Fibo. retracement at $4,290, ahead of the 23.6% level at $4,154, while a deeper slide would expose the structural floor around the Fibonacci anchor near $3,935.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Fed FAQs

Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates.
When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money.
When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.

The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions.
The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.

In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system.
It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.

Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.

Gold price (XAU/USD) gains momentum to around $4,395 during the early Asian trading hours on Monday. The precious metal extends the rally as cooling US inflation data has dampened expectations for the US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike. 

The US Census Bureau revealed on Friday that US Retail Sales declined by 0.6% MoM in July. This figure followed a rise of 0.2% in June and came in softer than the 0.1% expected. On an annual basis, Retail Sales increased 5.0% in July versus a rise of 6.8% (revised from 6.7%).

This report added to evidence that inflationary pressure is gradually easing after last week's Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) data. This, in turn, weighs on the US Dollar (USD) and underpins the USD-denominated commodity price.  

Money markets have priced in nearly a 33.1% chance of a September Fed hike, according to the CME FedWatch tool. It’s worth noting that lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion, boosting its investment appeal. 

On the other hand, persistent tensions in the Middle East might cap the upside for the yellow metal. Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi called on the US to “accept the reality of defeat and stop indulging in delusions” after US President Donald Trump suggested that he would soon declare the Strait of Hormuz a “territory of the United States.” 

On Friday, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said that there were “no negotiations currently taking place between Tehran and Washington.” Araghchi added that the US must agree to Iran’s conditions in order for shipping to resume through the waterway.

Gold outlook stays constructive as Fed hike expectations fade and ETF demand returnsAnalysts at Commerzbank argue that the backdrop for bullion remains supportive, noting that, “as we expect the Fed not to raise interest rates, the gold price therefore still has further upside potential.” They caution that the path higher is unlikely to be smooth, pointing out that “the fact that this will not happen in a straight line is illustrated by the price fall since yesterday to USD 4,320 per troy ounce.” At the same time, Commerzbank highlights that “another positive factor for the price of gold is the renewed buying interest from ETF investors,” which they see as reinforcing the constructive medium-term outlook for the metal.

Technical Analysis: The positive tone of Gold remains intactIn the daily chart, XAU/USD holds just above the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) and comfortably over the 20-day Bollinger middle band near, keeping the near-term bias constructive while these layers of trend support remain intact. The Relative Strength Index (14) at 64.09 leans toward bullish but not yet overbought territory, suggesting buyers still have room to probe higher levels within the prevailing range.

On the topside, initial resistance is aligned with the upper Bollinger band at $4,480, where recent volatility extremes are likely to attract profit-taking. On the downside, the immediate floor is defined by the 100-day SMA at $4,385.85, with a deeper corrective cushion emerging around the Bollinger middle band at roughly $4,195; a break below that area would expose the lower band support near $3,905.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Gold FAQs

Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

The Gold price has already recovered sharply in August, but UBS's forecast path points beyond the rebound, with bullion reaching $5,000 next March and $5,200 by June. The Gold price (XAU/USD) closed the week around $4,376 after a powerful August rebound that has taken bullion back towards the upper end of its recent range.

Gold has gained 8.3% so far this month, recovering from an August low near $4,024 and reaching as high as $4,443.

UBS is looking considerably further ahead.

Its latest global forecasts put gold at $4,400 in September 2026, followed by $4,600 in December, $5,000 in March 2027 and $5,200 by June 2027.

The shape of that forecast is as important as the final number.

At current prices, UBS's September target offers little immediate upside.

The bank is effectively allowing for gold to consolidate around present levels before another leg higher develops later in the forecast period.

Image: Gold price in USD on month chart Gold has climbed almost 8% over the past month, moving from below $4,000 at the July low to around $4,376.

The heavier lifting begins towards year-end.

A move to $4,600 in December would take gold clearly above its current August trading range, while the jump to $5,000 next March would put bullion back into territory last seen during the extraordinary swings earlier in 2026.

The $5,200 June forecast is more striking still.

Gold has already traded above that level this year, reaching a 2026 high close to $5,594 in January, but much of that advance was subsequently unwound.

By June, prices had fallen below $4,000 before stabilising and beginning the latest recovery.

Gold Outlook: UBS Sees the Recovery Extending Into 2027 Image: Gold price in USD yar-to-date chart Gold remains far below its January peak despite the August recovery, illustrating how much volatility has accompanied this year's broader repricing.

That distinction matters when interpreting UBS's $5,200 call.

The forecast does not require gold to make unprecedented new highs from here.

It instead assumes that the deep correction from the first-quarter peak eventually gives way to a renewed climb back towards the upper part of this year's range.

The current price around $4,376 is only modestly above where gold began 2026, despite enormous moves in between.

The year-to-date chart has been anything but a straight-line bull market.

UBS's forecast is similarly not about an immediate surge.

September is essentially flat from here. December brings a more meaningful rise.

The stronger bullish conviction appears in 2027, when the bank sees gold breaking $5,000 again and reaching $5,200 by June.

After the volatility of 2026, that is a bullish forecast with patience built into it.

The U.S dollar debasement trade is moving back to the centre of global markets and Gold may be its clearest beneficiary. 

The Dollar Index has slipped below 100 while Treasury yields remain elevated, Washington finances enormous deficits and traders reassess America’s debt trajectory. For Gold bulls, the convergence is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore. 

“The debasement trade does not begin when the dollar collapses,” says Lars Hansen, Head of Research at The Gold & Silver Club. “It begins when traders start questioning what each future dollar will actually be worth in real terms.” 

Gold has remained resilient despite high U.S borrowing costs. Normally, elevated real yields would pressure bullion. Instead, traders are focusing on fiscal deterioration, currency dilution and policy uncertainty. 

“When Gold stays this strong against restrictive financial conditions, the message matters,” Hansen says. “Traders are looking beyond nominal rates and focusing on purchasing power of the currency itself.” 

The latest Treasury numbers sharpen that argument. The U.S posted a record $432 billion July budget deficit, taking the fiscal-year shortfall to $1.80 trillion. Even after adjusting for payment-timing distortions, July’s deficit was $333 billion, 18% greater than a year earlier. 

Net interest expenses have risen 11% this fiscal year and have officially surpassed both National Defence and Medicare spending. In other words, the U.S government now spends more money just on interest than it does to fund the entire U.S Military or to provide healthcare for seniors. 

“The danger is not simply the size of the debt,” Hansen says. “It is the rising cost of carrying it. The more revenue absorbed by interest, the stronger the pressure for lower financing costs.” 

That is where fiscal stress can become a currency story and ultimately a Gold story. 

Attempts to strengthen the yen have struggled to remove the incentive to borrow cheaply in Japan and deploy capital into higher-yielding dollar assets. The yen has already weakened again towards ¥160 despite recent US-Japan intervention. 

“Washington wants lower borrowing costs, strong Treasury demand and currency stability,” Hansen says. “Achieving all three simultaneously is becoming difficult.” 

If U.S rates eventually fall while deficits remain enormous, hard assets could become attractive. 

Gold carries no sovereign credit risk, cannot be printed to finance deficits and sits outside the banking system’s liability structure. 

Over the past 15 years, The Gold & Silver Club has built a reputation as one of the industry’s most accurate forecasters of major Gold price trends, documented across leading financial publications and institutional research reports. Its proprietary models have consistently pinpointed major turning points in Gold and Silver, earning GSC recognition among institutional investors and private wealth clients alike. 

“This is where hesitation becomes expensive,” Hansen says. 

For traders, the next technical trigger may now be as important as the macro story. A sustained break above $4,400 would reassert the uptrend just as the Dollar Index threatens deeper support below 100. Gold is already trading within striking distance of that threshold.

“If Gold clears $4,400 while the dollar keeps weakening, capital could move very quickly,” Hansen says. “By the time the breakout looks obvious, traders may already be chasing significantly higher prices.” 

The ingredients of a major repricing are falling into place: dollar weakness, fiscal deterioration and Gold sitting beneath a potentially decisive breakout. 

For traders still on the side-lines, the choice is becoming urgent. Position before the debasement trade becomes consensus. If Gold confirms its next leg higher, today’s prices may soon look like the opportunity traders wish they had taken. 

As Hansen concludes: “Markets reward conviction. Hesitation is punished.” The only question now is whether traders participate – or watch the next major Gold rally unfold without them. 

Where are prices heading next? Watch The Commodity Report now, for my latest price forecasts and predictions:

RBC's price assumptions put gold at an average $5,250 an ounce in 2027 and $5,500 in 2028, while JPMorgan sees evidence that buyers are returning after the market established support near $4,000.
The Gold price in US Dollars has begun to recover from its mid-year correction, and two bank research frameworks point to a market that is consolidating rather than ending its longer-term advance.

Latest gold market data: XAU/USD traded at $4,351.05 an ounce at 11:56 BST on 14 August 2026, down 0.17% on the day but 7.34% higher over one month.

Gold remained 6.43% lower over three months and 13.48% lower over six months, yet it was still 30.65% above its level a year earlier.

Gold price performance over one month to 14 August 2026.

RBC's Gold Standard comparable tables assume an average $4,732 for 2026, rising to $5,250 in 2027 and $5,500 in 2028.

The bank's long-term assumption is lower at $4,000, giving the forecast a pronounced medium-term peak rather than an indefinitely rising line.

From current spot, the 2027 average is roughly 21% higher and the 2028 assumption about 26% higher.

These are annual averages used in company valuation work, not year-end targets, so gold would not need to finish either year at precisely those levels.

JPMorgan sees buyers returning above $4,000
JPMorgan's volatility research supplies the market mechanism behind the upside case.

“The fundamental view remains on the upside in the long term, as we continue to see strong inflows from central banks with accelerated buying on the dip,” the bank said.

That official-sector thesis has support beyond the research note: World Gold Council data show reported central-bank reserves rising by a net 41 tonnes in May.

JPMorgan also sees a change in investor behaviour after July's narrow trading range.

“As gold prices are finding the floor at 4000 and trading within a tight 5% range over the whole of July, the first signs of buyers winning over sellers are starting to show,” it said.

Retail demand is part of that turn.

“We are starting to see retail investors warming up to gold again,” JPMorgan said, pointing to renewed call-option interest in the GLD exchange-traded fund.

Gold price performance in 2026 to 14 August.

The two banks are not making identical calls.

RBC supplies a multi-year price deck, while JPMorgan identifies positioning and volatility signals around a $4,000 support area.

Together they describe a bullish medium-term case with real drawdown risk: the long-run floor is well below RBC's projected 2028 peak, but central-bank buying and returning investor demand can keep the recovery alive before that normalisation arrives.

Exchange Rates UK Research
Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.

Market news from the European morning session - 14 August 2026

Headlines:

Dollar nudges lower on the day amid mixed market moodBitcoin loses key $64,000 level: The important support levels BTC must hold nextBOJ reportedly set for a September rate hike, eyes faster pace of tighteningGerman wholesale prices bounce back in July as energy tax cut lapsesFrench inflation accelerates again in July, core prices move up as wellSwiss economy estimated to post quarterly growth of 1.5% in the second quarterChina new bank loans contract again in July, the second time this yearMarkets:

WTI crude oil up 0.5% to $81.64NZD leads, USD lags on the dayGold up 0.3% to $4,362S&P 500 futures up 0.1%, Nasdaq futures up 0.2%US 10-year yields up 0.3 bps to 4.645%Bitcoin down 0.8% to $62,829There's not all too much in it as we get into the final stretch of the week.

The market mood is fairly mixed, with the dollar sitting lower while oil prices and bond yields are just a touch higher on the day.

There are no fresh developments on the US-Iran conflict, with the Strait of Hormuz still in de facto closure after Iran threatened more ships again - this time being UAE oil vessels.

WTI crude sits higher by 0.5% to $81.64 and looks poised to end the week with gains well over 5%. Meanwhile, bond yields also nudged a little higher early on but is now moving back down a little. 10-year yields in the US are little changed now at 4.645% with the earlier high touching 4.665%.

Even so, the dollar is seen being offered in European morning trade. It was one-way traffic with the greenback losing ground across the board. EUR/USD is up 0.3% to 1.1567 in retesting the 100-day moving average once again. Meanwhile, USD/JPY is down 0.2% to close in on the 159.00 mark on the day.

In other markets, European indices are lightly changed for the most part while US futures are holding a marginal advance on the day. There's not a whole lot in it but Wall Street will be hoping to follow up from the record close in the S&P 500 yesterday.

Besides that, gold is up 0.3% to $4,362 after erasing early losses with the fall back earlier touching a low of $4,311.

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Gold prices fell in Philippines on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

The price for Gold stood at 8,536.51 Philippine Pesos (PHP) per gram, down compared with the PHP 8,586.51 it cost on Thursday.

The price for Gold decreased to PHP 99,568.21 per tola from PHP 100,151.40 per tola a day earlier.

Unit measure

Gold Price in PHP

1 Gram

8,536.51

10 Grams

85,365.12

Tola

99,568.21

Troy Ounce

265,509.90

FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Philippines by adapting international prices (USD/PHP) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.

Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

Gold prices fell in United Arab Emirates on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

The price for Gold stood at 510.58 United Arab Emirates Dirhams (AED) per gram, down compared with the AED 513.66 it cost on Thursday.

The price for Gold decreased to AED 5,955.32 per tola from AED 5,991.25 per tola a day earlier.

Unit measure

Gold Price in AED

1 Gram

510.58

10 Grams

5,105.81

Tola

5,955.32

Troy Ounce

15,880.88

FXStreet calculates Gold prices in United Arab Emirates by adapting international prices (USD/AED) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.

Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

Gold prices fell in Malaysia on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

The price for Gold stood at 568.41 Malaysian Ringgits (MYR) per gram, down compared with the MYR 571.47 it cost on Thursday.

The price for Gold decreased to MYR 6,629.88 per tola from MYR 6,665.50 per tola a day earlier.

Unit measure

Gold Price in MYR

1 Gram

568.41

10 Grams

5,684.15

Tola

6,629.88

Troy Ounce

17,679.71

FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Malaysia by adapting international prices (USD/MYR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.

Gold FAQs

Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

Throughout July, I had been noting the repeated failed attempts from gold bears to sustain a break below 4,000. And when a level won’t budge, the market has a tendency to eventually go the other way.

Last Tuesday, August 4, I outlined a case for a breakout, arguing that price action, options pricing and futures sentiment all hinted at quiet accumulation. Maybe I got lucky with the timing, but the breakout on August 5 was spectacular, to say the least, with gold rising 5% to mark its best day since February and its second-best day in ten years.

While I suspect gold bulls have more planned, price action on Thursday shows prices have wobbled at their cycle high, hinting at the first bump in the road.

View related analysis:

Gold Price Outlook: Can Quiet Accumulation Trigger a Breakout? ASX 200 Outlook: Potential Bull Flag Forms Beneath Record Highs US Dollar Bounce Looks Vulnerable, EUR/USD Respects Resistance for Now Japanese Yen Outlook: US CPI, Intervention Risks Put USD/JPY Bulls on Notice FX Futures Positioning: US Dollar Longs Plunged, Yen Shorts Slashed Gold Wobbles, but ‘Dip’ Mentality Could Remain The daily chart shows a solid rally from 4,000 support, although resistance was met around a prior weekly VPOC (volume point of control), just below 4,500. A bearish outside day engulfed Tuesday’s small doji and Wednesday’s small bullish candle, but so far, support has held around 4,400, close to the weekly VPOC at 4,404.

A break beneath this area would bring the 200-day EMA into focus near 4,300, along with the lower end of the recent trading range. If we see bears take full control, the next level they could potentially target is around 4,200, near the recent range lows.

However, given the strength of the bullish range expansion after a prolonged period of consolidation above 4,000, my bias remains for a move towards 4,700, with 4,600 likely to provide interim resistance along the way should the rally continue. Moreover, futures and options sentiment also appears supportive of a “buy the dip” mentality among gold bulls, some of whom may be frustrated at having missed the initial burst higher.

Source: COMEX, TradingView

Gold Price Outlook: Futures Positioning and Options Signals Gold Futures (GC) Positioning | COT Report Net-long exposure has continued to trend higher to gold futures, among large speculators and managed funds managers. Recent data from the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report shows funds had a net-long exposure of 131k contracts, their most bullish level in more than six months. Large specs pushed their net-long exposure to a 6-month high just shy of 200k. While gross-longs have been trending gradually higher, it is the collapse of short bets that helped propel net-longs in recent weeks. And I suspect that will continue to be a supporting feature for higher gold prices, with a lack of bearish interest for now.

This content was created by an affiliate of FOREX.com and represents the views and opinions of the author/speakers, not the views and opinions of FOREX.com, StoneX Group Inc., or its subsidiaries. The content has not been independently reviewed by FOREX.com.

Gold Options Positioning Signals Cautious Bullishness Two of the three risk reversals I track had flipped into positive territory last week, for the first time since mid-April. This showed that demand for calls outnumbers demand for puts. But we also saw the risk reversals accelerate from low levels ahead of the breakout to show options traders quickly moving away from downside protection relative to bullish bets. The fact it has dipped to negative territory this week is not enough to call for a major swing high in my books, but it does back up the potential for a minor pullback over the near term

Source: ICE, TradingView

View the full economic calendar

-- Written by Matt Simpson

Follow Matt on Twitter @cLeverEdge

Gold futures rally to $4,447, pushing above both EMAs after clearing the $4,000–$4,300 consolidation zone. Source: TradingView The gold market initially tried to rally during the trading session on Thursday, but it is struggling a little bit. As I’ve been saying for a few days now, sooner or later gravity comes back into the picture, and that might be what we’re seeing here: a simple return to a little bit of normalcy after a shot higher. Whether or not gold pulls back significantly remains to be seen, but one could see a move to the 200-day EMA and still think that is relatively normal.

To the upside, we have the $4,500 level, which has offered a bit of resistance recently, and then we have the $4,600 level, which has been structurally important. I’ll be watching both of those levels for potential targets for bulls. If we pull back from here, a bounce from the 200-day EMA would be a significant technical setup that will, more likely than not, capture the attention of a lot of traders as it is such a widely followed indicator.

Gold price edged lower from new 9-week high in early Thursday trading as positive impact from lower inflation in July started to fade while investors focus on US Producer Price Index data (due later today) which would provide more details about the Fed’s policy outlook.

Recent strong acceleration higher started to show signs of fatigue after a triple failure to register daily close above cracked Fibo barrier at $4416 (50% retracement of $4889/$3942 bear-leg), with stretched daily studies contributing to scenario.

On the other hand, near-term action holds above the top of daily Ichimoku cloud ($4358) for the third consecutive day that keeps bulls intact for renewed attacks.

Firm break of $4416 pivot to generate initial signal of bullish continuation and expose next targets at $4501 (200DMA) and $4527 (Fibo 61.8%).

Conversely, violation of cloud top would risk further easing, with extended dips to find firm ground at $4260 zone (Fibo 38.2% of $3960/$4449 / rising 10DMA) to mark a heathy correction before bulls regain control.

US PPI is expected to ease significantly in July that may provide fresh impetus to the metal’s price (US July PPI 4.9% f/c vs June 5.5%; Core July 4.2% f/c vs June 4.7%) on release at or below expectations.

Res: 4416; 4449; 4501; 4502
Sup: 4358; 4304; 4260; 4203

Windsor Brokers Ltdhttp://www.windsorbrokers.com/

The information contained in this document was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed herein are in good faith, but are subject to change without notice. No liability accepted whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this document.

TD Securities’ Bart Melek notes Gold extended gains after the July Consumer Price Index (CPI) matched expectations, reinforcing a dovish narrative around Fed Chair Warsh. With prices near $4,434/oz and resistance just below $4,500/oz, Melek sees Gold staying near the upper end of a higher trading range. However, he argues it is still premature to call for a breakout toward $5,000/oz.

Fed path keeps gold contained"With upside momentum driving prices to $4,434/oz and CTA buy triggers sitting near $4,468/ oz, the yellow metal may soon challenge resistance just below $4,500/oz."

"A decisive move above that level would likely require stronger confirmation that the Fed will not raise rates this year."

"As a result, gold will likely remain near the upper end of its current trading range, which has shifted meaningfully higher since July, though it is still too early to call for a breakout toward $5,000/oz."

"Until then, if it happens at all, the gold market should stay in the upper bound of the recent higher trading range."

"If no new inflation pressures materialize, gold is off to the races and a 5-handle is a very real possibility."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

Gold prices fell in Saudi Arabia on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

The price for Gold stood at 530.57 Saudi Riyals (SAR) per gram, down compared with the SAR 532.22 it cost on Wednesday.

The price for Gold decreased to SAR 6,188.48 per tola from SAR 6,207.66 per tola a day earlier.

Unit measure

Gold Price in SAR

1 Gram

530.57

10 Grams

5,305.73

Tola

6,188.48

Troy Ounce

16,503.55

FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Saudi Arabia by adapting international prices (USD/SAR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.

Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

Gold prices fell in Pakistan on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

The price for Gold stood at 39,279.89 Pakistani Rupees (PKR) per gram, down compared with the PKR 39,392.88 it cost on Wednesday.

The price for Gold decreased to PKR 458,160.80 per tola from PKR 459,470.80 per tola a day earlier.

Unit measure

Gold Price in PKR

1 Gram

39,279.89

10 Grams

392,806.90

Tola

458,160.80

Troy Ounce

1,221,742.00

FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Pakistan by adapting international prices (USD/PKR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.

Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

Gold prices fell in India on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

The price for Gold stood at 13,485.65 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, down compared with the INR 13,516.60 it cost on Wednesday.

The price for Gold decreased to INR 157,303.50 per tola from INR 157,655.00 per tola a day earlier.

Unit measure

Gold Price in INR

1 Gram

13,485.65

10 Grams

134,862.00

Tola

157,303.50

Troy Ounce

419,454.80

FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.

Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

, /PRNewswire/ -- Mayfair Gold Corp. ("Mayfair", "Mayfair Gold", or the "Company") (TSXV: MFG) (NYSE American: MINE) is pleased to report its operating and financial results for the quarter ended June 30, 2026. The full version of the financial statements and accompanying management's discussion and analysis can be viewed on the Company's website at www.mayfairgold.ca or under the Company's profiles on SEDAR+ at www.sedarplus.ca and EDGAR at www.sec.gov. For a detailed update on project work completed during the quarter, refer to the news release issued July 23, 2026 "Mayfair Gold Provides Q2 Update on Fenn-Gib Project Advancement and Derisking Activities".

About Mayfair Gold

Mayfair Gold is a Canadian development-stage gold company focused on advancing the 100% controlled Fenn-Gib Project in the Timmins region of Northern Ontario. Fenn-Gib hosts a 4.3 million ounce indicated mineral resource of gold (181.3Mt at an average grade of 0.74 g/t) and the expected strategy outlined in the 2026 Pre-Feasibility Study (the "PFS")1 is to develop the project under the provincial permitting process, targeting the higher-grade 1 million ounce probable mineral reserve (25.1Mt at an average grade of 1.29g/t) sitting near-surface, highlighting the optionality and scalability provided by the deposit.  The PFS also outlines the potential to develop Fenn-Gib into a new Canadian gold producer, with initial development capital of C$450 million, a base-case payback period of 2.7 years, and cumulative free cash flow2 of US$896 million over the first six years of production based on a US$3,100/oz gold price. The Company is advancing permitting activities, detailed engineering, and stakeholder engagement with the goal of starting construction in 2028 with initial production in 2030. The company also remains focused on exploration around the broader land package with the goal of enhancing mineral resource scale and growth opportunities.

The content of this news release has been reviewed on behalf of the Company and approved by Drew Anwyll, P.Eng., Chief Executive Officer of Mayfair, a QP as defined in NI 43-101.

___________________________

1 Please refer to the technical report entitled "Fenn-Gib Gold Project NI 43-101 Technical Report and pre-Feasibility Study" dated effective December 19, 2025 available on SEDAR+ at www.sedarplus.ca for further details.

2 Free cash flow does not have a standardized meaning and may not be comparable to similar measures presented by other issuers, referred to as non-GAAP financial measures. As the Corporation is not in production, the Corporation does not have historical non-GAAP financial measures nor historical comparable measures under IFRS, and therefore the foregoing prospective non-GAAP financial measures may not be reconciled to the nearest comparable measures under IFRS.

Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking Information

This news release contains certain forward-looking information within the meaning of applicable Canadian securities legislation and forward-looking statements within the meaning of applicable United States securities legislation (collectively, "forward-looking information"). The use of the words "will" and "expected" and similar expressions is intended to identify forward-looking information. Forward-looking information in this news release includes, but is not limited to, the expected strategy to develop the project under the provincial permitting process, targeting the higher-grade 1-million-ounce mineral reserve, building and operating the Fenn-Gib Project, and all disclosure related to the PFS, including expected commencement of construction and production. Although Mayfair Gold believes that the expectations reflected in such forward-looking information is reasonable, readers are cautioned that actual results may vary from the forward-looking information. The Company has based the forward-looking information on the Company's current expectations and assumptions about future events. This information also involves known and unknown risks, uncertainties, and other factors that may cause actual results or events to differ materially from those anticipated in such forward-looking information, including the risks, uncertainties, and other factors identified in the annual information form and Form 40-F of the Company for the year ended December 31, 2025, available under the Company's profiles on SEDAR+ at www.sedarplus.ca and EDGAR at www.sec.gov, respectively. Furthermore, the forward-looking information contained in this news release is as at the date of this news release, and Mayfair does not undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any of this forward-looking information except as may be required by applicable securities laws. 

Neither the TSX Venture Exchange ("TSXV") nor its Regulation Services Provider (as that term is defined in the policies of the TSXV) accepts responsibility for the adequacy or accuracy of this news release.

SOURCE Mayfair Gold Corp.

July inflation landed exactly where the consensus had it, on all four lines of the release, and Gold responded by adding around 1% and holding fast near $4,400/ounce, trading at its highest since early June. A print that surprises nobody is not supposed to move a metal that far. This one did, because the composition underneath the headline handed a hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) the cover to wait, and the rate market cut the odds of a September hike from a coin flip to a 38% tail inside the hour.

What the same curve says about October and December is the problem. The hike did not come off the calendar. It moved by one meeting, and Gold has repriced as though it were cancelled.

The print a hawkish Fed can look throughThe Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.1% in July against a 0.1% consensus, after falling 0.4% in June, and 3.4% over the year against 3.4% expected, down from 3.5%. Core, stripping food and energy, rose 0.2% against 0.2% expected and 2.5% over the year against the same, down from 2.6% and the softest core reading since January. Four lines, four bullseyes.

The interesting part sits in the detail tables. Shelter rose 0.1% on the month and accounted for roughly two-thirds of the entire all-items increase, which is a very quiet way to build a headline. Energy fell 1.5% on the month with gasoline down 2.9%. Yet energy is still 14.7% higher over the year and gasoline 24.6% higher, and airline fares, the cleanest passthrough from jet fuel to the consumer basket, rose 2.2% on the month and 25.5% over the year.

Read those together and the war is sitting almost entirely in the headline index while the core keeps grinding lower. That is the single most convenient shape a conflict-driven inflation impulse can take for a central bank that does not want to tighten into a supply shock. It lets policy treat the barrel as relative prices rather than inflation, look through the energy line, and point at a 2.5% core as evidence that the underlying trend is intact.

Gold understood that immediately and correctly. The metal opened near $4,371, dipped to $4,362 ahead of the release, then ran to $4,441 after it and holds around $4,434. Buying a soft core print is the right trade on the day.

The hike moved by one meeting, not off the calendarHere is where the tape and the curve part company.

The September 16 meeting now prices at 61.86% for a hold in the current 3.50%-3.75% band against 38.14% for a quarter-point move. Two days ago, that same meeting was a coin flip. So far, so consistent with a metal rallying.

Run the curve forward and the picture inverts. The October 28 meeting carries 62.50% for the 3.75%-4.00% band, meaning the market is already better than three-in-five that the hike has happened by Halloween. By December 9, that band carries 95.28%, with a further 4.72% sitting above it. On the conditional distribution, the December tail is fatter still, 23.9% for two hikes and 3.9% for three.

That is not a market that has abandoned tightening. It is a market that has slid one hike five weeks to the right and left the destination almost exactly where it was. The terminal expectation is barely disturbed. What changed is the timing, and only the timing.

For a non-yielding asset, the distinction is close to everything. Gold funds itself against real rates, and a hike deferred by one meeting costs a holder roughly five weeks of carry differential. Five weeks of carry is worth a few dollars an ounce, not a hundred and fifty. The metal has taken a timing adjustment and priced it as a change of regime.

The chart has run ahead of the repricingThe mechanical picture makes the same case without needing a single rate probability.

Gold spent the summer beneath its 200-day exponential moving average and reclaimed it only in the past few sessions. That average sits near $4,290. The 50-day sits near $4,220, roughly $70 below the 200-day, which means the shorter average still trades under the longer one and the alignment that produced the June and July decline has not reversed. It has simply been jumped.

Price now trades about 3.4% above the 200-day and better than 5% above the 50-day, having travelled almost 12.7% from the July low near $3,941 in about three weeks. Daily Stoch RSI is above 81 and pressed into the overbought band. A market that reclaims a long moving average usually does it, backs and fills, and lets the shorter average catch up. This one has gone straight through and kept going.

None of that makes the direction wrong. Moving averages do not cap anything, and a genuine regime change ignores them for months at a time. It does mean the move has borrowed heavily from the future, on a rate repricing that turns out to be a deferral, at a momentum reading that historically precedes consolidation rather than acceleration.

Two dates decide itThe near-term test arrives quickly, and both legs of it land inside 48 hours.

Producer prices come Thursday, with the headline expected at 0.2% on the month and 4.9% over the year against 5.5%, and the core measure at 0.3% and 4.2% against 4.7%. A soft PPI corroborates the CPI, pushes the September odds lower still, and gives the current Gold level a fundamental leg it presently lacks. A firm one, particularly in the core, tells the market the July CPI was an energy artefact and pulls September back toward the coin flip it was on Monday. Two Fed speakers follow the print within half an hour, one of them among the three who dissented for a quarter point at the July meeting, which is the first chance anyone on the committee has to react to the disinflation in public.

Friday brings retail sales and the preliminary Michigan survey, where the one-year inflation expectation sits at 4.2% and the five-year at 3.3%. Consumer expectations running that far above target are the strongest argument the hawks have, and a further rise there would be the most direct threat to the September pause the market has just bought.

The framework from hereThe bias is for consolidation rather than continuation, and the levels are unusually clean.

$4,400 is the pivot in play, and holding it on a daily basis keeps the reclaim credible. Losing it turns attention to $4,300, which is effectively the 200-day and the line that decides whether the past three weeks were a regime change or an overshoot. Beneath that, $4,200 sits on the 50-day and is where the overbid thesis would be fully expressed. The July floor near $4,000 is the deeper reference and is not in play absent a hawkish PPI surprise.

To the upside, $4,500 is the level that matters, because it is where the June breakdown began and where trapped supply from that decline is likeliest to sit. A daily close above $4,500 invalidates the overbid reading outright and says the market is pricing something larger than a five-week deferral, most plausibly a view that the tightening cycle is over rather than paused.

Position for the gap between timing and destination. The tape has priced a September pause. The curve has priced an October or December hike at better than 95% by year-end. Both cannot be worth $4,434, and the reconciliation runs through Thursday's producer prices.

Key Points:The mid-year correction is over: Gold, silver, platinum, and miners all formed major lows, setting the stage for the next leg of the precious metals bull market.The biggest gains may still be ahead: We expect much higher prices into 2030–2031, with the most explosive phase of the bull market likely to occur during its final 12 months.Miners are poised to take the lead: After lagging during the first half of the bull market, gold and silver miners are showing signs of a major shift, with new all-time highs potentially arriving well before the metals themselves.

In this article:Gold

+1.13%

Gold ForecastSilver

+1.67%

Silver ForecastGold Big Picture Another quick reminder of where I believe we are in the larger bull trend: the 2026 pullback is only the halfway point of a 10-year rally that should take gold well above $10,000 by the end of the decade. Just like in 2006, I expect the recent lows to hold throughout the remainder of the bull market. In other words, I believe we just saw a major bottom.

Gold Gold bottomed mid-year, almost exactly as forecasted, and the uptrend is now resuming. As I noted in mid-July, expect the uptrend to begin gradually, with periods of sideways churn along the way. Medium term, we see prices trading above $7,000 in the second half of next year, which should be very good for miners.

Silver Silver likely bottomed in mid-July, as forecasted, but I’ll feel more confident once we see price break decisively above the cycle downtrend line, which could take another week or two. We expect silver to make new all-time highs alongside gold next year, but the real fireworks likely won’t arrive until the final stage of the bull market, which we expect around 2030–2031.

Platinum Platinum turned higher after reaching our mid-year target and is now very close to confirming a major bottom. It too should reach new all-time highs next year, but its greatest gains may not arrive until the final 12 months of the bull market. That’s when we expect platinum to return to parity with gold.

GDX Miners look strong after forming a major bottom mid-year, as forecasted. During the first half of the bull market, miners lagged, but we believe that is now changing. We expect miners to make new all-time highs well ahead of gold. I’ll be monitoring the GDX-to-gold ratio for confirmation of this shift in leadership.

GDXJ Gold juniors surged more than 30% after forming a major bottom, almost exactly as forecasted. Prices are overbought in the near term, so a period of consolidation wouldn’t be surprising. Medium term, we expect prices to make new all-time highs well ahead of gold as miners finally begin to outperform.

SILJ Silver juniors have closed decisively above the cycle downtrend line, confirming a major bottom at $23.06. If I’m correct that miners are set to outperform going forward, prices should make new highs well ahead of silver.

GDX:GOLD Ratio If I’m right about miners outperforming, I’d expect to see the GDX-to-gold ratio decisively break above 0.022 in the coming months.

Bitcoin We have a little over two months remaining in the bear cycle before I expect a 4-year low, with mid-October as my best estimate. The final washout below $57,000 could take about a month, so I’d like to see the breakdown begin sometime between now and mid-September.

I believe Bitcoin needs to fall below $50,000 to truly flush out sentiment and complete the cycle, with a likely target around $40,000, give or take 5%.

In Closing While many well-known analysts were calling for new all-time highs in precious metals back in April, we cautioned members to expect a deeper correction into a mid-year low. Prices bottomed almost exactly as we laid out to subscribers, and the next major uptrend has now begun.

We expect much higher prices into 2030/2031, with the strongest gains likely to occur during the final 12 months of the bull market. Miners should outperform from here, and pullbacks should be considered opportunities. For more price predictions and daily market commentary, consider subscribing at www.GoldPredict.com.

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Nasdaq Index: CoreWeave and Super Micro Drive Tech Stocks Higher After CPIUS Indices Price Analysis – US Indices Stable Ahead of CPIUS 10 Year, USDJPY, Platinum, and XLE – Price Action Heading into CPIAbout the Author

AG Thorson is a registered CMT and expert in technical analysis. He believes we are in the final stages of a global debt super-cycle that will begin to unravel in 2020.

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Good Day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! What the heck is going on with the dollar? It seemed that after it closed at the same level in the BBDXY as it did the previous day (1,203) that the currency traders had gone home already 3 days early... I guess, when I check the overnight markets, in a minute, something will have changed... My beloved Cardinals won last night VS the Phillies 2-0... The bullpen tried to give it away, but then they had a savior... My second favorite song by Chicago is playing to greet me this morning: Beginnings...

Well, I already told you the dollar didn't move yesterday and stayed steady Eddie with the BBDXY at 1,203... Gold couldn't help itself yesterday as the SPTs took a pound of flesh, and Gold ended the day down, $22. And Silver saw the same SPTs doing their thing pushing Silver down $1.04... Gold closed at $4,369, and Silver at $64.81

The price of Oil continued to rise as the war wages on... Oil was up $2 and change and ended the day at $82.91.... The 10-year Treasury saw its yield bump higher again and ended the day at 4.69% yield...

In the overnight markets last night.... there was some dollar selling overnight with the BBXY down 1 index point to start the day. The BBDXY is 1,202 and looking very shaky.. The STUPID CPI is getting ready to print and most folks that look at this all the time seem to think that we'll see the STUPID CPI soften in July... That would put the rate cut folks on notice and give some OOMPH to the dollar... We'll see, eh?

Gold/Silver are back on the rally horse this morning. Gold is up $45 and Silver is up $1.61... The metals traders are of a different opinion on the STUPID CPI... I always seemed to pin my flag to the Currency Traders...

The price of Oil bumped higher to trade with an $83 handle this morning, and the 10-year is seeing some more yield control by the Fed Heads, and this has brought the yield on the bond to 4.66%... why can't they just leave this bond alone to trade on its own devices? Well, I know why and so do you... The Fed Heads are attempting to keep rates in the ballpark so that the servicing costs (interest payments) don't go through the roof...  

The Chinese Gold Association told us yesterday that Gold consumption rose 1.23% for the 1st half of this year. The association noted that the country's gold consumption patterns were in flux, as the combination of sharp price fluctuations and a new policy toward taxation on Gold kept Gold from really moving past its previous record for consumption. 

I sure wish the Chinese would clean on just exactly how much Gold they hold... The Gold Co's listing for holding of Gold for the Chinese can't possibly be correct, and it's way too low.... I guess one day, when push comes to shove and the leaders of countries sit down and show what they own, then we'll know... But that's a few years from now, the U.S. is not near ready to admit that they're broke and need to sit down.... 

You know if you ran your household finances like the U.S. Gov't does, you would be in a small cell but grateful for 3 meals a day!  Yes, the good news is that tax receipts are 3.576% higher YTD in 2026, the bad news is that have spent 3.74% more than we took in, resulting in a deficit of $1.79 Trillion YTD.

And in case you were wondering on January 8, 1835, President Andrew Jackson paid off the entire national debt, the only time the United States federal government has reported no national debt. So, it was done once.... of course, the total wasn't what it is now, but then we could have done something to curb the growth back in the early 2000's when the debt was only $7 Trillion... and to think, I was yelling from the rooftops then that this was crazy! 

Moving on... you know, we're still in the dog days of

August/summer... and this year, we've seen more volatility in markets than we've ever seen previously.... And that scares me every morning when I sit down and look what to write about... The volatility is all over the board, stocks, bonds, currencies, metals, energy none have been spared.... 

The U.S. Data Cupboard has the STUPID CPI for July for our viewing pleasure this morning... And that' it... The Data Cupboard this week has left us wanting but the data just isn't there... 

To recap... The dollar was stuck in the mud yesterday and only moved 1 index point overnight... China's Gold consumption is strong even with the very high Gold prices earlier this year... And there are conflicting thoughts on where the STUPID CPI will print today... 

For What It's Worth... I saw this headline and read the artical and immediately thought it was FWIW worthy...

Here's your snippet: "The number of adults living with their parents hit a new record in 2025, with 25.2 million adults ages 25 to 35 residing with their parents. That's almost one in three young people who are still living at home.

Unfortunately, in some cases, these multigenerational living arrangements don't work out.

Let's pretend, for example, that Gabriella's son Juan has moved back in with her. He's 27 and works as an office manager, but he's refused to pay his share of the household bills. Gabriella is frustrated that Juan isn't contributing to expenses, and she's not sure if she should make Juan move out or how to handle the situation.

So, what should she do?

Understand the reasons for the non-payment.

The first thing Gabriella needs to do is to figure out why Juan isn't paying rent.

"What parents often forget is that the refusal to help out around the house or pay rent is usually just shame combined with some level of learned helplessness in a kid who may have held jobs before but never fully supported themselves," Hayley Caddes, cofounder of Not Therapy, a coaching company for neurodivergent and stuck 18- to 29-year-olds, told Moneywise."

Chuck Again... well, I used this to illustrate how businesses are not hiring, they're not firing either.... and that causes snagnation!

Market Prices 8/12/2026: American Style: A$ .7070, kiwi .5866, C$ .7177, euro 1.1542, sterling 1.3523, Swiss $1.2321, European Style: rand 16.1426, krone 9.4775, SEK 9.5299, forint 315.42, zloty 3.7292, koruna 21.0019, RUB 83.04, yen 159.09, sing 1.2790, HKD 7.8467, INR 95.33, China 6.7447, peso 17.06, BRL 5.1619, BBDXY 1,202, Dollar Index 99.81, Oil $83.61, 10-year 4.66%, Silver $66.48, Platinum $1,802.00, Palladium $1,426.00, Copper $6.68, and Gold.... $4,414.

That's It for Today... A nice win last night for my beloved Cardinals and keep their hope for the playoffs at fumes and vapors.... I told my two boys on Sunday that this would be a tough and telling series with the Phillies, and it has turned out just that.. I got 6.5 hours of uninterrupted sleep last night after not taking a nap yesterday, so maybe I can get back to a normal sleep pattern.... The Best Beach Boys son ever takes us to the finish line today: God Only Knows... I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself!

For years, the financial news space has been flooded with narratives of dollar doom, an incoming hyperinflation, and gold winning once the U.S. currency finally dies.

According to Brent Johnson, founder of Santiago Capital and author of the “Dollar Milkshake” thesis, that framing gets the world backward. Investors, he argues, should spend less time asking how the monetary system ought to work and more time studying how it actually does.

“Regardless of what our morals or what our wishes tell us the world should be, this is the way it is,” Johnson said. The global economy is still built around the dollar, not because the U.S. has pristine finances, but because every other major country has its own debt, demographic, political or market constraints.

That’s why Johnson rejects the idea that the dollar and gold are mortal enemies. In his framework, they can rise together — and a surging dollar may be more destabilizing than a weak one.

Gold Doesn’t Need a Dollar CollapseGold’s recent strength challenges a core assumption of the doom narrative: that bullion requires currency failure to rally. Since the global financial crisis, the dollar index has strengthened while gold has multiplied in price.

“You don’t have to hate the dollar, and you don’t have to think the dollar is going to collapse and you don’t have to think the United States is going to go into the Great Depression to own gold,” Johnson said.

Gold made headlines earlier this year when it overtook the Treasuries as the leading constituent of bank reserves. Johnson acknowledges deliberate diversification away from Treasuries, but argues the overlooked aspect is how much bullion appreciated while bond prices fell.

Even so, gold buying does not end dollar dependence. Johnson argues central banks accumulate bullion precisely so they can sell it in a crisis to obtain dollars — which helps explain why the two can rise together during liquidity squeezes, then diverge when holders dump appreciated gold to secure scarce dollars for oil, food and debt service.

The Strong Dollar ProblemA weak dollar, in Johnson’s telling, does not break the system; it extends it, fueling credit expansion and looser liquidity. The greater threat is strength.

“A strong dollar will do more to wreck the monetary system than a weak dollar,” he said, pointing out that the reason lies offshore.

“The rest of the world owes far more than 40 trillion. They don’t owe it to the United States. They owe it to each other. And it’s in dollars,” Johnson noted, citing Bank for International Settlements estimates of at least $80 trillion — possibly north of $100 trillion.

Those borrowers cannot print dollars. When the dollar rises against local currencies, servicing that debt grows costlier, triggering credit crunches, defaults and liquidity crises. That scarcity, he argues, also gives Washington geopolitical leverage, extending swap lines with strings attached — as he says played out with Argentina.

“The relative levels of fiat currency are probably the most important thing that nobody understands,” he added.

Disruption Trades Beyond GoldJohnson’s framework also points to less obvious opportunities, like agricultural commodities. He sees potential upside in corn, wheat, soybeans and soybean meal later this year or early next year, tied to possible delays in fertilizer, chemicals and other farm inputs caused by Middle Eastern tensions and Strait of Hormuz disruptions. Invesco DB Agriculture Fund (NYSE:DBA) is up 7.94% year-to-date.

A second overlooked pressure point is aviation maintenance, repair and overhaul. The Gulf is an important MRO hub for widebody cargo jets, and missed maintenance deadlines force regulatory groundings that cascade into fresh supply-chain snarls.

Image via Shutterstock

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