TD Securities’ Bart Melek notes that Gold has rallied sharply as recent U.S. Dollar weakness and concerns over Fed credibility and Treasury bond-market intervention drive fresh long positioning. Worries about America’s fiscal situation are reviving the USD debasement trade and may continue to support Gold, although a move toward TD Securities’ $5,350/oz target is still considered premature.
Fresh longs chase debasement trade"Traders added to gold exposure as the recent U.S. Dollar weakness, Fed Credibility and Treasury Bond Intervention concerns come into focus."
"Worries about America's fiscal situation are once again resurrecting the USD debasement narrative, which, in turn, is energizing gold bugs."
"Based on Treasury Dept statements, market participants believe the government bond market interference may get even more aggressive. At this stage, gold may continue to respond to the weaker USD."
"A move to our $5,350/oz target is a little premature for now."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
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Gold prices rose in Philippines on Monday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 9,197.13 Philippine Pesos (PHP) per gram, up compared with the PHP 9,134.10 it cost on Friday.
The price for Gold increased to PHP 107,275.40 per tola from PHP 106,538.30 per tola on friday.
Unit measure
Gold Price in PHP
1 Gram
9,197.13
10 Grams
91,972.83
Tola
107,275.40
Troy Ounce
286,064.30
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Philippines by adapting international prices (USD/PHP) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices rose in Pakistan on Monday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 41,434.54 Pakistani Rupees (PKR) per gram, up compared with the PKR 41,128.96 it cost on Friday.
The price for Gold increased to PKR 483,284.30 per tola from PKR 479,720.10 per tola on friday.
Unit measure
Gold Price in PKR
1 Gram
41,434.54
10 Grams
414,364.60
Tola
483,284.30
Troy Ounce
1,288,748.00
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Pakistan by adapting international prices (USD/PKR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices rose in Malaysia on Monday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 602.86 Malaysian Ringgits (MYR) per gram, up compared with the MYR 598.07 it cost on Friday.
The price for Gold increased to MYR 7,031.62 per tola from MYR 6,975.73 per tola on friday.
Unit measure
Gold Price in MYR
1 Gram
602.86
10 Grams
6,028.59
Tola
7,031.62
Troy Ounce
18,750.83
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Malaysia by adapting international prices (USD/MYR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Meet Alan, a trader from South Africa with nearly 12 years of experience trading gold and indices. But his journey was not always profitable. After early failures, he rebuilt his confidence by scaling down his position size and focusing on discipline, structure, and risk.
In this interview, Alan reveals:
How he approaches trading gold during the London and New York sessions
The discipline and daily routine that transformed his trading
How he manages risk and rebuilt his confidence after early failures
The wild story behind his worst-ever trade, taken just before boarding a flight
Why his next goal is to become Africa’s first $1 million funded trader
After nearly 12 years in the markets, Alan’s biggest lessons are not about finding the perfect trade. They are about discipline, risk, and staying in the game long enough to improve.
The Gold and oil prices rose as the US Dollar weakened despite high US yields, pointing to inflation risk and growing unease over the US fiscal outlook. Brent crude ended the week above $94 a barrel, while the gold price climbed through $4,600 and the US Dollar slipped to a three-month low against the Euro.
Each move has its own explanation, but the broader picture is harder to dismiss.
Expensive oil threatens to keep inflation elevated, gold is attracting buyers as confidence in government debt comes under pressure, and high US yields are no longer providing the Dollar with reliable support.
Goldman Sachs trader Richard Privorotsky described the backdrop as having a “definite stagflation smell.”
That assessment captures the risk facing markets: weaker growth accompanied by persistent inflation, leaving central banks with little room to support the economy.
Oil Prices Keep Inflation Risk Alive The latest oil rally has been driven by physical supply concerns rather than speculative positioning alone.
Middle Eastern exports remain disrupted, while the impasse surrounding Iran and the Strait of Hormuz has prevented a more substantial recovery in regional shipments.
UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said: “Lower oil exports from the Middle East are once again tightening the oil market.”
Brent gained more than 6% over the week, increasing the risk of another rise in transport, manufacturing and consumer energy costs.
That would make it harder for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, even if economic activity begins to weaken.
Gold Price Rally Highlights the US Dollar’s Problem The Gold price has responded to a different concern.
The US Treasury’s decision to expand purchases of longer-dated government bonds initially lowered yields, but it also raised questions over why intervention was considered necessary.
Gold bullion surged as investors sought protection from rising public debt, inflation and the possibility that policymakers would tolerate a weaker currency to ease financial conditions.
American Gold Exchange analyst Jim Wyckoff described Thursday’s setback as “routine profit-taking pressure” following the previous session’s advance.
The price of Gold subsequently resumed its climb, suggesting that buyers were willing to return quickly after shallow declines.
The US Dollar’s response was especially significant.
Higher Treasury yields would ordinarily increase the appeal of US assets, yet the US Dollar weakened as investors questioned whether bond-market support addressed the underlying fiscal problem.
The Euro to Dollar exchange rate (EUR/USD) gained 0.92% over five sessions, while the AUD/USD rate advanced 1.23%.
This does not point inevitably to a financial crisis, but it does suggest that investors are becoming less comfortable treating US government bonds and the Dollar as the automatic beneficiaries of market stress.
Oil is warning about inflation, gold is reflecting demand for protection and the Dollar is absorbing more of the adjustment.
US PCE inflation data and Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech will test that interpretation next week.
A hawkish response could lift yields and the Dollar, while any acceptance of higher inflation or further bond-market support would strengthen the case for gold and other real assets.
Multiple Upside Targets Emerge Nevertheless, as gold approaches the April high, which may or may not be reached before a correction, there are two initial target zones to watch, beginning with a range from around $4,654 to $4,689. The first level is a measured move projection from the pennant pattern, while the second represents the 50% retracement of a prior decline. However, the standard-measure objective for a bull pennant suggests a potential upside target closer to $4,780. That level is supported as possible resistance by the 50% retracement of a larger downswing near $4,771. The nearby lower swing high at $4,774 also marks a prior price reference.
Support Holds Key to Continuation Of course, key support is at the 200-day moving average, now at $4,516, along with Friday’s higher daily low of $4,509. Holding this support zone would help preserve the breakout and keep the higher targets in play. If it continues to hold as support, gold’s long-term bull trend may be ready to reassert itself, extending the change in character signaled by Friday’s decisive breakout.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
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Platinum technical chart shows the breakout above 1900 after the 1810-1836 bullish gap held, with 1927-1930 as the next upside target. Source: GoldPriceForecast.com.
Let’s begin with yesterday’s roadmap:
“(…) as long as platinum does not produce a daily close below 1798, bulls remain in control and continuation higher remains the path of least resistance.
The first area to watch is around 1874 – the minimum upside target based on the height of the earlier orange consolidation. Beyond that, the psychological 1900 level remains firmly on the radar. (…)”
Now look at what happened next.
Despite bears’ attack the bullish gap at 1810-1836 remained intact, confirming that buyers were still defending the move. As a result, today’s Asian session then opened higher at 1835-1840, and bulls continued marching north.
The result? Platinum broke above 1900, completing the bullish scenario we originally mapped out in our August 10 update.
And yes – congratulations to everyone who had enough patience to let this one develop. Consolidations can be frustrating while they’re happening, but this is exactly why we map the trigger and wait for the market to confirm it.
What comes next? With the original bullish roadmap now completed, the next upside target sits around 1927-1930.
What Invalidates the Bullish Scenario? A daily close below 1810.
Takeaway: Watch 1900 as the immediate battleground. Holding above 1900 → keeps buyers in control and opens the way toward 1927-1930. Daily close below 1810 → invalidates the current bullish scenario.
Quick Levels – Friday Cheat Sheet U.S. Dollar (DX.F)
Watch 98.72 / 99.
→ Daily close below 98.72: bears target 98.30-98.45.
→ Close today’s gap + daily close above 99: bearish scenario invalidated.
Platinum (PL.F)
Watch 1900.
→ Holding above 1900: next target 1927-1930.
→ Daily close below 1810: bullish scenario invalidated.
Friday Bottom Line Precious metals enter Friday with buyers firmly in the game, but several markets are now approaching the exact levels where confirmation matters. Silver has 7000, platinum is testing 1900, palladium is fighting 1373, and gold still has 4654-4685 ahead.
Meanwhile, the dollar remains vulnerable below 99, while copper has just given bulls something they didn’t have yesterday: a successful reclaim of its rising channel.
Don’t chase the move. Watch the levels, wait for the close, and let the market tell you which breakout deserves to survive the weekend.
What analysts at The Gold & Silver Club formally declared in the opening months of the year – “2026 will be the Year of Hard Assets” – has now crystallized into the defining macro theme of the year.
Across global markets, capital is rotating towards scarce, tangible assets at a speed few traders anticipated. Gold has surged from below $4,000 an ounce to around $4,600, while Silver has rocketed from approximately $54 to almost $70 in just weeks.
Copper is challenging record territory. Tin has emerged as one of 2026’s standout metals. Oil remains structurally elevated. Across the Commodity complex, the message is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore:
The hard-asset repricing is accelerating and the next phase could be far more explosive.
The latest catalyst has emerged from the U.S government bond market.
With long-dated Treasury yields reaching levels not seen for almost two decades, the U.S Treasury has moved to expand its liquidity-support buyback programme for longer-duration government debt – effectively increasing its ability to remove bonds from the market when liquidity becomes strained.
This is not quantitative easing. It is not formal yield-curve control.
But markets rarely wait for policy labels.
“The significance is the direction of travel,” says Lars Hansen, Head of Research at The Gold & Silver Club. “The Treasury is signalling that disorderly increases in long-term borrowing costs are becoming increasingly uncomfortable. Gold understands exactly what that potentially means.”
America’s federal debt has now crossed the historic $40 trillion threshold, while the cost of servicing that debt continues to rise.
At the same time, major foreign holders have been reducing their exposure to U.S Treasuries.
That combination creates an increasingly difficult policy dilemma: rising debt, weaker marginal demand and borrowing costs that cannot remain elevated indefinitely without consequences.
The critical question is what happens if long-term yields continue climbing.
Treasury buybacks can improve liquidity. They cannot impose permanent control over the yield curve. Only the Federal Reserve has the balance-sheet capacity to do that on a meaningful scale.
And that is where the Gold market becomes particularly interesting.
“If policymakers are eventually forced towards renewed liquidity creation, financial repression or some form of yield suppression, the implications for Gold and Silver could be enormous,” Hansen says. “The market does not need QE4 to be announced. It only needs to believe the probability is rising.”
That probability is increasingly being reflected in price.
Silver’s recent performance may be the clearest warning that market psychology is changing.
Its move from roughly $54 to almost $70 represents a gain approaching 30% from its recent low – dramatically outperforming most major asset classes.
Because Silver’s investable market is considerably smaller than Gold’s, even modest institutional rotation can create lightning-fast upside acceleration.
“Gold tends to validate the macro regime; Silver monetizes the excitement,” Hansen says. “If Gold clears $4,700 and Silver breaks decisively above $75 – that’s when $100 Silver and $5,000 Gold may stop looking like distant targets and start becoming the market’s next psychological milestones.
Over the past 15 years, The Gold & Silver Club has built a reputation as one of the industry’s most accurate forecasters of major precious metal price trends, a record well documented across leading financial publications and institutional research reports.
The firm’s proprietary models have consistently pinpointed major turning points in both Gold and Silver – earning GSC recognition as a trusted authority among institutional investors and private wealth clients alike.
“The largest gains in secular bull markets are rarely captured by traders who wait until everyone agrees,” Hansen says. “They are captured while the evidence is mounting, but the crowd is still hesitating.”
That may be exactly where Gold and Silver stand today.
The debt burden is accelerating. Bond markets are flashing warnings. Capital is rotating into hard assets. And the next major technical trigger is now within striking distance.
If the breakout arrives, today’s prices could quickly become the levels traders wish they had acted on earlier.
The window to position before the next leg higher will not remain open indefinitely. Once momentum accelerates, hesitation can rapidly turn into chasing.
The question now is no longer whether FOMO will arrive if Gold and Silver break higher. It is whether traders choose to act before it does – or find themselves chasing the market at significantly higher prices.
Where are prices heading next? Watch The Commodity Report now, for my latest price forecasts and predictions:
Gold has entered a decisive bullish phase after reclaiming the $4,500-$4550 area and extending higher toward the $4,600 psychological barrier. The Daily time frame chart shows a clear improvement in market structure, with successive higher highs and higher lows.
The move is being reinforced by a combination of a softer US dollar, changing expectations around US monetary policy, lower Treasury yields following the US Treasury's expanded long-duration debt buyback programme, and renewed concern about US fiscal/debt sustainability. Spot gold reached approximately $4,604 on Friday, its highest level since May 15, while gold was on course for a third consecutive weekly gain.
The key technical development is the reclaim of the $4,500–$4,550 zone, which has transformed an important former resistance area into the first major support region.
Primary view: bullish above $4,500–$4,550.
Near-term objective: $4,635–$4,670.
Next major upside zone: $4,720–$4,770.
Bullish structure invalidation: Sustained weakness below approximately $4,450, with a more important failure below $4,390.
Gold Daily Chart Courtesy www.skcharting.comMarket structureD1 — Major Trend Transition
The daily chart shows a significant structural recovery.
Gold declined sharply from the January peak and subsequently formed a prolonged corrective/downtrend structure through June and July. The market then established a base around the $4,050–$4,100 region.
The August advance has changed the character of the market:
Higher low established around the $4,050–$4,100 area.
Price reclaimed $4,225.
Subsequently broke above $4,390.
Price then accelerated through $4,500.
Current price reached $4604 and is testing local demand area $4,560.
This represents a transition from distribution/correction → accumulation → bullish expansion.
The D1 chart therefore supports a medium-term bullish reversal rather than merely a short-lived intraday rally.
Key drivers behind the prevailing bullish momentum1. US Dollar weakness
A softer dollar is providing an important tailwind for gold.
The dollar was trading near a three-month low on August 21, while the 10-year Treasury yield was around 4.69%.
For gold, the combination is constructive because a weaker dollar reduces the metal's cost for non-US investors and generally improves demand for dollar-denominated bullion.
2. Treasury buybacks and fiscal concerns
One of the most important catalysts behind the latest acceleration has been the US Treasury's decision to expand buybacks of longer-dated government securities.
The move contributed to lower Treasury yields initially and helped weaken the dollar, creating a favourable environment for gold.
More importantly, the market is increasingly focusing on the sustainability of US government debt and borrowing requirements.
This is creating a second channel of demand for gold:
Gold is increasingly being treated not only as an interest-rate trade, but also as a hedge against fiscal and currency risks.
3. Changing US monetary-policy expectations
Recent price action indicates that expectations for aggressive US monetary tightening have moderated.
Gold has historically benefited when real yields and the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset decline. Current market conditions are therefore more supportive than they were during periods of renewed hawkish Fed expectations.
However, this remains a major risk factor: a renewed rise in US inflation expectations, Treasury yields or hawkish Fed guidance could trigger a correction.
4. Central-bank demand
The structural demand story remains supportive.
The World Gold Council's 2026 central-bank survey found that 89% of reserve managers expect global central-bank gold holdings to increase over the next 12 months, while 45% expect their own gold holdings to rise.
H1 2026 data also showed significant purchases from Poland, Uzbekistan, China and Kazakhstan.
This provides an important long-term floor beneath the market.
5. Investment demand
Gold ETF activity remains an important variable.
The World Gold Council notes that investment demand should remain constructive during the remainder of 2026, although Western ETF flows remain sensitive to real yields, monetary-policy expectations and the US dollar.
Chinese gold ETFs also recorded positive flows in July, with holdings increasing by approximately 5 tonnes, while inflows continued into August.
Gold is now significantly extended after its rapid August advance. Gold had gained approximately 4.2% during the week and had moved above its 200-day moving average aligning with psychological zone $4500
At elevated prices:-
Jewellery demand can weaken.
Profit-taking can increase.
ETF flows can reverse quickly.
A rise in real yields can pressure gold.
A stronger US dollar could trigger a sharp correction.
Hawkish Federal Reserve communication could temporarily challenge the bullish trend.
Therefore, the fundamental backdrop is bullish, but the risk/reward of chasing the market at $4,600 is less attractive than buying a controlled retracement.
Buy dips rather than sell rallies, unless price produces a confirmed bearish structural reversal.
The bullish scenario remains valid while the market continues to form higher lows above the $4,500–$4,510 breakout region.
A sustained move above $4,605 would shift the focus toward:
$4,635 → $4,670 → $4,720/4,750
Conversely, a sustained daily close back below $4,500 would warn of a failed breakout and increase the probability of a deeper retracement toward $4,450–$4,390.
Note: These are my personal readings based on price action and technical studies and not a trading advice.
Commerzbank’s Carsten Fritsch notes Gold has surged, breaking above USD 4,500 per troy ounce as safe‑haven demand rises on US debt concerns and a weaker Dollar. The US Treasury’s bond buyback announcement triggered the sharpest daily Gold rally in six and a half months, with strong ETF inflows, though upside momentum may slow if US inflation data stays elevated.
Debt concerns boost safe haven"The gold price jumped by more than 4% or around USD 180 on Wednesday, marking its sharpest daily rise in six and a half months. The price also surpassed the USD 4,500 per troy ounce mark for the first time since early June."
"This was triggered by the US Treasury’s announcement that it intended to more than double the volume of buybacks of long-term US government bonds with maturities of 10 to 30 years. This move comes against the backdrop of a sharp rise in bond yields in the preceding days."
"This measure calmed the bond market and led to a decline in yields. At the same time, the US dollar depreciated significantly. Confidence in the US dollar as a safe haven appears to be eroding, as investors are demanding higher yields for US government bonds and the Treasury is having to step in."
"The main beneficiary of this is gold, as evidenced by strong inflows into gold ETFs. Holdings in the gold ETFs tracked by Bloomberg recorded their strongest daily increase since September 2025 yesterday, at 18 tons."
"On the gold market, the US Treasury’s announcement was seen as a sign of stress. The sharp rise in US bond yields in the preceding days was not, in fact, due to a change in Fed interest rate expectations, but rather to long-term inflation risks and growing concerns about debt levels."
"This is consistent with the news that public debt in the US broke through the USD 40 trillion (USD 40,000,000,000,000) barrier for the first time this week. It is barely four and a half years since the debt level exceeded the USD 30 trillion mark. Interest payments are expected to amount to USD 1.1 trillion this fiscal year, which represents a threefold increase within five years."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
The Gold price surged towards $4,600 as the US Dollar slid to three-month lows, with falling confidence in US debt markets adding fresh momentum to bullion. Gold prices extended their powerful recovery on Friday, briefly breaking above $4,600 as a weaker US Dollar and renewed concern over US fiscal sustainability drove demand for hard assets.
Reuters reported an intraday high of $4,601.29, the strongest level since mid-May, while Exchange Rates UK market data put XAU/USD around $4,590 later in the morning.
Gold was 1.40% higher on the day, almost 4.9% stronger over five sessions and around 12.5% higher over the past month.
The rally has accelerated since the US Treasury expanded long-dated bond buybacks, a move that initially pulled yields lower and raised fresh questions over how Washington intends to manage pressure at the long end of the curve.
Brian Lan, Managing Director at GoldSilver Central, captured the immediate catalyst: “We've seen the dollar weakening and that has supported not just gold but all precious metals, along with a big change in yields”.
Gold Breaks Technical Resistance The move above the 200-day moving average has added a technical tailwind, while the Dollar's slide towards three-month lows has reduced the cost of bullion for non-US buyers.
Alexander Zumpfe of Heraeus Metals Germany also sees a supportive structural backdrop, arguing that “Gold’s milestone rally through 2025 has set the stage for a continuation of its bull trend in 2026”.
His 2026 LBMA forecast range spans $3,450 to $5,200, with an average projection of $4,620.
The immediate test is whether gold can establish itself above $4,600 rather than merely spike through the level. A sustained break would expose $4,650 and then the $4,900 area, while failure to hold $4,500 would warn that the latest move has become stretched.
The medium-term backdrop nevertheless remains supportive while the Dollar is under pressure and investors remain uneasy over the US fiscal and Treasury-market outlook.
Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.
Gold stays poised to post third straight week of gainsUS Treasury move risks creating unintended consequences for markets and the economyWhy markets care more about the signal than the size of the Treasury buybackHow have interest rate expectations changed after this week's events?Stock market sector rotation explained: Where investors are moving their money nowECB's Kazāks says September decision will be based on data, adds there are pros and cons to hiking furtherFrench business activity contracts further in August as demand conditions remain subduedGermany August flash manufacturing PMI 54.1 vs 52.0 expectedEuro area business activity sees further pick up in August despite France, Germany softnessUK August flash services PMI 52.8 vs 51.8 expectedUK retail sales fall in July as early summer buzz fadesMarkets:
AUD leads, USD lags on the dayGold up 1.7% to $4,596WTI crude oil up 0.4% to $87.20US 10-year yields down 0.6 bps to 4.692%European indices slightly higher; S&P 500 futures up 0.4%Bitcoin up 6.6% to $77,502Markets continue to debate the US Treasury decision to double long-term debt buybacks this week, with the dollar falling off again as Treasury yields stall after a bounce yesterday.
10-year yields in the US climbed back to 4.70% while 30-year yields pushed to 5.25% before easing back a little and that is sustaining the relief as the "Bessent put" stays in place. In turn, the dollar is seen falling across the board with EUR/USD testing waters above 1.1700 and GBP/USD hitting fresh 6-month highs of 1.3660. Elsewhere, USD/JPY is down 0.3% to 158.60 while AUD/USD is up 0.8% to 0.7165 on the day.
In terms of economic data releases, euro area PMI data saw France and Germany disappoint but the overall Eurozone data was more positive in being carried by a better showing by the rest of the region. Menawhile, UK PMI data was also more positive but it also saw inflation pressures ramp up. So, there's that.
But in terms of market impact, the PMI data didn't do much. It's all on the continued focus on the reaction to the US Treasury move from earlier this week.
Gold is the biggest winner it would seem, climbing further to briefly clip $4,600 earlier and still up by 1.7% to $4,596 currently. Silver also briefly touched $70 and is up 2.6% to $69.90 at the moment.
In other markets, equities are looking to find a steadier footing to close out the week with European indices up a little while Wall Street looks to bounce back from yesterday's setback. S&P 500 futures are up 0.4% while Nasdaq futures are up 0.6%.
And quietly, we're also seeing cryptocurrencies surge higher again in extending gains from earlier this week with Bitcoin keeping above $77,000.
Gold (XAU/USD) extends gains on Friday, with bulls aiming for a retest of the $4,600 resistance area, the top of the last six months' trading range. Precious metals are gaining momentum, favoured by a sharp US Dollar selloff, following the announcement of a US Treasury plan to boost liquidity to repurchase long-term securities.
Rabobank analysts observe that “normally, lower Treasury yields weaken the currency through the interest-rate channel,” but this episode appears different. “This time, gold and crypto also rallied, suggesting concern about fiscal credibility and the perceived management of borrowing costs,” says the bank. Against that backdrop, the experts wonder whether “the end-result will be unchanged long-term yields, but a weaker dollar,” underscoring a potential shift in how markets are pricing US risks.
Technical Analysis: Bullish momentum improves above the 200-day SMA
XAU/USD trades at $4,582, retaining a bullish near-term bias although the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is reaching overbought levels in most timeframes. The precious metal has breached the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), a very popular indicator among traders, but the daily chart shows RSI right at the 70 level, which hints at a stretched rally.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains positive, with the histogram printing wider green bars, which suggests that dips are likely to be bought.
Bulls are focused on the horizontal cap near $4,590 (May 29 highs). Above here, the $4700 psychological level and May's top at $4.4773 emerge as the next targets, although a bit far away for today.
On the downside, the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,514 defends the bullish structure. A bearish reaction below that level would expose the previous top, at $4,450, and the August 14 low, near $4,310.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Gold price (XAU/USD) is up 0.65% at around $4,550 during the early European trading session on Friday, the highest level seen in over 11 weeks. The precious metal capitalizes on a weak US Dollar (USD), which has been hit hard, as the Treasury’s decision to double down on long-term debt buybacks has amplified market concerns over escalating borrowing costs and the growing fiscal strain from the government’s ballooning debt.
As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.1% lower at around 98.73. The USD Index is closer to its three-month low of 98.55 posted on Thursday.
A lower US Dollar makes the Gold price a favorable risk-reward bet for investors.
The announcement of faster US debt-repayment plans led to a sharp plunge in US bond yields and the US Dollar. However, there has been a strong recovery in Treasury yields, but the Greenback continues to face the heat.
Financial markets doubt that US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s aggressive bond-buyback plan is enough to contain higher borrowing costs, but seem confident that to be vulnerable for the US Dollar.
US Treasury buybacks seen risking confidence in Dollar assetsAnalysts at MUFG argue that if, as Scott Bessent suggests, policymakers are serious about addressing market concerns, then the US Treasury “could play a key role here by of course addressing the ever-expending fiscal deficit with fiscal consolidation.”
However, they add that “we all know that’s not going to happen,” and warn that the latest buyback announcement, combined with the “FIMA report comment to Japan following intervention,” risks proving “counter-productive” by leading to “reduced appetite for either holding US assets (UST bond sales) or reduced appetite for exposure to the US dollar (dollar selling) or both.” MUFG concludes that “even if the Treasury buy-back plan does contain yields, the US dollar now remains more vulnerable to the downside on the fact that yields are potentially lower.”
Gold’s next move largely relies on Fed’s policy actionsStrategists at GoldSilver Central have said that “Gold's upward trajectory would be determined by what the Federal Reserve (Fed) decides to do next and how those policies impact market rate expectations”, Reuters reports.
This shifts all focus to Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium, which is scheduled for August 27-29.
However, history shows that the Fed Chairman is not a fan of delivering so-called “forward guidance” on the monetary policy.
Meanwhile, the CME FedWatch tool shows that the Fed is anticipated to leave interest rates unchanged in the September policy meeting.
Gold Technical Forecast
In the daily chart, XAU/USD trades at around $4,550, extending its advance well above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $4,325.64 and reinforcing a bullish near-term bias. The distance between spot and the EMA suggests a strong upside extension rather than a balanced trend, while the Relative Strength Index (14) at 68.39 flirts with overbought territory, hinting that bullish momentum remains firm but increasingly stretched.
On the downside, initial support is seen at the 20-day EMA around $4,325.64, which should act as the first dynamic floor on any corrective pullback. Looking up, the precious metal could extend its advance towards the May 29 high at $4,595.34.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Gold prices rose in Philippines on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 9,027.99 Philippine Pesos (PHP) per gram, up compared with the PHP 8,972.21 it cost on Thursday.
The price for Gold increased to PHP 105,300.90 per tola from PHP 104,650.10 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in PHP
1 Gram
9,027.99
10 Grams
90,280.06
Tola
105,300.90
Troy Ounce
280,803.50
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Philippines by adapting international prices (USD/PHP) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices rose in Saudi Arabia on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 549.03 Saudi Riyals (SAR) per gram, up compared with the SAR 545.56 it cost on Thursday.
The price for Gold increased to SAR 6,403.91 per tola from SAR 6,363.25 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in SAR
1 Gram
549.03
10 Grams
5,490.39
Tola
6,403.91
Troy Ounce
17,076.85
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Saudi Arabia by adapting international prices (USD/SAR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices rose in United Arab Emirates on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 536.88 United Arab Emirates Dirhams (AED) per gram, up compared with the AED 533.60 it cost on Thursday.
The price for Gold increased to AED 6,262.03 per tola from AED 6,223.77 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in AED
1 Gram
536.88
10 Grams
5,368.80
Tola
6,262.03
Troy Ounce
16,698.82
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in United Arab Emirates by adapting international prices (USD/AED) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices rose in Malaysia on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 591.02 Malaysian Ringgits (MYR) per gram, up compared with the MYR 587.79 it cost on Thursday.
The price for Gold increased to MYR 6,893.78 per tola from MYR 6,855.90 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in MYR
1 Gram
591.02
10 Grams
5,910.40
Tola
6,893.78
Troy Ounce
18,382.10
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Malaysia by adapting international prices (USD/MYR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Pennant Breakout Gains Traction Continued signs of strength follow the breakout of a bullish pennant pattern on Wednesday. The breakout ended with buyers in control, as gold closed near the top of the session’s range. Although this bullish pattern is contained within a larger downtrend structure, the sharp advance that preceded the short consolidation pattern suggests that momentum may be sufficient to challenge the broader bearish structure. If demand remains strong, gold could recover the downtrend line and continue toward higher initial targets.
Upside Targets Take Shape A simple measured move objective from the pattern shows a possible conservative target near $4,654. In addition, there is a confluence of two Fibonacci retracement levels at $4,689. Together, these levels establish a potential resistance zone from $4,654 to $4,689. The standard measuring objective, however, points to $4,779 as a potential upside target, providing a higher target if bullish momentum continues to strengthen following the breakout.
Long-Term Confirmation Still Needed Despite the potential for upside, additional signs of strength are needed. Most importantly, a sustained reclaim of the 200-day moving average would signal a meaningful change in character and provide further confirmation that buyers are gaining control. Gold has traded below the 200-day moving average since June 5, making the current test particularly significant. A decisive move above the average would strengthen the bullish case and support continued gains toward the pattern’s higher price targets.
Ryan McKay and Bart Melek at TD Securities say Gold and broader precious metals are likely to remain comfortable in a higher trading range. While systematic and ETF inflows have slowed and rates ticked up, Treasury support for the long end and a Fed tolerant of higher energy costs underpin near-term Gold. However, further upside may wait on clearer Fed-on-hold conviction.
Precious metals consolidate elevated band"While the barrage of recent flows from systematic funds, macro discretionary funds, Asian speculators, and ETFs has notably slowed, and interest rates have moved higher again after yesterday's liquidity measures, gold and precious metals are likely to find comfort in this higher range."
"The signal of the Treasury looking to support the longer end, alongside a Fed willing to look past higher energy prices, should be enough to support the yellow metal in the near-term."
"However, with the market still pricing in hikes for 2027, the next leg higher for gold is unlikely to materialize before the broader market becomes more convinced that the Fed remains on hold."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Daily Spot Gold (XAU/USD) Spot Gold is edging lower on Thursday after failing to follow through to the upside following yesterday’s high at $4524.34. The 200-day moving average at $4511.57 is also a factor preventing the continuation of the rally.
The main range by my calculations is $3886.46 to $5602.23. Its 50% to 61.8% retracement zone is $4744.34 to $4541.88. Once the market overcomes the 200-day MA with conviction, the first upside target is this zone.
Today’s weakness has also put the market back under $4481.78 and back into bear market territory.
The nearest support is a minor 50% level at $4416.82. Spot gold spent about two weeks testing this level prior to Wednesday’s rally. It may prove to be strong support if tested today. If it fails, then we could see a test of the swing bottom at $4311.04. Momentum could shift back to the downside if this level doesn’t hold as support.
While the 200-day MA is acting like resistance, the 50-day moving average at $4163.69 is starting to hook up, which could develop into a strong near-term bullish signal.
What to Watch Wednesday’s Treasury rally lost momentum overnight and yields found buyers again. The FOMC minutes added selling pressure by putting another rate increase back into the discussion. Crude above $93 is keeping the inflation risk alive and giving the Fed a reason to stay cautious regardless of what the growth data shows. Gold needs yields to resume their decline and the dollar to stay soft. Thursday has one of those conditions and not the other.
The metal failed just short of the 200-day moving average at $4511.57 and dropped back under the bear market threshold at $4481.78. The two-week support at $4416.82 is the first level where buyers showed up before Wednesday’s rally. Below that, the swing bottom at $4311.04 is where the trend changes. The 50-day is starting to hook higher, which is a signal the bulls want to see develop. The 200-day overhead remains the line that separates the current range from a move that draws institutional money back into gold.
If you’d like to know more about how to trade gold, please visit our educational area.
Yesterday, the US Treasury announced that it will be doubling its purchasing of longer-term bonds.
That’s 4 billion dollars worth from September to November.
This drove USD even weaker.
In today’s Market Outlook, let’s take a look at Forex trading on WTI Crude Oil, Walmart, AUDUSD, USDJPY, Gold, XAUUSD, Silver, XAGUSD, and EURUSD.
In an attempt to convince investors and other central banks that bond yields aren’t getting out of control and to stop dumping US bonds, the US Treasury took action.
That, in turn, drove USD weaker, with the trend, and you will see this on every chart.
This affected gold as well.
If you saw our last video, we pointed out that analysts were looking at $4,500, and here we are.
Silver was dipping even lower, out of step with gold, and XAGUSD has also risen.
This has also helped with the economic issues with Japan, so maybe Scott Bessent won’t have to spend another $4 billion buying JPY.
Yesterday, we spotted this reversal of price at the lower trend line of AUDUSD, and the US Treasury announcement really helped with the bull run.
So, how did all this affect the stock markets?
We can see that the S&P 500 rallied, and this is normal when bond yields fall, but it seems that the bear run will continue.
Getting back to the AUD, the big move upward on AUDUSD shows just how influential USD is as yesterday’s Australian employment data was very bad, with a big miss to the downside.
As we can see in AUDNZD and AUDCHF, we will be looking for retracements on AUD pairs.
If we look at the daily chart on AUDCHF, we see that the news may be giving us our News Catalyst Fade, so we will be watching for a reversal.
And, if you are interested in trading equities, you may want to look at buying the dip on Walmart as their earnings report happens today.
And, we have a complete standstill in Iran with no peace talks going on, and Crude Oil prices are elevated and consolidating.
All we can say here is to watch the news.
That’s all for now.
CFDs and FX are leveraged products, and your capital may be at risk.
We hit the sell opportunity at 4355/4365 and Gold held here for 4 hours but then the Treasury Dept announced support of longer bond prices.
Shorts were immediately stopped above 4375 and we shot higher to my longer term target of 4495/4505 (which I had talked about last week when we had the first buy signals).
In the Telegram group we bought Gold at 4450/4440 before we hit the target of 4495/4505, pocketing 500 ticks.
First support at 4485/4475 & longs need stops below 4465.
A break lower however targets better support at 4450/4440 (where we were buying in the Telegram group yesterday).
Longs need stops below 4430.
We have resistance at 4505/4515 & we are struggling here. However I think shorts are risky & I prefer to buy a break above 4525, targeting 4545/49 & 4565/4570.
Gold Eases After 4% Rally as Treasury Yields Stabilise
Gold is easing slightly after rallying 4% in the previous session to a two-month high, following a U.S. Treasury announcement aimed at supporting long-duration bonds that weakened the dollar and pulled Treasury yields lower.
The U.S. Treasury announced yesterday that it would double the size of its buyback operations for long-dated bonds, targeting maturities between 10 and 30 years.
The announcement came after a major bond sell-off at the start of the week, which saw the 30-year Treasury yield rise to a 19-year high amid concerns over inflation and the U.S. fiscal outlook. Total U.S. government debt also topped $40 trillion for the first time.
At the same time, foreign investors are scaling back their purchases of U.S. Treasuries, adding another concern for the bond market.
The Treasury announcement helped pull the U.S. dollar down to a three-month low, where it remains today.
For gold, the combination of rising concerns over U.S. debt and weaker confidence in the Treasury market is potentially bullish. If investors become increasingly concerned about the U.S. fiscal outlook, gold could benefit as an alternative store of value.
However, inflation remains a risk.
The minutes of the Federal Reserve's July meeting showed that policymakers had become more hawkish compared with the June meeting. Since then, however, inflation data has been relatively subdued and the labour market has weakened, suggesting that a rate hike is unlikely to be imminent.
The market is now pricing in a 69% probability that the Fed will leave rates unchanged in September, up considerably from 45% two weeks ago.
Whether gold can hold these levels will depend partly on where Treasury yields go from here and what Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh says at next week's Jackson Hole Symposium.
If U.S. yields rebound and the dollar recovers, gold could come under pressure again. But if yields remain contained and concerns over the U.S. fiscal outlook continue to build, the backdrop remains supportive for gold.
Gold Forecast – Technical Analysis
Gold extended its breakout from the triangle pattern to a 10-week high of 4,525 before easing back towards 4,490 at the time of writing.
The price remains above its key EMAs and the RSI is above 50, keeping buyers hopeful of further gains.
Buyers will look to break above 4,525 to bring 4,765, the May high, into focus, followed by 4,890, the April peak, and then 5,000, the psychological level.
On the downside, support comes from the cluster of EMAs, with 4,325 providing immediate support. Below here, the 100 and 200 EMAs around 4,300 and the 50 EMA around 4,260 come into focus.
A break below 4,260 would open the door to 4,200, the round number, followed by 4,100, the March low.
EUR/USD Jumps Towards 1.17 as Dollar Falls to Three-Month Low
EUR/USD has rallied to its highest level since May after the U.S. Treasury stepped in to support the bond market, pulling the U.S. dollar down to a three-month low against its major peers.
The surprise announcement that the Treasury would significantly increase its bond buyback operations hit the dollar, as Treasury yields fell back from their recent highs.
The U.S. Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against six major currencies, fell to an 11-week low near 98.70.
The weaker dollar has been the main catalyst behind the latest move higher in EUR/USD.
The euro also has some support of its own. The ECB is expected to raise interest rates at its September meeting, contrasting with the Federal Reserve, which is increasingly expected to leave rates unchanged following subdued U.S. inflation data and a weaker-than-expected non-farm payroll report.
That is despite the latest Fed minutes showing that policymakers remain concerned about inflation.
Markets are pricing in around 45 basis points of additional ECB tightening this year, with the final hike expected in September as inflation remains above the ECB's 2% target.
Oil prices above $90 a barrel strengthen the case for higher European inflation, although expensive energy also creates a problem for the Eurozone economy by putting pressure on consumers and businesses.
The bigger point, however, is that this remains largely a dollar story. That makes the latest jump in EUR/USD potentially fragile. If Treasury yields rebound or U.S. data starts to support higher Fed rate expectations again, the dollar could recover and put the recent euro gains under pressure.
EUR/USD Forecast – Technical Analysis
EUR/USD has extended its recovery from the 1.1350 July low, breaking out of the falling trend channel and moving above both the 50 and 200 EMAs.
The pair has reached 1.17, while the RSI has just moved into overbought territory. This raises the possibility of some consolidation after the recent move higher.
Buyers will look to break above 1.17 to bring 1.18 into focus, a level last seen in early May.
Above here, attention turns towards 1.1850, the April high.
On the downside, support can be seen around 1.16, the round number.
A break below here would bring the moving averages into focus, with the 200 EMA around 1.1560 and the 50 EMA providing the next layer of support ahead of 1.15.
Gold prices fell in Philippines on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 8,901.44 Philippine Pesos (PHP) per gram, down compared with the PHP 8,955.29 it cost on Wednesday.
The price for Gold decreased to PHP 103,824.90 per tola from PHP 104,452.80 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in PHP
1 Gram
8,901.44
10 Grams
89,015.05
Tola
103,824.90
Troy Ounce
276,865.80
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Philippines by adapting international prices (USD/PHP) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
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TL;DR: Gold surged 3.7% to $4,495 after a Treasury buyback shock sent long-end yields and the Dollar tumbling — a real-yield move that survived hawkish FOMC minutes and now puts a break above $4,600 within reach of $5,000.
Treasury Buyback Shock Cracks Long Yields Gold’s path toward $5,000 has become more credible after Wednesday’s Treasury buyback shock triggered a sharp reversal across US yields and Dollar, giving bullion precisely kind of real-rate backdrop needed to extend its medium-term recovery. Gold surged around 3.7% to $4,495 on August 19, its strongest level since early June, while 30-year Treasury yield dropped from this week’s near-two-decade high above 5.33% to around 5.20% and 10-year yield retreated from around 4.75% to 4.65%. Dollar Index simultaneously slid roughly 0.8% to a fresh three-month low near 98.85. Importantly, Gold rose alongside equities and Bitcoin rather than in isolation, pointing to falling real yields and weaker Dollar—not classic risk aversion—as dominant transmission mechanism.
Catalyst was Treasury Department’s unexpected decision to at least double maximum size of long-dated debt buybacks, from $2bn to at least $4bn, targeting 10–20 year and 20–30 year sectors from September 9 through November 4. Actual enlarged operations are still weeks away, yet bond market repriced immediately. That reaction highlights how stretched long end had become after persistent selling pressure. Markets effectively front-ran future liquidity support and relief to duration pressure, driving yields lower before Treasury had purchased a single additional bond.
Hawkish Fed Minutes Couldn’t Reverse the Move More strikingly, rates move survived release of more hawkish-than-expected July FOMC minutes. Several participants favored an immediate hike, many saw further tightening as likely if inflation failed to fall, and some questioned whether financial conditions were sufficiently restrictive.
That makes Gold’s move more significant. Bullion didn’t need a dovish Fed to break higher — the Treasury market did the work instead. Duration repricing was powerful enough to overwhelm a Fed message that, in isolation, should have supported yields and the Dollar.
Worth noting: the minutes themselves reflect a Committee with more hawks than the 9-3 vote alone suggested, though the July meeting is now several weeks stale relative to this week’s developments.
This Was a Real-Yield Move, Not a Debasement Trade Breakeven inflation data provide clearest evidence for underlying mechanism. 10-year breakeven inflation stayed around 2.30% on both August 18 and August 19, even as nominal yields dropped sharply.
With inflation expectations unchanged, decline in nominal yields translated primarily into lower real yields—the more direct textbook support for Gold. That also argues against interpreting Wednesday’s move primarily through currency-debasement lens. Fed minutes were hardly signaling accommodation, inflation expectations did not jump, and identifiable catalyst was Treasury-driven compression in long-duration yields.
Nothing in Aug 19 price action requires a debasement explanation. For now, Gold’s rally is better explained by a specific real-yield shock.
Dollar Breakdown Confirms Gold’s Reversal Dollar chart is reinforcing same story. DXY has broken decisively below 99.41, 38.2% retracement of 95.55–101.80 rebound, strengthening case that advance from 95.55 to 101.80 completed as a three-wave corrective move.
Further decline is favored while 55-day EMA near 100.08 caps recovery, with 97.93, 61.8% retracement, next downside objective.
Gold and Dollar are therefore confirming each other from opposite directions: Gold is breaking medium-term resistance just as DXY is a key near term support. A move in DXY through 97.93 would add further support to Gold’s rally.
Gold 4,600 Is Gateway to $5,000 Gold’s own technical structure has shifted significantly. Larger fall from 5,598.75 increasingly looks to have completed as a triangle at 3,942.43. Daily MACD bullish divergence, break above 55-day EMA near 4,272, and this week’s clean break of descending medium-term trend line all strengthening reversal case.
Near-term outlook stays bullish while 4,324.23 support holds. Next decisive test is resistance cluster between 4,575.31 (38.2% retracement of 5,598.75–3,942.43 decline) and 4,604.74 (61.8% projection of 3,995.82–4,449.73 from 4,324.23).
A clean break of 4,575–4,605 zone would open 161.8% projeciton at 4,778.14 first, followed by 61.8% retracement at 4,966.14—effectively putting $5,000 directly into medium-term view.
Watch 30-Year Yield First, 10-Year Second Rates remain key confirmation. 30-year yield at 5.18% should be watched first, because Treasury buyback impact is concentrated toward long end and this maturity has led latest reversal. Sustained break below 5.18 would indicate duration repricing still has room to run.
10-year support around 4.59% is confirmation level. If 30-year breaks lower while 10-year holds 4.59, move would remain concentrated in long end—still Gold-positive, but less powerful for Dollar. A break of both would signal broader yield compression and strengthen case for DXY extending toward 97.93 while Gold challenges 4,600.
Final check is breakevens. If nominal yields continue falling while inflation expectations stay flat or ease, real yields would compress further and preserve cleanest bullish setup for Gold. If breakevens instead begin rising sharply, story would shift toward inflation repricing and become less straightforward. Track T10YIE/T30YIE alongside the yield levels themselves, not price in isolation.
For now, signal is unusually coherent: long yields are breaking lower, Dollar is breaking support, real yields are compressing and Gold has cleared its medium-term downtrend. $5,000 is not there yet, but decisive break above 4,600 would make it far more than a distant target.
Key Takeaways Gold surged 3.7% to $4,495 after the Treasury unexpectedly doubled its long-dated debt buyback size, triggering an immediate repricing in long-end yields. The move survived hawkish July FOMC minutes, confirming duration repricing, not Fed dovishness, is driving Gold’s rally. Flat 10-year breakevens around 2.30% alongside falling nominal yields point to a real-yield mechanism, not a currency-debasement trade. The DXY has broken below 99.41 support, confirming Gold’s reversal from the opposite direction and opening a path toward 97.93. A break above the 4,575-4,605 resistance cluster would open 4,778.14 and then 4,966.14, putting the $5,000 level within medium-term view.
ActionForex
ActionForex.com was set up back in 2004 with the aim to provide insightful analysis to forex traders, serving the trading community for two decades. We started providing only a daily and a mid-day report, now known as Action Insights. Gradually, we added a lot more in-house contents to the site. Technical Outlook section was expanded to cover more pairs. In addition to that, Top Movers, Heat Map, Pivot Point Charts and Pivot Meters, Action Bias and Volatility Charts, are tools used by traders from all over the world.
Index Dow Jones +0,37 % na 53539,31 b. S&P 500 +0,5 % na 7730,3 b. Nasdaq Composite +0,4 % na 26394 b.
Ve středeční seanci americké indexy korigují předchozí úterní pokles, kdy během běžné seance klesl benchmark S&P 500 o 0,7 %, blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average ztratil 0,2 % a technologicky zaměřený Nasdaq Composite klesl o 1,3 %, což je jeho nejprudší pokles od 29. července. Investory také trápí rostoucí výnosy amerických státních dluhopisů zvýšily diskontní sazbu uplatňovanou na budoucí zisky, což obzvláště silně zatížilo akcie rychle rostoucích technologických společností. Trh s dluhopisy zůstal klíčovým tématem, protože investoři se obávali inflace, fiskálních deficitů a vysokých vládních zadlužení. Výnos 30letých amerických státních dluhopisů ve středu mírně klesl poté, co v úterý vystoupal na nejvyšší úroveň od června 2007. Desetiletý výnos skončil na přibližně 4,71 %. Dnes bude také investory zajímat zápis z červencového zasedání Federálního rezervního systému, které má být zveřejněno dnes. Zápis bude určitě pod drobnohledem trhu a investorů, tj. aby všichni získali vodítka k výhledu měnové politiky poté, co tři regionální členové ( prezidenti ) Fedu nesouhlasili s rozhodnutím ponechat úrokové sazby beze změny. Dolar na páru s eurem dnes silněji ztrácí -0,67% tj. 1,1654 USD/EUR.
V centru zájmu investorů je také ropa a podle dnešního reportu od EIA zásoby surové ropy ke dni 14.8. vzrostly o 4,405 mil. barelů, když analytici předpokládali menší nárůst o 0,2 mil. barelů. Lehká ropa s oslabujícím dolarem tak přidává 0,5% a dostává se k úrovni 84,5 USD/barel. Podle analytiků vyšší ceny ropy zvyšují obavy z inflace. Situace je také nejistá ve vývoji konfliktu mezi USA a Íránem a též kolem Hormuzského průlivu. Tato situace zatím vyhovuje akciím v těžebním sektoru černého zlata a tak akcie těžebního velikána Exxon Mobil ( XOM ) přidávají o více než 1,1% a také akcie konkurenta britské skupiny BP ( BP ) posilují na tržní ceně o 1,5%. Velmi dobře si dnes vedou také akcie těžaře APA ( APA ), které přidávají více než 5,1% a také velmi dobře si vedou akcie brazilského Petrobrasu ( PBR ), jež posilují o solidních 3%. Za zmínku stojí také akcie francouzského výrobce a dodavatele těžního zařízení Schlumbergeru ( SLB ), které obchodují se ziskem cca 1% a také akcie jeho amerického konkurenta Halliburtonu ( HAL ) přidávají na tržní ceně necelých 1,5%.
Za pozornost investoru dnes určitě stojí akcie světového výrobce kosmetiky Estee Lauder Cos. ( EL ), kde společnost reportovala výsledky za 4Q. Firma překonala odhady trhu v tržbách i v očištěném zisku na akcii a ukončila sérii tří po sobě jdoucích poklesů ročních tržeb. Zároveň potvrdila výhled organických tržeb na fiskální rok 2027 a navýšila projekci očištěné provozní marže. Na základě výsledků jsou akcie ve zvýšeném zájmu investorů a posilují o solidních 17%.
Na růstové vlně se dnes také vezou akcie společnosti Target ( TGT ), která zvýšila svůj roční cíl tržeb již druhé čtvrtletí po sobě, což je potenciálním signálem pokroku v širokém plánu restrukturalizace pod vedením nového generálního ředitele Michaela Fiddelkeho. Porovnatelné tržby i očištěný zisk na akcii předčily očekávání a společnost navíc těžila z vratek cel. Firma rovněž zvýšila celoroční výhled. Akcie Target ( TGT ) dnes přidávají na tržní ceně více než 5,6%.
V centru zájmu investorů dnes nelze opominout také žlutý kov, který za přispění silně oslabujícího dolaru roste o více než 2,8% a zlato se tak dostává k úrovni 4 548 USD/Troy. unci. Tato situace nahrává do karet akciím v těžebním sektoru zlata a tak akcie amerického těžaře Newmontu ( NEM ) posilují na tržní ceně 8,5% a hned v závěsu se pohybují akcie největšího kanadského těžaře zlata Barrick Mining ( B ) se ziskem 7,1%. Za zmínku stojí také akcie známého těžaře Eldorado Gold ( EGO ), které jsou na tom podobně se ziskem cca 8,5%.
Index S&P 500 +0,5 % na 7730,3 b. Nejsilnější sektory S&P Změna Nejslabší sektory S&P Změna Zdravotní péče +3,1 % Průmysl -0,3 % Základní materiály +2,4 % Informační technologie -0,3 % Zbytná spotřeba +1,9 % Utility -0,1 % Nejsilnější akcie S&P Změna Nejslabší akcie S&P Změna Moderna (MRNA) +125 % Dell Technologies (DELL) -6,3 % Estee Lauder Cos (EL) +17 % Crowdstrike Holdings (CRWD) -6,0 % Merck (MRK) +11 % Seagate Technology Holdings (STX) -6,0 % Coinbase Global (COIN) +11 % Keysight Technologies (KEYS) -5,7 % Newmont Corp (NEM) +8,5 % Lam Research Corp (LRCX) -5,2 %
Luboš Bedrník
Fio banka, a.s.
Prohlášení
Gold price surged over 3% on Wednesday, driven by sharp fall in the US dollar, on primarily dovish outlook for the Fed monetary policy action.
Fresh gains show strong attempts for eventual break above eight-day range, defined by $4310 floor, reinforced by daily Ichimoku cloud base ($4358) and range tops at $4440 zone, though several upticks failed to register daily close above Fibo barrier at $4416 (50% retracement of $4889/$3942 bear-leg).
Sustained break higher to generate signal of bullish continuation, with immediate targets at $4509 (200DMA) and $4527 (Fibo 61.8%), while stronger acceleration would focus $4600 (round-figure) and $4666 (Fibo 76.4%).
Daily studies firmed following multiple DMA bull-crosses, strong bullish momentum, while thick daily cloud underpins.
Broken barriers at $4440 (range top) and $4416 (50% retracement) revert to solid supports which should hold potential dips and keep fresh bullish structure intact.
The information contained in this document was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed herein are in good faith, but are subject to change without notice. No liability accepted whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this document.
COSTA MESA, Calif., Aug. 19, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Gold.com, Inc. (NYSE: GOLD) (“Gold.com” or the “Company”), a fully integrated alternative assets platform that offers an extensive range of precious metals, numismatic coins, and collectibles to consumers, collectors, and institutional clients worldwide, will hold a conference call on Wednesday, September 2, 2026, at 4:30 p.m.
Overview: Based on Arc Cycle Analysis applied to the 2h chart, Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar is interacting with the 0.618 Resistance Arc within the current Arc Cycle. Price is testing this Resistance Arc, suggesting the potential for a breakout toward the next Resistance Arc.
Metric
Reading
Market Bias
Bullish Acceleration
Preferred Scenario
Potential Breakout / Advance Toward the Next Resistance Arc
Primary Target Zone
4,560
Scenario Invalidation
Sustained close below 4,330
Current Arc Level
Resistance Arc (0.618)
Cycle Status
Testing Resistance Arc
Arc Integrity
Weakening
Market outlookPrice is testing the 0.618 Resistance Arc, where continued buying pressure could result in a breakout toward the next Resistance Arc. A sustained breakout above the Resistance Arc would support continued movement toward the next Resistance Arc (0.786 Arc).
Conversely, failure to achieve a sustained 2h close above the Resistance Arc would invalidate the bullish scenario and could shift the outlook toward the next Support Arc.
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The precious metal could rise in tandem with Treasury yields. The BoJ’s accelerated tightening will support the yen. The new Fed Chair wants the markets to do the central bank’s job for him. If the number of supporters of his position increases, the chances of a rate hike in 2026 will fall, weakening the greenback. Recently, the US dollar has retreated amid concerns that the July FOMC meeting minutes will show that Kevin Warsh’s approach is working.
His passivity is one of the drivers behind the rally in long-term Treasury yields to their highest levels since 2007. Other reasons include concerns about the budget deficit, rising inflation due to the conflict in the Middle East, and the diversion of funds towards artificial intelligence. To finance AI-related expenditures, companies are issuing bonds, diverting capital from the Treasury market and raising Treasury yields.
Surprisingly, rising interest rates on debt are not preventing gold from continuing its climb. Even though there are occasional slumps, such as the one seen on 18 August, which was the sharpest fall in nearly a month, investors believe that the rise in Treasury bond yields has more to do with selloffs driven by fears over the budget deficit than with hopes for the strength of the US economy. Indeed, the Congressional Budget Office forecasts that debt service costs will rise from an average of 2.1% of GDP over the past half-century to 3.3% in 2026 and 4.6% in 2036. Concerns about US financial stability are helping the metal to rise.
Additionally, according to a Bank of America survey, the proportion of investors who consider gold undervalued has risen to its highest level since March 2023.
Other currencies have capitalised on the weakness of the US dollar. The bulls failed to break through the resistance level at 159.5 on USDJPY, and the pair retreated. According to Mizuho Financial Group, the Bank of Japan will raise its overnight rate from 1% to 1.25% as early as September, and will then accelerate the cycle of monetary tightening, taking a new step every three months rather than every six. The main reason for this is that borrowing costs remain negative, whilst inflation stands at 1.6%.
The yen is also being supported by the fact that yields on Japanese government bonds are rising faster than those on US bonds. They have reached their highest level since 1996. This is contributing to capital repatriation and a fall in the USDJPY exchange rate.
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FxPro is an award-winning online broker offering Contracts for Difference (CFDs) on forex, futures, spot indices, shares, spot metals and spot energies. FxPro serves clients in over 150 countries worldwide and offers multilingual customer support 24/5. Trading CFDs involves significant risk of loss.
The new Fed Chair wants the markets to do the central bank’s job for him. If the number of supporters of his position increases, the chances of a rate hike in 2026 will fall, weakening the greenback. Recently, the US dollar has retreated amid concerns that the July FOMC meeting minutes will show that Kevin Warsh’s approach is working.
His passivity is one of the drivers behind the rally in long-term Treasury yields to their highest levels since 2007. Other reasons include concerns about the budget deficit, rising inflation due to the conflict in the Middle East, and the diversion of funds towards artificial intelligence. To finance AI-related expenditures, companies are issuing bonds, diverting capital from the Treasury market and raising Treasury yields.
Surprisingly, rising interest rates on debt are not preventing gold from continuing its climb. Even though there are occasional slumps, such as the one seen on 18 August, which was the sharpest fall in nearly a month, investors believe that the rise in Treasury bond yields has more to do with selloffs driven by fears over the budget deficit than with hopes for the strength of the US economy. Indeed, the Congressional Budget Office forecasts that debt service costs will rise from an average of 2.1% of GDP over the past half-century to 3.3% in 2026 and 4.6% in 2036. Concerns about US financial stability are helping the metal to rise.
Additionally, according to a Bank of America survey, the proportion of investors who consider gold undervalued has risen to its highest level since March 2023.
Other currencies have capitalised on the weakness of the US dollar. The bulls failed to break through the resistance level at 159.5 on USDJPY, and the pair retreated. According to Mizuho Financial Group, the Bank of Japan will raise its overnight rate from 1% to 1.25% as early as September, and will then accelerate the cycle of monetary tightening, taking a new step every three months rather than every six. The main reason for this is that borrowing costs remain negative, whilst inflation stands at 1.6%.
The yen is also being supported by the fact that yields on Japanese government bonds are rising faster than those on US bonds. They have reached their highest level since 1996. This is contributing to capital repatriation and a fall in the USDJPY exchange rate.
Summary: Gold gains as dollar weakness, fiscal worries and rising Japanese yields support the metal and the yen, while Fed and BoJ policy expectations steer markets.
Gold prices rose in Saudi Arabia on Wednesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 524.66 Saudi Riyals (SAR) per gram, up compared with the SAR 523.18 it cost on Tuesday.
The price for Gold increased to SAR 6,119.67 per tola from SAR 6,102.31 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in SAR
1 Gram
524.66
10 Grams
5,246.76
Tola
6,119.67
Troy Ounce
16,318.80
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Saudi Arabia by adapting international prices (USD/SAR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices rose in India on Wednesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 13,394.54 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, up compared with the INR 13,343.30 it cost on Tuesday.
The price for Gold increased to INR 156,230.40 per tola from INR 155,633.60 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in INR
1 Gram
13,394.54
10 Grams
133,935.20
Tola
156,230.40
Troy Ounce
416,615.20
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold.com (GOLD - Free Report) closed at $41.84 in the latest trading session, marking a -7.82% move from the prior day. The stock fell short of the S&P 500, which registered a loss of 0.69% for the day. Elsewhere, the Dow lost 0.22%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq lost 1.33%.
Prior to today's trading, shares of the precious metals trading company had gained 20.81% outpaced the Finance sector's gain of 2.32% and the S&P 500's gain of 3.96%.
Analysts and investors alike will be keeping a close eye on the performance of Gold.com in its upcoming earnings disclosure. On that day, Gold.com is projected to report earnings of $0.96 per share, which would represent year-over-year growth of 26.32%. Alongside, our most recent consensus estimate is anticipating revenue of $7.76 billion, indicating a 209.04% upward movement from the same quarter last year.
In terms of the entire fiscal year, the Zacks Consensus Estimates predict earnings of $5.31 per share and a revenue of $28.27 billion, indicating changes of +144.7% and +157.52%, respectively, from the former year.
It is also important to note the recent changes to analyst estimates for Goldcom. Recent revisions tend to reflect the latest near-term business trends. Consequently, upward revisions in estimates express analysts' positivity towards the business operations and its ability to generate profits.
Our research suggests that these changes in estimates have a direct relationship with upcoming stock price performance. To exploit this, we've formed the Zacks Rank, a quantitative model that includes these estimate changes and presents a viable rating system.
The Zacks Rank system, spanning from #1 (Strong Buy) to #5 (Strong Sell), boasts an impressive track record of outperformance, audited externally, with #1 ranked stocks yielding an average annual return of +25% since 1988. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate has remained unchanged. Gold.com presently features a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold).
Looking at its valuation, Gold.com is holding a Forward P/E ratio of 12.5. For comparison, its industry has an average Forward P/E of 11.81, which means Gold.com is trading at a premium to the group.
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$4,311 Defines Downside Risk Last week’s higher swing low at $4,311 is key support since a decline below it puts gold in a position to possibly test lower support levels. Several potential support areas stand out if a deeper pullback occurs. The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement is at $4,273 and supported by an uptrend line. A bullish reversal signal occurred during the recent advance above the lower swing high of $4,203 from early July, and it now may represent support. Then there is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the prior advance at $4,167. These levels provide progressively lower areas where buyers could attempt to regain control if $4,311 fails.
200-Day Moving Average Holds Bigger Clue The current advance is the first notable pullback to test the 200-day moving average as resistance since gold broke below it in early June. Therefore, signs of resistance are anticipated on the first approach. However, given the signs of sustained strength in the current rally, there is also the possibility that the 200-day moving average is reclaimed. There has been only one leg up from the recent bottom so far, and a measured move for a second leg up before a notable pullback would suggest a target clearly above the 200-day moving average. That possibility keeps the bullish case alive despite Tuesday’s reversal, making $4,311 the key level to watch as the consolidation resolves.
As the week unfolds, gold dynamics have been defined by prolonged consolidation. Over the last 5 sessions, XAU/USD has barely registered an average variation of 1.00%, lacking clear direction and cementing a strong neutral bias. This behavior contrasts with previous weeks, where the precious metal saw swings exceeding 3.00%. This new sideways phase is largely due to the ceiling gold has hit amid sustained bond market behavior and the wait for the Federal Reserve minutes, which could impact its substitute markets. Unless a heavier fundamental catalyst emerges, this indecision is likely to continue dominating price action in the short term.
What to Expect from the Federal Reserve Minutes?
Tomorrow, the US central bank will release its meeting minutes, an event where the market will look for details on the latest policy discussions. Investors will closely scrutinize whether several members considered raising interest rates or just how concerned the Fed is about inflationary pressures stemming from energy prices.
Currently, the CMEGROUP probability tool reflects a 65% chance that the benchmark rate will hold steady at 3.75% during the September 16 decision. Furthermore, there is over a 50% probability that this same pause scenario will repeat at the late-October meeting. This suggests the market is pricing in a cautious Federal Reserve in the near term. However, this expectation could shift if the minutes reveal heightened concerns over inflation and if a significant number of members lean toward evaluating future rate hikes.
Source: CMEGROUP
This event is crucial for the US 10-year Treasury bond market, one of the main substitute assets for gold. Despite expectations of a monetary pause, yields remain above the 4.7% zone, near their 2026 highs, cementing the appeal of these instruments over the precious metal.
Source: TradingEconomics
In this context, the minutes will be decisive for both fixed income and the US dollar. If the document opens the door to a more hawkish Fed, both markets could gain traction. A strengthening of these alternative assets would diminish gold's appeal as a safe haven, which could stall the recovery attempts seen in recent weeks and trigger a potential drop in short-term demand.
In fact, activity in the gold market has already started to cool off in the sessions leading up to the release. Trading volume for metal futures on August 17 stood at 141,000 contracts, a figure far below the more than 200,000 daily contracts seen earlier in the month. This sustained drop in volume reflects investor caution ahead of potential central bank signals and suggests a lack of appetite for the asset while the monetary outlook remains up in the air.
Source: CMEGROUP
With this in mind, gold is likely to remain capped by expectations surrounding its substitute markets, maintaining its neutral stance in the near term. However, if the minutes confirm a more restrictive tone and bonds and the dollar gain traction, fresh selling pressure could be unleashed on XAU/USD over the coming weeks.
Gold Technical Outlook
Source: StoneX, Tradingview
Bullish momentum faces a slowdown: Average gold price action reflects a clear phase of indecision. Rather than attempting to form a new uptrend line, the price is currently consolidating. As long as key levels remain unbroken, this sideways range could cement itself as the dominant structure in the upcoming sessions.
RSI: The RSI line shows noticeable flattening behavior, reflecting a loss of momentum from the bullish bias seen in previous sessions. If this behavior persists, the indicator will confirm the neutral phase currently dominating the market.
MACD: The MACD histogram remains near the neutral 0 line, suggesting that short-term moving average momentum is in balance. This technical reading reinforces the expectation that indecision could remain a primary factor for gold.
Key Levels to Watch:
$4,500 (Crucial Resistance): A major bullish barrier aligning with the 200-period simple moving average. A sustained close above this level could mark a structural shift on the chart and pave the way for a more prominent bullish bias in the coming sessions.
$4,378 (Nearby Barrier): The current neutral zone where price action has stalled over the last two weeks. It acts as a key retracement level; if the price fails to break cleanly away from this area, sideways trading could extend in the short term.
$3,984 (Critical Support): Matches the 2026 lows and stands as the chart's most important support level. A drop to this level could reignite a bearish bias and breathe new life into the downtrend line that dominated the technical structure for weeks.
Written by Julian Pineda, CFA, CMT – Market Analyst
Daily Spot Gold (XAU/USD) Daily Spot Gold (XAUUSD) is edging lower on Tuesday. The main trend is up, but traders are struggling to take out $4449.83 to reaffirm the uptrend. The trend will turn down on a move through the last swing bottom at $4311.04.
The long-term range is the April 17 main top at $4891.54 and the June 30 main bottom at $3942.10. Its 50% level at $4416.82 has been providing resistance for six straight sessions. Additional resistance is the 200-day moving average at $4507.45. The longer-term bulls are hoping for a breakout over this indicator in order to draw in the institutions.
The short-term range is $3942.10 to $4449.83. If the trend changes to down then its retracement zone at $4195.96 to $4136.05 along with the 50-day moving average at $4150.57 will become the primary target zone.
What to Watch The long bond is running this trade. Gold has the softer dollar and the lower hike odds and neither one has been enough to push through six sessions of resistance. Crude back above $91 is feeding the same fiscal and inflation story that has the 30-year at a 19-year high. FOMC minutes Wednesday can either confirm that the three July dissenters were alone or show the committee is more worried than the vote suggested.
Gold is stuck between a front end that favors buyers and a long end that will not let them through. The 200-day overhead is where the trade changes. The swing bottom below is where it breaks. The bond market picks the direction.
If you’d like to know more about how to trade gold, please visit our educational area.
All this month USD has been getting weaker, and this has helped the price of Gold and Silver.
However, that’s not the whole story.
In today’s Market Outlook, let’s take a look at Forex trading on Gold, XAUUSD, Silver, XAGUSD, GBPUSD, EURGBP, WTI and Brent Crude Oil.
There are 6 reasons that investors are heading to gold as a safe haven:
US fiscal deficits are increasing, and political turmoil isn’t helping.
Treasury supply of T-bills and investors are becoming increasingly nervous about the US bond market.
Inflation, which is a direct result of crazy tariffs and energy costs because of the Iran war.
Geopolitical risk is still high, not just in the Middle East.
Diversification away from US assets is important for many investors for financial and political reasons.
Many central banks are changing their FX reserve holdings from USD and going to other currencies and gold.
Many analysts are eyeing $4,500 soon and $5,000 later in the year.
This may actually get worse after tomorrow’s FOMC, so keep an eye on the economic news.
Also, we see UK CPI tomorrow, so watch your calendars and some News Catalyst Fade moves on GBP pairs.
You will note this huge dip in EURGBP caused by a US Treasury report late last night.
Also, as we saw on the calendar, yesterday’s UK claimant count was positive for GBP, and our indicators caught the point of reversal here.
On other GBP pairs, we see GBPUSD in an uptrend retracing toward the lower trendline, so we will wait to see if our indicators give us confirmation.
And, let’s take a look at Crude Oil.
As we try to follow trends, it becomes difficult with the turmoil between the US and Iran and the very restricted number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
Also, the latest jump is based on yesterday’s violence in Lebanon, so the price of oil isn’t just being dictated by the war in Iran.
Just keep your eye on the news regarding peace talks and threats of more aggression.
Gold prices fell in Philippines on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 8,708.93 Philippine Pesos (PHP) per gram, down compared with the PHP 8,756.55 it cost on Monday.
The price for Gold decreased to PHP 101,579.90 per tola from PHP 102,134.70 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in PHP
1 Gram
8,708.93
10 Grams
87,089.84
Tola
101,579.90
Troy Ounce
270,876.80
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Philippines by adapting international prices (USD/PHP) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices fell in Pakistan on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 39,222.46 Pakistani Rupees (PKR) per gram, down compared with the PKR 39,439.59 it cost on Monday.
The price for Gold decreased to PKR 457,483.60 per tola from PKR 460,015.60 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in PKR
1 Gram
39,222.46
10 Grams
392,224.60
Tola
457,483.60
Troy Ounce
1,219,921.00
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Pakistan by adapting international prices (USD/PKR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Indian rupee intervention returns as USD/INR hovers near all-time highUKMTO report a vessel hit by a projectile while sailing out of the Strait of Hormuz.Analysts say that a surprise China LPR cut cannot be ruled out this weekBHP CEO plays down Canada uranium talk, stays focused on four pillarsWestpac says dollar's structural headwinds outweigh recent resilience, see EUR/USD and GBP/USD higherING says heavy tone in Treasuries has further to run as truce lapsesICYMI: ETF flows return to gold as Saxo flags 289-tonne central bank demandAustralian consumer sentiment rises 6% to 88.9 but stays deep in pessimismPBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.7905 (vs. estimate at 6.7452)Goldman calls September Fed hike very unlikely as inflation easesChina unveils nine-department plan to boost county-level consumptionPBOC seen shifting to overnight reverse repos as core liquidity toolICYMI: Wells Fargo cuts 2026 gold target to $4,900-5,100, still bullish overallGold nears $4,500 resistance as central bank buying meets fading Fed hike betsJoint US-Japan intervention loses grip as USD/JPY climbs back above 159Morgan Stanley targets EUR/AUD at 1.53, backs Aussie dollar carry tradeUBS stays constructive on equities as Fed hike case weakens on soft dataJackson Hole hype outruns Warsh playbook of saying as little as possibleOil up, a packed 24 hours. Iran shifts to fully offensive posture as Trump threatens to bomb Oman over Hormuz.US stock indices closed lower on the day. Declines are led by the S&P/DowinvestingLive Americas FX news wrap 17 AugSummary:
UKMTO reported a vessel was struck while transiting the Strait of Hormuz, sustaining engine room damage and a crew casualty; further detail on the attack, including attribution and the extent of casualties, remains unconfirmedThe US diesel crack, the premium of diesel futures over WTI, hit a record $102.20 a barrel, with agricultural and shipping demand adding to strain from Iran and Ukraine-linked supply disruptionsThe 10-year JGB yield rose to around 2.945%, its highest level since September 1996; the 5-year yield was also reported up, to 2.18% and its highest ever.Foreign holdings of US Treasuries fell to $9.299 trillion in June, led by declines from Japan, the UK and ChinaThe RBI is seen selling US dollars to support the rupee as USD/INR trades near record highsAsian equities were mixed, with Japan's Nikkei and Topix under pressure and Chinese mainland indices reported lower into the midday break; South Korea's KOSPI move needs confirmation given conflicting reports on directionOil markets found renewed support Monday after UKMTO reported a vessel was struck while transiting the Strait of Hormuz, sustaining damage to its engine room and a crew casualty. The incident adds to an already fragile picture in the strait following the lapse of the 60-day US-Iran memorandum of understanding, with the market continuing to price a lack of near-term de-escalation.
The US diesel crack, the premium of diesel futures over West Texas Intermediate crude, hit a record $102.20 a barrel, as global supply disruptions tied to the wars in Iran and Ukraine collided with peak agricultural consumption season. Refining margins at that level typically flow through to broader costs over time, with agriculture and shipping both reliant on diesel-powered equipment and heating oil demand set to add further pressure heading into winter. Higher refining costs are expected to filter through to consumers and businesses via transport and logistics costs in the coming weeks and months.
Elevated bond yields remained a global theme beyond the US. Japan's 10-year government bond yield rose to around 2.95%, its highest level since September 1996, while the 5-year yield was also reported higher on the session, extending a recent run of multi-decade highs across the JGB curve. In the US, data released after regular trading hours showed foreign holdings of Treasuries fell to $9.299 trillion in June, led by declines from Japan, the UK and China. The data series is volatile month to month, but the latest reading adds to the case, at the margin, for continued upward pressure on yields.
Major currencies traded relatively steadily. NZD was heqavy, with wekaer China data yesterday cited. The Reserve Bank of India is seen selling US dollars to support the rupee, with USD/INR trading near record highs, extending a pattern of periodic intervention through 2026 amid persistent foreign equity outflows, elevated oil prices, and ongoing US tariff friction tied to India's Russian oil purchases.
Asian equities were mixed. Japan's Nikkei and Topix indices slid, while South Korea's KOSPI showed early strength before a later pullback. Chinese mainland benchmarks were reported lower into the midday break, with the Shanghai Composite, Shenzhen Component and ChiNext all pointing to a weaker session.
Gold fund flows have turned positive after months of outflows, while Goldman says private activity is becoming more closely tied to gold prices. Goldman Sachs says gold-fund flows have “picked up meaningfully after seeing net outflows for much of this year.”
Its analysis also finds that the relationship between fund activity and gold prices has strengthened since the start of 2025 as private-sector buying and selling increased.
Private buyers matter more than they did That observation describes a changing market structure; it is not a new Goldman price target and it does not prove that flows alone caused the latest move.
The Goldman series covers mutual funds and related investment products, so it measures one defined channel of demand rather than every physical, futures or official-sector transaction.
Gold was trading near $4,426.70 late on Monday, up about 1.26% on the day and more than 10% over one month.
Gold daily closing prices in US Dollars over three months, with 20-day and 50-day moving averages. The metal has still fallen over three and six months, making the renewed fund demand notable against a volatile recent path.
ERUK market data put gold's one-year gain near 33%, but its 2026 advance at only about 2.5%.
That contrast leaves long-term holders with substantial gains while showing why a renewed private-fund bid can matter after months of uneven momentum.
BofA's flow data corroborate the shift.
“Gold: $6.3bn inflow, biggest since Jan '26,” the bank reported, adding that precious-metals funds had received inflows for six consecutive weeks.
In the same weekly cross-asset tally, cash drew $25.4bn, bonds $23.8bn, stocks $16.1bn and crypto $0.3bn.
Gold therefore remained smaller than the main cash, bond and equity channels, but its inflow stood out against both crypto and its own recent history.
BofA measures the latest weekly surge; Goldman's analysis instead shows how private fund activity is becoming more closely associated with price.
The current rally offers an immediate test of whether that association persists.
The gold price advance in August has taken it above $4,400, while Monday's move put the market close to the month's high.
The stronger correlation is backward-looking, so it records how fund activity and prices have moved together rather than forecasting either direction.
The change is one of market participation, not a new price target.
Another large inflow would support the case for a lasting private-sector return; a reversal would leave the $6.3bn week looking like an August outlier.
Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.
Gold (XAU/USD) price rises over 1% on Monday amid overall US Dollar (USD) weakness and lower US Treasury yields, following last week’s soft inflation data that reduced speculation of a hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed), . The XAU/USD trades at $4,422 after bouncing off daily lows of $4,367.
XAU/USD advances as softer inflation trims Fed bets despite rising yieldsThe US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the buck’s value against six currencies, is down 0.37% at 99.53, a tailwind for the precious metal. The US 10-year T-note yield, although rising over 2.5 basis points to 4.718%, caps Gold’s advance towards the $4,500 mark.
US Treasury yields at the long end of the curve, the 30-year, are reaching 2007 highs. Bloomberg reported that it reflects “investor angst over the surging national debt, a flood of long-dated bond sales and inflation that’s been stuck” above the Federal Reserve’s 2% for the past five years.
Last week’s consumer- and producer-side inflation triggered an investor reaction to trim Fed-hawkish bets. Fears that prices will not resume declines in the near term are fueled by the lack of progress in US-Iran talks in the Middle East.
Crude prices remain on the front seat, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) surging over 2.30% to $84.35 per barrel.
Mixed geopolitical signals suggest that Iran is shifting its policy from defensive to an offensive one. The Iranian Foreign Ministry stated that the “Islamabad agreement has not collapsed and the possibility of returning to it remains,” via Al Arabiya.
In the meantime, Investors see a nearly 69% chance that the Fed will hold rates unchanged, while the odds for the December meeting continue to price in a 66% chance of a 25-basis-point rate hike, according to Prime Terminal.
Source: Prime TerminalMarkets are now looking forward to the Fed's July meeting minutes, set to be released on Wednesday, to gain more insight into policymakers' monetary stance.
XAU/USD technical analysis: Gold surpasses the 100-day SMA, eyes on $4,500Gold price has reclaimed the $4,400 figure and is on its way to clearing the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,386, as part of a confluence of technical levels, which capped bullion’s price in the short term.
Worth noting that momentum is bullish, as depicted in the Relative Strength Index (RSI). This confirms that the uptrend is in place, though traders must clear the $4,500 milestone, followed by the 200-day SMA at $4,506. On further strength, the next resistance is the $4,600 mark.
For a bearish reversal, Gold needs to drop below the 100-day SMA, followed by the July 6 high at $4,202, followed by the 50-day SMA at $4,146 and $4,100.
Gold daily chart Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Gold (XAU/USD): Arc cycle analysisOverview: Based on Arc Cycle Analysis applied to the 30-minute chart, Gold (XAUUSD) is interacting with the 0.618 Resistance Arc within the current Arc Cycle. Bullish momentum has faded near this boundary, indicating that the upper Arc continues to cap upside expansion
Metric
Reading
Market Bias
Neutral-Bearish
Preferred Scenario
Potential Rejection / Decline Toward Next Support Arc
Primary Target Zone
4,415
Scenario Invalidation
Sustained close above $4,428
Current Arc Level
Resistance Arc (0.618)
Cycle Status
Testing Resistance Arc
Arc Integrity
Strong
Market outlookThe 0.618 Arc continues to act as a primary resistance boundary, capping upside expansion. Bullish attempts have stalled beneath the Resistance Arc 0.618, indicating that seller defense remains intact at this cyclical threshold.
If the 0.618 Resistance Arc holds firm, a corrective decline toward the 4,415 becomes the primary scenario.
Conversely, a sustained 30-minute candle close above 4,428 would invalidate the bearish setup, opening the path toward the outer Resistance Arc 0.786.
All things being equal, this is a market that I think continues to be very noisy and asks a lot of questions with the idea of the Middle East and all the conflict going on there, whether or not there’s going to be some type of resolution.
The interest rate markets, which are still elevated, and then of course what’s going on with the Federal Reserve. A lot of people are starting to question what we once thought about the Federal Reserve and its monetary policy trajectory, which is starting to move markets overall, not just here.
Bullish Flag, $4,500 Resistance, and the Golden Cross We’ll have to wait and see whether or not this breaks out to the upside, but the $4,500 level is definitely an area that I think a lot of people are watching to see where we go next. Ultimately, we are trying to decide that right now I think.
The recent technical analysis suggests that maybe we’re forming a bullish flag, and gold, at least from a sentiment standpoint, seems to be picking up from everything I’ve seen.
The 50-day EMA is trying to reach above the 200-day EMA, kicking off the so-called Golden Cross, which is a longer-term buy-and-hold signal for some longer-term investors.
