BNY’s Geoff Yu notes World Gold Council (WGC) data showing a sharp rebound in central bank Gold purchases to a record 289 tons in Q2, led by Poland and China, after a very weak Q1. Despite this, the council expects official sector buying to ease and fall below 2025 levels, while ETF outflows and weak mining flows point to fragile investor confidence in Gold prices.
Official buying rebound but outlook softer"The World Gold Council said central bank gold buying in Q1 was much weaker than previously estimated, with purchases of only 57 tons, down 187 tons from the prior view and the weakest start to a year in more than a decade."
"Demand then rebounded sharply in Q2, with net buying reaching a record 289 tons, led by Poland and China."
"Despite that recovery, the council expects central bank gold purchases to ease this year and likely fall below 2025 levels."
"The report also noted Q2 outflows from gold backed exchange traded funds, softer bar and coin demand, weaker jewelry demand, and lower recycled supply."
"Mining and metal sector flows remain weak in iFlow, indicating poor investor confidence in price levels."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Vancouver, British Columbia--(Newsfile Corp. - July 30, 2026) - Rua Gold Inc. (TSX: RUA) (NZX: RGI) (OTCQX: NZAUF) (FSE: X9R) ("RUA GOLD" or the "Company") is pleased to announce that the Auld Creek Project, located in the Reefton Goldfield, New Zealand, has been has been approved for referreal to the process established under the Fast Track Approvals Act 2024. This represents another positive step in the Company's transition from explorer to mine developer.
Highlights:
In December 2024, the New Zealand Government enacted legislation establishing a one-stop-shop Fast-Track Approvals regime to accelerate projects with significant regional or national benefits.
RUA GOLD established a dedicated project team in late 2025 to advance permitting activities and support the Fast-Track application and key mining studies.
The Fast-Track process provides a streamlined pathway through which RUA GOLD can seek all key approvals, including mining permits, resource consents, water-use permissions, and wildlife approvals.
The Company acknowledges the continued strong support of Ngāti Waewae, the Reefton and wider West Coast communities, and government stakeholders.
The Company remains on track to submit its substantive Fast-Track application in Q4 2026. If the application is successful, the Auld Creek Project would be fully permitted by mid-2027, allowing early works to commence.
RUA GOLD completed a Preliminary Economic Assessment (“PEA”) in early 2026 and expects to complete a Preliminary Feasibility Study (“PFS”) in Q4 2026.July 30, 2026
Simon Delander, VP Risk, Stakeholder, Regulatory Affairs, commented: "We are very encouraged that the Auld Creek Project has been accepted into New Zealand's Fast-Track Approvals process. This is an important milestone that reduces permitting risk and provides greater certainty as we advance the Project toward development.
Supported by a team of independent advisors, we have been progressing a broad range of environmental, economic, social impact, mining and processing studies in preparation for submitting our substantive fast-track application later this year.
We have also undertaken extensive engagement with communities, stakeholders and regulators, completing more than 800 engagements. This engagement is helping stakeholders understand the Project and informing how its potential impacts will be managed."
Figure 1: Overview of the Reefton Goldfield.
To view an enhanced version of this graphic, please visit:
https://images.newsfilecorp.com/files/10755/307265_69752eb8d493ea8a_007full.jpg
Figure 2: Conceptual Mine design of Auld Creek
To view an enhanced version of this graphic, please visit:
https://images.newsfilecorp.com/files/10755/307265_ruafig2.jpg
FAST TRACK APPLICATION PROCESS
The Company is actively preparing a substantive Fast-Track application for the Auld Creek Project under the Fast-Track Approvals Act 2024. The application includes a comprehensive suite of technical reports and assessment of environmental effects, supported by social impact assessments, and economic studies.
These studies incorporate extensive consultation with local stakeholders and input from leading environmental, social, and technical experts across multiple disciplines, including water quality, ecology, landscape and visual effects, air quality, traffic, socio-economic impacts, geochemistry, erosion and sediment control infrastructure, and mine closure planning.
In parallel, RUA GOLD has completed a PEA in early 2026, with a PFS now underway and targeted for completion in Q4 2026. The Auld Creek PFS is being undertaken by global mining consultancies Mining One and Pitch Black.
The Auld Creek Project is proposed as an underground mining operation with an initial mine life of eight years. The Project is expected to employ approximately 200 people and contribute an estimated NZ$240 million to the regional economy. The longer term plan is to establish a regional processing hub capable of supporting future mining developments in the Reefton Goldfield.
THE FAST TRACK APPROVALS BILL
New Zealand's Fast-Track legisation allows for streamlined permitting for the Auld Creek Project and the acceleration of development timelines. The legislation establishes a "one-stop shop" process through which approvals otherwise required under multiple statutes—including the Resource Management Act, Conservation Act, Wildlife Act and Crown Minerals Act—can be considered together. More information can be found at www.fasttrack.govt.nz/.
ABOUT RUA GOLD
RUA GOLD is an exploration company, strategically focused on New Zealand. With decades of expertise, our team has successfully taken major discoveries into producing world-class mines across multiple continents. The team is now focused on maximizing the asset potential of RUA GOLD's two highly prospective high-grade gold projects.
The Company controls the Reefton Gold District as the dominant landholder in the Reefton Goldfield on New Zealand's South Island with over 120,000 hectares of tenements, in a district that historically produced over 2Moz of gold grading between 9 and 50g/t1.
The Company's Glamorgan Project solidifies RUA GOLD's position as a leading high-grade gold explorer on New Zealand's North Island. This highly prospective project is located within the North Islands' Hauraki district, a region that has produced an impressive 15Moz of gold and 60Moz of silver2. Glamorgan is adjacent to OceanaGold Corporation's biggest gold mining project, Wharekirauponga.
For further information, please refer to the Company's disclosure record on SEDAR+ at www.sedarplus.ca.
RUA GOLD Contact
This news release includes certain statements that may be deemed "forward-looking statements". All statements in this new release, other than statements of historical facts, that address events or developments that the Company expects to occur, are forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are statements that are not historical facts and are generally, but not always, identified by the words "expects", "plans", "anticipates", "believes", "intends", "estimates", "projects", "potential" and similar expressions, or that events or conditions "will", "would", "may", "could" or "should" occur and specifically include statements regarding, without limitation: the result of the Company's Fast-Track application; the timing and results of a pre-feasibility study; the anticipated employment and economic benefits of the Auld Creek Project; the timing and result of any mining permit application; and the Company's strategies, expectations, planned operations or future actions, including but not limited to the Company's proposed underground mine operations at its Auld Creek prospect. Although the Company believes the expectations expressed in such forward-looking statements are based on reasonable assumptions, such statements are not guarantees of future performance and actual results may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements.
Investors are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and actual results or developments may differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements. A variety of inherent risks, uncertainties and factors, many of which are beyond the Company's control, affect the operations, performance and results of the Company and its business, and could cause actual events or results to differ materially from estimated o anticipated events or results expressed or implied by forward looking statements. Some of these risks, uncertainties and factors include: general business, economic, competitive, political and social uncertainties; risks related to the effects of the Russia-Ukraine war and the war in the Middle East; risks related to climate change; operational risks in exploration, delays or changes in plans with respect to exploration projects or capital expenditures; the actual results of current exploration activities; conclusions of economic evaluations; changes in project parameters as plans continue to be refined; changes in labour costs and other costs and expenses or equipment or processes to operate as anticipated, accidents, labour disputes and other risks of the mining industry, including but not limited to environmental hazards, flooding or unfavorable operating conditions and losses, insurrection or war, delays in obtaining governmental approvals or financing, and commodity prices. This list is not exhaustive of the factors that may affect any of the Company's forward-looking statements and reference should also be made to the Company's short form base shelf prospectus dated July 11, 2024, and the documents incorporated by reference therein, filed under its SEDAR+ profile at www.sedarplus.ca for a description of additional risk factors.
Forward-looking statements are based on the assumptions, beliefs, estimates and opinions of the Company's management on the date the statements are made, which include but are not limited to: to the accuracy of the Company's current mineral resource estimates; that there will be no material adverse change affecting the Company or its properties; the duration and effect of global and local inflation; geo-political uncertainties on the Company's workforce, business, operations and financial condition; the expected trends in mineral prices, inflation and currency exchange rates; that all required approvals and permits will be obtained for the Company's business and operations on acceptable terms including for underground mining at Auld Creek; that there will be no significant disruptions affecting the Company's operations and such other assumptions herein. Except as required by applicable securities laws, the Company undertakes no obligation to update these forward-looking statements in the event that management's beliefs, estimates or opinions, or other factors, should change.
1 Technical Report on the Reefton Project, New Zealand, with an effective date of February 27, 2026 available under the Company's SEDAR+ profile at www.sedarplus.ca.
2 Christie, A., Simpson, M., Barker, R., and Braithwaite, R. 2019. Exploration for epithermal Au-Ag deposits in New Zealand: history and strategy. New Zealand Journal of Geology and Geophysics, 62:1, 414-441. NI 43-101 Technical Report, Waihi District Pre-feasibility Study, New Zealand. OceanaGold Corporation, Report Date: December 11, 2024.
To view the source version of this press release, please visit https://www.newsfilecorp.com/release/307265
Source: Rua Gold Inc.
Ready to Announce with Confidence? Send us a message and a member of our TMX Newsfile team will contact you to discuss your needs.
Gold (XAU/USD) remains trapped in its month-old $4,000-$4,200 range as the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) new era of limited forward guidance fails to shake the precious metal out of its sideways grind after policymakers left interest rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%.
At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades around $4,080 during European trading hours on Thursday, recovering from an intraday low of $4,028.
Gold briefly pushed above $4,100 after the Fed kept rates steady, prompting traders to unwind positions built around the possibility of a surprise hike and triggering a sharp pullback in the US Dollar and front-end US Treasury yields.
However, Gold struggled to hold its gains as longer-dated Treasury yields advanced. The 30-year yield climbed above 5.20% for the first time since 2007 as markets zeroed in on Chair Kevin Warsh’s firm stance on inflation and three dissenting votes in favour of a 25-basis-point (bps) rate hike.
While the Fed’s limited forward guidance has left traders guessing about the next policy move, the CME FedWatch Tool still shows a 63% probability of a rate hike in September as the war in the Middle East keeps energy-driven inflation risks elevated.
Those hawkish expectations keep a lid on XAU/USD’s recovery despite a softer US Dollar. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, trades around 100.67, near its lowest level in two weeks.
Attention now turns to the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, due at 12:30 GMT. The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge could influence Fed rate expectations and provide the next catalyst for Gold.
Meanwhile, on the geopolitical front, the US military said it completed a “heavy wave of strikes” against Iran on Thursday in retaliation for Tehran’s ballistic-missile attack on US forces in Jordan, restarting the back-and-forth attacks in the region.
Technical analysis: RSI stays near neutral as XAU/USD searches for direction
On the daily chart, XAU/USD remains confined to its $4,000-$4,200 range, trading around the 20-day SMA, which also serves as the Bollinger middle band, near $4,072. This keeps the short-term outlook neutral and points to a lack of clear directional momentum.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 48 sits just below neutral, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains positive, together suggesting a constructive but not overstretched recovery within a moderately trending backdrop indicated by an Average Directional Index (ADX) reading of 30.
On the downside, the psychological $4,000 mark remains the key support holding the range together. A sustained break below this level would expose the Bollinger lower band near $3,969 and signal a possible bearish breakout.
On the upside, the Bollinger upper band near $4,175 offers initial resistance, followed by the upper boundary of the range at $4,200. A daily close above $4,200 would be needed to confirm a bullish breakout and open the door to further gains.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Inflation FAQs Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls.
Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money.
Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.
Gold prices fell in Philippines on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 7,990.18 Philippine Pesos (PHP) per gram, down compared with the PHP 8,032.38 it cost on Wednesday.
The price for Gold decreased to PHP 93,197.50 per tola from PHP 93,688.05 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in PHP
1 Gram
7,990.18
10 Grams
79,903.28
Tola
93,197.50
Troy Ounce
248,522.00
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Philippines by adapting international prices (USD/PHP) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold rebounded after the Federal Reserve prompted a sharp selloff in the US dollar, but the bigger question is whether that weakness has further to run. With the US Dollar Index approaching a major technical level and gold testing resistance, the next move for both markets may hinge on incoming US economic data.
View related analysis:
USD/JPY, GBP/JPY Outlook: US Dollar Slides Despite Fed Dissent, BOJ Up Next Australian Dollar Broadly Lower as Soft CPI Reverses RBA Hike Bets US Dollar Bulls Tighten Grip, Yen Bears Pile In: FX Futures Positioning | COT Report US Dollar Rally Builds Momentum, Crude Oil Holds the Key Post-FOMC Dollar Weakness Lifts Gold Within Its Trading Range The slightly less hawkish than expected FOMC meeting resulted in the US dollar suffering its worst day in three months. While Fed funds futures still imply a 25-bp hike in September, expectations for a follow-up hike have been pushed back from December to March. The fact that three FOMC members voted for a hike at yesterday's meeting has done little to alter expectations beyond September, allowing the weaker US dollar to lift gold and WTI crude.
But with Kevin Warsh vowing to keep fighting inflation, the Fed may be forced to deliver another hawkish hike next month if employment data holds up and inflation reaccelerates—which it might, given the recent rally in crude oil prices driven by Middle East headlines.
This raises the question of how much further the US Dollar Index (DXY) can fall. The answer could prove pivotal for gold, as the extent of any further dollar weakness is likely to determine how far the current rebound can extend.
US Dollar Index (DXY) Technical Analysis Crowded Dollar Longs Face Their First Test I have questioned in recent weeks whether the US dollar was nearing a sentiment extreme in the futures market. Net-long exposure rose to a 10-year high of $42.6 billion, according to the latest COT report data. Asset managers also reduced gross longs in US Dollar Index futures, with net-long exposure retreating from last week's 18-month high.
While futures positioning points to a sentiment extreme, I suspect any pullback in the US dollar will be limited unless the economic data begin to roll over.
The weekly US Dollar Index chart shows a potential bull flag, which could allow for a modest pullback before a bullish breakout. However, if the index falls below 100, I would consider the bull flag invalidated, suggesting a deeper correction is underway.
Source: ICE, TradingView
100 Becomes the Line in the Sand The daily chart shows bearish momentum has accelerated on the US Dollar Index after a double top formed around the June high. I suspect dollar bears are targeting a retest—and potentially a break—of the 100 level. However, the April and November highs could provide support, with a break below the 50-day EMA increasing the odds of a move towards 100. That could provide further support for gold in the near term, although I remain sceptical that we're about to witness a runaway rally.
Ultimately, my bias for a move to 102 remains intact while prices hold above 100. A break below 100 would bring the 200-day EMA and January's bullish trendline into focus.
Source: ICE, TradingView
Gold Futures (GC) Technical Analysis While gold remains within a downtrend, seasonality tends to favour the bulls as we head into August. We can see on the daily chart that $4,000 has provided solid support, with prices gapping $2.20 higher at today's open following the Fed-induced weakness in the US dollar.
Prices have since retraced part of that opening gap, but the rebound highlights the potential for a move back towards the cycle highs around $4,200. Such a move could coincide with the US Dollar Index extending its pullback towards the 50-day EMA, although it would also increase the risk of a deeper correction from those highs.
With my bias favouring the DXY falling towards 100, I am also on guard for a breakout above $4,200, given the strength of the rebound from support.
Gold prices fell in Malaysia on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 532.68 Malaysian Ringgits (MYR) per gram, down compared with the MYR 534.61 it cost on Wednesday.
The price for Gold decreased to MYR 6,213.14 per tola from MYR 6,235.60 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in MYR
1 Gram
532.68
10 Grams
5,326.90
Tola
6,213.14
Troy Ounce
16,568.31
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Malaysia by adapting international prices (USD/MYR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
In the latest trading session, Gold.com (GOLD - Free Report) closed at $40.15, marking a -1.59% move from the previous day. The stock fell short of the S&P 500, which registered a loss of 1.52% for the day. At the same time, the Dow lost 2.19%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq lost 1.74%.
The stock of precious metals trading company has fallen by 1.95% in the past month, lagging the Finance sector's gain of 3.88% and the S&P 500's gain of 1.92%.
Analysts and investors alike will be keeping a close eye on the performance of Gold.com in its upcoming earnings disclosure. The company is expected to report EPS of $0.96, up 26.32% from the prior-year quarter. Meanwhile, the latest consensus estimate predicts the revenue to be $7.76 billion, indicating a 209.04% increase compared to the same quarter of the previous year.
For the full year, the Zacks Consensus Estimates project earnings of $5.31 per share and a revenue of $28.27 billion, demonstrating changes of +144.7% and +157.52%, respectively, from the preceding year.
It's also important for investors to be aware of any recent modifications to analyst estimates for Goldcom. Such recent modifications usually signify the changing landscape of near-term business trends. As such, positive estimate revisions reflect analyst optimism about the business and profitability.
Our research demonstrates that these adjustments in estimates directly associate with imminent stock price performance. Investors can capitalize on this by using the Zacks Rank. This model considers these estimate changes and provides a simple, actionable rating system.
The Zacks Rank system, spanning from #1 (Strong Buy) to #5 (Strong Sell), boasts an impressive track record of outperformance, audited externally, with #1 ranked stocks yielding an average annual return of +25% since 1988. Within the past 30 days, our consensus EPS projection remained stagnant. Right now, Gold.com possesses a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold).
From a valuation perspective, Gold.com is currently exchanging hands at a Forward P/E ratio of 11.24. This signifies a discount in comparison to the average Forward P/E of 11.26 for its industry.
The Financial - Miscellaneous Services industry is part of the Finance sector. This industry, currently bearing a Zacks Industry Rank of 181, finds itself in the bottom 27% echelons of all 250+ industries.
The Zacks Industry Rank is ordered from best to worst in terms of the average Zacks Rank of the individual companies within each of these sectors. Our research shows that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1.
Keep in mind to rely on Zacks.com to watch all these stock-impacting metrics, and more, in the succeeding trading sessions.
Gold price rises during the North American session after the Federal Reserve decided to hold rates unchanged, with a 9-3 vote split, as three members of the FOMC opted to increase the Fed funds rate by 25 basis points. The XAU/USD trades volatily at the time of writing within the $4,041-$4,100 range.
XAU/USD trades choppily after the Fed held rates, with three officials backing a 25-bps hikeThe Fed noted that economic activity is expanding at a solid pace despite elevated uncertainty stemming from the Middle East conflict. The statement revealed that “Productivity growth and capital investment are strong. Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little.”
Furthermore, the policy statement added that the Fed will deliver price stability.
Voting against the monetary policy decision were Cleveland Fed Beth Hammack, Minneapolis Fed Neel Kashkari, and Dallas Fed Lorie Logan, who preferred a 25-basis-point rate hike.
Up next, investors await the press conference of the Fed Chair Kevin Warsh.
XAU/USD Hourly chart
Gold hourly chart Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Gold price eases for the third straight day and retests very important $4000 support on Wednesday, as initial enthusiasm about diplomatic action replacing hostilities in the Middle East, faded after fresh attacks of US / Saudi armies on Iraq.
The dollar firmed, keeping the yellow metal in defensive, as markets await results from Fed’s policy meeting and comments from Chairman Warsh, to get more information about the central bank’s next steps, as the Fed is widely expected to keep rates on hold in July meeting.
The latest developments in the Middle East warn of fresh pressure on prices (if the situation escalates further) that may keep gold at the back foot, especially if policymakers show more hawkish stance today.
Focus will be also on release of US June PCE price index (Fed’s preferred inflation gauge), due on Thursday, which would add more details to inflation picture.
Overall, the metal is expected to remain under increased pressure, especially if Fed hints more policy tightening (markets already bet for rate hike in September), with eventual break below $4000 to trigger fresh acceleration lower.
Gold price eases for the third straight day and retests very important $4000 support on Wednesday, as initial enthusiasm about diplomatic action replacing hostilities in the Middle East, faded after fresh attacks of US / Saudi armies on Iraq.
The dollar firmed, keeping the yellow metal in defensive, as markets await results from Fed’s policy meeting and comments from Chairman Warsh, to get more information about the central bank’s next steps, as the Fed is widely expected to keep rates on hold in July meeting.
The latest developments in the Middle East warn of fresh pressure on prices (if the situation escalates further) that may keep gold at the back foot, especially if policymakers show more hawkish stance today.
Focus will be also on release of US June PCE price index (Fed’s preferred inflation gauge), due on Thursday, which would add more details to inflation picture.
Overall, the metal is expected to remain under increased pressure, especially if Fed hints more policy tightening (markets already bet for rate hike in September), with eventual break below $4000 to trigger fresh acceleration lower.
The information contained in this document was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed herein are in good faith, but are subject to change without notice. No liability accepted whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this document.
Higher real yields and a firmer US Dollar may keep gold prices under pressure, but analysts eye weakness towards $3,850–$4,000 as an opportunity to rebuild exposure. The Gold price in US Dollars (XAU/USD) traded around $4,031 an ounce on Wednesday, attempting a modest recovery after losing 1.2% in the previous session and falling for a second consecutive day.
The metal has spent much of July oscillating around $4,000, well below the record levels reached earlier this year. It remains marginally higher for the month, but has fallen sharply since March, when prices briefly traded above $5,400.
UBS says the correction reflects a more difficult macro backdrop rather than the collapse of the longer-term investment case.
“Stronger US data and rising real yields have sapped gold’s near-term momentum,” the bank said, adding that higher yields and a stronger Dollar have increased the opportunity cost of holding an asset that pays no income.
Expectations for Federal Reserve policy have shifted alongside the stronger data. Markets have moved from anticipating rate cuts to considering whether the Fed could tighten again, a change that has been particularly uncomfortable for gold.
UBS nevertheless describes the retreat as “more like a reset than a broken investment case”.
Investor demand for gold exchange-traded funds has softened from earlier peaks, but positioning suggests investors have not abandoned the market. UBS also expects the Fed to remain on hold through 2026 before cutting rates in 2027, a path that should eventually reduce pressure from real yields and the Dollar.
Structural demand remains central to the bank’s argument.
“Central bank demand, continued diversification away from the US dollar, and global debt concerns remain important structural supports,” UBS said.
Image: Gold price year-to-date chart showing the retreat from January’s record high above $5,500 towards the $4,000 area The latest Exchange Rates UK chart captures just how dramatic the year has been.
The price of gold surged from around $4,300 at the start of January to above $5,500 later that month, before enduring a volatile decline through the spring. After another rally towards $5,350 in early March, the market began a more persistent retreat, reaching the $4,000 region by June.
The recent price action has been less spectacular but no less important. Gold has repeatedly found buyers close to $4,000, although rebounds have struggled to develop into a sustained recovery.
RBC Capital Markets’ latest Gold Standard review offers some evidence that investors are returning at lower levels.
Gold rose 1% to $4,056 during the week covered by the report, while physical gold ETFs recorded inflows of 404,000 ounces. Total global ETF holdings stood near 97 million ounces, although they remained 2.3 million ounces lower than at the end of 2025.
The same review showed US ten-year real yields climbing 14 basis points to 2.43%, while the Dollar index rose 0.7%. Those are usually hostile conditions for bullion, yet gold still managed a weekly advance.
RBC’s correlation data underline the relationship: gold’s one-year correlation with US ten-year real yields was negative 0.43, while its correlation with the Dollar index was negative 0.46.
In other words, the usual headwinds are still working. They simply have not been powerful enough to drive investors out altogether.
Near-Term Gold Price Forecast: UBS Sees $3,850–$4,000 Pullbacks as Buying Opportunities UBS expects gold to end 2026 around $4,600 an ounce before rising to $5,200 by June 2027.
That forecast allows for further weakness first. The bank says pullbacks towards the $3,850–$4,000 range “should be seen as opportunities for under-allocated investors to add exposure, rather than a reason to abandon the position”.
It also continues to view gold as a strategic portfolio hedge, arguing that the metal can offer diversification during equity-market stress, geopolitical shocks, inflation surprises and periods of weakening confidence in fiat currencies.
The next test will come from US economic data and the Federal Reserve. Another rise in real yields or a more hawkish policy signal could push gold back towards the lower end of UBS’s buying range.
A softer run of data would change the mood quickly. With ETF flows turning positive again and prices already far below their early-year peak, the market may not need much encouragement to challenge $4,200.
UBS’s message is not that the correction is over. It is that investors waiting for a cleaner entry may already be getting one.
TD Securities’ Ryan McKay and Bart Melek note that Gold remains under pressure as markets price a hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) path and renewed energy strength. They highlight that CTA (Commodity Trading Advisors) short covering only begins above $4,222/oz, with more substantial net long positioning closer to $4,300/oz. However, they expect multiple dissents and ongoing hike pricing to limit Gold’s ability to reach these CTA trigger levels.
Fed pricing restrains gold CTA flows"Precious metals have remained weak in the face of hawkish market pricing for the Fed, and renewed energy upside will continue to feed into this narrative."
"Gold markets are already well-priced for a hawkish Fed path, and while we are not expecting a hike today, the bar may be high to shift the underlying forward expectations for the yellow metal."
"CTAs need prices above $4,222/oz to catalyze only very minimal short covering, but beyond this level, pricing simulations highlight the potential for asymmetric upside with prices closer to $4,300/oz likely to see notable net long positions."
"However, we expect multiple dissents to a hold decision, and markets continuing to price for hikes in September and beyond, which would likely see any gold upside fall short of hitting those upside CTA scenario levels."
"War risk is back on, but we are not expecting any material CTA flows across the energy complex. Elsewhere, precious metals will be focused on the Fed, but the bar will be high to shift the underlying bearish forces in the gold market."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Gold hovers at 4,013, capped by its declining EMAs above 4,000. Source: TradingView The gold market gapped lower to show signs of negativity at the open on Wednesday as we sit just above the crucial $4,000 level. The $4,000 level, of course, is a large, round, psychologically significant figure and so far has shown a proclivity to be supported all the way down to the $3,900 level. This has been tested a few times recently.
The upside is capped at least in the short term from what we’ve seen near the $4,200 level, and the 50-day EMA racing towards that level also has an influence as well. Keep in mind that the Federal Reserve has an interest rate decision later in the day, and as that influences the bond market, it will certainly influence the gold market in tandem. Higher yields typically work against the value of gold, and that certainly has been the case from time to time here recently.
Gold and silver continue to consolidate above major historical support zones as markets await the Federal Reserve's policy decision. While gold is holding above a decade-long trendline dating back to 2016, silver is facing a multi-decade support zone originating from the 1980 highs.
These rare long-term technical setups raise an important question for investors: Is this a buying opportunity, or is it better to wait for greater clarity before re-entering the market?
Fed Expectations Take Center Stage Source: CME
That question becomes even more relevant as markets prepare for today's Federal Reserve decision.
Current market expectations imply:
Around a 70% probability that the Fed leaves interest rates unchanged. Nearly a 30% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike. Expectations that policymakers will maintain a hawkish tone, supported by persistent Middle East tensions and renewed inflation risks. September Expectations Turn More Hawkish
Source: CME
Looking ahead to September, expectations become considerably more hawkish:
More than a 56% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike. Around a 19% probability of a 50-basis-point hike. Around a 23% probability of rates remaining unchanged. These expectations continue to support the US Dollar Index above the 101 level, strengthening the US dollar while weighing on major currency pairs, including USD/JPY, which continues to trade near levels last seen in the 1980s.
At the same time, gold and silver remain trapped near critical technical confluence zones as investors assess whether Treasury yields will continue rising or whether the Federal Reserve could deliver a less hawkish message.
I discussed these scenarios in greater detail during my latest bi-weekly webinar.
Register Here
Regardless of whether the next catalyst comes from geopolitical developments, a stronger US dollar, or a shift in Fed guidance, the key technical levels outlined below provide a framework for assessing both the short-term and long-term outlook.
DXY Price Outlook: Monthly Time Frame – Log Scale
Source: Trading view
The monthly chart highlights that the US Dollar Index continues to hold within a major bullish confluence zone, supported by:
The neckline of a potential double-bottom pattern. The midpoint of a descending parallel channel extending from 2022. A multi-year support and resistance zone that has repeatedly defined price action since 2023. Monthly RSI holding comfortably above the neutral 50 level A monthly close above 102.00 would strengthen the bullish outlook, exposing resistance at 102.80, 104.50, and ultimately 107.00, which coincides with the upper boundary of the descending channel in place since 2022.
Such a move would likely coincide with renewed geopolitical tensions, stronger inflation pressures, or a more hawkish Federal Reserve. It would also increase downside pressure across major currencies and precious metals, potentially pushing both toward fresh 2026 lows before a longer-term recovery develops.
On the downside, a break below the uptrend support zone between 100.30 and 99.30 would weaken the year’s bullish structure, improving the outlook for currencies and precious metals. I explained these scenarios in the bi-weekly webinar below
Gold Price Outlook: 6 -Month Time Frame – Log Scale
Source: Trading view
From a six-month perspective, gold is testing one of the most significant technical confluence zones in decades.
Price continues to hold near the 27.2% Fibonacci retracement of the secular advance from 1920 to 2026. A sustained break below 3,930 would expose the 38.2% retracement between 3,500 and 3,460, an area that acted as major resistance throughout much of 2025. Gold is also holding above the long-term trendline connecting the major highs recorded between 2016 and 2025. What previously acted as resistance has now become one of the market's most important long-term support levels. Whether gold rebounds from this area or extends its correction will largely depend on:
Crude oil price direction Developments surrounding the US-Iran conflict and the Strait of Hormuz The Federal Reserve's policy outlook
Gold Price Outlook: Daily Time Frame – Log Scale
Source: Trading view
Despite the strength of this higher-time-frame support zone, gold remains trapped inside a contracting consolidation between 3,930 and 4,200.
The broader short-term outlook therefore remains neutral, with key levels inside the consolidation at:
4,140 on the upside. 3,960–3,930 on the downside. Meanwhile, the daily RSI continues to form a bullish divergence, suggesting downside momentum is gradually fading. However, confirmation requires a breakout above both the descending trendline connecting the lower highs since March 2026 and resistance between 4,140 and 4,200.
Gold Bullish Scenario
A sustained recovery above 4,140 and 4,200 would shift the short-term outlook back in favor of buyers. That would expose the next resistance levels at: 4,340 - 4,400
A breakout above 4,400 would strengthen the case for a broader recovery across precious metals while increasing confidence that the longer-term uptrend has resumed. Gold Bearish Scenario
On the downside, a break below the 3,960–3,930 support zone would reactivate the bearish scenario.
The next downside objectives are:
3,880–3,840, corresponding to the October 2025 lows. 3,700 3,500 - 3,460, respected 5 month resistance zone in 2025 These longer-term support zones could provide another significant reversal opportunity.
As long as the US Dollar Index and crude oil remain firm, downside risks across currencies and precious metals are likely to remain elevated.
Silver Price Outlook: 3-Month Time Frame – Log Scale
Source: Trading view
The six-month chart highlights several important long-term technical developments.
A shooting star reversal candle. A breakdown below the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the secular advance from 1930 to 2026. Price approaching the multi-decade trendline connecting the highs recorded between 1980 and 2024, which may now transition from long-term resistance into major support. This area also aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the entire advance between $46 and $50.
The shorter-term outlook is further clarified on the daily chart below.
Silver Price Outlook: Daily Time Frame – Log Scale
Source: Trading view
From a daily perspective, silver is attempting to stabilize above the descending trendline connecting the lower highs formed since May 2026.
At the same time, momentum indicators remain below the neckline of the previous head-and-shoulders pattern, keeping the short-term bearish bias intact despite bullish divergence.
A break below $55.50 would expose the longer-term support zone between $50 and $46. Conversely, a breakout above $61 exposes $63.80 - $68 - $72. Long term outlook: a confirmed breakout above 72 would significantly strengthen confidence that a broader bullish reversal is underway, reopening the path toward triple-digit silver prices over the longer term.
Key Takeaway
The US Dollar Index (DXY) will remain one of the primary benchmarks for both the foreign exchange and precious metals markets as geopolitical risks and Federal Reserve expectations continue to evolve.
The 101.80–102.00 resistance zone remains the key to watch for upside risks The 100.30 - 99.30 support zone remains key to watch for downside risks Written by Razan Hilal, CMT
Gold has traded sideways for a month in a range from the June low of 3943 up to Fibonacci resistance at 4160/4170.
We remain right in the middle of that range in very quiet conditions, with little movement yesterday. We reversed again (which is to be expected in a sideways consolidation of course) to retest Friday's low.
We broke below the 10-day ascending trend line minor support at 4047/4042 to target 4023/4019, reaching 4010.
We are now ranging from here back up to that 4042/4047 (we made a high for the bounce here in the afternoon).
We will probably keep reversing and remain in a sideways trend.
Bear in mind the Fed rate meeting today - a move is not expected but there may be expectations of a September rate hike.
If this is talked about it could push Gold lower. A break below 4008 can target 4005, 3999 & even 3984/3980.
A break above 4050 (above minor resistance at 4042/4047) can target stronger resistance at 4065/4070.
A high for the day is possible but shorts need stops above 4076.
Gold – Chart Gold is forming a big symmetrical triangle with price currently sitting around $4,034 after bouncing off the rising trendline near $4,011. Nonetheless, the price remains below the 50-EMA ($4,058) and 100-EMA ($4,071), suggesting that the overall short-term trend is bearish. The RSI is recovering to around 43, which indicates that bearish momentum is slowing down, but bulls are not yet in charge.
Resistance is immediately at $4,066, followed by $4,114 and $4,166. Support is held at $4,011, followed by $3,959 and $3,913.
Gold is neutral as long as it trades within the triangle. A break above $4,066 would increase the likelihood of a move towards $4,114 and $4,166, whereas a break below $4,011 would open up the possibility of a drop towards $3,959.
Silver (XAG/USD) Technical Analysis: Triangle Support Holds as Bulls Attempt Recovery
Gold prices remained broadly unchanged in United Arab Emirates on Wednesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 475.26 United Arab Emirates Dirhams (AED) per gram, broadly stable compared with the AED 475.68 it cost on Tuesday.
The price for Gold was broadly steady at AED 5,543.31 per tola from AED 5,548.28 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in AED
1 Gram
475.26
10 Grams
4,752.56
Tola
5,543.31
Troy Ounce
14,782.05
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in United Arab Emirates by adapting international prices (USD/AED) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices fell in India on Wednesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 12,389.67 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, down compared with the INR 12,404.04 it cost on Tuesday.
The price for Gold decreased to INR 144,511.40 per tola from INR 144,678.20 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in INR
1 Gram
12,389.67
10 Grams
123,897.30
Tola
144,511.40
Troy Ounce
385,359.30
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Commerzbank’s Carsten Fritsch and Thu Lan Nguyen note that the Gold price has dropped nearly 30% from its January record as higher real yields and hawkish Federal Reserve expectations weigh on the metal. The bank cuts its year-end Gold forecast to USD 4,500 per troy ounce, but still projects a move to USD 5,000 by end-2027 if Fed rates stay unchanged and later fall.
Forecast cut but recovery seen later"We are lowering our year-end gold price forecast to USD 4,500 per troy ounce (previously: USD 4,800). This reflects the significant fall in prices, which can be attributed to the Fed adopting a more hawkish stance than expected."
"Nevertheless, there is potential for the gold price to recover from its current level, as we consider current market expectations of Fed rate hikes to be excessive and anticipate that Fed interest rates will remain unchanged until the end of the year."
"In this scenario, the Fed would likely refrain from raising interest rates and might even cut its key interest rate from mid-2027 onwards, as the 2% target would then be reached in spring 2027. This provides scope for a further price increase next year to USD 5,000 per troy ounce by the end of 2027 (previous forecast: USD 5,200)."
"However, without a reversal in interest rate expectations, a lasting return of ETF investors and a recovery in the gold price are unlikely."
"As long as this remains the case, gold is unlikely to benefit disproportionately from increased demand for safe havens."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
TD Securities strategists argue that the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) underperformance since the February 2026 Iran shock reflects both low-yield carry dynamics and sensitivity to Gold prices. With the Swiss National Bank (SNB) expected to keep policy on hold and sight deposits muted, they see global rate paths and commodities as key drivers for Swiss Franc (CHF) crosses, limiting further sustained CHF weakness.
SNB on hold leaves CHF to globals"Since the Iran shock at the end of February 2026, CHF has become one of the worst-performing global currencies along with SEK. Risk-off sentiment only supported CHF briefly in the first half of March, before a downtrend ensued."
"CHF has always been a low-yielding currency, but FX carry did not always drive CHF weaker. In fact, during the last global rate hiking cycle of 2022, when rate differential widened in favor of global currencies against CHF, CHF broadly rallied on the back of falling SNB sight deposits. Sight deposits have shown a muted change in 2026, which has allowed macro variables to dictate the direction of EUR/CHF. With the SNB likely to keep the policy rate on hold in the foreseeable future, rate paths for global central banks will matter more for CHF-crosses."
"CHF has been one of the worst-performing global currencies since the Iran shock in 2026. While CHF bears have been awakened with FX market participants largely attributing CHF weakness to carry, we find falling gold price also matters. The EUR/CHF rally could end if ECB pauses rate hikes after September; falling gold prices will be a prerequisite for CHF to stay weak."
"In the scenario that the ECB keeps policy rate on hold after one more hike in September, the EU-SZ rate differential would likely see its peak, and further gold selloff will be needed for the CHF to stay weak, in our view. In commodities, our research suggests gold prices could fall to $3,900/oz in the near-term before recovering into a new uptrend. As we see limited scope for a prolonged global rate hiking cycle and only modest gold price downside, our FX forecast has EUR/CHF staying around 0.93 into year-end 2026."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Gold hovers at 4,032, capped by its declining EMAs above 4,000. Source: TradingView The gold market has fallen early during the trading session on Tuesday as we continue to see elevated interest rates causing a little bit of chaos. At this point in time, the market will continue to look at the $4,000 level as potential support that extends down to the $3,900 level. Breaking below the $3,900 level could open up significant selling pressure, but based on the recent action, it does seem like there are a lot of buyers in that region. This is an area that I think will continue to attract a lot of attention.
Gold continues to move based on inflationary concerns, the US dollar, interest rates, etc., which are all being driven by the Middle East. It does make a certain amount of sense that gold continues to go sideways at this point because, quite frankly, everybody is probably feeling a little stuck. This is a problem for people looking to take advantage of a trend, which is difficult to find in gold at the moment.
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Gold prices fell in Philippines on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 8,010.13 Philippine Pesos (PHP) per gram, down compared with the PHP 8,077.87 it cost on Monday.
The price for Gold decreased to PHP 93,435.17 per tola from PHP 94,218.74 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in PHP
1 Gram
8,010.13
10 Grams
80,101.70
Tola
93,435.17
Troy Ounce
249,146.50
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Philippines by adapting international prices (USD/PHP) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices fell in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 487.73 Saudi Riyals (SAR) per gram, down compared with the SAR 492.02 it cost on Monday.
The price for Gold decreased to SAR 5,688.78 per tola from SAR 5,738.88 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in SAR
1 Gram
487.73
10 Grams
4,877.19
Tola
5,688.78
Troy Ounce
15,170.27
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Saudi Arabia by adapting international prices (USD/SAR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices fell in United Arab Emirates on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 477.45 United Arab Emirates Dirhams (AED) per gram, down compared with the AED 481.37 it cost on Monday.
The price for Gold decreased to AED 5,568.87 per tola from AED 5,614.58 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in AED
1 Gram
477.45
10 Grams
4,774.48
Tola
5,568.87
Troy Ounce
14,849.94
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in United Arab Emirates by adapting international prices (USD/AED) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices fell in Malaysia on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 531.48 Malaysian Ringgits (MYR) per gram, down compared with the MYR 535.50 it cost on Monday.
The price for Gold decreased to MYR 6,199.04 per tola from MYR 6,245.98 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in MYR
1 Gram
531.48
10 Grams
5,314.99
Tola
6,199.04
Troy Ounce
16,530.99
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Malaysia by adapting international prices (USD/MYR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
On a recent episode of the Money Metals Podcast, host Mike Maharrey welcomed veteran market strategist Gregory T. Weldon, publisher of the Global Macro Strategy Report, for a wide-ranging discussion on precious metals, inflation, Federal Reserve policy, artificial intelligence, and global macroeconomic trends.
Weldon explained why he has shifted back to a bullish outlook on gold and silver following the recent correction, arguing that the long-term bull market in precious metals remains firmly intact.
Gold and Silver investment outlook turns bullish againWeldon said he previously anticipated silver would correct toward $61 per ounce, with a worst-case target near $54, after successfully exiting positions between $96 and $98 when prices had traded above $100.
With silver now recovering above $60, he believes investors have another opportunity to accumulate physical precious metals. He described the current environment as a "back the truck up" moment, adding that he is personally converting long-term savings into physical gold and silver rather than holding excess cash. He also noted that one of his silver-share investments returned 167%, after being up as much as 217% before profits were taken.
Weldon remains especially optimistic about silver's future. He reiterated that the breakout above $36.50 confirmed a major secular bull market and argued that today's rally is supported by genuine supply deficits and rising industrial demand rather than speculative excess. Based on his long-term macroeconomic analysis, he projects silver could ultimately reach approximately $326 per ounce within the next five to seven years.
AI bubble, stock market risks, and Federal Reserve policyThe conversation then turned to broader financial markets, where Weldon expressed growing concern that artificial intelligence has become the latest investment bubble. He argued that enormous capital spending on AI infrastructure, semiconductor manufacturing, and data centers is approaching saturation, leaving technology stocks vulnerable if spending begins to slow. In his view, a significant stock market correction could temporarily pressure many asset classes before ultimately strengthening demand for safe-haven assets such as gold and silver.
Maharrey and Weldon also discussed the bond market and Federal Reserve policy. Weldon believes rising long-term interest rates reflect slowing economic growth, tightening financial conditions, and increasing fiscal concerns rather than healthy economic expansion. While higher yields can create short-term headwinds for gold, he argued that expanding government debt and deteriorating fiscal conditions ultimately leave policymakers with few options other than renewed monetary stimulus.
Regarding Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, Weldon praised his communication skills but questioned whether the Fed can realistically maintain a hardline stance against inflation. He believes any meaningful economic slowdown or stock market decline would force policymakers to abandon restrictive monetary policy and return to quantitative easing and money creation, despite public commitments to fighting inflation.
Inflation, food prices, and energy market challengesAnother major focus of the interview centered on inflation, particularly rising food costs. Weldon argued that weather-related disruptions remain one of the most overlooked inflationary risks. He pointed to historically low snowpack across the western United States, declining fog moisture in Northern California, and NOAA's forecast for an unusually severe El Niño expected to persist into April of next year. According to Weldon, these conditions threaten agricultural production across multiple regions, including sugar production in Thailand and coffee crops in Brazil and Vietnam.
He also warned that petroleum markets remain structurally tight despite hopes that geopolitical tensions could ease. With crude oil reserves at historically low levels and food inflation likely accelerating alongside energy costs, Weldon believes inflation will remain well above the Federal Reserve's long-term target, placing policymakers in an increasingly difficult position.
China, rare earth minerals, and the long-term case for GoldThe interview concluded with a discussion of global geopolitics and strategic resource competition. Weldon argued that China has built a substantial long-term advantage through its control of rare earth minerals, commodity supply chains, and growing gold reserves. He noted that China, Russia, and Vietnam control more than 80% of the world's rare earth resources, leaving the United States heavily dependent on foreign suppliers for many critical materials used in advanced manufacturing and defense.
Weldon believes these geopolitical trends, combined with mounting U.S. government debt, persistent inflation, and increasing pressure on the dollar, reinforce the long-term investment case for physical gold and silver.
Throughout the interview, he emphasized that investors should focus less on short-term market volatility and more on preserving purchasing power through ownership of tangible assets as the global economic and monetary landscape continues to evolve.
Fed rate decision – GoldAttention this week turns to Wednesday's FOMC decision, with the Fed largely expected to leave rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% for a fifth straight meeting. However, oil's surge above $100 a barrel following renewed Middle East tensions has revived inflation concerns, complicating the policy outlook.
Investors will focus on Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's remarks for clues on whether a September rate hike remains under consideration. Although US inflation eased to 3.5% y/y in June, it remains well above the Fed's 2% target, while higher energy prices risk reigniting price pressures.
A hawkish message would likely support Treasury yields and USD, weighing on Gold as the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding metal rises. Technically, the yellow metal has recovered towards 4,100 as US-Iran tensions show signs of easing, but momentum remains subdued and the 50-day SMA continues to cap upside attempts. A hawkish Fed could shift the focus back towards the psychological 4,000 floor, while a softer tone may allow the rebound to extend towards 4,200.
BoJ policy meeting – USD/JPYThe Bank of Japan is expected to keep rates unchanged at 1.00% on Friday, following June's 25bp hike to a 31-year high. However, policymakers are likely to maintain a hawkish bias as inflation risks remain elevated amid a weak yen, higher energy costs and robust AI-driven demand.
Investors continue to debate whether the next hike could come as early as September or October, particularly if inflation proves stickier than expected or yen weakness persists. Several BoJ officials have recently argued that rates should move closer to neutral levels, although political pressure from the growth-focused Sanae Takaichi administration may limit the pace of future tightening.
Meanwhile, USDJPY surged to 163.97 last week, marking a fresh 40-year high, before paring gains. Technically, the broader uptrend remains intact, with 164.50 as the next upside target. However, a hawkish BoJ surprise or renewed intervention fears from Tokyo could trigger a correction towards 162.00.
BoE policy meeting – GBP/USDThe Bank of England is widely expected to keep rates unchanged at 3.75%, marking a fifth consecutive hold. Cooling wage growth and easing inflation have reduced the urgency for further tightening. However, policymakers remain wary that renewed Middle East tensions and higher energy prices could reignite price pressures, even after UK inflation eased to 2.6% in June.
Attention will focus on the expected 7-2 vote split, with investors looking for clues on whether policymakers are becoming more concerned about energy-driven inflation risks. Markets will also monitor any discussion around the future pace of quantitative tightening as the BoE reviews its balance-sheet reduction programme.
For GBP/USD, risks remain skewed to the downside. Fiscal uncertainty persists as investors await more details about new PM Andy Burnham's policy plans, while markets continue to price a relatively firm rate outlook despite signs of a cooling economy. Any indication that the BoE is becoming more comfortable with inflation could weigh on sterling, while a more hawkish tone may help sustain the pair's current recovery from the 1.3300 area.
Gold Talking Points: As Treasury rates threaten a breakout to fresh highs Kevin Warsh has the unenviable task of trying to represent Fed independence while not upsetting President Trump like his predecessor Jerome Powell. While Trump doesn’t have a vote at the Fed he can make it very uncomfortable for the newly-appointed Fed chair, and he’s been very open with his desire for rate cuts dismissing the fact that the Fed only controls short-term rates and longer-term Treasury rates are at the mercy of the market (and Treasury issuance).
This content was created by an affiliate of FOREX.com and represents the views and opinions of the author/speakers, not the views and opinions of Forex.com, StoneX Group Inc., or its subsidiaries. The content has not been independently reviewed by FOREX.com.
This is a big week. Of course, we have the central bank rate decisions from Japan and the US and that’s probably going to be a big focal point. But we also have an abundance of important earnings reports, with a third of the S&P 500 reporting quarterly numbers, and this is the kind of week where quite a bit can get lost in the shuffle.
In this video for StoneX TV I share my opinion, which is something that I think can be construed as a long-term positive for gold and stocks. While Warsh has sounded hawkish thus far, it’s difficult to imagine that he errs on the side of hawkish if equity prices are hanging in the balance. Trump had said during the interview process that a requirement for whomever he nominated would be a willingness to cut rates – but if Warsh came in and just automatically echoed that sentiment long-term bond yields would become unmoored, like the reaction we saw to Fed rate cuts in 2024.
Higher inflation expectations would feed into lower Treasury prices (and higher yields) and this would bring a counteractive response to global markets as higher borrowing costs would act as a drag on the global economy.
So, it makes sense, especially given where inflation prints have been, that Kevin Warsh has sounded hawkish – but he didn’t need to use that ammunition of a dovish lean with stock prices at highs. Now that equities have shown a bit of pullback, and the past couple of inflation prints have moderated, there’s probably less urgency for Warsh to given the appearance of Fed independence.
I’m expecting Warsh to sound less hawkish on Wednesday and this is something that I think can help gold this week, as the $4k level has, so far, held support quite well. I explained that in detail in this week’s forecast and so far this week, buyers are making a move with another test of the $4100 level.
Gold Daily Price Chart Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview --- written by James Stanley, Senior Market Analyst, Global Macro
UBS believes gold prices could face further near-term pressure from rising bond yields and easing geopolitical risk, but says any pullback should be viewed as a buying opportunity.
The bank continues to target $5,200 per ounce by mid-2027, arguing that structural demand from central banks and investors remains intact.
The Gold price in US Dollars (XAU/USD) traded around $4,080 on Monday after extending its consolidation around the $4,000 level, well below this year's record highs above $5,300.
Image: XAU/USD 1 year chart The one-year chart shows gold retreating from its March peak above $5,300 before stabilising around the $4,000 level.
UBS believes the broader bull market remains intact despite the correction.
UBS says the precious metal has entered a consolidation phase as investors weigh stronger US economic data against persistent geopolitical uncertainty.
The bank notes that higher Treasury yields and a more cautious outlook for Federal Reserve rate cuts could generate further short-term weakness.
"Near-term risks are skewed towards a deeper pullback."
However, UBS argues that the longer-term investment case has changed little.
"We continue to expect gold to reach USD 5,200/oz by June 2027."
According to the bank, structural demand from central banks remains exceptionally strong, while investors are likely to increase allocations once interest-rate uncertainty begins to fade.
UBS also believes that geopolitical tensions continue to provide an important backstop for prices.
"Periods of weakness should be viewed as opportunities to add exposure."
The bank maintains that any decline towards the $3,850 area would represent an attractive entry point for long-term investors rather than signalling the end of the bull market.
Gold Forecast: UBS Says Structural Drivers Remain Intact UBS expects gold to remain volatile over the coming months as markets respond to changing expectations for US monetary policy.
Even so, the bank believes higher real yields are unlikely to outweigh the combination of central bank buying, continued reserve diversification and safe-haven demand.
Image: Gold price in US Dollars (USD) 1 day chart The one-day chart highlights gold's consolidation around $4,080, with prices struggling to break higher as stronger US yields offset continued safe-haven demand.
While UBS accepts that gold may remain rangebound in the short term, it continues to forecast a renewed advance over the next year, with $5,200 remaining its central price target by mid-2027.
Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.
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Gold (XAU/USD) has been consolidating gains during the European trading session, following a bullish gap at the week’s opening as a moderate improvement of risk sentiment hurt the safe-haven USD. A pause in the US-Iran hostilities has boosted hopes of a second round of peace talks, sending Oil prices about $10 lower from last week’s peak and pushing US Treasury yields lower.
Precious metals’ rallies, however, remain subdued so far with investors looking from the sidelines, ahead of the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy meeting, due on Wednesday. Later today, the release of US Durable Goods Orders and the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index will provide further insight into the momentum of US industrial activity, to frame Wednesday’s decision.
Futures markets are pricing a 33% chance of a Fed rate hike on Wednesday. The most likely scenario, thus, is that of a steady monetary policy, but strong growth data and above-target inflation might prompt the Fed’s Chairman to convey a hawkish message. In this context, the risk is skewed to the downside for gold.
Technical Analysis: Gold is forming a descending triangle
XAU/USD trades at $4,101. The metal holds a constructive immediate bias, yet with price action contained within an ever-narrowing range since late June. Momentum indicators in 4-hour charts are in neutral-to-positive territory, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) wavering around the 50 midline and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) just above zero, hinting at a consolidation rather than an impulsive bullish reversal.
Bulls would need a clear break of the area between the descending trend-line now around $4,160 and the June 22 high around the $4,200 area to confirm a trend shift and bring mid-June highs, at the $4,380 area, into focus.
It's worth mentioning, however, that triangles are often continuation patterns and that, in that sense, a bearish outcome is favoured. Supports are at the triangle's bottom, in the $3,940-$3,960 area, and the late October 2025 low, near $3,885. The Triangle's measured target is at the $3,700 area.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Gold was among the gainers at the start of the week, as the metal started trading on Monday with gap higher and advanced around 1.5% in Asian trading.
Softer rhetoric in geopolitical front, after US and Iran paused hostilities, opening way for potential diplomatic action, eased inflation concerns and deflated expectations for Fed rate hikes in coming months.
The action weakened the US dollar and provided fresh boost to gold price which probed again through $4100 barrier after the recent weakness found footstep above key $4000 support zone.
The price moved to the upper side of near-term $3950/$4200 range that boosts optimism, however, daily technical structure is improving but still fragile (the price needs to sustain gains above 20DMA ($4072 to keep slight bullish bias, underpinned north-heading 14-d momentum on track to break into positive territory).
In such scenario, $4200 upper breakpoint will remain exposed, with firm break here to generate initial reversal signal and formation of base.
Fundamentals need to remain in current mode (or improve further) to continue underpinning near-term action.
Initial support lays at $4072 (20DMA) followed by $4052 (10DMA) loss of which would hurt fresh bulls and risk retest of range floor.
The information contained in this document was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed herein are in good faith, but are subject to change without notice. No liability accepted whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this document.
Gold was among the gainers at the start of the week, as the metal started trading on Monday with gap higher and advanced around 1.5% in Asian trading.
Softer rhetoric in geopolitical front, after US and Iran paused hostilities, opening way for potential diplomatic action, eased inflation concerns and deflated expectations for Fed rate hikes in coming months.
The action weakened the US dollar and provided fresh boost to gold price which probed again through $4100 barrier after the recent weakness found footstep above key $4000 support zone.
The price moved to the upper side of near-term $3950/$4200 range that boosts optimism, however, daily technical structure is improving but still fragile (the price needs to sustain gains above 20DMA ($4072 to keep slight bullish bias, underpinned north-heading 14-d momentum on track to break into positive territory).
In such scenario, $4200 upper breakpoint will remain exposed, with firm break here to generate initial reversal signal and formation of base.
Fundamentals need to remain in current mode (or improve further) to continue underpinning near-term action.
Initial support lays at $4072 (20DMA) followed by $4052 (10DMA) loss of which would hurt fresh bulls and risk retest of range floor.
Cena zlata ve druhém čtvrtletí výrazně korigovala a zaznamenala nejhorší čtvrtletní výkon od roku 2013. Za poklesem stály především rostoucí očekávání vyšších úrokových sazeb v USA, silnější dolar a ústup části geopolitické rizikové prémie. Přesto analytici Invesca upozorňují, že dlouhodobé podpůrné faktory zůstávají nadále v platnosti. Mezi nejvýznamnější patří pokračující nákupy centrálních bank, zájem o diverzifikaci devizových rezerv a role zlata jako tradičního uchovatele hodnoty v období ekonomické a geopolitické nejistoty.
Cena zlata ve druhém čtvrtletí klesla o 14,1 %, čímž vymazala růst z prvního čtvrtletí. Od historického intradenního maxima dosaženého na konci ledna letošního roku se propadla o více než 1 500 USD za unci.
Volatilita se zvýšila už v dubnu, největší pokles však přišel v průběhu května a června. 24. června se zlato poprvé od listopadu 2025 krátce obchodovalo pod hranicí 4 000 USD za unci. V následujících dnech kolem této psychologicky významné úrovně kolísalo a čtvrtletí zakončilo na 4 008 USD za unci. Šlo o nejhorší výsledek od druhého čtvrtletí 2013, kdy cena zlata čtvrtletně propadla o 22,7 %. Takové korekce však nejsou po dlouhém období výrazného růstu nijak výjimečné a mohou být z dlouhodobého pohledu zdravou součástí vývoje trhu. Navzdory současnému poklesu je zlato za posledních dvanáct měsíců stále výš, a to o 21,3 %.
Přesto přetrvávají rizika dalšího oslabení. Nadcházející měsíce budou pro trh se zlatem klíčové. Investoři budou sledovat především reakci Fedu na vývoj inflace – zda se ukáže jako setrvalá, nebo začne díky nižším cenám ropy ustupovat – a také další vývoj amerického dolaru vůči ostatním hlavním měnám. Vyšší úrokové sazby i silnější dolar bývají pro zlato nepříznivé. Vyšší sazby totiž zvyšují alternativní náklady držby aktiva, které nenese žádný výnos, zatímco silnější dolar zdražuje zlato pro investory mimo Spojené státy.
Obrázek 1: Vývoj ceny zlata od 1. července 2025 do 30. června 2026
Zdroj: Bloomberg, data za období 12 měsíců do 30. června 2026.
Co stálo za poklesem ceny zlata? Inflace, dolar a očekávání ohledně Fedu
Za poklesem ceny zlata stálo několik vzájemně propojených faktorů. Především se zvýšily obavy, že inflace bude přetrvávat déle, než se dříve očekávalo, což znamená, že úrokové sazby mohou zůstat vyšší po delší dobu.
Americký dolar zároveň mírně posílil, částečně právě v reakci na změnu očekávání ohledně měnové politiky. Současně se snížila část geopolitické rizikové přirážky, protože trhy začaly věřit, že jednání mezi Spojenými státy a Íránem směřuje k uspokojivému výsledku.
Právě konflikt mezi oběma zeměmi vyvolal výrazné výkyvy cen energií a obrátil pozornost investorů k inflaci. Čím déle konflikt trvá, tím větší je riziko dlouhodobějších inflačních dopadů – nejen prostřednictvím cen ropy, ale i jejich sekundárních efektů v celé ekonomice.
Zdá se také, že investoři věří v postupný návrat inflace pod kontrolu, jak ukazují inflační očekávání (viz obrázek 2). Otázkou však zůstává, zda není tento optimismus předčasný vzhledem k aktuálním datům k inflaci a přetrvávající nejistotě kolem vztahů mezi USA a Íránem.
Obrázek 2: Inflační očekávání klesají navzdory stále vysoké inflaci
Zdroj: Bloomberg, data k 30. červnu 2026.
S příchodem nového předsedy Kevina Warshe se zdá, že Fed je odhodlán důrazněji řešit přetrvávající inflaci, takže možnost zvýšení sazeb se dostala zpět do hry. Ke konci druhého čtvrtletí tržní ocenění naznačovalo 33,7% pravděpodobnost zvýšení sazeb o 25 bazických bodů na konci července, přibližně 67% pravděpodobnost, že Fed zvýší sazby alespoň jednou do zářijového zasedání FOMC. Podle nástroje CME FedWatch činí pravděpodobnost, že budou sazby na konci roku vyšší než dnes, přibližně 83 %.
Obrázek 3: Očekávání trhu ohledně vývoje sazeb se během druhého čtvrtletí výrazně změnila
Zdroj: CME FedWatch Tool. Zobrazuje implikované pravděpodobnosti jednotlivých scénářů vývoje úrokových sazeb před zasedáním FOMC dne 16. září 2026.
Výhled pro zlato ve druhé polovině roku 2026
Navzdory současné korekci se domníváme, že většina dlouhodobých podpůrných faktorů pro zlato zůstává zachována. Jedním z nejvýznamnějších je pokračující poptávka centrálních bank, které diverzifikují své devizové rezervy. Podle nejnovějšího průzkumu World Gold Council (WGC) očekává rekordních 45 % oslovených centrálních bankéřů, že během příštích dvanácti měsíců zvýší objem svých zlatých rezerv. Celkem 89 % respondentů předpokládá, že celkové zásoby zlata držené centrálními bankami budou v příštím roce dále růst.
Stejný trend potvrzuje také studie Invesco Global Sovereign Asset Management Study 2026, podle níž většina centrálních bank během posledních tří let navýšila podíl zlata ve svých rezervách. Hlavními důvody jsou rostoucí globální volatilita, ochrana před inflací a geopolitická nejistota.
Poptávka centrálních bank je přitom na vývoj ceny zlata poměrně necitlivá. Naopak investiční poptávka bývá na cenovou dynamiku mnohem citlivější. Růst cen často přitahuje nové investory, zatímco jejich pokles může vést k realizaci zisků, zejména pokud investoři potřebují uvolnit kapitál pro jiné investice.
Významným zdrojem poptávky během dlouhodobého růstu zlata byly také nákupy investičních mincí a menších slitků drobnými investory. Bude proto důležité sledovat, jak na současnou cenovou korekci zareagují právě oni.
Pro drobné i institucionální investory však význam zlata nespočívá pouze v jeho schopnosti chránit před geopolitickými riziky, přestože historicky tuto roli často plnilo velmi dobře.
Zlato představuje účinný diverzifikační nástroj, protože vykazuje nízkou korelaci s většinou ostatních tříd aktiv, zejména s akciemi. Zároveň jde o jedinečné aktivum bez emitenta a bez úvěrového rizika, které si po staletí udržuje pověst spolehlivého uchovatele hodnoty v obdobích, kdy investoři ztrácejí důvěru v měny, instituce nebo fungování finančního systému.
V České republice je možné do zlata investovat prostřednictvím fondu Invesco Physical Gold ETC.
Gold prices rose in United Arab Emirates on Monday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 483.10 United Arab Emirates Dirhams (AED) per gram, up compared with the AED 478.59 it cost on Friday.
The price for Gold increased to AED 5,634.75 per tola from AED 5,582.15 per tola on friday.
Unit measure
Gold Price in AED
1 Gram
483.10
10 Grams
4,830.98
Tola
5,634.75
Troy Ounce
15,026.06
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in United Arab Emirates by adapting international prices (USD/AED) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices rose in Philippines on Monday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 8,120.57 Philippine Pesos (PHP) per gram, up compared with the PHP 8,044.82 it cost on Friday.
The price for Gold increased to PHP 94,716.77 per tola from PHP 93,833.15 per tola on friday.
Unit measure
Gold Price in PHP
1 Gram
8,120.57
10 Grams
81,206.71
Tola
94,716.77
Troy Ounce
252,580.40
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Philippines by adapting international prices (USD/PHP) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices rose in Pakistan on Monday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 36,466.58 Pakistani Rupees (PKR) per gram, up compared with the PKR 36,130.88 it cost on Friday.
The price for Gold increased to PKR 425,339.00 per tola from PKR 421,423.50 per tola on friday.
Unit measure
Gold Price in PKR
1 Gram
36,466.58
10 Grams
364,665.80
Tola
425,339.00
Troy Ounce
1,134,245.00
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Pakistan by adapting international prices (USD/PKR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices rose in Malaysia on Monday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 536.89 Malaysian Ringgits (MYR) per gram, up compared with the MYR 532.16 it cost on Friday.
The price for Gold increased to MYR 6,262.23 per tola from MYR 6,207.01 per tola on friday.
Unit measure
Gold Price in MYR
1 Gram
536.89
10 Grams
5,368.94
Tola
6,262.23
Troy Ounce
16,699.29
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Malaysia by adapting international prices (USD/MYR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices rose in India on Monday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 12,658.26 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, up compared with the INR 12,543.37 it cost on Friday.
The price for Gold increased to INR 147,643.80 per tola from INR 146,303.40 per tola on friday.
Unit measure
Gold Price in INR
1 Gram
12,658.26
10 Grams
126,582.90
Tola
147,643.80
Troy Ounce
393,712.30
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold daily chart shows a potential double bottom forming above the $4,000 area. Source: TradingView Dynamic resistance is represented by the 50-day moving average, at $4,230 currently, which will soon converge with the $4,203 area, adding to the significance of the resistance zone. That would increase the chance that a double bottom breakout would also reclaim the 50-day moving average and therefore improve the chance for an extended recovery. A move through this confluence of resistance would therefore provide a stronger technical confirmation than a breakout above $4,203 alone.
Resistance Confluence Meets Critical Support Despite the potential for an upside move, gold shows significant resistance near the $4,203 pivot. In addition to the 50-day moving average joining the price zone, there is a long-term uptrend line and a shorter downtrend line that align. This week’s low of $4,022 is key short-term support, but it remains possible that a decline to the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $4,004 may yet complete the pullback. If that area fails to hold as support, the chance for a bullish recovery in the near-term weakens. Conversely, holding above this support zone would keep the developing double-bottom setup intact and preserve the potential for a breakout above $4,203.
Path Toward $4,496 If a decisive breakout above $4,203 were to occur, then the 200-day moving average defines the key upside target zone. It is now at $4,496. Since the 200-day moving average was broken in early June, the current advance would be the first notable pullback to test it as resistance. Resistance is therefore anticipated, at least on the initial approach. Therefore, holding $4,022-$4,004 is critical before gold can challenge the $4,203-$4,230 resistance zone and target the 200-day moving average.
If you’d like to know more about how to trade gold and silver, please visit our educational area.
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Key Market Levels $4,000, of course, is a large, round, psychologically significant figure, and that in and of itself probably attracts some attention as well. With this, the market looks very noisy, very choppy, but I think we also have to assume that the market is going to have to make a bigger decision sooner or later.
We are in the dead of summer, and markets can be quiet this time of year, so do keep that in mind. But as things stand right now, this looks like a market that probably is frozen by headlines as well, with the noise in the Middle East. A little bit of sideways action, really not a huge surprise as the markets continue to see a lot of choppiness.
Gold has protected wealth for centuries, but buying, storing, and moving it has never been especially convenient. Tokenized gold such as Tether Gold (XAUT), together with digital wallets such as Solonix Wallet, is creating a more flexible way to gain exposure to the metal — while introducing a new set of risks investors need to understand.
Gold has an unusual place in modern markets. It does not generate earnings, pay interest, or depend on a company’s business model. Yet investors, households, and central banks continue to hold it because it has historically served as a store of value and a portfolio diversifier.
The reasons for owning gold have stayed broadly familiar. The way investors access it has not. Coins and bars remain the most direct form of ownership, while exchange-traded products and mining shares offer more liquid market exposure. Now tokenization is adding another option: a digital token linked to physical gold held in a vault.
This does not turn gold into a new asset. It changes the infrastructure around it. Instead of arranging delivery, storage, and insurance for a physical bar, an investor can hold a divisible digital representation in a compatible wallet and transfer it through blockchain networks.
Why investors still turn to goldGold is often discussed as a defensive asset, especially when inflation is elevated, geopolitical risk increases, or confidence in currencies and government finances weakens. Its performance is not predictable, and it can experience long periods of decline or stagnation. Still, it often behaves differently from equities and bonds, which is why some investors use it as a stabilizing element rather than a source of regular income.
Its appeal also comes from what it is not. A share is a claim on a company, a bond is a promise from a borrower, and a bank deposit depends on a financial institution. Physical gold is not another party’s liability. That characteristic does not remove price risk, but it helps explain why the metal remains relevant even after the end of gold-backed monetary systems.
The renewed accumulation of gold by central banks has reinforced that role. Reserve managers commonly cite diversification, liquidity, and the absence of credit risk among the reasons for holding the metal. Private investors may have different objectives, but the underlying idea is similar: gold can provide exposure to an asset that sits outside the usual chain of financial promises.
The practical limits of physical goldOwning coins or bars gives an investor direct control over the metal. It also creates practical work. The gold must be purchased from a reliable dealer, authenticated, transported, stored, and sometimes insured. Smaller products usually carry higher premiums per gram, and selling can involve a meaningful spread between the quoted market price and the amount a dealer is prepared to pay.
For an investor who wants an emergency reserve outside the financial system, these trade-offs may be acceptable. For someone who wants to adjust a position frequently, invest a smaller amount, or transfer value internationally, physical ownership can be cumbersome.
Gold exchange-traded funds solve part of this problem. They are easy to trade through a brokerage account and can provide efficient price exposure. However, investors generally own shares in a financial vehicle rather than an identified piece of metal, and transactions remain tied to brokers, market hours, fund structures, and custodians.
What tokenized gold actually meansTokenized gold is designed to combine physical backing with digital transferability. A provider issues blockchain-based tokens that represent a defined quantity of gold held by the issuer or a custodian. The token can then be stored in a supported digital wallet, divided into smaller units, and transferred without physically moving the underlying bars each time ownership changes.
That structure can make gold more accessible. An investor does not necessarily need to purchase a full coin, bar, or troy ounce. A position can be built in smaller increments, and the token may be moved at any time when the relevant blockchain and service are available.
Tokenization should not be confused with eliminating intermediaries. The investor still relies on the issuer’s terms, the existence and custody of the gold, the integrity of the smart-contract and blockchain infrastructure, and the security of the wallet used to hold the asset. The metal may be traditional; the ownership and settlement system is not.
How Tether Gold (XAUT) worksTether Gold, commonly identified by the ticker XAUT or XAU₮, is one of the best-known gold-backed tokens. According to its issuer, one whole XAUT token represents one fine troy ounce of gold on a London Good Delivery bar, with the underlying metal held in Swiss vaults.
The token can be divided into smaller units, allowing investors to obtain exposure to less than one full ounce. Its market value is intended to follow the value of the represented gold, although the actual trading price can also be influenced by liquidity, platform fees, spreads, and conditions on the blockchain network being used.
XAUT is therefore different from a dollar-linked stablecoin. It is not designed to remain worth one US dollar. Its value moves with gold, which means holders remain exposed to the same fundamental price risk as other gold investors.
Tether’s significance in the gold market is growing rapidly. According to Reuters, the company held approximately 154 tonnes of gold across its products at the end of the first quarter of 2026. Around 22 tonnes were used to back Tether Gold, while the remainder formed part of the reserves supporting the USDT stablecoin. Reuters also noted that, if Tether were a central bank, its gold holdings would place it among the world’s 20 largest official holders.
Where Solonix Wallet fits inA token is only useful to most people when they have a practical way to acquire, hold, view, and transfer it. This is the role of digital-asset platforms and wallets. Solonix.one positions its Solonix Wallet as a digital environment through which eligible clients can work with supported assets, including tokenized gold in the form of XAUT.
For users who want gold exposure without personally arranging storage or transportation, the model can be straightforward: the investor holds the digital token in Solonix Wallet while the physical backing remains within the custody structure established by the token issuer.
The appeal is mainly practical. A user can work with fractional amounts, view the position alongside other supported digital assets, and transfer tokens through compatible blockchain infrastructure. This can be useful for investors who are comfortable with digital assets but want exposure to something linked to a long-established real-world commodity.
Solonix Wallet does not change the economics of gold. It is an access and management layer. The price can still fall, and the investor still needs to understand the token issuer, custody arrangements, fees, supported networks, withdrawal rules, and the legal availability of the service in their jurisdiction.
A more flexible route, not a risk-free oneTokenized gold replaces some of the operational risks of physical ownership with digital and institutional risks. A holder no longer needs to protect a bar at home, but must protect account credentials and follow safe wallet practices. There may be less concern about testing a coin for authenticity, but more reliance on reserve reporting, the issuer’s contractual framework, and the parties safeguarding the underlying metal.
Blockchain transfers can also be unforgiving. Sending an asset to an incorrect address or through an unsupported network may lead to permanent loss. Service interruptions, cyber incidents, changes in regulation, or reduced market liquidity can affect access and execution even when the underlying gold remains in place.
Redemption is another area that deserves attention. A token may be linked to physical gold, but exchanging digital units for delivered bars is normally governed by the issuer’s conditions, minimum sizes, verification requirements, fees, and geographic limitations. Investors should not assume that holding a small fraction of a token means they can request delivery of the equivalent quantity of metal.
Who might find tokenized gold usefulTokenized gold may suit investors who want gold exposure but prefer digital settlement, fractional ownership, and easier transfers. It may also appeal to existing crypto users who want to diversify away from purely crypto-native assets without leaving blockchain-based infrastructure.
It is less likely to satisfy someone whose main purpose is to keep wealth completely outside digital and financial systems. For that objective, personally controlled coins or bars may be closer to the investor’s intention. Likewise, a traditional gold ETF may remain more convenient for people who already manage their portfolio through a regulated securities broker and do not need blockchain transferability.
The relevant question is not whether one format is universally better. It is which combination of ownership structure, liquidity, custody, convenience, and risk best matches the investor’s objective.
Gold is staying the same while access evolvesGold’s basic investment case has changed little. It remains a non-yielding asset whose price is driven by supply and demand, real interest rates, currency expectations, central-bank activity, and investor sentiment. What is changing is the number of ways people can hold and move exposure to it.
Tokenized products such as XAUT are part of a broader effort to bring real-world assets onto digital rails. Platforms such as Solonix.one and tools such as Solonix Wallet can make that structure easier for eligible users to navigate, particularly when the alternative is arranging the purchase and custody of physical metal themselves.
Convenience, however, should not be mistaken for simplicity at the risk level. Before using Solonix Wallet or any other service for tokenized gold, investors should review the provider’s current terms, security model, fees, supported networks, withdrawal procedures, regulatory status, and the issuer’s documentation for the underlying token.
Tokenization can make gold easier to divide and transfer, but it cannot make prices predictable or replace due diligence.
The $4,000 level continues to act as support and an area that has attracted a lot of attention from gold traders and has shown itself to be important yet again.
Gold Technical Analysis
Gold trades at 4,060.1, consolidating just above $4,000 after falling from its February high near $5,700. Source: TradingView The gold market initially fell a bit during the trading session on Friday but did turn around to show signs of life. The $4,000 level continues to act as support and an area that has attracted a lot of attention in general. It’s a large, round, psychologically significant figure, and an area that had previously been resistance.
Key Market Levels Ultimately, this is a market that I think continues to see a lot of volatility and choppiness, mainly due to the fact that gold is highly influenced by the overall interest rate situation, which has been stronger than usual, and the overall situation when it comes to risk appetite. This is a market that continues to see a lot of questions asked about where flows of capital will end up, as the gold market spins its wheels.
Recently, we’ve seen a lot of money flowing into the US dollar away from precious metals, and then it just went sideways between $4,000 and $4,200. There’s nothing on this chart that suggests the market is about to change that attitude, but we also have to keep in mind that headlines coming out of the Middle East could change everything, and it could happen at any given moment. As we drift into the weekend, it makes sense that the market be somewhat quiet, mainly due to people not wanting to be too overexposed in one direction or the other. This is a market that continues to see a lot of chop, and this is a somewhat confused market.
If you’d like to know more about how to trade gold and silver, please visit our educational area.
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We’re heading into the final sessions of the week, and gold continues to hint at a bullish reversal. Admittedly, it also sits close to confirming its next leg lower, leaving a fine line between bullish and bearish scenarios around the 4,000 level—a key area the gold trading community is likely watching.
For a broader perspective, I recently published a couple of StoneX articles examining gold's seasonality in Q3 and market positioning. In a nutshell, seasonality tends to turn more supportive in July before strengthening further in August, delivering a higher historical win rate and stronger average returns.
With gold already down around 30% from its peak to the recent low, the potential for a technical recovery appears reasonable. That is especially true given how unpopular this view has proven on social media whenever I have raised it. As a contrarian, I see that as an encouraging signal rather than a reason for caution.
View related analysis:
US Dollar Rally Builds Momentum, Crude Oil Holds the Key Australian Dollar Jumps as Employment Data Backs RBA Hawkish Bias Japanese Yen Outlook: USD/JPY Breaks Out in Style, GBP/JPY and CAD/JPY in Focus Nasdaq Could Look to KOSPI for Directional Clues Beyond Earnings Gold Futures (GC) Technical Analysis The downtrend on the weekly chart hardly needs pointing out, given gold has fallen by nearly a third this year. Yet for the past four weeks, bears have repeatedly failed to push prices sustainably below 4,000. Weekly trading volumes have also been declining, which is not what we'd typically expect during a grizzly bear market. Meanwhile, the gradual reduction in long futures positions suggests the decline may be a longer-term correction rather than the start of a multi-year top.
A bullish hammer formed three weeks ago, and prices have yet to retest its low. Heading into the final sessions of the week, price action is also shaping a potential inverted hammer around the 4,000 level. Until we see a decisive break or daily close beneath the recent swing lows, I remain on guard for a meaningful bounce.
Crude Oil and the US Dollar Remain the Biggest Risks to Gold Bulls The fly in the ointment is, of course, the stronger US dollar. However, if tensions in the Middle East begin to ease, it could pave the way for a pullback in the US dollar and provide gold with the catalyst for a rebound. That said, I still favour further gains in the US Dollar Index towards 102. If that scenario plays out, gold could first retest its recent swing lows before the anticipated bullish reversal unfolds
The October low around 3900, 100-week EMA (3776.4) and the September VPOC (3680.6) are the next major support levels should gold prices full break down. But if prices can hold above recent swing lows, resistance sits around 4200 and 4300.
Source: COMES, ICE, TradingView
This content was created by an affiliate of FOREX.com and represents the views and opinions of the author/speakers, not the views and opinions of FOREX.com, StoneX Group Inc., or its subsidiaries. The content has not been independently reviewed by FOREX.com.
Eyes on 4,000 as We Head into the Weekend Sentiment is clearly against gold in the near term, after it fell more than 1% on Thursday for its worst daily performance in eight sessions. But the major support level around 4,000 is difficult to ignore. I suspect many traders will feel the same way, which could be compounded by portfolio managers looking to hedge with gold ahead of the weekend.
The risk of a gap higher in oil prices is genuine this weekend, which could of course weigh on sentiment on Monday. But if portfolio managers do use gold as a hedge, it may hold above recent lows to some degree—or at least attempt to.
From a purely technical perspective, dips towards 4,000 could prompt at least a minor rebound. However, for any bounce to have real legs, weaker crude oil prices and a softer US dollar are likely to be required.
The short‑term Elliott Wave outlook in Gold (XAUUSD) indicates that the rally to $4204 marked the completion of wave ((B)), after which the metal turned lower in wave ((C)). The internal subdivision of wave ((C)) is unfolding as a five‑wave structure. Within this sequence, wave (1) ended at $3983.2. The subsequent rally in wave (2) developed as an expanded flat formation. From the wave (1) low, wave A advanced to $4103.7, followed by a pullback in wave B that reached $3959.3. The final leg, wave C, extended higher to $4166.07, completing wave (2) at a higher degree.
From this point, the metal resumed its decline in wave (3). Down from wave (2), wave ((i)) ended at $4099.03, while the corrective rally in wave ((ii)) concluded at $4141.05. The expectation is for Gold to extend two additional lows to complete wave ((v)) of 1. Once this sequence finishes, the market should rally in wave 2 to correct the decline from the July 22 high of wave (2). This corrective phase will precede the next bearish leg.
Gold (XAU/USD) 60-minute Elliott Wave chart
In the near term, the pivot at $4204.6 remains decisive. As long as this level holds, rallies are expected to fail within three or seven swings, reinforcing the downside bias. The structure highlights continued weakness and suggests further bearish potential in the short horizon.
Gold prices fell in Philippines on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 8,011.38 Philippine Pesos (PHP) per gram, down compared with the PHP 8,053.62 it cost on Thursday.
The price for Gold decreased to PHP 93,443.10 per tola from PHP 93,935.79 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in PHP
1 Gram
8,011.38
10 Grams
80,112.95
Tola
93,443.10
Troy Ounce
249,181.80
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Philippines by adapting international prices (USD/PHP) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices fell in Saudi Arabia on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 485.90 Saudi Riyals (SAR) per gram, down compared with the SAR 488.74 it cost on Thursday.
The price for Gold decreased to SAR 5,667.48 per tola from SAR 5,700.55 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in SAR
1 Gram
485.90
10 Grams
4,859.03
Tola
5,667.48
Troy Ounce
15,113.27
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Saudi Arabia by adapting international prices (USD/SAR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
