Track market-moving stories before they get noisy

Gold price (XAU/USD) remains in a tight range at around $4,050 during the European trading session on Tuesday. The precious metal struggles to get direction, with investors awaiting the United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for July, which will be released later this week.

US payrolls seen posting modest July gain as Deutsche Bank flags stable jobless rateEconomists at Deutsche Bank expect Friday’s US July payrolls report to show a modest acceleration in hiring, with “employment growth of +65k, modestly above June’s +57k reading.” They forecast “the Unemployment Rate… to remain at 4.2%, although risks are skewed towards a rounding up to 4.3% if labour force participation rebounds after last month’s sharp decline.” On pay and hours, Deutsche Bank looks for “average hourly earnings… to increase by +0.3% month-on-month, unchanged from June, while average hours worked are forecast to hold at 34.3 hours.”

Investors will closely monitor the data, as it will influence market expectations for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is a 63.6% chance that the Fed will hike interest rates in the September policy meeting.

Higher interest rates by the Fed bode poorly for non-yielding assets, such as Gold.

In Tuesday’s session, investors will pay attention to the US JOLTS Job Openings data for June, which will be published at 14:00 GMT.

Strategists at Danske Bank highlight that “today's most interesting data release will be the US June JOLTs report,” noting that “job openings have shifted moderately higher this year, which has historically predicted rising wage pressures ahead.” This reinforces their broader view that strengthening US labor demand could translate into renewed upward pressure on wages as the cycle matures.

Gold technical analysis

XAU/USD trades flat at around $4,050.80, holding below the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $4,072.96, which keeps the near-term bias bearish and the metal capped by immediate overhead supply.

The Relative Strength Index (14) remains inside the 40.00-60.00 range, hinting at consolidative price action rather than a decisive recovery.

On the topside, initial resistance is defined by the 20-day EMA at $4,072.96; a daily close above this barrier would ease downside pressure and open the way for a stronger corrective bounce towards the July 22 high at around $4,166. On the downside, last week's low at $3,996.13 is the immediate support zone, followed by the June 30 low at $3,941.76.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Economic Indicator JOLTS Job Openings JOLTS Job Openings is a survey done by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics to help measure job vacancies. It collects data from employers including retailers, manufacturers and different offices each month.

Read more.

Gold prices rose in Philippines on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

The price for Gold stood at 7,992.12 Philippine Pesos (PHP) per gram, up compared with the PHP 7,972.14 it cost on Monday.

The price for Gold increased to PHP 93,220.57 per tola from PHP 92,985.43 per tola a day earlier.

Unit measure

Gold Price in PHP

1 Gram

7,992.12

10 Grams

79,922.95

Tola

93,220.57

Troy Ounce

248,582.90

FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Philippines by adapting international prices (USD/PHP) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.

Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

Gold has lost nearly 30% from its January record high, yet bulls continue to defend support around the 4,000 area. While the broader trend remains bearish, improving futures positioning, firmer options sentiment and constructive price action suggest quiet accumulation may be underway, raising the prospect of a bullish breakout.

View related analysis:

Japanese Yen Outlook: USD/JPY Plunge Loses Steam, but Risks Remain FX Futures Positioning: Yen, Euro Bears Caught Short | COT report Australian Dollar Outlook: AUD/USD Rally Meets ISM, NFP and DXY Support Gold Bounces Within Range After Post-FOMC Dollar Selloff Quiet Accumulation Could Be Setting Gold Up for a Breakout Gold prices have lost just under a third of their value against the US dollar since reaching their last record high in January. The bearish trend remains well established, although bulls have done a great job of defending the 4,000 area since late June. This begs the question of whether bears are merely pausing for breath as they await a bearish breakout from a classic trend consolidation pattern, or whether we are instead heading towards a bullish breakout. I am leaning towards the latter.

Gold Futures and Options Point to Mild Accumulation The weekly gold futures chart shows the sideways range it has traded within over the past few weeks. Yet subtle clues of bullish accumulation appear to be forming. Risk reversals are moving higher, suggesting demand for calls is outpacing demand for puts. Put differently, demand for downside protection is now lagging despite prices failing to move lower. Furthermore, net-long exposure among asset managers has been trending higher overall since late April. Granted, it was a touch lower last week, and bullish bets among large speculators have declined over the past three weeks. Still, overall, gold futures traders are more bullish than they were a couple of months ago.

Source: COMEX, CFTC (COT), LSEG

Gold Bulls Defend 4,000 as Momentum Improves The daily chart shows a strong gap higher from Wednesday's close around the 4,000 area. The fact that there were so many failed attempts to break decisively beneath 4,000 before this gap higher suggests to me that gold bulls have been quietly accumulating around these cycle lows.

The 1-hour chart shows price action drifting lower in what appears to be a corrective move, while a double bottom has formed above the gap support. With prices now attempting to extend gains from the monthly pivot point, bulls may be targeting a move towards 4,200. If the US dollar is forced lower alongside the Japanese yen in the coming weeks, it could also allow gold to break above the monthly R1 pivot and head towards the 200-day EMA around 4,300.

Source: COMEX, CFTC (COT), LSEG

Weekly gold chart with COT positioning and options risk reversals showing bullish accumulation as gold consolidates below record highs.

View the full economic calendar

-- Written by Matt Simpson

Follow Matt on Twitter @cLeverEdge

Gold prices rose in Malaysia on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

The price for Gold stood at 534.47 Malaysian Ringgits (MYR) per gram, up compared with the MYR 533.86 it cost on Monday.

The price for Gold increased to MYR 6,233.89 per tola from MYR 6,226.81 per tola a day earlier.

Unit measure

Gold Price in MYR

1 Gram

534.47

10 Grams

5,344.69

Tola

6,233.89

Troy Ounce

16,623.71

FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Malaysia by adapting international prices (USD/MYR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.

Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

Gold is attempting a tepid bounce around $4,050 in Asian trading on Tuesday, stalling a two-day decline amid looming US-Iran risks, as markets brace for a slew of US jobs reports due later this week. US JOLTS Job Openings Survey is in focus on Tuesday.

Gold to keep its range play intactGold buyers lack conviction despite the renewed uptick, as a gradual recovery in the US Dollar (USD) continues to limit the USD-denominated bright metal.

The Greenback sustains its overnight rebound from weekly troughs, following renewed tensions between the United States (US) and Iran and strong US ISM Manufacturing PMI data.

President Donald Trump said on Monday that the US was engaged in talks with Iran, warning that this was Tehran's "last chance" to reach a favorable agreement and bring the five-month-old war to an end.

However, Iran swiftly dismissed the claim, stating that no negotiations were underway or planned.

The ISM said on Monday that its Manufacturing PMI jumped to 55.6 last month, the highest reading since May 2022, from 53.3 in June, while beating the market forecast of 54.

Additionally, fresh concerns around the US Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy outlook, amid a recent New York Times report that Chair Kevin Warsh is reportedly weighing whether the US central bank should hold fewer policy meetings each year, keep the USD’s haven demand underpinned.

All eyes now remain on developments in the Middle East conflict, particularly the potential diplomatic talks and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Also of note are the US JOLTS Job Openings data that will kick off the employment reports due this week, with Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) the main event risk.

The US labor data could help provide fresh clues on the Fed’s interest rate trajectory amid persisting concerns over elevated inflation. Markets continue pricing in a 65% chance that the Fed will raise rates in September, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, after a divided Fed left rates unchanged at its July policy meeting.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

In the daily chart, XAU/USD trades at $4,060.18, maintaining a bearish near-term bias as spot holds below the 21-day simple moving average (SMA) at $4,061.33 and remains well under the 50-, 100- and 200-day SMAs at $4,165.72, $4,406.82 and $4,490.03 respectively. The cluster of overhead averages suggests that the recent recovery is capped within a broader corrective phase, while the Relative Strength Index (14) at 46.91 keeps momentum in a neutral-to-soft zone rather than signaling an oversold market.

On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the 21-day SMA at $4,061.33, followed by the 50-day SMA at $4,165.72, with higher barriers at the 100-day SMA near $4,406.82 and the 200-day SMA around $4,490.03. On the downside, the key structural support is the broken-uptrend line around $3,951.44, where a clear daily close below that level would likely expose a deeper pullback, while holding above it would keep XAU/USD in a broad consolidation beneath the dominant moving average ceiling.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

US labour data in focus as Deutsche Bank flags modest payrolls gainEconomists at Deutsche Bank highlight that, “looking at the US and then the rest of the world in more detail, attention will centre on whether incoming data reinforce the view that the US labour market remains resilient.” In that context, the bank’s economists “expect Friday’s July payrolls report to show employment growth of +65k, modestly above June’s +57k reading, while private payrolls are also expected to rise by +65k after +49k previously,” underscoring their view of a still‑firm, if moderating, labour backdrop.

Economic Indicator JOLTS Job Openings JOLTS Job Openings is a survey done by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics to help measure job vacancies. It collects data from employers including retailers, manufacturers and different offices each month.

Read more.

Despite months of sideways trading, Frank E. Holmes believes the gold bull market is alive and well. During a wide-ranging conversation with Money Metals' Mike Maharrey, the executive chairman of HIVE Digital Technologies and CEO and Chief Investment Officer (CIO) of U.S. Global Investors argued that powerful global trends continue to support higher gold prices. 

From Asian consumer demand and central bank buying to Japan's interest rate shifts, artificial intelligence infrastructure, and rising government debt, Holmes outlined why he sees the current correction as a buying opportunity rather than the end of the bull market.

The "Love Trade" is stronger than the "Fear Trade"Frank Holmes explained that gold demand is driven by two distinct forces: the "fear trade" and the "love trade." Western investors tend to focus on fear-driven buying fueled by inflation, wars, monetary expansion, and financial instability. However, he argued that the larger and more durable driver comes from the love trade.

According to Holmes, roughly 60% of global gold demand comes from people purchasing gold as portable family wealth, particularly throughout Asia and the Middle East. Rising GDP per capita across countries such as China and India has dramatically increased gold ownership over the past two decades. In many emerging economies, physical gold functions as a form of financial insurance where traditional insurance markets are less developed.

Because of these cultural dynamics, Holmes believes every significant correction in gold is met with strong physical buying from Asian consumers, creating an important foundation underneath the market.

China, BRICS, and the Dollar's long-term challengeHolmes also emphasized that global monetary shifts continue to favor gold.

He pointed to more than $350 trillion in global debt and ongoing adherence to Modern Monetary Theory (MMT)-style fiscal policies as long-term catalysts for precious metals. At the same time, he argued that China has steadily weakened the U.S. dollar's international dominance through its Belt and Road Initiative and expanding influence among BRICS nations.

According to Holmes, approximately 75% of United Nations member countries now have financial ties to China through Belt and Road lending. That growing influence has encouraged more international trade to occur outside the traditional dollar system, reducing long-term demand for U.S. dollars while increasing interest in alternative reserve assets such as gold.

Japan may be driving more than investors realizeOne of Frank Holmes' biggest concerns centers on Japan's changing interest rate environment.

For roughly 30 years, Japan maintained near-zero borrowing costs, allowing hedge funds, institutions, pension funds, and insurers to borrow cheaply in yen before investing in higher-yielding assets around the world. That so-called "carry trade" became a major source of global liquidity.

Now that Japan has begun raising interest rates following post-COVID inflation and supply chain disruptions, Holmes believes that money is beginning to flow back into Japan. As investors unwind those leveraged positions, markets ranging from technology stocks to gold experience selling pressure driven by margin calls rather than deteriorating fundamentals.

He noted that Japan holds one of the highest debt-to-GDP ratios among G7 nations, yet nearly half of that debt is owned domestically by the Bank of Japan. As Japanese capital returns home, Holmes expects the unwinding process to continue affecting markets worldwide.

AI spending suggests the global economy remains strongAlthough technology stocks have experienced volatility, Holmes argued that the artificial intelligence boom is far from finished.

He highlighted Meta's plans to build a $14 billion AI data center in El Paso, Texas, requiring approximately 50,000 tons of copper. Strong copper prices, he said, contradict the narrative that AI investment is collapsing.

Holmes also pointed to BlackRock's willingness to invest roughly $10 billion into AI infrastructure, backed by sovereign wealth funds from countries including Norway, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. These enormous capital commitments suggest institutions continue viewing AI as a long-term supercycle rather than a speculative bubble.

To Holmes, copper's continued strength reinforces that conclusion because rising industrial demand remains inconsistent with fears of an imminent AI collapse.

Quant models point to a favorable Gold setupRather than relying solely on macroeconomic forecasts, Holmes uses quantitative models to evaluate market conditions.

Frank Holmes explained that both gold and silver reached historically overbought levels earlier in the year, with silver moving approximately six standard deviations above its longer-term trend before futures exchanges increased margin requirements. Gold also experienced a significant correction as rising interest rates pressured prices.

After falling from roughly three standard deviations above trend to approximately 1.6 standard deviations below, Holmes said his models now indicate an approximately 85% probability that gold prices will be higher over the next 60 trading days.

He emphasized that this outlook comes from statistical market behavior rather than geopolitical predictions, arguing that markets naturally oscillate between periods of excessive optimism and excessive pessimism.

Why rising interest rates don't necessarily hurt GoldMike Maharrey challenged Holmes on a common assumption: if interest rates remain elevated and bonds stay in a long-term bear market, shouldn't that be bearish for gold?

Frank Holmes disagreed.

He argued that central bank gold buying—particularly among countries seeking to diversify away from the U.S. dollar—continues to provide substantial support. At the same time, governments facing mounting fiscal problems repeatedly resort to monetary expansion.

Holmes maintained that investors should hold at least 10% of their portfolios in gold and silver as financial insurance. While acknowledging that some vocal gold advocates own little or no physical metal themselves, he believes the underlying supply-and-demand fundamentals remain overwhelmingly favorable.

Will Central Banks ever stop printing money?The discussion turned to speculation surrounding Kevin Warsh and whether future Federal Reserve leadership might maintain a tougher stance on inflation.

Holmes acknowledged that Warsh projects a more disciplined, fact-based communication style than previous Fed officials. However, he ultimately believes any major recession or financial crisis would lead policymakers back toward monetary stimulus.

He argued that the institutional culture within central banking overwhelmingly favors supporting economic growth through additional liquidity, making continued money creation more likely than prolonged monetary restraint.

That expectation reinforces Holmes' long-term bullish outlook for gold, especially as governments continue expanding deficits.

Could Gold eventually reach $40,000?Perhaps Holmes' boldest projection involved the theoretical value of U.S. gold reserves.

Using a mark-to-market approach that compares America's official gold holdings with total federal debt, Holmes suggested gold could approach $40,000 per ounce if policymakers sought to substantially improve the nation's debt-to-gold ratio.

He also noted that China has increasingly emphasized physical gold ownership while reducing reliance on paper gold products. Holmes believes these policies strengthen demand for physical bullion while also giving the Chinese government greater oversight of domestic wealth.

Smart beta investing and reading the global economyHolmes also discussed his Smart Beta 2.0 investment process, which emphasizes revenue growth, cash flow momentum, and portfolio construction rather than simple stock selection.

For gold mining investments, he favors royalty companies while evaluating quarterly production and revenue growth relative to movements in gold prices.

Outside precious metals, Holmes watches cargo shipping and airline traffic as real-time indicators of global economic activity. He noted that roughly 80% of commodities move by cargo ship, while airline travel has surged from approximately 85,000 daily TSA screenings during 2020 back to roughly 3 million travelers per day.

Despite negative headlines, Holmes believes these indicators demonstrate that the global economy remains resilient.

Military spending, AI, and staying ahead of monetary expansionFrank Holmes concluded by arguing that government spending is increasingly shifting toward defense technology, cybersecurity, and artificial intelligence rather than traditional social programs.

He estimated that approximately $2.5 trillion could flow into military modernization and AI-related investments over time. Combined with continued monetary expansion, he believes these trends will continue creating opportunities across sectors tied to technology, commodities, and precious metals.

Rather than complaining about money printing, Frank E. Holmes encouraged investors to position their portfolios ahead of it. In his view, owning assets that benefit from inflationary policies—including physical gold—remains the most practical long-term strategy.

Treasury yields moved lower as bond traders focused on recent currency interventions. U.S. intervened to support the Japanese yen. Japan is the largest holder of U.S. Treasuries, and the country could be forced to start selling Treasuries to support the local currency. U.S. intervention pushed yen higher and lowered the risk of additional sales of Treasuries by Japan.

Falling Treasury yields did not provide support to gold markets as traders remained focused on longer-term Fed policy outlook. FedWatch Tool indicates that there is a 66.5% probability that Fed will raise rates at the next meeting in September.

Gold continues its attempts to settle below the support level at $4020 – $4040. This support level has been tested many times and proved its strength. In case gold manages to settle below the $4020 level, it will head towards the next support, which is located in the $3930 – $3950 range. A move below the $3930 level will provide gold with an opportunity to gain additional downside momentum.

On the upside, a move above the $4100 level will push gold towards the nearest resistance level, which is located in the $4180 – $4200 range.

Silver Remains Stuck Near Key Support At $56.00 – $57.00

Gold moves sideways within a defined consolidation box just above the major $4,000 support level. The gold market initially gapped higher to kick off the trading session on Monday but has since pulled back to show signs of weakness. With that being the case, the market is still in a larger consolidation area that extends from $4,200 on the top down to about $3,900 on the bottom, with a lot of attention being paid to the obvious and large, round, psychologically significant figure of $4,000.

Gold is going to continue to be somewhat noisy, from what we can see, based on all of the moving factors out there, including the war in the Middle East, which, of course, at this point in time, is still a series of statements being made through the media that, quite frankly, you can’t trust. So, with that being the case, gold is going to have a hard time proving itself to be what I would call convincing. This is a market that will continue to see a lot of noise attached to it, via external factors that can greatly influence risk appetite.

Gold prices rose in Philippines on Monday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

The price for Gold stood at 7,967.72 Philippine Pesos (PHP) per gram, up compared with the PHP 7,925.57 it cost on Friday.

The price for Gold increased to PHP 92,933.79 per tola from PHP 92,442.31 per tola on friday.

Unit measure

Gold Price in PHP

1 Gram

7,967.72

10 Grams

79,679.73

Tola

92,933.79

Troy Ounce

247,816.60

FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Philippines by adapting international prices (USD/PHP) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.

Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

Gold prices rose in Pakistan on Monday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

The price for Gold stood at 36,210.29 Pakistani Rupees (PKR) per gram, up compared with the PKR 35,967.99 it cost on Friday.

The price for Gold increased to PKR 422,349.80 per tola from PKR 419,523.60 per tola on friday.

Unit measure

Gold Price in PKR

1 Gram

36,210.29

10 Grams

362,103.80

Tola

422,349.80

Troy Ounce

1,126,267.00

FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Pakistan by adapting international prices (USD/PKR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.

Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

Gold prices rose in India on Monday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

The price for Gold stood at 12,454.56 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, up compared with the INR 12,367.38 it cost on Friday.

The price for Gold increased to INR 145,266.90 per tola from INR 144,250.70 per tola on friday.

Unit measure

Gold Price in INR

1 Gram

12,454.56

10 Grams

124,544.70

Tola

145,266.90

Troy Ounce

387,376.30

FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.

Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

Gold prices are projected to remain broadly anchored around $4,000 in 2026 as the Federal Reserve’s rate hold offsets pressure from still-elevated US yields. The Gold price in US Dollars entered the weekend close at around $4,040 an ounce after a volatile few sessions around the Federal Reserve decision.

XAU/USD gained 1.5% on Wednesday and another 0.5% on Thursday, before falling 1.6% on Friday. The metal still recorded a modest 0.85% gain during July, although it remains around 6.4% lower since the beginning of 2026.

MUFG said gold had held near $4,060 after the Fed left interest rates unchanged, with the decision easing some of the immediate pressure on non-yielding assets.

“Gold traded near USD4,060/oz after gaining nearly 1% as the US Fed left interest rates unchanged,” the bank said.

The Fed voted 9-3 to maintain rates, although policymakers kept the door open to further tightening if inflation remains too high.

According to MUFG, “lower short-term Treasury yields following the decision supported bullion by reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.”

Image: Gold price in USD 1-month chart The price of Gold traded in a broad $3,963–$4,202 range during July before ending the month close to $4,040.

Geopolitical risk also continues to provide support. MUFG pointed to renewed US strikes on Iran, which have kept Middle East tensions elevated even as energy markets avoided a more serious disruption.

The bank said the Fed decision had offered “near-term support for gold”, but stopped short of calling for a sustained breakout.

Gold Price Outlook: $4,000 Remains the Centre of the Range MUFG expects competing forces to keep bullion broadly range-bound.

“Expectations of higher-for-longer interest rates, and persistent Middle East tensions are likely to keep the metal trading within a broad range around the USD4,000/oz level,” it said.

That leaves the near-term outlook finely balanced.

Softer Treasury yields and geopolitical demand should help defend the $4,000 area, while renewed Fed tightening expectations would make it harder for gold to build a lasting move higher.

Image: XAU/USD year-to-date chart MUFG’s view is less about a directional surge and more about consolidation: support from the Fed pause and geopolitical risk on one side, offset by the prospect that US rates remain restrictive for longer.

Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.

Gold price tumbles nearly 1.50% on Friday as the US Dollar recovers some ground after Japanese authorities intervened in the foreign exchange markets a day ago, driving the Greenback to a 30-day low before recovering, according to the US Dollar Index (DXY). The XAU/USD trades at $4,045.

XAU/USD drops as Treasury yields, Fed dissents and inflation risks pressure BullionThe yellow metal is poised to finish the week with losses of over 0.11%, unable to decisively crack the $4,100 milestone.  At the same time, the DXY, which tracks the performance of the buck’s value against six currencies, is down 0.05%, at 99.91, but failed to provide a tailwind for Gold prices as US Treasury yields are soaring.

The US 10-year Treasury note is yielding 4.745%, up almost seven and a half basis points, as investors assess whether the Federal Reserve (Fed) will raise rates to tame inflation.

On Thursday, US economic data showed that economic growth was softer than projected in Q2 2025, down from 2.1% in Q1 to 1.5% QoQ. The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, came in at 3.3% YoY, down from 3.4%, a relief for the US central bank, which decided to keep rates unchanged on Wednesday.

During the day, three FOMC members who voted for rate hikes revealed the reasons for their vote. 

Dallas Fed's Lorie Logan suggested that inflation risks are tilting upward and favored raising interest rates to improve the balance of the outlook. Beth Hammack from the Cleveland Fed mentioned that the policy rate is still not restrictive enough as inflation has been “too high for too long. The Minneapolis Fed's Neel Kashkari said he preferred to raise rates by 25 basis points as he favors a gradual approach to monetary policy rather than “bolder actions.”

Money markets trimmed hawkish bets after the July meeting. Before, the odds for a rate hike in September were nearly 60%. As of writing, the chances were trimmed to 31%, with the odds for a hold increasing near 70%, according to Prime Terminal data.

Source: Prime TerminalUS economic data showed that consumers are becoming optimistic about the economic outlook. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment for July improved from its preliminary reading of 54.4 to 55.2. At the same time, inflation expectations remained unchanged at 4.2% for one year and 3.3% for five years.

Joanne Hsu, the Director of the Survey of Consumers, wrote, “Broad-based improvements were seen across all groups by income, education, wealth, age, and political party.”

Aside from this, geopolitics continued to play a role in the financial markets. Rising Oil prices are a headwind for Bullion. The escalation of the Gulf War keeps the US crude benchmark, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), above $84.00 per barrel

XAU/USD technical outlook: Gold retraces below $4,050, eyes on $4,000Gold’s price shifted downwards steadily after two days of strong gains, and sits below the $4,100 level. The momentum shifted back bearishly as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) crossed under 50, signaling decreasing buying interest. 

On the downside, initial support is at the July 24 low of $4,022. A breach of the latter exposes the psychologically important $4,000 level and the June 17 daily low of $3,959.

For a bullish continuation, buyers need to reclaim $4,100, ahead of the July 22 daily high of $4,165, potentially testing the 50-day Simple Moving Average at $4,185. The July 6 peak at $4,202 is the next resistance level. 

Gold daily chart Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

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The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

Meanwhile, the yield of 30-year Treasuries climbed above the 5.25% level. Geopolitical tensions and massive investments in AI will lead to higher inflation, which is bearish for bonds. In addition, bond traders are worried about long-term sustainability of U.S. finances. The yield of 30-year Treasuries has reached levels that were last seen back in 2007.

Recent data shows that higher yields put pressure on investment demand for gold. Meanwhile, central banks have mostly continued to buy gold, using the strong pullback from historic highs as an opportunity to boost their gold reserves.

FedWatch Tool indicates that there is a 64.8% probability that Fed will raise rates at the next meeting in September. Hawkish Fed policy outlook serves as a key negative catalyst for gold.

U.S. dollar was mostly flat against a broad basket of currencies as the forex market tried to stabilize after Fed decision and massive intervention in USD/JPY. The dynamics of the U.S. dollar did not have a material impact on gold markets today.

Currently, gold is trying to settle below the support level at $4020 – $4040. This support has has been tested several times and proved its strength. In case gold manages to settle below the $4020 level, it will head towards the next support level at $3930 – $3950.

On the upside, a move above the $4100 level will open the way to the test of the resistance level at $4180 – $4200.

Gold (XAU/USD) struggled to make a decisive move in either direction as the persistent US Dollar (USD) weakness was offset by a widening conflict in the Middle East. July employment data from the United States (US) could trigger a big reaction in Gold, while the near-term technical outlook highlights a lack of buyer interest.

Middle East crisis caps Gold’s upsideGold started the week with a bullish gap as geopolitical tensions eased after the US announced over the weekend that it put military operations against Iran on hold and Iran also paused its retaliatory strikes. However, the yellow metal erased a portion of its daily gains later on Monday after Iran clarified that they were not engaged in direct ceasefire talks with the US.

Reports of Saudi forces joining the conflict by launching attacks on Iran-aligned groups in Iraq as retaliation to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' (IRGC) drone attacks on Saudi oil facilities pointed to a widening conflict, rather than a return to diplomacy. Additionally, Iran claimed an attack on a US military base located in Jordan. Gold turned south on Tuesday and lost more than 1% on the day.

On Wednesday, the USD came under heavy selling pressure and allowed XAU/USD to stage a rebound. Although the Federal Reserve (Fed) refrained from delivering a dovish message following the July policy meeting, the decision to leave the policy rate unchanged in the range of 3.5%-3.75% triggered a USD selloff, as markets had priced in about a 30% chance of a 25 basis points (bps) interest rate hike heading into the event, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh’s comments in the post-meeting press conference scored a 7/10 on FXS Speechtracker versus a historic 6/10, underscoring a firmer commitment to the inflation fight. The repeated insistence that “only one target and it is 2%” and “we will deliver the 2% target,” alongside remarks that inflation “cannot be cured in 9 weeks” and that the committee “will not hesitate to act,” signaled a resolute, patient hawkish stance despite acknowledging “impressive resilience” in the economy. The emphasis on trend over short-term data, higher nominal and real yields, and a robust, non-inertial policy debate pointed to a Fed comfortable with tight conditions for longer.

According to TD Securities, the latest FOMC decision to leave interest rates unchanged has supported bullion, but it was Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s stance that proved more pivotal. The bank notes that “the FOMC held interest rates steady, but it was Fed Chair Warsh’s willingness to look through an inflation shock and steer away from data dependency that has given gold a lift higher.” Even so, TD Securities cautions that the broader policy backdrop remains a constraint, stressing that “we continue to believe that market expectations for rate hikes will keep a lid on any material bullishness across precious metals.” 

The USD continued to weaken against its major rivals on Thursday and Gold managed to close the second consecutive day in positive territory. The US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that the US’ Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew at an annual rate of 1.5% in the second quarter, falling short of the market expectation and the first-quarter’s 2.1% expansion. However, the unprecedented decline seen in USD/JPY suggested that the USD weakness was most likely caused by a suspected market intervention by Japanese authorities to support the Japanese Yen, rather than a change in the underlying fundamentals of the USD. With the dust settling down on Friday and investors shifting their focus back to the Middle East, the USD staged a rebound and XAU/USD turned south, retracing a majority of its two-day rebound. 

Gold investors to stay focused on Middle East, Fed outlookThe US economic calendar will feature the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) reports on Monday and Wednesday, respectively. Ahead of Friday’s critical official employment report, however, PMI figures are unlikely to have a lasting impact on Gold’s performance. Still, the USD could struggle to find demand and help XAU/USD keep its footing in case either of the headline PMIs falls into contraction territory below 50.

Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) rose by 57K in June and missed the market expectation of 110K by a wide margin, following three consecutive months of robust growth. A disappointing NFP print below 50K in July could revive concerns over worsening conditions in the labor market and weigh on the USD with the immediate reaction.

Conversely, a reading above 80K is likely to be seen as ‘good enough’ for the Fed to continue to prioritize taming inflation and support the USD. The CME FedWatch Tool shows that markets are currently pricing in about a 35% probability of a rate increase in September. If there is a significant upside surprise in NFP, with a print above 120K, markets could quickly position themselves for a September rate hike. Current market positioning suggests that the USD is likely to rally in this scenario and trigger another leg lower in XAU/USD heading into the weekend.

Economists at Wells Fargo anticipate a steady US labor backdrop over the coming months, noting that they “expect the job market to remain broadly stable, with payroll growth averaging ~80K per month and the unemployment rate holding near 4.2% for the remainder of the year.” While they acknowledge that the recent decline in unemployment “did not occur for the ‘right’ reasons,” Wells Fargo argues that the “sideways move in the unemployment rate signals that labor demand and supply are roughly in balance,” reinforcing the view of a jobs market that is neither overheating nor sharply weakening. 

Investors will also pay close attention to comments from Fed policymakers throughout the week, especially from Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, who dissented by voting in favor of a rate hike in the last Fed decision.

In case policymakers voice concerns over the inflation outlook and risks posed by the prolonged conflict in the Middle East, the USD is likely to stay resilient and limit XAU/USD’s recovery attempts. On the other hand, Gold could gain traction and push higher if US central bank officials support a steady policy for longer, dampening interest rate hike expectations by citing a cooling economy on the back of the disappointing second-quarter growth data.

Analysts at Commerzbank highlight that the latest Fed decision was far from unanimous, noting that “three of the five regional Fed presidents who serve on the Federal Open Market Committee voted in favor of a rate hike,” underscoring a meaningful hawkish contingent within the FOMC. They argue that Chair Kevin Warsh “apparently assumes that the financial markets will do the Fed’s work for it,” allowing higher market yields to shoulder more of the tightening burden in the near term. However, Commerzbank cautions that this strategy has clear limits: “If inflation does not slow noticeably soon, it will not be enough to merely speak resolutely. Then the Fed will also have to take action.” 

Finally, fresh developments surrounding the crisis in the Middle East are likely to continue to impact Gold’s valuation. A retreat in military action could support the precious metal, while a further escalation and expansion of the conflict could continue to feed into global inflation fears and hurt it.

FXStreet Economic CalendarGold technical analysis: Bulls hesitateThe Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the daily chart fell short of clearing the 50 neutral level, and Gold’s break above the descending trend line and the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) on Thursday failed to attract technical buyers.

The $3,950-$3,920 area stays as a key technical support, where the lower limit of the descending triangle formation and the beginning point of the November-February trend align. If Gold breaks below this region, $3,800 (static level, round level) could be seen as the next bearish target ahead of $3,720 (static level).

On the upside, $4,185 (50-day SMA) could be seen as the next resistance level in case Gold manages to confirm the $4,060-$4,070 (20-day SMA, descending trend line) area as support. If the bullish momentum builds up afterward, $4,240 (Fibonacci 78.6% retracement of the November-February uptrend) could be seen as an interim resistance level before $4,380 (static level).

Gold daily chart Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

Commerzbank’s Carsten Fritsch notes that gold briefly traded above USD 4,100 after the Fed meeting as markets pared back expectations of further rate hikes. Fed funds futures nevertheless continue to imply additional tightening, while persistent inflation is keeping those expectations alive. World Gold Council data point to weak jewellery demand and positive but slower ETF inflows, while Commerzbank expects central bank purchases to remain strong but below last year’s level.

High prices damp demand but support persists"The gold price rose after Wednesday's Fed meeting and briefly exceeded USD 4,100 per troy ounce yesterday."

"The persistent expectation of Fed interest rate rises should counteract any rise in the gold price."

"These expectations are unlikely to fade for the time being, as inflation is not yet showing sufficient signs of easing."

"For the second half of the year, the WGC does not anticipate any significant upturn in demand."

"Whilst central bank gold purchases are expected to remain strong due to portfolio diversification and as a hedge against inflation and risks, they are likely to remain below the previous year’s level."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

TL;DR: A weaker Dollar usually lifts Gold and Silver, but this week’s decline is being driven by fading Fed hike bets and a stock rally rather than falling real yields or safe-haven demand — leaving precious metals without their usual tailwind.

Why the Usual Dollar-Gold Relationship Isn’t Holding A weaker Dollar is usually regarded as a straightforward bullish signal for Gold and Silver. This week has been a timely reminder that the relationship is far more complicated. The Dollar has fallen broadly, with EUR/USD gaining around 1.3% for the week so far, yet the rebound in precious metals has been comparatively subdued.

Rather than confirming the familiar inverse Dollar-Gold relationship, the latest price action highlights a more important point: Gold and Silver respond not to the Dollar itself, but to the forces driving the Dollar.

What Kind of Dollar Weakness Actually Matters The key lies in understanding what kind of Dollar weakness the market is experiencing. Gold and Silver typically perform best when the Dollar is pressured by fear — during financial crises, recession fears, or aggressive declines in real interest rates. In those environments, a weaker Dollar and stronger safe-haven demand reinforce each other, often producing powerful rallies in precious metals.

This week’s price action, however, has been driven by almost the opposite set of forces.

Why the Dollar Actually Fell This Week The Dollar has softened because markets are becoming less convinced the Federal Reserve needs to tighten policy again in the near term. Wednesday’s FOMC meeting was interpreted as patient rather than urgent, despite three policymakers dissenting in favor of an immediate rate hike, and that view was reinforced by Thursday’s weaker-than-expected second-quarter GDP report and another cooling reading on core PCE inflation.

At the same time, risk-on sentiment staged a massive return. Microsoft’s blockbuster earnings and stronger cloud growth triggered a more than 15% rally in the stock, helping propel the NASDAQ up 2.78% and the Dow 1.19% on Thursday. Optimism spilled into Asia, where the KOSPI surged 17.91%. Rather than rotating into defensive assets, investors have been rotating into equities.

Why This Distinction Matters for Precious Metals That distinction explains why Gold and Silver have struggled to capitalize on the weaker Dollar. Precious metals don’t trade against the Dollar in isolation; they trade primarily off real interest rates and demand for protection. The Dollar often serves as a convenient proxy because it usually moves alongside US real yields.

When real yields fall, the Dollar weakens and the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets declines, creating a powerful tailwind for Gold. Likewise, when markets become anxious, both the Dollar and Gold often benefit from safe-haven demand, though Gold can outperform if falling yields dominate. Those overlapping relationships are why the inverse Dollar-Gold correlation has become conventional wisdom.

Why Those Relationships Have Diverged This Week This week, however, those relationships have diverged. Treasury markets have remained remarkably stable, with the 10-year yield holding comfortably within its recent 4.6%–4.7% range instead of falling alongside the Dollar. Without a meaningful decline in real yields, Gold has lost one of its most important fundamental supports.

At the same time, surging equity markets have reduced the need for portfolio hedges, weakening safe-haven demand. As a result, the weaker Dollar has provided only a modest lift, while the absence of lower real yields and the strength of risk appetite have prevented Gold and Silver from mounting the kind of breakout investors often associate with broad Dollar weakness.

ActionForex’s Technical View on Gold and Silver Technically, Gold’s latest rebound delays rather than negates the broader bearish outlook. The consolidation from 3,942.23 appears to be extending into another recovery leg, with a break of 4,116.08 resistance now possible. However, gains should be capped by the falling 55-day EMA, currently at 4,214.50. Once the consolidation completes, a break below 3,942.23 remains the preferred scenario to resume the broader decline from 5,598.38.

Silver presents a similar technical picture. The corrective rebound from 54.77 could extend toward 60.92, but the falling 55-day EMA, now at 63.67, is expected to limit upside. Once the current consolidation phase runs its course, the broader downtrend is expected to resume with a break below 54.77.

Key Takeaways Gold and Silver have lagged this week’s broad Dollar decline because the weakness stems from fading Fed hike bets, not falling real yields or safe-haven demand. The 10-year Treasury yield has held steady within 4.6%–4.7%, denying Gold the real-yield tailwind it typically needs to rally alongside a weaker Dollar. A risk-on surge — led by Microsoft’s earnings and a 17.91% KOSPI rally — has reduced demand for defensive hedges, further capping precious metals. Gold’s consolidation from 3,942.23 may extend toward 4,116.08, but the falling 55-day EMA at 4,214.50 should cap gains ahead of a resumed decline. Silver’s rebound from 54.77 faces a similar ceiling near its falling 55-day EMA at 63.67, with the broader downtrend expected to resume below 54.77.

ActionForex

ActionForex.com was set up back in 2004 with the aim to provide insightful analysis to forex traders, serving the trading community for two decades. We started providing only a daily and a mid-day report, now known as Action Insights. Gradually, we added a lot more in-house contents to the site. Technical Outlook section was expanded to cover more pairs. In addition to that, Top Movers, Heat Map, Pivot Point Charts and Pivot Meters, Action Bias and Volatility Charts, are tools used by traders from all over the world.

Gold prices fell in Saudi Arabia on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

The price for Gold stood at 492.54 Saudi Riyals (SAR) per gram, down compared with the SAR 495.39 it cost on Thursday.

The price for Gold decreased to SAR 5,744.95 per tola from SAR 5,778.18 per tola a day earlier.

Unit measure

Gold Price in SAR

1 Gram

492.54

10 Grams

4,925.45

Tola

5,744.95

Troy Ounce

15,319.64

FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Saudi Arabia by adapting international prices (USD/SAR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.

Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

Gold prices fell in Pakistan on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

The price for Gold stood at 36,276.84 Pakistani Rupees (PKR) per gram, down compared with the PKR 36,491.47 it cost on Thursday.

The price for Gold decreased to PKR 423,126.40 per tola from PKR 425,629.40 per tola a day earlier.

Unit measure

Gold Price in PKR

1 Gram

36,276.84

10 Grams

362,768.80

Tola

423,126.40

Troy Ounce

1,128,337.00

FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Pakistan by adapting international prices (USD/PKR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.

Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

Gold is seeing a brief pullback from weekly highs of $4,120 early Friday, but remains on track to end its four-month losing streak.

Gold sellers return as USD finds haven demandGold is failing to resist above the $4,100 level, despite closing above it on Thursday, as the US Dollar (USD) stages a solid rebound from six-week lows against its six major currency rivals.

Even though mediator Pakistan insisted that negotiations between Tehran and Washington are ongoing, the US’s “heavy” strikes on Iran in retaliation for fresh attacks targeting American forces in Jordan revive the haven demand for the Greenback.

In response, Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said in an X post that “Americans have grown accustomed to making up for the slaps they receive on the battlefield by spilling the blood of the innocent. They will pay the price.”

The USD also draws support from persistent hopes that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will opt for interest rate hikes later this year, despite Chair Kevin Warsh’s noncommittal stance on further tightening during the post-policy-meeting press conference on Wednesday.

Fed pause underscores debate as HSBC stays neutral on duration and backs the DollarAnalysts at HSBC highlight that the US Fed Reserve left interest rates unchanged for a fifth consecutive meeting, “in line with expectations,” but stress that the “9-3 vote revealed a lively debate within the FOMC.” In fixed income, they note that “we maintain a neutral duration stance and favour high-quality investment grade credit to capture attractive yields and coupon income.” HSBC adds that they “remain positive on the US dollar, supported by resilient US economic fundamentals and relatively attractive interest rate differentials.”

Beyond the USD comeback, Gold also bears the brunt from disappointing Chinese official business PMI data for July, while traders turn cautious ahead of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) monetary policy decision.

Financial markets experienced intense volatility in early American trading hours on Thursday amid a suspected Japanese forex intervention that sent the Japanese Yen (JPY) skyrocketing and the USD/JPY pair down roughly 600 pips in a matter of minutes.

The USD/JPY slump battered the Greenback across the board, briefly allowing Gold to regain the $4,100 threshold.

Further, mixed US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Jobless Claims data added to the weight on the USD, lending additional support to the bright metal.

Looking ahead, Gold could see a tailwind on a potential hawkish hold decision by the BoJ, which could revive JPY buyers and smash USD alongside. However, if Middle East hostilities intensify, Gold will likely feel the pain from the increased haven demand for the US Dollar.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

In the daily chart, XAU/USD trades at $4,082.83, keeping a bearish near-term bias as spot remains below the major simple moving averages. The 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at $4,185.76, together with the 100-day SMA at $4,426.31 and the 200-day SMA at $4,490.85, all sit overhead and suggest that rallies are still capped within a broader corrective phase, while the 21-day SMA at $4,073.95 offers nearby dynamic support. The Relative Strength Index (14) around 48.3 is slightly below the midline, hinting at subdued momentum and reinforcing the notion of consolidation within a broader downside context.

On the topside, initial resistance emerges at the 50-day SMA near $4,185.76, and a daily close above this barrier would be needed to ease immediate bearish pressure and open the way toward the 100-day SMA at $4,426.31 and then the 200-day SMA at $4,490.85. On the downside, the first support is aligned with the 21-day SMA at $4,073.95; a sustained break beneath this level would expose lower levels and suggest that sellers are regaining control of the daily structure.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

Spot gold daily chart shows larger trend structure. Source: TradingView Resistance Stands in the Way If gold can move above the recent lower swing high of $4,166, it may be able to advance further. A downtrend line would be broken before reaching that high, providing an earlier sign of strengthening. However, potentially significant resistance is nearby, marked by the falling 50-day moving average at $4,193 and the lower swing high at $4,203. That high is a key part of the downtrend structure, and a sustained move above it would therefore provide a trend reversal signal.

There is also a resistance zone indicated by the long-term rising trendline that has recently continued to be tested as resistance and has held so far. This creates a series of increasingly important resistance levels between $4,166 and $4,203 that gold must overcome to strengthen the bullish case.

$4,203 Holds the Reversal Key The uptrend line would need to be recovered before the bearish implications of recent consolidation below the line are negated. A reclaim of the 50-day moving average would improve the chance for that to occur but it does not guarantee it. Ultimately, for a bullish trend reversal signal to trigger, gold would need to close above the lower swing high of $4,203.

That would also trigger a breakout from a bottom consolidation pattern, which has taken the form of a possible double bottom pattern. Therefore, the strength emerging from the $3,996 pullback low is encouraging, but the $4,203 level remains the key test of whether that early strength can develop into a confirmed trend reversal.

FG: TSX-V

, /PRNewswire/ -- Falcon Gold Corp. (TSXV: FG) (FSE: 3FA) (OTC-Pink: FGLDF) ("Falcon" or the "Company") announces a non-brokered private placement of up to 11,666,667 units (the "Units") at a price of C$0.03 per Unit for gross proceeds of up to C$350,000.

Each Unit will consist of one common share of the Company and one transferable common share purchase warrant. Each warrant will entitle the holder to acquire one additional common share of the Company at an exercise price of C$0.05 for a period of three (3) years from the date of issuance.

The net proceeds of the private placement will be used to advance the Company's Northwestern Ontario property portfolio and for general working capital.

Management may participate in the private placement. Any such participation will constitute a related party transaction within the meaning of Multilateral Instrument 61-101 – Protection of Minority Security Holders in Special Transactions. The Company expects to rely on the exemptions from the formal valuation and minority shareholder approval requirements contained in Sections 5.5(a) and 5.7(1)(a) of MI 61-101, as neither the fair market value of the securities issued to, nor the consideration paid by, such related parties is expected to exceed 25% of the Company's market capitalization.

All securities issued pursuant to the private placement will be subject to a statutory hold period of four months and one day from the closing date, in accordance with applicable securities laws.

The Company may pay finder's fees in connection with the private placement, in accordance with the policies of the TSX Venture Exchange.

Completion of the private placement is subject to the approval of the TSX Venture Exchange and the satisfaction of customary closing conditions.

ON BEHALF OF THE BOARD OF DIRECTORS
FALCON GOLD CORP.

About Falcon Gold Corp.

Falcon Gold Corp. is a Canadian mineral exploration company focused on the acquisition, exploration, and advancement of precious and battery metals opportunities across the Americas, with a portfolio spanning established mining camps and emerging exploration districts. Its flagship asset, the Central Canada Gold Project, is located approximately 20 kilometres southeast of Agnico Eagle's Hammond Reef Gold Deposit in northwestern Ontario. The project lies within the highly prospective Quetico Fault Zone, a major regional structural corridor interpreted as a key control on gold mineralization in the district. The Hammond Reef deposit is associated with a northeast-trending structural system linked to this broader regional framework, highlighting the significance of the geological setting. The Central Canada property has a documented exploration and development history spanning more than a century. Early work between 1901 and 1907 included shallow shaft development and small-scale production from high-grade material processed through stamp milling. Between 1930 and 1935, Central Canada Mines Ltd. further advanced the project with deeper underground development, crosscutting, and the installation of a small-scale gold mill. Subsequent exploration programs have included diamond drilling campaigns that returned multiple high-grade gold intercepts, supporting the presence of significant mineralization within the system. Beyond its flagship project, Falcon Gold maintains a diversified portfolio of Canadian exploration assets. This includes a 49% interest in the Burton Gold Property in partnership with IAMGOLD near Sudbury, Ontario, exploration-stage gold targets in British Columbia through the Spitfire and Sunny Boy claims, and the Great Burnt Copper-Gold Project in central Newfoundland.

Cautionary Language and Forward-Looking Statements

This news release may contain "forward-looking statements" and "forward-looking information" (collectively, "forward-looking statements") within the meaning of applicable securities laws, including but not limited to statements relating to the timing and content of future work programs, including planned drilling programs, geological interpretations, receipt of property titles, and other corporate and technical matters. Forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, expectations, estimates, and projections as of the date of this news release and are subject to known and unknown risks, uncertainties, and other factors that may cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied herein. In some cases, forward-looking statements can be identified by terminology such as "may," "should," "intend," "expect," "plan," "anticipate," "believe," "estimate," "project," "potential," or "continue," or the negative of these terms, or other comparable terminology. Forward-looking statements in this news release may include, but are not limited to, statements regarding planned drilling activities on the Central Canada Gold Project, which is currently permitted for up to 20 drill holes, and the interpretation and potential extension of mineralization along structural trends within the project area. There can be no assurance that the Company's exploration programs will proceed as currently contemplated or that they will achieve their intended objectives. Forward-looking statements are inherently subject to significant business, economic, competitive, and geological uncertainties and contingencies. Actual results may differ materially from those currently anticipated. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements, as there can be no assurance that plans, assumptions, or expectations will prove to be accurate.

Neither TSX Venture Exchange nor its Regulation Services Provider (as that term is defined in the policies of the TSX Venture Exchange) accepts responsibility for the adequacy or accuracy of this release.

SOURCE Falcon Gold Corp.

TD Securities strategists explain that Gold has bounced after the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) left rates unchanged and Chair Warsh signaled tolerance for an inflation shock. However, they argue that shifting hike expectations from September to December does not materially change the outlook. Entrenched CTA (Commodity Trading Advisors) short positions require a move above $4,200/oz for minimal covering, with $4,300/oz needed for notable net longs.

CTA shorts face high covering threshold"The FOMC held interest rates steady, but it was Fed Chair Warsh’s willingness to look through an inflation shock and steer away from data dependency that has given gold a lift higher."

"Hike pricing has since shifted away from September out to December. However, the market shifting hikes out a few months down the road does little to alter the prevailing outlook for the yellow metal."

"We continue to believe that market expectations for rate hikes will keep a lid on any material bullishness across precious metals."

"Pricing simulations highlight the potential for asymmetric upside with prices closer to $4,300/oz likely to see notable net long positions, however, we expect the gold upside will fall short of hitting those upside CTA scenario levels."

"CTAs still have a high bar to see any short covering with a move above the $4,200/oz region needed to catalyze only very minimal short covering."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)