Track market-moving stories before they get noisy

Understanding expectations for US interest rates can help traders explain gold’s price moves. Because gold pays no interest, expectations of lower rates can make it more attractive, while higher rates can put pressure on its price.

Markets react to changing expectations before the Federal Reserve makes a decision. Following these shifts alongside the US dollar and price chart can help traders interpret news and plan trades.

Why interest rates matter for gold

Choosing gold means giving up the income that money could earn elsewhere. This is called its opportunity cost. Investors weigh this forgone income against the potential gains from holding gold.

For example, $10,000 in an account paying 5% annually could earn $500 before tax over one year. If the rate falls to 3%, that income drops to $300. Choosing gold now means giving up $200 less in annual interest. This comparison helps explain how interest rates influence investment decisions, although gold’s potential gains and losses also matter.

What investments compete with gold?

Investors compare gold with investments that pay income, including:

Savings accounts: Pay interest on deposited money. Bonds: Pay interest on money lent to governments or companies. Dividend-paying stocks: Share part of a company’s profits with shareholders. Higher income from these investments can make gold less attractive. However, investors also consider risk and may hold gold to spread their investments or protect against uncertainty.

The costs of holding gold

Buying or trading gold can involve costs that reduce your profit. These are separate from the interest you give up by choosing gold over an income-paying investment.

Physical gold: You may pay for storage, insurance and fees when buying or selling. Gold-backed funds: These usually charge a fee to manage the fund. Gold CFDs: Costs may include the spread—the gap between the buying and selling price—commission and charges for keeping a trade open overnight. If you hold a position for several days, overnight charges can add up, meaning gold may need to move further in your favour to cover the costs.

Gold-mining shares are another option, but you are investing in a company. Its profits depend on gold prices as well as expenses such as energy and wages, and how well the business is run. Mining shares can therefore move differently from gold itself.

Why expectations matter before rates change Gold can move when traders change their views about future interest rates. They do not wait for the Federal Reserve to announce a decision.

If reports show a slowing economy and falling inflation, traders may expect the Fed to cut rates. This can help gold rise before rates actually fall. Strong economic figures or stubborn inflation may lead traders to expect fewer cuts—or even a rate increase—which can put pressure on gold.

What matters is how expectations change. For example, traders might initially expect the Fed to cut rates three times before the end of the year. After stronger economic news, they may expect only two cuts over that same period. Gold could fall because interest rates are now expected to stay higher than previously thought, even though cuts are still expected.

Following these changes can help explain gold’s moves better than looking only at today’s interest rate.

What changes interest rate expectations? Traders follow economic reports and Fed comments to assess the likely direction of policy. The Fed also considers incoming data, the economic outlook and the risks facing the economy when making decisions.

The main information to watch includes:

Inflation reports: CPI and PCE show how quickly prices are rising. Inflation above expectations can delay cuts or increase expectations of higher rates. Employment reports: Hiring, unemployment and wage growth help show whether the labour market is strengthening or weakening. Spending and business activity: Retail sales and business surveys provide further clues about demand and economic growth. Fed communication: Statements, speeches and press conferences can change expectations even when rates remain unchanged. A Fed message favouring tighter policy to control inflation is often called hawkish, while one favouring easier policy is called dovish. These terms help describe the message, but traders still need to compare it with what markets already expected.

The same applies to economic reports. Inflation may fall from the previous month but still exceed the forecast, causing traders to reduce their expectations of rate cuts. It also helps to read beyond the headline, because strong hiring combined with slower wage growth may send a mixed message.

How to follow interest rate expectations Economic calendars, broker analysis and financial news can help you track changes in the outlook for US interest rates. Focus on whether new information changes what markets expect the Fed to do next.

Economic calendars: Compare results with forecasts. Unexpected figures can change rate expectations. Broker analysis and financial news: Look for explanations of why markets expect more cuts, fewer cuts or a rate increase. US bond yields: Rising yields, especially the two-year Treasury yield, can suggest expectations of higher rates or fewer cuts. Why gold can fall after a rate cut A rate cut does not guarantee that gold will rise because the decision may already be reflected in its price. If the Fed delivers an expected cut but suggests that further cuts are unlikely, traders may revise their future rate expectations higher. Gold could then fall despite the cut.

The reverse can happen when the Fed leaves rates unchanged but signals that cuts are approaching. Gold may rise because the future outlook has become more favourable. This is why the statement and press conference can matter as much as the decision itself.

Other sources of demand can also outweigh the effect of rates. Geopolitical conflict, financial uncertainty and central-bank buying may support gold even when yields are rising, so the relationship should be treated as a useful guide rather than a fixed rule.

Practical trading strategies Follow the trend and wait for a pullback

Use rate expectations to identify a possible direction, then check whether the chart supports it. If markets increasingly expect lower rates and gold is making higher highs and higher lows, you could watch for a pullback towards support. Support is an area where buyers previously helped stop a decline.

For a possible sell trade, expectations of higher rates combined with a downward gold trend may justify watching for a rally towards resistance, where sellers previously appeared. In either case, wait for signs that price is turning back in the trend’s direction rather than assuming the level will hold.

Let the first news reaction settle

Major reports can cause gold to move sharply and then reverse as traders read the details. Before the release, mark nearby support, resistance and the recent trading range so you have reference points for assessing the reaction.

Afterward, watch whether gold holds beyond an important level or returns to the range. Waiting for a candle to close or for price to revisit a broken level can provide more information before entering. If the move has already travelled too far, avoid chasing it when the remaining potential profit is small compared with the risk.

Build your understanding with practice Following interest rate expectations can help you understand gold’s price moves and approach trading with a clearer plan. The key is to watch how new information changes the market’s outlook, then compare that change with gold’s reaction.

Keep a simple record of important news, rate expectations and price movements. Over time, reviewing these examples can help you recognise patterns and improve your judgement.

You do not need to predict every Fed decision. Start by understanding one market reaction at a time, while keeping your risk manageable

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Gold Moves Higher As Dollar Retreats

Gold 061026 Daily Chart Gold gains ground as traders focus on U.S. dollar’s pullback and react to falling Treasury yields.

U.S. dollar is losing ground against a broad basket of currencies as traders take some profits off the table near yearly highs. Dollar’s weakness is bullish for dollar-denominated commodities, including gold.

Treasury yields moved lower as some traders were ready to buy the dip. The yield of 2-year Treasuries pulled back towards the 4.80% level, while the yield of 10-year Treasuries settled near 5.27%.

FedWatch Tool indicates that the probability of a rate hike at the next meeting in October is 19.4%. Traders continue to expect that Fed will raise rates at the meeting in December due to high oil prices. Worries about duration of the rate hike cycle serve as a negative catalyst for gold markets.

Oil prices rebounded from session lows, but this move did not put material pressure on the price of gold. Brent oil managed to climb back above the $100.00 level, indicating that oil traders remained focused on escalation risks in the Middle East.

Currently, gold attempts to settle back above the support at $4160 – $4180. If gold manages to settle above the $4160 level, it will head towards the next resistance level at $4300 – $4320. On the support side, a move below the $4100 level will open the way to the test of the next support at $4000 – $4020.

Silver Attempts To Settle Above $62.00

Silver 061026 Daily Chart Silver remains stuck in a tight range as gold/silver ratio is mostly unchanged. it looks that traders are waiting for stronger catalysts.

If silver settles above the $62.00 level, it will head towards the 50 MA at $64.16. A move above the 50 MA will push silver towards the resistance at $65.00 – $66.00. RSI is in the moderate territory, so there is plenty of room to gain additional momentum in case the right catalysts emerge.

On the support side, a move below the psychologically important $60.00 level will open the way to the test of the support at $56.00 – $57.00.

Gold Price Forecast

Every new Gold analysis as it publishes, today's technical signal and key levels, live price — on one page.

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Platinum Moves Lower As Traders Ignore Falling Treasury Yields

Platinum 061026 Daily Chart Platinum is losing ground despite weaker dollar and falling Treasury yields. Traders focus on the rebound in the oil markets, which is bearish for platinum. High oil prices put significant pressure on global economy and may reduce demand for platinum. Palladium markets are down by -0.1%, which is neutral for platinum.

The technical picture remains unchanged as platinum continues its attempts to settle below the support level at $1700 – $1720. Platinum has already made a number of attempts to settle below $1700, but these attempts yielded no results. If platinum stays below the $1700 level, it will head towards the support level at $1600 – $1620.

On the upside, platinum needs to climb above the $1720 to gain upside momentum in the near term. In this case, platinum will head towards the 50 MA at $1760. A move above the 50 MA will open the way to the test of the resistance level at $1780 – $1800.

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Gold remains stuck between a rock and a hard place, with the directional bias remains tilted to the downside. While dovish Federal Reserve repricing and lower oil prices in the last couple of days has provided some support, the metal is still undermined by the elevated yields and the risks that oil prices may rebound and create fresh volatility for financial markets. Meanwhile, the technical resistance is also there with the metal now stuck in a bearish trend. Uncertainty over US-Iran situation continue to create the highest source of pressure, while central bank buying means downside is also limited. For now, the path of least resistance and the near-term risks to our gold outlook remain slightly tilted to the downside.

Gold rebounds – for now
Gold briefly slipped below last week’s low of $4,111 before recovering as oil prices and Treasury yields retreated. The pullback in yields has been particularly helpful, after a period of rising borrowing costs and a stronger US dollar put considerable pressure on the precious metal. However, nothing significant has changed fundamentally to support sustained pressure yields or the dollar.

Granted, we have seen some weaker US macro data of late, while comments from Fed officials John Williams and Philip Jefferson, who have pushed back against expectations of an October rate hike, have also helped gold. Friday’s weaker-than-expected US jobs report saw the probability of an October increase fall to just 20%. The resulting dovish repricing has helped limit gold’s downside.

Next week’s US CPI report is the next big data release. A softer inflation reading would probably reinforce the recent dovish Fed repricing and give gold another leg higher. But a hotter number, particularly if Middle East tensions remain unresolved, could push yields higher and expose gold to another round of selling.

Central banks continued to purchase gold in August
Central bank demand remains a structural positive for gold. According to the World Gold Council, global central banks reported net purchases of 39 tonnes in August, taking reported year-to-date buying to around 170 tonnes. China was the largest buyer during the month, followed by Uzbekistan and Poland. Continued official-sector accumulation provides an important floor for gold, even if it does little to resolve the short-term bearish picture.

Technical Gold outlook and levels to watch
Today’s false breakdown below last week’s low of $4,111 is technically a positive sign, but only if it leads to a sharp squeeze higher. So far, the gains have been modest at best, so the picture remains less convincing – and the bearish trend could resume.

Source: TradingView.com
Indeed, the larger trend is still bearish. Gold has been trending lower since its January peak, although the psychologically important $4,000 level managed hold during the summer months. This remains the key long-term line in the sand. A decisive break below it would significantly weaken the broader bullish structure.

In fact, as can be seen on the weekly chart, gold is currently testing a major support zone between $4,000 and $4,120. The market has bounced from this area, which is encouraging for the bulls, but it needs to build on that recovery.

Source: TradingView.com
If the above support breaks on the weekly time frame, then it could a cold autumn for gold bulls.

Meanwhile, the daily chart is more concerning. Spot gold remains below both its 21-day exponential moving average and 200-day simple moving average, while the sequence of lower highs and lower lows remains intact. The recent bounce could therefore still prove to be nothing more than short covering.

For the technical picture to turn convincingly bullish, and for us to drop out near-term bearish gold outlook, the metal needs to break the near-term bearish trend and reclaim the $4,235–$4,282 resistance zone at the very least. Until that happens, the sellers retain the advantage.

A decisive break below $4,106 would instead expose the $4,000 area, followed by the June low around $3,942.

For now, consolidation is the name of the game. Gold has fundamental support from persistent central-bank demand, but the technical trend has yet to turn. The next major move is likely to be dictated by the combination of US-Iran developments, oil prices, bond yields and next week’s CPI report.

Ultimately, this is a market that, over the longer term, I do like because of all of the debt and financing concerns in various countries around the world, France being the one in the headlines at the moment. It does make a certain amount of sense that people do like the idea of owning gold, as there is so much uncertainty out there at the moment.

Rallies at this point in time, though, will probably face some headwinds, not only from the bond market and the concerns of energy, but also from the moving averages that are now crossing, with the 50-day EMA and the 200-day EMA indicators looking like a potential resistance barrier.

Nonetheless, we are in an area of confluence, and typically that means we’ll have to make a longer-term decision fairly soon. With a little patience, the market should finally tell us where it is going soon.

Gold Price Forecast

Every new Gold analysis as it publishes, today's technical signal and key levels, live price — on one page.

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Gold: Fed Pause Hopes Collide With a Renewed Bond-Market Selloff The big picture backdrop for gold is split. U.S. September employment data showed just 29,000 nonfarm payroll jobs created, and other months’ data was revised down. The data has significantly lowered expectations of another FOMC rate increase in October. Currently, the markets expect just a 23% chance of a rate hike in October, while November and December rate hikes remain priced in at a slightly higher level.

The relief is being offset by selling in the bond market. 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields are at 24-year highs. Along with persistent inflation, heavier government borrowing is putting upward pressure on yields. Add to that rising U.S. fiscal deficits and a stronger dollar, and you have even more inflation headwinds. The U.S. services sector, like the U.S. manufacturing sector, also shows strong demand, and elevated input costs. Long-lasting elevated costs and strong demand point to inflation remaining high and sticky for an extended period.

Despite the commodity rout, gold’s structural demand remains firm. Speakers at this week’s London Bullion Market Association conference reflected on gold’s role as a reserve diversifier due to geopolitical fragmentation and rising sovereign debt. As such, forecasts for central bank purchases remain firm at around 720 tonnes by 2026.

Silver: High Investment Demand More Than Offsets Softer Solar Consumption Similar to gold, the USD and interest rate dynamics impact silver. The Silver Institute expects a sixth consecutive annual silver market deficit for 2026, even with a projected 1.5% increase in global silver supply. Physical investment for silver is expected to increase 20% to about 227 million ounces in 2026.

While consumption by solar manufacturers is expected to decline, there are several other industry sectors that are expected to increase silver consumption for 2026, including AI infrastructure and data centers, the automotive industry and electrical grid construction. In addition, the latest U.S. power sector data for 2022 reflect continued growth in the U.S. solar industry. In addition, data center electricity consumption is increasing as well.

Gold Technical Analysis: XAU/USD Tests $4,112 Support as $4,160 Caps the Recovery

Gold – Chart Gold is trading near $4,133 on the 4-hour chart. Currently price remains pinned close to the $4,112 support area after a failed recovery above $4,160. The broader structure is bearish as the price of gold is still under both of the moving averages and the descending trendline. The recent bounces in gold are also still producing lower highs.

The first area of support that I am watching is $4,112. A breakdown through $4,112 would bring about $4,073 and $4,030 in to play. Looking to the upside, $4,160 and $4,190 offer some resistance. Further resistance comes in at $4,214 and $4,238.

Gold Price Forecast

Every new Gold analysis as it publishes, today's technical signal and key levels, live price — on one page.

See all Gold forecastsRSI is in the lower half of its range which shows that momentum is still weak but not deeply oversold. Looking at the above, I am still inclined to look for lower prices, especially if $4,160 and $4,190 continue to provide resistance and the descending trendline continues to slop down. $4,214 would have to be taken out to give reason to change view to the upside, and a break below $4,112 would confirm lower prices toward $4,073.

Silver Technical Analysis: XAG/USD Holds $59.96 as $61.72 Remains the Key Breakout Level

Silver – Chart Silver (XAG/USD) is currently traded at $60.73. Last week, price tried consolidating above the $59.96 support area. Overall, the structure of the price action is still leaning towards the sellers in the 4-hour time frame, despite the recent sideways price move.

As long as Silver remains below the descending trendline and both moving averages, as well as $61.72, expect selling opportunities.

With the 4-hour time frame, the nearest resistance is at $61.72. The next supports below the 4-hour trend line is at $59.96, $58.94 and $57.64 respectively.

The RSI is at 50 indicating a neutral consolidation, neither favoring buyers nor sellers.

I will maintain my bearish bias while Silver is below the $61.72 and the trendline. A break above $63.06 will shift my focus to $65.09 and a break below $59.96 will validate a shift to the next support at $58.94.

Gold remains under pressure as bearish momentum builds and futures traders trim long exposure. With prices now within striking distance of 4,000, bears may remain in control near term, although the major psychological level could prove difficult to break and provide the foundation for a rebound.

View related analysis:

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Gold Bears Eye 4,000 as Futures Sentiment Weakens
Gold Futures (GC) Positioning | COT Report
While traders remain net-long on the CME gold futures market, their confidence is waning. Both large speculators and managed funds have trimmed their longs over the past five weeks, though not by an aggressive amount. However, managed funds increased their gross shorts last week, while large specs have done so for the past two. Again, only by marginal amounts, but it shows a shift in sentiment towards the gold market.

Options traders have also increased their bearish view slightly, with risk reversals moving increasingly below zero to show demand for puts outnumbering demand for calls. These are not grisly levels of bearishness, and that may be because 4,000 is a big level to break. And one I suspect will hold initially and prompt a countertrend bounce over the near term.

Source: CFTC (COT), COMEX, LSEG

Gold Futures (GC) Technical Analysis
A closer look at the weekly chart shows bearish momentum increased last week, with gold now trading less than a typical week’s range from 4,000. That puts the level within striking distance, although such a big round number could prove difficult to break cleanly and potentially trigger a volatile shakeout before a countertrend bounce.

The US dollar probably needs to stop accelerating before we can assume a meaningful low for gold. While DXY momentum still points higher, it formed a shooting star below 102 to hint at early signs of fatigue. So perhaps gold’s latest leg lower is nearing its end.

The daily chart remains bearish overall after Thursday’s outside day, although prices are holding above last week’s low. The 4,200 area could be reclaimed over the near term, but bears may look to fade rallies towards the monthly pivot near 4,300 and the 200-day EMA at 4,331.8. On the downside, note the high-volume node (HVN) at 4,082 and the 4,100 handle as potential support ahead of 4,000.

Ultimately, my bias is for bears to fade rallies towards 4,000, where gold seems more likely to find support and stage a decent rebound. That would also allow time for the US dollar to form a near-term top and provide gold with some breathing room.

Source: COMEX, TradingView

Gold Talking Points:
The gold sell-off has continued as Treasury yields spiked, even with equities holding up fairly well on a relative basis.
While short-term price action retains a bearish tint, the bigger question is bullish defense of the $4k level which brings to the matter the prospect of central banks and large institutions shifting reserves into gold and from fiat currencies.
Last week started with a statement move in gold as prices broke down aggressively to set a fresh monthly low. With Core PCE on the calendar for Wednesday and NFP on Friday, the market was not without motive, although it was the continued surge in Treasury yields that played a larger role. And despite a seemingly open door for bulls to push a retracement up to the $4250 level, sellers continued to swat down rallies and, at this point, prices have been range-bound since the breakdown move at the start of last week.

Gold Four-Hour Price Chart
Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview

Gold Daily
From the daily chart we can get better view of that range and, as yet, a lack of motivation from buyers to kickstart a rally. But, also of interest is just how tight that move between bonds and gold has been. At the bottom of the below chart I have a correlation coefficient plotted between gold and 10-year yields, and while this waxes and wanes, of late, it’s been close to as inversely correlated as it will normally get. This shows how gold has been selling off as yields have been rising and it makes sense with the current macro backdrop. But this also helps to highlight how softness in yields or some element of pullback there could help gold to muster some strength.

Gold Daily Chart
Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview

--- written by James Stanley, Senior Market Analyst, Global Macro

, /PRNewswire/ -- Mayfair Gold Corp. ("Mayfair" or the "Company") (TSXV: MFG) (NYSE American: MINE) is pleased to announce the appointment of Daniel Janusauskas, P.Eng., as Vice President, Technical Services, effective November 1, 2026. Mr. Janusauskas will lead the Company's technical services function as it advances and de-risks the 100%-owned Fenn-Gib Gold Project ("Fenn-Gib" or the "Project") toward a construction decision.

Drew Anwyll, P.Eng., Chief Executive Officer of Mayfair Gold, stated: "I have worked closely with Daniel previously and know him to be an exceptional engineer with broad experience spanning mining operations, technical studies, and project development. His technical judgement, practical approach, and strength of character make him ideally suited to help lead Fenn-Gib through its next stage of development and toward becoming an operating gold mine. We are very happy to welcome him to Mayfair."

Daniel Janusauskas, P.Eng., is a mining engineer with more than 15 years of experience in technical services, mine planning, project development, and operations. Most recently, he served as Technical Services Manager at Generation Mining, where he helped advance the Marathon Copper-Palladium Project through feasibility updates, lender due diligence and independent engineer reviews, project financing, and the transition into construction.

Previously, Mr. Janusauskas held technical and leadership roles with Baffinland Iron Mines, Detour Gold, and BBA, with experience in operational ramp-up and optimization, life-of-mine planning, NI 43-101 studies, and project evaluation. He holds a Bachelor of Mining Engineering from McGill University and is a recipient of the CIM-Bedford Canadian Young Mining Leaders Award.

Mr. Janusauskas, P.Eng., incoming Vice President, Technical Services, added: "I am excited to join Mayfair Gold at an important stage in Fenn-Gib's development. Mayfair has assembled an experienced and agile team, and I look forward to bringing my project development and operational experience to help advance Fenn-Gib toward production and build Mayfair into an operating and growing gold company."

About Mayfair Gold

Mayfair Gold is a Canadian development-stage gold company focused on advancing the 100%-owned Fenn-Gib Project in the Timmins region of Northern Ontario. Fenn-Gib hosts a 4.3-million-ounce indicated mineral resource of gold (181.3Mt at an average grade of 0.74g/t) and the expected strategy outlined in the 2026 Pre-Feasibility Study (the "PFS")1 is to develop the Project under the provincial permitting process, targeting the higher-grade 1-million-ounce probable mineral reserve (25.1Mt at an average grade of 1.29g/t) sitting near-surface, highlighting the optionality and scalability provided by the deposit. The PFS also outlines the potential to develop Fenn-Gib into a new Canadian gold producer, with initial development capital of C$450 million, a base-case payback period of 2.7 years, and cumulative free cash flow2 of US$896 million over the first six years of production based on a US$3,100/oz gold price. The Company is advancing permitting activities, detailed engineering, and stakeholder engagement with the goal of starting construction in 2028 with initial production in 2030. The Company also remains focused on exploration around the broader land package with the goal of enhancing mineral resource scale and growth opportunities.

___________________________

1 Please refer to the technical report entitled "Fenn-Gib Gold Project NI 43-101 Technical Report and pre-Feasibility Study" dated effective December 19, 2025 available on SEDAR+ at www.sedarplus.ca for further details.

2 Free cash flow does not have a standardized meaning and may not be comparable to similar measures presented by other issuers, referred to as non-GAAP financial measures. As the Corporation is not in production, the Corporation does not have historical non-GAAP financial measures nor historical comparable measures under IFRS, and therefore the foregoing prospective non-GAAP financial measures may not be reconciled to the nearest comparable measures under IFRS.

Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking Information

This news release contains certain forward-looking information within the meaning of applicable Canadian securities legislation and forward-looking statements within the meaning of applicable United States securities legislation (collectively, "forward-looking information"). The use of the words "will" and "expected" and similar expressions is intended to identify forward-looking information. Forward-looking information in this news release includes, but is not limited to, the expected strategy to develop the project under the provincial permitting process, targeting the higher-grade 1-million-ounce mineral reserve, building and operating the Fenn-Gib Project, any anticipated permitting timelines, and all disclosure related to the PFS, including expected commencement of construction and production. Although Mayfair Gold believes that the expectations reflected in such forward-looking information is reasonable, readers are cautioned that actual results may vary from the forward-looking information. The Company has based the forward-looking information on the Company's current expectations and assumptions about future events. This information also involves known and unknown risks, uncertainties, and other factors that may cause actual results or events to differ materially from those anticipated in such forward-looking information, including the risks, uncertainties, and other factors identified in the annual information form and Form 40-F of the Company for the year ended December 31, 2025, available under the Company's profiles on SEDAR+ at www.sedarplus.ca and EDGAR at www.sec.gov, respectively. Furthermore, the forward-looking information contained in this news release is as at the date of this news release, and Mayfair does not undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any of this forward-looking information except as may be required by applicable securities laws. 

Neither the TSX Venture Exchange ("TSXV") nor its Regulation Services Provider (as that term is defined in the policies of the TSXV) accepts responsibility for the adequacy or accuracy of this news release.

SOURCE Mayfair Gold Corp.

Gold’s September retreat leaves XAU/USD roughly 21% below Crédit Agricole’s $5,000 December target as US Dollar assets compete for demand. Gold ended Friday below $4,200 even after weak US jobs data, leaving Crédit Agricole's bullish year-end forecast dependent on a substantial recovery.

The Gold price in US Dollars (XAU/USD) closed near $4,136 an ounce, down 1.13% on Friday, following September's 6.64% decline.

See full gold price in US dollars history here.

Crédit Agricole's 30 September projections put Gold at $5,000 in December 2026 and $5,500 in December 2027.

The first target requires approximately 21% upside from Friday's close.

The bank acknowledges the setback:

"Despite its recent underperformance, gold remains the pre-eminent safe-haven asset and currency debasement hedge."

Weak payrolls have not secured a recovery Friday's US employment report showed just 29,000 additional jobs in September and annual wage growth slowing to 3.0%.

That gives the Federal Reserve less reason to raise rates, potentially easing competition from interest-bearing assets.

Th price of Gold nevertheless finished the session lower.

Higher real yields increase the opportunity cost of holding bullion, which pays no income, a hurdle we examined in our earlier coverage of Crédit Agricole's $5,000 forecast.

Image: Chart for the gold price over the last three months Central-bank demand has limits in a crisis Crédit Agricole's demand analysis distinguishes official buying from private enthusiasm:

"Private investors (speculators and otherwise) not rushing to buy gold while central bank gold reserves have increased"

It links the longer-term price gains to supply that cannot readily expand:

"Growing central bank gold demand and inelastic gold supply resulted in exponential XAU price moves in recent years"

But its charts also track reserve declines in Turkey and India during the conflict, under the heading:

"Demand for USD in the wake of the Iran war forced central banks to sell gold reserves"

We believe reserve diversification supports the longer-term forecast, but cannot guarantee protection from immediate selling when US Dollars are needed.

With the $5,000 target due in December, the timing of that recovery is now the demanding part of Crédit Agricole's call.

Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.

Interest Rates Did Fall After the U.S. Jobs Numbers Came In Anemic That was the initial reaction, but whether or not it changes everything, we’ll have to wait and see. I do like gold long term, but right now, this is all about the rates market, which has been somewhat all over the place.

The idea that the Federal Reserve now has to think about being a little bit more dovish with its monetary policy helps, I guess. But let’s be honest, a big part of inflation is due to energy, which is something that they have no control over. This is a tough situaiton for them.

Slightly bullish, but expect a lot of noise, would be my summary of what I’m looking at. This is a market that has a lot of things to pay attention to at the same time currently.

Gold Technical Forecast: XAU/USD Weekly Trade Levels
Gold has declined in five of the past six weeks following the August peak with bearish momentum building.
XAU/USD is now approaching a major support confluence where the immediate downside bias becomes increasingly vulnerable to price inflection.
A weekly close below support would validate renewed downside continuation and expose the yearly low as the next major objective.
The yearly open now marks initial resistance, with a stronger recovery required to suggest that a more meaningful low is developing.
Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls report is the next major catalyst after softer inflation increased expectations for an October Fed hold.
Resistance 4319, 4451, 4493-4533 (key)- Support 4104 (key), 3943, 3800
Gold enters October under heavy pressure after the September range broke lower, extending the decline from the August high to more than 12%. The selloff has now carried XAU/USD toward a major support zone just as momentum and event risk converge into Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls report. With softer Core PCE shifting expectations toward a potential Fed hold this month, the next reaction will be important in determining whether gold can stabilize from current levels or whether the broader March decline resumes into the fourth quarter. Battle lines drawn on the XAU/USD weekly technical chart.

Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this gold setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.

Gold Price Chart – XAU/USD Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; XAU/USD on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In last month’s Gold Technical Forecast we noted that XAU/USD had turned from resistance and that our focus was on, “a breakout of the September opening range for guidance. From a trading standpoint, losses would need to be limited to 4175 IF gold is heading higher on this stretch with a breach above 4681 needed to fuel the next leg of the advance..” The September range broke lower three-weeks later with gold plunging more than 12.4% from the August high. Price has declined five-of-the-past-six weeks with XAU/USD now approaching the support ahead of tomorrow’s highly anticipated Non-Farm Payrolls report.

The 78.6% retracement of the June advance converges on the 2025 May trendline (red) at 4104 and a break / weekly close below this zone would be needed to mark resumption of the March downtrend. Subsequent support objectives rest at the yearly low at 3942 and 3800 which converges on the 2024 uptrend over the next few weeks.

Initial weekly resistance is now eyed back at the objective yearly open at 4319 and is backed by the 52-week moving average, currently near 4451. Note that the upper parallel of the yearly downtrend converges on this level into the start of the month. Ultimately, the bulls would need to clear the March low-week close (LWC) and the 2025 high close at 4493-4533 to suggest that a more significant low is in place and a larger trend reversal is underway.

   
       

Bottom line: Gold is approaching confluent support into the start of the month with major event risk on tap tomorrow- risk for possible inflection into this zone with the immediate short bias vulnerable while above. From a trading standpoint, the risk remains tilted to the downside while below 4319 with a break / weekly close below 4104 needed to fuel the next leg lower in price.

Event risk remains elevated for gold into the start of October with the highly anticipated U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report on tap tomorrow. Consensus estimates call for a gain of 90K jobs with the unemployment rate expected to hold steady at 4.1%. With Core PCE coming in softer than expected this week, attention now shifts to the employment data for the next cue on Fed policy. Markets currently price roughly a 70% probability of a hold this month, while the odds of at least one 25-basis-point hike by year-end stand near 80%. A stronger jobs report could revive expectations for an October hike and pressure gold through higher yields and a firmer dollar, while a softer print could reinforce expectations for a near-term hold and offer support for bullion. Stay nimble into the release and watch the weekly close for guidance. Review my latest Gold Short-term Outlook for a closer look at the near-term XAU/USD technical trade levels.

Key US Economic Data Releases

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist

Follow Michael on X @MBForex

VANCOUVER, Canada, Oct. 01, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Sonoro Gold Corp. (TSXV: SGO | OTCQB: SMOFF | FRA: 23SP) (“Sonoro” or the “Company”) is pleased to announce assay results from an additional 26 drill holes completed at the Company’s flagship Cerro Caliche gold project in Sonora, Mexico. The Company has now completed 72 drill holes over 14,086.35 meters as part of an ongoing 50,000-meter campaign.

Results reflect over 4,100 meters of drilling completed at the recently acquired Diana concession as well as at the newly-identified mineralized zone at La Colorada demonstrating the project’s potential to host multiple gold mineralized zones across the property.

Highlights:

SCR-378 6.10m @ 2.261 g/t Au, including:3.05m @ 4.296 g/t Au SCR-386 18.29m @ 1.239 g/t Au, including:3.05m @ 5.541 g/t Au SCR-387 28.95m @ 2.598 g/t Au, including:13.72m @ 5.101 g/t Au SCR-391 32.00m @ 1.846 g/t Au, including:4.57m @ 10.430 g/t Au SCR-396 47.24m @ 1.552 g/t Au, including:6.10m @ 5.623 g/t Au “The latest drilling results continue to demonstrate the significant potential for multiple gold mineralized zones at Cerro Caliche,” said Sonoro President & CEO Kenneth MacLeod. “Higher-grade intercepts, including higher-grade intervals within broader mineralized zones, from drilling completed at Diana validates our decision to expand the north extension of the project and supports our hypothesis that Cerro Caliche is likely part of a larger gold epithermal system, with district-scale potential. While we maintain our objective to develop an initial mining operation at Cerro Caliche, we also plan to continue investigating the recently acquired concessions where historical data indicates the potential for higher-grade gold mineralization.”

The map below illustrates the location of the drill holes.

Figure 1: Location Map of Drill Holes

Click here to view image

Diana Mineralized Area

A total of 14 reverse circulation (“RC”) drill holes were completed at the recently acquired Diana concession, located north of the project’s Rincón–Bellotoso mineralized zone. Multiple higher-grade intercepts confirmed the presence of shallow, higher-grade gold mineralization supporting the potential for Diana to be another significant mineralized zone. Assays from 10 of the 14 drill holes completed at Diana returned multiple intercepts over 1 gram of gold per tonne (“g/t Au”) over 1 meter (“m”).

Results from nine drill holes at Diana demonstrate gold mineralization extending southeast across the Bellotoso Plateau, which straddles the northern boundary of the project’s original property and the recently acquired northern concessions. Highlights include drill holes:

SCR-386 intercepted 8.29m @ 1.239 g/t Au, including 3.05m @ 5.541 g/t Au SCR-387 intercepted 28.95m @ 2.598 g/t Au, including 13.72m @ 5.101 g/t Au SCR-391 intercepted 32m @ 1.846 g/t Au, including 4.57m @ 10.430 g/t Au Other notable results were returned from drill holes:

SCR-389 intercepted 15.24m @ 0.555 g/t Au, including 1.52m @ 3.520 g/t Au SCR-390 intercepted 44.19m @ 0.480 g/t Au, including 4.57m @ 1.210 g/t Au SCR-392 intercepted 30.48m @ 0.471 g/t Au, including 1.53m @ 3.284 g/t Au Results from five drill holes completed to the west of Diana demonstrated gold mineralization which also extends northwest towards the historic workings of El Batamote mine.  Highlights include drill holes:

SCR-396 intersected 47.24m @ 1.552 g/t Au, including 6.10m @ 5.623 g/t Au SCR-398 intercepted 56.39m @ 0.410 g/t Au including 3.05m @ 2.102 g/t Au The map below illustrates the location of the drill holes completed at Diana.

Figure 2: Map of Drill Holes at Diana

Click here to view image

As previously disclosed, the Company acquired historical geological data from prior exploration completed at Diana and El Batamote, including rock and soil samples, drill logs and assay certificates. A detailed analysis of the historical data, together with extensive geological mapping and current drilling results, demonstrates the potential continuity of the project’s northwest-trending structural and rhyolite-hosted mineralized corridors into the recently acquired northern concessions.

Additional drilling is required to fully define the Diana mineralized zone as well as several mineralized structures identified across the northern extension.

La Colorada Mineralized Zone

A total of 12 RC drill holes were completed at La Colorada, a newly identified mineralized zone located in the central-western region of the property, approximately 300 meters to the west of where the Company proposes to develop an open-pit, heap leach mining operation as outlined in a Preliminary Economic Assessment (the “PEA”) filed April 24, 2026.

Drilling outlined a new northwest-trending mineralized zone characterized by rhyolitic dikes, structurally controlled breccias, multiple mineralized structures and numerous historical mine workings. The structural complexity of the area appears similar to nearby El Colorado zone, and drilling intercepted mineralized structures that are interpreted to be part of the same La Colorada structural system, including the previously identified Huevo de Oro splay.

Four drill holes at El Colorada returned intercepts over 1 g/t Au over 1 meter including SCR-378 which intercepted 6.10m @ 2.261 g/t Au, including 3.05m @ 4.296 g/t Au and SCR-384 which intercepted 4.57m @ 0.648 g/t Au, including 1.52m @ 1.404 g/t Au.

Drilling was also completed in the area between La Colorada and the footwall of the mineralized Guadalupe zone. This broad area is characterized by numerous small gold bearing quartz veins and prior surface mapping and sampling indicate additional mineralization potential.

Additional drilling is required to determine the continuity of mineralization as well as the interconnection of various mineralized structures.

The map below illustrates the location of the drill holes completed at La Colorada.

Figure 3: Map of Drill Holes at La Colorada

Click here to view image

Below are selected drill results containing interval grading of 1.0 g/t Au or greater.

Cerro Caliche Project, Holes Composites with Cut-off 0.13 g/t Au HoleTarget FromToIntervalAuAgMetersg/tg/tSCR-378LA COLORADA 70.1076.206.102.2610.200includes70.1073.153.054.2960.300SCR-380LA COLORADA 121.92123.441.521.0142.200SCR-381LA COLORADA 120.40121.921.521.6143.100SCR-384LA COLORADA 21.3422.861.521.4040.800SCR-386DIANA 15.2433.5318.291.2390.700includes24.3827.433.055.5410.900SCR-387DIANA 0.004.574.571.1861.800includes0.001.521.522.5412.400and25.9154.8628.952.5981.400includes35.0548.7713.725.1012.300SCR-389DIANA 3.0518.2915.240.5551.600includes6.107.621.523.5202.300SCR-390DIANA 6.1050.2944.190.4802.000includes7.629.141.521.86915.300includes36.5842.674.571.2101.400SCR-391DIANA 10.6742.6732.001.8463.500includes18.2922.864.5710.43012.200includes27.4328.961.531.3322.600includes41.1542.671.521.9190.900SCR-392DIANA 0.0030.4830.480.4710.800includes1.523.051.533.2842.200SCR-393DIANA 0.0036.5836.580.3870.600includes32.0033.531.533.2820.800SCR-394DIANA 7.6239.6232.000.3800.600includes15.2416.761.521.8770.150SCR-396DIANA 53.34100.5847.241.5523.600includes54.8657.913.057.43313.400includes70.1071.631.531.8650.600includes77.7283.826.105.62311.000includes92.9694.491.532.7122.900SCR-398DIANA 0.0056.3956.390.4100.500includes19.8122.863.052.1020.900includes36.5838.101.521.1441.200          The reported gold and silver grades are analytical results taken directly from assay certificates issued by Bureau Veritas and are reported uncut. The drill results presented herein are exploration results and do not constitute an updated mineral resource estimate. The results will be incorporated into the geological model and evaluated as part of a future mineral resource estimate update prepared in accordance with NI 43-101.

Mineralized intervals were composited using a nominal reporting cut-off grade of 0.13 g/t Au. This reporting criterion is used solely to present the continuity of the intercepted mineralization and does not represent a new mineral resource estimate or an assessment of economic viability.

True widths are estimated to represent approximately 60% to 90% of the reported drilled interval lengths. Drill holes were completed at inclinations of –45° and were oriented to intersect the mineralized structures as close to perpendicular as practicable. The mineralized structures generally have steep dips approaching vertical.

Drill collar locations, azimuths and dips for the drill holes included are provided in the table below.

Drill Collar Locations (NAD 1927 UTM Zone 12N)Hole IDZoneEastNorthElevationDepthAzDipSCR-374La Colorada535,5673,365,1671,321121.92255-45SCR-375La Colorada535,4933,365,2901,338103.63288-45SCR-376La Colorada535,5033,365,2841,338109.73235-45SCR-377La Colorada535,6053,365,3081,351207.26125-45SCR-378La Colorada535,5113,365,4231,260134.11265-45SCR-379La Colorada535,6023,365,4381,269158.50275-45SCR-380La Colorada535,6053,365,3111,351249.94285-45SCR-381La Colorada535,4463,365,3531,305164.59285-45SCR-382La Colorada535,4173,365,4981,253164.59160-45SCR-383La Colorada535,5363,365,2411,365201.17305-45SCR-384La Colorada535,6313,364,9361,223152.40255-45SCR-385La Colorada535,7303,364,9701,245121.92235-45SCR-386Diana537,1353,367,9301,48076.2050-45SCR-387Diana537,1663,367,9091,48882.3050-45SCR-388Diana537,1763,367,9961,49679.2550-45SCR-389Diana537,2053,367,9961,49810.6750-45SCR-389aDiana537,2003,367,9921,49888.3950-45SCR-390Diana537,1763,367,9941,49679.25230-45SCR-391Diana537,2593,367,9711,49185.34230-45SCR-392Diana537,1863,367,9351,49076.2050-45SCR-393Diana537,2323,367,8591,466249.9450-45SCR-394Diana536,6973,368,0371,415176.78230-45SCR-395Diana536,9793,367,9581,445249.94230-45SCR-396Diana536,7923,368,1691,434365.76230-45SCR-397Diana536,6323,368,0241,411368.81230-45SCR-398Diana536,7703,367,9691,435262.13230-45 Quality Assurance/Quality Control (QA/QC) Measures and Analytical Procedures

Drill samples are collected through an airstream cyclone and passed through a sample splitter three consecutive times to improve sample homogeneity. A representative split comprising approximately 40% of each sample is then placed in a bag, identified, sealed, and sent to the laboratory. As part of the quality assurance and quality control (QA/QC) program, blanks, certified reference materials (standards), and duplicate samples are systematically inserted into the sample stream.

Personnel from either Sonoro Gold Corp. or Bureau Veritas (BV) collect the samples directly from the drill site and transport them to BV’s sample preparation laboratory in Hermosillo, Sonora. At the laboratory, the entire sample received is crushed, and an approximate 250-gram split is obtained and pulverized.

Approximately 90 grams of each pulverized sample are separated and sent to BV’s laboratories in Hermosillo, Sonora, or Reno, Nevada. A 30-gram aliquot of this material is analyzed for gold using fire assay with an atomic absorption finish. Additionally, an approximate 10-gram aliquot of each pulverized sample is sent to BV’s laboratory in Vancouver, Canada, where it undergoes aqua regia digestion followed by multi-element ICP analysis, including silver.

A review of the inserted control-sample results identified no significant QA/QC issues with the analytical results received from the laboratories involved.

Qualified Person Statement
Stephen Kenwood, P.Geo., an Independent Director of Sonoro, is a Qualified Person within the context of National Instrument 43-101 (NI 43-101) and has read and approved this news release.

About Sonoro Gold Corp.
Sonoro Gold Corp. is a publicly listed exploration and development Company holding the near-development-stage Cerro Caliche project and the exploration-stage San Marcial project in Sonora State, Mexico. The Company has highly experienced operational and management teams with proven track records for the discovery and development of natural resource deposits.

To keep up-to-date on Sonoro’s developments, please join our online communities on X, Facebook, LinkedIn, Instagram, and YouTube and visit Sonoro’s website and subscribe to receive the latest news and updates delivered straight to your inbox.

On behalf of the Board of Sonoro Gold Corp.
Per:  Kenneth MacLeod”
          Kenneth MacLeod
          President & CEO

For further information, please contact: 
Sonoro Gold Corp. - Tel: (604) 632-1764
Email: [email protected]

Forward-Looking Statement Cautions:
This press release may contain "forward-looking information" as defined in applicable Canadian securities legislation. All statements other than statements of historical fact, included in this release, including, without limitation, statements regarding the Cerro Caliche project, and future plans and objectives of the Company, constitute forward looking information that involve various risks and uncertainties, including statements regarding completion of an updated preliminary economic assessment of the Cerro Caliche Gold project.. Although the Company believes that such statements are reasonable based on current circumstances, it can give no assurance that such expectations will prove to be correct. Forward-looking statements are statements that are not historical facts; they are generally, but not always, identified by the words "expects", "plans", "anticipates", "believes", "intends", "estimates", "projects", "aims", "potential", "goal", "objective", "prospective" and similar expressions, or that events or conditions "will", "would", "may", "can”, "could" or "should" occur, or are those statements, which, by their nature, refer to future events.  The Company cautions that forward-looking statements are based on the beliefs, estimates and opinions of the Company's management on the date the statements are made and they involve a number of risks and uncertainties, including the possibility of unfavorable exploration and test results, the lack of sufficient future financing to carry out exploration and development plans and unanticipated changes in the legal, regulatory and permitting requirements for the Company’s exploration programs.  There can be no assurance that such statements will prove to be accurate, as actual results and future events could differ materially from those anticipated in such statements. Accordingly, readers should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. The Company disclaims any intention or obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by law or the policies of the TSX Venture Exchange. Readers are encouraged to review the Company’s complete public disclosure record on SEDAR at www.sedar.com.

This press release does not constitute or form a part of any offer or solicitation to purchase or subscribe for securities in the United States. The securities referred to herein have not been and will not be registered under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), or with any securities regulatory authority of any state or other jurisdiction in the United States, and may not be offered or sold, directly or indirectly, within the United States or to, or for the account or benefit of, U.S. persons, as such term is defined in Regulation S under the Securities Act (“Regulation S”), except pursuant to an exemption from or in a transaction not subject to the registration requirements of the Securities Act”

Neither the TSX Venture Exchange nor its Regulation Services Provider (as that term is defined in the policies of the TSX Venture Exchange) accept responsibility for the adequacy or accuracy of this release.

TL;DR: Gold’s rebound from 4,110.50 nearly tested the 4,113.82 Fibonacci projection to the tick, preserving the corrective interpretation of the decline from 4,697.07, but the 10-year Treasury yield stayed pinned near 5.30% despite softer PCE inflation—leaving 4,234.68 and 4,334.57 as the two resistance levels bulls still need to clear.

Why This Matters Gold held the level that mattered, but the bond market refused to provide confirmation. A near-exact test of a key Fibonacci projection is technically significant, but it only tells half the story when the macro backdrop that should accompany a genuine reversal—falling long-term yields—hasn’t shown up yet. That gap between a clean technical bounce and an incomplete macro confirmation is the central tension shaping Gold’s next move, and it’s why “support held” and “bulls are back in control” remain two different claims.

Softer PCE Delays the Fed Debate, but Does Not End It August PCE inflation came in softer than expected, with core PCE rising 0.2% m/m against 0.3% forecast and headline PCE increasing 0.3% against 0.4% expected. That pushed expectations for another Fed hike away from October and further toward December. The annual readings also came in below pre-release forecasts, although benchmark revisions contributed to the size of those misses.

The release reinforced New York Fed President John Williams’ message at the University at Buffalo on September 29 that, following September’s hike, there was “no need for urgency” and time remained to gather more information. Williams nevertheless said another increase could still be appropriate later this year if the economy develops broadly as expected.

But the broader Fed message was not uniformly dovish. Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook said at a Richmond Fed conference in Asheville, North Carolina, on September 30 that inflation had been “too high for too long.” Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, speaking the same day at a Council on Foreign Relations event in New York, said softer PCE had not materially changed his view that inflation remained too high.

The result is a Fed debate increasingly centered on timing rather than whether inflation has been defeated.

The Bond Market Is the Missing Confirmation For Gold, the more important signal came from Treasuries. Despite the softer inflation numbers and reduced conviction in an October hike, the 10-year Treasury yield remained around the 5.30% area. That disconnect matters. Softer inflation normally eases the rates channel facing non-yielding Gold, but this time the long end did not follow the front-end repricing lower.

The implication is that markets are distinguishing between a less urgent Fed and genuinely easier long-term financial conditions. Strong consumer demand is one reason the PCE report was not cleanly dovish: personal spending surged 0.9% m/m and real PCE rose 0.6%, even as real disposable income was flat. The inflation surprise weakened the case for an immediate hike, but the activity data did not point to a sharp slowdown.

That leaves Gold facing an uncomfortable combination: Fed timing has become less hawkish, but the yield backdrop remains restrictive. This helps explain why the rebound from 4,110.50 has so far been restrained rather than explosive.

ActionForex’s Technical View on Gold 4,113 Support Passed an Important Test Technically, Gold did what bulls needed at the first major downside objective. The decline from 4,697.07 tested the 61.8% projection of the 4,697.07 to 4,234.68 decline, measured from 4,399.58. That projection sits at 4,113.82. The actual low was 4,110.50.

That near-exact test is significant because it preserves the preferred interpretation that the decline from 4,697.07 can still be treated as a corrective leg within a larger structure, rather than confirmation that a fresh impulsive selloff is already underway. Momentum is also stabilizing: on the four-hour chart, RSI has recovered from deeply oversold conditions toward neutral territory around 48, while MACD has turned higher from a deeply negative reading, though it remains below zero. That combination is consistent with bottoming pressure, but not yet with a confirmed bullish reversal.

First Hurdle: 4,235 Must Break The first test is the 4,234.68 resistance area. This was previously support and now acts as resistance. It is reinforced by the four-hour 55 EMA near 4,236.86, creating a tight technical cluster around 4,235. A firm break above this zone would be the first convincing evidence that 4,110.50 has formed a meaningful short-term bottom. Until then, the current recovery can still be treated as a relief bounce inside the decline from 4,697.07—a distinction that matters because Gold has already produced several rebounds during the broader fall without changing the underlying structure.

Second Hurdle: 4,335 Is the Bigger Reversal Test Even a break above 4,235 would not complete the bull case. The more important resistance lies at 4,334.57, the 38.2% retracement of the entire 4,697.07 to 4,110.50 decline. The daily 55 EMA around 4,313.94 sits just below it, creating a broader 4,314–4,335 resistance zone. A sustained break through that region would carry considerably more technical weight—it would argue that the whole decline from 4,697.07 may have completed and shift attention back toward higher resistance levels.

The hierarchy is therefore straightforward:

Above 4,235, short-term bottoming becomes credible. Above 4,335, the case that the full corrective decline has ended becomes substantially stronger. Gold has achieved neither yet.

A Break of 4,110 Would Reopen 3,937–3,942 The downside structure is equally clear. A renewed break below 4,110.50 would invalidate the immediate stabilization case and expose the 100% projection at 3,937.19. That level sits almost directly alongside the previous 3,942.43 low, creating a strong technical support cluster around 3,937–3,942. A move into that region would do more than simply extend the current pullback—it would raise the probability that the broader decline from the 5,598.75 high is still extending, rather than that the move from 4,697.07 represents a self-contained correction. That makes 4,110.50 an important dividing line for the current setup.

ISM and NFP Will Test Whether Yields Finally Follow the Data The next catalysts sit directly on the fault line between the two technical paths. A firm ISM reading, followed by a stronger-than-expected NFP report, would reinforce the resilience side of the US story. If that pushes Treasury yields higher again and revives October or broader Fed-tightening expectations, Gold’s rebound could struggle below 4,235 and turn back toward 4,110.50.

Conversely, softer activity or labor data would matter most if the 10-year yield finally rolls over. That would provide the macro confirmation missing from Wednesday’s PCE reaction and give Gold a more credible route through 4,234.68, with 4,334.57 then becoming the larger reversal test. For Gold, therefore, the next signal may come less from whether ISM or NFP beat or miss in isolation than from how Treasury yields react to those numbers.

Support Held, but Bulls Still Need Confirmation Gold has passed one meaningful technical test. The 4,113 projection held almost to the tick, momentum has begun to stabilize and the preferred corrective interpretation remains intact. But “support held” and “bulls are back in control” remain two different claims. The first threshold is 4,235. The second is 4,335. Until those levels give way, the rebound from 4,110.50 remains a recovery inside a structure that has not yet turned decisively bullish. And with long-term Treasury yields still elevated despite softer PCE, the macro confirmation for that reversal is still missing.

Key Takeaways Gold’s low at 4,110.50 nearly matched the 4,113.82 Fibonacci projection, preserving the view that the decline from 4,697.07 is corrective rather than a fresh impulsive selloff. Despite softer August PCE, the 10-year Treasury yield held near 5.30%, denying Gold the macro confirmation that typically accompanies a genuine reversal. The Fed debate has shifted to timing rather than direction, with Williams striking a patient tone while Cook and Kashkari pushed back against declaring inflation defeated. Bulls need a break above 4,234.68 for short-term bottoming to become credible, and above 4,334.57 for the full corrective decline to be considered over. A break below 4,110.50 would expose the 3,937–3,942 support cluster and raise the risk that the broader decline from 5,598.75 is still extending.

ActionForex

ActionForex.com was set up back in 2004 with the aim to provide insightful analysis to forex traders, serving the trading community for two decades. We started providing only a daily and a mid-day report, now known as Action Insights. Gradually, we added a lot more in-house contents to the site. Technical Outlook section was expanded to cover more pairs. In addition to that, Top Movers, Heat Map, Pivot Point Charts and Pivot Meters, Action Bias and Volatility Charts, are tools used by traders from all over the world.

Gold’s 4.01% slump ranked 88th-largest since 1968
US 10-year real yields hit highest since 2008
Four-hourly gold indicators now show extreme oversold conditions
$4,115 support in focus
Precious metals washout ranks among the largest on record
It was a brutal start to the week for gold and the broader precious metals complex, with massive losses seen that ranked right up there among the largest in history.

Gold slumped more than 4%, silver more than 5%, while platinum and palladium fell nearly 3.5% and 5% respectively. For gold, it was the 88th-largest daily decline in a dataset going back to 1968, with the moves in the other metals not far behind.

Source: LSEG

US real yields surge to levels not seen since 2008
As discussed in a separate analysis note released in early Asia on Monday, the current macro environment is extremely hostile for metals that offer no yield, have holding costs if held in physical form, and are predominantly priced in US dollars.

That point is reinforced by what’s happening in US real yields. While there’s currently no especially strong short-term correlation between real yields and gold, stepping back from the day-to-day relationship gives a pretty stark picture.

Source: LSEG

US 10-year real yields, which represent the yield investors can receive over and above the market’s expected average inflation rate over the coming decade, have surged to 2.85%. That’s the highest level since November 2008 and the 22nd-highest daily close in data going back to 2003. The speed of the move has also been extreme, with real yields rising 51 basis points over the past 20 sessions after already starting from historically elevated levels.

Macro remains hostile, but gold is stretched to extremes
Even allowing for the fact that signals from TIPS can be muddied somewhat by the legacy effects of the Fed’s previous quantitative easing programs, it’s difficult to look at that kind of risk-free real return and make anything other than a bearish fundamental case for precious metals, and arguably broader risk assets.

For gold specifically, the question is obvious. When investors can receive nearly 3% in real terms from the US government, how does what has long been perceived to be a safe-haven that offers no yield and is predominantly priced in dollars compete?

When you evaluate the answer, it’s not hard to see why gold is struggling in this environment.

Six prior episodes offer a clue on what may come next
Gold is getting hammered, and arguably for valid, solid fundamental reasons. But macro is one thing, and being extremely oversold is another.

While there’s no evidence of a looming release valve to alleviate the pressure on the precious metals complex, history suggests the prospect of a savage counter-trend rally is not out of the realms of possibility.

Gold on the four-hourly chart has now got an extreme RSI (14) reading, while the ATR 50 stretch indicator is also extreme. The price was also trading beneath the lower Bollinger Band into the latest close.

Looking visually at the chart, I couldn’t help but notice that when we’ve seen similar conditions in the past, we’ve often seen some pretty big bounces.

So rather than just eyeballing it, I decided to go through the data and back-test what actually happened following previous periods when gold had reached similarly oversold conditions.

Source: TradingView

For the back-test, I kept the criteria simple and fixed. I looked for previous four-hourly periods where RSI (14) was below 30, the ATR 50 stretch indicator was below -4, and gold was trading beneath the lower Bollinger Band.

Using those conditions, there were six previous independent episodes in the available history. Of those, gold was higher 24 hours later in four of the six episodes, with the same also seen after 48 hours. By 72 hours and 120 hours, however, it was higher in five of the six.

The obvious exception was March this year, when the liquidation simply kept going and gold continued to unwind. While each large-scale selloff has its own characteristics, that episode was unusual in and of itself, coming after gold had experienced arguably one of the more extreme speculative rallies seen in modern times, taking it to a record high of $5,500 an ounce before the air was let out of the move.

So while that provides a cautionary tale that historic tendencies do not always play out, when you look more broadly, the scope for a near-term bounce against the prevailing trend may be in play.

$4,115 becomes the immediate line in the sand

Source: TradingView

Such was the ferocity of Monday’s breakdown that not only the first but also the second of the two downside targets discussed yesterday were hit, leaving the price dangling just above support at $4,115 an ounce.

That now becomes the immediate focal point for anyone trading gold. Should the prevailing trend extend further, $4,070 an ounce is the next downside level of note, coinciding with an area that acted as both resistance and support in late July and early August this year. Beneath that, a more pronounced support zone kicks in below $4,000, with $3,996, the swing low set in late July, marking the top of the range down to $3,943, the low hit earlier this year.

However, should we see a countertrend bounce form from $4,115, there is scope for the move to push back towards $4,165, the swing high set in late July this year, with $4,220 the next level of note.

A rebound back to that level would likely require some form of major macro news that erodes at least some of the pressure that has been hitting precious metals through higher yields and a strengthening dollar.

3,700 METRE PROGRAM TO TEST FOR HIGH-GRADE EPITHERMAL VEIN POTENTIAL 

, /PRNewswire/ -- A2Gold Corp. ("A2Gold" or the "Company") (TSX-V: AUAU) (OTCQX: AUXXF) (FRA: RR7) is pleased to announce that reverse-circulation ("RC") drilling has commenced at Target Pente at the Company's flagship Eastside Gold-Silver Project ("Eastside" or the "Project") near Tonopah, Nevada.

Following finalization of drill targeting and hole design, the current program is expected to consist of approximately 8 RC drill holes totaling 3,700 metres.

Figure 1: Plan view map that shows the 2026 RC drill program for Target Pente. The program is designed to test the potential for high-grade epithermal veins, consistent with A2Gold's strategy of targeting high-grade mineralization within the broader Eastside district rather than simply expanding the known bulk-tonnage gold-silver mineralization.

Target Pente Drill Program
Target Pente is one of several high-priority exploration targets identified across the Company's extensive Eastside land package and represents the next phase of A2Gold's 2026 exploration program at Eastside.

Previous drilling at Target Pente intersected shallow, low-grade gold mineralization associated with rhyolite flow dome margins and faults (Figure 1). Recent geological mapping has identified several outcropping, silicified fault zones with potential to host high-grade gold-silver mineralization at depths below those tested by the previous vertical RC drill program.

The planned 8-hole RC drill program will test a series of priority structural targets interpreted to have the potential to host high-grade gold-silver mineralization associated with epithermal veins.

A2Gold's exploration strategy at Eastside is increasingly focused on identifying and testing the high-grade components of the broader epithermal system. The Company believes Eastside's large land package, extensive alteration footprint and multiple known centers of mineralization provide significant opportunities for additional discoveries.

Peter Gianulis, CEO, commented:
"With drilling now underway at Pente, we are moving directly into the next phase of our exploration strategy at Eastside. Our focus is increasingly on testing the potential for high-grade veins within this very large epithermal system, rather than simply expanding upon the known bulk-tonnage gold-silver mineralization.

Pente provides us with an opportunity to test a series of priority structural targets that we believe have the potential to host high-grade gold-silver mineralization. Together with our ongoing work at Castle and McIntosh, we are systematically evaluating the broader Eastside district with an increasing emphasis on identifying the high-grade components of this large mineralized system."

Qualified Person
John Marma, CPG, a Certified Professional Geologist with the American Institute of Professional Geologists and a Qualified Person as defined by National Instrument 43-101, has reviewed and approved the scientific and technical information contained in this news release.

About A2Gold Corp 

A2Gold Corp. has built a multi-asset gold-silver exploration platform in Nevada, one of the world's premier mining jurisdictions. The Company controls approximately 230 km² of prospective mineral tenure across its Eastside and Taylor projects, both district-scale assets with large precious metals resources with significant exploration and resource growth potential. 

Eastside hosts an inferred mineral resource of 1.4 million ounces of gold and 8.8 million ounces of silver*, while Taylor adds a highly prospective exploration district with gold, silver, antimony and porphyry-skarn upside. Backed by a fully funded exploration program and a strong pipeline of catalysts, A2Gold is focused on unlocking value through resource expansion, new discoveries and systematic district-scale exploration. 

A2Gold is also supported by a strong shareholder base, including Kinross Gold Corporation, which owns approximately 9.9% of the Company's issued and outstanding shares.

* Updated Resource Estimate and NI 43-101 Technical Report, Eastside and Castle Gold-Silver Project Technical Report, Esmeralda County, Nevada, prepared by Mine Development Associates of Reno, Nevada, with an effective date of July 30, 2021. Pit-constrained Inferred Resources, using a cut-off grade of 0.15 g/t Au, total 61,730,000 tonnes grading 0.55 g/t Au and 4.4 g/t Ag at the Original Pit Zone, representing 1,090,000 ounces of gold and 8,700,000 ounces of silver, and 19,986,000 tonnes grading 0.49 g/t Au at the Castle Area, representing 314,000 ounces of gold, using a gold price of US$1,725/ounce. Mineral resources are not mineral reserves and do not have demonstrated economic viability. Inferred mineral resources are considered too speculative geologically to have economic considerations applied to them that would enable them to be categorized as mineral reserves.

On Behalf of the Board
Peter Gianulis, CEO

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Certain statements and information contained in this press release constitute "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of applicable U.S. securities laws and "forward-looking information" within the meaning of applicable Canadian securities laws, which are referred to collectively as "forward-looking statements." The United States Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 provides a "safe harbor" for certain forward-looking statements.

Forward-looking statements in this news release include, but are not limited to, statements regarding A2Gold's exploration plans for the Taylor Project, the scope, timing and objectives of the drill program at Taylor, the potential expansion of the historical silver resource, the preparation of an updated NI 43-101 mineral resource estimate, the evaluation of gold mineralization, the testing of gold-antimony, CRD, skarn and porphyry targets, the potential contribution of gold and antimony mineralization to the broader Taylor system, the potential for Taylor to emerge as an important Nevada silver-gold project with critical mineral upside, and A2Gold's future exploration and development plans. Forward-looking statements are statements and information regarding possible events, conditions or results of operations that are based upon assumptions about future economic conditions and courses of action. All statements and information other than statements of historical fact may be forward-looking statements. In some cases, forward-looking statements can be identified by the use of words such as "seek," "expect," "anticipate," "budget," "plan," "estimate," "continue," "forecast," "intend," "believe," "predict," "potential," "target," "may," "could," "would," "might," "will" and similar words or phrases, including negative variations, suggesting future outcomes or statements regarding an outlook.

Such forward-looking statements are based on a number of material factors and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause actual results, performance or achievements, or industry results, to differ materially from those anticipated in such forward-looking information. You are cautioned not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements contained in this press release.

Some of the known risks and other factors which could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements are described in the sections entitled "Risk Factors" in A2Gold's Listing Application, dated January 24, 2018, as filed with the TSX Venture Exchange and available on SEDAR+ under A2Gold's profile. Actual results and future events could differ materially from those anticipated in such statements. A2Gold undertakes no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements included in this press release if these beliefs, estimates and opinions or other circumstances should change, except as otherwise required by applicable law.

SOURCE A2 Gold Corp

 | Source: ATG Capital Management LP

ISS Concludes That ATG Capital Has Made a Compelling Case for Change at Empery Digital

ISS Finds the Board's Rejection of ATG Capital's Nominees Was an “Unjustified Substitution of the Board's Judgment for That of Shareholders” and That the Board's Functioning Has Been “Less Than Robust”

ISS Recommends That Stockholders WITHHOLD Support From Incumbent Directors Ian Read and Orn Olason, and Vote AGAINST the Company's Equity Incentive Plan

ATG Capital Urges Stockholders to Vote to Elect All Four of its Independent, Qualified Nominees Today and to WITHHOLD on Incumbent Directors Lane, Chauhan, Olason & Read

MIAMI, Sept. 25, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- ATG Capital Management LP (“ATG Capital”), together with certain of its affiliates, is the beneficial owner of 4,500,000 shares, or more than 16%, of Empery Digital Inc. (Nasdaq: EMPD) (“Empery Digital” or the “Company”) and its largest non-affiliated stockholder, today announced that a leading independent proxy advisory firm, Institutional Shareholder Services Inc. (“ISS”), has recommended that stockholders vote on ATG Capital’s GOLD universal proxy card FOR the election of Gabriel D. Gliksberg and Aaron T. Morris to Empery Digital’s Board of Directors (the “Board”) at the Company’s upcoming Annual Meeting of Stockholders on October 14, 2026 (the “Annual Meeting”).

ISS also recommended stockholders WITHHOLD support from incumbent director Orn Olason, as well as Nominating and Corporate Governance Committee Chair Ian Read, and vote AGAINST the approval of Empery Digital’s equity incentive plan.

In its report, ISS affirmed ATG Capital’s case for boardroom change, stating:1

“The board's rejection of the dissident nominations appears to be an unjustified substitution of the board's judgment for that of shareholders. In addition, the board's functioning, details of which have come to light in trial, has been less than robust. Against this backdrop, the dissident has made a case for change.”“The board's March 26 rejection of the dissident's nominations includes four categories, 27 subcategories, and a total of 19 alleged deficiencies with the dissident's nominee questionnaires. To use the board's own words, it took a ‘kitchen sink’ approach in rejecting the dissident's nominations.”“The board's most salient action in this proxy contest was to invalidate the dissident's nomination of director candidates. The Delaware Chancery Court has found that the board did so improperly… This invalidation, and the company's self-described ‘kitchen sink’ approach to denying the nominations, evidences a board that is willing to unjustifiably substitute its judgment for that of its shareholders.”“In addition, the infirm functioning of the company's board and committees present legitimate reasons for shareholders to be concerned, at the very moment when the company is transitioning again to a new business model, and strong board and committee oversight is necessary.”“[M]uch shareholder value was destroyed in the company's foray into the DAT market, and should the company's pivot into passive investments in data centers not pay off, it is unclear how long shareholders' patience with the company's strategy, which changed twice in less than a year, will continue.”“This proxy contest has highlighted various situations where the company's shareholder communications could have been more complete. Such situations are described below: … On March 23, 2026, the company announced a registered direct offering, the proceeds of which, the company explained, would be used to reduce its debt. Confusingly, one week earlier, it had stated that the company had adequate cash to maintain appropriate leverage ratios, and that it would use ‘existing cash balances … to fund future share repurchases and potentially repay additional portions of outstanding borrowings.’ … The contradictions among these component statements are evident … On Sept. 8, 2026, the company stated that at the outset of its dispute with the dissident, it had offered to appoint one dissident nominee to the board, and that such offer was still valid. Curiously, the original offer, which in conversation with ISS the board related that it occurred in April 2026, was not included in the board's Background of the Solicitation section of its proxy statement…The disclosure of related party transactions in the company's annual proxy materials and amendments to its 10-K report list such transactions, but … the board’s statements characterizing this disclosure have not always been correct.”
_______________
1 Permission to quote ISS was neither sought nor received. Emphasis added. ISS report dated September 24, 2026.

Gabi Gliksberg, Founder and Managing Member of ATG Capital, issued the following statement:

“ISS has now independently reviewed the full record in this contest and reached the same conclusion stockholders have been reaching for months: change is warranted at Empery Digital. It found that this Board substituted its own judgment for that of its stockholders, that the Board and its committees have not functioned as they should, and that stockholders should not vote the Company's card.

Empery has spent more than $20 million of stockholders’ money fighting to keep our nominees off the ballot. It lost in the Delaware Court of Chancery. It has now lost the argument with ISS as well.

We are gratified by ISS's support for two of our nominees, and we continue to believe that the case for all four is stronger still. The Board’s own conduct — a rejected nomination notice, a 30-minute meeting to decide a matter of this weight, a governance committee chair who testified he did not know he held the role — is precisely why a meaningful independent presence in this boardroom matters. We urge stockholders to vote FOR James Elbaor, Gabi Gliksberg, Meredith Kirshenbaum and Aaron Morris.”

Vote FOR ATG Capital’s Four Nominees

Vote FOR James C. Elbaor, Gabriel D. Gliksberg, Meredith S. Kirshenbaum and Aaron T. Morris to support a refreshed Board focused on maximizing value for ALL Empery stockholders.

Do NOT vote for Rohan Chauhan, Ryan Lane, Orn Olason or Ian Read.

As ATG Capital is using a universal proxy card that includes both the ATG Nominees and the Company's nominees, there is no need to use any other proxy card regardless of how you intend to vote. However, we strongly urge you NOT to sign or return any proxy card or voting instruction form you receive from the Company. Even returning the Company’s white card marked “withhold” as a protest will revoke any proxy you previously submitted to us.

Questions about how to vote? Contact Saratoga Proxy Consulting LLC at (212) 257-1311, (888) 368-0379 or [email protected].

About ATG Capital Management LP

ATG Capital Management LP is a privately-held investment firm that manages investment vehicles for select accredited investors. ATG Capital invests primarily in public equity markets, utilizing alternative strategies including direct and constructive engagement, in pursuit of providing superior investment returns.

Media & Investor Contact

Saratoga Proxy Consulting LLC
John Ferguson, (212) 257-1311
[email protected]

TL;DR: Gold has held its 4,230.70 support through a sharp Treasury yield surge to multi-decade highs, but the real test isn’t whether it can absorb a short-lived spike—it’s whether that support survives a sustained regime with the 10-year yield staying above 5%.

Gold Has Survived the Yield Shock Gold has already survived something that should have hurt much more. Treasury yields have climbed to multi-decade highs, Fed tightening expectations have accelerated, and the Dollar remains firm—yet gold is still holding above 4,230, a key near-term Fibonacci support. The harder test may only be beginning: not whether yields spike, but whether they stay this high.

At around 4,275, gold remains well above the 3,942.43 June low, despite the increasingly hostile rates backdrop. More importantly, this week’s sharp Treasury selloff failed to force a break of 4,230.70, the 61.8% retracement of the rise from 3,942.43 to the 4,697.07 peak. Gold has therefore absorbed both the gradual rise in yields over recent months and the latest abrupt repricing without losing the support that defines its broader corrective structure.

That’s genuine resilience. But it’s not the same thing as renewed strength.

Resilient, but Increasingly Vulnerable The fundamental pressure on gold hasn’t stabilized. Markets are pricing a substantially greater probability of further Fed tightening, the US 10-year yield has pushed above 5%, and the Dollar remains broadly firm. Those forces continue to raise the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset.

The charts reflect that pressure. Gold is trading below both the 4H 55 EMA at 4,326.16 and the daily 55 EMA at 4,337.45, leaving immediate price action capped beneath moving averages on two timeframes simultaneously.

Momentum is also soft rather than exhausted. The 4H RSI at 40.88 and daily RSI at 43.87 are both below 50 but still have substantial room to fall before reaching oversold territory. MACD remains negative on both timeframes, with the deterioration on the daily chart particularly pronounced. In other words, gold’s price structure has held up better than its momentum structure.

That combination preserves the resilient-but-vulnerable framing: bears haven’t broken the level that matters, but bulls haven’t regained control either.

The Harder Test Is Yields Staying High The market question has now changed.

Earlier, the issue was whether gold could withstand rising Treasury yields. It largely has. Even this week’s rapid push in the 10-year and 30-year to multi-decade highs wasn’t enough to break the key support zone.

But a short-lived yield shock and a sustained high-yield regime are different things.

If the 10-year remains above or around 5% while Fed expectations continue shifting toward additional tightening, gold faces a more persistent headwind. A temporary spike can be absorbed. Weeks of elevated yields, a firm Dollar, and expectations of further rate increases would continuously pressure the relative attraction of holding gold.

That’s the test the market hasn’t completed yet.

ActionForex’s Technical View on Gold: 4,230 Is the Line That Matters Technically, the decline from 4,697.07 remains corrective rather than conclusively bearish. Price action has been overlapping and choppy rather than developing into a clean directional collapse, while repeated attempts to push below the low-4,200s have failed.

The key floor remains 4,230.70, with the recent low at 4,234.68 effectively retesting that area.

The importance of this level is asymmetric. A rebound above nearby resistance would show improving momentum, but a decisive break below 4,230.70 would undermine the central resilience argument itself. It would mean the support that survived both the gradual yield climb and the latest rates shock had finally failed. Such a break would reopen the broader 3,942.43 low as the next major downside reference.

Bulls Have Several Hurdles to Clear On the upside, gold first needs to reclaim the 4,326–4,337 area defined by the 4H and daily 55 EMAs. That would ease immediate downside pressure but wouldn’t by itself signal the correction from 4,697.07 is finished.

A more meaningful recovery requires a break above the 4,410 area, followed by the broader 4,410–4,520 resistance zone. A sustained move through that cluster would materially strengthen the case that the corrective phase is ending and put 4,697.07 back into focus.

Until then, rebounds remain vulnerable to selling into resistance. That creates a relatively clean structure:

Above 4,410–4,520, the correction begins to lose control, reopening 4,697.07. Below 4,230.70, the resilience thesis weakens sharply, reopening 3,942.43.

Gold Has Held—Now It Must Prove It Can Keep Holding Gold’s relative stability through the Treasury breakout is noteworthy. The metal hasn’t ignored higher yields—the decline from 4,697.07 makes that clear—but neither has it capitulated despite an increasingly difficult macro backdrop.

That makes gold resilient, but still vulnerable.

The next meaningful signal won’t come from another intraday move around 4,275. It will come from whether 4,230.70 survives a sustained period of Treasury yields above 5%, and whether gold can reclaim both 55 EMAs before rates find another leg higher.

Upcoming US payrolls and CPI could determine whether the rates pressure intensifies or finally eases. If neither changes the Fed narrative, gold may have to prove its support can withstand something harder than a yield shock: a high-yield regime that refuses to go away.

Key Takeaways Gold held 4,230.70 support through a sharp Treasury selloff that pushed the 10-year yield above 5% for the first time in multi-decade highs. Gold’s price structure has held up better than its momentum structure: it’s below both 55 EMAs (4,326.16 4H, 4,337.45 daily) with RSI soft on both timeframes. The real test has shifted from whether gold can absorb a yield spike to whether it can withstand a sustained regime of yields staying above 5%. A break below 4,230.70 would undermine the resilience thesis and reopen the 3,942.43 June low; a break above the 4,410-4,520 zone would instead reopen 4,697.07. Upcoming US payrolls and CPI are the next catalysts that could determine whether rate pressure on gold intensifies or eases.

ActionForex

ActionForex.com was set up back in 2004 with the aim to provide insightful analysis to forex traders, serving the trading community for two decades. We started providing only a daily and a mid-day report, now known as Action Insights. Gradually, we added a lot more in-house contents to the site. Technical Outlook section was expanded to cover more pairs. In addition to that, Top Movers, Heat Map, Pivot Point Charts and Pivot Meters, Action Bias and Volatility Charts, are tools used by traders from all over the world.

The 10-year yield closed Wednesday at 5.11 percent, its highest since July 2007, the five-year crossed 5 percent for the first time since 2007, and October’s hike is now priced at about 70 percent after the flash PMIs showed the fastest business activity since 2021 with input and output prices at multi-year highs. Governor Barr said more hikes are needed. Brent settled near $103, the dollar rose against every major currency, and gold settled at $4,324.40, down $52 on the day and $60 in two sessions.

The point is that this is not a short-term rally. It’s either a medium- or a long-term rally in the USD Index.

The USDX once again held above the rising, long-term support line despite several attempts to move below it.

How many times have you read that the USD is trash because of twin deficits, Fed’s approach, US political situation, inflation, and so on and so forth?

Probably more than you care to count.

And yet – the chart doesn’t lie. The USD Index has been on the rise since 2008.

For almost 20 years!

The big trend here is up, and the USD Index is now starting to rally from the lower border of the broad trading channel. This is an exceptionally bullish long-term setup and one that other markets won’t be able to ignore.

The base for the rally was huge – bigger than the previous ones. And I wrote about it when it formed – in my gold price forecast for September 2026, I warned that this “breakdown” was really a bottoming process and that this was bullish, not bearish. We previously had broad bottoms that usually took the form of double bottoms. This time, it was a multi-bottom, which means that the implications are even more bullish.

We have to remember what happened after the final bottoms of the previous broad bottoms – I marked those cases with green arrows and green, dashed lines. The USD Index soared in all those cases, and I think we’ll see the same thing also this time.

Implications for precious metals used to be either bearish or extremely bearish. Right now, we’re very likely in the latter type of analogy. The reason is that right now we’re after a powerful rally and a major top and this is what we saw only two times in the past years – in 2008 and in 2011-2012. When the USD Index soared – from a broad bottom – then the precious metals (and copper) truly plunged.

This time, copper has support of rising stocks, but this is likely to end as well.

· Higher USD makes U.S. exports less competitive.

·  High rates make credit more expensive (not to mention the burden of the higher mortgage payments).

·  And higher oil – I don’t think I need to explain this one.

The geopolitical situation continues to support higher oil and higher USD, so those technicals don’t work in isolation.

Thank you for reading today’s analysis – I appreciate that you took the time to dig deeper and that you read the entire piece. If you’d like to get more (and extra details not available to 99% investors), I invite you to stay updated with our free analyses – sign up for our free gold newsletter now.

Thank you.

Sincerely,

Przemysław K. Radomski, CFA

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Gold tests critical support near $4,270 after a deeper pullback, while the wedge breakout remains intact and a move above $4,400 could target $4,511.

Pullback Reaches Critical Support Gold continued to weaken into lower support levels on Wednesday, reaching a lower daily low of $4,275. The metal is set to end the session near the session lows, as it continues to trade in that area at the time of writing. Wednesday’s decline broke below the 50-day moving average, which was recently tested as support after being reclaimed last Thursday. This is short-term bearish behavior that came close to completing a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the prior short-term upswing at $4,270 and tested support near the downtrend line and a rising trendline.

Spot gold daily chart shows a deeper pullback. Source: TradingView $4,270 Becomes Key Near-Term Level Therefore, that Fibonacci level presents a key near-term level. A decisive decline below it will also trigger a break below the uptrend line and further confirm the failure of support at both the 50-day moving average and downtrend line. For now, the expectation for an eventual resolution to the upside remains unless support fails to hold at the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement zone.

Spot gold daily chart shows larger trend structure. Source: TradingView $4,369 Offers First Sign of Strength A decisive advance above Wednesday’s high of $4,369 would be the next sign of strength on the daily timeframe, especially since the 20-day moving average has confirmed resistance this week near the highs of each day. Consequently, a breakout above Wednesday’s high may quickly reclaim the 20-day moving average and add to the potential for the completion of the short-term pullback.

Falling-Wedge Breakout Keeps Bulls Engaged The larger pattern unfolding remains a bullish breakout from a falling wedge pattern that triggered on Friday with a rally above the top boundary line of the pattern. Strength was seen following the establishment of strong support at the confluence of several indicators. This suggested that the recent bearish correction may have completed with a higher swing low of $4,235 that was generated last week.

$4,400 Breakout Opens $4,511 Target If gold is able to rise above last week’s high of $4,400, a bullish continuation signal will be generated. The next upside target would then be the initial target derived from the wedge pattern at $4,511.

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Latest news and analysis

23.9.2026 17:34

Index Dow Jones -0,34 % na 51686,38 b. S&P 500 -0,51 % na 7725,14 b. Nasdaq Composite -0,91 % na 26995,47 b.

Ve středeční seanci americké indexy korigují předchozí růst a to v situaci, kdy trhu chybí zatím výraznější impulzy. Investoři v průběhu tohoto týdne vstřebávali zprávy o novém agentovi s umělou inteligencí od společnosti Meta Platforms a zároveň sledovali případná jednání mezi USA a Íránem na okraj Valného shromáždění OSN. Velká část pozornosti trhů se však přesunula od Blízkého východu zpět k umělé inteligenci (AI), konkrétně k prudce rostoucí poptávce spotřebitelů po novém AI agentovi společnosti Meta Platforms s názvem Muse. Rychlý nárůst počtu stažení této aplikace podnítil prudký růst akcií firem vyrábějících čipy, na nichž tato technologie stojí, a zároveň posunul index Nasdaq Composite na nová rekordní maxima. Příchod Muse však také znovu oživil obavy z počátku roku 2026 ohledně možného narušení odvětví finančních služeb. Muse navázala spolupráci se společnostmi, jako jsou PayPal a fintechová platforma Plaid, s cílem posílit svou přítomnost v oblastech, jako jsou platby a finanční plánování. Pozornost investorů se bude směrovat na čtvrtek, kdy americký prezident Trump se setká s čínským prezidentem  Si Ťin-pchingem, kde umělá inteligence bude jedním z mnoha témat, která má Trump v plánu probrat se Si Ťin-pchingem během státní návštěvy čínského prezidenta ve Washingtonu, jež se uskuteční tento týden. Zůstává však nejisté, zda bude některý z lídrů ochoten ustoupit v otázce AI – technologie, v jejímž využívání spolu USA a Čína soupeří. Dalším klíčovým tématem bude obchod. Podle deníku The Wall Street Journal chce Bílý dům znovu potvrdit závazek Pekingu dodržovat příměří v celní válce, na němž se obě strany dohodly během Trumpovy návštěvy u Si Ťin-pchinga v Pekingu začátkem tohoto roku. Tato dohoda, jejíž platnost vyprší v listopadu, zabránila obnovení vzájemné obchodní války mezi dvěma největšími ekonomikami světa.

V centru zájmu investorů je také ropa a podle dnešního reportu EIA zásoby surové ropy ke dni 16.9. vzrostly o 2,969 mil. barelů, když trh předpokládal naopak pokles o 0,690 mil. barelů. Po předchozí korekci a ústupu ceny WTI z úrovně nad 100 USD/barel lehká ropa WTI posiluje o více než 1,6% a dostává se k úrovni 91,9 USD/barel. Tato situace je dnes příznivě nakloněna akciím v těžebním sektoru černého zlata a tak akcie těžebního obra Exxon Mobil ( XOM )se posouvají výš o cca 1,8% a také akcie Marathonu Petroleum ( MPC ) jsou na tom podobně se ziskem cca 1,7%. Velmi dobře si dnes vedou také akcie brazilského těžaře Petrobrasu ( PBR ), jež se posunují výš o více než 2,8% a také akcie britské skupiny BP  ( BP ) posilují o více než 2,9% a též akcie Occidentalu Petroleum ( OXY ) na své tržní ceně přidávají cca 1,8%. Za zmínku stojí také akcie amerického výrobce a dodavatele těžní techniky Chevronu ( CVX ), kde akcie rostou o více než 1,6% a také akcie jeho amerického konkurenta Halliburtonu ( HAL ) obchodují se ziskem 0,5% a též akcie francouzského Schlumbergeru ( SLB ) přidávají na tržní ceně více než 0,5%.

Za zmínku stojí potravinářská společnost General Mills ( GIS ), která reportovala výsledky hospodaření za rok 2027 a to za první kvartál fiskálního roku 2027, který skončil 30. srpna 2026. Tržby i očištěný zisk na akcii za kvartál nepatrně překonaly odhady analytiků, přičemž organické tržby zůstaly meziročně beze změny při očekávání poklesu o 1,79 %. Společnost zároveň potvrdila celoroční výhled pro fiskální rok 2027. Bohužel provozní zisk ve výši 634 mil. USD klesl meziročně o 63 %, a to především kvůli zisku ve výši 1 mld. USD z odprodeje jogurtového byznysu před rokem. Očištěný provozní zisk dosáhl 634 mil. USD a při konstantních měnových kurzech se snížil o 11 %. Očištěná provozní marže klesla o 130 bazických bodů na 14,4 %. Společnost potvrdila celoroční výhled pro fiskální rok 2027, ale někteří investoři čekali zřejmě více a tak akcie General Mills ( GIS ) dnes ztrácí na tržní ceně -2%.

Dnes se nedaří žlutému kovu, který ztrácí cca -1,5% a zlato se tak dostává k úrovni 4 316 USD/Troy. unci. Zlatu dnes nepomáhá dolar, který na páru s eurem přidává cca 0,5% tj. 1,1396 USD/EUR. Tato situace příliš nevyhovuje akciím v těžebním sektoru zlata a tak akcie největšího kanadského těžaře Barrick Mining ( B ) oslabují o více než -3,2% a také akcie jeho amerického konkurenta Newmontu ( NEM ) dnes ztrácí  více než -3,7% a také akcie známého těžaře Eldorado Gold ( EGO ) si odepisují z tržní ceny -4,5%.

Z indexu S&P 500 se daří akciím amerického výrobce vakcín Moderna ( MRNA ) 3,5%, kde společnost již v pondělí oznámila, že v říjnu představí data  ke své personalizované vakcíně proti rakovině. Naopak se nedaří akciím Paychex ( PAYX )  -7,2% , poskytující mzdové a HR služby pro malé a střední firmy,  a a to po reportu výsledků za 1Q FY 2027.

Index S&P 500 -0,51 % na 7725,14 b. Nejsilnější sektory S&P Změna Nejslabší sektory S&P Změna Energie +1,4 % Utility -1,5 % Průmysl +0,4 % Zbytná spotřeba -1,4 % Finanční sektor +0,1 % Komunikační služby -1,1 % Nejsilnější akcie S&P Změna Nejslabší akcie S&P Změna APA Corp (APA) +3,5 % Expedia Group (EXPE) -7,9 % Crowdstrike Holdings (CRWD) +3,3 % Paychex (PAYX) -7,2 % Veeva Systems (VEEV) +3,2 % AppLovin Corp (APP) -5,7 % Palantir Technologies (PLTR) +3,2 % Airbnb (ABNB) -5,4 % Palo Alto Networks (PANW) +3,2 % McDonald's Corp (MCD) -5,1 %
Luboš Bedrník
Fio banka, a.s.
Prohlášení

Gold.com Inc. (NYSE:GOLD – Get Free Report) Director Jeffrey Benjamin sold 13,952 shares of Gold.com stock in a transaction that occurred on Monday, September 21st. The shares were sold at an average price of $44.26, for a total value of $617,515.52. Following the completion of the sale, the director directly owned 279,594 shares in the company, valued at $12,374,830.44. This represents a 4.75% decrease in their position. The sale was disclosed in a filing with the SEC, which can be accessed through the SEC website.

Gold.com Trading Up 2.1% Shares of GOLD stock opened at $44.71 on Wednesday. The stock has a 50 day simple moving average of $43.71 and a 200-day simple moving average of $43.53. The company has a market cap of $1.30 billion, a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.31 and a beta of 0.56. Gold.com Inc. has a 12-month low of $23.00 and a 12-month high of $66.70.

Gold.com (NYSE:GOLD – Get Free Report) last posted its quarterly earnings results on Wednesday, September 2nd. The company reported $0.41 earnings per share for the quarter, missing analysts’ consensus estimates of $0.96 by ($0.55). Gold.com had a net margin of 0.32% and a return on equity of 17.22%. The business had revenue of $5.01 billion during the quarter, compared to analysts’ expectations of $5.67 billion. During the same quarter last year, the firm earned $0.41 earnings per share. On average, equities analysts forecast that Gold.com Inc. will post 3.73 earnings per share for the current fiscal year.

Gold.com Announces Dividend The business also recently announced a special dividend, which will be paid on Monday, September 28th. Shareholders of record on Wednesday, September 16th will be given a dividend of $0.20 per share. The ex-dividend date is Wednesday, September 16th. Gold.com’s payout ratio is presently 27.40%. Key Gold.com News Here are the key news stories impacting Gold.com this week:

Positive Sentiment: Gold.com appointed Jill Van as chief financial officer, a leadership development that could support financial planning and investor confidence, although the announcement provided limited operational detail. Gold.com Names Jill Van as CFO Neutral Sentiment: A market comparison involving Herc Holdings and Gold.com offered no specific new information about Gold.com’s earnings, operations, or valuation, limiting its likely impact on the stock. Analyzing Herc and Gold.com Negative Sentiment: Director Jeffrey Benjamin sold 39,067 Gold.com shares over September 18–22 for approximately $1.74 million in total proceeds. His ownership declined to 261,546 shares, or roughly 13% below his pre-sale position. The sales may signal profit-taking rather than a fundamental change, but repeated insider selling can weigh on sentiment. SEC insider transaction filing Negative Sentiment: Gold.com recently settled at $43.80 after declining 3.65% despite broader market gains, indicating company-specific selling pressure. The weakness followed the company’s latest earnings report, which showed EPS and revenue below consensus estimates. Gold.com Stock Drops Despite Market Gains Institutional Inflows and Outflows A number of hedge funds have recently made changes to their positions in GOLD. Jacobs Asset Management LLC acquired a new position in shares of Gold.com during the 4th quarter worth $10,215,000. Empowered Funds LLC boosted its position in shares of Gold.com by 42.5% in the 1st quarter. Empowered Funds LLC now owns 277,029 shares of the company’s stock worth $11,103,000 after buying an additional 82,637 shares in the last quarter. CenterBook Partners LP acquired a new stake in Gold.com in the 4th quarter valued at about $9,171,000. Pacer Advisors Inc. acquired a new stake in Gold.com in the 4th quarter valued at about $6,185,000. Finally, Bank of New York Mellon Corp purchased a new position in Gold.com during the 2nd quarter valued at about $7,143,000. Hedge funds and other institutional investors own 62.85% of the company’s stock.

Wall Street Analysts Forecast Growth A number of equities analysts have recently issued reports on the stock. DA Davidson reiterated a “buy” rating and issued a $60.00 price target on shares of Gold.com in a report on Thursday, September 3rd. Canaccord Genuity Group decreased their price objective on shares of Gold.com from $70.00 to $65.00 and set a “buy” rating on the stock in a report on Thursday, September 3rd. Weiss Ratings restated a “hold (c+)” rating on shares of Gold.com in a research report on Monday, August 17th. Wall Street Zen cut shares of Gold.com from a “hold” rating to a “sell” rating in a report on Saturday, September 12th. Finally, Zacks Research downgraded shares of Gold.com from a “strong-buy” rating to a “hold” rating in a research report on Wednesday, July 1st. Four investment analysts have rated the stock with a Buy rating and two have assigned a Hold rating to the company. According to data from MarketBeat, the company currently has a consensus rating of “Moderate Buy” and an average target price of $58.00.

Read Our Latest Analysis on Gold.com

Gold.com Company Profile (Get Free Report)

Gold.com, Inc, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a precious metals company. It operates through three segments: Wholesale Sales & Ancillary Services, Direct-to-Consumer, and Secured Lending. The Wholesale Sales & Ancillary Services segment sells gold, silver, platinum, and palladium in the form of bars, plates, powders, wafers, grains, ingots, and coins. This segment also offers complementary services, such as receiving, handling, inventorying, processing, packing, and shipping of precious metals and custom coins on a secure basis; and designs and produces minted silver products.

Featured Stories Five stocks we like better than Gold.com Meta’s Muse Highlights Arm’s Growing Role in AI Infrastructure Oura’s $15.6 Billion IPO Is Betting Investors See More Than a Smart Ring AMD Chips Away at NVIDIA’s AI Throne Is the Fed Playing Chess With Rates—Or Just Behind the Curve Again?

Receive News & Ratings for Gold.com Daily - Enter your email address below to receive a concise daily summary of the latest news and analysts' ratings for Gold.com and related companies with MarketBeat.com's FREE daily email newsletter.

Gold.com Inc. (NYSE:GOLD – Get Free Report) Director Jeffrey Benjamin sold 7,067 shares of the firm’s stock in a transaction that occurred on Friday, September 18th. The shares were sold at an average price of $45.24, for a total transaction of $319,711.08. Following the completion of the sale, the director owned 293,546 shares in the company, valued at approximately $13,280,021.04. The trade was a 2.35% decrease in their ownership of the stock. The transaction was disclosed in a filing with the SEC, which can be accessed through this link.

Gold.com Price Performance GOLD stock opened at $44.71 on Wednesday. The company has a 50 day simple moving average of $43.71 and a 200 day simple moving average of $43.53. The stock has a market cap of $1.30 billion, a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.31 and a beta of 0.56. Gold.com Inc. has a 1 year low of $23.00 and a 1 year high of $66.70.

Gold.com (NYSE:GOLD – Get Free Report) last issued its earnings results on Wednesday, September 2nd. The company reported $0.41 earnings per share for the quarter, missing analysts’ consensus estimates of $0.96 by ($0.55). The company had revenue of $5.01 billion during the quarter, compared to analyst estimates of $5.67 billion. Gold.com had a net margin of 0.32% and a return on equity of 17.22%. During the same quarter in the prior year, the business earned $0.41 EPS. On average, equities research analysts anticipate that Gold.com Inc. will post 3.73 EPS for the current fiscal year.

Gold.com Announces Dividend The company also recently disclosed a special dividend, which will be paid on Monday, September 28th. Investors of record on Wednesday, September 16th will be given a dividend of $0.20 per share. The ex-dividend date is Wednesday, September 16th. Gold.com’s payout ratio is currently 27.40%. Institutional Trading of Gold.com Institutional investors have recently added to or reduced their stakes in the stock. Larson Financial Group LLC acquired a new stake in Gold.com during the 4th quarter worth about $41,000. SkyView Investment Advisors LLC acquired a new position in shares of Gold.com in the 2nd quarter valued at about $125,000. Caitong International Asset Management Co. Ltd bought a new stake in shares of Gold.com during the 4th quarter valued at about $129,000. Integrated Wealth Concepts LLC bought a new stake in Gold.com in the second quarter worth approximately $225,000. Finally, Arizona State Retirement System lifted its stake in Gold.com by 7.1% in the second quarter. Arizona State Retirement System now owns 5,435 shares of the company’s stock valued at $226,000 after buying an additional 359 shares during the period. 62.85% of the stock is currently owned by institutional investors.

Gold.com News Roundup Here are the key news stories impacting Gold.com this week:

Positive Sentiment: Gold.com appointed Jill Van as chief financial officer, a leadership development that could support financial planning and investor confidence, although the announcement provided limited operational detail. Gold.com Names Jill Van as CFO Neutral Sentiment: A market comparison involving Herc Holdings and Gold.com offered no specific new information about Gold.com’s earnings, operations, or valuation, limiting its likely impact on the stock. Analyzing Herc and Gold.com Negative Sentiment: Director Jeffrey Benjamin sold 39,067 Gold.com shares over September 18–22 for approximately $1.74 million in total proceeds. His ownership declined to 261,546 shares, or roughly 13% below his pre-sale position. The sales may signal profit-taking rather than a fundamental change, but repeated insider selling can weigh on sentiment. SEC insider transaction filing Negative Sentiment: Gold.com recently settled at $43.80 after declining 3.65% despite broader market gains, indicating company-specific selling pressure. The weakness followed the company’s latest earnings report, which showed EPS and revenue below consensus estimates. Gold.com Stock Drops Despite Market Gains Analyst Ratings Changes A number of analysts have recently commented on the company. Wall Street Zen lowered Gold.com from a “hold” rating to a “sell” rating in a research note on Saturday, September 12th. Northland Securities set a $55.00 price objective on shares of Gold.com in a report on Thursday, September 3rd. Zacks Research downgraded shares of Gold.com from a “strong-buy” rating to a “hold” rating in a research report on Wednesday, July 1st. Weiss Ratings restated a “hold (c+)” rating on shares of Gold.com in a research report on Monday, August 17th. Finally, Canaccord Genuity Group dropped their price target on shares of Gold.com from $70.00 to $65.00 and set a “buy” rating for the company in a research note on Thursday, September 3rd. Four research analysts have rated the stock with a Buy rating and two have assigned a Hold rating to the company’s stock. According to data from MarketBeat.com, the stock presently has an average rating of “Moderate Buy” and a consensus target price of $58.00.

Read Our Latest Stock Report on Gold.com

About Gold.com (Get Free Report)

Gold.com, Inc, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a precious metals company. It operates through three segments: Wholesale Sales & Ancillary Services, Direct-to-Consumer, and Secured Lending. The Wholesale Sales & Ancillary Services segment sells gold, silver, platinum, and palladium in the form of bars, plates, powders, wafers, grains, ingots, and coins. This segment also offers complementary services, such as receiving, handling, inventorying, processing, packing, and shipping of precious metals and custom coins on a secure basis; and designs and produces minted silver products.

Further Reading Five stocks we like better than Gold.com Meta’s Muse Highlights Arm’s Growing Role in AI Infrastructure Oura’s $15.6 Billion IPO Is Betting Investors See More Than a Smart Ring AMD Chips Away at NVIDIA’s AI Throne Is the Fed Playing Chess With Rates—Or Just Behind the Curve Again?

Receive News & Ratings for Gold.com Daily - Enter your email address below to receive a concise daily summary of the latest news and analysts' ratings for Gold.com and related companies with MarketBeat.com's FREE daily email newsletter.

EUR/USD falls to a 10-week low despite Eurozone growth picking up
EUR/USD has fallen to a 10-week low, down around 2.4% over the past month amid USD strength and despite stronger-than-expected Eurozone PMI data.

Eurozone PMI data showed that business activity grew at a faster pace in September. The service sector PMI rose to 53.0, up from 51.6 in August and ahead of expectations of 51.7. Manufacturing PMI remained unchanged at 52.7, in line with forecasts, while the composite PMI, considered a good gauge of overall business activity, rose to 53.1, defying expectations of a decline to 51.5 and hitting a 41-month high.

Even solid economic data is failing to offer support to the euro, which is coming under increasing pressure amid a growing Fed-ECB divide.

Last week, the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates by 25 basis points and signalled that another rate hike could come before the end of the year, offering further support to the greenback, which now trades at a seven-week high.

The euro has a more complicated backdrop. Inflation risks remain high owing to the jump in energy prices linked to tensions in the Middle East, increasing costs for both households and businesses. However, the ECB faces the difficult balancing act of keeping inflation under control while avoiding unnecessary pressure on a fragile economy.

ECB Vice President Vogt noted that persistent energy costs could eventually weaken consumption and economic growth. This contrasts with the more hawkish stance heard from Fed officials this week.

The Fed-ECB divergence remains a clear driver for EUR/USD. The Fed is gearing up for additional hikes, while the ECB has less room to manoeuvre. The market is now pricing in a 53% probability of another Fed rate hike at the October meeting.

EUR/USD forecast – technical analysis

EUR/USD has broken down below its rising channel and is trading below its 50 and 200 EMAs, keeping the technical picture bearish. The price has fallen to 1.1415 at the time of writing, as sellers look towards 1.1350, the July 27 low. A break below here opens the door to a deeper sell-off towards 1.1300.

Any recovery would first need to rise above 1.1500. Above here, attention turns to 1.1570, the 200 EMA and horizontal resistance. A break above this area would put the pair on a more stable footing.

Gold under pressure as a stronger USD offsets falling oil prices
Gold has fallen towards $4,320 on Wednesday as the market weighs the latest developments surrounding the Middle East, easing inflation fears and expectations for further Fed rate hikes.

Markets have been following the latest U.S.-Iran talks, with Iran setting conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, while President Trump has hailed good progress in discussions. At the same time, Saudi Arabia is working to restore oil flows through the East-West pipeline. Together, these developments have helped Brent fall below $100 a barrel as supply concerns ease.

The drop in oil prices should ease inflationary fears and reduce pressure for further Fed rate hikes, which would normally be supportive for gold.

However, at the same time, the dollar is trading at a two-month high on expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates elevated for longer in order to curb persistent inflation.

The Fed hiked rates by 25 basis points last week and pointed to further rate hikes before the end of the year. Fed speakers this week have also been supportive of further tightening. Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin warned that inflationary shocks could take time to subside, while Boston Fed President Susan Collins said she supported last week's rate hike amid concerns that future inflation could remain above target. The market is pricing in a 53% probability of a Fed rate hike in October.

This hawkish stance has helped the dollar rise to a two-month high, putting pressure on U.S.-dollar-denominated gold. While gold is seen as a hedge against inflation, its appeal fades when higher interest rates increase returns on yield-bearing investments.

Elsewhere, China's gold imports through August surpassed 1,000 tonnes, already exceeding the full-year total for 2025, amid strong investment demand.

Markets will now look to U.S. PMI data for clues about the health of the U.S. economy. Strong economic activity combined with signs of continued price pressures could boost the dollar and put further pressure on gold.

Gold forecast – technical analysis

After breaking out of the symmetrical triangle pattern, gold ran into resistance around $4,700 before easing back towards $4,320, where it is consolidating around the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the move from the $5,998 high to the $3,940 low, as well as the 50 and 200 EMAs.

Sellers will need to break below this area to turn attention towards $4,200 and then $4,100, the March low. A break below $4,100 would shift attention towards $3,940, the 2026 low.

Should support hold, buyers will look towards $4,500 and then $4,575, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. A rise above $4,700 would create a higher high, with buyers then looking towards $4,770, the 50% Fibonacci retracement, before $5,000 comes into focus.

TWO HOLES IDENTIFY SHALLOW, HIGH-GRADE ANTIMONY-GOLD MINERALIZATION 170 METRES NORTH OF PAST PRODUCING MERRIMAC MINE  TONOPAH, Nev., Sept. 22, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- A2Gold Corp. ("A2Gold" or the "Company") (TSX-V: AUAU) (OTCQX: AUXXF) (FRA: RR7) is pleased to report that the first four holes from its initial reverse circulation ("RC") drill program at the Taylor Silver-Gold Project ("Taylor" or the "Project") have intersected shallow, high-grade antimony-gold mineralization and broad, high-grade silver mineralization.