Daily Spot Gold (XAU/USD) Daily Spot Gold (XAUUSD) is edging lower on Tuesday. The main trend is up, but traders are struggling to take out $4449.83 to reaffirm the uptrend. The trend will turn down on a move through the last swing bottom at $4311.04.
The long-term range is the April 17 main top at $4891.54 and the June 30 main bottom at $3942.10. Its 50% level at $4416.82 has been providing resistance for six straight sessions. Additional resistance is the 200-day moving average at $4507.45. The longer-term bulls are hoping for a breakout over this indicator in order to draw in the institutions.
The short-term range is $3942.10 to $4449.83. If the trend changes to down then its retracement zone at $4195.96 to $4136.05 along with the 50-day moving average at $4150.57 will become the primary target zone.
What to Watch The long bond is running this trade. Gold has the softer dollar and the lower hike odds and neither one has been enough to push through six sessions of resistance. Crude back above $91 is feeding the same fiscal and inflation story that has the 30-year at a 19-year high. FOMC minutes Wednesday can either confirm that the three July dissenters were alone or show the committee is more worried than the vote suggested.
Gold is stuck between a front end that favors buyers and a long end that will not let them through. The 200-day overhead is where the trade changes. The swing bottom below is where it breaks. The bond market picks the direction.
If you’d like to know more about how to trade gold, please visit our educational area.
All this month USD has been getting weaker, and this has helped the price of Gold and Silver.
However, that’s not the whole story.
In today’s Market Outlook, let’s take a look at Forex trading on Gold, XAUUSD, Silver, XAGUSD, GBPUSD, EURGBP, WTI and Brent Crude Oil.
There are 6 reasons that investors are heading to gold as a safe haven:
US fiscal deficits are increasing, and political turmoil isn’t helping.
Treasury supply of T-bills and investors are becoming increasingly nervous about the US bond market.
Inflation, which is a direct result of crazy tariffs and energy costs because of the Iran war.
Geopolitical risk is still high, not just in the Middle East.
Diversification away from US assets is important for many investors for financial and political reasons.
Many central banks are changing their FX reserve holdings from USD and going to other currencies and gold.
Many analysts are eyeing $4,500 soon and $5,000 later in the year.
This may actually get worse after tomorrow’s FOMC, so keep an eye on the economic news.
Also, we see UK CPI tomorrow, so watch your calendars and some News Catalyst Fade moves on GBP pairs.
You will note this huge dip in EURGBP caused by a US Treasury report late last night.
Also, as we saw on the calendar, yesterday’s UK claimant count was positive for GBP, and our indicators caught the point of reversal here.
On other GBP pairs, we see GBPUSD in an uptrend retracing toward the lower trendline, so we will wait to see if our indicators give us confirmation.
And, let’s take a look at Crude Oil.
As we try to follow trends, it becomes difficult with the turmoil between the US and Iran and the very restricted number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
Also, the latest jump is based on yesterday’s violence in Lebanon, so the price of oil isn’t just being dictated by the war in Iran.
Just keep your eye on the news regarding peace talks and threats of more aggression.
Gold prices fell in Philippines on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 8,708.93 Philippine Pesos (PHP) per gram, down compared with the PHP 8,756.55 it cost on Monday.
The price for Gold decreased to PHP 101,579.90 per tola from PHP 102,134.70 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in PHP
1 Gram
8,708.93
10 Grams
87,089.84
Tola
101,579.90
Troy Ounce
270,876.80
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Philippines by adapting international prices (USD/PHP) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices fell in Pakistan on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 39,222.46 Pakistani Rupees (PKR) per gram, down compared with the PKR 39,439.59 it cost on Monday.
The price for Gold decreased to PKR 457,483.60 per tola from PKR 460,015.60 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in PKR
1 Gram
39,222.46
10 Grams
392,224.60
Tola
457,483.60
Troy Ounce
1,219,921.00
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Pakistan by adapting international prices (USD/PKR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Indian rupee intervention returns as USD/INR hovers near all-time highUKMTO report a vessel hit by a projectile while sailing out of the Strait of Hormuz.Analysts say that a surprise China LPR cut cannot be ruled out this weekBHP CEO plays down Canada uranium talk, stays focused on four pillarsWestpac says dollar's structural headwinds outweigh recent resilience, see EUR/USD and GBP/USD higherING says heavy tone in Treasuries has further to run as truce lapsesICYMI: ETF flows return to gold as Saxo flags 289-tonne central bank demandAustralian consumer sentiment rises 6% to 88.9 but stays deep in pessimismPBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.7905 (vs. estimate at 6.7452)Goldman calls September Fed hike very unlikely as inflation easesChina unveils nine-department plan to boost county-level consumptionPBOC seen shifting to overnight reverse repos as core liquidity toolICYMI: Wells Fargo cuts 2026 gold target to $4,900-5,100, still bullish overallGold nears $4,500 resistance as central bank buying meets fading Fed hike betsJoint US-Japan intervention loses grip as USD/JPY climbs back above 159Morgan Stanley targets EUR/AUD at 1.53, backs Aussie dollar carry tradeUBS stays constructive on equities as Fed hike case weakens on soft dataJackson Hole hype outruns Warsh playbook of saying as little as possibleOil up, a packed 24 hours. Iran shifts to fully offensive posture as Trump threatens to bomb Oman over Hormuz.US stock indices closed lower on the day. Declines are led by the S&P/DowinvestingLive Americas FX news wrap 17 AugSummary:
UKMTO reported a vessel was struck while transiting the Strait of Hormuz, sustaining engine room damage and a crew casualty; further detail on the attack, including attribution and the extent of casualties, remains unconfirmedThe US diesel crack, the premium of diesel futures over WTI, hit a record $102.20 a barrel, with agricultural and shipping demand adding to strain from Iran and Ukraine-linked supply disruptionsThe 10-year JGB yield rose to around 2.945%, its highest level since September 1996; the 5-year yield was also reported up, to 2.18% and its highest ever.Foreign holdings of US Treasuries fell to $9.299 trillion in June, led by declines from Japan, the UK and ChinaThe RBI is seen selling US dollars to support the rupee as USD/INR trades near record highsAsian equities were mixed, with Japan's Nikkei and Topix under pressure and Chinese mainland indices reported lower into the midday break; South Korea's KOSPI move needs confirmation given conflicting reports on directionOil markets found renewed support Monday after UKMTO reported a vessel was struck while transiting the Strait of Hormuz, sustaining damage to its engine room and a crew casualty. The incident adds to an already fragile picture in the strait following the lapse of the 60-day US-Iran memorandum of understanding, with the market continuing to price a lack of near-term de-escalation.
The US diesel crack, the premium of diesel futures over West Texas Intermediate crude, hit a record $102.20 a barrel, as global supply disruptions tied to the wars in Iran and Ukraine collided with peak agricultural consumption season. Refining margins at that level typically flow through to broader costs over time, with agriculture and shipping both reliant on diesel-powered equipment and heating oil demand set to add further pressure heading into winter. Higher refining costs are expected to filter through to consumers and businesses via transport and logistics costs in the coming weeks and months.
Elevated bond yields remained a global theme beyond the US. Japan's 10-year government bond yield rose to around 2.95%, its highest level since September 1996, while the 5-year yield was also reported higher on the session, extending a recent run of multi-decade highs across the JGB curve. In the US, data released after regular trading hours showed foreign holdings of Treasuries fell to $9.299 trillion in June, led by declines from Japan, the UK and China. The data series is volatile month to month, but the latest reading adds to the case, at the margin, for continued upward pressure on yields.
Major currencies traded relatively steadily. NZD was heqavy, with wekaer China data yesterday cited. The Reserve Bank of India is seen selling US dollars to support the rupee, with USD/INR trading near record highs, extending a pattern of periodic intervention through 2026 amid persistent foreign equity outflows, elevated oil prices, and ongoing US tariff friction tied to India's Russian oil purchases.
Asian equities were mixed. Japan's Nikkei and Topix indices slid, while South Korea's KOSPI showed early strength before a later pullback. Chinese mainland benchmarks were reported lower into the midday break, with the Shanghai Composite, Shenzhen Component and ChiNext all pointing to a weaker session.
Gold fund flows have turned positive after months of outflows, while Goldman says private activity is becoming more closely tied to gold prices. Goldman Sachs says gold-fund flows have “picked up meaningfully after seeing net outflows for much of this year.”
Its analysis also finds that the relationship between fund activity and gold prices has strengthened since the start of 2025 as private-sector buying and selling increased.
Private buyers matter more than they did That observation describes a changing market structure; it is not a new Goldman price target and it does not prove that flows alone caused the latest move.
The Goldman series covers mutual funds and related investment products, so it measures one defined channel of demand rather than every physical, futures or official-sector transaction.
Gold was trading near $4,426.70 late on Monday, up about 1.26% on the day and more than 10% over one month.
Gold daily closing prices in US Dollars over three months, with 20-day and 50-day moving averages. The metal has still fallen over three and six months, making the renewed fund demand notable against a volatile recent path.
ERUK market data put gold's one-year gain near 33%, but its 2026 advance at only about 2.5%.
That contrast leaves long-term holders with substantial gains while showing why a renewed private-fund bid can matter after months of uneven momentum.
BofA's flow data corroborate the shift.
“Gold: $6.3bn inflow, biggest since Jan '26,” the bank reported, adding that precious-metals funds had received inflows for six consecutive weeks.
In the same weekly cross-asset tally, cash drew $25.4bn, bonds $23.8bn, stocks $16.1bn and crypto $0.3bn.
Gold therefore remained smaller than the main cash, bond and equity channels, but its inflow stood out against both crypto and its own recent history.
BofA measures the latest weekly surge; Goldman's analysis instead shows how private fund activity is becoming more closely associated with price.
The current rally offers an immediate test of whether that association persists.
The gold price advance in August has taken it above $4,400, while Monday's move put the market close to the month's high.
The stronger correlation is backward-looking, so it records how fund activity and prices have moved together rather than forecasting either direction.
The change is one of market participation, not a new price target.
Another large inflow would support the case for a lasting private-sector return; a reversal would leave the $6.3bn week looking like an August outlier.
Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.
Gold (XAU/USD) price rises over 1% on Monday amid overall US Dollar (USD) weakness and lower US Treasury yields, following last week’s soft inflation data that reduced speculation of a hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed), . The XAU/USD trades at $4,422 after bouncing off daily lows of $4,367.
XAU/USD advances as softer inflation trims Fed bets despite rising yieldsThe US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the buck’s value against six currencies, is down 0.37% at 99.53, a tailwind for the precious metal. The US 10-year T-note yield, although rising over 2.5 basis points to 4.718%, caps Gold’s advance towards the $4,500 mark.
US Treasury yields at the long end of the curve, the 30-year, are reaching 2007 highs. Bloomberg reported that it reflects “investor angst over the surging national debt, a flood of long-dated bond sales and inflation that’s been stuck” above the Federal Reserve’s 2% for the past five years.
Last week’s consumer- and producer-side inflation triggered an investor reaction to trim Fed-hawkish bets. Fears that prices will not resume declines in the near term are fueled by the lack of progress in US-Iran talks in the Middle East.
Crude prices remain on the front seat, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) surging over 2.30% to $84.35 per barrel.
Mixed geopolitical signals suggest that Iran is shifting its policy from defensive to an offensive one. The Iranian Foreign Ministry stated that the “Islamabad agreement has not collapsed and the possibility of returning to it remains,” via Al Arabiya.
In the meantime, Investors see a nearly 69% chance that the Fed will hold rates unchanged, while the odds for the December meeting continue to price in a 66% chance of a 25-basis-point rate hike, according to Prime Terminal.
Source: Prime TerminalMarkets are now looking forward to the Fed's July meeting minutes, set to be released on Wednesday, to gain more insight into policymakers' monetary stance.
XAU/USD technical analysis: Gold surpasses the 100-day SMA, eyes on $4,500Gold price has reclaimed the $4,400 figure and is on its way to clearing the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,386, as part of a confluence of technical levels, which capped bullion’s price in the short term.
Worth noting that momentum is bullish, as depicted in the Relative Strength Index (RSI). This confirms that the uptrend is in place, though traders must clear the $4,500 milestone, followed by the 200-day SMA at $4,506. On further strength, the next resistance is the $4,600 mark.
For a bearish reversal, Gold needs to drop below the 100-day SMA, followed by the July 6 high at $4,202, followed by the 50-day SMA at $4,146 and $4,100.
Gold daily chart Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Gold (XAU/USD): Arc cycle analysisOverview: Based on Arc Cycle Analysis applied to the 30-minute chart, Gold (XAUUSD) is interacting with the 0.618 Resistance Arc within the current Arc Cycle. Bullish momentum has faded near this boundary, indicating that the upper Arc continues to cap upside expansion
Metric
Reading
Market Bias
Neutral-Bearish
Preferred Scenario
Potential Rejection / Decline Toward Next Support Arc
Primary Target Zone
4,415
Scenario Invalidation
Sustained close above $4,428
Current Arc Level
Resistance Arc (0.618)
Cycle Status
Testing Resistance Arc
Arc Integrity
Strong
Market outlookThe 0.618 Arc continues to act as a primary resistance boundary, capping upside expansion. Bullish attempts have stalled beneath the Resistance Arc 0.618, indicating that seller defense remains intact at this cyclical threshold.
If the 0.618 Resistance Arc holds firm, a corrective decline toward the 4,415 becomes the primary scenario.
Conversely, a sustained 30-minute candle close above 4,428 would invalidate the bearish setup, opening the path toward the outer Resistance Arc 0.786.
All things being equal, this is a market that I think continues to be very noisy and asks a lot of questions with the idea of the Middle East and all the conflict going on there, whether or not there’s going to be some type of resolution.
The interest rate markets, which are still elevated, and then of course what’s going on with the Federal Reserve. A lot of people are starting to question what we once thought about the Federal Reserve and its monetary policy trajectory, which is starting to move markets overall, not just here.
Bullish Flag, $4,500 Resistance, and the Golden Cross We’ll have to wait and see whether or not this breaks out to the upside, but the $4,500 level is definitely an area that I think a lot of people are watching to see where we go next. Ultimately, we are trying to decide that right now I think.
The recent technical analysis suggests that maybe we’re forming a bullish flag, and gold, at least from a sentiment standpoint, seems to be picking up from everything I’ve seen.
The 50-day EMA is trying to reach above the 200-day EMA, kicking off the so-called Golden Cross, which is a longer-term buy-and-hold signal for some longer-term investors.
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Gold (XAU/USD) maintains a bullish bias around $4,400, supported by a weaker US Dollar (USD) and fading expectations of further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve (Fed). However, geopolitical risks and tensions in energy prices continue to fuel inflation concerns, limiting the precious metal’s upside for now.
In the four-hour chart below, XAU/USD holds a constructive near-term bias as it trades comfortably above the 100-period simple moving average (SMA) at $4,205.68 and the 200-period SMA at $4,142.35, keeping the broader uptrend intact. The nearby horizontal support at $4,365.00 underpins the latest consolidation, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 56.32 has eased out of overbought territory and now points to moderately positive, but not stretched, momentum.
On the downside, initial support is seen at the recent floor around $4,365.00, with deeper demand emerging at the 100-period SMA near $4,205.68 and then the 200-period SMA around $4,142.35, where the broader bullish structure would be expected to reassert if tested. On the topside, a break above the horizontal resistance at $4,450.00 would open the way for renewed gains, as the absence of closer overhead technical barriers suggests that a clear move through this cap could accelerate bullish pressure.
In the one-hour chart below, XAU/USD is also holding a constructive near-term bias as price remains above the 100-period simple moving average (SMA) at $4,382.90 and the 200-period SMA at $4,324.87. This positioning suggests dips are still being bought, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 56 keeps a mildly bullish tone without yet signaling overbought conditions.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Gold continues to trade close to multi-month highs following its recent advance, which was supported by the latest US inflation data. July’s CPI broadly matched market expectations, reducing the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September. Lower expectations for further monetary tightening remain supportive for gold, as elevated interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding asset. According to CNBC, some investors have begun taking profits after the rally. Over the coming weeks, expectations surrounding the Fed’s interest-rate path are likely to remain one of the main drivers of the precious metal.
Technical Analysis of Gold
The four-hour XAU/USD chart shows a sustained uptrend that lifted the price towards the red resistance level at $4,450. An ascending trendline developed during the rally, but on 13 August the price broke below it on increased volume. The subsequent decline established a green support area around $4,312.
Following a rebound, gold returned to the dense area of the current market profile and is now trading between the Point of Control (POC) at $4,397 and the lower boundary of the profile at $4,346. If selling pressure builds, the $4,312 support zone could become increasingly significant.
A continuation of the upward move would bring the price into a relatively strong cluster of technical levels. The first obstacles are the POC at $4,397 and the upper boundary of the profile at $4,415. Beyond these levels, attention would shift towards the trend high around $4,450.
The RSI + MAs indicator currently shows readings of 52, 53 and 58. The oscillator and fast moving average have moved back into the neutral zone, while the slower moving average is following the same direction.
Key Takeaways
The main driver for gold remains the market’s expectations for the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate path. A further decline in expectations for rate hikes could continue to support buyers, while more hawkish signals from the central bank could increase selling pressure as the market undergoes a post-rally correction.
In the short term, gold is also likely to remain sensitive to movements in the US dollar and Treasury yields, both of which can significantly influence demand for the precious metal.
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Gold (XAU/USD) is holding its recovery as weaker US economic signals support the current outlook. Softer retail sales, weaker consumer confidence, and easing inflation signals have reduced expectations for tighter Federal Reserve policy and limited support for the US Dollar. At the same time, tensions in the Middle East are supporting demand for defensive assets. These factors are helping gold maintain its strength and could support further gains.
Gold holds momentum as weaker US data supports recoveryGold is holding near the $4,400 area after extending its recovery from lower levels. The precious metal continues to find support from weaker US economic signals and lower expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike. US retail sales fell 0.6% in July, marking the first decline in nine months. Core retail sales also declined. The data pointed to softer consumer spending and reduced expectations that the Fed will tighten policy in September. Recent inflation data also showed some moderation. These developments have reduced support for the US Dollar and helped gold maintain its recovery.
Consumer confidence added another sign of weakness. The University of Michigan preliminary Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 51.0 in August from 55.2 in July. Markets had expected a reading of 54.5. The decline suggests that households have become more cautious about economic conditions. The Fed kept its target range at 3.50%–3.75% at its July meeting, although three policymakers preferred a quarter-point increase. Markets will now focus on the July meeting minutes, scheduled for release on August 19, for more information about the policy debate.
Middle East developments remain another important factor for gold. US-Iran peace efforts have made little progress, while traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely restricted. The situation became more uncertain after attacks on vessels and fresh US warnings of additional economic pressure on Iran. These developments keep geopolitical risks elevated and support demand for defensive assets.
Gold maintains strength after breaking key horizontal resistanceThe gold chart below shows multiple rounded bases developing beneath horizontal resistance. These formations reflect repeated periods of stabilization following earlier declines. As the bases developed, gold gradually built strength beneath resistance before eventually breaking above the dashed line. This move completed the pattern and opened the way for further gains.
Price has remained above the former resistance since the breakout. The latest decline brought gold back toward this area before it turned upward again. This reaction suggests that the former resistance is now providing support and remains an important part of the current setup.
Gold is now trading near $4,390 and continues to hold comfortably above the dashed line. Continued strength from the current area could support further gains, while a move below the former resistance would weaken the setup and increase the risk of another decline. For now, the reaction from support keeps the outlook positive.
Gold outlook: Weak US data and Fed expectations support gainsGold continues to hold its recovery as weaker US economic data reduces expectations for tighter Federal Reserve policy. Middle East tensions are also supporting demand for defensive assets. At the same time, gold remains above the former resistance after reacting positively from this key level. Continued strength above this area could support further gains. A move below support would weaken the current outlook and increase the risk of another decline.
Gold prices rose in Philippines on Monday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 8,689.83 Philippine Pesos (PHP) per gram, up compared with the PHP 8,658.60 it cost on Friday.
The price for Gold increased to PHP 101,352.50 per tola from PHP 100,992.20 per tola on Friday.
Unit measure
Gold Price in PHP
1 Gram
8,689.83
10 Grams
86,894.02
Tola
101,352.50
Troy Ounce
270,284.30
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Philippines by adapting international prices (USD/PHP) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices rose in United Arab Emirates on Monday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 519.03 United Arab Emirates Dirhams (AED) per gram, up compared with the AED 516.83 it cost on Friday.
The price for Gold increased to AED 6,053.85 per tola from AED 6,028.25 per tola on Friday.
Unit measure
Gold Price in AED
1 Gram
519.03
10 Grams
5,190.35
Tola
6,053.85
Troy Ounce
16,143.56
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in United Arab Emirates by adapting international prices (USD/AED) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices rose in Malaysia on Monday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 575.44 Malaysian Ringgits (MYR) per gram, up compared with the MYR 573.84 it cost on Friday.
The price for Gold increased to MYR 6,711.83 per tola from MYR 6,693.20 per tola on friday.
Unit measure
Gold Price in MYR
1 Gram
575.44
10 Grams
5,754.41
Tola
6,711.83
Troy Ounce
17,898.18
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Malaysia by adapting international prices (USD/MYR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold (XAU/USD) builds on Friday's bounce from the $4,300 neighborhood, or a one-week low, and gains some follow-through positive traction at the start of a new week. The commodity, however, struggles to capitalize on the momentum beyond the $4,400 mark and remains below its highest level since June 5, touched on Friday, amid mixed fundamental cues.
Data released on Friday showed that US Retail Sales dropped 0.6% in July, marking the first fall in nine months and the biggest monthly decline since May last year. Adding to this, the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index dipped in August to 51 from 55.2 in the previous month. This comes on top of signs of cooling US inflation and further tempers expectations for an immediate interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve (Fed), which continues to undermine the US Dollar (USD) and lends support to the non-yielding bullion.
Investors, however, remain worried that volatile energy prices could complicate the inflation outlook and force the Fed to stick to a hawkish stance. Moreover, persistent geopolitical uncertainties help limit deeper losses for the safe-haven USD, capping the upside for the Gold price. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that the US is preparing to hit Iran with economic measures that have never been seen, as soon as this week. This, along with the US-Iran standoff, keeps the geopolitical risk premium in play and should support the buck.
In other developments, President Donald Trump said that he would soon declare the Strait of Hormuz a “territory of the United States.” Meanwhile, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said that the US must agree to Tehran's conditions in order for shipping to resume through the waterway and that there were no negotiations currently taking place. Apart from this, fresh Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries remain supportive of higher oil prices, keeping inflation fears and bets for at least one Fed rate hike in 2026 on the table.
According to CME Group's FedWatch Tool, traders are still pricing in around a 65% chance that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs by the end of this year. This, in turn, warrants some caution for USD bears and before positioning for any further appreciating move in the Gold price as traders await further cues about the Fed's future policy path. Hence, the focus will remain glued to the release of FOMC Minutes on Wednesday. Apart from this, the incoming geopolitical headlines might influence the USD and the precious metal.
XAU/USD daily chart
Technical AnalysisFrom a technical perspective, the recent repeated failures to find acceptance above the $4,400 mark, or the 50% retracement level of the April-June decline, warrant some caution for XAU/USD bulls. Moreover, the precious metal remains below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), keeping the broader tone capped despite the recent recovery.
Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 64.43 leans toward bullish momentum, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) stays in positive territory. Improving momentum indicators, however, only hint that buyers are attempting a rebound within a still bearish, resistance-heavy backdrop.
Nevertheless, sustained strength and acceptance above the $4,400 mark (50% retracement level) should allow the Gold price to test the 200-day SMA near $4,506 and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $4,509. Further barriers are seen at the 78.6% Fibo level at $4,666 and the cycle high zone at $4,865.
On the downside, initial support emerges at the 38.2% Fibo. retracement at $4,290, ahead of the 23.6% level at $4,154, while a deeper slide would expose the structural floor around the Fibonacci anchor near $3,935.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Fed FAQs
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates.
When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money.
When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions.
The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system.
It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
Hello, fellow traders. In this technical article, we’ll take a quick look at the Elliott Wave charts of Gold (XAUUSD), recently published in the members’ area of our website.
Recently, XAUUSD formed a 3-wave pullback after a rally, a textbook example of an Elliott Wave bullish sequence. Price completed a clear 3-wave move down from the peak and found support at the Equal Legs zone (buying area).In the following analysis, we explain the Elliott Wave pattern and the market outlook.
XAUUSD Elliott Wave 1 Hour Chart 08.13.2026
XAUUSD is forming a three-wave pullback from the recent highs. At the moment, the structure of the pullback looks incomplete, suggesting that more downside could be seen before the correction is completed. As our members know, the buying zone is identified by measuring the Equal Legs area using the Fibonacci extension tool. The ideal support area comes in at 4315.86–4261.32. From this zone, we expect buyers to step in and take control, pushing the price higher in at least a three-wave bounce, with the potential to extend toward new highs.
90% of traders fail because they don’t understand market patterns. Are you in the top 10%? Put your skills to the test with this advanced Elliott Wave challenge.
Reminder : Our member chat rooms are open 24/7 and provide ongoing expert guidance on market trends and Elliott Wave analysis. Members are encouraged to ask questions about market structure and technical setups at any time. You can learn more about Elliott Wave Patterns at our Free Elliott Wave Educational Web Page
XAUUSD Elliott Wave 1 Hour Chart 08.14.2026
GOLD made decline as expected. The commodity found buyers right at the Equal Legs zone, producing a solid reaction from that area. As a result, long positions taken from the Equal Legs zone are now risk-free. We expect XAUUSD to continue trading higher, with a break above the 3 red peak (4450) needed to confirm that the next leg up is in progress.
Important note: Our analysis is not based on Elliott Wave in isolation. We perform detailed higher-time-frame cycle analysis, which shows an incomplete market structure. This is one of the key drivers of price action, along with correlation analysis and broader market context.
We also teach our members in live analysis sessions how to identify incomplete bullish and bearish sequences. Even a 14-day trial, is enough to noticeably improve your trading analysis and forecasting approach.
The Next Opportunity Is Already Forming.
Every trading session creates new opportunities. Some traders recognize them early. Others only see them after the move has already happened.
The difference isn’t luck. It’s preparation.
At Elliott Wave Forecast, our analysts monitor 78 global markets every day, identifying potential Elliott Wave setups and helping traders develop a more structured approach to the markets.
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Gold price (XAU/USD) gains momentum to around $4,395 during the early Asian trading hours on Monday. The precious metal extends the rally as cooling US inflation data has dampened expectations for the US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike.
The US Census Bureau revealed on Friday that US Retail Sales declined by 0.6% MoM in July. This figure followed a rise of 0.2% in June and came in softer than the 0.1% expected. On an annual basis, Retail Sales increased 5.0% in July versus a rise of 6.8% (revised from 6.7%).
This report added to evidence that inflationary pressure is gradually easing after last week's Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) data. This, in turn, weighs on the US Dollar (USD) and underpins the USD-denominated commodity price.
Money markets have priced in nearly a 33.1% chance of a September Fed hike, according to the CME FedWatch tool. It’s worth noting that lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion, boosting its investment appeal.
On the other hand, persistent tensions in the Middle East might cap the upside for the yellow metal. Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi called on the US to “accept the reality of defeat and stop indulging in delusions” after US President Donald Trump suggested that he would soon declare the Strait of Hormuz a “territory of the United States.”
On Friday, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said that there were “no negotiations currently taking place between Tehran and Washington.” Araghchi added that the US must agree to Iran’s conditions in order for shipping to resume through the waterway.
Gold outlook stays constructive as Fed hike expectations fade and ETF demand returnsAnalysts at Commerzbank argue that the backdrop for bullion remains supportive, noting that, “as we expect the Fed not to raise interest rates, the gold price therefore still has further upside potential.” They caution that the path higher is unlikely to be smooth, pointing out that “the fact that this will not happen in a straight line is illustrated by the price fall since yesterday to USD 4,320 per troy ounce.” At the same time, Commerzbank highlights that “another positive factor for the price of gold is the renewed buying interest from ETF investors,” which they see as reinforcing the constructive medium-term outlook for the metal.
Technical Analysis: The positive tone of Gold remains intactIn the daily chart, XAU/USD holds just above the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) and comfortably over the 20-day Bollinger middle band near, keeping the near-term bias constructive while these layers of trend support remain intact. The Relative Strength Index (14) at 64.09 leans toward bullish but not yet overbought territory, suggesting buyers still have room to probe higher levels within the prevailing range.
On the topside, initial resistance is aligned with the upper Bollinger band at $4,480, where recent volatility extremes are likely to attract profit-taking. On the downside, the immediate floor is defined by the 100-day SMA at $4,385.85, with a deeper corrective cushion emerging around the Bollinger middle band at roughly $4,195; a break below that area would expose the lower band support near $3,905.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
The 200-day moving average will also deliver new challenges for traders. Some will treat it as resistance. Others may see it as a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside.
Although Spot Gold closed higher on Friday, the early session weakness confirmed the previous session’s potentially bearish closing price reversal top. Taking out Friday’s low at $4,311.04 will reaffirm this chart pattern. If it creates strong downside momentum, we could see a 2 to 3 day break into a key 50% to 61.8% zone at $4,195.96 to $4,136.05. Inside this zone is the 50-day moving average at $4,146.45.
What to Watch
Gold closed the week with the rate-relief trade intact and the dollar finally confirming what the bond market had been saying since Wednesday. September hike odds at 31% are the lowest they have been since the payrolls report started the repricing. The August employment and inflation data arrive before the September meeting, and the Hormuz blockade threat means the energy risk sits behind every forward-looking number the Fed will see. Gold gained on a day when yields rose. That tells you the dollar and the hike odds are driving this market right now, not the yield curve.
The trend is up on the swing chart with last week’s high at $4,449.83 as the first test and the 200-day moving average at $4,503.24 above it. Friday’s early weakness confirmed Thursday’s closing price reversal top, which means a break below $4,311.04 early next week reopens the downside toward the 50-day moving average at $4,146.45. The close above Thursday’s low kept buyers in control heading into the weekend, but the reversal pattern is live until the market takes out the high.
If you’d like to know more about how to Spot Gold (XAUUSD), please visit our educational area.
The Gold price has already recovered sharply in August, but UBS's forecast path points beyond the rebound, with bullion reaching $5,000 next March and $5,200 by June. The Gold price (XAU/USD) closed the week around $4,376 after a powerful August rebound that has taken bullion back towards the upper end of its recent range.
Gold has gained 8.3% so far this month, recovering from an August low near $4,024 and reaching as high as $4,443.
UBS is looking considerably further ahead.
Its latest global forecasts put gold at $4,400 in September 2026, followed by $4,600 in December, $5,000 in March 2027 and $5,200 by June 2027.
The shape of that forecast is as important as the final number.
At current prices, UBS's September target offers little immediate upside.
The bank is effectively allowing for gold to consolidate around present levels before another leg higher develops later in the forecast period.
Image: Gold price in USD on month chart Gold has climbed almost 8% over the past month, moving from below $4,000 at the July low to around $4,376.
The heavier lifting begins towards year-end.
A move to $4,600 in December would take gold clearly above its current August trading range, while the jump to $5,000 next March would put bullion back into territory last seen during the extraordinary swings earlier in 2026.
The $5,200 June forecast is more striking still.
Gold has already traded above that level this year, reaching a 2026 high close to $5,594 in January, but much of that advance was subsequently unwound.
By June, prices had fallen below $4,000 before stabilising and beginning the latest recovery.
Gold Outlook: UBS Sees the Recovery Extending Into 2027 Image: Gold price in USD yar-to-date chart Gold remains far below its January peak despite the August recovery, illustrating how much volatility has accompanied this year's broader repricing.
That distinction matters when interpreting UBS's $5,200 call.
The forecast does not require gold to make unprecedented new highs from here.
It instead assumes that the deep correction from the first-quarter peak eventually gives way to a renewed climb back towards the upper part of this year's range.
The current price around $4,376 is only modestly above where gold began 2026, despite enormous moves in between.
The year-to-date chart has been anything but a straight-line bull market.
UBS's forecast is similarly not about an immediate surge.
September is essentially flat from here. December brings a more meaningful rise.
The stronger bullish conviction appears in 2027, when the bank sees gold breaking $5,000 again and reaching $5,200 by June.
After the volatility of 2026, that is a bullish forecast with patience built into it.
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The U.S dollar debasement trade is moving back to the centre of global markets and Gold may be its clearest beneficiary.
The Dollar Index has slipped below 100 while Treasury yields remain elevated, Washington finances enormous deficits and traders reassess America’s debt trajectory. For Gold bulls, the convergence is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore.
“The debasement trade does not begin when the dollar collapses,” says Lars Hansen, Head of Research at The Gold & Silver Club. “It begins when traders start questioning what each future dollar will actually be worth in real terms.”
Gold has remained resilient despite high U.S borrowing costs. Normally, elevated real yields would pressure bullion. Instead, traders are focusing on fiscal deterioration, currency dilution and policy uncertainty.
“When Gold stays this strong against restrictive financial conditions, the message matters,” Hansen says. “Traders are looking beyond nominal rates and focusing on purchasing power of the currency itself.”
The latest Treasury numbers sharpen that argument. The U.S posted a record $432 billion July budget deficit, taking the fiscal-year shortfall to $1.80 trillion. Even after adjusting for payment-timing distortions, July’s deficit was $333 billion, 18% greater than a year earlier.
Net interest expenses have risen 11% this fiscal year and have officially surpassed both National Defence and Medicare spending. In other words, the U.S government now spends more money just on interest than it does to fund the entire U.S Military or to provide healthcare for seniors.
“The danger is not simply the size of the debt,” Hansen says. “It is the rising cost of carrying it. The more revenue absorbed by interest, the stronger the pressure for lower financing costs.”
That is where fiscal stress can become a currency story and ultimately a Gold story.
Attempts to strengthen the yen have struggled to remove the incentive to borrow cheaply in Japan and deploy capital into higher-yielding dollar assets. The yen has already weakened again towards ¥160 despite recent US-Japan intervention.
“Washington wants lower borrowing costs, strong Treasury demand and currency stability,” Hansen says. “Achieving all three simultaneously is becoming difficult.”
If U.S rates eventually fall while deficits remain enormous, hard assets could become attractive.
Gold carries no sovereign credit risk, cannot be printed to finance deficits and sits outside the banking system’s liability structure.
Over the past 15 years, The Gold & Silver Club has built a reputation as one of the industry’s most accurate forecasters of major Gold price trends, documented across leading financial publications and institutional research reports. Its proprietary models have consistently pinpointed major turning points in Gold and Silver, earning GSC recognition among institutional investors and private wealth clients alike.
“This is where hesitation becomes expensive,” Hansen says.
For traders, the next technical trigger may now be as important as the macro story. A sustained break above $4,400 would reassert the uptrend just as the Dollar Index threatens deeper support below 100. Gold is already trading within striking distance of that threshold.
“If Gold clears $4,400 while the dollar keeps weakening, capital could move very quickly,” Hansen says. “By the time the breakout looks obvious, traders may already be chasing significantly higher prices.”
The ingredients of a major repricing are falling into place: dollar weakness, fiscal deterioration and Gold sitting beneath a potentially decisive breakout.
For traders still on the side-lines, the choice is becoming urgent. Position before the debasement trade becomes consensus. If Gold confirms its next leg higher, today’s prices may soon look like the opportunity traders wish they had taken.
As Hansen concludes: “Markets reward conviction. Hesitation is punished.” The only question now is whether traders participate – or watch the next major Gold rally unfold without them.
Where are prices heading next? Watch The Commodity Report now, for my latest price forecasts and predictions:
California State Teachers Retirement System increased its holdings in shares of Gold.com Inc. (NYSE: GOLD) by 69.2% during the first quarter, according to its most recent disclosure with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The firm owned 29,031 shares of the company's stock after acquiring an additional 11,871 shares during the period. California
RBC's price assumptions put gold at an average $5,250 an ounce in 2027 and $5,500 in 2028, while JPMorgan sees evidence that buyers are returning after the market established support near $4,000.
The Gold price in US Dollars has begun to recover from its mid-year correction, and two bank research frameworks point to a market that is consolidating rather than ending its longer-term advance.
Latest gold market data: XAU/USD traded at $4,351.05 an ounce at 11:56 BST on 14 August 2026, down 0.17% on the day but 7.34% higher over one month.
Gold remained 6.43% lower over three months and 13.48% lower over six months, yet it was still 30.65% above its level a year earlier.
Gold price performance over one month to 14 August 2026.
RBC's Gold Standard comparable tables assume an average $4,732 for 2026, rising to $5,250 in 2027 and $5,500 in 2028.
The bank's long-term assumption is lower at $4,000, giving the forecast a pronounced medium-term peak rather than an indefinitely rising line.
From current spot, the 2027 average is roughly 21% higher and the 2028 assumption about 26% higher.
These are annual averages used in company valuation work, not year-end targets, so gold would not need to finish either year at precisely those levels.
JPMorgan sees buyers returning above $4,000
JPMorgan's volatility research supplies the market mechanism behind the upside case.
“The fundamental view remains on the upside in the long term, as we continue to see strong inflows from central banks with accelerated buying on the dip,” the bank said.
That official-sector thesis has support beyond the research note: World Gold Council data show reported central-bank reserves rising by a net 41 tonnes in May.
JPMorgan also sees a change in investor behaviour after July's narrow trading range.
“As gold prices are finding the floor at 4000 and trading within a tight 5% range over the whole of July, the first signs of buyers winning over sellers are starting to show,” it said.
Retail demand is part of that turn.
“We are starting to see retail investors warming up to gold again,” JPMorgan said, pointing to renewed call-option interest in the GLD exchange-traded fund.
Gold price performance in 2026 to 14 August.
The two banks are not making identical calls.
RBC supplies a multi-year price deck, while JPMorgan identifies positioning and volatility signals around a $4,000 support area.
Together they describe a bullish medium-term case with real drawdown risk: the long-run floor is well below RBC's projected 2028 peak, but central-bank buying and returning investor demand can keep the recovery alive before that normalisation arrives.
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Market news from the European morning session - 14 August 2026
Headlines:
Dollar nudges lower on the day amid mixed market moodBitcoin loses key $64,000 level: The important support levels BTC must hold nextBOJ reportedly set for a September rate hike, eyes faster pace of tighteningGerman wholesale prices bounce back in July as energy tax cut lapsesFrench inflation accelerates again in July, core prices move up as wellSwiss economy estimated to post quarterly growth of 1.5% in the second quarterChina new bank loans contract again in July, the second time this yearMarkets:
WTI crude oil up 0.5% to $81.64NZD leads, USD lags on the dayGold up 0.3% to $4,362S&P 500 futures up 0.1%, Nasdaq futures up 0.2%US 10-year yields up 0.3 bps to 4.645%Bitcoin down 0.8% to $62,829There's not all too much in it as we get into the final stretch of the week.
The market mood is fairly mixed, with the dollar sitting lower while oil prices and bond yields are just a touch higher on the day.
There are no fresh developments on the US-Iran conflict, with the Strait of Hormuz still in de facto closure after Iran threatened more ships again - this time being UAE oil vessels.
WTI crude sits higher by 0.5% to $81.64 and looks poised to end the week with gains well over 5%. Meanwhile, bond yields also nudged a little higher early on but is now moving back down a little. 10-year yields in the US are little changed now at 4.645% with the earlier high touching 4.665%.
Even so, the dollar is seen being offered in European morning trade. It was one-way traffic with the greenback losing ground across the board. EUR/USD is up 0.3% to 1.1567 in retesting the 100-day moving average once again. Meanwhile, USD/JPY is down 0.2% to close in on the 159.00 mark on the day.
In other markets, European indices are lightly changed for the most part while US futures are holding a marginal advance on the day. There's not a whole lot in it but Wall Street will be hoping to follow up from the record close in the S&P 500 yesterday.
Besides that, gold is up 0.3% to $4,362 after erasing early losses with the fall back earlier touching a low of $4,311.
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investingLive European session wrap: Dollar falls, gold rebounds amid mixed marketsThree reasons why BOJ rate hikes will not save the yenChina new bank loans contract again in July, the second time this yearEurozone Q2 GDP second estimate +0.4% vs +0.4% q/q prelimDollar nudges lower on the day amid mixed market moodSwiss economy estimated to post quarterly growth of 1.5% in the second quarterFrench inflation accelerates again in July, core prices move up as wellFX option expiries for 14 August 10am New York cutGerman wholesale prices bounce back in July as energy tax cut lapsesBOJ reportedly set for a September rate hike, eyes faster pace of tightening
Societe Generale strategists highlight that the South African Rand (ZAR) continues to outperform in CEEMEA, gaining about 2.4% versus the US Dollar (USD) in spot terms this month. USD/ZAR is close to breaking below 16.00 for the first time since February. Stronger Gold prices, dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) repricing, and robust foreign demand for South African Government Bonds are supporting the currency.
"The rand remains the region’s top performer this month (spot +2.4% vs USD, total return +2.7%), with USD/ZAR now within 1% of returning below the 16.00 for the first time since early February."
"The combination of firmer gold prices and dovish Fed repricing following the recent US NFP and CPI releases has provided a supportive backdrop for the risk proxy rand."
"Foreign investors purchased a net ZAR23.1bn of SAGBs in the first week of August, the strongest weekly inflow since January, underscoring robust demand for carry."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Gold prices fell in Philippines on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 8,536.51 Philippine Pesos (PHP) per gram, down compared with the PHP 8,586.51 it cost on Thursday.
The price for Gold decreased to PHP 99,568.21 per tola from PHP 100,151.40 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in PHP
1 Gram
8,536.51
10 Grams
85,365.12
Tola
99,568.21
Troy Ounce
265,509.90
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Philippines by adapting international prices (USD/PHP) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices fell in Saudi Arabia on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 521.93 Saudi Riyals (SAR) per gram, down compared with the SAR 525.07 it cost on Thursday.
The price for Gold decreased to SAR 6,087.84 per tola from SAR 6,124.37 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in SAR
1 Gram
521.93
10 Grams
5,219.43
Tola
6,087.84
Troy Ounce
16,233.99
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Saudi Arabia by adapting international prices (USD/SAR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices fell in United Arab Emirates on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 510.58 United Arab Emirates Dirhams (AED) per gram, down compared with the AED 513.66 it cost on Thursday.
The price for Gold decreased to AED 5,955.32 per tola from AED 5,991.25 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in AED
1 Gram
510.58
10 Grams
5,105.81
Tola
5,955.32
Troy Ounce
15,880.88
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in United Arab Emirates by adapting international prices (USD/AED) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices fell in Pakistan on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 38,626.61 Pakistani Rupees (PKR) per gram, down compared with the PKR 38,851.57 it cost on Thursday.
The price for Gold decreased to PKR 450,531.60 per tola from PKR 453,157.10 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in PKR
1 Gram
38,626.61
10 Grams
386,264.70
Tola
450,531.60
Troy Ounce
1,201,423.00
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Pakistan by adapting international prices (USD/PKR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices fell in Malaysia on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 568.41 Malaysian Ringgits (MYR) per gram, down compared with the MYR 571.47 it cost on Thursday.
The price for Gold decreased to MYR 6,629.88 per tola from MYR 6,665.50 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in MYR
1 Gram
568.41
10 Grams
5,684.15
Tola
6,629.88
Troy Ounce
17,679.71
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Malaysia by adapting international prices (USD/MYR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices fell in India on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 13,265.91 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, down compared with the INR 13,343.67 it cost on Thursday.
The price for Gold decreased to INR 154,733.00 per tola from INR 155,637.90 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in INR
1 Gram
13,265.91
10 Grams
132,658.70
Tola
154,733.00
Troy Ounce
412,633.90
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Throughout July, I had been noting the repeated failed attempts from gold bears to sustain a break below 4,000. And when a level won’t budge, the market has a tendency to eventually go the other way.
Last Tuesday, August 4, I outlined a case for a breakout, arguing that price action, options pricing and futures sentiment all hinted at quiet accumulation. Maybe I got lucky with the timing, but the breakout on August 5 was spectacular, to say the least, with gold rising 5% to mark its best day since February and its second-best day in ten years.
While I suspect gold bulls have more planned, price action on Thursday shows prices have wobbled at their cycle high, hinting at the first bump in the road.
View related analysis:
Gold Price Outlook: Can Quiet Accumulation Trigger a Breakout? ASX 200 Outlook: Potential Bull Flag Forms Beneath Record Highs US Dollar Bounce Looks Vulnerable, EUR/USD Respects Resistance for Now Japanese Yen Outlook: US CPI, Intervention Risks Put USD/JPY Bulls on Notice FX Futures Positioning: US Dollar Longs Plunged, Yen Shorts Slashed Gold Wobbles, but ‘Dip’ Mentality Could Remain The daily chart shows a solid rally from 4,000 support, although resistance was met around a prior weekly VPOC (volume point of control), just below 4,500. A bearish outside day engulfed Tuesday’s small doji and Wednesday’s small bullish candle, but so far, support has held around 4,400, close to the weekly VPOC at 4,404.
A break beneath this area would bring the 200-day EMA into focus near 4,300, along with the lower end of the recent trading range. If we see bears take full control, the next level they could potentially target is around 4,200, near the recent range lows.
However, given the strength of the bullish range expansion after a prolonged period of consolidation above 4,000, my bias remains for a move towards 4,700, with 4,600 likely to provide interim resistance along the way should the rally continue. Moreover, futures and options sentiment also appears supportive of a “buy the dip” mentality among gold bulls, some of whom may be frustrated at having missed the initial burst higher.
Source: COMEX, TradingView
Gold Price Outlook: Futures Positioning and Options Signals Gold Futures (GC) Positioning | COT Report Net-long exposure has continued to trend higher to gold futures, among large speculators and managed funds managers. Recent data from the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report shows funds had a net-long exposure of 131k contracts, their most bullish level in more than six months. Large specs pushed their net-long exposure to a 6-month high just shy of 200k. While gross-longs have been trending gradually higher, it is the collapse of short bets that helped propel net-longs in recent weeks. And I suspect that will continue to be a supporting feature for higher gold prices, with a lack of bearish interest for now.
This content was created by an affiliate of FOREX.com and represents the views and opinions of the author/speakers, not the views and opinions of FOREX.com, StoneX Group Inc., or its subsidiaries. The content has not been independently reviewed by FOREX.com.
Gold Options Positioning Signals Cautious Bullishness Two of the three risk reversals I track had flipped into positive territory last week, for the first time since mid-April. This showed that demand for calls outnumbers demand for puts. But we also saw the risk reversals accelerate from low levels ahead of the breakout to show options traders quickly moving away from downside protection relative to bullish bets. The fact it has dipped to negative territory this week is not enough to call for a major swing high in my books, but it does back up the potential for a minor pullback over the near term
Gold (XAU/USD) price declines on Thursday as the US Dollar (USD) trims some of its earlier losses, as economic data in the US showed that the disinflation process continues, amid a moderately softening jobs market. At the time of writing, the XAU/USD pair trades at $4,365, down 1%, after reaching a daily high of $4,449.
XAU/USD retreats as traders digest softer US inflation and Fed splitStrangely, the yellow metal fails to capitalize on early US Dollar weakness, which so far has trimmed its earlier losses and is almost flat, according to the US Dollar Index (DXY). The DXY, which tracks the performance of the buck versus six currencies, trades almost flat around the 100.00 milestone.
US Treasury yields edged lower as market participants trimmed their Federal Reserve (Fed) hawkish bets following the release of July’s Producer Price Index (PPI) data. The US 10-year Treasury yield is down four basis points at 4.647%.
US PPI edged lower from 5.5% to 4.7% YoY. The Core PPI, which excludes food and energy, expanded 4.2% YoY as expected, down from 4.7% registered in June. At the same time, the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits rose from 200K to 209K in the week ending August 8, exceeding forecasts for a 202K print.
Money markets had adjusted their expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rates. Now traders see a 40% chance of a 25-basis-point rate hike, while the odds of a hold have increased to 60%. Meanwhile, Federal Reserve officials remained split, with a camp seeking a rate increase and others, led by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, calling for rates to remain steady.
Cleveland Fed Beth Hammack said the US should raise rates to curb growth and inflation. She noted businesses are eager to borrow for investment in "growth opportunities,” but a rapid economic reacceleration could hinder disinflation.
Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said it's an “open question” if a rate hike is needed to meet inflation targets, noting inflationary pressures are from shocks that “should pass.”
On Friday, the US economic docket will feature the release of July Retail Sales and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment.
XAU/USD price forecast: Gold retreats below $4,400, eyes on 50-day SMAGold consolidates below the $4,400 threshold as traders rush to book profits, following the release of US data. Bullish momentum is fading, as indicated by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which is edging towards its 50-neutral level, suggesting buyers are losing steam.
Worth noting that XAU/USD has fallen to new three-day lows of $4,351, which could exacerbate a move lower. The next area of interest would be $4,300. Once breached, the next stop is the July 6 high at $4,202. Once cleared, the next key support levels are the 50-day SMA at $4,145 and $4,100.
On the other hand, if the $4,400 mark is reclaimed, this paves the way to test the $4,450 psychological level. Breaking this could lead to the 200-day SMA at the $4,500 mark.
Gold daily chart
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Gold futures rally to $4,447, pushing above both EMAs after clearing the $4,000–$4,300 consolidation zone. Source: TradingView The gold market initially tried to rally during the trading session on Thursday, but it is struggling a little bit. As I’ve been saying for a few days now, sooner or later gravity comes back into the picture, and that might be what we’re seeing here: a simple return to a little bit of normalcy after a shot higher. Whether or not gold pulls back significantly remains to be seen, but one could see a move to the 200-day EMA and still think that is relatively normal.
To the upside, we have the $4,500 level, which has offered a bit of resistance recently, and then we have the $4,600 level, which has been structurally important. I’ll be watching both of those levels for potential targets for bulls. If we pull back from here, a bounce from the 200-day EMA would be a significant technical setup that will, more likely than not, capture the attention of a lot of traders as it is such a widely followed indicator.
It's on to Jackson Hole next..Dollar stays more muted so far today amid lack of any post-CPI momentumGold fails to find that additional spark from US inflation dataUK Q2 preliminary GDP +0.4% vs +0.4% q/q expectedUK economy posts unexpected growth in June on stronger services sector showingSpain inflation nudges higher in July as both headline and core prices push upMarkets:
WTI crude oil down 2% to $81.58CHF leads, NZD lags on the dayEuropean equities higher; S&P 500 futures up 0.2%Gold down 0.4% to $4,388US 10-year yields down 1.7 bps to 4.675%Bitcoin down 0.2% to $63,387The US CPI report for July was rather benign and that's not giving market players all too much to work with as we get into the second half of the week.
The dollar recoverd from overnight lows late yesterday before trading rather sideways in European morning trade today. EUR/USD is keeping in a narrow range, up just 0.1% to 1.1535. Meanwhile, USD/JPY remains little changed at around 159.20-30 levels for the most part.
Looking to geopolitical developments, the US-Iran conflict continues to see little progress in general. As such, the broader market mood remains tentative at best even if oil prices are trading down today. WTI crude is lower by 2% to $81.58 currently. Meanwhile, bond yields are also off the highs with 10-year Treasury yields down 1.7 bps to 4.675% today.
Still, it's all not hinting at much besides a bit of a breather in the market mood in awaiting further headlines and developments.
Elsewhere, equities remain steady with some modest gains in European stocks while US futures are pushing a little higher on the day. Wall Street was able to keep light gains after the inflation data yesterday and are seen just a little higher today as well - at least for now.
Besides that, gold is falling off from its Asia highs and is down 0.4% to $4,388 as buyers continue to try and push for a firmer break above the $4,400 mark this week. But in the absence of a notable spark, we're not quite there yet.
It's on to the US weekly jobless claims and PPI data up next.
Gold price edged lower from new 9-week high in early Thursday trading as positive impact from lower inflation in July started to fade while investors focus on US Producer Price Index data (due later today) which would provide more details about the Fed’s policy outlook.
Recent strong acceleration higher started to show signs of fatigue after a triple failure to register daily close above cracked Fibo barrier at $4416 (50% retracement of $4889/$3942 bear-leg), with stretched daily studies contributing to scenario.
On the other hand, near-term action holds above the top of daily Ichimoku cloud ($4358) for the third consecutive day that keeps bulls intact for renewed attacks.
Firm break of $4416 pivot to generate initial signal of bullish continuation and expose next targets at $4501 (200DMA) and $4527 (Fibo 61.8%).
Conversely, violation of cloud top would risk further easing, with extended dips to find firm ground at $4260 zone (Fibo 38.2% of $3960/$4449 / rising 10DMA) to mark a heathy correction before bulls regain control.
US PPI is expected to ease significantly in July that may provide fresh impetus to the metal’s price (US July PPI 4.9% f/c vs June 5.5%; Core July 4.2% f/c vs June 4.7%) on release at or below expectations.
The information contained in this document was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed herein are in good faith, but are subject to change without notice. No liability accepted whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this document.
XAU/USDGold price edged lower from new 9-week high in early Thursday trading as positive impact from lower inflation in July started to fade while investors focus on US Producer Price Index data (due later today) which would provide more details about the Fed’s policy outlook.
Recent strong acceleration higher started to show signs of fatigue after a triple failure to register daily close above cracked Fibo barrier at $4416 (50% retracement of $4889/$3942 bear-leg), with stretched daily studies contributing to scenario.
On the other hand, near-term action holds above the top of daily Ichimoku cloud ($4358) for the third consecutive day that keeps bulls intact for renewed attacks.
Firm break of $4416 pivot to generate initial signal of bullish continuation and expose next targets at $4501 (200DMA) and $4527 (Fibo 61.8%).
Conversely, violation of cloud top would risk further easing, with extended dips to find firm ground at $4260 zone (Fibo 38.2% of $3960/$4449 / rising 10DMA) to mark a heathy correction before bulls regain control.
US PPI is expected to ease significantly in July that may provide fresh impetus to the metal’s price (US July PPI 4.9% f/c vs June 5.5%; Core July 4.2% f/c vs June 4.7%) on release at or below expectations.
TD Securities’ Bart Melek notes Gold extended gains after the July Consumer Price Index (CPI) matched expectations, reinforcing a dovish narrative around Fed Chair Warsh. With prices near $4,434/oz and resistance just below $4,500/oz, Melek sees Gold staying near the upper end of a higher trading range. However, he argues it is still premature to call for a breakout toward $5,000/oz.
Fed path keeps gold contained"With upside momentum driving prices to $4,434/oz and CTA buy triggers sitting near $4,468/ oz, the yellow metal may soon challenge resistance just below $4,500/oz."
"A decisive move above that level would likely require stronger confirmation that the Fed will not raise rates this year."
"As a result, gold will likely remain near the upper end of its current trading range, which has shifted meaningfully higher since July, though it is still too early to call for a breakout toward $5,000/oz."
"Until then, if it happens at all, the gold market should stay in the upper bound of the recent higher trading range."
"If no new inflation pressures materialize, gold is off to the races and a 5-handle is a very real possibility."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Gold prices fell in Philippines on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 8,662.15 Philippine Pesos (PHP) per gram, down compared with the PHP 8,682.63 it cost on Wednesday.
The price for Gold decreased to PHP 101,033.60 per tola from PHP 101,272.50 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in PHP
1 Gram
8,662.15
10 Grams
86,621.59
Tola
101,033.60
Troy Ounce
269,423.10
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Philippines by adapting international prices (USD/PHP) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices fell in Saudi Arabia on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 530.57 Saudi Riyals (SAR) per gram, down compared with the SAR 532.22 it cost on Wednesday.
The price for Gold decreased to SAR 6,188.48 per tola from SAR 6,207.66 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in SAR
1 Gram
530.57
10 Grams
5,305.73
Tola
6,188.48
Troy Ounce
16,503.55
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Saudi Arabia by adapting international prices (USD/SAR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices fell in United Arab Emirates on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 519.20 United Arab Emirates Dirhams (AED) per gram, down compared with the AED 520.58 it cost on Wednesday.
The price for Gold decreased to AED 6,055.84 per tola from AED 6,071.92 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in AED
1 Gram
519.20
10 Grams
5,191.99
Tola
6,055.84
Troy Ounce
16,148.51
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in United Arab Emirates by adapting international prices (USD/AED) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices fell in Pakistan on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 39,279.89 Pakistani Rupees (PKR) per gram, down compared with the PKR 39,392.88 it cost on Wednesday.
The price for Gold decreased to PKR 458,160.80 per tola from PKR 459,470.80 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in PKR
1 Gram
39,279.89
10 Grams
392,806.90
Tola
458,160.80
Troy Ounce
1,221,742.00
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Pakistan by adapting international prices (USD/PKR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices fell in Malaysia on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 578.10 Malaysian Ringgits (MYR) per gram, down compared with the MYR 579.45 it cost on Wednesday.
The price for Gold decreased to MYR 6,742.87 per tola from MYR 6,758.55 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in MYR
1 Gram
578.10
10 Grams
5,780.89
Tola
6,742.87
Troy Ounce
17,981.09
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Malaysia by adapting international prices (USD/MYR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices fell in India on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 13,485.65 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, down compared with the INR 13,516.60 it cost on Wednesday.
The price for Gold decreased to INR 157,303.50 per tola from INR 157,655.00 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in INR
1 Gram
13,485.65
10 Grams
134,862.00
Tola
157,303.50
Troy Ounce
419,454.80
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold price (XAU/USD) declines to around $4,400 during the early Asian session on Thursday, pressured by escalating geopolitical tensions between the United States (US) and Iran. However, the potential downside for the precious metal might be limited as a tame reading of US inflation eased pressure on the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to raise interest rates as soon as next month.
A senior Iranian official said that Washington and Tehran remain at loggerheads over efforts to agree a permanent end to the war in the Gulf, adding that there had been no progress in talks to revive the interim deal agreed in June and define a time frame to implement it.
Renewed tensions in the Middle East and the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz weigh on the yellow metal as it raises oil-driven inflation fears. “With the Strait of Hormuz still shut, upside inflation risks will remain top of mind for the foreseeable future,” said Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management.
The latest US July Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation moderated across a range of goods and services, cooling September Fed rate hike expectations. This, in turn, could help limit gold’s losses. Data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Wednesday showed that the CPI increased 3.4% YoY in July, versus 3.5% prior. Excluding food and energy, the so-called core CPI increased 2.5% YoY in July, compared to 2.6% in June. Both readings came in line with expectations.
Interest-rate swaps are now pricing in nearly a 40.1% odds of a Fed hike in September, though the odds on an October move fell to about 60% from 75% a day earlier, with the next increase fully priced for December, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
Gold upside persists as US CPI fails to revive Fed hike betsAccording to TD Securities, “precious metals maintain upside” as the latest US CPI release “did little to reignite the Fed hike pricing.” The bank notes that “recent price action highlights the gold market is increasingly not expecting hikes,” underscoring a supportive backdrop for bullion even as investors reassess the policy outlook in light of softer inflation dynamics.
Technical Analysis: Gold keeps a bullish vibe in the near term
In the daily chart, XAU/USD holds a bullish near-term bias as it extends above the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) and remains comfortably over the Bollinger Bands’ 20-day middle line, suggesting a well-supported uptrend structure. Price is now pressing the upper Bollinger band, while the Relative Strength Index (14) at 67.51 flirts with overbought territory, hinting that the latest advance is strong but increasingly stretched.
On the topside, immediate resistance is defined by the Bollinger upper band at $4,410, where a sustained break would open the way to further gains. On the downside, initial support is seen near the current area, with the 100-day SMA at $4,390 acting as the first meaningful floor, ahead of the Bollinger middle band at $4,140; a deeper pullback toward the lower band at $3,865 would only come into focus if the bullish structure starts to unwind.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
, /PRNewswire/ -- Mayfair Gold Corp. ("Mayfair", "Mayfair Gold", or the "Company") (TSXV: MFG) (NYSE American: MINE) is pleased to report its operating and financial results for the quarter ended June 30, 2026. The full version of the financial statements and accompanying management's discussion and analysis can be viewed on the Company's website at www.mayfairgold.ca or under the Company's profiles on SEDAR+ at www.sedarplus.ca and EDGAR at www.sec.gov. For a detailed update on project work completed during the quarter, refer to the news release issued July 23, 2026 "Mayfair Gold Provides Q2 Update on Fenn-Gib Project Advancement and Derisking Activities".
About Mayfair Gold
Mayfair Gold is a Canadian development-stage gold company focused on advancing the 100% controlled Fenn-Gib Project in the Timmins region of Northern Ontario. Fenn-Gib hosts a 4.3 million ounce indicated mineral resource of gold (181.3Mt at an average grade of 0.74 g/t) and the expected strategy outlined in the 2026 Pre-Feasibility Study (the "PFS")1 is to develop the project under the provincial permitting process, targeting the higher-grade 1 million ounce probable mineral reserve (25.1Mt at an average grade of 1.29g/t) sitting near-surface, highlighting the optionality and scalability provided by the deposit. The PFS also outlines the potential to develop Fenn-Gib into a new Canadian gold producer, with initial development capital of C$450 million, a base-case payback period of 2.7 years, and cumulative free cash flow2 of US$896 million over the first six years of production based on a US$3,100/oz gold price. The Company is advancing permitting activities, detailed engineering, and stakeholder engagement with the goal of starting construction in 2028 with initial production in 2030. The company also remains focused on exploration around the broader land package with the goal of enhancing mineral resource scale and growth opportunities.
The content of this news release has been reviewed on behalf of the Company and approved by Drew Anwyll, P.Eng., Chief Executive Officer of Mayfair, a QP as defined in NI 43-101.
___________________________
1 Please refer to the technical report entitled "Fenn-Gib Gold Project NI 43-101 Technical Report and pre-Feasibility Study" dated effective December 19, 2025 available on SEDAR+ at www.sedarplus.ca for further details.
2 Free cash flow does not have a standardized meaning and may not be comparable to similar measures presented by other issuers, referred to as non-GAAP financial measures. As the Corporation is not in production, the Corporation does not have historical non-GAAP financial measures nor historical comparable measures under IFRS, and therefore the foregoing prospective non-GAAP financial measures may not be reconciled to the nearest comparable measures under IFRS.
Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking Information
This news release contains certain forward-looking information within the meaning of applicable Canadian securities legislation and forward-looking statements within the meaning of applicable United States securities legislation (collectively, "forward-looking information"). The use of the words "will" and "expected" and similar expressions is intended to identify forward-looking information. Forward-looking information in this news release includes, but is not limited to, the expected strategy to develop the project under the provincial permitting process, targeting the higher-grade 1-million-ounce mineral reserve, building and operating the Fenn-Gib Project, and all disclosure related to the PFS, including expected commencement of construction and production. Although Mayfair Gold believes that the expectations reflected in such forward-looking information is reasonable, readers are cautioned that actual results may vary from the forward-looking information. The Company has based the forward-looking information on the Company's current expectations and assumptions about future events. This information also involves known and unknown risks, uncertainties, and other factors that may cause actual results or events to differ materially from those anticipated in such forward-looking information, including the risks, uncertainties, and other factors identified in the annual information form and Form 40-F of the Company for the year ended December 31, 2025, available under the Company's profiles on SEDAR+ at www.sedarplus.ca and EDGAR at www.sec.gov, respectively. Furthermore, the forward-looking information contained in this news release is as at the date of this news release, and Mayfair does not undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any of this forward-looking information except as may be required by applicable securities laws.
Neither the TSX Venture Exchange ("TSXV") nor its Regulation Services Provider (as that term is defined in the policies of the TSXV) accepts responsibility for the adequacy or accuracy of this news release.
Gold.com (GOLD - Free Report) closed at $44.68 in the latest trading session, marking a +2.85% move from the prior day. The stock outperformed the S&P 500, which registered a daily gain of 0.26%. Elsewhere, the Dow saw a downswing of 0.04%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq appreciated by 0.54%.
The precious metals trading company's stock has climbed by 11.19% in the past month, exceeding the Finance sector's gain of 2.08% and the S&P 500's gain of 2.13%.
The investment community will be closely monitoring the performance of Gold.com in its forthcoming earnings report. On that day, Gold.com is projected to report earnings of $0.96 per share, which would represent year-over-year growth of 26.32%. Meanwhile, our latest consensus estimate is calling for revenue of $7.76 billion, up 209.04% from the prior-year quarter.
GOLD's full-year Zacks Consensus Estimates are calling for earnings of $5.31 per share and revenue of $28.27 billion. These results would represent year-over-year changes of +144.7% and +157.52%, respectively.
Any recent changes to analyst estimates for Gold.com should also be noted by investors. These revisions help to show the ever-changing nature of near-term business trends. Therefore, positive revisions in estimates convey analysts' confidence in the business performance and profit potential.
Our research shows that these estimate changes are directly correlated with near-term stock prices. To capitalize on this, we've crafted the Zacks Rank, a unique model that incorporates these estimate changes and offers a practical rating system.
The Zacks Rank system, spanning from #1 (Strong Buy) to #5 (Strong Sell), boasts an impressive track record of outperformance, audited externally, with #1 ranked stocks yielding an average annual return of +25% since 1988. Over the past month, the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate has remained steady. Gold.com presently features a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold).
Investors should also note Gold.com's current valuation metrics, including its Forward P/E ratio of 11.97. This valuation marks a premium compared to its industry average Forward P/E of 11.03.
The Financial - Miscellaneous Services industry is part of the Finance sector. With its current Zacks Industry Rank of 151, this industry ranks in the bottom 39% of all industries, numbering over 250.
The Zacks Industry Rank gauges the strength of our individual industry groups by measuring the average Zacks Rank of the individual stocks within the groups. Our research shows that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1.
Make sure to utilize Zacks.com to follow all of these stock-moving metrics, and more, in the coming trading sessions.
