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Gold Price Outlook: Gold's Longer-Term Buyers and Short-Term Traders Are Pulling Apart BofA's gold forecast allows for a weaker finish to 2026 before a 2027 recovery, while HSBC's demand case faces competition from yields and the Dollar. Bank of America expects gold's recovery to lose some momentum later in 2027, with $5,000 an ounce marking the strongest part of its quarterly forecasts.

Its projections put bullion at $4,000 in the fourth quarter of 2026 and $5,000 in the second and third quarters of 2027, before a 10% retreat in the final quarter.

At the time of writing, spot gold traded near $4,166 an ounce, down 0.12% on Tuesday, after losing 6.64% during September.

HSBC sees demand support despite higher yields HSBC Asset Management retains a positive bias towards gold over an investment horizon exceeding 12 months.

Its October assessment says: "The gold price has been resilient, supported by central-bank demand, investment inflows, and macroeconomic uncertainty. Momentum remains constructive despite intermittent volatility and shifting rate expectations. Geopolitical risks and reserve diversification should support prices, but elevated yields and a stronger US dollar remain risks".

Gold pays no interest, so higher bond returns raise the income investors forgo by holding it.

The US Treasury's 10-year yield stood at 5.24% on 9 October, illustrating the competition bullion still faces.

Goldman's trading desk noted on 9 October: "Even with US real rates at multi-decade highs, gold has held above $4,100/oz, reinforcing its appeal as a hedge against geopolitical risk and rising fiscal strain."

HSBC also expects the US currency to remain supported initially: "Near-term, the dollar is expected to be supported by the resilient US economy, Fed tightening, favourable rate differentials, and heightened geopolitical risk and safe-haven demand. On longer-term valuation measures, the dollar still looks expensive. Structural diversification away from the dollar remains a long-term theme".

A dearer Dollar makes bullion more expensive for buyers using other currencies, even when they want protection from geopolitical or fiscal risks.

Image: Gold price in USD 48-hour chart. Goldman's desk sees room for investors to rebuild exposure Goldman Sachs's desk also sees potential for renewed buying: investors following systematic strategies have already cut their exposure sharply.

Its latest US Equities Weekly Rundown says: "Gold showed resilience, rising 1.3% WoW as the FOMC rate-path outlook looks more stable and the UST market found modest relief following the 10-year and 30-year auctions. Despite a challenging macro backdrop, sustained central-bank buying and persistent ETF inflows continued to underpin prices".

Gold has weakened since the report's 9 October cutoff.

The World Gold Council's September review shows how uneven investor demand has been: "Yet September was unusual: despite the price decline, global gold ETFs recorded US$10bn (67t) of inflows across regions."

Futures selling can outweigh those purchases over shorter periods, the divergence examined in our recent UBS gold outlook.

Goldman's desk writes: "Investor positioning has reset meaningfully: systematic strategies are very short, at the 0th percentile on a 1yr lookback per GS' models, while CFTC managed-money net length has normalized to average levels".

The distinction between deeply bearish systematic strategies and average managed-money exposure leaves room for some investors to return without assuming the whole market is underinvested.

Price gains could prompt bearish traders to buy back positions.

Goldman's desk makes that prospect conditional: "This should create a favorable setup if recent momentum persists."

Gold price predictions FAQ What is Bank of America's gold forecast?

BofA projects $4,000 an ounce for Q4 2026 and $5,000 for Q2 and Q3 2027, followed by a 10% decline in its Q4 projection.

Why does HSBC remain positive on gold?

HSBC cites central-bank demand, investment inflows, geopolitical risks and reserve diversification, while warning that high yields and a stronger Dollar can weigh on prices.

What does Goldman's gold positioning analysis show?

Its desk says systematic strategies are at the bottom of their one-year positioning range. A sustained price rebound could encourage renewed buying.

Gold prices remained broadly unchanged in India on Wednesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

The price for Gold stood at 12,703.93 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, broadly stable compared with the INR 12,702.09 it cost on Tuesday.

The price for Gold was broadly steady at INR 148,173.20 per tola from INR 148,154.70 per tola a day earlier.

Unit measure

Gold Price in INR

1 Gram

12,703.93

10 Grams

127,042.40

Tola

148,173.20

Troy Ounce

395,136.80

FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.

Gold FAQs

Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

Gold price (XAU/USD) drifts lower to near $4,155 during the early Asian session on Wednesday. The precious metal extends the decline as rising oil prices fuel inflation concerns and prompt major central banks to tighten monetary policy. Traders await the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data later on Wednesday to gauge the outlook on monetary policy.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday highlighted risks from elevated public debt levels and rising bond yields that may be driven higher still by war-driven inflation pressures.

Additionally, rising tensions in the Middle East raise fears of oil-driven inflation. Yemen’s Houthis launched a missile barrage at cities throughout Saudi Arabia as the military says projectiles are being intercepted, with shrapnel falling on the city of Dhahran and injuring at least four in the capital, Riyadh.

However, remarks from Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of New York President John Williams might help limit the yellow metal’s losses. Williams said on Tuesday that he still sees one more interest-rate hike as appropriate this year, but doesn’t expect further tightening in 2027.

US Treasury yields dropped after Williams’ remarks, with two-year notes erasing an increase of as much as three basis points (bps). Lower yields are typically supportive for gold, which doesn’t bear interest.

Markets are pricing in roughly a 77.3% chance that the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged this month, while assigning nearly an 87.8% odds of a rate hike in December.

CTA short covering fails to remove downside risk for gold and platinumAccording to TD Securities, Commodity Trading Advisors have begun to pare back bearish exposure, with “CTAs covering some shorts in gold and platinum,” but the bank cautions that “pricing remains prone to further selling still.” This combination of short covering alongside lingering vulnerability underscores that recent positioning shifts have yet to fully neutralize downside risks in the precious metals complex.

Williams leans dovish on 2027 rates but Fed tone stays firmly hawkishFed’s Williams delivered a notably softer message, with the FXS Speechtracker score at 3.4/10, well below the 5.8/10 historical average, signaling a more dovish tone relative to the established baseline. The explicit comment that Williams currently sees no need for a rate hike in 2027, alongside confidence that inflation will slow “quite a bit” toward the 2% target next year, reinforces expectations for a prolonged pause and eventual easing in Dollar policy. This combination suggests reduced upside risks for the Dollar and a more supportive backdrop for risk assets, especially if incoming data confirm the disinflation narrative.

The FXS Fed Sentiment Index fell by 3.09 points to 133.86, indicating a meaningful pullback in perceived hawkishness despite remaining well above the neutral 100 mark. This configuration shows the Fed still in hawkish territory compared to the established baseline, but Williams’ softer stance and the weak FXS Speechtracker score point to a gradual shift toward a less aggressive policy outlook that FX markets may interpret as incrementally Dollar-negative over the medium term.

Technical Analysis: Gold remains capped under the 100-day SMAIn the daily chart, XAU/USD maintains a bearish near-term bias as price holds beneath the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) and the Bollinger middle band. The clustering of these overhead averages suggests gold remains capped within a corrective phase, while the lower Bollinger band underpins the current consolidation. The Relative Strength Index (14) at 43.15 stays below the neutral 50 line, hinting at subdued buying interest rather than an outright oversold condition.

On the topside, initial resistance is located at the Bollinger 20-period SMA near $4,220, followed by the 100-day SMA at $4,250, with a stronger barrier at the upper Bollinger band around $4,390, where selling pressure could re-emerge if a rebound extends. On the downside, immediate support is provided by the lower Bollinger band at $4,045; a decisive break below this floor would open the way toward deeper retracement, while holding above it keeps XAU/USD in a range-bound bearish correction beneath its key moving average cluster.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

The Chinese government has tried to internationalize the yuan and raise its stature as a global currency for decades. Hong Kong's ascension as a prominent yuan-denominated gold trading hub is giving that effort a big boost.

S&P Global Ratings managing director Charles Chang told CNBC that Hong Kong's evolution as a gold trading center and the ensuing elevation of the yuan's status could ultimately undercut the dollar.

“As those trading volumes grow, there would be a growing volume of the physical gold trade that is denominated in RMB and not linked in USD.”

Chang said the biggest challenge to internationalizing the yuan is finding places to use it. Hong Kong’s rapidly developing gold-trading platform coupled with Beijing’s aggressive gold buying creates such an avenue.

“In terms of gold particularly, if the RMB that the buyer receives can be converted to gold, then it gives more channels for the spending to be done.”

Hong Kong's quest to become a global gold hub

Earlier this summer, Hong Kong launched trial operations of a gold clearing and settlement system, putting the region in a position to challenge Western dominance of the global gold market.

The government-owned clearing system reportedly “mirrors” the financial infrastructure used by the LBMA in London.

When unveiling the system, Hong Kong Precious Metals Central Clearing Company CEO John Lee Ka-chiue said the company will offer “a comprehensive suite of services ranging from gold deposits and withdrawals to transaction settlements in the over-the-counter market in Hong Kong,” adding that a new gold price ticker – HAU – would be introduced to “ensure that Hong Kong gold prices are fully accessible to global market participants.”

To facilitate the clearing system, the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) opened its first offshore gold delivery vault in Hong Kong.

At the time, Secretary for Financial Services & the Treasury Christopher Hui said that the SGE's decision to establish its first International Board certified vault in the special administrative region “offers international investors an option for delivering gold offshore, marking a key stride in the internationalization of the country's gold market, extending the global footprint of renminbi-denominated gold trading, and further strengthening Hong Kong's role in the regional market.”

Over the next three years, Hong Kong plans to expand its gold vaulting capacity from 150 to over 2,000 tonnes.

“If Hong Kong can complete this transaction, then it would become one of the largest gold trading centers in the world,” Chang said.

Last month, Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (HKEX) announced plans to launch a yuan-denominated gold futures contract early next year.

According to the South China Morning Post, the move aims to advance two priorities outlined in the city’s five-year plan announced last week:

Promoting yuan internationalizationDeveloping Hong Kong’s gold marketChinese central bank Gold buying also boosts YuanMeanwhile, the People’s Bank of China continues the aggressive expansion of its gold reserves.

The Chinese central bank has reported an increase in its official gold reserves for 23 straight months, including a 23-tonne addition to its official holdings in September. This followed 20-tonne purchases in July and August.

Year-to-date, the People’s Bank of China has reported 80 additional tonnes added to its gold holdings.

And the Chinese have bought a lot more gold than that. According to data parsed by the renowned Money Metals researcher, the Chinese central bank currently sits on more than 5,000 tonnes of monetary gold in Beijing – more than TWICE what Chinese officials publicly admit.

Guotai Junan International chief economist Hau Zhou said this consistent gold buying “reinforces the credibility of the renminbi’s internationalization drive.”

“By steadily increasing gold reserves, Beijing is strengthening the long-term backing of its financial system and reducing reliance on dollar-denominated reserve assets. While gold alone will not determine the RMB’s global role, it enhances confidence in the currency and supports broader efforts to expand its use in trade, investment and official reserves.”

Nanhua Futures head of precious metals and new energy research Xia Yingying said gold accumulation by China and other central banks will “reduce global reliance” on U.S. Treasuries and dollar reserves.

“In the medium to long term, it will gradually weaken the U.S. dollar’s monopolistic position in the global reserve system.”

A problem for the U.S.While the dollar won’t likely fall from its perch as a global reserve currency, even modest de-dollarization is problematic for the United States.

The U.S. depends on global demand for dollars.

The greenback’s role as the world's reserve currency is the only reason the U.S. can borrow, spend, and run massive budget deficits to the extent it does. It creates a built-in global demand for dollars and dollar-denominated assets. This absorbs the Federal Reserve’s money creation and helps maintain dollar strength despite the Federal Reserve’s inflationary policies.

A de-dollarization of the world economy could cause a dollar glut. The U.S. currency could further depreciate. At the extreme, global de-dollarization could spark a currency crisis. You and I would feel the impact through higher price inflation, eating away at the dollar's purchasing power. In the worst-case scenario, it could lead to hyperinflation.

Gold Attempts To Settle Below $4150

Gold 131026 Daily Chart
Gold is losing ground despite weaker dollar. U.S. dollar pulled back against a broad basket of currencies as forex traders took some profits off the table near yearly highs. Weaker dollar is bullish for dollar-denominated commodities, including gold.

Treasury yields were mixed in today’s trading session. The yield of 2-year Treasuries moved above the 4.81% level as traders bet that Fed will be forced to raise rates to fight inflation. That said, FedWatch Tool indicates that there is a 23.8% probability of a rate hike at the next meeting in October. The market expects that Fed will raise rates in December.

Interestingly, longer-dated bonds have finally started to attract investors. The yield of 10-year Treasuries pulled back towards the 5.22% level, while the yield of 30-year Treasuries declined below 5.58%. Gold traders focused on dynamics of shorter-term yields and ignored recent developments in long-dated bond markets.

Oil prices gained some ground as traders focused on escalation in the Middle East. President Trump said that Houthis were “behaving very badly” and accused them of trying to drive up oil prices. I’d note that oil markets did not rally after Trump’s words, which was surprising as Trump’s post signaled that U.S. could put pressure on the Houthis.

From the technical point of view, gold made an attempt to settle above the resistance level at $4160 – $4180 but lost momentum and pulled back towards the $4150 level. In case gold settles below $4160, it will head towards the $4100 level. A move below $4100 will open the way to the test of the support at $4000 – $4020.

Silver Retreats As Gold/Silver Ratio Moves Above 70

Silver 131026 Daily Chart
Silver pulled back as gold/silver ratio climbed above the psychologically important 70.00 level. If gold/silver ratio settles above 70.00, it will head towards the 72.00 level, which will be bearish for silver.

Currently, silver is trying to settle below the $59.00 level. In case this attempt is successful, silver will move towards the nearest support, which is located in the $56.00 – $57.00 range.

A move below the $56.00 level will provide silver with a chance to gain additional downside momentum. In this case, silver will head towards the $52.00 level. RSI is in the moderate territory, so there is plenty of room to gain momentum in case the right catalysts emerge.

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Platinum Is Under Strong Pressure

Platinum 131026 Daily Chart
Platinum is losing ground amid broad pullback in precious metals markets. Palladium markets are down by -1.3%, which is bearish for platinum.

Platinum failed to settle above the resistance at $1700 – $1720 and declined towards the $1650 level. In case platinum settles below $1650, it will head towards the nearest support, which is located in the $1600 – $1620 range. A successful test of this level will open the way to the test of the $1520 level.

If you’d like to know more about how to trade gold and silver, please visit our educational area.

US Inflation Forecast: CPI Puts December Fed Hike Calls to the Test Wednesday's US inflation report could reinforce a December Fed increase, while banks question whether markets have priced too much tightening. US inflation figures on Wednesday will test whether the Federal Reserve can wait until December to raise interest rates again, and whether another increase would be enough to finish the job.

Goldman Sachs expects one further quarter-point rise in December, taking the federal funds range to 4.00-4.25%.

The September consumer price report is due on 14 October at 13:30 BST.

The consensus recorded in Crédit Agricole's 9 October calendar was for annual headline inflation to rise to 3.6%, from 3.4%.

An acceleration alone would therefore not constitute an upside surprise.

Goldman expects December to be the final increase After Governor Christopher Waller's 8 October speech, Goldman's economics team wrote: "We continue to expect one additional 25bp rate hike in December, which would raise the funds rate to 4-4.25%. Waller's message is in line with comments last week from President Williams and Vice Chair Jefferson that pointed toward skipping a hike in October."

The speech also reduced the risk, in Goldman's assessment, of the Fed stopping at its September increase: "We have lowered our probability that the FOMC could pass on a December hike because Waller's speech represents a hawkish shift relative to his emphasis in previous comments on the three-month annualized rate of core PCE inflation, which is now just 2.0%."

That 2.0% figure refers to a three-month annualised measure of core PCE inflation, a different index and period from Wednesday's annual headline CPI reading.

Goldman identified risks extending beyond energy: "Waller said that the lack of a resolution to the Middle East conflict, signs that the artificial intelligence buildout is raising consumer prices for technology goods, and the risk of new tariffs had undermined his faith that inflation is progressing toward the 2% target."

Goldman's lower peak-rate forecast rests on disinflation outlasting those pressures.

Its economists wrote: "We continue to think that by March-the next meeting after December where a hike might be under consideration on an every-other-meeting schedule-the inflation data will have improved enough to convince most of the FOMC that additional hikes are unnecessary."

A broad rise in prices beyond food and energy would challenge that expectation more directly than a headline increase concentrated in petrol.

It could make waiting until December harder to defend, even if part of the headline rise was expected.

Higher Treasury yields do not all reflect the next Fed decision Crédit Agricole's rates team distinguished the forces affecting long-dated bonds from the outlook for the next meeting in its 8 October review.

It wrote: "Rates continued climbing to fresh highs in the past week, driven by supply and rising long-term rates in Europe. Treasury 10Y and 30Y yields are at their highest level since the early 2000s. Meanwhile, recent Fed speakers expressed little urgency to raise rates at the October meeting, helping anchor front-end rates."

Long-term borrowing costs can rise as investors demand more compensation to absorb debt, even when the expected timing of the next official increase barely changes.

Crédit Agricole added: "In rates direction, we take a cautious stance following the relentless rise in long-term rates, a trend that can continue in the short run. If the CPI data comes in as expected, front-end rates should have limited upside."

An inflation surprise would matter most where it changed the expected policy path, especially the prospect of an October increase or additional moves during 2027.

The Dollar and gold face different tests The currency market also enters the release with substantial optimism about the US already reflected in positioning.

UBS's recent weekly report said: "Overall, we conclude that a combination of factors has driven EURUSD lower, but that the magnitude of the move exceeds what fundamental drivers would justify. In addition, positioning and options market indicators suggest that the USD has become overbought, while the EUR appears oversold."

This does not make a Dollar fall inevitable after an in-line report, but it raises the burden on fresh data to justify adding to existing bullish positions.

Our latest EUR/USD outlook also examined how French fiscal concerns have supported the Dollar independently of US inflation.

For gold, a shift towards higher US rates can increase the appeal of interest-bearing alternatives, particularly if inflation-adjusted yields rise.

UBS retained a distinction between that near-term pressure and the sources of longer-term demand: "While a hawkish Federal Reserve may pose a near-term headwind for gold, we remain constructive on the metal's longer-term outlook, supported by robust central bank demand, growing debt concerns, and expectations of a weaker US dollar."

The bank's view, explored in our coverage of gold's recovery forecasts, allows for further price weakness before its projected recovery.

Wednesday's most consequential outcome would be evidence that underlying inflation is becoming harder to reverse, forcing investors to reconsider the assumption that December can be the last increase.

When is the US CPI report?

September CPI is due on Wednesday 14 October at 13:30 BST.

What is Goldman Sachs' Fed forecast?

One further 25-basis-point increase in December, taking the target range to 4.00-4.25%.

Would higher annual inflation guarantee a stronger Dollar?

No. The result must be judged against expectations and its effect on the anticipated Fed path.

Gold (XAU/USD) holds modest gains during European trading hours on Tuesday as a pullback in the US Dollar (USD) and US Treasury yields supports the precious metal. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades around $4,183, up 0.28% on the day.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, trades around 102.29 after reaching 102.61 on Monday, its highest since April 2025.

Meanwhile, Treasury yields are declining across the curve as short covering and demand for government bonds pick up after a sell-off in AI-related stocks. The benchmark 10-year yield slips below 5.20%, retreating from last week’s peak of 5.36%, its highest since 2002.

However, Gold lacks strong upward momentum and remains capped below the $4,200 mark as the broader fundamental backdrop keeps buyers cautious. Further declines in the US Dollar and Treasury yields could remain limited as energy-driven inflation risks linked to Middle East tensions reinforce expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may need to keep interest rates higher for longer.

Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said on Monday that she prefers smaller interest-rate adjustments but wants the Fed to act “relatively quickly.” Hammack added that trend inflation is in the “mid-to-high 2% range” and expects it will take time to return to the central bank’s 2% target despite appropriate monetary policy.

Energy prices remain volatile at elevated levels, with no sign of a breakthrough in diplomatic efforts to reach a US-Iran agreement on reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Escalating fighting between Saudi Arabia and Yemen’s Houthis adds to concerns over regional security and energy supplies.

Geopolitical tensions and inflation risks would normally support Gold. However, elevated borrowing costs encourage investors to favour interest-bearing assets. Traders now look ahead to the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, due on Wednesday, for fresh clues on the interest-rate path.

Analysts at MUFG/BTMU highlight that “the recent run of softer US data (PCE deflator report for August and NFP report for September) alongside cautious comments over the need for another back-to-back hike from the Fed’s leadership have dampened expectations for another rate hike as soon as this month.” They note that “market expectations for the Fed to stay on hold this month will be tested by the release on Wednesday of the latest US CPI report for September,” which is seen as the key near-term catalyst for rate pricing.

MUFG/BTMU add that “unless there is a significant upside surprise for underlying inflation, we expect the Fed to leave rates on hold this month,” while stressing that “it is likely to be only a temporary pause as the Fed currently plans to hike rates again before the end of this year in December.”

Technical analysis: XAU/USD consolidates below key moving averages

On the daily chart, XAU/USD maintains a pattern of lower highs and lower lows since peaking near $4,700 in late August and subsequently slipping back below its key Simple Moving Averages (SMAs). The broader structure remains bearish, although selling pressure shows signs of easing.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 45 hints at subdued downside pressure, whereas the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is turning slightly positive, though the overhead moving averages remain barriers to a stronger recovery.

On the topside, initial resistance lies at the 100-day SMA near $4,252, followed by the 50-day SMA around $4,339. A stronger barrier stands at $4,450, ahead of the 200-day SMA near $4,527.

On the downside, initial support emerges at $4,100. A break below this level could expose the $4,000-$3,950 zone, while holding above this floor would allow Gold to consolidate within the current bearish framework.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Gold FAQs

Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

This preview of weekly data examines USOIL and XAUUSD, with economic data expected later this week as the primary market drivers of the near-term outlook.

Highlights of the week: RBA meeting minutes, US inflation, British GDP, US PPITuesdayRBA meeting minutes at 12:30 AM GMT. These are published 2 weeks after the interest rate decision. They give full detail of the discussions and the different views, and record the votes of the members of the committee. This could spark some volatility in the Australian dollar and the instruments traded against it.

WednesdayChinese inflation rate at 01:30 AM GMT. The market is expecting this figure to tick upwards by 0.2%, reaching 1% for September.

US Inflation rate at 12:30 PM GMT, where the consensus is for an increase of around 0.3%, reaching 3.7% for September. If this is broadly accurate, then it might not influence a change in the stance of the Federal Reserve at their next meeting, where the probability for now is that they will keep the rates stable. On the other hand, if there is any significant surprise change in the actual figure, then it will affect the dollar in the short term.

TuesdayBritish GDP growth at 06:00 AM GMT. The market consensus is that the figure will decrease from 0.4% to -0.1% month over month.  This might not have a major effect on the quid since it is for the month of August; however, it would provide some hints on the overall economic performance of the British economy.

US Producers Price Index (PPI) at 12:30 PM GMT. Market participants are expecting the figure to come out at 0.5% over 0.4% of the previous reading. If this is confirmed, then it could potentially hint at higher inflation figures in the coming months since higher producers' costs usually roll down to consumers, pushing inflation figures to the upside.

Fed chair Kevin Warsh speech on Thursday at the IMF’s annual meeting in Bangkok. It's a particularly interesting point in time because this is ahead of its two-day meeting ending on October 28 and could help markets have "less uncertainty" about the outcome of the meeting.

USOil, daily

Oil prices fell as traders weighed rising Middle East tensions against resilient crude flows. Despite attacks on Saudi Arabia and another tanker in the Strait of Hormuz, exports from the Persian Gulf have recovered to around 17.5 million barrels a day, or 98% of pre-war levels, limiting the impact on supply. Markets are also assessing a potential Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire and Russia’s decision to resume some diesel exports, although the additional volumes are relatively small. Meanwhile, the IEA is calling for faster releases of diesel reserves as global fuel markets remain tight.

From a technical perspective, crude oil is showing sideways-to-bullish momentum, trading around $90 after finding support near the 50% Fibonacci level at $88. Price is holding above the rising 50-day moving average, while the 100-day moving average remains well below at around $83.5, supporting the broader bullish structure. The key resistance is at $91, followed by the 23.6% Fibonacci level around $95. A sustained break above $91 could open the way toward $95, while a move below $88 would weaken the setup and expose the 61.8% level at $85.

Gold-Dollar, daily

Gold traded below $4,200 as investors weighed lower oil prices against persistent inflation risks and awaited key US economic data for clues on the Fed’s rate path. Falling Treasury yields and continued buying by gold ETFs and China’s central bank provided some support. However, gold remains under pressure from elevated bond yields and expectations of further monetary tightening. The metal has fallen about 20% since the US-Iran war began, while ongoing energy disruptions in the Middle East continue to create inflationary pressure. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s upcoming comments and US inflation data could provide further direction for gold.

From a technical point of view, gold rebounded from the support of $4,130 and is currently on route to test the resistance of $4,250, which is the next major resistance area consisting of the 61.8% daily Fibonacci retracement level and also the 100-day simple moving average. The Stochastic oscillator is in neutral levels hinting that there is potential for the price to move in either direction in the short term. The moving averages are validating the overall bullish trend despite the bearish trend which is in place since late August. The Bollinger Bands are also quite expanded, showing that there is sufficient volatility in the market to support any sharp moves; however, we might need a new catalyst in the market to see any sharp moves anytime soon.

In the latest trading session, Gold.com (GOLD - Free Report) closed at $39.73, marking a -2.36% move from the previous day. The stock's change was less than the S&P 500's daily loss of 0.06%. On the other hand, the Dow registered a gain of 0.38%, and the technology-centric Nasdaq decreased by 0.44%.

Heading into today, shares of the precious metals trading company had lost 15.62% over the past month, lagging the Finance sector's loss of 2.69% and the S&P 500's gain of 2.36%.

The investment community will be closely monitoring the performance of Gold.com in its forthcoming earnings report. It is anticipated that the company will report an EPS of $0.88, marking a 340% rise compared to the same quarter of the previous year. Meanwhile, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenue is projecting net sales of $5.37 billion, up 45.93% from the year-ago period.

In terms of the entire fiscal year, the Zacks Consensus Estimates predict earnings of $3.73 per share and a revenue of $22.37 billion, indicating changes of -27.29% and -12.31%, respectively, from the former year.

Additionally, investors should keep an eye on any recent revisions to analyst forecasts for Goldcom. These latest adjustments often mirror the shifting dynamics of short-term business patterns. Hence, positive alterations in estimates signify analyst optimism regarding the business and profitability.

Our research reveals that these estimate alterations are directly linked with the stock price performance in the near future. To capitalize on this, we've crafted the Zacks Rank, a unique model that incorporates these estimate changes and offers a practical rating system.

The Zacks Rank system, ranging from #1 (Strong Buy) to #5 (Strong Sell), possesses a remarkable history of outdoing, externally audited, with #1 stocks returning an average annual gain of +25% since 1988. Over the past month, there's been no change in the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate. Gold.com is holding a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold) right now.

From a valuation perspective, Gold.com is currently exchanging hands at a Forward P/E ratio of 10.91. This expresses a discount compared to the average Forward P/E of 10.93 of its industry.

The Financial - Miscellaneous Services industry is part of the Finance sector. Currently, this industry holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 166, positioning it in the bottom 33% of all 250+ industries.

The Zacks Industry Rank is ordered from best to worst in terms of the average Zacks Rank of the individual companies within each of these sectors. Our research shows that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1.

Ensure to harness Zacks.com to stay updated with all these stock-shifting metrics, among others, in the next trading sessions.

Gold Moves Lower As Oil Markets Rally

Gold 121026 Daily Chart Gold pulls back as traders focus on rising oil prices. Brent oil climbed above the $106.00 level amid escalation in the Middle East. Iran-backed Houthis attacked Saudi airports, raising worries about wider conflict in the region.

High oil prices will force central banks to raise rates to fight inflation, which will be bearish for gold. High interest rates serve as a negative catalyst for precious metals that pay no interest.

Kazakhstan’s central bank has recently announced that it would start selling gold as Treasury yields increased to attractive levels. Deputy Governor Aliya Moldabekova said that dollar had become an attractive option, reducing the attractiveness of gold as an investment.

I’d note that the share of gold in Kazakhstan’s reserves has increased to 78%, so it’s not surprising to see that the central bank has started to search for alternatives.

Kazakhstan’s example shows that yields matter for decision makers. Many central banks buy gold to diversify their reserves, but some institutions are ready to take a closer look at the share of gold in their portfolios amid rising bond yields.

FedWatch Tool shows that the probability of a rate hike at the meeting in October has climbed back above the 20% level. The market does not expect that Fed will raise rates soon but prepares for a potential rate hike in December.

Gold made an attempt to settle above the resistance at $4160 – $4180 but lost momentum and pulled back. If gold settles back below the $4160 level, it will head towards the $4100 level. A move below $4100 will open the way to the test of the support at $4000 – $4020.

Silver Retreats As Gold/Silver Ratio Climbs Above 69

Silver 1201026 Daily Chart Silver pulls back as gold/silver ratio climbed back above the 69.00 level. A move above 69.00 will push gold/silver ratio towards the psychologically important 70.00 level, which will be bearish for silver.

In case silver settles below the $60.00 level, it will head towards the nearest support, which is located in the $56.00 – $57.00 range. A move below the $56.00 level will provide silver with an opportunity to gain additional downside momentum.

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See all Gold forecasts On the upside, a successful test of the resistance at $61.00 – $62.00 will push silver towards the 50 MA at $64.32. If silver climbs above the 50 MA, it will head towards the resistance level at $65.00 – $66.00.

Platinum 121026 Daily Chart Platinum pulled back from session highs as traders reacted to the rally in the oil markets. Palladium markets were down by -0.5%, which was bearish for platinum.

If platinum pulls back below the $1650 level, it will head towards the nearest support, which is located in the $1600 – $1620 range. RSI is in the moderate territory, so there is plenty of room to gain downside momentum in the near term.

On the upside, a move above the $1720 level will open the way to the test of the 50 MA at $1761. In case platinum manages to settle above the 50 MA, it will head towards the next resistance at $1780 – $1800.

If you’d like to know more about how to trade gold and silver, please visit our educational area.

Gold came under renewed pressure in the first half of Monday’s session, alongside weakness across the major FX pairs, especially the EUR/USD. The gold weakness follows a relatively sharp two-day rally at the end of last week, which had raised hopes that the metal may finally have found a floor. For now, however, the rebound has lost some momentum, leaving the bottoming-out story far from convincing. I would still like to see confirmation from price action before turning tactically bullish on gold again, even though the longer-term fundamental case for the metal remains constructive. For now, my near-term gold forecast remains cautious as before.

Technically, gold is not yet in a convincing bullish environment with the dollar strengthening and yields remaining elevated, increasing the opportunity cost of holding a zero-yielding asset like gold. That said, it has shown some resilience despite the recent rise in bond yields and renewed strength in the US dollar. Wednesday’s US CPI report could therefore prove important in determining whether the dollar extends its rally — and whether gold can hold its recent gains, or whether it could come under renewed pressure.

Dollar and oil add fresh pressure on gold forecast The dollar’s renewed strength is a major headwind for gold at the start of the week. Much of the move has been driven by another leg higher in oil prices, which is putting pressure on the currencies of major energy importers such as the yen, pound and euro. The euro is also being weighed down by lingering concerns over French fiscal policy.

Brent crude has climbed to $105 a barrel, testing its highest levels since mid-September. The latest move follows Iran’s rejection of a US proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz as insufficient, alongside an increase in attacks in the Gulf region that has disrupted supplies.

Meanwhile, hostilities between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis continue, with further attacks on Riyadh over the weekend, including one targeting a major airport. President Trump has said the US is considering joining Saudi strikes against the Houthis.

Geopolitical tensions elsewhere are also adding to the uncertainty. Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky has claimed that Russia struck a Ukrainian power plant immediately after Trump announced an energy ceasefire at the weekend.

Oil supply has also been affected by disruptions along the US Gulf Coast following Hurricane Eceas, which made landfall last week. More than 60% of regional oil production was reportedly taken offline ahead of the storm.

Gold technical analysis and key levels to watch Gold bounced from a key technical area between $4,080 and $4,100 last week. This zone had previously acted as important support and was the launch point for the strong rally seen in early August.

Having returned to the area, gold duly found buyers last week. The question now is whether that rebound marks the beginning of a fresh bullish move or was simply a dead-cat bounce within a broader correction.

Source: TradingView.com There has been one encouraging development: the gold price has broken above the short-term bearish trend line. However, the follow-through has so far been limited.

The metal remains below its 21-day exponential moving average, while resistance between $4,230 and $4,265 has held. This is the first major hurdle that needs to be cleared before I would become tactically bullish.

For now, I’m cautiously optimistic, but the dollar’s continued strength makes me reluctant to call a definitive bottom.

A break back below the $4,080–$4,100 support zone would undermine the recent recovery and open the door to further losses towards $4,000. Below that, the June low around $3,942 would come back into focus.

On the upside, a sustained break above $4,230–$4,265 would improve the technical picture considerably, potentially exposing $4,325 initially, followed by $4,400 and then $4,500.

For now, however, I would rather let price action do the talking before committing to a stronger directional view.

Gold forecast: Will the metal shrug off a stronger dollar? Gold’s relative resilience is notable given that the dollar and bond yields have both moved higher — two factors that would normally create a difficult backdrop for the metal.

One explanation is that investors are increasingly looking beyond the immediate impact of tighter monetary policy and focusing instead on the inflation risks created by elevated oil prices. If energy costs remain high, markets may become more concerned about inflation proving sticky or even accelerating again.

That may explain why gold has held up relatively well rather than selling off more aggressively.

There are also signs of continued underlying demand. Gold-backed ETFs have continued to see inflows during the recent weakness, while central-bank buying remains an important source of support, with China continuing to accumulate gold.

In other words, the fundamental case for gold has not disappeared simply because the dollar and yields have moved higher.

US inflation and central-bank speeches in focus The biggest near-term catalyst is likely to be US inflation data for the dollar, and by extension, gold.

September CPI is due on Wednesday, October 14, followed by PPI on Thursday. After the recent softer patch in US economic data helped take some of the sting out of the dollar and Treasury yield rally, investors will be watching closely for signs that inflation is beginning to reaccelerate.

A particularly strong CPI reading could trigger renewed volatility across markets and provide another lift for the dollar and yields, potentially putting further pressure on gold. CPI stood at 2.4% year-on-year in August.

Thursday will also bring US retail sales, jobless claims and several manufacturing surveys. Together with the inflation data, these releases should help determine the direction of the dollar for the remainder of the week, with attention then turning towards the FOMC meeting later this month.

There will also be plenty of central-bank commentary to digest. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey, ECB President Christine Lagarde and BoC Governor Tiff Macklem are due to speak on Wednesday at the IMF and World Bank annual meetings in Bangkok, followed by SNB Chairman Martin Schlegel on Thursday and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh on Friday.

For gold, the technical picture remains finely balanced. The $4,080–$4,100 area is the key line of defence, while $4,230–$4,265 remains the barrier that bulls need to overcome to turn the gold forecast bullish. Until one of those zones gives way, patience looks preferable to trying to call the next major move too early.

Gold: Inflation Data Takes Center Stage as Energy Pressure Eases Gold got a minor tailwind Monday due to a dip in the energy markets and a softening in some inflation fears. This move came after President Trump announced what he called a temporary energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. Details of the arrangement remain unclear, and neither Moscow nor Kyiv had fully confirmed it. Lower energy costs should help ease headline inflation and should provide the Federal Reserve some flexiblility to pause their rate hikes.

Investor focus now shifts to the upcoming U.S. CPI report due out on Wednesday. Market expectations for an October Fed Funds hike have dropped to approximately 17%, while expectations for a December hike have risen to approximately 86%. With the Fed expected to continue hiking through year end, there is still a good chance that there will be some contraction in the non-yielding asset class in the near to intermediate term.

Institutional investor interest in gold remained high. Global gold ETFs added 67 metric tons in September, and brought total holdings to a new record high of 4,256 tonnes. Third quarter global inflows to gold ETFs hit an all time high of $31 billion, according to the World Gold Council.

A forecast cited by Reuters suggests elevated central-bank demand will continue through 2026. Estimates indicate purchases will be around 720 metric tons in 2026, which is about a 15% reduction from 2025, but still above pre-2022 levels.

Silver: Investment Demand Offsets Solar-Sector Weakness Fed policy impacts silver prices, but unlike gold, silver has an active industrial demand component. The Silver Institute expects a sixth successive structural deficit in 2026, with an estimated shortfall of 46.3 million ounces.

Industrial demand for silver in 2026 is expected to drop to 639.6 million ounces due to the continued substitution of silver in Photovoltaic manufacturing. AI Infrastructure and the Automotive and Power Electronics sectors will help absorb some of the silver demand.

Also, bar and coin demand for silver is expected to increase by 18%, indicating a return by investors into the silver markets.

Gold Technical Analysis: XAU/USD Rejected Below $4,227 as $4,175 Support Comes Into Focus

Gold – Chart Gold is sitting at around $4,185.32 on the 2-hour chart and recently failed to break above the $4,200 region. Gold is still under the descending trendline and the longer term moving average. The recent candles are showing a loss of momentum after the bounce from the $4,103 region.

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See all Gold forecasts I am looking for gold to bounce from the $4,175.03 region, but if it does break below this region, I expect further downside to the $4,141.86 region and possibly $4,103.24 and $4,067.42. On the other hand, if we do see a move above the $4,226.82 region, I expect further upside to the $4,271.57 and $4,311.17 regions.

RSI has moved away from overbought region and is now in the middle of the range. I believe that gold is still in a bearish state as long as it is below $4,226.82 and the descending trendline. If gold does break above this region, it would change the bias to bullish. If gold breaks below the $4,175.03 region, this would open up further downside toward the $4,141.86 region.

Silver Technical Analysis: XAG/USD Rejected at Trendline as $59.96 Support Returns to Focus

Silver – Chart Silver has risen to $60.88 on the 2-hour chart after bouncing up from $58.74, but stalled against the falling trendline. I like to sell here because Silver is also still below the larger moving average structure and trendline, which keeps the bigger picture still in a downtrend.

$59.96 is the first support area I want to watch. A clear move below that would bring $58.74 into play and support below that would be $57.64. $61.72 remains the first major resistance area, with $63.06 and $65.09 becoming more relevant resistance areas if we see a strong move by the bulls to breakout.

RSI is moving back toward its average after the recent move higher and tells us momentum is potentially moving back toward the mean. I like to sell in this area. I will look to change my bias if silver moves and closes above $61.72. If silver moves below $59.96, that would further validate a move toward $58.74 next.

Before anyone starts celebrating, though, there’s unfinished business overhead.

The upper boundary of the current consolidation sits at 101.67, while the key resistance zone at 102.36-102.49 remains the bigger test.

That resistance area will help determine whether buyers have enough strength to break out of the sideways pattern – or whether we’re simply watching another attempt to push toward the top of the range.

Nevertheless, the bigger technical picture hasn’t changed.

The June and July highs at 101.49-101.57 remain the critical support zone that continues to shape our broader outlook.

As long as this area holds, the bullish case retains an important technical foundation. However, the nearby resistance levels still need to be cleared before we can talk about a convincing continuation higher.

Daily Takeaway

Bullish confirmation: a daily close above 102.05 would create the conditions for a bullish engulfing pattern. Resistance to watch: the consolidation’s upper boundary at 102.27, followed by 102.36-102.49. Nearest support: Wednesday’s bullish gap at 101.60-101.70. Key structural support: the June and July highs at 101.49-101.57. Bottom line: buyers have shown resilience, but the dollar still needs to clear overhead resistance. Until then, we’re watching the range rather than declaring a breakout.

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See all Gold forecasts Well, ladies and gentlemen, we have a breakout.

At least for now.

Gold bulls have pushed through both the upper boundary of the black declining channel and the red short-term downtrend line. That’s a meaningful intraday development – but there are two things we need to keep in mind before getting carried away.

First: this is still an intraday move.

We don’t have a confirmed daily close yet, so we’re keeping our enthusiasm under control until buyers prove they can hold their gains through the finish line.

Second: that red downtrend line deserves another look.

Together with the lower red line, it forms a potential declining wedge – a pattern that can sometimes precede a bullish reversal. If buyers confirm today’s breakout, the technical picture could become considerably more encouraging.

And here’s the level that matters most right now: 4202.

A daily close at least above that level – the upper boundary of the black declining channel, which is currently acting as potential support following the intraday breakout – would strengthen the case for a continuation higher.

What If the Breakout Holds? If gold finishes the session above 4202, the beginning of next week could bring another bullish attempt.

The next important obstacle would be the bearish gap at 4315-4321, created on September 28. A move toward that zone would be an encouraging development for buyers, although the gap itself could still attract selling pressure.

One more thing worth highlighting: all the indicators we’re monitoring have generated buy signals. Combined with a confirmed breakout above the declining resistance lines, that would make the bullish case more compelling.

And from a broader technical perspective, if the breakout is confirmed, we estimate the minimum upside potential of the developing bullish move at approximately 4500, based on the height of the declining wedge.

That’s a potential technical objective, not a guarantee – and the intermediate resistance zones still matter.

Zooming Out

The broader bullish scenario remains conditional on the breakout holding.

The key support area is unchanged: 4098–4135, with the psychological 4100 barrier remaining particularly important.

A confirmed breakout would improve the near-term outlook but losing that support would undermine the bullish case.

Daily Takeaway

Bullish trigger: a daily close above 4202, confirming the breakout from the black declining channel. First upside target: the September 28 bearish gap at 4315-4321. Potential next objective: around 4500, based on the height of the declining wedge, provided the bullish breakout is confirmed and follow-through develops. Key support: 4098-4135, especially 4100. What to avoid: treating an intraday breakout as a confirmed daily signal. Bottom line: gold bulls have made an impressive move, and the indicators are supporting their effort. Now they need to deliver the daily close that turns a promising setup into a confirmed technical development.

Gold and the dollar are making headlines today, but there’s more happening beneath the surface. Silver has already invalidated a recent breakdown, while platinum, palladium, and copper are testing technical levels that could shape their next moves.

Final Thought – The Close Matters More Than the Excitement Friday has given the bulls plenty of reasons to feel encouraged. Gold is challenging its declining resistance lines, silver has already invalidated a small breakdown, platinum is fighting to reclaim its rising channel, and copper is attempting another breakout – all while the dollar is showing strength of its own. That’s an interesting development, but interesting doesn’t automatically mean confirmed. Our job isn’t to predict how today’s candles will finish. It’s to know exactly which closing levels will matter when they do. Let the market make its move. We’ll deal with the evidence.

Have a wonderful weekend!
Anna

Non-yielding Assets Like Gold Hate Higher Rates A lot of traders are going to be watching the energy market. The crude oil market, of course, is a major influence on what is going on with rates, with supply being a major concern. That has been the story since the war started. Now, the question is whether or not those rates can continue to roll over. If they do, that could give us a little bit of relief here in the gold market. This is the hope, at least.

From a technical analysis point of view, each rally is getting lower, producing lower highs. We have not broken down to a fresh new low, though, so if we turn around here, it could be a change in attitude.

I think this is a market that remains very noisy going forward, mainly due to the fact that not only will interest rates be an issue, but geopolitical issues driving those rates are one of the biggest problems. It is just too unpredictable. Regardless, I do think there are some buyers in this general vicinity.

Daily Spot Gold (XAU/USD) Spot Gold is sharply higher early Friday as traders continue to build on the rally from the low reached on Wednesday at $4066.54.

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart; however, the minor trend is up. This could drive up near-term volatility. The main trend changes to up on a trade through $4399.67. A move through $4066.54 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The minor trend turned up earlier today when $4184.38 was taken out. If this move generates enough upside momentum, it could lead to a test of a key retracement-level resistance cluster at $4230.51 to $4233.10. If the buying is strong enough to take out this area, the 61.8% level at $4272.41 will come into play. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration into the 50% level at $4319.60, followed by the 50-day moving average at $4334.94.

What to Watch There is no major U.S. economic report Friday to take over the trade. Gold is going to follow the headlines out of the Middle East, crude oil, the dollar and Treasury yields.

The deal talk is winning this morning. Crude is lower and gold buyers have the edge going into the New York open.

Buyers took out the minor top at $4184.38 early Friday and the next stop is the retracement cluster at $4230.51 to $4233.10. That cluster is where the bounce runs into its first real selling.

My bias is still to the downside, but my outlook was weakened by the change in the minor trend. There is room to the upside to extend the rally, but the move could be labored due to overhead resistance. Each level could lead to refreshed selling pressure. Until we see a sustained move over the 50-day moving average at $4334.94, sellers are still going to be in control.

Sellers still have the bigger trend until $4399.67 is taken out. Wednesday’s low at $4066.54 is the floor under the whole bounce.

If you’d like to know more about how to trade gold, please visit our educational area.

Gold: Softer Yields Offer Relief as Institutional Buying Deepens Gold’s basic backdrop improved Friday with a weaker U.S. dollar and lower Treasury yields. Non-yielding bullion had recently faced headwinds from a strong dollar and rising yields. Softer labor-market data mean there is a 17% probability of a Fed rate hike in October and an 83% probability of a hike in December, keeping the end-of-year outlook restrictive. Other Fed officials, like Governor Waller, said, “additional” rate hikes will likely be needed to get inflation to the 2% target, and that they had the flexibility to determine the timing.

Strong investment demand is helping to offset the restrictive rate environment. Global gold ETFs added another 67 metric tons in September, bringing holdings to a record 4,256 tons. Strong third quarter inflows also set a record at $31 billion, according to the World Gold Council.

Silver: Investment Demand Confronts Weakening Solar Consumption Just like gold, silver benefits from the Fed shift. But while gold has transitioned to a more store of value role, silver has not, and its fundamental story remains more industrial. The Silver Institute expects 2026 to be the sixth consecutive year of a market deficit, with the estimated deficit for the year at 46.3 million ounces. The cumulative stock draw since 2021 is around 762 million ounces.

Industrial fabrication is estimated at 639.6 million ounces for 2026, impacted by silver thrifting and the substitution of silver in the manufacture of solar panels. However, AI infrastructure and automotive electronics, and the strengthening of the power grid remain positive demand drivers.

Coin and bar demand is expected to increase by 18% in 2026, while U.S. retail investment is expected to increase by 88% after several years of low demand.

Both metals are expected to have positive demand from investment, but silver has a more structural supply constraint than gold.

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Gold Technical Analysis: XAU/USD Breaks Above $4,184 as $4,226 Becomes the Next Upside Test

Gold – Chart Gold is trading at $4,193.60 on the 2-hour chart, and what draws my attention is the convincing break above the descending trendline and the resistance level at $4,183.83. Additionally, price is trading above the short-term moving averages, which is an improvement in the structure after several weeks of lower highs.

The first resistance that I am focusing on is at $4,225.81. Once above that, the next resistances come in at $4,271.57 and $4,311.17. On the other hand, if the breakout fails, the support comes in at $4,183.83, then $4,141.86 and $4,103.24.

RSI has moved into the upper range, which indicates bullish momentum, but has stretched a bit too far, which indicates that a pullback could be on the cards. Overall, I’m bullish as long as gold stays above $4,183.83 and the descending trendline. A clear break above $4,225.81 would target the next resistance at $4,271.57. A break below $4,141.86 would negate the breakout.

Silver Technical Analysis: XAG/USD Reclaims $59.96 as $61.72 Becomes the Next Major Test

Silver – Chart Silver is near $60.42 on the 2 hour chart, having bounced sharply from the $58.94 area. Price has reclaimed $59.96, and is now testing the downward sloping trendline. It’s a bullish sign that price has recovered to this area, but as long as silver is trading below the moving-average cluster, the structure remains bearish.

The first area of resistance is at $61.72. A close above this level would open up $63.06, followed by the $65.09 area. If the recovery loses steam, $59.96 would be the first area of support, with $58.94, and $57.64 following suit.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has recovered to the upper portion of its range, which means momentum is improving. I am currently neutral to slightly bullish, and would become more bullish with a 2-hour close above $61.72, with a break of $63.06 next. A move back below $58.94 would bring the trendline back into play and give the sellers control once again.

Gold (XAU) and silver (XAG) prices rose in early Asian trading on Friday as the US dollar dropped to 102 and Treasury yields eased. Gold gained over 0.9% to around $4,175 an ounce while silver climbed over 1% to $60. A soft US dollar makes both metals cheaper for overseas buyers.

However, the market still expects the 82% chance of a rate hike by the Fed in December. This keeps the recovery in gold and silver vulnerable to fresh inflation concerns.

St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said on Thursday that further hikes in interest rates would be needed to bring inflation back to 2%. He left the October decision open. His comments suggest that the pause in the interest rates in October would not remove the risk of further tightening.

Meanwhile, President Trump described the talks with Iran as productive and ruled out US attacks before the elections in November. In my view, the drop in tensions between the US and Iran could ease energy inflation and reduce pressure for higher rates. But they could also weaken demand for gold as a safe haven and leave the outlook mixed in the near term.

Gold Price Forecast: $4,330 Breakout Could Target $4,530 The daily chart for spot gold shows that the price has been trading within a triangle pattern in 2026. The price formed a low at $4,066 on October 7, 2026, and initiated a rebound toward the $4,175 area.

The price must break at least the $4,330 level to open the way for a rally towards the $4,530 area. A break above $4,530 will likely confirm a breakout and push gold prices towards the $5,000 area. As long as the gold price remains between $4,000 and $4,500, the possibility of consolidation remains high.

The 4-hour chart for spot gold also shows strong consolidation between $4,100 and $4,300. A break of either of these levels will likely define the next move in the gold market. However, if the price remains below $4,300, the formation of bearish price patterns may limit the rallies in the gold market.

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Silver Price Forecast: $65 Breakout Could Put $72 in View The daily chart for spot silver also shows strong consolidation in the short term within the triangle pattern. The support of the triangle lies between $55 and $56, while the resistance remains at the $65 area. A break above $65 will likely open the way for a rally towards the 200-day SMA at the $72 level.

A break above $72 is required to open the way for a strong rally in the silver market. However, a break below $55 will likely push the price towards $50.

The 4-hour chart for spot silver also shows strong consolidation within the wedge pattern. The immediate resistance remains at $62. A break above $62 will likely open the way for a rally towards the $72 area. The short-term price action shows that a break below $55 will likely open the way for a drop towards the $50 area.

What to Watch Next Traders will watch the US dollar, Treasury yields and fresh comments by the Fed for the next move in gold and silver prices. A further drop in the dollar and yields could support a recovery in both metals. But renewed concerns about inflation may strengthen the expectations for another rate hike.

The developments in the relationship between the US and Iran may shift the oil prices and demand for gold as a safe haven. Gold needs to break above $4,330 to target $4,530. Silver must clear $65 to bring $72 into view. On the other hand, the key support for gold remains at $4,000, while a break below $55 in silver could trigger a drop towards $50.

At 16:05 GMT, spot gold is trading at $4,107.44, down $3.90 or -0.09%. It opened at $4,112.73, reached $4,143.43 and bottomed at $4,103.45.

The Fed Still Has Another Hike in the Market The September Fed minutes did not give gold traders much room to buy. Officials agreed on the quarter-point increase, but not all for the same reason. Some were focused on energy and other price shocks. Others were worried inflation was spreading through demand.

Either way, officials still think inflation is too high. They aren’t ready to let long-term yields carry the tightening.

Governor Christopher Waller said more hikes will likely be needed to bring inflation down, though not necessarily back to back.

FedWatch puts the odds of a hold at the October 28 meeting at 80.6%, with a 19.4% chance of another quarter-point increase. December is a different trade. The market puts 86.3% odds on at least one increase by the December 9 meeting.

December is the date gold has to carry.

Gold Price Forecast

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See all Gold forecastsDaily US Government Bonds 10-Year Yield The 10-year Treasury yield was around 5.30% Thursday after reaching 5.354% Wednesday, its highest level since 2002. The 30-year was near 5.65% after trading just under a 24-year high the day before.

The 10-year auction Wednesday drew strong central-bank demand, but it still cleared at the highest yield since November 2000. Buyers showed up. They demanded a lot of yield to do it.

Treasury sells $22 billion of 30-year bonds Thursday. That is the next test for a market that has been questioning who will own long-dated U.S. debt as deficits grow and oil climbs.

Those same deficit worries are part of why gold has a floor under it. With yields over 5%, nobody’s in a hurry to chase it.

Hormuz Risk Is Supporting Gold, Not Lifting It The Strait of Hormuz is still a risk for the metal. Tanker operators are dealing with more threats and intimidation after Iran warned it could block routes it has not authorized.

That keeps a geopolitical bid under gold. It also helps explain why the market did not collapse after Wednesday’s selloff.

It hasn’t turned the trend, though. Traders are looking at Treasury yields, the dollar and December before they look at the tankers.

Daily Spot Gold (XAUUSD) Technical Analysis Daily Spot Gold (XAU/USD) Spot gold is trading lower Thursday after failing to extend the early rally. The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through the main top at $4,399.67 will change the main trend to up. A move through the main bottom at $4,066.54 will reaffirm the downtrend.

The minor trend is down. Wednesday’s high at $4,184.38 is the new minor top. A trade through this level will turn the minor trend up and show that buyers are doing more than reacting to the low.

The first resistance is the long-term 61.8% level at $4,230.51. Above it, resistance comes in at $4,315.81, followed by the 50-day moving average at $4,331.62.

A break through $4,066.54 would expose the main bottoms at $3,996.06, $3,959.80 and $3,942.10. The 61.8% retracement level at $3,886.46 is the deeper downside target.

What to Watch The 30-year Treasury auction is the next live test for gold. The 10-year sale found buyers Wednesday, and the yield still stayed high. The long end and the dollar haven’t backed off, and Thursday’s early buying didn’t survive that.

Spot gold topped at $4,143.43 early Thursday and slipped back toward $4,103.45 by midday in New York. The bias is to the downside while the main and minor trends are down, gold remains under $4,230.51 and the market trades below the 50-day moving average. Buyers need to take out $4,184.38 first. Sellers need $4,066.54 to resume the downtrend.

If you’d like to know more about how to trade gold, please visit our educational area.

Safe-haven Assets Performance in 2026. *DXY – U.S. Dollar Index. Source: Elev8 broker A very strong U.S. dollar and high Treasury bond yields have driven these declines in precious metals. The dollar index recently reached a 17-month high, making metals more expensive for foreign buyers. Meanwhile, Treasury yields hit their highest levels since 2002, increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding metals.

Furthermore, the Federal Reserve (Fed) raised interest rates in September to a range of 3.75–4.00%. Higher rates normally slow the economy and, as a result, hurt platinum and silver particularly hard, because both metals rely heavily on industrial use and lack the strong investment status of gold. Platinum faces extra pressure because more than half of its demand used to come from autocatalysts. However, the shift toward electric vehicles clouds the longer-term autocatalyst demand. Meanwhile, new solar panel recycling methods increase the global silver supply, which may exhibit a structural downward pressure on XAGUSD, especially after it rallied almost 150% in 2025.

Outlook for Gold We forecast that gold will move above $5,000 per ounce in 2027. Even while near-term headwinds remain (particularly tighter monetary policy in the U.S. and elsewhere), steady buying by exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and growing sovereign demand on the part of global central banks provide long-term support for bullion. In addition, European political tension and instability in international government bond markets will continue to push institutional and retail buyers toward safety.

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See all Gold forecasts Three additional factors could drive gold back above the $5,500 level. A shift in the Fed’s policy would matter most. Officials, including New York Fed President John Williams, have signalled no rush for another hike. Indeed, markets now price only a 22% chance of an October increase, down from about 70% a week earlier. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly has said that if tariff, oil, and other shocks prove temporary, further hikes may not be needed. A pause in rate hikes will weaken the dollar and lower real yields, thus reducing the cost of holding gold.

Second, the normalisation of the geopolitical situation in the Persian Gulf and Eastern Europe will stabilise energy markets and lower crude oil prices. A move in WTI below its 200-day moving average near the $83 level could lower inflation expectations and Treasury yields, weakening the U.S. dollar and benefiting gold.

Finally, Asian market infrastructure may also expand the buyer base. Hong Kong plans a central clearing system, a renminbi gold futures contract, and more than 2,000 metric tons of storage capacity. Singapore is starting central bank vaulting services, with commercial capacity already above 2,000 metric tons. Indeed, physical buying has already responded to lower prices. Perth Mint gold sales nearly doubled in September to 47,300 ounces, the highest in seven months, up 97.6% from August and 29.3% from a year earlier.

Conclusion Gold has underperformed other safe havens this year because of a strong dollar, high yields, and tighter monetary policy on the part of the Fed. Silver and platinum fell more sharply for the same reasons, plus weaker industrial demand. However, we believe that fundamental demand drivers remain intact. Political tension, public debt concerns, and potential shifts in central bank monetary policy provide strong support for a long-term recovery.

We still see a path back above $5,000 and towards $5,500 in 2027 if the Fed signals that rate rises are near an end, if oil prices ease, and if ETF and physical buying continue. Those shifts would need to arrive in sequence. Until they do, gold is likely to remain sensitive to yields and the dollar.

 | Source: ATG Capital Management LP

Glass Lewis Concludes ATG Capital Has Offered Investors “a Compelling Opportunity to Incrementally Reshape an Underperforming, Regressive and Disconcertingly Disengaged Boardroom”

Glass Lewis Recommends Stockholders Vote FOR ATG Capital Nominees James C. Elbaor, Gabriel D. Gliksberg and Aaron T. Morris and WITHHOLD on Ryan Lane, Ian Read and Orn Olason and Egan-Jones Recommends Stockholders Vote FOR All Four ATG Capital Nominees

Egan-Jones Concludes “Shareholders Have Little Reason to Give This Board an Unchanged Mandate”

MIAMI, Oct. 08, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- ATG Capital Management LP (“ATG Capital”), together with certain of its affiliates, is the beneficial owner of 4,500,000 shares, or approximately 16%, of Empery Digital Inc. (Nasdaq: EMPD) (“Empery Digital” or the “Company”) and its largest non-affiliated stockholder, today announced that leading independent proxy advisory firm, Glass, Lewis & Co. (“Glass Lewis”), has recommended that stockholders vote on ATG Capital’s GOLD universal proxy card FOR the election of James C. Elbaor, Gabriel D. Gliksberg and Aaron T. Morris to Empery Digital’s Board of Directors (the “Board”) at the Company’s upcoming Annual Meeting of Stockholders on October 14, 2026 (the “Annual Meeting”). In addition, independent proxy advisory firm Egan-Jones Proxy Services (“Egan-Jones”) has recommended that stockholders vote on the GOLD card FOR all four ATG Capital nominees – James C. Elbaor, Gabriel D. Gliksberg, Meredith S. Kirshenbaum and Aaron T. Morris. Egan-Jones also recommended that stockholders vote AGAINST the approval of Empery Digital’s 2025 Stock Plan.

Glass Lewis and Egan-Jones join Institutional Shareholder Services Inc. (“ISS”) – marking a unanimous decision by all three leading proxy advisory firms – in recommending that Empery Digital stockholders vote on ATG Capital’s GOLD universal proxy card. With these recommendations, all leading independent proxy advisory firms have now concluded that change is warranted in the Empery Digital boardroom.

In its report, Glass Lewis affirmed ATG Capital’s case for boardroom change, stating:1

On the Board’s Breach of Fiduciary Duties and Entrenchment Tactics

“Faced with mounting investor pressure in the midst of a spiraling DAT strategy, the board, led by Mr. Lane, employed numerous regressive governance tactics, up to and including a nomination rejection which was ultimately determined to be inequitable and a breach of the board’s fiduciary duties.”“There is a credible argument that board change is warranted on this basis alone.” (referring to the Delaware Chancery Court’s determination that the Board breached its fiduciary duties)“These excerpts reinforce the notion that some meaningful portion of high-level board and management deliberation was centered on range-finding conditions sufficiently onerous to deter further action by ATG, rather than campaigning on the merits.”“Amid this turbulent arc, it appears the incumbent board determined to erect a particularly burdensome bulwark punctuated by a ‘kitchen sink’ rejection letter… currently available materials tilt much more heavily against the incumbent directors.” On Board Oversight, Related Party Dealings and Credibility

“Testimony further suggests investors have considerable cause to doubt the fundamental efficacy of the board’s core oversight functions.”“The board has since advanced an array of narrative threads (e.g. limited engagement, rebuffed settlements, conflicts of interest) that are either insufficiently substantiated or clash heavily with the board’s own moribund track record.”“Despite these dynamics, its antagonistic approach to multiple large investors and a nearly unchecked pattern of shareholder losses in the wake of Empery's June 2025 PIPE, the board maintains that it is ‘qualified’ as currently composed, and that its most recent strategic rewrite ‘will set [Empery] up for a future of sustained success.’ Available materials suggest investors should greet this position with considerable skepticism.”
Why Glass Lewis Supports Replacing Lane, Read and Olason

On Ryan Lane: “Mr. Lane serves as board chair, co-CEO and the apparent architect of Empery’s to-date value-destructive strategic pivots and, just as presently, the Company’s entrenchment-first approach to shareholder dissent.”On Ian Read: “[I]t is not evident Mr. Read is substantively engaged as an Empery board member or firmly committed to sound governance.”On Orn Olason: “Removal of Mr. Olason does not appear to represent a material risk to institutional knowledge or board continuity.”“Replacement of the foregoing incumbent nominees would represent a relatively low-risk, minority-basis transition while also affording alternate nominees a clear mandate to address noted gaps in oversight.”A “Compelling Opportunity” for Change “[W]ith reference to a persuasive case for change, ATG has offered Empery investors a compelling opportunity to incrementally reshape an underperforming, regressive and disconcertingly disengaged boardroom in favor of enhanced strategic, financial and governance oversight.”
In its report, Egan-Jones affirmed ATG Capital’s case for boardroom change, stating:

“Since the Company announced its bitcoin strategy in July 2025, the shares have returned −67% against +26% for the broad market and are down about 70% from the placement price.”“Shareholders have little reason to give this Board an unchanged mandate to execute its data center strategy.”“Missing its own timeline in the final weeks of a proxy contest, when the Company has every incentive to show progress, gives shareholders little reason to believe the new strategy is being executed well.” (referring to the Company's missed third-quarter target for closing its previously announced Midwest data center investment)“Shareholders have a choice at this meeting only because ATG litigated for it, and the directors who approved the rejection are standing for election again.”“A director who does not know he leads the committee responsible for Board composition and governance represents an extreme failure of governance.” (referring to Ian Read)“We believe four independent directors would add the scrutiny of capital allocation, related party dealings and disclosure that this record shows is missing.” Gabi Gliksberg, Founder and Managing Member of ATG Capital, issued the following statement:

“Glass Lewis and Egan-Jones have now joined ISS in concluding that change is warranted at Empery Digital. Glass Lewis noted in its report that this Board, led by Mr. Lane, was found by the Delaware Chancery Court to have breached its fiduciary duties in an effort to keep our nominees off the ballot, has presided over steep declines in stockholder value and has offered stockholders narratives that clash with its own track record. We are gratified by Glass Lewis’s support for three of our nominees and its recommendation to withhold on Messrs. Lane, Read and Olason.

We are pleased that Egan-Jones went further, recommending that stockholders support all four of our nominees and withhold on Messrs. Lane, Read, Olason and Chauhan. Egan-Jones echoes our call for independent oversight in the boardroom, finding that Empery Digital stockholders have lost two-thirds of their investment since the bitcoin pivot, and concluding that four independent directors would bring the scrutiny of capital allocation, related party dealings and disclosure that is currently missing.

We urge stockholders to vote FOR James Elbaor, Gabi Gliksberg, Meredith Kirshenbaum and Aaron Morris today.”

Vote FOR ATG Capital’s Four Nominees

Vote FOR James C. Elbaor, Gabriel D. Gliksberg, Meredith S. Kirshenbaum and Aaron T. Morris to support a refreshed Board focused on maximizing value of ALL Empery stockholders.

Do NOT vote for Rohan Chauhan, Ryan Lane, Orn Olason or Ian Read.

All three leading independent proxy advisory firms – ISS, Glass Lewis and Egan-Jones – recommend that stockholders vote on ATG Capital’s GOLD universal proxy card. Because the GOLD card includes all ATG Capital nominees and all of the Company’s nominees, there is no need to use any other proxy card, regardless of how you intend to vote. Please vote the GOLD proxy card or GOLD voting instruction form today by internet, telephone or mail, following the instructions provided.

If you have already voted on the Company’s white proxy card or voting instruction form, you can still support change. Under the universal proxy rules, ATG Capital’s nominees also appear on the Company’s white card, and votes FOR them count on either card.

But the best way to support all four ATG Capital nominees is to vote a later-dated GOLD proxy card, which will automatically revoke your earlier vote. If you vote on the white card instead, vote FOR James C. Elbaor, Gabriel D. Gliksberg, Meredith S. Kirshenbaum and Aaron T. Morris and WITHHOLD on Rohan Chauhan, Ryan Lane, Orn Olason and Ian Read. On either card, do not vote FOR more than nine nominees, or your votes on the election of directors will not be counted.

If you have already voted the GOLD card, please do NOT return a white card. Only your latest-dated proxy counts, so returning the Company’s white card – even one marked “withhold” as a protest – will revoke the proxy you previously submitted to us.

Questions about how to vote? Contact Saratoga Proxy Consulting LLC at (212) 257-1311, (888) 368-0379 or [email protected].

About ATG Capital Management LP

ATG Capital Management LP is a privately-held investment firm that manages investment vehicles for select accredited investors. ATG Capital invests primarily in public equity markets, utilizing alternative strategies including direct and constructive engagement, in pursuit of providing superior investment returns.

Media & Investor Contact

Saratoga Proxy Consulting LLC

John Ferguson, (212) 257-1311

[email protected]

1Permission to quote Glass Lewis or Egan-Jones was neither sought nor received. Emphasis added to quotes. Glass Lewis report dated October 1, 2026. Egan-Jones report dated October 6, 2026.

TL;DR: Gold fell to 4,066.21 before recovering toward 4,120, and while the near-term bias stays bearish below 4,227.85–4,245.68, fading downside momentum, a stalling 10-year yield near 5.3%, and a rising Gold/Silver ratio suggest a break below 4,000 may struggle to extend much past the 3,937–3,942 support cluster.

Why This Matters Gold’s selloff is approaching a potentially important test below 4,000. The metal fell to 4,066.21 on Wednesday before recovering toward 4,120, while the near-term bias remains bearish below the 4,227.85–4,245.68 resistance zone.

But the setup is becoming less one-sided. The US 10-year yield has started to meet strong demand around 5.3% and is approaching a major resistance area of its own, raising the possibility of a corrective pullback in yields. At the same time, the Gold/Silver ratio is turning higher, suggesting that selling pressure within precious metals is increasingly shifting toward Silver rather than Gold.

Neither development is enough to call a Gold bottom. But together with fading downside momentum on Gold’s 4-hour chart, they raise the possibility that a break below 4,000 may prove harder to extend than the headline level suggests. The real technical test lies slightly lower at 3,937–3,942, where the current decline reaches a major projection target and the July low.

Real Yields Remain the Main Macro Headwind The US 10-year yield’s recent surge toward 5.36% has therefore been more important for Gold than the inflation-hedge narrative.

Fed officials still see inflation risks tilted to the upside, with higher energy costs, AI-related investment and potential further tariff increases all identified as possible sources of persistent price pressure. Most participants nevertheless left the timing of the next hike open, saying another increase would likely be appropriate by year-end rather than committing specifically to October.

That leaves Gold sensitive not only to Fed expectations but also to what happens at the long end. The 10-year yield has started to meet stronger buying demand around 5.3%, while technically approaching a major 5.413–5.420% resistance cluster. If the yield begins a deeper retreat toward 5.04% or 4.92%, one of Gold’s strongest macro headwinds would ease.

The opposite remains equally important. A decisive break above 5.420% would argue that the yield surge still has further to run, keeping downward pressure on non-yielding Gold.

Dollar Strength Is the Second Gatekeeper A pullback in Treasury yields alone may not be enough to trigger a durable Gold rebound.

The Dollar remains near an 18-month high, supported partly by continued Euro weakness. That leaves Gold facing two simultaneous headwinds: elevated real yields and a firm Dollar.

The distinction matters for any recovery scenario: lower yields alone could slow or stop the decline in Gold, while lower yields combined with a weaker Dollar would provide a much stronger foundation for a rebound. As long as Dollar strength persists, Gold may continue to struggle even if the Treasury market begins to stabilize.

Gold/Silver Ratio Shows Pressure Is Shifting Toward Silver The Gold/Silver ratio provides another sign that the character of the precious-metals selloff may be changing.

The ratio has risen to around 69.48, pushing above the previous 69.06 area after its latest pullback held around 67.18. The 55-day EMA near 67.32 also held, while the ratio has moved above the 68.63 resistance area.

A sustained daily close above 68.63 would strengthen the case that the pullback from 72.554 has ended and put that high back into focus. The near-term bullish ratio structure remains intact while 67.18 holds.

That doesn’t provide a direct Gold buy signal. It instead suggests that selling pressure is increasingly concentrated in Silver, which could help explain why Gold’s downside momentum is beginning to fade even though the broader metals backdrop remains weak.

ActionForex’s Technical View: 3,937–3,942 Is the Real Decision Zone Technically, Gold’s decline from 4,697.07 can be treated as a corrective three-wave structure. The first leg fell to 4,234.68, followed by a rebound to 4,399.58. The current decline forms the third leg, with the 100% equality projection at 3,937.19.

That projection almost exactly overlaps the 3,942.43 July low, creating a narrow and technically significant support cluster at 3,937–3,942. This is more meaningful than the psychological 4,000 level itself—a move below 4,000 would not automatically signal an acceleration in the broader downtrend if Gold stabilizes around the 3,937–3,942 cluster.

Momentum is also beginning to warn that the decline may be entering a late stage. On the 4-hour chart, Gold has made lower lows while MACD has made higher lows, producing bullish divergence. That indicates fading downside momentum, although it does not yet confirm that a bottom has formed.

4,227–4,246 Still Keeps Bears in Control The immediate technical bias remains bearish while Gold stays below 4,227.85–4,245.68. The first obstacle on any rebound is the 4-hour 55 EMA near 4,171.58, followed by the descending trendline—but clearing those levels would only improve short-term momentum.

A sustained break above 4,245.68 would provide the first stronger indication that the current C-wave decline may have completed. Above there, 4,399.58 becomes the critical invalidation level for the present bearish count. Until those levels are reclaimed, rebounds should still be treated as corrective.

Below 3,937 Would Change the Story The potential exhaustion zone around 3,937–3,942 only matters if it actually holds. If Gold falls into that region, loses downside momentum and then recovers above 4,245.68, the case for completion of the C-wave would strengthen considerably.

But a sustained break below 3,937.19, together with a failure of the 3,942.43 July low, would instead indicate that the current decline is extending. A sustained break of 3,942.43 would also signal resumption of the broader decline from the 5,598.75 record high.

For now, Gold remains under pressure from real yields and the Dollar. But with downside momentum fading and a major technical cluster approaching just below 4,000, the selloff is entering an area where the balance between continuation and exhaustion could change quickly.

The key question is not simply whether Gold can break 4,000. It is whether the decline can still generate enough momentum to break through 3,937–3,942 once it gets there.

Key Takeaways Gold fell to 4,066.21 before recovering toward 4,120, with the near-term bias staying bearish below the 4,227.85–4,245.68 resistance zone. Rising real yields and dollar strength remain Gold’s two main headwinds, but the 10-year yield meeting demand near 5.3% and approaching its own 5.413–5.420% resistance raises the chance of a corrective pullback in yields. The Gold/Silver ratio’s rise above 68.63 suggests selling pressure within precious metals is shifting toward Silver, helping explain Gold’s fading downside momentum. The real technical decision zone is 3,937–3,942—not the psychological 4,000 level—where the current decline’s 100% equality projection overlaps the July low. A sustained break below 3,942.43 would signal resumption of the broader decline from the 5,598.75 record high, while a reclaim of 4,245.68 would strengthen the case that the C-wave decline has completed.

ActionForex

ActionForex.com was set up back in 2004 with the aim to provide insightful analysis to forex traders, serving the trading community for two decades. We started providing only a daily and a mid-day report, now known as Action Insights. Gradually, we added a lot more in-house contents to the site. Technical Outlook section was expanded to cover more pairs. In addition to that, Top Movers, Heat Map, Pivot Point Charts and Pivot Meters, Action Bias and Volatility Charts, are tools used by traders from all over the world.

Gold came under increased pressure from stronger dollar on Wednesday and cracked key $4120/$4100 support zone (Fibo 76.4% of $3942/$4697 rally / round-figure) which contained several attacks in past two weeks.

Recent action with temporary base but limited upticks capped by falling 10DMA and remaining below bear-trendline off $4697 peak, signals scenario of consolidation preceding fresh push lower.

Firm break of $4120/00 triggers is needed to confirm signal and open way towards psychological $4000 level and 2026 low at $3942.

Caution on bounce and repeated close above $4120 that would signal false break lower, but bears are expected to firmly hold grip while holding below falling trendline ($4190).

Only lift and close above $4230 (recent range top / broken Fibo 61.8%) would sideline bears and generate initial signal of bottom.

Res: 4144; 4190; 4230; 4266
Sup: 4066; 4021; 4000; 3960

Windsor Brokers Ltdhttp://www.windsorbrokers.com/

The information contained in this document was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed herein are in good faith, but are subject to change without notice. No liability accepted whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this document.

A stronger dollar, a rally in Treasury yields and oil’s reluctance to fall are creating headwinds for gold. Central banks are taking advantage of gold’s dip to boost their reserves. Gold has been unable to recover following a disappointing September, when the price fell by 6% against the backdrop of a Fed rate hike, a strengthening US dollar and a surge in long-term Treasury yields to 24-year highs. Other factors weighing on gold include oil’s stubborn refusal to fall, despite reports of a resumption of exports from the Middle East.

High energy prices suggest that inflationary pressures remain, forcing the Fed to maintain a hawkish stance, which works against gold. The resumption of attacks by Iran on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz and by Yemeni Houthis on Saudi Arabian oil infrastructure has pushed the price of Brent back above $100 per barrel, triggering another wave of sell-offs in risky assets across the markets. According to Kpler, oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz have fallen from 91% to 74% of pre-war levels.

This is all the more so as investors remain uncertain whether the Fed will tighten policy in October or postpone the move until December. CME futures put the probability of a rate rise in three weeks at 22% for October and 85% for December; however, FOMC officials are expressing conflicting views. Consequently, investors are playing it safe ahead of the publication of the minutes from the Fed’s September meeting, hoping for clarification on the central bank’s stance.

While everyone is selling, a great opportunity to buy is emerging. In September, China increased its gold reserves by a further 740,000 ounces, marking the 23rd consecutive month of accumulation. Meanwhile, according to the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA), central bank activity, coupled with mounting fiscal challenges and persistently high geopolitical risks, will drive gold prices to $5,013 per ounce within 12 months.

The LBMA noted that the energy crisis, persistent inflation, and rising bond yields to 24-year highs are creating a strong headwind for precious metals. The fact that the price of an ounce of gold has remained above $4,000 so far is evidence of strong demand for the physical asset.

The FxPro Analyst Team

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Risk Warning: Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss of some or all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. Orbex Global does not offer its services to residents of certain jurisdictions such as Mauritius, USA, and North Korea.

Gold: China Steps Up Buying as Fed Minutes Take Center Stage Data released on Wednesday showed that the People’s Bank of China increased its gold holdings for the 23rd month in a row in September. Official holdings increased to 77.47 million ounces in September from 76.73 million ounces in August, according to the data. The increase shows that Beijing’s gold accumulation is part of a strategic reserves’ diversification program, and not a short-term market intervention.

Other central banks have also been accumulating the yellow metal. The World Gold Council reported that according to the latest data, official sector purchases for the month of August totaled 39 tonnes, bringing year to date purchases to 170 tonnes.

The minutes from the September FOMC meeting is set for release on Wednesday, and markets will be monitoring the release to interpret how policymakers changed their views on the economy. A slowdown in the U.S. labor market and moderating U.S. inflation have been the primary driver behind expectations that the FOMC will not increase interest rates at its October meeting. 

However, markets are pricing in an over 85% probability of an interest rate increase at the December FOMC meeting. Earlier this week, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Jeffrey Schmid, said that further increases in the Fed’s policy rate may still be warranted to keep inflation in check.

Silver: Investment Demand Offsets Solar-Sector Thrifting Like gold, silver is sensitive to Fed policy. However, where supply and demand meet, physical markets for silver are more tightened. The Silver Institute is expecting 2026 to represent a sixth straight annual deficit of 46.3 million ounces, according to its April World Silver Survey 2026, with total demand forecast to fall 2% to 1.11 billion ounces.

The decline in fabrication demand, however, is expected to be partly offset by stronger investment. Industrial demand is forecast to fall 3%, while coin and net bar demand is expected to jump 18%. It’s reported that solar manufacturers are accelerating thrifting and substitution away from silver in photovoltaic applications.

The Silver Institute expects grid expansion, and growing AI data centers and automotive electronics as other positive growth areas for silver demand.   

Gold Price Forecast

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Gold Technical Analysis: XAU/USD Holds $4,112 as $4,160 Remains the First Recovery Barrier

Gold – Chart Gold is currently trading at approximately $4,142 on the 2-hour chart and what I find interesting is that the price is still holding above the $4,112 support area after another rejection from the 4,160-4,190 resistance area. The larger trend is still considered bearish as gold is still below both the moving averages and the descending trendline. Recent bounces have produced lower highs.

The first area of resistance I am looking at is $4,160. A clear break above this area would be eye opening and could target the next resistance areas at $4,190 and $4,214 and $4,238. Support would come in at $4,112 first, with $4,073 and $4,030 becoming more significant if sellers regain control.

RSI is also giving a bearish signal as it is still below the 50 center line. A recovery above $4,214 would put more weight behind the bullish case and a break below $4,112 would give a more bearish edge.

Silver Technical Analysis: XAG/USD Stays Below $61.72 as $59.96 Support Remains Critical

Silver – Chart Silver is currently around $60.84 on the 2-hour chart, having recently pulled back from a challenge of the $61.72 resistance area. Right now, price is below the moving averages and a bearish trendline, and also within the lower range of a larger bearish structure.

I’m looking for a break above $61.72 for some initial upside toward $63.06 and $65.09. Support is likely to come in at the $60 area and below it at $59.96, with additional support possible at $58.94 and $57.64.

RSI is in the lower range, and so momentum may be slightly in favor of the sell-side. I’m generally bearish below the $61.72 resistance area and the bearish trendline. A break above $63.06 would change that, and a move below $59.96 would put the focus on $58.94.