Gold traded at a premium in India last week for the first time in three months. This reflects the combined effect of tightening supply and improving demand.
Dealers reported premiums as high as $7 an ounce over domestic spot prices. That compares with discounts in the $5-to-$6 range the previous week.
Indian gold demand has improved as prices fell even as the festive buying season kicked off.
During the first week of October, Indian gold prices fell to ₹145,538 per 10 grams, the lowest level in nearly two months. According to the Times of India, “The correction brought more buyers into the market compared with the previous week and also resulted in sellers offering smaller discounts.”
The falling price coincided with the beginning of the festive season in September. This is considered an auspicious time to buy gold. The festival season starts in September, building into Navratri (Oct. 11), and peaking around Dhanteras (Nov. 6) and Diwali (Nov. 8). Buying typically continues into the winter wedding season.
On the supply side, Indian gold imports plunged by 45 percent in August and slumped again in September, falling from $2.3 billion to $1.8 billion according to preliminary data.
Imports typically pick up in late summer as dealers stock up on metal for the fall buying season. However, the government has aggressively tried to curb imports.
The Indian government announced the 9 percent duty increase in May. The change pushed the import tax on gold and silver from 6 to 15 percent. The move came as India struggled with a surging trade deficit that is pressuring its currency.
Oil accounts for around 22 percent of the nation's imports. The sudden spike in oil prices due to the U.S.-Iran war has hit India particularly hard. The country imports nearly 85 percent of its fuel, and about 50 percent of its crude imports flow through the Strait of Hormuz.
With both gold and oil prices spiking, India’s import bill has exploded. The country’s merchandise trade deficit topped $330 billion in the financial year ending March 2026. That was up from over $280 billion a year ago, a 17.9 percent increase.
The trade situation has put significant downward pressure on the rupee.
Gold and silver make up about 11 percent of India’s imports. The government raised import duties, hoping to limit metal flowing into the country. This will theoretically close that massive trade deficit and support the rupee.
So far, the move has proved effective, but it’s starting to create shortages of metal within the country.
More recently, several large Indian mutual funds issued public notices suspending bulk subscriptions to gold ETFs. According to Reuters, “The decision was taken following a nudge from the Securities and Exchange Board of India.”
While government intervention can limit imports, it’s unlikely to curb Indian’s appetite for gold.
When the government announced the import duty increase, Metals Focus pointed out that Indian gold and silver demand has historically remained resilient in a higher-tax environment. This reflects Indians' deep cultural connection to precious metals and their value as a store of wealth. As the rupee continues to depreciate, gold will become increasingly attractive.
According to Metals Focus analysts, “Consumers often delay purchases initially following sharp price increases but typically adjust to higher price levels over time. In addition, elevated duties could encourage a recovery in unofficial flows, which had collapsed following the 2024 duty reduction.”
That’s reflected in resilient festival season demand despite higher prices.
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Gold holds firm, Bitcoin reclaims 82k — But Sunday’s bounce still looks suspiciousGold and Bitcoin shows resilience as the new trading week opens with a cautious tone across global markets as investors digest last week’s inflation shocks and prepare for a heavy macro calendar ahead.
XRP struggles at support as ETF outflows and bearish momentum cloud recovery outlookRipple (XRP) holds slightly above $1.30 on Monday, with short-term recovery prospects fading. Strong structural resistance toward $1.40 continues to cap upside, raising the risk of further downside below $1.30.
Bitcoin vs Gold Forecast: BTC edges up, XAU struggles below $4,200 as Fed decision stays in focusBitcoin (BTC) trades higher, above $82,000 on Monday, helping lift broader crypto market sentiment after last week's correction near $80,000. The release of the United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which showed sticky inflation, caught many by surprise and triggered the sell-off in the second half of the week.
Gold 191026 Daily Chart
Gold pulls back as traders focus on stronger dollar and rising Treasury yields. Bond markets found themselves under pressure as bond traders reacted to rising oil prices. Houthis continue to attack Saudi Arabia, raising worries about additional escalation in the Middle East.
The yield of 2-year Treasuries moved above the 4.77% level, while the yield of 10-year Treasuries settled near 4.15%. Rising yields are bearish for gold that pays no interest.
I’d note that traders do not expect that Fed will raise rates at the next meeting in October despite rising oil prices. According to FedWatch Tool, the probability of a rate hike declined to 17.2%. However, the market expects that Fed will raise rates in December and January. Traders believe that Fed will not raise rates ahead of midterm elections but will be forced to continue the rate hike cycle to fight inflation in December.
U.S. dollar gained ground against a broad basket of currencies as traders focused on looting and riots in France. More than half a million people protested in France over the weekend, and these protests have quickly become violent. U.S. dollar’s safe-haven status provided support to the American currency, which was bearish for dollar-denominated commodities, including gold.
From the technical point of view, gold failed to settle above the resistance level at $4160 – $4180 and pulled back below the $4150 level. In case gold settles below $4150, it will head towards the next support, which is located in the $4000 – $4020 range.
Silver Moves Higher As Gold/Silver Ratio Pulls Back
Silver 191026 Daily Chart
Silver managed to gain some ground as gold/silver ratio pulled back below the 72.50 level. In case gold/silver ratio settles below 72.50, it will head towards the 70 level, which will be bullish for silver.
Silver needs to settle above the support at $56.00 – $57.00 to have a chance to gain upside momentum in the near term. In this case, silver will head towards the psychologically important $60.00 level. A move above $60.00 will open the way to the test of the resistance at $61.00 – $62.00.
On the support side, a move below the $56.00 level will provide silver with an opportunity to gain downside momentum. In this case, silver will head towards the next support at $51.00 – $52.00.
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Platinum Gains Ground Despite Rising Yields
Platinum 191026 Daily Chart
Platinum moved higher despite rising Treasury yields and higher oil prices. Palladium markets were up by +0.8%, which was bullish for platinum. It remains to be seen whether platinum will continue to move higher in case oil prices test new highs amid escalation in the Middle East. High oil prices hurt global economy and may reduce demand for platinum.
Platinum continues to rebound after an unsuccessful attempt to settle below the support level at $1600 – $1620. If platinum stays above the $1620 level, it will head towards the resistance level at $1700 – $1720. A move above the $1720 level will push platinum towards the 50 MA at $1750.
On the support side, a successful test of the support at $1600 – $1620 will open the way to the test of the next support at $1520 – $1540.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
Gold (XAU/USD) is struggling to capitalize on a weaker US Dollar (USD), after repeatedly failing to establish itself above the $4,200 level. The precious metal remains confined to a relatively narrow trading range despite a combination of developments that would normally support higher prices.
The US Dollar retreated last week, while United States (US) Treasury yields fell sharply from their recent highs as investors reassessed the Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate outlook and growing concerns surrounding Artificial Intelligence (AI) investments.
Under normal circumstances, this combination should provide meaningful support for Gold. A weaker US Dollar makes the metal more affordable for international buyers, while declining bond yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding an asset that pays no interest.
Yet Gold's recovery remains surprisingly restrained. The divergence suggests that investors are looking beyond the immediate retreat in the US Dollar and Treasury yields. Persistent inflation, expectations of further monetary tightening and uncertainty surrounding the sustainability of the recent bond rally are preventing buyers from committing to a more decisive advance.
The question is no longer simply whether the US Dollar can continue falling. It is whether the forces pushing it lower are strong enough to overcome the monetary policy risks still weighing on Gold.
The US Dollar weakened, but Gold missed its opportunityThe US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the Greenback against six major currencies, ended last week lower after four consecutive weekly advances, retreating from a year-to-date high near 102.95. The decline occurred despite stronger-than-expected US inflation figures, which would typically reinforce expectations of higher interest rates and support the Greenback.
Meanwhile, the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield fell on Friday, extending a sharp correction driven partly by concerns about the outlook for AI-related investment and economic growth.
Gold initially benefited from this adjustment, recovering from its post-inflation sell-off toward $4,200. However, the metal failed to extend its gains convincingly and continues to struggle below that psychological level. The limited reaction is particularly revealing because both major financial variables that traditionally influence Gold moved in its favor.
US Dollar Index (blue) vs XAU/USD (yellow). Source: FXStreetBut the relationship between Gold, the US Dollar and Treasury yields is not mechanical. The reasons behind changes in interest rates can matter as much as the direction of those changes.
In this case, falling yields partly reflect growing concerns about financial markets and future economic activity rather than clear evidence that inflation is returning toward the Fed's target. That distinction helps explain why investors remain reluctant to aggressively increase their exposure to the precious metal.
The Fed is still the problem Gold cannot ignoreThe latest US inflation figures provide an important explanation for Gold's hesitation. The September Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.7% YoY, exceeding expectations of 3.6% and up from 3.4% in August. Meanwhile, the Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 6.3% annually, significantly above the 5.3% consensus. These figures suggest that inflationary pressures remain persistent, complicating the Fed's efforts to restore price stability.
US Consumer Price Index. Source: CNBCAlthough investors have substantially reduced expectations of another interest rate hike at the October 27-28 meeting, they continue to anticipate additional tightening before year-end. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets assign approximately a 17% chance of an October rate hike, while the chance of a December increase remains close to 90%.
This creates an uncomfortable environment for Gold. Even if the US Dollar temporarily weakens, the prospect of higher interest rates limits the attractiveness of holding a non-yielding asset. Furthermore, any renewed increase in Treasury yields could quickly undermine the precious metal's recovery.
Nordea analysts maintain a particularly hawkish assessment of the monetary policy outlook, stating that they "still expect one more hike this year and another next year, with the risks tilted to the upside." The bank also argues that "monetary policy still does not look restrictive enough for an economy in this shape," emphasizing that inflation remains significantly above the Fed's objective.
For Gold investors, the implication is important. A temporary decline in the US Dollar does not necessarily signal the beginning of a sustained monetary easing cycle. As long as the Fed remains inclined toward further tightening, Gold may struggle to translate currency weakness into a durable rally.
Falling bond yields may be sending the wrong signalThe US Treasury market has become another source of uncertainty. Last week's decline in government bond yields initially appeared supportive of Gold, particularly after investors moved toward safer assets amid concerns about the sustainability of the AI investment boom.
According to Deutsche Bank, "the theme of the day was a big global rate rally, as the prospect of slower AI growth pushed yields lower across the board." The bank noted that the US 10-year Treasury yield declined by 12.7 basis points to 5.06%, even as economic data continued to point toward persistent inflation.
US 10-year bond yield. Source: TradingViewThis apparent contradiction matters for Gold. Lower nominal bond yields generally support the precious metal, but the effect also depends on inflation expectations and real yields, which represent the inflation-adjusted return available to investors. If Treasury yields decline because inflation expectations are falling faster than nominal yields, the resulting increase in real yields could limit Gold's attractiveness. Conversely, a sustained decline in real yields would provide stronger fundamental support for the metal.
Analysts at OCBC capture this distinction particularly well, describing the latest recovery as "another reminder that Gold is trading the bond market’s reaction to US data rather than the data itself." The bank also warns that "underlying inflation pressures remain elevated, and the recent decline in yields has been partly driven by risk aversion rather than improving inflation fundamentals."
This suggests that Gold's recent recovery may remain vulnerable if Treasury yields stabilize or resume their advance. The key question, therefore, is not simply whether yields are falling, but whether the decline reflects a lasting improvement in financial conditions for non-yielding assets.
Gold's resilience is real, but so is the lack of convictionDespite its inability to overcome $4,200, Gold is not experiencing a broad collapse in demand. The precious metal has recovered from its recent decline toward $4,073, suggesting that buyers remain willing to absorb selling pressure at lower prices.
This resilience is consistent with the investment flows highlighted by TD Securities. The bank notes that "macro discretionary positions remain elevated, while ETF inflows and central bank demand also remain strong." According to its analysts, these flows "have ultimately offered strong support for gold," and are expected to "remain robust, especially in the $4,000-4,100/oz region."
This creates an important distinction between a market lacking sufficient momentum to rally and one experiencing a structural deterioration in demand. Short-term investors remain sensitive to inflation surprises, changes in Treasury yields and shifting expectations for monetary policy. Meanwhile, longer-term investment demand appears more resilient.
As a result, Gold can remain supported without necessarily developing a sustained upward trend. The current price behavior may therefore reflect a confrontation between two groups of investors: those concerned about further monetary tightening and those willing to accumulate Gold as a longer-term portfolio asset. Neither side has established a decisive advantage.
Gold (XAU/USD) daily chart. Source: FXStreetThe next move depends on what happens after the Dollar's declineThe Fed's upcoming October 27-28 meeting will be an important test for Gold. With policymakers entering their blackout period, investors will have fewer opportunities to reassess the central bank's intentions through official speeches.
Attention will consequently shift toward Treasury yields, geopolitical developments and upcoming US economic indicators, particularly the preliminary Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) figures.
Three broad scenarios could emerge. If Treasury yields continue declining and markets further reduce expectations of monetary tightening, Gold could finally benefit more decisively from a weaker US Dollar.
If yields rebound as inflation concerns persist, the metal may remain under pressure even if the US Dollar struggles to recover.
A third possibility is that AI-related concerns deepen, weakening both US equities and the Greenback while encouraging additional Treasury purchases. In that environment, Gold's direction would depend heavily on whether falling real yields and safe-haven demand outweigh fears of persistent inflation.
The recent market reaction has already demonstrated that US Dollar weakness alone is not enough to guarantee higher Gold prices. The precious metal continues to attract underlying demand, but investors remain unwilling to disregard the prospect of additional Fed tightening.
Ultimately, the most revealing development is not the US Dollar’s fall. It is that Gold has struggled to capitalize on it. That hesitation suggests the market is still treating the recent decline in Treasury yields as potentially temporary, rather than as confirmation of a more favorable monetary environment.
Until that perception changes, Gold may continue finding buyers on declines without generating the sustained momentum needed for a stronger rally. The US Dollar has already offered Gold an opportunity. The bond market and the Fed will determine whether it can finally take it.
Gold Talking Points:
Gold has taken some hits as the August breakout went into reversal.
But like we saw in June and July, big support showed at a major psychological level with $4100 coming into play over the past couple weeks after $4k helped to set the floor this summer.
There can be large differences between short and long-terms, and that dichotomy has been clear so far this year in Gold. After coming into the year riding a massive wave of strength and overbought conditions, a sizable reversal in January led to a bounce that ran into March. But, that’s when the Iran scenario started to take over headlines and as fears of inflation entered the equation, Gold sellers took over.
In June, at the FOMC rate decision, a hawkish Fed gave investors even less reason to be excited about the long side of Gold. A more hawkish Fed combined with that jump in inflation made it seem as though holding a non-yielding asset like Gold or Bitcoin could be a sub-optimal route. And, accordingly, after Kevin Warsh’s first meeting atop the Fed, Gold finally broke down to re-test the $4k level.
But it’s what happened then that is of interest, as repeated attempts from sellers to push a breakdown failed, and from the weekly chart, you can see that there wasn’t a single week where spot Gold closed below the big figure, hinting that some market players were using this bearish short-term backdrop as opportunity to accumulate.
Gold Weekly Chart
Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview
Gold Daily
The above chart has the appearance of smoothness, given the build of support at $4k and the rally that followed, and then, more recently, the support at $4100. The daily chart is more chaotic, however, and there’s even a degree of resemblance between that June/July period and what’s taken place more recently.
This is, in essence, a range, although there’s not as much consistency as one might want when trading a range. There have been multiple resistance hits at $4200 and the upper wicks on those candles show short-term bears using rallies to pare positions. But, like we saw back in June and July, there’s also underside wicks after tests of lows, similar to what showed up last week and in that instance, we saw a higher-low print as bears were unable to take out the prior week low.
Gold Daily Chart
Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview
Gold: Threading the Needle
At this point traders would probably want to have a defined approach before looking to make a directional push on Gold, in either direction. For longer-term approaches, the prospect of a hold at short-term range support in the direction of the longer-term trend remains attractive. But, for those with more short-term vantage points, there might be an open door to work with the short-side within that range; and perhaps even a breach of support to allow for another $4k re-test.
On the below four-hour chart, I’ve allocated the range as it’s played out over the past few weeks, and shows of support above $4074 are of particular interest, with $4109-$4120 also presenting some attraction.
For resistance, the $4200 level has been trafficked so heavily that we’ve even seen some resistance build below that, around $4190, and that helps to demarcate resistance.
Gold Four-Hour Chart
Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview
--- written by James Stanley, Senior Market Analyst, Global Macro
US 10-year real Treasury yields fell from 2.91% to 2.74% between October 9 and 16, a decline of 17 basis points. Nominal rates also ended Friday lower. The Treasury reported a 2-year par yield of 4.74% and a 10-year par yield of 5.09%. Both remain interest-bearing alternatives to a metal that obviously distributes no income. Lower yields can improve gold’s relative appeal, but positive real returns still represent competition for gold to consider. Currency fluctuations, liquidity needs, and portfolio flows can offset the influence of rates, so the relationship should be treated as conditional and just one input.
CPI The relevant comparison is also forward-looking. Subtracting the latest 12-month CPI rate from a nominal Treasury yield would mix different horizons and not reproduce the official real yield measure. For analyzing gold, keeping these concepts separate helps distinguish a change in the return investors can attain from an announcement about inflation that has already occurred.
Inflation evidence available on Monday is still last week’s September data. CPI released on the 14th increased 0.6% month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted basis and 3.7% over 12 months before adjustment. Excluding food and energy, the corresponding increases were 0.3% and 2.6%.
PPI PPI published on the 15th added a separate warning. Final demand prices increased 1.3% monthly on a seasonally adjusted basis and 6.3% annually before adjustment. The measurement excluding food, energy, and trade services rose 0.5% monthly. Producer prices cover a different basket of inputs from CPI, and their increases do not pass through to households one for one. Nevertheless, the breadth of evidence argues against the idea that inflation has disappeared from the United States economy.
The import price report on Friday broadened the picture, with September import prices increasing 1.1% from August, including a 0.7% rise excluding fuel, without seasonal adjustment. That release is relevant background for policy expectations, not an additional amount that we should be adding to the CPI for gold.
The Analytical Tension Is Straightforward Persistent price pressure can increase interest in protecting purchasing power, while a restrictive policy response can raise the return available elsewhere, causing conflicting momentum. Activity offers a reason now to avoid a simple, easy narrative. The Federal Reserve report on October 16th showed industrial production increased 0.7%, with manufacturing output up 0.3%. Those preliminary estimates also indicate expansion in the measured month rather than a collapse that would by itself justify assuming immediate policy relief is coming out of the Federal Reserve.
Gold (XAU/USD) struggles after opening the week higher. The US Dollar (USD) and US Treasury yields find some footing following last week’s pullback as traders assess the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate path and geopolitical developments. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades around $4,170 after reaching an intraday high of $4,190.
The US Dollar and yields corrected sharply lower last week, driven by an AI-led equity sell-off that prompted traders to rotate into government bonds and safe-haven Gold. However, the metal’s gains were modest as expectations of additional interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve (Fed) continued to weigh on the non-yielding metal while cushioning the downside in the US Dollar and Treasury yields.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, trades around 101.90, up 0.10% on the day. Weakness in the Euro (EUR) amid mounting fiscal concerns and political unrest in France provides additional support to the USD. Meanwhile, the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield stands near 5.08%, holding close to recent lows.
Elevated energy prices linked to the war in the Middle East continue to feed into inflation, with both September’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) reports coming in hotter than expected. This reinforces expectations of another rate hike by year-end as the Fed seeks to bring inflation back to its 2% target.
Analysts at Nordea say they are leaving their Federal Reserve outlook unchanged, stressing that “we keep our Fed forecast unchanged” and “still expect one more hike this year and another next year, with the risks tilted to the upside.” In their view, “monetary policy still does not look restrictive enough for an economy in this shape,” particularly as “inflation is still clearly above target, and the September CPI shows it moving up, not down.”
Against that backdrop, Nordea argues that “long-term yields above 5% are not particularly restrictive,” and concludes that “all in all, our view is unchanged. A strong economy and above-target inflation still call for tighter policy. Higher long-term yields do not change that call. They mostly reflect the same strong economy that keeps the Fed hiking.”
Recent remarks from Fed officials also suggest they remain open to further tightening, although they have not strongly signaled a hike at the October 27-28 meeting. Speaking in Bangkok on Friday, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh stuck to his stance of avoiding forward guidance, saying, “I don't prejudge meetings.” The CME FedWatch Tool shows traders pricing in a 15% chance of a rate hike this month and an 89% chance of a hike in December.
On the geopolitical front, Iran has renewed its offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if Washington accepts its conditions, although negotiations remain stalled over Tehran’s nuclear programme. Meanwhile, continued attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and fighting between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis keep supply risks elevated. However, US President Donald Trump’s decision to temporarily waive sanctions on Russia has raised expectations of increased energy supplies.
On the daily chart, XAU/USD holds a mildly bearish near-term bias as price sits just under the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) embedded in the Bollinger Bands at $4,183. The failed recovery through this middle band hints that recent gains are losing traction, even as the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator turns positive and extends higher, suggesting only tentative upside momentum, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 45 keeps the broader tone slightly soft and the Average Directional Index (ADX) below 20 signals a weak underlying trend.
On the topside, the Bollinger middle band and 20-day SMA at $4,183 act as immediate resistance. A daily close above this pivot would be needed to ease the current downside pressure. On the downside, initial support is seen at the lower Bollinger Band near $4,053, where buyers may look to defend the recent range floor if the pullback accelerates.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Gold and Silver Firm as Softer Oil Cools Fed Hike Bets Precious metals gained at the beginning of the week as a drop in crude prices and expectations of a slower Federal Reserve rate hike combined to offer support.
Gold: Oil and the Fed Set the Tone In the previous trading session, spot gold gained slightly, with some reporting this was due to lower oil prices alleviating concerns of rising inflation, while traders waited for the Fed’s next move. According to the CME’s FedWatch, traders are pricing in a 16% chance of a rate hike this month; however, a 92% chance of a rate hike in December. Traders scaled back their expectations of a rate hike in October after the comments by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh last week.
Indian gold demand has recovered following a recent fall in prices with dealers last week charging a premium for the first time in over three months. Demand has increased for the festive season and as wedding season is about to commence. Dealers were charging a premium of up to $7 an ounce, while a week earlier they were charging a discount of up to $6 an ounce. Physical gold supplies are restricted and imports fell to $1.8 billion in September from $9.6 billion in the same month last year. In China, gold premiums were in the range of $4 to $13 an ounce with some cautious buying in the spot market.
Silver: Riding the Same Rate Relief Silver also appreciated on easing rate hike expectations. Ajay Kedia of Kedia Advisory said the metals were benefiting from short covering. Broader market trends and a decrease in crude prices are also providing some support as it eases inflation concerns. Silver is still expected to be more volatile than gold.
What Comes Next The next important economic data to be released will be PCE on October 29, a day after the Fed’s October 27-28 meeting. As expected, focus will be on the December meeting of the Federal Reserve for both metals.
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Gold Technical Analysis: XAU/USD Holds $4,176 as $4,201 Remains the Key Breakout Test
Gold – Chart As of writing, gold is near $4,184 on the 1-hour chart. What’s notable is how the price has been consolidating in a tight range of $4,176 to $4,201 during the recovery from the mid-month lows. Meanwhile, the rising trendline is reaching the $4,176 support, and both moving averages are located underneath. The faster of the two has crossed above the slower, which is constructive for the short-term outlook.
The initial resistance is at $4,201, a level that has been holding rejections over the past few sessions. A break above that would put $4,218 and then $4,240 in sight. Below, a breakdown of $4,176 and the trendline would open up support at $4,152, and then $4,132 and $4,111.
RSI is at about 57, which is above its signal line at 54. This shows a marginally positive but non-accelerating momentum. While the price of gold is trading above $4,176, a slightly bullish bias is justified. The break of $4,201 would validate the bullish bias. A close below $4,152 would change the structure to bearish.
Silver Technical Analysis: XAG/USD Holds $57.39 as $57.86 Trendline Resistance Caps the Rebound
Silver – Chart Silver is trading around $57.61 on the 1 hour chart. What stands out is that the bounce off of $55.41 has run into a key confluence at $57.86. This level is a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, and is confluent with the longer term descending trendline from the early October highs. Price has been rejected at this trendline twice. Silver is trading above the faster moving average, but remains below the slower moving average at $58.85.
I’m looking for a break of $57.86 to open the door to $58.70, and then the $59.37 swing high. Support is at $57.39, the 50% retracement, $56.92 at the 38.2% retracement, and $56.34 at the 23.6% retracement.
RSI is at 55, and turning lower, however, it remains above the 51 signal line. This means that, while momentum is fading, it is still net positive. I remain neutral while Silver trades below the descending trendline. A break above the $57.86 level confirms a bullish breakout. A break below the $56.92 level favors a deeper correction.
XAU/USDGold reached quite strong trend line resistance at 4185/4190 and made a high for the day halfway to the next trend line resistance of 4210/4220.
The shorts worked on the slide to the first target of 4170/4165, with a low for the pullback at 4156.
Despite the volatility and initial heavy decline from Monday to Wednesday, Gold only closed down $20 on Friday, from Sunday's open.
Which means we've still barely moved in this erratic, random sideways consolidation since the 29th of September.
While I am waiting for a breakout and hopefully the start of a trend (even if it's only short term) we are still finding profitable trades.
We also know when to stay out of the market and be patient, when there are no opportunities, like we did on Thursday.
I have a more negative bias at the start of this week and so a break below 4150 can target 4130, perhaps as far as 4110.
We could even see 4100 and I would not rule out a retest of last week's low and the October low at 4075 /4065.
We do have strong support at 4075/4065 and longs need to stop below 4055.
The only sell level I have for you today is at resistance of 4210/4220.
Gold is struggling to sustain the renewed uptick, remaining below $4,200 in Monday’s Asian trades. The bright metal is torn between dip-buying in the US Dollar (USD) and renewed geopolitical optimism, which has sent Oil prices southward.
Gold lacks bullish conviction?Despite fresh attempts to resume last week’s recovery from weekly troughs of $4,074, Gold seems to lack bullish conviction as the USD draws support from broad weakness in the Euro (EUR) amid civil unrest spreading across the European Union (EU).
On Saturday, France witnessed one of the most violent days of unrest in years, leaving public buildings burned, hundreds of shops destroyed and looted and at least 2,400 people arrested in cities across the country, per The Guardian.
The French protests spread to Lisbon, Portugal, and Milan, Italy, as tensions over housing and living costs intensify. Italy’s Prime Minister, Giorgia Meloni, said that while demonstrating was a right, “setting our cities ablaze is not”
However, falling US Treasury bond yields and Oil prices continue to pressure the Greenback, limiting its upside and thereby keeping Gold bulls hopeful.
After US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Kevin Warsh’s silence on the central bank’s interest rate path, an October rate hike is almost priced out, which weighs negatively on the US Treasury bond yields across the curve, supporting the non-yielding bullion.
Warsh delivered a moderately constructive but cautious message, with a 5.6/10 FXS Speechtracker score that is slightly softer relative to the historical average of 6.1/10, underscoring a less forceful tone than usual. The acknowledgment of being “over-scarred” by the Global Financial Crisis highlights a persistent risk-averse bias even as Warsh emphasizes structural growth and an investment surge driven by “good policies,” suggesting no rush to pre-commit ahead of the October and December meetings. Warsh’s focus on AI as a near-term demand catalyst with uncertain employment effects, alongside plans for an AI field hearing and new Fed task forces, points to a central bank that sees technology as both a support for data-dependent policy and a potential source of new tail risks.
The retreat in Oil prices from monthly highs, after US President Donald Trump waived sanctions and tariffs on Russian energy to keep Moscow in Ukraine peace talks, eases inflation fears and Fed tightening expectations.
Trump’s waiver on Russian energy offset an Iranian report that a tanker exploded after hitting a naval mine in the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has become increasingly critical of Trump’s actions as the US has piled pressure on Ukraine to cease striking refineries in Russia and end the war quickly on Putin’s terms.
Gold is also holding ground following a slew of upbeat Chinese economic activity data. China’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rose to 4.5% year-over-year (YoY) in the third quarter from 4.3% prior, beating estimates for 4.4% growth.
The country’s annual Retail Sales and Industrial Production climbed 1.1% and 5.5%, respectively, in September, exceeding market expectations. Note that China is the world’s largest Gold consumer.
Against fresh optimism on the geopolitical front and strong Chinese data, Gold traders will likely pay close attention to the civil crisis in Europe and USD price action, as the US economic docket remains data-empty on Monday amid the Fed’s ‘blackout period’ before the October 27-28 monetary policy meeting.
Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart
In the daily chart, XAU/USD trades at $4,176.14, holding beneath a dense band of moving average resistance that keeps the near-term bias tilted lower. Spot is currently capped by the 21-day simple moving average (SMA) at roughly $4,191, with the 100-day SMA higher near $4,239 and the 50-day SMA even further overhead around $4,327, all reinforcing a corrective tone after the recent pullback. The 14-day Relative Strength Index at 46 sits just below the neutral 50 line, hinting at subdued bullish momentum and suggesting that rallies may struggle while price remains under these key averages.
On the downside, the next meaningful technical cushion emerges toward the prior rising trend-line break zone around $4,000, where buyers may attempt to rebuild a floor if selling pressure resumes. On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the 21-day SMA near $4,191, followed by the 100-day SMA at about $4,239; a daily close above these would be needed to ease immediate bearish pressure, while a sustained move through the 50-day SMA at $4,327 would start to undermine the current corrective phase, with the longer-term 200-day SMA higher up at $4,520 acting as a major cap for the broader uptrend.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Gold and silver find support from falling Treasury yields, but persistent inflation and Fed rate hike risks could limit their recovery.
Gold (XAU) rose towards $4,183 in early Asian trading on Monday as US Treasury yields continue to drop. Concerns about AI funding needs and shipping risk in the Middle East pushed investors towards government bonds.
Oil prices also eased after Trump waived some Russian sanctions, but the policy remains under review. However, Brent oil trades above $108 and leaves the cost of energy elevated. In my view, the drop in Treasury yields could support further gains in both metals. But another surge in oil could revive fears of inflation and weaken the recovery.
The rate hikes by the Fed remain the main threat to the gold and silver outlook. US inflation increased to 3.7% in September from 3.4% in August. Gasoline prices jumped 9.1% during the month. The market expects a pause in October, but expectations for a hike in December still remain at 85%.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh gave no clear signal about the next move. The high rates could strengthen the US dollar and renew pressure on both metals. Silver (XAG) could face additional pressure if the high cost of borrowing weakens industrial demand. This leaves room for a rebound but a strong recovery needs further relief in yields and the US dollar.
Gold Price Forecast: Recovery Faces Resistance at $4,200–$4,250 The daily chart for spot gold shows that the price is still trading at the support of the triangle pattern that has been forming since May 2025. The price remains below the 50- and 200-day SMAs, and the RSI remains below the midline. This suggests a negative trend and indicates that prices remain under pressure.
The immediate resistance in the gold price remains the $4,200 region. A break above $4,200 will likely push the price towards $4,330. However, the gold price needs to break above the $4,520 area at the 200-day SMA to indicate that the bottom is in and open the way for a strong rally in the gold market.
The weekly chart for spot gold also shows that the price is consolidating below the ascending trend line that stretches from the October 2023 lows. However, the price must break below $3,950 to indicate a strong drop and a deeper correction. However, if the price recovers successfully above the ascending trend line at $4,300, it will likely confirm a positive trend and open the way for further upside towards the $5,000 level.
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The 4-hour chart for spot gold also shows that $4,200 remains the key resistance in the short term. The price must break above the $4,200-$4,250 zone to signal a recovery in the short term. However, a break below the ascending trend line at $4,070 will likely push prices further down towards the $3,900-$4,000 area.
Silver Price Forecast: Break Above $64 Could Open Path to $72 The daily chart for spot silver shows that the price produced a rebound from the $55 support zone. The price must break above the $64 area to open the way for further upside towards the 200-day SMA at $72. A recovery above $72 is required to push prices towards $89.
On the other hand, a break below $55 will open the way for a further drop towards the $45 support area. The RSI also entered oversold territory as the price reached the $55 support. However, a break below $55 will likely push the RSI into oversold territory. If the silver price continues to drop, it will likely mark a long-term bottom at the $45 support zone.
The 4-hour chart for spot silver also shows strong consolidation in prices above the $55 area. The price remains between $55 and $63. A break of either of these levels is required to push prices in the next direction.
A break below $55 may push prices towards the $50 area, as indicated by the lower boundary of the descending wedge pattern. However, a break above $63 is required to push prices up to the $72 region.
What to Watch Next Gold and silver prices could extend their rebound if Treasury yields continue to drop. However, high oil prices and the risk of further rate hikes by the Fed could limit gains by keeping inflation pressures elevated. Gold needs to break above $4,200-$4,250 to strengthen the recovery, while silver needs to clear $63-$64. On the downside, a break below $3,950 in gold or $55 in silver could open the way for deeper losses. Both metals need further relief in yields and the US dollar to build a stronger recovery.
Read more: Falling Yields Fuel Rebound in Gold and Silver Despite Hot PPI
Muhammad Umair is a finance MBA and engineering PhD. As a seasoned financial analyst specializing in currencies and precious metals, he combines his multidisciplinary academic background to deliver a data-driven, contrarian perspective. As founder of Gold Predictors, he leads a team providing advanced market analytics, quantitative research, and refined precious metals trading strategies.
Daily Spot Gold (XAU/USD) Spot Gold fell late in the session on Friday after the buying dried up at $4,199.08 earlier in the session. The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through the swing top at $4,217.40 will change the main trend to up. A move through the secondary higher bottom at $4,073.55 will reaffirm the downtrend and likely lead to a test of the main bottom at $4,066.54. Taking out $4,066.54 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.
A 50% support cluster at $4,145.48 to $4,141.97 appears to be the key factor controlling the near-term direction. If it fails, sellers are likely to press the market into the two main bottoms. If buyers can sustain the move over this area, then they could take a shot at $4,217.40 and possibly turn the main trend higher.
I don’t see a quick breakout developing after a change in trend to up because of a resistance cluster at $4,217.40 to $4,233.10. Overtaking this could create some upside volatility with potential targets at a 61.8% level at $4,272.41, an intermediate 50% level at $4,319.60 and the 50-day moving average at $4,331.35.
Although the main trend is down and the market is below the 50-day moving average, the formation of the two bottoms at $4,073.55 and $4,066.54 suggests there may be some passive bidding defending against a washout to the downside. However, until buyers start aggressively taking out offers, the market could continue to build a support base.
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See all Gold forecastsDaily US Dollar Index (DXY) The Dollar Index fell 0.22% Friday to 101.779 and was headed for its first weekly decline in more than a month. The 10-year Treasury yield finished near 5.08%, while the two-year yield slipped to 4.715%.
Those moves gave gold a better backdrop than it had after the inflation reports earlier in the week. Buyers pushed Spot Gold to $4,199.08 and December futures to $4,220.40. Neither contract could stay there.
That was the Friday trade. The dollar gave up some ground. Yields stopped climbing. Gold bounced, but it did not attract enough new buying to get through the nearby tops.
The split between the two contracts showed the same hesitation. December futures finished higher, while Spot Gold settled slightly lower after the late-session pullback.
What to Watch The December rate decision remains the problem for gold buyers. A pause in October took pressure out of the immediate trade, but the hot inflation reports and December hike odds are keeping the metal from turning a softer dollar into a sustained rally.
Spot Gold has a support cluster at $4,145.48 to $4,141.97 and two main bottoms below it at $4,073.55 and $4,066.54. The main trend remains down, but Friday’s action showed buyers are still defending the lower part of the range. They need to take out $4,217.40 to change the main trend.
December Comex Gold futures held above their $4,175.10 and $4,166.80 pivots into the close. The $4,242.30 swing top is the next chart decision, with $4,095.00 marking the secondary higher bottom under the market.
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Gold remains at risk of staging a deeper correction. Though the dollar has eased back a bit along with yields, both still remain fundamentally supported. The US 10-year yield holds support around 5% and a late surge in oil prices on Friday revives inflation concerns. In fact, both precious metals reversed lower on Friday after initially extending Thursday's broad-based recovery, a sign that the sellers have not gone away. With crude elevated and yields still near recent highs, the risk to the near-term gold forecast is tilted to the downside, although central bank buying could limit the damage.
The US 10-year yield is testing former resistance between 5.00% and 5.05% as support. Crude added around $3 late on Friday as concerns over a potential US attack on Iran resurfaced. Central bank demand, including from the People's Bank of China, could provide a floor under gold. Watch the Full Video
Oil rally revives the risk premium Oil prices surged in the final hours of Friday's session, with crude adding around $3 as concerns over a potential US attack on Iran resurfaced. With no obvious new catalyst in the headlines, the move appears to reflect lingering anxiety over the possibility of US military action, particularly after reports that the Pentagon was preparing for potential ‘mother of all bombs’ strikes on Iran.
Donald Trump did not directly push back against those reports when given the opportunity, although he has previously said the US would not attack Iran before the midterm elections. That leaves markets trying to reconcile two conflicting signals, while the risk premium in crude remains elevated. Iran itself could also seek to escalate tensions, since higher oil prices and the squeeze on global consumers could give Tehran additional leverage, even at considerable cost.
Whatever the explanation, the oil move is increasingly spilling into other markets. Higher crude prices reinforce inflation concerns and complicate the outlook for interest rates. The Nasdaq suffered one of its worst sessions of the year, falling around 2.2%. Any further gains for oil could be particularly problematic for equities, and it could also limit the downside in bond yields, creating a more favourable backdrop for the dollar and a difficult one for gold.
Bond yields find a floor around 5% The US 10-year yield is meanwhile holding its own above a major area of support between 5.00% and 5.05%, which acted as resistance until the big breakout on 23 September. The pullback in yields earlier in the week, despite hotter-than-expected CPI and PPI readings, raised questions over whether yields had topped out. I don't think they have. With no change in the underlying macro backdrop, the path of least resistance for yields remains higher, and a renewed climb from this former resistance area could allow the dollar to make a comeback at gold's expense.
With a light US calendar next week, oil and Treasury yields are likely to dominate the outlook for the dollar and gold.
Central bank buying could put a floor under gold That said, the fundamental backdrop is more complicated than the short-term price action suggests. China provides the main macro event on Monday. The world's second-largest economy grew 4.3% year on year in the second quarter, slightly below expectations, while third-quarter growth is forecast to edge up to 4.4%. Industrial production, retail sales and employment data are also due. A weak set of numbers would probably weigh on metals, particularly industrial metals such as copper and silver, and gold could also come under pressure if concerns over Chinese demand intensify.
For gold, however, Chinese demand is only part of the story. Continued buying by the People's Bank of China and other central banks remains an important structural support, and there is little evidence so far that official-sector demand is about to disappear in the final months of the year. If purchases remain strong, investors and speculators could attempt to front-run that demand through ETFs, spot and futures markets. In other words, while the near-term technical picture has deteriorated, central bank buying could provide an important floor under gold.
Technical gold outlook and key levels to watch From a technical analysis point of view, gold staged a decent recovery from key support around $4,075 to $4,100, the base of the rally that began in early August, before reversing lower on Friday. Friday's bearish close suggests the sellers are still active, and silver's collapse through key support at $59 earlier in the week is a warning that gold could follow.
Source: TradingView.com For gold, a move above the trend line would be a constructive signal, but the area of resistance above it near $4,223-$4,282 also needs to be taken out before a bottom can be confirmed. Until then, XAUUSD could face another bout of selling early next week, especailly if oil remains elevated and Treasury yields recover.
Consolidation remains the name of the game until gold clears resistance or loses its August base.
Frequently Asked Questions Why could higher oil prices weigh on gold? Higher crude prices reinforce inflation concerns and could limit the downside in bond yields, which in turn could help the dollar recover at gold's expense.
How could China's GDP data affect gold? Weak Chinese data would probably weigh on metals, particularly copper and silver, and gold could also suffer if concerns over Chinese demand intensify.
Could central bank buying support gold prices? Continued purchases by the People's Bank of China and other central banks remain an important structural support. If that demand holds up, it could cushion gold even if the dollar strengthens or yields rise.
-- Written by Fawad Razaqzada, Market Analyst | Follow Fawad on Twitter @Trader_F_R
Spot gold weekly chart shows larger trend structure Weekly Structure Hints at a Trend Reversal The weekly chart provides a perspective that is less apparent on the daily timeframe. This week formed a higher weekly high and higher weekly low, signaling an attempted reversal in the bearish correction. Although the breakout was not confirmed by a daily or weekly close above last week’s high of $4,208, it suggests improving underlying demand and leaves open the possibility of another attempt to break above the two-week consolidation range.
Breakout Triggers Define the Bullish Case A move above the 20-day moving average would provide an initial sign of strength and could attract additional bullish momentum. However, a decisive advance above the recent lower swing high of $4,226 is needed to trigger a bullish reversal signal in the daily trend structure. Another earlier sign of strength would be seen on a rise above this week’s high of $4,217, as a rise above it would signal renewed strength in the weekly advance. A sustained move above the relevant swing high would also reinforce the potential for a new advance from the $4,066 support area, following the initial recovery from the early-August consolidation low.
ABCD Pattern Points Toward $4,821 An upside breakout would open the way toward a measured-move target near $4,821 (D), projected by the rising ABCD pattern on the chart. Price symmetry for the two upswings converges at that level, making it a potential resistance zone. A decisive breakout above this target, however, would signal continued strength and expose the next upside resistance zone. Until gold clears those near-term resistance levels, the ability to hold support above $4,066 remains central to the potential recovery.
If you’d like to know more about how to trade gold and silver, please visit our educational area.
Gold Remains Stuck Near Resistance At $4160 – $4180
Gold 161026 Daily Chart
Gold pulls back as traders focus on the strong rally in the oil markets and react to rising Treasury yields.
Oil prices gained 3.5% as traders focused on rising tensions in the Middle East. From a big picture point of view, oil markets prepare for another round of war between U.S. and Iran. President Trump has recently said that he would not use nuclear against Iran but could use the “Mother of all Bombs”. There are no signs indicating that U.S. – Iran talks have any chance for success in the near term, so traders prepare for escalation. High oil prices boost inflation and may force the Fed to raise rates aggressively.
FedWatch Tool indicates that there is a 17.2% probability that Fed will raise rates at the next meeting in October. However, traders are convinced that the central bank will raise rates in December and January.
Treasury yields have started to rebound after yesterday’s strong pullback. The yield of 2-year Treasuries settled near the 4.75% level, while the yield of 10-year Treasuries climbed above the 5.10% level. Rising Treasury yields served as a negative catalyst for gold markets in today’s trading session.
U.S. dollar moved lower against a broad basket of currencies as pullback continued. Howeve, weaker dollar did not provide sufficient support to gold prices.
Gold continues its attempts to settle above the resistance level at $4160 – $4180. In case gold manages to settle above the $4180 level, it will head towards the next resistance, which is located in the $4300 – $4320 range. RSI is in the moderate territory, so there is plenty of room to gain momentum in case the right catalysts emerge.
Silver Pulls Back As Gold/Silver Ratio Rebounds
Silver 161026 Daily Chart
Silver moved lower as gold/silver ratio climbed towards the 73.00 level. In case gold/silver ratio settles above 73.00, it will head towards the 75.00 level, which will be bearish for silver.
Currently, silver is trying to settle back below the support at $56.00 – $57.00. In case this attempt is successful, silver will move towards the next support level at $51.00 – $52.00.
On the upside, silver needs to stay above the $57.00 level to have a chance to gain upside momentum in the near term. In this case, silver will head towards the resistance level at $61.00 – $62.00.
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Platinum Moves Away From Session Highs
Platinum 161026 Daily Chart
Platinum was mostly flat as traders focused on the situation in the oil markets. Palladium markets were down by -1.7%, which was bearish for platinum.
From the technical point of view, platinum made an attempt to settle above the support level at $1600 – $1620 but lost momentum and pulled back. In case platinum declines below the $1600 level, it will head towards the next support level at $1520 – $1540.
On the upside, a move above the $1650 level will push platinum towards the resistance level at $1700 – $1720.
If you’d like to know more about how to trade gold and silver, please visit our educational area.
Gold (XAU/USD) started the week under bearish pressure but reversed its direction in the second half as United States (US) Treasury bond yields declined sharply. The economic calendar will not feature high-impact data releases next week and the Federal Reserve (Fed) will be in the blackout period, possibly limiting the precious metal’s volatility in the near term.
Gold finds support as US bond yields declineGold edged lower on Monday as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East escalated further following news of an unidentified projectile hitting a passenger terminal at King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh. The Houthis swiftly claimed the attacks, saying they were a response to “Saudi aggression.” Nonetheless, with US bond markets remaining closed in observance of the Columbus Day holiday, XAU/USD’s volatility remained limited.
Ahead of Wednesday’s critical September inflation data from the US, the market action turned subdued and Gold closed marginally lower.
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that annual inflation, as measured by the change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), climbed to 3.7% in September from 3.4% in August. This print came in above the market expectation of 3.6%. On a monthly basis, the CPI and the core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, increased by 0.6% and 0.3%, respectively.
With the immediate reaction to hot inflation prints, the probability of a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike climbed to about 40%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. As a result, the USD gathered strength and XAU/USD came under bearish pressure, losing more than 1% on Wednesday to close near $4,100.
However, Gold gathered recovery momentum on Thursday and gained 1.6% to erase a large portion of its weekly losses as US T-bond yields declined sharply. Bloomberg reported that China seems to be moving US securities to non-US custodian banks in other countries, masking its role in financing US deficits. The report further added that Canada’s holdings of US debt securities have grown to nearly $600 billion of Treasuries and bonds despite a tariff war, indicating that China has shifted its holdings to Canada.
While speaking at an International Monetary Fund (IMF) event during the early trading hours of the Asian session on Friday, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh refrained from hinting at the possibility of a rate hike in October. In turn, US T-bond yields stretched lower with the CME FedWatch Tool’s probability of a rate hike in October falling to about 10% and allowed Gold to extend its recovery toward $4,200.
Fed Chair Warsh’s speech scored 5.6/10 on the FXS Speechtracker, below the historical average of 6.1/10. His admission of being “over-scarred from the global financial crisis” underscored a persistent risk-aware bias even as Warsh highlighted structural growth and an investment surge driven by “good policies,” and stressed that upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings will be the “crystalizing moment” for decisions on output, employment and inflation.
Warsh’s focus on AI as a near-term demand catalyst and a tool to strengthen data confidence, alongside attention to negative tailside risks, pointed to a cautious optimism that keeps the Fed open to tightening while avoiding pre-commitment on the policy path.
Gold investors will stay focused on bond marketsThe Fed will be in its blackout period ahead of the October 27-28 policy meeting, and officials won’t be commenting on monetary policy. The only noteworthy data in the US economic calendar will be the preliminary S&P Global Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) figures for October, scheduled to be released on Friday. Unless either of the headline PMIs unexpectedly drop into contraction territory below 50, the market reaction is likely to be muted.
Hence, investors will continue to pay close attention to Treasury bond yields and headlines coming out of the Middle East. In case US yields decline further, Gold could attract buyers and extend its recovery. On the other hand, the precious metal could have a hard time gathering bullish momentum in case bond yields rebound or stabilize.
In the meantime, a leg higher in crude Oil prices could feed into inflation concerns and cap Gold’s upside, even if bond yields continue to edge lower.
Commenting on Gold's near-term outlook, FX strategists at OCBC say they “remain cautiously constructive, particularly if the pullback in long-end yields and the USD extends,” but stress that the latest upswing in the metal is “another reminder that Gold is trading the bond market’s reaction to US data rather than the data itself.” They also caution that “underlying inflation pressures remain elevated, and the recent decline in yields has been partly driven by risk aversion rather than improving inflation fundamentals,” suggesting the current support for Gold may prove fragile if bond market dynamics reverse.
Meanwhile, TD Securities analysts note that the precious metals complex has received "much-needed support" as interest rates and US Dollar strength have moderated following the initial surge after the CPI release.
They explain that alongside this shift in macro conditions, "macro discretionary positions remain elevated, while ETF inflows and central bank demand also remain strong." Analysts further argue that these combined flows "have ultimately offered strong support for [G]old," and add that they expect them to "remain robust, especially in the $4,000-4,100/oz region."
Gold technical analysis: A bullish reversal is yet to be confirmedThe Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the daily chart stays below 50 despite the bullish action seen in the second half of the week, and Gold continues to trade below the 20-day, 50-day, 100-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA), reflecting buyers’ hesitancy.
The immediate resistance is located in the $4,190-$4,240 region, where the static level meets the 20-day and the 100-day SMAs. Once Gold clears this hurdle, the Fibonacci 23.6% retracement of the March-August downtrend and the 50-day SMA could form the next resistance area at $4,300-$4,330 ahead of $4,510-$4,520 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement, 200-day SMA, ascending trend line).
On the downside, a static support level seems to have formed at $4,100 ahead of $4,000-$3,970 (static level, round level, end-point of March-August downtrend).
Gold daily chart
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
The bond purchases coming out of Washington say two different things depending on who is listening. Stock traders read lower financing costs. Gold buyers read that government debt needs more support. The Dow Jones vs. Gold argument rests on that split, and this week's market movement showed why pessimism about fiscal policy doesn't always beat rising yields.
When the Treasury expanded its long-dated buybacks, that trade got a boost at first. But by September 29, yields were rising once more while gold bounced off a steep selloff. The US30/XAU comparison now depends on two questions: does the intervention produce durable relief, and do investors believe in the process itself?
The rescue has a credibility costThe World Gold Council’s August analysis recorded lower yields and a softer dollar, with gold rallying 3% around the August 19 buyback announcement. It also drew a line between Treasury intervention and actual yield-curve control. Making the market run more smoothly does not equal a commitment to cap bond yields.
This distinction carries weight. Buybacks give investors holding older Treasuries another exit. They leave persistent deficits untouched and promise nothing about future demand. So the fiscal reading becomes a market call: some traders see improved liquidity, others see signs that absorbing government debt is becoming harder.
Companies in the Dow would welcome a lasting drop in borrowing costs, easing refinancing strain and supporting equity values. The same move can support bullion by strengthening demand for an asset outside Washington’s debt promises. Both can rise initially, while the Dow Jones vs. gold correlation can shift as financing costs, earnings expectations, and demand for monetary protection change.
This week, yields challenged both sidesThe DJIA chart shows the buyback expansion hasn't protected stocks from renewed pressure in the Treasury market. On September 29, the DJIA price ended at 51,349.92, a 0.26% decline. Ten-year Treasury yields hit 5.293% during the session, and 30-year yields reached 5.6206%, as Reuters’ equity market report shows. Higher borrowing costs still weigh on Dow Jones performance even after the expansion.
The gold price chart muddies the fiscal warning as well. Spot bullion changed hands at $4,142.89 per troy ounce at 17:55 GMT on September 29, climbing back after a nearly 4% drop the day before. Reuters’ gold report tied that selloff to a firmer dollar, higher yields, and bets on more Federal Reserve tightening.
That reversal is why gold price volatility matters here. Fiscal anxiety can support bullion over time, while higher yields can still exert downward pressure by increasing the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset. A bullish gold price prediction built only around buybacks overlooks that conflict.
US30 vs XAU: Relief must outlast the announcementThe Versus Trade US30 XAU framework lines up two different reactions to American financial policy. A sustained decline in yields plus resilient earnings and a stable dollar would make the Dow's relative case stronger. Falling yields paired with dollar weakness and persistent fiscal distrust could tilt toward bullion.
People typing "Which is better, the Dow Jones or Gold?" or “Should I invest in Dow Jones or Gold?" are turning a conditional contest into a permanent either/or. This week gives no verdict like that. Even a term like “gold price investment” hides the difference between a long-term allocation and a short-term response to policy.
For anyone trying to trade Dow vs gold, the signal that counts is if the relief outlives the announcement. This week's gold price forecast still depends on yields and the dollar. Washington can step in as a buyer for older bonds. It can't buy investor confidence on the same timetable.
Gold tests its $4,000–$4,200 demand zone as falling Treasury yields offer potential relief, while persistent inflation keeps the recovery uncertain.
Gold vs Yields
Gold has a fundamental assessment with a notable contrast. Yesterday’s stronger PPI report was followed by the daily Treasury observation of lower nominal and real yields. This evidence supports a discussion of competing forces in the gold market, but it does not establish that PPI caused the yield decline.
The U.S. Treasury’s 10-year constant maturity par yield fell to 2.78% on Thursday from 2.84% on Wednesday. These are daily estimates from the inflation-protected yield curve rather than live quotes, but they do give you an idea as to how the bond market is behaving.
The interpretation that I take away from this is that the lower real yield potentially reduces the opportunity cost of holding gold. An investor comparing bullion with inflation-protected government debt now faces a slightly smaller quoted real return on that asset. The level remains positive, however, so the interest-income competition has eased rather than completely disappeared.
The U.S. 10-year real yield fell from 2.95% on October 5 to 2.78% on October 15, following a gradual decline in mid-October.
Gold’s relationship with yields will vary at times, as liquidity and demand for protection can change. Nominal rates also declined. The 2-year Treasury par yield fell from 4.82% to the 4.77% level, and the 10-year fell from 5.19% to 5.10% between October 14 and October 15. The broad decline differs from the mixed maturity movement seen during the previous day. It is a change in the financing backdrop, but does not necessarily identify a single cause.
Inflation remains the counterweight. BLS published September PPI on Thursday, with final demand prices increasing 1.3% monthly after seasonal adjustment and 6.3% annually before adjustment. The measure excluding food, energy, and trade services rose 0.5% monthly and 5.0% annually. September readings are preliminary, and earlier months were revised.
For gold, persistent producer-price pressure can support interest in purchasing-power protection while complicating expectations of monetary easing. These channels can coexist at the same time and have been seen from time to time in the markets. The question now is whether future inflation pushes real financing costs higher or whether demand for protection remains strong enough to outweigh them.
The real-yield measure also needs to be distinguished from a simple subtraction of current CPI inflation from a nominal bond yield. The Treasury series comes from inflation-protected securities at a fixed maturity. This makes it a useful financial benchmark, but it is neither a forecast of gold’s return nor a complete measure of every investor’s expected purchasing-power gain.
The Wednesday CPI release provides separate consumer-price evidence. September headline CPI increased 0.6% monthly, seasonally adjusted, and 3.7% annually unadjusted. Core CPI rose 0.3% monthly and 2.6% annually. Producer and consumer prices cover different baskets and transactions in the U.S. economy, so their rates are not added together, nor are they treated as interchangeable.
The last Federal Reserve decision was the September 16, 25-basis-point increase in its target range to 3.75% to 4%. The statement also emphasized elevated inflation and restoring price stability. That existing decision is distinct from any expectation about the next meeting scheduled for October 27 and 28.
Gold Price Forecast
Every new Gold analysis as it publishes, today's technical signal and key levels, live price — on one page.
See all Gold forecastsAs things stand right now, the Fed funds watch tool still believes that the Federal Reserve will be on hold for this month. Import prices are due today in New York, followed by industrial production. Neither has massive influence on the market, but they become part of the bigger puzzle for figuring out inflationary pressures.
The more supportive combination would be a continued easing in real yields alongside evidence that inflation is contained without a sharp deterioration in economic activity. A renewed rise in real yields would challenge that interpretation. If inflation and activity send conflicting signals, gold may face competing protection and financing-cost influences.
Technical Analysis
Gold futures trade near $4,198, testing $4,200 resistance while holding above $4,000 support. The $4,288 and $4,319 EMAs remain overhead.
Gold is testing the top of a major demand zone that extends from $4,000 to $4,200. This is a market that remains very noisy and very choppy, but it is in an area that, if yields can ease a bit, could be enticing for bulls.
Short-term pullbacks continue to look like short-term buying opportunities, but a breach below the $4,000 level would, in fact, have me thinking things get much more bearish.
Gold (XAU/USD) heads north for the second consecutive day on Friday, trading near $4,180, with bulls aiming for the $4,230 area, the top of October’s trading range. Precious metals have been boosted by lower US Treasury yields and dovish comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials this week, which have undermined speculative support for the Greenback.
US data released on Thursday showed that September's Producer Price Index (PPI) accelerated beyond expectations in September, following an overshoot consumer inflation report in the previous day. Also on Thursday, retail consumption showed a surprising resilience in the face of escalating prices.
The data, however, failed to lift the US Dollar as market expectations of a Fed interest rate hike in October remain low. A string of Fed officials suggested that the bank will stand pat at its next meeting, awaiting more insight into the economic impact of September’s interest rate hike.
The Federal Reserve Chairman, Kevin Warsh, spoke at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forum in Bangkok earlier on Friday. Warsh praised the resilience of the US economy and reaffirmed the central bank’s commitment to fight inflation, but failed to provide any fresh hints about the bank’s near-term path.
Technical Analysis: Key resistance at the $4,230 area comes into focus
XAU/USD trades at $4,179, maintaining a bullish near-term bias with bulls aiming for the top of the last three weeks' horizontal range, in the $4,230 area. The 4-hour Relative Strength Index (14) is hovering in positive territory near 57, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains firmly above zero, hinting at moderate upside pressure.
Gold might find resistance at the $4,200 round area, ahead of the key $4,230 (October 2 high). A successful break of this level confirms a bullish reversal, aiming for the September 25 high at $4,315.
On the downside, initial support is at the intraday low near $4,150 ahead of the range bottom of $4,070. A bearish reaction below here negates the bullish view and increases pressure towards the late July, early August lows around the $4,000 psychological area.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Gold is being influenced simultaneously by demand for safe-haven assets, expectations for Federal Reserve interest rates and US dollar movements. In the short term, it matters whether fresh US inflation data prompt a more hawkish stance from the US central bank.
Uncertainty remains over the Fed’s next move. US inflation accelerated to 3.7% year-on-year in September, while core inflation stood at 2.6%. Meanwhile, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh gave no clear signal of another rate hike in October, easing investors’ concerns about further tightening.
Tensions in the Middle East and concerns over public finances are supporting demand for safe-haven assets. At the same time, rising oil prices could sustain inflationary pressures and complicate any move by central banks towards policy easing.
The fundamental backdrop for XAU/USD on 16 October is mixed. A weaker US dollar, lower bond yields and ETF demand support gold, while rising US inflation and the risk of a Fed rate hike limit further gains. The focus remains on fresh signals from the Fed and movements in government bond yields.
Technical analysisOn the H4 chart, gold completed a downward wave at 4,071 USD before forming an upward correction towards 4,184 USD. The market is currently continuing to consolidate below resistance at 4,231 USD. The main trend remains downward, but local structure allows the next upward move towards 4,220 USD. A close above this level would open the way for a move towards 4,231 USD. A break below the range would open the way for a decline towards support at 4,123 USD, with scope for the downward wave to continue towards 4,060 USD and 4,022 USD. The MACD indicator shows recovering positive momentum, but the signal line remains below zero, indicating that the current rise is corrective.
On the H1 chart, the market broke above 4,145 USD and developed upward momentum towards resistance at 4,185 USD. The price is now consolidating near 4,175 USD while attempting to continue higher. A close above 4,185 USD would open the way towards 4,220 USD, where buyers are expected to face a test. An alternative scenario envisages a return to 4,145 USD, followed by a decline towards 4,123 USD. A break below this support would increase the likelihood of a downward wave developing towards 4,060 USD. The Stochastic oscillator’s signal lines are above 50 and pointing up, confirming buyers’ short-term advantage. At the same time, the indicator’s approach to overbought territory increases the likelihood of a short-term correction before the next move. The priority scenario remains a test of the upper boundary of the current range, followed by an assessment of the market’s reaction to resistance.
ConclusionGold is navigating a mixed backdrop shaped by safe-haven demand, Fed uncertainty and US dollar movements. While US inflation accelerated to 3.7% in September, Fed Chair Warsh’s lack of a clear signal on an October rate hike has eased concerns about further tightening, supporting gold. A weaker US dollar, lower bond yields and ETF demand further support the metal, though rising oil prices and lingering inflation risks limit further gains. Technically, gold is in an upward correction within a broader downtrend, with resistance at 4,185 USD and 4,220 USD, and support at 4,145 USD and 4,123 USD. A break above resistance could open the way towards 4,231 USD, while a break below support would open the way towards 4,060 USD and 4,022 USD. The near-term direction will depend on Fed signals and movements in bond yields.
Gold collapsed $100 when the CPI number was released on Wednesday and despite a very strong PPI number yesterday, gold recovered all of the losses.
September CPI rose 0.6% m/m and 3.7% y/y, PPI surged 1.3% m/m, and retail sales jumped 0.8% versus 0.3% expected.
I don't understand why gold has recovered so strongly, especially as Treasury yields remain elevated, with the 10-year around 5.19%–5.27% and the 30-year near 5.5%–5.67%.
But I learned many years ago to stop trying to make sense of the market!!
There is quite strong trend line resistance at 4185/4190 and also at 4210/4220.
Perhaps I could suggest selling a small amount at each level with a stop above 4230.
If we reverse again as indeed we keep doing We could fall to 4170/4165 and 4130, even 4110 is not out of the question.
With the way the market has been reacting this week we could even see 4100 and I would not rule out a retest of this week's and the October low at 4075 /4065.
So the risk should be worth the reward... I could suggest scaling out gradually and trailing stops, in the hope of capturing a big move before the weekend.
I'm only guessing but maybe this is a short squeeze before a return to focusing on the fundamentals.
We do have strong support at 4075/4065 and longs need to stop below 4055.
A break above 4230 should be a decent buy signal triggering a move to 4260/ 4270 and even 4300/4305 is possible.
Gold prices rose in India on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 12,736.75 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, up compared with the INR 12,715.11 it cost on Thursday.
The price for Gold increased to INR 148,559.90 per tola from INR 148,306.60 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in INR
1 Gram
12,736.75
10 Grams
127,371.70
Tola
148,559.90
Troy Ounce
396,160.50
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold (XAU/USD) reverses a modest Asian session dip on Friday, though any meaningful appreciation seems elusive amid a modest US Dollar (USD) uptick. The energy-driven acceleration in US inflation lifted market bets for an imminent rate hike by the Federal Reserve (Fed). Moreover, US bond yields seem to have stabilized following Thursday's steep decline, which, along with escalating tensions in the Middle East, seems to underpin the safe-haven USD. This, in turn, might cap the upside for the precious metal as traders keenly await Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech.
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on Wednesday reported a broad increase in consumer prices in September as the US-Israeli war with Iran kept oil prices elevated. Adding to this, the US Producer Price Index (PPI), published on Thursday, advanced 1.3% last month, marking the largest gain since March 2022, and the yearly rate soared to 6.3%. Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the core PPI climbed 0.7% and 5% on a monthly and yearly basis, respectively, suggesting that inflation is broadening out beyond energy products. Investors, however, seem convinced that the Fed will keep rates unchanged later this month.
Meanwhile, CME Group's FedWatch Tool indicates over a 90% chance that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs again at its December policy meeting. Hence, Warsh's remarks at the Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank Group, in Bangkok, will be scrutinized for more cues about the Fed's future policy path. The outlook, in turn, will play a key role in influencing the near-term US Dollar (USD) price dynamics and provide some meaningful impetus to the precious metal. In the meantime, persistent geopolitical uncertainties turn out to be another factor acting as a tailwind for the Greenback.
In fact, the Iran-backed Houthi group carried out a deadly missile attack targeting the presidential palace, the seat of Yemen's Saudi-backed and internationally recognised government in the southern city of Aden. Adding to this, French Foreign Minister Pascal Confavreux confirmed that France has started deploying its military assets in Saudi Arabia. Adding to this, the US military developed strike plans that include 'mother of all bombs' against Iranian energy infrastructure and nuclear sites. This raises the risk of a further escalation of tensions in the Middle East, which might continue to support the USD and cap the upside for gold.
XAU/USD 4-hour chart
Technical AnalysisThe XAU/USD pair, so far, has been struggling to find acceptance above the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) and remains below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the July-August upswing. That said, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is positive and rising, hinting at strengthening upside momentum. Adding to this, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 56 suggests mildly bullish conditions without reaching overbought territory.
However, it will still be prudent to wait for a sustained move beyond the $4,200 mark and the 61.8% Fibo. retracement at $4,238 before positioning for further gains toward the next upside barriers near the 50.0% retracement at $4,325 and the 38.2% level at $4,412. On the downside, immediate support is offered by the 78.6% Fibo. retracement at $4,115, which is followed by the $4,075-$4,065 horizontal support. A convincing break below the latter would make the Gold vulnerable to challenging the Fibonacci structural floor at $3,957.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Fed FAQs Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
Key Points:Fed rate hike risks could limit the rebound in gold and silver.Gold needs to clear $4,200–$4,250 to strengthen its recovery.Silver could fall towards $50 if support at $55 fails.Gold (XAU) trades near $4,155 an ounce in early Asian trading on Friday, while silver (XAG) consolidates around $57.20 after the rebound on Thursday. The correction in the US dollar and US Treasury yields supported both metals to recover despite hot US inflation data.
The concerns about debt at artificial intelligence companies drove investors towards government bonds. This pushed the 10-year Treasury yield towards 5.09%. The low yields make gold and silver more attractive. Silver gained over 3% on Thursday after a sharp drop of 5.98% on Wednesday after the CPI data release.
This recovery still faces pressure from persistent inflation. US producer prices jumped 1.3% in September. This is the biggest monthly increase since March 2022. The annual producer inflation reached 6.3% and keeps further rate hikes by the Fed in focus. The market is now waiting for comments from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at the IMF meeting in Bangkok on Friday for clues about the next policy decision.
In my view, the rebound could extend if bond yields remain under pressure. But a firm warning from Warsh about inflation could lift expectations for rate hike and renew selling in both metals.
Gold Price Forecast: Rebound Faces $4,200–$4,250 Resistance
The daily chart for spot gold shows that the price has been consolidating in tight range between $4,220 and $4,100. This zone is highlighted in orange on the chart below. The price dropped after the US CPI data but recovered immediately towards $4,177 and now consolidates in a tight range.
These consolidations suggest that prices remain under pressure until the price clearly breaks above the $4,200 level. The 10-day moving average is now flat, which suggests neutral movement in the short term.
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A clear break below $4,100 will push prices towards the major support at $4,000. However, a break below $4,000 will push the gold price towards $3,800, which is defined by the descending trend line that stretches from the October 2025 highs.
On the other hand, a break above $4,200 will open the way for a rally towards the 50-day SMA near $4,330 and the descending trend line near $4,450. A clear break above $4,500 will likely trigger a strong rally towards $5,000.
The 4-hour chart for spot gold also shows that prices have produced a rebound from the support of the ascending trend line that stretches from the June 2026 low. The 4-hour chart also shows $4,200-$4,250 as the immediate resistance. A break below the ascending trend line near $4,080 will likely push prices towards the $3,900-$4,000 area.
Gold Price Forecast
Every new Gold analysis as it publishes, today's technical signal and key levels, live price — on one page.
See all Gold forecasts
Silver Price Forecast: Break Below $55 Could Expose $50
The daily chart for spot silver also shows that prices remain under pressure despite the slight rebound from the strong support of the triangle at $55 on Thursday. The price has challenged the most important support in the short term and looks to find the next move.
A break below $55 will likely trigger another drop towards the $50 region. On the other hand, a break above $64 will likely break the triangle and open the way for a rally towards the $72 area, which is defined by the 200-day SMA.
The 4-hour chart for spot silver also shows that the price dropped from the key resistance at $64. The price needs to break above the $72 area to open the way for a further rally towards the $90 region. The major support in silver remains between $45 and $50, which is defined by the support of the wedge pattern.
Gold-to-Silver Ratio Rises Above 73 as Silver Lags
The gold-to-silver ratio has also rebounded and moved above the 73 region, which has been defined as the key resistance in the ratio. The strong rally in the ratio suggests that gold and silver prices have more room to drop. According to historical price action, major bottoms in gold and silver prices form when the ratio peaks.
The ratio produced peaks in March 2020 and April 2025 at the key resistance of the ascending channel pattern. The breakdown from this ascending channel pattern in November 2025 triggered a strong drop.
Now, the ratio is rebounding again to find the next resistance. Once the ratio produces a peak, gold and silver prices will likely confirm a bottom and initiate a strong rally.
What to Watch Next
Gold and silver prices remain vulnerable despite the rebound on Thursday. The drop in Treasury yields could support further gains in precious metals, but persistent inflation keeps the risk of a Fed rate hike in focus. The comments by Warsh could shape the next move by changing expectations for interest rates.
Gold needs to clear $4,200-$4,250 to strengthen the recovery, while silver needs to break above $64. A break below $4,100 in gold could expose $4,000, while a break below $55 in silver could bring $50 into view. The increase in the gold-to-silver ratio also shows that silver remains weaker than gold.
Read more: Softer Dollar Fuels Rebound After Hot CPI
About the Author
Muhammad Umair is a finance MBA and engineering PhD. As a seasoned financial analyst specializing in currencies and precious metals, he combines his multidisciplinary academic background to deliver a data-driven, contrarian perspective. As founder of Gold Predictors, he leads a team providing advanced market analytics, quantitative research, and refined precious metals trading strategies.
Well, yesterday's market winners aren't looking quite so comfortable today.
After an impressive advance through major technical resistance, the U.S. dollar has turned lower and is now testing an important support area.
Meanwhile, gold buyers have staged a recovery after yesterday's bearish breakdown, attempting to reclaim levels that sellers had managed to break.
A turnaround in both markets?
Possibly. But there's a catch.
Neither side has done enough to declare a decisive victory.
The dollar still has important support levels to defend, while gold buyers are facing resistance barriers that have repeatedly stopped their advances.
So, is today's price action the beginning of a bigger change or simply another round of testing the market's technical boundaries?
Let's look at the evidence.
U.S. Dollar (DX.F) - Yesterday's breakthrough, today's reality check
Well, the dollar bulls certainly gave us something to talk about yesterday.
Their impressive rally pushed the greenback above several important technical barriers, including the upper boundary of the wedge and the combination of the 38.2% and 50% Fibonacci retracements visible on the weekly chart.
That was a meaningful achievement.
But here's the problem.
Buyers couldn't hold their ground.
Despite yesterday's strong advance, the dollar didn't reach the potential resistance area at 102.87-102.96 that we highlighted in our previous Lab. Instead, sellers stepped in earlier and today's price action has brought another setback for the bulls.
The bears strike backThe dollar has retreated below the important resistance barriers it briefly overcame yesterday. On the weekly chart, that means the attempted bullish breakout has failed to hold so far, but because the week isn't over, we're not treating this as a confirmed weekly invalidation just yet.
There's another important detail.
Despite yesterday's impressive rally, buyers failed to confirm the closure of Tuesday's bearish gap at 102.33-102.37 on a daily closing basis. And now, the daily indicators have generated sell signals, adding another technical argument to the ongoing correction.
So, have the bears finally regained control?
Not so fast.
Buyers still have two important support areasToday's decline has already brought the dollar into the bullish gap at 101.60-101.70, created on October 7 and just below it lies another crucial support zone: the June and July highs at 101.49–101.57.
Remember these levels?
We've repeatedly emphasized their importance to the broader technical outlook, and they remain just as relevant today. In our opinion, as long as buyers manage to defend these support areas, another attempt to challenge the recently broken resistance barriers remains a possibility.
A successful recovery could bring the 102.36-102.49 resistance zone back into focus and only if buyers manage to reclaim that area would another advance toward the previously discussed 102.87-102.96 region become more compelling.
What would strengthen the bearish case?A confirmed daily closure of the bullish gap, followed by a break below the 101.49-101.57 support zone, would be a considerably more serious warning. Such a development would undermine the technical foundation supporting another bullish attempt and strengthen the case for further weakness.
For now, however, sellers haven't achieved that.
Daily Takeaway
• Bearish development: the dollar has retreated below the weekly resistance barriers it briefly overcame, while daily indicators have generated sell signals.
• First important support: the October 7 bullish gap at 101.60-101.70.
• Critical structural support: the June and July highs at 101.49-101.57.
• Bullish alternative: a successful defense of these support areas could allow another attempt to overcome 102.36-102.49.
Bottom line: yesterday, buyers demonstrated that they could push through resistance. Today, sellers have shown that they can force them back, but the bigger question is whether the bulls can defend support and prepare another attempt. Breaking through resistance is one thing. Staying above it is another. And defending support after a failed breakout may be the next important test.
Gold (GC.F) - The bulls are back; But they've got something to prove.
Well, gold buyers have decided they aren't ready to surrender just yet and after yesterday's session, that's quite an interesting development.
Remember what happened?
Gold closed below the previously broken upper boundary of the red falling wedge, confirming the invalidation of the earlier bullish breakout. Sellers also pushed the price below the lower boundary of the orange consolidation at 4156. That brought our bearish scenario into focus, including the potential minimum downside objective around 4080, based on the height of the consolidation at 4156-4233.
But the bears didn't get that far.
And here's where the story gets interesting.
The weekly gap attracts buyersYesterday, gold briefly moved below the lower boundary of the important weekly bullish gap at 4098-4135. However, the decline stopped at 4095, before reaching the previous low at 4091.
And buyers responded.
Under our weekly closing-confirmation approach, this brief move below the gap hasn't confirmed its closure on the weekly chart. The support area remains an important part of the technical picture but there's another detail worth highlighting.
A new bullish gap inside the weekly support areaToday's Asian session began with a bullish gap at 4107-4125 and notice where that gap is located… right inside the broader weekly bullish gap at 4098-4135.
That's a particularly interesting combination.
It shows that buyers have started pushing back in precisely the area we identified yesterday as crucial for the weekly outlook and they didn't stop there.
Today's recovery has carried gold back above the previously broken upper boundary of the red falling wedge. Buyers have also pushed the price back above 4156, attempting to invalidate yesterday's breakdown below the orange consolidation.
That's encouraging, but we still need to distinguish between an intraday recovery and a confirmed daily reversal of the breakdown.
A daily close back above 4156 would strengthen the case that yesterday's move below the consolidation has failed.
The Real Test Is Still Ahead
Now comes the part where we need to be careful.
Just because buyers have recovered lost ground doesn't mean they're ready to launch another powerful rally.
Why?
Take a look at the 4240-4250 resistance area.
Gold bulls have already challenged this region three times and every time, sellers have pushed them back, leaving extended upper shadows on the daily candles. That's a warning we shouldn't ignore. The upper boundary of the orange consolidation at 4233 adds another obstacle immediately below this resistance zone.
So, even if buyers successfully invalidate yesterday's bearish breakdown, their next challenge will be considerably more demanding.
A sustained move above 4240-4250 would provide a much stronger argument that buyers are ready to regain control.
Until then, another rejection remains possible and if gold slips back below 4156, the bearish scenario we've been tracking could quickly return to the spotlight.
Daily Takeaway
• Bullish development: buyers have defended the area of the weekly gap at 4098-4135 and returned above the previously broken falling wedge.
• Additional positive signal: today's bullish gap at 4107-4125 lies inside the weekly support area.
• Key short-term confirmation: a daily close above 4156 would strengthen the invalidation of yesterday's breakdown from the orange consolidation.
• Major resistance: 4233, followed by the repeatedly defended 4240-4250 area.
• Bearish alternative: renewed weakness below 4156 would bring the earlier downside scenario back into focus.
Bottom line: the bulls have delivered an encouraging recovery, but the repeated failures around 4240-4250 remain an important warning. The bulls have shown they can defend support. Now they need to prove they can overcome resistance.
And what about the rest of the metals market?Gold isn't the only metal attempting a recovery today.
Silver has bounced but remains below important broken trendlines. Platinum and palladium are trying to invalidate yesterday's bearish breakdowns, while copper sellers have received another technical advantage from a fresh bearish gap.
And here's what makes the broader picture particularly interesting: not every rebound carries the same weight, and not every bearish signal has received confirmation.
Final thought - The first move isn't the whole storyYesterday, the dollar bulls looked strong and gold sellers appeared to have the advantage.
Today, both markets are challenging those impressions.
But there's an important difference between a market attempting to reverse direction and actually confirming that reversal. The dollar still needs to defend its support. Gold still needs to overcome resistance.
Until those battles are resolved, both bullish and bearish possibilities deserve our attention. The first move gets our attention. What happens next earns our conviction.
Several large Indian mutual funds issued public notices late on Thursday suspending bulk subscriptions to gold exchange-traded funds, just ahead of the festive season when investor demand typically rises.
The notices from the fund houses, including Kotak Mahindra Mutual Fund, UTI Mutual Fund and HDFC Mutual Fund, did not cite a reason for the move. There is no restriction on redemptions from these funds.
The decision was taken following a nudge from the Securities and Exchange Board of India, according to a mutual fund executive familiar with the discussions. Two bullion industry officials confirmed the halt had followed discussions with the market regulator.
The sources declined to be identified as they are not permitted to comment on discussions with the regulator.
A spokesperson for SEBI did not respond to a Reuters request for comment outside business hours.
The Indian rupee has been under pressure this year due to a surge in global oil prices, which have inflated the country's import bill, and heavy selling by foreign investors in Indian equities. Strong demand for gold has further weighed on the currency, prompting the government to raise import duties on gold and silver earlier this year.
India, the world's largest consumer of silver and second-largest consumer of gold, relies on imports to meet most of its demand, a dependence that can sometimes widen its trade deficit.
Gold imports fell to $1.8 billion in September, from $2.3 billion in August. However, Indians will celebrate Dussehra in October and Diwali in early November, when buying gold is considered auspicious.
Inflows into gold and silver ETFs surged during last year's festive season as investors turned to precious metals amid lackluster stock market returns.
The move is surprising, as gold and silver imports have fallen sharply over the past two months from a year earlier and have not contributed to the trade deficit, said a dealer at a private bank that supplies bullion to ETFs.
"It looks more like a precautionary measure to avoid a surge in imports in October," the dealer said.
Gold price climbs after another US inflation report on Thursday. Although the snapshot of US wholesale inflation came in hotter than expected, it was already priced in by investors, who trimmed their hawkish bets on the Federal Reserve (Fed). That produced a tailwind for the yellow metal, which benefits from lower interest rate environments. The XAU/USD trades at $4,148, up 1.1%.
Bullion rebounds as falling Treasury yields and reduced October Fed hike bets lift BullionBullion prices recovered following a red-hot US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on Wednesday, which prompted investors to increase hawkish Fed bets. Nevertheless, toward the end of the session, traders reduced those bets ahead of the release of Thursday's Producer Price Index (PPI).
The US PPI in September jumped above the 6% threshold, largely due to a rise in energy prices. The headline print exceeded estimates of 5.3%, surging to 6.3% YoY, while underlying inflation jumped from 4.8% to 5%, also above forecasts.
The Greenback and US Treasury yields initially steadied, before weakening, a tailwind for the precious metal. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the performance of the buck’s value against a basket of six peers, edged down 0.4% to 102.11. At the same time, the yield of the US 10-year benchmark bond fell ten basis points to 5.089%.
After the data release, money markets now expect a 26% chance of a 25-basis-point rate hike by the Fed at the October 28 meeting, though for December they priced in a 92% chance.
In the meantime, Federal Reserve officials, led by San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly and Governor Michelle Bowman, stated that an immediate rate hike might not be needed.
US Retail Sales in September also cooled from 1.3% to 0.8% MoM but came in better than economists' projections of 0.3%. Further data showed that Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending October 10 came at 199K, below forecasts of 200K.
Investors are also looking for comments from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at the International Monetary Fund's annual meeting, looking for clues ahead of this month's Fed meeting.
XAU/USD technical analysis: Gold jumps back above $4,100 but remains bearishOn Wednesday, Gold reached a weekly low of $4,073, but during Thursday’s sessionit reclaimed the $4,100 mark and is hovering near $4,150. Despite this, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains bearish but is showing signs that buyers are moving in.
For a bullish reversal, buyers need to clear $4,200 before testing the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,245. Above lies the 50-day SMA at $4,334.
For a bearish continuation, the first support for XAU/USD is $4,100. A decisive breakdown will expose the October 14 low of $4,073, then the July 29 cycle low at $3,996, and finally the July 17 low at $3,959. Below that is the yearly low at $3,941.
Gold daily chart
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Gold Technical Outlook: XAU/USD Short-term Trade Levels
Gold has declined nearly 10% from the September high, but selling pressure has stalled near major technical support.
XAU/USD has held above a pivotal support zone for two weeks, with daily momentum divergence warning of possible downside exhaustion.
The October opening range remains intact, putting the focus on a decisive break for near-term directional guidance.
A sustained push above range resistance would strengthen the case for a more meaningful recovery.
Failure to preserve support would threaten another wave of accelerated selling and bring the yearly lows back into focus.
Resistance 4230, 4307/19 (key), 4382- Support 4096-4104 (key), 4007, 3951
Gold remains at an important technical crossroads as October trade unfolds, with buyers attempting to establish a foothold following the sharp decline from the September highs. Although the broader near-term trend remains bearish, increasingly divergent momentum suggests selling pressure may be losing traction, leaving the market vulnerable to a larger reaction in the days ahead. The immediate challenge is whether bulls can force a recovery through overhead resistance or whether another wave of selling triggers a deeper correction. Meanwhile, this week's hotter-than-expected inflation data and subsequent Fed commentary have fueled sharp swings in Treasury yields and interest-rate expectations, adding another layer of uncertainty ahead of the October FOMC decision. Battle lines drawn on the XAU/USD short-term technical charts.
Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this gold technical setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST and follow this setup throughout the week in the Opening Bell.
Gold Price Chart – XAU/USD Daily
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; XAU/USD on TradingView
Technical Outlook: In last month’s Gold Short-term Outlook we noted that XAU/USD was, “trading just above pivotal support with the monthly opening range preserved ahead of major event risk. From a trading standpoint, losses would need to be limited to 4230 for the July uptrend to remain viable..” A definitive late-month break lower invalidated the July uptrend with the decline extending more than 9.8% off the September high.
The losses were halted at confluent support near the 100% extension of the August selloff and the 78.6% retracement of the late-June rally at 4096-4104. Gold has been unable to mark a daily close below this level and the focus remains on possible inflection off this threshold with the October opening range intact just above. Ongoing momentum divergence on the daily chart suggests that the bears remain vulnerable while above this zone with price still holding within the confines of the September channel.
Gold Price Chart – XAU/USD 240min
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; XAU/USD on TradingView
Notes: A closer look at gold price action shows XAU/USD trading within a well-defined range straddling the October open at 4158 for the past two weeks. Initial resistance is eyed at the upper parallel with a breach / close above the 61.8% retracement of the June advance at 4230 needed to suggest a more significant near-term low is in place, and a larger recovery is underway. Key resistance is eyed at the 38.2% retracement of the August decline and the objective yearly open at 4307/19. A rally surpassing this threshold exposes the next major technical considerations at the October 2025 swing high at 4382 and the 61.8% retracement near 4456.
A break / daily close below confluent support would threaten another bout of accelerated losses for the yellow metal. Subsequent support objective rest at the 2026 low-day close (LDC) at 4007 and the yearly low / 2025 late-October LDC at 3942/51- look for a larger reaction there IF reached.
Bottom line: Gold has defended a key support zone the past two weeks with the monthly range set just above- look for the breakout to offer guidance here in the days ahead. From a trading standpoint, losses need to be limited to 4096 IF gold is going to make a larger recovery here with a breach / close above 4230 needed to fuel a larger breakout. Keep in mind that a decisive break below this key pivot zone could trigger a sharp deterioration in the technical outlook, opening the door for a much steeper decline.
Event risk remains elevated for gold into the weekly close, with Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s latest commentary in focus following this week’s hotter-than-expected CPI report and subsequent reversal in Treasury yields. Although expectations for an October rate hike briefly climbed to nearly 50% following the inflation release, markets have since reversed course, now pricing a 72% probability the Fed will hold rates steady this month. With the economic calendar relatively light next week and Fed officials entering their pre-meeting blackout period, Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar are likely to remain key drivers for bullion ahead of the October FOMC decision. Stay nimble into the weekly close and watch for signs of a more decisive technical move in the days ahead. Review my latest Gold Weekly Technical Forecast for a closer look at the longer-term XAU/USD trade levels.
Key US Economic Data Releases
Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.
Active Short-term Technical Charts
Canadian Dollar Short-term Outlook: USD/CAD Five-Week Rally Hits a Wall at Major Resistance
Japanese Yen Short-term Outlook: USD/JPY Breakout Risk Builds Below 200-Day Average
Australian Dollar Short-term Outlook: AUD/USD Rebound Challenges September Downtrend
US Dollar Short-term Outlook: USD Four-Week Rally Stalls Below Key Resistance
Swiss Franc Short-term Outlook: USD/CHF Rebound Tests Broken Uptrend
Euro Short-term Outlook: EUR/USD Selloff Nears Critical Yearly Support
British Pound Short-term Outlook: GBP/USD Selloff Breaks June Uptrend
--- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist
Key Points:Gold climbed back towards the $4150 level amid falling Treasury yields. Silver rebounded above $57.00 as gold/silver ratio pulled back. Platinum moved above the $1600 level as demand for precious metals increased.
Gold Gains Ground As Treasury Yields Fall
Gold 151026 Daily Chart Gold rebounds as traders focus on the strong pullback in Treasury yields. The yield of 2-year Treasuries declined below the 4.76% level, while the yield of 10-year Treasuries settled below 5.09%.
Treasury yields pulled back as traders rushed to buy bonds amid worries about AI. CoreWeave, an AI cloud-computing provider, found itself under strong pressure. The company’s credit-default swaps priced in a more than 50% chance of default in the next five years. The sell-off in CoreWeave’s bonds triggered a sell-off in AI-related stocks and raised demand for U.S. Treasuries.
Higher-than-expected PPI report did not have any impact on the Treasury market today as traders rushed to buy safe-haven bonds amid AI uncertainty. PPI increased by +1.3% month-over-month in September, highlighting growing inflationary pressure.
FedWatch Tool indicates that the probability for a rate hike at the next Fed meeting in October declined to 29.3%. Traders believe that Fed will not raise rates despite inflation data. The falling probability of a rate hike provided additional support to gold markets.
U.S. dollar pulled back against a broad basket of currencies as traders reacted to the rally in U.S. bond markets. Weaker dollar served as an additional positive catalyst for gold.
Currently, gold is trying to settle back above the resistance level at $4160 – $4180. In case gold manages to settle above the $4180 level, it will head towards the resistance, which is located in the $4300 – $4320 range. RSI is in the moderate territory, so there is plenty of room to gain momentum in case the right catalysts emerge.
Silver Attempts To Settle Back Above $57.00
Silver 151026 Daily Chart Silver gains ground as traders focus on weaker dollar and falling Treasury yields. Gold/silver ratio pulled back below the 73.00 level, providing additional support to silver.
If silver manages to settle back above the key support level at $56.00 – $57.00, it will head towards the psychologically important $60.00 level. A move above $60.00 will push silver towards the resistance at $61.00 – $62.00.
Gold Price Forecast
Every new Gold analysis as it publishes, today's technical signal and key levels, live price — on one page.
See all Gold forecasts On the support side, a successful test of the support at $56.00 – $57.00 will open the way to the test of the next support at $51.00 – $52.00.
Platinum 151026 Daily Chart Platinum is moving higher amid broad rebound in precious metals markets. Palladium markets are up by +3.4%, which is bullish for platinum.
If platinum manages to settle above the support at $1600 – $1620, it will head towards the resistance level at $1700 – $1720. A move above $1720 will push platinum towards the 50 MA at $1755.
On the support side, platinum needs to settle below the support level at $1600 – $1620 to gain downside momentum in the near term. In this case, platinum will move towards the next support at $1520 – $1540.
If you’d like to know more about how to trade gold and silver, please visit our educational area.
Vladimir is an independent trader, with over 18 years of experience in the financial markets. His expertise spans a wide range of instruments like stocks, futures, forex, indices, and commodities, forecasting both long-term and short-term market movements.
Gold has been attempting to stabilise today after its sharpest sell-off in months, with a gain of more than 1% at the time of writing. However, I remain doubtful we have seen a bottom. Yes, the US dollar has eased a bit and the reversal in Treasury yields are also helping. But while the immediate pressure has eased, I would be reluctant to interpret today’s gains as a clear signal that the correction is over. For now, at least, my near-term gold outlook remains modestly bearish, even if I have a strong long-term bullish bias towards gold and especially silver.
Fed expectations are still a major headwind for gold
This week’s hotter-than-expected US inflation data means the Fed will have to hike again and maintain a hawkish bias for a while, especially if oil prices continue to push higher from here on.
The good news for precious metals is that for now yields have fallen back sharply from their post-CPI highs, while the dollar has also surrendered much of its advance. That has given gold some breathing room and explains why the metal has been able to rebound despite continued weakness in technology stocks.
But don’t be surprised if the sellers return as clearly confidence among bullish investors have taken a hit following the sell-off on Wednesday.
Central bank buying cushions the downside
Part of the reason why we haven’t seen a more meaningful drop in gold in recent weeks despite the prior strong dollar rally and elevated yields is to do with central banks, which continue to accumulate gold. That steady demand goes some way to explaining why the metal has held support rather than breaking down. It is not, however, a guarantee of a recovery.
Price action in recent sessions has been heavy, and gold has been unable to break its bearish trend. Central bank demand appears to be slowing the decline rather than reversing it.
Gold still needs to confirm a low
What I am waiting for is confirmation that gold has formed a low, and so far that trigger has not come. The metal has tried to hold key support around $4,100, but the resistance zone overhead has held firm. I would need to see a move above that zone before turning bullish at current levels. Thus, the technical gold outlook still hangs in the balance.
Source: TradingView.com
Support comes in around $4,070 to $4,100, where the early August rally began, and gold has bounced from that area a couple of times already.
Resistance meanwhile sits between $4170 to $7185. A move above that would bring the next band of resistance between $4,223 and around $4,285ish, a zone that has held on several occasions.
A break above that would make the picture considerably more constructive. As things stand, though, I can't rule out a dip below $4,000 and potentially the summer low of $3,942.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why has gold been holding relatively despite a stronger dollar? Gold has not broken its summer lows even as major FX pairs such as the EUR/USD have fallen to one-year lows. Part of the reason is that central banks continue to accumulate gold.
Where is key support for gold? Support comes in around $4,070 to $4,100, where the early August rally began. Gold has bounced from that area a couple of times already.
Could gold fall below $4,000? It can't be ruled out. Gold could dip below the $4,000 level and take out its summer low before potentially reclaiming that level to create a bullish signal.
Gold (XAU/USD) is recovering from a sharp sell-off triggered by hotter-than-expected United States (US) inflation data released on Wednesday. The precious metal briefly plunged toward $4,073 as investors increased their bets on further Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hikes before recovering as US Treasury yields and the US Dollar (USD) reversed their initial gains.
At first glance, the inflation report delivered almost everything Gold bears wanted. Consumer prices accelerated, underlying inflation proved more persistent than expected, and traders rapidly reassessed the likelihood of additional monetary tightening.
Yet the most revealing development may not be the initial decline. It is how quickly buyers returned. Despite renewed pressure from systematic trading strategies and a more hawkish outlook for US monetary policy, Gold continues to attract demand around a price region that has repeatedly contained declines since the summer.
That resilience raises an important question: is the latest sell-off the beginning of a deeper breakdown, or another episode in which speculative investors are selling into demand from buyers with longer investment horizons?
Hot inflation gave Gold bears exactly what they neededThe September Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed that headline inflation accelerated to 3.7% YoY, compared with 3.4% in August and market expectations of 3.6%. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, also accelerated to 2.6% from 2.4%, exceeding the 2.5% consensus.
Economic Calendar. Source: FXStreet.The figures reinforced concerns that inflationary pressures are spreading beyond energy and that the Fed may need to maintain restrictive monetary policy for longer than previously anticipated. Markets reacted accordingly. The probability of an October interest rate hike increased sharply immediately after the report, while expectations for another increase in December strengthened.
The initial reaction was particularly unfavorable for Gold. Higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset, while rising Treasury yields and a stronger US Dollar generally reduce its attractiveness.
The combination initially brought prices to the support area that had already attracted buyers during previous corrections. However, the selling pressure was not exclusively driven by investors reassessing inflation expectations. Another group of market participants appears to have played an important role.
The real selling pressure is coming from systematic tradersAccording to TD Securities, the stronger inflation report triggered significant selling from Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs), investment strategies that frequently rely on price trends and systematic trading signals. The bank explains that "CTAs have turned heavy sellers of gold amid a higher than expected inflation print and as prices have found heavy resistance near the $4,200/oz level."
The latest episode follows several weeks of speculative repositioning. In its earlier analysis of Gold futures positioning, TD Securities reported that speculative investors had reduced long exposure while increasing short positions for three consecutive weeks. The bank also identified approximately $4,300 as an important threshold for triggering short covering from systematic strategies.
The latest inflation surprise therefore arrived in a market where speculative investors were already positioned defensively. But selling pressure from CTAs does not necessarily mean that all investors are abandoning Gold. Indeed, the bank identified another category of flows moving in the opposite direction.
The buyers aren't disappearing. They're waiting lowerOne of the most important observations in TD Securities' latest research concerns the demand that continues to absorb speculative selling. While systematic traders have increased their bearish exposure, the bank noted that offsetting flows "have ultimately offered strong support for gold," adding that "we expect these flows will remain robust, especially in the $4,000-4,100/oz region."
This assessment supports the idea that the latest decline may represent a confrontation between different groups of investors rather than a broad liquidation of Gold holdings. Short-term traders are reacting to higher inflation, changing interest rate expectations and deteriorating price momentum. Meanwhile, other investors appear willing to accumulate Gold at lower valuations.
The distinction is consistent with the positioning divergence highlighted before the CPI release, when TD Securities identified continued buying interest from discretionary investors and Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs), despite bearish positioning among systematic strategies.
Gold ETF flows. Source: World Gold CouncilThis creates a potentially important market dynamic. As speculative traders liquidate long positions or establish new shorts, they generate immediate selling pressure. But if other investors absorb that supply, the market can stabilize without requiring a significant improvement in the macroeconomic environment.
Moreover, the reduction of speculative long exposure can eventually diminish the pool of investors vulnerable to forced liquidation. That does not automatically establish a market bottom. However, it means that the relationship between negative news and falling prices can weaken as positioning becomes increasingly defensive.
The latest rebound suggests that this mechanism may already be operating around $4,100.
The bond market just challenged the bearish Gold narrativePerhaps the most surprising development following the inflation report occurred in the US Treasury market. Bond yields initially increased as traders priced in a greater probability of additional Fed tightening. However, the move subsequently reversed, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield falling to a three-week low on Thursday.
US 10-year bond yield. Source: CNBCOne possible catalyst behind this reversal emerged from China. According to a Bloomberg report, China has been quietly accumulating US Treasury securities through custodians outside the United States.
The revelation provided a possible explanation for renewed demand for US government debt. When investors purchase Treasuries, bond prices rise and yields decline. This mechanism can provide relief to Gold by reducing the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset. The US Dollar (USD) also retreated from its highest level in approximately 18 months, reinforcing the precious metal's recovery.
Saxo Bank Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen highlighted the importance of this development in comments reported by Reuters: "Falling real yields and resilient investment demand help gold recover from its post-CPI selloff, but the technical outlook remains fragile."
For Gold, the key question is whether bond demand can contribute to a sustained decline in Treasury yields, even as inflation remains elevated and the Fed maintains a tightening bias. If yields continue retreating while investment demand remains resilient, Gold could find additional support despite the unfavorable inflation backdrop.
The latest rebound therefore highlights an important contradiction: the inflation report gave Gold sellers a reason to push prices lower, but the bond market's response may have removed part of the pressure needed to sustain that decline.
$4,100 is becoming a floor candidate, but $3,940 remains the real test
Gold (XAU/USD) daily chart. Source: FXStreet.The daily chart reinforces the importance of the broader support region identified during previous corrections. Gold trades below its 50-day, 100-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), currently near $4,335, $4,246 and $4,524, respectively. This configuration indicates that the broader trend remains under pressure despite Thursday's recovery.
However, the $4,100 region continues to attract buyers, following several successful defenses of the area since late September. Wednesday's decline toward $4,073 briefly pushed prices below this level without producing a sustained breakdown.
The importance of this support extends beyond the immediate $4,100 level. Gold repeatedly found demand around $4,000 during the summer, with the broader $4,100-$3,940 region representing a critical area for assessing whether longer-term buyers remain willing to absorb speculative selling.
A decisive break below $3,940 would weaken the argument that the recent consolidation represents a durable accumulation phase. It could also open the door to a deeper correction. Conversely, maintaining this broader support region would suggest that the market continues to absorb selling pressure despite an unfavorable interest rate environment.
On the upside, the $4,200-$4,225 area remains the first significant obstacle, having repeatedly limited recovery attempts in recent weeks. A sustained break above this region would expose the 100-day SMA near $4,246, followed by the $4,300-$4,335 area, where the 50-day SMA and an important systematic positioning threshold converge.
This latter region is particularly relevant because TD Securities previously identified $4,300 as a level capable of encouraging additional short covering among CTAs. A recovery above that threshold could therefore generate incremental buying pressure as systematic strategies adjust their positions. Further upside would bring the 200-day SMA near $4,524 into focus, although such a recovery would require a more convincing improvement in market conditions.
For now, the daily chart suggests that Gold is attempting to establish a base rather than confirming a bullish reversal.
The next Gold move may depend on who runs out of conviction firstThe latest inflation report appears to strengthen the bearish case for Gold. Consumer prices are accelerating, the Fed is considering additional tightening, and systematic traders are increasing their selling pressure.
Yet the market's response reveals a more complicated picture. Gold has recovered from its post-CPI decline, Treasury yields have reversed their initial increase, and buyers continue to emerge around a support region that has repeatedly contained losses.
The contrast between speculative selling and persistent underlying demand is becoming increasingly important. If inflation remains elevated and long-term Treasury yields resume their advance, systematic selling could intensify and eventually overwhelm the demand supporting Gold around $4,100.
But if Treasury yields continue retreating while Gold maintains its broader $4,100-$3,940 support region, bearish positioning could become a source of future buying pressure rather than a permanent obstacle.
The most important signal may therefore be not how aggressively investors sell Gold after unfavorable economic news, but how little additional downside that selling ultimately produces.
For now, $4,100 is not a confirmed bottom. But the repeated willingness of buyers to defend the area suggests that the market is not yet ready to treat it as the edge of a cliff.
Gold bounced from dangerous zone on Thursday to fully reverse post-US CPI drop and fade immediate risk of eventual clear break below pivotal ($4120/00 support zone).
The metal price fell on hotter than expected US inflation in September that initially boosted bets for more aggressive Fed’s stance on monetary policy, but following comments from Fed officials that the central bank should stay on tightening path but with no urgency for action in October meeting, cooled the sentiment.
Another false break lower suggests that larger bears remain in play but need more evidence to spark final push through cracked $4120/00 levels that would signal bearish continuation and expose key $4000 support zone.
Technical picture on daily chart haven’t changed significantly, as momentum indicators remain in negative territory but climbing that supports near-term view of extended sideways mode, while MAs are in bearish configuration.
However, near-term action is expected to remain biased lower while the price stays in the lower side of the range ($4070/$4230) that would keep $4120/00 supports at increased risk.
Investors await release of US PPI data today for more information, with hotter than expected producer price index, likely to put more pressure on the yellow metal.
GBP/USD rises after stronger UK GDP data and amid USD weakness GBP/USD is rising after stronger-than-expected UK GDP data and amid a weaker USD.
Data showed that UK GDP unexpectedly grew in August despite consumer spending falling. The UK economy grew 0.1% after expanding by 0.4% in July. This was better than the 0.1% contraction that was forecast and marks the fourth straight month that growth has beaten expectations.
On a three-month basis, GDP was up 0.7%. A 1.2% jump in manufacturing output helped drive growth in August. This marked the sector's strongest performance since November last year. Service sector activity was flat, though still better than expected.
The data points to resilience in the UK economy despite rising energy prices and tighter financial conditions. This boosts the case for the Bank of England to keep rates higher for longer.
However, it's also worth keeping in mind that this improvement in activity came before a resurgence in energy costs, which pushed oil prices above $100 a barrel. Higher energy prices could weigh on households and businesses, potentially slowing growth in the coming months.
The market is pricing in four rate hikes over the coming year, which seems aggressive given the risk that higher energy costs could weigh on economic activity.
The key question is whether this resilience can be sustained as higher energy prices feed through the economy. While stronger growth could give the Bank of England more room to keep rates higher for longer, a slowdown in the coming months could see markets scale back expectations for further tightening.
Separately, the U.S. dollar is under pressure, tracking Treasury yields lower. Yields are falling as a sell-off in tech stocks is driving a rotation into safe-haven bonds.
The USD is falling away from an 18-month high despite hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation data yesterday. For GBP/USD, the combination of UK rate expectations and a weaker U.S. dollar will remain key to the near-term outlook.
U.S. PPI figures and a speech by Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh will be in focus today.
GBP/USD forecast – technical analysis GBP/USD continues to consolidate between the 1.3200 support zone on the downside and 1.3280 horizontal resistance. The price remains below its 20, 50 and 200 EMAs, keeping the broader picture bearish.
However, sellers would need to break below the 1.3200 support zone in a meaningful manner. A spike through the level yesterday suggests that selling pressure at those lower levels remains weak, although further confirmation is needed.
A break below 1.3200 would bring 1.3100 into focus, ahead of 1.3000, the psychological level.
On the upside, buyers will need to overcome the 1.3280 obstacle to gain a firmer footing and bring 1.3340 horizontal resistance into play. A rise above here would expose the 50 EMA at 1.3350, before attention turns to the 200 EMA at 1.3400.
Gold rises as Treasury yields and USD ease. PPI up next. Gold prices are rising on Thursday, rebounding from a weekly low hit in the previous session as the U.S. dollar eases and investors assess the chances of a Federal Reserve rate hike this month following hotter-than-expected inflation data.
U.S. inflation came in hotter than expected at 3.7%, and perhaps more concerningly, core inflation was also hotter than expected at 2.6%, suggesting that price pressures are broadening out. Following the data, markets are pricing in around a 32% chance of a rate hike this month, compared with 20% before the data release.
While the data fuelled a rally in the U.S. dollar, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said that the central bank would need to increase rates in the near term, although she saw no need for a hike at the October meeting. Michelle Bowman also supported the view that there was time to wait and see before further action.
This tempering of rate hike expectations and falling Treasury yields amid safe-haven flows into bonds has helped pull the U.S. dollar back from an 18-month high reached overnight, making gold more affordable for buyers using foreign currencies. Lower yields also boost demand for non-yielding assets.
However, the broader outlook remains challenging for gold. Persistent inflation could keep interest rates higher for longer, lifting the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset.
Attention now turns to PPI data and retail sales figures due at 12:30 GMT. Strong data could add to rate hike expectations. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh is also due to speak early Friday morning at the IMF meeting in Thailand. While he may avoid giving explicit forward guidance, other closely watched Fed officials, including Christopher Waller and Beth Hammack, are also speaking and could provide further clues on the outlook for interest rates.
The market still sees an 85% probability of a Fed hike before the end of the year, which remains a headwind for non-yielding gold.
For now, gold is benefiting from the pullback in the U.S. dollar, but the broader outlook remains challenging while markets continue to price in further Fed tightening. A sustained recovery would likely require a more persistent decline in Treasury yields and the dollar, or a meaningful reduction in expectations for rate hikes. Otherwise, the current rebound could prove temporary.
Gold forecast – technical analysis
Gold continues to trade below its falling trend line and its 50 and 200 EMAs, keeping the technical picture bearish. However, $4,100 is proving to be solid support. The longer it holds, the stronger this level becomes.
Sellers would need to break below this support to create a lower low and bring $4,000 into focus, ahead of $3,940.
On the upside, buyers would need to rise above $4,200 to expose the 50 EMA at $4,260 and the 200 EMA at $4,300. A rise above these levels would improve the technical picture and turn attention towards $4,500.
Strong institutional demand should remain a key long-term structural element. September’s net inflows into global gold ETFs totaled $10 billion, adding 67 tonnes and bringing total holdings to an all-time high of 4,256 tonnes. Third-quarter inflows to ETFs reached an all-time high of $31 billion.
Silver: Tight Supply Meets Softer Industrial Demand Silver’s price tends to track gold’s but also reflects industrial demand and Fed policy. Unlike gold, however, silver faces a persistent physical supply-demand deficit. The Silver Institute expects the sixth straight year of a structural deficit for 2026, estimated at 46.3 million ounces, with industrial fabrication falling 3% to around 640 million ounces due to further decreases in loadings by the photovoltaic industry and other industries switching to alternative materials.
The Institute expects stronger investment demand to offset some weakness in industrial demand, while the market remains in deficit. Coin and bar investment in silver is expected to grow by 18% to 258 million ounces, while total supply is expected to decline by 2% to around 1.066 billion ounces.
There was ample evidence in September to support this view. For example, Indian silver ETFs attracted inflows of 19.74 billion rupees. Strong investor demand for precious metals, in general, was also evidenced during the broader equity market sell-off.
Gold Technical Analysis: XAU/USD Holds Above $4,128 as $4,161 Caps the Recovery Gold – Chart Gold (XAU/USD) is currently trading at $4,133.61, after a bounce from the $4,073.63 area on the 2-hour time frame. I like to draw your attention to the fact that the price bounce has taken gold above the $4,107-$4,128 area, but is still below a descending trend line and a resistance area formed by the moving averages. Thus, the overall bearish trend is still intact, despite the current bounce.The first area of interest on the upside is at $4,161.46, above which $4,181.44 and $4,216.96 would come into play. On the other hand, the first support comes in at $4,127.56, below which $4,107.28, $4,088.10, and $4,073.63 would come into focus.
Gold Price Forecast
Every new Gold analysis as it publishes, today's technical signal and key levels, live price — on one page.
See all Gold forecastsThe RSI is around the 50 level, suggesting neutral momentum. A sustained move above 50 would strengthen the bullish case, while a decline below that level would indicate renewed selling pressure. Although the broader trend remains bearish, I am slightly bullish on gold in the short term as long as it is above $4,128. A break below $4,128 would weaken the recovery. A clear break above $4,161 would give a stronger bullish edge to the setup. On the other hand, a break below the $4,107 area would strengthen the bearish case and bring 4,088-4,074 back in focus.
Silver – Chart Silver is trading at $56.03 on the 2-hour chart, continuing its decline while trading below the descending trend line and both moving averages. What I find particularly noteworthy is that the price has broken through several Fibonacci support levels and is now consolidating near the recent lows, which keeps the larger trend structure bearish.
The first support I have my eyes on is $55.41. A clear break below that would bring $54.85 into play, and subsequently $54.29. On the upside, $56.34 is the first resistance, with $56.92, $57.40 and $57.86 becoming further resistance levels if tested.
Market context and the 7th-order institutional demand defenseOn the 4-hour execution continuum, XAU/USD (Gold vs US Dollar) has transitioned into a tight structural compression, with spot price stabilizing near the 4,135.84 mark. Following a prolonged liquidation phase from the 4,700+macro highs, sellers have encountered a formidable institutional liquidity threshold. Downside probes have repeatedly failed to generate continuation, stalling against the monolithic bid foundation established across the 4,040–$4,090 pricing corridor.
This inability of sellers to force follow-through represents textbook Sell Volume Absorption. Rather than accelerating downward, price action has locked into a horizontal base. The market is physically coiling against an immovable wall of limit buy orders, signaling that the directional momentum of the preceding decline has reached terminal exhaustion.
Cluster density analysis (Sidebar architecture)Data aggregation via the SMAS Sidebar 3D exposes the dense structural friction defending the current consolidation:
The underlying titanium foundation: Directly anchoring current price action lies a 7th-Order Institutional Demand Super-Cluster (7TF: M5-M15-M30-H1-H2-H4-W1) spanning $4,040 – $4,090. Seven independent temporal horizons—from the 5-minute microstructure pulse to the macro Weekly baseline—have synchronized their confirmed demand footprints at this exact coordinate, creating a powerful multi-timeframe floor.Overhead resistance echelons: Any relief rotation will face layered supply barriers:An immediate 7th-Order Tactical Supply Cluster (7TF: M5-M15-M30-H1-H2-H3-H4) concentrated across $4,195 – $4,245.An intermediate ceiling at the 8th-Order Institutional Massif (8TF: M5-M15-M30-H1-H2-H3-H4-D1) spanning $4,340 – $4,430.Macro supply slabs positioned higher up across the $4,500 – $4,680 zone.Multi-timeframe phase telemetry (Structure balance 3D)The SMAS Structure Balance 3D module captures an inflection state of structural equilibrium, flashing an official BALANCED [7 vs 6] status:
Residual Intraday Drag: Intermediate frames still carry historical downside bias: M30 (-38°), H1 (-28°), H2 (-31°), H3 (-18°), and H4 (-8°). However, the visible deceleration from -38° down to just -8° on H4 confirms that selling velocity is rapidly drying up.Micro-Impulse Turnaround: Rapid tactical horizons have already initiated positive phase inversion: M3 (+16°), M5 (+3°), M10 (+7°), and M15 (+8°) have flipped green, confirming active limit accumulation.Macro Baseline Anchor: The senior macro horizon W1 remains firmly bullish at +26°, acting as a steady structural anchor.Telemetry Synthesis: This divergence between fading intraday selling and micro-buying against the weekly foundation confirms a classic Spring Compression Pattern, setting the stage for a mean-reversion rebound.Vector geometry and channel trajectory (Structure engine 3D)The SMAS Structure Engine confirms clear trend exhaustion on the active dynamic channel:
The channel's invariant slope angle currently reads at -18.2°, reflecting significant downward deceleration compared to earlier impulse phases.Price action is pressing directly into the channel's lower dynamic boundary. Having absorbed the downward move at these outer structural rails, directional sellers lack the momentum for an expansion breakdown, indicating a high-probability rotation back toward the channel's central equilibrium axis.Execution protocol and quantitative trade parametersWith sellers failing to breach the 7th-order demand foundation and phase balance stabilizing at the weekly anchor, an asymmetric Long Mean-Reversion Scenario is activated:
Order type: Long Accumulation / Buy Limit.Execution coordinate range: $4,110 – $4,138 (Current price: 4,135.84).Structural invalidation (Stop Loss): $4,025 (Placed safely below the 7TF titanium demand floor and the W1 base; calculated risk: ~85–110 points).Target objective 1 (Take Profit 1): $4,235 (+100 to +125 points; Retest of the 7TF supply cluster perimeter. Protocol: Liquidate 50% volume and systematically move Stop Loss to Breakeven +0.1H).Target objective 2 (Take Profit 2, Final): $4,360 (+225 to +250 points; Lower boundary of the 8th-Order Institutional Supply Massif 8TF).Risk / Reward Ratio: 1 : 2.45.
Gold (XAU/USD) gains some meaningful positive traction on Thursday and rallies back above $4,150 during the Asian session, snapping a three-day losing streak to a one-week low, touched the previous day. The initial aggressive market reaction to hotter-than-expected US consumer inflation figures turned out to be short-lived amid the growing acceptance that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may not rush to raise interest rates immediately. This led to a further decline in US bond yields, which prompted some follow-through US Dollar (USD) profit-taking and provided a goodish lift to the non-yielding bullion.
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on Wednesday that the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) accelerated from 3.4% to 3.7% over the 12 months through September, surpassing consensus estimates. Adding to this, the core gauge, which excludes food and energy costs, increased by 2.6% last month, up from 2.4% in August. The data pointed to broadening price pressures, forcing investors to reassess the Fed's policy path. However, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said the central bank will probably need to raise interest rates further, though she signalled that there is no need to do so at the October meeting.
Daly leans hawkish but urges patience as markets digest CPIThe FXS Speechtracker score of 6.8/10 marks a modest hawkish tilt relative to the historical average of 6.1/10, underscoring a stance that keeps further rate hikes firmly on the table. Daly’s emphasis that gas-driven headline CPI is rising while core inflation remains stubborn, combined with the view that more tightening is likely but should not be rushed, signals a preference for data-dependent patience rather than immediate action. The focus on persistent above-target inflation risks, a steady labor market, and the reassurance that markets now better understand the Fed’s reaction function reinforces a carefully hawkish tone anchored in clear communication and accountability.
The FXS Fed Sentiment Index slipped by 0.84 points to 128.17, indicating a slight pullback in hawkish intensity even as the index remains firmly above the neutral 100 mark. This configuration suggests that while the Fed tone is still clearly hawkish, the incremental shift reflects a more measured, deliberate approach to future policy moves rather than an escalation in Dollar-supportive rhetoric.
Nevertheless, market participants are still pricing in over an 85% chance that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs again by the end of this year. Moreover, inflation risks stemming from volatile energy prices underpin prospects for further policy tightening by the Fed. Adding to this, escalating tensions in the Middle East could limit the ongoing USD corrective decline from its highest level since April 2025. In the latest developments, a container ship sank in the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday following a projectile attack, while the Iran-backed Houthi group continued launching drone and missile strikes across Saudi Arabia.
Moreover, the Houthis vowed to continue targeting Saudi Arabia's international airport and oil infrastructure in the coming days in response to Saudi Arabia's aggression against Yemen's capital, Sanaa. Separately, Russia accused Ukraine of launching strikes against two oil refineries, which it claims violated an energy ceasefire recently brokered by US President Donald Trump. This keeps the geopolitical risk premium in play, which might continue to act as a tailwind for the safe-haven buck and hold back bulls from placing aggressive bets on gold. The focus now shifts to the US Producer Price Index (PPI), due for release later today.
Apart from this, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's speech at the annual meetings of the IMF and World Bank in Bangkok on Friday will be looked upon for more cues about the future policy path. The outlook, in turn, will play a key role in driving the USD and provide some meaningful impetus to the yellow metal. In the meantime, the aforementioned fundamental backdrop and the recent repeated failures to sustain a move above $4,200 make it prudent to wait for some follow-through buying before confirming that the Gold price has formed a near-term bottom around the $4,075-$4,065 region.
XAU/USD 4-hour chart
Technical AnalysisFrom a technical perspective, the XAU/USD pair keeps a capped tone below the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart. Furthermore, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is negative and below its signal line, with a contracting histogram, which suggests lingering downside pressure despite some stabilization in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around the neutral 50 area.
Hence, any subsequent move up beyond the 100-period SMA near $4,180 might confront some resistance near the $4,215-$4,220 horizontal zone. A sustained break above this barrier would be needed to ease the current bearish bias and open the way to higher levels. On the flip side, the $4,100 mark could protect the immediate downside ahead of the $4,075-$4,065 region, which, if broken, will reaffirm the negative bias.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.62%-0.43%-0.38%-0.23%0.23%-0.57%-0.79%EUR0.62%0.18%0.25%0.36%0.88%0.02%-0.17%GBP0.43%-0.18%0.06%0.23%0.66%-0.16%-0.37%JPY0.38%-0.25%-0.06%0.13%0.62%-0.23%-0.42%CAD0.23%-0.36%-0.23%-0.13%0.46%-0.34%-0.55%AUD-0.23%-0.88%-0.66%-0.62%-0.46%-0.81%-1.02%NZD0.57%-0.02%0.16%0.23%0.34%0.81%-0.22%CHF0.79%0.17%0.37%0.42%0.55%1.02%0.22%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
RBNZ’s Conway says October rate decision completely open, OCR more likely to riseAUD lower: Australian jobs fall 39,300 in September, unemployment at five-year high of 4.7%BOJ’s Koeda says bank should not be overly cautious about raising ratesGold jumps around $40 as Treasury yields retreat from post-CPI highTalk grows that China is routing US Treasury holdings through Canada: BloombergBolivia overhauls gold export rules to draw in dollars and lift bank depositsUS weighs easing shadow fleet sanctions to cut record tanker freight ratesIran’s IRGC orders evacuation of military bases as US strike fears grow: reportsAustralian September 2026 unemployment rate 4.7% (expected 4.6%, prior 4.7%)CoreWeave bonds trade like distressed debt as AI spending outpaces balance sheetsTSMC set for sixth straight record profit as AI demand lifts Q3 earningsICYMI: Citi now expects a December Fed rate hike after hotter September US inflationUS inflation is becoming less widespread, and that matters more than the headline rate suggestsASML says 2027 and 2028 supply will fall short of demand as Q3 sales hit a recordAnthropic Q3 revenue rises 45% to $16.8 billion ahead of IPOStablecoins have stopped growing. So why is usage still rising?Fed’s Daly: more rate hikes likely needed, but no urgency to move in OctoberFed catch up - Goolsbee calls CPI discouraging as Beige Book flags diesel-fuelled price pressureOil catch up - price gains as Houthis strike Aramco and Iran flags new tactics against tankersOil: Private survey of inventory shows a huge headline crude oil drawBarclays sees possible Tesla-SpaceX merger announcement before DecemberSummary:
US Treasuries extended their rebound from post-CPI lows, with 10-year yields 21bp below their spike after Wednesday’s inflation dataThe US dollar fell broadly and gold rallied around $40, helped by lower yields and a Bloomberg report that China may hold more US debt than official data showOil dipped after a Reuters report that the US is considering easing sanctions on shadow fleet tankers to cut freight rates and boost Gulf oil flowsThe Australian dollar was the exception in FX, falling after September employment dropped 39,300 and unemployment held at 4.7%The Fed’s Mary Daly said further rate hikes are more likely than not, but signalled no need to move in October. The BOJ’s Koeda said the bank should not be overly cautious about raising ratesThe Nikkei fell 3.5% and South Korea’s Kospi extended losses as the tech hardware selloff deepenedBarclays said a Tesla and SpaceX merger announcement is possible before December, according to BloombergAnthropic’s Q3 revenue rose 45% to $16.8bn, Reuters reported. TSMC results are due, with its call at 0600 GMTTreasuries lead, dollar and gold follow
US Treasuries extended their recovery during the Asian session, pushing 10-year yields 21 basis points below the high they reached after Wednesday’s hotter-than-expected US inflation data. The bond rally had wide effects across markets. The US dollar weakened against most major currencies, and gold climbed around $40.
Lower yields reduce the cost of holding gold, which pays no interest, and that supported the metal. Sentiment toward Treasuries also drew support from a Bloomberg report that China may be holding more US government debt than official figures show. A sharp rise in Canada’s reported holdings of US securities, to nearly $600 billion, has fuelled speculation that China is holding bonds through custodians outside the United States. The claims are unconfirmed.
Gold-related news from Bolivia had limited direct bearing on prices. The country is replacing a central bank certificate for gold exports with a requirement that exporters show the regulator SENARECOM that at least 80% of proceeds are deposited in local banks, aiming to boost dollar inflows and oversight, Bloomberg reported.
Oil
Oil prices edged lower after a US official told Reuters that Washington is considering easing sanctions on shadow fleet tankers to bring down record freight rates and increase oil flows from the Gulf. High fuel prices are a political risk for the administration ahead of the November 3 midterm elections.
Australian dollar falls on jobs data
The Australian dollar was the outlier in currency markets, falling while other major currencies gained against the US dollar. Australian employment unexpectedly fell in September, and the unemployment rate held at a five-year high of 4.7%. That prompted traders to scale back bets on another Reserve Bank of Australia rate hike.
Central banks
San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said further rate increases are more likely than not to be needed, according to a Reuters interview. She said the timing is still being considered and signalled no need to move at the October 27-28 meeting. Her comments followed remarks from Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee on Wednesday and the release of the Fed’s Beige Book.
In Japan, Bank of Japan board member Junko Koeda said the bank should not be overly cautious about raising rates, citing upside risks to prices and accommodative financial conditions. She put the neutral rate considerably above 1%, with the policy rate at around 1.25%. In New Zealand, RBNZ chief economist Paul Conway said the late-October decision is completely open, though the cash rate is still more likely to rise.
Stocks
The selloff in technology hardware stocks deepened in Asia, as chipmakers tracked losses on Wall Street amid concern over further Fed rate increases and the financing of artificial intelligence investment. Japan’s Nikkei fell (more than 4%) ... the more I update the more it falls, down 5% now, led by SoftBank, Advantest, Tokyo Electron. South Korea’s Kospi extended its losses to near 8%. Kosdaq fell too, the 8% decline triggering a 20 minute halt.
Crypto
Bitcoin dropped briefly under USD81,000 with around US$485m in luquidations reported.
Company news
Barclays said a merger announcement between Tesla and SpaceX is possible before December, according to Bloomberg. Further detail from the note was not immediately available. Anthropic’s third-quarter revenue rose 45% from the previous quarter to $16.8 billion, according to an investor who attended a pre-IPO meeting, Reuters reported. Revenue was $4.7 billion in the first quarter and $11.6 billion in the second.
Still to come
TSMC is expected to report a 65% rise in third-quarter net profit to NT$746.3 billion, about US$23.4 billion, according to an LSEG SmartEstimate. Any result above NT$706.56 billion would be a record and the company’s 11th straight quarter of profit growth. Its earnings call is at 0600 GMT, which is 5:00pm in Sydney and Melbourne.
Well, today's markets certainly aren't following yesterday's script.
The dollar bulls have pushed through several important technical barriers, including resistance levels on the weekly chart that had previously kept buyers in check.
Meanwhile, gold is moving in the opposite direction, challenging the foundations of its recent bullish setup.
At first glance, the message seems straightforward: dollar bulls are gaining strength while gold bears are taking control.
But here's the interesting part.
The dollar is approaching an important resistance area on the monthly chart, while gold is testing a weekly support zone that could still play a crucial role in the next move.
Could the very moves that look so convincing today eventually set the stage for a reversal?
Let's take a closer look at the technical evidence.
U.S. Dollar (DX.F) - The bulls break through. But where could they stop?Well, so much for the bears defending their territory.
After yesterday's failure to sustain the breakout above the orange consolidation, dollar bulls have returned with a vengeance. And this time, they've brought some serious technical arguments to the table.
Let's start with the daily chart.
Buyers have pushed the dollar back above the upper boundary of the consolidation at 102.27 and recovered the area of yesterday's bearish gap at 102.33-102.37.
That's a meaningful development.
The breakout from the consolidation has strengthened the case for another upward move, with the minimum projected upside based on the formation's height pointing toward 102.87. And judging by today's price action, buyers aren't showing much hesitation.
But here's where things get considerably more interesting.
The weekly chart changes the perspective
Remember the important resistance area that stopped the bulls earlier?
It wasn't just another horizontal barrier.
The zone around 102.36-102.49 brought together several technical obstacles, including Fibonacci levels, while the upper boundary of the wedge added another important challenge on the weekly chart.
And today?
Buyers have pushed through the wedge's upper boundary and the combination of the 38.2% and 50% Fibonacci retracements.
That's not something we can simply ignore.
Breaking through several important resistance barriers in one advance considerably strengthens the bullish argument and raises the possibility of a continuation toward the next Fibonacci resistance combination on the weekly chart.
What about the negative divergences visible on our indicators? They're still there and they still deserve attention. However, divergences are warnings, not automatic reversal signals. Right now, buyers are demonstrating that they're willing to challenge those warnings.
Nevertheless, there's another important detail on the weekly chart.
The dollar has already completed a measured upward move comparable in size to an earlier advance.
Does that mean the rally is over? Not necessarily, but it gives us a reason to consider whether the recent acceleration could eventually be followed by a corrective move. And that brings us to an even more interesting discovery.
Could 102.87-102.96 Become the Next Turning Point?
Take a look at the monthly chart.
The dollar is approaching the upper boundary of a rising wedge, currently around 102.96.
Now compare that level with the minimum upside objective from the daily consolidation.
Daily projection: 102.87.
Monthly wedge resistance: 102.96.
Two different technical measurements, taken from different timeframes, point toward almost the same area.
That's an interesting combination and it raises a question worth asking:
What if another bullish push toward 102.87-102.96 eventually triggers a correction rather than an immediate continuation higher?
It's certainly a possibility we should keep in mind.
The dollar could complete its projected daily move, encounter resistance at the monthly wedge's upper boundary, and then retreat to verify previously broken resistance levels.
Such a development wouldn't automatically invalidate the broader bullish scenario. A successful retest could even provide the foundation for another advance, but a rejection followed by a sustained return below the broken resistance barriers would tell a considerably more cautious story.
On the other hand, if buyers successfully overcome the monthly wedge's upper boundary, the next combination of Fibonacci resistance levels on the weekly chart could become the next area of interest.
Daily Takeaway
• Bullish development: the dollar has pushed above the daily consolidation, recovered yesterday's bearish gap, and overcome important weekly resistance barriers.
• First upside objective: around 102.87, based on the height of the daily consolidation.
• Key resistance to watch: 102.87-102.96, where the daily projection approaches the monthly rising wedge's upper boundary.
• Potential warning: the weekly measured move has already been completed, while negative divergences remain visible.
• What could change the picture: a rejection followed by a sustained return below the broken resistance barriers would weaken the bullish case. A successful breakout above the monthly wedge could favor further gains.
Bottom line: buyers have delivered an impressive technical breakthrough, and the bullish scenario has gained considerable strength. But the closer the dollar gets to 102.87-102.96, the more important the market's reaction to that area could become.
The bulls have the momentum. Whether they can maintain it is the next question.
Gold (GC.F) - The bullish setup is under fire. But there's a twist
Well, gold bulls probably aren't enjoying today's session and we can't really blame them.
Yesterday, we highlighted 4156 as the level that could change the technical picture.
Why?
Because a daily close below it would not only invalidate the earlier breakout above the red falling wedge but also confirm a breakdown below the orange consolidation at 4156-4233.
Today's decline has pushed gold below that critical boundary. In other words, the bears are challenging exactly the conditions we identified as essential to the bullish scenario and that's a development we need to take seriously.
What does the daily breakdown suggest?If sellers maintain their advantage and confirm the breakdown, the minimum projected move based on the height of the orange consolidation points toward 4080.
That's an important downside objective.
But getting there would have another consequence. Gold would move below last week's low at 4091, potentially creating a fresh low rather than the classic double-bottom formation we might otherwise expect.
And here's where the analysis becomes considerably more interesting.
The weekly chart tells another story
The weekly chart reveals an important bullish gap at 4098-4135.
This support area is now directly in the path of the developing decline, and it creates an intriguing technical situation.
What if the bears manage to push gold toward 4080, breaking below both the previous low at 4091 and the weekly gap's lower boundary at 4098? Would that automatically mean the bulls have lost the bigger battle? Not necessarily.
Sometimes the most important signal isn't the breakdown itself. It's what happens after it.
Let's imagine that sellers extend the decline, establish a fresh low, and then buyers step in aggressively enough to reclaim the weekly gap before Friday's close.
Under our weekly closing-confirmation approach, an intraweek move below 4098 would not, by itself, confirm a weekly breakdown of that support area.
And if gold were to finish the week back above 4135?
That would be particularly interesting.
Such price action could suggest that sellers failed to maintain control despite pushing the market below important support levels.
In other words, we could see a genuine bearish breakdown on the daily chart followed by an unsuccessful attempt to sustain that weakness on the weekly timeframe.
And that could provide the foundation for a corrective rebound.
But what if the bulls fail?There's an important alternative.
If gold finishes the week below 4098, the breakdown below the entire weekly support area would receive confirmation under our methodology.
That would strengthen the bearish interpretation and leave the market vulnerable to additional downside pressure. And even if buyers manage to reclaim the gap, it wouldn't automatically restore the earlier bullish scenario.
The broken daily consolidation and the falling wedge would still need to be considered.
Daily Takeaway
• Bearish development: gold has fallen below 4156, challenging the recent bullish breakout and the orange consolidation.
• Conditional downside objective: around 4080, based on the height of the 4156-4233 consolidation.
• Critical weekly support: the bullish gap at 4098-4135, with the previous low at 4091 also in focus.
• Potential bullish response: an intraweek breakdown followed by a recovery above the weekly gap, particularly a weekly close above 4135, could suggest a failed attempt to sustain the decline.
• Bearish confirmation on the weekly chart: a weekly close below 4098 would strengthen the case for continued weakness.
Bottom line: today's decline has seriously challenged gold's bullish scenario. But the developing daily breakdown and the potential defense of weekly support are two different parts of the story.
The bears have made their move. Now let's see whether they can hold their ground.
And what about the rest of the metals market?Gold isn't the only precious metal facing an important technical test.
Silver has slipped below major technical boundaries, platinum and palladium are approaching critical downside levels, and copper buyers have once again failed to overcome a familiar resistance area.
Final thought - Beyond the first moveToday, dollar bulls and gold bears have both made impressive moves, but stronger price action doesn't automatically make the next move predictable.
The dollar is approaching an area where resistance could become increasingly important. Gold, meanwhile, is testing support that may help determine whether its recent breakdown develops into something bigger.
Neither outcome is guaranteed and that's precisely why looking beyond the immediate price move matters. The market tells us what is happening. The technical roadmap helps us understand what to watch next.
Stay objective, follow the evidence, and keep an open mind.
The dollar is approaching the upper boundary of a rising wedge, currently around 102.96.
Now compare that level with the minimum upside objective from the daily consolidation.
Daily projection: 102.87.
Monthly wedge resistance: 102.96.
Two different technical measurements, taken from different timeframes, point toward almost the same area.
That’s an interesting combination and it raises a question worth asking:
What if another bullish push toward 102.87-102.96 eventually triggers a correction rather than an immediate continuation higher?
It’s certainly a possibility we should keep in mind.
The dollar could complete its projected daily move, encounter resistance at the monthly wedge’s upper boundary, and then retreat to verify previously broken resistance levels.
Such a development wouldn’t automatically invalidate the broader bullish scenario. A successful retest could even provide the foundation for another advance, but a rejection followed by a sustained return below the broken resistance barriers would tell a considerably more cautious story.
On the other hand, if buyers successfully overcome the monthly wedge’s upper boundary, the next combination of Fibonacci resistance levels on the weekly chart could become the next area of interest.
Daily Takeaway
Bullish development: the dollar has pushed above the daily consolidation, recovered yesterday’s bearish gap, and overcome important weekly resistance barriers.
First upside objective: around 102.87, based on the height of the daily consolidation.
Key resistance to watch: 102.87-102.96, where the daily projection approaches the monthly rising wedge’s upper boundary.
Potential warning: the weekly measured move has already been completed, while negative divergences remain visible.
What could change the picture: a rejection followed by a sustained return below the broken resistance barriers would weaken the bullish case. A successful breakout above the monthly wedge could favor further gains.
Bottom line: buyers have delivered an impressive technical breakthrough, and the bullish scenario has gained considerable strength. But the closer the dollar gets to 102.87-102.96, the more important the market’s reaction to that area could become.
The bulls have the momentum. Whether they can maintain it is the next question.
Gold (GC.F) – The Bullish Setup Is Under Fire. But There’s a Twist.
Well, gold bulls probably aren’t enjoying today’s session and we can’t really blame them.
Yesterday, we highlighted 4156 as the level that could change the technical picture.
Why?
Because a daily close below it would not only invalidate the earlier breakout above the red falling wedge but also confirm a breakdown below the orange consolidation at 4156-4233.
Today’s decline has pushed gold below that critical boundary. In other words, the bears are challenging exactly the conditions we identified as essential to the bullish scenario and that’s a development we need to take seriously.
What Does the Daily Breakdown Suggest?
If sellers maintain their advantage and confirm the breakdown, the minimum projected move based on the height of the orange consolidation points toward 4080.
That’s an important downside objective.
But getting there would have another consequence. Gold would move below last week’s low at 4091, potentially creating a fresh low rather than the classic double-bottom formation we might otherwise expect.
And here’s where the analysis becomes considerably more interesting.
The Weekly Chart Tells Another Story
The weekly chart reveals an important bullish gap at 4098-4135.
This support area is now directly in the path of the developing decline, and it creates an intriguing technical situation.
What if the bears manage to push gold toward 4080, breaking below both the previous low at 4091 and the weekly gap’s lower boundary at 4098? Would that automatically mean the bulls have lost the bigger battle? Not necessarily.
Sometimes the most important signal isn’t the breakdown itself. It’s what happens after it.
Let’s imagine that sellers extend the decline, establish a fresh low, and then buyers step in aggressively enough to reclaim the weekly gap before Friday’s close.
Under our weekly closing-confirmation approach, an intraweek move below 4098 would not, by itself, confirm a weekly breakdown of that support area.
And if gold were to finish the week back above 4135?
That would be particularly interesting.
Such price action could suggest that sellers failed to maintain control despite pushing the market below important support levels.
In other words, we could see a genuine bearish breakdown on the daily chart followed by an unsuccessful attempt to sustain that weakness on the weekly timeframe.
And that could provide the foundation for a corrective rebound.
But What If the Bulls Fail?
There’s an important alternative.
If gold finishes the week below 4098, the breakdown below the entire weekly support area would receive confirmation under our methodology.
That would strengthen the bearish interpretation and leave the market vulnerable to additional downside pressure. And even if buyers manage to reclaim the gap, it wouldn’t automatically restore the earlier bullish scenario.
The broken daily consolidation and the falling wedge would still need to be considered.
Daily Takeaway
Bearish development: gold has fallen below 4156, challenging the recent bullish breakout and the orange consolidation.
Conditional downside objective: around 4080, based on the height of the 4156-4233 consolidation.
Critical weekly support: the bullish gap at 4098-4135, with the previous low at 4091 also in focus.
Potential bullish response: an intraweek breakdown followed by a recovery above the weekly gap, particularly a weekly close above 4135, could suggest a failed attempt to sustain the decline.
Bearish confirmation on the weekly chart: a weekly close below 4098 would strengthen the case for continued weakness.
Bottom line: today’s decline has seriously challenged gold’s bullish scenario. But the developing daily breakdown and the potential defense of weekly support are two different parts of the story.
The bears have made their move. Now let’s see whether they can hold their ground.
Gold isn’t the only precious metal facing an important technical test.
Silver has slipped below major technical boundaries, platinum and palladium are approaching critical downside levels, and copper buyers have once again failed to overcome a familiar resistance area.
Final Thought – Beyond the First Move
Today, dollar bulls and gold bears have both made impressive moves, but stronger price action doesn’t automatically make the next move predictable.
The dollar is approaching an area where resistance could become increasingly important. Gold, meanwhile, is testing support that may help determine whether its recent breakdown develops into something bigger.
Neither outcome is guaranteed and that’s precisely why looking beyond the immediate price move matters. The market tells us what is happening. The technical roadmap helps us understand what to watch next.
Key Points:Wednesday’s CPI report is extending the selloff in precious metals, and we may be entering the final washout phase of this decline.Gold miners are deeply oversold, having retraced nearly all their August gains. We anticipate a strong resumption of the uptrend once prices bottom, likely between now and early November.In 2022, gold faced a similar environment as the Fed hiked rates and Treasury yields hit multiyear highs. Gold bottomed and resumed its uptrend after the midterms. We expect a similar outcome now.Gold 2022 vs. Now
In 2022, the Fed was hiking rates, and Treasury yields hit multiyear highs as we neared the midterm elections. We’re seeing a similar environment today; the Fed’s hiking rates and yields reached multiyear highs. Back then, rates peaked in October, and gold resumed its uptrend shortly after the midterm elections. I expect a similar outcome now: a little more downside in October before the uptrend resumes in November.
10-Year Yields
Gold remains under pressure as Treasury yields rally. The uptrend in precious metals is expected to resume once yields peak. Significant tops often form in October, supporting a major top any week now.
WTIC
Crude oil is climbing as Iran continues to strike tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz, while the Houthis target Saudi Arabia, including Aramco’s headquarters. Consecutive closes above $100 could set the stage for a breakout above the trendline near $105, which would damage Republicans ahead of the midterms.
Gold Price Forecast
Every new Gold analysis as it publishes, today's technical signal and key levels, live price — on one page.
See all Gold forecasts
Gold
Gold is on track to retest the midyear lows around $3,950 later this month. We expect this pullback to follow the 2022 pattern; thus a brief undercut of the July low is possible. We fully expect the uptrend to resume after the midterms and forecast gold reaching $7,000+ by the end of next year and $10,000+ by 2030.
Silver
Silver is sliding sharply lower following Wednesday’s CPI report, with prices potentially reaching trendline support around $50.00 later this month. In our view, a pullback to that level would present a “back up the truck” buying opportunity.
Platinum
Platinum is on track to test support between $1,500 and $1,550 in October. We expect prices to bottom soon, with the uptrend likely to resume after the midterm elections.
GDX
Mining stocks surged more than 50% from July to August and are now approaching the breakaway gap near $80.00. Further downside remains possible, but we expect a bottom to form before month-end, followed by a strong resumption of the uptrend after the midterm elections.
GDXJ
After surging more than 50% from July to August, junior gold miners have retraced to the breakaway gap near $105. Further downside remains possible, with key support emerging around $100. We expect prices to bottom in October.
SILJ
Silver juniors have retraced most of their August gains, and prices could approach trendline support near $21.00 if silver retests critical support around $50.00 later this month.
Bitcoin
I see the potential for a broadening bottoming formation in Bitcoin if prices collapse below $75,000 before month-end. Such a breakdown could set the stage for a decline toward $54,000 in November.
Conclusion
Precious metals are entering the final washout phase into an October low. Sentiment will collapse once gold slips below $4,000, setting the stage for a bottom. The uptrend will resume once we get past the midterms, with miners likely leading the way higher.
For more price predictions and daily market commentary, consider subscribing at www.GoldPredict.com.
About the Author
AG Thorson is a registered CMT and expert in technical analysis. He believes we are in the final stages of a global debt super-cycle that will begin to unravel in 2020.
According to FedWatch Tool, the probability of a rate hike at the next meeting in October has increased to 37.1%. Traders believe that Fed will take a pause despite rising inflation.
As usual, markets are forward-looking, so gold traders are focused on longer-term Fed policy outlook. At this point, the market expects that Fed will raise rates in December and January.
Interestingly, Treasury yields were mixed as bond traders reacted to inflation data. The yield of 2-year Treasuries climbed towards 4.81%, while the yield of 10-year Treasuries pulled back to 5.19%. I’d note that yields have pulled back from session highs, but this pullback did not provide any support to gold markets.
U.S. dollar rallied against a broad basket of currencies as forex traders bet on hawkish Fed. Strong dollar served as an additional bearish catalyst for gold markets.
Currently, gold is trying to settle below the $4100 level. In case this attempt is successful, gold will head towards the nearest support, which is located in the $4000 – $4020 range. A move below the $4000 level will open the way to the test of the $3950 level.
High oil prices, rising inflation readings, and therefore hawkish central banks… All these factors have badly impacted the precious metals markets. But investors cannot see the big picture the US economy is facing. The surging debt and the rising money supply are the real upside factors for both gold and silver.
US national debt
Source: US Debt Clock.org
As I have written in my previous publications, US national debt has recently surpassed the $40 trillion mark. The debt-to-GDP ratio has been substantially above the critical 100% mark for a while, which makes it very expensive to service thanks to the higher rates for longer. It is now around 123%, substantially above the 52.31% reported in 1960, 34.68% reported in 1980, or even the 55.85% in 2000.
Rising national debt is the direct result of many years of budget deficits recorded in the US. High debt obviously leads to more money printing by the Fed to service that debt.
Money supplyThat is why over the past ten years, the US M2 money supply has increased by $10 trillion to reach $23.34 trillion. Particularly dramatic was the 2020 pandemic surge, which happened during the unprecedented quantitative easing (QE) program taken by the Fed to get the paralyzed economy going. Every time the Fed launches its QE program, the money supply rises.
Source: TradingView
How much should precious metals cost?According to the US Debt Clock.org website, given the amount of liquidity there is in the US economy, silver should cost $1,515 per ounce, while gold should cost no less than $11,969 per ounce. The dollar-to-silver and the dollar-to-gold ratios are the following:
Source: US Debt Clock.org
In other words, for every ounce of gold there are 11,969 US dollars, while for every ounce of silver there are 1,515 US dollars.
Also, as can be seen from the excerpt above, it is highly risky to hold precious metals in paper form: the paper-to-silver ratio is a whopping 406. This suggests that for every ounce of physical silver, there are 406 ounces of paper silver. As for gold, there are 153 ounces of paper gold for every physical ounce of the yellow metal.
But it does not mean that gold and silver prices rise merely to cover for inflation.
Below is a diagram showing the median house prices in the US.
Median house price in the US history
Source: The Federal Reserve
Right now, the median house price in the US is lingering near the $400,000 mark. Let us divide that number by the current silver price of $60 per ounce. We will get 6667 silver ounces that can be used to buy a house.
Historical silver prices
Source: Macrotrends
In 1980, the average house price was $64,000; in 2000, it was $170,000, while in 2011 it was $200,000. In 1980, silver cost $32 per ounce; in 2000 it was worth $5 per ounce, while in 2011 it was $40.
So, in 1980, you could have bought a house with just 2,000 ounces of gold; in 2000, the price was a whopping 40,000 silver ounces, while in 2011 it was 5,000. So, silver does not appreciate with inflation. It is a volatile precious metal, and it does not move in the same direction as house prices.
House prices can also be measured in gold ounces.
Gold prices history
Source: Macrotrends
In 1980, gold cost $500 per ounce; in 2000, $270; in 2011, $1,700. Let us divide the average house prices by the per-ounce gold prices recorded in each of these years. In 1980, it was possible to buy a house with just 128 ounces; in 2000, 630, while in 2011 it was possible with just 118. Again, gold prices surge and fall, not in accordance with inflation or other asset prices.
Conclusion The US debt and the money supply are surging fast, thus making precious metals seem even more attractive to investors than they used to be in the past. Given the M2 money supply, silver price should be $1,515 per ounce, while gold should cost no less than $11,969 per ounce. But it is important to know that gold and silver prices do not only move in accordance with inflation, and silver is much more volatile than gold.
XAU/USD Forecast: Goldman's $5,235 Outlook Faces Fresh Inflation Test Goldman Sachs expects gold prices to recover over twelve months, but stronger US inflation puts renewed pressure on its case for limited Fed tightening. Goldman Sachs's forecast for gold to reach $5,235 an ounce in twelve months faces a more difficult near-term rates outlook after US underlying inflation proved stronger than expected on Wednesday.
Spot bullion traded near $4,090 an ounce, down around 1.6% against its previous close, leaving the bank's projection roughly 28% above the latest price.
Image: Gold price vs USD reaction to US inflation release on Wednesday. Goldman's optimism rests heavily on central-bank purchases, while its strategists acknowledge that tighter monetary policy can discourage investment demand well before those longer-term buyers lift prices.
The bank had already lowered its end-2026 gold target to $4,650 an ounce, explaining that "a more hawkish Fed might weigh on ETF demand in the near term."
Inflation leaves gold competing with interest income The September US inflation release showed core prices rising 0.3% on the month, above Goldman's pre-release estimate of 0.24%.
Higher expected interest rates raise the income investors give up by holding gold, which pays none.
Goldman's strategists had identified that pressure before Wednesday's figures: "Commodities remain volatile given Middle East tensions, while more hawkish central banks and rising real rates have also weighed on Gold."
The latest pressure followed a respite earlier in the year, when energy prices and market inflation expectations fell together.
Goldman writes: "Market-based inflation momentum fell sharply in Q2, ahead of the macro data, as energy prices and breakeven inflation declined, unlocking rate relief and supporting risky assets."
"Since Q3, however, it has risen again amid higher energy prices and ongoing Middle East tensions."
Its economists still expect that renewed inflation pressure to fade.
"The global bond sell-off accelerated owing to sticky inflation and Middle East tensions combined with resilient growth, fiscal concerns, hawkish central banks and intensifying capital competition from the AI capex boom."
"The rise has been led by front-end and real yields, leaving market pricing considerably more hawkish than our economists' baseline, which assumes limited core inflationary pressures will constrain central bank tightening."
"Given our baseline of normalising inflation, peaking energy prices and more dovish central banks, 10-year bonds should gradually move from headwind to hedge in portfolios."
Wednesday's core reading complicates that argument because the rise cannot be attributed entirely to food and energy.
It does not establish a new twelve-month inflation trend, but it supplies less reassurance for a quick retreat in rate expectations.
Goldman also identifies a route to lower yields through weaker growth rather than an immediate improvement in inflation.
Its strategists write: "The clearest route to a near-term peak in global yields would be tighter financial conditions weakening growth sentiment; recent pressure in corporate and sovereign credit suggests the sell-off may already be approaching a speed limit."
Reserve buying supports the longer view Goldman describes continued central-bank diversification as "the main structural driver of their constructive gold view", distinguishing reserve managers' purchases from the exchange-traded fund demand most exposed to changes in the Fed outlook.
The split between longer-term buyers and rate-sensitive investors also featured in Exchange Rates UK's coverage of BofA's uneven gold recovery outlook.
Goldman's analysis gives European investors another reason to hold bullion, beyond anticipating lower US interest rates.
"We also see more value in Gold for European investors that try to reduce EUR exposure and hedge further increases in EU sovereign risk premia."
Gold can therefore attract demand as protection against European fiscal instability while still suffering from higher US borrowing costs.
Goldman's caution on the timing of rate relief is explicit: "Although front-end rates are increasingly skewed to the downside, energy-price volatility and monetary policy uncertainty remain elevated."
Gold prices FAQ What is Goldman Sachs's twelve-month gold forecast?
Goldman forecasts $5,235 per troy ounce in twelve months, roughly 28% above the Wednesday price used in this article.
Has Goldman become more cautious about gold?
Its end-2026 target was reduced to $4,650, reflecting the risk that a more hawkish Fed restrains ETF demand.
Why does Goldman still expect a gold recovery?
It identifies central-bank diversification as the main structural support, alongside a broader expectation that inflation and rate pressure will ease.
For two weeks running, gold has been unable to break out of the $4,050–4,200 per ounce trading range and is falling for the third day in a row ahead of the release of key US inflation data for September. High oil prices, Treasury bond yields and a strong dollar are putting pressure on the precious metal. At the same time, strong investment demand and central bank purchases of bullion are preventing it from collapsing.
According to Invesco, capital outflows from gold-focused ETFs in the first half of the year were replaced by inflows in the third quarter. Meanwhile, holdings in specialised exchange-traded funds rose to 12-month highs, and September was the strongest month since 2022. In the company’s view, this trend will support the price in the long term.
Conversely, Bank of America believes that capital flows into ETFs track prices. Therefore, a price decline will reduce holdings, further driving the sell-off. The bank forecasts a decline in the average price per ounce to $4,000 in the fourth quarter.
This is partly due to central banks’ waning interest in purchasing bullion. Kazakhstan provides a telling example. Gold accounted for 78% of its gold and foreign exchange reserves, but the central bank plans to reduce this to 75% by the end of the year, focusing instead on purchases of US dollar-denominated Treasuries amid rising yields.
Consequently, support for gold is becoming increasingly fragile. That said, the pressure on gold is also gradually easing. Markets are starting to realise that they had expected too much when forecasting three Fed rate rises over the next 12 months. John Williams, President of the highly influential Federal Reserve Bank of New York, said that rates may not rise in 2027. If so, Treasury bond yields risk falling, dragging the US dollar down with them.
The release of US inflation data and Kevin Warsh’s speech in Bangkok will serve as a litmus test for gold. Against the backdrop of accelerating CPI, hawkish rhetoric from the Fed Chair could push prices below $4,000. Conversely, if Williams maintains his dovish stance, it could provide a springboard for a rally above $4,200 per ounce.
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Gold's Longer-Term Buyers and Short-Term Traders Are Pulling Apart BofA's gold price forecast allows for a weaker finish to 2026 before a 2027 recovery, while HSBC's demand case faces competition from yields and the Dollar. Bank of America expects gold's recovery to lose some momentum later in 2027, with $5,000 an ounce marking the strongest part of its quarterly forecasts.
Its projections put bullion at $4,000 in the fourth quarter of 2026 and $5,000 in the second and third quarters of 2027, before a 10% retreat in the final quarter.
At the time of writing, spot gold traded near $4,166 an ounce, down 0.12% on Tuesday, after losing 6.64% during September.
HSBC sees demand support despite higher yields HSBC Asset Management retains a positive bias towards gold over an investment horizon exceeding 12 months.
Its October assessment says: "The gold price has been resilient, supported by central-bank demand, investment inflows, and macroeconomic uncertainty. Momentum remains constructive despite intermittent volatility and shifting rate expectations. Geopolitical risks and reserve diversification should support prices, but elevated yields and a stronger US dollar remain risks".
Gold pays no interest, so higher bond returns raise the income investors forgo by holding it.
The US Treasury's 10-year yield stood at 5.24% on 9 October, illustrating the competition bullion still faces.
Goldman's trading desk noted on 9 October: "Even with US real rates at multi-decade highs, gold has held above $4,100/oz, reinforcing its appeal as a hedge against geopolitical risk and rising fiscal strain."
HSBC also expects the US currency to remain supported initially: "Near-term, the dollar is expected to be supported by the resilient US economy, Fed tightening, favourable rate differentials, and heightened geopolitical risk and safe-haven demand. On longer-term valuation measures, the dollar still looks expensive. Structural diversification away from the dollar remains a long-term theme".
A dearer Dollar makes bullion more expensive for buyers using other currencies, even when they want protection from geopolitical or fiscal risks.
Image: Gold price in USD 48-hour chart. Goldman's desk sees room for investors to rebuild exposure Goldman Sachs's desk also sees potential for renewed buying: investors following systematic strategies have already cut their exposure sharply.
Its latest US Equities Weekly Rundown says: "Gold showed resilience, rising 1.3% WoW as the FOMC rate-path outlook looks more stable and the UST market found modest relief following the 10-year and 30-year auctions. Despite a challenging macro backdrop, sustained central-bank buying and persistent ETF inflows continued to underpin prices".
Gold has weakened since the report's 9 October cutoff.
The World Gold Council's September review shows how uneven investor demand has been: "Yet September was unusual: despite the price decline, global gold ETFs recorded US$10bn (67t) of inflows across regions."
Futures selling can outweigh those purchases over shorter periods, the divergence examined in our recent UBS gold outlook.
Goldman's desk writes: "Investor positioning has reset meaningfully: systematic strategies are very short, at the 0th percentile on a 1yr lookback per GS' models, while CFTC managed-money net length has normalized to average levels".
The distinction between deeply bearish systematic strategies and average managed-money exposure leaves room for some investors to return without assuming the whole market is underinvested.
Price gains could prompt bearish traders to buy back positions.
Goldman's desk makes that prospect conditional: "This should create a favorable setup if recent momentum persists."
Gold price predictions FAQ What is Bank of America's gold forecast?
BofA projects $4,000 an ounce for Q4 2026 and $5,000 for Q2 and Q3 2027, followed by a 10% decline in its Q4 projection.
Why does HSBC remain positive on gold?
HSBC cites central-bank demand, investment inflows, geopolitical risks and reserve diversification, while warning that high yields and a stronger Dollar can weigh on prices.
What does Goldman's gold positioning analysis show?
Its desk says systematic strategies are at the bottom of their one-year positioning range. A sustained price rebound could encourage renewed buying.
, /PRNewswire/ -- GoldMining Inc. (the "Company" or "GoldMining") (TSX: GOLD) (NYSE American: GLDG) is pleased to announce the appointment of Alexandre Soares Pimenta as Project Director for its 100%-owned São Jorge Gold Project ("São Jorge" or the "Project"), located in Pará State, Brazil. Mr. Pimenta will lead the advancement of the Project, including the commencement of pre-feasibility activities and infill diamond drilling designed to support further evaluation and development planning.
Highlights:
Experienced Project Leadership: Mr. Pimenta joins the São Jorge team with more than 25 years of experience in mining, metallurgy, engineering and large-scale industrial project development, including senior roles at ORE Investments, Gerdau, Mineração Morro do Ipê, Alcoa World Alumina and Samarco Mineração. Pre-Feasibility Activities Commencing: The Company is initiating technical and engineering work to advance the Project beyond its previously completed preliminary economic assessment (the "PEA") and to evaluate the requirements for a potential future development decision. Infill Drilling Program: GoldMining is in the final stages of preparing for an infill diamond core drilling program with multiple drill rigs to improve the definition of the São Jorge deposit. Alastair Still, Chief Executive Officer of GoldMining, commented: "We are very pleased to welcome Alexandre to lead our efforts to advance the São Jorge Project. His extensive experience delivering major mining projects in Brazil, combined with his expertise in engineering, project execution and capital management, will be invaluable as we progress the Project into its next phase. With our proposed infill drilling program in the final stages of planning and preparation and with pre-feasibility activities commencing, we are focused on further defining the deposit and advancing the technical work required to evaluate São Jorge's development potential."
About Alexandre Pimenta
Mr. Pimenta is a mechanical engineer and mining executive with more than 25 years of experience spanning engineering, feasibility studies, project implementation, construction, commissioning, operations, and capital investment management. Throughout his career, he has led multidisciplinary teams and major capital projects in Brazil, with experience across the full project lifecycle, from early-stage technical studies and investment evaluation through construction and operational ramp-up. Most recently, he served as CEO of Ativa Mineração and Director of Engineering at ORE Investments.
Mr. Pimenta holds a bachelor's degree in mechanical engineering from the Federal University of Minas Gerais (UFMG), an MBA in Innovation in Maintenance from PUC Minas, and a postgraduate specialization in Business Management from Fundação Dom Cabral.
As Project Director, Mr. Pimenta will oversee the coordination of technical studies, engineering, project planning and implementation strategy, working with GoldMining's technical team and external consultants to advance São Jorge through its next phase of evaluation.
About São Jorge
The São Jorge Gold Project is located in the Tapajós gold district in Pará State, Brazil, adjacent to regional highway BR-163. It is a granite-hosted, intrusion-related gold mineral system that is similar in style to the Tocantinzinho gold mine, located approximately 80 km to the northwest, which commenced commercial production in 2024 and produced 171,871 ounces of gold in 2025. Operational results at the Tocantinzinho gold mine are not necessarily indicative of mineralization at São Jorge.
On June 11, 2026, the Company announced a PEA for São Jorge that envisaged a conventional open-pit operation and gravity/leach circuit processing 5,500 tonnes per day ("tpd") (1.9 million tonnes per annum ("Mtpa")) over a 10.6-year mine life. The PEA modelled a base case after-tax net present value at a 5% discount rate ("NPV5%") of US$532 million and an after-tax internal rate of return ("IRR") of 42.4%, utilizing a base case gold price of US$3,500 per ounce ("oz"), supported by a stable production profile averaging 51,250 oz of gold annually.
The PEA is preliminary in nature and includes inferred mineral resources, which are considered too speculative geologically to have the economic considerations applied to them that would enable them to be categorized as Mineral Reserves. There is no certainty that the PEA, including the conceptual economics set out therein, will be realized.
Further information about the PEA referenced in this news release, including information in respect of data verification, key assumptions, parameters, risks and other factors, can be found in the technical report titled "NI 43-101 Technical Report and Preliminary Economic Assessment, São Jorge Project, Pará State, Brazil" with an effective date of June 9, 2026 (the "Technical Report"), which is available under the Company's profile on SEDAR+ at www.sedarplus.ca.
Qualified Person
Tim Smith, P.Geo., VP Exploration of GoldMining, a "qualified person" as defined in National Instrument 43-101 - Standards of Disclosure for Mineral Projects ("NI 43-101″), has supervised the preparation of, verified and approved the scientific and technical information contained in this news release.
About GoldMining Inc.
GoldMining Inc. is a public mineral exploration company focused on acquiring and developing gold assets in the Americas. Through its disciplined acquisition strategy, GoldMining now controls a diversified portfolio of resource-stage gold and gold-copper projects in Canada, the U.S.A., Brazil, Colombia and Peru.
Cautionary Statement on Forward-looking Statements
Certain of the information contained in this news release constitutes "forward-looking information" and "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of applicable Canadian and U.S. securities laws ("forward-looking statements"), which involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause the Company's actual results, performance and achievements to be materially different from the results, performance or achievements expressed or implied therein. Forward-looking statements, which are all statements other than statements of historical fact, include, but are not limited to, statements regarding the the scope and expected outcomes of pre-feasibility activities, the timing, scope and objectives of the proposed infill drilling program, the potential for any future development decision, the results of the PEA, the expected benefits of the appointment of the new Project Director, the Company's plans and expectations regarding future opportunities and proposed work and future studies at the Project and the Company's other plans and expectations regarding the Project. Forward-looking statements are based on the then-current expectations, beliefs, assumptions, estimates and forecasts about the business and the markets in which GoldMining operates. Investors are cautioned that all forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties, including: the inherent risks involved in the exploration and development of mineral properties, fluctuating metal prices, unanticipated costs and expenses, risks related to government and environmental regulation, social, permitting and licensing matters and uncertainties relating to the availability and costs of financing needed in the future. These risks, as well as others, including those set forth in GoldMining's Annual Information Form for the year ended November 30, 2025, and other filings with Canadian securities regulators and the SEC, could cause actual results and events to vary significantly. Accordingly, readers should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. There can be no assurance that forward-looking statements, or the material factors or assumptions used to develop such forward-looking statements, will prove to be accurate. The Company does not undertake to update any forward-looking statements, except in accordance with applicable securities law.
Gold (XAU/USD) drifts lower on Wednesday, extending losses for a third consecutive day as buyers remain on the sidelines ahead of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report due at 12:30 GMT. Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) also steadies following Tuesday’s pullback. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades around $4,142, down 0.45% on the day.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, trades around 102.25 after touching an intraday low of 102.08.
Market expectations point to another pickup in US inflation, with headline CPI seen rising 0.6% in September after a 0.4% increase in August. Annual inflation is expected to climb to 3.6% from 3.4%. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, is expected to ease to 0.2% MoM from 0.3%, while the annual rate is forecast to tick up to 2.5% from 2.4%.
The report could reshape expectations for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) next move. Ahead of the release, traders assign a 78% probability that the central bank will leave interest rates unchanged at its October 27-28 meeting, while pricing in a 90% chance of a rate hike in December, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
ING strategists expect today’s US inflation data to come in slightly firmer than the market anticipates, projecting that “MoM US CPI [will] be 0.1pp higher than consensus in both headline and core.” In their view, such a print “shouldn’t be enough for markets to price in 50%+ chances of an October Fed hike,” but it would “reinforce expectations of further tightening down the road and, by extension, the Dollar’s floor.”
They see scope for only a modest repricing of near-term Fed risk, saying that “markets may marginally increase expectations for an October hike,” and emphasise that “for pricing to return above 50% (now 20%) we probably need to see headline close to 1.0% MoM and/or core at 0.4% MoM today.”
Higher energy prices linked to Middle East tensions remain a key driver of inflation. Persistent threats to Oil supplies raise the risk that elevated fuel costs will keep inflation above the Fed’s 2% target for longer. Against this backdrop, New York Fed President John Williams said on Tuesday that it “may be appropriate to have one more rate hike” in 2026. However, he currently sees no need for further increases in 2027 and expects inflation to move toward the central bank’s target next year.
Gold’s near-term direction now hinges on the US inflation report. A softer-than-expected reading could offer some relief, but the prospect of another Fed rate hike may keep gains limited, as higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding metal.
XAU/USD remains largely confined to the $4,100-$4,200 range seen since the start of the month, while trading below the 50-day, 100-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) on the daily chart.
Momentum indicators point to consolidation. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 42 remains below the neutral 50 mark, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has turned slightly positive, suggesting limited directional conviction.
On the topside, initial resistance lies at the $4,200 psychological mark, followed by the 100-day SMA at $4,249 and the 50-day SMA at $4,337. A stronger recovery would face the $4,400 horizontal barrier ahead of the 200-day SMA at $4,525.
On the downside, initial support stands at $4,100. A sustained break below this level could open the door toward the $4,000-$3,950 support zone.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
A hot core does the opposite and it does it fast. December is already at 90% and an upside surprise closes the last exit. Sellers get a clean shot below the midpoint with nobody arguing the other side.
PPI and retail sales follow Thursday. One number does not turn the rate story. A soft CPI followed by firm producer prices and strong spending takes the gift right back. Gold needs softness across more than one print this week before the rate trade starts to loosen.
Nobody Is Trading October
New York Fed President John Williams still sees the possibility of one more rate increase this year. Governor Christopher Waller said higher Treasury yields are reflecting stronger growth, not unanchored inflation expectations. October is a free pass. December is not.
CME FedWatch has October at 22% and December near 90%. Nobody is trading the next meeting. December is the one that matters and CPI sets the odds.
The dollar index was near 102.16 Wednesday after sliding 0.35% Tuesday. That is helping gold hold its range. It does not change the larger problem. It is not a real dollar move. The market is standing down ahead of CPI and a hot print brings dollar buyers right back.
Beige Book and Fed speakers are background until the data hits. CPI changes the rate probabilities. Nothing else on the calendar does.
Oil Bid Is Not Helping the Rate Case
Oil moved higher after Saudi Arabia said an administrative building belonging to Saudi Aramco in Dhahran was attacked. That puts supply risk back in the energy market and keeps the inflation argument alive.
Gold holding while oil rises tells you something. Sellers should be pressing this market lower on the rate story. They are not getting it done. Oil is getting in the way. But that is not a reason to go long either. Gold traders already know what rising crude does to the rate case.
Gold is holding here. It has not earned a rally.
What to Watch
Three reports in 48 hours and none of them are priced yet. CPI is the one that resets the December odds. PPI and retail sales either confirm that reaction or take it apart. The Aramco bid in oil is keeping inflation pressure alive when gold needs it to go away. The dollar backing off is the only thing preventing sellers from pressing the break. Take the dollar away with a hot CPI print and gold loses its last excuse to hold this range.
The bias stays down with the downtrend on the daily swing chart and the main top compressing closer to the market. The $4,141.97 midpoint is the line. Gold has held it for three sessions but holding is not building a base. A break through $4,217.40 changes the trend and could force short-covering. Under the midpoint, $4,066.54 is where sellers are aiming.
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Gold (XAU/USD) extends losses on Wednesday, despite the lower US Treasury yields, with investors looking from the sidelines ahead of the release of September’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report and speeches from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials due later in the day. The XAU/USD pair has retreated below the $4,150 level after rejection at the $4,200 area on Monday, with technical indicators showing building bearish momentum.
Fed officials failed to provide any significant support to the US Dollar on Tuesday. New York Fed President John Williams said in a Bloomberg interview that the US central bank might have to raise interest rates once more this year, but he also affirmed that he sees no need to hike borrowing costs higher in 2027.
These comments contrast with the market expectations of at least two interest rate hikes next year, and increase interest in Wednesday's US CPI figures and Thursday’s Producer Price Index (PPI) data. The market consensus anticipates a further acceleration in consumer prices in September that would pave the path for another Fed rate hike, most likely in December.
XAU/USD is showing a growing bearish momentum after failing to break the top of the monthly trading range, at the $4,230 area earlier this week. The 4-hour Relative Strength Index (14) has dipped below the key 50 level, hinting at fading bullish pressure, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) turned negative, reinforcing a corrective bias after the recent advance.
Price action has extended below Monday's and Tuesday's lows, in the $4,150 area, bringing the range bottom in the $4,070 area into focus. A confirmation below here would expose the $4,000 psychological area.
On the topside, a break of the mentioned $4,230 area (October 2 high) would confirm an inverted Head & Shoulders (H&S) pattern and shift the focus to the September 25 high, a few pips above $4,300.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
(This story was corrected on October 14 at 09:50 GMT to say that XAU/USD reached session lows below $4,150 and not session highs, as previously stated)
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
