Gold Talking Points: While rate cuts amidst high inflation drove a massive breakout in gold back in 2024 the possibility of inflation-fueled rate hikes has driven a 28% pullback in the metal. The $4k level was initially taken-out last October as rate cuts fueled the rally but that price has become a massive spot of contention with buyers stepping in on tests below over the past month.
It’s been a brutal four-month stretch for Gold and that statement really can be spanned back to six months, as it was January 29th when the metal had set its current all-time-high just below $5600/oz. The initial pullback from that move was violent, with prices testing just above the $4400 handle a few days later, but that move was bid as late-stage buyers posed a bounce, and that move inevitably topped out at a lower-high of $5400/oz in early-March.
Since then, sellers have very much been in-charge with lower-lows and lower-highs, but over the past month they’ve largely been stalled as we’ve seen continued buying interest upon tests below the $4k level.
Gold Weekly Chart Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview Gold: All About $4k On the initial approach towards the $4k level back in March, buyers stepped in about $100 before the big figure could come into play. That bounce, like the bounce from the $5600 reversal, was faded by sellers, leaving another lower-high on the chart. In the four months since, buyers have continued to show demand around the $4k level although that’s been slipping of late.
As to where sellers have been showing more aggression, we have lower-highs at both $4200 and $4100 and that sets up for some important context as the $4k support test from the weekly chart has continued, as each of those prices represent waypoints that buyers will need to take out to exhibit greater control of the trend in Gold.
Gold Four-Hour Price Chart Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview Gold Strategy Moving Forward Last week saw two tests and failures at $4100 following below expected inflation data out of the US, and this further indicates that sellers are using bounces to build positions in the metal. When that sees initial signs of change, then we can begin to plot for bigger picture bullish themes, with that price and $4200 both representing important spots on the chart with which sellers have so far exhibited control.
Outside of that, sellers have an open door to make a move as the daily chart can be argued as a descending triangle formation, which is a bearish continuation pattern marked by horizontal support to go along with lower-highs. The logic being that successive bounces from that horizontal support are bringing less and less buying activity, and a persistent effort from sellers can, eventually, play through to a downside break of that important line-in-the-sand.
In that bearish scenario, spots of prior resistance-turned-support stand out, just below both $3900 and $3800, with the levels specifically plotted at $3895 and $3791.
Gold Daily Chart Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview --- written by James Stanley, Senior Market Analyst, Global Macro
The gold market has bounced a bit during the early part of the trading session on Monday, as we continue to see the death cross loom large. At this point in time, the market still watches several things at once.
Gold Technical Analysis
Gold is consolidating just above $4,000, below both EMAs, after retreating from its highs. Source: TradingView. The gold market has bounced a bit during the early part of the trading session on Monday, as the $4,000 level is psychologically and structurally important at the moment. Buyers come back in despite the fact that interest rates have crept up a little bit higher during the trading session in the United States, but nothing major. The $4,000 level, I think, is a scene that a lot of people are watching very closely. It makes a lot of sense, and it is good for headlines.
We have had the Death Cross recently, where the 50-day EMA breaks down below the 200-day EMA, but that makes for good headlines. This is a situation that sometimes ends up being a bit late, so I always keep that in mind as well.
Geopolitical Drivers and Downside Risks The market right now is more or less paying close attention to what’s going on in the Middle East and trying to discern whether or not traders are going to continue to see this as an area that matters. This is a market that has a lot of noise, and I don’t see that changing in the current environment.
If the market were to break down below the $3,900 level, it would be a breach of a fresh new low, and history suggests that the next potential market memory spot is somewhere near the $3,500 level. If the US dollar continues to strengthen, that very well could be the case, but do keep in mind that both can rise. It doesn’t have to be a situation where a higher dollar means lower gold.
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GBP/USD Rises as Markets Await Burnham's First Cabinet GBP/USD is edging higher on Monday, adding to last week’s gains as Andy Burnham prepares to replace Keir Starmer as UK Prime Minister.
Investors will be watching today's Cabinet announcement and Burnham's first major speech for clues on the new government's fiscal priorities.
Particular attention will be on whether Shabana Mahmood is confirmed as Chancellor. She is viewed by markets as a centrist, and her appointment would reassure investors that Burnham is not looking to ramp up spending or pursue the more expansionary fiscal policies some had feared.
Even so, uncertainty remains over Burnham's broader economic agenda. Fiscal credibility is likely to remain central to market sentiment, helping to keep gilt yields contained and providing support for sterling.
Alongside domestic politics, this is a busy week for UK economic data, with labour market figures due on Tuesday, inflation on Wednesday and retail sales on Friday.
The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.9%, while CPI inflation is forecast to ease to 2.4% from 2.8%, which could lower BoE rate hike expectations.
However, any improvement in inflation may prove temporary. Oil prices have continued to rise following renewed U.S.-Iran hostilities, increasing the risk that higher energy costs feed through into inflation over the coming months.
A softer-than-expected inflation reading could weigh on sterling in the near term, although stronger retail sales—supported by warmer weather and the FIFA World Cup—could provide some offset.
Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar remains under pressure following softer-than-expected CPI and PPI data earlier this month. However, rising oil prices could revive inflation concerns, supporting Treasury yields, Federal Reserve rate expectations and safe-haven demand for the dollar.
GBP/USD Forecast – Technical Analysis
GBP/USD has recovered from the 1.3200 support zone, rising above the 200-day EMA to a high of 1.3550 before pulling back below the former trendline support, which has now become resistance.
Buyers will need to reclaim 1.3485, where horizontal resistance coincides with the falling trendline. A move above this level would bring 1.3550 back into focus before exposing the 1.3600 psychological level.
Failure to reclaim 1.3485 could see the pair retest the 200-day SMA around 1.3390.
Below there, 1.3340 becomes the next key support level, with a break exposing the 1.3200 support zone.
Gold Holds Near Two-Week Low as Higher Oil Prices Revive Inflation Concerns Gold is little changed on Monday as investors assess the impact of escalating Middle East tensions, which continue to push oil prices higher and strengthen the case for the Federal Reserve to maintain a hawkish policy stance.
The precious metal fell 2.5% last week and is broadly unchanged so far in July after declining for four consecutive months, losing almost 25% over that period.
The outlook remains challenging following last week's 15% surge in oil prices, with crude extending gains at the start of this week as U.S. forces carry out strikes against Iran for a ninth consecutive day and concerns persist over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
As long as the conflict continues to support higher energy prices, investors are likely to remain concerned that inflation could prove more persistent, delaying any shift towards easier Federal Reserve policy.
That backdrop is weighing on non-yielding assets such as gold.
Cleveland Federal Reserve President Beth Hammack was the latest policymaker to suggest that further interest rate increases may still be required if inflation fails to ease sufficiently.
Markets are now pricing an 82% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike by December, up from 73% a week ago, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
One supportive factor for gold has been continued central bank buying.
Purchases by the People's Bank of China accelerated in June, marking the largest monthly increase in three years and extending its buying streak to 20 consecutive months.
For now, the $4,000 level continues to provide support.
With little major U.S. economic data due this week ahead of next week's Federal Reserve meeting, traders are likely to remain focused on developments in the Middle East, oil prices and their implications for inflation.
Gold Forecast – Technical Analysis
Gold has broken below its symmetrical triangle pattern and the 200-day EMA, falling to a low of 3,940.
The price remains below the falling trendline as well as both the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, reinforcing the bearish technical picture. The 50-day EMA has also crossed below the 200-day EMA, generating a bearish crossover signal.
A break below 3,940 would expose 3,800, followed by 3,700.
To improve the outlook, buyers would first need to reclaim 4,100 before targeting 4,200, where the falling trendline and the July high converge.
A move above this resistance would expose the 200-day EMA around 4,310, followed by the June swing high near 4,370.
Only a sustained break above those levels would bring 4,500 back into focus.
Gold prices remained broadly unchanged in United Arab Emirates on Monday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 474.81 United Arab Emirates Dirhams (AED) per gram, broadly stable compared with the AED 474.54 it cost on Friday.
The price for Gold was broadly steady at AED 5,538.14 per tola from AED 5,534.89 per tola on friday.
Unit measure
Gold Price in AED
1 Gram
474.81
10 Grams
4,748.14
Tola
5,538.14
Troy Ounce
14,768.37
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in United Arab Emirates by adapting international prices (USD/AED) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices remained broadly unchanged in India on Monday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 12,475.40 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, broadly stable compared with the INR 12,463.91 it cost on Friday.
The price for Gold was broadly steady at INR 145,510.50 per tola from INR 145,376.60 per tola on Friday.
Unit measure
Gold Price in INR
1 Gram
12,475.40
10 Grams
124,753.90
Tola
145,510.50
Troy Ounce
388,037.30
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices rose in Pakistan on Monday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 35,945.31 Pakistani Rupees (PKR) per gram, up compared with the PKR 35,906.22 it cost on Friday.
The price for Gold increased to PKR 419,258.50 per tola from PKR 418,803.20 per tola on friday.
Unit measure
Gold Price in PKR
1 Gram
35,945.31
10 Grams
359,453.10
Tola
419,258.50
Troy Ounce
1,118,025.00
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Pakistan by adapting international prices (USD/PKR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices have struggled after a sharp correction from record highs, but Bank of America believes the metal's difficult year could eventually create an attractive entry point for long-term investors.
Gold (XAU/USD) traded near $4,330 on Friday after recovering from June lows below $4,000, although prices remain well below the January peak above $5,500.
Bank of America says gold has experienced a disappointing period after investors initially expected further gains from geopolitical uncertainty and currency debasement concerns.
The bank describes 2026 as a potential "lost year" for gold, with higher real yields, a stronger Dollar and shifting Federal Reserve expectations limiting upside.
However, BofA argues the recent weakness may ultimately prove temporary.
The bank believes the long-term investment case remains supported by central-bank demand, concerns over government debt and ongoing questions around reserve diversification.
Gold's correction has also improved valuations after the strong rally seen over recent years, creating the possibility that investors who missed the initial move could return.
Near-Term Gold Price Forecast: BofA Sees Risks but Maintains Long-Term Bullish View While BofA acknowledges that gold may face further short-term volatility if US yields remain elevated, it believes the broader drivers behind the bull market remain intact.
The bank expects falling interest-rate pressure, continued central-bank purchases and renewed investor demand to provide support over the longer term.
Rather than viewing the recent correction as the end of gold's rally, BofA sees it as a potential opportunity for investors waiting for a more attractive entry point.
Spot gold weekly chart shows long-term trend. Source: TradingView Mixed Signals Create a Critical Decision Point The combination of a break below a rising trendline and consistent confirmed resistance at the 20-day moving average, shows long-term and short-term alignment. Although this adds to downward pressure, the reluctance of selling pressure to increase noticeably since last week’s lower swing high, leaves open the possibility for a relatively quick recovery of the two trending indicators. The 20-day moving average is now near $4,071 and Wednesday’s high of $4,081 can be used as a proxy for the indicator.
Lower Support Levels Come into Focus If the current trend low of $3,942 is broken to the downside, the higher swing low of $3,886 becomes a target, and it is at risk of failure as well. A decisive break below that initial target leads to a possible eventual test of support in a range from around $3,702 to $3,650, consisting of the 50% retracement of a prior upswing and the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of a larger previous upswing.
A Reversal Requires Stronger Confirmation Despite the signs of strength indicated by a reclaim of the 20-day moving average, a bullish reversal of structure above last week’s high would be needed for a more reliable sign of a bullish reversal. However, the next upside target is at the falling 50-day moving average at $4,291 and it is rapidly falling towards last week’s high.
If you’d like to know more about how to trade gold and silver, please visit our educational area.
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Gold edges higher by some 0.92% on Friday as the US-Iran conflict boosted energy prices, which ultimately drive inflation higher, increasing expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) might need to raise interest rates. At the time of writing, the XAU/USD trades at $4,013, after reaching a daily low of $3,959.
XAU/USD rises as Middle East escalation revives inflation fearsAttacks between the US and Iran soured market sentiment despite the ongoing recovery in US equity markets. Newswires revealing a further escalation of the war are pushing the non-yielding metal higher.
Axios reported that the Trump administration is sending dozens of additional refueling planes to Israel in preparation for a potential expansion of military operations.
Data-wise, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment for July improved. From 50.7 to 54, due to lower gasoline prices at the pump, the report revealed. Inflation expectations for one year dipped from 4.6% in June to 4.2%, and for five years were steady at 3.3%.
Aside from this, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack was hawkish and expressed concern about persistent high inflation, which is at the top of her list, adding that “inflation is too high.” Hammack added that the labor market is solid and that “growth numbers are good and consumer spending is stable.”
On Thursday, the Fed’s Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said he is open to raising rates if there is no progress toward disinflation.
Money markets estimated a nearly 61% probability of a Fed rate increase at the October 28 meeting, based on Prime Terminal data. For the July meeting, the central bank is anticipated to keep rates steady, with a 76% probability.
Source: Prime TerminalNext week, the US economic docket will feature jobs data and S&P Global Flash PMIs as Fed officials entered their blackout period ahead of the July 29 policy meeting.
XAU/USD technical outlook: Gold recovers but remains bearishGold price is bearishly biased as the downtrend extends despite XAU reclaiming the $4,000 mark after bouncing off $3,959. Nevertheless, momentum remains negative as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is bearish below its 50-neutral level. This signals that further XAU/USD downside is seen, unless buyers clear key technical resistance levels.
For a bearish continuation, the first support is the psychological $4,000. Below this level lies the low of the day at $3,959, ahead of $3,900. A breach of the latter will expose the October 28, 2025 swing low at $3,886.
Conversely, for a bullish reversal, Bullion needs to break above a descending resistance trendline between $4,125 and $4,175. Above this area, and a potential test of the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,291 is on the cards. Beyond that, the 200-day SMA at $4,495 stands as the next obstacle, and once surpassed it could open the way to $4,500.
Gold daily chart Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
High Treasury Yields and Breakdown Risk Drive Bullion Sentiment Ultimately, this is a market that continues to see a lot of choppiness, a lot of noisiness. I think ultimately we are hanging on to a very important support level, and giving that up could bring in more momentum. After all, the market has taken a decidedly ugly turn over the last couple of months as non-yielding assets such as gold continue to take it on the chin.
Traders have preferred to go to the higher-yielding Treasury markets, and despite the fact that yields have slipped a little bit, they are still historically high. Because of this, the market continues to see a lot of concerns about jumping into a big uptrend without some kind of change in attitude, and external factors will need to be aligned.
Thu Lan Nguyen at Commerzbank notes that weaker United States (US inflation data briefly supported Gold, but the price has slipped back below USD 4,000 per troy ounce. With markets still pricing at least one Federal Reserve rate hike and energy-price risks from the Middle East conflict, she sees limited near-term upside, though a more dovish Fed stance could later re-ignite the Gold rally.
Limited upside unless Fed shifts"Weaker US inflation data — both consumer and producer prices surprised with slower growth in June — have dampened expectations for US interest rate hikes. While the market had previously priced in nearly two rate hikes by year-end, only a single 25-basis-point rate hike is now fully priced in. However, this provided only a brief boost to the gold price. Yesterday, it slipped back below the USD 4,000 per troy ounce mark, where it is currently trading."
"In the short term, further upside potential is likely to remain limited. With the ongoing escalation of the Middle East conflict and the resulting risk of another sharp spike in energy prices, expectations of interest rate hikes are likely to persist for some time."
"A correction, regardless of developments in the US-Iran conflict, is likely to occur only if the market's assessment of the Federal Reserve were to fundamentally change."
"But the picture could also shift again: Warsh, for example, is already suggesting that AI would boost productivity and therefore likely have an inflation-dampening effect. New York Fed President John Williams also recently made similar comments, referring to a long-term downward trend in inflation."
"If this view gains traction within the FOMC, it could mean that interest rate hikes are not considered necessary to combat current inflation."
"The price of gold would then likely benefit not only in the short term from the market pricing out interest rate hikes, but also from the fact that the market perceives increased inflation risks in the long term due to a significantly more dovish stance by the Federal Reserve."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Gold managed to hold trades below 4100 while maintain the drop pressure over market
As we see over the chart market facing support around 3940-45 while resistances at 4017 and 4050-60 which may hold this trading zone
Below 3940 more drops may hit the market while Med-Run support still at 3886 which still protecting the advance wave
Above 4060 more advance toward 4100 and 4200 will be expected
SUPPORT RESISTANCE LEVEL1 3940-45 4017 LEVEL2 3886 4050-60 LEVEL3 3700 4102 Head of Technical Analysis at Orbex, Rami Abu Draa
holds a bachelor's degree in Banking, Finance and Economics. A professional trader and mentor with over 10 years of industry experience, Rami is passionate about sharing his knowledge with Orbex clients from basic to advanced concepts of Technical Analysis, Investment psychology and Investment/Trading methodologies. He is able to combine fundamental and technical principles to deliver a unique perspective on the markets that enables Orbex traders to identify high-probability trading opportunities.
Death Cross Confirmed as Geopolitical Tensions Weigh on Bullion The US dollar could be a bit of a problem here as well; the US dollar strengthening a lot of times will work against gold. But from the structural standpoint, we are still in consolidation. The $3,900 level below is an area that had been supported as well, so it’s possible there is support between $4,000 and $3,900.
Breaking below there, then the historical support can be found at $3,500. Short-term rallies are most certainly possible, but at this point in time, the market looks like it probably needs to convince a lot of traders; it needs to prove itself, and caution will more likely be a route that a lot of traders take as we head into a weekend that almost certainly will feature Middle East headlines again.
Gold trades below $4000 level on Friday following Thursday’s break and daily close below this level (the first close well below the mark since 6 November 2025), after the price moved around 4K for almost one month, but all attacks failed to register a clear break lower.
Fresh violation of very significant 4K support may signal an end of extended directionless phase and continuation of larger downtrend from new record high, if break is sustained.
The metal came under fresh pressure as the latest escalation in the Middle East fuels inflationary risk (also partially offsets optimism from better than expected US June inflation numbers) that underpins the US dollar.
Loss of $4K support zone (including recent spike low at $3942) would expose immediate support at $3886 (28 Oct 2025), followed by $3666 (weekly Ichimoku cloud base) and $3606 (50% retracement of $1613/$5598 uptrend).
Gold is on track for the second consecutive weekly loss, with bearish daily studies contributing to negative scenario.
Conversely, failure to hold gains below $4000 would weaken developing bearish signal and keep the price in prolonged directionless mode, but biased lower as long as recent range top ($4203) stays intact.
The information contained in this document was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed herein are in good faith, but are subject to change without notice. No liability accepted whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this document.
Gold prices rose in United Arab Emirates on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 471.38 United Arab Emirates Dirhams (AED) per gram, up compared with the AED 469.48 it cost on Thursday.
The price for Gold increased to AED 5,498.09 per tola from AED 5,475.88 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in AED
1 Gram
471.38
10 Grams
4,713.81
Tola
5,498.09
Troy Ounce
14,661.61
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in United Arab Emirates by adapting international prices (USD/AED) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices rose in Philippines on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 7,898.31 Philippine Pesos (PHP) per gram, up compared with the PHP 7,867.96 it cost on Thursday.
The price for Gold increased to PHP 92,124.66 per tola from PHP 91,770.38 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in PHP
1 Gram
7,898.31
10 Grams
78,983.37
Tola
92,124.66
Troy Ounce
245,665.00
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Philippines by adapting international prices (USD/PHP) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices rose in Saudi Arabia on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 481.76 Saudi Riyals (SAR) per gram, up compared with the SAR 480.07 it cost on Thursday.
The price for Gold increased to SAR 5,619.25 per tola from SAR 5,599.49 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in SAR
1 Gram
481.76
10 Grams
4,817.68
Tola
5,619.25
Troy Ounce
14,984.61
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Saudi Arabia by adapting international prices (USD/SAR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices rose in Pakistan on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 35,718.35 Pakistani Rupees (PKR) per gram, up compared with the PKR 35,563.21 it cost on Thursday.
The price for Gold increased to PKR 416,604.50 per tola from PKR 414,802.30 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in PKR
1 Gram
35,718.35
10 Grams
357,177.20
Tola
416,604.50
Troy Ounce
1,110,971.00
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Pakistan by adapting international prices (USD/PKR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices rose in Malaysia on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 523.84 Malaysian Ringgits (MYR) per gram, up compared with the MYR 521.57 it cost on Thursday.
The price for Gold increased to MYR 6,110.20 per tola from MYR 6,083.48 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in MYR
1 Gram
523.84
10 Grams
5,238.60
Tola
6,110.20
Troy Ounce
16,292.93
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Malaysia by adapting international prices (USD/MYR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold has reached a bearish technical milestone after broad-based selling pushed XAU/USD to its weakest daily close since October. While the broader trend favours further downside, nearby support levels and relatively subdued options positioning suggest bears may need to stay nimble.
View related analysis:
British Pound Surges on Treasury Pick Bets, GBP/AUD Eyes Breakout Nasdaq 100 Coils Ahead of ASML Earnings as AI Leadership Faces a Test US Dollar Slips, but Gold Bulls Are Not Out of the Woods Japanese Yen Short Covering Raises the Stakes for USD/JPY XAU/USD Posts First Daily Close Below 4,000 Since October Gold Breaks Below 4,000 as Dollar Steadies Gold futures saw a daily close below 4,000 for the first time since October on Thursday. And it didn’t take much of a rise in the US dollar for gold bears to enjoy their breakout. The US dollar index rose just 0.17%, recouping less than a third of the losses accumulated over the previous two days. I had already noted that gold appeared vulnerable to a break lower, given bulls had failed to make any impact despite the US dollar falling a full 1% on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Source: LSEG
Gold's Broad-Based Decline Raises Bearish Risks Gold’s losses weren’t limited to the US dollar either, as it fell against all major currencies by at least 1.6%. Using gold as the benchmark, the Canadian dollar was the strongest major currency against it, with XAU/CAD down 2% on Thursday. Gold was also just shy of 2% lower against the Australian dollar, Japanese yen and euro. Looking at this week’s performance, gold has lost the most ground against the New Zealand dollar. When gold’s performance is consistently weak across the board, it becomes hard to ignore, and that could put traders on guard for a bearish breakout.
Gold Futures (GC) Technical Analysis It is hard to argue with gold's bearish trend overall, given its series of lower lows and lower highs. Yet despite the daily close below 4,000, bulls still appear to be putting up a fight. Thursday's bearish engulfing day only closed marginally below the key psychological level, while the June low at 3955.4 is also close by.
We may see a spike lower during the Asian or European session, although the nearby June low could increase the risk of a bearish shakeout and two-way volatility. The October low, just above 3900, also sits close to the weekly VPOC, providing technical support that could stifle any runaway bearish breakout for now.
While downside risks remain, bears may also want to stay nimble given the cluster of nearby support levels. Lower timeframes may therefore be better suited to managing the increased risk of volatility.
Source: ICE, TradingView
Gold Options Markets Remain Calm Despite the Breakdown A slight word of caution for bears also comes from the options market. Implied volatility is neither rising nor particularly high by this year's standards. Risk reversals also remain elevated, although they edged lower on Thursday to reflect increased demand for puts relative to calls. Yet despite gold trading below its June 11 low, risk reversals remain well above their corresponding lows. That suggests options traders are less concerned about further downside than spot prices currently imply. That view may change if gold eventually breaks below 3,900.
Spot gold weekly chart shows long-term trend. Source: TradingView Next Support Zones Come into Focus Now that gold has been rejected once again from resistance at the 20-day moving average, the developing bearish trend may be ready to proceed with its next leg lower. That would suggest that the prior trend low of $3,942 may be broken on the way to a test of support near the higher swing low of $3,886 from October 2025. There is also a reasonable chance that support may fail to hold near that low, which would provide another bearish reversal signal following the prior upswing.
A decisive decline below $3,886 would likely lead to the next lower target zone from approximately $3,704 to around $3,650, derived from the 50% retracement of a prior upswing and the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of a smaller upswing that is contained within the larger trend structure. There may also be a test of the lower boundary of a falling trend channel near that price zone, depending on when it is reached. Signs of support may emerge near that lower boundary.
Longer-Term Trend Weakness Remains Intact Gold has been progressively weakening overall since the January peak of $5,597. The deterioration in the technical picture began to have longer-term implications in early June when a confirmed breakdown below an uptrend line and the 200-day moving average occurred. Resistance during bounces shifted from the 50-day moving average to the 20-day moving average, reflecting increasing bearish momentum. Three weeks ago, a longer-term uptrend line defining dynamic support was broken to the downside and the area near the line has been confirmed as resistance. Taken together, short-term weakness is now aligned with longer-term weakness, suggesting further downside and reinforcing the bearish outlook.
If you’d like to know more about how to trade gold and silver, please visit our educational area.
Gold (XAU/USD) edges lower on Thursday as traders look past back-to-back softer-than-expected US inflation reports and remain focused on renewed Middle East tensions, which are fueling concerns that higher energy prices could reignite inflationary pressure.
At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades around $4,028, down 0.80% on the day.
Both the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) reports for June came in below market expectations. The softer readings reduced the chances of an imminent Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike, but Gold struggled to gain traction as traders continued to debate whether the Fed could still tighten policy later this year.
Fed officials continue to stress the need to bring inflation sustainably back to the 2% target while noting that the labor market appears to have stabilized. This suggests that the central bank could raise interest rates later this year if inflation proves more persistent.
Elevated borrowing costs reduce Gold's appeal as investors seek higher returns from interest-bearing assets.
Against this backdrop, Gold retains a downside bias, though it has traded broadly between $4,000 and $4,200 in recent weeks after falling to $3,941 in June, its lowest level since November 2025.
Next on the US economic docket are Retail Sales and Initial Jobless Claims data, due at 12:30 GMT. Speeches from Fed officials Lorie Logan and Jeffrey Schmid later in the day will also be watched.
On the geopolitical front, the US carried out a fifth consecutive night of strikes against Iranian targets, while Tehran responded by targeting US assets in Kuwait, Bahrain and Jordan.
Iran also said it would not allow Washington to interfere in the Strait of Hormuz, calling it a "red line." Meanwhile, The Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday that US President Donald Trump was leaning towards expanding military operations.
Technical analysis: Sellers retain control as XAU/USD struggles below $4,200
On the daily chart, XAU/USD keeps a bearish bias as it remains well below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,495 and the 100-day SMA at $4,548.
Price is holding within a downward parallel channel, trading beneath its upper boundary around $4,200, while momentum is mixed. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 40 leans slightly bearish, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains positive, yet with declining histogram bars, hinting that any rebound would still face structural headwinds overhead.
On the topside, immediate resistance is clustered around $4,200, where the horizontal cap and the channel’s upper line converge, before the more significant barriers at the 200-day SMA near $4,496 and the 100-day SMA close to $4,548.
On the downside, initial support appears at the $4,000 horizontal level, with a deeper cushion at the channel floor around $3,800.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Inflation FAQs Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls.
Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money.
Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.
ING strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey report Gold has risen for a second session as softer US producer price data weighs on the Dollar and Treasury yields, reducing expectations of near-term Federal Reserve tightening. Markets now assign a much lower probability to a July rate hike, which supports Gold. However, they caution that ongoing Middle East tensions and elevated energy prices could limit upside.
Lower Fed odds aid bullion"Gold rose for a second straight session as softer-than-expected US producer price data weighed on the dollar and Treasury yields."
"Lower energy costs helped ease inflation pressures, reducing expectations of near-term Federal Reserve tightening."
"Markets now price only a 12% chance of a July rate hike, down from almost 31% a week ago. Lower rate expectations are supportive for gold."
"But we believe upside could remain limited in the near term if Middle East tensions continue to support energy prices and keep inflation risks elevated."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Gold prices fell in Philippines on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 7,991.38 Philippine Pesos (PHP) per gram, down compared with the PHP 8,043.44 it cost on Wednesday.
The price for Gold decreased to PHP 93,209.88 per tola from PHP 93,817.09 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in PHP
1 Gram
7,991.38
10 Grams
79,913.78
Tola
93,209.88
Troy Ounce
248,559.80
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Philippines by adapting international prices (USD/PHP) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices fell in Malaysia on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 528.07 Malaysian Ringgits (MYR) per gram, down compared with the MYR 531.64 it cost on Wednesday.
The price for Gold decreased to MYR 6,159.30 per tola from MYR 6,200.93 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in MYR
1 Gram
528.07
10 Grams
5,280.70
Tola
6,159.30
Troy Ounce
16,424.82
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Malaysia by adapting international prices (USD/MYR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices fell in Pakistan on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 35,858.41 Pakistani Rupees (PKR) per gram, down compared with the PKR 36,098.45 it cost on Wednesday.
The price for Gold decreased to PKR 418,244.40 per tola from PKR 421,045.30 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in PKR
1 Gram
35,858.41
10 Grams
358,583.20
Tola
418,244.40
Troy Ounce
1,115,322.00
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Pakistan by adapting international prices (USD/PKR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices fell in United Arab Emirates on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 476.41 United Arab Emirates Dirhams (AED) per gram, down compared with the AED 479.42 it cost on Wednesday.
The price for Gold decreased to AED 5,556.81 per tola from AED 5,591.87 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in AED
1 Gram
476.41
10 Grams
4,764.24
Tola
5,556.81
Troy Ounce
14,818.06
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in United Arab Emirates by adapting international prices (USD/AED) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
In the latest close session, Gold.com (GOLD - Free Report) was up +1.25% at $39.56. This change outpaced the S&P 500's 0.38% gain on the day. Elsewhere, the Dow saw an upswing of 0.29%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq appreciated by 0.62%.
Coming into today, shares of the precious metals trading company had lost 10.66% in the past month. In that same time, the Finance sector gained 3.3%, while the S&P 500 gained 1.61%.
Market participants will be closely following the financial results of Gold.com in its upcoming release. The company's upcoming EPS is projected at $0.96, signifying a 26.32% increase compared to the same quarter of the previous year. Meanwhile, our latest consensus estimate is calling for revenue of $7.76 billion, up 209.04% from the prior-year quarter.
Regarding the entire year, the Zacks Consensus Estimates forecast earnings of $5.31 per share and revenue of $28.27 billion, indicating changes of +144.7% and +157.52%, respectively, compared to the previous year.
It's also important for investors to be aware of any recent modifications to analyst estimates for Goldcom. These revisions help to show the ever-changing nature of near-term business trends. Consequently, upward revisions in estimates express analysts' positivity towards the business operations and its ability to generate profits.
Research indicates that these estimate revisions are directly correlated with near-term share price momentum. To utilize this, we have created the Zacks Rank, a proprietary model that integrates these estimate changes and provides a functional rating system.
The Zacks Rank system ranges from #1 (Strong Buy) to #5 (Strong Sell). It has a remarkable, outside-audited track record of success, with #1 stocks delivering an average annual return of +25% since 1988. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate has witnessed an unchanged state. Gold.com is holding a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold) right now.
Digging into valuation, Gold.com currently has a Forward P/E ratio of 10.76. This valuation marks a discount compared to its industry average Forward P/E of 11.03.
The Financial - Miscellaneous Services industry is part of the Finance sector. With its current Zacks Industry Rank of 162, this industry ranks in the bottom 35% of all industries, numbering over 250.
The Zacks Industry Rank assesses the strength of our separate industry groups by calculating the average Zacks Rank of the individual stocks contained within the groups. Our research shows that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1.
Don't forget to use Zacks.com to keep track of all these stock-moving metrics, and others, in the upcoming trading sessions.
, /PRNewswire/ - Falcon Gold Corp. (TSXV: FG) (FSE: 3FA) (OTC Pink: FGLDF) ("Falcon" or the "Company") is pleased to announce that it has commenced the drill tender process for its fully permitted Central Canada Gold Project located near Atikokan, Ontario.
"Central Canada continues to emerge as one of the most exciting exploration opportunities in Falcon's portfolio," said Karim Rayani, Chief Executive Officer of Falcon Gold Corp. "With a fully permitted drill program, encouraging results from our previous drilling campaigns and more than a century of historic exploration to build upon, we believe we are well positioned to advance this project toward its next significant discovery."
The Company recently received approval for a diamond drilling program consisting of up to 20 drill holes totaling approximately 2,500 metres. Falcon has invited a number of experienced Canadian diamond drilling contractors to submit tenders for the upcoming exploration program, with contractor selection expected to be completed in the coming weeks.
The planned drill program is designed to follow up on Falcon's previously identified high-grade gold mineralization while testing additional priority targets generated through the integration of historical exploration, diamond drilling, geological mapping, geophysics and structural interpretation.
Exploration and development at the Central Canada Gold Project dates back to the early 1900s, when the property was the site of shaft sinking, underground development and limited historic gold production. During the 1930s, Central Canada Mines Ltd. further advanced the property through underground development and exploration, establishing the project as one of the historic gold occurrences within the Atikokan Gold Camp.
To date, Falcon has successfully completed two phases of diamond drilling at the Central Canada Gold Project. These programs confirmed the presence of high-grade, structurally controlled gold mineralization, including highlights of 10.17 g/t Au over 3.0 metres, including 18.6 g/t Au over 1.0 metre with visible gold, and 2.8 g/t Au over 7.5 metres. These results have significantly enhanced the Company's geological understanding of the project and refined several priority drill targets.
The upcoming drill program will focus on expanding and testing the historic Central Canada Mine Trend (J.J. Walshe Mine Trend) together with several additional prospective gold-bearing structures identified across the property, including the Sugar Shear, Monte Zone, No. 2 Vein, Honey Zone and Hoist Zone. Collectively, these targets represent a broad, district-scale mineralized system that remains only partially evaluated by modern exploration despite more than a century of intermittent exploration.
In addition to advancing the Central Canada Gold Project, Falcon continues to strengthen its strategic position within the Atikokan-Hammond Reef Gold District through the recent acquisition of the West Hammond Contact Property, providing shareholders with exposure to a growing portfolio of highly prospective gold projects in one of Ontario's premier exploration districts.
Following completion of the tender process, the Company expects to award a drilling contract and announce the commencement of the program. Mobilization will be subject to financing, contractor availability and customary operational scheduling.
The Company will continue to provide updates as exploration activities progress.
Qualified Person
The scientific and technical information contained in this news release has been reviewed and approved by Mike Kilbourne, P.Geo., a Qualified Person as defined by National Instrument 43-101 – Standards of Disclosure for Mineral Projects. Mr. Kilbourne is an independent consulting geologist and is at arms length to the Company.
ON BEHALF OF THE BOARD OF DIRECTORS
Karim Rayani
Chief Executive Officer
Falcon Gold Corp.
[email protected]
+1 604 716 0551
About Falcon Gold Corp.
Falcon Gold Corp. is a Canadian mineral exploration company focused on the acquisition, exploration, and advancement of precious and battery metals opportunities across the Americas, with a portfolio spanning established mining camps and emerging exploration districts. Its flagship asset, the Central Canada Gold Project, is located approximately 20 kilometres southeast of Agnico Eagle's Hammond Reef Gold Deposit in northwestern Ontario. The project lies within the highly prospective Quetico Fault Zone, a major regional structural corridor interpreted as a key control on gold mineralization in the district. The Hammond Reef deposit is associated with a northeast-trending structural system linked to this broader regional framework, highlighting the significance of the geological setting. The Central Canada property has a documented exploration and development history spanning more than a century. Early work between 1901 and 1907 included shallow shaft development and small-scale production from high-grade material processed through stamp milling. Between 1930 and 1935, Central Canada Mines Ltd. further advanced the project with deeper underground development, crosscutting, and the installation of a small-scale gold mill. Subsequent exploration programs have included diamond drilling campaigns that returned multiple high-grade gold intercepts, supporting the presence of significant mineralization within the system. Beyond its flagship project, Falcon Gold maintains a diversified portfolio of Canadian exploration assets. This includes a 49% interest in the Burton Gold Property in partnership with IAMGOLD near Sudbury, Ontario, exploration-stage gold targets in British Columbia through the Spitfire and Sunny Boy claims, and the Great Burnt Copper-Gold Project in central Newfoundland.
Cautionary Language and Forward-Looking Statements
This news release may contain "forward-looking statements" and "forward-looking information" (collectively, "forward-looking statements") within the meaning of applicable securities laws, including but not limited to statements relating to the timing and content of future work programs, including planned drilling programs, geological interpretations, receipt of property titles, and other corporate and technical matters. Forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, expectations, estimates, and projections as of the date of this news release and are subject to known and unknown risks, uncertainties, and other factors that may cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied herein. In some cases, forward-looking statements can be identified by terminology such as "may," "should," "intend," "expect," "plan," "anticipate," "believe," "estimate," "project," "potential," or "continue," or the negative of these terms, or other comparable terminology. Forward-looking statements in this news release may include, but are not limited to, statements regarding planned drilling activities on the Central Canada Gold Project, which is currently permitted for up to 20 drill holes, and the interpretation and potential extension of mineralization along structural trends within the project area. There can be no assurance that the Company's exploration programs will proceed as currently contemplated or that they will achieve their intended objectives. Forward-looking statements are inherently subject to significant business, economic, competitive, and geological uncertainties and contingencies. Actual results may differ materially from those currently anticipated. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements, as there can be no assurance that plans, assumptions, or expectations will prove to be accurate.
Neither TSX Venture Exchange nor its Regulation Services Provider (as that term is defined in the policies of the TSX Venture Exchange) accepts responsibility for the adequacy or accuracy of this release.
Gold is defending the $4,000 area within a tight range following a death cross, with $4,200 capping the upside. Source: TradingView. The gold market has been noisy in early trading on Wednesday, initially dropping only to turn around and show some signs of resilience. The $4,000 level sits below, which, of course, is a large, round, psychologically significant figure, and an area that will attract a certain amount of headlines, as financial reporters love these levels.
Recently, we’ve had the 50-day EMA breakdown below the 200-day EMA, kicking off the death cross, which is a longer-term bearish signal for some analysts and can cause a little bit of nerves as well. It’s worth noting that we have pierced the $4,000 level a couple of times recently, and so far, it looks at least like there are buyers underneath that area that are willing to pick up gold, perhaps down to the $3,900 level based on historical price action. This area is one I would be watching very closely if we do, in fact, get there.
AUDUSD (The Australian dollar) remained choppy as consumer confidence jumped out of negative territory.
• As the pair searches for a recovery to the previous swing high at 0.6980, a bearish RSI divergence could signal a halt to the potential rally.
• 0.6960 is the first level to expect some resistance after the recent announcement.
• Further down, 0.6880 at the bottom of the latest bounce is the first layer of support if price action turns around.
• A full reversal can take shape back towards 0.6840 if bears remain in the market.
XAUUSD steadily sinking
Gold continues to be pressured as price action looks to break through the 4000 level.
• On the chart, the metal continues to grind lower after dropping over $100 in just a few short sessions.
• Bulls will need to lift 4120 and then 4190 to make the rebound count.
• Otherwise, renewed selling could send the price below 3930.
UK100 finding support
The index market across the board looks for a reprieve as energy prices are expected to rise.
• The FTSE 100 hit another low after last week’s sell-off.
• 10350 is a key level to keep the index afloat, as its breach could trigger a further continuation lower.
• Bulls will need to clear 10600 to put the index back on track as the RSI moves away from the oversold area, potentially causing a bullish divergence in the process.
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Market Strategist at Orbex David Kindley is a renowned fundamental analyst with over 10 years of trading experience in the financial markets. With a keen eye for macroeconomics and a special focus on trading psychology, David is passionate about helping everyday investors make informed trading decisions through his thorough research and analysis.
Gold prices fell in Philippines on Wednesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 7,992.59 Philippine Pesos (PHP) per gram, down compared with the PHP 8,031.16 it cost on Tuesday.
The price for Gold decreased to PHP 93,225.09 per tola from PHP 93,673.90 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in PHP
1 Gram
7,992.59
10 Grams
79,927.12
Tola
93,225.09
Troy Ounce
248,597.60
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Philippines by adapting international prices (USD/PHP) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices fell in India on Wednesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 12,508.14 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, down compared with the INR 12,563.42 it cost on Tuesday.
The price for Gold decreased to INR 145,893.20 per tola from INR 146,537.20 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in INR
1 Gram
12,508.14
10 Grams
125,082.10
Tola
145,893.20
Troy Ounce
389,046.80
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices fell in United Arab Emirates on Wednesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 476.29 United Arab Emirates Dirhams (AED) per gram, down compared with the AED 478.46 it cost on Tuesday.
The price for Gold decreased to AED 5,555.15 per tola from AED 5,580.62 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in AED
1 Gram
476.29
10 Grams
4,762.73
Tola
5,555.15
Troy Ounce
14,814.20
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in United Arab Emirates by adapting international prices (USD/AED) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
The US dollar retreated after softer-than-expected US inflation data sparked a risk-on move across financial markets, helping gold rebound from the key 4,000 support level. However, mixed futures positioning, rising short interest and a fragile technical backdrop suggest the precious metal's recovery may still face headwinds if the US dollar resumes its broader uptrend.
View related analysis:
Japanese Yen Short Covering Raises the Stakes for USD/JPY Yen Bears Capitulate, US Dollar Nearing Sentiment Extreme? | COT report Australian Dollar Outlook: AUD/USD Bounce Losing Steam Ahead of US CPI Nasdaq 100 Bulls Seek Swing Low, Though COT Positioning Lacks Conviction US Dollar Weakens, but Gold Faces More Tests Ahead Softer US inflation sparks risk-on rebound Markets were handed a dose of risk appetite following a softer-than-expected US inflation report. All key metrics came in below estimates, with headline CPI falling 0.4% m/m (vs 0.1% forecast) and core CPI flat at 0.0% m/m (vs 0.2% expected). Annual inflation also eased, with headline CPI slowing to 3.5% y/y and core inflation to 2.6%.
US dollar weakens as traders reassess Fed outlook Separately, President Trump scrapped his proposed 20% toll on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, although the waterway remains closed by Iran for now. Together, these developments sent the US dollar sharply lower, making it the weakest major currency. NZD/USD and AUD/USD outperformed as they tracked Wall Street indices higher.
New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh also pledged to "do his job" on monetary policy despite pressure from President Trump during testimony before the House on Tuesday. That leaves incoming US economic data and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East as the primary drivers for the US dollar and, by extension, global markets in the near term.
Source: LSEG
US Dollar Index (DXY) Outlook: Pullback Risk Grows Within Uptrend I outlined a potential sentiment extreme for the US dollar in my weekly COT report, noting that futures traders were effectively short USD by nearly $40 billion—a 10-year high. While this weekly data does not necessarily mean a pullback is imminent, it is something to keep in mind as the rally matures. There are also other data points besides inflation to monitor, and while the soft CPI figures were welcome, they may not have been entirely unexpected given the recent decline in crude oil prices.
The daily chart shows a bearish engulfing candle (an outside day) on the US Dollar Index. Yet support emerged around the monthly pivot point before prices closed back above the 20-day EMA. Note that the 50-day EMA sits just below, which I suspect could provide decent support should prices pull back. And while the US Dollar Index remains in an uptrend, a move towards 102 could still be on the cards before a larger pullback materialises.
Source: ICE, TradingView
Gold Futures (GC) Market Positioning | COT Report Net-long exposure has been rising in recent weeks in gold futures, although it no longer appears as bullish as it did two weeks ago. Large speculators increased net longs to a 23-week high of 194.5k contracts last week, primarily driven by an increase in long positions. Yet short positions are also picking up, reminding us that bears still lurk beneath the surface. That could keep a lid on gains without a fresh bullish catalyst specific to gold.
While gross shorts rose to a six-week high of 39.5k contracts, large speculators added 33k long contracts over the past six weeks, compared with an increase of 9.4k short contracts over the past five weeks. So it's not an all-out slam dunk for the bulls – who may want to tread with caution despite Tuesday’s post-CPI bounce.
Source: COMEX, CFTC (COT), LSEG
For traders wanting a deeper understanding of futures positioning, I’ve also published a guide on how to read and interpret weekly COT data in forex markets.
Gold Futures (GC) Technical Analysis I have twice called for a bounce from 4,000, and it looks as though gold is trying to rebound from this key level once again. A bullish piercing line pattern had formed by Tuesday's close after only a marginal intraday break below 4,000. Daily trading volume was above average and slightly higher than Monday's bearish session, suggesting bulls are still willing to defend support despite a weak US session.
Yet that last point is key. If I am correct in assuming that traders will continue buying dips in the US dollar index, with a move towards 102 before a more meaningful retracement unfolds, then upside potential for gold could remain capped. In that scenario, another break below 4,000 becomes increasingly likely.
The daily chart remains in a clear downtrend, even if prices are attempting to carve out a double bottom. Note that the monthly pivot point sits just below 4,200, making it a potential level for bears to fade into in anticipation of another break beneath 4,000. If bears regain control, the October low near 3,900 comes into focus. A break below there would expose the monthly S1 pivot around 3,800, followed by the September VPOC at 3,680.
I do not have strong conviction in those lower support levels just yet, but gold's lacklustre attempt to rally from 4,000 leaves me on guard for another test of 3,900.
Spot gold daily chart shows larger trend structure. Source: TradingView If the October low fails as support, the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at $3,650 becomes the next downside target. A decline below the October low would also trigger another bearish trend continuation signal by violating the prior uptrend’s higher swing low. In that case, the prior resistance range beginning at $3,500 would become a potential downside target zone.
Bullish Scenario Requires Multiple Breakouts Despite the potential downside, a decisive advance above Tuesday’s high, before a decline below Tuesday’s low of $3,983, may result in a higher swing low. If that is followed by further signs of strength, including a rally above the interim lower swing high of $4,138 and the former uptrend line, bullish sentiment may continue to improve. An advance above $4,138 also increases the likelihood of a bullish trend continuation signal if gold subsequently breaks above the recent lower swing high at $4,203. Until then, the bearish technical structure remains intact, with the 20-day moving average continuing to define an initial key resistance zone that bulls must overcome.
If you’d like to know more about how to trade gold and silver, please visit our educational area.
Gold has jumped off the $4,000 level on the daily chart, though a death cross has now formed above. Source: TradingView. The gold market jumped on Tuesday after the consumer price index numbers in the United States came in weaker than anticipated. The core CPI numbers came in at 0.0%, which was 0.2% less than anticipated, and with that, it makes a certain amount of sense that it caught the market off guard. By catching the market off guard, you have a scenario where the reaction is pretty quick, and it is also fortuitous that the market was at a large, round, psychologically significant figure in the form of $4,000, thereby adding to the drama. Market participants do tend to pay close attention to these big figures, and $4,000 has been massive support as of late.
Technical Signals and Geopolitical Headwinds Looking at the chart, it is worth noting that we’ve recently seen the 50-day EMA break down below the 200-day EMA, which is what technical analysis calls a death cross. That death cross captures a lot of attention, and it is very negative in its meaning. Whether or not that actually ends up being an ominous sign remains to be seen, but we also have to worry about interest rates spiking again based on headlines coming out of the Middle East. That has been a major driver recently.
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Gold prices rose in Philippines on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 7,969.35 Philippine Pesos (PHP) per gram, up compared with the PHP 7,934.04 it cost on Monday.
The price for Gold increased to PHP 92,956.75 per tola from PHP 92,541.06 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in PHP
1 Gram
7,969.35
10 Grams
79,699.64
Tola
92,956.75
Troy Ounce
247,865.10
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Philippines by adapting international prices (USD/PHP) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices rose in Malaysia on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 526.60 Malaysian Ringgits (MYR) per gram, up compared with the MYR 524.66 it cost on Monday.
The price for Gold increased to MYR 6,142.11 per tola from MYR 6,119.53 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in MYR
1 Gram
526.60
10 Grams
5,265.78
Tola
6,142.11
Troy Ounce
16,379.12
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Malaysia by adapting international prices (USD/MYR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold price (XAU/USD) remains under selling pressure near $3,995 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. The precious metal extends its downside as renewed US-Iran tensions keep inflationary pressures high. Traders await the release of the US June Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation report and Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh testifies later on Tuesday.
Bloomberg reported on Monday that US President Donald Trump reinstated the US blockade of Iranian ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz and demanded a 20% reimbursement on all other cargo shipped through the waterway. Trump added that the US would keep up attacks on Iran, saying that “we’re going to hit them very hard tonight, and we’re going to hit them hard tomorrow.”
A reinstatement of the blockade on Iranian ports may prompt Tehran to step up attacks on ships seeking to transit the Strait of Hormuz. This, in turn, could trigger energy-driven inflation concerns and force the Fed to maintain its higher-for-longer rate stance. It’s worth noting that Gold is often used amid geopolitical uncertainty but does not yield interest, making it less attractive when interest rates are high.
The US CPI inflation data will be in the spotlight later in the day. Analysts expect the headline CPI to decline by 0.1% MoM in June, while the core CPI is projected to show a rise of 0.3% during the same period. In case of a softer-than-expected outcome, this could weigh on the US Dollar (USD) and support the USD-denominated commodity price in the near term.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Gold prices have rebounded from June's sharp correction, but RBC Capital Markets believes investors should be prepared for further volatility before the precious metal resumes its longer-term advance.
Gold (XAU/USD) traded around $4,165 after recovering more than 3% in July, following an almost 12% decline in June that briefly pushed prices below $4,000.
Image: Gold price in US dollars - 1 day chart Gold Outlook: Short-Term Risks Remain RBC says investors should not assume the recent rebound marks the start of a sustained rally.
"While we remain of the view that gold's upside story is not over, there remains the risk of near-term weakness."
The bank believes higher US interest rates and a stronger Dollar could continue weighing on bullion in the short run.
However, RBC argues much of the current macro outlook has already been priced into gold.
"We think risk is skewed to the upside in the medium term, especially towards year end."
The bank expects several potential catalysts—including renewed geopolitical uncertainty, softer US Dollar sentiment and changing expectations for bond yields—to help gold regain momentum.
"We think it's a mistake to hinge our view on the current consensus views being baked into gold prices."
RBC also believes structural demand remains intact, with central banks continuing to accumulate gold while investors are unlikely to remain underweight indefinitely.
"We think central banks remain supportive and that investors will not sit on the sidelines indefinitely."
Image: XAU/USD 6 month chart Near-Term Gold Price Forecast: RBC Says Volatility Should Give Way to Higher Prices Although RBC expects further short-term weakness cannot be ruled out, the bank continues to believe the broader bull market remains intact.
It argues that once current concerns over higher interest rates and Dollar strength begin to fade, long-term drivers such as government debt, reserve diversification and geopolitical uncertainty should once again support higher gold prices into year-end.
Death Cross and Macro Factors Intensify Downside Pressures The $4000 level, I think, extends down to the $3900 level, and if that is going to be the case, then I suspect we could see this market drop down to $3500 before it’s all said and done. If we do get a little bit of a rally from here, then I think it should be viewed through the prism of selling signs of exhaustion. I just don’t have any interest in buying gold at the moment.
I think rates and the US dollar are both working against the value of gold long-term. Long term I like it, but we would have to get the situation in the Middle East sorted out, and I just don’t think we’re anywhere near that at the moment, so I think gold continues to slump in this environment. This is a market that is a situation that remains very fluid, and I think bearish in general. I would make it a point to be a trader who uses a small position size, as the headlines continue to see a lot of volatility in risk appetite.
Gold edged lower after opening with $20 gap lower on Monday, following the latest escalation in the Middle East that fueled inflationary risk and added to expectations that the Fed will keep higher interest rates or possibly opt for rate hikes, providing support to US dollar.
Markets also focus on this week’s key economic data – release of US June inflation report and Fed Chair Warsh’s semiannual testimony on economy, inflation and monetary policy that will add fresh details on overall outlook.
Technical studies on daily chart remain in mainly bearish configuration, following several death-crosses formed during June (20; 30; 55 / 200DMAs), 14-d momentum holding in negative zone and RSI below 50).
Fresh weakness after recent recovery stall, shifts near-term focus to the downside, with initial requirement on weekly close below Fibo support at $4076 (where bears were rejected four times) guarding key supports at $4000/$3950 (psychological / recent spikes below $4K), with firm break here (after a multiple failure) to generate bearish continuation signal of larger downtrend from new historical high.
At the upside, falling 20DMA marks first significant resistance ($4118), ahead of pivotal barrier at $4203 (July 6 recovery peak).
The information contained in this document was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed herein are in good faith, but are subject to change without notice. No liability accepted whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this document.
Fragile rebounds across precious metals and major FX pairs face renewed risks from the latest developments around the Strait of Hormuz and this week's US CPI report. Key technical levels remain in focus to determine the next directional breakout.
Iran and the US exchanged strikes following the disruption of the ceasefire framework. The US launched strikes against Iran's key Hormuz gateway and military infrastructure. Iran launched strikes against commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, including oil and LNG vessels. Fed Governor Kevin Warsh is expected to testify on Wednesday following Tuesday's US CPI report. US CPI is expected to decline from 4.2% to 3.8%, in line with the more than 40% decline in crude oil prices from their yearly highs. Crude oil prices continue to hold a fragile bullish rebound following the latest strikes, within a broader selloff driven by oversupply risks, rising OPEC+ production quotas, and recovering Gulf production and exports. Latest analysis: Crude Oil Weekly Outlook: Oversupply Risks Challenge WTI & Brent Despite Hormuz Tensions EUR/USD and gold are also holding fragile rebounds despite persistent US dollar strength, supported by lingering inflationary pressures stemming from the US-Iran conflict, reinforcing expectations for a higher-for-longer interest rate environment. As the US Dollar Index (DXY) holds above 101: EUR/USD continues to face bearish pressure below 1.1470. Gold continues to face bearish pressure below 4,200. EUR/USD Price Outlook: Monthly Time Frame – Log Scale
Source: TradingView
Key points from this chart:
EUR/USD's monthly price action continues to test the multi-year resistance-turned-support zone between 1.1280 and 1.1300. This area aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the January 2025-January 2026 advance. A breakdown below 1.1280 would expose the 1.1130-1.1000 region, where the 50% Fibonacci retracement converges with the upper boundary of the 2008-2025 descending channel, creating another potential major rebound zone. On the upside, a sustained move back above 1.1470, followed by 1.1600, would reinforce bullish continuation toward the key 1.1730-1.1800 resistance area. This zone could either trigger another major pullback or open the door for a rally toward levels last seen in 2021 and 2018 near 1.2300. These scenarios largely depend on whether the US dollar pulls back or breaks above its major resistance zone, as discussed in this video. USD/JPY Bulls Prepare for Major Move Higher?
Gold Price Outlook: Six-Month Time Frame – Log Scale
Source: TradingView
Key points from the six-month chart:
Gold is testing a breakdown below the 27.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 1920-2026 advance. A close below 3,930 would expose the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement near the 3,500-3,460 zone, which served as a five-month resistance area throughout 2025. Price action is also aligned with the trendline connecting consecutive highs between 2016 and 2025, a major resistance-turned-support level. This high-time-frame confluence zone could determine whether gold stages a major reversal or experiences a deeper decline. Gold Price Outlook: Daily Time Frame – Log Scale
Source: TradingView
Key points from this chart:
Despite the high-time-frame support confluence, gold's daily price action remains capped below a descending trendline connecting lower highs since March 2026, maintaining an overall bearish bias. Price action is currently holding a fragile rebound, testing the 27.2% Fibonacci retracement of the April-July decline. A move above 4,200 would shift focus toward: 4,300: 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. 4,420: 50% Fibonacci retracement, which would mark a sustained bullish shift from the current bearish bias. As long as DXY strength persists, as discussed in this video, downside risks remain elevated across both EUR/USD and gold unless a change in monetary policy direction is confirmed and/or key resistance levels are reclaimed.
Gold prices fell in Saudi Arabia on Monday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 489.84 Saudi Riyals (SAR) per gram, down compared with the SAR 497.35 it cost on Friday.
The price for Gold decreased to SAR 5,713.50 per tola from SAR 5,801.03 per tola on friday.
Unit measure
Gold Price in SAR
1 Gram
489.84
10 Grams
4,898.52
Tola
5,713.50
Troy Ounce
15,235.74
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Saudi Arabia by adapting international prices (USD/SAR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices fell in Malaysia on Monday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 532.01 Malaysian Ringgits (MYR) per gram, down compared with the MYR 540.62 it cost on Friday.
The price for Gold decreased to MYR 6,204.98 per tola from MYR 6,305.65 per tola on friday.
Unit measure
Gold Price in MYR
1 Gram
532.01
10 Grams
5,319.86
Tola
6,204.98
Troy Ounce
16,547.35
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Malaysia by adapting international prices (USD/MYR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold price (XAU/USD) attracts some sellers to near $4,070 during the early Asian trading hours on Monday. The precious metal extends its decline amid escalating tensions between the US and Iran. Traders will take more cues from the release of the US June Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data, which is due on Tuesday.
The US military said that it launched additional strikes against Iran on Sunday aimed at further weakening the Islamic Republic’s ability to strike civilian vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, Bloomberg reported. The US Central Command (CENTCOM) said in a social media post that the strikes were designed to limit Iran’s ability to attack civilian ships in the Strait of Hormuz.
Ongoing missile strikes between Washington and Tehran have boosted energy costs, triggering fresh inflation concerns and forcing the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to maintain its higher-for-longer rate stance. It’s worth noting that Gold is often used amid geopolitical uncertainty but does not yield interest, making it less attractive when interest rates are high.
The US CPI inflation data will take center stage on Tuesday. Analysts expect the headline CPI to decline by 0.1% MoM in June, while the core CPI is projected to show a rise of 0.3% during the same period. If the report shows a softer-than-expected outcome, this could weigh on the US dollar (USD) and support the USD-denominated commodity price in the near term.
Inflation FAQs Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls.
Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money.
Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.
