Gold edges higher by some 0.92% on Friday as the US-Iran conflict boosted energy prices, which ultimately drive inflation higher, increasing expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) might need to raise interest rates. At the time of writing, the XAU/USD trades at $4,013, after reaching a daily low of $3,959.
XAU/USD rises as Middle East escalation revives inflation fearsAttacks between the US and Iran soured market sentiment despite the ongoing recovery in US equity markets. Newswires revealing a further escalation of the war are pushing the non-yielding metal higher.
Axios reported that the Trump administration is sending dozens of additional refueling planes to Israel in preparation for a potential expansion of military operations.
Data-wise, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment for July improved. From 50.7 to 54, due to lower gasoline prices at the pump, the report revealed. Inflation expectations for one year dipped from 4.6% in June to 4.2%, and for five years were steady at 3.3%.
Aside from this, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack was hawkish and expressed concern about persistent high inflation, which is at the top of her list, adding that “inflation is too high.” Hammack added that the labor market is solid and that “growth numbers are good and consumer spending is stable.”
On Thursday, the Fed’s Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said he is open to raising rates if there is no progress toward disinflation.
Money markets estimated a nearly 61% probability of a Fed rate increase at the October 28 meeting, based on Prime Terminal data. For the July meeting, the central bank is anticipated to keep rates steady, with a 76% probability.
Source: Prime TerminalNext week, the US economic docket will feature jobs data and S&P Global Flash PMIs as Fed officials entered their blackout period ahead of the July 29 policy meeting.
XAU/USD technical outlook: Gold recovers but remains bearishGold price is bearishly biased as the downtrend extends despite XAU reclaiming the $4,000 mark after bouncing off $3,959. Nevertheless, momentum remains negative as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is bearish below its 50-neutral level. This signals that further XAU/USD downside is seen, unless buyers clear key technical resistance levels.
For a bearish continuation, the first support is the psychological $4,000. Below this level lies the low of the day at $3,959, ahead of $3,900. A breach of the latter will expose the October 28, 2025 swing low at $3,886.
Conversely, for a bullish reversal, Bullion needs to break above a descending resistance trendline between $4,125 and $4,175. Above this area, and a potential test of the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,291 is on the cards. Beyond that, the 200-day SMA at $4,495 stands as the next obstacle, and once surpassed it could open the way to $4,500.
Gold daily chart Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
High Treasury Yields and Breakdown Risk Drive Bullion Sentiment Ultimately, this is a market that continues to see a lot of choppiness, a lot of noisiness. I think ultimately we are hanging on to a very important support level, and giving that up could bring in more momentum. After all, the market has taken a decidedly ugly turn over the last couple of months as non-yielding assets such as gold continue to take it on the chin.
Traders have preferred to go to the higher-yielding Treasury markets, and despite the fact that yields have slipped a little bit, they are still historically high. Because of this, the market continues to see a lot of concerns about jumping into a big uptrend without some kind of change in attitude, and external factors will need to be aligned.
Thu Lan Nguyen at Commerzbank notes that weaker United States (US inflation data briefly supported Gold, but the price has slipped back below USD 4,000 per troy ounce. With markets still pricing at least one Federal Reserve rate hike and energy-price risks from the Middle East conflict, she sees limited near-term upside, though a more dovish Fed stance could later re-ignite the Gold rally.
Limited upside unless Fed shifts"Weaker US inflation data — both consumer and producer prices surprised with slower growth in June — have dampened expectations for US interest rate hikes. While the market had previously priced in nearly two rate hikes by year-end, only a single 25-basis-point rate hike is now fully priced in. However, this provided only a brief boost to the gold price. Yesterday, it slipped back below the USD 4,000 per troy ounce mark, where it is currently trading."
"In the short term, further upside potential is likely to remain limited. With the ongoing escalation of the Middle East conflict and the resulting risk of another sharp spike in energy prices, expectations of interest rate hikes are likely to persist for some time."
"A correction, regardless of developments in the US-Iran conflict, is likely to occur only if the market's assessment of the Federal Reserve were to fundamentally change."
"But the picture could also shift again: Warsh, for example, is already suggesting that AI would boost productivity and therefore likely have an inflation-dampening effect. New York Fed President John Williams also recently made similar comments, referring to a long-term downward trend in inflation."
"If this view gains traction within the FOMC, it could mean that interest rate hikes are not considered necessary to combat current inflation."
"The price of gold would then likely benefit not only in the short term from the market pricing out interest rate hikes, but also from the fact that the market perceives increased inflation risks in the long term due to a significantly more dovish stance by the Federal Reserve."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Gold managed to hold trades below 4100 while maintain the drop pressure over market
As we see over the chart market facing support around 3940-45 while resistances at 4017 and 4050-60 which may hold this trading zone
Below 3940 more drops may hit the market while Med-Run support still at 3886 which still protecting the advance wave
Above 4060 more advance toward 4100 and 4200 will be expected
SUPPORT RESISTANCE LEVEL1 3940-45 4017 LEVEL2 3886 4050-60 LEVEL3 3700 4102 Head of Technical Analysis at Orbex, Rami Abu Draa
holds a bachelor's degree in Banking, Finance and Economics. A professional trader and mentor with over 10 years of industry experience, Rami is passionate about sharing his knowledge with Orbex clients from basic to advanced concepts of Technical Analysis, Investment psychology and Investment/Trading methodologies. He is able to combine fundamental and technical principles to deliver a unique perspective on the markets that enables Orbex traders to identify high-probability trading opportunities.
Death Cross Confirmed as Geopolitical Tensions Weigh on Bullion The US dollar could be a bit of a problem here as well; the US dollar strengthening a lot of times will work against gold. But from the structural standpoint, we are still in consolidation. The $3,900 level below is an area that had been supported as well, so it’s possible there is support between $4,000 and $3,900.
Breaking below there, then the historical support can be found at $3,500. Short-term rallies are most certainly possible, but at this point in time, the market looks like it probably needs to convince a lot of traders; it needs to prove itself, and caution will more likely be a route that a lot of traders take as we head into a weekend that almost certainly will feature Middle East headlines again.
Gold trades below $4000 level on Friday following Thursday’s break and daily close below this level (the first close well below the mark since 6 November 2025), after the price moved around 4K for almost one month, but all attacks failed to register a clear break lower.
Fresh violation of very significant 4K support may signal an end of extended directionless phase and continuation of larger downtrend from new record high, if break is sustained.
The metal came under fresh pressure as the latest escalation in the Middle East fuels inflationary risk (also partially offsets optimism from better than expected US June inflation numbers) that underpins the US dollar.
Loss of $4K support zone (including recent spike low at $3942) would expose immediate support at $3886 (28 Oct 2025), followed by $3666 (weekly Ichimoku cloud base) and $3606 (50% retracement of $1613/$5598 uptrend).
Gold is on track for the second consecutive weekly loss, with bearish daily studies contributing to negative scenario.
Conversely, failure to hold gains below $4000 would weaken developing bearish signal and keep the price in prolonged directionless mode, but biased lower as long as recent range top ($4203) stays intact.
The information contained in this document was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed herein are in good faith, but are subject to change without notice. No liability accepted whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this document.
Gold prices rose in United Arab Emirates on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 471.38 United Arab Emirates Dirhams (AED) per gram, up compared with the AED 469.48 it cost on Thursday.
The price for Gold increased to AED 5,498.09 per tola from AED 5,475.88 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in AED
1 Gram
471.38
10 Grams
4,713.81
Tola
5,498.09
Troy Ounce
14,661.61
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in United Arab Emirates by adapting international prices (USD/AED) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices rose in Philippines on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 7,898.31 Philippine Pesos (PHP) per gram, up compared with the PHP 7,867.96 it cost on Thursday.
The price for Gold increased to PHP 92,124.66 per tola from PHP 91,770.38 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in PHP
1 Gram
7,898.31
10 Grams
78,983.37
Tola
92,124.66
Troy Ounce
245,665.00
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Philippines by adapting international prices (USD/PHP) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices rose in Saudi Arabia on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 481.76 Saudi Riyals (SAR) per gram, up compared with the SAR 480.07 it cost on Thursday.
The price for Gold increased to SAR 5,619.25 per tola from SAR 5,599.49 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in SAR
1 Gram
481.76
10 Grams
4,817.68
Tola
5,619.25
Troy Ounce
14,984.61
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Saudi Arabia by adapting international prices (USD/SAR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices rose in Pakistan on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 35,718.35 Pakistani Rupees (PKR) per gram, up compared with the PKR 35,563.21 it cost on Thursday.
The price for Gold increased to PKR 416,604.50 per tola from PKR 414,802.30 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in PKR
1 Gram
35,718.35
10 Grams
357,177.20
Tola
416,604.50
Troy Ounce
1,110,971.00
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Pakistan by adapting international prices (USD/PKR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices rose in Malaysia on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 523.84 Malaysian Ringgits (MYR) per gram, up compared with the MYR 521.57 it cost on Thursday.
The price for Gold increased to MYR 6,110.20 per tola from MYR 6,083.48 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in MYR
1 Gram
523.84
10 Grams
5,238.60
Tola
6,110.20
Troy Ounce
16,292.93
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Malaysia by adapting international prices (USD/MYR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold has reached a bearish technical milestone after broad-based selling pushed XAU/USD to its weakest daily close since October. While the broader trend favours further downside, nearby support levels and relatively subdued options positioning suggest bears may need to stay nimble.
View related analysis:
British Pound Surges on Treasury Pick Bets, GBP/AUD Eyes Breakout Nasdaq 100 Coils Ahead of ASML Earnings as AI Leadership Faces a Test US Dollar Slips, but Gold Bulls Are Not Out of the Woods Japanese Yen Short Covering Raises the Stakes for USD/JPY XAU/USD Posts First Daily Close Below 4,000 Since October Gold Breaks Below 4,000 as Dollar Steadies Gold futures saw a daily close below 4,000 for the first time since October on Thursday. And it didn’t take much of a rise in the US dollar for gold bears to enjoy their breakout. The US dollar index rose just 0.17%, recouping less than a third of the losses accumulated over the previous two days. I had already noted that gold appeared vulnerable to a break lower, given bulls had failed to make any impact despite the US dollar falling a full 1% on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Source: LSEG
Gold's Broad-Based Decline Raises Bearish Risks Gold’s losses weren’t limited to the US dollar either, as it fell against all major currencies by at least 1.6%. Using gold as the benchmark, the Canadian dollar was the strongest major currency against it, with XAU/CAD down 2% on Thursday. Gold was also just shy of 2% lower against the Australian dollar, Japanese yen and euro. Looking at this week’s performance, gold has lost the most ground against the New Zealand dollar. When gold’s performance is consistently weak across the board, it becomes hard to ignore, and that could put traders on guard for a bearish breakout.
Gold Futures (GC) Technical Analysis It is hard to argue with gold's bearish trend overall, given its series of lower lows and lower highs. Yet despite the daily close below 4,000, bulls still appear to be putting up a fight. Thursday's bearish engulfing day only closed marginally below the key psychological level, while the June low at 3955.4 is also close by.
We may see a spike lower during the Asian or European session, although the nearby June low could increase the risk of a bearish shakeout and two-way volatility. The October low, just above 3900, also sits close to the weekly VPOC, providing technical support that could stifle any runaway bearish breakout for now.
While downside risks remain, bears may also want to stay nimble given the cluster of nearby support levels. Lower timeframes may therefore be better suited to managing the increased risk of volatility.
Source: ICE, TradingView
Gold Options Markets Remain Calm Despite the Breakdown A slight word of caution for bears also comes from the options market. Implied volatility is neither rising nor particularly high by this year's standards. Risk reversals also remain elevated, although they edged lower on Thursday to reflect increased demand for puts relative to calls. Yet despite gold trading below its June 11 low, risk reversals remain well above their corresponding lows. That suggests options traders are less concerned about further downside than spot prices currently imply. That view may change if gold eventually breaks below 3,900.
Spot gold weekly chart shows long-term trend. Source: TradingView Next Support Zones Come into Focus Now that gold has been rejected once again from resistance at the 20-day moving average, the developing bearish trend may be ready to proceed with its next leg lower. That would suggest that the prior trend low of $3,942 may be broken on the way to a test of support near the higher swing low of $3,886 from October 2025. There is also a reasonable chance that support may fail to hold near that low, which would provide another bearish reversal signal following the prior upswing.
A decisive decline below $3,886 would likely lead to the next lower target zone from approximately $3,704 to around $3,650, derived from the 50% retracement of a prior upswing and the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of a smaller upswing that is contained within the larger trend structure. There may also be a test of the lower boundary of a falling trend channel near that price zone, depending on when it is reached. Signs of support may emerge near that lower boundary.
Longer-Term Trend Weakness Remains Intact Gold has been progressively weakening overall since the January peak of $5,597. The deterioration in the technical picture began to have longer-term implications in early June when a confirmed breakdown below an uptrend line and the 200-day moving average occurred. Resistance during bounces shifted from the 50-day moving average to the 20-day moving average, reflecting increasing bearish momentum. Three weeks ago, a longer-term uptrend line defining dynamic support was broken to the downside and the area near the line has been confirmed as resistance. Taken together, short-term weakness is now aligned with longer-term weakness, suggesting further downside and reinforcing the bearish outlook.
If you’d like to know more about how to trade gold and silver, please visit our educational area.
Gold (XAU/USD) edges lower on Thursday as traders look past back-to-back softer-than-expected US inflation reports and remain focused on renewed Middle East tensions, which are fueling concerns that higher energy prices could reignite inflationary pressure.
At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades around $4,028, down 0.80% on the day.
Both the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) reports for June came in below market expectations. The softer readings reduced the chances of an imminent Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike, but Gold struggled to gain traction as traders continued to debate whether the Fed could still tighten policy later this year.
Fed officials continue to stress the need to bring inflation sustainably back to the 2% target while noting that the labor market appears to have stabilized. This suggests that the central bank could raise interest rates later this year if inflation proves more persistent.
Elevated borrowing costs reduce Gold's appeal as investors seek higher returns from interest-bearing assets.
Against this backdrop, Gold retains a downside bias, though it has traded broadly between $4,000 and $4,200 in recent weeks after falling to $3,941 in June, its lowest level since November 2025.
Next on the US economic docket are Retail Sales and Initial Jobless Claims data, due at 12:30 GMT. Speeches from Fed officials Lorie Logan and Jeffrey Schmid later in the day will also be watched.
On the geopolitical front, the US carried out a fifth consecutive night of strikes against Iranian targets, while Tehran responded by targeting US assets in Kuwait, Bahrain and Jordan.
Iran also said it would not allow Washington to interfere in the Strait of Hormuz, calling it a "red line." Meanwhile, The Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday that US President Donald Trump was leaning towards expanding military operations.
Technical analysis: Sellers retain control as XAU/USD struggles below $4,200
On the daily chart, XAU/USD keeps a bearish bias as it remains well below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,495 and the 100-day SMA at $4,548.
Price is holding within a downward parallel channel, trading beneath its upper boundary around $4,200, while momentum is mixed. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 40 leans slightly bearish, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains positive, yet with declining histogram bars, hinting that any rebound would still face structural headwinds overhead.
On the topside, immediate resistance is clustered around $4,200, where the horizontal cap and the channel’s upper line converge, before the more significant barriers at the 200-day SMA near $4,496 and the 100-day SMA close to $4,548.
On the downside, initial support appears at the $4,000 horizontal level, with a deeper cushion at the channel floor around $3,800.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Inflation FAQs Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls.
Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money.
Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.
ING strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey report Gold has risen for a second session as softer US producer price data weighs on the Dollar and Treasury yields, reducing expectations of near-term Federal Reserve tightening. Markets now assign a much lower probability to a July rate hike, which supports Gold. However, they caution that ongoing Middle East tensions and elevated energy prices could limit upside.
Lower Fed odds aid bullion"Gold rose for a second straight session as softer-than-expected US producer price data weighed on the dollar and Treasury yields."
"Lower energy costs helped ease inflation pressures, reducing expectations of near-term Federal Reserve tightening."
"Markets now price only a 12% chance of a July rate hike, down from almost 31% a week ago. Lower rate expectations are supportive for gold."
"But we believe upside could remain limited in the near term if Middle East tensions continue to support energy prices and keep inflation risks elevated."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Gold prices fell in Philippines on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 7,991.38 Philippine Pesos (PHP) per gram, down compared with the PHP 8,043.44 it cost on Wednesday.
The price for Gold decreased to PHP 93,209.88 per tola from PHP 93,817.09 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in PHP
1 Gram
7,991.38
10 Grams
79,913.78
Tola
93,209.88
Troy Ounce
248,559.80
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Philippines by adapting international prices (USD/PHP) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices fell in Malaysia on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 528.07 Malaysian Ringgits (MYR) per gram, down compared with the MYR 531.64 it cost on Wednesday.
The price for Gold decreased to MYR 6,159.30 per tola from MYR 6,200.93 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in MYR
1 Gram
528.07
10 Grams
5,280.70
Tola
6,159.30
Troy Ounce
16,424.82
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Malaysia by adapting international prices (USD/MYR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices fell in Pakistan on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 35,858.41 Pakistani Rupees (PKR) per gram, down compared with the PKR 36,098.45 it cost on Wednesday.
The price for Gold decreased to PKR 418,244.40 per tola from PKR 421,045.30 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in PKR
1 Gram
35,858.41
10 Grams
358,583.20
Tola
418,244.40
Troy Ounce
1,115,322.00
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Pakistan by adapting international prices (USD/PKR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices fell in United Arab Emirates on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 476.41 United Arab Emirates Dirhams (AED) per gram, down compared with the AED 479.42 it cost on Wednesday.
The price for Gold decreased to AED 5,556.81 per tola from AED 5,591.87 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in AED
1 Gram
476.41
10 Grams
4,764.24
Tola
5,556.81
Troy Ounce
14,818.06
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in United Arab Emirates by adapting international prices (USD/AED) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
In the latest close session, Gold.com (GOLD - Free Report) was up +1.25% at $39.56. This change outpaced the S&P 500's 0.38% gain on the day. Elsewhere, the Dow saw an upswing of 0.29%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq appreciated by 0.62%.
Coming into today, shares of the precious metals trading company had lost 10.66% in the past month. In that same time, the Finance sector gained 3.3%, while the S&P 500 gained 1.61%.
Market participants will be closely following the financial results of Gold.com in its upcoming release. The company's upcoming EPS is projected at $0.96, signifying a 26.32% increase compared to the same quarter of the previous year. Meanwhile, our latest consensus estimate is calling for revenue of $7.76 billion, up 209.04% from the prior-year quarter.
Regarding the entire year, the Zacks Consensus Estimates forecast earnings of $5.31 per share and revenue of $28.27 billion, indicating changes of +144.7% and +157.52%, respectively, compared to the previous year.
It's also important for investors to be aware of any recent modifications to analyst estimates for Goldcom. These revisions help to show the ever-changing nature of near-term business trends. Consequently, upward revisions in estimates express analysts' positivity towards the business operations and its ability to generate profits.
Research indicates that these estimate revisions are directly correlated with near-term share price momentum. To utilize this, we have created the Zacks Rank, a proprietary model that integrates these estimate changes and provides a functional rating system.
The Zacks Rank system ranges from #1 (Strong Buy) to #5 (Strong Sell). It has a remarkable, outside-audited track record of success, with #1 stocks delivering an average annual return of +25% since 1988. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate has witnessed an unchanged state. Gold.com is holding a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold) right now.
Digging into valuation, Gold.com currently has a Forward P/E ratio of 10.76. This valuation marks a discount compared to its industry average Forward P/E of 11.03.
The Financial - Miscellaneous Services industry is part of the Finance sector. With its current Zacks Industry Rank of 162, this industry ranks in the bottom 35% of all industries, numbering over 250.
The Zacks Industry Rank assesses the strength of our separate industry groups by calculating the average Zacks Rank of the individual stocks contained within the groups. Our research shows that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1.
Don't forget to use Zacks.com to keep track of all these stock-moving metrics, and others, in the upcoming trading sessions.
, /PRNewswire/ - Falcon Gold Corp. (TSXV: FG) (FSE: 3FA) (OTC Pink: FGLDF) ("Falcon" or the "Company") is pleased to announce that it has commenced the drill tender process for its fully permitted Central Canada Gold Project located near Atikokan, Ontario.
"Central Canada continues to emerge as one of the most exciting exploration opportunities in Falcon's portfolio," said Karim Rayani, Chief Executive Officer of Falcon Gold Corp. "With a fully permitted drill program, encouraging results from our previous drilling campaigns and more than a century of historic exploration to build upon, we believe we are well positioned to advance this project toward its next significant discovery."
The Company recently received approval for a diamond drilling program consisting of up to 20 drill holes totaling approximately 2,500 metres. Falcon has invited a number of experienced Canadian diamond drilling contractors to submit tenders for the upcoming exploration program, with contractor selection expected to be completed in the coming weeks.
The planned drill program is designed to follow up on Falcon's previously identified high-grade gold mineralization while testing additional priority targets generated through the integration of historical exploration, diamond drilling, geological mapping, geophysics and structural interpretation.
Exploration and development at the Central Canada Gold Project dates back to the early 1900s, when the property was the site of shaft sinking, underground development and limited historic gold production. During the 1930s, Central Canada Mines Ltd. further advanced the property through underground development and exploration, establishing the project as one of the historic gold occurrences within the Atikokan Gold Camp.
To date, Falcon has successfully completed two phases of diamond drilling at the Central Canada Gold Project. These programs confirmed the presence of high-grade, structurally controlled gold mineralization, including highlights of 10.17 g/t Au over 3.0 metres, including 18.6 g/t Au over 1.0 metre with visible gold, and 2.8 g/t Au over 7.5 metres. These results have significantly enhanced the Company's geological understanding of the project and refined several priority drill targets.
The upcoming drill program will focus on expanding and testing the historic Central Canada Mine Trend (J.J. Walshe Mine Trend) together with several additional prospective gold-bearing structures identified across the property, including the Sugar Shear, Monte Zone, No. 2 Vein, Honey Zone and Hoist Zone. Collectively, these targets represent a broad, district-scale mineralized system that remains only partially evaluated by modern exploration despite more than a century of intermittent exploration.
In addition to advancing the Central Canada Gold Project, Falcon continues to strengthen its strategic position within the Atikokan-Hammond Reef Gold District through the recent acquisition of the West Hammond Contact Property, providing shareholders with exposure to a growing portfolio of highly prospective gold projects in one of Ontario's premier exploration districts.
Following completion of the tender process, the Company expects to award a drilling contract and announce the commencement of the program. Mobilization will be subject to financing, contractor availability and customary operational scheduling.
The Company will continue to provide updates as exploration activities progress.
Qualified Person
The scientific and technical information contained in this news release has been reviewed and approved by Mike Kilbourne, P.Geo., a Qualified Person as defined by National Instrument 43-101 – Standards of Disclosure for Mineral Projects. Mr. Kilbourne is an independent consulting geologist and is at arms length to the Company.
ON BEHALF OF THE BOARD OF DIRECTORS
Karim Rayani
Chief Executive Officer
Falcon Gold Corp.
[email protected]
+1 604 716 0551
About Falcon Gold Corp.
Falcon Gold Corp. is a Canadian mineral exploration company focused on the acquisition, exploration, and advancement of precious and battery metals opportunities across the Americas, with a portfolio spanning established mining camps and emerging exploration districts. Its flagship asset, the Central Canada Gold Project, is located approximately 20 kilometres southeast of Agnico Eagle's Hammond Reef Gold Deposit in northwestern Ontario. The project lies within the highly prospective Quetico Fault Zone, a major regional structural corridor interpreted as a key control on gold mineralization in the district. The Hammond Reef deposit is associated with a northeast-trending structural system linked to this broader regional framework, highlighting the significance of the geological setting. The Central Canada property has a documented exploration and development history spanning more than a century. Early work between 1901 and 1907 included shallow shaft development and small-scale production from high-grade material processed through stamp milling. Between 1930 and 1935, Central Canada Mines Ltd. further advanced the project with deeper underground development, crosscutting, and the installation of a small-scale gold mill. Subsequent exploration programs have included diamond drilling campaigns that returned multiple high-grade gold intercepts, supporting the presence of significant mineralization within the system. Beyond its flagship project, Falcon Gold maintains a diversified portfolio of Canadian exploration assets. This includes a 49% interest in the Burton Gold Property in partnership with IAMGOLD near Sudbury, Ontario, exploration-stage gold targets in British Columbia through the Spitfire and Sunny Boy claims, and the Great Burnt Copper-Gold Project in central Newfoundland.
Cautionary Language and Forward-Looking Statements
This news release may contain "forward-looking statements" and "forward-looking information" (collectively, "forward-looking statements") within the meaning of applicable securities laws, including but not limited to statements relating to the timing and content of future work programs, including planned drilling programs, geological interpretations, receipt of property titles, and other corporate and technical matters. Forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, expectations, estimates, and projections as of the date of this news release and are subject to known and unknown risks, uncertainties, and other factors that may cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied herein. In some cases, forward-looking statements can be identified by terminology such as "may," "should," "intend," "expect," "plan," "anticipate," "believe," "estimate," "project," "potential," or "continue," or the negative of these terms, or other comparable terminology. Forward-looking statements in this news release may include, but are not limited to, statements regarding planned drilling activities on the Central Canada Gold Project, which is currently permitted for up to 20 drill holes, and the interpretation and potential extension of mineralization along structural trends within the project area. There can be no assurance that the Company's exploration programs will proceed as currently contemplated or that they will achieve their intended objectives. Forward-looking statements are inherently subject to significant business, economic, competitive, and geological uncertainties and contingencies. Actual results may differ materially from those currently anticipated. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements, as there can be no assurance that plans, assumptions, or expectations will prove to be accurate.
Neither TSX Venture Exchange nor its Regulation Services Provider (as that term is defined in the policies of the TSX Venture Exchange) accepts responsibility for the adequacy or accuracy of this release.
Gold is defending the $4,000 area within a tight range following a death cross, with $4,200 capping the upside. Source: TradingView. The gold market has been noisy in early trading on Wednesday, initially dropping only to turn around and show some signs of resilience. The $4,000 level sits below, which, of course, is a large, round, psychologically significant figure, and an area that will attract a certain amount of headlines, as financial reporters love these levels.
Recently, we’ve had the 50-day EMA breakdown below the 200-day EMA, kicking off the death cross, which is a longer-term bearish signal for some analysts and can cause a little bit of nerves as well. It’s worth noting that we have pierced the $4,000 level a couple of times recently, and so far, it looks at least like there are buyers underneath that area that are willing to pick up gold, perhaps down to the $3,900 level based on historical price action. This area is one I would be watching very closely if we do, in fact, get there.
AUDUSD (The Australian dollar) remained choppy as consumer confidence jumped out of negative territory.
• As the pair searches for a recovery to the previous swing high at 0.6980, a bearish RSI divergence could signal a halt to the potential rally.
• 0.6960 is the first level to expect some resistance after the recent announcement.
• Further down, 0.6880 at the bottom of the latest bounce is the first layer of support if price action turns around.
• A full reversal can take shape back towards 0.6840 if bears remain in the market.
XAUUSD steadily sinking
Gold continues to be pressured as price action looks to break through the 4000 level.
• On the chart, the metal continues to grind lower after dropping over $100 in just a few short sessions.
• Bulls will need to lift 4120 and then 4190 to make the rebound count.
• Otherwise, renewed selling could send the price below 3930.
UK100 finding support
The index market across the board looks for a reprieve as energy prices are expected to rise.
• The FTSE 100 hit another low after last week’s sell-off.
• 10350 is a key level to keep the index afloat, as its breach could trigger a further continuation lower.
• Bulls will need to clear 10600 to put the index back on track as the RSI moves away from the oversold area, potentially causing a bullish divergence in the process.
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Market Strategist at Orbex David Kindley is a renowned fundamental analyst with over 10 years of trading experience in the financial markets. With a keen eye for macroeconomics and a special focus on trading psychology, David is passionate about helping everyday investors make informed trading decisions through his thorough research and analysis.
Gold prices fell in Philippines on Wednesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 7,992.59 Philippine Pesos (PHP) per gram, down compared with the PHP 8,031.16 it cost on Tuesday.
The price for Gold decreased to PHP 93,225.09 per tola from PHP 93,673.90 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in PHP
1 Gram
7,992.59
10 Grams
79,927.12
Tola
93,225.09
Troy Ounce
248,597.60
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Philippines by adapting international prices (USD/PHP) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices fell in India on Wednesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 12,508.14 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, down compared with the INR 12,563.42 it cost on Tuesday.
The price for Gold decreased to INR 145,893.20 per tola from INR 146,537.20 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in INR
1 Gram
12,508.14
10 Grams
125,082.10
Tola
145,893.20
Troy Ounce
389,046.80
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices fell in United Arab Emirates on Wednesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 476.29 United Arab Emirates Dirhams (AED) per gram, down compared with the AED 478.46 it cost on Tuesday.
The price for Gold decreased to AED 5,555.15 per tola from AED 5,580.62 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in AED
1 Gram
476.29
10 Grams
4,762.73
Tola
5,555.15
Troy Ounce
14,814.20
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in United Arab Emirates by adapting international prices (USD/AED) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
The US dollar retreated after softer-than-expected US inflation data sparked a risk-on move across financial markets, helping gold rebound from the key 4,000 support level. However, mixed futures positioning, rising short interest and a fragile technical backdrop suggest the precious metal's recovery may still face headwinds if the US dollar resumes its broader uptrend.
View related analysis:
Japanese Yen Short Covering Raises the Stakes for USD/JPY Yen Bears Capitulate, US Dollar Nearing Sentiment Extreme? | COT report Australian Dollar Outlook: AUD/USD Bounce Losing Steam Ahead of US CPI Nasdaq 100 Bulls Seek Swing Low, Though COT Positioning Lacks Conviction US Dollar Weakens, but Gold Faces More Tests Ahead Softer US inflation sparks risk-on rebound Markets were handed a dose of risk appetite following a softer-than-expected US inflation report. All key metrics came in below estimates, with headline CPI falling 0.4% m/m (vs 0.1% forecast) and core CPI flat at 0.0% m/m (vs 0.2% expected). Annual inflation also eased, with headline CPI slowing to 3.5% y/y and core inflation to 2.6%.
US dollar weakens as traders reassess Fed outlook Separately, President Trump scrapped his proposed 20% toll on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, although the waterway remains closed by Iran for now. Together, these developments sent the US dollar sharply lower, making it the weakest major currency. NZD/USD and AUD/USD outperformed as they tracked Wall Street indices higher.
New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh also pledged to "do his job" on monetary policy despite pressure from President Trump during testimony before the House on Tuesday. That leaves incoming US economic data and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East as the primary drivers for the US dollar and, by extension, global markets in the near term.
Source: LSEG
US Dollar Index (DXY) Outlook: Pullback Risk Grows Within Uptrend I outlined a potential sentiment extreme for the US dollar in my weekly COT report, noting that futures traders were effectively short USD by nearly $40 billion—a 10-year high. While this weekly data does not necessarily mean a pullback is imminent, it is something to keep in mind as the rally matures. There are also other data points besides inflation to monitor, and while the soft CPI figures were welcome, they may not have been entirely unexpected given the recent decline in crude oil prices.
The daily chart shows a bearish engulfing candle (an outside day) on the US Dollar Index. Yet support emerged around the monthly pivot point before prices closed back above the 20-day EMA. Note that the 50-day EMA sits just below, which I suspect could provide decent support should prices pull back. And while the US Dollar Index remains in an uptrend, a move towards 102 could still be on the cards before a larger pullback materialises.
Source: ICE, TradingView
Gold Futures (GC) Market Positioning | COT Report Net-long exposure has been rising in recent weeks in gold futures, although it no longer appears as bullish as it did two weeks ago. Large speculators increased net longs to a 23-week high of 194.5k contracts last week, primarily driven by an increase in long positions. Yet short positions are also picking up, reminding us that bears still lurk beneath the surface. That could keep a lid on gains without a fresh bullish catalyst specific to gold.
While gross shorts rose to a six-week high of 39.5k contracts, large speculators added 33k long contracts over the past six weeks, compared with an increase of 9.4k short contracts over the past five weeks. So it's not an all-out slam dunk for the bulls – who may want to tread with caution despite Tuesday’s post-CPI bounce.
Source: COMEX, CFTC (COT), LSEG
For traders wanting a deeper understanding of futures positioning, I’ve also published a guide on how to read and interpret weekly COT data in forex markets.
Gold Futures (GC) Technical Analysis I have twice called for a bounce from 4,000, and it looks as though gold is trying to rebound from this key level once again. A bullish piercing line pattern had formed by Tuesday's close after only a marginal intraday break below 4,000. Daily trading volume was above average and slightly higher than Monday's bearish session, suggesting bulls are still willing to defend support despite a weak US session.
Yet that last point is key. If I am correct in assuming that traders will continue buying dips in the US dollar index, with a move towards 102 before a more meaningful retracement unfolds, then upside potential for gold could remain capped. In that scenario, another break below 4,000 becomes increasingly likely.
The daily chart remains in a clear downtrend, even if prices are attempting to carve out a double bottom. Note that the monthly pivot point sits just below 4,200, making it a potential level for bears to fade into in anticipation of another break beneath 4,000. If bears regain control, the October low near 3,900 comes into focus. A break below there would expose the monthly S1 pivot around 3,800, followed by the September VPOC at 3,680.
I do not have strong conviction in those lower support levels just yet, but gold's lacklustre attempt to rally from 4,000 leaves me on guard for another test of 3,900.
Spot gold daily chart shows larger trend structure. Source: TradingView If the October low fails as support, the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at $3,650 becomes the next downside target. A decline below the October low would also trigger another bearish trend continuation signal by violating the prior uptrend’s higher swing low. In that case, the prior resistance range beginning at $3,500 would become a potential downside target zone.
Bullish Scenario Requires Multiple Breakouts Despite the potential downside, a decisive advance above Tuesday’s high, before a decline below Tuesday’s low of $3,983, may result in a higher swing low. If that is followed by further signs of strength, including a rally above the interim lower swing high of $4,138 and the former uptrend line, bullish sentiment may continue to improve. An advance above $4,138 also increases the likelihood of a bullish trend continuation signal if gold subsequently breaks above the recent lower swing high at $4,203. Until then, the bearish technical structure remains intact, with the 20-day moving average continuing to define an initial key resistance zone that bulls must overcome.
If you’d like to know more about how to trade gold and silver, please visit our educational area.
Gold has jumped off the $4,000 level on the daily chart, though a death cross has now formed above. Source: TradingView. The gold market jumped on Tuesday after the consumer price index numbers in the United States came in weaker than anticipated. The core CPI numbers came in at 0.0%, which was 0.2% less than anticipated, and with that, it makes a certain amount of sense that it caught the market off guard. By catching the market off guard, you have a scenario where the reaction is pretty quick, and it is also fortuitous that the market was at a large, round, psychologically significant figure in the form of $4,000, thereby adding to the drama. Market participants do tend to pay close attention to these big figures, and $4,000 has been massive support as of late.
Technical Signals and Geopolitical Headwinds Looking at the chart, it is worth noting that we’ve recently seen the 50-day EMA break down below the 200-day EMA, which is what technical analysis calls a death cross. That death cross captures a lot of attention, and it is very negative in its meaning. Whether or not that actually ends up being an ominous sign remains to be seen, but we also have to worry about interest rates spiking again based on headlines coming out of the Middle East. That has been a major driver recently.
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Gold prices rose in Philippines on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 7,969.35 Philippine Pesos (PHP) per gram, up compared with the PHP 7,934.04 it cost on Monday.
The price for Gold increased to PHP 92,956.75 per tola from PHP 92,541.06 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in PHP
1 Gram
7,969.35
10 Grams
79,699.64
Tola
92,956.75
Troy Ounce
247,865.10
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Philippines by adapting international prices (USD/PHP) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices rose in Malaysia on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 526.60 Malaysian Ringgits (MYR) per gram, up compared with the MYR 524.66 it cost on Monday.
The price for Gold increased to MYR 6,142.11 per tola from MYR 6,119.53 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in MYR
1 Gram
526.60
10 Grams
5,265.78
Tola
6,142.11
Troy Ounce
16,379.12
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Malaysia by adapting international prices (USD/MYR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold price (XAU/USD) remains under selling pressure near $3,995 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. The precious metal extends its downside as renewed US-Iran tensions keep inflationary pressures high. Traders await the release of the US June Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation report and Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh testifies later on Tuesday.
Bloomberg reported on Monday that US President Donald Trump reinstated the US blockade of Iranian ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz and demanded a 20% reimbursement on all other cargo shipped through the waterway. Trump added that the US would keep up attacks on Iran, saying that “we’re going to hit them very hard tonight, and we’re going to hit them hard tomorrow.”
A reinstatement of the blockade on Iranian ports may prompt Tehran to step up attacks on ships seeking to transit the Strait of Hormuz. This, in turn, could trigger energy-driven inflation concerns and force the Fed to maintain its higher-for-longer rate stance. It’s worth noting that Gold is often used amid geopolitical uncertainty but does not yield interest, making it less attractive when interest rates are high.
The US CPI inflation data will be in the spotlight later in the day. Analysts expect the headline CPI to decline by 0.1% MoM in June, while the core CPI is projected to show a rise of 0.3% during the same period. In case of a softer-than-expected outcome, this could weigh on the US Dollar (USD) and support the USD-denominated commodity price in the near term.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Gold prices have rebounded from June's sharp correction, but RBC Capital Markets believes investors should be prepared for further volatility before the precious metal resumes its longer-term advance.
Gold (XAU/USD) traded around $4,165 after recovering more than 3% in July, following an almost 12% decline in June that briefly pushed prices below $4,000.
Image: Gold price in US dollars - 1 day chart Gold Outlook: Short-Term Risks Remain RBC says investors should not assume the recent rebound marks the start of a sustained rally.
"While we remain of the view that gold's upside story is not over, there remains the risk of near-term weakness."
The bank believes higher US interest rates and a stronger Dollar could continue weighing on bullion in the short run.
However, RBC argues much of the current macro outlook has already been priced into gold.
"We think risk is skewed to the upside in the medium term, especially towards year end."
The bank expects several potential catalysts—including renewed geopolitical uncertainty, softer US Dollar sentiment and changing expectations for bond yields—to help gold regain momentum.
"We think it's a mistake to hinge our view on the current consensus views being baked into gold prices."
RBC also believes structural demand remains intact, with central banks continuing to accumulate gold while investors are unlikely to remain underweight indefinitely.
"We think central banks remain supportive and that investors will not sit on the sidelines indefinitely."
Image: XAU/USD 6 month chart Near-Term Gold Price Forecast: RBC Says Volatility Should Give Way to Higher Prices Although RBC expects further short-term weakness cannot be ruled out, the bank continues to believe the broader bull market remains intact.
It argues that once current concerns over higher interest rates and Dollar strength begin to fade, long-term drivers such as government debt, reserve diversification and geopolitical uncertainty should once again support higher gold prices into year-end.
Death Cross and Macro Factors Intensify Downside Pressures The $4000 level, I think, extends down to the $3900 level, and if that is going to be the case, then I suspect we could see this market drop down to $3500 before it’s all said and done. If we do get a little bit of a rally from here, then I think it should be viewed through the prism of selling signs of exhaustion. I just don’t have any interest in buying gold at the moment.
I think rates and the US dollar are both working against the value of gold long-term. Long term I like it, but we would have to get the situation in the Middle East sorted out, and I just don’t think we’re anywhere near that at the moment, so I think gold continues to slump in this environment. This is a market that is a situation that remains very fluid, and I think bearish in general. I would make it a point to be a trader who uses a small position size, as the headlines continue to see a lot of volatility in risk appetite.
Gold edged lower after opening with $20 gap lower on Monday, following the latest escalation in the Middle East that fueled inflationary risk and added to expectations that the Fed will keep higher interest rates or possibly opt for rate hikes, providing support to US dollar.
Markets also focus on this week’s key economic data – release of US June inflation report and Fed Chair Warsh’s semiannual testimony on economy, inflation and monetary policy that will add fresh details on overall outlook.
Technical studies on daily chart remain in mainly bearish configuration, following several death-crosses formed during June (20; 30; 55 / 200DMAs), 14-d momentum holding in negative zone and RSI below 50).
Fresh weakness after recent recovery stall, shifts near-term focus to the downside, with initial requirement on weekly close below Fibo support at $4076 (where bears were rejected four times) guarding key supports at $4000/$3950 (psychological / recent spikes below $4K), with firm break here (after a multiple failure) to generate bearish continuation signal of larger downtrend from new historical high.
At the upside, falling 20DMA marks first significant resistance ($4118), ahead of pivotal barrier at $4203 (July 6 recovery peak).
The information contained in this document was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed herein are in good faith, but are subject to change without notice. No liability accepted whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this document.
Fragile rebounds across precious metals and major FX pairs face renewed risks from the latest developments around the Strait of Hormuz and this week's US CPI report. Key technical levels remain in focus to determine the next directional breakout.
Iran and the US exchanged strikes following the disruption of the ceasefire framework. The US launched strikes against Iran's key Hormuz gateway and military infrastructure. Iran launched strikes against commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, including oil and LNG vessels. Fed Governor Kevin Warsh is expected to testify on Wednesday following Tuesday's US CPI report. US CPI is expected to decline from 4.2% to 3.8%, in line with the more than 40% decline in crude oil prices from their yearly highs. Crude oil prices continue to hold a fragile bullish rebound following the latest strikes, within a broader selloff driven by oversupply risks, rising OPEC+ production quotas, and recovering Gulf production and exports. Latest analysis: Crude Oil Weekly Outlook: Oversupply Risks Challenge WTI & Brent Despite Hormuz Tensions EUR/USD and gold are also holding fragile rebounds despite persistent US dollar strength, supported by lingering inflationary pressures stemming from the US-Iran conflict, reinforcing expectations for a higher-for-longer interest rate environment. As the US Dollar Index (DXY) holds above 101: EUR/USD continues to face bearish pressure below 1.1470. Gold continues to face bearish pressure below 4,200. EUR/USD Price Outlook: Monthly Time Frame – Log Scale
Source: TradingView
Key points from this chart:
EUR/USD's monthly price action continues to test the multi-year resistance-turned-support zone between 1.1280 and 1.1300. This area aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the January 2025-January 2026 advance. A breakdown below 1.1280 would expose the 1.1130-1.1000 region, where the 50% Fibonacci retracement converges with the upper boundary of the 2008-2025 descending channel, creating another potential major rebound zone. On the upside, a sustained move back above 1.1470, followed by 1.1600, would reinforce bullish continuation toward the key 1.1730-1.1800 resistance area. This zone could either trigger another major pullback or open the door for a rally toward levels last seen in 2021 and 2018 near 1.2300. These scenarios largely depend on whether the US dollar pulls back or breaks above its major resistance zone, as discussed in this video. USD/JPY Bulls Prepare for Major Move Higher?
Gold Price Outlook: Six-Month Time Frame – Log Scale
Source: TradingView
Key points from the six-month chart:
Gold is testing a breakdown below the 27.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 1920-2026 advance. A close below 3,930 would expose the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement near the 3,500-3,460 zone, which served as a five-month resistance area throughout 2025. Price action is also aligned with the trendline connecting consecutive highs between 2016 and 2025, a major resistance-turned-support level. This high-time-frame confluence zone could determine whether gold stages a major reversal or experiences a deeper decline. Gold Price Outlook: Daily Time Frame – Log Scale
Source: TradingView
Key points from this chart:
Despite the high-time-frame support confluence, gold's daily price action remains capped below a descending trendline connecting lower highs since March 2026, maintaining an overall bearish bias. Price action is currently holding a fragile rebound, testing the 27.2% Fibonacci retracement of the April-July decline. A move above 4,200 would shift focus toward: 4,300: 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. 4,420: 50% Fibonacci retracement, which would mark a sustained bullish shift from the current bearish bias. As long as DXY strength persists, as discussed in this video, downside risks remain elevated across both EUR/USD and gold unless a change in monetary policy direction is confirmed and/or key resistance levels are reclaimed.
Gold prices fell in Saudi Arabia on Monday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 489.84 Saudi Riyals (SAR) per gram, down compared with the SAR 497.35 it cost on Friday.
The price for Gold decreased to SAR 5,713.50 per tola from SAR 5,801.03 per tola on friday.
Unit measure
Gold Price in SAR
1 Gram
489.84
10 Grams
4,898.52
Tola
5,713.50
Troy Ounce
15,235.74
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Saudi Arabia by adapting international prices (USD/SAR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices fell in Malaysia on Monday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 532.01 Malaysian Ringgits (MYR) per gram, down compared with the MYR 540.62 it cost on Friday.
The price for Gold decreased to MYR 6,204.98 per tola from MYR 6,305.65 per tola on friday.
Unit measure
Gold Price in MYR
1 Gram
532.01
10 Grams
5,319.86
Tola
6,204.98
Troy Ounce
16,547.35
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Malaysia by adapting international prices (USD/MYR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold price (XAU/USD) attracts some sellers to near $4,070 during the early Asian trading hours on Monday. The precious metal extends its decline amid escalating tensions between the US and Iran. Traders will take more cues from the release of the US June Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data, which is due on Tuesday.
The US military said that it launched additional strikes against Iran on Sunday aimed at further weakening the Islamic Republic’s ability to strike civilian vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, Bloomberg reported. The US Central Command (CENTCOM) said in a social media post that the strikes were designed to limit Iran’s ability to attack civilian ships in the Strait of Hormuz.
Ongoing missile strikes between Washington and Tehran have boosted energy costs, triggering fresh inflation concerns and forcing the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to maintain its higher-for-longer rate stance. It’s worth noting that Gold is often used amid geopolitical uncertainty but does not yield interest, making it less attractive when interest rates are high.
The US CPI inflation data will take center stage on Tuesday. Analysts expect the headline CPI to decline by 0.1% MoM in June, while the core CPI is projected to show a rise of 0.3% during the same period. If the report shows a softer-than-expected outcome, this could weigh on the US dollar (USD) and support the USD-denominated commodity price in the near term.
Inflation FAQs Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls.
Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money.
Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.
Gold Technical Forecast: XAU/USD Weekly Trade Levels Gold has spent five consecutive weeks defending a pivotal support zone near the yearly lows. Repeated attempts to force a sustained breakdown have failed, raising the risk of a larger price inflection. The July opening range is forming just above support, increasing the importance of the next directional break. U.S. CPI and PPI data next week could provide the catalyst that resolves the current stalemate. Resistance 4319, 4492-4540 (key), 4894- Support 4074-4112 (key), 3887, 3570 For more than a month, sellers have repeatedly pressed the same technical floor without securing a decisive weekly breakdown. That resilience has left XAU/USD locked in an increasingly important consolidation as the July opening range develops and the broader March decline begins to lose momentum. With U.S. inflation data due next week, the next move could determine whether Gold is building a durable base or merely pausing before another leg lower. Battle lines drawn on the XAU/USD weekly technical chart.
Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this gold setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.
Gold Price Chart – XAU/USD Weekly
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; XAU/USD on TradingView
Technical Outlook: In my last Gold Technical Forecast we noted that XAU/USD was trading into pivotal support and that, “From a trend standpoint, the threat rises for an exhaustion low in the weeks ahead… From a trading standpoint, losses would need to be limited to 4074 IF price is heading for a larger recovery with a breach above 4540 needed to suggest a more meaningful reversal is underway.” Despite multiple intraweek attempts, the bears have been unable to mark a weekly close below this key support barrier with the July opening range now taking shape just above. We will be looking for the breakout for guidance here with the March downtrend vulnerable while above this pivot zone.
Initial weekly resistance is eyed at the 52-week moving average (currently near ~4272) and is backed closely by medium-term bearish invalidation at the objective yearly open at 4319. Note that channel resistance converges on this level into the close of month. Key resistance remains unchanged at 4493-4540- a region defined by the March low-week close (LWC), the 38.2% retracement of the of the March decline, and the 2025 high-close. A breach / weekly close above this threshold would be needed to suggest a more significant low is in place and a larger trend reversal is underway.
Weekly support rests with the 61.8% retracement of the March decline, the March low, and the October high-week reversal close (HWC) at 4074-4112. Price has been testing this support barrier for five-weeks now and a break / close below this level could fuel another bout of accelerate losses towards subsequent support objectives at the October swing low at 3887 backed by the trendline confluence near 3700 and the 100% extension at 3570. Both levels of interest for possible downside exhaustion / price inflection IF reached.
Bottom line: Gold is testing pivotal support with price carving the Jul opening-range just above. Look for the breakout to offer guidance here in the days ahead. From a trading standpoint, this support would need to hold IF price is heading for a larger recovery here with a breach / weekly close above the yearly open needed to invalidate the March downtrend.
Highlighting the economic calendar next week will be the release of key U.S. inflation data, with the June Consumer Price Index (CPI) due Tuesday followed by the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Wednesday. After Chair Warsh reaffirmed the Fed's commitment to restoring inflation to its 2% target, markets will be closely scrutinizing the data for clues on the future path of monetary policy. A stronger-than-expected inflation reading would likely reinforce expectations for additional Fed tightening, supporting the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields while weighing on gold prices. Conversely, softer inflation data could temper rate-hike expectations, easing pressure on bullion and allowing gold to further stabilize above this pivotal support zone. Stay nimble into the release and watch the weekly closes for guidance. Review my latest Gold Short-term Outlook for a closer look at the near-term XAU/USD technical trade levels.
Key US Economic Data Releases
Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.
Active Weekly Technical Charts British Pound (GBP/USD) Australian Dollar (AUD/USD) US Dollar Index (DXY) Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD) Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) Euro (EUR/USD) Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) --- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist
The price of Gold has recovered from June's sharp sell-off, and HSBC believes the precious metal can continue to rebound even as a hawkish Federal Reserve keeps US yields elevated.
The Gold price in US Dollars (XAU/USD) traded near $4,165 on Friday, up almost 1% on the day after rebounding more than 3% since the start of July.
The recovery follows an almost 12% decline in June, when prices briefly slipped below $4,000.
Image: Gold price in US Dollars - 2 day chart HSBC says the stronger US Dollar and higher real interest rates remain near-term headwinds, but argues that the recent correction has already priced in much of the Federal Reserve's hawkish shift.
The bank believes gold's longer-term fundamentals remain favourable despite the tougher macro backdrop, pointing to continued central-bank demand, geopolitical uncertainty and concerns over rising government debt.
HSBC argues that even if the Fed keeps interest rates higher for longer, structural demand should continue to underpin bullion.
Image: XAU/USD 6 month historical chart
The bank also expects official-sector buying to remain an important source of support, while investors are likely to rebuild positions once confidence grows that US yields have peaked.
Although HSBC acknowledges further volatility is likely in the near term, it believes gold should continue to "shine through" the current hawkish environment rather than enter a prolonged bear market.
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Gold prices fell in Pakistan on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 36,752.75 Pakistani Rupees (PKR) per gram, down compared with the PKR 36,800.86 it cost on Thursday.
The price for Gold decreased to PKR 428,676.90 per tola from PKR 429,238.00 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in PKR
1 Gram
36,752.75
10 Grams
367,526.60
Tola
428,676.90
Troy Ounce
1,143,139.00
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Pakistan by adapting international prices (USD/PKR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices fell in Saudi Arabia on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 497.03 Saudi Riyals (SAR) per gram, down compared with the SAR 497.70 it cost on Thursday.
The price for Gold decreased to SAR 5,797.23 per tola from SAR 5,805.06 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in SAR
1 Gram
497.03
10 Grams
4,970.27
Tola
5,797.23
Troy Ounce
15,459.55
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Saudi Arabia by adapting international prices (USD/SAR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Technical Indicators and Support Boundaries A breakdown below $3,900, I think, opens up a floor down to the $3,500 level in this market, and I think that’s probably pretty likely. Anytime this market rallies it seems to struggle, and with a reasonably strong US dollar, that’s going to continue to be a problem. Ultimately, I like the idea of perhaps fading short-term rallies that show signs of exhaustion, but really, at this point in time, I’m not overly aggressive.
I think gold is going to remain very noisy and that will probably be the way this market plays out for some time. With this, I like the idea of fading the first signs of exhaustion. I’m not really a big fan of jumping in with both feet, but I do recognize that if we break down, that could get ugly really quickly. If that’s going to be the case, then I anticipate that traders will continue to push and push, probably with a US dollar that’s rising at the same time.
Gold fell to 4,032 USD per ounce on Thursday, marking its second consecutive day of decline. Pressure on the market intensified amid fears that a new escalation of conflict in the Middle East could disrupt energy supplies and accelerate inflation.
The US military confirmed that it has been striking targets in Iran for the second consecutive day, seeking to limit Tehran’s ability to threaten shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. In response, Iran has announced preparations for a large-scale operation against American military bases in the region.
US President Donald Trump stated that, in his view, the ceasefire has effectively come to an end. He also warned of the possibility of further strikes against Iran and the imposition of an additional naval blockade.
Additional investor attention has been drawn to the minutes from the Fed’s June meeting. They showed that only a small proportion of the regulator’s representatives advocated a rate hike as early as June, with most participants remaining concerned about inflation risks.
The market continues to price in at least one Fed interest rate increase before the end of 2026, which limits gold’s upside potential despite ongoing demand for safe-haven assets.
Technical Analysis
On the H4 XAU/USD chart, the market is trading within a consolidation range around the 4,090 USD level. A decline to 4,018 USD and a subsequent rise to 4,088 USD have been completed. A further move lower towards 3,930 USD is expected, followed by a potential rebound to 4,055 USD, with scope for an extension to 4,150 USD. The MACD indicator confirms the current downside momentum, with its signal line below the centre line and pointing firmly downwards.
On the H1 chart, the market has broken below the 4,090 USD level and is moving lower towards 3,977 USD. A wide consolidation range is forming around 4,090 USD. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this scenario, with its signal line below the 50 level and pointing downwards towards 20, indicating continued downside pressure.
Conclusion Gold continues to decline as renewed Middle East conflict intensifies fears of energy supply disruptions and rising inflation. US strikes on Iran and Tehran’s threat of retaliation have escalated tensions, with President Trump declaring the ceasefire effectively over. Meanwhile, the Fed minutes revealed a cautious central bank, with only a minority advocating an immediate rate hike, while most members remain vigilant about inflation risks. Markets continue to price in at least one Fed rate hike before year-end, limiting gold’s appeal despite safe-haven demand. Technically, further downside towards 3,930 USD appears likely, with any recovery likely to be capped by ongoing geopolitical and monetary policy headwinds.
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Gold (XAU/USD) struggles to capitalize on the previous day's bounce from the $4,020 area, or a one-week low, and oscillates in a narrow range during the Asian session on Thursday. The US Dollar (USD) remains on the back foot in the absence of a notable hawkish shift in the FOMC Minutes and acts as a tailwind for the bullion. However, renewed US-Iran hostilities revive inflation fears and bolster bets on a US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate increase in 2026. This helps limit the downside for the USD and continues to undermine the non-yielding yellow metal.
The Minutes from the June 16–17 FOMC meeting, released on Wednesday, revealed that policymakers were divided with regard to the direction of interest rates. The minutes further stated that many participants indicated the appropriate level of the federal funds rate would be within or slightly below the current target range at the end of this year. This comes on top of last Thursday's soft US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report and does little to alter Fed hike bets. Fed officials, however, noted that the upside risk to inflation remains elevated and indicated that some policy firming would likely be warranted to return inflation to 2%.
Moreover, traders are still pricing in around a 70% chance that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs in September. This, along with a further escalation of tensions between the US and Iran, holds back the USD bears from placing aggressive bets. In the latest development, the US military unleashed a new wave of strikes against Iran in retaliation for Tehran’s attacks on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran retaliated by continuously targeting US military installations and assets across Bahrain and Kuwait. Adding to this, US President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that the ceasefire with Iran was now over.
The aforementioned fundamental backdrop favors the USD bulls, suggesting that any recovery attempt in the Gold price is more likely to be sold into and remain limited. Traders now look forward to the release of the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims data from the US, which, along with speeches from influential FOMC members, will drive the USD demand. The focus, however, will remain glued to the Middle East saga, which might continue to infuse volatility in global financial markets and produce some meaningful trading opportunities around the precious metal.
XAU/USD daily chart
Gold bears have the upper hand below 200-day SMA and within descending channelFrom a technical perspective, the XAU/USD pair keeps a bearish near-term bias beneath the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and within a downward parallel channel. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has turned positive, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 40.26, having recovered only modestly from oversold territory. This hints that any rebound would face strong resistance at the channel top near $4,247.94.
A sustained break above the channel barrier would be needed to ease the current bearish pressure, ahead of a more robust barrier at the 200-day SMA around $4,492.08. On the downside, the lower boundary of the descending channel at $3,811.93 emerges as the next significant support, where bulls would be expected to defend the broader uptrend if the ongoing correction extends.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Fed FAQs Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
At the end of June, I outlined the potential for gold to bounce from the $4,000 level. While there was, of course, the obligatory noise around that key support, bulls eventually gained some traction, with gold rising 6.6% from last week's low to Friday's high. Although prices have since pulled back, XAU/USD continues to hold above its recent cycle lows, leaving bulls to ponder whether another leg higher could still unfold.
View related analysis:
Gold Price Rebound? Futures Positioning Signals Support Above 4,000 AUD/USD Outlook 2026: Key Drivers for the Australian Dollar in Q3 FX Futures Positioning: US Dollar, EUR, GBP, JPY | COT Report Crude Oil Finds Support at Its Pre-War Close, Gold Bounces and USD Retreats Why Gold Bulls May Still Have the Upper Hand Gold Finds Support as Oil Rebounds and US Dollar Rally Fades It was encouraging to see WTI crude oil prices also bounce from the support level I highlighted last week. Oil prices had fallen 44% from their post-war spike, printed their smallest bearish weekly candle in more than four months, yet consistently held above their pre-war close with near perfection. Crude oil prices have risen by as much as 13% from last week's low as President Trump once again verbally attacks Iran, making it easy work for bulls after an extended selloff into a key support level.
Gold's price action is more nuanced for bulls, but they may still have a case for a cheeky bounce higher, at least over the near term.
Net-long exposure to the US dollar may be nearing a sentiment extreme, which I outlined again in my weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report. Bulls have also lost a little momentum on the US dollar index rally, which is helping gold hold above 4,000 for now.
Source: NYMEX, ICE, IMM, CFTC (COT)
Gold Seasonality Favors Bulls in July and August July tends to offer a slight seasonal advantage for bulls, with data since 2000 showing average and median returns of around 1% and a 56% win rate. Among those bullish Julys, the average gain has been 3.8%. August seasonality is even stronger, with a 64% win rate, average and median returns of around 2%, and an average gain of 4.3% during bullish months.
Source: LSEG
Gold's Daily July Seasonality Points to a Bullish Window Seasonal patterns may not provide a roadmap for the future, but they can highlight tendencies in price action during quieter periods that are not overshadowed by major economic or geopolitical drivers. With volatility seemingly lower for now and markets seeking a fresh catalyst, perhaps seasonality can play out in the weeks ahead. On that note, gold's daily returns during July also show that 8–13 July tend to deliver positive average returns alongside mostly favourable win rates. Extra caution is warranted when interpreting daily seasonality data, but the pattern is at least worth highlighting.
Source: LSEG
Gold Futures (GC) Technical Analysis Daily Chart: Gold Bulls Eye a C-Wave Recovery The daily chart shows that while gold remains in a downtrend, it has staged a countertrend rally. The question now is whether bulls have enough fuel in the tank for another leg higher as part of a potential ABC correction. The 20-day EMA continues to cap prices as resistance and momentum has turned lower, yet Wednesday's wide-legged doji suggests bears may already be losing their grip. The fact that this has occurred above 4,000, while gold has entered a period of the month with a slight bullish seasonal tailwind, adds weight to the case for another move higher over the near term as part of the 'C' wave of an ABC correction.
1-Hour Chart: Volume Still Needs to Confirm the Bounce The 1-hour chart shows Wednesday's low respected last week's volume point of control (VPOC), adding further weight to the case for a potential swing low. That said, volumes during the recent bounce from those lows have declined, suggesting a lack of bullish participation. Bulls may therefore want to remain on guard for a pullback within yesterday's range today.
Source: LSEG
My near-term bias remains bullish while gold holds above the recent swing lows, and with Wednesday's doji forming above 4,000, bulls may be preparing to make their next move. A bullish divergence formed on the daily RSI (14) heading into the swing lows, suggesting the mature bearish trend has been losing momentum. Note that the 200-day and 50-day EMAs sit near the June volume point of control (VPOC), just above the 4,300 handle. A 100% projection of Wave A from the assumed Wave B low lands near the 4,300 handle. With a notable cluster of resistance between 4,300 and 4,340, bears may also be lurking to capitalise on any such bounce with a view to taking gold back below 4,000. View the full economic calendar
That being said, a short-term bounce is possible. So, if you are a short-term trader, that could be your plan for the day. We have pushed back a little bit against the selling pressure. US rates in a climb during the early part of the session will continue to put pressure on gold, so I’m not a big fan of buying here, but I do recognize that the technical bounce could be part of the play.
Imminent Death Cross Threatens Gold Outlook The 50-day EMA is likely to break down below the 200-day EMA, and if it does, that kicks off the so-called Death Cross. It would not be a good sign either. That being said, the indicator does tend to lag, so that’s just telling you what you’ve seen over the last several months that gold has been in trouble.
I don’t really see anything on this chart that tells me gold is suddenly going to explode to the upside. Longer term, I like it, but right now I think we have too many things working against it for it to truly take off anytime soon.
