Track market-moving stories before they get noisy

The US dollar suffered its sharpest fall in the last two weeks following Kevin Warsh’s intention to shift the Fed’s responsibility for bringing inflation back to the 2% target onto the financial markets. The new Fed Chair emphasised that the rally in Treasury yields is tightening financial conditions and holding back price growth. Inflation expectations remain at acceptable levels.

Investors interpreted this rhetoric as an intention to extend the pause and avoid tightening monetary policy for as long as possible. The probability of a federal funds rate hike in September has fallen from 75% to 65%, and the likelihood of two hikes in 2026 has dropped from 51% to 44%. This led to a weakening of the US dollar against major peers, despite falling stock indices, a rally in Treasury bond yields and rising oil prices against the backdrop of the escalating conflict in the Middle East.

However, Commerzbank believes that the rally in Brent crude will not necessarily weigh on the EURUSD and GBPUSD. It is leading to a rise in inflation expectations in Europe and to an increased likelihood of policy tightening by the ECB and the Bank of England. At the same time, inflation expectations in the US are not rising, nor is the likelihood of Fed monetary tightening. According to DBS Group, Kevin Warsh’s withdrawal of his forward guidance is leaving US markets and the dollar stumbling in the dark. By contrast, the euro and the pound may benefit from central banks maintaining their guidance on the future path of interest rates.

In this regard, the BoE meeting could provide sterling support. Investors do not expect a rise in the repo rate but anticipate hawkish rhetoric amid the escalating conflict in the Middle East and rising energy prices. Oil and gas prices are higher than they were at the time of the Committee’s previous meeting.

Despite the Bank of England holding rates for a fifth consecutive meeting, the futures market is pricing in a 65% chance of a hike in September and nearly two increases by the end of this year. Bloomberg experts forecast that only two of the nine MPC members will vote for a rate hike. If the number is higher, GBPUSD could rise. 

Summary: GBPUSD may rise if the BoE holds rates but signals a hawkish policy stance, while a dovish Fed outlook pressures the US dollar. 

The Pound-Dollar rate could remain under pressure unless the Bank of England delivers a sufficiently hawkish message after an inconclusive Federal Reserve decision. The Pound to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate weakened on Thursday morning as markets turned their attention to the Bank of England following a divided Federal Reserve policy decision.

GBP/USD retreated towards $1.3345 during early European trading, extending its recovery from Wednesday’s pre-Fed lows but remaining under pressure from renewed safe-haven demand for the US Dollar.

Latest — Exchange Rates:

Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD): 1.333627 (-0.23%)

Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD): 1.144507 (-0.19%)

Dollar to Yen (USD/JPY): 163.59918 (+0.17%)

Federal Reserve Holds Rates but Offers Little Guidance The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% on Wednesday, in line with the majority of economists’ forecasts.

The decision was nevertheless more divided than expected, with three policymakers voting for an immediate 25-basis-point rate increase because of persistent inflation risks.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh reaffirmed the central bank’s commitment to returning inflation to its 2% target but provided few firm clues over the timing of any future policy move.

Warsh indicated that further tightening could be required if inflation pressures remained elevated, although he resisted offering the explicit forward guidance markets had become accustomed to under previous Fed leadership.

The initial market response was mixed. Short-term Treasury yields declined as investors reduced expectations of a September rate rise, while long-term yields climbed sharply amid concerns that the Fed was not acting decisively enough to contain inflation.

The Dollar initially weakened following the announcement but recovered during Asian trading as renewed US attacks on Iranian targets increased demand for defensive assets.

Pound Sterling Awaits Bank of England Guidance Attention now turns to Thursday’s Bank of England interest-rate announcement.

The Monetary Policy Committee is widely expected to leave Bank Rate unchanged at 3.75%, placing the focus on the vote split, updated economic forecasts and Governor Andrew Bailey’s comments.

UK inflation fell to 2.6% in June, but policymakers continue to face uncertainty over the impact of elevated oil and gas prices on household costs and inflation expectations.

Markets have priced a meaningful risk of higher UK interest rates during the coming year, although economists remain divided over whether the Bank will ultimately need to tighten policy.

A hawkish vote split or a warning that renewed energy-price pressures could make inflation more persistent would offer the Pound support.

Sterling could struggle, however, if the Bank emphasises weak domestic growth, slowing private-sector wages or the risk that tighter financial conditions will weigh on the economy.

Near-Term GBP/USD Forecast: BoE Tone to Determine Next Move The near-term Pound-Dollar outlook is likely to depend heavily on whether the Bank of England validates or pushes back against expectations for future rate increases.

A hawkish BoE announcement could allow GBP/USD to recover towards the $1.3400–$1.3430 area.

A move above this zone would ease immediate downside pressure and potentially bring $1.3480 back into view.

Conversely, a cautious policy statement or a less hawkish vote than markets expect could drive the Pound back towards $1.3300.

A sustained break below $1.3300 would expose the recent lows around $1.3220.

The Dollar will also remain sensitive to developments in the Middle East, with any further escalation likely to increase safe-haven demand and maintain upward pressure on global energy prices.

Later in the week, the latest US GDP figures could also influence the pair. Stronger-than-expected second-quarter growth would reinforce expectations that the US economy can withstand elevated interest rates and could provide additional support for the Dollar.

British Pound retreats from weekly high vs firmer USD as focus shifts to BoE, US dataThe GBP/USD pair struggles to capitalize on the previous day's strong move up to the weekly high and drifts lower during the Asian session on Thursday. Spot prices currently trade around mid-1.3300s, down over 0.10% for the day, and, for now, seem to have stalled the recovery move from a nearly four-week low, touched on Tuesday.

The US Dollar (USD) regains some positive traction following the previous day's post-FOMC slide to an over one-week low and turns out to be a key factor exerting downward pressure on the GBP/USD pair. As was widely expected, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) held interest rates steady at the end of a two-day meeting on Wednesday. The central bank, however, refrained from adopting a more aggressive stance on monetary policy, which, in turn, weighed heavily on the Greenback. Read more...

British Pound Sterling rents a rally it has to pay for in the morningThe Federal Reserve (Fed) held its target range at 3.50% to 3.75% at 18:00 GMT on a 9-3 vote, with three voting members preferring an immediate quarter-point increase, and Sterling rallied through the 1.3300 shelf it lost last week to trade just above 1.3350. None of that is a British story. The pair held a 30-pip band around 1.3300 for the whole London session and did all of its work after the American headline.

Sterling has not traded its own economy for a fortnight. June Retail Sales beat against an expected decline, the business surveys returned to growth, and household confidence reached a six-month high. None of it moved the currency off a broken shelf. What moved it today was a Fed that produced its most hawkish vote record of the cycle and then refused to say what the vote meant. Read more...

British Pound: Policy risk with range-bound trade against US Dollar – ScotiabankScotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret highlight that GBP/USD is flat around 1.33, supported by stronger United Kingdom (UK) lending data and stabilizing Bank of England (BoE) expectations. They stress that UK fiscal narratives remain important for sentiment toward government debt. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is expected to deliver a hawkish hold at 3.75%, while technically the British Pound (GBP) trades in a June range between 1.3150 and 1.3550, with near‑term moves seen between 1.3250 and 1.3350.

"The pound is also quiet and also entering Wednesday’s NA session flat vs. the USD as it also consolidates within a remarkably tight range—around 1.33. The fundamental release calendar has included the latest lending and money supply data, offering a notable beat on both mortgage approvals and a sizeable jump in lending." Read more...

Key Points:EUR/USD pulled back as traders focused on the strong rally in the oil markets. GBP/USD moved lower as traders prepared for Fed decision. USD/JPY remained stuck near the 164.00 level.

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U.S. Dollar Moves Higher As Traders Wait For Fed Interest Rate Decision

DXY 290726 4h Chart U.S. Dollar Index gains ground as traders prepare for Fed Interest Rate Decision, which will be released soon.

Analysts expect that Fed will leave the federal funds rate unchanged. Interestingly, FedWatch Tool indicates that there is a 33.7% chance for a rate hike. As usual, forex traders are cautious ahead of the key event of the week.

U.S. Dollar Index failed to settle below the support level at 101.15 – 101.30 and rebounded towards the 101.50 level. In case U.S. Dollar Index manages to settle above 101.50, it will head towards the nearest resistance level, which is located in the 101.80 – 101.95 range.

EUR/USD Pulls Back Amid Rally In The Oil Markets EUR/USD 290726 4h Chart EUR/USD is losing ground as traders react to the strong rally in the oil markets. Oil prices are up by more than 7% as Iran attacked a U.S. base in Jordan. High oil prices will put additional pressure on the European economy and may force the Fed to be more hawkish, which is bearish for the European currency.

The nearest support level for EUR/USD is located in the 1.1350 – 1.1365 range. A successful test of this level will push EUR/USD towards the next support at 1.1285 – 1.1300. RSI is in the moderate territory, so there is plenty of room to gain additional momentum in case the right catalysts emerge.

GBP/USD Retreats Ahead Of Fed Decision GBP/USD 290726 4h Chart GBP/USD is moving lower as traders wait for Fed decision and focus on the rally in the oil markets. Traders are not ready for big moves ahead of Fed’s announcement.

In case GBP/USD settles below the 1.3280 level, it will head towards the support at 1.3250 – 1.3265. A move below the 1.3250 level will push GBP/USD towards the next support level at 1.3170 – 1.3185.

USD/CAD 290726 4h Chart USD/CAD is losing some ground despite the pullback in precious metals. Other commodity-related currencies have found themselves under pressure in today’s trading session.

If USD/CAD declines below the 50 MA at 1.4081, it will head towards the nearest support level, which is located in the 1.4010 – 1.4025 range. On the upside, a move above the resistance level at 1.4125 – 1.4140 will open the way to the test of the next resistance at 1.4235 – 1.4250.

USD/JPY Looks Ready To Test The 164.00 Level USD/JPY 290726 4h Chart USD/JPY continues its attempts to settle above the key resistance level as traders react to rising Treasury yields. The yield of 2-year Treasuries climbed above the 4.33% level, while the yield of 10-year Treasuries settled near 4.65%. Traders should note that USD/JPY will be extremely sensitive to Fed decision and comments from Fed Chair Warsh.

In case USD/JPY manages to settle above the 164.00 level, it will gain additional upside momentum and head towards the 165.00 level. USD/JPY has not tested the 165.00 level since 1986. It remains to be seen whether Bank of Japan would try to defend the yen as the Japanese currency is fundamentally weak and any attempts to break the current trend may waste reserves.

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GBP/USD continued to consolidate at 1.3283 on Wednesday. The British pound hit a near one-month low in the previous session as investors monitored developments in the Middle East, while the dollar drew support from expectations that the Federal Reserve could raise rates today.

The suspension of US strikes on Iran contributed to a decline in oil prices and somewhat eased inflationary risks. However, US government bond yields fell only modestly, reflecting cautious market sentiment.

Attention is now turning to the Bank of England meeting on Thursday. The regulator is expected to hold rates at 3.75%, a view supported by fresh inflation data. In June, consumer price growth slowed to 2.6% on an annual basis – a 15-month low and below the Bank’s own expectations.

The rise in wholesale energy prices has not yet been fully reflected in regulated tariffs for British households. This has kept UK inflation below that of the US and the eurozone, where markets still anticipate rate hikes in September or October.

Technical analysis

On the H4 GBP/USD chart, the market is forming a downward move towards 1.3267. A wide consolidation range around the 1.3310 level is taking shape. An upside breakout would open the way for a move towards 1.3375, while a downside breakout would suggest a move towards 1.3260, with scope for the trend to extend to 1.3190. The MACD indicator supports this scenario, with its signal line below zero and pointing firmly downwards.

On the H1 chart, the market has formed a compact consolidation range around the 1.3309 level, currently extending down to 1.3272. A move higher towards 1.3310 is expected, followed by a decline to 1.3260. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this scenario, with its signal line below 80 and pointing downwards towards 20.

ConclusionGBP/USD has fallen to its lowest level in nearly a month as the dollar remains supported by expectations of a potential Fed rate hike. While the suspension of US strikes on Iran has helped lower oil prices and ease inflationary pressures, cautious sentiment persists as markets await the outcome of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting later today. Attention will then shift to the Bank of England’s decision on Thursday, where rates are expected to remain unchanged at 3.75%, supported by softer UK inflation data. Technically, sterling appears poised for further downside towards 1.3260 and potentially 1.3190, with the near-term outlook heavily dependent on central bank guidance and geopolitical developments.

The British Pound (GBP) is marginally higher at around 1.3300 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Wednesday. The GBP/USD pair edges up as the US Dollar ticks lower ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy announcement at 18:00 GMT.

In the European session, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades marginally lower to near 101.30.

Investors will pay close attention to the Fed’s interest rate decision as traders are not aggressively confident that the central bank will leave interest rates unchanged again. The CME FedWatch tool shows that the odds of the Fed leaving interest rates unchanged in the range of 3.50%-3.75% are 69.5%. In the last four policy meetings, the Fed didn’t execute any monetary policy adjustment and left policy rates steady.

Financial markets will also focus on the monetary policy statement and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference to get fresh cues regarding inflation and the economic outlook in the wake of ongoing military aggression in the Middle East.

On Thursday, investors will focus on the Bank of England’s (BoE) monetary policy announcement. The BoE is expected to keep interest rates steady at 3.75%, with a 7-2 majority.

Analysts at Rabobank also said in a note that, “for now, the market is expecting steady policy from the MPC,” even as “hawkish dissenters will keep the market debating the risk of policy tightening from the BoE.” They argue that this debate is unlikely to translate into action in the near term, given “the backdrop of soft activity indicators and uncertainty about the autumn budget,” and conclude that RaboResearch “expects steady policy through to the end of the year.”

GBP/USD technical analysis

GBP/USD trades marginally higher at around 1.3300, but is retaining a near-term bearish bias as it holds beneath the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 1.3353 and below the broken downward resistance trend line that now caps the market around 1.3489.

The Relative Strength Index (14) hovers near 44, hinting at subdued upside momentum and suggesting that recent rebounds remain corrective while the pair trades under these overhead technical barriers.

Strategists at Scotiabank have also described the short-term technical backdrop for GBP/USD as "bearish," noting that the "RSI is drifting further into bearish territory and threatening a push below 40." They highlight that the "local range is bound between the late June low in the mid-1.31s and the mid-July high in the mid-1.35s," with "near-term support at 1.3250" and "near-term resistance at 1.3350." This configuration, they suggest, underscores a market that remains vulnerable within a defined range as momentum indicators continue to deteriorate.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Economic Indicator BoE MPC Vote Rate Unchanged Interest rates are set by the Bank of England’s (BoE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC). The MPC sets an interest rate it judges will enable the BoE’s inflation target to be met. It is comprised of nine members – the Governor, the three Deputy Governors, the Bank's Chief Economist and four external members appointed directly by the Chancellor. Investors look at each member’s vote in order to seek cues over how unanimous was the decision on interest rates.

Read more.

Next release: Thu Jul 30, 2026 11:00

Frequency: Irregular

Consensus: 7

Previous: 7

Source: Bank of England

Key Points:Today's Federal Reserve decision and forward guidance are expected to drive volatility across DXY, EUR/USD and GBP/USD.The dollar remains supported by resilient U.S. economic data, safe-haven demand and expectations for higher interest rates.DXY continues holding above key moving averages, with $101.69 acting as the next major breakout resistance.EUR/USD remains capped below descending trendline resistance as policy divergence continues to favour the U.S. dollar.GBP/USD stays under pressure ahead of the Bank of England meeting as traders assess the outlook for UK interest rates.

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Dollar Strength Anchored by Fed Outlook as Euro and Sterling Face Policy Divergences The dollar index was supported recently by the possibility that the Fed might increase rates when it announces its decision due Wednesday, July 29. Traders have given the US central bank a decent probability of hiking rates this year, with chances of a move in July hovering around 33 percent and a higher chance of a move in September, consistent with stronger-than-expected US economic data, energy-related upside inflation risk and a more hawkish stance implied by the Fed’s June projections under Chair Kevin Warsh. Relative growth outperformance against other developed nations, foreign capital flows into US assets, and periodic safe-haven inflows stemming from geopolitical risk associated with the situation in the Middle East have also added to the dollar’s appeal against a basket of currencies.

In contrast, the euro was weighed down by the widening interest rate differential between the United States and the European Union. In June, the European Central Bank increased its key deposit facility rate to 2.25 percent, which was its first increase in three years, before keeping rates unchanged in its latest meeting on July 23. Growth in the euro area is sluggish, as the ECB staff projection was revised lower in June and energy prices stemming from the ongoing war in the region continued to feed into overall inflationary pressures.

Officials at the ECB have not sounded too urgent about hiking rates further, but the gap between interest rate policy in the euro area and the United States still favors the dollar even though some market participants anticipate a possible narrowing in rate expectations later this year.

Meanwhile, the main catalyst for the British pound in the coming session will be the Bank of England’s rate decision on Thursday. Bank Rate is at 3.75 percent after two consecutive hold decisions by the Monetary Policy Committee. This time around, policymakers appear split between those fearful of second-round inflationary effects and those concerned about softer labor market conditions as well as weaker than expected readings from the most recent consumer price data release.

UK growth is likely to decelerate this year as the economy grapples with high energy prices and tighter financial conditions, although further fiscal austerity is likely to remain a concern going forward. Relative rate expectations as well as domestic political or budgetary developments may drive the pair this week.

Market participants will closely scrutinize the Fed’s statement and accompanying news conference for clues as to how policymakers view the interplay between the persistence of inflation and weakness in economic activity. The statement could ultimately determine whether the dollar’s recent uptrend continues or if narrowing rate differentials could lead to gains for the euro and sterling in the short term.

U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) Technical Analysis: Uptrend Holds Despite Rejection at Major Resistance Dollar Index Price Chart – Source: Tradingview Despite selling pressure near 101.69, the USD Index is still maintaining its medium-term upward trend, staying above the ascending trendline as well as the 50-EMA (101.24) and 100-EMA (101.10). RSI has dropped to 46. Key resistance levels are located at 101.69, 102.06 and 102.42. On the flip side, support levels are seen at 100.96, 100.50 and 99.90.

As long as the USD Index is holding above 100.96, the uptrend should remain intact. A move above 101.69 could spark a fresh rally towards 102.06, while a break below 100.96 could see the index drop towards 100.50 and 99.90.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: Bears Defend Former Channel Support

GBP/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview GBP/USD is still trading below the broken ascending channel after failing to reclaim former support. Price is also trading below the 50-EMA (1.3347) and 100-EMA (1.3360), while the RSI is around 40. Key resistance levels are located at 1.3349, 1.3416 and 1.3482. On the flip side, support levels are seen at 1.3272, 1.3210 and 1.3140.

As long as GBP/USD is holding below 1.3349, the outlook remains on the bearish side. If the pair breaks above 1.3349, the focus could turn towards 1.3416, while a move below 1.3272 would likely send the pair down to 1.3210.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Descending Trendline Continues to Cap Recovery EUR/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview Failing to reclaim the broken ascending trendline, EUR/USD is now moving below the 50-EMA (1.1399) and 100-EMA (1.1413), while the descending trendline continues to act as resistance. The pair is staging a recovery from the 1.1364 support area, though upside gains remain constrained by the descending trendline. RSI is at 54. Key resistance areas are located at 1.1410, 1.1443 and 1.1481. On the flip side, support levels are seen at 1.1364, 1.1328 and 1.1294.

Since the EUR/USD is trading below 1.1410, the bias remains on the sell side. If the pair manages to rise above 1.1410, the focus could turn towards 1.1443, or if 1.1410 rejects price, the EUR/USD may retrace towards 1.1364.

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US Dollar Talking Points: The US Dollar retains a bullish look but the big question here is whether the rate hike odds that have priced in remain after tomorrow’s Fed meeting. While newly installed Fed Chair Kevin Warsh taking a hawkish approach makes sense up to this point the bigger question is whether he’ll push the envelope with stocks showing relative weakness, which would also possibly expose President Trump’s choice in the nomination process.

It’s one of those weeks where the range of possible outcomes is far and wide. As we go into tomorrow’s Fed meeting there’s a peculiar degree of indecision, as there’s an approximate 30% probability of rates being hiked tomorrow.

To this point, the Fed has often used messaging and media interviews to telegraph their actions to avoid unsettling market participants and, in turn, inviting volatility. But that’s not the case for tomorrow and this gives some potential for price movements.

CME Fedwatch Rate Probabilities for July FOMC Data taken from CME Fedwatch Going out to the end of the year shows a near 90% chance of at least one rate hike, with a 50% chance of at least two rate hikes.

If this were to happen, it would make President Trump’s choice to lead the Fed appear as through he’s directly refuting the President’s desire for rate cuts, especially considering this is into the lead-in to the US election in November.

This also helps to give some context to the US Dollar move of strength, as it was the last Fed meeting, on June 17th, where the USD broke out and ran to its current high. This also sets a very high bar for continued USD strength as not only will Warsh need to sound very hawkish tomorrow, but he’ll have to sound concerned that inflation isn’t going in the right direction which would lead to expectation for even more hawkishness down the road.

CME Fedwatch Rate Probabilities into End of 2026 Data taken from CME Fedwatch US Dollar – Is That All? The last Fed meeting in June was important as it was a quarterly rate decision, so we got updated guidance and projections, unlike tomorrow’s, which is just an announcement and a press conference. This puts even more emphasis on Kevin Warsh, but when we heard from the bank and the Summary of Economic Projections last month, DXY put in a massive breakout that pushed the USD up to a fresh yearly high, until resistance showed at the Fibonacci level of 101.80.

From there – profit taking showed in an orderly fashion in the form of a bull flag, and that led to the reaction from two weeks ago when below-expected CPI and PPI prints provided a dip with which buyers could react. I looked into those in the webinar at the time and bulls reacted in a big way, sparking a bullish trend that lasted for the next week and change.

More recently, however, the move has stalled ahead of that 101.80 level and given how aggressively rate hikes have priced-in as seen from the above two tables, it would seem the Fed would really have to shock the market to continue this rally in the Dollar.

Also notable – and addressed below – is the US Dollar from the perspective of counterparts and what could lead to a reliably stable trend in the DXY basket.

US Dollar Daily Price Chart Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview USD Structure At this point a simple move of less-hawkishness can help to inspire a pullback and I think from Warsh’s perspective that would probably be the optimal outcome, especially considering the matter in USD/JPY and what could possibly happen to Treasury rates on the long-end of the curve if markets become unsettled.

As looked at coming into this week, there’s short-term bullish structure to match the long-term backdrop. So far, the ‘s1’ level has held support, but into tomorrow, the ‘s2’ zone is also viable, running from 100.86-100.99, with 100.65 and 100.36-100.44 below that.

US Dollar Four-Hour Price Chart Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview USD/JPY

There’s another ascending triangle in USD/JPY and with rate decisions from both economies this week that can present a dangerous scenario.

As I said in the video I’d be surprised if a visit to 165.00 doesn’t bring some kind of reaction from policymakers, either in the form of an actual intervention or perhaps just a threat of one. The bigger question is whether that’ll work as anything more than a pullback and until the Bank of Japan sounds more concerned about inflation I have a hard time getting too aggressive on reversal scenarios in the pair, particularly with markets so amped up for US rate hikes into the end of this year.

I think this could have an outsized impact on the USD because that carry trade can be truly difficult to gauge in size. JPY is a mere 13.6% allocation of the USD basket but like we saw back in July of 2024, if that massive carry trade begins to unwind the Dollar selling could show in pairs even without the Japanese Yen, such as EUR/USD.

At this point there’s another ascending triangle setting up in USD/JPY and so far bulls haven’t been able to push beyond 164, which I think echoes that expectation of something happening around 165. But if we see Warsh show calm and perhaps Ueda sound a bit more hawkish, we could get a pullback that could allow for trend continuation.

USD/JPY Four-Hour Chart Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview EUR/USD

The Euro is 57.6% of the DXY basket and despite those high odds for rate hikes in the US later this year, the pair has been rather unmoved of late – even with a wide open door for bears to make a push.

Last week saw a dovish ECB produce a bearish engulf on the daily to break a bear flag. A day later, the pullback saw sellers show up at prior support of 1.1402.

But now, not only is there no fresh low there’s a build of a falling wedge pattern. If we do hear Warsh as less-hawkish tomorrow this could give shorts excuse to pare positions and that could lead to a counter-trend move. Whether that becomes anything more than a pullback could, paradoxically, dial back to the argument around the Japanese Yen. But until there’s a closed body break on the daily above the 1.1500 level this market has a bearish big picture bias.

EUR/USD Four-Hour Chart Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview GBP/USD When it comes to the Dollar I always try to retain some degree of balance, because, after all, it is a basket of underlying currencies rather than a market traded completely in a vacuum. GBP/USD still retains a bearish look and there’s a BoE rate decision on Thursday morning, less than 24 hours after the Fed.

The 1.3300 level remains a problematic spot but there’s a similar falling wedge that’s developed here, and if Warsh and perhaps even the BoJ can successfully tilt a pullback in the US Dollar and USD/JPY, there may be something to work with in Cable. First – bulls would need to take out 1.3325-1.3343, and then the 1.3390 area would be the next spot for them to encounter. But – at that point we can look for a higher-low and that’s something that could possibly lead-in to reversal scenarios in the pair.

GBP/USD Four-Hour Price Chart Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview --- written by James Stanley, Senior Market Analyst, Global Macro

U.S. Dollar Retreats As CB Consumer Confidence Drops

DXY 280726 4h Chart U.S. Dollar Index is losing ground as traders focus on the weak CB Consumer Confidence report and react to the strong pullback in the oil markets.

CB Consumer Confidence decreased from 92.2 in June (revised from 91.2) to 90.8 in July, compared to analyst forecast of 92.3.

Today, traders also had a chance to take a look at the Case-Shiller Home Price Index report for May. The report showed that home prices increased by +1.6% on a year-over-year basis, compared to analyst consensus of +1.3%.

Oil prices pulled back by -5% amid signs of de-escalation in the Middle East. Falling oil prices pushed Treasury yields lower, which was bearish for the American currency.

Currently, U.S. Dollar Index is trying to settle below the support level at 101.15 – 101.30. In case this attempt is successful, U.S. Dollar Index will head towards the next support, which is located in the 100.50 – 100.65 range.

EUR/USD Rebounds As Oil Markets Dive EUR/USD 280726 4h Chart EUR/USD gains ground, supported by the strong sell-off in the oil markets. Falling Treasury yields provided additional support to EUR/USD. The yield of 2-year Treasuries pulled back towards the 4.26% level, while the yield of 10-year Treasuries settled below 4.60%.

EUR/USD failed to settle below the support at 1.1350 – 1.1365 and rebounded towards the 50 MA at 1.1406. In case EUR/USD settles above the 50 MA, it will get to the test of the nearest resistance level at 1.1420 – 1.1435. A move above the 1.1435 level will push EUR/USD towards the next resistance at 1.1485 – 1.1500.

GBP/USD Moves Away From Weekly Lows GBP/USD 280726 4h Chart GBP/USD is moving higher as traders focus on general weakness of the American currency.

In case GBP/USD manages to settle above the 1.3300 level, it will head towards the nearest resistance at 1.3335 – 1.3350. A move above 1.3350 will push GBP/USD towards the 50 MA at 1.3380. If GBP/USD climbs above the 50 MA, it will head towards the resistance at 1.3450 – 1.3465.

USD/CAD Pulls Back As Traders Take Some Profits Off The Table Ahead Of Fed Decision USD/CAD 280726 4h Chart USD/CAD is losing ground as traders monitor commodity markets and prepare for Fed decision, which will be released tomorrow. FedWatch Tool indicates that there is a 71.7% chance that Fed will leave the federal funds rate unchanged.

If USD/CAD stays below the 1.4100 level, it will head towards the 50 MA at 1.4073. A move below the 50 MA will push USD/CAD towards the nearest support level at 1.4010 – 1.4025.

USD/JPY Remains Stuck Below 164.00 USD/JPY 280726 4h Chart USD/JPY continues its attempts to settle above the resistance level at 163.50 – 164.00 despite falling Treasury yields. Traders ignore intraday dynamics of Treasury markets and focus on hawkish Fed policy outlook. The strong pullback in the oil markets did not provide support to the Japanese yen, which was a bearish sign for the currency.

A successful test of the resistance at 163.50 – 164.00 will push USD/JPY towards the 165.00 level. RSI is in the moderate territory, so there is plenty of room to gain momentum in case the right catalysts emerge.

If you’d like to know more about how to trade forex, please visit our educational area.

The British Pound (GBP) extends its decline against the US Dollar (USD) to near 1.3277 during the European trading session on Tuesday, the lowest level seen in over three weeks. The GBP/USD pair faces selling pressure as the US Dollar rises further, with investors turning cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy announcement on Wednesday.

US Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.03%0.06%0.11%-0.12%0.35%0.09%0.03%EUR-0.03%0.03%0.09%-0.13%0.32%0.08%0.00%GBP-0.06%-0.03%0.07%-0.15%0.31%0.06%0.00%JPY-0.11%-0.09%-0.07%-0.23%0.24%-0.01%-0.05%CAD0.12%0.13%0.15%0.23%0.49%0.20%0.17%AUD-0.35%-0.32%-0.31%-0.24%-0.49%-0.23%-0.32%NZD-0.09%-0.08%-0.06%0.00%-0.20%0.23%-0.05%CHF-0.03%-0.01%0.00%0.05%-0.17%0.32%0.05% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

In European trade, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback's value against six major currencies, posts a fresh monthly high at 101.64.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders see a 62% chance that the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged in the range of 3.50%-3.75% in the policy announcement on Wednesday. Investors will closely track the policy announcement and Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh’s press conference to know whether the central bank’s decision will lean towards United States (US) President Donald Trump’s economic agenda.

On Monday, US President Trump urged Fed Chair Warsh to lower interest rates, adding that there was a good inflation report recently, costs were falling rapidly, and that prices should drop significantly once the Gulf War ends.

On the Pound Sterling front, investors await the Bank of England’s (BoE) monetary policy announcement on Thursday. The BoE is expected to leave interest rates unchanged at 3.75%, with a 7-2 majority. The major focus of financial markets will be on commentary on inflation and the economic outlook.

Economic Indicator Fed Interest Rate Decision The Federal Reserve (Fed) deliberates on monetary policy and makes a decision on interest rates at eight pre-scheduled meetings per year. It has two mandates: to keep inflation at 2%, and to maintain full employment. Its main tool for achieving this is by setting interest rates – both at which it lends to banks and banks lend to each other. If it decides to hike rates, the US Dollar (USD) tends to strengthen as it attracts more foreign capital inflows. If it cuts rates, it tends to weaken the USD as capital drains out to countries offering higher returns. If rates are left unchanged, attention turns to the tone of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement, and whether it is hawkish (expectant of higher future interest rates), or dovish (expectant of lower future rates).

Read more.

Next release: Wed Jul 29, 2026 18:00

Frequency: Irregular

Consensus: 3.75%

Previous: 3.75%

Source: Federal Reserve

The British Pound (GBP) trades with caution at around 1.3300 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Tuesday. The GBP/USD pair is marginally higher, but is broadly under pressure, with investors turning cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy announcement on Wednesday.

Investors expect the Fed to leave interest rates unchanged in the range of 3.50%-3.75% and warn of upside inflation risks. However, United States (US) President Donald Trump said on Monday that Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh should lower interest rates, adding that there was a good inflation report recently, costs were falling rapidly, and that prices should drop significantly once the Gulf War ends.

On the contrary, the CME FedWatch tool reflects traders seeing the monetary policy adjustment on the hawkish side. There is an 80.8% chance that the Fed will deliver an interest rate hike in September, the tool shows.

This week, investors also await the Bank of England’s (BoE) monetary policy announcement on Thursday, in which it is expected to keep interest rates steady at 3.75%, with a 7-2 majority.

GBP/USD technical analysis

GBP/USD trades marginally higher at around 1.3300, but is holding a bearish near-term bias as it remains capped beneath the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.3358 and below the broader descending resistance trend line that projects from the 1.3862 area.

The Relative Strength Index (14) near 43 stays below the midline, hinting that downside pressure persists rather than signaling an oversold condition, while the pair consolidates closer to underlying trend-line support than to the overhead resistance cluster.

On the topside, initial resistance is located at the 20-day EMA around 1.3360, with further supply expected near the prior resistance trend-line break zone at 1.3487. On the downside, the market finds structural support around the horizontal support of the Descending Triangle formation, where a sustained break would likely open the door to the psychological level of 1.3000.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Economic Indicator BoE Interest Rate Decision The Bank of England (BoE) announces its interest rate decision at the end of its eight scheduled meetings per year. If the BoE is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and raises interest rates it is usually bullish for the Pound Sterling (GBP). Likewise, if the BoE adopts a dovish view on the UK economy and keeps interest rates unchanged, or cuts them, it is seen as bearish for GBP.

Read more.

Next release: Thu Jul 30, 2026 11:00

Frequency: Irregular

Consensus: 3.75%

Previous: 3.75%

Source: Bank of England

British Pound softens as Fed rate uncertainty supports US DollarGBP/USD edges lower after opening at a bullish gap, remaining within positive territory and trading around 1.3290 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The currency pair is under pressure as the US Dollar (USD) stabilizes, driven by market caution ahead of the upcoming Federal Reserve policy decision due on Wednesday.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are pricing in nearly a 38% chance of a rate hike in July, an unusually high level of uncertainty so close to a meeting. Citadel Securities expects the Fed to deliver a rate increase to solidify Chairman Kevin Warsh’s inflation-fighting credibility following his repeated promises to restore price stability. Looking further ahead, the probability of at least a 25-basis-point hike in September currently sits at approximately 81.4%. Read more...

Britain's best data week of the summer sends British Pound Sterling to a four-week lowBritish Pound Sterling trades beneath 1.3300 against the Dollar on Monday, roughly 0.3% lower on the day and back at ground it last held in the opening days of July. It gets there at the end of the strongest run of British data since the spring, which is the part worth sitting with. The Dollar itself did close to nothing all session.

The past week handed Britain the sort of data run its currency has been waiting for. Retail sales rose 1% in June against expectations of a small decline, helped by warm weather and World Cup spending. Consumer confidence climbed to a six-month high in July, and preliminary business activity surveys put the private sector back into expansion ahead of forecasts. Read more...

British Pound tumbles as risk-off mood boosts the US DollarThe Pound Sterling retreats by 0.13% even though the Greenback is flat during the day. Risk appetite shifted sour on news that a Chinese state-backed company is producing chipmaking machines, prompting a sell-off in ASML, the Netherlands-based company. The GBP/USD trades at 1.3305, after reaching a high of 1.3363.

The de-escalation of the Middle East conflict is a relief for major central banks as Oil prices slide as the US paused attacks on Iran over the weekend. The US President Donald Trump warned of further military action if negotiations between Washington and Tehran fail. He said that attacks would be “very powerful.” Read more...

The Pound Sterling retreats by 0.13% even though the Greenback is flat during the day, as risk appetite shifted sour on news that a Chinese state-backed company is producing chipmaking machines, prompting a sell-off in ASML, the Dutch-based company.  The GBP/USD trades at 1.3305, after reaching a high of 1.3363. Read More...

British Pound strengthens beyond mid-1.3300s vs weak USD amid fresh Iran diplomacy hopesThe GBP/USD pair builds on Friday's modest bounce from a three-week low and gains strong follow-through positive traction at the start of a new week. This marks the second straight day of a positive move and lifts spot prices above mid-1.3300s during the Asian session amid a broadly weaker US Dollar (USD). Read More...

British Pound rises as Oil slide softens USD, Fed hike bets increaseThe Pound Sterling advances by some 0.20% on Friday as Oil prices tumble, weighing on the US Dollar, while the US-Iran conflict signals a further escalation, which market participants ignored. Despite registering daily gains, the GBP/USD is poised to finish the week with losses of nearly 0.70%. Read More...

Fed rate decision – GoldAttention this week turns to Wednesday's FOMC decision, with the Fed largely expected to leave rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% for a fifth straight meeting. However, oil's surge above $100 a barrel following renewed Middle East tensions has revived inflation concerns, complicating the policy outlook.

Investors will focus on Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's remarks for clues on whether a September rate hike remains under consideration. Although US inflation eased to 3.5% y/y in June, it remains well above the Fed's 2% target, while higher energy prices risk reigniting price pressures.

A hawkish message would likely support Treasury yields and USD, weighing on Gold as the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding metal rises. Technically, the yellow metal has recovered towards 4,100 as US-Iran tensions show signs of easing, but momentum remains subdued and the 50-day SMA continues to cap upside attempts. A hawkish Fed could shift the focus back towards the psychological 4,000 floor, while a softer tone may allow the rebound to extend towards 4,200.

BoJ policy meeting – USD/JPYThe Bank of Japan is expected to keep rates unchanged at 1.00% on Friday, following June's 25bp hike to a 31-year high. However, policymakers are likely to maintain a hawkish bias as inflation risks remain elevated amid a weak yen, higher energy costs and robust AI-driven demand.

Investors continue to debate whether the next hike could come as early as September or October, particularly if inflation proves stickier than expected or yen weakness persists. Several BoJ officials have recently argued that rates should move closer to neutral levels, although political pressure from the growth-focused Sanae Takaichi administration may limit the pace of future tightening.

Meanwhile, USDJPY surged to 163.97 last week, marking a fresh 40-year high, before paring gains. Technically, the broader uptrend remains intact, with 164.50 as the next upside target. However, a hawkish BoJ surprise or renewed intervention fears from Tokyo could trigger a correction towards 162.00.

BoE policy meeting – GBP/USDThe Bank of England is widely expected to keep rates unchanged at 3.75%, marking a fifth consecutive hold. Cooling wage growth and easing inflation have reduced the urgency for further tightening. However, policymakers remain wary that renewed Middle East tensions and higher energy prices could reignite price pressures, even after UK inflation eased to 2.6% in June.

Attention will focus on the expected 7-2 vote split, with investors looking for clues on whether policymakers are becoming more concerned about energy-driven inflation risks. Markets will also monitor any discussion around the future pace of quantitative tightening as the BoE reviews its balance-sheet reduction programme.

For GBP/USD, risks remain skewed to the downside. Fiscal uncertainty persists as investors await more details about new PM Andy Burnham's policy plans, while markets continue to price a relatively firm rate outlook despite signs of a cooling economy. Any indication that the BoE is becoming more comfortable with inflation could weigh on sterling, while a more hawkish tone may help sustain the pair's current recovery from the 1.3300 area.

The US dollar softened a bit in the early part of the Monday session, as the missiles in the Middle East have stopped, for the moment.

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EUR/USD Technical Analysis

EUR/USD trades at 1.13866, pressing the 1.1400 floor of its range below both moving averages. Source: TradingView The euro gapped higher against the US dollar and then took off as the conflict in the Middle East seems to be slowing down again. That being said, with those falling yields in America, it makes sense that the dollar lost a little bit of strength, but we’ve seen selling of the euro come back into play, which makes sense. And now it looks like we are possibly continuing this choppy and volatile negative behavior. The 1.14 level continues to be an area of interest as we are just simply bouncing around with the latest headlines.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis GBP/USD trades at 1.33125, slipping toward 1.3300 below both moving averages. Source: TradingView The British pound took off to the upside, gapped higher to kick off the session, reached the area of the 50-day EMA, and then turned around to show signs of negativity. We find ourselves sitting just above the 1.33 level again. This is an area that has been important multiple times. At this juncture, it looks like support, but if the market breaks down below there, it could lead to fresh selling. We’ll just have to wait and see. Rallies at this point continue to see selling pressure, as we have earlier this morning, based on the last week or so.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

USD/JPY trades at 163.632, extending its climb above 163 and both moving averages. Source: TradingView The US dollar has gapped lower to kick off the trading session on Monday against the Japanese yen, but turned around to show signs of strength again as despite the fact that rates are falling in America; the interest rate differential between these two currencies is still very wide, so that boosts the carry trade. We’ve broken above massive swing highs going back to the 1980s, so it’s difficult to imagine this market’s going to turn around on a dime. And ultimately, we’re in a nice 45-degree bullish trend, so by all accounts, the chart looks just as bullish now as it did a few days ago.

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Chris is a proprietary trader with more than 20 years of experience across various markets, including currencies, indices and commodities. As a senior analyst at FXEmpire since the website’s early days, he offers readers advanced market perspectives to navigate today’s financial landscape with confidence.

Editors’ Picks

The Pound to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate fell to a two-week low last week as surging energy prices and escalating tensions in the Middle East boosted demand for the safe-haven US Dollar while Sterling came under pressure.

At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading around $1.3317, down approximately 1% over the week.

Latest — Exchange Rates:

Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD): 1.335557 (+0.23%)

Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD): 1.139973 (+0.25%)

Dollar to Yen (USD/JPY): 163.59142 (-0.16%)

DAILY RECAP:

The US Dollar (USD) strengthened against most major currencies last week as tensions in the Middle East continued to escalate.

Demand for the safe-haven currency was initially restrained as global risk appetite remained surprisingly resilient through the first half of the week.

However, the US Dollar gathered momentum later in the session as investors sought defensive assets after global oil prices climbed above US$100 a barrel following Yemen’s Houthi rebels expanding the conflict from the Gulf into the Red Sea.

Toward the end of the week, US President Donald Trump also unsettled markets after announcing new "forced labour" tariffs on more than 80 countries, adding another layer of uncertainty for investors.

Meanwhile, the Pound (GBP) came under sustained pressure as rising UK government borrowing costs unsettled financial markets.

Although soaring global energy prices contributed to higher gilt yields, investors also focused on Prime Minister Andy Burnham's first wave of cost-of-living measures.

The government's tax relief plans prompted fresh questions over how the proposals would be funded while remaining within Labour's fiscal rules.

A busy run of UK economic data failed to change the broader narrative. Strong employment figures and better-than-expected retail sales offered some support, but softer inflation weakened expectations for another Bank of England (BoE) interest rate hike in the near term.

Near-Term GBP/USD Forecast: Fed and BoE Rate Decisions in the Spotlight Looking ahead, attention will centre on this week's interest rate decisions from both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England.

The Federal Reserve is expected to leave rates unchanged, but investors will closely examine policymakers' guidance for any indication that another interest rate hike could still be delivered before the end of the summer.

The latest US GDP figures later in the week may also influence the US Dollar if second-quarter growth accelerates as expected.

Meanwhile, markets also expect the Bank of England to keep interest rates on hold, leaving the focus on its guidance and whether policymakers emphasise the growing economic challenges facing the UK while maintaining a cautious tone.

Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.

The British Pound (GBP) is up 0.15% to near 1.3345 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Monday. The GBP/USD pair gains as the US Dollar faces selling pressure due to renewed hopes of a United States (US)-Iran diplomatic solution, following the pause in military aggression in the Middle East.

Over the weekend, the US military confirmed that further attacks on Iran would be unnecessary as the target list has been exhausted.

In the European trade, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.25% lower to near 101.20.

Meanwhile, US ambassador to the United Nations (UN) Mike Waltz also said in an interview with Fox News that President Donald Trump wants to give negotiations a “little bit of room”, while forces remained locked and loaded, The Guardian reported.

This week, investors will pay close attention to monetary policy announcements by both the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of England (BoE) on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively. Both central banks are expected to leave interest rates unchanged.

GBP/USD technical analysis

GBP/USD trades higher at around 1.3344, but is still close to the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is at 1.3370, indicating a neutral near-term outlook. The formation of a Volatility Contraction Pattern (VCP) also suggests that the overall trend is neutral.

The Relative Strength Index (14) near 47.00 reflects lackluster momentum rather than a decisive directional push.

On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the descending trend-line zone referenced near 1.3467, followed by the July 15 high at 1.3558. On the downside, last week's low at 1.3300 is the key support level, with June's low at 1.3140 remaining a major cushion. A breakdown below 1.3140 would expose the pair to the psychological level at 1.3000.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Economic Indicator BoE Interest Rate Decision The Bank of England (BoE) announces its interest rate decision at the end of its eight scheduled meetings per year. If the BoE is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and raises interest rates it is usually bullish for the Pound Sterling (GBP). Likewise, if the BoE adopts a dovish view on the UK economy and keeps interest rates unchanged, or cuts them, it is seen as bearish for GBP.

Read more.

Next release: Thu Jul 30, 2026 11:00

Frequency: Irregular

Consensus: 3.75%

Previous: 3.75%

Source: Bank of England

Ceasefire headlines trigger familiar Monday playbook Brent may now influence escalation risks Light calendar on Monday leaves geopolitics in control Charts suggest rallies remain opportunities to sell Donald Trump has delivered another Sunday TACO, triggering a familiar market reaction as Globex reopened for the week. Energy futures that spiked last week tumbled in early Asian trade, while equity futures jumped and the euro and British pound strengthened against the US dollar. Whether those moves extend into the European session will largely depend on the news flow from the Middle East. As this conflict has repeatedly shown, sentiment can turn very quickly.

Another Sunday TACO Almost inevitably, we're back here again early on Monday morning in Asia with a risk-on tone, sparked by another barrage of positive headlines out of the Middle East. After spending the weekend worrying about a major escalation, traders have once again been handed a de-escalation headline just before Globex reopened, amplifying the initial reaction in extremely illiquid conditions.

Zooming out to 40,000 feet, it seems Brent crude may no longer be just a barometer of geopolitical risk. Repeated moves below $70 a barrel during the conflict have been followed by renewed escalation. Conversely, the latest de-escalation arrived with Brent trading above $100 a barrel, a level that risks fuelling inflation and lifting gasoline prices at a politically awkward time for Trump ahead of November's midterm elections.

It's entirely speculative on my behalf, but both sides appear to have developed an implicit reaction function around Brent since the conflict began. Prices below $70 a barrel seem to invite renewed escalation, while moves above $100 have so far been met with efforts to de-escalate.

Europe Wins, For Now

Source: TradingView

The latest headlines have provided Europe an immediate release valve. Natural gas and Brent crude, shown on the left and right respectively above, have fallen sharply, drowning out renewed trade concerns after Trump threatened additional tariffs on Europe in response to the EU's antitrust fine against Alphabet. Whether those moves last will depend almost entirely on where the news flow heads next. 

EUR/USD: Downtrend Still Intact

Source: TradingView

Despite the pop higher on the ceasefire headlines, the EUR/USD H4 chart suggests this remains a sell-on-rallies play for now, with the string of lower highs and lower lows in place since the middle of July still intact.

The price remains trapped within a well-defined range between 1.1364 and 1.1397. Bulls have already failed twice to break above the upper end of that structure, including earlier today when EUR/USD briefly pushed through 1.1400 before retreating. That leaves a clear range to work with.

The oscillators suggest downside momentum is ebbing but has yet to trigger an outright bullish signal. RSI (14) has lifted but remains below the neutral 50 level, while MACD is on the cusp of a bullish crossover despite remaining in negative territory, placing greater emphasis on price action around the range extremes.

Should buyers finally break above 1.1397 and hold there, attention shifts to the former uptrend from the June 24 low, which comes in around 1.1415 today, followed by the July 7 swing high at 1.1436. On the downside, a break beneath 1.1364 would expose the June 24 swing low at 1.1325, with little meaningful technical support in between.

As long as the positive news flow from the Middle East continues, there may be scope for further upside. But the broader technical picture still favours selling rallies. The daily chart shows EUR/USD remains below its 50, 100 and 200-day moving averages, all of which continue to slope lower, suggesting the medium-term downtrend remains intact.

GBP/USD: Breakout Fading

Source: TradingView

GBP/USD looks much the same as EUR/USD on the H4 timeframe. The pair is attempting to break the downtrend that's been in place since the middle of July, although it's already given back a sizeable chunk of the gains seen earlier in the session.

The daily chart, shown in the right-hand pane, suggests rallies should still be treated with caution. The 50-day moving average is found at 1.3368, but it's the 100 and 200-day moving averages around 1.3400 that are of greater interest. The pair stalled beneath those levels last week, making them an important resistance zone should the current bounce extend.

On the H4 chart, support emerged around 1.3300 late last week, while 1.3360 is the first level overhead to watch, having acted as support earlier in the month. Outside of that range, 1.3263 is the next level of note on the downside, while 1.3400 and 1.3413 provide additional resistance above.

The oscillators suggest downside momentum is ebbing but has yet to trigger an outright bullish signal. RSI (14) continues to climb towards the neutral 50 level, while MACD has crossed above its signal line but remains below zero, placing greater emphasis on price action around these key technical levels.

Rabobank expects renewed pressure on Pound exchange rates as concerns over Prime Minister Andy Burnham’s spending plans unsettle the gilt market. The British Pound concluded this trading week facing a difficult combination of political uncertainty, elevated UK bond yields and doubts over how the new government intends to fund its policy agenda.

UK economists at Rabobank say the initial market response to Burnham’s cabinet and early policy announcements has been notably cautious.

Latest — Exchange Rates:

Pound to Euro (GBP/EUR): 1.171822 (+0.14%)

Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD): 1.332498 (+0.09%)

Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD): 1.137117 (-0.05%)

The UK 10-year gilt yield has moved above 5.0%, while Pound Sterling has ranked as the weakest G10 currency over the latest one-day period.

Although the appointment of an experienced Chancellor has offered some reassurance, the bank warns that uncertainty surrounding the government’s fiscal strategy could keep both gilts and the Pound under pressure.

Rabobank analysts expect EUR/GBP to rise to 0.8650 over the next three months and sees scope for GBP/USD to fall back towards 1.3200.

At current rates, those forecasts imply a weaker Pound against both the Euro and the US Dollar.

Rabobank Warns Burnham’s Honeymoon Could Be Brief Rabobank says the appointment of Healey as Chancellor is a stabilising factor because the country’s finances have been placed in the hands of an experienced politician with previous Treasury exposure and respect across Parliament.

However, the larger question is how Burnham plans to finance his agenda.

The Prime Minister has said he intends to use “flexibility” within the fiscal rules, which Rabobank says could point towards placing some infrastructure-related debt on the balance sheets of public financial institutions.

Although such borrowing might sit outside the most closely watched fiscal measures, it would still need to be absorbed by the bond market.

“The market will be wary about whether this constitutes ‘back door’ funding,” Rabobank says.

The government’s first cost-of-living measure is a reduction in VAT on household electricity bills from October.

Officials have indicated that the measure will be funded by cancelling the previous government’s digital identity programme, although reports have raised doubts over whether that scheme was fully funded in the first place.

Rabobank notes that use of greater flexibility within the fiscal rules could potentially mobilise an additional £16 billion for infrastructure projects over the remainder of the decade.

Infrastructure investment could improve productivity in parts of the UK outside London and the South East, but those benefits may take years to materialise.

Burnam, by contrast, faces a general election in less than three years.

That leaves the government under pressure to deliver visible improvements quickly, increasing the risk that spending commitments expand before the economic benefits become apparent.

“The market is now bracing itself for a list of further announcements,” Rabobank says.

“This suggests that funding issues will remain at the fore of the market’s mind and hints that Burnham’s honeymoon may be short-lived.”

Gilt Market Particularly Sensitive The latest UK borrowing figures were slightly better than expected for June, but borrowing over the first three months of the fiscal year remains above projections from the Office for Budget Responsibility.

At an early stage of the financial year, that overshoot might ordinarily attract limited attention.

Rabobank argues that the political backdrop makes investors more sensitive than usual.

Burnham is associated with the softer left of the Labour Party and has said he wants government to become less reliant on what he described as the “imperial” Treasury.

Against this backdrop, the bond market is likely to demand clear reassurance that new spending plans will remain compatible with the fiscal rules.

Rabobank also highlights structural vulnerabilities in the UK economy.

The country has a low household savings ratio and a substantial current-account deficit, increasing its dependence on overseas capital.

These characteristics can amplify market reactions when confidence deteriorates.

“The UK may not have the largest debt-to-GDP ratio in the developed world, but arguably it has one of the most sensitive debt markets,” Rabobank says.

Lower BoE Expectations Are Another Pound Risk The reduction in VAT on household electricity bills should mechanically lower inflation.

Rabobank also expects headline UK CPI inflation to ease to 2.7% year on year, offering some short-term reassurance to the gilt market.

The inflation outlook remains complicated by higher spot energy prices following the escalation in the US-Iran conflict, but Rabobank believes current Bank of England pricing is too aggressive.

Markets are pricing approximately 43 basis points of BoE tightening over the next six months.

Rabobank expects the central bank to avoid raising rates this year.

“On our view, this is overdone and a reduction in market expectations for BoE policy tightening is another headwind for the pound,” the bank says.

This is important because elevated UK interest-rate expectations have provided Sterling with some protection against fiscal and political concerns.

Were investors to remove those expected rate increases, the Pound would lose part of its yield advantage at the same time as the gilt market remains uneasy about government borrowing.

Image: Exchange Rates UK Research polling shows GBP/USD median bank forecast chart showing the live rate near 1.3325, a Q3 median near 1.32 and the longer-term forecast path GBP/USD Forecast: 1.3200 Comes Back Into View GBP/USD ended the latest session around 1.3325, recording a modest daily gain after Thursday’s 0.47% decline.

The pair has nevertheless fallen by more than two cents from the 15 July close near 1.3540 and remains well below July’s high of 1.3558.

The short-term chart shows Sterling attempting to stabilise around 1.3320 after repeated failures to sustain advances above 1.3340.

GBP/USD is trading close to the 20-period moving average at 1.3327 and session VWAP near 1.3323.

That positioning suggests the pair is currently balanced around its immediate fair-value area rather than developing a strong recovery.

The 200-period moving average near 1.3340 remains the more important overhead barrier.

A recent rebound failed close to that level, confirming the 1.3340-1.3350 region as the first substantial resistance zone.

RSI has recovered to approximately 48 from below 40, showing that downside momentum has eased.

However, the indicator remains below 50 and does not yet signal that buyers have regained control.

Initial support is located around 1.3310, followed by 1.3290.

Rabobank’s 1.3200 objective would come into clearer view following a break below these levels, while July’s low at 1.3221 represents a significant intermediate support area.

On the upside, a sustained move above 1.3340 would reduce immediate downside pressure, although GBP/USD would still need to recover through 1.3400 to suggest the broader July correction has ended.

Image: GBP/USD 15-minute chart with 1.3310 support, 1.3340 resistance and Rabobank’s 1.3200 forecast marked The median bank forecast path also points to near-term weakness before a later recovery.

The Q3 2026 median projection is close to 1.3200, broadly matching Rabobank’s three-month forecast, while the consensus path then rises towards 1.35 in early 2027 and approximately 1.38 by the end of that year.

Rabobank’s view is therefore consistent with the wider consensus in anticipating near-term pressure, although it does not rule out a longer-term recovery.

Image: EUR/GBP survey poll forecasts July 2026 EUR/GBP Forecast: Rabobank Targets 0.8650 EUR/GBP closed around 0.8534 after falling 0.14% in the latest session.

The cross has recovered from July’s low near 0.8455, but remains almost 1% lower for the month and below the July opening level near 0.8614.

The 15-minute chart shows that EUR/GBP has surrendered part of its recent rebound after failing above 0.8550.

The cross is trading close to its 20-period moving average near 0.8533, but remains below session VWAP around 0.8541 and beneath the 200-period moving average near 0.8539.

This leaves the immediate technical picture mixed.

The latest recovery from below 0.8530 shows that selling pressure has moderated, while RSI near 46 has moved above its signal line.

However, the cross remains below the neutral 50 level and has yet to overcome the main intraday resistance cluster.

Initial resistance is located around 0.8539-0.8542, followed by 0.8547 and the recent highs around 0.8550-0.8555.

A break through that area would strengthen the case for a return towards 0.8600.

Rabobank’s 0.8650 forecast lies above the current technical range and would require a more decisive deterioration in Sterling sentiment.

On the downside, support is located around 0.8530, followed by 0.8525.

A break below these levels would weaken the immediate recovery and raise the risk of a renewed move towards 0.8500.

Image: EUR/GBP 15-minute chart with 0.8530 support, 0.8550 resistance The wider bank consensus also leans towards a higher EUR/GBP rate over the coming quarters.

The median forecast stands close to 0.8700 from the third quarter of 2026 through early 2028, before easing towards 0.8600 and then 0.8450 by the end of 2028.

Rabobank’s 0.8650 target is therefore slightly below the near-term consensus median but still implies a meaningful Sterling decline from current levels.

Pound Sterling: Rabobank’s forecasts leave GBP exposed on two fronts Against the Euro, the bank expects EUR/GBP to rise towards 0.8650 as investors question the government’s fiscal plans and reassess the likelihood of Bank of England tightening.

Against the Dollar, it sees GBP/USD falling towards 1.3200 as political uncertainty, gilt-market sensitivity and lower UK rate expectations weigh on the Pound.

The technical charts show that neither move has yet been fully confirmed.

GBP/USD is attempting to stabilise around 1.3320, while EUR/GBP remains below resistance around 0.8550.

However, the fundamental risks identified by Rabobank remain unresolved.

A reduction in expected BoE tightening would remove an important source of Sterling support, while further spending announcements without a convincing funding plan could renew pressure on gilts.

The base case is therefore for Pound Sterling to remain vulnerable, with a GBP/USD break below 1.3290 strengthening the path towards 1.3200 and an EUR/GBP move above 0.8550 opening the way towards Rabobank’s 0.8650 target.

Key Points:EUR/USD gained some ground as traders reacted to PMI reports. GBP/USD moved higher, supported by stronger-than-expected UK Retail Sales. USD/JPY continued its attempts to settle above the resistance level at 163.50 - 164.00.

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U.S. Dollar Moves Lower As Oil Pulls Back

DXY 240726 4h Chart U.S. Dollar Index is losing ground as traders focus on the pullback in the oil markets. WTI oil declined towards the $88.00 level as traders hoped that U.S. and Iran will get back to negotiations. Falling oil prices reduced demand for safe-haven assets, which was bearish for the American currency.

Today, traders also focused on PMI reports. Manufacturing PMI declined from 53.9 in June to 53.8 in July, compared to analyst forecast of 54.3. Services PMI improved from 51.2 to 53.6, compared to analyst consensus of 51.5. Numbers above 50 show expansion.

EUR/USD Gains Gound As Euro Area PMI Reports Exceed Estimates

EUR/USD 240726 4h Chart EUR/USD attempts to rebound as traders focus on better-than-expected PMI data from the EU. Euro Area Manufacturing PMI increased from 51.4 in June to 52.0 in July, compared to analyst forecast of 51.5. Euro Area Services PMI improved from 49.4 to 51.6, compared to analyst consensus of 49.8.

The nearest support level for EUR/USD is located in the 1.1350 – 1.1365 range. In case EUR/USD manages to settle below the 1.1350 level, it will head towards the next support level at 1.1270 – 1.1285.

GBP/USD Gains Ground As UK Retail Sales Beat Estimates GBP/USD 240726 4h Chart GBP/USD is moving higher as UK Manufacturing PMI and UK Services PMI exceeded analyst estimates. Falling oil prices provided additional support to the British pound.  Better-than-expected Retail Sales report served as an additional positive catalyst for GBP/USD. The report indicated that Retail Sales increased by +1% month-over-month in June.

Currently, GBP/USD is trying to settle back above the resistance level at 1.3335 – 1.3350. In case GBP/USD manages to settle above the 1.3335 level, it will head towards the 50 MA at 1.3414. A move above the 50 MA will open the way to the test of the resistance level at 1.3450 – 1.3465. RSI is in the moderate territory, so there is plenty of room to gain momentum in case the right catalysts emerge.

USD/CAD Is Mostly Flat As Traders Focus On Commodity Markets USD/CAD 240726 4h Chart USD/CAD is mostly flat despite the rebound in precious metals markets. Other commodity-related currencies are moving higher in today’s trading session.

In case USD/CAD pulls back below the 50 MA at 1.4061, it will head towards the support level at 1.4010 – 1.4025.

On the upside, USD/CAD needs to settle above the resistance level at 1.4125 – 1.4140 to have a chance to gain upside momentum in the near term. A move above the 1.4140 level will push USD/CAD towards the next resistance level at 1.4235 – 1.4250.

USD/JPY Tests Resistance At 163.50 – 164.00 USD/JPY 240726 4h Chart USD/JPY remains stuck near the 164.00 level as traders react to inflation data from Japan. Inflation Rate increased from 1.5% in May to 1.7% in June, in line with analyst consensus. Core inflation Rate increased from 1.4% to 1.6%. The report has also met analyst estimates.

From the technical point of view, USD/JPY attempts to settle above the resistance level at 163.50 – 164.00. In case USD/JPY manages to settle above the 164.00 level, it will head towards the psychologically important 165.00 level. These levels have not been tested since 1986. RSI is in the overbought territory, but there is some room to gain additional momentum in the near term.

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Vladimir is an independent trader, with over 18 years of experience in the financial markets. His expertise spans a wide range of instruments like stocks, futures, forex, indices, and commodities, forecasting both long-term and short-term market movements.

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HomeTechnical AnalysisIntraday Analysis 24.07.2026 JPY remains under pressure

USDJPY hits multi-month high

The Japanese yen remains pressured after the pair broke to another fresh high. The bullish bias remains intact even though the pair has hit some resistance.

The bullish mood means that pullbacks have been opportunities for the buy side to stake in. The greenback is testing the next target at 163.30. Another breakout would cement the dollar’s supremacy and pave the way for a rally towards 164.00. On the downside, 162.60 is the first support, with 162.00 a critical bottom.

GBPUSD finds support

Cable was given a boost after the recent downward spiral lifted price action, after finding some support.

A fall below 1.3400 was a sign of profit-taking after bulls struggled to push back, putting a dent in the short-term mood. However, Sterling still has an edge from the intraday chart perspective. A recent bounce to prevent a test at 1.3320 has seen buyers re-enter the market with a slight uptick in bids. The brief support-turned-resistance of 1.3400 is the level to lift before cable can create an uptrend towards 1.3550. UK 100 falls from its peak

The FTSE is left licking its wounds after hitting a heavy rejection to prevent another move higher.

A push towards the previous swing high of 10760 put the bulls on the attack, before retracing. The latest downtick could continue towards 10625, should bears attract more sellers. 10550 is the next level lower should the sell-off continue.
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The Pound to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate traded in a narrow range on Thursday as investors continued to assess Prime Minister Andy Burnham's first week in office while awaiting fresh economic data.

At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading around $1.3362, down marginally on the day.

Latest — Exchange Rates:

Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD): 1.3319 (-0.42%)

Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD): 1.137743 (-0.30%)

Dollar to Yen (USD/JPY): 163.85814 (+0.47%)

DAILY RECAP:

The Pound (GBP) traded with modest losses on Thursday as markets continued to assess Andy Burnham’s first week as Prime Minister.

Sterling had rallied ahead of Burnham’s arrival in Downing Street as investors unwound the political risk premium previously priced into the currency.

However, the Pound edged lower this week amid lingering concerns over how the government's new spending commitments and tax cuts will be financed.

Losses in Sterling were somewhat limited by hopes that the proposed measures could support economic growth.

Plans including a 20% cut in business rates for pubs, clubs and music venues in England, alongside lower VAT on household energy bills, helped temper some fiscal concerns, although GBP investors remained cautious.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) lacked clear direction as a quiet US economic calendar and mixed market sentiment left the safe-haven currency rangebound.

While global markets remain concerned about the escalating conflict in the Middle East, broader risk appetite has proved surprisingly resilient despite the worsening geopolitical backdrop.

Some investors continued to hope that diplomatic efforts could eventually produce a peace agreement, although optimism appeared to be fading.

Near-Term GBP/USD Forecast: PMI Surveys in the Spotlight Looking ahead, the UK's June retail sales figures will be the first major release on Friday.

Economists expect sales to have fallen by 0.3%, which could place the Pound under pressure.

Attention will then turn to the UK's latest PMI surveys, with the services index expected to be the key focus for Sterling investors. Any improvement in business activity during July could help support the Pound.

Meanwhile, the US S&P Global PMI surveys will be released later in the day. While typically less influential than the ISM reports, stronger-than-expected readings could still provide the US Dollar with additional support.

Key Points:EUR/USD pulled back below the 1.1400 level as traders reacted to ECB Interest Rate Decision. GBP/USD moved lower as traders focused on the strong rally in the oil markets. USD/JPY tested multi-decade higher amid rising Treasury yields.

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U.S. Dollar Moves Higher Amid Rising Demand For Safe-Haven Assets

DXY 230726 4h Chart U.S. Dollar Index gains ground as traders focus on the strong rally in the oil markets and react to the better-than-expected Initial Jobless Claims report.

The report indicated that 187,000 Americans filed for unemployment benefits in a week, compared to analyst forecast of 212,000.

Oil prices gained 6.5% as Houthis attacked vessels linked to Saudi Arabia. Brent oil climbed above the psychologically important $100 level. As a result, demand for safe-haven assets increased, which was bullish for the U.S. dollar.

U.S. Dollar Index climbed above the resistance at 101.15 – 101.30 and is trying to settle above the 101.50 level. In case this attempt is successful, U.S. Dollar Index will move towards the resistance level at 101.80 – 101.95.

EUR/USD Retreats As ECB Leaves Rates Unchanged EUR/USD 230726 4h Chart EUR/USD is losing ground as traders react to ECB Interest Rate Decision. The European Central Bank left the interest rate unchanged at 2.4%, in line with analyst estimates.

Comments from ECB President Christine Lagarde showed that ECB was ready to raise rates in September due to high oil prices.

Currently, EUR/USD is trying to settle below the support level at 1.1350 – 1.1365. In case this attempt is successful, EUR/USD will head towards the next support level at 1.1270 – 1.1285.

GBP/USD Tests New Lows As Oil Prices Rally GBP/USD 230726 4h Chart GBP/USD is under pressure as traders focus on the potential impact of high oil prices. Demand for risk assets declined, which was bearish for the British pound.

From the technical point of view, GBP/USD moved below the support level at 1.3335 – 1.3350 and is trying to settle below the 1.3300 level. If GBP/USD manages to settle below 1.3300, it will head towards the support at 1.3250 – 1.3265. RSI has just moved into oversold territory, but there is enough room to gain additional momentum in the near term.

USD/CAD 230726 4h Chart USD/CAD is mostly flat as traders react to developments in commodity markets. Precious metals markets suffered a sell-off while oil markets soared. Other commodity-related currencies pulled back in today’s trading session.

Today, traders also focused on the Retail Sales report from Canada. The report showed that Retail Sales increased by +0.4% month-over-month in June, in line with analyst estimates.

If USD/CAD manages to settle back above the 1.4100 level, it will head towards the nearest resistance level, which is located in the 1.4125 – 1.4140 range. A move above the 1.4140 level will open the way to the test of the resistance at 1.4235 – 1.4250.

USD/JPY Tests Multi-Decade Highs USD/JPY 230726 4h Chart USD/JPY tests new highs as traders focus on rising Treasury yields. The yield of 2-year Treasuries climbed towards the 4.35% level, while the yield of 10-year Treasuries settled near 4.70%. Rising oil prices serve as a major negative catalyst for the Japanese yen as Japan’s economy is dependent on energy imports.

Currently, USD/JPY is trying to settle above the 164.00 level. In case USD/JPY manages to settle above 164.00, it will head towards the 165.00 level. It should be noted that RSI is in the overbought territory, so the risks of a pullback are rising.

If you’d like to know more about how to trade forex, please visit our educational area.

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Vladimir is an independent trader, with over 18 years of experience in the financial markets. His expertise spans a wide range of instruments like stocks, futures, forex, indices, and commodities, forecasting both long-term and short-term market movements.

Editors’ Picks

Orbex Group Limited is the holding company of Orbex Global Limited, Orbex Limited is an affiliate with Orbex Global Limited. Orbex Global Limited is authorized and regulated by Mauritius Financial Services Commission “FSC” (View License). Orbex.com is owned by Orbex Group Limited and is operated by Orbex Global Limited with registered address: Ground Floor, The Catalyst, Silicon Avenue, 40 Cybercity, 72201 Ebène, Republic of Mauritius

Risk Warning: Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss of some or all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. Orbex Global does not offer its services to residents of certain jurisdictions such as Mauritius, USA, and North Korea.