The GBP/USD pair trades in negative territory around 1.3545 during the early European trading hours on Tuesday. Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish remarks at the Jackson Hole symposium underpin the US dollar (USD) against the British Pound (GBP).
Warsh said on Friday during his first Jackson Hole speech that with inflation “running above our 2 percent target, the Fed’s predominant focus right now should be ’that underlying inflation is moving to our objective, clearly, and at sufficient speed … otherwise, we have work to do.”
Expectations of a September Fed rate hike rose to 65.4% from below 40%, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Economists said the key determinant could be what the next round of inflation data reveals.
BoE tightening expectations build as markets eye UK budgetStrategists at Scotiabank highlight that market pricing has turned more constructive on BoE tightening prospects, with investors currently assigning “a ~60% chance of a 25bpt at the next BoE meeting on September 16” and “a cumulative 36bpts of tightening by year-end.” They add that, in terms of sentiment, “the October 28 budget” will be crucial, noting it “will remain a key focus for markets over the next coupld of months” as investors assess the UK’s fiscal stance alongside the evolving policy outlook.
Warsh flags unfinished inflation fight, keeps Dollar bulls alertFed Chair Warsh delivered a notably hawkish-leaning message, with a 7.4/10 FXS Speechtracker score standing above the 6.5/10 historical average and underscoring elevated concern on price stability. The insistence that the Fed must be “confident underlying inflation is moving to objective, or we have work to do,” combined with the view that financial conditions are not restrictive and credit markets show few signs of policy restraint, points to a bias toward further tightening or at least a higher-for-longer stance. Warsh’s emphasis that recent better inflation prints do not yet signal a meaningful change in underlying trends, alongside a firm commitment to the 2% PCE target, reinforces a tone that is supportive for the Dollar and broadly negative for risk-sensitive assets.
The FXS Fed Sentiment Index was unchanged, moving 0.00 points to a still-elevated level of 129.70, which keeps the policy narrative firmly in hawkish territory despite the lack of incremental shift. The combination of a stronger-than-baseline FXS Speechtracker score and a high FXS Fed Sentiment Index level suggests markets will continue to price persistent Fed vigilance on inflation, with implications for Dollar strength and higher front-end yields.
Technical Analysis: GBP/USD retains a bullish vibe above the 100-day SMAIn the daily chart, GBP/USD sits above both the 100-day moving average (MA) and the lower Bollinger Band, keeping the near-term bias mildly bullish as price holds within the upper half of the recent volatility envelope. The Relative Strength Index (14) reading around 52 suggests neutral-to-positive momentum, hinting that buyers retain a slight advantage but lack strong conviction.
On the topside, initial resistance is located at the Bollinger middle band around 1.3550, followed by the upper Bollinger Band at 1.3668. A sustained break would open the way for 1.3700, representing the February 9 high and psychological level.
On the downside, first support is seen at the August 28 low of 1.3526. The next contention level is located at the 100-day MA near 1.3445, with the lower Bollinger Band at 1.3432 reinforcing this demand area; a daily close below this zone would weaken the current constructive tone and expose deeper losses within the broader range.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Pound Sterling FAQs The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
The Pound Sterling advances during the North American session, up a modest 0.09%, as the Greenback edges lower despite last Friday’s hawkish remarks from Fed Chair Warsh, ahead of a packed week of economic data from the United States (US). The GBP/USD trades at 1.3549. Read More...
GBP/USD Price Forecast: Finds ground slightly below 20-day EMAThe British Pound (GBP) is marginally higher at around 1.3545 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Monday. The GBP/USD pair rebounds as the US Dollar corrects after a strong upside move on Friday. Read More...
British Pound holds losses amid geopolitical tensions, Fed tightening hopesThe British Pound (GBP) edges up on Monday but remains close to two-week lows against the US Dollar (USD). Risk aversion amid fresh hostilities between the US and Iran and rising bets that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) might finally hike rates in September are keeping the Greenback's dips subdued at the start of the week. Read More...
GBP/USD drops to 1.3542, breaking below the 1.3550 level and both EMAs, after declining steadily from the 1.3680 area. Source: TradingView. The British pound, I think, is probably going to be somewhat range-bound, mainly because the British pound, of course, has a higher interest rate attached to it. So, it is a little insulated from US dollar strength, and I think most of the reaction was more about the US dollar than anything else.
I wouldn’t read too much into British pound weakness, because at this point in time, even if I want to buy the US dollar, I am going to short other currencies, weaker currencies.
The British pound for me is what I want to buy if the US dollar starts to roll over. Right now, it looks pretty weak, so while shorting the pound could be possible in this general vicinity, the reality is we will probably get more mileage out of other currencies.
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The British Pound (GBP) is marginally higher at around 1.3545 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Monday. The GBP/USD pair rebounds as the US Dollar corrects after a strong upside move on Friday.
As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.15% lower to near 99.53. The US Dollar gained significantly on Friday, following a speech from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh at the Jackson Hole Symposium, where he warned of upside inflation risks. Read more...
British Pound holds losses amid geopolitical tensions, Fed tightening hopesThe British Pound (GBP) edges up on Monday but remains close to two-week lows against the US Dollar (USD). Risk aversion amid fresh hostilities between the US and Iran and rising bets that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) might finally hike rates in September are keeping the Greenback's dips subdued at the start of the week.
Investors' appetite for risk remains frail on Monday, following reports that the US launched the first attack on Iran in about a month, targeting missile launchers on Larak Island, where the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) were allegedly preparing rockets to place sea mines in the Strait of Hormuz. Read more...
British Pound bounces off over one-week low vs soft USD; upside potential seems limitedThe GBP/USD pair edges higher at the start of a new week, reversing a part of Friday's heavy losses to over a one-week trough. Spot prices, however, lack bullish conviction and trade below mid-1.3500s during the Asian session, warranting caution before confirming that the recent pullback from the highest level since February, touched earlier this month, has run its course.
The US Dollar (USD) pauses after Friday's strong move up to a nearly two-week high amid month-end rebalancing and acts as a tailwind for the GBP/USD pair. The British Pound (GBP), on the other hand, draws support from UK Chancellor John Healey's emphasis on maintaining fiscal discipline as the top priority for Prime Minister Andy Burnham’s government ahead of the Autumn Budget on October 28. Read more...
Pound-Dollar could rebound if US payrolls show further labour market weakness, although resilient ISM data may keep Fed rate hike expectations alive.
The Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate faced notable selling pressure last week amid fresh bets the Federal Reserve will deliver an interest rate hike this month.
At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at around $1.3661. Down around 0.7% from the start of last week’s session.
Latest — Exchange Rates:
Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD): 1.3534 (-0.46%)
Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD): 1.158209 (-0.61%)
Dollar to Yen (USD/JPY): 160.10118 (+0.50%)
DAILY RECAP:
The US Dollar (USD) wavered at the start of last week, as lingering bond and inflation jitters offset Iran sanction uncertainty.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent outlined new US economic sanctions on Iran that would also target countries still trading with Tehran, raising concern of a fresh deterioration in relations between the US and China.
The US Dollar then began to strengthen in mid-week trade as the latest core PCE price index showed inflation remains above the Federal Reserve's target, underpinning bets for a rate hike later in the year.
The second half of the week was then dominated by the Fed's annual Jackson Hole symposium, with the US Dollar strengthening after hawkish signals from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh revived bets the US central bank may hike interest rates in September.
The Pound (GBP) initially held its ground last week, drawing modest support from research suggesting Britain's productivity trajectory is recovering much faster than official data indicates.
That initial resilience soon fizzled out, however. With domestic economic indicators completely dried up, Sterling was left adrift and exposed to shifting momentum across broader currency markets.
Compounding the pressure was confirmation that the UK's energy price cap will climb to a three-year high in October and concerns about how this may undermine consumer spending through the remainder of the year.
Near-Term GBP/USD Forecast: Weak Payrolls to Sink the 'Greenback'?
Turning to this week's session, there are a few high-impact US economic indicators that are set to influence the Pound to US Dollar exchange rate.
The primary focus will be on the latest non-farm payroll print, which could apply significant pressure to the 'Greenback' in the latter half of the week if there is further sign that the US labour market is cooling.
Also of note to USD investors will be the latest ISM manufacturing and services PMIs, which may be more supportive of the US Dollar if they point to continued resilience in the US private sector last month.
Back in the UK, the macroeconomic schedule remains exceptionally light. Aside from the finalised August services PMI, Sterling will have few domestic catalysts to lean on, leaving its trajectory largely at the mercy of broader market sentiment.
Exchange Rates UK Research
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United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann report that GBP/USD fell sharply to 1.3527 and closed at 1.3540, contradicting expectations for range trading. Intraday, they see limited further losses within 1.3520–1.3570 due to oversold conditions. Over the coming weeks, risk stays skewed lower toward 1.3480 while the pair remains capped below 1.3600.
Pound under pressure near supports"24-HOUR VIEW: Last Thursday, GBP fell to a low of 1.3571 before recovering to close little changed at 1.3594 (-0.03%). When GBP was at 1.3595 on Friday, we highlighted that “oversold conditions, combined with slowing momentum, suggest that instead of continuing to decline today, GBP is more likely to trade in a range of 1.3570/1.3620.” We were incorrect. Instead of trading in a range, GBP fell sharply to a low of 1.3527 before settling 0.40% lower at 1.3540. Conditions remain deeply oversold, and further sustained decline appears unlikely. Today, GBP may edge lower, but any decline should remain within a range of 1.3520/1.3570."
"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: We turned slightly negative on GBP last Friday (28 Aug, spot at 1.3595), indicating that “there has been a slight increase in downward momentum, and GBP could edge lower.” However, we highlighted that “based on the prevailing momentum, any decline could be contained within a 1.3550/1.3645 range.” We did not anticipate downward momentum to increase so quickly, as GBP plunged to a low of 1.3527. The risk remains on the downside, and the level to watch is 1.3480. Overall, GBP is likely to remain under pressure as long as it holds below 1.3600 (‘strong resistance’ level). "
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
The week in one sentence: speculative positioning shifted more constructively in the week to August 25. CAD short covering led the move, followed by a broad reduction in EUR shorts and renewed Gold buying. GBP and VIX positioning also improved, while JPY positioning deteriorated and WTI flows diverged from weaker prices.
The Canadian Dollar's (CAD) non-commercial net shorts shrank by over 36.5K contracts to about 121.5K contracts, marking the biggest weekly improvement since mid-December. In contrast, USD/CAD traded with respectable losses, with modest CAD rising as positioning improved. Furthermore, the net positioning increased to the 21st percentile.
EUR: Shorts retreat sharplySpeculative net shorts in the Euro (EUR) shrank by around 22.7K contracts to more than 36.3K contracts, the strongest weekly improvement since mid-April. EUR/USD advanced markedly, even surpassing the 1.1700 barrier for the first time since early May, confirming the more constructive flow, although net positioning remains near the 10th percentile of its five-year range.
JPY, AUD and commodities divergeSpeculators added nearly 10.4K contracts to their net short positioning of the Japanese Yen (JPY), even as JPY gathered extra pace and prompted USD/JPY to trade with modest losses. The Australian Dollar (AUD) net shorts widened by just 296 contracts, despite a solid performance from AUD/USD, which finally exceeded the 0.7100 barrier. WTI net longs increased by almost 1.4K contracts amid a decent drop in the price of the barrel. Coffee (KC1) speculative positioning increased marginally by 107 contracts alongside a humble price gain.
GBP and VIX: Confirmation strengthensNet positioning in the British Pound (GBP) improved by just over 10K contracts, while GBP/USD picked up strong upside traction well north of 1.3600 the figure. Speculators trimmed their VIX net shorts by roughly 11.3K contracts, mainly because the reduction of gross shorts more than offset the decline in gross longs; the aka “panic index” traded with a positive footing although meeting resistance around the 16.00 zone, indicating that price and positioning delivered a second confirmation signal.
Gold: Buying acceleratesGold net longs went up by more than 21.1K contracts to just over 243.3K contracts, the biggest weekly rise since June 2. The precious metal navigated with firm gains over the reporting week, confirming the stronger flow and lifting exposure to the 99th percentile of its five-year range.
Positioning Map: Gold reaches an extremeGold exposure sits near the 99th percentile, the clearest crowded long in the report. AUD exposure is also elevated near the 81st percentile. At the other end, EUR net positioning remains near the 10th percentile and WTI near the 13th, despite this week's modest increase in Oil longs.
The Pound-Dollar rate has fallen back to 1.3534 after Jackson Hole, but UBS still sees Sterling at 1.40 by December and 1.41 through much of 2027. The Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate ended Friday at 1.3534, down 0.46% after Kevin Warsh revived expectations for another Federal Reserve rate increase.
Latest — Exchange Rates:
Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD): 1.3534 (-0.46%)
Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD): 1.158209 (-0.61%)
Dollar to Yen (USD/JPY): 160.10118 (+0.50%)
That leaves Cable well below its August high at 1.3675, but UBS has made no retreat from its bullish medium-term Sterling path.
Its updated forecast table reads: “GBP/USD: 1.40 Dec 2026, 1.41 Mar 2027, 1.41 Jun 2027, 1.41 Sep 2027.”
The rationale was set out more fully by UBS strategists Constantin Bolz and Dominic Schnider earlier this month.
“UK politics have shifted from a headwind to a potential tailwind,” they said, while “[Pound] Sterling remains relatively under-owned.”
That under-ownership matters if investors return after Friday's Dollar-driven correction.
UBS has also argued that “long-dollar positioning remains vulnerable to a reversal”, creating scope for “existing long-dollar positions [to] be unwound” if Fed expectations soften again.
Friday went the other way.
Warsh pushed the implied probability of a September Fed hike from around 35% before his speech to 57.5%, while Sterling suffered its first weekly decline against the Dollar in more than a month.
We previously examined UBS's increasingly positive Sterling view before the Jackson Hole reversal.
The forecast now has a cleaner test: holding around 1.35 would leave the 1.40 year-end scenario plausible, while renewed Fed tightening pressure would make the first hurdle, around 1.38, considerably harder to clear.
Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.
GBP/USD is holding at 1.3627 on Tuesday. In the final full week of August, the pair remains near its highest level since mid-February. Sterling is being supported by dollar weakness following the US Treasury’s unexpected decision to at least double its purchases of long-term government bonds.
Investors are also awaiting details of new sanctions against Iran. The highlight of the week will be Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech at Jackson Hole on Friday, which could shape expectations for the future trajectory of US interest rates.
In the UK, money markets continue to price in one Bank of England rate hike before year-end and a further 25-basis-point move by early 2027. July inflation accelerated to 2.9% – the highest since March – while core inflation came in above expectations at 2.6%.
Further support for the pound is coming from strong domestic data: PMIs point to a pick-up in business activity, while consumer confidence climbed to a two-year high in August. At the same time, high inflation remains the key risk, potentially fuelled by a protracted conflict with Iran and elevated energy prices.
Technical analysis
On the H4 GBP/USD chart, the market has nearly reached the local upside target at 1.3672 and is forming a narrow consolidation range below this level, currently extending between 1.3619 and 1.3650. A new compact consolidation range is expected to form below 1.3672. A downside breakout would open the way for a move lower towards 1.3550. The MACD indicator supports this scenario, with its signal line above zero and beginning to turn downwards.
On the H1 chart, the market has formed a compact consolidation range around the 1.3640 level, currently extending between 1.3618 and 1.3650. A move lower towards 1.3600 is expected, and a break below this level would open the way for a further decline to 1.3550. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this scenario, with its signal line below 50 and trending downward towards 20, indicating short-term downside pressure.
ConclusionGBP/USD remains near multi-month highs, supported by dollar weakness following the US Treasury’s bond buyback announcement and strong UK economic data. Markets are now focused on upcoming catalysts, including details of new sanctions against Iran and Fed Chair Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech on Friday, which could shape expectations for US interest rates. In the UK, money markets continue to price in further BoE tightening, supported by accelerating inflation and improving business activity and consumer confidence data. However, high inflation and geopolitical risks remain key concerns. Technically, the pair may see a short-term pullback towards 1.3600, with a break below this level opening the way towards 1.3550. The near-term direction will depend on central bank signals and geopolitical developments.
GBP/USD is holding at 1.3627 on Tuesday. In the final full week of August, the pair remains near its highest level since mid-February. Sterling is being supported by dollar weakness following the US Treasury’s unexpected decision to at least double its purchases of long-term government bonds.
Investors are also awaiting details of new sanctions against Iran. The highlight of the week will be Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech at Jackson Hole on Friday, which could shape expectations for the future trajectory of US interest rates.
In the UK, money markets continue to price in one Bank of England rate hike before year-end and a further 25-basis-point move by early 2027. July inflation accelerated to 2.9% – the highest since March – while core inflation came in above expectations at 2.6%.
Further support for the pound is coming from strong domestic data: PMIs point to a pick-up in business activity, while consumer confidence climbed to a two-year high in August. At the same time, high inflation remains the key risk, potentially fuelled by a protracted conflict with Iran and elevated energy prices.
Technical Analysis
On the H4 GBP/USD chart, the market has nearly reached the local upside target at 1.3672 and is forming a narrow consolidation range below this level, currently extending between 1.3619 and 1.3650. A new compact consolidation range is expected to form below 1.3672. A downside breakout would open the way for a move lower towards 1.3550. The MACD indicator supports this scenario, with its signal line above zero and beginning to turn downwards.
On the H1 chart, the market has formed a compact consolidation range around the 1.3640 level, currently extending between 1.3618 and 1.3650. A move lower towards 1.3600 is expected, and a break below this level would open the way for a further decline to 1.3550. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this scenario, with its signal line below 50 and trending downward towards 20, indicating short-term downside pressure.
Conclusion GBP/USD remains near multi-month highs, supported by dollar weakness following the US Treasury’s bond buyback announcement and strong UK economic data. Markets are now focused on upcoming catalysts, including details of new sanctions against Iran and Fed Chair Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech on Friday, which could shape expectations for US interest rates. In the UK, money markets continue to price in further BoE tightening, supported by accelerating inflation and improving business activity and consumer confidence data. However, high inflation and geopolitical risks remain key concerns. Technically, the pair may see a short-term pullback towards 1.3600, with a break below this level opening the way towards 1.3550. The near-term direction will depend on central bank signals and geopolitical developments.
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United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann describe GBP/USD price action as range-bound intraday between 1.3615 and 1.3660, with momentum indicators neutral. However, their 1–3 week view remains positive after turning bullish last week, looking for a move toward 1.3700 while keeping strong support at 1.3585. A break below that level would negate the upside scenario.
Range-bound now but bullish bias"24-HOUR VIEW: After GBP closed little changed at 1.3644 (+0.09%) last Friday, we highlighted yesterday that “the price movements still appear to be part of a range-trading phase.” We expected GBP “to trade between 1.3620 and 1.3665.” Our view was not wrong, as GBP traded between 1.3621 and 1.3656 before closing at 1.3630 (-0.10%). There has been no shift in either downward or upward momentum, and GBP is likely to continue to trade in a range, probably between 1.3615 and 1.3660."
"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: We turned positive on GBP last Monday (17 Aug, spot at 1.3540). On Friday (21 Aug, spot at 1.3640), we indicated that GBP “could continue to rise to 1.3700.” There is no change in our view. On the downside, if GBP breaks below 1.3585 (no change in ‘strong support level), it will mean that 1.3700 is out of reach."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Dollar Index Price Chart – Source: Tradingview Currently, the U.S. Dollar Index is at $99.02, up slightly from $98.55 on the 2-hour chart. While the rebound gives some short-term momentum to the DXY, it still sits below both the 100-EMA at $99.22 and the 50-EMA at $99.02, with an overall downtrend remaining intact. Until this changes, the structure will continue to be bearish.
RSI also shows the short term rebound and is currently at 55, which shows a recovery from oversold conditions and a move back above the neutral 50 level. There is resistance at $99.13 and $99.27, and even further at $99.38 and $99.71. If buying pressure pushes the price above these, $100.03 and $100.42 will be the next targets. In the event downward pressure remains at $98.99, $98.82, and $98.55, there is still downside.
In my opinion, the DXY is still under pressure unless a break of the $99.38 level is made. A break of this resistance zone could be the catalyst to push to $98.82, $98.55. In the event an upward break is made from the $99.13 – $99.38 resistance zone, it would be very bullish.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis: Pound Consolidates Above $1.3618 With $1.3656 Resistance in Focus
The British Pound (GBP) trades marginally higher against the US Dollar (USD) at around 1.3640 during the European trading session on Tuesday, even as the US Dollar Index (DXY) edges up, indicating strength in the British currency.
At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades slightly higher to near 99.10.
The Pound Sterling gains despite market experts seeing the Bank of England (BoE) holding interest rates steady in the near term.
UK inflation surprise limited as BoE pricing eases
Analysts at Danske Bank note that UK inflation data for July were broadly in line with expectations, with headline CPI rising to "2.9% y/y (cons: 2.9%, prior: 2.6%), mainly driven by the 13% increase in the Ofgem energy price cap from 1 July." They highlight that "core inflation was slightly higher than expected at 2.6% y/y (cons: 2.5%, prior: 2.6%)," while "services eased in line with expectations to 3.4% y/y (cons: 3.4%, prior: 3.6%)." According to Danske, the combination of this inflation print and "yesterday's weak labour market data" has "taken the top off BoE pricing for the remainder of the year."
Meanwhile, the US Dollar trades higher against its other peers as investors fear that fresh United States (US) sanctions on Iran could lift oil prices higher and eventually US Treasury Yields.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis
GBP/USD trades at 1.3640, maintaining a bullish near-term bias, with price holding above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.3531, which reinforces an underlying supportive structure after the recent advance.
The Relative Strength Index (14) near 69 suggests strong upside momentum, though it is flirting with overbought territory, hinting that gains could become more gradual if buyers pause ahead of fresh catalysts.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 20-day EMA around 1.3530, where a break would expose a deeper correction toward prior lows not visible in the current indicator set. As long as GBP/USD remains above this moving average, the broader constructive tone is likely to persist, with any shallow pullbacks viewed as corrective within the ongoing uptrend.
Strategists at Scotiabank describe the current technical backdrop for GBP/USD as "solidly bullish," noting that after a period of range trading and "two tests of 1.3150 (April and June)," the pair now appears better poised to advance. They argue that "a sustained push above 1.3650/60 implies potential for an extension towards the 1.41 zone over the balance of the year," underscoring their view that the underlying trend dynamics continue to favour further Pound appreciation.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Pound Sterling FAQs The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
GBP/USD started a steady increase and climbed above 1.3650. A bullish trend line is forming with support near 1.3580 on the 4-hour chart. Gold surged and broke the $4,620 resistance zone. Bitcoin remained elevated, and the bulls could aim for a close above $80,000. GBP/USD Technical Analysis The British Pound found support near 1.3450 against the US Dollar. GBP/USD started another increase above the 1.3580 resistance zone.
Looking at the 4-hour chart, the pair settled above 1.3600, the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour), and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour). The pair climbed above 1.3650 and traded as high as 1.3675 on TitanFX before it started a consolidation phase.
On the downside, an immediate support could be near 1.3600 and the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.3524 swing low to the 1.3675 high.
The first major support could be near 1.3580. There is also a bullish trend line forming with support at 1.3580. The next major support could be near 1.3525 and the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour).
The main support might be 1.3450 and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour). A downside break and close below 1.3450 might send the pair toward 1.3320. Any more losses could open the door for a test of 1.3250.
On the upside, the pair could face resistance near the 1.3675 level. The next major resistance might be 1.3720. A close above 1.3720 could start another steady increase. In the stated case, the bulls could aim for a move to 1.3800. Any further gains might open the door for a test of 1.3865.
Looking at Gold, the bulls seem to be back, and they might aim for a move above the $4,720 resistance level.
Upcoming Key Economic Events:
US Housing Price Index for June 2026 (MoM) – Forecast +0.2%, versus +0.3% previous. S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices for June 2026 (YoY) – Forecast +1.7%, versus +1.6% previous. Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for August 2026 – Forecast 7.0, versus 5.0 previous.
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Key Points:EUR/USD pulled back amid profit-taking. USD/CAD gained strong upside momentum as demand for commodity-related currencies declined.USD/JPY continued its attempts to settle back above the 159.00 level.
EUR/USD
-0.15%
EUR/USD ForecastGBP/USD
-0.14%
GBP/USD ForecastUSD/CAD
+0.41%
USD/CAD ForecastUSD/JPY
+0.12%
USD/JPY Forecast
U.S. Dollar Gains Ground At The Start Of The Week
DXY 240826 4h Chart U.S. Dollar Index is moving higher as traders take some profits off the table after the strong pullback.
Today, traders had a chance to take a look at the Chicago Fed National Activity Index report. The report indicated that Chicago Fed National Activity declined from +0.06 in June to -0.08 in July, compared to analyst forecast of +0.1. The report did not have a material impact on market dynamics.
Currently, U.S. Dollar Index attempts to settle above the 99.00 level. In case this attempt is successful, U.S. Dollar Index will move towards the resistance level at 99.25 – 99.40. On the support side, a successful test of the support level at 98.60 – 98.75 will open the way to the test of the next support at 97.85 – 98.00.
EUR/USD Pulls Back As Traders Take Profits Near Multi-Month Highs EUR/USD 240826 4h Chart EUR/USD moved away from recent highs as traders waited for additional catalysts.
EUR/USD has recently made several attempts to settle above the resistance level at 1.1685 – 1.1700 but these attempts yieded no results. In case EUR/USD manages to settle above 1.1700, it will head towards the next resistance level, which is located in the 1.1775 – 1.1790 range.
On the support side, a move below the 1.1650 level will push EUR/USD towards the support at 1.1600 – 1.1615.
GBP/USD Remains Stuck Near 1.3650 GBP/USD 240826 4h Chart GBP/USD remains stuck near resistance at 1.3635 – 1.3650 amid lack of strong catalysts at the start of the week. Oil prices pulled back by -1.5%, but this move did not provide additional support to the British pound.
If GBP/USD climbs above the 1.3650 level, it will head towards the resistance level at 1.3720 – 1.3735. RSI is in the moderate territory, so there is plenty of room to gain momentum in case the right catalysts emerge.
On the support side, GBP/USD needs to settle below the 1.3620 level to have a chance to gain downside momentum in the near term. In this case, GBP/USD will move towards the next support at 1.3550 – 1.3565.
USD/CAD 240826 4h Chart USD/CAD gained ground as demand for commodity-related currencies declined despite rising gold markets. The pullback in the oil markets has not provided support as traders remained worried about potential escalation in the Middle East, which could hurt global growth and reduce demand for commodities.
Currently, USD/CAD is trying to settle above the resistance level at 1.3825 – 1.3840. In case this attempt is successful, USD/CAD will get to the test of the 50 MA at 1.3855. A move above the 50 MA will push USD/CAD towards the next resistance level at 1.3900 – 1.3915.
USD/JPY Tests The 50 MA At 159.11 USD/JPY 240826 4h Chart USD/JPY moved higher despite the pullback in Treasury yields. The yield of 2-year Treasuries settled near the 4.24% level, while the yield of 10-year Treasuries declined towards 4.69%.
If USD/JPY manages to settle above the 50 MA at 159.11, it will move towards the nearest resistance level, which is located in the 159.50 – 160.00 range. A successful test of this level will open the way to the test of the next resistance at 161.50 – 162.00.
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Vladimir is an independent trader, with over 18 years of experience in the financial markets. His expertise spans a wide range of instruments like stocks, futures, forex, indices, and commodities, forecasting both long-term and short-term market movements.
Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report that the British Pound (GBP) is flat versus the Dollar but outperforming G10 peers despite broad USD strength. With data light, attention turns to PM Burnham’s visit to Kiev and the October 28 budget. Improved sentiment is visible in options markets, and they see scope for GBP/USD to advance toward the 2026 high in the upper‑1.38s.
Pound outperforms on crosses"The pound is entering Monday’s NA session nearly unchanged vs. the USD while outperforming all of the G10 currencies in an environment of broadbased USD strength. The release calendar remains empty and near-term focus appears to be centered on PM Burnham’s visit to Kiev."
"Fiscal developments have been limited but media are already tightening their focus on the autumn budget scheduled for October 28. Measures of sentiment have revealed a material improvement in the market’s mood toward the GBP, with steady gains observed in risk reversals as the options market has faded the premium for protection against downside risk. We see scope for further gains toward the 2026 high in the upper1.38s."
"Bullish – as with EUR, the GBP’s RSI is hovering around the overbought threshold at 70 and just off last week’s peak."
"Recent price action has revealed resistance above 1.3650 and we see limited additional resistance between current spot and the 2026 peak in the upper-1.38s."
"We see near-term support at 1.3600 and 1.3550."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Cable trades near 6 ½ month peak (1.3675, hit on Friday) and moving in more quiet mode on Monday, as traders reduce speed ahead of this week’s key events – release of US PCE Index and the speech of Fed’s Warsh in Jackson Hole symposium, which is expected to provide the latest inflation update as well as potential signal about the US central bank’s steps in coming months.
Negatively diverging 14-d momentum, overbought RSI and long upper shadows on Thu/Fri daily candles, warn that bulls may start losing traction.
Larger bullish structure remains firm and suggests that corrective dips should be shallow (ideally to be contained by rising 10DMA at 1.3559, with deeper pullback to find footstep above 1.3520 – Fibo 38.2% of 1.3273/1.3675 upleg) and keep bulls in play for potential acceleration towards 2026 peak at 1.3869.
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Dollar Index Price Chart – Source: Tradingview For the U.S. Dollar Index, the 4-hour chart shows a price currently at $98.89 after breaking the $99.38 support. The price is below the 50, and 100, period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) confirming a bearish sentiment. The price has been attempting to stabilize in the range of $98.55 to $98.82, and has broken some support, but no major resistances have been established.
The USD Index Relative Strength Indicator (RSI) is at 44. It has improved from the oversold area but remains under neutral. The first resistance is at $98.99, and the subsequent resistances are at $99.13, $99.27, and $99.38. The targets after that are $99.71, and $100.03. The first support is at $98.55, and after that are $98.24, and $97.89.
While the price of the DXY remains below $99.38, the overall sentiment remains bearish. Recovery of the price above $99.38 would change some of the sentiment, but consistent rejection of the price below the EMA cluster would keep the sentiment bearish and may test $98.55 again.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis: Pound Tests Triple-Top Resistance Near $1.3656 as RSI Turns Overbought
United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note GBP/USD remains in a short-term consolidation, with price action confined between 1.3620 and 1.3665 after an overbought push to 1.3675. Their 1–3 week view stays positive, looking for a move toward 1.3700 unless the pair falls through strong support at 1.3585, while longer-term signals still favor broader range trading.
Short term consolidation, medium term upside"24-HOUR VIEW: GBP rose to a high of 1.3661 last Thursday and then eased. When it was at 1.3640 on Friday, we highlighted that “further GBP strength is not ruled out, but deeply overbought conditions suggest any advance could be contained within a 1.3605/1.3670 range.” We added, “even if GBP breaks above 1.3670, it is unlikely to reach the major resistance at 1.3700.” GBP subsequently rose to 1.3675 and then pulled back to close little changed at 1.3644 (+0.09%). The price movements still appear to be part of a range-trading phase. Today, we expect GBP to trade between 1.3620 and 1.3665."
"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: We turned positive on GBP last Monday (17 Aug, spot at 1.3540). On Friday (21 Aug, spot at 1.3640), we indicated that GBP “could continue to rise to 1.3700.” There is no change in our view. On the downside, if GBP breaks below 1.3585 (‘strong support’ level was at 1.3575 last Friday), it would mean that 1.3700 is out of reach."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Pound-Dollar could extend its six-month high if Jackson Hole fails to revive Fed tightening bets and US payroll revisions deepen labour market concerns. The Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate stormed higher last week as markets were spooked by US debt concerns.
At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at around $1.3661. Up around 0.9% from the start of last week’s session.
Latest — Exchange Rates:
Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD): 1.36445 (+0.01%)
Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD): 1.16767 (-0.09%)
Dollar to Yen (USD/JPY): 158.98453 (+0.05%)
DAILY RECAP:
The US Dollar (USD) came under heavy selling pressure this week, with the ‘Greenback’ nosediving as growing concerns over the US fiscal outlook undermined confidence in the currency.
This was sparked by warning signs from the US Treasury market, where elevated long-term borrowing costs prompted the Treasury to announce a significant expansion of its bond buyback programme.
Concerns over the US fiscal outlook were compounded by reports that America’s national debt had reached a new record high of $40tn.
While able to soar to new multi-month highs against the US Dollar, the Pound (GBP) performance against its other peers proved more turbulent amid a deluge of UK economic releases.
The data made for mixed reading, with a weak jobs report and rise in inflation leaving Sterling to struggle in the first half of the week as it clouded the outlook for the Bank of England (BoE).
Attempts to rebound in the latter half of the week also quickly ran out of steam as a sharp slump in retail sales dragged on the Pound, leaving it unable to capitalise on an otherwise encouraging set of flash PMI figures.
Near-Term GBP/USD Forecast: Jackson Hole and Payrolls Revision in the Spotlight Turning to the week ahead, there are a couple of key events which could infuse volatility into the Pound to US Dollar exchange rate next week.
First up is the Federal Reserve's annual Jackson Hole symposium.
Jackson Hole has traditionally been used by Fed Chairs to outline how the bank may shape monetary policy in the coming months, however, under Kevin Warsh, the Fed has moved to limit guidance, which may come as a disappointment to USD investors.
The other focus will be on the US Bureau of Labor Statistics annual revision to non-farm payrolls, which could place significant pressure on the 'Greenback' if the US labour market added fewer jobs than expected over the past twelve months.
Back in the UK, a lull in domestic releases means Sterling will likely take its cues from broader risk appetite and global market sentiment.
Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.
Scotiabank’s conditional GBP/USD objective sits above consensus after Pound Sterling tests the 1.3650/60 resistance area The Pound to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate has tested the mid-1.36s, putting Scotiabank’s conditional route towards 1.41 into focus.
ERUK market data show GBP/USD reached an intraday high near 1.3675 before slipping back towards 1.3645, so the sustained push required by Scotiabank has not yet occurred.
The bank’s scenario depends on a durable advance beyond the 1.3650/60 area, which has contained Sterling near its early-May peak.
It is a notably bullish technical case: ERUK’s Research Currency Forecast Sentiment Survey places the median fourth-quarter forecast at 1.3446 and the top of the surveyed range at 1.40.
Scotiabank analysts noted the recent move reflected broad US Dollar weakness more than a sudden improvement in UK fundamentals.
Nevertheless, the bank judged the technical structure to be firmly positive after GBP/USD twice defended the 1.3150 area during April and June.
The strategists said “a sustained push above 1.3650/60 implies potential for an extension towards the 1.41 zone over the balance of the year”.
That makes 1.41 a possible extension rather than a guaranteed year-end destination, with Sterling still needing to establish former resistance as support.
1.3848 as the intermediate test Sucden Financial analysts highlighted 1.3650/60 as the breakout zone and said the next broader objective was 1.3848.
Sucden described the set-up as one “with the January high around 1.3848 representing a broader upside target”.
The level therefore offers an intermediate test of whether Scotiabank’s larger scenario is gaining traction.
The two institutions reach a similar bullish conclusion but on different horizons.
Sucden’s 1.3848 is the first substantial obstacle above the trigger, while Scotiabank’s conditional 1.41 objective extends through the balance of 2026.
Sucden placed initial support near 1.3600 and a deeper cushion around 1.3500, where the 20-day average and 30-day volume-weighted average price reinforce the technical floor.
A daily close below 1.3600 would weaken the breakout case and expose 1.3500, while a sustained hold above 1.3650/60 would strengthen the route towards 1.3848 and 1.41.
Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.
DXY 210826 4h Chart U.S. Dollar Index continues its attempts to rebound as traders react to PMI reports. Manufacturing PMI declined from 53.9 in July to 53.2 in August, compared to analyst forecast of 53.9. Services PMI improved from 54.6 to 56.8, compared to analyst consensus of 54. Numbers above 50 show expansion. The reports indicated that U.S. economy remained in good shape.
In case U.S. Dollar Index stays above the support at 98.60 – 98.75, it will head towards the nearest resistance level, which is located in the 99.25 – 99.40 range. On the support side, a move below the 98.60 level will push U.S. Dollar Index towards the support at 97.85 – 98.00.
EUR/USD Remains Stuck Near 1.1700
EUR/USD 210826 4h Chart EUR/USD was mostly flat as traders focused on Euro Area PMI data. Manufacturing PMI improved from 51.9 in July to 52.8 in August, compared to analyst consensus of 51.8. Services PMI remained unchanged at 51.7, while analysts expected that it would decline to 51.5. The reports indicated that the European economy expanded despite high oil prices.
Currently, EUR/USD is trying to settle above the resistance level at 1.1685 – 1.1700. In case EUR/USD manages to settle above the 1.1700 level, it will head towards the next resistance level, which is located in the 1.1775 – 1.1790 range. RSI has recently moved into oversold territory, so there is plenty of room to gain momentum in case the right catalysts emerge.
GBP/USD Gained Some Ground As Traders Focused On PMI Data GBP/USD 210826 4h Chart GBP/USD moved higher as UK Services PMI exceeded analyst expectations. The report showed that UK Services PMI improved from 52.1 in July to 52.8 in August, compared to analyst forecast of 51.8.
From the technical point of view, GBP/USD continues its attempts to settle above the resistance level at 1.3635 – 1.3650. If GBP/USD climbs above the 1.3650 level, it will head towards the resistance at 1.3720 – 1.3735.
USD/CAD Tested New Lows USD/CAD 210826 4h Chart USD/CAD remains under pressure as traders focus on the strong rally in precious metals markets. Gold climbed above the $4600 level, while silver moved above $69.00. Other commodity-related currencies are also moving higher in today’s trading session.
A successful test of the support level at 1.3735 – 1.3750 will open the way to the test of the next support at 1.3635 – 1.3650. On the upside, a move above the 1.3775 level will open the way to the test of the 1.3800 level. In case USD/CAD climbs above 1.3800, it will head towards the resistance at 1.3825 – 1.3840.
USD/JPY Moved Lower As Japan’s Inflation Rate Exceeded Estimates
USD/JPY 210826 4h Chart USD/JPY pulled back despite rising Treasury yields. The yield of 2-year Treasuries climbed above the 4.23% level, while the yield of 10-year Treasuries settled above 4.73%. Treasury yields are rising despite Bessent’s attempts to push them lower via verbal interventions.
Traders also focus on inflation data from Japan. Inflation Rate increased from 1.6% in June to 1.9% in July, compared to analyst forecast of 1.7%. Core Inflation Rate grew from 1.6% to 1.8%, in line with analyst estimates.
The nearest support level for USD/JPY is located in the 157.50 – 158.00 range. If USD/JPY declines below 157.50, it will head towards the next support at 155.00 – 155.50. On the upside, a move above the 50 MA at 159.15 will open the way to the test of the resistance level at 159.50 – 160.00.
If you’d like to know more about how to trade forex, please visit our educational area.
British Pound eases as UK sales drop, US services beatThe Pound Sterling loses some ground against the US Dollar, though it remains poised to end the week with gains of over 0.60%, even as UK Retail Sales disappointed investors and US business activity improved in August. The GBP/USD trades at 1.3626, down some 0.02%.
Data in the US was mixed, with S&P Global revealing Flash PMIs. On the positive side, the Services PMI in August rose from 54.6 to 56.8, crushing estimates of 54, while the Manufacturing PMI was 53.2, below estimates and July’s print of 53.9. Read more...
British Pound: Mixed data but Sterling supported – BBHBrown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad says GBP/USD is firmer on broad US Dollar (USD) weakness despite mixed United Kingdom (UK) data. Haddad notes July retail sales fell, partly reversing prior strong gains, while the August PMI surprised to the upside with a four-month high composite reading. Haddad judges market pricing of 50 bps Bank of England (BoE) hikes over twelve months as too aggressive, though the UK’s growth-inflation mix still supports the Pound.
"GBP/USD is firmer on broad USD weakness. Today’s UK set of economic data was mixed. Retail sales declined in July, partly reversing the previous two months’ strong gains." Read more...
1.3670: British Pound hits six-month highs as UK PMI beats expectationsThe British Pound (GBP) rallied to fresh six-month highs against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, boosted by stronger-than-expected UK business activity data, while the US Dollar remains depressed following the US Treasury’s plan to boost bond buybacks. The GBP/USD pair has breached the 1.3660 level for the first time since February and is trading just above 1.3670 at the time of writing.
Preliminary data released by S&P Global revealed that July’s UK Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) improved to 52.8 from June’s 52.1 reading, against expectations of a slight decline to 51.8. Manufacturing Activity slowed down to 51.5, from 51.9 in the previous month, in line with market expectations, and the Composite PMI ticked up to 52.5 from 52.2 in June, also beating forecasts of a decline to 51.6. Read more...
British Pound holds gains against a weak US Dollar despite downbeat UK Retail SalesThe British Pound (GBP) trades firm against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, with the GBP/USD pair pushing against six-month highs in the 1.3660 area at the time of writing, on track for a 0.8% weekly rally. UK Retail Sales confirmed that consumption fell in July, but the pair maintains its bullish tone intact, as the US Dollar remains on its back foot, hammered by the Treasury’s bond buyback plans.
Data released by National Statistics on Friday revealed that retail consumption contracted 0.5% in the UK in July, in line with market expectations, following a 0.7% increase in June. Year-over-year, sales increased at a 1.6% pace, down from 3.8% in June and below the consensus 2.2%. Read more...
British Pound edges higher to near 1.3650, UK Retail Sales data loomsThe GBP/USD pair gathers strength near 1.3645 during the early Asian trading hours on Friday. The US Dollar (USD) softens against the British Pound (GBP) amid fading Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike expectations. Traders brace for the UK Retail Sales data for July, which will be published later on Friday.
Softer US economic data and uncertainty over Fed policy exert some selling pressure on the Greenback. Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo, said that higher Treasury yields do not necessarily underpin the USD if investors believe the increase reflects fiscal risk, heavier government borrowing or persistent inflation, rather than stronger US growth or tighter monetary policy. Read more...
GBP/USD at three-month high: Outlook hinges on economic dataGBP/USD surged to 1.3613 on Wednesday, reaching a three-month high. Investors are digesting fresh UK inflation and labour market data.
Consumer inflation accelerated to 2.9% in July, up from 2.6% in June and in line with forecasts. Core inflation held steady at 2.6%. Following the release, markets slightly scaled back expectations of a Bank of England rate hike before year-end. Read more...
Pound Sterling jumped to $1.3675 after UK services activity unexpectedly accelerated, adding to signs that the economy is holding up better than feared. The Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate surged to an intraday high of 1.3675 on Friday after a much stronger-than-expected UK services survey delivered a fresh positive surprise for Sterling.
The S&P Global flash PMI survey showed the UK Services PMI rising to 52.8 in August from 52.1 in July, its strongest reading for six months and well above the 51.8 consensus in a Reuters poll.
The composite PMI also strengthened to 52.5 from 52.2, compared with expectations for 51.6, while manufacturing eased to 51.5 from 51.9.
GBP/USD later eased back to around 1.3656 by late morning, still 0.09% higher on the day and 0.91% stronger over the previous five sessions.
Pound Sterling reaction around the 09:30 BST UK Services PMI release, showing GBP/USD and GBP/EUR. Services Surprise Strengthens the UK Resilience Story S&P Global said the survey was consistent with UK GDP growth of around 0.3% in the third quarter, with services benefiting from better domestic conditions, favourable weather and technology investment.
Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said: “The expansion is being helped by sunny weather and tech investment”.
There were still reasons for the Bank of England to remain cautious. Employment continued to fall and price pressures picked up again as higher energy costs fed into business expenses.
The combination leaves the BoE facing stronger activity alongside persistent inflation risks, reducing the urgency for any near-term policy easing.
For GBP/USD, the fresh 1.3675 high is now the immediate resistance point. A sustained break above that area would put the 1.3700 level in focus, while a retreat below 1.3600 would suggest the post-PMI momentum is beginning to fade.
Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.
Gold stays poised to post third straight week of gainsUS Treasury move risks creating unintended consequences for markets and the economyWhy markets care more about the signal than the size of the Treasury buybackHow have interest rate expectations changed after this week's events?Stock market sector rotation explained: Where investors are moving their money nowECB's Kazāks says September decision will be based on data, adds there are pros and cons to hiking furtherFrench business activity contracts further in August as demand conditions remain subduedGermany August flash manufacturing PMI 54.1 vs 52.0 expectedEuro area business activity sees further pick up in August despite France, Germany softnessUK August flash services PMI 52.8 vs 51.8 expectedUK retail sales fall in July as early summer buzz fadesMarkets:
AUD leads, USD lags on the dayGold up 1.7% to $4,596WTI crude oil up 0.4% to $87.20US 10-year yields down 0.6 bps to 4.692%European indices slightly higher; S&P 500 futures up 0.4%Bitcoin up 6.6% to $77,502Markets continue to debate the US Treasury decision to double long-term debt buybacks this week, with the dollar falling off again as Treasury yields stall after a bounce yesterday.
10-year yields in the US climbed back to 4.70% while 30-year yields pushed to 5.25% before easing back a little and that is sustaining the relief as the "Bessent put" stays in place. In turn, the dollar is seen falling across the board with EUR/USD testing waters above 1.1700 and GBP/USD hitting fresh 6-month highs of 1.3660. Elsewhere, USD/JPY is down 0.3% to 158.60 while AUD/USD is up 0.8% to 0.7165 on the day.
In terms of economic data releases, euro area PMI data saw France and Germany disappoint but the overall Eurozone data was more positive in being carried by a better showing by the rest of the region. Menawhile, UK PMI data was also more positive but it also saw inflation pressures ramp up. So, there's that.
But in terms of market impact, the PMI data didn't do much. It's all on the continued focus on the reaction to the US Treasury move from earlier this week.
Gold is the biggest winner it would seem, climbing further to briefly clip $4,600 earlier and still up by 1.7% to $4,596 currently. Silver also briefly touched $70 and is up 2.6% to $69.90 at the moment.
In other markets, equities are looking to find a steadier footing to close out the week with European indices up a little while Wall Street looks to bounce back from yesterday's setback. S&P 500 futures are up 0.4% while Nasdaq futures are up 0.6%.
And quietly, we're also seeing cryptocurrencies surge higher again in extending gains from earlier this week with Bitcoin keeping above $77,000.
United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang reports GBP/USD at 1.3640 remains supported after breaking key resistance levels, with intraday gains likely capped between 1.3605 and 1.3670. Over the next 1–3 weeks, he expects the Pound to continue rising toward 1.3700, provided it holds above 1.3570, while longer-term signals still point to range trading.
Pound advance eyes major resistance"24-HOUR VIEW: GBP soared to a high of 1.3630 two days ago. Yesterday, we highlighted the following: “The sharp rise appears to be overdone. This, combined with deeply overbought conditions, suggests that instead of continuing to rise, GBP is more likely to consolidate between 1.3570 and 1.3630.” Our view of consolidation was incorrect as GBP rose to a high of 1.3661. GBP closed 0.19% higher at 1.3632. Further GBP strength is not ruled out, but deeply overbought conditions suggest any advance could be contained within a 1.3605/1.3670 range. Even if GBP breaks above 1.3670, it is unlikely to reach the major resistance at 1.3700."
"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: We highlighted on Monday (17 Aug, spot at 1.3540) that “the upside bias in GBP remains intact, but any advance is expected to face firm resistance at 1.3600.” After GBP surged and broke above 1.3600, we highlighted yesterday (19 Aug, spot at 1.3600) that “further GBP strength remains likely, but with negative divergence forming on momentum indicators, this time around, any advance is expected to face firm resistance at 1.3655.” We underestimated the strength of the upward momentum as GBP subsequently broke above 1.3655 with a high of 1.3661. Having surpassed 1.3655, GBP could continue to rise toward 1.3700. To keep the momentum going, GBP must hold above 1.3570 (‘strong support’ level was at 1.3535 yesterday)."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Pound-Dollar can hold above $1.36 if pressure on the US Dollar from fiscal concerns and softer Fed bets offsets any drag from weaker UK retail sales and PMI data. The Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate maintained a positive trajectory on Thursday, with the pairing being propelled to its best levels since mid-February.
At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at around $1.3646. Up around 0.3% from Thursday’s opening levels.
Latest — Exchange Rates:
Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD): 1.362643 (+0.20%)
Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD): 1.167162 (-0.02%)
Dollar to Yen (USD/JPY): 159.0647 (+0.51%)
DAILY RECAP:
The US Dollar (USD) remained under pressure on Thursday, slipping to fresh multi-month lows as concerns over the US fiscal outlook continued to weigh on sentiment towards the ‘Greenback’.
The latest warning sign came as America’s national debt surpassed the $40tn mark for the first time, reinforcing concerns over the sustainability of the country’s finances and the growing cost of servicing its debt.
The milestone came alongside ongoing volatility in the US bond market, where long-term borrowing costs had climbed sharply, forcing the US Treasury to step in and announce it would at least double the size of its planned buybacks of longer-dated government debt.
The Pound (GBP) traded with modest support on Thursday, firming on the back of the Confederation of British Industry's (CBI) latest industrial trends orders index.
The index printed at -25 this month, marking a continued contraction in order books, but a marked improvement from the -45 recorded in July and striking its best levels since late 2024.
The data points to surprising resilience in the UK manufacturing sector, despite headwinds posed by the war in the Middle East and rising energy prices.
Near-Term GBP/USD Forecast: UK retail sales and PMIs could test Sterling strength Turning to Friday's session, the Pound to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate may be pressured by the final UK economic releases of the week.
Friday's European session opens with the release of the UK's latest retail sales data, which is forecast to report a contraction in consumer spending and sap Sterling sentiment.
The subsequent publication of the UK's latest PMIs could then drag the Pound even lower, as economists forecast that growth in the UK's dominant services sector is likely to have slowed this month.
Closing out the session will be the publication of the latest US S&P PMIs. While not as influential as the ISM indexes, they could still lend the US Dollar support if they point to further resilience in the US private sector.
Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.
British Pound climbs as UK inflation keeps BoE hike bets aliveThe Pound Sterling (GBP) advances on Thursday during the North American session, up 0.25% after US economic data showed that the labor market remains solid, despite a weaker Nonfarm Payrolls in July. The GBP/USD pair trades at 1.3639 after reaching a daily high of 1.3659, its highest level since February.
The Greenback has recovered some ground after posting losses, following the US Department of the Treasury's announcement of a bond buyback program. The Treasury’s goal is to provide liquidity for the long end of the curve, but markets interpreted the move as a form of Yield Curve Control (YCC). Read more...
British Pound: Sustained break above 1.3650 may open 1.41 – ScotiabankScotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note that GBP/USD gains into the mid-1.36s are driven more by US Dollar (USD) weakness than intrinsic British Pound (GBP) strength, though United Kingdom (UK) survey data show improving manufacturing orders and pricing power. Technically, Cable has met the near-term objective of retesting the May peak, and a sustained move above 1.3650/60 is seen implying scope for an extension towards 1.41 this year.
"Sterling gains to the mid-1.36s largely reflect our general outlook for the pound but the story is clearly more about USD weakness than GBP strength at the moment." Read more...
British Pound gains as US Dollar softens on Treasury bond buybacksGBP/USD extends its gains for the second successive day, trading around 1.3630 during the European hours on Thursday. The pair appreciates as the US Dollar (USD) faces challenges, driven by the decision of the US Treasury Department to stabilize domestic bond markets.
US Treasury announced plans to curb surging yields and alleviate market liquidity concerns by doubling its buyback operations for long-dated securities maturing in 10 to 30 years. This increased intervention aims to cap long-term borrowing costs and enhance overall global US Dollar liquidity, which could ultimately exert downside pressure on the currency moving forward. Read more...
Key Points:GBP/USD moved higher as rally continued. USD/CAD pulled back as traders reacted to the rally in the oil markets. USD/JPY rebounded towards 159.00 as traders focused on rising Treasury yields.
EUR/USD
0.00%
EUR/USD ForecastGBP/USD
+0.22%
GBP/USD ForecastUSD/CAD
-0.14%
USD/CAD ForecastUSD/JPY
+0.46%
USD/JPY Forecast
U.S. Dollar Gains Ground As Traders Buy The Dip
DXY 200826 4h Chart U.S. Dollar Index attempts to rebound after the strong sell-off, which was triggered by Treasury’s decision to boost buybacks of long-dated bonds.
Today, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated that Treasury could increase buybacks to more than $4 billion per issue.
Traders also focused on the Initial Jobless Claims report. The report indicated that 206,000 Americans filed for unemployment benefits in a week, compared to analyst forecast of 210,000.
U.S. Dollar Index failed to settle below the support level at 98.60 – 98.75 and is moving towards the 99.00 level. In case U.S. Dollar Index climbs above 99.00, it will head towards the nearest resistance at 99.25 – 99.40. A move above 99.40 will push U.S. Dollar Index towards the 50 MA at 99.58.
EUR/USD Is Mostly Flat Amid Profit-Taking EUR/USD 200826 4h Chart EUR/USD is mostly flat as traders take some profits off the table and react to Germany’s PPI report. The report indicated that PPI increased by +3% year-over-year, compared to analyst forecast of +2.7%.
From the technical point of view, EUR/USD attempts to settle above the resistance level at 1.1685 – 1.1700. If EUR/USD moves above the 1.1700 level, it will head towards the next resistance at 1.1775 – 1.1790.
GBP/USD Tests Resistance At 1.3635 – 1.3650 GBP/USD 200826 4h Chart GBP/USD tested new highs as rally continued. Traders bet that Treasury’s bond buybacks will put additional pressure on the American currency.
Currently, GBP/USD is trying to settle above the resistance level at 1.3635 – 1.3650. In case this attempt is successful, GBP/USD will move towards the next resistance, which is located in the 1.3720 – 1.3735 range.
USD/CAD Tests New Lows
USD/CAD 200826 4h Chart USD/CAD remains under pressure as traders focus on rising oil prices. Other commodity-related currencies are mixed in today’s trading session.
In Canada, traders focus on the New Housing Price Index report. The report showed that new housing prices decreased by -0.1% month-over-month in July, compared to analsyt forecast of 0%.
The nearest support level for USD/CAD is located in the 1.3735 – 1.3750. A successful test of this level will push USD/CAD towards the support level at 1.3635 – 1.3650.
On the upside, a move above the 1.3800 level will open the way to the test of the resistance level at 1.3825 – 1.3840. RSI has recently moved out of the oversold territory, so there is plenty of room to gain momentum in case the right catalysts emerge.
USD/JPY Gains Ground As Treasury Yields Rise USD/JPY 200826 4h Chart USD/JPY rebounds as traders focus on rising Treasury yields. The yield of 2-year Treasuries climbed towards the 4.20% level, while the yield of 10-year Treasrueis settled above 4.70%. Treasury yields are moving higher despite Bessent’s efforts to push them lower as bond traders remain worried about long-term rate outlook.
If USD/JPY climbs above the 50 MA at 159.18, it will move towards the nearest resistance level at 159.50 – 160.00. A move above 160.00 will push USD/JPY towards the 162.00 level. It remains to be seen whether BoJ is ready to intervene in case USD/JPY climbs above the psychologically important 160.00 level.
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US Dollar Price Forecast: Falling Treasury Yields Sink DXY as EUR/USD Breaks HigherU.S. Dollar Dives As Treasury Boosts Buybacks Of Long-Dated Bonds: Analysis For EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPYGBP/USD, USD/CHF, and USD/JPY – Short-Term Forecast for 19/08/2026
Vladimir is an independent trader, with over 18 years of experience in the financial markets. His expertise spans a wide range of instruments like stocks, futures, forex, indices, and commodities, forecasting both long-term and short-term market movements.
GBP/USD surged to 1.3613 on Wednesday, reaching a three-month high. Investors are digesting fresh UK inflation and labour market data.
Consumer inflation accelerated to 2.9% in July, up from 2.6% in June and in line with forecasts. Core inflation held steady at 2.6%. Following the release, markets slightly scaled back expectations of a Bank of England rate hike before year-end.
Earlier labour market data showed unemployment holding at 4.9%, above expectations, while the number of payrolled employees fell by 86,000 year-on-year. Meanwhile, growth in regular pay remained fairly stable at 3.5%.
Additional support for the pound is coming from a weaker dollar. Soft US economic data have led investors to reduce expectations of further Federal Reserve tightening. At the same time, elevated oil prices and uncertainty surrounding the US–Iran conflict continue to pose inflation risks for the UK.
Technical Analysis
On the H4 GBP/USD chart, a wide consolidation range is forming around the 1.3523 level. The market has moved towards its upper boundary. A new compact consolidation range is expected to form below 1.3631. A downside breakout from this range would open the way for a move lower towards 1.3500. The MACD supports this scenario, with its signal line above zero and beginning to turn downwards.
On the H1 chart, the market has formed a compact consolidation range around the 1.3607 level, currently extending between 1.3588 and 1.3618. A move lower towards 1.3572 is expected, followed by a move higher to 1.3600. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this scenario, with its signal line below 80 and trending downward towards 20, indicating short-term downside pressure.
Conclusion GBP/USD has climbed to a three-month high, supported by a weaker dollar and UK economic data that largely met expectations. Inflation accelerated to 2.9% in July, while core inflation held steady, prompting markets to slightly lower BoE rate hike expectations. Labour market data showed unemployment above forecasts and a decline in payroll employment, though wage growth remained stable. The dollar remains under pressure from soft US data, which has reduced Fed tightening expectations. However, elevated oil prices and geopolitical uncertainty continue to pose inflation risks for the UK. Technically, the pair may see a short-term pullback towards 1.3572, with potential for a further decline to 1.3500. The near-term direction will depend on upcoming economic releases and central bank signals.
Disclaimer
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GBP/USD surged to 1.3613 on Wednesday, reaching a three-month high. Investors are digesting fresh UK inflation and labour market data.
Consumer inflation accelerated to 2.9% in July, up from 2.6% in June and in line with forecasts. Core inflation held steady at 2.6%. Following the release, markets slightly scaled back expectations of a Bank of England rate hike before year-end.
Earlier labour market data showed unemployment holding at 4.9%, above expectations, while the number of payrolled employees fell by 86,000 year-on-year. Meanwhile, growth in regular pay remained fairly stable at 3.5%.
Additional support for the pound is coming from a weaker dollar. Soft US economic data have led investors to reduce expectations of further Federal Reserve tightening. At the same time, elevated oil prices and uncertainty surrounding the US–Iran conflict continue to pose inflation risks for the UK.
Technical analysis
On the H4 GBP/USD chart, a wide consolidation range is forming around the 1.3523 level. The market has moved towards its upper boundary. A new compact consolidation range is expected to form below 1.3631. A downside breakout from this range would open the way for a move lower towards 1.3500. The MACD supports this scenario, with its signal line above zero and beginning to turn downwards.
On the H1 chart, the market has formed a compact consolidation range around the 1.3607 level, currently extending between 1.3588 and 1.3618. A move lower towards 1.3572 is expected, followed by a move higher to 1.3600. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this scenario, with its signal line below 80 and trending downward towards 20, indicating short-term downside pressure.
ConclusionGBP/USD has climbed to a three-month high, supported by a weaker dollar and UK economic data that largely met expectations. Inflation accelerated to 2.9% in July, while core inflation held steady, prompting markets to slightly lower BoE rate hike expectations. Labour market data showed unemployment above forecasts and a decline in payroll employment, though wage growth remained stable. The dollar remains under pressure from soft US data, which has reduced Fed tightening expectations. However, elevated oil prices and geopolitical uncertainty continue to pose inflation risks for the UK. Technically, the pair may see a short-term pullback towards 1.3572, with potential for a further decline to 1.3500. The near-term direction will depend on upcoming economic releases and central bank signals.
The Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate jumped above 1.3600 on Wednesday, reaching its strongest level since May as falling Treasury yields hit the US Dollar.
Pound Sterling's own UK inflation backdrop was broadly neutral.
Latest — Exchange Rates:
Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD): 1.360955 (+0.55%)
Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD): 1.167557 (+0.86%)
Dollar to Yen (USD/JPY): 158.12827 (-0.89%)
DAILY RECAP:
GBP/USD climbed around 0.5% as the Dollar sold off sharply across the major currencies.
The decisive move came after the US Treasury announced it would double buybacks of longer-dated government bonds, sending 10 and 30-year yields lower and easing financial conditions.
Deutsche Bank strategist George Saravelos warned that failure by the Federal Reserve to recognise that effect would amount to “an additional dollar negative driver.”
The subsequent FOMC minutes were more hawkish.
Several policymakers had been prepared to raise rates in July, while many judged that another increase would be needed if inflation failed to return towards target.
Markets largely looked through that message following softer jobs, inflation and retail sales data released since the meeting.
ING's Chris Turner said: “Our base case is that it does not, and the dollar softens a little,” referring to the prospect of a September Fed hike.
Scotiabank remains similarly cautious on the US currency, stating: “We remain bearish on the outlook for the USD in the short/medium term.”
Pound Sterling had earlier shown little reaction to UK inflation.
Headline CPI rose as expected to 2.9%, while services inflation eased to 3.4% and producer input prices dropped 1.7%.
Those figures, combined with Tuesday's softer labour data, leave the Bank of England with little urgency to raise rates again.
Near-Term GBP/USD Forecast: 1.3650 in Focus After Dollar Sell-Off Thursday brings US jobless claims, forecast at 210,000, alongside the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index.
Friday is busier for Sterling. UK retail sales are forecast to fall 0.5%, before manufacturing and services PMIs at 09:30 BST.
US flash PMIs follow at 14:45 BST.
Strong UK activity alongside softer US figures could push GBP/USD through 1.3650 and expose 1.3700.
Weak UK retail sales combined with resilient US data would put 1.3500 back in view.
The broader Pound to Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) remains constructive while the pair holds above the low-1.35 area.
Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.
Key Points:EUR/USD rallied as traders focused on U.S. bonds' buyback. GBP/USD climbed above 1.3600 as traders reacted to inflation data from the UK. USD/CAD declined towards the 1.3800 level as precious metals markets rallied.
In this article:EUR/USD
+0.78%
EUR/USD ForecastGBP/USD
+0.52%
GBP/USD ForecastUSD/CAD
-0.62%
USD/CAD ForecastUSD/JPY
-0.69%
USD/JPY Forecast
U.S. Dollar Retreats As Traders Focus On Bond Buybacks
DXY 190826 4h Chart U.S. Dollar Index is under strong pressure as U.S. Treasury announced that it would boost buybacks of longer-dated government debt.
The yield of 30-year Treasuries pulled back towards the 5.20% level as bond traders reacted to the announcement. The yield of 10-year Treasuries declined below the 4.67% level.
The American currency is losing ground as debt buybacks pushed longer-term yields lower.
The nearest support level for U.S. Dollar Index is located in the 98.60 – 98.75 range. In case U.S. Dollar Index manages to settle below the 98.60 level, it will head towards the next support at 97.85 – 98.00. It should be noted that RSI is in the oversold territory, so the risks of a rebound are increasing.
EUR/USD Soars After U.S. Treasury Decides To Boost Bond Buybacks EUR/USD 190826 4h Chart EUR/USD rallied as traders focused on U.S. Treasury decision to buy back bonds. The moved showe that Bessent was worried that longer-dated bond market will get out of control.
EUR/USD is moving towards the resistance level at 1.1685 – 1.1700. If EUR/USD manages to settle above the 1.1700 level, it will head towards the next resistance level, which is located in the 1.1775 – 1.1790 range.
GBP/USD Rallies As Traders Focus On UK Inflation Data GBP/USD 190826 4h Chart GBP/USD gained ground as traders focused on general weakness of the American currency. Traders also had a chance to take a look at inflation data from the UK.
Inflation Rate increased from 2.6% in June to 2.9% in July, in line with analyst consensus. Core Inflation Rate remained unchanged at 2.6%, while analysts expected that it would drop to 2.9%.
USD/CAD Tests New Lows
USD/CAD 190826 4h Chart USD/CAD pulled back as traders reacted to the strong rally in precious metals markets. Gold climbed towards the $4500 level, while silver moved towards $66.00. Other commodity-related currencies have also gained upside momentum in today’s trading session.
Currently, USD/CAD is trying to settle below the support level at 1.3825 – 1.3840. In case USD/CAD manages to settle below the 1.3825 level, it will head towards the next support, which is located in the 1.3735 – 1.3750 range. RSI has recently moved into oversold territory, but there is enough room to gain momentum in case the right catalysts emerge.
USD/JPY Moves Away From Weekly Highs USD/JPY 190826 4h Chart USD/JPY pulled back as traders focused on U.S. bonds’ buyback. The Japanese yen is fundamentally weak due to ultra-dovish policy of the Bank of Japan. Falling yields in the U.S. will put pressure on USD/JPY.
However, it remains to be seen whether buyback will provide major support to U.S. bond prices and pushes their yields to lower levels. Meanwhile, shorter-term U.S. Treasuries have found themselves under pressure. The yield of 2-year Treasuries climbed above the 4.19% level.
The nearest support level for USD/JPY is located in the 157.50 – 158.00 range. If USD/JPY manages to settle below the 157.50 level, it will head towards the next support level at 155.00 – 155.50.
On the upside, a move above the 50 MA at 159.10 will push USD/JPY towards the resistance level at 159.50 – 160.00.
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Vladimir is an independent trader, with over 18 years of experience in the financial markets. His expertise spans a wide range of instruments like stocks, futures, forex, indices, and commodities, forecasting both long-term and short-term market movements.
The British Pound (GBP) is up 0.2% to near 1.3557 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Wednesday. The GBP/USD pair trades higher as the US Dollar faces selling pressure, with traders scaling back Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike bets due to weak United States (US) economic data for August.
Meanwhile, investors await the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes of the July policy meeting, which will be published at 18:00 GMT. Read more...
British Pound edges up within range following hotter UK inflation dataThe British Pound (GBP) ticked up against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, following the release of UK inflation data. The GBP/USD pair has returned to the mid-range of the 1.3500s on Wednesday, trading a few pips above 1.3550 at the time of writing, although it remains trapped within previous days’ range, below the 1.3570 resistance area.
Data released by National Statistics on Wednesday revealed that UK inflation accelerated in line with market expectations in July. UK's Consumer Price Index (CPI) grew at a 0.3% rate on the month and 2.9% year-over-year (Y-o-Y) from 0.1% and 2.6% respectively last month. The Core CPI grew at a 2.6% Y-o-Y rate, unchanged from the previous month, against the market consensus for a downtick to 2.5%. Read more...
British Pound shows limited reaction to expected increase in UK headline inflationThe British Pound (GBP) reflects a slight market action against the Japanese Yen (JPY) near its day’s low at around 215.70 after the release of the United Kingdom (UK) Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for July.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has reported that the headline inflation accelerated to 2.9% Year-on-Year (YoY), as expected, from 2.5% in June. The core CPI – which excludes volatile components of food, energy, alcohol and tobacco – grew at a steady pace of 2.6% YoY, while it was expected to slow down to 2.5%. Read more...
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The British Pound (GBP) is up 0.2% to near 1.3557 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Wednesday. The GBP/USD pair trades higher as the US Dollar faces selling pressure, with traders scaling back Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike bets due to weak United States (US) economic data for August.
US Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the weakest against the Japanese Yen.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.29%-0.20%-0.37%-0.22%0.10%-0.13%-0.29%EUR0.29%0.08%-0.07%0.09%0.39%0.14%0.01%GBP0.20%-0.08%-0.13%0.00%0.34%0.07%-0.08%JPY0.37%0.07%0.13%0.15%0.45%0.21%0.06%CAD0.22%-0.09%-0.00%-0.15%0.30%0.06%-0.09%AUD-0.10%-0.39%-0.34%-0.45%-0.30%-0.24%-0.37%NZD0.13%-0.14%-0.07%-0.21%-0.06%0.24%-0.14%CHF0.29%-0.01%0.08%-0.06%0.09%0.37%0.14% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Meanwhile, investors await the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes of the July policy meeting, which will be published at 18:00 GMT.
Dollar steadies as FOMC minutes eyed for limited hawkish surpriseAnalysts at ING highlight that “for today, the focus will be on tonight's release of the FOMC minutes for the July meeting,” noting that the earlier decision saw “the vote… 9-3 for unchanged rates and the event proved a dovish one for the short end of the US curve and the Dollar, while the long end sold off.” ING argues that “the suspicion is that the 12-member FOMC is less hawkish than the participants whose projections delivered forecasts of a 9:9 split for a hike in the June set of Dot Plots.” As a result, while they concede “there may be a few hawkish references in tonight's minutes that could nudge the Dollar and short-dated rates a little firmer,” they stress that “we do not see the minutes as a game changer.”
Ahead of the FOMC minutes, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.26% lower to near 99.38, close to its two-month low of 99.29 posted on Monday.
On the United Kingdom (UK) front, the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for July has come in higher at 2.9% Year-on-Year (YoY), as expected, from 2.6% in June. The core CPI growth remains steady at 2.6% YoY, while it was expected to cool down to 2.5%.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis
GBP/USD trades near 1.3560. The pair maintains a bullish near-term bias as spot holds above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 1.3475 and the former resistance trend line, now acting as support around 1.3436.
The Relative Strength Index (14) near 64 stays in positive territory, hinting at sustained upward momentum without yet reaching extreme overbought conditions.
On the downside, the immediate support emerges at the 20-day EMA at 1.3475, followed by the trend-line break level near 1.3436. On the topside, the pair needs to break above the three-month high at 1.3571 to extend the advance towards 1.3600, followed by the May high at 1.3658.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Economic Indicator Consumer Price Index (YoY) The United Kingdom (UK) Consumer Price Index (CPI), released by the Office for National Statistics on a monthly basis, is a measure of consumer price inflation – the rate at which the prices of goods and services bought by households rise or fall – produced to international standards. It is the inflation measure used in the government’s target. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to a year earlier. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Pound Sterling (GBP), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
Read more.
The Bank of England is tasked with keeping inflation, as measured by the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) at around 2%, giving the monthly release its importance. An increase in inflation implies a quicker and sooner increase of interest rates or the reduction of bond-buying by the BOE, which means squeezing the supply of pounds. Conversely, a drop in the pace of price rises indicates looser monetary policy. A higher-than-expected result tends to be GBP bullish.
Key Points:Today's Fed minutes are the primary dollar catalyst as traders look for details on policymakers' views on rates and inflation.Markets currently favor a September Fed hold, according to the probabilities cited in your draft, reducing support from U.S. rate expectations.ECB tightening expectations are providing fundamental support for the euro as inflation remains above the central bank's target.UK inflation data are an important sterling catalyst as the BoE balances persistent price pressures against a cooling labor market.DXY remains vulnerable below the 99.89–100.19 EMA cluster, with 99.38 acting as the critical downside support.
In this article:GBP/USD
+0.07%
GBP/USD ForecastEUR/USD
+0.11%
EUR/USD ForecastUS Dollar News: Fed Minutes, ECB Hike Bets and UK Inflation Drive FX
Opening today, the focus is on upcoming minutes from the July Fed meeting. These will offer insight on how divided members were on the call regarding another potential rate hike. Although recent domestic data has shown signs of slowing (i.e. negative jobs report, milder inflation reports, lack of retail spending) current markets lean towards a chance of the Fed holding rates at the September meeting at about 65%, whereas a potential tightening is at 35%. Middle East supply concerns also mean that the dollar is not safe from another surprise inflation surge and a potential for more rate hikes.
On the other hand, the Euro has the potential to harden against the dollar given that, although inflation in the EU is at 2.9% (compared to the ECB’s target of 2%), eurozone inflation is still due to energy costs, which of course are transitory. A Reuters survey shows that 57 out of the 69 economists surveyed anticipate an increase of 25 basis points in the interest rate by the ECB from 2% to 2.5% in September, with a pause on interest rate hikes until the middle of 2027 at least.
Although inflation is falling in the UK as seen in the cooling of labor put in (i.e. dip in job vacancies and private sector wage growth), it is still signaling a negative outlook for GBP.
Investors are waiting for UK July inflation data coming Wednesday lunchtime. Analysts expect an increase in headline inflation to 2.9% from 2.6%. 56 of 64 economists surveyed by Reuters expect the BoE to maintain Bank Rate at 3.75% through the end of 2023.
For August 19, the main FX theme is policy divergence: fading Fed-hike expectations, a more hawkish ECB, and a BoE becoming more constrained by cooling jobs data, even with mounting inflationary pressures.
U.S. Dollar Index Technical Analysis: DXY Pressures $99.38 Support as Momentum Stays Weak
Dollar Index Price Chart – Source: Tradingview
The U.S. Dollar Index is trading at approximately $99.55 after a long slide from the $101.60 zone. The price, which remains below the 50 and 100-day EMAs positioned at $100.19 and $99.89, respectively, keeps the short term outlook negative. The last few candles are clustering above the ascending trendline and the $99.38 support zone, making this area crucial for the potential continuation of the broader recovery.
The RSI line is at 38, indicating weak momentum and raising the risk for another test to the downside. Immediate resistance is at $100.06, then at $100.66, $101.30 and $101.77. In the case of a confirmed break below $99.38, we may see $98.94, $98.41 and $97.84
While the DXY is trading below the $99.89 – $100.19 zone, it is vulnerable in my opinion. The DXY can bounce to $100.06 if it holds $99.38, however, a daily close below $99.38 would be a much stronger bearish signal.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis: Pound Consolidates Above Rising Trendline Near $1.3540
GBP/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview
GBP/USD stands at $1.3541 in the 2-hour chart, consolidating after moving towards the resistance area of $1.3565. For now, price resides above the 50-EMA at $1.3529 and the 100-EMA at $1.3510. The bullish structure is supported by an ascending trendline. The recent price action in the form of sideways candlesticks is signaling a pause in the price action rather than a reversal.
At the momentistics index (RSI) stands at the 53 level, which indicates neutral momentum after a decline from higher level. The price area of $1.3565 is the next resistance zone, followed by $1.3596, $1.3629 and $1.3660. On the opposite side, we see support zone at $1.3520, $1.3476, and $1.3434.
GBP/USD is bullish above $1.3510 – $1.3520. A break above $1.3565 will stimulate the buying amongst traders and push the price higher towards $1.3596, while a move below the trendline will likely push the price down towards $1.3476.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Euro Holds Rising Trendline Above $1.1570
EUR/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview
The price of EUR/USD is at $1.1586, while the broader bullish structure is above the rising trendline. The price is above the 50 EMA and 100 EMA located at $1.1569 and $1.1553, respectively. The latest price consolidation shows buyers are supporting the pullbacks after the advance to $1.1614
The RSI line is at 59 and is a good indicator of momentum as it is not in the overbought area. The next resistance price levels are at $1.1614, $1.1649 and $1.1684. Support levels are at $1.1570, $1.1545, $1.1515 and $1.1480.
I think that EUR/USD is technically positive above $1.1545-$1.1570 and the rising trendline. If $1.1614 is broken to the upside, then the $1.1649 level comes next. Selling EUR/USD below $1.1545 will shift the bias to the downside and target the lower EMAs.
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Arslan is a finance MBA and also holds an MPhil degree in behavioral finance. An expert in financial analysis and investor psychology, Arslan uses his academic background to bring valuable insights about market sentiment and whether instruments are likely to be overbought or oversold.
JPMorgan's GBP/USD exchange rate forecast falls to 1.28 by December 2026, putting Pound Sterling at the bottom of the latest consensus range. Foreign exchange analysts a JPMorgan expect the Pound to Dollar exchange rate to fall from 1.3541 to 1.28 by the end of 2026, a decline of roughly 5.5% if its forecast is realised.
Image: GBP/USD price movement over the month to 18 August 2026. The bank's end-period path puts GBP/USD at 1.31 in September, 1.28 in December, 1.29 in March 2027 and 1.28 in June 2027.
The signal therefore extends beyond one policy meeting and across 2027.
That is a conspicuously bearish destination: the Exchange Rates UK Research Currency Forecast Sentiment Survey has a fourth-quarter median of 1.3446 and a range of 1.28 to 1.40.
JPMorgan's 1.28 therefore sits at the survey floor rather than near its centre.
Image: ERUK bank forecast consensus ranges for GBP/USD across eight quarters, as of 18 August 2026. The UK rate gap is the pressure point JPMorgan's table supplies the path rather than a pair-specific explanation; Goldman Sachs offers a separate rates argument for Sterling weakness.
Goldman said its economists are calling for "no hikes this year (30bps priced), and two cuts next year, which relative to current pricing (shown below) remains a risk for GBP over the medium-term".
Such a repricing would erode Pound Sterling's carry support.
The Bank of England held Bank Rate at 3.75% on 29 July, although three of nine policymakers preferred an increase to 4%.
Lloyds said "payrolled employment has now declined in each of the past six months", with timely indicators continuing "to point to subdued labour demand". Private-pay data, it added, "provide little evidence that domestically generated inflation pressures are beginning to re-intensify".
Yet the conflict-driven energy shock means the path is not one-way.
Lloyds observed that "financial markets continue to anticipate Bank Rate moving higher over the coming months", while the policy outlook "continues to hinge largely on global developments".
It added that "a 25bp increase is not currently fully priced until the December MPC meeting, suggesting investors do not expect policymakers to respond aggressively in the near term". That timing makes JPMorgan's 1.28 destination a challenge to the current UK rate curve, not merely to spot sentiment.
That leaves the JPMorgan GBP/USD forecast as a test of which influence wins: weaker domestic labour conditions or another inflation impulse from energy.
If rate expectations are repriced towards Goldman's path, 1.28 becomes easier to defend; if the Bank tightens, the survey's higher Sterling outcomes remain live.
Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.
The Pound Sterling steadies on Tuesday as geopolitical tensions rise in the Middle East, while housing data misses estimates and US Industrial Production decelerates. The GBP/USD trades at 1.3547. Read More...
British Pound trades lower against US Dollar after soft UK employment dataThe British Pound (GBP) is down 0.1% to near 1.3530 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Tuesday. The British currency comes under pressure after the release of the United Kingdom (UK) employment data for three months ending June. Read More...
British Pound dips to fresh lows near 1.3520 after mixed UK employment dataThe British Pound (GBP) extends its reversal against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday as June’s UK unemployment data fails to convince investors in an already risk-off market, as tensions in the Middle East rise. The GBP/USD trades at 1.3522 at the time of writing, following rejection at the 1.3570 area on Monday. Read More...
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In comparison to the U.S. dollar, the euro has a stronger monetary policy backdrop. According to a Reuters survey, 57 of 69 economists expected the ECB to raise its deposit rate of 2.50 percent in September, while inflation continues to be above the ECB’s target of 2 percent. Policy divergence in favor of the euro continues to increase as the expectations surrounding the Fed’s policy continue to decline.
Sterling is also benefiting from policy divergence. UK growth for the second quarter was at 0.4 percent, and the Bank of England’s Chief Economist, Huw Pill, indicated that the recent growth that was also in excess of expectations, is a good reason for policy to be tightened. Currently markets are calling for at least one additional hike by the BoE in 2026. New data on the labor market and inflation in the U.K. will be released this week that will be useful in evaluating this position.
The main issue for all three currencies is the Middle East. Renewed U.S.-Iran tensions and ongoing disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz pose risks for another energy-related inflation shock, which could once again bring expectations of tighter policy if price pressures begin to accelerate.
U.S. Dollar Index Technical Analysis: DXY Defends $99.38 Support but Remains Below Key EMAs
GBP/USD could extend its three-month high if stronger UK jobs data boosts BoE rate expectations, while softer US employment keeps the US Dollar under pressure. The Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate edged higher at the start of this week, striking its best levels since mid-May amid a further dovish repricing of Federal Reserve interest rate expectations.
At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at around $1.3556. Up around 0.2% from Monday’s opening levels.
Latest — Exchange Rates:
Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD): 1.356146 (+0.21%)
Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD): 1.158915 (+0.16%)
Dollar to Yen (USD/JPY): 159.36153 (+0.03%)
DAILY RECAP:
The US Dollar (USD) stumbled on Monday, reaching fresh multi-month lows as investors continued to unwind expectations for further Federal Reserve interest rate hikes.
A recent run of softer-than-expected US economic releases has increasingly challenged expectations the Fed will tighten monetary policy in the coming months, with the majority of investors no longer pricing in a September rate hike.
The latest setback came from Friday’s US retail sales figures, which revealed an unexpected 0.6% contraction in consumer spending during July, the first decline in retail sales for nine months.
The disappointing retail sales figures followed a series of other lacklustre releases, including a much weaker-than-expected July payrolls report and relatively soft inflation data, that have also weakened Fed bets in recent weeks.
While able to tick higher against the US Dollar, the Pound (GBP) was left to trade in a narrow range against the bulk of its other peers on Monday, with GBP investors reluctant to alter their positions in the currency ahead of several UK economic releases.
Trading is set to pick up considerably as the week unfolds, starting with official labour market statistics and inflation figures in the first half of the session, before attention shifts to retail sales and flash PMI numbers towards the tail end of the week.
Investors will pay particularly close attention to the employment and CPI reports, which are likely to steer the Bank of England's (BoE) interest rate outlook heading into autumn.
Should the data reveal enduring economic resilience and persistent underlying price pressures, renewed expectations of BoE policy tightening could give Sterling a meaningful lift.
Near-Term GBP/USD Forecast: Will a Stronger UK Jobs Market Boost Sterling? Turning to Tuesday's session, the UK's data glut begins with the publication of the UK's latest jobs report.
The data could extend the upside in the Pound to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate as consensus forecasts predict an acceleration in employment growth will have pulled unemployment lower in June.
That said, any gains for Sterling could prove limited if an accompanying moderation in wage growth dampens market appetite for further central bank rate increases.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar may face further headwinds if the latest ADP employment data, reports that US employment growth continued to slow through the last week of July.
Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.
GBP/USD started a decent increase and climbed above 1.3520. A bullish trend line is forming with support near 1.3510 on the 4-hour chart. Bitcoin could continue to face heavy resistance near $64,650 and $65,500. EUR/USD gained traction and cleared the 1.1580 resistance. GBP/USD Technical Analysis The British Pound found support near 1.3440 against the US Dollar. GBP/USD started another increase above the 1.3500 resistance zone.
Looking at the 4-hour chart, the pair settled above 1.3520, the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour), and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour). The pair even attempted to settle above the 1.3565 resistance zone.
On the upside, the pair is now facing a major hurdle at 1.3580. The next major resistance might be 1.3620. A close above 1.3620 could start another steady increase. In the stated case, the bulls could aim for a move to 1.3700.
Any further gains might open the door for a test of 1.3750. If there is a fresh decline, the pair might find bids near 1.3500. There is also a bullish trend line forming with support at 1.3510. The next major support could be near 1.3450 and the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour).
The main support might be 1.3420 and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour). A downside break and close below 1.3420 might send the pair toward 1.3315. Any more losses could open the door for a test of 1.3250.
Looking at Bitcoin, the price must settle above $64,650 and $65,500 to decrease bearish pressure and start a steady increase.
Upcoming Key Economic Events:
UK Claimant Count Change for July 2026 – Forecast 11.2K, versus 6.7K previous. UK ILO Unemployment Rate for June 2026 (3M) – Forecast 4.8%, versus 4.9% previous.
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The Pound Sterling (GBP) registers modest gains of 0.14% on Monday against the US Dollar (USD) as investors digest softer-than-expected US inflation data and brace for the release of crucial UK jobs and inflation data. The GBP/USD pair trades at 1.3552 after hitting a three-month high of 1.3571. Read More...
GBP/USD Price Forecast: Bulls press toward 1.3600 as uptrend strengthensGBP/USD edges higher on Monday as fading expectations of an imminent Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike drag the US Dollar (USD) lower and lift the British Pound (GBP) to its highest level since May 12. At the time of writing, the pair trades around 1.3555, building on its late-July recovery after clearing several key moving averages. Read More...
British Pound hits three-month highs at 1.3570 amid generalised US Dollar weaknessThe British Pound (GBP) extends gains for the second consecutive day on Monday, as investors cut back US Dollar (USD) long positions, amid a dovish repricing of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy. The pair has reached levels above Friday’s peak at 1.3561 to hit three-month highs at 1.3571 so far. Read More...
Key Points:EUR/USD tested multi-week highs as traders remained bullish. USD/CAD moved away from session lows as traders reacted to inflation data from Canada. USD/JPY remained stuck below the key resistance level as traders focused on Japan's GDP Growth Rate report.
EUR/USD
+0.13%
EUR/USD ForecastGBP/USD
+0.11%
GBP/USD ForecastUSD/CAD
-0.03%
USD/CAD ForecastUSD/JPY
+0.09%
USD/JPY Forecast
U.S. Dollar Tested New Lows
DXY 170826 4h Chart U.S. Dollar Index is losing some ground as traders reduce bets on hawkish Fed. Traders also focus on the NAHB Housing Market Index report for August. The report indicated that NAHB Housing Market Index increased from 34 in July to 35 in August, compared to analyst forecast of 33.
Currently, U.S. Dollar Index is trying to settle below the support level at 99.25 – 99.40. In case U.S. Dollar Index manages to settle below the 99.25 level, it will head towards the next support, which is located in the 98.60 – 98.75 range.
EUR/USD Tests Resistance At 1.1600 – 1.1615
EUR/USD 170826 4h Chart EUR/USD gained ground as traders focused on general weakness of the American currency. Treasury yields were mixed. The yield of 2-year Treasuries pulled back below the 4.17% level, while the yield of 10-year Treasuries settled above 4.70%.
The nearest resistance level for EUR/USD is located in the 1.1600 – 1.1615 range. in case EUR/USD manages to settle above the 1.1615 level, it will head towards the next resistance at 1.1685 – 1.1700. RSI has recently moved back into moderate territory, so there is plenty of room to gain momentum in case the right catalysts emerge.
GBP/USD Tests Multi-Week Highs GBP/USD 170826 4h Chart GBP/USD moved higher as traders remained bullish at the start of the week. Traders bet that Fed will leave the federal funds rate unchanged at the next meeting in September.
From the technical point of view, GBP/USD continues its attempts to settle above the resistance level at 1.3550 – 1.3565. If GBP/USD climbs above the 1.3565 level, it will head towards the next resistance, which is located in the 1.3635 – 1.3650 range.
USD/CAD Moves Away From Session Lows As Traders Focus On Canada’s Inflation Data USD/CAD 170826 4h Chart USD/CAD attempts to rebound from multi-week lows as traders react to inflation data from Canada. Inflation Rate increased from 2.8% in June to 3% in July, compared to analyst forecast of 2.9%. Core Inflation Rate grew from 2.1% to 2.3%, compared to analyst consensus of 2.2%.
If USD/CAD settles back above the 1.3880 level, it will head towards the nearest resistance at 1.3920 – 1.3935. On the support side, a successful test of the support at 1.3825 – 1.3840 will open the way to the test of the next support level at 1.3735 – 1.3750.
USD/JPY Is Mostly Flat As Japan’s GDP Growth Rate Misses Estimates
USD/JPY 170826 4h Chart USD/JPY remains stuck below the key resistance level at 159.50 – 160.00 as traders react to Japan’s GDP Growth Rate report. The report showed that GDP Growth Rate was +0.3% in the second quarter, compared to analyst forecast of +0.5%.
Traders are focused on Fed policy outlook and are worried about potential interventions from the BoJ. The Japanese yen is fundamentally weak due to the difference in interest rates, but recent interventions have made traders cautious.
If USD/JPY climbs above the 160.00 level, it will move towards the next resistance level at 161.50 – 162.00. A move above the 162.00 level will push USD/JPY towards the 164.00 level.
On the support side, a move below the 50 MA at 158.79 will open the way to the test of the nearest support level at 157.50 – 158.00.
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Vladimir is an independent trader, with over 18 years of experience in the financial markets. His expertise spans a wide range of instruments like stocks, futures, forex, indices, and commodities, forecasting both long-term and short-term market movements.
In the short-term forex markets, we have seen a bit of US dollar soften a touch. At this point, the markets continue to see volatility.
In this article:EUR/USD
+0.19%
EUR/USD ForecastUSD/CAD
-0.17%
USD/CAD ForecastGBP/USD
+0.13%
GBP/USD Forecast In the short-term forex markets, the euro has risen a bit in early trading on Monday. It is starting to pull back just a touch, but it looks supported to me.
Now, I’m not massively bullish this market, but I recognize that we are starting to see some softness in the U.S. dollar. I’ll be watching right around 1.1550 for signs of support to take advantage of, as we’ve had a nice bottoming pattern from a longer-term consolidation area.
I recognize that right around 1.1650 there could be some resistance, so short-term bounce play might be what I’m looking to do here, all things being equal.
USD/CAD The U.S. dollar has fallen against the Canadian dollar. I am particularly interested in the 1.39 level on any bounce for signs of exhaustion, assuming that the U.S. dollar continues to lose strength.
There are reports out there in the media right now about a potential ceasefire between the United States and Iran. We’ll see what influence that has on the market. There was an initial jolt of risk appetite coming back into the market that seems to have been abated.
GBP/USD The British pound against the U.S. dollar is another one I’m watching. On the hourly chart, we’re forming a rising wedge. A pullback toward the 1.3525 area might be interesting for value. It is also the measured move of that pattern if it does break.
The British pound has been one of the better performers against the dollar for a while, so when I find myself in a situation where I’d rather buy the dollar, I actually avoid this pair. But selling the dollar, it has performed fairly well in comparison to some of its contemporaries.
We did just recently break a swing high at the 1.3550 level, so that would be a retest, something worth watching. We’ll see. If I get that opportunity to buy it a little cheaper, I might just do so.
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Chris is a proprietary trader with more than 20 years of experience across various markets, including currencies, indices and commodities. As a senior analyst at FXEmpire since the website’s early days, he offers readers advanced market perspectives to navigate today’s financial landscape with confidence.
