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GBP/JPY rebounds on Tuesday as the Japanese Yen (JPY) loses momentum following its sharp rise since the start of the month. At the time of writing, the cross trades around 208.90 after briefly falling to 207.10, its lowest level since December 2025.

Some profit-taking in the Yen, combined with oversold Relative Strength Index (RSI) conditions in GBP/JPY, appears to be helping the cross rebound on Tuesday. Higher Oil prices also add pressure on the Japanese currency. Japan relies heavily on imported energy, particularly from the Middle East.

The Yen’s recent rally has been driven by expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will speed up its monetary policy tightening, prompting traders to unwind Yen-funded carry trades and bring capital back to Japan.

Better-than-initially-estimated Japanese Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data released earlier in the day reinforced expectations of a BoJ rate increase but provided little support to the Yen. The central bank is widely expected to raise interest rates at its September 17-18 meeting.

On the UK side, the Bank of England (BoE) is expected to leave interest rates unchanged for a sixth consecutive meeting on September 17. Attention now turns to the BoE Monetary Policy Report hearing later on Tuesday. Governor Andrew Bailey and other Monetary Policy Committee members will testify before lawmakers and traders will look for fresh clues about the interest rate path.

Technical Analysis

On the daily chart, GBP/JPY keeps its bearish near-term bias as it trades below the 50-day, 100-day and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs). However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 25 indicates oversold conditions and helps explain Tuesday’s corrective rebound. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) stays below zero, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) rises toward 28, suggesting the broader downtrend remains strong.

On the upside, the psychological 210 mark acts as immediate resistance. A break above this level could open the door toward the 200-day SMA at 213, followed by the 100-day SMA at 214. Further resistance is seen at 217.50 and 219.50.

On the downside, Tuesday’s low near 207.10 provides immediate support. A break below this level could expose the psychological 205.00 mark. Buyers would need to push GBP/JPY firmly above the 210.00-215.00 region to ease the bearish pressure and support a stronger recovery.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Japanese Yen Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.09%-0.01%-0.03%-0.07%0.08%0.63%0.26%EUR-0.09%-0.10%-0.07%-0.11%-0.02%0.54%0.17%GBP0.00%0.10%0.00%-0.07%0.07%0.63%0.28%JPY0.03%0.07%0.00%-0.05%0.10%0.66%0.30%CAD0.07%0.11%0.07%0.05%0.14%0.70%0.35%AUD-0.08%0.02%-0.07%-0.10%-0.14%0.58%0.20%NZD-0.63%-0.54%-0.63%-0.66%-0.70%-0.58%-0.36%CHF-0.26%-0.17%-0.28%-0.30%-0.35%-0.20%0.36% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).

The GBP/JPY tanks amid speculation of intervention by Japanese authorities in the FX markets, driven by a rate check by Tokyo. The cross-pair drops more than 300 pips, trades at 210.92, down by more than 1.40%.

GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Technical OutlookOn Thursday, GBP/JPY extended its losses, clearing the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 213.04 on its way towards the 210.00 area, leaving behind the 212.00 and 211.00 psychological levels.

Momentum shifted bearishly, as seen in the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which turned oversold, indicating that the pair may be susceptible to a mean-reversion move. This is possible if the RSI gets above the 30 level.

For a bullish recovery, the GBP/JPY must clear the 212.00 area ahead of challenging the 200-day SMA at 213.06. If cleared, the next area of interest in play will be the 100-day SMA at 215.04.

Conversely, the path of least resistance is for GBP/JPY to dive below 210.00, with a move to the March 31 swing low of 209.64 on the cards. On further weakness, the next area of support would be the 209.00 milestone.

GBP/JPY Price Chart – Daily

GBP/JPY daily chart Japanese Yen Price This week The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies this week. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.36%0.07%-2.45%-0.85%-0.58%0.70%-0.05%EUR0.36%0.44%-2.09%-0.49%-0.22%1.02%0.33%GBP-0.07%-0.44%-2.62%-0.93%-0.67%0.57%-0.20%JPY2.45%2.09%2.62%1.56%1.90%3.10%2.34%CAD0.85%0.49%0.93%-1.56%0.26%1.53%0.73%AUD0.58%0.22%0.67%-1.90%-0.26%1.25%0.47%NZD-0.70%-1.02%-0.57%-3.10%-1.53%-1.25%-0.77%CHF0.05%-0.33%0.20%-2.34%-0.73%-0.47%0.77% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).

GBP/JPY trades flattish for the third straight day as buyers have failed to decisively crack the 217.00 level, which could open the door to further upside. This pushed the cross-pair to the mid-point of the trading range of 216.08-216.85,

GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlookThe daily chart shows that GBP/JPY is neutral-biased, even though prices are above the 50-, 100-, and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), each at 215.96, 215.09, and 212.95, respectively.

Momentum is measured by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which also suggests that the GBP/JPY is bullish, but it has faded as the index approaches the 50-neutral level. Hence, the cross-pair is poised for sideways action.

For a bullish continuation, the first resistance is 217.00. A breach of the latter will expose the July 9 high at 218.01, followed by the yearly high of 219.61.

On the other hand, a breach of the 50-day SMA at 215.96 opens the path to challenge the 100-day SMA ahead of 215.00. Below the next support is the 214.00 psychological level.

GBP/JPY Price Chart – Daily

GBP/JPY daily chart Japanese Yen FAQs The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.

One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.

Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.

The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.

The GBP/JPY advanced over 0.72%, refreshing a 14-day high of 216.90, with buyers eyeing a breakout above 217.00, which could open the door to a retest of the yearly highs hit in mid-July. The pair trades at 216.73 after bouncing off the daily low of 215.04.

GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Technical OutlookThe technical picture seems more constructive, with GBP/JPY clearing the previous week's high of 216.22, opening the door to further upside. Momentum finally edged higher, as seen in the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which remained flatlined during the last two trading sessions.

Upwards, the first resistance is the 217.00 mark. A breach of the latter will expose the July 10 high of 218.69, ahead of the July 15 high at 219.61.

Conversely, if GBP/JPY slides below 216.00, this paves the way to test the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 215.60. Below lies the 100-day SMA at 214.81, followed by the 200-day SMA at 212.51.

GBP/JPY Price Chart – Daily

GBP/JPY daily chart Japanese Yen FAQs The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.

One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.

Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.

The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.

The GBP/JPY consolidates at familiar levels on Tuesday, virtually unchanged near 216.00, with the cross-pair seesawing within the 215.85-216.22 range, as neither buyers nor sellers are able to clear key resistance/support levels during the day.

GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Technical OutlookThe GBP/JPY is neutral to upward biased, though the last intervention between US and Japanese authorities prevented investors from opening fresh long or short bets. Bullish momentum has faded even though the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains bullish. Nevertheless, as it turned flat, a potential consolidation lies ahead.

Upwards, the first key resistance is 217.00, followed by a downward resistance trendline near 217.50/65. Above this area, up next is the July 9 high of the day (HOD) at 218.01.

On the flip side, a drop below the 50-day SMA at 215.56 opens the door to further downside. Below lies the 100-day SMA of  214.71, ahead of the 200-day SMA at 212.35.

GBP/JPY Price Chart – Daily

GBP/JPY daily chart Japanese Yen Price This week The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies this week. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.09%-0.07%0.18%0.16%0.05%0.26%0.03%EUR0.09%0.17%0.28%0.25%0.10%0.35%0.13%GBP0.07%-0.17%0.17%0.10%-0.07%0.18%-0.09%JPY-0.18%-0.28%-0.17%-0.01%-0.19%0.06%-0.17%CAD-0.16%-0.25%-0.10%0.01%-0.16%0.08%-0.17%AUD-0.05%-0.10%0.07%0.19%0.16%0.25%-0.01%NZD-0.26%-0.35%-0.18%-0.06%-0.08%-0.25%-0.27%CHF-0.03%-0.13%0.09%0.17%0.17%0.01%0.27% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).

The GBP/JPY cross-pair is poised to finish Monday’s session with gains of over 0.14% as traders prepare for the beginning of Tuesday’s Asian session. The cross-pair has climbed above the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 215.52, often seen as a breakout that opens the door to further upside. The pair trades slightly below 216.00 at the time of writing.

GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Technical OutlookThe GBP/JPY refreshed a ten-day high of 216.16 but is failing to hold above 216.00. Nevertheless, momentum has shifted upward, as indicated by the Relative Strength Index (RSI). The RSI, although bullish, turned flat, an indication of further consolidation, before the next leg up forms.

If GBP/JPY rises above 216.00, expect a move towards a downward resistance trendline near 217.50/65. Above this area, up next is 217.00, followed by the July 9 high of the day (HOD) at 218.01.

Conversely, if GBP/JPY tumbles below the 50-day SMA, a move towards the 100-day SMA of 214.65 is on the cards. A breach of the latter will expose the 200-day SMA at 212.32.

GBP/JPY Price Chart – Daily

GBP/JPY daily chart
Japanese Yen FAQs

The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.

One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.

Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.

The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.

The GBP/JPY holds firm on Wednesday at around 215.00, as neither buyers nor sellers are reluctant to open fresh directional bets amid fears of renewed intervention in the FX markets by US and Japanese authorities to propel the Yen. At the time of writing, the cross-pair hovers below the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), barely unchanged.

GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlookGBP/JPY faces significant resistance levels that are capping its advance, resulting in sideways trading. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), remains flat at the neutral level of 50, suggesting a lack of strong conviction from either buyers or sellers to drive the pair beyond key levels.

On the upside, the initial key resistance is the 50-day SMA at 215.43, followed by 216.00. Breaking this will open the way to the 216.50 level and, subsequently, the 217.00 psychological level.

Downwards, GBP/JPY's first support level is at 215.00, followed by the 100-day SMA at 214.55. Beneath lies the 200-day SMA at 212.12,  above the August 7 low of 211.47.

GBP/JPY Price Chart – Daily

GBP/JPY daily chart Japanese Yen FAQs The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.

One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.

Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.

The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.

The GBP/JPY ended Tuesday’s session unchanged at 215.17 as buyers remained reluctant to test the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 215.43, seen as the first resistance level on its way to re-test yearly peaked at around 219.61.

GBP/JPY Price Forcast: Technical outlookPrice action suggests the GBP/JPY is facing key resistance that could cap the advance, which could open the door for sideways trading. Further confirmation of this, is the Relative Strength Index (RSI): The RSI shifted flat exactly at the 50-neutral level, an indication that neither buyers nor sellers are fully committed to push the cross above or below familiar levels.

On the upside, the first key resistance is the 50-day SMA, followed by the 216.00 mark. A breach of the latter will expose the 216.50 figure, followed by the 217.00 psychological mark

Downwards, the GBP/JPY first support would be the 215.00 milestone, followed by the 100-day SMA at 214.53. Below this, sits the 200-day SMA at 217.05 ahed  the August 7 low of the day (LOD) at  211.47.

GBP/JPY Price Chart – Daily

GBP/JPY daily chart Japanese Yen FAQs The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.

One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.

Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.

The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.

The British Pound retreats against the Japanese Yen, down about 0.24%, as the Yen is poised to end the week on a higher note. However, GBP/JPY is poised to finish the week with minimal gains, trading at 212.64.

GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlookThe GBP/JPY trades sideways, though slightly tilted to the downside, following an intervention in the FX markets by US and Japanese authorities. Worth noting that after soft US jobs data, Japanese Finance Minister Katayama said she agreed with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent that FX markets had been affected by moves rather than fundamentals.

This pushed GBP/JPY to the day's low of 211.47, slightly below the 200-day SMA of 211.91, but buyers reclaimed the latter and surpassed 212.00. After the rebound, the cross is about to end Friday’s session near the highs, but it will face key resistance at the 100-day SMA at 214.48, followed by the 50-day SMA at 215.42.

In the event of further losses, the first GBP/JPY support is 212.00. Below the next support is the 200-day SMA at 211.91, followed by 211.00. Beneath emerges the August 3 low of 209.58.

GBP/JPY Price Chart – Daily

GBP/JPY daily chart Japanese Yen Price This week The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies this week. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the British Pound.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.11%-0.02%0.25%-0.50%-0.42%0.10%0.13%EUR0.11%0.08%0.38%-0.38%-0.18%0.20%0.25%GBP0.02%-0.08%-0.09%-0.48%-0.31%0.11%0.14%JPY-0.25%-0.38%0.09%-0.68%-0.52%-0.06%-0.04%CAD0.50%0.38%0.48%0.68%0.17%0.64%0.62%AUD0.42%0.18%0.31%0.52%-0.17%0.40%0.44%NZD-0.10%-0.20%-0.11%0.06%-0.64%-0.40%0.04%CHF-0.13%-0.25%-0.14%0.04%-0.62%-0.44%-0.04% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).

GBP/JPY on Tuesday as the Japanese Yen (JPY) gives back part of its recent rally, which was driven by coordinated intervention from Tokyo and Washington.

At the time of writing, the cross trades around 211.55, up 0.20% on the day.

Yen support from US intervention seen as limited and time-buyingAnalysts at MUFG/BTMU argue that the recent bout of joint FX intervention offers only partial and temporary relief for the Yen. They stress that, "on balance, we expect US intervention to support the yen to remain relatively small in scale," even if coordinated action with Japan helps steady the currency in the near term. In their view, "while joint intervention may prove more effective at helping to provide support for the yen in the near-term, we still believe that it can only buy time." MUFG/BTMU conclude that, ultimately, "there will need to be a change in fundamentals as well to encourage a sustainable reversal of the yen weakening trend that has been in place over the last five years."

Despite Tuesday’s rebound, the near-term technical picture for GBP/JPY has turned bearish. The recent sell-off pushed the cross decisively below the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) for the first time since April 2025, with the pair now testing the 200-day SMA.

Technical analysis

On the daily chart, GBP/JPY trades below the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 214.45 and hovers around the 200-day SMA at 211.75, keeping the near-term bias tilted to the downside.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 30 hints at oversold conditions and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains deeply negative, reinforcing selling pressure.

On the topside, initial resistance is located at the 100-day SMA at 214.45, followed by the horizontal barrier at 216.50, with a stronger cap emerging near 220.

On the downside, the 200-day SMA at 211.75 marks first support ahead of the 210 level, with deeper floors at 207 and 205, where bears could start to lose momentum if the RSI slips further into oversold territory.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Japanese Yen Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.06%-0.08%0.14%0.10%-0.44%-0.22%-0.15%EUR0.06%-0.04%0.22%0.15%-0.41%-0.19%-0.08%GBP0.08%0.04%0.28%0.21%-0.35%-0.13%-0.04%JPY-0.14%-0.22%-0.28%-0.06%-0.60%-0.41%-0.19%CAD-0.10%-0.15%-0.21%0.06%-0.54%-0.34%-0.24%AUD0.44%0.41%0.35%0.60%0.54%0.22%0.30%NZD0.22%0.19%0.13%0.41%0.34%-0.22%0.10%CHF0.15%0.08%0.04%0.19%0.24%-0.30%-0.10% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).

Why confirmed US-Japan intervention pushed Yen strength into the crosses instead of breaking USD/JPY below 155 What’s happening: Japan and the US jointly confirmed last week’s coordinated Yen-buying intervention, the first since 2011, and did so unusually fast, extending the Yen’s rally into Monday’s session. Yet USD/JPY stalled just above the key 155 support level as buyers emerged, and Yen strength instead squeezed into the crosses, hitting AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY, GBP/JPY, CAD/JPY and CHF/JPY hardest. Why it matters: The pattern suggests traders don’t yet believe intervention was designed to force USD/JPY meaningfully below 155, just to prevent a rapid return above 160. Whether that adjustment mechanism, squeezing carry trades in the crosses, continues, or USD/JPY eventually breaks 155 outright, is one of the more important themes to watch this week.

Also today:

Oil gapped lower again to as low as $81.55 as the US cancelled planned strikes and Trump signaled talks with Iran, though Tehran says no direct negotiations are planned yet. A week of top-tier US data begins today with ISM Manufacturing, building toward Friday’s non-farm payrolls, which will shape the Fed’s flexibility heading into next week’s CPI report rather than settle September policy on its own. Confirmed Intervention Marks a Break From Japan’s Usual Playbook The week’s opening session was dominated by an unusually explicit display of currency cooperation between Washington and Tokyo. Both governments confirmed they had jointly intervened to support the Yen last week, marking the first coordinated operation since 2011. More striking than the intervention itself was the speed of the confirmation. Rather than adhering to Japan’s long-standing strategy of refusing to comment on intervention, officials on both sides moved quickly to acknowledge the operation, reinforcing the message that they stand ready to act again if necessary. The shift suggests policymakers are placing greater value on intervention credibility than on strategic ambiguity.

USD/JPY Stalls at 155 as Yen Strength Squeezes Into the Crosses That message initially extended last week’s Yen rally, pushing USD/JPY lower in early trading. Yet the decline stalled just ahead of the key 155 support area, where buyers emerged before the pair could test the level decisively. The price action is notable because it suggests traders remain reluctant to challenge what has become an important technical level. For now, the market still appears to believe the objective of last week’s intervention was to prevent another rapid return above 160 rather than engineer a sustained move below 155.

Instead of forcing USD/JPY through support, demand for the Japanese currency found another outlet. Yen strength was effectively squeezed into the crosses, with high-yielding currencies bearing the brunt of the adjustment. AUD/JPY led losses, followed by NZD/JPY, while GBP/JPY, CAD/JPY and CHF/JPY also declined sharply. The pattern points to a broader reduction in Yen-funded carry trades rather than outright Dollar weakness. Whether this remains the preferred adjustment mechanism, or whether USD/JPY eventually breaks below 155, will be one of the more interesting themes to watch in the days ahead.

Crosses Under Pressure AUD/JPY: led losses among Yen crosses NZD/JPY: second-sharpest decline GBP/JPY, CAD/JPY, CHF/JPY: also declined sharply

Oil Gaps Lower Again as Diplomatic Signals Conflict Oil markets also began the week with another sharp gap lower. Brent crude, which closed above $90 last week, briefly fell to as low as $81.55 before stabilizing around the $83 area. As in recent weeks, the move reflected hopes of easing tensions in the Middle East after the US cancelled planned military strikes over the weekend. President Donald Trump said negotiations with Iran would begin on Monday, again raising expectations of a diplomatic breakthrough.

Tehran, however, continued to offer a far more cautious assessment. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei said there were no immediate plans for direct negotiations with Washington, reiterating that discussions remain limited to Omani mediation over the Strait of Hormuz. The conflicting narratives have become a familiar feature of this crisis. Markets appear reluctant to react aggressively to political statements alone, preferring to wait for tangible evidence of changes in shipping conditions or energy flows before reassessing geopolitical risk.

A Week Packed With Top-Tier US Data Attention now shifts firmly to a week packed with top-tier US economic data. ISM Manufacturing kicks things off today, followed by ISM Services, ADP employment and Friday’s non-farm payrolls. Fed funds futures continue to price a little over a 60% probability of a September rate hike, indicating markets still lean toward further tightening but without strong conviction.

That makes this week’s data particularly important, not because they are likely to determine September policy on their own, but because they will shape how much flexibility the Federal Reserve has heading into next week’s CPI report. A strong run of data would reinforce confidence in the economy and leave policymakers well positioned to tighten again should inflation remain sticky. Conversely, softer readings would raise the bar for another hike.

This Week’s US Data Calendar Today: ISM Manufacturing This week: ISM Services, ADP employment Friday: Non-farm payrolls Fed funds futures: a little over 60% probability of a September hike Currency Performance Today For the day so far, Yen is currently the strongest, followed by Euro, and then Dollar. Aussie is the worst, followed by Kiwi, and the Swiss Franc. Sterling and Loonie are positioning in the middle.

Related Coverage Yen & Precious Metals Deep Dives Read the deeper dive into why Japan and the US broke decades of strategic ambiguity to confirm intervention this fast, and what holding above 155 would signal: Why Did Japan and the US Confirm Intervention So Fast? Can USD/JPY Hold 155?. See why Gold has stopped reacting to oil, yields and the Dollar, and what could finally break its trading range: Why Gold Ignores Oil, Yields and Dollar, and What Could Finally Break the Range. Global Manufacturing PMI Roundup Read why the UK’s softer PMI headline masks the fastest factory output growth in almost two years: UK PMI Manufacturing at Four-Month Low, but Faster Output Growth Points to Resilient Recovery. See why Eurozone factory output hit a 52-month high, and why the recovery still isn’t being driven by fresh demand: Eurozone PMI Manufacturing at Three-Month High, but Recovery Still Lacks Fresh Demand. Read how AI and semiconductor demand are offsetting Middle East-related cost pressures in Japan’s factory sector: Japan PMI Manufacturing Finalized at 54.5, AI Demand Offsets Middle East Headwinds. See why Australia’s manufacturing rebound to a six-month high still comes with a fragility warning: Australia Manufacturing PMI Finalizes at Six-Month High, Yet Inflation and Supply Risks Limit Confidence. Read the three encouraging trends inside China’s slower manufacturing expansion: China’s Manufacturing Expansion Slowed, but Three Trends Offer Encouragement. Inflation Data See why Swiss inflation’s slip to 0.4% is concentrated in imported goods, not domestic price pressures: Swiss CPI Slips to 0.4% in July on Lower Fuel and Airfare Costs. Frequently Asked Questions Q: Why did USD/JPY stall at 155 instead of continuing lower after confirmed intervention? A: Buyers emerged just ahead of the 155 support area before the pair could test it decisively, suggesting traders remain reluctant to challenge what has become an important technical level. The market still appears to believe last week’s intervention was aimed at preventing a rapid return above 160, not at engineering a sustained move below 155.

Q: Why is Yen strength showing up in crosses like AUD/JPY instead of pushing USD/JPY lower? A: Instead of forcing USD/JPY through support, demand for the Japanese currency found another outlet in the crosses. AUD/JPY led losses, followed by NZD/JPY, GBP/JPY, CAD/JPY and CHF/JPY, a pattern that points to a broader reduction in Yen-funded carry trades rather than outright Dollar weakness.

Q: Why did Brent gap lower again despite Iran signaling no immediate direct talks with the US? A: The gap reflected hopes of easing tensions after the US cancelled planned military strikes over the weekend and President Trump said negotiations with Iran would begin Monday. Iran, however, offered a more cautious assessment, with its Foreign Ministry saying discussions remain limited to Omani mediation over the Strait of Hormuz. Markets have grown reluctant to react aggressively to political statements alone, preferring tangible evidence of changes in shipping conditions or energy flows.

Key Takeaways Confirmed intervention marks a real shift in strategy: Japan and the US jointly confirmed last week’s coordinated Yen-buying operation, the first since 2011, and did so far faster than Japan’s usual practice of strategic ambiguity. USD/JPY is defending 155, not breaking it: The pair stalled just ahead of the support zone as buyers emerged, suggesting markets see intervention’s goal as capping a return above 160, not forcing a sustained move below 155. Yen strength got squeezed into the crosses instead: AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY, GBP/JPY, CAD/JPY and CHF/JPY all fell sharply, pointing to a broader unwind of Yen-funded carry trades rather than Dollar weakness. Oil’s gap lower reflects hope, not confirmation: Brent fell as low as $81.55 on prospects of US-Iran talks, but Iran’s Foreign Ministry says no direct negotiations are planned yet, just Omani mediation, keeping the conflicting-narrative pattern intact. This week’s US data matters more for Fed flexibility than for a September verdict: ISM Manufacturing, ISM Services, ADP and Friday’s payrolls will shape how much room the Fed has heading into next week’s CPI report, with Fed funds futures currently pricing just over 60% odds of a September hike. What to Watch Next Whether USD/JPY eventually breaks below 155 or continues bleeding out through the Yen crosses is one of the week’s key technical questions. On the data side, today’s ISM Manufacturing kicks off a run of releases culminating in Friday’s non-farm payrolls, all of which will help determine how much flexibility the Fed has heading into next week’s CPI report.

ActionForex

ActionForex.com was set up back in 2004 with the aim to provide insightful analysis to forex traders, serving the trading community for two decades. We started providing only a daily and a mid-day report, now known as Action Insights. Gradually, we added a lot more in-house contents to the site. Technical Outlook section was expanded to cover more pairs. In addition to that, Top Movers, Heat Map, Pivot Point Charts and Pivot Meters, Action Bias and Volatility Charts, are tools used by traders from all over the world.

The GBP/JPY advances by over 0.30%, rising above 218.00, as risk appetite improves amid overall US Dollar weakness following the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision. The pair trades near 218.50 after hitting a low of the day (LOD) of 217.16.

GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlookThe cross-pair was headed to extend its losses after reaching a ten-day low. However, the GBP/JPY followed the direction of the GBP/USD pair after the Fed’s decision.

Momentum favours further upside as depicted in the Relative Strength Index (RSI). Hence, the path of least resistance is tilted to the upside, but a potential intervention in the FX markets by Japanese authorities could open the door for further downside.

For a bullish continuation, the first resistance for GBP/JPY would be the 219.00 psychological level. Above this area sits the confluence of the July 15 and 15 daily peaks at 219.57/61, followed by the 220.00 milestone.

On the downside, the first support is 218.00. A breach of the latter will expose the low of the day (LOD) at 217.16, followed by the April 30 daily high-turned-support at 216.60. Once hurdled, the next stop is the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 215.62.

GBP/JPY Price Chart – Daily

GBP/JPY daily chart Japanese Yen FAQs The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.

One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.

Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.

The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.

Summary:

GBP/JPY broke below 218 on Monday, trading near 217.84, pressured by UK political uncertainty and softer bond yields The wide UK-Japan rate gap still supports carry trades, but Japanese intervention fears and dovish repricing are capping gains Investors should monitor 217.50 support and 218.50 resistance while watching central-bank guidance for clearer signals on the pair’s next direction. The British pound’s strong performance against the Japanese yen in early July has moderated, with the yen seemingly turning the tables. After reaching a high near 219.61-219.70 in mid-July, the GBP/JPY pair consolidated before falling below the significant 218.00 level. By July 27, the exchange rate was trading around 217.84, reflecting broader pound weakness.

What’s Driving the Slide? Several factors seem to be lining up right now. Political shifts created fresh uncertainty, with the pound losing ground as new Prime Minister Andy Burnham took office. Markets don’t like uncertainty, and a leadership change naturally raises questions about policy direction, even before anything real shifts.

That gap, usually around 275 basis points, hasn’t gone away. What has changed is how confident the market feels about the gap widening further. Plus, persistent talk that Japanese authorities might step in to prop up the yen has kept the pair from advancing much for weeks.

Meanwhile, traders have been cutting back exposure ahead of this week’s central bank decisions. The Bank of England (BoE) will likely hold its benchmark rate at 3.75%, and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is also expected to keep its policy rate unchanged at 1%.

Oil price drops and a temporary calm in US-Iran tensions have also eased inflation worries. This, in turn, pulled UK government bond yields lower, taking away one of the Pound’s recent supports.

Is the Carry Trade Losing Its Grip? The strength of GBP/JPY in recent months was largely attributed to the significant interest rate differential between the UK and Japan. This gap made the pair attractive for carry trades, where investors borrow low-interest yen to invest in higher-yielding pound assets.

That gap, historically estimated near 275 basis points, hasn’t disappeared. What has changed is the market’s confidence in how much further that gap might widen, and lingering speculation that Japanese authorities could step in to support the yen has kept a lid on the pair’s advances for weeks.

At the same time, reports of BoJ officials being open to faster rate increases, combined with ongoing speculation about possible currency intervention, have intermittently supported the yen.

Both the BoE and BoJ were widely expected to keep rates steady at their late-July meetings. This limited the chance of a sudden policy split that would drastically change the pair’s medium-term path. So, the current dip looks more like a correction after a strong run, rather than the start of a long downturn.

How Should Investors Position? Considering the current political uncertainty, cautious central bank outlooks, and reduced carry trade appeal, adopting a defensive investment approach appears prudent for the short term. Investors should closely monitor the Bank of England and Bank of Japan announcements this week, as any unexpected policy shifts could lead to significant repricing of the GBP/JPY pair.

A sustained move below 218.00, confirmed by a break under 217.50, could increase bearish pressure towards 216.60 and 215.00. Conversely, a recovery above 219.00 would support the possibility of testing previous highs.

Is the UK-Japan rate gap still supporting the pair?

Yes, though intervention fears and reduced confidence in further widening have weakened its usual carry-trade support.

What should investors focus on this week?

The BoE and BoJ policy decisions, both expected to hold rates, but any surprise could move the pair sharply.

GBP/JPY holds firm on Wednesday, with the cross-pair trading above the 218.00 figure, as sellers seem to have the upper hand, after a break of a key support trendline, which could open the door for further losses. At the time of writing, the cross trades at 218.16, down 0.05%.

GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlookAfter reaching a yearly high of 219.61, GBP/JPY retreated 150 pips to the current exchange rate, opening the door for further downside.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains bullish, but it is aiming lower, approaching the 50-neutral level, which could open the door to further downside. However, the market structure suggests that the downtrend stays intact.

For a bearish reversal, if GBP/JPY drops below the July 21 daily low of 217.53. A breach of the latter will expose the April 30 high of 216.60, followed by the 216.00 mark. Below, the next support would be the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 215.09, followed by the 100-day SMA at 214.12.

Conversely, if GBP/JPY reaches 219.00, this opens the door to challenge the year-to-date (YTD) high at 219.61, followed by the 220.00 psychological level.

GBP/JPY Price Chart – Daily

GBP/JPY daily chart Japanese Yen Price This week The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies this week. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.15%0.61%0.51%0.51%-0.41%0.32%0.76%EUR-0.15%0.46%0.28%0.37%-0.56%0.17%0.61%GBP-0.61%-0.46%-0.17%-0.11%-1.01%-0.29%0.19%JPY-0.51%-0.28%0.17%0.09%-0.86%-0.20%0.37%CAD-0.51%-0.37%0.11%-0.09%-0.87%-0.31%0.30%AUD0.41%0.56%1.01%0.86%0.87%0.73%1.21%NZD-0.32%-0.17%0.29%0.20%0.31%-0.73%0.48%CHF-0.76%-0.61%-0.19%-0.37%-0.30%-1.21%-0.48% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).

USD/JPY has finally broken higher after weeks of compression, with easing bearish sentiment towards the Japanese yen adding fuel to the rally. While the US dollar led the move, the technical backdrop also favours further upside for GBP/JPY, although crude oil prices remain a key variable for CAD/JPY bears.

Source: LSEG

View related analysis:

US Dollar Bulls Lose Momentum, Commodity FX Defies Positioning | COT Report Australian Dollar Outlook: AUD/USD Bulls Hold the Edge Ahead of Jobs Data Nasdaq Could Look to KOSPI for Directional Clues Beyond Earnings Canadian Dollar Slides as Soft CPI and Trump Tariffs Lift USD/CAD USD/JPY Leads as Japanese Yen Weakness Keeps GBP/JPY and CAD/JPY in Focus It only seemed a matter of time before volatility erupted on USD/JPY, given the compression pattern beneath its 39-year high. Momentum ultimately broke to the upside, helped by a strong session for the US dollar amid the latest flare-up in Middle East tensions.

As noted in this week’s COT report, net-short exposure to the Japanese yen has moved away from a sentiment extreme. That removes some pressure from bearish yen positions and gives the USD/JPY breakout more breathing room. The question now is whether other currencies, such as the British pound or Canadian dollar could also take advantage of the weaker yen.

Source: CFTC (COT), LSEG

For traders wanting a deeper understanding of futures positioning, I’ve also published a guide on how to read and interpret weekly COT data in forex markets.

USD/JPY Tests Trendline Resistance After Breakout Regular readers will know I am not an advocate of trendlines, but I concede they deserve attention from time to time. In this case, a trendline projected from the January high coincides with Tuesday's high, making it a valid interim resistance level. It is also one that could break, given the strength of the move out of the compression pattern.

The monthly R1 pivot (163.72) and 165.30 may be the next resistance levels for bulls if the trendline breaks. That said, prices appear stretched on the 1-hour chart, while bearish RSI divergences have formed in overbought territory, raising the potential for a near-term pullback. Bulls could look to buy dips within Tuesday's range, with 163 potentially providing support.

Source: ICE, TradingView

GBP/JPY Bulls Eye 219 as British Pound Holds the Advantage The GBP/JPY uptrend on the daily chart speaks for itself, with bullish momentum accelerating from the June low. Prices have retraced to the 10-day EMA and the monthly R2 pivot, while Tuesday's wide-legged doji has caught my eye as it hints at a swing low forming within a strong uptrend.

Price action on the 1-hour chart appears corrective, given the overlapping nature of the decline. Moreover, elevated volumes accompanied the swing low, reinforcing my suspicion of bullish accumulation above 217.50. GBP/JPY is now attempting to form a higher low around the 218.00 handle and the weekly pivot point.

Ultimately, my near-term bias for the British pound against the Japanese yen remains bullish while prices hold above Tuesday's low, with a move to 219.00 as the minimum upside target. Note the July 2007 low at 219.036 and the 219.61 high as additional resistance levels ahead of the weekly R1 pivot just below 220.00.

Source: ICE, TradingView

CAD/JPY Reversal Pattern Faces Crude Oil Headwind The daily chart shows an evening star pattern (a three-bar bearish reversal) forming around the 116.00 handle, warning that a top may be in place. Tuesday's small bullish inside day represents a lacklustre attempt by bulls to reclaim lost ground, and the fact it closed around the monthly R1 pivot suggests CAD/JPY could be gearing up for another leg lower.

However, rising crude oil prices are a fly in the ointment for CAD/JPY bears. As a major oil exporter, Canada typically benefits from higher crude oil prices, which can underpin the Canadian dollar against the Japanese yen. If crude oil continues to rally, it could support CAD/JPY, or at least make life more difficult for bears. Conversely, if Middle East tensions ease and crude oil prices retreat, it could pave the way for the next leg lower in CAD/JPY.

A break below the weekly pivot point (115.31) would bring the weekly S1 level and monthly pivot point into focus near 114.50.

Source: ICE, TradingView

View the full economic calendar

-- Written by Matt Simpson

Follow Matt on Twitter @cLeverEdge

GBP/JPY wavers around 218.50, with bears contained above previous highs at 218.00.

The Pound picks uop across the board with markets awaiting Andrew Burnham's nomination as next PM.

The British Pound (GBP) is trading practically flat against the Japanese Yen (JPY) on Monday, with the GBP/JPY pair wavering around 218.50, holding comfortably above previous highs at the 218.00 area, and with last week’s long.term high at 219.63 within a short distance.

The Pound Sterling remains moderately bid with investors bracing for the nomination of former Mayor of Manchester, Andy Burnham, as the next Prime Minister. Burnham pledged in an interview with The Times newspaper a 10-year plan to “rewire” the UK after having assured markets that he will pursue responsible fiscal policy.

In Japan, markets are closed for the Marine Day holiday, which is keeping market volatility low and the Japanese Yen moving within tight ranges so far.

Technical Analysis: Bulls remain focused on the 219.63 high

GBP/JPY trades at 218.69, retaining a bullish near-term bias with price action supported by an ascending trendline from late June lows. The 4-hour Relative Strength Index (14) around 58 suggests underlying buying interest, while the slightly negative Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) reading hints at a shallow corrective pressure rather than a decisive reversal.

Bulls remain capped below session highs at 218.85, although the main focus remains on last week's high, at 219.63. Above here, the next target might be at the 127.2% Fibonacci extension of the July 10-15 rally, at 220.45.

On the downside, initial support is seen at the confluence between trendline support, now around 218.15, and Friday's trading floor, in the area of 218. A bearish reversal below here would expose the July 7 and 10 lows, near 216.40.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Pound Sterling Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the strongest against the Euro.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.07%-0.09%0.02%0.06%-0.24%-0.09%0.09%EUR-0.07%-0.13%-0.06%-0.03%-0.31%-0.19%0.00%GBP0.09%0.13%0.09%0.12%-0.18%-0.04%0.13%JPY-0.02%0.06%-0.09%0.05%-0.25%-0.08%0.06%CAD-0.06%0.03%-0.12%-0.05%-0.30%-0.13%0.00%AUD0.24%0.31%0.18%0.25%0.30%0.16%0.34%NZD0.09%0.19%0.04%0.08%0.13%-0.16%0.15%CHF-0.09%-0.01%-0.13%-0.06%-0.00%-0.34%-0.15% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).

GBP Talking Points: The British Pound retains relative strength, with GBP/USD setting a fresh monthly high yesterday, even as EUR/USD held lower-high resistance. GBP/JPY, however, has been in full breakout mode. I looked into this at the Tuesday webinar and the move has stretched all the way into a major Fibonacci level just below the 220 handle.

While USD bulls came back to life from mid-April through last month, GBP/USD has held up relatively well. The pair did test a fresh low in late-June but support held at a key Fibonacci level of 1.3143, and that’s where the music stopped for sellers and since then a strong bullish reversal has taken over that’s seen Cable rip for more than 400 pips into yesterday’s fresh monthly high.

This Fibonacci level carries some historical importance, as well, as the 38.2% retracement of the 2025 rally, and this came into play in August of that year to hold the lows with another instance of support, albeit messier, a couple months later.

GBP/USD Weekly Chart Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview GBP/USD On a shorter-term basis prices are pulling back from the fresh high set yesterday, and the question now is when or where a higher-low might appear. The 1.3500 handle certainly seems to be playing a role but perhaps more interesting is a spot of prior resistance, down around 1.3450 that would be an ideal spot for buyers to defend. And then below that, the 1.3390 Fibonacci level up to the 1.3400 handle. And for an ‘s3’ support, there’s a prior swing-low turned swing-high that stands out around 1.3325.

GBP/USD Four-Hour Chart Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview GBP/JPY I looked into GBP/JPY in the Tuesday webinar and at the time, the pair was set up in an ascending triangle formation. Buyers have since made a mark with a rally of more than 200 pips, and now we have price pushing into a longer-term Fibonacci level of note at 219.39 following the print of a fresh 18-year high.

GBP/JPY Monthly Chart Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview Similar to albeit with more relative strength, we have the move pulling back in a short-term counter-trend dynamic. Given the veracity of the breakout, however, we’re also  further away from any nearby possible swing points, as prior resistance is all the way down around 217.84 and for that to come into play we’d need a retracement of more than 100 pips from current market price. Ideally, for bullish continuation, buyers would remain more aggressive than that, and something like this is where Fibonacci can come into play as the recent rally has so far only given back 23.6% of the move.

The 38.2% retracement of that same move sets up as support potential, and this would be a more attractive area for bulls to show hints of topside continuation. From that same retracement, 218.41 and 218.04 would also be of interest.

GBP/JPY Two-Hour Price Chart Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview --- written by James Stanley, Senior Market Analyst, Global Macro

Summary:

The GBP/JPY pair rose today, building on early-week gains despite Middle East tensions that typically favor the safe-haven yen Spiking oil prices have hurt Japan's import-dependent economy, widening its trade deficit and neutralizing the yen's traditional safe-haven status A widening interest rate gap between the BoE and BoJ fuels carry trades, keeping the pair's path toward 220.00 technically intact The British pound has strengthened against the Japanese yen for the third consecutive trading day. This move is notable as elevated geopolitical risks in the Middle East typically lead to increased demand for the yen as a safe-haven asset. Examining the factors influencing this trend offers insight into current market dynamics.

How the Pound is Countering the Yen’s Safe-Haven Flows Recent military actions in the Persian Gulf and threats concerning the Strait of Hormuz have significantly impacted oil markets. While higher energy costs affect Japan, the primary driver for the GBP/JPY pair is the substantial interest rate difference between the Bank of England (BoE) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ). This differential is crucial for JPY-funded carry trades.

The BoE has maintained a relatively hawkish monetary policy, with its base rate at 3.75%. Monetary Policy Committee members voted 7-2 to keep the rates unchanged in the June meeting, with two committee members actually pushing for a hike to 4%. The reasoning is telling because the BoE explicitly flagged that the war in the Middle East has driven up energy prices.

The BoE is therefore seen as hawkish compared to the Bank of Japan’s cautious approach to normalization. This gap in interest rates continues to favor the pound in carry trade strategies, encouraging investors to hold or increase their GBP positions.

Although energy prices have seen some decline from their peak, the persistent risk of inflation keeps the committee in a stance that supports holding rates steady, rather than cutting them as some market participants had anticipated earlier in the year.

Economic indicators from the UK, including stable growth and inflation trends, have bolstered confidence in the pound. Conversely, the yen faces headwinds from Japan’s domestic economic policies and global interest rate differentials.

Is 220.00 Inevitable This Year? With strong underlying forces, reaching the significant psychological mark of 220.00 for GBP/JPY seems very possible, though not guaranteed. Many predictions suggest GBP/JPY will trade between 205 and 218 until 2026. This could go higher if the Bank of England keeps its policy advantage and investors are comfortable taking risks.

Investors must remain alert to two key risks. The biggest immediate risk is the Japanese Ministry of Finance directly interfering in the currency markets. If the yen drops too fast, officials in Tokyo will probably sell dollars and buy yen, which could cause a quick drop of several hundred pips in GBP/JPY.

Another risk is if an oil crisis leads to a global economic slowdown. This would cause a rapid unwinding of carry trades, meaning capital would rush back to Japan, quickly weakening the pound.

Why is GBP/JPY rising despite Middle East tensions?

The same conflict is keeping UK inflation expectations elevated. This pushes the Bank of England towards a policy that supports sterling’s attractiveness due to its yield.

Why isn’t the yen acting as a safe haven right now?

Structural concerns about Japan’s finances appear to be outweighing the yen’s traditional defensive role during this geopolitical stress period.

Should investors view current GBP/JPY gains as sustainable?

The sustainability of current GBP/JPY gains depends on continued monitoring of geopolitical developments and economic data to ensure momentum persists.

The British Pound registers gains against the Japanese Yen on Tuesday, rising by over 0.12% to 217.04, with the cross-pair poised to test the year-to-date (YTD) high of 218.01.

GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlookThe trend is up, as depicted by price action, as GBP/JPY surpassed the April 30 daily high of 216.60, opening the door to consolidation within the 217.00-218.00 range. Although the technicals suggest that further upside is seen, speculation that Japanese authorities might intervene in the FX markets keeps buyers cautious from opening fresh long bets, which could drive the pair higher.

Momentum as measured by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows that buyers are in charge, meaning that further upside is expected.

If GBP/JPY clears 218.00, this paves the way to challenge the 218.50 mark, ahead of 219.00. Once those levels are taken out, the next resistance is 220.00, followed by the January 2008 monthly high of 222.76.

On the other hand, the first support for GBP/JPY is at 217.00. Below this area, the next area of demand would be the April 30 high of the day (HOD) at 216.60. Once cleared, the next stop would be the 216.00 mark, followed by the 215.00 psychological level.

GBP/JPY Price Chart — Daily

GBP/JPY daily chart Pound Sterling Price This week The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies this week. British Pound was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.17%-0.00%0.34%-0.65%-0.35%-0.79%0.13%EUR0.17%0.17%0.44%-0.48%-0.22%-0.62%0.33%GBP0.00%-0.17%0.24%-0.66%-0.39%-0.80%0.20%JPY-0.34%-0.44%-0.24%-1.00%-0.59%-1.08%-0.14%CAD0.65%0.48%0.66%1.00%0.38%-0.10%0.86%AUD0.35%0.22%0.39%0.59%-0.38%-0.41%0.45%NZD0.79%0.62%0.80%1.08%0.10%0.41%1.00%CHF-0.13%-0.33%-0.20%0.14%-0.86%-0.45%-1.00% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).

Key Points:Rising producer prices, import costs and bond yields keep another BOJ rate hike in focus.USDJPY remains bullish above 160.30, with a break above 163.70 opening the door toward 175.GBPJPY may target 220, while EURJPY could extend toward 190.50 if key support levels hold.

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The interest rate outlook for Japan remains uncertain as inflationary pressure continues to build. The producer prices are rising, import costs remain high and government bond yields have moved to multi-decade highs. These trends support the case for another Bank of Japan (BOJ) rate hike later this year. But the BOJ may still wait for stronger wage growth and increase in consumer inflation. This leaves the yen sensitive to policy signals, while USDJPY, GBPJPY and EURJPY remain technically strong.

BOJ Rate Hike Outlook Strengthens as Japan Inflation Rises Japan’s producer price index (PPI) increased by 7.1% YoY in June. This beat the market expectation of 6.8% and exceeded the upwardly revised 6.6% gain in May. The increase indicates that businesses are passing their increased input costs to customers faster than in the past. The trend could increase the consumer inflation and lead the BOJ to tighten again.

According to the data, the fuel prices increased by 22.8% while non-ferrous metal prices jumped by 39.2%. Energy prices were pushed up by the Middle East conflict while the AI material demand has lifted the metal prices. These pressures may remain high if tensions continue and supply conditions remain tight. This suggests that the BOJ may hike the interest rate in October.

A low yen is putting on a new layer of inflation. The import prices continued to rise as weak yen and higher energy costs raised the cost of imported goods. The chart below shows that Japan’s imports increased 12.5% to JPY 9,890.2 billion in May 2026. Now the BOJ must decide whether the higher import prices will spread into wages and consumer prices or remain at the wholesale level.

Japan Bond Yields Hit Multi-Decade Highs on Inflation Fears Japanese government bond yields are also pointing toward a higher interest rate environment. The 10-year JGB bond yield rose to a 2.90%, the highest rate since September 1996. It rose during nine consecutive sessions since 26 June, in response to rising oil prices, higher inflation and concerns about Japan’s fiscal health.

The strong drop in yields on Friday does not change the bullish trend. Rising yields suggest that the bond investors want greater compensation for the long term inflation risks.

The long term bond yields have increased with bigger momentum. The 20-year yield rose to 3.89%, while the 30-year yield reached 4.03%. The 40-year yield advanced to 4.055%. These moves indicate that investors are worried about the big government spending plans and that the policy may stay too loose and inflation will continue to rise.

But the shorter end of the yield curve is sending a more cautious signal. The 2-year yield reached to 1.445% and the 5-year yield reached to 1.99%. The yield gap between the 10-year and 2-year yields has increased significantly as seen in the chart below.

The steepening reflects a greater sense of inflation risk in the long end, and less confidence that the BOJ will hike soon. This suggests that BOJ may wait for stronger consumer prices and wages to increase its policy rate from 1% to 1.25%.

USDJPY Forecast: BOJ Rate Hike Risk Challenges Dollar Strength US–Japan Yield Gap Narrows as Japanese Yields Rise The interest rate outlook creates mixed environment for USDJPY. The yen should find support with higher Japanese yields and the prospect of another BOJ rate hike. A more hawkish BOJ could reduce the yield gap between Japan and the U.S. This would detract from any yen funded carry trades and may potentially lead to a lower USDJPY.

The chart below shows that the Japanese yields have increased much faster since 2022. But the U.S. yields have remained relatively high. As a result, the yield gap between the two countries has narrowed. This trend reduces the interest rate advantage of holding dollars over the yen. This may provide support for the Japanese currency. But the U.S. yields remain higher so the dollar still retains an important yield advantage.

But the low yen value still plays a crucial role in Japan’s inflation issues. As energy import prices go up, the demand for foreign currencies and the pressure on the yen increase. This might keep USDJPY high until the BOJ gives more clear indication of what it will do next. Any delay of the next rate hike would be positive for USDJPY while guidance of an October increase could trigger an import yen recovery.

USDJPY Break Above 163.70 Opens the Door to 175 From technical perspective, USDJPY is consolidating at the pivotal area of 160 to 162. The price is compressing within this region before an upside breakout. A break above this zone would likely open the door for strong surge in USDJPY toward the 175 target. This target is defined by the ascending channel pattern that extends from the 2023 lows.

The consolidation around this important region is also visible on the short term 4-hour chart. It shows that the pair is now consolidating between 160.30 and 163.70. The range is widening and prices are compressing within an ascending broadening wedge pattern. A break above 163.70 would indicate a stronger rally in USDJPY toward 166. But 160.30 remains strong support in the short term. Any correction is considered a buying opportunity for traders to push the pair higher.

GBPJPY Forecast: 218 Breakout Opens the Door to 220 Higher Japan rate expectations may also put pressure on GBPJPY. The very large interest rate differential between the United Kingdom and Japan has been good for the pound. But this advantage may weaken if the BOJ hikes the rates again to 1.25%. The higher Japanese bond yields could encourage investors to reduce carry trades and move capital back to yen.

But the pair may still be supported if Bank of England maintains higher rates or takes a conservative approach to rate cuts. Thus, GBPJPY will be reliant on both central banks’ relative directionality. The most bearish risk would be a hawkish BOJ and a softer Bank of England outlook.

GBPJPY also shows strong positive price action. This positive price action is reflected in the formation of inverted head and shoulders pattern from January 2026 to April 2026.

This bullish consolidation pattern broke higher in April 2026. After the breakout, the pair continued to rally on the strength of the pound and the weakness of the Japanese yen. The pair has already broken 216.30 and is now dropping back toward support to attract buyers. The 215.60 to 216.30 area remains strong support. A break above the 218 level would likely push the pair to further highs.

EURJPY Forecast: Bullish Trend Targets 190.50 Eurozone rate expectations are not that aggressive. Therefore, EURJPY could be more responsive to BOJ communication. If the European Central Bank pivots towards easier policy ahead of the BOJ’s next rate increase, the interest rate spread between Europe and Japan will narrow. This would provide support for the yen and increase the risk of a drop in EURJPY.

The outlook also depends on the global risk sentiments. The escalation in the conflict in the Middle East would drive up energy costs for Japan and Europe. But imported fuel needs could exert pressure on the yen in the near term for Japan. The EURJPY could hold steady ahead of the BOJ. But a clear sign that the bank will hike rates in October or at year’s end could generate a deeper pullback.

EURJPY also remains strong and is consolidating within rising trend lines. The immediate support remains at 183.50. The pair is also supported by the 200-day SMA at 182.80. If EURJPY continues higher, the immediate target remains 190.50. As long as the 180 level holds in EURJPY, the next move in the pair will likely be higher. The 50-day and 200-day SMAs are rising which indicates that any correction may attract new buyers.

Final Words The interest rate outlook in Japan remains tilted towards further tightening. The producer prices are high, import costs are increasing and bond yields are rising. These factors suggest another BOJ rate hike. But the central bank might still wait for the clear signals from wages and consumer inflation. A rate hike from 1% to 1.25% could be on the cards later this year if energy prices remain elevated and the yen remains weak.

If BOJ hints at a rate hike in October or at the end of the year, the yen could get some support. But the technical picture of USDJPY, GBPJPY and EURJPY remains bullish. A break above 163.70 in USDJPY would open the door for a rally to 175. GBPJPY might push higher towards 220 and EURJPY could head to 190.50.

Read more: Weak Jobs Data Hits Fed Hike Odds as Dollar Tests Support

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Muhammad Umair is a finance MBA and engineering PhD. As a seasoned financial analyst specializing in currencies and precious metals, he combines his multidisciplinary academic background to deliver a data-driven, contrarian perspective. As founder of Gold Predictors, he leads a team providing advanced market analytics, quantitative research, and refined precious metals trading strategies.

Editors’ Picks

The British Pound advances some 0.50% against the Japanese Yen on Thursday, as risk appetite improves after US President Donald Trump said that Iran had reached out and that it wants to make a deal badly. At the time of writing, GBP/JPY trades at 217.76, near year-to-date (YTD) highs.

GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlookThe GBP/JPY has reached 18-year highs, last seen in February 2008, opening the door to challenging the January 2008 monthly peak levels.

Price action shows the market is respecting a series of higher highs and higher lows, an indication of further upside. Momentum favours buyers, as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is bullish and about to enter overbought territory, indicating further upside.

The first resistance for GBP/JPY is 218.00. Once cleared, it opens the door to challenge key psychological levels like 219.00, 220.00 and the January 2008 high at 222.76.

Conversely, a potential intervention by Japanese authorities in the foreign exchange markets could open the door for a deeper pullback, with the first support level seen at the July 7 daily low of 216.38. Below this area, the next support is the 216.00 mark. On further weakness, the next area of interest would be a downslope resistance trendline that turns into support around the 214.70-215.00 area.

GBP/JPY Price Chart — Daily

GBP/JPY daily chart Japanese Yen Price This week The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies this week. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.06%-0.46%0.65%-0.17%-0.08%-0.82%0.44%EUR-0.06%-0.54%0.58%-0.24%-0.10%-0.91%0.34%GBP0.46%0.54%1.02%0.29%0.42%-0.36%0.88%JPY-0.65%-0.58%-1.02%-0.84%-0.61%-1.45%-0.24%CAD0.17%0.24%-0.29%0.84%0.21%-0.61%0.58%AUD0.08%0.10%-0.42%0.61%-0.21%-0.81%0.43%NZD0.82%0.91%0.36%1.45%0.61%0.81%1.25%CHF-0.44%-0.34%-0.88%0.24%-0.58%-0.43%-1.25% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).

The British Pound (GBP) has resumed its broader uptrend against the Japanese Yen (JPY) on Wednesday, with price action drawing closer to the 217.00 level and the all-time high of 217.22, on the bulls’ focus. Some dovish comments by a Bank of Japan (BoJ) official have cast doubt about the BoJ’s monetary tightening plans and added pressure on an already weak Yen.

Earlier on Wednesday, the Japanese central bank’s committee member Toichiro Asada, the lone vote opposing June’s interest rate hike, affirmed that he needs to see evidence of demand-driven inflation to support further monetary tightening. 

Asada is the latest appointment to the bank's government board, and has been hand-picked by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, who has repeatedly voiced her preference for low interest rates to promote economic growth. The BoJ official assured that he is “not always opposed” to rate hikes, but these comments are seen as a token of political pressure on the central bank that might curb plans to normalize monetary policy.

Technical Analysis: The Pound might reach fresh highs around 218.00

GBP/JPY trades at 216.89 with a bullish near-term bias as dips have been contained well above previous highs in the 216.00 area. The four-hour chart shows the Relative Strength Index (14) around 66.72, highlighting strong momentum, although the neutral Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) casts a shadow over the strength of the current rally.

Bulls are testing the 217.00 level, ahead of the mentioned high at 217.22. Above here, the pair would enter uncharted territory. A wider picture, however, suggests t that the pair might be in the fifth wave of an Elliot Wave bullish cycle, with the 127.2% retracement of last week's reversal in the 218.00 area, as a plausible target.

Supports are at Tuesday's low of 216.41 and the July 2 highs at the 216.00 area. Further down, the July 2 and 3 lows between 214.70 and 214.80 would come into focus.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Japanese Yen Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.00%0.06%0.18%-0.24%0.07%-0.49%-0.07%EUR-0.00%0.05%0.20%-0.25%0.07%-0.49%-0.07%GBP-0.06%-0.05%0.13%-0.30%0.00%-0.54%-0.15%JPY-0.18%-0.20%-0.13%-0.43%-0.10%-0.68%-0.27%CAD0.24%0.25%0.30%0.43%0.33%-0.25%0.16%AUD-0.07%-0.07%-0.01%0.10%-0.33%-0.56%-0.18%NZD0.49%0.49%0.54%0.68%0.25%0.56%0.39%CHF0.07%0.07%0.15%0.27%-0.16%0.18%-0.39% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).