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Corpay (CPAY - Free Report) is expected to deliver a year-over-year increase in earnings on higher revenues when it reports results for the quarter ended September 2026. This widely-known consensus outlook gives a good sense of the company's earnings picture, but how the actual results compare to these estimates is a powerful factor that could impact its near-term stock price.

The stock might move higher if these key numbers top expectations in the upcoming earnings report, which is expected to be released on November 4. On the other hand, if they miss, the stock may move lower.

While management's discussion of business conditions on the earnings call will mostly determine the sustainability of the immediate price change and future earnings expectations, it's worth having a handicapping insight into the odds of a positive EPS surprise.

Zacks Consensus EstimateThis provider of fuel card and payment products for businesses is expected to post quarterly earnings of $7.18 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of +26%.

Revenues are expected to be $1.36 billion, up 16.1% from the year-ago quarter.

Estimate Revisions TrendThe consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised 0.5% higher over the last 30 days to the current level. This is essentially a reflection of how the covering analysts have collectively reassessed their initial estimates over this period.

Investors should keep in mind that the direction of estimate revisions by each of the covering analysts may not always get reflected in the aggregate change.

Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Earnings WhisperEstimate revisions ahead of a company's earnings release offer clues to the business conditions for the period whose results are coming out. Our proprietary surprise prediction model -- the Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) -- has this insight at its core.

The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter; the Most Accurate Estimate is a more recent version of the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate. The idea here is that analysts revising their estimates right before an earnings release have the latest information, which could potentially be more accurate than what they and others contributing to the consensus had predicted earlier.

Thus, a positive or negative Earnings ESP reading theoretically indicates the likely deviation of the actual earnings from the consensus estimate. However, the model's predictive power is significant for positive ESP readings only.

A positive Earnings ESP is a strong predictor of an earnings beat, particularly when combined with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold). Our research shows that stocks with this combination produce a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time, and a solid Zacks Rank actually increases the predictive power of Earnings ESP.

Please note that a negative Earnings ESP reading is not indicative of an earnings miss. Our research shows that it is difficult to predict an earnings beat with any degree of confidence for stocks with negative Earnings ESP readings and/or Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) or 5 (Strong Sell).

How Have the Numbers Shaped Up for Corpay?For Corpay, the Most Accurate Estimate is higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, suggesting that analysts have recently become bullish on the company's earnings prospects. This has resulted in an Earnings ESP of +1.07%.

On the other hand, the stock currently carries a Zacks Rank of #3.

So, this combination indicates that Corpay will most likely beat the consensus EPS estimate.

Does Earnings Surprise History Hold Any Clue?While calculating estimates for a company's future earnings, analysts often consider to what extent it has been able to match past consensus estimates. So, it's worth taking a look at the surprise history for gauging its influence on the upcoming number.

For the last reported quarter, it was expected that Corpay would post earnings of $6.6 per share when it actually produced earnings of $7.00, delivering a surprise of +6.06%.

Over the last four quarters, the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates four times.

Bottom LineAn earnings beat or miss may not be the sole basis for a stock moving higher or lower. Many stocks end up losing ground despite an earnings beat due to other factors that disappoint investors. Similarly, unforeseen catalysts help a number of stocks gain despite an earnings miss.

That said, betting on stocks that are expected to beat earnings expectations does increase the odds of success. This is why it's worth checking a company's Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank ahead of its quarterly release. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.

Corpay appears a compelling earnings-beat candidate. However, investors should pay attention to other factors too for betting on this stock or staying away from it ahead of its earnings release.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

Key Takeaways Corpay's adjusted EPS rose 36% y/y to $7, while revenues climbed 21% to $1.33 billion.Corporate Payments revenues jumped 42% as reported spend volume surged 70% to $94.64 billion.Corpay raised 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $27.15-$27.55 and expects 10% organic growth. Corpay, Inc. (CPAY - Free Report) reported impressive second-quarter 2026 results, with earnings and revenues beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate.

CPAY reported adjusted earnings per share of $7, rising 36% year over year and surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $6.60 by 6.1%. Revenues increased 21% to $1.33 billion, beating the consensus mark by 2.6%.

CPAY’s Corporate Payments Momentum ContinuesCorporate Payments revenues jumped 42% year over year to $548.7 million and accounted for 41% of consolidated revenues. On a pro-forma and macro-adjusted basis, segment revenues advanced 16% to $538.1 million.

Spend volume surged 70% on a reported basis to $94.64 billion. Pro-forma and macro-adjusted spend increased 43%, reflecting strong customer activity across cross-border and payables. Revenues per spend dollar declined to 0.58% from 0.70%, partly reflecting the addition of larger enterprise clients carrying lower yields.

Corpay’s Vehicle Business Posts Solid GrowthVehicle Payments revenues increased 13% year over year to $580.2 million, making it Corpay’s largest segment. Pro-forma and macro-adjusted revenues rose 8% to $523.5 million, supported by continued strength in Brazil and Europe.

Reported transactions declined 29% to 147.6 million because the prior-year period included activity from the PayByPhone business, which Corpay sold in March 2026. On an adjusted basis, transactions increased 8%, while revenues per transaction were unchanged at $3.56.

CPAY Sees Gradual Improvement in LodgingLodging Payments revenues rose 3% year over year to $123.2 million. Organic growth was 2%, improving sequentially as the company moved past difficult comparisons created by episodic events in the prior year.

Room nights declined 13% to 7.5 million. However, revenues per room night increased 18% to $16.34, helping the segment deliver revenue growth despite lower volume. Management expects Lodging organic growth to accelerate to the mid-single-digit range during the second half.

Corpay Expands Margins Despite Higher CostsAdjusted EBITDA increased 24% year over year to $767.2 million. The adjusted EBITDA margin expanded 100 basis points to 57.3%, benefiting from operating leverage and favorable macroeconomic conditions.

Operating costs rose 9% after excluding foreign exchange movements, acquisitions, stock-based compensation, amortization and a settlement charge. The increase primarily reflected sales investments and modestly higher credit losses. Corpay also recorded a $100-million charge related to a preliminary settlement with the Federal Trade Commission’s Bureau of Consumer Protection.

CPAY Strengthens Its Financial PositionCorpay generated $1.41 billion in net cash from operating activities during the first six months of 2026, up from $1.07 billion in the prior-year period. The company ended June with $3.16 billion in cash and cash equivalents, and $7.00 billion in restricted cash.

The leverage ratio stood at 2.55X, while available capacity under the revolving credit facility was $1.6 billion. CPAY repurchased about 1 million shares for $321 million during the quarter and had $1.4 billion remaining under its authorization.

Corpay also refinanced its revolving credit facility and Term Loan A. The transaction increased the revolver by about $1 billion to $3.7 billion and included a $1-billion repayment of Term Loan B, extending maturities and improving financial flexibility.

Corpay’s Q3 & FY26 GuidanceFor the third quarter, revenues are projected at $1.36 billion at the midpoint, suggesting 16% year-over-year growth, higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.31 billion.

Adjusted earnings are expected to be $7.15 at the midpoint, hinting at 26% year-over-year growth. It sits higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 6.59.

For 2026, Corpay updated its revenue guidance to $5.29-$5.33 billion from the year-ago quarter’s $5.25-$5.33 billion. The consensus estimate meets the midpoint ($5.31 billion) of the guided range. The outlook incorporates the second-quarter outperformance, improved business momentum and favorable macro conditions, partly offset by the planned sale of the Epyx maintenance business.

The adjusted earnings guidance is raised to $27.15-$27.55 per share from the year-ago quarter’s view of $26.3-$27.1. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pinned at $26.85. The company continues to expect 10% organic revenue growth for the year.

Corpay carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

Earnings SnapshotInsperity, Inc. (NSP - Free Report) reported impressive second-quarter 2026 results.

NSP reported adjusted earnings of 34 cents per share in the second quarter of 2026, up 31% year over year and surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 33 cents by 3.0%. Revenues increased 2% to $1.69 billion, beating the consensus mark of $1.67 billion by 0.5%.

S&P Global Inc. (SPGI - Free Report) registered impressive second-quarter 2026 results.

SPGI reported adjusted earnings of $4.83 per share, rising 23% year over year and beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4.49 by 7.6%. Pro-forma revenues of $3.68 billion increased 11% and surpassed the consensus estimate of $3.64 billion by 0.8%.