Akcie FICO k 29. září do poledne klesly o více než 25 % poté, co FHFA otevřela cestu konkurenčnímu úvěrovému skóre VantageScore 4.0 na hypotečním trhu.
Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO) Securities Investigation Notice - Levi & KorsinskyPR Newswire
NEW YORK, Oct. 7, 2026
FICO shareholders saw after-hours and premarket losses of up to a reported 20% after the FHFA's mortgage credit score announcement. Levi & Korsinsky is investigating potential securities law violations on behalf of affected investors.
, /PRNewswire/ -- Shareholders of Fair Isaac Corporation (NYSE: FICO) saw as much as a reported 20% of their position's value erased in premarket trading after the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) announced it would simplify mortgage pricing and could allow a competing credit score into mortgage underwriting. If you held FICO shares when that announcement hit and lost money, you may have legal rights. Affected shareholders are encouraged to submit your losses for review now . You may also contact Joseph E. Levi, Esq. via email at [email protected] or by telephone at (212) 363-7500.
During FICO's second quarter earnings call, on April 28, 2026, when analyst Craig Huber for Huber Research Partners asked management to confirm that were "not worried at all that Vantage is going to take any meaningful share from you on the conforming mortgage side," CEO William J. Lansing affirmatively reassured investors that was "correct." On May 5, 2026, during a conference hosted by Barclays, CEO Lansing questioned whether "Vantage gets any share at all," even if they were approved.
Within hours of the FHFA announcement, Rocket Mortgage announced they will be utilizing VantageScore 4.0 as its "preferred credit scoring model for all eligible loans" moving forward.
Levi & Korsinsky is investigating potential securities law violations on behalf of FICO investors who suffered losses tied to the decline. Shareholders who sold into the decline and those still holding shares may both be eligible to participate in the investigation.
Lost money on FICO shares after the FHFA announcement? Start your confidential loss review or call (212) 363-7500.
Levi & Korsinsky, LLP -- Top 50 securities litigation firm (ISS, seven consecutive years). Over 70 professionals. Hundreds of millions recovered.
Frequently Asked Questions About the FICO Investigation
Q: How much did FICO stock drop? A: Shares fell more than 20% by the time the market opened on September 29, 2026, and by midday the stock had fallen more than 25% from the previous day's closing price. The drop followed the Federal Housing Finance Agency's announcement that it would simplify mortgage pricing and could allow a competing credit score into mortgage underwriting. Investors who purchased FICO shares and suffered losses may be eligible to seek recovery.
Q: Which statements are being investigated as potentially misleading? A: The investigation concerns whether FICO's statements to investors regarding its mortgage credit-scoring business and related regulatory risks were accurate and complete. When the FHFA announced its mortgage credit score changes and Rocket Mortgage announced the adoption of its competitor, VantageScore 4.0, as its default credit scoring model, FICO's stock price declined sharply.
Q: Who is eligible to participate in the FICO investigation? A: Investors who purchased FICO stock or securities and suffered financial losses may be eligible. Eligibility is based on purchase date and documented losses -- not on whether you still hold the shares.
Q: What do FICO investors need to do right now? A: Investors may gather brokerage records showing purchase dates, share quantities, and prices paid. Submit your information for a no-cost, no-obligation evaluation of your potential recovery . No immediate action is required to remain eligible to participate in the investigation.
Q: What documents do I need to participate? A: Brokerage statements or trade confirmations showing purchase dates, share quantities, prices paid, and any subsequent sale dates and prices.
Q: What if I already sold my FICO shares -- can I still recover losses? A: Yes. Eligibility is based on when you purchased, not whether you still hold the shares. Investors who bought FICO and sold at a loss may still participate in the investigation.
Q: What if my FICO losses are small -- is it still worth contacting a lawyer? A: Yes. There is no minimum loss amount required to participate in the investigation.
Q: What does it cost me to participate? A: There is no upfront cost to submit your information and review whether you may be eligible to recover. If you choose to participate in any resulting action, these matters are generally handled on a contingency basis, with any attorneys' fees and expenses subject to court approval.
CONTACT:
Levi & Korsinsky, LLP
Ed Korsinsky, Esq.
33 Whitehall Street, 27th Floor
New York, NY 10004
[email protected]
Tel: (212) 363-7500
Fax: (212) 363-7171
Attorney Advertising. Prior results do not guarantee similar outcomes.
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Fair Isaac propustí asi 15 % zaměstnanců, tedy zhruba 570 lidí, poté, co regulátor umožnil používat VantageScore vedle FICO při oceňování hypotečních úvěrů. Akcie společnosti letos klesly o 58 %.
A single regulatory decision stripped FICO of the status that made its mortgage score virtually mandatory for lenders, and now the company is cutting hundreds of jobs while its stock sits near a price that one analyst just called a…
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Fair Isaac (NYSE:FICO | FICO Price Prediction) closed at $695.46, while the average Wall Street price target is $1,194.42, meaning about 71.7% upside. Most of that consensus, however, was built before one regulatory decision changed how the company’s main product gets sold.
Fair Isaac is eliminating approximately 15% of its workforce. Against a September 2025 headcount of 3,811, that means roughly 570 jobs.
The filing lists four drivers: fewer management layers, a simpler structure, better processes and tools, and AI-driven product development. Fair Isaac expects about $27.0 million of pre-tax severance in its fiscal fourth quarter of 2026. The plan should be substantially complete by the end of fiscal third quarter 2027.
Shares are down about 58% this year despite latest-quarter revenue up 26%. That operating record looks poor against a price that suggests a broken franchise.
Washington Ended FICO’s Exclusive Spot on the Mortgage Pricing Grid On September 29, the stock fell 26.52% in one session, from $840.89 to $617.87. The housing regulator had weighed in. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac would use “ONE PRICING GRID with VantageScore joining the existing FICO Classic pricing grid.”
A pricing grid is the table the two agencies use to set loan fees by credit score band, and being the only score on it made FICO effectively mandatory for lenders selling mortgages.
That status was worth more than any edge in predictive accuracy, because switching scores meant repricing loans, and a shared grid removes most of that switching cost.
A Price War Built on a $0.99 Score The same day, Rocket Companies (NYSE:RKT) said Rocket Mortgage would default to VantageScore 4.0, priced at $0.99 through 2028. FICO’s 2026 pricing is $10 per score, or $4.95 plus a per-loan fee.
Last quarter, mortgage origination revenue rose 97% while volumes grew at a low single-digit rate. That growth came from pricing power, driven by being required.
Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) downgraded the stock to Neutral from Buy and cut its target to $700 from $1,400. Halving a target in one move suggests the analyst rebuilt the valuation around lower mortgage pricing.
Results That Still Reflect the Old Rules Fiscal third quarter 2026 revenue was $674.2 million, up 26%. Scores revenue rose 41% to $458.9 million, and GAAP earnings per share were $10.45.
Those results came from a regime that is ending, and July’s full-year guidance precedes the September changes and should not be read as current.
The franchise still wins important customers. Fair Isaac said so. United Wholesale Mortgage, owned by UWM Holdings (NYSE:UWMC), will use FICO scores on all credit pulls in its broker channel.
Management argued in July that lenders were adding VantageScore alongside FICO pulls. That claim now needs fresh evidence.
Shares Have Already Reached the Downgraded Target FICO’s market value is about $15.02 billion after a 0.85% gain on the day. Shares trade about 63% below the 52-week high of $1,886.28 and not far above the $586.05 low.
The stock has bounced about 17% from its September 30 close of $592.47, which puts it almost exactly at the downgraded $700 target. That leaves little upside against the most recent major analyst target.
Consensus rests on four Strong Buy, eight Buy, seven Hold and two Sell ratings, but much precedes the rule change. At about 16 times forward earnings, the stock looks cheap only if estimates hold up despite lower mortgage pricing.
What Could Decide FICO’s Next Move The bearish case looks stronger because the score is unlikely to keep full pricing power as one option among several. Mortgage origination was 62% of Scores’ revenue last quarter, so concessions land on the most profitable business.
Total debt reached $5.58 billion, much of it funding buybacks at an average of $1,149 per share. By comparison, savings from a restructuring that carries $27.0 million in severance costs look small next to repricing the core product.
TransUnion (NYSE:TRU) looks better placed for this shift. It co-owns VantageScore and sells the underlying credit file, so it earns revenue regardless of which score a lender pulls.
My view would change if the next earnings report shows Scores pricing holding up. Wider lender adoption of VantageScore beyond Rocket would strengthen the bearish case.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Akcie Fair Isaac Corporation prudce klesly o 25,4 % poté, co Fannie Mae a Freddie Mac přešly na jeden ceník pro FICO i VantageScore. Rocket Mortgage navíc oznámila, že bude VantageScore používat jako preferovaný model.
Shares of Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO -26.52%) plunged 25.4% on Tuesday as of 1:32 p.m. EDT.
Fair Isaac has long been an investor favorite due to its monopoly on the FICO score, a standard credit score used by virtually all lenders when evaluating borrowers for loans.
However, it appears the Trump Administration, along with the rest of the housing industry, is aggressively empowering a new FICO competitor. Needless to say, when a company with a monopoly sees that monopoly erode, the stock can undergo a big rerating. So, it's no surprise to see this big move down today.
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FICO plunges amid barrage of attacks Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) director Bill Pulte has seemingly had it in for Fair Isaac in the second Trump term. In the years leading up to 2025, FICO had aggressively increased the price of FICO scores, roughly doubling them since the end of Trump's first term. Over the past two years, Pulte has been advocating for VantageScore, a new type of credit score co-developed by the three major credit bureaus Equifax (EFX -3.40%), Experian (EXPGF -1.46%) (EXPGY -1.80%), and TransUnion (TRU -2.87%).
Things have come to a head this month, and especially last night and today. In early September, Pulte posted on X that all securitized products from Fannie Mae (FNMA -5.46%) and Freddie Mac (FMCC -6.00%) could use either or both FICO and VantageScores. Pulte also highlighted VantageScore's growing market share, which reached 13% of the credit-scoring market. Pulte also noted that he had asked FICO for "competitive pricing" on its 10T credit-scoring model.
Late yesterday, Pulte again took to X to announce that Fannie and Freddie would be moving to one pricing grid for both FICO and VantageScore credit scores. Before this, lenders would need to charge higher loan rates for VantageScore-based loans sold to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. That could have kept FICO as the preferred score, despite FICO being much more expensive than VantageScore. However, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac now treat loans made with either score equally, essentially erasing that advantage for FICO.
We are Simplifying Mortgage Pricing following feedback from lenders and consumers. Instead of two separate pricing grids, which makes zero sense, Fannie and Freddie are hereby moving to ONE PRICING GRID with VantageScore joining the existing FICO Classic pricing grid. pic.twitter.com/g9h1EqsDca
-- Pulte (@pulte) September 28, 2026 Additionally, TransUnion announced today that it would keep VantageScore 4.0 pricing at $0.99 through December 2028. That means VantageScore will remain much cheaper than FICO for the next two-plus years, at least for credit scores run through TransUnion.
On top of that, Rocket Mortgage, part of Rocket Companies (RKT +0.43%), announced that it will now use VantageScore as its preferred credit scoring model -- the first lender to do so. That's a big deal, as Rocket Mortgage is the country's largest mortgage originator by volume.
Image source: Getty Images.
Is FICO a value, or a value trap? Not only is FICO's monopoly weakening, but the company has been battered on multiple fronts by the government, the credit bureaus, and the nation's largest mortgage originator. It's no wonder the stock is down so much today, and down roughly 65% from its all-time high.
Fair Isaac actually looks like a value stock here, trading at just 14 times 2026 earnings estimates. That being said, it's very unclear whether FICO will lose material market share or have to significantly cut FICO score pricing. So, the stock is still risky, but worth following in case these worst-case scenarios don't come to pass.
FICO klesl pod podporu 876 USD a vytvořil na týdenním grafu death cross. Pokles přišel po změnách FHFA, které mají zvýšit konkurenci v hypotečním skórování.
Buy VantageScore-exposed credit data/analytics plays via Experian (EXPN) and Equifax (EFX). The news increases the chance that mortgage-related credit scoring will lean more on the unified grid that includes VantageScore, which benefits the broader ecosystem rather than only FICO. If FICO must cut prices, competitors with alternative scoring rails can gain volume and improve mix, even if the overall market grows slower.
Key Risk: Mortgage pricing consolidation doesn’t translate into meaningful scoring adoption for VantageScore, leaving EXPN/EFX with no incremental volume.
FICO short
Sell Fair Isaac (FICO) into the breakdown. The stock is below $876 support, has a weekly death cross (50-week < 200-week), and is under the 61.8% Fibonacci level—classic “trend down” setup. The FHFA change forces pricing pressure by consolidating mortgage pricing metrics and pulling in VantageScore, capping FICO’s ability to raise prices. Even with solid recent revenue/profit growth, the market is already repricing for tougher competition and lower take-rates.
Key Risk: FHFA implementation ends up less damaging than feared (FICO keeps pricing power and share), triggering a fast technical reversal back above $876.
Fair Isaac stock price continued its downward spiral this week, reaching its lowest level since July 2023. FICO fell to $772 in extended hours, and is down by 67% from its highest point in 2025, making it one of the top laggards in the S&P 500 Index this year. This retreat coincided with a major change that will lead to more competition in credit scoring.
FICO stock has been in a strong sell-off this year, a trend that accelerated this week when the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) announced structural changes to mortgage pricing that will lead to more competition to its longstanding credit scoring business.
The change means that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will now consolidate their pricing metrics into a single, unified grid. As a result, the process will incorporate VantageScore, which Bill Pulte promoted on X.
These changes could have a major impact on Fair Isaac, which has always been the only score that the two mortgage giants accept. It means that FICO will now be forced to slash prices. Also, it will limit its ability to increase prices in the future.
Historically, however, initial reactions to major news events like this tends to be brief as investors usually overreact.
READ MORE: Here are the top gainers and laggards in the S&P 500 Index, SPY, VOO ETFs in 2026
The new announcement came at a time when investors have slashed their outlook for the stock. Jason Haas, a Wells Fargo analyst, slashed his target from $1,450 to $1,350, while UBS’s Kevin MacVeigh reduced to $1,130 from the previous $1,200.
Other analysts who have pared back their targets are from companies like Royal Bank of Canada (RBC), Bank of America, and JPMorgan. Most of these analysts have pointed to the rising competition and its valuation.
The most recent results showed that FICO’s revenue rose to $674 million in the second quarter from $536 million in the same period last year. Its nine-month revenue rose to $1.87 billion from $1.47 billion.
The same revenue growth was coincided with its profitability growth. Its net profit rose to over $236 million from $194 million last year.
Yahoo Finance data shows that its annual revenue will jump by 27.7% this year to $2.54 billion, followed by $2.89 billion next year. It is unclear how the recent announcement from FHFA will affect its growth.
Another positive is that the company has become fairly valued, with the forward price-to-earnings ratio of 20 being lower than the five-year average of 43.
Fair Isaac stock chart | Source: TradingView
The weekly chart shows that FICO shares have plunged in the past few years. It has plunged from a record high of $2,400 in November last year to the current $792.
The stock has dropped below the important support level of $876, its lowest level on April 20th, invalidating the double-bottom pattern. Worse, the stock has now formed a death cross pattern, which is made up of a bearish crossover of the 50-week and 200-week moving averages.
The stock has formed a series of lower lows and lower highs. This pattern is usually highly bearish. Also, it has slumped below the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement level.
Therefore, the path of the least resistance is downwards, with the next key target being the psychological level of $600.
FICO Score 10T bude od 1. ledna 2027 dostupný pro schvalování hypoték u věřitelů schválených FHA. Firma říká, že nový model zlepší přesnost posuzování rizika a podmínky pro dlužníky.
FICO® Score 10T, the most predictive modern credit score available for mortgage lending, will be available for use by Federal Housing Administration (FHA)-approved lenders beginning January 1, 2027. The availability of FICO® Score 10T will enable lenders to make more accurate lending decisions while helping consumers gain access to more favorable mortgage terms and sustainable homeownership.
FICO® Score 10T leverages trended credit and rental payment data to provide a more comprehensive view of borrower behavior over time. Multiple independent analyses have found FICO Score 10T to be the most predictive credit score available for mortgage lending. On FHA first-time homebuyer mortgages, a critical pathway for borrowers with lower down payments, FICO Score 10T outperforms competing models by more than 10%. The performance gap is even greater during origination periods with higher default rates, underscoring FICO Score 10T's ability to help lenders responsibly expand access to credit while effectively managing risk.
"FHA's announcement provides valuable clarity for the industry and allows stakeholders to continue preparing for implementation in a thoughtful and deliberate manner," said Julie May, vice president and general manager of B2B Scores at FICO. "We support efforts that give lenders access to more predictive risk assessment tools, and we believe FICO Score 10T will help improve underwriting accuracy, expand confidence in lending decisions, and strengthen outcomes across the mortgage ecosystem."
FICO embraces competition as it raises the bar for the entire industry and gives lenders better tools to serve borrowers. As lenders increasingly adopt modern credit scoring models, FICO® Score 10T stands apart as the most predictive credit score available for mortgage lending, helping lenders more accurately assess risk and support sustainable homeownership.
Through the FICO® Score 10T Free Access program, FICO Score 10T is available at no cost alongside Classic FICO.
For more information on how to sign up for the FICO® Score 10T Free Access Program, visit the FICO Score 10T Migration Resource Center.
About FICO
FICO (NYSE: FICO) powers decisions that help people and businesses around the world prosper. Founded in 1956, the company is a pioneer in the use of predictive analytics and data science to improve operational decisions. FICO holds more than 200 U.S. and foreign patents on technologies that increase profitability, customer satisfaction and growth for businesses in financial services, insurance, telecommunications, health care, retail and many other industries. Using FICO solutions, businesses in more than 100 countries do everything from protecting 4 billion payment cards from fraud, to improving financial inclusion, to increasing supply chain resiliency. The FICO® Score, used by 90% of top U.S. lenders, is the standard measure of consumer credit risk in the U.S. and has been made available in over 40 other countries, improving risk management, credit access and transparency.
Learn more at https://www.fico.com
Join the conversation at https://x.com/FICO_corp & https://www.fico.com/blogs
For FICO news and media resources, visit https://www.fico.com/en/newsroom
FICO is a registered trademark of Fair Isaac Corporation in the U.S. and other countries.
View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260911060518/en/
AI agenti začínají měnit nákupní proces a nejvíc z toho mohou těžit Fair Isaac, Shopify, Visa, Amazon a Affirm. Článek je označuje za firmy, které budou ovládat ověření, checkout, autorizaci i úvěr.
AI agents can already pick your next purchase, but they still can't pull the trigger without your permission. Five companies are quietly building the infrastructure that changes that, and they are not all the obvious names.
Consumers are already letting AI agents pick their next flight, their next router, their next tube of toothpaste. Almost none of them will let the agent hit “buy.” Visa’s chief executive said in July that “the ultimate thing that’s going to accelerate that adoption is going to be trust, trust that the payment is secure, trust that the agent is authorized, trust that the transaction reflects the consumer’s actual intent, and then the protections exist if something goes wrong.” Whoever closes that trust gap collects a toll on every autonomous transaction that follows. Five U.S.-listed names sit directly in the path of disruption.
1. Fair Isaac: The Invisible Tollbooth on Agentic Credit Start with the name nobody puts on an agentic-commerce bingo card. Fair Isaac (NYSE:FICO | FICO Price Prediction) owns the score every U.S. lender pulls before extending a dollar of consumer credit. The moment an autonomous agent tries to open a card, apply installment financing, or underwrite a “buy this now” instruction, a FICO Score has to be requested, priced, and returned in milliseconds. FICO Platform, the AI decisioning layer regional and money-center banks are migrating onto, is where those queries get resolved.
The Q3 fiscal 2026 report filed July 29, 2026, showed the tollbooth working. Scores segment revenue hit $458.90 million, up 41%, with B2B Scores up 49%. Platform ARR grew 62% year over year with platform dollar-based net retention of 148%. Management raised full-year revenue guidance to $2.53 billion and non-GAAP EPS to $42.43.
The setup is the sentiment. Fair Isaac shares have shed 41.9% year to date and trade near $955.50, giving investors an entry into the credit rail every agent must eventually query. The next name in the line of fire never had to query anyone. It just had to sit under the checkout button.
2. Shopify: The Checkout Surface Agents Talk To Shopify (NASDAQ:SHOP) is the plumbing an agent hits when a consumer says “order it.” President Harley Finkelstein said on the Q2 2026 call: “Whether commerce is handled by humans or agents, whether stores are built by people or AI, Shopify runs underneath it all.” Shopify already ships a Universal Commerce Protocol, a billion-product Catalog, and Shop Pay identity that agents can transact against on behalf of returning buyers.
The Q2 2026 numbers show the machine is already ingesting agent traffic. AI-driven orders tripled year over year, AI searches powered by Catalog converted at twice the rate of scraped-data searches, and GMV reached $116 billion, up 32% year over year. Management guided Q3 revenue growth to the low 30s.
Shopify Q2 2026 Agentic Signals Value AI-driven orders YoY 3x Catalog vs. scraped conversion 2x GMV growth 32% Shares are down 18.9% year to date to $127.53, cheaper than they were when the agent traffic began compounding. The stock in the next slot doesn’t need agent traffic. It authorizes the money that moves regardless of who clicks buy.
3. Visa: The Network Naming “Agentic” a Strategic Pillar Visa (NYSE:V) has done something the market has not fully priced: it has explicitly built agentic rails into its Visa-as-a-Service stack and told investors it is the trust arbiter. McInerney told analysts, “We are excited to be partnering with OpenAI to enable secure visa payments within agentic commerce” and “Agentic Commerce is a when, not an if.” The Agent Score, Agent Directory, and Token Assurance Framework are the products that answer the trust question the CEO named.
The Q3 fiscal 2026 report shows a network with the capital to weaponize this. Net revenue was $11.6 billion, up 14%, payments volume crossed $4 trillion, and tokenized penetration was nearing 60% of e-commerce transactions globally. Visa returned $6.2 billion to shareholders in the quarter, with $28.4 billion remaining on the buyback.
The stock is one of the few names in this basket in the green. It is up 5.7% year to date at $366.20. That relative strength matters because the next name owns both the agent and the storefront the agent is buying through.
4. Amazon: The Only Company That Owns the Agent, the Store, and the Cloud Under Both Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) is the vertically integrated bet. Alexa+ and Rufus are the agents, Amazon.com is the storefront the agent buys through, Bedrock AgentCore is the framework competitors’ agents run on, and AWS is the compute underneath all of it. Andy Jassy said on the Q2 2026 call, “AWS is booming” and confirmed that AI and Chips businesses each eclipsed run rates of more than $25 billion.
The shopping funnel is already agentic. Over 350 million customers used Alexa for Shopping in the last 12 months, interactions were up over 5x year over year, and customers who use Alexa for Shopping spend over 40% more per order. AWS itself printed $42.2 billion, up 36.7%, its fastest growth in 18 quarters.
Shares are up 11.4% year to date at $252.39 and trade at a P/E of 20. Amazon is the platform play. The last name is the credit product the agent will actually reach for when instructed to buy something without accumulating revolving interest.
5. Affirm: The Credit Primitive an Agent Picks When You Say “Don’t Rack Up Interest” If an autonomous agent is instructed to buy a $1,400 sofa without hidden fees, the default answer is transparent installment credit with a fixed schedule and no fine print. Affirm (NASDAQ:AFRM) is already embedded at checkout across Shopify, Amazon, Walmart, and now Intuit’s QuickBooks Payments as the exclusive pay-over-time option. Max Levchin’s framing from the Q2 2026 call has solidified into a thesis: “Consumers aren’t avoiding credit. They’re avoiding credit that profits from their confusion.”
The Q3 fiscal 2026 report filed May 7, 2026, shows the flywheel spinning. GMV was $11.60 billion, up 35%, the tenth consecutive quarter of GMV growth above 30%. Affirm Card GMV was $2.10 billion, up 146% with 4.4 million active cardholders. GAAP net income swung to $102.90 million from $2.80 million a year earlier.
Affirm Q3 FY26 Value GMV growth 35% Affirm Card GMV growth 146% Active merchants 515 thousand, +44% The stock is down 19.8% over the past year at $68.11, and the market cap is roughly $23.0 billion, comparable to Fair Isaac’s. That is the punchline: the agent-native credit rail is being valued in line with the credit-scoring incumbent, right as autonomous checkout begins arriving.
Where the Toll Gets Collected Consumer trust is the choke point, and every name on this list is spending real capital to be the one that closes it. Fair Isaac collects on the underwrite, Shopify collects on the checkout, Visa collects on the authorization, Amazon collects on all three plus the compute, and Affirm collects on the loan the agent chooses. Agent-initiated GMV has yet to appear as a line item in earnings decks, but that reporting gap is narrowing quarter by quarter.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec ve 2. čtvrtletí koupila 436 akcií Fair Isaac za zhruba 521 000 USD. FICO zároveň oznámila EPS 12,18 USD, nad odhadem 11,76 USD.
Caisse de depot et placement du Quebec acquired a new stake in shares of Fair Isaac Corporation (NYSE:FICO – Free Report) during the 2nd quarter, according to the company in its most recent 13F filing with the SEC. The firm acquired 436 shares of the technology company’s stock, valued at approximately $521,000.
A number of other hedge funds also recently made changes to their positions in the stock. Gallagher Fiduciary Advisors LLC purchased a new position in Fair Isaac in the second quarter worth $269,000. Man Group plc bought a new position in Fair Isaac in the second quarter valued at $7,949,000. Councilmark Asset Management LLC purchased a new stake in Fair Isaac during the second quarter valued at about $540,000. Roberts Glore & Co. Inc. IL purchased a new stake in Fair Isaac during the second quarter valued at about $479,000. Finally, Jupiter Topco LLC bought a new stake in Fair Isaac during the second quarter worth about $33,080,000. 85.75% of the stock is owned by institutional investors.
Fair Isaac Stock Up 0.1% NYSE FICO opened at $1,154.38 on Monday. The company has a 50-day simple moving average of $1,174.41 and a two-hundred day simple moving average of $1,174.19. Fair Isaac Corporation has a 12-month low of $870.01 and a 12-month high of $1,998.01. The firm has a market cap of $24.93 billion, a price-to-earnings ratio of 33.34, a PEG ratio of 1.04 and a beta of 1.30.
Fair Isaac (NYSE:FICO – Get Free Report) last announced its quarterly earnings data on Wednesday, July 29th. The technology company reported $12.18 earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter, beating analysts’ consensus estimates of $11.76 by $0.42. The firm had revenue of $674.19 million for the quarter, compared to analysts’ expectations of $679.17 million. Fair Isaac had a negative return on equity of 32.51% and a net margin of 34.05%.The company’s revenue for the quarter was up 25.7% compared to the same quarter last year. During the same period last year, the firm earned $8.57 earnings per share. Fair Isaac has set its FY 2026 guidance at 42.430-42.430 EPS. Equities analysts expect that Fair Isaac Corporation will post 37.37 earnings per share for the current fiscal year. Insider Transactions at Fair Isaac In related news, Director Eva Manolis sold 967 shares of the firm’s stock in a transaction that occurred on Wednesday, July 29th. The stock was sold at an average price of $1,400.00, for a total transaction of $1,353,800.00. Following the transaction, the director directly owned 498 shares in the company, valued at $697,200. This trade represents a 66.01% decrease in their position. The transaction was disclosed in a legal filing with the Securities & Exchange Commission, which is available through the SEC website. The transaction was executed under a pre-arranged Rule 10b5-1 trading plan. 3.02% of the stock is currently owned by insiders.
Analyst Ratings Changes A number of equities analysts have recently issued reports on the company. Royal Bank Of Canada cut their price objective on Fair Isaac from $2,400.00 to $1,525.00 and set an “outperform” rating for the company in a report on Thursday, July 30th. Jefferies Financial Group set a $1,675.00 price objective on Fair Isaac in a report on Monday, August 3rd. Bank of America dropped their target price on Fair Isaac from $1,550.00 to $1,400.00 and set a “buy” rating for the company in a research report on Tuesday, May 19th. Wall Street Zen lowered Fair Isaac from a “buy” rating to a “hold” rating in a research note on Sunday, June 28th. Finally, Barclays reduced their price target on shares of Fair Isaac from $1,950.00 to $1,700.00 and set an “overweight” rating on the stock in a research report on Monday, August 10th. Eleven research analysts have rated the stock with a Buy rating and five have issued a Hold rating to the company. According to MarketBeat, the company has a consensus rating of “Moderate Buy” and a consensus target price of $1,553.69.
Read Our Latest Stock Report on Fair Isaac
Fair Isaac Profile (Free Report)
Fair Isaac Corporation, commonly known as FICO, is a data analytics and software company best known for its FICO Score, a widely used credit-scoring system that helps lenders assess consumer credit risk. Founded in 1956 by Bill Fair and Earl Isaac, the company has evolved from its origins in statistical credit scoring to a broader focus on predictive analytics, decision management and artificial intelligence-driven solutions for financial services and other industries. FICO is headquartered in San Jose, California, and operates globally, serving clients across North America, Latin America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa and the Asia-Pacific region.
FICO’s product portfolio centers on analytics and decisioning technologies.
Featured Articles Five stocks we like better than Fair Isaac Strike a Balance Between Growth and Stability With These 3 Names Ready to Rally Rubrik’s AI Security Bet Could Power the Next Leg Higher Apple’s Foldable iPhone Could Be a Catalyst, But Not a Cure-All Snowflake Is Up Nearly 50% in 2026—What Are Short Sellers Betting Against?
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Canada Pension Plan Investment Board ve 2. čtvrtletí koupil novou pozici ve Fair Isaac za zhruba 1,74 mil. USD. FICO zároveň oznámila čtvrtletní EPS ve výši 12,18 USD, nad odhadem 11,76 USD.
Canada Pension Plan Investment Board purchased a new position in shares of Fair Isaac Corporation (NYSE:FICO – Free Report) in the second quarter, according to its most recent disclosure with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The fund purchased 1,454 shares of the technology company’s stock, valued at approximately $1,737,000.
Several other hedge funds also recently added to or reduced their stakes in FICO. Osterweis Capital Management Inc. purchased a new stake in Fair Isaac in the 2nd quarter worth about $1,544,000. Legal & General Group Plc purchased a new position in shares of Fair Isaac during the second quarter valued at approximately $173,157,000. The Manufacturers Life Insurance Company bought a new position in shares of Fair Isaac during the second quarter valued at approximately $13,838,000. Cibc World Market Inc. bought a new position in shares of Fair Isaac during the second quarter valued at approximately $510,000. Finally, Blue Whale Capital LLP purchased a new stake in shares of Fair Isaac in the second quarter worth approximately $37,809,000. 85.75% of the stock is currently owned by institutional investors.
Wall Street Analysts Forecast Growth A number of research firms have weighed in on FICO. Weiss Ratings lowered Fair Isaac from a “hold (c)” rating to a “hold (c-)” rating in a research note on Thursday, July 30th. Needham & Company LLC restated a “buy” rating and issued a $1,650.00 price target on shares of Fair Isaac in a report on Thursday, July 30th. Jefferies Financial Group set a $1,675.00 price target on shares of Fair Isaac in a research note on Monday, August 3rd. Wall Street Zen downgraded shares of Fair Isaac from a “buy” rating to a “hold” rating in a research note on Sunday, June 28th. Finally, Bank of America decreased their price objective on shares of Fair Isaac from $1,550.00 to $1,400.00 and set a “buy” rating for the company in a report on Tuesday, May 19th. Eleven investment analysts have rated the stock with a Buy rating and five have issued a Hold rating to the company. Based on data from MarketBeat.com, Fair Isaac has an average rating of “Moderate Buy” and an average price target of $1,553.69.
Check Out Our Latest Stock Report on FICO Insider Activity at Fair Isaac In other news, Director Eva Manolis sold 967 shares of the company’s stock in a transaction that occurred on Wednesday, July 29th. The shares were sold at an average price of $1,400.00, for a total value of $1,353,800.00. Following the completion of the sale, the director owned 498 shares of the company’s stock, valued at approximately $697,200. This represents a 66.01% decrease in their position. The sale was disclosed in a document filed with the Securities & Exchange Commission, which is accessible through this link. The transaction was executed under a pre-arranged Rule 10b5-1 trading plan. Corporate insiders own 3.02% of the company’s stock.
Fair Isaac Trading Up 0.1% Shares of Fair Isaac stock opened at $1,154.38 on Monday. The firm has a market cap of $24.93 billion, a P/E ratio of 33.34, a P/E/G ratio of 1.04 and a beta of 1.30. Fair Isaac Corporation has a 12 month low of $870.01 and a 12 month high of $1,998.01. The stock’s fifty day moving average price is $1,174.41 and its 200-day moving average price is $1,174.19.
Fair Isaac (NYSE:FICO – Get Free Report) last released its quarterly earnings data on Wednesday, July 29th. The technology company reported $12.18 earnings per share for the quarter, beating the consensus estimate of $11.76 by $0.42. Fair Isaac had a negative return on equity of 32.51% and a net margin of 34.05%.The firm had revenue of $674.19 million during the quarter, compared to the consensus estimate of $679.17 million. During the same period in the previous year, the company posted $8.57 earnings per share. The firm’s quarterly revenue was up 25.7% on a year-over-year basis. Fair Isaac has set its FY 2026 guidance at 42.430-42.430 EPS. Analysts forecast that Fair Isaac Corporation will post 37.37 earnings per share for the current year.
Fair Isaac Company Profile (Free Report)
Fair Isaac Corporation, commonly known as FICO, is a data analytics and software company best known for its FICO Score, a widely used credit-scoring system that helps lenders assess consumer credit risk. Founded in 1956 by Bill Fair and Earl Isaac, the company has evolved from its origins in statistical credit scoring to a broader focus on predictive analytics, decision management and artificial intelligence-driven solutions for financial services and other industries. FICO is headquartered in San Jose, California, and operates globally, serving clients across North America, Latin America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa and the Asia-Pacific region.
FICO’s product portfolio centers on analytics and decisioning technologies.
See Also Five stocks we like better than Fair Isaac Strike a Balance Between Growth and Stability With These 3 Names Ready to Rally Rubrik’s AI Security Bet Could Power the Next Leg Higher Apple’s Foldable iPhone Could Be a Catalyst, But Not a Cure-All Snowflake Is Up Nearly 50% in 2026—What Are Short Sellers Betting Against? Want to see what other hedge funds are holding FICO? Visit HoldingsChannel.com to get the latest 13F filings and insider trades for Fair Isaac Corporation (NYSE:FICO – Free Report).
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Fair Isaac po posledních výsledcích zvýšil výhled výnosů pro fiskální rok 2026 na 2,53 miliardy USD z 2,45 miliardy USD. Akcie za měsíc přidaly asi 1,5 %.
It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Fair Isaac (FICO - Free Report) . Shares have added about 1.5% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.
But investors have to be wondering, will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Fair Isaac due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.
Fair Isaac Q3 Earnings Beat Estimates on Scores, Revenues Up Y/YFair Isaac Corporation reported third-quarter fiscal 2026 non-GAAP earnings of $12.18 per share, up 42.1% year over year and 1.33% above the Zacks Consensus Estimate.
Revenues rose 25.7% to $674.19 million but missed the consensus mark by 0.75%. The quarter benefited from strong business-to-business Scores demand, led by mortgage pricing, while software growth remained modest. Software annual recurring revenues reached $816 million, up 10% year over year, as platform ARR advanced 62%.
FICO Scores Segment Extends LeadScores revenues increased 41% year over year to $458.9 million. Business-to-business revenues climbed 49% year over year, mainly due to a higher mortgage origination score unit price, while business-to-consumer revenues grew 5% year over year on higher royalties from scores sold indirectly through credit reporting agencies.
Mortgage origination revenues surged 97% year over year, with volumes rising in the low-single digits. Mortgage originations accounted for 71% of B2B revenues and 62% of total Scores revenues. Auto originations revenues increased 15% year over year, while credit card, personal loan, and other originations revenues rose 9%.
The FICO Score 10T Adopter Program expanded to 70 lenders and represented $587 billion in eligible annual originations and $1.87 trillion in eligible annual servicing. FICO also signed direct licensing agreements with resellers representing about 60% of U.S. mortgage volume and remained in discussions that could bring coverage closer to 90%.
Fair Isaac Software Mix Shifts to PlatformSoftware revenues edged up 2% year over year to $215.3 million. On a year-over-year basis, SaaS revenues grew 21%, while on-premises revenues declined 16% and professional services revenues fell 24%. Excluding point-in-time and professional services revenues, the segment grew 10% year over year.
Platform revenues jumped 66% and exceeded non-platform revenues for the first time. Platform ARR reached $413 million and represented 51% of total software ARR. Platform dollar-based net retention was 148% compared with 82% for non-platform software, lifting the total retention rate to 109%.
Trailing 12-month software annual contract value bookings rose 39% year over year to $128 million. FICO also expanded its Accenture collaboration to support platform distribution and expects the next-generation FICO Platform, including its enterprise fraud solution, to become generally available later in calendar 2026.
FICO Margins Expand Despite Higher CostsTotal operating expenses increased 13.8% year over year to $311.6 million. Research and development expenses rose 13.8% year over year to $53.7 million, while selling, general and administrative expenses increased 22.8% year over year to $170.8 million.
Operating income increased 38.1% year over year to $362.6 million. The non-GAAP operating margin expanded to 62% from 57% a year earlier, an improvement of 479 basis points. Management noted that strong B2B Scores growth was partly offset by higher personnel and interest expenses.
Fair Isaac’s Balance Sheet and Cash FlowAs of June 30, 2026, FICO had $248.4 million in cash and cash equivalents compared with $219.4 million as of March 31, 2026. Total debt was $5.58 billion.
Net cash from operating activities was $380.4 million, up from $286.2 million in the prior-year quarter. Free cash flow increased to $370.3 million from $276.2 million. Trailing 12-month free cash flow totaled $961 million, up 28%.
FICO repurchased 1.705 million shares for $1.96 billion at an average price of $1,149 per share, marking its largest quarterly repurchase in dollar terms.
FICO Raises Fiscal 2026 OutlookManagement lifted fiscal 2026 revenue guidance to $2.53 billion from $2.45 billion. GAAP net income is now expected to be $850 million, with GAAP earnings projected to be $36.86 per share.
Non-GAAP net income guidance increased to $979 million from $946 million, while non-GAAP earnings guidance rose to $42.43 per share from $40.45. The updated view reflects continued Scores momentum and software-platform execution.
Fourth-quarter operating expenses are expected to be modestly higher sequentially because of marketing tied to the Accenture partnership and anticipated one-time restructuring charges. Elevated interest rates and affordability pressures also continue to keep mortgage originations below historical norms.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?Since the earnings release, investors have witnessed a downward trend in estimates review.
The consensus estimate has shifted -6.74% due to these changes.
VGM ScoresAt this time, Fair Isaac has a great Growth Score of A, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with a D. Following the exact same course, the stock was allocated a grade of D on the value side, putting it in the bottom 40% for this investment strategy.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of B. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
OutlookEstimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Interestingly, Fair Isaac has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.
Performance of an Industry PlayerFair Isaac is part of the Zacks Computers - IT Services industry. Over the past month, CoStar Group (CSGP - Free Report) , a stock from the same industry, has gained 6.4%. The company reported its results for the quarter ended June 2026 more than a month ago.
CoStar reported revenues of $925 million in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +18.4%. EPS of $0.32 for the same period compares with $0.17 a year ago.
CoStar is expected to post earnings of $0.33 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +43.5%. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed -4.8%.
CoStar has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) based on the overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions. Additionally, the stock has a VGM Score of C.
Fair Isaac oznámila tržby 674,19 mil. USD, meziročně o 25,7 % více, a EPS 12,18 USD oproti 8,57 USD před rokem. Nejvíc rostly Scores na 458,9 mil. USD, meziročně o 41,5 %.
Fair Isaac (FICO - Free Report) reported $674.19 million in revenue for the quarter ended June 2026, representing a year-over-year increase of 25.7%. EPS of $12.18 for the same period compares to $8.57 a year ago.
The reported revenue compares to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $679.31 million, representing a surprise of -0.75%. The company delivered an EPS surprise of +1.33%, with the consensus EPS estimate being $12.02.
While investors scrutinize revenue and earnings changes year-over-year and how they compare with Wall Street expectations to determine their next move, some key metrics always offer a more accurate picture of a company's financial health.
Since these metrics play a crucial role in driving the top- and bottom-line numbers, comparing them with the year-ago numbers and what analysts estimated about them helps investors better project a stock's price performance.
Here is how Fair Isaac performed in the just reported quarter in terms of the metrics most widely monitored and projected by Wall Street analysts:
Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) - Platform: $412.8 million versus $370.22 million estimated by three analysts on average.Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) - Total: $815.8 million versus the three-analyst average estimate of $812.78 million.Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) - Non-Platform: $403 million compared to the $442.56 million average estimate based on three analysts.Revenues- Professional services: $18.32 million versus $23.54 million estimated by three analysts on average. Compared to the year-ago quarter, this number represents a -24.3% change.Revenues- Software: $215.29 million compared to the $228.35 million average estimate based on three analysts. The reported number represents a change of +1.5% year over year.Revenues- Scores: $458.9 million versus the three-analyst average estimate of $458.27 million. The reported number represents a year-over-year change of +41.5%.Revenues- On-premises and SaaS software: $196.97 million versus the three-analyst average estimate of $204.8 million. The reported number represents a year-over-year change of +4.8%.Revenues- Scores- Business-to-consumer: $58.85 million versus $57.53 million estimated by two analysts on average. Compared to the year-ago quarter, this number represents a +5.4% change.Revenues- Scores- Business-to-business: $400.04 million versus $402.34 million estimated by two analysts on average. Compared to the year-ago quarter, this number represents a +49% change.View all Key Company Metrics for Fair Isaac here>>>
Shares of Fair Isaac have returned +11.8% over the past month versus the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +1.9% change. The stock currently has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), indicating that it could perform in line with the broader market in the near term.
Key Takeaways FICO's Q3 revenues are expected to rise 26.64%, with earnings projected to grow 40.26% year over year.Higher mortgage pricing, healthy originations and Score 10T adoption may support FICO's Scores growth.FICO Platform ARR rose 49% to $349 million on customer wins, broader use cases and migrations. Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO - Free Report) is set to report its third-quarter 2026 results on July 29.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter 2026 revenues is pegged at $679.31 million, suggesting an increase of 26.64% from the reported figure in the year-ago quarter.
The consensus mark for third-quarter 2026 earnings is pegged at $12.02 per share, down by 0.25% over the past 30 days, while indicating 40.26% year-over-year growth.
The company’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, delivering an average surprise of 8.78%.
Let us see how things have shaped up prior to this announcement.
Factors Likely to Impact FICO’s Q3 PerformanceFICO's third-quarter 2026 performance is likely to have been driven by continued strength in its Scores business, supported by higher mortgage pricing and healthy origination activity. Mortgage origination revenues surged 127% year over year in the second quarter of 2026, reflecting the benefit of higher pricing and stronger volumes.
The rollout of FICO Score 10T is expected to have provided another growth tailwind in the to-be-reported quarter. During the second quarter of 2026, the company added 11 lenders to its Early Adopter Program, bringing the total to 55 lenders that represent more than $495 billion in annual serviceable mortgage originations. Three of the five largest mortgage resellers have signed up for the Direct Licensing Program, with the remaining two expected to join pending final regulatory approval. These developments are likely to have supported broader adoption of FICO Score 10T in the to-be-reported quarter.
Fair Isaac’s software business is also likely to have benefited from continued momentum in the FICO Platform. Total software ARR increased 10% year over year to $789 million in the second quarter of 2026, while Platform ARR jumped 49% to $349 million. Platform revenues grew 54%, supported by new customer wins, expanded use cases among existing customers and migrations to the platform. Management noted that software bookings are expected to be stronger in the second half of fiscal 2026 than in the first half, reflecting a healthy sales pipeline. This momentum is expected to have continued in the to-be-reported quarter as well.
FICO’s investments in explainable artificial intelligence (AI) and decisioning software are expected to remain a positive catalyst. The company highlighted that the FICO Platform is "agentic-by-design," with more than 150 customers using it across multiple use cases. Management noted that FICO has been issued 137 AI-related patents and continues to invest in explainable AI capabilities for highly regulated industries, strengthening its competitive positioning as enterprise AI adoption accelerates.
However, delays in regulatory approvals for the FICO Score 10T Direct Licensing Program and uncertainty regarding the timing of its commercial rollout could affect the pace of adoption in the to-be-reported quarter. Management continues to assume conservative mortgage volume trends, while macroeconomic conditions and housing market activity remain variables that could influence quarterly performance.
What Our Model Says About FICOPer the Zacks model, the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that is not the exact case here.
Fair Isaac currently has an Earnings ESP of -0.04% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Stocks to ConsiderHere are some companies worth considering, as our model shows that they have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat in their upcoming releases.
Amphenol (APH - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +1.12% and a Zacks Rank #1 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Amphenol shares have gained 16.5% year to date. Amphenol is scheduled to report its second-quarter 2026 results on July 29.
ASE Technology (ASX - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +21.21% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present.
ASE Technology shares have surged 145.1% year to date. ASE Technology is set to report its second-quarter 2026 results on July 30.
Fortive (FTV - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +2.82% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present.
Fortive shares have gained 9.8% in the year-to-date period. Fortive is set to report its second-quarter 2026 results on July 29.
Wall Street čeká, že Fair Isaac vykáže zisk 12,02 USD na akcii a tržby 679,31 milionu USD, což by znamenalo meziroční růst o 40,3 % a 26,6 %. Odhady ale naznačují slabší šance na překonání konsenzu.
Wall Street expects a year-over-year increase in earnings on higher revenues when Fair Isaac (FICO - Free Report) reports results for the quarter ended June 2026. While this widely-known consensus outlook is important in gauging the company's earnings picture, a powerful factor that could impact its near-term stock price is how the actual results compare to these estimates.
The stock might move higher if these key numbers top expectations in the upcoming earnings report, which is expected to be released on July 29. On the other hand, if they miss, the stock may move lower.
While the sustainability of the immediate price change and future earnings expectations will mostly depend on management's discussion of business conditions on the earnings call, it's worth handicapping the probability of a positive EPS surprise.
Zacks Consensus EstimateThis financial services company is expected to post quarterly earnings of $12.02 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of +40.3%.
Revenues are expected to be $679.31 million, up 26.6% from the year-ago quarter.
Estimate Revisions TrendThe consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised 0.47% lower over the last 30 days to the current level. This is essentially a reflection of how the covering analysts have collectively reassessed their initial estimates over this period.
Investors should keep in mind that an aggregate change may not always reflect the direction of estimate revisions by each of the covering analysts.
Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
Earnings WhisperEstimate revisions ahead of a company's earnings release offer clues to the business conditions for the period whose results are coming out. This insight is at the core of our proprietary surprise prediction model -- the Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction).
The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter; the Most Accurate Estimate is a more recent version of the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate. The idea here is that analysts revising their estimates right before an earnings release have the latest information, which could potentially be more accurate than what they and others contributing to the consensus had predicted earlier.
Thus, a positive or negative Earnings ESP reading theoretically indicates the likely deviation of the actual earnings from the consensus estimate. However, the model's predictive power is significant for positive ESP readings only.
A positive Earnings ESP is a strong predictor of an earnings beat, particularly when combined with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold). Our research shows that stocks with this combination produce a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time, and a solid Zacks Rank actually increases the predictive power of Earnings ESP.
Please note that a negative Earnings ESP reading is not indicative of an earnings miss. Our research shows that it is difficult to predict an earnings beat with any degree of confidence for stocks with negative Earnings ESP readings and/or Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) or 5 (Strong Sell).
How Have the Numbers Shaped Up for Fair Isaac?For Fair Isaac, the Most Accurate Estimate is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, suggesting that analysts have recently become bearish on the company's earnings prospects. This has resulted in an Earnings ESP of -0.04%.
On the other hand, the stock currently carries a Zacks Rank of #3.
So, this combination makes it difficult to conclusively predict that Fair Isaac will beat the consensus EPS estimate.
Does Earnings Surprise History Hold Any Clue?While calculating estimates for a company's future earnings, analysts often consider to what extent it has been able to match past consensus estimates. So, it's worth taking a look at the surprise history for gauging its influence on the upcoming number.
For the last reported quarter, it was expected that Fair Isaac would post earnings of $11.03 per share when it actually produced earnings of $12.50, delivering a surprise of +13.33%.
Over the last four quarters, the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates four times.
Bottom LineAn earnings beat or miss may not be the sole basis for a stock moving higher or lower. Many stocks end up losing ground despite an earnings beat due to other factors that disappoint investors. Similarly, unforeseen catalysts help a number of stocks gain despite an earnings miss.
That said, betting on stocks that are expected to beat earnings expectations does increase the odds of success. This is why it's worth checking a company's Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank ahead of its quarterly release. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.
Fair Isaac doesn't appear a compelling earnings-beat candidate. However, investors should pay attention to other factors too for betting on this stock or staying away from it ahead of its earnings release.
Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.
