Freeport-McMoRan po průrazu 75 USD rychle oslabil, ale Kevin Simpson dokupuje pokles. Uvedl, že jeho tezi zlomí jen zvýšení sazeb v září, říjnu a prosinci.
Jim Cramer mapped a copper rally to $100, then the breakout level collapsed within days. Now one portfolio manager is loading up on the dip and has already named the single event that would force him to abandon the entire…
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On the August 31 Mad Money “Off the Charts” segment with Bob Lang, Jim Cramer laid out a copper roadmap. Working the technicals on Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE:FCX | FCX Price Prediction), Cramer said “if 75 and change can break out, it goes to $80. That would be terrific. It’s smooth sailing then to “if 75 and change can break out, it goes to $80. That would be terrific. It’s smooth sailing then to $100.”00.” He added that the volume behind the copper miners meant “this rally is the real deal.”
The breakout level failed almost immediately. FCX closed at $75.74 on August 31, the exact level Cramer flagged, then slid 4.2% to $72.56 by September 3. Over the past week the stock is down 6.66% to $73.20. The one-year chart still shows a 59.91% gain, so this is a pullback inside a powerful uptrend.
Kevin Simpson Buys the Drop and Names His Kill Switch Kevin Simpson of Capital Wealth Planning added to both Freeport-McMoRan and Agnico Eagle Mines (NYSE:AEM) into the pullback on CNBC’s Halftime Report, extending a hard commodities theme he started the prior week with CF Industries (NYSE:CF). His reasoning for favoring copper over gold: “you’ve got an application for them with respect to electrification. If you believe in the data center build out.” That buildout runs on more than chips: we rounded up seven of the power, cooling, and infrastructure suppliers behind it in a free report on the AI infrastructure trade.
Simpson publicly named his macro kill switch: “If we get a rate hike in September, October, December, then forget the gold trade. I mean I’m completely off base with this,” he said. That is a rare admission of a specific condition that would invalidate the trade.
Copper Bull Case Freeport Is Selling Freeport’s numbers explain why Cramer and Simpson are aligned. In Q1 2026, FCX reported adjusted EPS of $0.57 versus $0.47 expected on revenue of $6.23 billion, up 12.2% year over year, with a realized copper price of $5.78 per pound versus $4.44 a year earlier. It was FCX’s fourth consecutive EPS beat.
On the Q2 conference call, CEO Kathleen Quirk said “as we look forward, it is clear the market will require additional copper supplies to meet growing demand.” Freeport modeled 2027-2028 EBITDA at roughly roughly $13 billion at $5 copper and $20 billion at $7 copper3 billion at $5 copper and $20 billion at $7 copper, with each 10-cent move in copper worth about $390 million in annual EBITDA. Details are in the company’s Q1 2026 8-K filing.
The macro tailwinds are real. The USGS added copper to the Critical Minerals list in November 2025, and S&P Global projects copper demand reaching 42 million metric tons by 2040, a 50% increase driven by electrification, AI data centers, and defense. Sell-side analysts carry an average price target of $72.05 on FCX, which the stock has already exceeded.
Gold and Fertilizer Legs of Simpson’s Trade Agnico Eagle is a pure gold play. Q2 2026 delivered adjusted EPS of $3.07 on revenue of $3.80 billion, up 35% year over year, with realized gold at $4,483 per ounce, close to today’s spot price near $4,418. AEM is still up 36.23% over the past month at $204.71 even after this week’s 4.76% pullback.
CF Industries has gained 9.56% since August 28 and is up 76.88% year to date.
What to Watch Next The trade hinges on two factors. First, the Grasberg ramp. Freeport targets roughly 65% of capacity in H2 2026, 80% by mid-2027, and near full capacity by end of 2027. Second, the Fed. Simpson has told the market exactly which outcome breaks his thesis. If copper holds the $5.78 realized level and rate cuts stay on the table, Cramer’s path to $100 stays alive. If not, the $75 breakout that failed on August 31 becomes a warning shot for the broader thesis.
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BHP ve fiskálním roce 2026 vytěžil 1 952,8 kt mědi a plánuje nový koncentrátor Escondida za 4,4 až 5,9 mld. USD, který má přidat 230–270 kt ročně. Freeport-McMoRan mezitím zvyšuje produkci přes expanze, ale čelí vyšším nákladům a nižším prodejům.
Key Takeaways FCX's expansion projects aim to boost copper output, backed by strong financial health.BHP boosts copper output and invests billions in new projects like the Escondida concentrator.Copper prices remain favorable amid demand strength, supply concerns and global tensions. Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX - Free Report) and BHP Group Limited (BHP - Free Report) are two heavyweights in the copper mining industry. Both are navigating fluctuating copper prices and global economic uncertainties.
Copper prices continue to show strength driven by robust demand from China and the United States. Structural tailwinds, including electric vehicles (EVs), renewable energy projects, artificial intelligence data center growth and grid modernization, continue to boost copper consumption. Worries about tightening supply amid rising EV and infrastructure demand aided the red metal.
Copper surged to an all-time high near $6.9 per pound earlier this month on supply tightness and demand strength. Supply risks stemming from operational issues in top producer Chile, along with export bans on copper concentrates from the Democratic Republic of Congo, supported the price rally. Imports to the United States have also surged ahead of a potential tariff announcement by the Trump administration. Copper prices are currently hovering near $6.6 per pound.
Let’s dive deep and closely compare the fundamentals of these two copper giants to determine which one is a better investment option now.
The Case for FreeportFreeport continues to leverage its portfolio of high-quality copper assets, emphasizing disciplined execution and organic growth initiatives to strengthen its production profile. FCX has completed the evaluation of a large-scale expansion at El Abra in Chile to define a large sulfide resource that could potentially support a major mill project similar to the large-scale concentrator at Cerro Verde, with an estimated resource of approximately 20 billion recoverable pounds of copper. The expansion is expected to result in the addition of more than 700 million pounds of copper production annually.
In Arizona, FCX is progressing with pre-feasibility studies at its Safford/Lone Star operations, with completion targeted for 2026, to assess a sizable sulfide expansion opportunity. It has expansion opportunities at Bagdad in Arizona that can more than double the concentrator capacity of the operation. Technical and economic studies have revealed the potential to build concentrating facilities to boost copper production by 200-250 million pounds annually.
PT Freeport Indonesia (PT-FI) is developing the Kucing Liar ore body within the Grasberg district with a targeted ramp-up to commence in 2030. Studies completed by FCX in 2025 show an opportunity to increase Kucing Liar’s design capacity to 130,000 metric tons of ore per day and reserves by roughly 20% at low costs.
FCX has a strong liquidity profile and generates substantial cash flows, providing ample flexibility to fund expansion projects, reduce debt and enhance shareholder returns. It generated solid operating cash flows of $5.6 billion in 2025. Cash flows provided by operations were around $2 billion in the second quarter of 2026. Freeport ended the second quarter with strong liquidity, including $4.1 billion in cash and cash equivalents, $3 billion in availability under the Freeport revolving credit facility, and $1.5 billion in availability under the PT-FI credit facility.
At the end of the second quarter, Freeport had a net debt of $2.1 billion, excluding PTFI’s new downstream processing facilities. Its net debt is below its targeted range of $3-$4 billion. Freeport has a policy of distributing 50% of the available cash to its shareholders and the balance to either reduce debt or invest in growth projects. FCX has no significant debt maturities until 2027.
FCX offers a dividend yield of roughly 0.4% at the current stock price. Its payout ratio is 13% (a ratio below 60% is a good indicator that the dividend will be sustainable). Backed by strong financial health, the company's dividend is perceived to be safe and reliable.
Freeport faces headwinds from higher costs. Its second-quarter unit net cash costs jumped 74% year over year to $1.97 per pound due to lower copper volumes. Freeport expects unit net cash costs of $2 per pound for the third quarter, while projecting a full-year average of roughly $1.9 (compared with $1.65 in 2025). The projected third-quarter unit cost reflects a roughly 43% year-over-year increase. The uptick in costs reflects higher costs of energy and other consumables due to the Middle East conflict and persistent pressure on volumes. Higher costs are expected to weigh on the company's margins.
Freeport’s copper sales volumes tumbled approximately 30% year over year in the second quarter to 710 million pounds. The downside primarily resulted from lower operating rates during the phased ramp-up of the Grasberg Block Cave mine in Indonesia following the mud rush incident in September 2025.
While the company’s third-quarter outlook for copper sales volumes of 750 million pounds indicates a sequential improvement, it suggests a 23% year-over-year decline. The company, in April 2026, lowered its consolidated sales volume projections for full-year 2026 to around 3.1 billion pounds of copper from the prior view of 3.4 billion pounds due to an expected delay in achieving full ramp-up of the Grasberg Block Cave mine. Lower sales volumes are expected to weigh on its top line.
The Case for BHPBHP continues to reshape its portfolio toward commodities such as copper and potash, allocating a meaningful portion of its medium-term capital expenditure to these areas. This strategy positions the company to benefit from decarbonization, electrification, population growth and rising living standards in emerging markets. It is also making operations more efficient on the back of smart technology adoption across the entire value chain.
Fiscal 2026 copper production was 1,952.8 kt, within the company’s 1,900-2,000 kt guidance range, despite planned lower grades at Escondida and ore complexity at Spence. Escondida produced 1,261.2 kt, while Antamina output rose 27% to a record 151.5 kt and Copper South Australia delivered 320.7 kt. BHP’s fiscal 2027 copper guidance of 1,650-1,800 kt points to a near-term volume reset, but the longer-term pipeline remains intact.
BHP has copper projects under execution and a pipeline that could deliver around two Mtpa of attributable copper production by the 2030s. It is planning an Escondida New Concentrator project with a potential $4.4-$5.9 billion investment to replace the aging Los Colorados plant. BHP has approved a pre-commitment funding of $0.5 billion (BHP’s share) for the concentrator, which is expected to have a higher production capacity and add 230-270 kt of copper annually.
Resolution Copper, a joint venture owned by BHP (45%) and Rio Tinto (55%), completed a land exchange in Arizona. This enables the next phase of technical work and development planning for the Resolution Copper project, which is one of the most significant undeveloped copper resources in the United States.
The company’s balance sheet remains strong with cash and cash equivalents of $18.5 billion at the end of fiscal 2026. BHP also ended fiscal 2026 with net debt of $8.7 billion, down from $12.9 billion in fiscal 2025 and below its $10-$20 billion target range.
BHP’s net operating cash flow increased 17% year over year to $21.8 billion in fiscal 2026, partly driven by higher realized prices and cost management. Free cash flow surged 83% to $9.8 billion, after spending $10.3 billion on capital and exploration projects.
BHP remains committed to driving shareholder value, having determined a final dividend of $5 billion, leading to total returns to its shareholders of $8.7 billion for the year. Since the introduction of its capital allocation framework in 2016, BHP has delivered more than $115 billion to its shareholders. BHP offers a dividend yield of roughly 2.9% at the current stock price.
FCX & BHP: Price Performance, Valuation & Other ComparisonsFCX stock has rallied 78% over the past year, while BHP has gained 71.6%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
FCX is currently trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 23.21. BHP is currently trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 18.99, below FCX.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
BHP’s return on equity of 21.6% is higher than FCX’s 10.6%. This reflects BHP’s efficient use of shareholder funds in generating profits.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
How the Zacks Consensus Estimate Compares for FCX & BHPThe Zacks Consensus Estimate for FCX’s 2026 sales and EPS implies a year-over-year rise of 10.2% and 57.6%, respectively. The EPS estimates for 2026 have been going up over the past 60 days.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The consensus estimate for BHP’s current fiscal year sales implies a year-over-year rise of 10.1%. The same for EPS suggests a 5.9% year-over-year increase. The EPS estimates for the current fiscal year have been going south over the past 60 days.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
FCX or BHP: Which Is the Better Pick?Both FCX and BHP currently carry a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), so picking one stock is not easy. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Both Freeport and BHP present compelling investment cases. FCX is poised to gain from progress in expansion activities that will boost production capacity. Robust financial health allows FCX to invest in growth projects and drive shareholder value. Strong cash generation, investment in growth projects and higher operational efficacy, aided by the adoption of technology, bode well for BHP Group. BHP appears to have an edge over FCX due to its more attractive valuation. BHP’s higher ROE also indicates that it is more effectively utilizing shareholder funds. Investors seeking exposure to the copper mining space might consider BHP to be the more favorable option at this time.
Advisors Preferred LLC ve 2. čtvrtletí získala nový podíl ve Freeport-McMoRan za zhruba 1,715 mil. USD a zakoupila 28 136 akcií. Zájem institucionálních investorů ve firmě zůstává vysoký, drží 80,77 % akcií.
Advisors Preferred LLC bought a new stake in Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (NYSE:FCX – Free Report) in the second quarter, according to its most recent Form 13F filing with the Securities & Exchange Commission. The firm bought 28,136 shares of the natural resource company’s stock, valued at approximately $1,715,000.
Several other large investors also recently bought and sold shares of the business. Strategic Investment Solutions Inc. IL purchased a new position in Freeport-McMoRan in the fourth quarter worth about $25,000. Steph & Co. raised its position in Freeport-McMoRan by 43.7% during the first quarter. Steph & Co. now owns 493 shares of the natural resource company’s stock valued at $29,000 after purchasing an additional 150 shares during the period. Cassaday & Co Wealth Management LLC bought a new stake in shares of Freeport-McMoRan in the 1st quarter valued at approximately $29,000. Kemnay Advisory Services Inc. bought a new stake in shares of Freeport-McMoRan in the 4th quarter valued at approximately $29,000. Finally, SHP Wealth Management purchased a new position in shares of Freeport-McMoRan in the 4th quarter worth approximately $30,000. Institutional investors own 80.77% of the company’s stock.
Freeport-McMoRan Price Performance Shares of FCX stock opened at $71.18 on Friday. Freeport-McMoRan Inc. has a twelve month low of $35.15 and a twelve month high of $72.28. The stock has a market capitalization of $102.22 billion, a price-to-earnings ratio of 35.06, a P/E/G ratio of 0.69 and a beta of 1.37. The stock has a fifty day simple moving average of $64.38 and a two-hundred day simple moving average of $63.33. The company has a current ratio of 2.07, a quick ratio of 0.92 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.25.
Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE:FCX – Get Free Report) last announced its quarterly earnings results on Thursday, July 23rd. The natural resource company reported $0.74 EPS for the quarter, beating the consensus estimate of $0.62 by $0.12. The firm had revenue of $7.03 billion for the quarter, compared to analyst estimates of $6.62 billion. Freeport-McMoRan had a return on equity of 10.63% and a net margin of 11.39%.The business’s revenue for the quarter was down 7.3% on a year-over-year basis. During the same quarter last year, the firm posted $0.54 earnings per share. On average, analysts predict that Freeport-McMoRan Inc. will post 2.79 EPS for the current fiscal year. Freeport-McMoRan Announces Dividend The firm also recently announced a quarterly dividend, which was paid on Monday, August 3rd. Shareholders of record on Wednesday, July 15th were given a dividend of $0.075 per share. The ex-dividend date of this dividend was Wednesday, July 15th. This represents a $0.30 dividend on an annualized basis and a yield of 0.4%. Freeport-McMoRan’s dividend payout ratio (DPR) is 14.78%.
Analysts Set New Price Targets Several equities research analysts have recently weighed in on the stock. BNP Paribas Exane increased their target price on shares of Freeport-McMoRan from $71.00 to $82.00 and gave the company an “outperform” rating in a research note on Thursday, June 18th. Bank of America lifted their price target on shares of Freeport-McMoRan from $74.00 to $80.00 and gave the stock a “buy” rating in a research note on Thursday, July 9th. Scotiabank upped their price target on shares of Freeport-McMoRan from $67.00 to $77.00 and gave the company a “sector outperform” rating in a report on Monday, June 15th. CICC Research reduced their price objective on shares of Freeport-McMoRan from $64.40 to $63.40 and set an “outperform” rating on the stock in a research report on Tuesday, April 28th. Finally, Wells Fargo & Company raised their price objective on shares of Freeport-McMoRan from $68.00 to $70.00 and gave the stock an “overweight” rating in a research note on Friday, July 24th. One analyst has rated the stock with a Strong Buy rating, nineteen have given a Buy rating and three have issued a Hold rating to the company’s stock. According to MarketBeat, the stock presently has a consensus rating of “Moderate Buy” and an average price target of $70.27.
View Our Latest Stock Analysis on FCX
Insider Transactions at Freeport-McMoRan In other news, CAO Stephen T. Higgins sold 14,277 shares of the company’s stock in a transaction that occurred on Wednesday, August 5th. The shares were sold at an average price of $69.50, for a total value of $992,251.50. Following the completion of the sale, the chief accounting officer owned 54,618 shares of the company’s stock, valued at approximately $3,795,951. This represents a 20.72% decrease in their position. The sale was disclosed in a document filed with the Securities & Exchange Commission, which is accessible through this link. Also, CAO Ellie L. Mikes sold 4,773 shares of the stock in a transaction that occurred on Wednesday, August 5th. The shares were sold at an average price of $70.00, for a total transaction of $334,110.00. Following the transaction, the chief accounting officer owned 36,000 shares in the company, valued at approximately $2,520,000. This represents a 11.71% decrease in their ownership of the stock. The disclosure for this sale is available in the SEC filing. Insiders have sold a total of 26,600 shares of company stock worth $1,802,012 in the last three months. Insiders own 0.73% of the company’s stock.
(Free Report)
Freeport-McMoRan Inc is a U.S.-based natural resources company primarily engaged in the exploration, mining and processing of copper, gold and molybdenum. Its operations encompass large-scale open-pit and underground mining as well as associated concentrator and milling facilities. The company produces copper in the form of concentrates and cathodes, and also recovers gold and molybdenum as co-products; its business model includes exploration, development, mining, beneficiation and the sale of bulk commodities to smelters and industrial customers.
Freeport-McMoRan conducts operations and development activities across multiple geographies, with substantial assets in the Americas and Indonesia.
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Freeport-McMoRan ve 2. čtvrtletí prodal 710 milionů liber mědi, meziročně o 30 % méně kvůli nižším provozním tempům v Grasbergu. Na 3. čtvrtletí čeká 750 milionů liber, stále o 23 % méně než loni.
Key Takeaways Freeport-McMoRan's Q2 copper sales fell 30% Y/Y to 710 million pounds amid lower operating rates.FCX expects Q3 copper sales of 750 million pounds, indicating a 23% year-over-year decline.Freeport-McMoRan maintained its 2026 copper sales forecast of about 3.1 billion pounds.
Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX - Free Report) delivered second-quarter 2026 earnings and revenue above expectations, driven by higher metal prices, though weaker sales volumes were a drag. Freeport’s copper sales volumes tumbled approximately 30% year over year in the second quarter to 710 million pounds.
The downside primarily resulted from lower operating rates during the phased ramp-up of the Grasberg Block Cave mine in Indonesia, following the mud rush incident in September 2025.
While the company’s third-quarter outlook for copper sales volumes of 750 million pounds indicates a sequential improvement, it still suggests a 23% year-over-year decline. In April 2026, the company lowered its consolidated sales volume projections for full-year 2026 to around 3.1 billion pounds of copper from the prior view of 3.4 billion pounds due to an expected delay in achieving full ramp-up of the Grasberg Block Cave mine. The company maintained that volume forecast in its second-quarter call.
Sales volume growth underpins Freeport’s ability to leverage higher copper and gold prices, maintain margin expansion and deliver on its targets. Despite gains in realized prices, lower expected volumes are likely to strain its financials.
Among FCX’s peers, Southern Copper Corporation (SCCO - Free Report) logged lower copper sales volumes in the second quarter. Southern Copper sold 220,712 tons of copper in the quarter, declining 1.5% year over year. Southern Copper also saw lower molybdenum sales volumes, which fell roughly 13.1% year over year.
BHP Group Limited (BHP - Free Report) saw lower year-over-year copper sales in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026 (ended June 30, 2026). BHP Group’s copper sales for the quarter fell roughly 8% year over year to 483.3kt. BHP Group’s fiscal 2026 copper output fell 7% year over year.
The Zacks Rundown for FCXShares of Freeport-McMoRan have rallied 63.7% in a year compared with the Zacks Mining - Non Ferrous industry’s rise of 67.4%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
From a valuation standpoint, FCX is currently trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 20.8, an 8.9% discount to the industry average of 22.84X. It carries a Value Score of C.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for FCX’s 2026 and 2027 earnings implies a year-over-year rise of 55.9% and 33.3%, respectively. The EPS estimates for 2026 and 2027 have been trending higher over the past 60 days.
Freeport-McMoRan oznámila silné výsledky za 2. čtvrtletí: produkce i prodeje překonaly odhady a jednotkové hotovostní náklady klesly na 1,92 USD/lb. Grasberg se navíc zotavuje rychleji, než se čekalo.
SummaryFreeport's Q2 results were bullish: production and sales exceeded estimates, unit cash costs fell to $1.92/lb, and Grasberg recovery ramped up faster than I expected.Growth initiatives, including leaching optimization and Bagdad expansion, could boost U.S. copper output by 60% by 2030, providing a significant future catalyst.FCX stock is +37% YTD and +70% over the past year, as higher realized copper prices outweighed a 20% pullback in the price of gold and the Grasberg disaster.Despite a strong balance sheet and near-record copper prices, FCX faces commodity price and Grasberg execution risks, and the current valuation tempers new buying.I reiterate my HOLD rating on Freeport but reserve the right to upgrade should Grasberg ramp-up continue successfully in Q3 and the copper price stays near an all-time record high. Four 9's Purity Gold Bars
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The stock of miner Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) is +37% YTD despite the fact that the gold rally stalled this year and the shiny metal is down ~20% from its springtime high over $5,000/oz (see chart
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Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of FCX, COP either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
I am an electronics engineer, not a CFA. The information and data presented in this article were obtained from company documents and/or sources believed to be reliable, but have not been independently verified. Therefore, the author cannot guarantee their accuracy. Please do your own research and contact a qualified investment advisor. I am not responsible for the investment decisions you make.
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Freeport-McMoRan uvedl, že rozjezd Grasbergu zůstává podle plánu a těžba by měla ve druhé polovině 2026 dosáhnout asi 65 % kapacity. Firma zároveň zvýšila odhad upraveného zisku na akcii na 0,74 USD a tržby na 7,03 miliardy USD.
Key Takeaways FCX expects Grasberg to reach 65% capacity in late 2026 and approach full capacity by year-end 2027.Morenci mining rates rose 30% above the five-year average as reliability and workforce stability improved.Freeport targets a 300-million-pound leach run rate by year-end 2026, with 800 million pounds longer term. Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX - Free Report) used its second-quarter 2026 earnings call to emphasize steady progress at Grasberg, improving U.S. operating performance and a widening pipeline of brownfield copper projects.
The quarter also showed how favorable metals pricing and better-than-expected execution can offset lower year-over-year production while the company rebuilds Indonesian output.
FCX Keeps Grasberg Ramp on SchedulePresident and chief executive officer Kathleen Quirk said the Grasberg Block Cave ramp remained aligned with the company’s April plan. Production rates doubled during the quarter, rising from an April average of 34,000 metric tons per day to 69,000 in June.
Quirk said overall Grasberg district rates should approximate 65% of full capacity in the second half of 2026, reach 80% by mid-2027 and approach full capacity by year-end 2027.
Mark Johnson, president and chief operating officer of Freeport-McMoRan Indonesia, added that material-handling upgrades and drainage work are progressing, while preparations continue for a 2027 restart of Production Block 1 South.
Freeport Builds a Larger U.S. Copper BaseQuirk said Morenci’s second-quarter mining rate was 30% above its five-year average, supported by better equipment reliability, maintenance execution and workforce stability.
Senior vice president Cory Stevens said higher-capacity haul trucks, centralized operating support and additional technology should help sustain those gains. Management expects stronger mining rates to translate into higher copper production over time.
The leach program remains another central growth lever. Freeport is targeting a 300-million-pound annual run rate by year-end 2026 and continues to frame 800 million pounds annually as the longer-term opportunity.
FCX Weighs Higher Bagdad Capital CostsQuirk said preliminary capital for the Bagdad expansion is now around $4.5 billion, roughly 30% above the 2023 estimate, reflecting labor and commodity inflation, scope changes and added engineering.
Despite the increase, management said the project remains supported at an incentive copper price of about $4 per pound. The expansion would add 200 million to 250 million pounds of annual copper production and could be completed in three to four years.
During the Q&A, a BofA Securities analyst pressed management on the economics. Quirk said automation, operating-model changes and throughput optimization are helping offset the higher capital requirement, with a board decision still targeted for the second half of 2026.
Freeport Maintains Volume and Cost OutlookExecutive vice president and chief financial officer Maree Robertson said 2026 sales expectations remain broadly consistent with April estimates. Second-half copper sales are projected to exceed first-half levels by more than 20%, while gold sales are expected to rise more than 65%.
The company expects 2026 unit net cash costs of about $1.9 per pound, slightly better than the prior $1.95 estimate, as stronger by-product credits offset higher energy and input costs.
FCX reported adjusted earnings of $0.74 per share versus the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.62. Revenues of $7.03 billion also exceeded the $6.47 billion consensus.
FCX Q&A Sharpens Key Execution RisksA Goldman Sachs analyst asked whether Grasberg’s strong June exit rate created upside to second-half guidance. Quirk said planned maintenance and chute-gallery upgrades should keep output near the existing range rather than produce a near-term step-up.
A Barclays analyst questioned the shift of copper sales from the third quarter into the fourth. Quirk said production plans were largely unchanged, but inventory-building and refined-copper timing at the new Indonesian smelter altered the sales schedule.
A UBS analyst also challenged the prior goal of reducing U.S. costs to $2.5 per pound in 2027. Quirk said the target remains valid, but current energy, sulfur and acid markets make it unattainable in 2027.
Freeport’s Near-Term FocusManagement’s tone remained confident on execution but disciplined on timing. Grasberg restoration, leach scaling and U.S. operating improvements are the immediate priorities.
At the same time, Freeport is advancing Bagdad, El Abra and Safford/Lone Star without committing to overlapping large-project schedules before studies, permits and capital reviews are complete.
Zacks Signals Point to a Mixed SetupFCX currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). Its Growth Score of B, Momentum Score of A and VGM Score of A indicate favorable growth and trading characteristics, while the Value Score of C is more neutral.
The Style Scores are most powerful when paired with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) or Zacks Rank 2 (Buy). The current Hold rating supports a balanced stance, and it can change as analysts revise estimates following the reported results.
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Freeport-McMoRan za druhé čtvrtletí překonal odhady EPS i tržeb a potvrdil celoroční výhled. Zároveň snížil odhad jednotkových nákladů pro rok 2026 na 1,90 USD/lb.
SummaryFreeport-McMoRan delivered a solid Q2, beating EPS and revenue estimates, and reaffirmed full-year guidance despite recent stock volatility.FCX lowered 2026 unit cost guidance to $1.90/lb, raised molybdenum production targets, and remains well positioned with $962 million in Q2 free cash flow.I maintain a “Buy” rating, with fair value near $81 based on $3.40 NTM EPS and a 24x P/E multiple, supported by strong copper prices and operational execution.Technically, FCX faces resistance in the low $70s but benefits from a rising 200-day moving average, with $55 as key support. Michel Lunanga/Getty Images News
It has been a frustrating few months for Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX) investors. Shares have fluctuated wildly since January and have been little changed since my April 2026 “Buy” rating. Still, the world’s largest copper miner has seen its stock return 24% so
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Freeport-McMoRan (FCX - Free Report) came out with quarterly earnings of $0.74 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.62 per share. This compares to earnings of $0.54 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items.
This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of +19.36%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this mining company would post earnings of $0.47 per share when it actually produced earnings of $0.57, delivering a surprise of +21.28%.
Over the last four quarters, the company has surpassed consensus EPS estimates four times.
Freeport-McMoRan, which belongs to the Zacks Mining - Non Ferrous industry, posted revenues of $7.03 billion for the quarter ended June 2026, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 8.57%. This compares to year-ago revenues of $7.58 billion. The company has topped consensus revenue estimates four times over the last four quarters.
The sustainability of the stock's immediate price movement based on the recently-released numbers and future earnings expectations will mostly depend on management's commentary on the earnings call.
Freeport-McMoRan shares have added about 28% since the beginning of the year versus the S&P 500's gain of 9.6%.
What's Next for Freeport-McMoRan?While Freeport-McMoRan has outperformed the market so far this year, the question that comes to investors' minds is: what's next for the stock?
There are no easy answers to this key question, but one reliable measure that can help investors address this is the company's earnings outlook. Not only does this include current consensus earnings expectations for the coming quarter(s), but also how these expectations have changed lately.
Empirical research shows a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions. Investors can track such revisions by themselves or rely on a tried-and-tested rating tool like the Zacks Rank, which has an impressive track record of harnessing the power of earnings estimate revisions.
Ahead of this earnings release, the estimate revisions trend for Freeport-McMoRan was mixed. While the magnitude and direction of estimate revisions could change following the company's just-released earnings report, the current status translates into a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for the stock. So, the shares are expected to perform in line with the market in the near future. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
It will be interesting to see how estimates for the coming quarters and the current fiscal year change in the days ahead. The current consensus EPS estimate is $0.77 on $7.29 billion in revenues for the coming quarter and $2.72 on $28.37 billion in revenues for the current fiscal year.
Investors should be mindful of the fact that the outlook for the industry can have a material impact on the performance of the stock as well. In terms of the Zacks Industry Rank, Mining - Non Ferrous is currently in the bottom 32% of the 250 plus Zacks industries. Our research shows that the top 50% of the Zacks-ranked industries outperform the bottom 50% by a factor of more than 2 to 1.
Another stock from the same industry, Energy Fuels (UUUU - Free Report) , has yet to report results for the quarter ended June 2026.
This uranium and vanadium miner and developer is expected to post quarterly loss of $0.05 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of +50%. The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has remained unchanged over the last 30 days.
Energy Fuels' revenues are expected to be $30.2 million, up 617.3% from the year-ago quarter.
Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) čeká na výsledky za 2. čtvrtletí s odhadovanými výnosy 6,47 mld. USD, meziročně o 14,6 % níže. Firma má těžit z vyšších cen mědi, ale brzdit ji mají nižší objemy prodeje a vyšší náklady.
Key Takeaways Freeport reports Q2 results on July 23 with a positive Earnings ESP of 6.93%. FCX is expected to benefit from higher copper prices despite lower sales volumes and higher costs. Freeport's Q2 revenue estimate is $6.47B, down 14.6% year over year, with weaker volumes weighing on sales. Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX - Free Report) is set to release second-quarter 2026 results before the opening bell on July 23.
The mining giant beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in each of the last four quarters. It has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 32.1% on average. While higher unit costs and weaker volumes are likely to have impacted FCX’s performance, it is expected to have benefited from favorable copper prices.
FCX’s shares have gained 36.6% in a year, underperforming the Zacks Mining - Non Ferrous industry’s 40.7% rise.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Let’s see how things are shaping up for this announcement.
What Our Model Unveils for FCX StockOur proven model predicts an earnings beat for Freeport this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat.
Earnings ESP: Earnings ESP for FCX is +6.93%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the second quarter is currently pegged at 60 cents. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: FCX currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.
What do FCX’s Revenue Estimates Indicate?The Zacks Consensus Estimate for FCX’s second-quarter consolidated sales is currently pegged at $6,474 million, calling for a decline of 14.6% from the year-ago quarter’s tally.
Factors at Play for FCX StockFreeport’s second-quarter results are expected to reflect favorable copper prices. Copper prices started 2026 on a strong note, underpinned by robust demand from China and the United States. Structural tailwinds, including electric vehicles (EVs), renewable energy projects, data center growth and grid modernization, continue to boost copper consumption. Worries about tightening supply amid rising EV and infrastructure demand also supported the red metal. These factors led to prices surging to roughly $6.4 per pound in late January. Prices of the red metal were mostly volatile during February, largely trading near $6 per pound.
Copper prices came under pressure in March amid concerns about the impact of surging oil prices on the global economy due to the war in the Middle East. This dragged down prices to a three-month low of around $5.3 per pound in late March. Prices rebounded in April on hopes of a de-escalation in the Iran war. Prices shot up to around $6.6 per pound in May amid robust demand in China and supply worries linked to the Middle East conflict.
Copper surged to an all-time high near $6.7 per pound in early June on supply woes. Prices are currently hovering near $6.5 per pound. Our estimate for the second-quarter average realized copper price for FCX is $5.98 per pound, which indicates a year-over-year rise of 31.7%.
FCX’s results are likely to be unfavorably impacted by lower sales volumes due to the Grasberg mine incident. Freeport’s copper sales volumes tumbled approximately 25% year over year in the first quarter to 657 million pounds, and fell from 709 million pounds in the prior quarter. The downside primarily resulted from lower operating rates due to the temporary suspension of operations since the mud rush incident at the Grasberg Block Cave mine in Indonesia in September 2025.
While the company’s outlook for copper sales volumes for the second quarter of 690 million pounds indicates a sequential improvement, it still suggests a 32% year-over-year decline. For full-year 2026, consolidated sales volume projections were revised lower to around 3.1 billion pounds of copper from the prior view of 3.4 billion pounds due to an expected delay in achieving full ramp-up of the Grasberg Block Cave mine. Lower year-over-year sales volumes are expected to have weighed on its top line.
Higher unit costs are also likely to have affected the company’s performance in the June quarter. Its outlook for the second quarter suggests higher costs on a sequential basis. FCX expects unit net cash costs to rise to $2.24 per pound, while projecting a full-year average of roughly $1.95 (compared with $1.65 in 2025). The projected second-quarter unit cost reflects a roughly 98% year-over-year and 17% increase from the prior quarter. The uptick in costs reflects higher costs of energy and other consumables due to the Middle East conflict and persistent pressure on volumes.
Basic Materials Stocks That Warrant a LookHere are some companies in the basic materials space you may want to consider, as our model shows they too have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter:
The Sherwin-Williams Company (SHW - Free Report) , scheduled to release earnings on July 28, has an Earnings ESP of +0.94% and carries a Zacks Rank #2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
The consensus estimate for SHW’s earnings for the second quarter is currently pegged at $3.56.
Methanex Corporation (MEOH - Free Report) , scheduled to release earnings on July 28, has an Earnings ESP of +0.06%.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MEOH's earnings for the second quarter is currently pegged at $4. MEOH currently carries a Zacks Rank #2.
Element Solutions Inc (ESI - Free Report) , slated to release earnings on July 27, has an Earnings ESP of +1.54% and carries a Zacks Rank #2 at present.
The consensus mark for ESI’s second-quarter earnings is currently pegged at 43 cents.
Freeport-McMoRan (FCX - Free Report) is expected to deliver a year-over-year increase in earnings on lower revenues when it reports results for the quarter ended June 2026. This widely-known consensus outlook gives a good sense of the company's earnings picture, but how the actual results compare to these estimates is a powerful factor that could impact its near-term stock price.
The stock might move higher if these key numbers top expectations in the upcoming earnings report, which is expected to be released on July 23. On the other hand, if they miss, the stock may move lower.
While management's discussion of business conditions on the earnings call will mostly determine the sustainability of the immediate price change and future earnings expectations, it's worth having a handicapping insight into the odds of a positive EPS surprise.
Zacks Consensus EstimateThis mining company is expected to post quarterly earnings of $0.60 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of +11.1%.
Revenues are expected to be $6.47 billion, down 14.6% from the year-ago quarter.
Estimate Revisions TrendThe consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised 6.52% higher over the last 30 days to the current level. This is essentially a reflection of how the covering analysts have collectively reassessed their initial estimates over this period.
Investors should keep in mind that the direction of estimate revisions by each of the covering analysts may not always get reflected in the aggregate change.
Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
Earnings WhisperEstimate revisions ahead of a company's earnings release offer clues to the business conditions for the period whose results are coming out. Our proprietary surprise prediction model -- the Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) -- has this insight at its core.
The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter; the Most Accurate Estimate is a more recent version of the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate. The idea here is that analysts revising their estimates right before an earnings release have the latest information, which could potentially be more accurate than what they and others contributing to the consensus had predicted earlier.
Thus, a positive or negative Earnings ESP reading theoretically indicates the likely deviation of the actual earnings from the consensus estimate. However, the model's predictive power is significant for positive ESP readings only.
A positive Earnings ESP is a strong predictor of an earnings beat, particularly when combined with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold). Our research shows that stocks with this combination produce a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time, and a solid Zacks Rank actually increases the predictive power of Earnings ESP.
Please note that a negative Earnings ESP reading is not indicative of an earnings miss. Our research shows that it is difficult to predict an earnings beat with any degree of confidence for stocks with negative Earnings ESP readings and/or Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) or 5 (Strong Sell).
How Have the Numbers Shaped Up for Freeport-McMoRan?For Freeport-McMoRan, the Most Accurate Estimate is higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, suggesting that analysts have recently become bullish on the company's earnings prospects. This has resulted in an Earnings ESP of +6.93%.
On the other hand, the stock currently carries a Zacks Rank of #3.
So, this combination indicates that Freeport-McMoRan will most likely beat the consensus EPS estimate.
Does Earnings Surprise History Hold Any Clue?Analysts often consider to what extent a company has been able to match consensus estimates in the past while calculating their estimates for its future earnings. So, it's worth taking a look at the surprise history for gauging its influence on the upcoming number.
For the last reported quarter, it was expected that Freeport-McMoRan would post earnings of $0.47 per share when it actually produced earnings of $0.57, delivering a surprise of +21.28%.
Over the last four quarters, the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates four times.
Bottom LineAn earnings beat or miss may not be the sole basis for a stock moving higher or lower. Many stocks end up losing ground despite an earnings beat due to other factors that disappoint investors. Similarly, unforeseen catalysts help a number of stocks gain despite an earnings miss.
That said, betting on stocks that are expected to beat earnings expectations does increase the odds of success. This is why it's worth checking a company's Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank ahead of its quarterly release. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.
Freeport-McMoRan appears a compelling earnings-beat candidate. However, investors should pay attention to other factors too for betting on this stock or staying away from it ahead of its earnings release.
Expected Results of an Industry PlayerAmong the stocks in the Zacks Mining - Non Ferrous industry, First Quantum Minerals (FQVLF - Free Report) , is soon expected to post loss of $0 per share for the quarter ended June 2026. This estimate indicates a year-over-year change of -100%. This quarter's revenue is expected to be $1.42 billion, up 15.4% from the year-ago quarter.
The consensus EPS estimate for First Quantum Minerals has been revised 11.3% higher over the last 30 days to the current level. However, a lower Most Accurate Estimate has resulted in an Earnings ESP of -424.99%.
When combined with a Zacks Rank of #4 (Sell), this Earnings ESP makes it difficult to conclusively predict that First Quantum Minerals will beat the consensus EPS estimate. Over the last four quarters, the company surpassed EPS estimates just once.
Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.
Freeport-McMoRan rozšiřuje projekty v Chile, Arizoně a Indonésii, aby zvýšil kapacitu a produkci mědi. Konsensus ohledně EPS společnosti FCX pro roky 2026 a 2027 počítá s růstem o 6,1 % a 44,6 %.
Key Takeaways FCX is advancing expansion projects in Chile, Arizona and Indonesia to boost copper capacity and output.Freeport's organic growth pipeline positions itself well to benefit from future demand growth.Estimates for 2026 and 2027 for FCX point to 6.1% and 44.6% growth, trending higher over the past 60 days. Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX - Free Report) remains committed to disciplined execution and the development of its organic growth projects. The company’s expansion efforts are designed to enhance production capacity, supported by solid financial strength.
FCX has completed the evaluation of a large-scale expansion at El Abra in Chile to define a large sulfide resource that could potentially support a major mill project similar to the large-scale concentrator at Cerro Verde, with an estimated resource of approximately 20 billion recoverable pounds of copper.
In Arizona, FCX is progressing with pre-feasibility studies at its Safford/Lone Star operations, with completion targeted for 2026, to assess a sizable sulfide expansion opportunity. It has expansion opportunities at Bagdad in Arizona that can more than double the concentrator capacity of the operation. Technical and economic studies have revealed the potential to build concentrating facilities to boost copper production by 200-250 million pounds annually.
PT Freeport Indonesia (PT-FI) is developing the Kucing Liar ore body within the Grasberg district with a targeted ramp-up to commence in 2030. FCX completed studies in 2025 that showed an opportunity to increase Kucing Liar’s design capacity to 130,000 metric tons of ore per day and reserves by roughly 20% at low costs.
FCX’s organic growth pipeline, designed to expand capacity and output, positions it well to benefit from future demand growth. Effective execution of these projects will strengthen its ability to drive shareholder value.
Among FCX’s peers, Southern Copper Corporation (SCCO - Free Report) has a strong pipeline of world-class copper greenfield projects and various other promising opportunities. Southern Copper continues to build its presence in Peru as the country is the second-largest producer of copper. The company’s key growth catalysts include the Tía María, Los Chancas and Michiquillay projects in Peru, along with El Pilar and El Arco in Mexico, all of which underpin SCCO’s long-term expansion pipeline.
BHP Group Limited (BHP - Free Report) continues to reshape its portfolio toward commodities such as copper and potash, allocating nearly 70% of its medium-term capital expenditure to these areas. This strategy positions BHP to benefit from decarbonization, electrification, population growth and rising living standards in emerging markets. BHP, in March 2026, submitted the Environmental Impact Declaration permit for the Escondida New Concentrator to replace the aging Los Colorados plant as it nears the end of operations, a move that backs its growth strategy while addressing asset longevity. With an estimated investment of $4.4-$5.9 billion, the project targets new capacity to produce 220-260 kt of copper annually.
The Zacks Rundown for FCXShares of Freeport-McMoRan have rallied 22% in the past six months compared with the Zacks Mining - Non Ferrous industry’s growth of 6.8%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
From a valuation standpoint, FCX is currently trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 20.82, a modest 3.2% premium to the industry average of 20.17X. It carries a Value Score of C.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for FCX’s 2026 and 2027 earnings implies a year-over-year rise of 6.1% and 44.6%, respectively. The EPS estimates for 2026 and 2027 have been trending higher over the past 60 days.
Společnost Freeport schválila čtvrtletní dividendu 0,15 USD na akcii FCX s datem výplaty 3. srpna 2026. Z toho 0,075 USD tvoří základní dividenda a 0,075 USD variabilní dividenda.
PHOENIX--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Freeport (NYSE: FCX) announced today that its Board of Directors declared cash dividends of $0.15 per share on FCX’s common stock payable on August 3, 2026, to shareholders of record as of July 15, 2026. The declaration includes a base dividend of $0.075 per share and variable dividend of $0.075 per share in accordance with FCX's performance-based payout framework. The payment of dividends is at the discretion of the Board, which will consider FCX's financial results, cash requirements, global economic conditions and other factors it deems relevant.
FREEPORT: Foremost in Copper
FCX is a leading international metals company with the objective of being foremost in copper. Headquartered in Phoenix, Arizona, FCX operates large, long-lived, geographically diverse assets with significant proven and probable reserves of copper, gold and molybdenum. FCX is one of the world’s largest publicly traded copper producers.
FCX’s portfolio of assets includes the Grasberg minerals district in Indonesia, one of the world’s largest copper and gold deposits; and significant operations in the U.S. and South America, including the large-scale Morenci minerals district in Arizona and the Cerro Verde operation in Peru.
By supplying responsibly produced copper, FCX is proud to be a positive contributor to the world well beyond its operational boundaries. Additional information about FCX is available on FCX's website at fcx.com.
BHP posiluje těžbu mědi a plánuje nový koncentrátor Escondida s investicí 4,4–5,9 miliardy USD a kapacitou 220–260 kt ročně. FCX mezitím rozšiřuje projekty, ale čelí vyšším nákladům a nižším objemům prodeje.
Key Takeaways FCX's expansion projects aim to boost copper output, backed by a strong financial health.BHP boosts copper output and invests billions in new projects like the Escondida concentrator.Copper prices remain volatile yet favorable amid demand strength, supply concerns and global tensions. Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX - Free Report) and BHP Group Limited (BHP - Free Report) are two heavyweights in the copper mining industry. Both are navigating fluctuating copper prices and global economic uncertainties.
Prices of copper, the backbone of electrification, were volatile yet mostly favorable last year due to global economic and trade uncertainties. Copper prices started 2026 on a strong note, underpinned by robust demand from China and the United States. Structural tailwinds, including electric vehicles (EVs), renewable energy projects, data center growth and grid modernization, continue to boost copper consumption. Worries about tightening supply amid rising EV and infrastructure demand also supported the red metal. These factors led to prices surging to roughly $6.4 per pound in late January. Prices of the red metal were mostly volatile during February, largely trading near $6 per pound.
Copper prices came under pressure in March amid concerns about the impact of surging oil prices on the global economy due to the war in the Middle East. This dragged down prices to a three-month low of around $5.3 per pound in late March. Prices rebounded in April on hopes of a de-escalation in the Iran war. Prices shot up to around $6.6 per pound in May amid robust demand in China and supply worries linked to the Middle East conflict.
Copper surged to an all-time high near $6.7 per pound earlier this month on supply woes. Prices have pulled back from that level and are currently hovering near $6.3 per pound.
Let’s dive deep and closely compare the fundamentals of these two copper giants to determine which one is a better investment option now.
The Case for FreeportFreeport continues to leverage its portfolio of high-quality copper assets, emphasizing disciplined execution and organic growth initiatives to strengthen its production profile. It has completed the evaluation of a large-scale expansion at El Abra in Chile to define a large sulfide resource that could potentially support a major mill project similar to the large-scale concentrator at Cerro Verde, with an estimated resource of approximately 20 billion recoverable pounds of copper.
In Arizona, FCX is progressing with pre-feasibility studies at its Safford/Lone Star operations, with completion targeted for 2026, to assess a sizable sulfide expansion opportunity. It has expansion opportunities at Bagdad in Arizona that can more than double the concentrator capacity of the operation. Technical and economic studies have revealed the potential to build concentrating facilities to boost copper production by 200-250 million pounds annually.
PT Freeport Indonesia (PT-FI) is developing the Kucing Liar ore body within the Grasberg district with a targeted ramp-up to commence in 2030. FCX completed studies in 2025 that showed an opportunity to increase Kucing Liar’s design capacity to 130,000 metric tons of ore per day and reserves by roughly 20% at low costs.
FCX has a strong liquidity profile and generates substantial cash flows, providing ample flexibility to fund expansion projects, reduce debt and enhance shareholder returns. It generated solid operating cash flows of $5.6 billion in 2025. Cash flows provided by operations surged 36% year over year to around $1.5 billion in the first quarter of 2026. Freeport ended the first quarter with strong liquidity, including $3.7 billion in cash and cash equivalents, $3 billion in availability under the FCX revolving credit facility, and $1.5 billion in availability under the PT-FI credit facility.
At the end of the first quarter, Freeport had a net debt of $2.4 billion, excluding PTFI’s new downstream processing facilities. Its net debt is below its targeted range of $3-$4 billion. Freeport has a policy of distributing 50% of the available cash to its shareholders and the balance to either reduce debt or invest in growth projects. FCX has no significant debt maturities until 2027.
FCX offers a dividend yield of roughly 0.4% at the current stock price. Its payout ratio is 14% (a ratio below 60% is a good indicator that the dividend will be sustainable). Backed by strong financial health, the company's dividend is perceived to be safe and reliable.
Freeport, however, faces headwinds from higher costs. Its outlook for the second quarter of 2026 suggests higher costs on a sequential basis. It expects unit net cash costs to rise to $2.24 per pound, while projecting a full-year average of roughly $1.95 (compared with $1.65 in 2025). The projected second-quarter unit cost reflects a roughly 98% year over year and 17% increase from the prior quarter. The uptick in costs reflects higher costs of energy and other consumables due to the Middle East conflict and persistent pressure on volumes. Higher costs are expected to weigh on the company's margins.
Freeport’s copper sales volumes tumbled approximately 25% year over year in the first quarter to 657 million pounds, and fell from 709 million pounds in the prior quarter. The downside primarily resulted from lower operating rates due to the temporary suspension of operations since the mud rush incident at the Grasberg Block Cave mine in Indonesia in September 2025.
While the company’s outlook for copper sales volumes for the second quarter of 2026 of 690 million pounds indicates a sequential improvement, it still suggests a 32% year-over-year decline. For full-year 2026, consolidated sales volume projections were revised lower to around 3.1 billion pounds of copper from the prior view of 3.4 billion pounds due to an expected delay in achieving full ramp-up of the Grasberg Block Cave mine. Lower sales volumes are expected to weigh on its top line.
The Case for BHPBHP continues to reshape its portfolio toward commodities such as copper and potash, allocating nearly 70% of its medium-term capital expenditure to these areas. This strategy positions the company to benefit from decarbonization, electrification, population growth and rising living standards in emerging markets. It is also making operations more efficient on the back of smart technology adoption across the entire value chain.
BHP has achieved 30% growth in copper production in the last four years, and copper production reached 1,460.9 kt in the first nine months ended March 31, 2026. BHP guides copper output in fiscal 2026 to be at the upper half of its previously stated range of 1,900-2,000 kt.
BHP, in March 2026, submitted the Environmental Impact Declaration (DIA) permit for the Escondida New Concentrator to replace the aging Los Colorados plant as it nears the end of operations, a move that backs its growth strategy while addressing asset longevity. With an estimated investment of $4.4-$5.9 billion, the project targets new capacity to produce 220-260 kt of copper annually. If executed on schedule, it could provide a significant boost to BHP’s broader copper expansion plans.
The company’s balance sheet remains strong with cash and cash equivalents of $13.5 billion as of Dec. 31, 2025. BHP’s net operating cash flow increased 13% to $9.4 billion in the first half of fiscal 2026, driven by higher realized copper and iron ore prices. Free cash flow increased 10% to $2.9 billion, after spending $5.3 billion on capital and exploration projects. BHP also ended the first half with net debt of $14.7 billion, well within its $10-$20 billion target range.
BHP remains committed to driving shareholder value, having determined an interim dividend of $3.7 billion. Since the introduction of its capital allocation framework in 2026, BHP has delivered more than $110 billion to its shareholders. BHP offers a dividend yield of roughly 3.3% at the current stock price.
FCX & BHP: Price Performance, Valuation & Other ComparisonsThe FCX stock has gained 64.7% over the past year, while BHP has rallied 81.4%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
FCX is currently trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 23.01. BHP is currently trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 15.86, below FCX.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
BHP’s return on equity of 17.72% is higher than FCX’s 9.88%. This reflects BHP’s efficient use of shareholder funds in generating profits.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
How the Zacks Consensus Estimate Compares for FCX & BHPThe Zacks Consensus Estimate for FCX’s 2026 sales and EPS implies a year-over-year rise of 6.1% and 44.6%, respectively. The EPS estimates for 2026 have been going up over the past 60 days.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The consensus estimate for BHP’s current fiscal year sales implies a year-over-year rise of 2.6%. The same for EPS suggests a 41.5% year-over-year increase. The EPS estimates for the current fiscal year have been trending northward over the past 60 days.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
FCX or BHP: Which Is a Better Pick?Both Freeport and BHP present compelling investment cases. FCX is poised to gain from progress in expansion activities that will boost production capacity. Robust financial health allows FCX to invest in growth projects and drive shareholder value. Strong cash generation, investment in growth projects and higher operational efficacy, aided by the adoption of technology, bode well for BHP Group. BHP appears to have an edge over FCX due to its more attractive valuation. BHP’s higher ROE also indicates that it is more effectively utilizing shareholder funds. Investors seeking exposure to the copper mining space might consider BHP to be the more favorable option at this time.
BHP currently carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy), while FCX has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
