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SummaryFreeport-McMoRan delivered a solid Q2, beating EPS and revenue estimates, and reaffirmed full-year guidance despite recent stock volatility.FCX lowered 2026 unit cost guidance to $1.90/lb, raised molybdenum production targets, and remains well positioned with $962 million in Q2 free cash flow.I maintain a “Buy” rating, with fair value near $81 based on $3.40 NTM EPS and a 24x P/E multiple, supported by strong copper prices and operational execution.Technically, FCX faces resistance in the low $70s but benefits from a rising 200-day moving average, with $55 as key support. Michel Lunanga/Getty Images News

It has been a frustrating few months for Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX) investors. Shares have fluctuated wildly since January and have been little changed since my April 2026 “Buy” rating. Still, the world’s largest copper miner has seen its stock return 24% so

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Key Takeaways Freeport reports Q2 results on July 23 with a positive Earnings ESP of 6.93%. FCX is expected to benefit from higher copper prices despite lower sales volumes and higher costs. Freeport's Q2 revenue estimate is $6.47B, down 14.6% year over year, with weaker volumes weighing on sales. Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX - Free Report) is set to release second-quarter 2026 results before the opening bell on July 23.

The mining giant beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in each of the last four quarters. It has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 32.1% on average. While higher unit costs and weaker volumes are likely to have impacted FCX’s performance, it is expected to have benefited from favorable copper prices.

FCX’s shares have gained 36.6% in a year, underperforming the Zacks Mining - Non Ferrous industry’s 40.7% rise.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Let’s see how things are shaping up for this announcement.

What Our Model Unveils for FCX StockOur proven model predicts an earnings beat for Freeport this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP  and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat.

Earnings ESP: Earnings ESP for FCX is +6.93%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the second quarter is currently pegged at 60 cents. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: FCX currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.

What do FCX’s Revenue Estimates Indicate?The Zacks Consensus Estimate for FCX’s second-quarter consolidated sales is currently pegged at $6,474 million, calling for a decline of 14.6% from the year-ago quarter’s tally.

Factors at Play for FCX StockFreeport’s second-quarter results are expected to reflect favorable copper prices. Copper prices started 2026 on a strong note, underpinned by robust demand from China and the United States. Structural tailwinds, including electric vehicles (EVs), renewable energy projects, data center growth and grid modernization, continue to boost copper consumption. Worries about tightening supply amid rising EV and infrastructure demand also supported the red metal. These factors led to prices surging to roughly $6.4 per pound in late January. Prices of the red metal were mostly volatile during February, largely trading near $6 per pound.

Copper prices came under pressure in March amid concerns about the impact of surging oil prices on the global economy due to the war in the Middle East. This dragged down prices to a three-month low of around $5.3 per pound in late March. Prices rebounded in April on hopes of a de-escalation in the Iran war. Prices shot up to around $6.6 per pound in May amid robust demand in China and supply worries linked to the Middle East conflict.

Copper surged to an all-time high near $6.7 per pound in early June on supply woes. Prices are currently hovering near $6.5 per pound. Our estimate for the second-quarter average realized copper price for FCX is $5.98 per pound, which indicates a year-over-year rise of 31.7%.

FCX’s results are likely to be unfavorably impacted by lower sales volumes due to the Grasberg mine incident. Freeport’s copper sales volumes tumbled approximately 25% year over year in the first quarter to 657 million pounds, and fell from 709 million pounds in the prior quarter. The downside primarily resulted from lower operating rates due to the temporary suspension of operations since the mud rush incident at the Grasberg Block Cave mine in Indonesia in September 2025.

While the company’s outlook for copper sales volumes for the second quarter of 690 million pounds indicates a sequential improvement, it still suggests a 32% year-over-year decline.  For full-year 2026, consolidated sales volume projections were revised lower to around 3.1 billion pounds of copper from the prior view of 3.4 billion pounds due to an expected delay in achieving full ramp-up of the Grasberg Block Cave mine. Lower year-over-year sales volumes are expected to have weighed on its top line.

Higher unit costs are also likely to have affected the company’s performance in the June quarter. Its outlook for the second quarter suggests higher costs on a sequential basis. FCX expects unit net cash costs to rise to $2.24 per pound, while projecting a full-year average of roughly $1.95 (compared with $1.65 in 2025). The projected second-quarter unit cost reflects a roughly 98% year-over-year and 17% increase from the prior quarter. The uptick in costs reflects higher costs of energy and other consumables due to the Middle East conflict and persistent pressure on volumes.

Basic Materials Stocks That Warrant a LookHere are some companies in the basic materials space you may want to consider, as our model shows they too have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter:

The Sherwin-Williams Company (SHW - Free Report) , scheduled to release earnings on July 28, has an Earnings ESP of +0.94% and carries a Zacks Rank #2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The consensus estimate for SHW’s earnings for the second quarter is currently pegged at $3.56.

Methanex Corporation (MEOH - Free Report) , scheduled to release earnings on July 28, has an Earnings ESP of +0.06%.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MEOH's earnings for the second quarter is currently pegged at $4. MEOH currently carries a Zacks Rank #2.

Element Solutions Inc (ESI - Free Report) , slated to release earnings on July 27, has an Earnings ESP of +1.54% and carries a Zacks Rank #2 at present.

The consensus mark for ESI’s second-quarter earnings is currently pegged at 43 cents.

Key Takeaways FCX is advancing expansion projects in Chile, Arizona and Indonesia to boost copper capacity and output.Freeport's organic growth pipeline positions itself well to benefit from future demand growth.Estimates for 2026 and 2027 for FCX point to 6.1% and 44.6% growth, trending higher over the past 60 days. Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX - Free Report) remains committed to disciplined execution and the development of its organic growth projects. The company’s expansion efforts are designed to enhance production capacity, supported by solid financial strength.

FCX has completed the evaluation of a large-scale expansion at El Abra in Chile to define a large sulfide resource that could potentially support a major mill project similar to the large-scale concentrator at Cerro Verde, with an estimated resource of approximately 20 billion recoverable pounds of copper.

In Arizona, FCX is progressing with pre-feasibility studies at its Safford/Lone Star operations, with completion targeted for 2026, to assess a sizable sulfide expansion opportunity. It has expansion opportunities at Bagdad in Arizona that can more than double the concentrator capacity of the operation. Technical and economic studies have revealed the potential to build concentrating facilities to boost copper production by 200-250 million pounds annually.

PT Freeport Indonesia (PT-FI) is developing the Kucing Liar ore body within the Grasberg district with a targeted ramp-up to commence in 2030. FCX completed studies in 2025 that showed an opportunity to increase Kucing Liar’s design capacity to 130,000 metric tons of ore per day and reserves by roughly 20% at low costs.

   FCX’s organic growth pipeline, designed to expand capacity and output, positions it well to benefit from future demand growth. Effective execution of these projects will strengthen its ability to drive shareholder value.

Among FCX’s peers, Southern Copper Corporation (SCCO - Free Report) has a strong pipeline of world-class copper greenfield projects and various other promising opportunities. Southern Copper continues to build its presence in Peru as the country is the second-largest producer of copper. The company’s key growth catalysts include the Tía María, Los Chancas and Michiquillay projects in Peru, along with El Pilar and El Arco in Mexico, all of which underpin SCCO’s long-term expansion pipeline.

BHP Group Limited (BHP - Free Report) continues to reshape its portfolio toward commodities such as copper and potash, allocating nearly 70% of its medium-term capital expenditure to these areas. This strategy positions BHP to benefit from decarbonization, electrification, population growth and rising living standards in emerging markets. BHP, in March 2026, submitted the Environmental Impact Declaration permit for the Escondida New Concentrator to replace the aging Los Colorados plant as it nears the end of operations, a move that backs its growth strategy while addressing asset longevity. With an estimated investment of $4.4-$5.9 billion, the project targets new capacity to produce 220-260 kt of copper annually.

The Zacks Rundown for FCXShares of Freeport-McMoRan have rallied 22% in the past six months compared with the Zacks Mining - Non Ferrous industry’s growth of 6.8%.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

From a valuation standpoint, FCX is currently trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 20.82, a modest 3.2% premium to the industry average of 20.17X. It carries a Value Score of C.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for FCX’s 2026 and 2027 earnings implies a year-over-year rise of 6.1% and 44.6%, respectively. The EPS estimates for 2026 and 2027 have been trending higher over the past 60 days.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Key Takeaways FCX's expansion projects aim to boost copper output, backed by a strong financial health.BHP boosts copper output and invests billions in new projects like the Escondida concentrator.Copper prices remain volatile yet favorable amid demand strength, supply concerns and global tensions. Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX - Free Report) and BHP Group Limited (BHP - Free Report) are two heavyweights in the copper mining industry. Both are navigating fluctuating copper prices and global economic uncertainties.

Prices of copper, the backbone of electrification, were volatile yet mostly favorable last year due to global economic and trade uncertainties. Copper prices started 2026 on a strong note, underpinned by robust demand from China and the United States. Structural tailwinds, including electric vehicles (EVs), renewable energy projects, data center growth and grid modernization, continue to boost copper consumption. Worries about tightening supply amid rising EV and infrastructure demand also supported the red metal. These factors led to prices surging to roughly $6.4 per pound in late January. Prices of the red metal were mostly volatile during February, largely trading near $6 per pound.

Copper prices came under pressure in March amid concerns about the impact of surging oil prices on the global economy due to the war in the Middle East. This dragged down prices to a three-month low of around $5.3 per pound in late March. Prices rebounded in April on hopes of a de-escalation in the Iran war. Prices shot up to around $6.6 per pound in May amid robust demand in China and supply worries linked to the Middle East conflict.

Copper surged to an all-time high near $6.7 per pound earlier this month on supply woes. Prices have pulled back from that level and are currently hovering near $6.3 per pound.

   Let’s dive deep and closely compare the fundamentals of these two copper giants to determine which one is a better investment option now.

The Case for FreeportFreeport continues to leverage its portfolio of high-quality copper assets, emphasizing disciplined execution and organic growth initiatives to strengthen its production profile. It has completed the evaluation of a large-scale expansion at El Abra in Chile to define a large sulfide resource that could potentially support a major mill project similar to the large-scale concentrator at Cerro Verde, with an estimated resource of approximately 20 billion recoverable pounds of copper.

In Arizona, FCX is progressing with pre-feasibility studies at its Safford/Lone Star operations, with completion targeted for 2026, to assess a sizable sulfide expansion opportunity. It has expansion opportunities at Bagdad in Arizona that can more than double the concentrator capacity of the operation. Technical and economic studies have revealed the potential to build concentrating facilities to boost copper production by 200-250 million pounds annually.

PT Freeport Indonesia (PT-FI) is developing the Kucing Liar ore body within the Grasberg district with a targeted ramp-up to commence in 2030. FCX completed studies in 2025 that showed an opportunity to increase Kucing Liar’s design capacity to 130,000 metric tons of ore per day and reserves by roughly 20% at low costs.

FCX has a strong liquidity profile and generates substantial cash flows, providing ample flexibility to fund expansion projects, reduce debt and enhance shareholder returns. It generated solid operating cash flows of $5.6 billion in 2025. Cash flows provided by operations surged 36% year over year to around $1.5 billion in the first quarter of 2026. Freeport ended the first quarter with strong liquidity, including $3.7 billion in cash and cash equivalents, $3 billion in availability under the FCX revolving credit facility, and $1.5 billion in availability under the PT-FI credit facility.

At the end of the first quarter, Freeport had a net debt of $2.4 billion, excluding PTFI’s new downstream processing facilities. Its net debt is below its targeted range of $3-$4 billion. Freeport has a policy of distributing 50% of the available cash to its shareholders and the balance to either reduce debt or invest in growth projects. FCX has no significant debt maturities until 2027.

FCX offers a dividend yield of roughly 0.4% at the current stock price. Its payout ratio is 14% (a ratio below 60% is a good indicator that the dividend will be sustainable). Backed by strong financial health, the company's dividend is perceived to be safe and reliable.

Freeport, however, faces headwinds from higher costs. Its outlook for the second quarter of 2026 suggests higher costs on a sequential basis. It expects unit net cash costs to rise to $2.24 per pound, while projecting a full-year average of roughly $1.95 (compared with $1.65 in 2025). The projected second-quarter unit cost reflects a roughly 98% year over year and 17% increase from the prior quarter. The uptick in costs reflects higher costs of energy and other consumables due to the Middle East conflict and persistent pressure on volumes. Higher costs are expected to weigh on the company's margins.

Freeport’s copper sales volumes tumbled approximately 25% year over year in the first quarter to 657 million pounds, and fell from 709 million pounds in the prior quarter. The downside primarily resulted from lower operating rates due to the temporary suspension of operations since the mud rush incident at the Grasberg Block Cave mine in Indonesia in September 2025.

While the company’s outlook for copper sales volumes for the second quarter of 2026 of 690 million pounds indicates a sequential improvement, it still suggests a 32% year-over-year decline.  For full-year 2026, consolidated sales volume projections were revised lower to around 3.1 billion pounds of copper from the prior view of 3.4 billion pounds due to an expected delay in achieving full ramp-up of the Grasberg Block Cave mine. Lower sales volumes are expected to weigh on its top line.

The Case for BHPBHP continues to reshape its portfolio toward commodities such as copper and potash, allocating nearly 70% of its medium-term capital expenditure to these areas. This strategy positions the company to benefit from decarbonization, electrification, population growth and rising living standards in emerging markets. It is also making operations more efficient on the back of smart technology adoption across the entire value chain.

   BHP has achieved 30% growth in copper production in the last four years, and copper production reached 1,460.9 kt in the first nine months ended March 31, 2026. BHP guides copper output in fiscal 2026 to be at the upper half of its previously stated range of 1,900-2,000 kt.

BHP, in March 2026, submitted the Environmental Impact Declaration (DIA) permit for the Escondida New Concentrator to replace the aging Los Colorados plant as it nears the end of operations, a move that backs its growth strategy while addressing asset longevity. With an estimated investment of $4.4-$5.9 billion, the project targets new capacity to produce 220-260 kt of copper annually. If executed on schedule, it could provide a significant boost to BHP’s broader copper expansion plans.

The company’s balance sheet remains strong with cash and cash equivalents of $13.5 billion as of Dec. 31, 2025. BHP’s net operating cash flow increased 13% to $9.4 billion in the first half of fiscal 2026, driven by higher realized copper and iron ore prices. Free cash flow increased 10% to $2.9 billion, after spending $5.3 billion on capital and exploration projects. BHP also ended the first half with net debt of $14.7 billion, well within its $10-$20 billion target range.

BHP remains committed to driving shareholder value, having determined an interim dividend of $3.7 billion. Since the introduction of its capital allocation framework in 2026, BHP has delivered more than $110 billion to its shareholders. BHP offers a dividend yield of roughly 3.3% at the current stock price.

FCX & BHP: Price Performance, Valuation & Other ComparisonsThe FCX stock has gained 64.7% over the past year, while BHP has rallied 81.4%.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

FCX is currently trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 23.01. BHP is currently trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 15.86, below FCX. 

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

BHP’s return on equity of 17.72% is higher than FCX’s 9.88%. This reflects BHP’s efficient use of shareholder funds in generating profits.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

How the Zacks Consensus Estimate Compares for FCX & BHPThe Zacks Consensus Estimate for FCX’s 2026 sales and EPS implies a year-over-year rise of 6.1% and 44.6%, respectively. The EPS estimates for 2026 have been going up over the past 60 days.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

The consensus estimate for BHP’s current fiscal year sales implies a year-over-year rise of 2.6%. The same for EPS suggests a 41.5% year-over-year increase. The EPS estimates for the current fiscal year have been trending northward over the past 60 days.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

FCX or BHP: Which Is a Better Pick?Both Freeport and BHP present compelling investment cases. FCX is poised to gain from progress in expansion activities that will boost production capacity. Robust financial health allows FCX to invest in growth projects and drive shareholder value.  Strong cash generation, investment in growth projects and higher operational efficacy, aided by the adoption of technology, bode well for BHP Group. BHP appears to have an edge over FCX due to its more attractive valuation. BHP’s higher ROE also indicates that it is more effectively utilizing shareholder funds. Investors seeking exposure to the copper mining space might consider BHP to be the more favorable option at this time.

BHP currently carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy), while FCX has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.