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The Euro remains supported by expectations of further ECB tightening, but EUR/USD is still struggling to escape the lower end of its July range. EUR/USD traded close to 1.1371 at the end of the latest session, leaving the pair near July’s low after a subdued week for the single currency.

The Euro has fallen in six of the past eight completed sessions and is down around 0.4% for July, having retreated from a monthly high near 1.1481 to within one cent of June’s 1.1325 low.

Both ING and Nordea expect the European Central Bank to maintain a hawkish bias, with further interest-rate increases still likely.

However, neither the rate outlook nor the latest ECB meeting has generated enough momentum to push EUR/USD out of its narrow trading range.

ING expects the pair to remain supported by higher Eurozone rates, but retains a near-term downside bias towards 1.1380.

Nordea goes further, forecasting three additional 25-basis-point rate increases that would lift the ECB deposit rate from 2.25% to 3.00% by March 2027.

Latest — Exchange Rates:

Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD): 1.137117 (-0.05%)

Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD): 1.332498 (+0.09%)

Dollar to Yen (USD/JPY): 163.85169 (0.00%)

ING Sees September Hike Remaining in Play ING had expected the ECB to leave rates unchanged while preserving the hawkish market pricing already embedded in Eurozone interest rates.

Its baseline was for a hawkish hold, with policymakers attempting to prevent inflation expectations from becoming unanchored as European gas and global energy prices remain elevated.

“The aim today could be – once again – to preserve market pricing to limit the risk of inflation expectations de-anchoring,” says ING FX strategist Francesco Pesole.

ING argued that achieving this might require a clear indication that a September rate increase remained possible, either through the press conference or subsequent guidance.

The bank noted that the market had already priced approximately 45 basis points of tightening by the end of 2026, setting a relatively high hurdle for the ECB to deliver an additional Euro-positive surprise.

“The hawkish bar set by the market via pricing isn’t low,” says Pesole.

ING nevertheless expected a firm ECB stance to limit the downside for short-dated Eurozone rates and, by extension, the Euro.

The difficulty is that supportive rate differentials have not translated into a decisive EUR/USD advance.

“A central bank meeting would normally be a prime catalyst for EUR/USD to break out of its tight trading range, but we do not expect that to happen,” ING says.

The bank retained a near-term downside bias, arguing that currency markets remained too relaxed about the potential consequences of further escalation in the Gulf.

“Unless the newsflow becomes more constructive, we look for EUR/USD to slip towards 1.1380 in the coming days.”

That target has already been reached, with the pair ending the latest session near 1.1371.

Nordea Forecasts Three More ECB Rate Increases Nordea believes the ECB remains in a genuine tightening cycle rather than delivering one or two isolated increases.

The bank forecasts 25-basis-point hikes in September, December and March 2027, which would raise the deposit rate to 3.00%.

“The ECB did not touch rates today, but the message was in line with more rate hikes to come,” Nordea says.

“Our updated forecast still sees three more rate increases, but at a quarterly pace as opposed to a faster speed before.”

Nordea says the ECB’s latest communication left the door “wide open” to a September increase.

It highlights the central bank’s assessment that energy prices remained close to the assumptions used in its June forecast, which showed core inflation staying above 2% throughout the projection period even with two further rate increases already included.

The bank’s conviction does not depend on another major escalation in the Middle East or a renewed surge in oil.

Instead, Nordea expects broader price pressures and a relatively resilient Eurozone economy to keep the ECB tightening for longer.

“We think that we are amidst a hiking cycle rather than one or two isolated rate moves, and continue to expect the ECB to raise rates three more times.”

The bank has slowed the expected pace of tightening because oil prices have fallen from their earlier highs and the growth outlook has become less certain.

A rapid improvement in the geopolitical backdrop could reduce the need for further action, while a prolonged conflict and renewed energy-price increase could produce faster or additional rate increases.

Image: Nordea chart showing 25-basis-point ECB hikes in September, December and March 2027, taking the deposit rate to 3.00% - Courtesy of Nordea. Energy Inflation May Take Time to Spread Nordea argues that markets and policymakers may still be underestimating the delayed second-round effects of higher energy costs.

Its research notes that during the previous inflation cycle it took several months for rising energy prices to feed into food, goods and services inflation.

It also took considerably longer for forward inflation expectations to peak than for spot inflation itself.

“We still see risks biased towards more second-round impact on inflation than what markets and the ECB expect,” Nordea says.

This possibility supports the case for further tightening even if the immediate increase in oil and gas prices begins to reverse.

The bank also points to inflation expectations that remain above the ECB’s target across several measures.

Its report shows five-year market inflation expectations around 2.26%, while household and large-company measures remain closer to 2.9%.

Nordea expects Eurozone growth of approximately 1% in 2026, although it acknowledges that the risks are tilted to the downside.

The bank nevertheless says the economy has remained more resilient than weak purchasing managers’ surveys would suggest.

Manufacturing output and retail sales increased in the available April and May data, while second-quarter growth may have been around 0.3%.

Nordea expects household consumption to remain the primary source of positive growth, supplemented by investment in technology and defence.

EUR/USD Technical Outlook Despite the increasingly hawkish ECB outlook, the EUR/USD chart shows little evidence of sustained buying momentum.

The pair is trading close to 1.1371, below its 20-period moving average near 1.1372 and beneath session VWAP around 1.1381.

It also remains below the 200-period moving average near 1.1392, leaving the immediate intraday structure tilted to the downside.

EUR/USD attempted to recover towards 1.1390 during the latest session but failed to sustain the move.

The retreat confirms a band of resistance between approximately 1.1380 and 1.1392, with the 1.1400 level providing the next major barrier.

RSI stands around 44, having recovered from levels close to 30.

This indicates that selling pressure has eased and the pair is no longer oversold, but momentum remains below the neutral 50 threshold.

The technical picture is therefore consistent with consolidation near the lows rather than the start of a convincing Euro recovery.

Initial support is located around 1.1368, followed by July’s low near 1.1362.

A sustained break below that area would expose the June low around 1.1325.

On the upside, EUR/USD must first recover above 1.1375 and 1.1381.

A move through the 1.1390-1.1400 region would provide the first meaningful evidence that the Euro is developing greater breakout power.

Image: EUR/USD 15-minute chart showing support at 1.1362, resistance at 1.1380 and the 1.1390-1.1400 breakout zone Why ECB Hikes Have Not Lifted the Euro The lack of a stronger EUR/USD response reflects the fact that much of the hawkish ECB outlook is already priced into the market.

Nordea notes that almost a full rate increase is priced by September, another is largely priced by December and part of a further hike is reflected in March 2027 contracts.

This leaves limited room for interest-rate expectations to move further in the Euro’s favour without a fresh inflation shock or more forceful ECB guidance.

The US Dollar also retains support from higher US rates, geopolitical uncertainty and the risk that elevated energy prices eventually damage global risk appetite.

ING says the current low-volatility environment may be underestimating how quickly Dollar demand could return if financial markets lose their tolerance for higher oil and gas prices.

The Euro is therefore receiving support from ECB tightening expectations, but not enough to overcome simultaneous demand for the Dollar.

Euro Forecast 2026: Latest Bank Projections ING and Nordea both see a hawkish ECB, but the implications for EUR/USD remain restrained.

Nordea expects three further rate increases and a 3.00% deposit rate by March 2027, while ING believes policymakers will keep a September hike in play and defend current market pricing.

These forecasts should limit the risk of an immediate collapse in the Euro.

However, the rate outlook is already heavily reflected in market prices, while geopolitical and energy risks continue to favour the Dollar.

EUR/USD therefore remains vulnerable while below 1.1390-1.1400.

A break beneath 1.1362 would expose the June low near 1.1325, while only a sustained recovery above 1.1400 would suggest that hawkish ECB expectations are finally generating a meaningful upside breakout.

It was not an easy week for the euro. Now, EUR/USD has accumulated a decline of more than 0.4% over the last 2 trading sessions, reflecting significant short-term weakness in the European currency.

For now, selling pressure remains relevant, in a context where the European Central Bank decision failed to generate greater appeal for the euro. In addition, the U.S. dollar continues to show some strength as global risk events drive demand for liquidity and more defensive assets.

If this dynamic continues, selling pressure could continue to shape EUR/USD movements over the next few trading sessions.

Does the ECB fail to support the euro? During the week, the European Central Bank held its interest rate decision. The deposit rate remained unchanged at 2.25%, while the refinancing rate stayed stable at 2.4%.

In its message after the meeting, the central bank maintained a cautious pause. The institution noted that inflationary pressures could remain relevant, but also highlighted that economic dynamics in Europe may not support consistent interest rate increases.

For this reason, the ECB showed a fairly neutral stance toward possible changes in monetary policy. It also emphasized that future decisions will depend on economic data meeting by meeting, without committing to a specific path in the short term.

After the event, the central bank’s neutrality did not generate a relevant increase in the euro’s relative appeal. This is mainly because the ECB did not confirm an outlook for higher rates, while in the United States, the Federal Reserve continues to show signs that it could adopt a more aggressive stance over the coming months.

This difference keeps in place a dynamic that has been relevant for several months in the bond market. Currently, U.S. 10-year Treasury yields remain above 4.6%, while European bond yields barely reach the 3.6% area.

Source: TradingEconomics

The differential between both markets continues to favor dollar-denominated investments. The United States maintains a more attractive bond market, supported by a potentially more aggressive Fed, while Europe faces a more indecisive central bank and a less competitive bond yield.

This dynamic could continue to limit appetite for the euro in the short term. If the rate differential remains in place, EUR/USD could continue to face selling pressure over the next few trading sessions.

Is uncertainty becoming relevant? The week was also marked by important risk events for markets. On one hand, new escalations in the Middle East conflict pushed WTI crude oil above 90 dollars per barrel. On the other hand, new comments from the U.S. government pointed to a global tariff plan of up to 12.5% for several countries.

Both events have revived market concerns about a broader trade conflict and possible additional inflationary pressure. This combination could be affecting risk sentiment and driving flows toward safe-haven assets in the short term.

In this scenario, the behavior of the U.S. dollar is key. In previous months, the currency had already acted as one of the market’s main liquidity safe havens. During this week, that dynamic became evident again in the DXY index, which measures the dollar’s strength against its main peers.

As risks increased across markets, the DXY maintained consistent gains and moved back above the 101-point area, approaching the year’s highs again. This behavior reflects relevant demand for the dollar in an environment of greater uncertainty.

Source: TradingEconomics

The role of the U.S. dollar remains fundamental. If the market once again sees the currency as a liquidity safe haven, and risk events continue to generate uncertainty, demand for the USD could remain strong.

This would make a consistent recovery in the euro more difficult and could continue to generate selling pressure on EUR/USD over the next few trading sessions.

Technical forecast for EUR/USD Source: StoneX, Tradingview

Sideways range begins to emerge: Although the daily EUR/USD chart still maintains a major long-term bearish trend line, a short-term sideways range has also started to form. This range has an upper barrier near 1.14742 and a lower area around 1.13538. If selling pressure fails to stabilize consistently, this sideways structure could remain relevant over the next few trading sessions.
  RSI: Now, the RSI remains below the neutral 50 level, suggesting that selling impulses continue to dominate the average of the last 14 sessions. If this dynamic continues, the indicator could keep highlighting a relevant selling bias in EUR/USD over the next few sessions.
  TRIX: The TRIX also remains below the neutral 0 line, indicating that bearish strength in the exponential moving averages remains relevant. This reading reinforces the possibility that the selling bias could continue to be important in the short term.
  Key levels:

1.14742 – Relevant resistance: This recent weekly high coincides with the area of the 50-period simple moving average. Price movements above this level could start to put the bearish structure and current sideways range at risk, opening room for a more relevant buying bias over the coming weeks.
  1.14125 – Near-term barrier: This level corresponds to an important retracement area on the daily chart. If price fails to move consistently away from this reference, it could continue to highlight a phase of indecision and give more relevance to the current sideways channel over the next few sessions.
  1.13538 – Definitive support: This level corresponds to the 2026 low zone and represents the most important bearish barrier in the short term. Moves below this area would mark new relevant lows for the year and could reinforce a dominant selling bias, potentially extending the long bearish trend line over the coming weeks.
  Written by Julian Pineda, CFA, CMT – Market Analyst

Follow him on: @julianpineda25

US Dollar Talking Points: The US Dollar retains a bullish look from weekly, daily and four-hour charts and next week brings the FOMC, which helped to fire the current rally back in June when they sounded more hawkish than expected. Next week also brings the BoE and BoJ, and USD/JPY has been a large component of that USD breakout of late as the pair has pushed to fresh 40-year highs.

US Dollar The FOMC rate decision in June is what finally helped USD bulls to take a big step forward and from the weekly chart, that move is still quite evident although it started to stall shortly after running into the Fibonacci level at 101.80.

Since then, the pullback retained structure as shown by a bull flag formation, and that led into topside breakout this week after the European Central Bank rate decision.

US Dollar Daily Chart Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview USD Shorter-Term Going into next week we have a bullish short-term trend to go along with that bullish bigger picture backdrop and there’s a few different spots to investigate for possible higher-low support in the Dollar. Nearby is the 101.20 and 101 areas, with 100.90, 100.65 and 100.36-100.44 areas.

Of course, as usual, the big question draws down to USD counterparts as the DXY basket is simply a composition of underlying currencies, so for strength themes to continue to play, we’ll likely need to see continued weakness in markets like the Euro or Japanese Yen.

US Dollar Four-Hour Price Chart Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview USD/JPY

As looked at earlier in the week the Bank of Japan is between a rock and a hard place. It’s difficult to pick between either defending the Yen or supporting growth, especially given the bigger picture for the Japanese economy with a dwindling population and the hangover of decades of deflation and disinflation.

This helps to explain why, to this point, there hasn’t been much more than band aids applied to the matter in the form of interventions which, essentially, have been long opportunities for bulls after the dust has settled.

As we go into next week the BoJ is not expected to hike but I’d be surprised if Ueda doesn’t try to address the matter in some form, as failing to do so could lead to an aggressive continuation of a slide that would force the MoF into action. And that would cost capital in the form of burning finite FX reserves to bid down a move that their own rate policy is encouraging, so more likely from here, at least in my opinion, is we hear Ueda try to sound tough on inflation without doing anything concrete.

The more attractive scenario is if it would be enough to bring a pullback without too much to reverse the trend. Of course, we have the Fed to get through before that so the way that USD markets respond there will have impact to how USD/JPY sets up into the BoJ.

From a technical basis, 162.95 was resistance as an ascending triangle built and it hasn’t yet come in as support, so this would be an ideal area to look for bullish defense. Below that, 161.81 is of note before 160.64 comes into play.

USD/JPY Daily Chart Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview EUR/USD In the USD video on StoneX coming into this week, I shared my opinion that it was EUR/USD dynamics that would determine USD flows and that’s ended up as the case after the European Central Bank rate decision on Thursday.

That led to a bearish break of the bear flag in the EUR/USD pair which went along with the bullish break of the bull flag in the USD.

For next week, bears have an open door to make a move here as we have a bearish short-term setup and a bearish long-term setup, and that Thursday candle was both a bearish engulf as well as the downside break of the flag formation.

EUR/USD Daily Chart Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview GBP/USD In the effort of balance, I often try to find something on the other side of the USD especially when there’s so many items pointing in a single direction. I’ve been tracking GBP/USD for USD-weakness setups and while that was attractive in early trade last week, as the pair broke out to a fresh higher-high on the US PPI report, the backdrop since has been unforgiving as USD strength has come roaring back.

For next week, there’s a BoE rate decision and that could be meaningful, particularly if Warsh sounds less hawkish than he did in June. Given the relative weakness in equities there may be reason for him to push in that direction and if that happens, I think GBP/USD could be one of the more attractive spots to look for Dollar weakness.

That said, price action on the four hour is bearish, so bulls have some work to do here if they’re going to turn this into a rally. There has been a bit of stalling around the 1.3300 but it’s 1.3390 that I would like to see come into play in order to set up that theme, after which higher-low potential could create a set up to work with.

GBP/USD Four-Hour Price Chart Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview --- written by James Stanley, Senior Market Analyst, Global Macro

Rabobank's Senior FX Strategist Jane Foley describes EUR/USD as wary after the July European Central Bank (ECB) meeting. Foley notes that the Euro (EUR) failed to gain support despite a hawkish ECB tone, while the Dollar benefits from safe haven demand and Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations. Foley still expects EUR/USD to trade in a choppy range around 1.14 over a 1-to-3-month horizon.

Euro struggles as Dollar stays supported"Despite the hawkish takeaway from the July ECB policy meeting, the EUR failed to find support."

"CFTC speculators’ position data highlight that since the start of the Iran war, confidence in the EUR has been at a low ebb."

"At the same time, the USD has benefitted from a combination of safe haven flows and hawkish expectations regarding the Fed."

"Continued intensification of the Iran war has the potential to boost safe haven flows and hawkish Fed calls further."

"For now, however, we maintain our view that EUR/USD is likely to trade in a choppy range around the 1.14 level on a 1-to-3-month view."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

MUFG’s Derek Halpenny says the ECB’s latest communication supports a likely September rate hike, now almost fully priced, but warns that Euro support may fade as energy costs rise. He sees increased downside risks for the Euro versus the Dollar, with EUR/USD’s break below 1.1400 and weaker European data contrasting with a more resilient US economy.

ECB path priced as Euro risks grow"The ECB message yesterday in our view certainly pointed to the prospect of another rate hike in September. While the statement acknowledged that energy prices remain close to baseline assumptions, the comment that the “full inflationary impact of the energy shock has yet to play out” gave some balance with concerns still elevated over achieving price stability."

"Bloomberg released one of its sourced articles (from people familiar with the matter) confirming a hike in September unless the inflation outlook improves “markedly”. The fact that some Governors considered whether a hike was needed yesterday reinforces the prospect of a September hike."

"Who knows how the Middle East pans out but even if crude oil prices start to decline again, we are unlikely to see a marked improvement in the outlook by then and hence a hike from the ECB is very likely, consistent with our call. That’s close to fully priced now."

"The US dollar gained broadly yesterday but we certainly see increased downside risks for the euro and the pound if the energy markets continue the current pace of increases. One energy space that looks increasingly different is the natural gas market with prices surging and are already have hit the peaks in March."

"Momentum points to further gains for the US dollar while technically the clearer break of 1.1400 in EUR/USD adds to short-term bullishness. The previous high for DXY at 101.80 is now in sight and a break there would be another bullish sign."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

UOB Global Economics & Markets Research reports that EUR/USD slipped 0.3% to 1.1377 as the Euro (EUR) weakened against the US Dollar (USD) despite the European Central Bank (ECB) leaving rates unchanged and President Lagarde acknowledging some calls for a hike. Markets interpret her comments and Bloomberg’s take as pointing to a bias toward further tightening, with September seen as a likely window for another move.

Lagarde hints at possible September move"The European Central Bank’s (ECB) at its July monetary policy meeting, held its policy interest rates unchanged in a unanimous decision, as widely expected."

"And while the decision was unanimous, ECB President Lagarde told reporters that some colleagues raised the question of whether to act now and pledged to look closely at new data over the coming weeks."

"While the ECB stuck with its standard insistence on taking a “meeting-by-meeting” approach to setting monetary policy, Bloomberg noted the remarks amount to the clearest sign yet that policymakers are minded to keep tightening, not least with war flaring up again in the Middle East, and the Sep meeting is widely seen as a natural point to deliver another move, backed by new quarterly staff forecasts, inflation prints for the two prior months and more economic data including several business surveys."

"The euro also weakened against the USD, even as ECB Lagarde was seen to be signalling a potential tightening in the Sep meeting."

"The EUR/USD closed the session down at 1.1377 (from 1.1412), a 0.3% depreciation."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

EUR/USD trades on the back foot on Thursday as the expanding war in the Middle East pushes Oil prices higher and fuels hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations, boosting demand for the US Dollar (USD). Meanwhile, the European Central Bank’s (ECB) decision to leave interest rates unchanged draws little market reaction.

At the time of writing, the pair trades around 1.1379, near three-week lows. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, trades around 101.40, recovering from an intraday low of 100.94.

From a technical perspective, EUR/USD has formed a base above 1.1350, although downside risks are building. On the daily chart, the pair retains a bearish near-term bias while trading below the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.1415 and the 50-day SMA at 1.1504, with the 100-day SMA at 1.1576 reinforcing the broader bearish structure.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 39 remains below the neutral 50 mark, highlighting persistent bearish momentum. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is marginally positive, suggesting that buying momentum remains tentative despite signs of stabilization.

On the upside, initial resistance is seen at the 21-day SMA near 1.1415, followed by the 50-day SMA at 1.1504 and the 100-day SMA at 1.1576, ahead of the key horizontal resistance at 1.1700.

On the downside, immediate support lies at 1.1350. A sustained break below this level could expose the pair to deeper losses, while holding above it would reinforce the newly established base and keep the door open for a corrective rebound toward the nearby moving averages.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

US Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.29%0.39%0.36%-0.08%0.30%0.68%0.24%EUR-0.29%0.10%0.09%-0.39%0.00%0.41%-0.06%GBP-0.39%-0.10%-0.02%-0.50%-0.10%0.27%-0.15%JPY-0.36%-0.09%0.02%-0.44%-0.07%0.32%-0.13%CAD0.08%0.39%0.50%0.44%0.37%0.77%0.31%AUD-0.30%-0.00%0.10%0.07%-0.37%0.41%-0.04%NZD-0.68%-0.41%-0.27%-0.32%-0.77%-0.41%-0.47%CHF-0.24%0.06%0.15%0.13%-0.31%0.04%0.47% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

EUR/USD Talking Points: The European Central Bank rate decision brought Euro weakness today, as Christine Lagarde sounded unconcerned around inflation which decreased odds for near-term rate hikes from the bank. EUR/USD was holding in a bear flag formation and is now breaking below the bullish channel, indicating the possibility of bearish continuation of the broader trend. As looked at in this week’s USD price action webinar, this is a big component of the USD bullish trend which has also been supported by Yen-weakness and the continued breakout in USD/JPY.

It’s been a rollercoaster of a year for the Euro so far, as the Iran war brought a bid to the currency in April, driven by inflation expectations going higher due to energy prices. The thought there was an energy-vulnerable Europe would be forced into higher prices which would then filter through into other products, and that led to a stronger Euro. But sellers pounced and held the highs around the 1.1850 level, and as US inflation numbers came in higher that dynamic shifted, and then a more-hawkish Fed in response to that inflation helped to bring a bearish trend into the pair in June.

Once below the 1.1500 handle, however, there was a bit of calm starting to show. The pair gyrated higher in a bullish channel, building a bear flag formation, and that led into this week and this morning’s European Central Bank rate decision.

I looked into this in the weekly webinar, and as I shared then, I thought this was a key component for the DXY basket as both the bullish trend in the Dollar and the bearish trend in EUR/USD had been stalled for the past few weeks. Last week brought pullbacks into the mix, helped along by below-target CPI and PPI reports. But the broader trend re-asserted itself as a response to those sell-offs and that has led into today’s setup of continuation.

EUR/USD Daily Chart Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview EUR/USD Strategy From the daily bar above we can also see a bearish engulf formation setting up, which hasn’t yet confirmed as we need the daily bar to complete before we can confidently make that claim. If it does, however, that would be a strong indication of bearish continuation potential, as such formations often show after a notable driver pushes price in the direction of the broader trend. In that scenario, the stage sets for a re-test of the prior low at 1.1325, and after that, a major Fibonacci level comes into play at 1.1275 which helped to set the high back in 2023. Below that 1.1200 is the next notable price and at that point, we’d be veering back towards the middle of the longer-term range in the pair.

EUR/USD Weekly Chart Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview EUR/USD Shorter-Term Given the momentum so far today chasing the move-lower could be a challenge. But, from recent structure, there’s a few key spots to look for lower-high resistance, particularly the 1.1402 Fibonacci level that had previously helped to hold the higher-low before this morning’s breakdown.

The swing high from this morning is also key, as that could serve as a form of invalidation of the short-term bearish momentum, and that plots at 1.1436.

And more aggressively, we have a prior swing low at 1.1378 that could be tracked for those looking for a minor pullback.

EUR/USD Four-Hour Price Chart Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview --- written by James Stanley, Senior Market Analyst, Global Macro

EUR/USD trades around 1.1385 on Thursday after the European Central Bank (ECB) left its key interest rates unchanged, in line with market expectations. Following its July policy meeting, the central bank kept the main refinancing rate at 2.4%, the marginal lending facility rate at 2.65% and the deposit facility rate at 2.25%.

In its policy statement, the ECB said that the outlook for energy prices remains highly volatile and that the full inflationary impact of the recent energy shock has yet to materialize. The central bank reiterated that monetary policy decisions will continue to be taken on a meeting-by-meeting basis, guided by incoming economic data, the inflation outlook and the strength of monetary policy transmission. The ECB also stressed that it is not pre-committing to any particular interest rate path.

Despite the policy hold, the Euro (EUR) remains under pressure against the US Dollar (USD). The Greenback is benefiting from renewed safe-haven demand following a fresh escalation in geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The United States (US) carried out strikes against Iran for the twelfth consecutive night, while Tehran retaliated by targeting US military bases in Jordan and Bahrain.

Tensions have also intensified in energy markets. After disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, attacks by Yemen's Houthis on two Saudi Oil tankers in the Red Sea are now threatening traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Against this backdrop, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Oil trades around $89.50 per barrel, up roughly 28% so far this month.

The sharp rise in energy prices is adding to inflation concerns in the United States and strengthening expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may need to tighten monetary policy. According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets are now pricing a 78% chance of a rate hike at the September meeting, up from 52% one week ago.

The US Dollar is also drawing support from comments by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who warned that military strikes against Iran could intensify as long as Tehran refuses to negotiate, while also urging the Houthis to halt their attacks. This heightened geopolitical uncertainty continues to support safe-haven flows into the Greenback, limiting EUR/USD's ability to recover.

Euro Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.24%0.21%0.26%-0.04%0.21%0.63%0.28%EUR-0.24%-0.02%0.04%-0.30%-0.03%0.40%0.04%GBP-0.21%0.02%0.04%-0.28%-0.02%0.42%0.06%JPY-0.26%-0.04%-0.04%-0.31%-0.07%0.35%0.00%CAD0.04%0.30%0.28%0.31%0.24%0.67%0.32%AUD-0.21%0.03%0.02%0.07%-0.24%0.44%0.09%NZD-0.63%-0.40%-0.42%-0.35%-0.67%-0.44%-0.37%CHF-0.28%-0.04%-0.06%-0.00%-0.32%-0.09%0.37% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

EUR/USD rose to 1.1429 on Thursday, with the US dollar continuing its moderate decline from the previous session. The market is assessing rising inflation risks driven by elevated energy prices against a backdrop of weakening economic data, while seeking further signals on Federal Reserve policy.

At next week's meeting, the regulator is expected to keep rates unchanged. However, uncertainty about future decisions has increased due to the lack of clear guidance from the new Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh.

Dollar declines are being limited by persistent demand for safe-haven assets. Tensions remain high in the Middle East, with Donald Trump stating that the US will strike Iranian infrastructure in response to attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran has threatened retaliation against energy and infrastructure facilities in the region.

Additional concerns have been raised by attacks on tankers in the Red Sea – the first such incidents since late February. Markets are worried about the potential expansion of the conflict and new disruptions to global trade.

Technical analysis

On the H4 chart of EUR/USD, the market has formed a consolidation range around the 1.1410 level, currently extending down to 1.1405 and up to 1.1434. This consolidation range is nearing completion. An upside breakout would suggest a corrective move towards 1.1500, followed by a decline to 1.1260. A direct downside breakout would open the way for a move to 1.1260. The MACD indicator supports this scenario, with its signal line below zero and pointing firmly downwards, reflecting continued bearish momentum.

On the H1 chart, the market has completed an upward move to the 1.1434 level. A consolidation range is currently forming below this level. Today, a move lower to 1.1400 is expected, followed by a move higher to 1.1420, and then a continuation of the downward trend to 1.1370. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this scenario, with its signal line above 80 and pointing downwards towards 20, indicating increasing short-term downside pressure.

ConclusionEUR/USD has recovered modestly as the dollar softened amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty and a lack of clear guidance from the Federal Reserve. Rising energy prices and tensions in the Middle East – including threats of strikes on Iranian infrastructure and renewed attacks in the Red Sea – continue to fuel inflation concerns and risk-off sentiment. Markets expect the Fed to hold rates steady next week, while the outlook beyond that remains uncertain. Technically, the pair may see a temporary corrective move towards 1.1500, but the broader bearish structure remains intact, with downside potential towards 1.1260 in the medium term. The direction will largely depend on geopolitical developments and any future signals from the Fed.

ING’s Francesco Pesole expects the ECB to leave rates unchanged but deliver a hawkish hold, with Middle East tensions and rising European gas prices keeping hawks in control. He argues policymakers aim to preserve market pricing of around 45bp of tightening by year-end, likely via a familiar post-meeting media leak, which should support front-end Euro rates even as ING’s near-term EUR/USD bias remains tilted lower toward 1.1380.

"The ECB is widely expected to leave rates unchanged today, but a surprise hike cannot be fully ruled out."

"Our baseline is a hawkish hold. The re-escalation in the Middle East and European gas prices rising faster than oil prices should keep hawkish voices dominant in the governing council, in our view."

"The aim today could be – once again – to preserve market pricing (45bp by year-end) to limit the risk of inflation expectations de-anchoring."

"Achieving that may well require some indication that a September hike remains in play – more likely through a familiar post-meeting media leak than directly in the press conference."

"A central bank meeting would normally be a prime catalyst for EUR/USD to break out of its tight trading range, but we do not expect that to happen today. Our near-term bias remains tilted to the downside, as we believe FX markets are dangerously complacent about developments in the Gulf. Unless the newsflow becomes more constructive, we look for EUR/USD to slip towards 1.1380 in the coming days."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

The Dollar Index seems to be reacting less to rising crude and has chosen to remain stable around 101, which has led to strength in the Euro above 1.14. Yen to 162.66, Aussie above 0.70, and EURJPY above 186. However, we may expect the Dollar Index to test 100.70 before bouncing back towards 102 in the medium term, indicating that the above-mentioned strength in the currencies may be short-lived. EURINR looks bullish towards 110.50-111 while USDCNY can trade within 6.75-6.7850 for some time. Pound can test 1.33 while below 1.3550. USDINR has risen to close above 96.50 yesterday, which reduces chances of a fall to 96-95.85 and reinforces upside targets of 96.75-97.00. ECB policy meeting is due today, where markets expect the rates to be kept unchanged.

The US Treasury and the German Yields sustain higher. Both remain bullish and have room to rise more from here. The ECB meeting outcome today will need a close watch. The 10Yr GoI has risen back again. That still keeps alive the chances of seeing some more rise from here before the broader downtrend resumes.

Dow and DAX are likely to remain within the 52000-53000 and 24700-25500 ranges respectively. Nifty has turned weak after slipping below 24000 and needs to reclaim this level to revive the bullish outlook towards 24400; otherwise, it could decline towards 23800-23750. Nikkei has pulled back from key resistance and can fall further towards 65000-64000. Shanghai remains firm and can rise gradually towards 3900-3925.

Crude prices remain strong, amid escalating geopolitical tensions. Brent and WTI can extend their rally towards $95 and $100 respectively. Gold is likely to remain within the broad $4000-$4200 range while below $4200. Silver can continue to trade within the $55-$65 range. Copper remains bullish despite the recent correction and can rise further towards $6.60-$6.70. Natural Gas has recovered and is likely to trade within the $2.80-$3.00 range for some time.

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EUR/USD trades around 1.1415 at the time of writing on Wednesday, up 0.15% on the day, but its recovery remains limited after failing to break above 1.1420. The pair maintains a cautious tone as rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to fuel demand for safe-haven assets, limiting the US Dollar (USD) downside.

Investor concerns intensified after another escalation between Washington and Tehran. The United States (US) launched fresh strikes against Iranian targets, while US President Donald Trump warned that any Iranian attack on a vessel in the Strait of Hormuz would trigger US strikes against key Iranian infrastructure, including bridges and power plants. These developments continue to weigh on market sentiment and reinforce risk aversion.

Meanwhile, Oil prices continue their sharp rally, gaining more than 25% since tensions in the region escalated. The surge in energy prices is a headwind for the Eurozone economy, which remains highly sensitive to higher energy costs, limiting the Euro's (EUR) upside potential.

Despite this backdrop, the common currency continues to find support from expectations surrounding the European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy meeting scheduled for Thursday. The ECB is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged, although markets continue to price in additional policy tightening in the coming months if energy-driven inflationary pressures persist.

Euro holds firm as ECB expectations offset energy reboundAnalysts at ING note that EUR/USD has "been performing relatively well despite the rebound in energy prices that has seen natural gas prices retesting the March highs of EUR60/MWh." They argue that "interest rate differentials have probably had a say here, with higher oil prices seeing investors price a more aggressive tightening response from the European Central Bank than the Federal Reserve."

Looking ahead, ING says that, "barring a near-term move towards another cease-fire between the US and Iran, our bias remains for EUR/USD to drift back to 1.1380 and then take its cue from tomorrow's ECB meeting." However, the bank cautions that, "as our team points out in their ECB cheat sheet, it is hard to see the market pricing in even higher ECB rates, regardless of the language delivered at tomorrow's ECB meeting and press conference."

The US Dollar, however, remains supported by safe-haven demand. The US Dollar Index (DXY) holds above 101.00 after recovering part of its earlier daily losses. Investors continue to favor the Greenback as geopolitical risks intensify, even though recent US inflation data has reduced expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could tighten monetary policy in the coming months.

Euro Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.17%-0.06%-0.10%-0.19%0.02%0.05%-0.14%EUR0.17%0.11%0.09%-0.01%0.19%0.24%0.03%GBP0.06%-0.11%-0.02%-0.13%0.07%0.12%-0.08%JPY0.10%-0.09%0.02%-0.10%0.11%0.13%-0.05%CAD0.19%0.01%0.13%0.10%0.21%0.30%0.05%AUD-0.02%-0.19%-0.07%-0.11%-0.21%0.05%-0.17%NZD-0.05%-0.24%-0.12%-0.13%-0.30%-0.05%-0.22%CHF0.14%-0.03%0.08%0.05%-0.05%0.17%0.22% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note EUR/USD under mild downward pressure after slipping toward 1.14, but expects any intraday decline to be limited to a test of 1.1380, with major support at 1.1360 unlikely to be challenged. Over the next 1–3 weeks, they view current price action as range trading between 1.1360 and 1.1465, with a deeper target at 1.1210 if key support breaks.

Euro-Dollar bias soft but rangebound"24-HOUR VIEW: While we expected EUR to “edge lower” yesterday, we indicated that “any decline is likely limited to a test of 1.1390.” However, EUR did not quite test 1.1390 as it eased to a low of 1.1396. While EUR remains under mild downward pressure and could continue to edge lower today; this time around, any decline is likely to be limited to a test of 1.1380. The major support at 1.1360 is unlikely to come under threat. Resistance is at 1.1415; a breach of 1.1430 would suggest that the mild downward pressure has eased."

"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: Our update from yesterday (21 Jul, spot at 1.1415) remains valid. As highlighted, “the current price movements are likely part of a range-trading phase between 1.1360 and 1.1465.”."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

Key Points:GBP/USD pulled back despite the better-than-expected UK Unemployment Rate report. USD/CAD gained ground as traders ignored the rally in precious metals markets. USD/JPY tested the 163.00 level as traders focused on rising Treasury yields.

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U.S. Dollar Moves Higher Amid Rising Demand For Safe-Haven Assets

DXY 210726 4h Chart U.S. Dollar Index gains ground as traders react to rising oil prices. WTI oil moved above the $84.00 level amid rising tensions in the Middle East. Demand for safe-haven assets increased, which was bullish for the U.S. dollar.

Treasury yields are moving higher as bond traders bet that high oil prices will force Fed to raise rates. The yield of 2-year Treasuries climbed above the 4.25% level, while the yield of 10-year Treasuries settled above 4.63%. Rising Treasury yields provided additional support to the American currency.

Currently, U.S. Dollar Index is trying to settle above the resistance at 101.15 – 101.30. In case this attempt is successful, U.S. Dollar Index will move towards the resistance level at 101.80 – 102.00.

EUR/USD Attempts To Settle Below The 1.1400 Level EUR/USD 210726 4h Chart EUR/USD is mostly flat as traders focus on the Euro Area ZEW Economic Sentiment Index report. The report indicated that Economic Sentiment increased from 9.5 in June to 23.4 in July, compared to analyst forecast of 11.2.

If EUR/USD stays below the support level at 1.1420 – 1.1435, it will head towards the next support, which is located in the 1.1350 – 1.1365 range. RSI is in the moderate territory, so there is plenty of room to gain momentum in the near term.

GBP/USD Retreats As Pullback Continues GBP/USD 210726 4h Chart GBP/USD remains under pressure as traders stay focused on first moves of new UK Prime Minister and react to the UK Unemployment Rate report. The report indicated that Unemployment Rate remained unchanged at 4.9% in May, compared to analyst forecast of 5.0%.

The nearest support level for GBP/USD is located in the 1.3335 – 1.3350 range. If GBP/USD manages to settle below the 1.3335 level, it will head towards the next support at 1.3250 – 1.3265.

USD/CAD Gains Ground Amid Rising Treasury Yields USD/CAD 210726 4h Chart USD/CAD is moving higher as traders focus on rising Treasury yields and ignore the rally in precious metals markets. Gold moved above the $4050 level, while silver settled above $59.00. Other commodity-related currencies are mixed in today’s trading session.

In case USD/CAD stays above the 50 MA at 1.4083, it will move towards the resistance at 1.4125 – 1.4140. A successful test of the resistance at 1.4125 – 1.4140 will open the way to the test of the next resistance level at 1.4235 – 1.4250.

USD/JPY Tests Multi-Decade Highs USD/JPY 210726 4h Chart USD/JPY is trying to settle above the 163.00 level as traders ignore intervention risks and focus on the fundamental weakness of the Japanese currency.

Rising Treasury yields put significant pressure on the Japanese yen due to the ultra-dovish policy of the Bank of Japan. High oil prices serve as an additional bearish catalyst as Japanese economy is dependent on energy imports. A combination of higher Treasury yields and rising oil prices pushed the Japanese yen towards multi-decade lows.

In case USD/JPY settles above the 163.00 level, it will head towards the 165.00 level. RSI is in the overbought territory, but there is enough room to gain additional momentum in the near term. Potential BoJ interventions are the key risk for the bulls.

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Vladimir is an independent trader, with over 18 years of experience in the financial markets. His expertise spans a wide range of instruments like stocks, futures, forex, indices, and commodities, forecasting both long-term and short-term market movements.

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United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang sees EUR/USD retaining a mild downside bias after slipping below a prior strong support at 1.1405. Intraday losses are expected to be limited to tests of 1.1390, with resistance at 1.1430–1.1445. Over the coming weeks, the pair is now viewed as range-trading between 1.1360 and 1.1465, with 1.1210 the next target if key supports fail.

Euro-Dollar shifts back into range trading"24-HOUR VIEW: While we indicated yesterday that EUR “could edge lower,” we held the view that “any decline is likely to be contained within a 1.1405/1.1450 range.” EUR subsequently rose to 1.1449, dipped to a low of 1.1402 before settling at 1.1414 (-0.22%). The price action has resulted in a slight increase in downward momentum, and we continue to expect EUR to edge lower today. This time around, any decline is likely limited to a test of 1.1390. Resistance is at 1.1430; a breach of 1.1445 would suggest that the current mild downward pressure has eased."

"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: Last Thursday (16 Jul, spot at 1.1470), we highlighted that while EUR “is likely to trade with an upside bias, it is too early to determine whether there is sufficient momentum for EUR to reach the significant resistance level at 1.1520.” Yesterday, EUR dipped below our ‘strong support’ level at 1.1405 with a low of 1.1402. The breach of our ‘strong support’ level indicates that upward momentum has faded. The current price movements are likely part of a range-trading phase, which is expected to be between 1.1360 and 1.1465."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

EURUSD: ⬇️ Sell

– EURUSD reversed from resistance level 1.1465

– Likely to fall to support level 1.1370

EURUSD currency pair recently reversed from the resistance level 1.1465 (top of earlier wave a) intersecting with the 50% Fibonacci correction of the downward impulse from June.

The downward reversal from the resistance level 1.1465 (also strengthened by the upper daily Bollinger band) started the active impulse wave iii.

Given the clear daily downtrend, EURUSD currency pair can be expected to fall further to the next support level 1.1370 (low of earlier wave b).

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EUR/USD edges lower on Monday after reversing earlier gains as markets swing between risk-on and risk-off sentiment. At the time of writing, the pair trades around 1.1408, easing from an intraday high of 1.1449.

Middle East headlines shape price action at the start of the week in the absence of major economic data releases. The Euro (EUR) climbed earlier in the day as the US Dollar (USD) weakened after Reuters reported that mediators had proposed a 10-day pause in strikes to help revive the interim US-Iran deal. Officials from both countries also signalled that they remained open to diplomacy.

However, sentiment turned cautious again after a separate Reuters report said Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis had declared an immediate naval blockade against Saudi Arabia. Markets quickly rotated back toward the US Dollar, wiping out EUR/USD’s earlier gains.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, trades around 101.00, recovering from an intraday low of 100.65.

Oil prices have rebounded to their highest level in more than a month since fighting between the US and Iran resumed earlier in July, keeping energy-driven inflation risks in focus and raising the possibility that price pressures could pick up again after cooling in both the Eurozone and the US in June.

Against this backdrop, markets expect both the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Federal Reserve (Fed) to maintain a tight policy stance. The ECB is widely expected to leave its Deposit Facility Rate unchanged at 2.25% on Thursday, although markets are fully pricing in a rate hike by September. Meanwhile, the CME FedWatch Tool shows that the probability of a Fed rate hike in September stands at around 63%.

“Tighter monetary policy when the Eurozone economy is still operating below potential is more likely to limit EUR downside than push the currency higher because it raises the likelihood of a downward adjustment to ECB rate expectations,” Brown Brothers Harriman (BBH) analysts said.

ECB FAQs The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for the region. The ECB primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means keeping inflation at around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will usually result in a stronger Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.

In extreme situations, the European Central Bank can enact a policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the ECB prints Euros and uses them to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Euro. QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objective of price stability. The ECB used it during the Great Financial Crisis in 2009-11, in 2015 when inflation remained stubbornly low, as well as during the covid pandemic.

Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the European Central Bank (ECB) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the ECB stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive (or bullish) for the Euro.

DBS Group Research’s Philip Wee argues that the Euro (EUR) may find support in coming weeks as markets reassess geopolitical risks and central bank divergence. He highlights investor unease over Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh’s push to end forward guidance, contrasting it with the European Central Bank’s (ECB) clearer framework. The analysis focuses on EUR/USD’s potential to break its recent trading range.

ECB clarity contrasts Fed uncertainty push"Against this volatile geopolitical backdrop, the coming fortnight may underpin the EUR, driven by a market preference for the European Central Bank’s new and transparent Framework Guidance over Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh’s campaign to end forward guidance."

"The ECB has flagged a tactical pause at its governing council meeting on July 23. However, the market is currently pricing in an 87.8% chance of a 25-bps hike to 2.50% at the subsequent September 10 meeting. If the ECB affirms this trajectory, the EUR/USD pair could break above this month’s tight range of 1.1360 to 1.1480."

"Conversely, Warsh’s testimony to US lawmakers last week confirmed his intention to restore an "uncertainty premium" to the market’s pricing for a September hike. Warsh plans to use the July 28-29 FOMC meeting to foster an "honest internal discussion" with his colleagues at the Fed."

"Markets will become anxious that slashing the FOMC statement and Warsh’s refusal to provide his own forecasts at his first FOMC meeting in June could be a prelude to stripping the dots and the Summary of Economic Projections of their market-moving authority at the September meeting."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

The Euro (EUR) trades marginally lower to near 1.1432 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Monday. The major currency pair edges down as the US Dollar recovers its early losses.

At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades marginally higher to near 100.77.

The Greenback bounces back even as oil prices have retreated amid hopes of de-escalation in ongoing military aggression between the United States (US) and Iran. Higher oil prices de-anchor inflation projections that prompt Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate expectations, a scenario that is favorable for the US Dollar.

This week, investors will pay close attention to the European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy announcement on Thursday, in which policymakers are expected to leave policy rates steady. In the June policy meeting, officials raised key rates by 25 basis points (bps), but guided a meeting-by-meeting approach.

Latest remarks from ECB officials signaled that more interest rate hikes could be needed as price pressures will likely stay above the central bank’s 2% target for longer.

EUR/USD technical analysis

EUR/USD trades slightly lower at around 1.1437, holding a mildly bearish near-term tone as it remains just under the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.1441, which now caps the upside. The price action suggests a Bearish Flag formation, which is a trend-continuation pattern. As price action suggests that the prior move was on the downside before a consolidation, the odds of further decline are significantly higher.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at about 47 leans slightly soft and hints that upside momentum is waning while the pair trades beneath its immediate dynamic resistance.

On the topside, initial resistance is located at the 20-day EMA around 1.1441, and a sustained break above this cap would expose the channel top near 1.1516 as the next hurdle. On the downside, the lower boundary of the rising channel at 1.1393 is the first notable support, and a decisive drop through this floor would weaken the constructive channel structure and open the door for further decline towards 1.1300.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

ECB FAQs The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for the region. The ECB primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means keeping inflation at around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will usually result in a stronger Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.

In extreme situations, the European Central Bank can enact a policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the ECB prints Euros and uses them to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Euro. QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objective of price stability. The ECB used it during the Great Financial Crisis in 2009-11, in 2015 when inflation remained stubbornly low, as well as during the covid pandemic.

Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the European Central Bank (ECB) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the ECB stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive (or bullish) for the Euro.

Dollar Index Price Chart – Source: Tradingview The US dollar trades near 100.75 on the 4-hour chart following a relief from near 100.35 last week. Price has a clear trendline overhead that caps the move, plus price trades near and below 50-EMA (100.84) & 100-EMA (100.84), so the overall near-term move seems still under pressure despite the recent relief.

The first resistance is at 100.89, which is the trendline and at the 61.8% retracement level. If price can sustain a move past 100.89, the target will be 101.03, then 101.22, and 101.46. The nearest support is at 100.69. Further support will be near 100.61, 100.51, then the recent support near 100.35. The RSI is at about 49 and it indicates that the market momentum is balanced at current price as the buyers and sellers are having equal strength at this time.

For now, my view is that DXY is consolidating beneath the resistance and trendline. If price can get above the trendline, then the chance of broader recovery will get more favorable. If sellers push price away from current level, then there will be higher chance of seeing another test of 100.61 and 100.35 support.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: Bullish Structure Above The Rising Trendline

Summary:

EUR/USD traded near 1.1440 after recovering from recent lows, supported by expectations that the European Central Bank could raise interest rates again in September. The euro’s advance remains limited as escalating US-Iran tensions and oil prices above $90 increase safe-haven demand for the US dollar. EUR/USD must clear the 1.1470–1.1500 resistance zone to strengthen its recovery, while 1.1400 remains the first major support level. The EUR/USD exchange rate held near 1.1440 on Monday as traders weighed the prospect of another European Central Bank interest rate increase against renewed demand for the US dollar amid escalating tensions between Washington and Tehran.

The currency pair was trading around 1.1437 at the time of writing, having pulled back from last week’s high near 1.1480. The euro remains supported by expectations that the ECB will retain a hawkish bias at this week’s policy meeting, even though policymakers are widely expected to leave borrowing costs unchanged.

However, the dollar has regained some ground as the US-Iran conflict intensifies and disruption to oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz pushes energy prices higher. Brent crude rose above $90 a barrel, reviving inflation concerns and strengthening the case for the Federal Reserve to maintain higher interest rates.

Why Is EUR/USD Rising Today? The euro has found modest support from changing expectations for ECB monetary policy.

The ECB is expected to keep its deposit rate unchanged at 2.25% when officials meet on Thursday. Nevertheless, a Reuters poll found that most economists expect another rate increase later this year, with September emerging as the most likely timing.

That outlook has become more credible following the renewed increase in energy prices. Eurozone inflation eased to 2.8% in June but remains above the ECB’s 2% target, while rising oil and gas costs threaten to create another wave of price pressure.

Consequently, the euro has retained support even as the ECB prepares to pause after its previous rate increase. Traders will pay close attention to President Christine Lagarde’s comments for any indication that September remains a live option.

Will the ECB Raise Interest Rates in September? A September rate increase is increasingly becoming the central question for the EUR/USD forecast.

Around 70% of economists surveyed by Reuters expect the ECB to raise rates once more before the end of 2026. However, policymakers must balance renewed inflation risks against a weak eurozone economy, which expanded by only 0.2% during the latest quarter.

The ECB’s challenge is that higher energy prices can simultaneously lift inflation and weaken economic activity. Businesses face higher operating costs, while households have less disposable income available for other goods and services.

A clearly hawkish message from Lagarde could help EUR/USD challenge 1.1500. Conversely, a more cautious tone that emphasises weak growth could encourage traders to reduce expectations for a September move and weigh on the euro.

How Are US-Iran Tensions Affecting EUR/USD? Escalating hostilities between the United States and Iran are preventing a stronger euro recovery.

The United States carried out a ninth consecutive night of strikes, while Iran warned that the Strait of Hormuz would remain unsafe for oil, gas and petrochemical shipments. Ship traffic through the strategically important waterway has declined sharply, contributing to Brent crude’s move above $90 and WTI’s rise beyond $84.

The development creates two headwinds for EUR/USD.

First, geopolitical uncertainty increases demand for the US dollar as investors move toward highly liquid safe-haven assets. Second, Europe is particularly exposed to imported energy costs, meaning a sustained oil shock could weaken the eurozone growth outlook even while forcing the ECB to keep monetary policy restrictive. The dollar has therefore remained resilient despite recent evidence that US inflation had begun to moderate. Markets are also pricing an increased possibility of another Federal Reserve rate rise before the end of the year.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Can the Euro Break Above 1.1500? The one-hour chart shows EUR/USD consolidating near 1.1437 after its retreat from the 1.1480 area. Price is hovering around the middle Bollinger Band near 1.1436, indicating that neither buyers nor sellers currently have firm control.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator is beginning to stabilise after turning negative during the latest pullback. However, momentum remains limited, suggesting that the pair may continue trading sideways unless a fresh fundamental catalyst emerges.

Immediate resistance is located between 1.1445 and 1.1470, where the upper Bollinger Band and recent intraday highs are concentrated. A sustained move above 1.1470 would expose the psychologically important 1.1500 level.

A close above 1.1500 would improve the short-term structure and could open a move toward 1.1580 and 1.1620.

On the downside, 1.1425 provides initial support near the lower Bollinger Band. The more important level is 1.1400, which has repeatedly attracted buyers. A decisive break beneath 1.1400 would weaken the recovery and bring 1.1375 back into focus, followed by 1.1320.

EUR/USD Outlook Ahead of the ECB Rate Decision The immediate EUR/USD outlook hinges on whether the ECB validates market expectations for another rate increase in September.

A hawkish policy statement could help the euro test 1.1470 and 1.1500, particularly if Lagarde signals that higher energy prices pose a material threat to inflation. However, the dollar is likely to remain supported while the US-Iran conflict disrupts energy markets and drives investors toward safety.

For now, EUR/USD appears caught between a more hawkish ECB outlook and a stronger geopolitical bid for the dollar. That leaves the pair vulnerable to further consolidation until Thursday’s ECB decision provides a clearer policy signal.

Why is EUR/USD rising today?

EUR/USD is finding support as investors expect the European Central Bank to retain a hawkish stance and potentially raise interest rates again in September. However, gains remain limited by safe-haven demand for the US dollar.

How will the ECB interest rate decision affect EUR/USD?

A hawkish ECB decision would likely support the euro by strengthening expectations for higher interest rates. A cautious statement focused on weak economic growth could weigh on EUR/USD and bring the 1.1400 support level back into focus.

The EUR/USD pair trades in positive territory around 1.1445 during the early European trading hours on Monday, bolstered by a hawkish tone from the European Central Bank (ECB). The ECB is expected to hold interest rates on ThThursday butill hike for the second time this year in September as a renewed energy price surge raises the risk of more intense inflation pressures, according to Reuters.

However, escalating tensions in the Middle East could boost safe-haven flows, supporting the US Dollar (USD) against the Euro (EUR). Bloomberg reported that the US has launched the ninth night of Iran strikes, with Washington saying that airstrikes on Sunday aimed to "punish" Iran over the first US military deaths since renewed hostilities with the Islamic Republic began. 

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said that the Strait of Hormuz will not be safe for petrochemical products or 'single drop of oil and gas' transit as long as US actions in the region continue.

In the daily chart, EUR/USD keeps a bearish near-term tone as it holds beneath the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). Price sits just under the upper Bollinger Band near, hinting that the latest bounce is running into overhead supply, while the middle Bollinger Band offers nearby dynamic support. The Relative Strength Index (14) at roughly 48 remains below the neutral 50 line, suggesting only modest upside momentum and reinforcing the idea of a capped recovery while the pair trades under its longer-term average.

On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the upper Bollinger Band around 1.1470, with a stronger barrier higher up at the 100-day SMA near 1.1585, where selling interest is likely to re-emerge if tested. On the downside, initial support is seen at the middle Bollinger Band around 1.1415, followed by the lower Bollinger Band near 1.1358; a clear break below this lower band would open the door to a continuation of the broader decline.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Euro FAQs The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).

The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.

Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.

Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.

Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.