The Euro remains supported by expectations of further ECB tightening, but EUR/USD is still struggling to escape the lower end of its July range. EUR/USD traded close to 1.1371 at the end of the latest session, leaving the pair near July’s low after a subdued week for the single currency.
The Euro has fallen in six of the past eight completed sessions and is down around 0.4% for July, having retreated from a monthly high near 1.1481 to within one cent of June’s 1.1325 low.
Both ING and Nordea expect the European Central Bank to maintain a hawkish bias, with further interest-rate increases still likely.
However, neither the rate outlook nor the latest ECB meeting has generated enough momentum to push EUR/USD out of its narrow trading range.
ING expects the pair to remain supported by higher Eurozone rates, but retains a near-term downside bias towards 1.1380.
Nordea goes further, forecasting three additional 25-basis-point rate increases that would lift the ECB deposit rate from 2.25% to 3.00% by March 2027.
Latest — Exchange Rates:
Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD): 1.137117 (-0.05%)
Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD): 1.332498 (+0.09%)
Dollar to Yen (USD/JPY): 163.85169 (0.00%)
ING Sees September Hike Remaining in Play ING had expected the ECB to leave rates unchanged while preserving the hawkish market pricing already embedded in Eurozone interest rates.
Its baseline was for a hawkish hold, with policymakers attempting to prevent inflation expectations from becoming unanchored as European gas and global energy prices remain elevated.
“The aim today could be – once again – to preserve market pricing to limit the risk of inflation expectations de-anchoring,” says ING FX strategist Francesco Pesole.
ING argued that achieving this might require a clear indication that a September rate increase remained possible, either through the press conference or subsequent guidance.
The bank noted that the market had already priced approximately 45 basis points of tightening by the end of 2026, setting a relatively high hurdle for the ECB to deliver an additional Euro-positive surprise.
“The hawkish bar set by the market via pricing isn’t low,” says Pesole.
ING nevertheless expected a firm ECB stance to limit the downside for short-dated Eurozone rates and, by extension, the Euro.
The difficulty is that supportive rate differentials have not translated into a decisive EUR/USD advance.
“A central bank meeting would normally be a prime catalyst for EUR/USD to break out of its tight trading range, but we do not expect that to happen,” ING says.
The bank retained a near-term downside bias, arguing that currency markets remained too relaxed about the potential consequences of further escalation in the Gulf.
“Unless the newsflow becomes more constructive, we look for EUR/USD to slip towards 1.1380 in the coming days.”
That target has already been reached, with the pair ending the latest session near 1.1371.
Nordea Forecasts Three More ECB Rate Increases Nordea believes the ECB remains in a genuine tightening cycle rather than delivering one or two isolated increases.
The bank forecasts 25-basis-point hikes in September, December and March 2027, which would raise the deposit rate to 3.00%.
“The ECB did not touch rates today, but the message was in line with more rate hikes to come,” Nordea says.
“Our updated forecast still sees three more rate increases, but at a quarterly pace as opposed to a faster speed before.”
Nordea says the ECB’s latest communication left the door “wide open” to a September increase.
It highlights the central bank’s assessment that energy prices remained close to the assumptions used in its June forecast, which showed core inflation staying above 2% throughout the projection period even with two further rate increases already included.
The bank’s conviction does not depend on another major escalation in the Middle East or a renewed surge in oil.
Instead, Nordea expects broader price pressures and a relatively resilient Eurozone economy to keep the ECB tightening for longer.
“We think that we are amidst a hiking cycle rather than one or two isolated rate moves, and continue to expect the ECB to raise rates three more times.”
The bank has slowed the expected pace of tightening because oil prices have fallen from their earlier highs and the growth outlook has become less certain.
A rapid improvement in the geopolitical backdrop could reduce the need for further action, while a prolonged conflict and renewed energy-price increase could produce faster or additional rate increases.
Image: Nordea chart showing 25-basis-point ECB hikes in September, December and March 2027, taking the deposit rate to 3.00% - Courtesy of Nordea. Energy Inflation May Take Time to Spread Nordea argues that markets and policymakers may still be underestimating the delayed second-round effects of higher energy costs.
Its research notes that during the previous inflation cycle it took several months for rising energy prices to feed into food, goods and services inflation.
It also took considerably longer for forward inflation expectations to peak than for spot inflation itself.
“We still see risks biased towards more second-round impact on inflation than what markets and the ECB expect,” Nordea says.
This possibility supports the case for further tightening even if the immediate increase in oil and gas prices begins to reverse.
The bank also points to inflation expectations that remain above the ECB’s target across several measures.
Its report shows five-year market inflation expectations around 2.26%, while household and large-company measures remain closer to 2.9%.
Nordea expects Eurozone growth of approximately 1% in 2026, although it acknowledges that the risks are tilted to the downside.
The bank nevertheless says the economy has remained more resilient than weak purchasing managers’ surveys would suggest.
Manufacturing output and retail sales increased in the available April and May data, while second-quarter growth may have been around 0.3%.
Nordea expects household consumption to remain the primary source of positive growth, supplemented by investment in technology and defence.
EUR/USD Technical Outlook Despite the increasingly hawkish ECB outlook, the EUR/USD chart shows little evidence of sustained buying momentum.
The pair is trading close to 1.1371, below its 20-period moving average near 1.1372 and beneath session VWAP around 1.1381.
It also remains below the 200-period moving average near 1.1392, leaving the immediate intraday structure tilted to the downside.
EUR/USD attempted to recover towards 1.1390 during the latest session but failed to sustain the move.
The retreat confirms a band of resistance between approximately 1.1380 and 1.1392, with the 1.1400 level providing the next major barrier.
RSI stands around 44, having recovered from levels close to 30.
This indicates that selling pressure has eased and the pair is no longer oversold, but momentum remains below the neutral 50 threshold.
The technical picture is therefore consistent with consolidation near the lows rather than the start of a convincing Euro recovery.
Initial support is located around 1.1368, followed by July’s low near 1.1362.
A sustained break below that area would expose the June low around 1.1325.
On the upside, EUR/USD must first recover above 1.1375 and 1.1381.
A move through the 1.1390-1.1400 region would provide the first meaningful evidence that the Euro is developing greater breakout power.
Image: EUR/USD 15-minute chart showing support at 1.1362, resistance at 1.1380 and the 1.1390-1.1400 breakout zone Why ECB Hikes Have Not Lifted the Euro The lack of a stronger EUR/USD response reflects the fact that much of the hawkish ECB outlook is already priced into the market.
Nordea notes that almost a full rate increase is priced by September, another is largely priced by December and part of a further hike is reflected in March 2027 contracts.
This leaves limited room for interest-rate expectations to move further in the Euro’s favour without a fresh inflation shock or more forceful ECB guidance.
The US Dollar also retains support from higher US rates, geopolitical uncertainty and the risk that elevated energy prices eventually damage global risk appetite.
ING says the current low-volatility environment may be underestimating how quickly Dollar demand could return if financial markets lose their tolerance for higher oil and gas prices.
The Euro is therefore receiving support from ECB tightening expectations, but not enough to overcome simultaneous demand for the Dollar.
Euro Forecast 2026: Latest Bank Projections ING and Nordea both see a hawkish ECB, but the implications for EUR/USD remain restrained.
Nordea expects three further rate increases and a 3.00% deposit rate by March 2027, while ING believes policymakers will keep a September hike in play and defend current market pricing.
These forecasts should limit the risk of an immediate collapse in the Euro.
However, the rate outlook is already heavily reflected in market prices, while geopolitical and energy risks continue to favour the Dollar.
EUR/USD therefore remains vulnerable while below 1.1390-1.1400.
A break beneath 1.1362 would expose the June low near 1.1325, while only a sustained recovery above 1.1400 would suggest that hawkish ECB expectations are finally generating a meaningful upside breakout.
ING’s forecast for EUR/USD to retreat towards 1.1380 has already been realised, with the pair now testing its lowest levels of July as higher energy prices support the US Dollar. The Euro-to-Dollar exchange rate traded close to 1.1371 late on Friday, extending its retreat from the mid-July peak near 1.1470.
EUR/USD fell 0.30% on Thursday and has now declined in seven of the past eight completed sessions.
The pair is also down by around 0.3% for July, having traded between 1.1362 and 1.1481 during the month.
ING had expected EUR/USD to drift back towards 1.1380 as elevated energy prices continued to favour the Dollar.
That objective has now been reached and modestly exceeded, leaving the market focused on whether support around 1.1360 can prevent a deeper Euro decline.
Latest — Exchange Rates:
Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD): 1.137117 (-0.05%)
Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD): 1.332498 (+0.09%)
Dollar to Yen (USD/JPY): 163.85169 (0.00%)
ING Sees US Dollar Support from Higher Energy Prices ING describes a global investment environment in which equity-market sentiment remains relatively resilient even as higher energy prices push interest rates upwards.
According to the bank, investors are favouring currencies that provide both attractive yields and some protection against a further escalation in energy costs.
“The dollar and the Norwegian krone remain the go-to currencies here,” says Chris Turner, ING’s Global Head of Markets and Regional Head of Research for the UK and Central and Eastern Europe.
The Dollar’s yield advantage and the relative resilience of the US economy leave it better positioned than lower-yielding currencies during a period of elevated oil and gas prices.
ING expects the Dollar Index to remain supported within its 100.35-101.80 range and continues to favour the upside over the short term.
Higher energy prices are particularly relevant for EUR/USD because the Eurozone is a major net energy importer.
An extended increase in oil and natural gas costs can weaken the region’s terms of trade, squeeze household spending and raise costs for European businesses, while simultaneously supporting the Dollar through higher US yields and safe-haven demand.
Image: EUR/USD 15-minute technical chart showing support around 1.1360 and resistance between 1.1380 and 1.1392 EUR/USD Reaches ING’s 1.1380 Target Analysts at ING noted that EUR/USD had initially held up relatively well despite the rebound in energy prices and a rise in European natural gas towards €60 per megawatt hour.
Interest-rate expectations helped explain that resilience.
Higher energy costs encouraged investors to price a more aggressive tightening response from the European Central Bank than from the Federal Reserve, temporarily supporting Eurozone yields and the single currency.
However, ING questioned how much further ECB expectations could move in a hawkish direction.
“It is hard to see the market pricing in even higher ECB rates, regardless of the language delivered at tomorrow’s ECB meeting and press conference,” says Turner.
“Barring a near-term move towards another cease-fire between the US and Iran, our bias remains for EUR/USD to drift back to 1.1380.”
That forecast has proved accurate, with EUR/USD falling through 1.1380 and approaching July’s low around 1.1362.
The question now is whether the retreat represents the completion of the corrective move or the beginning of a more sustained decline.
EUR/USD Technical Outlook Remains Fragile The short-term chart continues to favour the US Dollar, although the Euro is attempting to stabilise near the bottom of its recent range.
EUR/USD trades below its 20-period moving average near 1.1372 and beneath session VWAP around 1.1381.
The pair is also well below the 200-period moving average near 1.1392, confirming that the immediate intraday trend remains bearish.
Repeated failures between 1.1390 and 1.1400 have established this region as significant resistance. The Euro would need to recover above this area to suggest that the sequence of lower short-term highs has been broken.
RSI has recovered to approximately 44 after previously approaching oversold territory.
The indicator remains below the neutral 50 level, showing that bearish momentum is still present, but the recovery from its lows suggests selling pressure is no longer accelerating.
This is consistent with a market consolidating after a decline rather than one already embarking on a convincing rebound.
Initial resistance is located around 1.1374, followed by ING’s former target at 1.1380.
A recovery above 1.1380 would allow EUR/USD to challenge 1.1387 and the 200-period moving average close to 1.1392.
The 1.1400 area then represents the more important technical barrier. A sustained break above it would weaken the immediate bearish case and suggest the pair is returning to a broader range.
On the downside, July’s low at 1.1362 is the key near-term support.
A decisive break beneath that level would confirm that the decline has extended beyond ING’s original objective and expose the lower portion of June’s range.
Energy Market Remains the Key Risk ING’s EUR/USD assessment was conditional on the geopolitical and energy-market backdrop.
A ceasefire or meaningful de-escalation between the US and Iran would reduce the energy-price premium supporting the Dollar and could allow the Euro to recover.
The opposite scenario presents the larger downside risk.
A renewed rise in oil or European gas prices would probably reinforce demand for the Dollar while increasing concerns over the Eurozone growth outlook.
The policy implications are also complicated.
Higher energy prices can raise headline inflation and encourage expectations of tighter ECB policy, but they simultaneously weaken real incomes and economic activity.
ING’s argument is that the market has limited capacity to price substantially more ECB tightening, reducing the potential support available to the Euro from interest-rate expectations.
The Federal Reserve, meanwhile, benefits from a stronger US growth backdrop and a currency that tends to attract demand when geopolitical uncertainty increases.
EUR/USD Technical Forecast ING’s move towards 1.1380 has been completed, but the short-term technical picture does not yet provide a convincing signal that the decline is over.
EUR/USD remains below its main intraday moving averages and continues to trade near the bottom of July’s range.
The 1.1362 monthly low is now the immediate dividing line.
Holding above this level could produce a corrective recovery towards 1.1380 and potentially 1.1390, particularly if energy prices ease or geopolitical tensions subside.
A break below 1.1362 would instead strengthen the Dollar’s advantage and leave EUR/USD vulnerable to a deeper extension lower.
The base case is therefore for the Euro to remain under pressure while below 1.1390-1.1400, with energy prices and developments in the Gulf determining whether the pair stabilises or resumes its decline.
EUR/USD zůstává pod tlakem po týdnu, kdy euro oslabilo o více než 0,4 % za poslední 2 obchodní seance. ECB nepřinesla euru větší podporu, zatímco dolar zůstává silný.
It was not an easy week for the euro. Now, EUR/USD has accumulated a decline of more than 0.4% over the last 2 trading sessions, reflecting significant short-term weakness in the European currency.
For now, selling pressure remains relevant, in a context where the European Central Bank decision failed to generate greater appeal for the euro. In addition, the U.S. dollar continues to show some strength as global risk events drive demand for liquidity and more defensive assets.
If this dynamic continues, selling pressure could continue to shape EUR/USD movements over the next few trading sessions.
Does the ECB fail to support the euro? During the week, the European Central Bank held its interest rate decision. The deposit rate remained unchanged at 2.25%, while the refinancing rate stayed stable at 2.4%.
In its message after the meeting, the central bank maintained a cautious pause. The institution noted that inflationary pressures could remain relevant, but also highlighted that economic dynamics in Europe may not support consistent interest rate increases.
For this reason, the ECB showed a fairly neutral stance toward possible changes in monetary policy. It also emphasized that future decisions will depend on economic data meeting by meeting, without committing to a specific path in the short term.
After the event, the central bank’s neutrality did not generate a relevant increase in the euro’s relative appeal. This is mainly because the ECB did not confirm an outlook for higher rates, while in the United States, the Federal Reserve continues to show signs that it could adopt a more aggressive stance over the coming months.
This difference keeps in place a dynamic that has been relevant for several months in the bond market. Currently, U.S. 10-year Treasury yields remain above 4.6%, while European bond yields barely reach the 3.6% area.
Source: TradingEconomics
The differential between both markets continues to favor dollar-denominated investments. The United States maintains a more attractive bond market, supported by a potentially more aggressive Fed, while Europe faces a more indecisive central bank and a less competitive bond yield.
This dynamic could continue to limit appetite for the euro in the short term. If the rate differential remains in place, EUR/USD could continue to face selling pressure over the next few trading sessions.
Is uncertainty becoming relevant? The week was also marked by important risk events for markets. On one hand, new escalations in the Middle East conflict pushed WTI crude oil above 90 dollars per barrel. On the other hand, new comments from the U.S. government pointed to a global tariff plan of up to 12.5% for several countries.
Both events have revived market concerns about a broader trade conflict and possible additional inflationary pressure. This combination could be affecting risk sentiment and driving flows toward safe-haven assets in the short term.
In this scenario, the behavior of the U.S. dollar is key. In previous months, the currency had already acted as one of the market’s main liquidity safe havens. During this week, that dynamic became evident again in the DXY index, which measures the dollar’s strength against its main peers.
As risks increased across markets, the DXY maintained consistent gains and moved back above the 101-point area, approaching the year’s highs again. This behavior reflects relevant demand for the dollar in an environment of greater uncertainty.
Source: TradingEconomics
The role of the U.S. dollar remains fundamental. If the market once again sees the currency as a liquidity safe haven, and risk events continue to generate uncertainty, demand for the USD could remain strong.
This would make a consistent recovery in the euro more difficult and could continue to generate selling pressure on EUR/USD over the next few trading sessions.
Technical forecast for EUR/USD Source: StoneX, Tradingview
Sideways range begins to emerge: Although the daily EUR/USD chart still maintains a major long-term bearish trend line, a short-term sideways range has also started to form. This range has an upper barrier near 1.14742 and a lower area around 1.13538. If selling pressure fails to stabilize consistently, this sideways structure could remain relevant over the next few trading sessions.
RSI: Now, the RSI remains below the neutral 50 level, suggesting that selling impulses continue to dominate the average of the last 14 sessions. If this dynamic continues, the indicator could keep highlighting a relevant selling bias in EUR/USD over the next few sessions.
TRIX: The TRIX also remains below the neutral 0 line, indicating that bearish strength in the exponential moving averages remains relevant. This reading reinforces the possibility that the selling bias could continue to be important in the short term.
Key levels:
1.14742 – Relevant resistance: This recent weekly high coincides with the area of the 50-period simple moving average. Price movements above this level could start to put the bearish structure and current sideways range at risk, opening room for a more relevant buying bias over the coming weeks.
1.14125 – Near-term barrier: This level corresponds to an important retracement area on the daily chart. If price fails to move consistently away from this reference, it could continue to highlight a phase of indecision and give more relevance to the current sideways channel over the next few sessions.
1.13538 – Definitive support: This level corresponds to the 2026 low zone and represents the most important bearish barrier in the short term. Moves below this area would mark new relevant lows for the year and could reinforce a dominant selling bias, potentially extending the long bearish trend line over the coming weeks.
Written by Julian Pineda, CFA, CMT – Market Analyst
EUR/USD ve čtvrtek vzrostl na 1,1429, protože dolar dál oslaboval. Trh sleduje geopolitické napětí a očekává, že Fed příští týden sazby ponechá beze změny.
EUR/USD rose to 1.1429 on Thursday, with the US dollar continuing its moderate decline from the previous session. The market is assessing rising inflation risks driven by elevated energy prices against a backdrop of weakening economic data, while seeking further signals on Federal Reserve policy.
At next week's meeting, the regulator is expected to keep rates unchanged. However, uncertainty about future decisions has increased due to the lack of clear guidance from the new Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh.
Dollar declines are being limited by persistent demand for safe-haven assets. Tensions remain high in the Middle East, with Donald Trump stating that the US will strike Iranian infrastructure in response to attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran has threatened retaliation against energy and infrastructure facilities in the region.
Additional concerns have been raised by attacks on tankers in the Red Sea – the first such incidents since late February. Markets are worried about the potential expansion of the conflict and new disruptions to global trade.
Technical analysis
On the H4 chart of EUR/USD, the market has formed a consolidation range around the 1.1410 level, currently extending down to 1.1405 and up to 1.1434. This consolidation range is nearing completion. An upside breakout would suggest a corrective move towards 1.1500, followed by a decline to 1.1260. A direct downside breakout would open the way for a move to 1.1260. The MACD indicator supports this scenario, with its signal line below zero and pointing firmly downwards, reflecting continued bearish momentum.
On the H1 chart, the market has completed an upward move to the 1.1434 level. A consolidation range is currently forming below this level. Today, a move lower to 1.1400 is expected, followed by a move higher to 1.1420, and then a continuation of the downward trend to 1.1370. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this scenario, with its signal line above 80 and pointing downwards towards 20, indicating increasing short-term downside pressure.
ConclusionEUR/USD has recovered modestly as the dollar softened amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty and a lack of clear guidance from the Federal Reserve. Rising energy prices and tensions in the Middle East – including threats of strikes on Iranian infrastructure and renewed attacks in the Red Sea – continue to fuel inflation concerns and risk-off sentiment. Markets expect the Fed to hold rates steady next week, while the outlook beyond that remains uncertain. Technically, the pair may see a temporary corrective move towards 1.1500, but the broader bearish structure remains intact, with downside potential towards 1.1260 in the medium term. The direction will largely depend on geopolitical developments and any future signals from the Fed.
ING’s Francesco Pesole expects the ECB to leave rates unchanged but deliver a hawkish hold, with Middle East tensions and rising European gas prices keeping hawks in control. He argues policymakers aim to preserve market pricing of around 45bp of tightening by year-end, likely via a familiar post-meeting media leak, which should support front-end Euro rates even as ING’s near-term EUR/USD bias remains tilted lower toward 1.1380.
"The ECB is widely expected to leave rates unchanged today, but a surprise hike cannot be fully ruled out."
"Our baseline is a hawkish hold. The re-escalation in the Middle East and European gas prices rising faster than oil prices should keep hawkish voices dominant in the governing council, in our view."
"The aim today could be – once again – to preserve market pricing (45bp by year-end) to limit the risk of inflation expectations de-anchoring."
"Achieving that may well require some indication that a September hike remains in play – more likely through a familiar post-meeting media leak than directly in the press conference."
"A central bank meeting would normally be a prime catalyst for EUR/USD to break out of its tight trading range, but we do not expect that to happen today. Our near-term bias remains tilted to the downside, as we believe FX markets are dangerously complacent about developments in the Gulf. Unless the newsflow becomes more constructive, we look for EUR/USD to slip towards 1.1380 in the coming days."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
EUR/USD klesá, protože napětí na Blízkém východě posiluje USD, a to i přes lepší než očekávané průzkumy ZEW. V eurozóně index ekonomického sentimentu vzrostl v červenci na 23,4 z 9,5 v červnu, nad odhadem 11,2. V Německu index ekonomického sentimentu stoupl na 26,3 z 10,5, výrazně nad očekáváním 18. Pár se drží kolem 1,1405.
EUR/USD edges lower on Tuesday as the US Dollar (USD) strengthens amid heightened tensions in the Middle East. At the time of writing, the pair trades around 1.1405, hovering near one-week lows.
Meanwhile, stronger-than-expected ZEW surveys provided little support to the Euro (EUR). Eurozone Economic Sentiment jumped to 23.4 in July from 9.5 in June, beating the forecast of 11.2. Germany’s Economic Sentiment Index climbed to 26.3 from 10.5, well above the market expectation of 18.
The US military carried out a tenth consecutive night of strikes against Iran, while Tehran targeted US military assets across the region. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, trades around 101.15, extending its gains for a fourth straight day.
Diplomatic efforts offer some hope of a pause in the fighting. Mediators have proposed a 10-day ceasefire aimed at reviving last month’s interim US-Iran agreement. However, continued military exchanges have disrupted energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, triggering a rebound in Oil prices and reigniting inflation concerns.
As a result, traders expect the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Federal Reserve (Fed) to keep monetary policy tighter for longer. Both central banks are expected to leave interest rates unchanged at their upcoming policy meetings. However, further rate hikes remain possible if inflation pressures intensify.
Euro holds tight range as ECB repricing supports but fails to spark momentumAnalysts at Scotiabank observe that short-term rates markets “are showing signs of stabilization ahead of Thursday’s ECB decision, consolidating the recent hawkish repricing that has delivered fundamental support to the EUR via yield spreads.”
In terms of policy expectations, Scotiabank highlights that “markets are pricing little change for the July 23 decision, favoring September with 22bpts of tightening currently reflected in OIS with a cumulative 43bpts by December.”
From a technical perspective, the bank’s stance remains “neutral – the EUR’s technicals are offering little in terms of momentum as the RSI shows signs of stabilization just below the neutral threshold at 50.” They add that “recent price action has been narrowly confined to a tight range roughly bound between 1.1380 and 1.1480,” and that they “remain neutral absent a meaningful push toward 1.1500 and the 50-day MA at 1.1516.”
Euro Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the British Pound.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.06%0.41%0.28%0.19%-0.15%0.12%0.25%EUR-0.06%0.35%0.22%0.14%-0.18%0.06%0.20%GBP-0.41%-0.35%-0.11%-0.21%-0.53%-0.28%-0.15%JPY-0.28%-0.22%0.11%-0.08%-0.40%-0.17%-0.02%CAD-0.19%-0.14%0.21%0.08%-0.33%-0.08%0.06%AUD0.15%0.18%0.53%0.40%0.33%0.25%0.40%NZD-0.12%-0.06%0.28%0.17%0.08%-0.25%0.13%CHF-0.25%-0.20%0.15%0.02%-0.06%-0.40%-0.13% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
The EUR/USD pair is seen consolidating during the Asian session on Tuesday and trading just above the 1.1400 mark, or a four-day low touched the previous day. Market participants seem hesitant and keenly await the highly-anticipated European Central Bank (ECB) meeting on Thursday before positioning for the next leg of a directional move.
In the meantime, energy-driven inflation fears bolster US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike bets and support the US Dollar (USD) amid escalating US-Iran tensions. This could act as a headwind for the EUR/USD pair, warranting caution before confirming that the recent pullback from a four-week high, touched last Wednesday, has run its course.
Spot prices keep a bearish tone following last week's failure near the 1.1480-1.1485 region, which coincides with the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA). Moreover, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains below zero with a negative reading, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 40.95 stays under the midline.
Momentum indicators together suggest waning bullish momentum and reinforce the downside bias while the EUR/USD pair remains capped beneath the 200-period SMA. This, in turn, backs the case for an eventual break below the 1.1400 round figure and a further decline towards retesting the year-to-date low, around the 1.1325 region, touched on June 24.
On the topside, initial resistance is located at the 200-period SMA around 1.1480. A sustained move above this level is needed to ease the current bearish pressure and open the way for a more constructive outlook. Nevertheless, the sub-50 RSI and negative MACD suggest that the path of least resistance for the EUR/USD pair remains to the downside.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
EUR/USD 4-hour chart
Economic Indicator ECB Press Conference Following the European Central Bank’s (ECB) economic policy decision, the ECB President gives a press conference regarding monetary policy. The president’s comments may influence the volatility of the Euro (EUR) and determine a short-term positive or negative trend. If the president adopts a hawkish tone it is considered bullish for the EUR, whereas if the tone is dovish the result is usually bearish for the Euro.
Bank of America čeká, že EUR/USD klesne na 1,12 do konce 3. čtvrtletí a do konce roku 2026 se vrátí na 1,15. Důvodem má být výhoda výnosů dolaru a slabší výhled eurozóny.
Foreign exchange analysts at Bank of America forecast the Euro to weaken against the US Dollar over the coming months, projecting EUR/USD will fall to 1.12 in the third quarter before recovering to 1.15 by the end of 2026.
The Euro to Dollar exchange rate (EUR/USD) traded around 1.15 on Monday after recovering from recent lows near 1.12, but remains below this year's highs close to 1.20 as investors continue to favour the higher-yielding US Dollar.
Latest — Exchange Rates:
Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD): 1.141798 (-0.17%)
Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD): 1.345558 (+0.01%)
Dollar to Yen (USD/JPY): 162.41676 (+0.01%)
The recent recovery in EUR/USD has come as the Dollar paused after a strong first half of the year. However, Bank of America believes the broader trend still favours the US currency, arguing that resilient US growth, relatively high Treasury yields and continued demand for Dollar-denominated assets should underpin the greenback.
The bank expects the Federal Reserve to remain more restrictive than many of its peers, preserving the Dollar's yield advantage even if interest rates gradually move lower.
"We expect EUR/USD to finish 2026 at 1.15."
BofA believes the path to that year-end forecast will not be smooth, with further Dollar strength likely over the coming months.
"Our forecasts are for EUR/USD at 1.12 by the end of the third quarter before recovering to 1.15 by year-end."
The bank also points to the Eurozone's weaker growth outlook and greater exposure to higher energy costs as factors that could continue to weigh on the single currency. Although investor positioning has become less negative on the Euro, BofA argues much of the earlier short-covering has already taken place, reducing scope for another sharp rally.
Looking further ahead, the outlook becomes more constructive for the Euro as the Dollar's exceptional performance gradually fades.
"We forecast EUR/USD at 1.20 by end-2027 and 1.22 by end-2028."
BofA believes that longer-term recovery will be driven by a gradual narrowing in growth and interest-rate differentials rather than by a sharp deterioration in the US economy.
Near-Term EUR/USD Forecast: BofA Sees Dollar Yield Advantage Limiting Euro Gains Despite expecting EUR/USD to recover from its projected third-quarter lows, Bank of America believes the Dollar should remain well supported over the remainder of 2026.
"The Dollar's yield advantage should continue to underpin the currency."
For now, the bank expects rallies in EUR/USD to remain limited while US yields stay elevated and capital continues to flow into US assets. It argues that only a more pronounced slowdown in the US economy or a materially faster Federal Reserve easing cycle would be likely to push the pair sustainably above the mid-1.15 area.
EUR/USD se drží poblíž 1,1440, protože sázky na další zvýšení sazeb ze strany ECB vyvažuje poptávka po dolaru jako bezpečném přístavu. Klíčová zůstává zóna resistance 1,1470–1,1500.
EUR/USD traded near 1.1440 after recovering from recent lows, supported by expectations that the European Central Bank could raise interest rates again in September. The euro’s advance remains limited as escalating US-Iran tensions and oil prices above $90 increase safe-haven demand for the US dollar. EUR/USD must clear the 1.1470–1.1500 resistance zone to strengthen its recovery, while 1.1400 remains the first major support level. The EUR/USD exchange rate held near 1.1440 on Monday as traders weighed the prospect of another European Central Bank interest rate increase against renewed demand for the US dollar amid escalating tensions between Washington and Tehran.
The currency pair was trading around 1.1437 at the time of writing, having pulled back from last week’s high near 1.1480. The euro remains supported by expectations that the ECB will retain a hawkish bias at this week’s policy meeting, even though policymakers are widely expected to leave borrowing costs unchanged.
However, the dollar has regained some ground as the US-Iran conflict intensifies and disruption to oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz pushes energy prices higher. Brent crude rose above $90 a barrel, reviving inflation concerns and strengthening the case for the Federal Reserve to maintain higher interest rates.
Why Is EUR/USD Rising Today? The euro has found modest support from changing expectations for ECB monetary policy.
The ECB is expected to keep its deposit rate unchanged at 2.25% when officials meet on Thursday. Nevertheless, a Reuters poll found that most economists expect another rate increase later this year, with September emerging as the most likely timing.
That outlook has become more credible following the renewed increase in energy prices. Eurozone inflation eased to 2.8% in June but remains above the ECB’s 2% target, while rising oil and gas costs threaten to create another wave of price pressure.
Consequently, the euro has retained support even as the ECB prepares to pause after its previous rate increase. Traders will pay close attention to President Christine Lagarde’s comments for any indication that September remains a live option.
Will the ECB Raise Interest Rates in September? A September rate increase is increasingly becoming the central question for the EUR/USD forecast.
Around 70% of economists surveyed by Reuters expect the ECB to raise rates once more before the end of 2026. However, policymakers must balance renewed inflation risks against a weak eurozone economy, which expanded by only 0.2% during the latest quarter.
The ECB’s challenge is that higher energy prices can simultaneously lift inflation and weaken economic activity. Businesses face higher operating costs, while households have less disposable income available for other goods and services.
A clearly hawkish message from Lagarde could help EUR/USD challenge 1.1500. Conversely, a more cautious tone that emphasises weak growth could encourage traders to reduce expectations for a September move and weigh on the euro.
How Are US-Iran Tensions Affecting EUR/USD? Escalating hostilities between the United States and Iran are preventing a stronger euro recovery.
The United States carried out a ninth consecutive night of strikes, while Iran warned that the Strait of Hormuz would remain unsafe for oil, gas and petrochemical shipments. Ship traffic through the strategically important waterway has declined sharply, contributing to Brent crude’s move above $90 and WTI’s rise beyond $84.
The development creates two headwinds for EUR/USD.
First, geopolitical uncertainty increases demand for the US dollar as investors move toward highly liquid safe-haven assets. Second, Europe is particularly exposed to imported energy costs, meaning a sustained oil shock could weaken the eurozone growth outlook even while forcing the ECB to keep monetary policy restrictive. The dollar has therefore remained resilient despite recent evidence that US inflation had begun to moderate. Markets are also pricing an increased possibility of another Federal Reserve rate rise before the end of the year.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Can the Euro Break Above 1.1500? The one-hour chart shows EUR/USD consolidating near 1.1437 after its retreat from the 1.1480 area. Price is hovering around the middle Bollinger Band near 1.1436, indicating that neither buyers nor sellers currently have firm control.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator is beginning to stabilise after turning negative during the latest pullback. However, momentum remains limited, suggesting that the pair may continue trading sideways unless a fresh fundamental catalyst emerges.
Immediate resistance is located between 1.1445 and 1.1470, where the upper Bollinger Band and recent intraday highs are concentrated. A sustained move above 1.1470 would expose the psychologically important 1.1500 level.
A close above 1.1500 would improve the short-term structure and could open a move toward 1.1580 and 1.1620.
On the downside, 1.1425 provides initial support near the lower Bollinger Band. The more important level is 1.1400, which has repeatedly attracted buyers. A decisive break beneath 1.1400 would weaken the recovery and bring 1.1375 back into focus, followed by 1.1320.
EUR/USD Outlook Ahead of the ECB Rate Decision The immediate EUR/USD outlook hinges on whether the ECB validates market expectations for another rate increase in September.
A hawkish policy statement could help the euro test 1.1470 and 1.1500, particularly if Lagarde signals that higher energy prices pose a material threat to inflation. However, the dollar is likely to remain supported while the US-Iran conflict disrupts energy markets and drives investors toward safety.
For now, EUR/USD appears caught between a more hawkish ECB outlook and a stronger geopolitical bid for the dollar. That leaves the pair vulnerable to further consolidation until Thursday’s ECB decision provides a clearer policy signal.
Why is EUR/USD rising today?
EUR/USD is finding support as investors expect the European Central Bank to retain a hawkish stance and potentially raise interest rates again in September. However, gains remain limited by safe-haven demand for the US dollar.
How will the ECB interest rate decision affect EUR/USD?
A hawkish ECB decision would likely support the euro by strengthening expectations for higher interest rates. A cautious statement focused on weak economic growth could weigh on EUR/USD and bring the 1.1400 support level back into focus.
The Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate is trading around 1.1440 after recovering from June lows near 1.1325, but Goldman Sachs believes options markets are signalling renewed downside risks for the pair.
EUR/USD has remained relatively stable through July, gaining around 0.3% so far this month after falling more than 2% in June.
Goldman Sachs highlights developments in the options market, particularly swaptions, as a warning that investors may be preparing for greater downside exposure in the Euro-Dollar pair.
The bank argues that while EUR/USD has been supported by a period of Dollar weakness and reduced expectations for aggressive Federal Reserve tightening, the balance of risks has become less favourable for the Euro.
A key concern is that markets may have become too comfortable with the recent range-bound environment. Renewed volatility, changes in interest-rate expectations or a return of Dollar demand could quickly challenge EUR/USD support.
Goldman Sachs continues to monitor the interaction between rates markets and currency positioning, with options pricing suggesting investors are increasingly willing to protect against a move lower.
The Euro also faces challenges from the broader macro backdrop. While expectations for further European Central Bank tightening have provided some support, growth concerns and energy-related risks remain potential headwinds.
With EUR/USD currently holding close to the 1.14 area, Goldman Sachs sees the options market as highlighting the possibility that the next significant move could be lower rather than a continuation of the recent recovery.
The Euro to Dollar exchange rate is trading around 1.1440 after remaining relatively resilient through July, but HSBC expects renewed US Dollar strength to weigh on EUR/USD over the coming months.
HSBC argues that the recent Dollar recovery reflects a combination of resilient US growth, interest-rate expectations and the relative attractiveness of US assets.
The bank expects the Federal Reserve to remain cautious on easing policy, while the Eurozone faces weaker growth prospects and ongoing uncertainty linked to energy prices.
HSBC’s outlook is based on a view that the Dollar’s recent weakness will prove temporary as markets refocus on rate differentials and the strength of the US economy.
The bank highlights that geopolitical risks and higher energy prices remain particularly challenging for Europe, with renewed pressure on gas supplies posing a threat to Eurozone growth and inflation.
According to HSBC, the Euro’s recent resilience does not change the broader outlook, with the currency still vulnerable if investors return to favouring US assets.
The bank sees EUR/USD falling towards 1.10 as the Dollar gradually regains ground, with the widening contrast between US economic performance and European challenges expected to remain a key driver.
However, HSBC acknowledges that the path lower may not be straightforward, with periods of Dollar consolidation possible as markets continue to assess Federal Reserve policy and global risk conditions.
EUR/USD po slabší americké CPI roste o více než 0,6 % v seanci a drží se nad 1,1400. Slabší inflace stlačila výnosy amerických dluhopisů i poptávku po dolaru. Meziroční CPI v USA vyšlo na 3,5 %.
As the trading week begins, the euro is once again showing a short-term bullish bias after the release of inflation data in the United States, which has helped ease strength around the U.S. dollar.
For now, EUR/USD is up more than 0.6% during the session and continues to trade above the 1.1400 level. This buying pressure is partly due to the fact that the new inflation data has triggered corrections in the U.S. bond market, a dynamic that does not favor the dollar.
If this behavior continues, relevant buying pressure could remain present in EUR/USD movements over the next few trading sessions.
U.S. CPI day arrives During the session, CPI data in the United States was released. Although an annual reading was expected, the official figure surprised to the downside and came in at 3.5%.
This figure marks an important change in the U.S. price dynamic, as it represents one of the most relevant declines of the year. In addition, June inflation moved away from the annual high of 4.2% and broke the upward trend that had been present in annual inflation levels since March.
With this result, inflation is once again moving somewhat closer to the central bank’s annual 2.00% target.
Source: TradingEconomics
This event is relevant for Federal Reserve expectations, as a consistent slowdown in inflation could prevent the view of a fully aggressive central bank from materializing over the coming months.
As inflation declines, the need to keep interest rates higher for a prolonged period also decreases. This perspective has started to be reflected in the 10-year U.S. bond market, where yields have shown some correction amid lower expectations of central bank aggressiveness.
After the upward trend seen last week, yields have started to move back below the 4.6% area, showing relevant weakness that had not been observed in recent sessions.
Source: TradingEconomics
The key point is that, as bond yields show weakness, the relative appeal of these fixed-income instruments compared to other markets may also decline. This could reduce the need to maintain consistent demand for dollars in order to access these types of assets.
This decline in bond yields coincides with weaker demand for U.S. dollars. This behavior is reflected in the DXY index, which measures the dollar’s strength against its main peers. The index is now showing a relevant decline and is approaching the 100-point reference area. This indicates that demand for dollars has started to weaken in the short term.
Source: TradingEconomics
With all of this in mind, the dynamic has been favorable for the euro. The release of the inflation data created renewed weakness in dollar demand, which could be allowing the euro to recover ground in the short term.
If the U.S. bond market fails to show attractive growth in yields, the dollar could continue to lose ground. In that scenario, EUR/USD could maintain relevant buying pressure over the next few trading sessions.
Technical outlook for EUR/USD
Source: StoneX, Tradingview
Recent recovery becomes relevant: Although a long bearish trend line has been present for months in average EUR/USD movements, the recent price recovery has started to weaken the long-term selling bias. This move could be opening room for a more neutral phase on the chart. Even though the bearish trend line has not yet been broken, price could start to stop forming new lows and enter a more consistent range. If this effect continues over the next few sessions and selling pressure fails to stabilize again, the continuation of the bearish trend line on the daily chart could start to come under pressure.
RSI: Now, the RSI has moved back toward the neutral 50 area. This suggests a balance between buying and selling impulses in the market. Rather than pointing to a clear directional move, the indicator highlights a possible phase of indecision that could remain relevant over the next few sessions.
MACD: A similar dynamic can be seen in the MACD, whose histogram remains very close to the neutral 0 level. This suggests balance in the average strength of short-term moving averages. This reading may also reflect relevant neutrality in short-term price movements.
Key levels:
1.15127 – Relevant resistance: This important high level coincides with a retracement area from previous weeks and also with the barrier formed by the 50-period moving average. Price movements attempting to break above this level could start to put the long bearish trend line at risk and open room for a more dominant buying bias over the coming weeks.
1.14253 – Near-term barrier: This level corresponds to the most relevant neutral area now. Price movements too close to this level could continue to highlight significant indecision and even open room for a possible short-term sideways range over the next few sessions.
1.12851 – Definitive support: This level is associated with a neutral area observed in May 2025 and now acts as the main support to watch. If price continues to move closer to this area, the selling bias would be reinforced and the possibility of an extension of the bearish trend line as the dominant chart structure over the coming weeks would increase.
Written by Julian Pineda, CFA, CMT – Market Analyst
ING varuje, že EUR/USD zatím drží krátkodobý úrokový diferenciál, ale další růst cen energií by mohl pár stlačit k 1,10. Největší hrozbou je podle banky prudký růst cen plynu a slabší vyhlídky na další zvyšování sazeb ECB.
ING’s Francesco Pesole argues that the EUR/USD short-term rate differential is currently supporting the Euro as Gulf tensions rise, helped by a recovery in EUR front-end rates. However, he doubts this can last if Oil and Gas prices keep climbing, given limited scope for more ECB hikes and worsening eurozone terms of trade. ING warns that EUR/USD could risk a move toward 1.10 under higher energy prices.
Euro buoyed by rates for now"The EUR:USD short-term rate differential is – for now – helping to keep EUR/USD afloat in this Gulf re-escalation. The two-year swap rate gap has re-tightened around 15bp since the start of July, primarily because the rebound in oil prices happened at a time when ECB hike bets were dwindling, leaving more upside room to recover for EUR front-end rates."
"We aren’t convinced this rate gap can offer sustainable support to EUR/USD if energy prices continue to rise though."
"Markets may find it harder to price in more than two ECB hikes by year-end (now, 46bp) considering the less hawkish stance by ECB officials of late, and the medium-term negative implications of an energy crisis – combined with Fed tightening – for the EUR, tend to outweigh the positive of EUR hikes."
"The spike in gas prices is particularly concerning, as it weighs on the eurozone’s terms of trade more than oil."
"In a scenario where Brent returns to $90-100/bl and TTF around €55-60/MWh, a move to 1.10 becomes a tangible risk in EUR/USD."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Růst cen ropy a plynu po eskalaci na Blízkém východě podporuje dolar a tlačí EUR/USD dolů. Pár může v nejbližších dnech a týdnech mířit k 1.1350 až 1.1300.
Energy prices are once again setting the tone for currency markets, with the renewed tensions in the Middle East reinforcing the dollar’s appeal while weighing on low-yielding and energy-importing currencies. As oil and natural gas prices climb, investors are becoming increasingly reluctant to price out further Fed tightening, providing the greenback with another tailwind. This is keeping the near-term EUR/USD forecast tilted to the downside.
Dollar remains bid as oil climbs on fresh escalation At the weekend, the US launched fresh strikes on dozens of Iranian military targets after Iran attacked commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Targets reportedly included air-defense systems, radar installations, missile and drone capabilities, and naval assets. In retaliation, Iran said it targeted US military bases in Jordan, Bahrain, and Kuwait, as well as radar systems in Oman.
The latest exchanges mark a significant intensification of tensions between Washington and Tehran. Last week, US President Donald Trump declared that the US-Iran ceasefire was “over” and sharply criticized Iran’s leadership. What it means for the markets is that the re-escalation has disrupted maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. No commercial vessels have transited the waterway since Sunday evening, according to reports tracking shipping data. In turn, oil prices have surged higher again.
With crude oil rising once again, the obvious question is: what does this mean for the US dollar?
Given that the Fed’s new chairman has made it clear that he wants to keep inflation under control, another spike in oil prices is likely to reinforce expectations that US interest rates will stay higher for longer. Even if some of the near-term economic data softens, persistently high energy prices would make it difficult for the Fed to adopt a more dovish stance.
That is one of the reasons why we’re seeing the US dollar regain momentum, particularly against currencies whose economies are heavily reliant on imported energy, such as the euro and the Japanese yen.
Should Iran succeed in disrupting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz for al lengthy period of time once again, the US is likely to be viewed as relatively insulated thanks to its energy independence. At the same time, higher oil prices would add to inflationary pressures, making it harder for the Fed not to signal intentions of policy tightening.
US CPI and Warsh testimony in focus The focus now turns to a busy week for US economic data and Federal Reserve officials. Tuesday’s inflation report will be closely watched, with headline CPI expected to ease 0.1% on a monthly basis, lowering the year-over-year rate to 3.8% from 4.2%. However, firmer energy prices and sticky core inflation, still hovering around 2.9% year-on-year, suggest it remains premature to rule out at least one rate increase before the end of the year.
Markets will also hear from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh as he begins two days of testimony before Congress. Investors will be looking for any clues on the policy outlook. With energy prices firming and little evidence that the US economy is slowing enough to offset inflation risks, Warsh is unlikely to sound dovish at all. So, the fundamental backdrop continues to favour the dollar.
That leaves low-yielding, energy-dependent currencies such as the euro and the yen particularly vulnerable, meaning that the EUR/USD forecast is tilted to the downside. Of particular concern for Europe is the renewed strength in natural gas prices, especially with inventories still relatively low and demand rising (for air cooling systems) amid elevated summer temperatures.
Technical EUR/USD forecast and key levels to watch That combination leaves the euro exposed. In the near term, the EUR/USD could drift back towards the 1.1350 region, with a follow-up move into the 1.1300 area looking increasingly plausible over the coming days and weeks.
Source: TradingView.com There is also a bearish flag pattern to consider, too. If there EUR/USD breaks below the support trend of the pattern, which is what I expect, then at the very least I’d anticipate a retest of the recent lows around 1.1324.
Below that the 1.1300 area would come into focus. This level also lines up with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension of the major advance we saw between March and April. Given what’s happening in the oil market, together with the prospect of a more hawkish Fed, the path of least resistance for EUR/USD still appears to be to the downside.
Resistance is seen around 1.1450, followed by the 1.1480-1.1500 region.
Meanwhile, the European data calendar is relatively quiet this week, meaning short-term moves in the euro are likely to be driven more by developments in energy markets and shifts in US rate expectations than by domestic fundamentals.
EUR/USD slábne, protože napětí mezi USA a Íránem zvyšuje poptávku po dolaru a tlačí výnosy amerických dluhopisů výš. Trh teď sleduje CPI v USA; nad 1,1370 je podpora, pod ní leží 1,1350.
EUR/USD has slipped as renewed US-Iran tensions strengthened safe-haven demand for the US dollar and pushed Treasury yields higher. A break below 1.1370 could expose the pair to 1.1350 and 1.1300, while recovery attempts remain capped near the 1.1475 to 1.1500 area. US inflation data is the next major catalyst, with a hotter CPI reading likely to reinforce dollar strength and increase pressure on the euro. EUR/USD came under renewed selling pressure on Monday as fresh military exchanges between the United States and Iran revived demand for the US dollar and lifted global energy prices.
The pair struggled to build on last week’s recovery and moved back toward the lower end of its recent range as investors prepared for the latest US Consumer Price Index report. Higher crude oil prices have added to inflation concerns, pushing US Treasury yields higher and strengthening expectations that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates restrictive for longer.
The Dollar Index has recovered toward the 101.00 area after ending the previous week lower. For EUR/USD, the stronger greenback has brought the 1.1370 support level back into focus, with traders assessing whether the pair can stabilize or extend its decline toward 1.1350 and 1.1300.
Why Is EUR/USD Falling Today? The latest weakness in EUR/USD reflects a combination of geopolitical risk, higher oil prices and rising US bond yields.
Fresh attacks between the US and Iran over the weekend raised concerns about the future of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran said the key waterway had been closed again, while Washington maintained that commercial traffic could continue.
The conflicting claims sent crude oil prices sharply higher and revived concerns that another energy shock could keep global inflation elevated.
Higher oil prices tend to support the US dollar during periods of market stress. They can also place additional pressure on the euro because the Eurozone relies heavily on imported energy, leaving the region more exposed to rising fuel costs.
US CPI Could Decide the Dollar’s Next Move The US inflation report is likely to become the most important driver for EUR/USD in the near term.
A stronger-than-expected CPI reading would reinforce expectations that the Federal Reserve may need to maintain higher interest rates or consider additional tightening later this year. That outcome would likely push Treasury yields and the dollar higher, increasing the risk of EUR/USD falling through its current support zone.
A softer inflation report would create a different setup. It could reduce pressure on the Fed to tighten policy further and allow EUR/USD to recover some of its recent losses.
However, the impact of softer inflation could be limited if oil prices continue rising or geopolitical tensions worsen.
Euro Recovery Struggles Near 1.1500 EUR/USD recently recovered from lows around 1.1325 and moved above 1.1420, but the advance stalled before the pair could establish a sustained move through the 1.1475 to 1.1500 region.
That failure suggests sellers remain active whenever the euro approaches higher levels.
The pair now faces an important test around 1.1370. A clear move below that level would increase the likelihood of a decline toward 1.1350, followed by the June low near 1.1325. If selling pressure persists, the psychological 1.1300 level could become the next target.
On the upside, EUR/USD would need to recover above 1.1450 before challenging 1.1475 and 1.1500 again. A sustained break through 1.1500 would weaken the immediate bearish outlook and could support a broader recovery toward 1.1580.
ECB and Fed Policy Expectations Remain Divided Interest-rate expectations on both sides of the Atlantic continue to shape the EUR/USD outlook.
The Federal Reserve remains focused on inflation after stronger energy prices complicated the outlook for consumer prices. Recent weakness in US employment reduced expectations of immediate tightening, but the latest geopolitical escalation has prevented markets from fully dismissing the possibility of another rate increase.
In Europe, softer core inflation has reduced expectations of further European Central Bank tightening. That leaves the euro with less policy support, particularly if US inflation remains elevated and Treasury yields continue climbing.
Comments from Federal Reserve and ECB officials will therefore remain important as traders look for any change in the policy outlook.
EUR/USD Outlook The near-term EUR/USD price forecast remains cautious as the pair struggles to hold its recent recovery.
The US dollar is benefiting from safe-haven demand, rising oil prices and higher Treasury yields, while the euro faces renewed pressure from Europe’s exposure to imported energy costs.
A break below 1.1370 would put 1.1350 and 1.1300 within reach. However, softer US inflation or an easing of Middle East tensions could weaken the dollar and help EUR/USD return toward 1.1450 and 1.1500.
For now, US CPI and developments surrounding the Strait of Hormuz are likely to determine whether the pair stabilizes or begins another leg lower.
Why is EUR/USD falling today?
EUR/USD is falling as renewed US-Iran tensions increase safe-haven demand for the US dollar. Rising oil prices and Treasury yields have also strengthened expectations that US interest rates may remain elevated.
What are the key EUR/USD levels to watch?
The main support levels are 1.1370, 1.1350 and 1.1300. Resistance is located near 1.1450, followed by 1.1475 and 1.1500.
How could US CPI affect EUR/USD?
A hotter US CPI reading could strengthen the dollar and push EUR/USD lower by increasing expectations of tighter Federal Reserve policy. Softer inflation could weaken the greenback and support a euro recovery.
Goldman Sachs snížila šestiměsíční i dvanáctiměsíční výhled pro EUR/USD na 1,12 z předchozích 1,18 a 1,20. Banka čeká, že dolar zůstane vůči euru silnější.
The Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate is trading around 1.1415 after losing more than 2% during June and struggling to build a sustained recovery in July.
Goldman Sachs has lowered its six- and 12-month EUR/USD forecasts to 1.12, compared with previous targets of 1.18 and 1.20 respectively.
The bank expects a divided US Dollar environment, with the Greenback likely to strengthen further against lower-yielding currencies such as the Euro while losing ground against selected higher-carry currencies.
According to Goldman Sachs, the forecast revisions reflect an “ongoing divided Dollar environment” rather than an expectation of uniform Dollar gains across the foreign exchange market.
The bank expects US interest rates to remain at 3.50-3.75% for the rest of 2026, while resilient economic growth and persistent inflation should keep US yields relatively attractive.
Goldman Sachs forecasts US growth of 2.0% in 2026 and expects core PCE inflation to end the year at 3.0%, reducing the case for rapid Federal Reserve easing.
These conditions should continue to favour the Dollar against the Euro, with Goldman Sachs now expecting EUR/USD to fall towards 1.12 over both the six- and 12-month horizons.
EUR/USD klesl zpět k 1,1415, protože HSBC očekává další tlak na euro kvůli vyšším úrokovým sazbám v USA po delší dobu. Banka říká, že rozhodující jsou opět úrokové diferenciály.
The Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate has slipped back towards 1.1415 as investors continue to favour the US Dollar following resilient US economic data and expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates higher for longer.
HSBC believes EUR/USD is likely to face renewed downside pressure as markets shift their focus back to interest-rate differentials.
The bank notes that geopolitical concerns in the Middle East have eased, reducing one source of support for the Dollar. However, it argues that renewed disruption to shipping routes could quickly restore safe-haven demand for the US currency.
According to HSBC, firm US labour market conditions and sticky inflation continue to justify a cautious approach from the Federal Reserve, keeping longer-term yield support firmly behind the Dollar.
The bank also highlights that Eurozone inflation has cooled, but underlying price pressures remain elevated, leaving the European Central Bank in a difficult position.
HSBC argues that "the EUR loses out on fundamentals", with interest-rate differentials now re-emerging as the dominant driver of EUR/USD.
The bank adds that the outlook could deteriorate further if energy prices rise again, warning that renewed disruption in the Middle East would increase stagflation risks for the Eurozone and add fresh pressure on the single currency.
The Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate has steadied near 1.1425 after recovering from June's lows, although Rabobank believes the single currency has lost much of the momentum that drove its rally earlier this year.
The bank expects EUR/USD to trade broadly sideways over the next one to three months before regaining a modest upward bias later in the year.
Rabobank argues that optimism surrounding Germany's decision to loosen its debt brake has faded as investors refocus on weaker Eurozone growth, higher energy costs and lingering competitiveness challenges.
According to the bank, last year's fiscal shift in Germany "was no panacea", with structural reforms still needed to tackle sluggish productivity and weak long-term growth.
Rabobank also notes that markets are already fully priced for another European Central Bank rate increase this year, limiting the Euro's ability to gain further support from monetary policy.
While the US Dollar continues to benefit from a resilient economy, the bank believes expectations for additional Federal Reserve tightening have become excessive and should gradually unwind.
Even so, Rabobank expects investors to remain reluctant to rebuild large long Euro positions in the coming months after the currency's strong performance over the past year.
The bank believes investors will remain cautious in the near term. According to Rabobank, "the market is likely to be reluctant to rebuild large, long positions in the EUR in the months ahead."
However, it also argues that expectations for further Federal Reserve tightening have become excessive. As the bank puts it, "we expect sideways trading in EUR/USD on a 3-month view and a modest upward bias to emerge in the currency pair on a 3-to-6-month view."
EUR/USD se drží těsně nad 1,1400, protože nové napětí mezi USA a Íránem a opatrnost před zápisem z jednání FOMC brzdí euro. Trh zatím reaguje jen mírně.
The Euro (EUR) shows marginal losses against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday and has returned to levels just above 1.1400 during the European trading session after rejection at 1.1430. A new round of hostilities in Iran and investors’ cautiousness ahead of the release of the minutes of the latest Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting are keeping Euro bulls in check.
US President Donald Trump affirmed earlier on Wednesday that the ceasefire is over and that, in his view, the memorandum of understanding is no longer in effect. These comments follow a fresh bout of reciprocal attacks between the US and Iran, and the revocation of the US authorisation to sell Iranian Oil.
The market reaction has been tame so far, as investors continue to view these events as manoeuvres to gain leverage in the negotiation process. Beyond that, investors remain wary of placing large directional bets on the USD ahead of the release of the minutes of June’s Fed meeting, eager for further insight into the central bank’s monetary policy plans.
Technical Analysis: A potential bearish flag is in progress
EUR/USD trades at 1.1405, at the bottom of the immediate ascending channel, that might turn out to be a bearish flag formation. Momentum indicators in four-hour charts are turning bearish, with the Relative Strength Index (14) easing toward 44, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) slipping back into slightly negative territory, suggesting that bullish attempts are losing traction.
A break of the channel bottom and Tuesday's low at 1.1400 would boost expectations of a bearish flag formation that would be confirmed below the late June lows in the 1.1325-1.1330 area. The pattern's measured target is just below the late May 2025 low, at 1.1210.
On the topside, Tuesday's highs around 1.1459 and last week's trading peak in the area of 1.1475 are likely to challenge bulls in case of a positive reaction. An unlikely breach of those levels would clear the path towards the mid-June highs, near 1.1620.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
US Dollar Price This week The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.24%0.05%0.70%-0.24%0.23%0.24%0.54%EUR-0.24%-0.22%0.43%-0.52%0.00%-0.03%0.24%GBP-0.05%0.22%0.54%-0.30%0.23%0.19%0.45%JPY-0.70%-0.43%-0.54%-0.96%-0.35%-0.41%-0.19%CAD0.24%0.52%0.30%0.96%0.59%0.55%0.76%AUD-0.23%-0.01%-0.23%0.35%-0.59%-0.05%0.22%NZD-0.24%0.03%-0.19%0.41%-0.55%0.05%0.27%CHF-0.54%-0.24%-0.45%0.19%-0.76%-0.22%-0.27% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
EUR/USD mírně klesá kolem 1,1430, protože dolar lehce posiluje a trh čeká na zápis z červnového zasedání FOMC. Pár zůstává pod 20denním EMA na 1,1460, což drží krátkodobě medvědí tón.
The EUR/USD pair trades marginally lower at around 1.1433 during the European trading session on Tuesday. The major currency pair faces slight selling pressure as the US Dollar (USD) edges up, while investors await the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes of the June policy meeting on Wednesday.
At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades slightly higher to near 100.92.
Investors keep an eye on the FOMC Minutes to identify reasons probably responsible for restricting policymakers from delivering forward guidance on monetary policy decisions.
In the June monetary policy press conference, Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh said that policymakers agreed that the “so-called forward guidance is not well suited to the current policy conjuncture.
Like the Fed, officials from the European Central Bank (ECB) also appear not in favor of delivering remarks regarding the monetary policy outlook.
Over the weekend, ECB Governing Council member Emmanuel Moulin also denied providing cues regarding the central bank’s decision in July, while speaking at the Rencontres Economiques conference in Aix-en-Provence. “We are not doing forward guidance so I won’t say what we will do in July,” Moulin said.
EUR/USD technical analysis
EUR/USD trades lower at around 1.1430, keeping a bearish near-term tone as the pair holds beneath the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 1.1460. The fact that price remains under this short-term trend gauge suggests rallies are still being capped, while the Relative Strength Index (14) at 41.9 stays below the neutral 50 line, hinting at lingering downside pressure rather than a decisive recovery.
On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the 20-day EMA around 1.1460, and a sustained break above this level would be needed to ease the current bearish bias and open the way for a stronger rebound. Looking up, the pair could advance to the psychological level of 1.1500 if it breaks above the moving average.
On the downside, the yearly low around 1.1330 will be the key support zone; a break below it would expose the pair to the 29 May 2025 low at 1.1210.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Euro FAQs The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur notes EUR/USD has been stuck between 1.1350 and 1.1450 since mid-June, with few catalysts expected over the summer. He highlights that the European Central Bank (ECB) is likely to delay its next rate hike to September and that the Federal Reserve (Fed) is also unlikely to deliver clear signals, which should limit US Dollar (USD) strength and gradually support the Euro (EUR) into next year.
Rangebound pair awaits autumn drivers"Since mid-June, EUR/USD has been fluctuating between 1.1350 and 1.1450, and one is slowly getting the feeling that this could continue for a while longer."
"It therefore seems probable that the ECB will leave the key interest rate unchanged, while at the same time making it clear that another rate hike is possible but not yet certain."
"As for the Fed, the market is currently still pricing in slightly more than one rate hike by year-end. In September, Kevin Warsh will have to say a bit more than just “task force” when asked about the economic situation. We continue to expect that he will not raise interest rates - a development that is likely to weigh on the dollar."
"And the closer we get to next year, the stronger the support for the euro is likely to become. Yesterday’s German industrial orders data showed that a cyclical recovery is slowly taking shape. Structural reforms and expansionary fiscal policy should also help Germany and Europe grow faster next year."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
GBP/USD se drží beze změny kolem 1,3352, protože ústup britského politického rizika vyrovnal obnovenou poptávku po USD. Dolar podpořil i nákup po poklesu po pátečních datech z trhu práce.
The Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate traded in a narrow range on Monday as easing UK political uncertainty offset renewed demand for the US Dollar following last week's sharp selloff.
At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at $1.3352, little changed on the day.
Latest — Exchange Rates:
Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD): 1.335559 (+0.03%)
Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD): 1.141696 (-0.17%)
Dollar to Yen (USD/JPY): 162.33951 (+0.61%)
DAILY RECAP:
The US Dollar attracted support on Monday as US markets reopened following the long Independence Day weekend.
The ‘Greenback’ seemed to have entered oversold conditions following its sharp losses in the wake of last week’s non-farm payrolls report, which reported an unexpectedly large slowdown in job creation.
Therefore, some price-conscious investors were willing to buy the dip, lifting the US Dollar.
Meanwhile, the latest ISM services PMI printed in line with expectations, easing from 54.5 in May to 54 in June. Although this was a slight softening of activity, it still represented a healthy expansion in the US services sector.
Meanwhile, the Pound (GBP) held strong on Monday as investors continued to scale back the political risk premium that has weighed on Sterling in recent weeks.
With MP Andy Burnham widely expected to become the next Prime Minister, markets appear increasingly confident that the UK will avoid a lengthy and disruptive Labour leadership contest.
Burnham has moved to reassure investors since launching his leadership bid, pledging to maintain the government’s existing fiscal rules while also outlining ambitious plans to support the economy.
This has been well received by GBP investors, with Sterling finding support as concerns over UK political instability continue to recede.
Near-Term GBP/USD Forecast: US Employment Data to Support the Dollar? Looking forward, high-impact data is thin on the ground on Tuesday, with the US weekly ADP employment change figure being the only release of note. This mid-tier data could support the US Dollar, if it reports healthy growth in US private employment.
Elsewhere, market risk appetite could influence the pairing. The safe-haven US Dollar would likely benefit if the market mood sours, while the increasingly risk-sensitive Pound could attract support if sentiment brightens. Any shifts in risk appetite could see GBP/USD waver.
